Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-17 | Western Michigan +7.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 0 m | Show |
309 Western Michigan at Michigan State The Spartans were very good to us last week against Bowling Green. Running our three year MAC record to 12-2 with the cover. But this week we go against a Michigan State team that is overpriced in this matchup. Being a directional school in Michigan means the Broncos take special pride when playing instate competition. Thus they are 4-1 ATS the past three plus years when facing fellow Michiganders. Western Michigan is also in its best role of road underdog. Under PJ Fleck this team was 12-4 ATS in that role, and a perfect 1-0 under Tim Lester after the Broncos gave the Trojans of USC all it could handle last week. We talked about Michigan State last week being a team with something to prove off a terrible 3-9 season. They would not overlook Bowling Green and they certainly didn’t. This game is a different story. The next contest on the agenda is taking on rival Notre Dame, followed by Iowa and then instate rival Michigan. The Spartans are just 13-21 ATS as home favorites the past 5+ seasons. We look for the Broncos to take this one to the wire. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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09-05-17 | Diamondbacks +115 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
911 Arizona at LA Dodgers You rarely get a team on a long winning streak with its ace on the mound in this price range. But that’s exactly what we have here on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks are red hot and the Dodgers are just playing out the string, getting ready for the playoffs. Arizona has a whopping 35% advantage in the starters and a 12% defensive edge. LA is 5% better in the bullpen. Offensively the Dodgers own a 5% overall advantage and an 11% home/away edge. Arizona hold a slight 1% lefty/right edge. Can’t pass up this number with the visitor. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-04-17 | Twins +113 v. Rays | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
977 Minnesota at Tampa Bay Not going to fade the Twins in the underdog role, as this team is playing some of the best baseball in the league. Berrios was a prized recruit and he has been outstanding after going back down to the minors to iron out some problems. We rate him 14% better than Cobb who is having a nice season after tj surgery. The Rays have a 5% bullpen edge, while the Twins are a 9% better defensive team. While Tampa Bay owns the better hitting stats at 7% overall, 9% home/away and 5% lefty/righty, we will back to hotter team in the underdog role. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-29-17 | Rays +103 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
975 Tampa Bay at Kansas City The Rays were good to us yesterday and after holding the Royal scoreless once again we see no reason to change our approach. Kansas City has now been shutout four straight games and the players are sure to feel the pressure. Our numbers favor Junis by 3% over Cobb, but the bullpen and defense favored the Rays by 14% and 3%. The hitting is rather equal with a 3% overall edge for Tampa Bay and an 8% lefty/righty advantage. The Royals do own a slight 1% home/away advantage. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-23-17 | Rockies +119 v. Royals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
979 Colorado at Kansas City After blowing a great chance at the victory last night with the bases loaded and nobody out in the ninth, we will look for the Rockies to bounce back on Wednesday. We see advantages across the board which should make the visitor the favorite. WE rate Senzatela 21% better than Kennedy, the bullpen is 7% better and that was before the Royals closer went down with an injury yesterday. Colorado owns a 16% edge defensively as well. The hitting numbers are all virtually equal with an overall 2% Kansas City edge over our three categories. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-18-17 | Diamondbacks v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
930 Arizona at Minnesota Two pitchers having career years get together in the twin cities on Friday night as Zack Godley takes on Ervin Santana. We rate each pitcher 7 and 8% better than average. And while the analytics world waits for Santana to step back, we will ride his year of success. The bullpens combine to rank 2% better than league average and the defenses stand 9 and 11% better than average. While the hitting numbers show a combined 11% edge overall, 10% advantage home/away and a 14% combined lefty/righty edge. We expect the starters to go a long way here, especially with the Twins off a doubleheader yesterday. We make this line a full run lower than the current number. PLAY UNDER |
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08-12-17 | Rockies -105 v. Marlins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
907 Colorado at Miami Nice pitching edge all around for the Rockies as Hoffman rates 29% better than Nicotine. The bullpen has a 10% advantage while defensively Colorado is 27% superior. The offensive edges go to the Marlins by 12%, 12% and 15% advantages. The Rockies are the clearly superior team based on year to date advanced stats. Can’t turn down this price. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-01-17 | Phillies +121 v. Angels | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
977 Philadelphia at LA Angels Big pitching advantage for the Phillies here in as much as we like to find value on Nolasco, Nola rates 22% better. The Angels own the bullpen by 15% and the defense by 8%. While the Angels sweep the hitting numbers at 9% overall, 12% home/away and 4% lefty/righty. We would much rather trust the red hot Nola to shut this Angels team down. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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07-23-17 | Padres +107 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 107 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
907 San Diego at San Francisco Dinelson Lamet is the best no-name pitcher in baseball. Forget about his high era and look at his advanced stats. He’s blowing away the opposition with a strikeout rate that is elite. He should have a huge day here in this pitchers park against the struggling Giants bats. The numbers will show that we have a whopping 31% starting pitcher edge for the Padres. The bullpens also favor the visitor by 13%, along with a 14% defensive edge. The Giants own the hitting advantages of 13% overall, 20% home/away and 5% lefty/righty. We are getting the better all-around team at plus money. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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07-18-17 | Tigers -105 v. Royals | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
971 Detroit at Kansas City The pitching edges all favor the host with a 4% advantage with Wood over Boyd and a 4% bullpen advantage. The defense also favors the Royals by 9%. But offensively it’s Detroit in a landslide. 16% overall, 11% home/away and a whopping 28% lefty/righty. The Tigers rake lefties and Travis Wood is serviceable at best. Nice overlay for the visitor. PLAY DETROIT |
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07-15-17 | Rockies v. Mets -105 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
912 Colorado at NY Mets The Rockies are in a complete free fall. After jumping out to a terrific start with a group of young contact pitchers, the regression has started to take place. We have Lugo rated 2% better than Chatwood and the Mets bullpen 9% better than Colorado. The teams are equal in fielding. All the offensive numbers favor the Mets. 9% edge overall, 12% home/away and 5% lefty/righty. New York is playing inspired ball while the Rockies are holding on by a thread. PLAY NY METS |
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07-08-17 | Tigers v. Indians -150 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
970 Detroit at Cleveland Strong pitching advantages across the board for the Tribe with a 5% edge on Clevenger over Verlander, a huge 22% bullpen advantage and a 17% defensive edge. Offensively the teams are a wash with just a 3% combined advantage for Cleveland. But the major reason we like the Tribe today is that Justin Verlander has major problems against Cleveland. For two years he has talked about the Indians stealing his signs, and yet he hasn’t been able to make the needed adjustments. This year in 14.1 innings he’s allowed 18 earned runs. It’s in his head and it has affected his pitching. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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06-28-17 | Dodgers -114 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
979 LA Dodgers at LA Angels A clean sweep of the board here for the road team topped off by a 21% starting pitching advantage for Ryu over Meyer. The bullpen has a 5% edfe and an 11% advantage defensively. Offensively its all Dodgers with a 12% advantage overall, an 8% edge home/away and a 14% edge lefty/righty. The Dodgers have been the best team in baseball the past month and this line simply does not reflect that fact. PLAY LA DODGERS |
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06-27-17 | Braves v. Padres -105 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
910 Atlanta at San Diego Advantages across the board for the Padres here. A 21% edge in starters and 24% in relief. A 15% defensive edge is also present. Offensively San Diego rates 8% better overall, 10% better home and away and 11% better lefty/righty. Atlanta is 15% worse than league average hitting on the road. The Padres sweep the board here by a combined 89% according to our numbers. That’s a huge edge in this price range. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-23-17 | Rangers +108 v. Yankees | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
