Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-17-20 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3 | 49-50 | Win | 100 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
UCF @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET Game# 149-150 Play On: Memphis +3.0 (5*) These are two quality teams who are both coming off a loss. The difference being UCF blew a 23-5 lead at home to Tulsa and eventually fell 34-26. On the other hand, SMU overcame a 24-0 deficit at SMU and then lost when SMU kicked a field goal as time expired resulting in a 30-27 defeat. I see that as a momentum advantage of Memphis over UCF based on how both teams finished their previous game. Additionally, since 2017, Memphis is 21-2 straight up at home and that includes winning 11 consecutive times. That alone creates ample betting value on the home underdog in this matchup. Bet on Memphis plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-17-20 | Louisville v. Notre Dame -16.5 | 7-12 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Notre Dame 2:30 PM ET Game# 153-154 Play On: Notre Dame -16.5 (5*) Louisville opened the season with a home win over Western Kentucky. Since that time, they have gone 0-3 straight up and 0-2-1 ATS with all those defeats coming against ACC opponents. The most disappointing of those losses came in their 46-27 loss to Georgia Tech last week in a game in which they were a 4.0-point road favorite. After a 2-week layoff due to COVID-19 issues, Notre Dame returned to action last Saturday with an easy 42-26 home win over Florida State. The Notre Dame defense was a bit rusty but settled down as the game progressed. Speaking of the defense, they are allowing 13.0 points per contest during a 3-0 start to the season. Look for the Notre Dame stop unit to take advantage of a Louisville team which has committed a whopping 11 turnovers through their first 4 games. Notre Dame is averaging outrushing their opponents by an average of 160 yards per game during their 3-0 start. During their previous 2 games they averaged 6.2 yards per rushing attempt against South Florida and 8.4 yards per try versus Florida State. This sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle below which supports a pick on Notre Dame. Any college football home favorite of 10.5 to 21.0 (Notre Dame) that is outrushing their opponents by an average of 60 or more yards per game on the season, and they are coming off 2 straight contests in which they averaged 6.0 or more yards per rushing attempt, resulted in those teams going 41-14 ATS (74.5%) since 1992. The average line for those 55 teams was -16.3. Bet on Notre Dame minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-17-20 | Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -12.5 | 19-31 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 36 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Miami 12:00 PPOM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Miami -12.5 (5*) After a 3-0 start and a high national ranking, Miami was humbled in their blowout loss to Clemson last week in a game they were dominated on both sides of the ball. I look for the Canes to bounce back with a vengeance this week against a Pittsburgh team which comes off a pair of heartbreaking 1-point losses to NC State and Boston College who are both average at best. Miami has gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite while winning by a decisive 24.0 points per contest. Bet on Miami minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston +5 | 43-26 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
BYU @ Houston 9:30 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Houston +5.0 (5*) BYU is 4-0 and nationally ranked but none of those victories have come against a team the caliber of what they will face tonight. BYU blew out their first 3 opponents, but they turned in an unimpressive performance in their last game versus UTSA. They were a massive 33.0-point home favorite in that contest but escaped with a just a narrow 7-point win. Houston finally was able to play their first game of the season last week after having several dates scheduled due to COVID-19. They got off to a slow start after falling behind 24-7 versus Tulane, then stormed back to win going away 49-31 and cover as a 6.5-point home favorite. Furthermore, they won that came handily despite committing 5 turnovers while forcing none from Tulane. This is a very experienced roster that is in year 2 of the head coaching tenure of Dana Holgorsen. I am of the opinion this is a very good Houston team that is flying under the radar at this still early juncture. Bet on Houston plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane +7 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
SMU @ Tulane 6:00 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Tulane +7.0 (5*) SMU squandered a 24-0 lead in their previous game against Memphis and needed a last second field goal to ultimately win that contest 30-27. Tulane is coming off a similar type fate having blown a 24-7 lead versus Houston last week in a game they were held to a season low 70 yards rushing. However, in their prior 3 games the Green Wave rushed for 203, 265, and 430 yards. Conversely, SMU has allowed 189 yards or more rushing in al 3 games versus FBS opponents this season. I look for Tulane to lean heavily on their running game to control time of possession and limit the number of possessions for an explosive SMU offense. Bet on Tulane plus the points for a 5* underdog wager. |
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10-10-20 | Charlotte v. North Texas +3 | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 50 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ North Texas 8:00 PM ET Game# 355-356 Play On: North Texas +3.0 (5*) Although North Texas is just 1-2, their offensive numbers suggest otherwise. The Mean Green are averaging a robust 41.0 points scored and 573.7 yards gained per game. However, they have been plagued by turnovers, undisciplined penalties, and shoddy defensive play. North Texas is averaging 239 yards per game rushing. Conversely, Charlotte is allowing an average of 232 yards rushing per game and an alarmingly high 6.2 yards per carry. Sometimes the best defense is an potent offensive running game. This looks to be a textbook example of just that. Charlotte is 0-2 but covered both of those contests as an underdog. Recent college football betting history suggests teams in this precise situation have been a fade when cast as a favorite. Any college football home team that is facing an opponent off 2 consecutive losses which they covered as an underdog on both occasions, resulted in this home teams going 31-5 straight up since 2016. The straight up results take on added significance since this betting angle backs the home underdog. Bet on North Texas plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-10-20 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -14 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
Miami @ Clemson 7:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Clemson -14.0 (10*) Both teams come in with unblemished 3-0 records. Nonetheless, Miami is 3-0 ATS during those contests while Clemson failed to cover as a double-digit favorite on each occasion. However, it must be noted, the defending ACC Champion Tigers were a favorite of 28.0 or greater in all those contests. Truth be told, they sleepwalked through each of those victories and obviously looked uninspired while playing vastly inferior opposition. That will not be the case with #7 Miami and their star transfer quarterback D’Eriq King coming to Death Valley. Bet on Clemson minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-10-20 | Mississippi State +2 v. Kentucky | 2-24 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 56 m | Show | |
