Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State OVER 56.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -106 | 245 h 30 m | Show |
219 Virginia Tech at Florida State Getting this one up early as the line has been moving, and we want to lock this one in before it continues. We expect this Hokies defense to take a step back this year. The defensive backfield has already suffered attrition since spring practice. We also expect this offense to be better this season after taking a 6.8 peg drop a season ago. But the real reason for this play is the massive change of pace expected in Tallahassee this season. Jimbo Fisher preferred a slow pace to his offense which really made no sense considering he out talented just about every opponent on the schedule. When you have the better athletes you want to have more plays to exploit that fact. By slowing the pace all you are doing is giving the opposition a chance to stay in the game. Enter Willie Taggart who wants to hike the ball as fast as he can. It keeps the defense from substituting and gives his superior team a better chance to shine. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 peg last year. After averaging 37 mpg the prior six seasons. Let’s get this one in now before this thing rises any further. PLAY OVER |
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09-03-18 | Angels v. Rangers -106 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
976 LA Angels at Texas Shoemaker & Springs Matt Shoemaker finally makes his second start of the season after not pitching in the majors since March. The line is based on him going somewhat deep into the game, but we expect this to be a bullpen game for the Angels. Exactly as it will be for the Rangers. Our numbers show the Rangers with a 10% starter advantage, with a 6% bullpen edge. The host also has a 6% offensive advantage in this one. Very cheap price on the host today. PLAY TEXAS |
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09-01-18 | Navy -10 v. Hawaii | Top | 41-59 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
215 Navy at Hawaii The midshipmen are coming off a down 7-6 season, their worst record since 2011. While only nine starters return, that’s a regular occurrence with the military teams. After losing 6 of 7 to end the season, Ken Niumatalolo and company should rebound nicely. Hawaii off a 3-9 season shocked Colorado State in the opener. But we believe most of that had to do with the Rams head coach not being healthy enough to coach the practices. Keep in mind that Hawaii last year was outscored by 11.1 ppg, and had lost 9 of 10 to end the season. The Warriors permitted 5.3 ypr each of the last two seasons. We see the Navy running game wearing out this very questionable Hawaii defense. Hawaii is 4-15-1 ATS at home the past three seasons. This home field advantage is very low. PLAY NAVY |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 55-42 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
144 Syracuse at Western Michigan The Orange had 15 and 18 returning starters the last two seasons and managed to win just four games each year. The team brings back 14 starters this season. While the team will have veterans, keep in mind the Orangemen haven’t posted a winning record since 2013. In the past three seasons Syracuse has a combined two wins away from home. Western Michigan went 13-1 two years ago and fell to 6-6 last year under Tim Lester. The Broncos know this Syracuse squad very well as not only the head coach, but the offensive and defensive coordinators recently coached at Syracuse. Just two years ago Lester was the quarterback coach for Orangemen signal caller Eric Dungey. Here we get a home team that is 17-6 in Waldo Stadium the past four seasons, that knows the opposition better than anyone. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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08-30-18 | Angels v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
966 Los Angeles at Houston Heaney & Verlander Major starter edge for Verlander as we rate him 31% higher than Heaney. The Angels starter has hit a wall as of late as his innings count is much higher than the two previous injury prone years. The Astros bullpen also dominates with the same 31% advantage. And the host has a 12% hitting edge. Instead of laying the high price on the money line we feel very confident the Astros win this one going away. PLAY HOUSTON -1 1/2 |
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08-30-18 | Twins +195 v. Indians | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 55 m | Show |
961 Minnesota at Cleveland Odorizzi & Clevenger This line is way too high by our numbers. Cleveland does have a 13% starting pitcher advantage, but that’s the only major edge for the Tribe. The Indians put Miller on the DL again, and Cody Allen has lost all confidence. The hitting is virtually identical. Odorizzi has shown better numbers on the road, while so has Clevenger. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-25-18 | Rangers v. Giants -141 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
928 Texas at San Francisco Perez & Suarez Despite the win/loss records of the starters, we have a pitching mismatch by our numbers. Clear data sports has the Giants’ starter rated 39% higher than Perez. The San Francisco bullpen has a 15% edge and the offense a 17% advantage. Many times we agree with the line moves on games but this one is an exception. The opener was in the correct ballpark. Perez has battled through injuries throughout his career and has never lived up to the hype. He has a 6.82 ERA on the road this season with a whopping 1.91 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .362. While he’s obviously not that bad, that just tells you how he has struggled this season. Andrew Suarez has been much better at home than on the road. He owns a 3.79 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .247. His strikeout to walk ratio is almost twice as high at home than on the road. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-24-18 | Cardinals -105 v. Rockies | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
959 St Louis at Colorado Mikolas & Senzatela Major pitching advantage for the Cards here as Mikolas rates 30% better than his mound counterpart. Colorado owns a 4% bullpen edge, while the Cards have a 2% offensive advantage. Mikolas has a perfect 7-0 mark on the road this year. With a solid 3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .241 opponent batting average. Antonio Senzatela has pitched better at home this year with a 3.00 ERA. But his whip is high at 1.43 and his opponent batting average is .277. So don’t let that ERA fool you as he has permitted just one home run at Coors in 21 innings on the mound. We really though the Cards would be a sizable favorite tonight, this is a bargain price. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-23-18 | White Sox v. Tigers -131 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
914 Chicago at Detroit Shields & Boyd Big advantages for the host here. Detroit has a 29% starting pitcher edge, a 6% bullpen advantage, and a whopping 20 offensive edge. Chicago hits lefties on the road 20% worse than league average. Boyd is 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .185 opponent batting average at Tiger Stadium. James Shields on the other hand is 1-7 on the road with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-22-18 | Cardinals +152 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 152 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
961 St Louis at Los Angeles Flaherty & Buehler Very surprised by the size of this line as we have this matchup much closer. Flaherty rates 5% better than Buehler, also we love both of these starters. While the Dodgers bullpen does have a sizable 23% advantage, it’s been in shambles as of late. The Dodgers have a 15% advantage offensively, but not nearly enough to support this high spread. The Cardinals are on a 19-6 run including taking the first two games of this series. The Dodgers on the other hand have lost 8 of 11. Plenty of value on the dog here. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-21-18 | Indians v. Red Sox -142 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -142 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
916 Cleveland at Boston Bieber & Eovaldi As an Indians fan we watch every Tribe game all season. While the starting pitching staff has been terrific, we feel Shane Bieber is a ticking time bomb. Most of his stuff is pedestrian, and he’s had success because he’s only allowed seven home runs in 68 innings. His ERA is 4.37 which is mediocre. His WHIP is 1.41 which is high, and he allows opponents a .295 batting average which gets you sent to the minors very quickly. He’s having success at this level by smoke and mirrors. Nathan Eovaldi has always had a terrific fastball in which he tried to overpower the batter and get the strikeout. Because of that he was too predictable and couldn’t go long in the game. This year because of getting older and prior injuries he’s finally learning how to be a pitcher. Since coming to the Red Sox he’s pitched 15 innings in Fenway Park and has yet to give up a single earned run. On the season his ERA is 3.62 with a WHIP of 1.04. This line is low because of public perception, especially on the Bieber side of the equation. Let’s look for the Sox to even this series. PLAY BOSTON |
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08-20-18 | White Sox v. Twins -158 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -158 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
966 Chicago at Minnesota Giolito & Gonsalves Decent price to go against one of our worst rated pitchers in the league. Not only do the Twins have a massive starting pitcher edge, but also a 20% advantage in the bullpen. Offensively Minnesota owns a 27% advantage offensively. Chicago hits lefties on the road 16% lower than average, and now must face a pitcher the players have never seen at this level. Stephen Gonsalves has been simply amazing in his minor league career. He owns a 53-20 record with a 2.46 ERA. His WHIP is 1.10 with an opponent batting average of .199. That covers 599 minor league innings. We always like to back rookie lefties the first time through the league, and he should dominate this light hitting White Sox lineup. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-19-18 | Astros -144 v. A's | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