915 Texas at NY Yankees Not sure the Yanks should be favored here based on the inconsistency of Tanaka. We rate Darvish 25% better which is a huge starting pitcher advantage. The Yankees biggest edge is in the bullpen with a 21% edge, but you have to have the lead to get to the best of the bullpen arms. Texas is the better defensive team by 9% and own the lefty/righty advantage by 3%. But the Yanks have an overall 3% offensive edge along with a home/away advantage of 9%. Overall we are getting the much better starter at plus money. PLAY TEXAS |
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06-20-17 | Blue Jays -122 v. Rangers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -122 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
969 Toronto at Texas We rate Liriano 5% better than a league average starter, while Martinez is 23% worse than league average. That 28% edge is a key component tonight. Along with a 19% relief advantage and a 25% defensive edge points us clearly to the road team here. The hitting numbers are really a wash with Toronto owning a 2% edge overall along with a 6% lefty/righty advantage. Texas does own a 2% home/away edge. Nice line to take advantage of on Tuesday. PLAY TORONTO |
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06-19-17 | Giants -129 v. Braves | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
903 San Francisco at Atlanta Major edges across the board for the Giants here while the line is short. Cueto rates 27% better than Dickey and the bullpen is 7% stronger. Defensively SF is 21% better. Hitting is all Giants with an 8% overall edge with 4% and 11% advantages in home/away and lefty/righty numbers. San Francisco has had terrible BABIP luck the last five games as opponents are posting an outrageous .455 BABIP number. Keep in mind league average is roughly .298. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-17-17 | Cardinals +102 v. Orioles | Top | 7-15 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
929 St Louis at Baltimore The Orioles continue to find ways to lose and today we get a chance to fade them at an excellent price. We grade Wainwright as 9% better than Miley who is due for some major regression when looking at the advanced stats. The bullpen is 21% better for the Cards and the defense 12% stronger. The offensive numbers are a wash as Baltimore has 1, 2 and 0% advantages across the board. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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06-12-17 | Mariners +115 v. Twins | Top | 14-3 | Win | 115 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
961 Seattle at Minnesota While we are not very high on either starting pitcher our numbers have Gallardo 17% better than the young Mejia. The Seattle bullpen grads out 11% better while the defenses show a 12% Mariners edge. The offensive numbers come out to be a wash but Seattle hits lefties 11% better than league average. Wrong team favored here. PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-10-17 | Twins v. Giants -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
980 Minnesota at San Francisco As much as we like young Twins starter Berrios, the value is all on the side of the Giants here. A major starting pitcher edge along with an 11% relief advantage. A 33% defensive edge is key, along with 7, 8 and 3% offensive advantages across our three categories. Berrios has a bright future but he’s being overpriced in this contest with the veteran Samardzija. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-09-17 | Royals v. Padres -110 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
928 Kansas City at San Diego While the Padres are clearly a lesser team this season, the Royals aren’t much better, especially offensively. We prefer the veteran Chacin over the rookie Skoglund by a 17% advantage. The Padres bullpen also shows a slight 3% edge, while defense shows a 13% edge for the host. When it comes to hitting San Diego has a 10% edge overall as Kansas City is 15% worse than league average. San Diego has a 12% advantage in home/away numbers and also a 12% edge in righty/lefty stats. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-05-17 | Giants -112 v. Brewers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
905 San Francisco at Milwaukee 31% starting pitching edge for the Giants. Jeff Samardzia has positive xfip indicators while Junior Guerra has been very fortunately with his ERA. The Giants also own a 4% edge in the bullpen and a 27% defensive advantage. Offensive edges are 4% overall, even in our home/away stats and 11% vs right handed starters. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-02-17 | Indians -107 v. Royals | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
973 Cleveland at Kansas City Two similar pitchers take the mound today and we get to take advantage of some major regression. Tomlin had gotten off to a terrible start while Vargas was hot out of the gate. Now we get a very favorable line based on that perception. Tomlin has been much better as of late as he is rounding into form, while Vargas is starting to pitch more in line with his career numbers. Our stats show Cleveland with a 20% edge at starter and 18% advantage in the bullpen. Hitting is all Cleveland with edges of 8, 6 and 9% across the board. Defense is also better with the Tribe by 17%. It’s rare we see a team sweep the entire board and are priced in this range. Let’s go Tribe! PLAY CLEVELAND |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
701 Cleveland at Golden State The Cavaliers build its team this year in order to match up better with the Warriors in the full court game. Shooters abound from downtown and Kyrie and LeBron both have the ability to get into the lane. The problem is that Cleveland only has one defensive stopper and Tristan Thompson will likely matchup with Kevin Durant, which will pull him away from the basket. If you watched the first three rounds it was clear that Cleveland couldn’t rotate on three point shooters, but fortunately the opposition couldn’t hit a wide open shot. That won’t be the case here as the Warriors live for this wide open floor game. We expect this opening game to be a shootout with the Warriors continually pressing the issue. PLAY OVER |
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05-23-17 | Rockies -131 v. Phillies | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
953 Colorado at Philadelphia Major starting pitcher edge here as Marquez rates 23% better than the very mediocre at best Zach Eflin. The bullpen numbers also show a nice 11 point advantage for the Rockies. Defensively Colorado dominates the Phils grading out at 10% above league average, while Philadelphia comes in 18% worse than a league average ball club. The offensive numbers come out virtually even, which gives us a major overlay on the visitor. PLAY COLORADO |
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05-15-17 | Rays v. Indians -142 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
958 Tampa Bay at Cleveland Carlos Carrasco has been on quite a roll and the price seems like a bargain with the Tribe on Monday. The bullpen edge is a whopping 32% between these teams and 18% defensively. Cleveland also hits 9% better than league average at home. Add it all up and we see the Rays struggling to put anything on the board against the Tribe. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-07-17 | Yankees v. Cubs -127 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
980 New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs We don’t normally see this type of value in a nationally televised contest. But the Yankees have been the talk of baseball this season. Young players across the roster have been outperforming expectations, which gives us quite an edge here. We much prefer Lester over Severino and the Cubs lefty has been virtually unbeatable at home. Despite the back end of the Yankee bullpen, the Cubs are loaded through out the relieving corps. Offensively Chicago is 20% better than the Yankees and vs lefty/righty matchups the Cubs have a 24% edge. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-03-17 | Raptors +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
731 Toronto at Cleveland So Cleveland was bet down from 7 to 6 in the series opener despite the fact that the Cavaliers had a huge advantage in rest and practice time. Our clients cashed wire to wire with Cleveland in that opener. But now in what would be a classic zig zag situation the line has opened at Cleveland -7 1/2. That’s simply the wrong opening number as Cleveland doesn’t have that rest advantage here. We expect this series to go seven games and while the Gators may not get the outright win here, the side will never be in doubt. Look for Toronto to be right there with Cleveland the entire game as this one goes down to the buzzer. PLAY TORONTO |
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05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
724 Toronto at Cleveland While it will be a defensive problem for Cleveland keeping up with the Toronto guards, the extra preparation time helps the Cavs most in this game one contest. That advantage simply won’t be there once the Raptors make game two adjustments. Teams with extra rest have a huge advantage in the playoffs, and the Raptors were pushed to six games in the previous series. Toronto has a real chance to knock off Cleveland in this series, but game one will be all Cavaliers. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-29-17 | Angels v. Rangers -154 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
972 LA Angels at Texas We normally don’t like to release plays that are in this price range. But in this case the line is simply too short. Every edge in this game is with the Rangers. A 32% edge at starting pitcher, 14% edge in the bullpen, the defense has a whopping 23% advantage, 21% offensively and 15% when breaking it down home & away. Simply put we are getting a $2 favorite at a very cheap price. PLAY TEXAS |
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04-23-17 | Cavs -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
