Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-16-21 | Purdue +12 v. Iowa | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
Purdue @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: Purdue +12.0 (5*) Iowa is coming off a comeback win at home last Saturday versus then #4 Penn State and had to overcome a 17-3 deficit to do so. However, they were very fortunate that Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford was injured in that game, and from that point on the excellent Iowa defense was able to close the gates. Last week’s game received a fair share of hype and attracted national attention. I am looking at Iowa being vulnerable physically and mentally this week against a middle of the road conference opponent. Purdue will be playing with rest after sustaining disappointing 20-13 home loss to Minnesota 2 weeks ago. That defeat dropped their season record to a still respectable 3-2. The Iowa defense has received penty of praise and rightfully so. Nonetheless, the Purdue stop unit has flown under the radar while allowing just 15.4 points and 299.6 yards per game. As good as Iowa has been this season, their offense has amassed only 303 yards or fewer in 4 of 6 games. The Boilermakers have defeated Iowa in 3 of the last 4 meetings and were 3-0 ATS as an underdog in those matchups. Bet Purdue plus the points. |
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10-16-21 | Texas A&M v. Missouri +9 | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
Texas A&M @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET Game# 171-172 Play On: Missouri +9.0 (5*) Texas A&M is coming off last week’s huge upset win as a 18.5-point home underdog over then top ranked Alabama. Despite that colossal upset, the Aggies are just 1-2 in SEC action while allowing 28.0 points and 467.7 yards per game. The one thing that 3-3 Missouri has done consistently well this season is move the football. The Tigers are averaging 37.8 points scored and 467.0 yards gained per game. Another potential contributing factor to the home underdog covering this contest is turnovers. Missouri has +4 turnover margin thus far while Texas A&M is at -4. I’m looking for A&M to not even come close to matching their intensity they displayed at home versus Alabama last week. The college football betting angle below further supports that prediction. Any college football conference home underdog of 11.5 or less, versus an opponent (Texas A&M) with a win percentage of .800 or worse that’s coming off a conference home underdog of 10.0 to 22.0 points straight up win, resulted in those conference home underdogs going 20-3 ATS (87%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 20-11 SU in those contests. Bet Missouri plus the points. |
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10-16-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 32-24 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 173-174 Play On: Texas -3.5 (10*) #25 Texas (4-2) hosts #12 Oklahoma State (5-0). Despite being the lower ranked team and having 2 losses they find themselves as a favorite versus unbeaten Oklahoma State. I firmly believe that Oklahoma State is a fraudulent #12 ranked team. All 5 of their wins have come by 14 points or fewer and their average margin of victory has come by just 6.8 points per contest. That’s especially concerning when looking at their first 2 games which were home wins over Missouri State (FCS team) by 7 and Tulsa (2-4) by 5. The Longhorns only losses this year came versus #17 Arkansas and #4 Oklahoma. The 55-48 loss to Oklahoma last week was a tough pill to swallow considering they squandered a 21-point lead in that contest. On a positive note, the Texas offense has ben red-hot over their last 3 contests while averaging 50.0 points scored and 523.0 yards gained per game. By the way, Texas has gone 22-2 SU and 16-8 ATS over the last 24 season in games immediately following Oklahoma. Since 2019, the Longhorns are 5-0 SU at home following a loss and won by 19.8 points per game. Through their first 6 games Texas has a +5 turnover margin while Oklahoma State is -2. Texas is 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 39.0 points per game. Bet Texas minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-09-21 | LSU +2.5 v. Kentucky | 21-42 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
LSU @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 359-360 Play On: LSU +2.5 (5*) Kentucky is coming off a huge home upset win over Florida last week which improved their season record to 5-0 recorded and catapulted them to a #16 ranking. Now they’ll be facing unranked LSU (3-2) and have #2 Georgia on deck and as only a short favorite on their home field. By the way, LSU will be looking to bounce back after a 24-19 home upset loss to Auburn last week. This looks like a prime spot for the underdog LSU Tigers to come up big. Bet LSU plus the points. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan @ Nebraska 7:30 PM ET Game# 381-382 Play On: Nebraska +3.0 (10*) #9 Michigan is coming off convincing 38-17 win at Wisconsin in a game they closed as a 2.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 5-0. Conversely, Nebraska is coming off a 56-7 home blowout win over Nebraska which evened their record at 3-3. Yet, the undefeated and #9 Wolverines are just a 3.0-point favorite versus an unranked team with a .500 record. It’s just never that easy and the college football betting angle listed below exemplifies just that. Play against college football favorite of 4.0 or less (Michigan) that’s playing in Game 6 and has a 5-0 record, and they’re coming off a game in which it covered by 8.5 points or more, versus an opponent (Nebraska) with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those undefeated small favorites going 0-8 SU&ATS since 1985. The underdog won all 8 games straight up by an average of 8.4 points per contest. Furthermore, any college football home underdog that’s coming off a conference win by 35 points or more is 12-0 ATS since 2017. Those underdogs also won 9 of those contests straight up. Their 3 SU losses came by a combined 5 points. Bet on Nebraska plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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10-09-21 | UTSA v. Western Kentucky -3 | 52-46 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Western Kentucky 7:00 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Western Kentucky -3.0 (5*) This is an extremely fishy line when you consider that Western Kentucky is 1-3 and is the favorite over a UTSA team who’s 5-0. One thing is for sure, the Western Kentucky offense is explosive. They have averaged 39.0 points scored and 52.5 yards gained per game. That includes piling up 560 yards of total offense in last week’s 48-31 loss at #11 Michigan State. Their other defeats came at Army 38-35 and versus Indiana 33-31. During its last 2 games, UTSA gave up 329 yards passing to Memphis and 316 to winless UNLV. That is problematic for the Roadrunners defense since it will be facing an opponent on Saturday that has passed for 365 yards or more in all 4 games they’ve played and includes 435 yards or more in 3 of those contests. Bet Western Kentucky minus the points. |
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10-09-21 | SMU -13 v. Navy | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
SMU @ Navy 3:30 PM ET Game# 353-354 Play On: SMU -13.0 (5*) If there was any chance of #24 SMU (5-0) overlooking Navy that was put to rest after the Midship upset UCF last week as a 15.0-point home underdog. Additionally, that was Navy’s first victory of the season after beginning with 3 losses. SMU is explosive yet balanced offensively. The Mustangs average 40 runs and 38 passes per game while averaging 42.6 points scored and 532.6 yards gained per contest. SMU will be able to score at will in this contest and jump out to a comfortable lead. That will take Navy out of their offensive comfort zone of running the ball successfully and chewing up clock to shorten games against teams with more talent. Bet on SMU minus the points. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +4.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Rutgers 12:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Rutgers +4.5 (5*) Rutgers has the unenviable task of going through a tough stretch of games after facing #7 Ohio State (4-1) last week and #9 Michigan (5-0) prior to that. They more than held their own in Ann Arbor in a 20-13 loss. However, last week was a different story as they were blown out at home by Ohio State 52-13. Yet, they find themselves as just a 5.5-point home underdog on Saturday versus #11 and undefeated Michigan State (5-0). We’ve already witnessed the public’s overreaction as they’ve wagered heavily on Michigan State. Yet we’ve seen little line movement from the opening number. Bet on Rutgers plus the points. |
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10-02-21 | Indiana +12.5 v. Penn State | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Indiana +12.5 (5*) Indiana is off to a disappointing 2-2 start when considering they were ranked #16 in the preseason polls. They will be facing a tough task on Saturday on the road at #4 Penn State. However, the Hoosiers are 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 versus the Nittany Lions including last season’s thrilling 36-35 win at home. Their 2 SU losses to the Nittany Lions came by narrow margins of 5 and 7 points in games they were a double-digit underdog on each occasion. Penn State has a couple of quality wins thus far over Wisconsin 16-10 and Auburn 28-20. Here’s the kicker, up next for Penn State is a road game at #5 Iowa (5-0). This has all the earmarks of a flat spot for Penn State and a much closer game than most will anticipate. Bet Indiana plus the points. |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: Baylor +4.0 (5*) Oklahoma State enters this contest with a perfect 4-0 record and ranked 19th in the country. However, their 4 wins have come by a combined 24 points or an average victory margin of 6.0 points per contest. #21 Baylor is also 4-0 and coming off an upset win over Iowa State as a 7.0-point home underdog. Baylor is allowing just 15.8 points and 290.3 yards per game. This 2021 version Oklahoma State football isn’t as talented or dynamic offensively as they’ve been in recent years. This game will go right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever to see Baylor pull off an outright upset. Nevertheless, I won’t get greedy and will graciously accept the points being afforded to me. Bet on Baylor plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-02-21 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -124 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -124 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
Michigan @ Wisconsin 12:00 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Wisconsin -124 (Money Line) (10*) So let me get this straight, we have the #14 ranked team (Michigan) with a perfect 4-0 record as an underdog versus an unranked 1-2 opponent (Wisconsin). This game has trap and sucker play written all over it. This is a prime example of why thinking like a bookmaker is advantageous. Since the start of the 2013 season, Wisconsin has enjoyed on of the best home field advantages in college football over that time. During that span of time, Wisconsin has gone 46-8 (85.2%) straight up at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. That superb straight up home record takes on added significance to me since the oddsmakers have deemed this to be an evenly matched contest based on the opening and current point-spread. Keep in mind, Wisconsin is 1-2 but their losses came against #4 Penn State and #9 Notre Dame. Michigan will be in their 1st road game of the season after opening with 4 straight home wins. The Wolverines have been an extremely run heavy team this season with 74.2% of their offense plays from scrimmage being rushing attempts. They certainly have attained a great deal of success with that formula while averaging 291.0 rushing yards per game and an impressive 6.3 yards per attempt. However, they will be facing a Wisconsin defense that’s been dominant against the run so far. The Badgers are holding opponents to a mere 23 rushing yards per game and 1.0 yard per attempt. The Badgers ability to neutralize Michigan’s potent running game will be the key to victory. Bet on Wisconsin for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-02-21 | Duke v. North Carolina -19.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
Duke @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: North Carolina -19.5 (5*) For starters we have a North Carolina team that’s 2-2 as a 20.0-point favorite over a 3-1 opponent (Duke). That speaks volumes to me and especially so in a huge rivalry game. North Carolina was shocked last week as a 14.5-point road favorite during a 45-22 road loss to Georgia Tech. The last time the Tar Heels were upset was in their season opener at Virginia Tech. They followed that up with 2 home blowout wins over Georgia State 59-0 and Virginia 59-39. In which they combined for 1306 yards of total offense. I look for another huge offensive performance for North Carolina on Saturday against a Duke defense that allowed 33 points and 507 yards to an immensely weak Kansas team. Duke enters this game on a 3-game win streak after being upset in their season opener at Charlotte. Nonetheless, those wins came over the likes of North Carolina A&T, Northwestern, and Kansas. Northwestern and Kansas are a combined 0-5 versus FBS opponents this season, and North Carolina A&T (1-2) who plays at the FCS level. Not exactly the who’s who of college football. Bet North Carolina minus the points. |
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10-02-21 | Texas v. TCU +4.5 | 32-27 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
