| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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| 06-09-19 | Braves v. Marlins +125 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
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I'll take a shot with the Marlins at this plus price. I favor Miami's starting pitching matchup and the Braves could be resting a starter or two, which would help even up the everyday lineup advantage. Pablo Lopez has been tremendous when pitching at Marlins Park this year going 2-1 with a 1.84 ERA in five home starts. Lopez is in good current form, too, with a 1.99 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are batting .183 against him during this span. The opposite is true of Braves starter Max Fried. The lefty has a 5.18 ERA during his last eight starts. He's really looked bad in his last two starts giving up nine earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. Fried has a 5.63 career ERA in two starts versus the Marlins. Miami is 15-30 against righthanded starters this year. However, the Marlins are a far more respectable 8-9 when going against a southpaw starter.
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| 06-08-19 | A's v. Rangers +119 | 1-3 | Win | 119 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
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Texas starter Adrian Sampson is below-the-radar right now. He's developed a couple of new pitches and he has been pitching well winning his last four appearances. During this time Sampson has posted a 2.38 ERA. The Rangers enter play today ranked No. 2 in the majors in runs scored and are 12-4 in their last 16 home games. Texas draws righthander Chris Bassitt, who has pitched decently this season but has a 5.25 lifetime ERA against the Rangers in four appearances, including two starts. The Rangers enter today winning nine of their last 12 versus a righty starter.
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| 06-08-19 | White Sox -129 v. Royals | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
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The White Sox are 7-0 in Lucas Giolito's last seven starts. It's no fluke as Giolito has emerged as one of the top pitchers in the American League. He's surrendered just five runs in his last six starts spanning 43 2/3 innings. Giolito is 5-0 with a 2.43 ERA in nine lifetime starts against the Royals, including defeating them, 4-3, on May 28 where he recorded 10 strikeouts. Kansas City is 1-7 in Keller's last eight starts. The Royals beat the White Sox, 6-4, on Friday. However, they are just 3-12 in their last 15 games and 1-8 following a victory. Kansas City also is 0-8 the past eight times when playing the second game of a series.
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| 06-07-19 | A's +105 v. Rangers | 5-3 | Win | 105 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
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The oddsmaker opened a wrong favorite here. The A's have dominated the Rangers winning 25 of the past 34 meetings, including going 5-1 during their last six visits to Texas. The Rangers have lost the first game in 11 of their last 14 series. The A's are playing great on the road winning eight of their past nine. The pitching matchup pits Brett Anderson against Lance Lynn. Anderson has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts spanning 17 innings. Lynn faced the A's on April 23 and was hammered for eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings. I'd rate Anderson a slight edge against Lynn and Oakland with a major edge when it comes to the bullpen.
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| 06-02-19 | Indians +131 v. White Sox | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
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Luis Giolito seemingly has turned the corner. He's pitched well all season. The White Sox are improved and the Indians have looked terrible. But I'm going to back the Indians at this plus price. Cleveland still is the superior team. The Indians are pitching rookie Zach Plesac, who impressed in his big league debut this past Tuesday at Boston. He held the Red Sox to one run on four hits and one walk in 5 1/3 innings. Now he is stepping down in class. Plesac had a 1.41 ERA in nine minor league starts with a 56-to-7 strikeouts-to-walk ratio before being called up. Giolito has a 4.41 lifetime ERA against the Indians.
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| 06-02-19 | Nationals -121 v. Reds | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
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I consider Max Scherzer the best pitcher in the National League, if not all of baseball. Sonny Gray is a "C" level pitcher at best and that may be a generous assesment. So I very much like this price point. Scherzer is having another strong year this season despite his 2-5 record. He has made seven straight quality appearances. Scherzer was 2-0 versus the Reds last season with a 1.50 ERA. Washington has won 67 percent of Scherzer's past 58 road starts. The Nationals also are 4-0 in Scherzer's last four starts against Cincinnati. Gray has a 4.18 in six home starts this season. He's vulnerable pitching at Great American Ball Park, which is a top hitter's park. The Nationals have dominated the Reds at Great American Ball Park winning nine of the past 10 times.
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| 05-25-19 | Red Sox +118 v. Astros | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
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David Price is healthy and back in form. He has a 2.17 ERA in his last five starts with 33 strikeouts during this span. The Astros aren't likely to have two of their most dangerous and best hitters with George Springer and Jose Altuve each hurt. Springer injured his hamstring Friday night and could be headed to the injured list where Altuve resides also because of a hamstring injury. The Astros are pitching Brad Peacock. I like Peacock, but he is still striving for consistency. Boston has turned around its season going 16-7 in his last 23 games. The Red Sox also have back their most dangerous power hitter, J.D. Martinez. He played Friday after missing the past four games due to a back injury. Houston is 3-3 in its last six games.
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| 05-21-19 | Reds v. Brewers -125 | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
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The Reds have lost 40 of their past 57 road games, including going 9-15 away from home this season. They are 4-7 versus southpaws this season and facing Brewers southpaw Gio Gonzalez at Miller Park. The Brewers have won 67 percent of their home games this year going 16-8. Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in four starts this season. Milwaukee is 9-2 in his last 11 starts going back to last season. Gonzalez is 6-3 career-wise versus the Reds with a 2.75 ERA in 12 starts. The Reds could be without Yasiel Puig, who suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday. Reds starter Sonny Gray is 0-4 with a 4.30 ERA. Gray has yet to reach the seventh inning this season and is not a good fit pitching at homer-friendly Miller Park.
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| 05-18-19 | Giants -106 v. Diamondbacks | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
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The Diamondbacks are pitching Zack today. The wrong Zach. It's Zack Godley getting the start not Zack Greinke. That puts me in action with this matchup because Madison Bumgarner goes for San Francisco with a price that is right to back the superior pitcher. The Giants are 9-2 the past 11 times Bumgarner has faced Arizona at Chase Field. The Giants lost a rough 7-0 game to the Diamondbacks on Friday. Bruce Bochy was tossed during the game. So the Giants won't be mailing this one in. They are 6-2 the past eight times following a loss. Bumgarner is in solid form with a 3.50 ERA and a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. Bumgarner has a lifetime 2.43 ERA against the Diamondbacks spanning 33 outings, including 32 starts. He has a 2.81 career ERA at Chase Field. Injuries have forced Godley into Arizona's starting rotation - at least for this game. He is struggling with a 7.65 ERA in 10 games, including seven starts. Arizona is 1-6 in Godley's last seven home starts. Godley has a 6.68 career ERA versus the Giants in eight appearances, including six starts. |
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| 05-17-19 | Blue Jays +100 v. White Sox | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
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I'm not a fan of Ivan Nova especially when he's favored against a better pitcher. That's the case in today's Blue Jays-White Sox game in a starting pitching matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus Nova. Nova is in better current form than Sanchez, but that's not enough to convince me. Sanchez has a 3.75 ERA. The righthander was very good three years ago when he last was fully healthy. Sanchez has been durable this season. The White Sox are 5-13 in their last 18 home games when facing a righty starter. Nova has a 6.29 ERA. That hideous ERA is doubled at Guaranteed Rate Field - 13.50. Nova is 6-7 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 19 career appearances against the Blue Jays, including 17 starts. His lifetime ERA at Guaranteed Rate Field is 6.62. So if you think this is a fade on Nova you are 100 percent correct.
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| 05-13-19 | A's v. Mariners -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
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Kudos to Mike Fiers on throwing a no-hitter against the Reds in his last start at home this past Tuesday. Fiers also threw a staggering 131 pitches. Fiers is a 33-year-old journeyman with a career losing record and a 5.48 ERA on the season. Prior to his last start, Fiers had a 6.81 ERA. I'm going to fade Fiers in an obvious letdown spot and with the A's taking to the road for the first time in a week. The A's can be dangerous at Oakland Coliseum. However, they are much worse on the road. Oakland is 5-13 away from home this season. The A's have lost nine of their last 10 road games. Fiers pitched against the Mariners opening day in Japan. The Mariners won, 9-7, knocking out Fiers after three innings by scoring five runs. Seattle is starting Yusei Kikuchi, who I consider to be the Mariners' best pitcher. The Mariners haven't been playing well. They just concluded a 2-8 road trip. But they are returning home now where they should be more relaxed.
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| 05-11-19 | Phillies -132 v. Royals | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
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It hasn't been Aaron Nola nor Jake Arrieta. No, the Phillies' best starting pitchers have been Zach Eflin and Jerad Eickhoff. Eflin is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.90 ratio during his last three starts. Eflin gets the start here against Brad Keller. It's a testament on how bad the Royals are that Keller is their best picher and Kansas City is 2-5 in his last seven starts. Keller is not in good form either going 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 ratio in his past three starts. The Phillies rank seventh in runs scored. The Royals are 16th in runs. Philadelphia has the superior bullpen. The Royals upset the Phillies in Game 1 of this series Friday. I want the Phillies going for me in this revenge spot. |
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| 05-11-19 | Marlins +272 v. Mets | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
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Jacob deGrom looks back in dominant form. Even if that is true, I'll throw a peanut out there on the Marlins at this tremendous plus price. The Mets are a below .500 team with a below average offense. They also don't usually win for deGrom at home losing 18 of his past 24 outings at Citi Field. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara is striving for consistency. He is capable of throwing a gem, though. The Marlins have enjoyed surprising good success against deGrom winning seven of the last nine times deGrom has started against them.
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| 05-10-19 | Phillies -146 v. Royals | 1-5 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
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Sometimes there is value backing a favorite. That's the case here. The Phillies are actually helped playing this opponent on the road because they have better DH options. Philadelphia came on last season and the Phillies are No. 1 in the NL East this season. Kansas City has the second-worst record in baseball. The Royals can't match the Phillies' power and are pitching Homer Bailey against Jake Arrieta. Bailey is as terrible as ever with a 5.25 ERA. The last time he had an ERA of less than 6.00 was 2014. Once in a while he throws a gem. Otherwise it remains a mystery how he can still be in a big league starting rotation. Bailey is backed by a bottom-five bullpen. The Phillies have scored five or more runs in seven of its last 10 games. Arrieta is having another solid season. The Phillies have allowed only eight runs in their last four games.