509 Cleveland at Indiana We’ve successfully faded the Cavaliers twice in this series, but now is the time to back LeBron and company. Up 3-0 and going for a sweep the veteran team knows the value of rest, so it will go all out to end this series on Sunday. Teams down 3-0 have a habit of giving up, knowing winning four straight games isn’t going to happen. Especially the way the Pacers blew game three after having a 26 point lead. Cleveland took out Kyrie and Love, their two worst defenders and completely shut down this Indiana offense. James is excellent in first round games and his winning streak in those contests continues on Sunday. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-17-17 | Pacers +8.5 v. Cavs | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
517 Indiana at Cleveland If you joined us over the weekend there is no need to elaborate on our feelings about the Cavs. The team hasn’t played well since the All-Star break and it just isn’t going to flip the switch because it’s the playoffs. The same Cleveland team we have seen in the regular season showed up in the opening game. Still the Cavs once again took money for this matchup. Bettors must be playing the due system. Indiana has to have gained confidence in that first matchup as it was played at Cleveland’s pace and yet the Pacers had a shot to win it at the buzzer. No reason to back Cleveland here as it was more of the same from the regular season. PLAY INDIANA |
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04-15-17 | Pacers +8.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-109 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
501 Indiana at Cleveland Spending over 35 years in the Cleveland/Akron area we are still fans of our local Cavaliers and Indians teams. We watch virtually every game played by these teams and know them as well as anyone outside the organizations. So we can tell you that the Cavaliers are not the same team as the squad who took home the crown last season. Defense has been nonexistent this season and teams that lack defense don’t advance in the NBA Playoffs. While the big three has had a solid season the remainder of the team has regressed. None of the bench players have looked good and JR Smith is nowhere near the player on both ends as he was last season. Indiana is not as good as Cleveland but this team has fought all year to get here and an outright series victory would not be a shock. That said there is no way we can lay this type of number with a Cleveland team that thinks it can turn it on in the playoffs. The Cavs may win but this number is just too high. PLAY INDIANA |
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03-30-17 | Cavs v. Bulls +6 | Top | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
704 Cleveland at Chicago Want no part of the Cavaliers here as the defensive sieve has made this team tough to back laying points. It also doesn’t help that no matter the personnel Cleveland has a hard time beating the Bulls. Chicago has won 6 of the last 7 meetings, while covering six straight. In each of those six games Chicago was installed as the underdog, and the Bulls won outright five of those six meetings. Cleveland plays again tomorrow against Philadelphia and the Cavs have been terrible in the second of a back to back game. Therefore it wouldn’t surprise me to see Cleveland extend the bench minutes a bit tonight. Chicago has had the last three days off and is idol tomorrow. Cleveland will have its full attention. PLAY CHICAGO |
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03-29-17 | Hawks -1 v. 76ers | Top | 99-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
501 Atlanta at Philadelphia The Hawks broke their seven game losing streak last night with a 95-91 home victory over Phoenix. Now the team has to fly to Philadelphia to take on a Sixers team coming off a road victory over Brooklyn. While a lot of teams take the Sixers for granted that won’t be the case tonight for the Hawks. First of all this team is still fighting for playoff seeding, and the recent losing streak has put them in a poor situation. The good news is they have owned Philadelphia this year. Wins by 32, 21 and 17 points. We like to take teams that need a victory when playing a squad it has dominated. Throw in the fact that Philly returns home off a five game road trip, and then plays the next two games on the road. The Sixers will have played nine straight games all in different arenas by the time this current streak is over. PLAY ATLANTA |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida -3.5 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
722 South Carolina & Florida The major key here is that this will be the third time Florida has faced this highly physical ball hawking defense of the Gamecocks. The first time South Carolina had the advantage but last time Florida held the super hand after have time to prepare. Now on short rest it’s the Gators who have the advantage once again. Every team that faced the Gamecocks in the Big Dance talked about not being prepared for this terrific defense. In fact, South Carolina had tremendous success this season in first meetings. But that hasn’t carried over when teams plays the Gamecocks a second time. Florida is well prepared for what it will see here, and wins going away. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-25-17 | Wizards v. Cavs OVER 215 | Top | 127-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
503 Washington at Cleveland Prime opportunity to look for a high scoring game between these two Eastern Conference playoff participants. Washington is playing to avenge a loss to Cleveland that broke a 17 game home winning streak. The Wizards want to beat the Cavs badly as it’s a proving ground for the playoffs. Cleveland has been terrible in the second of back to back games, and is must likely without LeBron James tonight because of a poked eye last night in Charlotte. Without LeBron and his defense the Cavs will be led by Kyrie and Kevin, two excellent offensive players with major defensive liabilities. With Wall and Irving looking to push the pace we see this game easily surpassing the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
876 UCLA & Kentucky Revenge game for the Wildcats who lost to UCLA 97-92 earlier at home. We really like the improvement in this Wildcat defense which has held 12 straight opponents to 77 points or less. In fact, just two of those opponents surpassed 70. This is a very young team as you would expect for Calipare, and the team has continually gotten better on the season. This is just the second same season revenge game for Kentucky, in the other it beat Tennessee by 25 points. UCLA is an outstanding shooting team but rarely plays the type of athletes Kentucky produces. Coming off the likes of Kent State and Cincinnati, this is a major step up game for the Bruins. Wrong team favored here. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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03-23-17 | Clippers v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 95-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
806 LA Clippers at Dallas The Clips are stepping up in class here after facing the Lakers, Knicks and Cavs minus the big three. Before those contests LA dropped three straight against quality opponents in Utah, Milwaukee and Denver. Dallas is making a late run for the playoffs and have won 16 of 27 in the process. Coming off an ugly 25 point home loss to Golden State after four straight away, this is a very good spot for the host. With the Clippers, Raptors and Thunder on deck it’s do or die time for the Mavericks. PLAY DALLAS |
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03-19-17 | Michigan v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 73-69 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
722 Michigan & Louisville The Cinderella story for the Wolverines ends on Sunday. After surviving the airplane scare the Wolverines went all the way to the Big Ten Championship and crowned the school the Conference Champions. Then had to go to the wire to defeat Oklahoma State by one in a back and forth game on Friday. In that contest Michigan has four players who had at least 38 1/2 minutes of playing time. I know kids at this age are durable, but this has to have an affect on their bodies. Louisville had an easy time in its first game as the Cardinals pulled away in the second half in a game that was never in doubt. The Cards are a very good defensive team that will give Michigan plenty of trouble here. The line is cheap on the better team. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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03-14-17 | Boise State +10.5 v. Utah | Top | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
561 Boise State at Utah The Mountain West was down this year but this line is a few points too high. Boise is a good shooting team with 52.2% effective field goals. In fact, when subtracting the 48.2% allowed the Broncos have a solid 4.0% edge in effective field goal shooting. Keep in mind this is a team that went to Oregon and lost by just 5 points, and beat SMU at home by 9. Utah had a 20 win season but had problems losing games it should have won. Defeats against California twice, Oregon State, Stanford and San Francisco, all teams not invited to the Big Dance. Utah has dropped 5 of 10 entering this contest, with three of those wins by single digits. Too many points here. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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03-07-17 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -4.5 | Top | 56-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
716 St Mary’s & Gonzaga We’ve been waiting for this matchup as the betting public and ourselves are at opposite ends regarding the Gaels. Gonzaga has won 11 of the last 13 meetings and this year the difference in quality of these teams is the largest in quite some time. The Gaels haven’t beaten a team heading to the dance since early December. The two meetings against the Zags resulted in losses by 23 and 10 points. Coming off a complete blowout over BYU this team is clearly overrated here. Lay the number with the Zags who are still looking for a #1 seed. PLAY GONZAGA |