Texas @ TCU 12:00 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: TCU +4.5 (5*) I put this one in the line doesn’t make sense category. When that occurs my mind automatically shifts to a contrarian mindset and a bookmaker’s mentality. We have a Texas team that’s 3-1 and their only loss came at #8 Arkansas. The Longhorns were dominant in each of the last 2 weeks with wins over Texas Tech 70-35 and 58-0 versus Rice. Conversely TCU is coming off an upset loss to SMU in a game they were a 9.0-point home favorite. The week before that the Horned Frogs barely escaped with a 2-point win over California while failing to cover as a 12.0-point home favorite. Furthermore, Texas will be playing with revenge stemming from losses to TCU in each of the past 2 season. The sports books just aren’t that generous. Any conference home team (TCU) with a winning record, and they’re facing an opponent (Texas) with a win percentage of .600 to .800 who coming off a conference win by 10 points or greater, resulted in those home teams going 59-16 (78.7%) straight up since 2018. This college football straight up betting algorithm supports the underdog in this matchup and makes this wagering angle far more significant. Bet on TCU plus the points. |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland +3.5 | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Maryland 8:00 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Maryland +3.5 (5*) So let me get this right, we have the #5 ranked team (Iowa) in the country as just a 3.5-point favorite over an unranked opponent. Which means if the game was being played in Iowa City the #5 Hawkeyes would be only be about a 9.5-point favorite. I unequivocally trust the oddsmakers compared to the pollsters. Based on that previous statement, the sportsbooks are begging you to take the highly ranked team as a short favorite over their unheralded opponent. By the way, despite being unranked, Maryland is 4-0 and averaging more than 500 yards of total offense per game. The Terrapins will be facing a tough task against an Iowa defense which is allowing only 11.0 points and 271.5 yards per game. However, the Iowa offense leaves much to be desired while averaging a mere 293.0 yards per game. Bet Maryland plus the points. |
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09-25-21 | Colorado v. Arizona State -14 | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 32 h 28 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Arizona State 10:30 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Arizona State -14.0 (5*) #19 Arizona is coming off a 27-17 upset loss at #15 BYU (3-0). So, the Sun Devils figure to be in a sour mood against a Colorado team which has looked inept offensively to start the season. The Buffaloes are 1-2 with their only win coming versus Northern Colorado. In their only 2 games against FBS opponents they lost 10-7 to Texas A&M and 30-0 at home versus Minnesota. Additionally, they only had 260 yards of total offense versus Texas A&M and an abysmal 63 yards against Minnesota. By the way, through their first 3 games, the Sun Devils defense is allowing just 17.0 points and 246.7 yards per game. The Sun Devils offense has topped the 400 yards of total offense barrier in all 3 games. Bet on Arizona State minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-25-21 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -17 | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 54 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Oklahoma 7:30 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Oklahoma -17.0 (5*) Since the start of last season, West Virginia has gone a perfect 7-0 at home and that includes last week’s win over then #15 Virginia Tech. However, during that identical time span, they went 0-5 on the road and that includes a season opening 30-24 loss at Maryland. The critics have been harsh on #4 Oklahoma despite their 3-0 record. The basis behind those negative remarks revolves around the Sooners only 2 games played against FBS opponents. They narrowly escaped in their season opener at home with 40-35 win over Tulane in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Then last week they entertained Nebraska (1-2) and barely got by with a 23-16 win as a 22.5-point favorite. Nonetheless, since 2014, Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS versus West Virginia with an average victory margin of 21.5 points per game. Oklahoma is also +2 in the turnover department while West Virginia is a dismal -6 throughout their first 2 games. Bet on Oklahoma minus the points. |
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09-25-21 | UCLA v. Stanford +4.5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
UCLA @ Stanford 6:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Stanford +4.5 (10*) After earning a huge victory over LSY 2 weeks ago, UCLA followed that up with a 40-37 loss to Fresno State as a 10.5-point home favorite. Fresno State exposed the UCLA defense last week by racking up 569 yards of total offense. The UCLA defense has been particularly vulnerable in their last 2 games with Fresno State and LSU amassing a combined 785 yards passing against them. After losing their season opener 24-7 versus Kansas State, Stanford has won their last 2 over USC and Vanderbilt on the road. On the last Saturday in September, Stanford finally will play its home opener. They will be ready. Bet on Stanford plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-25-21 | Louisville v. Florida State +2 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Florida State 3:30 Game# 267-268 Play On: Florida State +2.0 (5*) Florida State is 0-3 for the first time since 1976, and that includes a home loss 2 weeks ago to Jacksonville State who plays at the FCS level. The Seminoles were plagued by an alarmingly high 10 turnovers during those 3 defeats and 6 of those came in last week’s 35-14 loss at Wake Forest. Yet, they find themselves as just a 2.0-point underdog versus a Louisville team that just upset Central Florida in a nationally televised home game. After losing both home games to start the season and each by a narrow 3-point margin, I look for Florida State to roar back with a vengeance against a Louisville team that may potentially be overconfident and not mentally sharp. Bet on Florida State plus the small number. |
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09-25-21 | Iowa State -7 v. Baylor | 29-31 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Baylor 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*) Baylor is off to a fast 3-0 start but finds itself a touchdown home underdog against 2-1 Iowa State. We must keep in mind Iowa State’s lone defeat came against #6 Iowa in a game they beat themselves. The Cyclones outgained Iowa in that contest 339-173 but turned the ball over 4 times while not forcing any giveaways. Iowa State rebounded during last week’s 48-3 road win at UNLV. Through its first 3 contests, the Iowa State defense is allowing 13.3 points and 192.7 yards per game, and all those outings went under the total. Baylor’s 3 wins have come against Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Not exactly a killer schedule. Any college football road favorite of 3.5-10.0 that is coming off 3 consecutive games going under the total, and they’re allowing 14.0 points or fewer per game, resulted in those favorites going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 1992. The average line in those 39 contests was 6.2 and the average victory margin was 16.6 points per game. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | 37-17 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
Wake Forest @ Virginia 9:36 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Virginia -4.0 (5*) Wake Forest has started 3-0 but their wins have come over Norfolk State (FCS team), Florida State (0-3), and Old Dominion (1-2). Additionally, all 3 of those wins occurred at home. So, they haven’t exactly played a killer schedule thus far, and Virginia will unequivocally be their toughest test to this point. The Demon Deacons have also been beneficiaries of a +5 turnover differential thus far. Virginia is coming off a 59-39 loss at North Carolina. The Virginia defense was embarrassed in that contest while allowing North Carolina to rack up 699 yards of total offense. Wake Forest has neither the dynamic passing game that North Carolina possesses, nor do they have a quarterback the caliber of Sam Howell. I also look for Virginia’s defense to bounce back with a more determined effort on Friday. On a positive note, the Virginia passing game has been terrific through their first 3 games while averaging a robust 438 yards per contest. The Cavaliers are also averaging 41.3 points scored per game. Since the start of the 2018 season, Virginia has gone 20-2 straight up at home, and that includes a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less with an average victory margin of 17.5 points per game. Bet on Virginia minus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Fresno State +11 v. UCLA | 40-37 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ UCLA 10:45 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Fresno State +11.5 (10*) UCLA is coming off a huge 38-27 upset win at home over LSU which has catapulted them to a #13 national ranking. Following Saturday’s non-conference game versus Fresno, the Bruins have their PAC-12 opener versus Stanford up next. This has the earmarks of a flat spot for a UCLA program doesn’t possess much if any experience of handling success under current head coach Chip Kelly. If you think Fresno State is going to be intimidated on the road against #13 UCLA, then think again. The Bulldogs already traveled to #4 Oregon 2 weeks ago and that contest was tied 21-21 into the 4th quarter before they fell short in a 31-24. Nonetheless, they easily covered that game as an 18.0-point underdog. That’s the same Oregon team that went to then #2 Ohio State last week and knocked them off which ended the Buckeyes 22-game home winning streak. Throughout their first 3 game, the Fresno State defense is allowing a mere 3.6 yards per play. Conversely, their offense has been efficient led by unheralded quarterback Jake Haener who has completed 73.6% of his passes while throwing for 1009 yards and 8 touchdowns against 0 interceptions through their first 3 contests. Bet on Fresno State plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-18-21 | Virginia v. North Carolina -7.5 | Top | 39-59 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
Virginia @ North Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: North Carolina -7.5 (5*) Virginia has got off to a 2-0 start with blowout home wins over William and Mary 43-0 and Illinois 42-14. However, the competition is about to get substantially tougher in their ACC opener on Saturday at #24 North Carolina. The Tar Heels know if they hope to contend for an ACC title like many expected, they can ill afford to lose this contest after being upset at Virginia Tech in their season opener. North Carolina will also be playing with big time revenge after losing their last 4 against Virginia. On a positive note, the Tar Heels defense which has been their enigma in recent seasons allowed just 296 and 271 yards in their first 2 games. I look for an inspired effort and convincing win from North Carolina on Saturday. Bet on North Carolina minus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Charlotte +5 v. Georgia State | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ Georgia State 7:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Charlotte +5.0 (5*) Georgia State has started the season with blowout losses to Army 43-10 and North Carolina 59-17. The failed to cover on each occasion and by a combined 52.0 points. They were also outgained in total yards those 2 contests by a combined 963-448. Charlotte opened the season with an upset win over Duke 31-28. They followed that up with an easy 38-14 win over Gardner Webb and covered as a 23.5-point favorite. They averaged 477.0 yards of total offense in those victories. Charlotte will have success running the ball against Georgia State and that will be the key to us covering. Bet on Charlotte plus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Utah v. San Diego State +8.5 | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Utah @ San Diego State 7:00 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: San Diego State +8.5 (5*) San Diego State is coming off a 38-14 blowout win at Arizona in a game they closed as a 1.5-point underdog. That’s the same Arizona team that lost by 5 of BYU in their season opener. Lastly, BYU defeated Utah 26-17 last Saturday as a 7.0-point home underdog in a bitter in state rivalry game. This also presents a rare opportunity for San Diego State (2-0) to defeat PAC-12 teams in consecutive weeks. Any college football home team (San Diego State) that’s coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Utah) coming off a road SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 25.0 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 36-3 (92.3%) straight up since 2017. That straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it back the better than 1 touchdown home underdog in this matchup. By the way, those home teams were also 31-6-2 ATS in those games as well. Bet on San Diego State plus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana +4 | 38-24 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ Indiana 12:00 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Indiana +4.0 (5*) This opening line was extremely fishing with #8 Cincinnati being installed as just a 3-point favorite at Indiana. Just as I expected, public bettors were lured in by the sportsbooks bait and jumped all over the nationally ranked Bobcats. Thus, the number at the time of this writing was either 3.5 or 4.0 depending on where you look. Taking the road favorite in this spot has sucker play written all over it. Cincinnati sleepwalked through the 1st half of their home game last week against an FCS team Murray State, and it resulted in a 7-7 tie at intermission. Ultimately Cincinnati pulled away in the 2nd half to prevail 42-7 while failing to cover as a 36.5-point favorite. Nonetheless, it was a less than inspiring performance and they were greatly benefitted by 4 Murray State turnovers. Now they’ll face an Indiana team that was blown out 34-6 in their season opener at #5 Iowa. So why shouldn’t we expect a similar result versus the 8th ranked Bobcats? Because it’s never that easy my friends. Furthermore, Cincinnati could be caught looking past Saturday to next week’s trip to South Bend where they’ll take on #10 Notre Dame. It’s worth noting that Indiana began the season ranked #16 and with high hopes of being a Big 10 sleeper. An upset of Cincinnati would surely get them back into the Top 25, not to mention being a major confidence booster. Additionally, the 34-6 final score at Iowa was a bit askew since the Hawkeyes returned 2 interceptions for touchdowns, and they held the Hawkeyes to just 233 yards of total offense. That was the same Iowa team that won at #9 Iowa State last week as a 4.0-point underdog. Bet on Indiana plus the points. By the way, Indiana bounced back with a 56-14 blowout win over Idaho. Any non-conference college football home team (Indiana) that coming off a win by 35 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Cincinnati) who allowed 14 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 51-11 (82.2%) straight up since 2012. This straight up betting angle takes on added value because it supports the home underdog. Bet on Indiana plus the points. |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -116 | 29 h 44 m | Show | |
