Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-18 | Jaguars -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Jaguars are off a 16 point loss at Kansas City but Jacksonville actually outgained the Chiefs by 78 yards! The Jags were simply done in by turnovers but that is unlikely to be an issue today. Jacksonville turned the ball over 5 times last week but the Cowboys have forced only 4 turnovers TOTAL in their 5 games this season. Dallas only lost by 3 at Houston last week but it was a deceiving final score. The Cowboys got the push ATS in that game but were very fortunate for that as the Texans failed many times in the red zone. Houston outgained Dallas by 170 yards in the game and should have the game by about two TDs. Last week's "false final" results involving both of these teams is what is leading to solid line value here. Keep in mind the Jaguars should have beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game last season but blew a big lead inexplicably. In other words this is a team that was one step away from the Super Bowl last season and we're getting them off a loss here. As for the Cowboys, this is a team that continues to be in disarray and just can't find any solid footing or consistency. Their offensive line is not near what it use to be and this will be an issue as they face the attacking Jaguars defense. Dallas has just 1 ATS win in their 5 games this season. The Jaguars appear poised to improve to 10-5 SU and ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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10-13-18 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +6.5 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #176 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - The Mountaineers are a ranked team and an undefeated team and so when they opened up as a rather small favorite here of course the betting masses jumped all over them. This has led to even more value here with an Iowa State team that is much better than their 2-3 record indicates! The key to that value is that the Cyclones have played a much tougher schedule than West Virginia has so far this season. That is why West Virginia has been a double digit favorite in 4 of their 5 games this season while Iowa State has been an underdog in 4 of their 5 games and that includes being a double digit underdog each of the last 3 times the Cyclones were a dog. Iowa State enters this game with added confidence after the big win at Oklahoma State last week. While some may expect them to now fall flat at home, this is the Cyclones only home game in a span of 5 weeks as they've been on the road for back to back weeks plus they have a bye week on deck. That said, Iowa State is going to make the most of this opportunity to host a ranked and undefeated Big 12 foe! As for the Mountaineers, they also have a bye on deck but that situation can play out much different mentally when you are an undefeated team. West Virginia is likely already thinking about their bye and could look right past a Cyclones team they have enjoyed plenty of success against in recent meetings. The Mountaineers, in fact, are known for this is in recent seasons as they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 against teams with a losing record while the Cyclones are known for stepping up against tougher competition as they are 11-2 ATS their last 13 games against teams with a winning record! 10* IOWA STATE |
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10-13-18 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg -3.5 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #664 Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 2 ET - The Blue Bombers have lost both match-ups with the Riders this season and that is despite holding the yardage edge in each game! In other words it is payback time Saturday in Winnipeg and the situation is perfect. The Bombers are looking up in the standings at the Roughriders and are highly motivated as they still need to secure a post-season spot. Winnipeg also has a big rest edge here as they're OT win at Ottawa was on Friday last week while Saskatchewan is coming off of a hard-fought home win versus Edmonton that was played on Monday! The Roughriders are on an 8-15 ATS run in Saturday games and are on short rest here too. The Blue Bombers are 12-6 ATS in Saturday games, 16-8 ATS when playing with revenge, and 14-6 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Combined edges of 57-28 (67%) in favor of the home favorite here. Lay it! 10* WINNIPEG |
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10-12-18 | South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #110 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - From mid-September to late-October, this is the only home game for Tulsa. The fact that they are getting to host a conference foe that is currently a Top 25 team and it is a weeknight game with the ESPN cameras rolling just adds to the factor that the Golden Hurricane are going to be sky high for this game. Yes Tulsa's record looks bad but they've played a much tougher schedule than South Florida has and the Golden Hurricane have been done in by turnovers. Each of the last two games for Tulsa have been "phony finals" where the final score has not been commensurate with the yardage for the game. Also, the Golden Hurricane lost by just 7 points at Texas earlier this season. As for the Bulls, they won by 16 at UMass last week but allowed nearly 500 yards to the Minutemen. 5 turnovers is what led to the big win for South Florida. Their two prior wins were both by 7 points or less and those were teams they were favored to beat by 2 or 3 TDs. In other words, the Bulls are coming into this game over-valued while the Golden Hurricane are certainly under-valued at this point in the season. Look for redshirt freshman Seth Boomer to play much better in his 2nd start at home after having to play on the road last week. Tulsa was a 17 point dog at Houston in that game and led the game outright by 9 points in the 4th quarter before things came unraveled due to turnovers. This Golden Hurricane team is so hungry and has proven they can hang with teams like Houston and Texas on the road. In other words, facing USF at home is certainly not going to be as tough as a task as those games were and Tulsa covered both of those games. The Golden Hurricane are 8-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. South Florida is 2-6 ATS in a road game with a posted total in the range of 56.5 to 63 points. 10* TULSA |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -2.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #103 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Eagles have won 3 straight SU in this series. With this number dropping back down to a -2.5 on Philly, there is great value with the small road favorite in this one. Philadelphia has lost back to back games SU and has failed to 4 straight games but that has led to line value in this spot. Home field has not meant a lot in this series and, that said, laying less than Field Goal with the super bowl champs is excellent line value. Yes the Eagles are banged up at RB but they still have plenty of talent at the skill positions plus a powerful offensive line and one of the better defensive lines in the league. The Giants are just 1-4 SU this season and off a disheartening late loss at Carolina after rallying back for a shot at the victory. That is a tough loss to bounce back from and this is particularly true on a short week. Look for Eagles QB Carson Wentz to deliver a huge game here and look for Philly to dominate in the trenches as Philadelphia improves to 5-2 ATS the last 7 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive SU losses. The Eagles are 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 Thursday games. The Giants are 0-2 SU and ATS their last 2 Thursday games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints -6 | Top | 19-43 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:15 ET - The Redskins are coming off of their bye week but are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 after a bye. The Saints have a bye week on deck and are 7-3 ATS when playing the week before a bye. We also have good value here in that Washington has overachieved early this season while the Saints have underachieved early this season. Yes New Orleans is 3-1 on the season but everyone remembers their opening game loss at home versus Tampa Bay and then how the Saints barely beat the Browns in Week 2. This is why New Orleans is less than a TD favorite hosting the Redskins here while last season they were favored by nearly double digits when they hosted Washington! Certainly one could argue that the Redskins have the better defense in this match-up but the Saints are the better team on offense and I expect Washington will not be able to keep up here. Keep in mind, this is just the 2nd time this season that the Redskins are on the road. Their first road game was against an Arizona team that is 1-4 on the year and playing at New Orleans is certainly a much tougher draw than facing the Cardinals at Arizona! The Saints are also 7-0 ATS in their last 8 October games while Washington is 0-4 ATS their last 4 games on Monday night football. That is an 11-0 / 100% perfect situation favoring the home team in this one! 10* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
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10-07-18 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #958 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Run Line +1.5 runs (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - This is a ton of value here. The Braves are looking to avoid elimination and, even on the run line at +1.5 runs, they are available at plus money on their home field. Even if Atlanta loses a tight one by a single run, you can still cash a ticket on the run line at +1.5 runs in this one. The Braves Sean Newcomb very nearly no-hit the Dodgers here in Atlanta in late July. Yes the Dodgers Walker Buehler has been pitching well but, just like Newcomb, he does not have post-season experience. I also like having the Braves sticks at home and the Dodgers are on a winning streak but are still just 13-16 (-$14,400) this season when they enter a game on a winning run of 3 or more consecutive games. Also, Los Angeles is 38-45 (-$24,400) in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Braves are 9-5 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, Atlanta is 17-7 in Sunday games this season. With their backs against the wall, the Braves bounce back here and get at least the "cover" in a game where I just don't see the Dodgers ever being able to establish a big lead. 10* ATLANTA BRAVES Run Line +1.5 runs |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #453 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs are undefeated on the season but coming off of a short week and a last minute win at division rival Denver on Monday night. Kansas City also has a big game on deck with the Patriots! KC has won each of the last 3 meetings with Jaguars so this is a triple revenge spot for Jacksonville. Keep in mind, none of the 4 teams that KC has beaten currently have a wining record. As for the Jags, they've beaten the Patriots (3-2 and arguably better than that record indicates of course) and they lost to a Titans team that is now 3-1 on the season. The Jaguars were one of the top teams in the AFC last season and they are well aware of the undefeated record of the Chiefs here. Public bettors will be enamored with backing a home team laying just a field goal considering they haven't lost a game yet this season. The fact is that the road dog is the way to go here as Jacksonville it highly motivated and the Chiefs are truly in a tough scheduling spot. Also, as good as Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense has been, the Kansas City defense is one of the worst in the league right now while the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league on defense. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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10-06-18 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M -5.5 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #382 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas A & M Aggies (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats are 5-0 this season and the Aggies are just 3-2 and yet opened up as nearly a TD favorite. Long-time followers know where I am going with this one! Texas A & M has played the tougher schedule and also is very tough at home. The odds makers know this too and that is why this line is priced like this. The Aggies have had time to adjust now under new head coach Jimbo Fisher and, keep in mind, the two losses that Texas A & M has on its ledger came against Clemson and Alabama! The Aggies put up nearly 400 yards against the Crimson Tide and did reach 500 yards against the Tigers! Those are very impressive numbers for any offense going against a defense like each of those teams possess. That said, there is great value here because I don't believe the Wildcats offense can keep with the Aggies here. Kentucky has averaged just 313.5 yards per game on offense the past two weeks. Texas A & M is averaging over 500 yards per game this season despite having to play Clemson and Alabama this year! The Wildcats are off of a huge win versus South Carolina last week but 4 Gamecocks turnovers were the key to the victory as the yardage was nearly equal. This is a high value spot for a play because right now the betting markets are enamored with the Wildcats but the unranked Aggies are favored at home for a reason and they prove that to everyone here. As a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Kentucky is a long-term 7-15 ATS. The Aggies are already 4-1 ATS this season and are coming off of their first non-cover this season. That makes this the perfect time to back them! 10* TEXAS A & M |
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09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 26-14 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers have defeated the Ravens three straight times. Pittsburgh lost their only home game this season so you know they're going to be ready to go here and make up for the defeat versus Kansas City two weeks ago. As for their other two games, the Steelers did have to settle for a tie versus Cleveland but that was truly a crazy finish after Pittsburgh did lead 21-7 in the 4th quarter. As for their other game (a win last week versus the Bucs), the final score was tight but the Steelers were up huge in that game. You can bet that after these disappointing finishes (blown big leads) and having lost their only game at Heinz Field so far this season, Pittsburgh is going to go a full 60 versus their hated rival, the Ravens, in this one. Of course the betting markets focus on Baltimore's big win last week and the fact that the Steelers let some leads slip away and so now the market has made the move toward Baltimore here. More often than not I like to fade the popular choice and the Ravens are attracting the money in this one. Again, Steelers will not let up against Baltimore like they did against the Browns and Lions. Also, I prefer having Ben Roethlisberger as my QB here rather than Joe Flacco as the latter tends to be turnover prone in the biggest of situations. Note also that, per the injury reports, the Ravens are the more banged up team. Baltimore is only 3-10 SU and 5-7-1 ATS the last 13 times they've been an underdog. The Steelers are 10-3 SU (9-4 ATS) the last 13 times in games their line ranges from +3 to -3. Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional games and facing a divisional foe that has double revenge against them. Steelers haven't lost B2B home games since early in the 2016 season and I don't expect them to drop to 0-2 at home on the season. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #162 Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET - Though Ohio State has been getting the SU wins in recent meetings between these teams, Penn State has covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these rivals. Also, neither one of these teams has faced a tough schedule so far this season. That said, while one could argue that the Nittany Lions are unproven so far, one should also consider that the Buckeyes have played an easy schedule thus far. That said, what sticks out in the minds of most in the betting markets is that Ohio State has dominated every single week while the Nittany Lions struggled to get past Appalachian State in week one. The key though is that PSU has responded since then with 3 straight blowout wins and they get this game at home plus they are an underdog of more than 3 points. I feel we're getting excellent line value here as a result. While it is true that Penn State has struggled at Ohio State for many years now, it is also true that they give the Buckeyes all they can handle when they meet at State College. The Nittany Lions have covered all but 4 of the last 12 meetings in Happy Valley and and they've won half of the dozen games straight-up. The public is enamored with Ohio State right now (as per usual) but they truly struggled to get past TCU and that is the same Horned Frogs team that just lost badly to Texas. The Frogs lost by 15 points and turned the ball over 4 times in that game. The point is that Ohio State may be just a little over-rated right now. The Nittany Lions are a superb 16-2 SU (and 17-1 ATS!) when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU wins. In recent seasons Penn State is 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Also, long-term as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, the Nittany Lions are also 5-1 ATS! Ohio State is just 1-3 ATS their last 4 on grass. Also, the Buckeyes are 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The last two match-ups have been decided by a TOTAL of just 4 points! Grab the value with the home dog points in this one. 10* PENN STATE |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - The betting markets often operate on a short-term memory and, as a result, there can be excellent line value in situations like this. As of early game day morning, the line on this game has been driven up to as high as a 7.5 as many just can't stop thinking about that embarrassing home loss the Vikings just had against the Bills on Sunday. The keys to the value here are that, prior to that game, Minnesota had a tough early season schedule as the Niners (with Garappolo at QB) were certainly a formidable match-up and then the Vikings went to Lambeau Field. After having to settle for a tie at division rival Green Bay and then knowing that this big match-up with the Rams was on deck, it is not a huge surprise that he Vikes were flat against Buffalo. Of course an outright loss was not expected but some struggles were expected. The fact that Minnesota did lose outright (and bad) actually only strengthens the power of this situation here. The Vikings will be ready to go and they're taking on a Rams team that has beaten the Raiders, Cardinals, and Chargers. Those 3 teams have a combined record of 1-8 this season! I do respect the Rams but they are truly getting too much respect from the betting markets here and the fact that we can now get 7 plus the hook in this one has me raising it to a top play. In terms of long-term technical data, the Vikings are 8-4 ATS their last 12 games against the Rams and Los Angeles is on a 2-8 ATS run in Thursday games. The Vikes should improve to 4-0 ATS their last 4 games versus NFC West opponents. 10* MINNESOTA |