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03-06-17 | College of Charleston v. North Carolina Wilmington UNDER 146 | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
534 College of Charleston & NC Wilmington These two will battle it out for the lone invite to the Big Dance. The total in this game seems rather high considering none of the past nine games surpassed this current total. With the importance of this game we would expect the defenses to give a better effort. Also this is the third game in three days for both teams, so the jump shots could very well come up short. PLAY UNDER |
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03-04-17 | Jacksonville State v. Tennessee-Martin UNDER 137.5 | Top | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
702 Jacksonville State & Tennessee-Martin Gamecocks coming into the Championship off a shocking win over conference powerhouse Belmont. Martin knocked off Murray State for the second time in a week to get to this point. This game pits the #2 and #4 seeds in the tournament. While this conference is known for its offense we are going to look for a slower paced game here on Saturday. Pressure of the win and go dancing of this game gives the defenses the edge. PLAY UNDER |
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03-01-17 | Nevada v. San Jose State +7 | Top | 82-67 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
568 Nevada at San Jose State Major sandwich spot here for the Wolf Pack after blowing out in-state rival UNLV with a major game vs Colorado State on deck to end the regular season. Nevada is 12-4 in conference and 23-6 overall but this is likely going to be a one bid conference. Colorado State is 13-4 in the Mountain West and 21-9 overall so that game on Saturday will go a long way for postseason play for both those teams. San Jose State is a solid 7-9 in league action this year and a hell of a lot better team than a year ago. With a 14-13 record and a trip to Wyoming on deck this team will be fighting extremely hard to get a victory, assuring a winning regular season. We look for this game to go down to the wire. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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02-25-17 | Southern Miss v. North Texas -5 | Top | 76-53 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
562 Southern Miss at North Texas The Golden Eagles are not a deep team at all which is why it has played well on long rest and very poorly on short rest. On Thursday this team laid it all on the line at a 15 point underdog at Rice and took the Owls to the wire in a 72-71 loss. Now less than 48 hours later this club is at North Texas in a competitively priced game. Southern Miss is 0-14 straight up this season when facing a team away from home. North Texas is seeking revenge for a 76-65 loss earlier at Southern Miss. While the Mean Green are only 8-19 on the season its effective field goal difference is only -3.0% on the year, compared to the Golden Eagles -7.8%. Cheap line with the host here as North Texas wins by double digits. PLAY NORTH TEXAS |
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02-25-17 | Texas Tech +7 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 63-80 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
549 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State Nice price here on the road underdog Red Raiders who are stepping down in class after facing Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia and Iowa State. Not to mention seeking revenge for an embarrassing 19 point home loss to these Cowboys. Despite a lowly 5-10 conference record Texas Tech is 17-11 on the season with a 3.2% effective field goal advantage over the opposition. Oklahoma State is 19-9 and 8-7 in Big12 action but owns a lesser 2.0% effective field goal edge on the season. Revenge time for the Red Raiders. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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02-20-17 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia -7 | Top | 54-48 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
704 Miami Florida at Virginia Miami has won 2 of the last 7 in this series although these teams have split 3-3 ATS in Virginia. Miami is playing pretty good ball right now, especially defensively allowing just 47.1% effective field goals on the season. Virginia has the same conference record of 8-6 as the Hurricanes, but the Cavaliers have dropped three straight heading into this contest. With losses to North Carolina, Duke and Virginia Tech the betting public has soured on the defensive minded Cavs. But keep in mind this team has a 7.9 effective field goal advantage, shooting 54.0 and allowing 46.1. Those numbers cannot be denied. We made this line 11.4 which gives us a huge edge in this one, as we for one haven’t abandoned the Cavaliers. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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02-19-17 | Rider v. Iona -8 | Top | 103-85 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
880 Rider at Iona Iona is 14-3 SU in this seres and 12-6 ATS. Iona is 8-5 ATS as the series host. The Gaels sit at 11-6 in conference and 18-10 overall. Iona has won 8 of 10 but split the last four games heading into this contest. It won 95-76 less than three weeks ago at Rider. Rider is 14-14 overall and 7-10 on the MAAC. The Broncs play solid defense but lack a scoring punch. In the last three weeks not only did it surrender 95 to this Iona team but 107 in a win at Quinnipiac. That’s a sign that this defense is tiring. After losses in 9 of 12 heading into this contest we can’t expect that stop unit to rebound here on the road. PLAY IONA |
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02-18-17 | Charlotte v. Old Dominion -9 | Top | 48-72 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
618 Charlotte at Old Dominion Getting this one early as we expect it to move. We made this 15.6 and the opener was 9.0. Huge lay for the host. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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02-17-17 | Princeton v. Yale +3 | Top | 71-52 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
862 Princeton at Yale Princeton has come up short the last five times visiting Yale ATS. The team is sitting at a perfect 8-0 in conference this is not going to be an easy game for the Tigers. Princeton only beat Yale by eight earlier at home. The Bulldogs are a solid 6-2 in conference with the two losses coming at Princeton and last time out here against Harvard. That’s the only home loss this season for Yale. We have the Bulldogs rated as the favorite here and we are catching points. Can’t pass this one up with the quality Bulldogs team. PLAY YALE |
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02-16-17 | Colorado v. Oregon State +10.5 | Top | 60-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
744 Colorado at Oregon State The Buffaloes enter here having won 5 of 6 as of late, but in our opinion the line has been over adjusted. The home win over Oregon is legit, but the other victories came against lesser opposition. Oregon State is winless in conference and 4-22 overall on the season. But this is an opponent the Beavers can handle. It only lost by 7 earlier in Colorado. This time of year the books inflate the numbers against weak opponents which is why we find plenty of value here with the home dog. Just too many points for the Buffs to lay. PLAY OREGON STATE |
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02-15-17 | St. John's v. Butler -10.5 | Top | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
564 St Johns at Butler The Johnnies are treading water right now having split each of its last eight games with losses following wins. Last time out St Johns beat Seton Hall at home and have Marquette on the road on deck. Butler had been cruising along with an 18-3 record before dropping 3 of the last 4 contests. Losses to Providence, Creighton and Georgetown sandwiched between a victory over Marquette. We like to back superior teams after hitting a rough spot, especially at home. Throw in the fact that this is a revenge game for the Bulldogs as it lost 76-73 back at the end of December. Butler has lost back to back home games and this line is very cheap in our eyes. We look for a blowout! PLAY BUTLER |
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02-14-17 | Marist v. St. Peter's -12 | Top | 46-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
758 Marist at St Peters The Red Foxes are just 3-12 in the MAAC this season and have lost seven straight heading into this contest. The last time these two met was on January 26th in a 81-65 home loss for Marist. St Peters is a solid 10-6 in league action and have won 8 of 12 heading into this contest. We made the Peacocks a bigger favorite here than the current line and have no problem laying points into a Red Foxes team playing out the string. PLAY ST PETERS |
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02-11-17 | BYU +3.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 68-52 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
887 BYU at San Francisco The Cougars have won eight straight in this series and this is a key game for both squads. BYU beat San Francisco by 10 at home a month ago and the Cougars normally travel well but are just 2-4 SU on the road this season. That said defense travels and BYU allows a solid 46.7 effective field goal percentage. The Dons have run off 7 of 8 straight up heading into this one, losing at ST Mary’s by 20. San Francisco is a good shooting team but have beaten up on the lesser teams in this conference. We make the Cougars a road favorite of 2.4 here, so obviously we feel the wrong team is favored. PLAY BYU |
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02-10-17 | Nuggets +2 v. Knicks | Top | 131-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