927 Houston at Oakland Verlander & Manaea Strong starting pitcher advantage for the Astros here. Our numbers show a 33% advantage with Verlander. Houston also shows an 18% bullpen edge. Houston also rakes on the road vs lefties hitting 20% higher than league average. Justin Verlander has dominated on the road this year with a 1.74 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent batting average of just .195. While Manaea’s home stats are good the A’s haven’t backed him with much support. He’s only 5-5 on this mound this season. PLAY HOUSTON |
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08-17-18 | Mets +154 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
901 NY Mets at Philadelphia Syndergaard & Nola Two excellent starters go head to head on Friday and we believe the line is a bit inflated on the host. Our numbers show the only real advantage in this game being the Phillies bullpen, but Syndergaard normally goes deep into games. We also feel that after the Phillies permitted a total of 30 runs yesterday, the bullpen will obviously be a little taxed. The Mets have played nine road games this month against the pitching staffs of the Nationals, Marlins, Yankees, Orioles and Phillies. In those nine games New York produced 73 runs. Since the All-Star Break the Mets have averaged 6.7 runs away from home. With Thor on the mound and the Mets being underrated on the road all season we like our chances in this one. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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08-16-18 | Mets +145 v. Phillies | Top | 24-4 | Win | 145 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
953 NY Mets at Philadelphia Oswalt & Suarez First Game of Today’s Doubleheader Taking a look at Corey Oswalt’s numbers suggest a much better pitcher than a 5.03 ERA would indicate. He’s allowed seven home runs on the season which is why the ERA is so high. But in reality he has a 1.07 WHIP and allows opponents just a .224 batting average. The Mets are one of if not the best road hitting team in baseball. It’s Citi Field that keeps this offense from getting the respect it deserves. Philadelphia was just in a series against the team running away with the best record in the league, the Red Sox. That was a show me series for this young team. We can’t see them getting up for the lowly Mets here. Our numbers have New York as a real bargain here. PLAY NEW YORK METS 1ST GAME OF DOUBLEHEADER |
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08-15-18 | Pirates v. Twins -117 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 1 h 9 m | Show |
918 Pittsburgh at Minnesota Archer & Berrios The Minnesota hitters should have an advantage here as they are very familiar with Chris Archer from his years in Tampa Bay. The Pirates hitters on the other hand are unfamiliar with Jose Berrios. The Minnesota hurler has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts, but should bounce back strongly here. He has a 2.95 ERA at home with an amazing 0.88 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .187 against him on this mound. We rate Berrios with an 11% starting pitcher advantage, and a 15% hitting edge here, with the bullpens being even. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-14-18 | White Sox v. Tigers -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
962 Chicago at Detroit Giolito & Hardy Lucas Giolito was once a prized pitcher in the Washington farm system. He was traded to the White Sox, and after Tommy John surgery has never been the same. He’s pitched much better on the road than at home this season, and he still has terrible numbers away. It’s even worse when he pitches at night, with a 7.24 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. This is not a pitcher we want anything to do with in this price range. Clear Data Sports rates Giolito 50% worse than an average major league pitcher. The White Sox continue to trot out three of the worst starters in baseball. Hardy rates 49% higher than Giolito, the Detroit bullpen has a 6% edge, and offensively Detroit hits 6% better against right-handed starters than the White Sox. Hardy has been a real bright spot for the Tigers this year. We trust him and the Tigers to make quick work of the visitor tonight. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-13-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -137 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
904 Washington at St Louis Milone & Mikolas Devastating loss for the Nationals last night with their ace starting the contest. Losing a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth with one swing is about as bad of a loss as you can think of. Now the Bats have to travel off a night game to face the rejuvenated Cardinals. Huge pitching edge for the host who has a 41% advantage in the starters. The bullpens are equal, while Washington does have a 4% batting advantage. Miles Mikolas has been outstanding in this ballpark. A 2.01 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP on the season. He’s allowing opponents a .237 batting average and has only permitted two home runs in an amazing 71.2 innings of work at home. While that last stat is sure to regress, this man has owned this mound all season. Cheap number considering the circumstances. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-11-18 | Cardinals -154 v. Royals | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
929 St Louis at Kansas City Flaherty & Duffy While we have made a living on underdogs this season, this is the time of year that favorites are golden. Once rosters expand we will find great value on underdogs and youth energizes losing teams. But for now we will lay it with the Cardinals tonight. Huge starting pitcher advantage for the Cards in this one with a 36% advantage with Flaherty. St Louis also holds a nice bullpen edge over the Royals. St Louis should dominate in the batters box with a 21% advantage as the Cards his lefty starters on the road 13% above league average. Let’s take a look at home poorly Danny Duffy has performed at home this season. He is 1-5 with a whopping 6.48 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .288 against him. Only three times this season has he permitted less than 4 earned runs in a home start. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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08-10-18 | Diamondbacks -123 v. Reds | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
955 Arizona at Cincinnati Buchholz & DeSclafani Fair price for the far better team here as we look to back Buchholz on the road. When healthy Clay has been a very good pitcher in his career. After two years struggling with injuries he’s back and resembling his old self. Our numbers count his injury struggles in the past and he still rates slightly higher than his mound opponent. The Arizona bullpen has a huge 18% advantage in this contest. The Diamondbacks also have a wide 14% offensive edge, as Cincinnati is 17% below league average at home vs right-handed starters. Buchholz has an excellent 2.10 ERA and 0.93 WHIP on the road, he also hold opponents to a .198 batting average. He owns a 29 to 7 SO to W ratio. DeSclafani has a 5.65 ERA at home with a 1.47 WHIP. Opponents are batting .287 against him in Cincinnati. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-09-18 | Pirates v. Giants -128 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
908 Pittsburgh at San Francisco Nova & Suarez Time to take advantage of one of the biggest home/road dichotomies in the league. Ivan Nova has been solid pitching at PNC Park, but look at what he has done the last few years on the road. This season 5.40ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Last year 5.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with a 3-12 record. In 2016 he had a 6.65 ERA And a 1.46 WHIP. Andrew Suarez is coming off his worst start of the season allowing 8 earned runs and 10 hits in just 5 innings of work. He has been a much better pitcher at home posting a 3.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the season. Our numbers rate him 13% better than Nova, with the bullpens rating virtually identical. But the Giants have a large 14% hitting edge as the Pirates are 11% below league average on the road vs left-handed starters. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-08-18 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays +134 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
968 Boston at Toronto Johnson & Hauschild We’ve been looking for a chance to go against Brian Johnson and the price is right here to take the underdog Jays. While the numbers say Johnson has a 2.22 ERA on the road this year, he has been extremely lucky. His road WHIP is 1.56 and he permits a .293 opponent batting average. Last year on the road he had an 8.22 ERA with a 1.96 WHIP and a .324 opponent batting average. Our numbers show Mike Hauschild to be 6% better than Johnson, with the bullpen being virtually equal. Boston hits right-handed starters on the road equally as well as Toronto hits lefties at home. This line should be closer to even. PLAY TORONTO |
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08-05-18 | Rockies +103 v. Brewers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 103 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
909 Colorado at Milwaukee Gray & Miley While John Gray has looked like an entirely different pitcher since being sent down to the minors. This handicap is based strictly on going against Wade Miley. The Brewers pitcher has long been a fringe starter simply because he pitches from the left side. If he had been a righty he would have been out of baseball years ago. He has 206 career innings with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. IN 2017 his ERA was 5.61 with a WHIP of 1.73. In 2016 his ERA was 6.17 with a WHIP of 1.57. In 29.1 innings of work this season he has a 1.53 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. Do we trust a 200 inning career or 29 innings this season? If you have followed our work for any time I believe you know the answer to that. Small sample sizes get the novice better excited, but a veteran capper knows how to take advantage of blips on the radar. Our numbers give Gay a whopping 53% advantage over Miley. Milwaukee does have a 6% bullpen edge, and a 7% hitting advantage. But those numbers cannot even come close to the starter advantage for the Rockies, who actually hit league average on the road vs lefties. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-04-18 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