Mississippi State @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Mississippi State +2.0 (5*) After stunning the defending national champion LSU Tigers as a 17.0-point underdog in their season opener Mississippi State was on the opposite side of that spectrum in a stunning loss to Arkansas as a 17.0-point home favorite. Even more humiliating for the Bulldogs is it enabled Arkansas to snap an abysmal 20-game SEC losing streak. Now they find themselves as a road underdog against an 0-2 Kentucky team that has been a bit of a disappointment to start the season. Kentucky has an extremely strong rushing attack. However, the defensive strength of the Bulldogs defense has been their ability to stop the run evidenced by them allowing just 1.9 yards per rushing attempt in their first 2 games. Furthermore, Mississippi State has passed for an abundant 946 yards thus far. Conversely, the Kentucky defense is allowing an atrocious 9.9 yards per pass attempt thus far. Bet on Mississippi State for a 5* wager. |
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10-10-20 | Tennessee +12.5 v. Georgia | 21-44 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 15 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Georgia 3:30 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Tennessee +12.5 (5*) This is the chance Tennessee has been looking for. A chance prove they are indeed for real. Since starting last season 2-5, Tennessee has reeled off 8 consecutive wins which includes conference wins over South Carolina and Missouri in 2020. They will be facing a highly ranked SEC opponent in Georgia that may be getting caught in a vulnerable spot. The #3 Bulldogs are coming off a dominating win at home over Auburn last week and they travel to Tuscaloosa a week from Saturday to take on #2 Alabama. Bet on Tennessee plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-10-20 | Virginia Tech +4.5 v. North Carolina | 45-56 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 11 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 319-320 Play On: Virginia Tech +4.5 (5*) North Carolina has hardly appeared to me as a #8 team in the country from what I witness during their first 2 games. They beat a below average Syracuse team in their season opener 31-3. However, that was a 10-6 game headed into the final quarter. Last week they narrowly escaped with a 26-22 win at Boston College. Virginia Tech is 2-0 after wins over Duke and NC State to start the season. The Hokies ran for over 300 yards in both of those contests. Additionally, they will get their #1 quarterback Hendon Hooker back for a first time this season after being forced to sit out under COVID-19 protocol regulations. Despite the defense being hit hard by COVID-19, the Hokies still lead the nation in sacks. That is not good news for highly touted North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell who has played below the standard he displayed last season to this point. Bet on Virginia Tech plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-03-20 | Auburn v. Georgia -7 | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
Auburn @ Georgia 7:30 PM ET Game# 153-154 Play On: Georgia -7.0 (5*) Auburn is coming off a 29-13 home win over then nationally ranked Kentucky. However, they were beneficiaries of a +3 turnover margin and were outgained by 60 yards in that contest. Georgia got off to a shaky start as a 4-touchdown favorite last week and actually trailed 7-5 at the half. The Bulldogs came out and dominated 2nd half action and left with an easy 37-10 win. I look for the Bulldogs to be much sharper this week against the #7 Tigers and put together a consistent 60-minute effort. Bet on Georgia minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +7.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
Oklahoma @ Iowa State 7:30 PM ET Game# 123-12 Play On: Iowa State +7.5 (10*) I know many college football bettors will not be courageous enough to fade Oklahoma following a loss. However, I am not only willing to do so but it is going to be my largest wager on Saturday. Oklahoma had a commanding 35-17 lead in the 4th quarter against Kansas State last Saturday. Nevertheless, the Wildcats scored 24 unanswered and came away with a huge 38-35 upset win as a 27.5-point road underdog. Now Oklahoma has not lost 2 consecutive regular season games since 1999. As a result, public betting has favorited Oklahoma big time thus far. Yet, this line went from Oklahoma opening as a 9.5-point favorite down its current state of -7.5. This is a chance for redemption on many fronts for Iowa State. First, they will be out to atone for a poor showing in their home opener when they were knocked off by UL-Lafayette 31-14 in a game they closed as a 13.0-point favorite. Secondly, they will be out to revenge a narrow 42-41 loss at Oklahoma last year in a game they were a 14.5-point underdog, and failed on a 2-point conversion late in that contest which would have earned them an upset over the eventual Big 12 champion. Despite Oklahoma winning 5 straight Big 12 titles and making it to the College Football Playoffs the last 3 years, Iowa State has played the Sooners extremely tough. As a matter of fact, since Matt Campbell took over the head coach duties at Iowa State in 2016, The Cyclone have gone just 1-3 against Oklahoma but all 3 losses came by 10 points or less. Bet on Iowa State plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-03-20 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. Kansas State | 21-31 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
Texas Tech @ Kansas State 3:30 ET Game# 135-136 Play On: Texas Tech +2.5 (5*) Kansas State is coming off a huge upset win over then #3 Oklahoma last Saturday in a game they overcame a 17-point 4th quarter deficit. It would be hard to imagine them coming close to matching their intensity they exhibited a week ago. There is a more than reasonable chance that the Wildcats will have an emotional letdown this Saturday. It is just a matter of to what degree. Keep in mind, this is the same Kansas State team which was knocked off in the home opener by Arkansas State 35-31 as a sizable 15.0-point favorite. Conversely, Texas Tech is coming off a gut wrenching 63-56 overtime loss to #9 Texas. The Red Raiders blew a 56-41 lead with less than 4 minutes to play in that contest. Texas Tech has long been known for their explosive pass happy offense and this year is no different. Tech has passed for a combined 755 yards in their first 2 games. They will be sure to attack a vulnerable Kansas State secondary which has surrendered 717 yards passing in their first 2 contests. Additionally, this is a Texas Tech team that has run the ball with some success in the early going while averaging 155.0 rushing yards per game. Look for there to be a role reversal this week when both teams square off. Bet on Texas Tech plus the points as a 5* wager. |
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10-03-20 | TCU +11 v. Texas | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
TCU @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: TCU +11.0 (5*) Texas is coming off an emotional come from behind road victory over Texas Tech last week. The Longhorns overcame a 56-41 deficit with just 3:41 to play and forced overtime where they eventually prevailed 63-56. They will be facing a TCU team which is coming off a tough 37-34 home loss to a solid Iowa State team. Nonetheless, the Horned Frogs torched the Cyclones defense for 400 yards passing in defeat. They should be able to move the ball against a Texas defense which looked soft a week ago and stay inside the number. Bet on TCU plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-26-20 | Florida State v. Miami-FL -11 | 10-52 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