855 Denver at New York Well aware that Gallinari is out tonight for the Nuggets, but the line still favors the road team. The current number says the Nuggets are only one point better on a neutral. Denver enters this game having won 9 of 15, while cashing 6 of 7 when installed as the better team. New York on the other hand has won just 6 of 25 games heading into action tonight. The only wins in the last two weeks came against Charlotte and Brooklyn, likely the two worst teams in the NBA over that span. The Knicks are winless on this home stand with San Antonio on deck. The need is there for the host but the ability has left the building. PLAY DENVER |
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02-07-17 | Syracuse v. Clemson -3 | Top | 82-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
738 Syracuse at Clemson The Orangemen are getting a lot of press after beating the likes of Florida State and Virginia in the last ten days. But keep in mind this team is only 1-5 straight up on the road this season with the only win coming against NC State. Syracuse has dropped 3 of the 4 meetings with the Tigers SU & ATS. Clemson is coming in off a total embarrassment at Florida State, losing by a whopping 48 points. You can bet this Clemson team will be primed for retribution here. PLAY CLEMSON |
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02-07-17 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -6.5 | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
730 Wake Forest at Notre Dame The Demon Deacons have dropped the last three meetings all by double digits. Wake is just 4-5 SU on the road this year. Off back to back wins over the likes of Boston College and Georgia Tech we don’t believe this team has the ability to step up in class here. Wake allows opponents 51.7 effective field goal which is a problem especially on the road. The Irish shoot 6.2% better than the opposition in effective field goals. Coming in here off four straight losses this is a must win contest for the host. The last two times Notre Dame played on this court resulted in losses. The only two home losses this season. The Irish should give its best effort of the season tonight. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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02-05-17 | Nebraska +6 v. Iowa | Top | 70-81 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
863 Nebraska at Iowa The Cornhuskers have dropped 6 of 7 as of late which gives us a nice advantage on the road here. Even in losses this team has been very competitive. Nebraska beat Iowa earlier at home 93-90 as a 2 1/2 point favorite. Iowa itself has lost 3 of 5 with the victories coming against an inconsistent Ohio State team and a poor Rutgers squad. Despite the revenge motive we can’t back this Hawkeyes team laying points. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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01-31-17 | Manhattan v. Fairfield -2.5 | Top | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
764 Manhattan at Fairfield The Jaspers have picked up its play in the MAAC since losing at home to Fairfield 97-79 early in the month. But in our opinion this line is very short for the host. Despite dropping 5 of 6 we still have the Stags rated as the better team. Fairfield has also cashed 5 of the last 6 meetings hosting Manhattan. Off a confidence building win over Marist we will back the Stags to sweep the season series. PLAY FAIRFIELD |
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01-30-17 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma +2 | Top | 68-66 | Push | 0 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
526 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma The Cowboys enter this game as the much hotter team, but this club has really struggled in Norman. The Sooners have cashed 7 straight in this building against Oklahoma State and have won the last seven games between them in straight up fashion. The Cowboys enter play off three great defensive wins against Arkansas, TCU and Texas Tech. But keep in mind it had lost six straight heading into that threesome. Oklahoma is down this year which is something you just can’t overlook. By even so this is still a top 60 squad getting points at home against a hated rival. History has shown that the Sooners rise up in this matchup and we agree the host is the side here. Coming off an embarrassing 32 point loss on this court last time out against Florida, we see a big bounce back here. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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01-27-17 | Wizards +4 v. Hawks | Top | 112-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
863 Washington at Atlanta The Wizards just had a showdown with Boston that mean’t a great deal to this team, but the line adjustment isn’t warranted. That game was three days ago, plenty of time to get ready for a top contender for the playoffs. Washington has cashed 7 straight and is now on a 19-6 spread run. The first two meetings showed by the closing line that Atlanta graded out as 1 and 1 1/2 points better. Since that time it’s clear to us that the Wizards are playing much better ball, yet this line has them in the same price range. Just in the last two weeks the Hawks were in the same price range at home against Chicago and Milwaukee, Washington is playing far better ball than those two. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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01-25-17 | Heat v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
506 Miami at Brooklyn Tough spot for the Heat here after upsetting the best team in the NBA and now facing the worst. A trip to Chicago is on deck against former All-Star Wade. Miami has won exactly once on the road since December 9th, yet it is expected to not only win but cover tonight in Brooklyn. The Heat have only been favored in this range once all season, 7 1/2 points better than Philadelphia in November. Miami actually lost that game straight up 101-94. This is not the kind of role the Heat have had success in. Brooklyn has this game sandwiched between San Antonio and Cleveland. The Nets are 12-8 ATS on the season when playing a team 6-10 points better than it is. PLAY BROOKLYN |
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01-24-17 | Clippers v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 110-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
708 LA Clippers at Philadelphia Both teams will be without its best players tonight as Paul and Embiid are on the sidelines. Blake Griffin returns to the lineup for the Clippers which is a major reason why this line has jumped from the overnights. But is having him back with tons of rust a good thing? The Clippers went all out yesterday in an impressive win at Atlanta, now its playing in the second game of a back to back against a younger team with fresh legs. LA also has hated rival Golden State on deck. Before playing the Warriors or Cavaliers this year, (The two teams in the NBA Finals) LA has really struggled. How bout losing outright to Brooklyn as a 10 1/2 point favorite, and losing outright to Indiana as an 11 1/2 point chalk. The Sixers have won 8 of its last 11 games in straight up fashion. When playing a team that is 6-10 points better on a neutral Philadelphia has cashed 13 of 20. The Sixers are a team on the rise and its used to not playing with Embiid this season as the team rests him in back to back games. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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01-22-17 | Warriors v. Magic +13.5 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
832 Golden State at Orlando Tough spot for the Warriors in the first of a back to back night, after facing Cleveland, Oklahoma City and Houston. Golden State is just 10-19 ATS on the season when favored over a team that is 11 points or worse power rated. Orlando is a solid 8-4 ATS when playing a team that is 6 or more points better on a neutral. The current line says that the Warriors are 16 points better in this matchup. With Orlando in the middle of a three game home stand we will back the home dog in an early start contest. PLAY ORLANDO |
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01-21-17 | Blazers v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 127-123 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
502 Portland at Boston Blazers in the second game of a back to back after going to the wire at Philadelphia last night. This is the third game in four days and the final game on this four game trip. Portland can look forward to a five game home stand that starts on Wednesday. Boston is off a home loss to the Knicks. The Celtics have been an excellent 16-7 ATS when playing a team 0-5 points weaker than itself. This is the only Boston game in a five day span. PLAY BOSTON |
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01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
308 Green Bay at Dallas The first time these two played all the talk was about the Cowboys running game against the Packers run defense. Dallas won that battle and we expect more of the same here. Dallas has multiple offensive weapons while the Packers will be playing shorthanded at receiver without Jordy Nelson. We trust the Dallas defense over the Packers, and the extra week of rest should be a big advantage for the host. PLAY DALLAS |
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01-14-17 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -7 | Top | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
672 St Marys at Gonzaga This rivalry battle comes down to who can dictate the pace. St Mary wants to slow the ball down ranking 350th in the country in adjusted tempo, while the Zags are more middle of the pack. The home team and or favorite normally dictate pace and the would be Gonzaga on both counts. The Zags have dominated this series with its biggest league rival, and St Mary has played the easier schedule of these two. We will ride the host to win this one by double digits. PLAY GONZAGA |
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01-12-17 | Purdue v. Iowa +5 | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
