Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-16 | Tennessee -7.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 34-45 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
11-26-16 | Michigan State v. Penn State -12 | Top | 12-45 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
160 Michigan State at Penn State Not buying into the Spartans improvement as this team has lost outright to Maryland and Illinois in the past five games. Michigan State is -11 in sacks on the season while Penn State is up 12 sacks in just the past seven games. We expect the Nittany Lions to dominate the line play on both sides of the ball. And Penn State has extra motivation off losses by margins of 39 and 27 points the last two years. PLAY PENN STATE |
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11-26-16 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -8 | Top | 55-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
214 Mississippi State at Mississippi This line has really surprised us. We have a bigger disparity between our line and the current line on this game than any other this weekend. On the season Ole Miss has a 1.9 explosive play advantage between these two, and over the last month its a +23 advantage for the Rebels. Ole Miss has won 3 of the last 4 with the lone loss coming in overtime in 2013. The Bulldogs over the past seven games have given up an average of 39.7 points per game. Mississippi has played the toughest schedule in the country this year. Games against Florida State, Alabama, Georgia, Memphis, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. You can understand how this team has underperformed on the scoreboard. But after an embarrassing loss last week at Vanderbilt you can be sure Hugh Freeze will have his team fired up for this one. Now 13-8 ATS here off a straight up loss in his tenure at Ole Miss, Freeze and company win this by double digits. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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11-25-16 | Texas Tech +5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 54-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
139 Texas Tech at Baylor The Red Raiders enter this game of an absolutely embarrassing loss at Iowa State. That broke a four game winning streak in the series, and marked the lowest offensive output in any game since 2011. All the quotes out of Lubbock suggest the team is excited to put that game behind them, and beat the hell out of the downtrodden Bears who crushed them last year 63-35. Baylor is simply put a dumpster fire right now with all the off-field issues taking over this program. Baylor has dropped four straight games and the offense is nowhere near as potent as in prior seasons. Over the last month Texas Tech has a +4 explode play advantage over the Bears and we actually have Texas Tech rated as the favorite here. Can’t understand the line move for a team that has not won the penalty advantage in any game, and is -6 in sacks the last month. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-25-16 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -7 | Top | 35-55 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
118 Toledo at Western Michigan Now that we’ve had some line movement towards the dog we will step in and lay the points with the Broncos. Toledo has been impressive on the road this year but other than the trip to BYU the opponents have been less than stellar. The coaching edge also favors the host here as Jason Candle is in his first year while PJ Fleck will be highly sought after following this season. This is also the ninth straight game for the visitor while Western had a bye just two weeks ago. In looking at explosive plays Western Michigan has been dominant. Up 2.7 per game as opposed to Toledo’s 0.4. Over the last month the Broncos have a +12 advantage over the Rockets. Western Michigan hasn’t lost the turnover battle in any game this year and have won the yards per play battle in 10 straight games. The Broncos are the clear class of this league and it will show on the field on Friday. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-25-16 | TCU v. Texas -3 | Top | 31-9 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 29 m | Show |
128 TCU at Texas The Horned Frogs were highly thought of in the betting marketplace before the season. But I, along with many others were simply wrong about TCU. The defense has been pretty good but this offense has only surpassed last years average points of 42.1 just twice all season. While Gary Patterson has been magical off a bye posting a 24-12-1 ATS mark in his career. In two games after byes this season TCU lost by margins of 24 and 25 points. Losing ATS by a combined 49 1/2 points. This will be an extremely emotional game for the host. Charlie Strong is coaching his last game in Austin after losing outright at Kansas last week. While his won/loss record here has been a disappointment, he is beloved by his players. There is no doubt in my mind that the Longhorn players will leave everything on the field in this game. These type of contests don’t come up very often. But in retrospect the club with the added emotion has great success. PLAY TEXAS |
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11-22-16 | Ball State v. Miami (OH) -7 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
104 Ball State at Miami Ohio Last game of the season for the Cardinals who are not eligible to go bowling. The team is -1.8 explosive plays a game as the offense has struggled to throw the ball downfield. Defensively Ball State has allowed every FBS opponent 21 points or more this season. Turnovers have been a problem with a -10 margin on the season. Nothing that we have read points to any special meaning for the Cardinals here. Miami Ohio lost the first six games of the season but are now undefeated with Gus Ragland behind center. Last year and this year combined Ragland has a 15 to 0 touchdown to interception ratio. The defense has been solid all year but now the offense is playing with confidence. The last four games the Redhawks have produced 35, 37, 28 and 40 points. Miami can win the MAC East with a victory here and a loss by Ohio U tonight against a banged up Akron team. Regardless of what happens in Athens, this Miami team is on the rise. Lay the cheap number with the Redhawks. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-20-16 | Titans +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -104 | 46 h 58 m | Show |
451 Tennessee at Indianapolis The Colts have beaten the Titans ten straight times heading into this contest including a 34-26 win in Tennessee back in October. But we expect that dominance to come to an end on Sunday. Indy should come out of the bye fat and happy after pounding the Packers on the road. But this team has only won twice all season in yards per play as the 4-5 record is a bit misleading. The major problem for the Colts is poor line play. When looking at team sacks Indy is -16 on the season, including -11 the past six games. If you can’t control the lines you better have the ability to create explosive plays. But that’s another sore spot for the Colts as Indy is -16 in explosive plays on the season. Tennessee on the other hand is +15 on the year, a whopping 31 explosive play advantage over Indy. While Tennessee is 5-5 on the year, it is 6-3-1 in yards per play. So while the Colts are not as good as its record the Titans are actually better. Getting the points with the better team here is just too good to pass up as we expect Tennessee to win going away. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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11-20-16 | Bears +7.5 v. Giants | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 46 h 51 m | Show |
