08-31-19 |
Georgia State v. Tennessee -24 |
|
38-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
Georgia State/Tennessee 3:30: Quite a talent disparity here as Tennessee loaded with 4* recruits with significant playing time last year. Tennessee returns 10 starters offensively and 7 on defense with a veteran secondary. On the other hand, Georgia State, which won only two games last year, returns a significant amount of bodies on both sides of the ball but at a talent level much lower than Tennessee's. Given the fact that the Panthers are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, it will be rough sledding in Knoxville today for the Panthers.
|
08-31-19 |
East Carolina +18 v. NC State |
|
6-34 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
East Carolina/NC State Noon: EC finally has a chance to cover some games this year thanks to the AD finding a decent coach. Mike Houston steps in for Scottie Montgomery (9-25 ATS) with an impressive resume. He coached James Madison to two FCS Championship appearances, one national title and six conference championships. Montgomery did leave him some athletes to work with. He's got a solid versatile QB in Ahlers (1785 pass, 592 rush and a 12/3 TD/INT ratio. Ahlers has weapons to go to and the Pirates have a load of returning starters on the line on both sides of the ball. Pirates are 8-3 ATS vs the ACC and 3-1 ATS in this series. NC State suffered some key losses including QB Ryan Finley along with some very good skill personnel...More discipline and better execution we should see from EC this season and it starts today.
|
08-30-19 |
Oklahoma State -13.5 v. Oregon State |
|
52-36 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
08-29-19 |
Utah -6.5 v. BYU |
|
30-12 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
08-24-19 |
Florida -7 v. Miami-FL |
|
24-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 35 m |
Show
|
Florida/Miami U 7:00: We'll lay a TD here knowing Dan Mullen has a solid core group coming back. Sure, the offensive line is inexperienced with only 1 returning starter but there is experience in the rotation in significant playing time. QB Felipe Franks should has the veteran leadership and has a pretty good supporting cast of weapons. Miami U, however, should reload on defense but the sputtering offense now led by QB Jarren Williams has its work cut out for them. Florida the call.
|
01-07-19 |
Alabama v. Clemson +6 |
Top |
16-44 |
Win
|
100 |
188 h 50 m |
Show
|
Clemson/Alabama 8:00: Closely matched teams with NFL caliber talent across the board. I will go with the stability of the Clemson coaching staff and hungry, revenge seeking (last year's 24-6 semi-finals loss) Tigers. Dabo Swinney is a dangerous bowl dog at 7-1 ATS and he's fielding a better team this year. Sure, Bama is loaded with talent but coaching decisions loom large at times. They let Oklahoma hang around and it almost cost them. Oklahoma and QB Murray simply ran out of time. Clemson presents a much tougher challenge defensively despite the absence of Lawrence. Clemson run stop unit allows a meager 2.6 Y.P.C. and presents an unappreciated secondary not getting respect. Clemson's defensive front can bring heat on Tua (ankle still hurting) to force errant throws in the ball hawking Clemson secondary. We'll look for Clemson's veteran DC Venables to dial up the right schemes taking away top Alabama target Jeudy. On the other hand, Alabama has shown breakdowns in their secondary - Oklahoma - that QB Trevor Lawrence can exploit. And keep in mind that Clemson can run the rock. Clemson led the nation in rushing at 7.4 Y.P.C. RB Etienne is a big time playmaker. Moreover, Alabama will not have an answer for WR Hunter Renfrow and rising star Ross. Clemson the call.
|
01-01-19 |
Texas v. Georgia -11 |
|
28-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
|
01-01-19 |
Kentucky v. Penn State -5.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 47 m |
Show
|
Kentucky/Penn State 1:00: Kentucky sneaked up on teams early with the power run game but defenses adjusted later in the season forcing QB Wilson to throw more; unfortunately, Wilson didn't scare any secondaries. Penn State's defense well schooled and should limit Snell and company. On the other hand, Penn State's all time leading passer McSorely should continue his big play resume and go out a winner. He's got another great complimentary running back Miles Sanders. Penn State the call.
|
01-01-19 |
Iowa v. Mississippi State -6.5 |
|
27-22 |
Loss |
-120 |
11 h 3 m |
Show
|
Mississippi State/Iowa Noon: Joe Moorehead took over for Dan Mullins and didn't miss a beat. Mississippi State controls the #1 scoring defense in NCAA Football and should be able to lock down QB Stanley and company, especially now that one part of the great TE duo - Fant bailed and is preparing for the NFL draft. On the other hand, Mississippi State versatile QB Fitzgerald leads a potent offense under Moorehead. Iowa usually craps out in bowl games vs superior teams and should falter here too.
|
12-31-18 |
Northwestern +7.5 v. Utah |
|
31-20 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
12-31-18 |
Missouri v. Oklahoma State +10 |
|
33-38 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 33 m |
Show
|
|
12-31-18 |
Virginia Tech +7 v. Cincinnati |
|
31-35 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 0 m |
Show
|
Cincinnati/Virginia Tech Noon: I like how VT rallied back after a four game losing stretch throughout November. They came back and won back-to-back games against bowl winners Virginia and Marshall. VT had the tougher schedule between these teams and I believe they'll grit it out here to keep their streak alive of 26 consecutive winning seasons. The AAC has been a lightweight in bowls thus far at 1-4 SU. Cincinnati does have a ground game and will attempt to attack VT's very weakness defensively - defending the run. However, we'll look for veteran DC Bud Foster to come up with a solid defensive plan to limit the damage. On the other side of the ball, VT's QB Willis has done an admirable job in Fuente's pass happy offense. Dog in this series is 4-0 ATS. Can't trust Cincy laying wood; after all, in December they're 0-4 ATS. We'll look for the Hokies to deliver.