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #489 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - The winless Steelers are at the 2-0 Buccaneers and the earliers lines on this game had Pittsburgh as nearly a field goal favorite. Now the Steelers are the underdog in this match-up as of early Monday morning and I love the value we're getting here with the road team. While it is true that Tampa Bay is 2-0 this season, it is also true that the Bucs have allowed an average of 376.5 passing yards per game. That porous pass defense will be trying to stop Big Ben and Company and note that the Steelers passing attack is averaging 377.5 passing yards per game thus far. Look for that match-up to be the key to this game. Yes I know that the Pittsburgh run defense has not been good so far this season but they'll be fired up in the trenches and ready to go here as a winless team on the road under the Monday Night lights. Big opportunity for the Steelers here and note that Tampa Bay managed less than 2 yards per carry in their win last week. In games with a line between +3 and -3, the Steelers are on a 9-3 SU run. Pittsburgh also is a long-term 31-10 SU in Monday night games! In games with a total of 49.5 points or more, Tampa Bay is a long-term 4-12 SU! You can see that a lot of points are expected here and I don't expect the Buccaneers to be able to keep up. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 11-2 ATS when they are a road dog and facing an opponent that is off of back to back straight up wins. Of course that system is in effect here and I am grabbing the very hungry road dog in this one. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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09-22-18 | Troy -4.5 v. UL-Monroe | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #397 Saturday 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) @ UL-Monroe Warhawks @ 7 ET - I am well aware that there are some weather concerns in the Monroe area for Saturday. However, this side play is such a fantastic situation that I am not going to shy away from it. The hope is that any weather in the area happens earlier in the day and does not interrupt this game. UL Monroe's home stadium is FieldTurf which helps in term of drainage and avoiding a super muddy field as can be the problem on natural surfaces should there be rain in Monroe on Saturday. In my opinion Troy is still the class of the SunBelt Conference and to get them at this low of a number against a Warhawks team that has not won more than 4 games in a year since the 2013 seasons, is a great bargain! Some may be concerned about the Trojans being off the big upset win at Nebraska last week but, keep in mind, two years ago, Troy was nearly a double digit dog at Southern Miss and got the upset win over the Golden Eagles and then turned around won their next game by a 46 point margin. The Trojans last year had the huge upset of LSU and then faltered the next week as they lost outright as a nearly 20 point favorite. Trust me, lesson learned and this Trojans team is fully focused on the task at hand this week. That "task" is that this is their conference opener and Troy will be ready to go here in a big way. Also note that UL-Monroe is actually 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they've faced a team that is off of an outright win as an underdog! Of course that system fits with the Trojans off the upset of the Corhuskers as a double digit dog last week. Also, the Warhawks lost big to Texas A & M last week and failed to cover. That is noteworthy here as UL-Monroe is 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they were off of a SU loss that was also an ATS loss in non-conference action. This is the Warhawks SunBelt opener too and it is time to get serous in conference action. That favors the more talented and stronger Trojans and I am happy to lay the short number. We just need to keep the storms away from the Monroe area as much as possible. They are expected to move away during the evening hours. 10* TROY |
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09-21-18 | Montreal +10.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #651 Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - Last week's final score would indicate that Montreal got blown out but that was a fluke final score fueled by late defensive touchdowns for Hamilton. That sets this one up well for some additional value on the Alouettes. Even though the Blue Bombers are off of a bye week they can't help but be looking ahead to a big showdown with Edmonton next week as that is a divisional foe. Winnipeg also might be a victim of over-confidence here and look right past the Als as the Bombers have defeated Montreal 4 straight times. I love the value with the road dog in this one as it has been a road-dominated series ATS and we're able to get double digits here. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings which includes the Alouettes losing their last last visit to Winnipeg by just a single point! The visit before that Montreal won by 8 points as an underdog. We're getting great line value here as the Blue Bombers have allowed an average of 36.5 points per game in going 0-4 SU in their last 4 games! The Alouettes are 4-0 ATS as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 points. The Als are also 4-0 ATS in road games with a posted total of 52 points or more. Winnipeg is 0-4 ATS the past 4 weeks. That means we have a combined 12-0 / 100% perfect ATS mark in support of Montreal in this one. Look for Alouettes QB Johnny Manziel to be much better in his return as the starting QB here. 10* MONTREAL |
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09-20-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 32 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) Cleveland Browns @ 8:20 ET - I understand the line completely as many experts feel the Jets and Browns are equal teams and therefore Cleveland is merely favored for home field edge here. However, the fact that we can get +3 or even +3.5 with New York in some shops as of Tuesday night is a big value in this one when you consider that Browns have not won a single game since Week 16 of the 2016 season! I really like the fact that the Jets outgained the Dolphins by over 100 yards last week but yet came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard. This also helped add line value this week because, keep in mind, the Jets blasted the Lions in Week 1. As for Cleveland in Week 1, yes they did tie Pittsburgh but the Steelers gave that game away late as they blew a 21-7 lead. Pittsburgh actually outgained the Browns by 145 yards in Week 1. The Browns tie with the Steelers and their close battle with the Saints last week become less impressive when you consider both of those teams have plenty of issues as they each are still seeking their first win of the season. That said, I am certainly not saying that the Jets are not without some issues too but you can absolutely see why, per all of the above as well as New York's stat edges early this season, I am happy to back the road dog here and fade a team that hasn't even won a game since 2016. The Jets have failed to cover just once in their last five versus AFC North opponents. Cleveland was 7-4 SU through game 11 in the 2014 season. Since then the Browns are 4-49 SU! Will I fade a team that is laying 3 plus the hook in some spots and has won just 4 of its last 53 games? Yes indeed and I will elevate this to a Top Play too. 10* NEW YORK JETS |
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09-19-18 | Royals v. Pirates -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #978 Wednesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Run Line -1.5 runs vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates, though mathematically still alive, certainly have slim hopes of a Wild Card berth at this point in the season. However, that hasn't stopped them from playing hard. Last night's win was their 4th straight and Pittsburgh is now 10-3 in their last 13 games. Keep in mind, the Bucs are hosting one of the worst teams in baseball in this interleague match-up and last night's loss dropped Kansas City to 22-52 on the road this season. Even though Pirates starter Chris Archer gave up some big hits versus the Brewers early in his most recent start, he settled down and pitched quite well overall. I like the fact that Archer has allowed only 13 hits in his last 17 innings while striking out 19 during this span. Also, in his last two starts versus the Royals, Archer has held them to just 3 earned runs on only 11 hits while striking out 17 over 15 and 1/3 innings. KC sends Heath Fillmyer to the mound and the Royals are 0-4 in his road starts this season as he has been rocked to the tune of a 12.40 ERA in his starts away from home. More of the same expected tonight. The Royals are 5-24 in their last 29 games versus a team with a winning record. Of course I would never lay huge juice on a money line but I love the value of the run line here with the Pirates available as low as even money by laying the 1.5 runs. Pittsburgh has won 14 of 19 interleague games this season while Kansas City has lost 13 of 17 against NL teams. 72 of the Royals 99 losses have come by 2 or more runs this season. 49 of the Pirates 76 wins have come by 2 or more runs this year. I like the odds on a home blowout in this one with Archer over Fillmyer! 10* PITTSBURGH Run Line |
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09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #283 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Don't underestimate that Jags win over the Giants last week in New York. The Giants have some solid talent at the skill positions with Odell Beckham, Jr back in the mix and now Saquan Barkley running very well already in his rookie campaign for New York. That said, the Patriots were somewhat fortunate to sneak past the Texans last week and that was at home. Now they play in very high heat and high humidity in Jacksonville Sunday and they face a team that should have beat them in the AFC Conference Championship Game last year and that one was in Foxboro! In other words, I like my chances with the Jaguars as they won't blow a big lead against the Pats in Jacksonville in September like they did in New England in January. The Jags outgained the Patriots in that big playoff game and also dominated time of possession but they were done in by penalties. They are going to make the most of this opportunity for revenge. Of course the Patriots have been a covering machine in recent years and that is priced into this line. In other words, the wrong team is favored here but that is to satisfy the masses and, as long-time followers of my program know, I like to fade the masses. Keep in mind, since this line has Jax as a dog we can talk about their SU streaks as they do apply here and Jacksonville has won 6 in a row SU at home. As strong as the Pats have been overall ATS they have covered just 2 of their last 5 away from home and I like the Jags in the stifling oppressive heat of Florida in this one. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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09-15-18 | Arizona State v. San Diego State +6 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #210 Saturday 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs (+) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10:30 ET - The Sun Devils rallied for a home win against Michigan State last week. As a result, Arizona State was able to sneak by a ranked Spartans team even thought they allowed nearly 400 yards in that game. Now the Sun Devils are on the road for the first time this season and facing arguably their toughest challenge yet (first away game and hosted weak UTSA team in Week 1) and yet ASU is favored by nearly a full TD here. The markets are not grading this team properly. Head coach Herm Edwards was considered by many to be the most questionable (and possibly worst) off-season hire and now after just two games they're laying nearly a full TD on the road. I just don't see it and yes I am aware of the Aztecs QB being out for this game. Keep in mind San Diego State is a run dominated team. Also, a big key to this play is that Edwards plucked away their defensive coordinator from the Aztecs. Do you think long-time veteran head coach Rocky Long wants this game? This match-up certainly has special importance to him. He has been coaching in some capacity ever since his playing career ended in the mid-70s and he is known as a defensive specialist. He does not want to get out-witted by his pupil (the ASU DC) on the opposite sidelines. This will be Long's 230th games as an NCAA head coach while Aztecs coach Edwards does have NFL coaching experience but will be coaching his first ever road game in college action. I love the home dog here as the running game of the Aztecs and a huge edge with coach Long on our side of this play proving to be keys to victory. It also certainly is important to mention the scheduling situation here heavily favors San Diego State. While the Aztecs are at home and off of an easy win over an FCS team and with a MAC team on deck, the Sun Devils are off of a grueling upset win over a ranked Big Ten team plus they have their PAC-12 opener on deck. I'll gladly grab all the points I can get here. 10* SAN DIEGO STATE |
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09-13-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs (-) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET - This one has the makings of a road rout. The Cardinals haven't faced Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw in awhile and the lack of repetition certainly won't help them. The LA southpaw has dominated the Cards to the tune of allowing just 1 earned run on only 4 hits in 17 innings spanning his last two starts against them. Kershaw has struck out 30 in 23 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus St Louis. He also enters this start in superb form as the lefty hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start in nearly two months. The Cards are also going with a southpaw here. Austin Gomber, whom beat the Dodgers on August 20th in Los Angeles, gets the call here. I realize that he has a low ERA and some impressive numbers on the season. However, Gomber allowed 10 hits in 7 innings in his most recent home start and that was the only time he has had to make a 2nd start against a team this season. The point is that he got hit harder the 2nd time around and now the Dodgers are getting a second look at Gomber. LA has gone 9-3 in Kershaw's last 12 starts and 9 of their last 11 wins with Kershaw on the mound have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Cardinals have lost 3 of their last 5 home games and also each of their two games this month versus left-handed starters. Kershaw dominates and Gomber struggles. 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Broncos | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos, based on the markets, appear to be a popular choice this week. This is understandable from the anti-Seahawks sentiment as certainly Seattle has lost some key components from the team that took the field last season. However, I have to wonder if people heavily betting Denver stop and think about this interesting factoid: the Broncos win totals keep decreasing! They won 12 games 3 years ago, 9 games two years ago, and only were victories 5 times in 16 games last season! Is this a team you want to lay points with against a Seahawks team that still has plenty of professional pride and has been a top team for many years now. Also, do you want Case Keenum at QB or Russell Wilson? Of course most everyone would take the Hawks signal-caller give the choice! The point is just the simple fact that a little too much respect has gone the way of the Broncos in my strong opinion. We can now get a full field goal with the team, that in my opinion, is still the better team. Sure there is the important factor of home field but the Broncos have covered just once the last five times they've been a home favorite of 3 points or less. Overall, Denver's home field has been nothing special the last two seasons as they've barely played above .500 in the Mile High City. The Seahawks are 6-2 SU against AFC teams the past two seasons. The Broncos are on an overall 2-10 ATS run. You still have to score points to win games and so, while I respect the Denver defense, I think their offense is still going to have growing pains with Keenum at the helm. Seattle averaged scoring 5 points per game more than the Broncos last season plus the Seahawks D - even after personnel changes - is still a solid unit. The Hawks are also on a 4-0 ATS run when playing the first of back to back road games. Also, head coach Pete Carroll is in his 9th year with the Seahawks while Vance Joseph is in his just his 2nd with the Broncos. That difference in experience is worth something too. 10* SEATTLE |
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09-08-18 | Georgia -10 v. South Carolina | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #347 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) @ South Carolina Gamecocks @ 3:30 ET - This is the year for the Gamecocks. That is what most everyone is saying at least. I know my choice here will be an unpopular one because just about everywhere you look in terms of thoughts on this match-up you're going to read about the value on South Carolina. Ladies and gentlemen, the odds makers don't make many mistakes. That is a fact. While most of the sports betting world scratches their heads and wonders how the Bulldogs can be a double digit favorite on the road in this match-up I am here to tell you that the likelihood is going to be domination in the trenches. I know the Gamecocks are improved and I know the Bulldogs lost some key players from last year's team. But Georgia simply "reloads" and they have a huge talent pool where their best players are coming from. The fact is that they've outgained South Carolina by a combined total of 578 to 73 in rushing yardage in the past two meetings between these teams. That is absolute domination in the trenches but we're getting line value here because they won each of those two games by only 14 points each despite dominating the ground game. I expect Saturday's win to again feature domination and this time it translates even better to the scoreboard with the win to come by 21 points. The Bulldogs have had this game circled because they know that this is one of their toughest games of the season up until they travel to LSU in mid-October. The point is that one of the top teams in the nation here, Georgia, is absolutely going to be ready and up to the South Carolina challenge. The Bulldogs are 6-1 SU (and 5-2 ATS) in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Also, in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points, the Bulldogs are an incredible long-term 21-6 SU and ATS! South Carolina, as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points is 1-6-1 SU and 2-6 ATS! Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart and Gamecocks coach Will Muschamp are each in their third years with their respective teams. The vast improvement that Georgia showed from year one to year two tells me that, despite the experience returning on offense for the Gamecocks (both teams lost a lot on defense), the systems and the buy-ins from the players into those systems are having much more success for the Bulldogs than the Gamecocks and we'll see that again on Saturday in my opinion. Lay the big points on the road. 10* GEORGIA BULLDOGS |
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09-07-18 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #968 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Run Line -1.5 runs vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - The Rays are 41-24 at home this season. The Orioles are 17-55 on the road this year. Of course I am not going to lay the huge odds (over 2 to 1) with the Rays on the money line here. However, I do see fantastic line value in laying a very small price with Tampa Bay and expecting them to win this game by 2 or more runs. Hence the value here with the run line as Blake Snell gets the rematch against Dylan Bundy that he wanted. Keep in mind that Snell has pitched infinitely better than Bundy all season long but when they matched up in Baltimore back in May. In that start Bundy had a rare gem while Snell had a rare sub-par performance. Payback is on order today and Snell is 8-1 with a 1.06 ERA in his home starts this season. As for Bundy, the Orioles are 3-9 in his road starts and he enters this start with an 8.79 ERA in his last 3 starts. Laying the 1.5 runs here is certainly supportable by the fact that 15 of the Rays last 17 wins have come by 2 or more runs and 11 of Baltimore's last 13 losses have come by a margin of defeat of two or more runs. Expecting more of the same here on Friday. 10* TAMPA BAY Run Line -1.5 runs |