972 Kansas City at Minnesota Smith & Berrios Burch Smith is one of the worst starting pitchers in our database. He rates as 35% worse than an average Major League pitcher. The Kansas City bullpen traded away its two most reliable arms at the trade deadline. Yesterday the Royals bullpen threw 101 total pitches. That likely means the Smith will be taking one for the team today. He has a 6.18 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his career. Berrios has been lights out at home the past two years. This season he is 7-2 with a 2.99 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. Last year he was 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He is coming off a poor start in which he went 4.2 innings allowing 3 earned runs and nine hits. Even though the line in this game is high, it’s still a bargain. But we are going to lay the 1 1/2 runs here as we really expect these Twin bats to pound Burch Smith. PLAY MINNESOTA RUN LINE |
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07-31-18 | Mets +168 v. Nationals | Top | 4-25 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
953 NY Mets at Washington Matz & Roark This contest is very similar to our play on the Orioles with Bundy the other day. We have a pitcher that has struggled his last three starts, while everyone is ignoring the larger sample size. Steven Matz has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 17.1 innings. This is opposed to his solid 3.79 ERA on the season. Matz has really struggled at Shea Stadium the past three years with a 5-13 record, 1-9 the past two years. We are getting his one the road, off three poor outings, at an inflated price. Tanner Roark is coming off his best start of the season, eight shutout innings with an 11-1 strikeout to walk ratio. But that game was pitched in Milwaukee. He’s been dreadful at home the last two years. He’s 2-6 with a 5.98 ERA here this year, and 6-6 with a 5.04 ERA last year. Let’s grab the nicely priced underdog as the Nationals continue to underperform. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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07-30-18 | Giants -102 v. Padres | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
907 San Francisco at San Diego Holland & Lauer A couple of mediocre lefties take the hill for these two western squads on Monday. Holland has been downright terrible the two previous years, but he’s been very productive for the Giants this season. It looked like his best years were far behind him when he pitched quality ball for the Rangers. But he’s starting to resemble himself from those years. Because he has been bad for so long, he’s an afterthought in the betting marketplace. But that only gives us value tonight. We have Holland rated 14% better than Lauer. While San Diego did have a sizable bullpen edge, that’s gone now with Cimber and Hand being traded to Cleveland. Without them the bullpen has really struggled. With the offenses grading out equally, we can take advantage of the Padres recent struggles. As this team has really taken a step back the last month or so. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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07-29-18 | Rays v. Orioles +109 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 109 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
968 Tampa Bay at Baltimore Chirinos & Bundy We love to play against overreactions and small sample sizes, and today we have a classic example. Yonny Chirinos is getting a chance to start again for the Rays. He’s been good this season but he hasn’t racked up many innings because of injury. We like his future but he can’t expect to go very long today. He opposes Dylan Bundy who is the established ace of this staff. But we are getting him and the O’s today in an underdog role based on his current form. In his last three starts he has been lit up for 15 earned runs in 12.1 innings of work. Thats a short sample size people overreact to. The time to play against Bundy was three games ago, not now when everyone and their brother a going against him. The buy market is screaming for the Orioles today and we take advantage. Sports betting is all about ebbs and flows. Selling high and buying low. We have these two starters rated virtually even. While the Rays do have a 12% better bullpen, the hitting advantage is all Orioles. Baltimore hits righties at home 17% better than the Rays hit righties on the road. We look for the Baltimore bats to do some pounding today. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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07-28-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals +100 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
902 Chicago at St Louis Quintana & Mikolas Very fair number here to back Miles Mikolas at home. He’s been dynamite on this mound all season with an amazing 1.99 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Our numbers show him at 21% stronger than Quintana, while the bullpens are almost exactly rated even. St Louis does have a 5% offensive edge against lefties at home, compared to the Cubs road work against righties. We go against the public team here in a major rivalry game. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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07-25-18 | Astros -118 v. Rockies | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
977 Houston at Colorado Morton & Gray Two superior starters take the mound in Colorado. Which isn’t always a good pitching result because of the altitude. But in this case we rate the host slightly better from a starter standpoint. The Houston bullpen along with the Yankees are the two most lethal in all of baseball. We see a 26% bullpen edge for the Astros here. We also prefer the Houston bats by 10% against right-handed starters, as opposed to the host. Charlie Morton has been very consistent this year at home and away. Jon Gray has been consistent too, but he’s having a down year overall. In fact, the Rockies had sent him to the minors in order to work out his problems. We feel much better about Morton here in regards to this start, as we can’t guarantee the old Gray has returned. PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-24-18 | Pirates +172 v. Indians | Top | 9-4 | Win | 172 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
925 Pittsburgh at Cleveland Musgrove & Bieber In interleague action this year the National League has dominated. That’s a major break from the American League having the upper hand for years. Pittsburgh continued that streak with a rain shortened win over the Tribe yesterday. Here we find two young hurlers going head to head, and we believe the line is drastically high. Both starters rate equally but let’s take a closer look at Shane Bieber. Opponents are hitting .291 against him this season, with a 1.34 WHIP. While the 3.53 ERA is fine, that number is sure to rise based on the lack of success he has had getting opponents out. He’s been very lucky in allowing just four home runs in 43.1 innings of work. Laying such a large favorite into a team on a long winning streak is something you should rarely do. The closer dive into Bieber’s numbers make us a buyer on the Pirates. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-20-18 | Astros v. Angels +117 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
922 Houston at LA Angels Keuchel & Skaggs With the Angels now 14 games behind the Astros and 9 behind Seattle in the wildcard chase, this team needs to start the second half of the season in style. And the situation screams for the host here. The Astros just had a number of players flying into and out of the nation’s capital for the All-Star Game. It’s a great honor to be a participant in those festivities but it wrecks havoc on your body clock. As opposed to the Angels, the Astros had a major group who were in Washington DC this week. That’s a major advantage for the Angels here in what is sure to be a tough night for many players. Especially offensively as the first game after the break traditionally is lower scoring. While both starters are in excellent current form, we prefer Skaggs in this matchup. Our numbers have him as a rising star that’s being undervalued in the marketplace. The offenses rate very close to even, but the situational advantage hurts the visitor. While Houston has the vastly superior bullpen, we believe the wrong team is favored here. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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07-14-18 | Rays v. Twins -130 | Top | 19-6 | Loss | -130 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
966 Tampa Bay at Minnesota Archer & Berrios Chris Archer back from the DL has had a very disappointing year. He’s still rated 7% better than an average starting pitcher, but he just hasn’t been the same this season. Jose Berrios on the other hand has been excellent, with a 20% better number than his mound opponent today. The Minnesota bullpen rates 11% stronger as well, so the pitching should be a dominant advantage on Saturday. Then we turn to the offenses where Minnesota rates 15% higher than Tampa Bay against right-handed starters. The line is very fair for the home team as the Twins grab the victory. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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07-13-18 | Cubs v. Padres +115 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
912 Chicago Cubs at San Diego Chatwood & Richard Great opportunity to go against our lowest rated starting pitcher at a plus money price. Tyler Chatwood is 44% below average for a major league starter. He just can’t keep the opposition off base. Chatwood comes in with a horrendous 1.78 WHIP on the season, which is even worse his last seven starts at 2.01. While the Cubs offense is 18% stronger than the Padres, the San Diego pitching edges rule this contest. San Diego has a 36% edge on the starting rubber, as well as an 11% advantage in the bullpen. Fading public teams is a good way to build your bankroll, as we do so here. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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07-13-18 | Nationals v. Mets -118 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
904 Washington at NY Mets Roark & Syndergaard The Nationals are really struggling right now, especially offensively. They only have a 3% offensive advantage in this contest. Washington has invested heavily in the bullpen and is still just 4% stronger than that of the Mets. The huge advantage for the host here is on the starting bump, where Syndergaard is 52% better than Roark. That’s one of the biggest starter advantages you will see, and yet the price is very manageable. Roark is 3-11 on the season and in his last seven games he sports a 6.99 ERA. He has permitted 13 earned runs in his last 11 innings, and one of those opponents was the light hitting Marlins. The Nationals have scored 23 total runs in 8 games this month when not playing the lowly Miami Marlins. Don’t expect much offense against the Mets ace. PLAY NY METS |