|
12-29-18 |
Oklahoma v. Alabama -14 |
|
34-45 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 47 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma/Alabama 8:00: Alabama will have a few players out on suspension but they'll do like they always do: bring in another future NFL baller ready to go. And offensively, Alabama will surely go to the run game and gain the chunk yards against a sieve like defense that's vulnerable in the secondary. So, we'll see plenty of play action from Tua. Alabama will desperately want to keep Heisman winner - Murray off the field. But Alabama has the defensive speed to corral Murray and force errant throws. It won't be easy of course. Murray is great. I eventually see Alabama pulling away here. Oklahoma gives up way too many points. Alabama, on the other hand, can make defensive plays and stops when needed.
|
12-29-18 |
Notre Dame +13.5 v. Clemson |
|
3-30 |
Loss |
-124 |
12 h 19 m |
Show
|
Notre Dame/Clemson 4:00: ND has taken on a pretty tough schedule and answered favorably when needed to. Remember, everyone was writing them off against Michigan but they answered the bell. And now that Ian Book has taken over at the helm, they're more dangerous. Defensively, they're well disciplined and rarely allow explosive plays. They're 10th in scoring defense and will surely run a variety of zone blitzes to test QB Trevor Lawrence. This is the best defense Lawrence and company has faced all season. On the flip side, Clemson's All American DT Lawrence (suspension) is a huge plus for ND's offensive line. He was a major disruptive force. I like QB Ian Book who shows poise and capable of engineering drives. He has a solid line, a consistent RB Williams and a go to target in WR Boykin. We'll look for the disrespected Irish to hang around.
|
12-29-18 |
Arkansas State +2 v. Nevada |
|
13-16 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
Nevada/Arkansas State 1:15: Arkansas State has been a stable bowl participant over the last 7 years with four different head coaches. Blake Anderson taking the baton and running with it. His team finished the season strong again off 4 straight comfortable wins. The Red Wolves are now 47-14 SU from Game 6 out over the last 8 seasons. And they have a load of talent to give Nevada trouble. QB Hansen has been accurate (27 TDs/6 INTs) and has a dangerous receiver in Merritt (939 yards) and a productive RB Murray. Defensively they're lead by DE Bingham who has 9 sacks and 18.5 TFLs. And although Nevada is equally dangerous, they have trouble converting on 3rd downs (34%) which the Red Wolves' defense thrives on. Ark State's defense allowed just 34% conversion down the stretch of the season. We'll look for the Red Wolves to keep the Sun Belt Conference shining in bowl games.
|
12-29-18 |
Florida +6 v. Michigan |
|
41-15 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
Michigan/Florida Noon: Michigan blew out the Gators over the last few years - both under the Mcelwain regime. Mcelwain was the receivers' coach for Michigan this season and will step away as the new HC of Central Michigan. Under the new Florida regime, Dan Mullen will bring a tougher squad. A Florida team that resembles his old Mississippi State teams: hard nosed defense and can run the football. The last three games of the season validated that as the Gators compiled 853 combined rushing yards while QB Franks completed 68% of his passes and 7 TDs/0 INTs plus 3 rush TDs. Sure, they'll face an upgrade in competition defensively. The Wolves do control the #1 defense in terms of total yards; however, OSU found the answer on how to dissect Michigan's defense - which was embarrassed Michigan in their season finale. And the Wolve's won't have a pair of noteworthy starters - both DT Gary and LB Bush Jr. are preparing for the NFL and will sit. On the other side of the ball Michigan's starting LT Bushell-Beatty (undisclosed) won't play which leaves QB Patterson vulnerable to the sack happy Gators. We'll look for Florida to hang around in this one.
|
12-28-18 |
Iowa State +3 v. Washington State |
|
26-28 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 24 m |
Show
|
|
12-28-18 |
Auburn v. Purdue +3.5 |
|
63-14 |
Loss |
-109 |
13 h 5 m |
Show
|
Purdue/Auburn 1:30: Auburn underachieving under Malzahn late in the year. He's now 2-7 ATS from November 23rd out. And he's lost 4 of his last 5 bowl games SU. On the other hand, Purdue's HC Brohm is a superb 15-2 SU/14-3 ATS from Game 11 out. Purdue has played a tough schedule and surely control one of the great upsets of the year on November 10th against Ohio State. Purdue is 7-1 ATS in non-conference. Brohm has done a great job developing QB Blough who has passed for 3500 yards with a 25/8 TD/INT ledger. He's got great support from his veteran offensive line, productive RB Knox, and dangerous WR Rondale Moore. Moreover, Purdue closes in the red zone executing successfully 44 of 48 times. On the other hand, Auburn brings an underachieving 93rd ranked offense to the field. The Tigers' OC Lindsey bailed to Kansas so Mulzahn will take control of the offense for this game. That's actually a good thing to get Auburn ignited. Purdue's defense nothing to rave about but can make plays. We'll look for Purdue to hold them off.