560 Purdue at Iowa The Boilermakers have been the better team as of late and it still struggles with the Hawkeyes, especially on the road. Iowa has been favored just twice in the last ten meetings, yet it has won five of those games outright. At home Iowa has cashed 7 of 8 games including outright underdog wins as 5, 9 and 14 1/2 point underdogs. Purdue has just one outright win in a true road game all season and that was by a single point at Ohio State. Iowa was blown out at Purdue just two weeks ago, we see revenge for the host here. PLAY IOWA |
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01-10-17 | Cavs -2 v. Jazz | Top | 92-100 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
511 Cleveland at Utah Terrible scheduling spot for the Jazz here who return home from a five game eastern road trip. The Utah offense has really struggled as of late scoring 79, 94 and 93 points. Through December 21st which is the last day we charted this angle, teams off a 5+ game road trip were 7-13 ATS this season. It’s been a consistent winner year in and year out. Utah is also a poor 1-7 ATS on the season when playing a team that is 0-5 points better than them. The current line last the Cavs five points the superior team. Throw in the fact that Cleveland is off back to back games in which it blew sizable leads, and we have a Cavs team with something to prove. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
152 Clemson & Alabama in Tampa We played Clemson in this game last year and walked away with the cash. But we’ve watched every Tigers game this year and this team isn’t as strong as a year ago. The defense remains solid but the offense has been very inconsistent. The line advantage that the Tigers had over Ohio State will not be repeated here as Clemson and Alabama have the two best combined offensive and defensive lines in college football. On the season Clemson is 1-4 ATS when losing the turnover battle while Alabama is 4-1 ATS. That’s a sizable edge for the Tide in a game where turnovers will determine the winner. Going in to last week the consensus line on this game was anywhere from 9 to 11. Based on Clemson playing its best game of the season this line has dropped about three points. The line value is on the favorite and we will lay the points with the Tide. PLAY ALABAMA |
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01-08-17 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
539 Ohio State at Minnesota The Buckeyes have won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series and enter here off back to back 5 and 1 point losses to Illinois and Purdue. With a trip to Wisconsin on deck this is an early season must win spot for the Buckeyes. Minnesota enters with an outstanding 14-2 record on the season, winning 8 of the last 9. After road wins at Purdue and Northwestern this club enters play tonight fat and happy. But keep in mind both of these teams have played better on the road than at home this season, so we feel this line is a bit inflated. Look for this one to come down to the wire. PLAY OHIO STATE |
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01-07-17 | San Diego State v. Boise State -3 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
878 San Diego State at Boise State The Aztecs have owned the Mountain West Conference for years, but Boise has really given them problems as of late. The Broncos have won 3 of the last 4 meetings with defense showing the way in each showdown. When looking at how these teams have done when stepping up this year we find San Diego State 1-2 when facing Top 100 Programs. Losing to Gonzaga badly and Nevada last time out. In fact, if you extend that another ten spots it includes losses to 109 New Mexico and 103 Arizona State. Boise has split top opponents with a win over 28 SMU and a loss at 18 Oregon. Boise has held the Aztecs to 63, 56, 46 and 46 points the last four contests. They get it done again tonight. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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01-05-17 | Murray State +5.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 76-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
797 Murray State at Jacksonville State The Racers have won 19 out of 20 meetings in this series with the lone loss coming by a single point. While Murray State has struggled on the road our power ratings and overall rankings have the Racers as the better team. Jacksonville State has played an amazingly daunting schedule with this being its second true home game of the season. So while this will be an inspired home fanbase, you have to keep in mind the Gamecocks have played just one more game in this building than tonights opponent. We will take the points here and let history be our guide with the better team. PLAY MURRAY STATE |
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01-03-17 | Jazz v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
704 Utah at Boston Jazz are on a nice current run winning four straight games. The problem has been the opponents have been the weakest teams in the league. Brooklyn, Phoenix, Philadelphia and the Lakers. The Jazz played last night in Brooklyn and are unrested, while Boston has had the last three days off. Utah is just 1-5 ATS on the season when playing a team 0-5 points better than them on a neutral court. Boston is playing well as the team starts to get healthy. Winning 7 of 9 with the losses to Oklahoma and Cleveland. The Celtics are 12-5 ATS on the year playing teams they are 0-5 points better. Look for the rested Celts to prevail. PLAY BOSTON |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +8 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
280 USC & Penn State Both teams finished the regular season as two of the hottest teams in the nation. Both as we often see that hot streak no longer exists this far between games. It happens all the time in the NFL with a bye week, so you can imagine what happens in a January Bowl Game. USC played Stanford, Utah, Colorado and Washington this year. None of those teams in the PAC12 covered the number in its bowl game. We have these two clubs rated about as close as two bowl teams could be, with Southern Cal gaining a small home edge because of the location. In the key numbers we use we have the following: In season long explosive plays Penn State has the edge 3.0 per game to 1.6. In the last four regular season games Penn State is also ahead 17-5. When comparing the teams spread records when losing the turnover battle USC is 3-2 and Penn State is 2-2. When losing the sack battle Penn State is 0-1 ATS and USC comes in at 1-2. So as you can see these two clubs are almost identical in our power ratings. With the Nittany Lions knowing it can finish the season ranked #3 with the losses of Washington, Michigan and Ohio State. We will take the generous points with Penn State. PLAY PENN STATE |
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01-01-17 | Browns v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
320 Cleveland at Pittsburgh The Browns celebrated as if it won the Super Bowl last week when it upset the Chargers at home. That marked the first win of the season for Cleveland and got the huge monkey of its back. Because of that relieved pressure we can’t see this team looking forward to taking on the physical Steelers with vacation time on deck. Pittsburgh is resting many key starters but the winning philosophy will not change for the host. Pittsburgh is a winning organization from ownership on down, while the Browns are the complete opposite. This line moved 12 points from the lookahead because of the Steelers clinching playoff position. That’s simply too much of a move with the Pittsburgh backups being just as good as these Browns starters. Cheap line for the Steelers here who enter the playoffs with a double digit victory. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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12-30-16 | Florida State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
265 Florida State & Michigan at Miami We had Florida State ranked second in the country in our preseason power ratings. We were asking too much from this team with a freshman starter. After being blown out by upstart Louisville the Seminoles were put on the back burner by many. But as the season transpired the Seminoles started to get noticed again in the betting markets, finishing the regular season cashing 4 of 5. Michigan has a solid defense but played one of the weakest offense opponent slates in the country. This will be the best offensive unit the Wolverines have faced all year. And we worry about this Michigan offense who put up big numbers against weak opposition. The best defenses it faced were Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State. In those three games the Wolverines tallied 54 points and that included two overtimes against Ohio State. This one comes down to the wire and we will side with the better skill players of Florida State. PLAY FLORIDA STATE |
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12-30-16 | TCU -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
257 TCU & Georgia in Memphis Much prefer the Horned Frogs here who are 30-21-2 ATS when Gary Patterson has extra time to prepare. This is a team that took a great deal of money in the Game of the Year lines down at the Golden Nugget Sportsbook. It was the most bet on team by the wise guys with a maximum bet of $1,000. Unfortunately this team underperformed all season with a 3-8 ATS mark against FBS opposition. The other two teams with three or less covers were Baylor and Southern Miss, both spread covering teams in the bowl season. With time to reflect on this disappointing season we expect the Horned Frogs to come to play on Friday. Georgia can’t be too excited for this bowl draw after back to back ten win seasons. Kirby Smart has a quality defense in his first season in Athens, but the offense is lacking. There than Alabama the rest of the SEC was really down this year. We’ve already seen Mississippi State struggle with a middling MAC team, and Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and South Carolina lose outright. The line moved towards the Horned Frogs late, and we agree with the move. PLAY TCU |
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12-29-16 | South Florida v. South Carolina +10.5 | Top | 46-39 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
252 South Florida & South Carolina at Birmingham Willie Taggart is off to Oregon with his top assistants, Charlie Strong will not be involved in this game. Therefore you have a sizable favorite here with an inexperienced coaching staff. South Carolina is a sizable SEC underdog, something rarely seen. It also owns the far better defensive unit. We like the job Will Muschamp has done here and this bowl game is a nice reward for a team expected to finish in last place in its division. Take the generous points with the Gamecocks. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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12-28-16 | Pacers v. Wizards -5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
702 Indiana at Washington Pacers just beat the Wizards 107-105 just over a week ago in Indiana. Since that time it has dropped three straight to New York, Boston and Chicago. Overall 6 of the last 7 games the Pacers failed to cover. Washington is playing much better ball as of late winning 7 of 10 and cashing 8 of those contests. In the midst of a three game home stand we will back the Wizards here to get quick revenge. Washington has posted a 7-2 ATS mark when playing similar power rating opponents. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota +10 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
240 Washington State & Minnesota This line has risen based on the suspension of 10 Golden Gophers, two of them starters. Our line with the full lineups would have been Washington State -4. Therefore we are getting six extra points for a team playing with purpose. We always like to play on teams with suspensions as it galvanizes the squad. We will take the generous points here with a quality defensive unit. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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12-24-16 | Chargers -4 v. Browns | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
117 San Diego at Cleveland Once again the wise guys have shown up to back the Browns. How’s that worked out for them this season? I admit that I had backed Cleveland on occasion and I still have the betting tickets to prove it. But now that the line has dropped this week we can come in on the Chargers. We are well aware that its a poor spot for San Diego, traveling across the country to play an early game. But the Browns have not shown up against teams in bad spots all season. Nobody wants to be known as the team that lost to the Browns, so we feel the Chargers will be well prepared. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
222 Eastern Michigan & Old Dominion at Nassau Not surprised by Old Dominion money coming in as of late as we made this line 5 points higher than the opener. Eastern Michigan won 7 total games the past four seasons, and have really improved this year under Chris Creighton. While web really like this team and have made quality money on them this season, Old Dominion has major edges. The Monarchs take care of the ball much better, only losing the turnover battle once all season. Old Dominion also only lost the sack battle once, all the way back on September 17th against NC State. We prefer the favorite here in what should be a double digit straight up victory. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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12-21-16 | Kings v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 94-93 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
714 Sacramento at Utah Both teams are on the second of a back to back situation. Thus far this season with no rest Utah is 1-5 SU while Sacramento is 1-5. Its also an advantage for the host as Sacramento isn’t as used to playing in altitude. While the Kings outlasted the Blazers last night the Jazz were embarrassed in a 30 point loss at Oakland. We look for Utah to bounce back big time tonight. PLAY UTAH |
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12-19-16 | Belmont -8 v. Wisc-Milwaukee | Top | 62-56 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
743 Belmont at Wisconsin Milwaukee After the Bruins game Saturday was postponed against Green Bay, Belmont has extra rest coming off that 13 point loss to Middle Tennessee State. The Bruins are well tested on the road having already played Vanderbilt, Florida and Rhode Island away from home. Despite the tough schedule Belmont has impressed us with its overall defense, something you want out of a road favorite. Tough start to the year for the Panthers who only own four victories against the Milwaukee School of Engineering, UC Irvine, Jacksonville and Montana State. We have serious concerns about the Milwaukee defense which allows an opponent effective field goal percentage of 57.2. With no shot blocker down low Belmont should have its way in the paint. PLAY BELMONT |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
305 Tampa Bay at Dallas Can’t buck the red hot Bucs here catching a full touchdown. Five straight wins allowing a total of 64 total points., that includes likely playoff foes Kansas City and Seattle. Tampa Bay was won the turnover battle in 8 of 9 games and has held its own in the trenches. Dallas continues to play excellent defense but the offensive side of the ball has struggled as of late. Just 24 total points the last two weeks when facing improving defenses. In a low scoring contest the points are at a premium. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss v. UL-Lafayette +4.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
New Orleans Bowl 212 Southern Miss & UL Lafayette in New Orleans The Golden Eagles won 4 total games from 2012-2014, but bounced back with a solid 9-5 record last year. So the team entered the 2016 season with high hopes. After beating Kentucky on the road in the season opener things looked great for first year coach Jay Hopson. But the only FBS victories since then came against UTEP, Rice, Marshall and Louisiana Tech. Three very bad teams an a Bulldogs team that was looking past Southern Miss to the CUSA Championship the following week against Western Kentucky. QB Nick Mullens is reportedly healthy, which is a positive. But that’s the only thing going in the Golden Eagles favor here. The team has struggled along the lines the latter part of the year, and is a negative 15 turnovers on the season. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played in the New Orleans Bowl in 4 of the last 5 seasons. ULL is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in those games. While this isn’t a true home game for Lafayette it’s a game the team shoots for every season. One major reason we like the Ragin’ Cajuns chances here are how these two teams perform when losing the turnover battle. When you are able to cover a game despite losing the turnover battle it tells us the true heart of a team. ULL was a perfect 4-0 ATS in that department this season, the best in the FBS, just ahead of Alabama at 4-1. Southern Miss on the other hand was 0-7 ATS when losing the turnover battle. PLAY UL LAFAYETTE |
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12-17-16 | Houston v. San Diego State +4 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Las Vegas Bowl 204 Houston & San Diego State in Las Vegas Houston will be without coach Tom Herman as he has moved on to Texas. The offensive coordinator has been named new head coach, so the team does know who it will be playing for next season. While the move is a positive for the players, we can’t help but see this bowl as a disappointment for the team. This was a club expecting to play in a much more prestigious bowl, and we expect the players to treat this as more of a vacation spot than a proving ground. Houston has been very inconsistent all season in turnovers and along the lines. The +10 sack margin against Louisville was unbelievable, but other than that game the Cougars were -6 on the season in sacks. In 4 of the last 5 games of the season this team averaged less than 4.7 yards per play. San Diego State is very familiar with this location playing in Vegas every other year. The game will take precedence over the festivities for the Aztecs. San Diego State rarely turns the ball over and is formidable along the lines. Donnel Pumphrey is going for the all-time rushing record so the offensive line will be extra motivated. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -6.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 9 m | Show |
New Mexico Bowl 202 UTSA at New Mexico Tough draw in the first bowl game for the Roadrunners. Not only does UTSA have a first year coach in Frank Wilson, but the team is playing on the New Mexico home field. UTSA has had terrible line play all season posting a -21 net sack number in FBS games. In fact, it had just one positive sack game on the season. New Mexico is a team that will run the ball down your throat and gets stronger as the game progresses. On the season the Lobos have a +14 sack margin, which has been even better as of late. In the last seven games New Mexico has dominated in the trenches with a +14 sack margin. Twice this season the Lobos reached double digits in yards per play, 10.0 vs ULM and 13.5 against Wyoming. UTSA is in for a very physical contest. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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12-16-16 | Hawks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 125-121 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
506 Atlanta at Toronto Huge revenge game for the Hawks here who were slaughtered 128-84 the last time in this building. While the effort will be there for Atlanta, the talent is lacking. The Hawks have four new started this year and the chemistry just isn’t there yet. The bench is severely lacking and the guard play has been a problem. That means trouble when facing the Raptors who have one of the most talented backcourts in the league. Toronto is also one of the deepest teams in the NBA. So we have the haves and the have nots here with a line that’s cheap considering the matchups. PLAY TORONTO |
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12-12-16 | Bucks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