Florida State @ Miami 7:30 PM ET Game# 39-396 Play On: Miami -11.0 (5*) Miami has opened the season with wins over UAB and at Louisville while covering both contests as a favorite. Florida State is coming off a 16-13 upset loss at home to Georgia Tech. This sets up an extremely profitable college football ATS betting angle shown below. Any college football favorite of 10.5 to 21.0-points (Miami) that is coming of 2 consecutive covers as a favorite and is facing an opponent (Florida State) coming off a conference loss by 3 points or less, resulted in those favorites going 30-8 ATS since 1992. The average line in those 38 games was 14.5 and the favorites outscored the underdogs by 22.7-points per game. Bet on Miami minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-26-20 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +4 | 31-27 | Push | 0 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ South Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 405-406 Play On: South Carolina +4.0 (5*) #16 Tennessee returns 17 starters from a team that finished last season on a 6-game win streak. However, head coach Jeremy Pruitt enters his 3rd season in Knoxville and his first 2 Volunteers teams both got off to slow starts. Specifically, during Pruitt’s 2-year tenure, Tennessee has gone a combined 3-7 in their first 5 games of the year, and that includes last year’s 38-30 loss to Georgia State as a 23.5-point home favorite in their opening contest. The bad news is South Carolina was 4-8 a season ago. The silver lining was that when it was all said and done, they played the toughest schedule in all of college football. The Gamecocks were horrible offensively last year. Head coach Will Muschamp brings in former Colorado State head coach Mike Bobo as his new offensive coordinator. Bobo was able to convince senior graduate transfer Colin Hill to join him at South Carolina. Hill spent the last 3 years under center for Bobo at Colorado State. I would not be surprised whatsoever to get the outright upset in this one. Moreover, I will take the points as an additional bonus and not be greedy. Bet on South Carolina plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-26-20 | Mississippi State +17 v. LSU | 44-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
Mississippi State @ LSU 3:30 PM ET Game# 433-434 Play On: Mississippi State +17.0 (5*) I know high profile SEC football programs like LSU reload as opposed to rebuilding. However, the defending national champion LSU Tigers need to replace an inordinate amount of talent that from last year’s team who are now making their livelihoods playing on Sundays. Besides the fact they will be facing a Mississippi State team who is now coached by passing game guru Mike Leach formerly of Texas Tech and Washington State. SEC defensive coordinators will need time to adjust to Leach’s complex passing game. Additionally, Leach was able to persuade former Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello to come on board as a senior graduate transfer. Costello spent 3 seasons as Stanford’s starting quarterback and threw for 6,251 yards and 9 touchdowns despite having his season cut short by injury in 2019. I am not going to be bold enough to predict an outright upset. Nevertheless, LSU fans will witness this game being way too close for comfort. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-26-20 | Army v. Cincinnati -12.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
Army @ Cincinnati 3:30 PM ET Game# 435-436 Play On: Cincinnati -12.5 (10*) Army has looked terrific in 2 blowout wins over Middle Tennessee State and UL-Monroe. Their vaunted triple option rushing attack has looked in midseason form while racking up 390 yards per game on the ground and averaging 36 minutes in time of possession per game. Nonetheless, they will be stepping up in class considerably in their first road game of the season against a Cincinnati team that has gone a superb 22-5 during the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats return 8 starters on defense and 15 of its top 17 tacklers from a year ago. The Cincinnati defensive line may be the best in the AAC this season. I look for the Bearcats to open an early lead and give Army a taste of its own medicine by controlling the tempo of this game. Bet on Cincinnati minus the points for a 10* Top Play |
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09-24-20 | UAB v. South Alabama +7 | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
UAB @ South Alabama 7:30 PM ET Game# 417-418 Play On: South Alabama +7.0 (5*) UAB opened the season with an uninspiring 45-35 win over Central Arkansas that plays at the FCS level. They followed that up with a 31-14 loss at nationally ranked Miami in a game they failed to cover as a 15.0-point underdog and were outgained by 207 yards. Since the start of last season UAB has gone 10-6. However, 2 of those wins came over FCS opponents. Additionally, 7 of their wins versus FBS opponents last year were against teams that finished a combined 15-69 (.178). South Alabama enters this game with a record of 1-1. They covered both of those contests as a double-digit underdog. They won at Southern Miss 32-21 in their season opener as a 12.0-point underdog. Their last game resulted in a narrow 27-24 loss as an 11.5-point home underdog to Tulane. Unfortunately, South Alabama blew a 24-13 lead in the 4th quarter of that game that prohibited them from pulling off another huge upset. The Jaguars have amassed an impressive 669 yards passing in their first 2 games of the season. Bet on South Alabama plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-19-20 | SMU -14 v. North Texas | 65-35 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
SMU @ North Texas 6:00 PM ET Game# 129-130 Play On: SMU -14.0 (*) SMU is coming off a 31-24 win at Texas State in a game in which they piled up 544 yards of offense. They should have scored much more if not for 3 costly turnovers. North Texas defeated Houston Baptist 57-31 in their season opener. The good news is they amassed over 700 yards of total offense. The bad news is they allowed their FCS opponent to rack up 569 yards of total offense and that includes 480 coming through the air. SMU will have a field day passing the ball against a porous North Texas secondary and should be able to score at will. The Mustangs defense will give up their share of yards and points but will get enough stops for us to get the cover. Bet on SMU minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-19-20 | SMU v. North Texas OVER 69 | Top | 65-35 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
SMU @ North Texas 6:00 PM ET Game# 129-130 Play On: Over 69.0 (10*) The enormous total in this game is for good reason. It still is not enough to scare me away. North Texas had over 700 yards of offense and allowed more than 500 in a 7-31 win over Houston Baptist in their season opener. They now will face one of the more prolific passing attacks in college football during recent years when they take on SMU this Saturday. The SMU secondary is vulnerable against good passing attacks and North Texas has exactly that. This will be an extremely high scoring game in which they winning team will most likely have to score 50 points or more. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-19-20 | Boston College +6 v. Duke | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
Boston College @ Duke 12:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Boston College +6.0 (5*) Duke has gone an abysmal 0-12 ATS in their last 12 conference home games when the line was +5.0 to -10.0. They even lost 11 of those 12 games straight up. Conversely, Since 2014, Boston College has gone a perfect 7-0 as an away underdog and they won 4 of those 7 contests straight up. Duke hung in there in a 14-point loss at Notre Dame last week. However, that was a talented Notre Dame team that appeared extremely flat as a 3-touchdown favorite. Bet on Boston College plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-12-20 | Georgia Tech v. Florida State -12 | 16-13 | Loss | -117 | 56 h 35 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET Game# 399-400 Play On: Florida State -12.0 (5*) Geoff Collins begins his 2nd season as the head coach of Georgia Tech. Collins is slowly transitioning his spread offense from the triple option attack that was employed during the Paul Johnson era. The Yellowjackets were 3-9 a season ago which included a loss to Citadel and 6 other defeats by 16 points or greater. They do have 9 returning starters on offense. However, that unit was among the worst nationally in many statistical categories. Florida State is an experienced team with a terrific young new head coach in Mike Norvell who comes over from Memphis. Norvell has proven to be a brilliant offensive mind and he inherits 7 returning offensive starters. The Seminoles also return 10 defensive starters and that type of continuity is sure to pay dividends early on. Especially when considering the shortened offseason because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Florida State finished 6-7 a season ago which marked a second consecutive losing season which was preceded by 42 straight winning campaigns. I look for Florida State to be back on its way to prominence and it starts with an emphatic statement on Saturday. Any college football conference home favorite of 7.0 to 14.5-points that is playing in their season opener, and they won 6 or more games the year before, versus an opponent who won 4 or fewer games during the previous season, resulted in those home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1998. More importantly, the average margin of victory in those 5 contests was 33.0 points per game. Bet on Florida State minus the points as a 5* wager. |
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09-12-20 | Arkansas State v. Kansas State -12.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
Arkansas State @ Kansas State 12;00 PM ET Game# 427-428 Play On: Kansas State -12.5 (10*) Arkansas State hung tough last week at Memphis last week in a 37-24 loss in which they covered as a 17.0-point underdog. However, they allowed the quick strike Memphis offense to have 34 minutes in time of possession. They also allowed Memphis to rack up 502 yards of total offense in that contest. That is not good news since Kansas State was one of the best teams nationally in time of possession last season. Furthermore, since 2015, Arkansas State is 0-6 SU&ATS after their season opener as a non-conference away underdog. The average line in those 6 contests was 17.5 and they lost by an average of 34.8 points per game. Since 2017, Kansas Sate is 3-0 SU&ATS as a non-conference home favorite when facing an opponent from a Group of 5 Conference. The average line in those 3 contests was 25.7 and the Wildcats won by 41.3 points per game. Kansas State will be a tad bit inexperienced on offense, but they do have a good one in senior dual threat quarterback Skyler Thomson who passed for 2315 yards while also running 405 yards and 11 touchdowns. Play on Kansas State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette +11.5 v. Iowa State | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 43 h 56 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette @ Iowa State 12:00 PM ET Game# 415-416 Play On: UL-Lafayette +11.5 (5*) This game has trap written all over it. We have the #23 ranked Power 5 Conference school like Iowa State Cyclone as just an 11.5-point home favorite versus a team from the lowly Sun Belt Conference. However, when digging deeper the picture becomes a wee bit clearer. Iowa State is coming off a disappoint 7-6 season in which they had high expectations. UL-Lafayette went 11-3 a season ago with 2 of their losses coming against national ranked Sun Belt champ Appalachian State and the other in their season opener versus Mississippi State. The Rajun Cajuns return senior quarterback Levi Lewis who passed for over 3000 yards last season and their top two running that combined to rush for 1967 yards. I like the Rajun Cajuns to take this game right down to the wire and an outright upset would not shock me in the least. But we will gladly take the points as an added bonus. Bet on UL-Lafayette plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL -14 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show | |
UAB @ Miami Fla. 8:00 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Miami Fla. -14.0 (5*) UAB is coming off an uninspiring 45-35 home win over Central Arkansas last Thursday. The Blazers are coming off a successful 9-5 season in 2019 which saw them lose 49-6 to Florida Atlantic in the CUSA Championship Game. When researching further, UAB had 7 wins over FBS opponents last season that finished with a combined 15-69 record. Additionally, they also squeaked out a 24-19 home win over Alabama State team that plays at the FCS level and finished last season with a 5-6 record. In their last 4 losses last season they were outscored by an enormous margin of 147-32. The Blazers do return 18 starters but sometimes experience can be deceiving and especially so when stepping up in class to play a Power 5 Conference team on the road. Miami is coming off last year’s disappointing 6-6 regular season. However, all 6 losses came by 10 points or fewer and an average of 6.2-points per game. The most disheartening defeat came in a 14-0 bowl game loss to Louisiana Tech. What has been sorely missing for Miami in recent years has been consistent productivity at quarterback. Well that is about to change with redshirt senior D’Eriq King a transfer from Houston. During his only full season as the starting quarterback at Houston in 2018, king completed 63.5% of his passes for 2982 yards, 36 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions. He also ran for 675 yards and 14 touchdowns. As a matter of fact, during the previous 3 seasons at Houston, King threw for 50 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions and ran for an additional 28 scores. Despite going a mediocre 13-13 the past 2 seasons, Miami was still able to haul in the 13th best recruiting class nationally in 2020. Bet on Miami Fla. Minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy +1 | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
BYU @ Navy 8:00 ET Game# 243-244 Play On: Navy +1.0 (10*) BYU recently had 10 of their originally scheduled 12 games cancelled to reasons pertaining to COVID-19. Their schedule has been reduced from 12 to 8 games. As a result, the coaching staff and players were just notified a few weeks ago that they would be traveling cross country to play Navy in Annapolis, Maryland. Instead of having an entire offseason to prepare for the highly efficient Navy triple option rushing attack, they had all of 3 weeks to do so. That certainly is not an easy task since it will be extremely difficult to simulate the efficiency and speed that the Navy offense operates at. Besides the short preparation time for BYU, they will also be facing a Navy team that went 11-2 last season with their only 2 defeats coming against #17 Memphis and #12 Notre Dame which both took place on the road. The Midshipmen also defeated #22 Air Force (11-2) and SMU (10-3). Navy finished at #20 in the final 2019-2020 AP Poll. Navy has gone 29-4 in their last 33 at home. Furthermore, the Midshipmen are 12-0 in their last 12 at home against non-conference opponents. Bet on Navy for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis OVER 74 | 24-37 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
Arkansas State @ Memphis 8:00 PM ET Game# 237-238 Play On: Over 74.0 (5*) This is an extremely high total and for good reason. Both teams have experienced and proven quarterbacks in Brady White of Memphis and Arkansas State’s Logan Bonner. As a matter of fact, Bonner went down with an injury early last year which was the season ending variety and his backup Layne Hatcher ended up with over 3,000 yards passing while filling in as a redshirt-freshmen. Arkansas State has 9 returning starters from an offense that averaged 33.9 points and 439.9 yards per game in 2019. Memphis di lose their top 3 receivers from last year but they were very deep at that position with underclassmen. The Tigers did receive a huge blow when Heisman hopeful running back Kenneth Gainwell opted out this week for COVID-19 concerns. Nevertheless, his absence won’t be felt nearly as much in this spot than it will be during conference action. The weakness of both teams is clearly on the defensive side of the ball. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6 v. LSU | 25-42 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Clemson vs. LSU (8:00 PM ET) Game# 283-284 Play On: Play On: Clemson +6.0 (5*) The Clemson Tigers have now made 5 straight college football playoff appearances and they’ll be seeking their 3rd national championship in 4 years. Furthermore, they also played in the 2016 National Championship Game where they suffered a narrow 45-40 loss to Alabama. Monday will make 4 national title games in 5 years for Clemson. They’re also a stellar 6-2 in college football playoff games. Conversely, LSU has made the college football 4-team playoff for a first time. They were extremely impressive in the 63-28 semifinal win over #4 Oklahoma. However, they’ll be up against a much better defense and team tonight that possesses plenty of big game experience. I won’t go out on a limb and call for an outright upset, but I’ll glad take the points and see it as an attractive betting value. Bet on Clemson plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson v. LSU UNDER 67.5 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Clemson vs. LSU 8:00 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Under 67.5 (10*) Although these two teams have explosive offenses, I like this game to be a lower scoring affair relative to the current total. Clemson has allowed 23 points or fewer in each of their 14 games this season and that includes 14 points or less 11 times. LSU has allowed 37 points or more 4 times, but their defense has shown a marked improvement during their previous 4 contests while allowing 16.3 points and 270.3 yards per game. The offenses will be able to mover the ball, but both defenses will get enough stops to keep this game on the lower side of the number. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette -14 | 17-27 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Miami-Ohio @ UL-Lafayette 7:30 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: UL-Lafayette -14.0 (5*) Miami (8-5) somehow came away with winning the MAC championship being outgained by 74.6 yards per contest. During the Redhawks 8 games on the road or at neutral site they’ve averaged a paltry 18.5 points and 279.9 yards or total offense per game. It’s not like they had dominating defensive numbers either. In those previously mentioned road/neutral site contests, they’ve allowed 35.7 points and 429.9 yards per game. They will be facing a UL-Lafayette offense who’s averaging 38.8 points scored and 501.4 yards per game. Furthermore, ULL averages 265 yards per game on the ground. Conversely, Miami is giving up 174 yards rushing per contest. Bet on UL-Lafayette minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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01-04-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss UNDER 57 | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
Tulane vs. Southern Miss 11:30 AM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Under 57.0 (5*) Southern Miss finished their regular season slate by going under the total in each of their last 5 games. There was a combined average of 41.4 points scored per game during those 5 contests. Conversely, Tulane went under in each of their last 3 regular season games. Those trio of contests went under the total by an average of 8.5 points per game. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager. |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
Boston College vs. Cincinnati 3:00 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Cincinnati -7.5 (5*) Despite Boston College going 6-6 and making it to a bowl game, head coach Steve Addazio was fired after the Eagles regular season slate was completed. That’s never a positive thing for team’s preparing and playing in a bowl game. Conversely, #21 Cincinnati’s (10-3) football program is stable under the guidance of head coach Luke Fickell who has guided the Bearcats to double-digit wins for a second straight season. Cincinnati’s only 3 losses came against #2 Ohio State (13-1) and twice to #19 Memphis (12-2). Bet on Cincinnati minus the points as a 5* wager. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia UNDER 41.5 | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show | |
Baylor vs. Georgia 8:45 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Under 41.5 (5*) By modern day college football standards this is a very low total. However, there’s good reason for that. Georgia has allowed just 12.5 points and 274.3 yards per game on their way to an 11-2 record. They’ve gone under the total in 7 of their last 8 games. On the other side of the coin is a Baylor team which has given up only 19.3 points per game while going 11-2. I’m calling for a defensive battle and low scoring affair in this one. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor +5 v. Georgia | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
Baylor vs. Georgia 8:45 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Baylor +5.0 (10*) When it comes to college football bowl season handicapping, sometimes it’s a matter of what team you can bank on being more motivated. Georgia need a win in the SEC Championship Game against LSU to make the college football playoffs. However, they were throttled by LSU and thus had to settle for a Sugar Bowl invite against upstart Baylor. Baylor has enjoyed a magnificent 11-2 season to this point. The Bears only 2 losses came at the hands of #4 Oklahoma (12-2). They suffered a heartbreaking 30-23 overtime loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game which cost them a trip to the college football playoffs. They also blew a 28-3 lead at home to Oklahoma in a 34-31 loss. The bottom line is this. Nobody in college football was surprised by Georgia’s success this season. However, nobody expected Baylor to be this good let alone being one play away from reaching the college football playoffs. Baylor will be the more juiced up team in this one. Bet on Baylor plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-01-20 | Wisconsin -3 v. Oregon | 27-28 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Wisconsin vs. Oregon 5:00 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Wisconsin -3.0 (5*) Despite Oregon (11-2) being the higher ranked team with a better record than Wisconsin (10-3), they find themselves as the underdog in this Rose Bowl contest. Like I’ve alluded to on several occasions, I trust oddsmakers evaluations more than the college football playoff committee. They’re begging you to take the #6 ranked Ducks as an underdog over #8 Wisconsin. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Wisconsin has played the tougher schedule with 2 of their 3 defeats coming against #2 Ohio State (13-1). The Badgers star running back Jonathan Williams will be the deciding difference in this contest. The Wisconsin defense has been outstanding this season and has recorded 4 shutouts. Bet on Wisconsin minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota +7.5 v. Auburn | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Minnesota vs. Auburn 1:00 PM ET Game# 285-286 Play On: Minnesota +7.5 (5*) P.J. Fleck has done a remarkable job of turning this Minnesota football program around. The #18 Gophers are 10-2 and will be highly motivated as an underdog while facing #12 Auburn (9-3). I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset in this one but let’s not get greedy and take the generous number being given. Bet on Minnesota plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-31-19 | Georgia State v. Wyoming UNDER 49 | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Wyoming vs. Georgia State 4:30 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Under 49.0 (5*) Both teams rely heavily on their running games. Wyoming has run the ball on 69.8% of their offensive plays this season and Georgia State has done so 60.5% of the time. Wyoming has gone under the total in each of their final 6 regular season games and there was only a combined 33.5 points scored per contest. The Cowboys are allowing just 17.8 points per game this season. Conversely, Wyoming has scored 23 points or fewer in 10 of their last 12 games. The Cowboys are averaging just 9 pass completions and 128 yards passing per game. Georgia State isn’t a very good defensive team, but they should hold their own against a methodically boring Wyoming offense. Georgia State has put up very good offensive numbers this season but will find it difficult to move the ball with any consistency against a stout Wyoming defense. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager. |