Washington @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Washington +7.0 (5*) Michigan figures to be a heavily bet side in this matchup because bettors tend to remember what happened the week before, and seldom look at any other factor. Washington was shocked last week in a 13-7 loss to Montana in a game they were a 22.0-point home favorite. If there’s such a thing of a team looking past their season and home opener, then Washington was a text back example of such. Conversely, Michigan is coming off an impressive 47-14 blowout win over Western Michigan, and easily covered as a 16.0-point home favorite. Wolverine fans were ecstatic with the performance of their offense that racked up 551 total yards. However, that was against a team that plays in a conference (MAC) where defense has historically been an afterthought, and high scoring games occur in regularity. Washington’s defense will keep them in the game, and their offense will do enough to stay within the number, and possibly even pull off an outright upset. Nonetheless, I won’t get greedy and take the points afforded to me. Bet on Washington plus the points. |
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09-11-21 | Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 56 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
Missouri @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Over 56.0 (5*) Both teams showed some offensive explosiveness in their season openers. Kentucky produced 554 yards of total offense in their 45-10 win over UL-Monroe. The Wildcats won by that lopsided margin despite being a -3 in the turnover department. They won’t have the luxury of playing against an inept offense like UL-Monroe that was only able to register 87 total yards for the entire game. The Missouri offense will be an exponentially tougher challenge for Kentucky’s defense. The Tigers recorded 468 yards of offense in last week’s 34-24 win over Central Michigan. The Tigers were well balanced offensive in gaining 211 yards on the ground and 257 through the air. However, on a negative note, Missouri’s defense allowed Central Michigan to rack up 474 yards of total offense including 301 via their passing game. That’s a concern against a Kentucky team that passed for 419 yards last week. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
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09-11-21 | North Texas v. SMU OVER 73 | 12-35 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
North Texas @ SMU 7:00 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Over 73.0 (5*) This is a high number for a reason and that’s not going to deter me in any way, shape, or form from placing my wager. Both teams are coming off season opening wins over FCS opponents in which they combined to score 100 points and amass 1017 yards of total offense. Additionally, North Texas allowed their opponent Northwestern State to rack up 418 yards of total offense. Both teams playing at warp speed on offense evidenced by North Texas running 76 plays and SMU 73 in their season openers. These teams have met in each of the previous 4 seasons with final scores of 65-35, 49-27, 46-23, and 54-32. If you’re keeping score at home, that calculates to a combined 82.3 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
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09-11-21 | Appalachian State +9 v. Miami-FL | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
Appalachian State @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 357-358 Play On: Appalachian State +9.0 (10*) It’s no shame to lose to Alabama like Miami did last week. However, it’s the manner the then #14 ranked Hurricanes were defeated makes them mentally fragile heading into this contest. Miami lost that contest 44-13 and were outgained in total yards by a decisive 501-264 margin. Quite frankly, Nick Saban called of the dogs or this result could’ve been much uglier for Miami. Now they’ll face a Sun Belt Conference Game team and knowing that Michigan State is up next at home. This doesn’t set up to be an advantageous spot for the better than 1 touchdown favorite to cover. Additionally, Miami is just a middle of the road 13-9 in their last 22 games. Appalachian State is coming off last week’s season opening 33-19 home win over East Carolina in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. The Mountaineers exhibited an impressively balanced offense attach while amassing 226 rushing yards and 259 through the air. This is an Appalachian State football program that’s gone 52-11 (.825) straight up during its previous 63 games played. Furthermore, throughout that successful stretch they were only an underdog 9 times and covered on 6 of those occasions. Any college football non-conference underdog of 4.0 to 9.5 that’s coming off a non-conference win in which they allowed 19 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Miami) who has won 19 or fewer of their previous 22 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 17-0 ATS since 2017. |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Notre Dame @ Florida State 7:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: Florida State +7.0 (5*) It will being an emotional night in Tallahassee. Not only will it be the Seminoles home opener, but they’ll be honoring the late great Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden who recently passed away. Additionally, it will mark the return of former Central Florida quarterback Mackenzie Milton who’s now a Florida State Seminole. Milton hasn’t played since sustaining a gruesome injury 3 years ago but will be under center tonight. If Milton can stay healthy and is anywhere near as good as he was as in his freshmen year at Central Florida, the Seminoles experienced offense will take a huge step forward and starting with tonight. I think Notre Dame will be very good once again this season. However, their current #9 national ranking is more about brand name and last year’s run to the College Football Playoffs. The Fighting Irish have to replace 13 starters from last year’s senior laden team and will go through some early growing pains. I am not sold on Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan who was named the starter. Coan doesn’t have the mobility nor is as good a passer as recently departed 3-year starter Ian Book. Bet on Florida State plus the points. |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +5 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
UTSA @ Illinois 7:30 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: UTSA +5.0 (10*) Just a week removed for knocking off Big 10 rival Nebraska in their opening game as a 6.5-point home underdog, Illinois finds themselves as a single-digit favorite against an opponent from Conference USA. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the chalk in this spot but I’m not being lured in by the bait. The Illini were beneficiaries of Nebraska continually shooting themselves in the foot. Specifically speaking, 9 of their points came via a fumble return for a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the half, and on a safety when a Nebraska punt returner decided to field the ball on his own 1-yard line. Additionally, Illinois has a stern road test the following week at Virginia. UTSA returns 21 starters from a team that finished 7-5 a season ago which included a bowl game loss to nationally ranked UL-Lafayette. |
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09-04-21 | Indiana +4 v. Iowa | 6-34 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET Game# 173-174 Play On: Indiana +4.0 (5*) This is an Indiana team that went 6-2 last season with their lone defeats coming by 7 at #2 Ohio State and by 6 to Ole Miss in a bowl game played without star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Hoosiers return 17 starters from that squad which includes a healthy Penix. The Hoosiers held 5 of their 7 Big 10 opponents to 21 points or fewer a season ago. They are led Big 10 and AFCA National coach of the year Tom Allen who has guided Indiana to a combined 14-7 record the past 2 seasons and includes 6-1 in the Big 10 a year ago. #17 Indiana will be more than up to the task when they travel to Iowa City on Saturday to take on the #18 Hawkeyes. Bet on Indiana plus the points. |
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09-04-21 | Penn State v. Wisconsin UNDER 50 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Wisconsin 12:00 Game# 165-166 Play On: Under 50.0 (5*) Both team’s strength will be on the defensive side of the ball. I am forecasting neither team have any degree of success running the ball. The Badgers finished last season averaging 10.0 points scored per game over their final 4 Big 10 Conference contests. The combined points in this game should be closer to 40 than 50. Bet on this contest to go under the total. |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +5.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech 6:00 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: Virginia Tech +5.5 (5*) Virginia Tech will be out to revenge last season’s 56-45 loss at North Carolina in a game they failed to cover as a short 3.0-point underdog. The Hokies had absolutely no answer against a supremely talented North Carolina offense. However, the Tar Heels lost 4 key skill position players that will be playing in the NFL this season. Granted North Carolina returns Heisman Trophy Award candidate and star quarterback Sam Howell. But he will be depending on several newcomers to replace the talented cast of characters previously mention. Furthermore, although North Carolina returns 10 defensive starters, they were a stop unit which allowed 41 points or more on 4 separate occasions last year. The 15 returning starters that return for Virginia Tech will have a bad taste in their mouth after having been part of the first Hokies team to miss a bowl game in 28 years. Since 2018, Virginia Tech has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a home underdog of 9.5 or less and averaged 37.7 points scored per game while doing so. Any college football Game 1 conference home underdog of 3.0 to 8.0 that’s playing with revenge has gone 9-0 ATS since 2011. As a matter of fact, 7 of those situations occurred last season and if those teams were a dog of 5.0 to 8.0 they went 3-0 straight up. Bet on Virginia Tech plus the points. |
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09-02-21 | East Carolina +10 v. Appalachian State | 19-33 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