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07-12-18 | Blue Jays +170 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
961 Toronto at Boston Happ & Price A battle of two solid lefties takes place tonight in Fenway Park. While the matchup slightly favors the host, the batting edge is all with the visitor. JA Happ is coming off two bad performances and now takes on a very good hitting Red Sox team. But all that does is increase the value on the road dog. Small sample sizes are the quickest way to ruin for sports gamblers, and we would rather take a look at how he has done for the year and his career. We rate Happ 11% better than David Price with the bullpens having a slight edge for the Sox. We talked about the Red Sox hitting of lefty starters at home, but it’s only 5% better than the Blue Jays against lefties on the road. Happ is 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA on the road this season, with a good WHIP of 1.11. Price at home is 3.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Great value taking the better starter in this price range. PLAY TORONTO |
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07-11-18 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
912 Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Maeda & Lucchesi Two of our highest rated pitchers tangle tonight, and neither is considered to be elite by the general public. We rate Kenta Maeda 26% better than league average, and Joey Lucchesi 12% above the league norm. The home plate umpire is also known for a wide strike zone which gives us another advantage. Both starters have been on their game as of late so we expect a solid pitchers duel. The bullpens are also better than average by 7% and 12%. Look for a nice pitchers duel out west. PLAY UNDER |
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07-10-18 | Diamondbacks -103 v. Rockies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
957 Arizona at Colorado Corbin & Anderson Rare when we get all key components lining up on the same squad in this price range. Patrick Corbin is an All-Star this season for good reason. We rate him 38% better than Tyler Anderson in this contest. The Arizona bullpen has a 2% edge while the offenses are virtually even. As good as Corbin has been at home he has a 2.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road. Anderson comes in hot after back to back eight inning shutouts, but he has pitched much better on the road with a perfect 4-0 mark. Nice price on the better team here as we back the visitor. PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-09-18 | Reds +180 v. Indians | Top | 7-5 | Win | 180 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
921 Cincinnati at Cleveland DeSciafani & Clevinger Surprised by this high line considering how well the Reds have played over the last month. Cincinnati also plays very well in this in-state series. We do rate Clevinger 12% better than his opposition today, but keep in mind he has pitched much better on the road than at home in his career. The last two seasons his ERA is above one run better when he pitches on the road. Cleveland does have a sizable bullpen edge, but the offenses are even. Chances are Cleveland wins this game, but the true odds are much lower than the current markets indicate. Nice price on the red hot Reds. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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07-07-18 | Rays v. Mets +121 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
926 Tampa Bay at New York Snell & Matz Blake Snell has been the hottest pitcher in the league as of late. But take a look at his home/road splits. An ERA of 0.87 with a WHIP of 0.87 at home. On the road an ERA of 3.47 with a WHIP of 1.14. He’s very good on the road but not unworldly as he has been at home. We like both these pitchers but Snell does rate 14% better than Matz. New York does have a slight edge in the bullpen, but the big advantage here is in hitting. The Mets are 16% better than Tampa Bay against left-handed starters. In fact, the Rays are a whopping 15% below league average. In what looks to be a low scoring game we get the Mets at solid plus money in a game that should have been lined around pick. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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07-06-18 | Braves v. Brewers -115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
958 Atlanta at Milwaukee Foltynewicz & Peralta Two quality young starters take the mound in this one. Everyone knows the breakout year Mike F has had this season, but not as many know about Freddy Peralta. This young righty has impressed thus far and we rate him 21% better than Foltynewicz, and for those who have been following, we love Mike F. The Milwaukee bullpen is deep and talented which gives them a edge against this also solid Braves bullpen. Offensively our numbers show a 4% advantage offensively for the host. With the public jumping on what they consider to be a live dog, we will back the Brewers at a cheaper number. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-06-18 | Rangers -101 v. Tigers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
967 Texas at Detroit Colon & Zimmermann At the age of 102 Bartolo Colon rates 13% better than Jordan Zimmerman. That’s really all you need to know about the former Washington National. Texas owns a 9% bullpen edge and is slightly better offensively. Detroit has been on a terrible run after showing signs of life about a month ago. But now the Tigers are playing up to its talent level, which isn’t very good. Nice number for the Rangers here. PLAY TEXAS |
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07-05-18 | Angels v. Mariners -126 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
916 Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Barria & Gonzales Sizable starting pitcher advantage of 18% here for the Mariners lefty. Throw in a 3% bullpen advantage and an 8% offensive edge and we have a clear play on the host here. Barria has done a nice job for the Angels but in our opinion he’s pitching over his head. His rest of year projections have him rated as a 4.91 ERA pitcher with a 1.35 WHIP. He’s been pretty fortunate in exit velocity for what he has in talent. Gonzales was hit hard against New York and Boston, but he’s fared well when stepping down in class. The Angels have plenty of holes in this lineup to pitch around the top three hitters. PLAY SEATTLE |
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07-03-18 | Red Sox v. Nationals -107 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
918 Boston at Washington Johnson & Roark Brian Johnson owns a 4.54 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his career. He was once a highly thought of prospect but he’s never really panned out. Because of injuries the Red Sox were forced to promote him to the big leagues. He doesn’t figure into Boston’s future. Roark has a 3-9 record this year but a passable 4.10 ERA, his WHIP is 1.27. But his career has been a good one thus far with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He just hasn’t gotten much run support this year. Our numbers suggest Roark is 7% better than Johnson, with the Nationals bullpen having a whopping 26% advantage. The Nationals are also solid hitting against lefties, while Boston is 10% lower than league average against right handed starters. We have the host as a solid favorite here and the betting markets are giving us a cheap price. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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07-01-18 | Indians v. A's +121 | Top | 15-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
924 Cleveland at Oakland Clevenger & Montas Mike Clevenger has been terrific all year but he’s about to reach the same amount of MLB innings as he did last year in his rookie season. In fact, management was so worried about that fact that they pushed him back an extra day for rest. Starters are used to pitching every five days, so that little tweak may have an effect on his today. Frankie Montas isn’t a strikeout pitcher but he doesn’t have to be in this ballpark. He’s coming off a poor start but we expect him to bounce back strong today. The only real edge the Tribe has today is in the bullpen, but Miller continues to be out of action. Nice price on the host here as Oakland has beaten up on the Indians pitching staff in this series. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-30-18 | Pirates v. Padres -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
964 Pittsburgh at San Diego Williams & Lucchesi Nice edges across the board for the Padres, especially with the starters. We rate Lucchesi 17% better than Williams. The Padres bullpen is a whopping 16% stronger than that of the Pirates. Offensively neither team stands out but San Diego does have a 2% advantage. None of the key bullpen arms went yesterday for the Padres. This line should be much higher in our opinion. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies -109 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
902 Washington at Philadelphia Fedde & Pivetta This is the second time in a week Erick Fedde has faced the Phillies. Last time out he had his longest start of the season going 6 full innings and allowing 3 earned runs. Philadelphia hit .318 against the young righty. Nick Pivetta has had a somewhat breakout season for the Phillies. He does have a 4-6 record with a 4.06 ERA. But he has 101 strikeouts in just 84.1 innings of work. He has been excellent at home with a 3.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Twice this year he has permitted six earned runs in a game, one of those times was against this Nationals squad. So it’s a bit of a payback game for Pivetta. We rate the Philly righty 29% higher than Fedde. While the Nationals have a 7% better bullpen the offenses are equal. Huge starting pitcher edge here for the host puts us squarely on the Phillies. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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06-28-18 | A's -103 v. Tigers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