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09-03-18 | Toronto +9 v. Hamilton | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #647 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 6:30 ET - Toronto lost at Montreal last week. As a result, they have no chance at Hamilton this week. Of course I jest but you get my point! We've seen a major market move toward the Tiger-Cats here and, simply put, there has been an over-reaction to last week's results. Keep in mind, the Alouettes team that beat the Argonauts last week certainly has been playing much better in recent weeks. Also, does Hamilton really merit being this large of a favorite in this divisional match-up? Keep in mind, the Ti-Cats not only are on a 1-4-1 ATS run, they're only 2-4 SU in their last 6 games. From my point of view, Hamilton will be doing good just to win this game let alone cover a spread that has now crept up to 9 as of game day morning. This is why I waited to release this pick until game day because I felt we'd get extra value based on market perception. Sure enough, ladies and gentlemen, here it is! Grab the big points with Toronto! The Argos have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams and the lone loss came by just two points. Hamilton is only 1-3 ATS in home games this season. Also, the Argonauts are on a 5-2 SU and ATS run when off of a loss to a division rival. Look for the Argos McLeod Bethel-Thompson to trade blows with Tiger-Cats QB Jeramiah Masoli throughout this game and I just don't see Hamilton as being able to pull away from a fired up Argonauts team ready to fight hard after last week's unexpected loss. This is the Argos chance to pull even with Hamilton in the standings! 10* TORONTO |
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09-02-18 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angeles Run Line +1.5 runs @ Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - Even though Shohei Ohtani will be on a limited pitch count here the Angels bullpen (yesterday's results notwithstanding) is quite solid. They also do have fresh arms in the pen as they only went 1 inning yesterday and, in the prior two games in this series, the starters went 6 innings in each game. So the Angels should be solid with Ohtani backed by a rather rested bullpen. The Angels are 7-2 in Ohtani's starts this season and while certainly the big dog comeback price is enticing here, I like the added "insurance" of having the +1.5 runs in this one. Prior to yesterday's ugly late-game loss the Angels, at +1.5 runs, were 15-8 their 23 previous games. As for the Astros, at -1.5 runs, they had gone 11-21 their 32 prior games. Gerrit Cole gets the start for Houston here and the Astros are only 5-6 in his last 11 starts but yet Houston is priced at nearly 2 to 1 on the money line in this game. I feel we're getting excellent line value here as Cole gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent start plus, prior to that, he had allowed 24 hits in 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. The Astros have been fantastic on the road this season but are barely above .500 at home on the year. Great line value here. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS Run Line +1.5 runs |
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09-01-18 | Washington State v. Wyoming | Top | 41-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #205 Saturday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (-) @ Wyoming Cowboys @ 3:30 ET - Everyone seems to love Wyoming here. They are the more experience team, they have a game under their belt, and they won big at New Mexico State last week. However, that same Aggies team then went to Minnesota last night and got absolutely blasted by a Golden Gophers team that normally doesn't score a lot of points. That blowout loss put bullet holes into a couple of those aforementioned theories. One is about having a game under your belt (NM St had that edge over Minny) and the other is that the Cowboys win over the Aggies even matters! Here are the facts that do matter. Experienced or not Wyoming is still a Mountain West team and think about it ladies and gentlemen, how many kids grow up thinking I want to play football at Wyoming? This is not some football powerhouse. Now they're hosting a Pac-12 team that early this summer was laying a TD against them. Now Washington State is down into the pick'em price range and is available at a pick'em price on the money line in a number of books as of mid-day Friday. I am happy to back the Cougars here at a fantastic discount as the markets have done what they usually do - they overreact to one game! Keep in mind Washington State has a couple of easier non-conference home games on deck. In other words, the Cougars have been fully focused on this road challenge all summer long as they know this will be their toughest game before Pac-12 action gets underway for them. They'll be ready...and so am I! 10* WASHINGTON STATE |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 55-42 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #144 Friday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) vs Syracuse Orange @ 6 ET - I know this is a MAC team that Syracuse is facing but the Orange sure are getting an awful lot of respect from the betting markets when you consider that they are 2-8 SU in road game the past two seasons. Simply put, Syracuse is not known for traveling well and they're taking on a Western Michigan team that is 10-2 SU in home games the past two seasons. I am well aware of the fact that the Broncos have a game at Michigan on deck next week but they are not looking ahead to that. This is their home opener and this is an important game to win and they know of course that a win next week against the Wolverines would be nothing short of a miracle. In other words the Broncos are most certainly focused on the task at hand here. I also like the fact that Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester was the offensive coordinator with Syracuse as recent as just a few years ago. He has some insight into the Orange (including their players) that others don't have. Also, Lester is going to be resuming play-calling duties again this season which I feel will bring out the best in this Western Michigan offense. The Broncos are anxious to get back on the field after an ugly season-ending loss at Toledo last year. Prior to that defeat Western Michigan had won 6 of their 9 prior games and none of the 3 losses came by more than 7 points. The average margin of defeat for the Broncos was just 4 points in those 3 losses. Syracuse lost a ton of talent from last season's wide receiver corps and in their linebacker unit. Keep in mind the Broncos, by the end of the year, had lost 21 players to season-ending injuries last year. That has created a roster this season that is much deeper and much more experienced (others forced into action last year) than first meets the eye and, of course they are healthier right now too. Add it all up and you have great "hidden value" with the home dog here! 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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08-30-18 | Redskins +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #111 Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7:30 ET - With the Ravens RG III having a shot to go against his former Redskins teammates and with Baltimore having a chance at an undefeated preseason of course they are going to go all out here and play most all of the starters for most all of the game in an attempt to blow away Washington. Of course I am being facetious here but this is truly an absolutely insane line move that has taken place here. This is week 4 of the preseason. No one cares about this week. Yes there are a few final roster battles going on but, at the end of the day, this is a very unimportant game. That said, where is the drive and the motivation for the Ravens to win this game by a full TD or more? It truly is not there. Of course RG III will want to play well here but what about the supporting cast. Also, how much motivation is it really when it is still preseason? Also, you don't think the Redskins want to contain Griffin too no matter whom is on the field? This line, going from -1.5 all the way up to as high as a -7 as of Tuesday, is simply out of whack. In fact, there is another key element here that also is to the advantage of the undervalued underdog. That factor is that the Ravens, by virtue of having played in the NFL Hall of Fame Game, will be playing their 5th game of the preseason. The last 8 teams in that situation have 0 ATS wins to show for it. One was a push (line was 3), one had their final game cancelled (Dallas/Houston last year) and the other 6 all failed to cover! You can see why I feel there is great value in the big points (biggest offering on the board) being offered in an otherwise meaningless Thursday preseason finale. Yes I understand about preseason QB rotations too and how these guys have played thusfar in the preseason but also keep in mind the Redskins did outscore the Broncos in the 2nd half last week. That said it is those same reserves that will play a critical role this week as well. 10* WASHINGTON |
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08-26-18 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #281 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8 ET - There is a common practice in preseason wagering of backing winless teams and fading undefeated teams. However, most of this week's action is already in the books and note that Baltimore (4-0) won again this week, Miami (0-3) lost again this week, Tennessee (0-3) lost again this week, Philadelphia (0-3) lost again this week, Carolina (3-0) won again this week, Atlanta (0-3) lost again this week, Seattle (0-3) lost again this week. As you can see, not only is the undefeated/winless system worthy of being questioned, there is also merit to the fact that playing on the streaks is the better way to go. Of course the reality is that what matters the most in preseason is the coaches approach to the game and how much they care about winning. That is what ends up being a factor at the betting window too. While the Cardinals Steve Wilks is already 2-0 SU and ATS in his preseason debut, the Cowboys Jason Garrett (even with a rare cover in this preseason) is still an ugly long-term 11-20 ATS in preseason games. Based on the coaching factor as well as what I am hearing/seeing in reports from EACH of these camps on how they're going to play this one, I am backing the small road favorite here. Look for the goose egg to stay on the board in the loss column for Arizona and the win column for Dallas. Remember guys, preseason is a different animal compared to betting the NFL regular season. It is with very good reason that there has been a big move toward the Cardinals here with this line! 10* ARIZONA |
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08-25-18 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -8.5 | Top | 26-39 | Win | 100 | 73 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #366 Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3:30 ET - The Stampeders entered last week's action 7-0 on the season and then ran into a buzzsaw at Saskatchewan and got drilled by the Roughriders. Of course Calgary is seeking payback against anyone in their path this week and that means the Blue Bombers are absolutely in trouble here. Simply put, Winnipeg is in the wrong place at the wrong time. If the Stampeders were on the road again this week a bounce back would be tougher but, at home, I just don't see them being denied. Couple that with the fact that there is major difference in terms of these defenses and you have a blowout game likely here. While the Blue Bombers are allowing 24 points per game this season, the Stampeders were allowing just 12 points per game in their 7 game winning streak. One game doesn't change everything for Calgary. This is still the best team in the CFL and another key I like about their "edge" here is that the Stamps are 9-4 in divisional games since the start of last season while Winnipeg is just 1-2 in divisional games this season plus got knocked out of the post-season last year by another divisional foe, Edmonton. In other words the Blue Bombers are just 1-3 their last 4 divisional games while Calgary (including last year's post-season win over Edmonton) is 10-4 their last 14 divisional games. Big difference as the West is the tough division and the Stampeders continue to prove they are the best in the west! Situational edge, home field edge, and edge on defense all add up to a home rout here. 10* CALGARY |
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08-20-18 | Ravens v. Colts +1 | Top | 20-19 | Push | 0 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Game #432 Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Colts opened up as a 1.5 point favorite for this game but now are as much as a 1.5 point dog as of early game day morning. Of course the betting markets are jumping all over the Ravens here due to Baltimore's success in the preseason. Indeed Jim Harbaugh has a great record in preseason action but do you really think the odds makers aren't aware of this when they set these lines? The fact is that the betting markets are ignoring the fact that the Colts are very hungry right now with new head coach Frank Reich. They got the win at Seattle last week and, keep in mind, Indianapolis did score 5 times against the Seahawks. The reason for "only" 19 points was 4 field goals and just 1 touchdowns but there is no argument about the fact that the Colts played quite well last week. Now Indy makes their home debut under coach Reich and it is on Monday Night with ESPN cameras rolling. Of course it is still "just" preseason but I have no doubt that, given this situation, the Colts are going to "bring it" tonight. Conversely, the Ravens are off of a blowout win versus the Rams last week (33-7) and teams oftentimes fall short after big rout wins like that. Give me the more motivated team, the hungrier team, the home dog, in this one! 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
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08-14-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #974 Tuesday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Run Line +1.5 runs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Diamondbacks struggles to hit on the road continue to give them trouble. Yesterday they faced 45 year old Bartolo Colon and finished the game with only 6 hits. The Diamondbacks .230 batting average on the road this season ties them with the Rockies for DEAD LAST in the National League. Tonight Arizona faces a pitcher who has been red hot of late. Yovani Gallardo is 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA in his last 4 starts while holding the opposition to a .213 batting average in those outings. He also is a superb 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA in his 15 starts against the Dbacks in his career. He'll be opposed by Arizona southpaw Patrick Corbin. While the lefty does have good numbers on the season, he is facing a Rangers team whose .446 slugging percentage in home games ranks them 5th out of all 30 MLB teams. Two more big homers led the way for Texas yesterday and they have averaged scoring 8.4 runs per game in going 6-2 in their last 8 home games. We're getting great market value here because the markets overemphasize pitching and that includes looking a lot at long-term numbers and they don't give enough weight to hitting. The summation, Gallardo has pitched just as well as Corbin of late and the Rangers hitting at home is much better than the Diamondbacks hitting on the road. In the last ten home games for Texas at +1.5 runs they have a record of 9-1, 90%! That's right...only one home loss by more than one run in their last ten home games! As for Arizona, at -1.5 runs in road games, they're 3-6 their last 9 games. The Rangers price at +1.5 runs is right around even money which is a true bargain as you can see per the above. I'll take it! 10* TEXAS +1.5 runs |
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08-10-18 | Hamilton +5.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Game #353 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - Everyone has been piling on to the Blue Bombers here and I am going contrarian and grabbing the Tiger-Cats in this one. Hamilton is not only 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats are also 5-1 SU in those last 6 visits! Overall, Hamilton has earned a well-deserved reputation as "road warriors" at the betting window as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall! Winnipeg opened up as a 4-point choice here but is now as high as a -5.5 early in the week but this is a Blue Bombers team that has lost 10 of its last 14 games against Hamilton SU. The Tiger-Cats beat them at home in June and certainly Winnipeg would like revenge but the Ti-Cats outgained the Blue Bombers by 200 yards in that beatdown. Prior to that game the road team had a yardage edge over the home team in each of the 3 prior meetings and I would not be surprised to see that trend resume here as Hamilton's road warrior efforts continue. Even though the Blue Bombers have been hot they've played a lot of weaker teams and the Tiger-Cats have a bye week on deck so they're going hard all game in this one. 10* HAMILTON |
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08-03-18 | Hamilton v. Montreal +7 | Top | 50-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Game #376 Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:30 ET - The Tiger-Cats went 6-12 last season and they are 2-4 so far this season. The Alouettes went 3-15 last season and are 1-5 so far this season. The point is that both teams are on track to have similar seasons to last year and there is not a lot that separates these two teams and yet Hamilton is laying a solid 7 on the road here at Montreal. The last time these two teams met in Quebec the Ti-Cats were favored in the 3 range. This means we're getting solid line value with the "ugly home dog" in this one. The key for the Als here is that one of their weaknesses has certainly been the play of the offensive line this season. However, Johnny Manziel gets the start at QB for Montreal here and certainly his running ability adds a factor that favors the Als in this match-up. Manziel as a run threat will keep the Hamilton defense off balance and, keep in mind, they're rushing defense is last in the league in terms of yards allowed per carry. That also makes RB Tyrell Sutton a threat to the Tiger-Cats defense as he may get more than his typical number of carries in this match-up. Additionally, Sutton has become a bigger threat in the passing game this season and that means Manziel and Sutton will both be dual threats in this match-up. This is a double revenge spot for the Als too as they lost badly in both games last season against Hamilton after previously covering each of the prior two meetings. Payback here. As strong as Ti-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli's passing numbers are this season he has thrown more picks than touchdowns on the year! Hamilton continues to be over-rated and this could be their 4th straight SU loss and, at the very least, I am projecting this one to be an ATS loss for the stumbling Tiger-Cats. Hamilton is 1-5 ATS (and SU!) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Look for the Alouettes to improve to a long-term 6-3 ATS as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points as Manziel and Sutton shine! The hungry Als are gunning hard for their first home win of the season as they won't get another chance at home until 3 weeks from now. 10* MONTREAL |
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08-02-18 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach MLB Game #954 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs (+) vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - The Marlins Pablo Lopez was slated to go last night at Atlanta but that game got rained out. The delays and waiting around in Atlanta last night won't do any favors for the Marlins here. It also doesn't help that they are 0-11 in Thursday games this season! Miami right-hander Lopez has only made 5 starts and he has been roughed up in 3 of the last 4. Lopez has given up 5 earned runs twice and 4 earned runs once in his last 4 starts. None of his starts this season have gone more than 6 innings. That also holds significance here as the Miami bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. The Phillies certainly have an edge in the bullpen department and they also hold a huge edge in terms of the starting pitchers here. Nick Pivetta gets the start for Philadelphia. He shut out the Marlins for 5 and 2/3 innings while striking out 9 in his scoreless outing versus Miami early this season. Pivetta enters this start having struck out 133 in his 106 and 2/3 innings on the season. These are fantastic numbers and the key for Pivetta is avoiding occasional mistake pitches and he has progressed in this department as the season has gone on. The Phils are 9-3 in Thursday games and 9-4 this season when playing after a day off. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the Phillies are 21-11 this season. 11 of the Phillies last 13 wins have come by 2 or more runs. Each of Miami's last 9 losses have come by 2 or more runs! That said, of course I am avoiding laying big juice here on the money line as plus money is being offered on the run line. Value! 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs |
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08-02-18 | Ottawa v. Toronto +6.5 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFL Game #372 Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Simply put this is an inflated line and it has resulted in great value on the other side. Ottawa opened up at a 3.5 point road favorite in this one and is now up to a 6.5 in most spots. Yes the Redblacks are having a much better start to this season than the Argonauts but let's not forget that Toronto is at home here plus coming off of a bad loss last week while the Redblacks are on the road plus off of a huge win last week. From a situational standpoint this spot favors the Argos in a big way and the more time back-up QB James Franklin adjusting to his starting role in the absence of the injured Ricky Ray, the more improvement we should see from him. Not only are the Argonauts a sizable dog here they have won 7 of their last 9 meetings with the Redblacks SU. Also, the Argos are 9-1 SU the last ten times they've faced Ottawa at home in Toronto! The Redblacks are 3-9 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Also, Ottawa is 2-9 ATS when off of a win against a division rival. Look for the Argonauts to improve to 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they were at home with a posted total in range of 45.5 to 49 points. 10* TORONTO |
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07-28-18 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan +6.5 | Top | 34-22 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 18 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Game #368 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 9 ET - Nice scheduling situation for the Roughriders here. They come into this game with plenty of momentum. Saskatchewan is off of back to back wins versus the Tiger-Cats which including rallying for a win by a double digit margin at Hamilton last week. Additionally, the Riders had a bye week in between the two victories over the Ti-Cats and they also hold a rest edge over the Stampeders this week. That is because Calgary is off of a Saturday win over Montreal while Saskatchewan's win at Hamilton was a Thursday game. Two extra days of rest, home field edge with arguably the most passionate fans in the CFL, and a chance to upset the a division rival who remains undefeated on the season. There is no question the Roughriders are going to be ready to go and I love the home dog value in this one. Keep in mind the Riders had a huge game on the ground last week and that balanced offensive attack (most CFL teams are pass-happy) is going to keep the Stampeders defense off-balance in this match-up. I am well aware of the fact that the Stamps have held the upper hand in recent meetings between these teams but Calgary has average just 25.3 points per game their past 3 games and their being asked to win this tough road game by 7 or more. That's a big ask and I love the home dog in this match-up. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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07-26-18 | White Sox v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 8-12 | Win | 110 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #914 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels Run Line -1.5 runs vs Chicago White Sox @ 4:05 ET - If you like the Angels to win this game you can certainly feel a comfort level playing them on the run line (1.5 runs) at a plus money price (+110 at time of this posting) rather than laying a huge money line price. All three games in this 4-game series so far have been decided by 2 or more runs. The Angels blasted the White Sox last night and I expect a repeat of that in this afternoon affair. Chicago's Dylan Covey, from 2015 to 2017, went 0-6 with a 9.58 ERA in road games as teams hit .349 against him. This season hasn't been much better as he is 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in road games. Look for Covey to get pounded here as the Angels bats are showing signs of a turnaround in recent games. Los Angeles has averaged scoring 7.5 runs per game their last 4 games. The White Sox, on the other hand, have been slumping at the plate on this road trip as they're averaging just 3.3 runs per game in the first 6 games of this 7-game trip. Their likely to struggle against Nick Tropeano as this will be his first start against them in 3 years. Tropeano, from 2015 to 2017, compiled a 2.58 ERA in his 8 day game appearances (7 starts). This season, though he is 1-3 with a modest 4.50 ERA in afternoon action, Tropeano is holding the opposition to a .184 batting average in 4 starts. Some guys fare better under the sun than under the lights and Tropeano is one of those guys. Look for that trend to continue here. Also, the White Sox are a horrific 11-35 in day games this season while the Angels are a superb 8-2 this season as a home favorite in a money line range of -175 to -250. As long-time followers know, I don't lay big prices but I certainly like the value (currently +110) by laying the 1.5 runs with LA on the run line in this one. 30 of the Angels last 38 games have been decided by 2 or more runs. 26 of Chicago's last 31 losses have come by 2 or more runs. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS Run Line -1.5 runs |
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07-14-18 | Winnipeg v. BC +4.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Canadian Connection - Rickenbach CFL Game #366 Saturday 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 10 ET - The Lions got thoroughly embarrassed last week in a 41-19 loss at Winnipeg. Look for BC to make up for that ugly defeat here at home this week. The Lions had won 3 of their 4 prior meetings with the Blue Bombers previous to last week's ugly loss. Payback time here. From a situational perspective this spot favors BC in a big way. Not only are they getting a shot at quick revenge (after last week's ugly loss), the Lions also have a non-conference match-up on deck. Although the Blue Bombers also have a match-up with an Eastern Conference foe on deck, their game is against the defending Grey Cup champion Argonauts. Look for Saturday's game to prove to be one of those where one team simply wants it more. Yes, Winnipeg is the better overall team but the situational aspect of this one is likely to leave the Blue Bombers a little flat while BC comes in fired up and hungry. Long-term the Lions are a fantastic 56-33 ATS when they are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they get the job done again here. 10* BC Lions |
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07-13-18 | Toronto v. Edmonton -9.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Game #363 Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos vs Toronto Argonauts @ 9 ET - The Eskimos will be in a foul mood after they let last week's game get away from them. Certainly some credit is due to the Argonauts for getting the "close out" score on that game but the fact is Edmonton put up a ton of yardage in the game. The Eskimos just didn't finish their drives and so they ended up short on the scoreboard. Look for them to make up for that here. Not only will Edmonton take advantage of being back at home this week, they also have a bye week on deck so they can go "all out here" and I don't foresee them taking their foot off the gas after what happened last week against this same Toronto team. The Eskimos had won 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Argonauts before last week's loss. At home Edmonton has won 6 of the last 7 meetings SU. Now, of course, the number here is a sizable one so the Eskimos don't just need a SU win, they need a blowout. But that is precisely what I feel occurs here as Edmonton has revenge and has a bye week on deck. The D will be fired up after giving up the late score last week and the offense will be too after they scored far too few points last week considering the way they moved the ball down the field all game long. That means both units for the Eskimos are bringing their "A game" this week. The Argos are just 8-17 ATS in non-conference games and 10-17 ATS last 27 times they've been an underdog. In other words, blowout time here! 10* EDMONTON |
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07-10-18 | Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #966 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -1.5 runs vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox rolled 5-0 last night as the Rangers struggles continue. Texas has lost 6 of its last 8 games and they've scored an average of only 1.5 runs per game their last 4 games! Boston, on the other hand, is rolling and has won 7 straight and 14 of their last 17 games! The Red Sox have averaged scoring 7 runs per game their last 13 games! Boston is using Hector Velazquez for a spot start here. Though he is mostly used as a long reliever, Velazquez has been solid nonetheless in his MLB career as this is his 2nd season and so far he has compiled a 9-1 record with a 2.82 ERA in the majors. Texas is not familiar with him and is likely to struggle. Speaking of struggles, the Rangers Yovani Gallardo has incredibly gone 3-0 as a starter for Texas even though he has a 5.87 ERA in his 4 starts. Keep in mind he has not had an ERA below 5.42 since the 2015 season! Gallardo has a 2.13 WHIP in his last two starts versus the Red Sox as both walks and hits allowed have been an issue. This one has the makings of a complete mismatch on the mound and we can get a great number on this game by laying the 1.5 runs with Boston on the run line. The Red Sox last 37 victories have featured 34 wins by 2 or more runs. In other words, when they win they almost always win by a multiple run margin. As for the Rangers, only 10 of their 52 losses this season have been one-run defeats. Great odds on a home blowout here! 10* BOSTON Run Line -1.5 runs |
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07-09-18 | Phillies -1.5 v. Mets | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -110 @ New York Mets @ 7:40 ET (Game 2 of double header) - This should be a dominating road win for the Phillies but, of course, I am not going to lay nearly 2 to 1 odds on the money line. The value here is on the run line where we get the Phillies at a pick'em price in a game that should prove to be a complete mismatch. Note that the Mets are 0-8 this season in home games where they are an underdog in a range of +125 to +175. Overall at home this season, New York enters Monday with one of the worst records in MLB at 15-28 on the year. The Phillies Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and Philadelphia has won each of his last 5 starts and 12 of his last 14 overall. In terms of "comfort level" with laying the 1.5 runs with the Phillies here, note that 16 of the Mets last 17 losses have come by a margin of 2 runs or more. While Nola has been dominant this season, a struggling Corey Oswalt gets the start for the Mets here. The young right-hander has a 10.79 ERA in his two starts this season and 2018 is the first year that Oswalt has pitched any higher than the AA level in the minors. The fact is that it has not gone well. Even at AAA Las Vegas, Oswalt has compiled a 5.32 ERA in his 10 starts. He'll be in trouble here trying to match Nola in putting up zeros on the scoreboard. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs (Game 2 of double header) |
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07-07-18 | Edmonton -3 v. Toronto | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Game #355 Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) @ Toronto Argonauts @ 5:30 ET - The Argonauts are off of their bye week while the Eskimos are off of a rather satisfying blowout win over the Lions. As a result, 0-2 Toronto is getting a lot of respect from the betting markets here and this line has been coming down all week on road favorite Edmonton. The fact is that it was practically a miracle that the Argos won the Grey Cup last year and they are still being held up too high in the eyes of the markets. Yes, they are at home and rested and hungry but they're just not a very good football team. Even last year when they won it all, the Argonauts went only 3-7 in the regular season in games against the West Division. The West is simply superior to the East and it has been this way for multiple seasons now. As for the Eskimos, they went 7-1 in regular season games against the East Division. So here we have a team in an 88% winning spot laying just 3 points against a team in a 30% winning spot. I'll gladly take advantage of the line movement here and lay the small number with the road favorite. The Eskimos are 10-6 SU and ATS in games where their line ranges from -3 to +3. As for Toronto, they are 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS with those same parameters. Also, just because the Argonauts have lost 2 in a row it does not mean they're going to bounce back. In fact, the Argos are 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS the last dozen times they've entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games! 10* EDMONTON |
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07-06-18 | Ottawa v. Montreal +7.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #354 Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Ottawa RedBlacks @ 7:30 ET - Nice set up for the home dog here. Montreal is off of a confidence-boosting win at Saskatchewan last week. Yes QB Drew Lilly got hurt and may not be available this week but they've got two capable back-ups at the ready this week. The Alouettes are now back home where they are looking to make up for an absolutely disgusting home opener two weeks ago. Not only that but the Als have a bye on deck as they are not in action last week. Their situation is much better than that of the RedBlacks. Ottawa is on the road again for a 2nd straight week and, though this is a divisional game, it is "only" Montreal. As a result, the RedBlacks - whom lost at Calgary last week - could get caught looking ahead to a home rematch with the Stampeders coming up on Thursday. You can see why this scheduling situation favors Montreal and the fact is that Ottawa would love to be the first team to hand undefeated Calgary a loss. That said, the fact this line has moved all the way up to a 7.5 is offering exceptional underdog value on the Alouettes. The Als are a long-term 3-1 ATS as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points and all 3 of those wins were outright upset victories! As for Ottawa, they've gone an ugly 2-8 ATS (and only 3-7 SU!) the last 10 times they've been favored in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Look for the home dog to have plenty of fight in this one as Coach Mike Sherman has rallied the troops with last week's win and has this team believing. They certainly won't "lay an egg" like they did in their first home game this season. Alouettes battle hard here and, even if they fall short of the outright upset, they get the all-important cover. 10* MONTREAL |
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07-01-18 | Royals v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #926 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Mariners Run Line -1.5 runs vs Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - The Royals, surprisingly, did notch 9 hits yesterday. However, not surprisingly, only 1 of Kansas City's 9 hits went for extra bases. The fact is that, after that 3-run homer in the first inning for KC yesterday they were quite quiet the rest of the way. The Royals are simply a very bad team and they are totally out-classed here based on the pitching match-up Sunday. Seattle, as a result, is a huge money line favorite in this match-up. However, by utilizing the run line we get a very fair price on the Mariners in a game they should easily win by a margin of 2 or more runs. Note that James Paxton is a superb 7-2 with a 3.56 ERA this season. The M's southpaw has struck out 19 in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts and the Royals sub-par lineup will struggle here. Paxton has a 2.54 ERA in his 5 career starts versus Kansas City and he has struck out 17 Royals in his last 12 innings against them. The Royals counter with Brad Keller and he is off of his first career MLB winner as a starter. Off a gem like he just threw (albeit at home) look for him to quickly come crashing back down on the road against a tough Mariners lineup. Keller's two prior starts had seen him allow 14 hits and 7 walks in just 11 and 1/3 innings. Seattle has won 6 straight games and 7 of their last 8. Six of those eight games were decided by 2 or more runs. The Royals have lost 20 of their last 24 games. Also, Kansas City's has seen 13 of its last 16 defeats come by 2 or more runs! Run Line Rout here! 10* SEATTLE -1.5 runs |
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06-30-18 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan -10 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #378 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 9 ET - The big story out of Saskatchewan this week is the loss of QB Zach Collaros to injury. He got hurt in last week's action and now has put on the 6-game list so he is going to be out for awhile. This line had opened up at 10 and moved up to as high as a 12 and now, after the injury news was confirmed Tuesday afternoon, it has dropped down to as low as a -10 again. The fact is that Brandon Bridge is a very capable back-up and his athleticism (behind a suspect Roughriders offensive line) is an added plus. Speaking of suspect offensive lines, the Alouettes have been awful in the trenches and that certainly has played a role in Montreal scoring just 10 points in each of their first two games. Once again, just like last week, the Als are "saying all the right things" heading into this game but that didn't help them in Week 2 and it won't help them this week either. The fact is that if Montreal couldn't get their house in order for their home opener last week they're really going to struggle on the road this week. That's because Saskatchewan is angry off of a loss last week and will be ready to respond. The Roughriders had beaten the Grey Cup Champion Argonauts in Week 1 and, not surprisingly, came out flat at Ottawa last week and got drilled. Now, off of a 40-17 loss, the Riders will respond at home this week. Last season they went 6-2 against East Division teams and Montreal is now 3-17 since the start of last season. Too many penalties, an inability to score points, a questionable secondary...the list goes on for the trouble Alouettes. On Saturday night they are in the wrong place at the wrong time and this gets ugly! 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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06-23-18 | Calgary -3.5 v. Toronto | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #367 Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - There was only 1 upset in Week 1 of CFL action and I expect that to be the case again when Week 2 is in the books. That upset happened last night when Hamilton won at Edmonton. As for the other games this week, favored Ottawa rolled Saskatchewan Thursday and favored Winnipeg crushed Montreal yesterday. Look for another one 3-1 SU week for the favorites as Calgary gets the win at Toronto tonight. This is a revenge spot for the Stampeders as they lost the Grey Cup game (for the 2nd straight season!) in November and that defeat came at the hands of the Argonauts. Calgary's defense looked like they are jelling quicker than expected the way the played in Week 1. Also, the Stampeders showed a very balanced attack on offense. Keep in mind Toronto had only 5 points through the first three quarters in their Week 1 loss and this one truly does have road rout written all over it. The East/West dichotomy continues to show the strength of West Division teams compared to those from the East Division. Toronto went just 3-7 against teams from the West last season while the Stamps were a solid 6-1-1 against teams from the East last season. The Stampeders also have gone 14-2 SU (11-5 ATS) the past two seasons against teams with a losing record. The Argonauts have gone 6-10 SU (and ATS) versus teams with a winning record the past two season. 10* CALGARY |