East Carolina vs. Appalachian State 7:30 PM ET Game# 139-140 Play On: East Carolina +10.0 (5*) The Appalachian State returns 7 players on an offense that averaged 34 points and 450 yards per game last season. However, they will have a new quarterback. Former Clemson and Duke quarterback Chase Brice is slated to be under center for the Mountaineers. Brice did throw for over 2100 yards last year, but he had a horrible 10/15 touchdown to interception ratio while completing an uninspiring 54.2% of his passes. Despite being a highly rated and sought after quarterback coming out of high school, Brice hasn’t come close to living up to his perceived potential. East Carolina returns 20 starters from a team that went 3-6 last season. However, they did average a robust 30 points scored per game while doing so. They will be led once again by junior quarterback Holton Ahlers. All Ahlers has done is account for 7,093 career passing yard and 51 touchdown passes versus 22 interceptions. Ahlers also has amassed 1,060 career rushing yards and ran for 13 touchdowns as well. With 10 offensive returning starter, I look for East Carolina to provide us with a puncher’s chance in this game. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see an outright upset in this one. Nonetheless, let’s not get greedy and take the points. In what may end up being a seesaw affair, bet on East Carolina plus the number. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 74 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Ohio State vs. Alabama 8:00 PM ET Game# 499-500 Play On: Over 74.0 (5*) The total is this high for good reason. Alabama (12-0) has averaged 48.2 points score and 535.0 yards gained per game this season. The Crimson Tide has 2 totals this year of 74.0 or greater and both easily went over the number0. Those pair of contests resulted in wins of 63-48 versus Ole Miss and 52-46 against Florida. The Buckeyes (7-0) are 4-0-2 to the over this season when there’s been a total of 59.5 or greater. Ohio State has racked up an enormous 491 yards or more of total offense in each of their 7 games this season. Any college football team (Ohio State) with a total of 70.0 or greater that’s playing after game 7 of the season, and both defensive units in the contest are allowing 330 to 390 total yards per game, resulted in those games going 31-7 (81.6%) over the total since 1992. The average total in those 38 contests was 73.2 and there were a combined 85.6 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Ohio State vs. Alabama 8:00 PM ET Game# 499-500 Play On: Ohio State +9.0 (10*) The Buckeyes will continue to play with a chip on their shoulders tonight after being heavily criticized for making the College Football Playoff despite playing only 6 games at the time. Ohio State is one of the few and maybe even the only team in the country that can match Alabama’s offensive explosiveness. The Buckeyes defense has given up its share of yards this season, but they have also forced an eye-popping 18 turnovers in just 7 games. Ohio State has racked 254 yards or more rushing in each of its last 4 games. The Buckeyes have outrushed their opponents this season by a substantial 184 yards per game. This qualifies by a high percentage college football betting angle which is shown below. Any neutral field underdog that has rushed for 225 yards or more in each of their last 3 games, and they’re outrushing their opponents on the season by 100 or more yards per contest, resulted in those underdogs going an extremely profitable 30-7 ATS (81.1%) since 1992. The average point-spread in those 37 games was 7.1, and the underdog also won 18 of those 37 games straight up. This precise betting angle came up in the previous game for Ohio State and they came away with a 49-28 blowout win over Clemson as a 7.5-point underdog. Bet on Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina +7.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 27-41 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
North Carolina vs. Texas A&M 8:00 PM ET Game# 497-468 Play On: North Carolina +7.5 (10*) Whenever I get a winning team with an explosive offense as an underdog like North Carolina is in this contest it always prompts me to do further investigation. This situation qualifies in the regard. North Carolina is 8-3 and they averaged 43.0 points scored and 556.5 yards gained per game. They have also scored 41 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games which includes a regular season finale 62-26 win at nationally ranked Miami. I like to use the boxing analogy when it comes to these high scoring underdogs. I compare them to knockout artists in boxing, you are never out of it because you have a punchers chance. Texas A&M is 8-1, winners of 7 straight, and ranked #5 in the country. However, Aggies players and coaches alike were perplexed by being snubbed by the college football playoff committee. One school of thought is they will be out to make a statement in this matchup. In my experience, it’s quite the contrary, and college teams that have been snubbed in either football or basketball more times than not come out flatter than a pancake in their following game. This will be a textbook example of such. Bet on North Carolina plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
Oregon vs. Iowa State 4:00 PM ET Game# 495-496 Play On: Iowa State -3.5 (5*) Oregon filled in for Washington (COVID issues) in the PAC-12 Title Game and upset then 5-0 USC. However, the Ducks were only able to amass 241 yards of total offense in that win and were beneficiaries of 3 USC turnovers. Oregon also sustained 2 bad losses this season to Cal as a 9.5-point favorite and Oregon State while being a 13.5-point chalk. Conversely, Iowa State is 8-3 and all 3 of their defeats came against current Top 25 teams. This has been a special year for Iowa State football. It was their first time winning a Big 12 regular season title and they debuted in the Conference Championship Game where they fell to Oklahoma 27-21. Furthermore, Saturday will be the first time that Iowa State has ever played a January bowl game. The Cyclones will be amped up and will cover. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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01-02-21 | Ole Miss v. Indiana OVER 65 | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
Ole Miss vs. Indiana 12:30 PM ET Game# 493-494 Play On: Over 65.0 (5*) The good news for Ole Miss is they average 40 points scored per game. The bad news is they also allow 40 points per contest. Ole Miss has gone 3-0 to the over this season when there’s been a total of less than 70.0 and those contests averaged a combined 81.3 points scored per game. Conversely, Indiana has gone 4-1 to the over this season when there was a total of 53.0 or greater. To say that Ole Miss plays at a lightning quick pace is an understatement since they average 79 offensive plays per game. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager. |
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01-02-21 | Kentucky -2.5 v. NC State | 23-21 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
NC State vs. Kentucky 12:00 PM ET Game# 491-492 Play On: Kentucky -2.5 (5*) We have a Kentucky team which is 4-6 as a favorite over #23 ranked NC State who enters this bowl matchup with an 8-3 record and winners of their last 4. The line doesn’t make sense and when that occurs, I side with the oddsmakers. Case in point with my winner yesterday on Mississippi State with a losing record defeating Tulsa with a winning mark 28-26. Bet on Kentucky plus the points. Bet on Kentucky plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
Ohio State vs. Clemson 8:00 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Ohio State +7.5 (10*) For starters, Clemson head coach Dabo Sweeney gave the Ohio State locker room plenty of motivational press clippings after voicing his displeasure on Ohio State being included in the 4-team playoff field despite playing only 6 games. The Buckeyes will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from last season college football playoff loss to Clemson 29-23. Ohio State squandered a 16-0 lead in that contest and lost despite having an edge in total yards of 516-417. Ohio State also held almost a 7-minute edge in time of possession advantage and current quarterback Justin Fields outplayed highly prized Clemson signal caller Trevor Lawrence. Ohio State is allowing 97 yards rushing per game this season. Conversely, Clemson is averaging 164 yards rushing per contest. These rushing stats leads us to an extremely profitable college football betting angle which is displayed below. Any college football neutral field non-conference underdog (Ohio State) that allows 100 or less rushing yards per game and is facing an opponent (Clemson) that averages between 140 to 190 yards rushing per game, resulted in those underdogs going 22-11 (66.7%) straight up since 1992. Since this straight up betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on added relevance. Bet on Ohio State plus the points for my “College Football Game of the Year”. |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame v. Alabama UNDER 66 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
Notre Dame vs. Alabama 4:00 PM ET Game# 331-332 Play On: Under 66.0 (5*) Notre Dame has gone under the total in all 4 of their games this season when there’s been a total of 57.0 or greater. Those 4 contests had an average total of 62.3 and there was only a combined 38.8 points scored per game. Alabama has gone 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games this season that had a total of 64.0 or more. Notre Dame is averaging 218 yards rushing per game this season. Conversely, the Alabama defense has yielded only 108 yards per game rushing on the season. This leads us to an extremely profitable college football totals betting angle which is displayed below. Any college football team playing in a non-conference game that has a total of 63.0 or greater, and they average between 190 to 230 yards rushing per game, versus an opponent (Alabama) who surrenders between 100 to 140 rushing yards per contest, resulted in those games going 33-10 (76.7%) under the total since 1992. The average total in those 43 games was 68.1 and there were a combined 60.0 points scored per contest. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager. |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati +7.5 v. Georgia | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show | |
Cincinnati vs. Georgia 8:00 PM ET Game# 327-328 Play On: Cincinnati +7.5 (5*) Undefeated Cincinnati is the Group of 5 representative for the New Year’s 6 Bowl Games. Like those that came before them, the Bearcats will be a more motivated team than their SEC adversary. The Bearcats want to prove that their unblemished record is no fluke and what better way to do so than against one of the huge brands in college football. Additionally, Cincinnati has been one of the better defensive teams in all of college football while allowing just 16.0 points and 314.4 yards per game. Georgia has gone 7-2 this season but they only earned 1 win over a team that currently has a winning record and that was Auburn (6-4) way back on 10/3. Their only other games versus teams that currently have a winning record were against Florida and Alabama. They not only lost and failed to cover both games but were outscored 85-52 while doing so. Bet on Cincinnati plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-31-20 | West Virginia v. Army +7 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
Army vs. West Virginia 4:00 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: Army +7.0 (5*) Let me start by saying that I am fully aware of West Virginia having play a much more difficult schedule this season in comparison to Army. However, the Mountaineers were originally slate to play Tennessee in this bowl game, but the Volunteers had to pull out due to COVID issues. Now they are playing a service academy instead of an SEC opponent. I can’t help but think that the Mountaineers are surely disappointed in that regard and it will have a direct affect on their emotional state headed into this matchup. Furthermore, West Virginia was a perfect 5-0 in Morgantown this season but a dismal 0-4 when playing anywhere else. They averaged just a tad over 14 points scored per game in those 4 losses. Army is 9-2 with 1 of their losses coming at #6 Cincinnati 24-10. The Black Knights have allowed only 14.0 points and 271.1 yards per game this season. Additionally, West Virginia goes from playing all the pass happy offenses in the Big 12 to facing a highly efficient triple option rushing attack and having to prepare for that element on short notice. West Virginia closed their regular season with a 42-6 blowout loss at Iowa State. Conversely Army defeated Navy 15-0 and Air Force 10-7 in their final 2 regular season games. This sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle shown below. Any college football team (Army) that allowed 17 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 games and is facing an opponent (West Virginia) that scored 6 points or less during its last contest, resulted in those teams going 43-4 (91.5%) straight up since 2011. Since this straight up betting angle supports the underdog in this game it takes on added betting value. Bet on Army plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State +10 v. San Jose State | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
Ball State vs. San Jose State 2:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Ball State +10.0 (5*) These two teams ended up being surprise conference champions. San Jose State has gone 7-0 and that includes 6-0-1 ATS. However, they were an underdog in 4 of those 7 conference games and a short 2.5-point favorite in another. Ball State reeled off 6 straight wins after a season opening loss versus Miami-Ohio. The last of those wins came over Buffalo (6-1) in the MAC Championship Game and they did so as a 12.0-point underdog. As a matter of fact, the Cardinals also pulled off a double-digit underdog upset win at Toledo as well. So, they are very much comfortable in this sizable underdog role. Bet on Ball State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State +1.5 v. Tulsa | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Mississippi State vs. Tulsa 12:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Mississippi State +1.5 (5*) Mark this down in the point-spread that doesn’t make sense category. We have the #24 team in the country Tulsa (6-2) as just a 1.5-point favorite against a 3-7 Mississippi State team. Furthermore, the only 2 Tulsa losses came at the hands of #6 Cincinnati (10-0) by 3 in the AAC Championship Game and at #21 Oklahoma State (8-3). When it looks this easy in sports betting it very rarely is. This looks to be another prime example of such. Bet on Mississippi State for a 5* wager. |