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| 05-08-19 | Reds v. A's -119 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
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The Reds experienced real cultural shock going from homer friendly Great American Ball Park to the spacious confines and weird pitcher-friendly configuration of Oakland Coliseum as they were no-hit in Game 1 of this series by Mike Fiers on Tuesday. Fiers, mind you, is not exactly Nolan Ryan. I don't see the Reds doing much against Brett Anderson either in the middle game of their three game series versus the A's, which marks Cincinnati's first visit to Oakland in six years. Anderson is a fragile lefty who is tough on bad teams when pitching in Oakland especially at night. The A's are 9-1 the past 10 times Anderson has started at home versus sub .500 teams. Anderson is 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in night games this season. Oakland has won four consecutive home games. The Reds are 17-47 during their last 64 away contests. That's a winning percentage of just 27 percent. Cincinnati is starting Sonny Gray. The A's know Gray well. Gray pitched for Oakland for five seasons starting in 2013. Gray hasn't been good since 2015 and is not in good form entering this matchup with a 5.28 ERA in his last three starts. Matt Olson is back from the injured list for Oakland. He slammed 29 homers and drove in 84 RBI's last year for the A's. There's a good chance Kris Davis is able to play, too, for Oakland. He has been out since Sunday and was close to playing last night, but was scratched at the last minute. Davis, Olson and Matt Chapman are the A's top power hitters.
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| 05-03-19 | A's v. Pirates -110 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
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The timing, pitching matchup and price all line up heavily for Pittsburgh here. The Pirates come home bolstered by a two-game road sweep of the Rangers. They catch the A's playing their worst ball, losers of six in a row all on the road having been swept by the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Oakland is giving up 6.2 runs during this losing skid and has lost five of the games by multiple runs. The A's can be dangerous at home, but are not nearly as good on the road where they have lost the past seven times. Oakland is 1-8 in Brett Anderson's last nine road starts. Anderson has failed to complete five innings during his last two starts. He gave up six runs on 10 hits and two walks in just 4 1/3 innings against the Blue Jays during his last start this past Saturday. The A's rely on the power of Khris Davis. However, Davis has gone homerless in his last 15 games. Davis is going to play the outfield, too, because there is no DH in National League parks. Davis is a well below average on defense. Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove has the third-lowest ERA in the majors at 1.54 through five starts and one relief appearance. Musgrove pitched for the Astros before coming to the Pirates. He is 1-1 with a 1.33 ERA in seven appearances against the A's, including three starts. A big non-pitching key for the Pirates is the return from injury of star outfielder Starling Marter. Pittsburgh was 1-9 without him. The Pirates are 13-5 with Marte in the lineup.
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| 04-28-19 | Padres v. Nationals -101 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
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I don't see the Padres sweeping the Nationals at home. Washington has had its ups and downs, but has not lost four in a row all season. Padres starter Joey Lucchesi is helped by pitching at spacious Petco Park. He had a losing road record last season with a 4.24 ERA. San Diego is 1-4 in his last five road starts. Nationals starter Jeremy Hellickson had an 0.75 ERA in two starts against the Padres last season.
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| 04-25-19 | Diamondbacks +115 v. Pirates | 5-0 | Win | 115 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
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Wrong favorite. Injuries have helped cool off the Pirates. Pittsburgh has dropped four in a row. The Pirates are without outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson among others and have been held to four runs or less in nine of their last 10 games. Arizona is 7-2 during its current road trip. The Diamondbacks also have owned the Pirates defeating them nine consecutive times in Pittsburgh. The pitching matchup is Zack Greinke versus Jameson Taillon. I like Taillon, but Greinke's current form and history make him the better choice. Greinke is 8-4 with a 1.03 ERA in 13 lifetime appearances against the Pirates. The Diamondbacks have won 10 of Greinke's past 14 away starts.
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| 04-20-19 | Blue Jays v. A's -135 | 10-1 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
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I want the A's going for me in a bounce back spot. The Blue Jays knocked off Oakland, 5-1, Friday night. It was Toronto's first victory against the A's after losing all seven games to them last season. It also was a pitching matchup of Marcus Stroman versus Aaron Brooks, who shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Now the pitching matchup is righty Matt Shoemaker versus righthander Mike Fiers. Fiers is an ace when pitching in spacious Oakland Coliseum. He is 6-0 with a 2.38 ERA in his last 10 home starts. He hasn't been scored on in his last two home starts this season spanning 12 innings. Oakland is 8-1 (89 percent) in Fiers' last nine home starts. Toronto is 3-8 in its last 11 games against a righty starter.
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| 04-20-19 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -130 | 6-0 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
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Here comes the Cubs. Chicago has won four in a row and six of its last seven. They are worth riding playing their best ball now. The buy sign is on for Yu Darvish, too, after he fanned eight in 5 2/3 innings during his last start, a 7-2 victory against the Marlins. Arizona is averaging just 2.6 runs in its last three games. Zach Greinke isn't the elite pitcher of past seasons. Greinke is still above average - but not when he pitches at Wrigley Field. Greinke has never won at Wrigley in five career starts and has an 8.31 ERA when pitching there. The Cubs have won 30 of the past 44 times at home when facing a righty starter.
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| 04-19-19 | Giants -101 v. Pirates | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
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The Giants have had good success at Pittsburgh winning seven of the last nine times there. The Giants also catch the Pirates playing at home for the first time in 12 days. So Pittsburgh's concentration and focus may be off. It's not just history and spot why I like the Giants. The price is very good in a starting pitching matchup of Madison Bumgarner versus Jordan Lyles. Bumgarner looked like the elite pitcher he is during his last start, a 5-2 home victory against the Rockies this past Saturday. Bumgarner struck out seven and didn't walk a batter. He has a 2.84 career ERA in seven starts against Pittsburgh. Lyles has made two good starts for the Pirates. But that's not enough to convince me he suddenly has become more than just a fifth starter-type/long reliever. The Pirates are his fourth different team in three seasons. Lyles had a 4.11 ERA with the Padres and Brewers last year. He has a 5.85 career ERA in 19 appearances versus the Giants, including seven starts.
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| 04-17-19 | Giants v. Nationals -129 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
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Jeremy Hellickson is an underrated pitcher being on a Nationals starting rotation that features Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. Hellickson has the lowest ERA of those three at 2.25. Washington is 4-0 in Hellickson's last four home starts. The Giants are not a good road club. They've dropped 21 of their last 29 away matchups. Jeff Samardzija gets the start for San Francisco. He's coming off a rare gem, a 1-0 home win against the Rockies this past Wednesday. Samardzija hasn't proven nearly so effective on the road and against the Nationals. He is 0-6 with a 7.39 ERA in his last six starts versus Washington. San Francisco is 2-8 in Samardzija's last 10 starts. The Giants are 0-5 in his past five away starts. |
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| 04-13-19 | Mets v. Braves -125 | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
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I don't see the Mets winning a third straight road game against the Braves. Not with a pitching matchup of Jason Vargas versus Sean Newcomb. Vargas has a 9.00 ERA and is merely a journeyman fifth-type starter/long reliever at this stage of his career. Newcomb has star potential. He's looked good so far with a 1.64 ERA and has a 1.82 lifetime ERA versus the Mets in six starts.
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| 04-13-19 | Tigers +174 v. Twins | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
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The Tigers are a surprising 8-5. Tyson Ross is coming off a well-pitched 3-1 victory against the Royals from Sunday and the Twins could be rusty having not played since Wednesday. So I'll take a shot at the underdog Tigers at this price. Michael Pineda will be making just his third start for Minnesota since the middle of the 2017 season. Pineda is working his way back into shape and he's not backed by a strong bullpen. The Tigers get back Jacoby Jones, their second-best outfielder. He had missed their first 12 games with a shoulder injury.
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| 04-11-19 | Rockies v. Giants +107 | 0-1 | Win | 107 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
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Both teams are off to slow starts. Both teams have always had a strong home bias/weak road bias. So at this price point, I'm going to go with value and taking the home Giants. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is an innings-eater type of starter. He catches a break as Colorado is minus three starters with Daniel Murphy, David Dahl and Ryan McMahon all out with injuries. I'm not a fan of Colorado stater Jon Gray, who hasn't lived up to being a No. 1 starter type. Gray has given up at least one homer in 14 straight games. He also has a 6.15 career ERA versus the Giants in six starts.
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| 04-09-19 | Braves v. Rockies -122 | 7-1 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
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I see the Rockies getting back on track with a home victory. So does the oddsmaker as he has installed Colorado as a short favorite despite the Rockies' poor 3-8 record. Colorado always plays better at Coors Field. The Rockets are 24 games above .500 playing there during the previous two seasons. They have scored six runs in three of their four home games this season. The pitching matchup is Max Fried versus German Marquez. The Rockies have tremendous faith in Marquez signing him to a five-year, $43 million contract extension this past Saturday. Marquez finished 2018 strong going 7-3 with a 2.38 ERA with a 138-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Marquez has continued this excellent form giving up only one run in 13 innings this year with 14 strikeouts. He should be really pumped for this matchup being his first start since signing the big contract extension. Fried looked great against the Cubs last week, but remains unproven. Pitching at Coors is a different experience. Fried made one relief appearance at Coors last season. It did not go well. He gave up three runs, three walks and a homer in 2 2/3 innings. The Braves may be down to their third-string catcher, too. Brian McCann is on the DL and Tyler Flowers is day-to-day with a hand injury.
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| 04-08-19 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +112 | 3-4 | Win | 112 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
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Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is a very good pitcher at Dodger Stadium. He's not so good away from home, though, with a 3.58 road ERA last season compared to 1.15 at home. The Dodgers are 0-4 in Ryu's last four starts versus the Cardinals. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas went 8-4 with a 2.17 ERA at Busch Stadium last year. The Cardinals are 7-1 in Mikolas' last eight home starts and 22-7 in his lifetime starts for 76 percent. Not only does the pitching matchup favor the Cardinals, but so does the situation. The Cardinals have been home while the Dodgers had to fly in during the early morning hours after playing in the Sunday night game against the Rockies in Colorado. The game stretched out nearly four hours.
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| 04-02-19 | Angels v. Mariners -117 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
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This price is low enough to get involved with the Mariners. Seattle is off to a fast start with 6-1 record. The Mariners are swinging hot bats averaging 7.7 runs per game. The Angels own a 6-2 win against the A's. However, they have scored just six runs in their four other games. The pitching matchup pits journeyman Trevor Cahill against Marco Gonzales, who was 3-0 with a 3.34 ERA against the Angels last season. Seattle is 5-1 versus the Angles the past six times Gonzales has started against them. The Angels also have trouble playing in Seattle losing in six of their last seven visits.