961 Oakland at Detroit Manaea & Fulmer Sean Manaea started the year on fire including tossing a no-hitter. Then he regressed a bit and everyone lost interest. But he’s back to pitching well in his last three starts, going going 20.1 innings and allowing just 6 earned runs. Michael Fulmer had been thought of as a major building block for the Tigers. But he’s struggled this season and his name has been brought up in trade talk. Our ratings have Oakland better across the board with a 7% starting pitching edge, 3% relief advantage and 6% offensive edge. Detroit has struggled to step up against quality teams and this Athletics team is holding its own in the best division in baseball. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-27-18 | Rockies v. Giants -141 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
910 Colorado at San Francisco Freeland & Bumgarner Rare chance tp get an elite pitcher at home in this price range. The Giants are playing good ball right now and Madison is coming in off his best start in this injury shortened season. Bumgarner has been excellent at home in his career, allowing opposing batters to hit .216 this year, .228 last year, .198 in 2016 and .192 in 2015. We rate Mad Bum 19% better than Freeland. The bullpens are equal, but the Giants hot lefty starters 16% better than the Rockies do. Here we have a team catching its stride and having its ace on the mound. Cheap number we can take advantage of. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-26-18 | Reds +150 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 150 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
955 Cincinnati at Atlanta Harvey & Sanchez Having success in handicapping sports is very much like playing the stock market. You want to buy low and sell high. While we can’t fully back Harvey here in a buy low scenario, we are all in on selling Anibel Sanchez. The 13 year veteran has posted a 2.55 ERA on the season in 42.1 innings of work. If the season ended now it would be a career best season. But there is an excellent chance of regression with Sanchez. The past three seasons he has posted ERAs of 6.41, 5.87 and 4.99. That was over 415.2 innings of work. So basically we have ten times as much data saying he is a very poor pitcher at this stage of his career, as opposed to a single 42 inning sample size. We rate Harvey 6% better than Sanchez with the offenses being virtually equal. The Atlanta bullpen is better which is why the Braves are favored, along with home field advantage. But over the last month or so Atlanta has reverted back to the pack while the Reds have been surging. We can buy the Braves as a slight favorite here, but this line is just silly. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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06-25-18 | Padres +140 v. Rangers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
919 San Diego at Texas Lucchesi & Hamels Nice underdog price here with a Padres team that continues to be under the radar. Lucchesi is coming off the worst start of his career which led to a stint on the DL. But until that poor start which can be attributed to injury he had been outstanding. A major advantage is the way he hides the ball and his funky delivery, which should really be effective against an American League squad. Cole Hamels has had a nice bounce back year, but most of his success has been on the road. He’s 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA at home. We rate the Padres starter 23% stronger than Hamels, with last year really holding the lefty back. San Diego has a 5% advantage in the bullpen, while Texas does have a 7% hitting edge. But we expect the Rangers to struggle against an unfamiliar lefty, and the value is on the dog. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-24-18 | Marlins +157 v. Rockies | Top | 8-5 | Win | 157 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
961 Miami at Colorado Smith & Marquez This line is majorly inflated because of the getaway record for the Miami Marlins. Miami has really struggled in the last game of a series. But is that really a trend or just a small sample size? Keep in mind each series ends with a different starting pitcher on the hill. Each series is against a different team. It’s not like the coaching staff empties the bench in the final game of each series. Therefore we don’t respect this trend, while the linebackers do. That gives us a huge edge here in this number. Our analysis shows this to be a far more even game than the markets. We rate Caleb Smith at the better starter, with the offenses being equal. The big edge for the Rockies is the bullpen. Let’s take a look at German Marquez as of late. On the season he has a 7.45 ERA at home. In his last three overall starts has has permitted 15 earned runs in 16 innings of work. Does that should like someone you want to back in this price range? PLAY MIAMI |
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06-23-18 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates +111 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
906 Arizona at Pittsburgh Greinke & Musgrove We backed the Diamondbacks last night and were finally rewarded in 13 innings. Today we look for the Pirates to rebound. Greinke has an enormous home/road split. Over the last two seasons Zack is 16-2 at home and only 7-10 when on the road. While win/loss records don’t mean as much as other advanced stats, the disparity is rather shocking. this season his home ERA is 2.40 while on the road it’s 5.66. We simply cannot back Arizona as a road favorite with his road numbers. Musgrove is coming off his worst effort of the season as Cincinnati pounded him. We expect a rebound effort. Arizona has the bullpen advantage, but other than that we like the Pirates in every category. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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06-22-18 | Diamondbacks -112 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
951 Arizona at Pittsburgh Corbin & Nova Patrick Corbin faces the Pirates 11 days ago and Pittsburgh pounded him hard. Now on the road with a 2.78 ERA and an undefeated record, we expect Corbin to get his revenge. We rate the Diamondbacks lefty 16% better than Ivan Nova. The Arizona bullpen is also better by 11%. Pittsburgh does have a 5% offensive edge. As the Arizona offense gets healthier the more we can expect the D’Backs to hit, and Nova is very hittable. PLAY ARIZONA |
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06-20-18 | Tigers v. Reds -125 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show |
972 Detroit at Cincinnati Fulmer & Mahle Michael Fulmer was once considered the ace of this Tigers program but he just hasn’t progressed. In his last seven starts he is posting a 4.76 ERA and he’s never been a guy who can beat you with the strikeout. We have him rated 15% below a league average hurler, which is very disappointing to the Tigers management. Tyler Mahle didn’t have the same early success as Fulmer, but he’s developed better than his American League competitor. In his last seven starts he’s allowed a 3.53 ERA. While Detroit is a pretty good pitchers park this Cincinnati venue is great for hitters. We rate the Reds 17% better offensively in this matchup as this team really does have some productive bats. Cheap number here in this afternoon affair. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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06-19-18 | Cardinals +110 v. Phillies | Top | 7-6 | Win | 110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
903 St Louis at Philadelphia Weaver & Velasquez Great game last night as we were able to cash with the Phillies in extra innings. But we were impressed the way the Cardinals made a game of it. Luke Weaver has gotten better as the season has worn on, posting a 3.52 ERA in his last seven starts. But the main reason to play the Cards here is we want to go against Vince Velasquez when pitching at home. Last year he was 1-5 with a 6.10 ERA at home. This season he is even worse in Philadelphia with a 6.88 ERA. Most sports bettors want to back power pitchers, and for the most part we agree. Which is why we get a nice price with St Louis here. Let’s take the Cards in a game we expect the offense to explode. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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06-18-18 | Cardinals v. Phillies -102 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
952 St Louis at Philadelphia Mikolas & Pivetta Miles Mikolas has been very good this year but a main portion of his success is because of a home ERA of 1.68 on the season. As good as he has been we’ve been just as impressed with Nick Pivetta. He himself has an ERA of 3.13 at home this season with a 1.11 WHIP in Philadelphia. We rate the Phillies bullpen 18% better than that of the Cards. Philadelphia haas also hit 6% better at home vs righties as the Cards have done on the road vs right-handed starters. The last point of emphasis here in the Cardinals traveling after a Sunday Night Baseball game against the rival Cubs. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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06-15-18 | Rockies v. Rangers -104 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
930 Colorado at Texas Bettis & Mendez While Chad Bettis has been rewarded with a 4-1 record this season, he simply hasn’t earned it. In 75.2 innings he only has 53 strikeouts. In his last seven starts he owns a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Yolander Mendez will be making his first major league start for the Rangers after competing in the bullpen at the major league level. While we rate him 5% below league average it’s still higher than we rate Bettis. The bullpens are equal but Texas has a sizable hitting edge here. The Rangers hit right-handed starters 15% better than the Rockies do against lefty starters. He like to ride young lefties making starter debuts, and the betting public frowns on names it doesn’t know. Plenty of value here with the host. PLAY TEXAS |
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06-13-18 | Angels v. Mariners +103 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 103 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
918 Los Angeles at Seattle Richards & Gonzales The young lefty from Seattle rates 6% better than Richards in our power ratings. He’s also on a solid 4-1 run with a 2.18 ERA in his last seven games. The Mariners bullpen also rates 10% better than the Angels. Hitting wise we have the host 7% better. So we get a clean sweep for the host and the payback is quite nice. PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-12-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays -105 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