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06-22-18 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +2 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -106 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Game #364 Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - Certainly this qualifies as a contrarian play but trends have a funny way of reversing after being hugely "off" in one year. Last season the Alouettes were the worst ATS team in the league as they went 4-14 ATS. The Blue Bombers were the best ATS team in the league as they went 13-5 ATS. Winnipeg did get the cover in week one but it was a painful SU loss for them as they gave up a late TD pass at Edmonton which tied the game and then, soon after that, allowed the game-winning field goal. That is a heart-breaking gut-wrenching road loss that is tough to get over. Keep in mind the Blue Bombers were eliminated from the post-season by the Eskimos last year so they wanted that game badly. This makes the situation even tougher to deal with. Adding another element to the value with Montreal here is that the Blue Bombers have had so much success against them in recent meetings that it is easy for Winnipeg to overlook the Alouettes. Last week's game the Blue Bombers were fully focused and yet still lost (toughest type of loss in final minutes) and now Winnipeg is facing a team they normally overlook. This is a very tricky and tough situation for the road team and the Blue Bombers are still wishing they had a healthy Matt Nichols at QB. Everyone will be looking at the small road fave in this one but the highly-motivated home team playing their home opener will be ready to go here. The Alouettes hung in until the 4th quarter at BC last week and that was a great opportunity to work in changes in term of personnel and coaching. They'll be better for it (and still hungry) here in Week Two and now at home. 10* MONTREAL |
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06-14-18 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs -110 @ Oakland A's @ 3:35 ET - Frankie Montas gets the start for the Athletics here and his numbers are impressive so far in his first 3 starts at the MLB level. However, his first start was at home against the Diamondbacks and Arizona has a batting average of .225 in road games which ranks them 14th out of the 15 NL teams. Then, the next two starts for Montas were each against the Royals and Kansas City has a slugging percentage of .377 this season which ranks them 14th out of the 15 AL teams. As you can see, Montas really hasn't been tested yet and he now is facing the World Champion Astros. After yesterday's 13-5 win, Houston has won 7 straight games and 5 of the 7 victories have come by a margin of 2 runs or more. The Astros have averaged scoring 7.1 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. The A's, on the other hand, have lost 6 of their last 10 games and Oakland has averaged scoring only 3.7 runs per game during this 10-game stretch. With Justin Verlander on the mound for Houston, things are highly unlikely to improve for the Athletics here. The Houston right-hander is 6-1 with a 0.96 ERA in his 7 road starts this season! The Astros have won 9 of Verlander's starts this season and all 9 victories came by a margin of 2 or more runs. This looks like a great spot for another one! 10* Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs -110 |
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06-10-18 | Yankees -1.5 v. Mets | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 runs @ New York Mets @ 8:05 ET - The Mets have lost 10 straight home games after losing again yesterday! Of course I am not going to lay -250 with the Yankees on the run line but there is sufficient value to justify laying the -140 price on the run line in this one. Of course that means the Yankees have to win this game by 2 runs or more but that is quite likely given the dominance that Luis Severino has displayed both last season and this season as well. So far in 2018, Severino has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his 13 starts. The Yankees are 12-1 in his 13 starts this season and only 3 of the 13 starts resulted in a 1-run game. I know Seth Lugo has good numbers on the season but that has mostly come out of the bullpen. He is being used as a spot starter here and he has only made 1 start this season and that lasted just 4 innings. The Yankees are 9-1 their last 10 games and have averaged scoring 5 runs per game. The Mets have averaged only 1.4 runs per game during their current 8-game losing streak. This one has the makings of a 5-1 or 6-2 type game as Severino gave up 0 earned runs while striking out 9 in 6 and 1/3 innings in his lone career start versus the Mets (last season). The Mets are a long-term 1-5 as a home dog of +175 or more and the Yankees 42 wins this season have featured 29 by 2 runs or more. That means roughly 70% of Yanks wins do come by 2 runs or more and I love the value here with the run line as the Mets slump should continue and the big road fave should dominate. 10* NEW YORK YANKEES Run Line |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
Easy as ABC - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - In Cavaliers games the home team has covered 8 of the last 11. Also, Cleveland is off of 3 straight losses but hasn't lost 4 straight games since a losing streak in early to mid-January. So you have to go back nearly 5 months to find the last time the Cavs have lost 4 in a row. I don't expect that to happen here either but am happy to grab the value with the points should Cleveland fall just short here. The Cavaliers, since the calendar turned from April to May, have shot much better when on their home floor EXCEPT for Game 3. Entering that Game 3, Cleveland had shot at least 47% from the field in all 5 games and the Cavs had averaged 113.8 points per game in their 5 prior home games. The Warriors have averaged only 102.5 points per game in their last 4 road games. Golden State is on a 15-27 ATS run against teams with a winning record and the Warriors are 10-23 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 37-14 SU when at home this season and also they've gone 5-3 SU in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. Even though the Cavaliers are down 3-0 in this series, the Game 1 loss was in OT and the Game 3 defeat was a tie game very late. That said, the available points here in a game that the Cavaliers will be desperate for - at home and looking to avoid an embarrassing sweep - I like the value of LeBron James and Company as a home dog. 10* CLEVELAND |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - In Cavaliers games the home team has covered 8 of the last 10. Also, Cleveland is off of back to back losses but hasn't lost 3 straight games since a losing streak in early to mid-January. So you have to go back nearly 5 months to find the last time the Cavs have lost 3 in a row. I don't expect that to happen here either but am happy to grab the value with the points should Cleveland fall just short here. The Cavaliers, since the calendar turned from April to May, have shot much better when on their home floor. Cleveland has shot at least 47% from the field in all 5 games and the Cavs have averaged 113.8 points per game in their last 5 home games. The Warriors have averaged only 100 points per game in their last 3 road games and were held to 45.9% or less in 6 of their last 10 road games before a strong shooting effort to close out the Rockets at Houston in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State is on a 14-27 ATS run against teams with a winning record and the Warriors are 9-23 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 37-13 SU when at home this season and also they've gone 5-2 in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. With 2 days of rest between games and coming back home and having been so close to the upset win in Game 1, look for a huge effort from the Cavaliers at home in this one as they get back into the series with a great performance. 10* CLEVELAND |
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06-01-18 | Yankees -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Friday 10* Top Play New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees have won 26 of their last 33 games and 17 of those 26 wins have come by at least 2 runs. Of course I don't lay big money line prices so that is why I am utilizing the run line here to get the Yankees at a pick'em price. They should win big here as the Orioles are having a miserable season and 29 of their 39 losses on the year have come by 2 or more runs. I know that the Yankees Sonny Gray has been up and down this season but he is a groundball pitcher and he got a bunch of groudball outs in his most recent road start (4 hits in 8 innings at Kansas City) and in his only start against these Orioles this season (4 hits in 6 innings). Couple that with the fact that Baltimore is 3-9 their last 12 games and has been to 3 runs or less in 11 of those 12 games and you can see why I am expecting Gray to have a good start here. As for the O's Andrew Cashner, he is in trouble against the Bronx Bombers. He has had success against the Yankees in recent meetings but his current form suggests this is going to be a very tough outing for him. Cashner has given up 24 hits plus walked 10 in the less than 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Orioles have lost 8 of the 11 starts Cashner has made this season and 7 of those 8 defeats have come by at least 2 runs. 10* Top Play New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) |
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05-31-18 | Cavs +13 v. Warriors | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Easy as ABC - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Of course this game is televised on ABC so that is where the play title comes from but truly the hope is that this cover is indeed as "Easy as ABC" tonight. The fact is that the Warriors barely got by a Rockets team sans Chris Paul in the final two games of the series and that also short horrific from three point land. Of course Houston relies heavily on the 3-ball so the nearly unbelievably poor shooting from downtown was ultimately the nail in the coffin for the Rockets. Now, after winning by only 9 at Houston in Game 7 despite the Rockets being without Paul and unable to "throw the ball in the ocean" (their shooting was so OFF!), the Warriors are as high as a 13 point favorite against a Cavaliers team that is starting to believe they can pull off the unthinkable. Keep in mind, Boston is VERY well-coached and yet the Cavaliers still managed to get past the Celtics in Boston in Game 7 with a valiant effort by LeBron James and Company. The Warriors, in the Rockets series, certainly haven't looked as invincible as they have in the past and the Cavs are well aware of the fact that they are being given absolutely "no chance" in this series. Highly motivated and well rested, LeBron and his eager teammates are absolutely going to hang around in this game one and put up a big challenge to the Warriors. Simply put, I just don't see this game being decided by more than single digits. Cavs are 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season and the Warriors are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season. 10* Top Play CLEVELAND |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - I will not be surprised if Chris Paul plays tonight and if he is also very effective. However, even if he doesn't, one should not forget that the Rockets (sans Paul) led the Warriors by double digits at the half on Saturday and that game was at Golden State. Yes they got blown out in the second half but Houston certainly garnered some confidence from that first half performance and now they get Game 7 at home. The Rockets are 41-9 SU at home this season and 21-6 SU when playing with revenge and 15-3 SU when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. The Houston offense has certainly struggled for long stretches on the road in these playoffs but the Rockets have averaged 112 points per game in their last 7 home games and I expect a huge performance tonight. The Warriors are a long-term 6-10 SU when tied in a playoff series and that includes 2-3 SU and ATS the last 3 seasons combined. In other words they are far from "automatic" in a spot like this and the fact is that these points are very generous. The Warriors have covered only 22 of their last 60 versus teams with a winning record! Golden State is 9-16 (36%) ATS their last 25 road games. I am expecting the upset here but am grabbing the points because if the Rockets do fall short it is likely to be by just a bucket or two. They are not going down without a fight here whether Paul plays or not. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - Well aware of the fact that the Celtics are 10-0 at home in the post-season. Also well aware of the fact that the Cavaliers are without Kevin Love for this game. However, after he went out in Game 6 (head injury), the Cavs were "off and running" thanks in large part to LeBron James. The fact is I simply can not play against him in a Game 7. While it is true that one man does not make a team, he is also a leader for this Cavaliers team and the fact is that his team has a 5-0 record in his last 5 Game 7's. The last loss was all the way back in 2008 and, ironically, that defeat came at the hands of the Celtics. However, this is LeBron's 15th season and that game was 10 years ago! James has matured, of course, a ton since then and I look for his team record in Game 7 match-ups to make it 6 in a row on Sunday night! I know venue has had a lot do with it but lets also not forget that the Celtics have lost 3 of the last 4 games in this series. It is hard to believe that with coaching adjustments at half-time (Brad Stevens is a fantastic coach) and with Love being out of the game, the Celtics still couldn't close this out in Game 6. Boston has had so many chances to really truly take a stranglehold on this series (after being up 2-0) and they just never did it. Now they pay the ultimate price for that in my opinion. It is VERY rare for a 7-game series to go 7 games and have the home team win every single game and I look for this one to avoid that rare exception in the record books too. Remember James and Company won Game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2016 at Golden State! I am calling for the upset but will grab the points being offered! 10* CLEVELAND |
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05-25-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - The way I see it the Cavs had their chance in this series and blew it in Game 5. Cleveland had all the momentum after winning big in Games 3 and 4 at home but then went and laid an egg on the road Wednesday. Knowing that Game 7 would also be on the road and that Boston is a perfect 10-0 at home in the post-season, this is in the back of the minds of the Cavaliers whether they admit to it or not. The fact is that the Celtics now have the Cavs on the ropes and if Cleveland does somehow pull this one out I expect it to be a very tight win. Keep in mind, prior to the blowout wins in Games 3 and 4 of this series and finishing off the Raptors in Game 4 in a rout, the Cavaliers 6 prior home wins had all come by a margin of 6 points or less! In fact they are known this season for just squeaking by in games. That is why the Cavaliers are 23-49 ATS as a favorite this season and 16-33 ATS in home games! Boston is 23-10 ATS as an underdog this season. The last 5 times the Cavs were off of a double digit loss they've actually gone only 3-2 SU. In other words, even bouncing back for a SU win here is not a given and also 2 of those 3 SU wins came by 4 points or less. In other words, laying 7 points off of a double digit loss would have resulted in a 1-4 ATS record for the Cavs since April 1st. I am grabbing the big dog value with the Celtics in this one as finally we see a road team cover in this series! 10* BOSTON |
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05-23-18 | Cavs +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - The Celtics didn't just lose Game 3 in Cleveland, they got crushed. Boston followed that up with a better effort in Game 4 but they still were down by double digits nearly the entire game. The points is that the Cavaliers didn't just beat them, they destroyed them. As much as I respect the coaching of Brad Stevens, the head man for Boston can only do so much and the veteran edge the Cavs roster has is paying dividends as this series has gone on. The fact that the Cavaliers didn't just win but won huge in Cleveland means they now have all the momentum plus a ton of confidence as this series goes back to Boston for Game 5. Keep in mind, Boston has gone 9-0 on their home floor in the post-season but this game is priced this way for a reason and it is certainly no mistake. Look for the Cavs to get the upset win Wednesday and take a stranglehold on this series. LeBron James is back in the zone and what people don't realize is their hot shooting has been there since before this series started. It is not as if the Cavs are just getting "lucky" with their shots. They've been on fire dating back to the Raptors series. Yes they had one very poor shooting effort (Game 1 of this series) but in their other 6 games the past 3 weeks they've hit a combined 52.2% from the field. That is NOT one game, that is a combined average for SIX games! That is HOT shooting that Boston only wishes they could achieve. The Celtics have been held under 44.8% in 5 of their last 6 games. Big difference here and the Cavs have the best player on the floor, the momentum, the experience edge, and the confidence factor. The Cavaliers are a long-term 17-6 SU their last 23 games versus the Celtics and that includes 8-4 SU and ATS their last 12 in Boston. Yes, the Celtics took it to them in Game 1 here but the Cavs were up 7 points at the half in Game 2 on this floor. With the way the tide has turned in this series, look for LeBron and Company to again jump on the Celtics early with a big first half in Boston and, this time, they hang on for the win over a dejected Celtics team that is now (though they wouldn't admit it) doubting themselves. 10* CLEVELAND |
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05-19-18 | Rays +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Run Line +1.5 runs (-130) @ Los Angeles Angels @ 9:05 ET - We have to lay a little bit of juice to have the run line here but that could prove key should the Rays fall just short here and lose by a run. The fact is that Tampa Bay (5 in a row) has the longest winning streak in the majors right now while Los Angeles (4 in a row) has the longest losing streak in MLB currently. The Rays are hitting and the Angels are not. TB has averaged 6.5 runs and 12 hits per game their last 4 games. LA has averaged just 2.3 runs per game their last 8 games. The Angels are just 2-6 during this stretch and both wins came by a single run. That said, this is a great spot to have the +1.5 as playing against LA with a +1.5 would have delivered 8 straight wins at the sports books! The Angels are averaging just 5.7 hits per game their last 7 games. While it is true that Andrew Heaney has been pitching well for Los Angeles, the Rays are a very confident team right now at the plate and loaded with right-handed lumber. Though Sergio Romo has been a reliever throughout his career, the Tampa Bay right-hander will not be asked to pitch deep into this game. He'll quickly be relieved by rookie southpaw Ryan Yarbrough and he has pitched very well this season. Also, the Angels are ranked 12th out of 15 teams in the AL in terms of batting average versus lefties and Yarbrough is likely to get the majority of the innings today. As for the Rays facing lefty Heaney, Tampa Bay ranks 5th out of all 30 teams in MLB in terms of batting average versus southpaws. Ride the hot team and currently the better hitting team as well. One more key stat here. The Angels are 2-9 SU their last 11 home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Both wins came by a single run. That means if you just took the +1.5 runs against the Angels in each of their last 11 home games with an O/U posted at 8 or 8.5 runs, you are a PERFECT 11-0! I like the sounds of that! 10* Tampa Bay Rays Run line +1.5 runs |