|
12-27-18 |
Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +3 |
|
3-35 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 15 m |
Show
|
Miami-Fla/Wisconsin 5:15: Miami-Fla eager to avenge Wisconsin after getting embarrassed in last season's Orange Bowl in which Wisconsin turned it up several notches in the second half in a 34-24 come from behind victory. Tonight, no warm weather for the Canes and no All-American DT Willis III. Sure, Miami's got the turnover chain, top rated pass defense, top rated run stop unit etc; however, bottom line is they still managed to lose 5 games. Miami's offense had its share of problems and inconsistent QB Rosier will get the start. He's completed just 53.5% of his passes. Sure, Wisconsin's defense is not the most stable but capable of making plays. And yes, QB Jack Coan, takes off his red-shirt to get the start. He's got a good supporting cast including a veteran offensive line and the Doak Walker Winning RB Jonathon Taylor to help him out. Wisconsin is a sweet 13-1 ATS with rest off a conference game and won their last 4 bowl games. Miami-Fla has dropped 7 of their last 8 bowl games. And with Miami-Fla DC Diaz off to Temple after this, how much energy and trust are his defensive players going to give him here? It's questionable and I don't like laying points with uncertainty. Wisconsin the call.
|
12-22-18 |
Buffalo v. Troy +1 |
|
32-42 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
12-22-18 |
Houston v. Army -5.5 |
|
14-70 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 57 m |
Show
|
Houston/Army 3:30: Not sure Houston wants to be here; after all, 4 defensive line starters out including All-American - Oliver. That doesn't bode well against the 2nd best running team in the nation. And versatile QB Hopkins can pass too (956 yards / 6 TD/3 INTs). Sure, Houston has the explosive offense that lit up scoreboards all season. But starting QB King is out and left in the hands of freshman QB Tune. Tune completed just 45% of his passes. And don't underestimate Army's defense. Remember, these guys held the #1 offense in the nation - Oklahoma to 28 points. We'll look for Army to keep their long extended drives strategy in play while keeping Houston's offense off the field.
|
12-22-18 |
Wake Forest v. Memphis -3.5 |
|
37-34 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
12-21-18 |
BYU -12 v. Western Michigan |
|
49-18 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 55 m |
Show
|
|
12-15-18 |
North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State |
|
13-52 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
Utah State/North Texas 2:00: Utah State the better team but not sold on them laying this many points. Aside from going to East Lansing and trading blow for blow with Michigan State (notorious for early struggles against the spread at now 2-5 ATS), Utah State has put up lots of points on mostly lightweights - 73 on Tenn Tech, 59 on UNLV, 61 on New Mexico, 62 on San Jose State. Sure, their QB Love is very good in a potent offense. And defensively, they're an opportunistic ball hawking bunch; however, the Mean Green is not a slouch. Remember, North Texas went down to Arkansas in mid September and blasted them 44-17. North Texas has been overvalued ever since on a dismal 1-7 ATS slide. But we get value with them here as a dog with a similar offense led by QB Fine who posts very similar numbers to Love. The Mean Green also has a run game with Torrey behind a veteran offensive line. Defensively, the Mean Green have been very solid as well. I'll gladly take the 8' with North Texas who has a committed HC in Littrell unlike Utah State's Matt Wells who bolted to Texas Tech.
|
12-08-18 |
Navy v. Army -6.5 |
|
10-17 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 19 m |
Show
|
|
12-01-18 |
Fresno State +1 v. Boise State |
|
19-16 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
12-01-18 |
Georgia +13 v. Alabama |
|
28-35 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
12-01-18 |
Stanford v. California +3 |
|
23-13 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
12-01-18 |
UAB v. Middle Tennessee State -1 |
|
27-25 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
12-01-18 |
Texas +8 v. Oklahoma |
|
27-39 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 28 m |
Show
|
|
11-30-18 |
Utah +6 v. Washington |
|
3-10 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 1 m |
Show
|
Utah/Washington 9:00: Just a bit too many points to give to a Kyle Whittingham coached team. Whittingham is always a dangerous dog in big games. And vying for the PAC 12 Title in an attempt to earn a Rose Bowl big qualifies for a big game. Sure, the Utes are without two of their top skill players - QB Huntley and RB Moss; however, backup QB Shelley has managed games well and has a great supporting cast along with RB Shyne who is getting it done. And defensively, the Utes bring another strong Whittingham tough style defense to the field Friday to limit Washington RB Gaskin - who gashed them for 145 yards early in the season. Washington's HC Peterson is definitely a tough go against this time of year, but a bit too many points given tonight. Huskies have been overvalued most of the year. With Whittingham an amazing 12-0 ATS vs an .850 or less winning percentage team off a double digit SU win, we'll take the points.
|
11-24-18 |
Kentucky -16.5 v. Louisville |
|
56-10 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
11-24-18 |
Colorado v. California -12 |
|
21-33 |
Push |
0 |
16 h 13 m |
Show
|
|
11-24-18 |
Florida -7 v. Florida State |
|
41-14 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
Florida/Florida State Noon: Fla State desperately needs a win to keep from having its first losing season in over 45 years; however, it's not going to happen. Florida is looking to end their drought (0-5 SU) in this series and the battle winner of the first year head coaches will go to Mullen. The Seminoles' offense never got clicking under Taggart. Their run game is producing a meager 2.7 YPC. And that won't cut it vs a staunch Gator defense. Seminoles lack of run game has allowed defenses to tee off on the Blackman and Francois whom collectively got sacked 31 times. Fla's defense has 27 sacks on the year and have a top 20 pass defense. Fla's offense has been gelling with QB Franks, and has a run game. Gators deliver.