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12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas OVER 64 | Top | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Texas @ Colorado 9:00 PM ET Game# 297-298 Play On: Over 64.0 (10*) This Texas team has seen all 4 of its games not played on their home field go over the total. Those 4 contests averaged a massive 97.8 points combined being scored par game. The Longhorns offense has averaged an enormous 41.3 points scored and 457.3 yards gained per game this season. Colorado is averaging a tad above 29 points scored per game. The Buffaloes defense has been good at times but has been torched on more than one occasion as well. Colorado has allowed 32 points or more in 3 of 5 games played during this COVID-19 shortened season. Texas is outgaining their opponents by an average of 47.6 yards per game this season. Conversely, Colorado has outgained their 5 opponents by an average of 44.2 yards per game. This sets up an extremely profitable college football totals betting angle displayed below. Any neutral field non-conference game with a total of 63.5 to 70.0 that involves teams that both have a +50 to -50 yards per game differential, resulted in those contests going 26-4 (86.7%) to the over since 1992. The average total in those 30 contests was 66.1 and there was a combined 79.7 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +2.5 | 37-34 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State vs. Miami 5:30 PM ET Game# 295-296 Play On: Miami +2.5 (5*) Miami quarterback D’Eriq King will be the difference in this game. The Hurricanes received a huge emotional lift when King was granted a 6th year of eligibility and will return for another season in 2021. The Hurricanes suffered 2 losses this season and they came against #2 Clemson and #13 Clemson. Oklahoma State doesn’t present the challenges as those 2 teams and that’s especially true offensively. Bet on Miami for a 5* wager. |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Liberty +7.0 (5*) Both teams are battle tested. Liberty went 2-1 versus ACC teams this season. They easily handled Syracuse 38-21, defeated Louisville 38-35 as a 17.0-point underdog, and lost 15-14 to #24 NC State. #23 Liberty (8-1) had a game tying field goal attempt blocked on the final play of the game in that loss to NC State. That’s how close they came to an undefeated regular season. Liberty has not only gone 8-1 straight up this season, but they also covered in 8 of those 9 games. The Flames offense has been extremely productive while averaging 39.4 points scored and 497.6 yards gained per game. #9 Coastal Carolina (11-0) has enjoyed a memorable and massively successful season regardless of what happens in this game. Their signature wins came over #13 BYU 22-17 and over #16 UL-Lafayette (9-1) 30-27. The Chanticleers completed their regular season barely escaping with a 42-38 win over Troy in a game they were a 12.5-point favorite, and they scored the winning touchdown in the dying seconds of the 4th quarter. Any college football underdog of 3.5 to 10.0-points (Liberty) that is coming off a conference win by 10 or more points, and they are facing an opponent who scored and allowed 30 or more points during its previous game, resulted in those underdogs going an outstanding 56-22 ATS (71.8%) since 1992. Bet on Liberty plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-26-20 | UL-Lafayette -14 v. UTSA | 31-24 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
UTSA vs. UL-Lafayette 3:30 PM ET Game# 285-286 Play On: UL-Lafayette -14.0 (5*) Just in case you are wondering why UL-Lafayette is such a substantial in this First Responder Bowl, they are 10-1 on the season while currently being ranked 19th by the college football playoff committee, and 16th nationally in the AP Poll. Their only loss this season was by 3 to #9 Coastal Carolina (11-0). Furthermore, the Rajun Cajuns opened this season off with a huge 31-14 at #12 Iowa State who just lost a close game to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. UL-Lafayette has also played the tougher schedule which included 6 teams that have accepted a bowl game invitation. Conversely, UTSA has gone just 2-4 against bowl game participants. Additionally, since 2018, the Roadrunners have gone a dismal 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21.0-points. They were outscored in those 10 contests by an average of 25.7 points per game. Bet on UL-Lafayette minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5 | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State 3:30 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Georgia State -3.5 (5*) Western Kentucky has gone just 5-6 this season and went 0-5 versus this season’s bowl teams while being outscored by 17.6 points per game. Moreover, one of their wins came by a slim 3-point margin at home versus an FCS team in UT-Chattanooga. This is also an anemic Western Kentucky offense which averaged only a mere 18.8 points and 290.9 yards per game. Georgia State is 5-4 and has averaged a healthy 32.7 points scored and 417.7 yards gained per game. As a matter of fact, the Panthers have scored 30 points or more in 7 of their 9 games this season. By comparison, today’s opponent (WKU) has scored 14 points or fewer in 6 of their 11 games. Bet on Georgia State minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston -9 | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
Hawaii vs. Houston 3:30 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Houston -9.0 (5*) Houston enters this bowl game with just a 3-4 record. Yet, they are a sizable favorite over a 4-4 Hawaii team. Simply put, the Cougars have faced a far more difficult schedule than Hawaii has. Their 4 losses all were against bowl teams in BYU (11-1), Central Florida (7-4), Tulane (6-6), and Memphis (8-3). Furthermore, Hawaii is coming off a 38-21 victory over winless UNLV. The Rainbow Warriors are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a win and lost by a decisive margin of 19.0 points per game. The game will be played in Frisco, Texas which certainly will provide Houston an edge when it comes to travel and fans in attendance. Bet on Houston minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-22-20 | Central Florida +6 v. BYU | 23-49 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
BYU vs. Central Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Central Florida +6.0 (5*) BYU comes in with an outstanding 10-1 record while UCF is 6-3. However, despite the records disparity, UCF has unequivocally played a tougher schedule. The Golden Knights suffered losses to #22 Tulsa by 8, #6 Cincinnati by just 3, and at Memphis by 1. BYU has faced just 1 nationally ranked opponent this season and they lost 22-17 at #11 Coastal Carolina in a game in which they closed as a 10-0-point favorite. I would not be shocked at all to see an outright upset in this one. Nevertheless, I will surely take the points and not be greedy. Bet on Central Florida plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-19-20 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +7.5 | Top | 46-33 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 18 m | Show |
Arizona State @ Oregon State 10:30 PM ET Game# 225-226 Play On: Oregon State +7.5 (10*) Arizona State is coming off a 70-7 shellacking over their winless in-state rival Arizona last Saturday. The Sun Devils have played just 3 games this season and last week marked its first win. Now they travel to Oregon State against a 2-4 Beavers team that in recent years has been a PAC-12 doormat. However, this is a better than advertised Beavers team whose 4 losses came by just a combined average of 6.3 points per contest. Arizona State has allowed an average of just 20 points per game this season despite surrendering 423 yards per game. The Sun Devils defense has bailed themselves out by forcing a whopping 11 turnovers in their 3 games played. However, they will be facing an opponent on Saturday which has only committed 6 turnovers in 6 games. Oregon State also averages a healthy 31.0 points and 450.3 yards per game in their 4 contests played at home. Bet on Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-18-20 | Oregon +3.5 v. USC | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 22 m | Show | |
Oregon @ USC 8:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Oregon +3.5 (5*) Oregon takes the place of Washington in this PAC-12 Title Game after the Huskies were bombarded with COVID-19 issues. In my professional opinion, the game becomes more appealing with the Ducks involved and they will matchup better against USC than Washington would have. USC is 5-0 but 3 of their wins against UCLA, Arizona, and Arizona State came by way of a winning score with less than a minute to play. Without some fortunate luck that came their way, the Trojans came very easily be 2-3 at this juncture. This line speaks volumes as well. We have an undefeated team playing on their home field as a small favorite vessus an opponent that has lost twice in a Power 5 Conference Championship game. Basically, the sportsbooks are telling you if this contest were played at a neutral site it would be the line would be a pick. Bet on Oregon plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-12-20 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | 15-33 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show | |
Virginia @ Virginia Tech 8:00 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Virginia Tech -2.5 (5*) This opening line and the ensuing movement make little if any sense at all. When that occurs, I am notorious for taking a contrarian approach and being right a lot more times than not. Virginia enters this rivalry game having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. Conversely, Virginia Tech is 0-4 SU&ATS in its previous 4 contests. Yet it’s the Hokies who opened as a 1.5-point home favorite and that line has since moved to 2.5. They are begging you to take the hot team as an underdog. I see it as a trap. Virginia Tech will be playing with revenge stemming from last season’s loss at Virginia 39-30. That defeat ended a 15- game Virginia Tech win streak over Virginia. Nevertheless, the Hokies still have a 10-game home unbeaten streak against their instate rival. Bet on Virginia Tech for a 5* wager. |
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12-12-20 | USC v. UCLA +3 | 43-38 | Loss | -113 | 48 h 50 m | Show | |
USC @ UCLA 7:30 PM ET Game# 421-422 Play On: UCLA +3.0 (5*) One team (USC/4-0) isn’t as good as their record indicates. The other (UCLA/3-2) is better than its record shows. The Trojans needed a bit of luck and improbable occurrences to occur in their first 2 games against Arizona and Arizona State. UCLA lost to currently unbeaten Colorado in their season opener. They also were narrowly defeated at Oregon 38-35 in a game they were a sizable 18-point underdog. They are a confident bunch heading into this matchup of teams playing for city bragging rights. Bet on UCLA plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-12-20 | Boise State v. Wyoming +11.5 | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 46 h 7 m | Show | |
Boise State @ Wyoming 6:00 PM ET Game# 129-130 Play On: Wyoming +11.5 (5*) Wyoming is coming off an upset loss at New Mexico 17-16. On a positive note, they have gone 2-0 SU&ATS following a loss this season. This will only the 2nd home game for the Cowboys. They were an easy 31-7 winner over Hawaii in their home opener in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. Playing a game in Laramie, Wyoming during the 2nd week of December is pretty much unchartered waters. The team who able to run the ball most effectively is likely to get the cover. I like Wyoming’s chances to do so and in turn makes them a viable home underdog betting value in this spot. Play on Wyoming plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-12-20 | Wisconsin -2 v. Iowa | Top | 7-28 | Loss | -109 | 43 h 1 m | Show |
Wisconsin @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET Game# 385-386 Play On: Wisconsin -2.0 (10*) This opening line and the following substantial line movement really caught my eye. Wisconsin opened as a 3.0-point road underdog and at the time of this writing they have moved all the way to a 2.0-point road favorite. Of curse I checked Iowa’s injury list and COVID-19 situation to see if something within those categories prompted this large of a move but there was nothing of the sort. Iowa enters this contest on a 5- game win streak. However, their wins have come over 5 Big 10 Conference opponents that enter this week with a cumulative 10-20 record and all currently have losing records. Wisconsin has lost 2 straight and scored only a combined 13 points in those defeats. However, they were plagued by 7 turnovers committed during those 2 games. Another words, they stopped themselves more so than opposing defenses did. On a positive note, the 2-2 Badgers have been outstanding on defense while allowing a mere 12.3 points and 229.3yards per game. Iowa is solid offensively, but they are far from a juggernaut. Bet on Wisconsin for a 10* Top Play. |
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12-12-20 | Georgia v. Missouri +13.5 | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 1 m | Show | |