457 Chicago at New York Giants In a battle of two mistake prone quarterbacks we will gladly take the inflated number with the Bears. Chicago has a -5 deficit in turnovers on the season but the Giants at -8 are even worse. The Bears are 4-4-1 in yards per play, it’s been the turnovers which have killed this team all year. Now facing another turnover machine in Eli Manning the Bears have a real shot at the outright win here. New York is 5-3-1 in yards per play but are at a -10 disadvantage in explosive plays vs Chicago. Playing on a short week after a 21-20 victory over Cincinnati, we can see the Giants coming into this contest overconfident. After facing Los Angeles in London and beating divisional rival Philadelphia, followed by the MNF contest, it’s easy to see NY struggling for motivation here. PLAY CHICAGO |
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11-19-16 | Air Force v. San Jose State +10.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show |
414 Air Force at San Jose State Very tough scheduling situation for the Falcons here who are playing its third road game in the last four weeks. With a Friday showdown with Boise State on deck. Air Force has underperformed the last couple months having lost ATS in 5 of 6 contests. The lone spread victory was against Army in winning the Commander in Chief Trophy. Air Force beat San Jose State by 21 last year so there is little motivation here. San Jose State has performed better over the last month in explosive plays, despite facing the tougher of the two schedules. Over the last three games the Spartans played Boise State and San Diego State, the two top teams in the Mountain West Conference. San Jose also is coming off a needed bye after falling to the Boise State team 45-31 in a game it won the yards per play stat. San Jose State really struggled out of the gate but this team is starting to find itself, and best of all its doing so under the publics eye. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia +2.5 | Top | 56-28 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 55 m | Show |
342 Oklahoma at West Virginia As well as the Sooners are playing winning seven straight games heading into this week, the list of teams it has beaten all have major flaws. The best two teams on the conference schedule are West Virginia and Oklahoma State, which is the same two teams it ends the season against. A telling sign when handicapping football is how teams do when losing the turnover battle. Oklahoma is 2-4 when that happens, which is about what you would expect. West Virginia on the other hand is 3-1 when losing the turnover battle. The only team better is the consensus best team in the nation, Alabama who is a perfect 4-0. Backing these type of teams gives you a full game of intensity, something the Sooners have lacked all season. The Mountaineers are on an 11-1 straight up run at home, yet have been installed as the underdog here. While Oklahoma is up 2.4 explosive plays per game to West Virginia and its 2.0, the Mountaineers have been better over the last month. We think the wrong team is favored here. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-16-16 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
307 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan With news of the quarterback change a Northern Illinois the line has dropped three points during the week. That’s way too much of an adjustment in our eyes as the change is at most a single point. Keep in mind that the Huskies lost its true starter early in the season and these two signal callers were rated equal at that point. Another reason for the Eastern Michigan love is that the Eagles are now bowl eligible while the Huskies won’t be bowling for the first time in nine years. We actually find that to be a detriment to Eastern Michigan who have had extra time to celebrate. With all the boosters and fans giving them praise all week we can see a team that’s not used to success coming out flat tonight. Northern on the other hand have beaten the Eagles 14 of 15 games, including the last four by a combined margin of 120 points, 30 points per contest. Despite the late loss last week to Toledo this team has outscored the opposition 113-58 the past three games. Rod Carey will not let this team get down on itself and the talent level isn’t a huge drop-off from last year. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys +3 v. Steelers | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
271 Dallas at Pittsburgh This is a classic case of perception winning out over reality. Just lay out the season long statistics of these two teams and take away the team names, then tell me who should be favored here. One team has won 7 straight games, winning 6 of those in yards per play. That club has only lost the turnover battle once all year and is +6 in sacks on the season. That team has produced a league high +21 explosive play margin. Team two sits at 4-4 on the year and enters on a three game losing streak. That team is 2-4-1 in yards per play this season and is -2 in turnover margin. The team is also a balanced 0 in explosive plays, allowing the same amount as it obtained itself. By now you recognize that the team with the far better production is the road underdog Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers simply are not playing well enough to trust here against what could be the NFC Super Bowl representative. Losses to Miami and Baltimore as of late cannot be excused. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-13-16 | Vikings v. Redskins -1 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
262 Minnesota at Washington The Vikings are not a team that is built to come back from deficits. The last three weeks Minnesota has scored 3 points by the half in each game. That was against Philadelphia, Chicago and Detroit. The offense produced a season high of 5.3 yards per play earlier this year against the Giants, which tells you how much this team struggles. If it wasn’t for a +12 turnover margin we would be talking about this team as one of the dregs of the league. In explosive plays Washington owns a +15 advantage over these Vikings. The offense has produced 16 points or more in every game, along with a season low of 5.0 yards per play. That would tie the second best game the Vikings have had offensively. Washington is the better all-around team and the line play for the Redskins is far superior overall to Minnesota, who are -11 sacks the past three games. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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11-12-16 | Appalachian State +1 v. Troy | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 22 m | Show |
159 Appalachian State at Troy The Mountaineers have won both meetings with the Trojans by margins of 3 and 39 points the last two years. The 44-41 triple overtime game from a year ago was with the Mountaineers as a 24 point favorite. That game was sandwiched between two Thursday games with contenders Georgia Southern and Arkansas State. You can bet coach Satterfield will remind his team of that situation from a year ago. With only ULM and New Mexico State remaining on the schedule Appalachian State can focus fully on Troy here. Troy has put together a really good season, but this team hasn’t played a good team since the September 10th meeting at Clemson. The Trojans have been a 9 point or larger favorite in each of the last five games. App State has the much more explosive team despite playing a slightly tougher schedule. This team knows how to win on the road and we expect a solid victory over the Trojans. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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11-12-16 | Kentucky +14 v. Tennessee | Top | 36-49 | Win | 100 | 41 h 42 m | Show |
165 Kentucky at Tennessee Not buying into the line movement here as Kentucky has been every bit as good as Tennessee the last month. The Wildcats have a sizable explosive play advantage on the season of 1.4 per game over the Volunteers. In matching up similar opponents and using 3.5 as home field advantage we see Kentucky fares very closely to Tennessee. The Wildcats were -34.5 against Florida while Tennessee was +6.5. That was the clear outlier when looking at these games. Against South Carolina it was +3.5 for the Wildcats and +0.5 for Tennessee. Against Alabama it was -24.5 for KY and -42.5 for TN. Versus Georgia it was -6.5 for the Wildcats and +6.5 for the Volunteers. With Tennessee expected to be the SEC East Champions coming into the season, we can fade this team down the stretch. Off three straight losses there is no way Tennessee deserves this much credit in the betting marketplace. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-08-16 | Eastern Michigan +1 v. Ball State | Top | 48-41 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
101 Eastern Michigan at Ball State The Eagles have dropped five straight in this series, but keep in mind this team posted a 13-47 overall record during that time. This Chris Creighton squad is far superior to any of those teams. In fact, a win here and the Eagles will become bowl eligible. After back to back losses to Western Michigan and an improving Miami Ohio, a victory here is paramount before heading into the bye week. Ball State has dropped 4 of 5 overall with the lone victory coming at Buffalo in a non-covering affair. The running game for the Cardinals is quality but this Eastern Michigan run defense is much tougher than in past years. We can see the Eagles putting a lot of pressure on the Ball State signal caller, making the offense one dimensional. Eastern has the much more explosive team averaging +1.1 explosive plays per game while Ball State sits at a -1.6. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-05-16 | Nebraska +17 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-62 | Loss | -104 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
415 Nebraska at Ohio State Only one team all season has scored more than 22 points in regulation against the Huskers. That was Oregon way back in week three who tallied 32. The last five games Nebraska has permitted 17, 14, 22, 16 and 13 points in regulation. Tough not to like a sizable underdog with a defense like that. Ohio State is really struggling offensively. Without JT Barrett being 100% it takes away the ability for the QB to run from the pocket. The last four games Ohio State has produced 5.9, 5.0, 5.6 and 5.4 yards per play. These two clubs faced two good conference opponents this year, Northwestern and Wisconsin. In regulation Ohio State outscored those two by 4 total points, Nebraska outscored the same two teams in regulation by 11 points. So why are the Buckeyes such a prohibitive favorite? Public perception. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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11-05-16 | Charlotte +20 v. Southern Miss | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 38 m | Show |
357 Charlotte at Southern Miss Charlotte was a team getting a lot of press in the offseason with 16 returning starters. After facing Louisville, Eastern Michigan and Temple that hype dissipated. But looking back we see that all three of those teams are much improved, which gives us value on the 49ers now. The last three games Charlotte has outscored the opposition 81 to 74 despite playing two of those games on the road. The 49ers also have a slightly better explosive plays per game average than does the Golden Eagles, despite playing a little tougher schedule. Charlotte is off a bye after winning at Marshall by 3, while Southern Miss just beat the Thundering Herd at home by 10. There is no way the Golden Eagles deserve to be favorites of this magnitude. The Golden Eagles own just one FBS victory by more than this spread, and that was over UTEP, in a game it only had a 0.9 yards per play advantage. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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11-05-16 | Fresno State +15.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 0-37 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
371 Fresno State at Colorado State Don’t look now but the Bulldogs have become major money makers after the firing of head coach Tim DeRuyter. Four straight covers by a combined total of 16 1/2 points. After blowing a huge lead and losing in overtime to Tulsa, followed by a 25 point loss at UNLV, this team was left for dead. Not anymore as this club is playing with new enthusiasm. Colorado State has three FBS wins on the season, against UTSA, Utah State and UNLV. In two of those three games the Rams lost the yards per play category. In all three of those games Colorado State won the turnover battle. This is the first time all season this club has been a double digit favorite. The last time in that role was against these very same Bulldogs last year, and the Rams only won that game 34-31. We look for more of the same here. PLAY FRESNO STATE |
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11-03-16 | UCLA +12 v. Colorado | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
315 UCLA at Colorado The Bruins have beaten the Buffaloes all five times since Colorado joined the PAC12. In every meeting UCLS has been a double digit favorite. Just last year Colorado was getting 23 points in Los Angeles. Now the Buffalos have been installed as a double digit favorite Thursday at home. While there is a drop-off at quarterback without Rosen, this line is saying its an eight point line adjustment. With last week off for the Bruins, the team can make the needed adjustments at quarterback. Just three weeks ago the Buffaloes gave Arizona State 11 1/2 points here. We have UCLA a full 10 points better with a healthy Rosen. Once again the line here has been overblown. Too many points to not back the Bruins here off its worst defensive effort of the year. PLAY UCLA |
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11-01-16 | Warriors v. Blazers +5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