|
11-24-18 |
Michigan -3.5 v. Ohio State |
Top |
39-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
110 h 54 m |
Show
|
Michigan/OSU Noon: I mentioned before the season started that Michigan had what it took to be a Final Four team; at this time, I still believe that. The Wolves have the #1 defense in the nation vs the pass and in total yards. Sure OSU QB Haskins is putting up big numbers but I'm not sold on him being a big game QB, especially in crunch time. He did help deliver a dramatic come from behind win at Penn State but got an amazing catch and run help from WR Ben Victor. And sure, OSU will see the end zone, their offense (#2 in the nation) is too prolific to stop. But defensively, OSU allows way too many yards; as a matter of fact, the Buckeyes allow nearly 180 more yards per game than Michigan's defense. That will not cut it against the offense Harbaugh has finally spent years building. And he finally landed the QB he wanted in Shea Patterson. Patterson should have a big game against an OSU defense that has sacked the QB only 19 times this season. That's twelve fewer than last year; of course, Nick Bosa's absence hurt them. But bottom line, OSU's defensive problems have resulted in a 1-6 ATS slide for them. I jumped on Michigan early in the week when this line opened; of course it has been bid up to -4' but still worth jumping on. I do realize that OSU is a dog for the first time in 51 games; however, it's well justified here as Harbaugh gets his first victory over OSU with authority!
|
11-23-18 |
Akron v. Ohio -23.5 |
|
28-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 20 m |
Show
|
Akron/Ohio U Noon: Ohio U still needs a win to play in the MAC Championship and should deliver here. Bobcats dismantled the class of the MAC - Buffalo - on the 14th. The Bulls had no answer for workhorse RB Ouellette (197 yards rushing). Akron does play respectable defense; however, the problem with the Zips is their offensive ineptitude. Last Saturday, on their home field, the Zips couldn't score a TD against the worst defensive unit in the MAC - Bowling Green. Today, on the road, it won't get easier against a hard nosed Ohio U defense that's playing good ball. And Ohio U has won the stat, game and ATS battle in 4 of their last 5 games by a wide margin. Ohio U is playing with revenge from last year's defeat and should roll them. Ohio U 8-1 ATS at home and 9-1 ATS in this series. Akron is a money burning 2-12 ATS as a double-digit conference road dog vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Lay the wood with the Bobcats.
|
11-23-18 |
Eastern Michigan -13.5 v. Kent State |
|
28-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 24 m |
Show
|
Eastern Michigan/Kent State Noon: Big fan of Eastern Michigan which is vying for its 7th win of the season. Chris Creighton has done a great job in his 5th year as HC bringing respectability to a team that's been a MAC doormat for years. This year, the Eagles have a stable offense behind a veteran offensive line; moreover, they have the 35th ranked defense in total yards in the nation. The strength of their defense is in their secondary for they're the 5th ranked pass defense in the nation. Remember, these Eagles upset Purdue September 8th in West Lafayette. The Eagles travel well sporting a 16-2 ATS road ledger. And they're 10-1 ATS on the road vs a less than .500 conference foe off a SU loss. Kent State's defense couldn't stop anybody this season and should have trouble here. Eastern Michigan rolls.
|
11-23-18 |
Buffalo -14.5 v. Bowling Green |
Top |
44-14 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 55 m |
Show
|
Buffalo/Bowling Green Noon: Bowling Green feeling pretty good about themselves after back-to-back wins against conference lightweight - Central Michigan and offensive inept Akron. Today, back to reality for them as Leipold's boys run them ragged. The Bulls, coming off an embarrassing defeat to a very good Ohio U team, should have it together today. Buffalo is 5-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Buffalo has serious offensive weaponry with tall/versatile QB Jackson, vertical threat Anthony Johnson, possession receiver Osborn, and hard running RB Patterson. Sure, statistically, BG has a good pass defense; however, that is because teams can easily run on them. BG's run-stop-unit is allowing 6 YPC! We'll look for a heavy dose of RB Patterson to set up a big scoring fest. We'll look for a usually solid Bulls' defense to tighten up and unleash on BG QB Doege. He's pretty good but his offensive line has issues protecting him and Buffalo should get back their defensive mojo here. BG HC Jinks just 2-7 ATS as a conference home dog. Buffalo the call.
|
11-20-18 |
Ball State v. Miami-OH -17 |
|
21-42 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 6 m |
Show
|
|
11-20-18 |
Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Western Michigan |
|
21-28 |
Loss |
-109 |
18 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
11-17-18 |
West Virginia v. Oklahoma State +7 |
|
41-45 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 46 m |
Show
|
|
11-17-18 |
Bowling Green v. Akron -6.5 |
|
21-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
12 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
11-17-18 |
Colgate +11.5 v. Army |
|
14-28 |
Loss |
-119 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
11-17-18 |
Northwestern +3 v. Minnesota |
Top |
24-14 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
|
11-16-18 |
Memphis v. SMU +7.5 |
|
28-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 30 m |
Show
|
Memphis/SMU 9:00: SMU a dangerous home dog at Gerald J. Ford Stadium where they've covered three straight in that role. Memphis has a porous defense that gives up the big play and SMU can sure ring up explosive plays with QB Hicks. Sure, Memphis will get their share of points here; after all, their offense is well balanced and difficult to contain. Nevertheless, SMU is a momentum team and on a mission to go bowling. SMU a sweet 7-0 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points off back-to-back SU wins. Memphis has had difficulty covering on the road at 1-4 ATS. We'll grab the points in what should be a shootout.
|
11-14-18 |
Buffalo +2.5 v. Ohio |
|
17-52 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 10 m |
Show
|
Buffalo/Ohio 7:00: Buffalo can seize their moment in time and create the most wins in the history of the program along with capturing the MAC East Crown and an invite to Detroit for the MAC Championship. Bulls have the weaponry and the coaching to deliver. They have few weaknesses and play hard. Ohio U is similar in that HC Solich gets the best out of his players and he does have talent; however, the one area of Ohio U that's a concern is the secondary. With top C Jalen Fox out the last six games and a pass defense ranked in the bottom tier in the MAC, trouble looms. Buffalo has the vertical threat Anthony Johnson, possession receiver Osborn, and TE Mabry have been dominant. QB Jackson has a big arm and he's mobile; furthermore, the run game behind Patterson and Marks has been rolling all year. Buffalo 8-0 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs an opponent off a SU loss. Bulls the call.