966 Toronto at Tampa Bay Garcia & Stanek The Rays were good to us yesterday and we see no reason to abandon them here. Tampa will be using Stank to start with Pruitt to follow. We rate that combination 5% better than Jaime Garcia, and that may still be a bit short. Garcia hasn’t won a game in his last seven starts, and in that time he is averaging just over four innings per outing. In that time his ERA is 6.25 with a 1.64 WHIP. The Tampa Bay bullpen rates 11% better than the Jays. The host also hits lefties 5% better than the visitor does against right-handed starters. All in all we are getting the better team laying a very small number. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-11-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays +102 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 102 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
912 Toronto at Tampa Bay Gaviglio & Yarbrough Sam Gaviglio is off to a nice start with the Blue Jays, but there is nothing in his history that would flash up a buy sign. He’s not a strikeout pitcher by any means, and he throws below league average velocity. So we feel we are playing against a starter that is already at his peak. Ryan Yarbrough is able to keep the opposition off balance with a very good change up. He’s only allowing a .235 batting average on the season, while averaging about a strikeout per inning. The Rays bullpen is 11% stronger than that of the Jays. The hitting in this contest is a virtual tie. In our opinion the wrong team is favored here. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-09-18 | Indians v. Tigers +165 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 165 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
924 Cleveland at Detroit Clevinger & Fiers Mike Clevinger really was a major surprise for the Tribe a year ago, and a lot was expected out of him in 2018. While he started the year off fine, he has struggled his past three starts. In his last 18 innings he has allowed 10 earned runs. He’s also pitched much worse at night than in the day in his short major league career. So we have these two starters pretty even talent wise. Traditionally the Cleveland bullpen has been much better, but this season has been a dumpster fire anytime the call to the bullpen is made. We actually have Detroit as a slightly better hitting team against right-handed starters. PLAY DETROIT |
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06-08-18 | Angels v. Twins +115 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
976 Los Angeles at Minnesota Richards & Lynn While Lance Lynn has had his struggles this season, he has been much better as of late. In his last three starts he has permitted just 3 earned runs in 18.2 innings of work. In his first six years in the majors he never exceeded a 3.97 ERA in any season. After struggling out of the gate in a new league, he is now starting to pitch like his old self. So while our starter numbers show an edge for the Angels, recency has us looking to back the veteran righty for the Twins. Minnesota has an 11% edge in the bullpen, and a 7% offensive advantage against right-handed starters. Wrong team favored here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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06-07-18 | Capitals +132 v. Golden Knights | Top | 4-3 | Win | 132 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
009 Washington at Vegas The Caps have won the past three games pretty convincingly. Vegas came out in the first period of the last game throwing everything it had at Washington, and still failed to score. It was by far the best the Knights had played in this series and still they couldn’t penetrate the goal. Once Vegas was called for a penalty the game shifted gears as the Washington power play went to work. That’s been the big difference in this series. The Caps have simply dominated the Knights with a man advantage. The only chance the host has tonight is to play a completely clean game, and that’s just too much to ask. The better team closes it out tonight. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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06-04-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals -115 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
008 Vegas at Washington Very surprised by the low line here considering how difficult it has been for the Knights to get good quality shots. The Caps are playing the type of defense that Vegas played in the first three rounds of the playoffs. Before the series started we talked about the defensive edge the Knights had in this series. So far we have been completely wrong in that regard. Sure Las Vegas is putting shots on goal, but they aren’t quality shots. The only scored the Knights had in the previous game was a major mistake by the Caps goalie. Washington has been the better team thus far and to get them at home laying such a small number is a bargain. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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06-02-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -180 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -180 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
974 Boston at Houston Price & Verlander Let me start this by saying that we very rarely suggest playing big favorites in baseball. In fact, just once all season have we released a favorite of higher than -135. That was a winner on the Cleveland Indians at -180. But this game has the biggest value on the board, and we are here to build our clients bankrolls. Therefore we will be backing the Astros on Saturday. Houston has a huge starting pitching advantage of 33% here as Verlander has been absolutely dominant this year. The Astro bullpen rates 26% better than a Boston bullpen who we like very much. Houston also owns a 20% offensive edge against lefty starters, as opposed to the Red Sox hitting against righties. Yes the line is high but it’s up there for a reason. The betting markets know how good the Sox are so the line can only go so high, just not high enough by our numbers. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-30-18 | Cardinals -105 v. Brewers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
901 St. Louis at Milwaukee Reyes & Guerra Alex Reyes is finally back in the majors after having his 2016 season shortened because of Tommy John surgery. At the time the highly praised youngster was 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA. He was dominant during his minor league rehab games and the Cardinals coaching staff have not put any limitations on him today. Our numbers have him 31% higher than his counterpart Junior Guerra. That’s also 24% stronger than an average major league pitcher. While the Brewers do have an 11% better bullpen, St. Louis owns the offensive edge by 9% when facing right handed starters. The Cards are starting to rest from its slumber as key bats like Carpenter are starting to get hot. PLAY ST. LOUIS |
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05-28-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -138 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
002 Washington at Vegas The last time the Golden Knights entered a series with a major rest advantage it lost to Winnipeg. The Jets scored two goals right off the bat to shock the Knights. After that early explosion the team settled down and played the Jets equal through the remainder of that game. We all know what happened after that as Vegas dominated the rest of the series. Now with that knowledge we really expect the Knights to be fired up here, especially in front of the home crowd. We feel Vegas has a major defensive advantage in this game while all other edges are very slight. Look for the Knights to have a great defensive game and win a low scoring contest. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-24-18 | Warriors +1 v. Rockets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
507 Golden State at Houston Rare opportunity to get the clearly best team in the league without laying points. The Warriors were a short handed bunch last time out and the physical nature of the game seemed to wear on them down the stretch. Keep in mind the mental focus of this team after blowing away the Rockets in the previous game. Golden State was fat and happy and began to read its press clippings. While the Rockets played all out with its back to the wall. Now that Golden State is focused we see the Warriors coming out of Texas with the series lead. PLAY GOLDEN STATE |
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05-23-18 | Braves +111 v. Phillies | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
955 Atlanta at Philadelphia Gohara & Arrieta We’ve been waiting to get a chance to bet Luiz Gohara in a starting role. This young lefty has electrifying stuff, and yet the public knows little about him. We rate him 16% higher than Jake Arrieta who continues to be on the decline. His strikeout rate is very low which means he’s becoming much more hittable than he was with the Cubs the past few years. The offenses are nearly identical while we will admit we prefer the Phillies bullpen by 14%. That said, we are getting Gohara at a cheap price and feel the wrong team is favored here. PLAY ATLANTA |
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05-22-18 | Orioles -120 v. White Sox | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
919 Baltimore at Chicago You won’t find many bigger starting pitching matchups. Because of James Shields past few starts many think they are going to see Big Game James. But we all know that small sample sizes have no value when compared to long term records. We rate Gausman 32% better than Shields, with Big James coming in at 27% worse than an average MLB starter. The bullpens are virtually equal, but the Orioles have a nice 12% offensive advantage against righties. The public may be fooled by small sample sizes but we take full advantage. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
705 Boston at Cleveland So Cleveland is favored by 6 1/2 at home in game three after losing by double digits twice in Boston. Now the line is higher after the Cavs blow out the Celtics by 30 in the previous game? That’s not how sports betting works, especially this far into the playoffs where all four teams are among the leagues elite. Boston has the best coach remaining in the playoffs, which really says something with the Rockets and Warriors included, two elite coaches indeed. The Celtics have been terrific all season off a loss, off a double digit loss and off a blowout loss. History says the same thing when it comes to playoff basketball. Simply, the team that gets embarrassed comes out and covers the spread the next game. It happed last night in Oakland and it will do the same tonight in Cleveland. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-21-18 | Braves v. Phillies -114 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