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12-31-19 | Kansas State v. Navy -2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
Navy vs. Kansas State 3:45 PM ET Game# 255-256 Play On: Navy -2.5 (5*) Navy enters the Sun Bowl with an impressive 10-2 record. Their only losses came against #15 Notre Dame (11-2) and #19 Memphis (12-2). The Midshipmen also own quality wins over Air Force (11-2) and SMU (10-3). There are a handful of teams that run the triple option rushing attack, but none are close to doing it as successfully as Navy. The Midshipmen are averaging 364 rushing yards per game and a lofty 6.1 yards per attempt. Conversely, Kansas State has allowed 200 yards or more rushing on 4 of their 12 games. The Wildcats are 8-4 and own a huge upset win at Oklahoma. However, their offense isn’t explosive and relies on grinding out long drives to wear opposing defenses down. I just don’t thing they’ll get enough offensive possessions against Navy to succeed in that regard. Bet on Navy for a 5* wager. |
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12-31-19 | Florida State v. Arizona State OVER 53 | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Arizona State vs. Florida State 2:00 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Over 53.0 (5*) Arizona State went 4-1 over the total in their final 5 regular season contests and there was a combined 59.4 points scored per game. Florida State went over in each of their last 3 regular season games and there was a combined 62.3 points scored per contest. This is an identical situation to the one I cashed in on Monday when the Virginia/Florida game went over the total. If it’s not broke, then don’t fix it. Any non-conference college football game with a total of 49.5 to 56.0 that involves teams averaging 100 to 140 rushing yards per contests, resulted in those games going 41-6 (87.2%) since 2010. Furthermore, this college football totals betting angle is a perfect 11-0 over in 2019. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager. |
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12-30-19 | Virginia v. Florida OVER 55 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Virginia vs. Florida 8:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Over 55.0 (10*) Both teams have productive passing attacks with Florida averaging 300 yards per game in the air and Virginia is at 263 per contest. Florida averages only 120 yards per game rushing while Virginia is just a tad better at 127 per contest. Virginia has gone over the total in each of their previous 5 contests with a combined 72.0 points being scored per game. Any non-conference college football games with a total of 49.5 to 56.0, and both teams are averaging 100 to 140 yards rushing per contest, resulted in those games going 40-6 (87%) over the total since 2010. There was an average total of 52.6 in those 46 contests and a combined 61.2 points were scored per game. Furthermore, this exact situation has occurred 10 times this season, and all those contests went over the total. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-30-19 | Mississippi State v. Louisville +5 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Louisville vs. Mississippi State 4:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Louisville +5.0 (5*) Mississippi State has question marks at quarterback with their second choice Tommy Stevens getting today’s start. Head coach Joe Morehead has been on the proverbial hot seat for the last 2 months but has somehow survived. The Bulldogs were a poor 3-6 this season versus teams that were invited to bowl games. Former Appalachian State head coach Scott Satterfield did a remarkable job in his first year in Louisville while tuning over a program that was 2-10 a season ago to 7-5 in 2019. As a result, Satterfield was named ACC Coach of the Year. Furthermore, during his tenure as head coach at Appalachian State, Satterfield’s teams were a perfect 3-0 during bow games. Louisville played 9 of their 12 regular season games against teams that were invited to bowl games. Bet on Louisville plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +2.5 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
Clemson vs. Ohio State 8:00 PM ET Game# 243-244 Play On: Ohio State +2.5 (10*) Ohio State has played the much tougher schedule of these pair of 13-0 teams and that will pay dividends in the outcome of this game. The Buckeyes have beaten #8 Wisconsin twice, #10 Penn State, #14 Michigan, and #21 Cincinnati. Clemson has recorded just 1 win over a team that’s currently ranked in the Top 25 and that was over #24 Virginia in the ACC Championship game. Bet on Ohio State plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-28-19 | Oklahoma v. LSU OVER 75.5 | 28-63 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
Oklahoma vs. LSU 4:00 PM ET Game# 241-242 Play On: Over 75.5 (5*) The total is this high for good reason and it won’t deter me from pulling the trigger on going over. Oklahoma is averaging 43.2 points and 554.1 yards per game this season. LSU averages 47.8 points and 554.3 yards per game. The LSU defense has allowed 500 or more yards on 3 occasions. Oklahoma has given up 31 points or more 4 times including 40 or greater twice. Oklahoma has averaged outgaining its opponents this season by a substantial average of 222.8 yards per game. LSU is outgaining their opponents this season by a large margin of 213.0 yards per game. LSU has amassed 481 yards or more of total offense in each of their previous 6 games. The previously mentioned statistics sets up an extremely profitable college football totals betting angle which is displayed below. Any college football team (LSU) playing after game 7 of their season with a total of 70.0 or greater, and they gained 450 yards or more in each of its previous 3 games, and both teams are outgaining their opponents by an average of 100 or more yards per game, resulted in those contests going 36-10 (78.3%) over the total since 1992. The average total in those 46 contests was 75.5 and there were 81.5 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager. |
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12-27-19 | USC +2.5 v. Iowa | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
USC vs. Iowa 8:00 PM ET Game# 233-234 Play On: USC +2.5 Iowa has relied heavily on their defense this season to do its heavy lifting. The Hawkeyes are allowing a mere 13.2 points per game this season. Yet, they somehow managed to lose 3 games this season. Iowa’s offensive production has left much to be desired. The Hawkeyes have averaged only 304.2 total yards of total offense per game. Iowa went 6-3 in Big 10 Conference play but only 1 of those wins came against a team that finished with a winning record. After suffering through an underachieving 5-4 start, USC finished their regular season slate by winning their last 3. Despite how goo the Iowa defense is, USC will present a stiff challenge with their multifaceted passing game. During their current 3-game win streak, USC has averaged an incredible 466 yards passing per contest. Bet on USC plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-27-19 | Oklahoma State v. Texas A&M -5.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M 6:45 PM ET Game# 231-232 Play On: Texas A&M -5.5 (5*) The public betting patterns have sided with Oklahoma State in this matchup. After all, the Cowboys have won 3 straight and 7 of its 9 bowl games under current head coach Mike Gundy. Yet, Texas A&M has gone from an opening 2.5-point favorite to their current status which shows them as high as a 6.5-point chalk. This is a classic case of reverse line movement. We must keep in mind, Texas A&M faced one of the hardest schedules in the country this season, playing three teams that were either ranked No.1 at the time or finished the season at No. 1 (Clemson, Alabama, LSU). They’ve also went up against five teams that were ranked in the top 10, and three of those five games were on the road (Clemson, Georgia, LSU). Bet on Texas A&M minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-27-19 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Wake Forest | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