|
11-10-18 |
California +4 v. USC |
Top |
15-14 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
11-10-18 |
Washington State -6 v. Colorado |
|
31-7 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
11-10-18 |
Illinois v. Nebraska -17 |
|
35-54 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
|
11-09-18 |
Fresno State -2 v. Boise State |
|
17-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 8 m |
Show
|
Fresno State/Boise State 10:20: Fresno followed up last year's strong season with another monster year. And despite the defections along the defensive line, the Bulldogs reloaded to form one of the strongest stop units in the MWC allowing just 4.5 YPP! Sure, the blue turf is tough to play on for travelers and Boise is a rare home dog; however, QB Rypien has his struggles and he hasn't faced this tough of a defense since October 6th when SD State went into Boise and won. Fresno's QB MCMaryion is razor sharp 20 TD/3 INTs and getting great protection from his line (5 times sacked on year). He's got dangerous targets with TE Rice and WR Johnson. Boise's secondary not the same without Pierce; moreover, top tackler LB Whimpey (ACL) injured last week won't serve them justice. Fresno the call.
|
11-09-18 |
Louisville v. Syracuse -20.5 |
|
23-54 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 18 m |
Show
|
Louisville/Syracuse 7:00: What goes around comes around; consequently, Bobby Petrino is now experiencing his share of beatings at the hands of teams he used to run the score up on. Tonight, his counterpart, Dino Babers, who's Orangemen are ranked 13th in the nation, will surely stick it to Petrino - who thrashed Syracuse 56-10 last November. Petrino's Cardinals are in a rebuilding mode after huge defections to the NFL and graduations. Instead of a Heisman Trophy winner (Lamar Jackson) running the show, he's got interception prone Jawan Pass 7 (TD/10 INTs) who sports a shaky 54.5% completion rate and not much help in the run game. And defensively, the Cardinals rank 125th in scoring defense. Syracuse has a talented offense behind QB Eric Dungey and should find the end zone frequently. If the Orangemen can keep the ball out of the hands of L'ville's speedster Hassan Hall (999 all purpose yards), they'll cover this easily. L'ville a poor 1-7 ATS on the road vs AP Top 15 ranked opponents. Syracuse gets sweet revenge in their last home game.
|
11-07-18 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3.5 |
|
15-38 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
Toledo/N. Illinois 8:00: Not a fan of laying half points with a touchdown or a field goal; therefore, if you could bid down to -3 with NIU, that would be comfortable. If you can't, we'll lighten up here. I still believe NIU is the way to go in this important MAC showdown. NIU can clinch the MAC title with a win while Toledo needs a win here plus help from other teams over the next two weeks. NIU has a much better defense than Toledo. The Huskies' defense is anchored by Antonio Jones-Davis and Sutton Smith. And corner McKie had a breakout game at Akron last week with 2 INTs including a pick six. Defensively, Huskies' tough run stop unit should be able to limit the powerful ground game of Toledo. And Rockets' QB Eli Peters, who's not as good as starter Guadnagi, did appear in 7 of 9 games with the Rockets; however, he's completed just 53.7% with 11 TDs/6 INTs. And he's not a run threat. On the other hand, the Huskies' offense has gradually heated up over the course of this half of the season. QB Childers has completed 57% of his passes and is a running threat. He's got a good supporting cast with a veteran O-Line, a hot RB Tre Harbinson off a 169 run performance last week at Akron, and capable receivers in Wesley and D.J. Brown. Huskies are 4-1 ATS following a 450+ yard performance and 10-4 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing. I do realize the Rockets are a strong road team; however, they're just 2-5 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Throw in revenge from last season's 27-17 loss at Toledo and we got a decent play with NIU.
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11-06-18 |
Kent State v. Buffalo -20 |
|
14-48 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 49 m |
Show
|
Kent State/Buffalo 7:30: The road team has dominated this series and Kent has performed well in Buffalo; however, this Bulls team is a different animal. Bulls' QB Jackson is elusive and has dangerous targets in possession receiver Osborn and deep threat Anthony Johnson. Kent's defense ranks in the bottom tier of the MAC. Sure, Kent State finished off lightweight Bowling Green last week but Buffalo will be too steep of a challenge. Kent could keep this competitive in the first half so a 1st half line on Kent State would be the way to go, especially with Bulls' star linebacker Hodge out in the first half because of targeting last week; however, Bulls should wear down Kent State in the second half. Bulls' have a top tier defense in the MAC and although QB Woody Barrett and company looked good last week - remember, Bowling Green's defense is almost non-existent. Kent's offensive line has allowed 35 sacks and Buffalo should scheme accordingly to keep Barrett under duress most of this game. Buffalo a strong 9-0-1 ATS in the 2nd of back to back home games.
|
11-03-18 |
Alabama v. LSU +14.5 |
|
29-0 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 29 m |
Show
|
|
11-03-18 |
Georgia -7.5 v. Kentucky |
Top |
34-17 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 36 m |
Show
|
Georgia/Kentucky Noon: Good value with the Bulldogs equipped to deliver another knockout here. Last year, a 41-13 thrashing. Sure, Georgia graduated many of those players but reloaded with another top 3 FBS class. Kentucky does possess the top scoring defense in the nation but this will be their biggest test with a well balanced run game, a veteran QB Fromm and some top flight receivers. On the other hand, Kentucky relies on jump starting their offense with the power ground game led by Snell. Georgia's rock solid defense is wired to stop this team and surely QB Terry Wilson won't pick the ball hawking Bulldogs' secondary apart. Georgia is a sweet 15-0 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs a conference opponent off a SU dog win. Georgia cruises.