718 Golden State at Portland Playoff revenge for the Blazers here after the Warriors knocked them out of contention last season. The Blazers are a team we are looking to back early on as just about all the key pieces return from last years club. Teams with cohesiveness have a big edge early in the season. Golden State on the other hand made some major changes to its personnel this season, which is why the club has been an early money burner. We back the home dog here in what amounts to a statement game. PLAY PORTLAND |
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11-01-16 | Bowling Green +17 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
301 Bowling Green at Northern Illinois What a difference a year makes with these two schools. The last three seasons these programs played for the MAC Championship. Now neither will be making the big game. Mike Jinks took over for Dino Babers this season and the club was overwhelmed from the start, much like what happened to Northern Illinois this season. But both clubs have settled down now that conference action is underway. Just three weeks ago Bowling Green traveled to Ohio U and were installed as a 12 point underdog, in a 30-24 Bobcats win. Now the line is 5 points higher against a Huskies team that we have power rated as equal to Ohio U. That gives us plenty of value with the Falcons on Tuesday. Bowling Green still turns the ball over way too often, but the offense is starting to click. Bowling Green has produced 24 points or more in its last four games, against some of the better defenses in the MAC no less. Last time out Northern Illinois crushed Buffalo 44-7. But the offensively challenged Bulls lost the turnover battle by 4 in the first half in that game. The Bulls never had a chance to compete. Northern is the better team but this line is outrageous. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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10-29-16 | Tulsa v. Memphis -6.5 | Top | 59-30 | Loss | -106 | 56 h 32 m | Show |
162 Tulsa at Memphis The Golden Hurricane has lost to Memphis by 24 and 20 points the past two seasons. The only FBS victories this season for Tulsa have come against San Jose State, Fresno State, SMU and Tulane. The middle two games coming in overtime. Memphis has suffered just two losses on the year, at Mississippi and at Navy. Two teams much better than Tulsa. The Tigers have a +1.5 explosive plays per game more than the Golden Hurricane while playing almost identical strength of schedules. Look for another double digit victory for Memphis. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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10-29-16 | Arizona State v. Oregon -8 | Top | 35-54 | Win | 100 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
202 Arizona State at Oregon The Sun Devils have dropped 3 of 4 as of late with the offense averaging just 22.8 points per game. The quarterback position has been hampered with injuries and the starting center is out for this game. In three road games this season Arizona State is 0-3 ATS with spread losses of 12 1/2, 12 and 17 1/2 points. Oregon looked good coming out of the bye giving California all it could handle in a double overtime loss. On the season the Ducks have played a 5 point tougher schedule and still owns a 2.4 explosive play per game average over the Sun Devils. With the Ducks being winless on the season ATS there is tons of value on this Oregon squad. PLAY OREGON |
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10-29-16 | Army v. Wake Forest -5.5 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
132 Army at Wake Forest The Black Knights gained a lot of attention in knocking off Temple 28-13 as a 13 1/2 point underdog to start the season. But since then Army is 2-3 vs FBS competition with the only wins coming against Rice & UTEP. In fact, This team has played one of the weakest schedules in the entire FBS. How about facing North Texas, Duke, Buffalo, UTEP and Rice the past five FBS games. This team has dropped three straight ATS by a combined margin of 53 points. Army is an overrated squad right now in the betting markets. Wake Forest has beaten Army each of the last four seasons and has already faced an option team in Tulane in the season opener. The Demon Deacons are off a bye and have cashed 4 of 5 games heading into this clash. The last two games Wake held Florida State and Syracuse to a combined 26 points. This line is cheap based on the perceived improvement from Army. Keep in mind there is a huge strength of schedule edge here for the host as Wake Forest has played a 14 point tougher schedule than the Black Knights. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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10-28-16 | Indians +185 v. Cubs | Top | 1-0 | Win | 185 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
901 Cleveland at Chicago While we love Kyle Hendricks and the job he has done all season, the betting value is all on the Indians. Josh Tomlin is unflappable and pitching in this environment will not affect him. He’s very similar to Corey Kluber in that he has excellent control and rarely walks a batter. With the Cubs being a very patient team they will have their hands full with Tomlin and the rested Cleveland bullpen. Too much value not to take the Tribe. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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10-23-16 | Raiders v. Jaguars -115 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
464 Oakland at Jacksonville Raiders enter this game at 4-2 on the season but have lost the cards per play battle in every single contest. The reason for the Oakland success has been a plus 5 turnover margin. While this team is a perfect 3-0 on the road, all victories came by a single point. This has been a very fortunate team in which we can take advantage. The Jags are 2-3 on the season but have won the yards per play battle in four of those five games. While the Raiders are +5 in TO’s the Jaguars are -5. That pretty much is the differential in records between these two. Jacksonville was right in there against Green Bay and Baltimore, with a very little amount of luck this team could be 4-1. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-22-16 | Georgia Southern v. New Mexico State +14 | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 77 h 21 m | Show |
396 Georgia Southern at New Mexico State The Eagles are 2-3 SU vs FBS competition on the season and 1-4 ATS. It has been out gained in yards per play in 4 of 5 games. Yet for some reason Georgia Southern has been installed as a double digit road favorite. It’s also the fourth straight road game for the Eagles and third straight since its bye week. The Eagles also have to play on Thursday hosting Appalachian State in a revenge matchup. Needless to say this is a terrible spot for the visitor. New Mexico State is just 2-4 SU vs FBS competition but did beat another ground oriented attack in in-state rival New Mexico. Coming off an embarrassing 55-23 loss at Idaho after a bye, you can be assured Doug Martin and his crew will be fired up for this home battle. The Aggies are undefeated in Aggie Memorial Stadium this year and have double revenge against this opponent. When looking at explosive plays the Aggies are +0.5 per game while the Eagles are -2.0 on the season. Georgia Southern just doesn’t have the breakout backs it has had in prior seasons. PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE |
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10-22-16 | Old Dominion +13.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 24-59 | Loss | -106 | 69 h 23 m | Show |
385 Old Dominion at Western Kentucky We’ve been very impressed by the job Bobby Wilder has done with the Monarchs. Three straight victories with the only FBS losses coming at Appalachian State at North Carolina State. With an extra week to prepare we look for Old Dominion to avenge two straight losses to the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has failed to cover the number in five straight games but it’s gone unnoticed because of a 3-3 straight up record. But this team could come in here a bit suggest after going to the wire against Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Vanderbilt and Miami Ohio. All games decided by seven points or less including two contests involving a total of three overtimes. Now it’s homecoming week with the team knowing it has dispatched the Monarchs by 17 and 15 points the previous two years. When looking at explosive plays the visitor has the edge at +1.2 per game as opposed to a -0.5 for the host. This one is decided very late. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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10-22-16 | Ohio v. Kent State +3.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 43 m | Show |
362 Ohio at Kent State The Bobcats are 3-3 SU on the season against FBS competition with a turnover margin advantage of plus 9. As we know turnovers for the most part are random and therefore the Bobcats have been very fortunate. In fact, last week was the first time Ohio U lost the turnover battle and in turn lost the game outright to Eastern Michigan. This team is rated higher by the gambling community than anyone who has watched this team play. Kent State is 1-4 SU on the season but has covered 3 of 5 games against the FBS. The offense obviously struggled against Penn State and Alabama but has averaged over 28 ppg against league opponents. That’s far better than the 9.1 ppg the Golden Flashes averaged a year ago. Speaking of a year ago, Kent State is looking to avenge a 27-0 shutout at the hands of this Bobcat team in Athens. With this being just the second home game against FBS opposition we can see the team fired up to exact some revenge. PLAY KENT STATE |
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10-16-16 | Rams v. Lions -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 51 h 35 m | Show |
264 Los Angeles at Detroit The Rams and Giants travel to London next week. Teams that have that trip on deck have been a terrible pointspread proposition. In fact, Los Angeles in taking off from Detroit instead of returning back home. Football teams are a regimented group. Doing things exactly the same every day of the week during the season. A travel situation like this is sure to mess up your weekly flow of energy. The Rams haven’t spent two weeks at home the entire season up to this point and won’t until back to back home games hosting San Francisco and Arizona to end the regular season. The Rams have lost the yards per play stat in every game played this season. Unlike the visitor the Lions are home for the second of three straight weeks. Detroit is 8–3-2 ATS under Jim Caldwell as a home favorite. The Rams will get the full attention on the Lions here in a great scheduling spot for the host. PLAY DETROIT |
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10-15-16 | Temple +4 v. Central Florida | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 52 h 58 m | Show |
123 Connecticut at South Florida The last nine games in this series have been decided by 8, 3 , 3, 7, 6, 3, 2, 4 and 7 points. So why is this line so much higher? Connecticut won outright in four of those nine games. This is a very tight series and this line is highly unusual. UConn isn’t going to dazzle you with a potent offense but this team knows how to play against superior competition. Just last year this club beat Houston outright as a double digit underdog and only lost 9-6 at Missouri catching 21 1/2 points. USF has a short week ahead as it takes on Temple on Friday. The Bulls only loss this season came against Florida State, as this is a very good football team. But we haven’t seen enough out of this squad to lay this type of number. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-15-16 | Connecticut +20 v. South Florida | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
123 Connecticut at South Florida The last nine games in this series have been decided by 8, 3 , 3, 7, 6, 3, 2, 4 and 7 points. So why is this line so much higher? Connecticut won outright in four of those nine games. This is a very tight series and this line is highly unusual. UConn isn’t going to dazzle you with a potent offense but this team knows how to play against superior competition. Just last year this club beat Houston outright as a double digit underdog and only lost 9-6 at Missouri catching 21 1/2 points. USF has a short week ahead as it takes on Temple on Friday. The Bulls only loss this season came against Florida State, as this is a very good football team. But we haven’t seen enough out of this squad to lay this type of number. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-15-16 | Ball State v. Buffalo +10.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 6 m | Show |
122 Ball State at Buffalo The Cardinals are 2-3 straight up against FBS competition and haven’t been favored by double digits in ten games. The last time the Cardinals were such a big favorite it lost outright to Georgia State, failing to cover the spread by 25 points. When we break down explosive plays we find the host having the better numbers than this high priced road favorite. Buffalo is 1-3 vs FBS competition and are off back to back blowouts to Kent State and Boston College. But this line movement is too extreme as Kent State was favored by just 3 points last week. We only rate Ball State three points better than the Golden Flashes. So we are getting an additional four points here with a fired up home dog looking to make amends. An outright upset wouldn’t surprise. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-15-16 | Eastern Michigan +7 v. Ohio | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 45 m | Show |
117 Eastern Michigan at Ohio U Been very impressed with the job Craig Creighton has done at Eastern Michigan this season. Since 2009 this team had been 15-69 and the laughingstock of the MAC. But this year his Eagles have been very competitive with a 3-2 SU record against FBS competition. What’s been especially good is that transpired despite a -4 turnover disadvantage. The last four games when looking at yards per play the Eagles have held their own. +1.9 ypp against Charlotte, +1.5 vs Wyoming, +1.2 against Bowling Green and were only outgunned by 20 point favorite Toledo by 0.2 yards per play. Ohio U is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS vs FBS opposition. But keep in mind that this team has a turnover advantage of +10 and a sack advantage of +17 on the year. Teams that dominate those two stats should be much more successful. Coming off unimpressive victories over Miami Ohio and Bowling Green, we can clearly see the sell sign on the Bobcats. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-15-16 | Vanderbilt +14 v. Georgia | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 48 m | Show |
179 Vanderbilt at Georgia Second straight road game for the Commodores who are off a 20-13 loss at Kentucky. But teams who fail to cover in the first game of a back to back are an excellent play the following week. We saw this earlier in the season as the Commodores won outright at Western Kentucky after failing at Georgia Tech. That makes Vandy 5-0 ATS in that situation the last five years. Despite dropping game at Kentucky and Florida the past two weeks the Commodores beat both teams in yards per play. Georgia enters this game 3-2 SU against FBS members. Beating North Carolina by 9, Missouri by a single point and South Carolina by 14 when running back the onside kick at games end last week. We just haven’t seen enough out of this Georgia team to lay this type of number. Our explosive play chart rates Vandy much higher than the Bulldogs. Tough to lay this big of number without long touchdowns. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
462 Philadelphia at Detroit The Eagles had the legitimizer game right before the week off as they crushed the Steelers 34-3. You know this team is living high on the hog the past two weeks savoring its success. But turnovers have been a big part of that 3-0 record with a +6 turnover margin. Now the team takes to the road to play a Detroit team coming off three straight losses. The Lions are 11-6 straight up at home as of late with just three of those losses coming by more than a field goal. While Philly is fat and happy this is a must win situation for the host. We expect the Lions to get it done as the Eagles come in overrated. PLAY DETROIT |
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10-08-16 | Washington v. Oregon +9 | Top | 70-21 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 33 m | Show |
386 Washington at Oregon Coming into this season we were already aware of how good this Washington team would be, along with the expected drop-off of the Ducks. Yet all three of our power ratings made Oregon a 1 1/2 point favorite in this game. So what has happened this season to make this game 11 points higher? Virtually nothing other than a nationally televised blowout win over Stanford. A Cardinal team that had just beaten USC and UCLA the previous two weeks before taking on the Huskies on a short week. We take nothing away from this Washington team but keep in mind it had to go to overtime to beat Arizona the prior week. Oregon enters this game on a three game losing streak, dropping contests to Nebraska, Colorado and Washington State, three bowl worthy opponents. Over the last 10+ years the Ducks are 61-10 straight up in Autzen Stadium. Oregon enters this contest knowing it has beaten the Huskies 12 straight games, yet is installed as a sizable home underdog. This team has been a home dog just twice in this last decade plus. Winning both games outright and covering the spread by a whopping combined margin of 74 1/2 points! PLAY OREGON |
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10-08-16 | Northern Illinois +19.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
321 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan It’s a huge matchup of series history against current form. Northern Illinois has beaten Western Michigan seven straight times with the closest outcome being by 7 points. Western Michigan on the other hand have beaten the likes of Northwestern, Illinois and Central Michigan. PJ Fleck is a highly sought after coach who will likely be offered the Purdue job at years end. But this is not a very good spot for the Broncos. Last weeks blowout of Central Michigan was the legitimizer win for this program. After winning eight games each of the last two years the Broncos are now on the edge of the Top 25, and are talked about being a possible undefeated squad. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves Western Michigan fans, keep in mind you are +9 in turnover margin against FBS competition. In fact, the Broncos haven’t turned the ball over all season. That type of luck isn’t likely to continue as this team, coming into this season, were -4 in turnovers in the first three years of the PJ Fleck era. Northern Illinois is 1-4 on the season but a perfect 1-0 in MAC action. Losses at Wyoming in altitude, along with defeats at South Florida and San Diego State are excusable. Both those teams are Top 30 worthy. This is a veteran team with 58 lettermen returning along with a starting quarterback who transferred in from Western Michigan. That knowledge of the system can only help the Huskies. While Western is the clearly better team in the public eye, Northern Illinois knows how to beat this team. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-07-16 | Boise State v. New Mexico +17 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -104 | 57 h 32 m | Show |
316 Boise State at New Mexico Many will look towards the revenge angle in this one as Boise State was shocked 31-24 last year, losing as a 31 point favorite. But a quick look at history shows that the Broncos have a terrible time against the option. When going against Air Force and New Mexico the past five years Boise State is 6-3 straight up but 0-9 ATS. In fact those spread losses have been by margins of 18, 38, 8, 27, 9, 1.5, 22.5, 3.5 and 18. That’s over 16 points per game against the spread. The Broncos played Utah State last week so it has no extra time to practice for the option. Bob Davie has done a tremendous job here in Albuquerque since taking over the program in 2012. After consecutive single win seasons from 2009 thru 2011 this club has posted win totals of 4, 3, 4 and 7 the past four seasons. That may not sound overly impressive to most, but people in the know are well aware of his coaching ability. An outright upset here would really not be out of the realm of possibility. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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10-02-16 | Titans v. Texans -4 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
264 Tennessee at Houston We’ve waited all week as the public has gotten involved in this one pushing the line way below where it should have been. This game should have been lined around a touchdown but with the news of JJ Watt possibly being lost for the season the line has dropped roughly 3 points. In his prime Watt was worth about 1 1/2 points to the spread. He has been injured all year with a back problem and the analytics show he has been a below average NFL player this season. So we get a 3 point line movement on a team that should be even better just by not having the injured player on the field. Houston is off an embarrassing 27-0 shutout loss on national television last Thursday. The Texans have two full days to prepare and it has owned the Titans as of late. Winning by margins of 28, 14, 24 and 14 points the last two seasons. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS as a divisional road dog under Mike Mularkey. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-01-16 | Oregon v. Washington State +2.5 | Top | 33-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
216 Oregon at Washington State This Oregon program is on the decline under Mark Helfrich. His teams performed well in 2013 and 2014 with the Chip Kelly recruits. But last year the Ducks broke a streak of 7 straight seasons of double digit victories with a 9-4 record including losing its bowl game. The last two weeks the Ducks lost to both Nebraska and Colorado despite winning the turnover battle in each game, which is hard to do. Washington State and Mike Leach has played Oregon tough over the years. The last five games the Cougars have covered by margins of 23 1/2, 16, 15 1/2, 5 1/2 and 20 points. Last year Washington State won in straight up fashion in Eugene. The wrong team is favored here. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE |
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10-01-16 | Memphis v. Ole Miss -14.5 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 103 h 50 m | Show |
116 Memphis at Mississippi The Tigers have been impressive thus far with dominate wins over SE M and Bowling Green. But the first win came against an FCS team and the Jayhawks and Falcons are two of the weaker teams in the FBS this season. That said, Mike Norvell has inherited a team that won 9 and 10 games the previous two years with Justin Fuente at the helm and Paxton Lynch behind center. Mississippi has had this game circled after losing at Memphis last year 37-24 as a 10 1/2 point road favorite. While Memphis has played a very weak schedule Ole Miss has taken on the likes of Alabama, Georgia and Florida State. Under Hugh Freeze the Rebels are 14-7-1 when installed as home favorites and the team has a bye week on deck. We look for an inspired effort from the host as the step up in defenses faced for Memphis will be too much to overcome. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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10-01-16 | Akron v. Kent State +7 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
154 Akron at Kent State Tough to lay points on the road in a rivalry game when your defense is allowing 577.7 yards per game the last three contests. Akron hasn’t beaten the Golden Flashes in regulation the past five times here. The only victory was a double overtime 30-27 win here in 2008. In three games against FBS competition the Zips have permitted 45, 38 and 54 points. No way this team should be a touchdown favorite. Due to injuries the Golden Flashes are down to its third string quarterback, but like the Cleveland Browns last week the drop-off is virtually nonexistent. Kent is coming off a physical Alabama game last week but the two previous contests were vs FCS squads. Kent is also playing with shutout revenge for a 20-0 defeat last year at Akron. In two FBS games Kent has played at Penn State and Alabama, the drop-off in defensive faced is huge. PLAY KENT STATE |
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09-28-16 | Mets -114 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
907 New York at Miami Surprised by the low line in this one as Lugo has been excellent for the Mets since his promotion. With New York holding on to a wild card spot and Miami playing out the string we see value in the visitor. Especially when you consider the emotional state of the Marlins. After the terrible tragedy of Jose Fernandez the team rallied around his memory in the first game back to action. Now after its all settled in the team played lackluster yesterday. We expect more of the same on Wednesday. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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09-25-16 | Bears +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
487 Chicago at Dallas The injury to Jay Cutler is a positive as Brian Hoyer is equal or better than the troubled Bears starter. In fact, his teammates have never been a fan of Cutler so we should see an added focus for Hoyer. Dallas has been a very poor team at home posting a 1-8 straight up mark at the Jerry Dome. Underdogs in Cowboys games have been golden the past few seasons as points seem to be at a premium. Dallas is a public team, and after the terrible Monday Night Football performances from the Bears, value is on Chicago. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-24-16 | Miami (OH) +17 v. Cincinnati | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 19 m | Show |
375 Miami Ohio at Cincinnati Terrible scheduling situation for the host who played Houston on National Television last week and have major revenge against South Florida on deck. USF led Cincy 51-3 at halftime in what would become an embarrassing 65-27 loss. The Bearcats have dominated this one way rivalry series winning ten straight. We can’t see them getting up to play this lesser MAC team. Miami on the other hand is much improved this year and has already faced the likes of Iowa and Western Kentucky, two spread covering contests. While conference action starts next week as the Redhawks host Ohio, this game has more meaning to the players. A win over their close rival would build major confidence heading into MAC action. Under Chuck Martin Miami is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog and they have enough talent to take this one to the wire. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -120 | 81 h 4 m | Show |
290 Philadelphia at ChicagoFirst road start for rookie Carson Wentz who was fortunate to play the weak Cleveland defense opening week. We have the Eagles as one of the four worst teams in the NFL and it will be proven out on Monday Night.The Bears were right in that game last week until late, and we feel this team is being underrated. Already off a loss and with this being a very winnable game we will back the host here. Chicago is a much better team and the current line is very short.PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-18-16 | Ravens v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show |
268 Baltimore at Cleveland Major overreaction here as the Browns likely will be a better offense with McCown behind center. This team has the receivers to stretch the field and keep this team competitive. We simply can’t trust Joe Flacco in the role of sizable road favorite here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-17-16 | Akron +17.5 v. Marshall | Top | 65-38 | Win | 100 | 66 h 23 m | Show |
165 Akron at Marshall Classic overreaction here as the Zips were heavily bet last week only to be blown out at Wisconsin. The line went from +25 to +21 1/2 at close and the Zips were never in the game. But Terry Bowden and the Zips are always a dangerous road dog and because of last week this line is highly inflated. Akron has won 6 of its last 7 games dating back to last year. Bowden always brings in high quality transfers, so despite bringing back only 7 starters this year the team has talent. As opposed to the Zips, Marshall has played just one game this year, a blowout of Morgan State. The team has back to back huge recruiting rivalry games on deck against Louisville and Pittsburgh. Because of last week’s results this line is at least 4 points higher than it should be, the lookahead for the Thundering Herd adds to our advantage. PLAY AKRON |