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05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Tremendous value here as everyone expects the Cavaliers to bounce back since they are at home and they have dug an 0-2 hole in this series. There are many problems with that theory however. First off, this is LeBron James weakest supporting cast in his tenure with the Cavs. Secondly, the Cavaliers best shot for a blowout home win would be to get hot from the outside and start draining shot after shot. The long layoff in this series won't help in that regard. These teams haven't played since Tuesday and Boston is 5-1 SU and ATS this season when playing with 3 or more days of rest this season while Cleveland is 0-4 SU and ATS with those same parameters this season! The issue for the Cavs is that generally when they are shooting cold (and certainly the Celtics are tough defensively) they stay cold. The Cavaliers this season are an ugly 1-6 ATS when they enter a game having been held under 100 points in each of their 2 prior games. In other words, don't look for the Cavs to start suddenly draining all kinds of shots in this game. In fact, with their loss in Game 2 (scored 94) after scoring just 83 in Game 1, Cleveland is now 4-17 ATS this season when off of a game where they were held under 100 points! Should the Cavs find a way to get a home win and crawl back into this series don't be surprised if it is a non-covering win. Cleveland is only 8-6 SU in their last 14 games and 6 of those 8 wins have come by a margin of 4 points or less! Look for the Cavaliers to drop to 0-5 ATS on the season when they are playing with 3 or more days of rest. 10* BOSTON |
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05-13-18 | Capitals v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #56 Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line -1.5 goals +155 vs Washington Capitals @ 8:05 ET - The Lighting are going to respond in a huge way after the Game 1 loss. Of course I am not going to lay 2 to 1 odds with the Bolts on the money line. I don't play big priced money line faves in NHL or MLB. However, I am expecting a blowout out here and that is why I am grabbing the huge value with Tampa Bay as high as a +155 return on investment on the puck line. Of course one can't just blindly lay the -1.5 goals but there is certainly ample support here for doing just that. The last 14 times that Tampa Bay has notched a win off of a loss, 13 of the 14 victories have come by 2 goals or more! Also, 14 of the Capitals 21 road losses this season have come by 2 goals or more. This includes EACH of Washington's last 5 losses away from home. All 5 of those road defeats have come by a multiple goal margin. The fact is that I look for a huge response from Tampa Bay here as they even up the series on home ice and you can see why recent trending like the 13-1 and 5-0 above fully support that this victory should come by at least a 2-goal margin! The Bolts are a long-term 23-10 when trailing in a playoff series. TB is also 23-9 when playing with revenge this season and that includes a razor sharp 11-3 when it is home loss revenge! After losing a game by a margin of 2 goals or more, the Lightning have bounced back - 14-5 this season! More of the same here in an expected home blowout! 10* TAMPA BAY Puck Line -1.5 goals +155 |
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05-09-18 | 76ers +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - Most all of you have likely heard the expression "let sleeping dogs lie". It is an old saying that essentially means this: avoid interfering in a situation that is currently causing no problems but might do so as a result of such interference. Here is the problem with the Celtics and what they did in Game 4 at Philly. Certainly entering the game the 76ers were dogs and Boston would have been better off not doing anything to provoke them. Instead the game became quite "testy" and at one point Philly native Marcus Morris (Celtics player) flashed a 3-0 signal with his hands to remind the Sixers what the series score was. Needless to say that is like twisting a stick into the belly of a sleeping dog. Philly head coach Brett Brown made a great move by starting TJ McConnell in Game 4 and he had a career game for the 76ers as it paid off huge for Philly. Lets not forget the Celtics are extremely well coached but still would be a much better team if they had Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward on the floor. The more talented team in this series (with those two guys missing for Boston) is Philadelphia. They are plenty alive and awake now and remember they lost Game 3 in OT and also the Game 2 loss at Boston was a narrow one. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA but the Sixers are well aware that they just need one win here to send this series back to Philly with a chance to tie it up. They are rejuvenated and ironically one of the few times in the NHL in which a team won a series after being down 3-0 was when the Philadelphia (Flyers) rallied against the Boston (Bruins) in 2010. Boston had the home ice edge there just like the Celtics do in this series. This Sixers team is absolutely rejuvenated and revitalized after the Game 4 win and they carry extra motivation after some of what went on in Game 4 on the court. I also like the fact that at one point the line on this game was 76ers -1.5 but the markets are loving the Celtics here and now it is Boston that is much as a -1.5 point favorite as of early game day morning. I love fading line moves like this and look for Boston to drop to 5-8 SU the last 13 times they've been leading in a playoff series as the Sixers improve to 24-11 SU the last 35 times they were off of a win by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | Top | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Most will be looking for the Cavaliers, up 3-0 in this series, to close it out on their home floor Monday. However, even if Cleveland does that, it would not be too surprising if the Cavs fall short of the cover. After all, with Game 3's non-covering win, the Cavaliers are now 20-49 ATS as a favorite this season and also 13-33 ATS in home games! The loss for the Raptors marked the first time this season that they've lost 3 straight games. That is certainly noteworthy as Toronto is 5-2 ATS in recent seasons when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, the Raptors are 5-0 ATS (100% PERFECT) this season when they are an underdog of 4 or more points. As of very early game day morning, Toronto is catching a half-dozen points here and this is offering great value with the hungry underdog. The Raptors, with their cover Saturday, are now 6-1 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games. I expect Toronto to gut out a win and stay alive in this series. However, if they do fall short, look for it to be by 4 points or less. 6 of Cleveland's 7 playoff wins in this post-season have come by 4 points or less. 10* TORONTO |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - This line doesn't make sense which is precisely why I am backing the dog here. The Cavs just finished up winning both games at Toronto including demolishing the Raptors in convincing fashion in Game 2 and yet now they are at home and opened up as only a 3.5 point favorite. Of course markets jumped all over that and have driven the line all the way up to as high as a 5 as of early game day morning. Going contrarian as per usual I am on the other side of this move. The Cavaliers only turned the ball over a total of 8 times in the first two games. This is ridiculous and will change. The Cavs averaged 14 turnovers per game in their prior 8 games before averaging just 4 turnovers per game their last 2. As for the Raptors they had forced an average of 13 turnovers per game in their 4 games previous to allowing an average of only 4 in the last two games versus the Cavs. Also, Cleveland is not going to shoot 59.5% from the field again in Game 3 like they did in Game 2. It didn't matter what they were throwing up Thursday night it was going in. That is helping to lead to value here for the hungry Raptors. Toronto is 14-4 SU off of an upset loss as a favorite this season and they also are 16-5 SU after allowing 115 points or more. The Cavaliers are just 20-47 ATS as a favorite and only 13-31 ATS in home games this season. Cleveland also is 2-10 ATS in Saturday games this season. More of the same here. 10* TORONTO |
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05-04-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +4.5 | Top | 113-92 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #516 Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 10:35 ET - 3-point shooting comes and goes. The Rockets were the hot team in Game 1 and the Jazz were the hot team in Game 2 from beyond the arc. However, lets talk about what is going on inside the arc so far in this series. Houston has made 48 of 108 shots from 2-point land for a 44% shooting percentage while Utah has made a ridiculous 59 of 105 shots from inside the arc for a stellar 56% shooting percentage. You can tell who is getting the higher percentage shots / better looks at the basket so far in this series. Also, the Jazz have a shot 59.6% from the free throw line so far in this series. That is unusual and certainly won't continue based on their full season mark of 77.9% from the charity stripe. The Rockets defense has been subpar and they are 3-7 ATS this season when they enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive overs. The point is that when Houston is not playing good defense and games are flying over the total, they generally don't cover spreads either! Also, the Rockets are a long-term 6-11 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series. Utah is 3-1 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series and they'll ride the momentum of the big Game 2 win plus returning to their home floor tonight. Note that the Jazz are 16-6 SU after scoring 115 points or more in a game this season and also 19-5 SU in their last 24 games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. 10* UTAH |
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05-03-18 | 76ers -4 v. Celtics | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - The Celtics won Game 1 and that is perfect for setting up insane value here. Don't be surprised if that is the only game that Boston wins in this series. The scene will shift to Philly for Games 3 and 4 after tonight's game and I just don't see the Celtics winning again here. Did the 76ers perhaps come in overconfident Monday? One thing is for certainly Philadelphia head coach Brett Brown will have his team ready to go here and Boston is NOT going to make 17 of 36 three pointers again! Keep in mind, the Celtics outscored the Sixers by 36 points from three point land! If the teams were just "even" from beyond the arc, Philadelphia wins Game 1 by a 20 point margin! The 76ers dominated the boards in Game 1 and also did a better job of getting to the free throw line as they had very nearly twice as many attempts as Boston. Additionally, from inside the arc, Philly made 30 shots while the Celtics made only 24. There is an old saying about "live by the three die by the three" and the fact is that Boston only won Game 1 because of 3-point shooting and that is certainly not expected to continue here. In their 5 prior games, the Celtics were held to 34.6% or less in all 5 games! Boston is also banged up and the Sixers certainly hold the "health edge" here. When playing with 2 days of rest between games the 76ers went 12-4 ATS this season while the Celtics went 6-8 SU. Look for Boston to drop to 3-7 SU the last 10 times they have held a lead in a playoff series. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-02-18 | Jazz +11 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - There are some statistical outliers from Game 1 of this series that make this a fantastic spot to grab the big dog. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 1 by only 14 points even though the Rockets hit a ridiculous 17 of 32 from three point land and Utah made only 13 of 22 free throws! Yes, Houston is known for their 3-point shooting but they hit only 36.2% on the season. The Jazz actually hit 36.5% of their threes on the season! As for that unusual free throw shooting, Utah made 77% of their shots from the charity stripe on the season. The point is that, given normal shooting of free throws and three pointers, the JAZZ would have WON Game 1 by 8 points! That's right, Utah would have made 1 more three and 4 more free throws while the Rockets would have made 5 less threes. The result is a 22 point swing from a 14 point win for Houston to a win for Utah by a margin of 8 points. The beauty here is we don't need the Jazz to win, we just need them to cover and, as you can see, Game 1 had some crazy shooting results and yet the Rockets still barely covered! I am all over the value with big dog Utah in Game 2. The Jazz are 18-5 SU their last 23 game against team that average 106 points or more per game and they are also 10-6 SU/ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Rockets are 5-10 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Certainly the extra time off sometimes effects the shooting stroke of Houston's outside shooters. 10* UTAH |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Tuesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Steph Curry is expected back for tonight's game. Of course this has resulted in a jump in this line. However, will he be 100%? Will he be ready to step right in without disrupting the current flow of the Warriors? The fact is that he has hardly played in the past two months. Will there be an adjustment phase for both Curry and for Golden State in terms of working him back into the mix? I absolutely believe so and there is excellent value with a hungry Pelicans team off of an embarrassing loss in Game 1 and catching huge points in Game 2. Keep in mind Golden State was just "making everything" in the first half of that Game 1 victory and that got New Orleans into a big hole early. That will not be the case tonight and you're going to see the Pelicans playing with plenty of resolve and determination after the embarrassment of Game 1's result. Keep in mind, New Orleans entered this series on a 9-0 SU and ATS run their last 9 games. The Pelicans have averaged 116.5 points per game their last 10 games. New Orleans is 7-4 ATS (and 8-3 SU) when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, the Pelicans are 28-16 ATS in road games this season. The Warriors are only 6-9 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games and also are 1-8 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Golden State is on an 8-20 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they are over-priced here. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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04-29-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-110 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 3:35 ET - The Jazz are without point guard Ricky Rubio and the line has really jumped on this game as a result. Utah is approaching being a dog by a dozen points here. Keep in mind, they lost Rubio to a strained hamstring very early in their series clinching win over Oklahoma City Friday. In other words, they played just fine without him. Sure Rubio contributes in a lot of ways but it certainly hadn't been his shooting in the Thunder series. He was in an awful slump and the time out with the hamstring injury may not be such a bad thing for Rubio (to get back on track) or for the Jazz as they'll compensate well for his absence here. Utah has multiple ways to modify their lineup sans Rubio and they'll be just fine here so I am glad to contrarian and grab the extra value here as everyone jumps on the Rockets at home. Houston struggled to find their rhythm on offense for long stretches in their series with the Timberwolves. They did not shoot the ball particularly well until the Game 5 victory. Now the Rockets will have to contend with a much tougher defense than what Minnesota presented. The Jazz use their defense to take down better offensive teams. That is why Utah is on an 18-4 SU run (16-6 ATS) versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, the Jazz are 6-2 ATS in Sunday games this season. The Rockets are just 4-8 ATS their last 12 games. Also, when Houston enters a game on a totals streak of 3 or more consecutive overs, they've gone 2-6 ATS this season. Look for the Jazz defense to be the difference maker here. 10* UTAH |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans +9 v. Warriors | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Stephen Curry is likely coming back for the Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. That has caused this line to jump up to a 9 as of early game day morning. The fact is that he is unlikely to be 100% right out of the gate and his shooting is also unlikely to be as sharp as usually. Keep in mind, Curry has hardly seen any game action since very early March. Golden State is hosting a red hot Pelicans team that also has added confidence from winning on this very floor in early April. That victory is part of the red hot 9-0 SU/ATS run that the Pelicans are bringing into this game. It is no fluke either as New Orleans is 9-3 SU/ATS their last 12 road games! When a team is that hot and winning like that away from home, they are a force to be reckoned with and I like the added line value here of this one now approaching double digits! The Pelicans are 13-7 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Warriors are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 home games and that long-term stretch dates all the way back to the All Star break. The Pelicans are shooting 52.8% from the field in their last 7 games. Golden State has been held under 44.7% from the field in 2 straight and 3 of their last 6 games. The Pelicans are geared up for the upset here and if they do fall short I expect the generous points offered here to prove to be more than enough. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - This line was as high as a -5.5 and is now down to a 4.5 (with reduced juice too) as of early game day morning. I like the value we're seeing here with the Bucks on their home floor considering they had 89 shots from the field (compared to just 69 for the Celtics) in the 5-point loss at Boston on Tuesday. Prior to that game Milwaukee was hitting over 52% in this series so the likelihood of a bounce back (particularly since they are back home) is quite high. The Bucks are 33-17 SU as a favorite this season and I like them to cover the small number in the process of another SU win here. At home, Milwaukee will be the better shooting team tonight and the Celtics may struggle a bit as they feel the pressure of trying to close it out and avoid a winner takes all Game 7. Keep in mind there is some history with this as Boston is only 3-5 SU when leading in a playoff series in recent seasons. They've haven't played well in this situation but they truly have been getting a number of fortunate covers. This is why the Celtics have such a strong ATS record and are becoming a public favorite...they've been getting the cash. But tonight the public will be burned on this one because the Bucks roll at home. Remember 87 to 69 field goal attempts in Game 5 on the road at Boston. You know what is coming tonight from the hungry Bucks. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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04-23-18 | Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets will be in bounce back mod here after getting destroyed in Game 3. Keep in mind, even though Houston won Game 1 it was far too close of a call and they responded in Game 2 and won by a margin of 20 points. The Rockets are 18-3 SU (15-6 ATS) versus Northwest Division opposition this season. Houston is also 17-6 SU when playing with revenge this season. That said, I also like my chances of a SU win equating to an ATS win as 11 of the Timberwolves last 13 losses have come by 8 or more points. Minnesota is also an ugly 18-34 ATS (including 9-16 ATS this season) when off of a game where they scored 115 or more points. Minnesota is also just 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they were off of a game where they shot 40% or better from three point land. The Wolves 15 of 27 shooting performance from beyond the arc certainly had a lot to do with their Game 3 win but they are not known as a 3 point shooting team and averaged only 8 per game so far this season. In other words, that 1-7 ATS stat makes perfect sense because Minny usually comes right back down to earth after a rare standout shooting performance like that. 10* HOUSTON |
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04-18-18 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - Paul George hit 8 of 11 three pointers in Game 1 for the Thunder. Many of those were contested. Sometimes guys go off in a game and that is what happened Sunday. Even with that ridiculous shooting performance by George in Game 1, Oklahoma City still only won the game by single digits. Look for this one to be either a Jazz upset or a loss by a single possession because Utah is going to shoot better than they did from three point land in Game 1. Odds favor that as well as the fact that George is certainly unlikely to again hit 73% of his threes. Coming into this series I felt the Jazz offer great value and I still feel that way despite the ATS loss in Game 1. Utah has allowed 99 points or less in 16 of their last 21 games. The Thunder have allowed an average of 109 points per game in their last 9 games. Despite the Sunday result, the Jazz are still 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, Oklahoma City is still just 6-11 SU (and 3-14 ATS!) in games against divisional opponents this season. 10* UTAH |
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04-17-18 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - Certainly I won't hesitate to come right back with the Bucks for Game 2 of this series after a true brutally bad beat on Milwaukee in Game 1. Undoubtedly the Bucks were the right side in Game 1 as we all saw. The game only went to OT because of a miracle long 3-pointer for the Bucks with a tenth of a second left on the clock. Of course everyone with a Bucks ticket had at least 3.5, many had 4, and some even had 4.5 to the plus side with Milwaukee. The fact that the Bucks outscored the Celtics by a dozen points in the final 3 quarters of that game says a lot about the adjustments there were able to make. I also like the fact that they barely lost Game 1 despite 10 more fouls than Boston and despite the fact that the Celtics shot above their season averages from the free throw line and from beyond the arc. Boston also had the added benefit of nobody totaling more than 4 fouls. The Bucks had two starters foul out and another starter ended up with 5 fouls. Those things effect players mentally. Look for staying out of foul trouble in Game 2 to result in an even better effort from the Bucks and, keep in mind, they pushed the Celtics to the brink in Game 1. If Boston had Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving on the floor this would be a different story but, without Irving particularly (I know Hayward was lost immediately this season), the fact is that the Celtics were very fortunate to win Game 1. They won't be so fortunate tonight against the hungry and determined Bucks. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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04-16-18 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - While both teams shot exceptionally well from 3-point land in Game 1, that certainly is unlikely to continue in Game 2. So lets take a closer look at the stats that do matter. The Sixers had 17 more field goal attempts in the game. Why? Because they won the rebounding battle by 10 caroms, had 5 more steals which helped lead to a turnover edge of 7, and had 10 more points in the paint. The point is that Philadelphia did the things that win playoff basketball games and I don't see any reason for that not to continue in Game 2. The 76ers had 5 guys score at least 17 points, the Heat only had one big scorer as Olynyk had 26 points. Keep in mind, it also certainly doesn't hurt that Philly has won 17 straight games. Their confidence is sky high and this is huge for a young team. Also, about that "young" team, 4 of the Sixers 7 players who logged the most minutes in Game 1 are 30 or older. That's right, the majority of the core playing rotation in that first game was comprised of guys who are at least 30 and the 76ers top two scorers in the game, Belinelli and Redick are 32 and 33, respectively. This team is a little more balanced with veteran leadership than what casual followers realize. That said, I'll gladly take the Sixers again at home in Game 2 as they are laying a small number despite the fact they are on their own court and going for 18 wins in a row. I'll take it! Lay the points with the red hot Sixers! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-15-18 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:35 ET - A line that had been as low as a -3 on the Thunder is now all the way up to as high as a 4.5 in some spots as of Sunday morning. I like the value with the underdog Jazz. Oklahoma City was only 16-26 ATS in the regular season in games against teams with a winning record. Utah finished up the regular season on a 13-7 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The Thunder also were a horrific 2-14 ATS in games against divisional opponents this season. While Oklahoma City has the more prolific offensive production, I love defensive-minded dogs and certainly the Jazz are the better team on that end of the floor. Oftentimes good defense trumps offensive powerhouses and, that is especially true in crunch time like the playoffs or latter stages of the regular season. Sure enough, Utah is 14-2 SU (and 13-3 ATS) in their last 16 games against teams that average 106 or more points per game. The Jazz are 18-7 ATS in Sunday games including 6-1 ATS this season. Before a loss in their regular season finale, the Jazz were on a 17-3 SU run and the 3 losses were by 3, 4, and 5 points. Hence the value with the points in a game today where the road dog certainly has a great shot at the outright upset. The Thunder have covered just ONCE in their last SEVEN home games! 10* UTAH JAZZ |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 10:35 ET - The Pelicans are rolling into the post-season with 5 straight wins both SU and ATS. New Orleans has averaged 121.2 points per game during this 5-game winning streak. The Pelicans also have been dialing up some defense as they've allowed 103 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. The Trail Blazers have been at the other end of the spectrum with a 1-4 SU run their last 5 games. Portland is only 2-4 SU in their last 6 games versus the Pelicans and one of those 2 wins came by just 4 points. The Blazers also are just 5-10 SU in their last 15 playoff games. New Orleans is simply "feeling it" right now and playing with a ton of confidence and shooting the ball very well. There are only 4 teams in the NBA that had more road wins than the Pelicans (24) this season. Those are the Warriors, Rockets, Celtics, and Raptors. Needless to say that is pretty elite company and the point is that this team can travel and win and I like getting the points here in Game 1 as they ride their momentum right into this post-season match-up. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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04-10-18 | 76ers -9.5 v. Hawks | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks are wrapping up their season here and would love to finish up with a home win. However, Atlanta has the worst record in the Eastern Conference. Yes they are off of back to back wins but they are 0-3 ATS this season when off of back to back wins. Also, they now face a very "interested" opponent compared to the last two they faced. The Sixers would like to get the 3 seed in the East and they are in the drivers seat for that but they must keep winning. They need a win at Atlanta tonight and then home against the Bucks tomorrow night. In other words, they are very focused and on a mission and they also are encouraged by the fact that Joel Embiid very well could be back in time for the post-season. More good news for an already thriving franchise. Another key variable to this game, because depth is also important in late season games, is that the Sixers have two players in their rotation now that were dumped by the Hawks during this season. Don't be surprised if they come up with some big plays in this game tonight. The 76ers have won 14 straight and they've covered 10 of their last 12. The Sixers are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games versus opponents that averaged 106 or more points per game. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and their hot shooting the last two games is an aberration that won't continue and has provided some extra value here. Sixers in a road rout! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-09-18 | Thunder v. Heat +4 | Top | 115-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #708 Monday 10* NBA Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:35 ET - The Thunder still need to win to clinch a spot in the post-season. The Heat are already in. However, Miami doesn't want to go into the post-season playing bad basketball and they enter this game off of a 24 point loss at New York as a sizable road favorite! Note that Miami is 27-12 ATS (including 8-3 ATS this season) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Their SU record in those 11 games this season is 10-1. As for the Thunder, they enter this game off of an upset win at Houston. Prior to upsetting the Rockets, Oklahoma City had lost 4 of their 5 prior games. Also, OKC is an ugly 2-6 SU (and 1-7 ATS) this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. With this line climbing all the way to a -4 on the Thunder (after opening up at a pick'em) I love the value here with the home dog. The Heat are not going to lay down at home in this one. They don't want to be playing poorly heading into the playoffs and they will respond after the abysmal performance at New York. 10* MIAMI HEAT |
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04-08-18 | Pistons -5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 117-130 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (-) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 3:35 ET - The Pistons can still finish with a .500 mark this season if they win out and they're really not showing any signs of quitting on the season even though they've been eliminated from post-season contention. As for Grizzlies, the story is much different. Memphis has won only 3 games since late January! With that said, the odds of a Detroit win here are pretty high! As for the cover, note that only 5 of the Grizzlies last 25 losses have come by less than 6 points! The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games and are a much healthier team than the Grizzlies whom are missing a number of players and now just trying to wrap up on a disastrous season and look forward to next season. Look for Pistons to improve to 20-10 their last 30 non-conference games while Memphis drops to 3-27 SU (and 9-21 ATS) their last 30 games against Eastern Conference foes. 10* DETROIT |
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04-06-18 | Sabres v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Puck Line Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Game #4 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 goals -110 vs Buffalo Sabres @ 7:35 ET - The Bruins loss last night at Florida kept the door open for Tampa Bay to have a shot at the #1 seed in the east. Boston has now lost 3 straight games and the Bolts can take advantage here with a late season push. The Lightning, surprisingly, are playing this game with double revenge against the lowly Sabres. TB lost when they most recent met in Tampa and also lost their most recent visit to Buffalo. That said they have payback on their minds and the Sabres are unlikely to be able to do much about it. Buffalo is very banged up and also has injuries at the goalie position. That should turn this into a home blowout as the Sabres last 8 losses have all come by at least 2 goals. In fact, 7 of those 8 Buffalo losses have come by 3 or more goals! As for the Lightning, 8 of their last 11 games have been decided by 2 or more goals. In other words, don't look for a 1 goal game here and of course I am not laying big money lines. Never have and never will. That said, the -110 price range available on the -1.5 goals here is offering great value. Buffalo has lost 27 of 38 games against teams with a winning record this season. The Lightning have won 9 of 12 this season when playing with home loss revenge. 10* TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING Puck Line -1.5 goals -110 |
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04-06-18 | Cavs v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have won 12 games in a row. They also have covered 10 in a row. The Cavaliers are in a back to back situation and had to use a lot of energy to come up with the late win versus the Wizards last night. This game has become even more important because of the battle for the #3 seed. If the Sixers win out (3 more games after this) they get the #3 seed. The key with the #3 seed is that the 2nd round match-up (should that team advance) would face the winner of the #2/#7 series rather than a #4 seed facing the winner of the #1/#8 series. Why is that so important? Because the #1 seed is Toronto (whom everyone wants to avoid) while the #2 seed, Boston, is further weakened by the loss of Kyrie Irving for the season. Philadelphia has proven extremely tough to beat at home as they've won 20 of 21 games played on their home floor since the calendar turned to 2018. The big difference between these teams is the 76ers play much better defense than the Cavaliers. With Cleveland also having tired legs in the 2nd game of a back to back, look for Philly to prevail here. The Cavs are 8-14 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 or more this season and also a long-term 11-18 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. Keep in mind, not only did the Sixers win on the Cavs floor recently, Philly was blasted by 22 at home by LeBron and Company much earlier this season. Time for payback here. The 76'ers are 25-7 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 or more. Look for the Sixers overall 10-0 ATS streak to make it 11 in a row with another win and cover here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-05-18 | Hurricanes v. Flyers -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Puck Line Game of the Year - Rickenbach NHL Game #54 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +160) vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 7:05 ET - The Flyers still are not officially in the post-season. They're also coming off of an inexcusable game versus the Islanders where they fell behind 4-1. Philly rallied back to tie it at 4-4 in the 3rd period but then immediately allowed the game winning goal to the Isles and so the Flyers didn't even pick up a point in the standings. They are steamed about their performance and now, at home, they are poised to give one of their best efforts of the season. The Flyers are fired up and of course I am never fond of laying big prices so I am going with the puck line in a big way here. Philadelphia has a comeback price in the +160 range at -1.5 goals and I am forecasting a blowout win here. Carolina would love to play the role of spoiler here but they really wanted to play that role in their most recent game (versus Florida) and they couldn't get it done Tuesday. They've now lost 3 of their last 4 and the Flyers (though they recently won 4-2 at Carolina) still owe the Hurricanes for a 4-1 drubbing on home ice in early March. The Flyers didn't show up that night and this is their first opportunity to host the Canes since the ugly effort on home ice. Trust me, the Flyers are showing up tonight and with goalie Brian Elliott also poised to return Philly is filled with a lot of positive energy tonight whether Elliott is between the pipes or not. The Hurricanes have lost 9 of their last 11 April games. 14 of Carolina's last 21 losses have come by 2 or more goals. Another one here! 10* PHILADELPHIA FLYERS Puck Line -1.5 goals +160 |
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04-04-18 | Heat -8 v. Hawks | Top | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks gave a valiant effort last night at Miami and very nearly got the upset win that would have prevented their division rivals from clinching a playoff spot. That said, it may seem like after losing by just a single possession on the road last night that Atlanta would definitely be the play now as a sizable dog at home. However, the Hawks not only gave a huge effort last night, they did it short-handed. Atlanta is not going to have much left in the tank tonight after, for the most part, playing a 6-man rotation yesterday. The Hawks had 6 guys who each played at least 33 minutes. Miami made full utilization of 9 guys last night as all 9 who played logged at least 20 minutes. Atlanta is simply a wounded team right now and the Heat will take advantage tonight. Miami still is seeking to improve their playoff seeding as right now they could finish as high as 6th or as low as 8th so they certainly won't lay down tonight. Look for the Heat to take advantage of tired Hawks as Atlanta plays their 3rd game in 4 nights while Miami had two days off before yesterday's win. The Heat non-covering win last night was just their 5th ATS loss in 15 divisional games this season! The Hawks are 1-12 SU (and 2-11 ATS) when they enter a game on a steak of 3 or more consecutive unders. 10* MIAMI |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 36 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Monday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 9:20 ET - After both favorites covered in the Final Four, don't be surprised if there is a lot of support for the underdog in this one. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the favorite here. Lets not forget Michigan's path to get here. They beat low seeded teams (Montana and Loyola), only beat Houston because the Cougars couldn't make free throws late, did blowout Texas A & M but barely got by a Florida State team that (for this season at least) has a photo of its likeness next to the word inconsistent in the dictionary. In all seriousness though, the Wolverines have not been nearly as impressive as the Wildcats have. I have said it before and I'll say it again, Villanova is a team on a mission ever since, after winning it all in 2016, they were bounced early from the tourney by Wisconsin last year. The Wildcats haven't been just beating teams, they've been dominating them. How many people felt good about Michigan winning the game yesterday (against an 11 seed!) when they were down 7 at the half? Or still down 5 past the midway point of the 2nd half? Give the Wolverines credit for the comeback win (and a cover that did burn me as I had the Ramblers) but Villanova is not Loyola and this one will likely be close for awhile (Michigan is strong defensively) but the Wildcats will ultimately pull away in convincing fashion. Villanova has not only won 10 straight games, they are on an 8-1 ATS run. Also, the Wildcats last 9 wins have all come by double digit margins. Look for this to be another one. 10* VILLANOVA |
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04-02-18 | Orioles v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show |