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11-03-18 |
Minnesota -9 v. Illinois |
|
31-55 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 50 m |
Show
|
Minnesota/Illinois Noon: Now that Minnesota has found its QB in redshirt freshman - Tanner Morgan, we'll look for smooth sailing here against the worst defense in the Big 10. Minnesota 5-2 ATS in this series. Illinois just 14-26 ATS vs Big 10 opponents .500 or over.
|
11-03-18 |
Michigan State -1 v. Maryland |
|
24-3 |
Win
|
100 |
84 h 5 m |
Show
|
Michigan State/Maryland Noon: DJ Durkin's return to the sideline should create some animosity and division among the team. Some players walked out of a meeting that was held by Durkin today after the announcement was made that Durkin would be restated as HC. Canada did a solid job holding the program together in the interim. Meanwhile, Michigan State regaining the mojo and playing like they were expected to prior to the season. They're coming into this one off a big win over Purdue and with questions at QB; nevertheless, like the way they're playing now and will back Michigan State. Spartans 19-9-2 ATS on the road vs teams with winning home records. MD a poor 2-6 ATS in November and not strong off blowout wins. Michigan State the call.
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11-02-18 |
Colorado +3 v. Arizona |
|
34-42 |
Loss |
-105 |
21 h 30 m |
Show
|
Colorado/Arizona 10:30: Both of these teams are heading in opposite directions. Arizona is on a 3-1 ATS run off a blowout win over ranked Oregon. Colorado, on an 0-3 slide, collapsed last week surrendering a 31-3 third quarter lead to lightweight Oregon State. Colorado did get QB Montez going last week and he should work over an embattled Arizona secondary. A Buffaloes player only meeting was held to salvage this season. We'll look for Colorado to get it rolling here. Buffaloes 7-2 ATS on the road with revenge and overdue to get back on track. The Buffaloes are also 5-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss. Arizona sports a 1-6 ATS mark at home vs an opponent with revenge. With the road team at 6-0 ATS in this series and the Buffaloes a pretty good Friday night team at 5-1 ATS, we'll grab the field goal here.
|
11-01-18 |
Temple +11 v. Central Florida |
|
40-52 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 53 m |
Show
|
Temple/UCF 7:30: Temple HC Collins continues to be a spread covering machine as he rattled off a 6-0 ATS run. Collins is 13-4 ATS since late September of last season with the Owls. Both teams coming off a bye week and I'll give the edge to Temple. Their pass defense is 4th in the FBS and with uncertainty at QB for Milton (GTD) with an undisclosed injury, we'll look for the Owls to be well prepared to face either him or Mack - who played last week at East Carolina. I'm not crazy about Temple QB Russo (10 INT) but he showed grit in OT win vs Cincinnati on the 20th. And he's surrounded by a solid group including RB Armstead (questionable). Temple is looking to avenge last year's 45-19 loss at home. This year's Temple team is much better but UCF is down a few notches from last year's bunch despite the undefeated record. Take the gritty Owls and the points here.
|
10-30-18 |
Miami-OH v. Buffalo -7 |
|
42-51 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 21 m |
Show
|
Miami-OH/Buffalo 8:00: Bulls on a roll and should exact revenge on the Redhawks from last year's loss. Buffalo has a more balanced offense with 6'7" QB Jackson throwing to a quality duo in go-to-guy Osborn and deep threat Johnson. Miami's numbers look pretty good but questionable opposition. Bulls a sweet 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of more than 2 points with revenge. They've covered 8 of their last 10 at home and overdue to turn the table in this series. Buffalo the call.
|
10-27-18 |
Tulane +1 v. Tulsa |
|
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
10-27-18 |
Arizona State v. USC -3 |
Top |
38-35 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 20 m |
Show
|
|
10-27-18 |
Texas Tech v. Iowa State -5.5 |
|
31-40 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
10-27-18 |
Army v. Eastern Michigan -1 |
|
37-22 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
10-26-18 |
Miami-FL -3.5 v. Boston College |
|
14-27 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 1 m |
Show
|
Miami/BC 7:00: Miami-Fla had time to stew over their loss at Virginia on the 13th. QB Rosier should get the start tonight and get the Hurricane offense finally heading in the right direction. Defensively, Miami has been strong - allowing a measly 236 YPG or 3 yards per play. That's 100+ less YPG than their counterpart - BC gives up. Miami is 6-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Miami-Fla HC Richt is a sweet 34-4 away as a conference favorite of more than 2 points. On the other hand, BC is a mere 1-9 SU / 2-7-1 ATS as a home dog under Addazio. Got to go with The U here.
|
10-25-18 |
Baylor +14 v. West Virginia |
|
14-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
Baylor/West Virginia 7:00: At first glance, appears the Mounties will get their act back in gear, after suffering bad loss to Iowa State on the 13th, and roll the defenseless Bears; however, not so fast. Bears have been extremely competitive in this series trading blow for blow with the Mounties the last few seasons. Bears' QB Brewer has been solid in leading a still explosive offense under Rhule. And Baylor a bit more disciplined in holding on to the ball and less penalties. WV a disappointing 1-6 ATS as a conference favorite with rest gives us value with also rested Bears.
|
10-20-18 |
NC State +17.5 v. Clemson |
Top |
7-41 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
NC State/Clemson 3:30: NC State has played a light schedule but odds makers over adjusted with the generous amount of points. Clemson has been over valued much of the year as their 2-4 ATS mark illustrates. And the Tigers haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of opponents either - Furman, GA Southern, as well as struggling conference foes G Tech and Wake Forest. And the blowout of WF surely lends value. NC State has covered 6 of the last 8 in this series and won't go into Death Valley intimidated. NC State has an efficient offense run by ACC's top passer Finley (335 YPG). And he's only been sacked twice this year. He's got a good arsenal of weaponry including WR Harmon. Moreover, like the NC State defense which allows just 16.8 PPG. Wolfpack HC Doeren an outstanding 36-6 SU when his team outgains opponent. And throw in that the Wolfpack is 12-0 ATS as a conference dog with rest and we have ourselves a Top Play.
|
10-20-18 |
Michigan -7 v. Michigan State |
|
21-7 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
Michigan/Michigan State Noon: This should be the year Harbaugh delivers against Michigan State. The Spartans have covered 10 straight in this series and won outright 4 of the last 5. Today, however, should belong to Michigan. The Wolves have cleaned up their game since the Week 1 debacle against Notre Dame. QB Patterson is playing like the guy Harbaugh expected him to be. Patterson and the run game decimated a pretty good Badgers' defense last week. Michigan State is having trouble generating a pass rush (86th in nation) and their QB Lewerke has not lived up to the pre-season hype. He surely won't put a dent in the twisted steel defense of the Wolverines which is giving up a meager 3.9 YPP. Wolves should finally deliver.
|
10-13-18 |
Colorado +7 v. USC |
Top |
20-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 21 m |
Show
|
Colorado/USC 10:30: Like the chances of the vengeful Buffaloes. Colorado has been competitive in this series at 3-1-1 ATS yet hasn't beaten them in over a decade. Colorado is a sweet 7-0 ATS on the road with revenge. USC, however, is a poor 2-12 ATS vs conference opponents with revenge off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. USC defense a shell of what it used to be and accurate QB Montez (75% completions with 14 TD/2 INT) can keep the Buffaloes in this one. Colorado sports a solid veteran defense that allows just 18.4 PPG. Not a fan of the inconsistent USC offensive line. We'll look for them to keep QB J.T. Daniels and company at bay.
|
10-13-18 |
Miami-FL v. Virginia +7.5 |
|
13-16 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 10 m |
Show
|
|
10-13-18 |
Baylor +14.5 v. Texas |
|
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 47 m |
Show
|
Baylor/Texas 3:30: Texas has a tendency to play down to opponents occasionally when things are going good. And things are going good for Herman and company as they sport three Top 25 wins and rank 14th in the nation. Keep in mind though that Texas sports an 0-7 ATS mark off back to back SU wins and they're just 1-10 ATS after scoring 35 or more points vs an opponent with revenge. Well, Baylor is seeking to avenge last year's 38-7 debacle. Baylor no joke. They're equipped with the 12th ranked offense in the nation and do sport a respectable 5-0 ATS mark as a road dog of less than 19 points against an opponent .800 or lower. Bears' QB Brewer has some healthy weapons in Hurd and RB Lovett (good to go) to stay in this one. Bears the call.
|
10-13-18 |
Central Florida -5 v. Memphis |
|
31-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
10-12-18 |
Arizona v. Utah -13.5 |
|
10-42 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 41 m |
Show
|
|
10-12-18 |
South Florida v. Tulsa +8 |
|
25-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
|
10-11-18 |
Texas Tech v. TCU -7 |
|
17-14 |
Loss |
-106 |
44 h 42 m |
Show
|
Texas Tech/TCU 7:30: TCU beat up TT last year in Lubbock 27-3. Sure, TT is dangerous off a bye week and set for revenge with a veteran group; however, still not sold on their defense which allows 448 YPG and 6.2 yards per play. TCU is a sweet 6-0 ATS at home with rest vs an opponent with revenge. And they're 6-0 ATS after Iowa State. TCU defense once again in the top tier of the Big 12 allowing just 304 YPG and 4.5 yards per play. TCU will be prepared to face QB Bowman (collapsed lung vs WV) and backup Jett Duffey who threw for 173 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT against West Virginia after Bowman went down. TCU likes to eat clock behind their run game led by Darius Anderson. Tech just 1-6 ATS on the conference road getting 7 or less. TCU the call.
|
10-06-18 |
Ohio -11.5 v. Kent State |
|
27-26 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 23 m |
Show
|
Ohio U/Kent State 3:30: Bobcats' ground game pretty solid - pounding out 224 YPG - should run up some numbers on a Kent State defense that allows 203 YPG. Bobcats blasted the Flashes last year 48-3 and Kent State remains in a rebuilding mode under first year HC Lewis. Bobcats 4-0 ATS in series. Ohio U the call.
|
10-06-18 |
LSU v. Florida +3 |
|
19-27 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
LSU/Florida 3:30: Florida, with conference revenge as a home dog off a SU dog win is too good to pass up at a perfect 7-0 ATS in that role! HC Mullen has installed a run game similar to that of his old Miss State teams. They're grinding out 5.3 YPC and QB Franks is starting to get in passing rhythm as a result. LSU has started strong but long overdue for klunker and it should come here. Remember, Orgeron is a mere 7-20 SU as a head coach vs winning SEC foes in his career. We'll look for the 9th ranked scoring defense of Florida to turn the table on hot LSU offense. Florida the call.
|
10-06-18 |
Oklahoma v. Texas +7.5 |
|
45-48 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 8 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma/Texas Noon: Tom Herman is becoming one of the great underdog coaches of the new era of football. He's now 10-1 ATS as a dog after beating TCU this season as a 3 point dog. As this revenge scenario unfolds, Herman should clearly have his troops ready to compete at a high level in one of the most fierce rivalries in college football. Oklahoma has had them defensive issues this season (allow 405 YPG) and Texas is moving the ball well under Ehlinger who hasn't thrown an interception over his last 128 pass attempts. On the flip side, Texas defense has been pretty solid, has a ball hawking secondary and able to contain the explosive Sooner offense to a degree. Longhorns have covered 5 straight in this series (all as a dog) and given a touchdown and a hook today, gives us great value with Texas. Sooners just 2-8 ATS on a neutral field and 1-4 ATS off a SU win. Texas the call.
|
10-06-18 |
Northwestern +10 v. Michigan State |
Top |
29-19 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
Northwestern/Michigan State Noon: Rough three game skid for Northwestern; however, competitive all season including last week vs Michigan when their offense shut down in the second half. Look for Fitzgerald's boys to step up their game here. NW is 12-5 ATS after accumulating less than 275 years the previous week. And NW has covered 4 straight on the Big Ten road and an amazing 7 straight at East Lansing. I like NW's LBs Fisher and Gallagher. And their defensive line led by Joe Gaziano and Jordan Thompson should be disruptive to the Spartan's offensive line which has struggled all season. Northwestern the call.
|
09-29-18 |
Ohio State -3 v. Penn State |
|
27-26 |
Loss |
-130 |
8 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
09-29-18 |
South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky |
|
10-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
42 h 30 m |
Show
|
South Carolina/Kentucky 7:30: Kentucky has the potent ground game with Snell that's been working for them but feel Muschamp's boys will cool it down. South Carolina wasn't able to stop Georgia's explosive offense but Kentucky's offense is clearly not as versatile. QB Wilson not nearly a major threat. On the other hand, veteran QB Bentley is off to a good start and surely will be a big test for the Kentucky secondary. Kentucky has gotten the best in this series but SC in a good spot. Kentucky's Stoops a money burning 0-9 ATS following an ATS win of 20+. S. Carolina continues good travel at 0-6 ATS as the underdog in this series (4-1) should deliver.
|
09-29-18 |
Utah v. Washington State +1.5 |
Top |
24-28 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
Utah/Washington State 6:00: Like getting points with a Washington State team that's been hot at home (7-0 ATS) and in September (7-0 ATS). Cougars have an outstanding QB in Minshew II (71% completions / 11 TD/ 3 INT). He torched the USC defense last week and should find ways in moving the football against Utah's defense. Sure, Utah has the nation's #1 ranked defense; however, that rank is somewhat misleading with N. Illinois and Weber State on schedule in two of three of their games. The problem with Utah is their offense in which fumbled seven times and two interceptions. Washington State's defense is ball hawking and should be on their game at home. Furthermore, Leach has had Whittingham's number as Washington State sports a 3-0 ATS mark in this series. Cougars deliver.
|
09-29-18 |
Arkansas v. Texas A&M -20.5 |
|
17-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
36 h 47 m |
Show
|
Arkansas/Texas A&M Noon: This one spells more trouble for Arkansas, which can't find an offensive rhythm. Razorbacks rank in the low tier of the SEC at 15.7 PPG and have also been horrific on special teams; consequently, the Hogs have put their defense in bad field position costing them 33 PPG. A&M has a potent offense under Jimbo Fisher ranking 7th nationally in YPG at 546. The difficulty for Arkansas will be trading points and I don't see that happening. A&M has already battled the upper echelon of the SEC in Clemson and Alabama and covered both. Arkansas has dropped all of their games ATS to lesser competition. Aggies' defense better than the numbers tell. We'll lay the wood with Texas A&M.
|
09-22-18 |
North Texas -12.5 v. Liberty |
|
47-7 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
09-22-18 |
Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5 |
|
56-27 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
09-22-18 |
Ohio +7.5 v. Cincinnati |
|
30-34 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
|
09-21-18 |
Washington State v. USC -4 |
|
36-39 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
09-20-18 |
Tulsa v. Temple -7 |
|
17-31 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 13 m |
Show
|
Tulsa/Temple 7:30: Temple is coming off shocking Maryland after back to back losses. We'll look for the Owls winning momentum to continue while Tulsa should underachieve again. Owls a sweet 10-0 ATS vs an opponent off a SU loss. Tulsa, on the other hand, 1-9 ATS vs a less than .500 opponent off a double-digit SU win. Owls worked Tulsa over last year in regular season finale. And if QB Frank Nutile is unable to go, surely Anthony Russo can get it done again after a strong effort at Maryland. Owls have a better defense and special teams than the Hurricane. Temple, which is solid defensively, should bring the heat on Tulsa's struggling QB Skipper. Temple defense held Maryland to 1 of 12 on 3rd down conversions last week. Temple the call.
|
09-15-18 |
Arizona State v. San Diego State +6 |
|
21-28 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 29 m |
Show
|
|
09-15-18 |
USC v. Texas -3 |
|
14-37 |
Win
|
100 |
42 h 5 m |
Show
|
USC/Texas 8:00 pm: USC is 0-9 ATS as a dog of less than 8 points over the last four years!
|
09-15-18 |
South Florida -10.5 v. Illinois |
|
25-19 |
Loss |
-106 |
38 h 4 m |
Show
|
|