504 Milwaukee at Toronto Third game in four nights for the Bucks who faded late the last two games and lost to Washington and Atlanta. Milwaukee has an extreme disadvantage in the backcourt here as the Bucks guards are just too slow to guard Toronto. As much as we liked Matthew Dellavedova from his time in Cleveland he really struggled when playing Toronto. The Raptors have won 12 of 13 meetings with the Bucks and haven’t played since Friday. Milwaukee has struggled when playing teams of Toronto’s strength while the Raptors have made money against teams of Milwaukee’s ilk. PLAY TORONTO |
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12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
714 Indiana at Dallas Fifth straight road game for the Pacers who return home tomorrow to host the Blazers. These two went to overtime in the season opener with Indiana winning 130-121. Dallas is playing shorthanded right now with four key pieces remaining on the sideline. That said this team has been competitive all season and we expect the Mavs to battle tonight. Off an embarrassing 31 point loss here to Sacramento on Wednesday you know we will get the best out of the host. The only other blowout loss this season came by 38 at Cleveland and Dallas followed that up with an outright upset win, covering the spread by 15 1/2 points. PLAY DALLAS |
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12-04-16 | Panthers +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -101 | 46 h 44 m | Show |
375 Carolina at Seattle So much of what we have read and heard about this game is playoff revenge for Seattle. The Seahawks are getting healthier and now the players can’t wait to avenge the loss to the Panthers. But keep in mind Carolina was played Seattle better than anyone the past few seasons. Not only did Carolina win at home 31-24 in the playoffs, it won 27-23 in Seattle in the regular season. The teams played each of the three previous seasons with final margins of 4, 5 and 4 points. So just because Seattle has revenge does not mean this team can cover a spread in this range. On the season these two are equal in explosive plays breaking exactly even on the season. Over the last month Carolina has a +3 explosive play advantage. Since its bye week on October 9th Seattle has played seven games. In those games Seattle has scored 145 points and surrendered 133. The Seahawks were + 6 in turnovers in those games and favored in all but two. This team just isn’t as good as previous editions and Seattle continues to be an overrated squad. We went against Seattle last week vs the Bucs, we do the same here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-04-16 | Redskins +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 42 m | Show |
371 Washington at Arizona It’s not often that you get the clearly better team catching points. But that’s the case here as the betting public has been very slow to react to how poorly this Arizona team has played this year. On the season when looking at explosive plays Washington is +10 while Arizona is +2. Over the last month these teams are exactly equal. Washington is playing its second of three straight road games, and this is a divisional sandwich. The Redskins will also be without key receiver Reed on Sunday. Those are two big negatives, but not enough to keep us off the Skins here. In the last ten games Washington has lost just three games in regulation, twice to first place Dallas by margins of 4 and 5 points, and at first place Detroit by 3. This team is in every game it plays, and is a solid 2-2 ATS when losing the turnover battle. Simply put this team gives it all every week. The same cannot be said about the Cardinals who had much higher expectations coming into the season. Arizona is 0-5 ATS when losing the turnover battle. It’s also 0-4 on the year as an underdog or a favorite of -3 or less. Those stats are a clear indication of a lack of heart. In a game where the likely outcome is the team that wins gets the cover, who do you trust? PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-03-16 | Penn State +3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 35 m | Show |
333 Penn State & Wisconsin in Indianapolis Much prefer the red hot Nittany Lions here who have produced an outstanding 3.0 explosive plays per game average, as opposed to Wisconsin’s +1.2 per game advantage. Over the last month Penn State has outperformed the Badgers by 14 explosive plays. Penn State struggled in the trenches through the opening month of the season with a negative two sack margin. Since that time Penn State has a + 15 margin in sacks. Better line play is one of the reasons why this team has put up scoring numbers of 45, 39, 45, 41 and 62 points down the stretch. Wisconsin has relied on forcing turnovers the second half of the season, with a +11 margin the past four games. In those four games the yards per play numbers for the Badgers were not overly impressive. Despite playing the likes of Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern, the ypp numbers were 0.7, 0.3, 1.4 and minus 0.3. Penn State is a strong 2-2 ATS on the season when losing the turnover battle. Wisconsin better rely on more than turnovers to win this Big10 Championship. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-03-16 | Oklahoma State +11 v. Oklahoma | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -106 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
317 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma These two teams are much closer in talent than this current line is showing. On the season the Sooners have a +1.9 explosive play advantage, while the Cowboys sit at +1.5. Over the last four games Oklahoma State has a +6 margin over Oklahoma. Keep in mind that while the Cowboys have two official losses on the season, the defeat against Central Michigan was later ruled an officials mistake. The only other defeat was at Baylor in the first road game of the season . The road team has won outright the last three meetings in this series, and the past two meetings in Norman produced three point overtime finals. Oklahoma is up 7 net turnovers over the last five games which has helped the team go undefeated over that span. But even with that turnover advantage the Sooners are just 3-2 ATS. On the season the Sooners are 2-4 ATS when losing the turnover battle while the Cowboys sit at 2-1 on the year. As mentioned earlier this line is inflated and we will gladly take the visitor here with35 point home field revenge from a year ago. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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12-03-16 | Temple +3 v. Navy | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 33 m | Show |
325 Temple at Navy Tough to go against the red hot Owls here in an underdog role. On the season Temple is +2.5 explosive plays per game while Navy sits at 0.2. Over the last month Temple is +19 explosive plays compared the Navy. Temple has cashed 10 straight games heading into this contest, but the Midshipmen are off offensive performances of 75 and 66 points. Temple has its bye on November 12th, while Navy hasn’t had a break since September 24th. The last four Owl opponents produced 3.7, 3.1, 3.3 and 3.8 yards per play. Navy the past three weeks have 10.5, 8.1 and 7.0 yards per play from the offense. So it’s a red hot offense against a red hot defense, something has to give. While Navy has won 6 of 7 as of late, the yards per play stats show a different story. Since October 1st Navy has lost the ypp battle in 6 of 8 games with the only wins coming against SMU and Memphis. We would much rather trust this Temple team who has won the ypp battle 8 of its last 9 games. Defense wins over offense on Saturday. And the huge Army/Navy matchup is on deck for the Midshipmen. PLAY TEMPLE |
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12-02-16 | Ohio +19 v. Western Michigan | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 77 h 22 m | Show |
303 Ohio U & Western Michigan in Detroit The Bobcats biggest loss on the season was by a margin of 9 points at Tennessee. This is a team that has been competitive in every game played and we don’t expect anything to be different come Friday. In the last ten games against FBS opposition the Bobcats held every opponent to 28 points or less. Even in games in which Ohio U lost the turnover margin this defense has permitted 27, 10, 27 and 3 points. Ohio U has great line play with a + 21 sack margin on the season. Last weeks game against Toledo was considered the must have game for Western Michigan. While the Broncos won by 20 it lost the yards per play battle 8.4 to 6.1. It was a +3 turnover margin which led to the WM victory. Western has beaten Ohio by margins of 35 and 21 points the past two seasons, so we can see the Broncos having a bit of a letdown here. Between beating Toledo last week and a possible New Years Day bowl, this game against Ohio U is a flat spot for the Broncos. Keep in mind that ESPN came to Kalamazoo the week before against Buffalo and we can see how Western Michigan would overlook the opposition here. The advantages of turnover margin and sack advantage will not be extreme against this Ohio U squad. Look for a much closer game here than projected. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-27-16 | Seahawks v. Bucs +6 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
268 Seattle at Tampa Bay Really tough scheduling spot here for the Seahawks. Off Philadelphia, New England and Buffalo on Monday Night Football. With Carolina on Sunday Night Football, Green Bay, Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football and Arizona on Christmas Eve ahead. This is by far the least important game for Seattle until the final week of the season at San Francisco. The Seahawks are really beat up defensively this week and we can easily see the team using bench players on Sunday. Tampa Bay on the other hand are as healthy as the team has been all season. Tampa Bay is on a 4-2 straight up run with one of the losses coming in overtime to Oakland. Tampa struggled early but this is is underrated right now. Plenty of value on the home dog. PLAY TAMPA BAY |