954 Atlanta at Philadelphia Foltynewicz & Pivetta Big fans of both these pitchers this season as they were highly touted and are now coming into their own. But we prefer the host here as we grade Pivetta 20% better than league average and 15% higher than Mike Foltynewicz. The Phillies bullpen is 14% better and the Phillies grade out 4% better offensively against right handed pitching. The public also likes the underdog here, and we know a public dog is a losing dog. Let’s lay the short number with the Phillies. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-20-18 | Indians v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
928 Cleveland at Houston Carrasco & McCullers Terrific pitching matchup for Sunday Night Baseball. Carlos Carrasco has pitched in this ballpark twice and he has yet to give up a run in 15.1 combined innings of work. Overall his road ERA in his career is 1.38 runs less than when he pitches at home. McCullers has a career ERA at home of 2.47 runs better than on the road. He rarely gives up the long ball which is a big part of this Cleveland offense. Therefore we look for a major pitchers duel tonight in front of the national television audience. PLAY UNDER |
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05-19-18 | Indians v. Astros -111 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
968 Cleveland at Houston Kluber & Keuchel It’s very hard for us to go against Corey Kluber in this price range, but we simply cannot back this lifeless Indians offense against a quality starter. We actually have Kluber a big favorite in the starting pitcher battle, but everything else says Astros. Houston has an elite bullpen and the Cleveland relievers have been a complete disaster. The Indians hit 4% lower than league average against lefties, and the coaching staff continues to play the likes of Kipnis past his prime. Houston on the other hand is 16% better than league average against righties, and Kluber has a habit of allowing solo home runs. Which with this weak Cleveland offense simply cannot be allowed. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-18-18 | Rockies v. Giants -114 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
914 Colorado at San Francisco Freeland & Holland Not a big fan of either of these starters as we have both graded much lower than league average. But we do get to go against the awful Rockies bats at a very fair price. Colorado rates 13% below league average when facing left-handed starters. In fact, that 13% is the same as the offensive advantage in this game for the Giants. With both teams virtually even in the bullpen we will lay the short number here with the much better hitting team at home. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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05-18-18 | Phillies v. Cardinals -110 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
912 Philadelphia at St Louis Arrieta & Wacha Jake Arrieta just isn’t the same pitcher he was a few years ago. His advanced numbers continued to go down each and every year, which is why the Cubs let him leave in the offseason. His strikeout numbers continue to decline which means he has to survive off his veteran knowledge. In this starter matchup we like Wacha 10% better than Arrieta, and that number should climb as more recent starts from Jake lower his history numbers. While the Phillie bullpen is better, this team has really struggled in the back of the pen. St Louis hits 7% better against right-handed starters and the Cards are also at home. Cheap number as we take advantage of an overrated Philadelphia starter. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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05-17-18 | A's +113 v. Blue Jays | Top | 10-5 | Win | 113 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
961 Oakland at Toronto Triggs & Sanchez Major starting pitcher edge in this one for the Athletics. We have Triggs rated 27% better than Sanchez, as Aaron continues to fight back from injuries. The bullpens are both good but Toronto’s has a 4% advantage. Oakland has really been a great offense this year. Grading out as 7% better than league average, and 5% stronger than the Blue Jays against righties. All told we have the wrong team favored here as we agree with the early line movement. PLAY OAKLAND |
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05-16-18 | Cardinals -108 v. Twins | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
925 St Louis at Minnesota Mikolas & Lynn The Cardinals had a late lead last night only to have the bullpen blow the game. Today we look for St Louis is get that game back behind the arm of Miles Mikolas. Now back in the big leagues after spending time abroad, Mikolas has become a much better pitcher. We rate him 22% better than Lynn, with the offense rated 3% stronger. While the Twins bullpen rates slightly better we really think this starter matchup can be exploited by the Cards bats. Nice price on this one with the better starter and team. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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05-15-18 | Cubs -118 v. Braves | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
955 Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Darvish & Foltynewicz The Braves have become a betting favorite for the general public, and tonight Atlanta is getting the majority of tickets despite being the underdog. Yu Darvish returns from the DL and we’ve gone over his regression both here and I our weekly videos. That said, this line shows all the value on the listing Cubs. Darvish rates a whopping 26% higher than MF and the Cubs bullpen grades out 14% better. Offensively Chicago hits 10% better than the Braves do against righties. Atlanta has been raking against lefties, but against righties the team is actually 2% worse than league average. Very cheap number here for the Cubs. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-14-18 | Rockies v. Padres -105 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
904 Colorado at San Diego Anderson & Lucchesi As we have pointed out previously Tyler Anderson actually pitches better in Coors Field than he does on the road. We rate Lucchesi 18% better in the starting pitcher matchup, with the Padres holding a 5% edge in the bullpen. Both offenses rate 12% below league average, with the Rockies taking advantage of the strongest home field edge in baseball. Joey Lucchesi has been better than advertised and he has been excellent in this ball park. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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05-14-18 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
902 Milwaukee at Arizona Guerra & Corbin Junior Guerra was excellent after coming off the DL but his work has really regressed as of late. IN fact, we rate Patrick Corbin a whopping 30% better than the Brewers right hander. The Arizona bullpen is very good, a full 11% better than the Brewers. Although Milwaukee from the seventh inning on is lethal. The Brewers do have a 2% offensive edge. But the huge variance at starter here is too much to ignore. The D’Backs were just swept at home by the Nationals, which gives us a cheap number here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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05-13-18 | Rays v. Orioles -101 | Top | 1-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 54 m | Show |
968 Tampa Bay at Baltimore Snell & Bundy Dylan Bunny had been a very good pitcher all season until his dreaded start last time out. His struggles were well publicized as he permitted 7 earned run without getting a single out. He was pulled after the most embarrassing start we can ever remember. Now because of that one start bettors are lining up to bet against him here. Even with that start we still grade Bundy 5% better than Snell, who we also like. Baltimore hits 9% better than the Rays, with the only Tampa Bay edge coming in the bullpen. But with Bundy fully rested the Orioles may not need much from the bullpen today. If this game had been played last week this line would be 20 cents higher. We back Bundy this afternoon to put those bad memories to bed. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-12-18 | Golden Knights +140 v. Jets | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
021 Vegas at Winnipeg Can’t wait for this series to start with two cities going bonkers over their professional hockey teams. The Knights have a big edge in the rest department after the Jets had to go seven games to knock off Nashville. That quick turnaround really helps the visitor here. You can expect a bit of a letdown here after Winnipeg knocked off a team that had been to the championship the past two seasons. We rare the Jets as the slightly better team, and with home ice advantage Winnipeg should win this series. But this is a great opportunity for the Knights to get the early upper hand, and the underdog number is very fair. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-11-18 | Braves v. Marlins +130 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 130 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
956 Atlanta at Miami McCarthy & Straily The Braves have played great ball as of late as the squad has gotten off to a tremendous start to the season. Miami on the other hand entered the year expected to have the worst record in the league. In this contest 80% of the tickets have been written on the Braves, while 70% of the money has been placed on the Marlins. That tells us the public is backing the hot team while the big bettors are backing the home underdog. In looking at our numbers McCarthy only grades out 3% higher than Straily, while the Marlins bullpen is 10% stronger than that of Atlanta. With the Braves only holding a 6% offensive edge here, there is plenty of value on the home dog. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-10-18 | Jets +140 v. Predators | Top | 5-1 | Win | 140 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
053 Winnipeg at Nashville This has been an extremely close series thus far with expected goal numbers being 15.37 for Winnipeg and 14.28 for Nashville. Since 2005 Game 7 hosts are just 27-25, so home ice hasn’t meant much. In this series the road team has won 4 of 6 games. Nashville has been here before, but that only puts more pressure on the host. We are going to back the Jets in what is a nice underdog price in what we grade as an even matchup. PLAY WINNIPEG |
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05-09-18 | Tigers +161 v. Rangers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
961 Detroit at Texas Liriano & Colon We are well aware of the offensive lineup the Tigers have put on the field today as its likely three best hitters are sitting out this game. That said this line has moved way too far in our opinion. Liriano is rated 14% better than Colon, and the bullpens are even. While Texas does have a 13% offensive edge this number is ridiculous. This line has moved 40 cents with word that Nick Castelanos will be on the sidelines. That’s crazy! We will take the value with the nine major league hitters the Tigers have on the field for Wednesday. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-08-18 | Red Sox +188 v. Yankees | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
911 Boston at NY Yankees Pomeranz & Severino Regardless of the pitching matchups in this series the games seem to come down to the wire, and seem to take forever to complete. Many extra inning games and loads of pitching changes. Our feeling has been when these two titans compete we are looking for reasons to take the underdog. Since 2005 there has been 22 games in which the favorite has been -180 or more. The record for the chalk in those games is 12-10. A big loser when it comes to net units. The last three seasons the Sox have been installed as +150 or higher underdogs, in those games Boston is 16-4. The Red Sox are 15-1 this season against right handed pitching, which is amazing. Too much value not to take an elite team here in this price range. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-07-18 | Raptors v. Cavs -5 | Top | 93-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
504 Toronto at Cleveland Give the Raptors all the credit in the world for that comeback last time out. But that last basket by LeBron has to have taken out all the will from this team. Keep in mind LeBron James is on a 27-1 SU run against the Raptors at home. That’s been against some very good Toronto teams the last few years. Now the Raptors need to win four straight including two wins in Cleveland. It’s just not going to happen and the visiting knows it. Cleveland on the other hand wants to finish as soon as possible in order to get a bit of rest before the Eastern Conference Finals. James led the league in minutes this season, so you know the Cavs will do everything in its power to close this one out tonight. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-06-18 | Marlins +110 v. Reds | Top | 8-5 | Win | 110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
909 Miami at Cincinnati Straily & Finnegan Wrong team favored here by our numbers. We rate Straily 10% better than Finnegan, with the bullpen a whopping 15% stronger. Miami has been better against lefties than the Reds have been against right handed pitching. In a battle of pitchers recently on the DL we will back the veteran of the Marlins. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-05-18 | Tigers +133 v. Royals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 133 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
967 Detroit at Kansas City Zimmermann & Hammel Two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball face two of the worst offenses in the game. What to do, what to do? It’s very simple in our minds, you take the underdog. There is no way the Royals should be this level of favorite over anyone I the league. We all know how bad this team has been at home this year, as we’ve taken advantage of them here pretty often this season. Our numbers have this contest much lower than what we are getting from the current betting marketplace. It’s time to take advantage of the Royals at a ridiculous price. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-04-18 | Sharks +150 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
025 San Jose at Las Vegas In game one the Sharks never looked ready to play as it was the worst effort by any team I have seen all year at T-Mobile Arena. Since that game it’s been clear that the better team in this series has been San Jose. The Sharks have proven themselves to be just as fast as the Knights, and a more physical group. This is a must win game for Vegas but this team has little experience in that realm. San Jose has far more playoff experience obviously and the price is very favorable. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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05-04-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -109 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
910 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee Kingham & Guerra Nick Kingham looked amazing in his first major league start. But keep in mind he has been one of the Pirates building blocks for years, and yet he never made the majors until last week. He’s always had talent but he had been surpassed by others as his progressed had stalled. Junior Guerra was fantastic two years ago but he suffered through injuries a year ago. Now is healthy again and the results have been awesome. We are getting the better team at home with the better starter, bullpen and offense. All at a very cheap price. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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05-04-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays +146 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 146 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
918 Toronto at Tampa Bay Happ & Kittredge Great spot to go against the road favorite Jays here. Toronto played 20 innings of baseball yesterday allowing 24 runs and using 11 pitchers. All but one of those hurlers threw double digit pitches, so fatigue is a real factor here. Tampa Bay on the other hand had yesterday off so every man is available. While JA Happ is a quality starter we also like Andrew Kittredge. Our numbers say this should be an even encounter, yet we are getting a nice underdog payout. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-03-18 | Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 128-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
511 Cleveland at Toronto In game one Toronto was well rested and Cleveland was coming off a grueling seven game series with Indiana. The Raptors were favored by 7 in that contest and Cleveland won it in overtime. Now the line is virtually the same despite both teams having equal rest. Toronto has really struggled against the Cavs in the postseason and we unable to distance themselves in game one. Why would anyone think something different is going to happen here? The Cavs match up well with Toronto and when Thompson is in the game the inside edge the Raptors have is negated. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-02-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
914 LA Dodgers at Arizona Ryu & Godley Want nothing to do with the Dodgers here as the team continues to lose key players. Last year LA led baseball in most games lost to the DL. This year it’s getting even worse. Now with its All-Star SS Seager out for the season, this team is really in a bind. Throw in the fact that the Dodgers can’t score enough runs to win with Kershaw shows us a fade is in order. We rate Godley 21% better than Ryu and the price in this contest is very reasonable. PLAY ARIZONA |
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05-02-18 | Brewers v. Reds +100 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
912 Milwaukee at Cincinnati Miley & Castillo The Brewers signed Wade Miley with the stipulation that if he didn’t make it onto the MLB staff by May 1st the team would have to release him. That’s the main reason why this retread is still in the league. Miley has more lives than a cat based on his performance in the big leagues. Tonight we take advantage of that with the far superior pitcher in Luis Castillo. We rate the Cincy righty a whopping 24% higher than Miley. That more than makes up for the Brewers superior bullpen. Nice price on the Reds here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
709 New Orleans at Golden State The rich get richer as Steph Curry returns to the Warriors lineup tonight. But does that make them a better team? Of course it does if he is in prime shape and gets his full allotment of minutes. But keep in mind it has been a long time since he has competed on the highest level, and the Warrior coaching staff will be looking to gradually increase his minutes. If would be devastating to this team to lose him again right before the likely occurrence of a Houston/Golden State showdown. Therefore we expect his minutes to be lessoned and his success being down from what we normally would witness. The line in the previous game was roughly 2 1/2 points lower than we find here. The Warriors pounded the Pelicans rather easily. But we expect a major effort out of the dog tonight, and the Curry return gives us extra points to play with. In successful sports betting you buy low and sell high, that’s exactly the situation we take advantage of tonight. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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04-30-18 | Rays -116 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
915 Tampa Bay at Detroit Faria & Zimmermann Rare chance to go against one of the worst starters in baseball at a decent price. We rate Jacob Faria a whopping 20% stronger than Jordan Zimmermann, and the Tampa Bay bullpen is 8% stronger than that of the Tigers. The Rays have been playing well right now, and we expect Detroit to be one of the three worst teams in baseball record wise by the end of the year. Cabrera is also questionable today which could take away one of the two productive Tigers bats. The Rays have the more complete team with the far better pitcher here. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-29-18 | A's +195 v. Astros | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
973 Oakland at Houston Cahill & Cole We think Trevor Cahill is a perfect fit for these Oakland A’s, especially pitching at home. But even in this ballpark his stuff should work well. Cole has been terrific, but he is pitching over his head when looking at career numbers. Keep in mind Pittsburgh’s PNC Park favors pitching. With the offense these A’s have this club is always a dangerous dog. This line is simply way too high. PLAY OAKLAND |
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04-29-18 | Reds +182 v. Twins | Top | 8-2 | Win | 182 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
979 Cincinnati at Minnesota Mahle & Berrios The Reds are finally snapping out of its funk after the change in managers. Both of these young starters are play on in our opinion, but the line is simply too high. Minnesota has really struggled as of late and we simply cannot pass up the opportunity to fade them in this price range. PLAY CINCINNATI |