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| 03-28-19 | Mets v. Nationals -125 | 2-0 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
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The two best pitchers in the National League square off here - Jacob deGrom versus Max Scherzer. Between them they have won the last three National League Cy Young Awards. So why get involved backing the Nationals? They are the superior team with home field advantage. Washington has won 72 percent of its last 32 home games when Scherzer has started. Much of that is built into the line where the Nationals are favored. But what sways me completely over to the Nationals' side is the unique backstory to the Mets' travel arrangements. The Mets didn't orginally fly to D.C. from their Florida-based spring training, but to Syracuse, N.Y. to conduct practices there in cold weather to celebrate the town being where their new minor league Triple A affiliate is. This game goes at an an early start time and part of the Mets' travel itinerary involved being on a bus and low level hotel. Making matters worse is their team flight from Florida to Syracuse was delayed three hours. The team wasn't happy with this arrangement, particulary star pitcher Noah Syndergaard, who spoke out against it.
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| 10-19-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +106 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 106 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
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I like the price and I certainly like the Brewers chances of winning this Game 6 of the NLCS to stay alive in the series. Milwaukee went 51-30 at Miller Park during the regular season. The pitching matchup pits Hyun-Jin Ryu versus Wade Miley. Ryu historically has been far less effective away from home. The Dodgers are 2-11 (15 percent) the last 13 times Ryu has pitched against an above .500 opponent on the road. The Brewers saw Ryu in Game 2 at home and got to him for two runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings. Miley started for Milwaukee in that Game 2 home victory and held LA to just two hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Brewers have three dominant relief pitchers - Josh Hader, Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress. All are rested.
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| 10-14-18 | Astros v. Red Sox +115 | 5-7 | Win | 115 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
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This isn't a fade on the Astros. It's a play on Boston. I'm not going to pass up taking a price with the Red Sox at home. The pitching matchup is Gerrit Cole versus David Price. There are two ways of looking at this. The first is the negative view of Price being 0-9 with a 6.03 ERA in 10 postseason starts. That mark has tarnished his legacy. But I choose the positive view of Price having dominated the Astros in his three years with the Red Sox. Those numbers show Price to have a 2.43 ERA and holding Houston to a .205 batting average across 33 1/3 innings, including working 6 2/3 scoreless relief innings versus Houston in last year's Division Series. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was a bench coach for the Astros last season. He wouldn't give the ball to Price in this crucial game if he thought he couldn't get the job done. Boston is 20-6 in Price's past 26 starts at Fenway Park. Augmenting the Red Sox argument is Cole's poor sampling at Fenway Park where he's 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts.
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| 10-05-18 | Indians +136 v. Astros | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
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It's wrong to disrespect the Indians especially with Corey Kluber on the mound. But that's what oddsmaker have done by opening the Astros this big of a favorite. Kluber had another huge season going 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA. He was 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two starts versus the Astros this season. Cleveland has won 70 percent of Kluber's last 23 road starts. A big factor why the Astros opened as such a big favorite in this Game 1 is Justin Verlander. He had an excellent season, too, going 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA. The Astros won all five of Verlander's September starts. He surrendered just four earned runs in 33 innings during September for a 1.09 ERA. However, Verlander was bad in August with a 5.29 ERA in six starts. None of the teams he pitched against in September - Twins, Tigers, Diamondbacks, Angels and Orioles - made the postseason. All had losing records except the 82-80 Diamondbacks. Verlander also has a better road mark where he went 12-2 with a 2.14 ERA compared to 4-7 at home with a 2.84 ERA. Verlander doesn't have a good history against the Indians either. He is 20-24 against them lifetime with a 4.71 ERA.
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| 10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs -131 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -131 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
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I like the Cubs for a number of reasons here and the price is low enough to back them. Both the Cubs and Rockies each lost Monday forcing this one-game Wild-card game. Chicago, though, lost hosting the Brewers. The Rockies fell to the Dodgers in LA so they have had to make a long trip. The Cubs are far more experienced in big games. It was just two years ago when the Cubs won the World Series. The Rockies were one and done in the postseason last year losing a wildcard game to the Diamondbacks on the road. Previous to that the Rockies had not played in the postseason since 2009. I also like the pitching matchup for the Cubs with Kyle Freeland opposing Jon Lester. Freeland has been brilliant this season. Surprisingly, though, he put up better numbers at Coors Field than in his road games. His away ERA is 3.23. Freeland is pitching on short rest, too, having last pitched three days ago. He has a 4.15 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in two career starts. Lester is in great form and has an excellent postseason history. He is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his past three starts this season. Lester has made five career starts against Colorado and posted a 2.25 ERA. The Cubs have won 74 percent of Lester's past 51 home starts.
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| 09-27-18 | Braves -125 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
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The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games and in pursuit of the Cubs for the best record in the NL. Atlanta's lone loss during this span came on Wednesday to the Mets - and Jacob deGrom. No shame in that as deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball. Now, though, the Braves draw the lowly Mets and Jason Vargas. He hasn't been good since the first half of last season when he pitched for the Royals. Vargas is 6-9 with a 6.25 ERA this season. He has a 6.14 ERA in three starts against the Mets this year. The Braves have gotten to Vargas for 19 hits in 14 2/3 innings.
New York has scored thre runs or fewer in seven of its last 11 games. The Braves have scored at least five runs in six of their past eight games. I think it's a cheap price to lay with the much superior Braves. They are starting Julio Teheran and their bullpen has been shored up with the return to health of closer Arodys Vizcaino. Teheran has posted a solid 3.32 ERA during his past 10 starts holding batters to a .177 average in this time frame. He has a 2.42 career ERA in 24 lifetime appearances versus the Mets. Teheran has a 1.69 ERA against the Mets in four starts this year. |
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| 09-26-18 | Astros +121 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
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This is a crapshoot in a starting pitching matchup of Chris Devenki versus Sean Reid-Foley in what shapes up to be a bullpen game. So why not back the much superior Astros in a 'dog role? Why not indeed. Houston is 25-7 in its last 32 games. Devenski was very good last season in a relief role. He hasn't been healthy this season. He should be OK for a few innings here. The Astros have the superior bullpen and offense even if all of their regulars don't play. There's a possibility the Astros get back Carlos Correa, too. |
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| 09-23-18 | Rockies +103 v. Diamondbacks | 2-0 | Win | 103 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
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The Diamondbacks went with their two top pitchers, Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin, during the first two games of this crucial series. Both lost. Those defeats have killed any realistic hope the Diamondbacks had of making the playoffs. The Diamondbacks are 3-11 in their last 14 games. They are a dead team. Arizona has scored two or fewer runs in four of their last five games. Their bullpen has blown up. Colorado has the momentum trailing the Dodgers by just 1 1/2 games in the NL West and also 1 1/2 games behind the Cardinals for the second wild-card spot. The Rockies have played well on the road compiling a 43-37 away mark. The Rockies need this game and are going with their best starter, Kyle Freeland. He's in Cy Young Award territory with a 15-7 and 2.95 ERA. Freeland has been especially sharp down the stretch going 9-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his last 18 starts, allowing more than three earned runs only once during this span. There is the chance the Rockies get Trevor Story back, too, for this game. They've managed to beat the Diamondbacks in the first two games of this series without him. Colorado should be able to do damage against Zach Godley, who is 1-4 with a 7.42 ERA during his last six starts. The Rockies just faced Godley two weeks ago and battered him for five runs on seven hits and two walks in four innings in a 13-2 victory. That was the third time this season Godley has gone against Colorado. He holds a 6.14 ERA versus the Rockies in those three starts.
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| 09-21-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -115 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
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Neither Colorado nor Arizona is in top form. The Diamondbacks, though, are home, have Zach Greinke going and are in absolute must-win mode in order to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Rockies are 1-5 in their last six games. They have scored nine runs during these past six games and aren't likely to have star shortstop Trevor Story, who is suffering from right elbow inflammation. Greinke is 19-4 at home the past two years. He has a 2.43 home ERA this season. Arizona has won 24 of his past 35 starts at Chase Field. Greinke has faced Colorado four times this season and is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA. I trust him in this spot. I can't say the same for Rockies starter German Marquez, who has nearly a 4.00 ERA on the year. Marquez has been pitching better, but has struggled versus Arizona with a 4.33 ERA against the Diamondbacks this season in five starts. This is a short lay price to get the better pitcher at home where he has a dominant record.
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| 09-19-18 | Cardinals -108 v. Braves | 3-7 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
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This matchup features two rookie starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty for St. Louis and Touki Tossaint for Atlanta. Flaherty not only is the proven one of these two, but he has been one of the better pitchers in the National League this season with a 2.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting just .193 against him. Tossaint has a 4.67 ERA in three starts and is dealing with control problems with 13 walks in 17 1/3 innings. The Braves are having bullpen trouble, too. The Cardinals have played much better since Mike Shildt replaced Mike Matheny going 37-22. Atlanta has dropped four in a row, all at home The Braves are 4-14 in their last 18 games at SunTrust Park. The Cardinals have dominated the Braves in Atlanta winning the past eight times at SunTrust Park.
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| 09-18-18 | Blue Jays -111 v. Orioles | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
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When it comes to giving up home runs, Dylan Bundy resembles Al Bundy. Bundy has surrendered 38 homers. That's not in his career. That's this season alone! No pitcher yields more homers than Bundy. Bundy has allowed at least one homer in each of his last 12 starts. The Orioles are 1-7 in Bundy's last eight starts. The Blue Jays have hit the fifth-most homers in the majors. They have an edge in the pitching department, too, with Aaron Sanchez facing Bundy. Sanchez is returning back into form following a two-month stint on the DL because of a finger injury. He held the powerful Red Sox to to one run on three hits in seven innings this past Wednesday. This will be Sanchez's third start of the season against the Orioles. He is 1-0 against them with a 1.88 ERA. Toronto has dominated Baltimore this year winning 13 of 17 for 76 percent. The price is low enough to fade the Orioles, who have by far the worst record in baseball at 43-107.
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| 09-12-18 | White Sox -130 v. Royals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
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The Royals have been playing better of late, but they still are a terrible team and 7-21 in their last 28 games versus a lefty starter. Kansas City faces White Sox southpaw Carlos Rodon in this matchup. Rodon had been brilliant before his last two starts giving up two earned runs or less in eight of nine starts. Rodon has not looked good in his past two outings, though. However, he hasn't pitched three poor games in a row all season. I like him here against a Royals team that ranks 28th in runs. Chicago has won 11 of its last 16 road contests. The White Sox draw Eric Skoglund, who had been on the DL with a sprained elbow. He is 1-5 on the season with a 6.45 ERA. Skoguland isn't likely to pitch long and the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in the majors.