ESPN Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #920 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - The Orioles are known as a team that loves fastballs and they struggle badly against off-speed stuff. That makes a match-up with Charlie Morton quite possibly a nightmare. He has developed a devastating curveball and uses it plenty as everyone saw in full display in the World Series versus the Yankees. Now, in Houston's home opener, the Astros home opener will celebrate the World Series victory and will have Morton on full display again with his arsenal of off-speed stuff. He should dominate the Orioles who will have hardly anyone in their lineup whom has any experience against them. This will make it even tougher on the O's to try and get good wood on Morton's stuff. As for the Baltimore starting pitcher in this one, Chris Tillman gets the call and he was 1-7 with a 7.84 ERA last season. He has struggled the last couple times he has faced the Astros. Also, looking at Tillman's numbers from last season's awful campaign, the bad news was that he was even worse on the road and worse in night games. Welcome to Houston Chris. Road game at night! This looks like a home blowout. Of course I don't lay big money lines. That's why my play here is the run line which is available at about a -120 price. Astros in a rout. 10* HOUSTON Run Line -1.5 runs |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
THE College Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #814 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 8:45 ET - Kansas just beat Duke in overtime. That was a huge win and it took OT to get it. Now, of course, the Jayhawks have had ample time to hit reset and get ready for Villanova but the Wildcats have been the much more impressive team. Keep in mind Kansas has allowed about 44% from the field in their last 3 games. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have allowed 61 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and Villanova has held their last 5 opponents to a combined 37% from the field. The Wildcats defense is simply fantastic and, on offense they have 6 key cogs in the rotation that all handle the ball very well and can score well which creates a match-up nightmare for the opposition. Having already faced the two toughest defenses (including uniqueness of Mountaineers) of the Big 12 (Texas Tech and West Virginia), Villanova is more than ready to take on the Jayhawks. Jay Wright is a helluva strong coach and this team has been on a mission ever since winning it all in 2016 but then getting bounced early by Wisconsin in last year's Big Dance. Villanova will not be denied and we're getting great line value here with the low number on this one. The Wildcats are a long-term 39-2 SU when they enter off of a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. They are locked in on D right now and most all of their wins have come by at least a half dozen points this season. In other words, you can be very comfortable laying this! All 7 of the Jayhawks losses this season came by at least 5 points. 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago +5.5 v. Michigan | Top | 57-69 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Saturday 10* Top Play Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 6:05 ET - The other match-up in the Final Four has a #1 seed matched up with another #1 seed and the line is the same as this line. Do you see my point? Here we have a #3 seed Michigan facing a #11 seed Loyola and we have the exact same line. So this is basically an invitation from the betting markets to take the much higher seed and lay a very small line. I am not buying it! The fact is that the odds makers (always very sharp and on top of their game) realize that this Loyola team is damn good and playing their best, most cohesive basketball of the season right now. The fact is that the odds makers had to put the line like this because they know they're going to have to keep the Michigan line low to balance the sharp money that will come in on the Ramblers. They fact is that Loyola has proven they can play with some top quality teams and if Michigan does defeat them I expect it to be by a single possession. Loyala has simply gone toe to toe with everyone they've faced. Michigan's record looks great but they haven't shot well in 2 of their last 3 games and also haven't shot well from beyond the arc in 3 of their 4 NCAA Tourney games. The Ramblers make a high percentage because they take quality shots and create good looks and high percentage chances. Loyola faced a tougher road to get this point and they've truly proven themselves. Michigan beat Houston by a single point and only because the Cougars didn't make free throws. The Wolverines beat the Aggies because of torrid hot shooting. But in their other game they faced Montana (much lower competition) and Florida State (a fragile, inconsistent team all season). This Ramblers team is anything but fragile or inconsistent! I'll gladly take the points and an outright upset will not surprise me in the least. 10* LOYOLA-CHICAGO |
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03-30-18 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 126-125 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Friday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Nuggets still fighting hard for a playoff spot. I know Denver enters off of back to back losses but they faced two of the hottest teams in the East - Philly and Toronto. Prior to those defeats the Nuggets had won back to back games and they enter this one on a 3-1 ATS run. Denver also has a rest edge here as they've been off since Tuesday while the Thunder are playing the 2nd game of a back to back as they will be coming into this one off of a game at San Antonio Thursday night. Oklahoma City is playing this game with revenge but they are 9-22 ATS this season when playing with revenge. Also, OKC is an ugly 2-13 ATS in divisional games this season. The Nuggets are 8-4 in divisional games this season. Combined edges of 43-15 (74%) favoring the road dog in this one. 10* DENVER |
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03-30-18 | Illinois-Chicago +9 v. Northern Colorado | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Friday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Northern Colorado Bears @ 7 ET - The Bears are at home for this one but they are still over-priced in my opinion. Many will look at Illinois-Chicago's travel situation and Northern Colorado's hot ATS streak and they'll be all over the Bears here. I am going contrarian and grabbing the points with the hungry road dog in this Championship Game. The Flames have played a tougher schedule on the season and Illinois-Chicago has defended very well this season. UIC also have shut down the 3-ball very well in their last two games and this is what Northern Colorado has been relying on to achieve their blowout wins. The Bears aren't going to hit 17 of 30 threes in this one like they did against Sam Houston State Wednesday. Also, Northern Colorado has allowed 79.5 points per game their last 4 games. Teams can get spoiled when winning with offense. Subconsciously there is a tendency to let up on defense when things are going so well on the offensive end. This will prove to be the undoing of the Bears because they now face a Flames team that has allowed 61 points or less (and 33.3% or less from the field) in 2 of their last 3 games. From a technical aspect, I like the fact that UIC is 20-8 ATS in recent seasons (including 7-2 ATS and SU) this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for the Flames defense to be the difference here. As a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points, Northern Colorado is on an 11-16 ATS run including 2-4 ATS in recent seasons. The Bears are over-priced here. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago +6.5 v. Liberty | Top | 67-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Wednesday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Liberty Flames @ 7 ET - Even though UIC is without leading scorer Dikembe Dixson, they've been without him for both games of this tournament already and are adjusting just fine by going guard-heavier with their lineup. The fact is that Dixson wasn't a high percentage shooter and Illinois-Chicago has clearly picked up the slack. Yes, Liberty is home for this game but I feel they are getting far too much respect here. The line has gone from Liberty -5 to as high as a -6.5 as of early gameday morning. The fact is that UIC played a tougher schedule than Liberty and Illinois-Chicago is also a solid team defensively just like Liberty is. In fact, UIC is allowing only 32.8% from three point land while Liberty has allowed 36.6% from beyond the arc this season. With that said, I feel we're getting excellent line value here with the big points. UIC is a long-term 46-26 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games and that includes 5-1 ATS (and SU) this season. Liberty is a long-term 3-8 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They're now going from facing a Central Michigan defense that played very little defense to facing a UIC team that is absolutely going to challenge their shots here. That said, Liberty is facing a much tougher test here and is over-priced. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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03-27-18 | Spurs v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #762 Tuesday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are off of 3 straight losses and that is certainly worthy of note here as Washington has not lost 4 straight games this entire season! The Wizards are a long-term 9-3 SU (and 10-2 ATS) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Washington also is playing this game with quadruple revenge as they've lost 4 straight versus the Spurs. This includes a loss last week at San Antonio where the Wizards gave up a big 3rd quarter run. Washington is 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season and I expect them to get revenge here. The Spurs are 14-23 SU on the road this season and have lost 8 of their last 9 away from San Antonio. 10* WASHINGTON |
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03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #777 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Utah Utes @ 7 ET - This line, as of early gameday morning, has the Hilltoppers as a very small favorite. As a result, you can play the money line in the -120 range on this one and that is what I am recommending here. The Utes are the bigger name school and will attract some attention here as a small dog as a result. However, this Hilltoppers team is extremely talented and playing extremely well. As a result, we're getting fantastic line value in this one with the ability to just take Western Kentucky to win. The Hilltoppers have been ultra impressive on both ends of the floor. They are off of a 92-84 win at Oklahoma State and are 12-2 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They've shot the ball very well in the NIT and have averaged 83.3 points on 54% shooting from the field. Also, Western Kentucky has allowed 38.9% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Utah is on a long-term 4-8 ATS run in tournament semi-final games and, in recent seasons the Utes have compiled a 6-10 ATS run in games played on a neutral court. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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03-26-18 | North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #742 Monday 10* Top Play San Francisco Dons (-) vs North Texas Mean Green @ 10 ET - Both teams faced a relatively easy path to reach this Championship Series of the CBI. However, don't be fooled by all the big points that North Texas has been putting up. They're facing a much tougher defensive test here. San Francisco played the tougher strength of schedule as their conference includes quality teams like San Diego and BYU and very strong teams like St Mary's and Gonzaga. I feel these tests during the season will help the Dons in terms of being ready to take down the Mean Green here. At home, San Francisco went 15-6 SU this season and that makes me very comfortable laying the short number here with the Dons. The Mean Green went just 6-11 SU in games away from home this season. 11 of their 17 losses this season came by 5 points or more. Also, long-term North Texas is 8-33 SU in road games and an incredibly poor 9-40 SU versus teams with a winning record. Look for the Dons to defend home court in Game 1 of this best of 3 series. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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03-25-18 | Blazers +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:05 ET - Portland is off of rare back to back losses at home. The Trail Blazers had been one of the hottest teams in the league and I look for them to bounce right back here. Portland is a PERFECT 5-0 SU their L5 games away from home. Overall, in their last 18 games, the Trail Blazers have lost ATS only 3 times! In their match-ups with the Thunder this season they are a PERFECT 3-0 SU and ATS. Oklahoma City enters this game quite hot also but if you look closely at what they've done, the Thunder just don't win against playoff level teams very often at all. A big part of the reason they've been on a hot streak is because of facing a weak schedule. Most all of their wins have come against teams that wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today. In fact, the Thunder are just 4-8 SU their last 12 games against teams that are currently in a playoff position or just one game out (Denver). The point is that Oklahoma City has struggled when facing better teams and they're certainly facing one of those today. It is also noteworthy that the Thunder are just 9-21 ATS when playing with revenge this season and also an ugly 2-12 ATS in divisional games. Look for the Blazers to win outright for the 6th time in their last 6 road games and for the 4th time in their last 4 meetings with OKC. Grab the points but you shouldn't need them. 10* PORTLAND |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #872 Friday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7:25 ET - The Wildcats beat Alabama by 23 points despite hitting only 39.7% from the field. That certainly says a lot about just how good this Villanova team is. The Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in neutral court games this season and also 8-2 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games the past 3 tourneys combined. West Virginia has won and covered both their games so far in the tourney but they faced an Ohio Valley team and a Conference USA team. This is certainly a much stiffer challenge here and, keep in mind, the Mountaineers were only 9-9 SU their last 18 games prior to the Big Dance. As for Nova, they faced an SEC team Sunday and that is at least a tougher challenge than what West Virginia has faced so far. Also, the Mountaineers are 5-10 SU their last 15 as an underdog and 30 of the Wildcats 32 wins this season have come by a margin of 7 points or more. As you can, odds truly favoring a win for Nova by 7 or more and that gets us the cash here! We'll take it! 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #818 Thursday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:35 ET - The Aggies played the perfect game versus North Carolina and now the public is so enamored with Texas A & M that the line on Michigan in this game is being driven down from as high as a -4 to where it is now seems headed for a -2. Sure the Aggies looked great but everything was falling in for them and coming up roses while the Tar Heels couldn't buy a bucket. It was just one of those nights but now everyone over-reacts and you know where the value is now. Keep in mind, the Aggies beat a Providence team in round one that is certainly a good team but not great. Now A & M faces a Michigan team that has won 11 straight games and has allowed less than 35% from the field so far in this tourney. The Wolverines had a very tough shooting effort in their tight win over Houston in the 2nd round but Michigan had previously shot 44% or better in 8 straight games! Keep in mind, the Aggies (prior to getting hot in the first two games of this tourney) were held under 39.4% from the field in 3 straight games. I am not sold on this Aggies team but the world is and that has created value that is truly off the charts here with a Wolverines team that was seeded #3 with good reason! Big value here. 10* MICHIGAN |
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03-22-18 | 76ers -7.5 v. Magic | Top | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #801 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are in a back to back spot here but they got up huge last night versus Memphis and were able to rest up for tonight's game at Orlando. Also, the Sixers first two back to backs this season have seen them win both and average 115 points per game. The Magic just don't have the offense to keep up here. Orlando has lost 7 of their last 8 games. The Magic were held to 88 points or less in 5 of those 7 defeats. To put that in proper perspective, Philly has been held to 88 points or less just once this entire season. In fact, the 76ers have scored 98 points or more in 12 straight games. That's why odds are high that another Philly victory by a double digit margin is on tap here. The Sixers have won both meetings with the Magic this season by double digits and the average margin of those games was 15 points. Another rout here. Orlando 4-10 SU and ATS versus Atlantic Division opponents this season. The 76ers are 10-4 SU and ATS versus Southeast Division opponents this season. Philly is 16-10 SU and 17-9 ATS this season when off of a non-conference game. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-21-18 | Nuggets -9 v. Bulls | Top | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #761 Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday this line was as high as double digits but as of early this morning it has settled in at -9 in most spots. Of course the majority are looking at this game and find it hard to justify laying this big of a spread on the road but, trust me, the odds makers knew what they were doing setting this line this high. This one has road rout written all over it. Denver is fighting for their playoff lives but off of back to back losses and that is why they will take out their frustration on a Bulls team that has nothing to play for at this point in the season. Also, helping our cause here is the fact that Chicago is quite banged up right now. Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS their last 5 meetings with the Bulls but only won by a single point in their non-covering win over the Bulls at home earlier this season. Chicago shot unusually well in that game and that won't happen again here. The Bulls have been held 45.1% or less from the field in 6 of their last 8 games. After the epic multiple-overtime loss at Miami Monday, Denver is fired up about responding huge here at Chicago. The Nuggets are a long-term 20-10 ATS after a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. The Bulls have lost 10 of their last 14 games and the Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 wins. In other words, odds favor a big win and cover for the road fave in this one. 10* DENVER |
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03-21-18 | Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 92-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #765 Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 8 ET - Even though the Cowboys had a shot at the cover versus Stanford Wednesday, they certainly were fortunate to even have that end-game opportunity as they were unimpressive again. For the 4th straight game Oklahoma State was held under 41% from the field. I look for the cold shooting to catch up with them here because Western Kentucky comes into this game red hot. The Hilltoppers have shot better than 53.5% in each of their two games in this tournament and it is not like they played push-overs. Western Kentucky faced Boston College and USC. Also, prior to allowing 46.8% from the field against the Trojans, the Hilltoppers had held each of their 3 prior opponents to 38.5% or less from the field. Western Kentucky allowed just 59.3 points per game in those 3 contests. The Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and also are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The Cowboys are 2-9 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, Oklahoma State has gone 0-3 ATS this season when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY |