Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-24-22 | Baylor v. Iowa State -133 | 31-24 | Loss | -133 | 46 h 9 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Iowa State 12:00 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Iowa State -133 (5*) Iowa State is coming off a 43-10 shellacking of Ohio U. and outgained them by an enormous by 230 yards. The Cyclones are allowing a mere 234.3 yards per game which has sparked them to a 3-0 start to the season. The Cyclones defense has yet to allow an opponent to rush for 100 or more yards. Since 2020, Iowa State has gone 6-0 SU&ATS at home after allowing 125 yards or less rushing in each of their previous 2 games. Additionally, Iowa State will be playing with revenge by way of last year’s 31-29 loss at Baylor in a game that the Cyclones closed as a 7.0-point road favorite. Any college football home team that allows 285 yards or fewer per contest and is coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 yards or more, resulted in those home teams going 34-2 SU (94.4%) since 2018. Give me Iowa State on the money line. |
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09-24-22 | Duke +7.5 v. Kansas | 27-35 | Loss | -117 | 46 h 1 m | Show | |
Duke @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Duke +7.5 (5*) Someone is going to come out of this game with a 4-0 record. Raise your hand if you predicted that kind of start from either team. Now your hand down if you raised because you’re either a pathological or blatant liar. Kansas is coming off upset wins as an away underdog at Houston and West Virginia. Despite their 3-0 start with 1 of those wins coming on the road, Duke is just 10-18 in their last 28 away games. The Blue Devils are at a +5 turnover differential thus far in 2022. Since 1980, any non-conference college football away underdog of 2.5 to 9.5 that’s coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’ve won 11 or fewer of its last 28 road games, versus an opponent off 2 straight away underdog SU upset win, resulted in those away underdogs going 8-0 ATS. Those away underdogs also won 6 of those 8 contests straight up. Give me Duke plus the points. |
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09-22-22 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech +1.5 | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 21 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Virginia Tech 7:30 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Virginia Tech +1.5 (5*) Virginia Tech is coming off a 27-7 win over Wofford and outgained them by 276 yards. The Hokies are 2-1 thus far and their defense has been outstanding while having allowed 12.3 points and 199.7 points per game. During West Virginia’s only 2 games versus FBS opponents this season their defense allowed 46.5 points and 402.0 yards per game. Any college football home team that outgained their previous opponent by 275 yards or more and its defense is allowing an average of 225 or fewer yards per game, resulted in those home teams going 34-2 SU (94.2%) since 2018. That exact betting angle is also a perfect 12-0 SU since 2020. Since this college football SU betting angle supports the home underdog in this matchup it takes on even greater significance. Give me Virginia Tech plus the small number. |
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09-17-22 | UTSA +13 v. Texas | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Texas 8:00 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: UTSA +13.0 (5*) Texas is coming off a gut-wrenching 20-19 loss to then #1 Alabama in a game they closed as a massive 20.5-point home underdog. The Longhorns have their Big 12 Conference opener coming up next versus Texas Tech and this shapes up to be a flat spot for them emotionally on Saturday. After all, it’s just human nature when prediction Texas won’t come close to matching the intensity level and razor-sharp focus they displayed last week versus Alabama, and especially so versus an opponent from Conference USA. Furthermore, the top 2 quarterbacks on the Longhorns depth chart were injured in the Alabama loss and their 3rd stringer Maalik Murphy has been also sidelined with an undisclosed injury. They may be forced to go with 4th string quarterback Charles Wright. It’s also worth noting that star running back Bijan Robinson was also banged up and is listed as day-to-day. Getting up emotionally for this game won’t be an issue for the UTSA Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are coming off a 41-38 overtime win at Army and opened the season with a narrow 37-35 loss to then nationally ranked Houston. This is a UTSA program which has gone 16-4 SU in their last 20 games and includes 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as an underdog. I went with Texas +20.5 last Saturday but this week they will be a fade. Give me UTSA plus the points. |
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09-17-22 | Mississippi State -130 v. LSU | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -130 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ LSU 6:00 PM ET Game# 167-168 Play On: Mississippi State -130 (10*) LSU opened as a 1.0-point favorite in this contest and were overvalued at that simply because of their brand name. Don’t be misled by their 65-17 home blowout win last week over an FCS team in Southern University. This is a team in transition under new head coach Brian Kelly and their roster and their 2 deep roster is filled with first year transfers. Mississippi State has looked terrific during their 2-0 starts with a 49-23 home win over Memphis in their season opener and then last week’s 39-17 blowout of Arizona on the road. The Bulldogs will be out to revenge a narrow 28-25 home loss to LSU a season ago. The Bulldogs have held their own in its last 4 trips to Baton Rouge going 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. The mad professor Mike Leach’s air raid attack has amassed a combined 770 yards passing in their first 2 games. Give me Mississippi State on the money line for a Top Play. |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State v. Washington State -16.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 21 m | Show | |
Colorado State @ Washington State 5:00 PM ET Game# 161-162 Play On: Washington State -16.5 (5*) Washington State is coming off a 17-14 upset win at Wisconsin and did so as a 20.5-point underdog. They will be facing a Colorado State team coming off a 34-19 upset loss to Middle Tennessee State at home in a game they closed as a 14.5-point favorite. This sets up and extremely profitable college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football home favorite of 11.0 to 30.0-points that coming off an upset win as a road underdog of 10.0 or greater has gone 22-1 ATS (95.6%) since 1990. If they’re facing an opponent coming off a loss, the betting angle improves to 13-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 30.9 points per game. Give me Washington State minus the points. |
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09-17-22 | Purdue v. Syracuse -118 | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 41 h 24 m | Show | |
Purdue @ Syracuse 12:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Syracuse -118 (5*) Purdue is a solid team that should be a bowl team come season’s end. However, this will be a tough spot for them on the road versus a Syracuse team which has played well on both sides of the ball during their 2-0 start to the season. The Orange are +5 in the turnover department after wins over Connecticut 48-14 and Louisville 31-7. As a matter of fact, they committed no turnovers in those contests. The Orange outgained those 2 opponents by an average of 189.0 yards per game. Purdue is 1-1 after losing at home to Penn State 35-31 in their season opener and trouncing Indiana State 56-0 at home last week. Any college football home pick or favorite that’s coming off 2 consecutive wins in which they allowed 14 points or less, versus an opponent that scored 31 points or more in each of its previous 2 games, resulted in those home favorites going 45-2 SU (95.7%) since 2015. Give me Syracuse on the money line. |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 43 m | Show | |
Florida State @ Louisville 7:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*) Regarding betting trends, we took advantage of a similar situation last week by taking Texas +21.0 over Alabama. The Longhorns came oh so close to winning that game outright during a 20-19 defeat. In that scenario, over 80% of betting tickets and money was wagered on Alabama. Believe it or not, the betting trend percentages in this game exceed last week’s previously mentioned occurrence, and favors the small road favorite Florida State Seminoles. It’s worth repeating, more times than not when the betting percentages exceed 80% to one side, betting the other team is the right move. Florida State is coming off a 24-23 win over LSU last week in a game they closed as a 4.0-point underdog. However, let’s keep it real Seminoles backers, that’s an LSU team that was playing in their season opener while playing with a new coaching staff and large turnover in player personnel. The Seminoles also held a slight edge in respect to already having a game under the belt after defeating Duquesne in Week 0. This will be just the 4th time since 2018 that Florida State has been a road favorite. The Seminoles went 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU during the previous 3 in that exact role. Louisville showed a ton of character during last week’s 20-14 win at Central Florida in a contest they closed as a 5.5-point underdog. They Cardinals were down 14-7 in that contest, and it was on the heels of a dismal performance at Syracuse the week before which resulted in a 31-7 blowout loss. Yet, they outscored UCF 13-0 during 2nd half action to pull off a much-needed upset win. Look for them to carry that momentum into this week’s home opener. Give me Louisville plus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Houston +3.5 v. Texas Tech | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 54 h 33 m | Show | |
Houston @ Texas Tech 4:00 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Houston +3.5 (5*) Texas Tech is coming off last Saturday’s 63-10 rout of Murray State and covered as a 38.0-point home favorite. Since 2020 the Red Raiders 0-4 SU&ATS off an ATS cover and when facing an opponent coming off a SU win. Texas Tech lost those 4 contests by an average of 25.6 points per game. Houston went 12-2 last season losing only to College Football Playoff participant Cincinnati and ironically enough Texas Tech. So, obviously the Cougars will be out for big time revenge. They almost got looking ahead in last week’s season opening 37-35 road win versus defending Conference USA champion UTSA. That was an experienced UTSA team that went 12-2 last season and began 2021 with a perfect 11-0 record. Give me Houston plus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Tennessee v. Pittsburgh +6.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET Game# 347-348 Play On: Pittsburgh +6.5 (10*) Tennessee is coming off an encouraging 59-10 home blowout win in their season opener last Saturday and easily covered as a 37.0-point favorite. Regardless of that emphatic win, Tennessee has gone a dismal 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in their last 5 as an away favorite of 2.0 or greater. Pittsburgh is the higher ranked team, and the defending ACC champions. Yet, here they are as a touchdown underdog at home. Normally I would side with the sportsbooks in situations such as these, and then label it as a sucker play. Nevertheless, this is one of those very rare occasions I don’t have that mindset and falls under the category of there’s an exception to every sports betting rule. Recent seasons have displayed have shown me that when you disrespect Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers, it’s like poking the bear who was hibernating in his winter cave. Any college football Game 2 non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (Pittsburgh) that’s coming off a non-conference home SU win, but either pushed or failed to cover, versus an opponent (Tennessee) coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 2002. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 14 games outright. Give me Pittsburgh plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-10-22 | Colorado v. Air Force -17 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 53 h 5 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Air Force 3:30 PM ET Game# 351-352 Play On: Air Force -17.0 (5*) This one jumped right off the page at me. We have a service academy team from the Mountain West Conference as a more than 2-touchdown favorite over a Power 5 Conference team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog. Well, I’m not falling for the bait. Colorado opened the season last Saturday with a terrible effort in a 38-13 blowout loss at home to TCU. That’s a TCU team that was playing with a new coaching staff and a large turnover in personnel. Furthermore, Colorado went 0-5 SU&ATS on the road last season and lost by 17.4 points per game. Air Force easily handled a good FCS program in Northern Iowa while walking away with a convincing 48-17 home win. The Falcons had an enormous 691 yards of total offense in that victory. Since 2020, Air Force has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a double-digit home favorite versus FBS opponents and won by 25.3 points per game. Moreover, during that identical time span, Air Force was 6-0 SU&ATS immediately following a game in which they had 475 yards or more of total offense. Give me Air Force minus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Alabama v. Texas +21 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show | |
Alabama @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 335-336 Play On: Texas +21.0 (5*) You would have to be crazy to bet against Alabama after seeing them squash Utah State last week 55-0 and outgained them in total yards by 559-136. That would be the opinion of a vast majority of bettors this week based on early returns. Nonetheless, this line moved quickly from the opening number of 17.0 to 20.0. There also has been more than 80% of tickets and money wagered going on Alabama. The sportsbooks win a heck of a lot more than they lose when the betting trends are so lopsided toward one side. Besides, it’s not like Texas is a horrible team. The Longhorns opened their season with last Saturday’s 52-10 won over UL-Monroe and covered as a huge 37.0-point favorite. Texas pulled of the hat trick in that win by scoring on offense, defense, and special teams. You also know that offensive guru and head coach Steve Sarkisian didn’t come close to unveiling his playbook last week. I’m not willing go out on a limb and call for a Texas outright upset. However, really like their chances of staying inside this sizable number. |
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09-10-22 | North Carolina v. Georgia State +7.5 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 50 h 40 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Georgia State 12:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Georgia State +7.5 (5*) Despite allowing 40 points in the 4th quarter last week at Appalachian State, North Carolina still managed to escape with a thrilling 63-61 win. Apparently by the price that ticket brokers were charging, that game was much bigger in North Carolina than the rest of the country realized. Now the Tar Heels go on the road for a 2nd consecutive week to take on another Sun Belt Conference opponent. Keep in mind, up next for North Carolina is a home game versus nationally ranked Notre Dame. This sets up as a flat spot for the Tar Heels. Additionally, the Tar Heels defense has allowed 84 points and 984 yards during their first 2 games. Georgia State lost their season opener last week 35-14 at South Carolina. However, the 35 points allowed is misleading since they held South Carolina to only 306 yards of total offense. So you can make a strong case that this will be the best defense that North Carolina would have faced so far in 2022. This line opened with Georgia State as a 9.0-point home underdog, and now it’s at 7.5 despite just 37% of tickets bet siding with the home side. Surely it sounds and smells like a sharp money move to me. Give me Georgia State plus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Duke v. Northwestern -9.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
Duke @ Northwestern 12:00 PM ET Game# 329-330 Play On: Northwestern -9.5 (-115) (5*) Duke got off to a shining start last week as they blanked a hapless Temple team 30-0 at home. The red flag for me in that result is the fact that Duke amassed 510 yards of total offense in that contest but only managed to score 30 points. By the way, Duke has gone 0-8 SU&ATS in their last 8 away games and lost by a massive average of 25.6 points per contest. The average closing point-spreads for Duke in those 8 games was +8.5. Northwestern is coming off an impressive 31-28 season opening win over Nebraska in a game that played 2 weeks ago in Dublin, Ireland, and they did so as a closing 10.5-point underdog. The Wildcats racked up 538 yards of total offense in that game. Northwestern has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 4.0 or greater and they won by a decisive margin of 26.8 points per game. The Wildcats will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 30-23 loss at Duke last season. Any college football home favorite of 9.5 or great that’s coming off a double-digit underdog upset win in which they scored 31 points or more, and its playing game 2 through game 7 of their season, resulted in those home favorites going a very profitable 28-8 ATS (77.7%) since 1983. Give me Northwestern minus the points. |
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09-09-22 | Louisville +5.5 v. Central Florida | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 4 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Central Florida 7:30 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Louisville +5.5 (5*) Central Florida ran roughshod over South Carolina State in their 56-10 season opening win. However, that was against an opponent that competes at the FCS level and not a “Power 5 Conference” team coming up. Louisville was thoroughly embarrassed in a 31-7 lopsided loss to Syracuse last Saturday in a game they closed as a 5.0-point favorite. I look for the Cardinals to bounce back on Friday evening. The Cardinals have 8 returning starters from a team that scored 42 points and racked up 501 yards of total offense in a win over Central Florida last season. Give me Louisville plus the points. |
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09-04-22 | Florida State +4 v. LSU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Florida State vs. LSU 7:.0 PM ET Game# 233-234 Play On: Florida State +4.0 (5*) It’s the debut of Brian Kelly as the new head coach of LSU. However, there’s been a huge personnel changeover and with a new coaching staff usually doesn’t equate to teams being sharp early in the season and especially so in their opener. Kelly has brought in 15 players from the transfer portal including former Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels. This is a crucial season for Florida State head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles have gone an extremely disappointing 8-13 during his first 2 seasons in Tallahassee. They return 9 players each on defense and offense and are #11 nationally in returning production. As a matter of fact, 32% of last year’s starts were by freshmen. Florida State saw 6 of their 12 games last season decided by exactly 3 points and they went 3-3 during those contests. Florida State is coming off last week’s 47-7 blowout win over Duquesne who’s plays at the FCS level. They were able to rack up 638 yards of total offense in that contest and included 406 of those on the ground. Granted the level of competition leaves a lot to be desired but having that game experience and facing an opponent that’s playing their season opener surely will be beneficial. Give me Florida State plus the points. |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 19 m | Show | |
Boise State @ Oregon State 10:30 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Oregon State -2.5 (5*) After recording 10 wins or more for 6 straight seasons excluding 2020 when Boise State played only 7 games due to covid, that streak came to an end under first year head coach Andy Avalos. Oregon State went 7-6 last season and made it to a bowl game for a first time since 2013. Ironically enough, there opponent in that bowl game was Boise State. Last season marked the first time also since 2013 that the Beavers finished with a winning record. It speaks volumes to me when a downtrodden program like Oregon State comes up favorite in this spot versus a perennial Top 25 team. Give me Oregon State minus the points. |
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09-03-22 | Notre Dame v. Ohio State UNDER 59.5 | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 34 h 48 m | Show | |
Notre Dame @ Ohio State 7:30 PM ET Game# 171-172 Play On: Under 59.5 (5*) Both Notre Dame and Ohio State bring back 8 returning starters on defense. Ohio State will look to replace a pair of starting wide receivers that were 1st round draft choices in the 2022 NFL draft. This will be only the 5th time that Notre Dame has been a double-digit underdog since 2016 and they average a paltry 14.2 points scored per game in those outings. Furthermore, the last 4 times Notre Dame found themselves in that exact situation, they played 4-0 to the under and there was a combined average of 40.5 points scored per game. Any college football game with a total of 56.5 to 63.0 where both defenses have 8 of more returning starters, and each team is from a “Power 5 Conference”, resulted in those contests playing 26-2 (92.9%) to the under since 2018. The average total in those 28 contests was 59.5 and there was a combined 48.8 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-03-22 | Army +2.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
Army @ Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: Army +2.5 (10*) Coastal Carolina returns only 7 starters from a program that’s won 11 games in each of their previous 2 quarterbacks. One of those returning starters is Grayson McCall but he won’t have the supporting cast he was afforded last season. Furthermore, Army is adept at dominating time of possession with their triple option running attack which in turn can keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Coastal ended last season on a streak of 21 consecutive weeks ranked in the Top 25. However, here they are as a short home favorite and the sportsbooks are begging you to take them. Army has gone a combined 18-7 the last 2 seasons under current head coach Jeff Monken. Last year concluded with a 24-22 bowl win over Missouri from the SEC. The Black Knights return 14 starters including 8 on offense. Army will control the clock with long time-consuming scoring drives which will frustrate the Chanticleers. Give me Army plus the small number for a Top Play. |
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09-03-22 | Houston v. UTSA +4 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Houston @ UTSA 3:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: UTSA +4.0 This is a much bigger game for UTSA than Houston. The Roadrunners rarely get to host a nationally ranked opponent like #24 Houston. Houston returns 13 starters from a team that went 12-2 last season including a bowl game win over Auburn. Yet, this line opened as Houston being 6.5-point favorite and is now down to 4.0. UTSA is no slouch by any means. The Roadrunners went 12-2 last season and won the Conference USA title. It was the best win percentage and numbers of wins in program history. Since head coach Jeff Traylor took over as head coach in 2020, UTSA has gone 11-1 SU at home and that includes 9-0 in their last 9 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Give me UTSA plus the points. |
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09-03-22 | North Carolina v. Appalachian State +105 | 63-61 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Appalachian State 12:00 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: Appalachian State +105 North Carolina is coming off a 6-7 season which marked the end of their star quarterback Same Howell’s collegiate career. Don’t ne mislead by the Tar Heels 56-24 blowout win over Florida A&M last week who had 24 players suspended. Even with that, North Carolina led that game by only 7 with less than 2 minutes remaining in the half. The Tar Heels do return 8 starters on defense, but that’s a unit which allowed 34 points or more in 8 of 13 games in 2021. Veteran head coach Mack Brown has brought in the nation’s #1 recruiting class in 2022. Nonetheless, they’ll be hard pressed to reach a bowl game this season and will most likely be much better in the 2nd half of the season if they improve at all. Appalachian State won’t be in awe of facing a Power 5 Conference opponent as they have been there and done that in recent years. However, it will be a rare opportunity to host one of those teams. This is a Mountaineers program which has won 43 games including 3 postseason bowl contests during the past 4 season. They also appeared in 3 Sun Belt Conference Championship games over that stretch while winning 2 of those contests. |
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09-01-22 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh -7 | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (5*) West Virginia went 6-7 last season and returns very little production on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh went 11-3 last season and won the ACC title. The Panthers lost starting quarterback Kenny Pickett who was a 1st round pick by the Steelers and star wide receiver’s Jordan Addison who transferred to USC. However, they still return 16 starters and were able to grab former USC starting quarterback Kedon Slovis in the transfer portal. Pittsburgh has gone a solid 19-9 in their last 28 at home. Any non-conference college football home favorite of 4.0 to 10.0-points (Pittsburgh) playing in an opening game of the season, and they won 10 games or more during the previous year, and they’ve won 22 or fewer of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent (West Virginia) that won 6 or fewer games in the previous season, resulted in those home teams going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive 20.0 points per game and the average line was 8.0. Give me Pittsburgh minus the points. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Georgia vs. Alabama 8:27 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Georgia -2.5 (10*) These teams squared off just 5 weeks ago in the SEC Championship game and Alabama won 41-24 as a 6.0-point underdog. The Crimson Tide offense racked up 536 yards versus the vaunted Georgia defense which included a huge day from Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Young who threw for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns. Despite that convincing win, Alabama is currently a 2.5-point underdog, and the public is betting on Alabama like it’s found money on their doorsteps. Even with that poor performance versus Alabama, Georgia’s defense still ranks #1 nationally in points allowed (9.5 PPG) and #2 in yards allowed (254.4 YPG). This elite stop unit was embarrassed versus Alabama and look for them to come up with a huge effort tonight. The Georgia defense has received a plethora of accolades all season and rightfully so. However, Georgia’s offense has quietly averaged a quite impressive 46.6 points scored, and 486.5 yards gained per game over its last 6 contests. That includes racking up 449 yards in the loss to Alabama. The first time these teams met Georgia entered that contest 12-0 and was 99.9% sure that even with a loss they were going to be in the 4-team College Football Playoffs. Conversely, Alabama didn’t have that same luxury since they already had 1 loss on their regular season resume and it was highly improbable they would be part of the 4-team field as a 2-loss team. As a result, the Crimson Tide played with a far higher degree of urgency and desperation than Georgia displayed. I’m betting on Georgia to turn the table on their SEC rival. Lastly, Georgia has lost their last 7 meetings with Alabama, and yet here they are still a favorite in a National Championship Game. Alabama in this matchup. Bet Georgia minus the small number. |
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01-04-22 | LSU +7.5 v. Kansas State | 20-42 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
LSU vs. Kansas State 9:00 PM ET Game# 285-286 Play On: LSU +7.5 (5*) LSU will be missing several players for various reasons in addition to playing with an interim coaching staff. However, there’s still enough talented players and quality depth for them to make this an extremely close game if not pulling off an outright upset. The Tigers defense showed vast improvement in the final third of their regular season schedule. Specifically speaking, LSU held their last 4 opponents 18.5 points and 299.5 yards gained per game. It’s not like they were facing all creampuffs over that stretch with 3 of those contests coming against #1 Alabama, #8 Ole Miss, and #23 Texas A&M. The Bayou Bengals stop unit will be going against a Kansas State offense that was held under 300 total yards in each of their previous 3 games. Bet LSU plus the points. |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss OVER 55.5 | 21-7 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 37 m | Show | |
Baylor vs. Ole Miss 8:45 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Over 55.5 (5*) This has all the earmarks of an entertaining and high scoring game. I make that statement despite Baylor having gone under in each of their last 4 and Ole Miss going under in 7 straight leading up to this 2022 Sugar Bowl matchup. Nonetheless, it’s important to note, those last 7 Ole Miss contests had an average total of 68.9. Ole Miss has averaged 35.9 points scored and 506.7 yards gained per game this season. The Rebels play at a frantic offensive pace which has seen them average 78 plays per game. This will be the lowest total of the season for Ole Miss with their previous low 58.0 versus Texas A&M. As a matter of fact, 11 of 12 Ole Miss games had a total of 64.5 or greater. Ole Miss has a potential 2022 #1 NFL draft choice in quarterback Matt Corral. All Corral has done this season is throw for 3339 yards and 20 touchdowns this season. Additionally, Corral also ran for an eye-catching 597 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Baylor defense has received much acclaim this season and rightfully so. But their offense has been no slouch while averaging 32.5 points scored and 430.2 yards gained per game. Furthermore, the Bears will be facing a suspect Ole Miss defense which has allowed 428.8 yards per game. Bet this game to go over the total. |
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01-01-22 | Utah +4 v. Ohio State | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
Utah vs. Ohio State 5:00 PM ET Game# 281-282 Play On: Utah +4.0 (10*) Ohio State had the much higher aspirations this season of winning a national championship compared to Utah. Nevertheless, they failed to even reach the Big 10 Championship Game and were dominated in a 42-27 loss to Michigan during their regular season finale. The Buckeyes will be missing their top 2 wide receivers in this contest who combined to score 25 touchdowns and amass just shy of 2000 receiving yards this season. Utah has won its first ever PAC-12 Championship in football and will be making their Rose Bowl debut. There’s no doubt in my mind they’ll have an emotional edge in this game as a result. Not to mention, Utah enters this contest on a 6-game win streak which included a pair of blowout wins over #15 Oregon. All 3 Utah losses this season have come by single-digit margins. Bet Utah plus the points for my “Bowl Game of the Year”. |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame OVER 44.5 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State 1:00 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Over 44.5 (5*) Notre Dame’s defense was terrific during the final stretch of regular season action. However, 6 of their last 7 games were against teams that finished the season with a losing record. The Notre Dame offense has been consistently productive this season. The Fighting Irish have scored 27 points or more in 11 of 12 games this season. The only time they didn’t reach that 27-point barrier occurred in a 24-13 home loss to #4 Cincinnati which occurred way back on 10/2. Oklahoma State is coming off a 21-16 loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game which snapped a 5-game win streak. That contest also stayed under the total of 45.0. Oklahoma State has played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 after going under in their previous 3 games. Those 3 contests ha- an average total of 52.5 and there was a combined 69.3 points scored per game. Here’s a college football totals betting angle which is highly profitable and fits perfectly in this matchup. Any college football (Oklahoma State) that’s playing in January with a total of 42.5 to 49.0, and they won 4 of its last 5 games, resulted in those teams playing 30-5 (85.7%) to the over since 1992. The average total in those 35 contests was 46.6 and there was a combined 56.5 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
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01-01-22 | Kentucky -3 v. Iowa | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
Kentucky vs. Iowa 1:00 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Kentucky -3.0 (5*) Iowa is coming off a humiliating 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big 10 Championship game. As good as Iowa’s record is, the Hawkeyes have failed to record a win versus a current Top 25 team this season. Iowa’s offensive production has left a lot to be desired. The Hawkeyes scored 17 points or fewer in 4 of its last 7 games and they have averaged only 293.7 yards gained per contest this season. This is an intriguing matchup between #25 Kentucky (9-3) and #17 Iowa (10-3). Yet, the lower ranked Kentucky Wildcats are the favorite and I trust the oddsmakers unequivocally more than the pollsters. Kentucky finished the season on a 3-game win streak in which they outscored those opponents by a combined 142-54. Kentucky went 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite of 6.0 or less. The Wildcats will be more excited and ready to play in the New Year’s Day bowl game. Bet Kentucky minus the points. |
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01-01-22 | Arkansas v. Penn State +2.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
Penn State vs. Arkansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Penn State +2.5 (5*) Penn State may be 7-5 but they’re a lot better than their record indicates. All 5 of the Nittany Lions losses came by single digit margins and that includes 4 defeats by 4 points or fewer. Their last 3 losses came against #7 Ohio State (10-2) by 9, #2 Michigan (12-1) by 3, and #11 Michigan State (11-2) by 3. They also lost to #17 Iowa (10-3). Conversely, Arkansas started the season 4-0 and went just 4-4 in their final 4 games. Arkansas is a run-heavy offense which is verified by 64.7% of their offensive snaps being rushing attempts. They Razorbacks will have their hands full against a Penn State defense that has allowed only 106 yards rushing per game and a mere 3.1 yards per attempt. Bet Penn State plus the points. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 101 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
Georgia vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Georgia -7.5 (10*) Michigan has been a nice story this season in a year that head coach Jim Harbaugh entered on the proverbial hot seat. The former Wolverines quarterback has his team peaking at the right time. Here’s where the issue for me comes in with regards to backing Michigan. The Wolverines have run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays this season and they’ll be facing a Georgia defense which allows just 82.2 rushing yards per game. The Bulldogs stop units is also tied for 4th nationally with 42 sacks. Georgia was embarrassed in their 41-24 SEC Championship Game loss to Alabama. Nevertheless, I’m willing to give them a pass since win or lose they 100% knew a college football playoff invitation awaited. Georgia was a 6.0-point favorite in that defeat. The good news, Georgia is 4-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following a game in which they failed to cover. They won those 4 contests by a substantial average of 39.5 points per game. The Alabama game was the first time all season that Georgia allowed more than 17 points. The Bulldogs defense has received much acclaim this season and rightfully so. But don’t sleep on the Georgia offense which scored 41 points or more in 4 of their last 5 and collected 449 yards or greater on each occasion. Bet Georgia minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama | 6-27 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Cincinnati vs. Alabama 3:30 PM ET Game# 273-24 Play On: Cincinnati +13.5 (5*) I’m among the minority of people who thinks Cincinnati is more than capable of giving Alabama all it can handle in this College Football Playoff Semifinal. Granted, the Crimson Tide routed then #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship game 41-24 while amassing 556 yards of total offense. However, Georgia’s defensive strength is their front 7. Their secondary was exposed against Alabama’s Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young who threw for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns. Young has been off the charts good this season. However, the Cincinnati secondary is amongst the finest in all of college football. The Bearcats ranked #2 nationally in passing yards allowed and has a pair of cornerbacks that will be playing on Sundays in the NFL. Cincinnati has a hidden gem of a quarterback in 4-year starter Desmon Ritter who accounted for a combined 36 touchdowns this season running and passing. Ritter has rushed for over 2000 yards and 25 touchdowns in his college career which brings an added dimension for Alabama’s defense to deal with. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game go right down to the wire and possibly even an outright upset. Nonetheless, I won’t get greedy and take the generous number being afforded to me. Bet Cincinnati plus the points. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Pittsburgh +3.5 (10*) Both teams will be without their top offensive player. Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett is a potential 1st round draft choice who opted out for risk of injury. All Picket did this season was throw for 4319 yards and 42 touchdowns. Michigan State will be without star running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker rushed for 1646 yards and 18 touchdowns this season while averaging a lofty 6.2 yards per carry. It comes down to this for me when handicapping this game. Which difference can make the difference between winning and losing? The answer to this then becomes simple. I unequivocally trust Pitt’s defense more than that of today’s opponent. Pitt is #40 in total defense, #6 in rush defense, and #2 in sacks nationally. Conversely, Michigan State is #117 out of 130 college football FBS teams in total defense and dead last in pass yards allowed. Bet Pittsburgh plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Oregon vs. Oklahoma 9:15 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Oklahoma -6.5 (5*) Both teams lost their head coach following their final regular season game. Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma for the USC job and Oregon’s Mario Cristobal bolted for the Miami Fla. job. I think Oklahoma made a brilliant motivational move by bringing in legendary former Sooners head coach Bob Stoops to take over during this interim period. Besides the loss of Cristobal, Oregon is a shell of the team which we saw upset Ohio State on the road earlies this season and was in the playoff hunt until late in the season. Bet Oklahoma minus the points. |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Clemson | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Iowa State vs. Clemson 5:45 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Iowa State +2.5 (10*) #19 Clemson (9-3) and enters this Cheez-It Bowl on a 5-game win streak. Yet, they’re less than a field goal favorite versus unranked Iowa State (7-5). That’s all I need to know and especially considering that Iowa State opened as a favorite in this matchup. Iowa State will be without star running back Breece Hall who opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. However, they still have 4-year starting quarterback Brock Purdy who will be playing his final game in a Cyclones uniform. Bet on Iowa State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-29-21 | Maryland -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | 54-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech vs. Maryland 2:15 PM ET Game# 249-250 Play On: Maryland -3.5 (5*) Virginia Tech has lost numerous players via the transfer portal or opting out to prepare for the NFL draft. They will also have to reach way down the depth chart at quarterback after their starter entered the transfer portal and the backup is unavailable as well. Additionally, the Hokies will be playing with an interim head coach due to Justin Fuentes getting fired late in the year and their entire coaching staff is operating in lame duck status. The Hokies finished the season with an upset win over Virginia. However, Virginia Tech has gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 games this season immediately following a loss. Maryland started the season 4-0 and then last 6 of its next 7 games before defeating Rutgers in their last contest to become bowl eligible at 6-6. The Terrapins aren’t very good defensively, but they did score 31 points or more in 7 of its last 8 games, and they’re #14 nationally in passing yards at 307.1 per game. Bet Maryland minus the points. |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia +5.5 v. Minnesota | 6-18 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
West Virginia vs. Minnesota 10:15 PM ET Game# 245-246 Play On: West Virginia +5.5 (5*) This line makes no sense. Minnesota is 8-4 and less than a touchdown favorite versus a 5-6 West Virginia team who went 2-6 versus teams playing in a bowl game. The Mountaineers enter this Guaranteed Rate Bowl game with some momentum after winning their final 2 regular season contest and surprisingly ending up in a bowl game despite their losing record. You can make a strong case that West Virginia will be far more motivated to play in this bowl game than Minnesota will be. Bet West Virginia plus the points. |
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12-28-21 | Louisville +1.5 v. Air Force | 28-31 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Air Force vs. Louisville 3:15 PM ET Game# 239-240 Play On: Louisville +1.5 (5*) Louisville has played a much tougher regular season schedule than Air Force has and that will pay dividends in this matchup. The oddsmakers and sportsbooks see this as an even matchup despite Louisville being 6-6 and Air Force at 9-3. Those season record disparities and this current line can mislead the novice sports bettors out there. Thankfully, I’m not in that category. Bet on Louisville. |
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12-28-21 | Houston v. Auburn -120 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
Houston vs. Auburn 12:00 PM ET Game# 237-238 Play On: Auburn -120 (10*) This line makes no sense whatsoever. Whenever this scenario occurs my antennas go up and usually results in me identifying a trap play. This is exactly what I deem this to be. Houston enters this Birmingham Bowl matchup with a superb 11-2 record and #21 national ranking. Yet they’re the underdog versus an Auburn team that’s 6-6 and has lost 4 straight games. If there was a silver lining during this current Auburn tailspin, it’s they took #1 Alabama to double overtime before losing by 2. Auburn has unequivocally played the tougher scheduled compared to Houston, and this bowl game is being played in their home state of Alabama. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the ranked underdog in this contest. My answer to them is no thank you. Bet Auburn on the money line for a Top Play wager. |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +3 | 27-14 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
North Texas vs. Miami-Ohio 3:30 PM ET Game# 291-292 Play On: North Texas +3.0 (5*) Somehow the MAC has 7 teams invited to bowl games and that includes Miami-Ohio who went just 5-6 this season. The early results haven’t been very good as MAC teams are 0-4 thus far. Miami posted just 1 win all season versus an opponent with a winning record. They lost their regular season finale 48-47 to Kent State in a game they allowed 303 yards rushing. That’s not a good sign in regards to this Frisco Football Classic matchup against an opponent in North Texas that has rushed for 321 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 contests. North Texas started the season 1-6 but then finished 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 while winning by a sizable margin of 19.6 points per game. It must be noted, North Texas routed nationally ranked UTSA in their regular season finale 45-23 in a game the Roadrunners entered with a perfect 11-0 record. Bet North Texas plus the points. |
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12-22-21 | Missouri +7 v. Army | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Missouri vs. Army 8:00 PM ET Game# 225-226 Play On: Missouri +7.0 (5*) Public betting trends have heavily sided with Army since the opening line for this Armed Forces Bowl matchup has been dropped. As a matter of fact, Army has gone from an opening 3.0-point favorite to as high as 7.0 at the time of this writing. Part of the reason for this huge line move is that Missouri will be without star running back Tyler Badie who accounted for for 1934 total yards from scrimmage and scored 18 touchdowns this season. Brady Cook has been named the starter at quarterback for Missouri which is a bit of a surprise when considering his limited experience. However, since arriving on campus last season Cook has gone 25-31 passing for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns versus 0 interceptions. Missouri is a balanced offensive team that averages 36 runs and 35 passes per game. Missouri is an uninspiring 6-6 heading into the bowl season. Nevertheless, 4 of their 6 wins came over bowl participants and their regular season schedule saw them face 10 of 12 opponents that will be playing in postseason games. Army is a deceiving 8-4 when considering 1 of their wins came against Bucknell that plays at the FCS level in addition to victories over Massachusetts and Connecticut who are arguably the worst FBS programs in college football. Army is also coming off an upset loss to bitter rival Navy (4-8) 17-13 in a game their potent rushing attack was held to 124 yards which is 154 yards below its season average. The similarity between Navy and Missouri is both played a much tougher slate than the Black Knights. Bet Missouri plus the points. |
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12-18-21 | Marshall +4.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 21-36 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
Marshall vs. UL-Lafayette 9:15 PM ET Game# 217-218 Play On: Marshall +4.5 (5*) We have #16 UL-Lafayette who has won 12 straight games since losing their season opener at Texas as just a 4.0-point favorite versus a 7-5 Marshall team from Conference USA. This game has trap written all over it as they’re pleading with you to take the ranked favorite at an inviting number over an opponent who’s mediocre on paper. Not to mention, this game is being played in New Orleans, Louisiana. If it smells like a rat, looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. Give me Marshall plus the points. |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
Oregon State @ Utah State 7:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oregon State -7.0 (10*) Utah State crushed San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game 46-13 in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. The Aggies enter this Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl having won 7 of their last 8 yet find themselves as a touchdown underdog versus a 7-5 Oregon State team. This is one of those situations where I trust the oddsmakers ability to set an accurate line more than what may appear to be obvious underdog betting value. As opposed to most Power 5 Conference teams playing opponents from the Group of 6 Conferences, Oregon State is delighted to be playing in a bowl game and will be plenty motivated. Especially when considering that Oregon State went a dismal 10-32 during the previous 4 seasons. Bet Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-18-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Liberty -9.5 | 20-56 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty 5:45 PM ET Game# 213-214 Play On: Liberty -9.5 (5*) The Liberty Flames are coming off a disappointing 7-5 season which included finishing regular season play 0-3 SU&ATS. Nevertheless, they find themselves as a sizable favorite against an Eastern Michigan team that sports an identical 7-5 record. It must be noted, those last 3 losses by Liberty came to #8 Ole Miss (10-2), #16 UL-Lafayette (12-1) and Army (8-4). The Flames also own 4 wins over teams participating in bowl games. Liberty has outgained their opponents by 112.7 yards per game this season. Conversely, Eastern Michigan has been outgained by 49.4 yards per contest. Bet on Liberty minus the points. |
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12-18-21 | UAB +7 v. BYU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
UAB vs. BYU 3:30 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: UAB +7.0 (5*) This line makes no sense to me. BYU is ranked #12 in the country with a stellar 10-2 record. They have quality wins over #10 Utah, Mountain West Conference Champion Utah State, in addition to bowl teams Arizona State, Washington State, and Virginia. Additionally, BYU finished regular season action on a 5-game win streak. Yet here they are playing in the low-profile Independence Bowl against a team from Conference USA with an 8-4 season record. There’s no doubt in my mind that UAB will be more motivated to be playing BYU than visa-versa. When it comes to minor bowl games motivation is a key handicapping component to consider. UAB has unequivocally faced the weaker schedule of these 2 teams. However, they did give #24 UTSA (12-1) all they can handle in a 34-31 road loss in a game they outgained the Roadrunners 474-375. Bet UAB plus the points. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois 6:00 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Coastal Carolina -10.5 (10*) Northern Illinois is the MAC Champion that comes into this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando Florida with a 9-4 record. However, they allowed 40 points or more in each of their 4 losses and were outgained by an average of 26.1 yards per game. Conversely, Coastal Carolina averaged 40.4 points scored per game and outgained their opponents by an average of 166.3 yards per contest. They will be facing a Northern Illinois defense that’s allowed 32.7 points per game this season. Since the start of last season, Coastal Carolina has gone a dominating 8-0 SU&ATS when facing an opponent that allows 31.0 or more points per game and they won by a decisive margin of 20.7 points per contest. Lastly, although Coastal Carolina didn’t reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game despite an outstanding 10-2 record, their 2 losses came by just a combined 5 points. They were that close to going undefeated. Bet Coastal Carolina minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7 v. Army | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
Navy vs. Army 3:00 PM ET Game# 103-104 Play On: Navy +7.0 (5*) Don’t be misled by the disparity in the 2 team’s records. Navy is 3-8 and Army is 8-3. However, Navy has far and away played the tougher schedule. The Midshipmen have gone up against #4 Cincinnati, #5 Notre Dame, and #21 Houston. The only lopsided loss out of the 3 came at Notre Dame 34-6. The other 2 games saw the Middies cover each in a 28-20 loss at Houston as a 20-point underdog and a 27-20 loss Cincinnati as a 29.0-point dog. The only ranked opponent that Army faced this season was #20 Wake Forest and they suffered a 70-56 loss in that contest. The Black Knights allowed Wake Forest to rack up 638 yards of total defense and were outclassed from the start. This contest goes right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see an outright upset. Nevertheless, I won’t get greedy and take the number being given to me. Bet Navy plus the points. |
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12-04-21 | Iowa v. Michigan -10.5 | Top | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
Iowa vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Michigan -10.5 (10*) Give a lot of credit to Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz and his staff for getting Iowa to the Big 12 Championship game despite some glaring offensive weaknesses. Case in point, the Hawkeyes averaged just 20.7 points per game in their final 7 Big 10 Conference games. Unquestionably the Hawkeyes defense has been the catalyst to a successful 10-2 regular season campaign. Nonetheless, Michigan’s defense has been superb as well. The Wolverines are #14 nationally in total defense and #8 in scoring while allowing only 17.2 points per contest. Conversely, Iowa is 123rd out of 130 Division 1 teams in total offense at only 299.3 yards per game. The defenses comparisons are a wash since both units are elite. The telling difference in us covering this spread will be Michigan’s offense which is #20 nationally in total yards. The Wolverines offense is especially difficult to defend since their yards gained between run and pass are almost identical. Bet Michigan minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | 21-45 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 26 m | Show | |
Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ET Game# 319-320 Play On: Wake Forest +3.5 (5*) This is an intriguing matchup just from the standpoint that we have a ACC Championship Game without Clemson for a first time in 7 years. No other team besides Clemson has won an ACC title since Florida State did it in 2014. The Panthers are 10-2 with a pair of head scratching home losses to Western Michigan and Miami. Pittsburgh is #6 nationally in run defense. However, teams have had success throwing the ball against the Pitt defense. Pitt ranks #113 out of 130 Division 1 teams in pass defense at 261.1 yards allowed per game in the air. They will be facing a Wake Forest passing attack that averages 315.5 yards passing per game which is 11th best nationally. The Demon Deacons defense does give up plenty of yards, but they have forced 27 turnovers this season, and are #4 nationally in turnover margin at +12.0. Look for to win the turnover battle and that being a key contributing factor to us getting the cover. Additionally, this contest will be played in the backyard of Wake Forest at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. Bet Wake Forest plus the points. |
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12-04-21 | Houston v. Cincinnati -10 | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
Houston @ Cincinnati 4:00 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Cincinnati -10.0 (5*) Cincinnati has been arguably the most criticized 12-0 in college football history. Their detractors are quick to point out their inferior schedule compared to those of Power 5 Conference schools. Yet, they handed #6 Notre Dame their lone loss of the season and did so in South Bend. They are currently #4 in the college football playoff rankings. It would seem they just need to beat #21 Houston who enters Saturday’s conference title game on an 11-game win streak for a berth in the college football playoffs. However, I am not convinced that just a win will be all it takes to stay in the Top 4. A convincing win is what’s needed to solidify their spot within the Top 4, and I truly believe the Bearcats will be able to produce just that. Bet Cincinnati minus the points. |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
Georgia vs. Alabama 4:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Alabama +6.5 (5*) Georgia hasn’t truly been tested since their season opening 10-3 win over Clemson. They won their other 11 games by 17 points or more. From a statistical standpoint, Georgia is far and away the best defensive team in the country. They’ve allowed a mere 6.9 points and 230.9 yards per game this season. However, they haven’t faced as talented an offense as the one they’ll face on Saturday. The Crimson Tide averages 42.7 points and 491.6 yards per game. Alabama has passed for over 300 yards in each of its last 7 games The Alabama defense doesn’t have the dominating statistics that Georgia does. Nonetheless, they are #7 nationally in total defense while allowing just 292.5 yards per game, #3 against the run, #3 in sacks with 43, and #11 on 3rd downs. This will be the first time since 10/3/2015 that Alabama is installed as an underdog. Ironically enough, they were a 1.5-point road underdog at Georgia on that day and walked away with a decisive 38-10 win. Bet Alabama plus the points. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State -2.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 16-24 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
Appalachian State @ UL-Lafayette 3:30 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Appalachian State -2.5 (10*) UL-Lafayette has won 11 straight games since their season opening loss at Texas. One of those 11 wins was a 41-13 home rout of Appalachian State. There was nothing lucky about that win as they outgained their bitter Sun Belt Conference rivals by a decided margin of 455-211. Yet here they are as a 3.0-point home underdog at the time of this writing. When it comes to sports betting, it’s rarely as easy as it may appear. This is a textbook example of such. Since that disappointing loss to UL-Lafayette, Appalachian State has won 6 straight games and covered 5 of those contests with an average victory margin of 25.7 points per game. The Mountaineers will not only be playing with same season revenge on Saturday, they’ll also be out to atone for a 24-21 home loss to UL-Lafayette in last season’s Sun Belt Championship Games. Bet on Appalachian State minus the points. |
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12-04-21 | Kent State v. Northern Illinois OVER 74.5 | 23-41 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
Kent State vs. Northern Illinois 12:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Over 74.5 (5*) There will be no weather conditions to factor in since this game will be played indoors at Ford Field in Detroit. These teams have made it to the MAC Championship game and by no means can it be attributed to their defensive prowess. Neither defense is anything close to championship caliber. Northern Illinois finished the regular season by playing 5-1 to the over in their last 6 and there was a combined average of 72.0 points scored per game. The Huskies are coming off a 42-21 loss to Western Michigan in their regular season finale in a game their defense surrendered 636 yards. It marked the 2nd time in 4 games that the Huskies defense allowed 600 plus yards and 3rd time in 5 contests opposing offenses cracked the 500-yard barrier. The Huskies finished 6-2 in conference play. One of those losses came at Kent State 52-47 in a game that combined for 1345 yards or total offense and both teams amassing 600 plus yards. Kent State is coming off a thrilling 48-47 win over Miami-Ohio in their regular season finale in a contest that had a combined 1191 yards of total offense. Since the start of last season, Kent State has played 8-0 to the over following a conference win and there was a cumulative 95.0 points scored per game. That isn’t a typo, it’s truly 95.0 points scored per outing. That last result also marked the 5th time in 7 games that Kent State went over the total, and there was a combined 79.7 points scored per contest. As a matter of fact, 4 of those contests produced 84 points or more. This has all the earmarks of an an extremely high scoring and entertaining game. Don’t let the large number scare you away. Bet this game to go over the total. |
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12-04-21 | Baylor +5.5 v. Oklahoma State | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State 12:00 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Baylor +5.5 (5*) Baylor enters this Big 12 Championship Game with an outstanding 10-2 record. One of those 2 losses came at Oklahoma State earlier this season. The Bears were held to a season low 14 points scored and 280 yards of total offense in that defeat but still only lost by 10. Oklahoma State is coming off arguably the most successful regular season in program history. They finished 11-1, defeated arch nemesis Oklahoma 37-33 in its previous game, and are lurking at #5 in the most recent college football rankings. Despite having a lot to still play for including a playoff berth and an opportunity to win a national championship, I firmly believe that they won’t be at their sharpest on Saturday. After all, they already defeated Baylor this season, and are coming off an intense and emotional game against their despised in state rival. Bet Baylor plus the points. |
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12-03-21 | Oregon +3 v. Utah | 10-38 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Utah vs. Oregon 8:00 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Oregon +3.0 (5*) Oregon is less than 2 weeks removed from being crushed at Utah 38-7. That defeat crushed their college football playoff aspirations. Nevertheless, it must be noted, that underdogs playing with revenge in the postseason have been a huge money-maker. Since 2008, those underdogs went 19-7 (73%) ATS and won 16 of those contests straight up. I like Oregon to bounce back tonight in a big way. Bet Oregon plus the points. |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -4 | 33-37 | Push | 0 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State 7:30 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: Oklahoma State -4.0 (10*) Oklahoma State has gone winless in their last 6 versus Oklahoma and failed to cover on 5 of those occasions. Yet, the sportsbooks are unfazed by those head-to-head results with Oklahoma State opening as a 3.5-point favorite in this contest. Their defense has been sensational this season and a major reason for their 10-1 record in addition to being ranked #7 by the college football playoff committee. The Cowboys are allowing 14.9 points and 251.6 yards per game this season. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 while outscoring their opponents by a cumulative score of 165-23 and allowed a mere 137.8 yards per game. Comparatively, Oklahoma has permitted opponents to average 432.0 yards of total offense per game over its last 7 contests. Bet Oklahoma State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-27-21 | Pittsburgh -12.5 v. Syracuse | 31-14 | Win | 105 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse 7:30 PM ET Game# 157-158 Play On: Pittsburgh -12.5 (5*) Syracuse has run the ball on 63.3% of their offensive plays this season. Furthermore, 61.1% of their offense yards gained have come via their running game. Those numbers are even more lopsided over their last 3 games where 69.1% of their offensive plays were runs and 77.2% of their yards gained came via their rushing attacks. Syracuse has passed for 66 yards or fewer in each of those previous 3 games. Those types of offensive splits resemble that of a service academy. That will be problematic when facing a Pittsburgh team that’s #7 nationally in stopping the run while allowing only 98.8 yards per game. On the other hand, the Panthers offense has averaged 44.0 points scored and 528.7 yards gained per game throughout its last 3 contests. The Pitt offense led by star senior quarterback Kenny Pickett will be facing a Syracuse defense which has failed to force a turnover in 5 straight games. Bet Pittsburgh minus the points. |
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11-27-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon -6.5 | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
Oregon State @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Oregon -6.5 (5*) Oregon will be in a sour mood after last Saturday’s embarrassing 38-7 loss at Utah which knocked them out of the college football playoff picture. Now they take on in state rival Oregon state that’s enjoying an inspiring 7-4 season to this point. However, the Beavers are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road which included being upset by California 4-6 and Colorado 4-8. Oregon will also be playing with revenge after being upset 41-38 by their bitter rival last season in a game they closed as a 13.0-point road favorite. Oregon is a perfect 6-0 at home this season. Bet Oregon minus the points. |
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11-27-21 | Penn State -3 v. Michigan State | 27-30 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Michigan State 3:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: Penn State -3.0 (5*) This line makes no sense to me. Penn State started the season 5-0 and since that time has gone 2-4. The Nittany Lions are unranked, yet they find themselves as a small favorite versus a 9-2 Michigan State team that’s ranked #12 in the most recent college football playoff rankings. The Spartans were also shellacked last Saturday 56-7 at Ohio State. The Michigan State defense has been shaky all season and over their last 4 games that’s become painfully apparent to Michigan State backers. During that stretch the Spartans allowed 37.5 points and 563.0 yards per game. The other puzzling part of this current point-spread is the fact that Michigan State is a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season while outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points per game. Penn State is just 2-2 SU on the road, but they covered 3 of those contests. Additionally, their only 2 road losses came at #7 Iowa (10-2) by 3 and #2 Ohio State by 9. The Nittany Lions also own a road win over #18 Wisconsin. They’re begging you to take the home underdog. I am not taking the bait. Bet Penn State minus the points. |
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11-27-21 | Charlotte v. Old Dominion -9.5 | 34-56 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ Old Dominion 2:00 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: Old Dominion -9.5 (5*) These teams have identical 5-6 records, but Old Dominion has clearly bee the better team in this latter part of regular season action. Charlotte started the year 4-2 but since then has gone 1-4 SU&ATS. Conversely, Old Dominion started the season 1-5 and has gone 4-0 SU&ATS since. All 5 losses sustained by ODU all came against teams that currently have a winning record. Throughout their previous 3 games, Charlotte allowed an average of 38.3 points and 520 yards per game. On the other hand, the ODU offense is playing its most productive football of the season during its last 3 contests while averaging 33.7 points scored and 451.0 yards gained per game. Bet on Old Dominion minus the points. |
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11-27-21 | Miami-OH v. Kent State +1.5 | 47-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Miami-Ohio @ Kent State 12:00 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: Kent State +1.5 (5*) Miami has won 4 of their last 5 games. Nonetheless, the fact remains that they are a dismal 1-5 SU on the road. Kent State is 4-0 SU and 3-1 at home and outscored their opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Golden Flashes are average 46.0 points scored and 602.3 yards gained per game at home. Kent State is coming off a 38-0 win at Akron in their previous game. That win improved their season record to 6-5. Any college football team that’s coming off a conference road win by 35 points or more, and they possess a winning record, resulted in those home teams going 48-8 SU (85.7%) since 2017. Considering what the point-spread is in this contest, this college football straight up betting angle takes on added significance. Bet on Kent State. |
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11-26-21 | Missouri v. Arkansas -14.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
Missouri @ Arkansas 3:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Arkansas -14.5 (5*) Missouri has won its last 2 to improve their season record to 6-5 and become bowl eligible. However, their last 5 wins have all come against teams that currently have a losing record. Missouri is 3-4 in SEC action and allowed 36.3 points and 446.9 yards per game. Conversely, Arkansas is 5-1 at home this season where they average 37.0 points scored and 472.3 yards gained per game. The Razorbacks are coming off a narrow 42-35 loss at #3 Alabama last Saturday. They were able to amass 468 yards against an Alabama defense that’s far better than the one it will face in this matchup. Bet Arkansas minus the points. |
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11-26-21 | Iowa v. Nebraska -114 | 28-21 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Nebraska 1:30 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Nebraska -114 (5*) We have a 3-8 Nebraska team that will be playing with a backup quarterback as a slight favorite over a 9-2 Iowa squad that’s ranked #17 in the latest college football playoff rankings. However, Nebraska may be the best 3-8 team there’s been over the past decade. The Cornhuskers 9 losses have all come by 9 points or fewer. Despite their poor record, Nebraska has averaged outgaining opponents by 92.3 yards per game. That includes 5 losses versus teams that are currently ranked #18 or higher in the most college football playoff rankings. Furthermore, they’re facing an Iowa team that struggles at times offensively to the tune of producing 277 yards or less gained in 4 of its last 5 games. Nebraska will also be playing with big time revenge after having lost their last 6 versus Iowa, and the previous 3 came by a combined 12 points. Bet Nebraska for a money line wager. |
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11-26-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
Kansas State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Texas -3.0 (5*) I always profess to think like a oddsmaker and that will provide you with an edge that most don’t comprehend. This matchup has a Texas team which gone 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 as a small favorite against an opponent in Kansas State who enters their regular season finale with a respectable 7-4 record. It’s rarely that easy in sports betting when things seem so obvious. Besides, Texas has defeated Kansas State in each of the past 4 seasons. Bet Texas minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
Oregon @ Utah 7:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: Utah -3.0 (10*) The #3 Oregon Ducks find themselves as an underdog against #24 Utah and I believe for good reason. After starting 1-2, Utah has won 6 of its last 7. The Utes are also a perfect 4-0 at home where they’ve outscored their opponents by 17.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, they’re 17-1 in their last 18 played in Salt Lake City. The Utes offense has been red-hot while scoring 34 points or more in each of their last 6 games. During that stretch, the Utes have only committed 3 turnovers and gained 455 yards or more in each of those contests. The Oregon offense took a huge hit when star running back C.J. Verdell went down for the season. That will catch up to them in this spot while playing in a hostile environment. Bet Utah minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Baylor v. Kansas State | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Kansas State 5:30 PM ET Game# 413-414 Play On: Kansas State (5*) Baylor is coming off a game in which they knocked off undefeated Oklahoma by a score of 17-7. The Bears were sky high in that contest in front of a raucous home crowd. There’s no way humanly possible that the #11 ranked Bears will be able to match that physical or mental intensity when going on the road versus an unranked opponent. However, it must be note, Kansas State is 7-3 and winners of 4 straight game. Bet on Kansas State. |
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11-20-21 | Nebraska +10 v. Wisconsin | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Nebraska @ Wisconsin 3:30 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Nebraska +10.0 (5*) This is another game where the line doesn’t make sense, and yes, I’m once again taking a contrarian approach. Since starting the season 1-3, Wisconsin has gone a red-hot 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. The latest college football poll has them ranked at #15. Yet, they find themselves as a reasonably sized favorite when considering their opponent is 3-7 and losers of 4 in a row. Nonetheless, you can make a strong case that Nebraska is the best team in the country with a losing record. For example, during their present 4-game losing streak they faced #6 Michigan (9-1), #4 Ohio State (9-1), Purdue (6-4) and Minnesota (6-4). Even with that tough stretch of games versus quality opponents they were only outscored by 6.0 points per contest. As a matter of fact, all 7 of the Cornhuskers losses were 1 possession games. Additionally, head coach Scott Frost received a vote of confidence to return next year. That should also relieve stress for the coaching staff and players alike. Bet Nebraska plus the points. |
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11-20-21 | SMU v. Cincinnati -10 | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
SMU @ Cincinnati 3:30 PM ET Game# 327-328 Play On: Cincinnati -10.0 (5*) Despite being 10-0 and posting a quality win at #7 Notre Dame, if the season were to end today, Cincinnati would be on the outside looking in. The biggest criticism of the Bearcats has been their inability to dominate seemingly weaker teams in their own conference. Well, they’ll have a chance to impress the college football committee on Saturday against an 8-2 SMU team. I believe they’ll be more than up to the task. The Bearcats are 5-0 at home while outscoring opponents by 32.4 points and outgaining them by 168.8 yards per contest. The major weakness for SMU is their defense and that’s especially been the case when facing better than average opponents. The Bearcats unequivocally qualify in that regard. Bet Cincinnati minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -18 | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Ohio State 12:00 PM ET Game# 339-340 Play On: Ohio State -18.0 (5*) We have the #4 team in the country as nearly a 3-touchdown favorite against #7 Michigan State. I am sure this substantial number will produce a lot more tickets and money bet on the underdog. But I’m here to tell you they are wrong. This isn’t a recoding but think like an oddsmaker if you want to be a successful sports bettor. Why is Ohio State such a large favorite against an opponent who is just 3 spots below them in the latest college football playoff rankings? Simply put, because those sharp and astute professionals see Michigan State the same way I do, and that’s an absolute fraud. Regardless of their superb 9-1 record, Michigan State is terrible defensively, and they will be facing a red-hot Ohio State offense that’s #1 nationally in scoring and yards gained. Conversely, Michigan State is #111 in total defense having given up 444.0 yards per game this season. Don’t get suckered into taking the sizable underdog. Lay the points with Ohio State. |
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11-20-21 | Wake Forest v. Clemson -4 | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
Wake Forest @ Clemson 12:00 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Clemson -4.0 (5*) This is another one of those college football betting situations that I love taking a contrarian approach. Wake Forest is 9-1 and ranked #10 in the latest college football poll yet they fin themselves as more than a field goal underdog against an unranked team. The biggest enigma for Wake Forest is their defense. The Demon Deacons has allowed 34 or more points and 500 yards or greater in 5 of its last 6 games. Clemson is enduring an uncharacteristic season in which they never seriously threatened being a national title contender. However, they have won 3 in a row to improve their season record to 7-3. The Tigers defense has been stellar all season. The Tigers are also a perfect 5-0 at home this season and allowed a mere 10.2 points and 248.2 yards per game. They will be up to the task against Wake’s explosive offense. The Tigers offense has struggle for most of this season. On a positive note, Clemson has scored 34.7 points per contest during their current win streak. Bet Clemson minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Oklahoma | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Oklahoma 12:00 PM ET Game# 401-402 Play On: Iowa State +3.5 (5*) Oklahoma is coming off their first loss of the season last week at Baylor. The Sooners have a huge in-state rivalry game up next versus 9-1 Oklahoma State. This sets up as a flat spot for Oklahoma. Iowa State is coming off a 41-38 upset loss to Texas Tech last week. That dropped their season record to 6-4. The Cyclones have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and won by a massive margin of 43.3 points per game. Iowa State will also be out to revenge their 27-21 loss to Oklahoma in last season’s Big 12 Championship game. Bet Iowa State plus the points. |
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11-16-21 | Toledo v. Ohio +7 | 35-23 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Ohio 7:00 ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Ohio +7.0 (5*) Toledo is coming off a 49-17 win over arguably the MAC’s worst team Bowling Green. The Rockets have been the model of inconsistency this season evidenced by a 1-3 record following a win. Their only win in that sequence came over a 1-9 Massachusetts team whose lone victory came over Connecticut team that’s gone 0-7 versus FBS teams. Toledo has gone over the total in each of their previous 2 games. Since 2019, the Rockets are 0-6 ATS following 2 consecutive games going over the total and were outscored by an average of 13.5 points per contest. Ohio started the season 0-4 SU&ATS and the cumulative score was 141-55. However, we must keep in mind that long time head coach Frank Solich abruptly decided to retire just before summer camp which caused some instability heading into the season. Since that time, Ohio is 5-1 ATS and 3-3 SU with all coming versus MAC opponents. As a matter of fact, their 3 conference losses have come by a combined 11 points. The Bobcats are coming off 2 consecutive SU wins as an underdog over Eastern Michigan and Miami-Ohio. They rushed for 178.3 yards per game during those 2 victories in addition to averaging a robust 8.8 yards per passing attempt. Bet Ohio plus the points. |
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11-13-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -3 | 21-23 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
Nevada @ San Diego 10:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: San Diego State -3.0 (5*) When it comes purely to my eye test, I believe Nevada is the better team in this matchup. However, when talking about a betting situation, I firmly believe the #22 San Diego State Aztecs (8-1) are the right side on Saturday. Additionally, there’s been a huge line move on this contest and for no apparent reason other than extremely sharp money being wagered on San Diego State. It’s never a bad idea to follow a sharp money move of this magnitude. Bet San Diego State minus the points. |
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11-13-21 | NC State +2 v. Wake Forest | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
NC State @ Wake Forest 7:30 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: NC State +2.0 (5*) Wake Forest is coming off a gut wrenching 58-55 loss at North Carolina last week in a game they led by 14 heading into the 4th quarter. That resulted in the Demon Deacons first loss of the season and put to rest any possible way of reaching the college football playoffs. I will go out on a limb and say the emotional toll taken from that defeat will carry over to this week. Couple that with them facing #16 NC State (7-2) and it doesn’t present a favorable betting situation for the small home favorite. The Wake Forest offense is undeniably an explosive group. Nonetheless, this will be unequivocally the best defense they’ve faced all season. The Wolfpack stop unit has allowed 14 points or fewer in 5 of their 9 games. Bet on NC State plus the small number. |
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11-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +2.5 | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET Game# 195-196 Play On: Ole Miss +2.5 (5*) Both teams enter this contest nationally ranked and with identical 7-2 overall records. Nevertheless, home field advantage will be key to us covering this contest. Ole Miss has gone 5-0 at home this season and outscored their opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game. During those home contests, Ole Miss has averaged 45.0 points and 575.6 yards per game. Ole Miss is an impressive +11 in turnover margin and has committed only 5 giveaways in 9 games played. The Rebels just don’t beat themselves. Bet Ole Miss plus the points. |
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11-13-21 | Purdue v. Ohio State -20.5 | Top | 31-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
Purdue @ Ohio State 3:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Ohio State -20.5 (10*) Purdue is coming off last week’s shocking 40-29 upset win over then #3 Michigan State. The Boilermakers also pulled off a similar type upset earlier this season over then #2 and undefeated Iowa. Nevertheless. They enter this game against the #4 Buckeyes as a 3-touchdown underdog. Purdue has been solid defensively this season. However, they will have their hands full against a balanced Ohio State offense that is averaging 44.9 points and 541.8 yards per game. The Buckeyes will make a statement in this one against #19 Purdue and solidify their position within the top 4 college football playoff spots. Bet Ohio State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +5.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
Oklahoma @ Baylor 12:00 PM ET Game# 149-150 Play On: Baylor +5.5 (5*) The mighty Oklahoma Sooners are unbeaten at 9-0, yet the college football playoff committee has them ranked #8 going into this week, and with five 1 loss teams ranked ahead of them. They don’t think the Sooners are as good as their record indicates and neither do I. They will have their hands full at #13 Baylor (7-2) on Saturday. The Bears have gone a perfect 5-0 at home this season which includes quality wins over Iowa State, Texas, and BYU who were all ranked in the Top 25 for a large portion of this season before dropping out. Bet Baylor plus the points. |
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11-13-21 | East Carolina +5.5 v. Memphis | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
East Carolina @ Memphis 12:00 ET Game# 173-174 Play On: East Carolina +5.5 (5*) I love this spot for the underdog Pirates. Memphis is coming off a huge 28-25 home win over SMU. I'm looking for this to be a flat spot for the Tigers. East Carolina is coming off a 45-3 blowout win over Temple. That’s the same Temple team that beat Memphis just a few weeks back. With that victory, East Carolina has gone a solid 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS over their previous 7 games. That’s the same South Carolina team that routed Florida 40-16 last Saturday. Bet East Carolina plus the points. |
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11-13-21 | Mississippi State +5.5 v. Auburn | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
Mississippi State @ Auburn 12:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Mississippi State +5.5 (5*) Mississippi is a deceiving 5-4 this season when considering they suffered 3 of those losses by 3 points or fewer. With a little bit of lick the Bulldogs could very easily have been 8-1 at this point. Mississippi State has posted quality wins over #11 Texas A&M (7-2), # 16 NC State (7-2), and Kentucky (6-3). Mississippi State is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road this season while their defense held opponents to just 272.8 yards per game. Mississippi State has a yards per game differential of +120.3 this season while Auburn comes in at -43.2. That’s a huge +163.5-yard difference and especially when considering it favors the underdog. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh OVER 72 | 23-30 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh 7:30 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Over 72.0 (5*) This game features 2 of the most potent offensive teams in the country. The starting quarterbacks Sam Howell of North Carolina and Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh are top NFL prospects and for good reason. Both have put up gaudy numbers this season regardless of the competition. North Carolina ranks #111 out of 130 teams when it comes to scoring defense. As a matter of fact, during their previous 3 contests, North Carolina has allowed 47.0 points and 519.7 yards per game. They Tar Heels defense will have the unenviable task of facing the #1 scoring team in the nation in Pitt who averages 45.0 points per game. Conversely, North Carolina is #9 in yards gained and #11 in points scored per game. Both team's offenses like to go at a lightning quick pace with North Carolina averaging 71 plays and Pitt an enormous 79 snaps per game. Pittsburgh has gone over the total in their previous 2 games. Since Pat Narduzzi became head coach at Pitt, the Panthers have played 17-3 (85%) to the over after their previous 2 games each went over, and there was a combined average of 70.3 points scored per contest. Since Mac Brown began his 2nd tenure as head coach at North Carolina, his Tar Heels have played 6-0 to the over in road games versus opponents with a winning record. Those contests averaged a combined 74.5 points scored per game. Fasten your seat belts for a wildly entertaining and high scoring affair. Bet this contest over the total. |
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11-10-21 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois +2.5 | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Ball State @ Northern Illinois 7:00 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Northern Illinois +2.5 (5*) It’s never a bad thing when your head coach signs a contract extension a day before a game. That’s exactly what happened with Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock just yesterday. This certainly brings a sense of security and positivity to the coaching staff and players. By, the way, after going 0-6 last season in a pandemic shortened campaign, Northern Illinois enters this week leading the MAC West Division with a 4-1 record and is 6-3 overall. Besides their stellar conference record, Northern Illinois pulled off an upset win in their season opener at Georgia Tech and did so as a 19.0-point underdog. Ball State narrowly escaped with a 31-25 win at Akron and didn’t come close to covering as a 20.0-point favorite. Bet Northern Illinois plus the small number. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Arkansas 4:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Arkansas -4.0 (10*) Mississippi State is coming off last Saturday’s home win over nationally ranked Kentucky. That victory was key in the Bulldogs being ranked #17 in the first college football playoff poll. Yet they’re an underdog against an Arkansas team that failed to crack the Top 25 in that very same poll, and with an identical 5-3 record as they possess. Arkansas is also coming off a bye week which is always an advantage when facing an unrested opponent at this point of the season. Both teams defenses are solid. Mississippi State has passed on an enormous 72.4% of their offensive snaps this season. Conversely, Arkansas has run the ball on 65.7% of their offensive snaps this season. However, the Razorbacks still average over 200 passing yards per game and extremely impressive 9.0 yards per pass attempt. The defenses will cancel each other out, Arkansas is unequivocally the more balanced offensive team. That will be the key to us attaining a successful cover. Bet Arkansas minus the points for my SEC Game of the Year. |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Purdue +3.0 (5*) Why is the #3 ranked team in the latest college football poll Michigan State (8-0) only a 3-point favorite at unranked Purdue? I’ll tell you why, because like myself the oddsmakers don’t believe Michigan State is as good as their record and current ranking indicates. Besides, I can’t imagine that the Spartans can come close to matching the level of intensity they displayed at home last week against bitter rival and still #7 ranked Michigan. Furthermore, Michigan State needed to overcome a sizable 16-point 2nd half deficit on their way to a 37-33 win. Purdue is coming off last week’s 28-23 win at Nebraska which leaves them 1 win away from bowl eligibility. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Purdue pull off an outright upset in this spot. Nevertheless, let’s not get greedy and take the points being given to us. Bet Purdue plus the points. |
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11-06-21 | Wake Forest v. North Carolina -133 | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
Wake Forest @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 339-340 Play On: North Carolina -133 (5*) Here we have the #9 team in the latest College Football Playoff Poll who is sporting a perfect 8-0 record, and they’re an underdog versus a perceived mediocre 4-4 opponent. This appears to be a monumental trap that I’m falling for. Furthermore, even with their unbeaten record, Wake Forest has allowed an alarmingly high 36.7 points and 538.3 yards per game during 3 road contests. North Carolina entered this year ranked #10 in the AP Preseason Poll. Obviously, the Tar Heels have vastly underachieved thus far. What better way to atone from being a major disappointment than to upset a nationally ranked Top 10 opponent who is also an in-state rival. A majority of North Carolina’s struggles this season have come on the road. The Tar Heels are 4-1 at home while averaging 45.2 points scored and 515.2 yards gained per contest. North Carolina is coming off a hard fought 44-34 loss at Notre Dame last week. The good news is they’re 3-0 SU this season following a loss and averaged 54.3 points scored per game. Bet on North Carolina as a money line wager. |
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11-06-21 | SMU v. Memphis +5 | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
SMU @ Memphis 12:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Memphis +5.0 (5*) SMU is coming off their first loss of the season 44-37 at Houston. SMU is a quick tempo high scoring team. In any event, the Mustangs are vulnerable defensively and that equation has been a familiar theme during recent seasons. Their defensive ineptness places an inordinate amount of pressure on its offense to be near perfect on a weekly basis. It’s extremely difficult for a team like SMU subscribing to that formula without slipping up on 2-3 occasions over the course of a season. Memphis hasn’t played up to their standards this season, and as a result, the Tigers are currently 4-4. Nonetheless, they are 3-1 at home with their lone loss coming against #16 UTSA (8-0), and even then it came by a slim 3-point margin. As a matter of fact, Memphis has gone an outstanding 30-2 SU in their last 32 at home which includes 6-0 ATS as an underdog with 5 of those resulting in SU wins. Memphis is also 18-1 in their last 19 conference home games with their lone setback transpiring back in 2018 which was a narrow 1-point loss to then nationally ranked Central Florida. It also should be noted, 3 of the Tigers 4 losses have come by 6 points or fewer. Bet Memphis plus the points. |
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11-06-21 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +15 | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Ohio State @ Nebraska 12:00 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Nebraska +15.0 (5*) Nebraska enters this Big 10 showdown with #5 Ohio State with a disappointing 3-6 record. However, all 6 of those losses have come by 8 points or fewer. That includes losses to #3 Michigan State by 3, #7 Michigan by 3, #8 Oklahoma by 7, and #20 Minnesota by 7. Even more compelling is the fact that they have outgained their 9 opponents by an average of 121.7 yards per game. Additionally, all 3 of Nebraska’s wins have come at home. Despite the disparity in these team’s records, Nebraska is battle tested and more than capable of giving Ohio State all they can handle. Bet Nebraska plus the points. |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College UNDER 48.5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ Boston College 7:30 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Under 48.5 (5*) Boston College enters this week on a 4-game losing streak. During that abysmal losing stretch, Boston College scored 14 points or fewer on each occasion. Boston College has also played 5-0 to the under this season when their total was 56.5 or less, and there was just a combined 36.0 points scored per game. Conversely, Virginia Tech has played 6-0 to the under this season when their total was 47.5 or greater. Those 6 contests had a combined 38.3 points scored per game. I look for this matchup to be an old-fashioned slugfest where the defenses are dominant. Bet on this game to go under the total. |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -8.5 | 52-49 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo 7:00 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Toledo -8.5 (5*) Toledo is a deceiving 4-4 this season. The Rockets suffered 3 of their 4 defeats by 3-points or fewer which included 32-29 at #8 Notre Dame. Toledo is coming off an impressive 34-15 win over Western Michigan and did so as a 1.5-point home underdog. These teams met at Eastern Michigan last season and Toledo walked away with a 45-28 win. Any college football conference home favorite of 3.5 to 11.0 with a win percentage of .444 or better, and they’re coming off a home underdog SU win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent playing with revenge, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive 19.5 points per game. Bet on Toledo minus the points. |
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10-30-21 | Fresno State v. San Diego State | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET Game# 213-214 Play On: Fresno State (Pick/-110) Granted San Diego State is 7-0 and ranked #21 nationally. I still firmly believe that 6-2 Fresno State is the better team in this matchup, and definitively so offensively. Fresno State is battle tested on the road after already winning at UCLA as a double-digit underdog and having taken #7 Oregon down to the wire in a 7-point loss as an 18.0-point underdog. The Aztecs most notable win on their resume was an overtime 2-point home win over Utah and all 7 of its wins have come over currently unranked opponents. This is a Fresno team that averages 35.6 points scored and 479.6 yards gained per game. On the other hand, over their previous 3 contests San Diego State has averaged 23.3 points scored and 268.3 yards gained per game. Bet on Fresno State. |
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10-30-21 | North Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | 34-44 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Game# 209-210 Play On: North Carolina +3.5 (10*) Notre Dame is coming last Saturday 31-16 win over USC, and they covered as a 7.5-point home favorite. That victory improved their season record to 6-1. Nonetheless, 3 of their 6 wins came by exactly 3 points. Conversely, North Carolina is coming off a 45-42 home win over Miami Fla. This sets up an outstanding college football betting angle which is displayed below. Any college football underdog of 3.5 or less (North Carolina) that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 48 or less, versus an opponent (North Carolina) coming off a home favorite ATS win, and they have at least 1 loss on the season, resulted in those small away underdogs going 25-1 ATS (96.1%) since 2006 and they won 24 of those 26 contests straight up. Bet on North Carolina plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-30-21 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State -114 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ Mississippi State 7:00 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: Mississippi State -114 Mississippi State has won their last 5 at home versus Kentucky and outscored them by an average of 18.4 points per game. The Bulldogs are coming off last Saturday’s 45-6 blowout win at Vanderbilt which improved their season record to 4-3. Yet, the oddsmakers deem this to be an even matchup despite Kentucky being 6-1 and ranked #12 nationally. Kentucky’s first loss occurred last week at #1 Georgia 30-13. Any college football conference home team (Mississippi State) that’s coming off a conference away win by 16 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .250 or better, versus an opponent (Kentucky) coming off a conference away loss, resulted in those home teams going 31-4 straight up since 2017. Furthermore, if those opponents had a win percentage of .600 or better the straight up betting angle improves to 10-0 with an average victory margin of 21.4 points per game. Bet Mississippi State on the money line. |
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10-30-21 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech -4 | 26-17 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech 12:00 PM ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Georgia Tech -4.0 (5*) Virginia Tech has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and all those took place at home. You can give them an excuse in losses versus #11 and #17 Pittsburgh who have a combined record of 12-2 this season. But last week’s 41-36 loss to Syracuse in a game they blew a 9-point lead with less than 3 minutes to play was of the gut-wrenching variety. During this 3-game losing streak, the Hokies have allowed 33.7 points and 450.0 yards per game. Georgia Tech is coming last Saturday’s 48-40 loss at Virginia. Nevertheless, they have gone a perfect 3-0 this season following a loss and won by 18.3 points per contest. The Yellowjackets offense has shown vast improvement throughout their previous 3 contests while amassing 30.7 points scored and 480.7 yards gained per game. Bet Georgia Tech minus the points. |
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10-30-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -3 | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Wisconsin 12:00 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Wisconsin -3.0 (5*) So let me make sure I get this right. We have an Iowa team that’s coming off a home upset 24-7 loss to Purdue at which time they were ranked #2, playing with a week of rest, and finds themselves as an underdog versus a 4-3 unranked Wisconsin team. If it smells like a rat, looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. The sportsbooks just aren’t that generous or kind. This is a classic example of when thinking like an oddsmaker will pay dividends. By the way, Wisconsin is coming off last Saturday’s easy 30-13 win at Purdue and held the Boilermakers to a mere 206 yards of total offense while also forcing 5 turnovers. Comparatively speaking, during Iowa’s home loss to Purdue 2 weeks ago they allowed the Boilermakers to rack up 464 yards of total offense. Bet Wisconsin minus the points. |
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10-23-21 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Utah @ Oregon State 7:30 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*) Since starting the season 1-2, Utah has reeled off 3 straight wins and all came versus conference opponents. On the other hand, Oregon State will be in a sour mood after suffering a 31-24 upset loss at Washington State 2 weeks ago in a game they closed as a 4.5-point favorite. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-2 with their only other setback occurring at #25 Purdue 30-21 during their season opener. The Beavers are a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 21.0 points per game. Oregon State has rushed for 242 yards or more in each of their previous 5 games. The Beavers defense has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 92 yards or less rushing. After convincing wins over USC and Arizona State in their last 2 games, Utah will be vulnerable to come up flat on Saturday. Meanwhile, Oregon State had 2 weeks to prepare for this home contest. Bet on Oregon State plus the points. |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State v. Air Force -3 | 20-14 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ Air Force 7:00 PM ET Game# 405-406 Play On: Air Force -3.0 (5*) We have an unranked Air Force team (6-1) as a favorite over #22 and undefeated San Diego State (6-0). With all due respected to those who vote in the national polls, but I will always trust the oddsmakers ability to post an accurate line compared their ability to rank teams, and especially so when it’s beyond the Top 10. Air Force will enter this game on a 4-game win streak. Any home team with a point-spread of +12.0 to -12.0 that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they’re facing an opponent (San Diego State) coming off 5 or more wins in a row, resulted in those home teams going 23-2 ATS and 22-3 SU since 2017. Bet on Air Force minus the small number. |
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10-23-21 | Nevada v. Fresno State -3.5 | 32-34 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
Nevada @ Fresno State 7:00 PM ET Game# 409-410 Play On: Fresno State -3.5 (5*) This is an unheralded but extremely intriguing game between 2 very good Mountain West Conference teams. However, I am more impressed with the Fresno State resume when comparing it to Nevada. Fresno State had a huge upset win at UCLA earlier this season as a double-digit dog and gave #10 Oregon all they can handle in a 31-24 road loss as an 18.0-point underdog. The Bulldogs will also be out to revenge losses to Nevada in each of the previous 2 seasons. Both teams can score a lot of points. Nevertheless, I like the defense of Fresno much better than that of Nevada’s, and that will be a key reason why we’ll cover this contest. Bet on Fresno State minus the points. |
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10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 3:30 PM ET PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the underdog in this spot with all being considered. After all, we have #8 and undefeated Oklahoma State as a touchdown underdog against an unranked team Iowa State with a season mark of 4-2. The Cyclones have underachieved this season after being a preseason Top 10 team considered to be a legitimate college football playoff contender. However, they were knocked off at #11 Iowa (6-1) and at #20 Baylor (6-1). They won’t be a playoff team but remains a serious Big 12 title threat if the can win on Saturday. I said it before and I will say it again, Oklahoma State is a fraudulent Top 10 team. The Cowboys 6 wins this season have all come by 11 or fwer and by an average of 7.0 points per game. This is a classic example of me trusting the oddsmakers in setting an accurate line compared to pollsters ranking teams. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-23-21 | Syracuse +3.5 v. Virginia Tech | 41-36 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech 12:30 PM ET Game# 341-342 Play On: Syracuse +3.5 (5*) I like the offensive identity since Syracuse inserted Garrett Schrader as their starting quarterback. They have become a run first team and they have executed that part of their game quite well. However, after a 3-1 start to the season, the Orange have dropped 3 games in a row. The silver lining is that each of those defeats came by exactly 3 points. Conversely, Virginia Tech is coming off a lopsided 28-7 home loss to Pittsburgh. Any college football road underdog of 4.0 or less (Syracuse) that’s coming off back-to-back losses by 6 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Virginia Tech) coming off a home loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those road underdogs going 13-0 ATS and 12-0-1 SU since 1982. Bet on Syracuse plus the points. |
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10-21-21 | San Jose State v. UNLV +4 | 27-20 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
San Jose State @ UNLV 11:00 PM ET Game# 411-412 Play On: UNLV +4.0 (5*) San Jose State is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road this season and averaged just 10.0 points scored per game. As a matter of fact, the Spartans have scored 17 points or fewer in 5 of their 6 games versus FBS opponents this season. UNLV is 0-6 thus far. However, they’ve shown vast improvement over their last 3 games. They lost all 3 of those contests by 8 points or fewer and against respectable opponents (Fresno State, UTSA, and Utah State). UNLV has played a far more difficult schedule than the one San Jose State has faced. This is the week the Rebels get over the hump. Bet UNLV plus the points. |
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10-16-21 | Air Force +4 v. Boise State | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 34 m | Show | |
Air Force @ Boise State 9:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On: Air Force +4.0 (5*) Boise State is coming off last week’s 26-17 upset win at then #10 BYU. That evened the Broncos season record at 3-3. However, Boise State is 0-2 SU&ATS following a win this season and both contests occurred at home. Boise State has allowed 235 yards or more rushing in 3 of its 6 games, and that’s 98th out of 130 FBS teams in that statistical category. That presents an issue for the Broncos defense since they’ll be facing an Air Force team who averages 341.3 yards rushing per game which is best in the country. Speaking of Air Force, they enter this week with a stellar 5-1 record. Their only loss happened in Week 3 when they fell 49-45 at Utah State. Casting that contest aside, the Falcons allowed 14 points or less and 286 yards or fewer in each of their other 5 games. It also must be noted, Air Force is 2nd in the country when it comes to offensive time of possession at 37:43 per game. The opposing offense can’t score if they’re on the sidelines and that’s been a key contributor to those 5 impressive defensive efforts. Lastly, Air Force will be playing with big time revenge after losing its last 4 encounters with Boise State. I love this spot for the away underdog. Bet Air Force plus the points. |
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10-16-21 | Iowa State v. Kansas State +6.5 | 33-20 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Kansas State 7:30 PM ET Game# 197-198 Play On: Kansas State +6.5 (5*) Kansas State has been a profitable conference home underdog in recent seasons. Specifically speaking, since 2011 Kansas State is 9-3 SU&ATS as a conference home underdog of 7.0 or less. Conversely, since 2019, Iowa State has gone 0-4 ATS as a conference away favorite of 7.0 or less and lost 3 of those contests straight up. Additionally, Kansas State has won 7 consecutive home games versus Iowa State. Kansas State got off to a 3-0 start but unfortunately dropped their last 2 games. There is a silver lining to those losses when considering they came against #12 Oklahoma State (4-0) and #4 Oklahoma (6-0). It’s not like they were blown out as their defeat at Oklahoma State was 31-20, and in their previous game the Wildcats lost 37-31 to Oklahoma but covered as a 12.0-point home underdog. The Wildcats will be playing with big time revenge after being throttled 45-0 at Iowa State last season. Iowa State was ranked in the Top 10 preseason rankings. However, they’re off to a 3-2 start and they’re currently unranked. The Cyclones are coming off a 59-7 home rout of Kansas. Iowa State is 0-2 SU&ATS this season following a win. The Cyclones lone 3 wins came over Northern Iowa (FCS level team) 16-10 in a game they were a 31.5-point favorite, Kansas (1-4), and UNLV (0-5). Any college football conference home underdog of 4.0 to 10.5 points (Kansas State) that’s playing with revenge, and they’re coming off a home loss by 9 points or fewer in which they covered as an underdog, versus an opponent (Iowa State) with a winning record, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2002. Those underdogs also went 13-7 SU in those games as well. Bet Kansas State plus the points. |