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| 09-12-18 | Pirates -112 v. Cardinals | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
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Up three games for the final wild-card spot, the Cardinals have the luxury of not overtaxing their young pitchers. They are doing just that by going to a six-man starting staff. St. Louis is pitching its sixth starter today, Daniel Poncedeleon. The Pirates have a huge pitching edge as they are going with their No. 1 starter, Jameson Taillon. He has been outstanding since the All-Star break going 6-2 with a 2.48 ERA. Taillon hasn't given up more than three earned runs during his past 10 starts. He has a 1.88 ERA in his past four starts. Pittsburgh is 8-2 in his last 10 road starts. So Taillon can be counted on to keep the Cardinals in check. The same can't be said for Poncedeleon holding down the Pirates. This only will be his fourth big league start. Poncedeleon last started 11 days ago and yielded three runs on five hits in 3 1/3 innings against the Reds in a 4-0 loss. The Pirates have scored five or more runs in five of their last six games.
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| 09-11-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -119 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
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Arizona and Colorado are involved in a big series. The pitching matchup for Tuesday is Zach Greinke versus Antonio Senzatela. I want Greinke going for me. The Diamondbacks are 7-2 in Greinke's last nine road starts. I regard Greinke at least two levels higher than Senzatela, who has close to a 5.00 ERA and owns a horrible history versus the Diamondbacks with a lifetime 8.27 ERA in six career games. He is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in two games, including one start, against Arizona this season. Greinke is coming off a rare bad start. A bad start for Greinke is giving up four earned runs. Only twice in his last 15 starts as he allowed more than three earned runs. Greinke is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in three starts versus Colorado this season. The Diamondbacks have fared well at Coors Field, too, winning nine of their last 12 there.
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| 09-10-18 | Braves v. Giants +107 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
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The Giants are in a great position here to put an end to their season-high eight-game losing streak of which the last six losses have come on the road. San Francisco is 39-30 at home. The Giants have defeated the Braves 11 of the last 16 times they have hosted them. The youthful Braves are in letdown mode after rallying for six runs in the ninth inning to beat the Diamondbacks, 9-5, Sunday in Arizona. That victory allowed the Braves to take three of four from Arizona and move ahead of the Phillies by 4 1/2 games in the NL East. It's not just the spot that is ripe for San Francisco. The Giants also have a pitching matchup edge. Sean Newcomb has clearly hit the wall in this his first full season in the majors. Newcomb has allowed 35 hits and 21 runs during his past five starts spanning 23 2/3 innings. Going back to his past 11 starts his ERA registers 5.91. The Giants have nine more hits than their opponents during their last four games. They are pitching Dereck Rodriguez, who has been outstanding. The rookie has not hit the wall like Newcomb as only once in 15 starts has he given up more than three earned runs. Rodriguez has made eight starts since the All-Star break and has posted a 1.97 ERA and 0.87 WHIP during this span. The Braves have never gone against him.
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| 09-08-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies +129 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 129 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
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I like Dodgers rookie Walker Buehler. But he shouldn't be a road favorite at Coors Field against Kyle Freeland. The Rockies have won 22 of their last 31 home games. Freeland has been a huge part of Colorado's success at home. The Rockies are 10-1 (91%) in his last 11 starts at Coors Field. Freeland is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball with a 13-7 mark and 2.96 ERA. He is one of the few pitchers who actually thrives when pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field with a 2.27 home ERA this season. Colorado is 6-0 during his last six overall starts. The Dodgers are without their closer, Kenley Jansen, for this series. Freeland has gone at least six innings in each of his past six starts. He's backed up by Adam Ottavino, one of the best setup pitchers in baseball, and closer Wade Davis. The Dodgers can't match that late-inning relief with Jansen missing in action.
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| 09-06-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -149 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -149 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
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This is a very tough spot for the Braves, who lost 9-8 to the Red Sox at home on Wednesday after blowing a six-run lead. Now Atlanta takes to the road for the first time since Aug. 26 going cross-country. The Red Sox left the Braves reeling outscoring them, 22-11, in sweeping the three-game series. Atlanta's bullpen had to go 12 2/3 innings during the series and lacks a consistent closer with Arodys Vizcaino on the DL with a shoulder injury. Arizona has been at home since Monday. The Diamondbacks were idle Wednesday so their bullpen is rested. Arizona shouldn't have to rely on their relief pitchers too heavily with Zack Greinke on the hill. He remains a brilliant pitcher with a 13-9 record and 2.97 ERA. Greinke has been his best at home, too, going 6-3 with a 2.16 ERA at Chase Field. He has surrendered two or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 home starts. Arizona is 24-10 in Greinke's last 34 home starts. He should be especially strong pitching with an extra day of rest. Arizona has won 16 of the past 23 times Greinke has pitched on five days rest. The Diamondbacks also are 11-5 following an off day. Anibal Sanchez gets the call for the Braves. He also is pitching on extra rest. However, the Braves are 0-5 the last five times he's gone on five days rest. The 34-year-old has pitched much better than expected, but he could start to be wearing down. Sanchez has only reached the sixth inning once in his last four starts giving up nine earned runs in 22 2/3 innings during this span. He's allowed 28 baserunners in this time frame and three homers. Atlanta is 1-4 in Sanchez's past five starts.
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| 09-05-18 | Yankees v. A's +146 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 146 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
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Oakland is 49-21 in its last 70 games. The A's have been a remarkable story and continue to be underrated. |
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| 09-05-18 | Tigers v. White Sox -163 | 10-2 | Loss | -163 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
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I'm willing to lay this price in order to get on board with Michael Kopech. The rookie could be the best pitching prospect in baseball. So far he's lived up to that giving up one run in 11 innings with a 9-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his first three big league starts, two of which were interrupted by rain. Kopech faced the Tigers on Aug. 26, holding them to one run on seven hits in six innings. The White Sox have quietly been playing good ball winning 14 of their last 21, including going 8-4 in their last 12 games. The Tigers aren't as enthused as the youthful White Sox. Detroit has suffered a lot of injuries and is playing the string out. The Tigers are 3-8 in their last 11. They are starting Jordan Zimmerman, who has a 6.26 lifetime ERA versus the White Sox in 12 career starts.
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| 09-03-18 | Mets +124 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 124 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
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What if I told you that you could get arguably the best pitcher in baseball - the one who has the lowest ERA in the majors and has given up three or fewer runs in 24 straight games - at an underdog price? You would grab it, right, especially when it comes with a huge situational edge? That's what the underdog Mets have going for themselves on Monday in a pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom versus Alex Wood. The Mets can't match the Dodgers at the other eight spots, but deGrom is an absolute monster ranking first in ERA, fourth in strikeouts and sixth in WHIP in the majors. The Mets have won three of their last four games. The Dodgers are playing well, too, but are in a dangerous letdown spot after winning their last three games against the Diamondbacks to take over sole possession of first place in the NL West Division. LA won all of these games against Arizona by the same 3-2 score. The Mets already are on the West Coast having just concluded a series against the Giants in San Francisco. They draw Wood, who has possess a decent by hardly dominating 8-6 record and 3.42 ERA. The Mets are well acquainted with Wood, who used to pitch for the Braves in the NL East. Wood is 1-3 career-wise versus the Mets with a 3.83 ERA. The Dodgers are 0-4 in Wood's last four home starts.
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| 09-02-18 | Rockies -132 v. Padres | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
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Maybe it's because he pitches at Coors Field. Maybe it's because the Rockies aren't a big market team. Whatever the reason, Kyle Freeland may be the most underrated pitcher in the National League. Freeland is 12-7 with a 2.90 ERA despite pitching at Coors. Freeland has been pitching well for quite a while now, but he's been especially dominant during his last five starts with a 1.67 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings during this span. Colorado is 16-5 in Freeland's past 21 starts, 10-1 during his last 11 outings. Oh, yes, Freeland is a southpaw. The Padres have a hideous 13-30 record versus lefty starters this season. That's the most losses against southpaws in the majors. The Padres are in rebuild mode. They are just 27-44 at home. San Diego has gutted its bullpen and is auditioning young starters, sort of throwing darts. Rookie Jacob Nix gets the call here. He has a 4.05 ERA and doesn't miss many bats with just seven strikeouts in 20 innings. Colorado is familar with Nix having just seen him on Aug. 22. The Rockies scored three runs on five hits in five innings against Nix winning 6-2 at home. The Rockies rank in the top-10 in runs and batting average, while the Padres rank in the bottom-three in those categories.
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| 09-01-18 | Red Sox v. White Sox +155 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
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Boston is a phenomenal 93-42. However, the Red Sox are merely 17-14 when going against a lefty starter. The Red Sox face one of the hottest southpaws in the league in a pitching matchup of Eduardo Rodriguez versus Carlos Rodon. Rodriguez is making his first start since July 14 having been sidelined by a sprained ankle. Rodon has been terrific since returning from injury. He is 5-0 with a 1.84 ERA during his past nine starts. Not only do the White Sox have their hottest pitcher going, but they are playing their finest ball winning 12 of their last 17 games. Chicago is averaging 5.4 runs in its past 19 games. The White Sox have scored four or more runs in 11 of their last 13 games. The Red Sox have dropped five of their last six road games, including a 6-1 setback to the White Sox on Friday night.
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| 09-01-18 | Brewers +130 v. Nationals | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
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Milwaukee is 8-3 and very much in playoff contention. They have a very good manager in Craig Counsell and excellent team morale knowing their management is constantly making moves to improve the team. One of those moves was picking up Gio Gonzalez, who had pitched seven years for Washington. The Brewers are sure to pick the newly acquired Gonzalez's brain about the Nationals. Washington has a terrible manager, Dave Martinez, low morale and has been a major underachiever with a below .500 record. Yet the oddsmaker has installed the Nationals as the favorite here because of a pitching matchup of Chase Anderson versus Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has the big reputation. But it's Anderson who has the lower ERA this season. Opponents are batting just .224 versus Anderson, who has a 2.97 ERA in 12 road starts. Starsburg has really struggled when pitching at home going 2-5 with a 5.68 ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA in three lifetime games against the Brewers. Strasburg can't expect much help from a Nationals bullpen that has been depleted by injuries and trades.
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| 08-31-18 | Red Sox v. White Sox +152 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 152 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
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White Sox plus $1.48 hosting Red Sox Michael Kopech isn't just the White Sox's best pitching prospect. He's one of the top ones in all of baseball. Kopech hasn't disappointed during his first two starts allowing just one run in eight innings. Now he draws the Red Sox at home. The Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 games. That's the White Sox, who have compiled that record. The Red Sox actually have lost four of their past five road games. Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi has been cold giving up four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. Eovaldi has been tagged for nine earned runs on 18 hits during his last two starts spanning only 9 1/3 innings. The Red Sox are down several players because of injury, including first baseman Mitch Moreland who isn't expected to play because of a sore knee. |
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| 08-29-18 | Tigers -101 v. Royals | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
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Kansas City is 2-9 the past 11 times Danny Duffy has pitched at home. Duffy has been horrible this season. I'm not buying the Royals opening as a favorite against the Tigers when Detroit has its best pitcher, Michael Fulmer, on the mound. Detroit has the superior late-inning relievers, too, and has scored more runs than the Royals. The Royals, in fact, have scored the fewest runs in the majors. Fulmer looked good in his last outing this past Friday. He held the White Sox scoreless for 4 2/3 innings throwing 77 pitches. That was his first start since the All-Star break. He had been out with an oblique strain. Fulmer should go longer in his second start back from the injury. The Tigers have buried Duffy in their two meetings this season. Duffy has given up 13 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings during two starts versus Detroit for an ERA of 11.32. Duffy doesn't have a good history against Detroit with a 7-10 career-mark and 4.63 ERA in 24 outings. |
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| 08-27-18 | Nationals -110 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
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The Nationals really need this game to keep their flickering playoff hopes somewhat alive. I see them getting the win here in a pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg versus Zach Eflin. Both pitched poorly when they matched up five days ago. The Nationals won that game, 8-7, at home. Strasburg made that start having just come off the DL. He was rusty having not pitched since July 20. Following that game, Strasburg was quoted as saying, "It's a work in progress. I obviously missed a while, so I'll learn some things and take it into the next one (start)." Strasburg has pitched much better on the road where he is 4-2 with a 2.33 ERA this season. He has a tremendous history pitching against the Phillies with a 10-2 mark, 2.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Strasburg's ERA at Citzens Band Park is 1.45 in eight career starts. The Nationals got their bats going on Sunday scoring a combined 14 runs during the final two innings against the Mets.The Nationals pounded Eflin for five runs, four of which were earned, on 10 hits in 3 1/3 innings this past Wednesday. Eflin probably should not still be in the Phillies' starting rotation. He has a 5.59 ERA in his last seven starts. He has a 6.48 career ERA versus the Nationals in two starts. The Phillies are 7-12 in their last 19 games, including losing six of their last eight games.
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| 08-26-18 | White Sox -111 v. Tigers | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
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Surprised to see the White Sox a road favorite? Don't be. Michael Kopech is pitching for Chicago. The righthander might be the best pitching prospect in baseball. Kopech's big league debut was cut short after two scoreless innings against the Twins this past Tuesday because of a rain delay. Kopech had four strikeouts in that brief appearance. Kopech had 174 strikeouts in 128 1/3 innings in the minors before getting the call up. The Tigers have scored fewer than four runs in four of their last five games. They rank last in on-base percentage versus righty starters. The White Sox are playing well winning eight of their last 11. They draw Jordan Zimmerman, who has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 9 1/3 innings against the White Sox this season. Detroit is 5-12 in Zimmerman's past 17 home starts.
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| 08-25-18 | Braves v. Marlins +154 | 1-3 | Win | 154 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
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Anibal Sanchez has turned back the hands of time. After posting ERA's of 4.99, 5.87 and 6.41, the 34-year-old Sanchez appeared washed-up. He has rejuvenated his career with the Braves this season, but is beginning to slow down. Sanchez has a 3.13 ERA on the season, but in his last six starts his ERA is 4.22. The Marlins have proven extremely tough at home with lefty Wei-Yin Chen on the mound winning 14 of the past 20 times he has started at Marlins Park. The Braves have been a great story going 72-56. However, they have a losing record versus southpaw starters. Chen has been terrible on the road with a 1-6 mark and 9.35 ERA, but great at home with a 2.05 ERA. He has a 2.08 ERA in three starts this month. Atlanta has been held to three runs or fewer in six of its last nine games. The Braves also have dropped their last five Saturday games.
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| 08-21-18 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -170 | 5-2 | Loss | -170 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
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In Ryu we trust especially when pitching at Dodger Stadium. The Cardinals are a hot club, but they are at a severe disadvantage in this matchup as evidenced by the large lay price on the Dodgers. Hyun-Jin Ryu made his first start since May 2 this past Wednesday. He shut out San Francisco on three hits in six innings with six strikeouts and no walks. That came at home where Ryu pitches his best. He is unscored upon at home this season in 19 innings. Ryu has a career 0.92 WHIP versus the Cardinals in three appearances. The Dodgers' bullpen received a huge lift with Kenley Jansen coming off the DL way ahead of schedule. Fed up with erratic Luke Weaver, the Cardinals are going with rookie Daniel Poncedeleon in this matchup. Poncedeleon was ranked as just the Cardinals' No. 30 minor league prospect. His ceiling is that of a fifth starter, or long reliever. He faces an LA squad that entered this week ranked No. 2 in the majors in home runs. The Dodgers have seven players with 15 or more homers, including six with 18 or more home runs.
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| 08-21-18 | Padres v. Rockies -167 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -167 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
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The Rockies are hot and rested having won eight of their last nine. They should be refreshed to open a six-game homestand having been idle Monday. Colorado is 20-7 in its past 27 home games. San Diego is 29 games below .500. The Padres have dropped six of their last seven and are 6-14 in their last 20 visits to Coors Field. The pitching matchup heavily favors Colorado, too, in battle of lefties with Robbie Erlin opposing Tyler Anderson. San Diego is 3-9 in Erlin's last 12 starts. The Rockes are 12-2 the past 14 times they've gone against a southpaw starter. Anderson knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 1.35 ERA during his past five home starts. He is 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA in three starts versus San Diego this season. The Padres have dropped 26 of 38 games when facing a lefty starter.
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| 08-20-18 | Indians +101 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 101 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
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There is only one American League pitcher comparable to Corey Kluber. He pitches for Boston, but he's not Rick Porcello. It's Porcello, not injured Chris Sale, who opposes Kluber making the Indians a strong value play at this pick'em type opening price. Cleveland enters this marquee series winning seven of its last eight. Boston was shut out at home by Tampa Bay on Sunday. Normally I'm not looking to go against the Red Sox. But this is a huge pitching mismatch. Kluber and Porcello each have 15 victories. That is where the similarity ends, though. Kluber has a chance to win the Cy Young Award for a second straight year. He has a 2.68 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Porcello has a 4.04 ERA, which becomes 4.57 when he pitches at Fenway Park. The current Indians roster is batting a cumulative .333 lifetime versus Porcello. Cleveland is 22-8 in Kluber's past 30 road starts. The Indians have revamped their bullpen greatly improving their depth with Andrew Miller healthy and newcomers Brad Hand and Adam Cimber on board. The Indians can match any of Boston's top offensive players with Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. |
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| 08-19-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -116 | 2-1 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
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The Cardinals have won 10 of their last 11 games. The Brewers are 3-8 in their last 11 games. So, why not ride the Cardinals especially at this low lay price? Why not indeed. St. Louis is playing its finest ball taking 14 of their last 17. The Brewers are in a tailspin, banged-up and have bullpen issues. Cardinals starter John Gant is proving dependable giving up only two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 1/3 innings. He has a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin has a 3.83 road ERA and has a terrible history versus St. Louis going 0-7 with a 6.90 ERA in nine appearances, including eight starts.
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| 08-18-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
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The Cardinals are on fire winning nine of their last 10 games and 13 of their past 16. They have their best pitcher going here, Miles Mikolas. The Brewers are banged-up, have dropped nine of their last 10 NL Central Division games and are pitching journeyman southpaw Wade Miley. The Brewers are the fifth different team Miley has pitched for in the last five years. St. Louis is 7-1 the past eight times facing a lefty starter. Miley has pitched surprisingly well for Milwaukee, but appears to be tailing off. He has given up five earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. During this time frame, Miley has yielded 11 hits and four walks. The Cardinals have a good vibe and momentum. The Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 games. Mikolas has proven himself to be an elite pitcher, one of the most consistent in baseball. He hasn't given up more than four runs in a game all season. Mikolas is 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA. St. Louis is 7-1 in his last eight starts.
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| 08-17-18 | Giants v. Reds -115 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
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The Reds aren't very good. We know that. But the Giants are 27-35 on the road and have a starting pitching disadvantage here. Yet the Giants opened as a favorite. I say the wrong team is favored. Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani is pitching his finest ball. He's given up just one run during his past two starts spanning 14 innings. He has an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. A big key for DeSlafani is learning to become a pitcher and not just a thrower. He's done an excellent job of mixing his pitches in his last two starts. At first I wasn't going to get involved in this game. But that changed when Dereck Rodriguez was scratched and Casey Kelly was named as his replacement. Rodriguez landed on the DL with a hamstring strain caused during that ridiculous altercation this past Tuesday in the Giants-Dodgers game when Yasiel Puig and Nick Hundley went at it causing a bench-clearing incident. Kelly isn't big-league starting material. He had a 4.78 ERA and 1.42 WHIP at Triple-A Sacramento this season. He has pitched just 6 1/3 innings in relief for the Giants this season. The Reds should have an excellent scouting report on him because Pat Kelly, Casey's father, is a bench coach for the Reds. The Giants are 9-19 in their last 28 away games when going against a foe with a losing home record. They also have dropped the past four games played in Cincinnati.
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| 08-16-18 | Diamondbacks -123 v. Padres | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
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This price is low enough to back the Diamondbacks, who have 20 fewer losses than the rebuilding Padres. Arizona has won 21 of its last 31 road games. The Diamondbacks come in with a rested bullpen having been idle on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks have also won 35 of the past 52 times when meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400. Arizona starter Clay Buchholz has been very good going 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA. The righthander holds an edge against Jacob Nix, who is making only his second big league start. San Diego is 7-20 in its last 27 home games. The Padres have dropped 11 of their last 12 home games when meeting a foe with a winning road mark.
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| 08-14-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -103 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
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The Cardinals have won six in a row. The Nationals are imploding losing their second straight game on a walkoff homer. Their bullpen is shot and the team has serious chemistry issues. They are seven games out of first in the NL East. St. Louis is 17-9 since Mike Shildt replaced MIke Matheny. The price is right to back the Cardinals again while fading the Nationals. St. Louis ranks sixth in the majors in slugging percentage and OPS versus lefty starters. The Cardinals are 19-15 against southpaws and draw lefty Gio Gonzalez, who is at his worst pitching on the road and at night. That's the case here. Gonzalez is 3-5 with a 4.26 ERA on the road. He's 3-6 with a 4.43 ERA in night games. Washington is 2-8 during his past 10 starts. St. Louis, which is a season-high nine games abovbe .500, is going with righthander John Gant. He's coming off a 7-1 victory against the Marlins where he gave up two hits, one walk and one run with four strikeouts in six innings. He threw just 63 pitches in that effort so he should be strong. The Nationals have lost 16 of their last 22 games when going against a righty starter. |
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| 08-13-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -128 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
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The rejuvenated Cardinals have made a move since naming bench coach Mike Shildt to relace Mike Matheny as manager. The Cardinals have won five consecutive series and sit just two games in back of the Brewers for the second wild card spot in the National League. St. Louis is 16-9 under Shildt and have its best pitcher going here, Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals catch the Nationals traveling after playing in the lone night game on Sunday. Washington could still be reeling from blowing a two-out 3-0 ninth inning lead in a 4-3 road loss to the Cubs last night. The Nationals lost when closer Ryan Madson gave up a grand slam homer to pinch-hitter David Bote. Madson said after the game that he is suffering from back pain and it has affected his pitching. So there's a good chance Madson isn't going to be available. The Nationals already are down their two best relievers with Sean Doolittle and Kelvin Herrera both injured and unavailable. This puts tremendous pressure on Nationals starter Tommy Milone, who is a journeyman and coming off a bad start. Milone had a 4.19 ERA in the minors before getting a call-up for the Nationals. Milone was rocked for seven runs on 10 hits - including three homers - in six innings during his past start, an 8-3 home loss to the Braves this past Wednesday. Washington has lost 18 of its last 26 road games. The Nationals are down mentally, have a weak fill-in starter going and a shot bullpen. Mikolas has emerged as an elite pitcher with a 12-3 record and 2.74 ERA. Mikolas has held six of his past seven opponents to two runs or fewer. He has given up three or fewer runs in nine consecutive games. The Nationals have never faced him. Advantage Mikolas. Washington has struggled at Busch Stadium, too, losing 23 of the last 31 times there.
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| 08-12-18 | Nationals -125 v. Cubs | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
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I consider Max Scherzer the best pitcher in the National League, if not all of baseball. He's in great form, too, having allowed five earned runs in his last four starts spanning 27 innings. Scherzer has a 35-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. It's a bargain to get him at such a low lay price. Scherzer's task is made easier with the Cubs' best hitter, Kris Bryant, out with a shoulder injury. The Nationals have won a staggering 71 percent of Scherzer's last 72 starts. Cubs starter Cole Hamels is past his prime. Hamels is making his third start for Chicago. The 34-year-old has been sharp in his first two outings for the Cubs, but those games were against the Pirates and Royals. I don't see Hamels stepping up enough to match Scherzer.
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| 08-12-18 | Pirates v. Giants -106 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
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It's way past thinking Dereck Rodriguez is some novelty item being the son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez. The younger Rodriguez very well could win Rookie of the Year honors in the National League. Rodriguez and the Giants are very tough at AT&T Park. Rodriguez is 3-0 at home with a 1.99 ERA. He has given up two earned runs or fewer in his last eight starts. San Francisco is 33-26 at home this season and 7-2 in Rodriguez's last nine starts. Opposing Rodriguez is Joe Musgrove, who is 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA in day games this season. The price is right to back Rodriguez and the Giants.
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| 08-11-18 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Reds | 3-6 | Loss | -138 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
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Robbie Ray is having his problems at Chase Field, but he's been very strong on the road with a 2.57 ERA in seven away starts. Ray, a lefty, is holding road foes to a .195 batting average. Arizona has won 19 of its last 27 road games. Cincinnati is 8-20 during its past 28 home games versus a southpaw starter. Reds starter Matt Harvey has been terrible since the All-Star break with a 10.66 ERA in three starts. Harvey hasn't finished six innings during any of his past six starts |
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| 08-10-18 | A's -109 v. Angels | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
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The A's are 6-1 in their last seven games and are a much better team than the Angels. Southpaw Brett Anderson is in good form for Oakland, while Angels starter Felix Pena is not. Pena is 1-3 with a 4.97 ERA. The A's hold a vastly superior bullpen. The Angels have lost 17 of the past 24 times when facing a lefty starter. They have been without Mike Trout, who is questionable here.
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| 08-10-18 | Indians -138 v. White Sox | 0-1 | Loss | -138 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
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The rebuilding White Sox are on pace to lose 103 games. They are 21-36 at home and likely to lose to the Indians. Cleveland is 8-2 versus Chicago this season winning those games by an average of `nearly four runs per game. I'm a fan of Indians rookie starter Shane Bieber. He's 6-2 with 58 strikeouts in 57 innings. The White Sox have the disadvantage of never having gone against him. Cleveland is 7-3 in Bieber's starts. Opposing Bieber is southpaw Carlos Rodon. The Indians are 18-12 versus lefty starters. The Indians have already seen Rodon twice this season. Rodon has a 4.76 ERA in his two starts this year against the Indians. The White Sox were idle on Thursday. That's not necessarily a good thing, though, as Chicago is 13-38 following an off day.
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| 08-09-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies +123 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
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The Rockies are very tough at Coors Field where they have won 17 of the past 22 times. They have a favorable spot, too, with LA having played late Wednesday night against the A's in Oakland while the Rockies played a home day game Wednesday. Dodger starter Ross Stripling hasn't been the same pitcher he was before the All-Star Game. He has a 9.35 ERA in two starts following All-Star break. Colorado starter Tyler Anderson has a respectable 3.64 ERA at Coors this season. The Dodgers have scored only 10 runs during their last five games for an average of two runs per game.
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| 08-08-18 | Red Sox -139 v. Blue Jays | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
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The Red Sox dominate baseball with an 80-34 record and they dominate the Blue Jays beating them 24 of the past 33 times, including going 11-3 versus them this season. Boston has had little difficulty either at Rogers Centre winning 16 of the past 20 times there. You usually can't go wrong backing the Red Sox especially when they aren't overinflated which is the case here. The Blue Jays are in a bad state with rumors that their manager John Gibbons will be let go. The pitching matchup is Brian Johnson versus Mike Hauschild and Boston owns a huge bullpen edge. Johnson has a 2.57 ERA in seven starts this season. The Blue Jays picked up Hauschild after the Astros cut him on July 30. Hauschild had a 4.88 ERA in 19 minor legue starts this season pitching for Houston's Triple A team. He has a 6.43 big league ERA in five appearances. He certainly doesn't project to have success against a potent Boston lineup that leads the majors in runs and batting average. |
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| 08-05-18 | Yankees +121 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
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The Red Sox are going for a four-game sweep of the Yankees. I don't see the prideful Yankees getting swept on national television in a pitching matchup of Masahiro Tanaka versus southpaw David Price. Tanaka hasn't allowed a run during his past two starts spanning 15 innings. He's given up just six hits with 17 strikeouts during this span. This was part of a great July for Tanaka, who posted a 1.75 ERA in his four July starts. He is 6-0 on the road this season with the Yankees winning eight of his last 11 away matchups. New York is 20-8 in Tanaka's last 28 overall starts. The Red Sox are down three key infielders - Rafael Devers, Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia. The Yankees have won 24 of their 31 games versus lefty starters this year. The Yankees have taken care of Price in their two meetings against him. Price has yielded 12 runs in only 4 1/3 innings, including surrendering a staggering six homers.
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| 08-05-18 | Braves -119 v. Mets | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
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I think this is a cheap price to lay with the much superior Braves. Yes, the Mets defeated Atlanta, 3-0 on Saturday, but that was with Zach Wheeler. Now the Mets drop down to rookie Corey Oswalt, a fill-in for injured Steven Matz. The Braves had outscored the Mets, 27-5, at Citi Field in going 5-0 before yesterday's game. Atlanta is 11-4 versus the Mets this season. The Mets are in clear rebuild mode and definitely are fade material whenever Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Wheeler aren't pitching. Atlanta starter Julio Teheran has a good history against the Mets with with a 9-6 lifetime record and 2.33 ERA. He's held the Mets to two runs on 11 hits in 21 innings this season for an 0.86 ERA. The Mets rank 30th in batting average. They haven't scored more than four runs in their last eight games.
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| 08-03-18 | Tigers +168 v. A's | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
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Brett Anderson should not be this high of a favorite. Even against the Tigers. Detroit is underrated especially against southpaws like Anderson. The Tigers are 7-5 in their last 12 games and are 16-13 against lefties on the season. It's not a fluke the Tigers are three games above .500 versus southpaws. They have the highest batting average in the majors when facing left-handed starting pitching at .274. Anderson has made just one home start for Oakland this year. That was against the Astros on May 7 and it was a disaster. The A's lost 16-2 as Anderson was shelled for nine runs, seven of which were earned, on 10 hits in just three innings. Anderson has a 5.46 lifetime ERA against the Tigers in seven games, including six starts. Anderson's ERA on the season is 5.55, which is considerably higher than Tigers starter Blaine Hardy, whose ERA is 3.61. Hardy's career ERA versus the A's is 3.14. He earned a victory against the Indians in his last start this past Saturday allowing one run on four hits in five innings. The Tigers shouldn't lack for motivation having been swept by Oakland at home in June.
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| 08-02-18 | Giants +158 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-1 | Win | 158 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
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This sure looks like a 4-3 type of game so I'm very interested in taking a huge 'dog price with Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. Arizona starter Zack Greinke is having a strong season. But his ERA isn't that much lower than Bumgarner's at 2.96 compared to 3.06. So this really comes down to a value play. Bumgarner has a 2.44 ERA in his last seven starts, holding batters to a .191 average in this span. The Giants enter this game with their confidence up having swept the Padres on the road.
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| 08-01-18 | Cubs -112 v. Pirates | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
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Nick Kingham and his 4.80 ERA isn't likely to be in the Pirates' starting rotation too much longer with Chris Archer coming on board. I'm going to lay a short road price with the better team, Cubs, and what I see as a rejuvenated Cole Hamels. Hamels gets a repreive coming to the Cubs from the 46-63 Rangers. Hamels had a bad July. He said his arm is fine. His problem was mechanics, which he said have been straighten out now. Hamels should do better in the National League. The four-time All-Star is past his prime, but he still knows how to pitch and his fastball still has zip as evidenced by 114 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings. Hamels last faced the Pirates two years ago. He has a 1.22 career ERA in five starts versus Pittsburgh. Kingham is off a bad start against the lowly Mets where he yielded six runs in three-plus innings on seven hits and four walks during a 12-6 home loss this past Thursday.
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| 07-30-18 | Astros -108 v. Mariners | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
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The Astros head into this important AL West Division series in a bad state of mind. Houston has lost four games in a row for the first time this season. Perhaps the Astros took the Rangers, who are last in the division, too lightly and were swept by them at home. Whatever. They certainly won't do that against the Mariners and they have a strong pitcher going to make sure of that in Gerrit Cole. Sometimes it is better to go on the road. That could be the case here. Houston is 36-16 in its last 52 away games. The Astros have won in eight of their past last nine games in Seattle. Cole is 10-2 with a 2.54 ERA. He trumps James Paxton, who has thrown less than an inning during the last three weeks because of a back problems.
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| 07-29-18 | Dodgers -138 v. Braves | 1-4 | Loss | -138 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
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I cashed with the Dodgers Saturday and see no reason to get off them today in a matchup of Ross Stripling versus fading Sean Newcomb, who is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA against the Dodgers this season. Newcomb also has a 4.21 ERA in day games. Stripling has a fantastic 114-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He is proving to be one of the Dodgers' most reliable pitchers. LA is 4-0 in his last four outings. The Braves are 5-13 in their last 18 games.
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| 07-28-18 | Dodgers -124 v. Braves | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
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These teams are going in opposite directions. The Dodgers are 9-4 in their last 13 games and are back to being the team to beat in the National League after acquiring Manny Machado. LA is 21-9 during its past 30 road games. The Braves are 5-12 in their last 17 games. They haven't been competitive during their last three games losing by a combined 15 runs. The pitching matchup is Alex Wood versus Max Fried. Wood has a 2.95 ERA in his last seven starts. He has won his past five decisions. Fried has a 3.92 ERA. He has made only three starts this season and hasn't pitched since July 5 due to a blister. The Braves have a huge gap in their bullpen with closer Arodys Vizcaino on the DL with a shoulder injury.
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| 07-26-18 | Brewers v. Giants -108 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
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Dereck Rodriguez is a lot more than just the son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez. He's a legitimate rookie-of-the-year candidate. Rodriguez is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA. San Francisco is 7-0 in Rodriguez's last seven appearances. He has a 1.23 ERA during his past five starts. Milwaukee has never faced him giving Rodriguez an edge in surprise. The Brewers are going with veteran journeyman Wade Miley, who has a 3.90 ERA in 11 outings versus the Giants, including 10 starts. Miley has had problems pitching in San Francisco with a 4.63 ERA in seven starts there. The Giants are very tough at home going 31-19 at AT&T Park. The Brewers are just a .500 road club. They have dropped their last six away contests and have had problems historically at AT&T Park losing 16 of the past 21 times there.
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| 07-25-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -117 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
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Jon Lester has been the Cubs' best pitcher this season. I like him at home laying a short price against a struggling Robbie Ray. Ray was outstanding last year. But the southpaw has yet to rediscover last season's form since coming off the DL. He has a 7.65 ERA in his last four starts. Ray has surrendered seven homers during this four-game span. The Cubs rank in the top four in runs scored and batting average. They are 17-5 the past 22 times facing a southpaw starter. Lester has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his past nine starts. He has a 3.12 home ERA this season despite giving up eight earned runs in his last start at Wrigley Field when a heavy wind was blowing out. That's not going to be the case today. Lester is 7-1 in day games this season. The Cubs usually perform well for Lester having won 74 percent of his last 54 home starts.
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| 07-24-18 | Cardinals -111 v. Reds | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
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I'm not sure what the Cardinals are going to get from lefty Austin Gomber, who will be making his first big league start here. But I do know that I want no part of Homer Bailey. The 32-year-old Bailey will be making his first big league start since May 28. Bailey is 1-7 with a 6.68 ERA. He's in the argument for worst starter in the league. He wasn't much better in the minors going 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA. Bailey has a terrible history versus St. Louis, too, with a 6-14 record and 5.71 ERA in 25 career starts. The Reds have lost 18 of Bailey's last 22 home starts. This isn't a huge surprise considering Bailey's ERA in his last 17 home starts is 7.61. Being a flyball pitcher at Great American Ballpark isn't a formula for success especially when the pitcher is washed up, which Bailey is. Bailey will have to deal with the hottest hitter in the league, Matt Carpenter. The Cardinals are high on Gomber, who had good metrics in the minors such as a high swing rate.
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| 07-23-18 | Padres v. Mets -175 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -175 | 1 h 31 m | Show |
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Huge starting pitching edge. Excellent spot. The Mets have those two key factors going their way here While the Mets were idle yesterday, courtesy of a postponement against the Yankees, the Padres had to play a doubleheader against the Phillies Sunday. As disappointing as the Mets have been, the Padres hold a lower win percentage. The rebuilding Padres have lost 22 of their last 28 games, including seven of their past eight. The Mets are throwing Jacob deGrom, who leads the majors with a 1.68 ERA. deGrom has allowed just one run in his last two starts spanning 16 innings. He has a 1.53 career ERA against the Padres in five starts. deGrom hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during his last 16 starts. San Diego ranks among the bottom four in many of the major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers.
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| 07-22-18 | Dodgers -124 v. Brewers | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
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There are reasons why the Dodgers are road chalk against the Brewers. The two primary ones are they could turn into a superpower with the recent acquistion of Manny Machado and they have the superior starting pitcher going in a matchup of Alex Wood versus Brent Sutter. As an added plus, the Dodgers expect to have Justin Turner back in their lineup today after he had missed five games with a hip injury and have a rested Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers usually respond well to a loss having gone 15-3 the past 18 times following a defeat. They also are 13-3 the past 16 times when playing an above .500 team on the road. Sutter is a No. 5 type starter. He entered the All-Star break with a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts. He holds a 4.87 home ERA and has surrendered a home run in each of his last four starts. The Dodgers lead the NL in homers and now they have Machado, who is tied for ninth in homers in the majors with 24. Sutter last pitched on July 14. Milwaukee is 1-4 the past five times Sutter has pitched with seven or more days rest.
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| 07-21-18 | Giants +115 v. A's | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
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Oakland is doing well this season. But the A's are just 24-22 at home. They are not some super team and I'm not buying journeyman Trevor Cahill as a favorite against Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner just pitched against the A's right before All-Star break on July 13 and won, 7-1. He gave up one run on three hits in six innings. The odds are strong Bumgarner is going to do his job. Not so with Cahill, who is pitching for his sixth team in the last five years. The A's are 1-4 in Cahill's last five starts. Cahill hasn't been sharp giving up seven earned runs on a combined 15 hits/walks during his last two starts spanning just 8 1 /3 innings. He has close to a 4.00 lifetime ERA in 18 outings against the Giants, including 15 starts. The Giants are expected to have Brandon Belt back for this game after Belt missed Friday's game to be with his wife, who was giving birth. Belt is the Giants' top power hitter leading them in homers and RBI's.
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| 07-20-18 | Astros -113 v. Angels | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
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The American League is governed by super powers these days. The defending world champion Astros certainly are one of those super powers. They lead the majors with a plus 188 run differential. So anytime I can get a low enough price on the Astros, I'm interested. That's the case here. Southpaw Tyler Skaggs is having an excellent season for the Angels. This is far more of a play on the Astros than a fade on Skaggs. However, Skaggs is trumped by lefty Dallas Keuchel. Not only is Keuchel in excellent form with a 1.35 ERA in three July starts, but the Angels are 9-18 versus lefty starters this season, including losing 16 of their last 21 to them. Keuchel is 10-2 lifetime versus the Angels. The Astros have won in each of Keuchel's last seven overall starts. Houston is proven on the road, too, winning 28 of its last 38 away games.
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| 07-19-18 | Cardinals +143 v. Cubs | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
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The talent is there for the Cardinals. They just need to wake up. Maybe they have after Mike Matheny was fired this past Saturday. Matheny's relationship with a number of Cardinals had soured. That was a big factor why he was let go. The atmosphere should be better under interim manager Mike Shildt. The Cardinals are 1-0 under Shidt and begin a crucial five-game series with the Cubs today being 7 1/2 games behind the Cubs. The pitching matchup is Carlos Martinez versus Kyle Hendricks. I'm surprised the Cubs opened this high of a favorite. Chicago was hot winning 12 of 15 games leading up to the break. But that could make the Cubs a bit fat and happy since they have now opened a 2 1/2-game lead on the Brewers in the NL Central Division. There's a certain randomness factor involved because each team has been idle for three days. Randomness is a plus when taking a price like this. Martinez pitched extremely well in April, but then he got hurt in May. He wasn't sharp when he returned in June, but lately he has gotten back into an excellent groove surrendering seven earned runs during his last four starts spanning 24 innings. Hendricks is solid, but he's not having a banner year with a 3.92 ERA. He's also not going deep into games having reached the sixth inning only twice in his last nine starts. St. Louis has played better on the road this season than at home going 24-22 in its away games.
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| 07-15-18 | Yankees v. Indians -127 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
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The early action has been on the Indians and I can see why. Cleveland is 30-19 at home and has Trevor Bauer pitching against Masahiro Tanaka. Bauer finally is getting the due he deserves being named to the All-Star team while Tanaka remains overrated. I rank Bauer as among the six best pitchers in the American League. Tanaka is nowhere near that level. Bauer is in tremendous form with a 1.84 ERA in his last 11 starts. He has an amazing 111-to-20 strikeouts-to-walks ratio during this span of 78 1/3 innings. Bauer isn't cripple-shooting either. Cleveland is 8-3 the past 11 times Bauer has gone against foes with a winning record. Tanaka made his first start this past Tuesday since June 8 having been on the DL with a hamstring injury. He gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings during a 5-4 loss to the Orioles, who have the worst record in the majors. Tanaka's 7-2 record is deceiving. He's unbeaten in five decisions on the road, but his away ERA is 4.91. Tanaka has surrendered 12 homers on the road in 47 2/3 innings. The Indians rank No. 3 in the majors in runs scored and homers. They are an outstanding home team and hold a starting pitch edge justifying this lay price. |
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| 07-14-18 | Rangers +100 v. Orioles | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
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Injuries, lack of talent and constant trade rumors about Manny Machado have taken a huge toll on the Orioles. Baltimore has a mind-boggling 26-69 record. The Orioles may already be looking ahead to All-Star break as they have lost 17 of their last 20 games. They have dropped 33 of their first 47 home games and are 1-16 versus AL West opponents. So, yeah, at this price I'll back the Rangers. Texas isn't a good team either, but the Rangers still are 15 games better than the Orioles. The Rangers have the superior bullpen, average a run more per game than the Orioles and have a veteran edge in the starting pitching matchup with Martin Perez going against rookie Yefry Ramirez. Perez has been sidelined since Aparil 29 because of an elbow injury. He was sharp, though, in rehab going 2-0 with a 0.52 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings. Texas has won 11 of his last 16 starts. Ramirez has made three big league starts. They have not gone well. He's 0-3 with a 3.93 ERA. The Orioles' bullpen is hurting minus injuired setup relievers, Darren O'Day and Richard Bleier. Led by closer Keone Kela, the Rangers' bullpen is having a strong month. Kela is 23-for-23 in save opportunities this season.
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| 07-14-18 | Rays v. Twins -134 | 19-6 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
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The Rays are one of those good at home teams (26-17) bad on the road (22-29) clubs. They are struggling in Minnesota right now losing the first two games at Target Field in this series. Tampa Bay has now lost 16 of its past 21 away games. Expect the Rays to drop another road game here in a pitching matchup of Chris Archer versus Jose Berrios. On paper the pitching matchup appears even. It is not. Berrios is a rising star who has been outstanding at home with a 7-2 mark, 2.49 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. Berrios is in excellent current form, too, with a 2.70 ERA during his last seven overall starts. Minnesota is 18-3 the past 21 times Berrios has pitched at Target Field, a winning percentage of 86 percent! Archer isn't the pitcher right now of seasons past. He's 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA and is struggling since coming off the DL. He gave up three runs in only 3 1/3 innings versus the Tigers in his last start this past Monday.
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| 07-13-18 | Phillies v. Marlins +135 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
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There is far more than meets the eye in this matchup making the Marlins a highly attractive home underdog. The Phillies are feeling fat and happy being the surprise leaders of the NL East and coming off a 5-4 road win against the Orioles on Thursday. The Phillies had to play the Mets in New York on Wednesday. So this marks their third different road venue in three days. Miami was idle on Thursday. The rested Marlins are proving they aren't the bottom feeder many envisioned going into the season. Miami is a respectable 34-40 in its last 74 games. The Marlins are 6-1 the past seven times they've faced a righty starter at home. They draw righthanded Jake Arrieta here. Arrieta isn't close to being the elite pitcher he was during his Cy Young Award-winning 2015 season. He's given up three or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts. He's 3-4 on the road with a 4.64 ERA. Philadelphia is 2-5 during Arrieta's past seven away starts. Arrieta has struggled during his two starts against the Marlins this season with a 9.39 ERA in 7 2/3 innings. The Marlins get back their best player, catcher J.T. Realmuto. He had missed the past three games because of paternity leave. While Arrieta has struggled on the road, Miami pitcher southpaw Wei-Yin Chen has thrived at home with a 1.89 ERA in six starts at Marlins Park. The Marlins have won 12 of Chen's last 16 home starts. Chen is the first lefty starter the Phillies have faced since July 1, a span of 10 games. They have seen only two southpaw starters since June 15. The Phillies are 1-5 the last six times they've gone against a lefty starter. |
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| 07-12-18 | Rays -115 v. Twins | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
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Thanks to a five-game win streak, the Rays are a season-best four games above .500. They have won 14 of their last 18 games. The price is low enough to ride them with their best pitcher, Blake Snell. Minnesota is enjoying a homestand. The Twins just concluded successful home series against the the Orioles and Royals. Those are the two worst teams in baseball. Now they step up against the hot Rays. Minnesota has lost the past seven times whe meeting an opponent with a winning record. Snell has become a monster this year. He is second in the American League in wins and ERA. Snell is 8-1 in his past 10 starts, allowing two runs or fewer in nine of those outings. Snell has given up only two runs in his past 28 2/3 innings. Twins starter Kyle Gibson is 3-6 with a 3.59 ERA. Gibson has been solid this season. His record should be better, but he's been unlucky. However, he's several levels below Snell. Gibson also has a poor history versus the Rays with a 1-5 mark and 6.81 ERA. Gibson squared off against Snell back in April and the Rays blasted the Twins, 10-1. The Twins are without their main setup guy, Addison Reed, also. Reed was put on the DL because of a triceps injury.
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| 07-11-18 | Mariners +106 v. Angels | Top | 3-0 | Win | 106 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
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The price is right to get involved with the Mariners. Seattle is 10 games better than the Angels in the standings and own both a starting pitcher and bullpen edge on Los Angeles. Marco Gonzalez was touted before the season as a sleeper breakout candidate and he's come through going 9-5 with a 3.64 ERA. The southpaw is back in good form giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 14 innings with a 14-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. The Angels really struggle versus lefties losing 16 of 23 times this season when facing a southpaw starter. Jaime Barria goes for the Angels. He's given up 11 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 19 2/3 innings. He's allowed 10 walks and four homers during this time frame. The Angels are 0-5 in his last five starts. |
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| 07-09-18 | Cubs v. Giants -117 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
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The Giants are very strong at home - 28-16 on the season, including 16-6 in their last 22 home games - and catch the Cubs flying to the West Coast following an eight-game homestand. The Cubs carry a high bullpen fatigue rating and their starter, Kyle Hendricks, is in a down cycle with a 6.29 ERA in his last seven starts. Chicago is 2-5 in Hendricks' last seven outings. The Giants got their bats going putting up 13 runs against the Cardinals on Sunday. San Francisco starter Andrew Suarez has a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during his past five starts.
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| 07-08-18 | Dodgers -122 v. Angels | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -122 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
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The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 17 away games. They are the superior team here and have a pitching matchup edge plus I prefer their bullpen especially with closer Kenley Jansen. Southpaw Alex Wood began the year slow, but has come on for the Dodgers. He's going for his fifth straight winning start. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during his last five outings. The Angels have yet to ever face him. Along with their current strong road mark, the Dodgers also have won 19 of their past 26 interleague games. The Dodgers are 18-12 against lefty starters this year. They draw lefty Andrew Heaney, who is up-and-down and frequently injuured. Heaney is healthy now, but not in good form. He's allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts spanning 10 1/3 innings. During this time frame, he's surrendered 13 hits, five walks and three homers.
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| 07-08-18 | Rockies v. Mariners -133 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
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If you can't beat him, join him. That's the way I feel about southpaw Wade LeBlanc. I was fading LeBlanc when the 33-year-old first joined the Mariners. But he's been super going 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 12 starts for the Mariners. Seattle has yet to lose during any of LeBlanc's 13 previous starts at Safeco Field. The Mariners are 14-3 overall in LeBlanc's starts. The Rockies are 5-16 in their past 21 interleague games when facing a lefty starter. I don't see the Rockies pulling off a rare road sweep with Antonio Senzatela on the mound. He has a 4.44 ERA. The Mariners have outfield Mitch Haniger back in the lineup and sparkplug Dee Gordon is expected to start, too, today after not starting on Saturday due to a minor hip injury.
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| 07-08-18 | Reds v. Cubs -147 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
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Jim Riggleman has turned around the Reds. Cincinnati had won 14 of their last 18 games until blowing a five-run lead in losing 8-7 to the Cubs on Saturday. That loss is a momentum shifter, though. I see the rejuvenated Cubs beating the Reds again today behind their top pitcher, Jon Lester. The Cubs have won 75 percent of Lester's last 52 home starts. Lester is 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA in eight home starts this season. Reds starter Luis Castillo showed intriguing potential two seasons ago. But he's regressed this season with a 5.53 ERA and only five quality outings in 18 starts this year. The price is worth laying to get Lester in this pitching mismatch.
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| 07-07-18 | Cardinals -110 v. Giants | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
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If there is a buy sign on Jeff Samardzija I'm certainly missing it. Samardzija was terrible before going on the DL - a 6.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP - due to pectoral and shoulder injuries and he was bad while recovering in the minors with a 5.29 ERA. This is his first big league start since May 29. San Francisco is 0-5 in his last five starts. The Giants' bullpen is down closer Hunter Strickland and could get extensive work here. Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez was rusty and shaky when he first returned from the DL. But Martinez is a near-elite pitcher and has looked good in his last two starts holding the Indians and Diamondbacks to a combined four runs in 12 innings. Martinez is pitching on his normal four days rest. St. Louis is 9-2 the past 11 times that has happened. The Cardinals' lineup is bolstered by the return of power-hitting middle infielder Paul DeJong and closer Bud Norris, who was cleared to pitch today after being out the past two days with a finger injury.
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| 07-05-18 | Angels v. Mariners -124 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
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The Angels ended the Mariners' eight-game win streak with a 7-4 win on Wednesday. I don't see the Angels beating Seattle a second straight day in a pitching matchup of rookie Jaime Barria versus lefty Marco Gonzales. Barria started fast, but the league has caught up to him. The Angels, though, have too many pitching injuries to take Barria out of the starting rotation. Barria is pitching today in place of Tyler Skaggs, who went on the DL Wednesday with a right adductor strain. Barria has a 5.65 ERA in his last three starts. The Angels are 0-4 during his past four starts. The Mariners just saw Barria on June 12 scoring three runs on eight hits in five innings against him. The Mariners have won 21 of their last 27 home games. Gonzales has been a solid middle-to-bottom-of-the-rotation starter. He's given up two runs or fewer in six of his last nine starts. At 26 he is in his prime and is further along in his pitching career than the 21-year-old Barria. Seattle has a far better bullpen than the Angels, too. The Angels are 6-15 on the season versus lefties. They have lost 10 of the past 11 times on the road when going against a southpaw starter.
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