Wake Forest vs. Michigan State 3:20 PM ET Game# 229-230 Play On: Michigan State -3.5 (5*) Wake Forest began the season by going 7-1. However, they dropped 3 of its final 4 regular season games with their only victory coming over a Duke team that entered that contest on a 4-game losing streak. Michigan State had lofty expectations in 2019 only to finish with a disappointing 6-6 record. Most of the Spartans issues came on offense. Nonetheless, they should have no trouble moving the ball against a Wake Forest defense that’s allowed 35 points or more on 5 separate occasions and 500 yards or greater 4 times. Conversely, the Michigan State defense has been solid for the most part while allowing just 22.7 points and 319.2 yards per game. Additionally, it should tell you something when two Power 5 conference teams meet in a bowl game and the one that’s 6-6 is favorite over an 8-4 opponent. Bet on Michigan State minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-27-19 | North Carolina v. Temple +6 | 55-13 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 59 m | Show | |
Temple vs. North Carolina 8:00 PM ET Game# 227-228 Play On: Temple +6.0 (5*) The good news for 6-6 North Carolina is all their losses have come by 6 points or fewer. The bad news is that they were 0-3-1 ATS and 1-3 straight up this season as a favorite of 9.5 or less. Furthermore, the Tar Heels also own only 1 win this season against bowl eligible teams. Temple enters their bowl game with a stellar 8-4 record. All 4 of their losses came against bowl teams with a combined record of 38-14 (.731). The Owls have gone an outstanding 5-0 ATS this season as an underdog of 9.0 or less, and they won 4 of those 5 contests straight up. Bet on Temple plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh -11 v. Eastern Michigan | 34-30 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 47 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan vs. Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ET Game# 225-226 Play On: Pittsburgh -11.0 (5*) Pittsburgh has unequivocally played a much tougher schedule compared to Eastern Michigan. The Panthers finished 4-4 during ACC action while Eastern Michigan went 3-5 in the MAC. As a matter of fact, 8 of Pittsburgh’s 12 games came against teams that are involved in bowl games. The Pittsburgh defense is far superior to that of Eastern Michigan’s stop unit. The Panthers are allowing just 21.2 points and 302.5 yards per game. Eastern Michigan has given up 30.3 points and 428.2 yards per game. Bet on Pittsburgh minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-24-19 | BYU v. Hawaii +2 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show | |
BYU @ Hawaii 8:00 PM ET Game# 221-220 Play On: Hawaii +2.0 (5*) Hawaii will have the advantage of playing at home in this game. Despite these teams not playing in the same conference, they will meet for a 3rd straight season. BYU won and covered the previous 2. The Rainbow Warriors are a very experienced team that will be playing with revenge and will also look to atone for a loss at Boise State in their previous contest which occurred in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Conversely, BYU has gone a money draining 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season, and that includes a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS as an away favorite of 4.0 or less. Hawaii has cover 2 of its previous 3 games. BYU has gone 5-3 in their last 8 games. However, the Cougars were just 2-6 ATS during those contests. This sets up an applicable and very profitable college football straight up betting angle which is illustrated below. Any college football home team (Hawaii) that cover in 2 of their previous 3 games, versus an opponent (BYU) which failed to cover in 6 or 7 of their previous 8 contests, resulted in those home teams going 45-12 (78.9%) straight up since 2015. Bet on Hawaii for a 5* wager. |
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12-21-19 | Washington -3 v. Boise State | Top | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
Washington vs. Boise State 7:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Washington -3.0 (10*) For starters, former Boise State and current Washington head coach Chris Peterson will be roaming the sidelines for a final time on Saturday. Peterson surprisingly resigned from his position in November due to personal issues. It’s har to imagine the Huskies not coming up with a huge effort in Peterson’s swan song. Secondly, #19 Boise State enters this Las Vegas Bowl with a terrific 12-1 record. Nonetheless, the oddsmakers have made unranked and 7-5 Washington as the favorite. Like I’ve alluded to on many occasions, I trust the oddsmakers a heck of a lot more than college football poll voters. By the way, Boise State suffered their only defeat at BYU 28-25. Conversely, Washington won easily at BYU earlier this season by a decisive score of 45-19. Bet on Washington minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-21-19 | SMU v. Florida Atlantic +3.5 | 28-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
SMU @ FAU 3:30 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: FAU +3.5 (5*) SMU is 10-2 and has been ranked in the Top 25 for numerous weeks this season. However, this Boca Raton Bowl will be played on the home field of FAU. After losing their first 2 games to #2 Ohio State and a vey good UCF team, FAU went on to win 10 of their next 11 games heading into this bowl matchup against SMU. FAU did lose head coach Lane Kiffin who took the job at Mississippi following the Owls 49-6 demolition of UAB in the Conference USA Championship game. Nonetheless, they quickly hired recently fired Florida State head coach Willie Taggart who already has a stranglehold in recruiting the plethora of high school talent Sunshine State. Taggert won’t be coaching on Saturday, but the Owls players should be inspired knowing he’ll be at the game and watching with a vested interest. Bet on FAU plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-21-19 | Liberty +5 v. Georgia Southern | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
Liberty vs. Georgia Southern 2:30 PM ET Game# 209-210 Play On: Liberty +5.0 (5*) Georgia Southern (7-5) has run the triple option offense very successfully for year and through a few head coaching regimes. The Eagles have run the ball on an enormous 82.5% of their offensive plays this season. The problem with running this offense is when playing from behind on the scoreboard it’s not built to overcome deficits via the passing game. Specifically speaking, Georgia Southern is averaging just 11 pass attempts and 73 yards per game in the air while completing only 51.5% of those throws. The biggest difficulty when facing a triple option offense is it’s usually an only time a team will see it all year. Additionally, it’s difficult for scout teams to match the speed and precision in how it runs let alone having most times than not only a week to prepare for it. On a positive note, Liberty last played on 11/30 and will have been afforded 3 weeks to get ready defensively for what they’re about to face. Former Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze has done a great job in his first year at Liberty while leading them to a 7-5 record and it will be the Flames first ever bowl game. Liberty has seen 3 of their 5 losses this season come against Power 5 Conference teams. I look for the Flames to be the more motivated and sharper team in this matchup for reasons I just alluded to. Bet on Liberty plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-20-19 | Kent State v. Utah State OVER 67.5 | 51-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
Kent State vs. Utah State 7:30 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Over 67.5 (5*) This will be a very entertaining and high scoring game. Utah State has scored 34 points or more in 6 of their 12 game. The Aggies have also allowed 31 points or greater 6 times. Kent State has scored 30 points or more in each of their previous 4 games. The Golden Flashes defense has been porous all season and has allowed 470.7 yards per game. The total is this high for a reason. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager. |