Georgia @ Missouri 12:10 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Missouri +13.5 (5*) Let me start by saying that Georgia is unequivocally the more talented team in this matchup. However, the Bulldogs had higher aspirations before the season began than what they have attained heading into their regular season finale. Yes, they are 6-2, but they won’t be playing in the SEC Title Game and or the College Football 4-Team Playoff which was their main 2 goals. Conversely, Missouri has rebounded from an 0-2 start to win 5 of its last 6 games. By doing so they catapulted themselves into the AP Poll Top 25. Since losing their home opener to #1 Alabama, Miami has won 4 straight at home. This will be a Tigers team that will be highly motivated and inspired. Bet on Missouri plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-05-20 | Fresno State +6.5 v. Nevada | 26-37 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ Nevada 9:00 PM ET Nevada is coming off their first defeat of the season in a 24-21 upset loss at Hawaii which spoiled their surprising 5-0 start. Fresno Sate also suffered their only loss to Hawaii in their season opener. However, since that time they've gone 3-0 SU&ATS and won by 17.7 points per game. The Bulldogs also haven't played since 11/14 due to a pair of COVID-19 related cancellations. The positive thing to take away from that layoff is they should be fresh and relatively healthy. Fresno will also be out to reveng last season's 35-28 home loss to Nevada. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see an outright upset in this contest. Nonetheless, I won't get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Bet on Fresno State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-05-20 | BYU -10 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina @ BYU 5:30 PM ET This is a situation that I have to trust my eyes and professional intuition. I firmly believe that BYU could have at the very least competed for a title in any Power 5 Conference if afforded the oppotunity. Regarding strength of schedules neither of these teams rates highly. However, my personal eye test indicates that BYU is the more physical team on both sides of the ball and especially so on the interior line. BYU quarterback Zach Wilson is an NFL quarterback waiting to happen. Coastal Carolina relies heavily on their run game to move the ball with 65% of their offensive plays this season being rushing attempts. Conversely, BYU allows a mere 88 yards per game on the ground and just 2.9 yards per rushing attempt. This line speaks volumes to me with the #9 Cougars as a double-digit road favorite against the #14 and undefeated Coastal Carolina. Bet on BYU minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-05-20 | Oklahoma State v. TCU +2.5 | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ TCU 5:00 PM The Oklahoma State defense that looked so stout at the beginning of the season has exponentially regressed of late. Specifically, they allowed 41 points or greater in 3 of its last 4 games. The #19 Cowboys are 2-2 in their previous 4 games and failed to cover on each occasion. After starting 1-3, TCU has rebounded to win 3 of their last 4 games. They are coming off a 59-23 blowout win over Kansas. Any college football home team playing after Game 7 of their season, and is coming off a conference win by 35 points or more, versus an opponent (Oklahoma State) that is not undefeated, resulted in those home teams going 45-4 (91.8%) straight up since 2017. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the home underdog in this contest. Bet on TCU for a 5* wager. |
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12-05-20 | Memphis +3 v. Tulane | 21-35 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
Memphis @ Tulane 12:00 PM ET Memphis is coming off wins by scored of 56-14 and 10-7 during their previous 2 games. Conversely, Tulane is coming off a 30-24 loss to Tulsa. The combination of those 3 results sets up a an unblemished straight up betting angle displayed below. Any college football road team (Memphis) coming off 2 straight games in which they allowed 14 points or fewer, and they are facing a conference opponent (Tulane) coming off a loss by 6 points or less, resulted in those road teams going 24-0 straight up since 2013. Bet on Memphis plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-28-20 | LSU v. Texas A&M -14.5 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
LSU @ Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET Game# 235-236 Play On: Texas A&M -14.5 (10*) Thee first college football playoff rankings came out this week and 5-1 Texas A&M is #5. The Aggies can justify their ranking with a decisive win over defending national champion LSU on Saturday night. LSU is a mediocre 3-3 and is a shell of the team they were a season ago. The Tigers are coming off a gratifying 27-24 win at Arkansas. However, they are 0-2 SU&ATS this season following a win and allowed a combined 93 points in those losses to Missouri and Auburn. As a matter of fact, LSU has allowed 44 points or more and 506 yards or greater in all 3 of their losses this season. They will be facing a Texas A&M offense which has averaged 39.8 points scored and 460.0 yards gained during their current 4-gamee win streak. The Aggies only loss this season came at the hands of #1 Alabama. Texas A&M will also be out to revenge a humiliating 50-7 loss at LSU last season. The Aggies will enter this game with plenty of rest as they take the field for a first time in 3 weeks. Bet on Texas A&M minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-28-20 | Rutgers v. Purdue -11 | 37-30 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
Rutgers @ Purdue 4:00 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: Purdue -11.0 (5*) After starting the season with what was then a huge upset win at Michigan State, Rutgers has preceded to lose its next 4 games. The latest of which was a gut wrenching 48-42 home loss in overtime versus Michigan in a game they squandered a 17-0 lead. After winning their first 2 games, Purdue has lost 2 straight by narrow to #11 Northwestern 27-20, and then last week at Minnesota 34-31 in a game they outgained the Golden Gophers by 98 yards. The Boilermakers will be reenergized on Saturday with star wide receiver Rondell Moore back into the mix. In his season debut at Minnesota last week, Moore amassed 15 receptions for 116 yards. If there was a silver lining during his absence it was fellow wide receiver David Bell who has hauled in 39 catches for 425 yards and 6 touchdowns during the Boilermakers first 4 games. Bet on Purdue minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-28-20 | Auburn v. Alabama -24 | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
Auburn @ Alabama 3:30 PM ET Game# 229-230 Play On: Alabama -24.0 (5*) The Crimson Tide will also be playing with big time revenge due to a 48-45 loss at Auburn last year. The Auburn defensive unit has not been the dominant force they were in recent years evidence by the allowing 402.9 yards per game. The Tigers stop unit will bee facing an Alabama offense that averages 49.4 points scored and 548.6 yards gained per game. After a shaky start to the season, the Crimson Tide defense has been dominant over their previous 3 outings while allowing 6.7 points and 227.0 yards per game. Alabama enters this week 7-0 and as the top ranked team in the country. Additionally, there last 3 wins have com by 31 points or mor and they outscored those opponents by an enormous margin of 152-20. This sets up an extremely profitable college football ATS betting angle displayed below. Any college football home favorite of 21.5 to 31.0 that is coming off 3 straight wins by 21 points or more and is playing after Game 5 of their season, resulted in those sizable home favorites going 25-7 ATS (78.1%) since 2008. Bet on Alabama minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-28-20 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia State +0.5 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State 12:00 PM ET Game# 157-158 Play On: Georgia State (Pick) (5*) This line jumped off the page at me when I saw 4-4 Georgia State open as a small favorite versus a Georgia Southern team that is 6-3. Upon further investigation, mainly through my trusted and powerful 4D handicapping software, it certainly made sense. Georgia State is coming off a 31-14 away win over South Alabama and easily covered as a 3.5-point favorite. Georgia State enters this week having gone 14-14 straight up in their last 28 home games. This creates a powerful college football betting angle listed below. Any college football conference pick or favorite of 13.5 or less that is playing after Game 8 of their season, and they are coming off a an away favorite ATS win in which it covered by 4.0 or more, and they have won 13 or more of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent (Georgia Southern) with a win percentage of .444 or better, resulted in those home teams going 26-1 straight up (96.3%) and 24-3 ATS (88.9%) since 2017. Bet on Georgia State for a 5* wager. |
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11-28-20 | Maryland +12 v. Indiana | 11-27 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
Maryland @ Indiana 12:00 PM ET Game# 191-192 Play On: Maryland +12.0 (5*) Maryland is coming off straight up wins in their previous 2 games and both came as a double-digit underdog. This will also be a Maryland team which that is playing its first game in 3 weeks on Saturday following 2 straight cancellations due to positive COVID-19 tests. On the other hand, Indiana is coming off an emotional 7-point loss at Ohio State in a game they were a large 21.0-points underdog. The Hoosiers also expended a ton of emotional energy while rallying and nearly overcoming a 35-7 second half deficit. Prior to that they had knocked off long-time nemesis Michigan State and Michigan. Up next for the #12 Hoosiers is a date at #18 Wisconsin. Can you say flat spot? Maryland is coming off 2 consecutive wins which improved their season record to 2-1 (.667). They will be facing an Indiana team coming off a 42-35 loss at #3 Ohio State. This sets up an outstanding college football betting angle that is shown below. Any college football away underdog of 8.0 to 14.0 with a win percentage of .600 to .800, versus an opponent (Indiana) coming off a conference loss by 7 points or fewer, and that opponent (Indiana) also has a win percentage of .600 to .800, resulted in those away underdogs going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2000. Bet on Maryland plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-27-20 | Oregon v. Oregon State +13.5 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Oregon @ Oregon State 7:30 PM ET Game# 139-140 Play On: Oregon State +13.5 (5*) Despite their 1-2 record, Oregon State appears to me as an improved team compared to what we witnessed in recent seasons. Oregon State has averaged a respectable 26.4 points scored and 354 yards gained per game. Conversely, notwithstanding of their #9 ranking and 3-0 record, Oregon has shown a vulnerability defensively. The Ducks defense has allowed their first 3 opponents to rack up an average of 432.0 yards per game. Oregon State is also coming off a momentum building 31-27 home win over California in their previous outing in a game they were a 1.0-point underdog. Bet on Oregon State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-21-20 | Oklahoma State +7 v. Oklahoma | 13-41 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma 7:30 PM ET Game# 401-402 Play On: Oklahoma State +7.0 This will be the toughest defense that Oklahoma would have faced this season. The Cowboys have allowed 21 points or fewer in 5 of its 6 games this season. The only exception came in their lone loss which came in overtime versus Texas. The Oklahoma State offense has been as high scoring as we have seen under head coach Mike Gundy, but still has gained a sizable 461 yards or more in 3 of its last 4 games. Spence Sanders is a better than average quarterback and star running back Chuba Hubbard is an absolute stud. The Oklahoma defense has shown improvement from a season ago but at the same time remains vulnerable. The Sooners have allowed 37 points or greater on 3 separate occasion this year and 400 yards or more 4 times. Oklahoma State has gone a profitable 3-1 ATS in their last 4 visits to Norman. Bet on Oklahoma State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-21-20 | Liberty v. NC State -3.5 | Top | 14-15 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
Liberty @ NC State 7:30 PM ET Game# 359-360 Play On: NC State -3.5 (10*) If NC State even contemplated taking Liberty lightly all they need to do is use Virginia Tech as a lesson not to do so. Liberty went into Blacksburg earlier this season and defeated Virginia Tech 38-35 as a 17.0-point underdog. This certainly will be a bigger game for upstart Liberty while seeking their 2nd win over a Power 5 Conference school this season. However, NC State has unequivocally played the tougher schedule and combined with my previous point made should have no excuse on Saturday to come up with nothing less than a huge effort. Liberty is coming off a 58-14 blowout win over West Carolina and that improved their season record to 8-0. Conversely, Virginia Tech is coming off a 38-22 win over Florida State which now makes them 5-3 this season. The combination of this data sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle which is displayed below. Any college football home favorite of 2.0 or more that has at least 1 loss on the season, and they scored 22 points or greater during its previous game, versus an undefeated opponent that is playing after Game 8 of their season who allowed 27 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 ATS since 1990. The average margin of victory in those 12 contests was 20.3 points per game. Bet on NC State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +7.5 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
Wisconsin @ Northwestern 3:30 PM ET Game# 395-396 Play On: Northwestern +7.5 (5*) Northwestern is off to a 4-0 start which includes quality road wins at Iowa and Purdue. Wisconsin has played only 2 games due to COVID-19 outbreaks but has been extremely impressive in win over Illinois 45-7 and Michigan 49-11. However, Northwestern has held their own against Wisconsin over the past 25 years. Since 1995, Northwestern has gone 14-5 ATS against the Badgers and won 9 of those 19 encounters straight up. As a matter of fact, the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS and 3-3 straight up in their last 6 games versus Wisconsin and all under the watchful eye of current head coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Wildcats have allowed 20 points or fewer in each of their 4 games and all have come against fellow Big 10 Conference teams. They have also forced an impressive 10 turnovers during those 4 wins. Northwestern will be able to stay in this game throughout due to the stellar play of their stingy defense. I would not be shocked at all to see an outright upset in this game, but I will not be greedy or foolish and take the points. Bet on Northwestern plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida +6 | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ Central Florida 3:30 PM ET Game# 343-344 Play On: Central Florida +6.0 (5*) This will be unequivocally the best defense that UCF has faced this season. Conversely, this will also be the most dymamic offense that Cincinnati has faced so far. As a matter of fact, UCF is # in the country in total offense while gaining 619.1 yards per game. Another factor to consider in the speed of which the UCF offense plays. The Golden Knights average an enormous 87 offensive plays per game. On the other hand, the most offensive plays that the Cincinnati defense has been asked to defend this season was 85 against SMU. As a matter of fact, Cincinnati opponents this season have averaged only 71 offensive plays per game against them. Central Florida is coming off a 38-13 blowout win over Temple in their previous game. Since 2017, the Golden Knights have gone 11-0 straight up and 10-1 ATS following a game in which they allowed 14 points or fewer. Furthermore, UCF enters this week having won 25 straight home games against all team not named Tulsa. Finally, my wild card is this contest will be Central Florida quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The left-handed sophomore is averaging a plentiful 396.3 passing yards per game while throwing for 23 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions. Bet on Central Florida plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-21-20 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
Appalachian State @ Coastal Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 347-348 Play On: Coastal Carolina -4.0 (5*) Coastal Carolina is coming off a 23-6 conference win over South Alabama. That win improved their season record to a perfect 7-0. Appalachian State enters this week on a 5-game win streak and their last 4 all came against fellow Sun Belt Conference teams. Any college football conference home favorite of 3.5 to 9.0 that is coming off a conference win, and owns a win percentage of .571 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .666 or better that is coming off 3 or more wins in a row including the most recent one coming against a conference opponent, resulted in those home favorites going an outstanding 50-13 ATS (79.3%) since 1997. Bet on Coastal Carolina minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-18-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +7 | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan 7:00 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Eastern Michigan +7.0 (5*) The last 3 meeting between these teams were all decided by 5 points or fewer. Eastern Michigan is coming off back to back conference road losses by scores of 27-23 and 38-31. They covered on each of those occasions as an underdog. Toledo is coming off an excruciating 41-38 loss at Western Michigan. The Rockets inexplicably blew a 38-27 loss with less than a minute to play in that contest. That loss now makes Toledo 0-5 SU&ATS in conference away games since the start of last season. Any college football home team that is coming off conference losses by 7 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those home teams going 40-22 straight up since 2011. Considering this college football straight up betting angle backs the underdog in this game it takes on added significance. Bet on Eastern Michigan plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-14-20 | Arkansas v. Florida -17 | Top | 35-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
Arkansas @ Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Florida -17.0 (10*) At first glance when looking at this line on Monday, my initial feeling was Florida would be in for an emotional letdown after defeating Georgia for a first time in 4 tries during its previous game. However, that win catapulted them to #6 in the country, and if they aspire to be in the SEC title game or the College Football 4-team Playoff, they have no room for error. Additionally, they are going to need some style points along the way. Arkansas has been a nice story this season under first year head coach Sam Pittman. After being an SEC laughingstock for the past few seasons, the Razorbacks are a respectable 3-3 and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in those contests. It is highly improbable that Florida will overlook this game in lieu of what they have at stake and how competitive of an opponent they will be facing. Furthermore, the Razorbacks will be without head coach Sam Pittman who tested positive for COVID-19 this week. Former Missouri head coach and now Arkansas defensive coordinator will take on the temporary head coaching duties. From an emotional standpoint, that will affect the Razorbacks in some way, shape, or form. I look for Florida to make a further emphatic statement in “The Swamp” on Saturday night. Bet on Florida minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-14-20 | Miami-FL v. Virginia Tech -2 | 25-24 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Miami @ Virginia Tech 12:00 PM ET Game# 155-157 Play On: Virginia Tech -2.0 (5*) Virginia tech was a substantial 17.0-point home favorite last week as an unranked team against upstart #25 Liberty. The Hokies let their guard down and were knocked off by Liberty 38-35. Nevertheless, they has not deterred the books from making them an unranked favorite again this week and this time versus #9 Miami. The Hurricanes are enjoying a 6-1 season to this point with their lone defeat coming at Clemson. They barely escaped with a 44-41 win at NC State in their last game and needed a late rally to win as a road favorite of -11.0. The Canes have allowed an alarmingly high 39.0 points and 492.0 yards per contest throughout their 3 road games this season. They will be facing a balanced and explosive Virginia Tech offense. I look for the Hokies to bounce back with a huge effort on Saturday. Bet on Virginia Tech for a 5* wager. |
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11-14-20 | Indiana v. Michigan State +7.5 | 24-0 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Michigan State 12:00 PM ET Game# 163-164 Play On: Michigan State +7.5 (5*) Indiana is coming off an emotional 38-21 win over Michigan. In doing so, they snapped a 24-game losing streak versus Michigan and won for a first time since 1987. Now they go on the road as a touchdown favorite against a Michigan State team that was embarrassed last week during a 49-7 defeat at Iowa as just a 5.0-point underdog. Additionally, Indiana has #3 Ohio State up next. This looks like the proverbial flat spot for #10 Indiana. Bet on Michigan State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Western Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 119-120 Play On: Western Michigan -2.0 (5*) Toledo has gone an abysmal 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an away underdog, and that includes 0-7 ATS if they scored 28 points or more during their previous game. Conversely, Western Michigan has won 7 straight at home and that includes going 5-1 ATS versus FBS opponents. Western Michigan will be seeking big time revenge after going 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games against Toledo. Both teams are coming off blowout wins in their season openers played last Wednesday. Toledo defeated Bowling Green 38-3 and covered easily as a 23.5-point home favorite. Western Michigan shellacked Akron 58-13 while covering comfortably as a 20.5-point away favorite. These results set up a profitable college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football conference home favorite of 9.5 or less that is coming off a conference away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 10.0-points or more, and they are facing an opponent coming off a conference home favorite ATS win in which they also covered by 10.0 or greater, resulted in those home favorites going 21-8 ATS (72.4%) since 1984. Bet on Western Michigan plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-07-20 | Baylor v. Iowa State -13.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
Baylor @ Iowa State 7:00 PM ET Game# 345-346 Play On: Iowa State -13.5 (10*) It is clear at this point that Baylor is nowhere near the caliber of team that they were a season ago under current Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Ruhle. Iowa State is better than their present 4-2 record indicates. Iowa State is averaging 433.3 yards of total offense per game. The Cyclones are coming off a 52-22 blowout win at Kansas in a game they outgained the Jayhawks by 302 total yards. Baylor is allowing 371.8 yards per game. The combination of this data sets up a terrific college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football home favorite of between 10.5 to 21.0 points that is coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by 125 yards or more, and that home favorite is facing an opponent which is allowing between 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home favorites going 25-2 ATS since 2011. The average line in those 27 contests was 15.2 and those favorites outscored the underdogs by a substantial 24.9 points per game. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-07-20 | Florida +3 v. Georgia | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
Florida vs. Georgia 3:30 PM ET Game# 381-382 Play On: Florida +3.0 (5*) Georgia has been excellent defensively this season except in their 41-24 loss to Alabama. The Crimson Tide racked up an enormous 564 yards of total offense in that contest which included 417 through the air. Now Georgia has the task of attempting a red-hot Florida offense led quarterback Kyle Trask that has averaged 42.0 points scored and 476.5 yards gained per game. The Gators defense has been suspect thus far but they are coming of its best effort of the season in holding Missouri to 248 yards during a 41-17 win. The Gators will be playing with big time revenge after losing to Georgia in each of the previous 3 seasons. Georgia has also committed 7 turnovers over the past 3 games and has received inconsistent play from quarterback Stetson Bennett. Florida will be able to score on this stout Georgia defense and the Bulldogs will not have the offense to keep up. Bet on Florida plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-07-20 | Liberty v. Virginia Tech -16.5 | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
Liberty @ Virginia Tech 12:00 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Virginia Tech -16.5 (5*) We have an unranked team like Virginia Tech as a better than 2 touchdown chalk against an opponent like Liberty who is presently ranked #25 in the AP Poll. That tells me everything I need to know. As I have stated on many occasions over the past 2 few weeks, you should trust the oddsmakers implicitly over those who vote in college football national polls. Sure, Liberty is 5-0, but their wins have come over opponents that currently have a combined record of 4-26. The Hokies will totally outclass the upstart Liberty Flames and will cover this large number. Bet on Virginia Tech minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-07-20 | Michigan State v. Iowa -5 | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Iowa 12:00 PM ET Game# 349-350 Play On: Iowa -5.0 (5*) Michigan State is coming off a stunning upset win at in state rival Michigan last Saturday and they did so as a mammoth 21.5-point underdog. However, this is the same team which opened their season two weeks ago with an equally stunning 38-27 loss to Rutgers in a game they were a home favorite of 9.5. I say equally as stunning because Rutgers had entered that contest on a 22-game Big 10 losing streak. The Spartan committed 7 turnovers in that defeat. Iowa is currently 0-2 but those defeats came by only a combined 5 points. Additionally, those 2 losses came against Purdue and Northwestern who have begun their seasons with a cumulative 4-0 record. My handicapping software goes back to 1980 and shows Iowa never beginning a season 0-3 over that 40-year span. Iowa head coach Hayden Frye has been in his current position and same locale since 1999. During his tenure, Iowa has gone 4-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 8.5 or less following 2 consecutive losses, and they won by a decisive margin of 28.5 points per game. Bet on Iowa minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +3.5 | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
BYU @ Boise State 9:45 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Boise State +3.5 (5*) I always look find home underdogs with a strong home field. This is certainly one of those situations. Since 1987, Boise State has gone an outstanding 156-31 (.834) straight up at home. More recently, the Broncos have gone 25-3 (.893) straight up at home since 2016. BYU is 7-0 but their schedule has been far tough. Those 7 victories have come over opponents that have a current combined 18-27 (.400) and none of those games were against teams from a Power 5 Conference. Since 1999, Boise State is a very profitable 27-12 ATS (69.2%) as an underdog. Boise State is coming off 2 straight covers with both coming as a double-digit favorite. This sets up a tremendous college football straight up betting angle which is applicable to this game and supports the home underdog. Any college football home team which is coming off back to back covers as a double-digit favorite has gone 41-5 (89.1%) straight up since 2016. Bet on Boise State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-06-20 | Miami-FL v. NC State +11 | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Miami @ NC State 7:30 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: NC State +11.0 (5*) NC State is coming off a 48-21 loss at North Carolina in their previous game and failed to cover as a 16.0-point underdog. That loss dropped their season record to 4-2 (.667). Miami is coming off wins over Pittsburgh and Virginia in their previous 2 games played. The combination of these results sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle displayed below. Any conference home underdog of 5.0 to 16.0 points that is coming off a conference away underdog ATS loss, and they possess a win percentage of .600 or better, versus an opponent that won each of their previous 2 contests, resulted in those home underdogs going 24-5 ATS (82.7%) since 2000. Additionally, those home underdogs won 13 of those 29 games straight up. Bet on NC State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-04-20 | Bowling Green v. Toledo OVER 62 | 3-38 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Bowling Green 8:00 PM ET Game# 291-292 Play On: Over 62.0 (5*) Toledo had an abysmal defense a season ago evidenced by them being ranked 123rd nationally in that category. The Rockets offensive running game should be able to be extremely successful against a suspect at best Bowling Green defense. This has all the ear marks of a wildly entertaining and high scoring game. Toledo should be able to get out to a comfortable lead in the 2nd half thus making Bowling Green to rely on their passing game. I look for the Falcons to have success via their passing game when that situation arises mostly due to Toledo most likely reverting to a soft cover two shell. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager. |