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09-15-16 | Houston v. Cincinnati +7 | Top | 40-16 | Loss | -101 | 77 h 54 m | Show |
104 Houston at Cincinnati The Cougars shocked Oklahoma in the opener 33-23 and made a major jump up in the standings. Last week without injured QB Greg Ward the team beat Lamar in a non-covering victory. While we agree this is talented team, there is no way this team should be a touchdown favorite here. First off in the win vs Oklahoma the Sooners won the yards per play battle 6.0 to 5.0. This is a team traveling on a short week to play on ESPN against a divisional rival. The last three years Houston won at home by 3, lost at Cincinnati by 7 and lost at home to Cincinnati by 7. The Cougars were a combined 29-11 the last three years but just 1-2 vs the Bearcats. Cincinnati dominated a Big 10 team on the road last week winning by 18 over Purdue. In the last decade this team is 8-2 ATS as a home dog, winning outright the past two occurrences. This is the biggest game of the season for the host. The fans will be primed and we expect this game to come down to the wire. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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09-11-16 | Bears +6 v. Texans | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
467 Chicago at Houston We love to go against public perception in the opening week and in this contest we attack it on two fronts. First off we have heard nothing but poor reviews for this Bears team this season. Keep in mind the Bears offense faced the 2nd toughest ranking of defenses last year. The team has finished 28th and 27th in the league in games lost to injury the past two seasons. Those negative expectations help us here as the pointspread doesn’t relate to the true levels of these programs. Houston made a terrible money call in signing the questionable Brock Osweiler to a $72 million deal. He struggles passing the ball long and is exactly the same type of quarterback the Texans have had the past few seasons. Spending all that money on a mediocre QB leaves the rest of the team without depth. Houston had positive ratios in turnovers and sacks last year. But keep in mind that the first two seasons in Houston Bill O’Brien’s teams went just 9-7 and 9-7. This despite playing in the weakest division in the league. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-10-16 | Akron +24 v. Wisconsin | Top | 10-54 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
329 Akron at Wisconsin You couldn’t ask for a better spot for Akron to take on the Badgers. Not only was Wisconsin looking to avenge a season opening loss to LSU from two years ago. But the game was a historic contest played in Lambeau Field. Even before the game was actual played you could see the excitement in the faces of the Wisconsin players who would step on this historic field to play a football game. After pulling the upset the players celebrated as if winning the national championship. Now with Akron and Georgia State on deck before the Big 10 season gets underway, do we really expect the Badgers to show the same type of emotion? Akron was the top MAC school last year against the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry on the season. Even when stepping up in class against Oklahoma the team managed just 3.0 ypc, Pittsburgh was more of the same at 2.8 ypc. Terry Bowden always brings in a lot of transfers which is why this team is always so goo on the lines. We expect the Zips to give the Badgers all it cab handle on Saturday. PLAY AKRON |
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09-10-16 | Central Michigan +21 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 113 h 32 m | Show |
327 Central Michigan at Oklahoma State The Chippewas are going to make us money this year and our first chance to cash is on Saturday. The John Bonamego era started last year with a 7-6 mark and he brings back 16 returning starters after just 9 a season ago. While this isn’t the best team in the MAC it’s the most balanced as the Chips are solid on both sides of the ball and has a possible NFL QB in Cooper Rush behind center. This team is 6-1 as a road dog the last two years and covered by 12 1/2 points last year hosting these Cowboys in the opener. The 24 points Oklahoma scored in last years meeting was just a point more than the 23 it scored against Oklahoma last year, a season low for the Cowboys. Oklahoma State crushed SE Louisiana last week but turnovers were the key. The Cowboys average starting field position was its 46 yard line. Oklahoma State has lost 3 of its last 4 games played including the Sugar Bowl loss to Mississippi. This team doesn’t deserve to be a 3 touchdown favorite here against a solid Central Michigan squad. PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
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09-01-16 | South Carolina +4.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
141 South Carolina at Vanderbilt Because of off field concerns Steve Spurrier lost interest in the game the last few years on his tenure. In comes a hungry Will Muschamp to pick up the pieces and bring this program back to previous levels. After seven straight winning seasons the Gamecocks managed a 3-9 record a year ago. We expect a rebound season from South Carolina despite only 9 returning starters.To go from beating Vanderbilt 7 straight games by double figures to now being a dog is just a huge overreaction in our eyes. Vanderbilt has won just 7 total games in the last two years under Derek Mason. The team is 4-7 straight up at home vs FBS programs, with two of those victories coming against Old Dominion and Massachusetts. Under Mason the Commodores have averaged 15.2 and 17.2 points. Hard to lay over a field goal with teams that can’t score. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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08-29-16 | Marlins v. Mets +143 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 143 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
904 Miami at NY Mets Jose Fernandez pitches lights out at home as he is nearly unbeatable, but the same cannot be said when he travels. For some reason he’s just not the same pitcher. Good but not nearly as great. The Marlins also don’t hit nearly as well away from home. Rafael Montego was the prized pitching prospect just a couple years ago. He had a taste of the majors but never showed his potential. Now getting a spot start as an afterthought we see extreme value on this young righty. The Mets own the better bullpen, stronger defense and hit well at home. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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08-18-16 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
959 Arizona at San Diego Archie Bradley was highly thought of in the minors but in a small sample size in the show he has really struggled. Paul Clemens is a journeyman who wouldn’t even be on the staff if the Padres didn’t clear house at the trade deadline. Neither bullpen rates very highly and we expect both to be used tonight. The Padres return from a long road trip ending in Tampa Bay, and the bullpen has gotten used quite a lot. While San Diego hasn’t hit a lick on the road they have played well offensively at home, averaging 6.5 runs per game this month. PLAY OVER |