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12-20-19 | Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show | |
Charlotte vs. Buffalo 2:00 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Buffalo -6.5 (5*) The weather forecast is calling for severe wind gusts of up to 40 MPH. With that in mind, both teams run games will be extremely important in deciding the ATS winner. If indeed that forecast is 50% accurate, it would hinder each team’s passing game in a big way. Both Charlotte and Buffalo have formidable running games. Buffalo averages a substantial 254 yards rushing per game and gains a lofty 5.0 yards per attempt. It’s not as if Buffalo will be out of their comfort zone since they’ve run the ball of 69.9% of their offensive plays this season. They’ll also be going up against a Charlotte defense which isn’t very good at defending the run. Charlotte has allowed 193 yards rushing per game and opponents are averaging 5.0 yards per run. Conversely, Buffalo’s defense has been very vulnerable to their opponents passing games. However, the Bulls are allowing just 93 yards per game on the ground and limiting teams to a mere 2.9 yards per rushing attempt. Regardless of the weather, Charlotte has run the ball on 62.1% of their offense plays this season and would be hard pressed to come close to that number on a calm day. Bet on Buffalo minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy -10.5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 69 h 27 m | Show | |
Army vs Navy 3:00 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Navy -10.5 (5*) Army got off to a fast 3-1 start to the season. Their only defeat in that sequence came at #14 Michigan 24-21 in overtime. The Black Knights were a sizable 21.0-point underdog in that contest. Following that nice beginning to the season, Army surprisingly lost their next 5 games. The Black Knights haven’t defeated a team that currently owns a winning record. As a matter of fact, their 5 wins came against teams with a combined record of 17-43 (.283). Furthermore, 2 of their 5 wins came over FCS teams in Morgan State (3-9) and VMI (5-7). Navy has enjoyed a fantastic 9-2 season heading into this huge rivalry game. The #23 ranked Midshipmen own quality wins over SMU (10-2) and Air Force (10-2). They finished a stellar 7-1 in the American Athletic which is conference which currently has 3 teams (Navy, Cincinnati, Memphis) ranked in the Top 25 of the latest college football playoff rankings and another in SMU (10-2) who sits on the periphery. The Middies are scheduled for a Sun Bowl appearance against Kansas State from the Big 12 who handed #4 Oklahoma their only loss to date. Dating back to last season, Navy has gone 8-1 ATS in their previous 9 games as a favorite, and that includes 7-0 ATS (+25.4 PPG) as a favorite of 4.0-points or greater. Bet on Navy minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-07-19 | Wisconsin +16.5 v. Ohio State | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State 8:00 PM ET Game# 119-120 Play On: Wisconsin +16.5 (5*) It’s highly probable, if 12-0 Ohio State were to get upset by 10-2 Wisconsin, they would still be part of the college football playoffs. My point being is the level of urgency for a decisive margin of victory so to impress the playoff committee isn’t the same as it were be for #5 Utah or #6 Oklahoma. Wisconsin will be out to revenge a 38-7 loss at Ohio State earlier this season. Their vaunted rushing attack was held to 84 yards on that day which is substantially below its season average. As a matter of fact, since that loss to Ohio State, Wisconsin has won 4 straight and their offense averaged 36.0 points scored and 503.5 yards of total offense per contest which includes 299.0 yards on the ground. The Badgers have outrushed their opponents by a sizeable 147 yards per game this season. Any college football neutral field underdog (Wisconsin) that’s outrushing its opponents by 100 or more yards per game, resulted in those underdogs going 36-11 ATS (76.6%) since 2015. Those 47 underdogs also won 27 of those contests straight up. Bet on Wisconsin plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-07-19 | Virginia v. Clemson -28 | 17-62 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show | |
Virginia vs. Clemson 7:30 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Clemson -28.0 (5*) Those of you that have followed me over the years are very much aware of my reluctance to lay this big of a number. Nevertheless, this is an exception to that practice. Clemson has felt disrespected since the 2019 college football playoff rankings began. You can look for the Tigers to come out with a strong effort on Saturday night against a Virginia team playing in its first ever ACC Championship Game. Furthermore, Virginia is coming off last week’s emotional 39-30 win over Virginia Tech. That victory snapped a 14-game losing streak to their bitter in state rival. Earning a spot in the conference championship game seemed to be an afterthought after getting the proverbial monkey off their back. Clemson is a perfect 12-0 thus far, and that includes going an extremely profitable 9-3 ATS. As a matter of fact, the Tigers are 5-0 ATS this season as a favorite of 28.0 to 42.0-points and they won by a massive average of 45.2 points per contest. They’ve also outscored their 8 ACC opponents by 35.7 points per game. This will be Clemson’s 5th trip the ACC Championship Game in as many years. Clemson has scored 38 points or more in each of their previous 8 games. Any college football favorite of 23.5 to 31.0 that coming off 5 consecutive game in which they scored 37 points or more, resulted in those sizable favorites going 30-6 ATS (83.3%) since 1995. Bet on Clemson minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-07-19 | Georgia v. LSU OVER 55.5 | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
Georgia vs. LSU 4:00 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Over 55.5 (10*) Georgia’s defense is elite as evidenced by the giving up just 10.4 points and 257.1 yards per game this season. However, they will be facing the best offense in the country on Saturday with all things being considered. LSU has scored 42 points or more in 10 of 12 games this season on their way to an unblemished 12-0 record and #1 ranking. The Tigers are averaging a robust 48.7 points and 560.4 yards per game. Conversely, the LSU defense has been vulnerable at time. The Tigers stop unit has allowed 37 points or more 4 times and permitted its opponents to amass 530 yards or more of total offense on 3 separate occasions. I like the combined score to reach 60 points or greater in this SEC Championship Game. Bet on this contest to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-07-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State -6 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 40 h 50 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette @ Appalachian State 12:00 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Appalachian State -6.0 (5*) UL-Lafayette enters this conference title game on a 6-game win streak and all those victories came over Sun Belt opponents. This current hot streak enabled them to finish their regular season slate with an impressive 10-2 (.833). As a matter of fact, their last loss occurred on 10/9 at home when they fell 17-7 to Appalachian State. Appalachian State closed out their regular season with last Saturday’s 48-13 blowout win at Troy. That triumph improved their season record to an outstanding 11-1 (.917) and kept them alive to be the Group of 5 representative in a New Year’s Day Bowl game. Any conference home favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 (Appalachian State) that’s coming off a conference win by 6 points or more, and they own a win percentage of .750 or better, Versus an opponents that’s coming off conference win in each of their previous 3 games played, and they (UL-Lafayette) possess a win percentage of .700 to .909, resulted in those home favorites going 34-3 ATS (91.9%) since 1996. Bet on Appalachian State minus the points for a 5* wager. |