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10-31-20 | Ohio State v. Penn State +12.5 | Top | 38-25 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
Ohio State @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET Game# 135-136 Play On: Penn State +12.5 (10*) Despite losing being upset 36-35 at Indiana last week as a 7.0-point favorite, Penn State outgained the Hoosiers 488-211. Ohio State is coming off a season opening home blowout win over Nebraska. However, the Cornhuskers were able to move the ball evidenced by its 370 yards of total offense in that contest. Any college football conference home underdog of 14.0 or less that is coming off an away favorite of 7.0 or greater straight up loss in which they allowed 22 points or greater, and they are facing an opponent coming off a home win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 11-0 ATS since 2009. The home underdogs also won 6 of those 11 games straight up. Bet on Penn State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-31-20 | Virginia Tech -3 v. Louisville | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 48 h 30 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ Louisville 4:00 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Virginia Tech -3.0 (5*) The difference in this game will be the Virginia Tech offensive rushing attack. The Hokies are averaging a robust 292.0 yards per game rushing and that includes a sizable 6.5 yards per attempt. They will be facing a Louisville defense which has allowed their opponents to rush for 230 yards per contest including a lofty 5.6 yards per attempt over their previous 3 games. Virginia Tech is coming off a 23-16 loss at Wake Forest in a game they closed as a 10.5-point favorite. Conversely, Louisville is coming off a 49-16 blowout win ober Florida State while easily covering as a 5.0-point home favorite. The combination of those results and this current point-spread produces an unbeaten college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football road favorite of 1.5 or greater that is coming off a straight up loss as an away favorite of 12.5 or less, versus an opponent coming off a home favorite cover and they have a win percentage of .500 or worse, resulted in those road favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1998. The average margin of victory for those road teams came by a decisive 22.8 points per game. Bet on Virginia Tech minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-31-20 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -3.5 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 43 h 30 m | Show | |
Kansas State @ West Virginia 12:00 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: West Virginia -3.5 (5*) This is a classic example of an unranked team like West Virginia being installed as a favorite versus a ranked (#16) team in Kansas State. I unequivocally trust the oddsmakers evaluation of team than those individuals voting in the weekly polls. West Virginia is a perfect 3-0 at home this season and that includes 2 wins over Big 12 opponents. They have been stingy on defense since the season began but even more so at home where the Mountaineers have allowed 16.0 points and 206,0 yards per game. Contrarily, the Kansas State defense has allowed 427.6 yards per game during their 4-1 start to the season. The West Virginia offense is more than capable of exploiting the weaknesses of a defense that has stopped opponents more so because of turnovers than anything else. Bet on West Virginia minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-30-20 | Hawaii v. Wyoming OVER 59.5 | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 44 m | Show | |
Hawaii @ Wyoming 9:45 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: Over 59.5 (5*) Hawaii is coming off a season opening 34-19 win at Fresno State last Saturday. During that victory they amassed a substantial 554 yards of total offense. Hawaii also surrendered 409 yards to the Fresno State offense but were bailed out by 4 forced turnovers. Wyoming lost their season opener 37-34 at Nevada. That game easily sailed over the total of 53.0. The Cowboys defense allowed Nevada to produce 496 yards of total offense which included 420 in the air. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager. |
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10-29-20 | South Alabama +4.5 v. Georgia Southern | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ET Game# 103-104 Play On: South Alabama +4.5 (5*) Georgia Southern is coming off a 28-14 loss at Coastal Carolina which dropped their season record to 3-2 (.600). South Alabama is coming off wins in each of their previous 2 games which improved their season mark to 3-2 (.600) and that includes 4-1 ATS. Any college football away underdog that is playing before Game 11 of their season, and has a win percentage of .510 to .600, versus an opponent (Georgia Southern) coming off a road loss who owns a win percentage of .600 to .800, resulted in those away underdogs going 21-1 ATS (.954) since 1991. The away underdogs also won 13 of those 22 games straight up. Bet on South Alabama plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-24-20 | Cincinnati v. SMU -2.5 | 42-13 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ SMU 9:00 PM ET Game# 347-348 Play On: SMU -2.5 (5*) The Cincinnati defense is superior to that of SMU. The SMU offense is far more explosive compared to their Saturday night opponent. The difference for me in this played is an experienced senior quarterback Shane Buchelle who has played in plenty of big games as a starter for both SMU and Texas. As a matter of fact, Buchelle was a 5* recruit coming out of the elite Texas high school football ranks. The Mustangs come in as the lower ranked team despite playing the tougher schedule and a perfect 5-0 record. Any college football home team that is coming off 5 or more straight up wins in a row, and both teams in the contest have a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 28-3 straight up since 2016. The home teams outscored their 31 visiting opponents by an average of 14.9 points per game. Considering the small number we are being asked to cover, this college football straight up betting angle takes on added significance. Bet on SMU for a 5* wager. |
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10-24-20 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 | 45-3 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Pittsburgh +10.0 (5*) The Panthers have held their own against Notre Dame over the past decade. This year should be no different. The offensive strength for Notre Dame is their running which is evident when looking at its 261.0 rush yards per game average. Conversely, the Pittsburgh defense allows a mere 62 rushing yards per game which includes an outstand 1.9 yards per attempt. As a matter of fact, the Panthers defense is allowing just 20.3 points and 275.0 yards per game. Notre Dame is coming off an uninspiring 12-7 home win over Louisville in a game they were never close to covering as a 15.5-point home favorite. The Irish do not meet my eye test pertaining to their current #3 nationally ranking. The Panthers defense will get enough stops to keep their time inside the number. Bet on Pittsburgh plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-24-20 | Virginia Tech v. Wake Forest +11 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest 3:30 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Wake Forest +11.0 (5*) This line opened at 7.0 and has skyrocketed to 11.0 as Virginia Tech seems to be a public darling. Make no mistake, the Hokies are very good but their chemistry has taken time to shape hold due to many positive COVID-19 tests. As a matter of fact, their defense has performed poorly thus far. The only reason they were not further exposed during last Saturday’s 40-14 win over Boston College is because it was able to force 5 turnovers. The Wake Forest defense is also a weakness. Nevertheless, the Demon Deacons offense will be more than productive enough to keep this game competitive throughout. Bet on Wake Forest plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-24-20 | Iowa State +3 v. Oklahoma State | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State 3:30 Game# 349-350 Play On: Iowa State +3.0 (5*) Since Matt Campbell has taken over as head coach of Iowa State, he has had his Cyclones ready to play when facing elite competition. This will be another one of those instances on Saturday when facing #6 Oklahoma State. Iowa State has been stout against the run defensively and that will be one of the keys in getting this cover. The Cyclones are also an extremely balanced offense between run and pass. It’s close to a 50/50 balance between running and passing plays in addition to yards gained doing each. Oklahoma State has been superb defensively but has not faced the level of competition that Iowa State has played thus far. The other key to our cover will be Iowa State junior quarterback Brock Purdy who can beat you with his arm or legs. Bet on Iowa State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-24-20 | NC State v. North Carolina -14.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
NC State @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: North Carolina -14.5 (10*) The first thing that jumped out at me was the double-digit point-spread. Especially when consider North Carolina heads into this week ranked 14th and NC State comes in at #23. It seems the sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog. I know that a high percentage of bettors will take the bait considering North Carolina was upset at Florida State last week as a 14.0-point favorite, and NC State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS since losing to Virginia Tech 45-24. Speaking of Virginia Tech, North Carolina beat them 56-45 just 2 weeks ago while racking up an enormous 558 yards of total offense. NC State turned the ball over 3 times in their previous game. Since 2018, the Wolfpack have gone 0-7 SU&ATS following a game in which they committed 3 or more turnovers and lost by an average of 23.1 points per contest. Bet on North Carolina minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-17-20 | Georgia +5 v. Alabama | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
Georgia @ Alabama 8:00 PM ET Game# 165-166 Play On: Georgia +5.0 (5*) In my professional opinion Georgia is unequivocally the best defense in college football this season. During their 3-0 start they have defeated Arkansas, Auburn, and Tennessee while allowing just 12.3 points and 236.7 yards per game. This 2020 version of the Alabama defense is not what we have been used to witnessing during recent seasons. The Crimson Tide is a perfect 3-0 but they are allowing 30.0 points and 473.0 yards per game. As a matter of fact, during their 63-48 win over Ole Miss last Saturday they surrendered 647 yards to the Rebels. Georgia is not a dynamic offense, but they are extremely efficient and effective. The Bulldogs are averaging 36,0 points and 430.0 yards per game. I would not be shocked at all to see Georgia win this game, but I will not get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Bet on Georgia plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-17-20 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +5.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State 4:00 PM ET Game# 143-144 Bet On: Mississippi State +5.5 (10*) This is a dangerous spot for Texas A&M after they pulled of a home upset over then #3 Florida last week. As a matter of fact, the Aggies last 2 games have come against #2 Alabama and the previously mentioned contest versus Florida. Now they face a Mississippi State team which is coming off a pair of disappointing losses to Arkansas and Kentucky after beginning their season with an upset win at LSU. As the old cliché goes, “beware of the wounded animal”. I just can not envision Texas A&M coming close to the same intensity level they had in their last games which came against Top 10 ranked teams. Despite suffering 2 straight losses, the Bulldogs outgained both those opponents by 125 and 136 yards. The problem was, they committed an alarmingly high 10 turnovers in those defeats and now have 14 in their first 3 games. I just do not see the volume of mistakes continuing to occur on Saturday. Furthermore, despite the offense putting their defense in tough sports because of turnovers, the Bulldogs are allowing only 285.7 yards per game to their opponents. They have been especially strong against the run while allowing only 39 yards rushing per game. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |