Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-10-17 | Giants +4 v. Cowboys | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - Are you ready for the sophomore slump? Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott had great rookie campaigns for the Cowboys last season but Dallas finished the season on a 1-6 ATS run (including post-season loss versus Green Bay) and that is a sign of things to come. Even though Elliott is playing in this game his suspension issues have been a major distraction for Dallas. Also, the offensive line did lose two starters from last season's team and that could certainly be an issue here. The Cowboys were also very poor against the pass last season and the Giants are chomping at the bit to turn Eli Manning and Company loose in this one after a disappointing performance for the Giants offense in coach Ben McAdoo's first year at the helm. I like the offseason moves the Giants made to strengthen the offense. Also, the G-men have had the Cowboys number as they are on a 5-0 ATS run in games versus Dallas. That includes 3 straight SU wins and the most recent loss came by just a single point at Dallas in the season opener of the 2015 season. The Cowboys are off of a "miracle season" where everything seemed to fall in place for them in the regular season but lets not forget they were 4-12 in 2015. This is still a quality Cowboys team but they haven't had back to back playoff seasons in many, many years and New York has been a nemesis for them. In road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points, the Giants are on a 28-16 ATS run. In games played on turf the past two seasons, Dallas is 6-15 ATS! More struggles for them at the betting window in this one! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-10-17 | Orioles v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Run Line Game of the Month - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Run Line -1.5 runs -110 vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:05 ET - The Indians are on an insane run and have won 17 in a row. Of course I am never comfortable laying big money lines and they are nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line in this one. However, on the run line we get them at basically a pick'em price by simply laying the 1.5 runs. Is that a good value? You bet (literally!) because the Indians 17 game winning streak has featured 15 of the 17 wins coming by 2 runs or more! As for Baltimore, each of their last 7 losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Orioles send Jeremy Hellickson to the mound and he has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) in just 7 innings of work spanning his last two starts. As for the Indians, they'll have Trevor Bauer on the mound and he is 8-3 at home this season. Also, he enters this start with a spectacular 2.22 ERA in his last 8 starts! Not only should the Indians make it 18 in a row here, the run line success rate is likely to reach 16-2 (89%) in this streak with another win by 2 runs or more. 10* Top Play CLEVELAND INDIANS Run Line -1.5 runs |
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09-09-17 | Calgary v. Edmonton +6 | Top | 25-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 9 ET - The Stampeders blasted the Eskimos last week but that game was at Calgary and now this provincial battle shifts northward to Edmonton. The fact is that the Eskimos outgained the Stampeders last week but were done in by turnovers. I expect Edmonton to make the most of this opportunity for quick revenge. While they may not get the outright win the points are certainly generous and this spread has been inflated because of last week's results. Yes, Edmonton has lost 3 straight games after a 7-0 start to the season but this is still an Eskimos team that is 4-1 at home this season. The Stampeders have won just 3 of their 5 road games this season and here they're being asked to win by a sizable margin. Calgary is 7-3 ATS on the season while Edmonton is only 3-7 ATS. Those ATS records have a way of evening out as a season goes on as over-adjustments are made. I feel that will be the case here and note that the home team has won 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams and the only 2 losses both came by 6 points or less. 10* EDMONTON |
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09-09-17 | Stanford v. USC -5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - NCAAF Game #388: Rickenbach Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 8:30 ET - The Trojans seek revenge for their loss by 17 points at Stanford last season. Keep in mind, star QB Darnold did not play in that game. Although USC struggled some in their eventual 18 point win versus Western Michigan last week, the Broncos are a quality football program and Southern Cal also could not be blamed if they were perhaps peeking ahead to this big Pac-12 battle. As for Stanford, they had a bye week after blasting Rice in Australia two weeks ago. As impressive as that win may seem, the Owls are dreadful and the Cardinal (after an early season bye) may struggle to match the Trojans intensity here as USC benefits from having just played last week (maintaining early season rhythm) and from facing a higher quality opponent. Stanford has held the upper hand in this series in recent years but the odds makers certainly are not stupid. The first numbers that were posted on this game were up near 10. It quickly moved down before the big money could be bet put the point is I side with the odds makers here and love the value of having a team that should win by double digits and yet they're laying less than a TD. Note that the Trojans are on a long-term 24-12 ATS run as a home favorite. In all home games the past 3 seasons, Southern Cal is 9-5 ATS. The Cardinal lost some key personnel from last year's team and that certainly was not an issue against a team like Rice but it will be an issue here against the revenge-minded Trojans. Southern Cal has won 10 straight games and I look for another one here as they cover the small number along the way. 10* USC |
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09-08-17 | Montreal v. BC -7.5 | Top | 18-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
Game of the Week Friday - Rickenbach CFL 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 10 PM ET - Travis Lulay gets the start at QB for the BC Lions and they are coming off of their bye week. He'll replace Jonathan Jennings due to the ineffectiveness of the young starter. Note that the veteran Lulay did very well filling in for Jennings earlier this season and certainly the Lions are in need of a boost now after some recent struggles. That said, the bye week could not have come at a more perfect time for BC and I look for the Lions to come roaring out of the gate in this one! The Lions are 3-1 against East Division teams this season while Montreal is only 3-7 on the entire season! The Als already lost to BC earlier this season back east and facing an angry Lions team out west won't do any favors for the Alouettes here. The Lions have won each of the last 4 meetings between these clubs and the average margin has been 12 points. BC is on a 13-7 ATS run against the East Division and also is 6-1 ATS when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU losses. Montreal got hammered in a divisional loss last week and the Alouettes are on a 6-14 ATS run when off of a divisional game. 10* BC LIONS |
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09-03-17 | Winnipeg +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday CFL 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 4 ET - Saskatchewan certainly has improved this season but last week they took advantage of an Edmonton team that was looking ahead to a big showdown with Calgary this week. The result of the Roughriders big win over the Eskimos is helping to give us some line value here as we can get a solid Blue Bombers team at a full +3 in this one. Keep in mind, a lot of points are expected in this one (O/U posted at 61) and Winnipeg is on an 11-1 ATS run in road games with a posted total of 52 points or more! The Blue Bombers are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in road games this season! As for Saskatchewan, they are a dismal 3-10 ATS in games where they are a favorite. Grab the underdog value here! 10* WINNIPEG |
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09-02-17 | Vanderbilt -3 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
TV Top Game - Rickenbach Saturday NCAAF Game #203 - 10* Top Play Vanderbilt Commodores (-) @ Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 8 ET - Sure Middle Tennessee State is seeking revenge but this line drop from an opener of Vanderbilt -6 to now just a 3 point favorite as of gameday morning is a huge value for the Commodores. Vandy has come a long way in recent seasons and returns a solid starting group. This is still a case of an SEC team versus a CUSA team and the Commodores are also no longer the SEC's doormat! Yes the Blue Raiders threw the ball very well versus Vandy last season but the Commodores improvement on defense came as the season went on. They allowed an average of only 20.8 points per game in their final 8 regulars season games. The MTSU defense is a concern here. Not only are you talking about Conference USA talent but also the Blue Raiders are replacing their entire defensive line. Keep in mind that is part of the same front seven that Vandy ran all over for 234 rushing yards per game in the last two meetings. The Commodores are on a 7-1-1 ATS run against Conference USA opponents. Also, Middle Tennessee State is a long-term 0-4 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points and now this line is all the way down to a +3 and giving the Blue Raiders even less value here. Look for the road fave to roll again. 10* VANDERBILT |
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08-31-17 | Seahawks v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFLX 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 10 PM ET - Seattle is 3-0, 100% perfect this preseason campaign. However, going 4-0 is never easy - it does not happen often. Additionally, going 0-4 is not that likely either and the Raiders enter this one 0-3. The fact is that this is a perfect set up. The very first number on this game that came out was Oakland -2.5 and they then have moved to has high as a +2.5 in some books as of early Tuesday. The line has settled in around 1 or 1.5 since then (as of later Tuesday) but the fact remains this is a significant move toward the Seahawks. I am not surprised given the long-term numbers on Seattle that there has been such a significant move here. But the fact remains this is opening up line value on an Oakland team that is not without some solid depth. Remember that this team did go 12-4 and win their division last season. Their playoff fortunes changed with the loss of their star QB to injury and that certainly has this Oakland team hungry heading into the new year. Even though it's only preseason, I just don't see the Raiders going 0-4 and note that the #2 QB for Seattle, Trevone Boykin threw 7 passes in last week's game with the only "completion" being an interception for his opponent! The fact is that the Seahawks are getting a lot of respect here considering that even though they've beaten Oakland the past few preseasons in the finale, the Raiders have actually held the edge in first downs in each match-up. These teams are not that far apart in terms of talent level and depth and I like the hungrier team at home getting points! Remember even just getting 1.5 points is significant because in preseason teams play for the win as they don't want to tie and go to OT. So if Oakland is ahead by 7 and Seattle scores a TD late they're likely to be going for 2 and a 1-point win. Speaking of tight wins, 5 of the Seahawks 8 preseason games the past 2 seasons were decided by a COMBINED 7 points. 0-4 preseasons for the Raiders are rare and I am grabbing the value with the hungry home dog. Back-up QBs for Oakland get revenge over Seattle's back-up signal-callers for this one after losing the Week 4 preseason match-up last year. 10* OAKLAND |
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08-30-17 | White Sox v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Month Run Line - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Run Line -1.5 runs vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - The Twins got the 6-4 win yesterday and Minnesota is now 9-4 in their last 13 games with all 9 wins coming by a margin of 2 runs or more. That said, though Minny on the money line is a prohibitive favorite here, there is good value with the Twins on the run line laying the 1.5 runs while also laying a very small price. The fact that the White Sox Derek Holland bested the Twins Jose Berrios in last week's match-up in Chicago simply adds even more value here. Both Holland and Berrios allowed 7 baserunners apiece in that start but Holland only struck out 5 in 6 innings while Berrios struck out 9 in just 5 and 1/3 innings. Look for payback here as Berrios is 7-1 with a 2.87 ERA in his home starts this season. Conversely, Holland is 3-6 with a 7.82 ERA in his road starts this season. Also, Berrios still has a solid 2.95 ERA in his 3 starts versus the ChiSox in his career while Holland, prior to last week's start, allowed 14 runs (10 earned) in less than 8 innings of work spanning his two previous starts versus the Twins. Each of the White Sox last 5 wins have come by 2 runs or more. The ChiSox were on a 3-15 run in Holland's starts before he got a rare win last week. Berrios has won 6 straight home starts and only 1 victory came by less than 2 runs. That said, grab the value with the Twins on the run line in this one as they stay hot at the plate while the ChiSox (averaging 7.2 hits per game their last 9 games) see their struggles resume this evening. 10* MINNESOTA -1.5 runs |
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08-27-17 | 49ers +5 v. Vikings | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49'ers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8 ET - Both teams are 1-1 but San Francisco got blasted last week, embarrassed at home, thanks to 5 turnovers! The 49'ers had 4 fumbles and threw 1 interception versus the Broncos. Suffice to say, the Niners are fired up about responding this week. The Vikings are off of a road loss at Seattle. In regular season action the Vikes would be the play here of course. But this isn't the regular season and motivation is a little tougher to come by. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer does have a good track record in preseason but the Vikes certainly haven't impressed this season. They've been substantially outgained in each of their first two games of this preseason. Even though Minnesota went 4-0 in last year's preseason, 2 of the wins came by 2 points or less. The Niners, with a new head coach, are looking for some positives after a dreadful season last year. With that said, look for a little extra hunger from San Francisco to be a difference maker here as last week's sloppy home loss has the 49'ers fired up. With the move up into the 5 and 5.5 point range on this one, there is a lot of value with the big road dog. 10* SAN FRANCISCO Sunday evening |
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08-25-17 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton -5.5 | Top | 54-31 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 9:30 ET - On the one hand, the Roughriders have an edge here since they are off of their bye week. Also, Saskatchewan blasted BC prior to their bye week but the thing is they were catching the Lions at the perfect time to get the big win. BC was clearly looking ahead to their showdown with Calgary. Even though the Eskimos also now have Calgary on deck, there is no doubt Edmonton is fully focused here as they lost at Winnipeg just last week and the Blue Bombers are nipping at their heels at the top of the West Division. That defeat last week was the first of the season for the Eskimos. That is not the only thing that has Edmonton fired up either as they also are seeking revenge here for a rare loss to Saskatchewan when these teams last met (late last season). The Roughriders are 0-3 on the road this season and just 3-18 away from home the last 3 seasons. There are some dismal ATS numbers for Saskatchewan as well as they are on an 8-15 ATS run in divisional games. As for the Eskimos, they are 4-0 at home this season and, in terms of ATS numbers, they are 4-2 ATS when off of a loss in divisional action and they are also 6-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* EDMONTON |
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08-24-17 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +1 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFL 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7:30 ET - The Blue Bombers are off of a huge win last week as they knocked off the previously unbeaten Eskimos. Following that big win versus Edmonton, look for Winnipeg to be flat here. That's bad news for Bombers fans because Montreal will be ready to go after an embarrassing 38-6 loss at Toronto where anything that could do wrong did go wrong for the Als. Look for the Alouettes to respond in a big way here. Though their overall season record does not impress, Montreal is a solid 3-1 at home this season. Also, in home games with a posted total of 52 points or more, the Alouettes have a long-term SU mark of 73-26 (74%)! The Blue Bombers, as a road favorite of 3 points or less, have a long-term mark of 2-10 (17%) both SU and ATS! Huge situational edge for the Als here. 10* MONTREAL |
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08-18-17 | Calgary -4 v. BC | Top | 21-17 | Push | 0 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) @ BC Lions @ 10:30 ET - Many are likely to back BC here as they are at home and have revenge from getting blasted out of the postseason 42-15 by Calgary in November. However, the Lions are loaded with issues here. Not only did they just play on the road Saturday (making this a short rest situation), BC also has issues at QB. Jonathan Jennings returned last week but he was simply awful at Saskatchewan and he will be facing a much tougher D this week. Adding to the disadvantage for the Lions here is the fact that the Stampeders have extra rest since they are off of their by week. Also, Calgary has been firing on all cylinders with a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS run heading into this one while the Lions have lost 2 of 3 SU and 3 of 4 ATS as they prepare for the Stampeders here. Calgary has covered 4 of the last 6 meetings and also has dominated to the tune of an 8-1 SU record in the last 9 meetings. There is simply a lot for BC to overcome here and I don't see that happening. The fact the Stampeders opened up as a 5 point road favorite tells you a lot about this match-up. Look for the better team to comfortably pull away as this game goes on. The Stampeders are 4-0 SU and ATS when off of a bye week and also are on a 7-1 ATS run in road games with a posted total of 52 points or more. Look for them to roll here as the Lions, no matter how motivated, just aren't playing very good football right now and have QB concerns which is a huge factor in any football league but of particular concern in the pass-happy CFL. 10* CALGARY |
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08-13-17 | BC v. Saskatchewan +2 | Top | 8-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach Sunday CFL 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) vs BC Lions @ 8 ET - The Roughriders were done in by turnovers in last week's match-up at BC and dug a 30-0 hole. Though the points came late in the game, look for the 15 points scored late in the 4th quarter to build some momentum and confidence for Saskatchewan coming into this game. Also, with the Lions on a long winning streak versus the Riders, it is rather easy for BC to look right past Saskatchewan to a huge game on deck with Calgary. The Stampeders are just ahead of the Lions in the standings while the Roughriders are dead last in the division. As a result, I smell an upset here. Adding to the value with Saskatchewan in this spot is some very powerful history in spots like this. As a home dog of 3 points or less, the Riders are an incredible 19-4 ATS (and SU) their last 23. This is a rare Sunday game (BC's first of the season) and they went 0-4 ATS the past two seasons in Sunday games. Also, the Roughriders have a bye on deck so this home game is HUGE for them and, unlike the Lions, the Riders are not distracted in the least. In fact, they're fully focused on this match-up. Upset alert! 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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08-04-17 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa -3.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - The defending Grey Cup Champion Redblacks have had a tough start to the season but this is the ideal spot for them to get back on track. Ottawa is coming off of a much needed bye week and they are 4-2 (both SU and ATS) when off of a bye week in recent seasons. Also, the Redblacks are playing with revenge here as the Blue Bombers handed them a home loss in their most recent meeting late last season. Ottawa is on a 13-7 ATS run in their games against teams with a winning record while Winnipeg is on a 4-10 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record. The Blue Bombers are allowing 35.8 points per game this season and the Redblacks (after having to face ultra potent Calgary the first two weeks) has seen their defense settle in nicely with only 23.8 points allowed in their last 4 games. The combination of the defensive edge, the rest edge, home field edge, and the revenge angle set this one up perfectly for a big Ottawa win. The Redblacks had won 3 straight (by an average of 7.7 points per game) in this series before that loss late last season. Look for another win by at least 7 points in this one! 10* OTTAWA |
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07-29-17 | Hamilton +13 v. Calgary | Top | 1-60 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9:30 ET - Though Calgary is on normal rest (played exactly one week ago), it certainly helps Hamilton that they've had a couple extra days to prepare for this game. The hungry winless Tiger-Cats haven't played since last Thursday. That was a tight 3-point home loss to the undefeated Edmonton Eskimos and I foresee the Ti-Cats given the equally challenging Stampeders all they can handle in this one as well. Not only does Hamilton have a rest edge here, Calgary has a quick turnaround to look ahead to as well as they have a Thursday match-up at Toronto. The Argonauts are the top team in the East Division standings while the Tiger-Cats are winless and in dead last in the standings. That said, the Stampeders could look right past the Ti-Cats here and who could blame the Stamps? They've won 10 straight meetings between the teams. Even though Calgary has dominated straight-up, Hamilton is 7-3 ATS when off of a 2 or more consecutive losses. Also, the Tiger-Cats have gone 8-2 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 the past 3 seasons combined. In road games with a total of 56 points or more, the Ti-Cats are on a 14-8 ATS run. Also, the Tiger-Cats are 14-7 ATS when they are a road dog in a range of +10.5 to +14 points. The Stampeders are 0-3 ATS against East Division foes this season. Also, in home games with a posted total of 56 points or more, Calgary is on a 14-21 ATS run. Look for this one to be much closer than many are expecting. 10* HAMILTON |
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07-28-17 | Royals +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
***NOTE: Rick Porcello is now the starting pitcher instead of David Price for the Red Sox. This is just as strong of a play with Porcello now getting the nod to start this game. The right-hander is 4-13 this season and opponents are hitting .293 against him. Porcello was hit at a .329 clip in May and .323 clip in June. I know he has been better in July but he still gave up 9 hits in 6 innings in his only home start and he allowed 3 homers in his most recent road start! Fade the Red Sox here and go with the Royals on the Run Line. The original full write-up follows.*** Game of the Month Run Line: Rickenbach Friday MLB 10* Top Play Kansas City Royals Run Line (+1.5) @ Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - The Royals have won 8 straight games and yet they're getting absolutely no respect here. Yes, I know that Jason Vargas has struggled recently on the mound but he bounced back in his most recent start for a win. That will help him get his confidence back up as he allowed just 2 earned runs to a White Sox team that hits lefties very well. Now Vargas faces a Red Sox team that has lost 3 of its last 4 against left-handed starters and the lone win came by just a single run for Boston. That is significant here because the Royals are available at a very low price on the run line at +1.5 runs and that is a huge value. The Red Sox are only 1-4 in their last 5 games and they've averaged just 2.8 runs per game during this stretch. Kansas City has averaged 7.9 runs per game during their current 8-game winning streak. David Price gets the start for Boston here and, though he had been pitching well, he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start. That was on the West Coast and, even though the Red Sox were off yesterday, the first game at home for an East Coast team after a trip out west always seems to be the toughest. Tremendous line value with the red hot Royals here especially when you are able to grab the extra insurance at such a fair price! 10* KANSAS CITY ROYALS Run Line +1.5 runs |
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07-21-17 | Winnipeg v. BC -3.5 | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 10 PM ET - After opening up the season with a bye, Winnipeg barely got by Saskatchewan (in overtime) and then got absolutely crushed by Calgary before getting past Toronto. The Roughriders and Argonauts were the two worst teams in the CFL last season. That said, the Blue Bombers two victories this season are not necessarily that impressive. What does stand out is how they got hammered by the Stampeders and now they are again stepping up in class and facing another top divisional foe as they travel to BC to face the Lions. British Columbia is 3-1 on the season but their lone defeat came in their only home game and they have yet another road game on deck. In other words, the Lions are putting full emphasis on this game as they want to get into the win column at home after a tight loss to Edmonton all the way back in Week 1. BC had a successful road trip to the East - perfect 3-0 - and they don't want to lose that momentum here. The Lions have been the top team in the CFL for points allowed per game this season while the Blue Bombers have been the worst team in the West Division for points allowed per game. I realize Winnipeg has a rest edge here since they played 2 days earlier than BC last week. However, the Lions have performed well on short rest this season. Of course the Blue Bombers are seeking revenge for last season's playoff exit at the hands of the Lions but revenge will only take you so far in terms of how games play out on the field. In other words, I love the value of having BC after the big downward line move here as great line value is being offered on the Lions as a small home fave. Winnipeg has covered 5 straight in this series and has won 4 straight regular season meetings. The Lions, even though they won the playoff match-up in November, still have a little payback on their minds based on all the recent regular season outcomes. Couple that with the fact BC is hungry for that first home win of the season and you have a nice set-up here with the added line value after the downward move. 10* BC LIONS Friday |
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07-19-17 | Montreal v. Ottawa -4.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
Wednesday Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - The defending Grey Cup champions, Ottawa, still is in search of their first win of the season. Needless to say the Redblacks are fired up and ready to respond as their first four games have been decided by a total of just 7 points and yet they still haven't punched one into the win column. Ottawa is catching a division rival at the perfect time to right the ship. Montreal is off of a big upset win over previously undefeated Calgary last week. That makes the Alouettes ripe for the picking here. I know Montreal is solid defensively but Ottawa is not that far behind on that side of the ball and the Redblacks also certainly are the better team offensively. Ottawa has the worst turnover margin, by far, of any team in the CFL so far this season and this is why I feel there is line value in this spot. The Redblacks are certainly a better team than their record would indicate and there are also some strong trends that support them here. Both teams are on short rest here since they were each in action Friday. Montreal is 9-14 ATS when playing with rest of 6 days or less while Ottawa is a fantastic 16-6 ATS when playing with rest of 6 days or less between games! The Redblacks are also 13-5 ATS (and 12-6 SU) in divisional games while the Alouettes are on a 6-10 SU run in divisional games. Also, when the Redblacks enter a game on a losing streak of 2 games or more, they are on a 5-0 ATS run! More of the same expected here on Wednesday! 10* OTTAWA |
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07-15-17 | BC -3 v. Hamilton | Top | 41-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 11 m | Show |
Saturday Slaughter - Rickenbach CFL 10* Top Play British Columbia Lions (-) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:30 ET Saturday - The Lions lost their home opener to Edmonton in a tight defeat. As a result, they viewed this road trip east as an early-season opportunity to 'right the ship". They've done just that with back to back wins at Toronto and Montreal. Both victories came by 7 points or more for British Columbia and I look for BC to get the job done again by at least that margin at Hamilton on Saturday. The Tiger-Cats are not only winless on the season, both losses came by a 17 point margin. The Ti-Cats had an opportunity last week, off of a bye week, to "right the ship" at Saskatchewan. Hamilton failed against a much weaker non-divisional foe than the one they are facing this week and that is bad news for Tiger-Cats fans as there is already significant concern with the Terrence Tolliver injury and a banged up secondary. With Hamilton's All-Star corners hurting, they will struggle to stop BC's aerial attack. That's because the Lions ground game is also a legitimate threat. British Columbia is averaging 95 yards per game on the ground and the Hamilton defense must respect the ground game and that makes BC's passing game even more dangerous! As for the Hamilton ground game, the Ti-Cats have averaged only 21.5 rushing yards per game and this gives a huge edge to a Lions defense that is at the top of the league with only 20.3 points allowed per game. The West has been stronger than the East in recent seasons and BC has exemplified that with a 12-6 mark (both SU and ATS) versus East Division teams. Also, the Lions are 10-6 ATS in Saturday games while Hamilton is 3-7 (both SU and ATS) in Saturday games. Look for these trends to continue this weekend. I know the Tiger-Cats are desperate as they are the only team in the league without a single point in the standings BUT the Lions are just too superior all over the field and the Ti-Cats injuries have exasperated their current situation. 10* BC Lions minus the short number Saturday evening. |
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07-08-17 | Hamilton +2.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 10 ET - The Roughriders are off of back to back tough losses. They lost in Week 1 by a single point and then lost in overtime in Week 2. After the heartbreak last Saturday followed that tough loss the prior week, it will be tough for Saskatchewan to bounce back here. Making the task even tougher is the fact that they're hosting a Hamilton team that has had two weeks to prepare for this game. The Tiger-Cats lost in Week 1 by 17 points at Toronto so they will not be in a good mood here! Hamilton watched the Argonauts make some huge catches (even on a number of poorly thrown balls) and, basically, everything seemed to go the Argos way in that Week 1 match-up. That said, the Ti-Cats are fired up and they can't wait to get back on the field after the early season bye week! Hamilton, the past 2 seasons, went 5-2 SU and ATS when off of a loss against a division rival. Also, the Ti-Cats straight-up road record (4-5) was better than Saskatchewan's straight-up home record (3-6) last season. Additionally, the past three seasons combined, the Roughriders are 2-10 SU and ATS as a favorite! July has been a horrible month for Saskatchewan (1-9 SU) while the Tiger-Cats actually have a winning record (both SU and ATS) in July games the past two seasons combined. Two of the weaker teams in the CFL matched up here but the scheduling situation and emotional status of these two teams right now means the value is clearly with the dog in this one! 10* HAMILTON |
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07-06-17 | BC -3.5 v. Montreal | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Thursday 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - As I wrote in Friday's Game of the Month write-up, the Lions would be hungry last week after BC lost a tight one at home to Edmonton in the opening week. The Lions are now a stellar 10-2 ATS the last 2+ seasons when they are off of a loss to a division rival. BC is a good team. Montreal is certainly still a question mark. The Alouettes barely got by Saskatchewan in Week 1 and then lost at Edmonton last week. The Als just don't have the offensive and, long-term, BC is known for their offensive production! Already this season BC has scored at least 27 points in each of their two games while Montreal has yet to crack the 20-point barrier. I am well aware of the fact that the dogs are 8-0 ATS this season in CFL but there is a reason that, despite that fact, this line has risen from -2.5 to -3.5 on BC in this game. The Lions are the much better team and their viewing this Eastern road trip (Toronto last week and Hamilton next week) as an opportunity to get back on track after that tough, disappointing loss in their home opener. The superior (and fully focused) team is the play here and the Lions have won 3 straight meetings with the Alouettes and all 3 wins came by a margin of at least 9 points. The Lions are on an 11-6 ATS run in non-conference games while Montreal is on a 6-13 ATS run in home games. More of the same here. 10* BC LIONS minus the points early Thursday evening |
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07-01-17 | Winnipeg +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 43-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 9 ET - Amazingly the underdogs are a perfect 7-0 ATS so far this CFL season after yesterday's results saw two more underdogs cash in. Looking at this Saturday night match-up I like the fact that the Blue Bombers opened up as a favorite but are now the underdog here. Winnipeg has revamped their offense coming into this season and they had a bye in week one action. While the Blue Bombers are excited about unveiling their new, more dangerous attack on offense, the Roughriders are already the team feeling pressure in this one. Keep in mind, Saskatchewan only won five games last season. Now they got this season off to a familiar start with a loss and it was a frustrating one coming by a single point at Montreal last week. The Roughriders offense did not look good and, as for their defensive production, yes they held the Alouettes to just 17 points but Montreal only scored 19 points last night. The point is that the Riders benefited from facing an Alouettes offense that is having some issues early this season. I really like what Winnipeg has done to bolster both their ground game and aerial attack coming into this season and we're getting great line value here as the Blue Bombers have all the positive energy having waited extra time for the season opener. Conversely, the Roughriders feel the added pressure of already being 0-1 and now playing in Saskatchewan with the pressure of trying not to suffer a home loss and drop to a quick 0-2 on the season. The Riders will be playing not to lose while Winnipeg will be playing to win and you know how these types of situations tend to play out! Also, the Blue Bombers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. Look for another underdog W in this one as the dogs improve to 8-0 this CFL season! 10* WINNIPEG plus the points Saturday night |
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06-30-17 | BC +3 v. Toronto | Top | 28-15 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Friday 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - The Argonauts had the biggest win in Week 1 as they demolished Hamilton by 17 points. In that game truly everything seemed to fall into place for Toronto. Now they face a fired up BC team that lost a tight one at home to Edmonton. The Lions have gone a stellar 9-2 ATS the last two seasons when they are off of a loss to a division rival. BC is a good team. Toronto is still a question mark. I know the Argos had a great week one performance but there has already been an over-reaction to that by the betting markets as this line went from a pick'em to a -3 on Toronto. We're getting tremendous line value on the Lions, off of a loss, and getting +3 in this one. Long-term, BC is known for their offensive production and the Argos caught the Tiger-Cats off-guard in Week 1. The Lions are well aware of how that game went and the Argonauts won't catch hungry BC asleep coming into this game. Toronto is 1-5 SU and ATS when off of a win against a division rival. Also, the Argos, even with last week's win included, are still just 4-13 ATS in home games the past 2+ seasons. Lastly, the Lions also have the rest edge here as they played on Saturday last week while the Argos played on Sunday. Now playing on Friday, it's an extra short week for Toronto here. The road team is also 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams. More of the same here. 10* BC LIONS plus the points early Friday evening |
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06-25-17 | Hamilton -3.5 v. Toronto | Top | 15-32 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday CFL 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) @ Toronto Argonauts @ 4 ET - The Tiger-Cats are the much better team and, after their long winning streak versus the Argonauts ended in Toronto in September last season, payback is in order here. The Argos have issues on both sides of the ball as their concern on offense is a question about the level of receiving talent on hand for the passing game. On the other side of the ball Toronto was the worst defense in the league last season so that unit has a long way to go to get to where it should be. Even though Toronto is at home for this one, they went just 2-7 at home last season. The Argos, like much the rest of the East Division last season, was better on the road than at home. That's why there is no questioning the fact that Hamilton is a sizable road favorite here. It is absolutely justified as they seek revenge for the September loss that ended their 6-0 run (both SU and ATS) in their rivalry series with the Argos. The Ti-Cats are a long-term 14-8 ATS in road games with a posted total of 56 or more. The Argonauts are on a 3-13 ATS run in home games and a 5-12 ATS run in divisional games. The Ti-Cats are the better team on both sides of the ball and the revenge factor is what 'sweetens the deal" on this one and has me going to my top play rating here. 10* HAMILTON TIGER-CATS minus the points Sunday afternoon |
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06-20-17 | Angels +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 8-3 | Win | 113 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels +1.5 runs +115 @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees just got swept in a 4-game set at Oakland and they ended up losing 6 straight games overall to finish their West Coast road trip. Even though they were off yesterday, the Yankees are still likely to struggle Tuesday night as it is usually the first game back that it toughest on a East Coast team after returning from out west. The Angels were also off yesterday and, though they lost their game Sunday, they've only lost back to back games once since June 3rd. In other words, expect a bounce back and a win from the Angels here. However, should they fall short in a tight, low-scoring game, look for the run line to be all the insurance we need there. Even at +1.5 runs the Angels are getting some plus money odds here and I'll gladly take it. Michael Pineda gets the start for the Yankees and he has allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits in two of his last three starts. That's made for two ugly outings for Pineda recently and I look for another one here as one of those tough starts was against these Angels in Anaheim. Pineda now has a 7.50 ERA in the 3 starts he has made against the Angels in his career. As for Parker Bridwell of the Angels, he has only had limited action at the MLB level but his lone start this season was a quality start and I expect another one here. At AAA in the Pacific Coast League this season he has held hitters to just a .248 batting average. Though Bridwell struggled out of the bullpen recently against the Yankees, look for him to get some payback here as the Yanks come out with a bit of a West Coast "hang-over" as they bring the 6-game losing streak into tonight's action. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS Run Line +1.5 runs |
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06-18-17 | Mariners v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:05 ET - This is a bit of a "contrarian" play for me because, as long-time followers know, I like to play underdogs or small faves in MLB. However, even though the Rangers are a big favorite here, line value is available by grabbing them at a great price on the run line in a game they should easily win by 2 or more runs. Simply put, the Rangers are hot and the Mariners are not! With yesterday's 10-4 win, Texas is now 8-2 in their last 10 games and all 8 victories have come by at least 2 runs. Seattle is now 2-6 in their last 8 games and all 6 losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Mariners are sending Christian Bergman to the mound and he is now 1-3 in his 4 road starts this season with a ridiculous 10.61 ERA and 2.14 WHIP! He should prove to be no match for the Rangers Yu Darvish. The fire-balling Texas right-hander has led Texas to an 8-4 mark in his last 12 starts. Only 1 of the 8 wins came by less than 2 runs. Darvish has a stellar 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. The Mariners are now 13-24 on the road this season after back to back 10-4 losses. The Rangers are 17-3 (85%) the last 3 seasons combined as a home fave in a range of -175 to -250. That's a high percentage chance of victory here and, as noted above, there is a high percentage chance that any Rangers win does come by 2 runs or more. 10* TEXAS Run Line -1.5 runs Sunday afternoon |
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06-12-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 120-129 | Push | 0 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach Monday NBA 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - After getting embarrassed by 21 points in Game 4 at Cleveland on Friday the Warriors have to bounce back here, right? Not necessarily! In fact, Golden State is laying a sizable number here even though they are 1-5 ATS this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. While it is likely that the Warriors close out the series tonight, it would not be a complete shock if the Cavs got the upset win. They've done it before here at Golden State in spots very similar to this one. However, the real key is the line value because lets not forget that Cleveland, at halftime, was only down by 8 to the Warriors in Game One and just 3 to the Warriors in Game Two here. Then the Cavs should have won Game Three were it not for blowing a sizable lead very late. Now, with the added confidence of having won Game Four, look for the Cavs to be able to stay close with Golden State all the way in this one. As you can see, they've "been right there" with the Warriors for much more of this series than what the final scores would lead you to believe but the odds makers simply have to keep this number big on Golden State because the public is likely to be all over them in "bounce back mode" here. In addition to that 1-5 ATS mark for the Warriors off of a double digits loss, also note that the Cavs are 22-10 SU (and have had just 12 ATS losses in those 32 games) when off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. Momentum is huge when it comes to ATS covers and the Cavaliers have it and will seize the moment here. 10* CLEVELAND plus the big points Monday night. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
ABC Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 8 ET - The Cavaliers have no chance in this series. At least that is prevailing public opinion after the way Game 1 played out. Of course we all know how it usually plays out after the public gets one-sided about things after one game. The point is that the value is clearly with the road dog in this one. The opening line on this game was a 7 and it is now up to a 9. The Warriors turned the ball over just 4 times in Game 1 while the Cavaliers turned it over 20 times. Do you really think that the Cavs are again going to lose the turnover battle 20-4? Do you really think that a LeBron James Cleveland team that also has Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love is just going to lay down in Game 2 after getting embarrassed in Game 1? The Cavaliers were on an 8-0 ATS run away from home before the ugly loss Thursday at Golden State. That was their first non-cover away from Cleveland since in nearly TWO MONTHS - April 9th! Look for the Warriors to drop to 3-10 ATS on the season in Sunday games! They've been feeling a little too good about themselves with their perfect record in this post-season and don't you think beautiful Saturdays in California have a little something to do with that ugly Sunday ATS record for the Warriors? Trust me the Cavaliers certainly have been all business after what happened in Game 1. They'll make some adjustments. Grab the big points. 10* CLEVELAND |
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06-01-17 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - Both teams have had a long layoff but the Warriors layoff has been particularly long heading into this one. Also, the Cavaliers have responded extremely well after a long layoff in this post-season as they blew out the Raptors and Celtics in Game 1 of each of those series. Certainly this is to take nothing away from Golden State. They definitely have proven they are more than capable of blowing teams out but even though they have revenge from last year's Finals loss to the Cavs, Cleveland comes into Game 1 very hungry here as LeBron James and Company are tired of all the talk about being such a huge dog in this match-up. That is tremendous motivation for the defending champs and, even if they do fall short in Game 1 I would expect it to only be by a bucket or two. I know the Cavaliers got the benefit of facing the Celtics with Isaiah Thomas getting hurt in the series but the Warriors faced the Spurs without Kawhi Leonard after the midway point in Game 1 AND then San Antonio ALSO lost Tony Parker to injury. San Antonio just didn't have anybody left (let's not forget Tim Duncan of course was already retired and SA just not what they once were). The point is that the Cavs faced arguably a tougher test to get here than the Warriors. For all the talk of all the weapons that Golden State has (certainly formidable) let's not forget that LeBron James has a healthier cast around him this season and they've got Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love (healthy!) for star power plus plenty of tremendous role players. They're just not even being given a shot here and remember the Spurs were up HUGE here in GS in Game 1 before Leonard got hurt. LeBron and Company are well aware of the +7 that has been assigned to them here and they'd love nothing more than to make a statement here in Game 1. The Cavaliers are going to bring a ferocious attitude to the floor for this game and I expect Game 1 goes to the wire with an outright upset not surprising me in the least. 10* CLEVELAND |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +11 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - I know Kyrie Irving is going to play and his ankle is not "that" big of a deal. However, there is no denying that if the Cavaliers are fortunate enough to have a big lead late in this game they have to start thinking about the Warriors and making sure nobody gets hurt or, in the case of Irving, injures something further. With that said, this is a lot of points for Cavs on the road and I see this game being decided by single digits. Keep in mind, Boston was thoroughly embarrassed on their home floor in this series and, that said, even if they are unable to extend the series by getting an upset win at home tonight, they damn sure want to at least put on a respectable showing for their home fans. Without Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics have looked like a different team and Cleveland even admitted they are still having trouble adjusting to the way Boston is playing sans Thomas. Of course the Cavs don't have to even admit that as it has truly been apparent. The Celtics rallied for the big upset win on the road in Game 3 and for much of Game 4 (even into the 4th quarter) appeared to have a great shot at another upset Tuesday. The fact is that everyone (including bettors) are anxious for the NBA Finals between Cleveland and Golden State to start and many are looking for a close-out game here for the Cavs. That is reflected in this line going from an 8.5 to as high as an 11 and while the Cavaliers may indeed get the close-out win here, I just don't see it coming at a big margin. These series has looked much different since Brad Stevens (a good coach) has made some key adjustments to make things much more competitive after abhorrent performances early in this series in Boston. The Celtics are 11-5 ATS (and SU) this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more and the Game 4 final score does not properly reflect how close that game was. The result is tremendous line value here and, as a result, I am going with my highest rating in this one! 10* BOSTON |
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05-23-17 | Celtics +15.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - Boston made significant adjustments in Game 3 and guys stepped up with Isaiah Thomas out. The Celtics not only covered that game but also got the huge upset win. Now most everyone will be running to the Cavaliers here expecting LeBron James and company to respond in a huge way here. However, while Cleveland is certainly likely to respond and get a W here are they really going to win this one in complete blowout fashion? To me this line is far too high when you consider that Boston has their sights set on making a series out of this. Keep in mind, they're already guaranteed of getting a Game 5 on their game floor so they know they can still battle and make something out of this series. Also, once the mighty has fallen once it can cast a little bit of doubt upon a team. In other words, the Cavs don't have the same "unbeatable" aura flowing around them the way they did before getting upset in Game 3 Sunday. In terms of ATS stats, since the All Star break, the Cavs only once have had a single ATS standalone loss. In other words, when they are off of a defeat at the betting window, it almost always has started a streak of ATS losses and I expect that to be the case here as well. The Cavs were on a 6-0-2 ATS run before Sunday's loss but prior to this ATS hot streak, the Cavaliers were on a long-term 9-18-1 ATS run. Could this be the start of their next big decline at the betting window. I certainly am glad to test that theory with the big points being offered here. The Celtics are on a long-term 16-6 ATS run as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. Cleveland is on a 15-25 ATS run when playing with home loss revenge. 10* BOSTON plus the big points Tuesday evening |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +6.5 | Top | 130-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics didn't come this far and battle so hard for home court edge only to get trampled in both games on their home floor to open up this series. In other words, after a "wake up call" in Game 1 on Wednesday, look for Boston to respond in a big way on Friday in Game 2. The Celtics were on a 9-2 ATS run before getting blown out by double digits Wednesday. Boston is 10-4 ATS (and SU!) when off of a loss by 10 points or more this season. While I do indeed expect that the Celtics will win this one outright, I am absolutely going to grab the generous points being offered. Boston is 77-52 ATS the last 3 seasons combined when playing with revenge. As for the mighty Cavaliers, they managed to win Game 1 despite making only 35.5% of their three pointers. That is significant because that type of shooting performance has been an ominous sign for the Cavs in recent months. When Cleveland is held under 38% from three point land in their prior game they have a 2-9 ATS record in their next game! The Celtics will turn up the heat on defense in this game and make the proper adjustments and I look for this game to go right down to the wire which means excellent line value with the generous points being offered here. 10* BOSTON |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
TNT No Doubt ATS Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - The Cavaliers have been off for a week and a half. I know the Cavs were off for a week before they met Toronto and yet they still blasted the Raptors by double digits in that game. However, the Celtics are not the Raptors AND this game is on the road! Look for Cleveland to struggle to put away the top-seeded Celtics here. I do expect Boston to win this game outright but I'll gladly grab the generous points being offered. The Celtics might be a little sore and/or tired after their 7-game battle with the Wizards. However, Boston unless comes into this game with momentum and should play crisp basketball tonight while the Cavaliers could be a little disjointed after the long lay-off. Cleveland is facing one of the higher-scoring teams in the league and, interestingly, the Cavs are 10-13 ATS (and SU!) in games this season against teams that are averaging 106 points or more per game. The Celtics are playing this game with home loss revenge from an embarrassing loss in Boston in early April. This season the Celtics are 23-13 SU and 21-13 ATS when playing with revenge! Ton of respect for the Cavs but they opened up as a 3-point favorite here with good reason and yet everyone has jumped all over them and pushed this line higher. Boston coach Brad Stevens is an excellent coach and the Celtics fought hard to earn the #1 seed and home court edge in the East. They certainly aren't going to easily relinquish it. Look for the Celtics to come out very strong here as the Cavaliers struggle to get back into proper game flow. 10* BOSTON |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -10 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs @ 3:30 ET - Even though the Warriors won the most recent meeting between these teams (by 12 at San Antonio in late March), Golden State still has revenge on their minds heading into this one. The only time this season that the Warriors hosted the Spurs this season, it was Golden State's home opener and they got embarrassed in a 29 point loss. Home loss revenge is a pretty strong motivator and there is another reason to expect the Warriors to show no mercy here. They want to set the tone for this series. Golden State wants to flex their muscles in Game 1 and not give the big dog Spurs any chance to get any momentum going early in this series. This line may look big at -10 but the odds makers opened this one up at double digits with good reason. The Warriors are 8-0 in the post-season and 7 of the 8 wins have come by a double digit margin! As for the Spurs, each of their 6 games with the Rockets was decided by double digits except for the lone OT game. It was that OT loss for Houston that took the wind out of their sails and left them dead in Game 6. No excuse really for that but the Rockets were no match for SA in Game 6 and that helped to create some line value because everyone watched the Spurs blowout the Rockets in that series-clinching road win. The Spurs are 2-4 ATS this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. San Antonio is also 5-9 ATS when off of 2 days or more of rest. The Warriors are on a powerful 14-7 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and, after what happened at Oracle Arena on October 25th, the Spurs have their full attention! 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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05-11-17 | Spurs +7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 114-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Texas Insider - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8 ET - Even though the Rockets are at home and should have won Game 5 outright (rather than just covering in OT), the fact is that the emotional and physical drain on Houston is big right now. That loss in Game 5 really strung the Rockets emotionally. From a physical standpoint Houston went with just a 7-man rotation Tuesday and 6 of those players combined to average 40 minutes in the grueling overtime affair. In fact 4 of the 5 starters did log 40 minutes or more. It's starting to take a toll on the Rockets and I look for this to once again be another tight match-up that could go either way late in the fourth quarter. That said, there is huge line value with the big points being offered in this one and the word here in San Antonio (I have resided in this area for many years) is that Kawhi Leonard's ankle is not an issue at all. The Spurs are 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Rockets are on a 2-7 ATS run in home games. Fade the line move and grab the big points being offered in this one! 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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05-09-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Texas Insider - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8 ET - The Rockets got their transition game going in Game 4 and they also got their three point shooting back on track. Both teams have each won on their opponents home court but the difference now is that the Spurs being without Tony Parker is absolutely a big deal. San Antonio managed to rise up in Game 3, their first game after he got hurt. But the Rockets then made the proper adjustments on how to attack the Spurs without Parker and, of course, Game 4 was a full display of just how successful those adjustments can be. Of course it's a bit of cat and mouse here as SA coach Gregg Popovich will most certainly have his team ready to go here and will make some adjustments after getting blown out in Game 4. However, one thing is for certain, Pop's ability to truly "replace" his floor leader Parker is just not there. This is a glaring hole for the Spurs and yet this line is set right near where it was in Games 1 and 2 here in San Antonio. How can that be? It's because the betting public likes to play the "zig zag" theory and many will be backing the Spurs here to bounce back off of the ugly Game 4 loss. The fact that the dynamics surrounding Game 5 are much bigger than anything a "zig zag" can properly address is why we're getting amazing line value with the Rockets here. I'll take it! Grab the points as Houston is 12-5 ATS as an underdog this season. By the way, the Spurs are only 4-6 ATS this season and 10-15 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a loss by a double digit margin. San Antonio will certainly be looking to bounce back but I just don't see it sans Parker and with the Rockets fully prepared to maintain the momentum. Keep in mind they blasted the Spurs in SA in Game 1 to start this series. 10* HOUSTON ROCKETS |
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05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz +8.5 | Top | 121-95 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - NBA Monday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - The Jazz are going to fight hard (just like the Raptors did yesterday) as they look to avoid the series sweep on their home floor. Even though Toronto did fall short yesterday, they got the cover for some and pushed for others. In this case Utah is being given an even bigger number in comparison with the Raptors and there is solid line value here with this hungry home dog. The Warriors managed to pull away very late in Game 3 but that has also created line value for Game 4 because this line is a bucket higher even though the Jazz were "right there" with Golden State in the fourth quarter before a late run for the Warriors sealed Utah's fate. The Jazz are 39-16 ATS the last 3 seasons when playing with home loss revenge and they are still 7-3 ATS in all playoff games this season. Also, Utah is 8-4 ATS (and SU!) when off of a loss by a double digit margin this season. The Jazz are definitely going to go hard tonight and look to notch that highly sought home win to extend this series and avoid the sweep. Even with Saturday's win, Golden State is only 3-6 ATS this season in games against teams that allow an average of 98 points or less per game. The Warriors very well could stamp their ticket to the Western Conference finals tonight but the points are simply too much here as I anticipate this one going to the final horn. 10* UTAH JAZZ |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9 ET - Surprisingly the Spurs were able to get an upset win on the road at Houston in Game 3 even without Tony Parker and even after a huge fourth quarter in Game 2 had propelled them to a massive home court win. Sometimes teams are able to rise up in the first game after a star goes down as everyone is so highly motivated to perform huge and make up for the star's absence. However, those teams then often fall flat in the 2nd game. That is not the only thing going in our favor here however as the other big key is the Rockets are still at home and they are coming off of a dreadful shooting performance and a 2nd straight blowout loss. Sometime a good team will lose bad once but when they lose bad in back to back games there is no doubt about the effort their going to bring in Game 3 of such a scenario. Houston is 9-3 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Rockets are also 14-4 SU (and 12-6 ATS) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Harden needs some help from his teammates after he was the only big scorer for the Rockets in Game 3. Similar to how others stepped up for the Spurs in the first game without Parker, look for others to step up for the Rockets to help provide more balanced scoring in a must win scenario in Game 4. Houston can ill afford to go back to SA down 3-1 in this series. Keep in mind, this is not the Spurs of the "Dynasty Years" and I look for San Antonio to drop to 4-8 ATS their last 12 games when leading in a playoff series. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz +5.5 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
ABC Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:30 ET - The Jazz went 29-12 at home in the regular season. Though they're down 0-2 in this series they certainly showed plenty of fight at Golden State and did get the cover in each game. Some of the adjustments that Utah made in the 2nd half of that game certainly paid off and the Jazz were able to close within as close as 6 in the fourth quarter. Grabbing some momentum from those adjustments as well as the fact that they now get a game on their home floor, I would not be surprised to see Utah get the outright upset here but certainly there is value with the generous points being offered. Even though he's listed as probable, Draymond Green's knee injury is something that the Warriors can afford to be careful with and rest him some as they are working toward a long playoff march. As for the Jazz, there is no time to waste and, though George Hill is questionable for this game, I would be surprised if he is not back out there running the offense for Utah in this one and that will be a big plus. Either way, I am grabbing the home dog here. The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Warriors. Also, Utah is 8-3 ATS (and SU!) this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Tonight I look for the Jazz to improve to an incredible 8-2 ATS in this post-season. Look for the Warriors to drop to 2-7 ATS this season in games played against teams that allow an average of 98 points or less per game. 10* UTAH JAZZ plus the points Saturday evening. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
Western Conf Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9:30 ET - After getting embarrassed in the 4th quarter at San Antonio Wednesday night, the Rockets will be ready to respond here. The Spurs found that their small ball lineup worked well even without Tony Parker on the floor after he got hurt early in the 4th quarter. Even though Parker is now out for the post-season, the Spurs still have others that can step in and maintain the small ball attack in Game 3. However, what is unlikely to happen is for the Spurs to again shoot 54.5% from the field. That said, the Spurs could be in trouble willing to play a game where the winning team is in the 120s. The fact is that even though this series is 1-1, the way it's being played thusfar certainly favors the Rockets. Houston loves to get involved in high-scoring shootouts and they'll hold the upper hand in this one at home. The Rockets had won 6 of 7 before the loss Wednesday. The Spurs barely got by a Memphis team that was without Tony Allen in round one and then San Antonio got pounded in Game 1 of this series before responding in Game 2. One game certainly does not sure all that ailed the Spurs and there will be points in this game where they'll certainly miss the veteran leadership of their floor general, Tony Parker. The Spurs were on a 5-8 ATS run before the big win in Game 2. The Rockets are 25-7 SU (and 21-11 ATS) this season when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. Bounce back time for the Rockets here. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-03-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 96-121 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
TNT Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - Again, the "zig zag" theory is in effect here and yet I'll gladly be a contrarian and step in on the other side of it. Many will be looking to back the Spurs after the ugly loss in Game One. However, I rode the Rockets to victory there and, as I mentioned in my write-up for Monday's game, San Antonio is just not the team they use to be. I firmly believe that had the Grizzlies had Tony Allen available for that first round series, the Spurs would not have even got past Memphis! Now the Spurs have quickly found out they have their hands full with this uber-talented scoring machine filled with lethal three point shooters. The Rockets simply are too much for the Spurs and, though San Antonio will surely make adjustments and will look to respond here on their home floor, that still is no guarantee of victory and certainly no guarantee of a cover. Let's face it, the Rockets are better than they use to be, and the Spurs are just not the same team they were a few short years ago. Kawhi Leonard is an amazing player for San Antonio but just look at the production the Spurs have gotten from the key that is supposed to be their 2nd best player, LaMarcus Aldridge. He hasn't scored more than 20 points in a game since March 23rd and had a very poor Game One performance. The Rockets are relishing the underdog role they are in for this series and they are 12-4 ATS an underdog this season. Houston is also 6-2 SU in recent seasons when leading in a playoff series. The Spurs are on a 2-5 (SU and ATS) run in 2nd round playoff games. After a loss by 10 points or more San Antonio went just 3-6 ATS this season. After allowing 115 points or more the last 3 seasons combined the Spurs are only 4-6 SU! They aren't necessarily going to bounce back here like many expect them to. The last 5 games between the Rockets and Spurs have featured only one Spurs win by more than 2 points and that one came by just 6. I'll take the points with a team that gives SA some major "match-up issues". 10* HOUSTON |
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05-02-17 | Jazz +13 v. Warriors | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Top Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:30 ET - The Warriors are, of course, the superior team. But that doesn't mean they're going to crush the Jazz in Game One. After having more than a week off there is just no way that Golden State is going to be clicking on all cylinders here in Game One on Tuesday night. At the same time, the Jazz are riding the momentum of their series win over the Clippers where they got the big Game 7 victory on the road on Tuesday. In fact, that was the 8th time in the last 9 Utah games that the road team has gotten the cash. The road team has also been a big money winner in Golden State's recent games with the away team getting the cash in 9 of their last 13 games. Look for the fact that the Jazz have been playing consistently while the Warriors are off of a long layoff to be a huge difference maker here. Also, Golden State is only 2-4 ATS this season when facing a team that allows 98 points or less per game and the Utah D is rock solid. I look for the Jazz to improve to 6-2 ATS in the post-season with this one decided by single digits as they keep this one much closer than many people are expecting. The Warriors rely so heavily on their outside shooting and I just don't see them being strong in that department after the long lay-off. 10* UTAH JAZZ |
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05-01-17 | Rockets +6 v. Spurs | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
TNT Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - The Spurs barely got by a Memphis team that was without their top defender Tony Allen. My strong opinion is that the Spurs would not have advanced if Allen had not been hurt for the Grizzlies. Memphis played them tough in the regular season and then gave them hell in the post-season even without Allen! I have said it before and I'll say it again, because I reside in the San Antonio area and I follow this team closely. The Spurs are not what they use to be. Certainly they are still a talented, solid team that is well coached but I don't believe they have what it takes to go far in the post-season. Now the Spurs go from facing a short-handed Grizzlies team that barely got into the playoffs to facing one of the best in the west as they host the Rockets. The road team won 3 of the 4 meetings straight-up in the regular season and the road team did go a perfect 4-0 ATS in the season series! One meeting was decided by 6 points and the other three were each decided by only 2 points! You can see why I like having the points in this one and I also like the fact that the Spurs lost 4-2 in their most recent trip to the 2nd round and they also went just 2-4 ATS in that series. With Tim Duncan retired and Manu Giinobili no longer the X factor he once was, too much is expected of Kawhi Leonard. The Rockets weaponry will prove to be too much (at least in Game 1) and I'll gladly fade the line move as the betting markets have pushed this line higher! The Rockets won their most recent 2nd round playoff series, are 4-1 (SU and ATS) when playing with 3 or more days of rest between games and I look for them to improve to a fantastic 13-4 ATS as an underdog this season as they continue to thrive in that role! 10* HOUSTON |
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04-28-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 105-83 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Playoff Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Bulls lost the turnover battle big in Wednesday's Game 5 and that certainly was a factor in them ending up on the wrong end of a 11-point game. Chicago knocked down 50% of their shots but they could not overcome the turnover differential and they'll need to play a much cleaner game tonight. With the Celtics not shooting well - 19 off 77 from three point land the last 2 games - they are fortunate to still be up in this series. The poor shooting catches up with Boston here. The Bulls will go "all out" at home in hopes of forcing a Game 7 and Chicago plays solid defense when fully focused. Full focus will certainly be at the forefront for the Bulls in this one and they are 7-2 SU and ATS this season (and 16-5 ATS and 15-6 SU the last 3 seasons combined) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The Celtics are a horrible 2-15 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, Boston is 6-11 ATS this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. The Bulls have shot well in each of their last two road games with the Celtics but, surprisingly shot poorly in the 2 home games in this series. That has led to line value here as the Bulls are actually a home dog now in this one. Even with Rajon Rondo still out, the Bulls have more than enough weapons to force a Game 7 with a big home W tonight. 10* CHICAGO BULLS |
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04-27-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +4 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
TNT Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - I lost a tough one Tuesday when the Spurs pulled away late to get the cover as a double digit fave over the Grizzlies in Game 5 of this series. However, the Spurs finally got some points from Manu Ginobili and they shot a ridiculous 14 of 28 from three point land. Memphis responded at home in both Games 3 and 4 after losing Games 1 and 2 and I expect the Grizzlies to again come up big on their home floor in Game 6 after coming up short in Game 5. Each of the last 3 games in this series have gone over the total and the Grizzles are 19-10 SU (and 18-11 ATS) the last 3 seasons combined when they enter a game on an "over streak" of 3 games or more. The Spurs are only 4-6 SU (and 3-7 ATS) the last 3 seasons combined when they are leading in a playoff series. Spurs had lost 5 of their last 7 (SU and ATS) before getting the big win in Game 5 that was largely attributable to red hot three point shooting. The odds of that continuing here just are not that good and the Grizzlies have been fired up ever since their head coach's tirade about the officiating after Game 2. There is no way that Memphis is going to stop fighting in Game 6 as it's "win or the season is over" for the Grizzlies. Dating back to the regular season and including this series so far, the home team has a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in the Spurs last 7 games. Look for more of the same Thursday as San Antonio has not had a hot shooting night on the road since they shot 48% from the field at Minnesota over a month ago! The Grizzlies "D up" hard in this one. 10* MEMPHIS |
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04-26-17 | Bulls +8 v. Celtics | Top | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Bulls aren't done yet. I know they just lost two straight at home to the Celtics and are still trying to adjust without Rajon Rondo, but the fact is Chicago won both games at Boston to open up this series. Additionally, the Bulls started out dominating the boards in this series and that domination has continued throughout. With just slightly better shooting, the Bulls just aren't going to lose this game by double digits. That said, there is tremendous line value with the big number posted on this game. Keep in mind, Boston's Sunday win in Game 4 of this series was the 1st cover in the last 4 times the Celtics were off of a game where they allowed 100 points or less. I look for the Bulls to respond in a big way here after scoring under 100 in back to back home games. Look for Boston to drop to 1-4 ATS the last 5 times they've been off of a game where they held their team under the century mark. The Celtics are an ugly 4-10 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Bulls are a fantastic 8-4 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Look for the Celtics to drop to 17-27 ATS in home games this season while the Bulls improve to 29-19 ATS as an underdog this season. Big dog value being offered here as the Bulls are off of back to back losses and haven't lost three straight games since early March. They'll make some adjustments here sans Rondo. 10* CHICAGO |
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04-25-17 | Grizzlies +10 v. Spurs | Top | 103-116 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9 ET - The Spurs are getting heavily played again as this line is already up to double digits. Do you remember the Big 3 of the Spurs? Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker. Why do I mention this? Duncan is now retired. Ginobili is 0 for 15 in the series and still hasn't scored a single point. As for Parker, he did bounce back to play his best game of the series in Game 4 but he was held scoreless in Game 3 and his assists are way down in the post-season. The reason I mention all this is because the Spurs true star now (and arguably their only star), Kawhi Leonard scored 43 points in Game 4 and, guess what, San Antonio still lost! This is bad news for the Spurs because they just aren't the team they use to be. I know they had a great regular season but it's playoff time and for a team like Memphis (without the defender - Tony Allen - that was going to be key in slowing down Leonard) to be as tough on SA as they have been, it shows just how far the Spurs have fallen. Making the situation even worse for San Antonio is that they've now given Memphis the confidence that comes with back to back wins. Ever since the Memphis coach went off on all the officials after Game 2 you've seen a different Grizzlies team and they won't stop on Tuesday night. Memphis is now 9-4 SU and ATS in games against teams that allow 98 points or less on the season. Also, the Grizzlies thrive on the underdog role and building momentum from it. They are 12-8 ATS (and 14-6 SU!) when off of an upset win as an underdog this season! The Spurs are just 4-9 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games and though they should get the home win tonight it's very likely to be an all out war decided by single digits. That said, grab the big points in this one. 10* MEMPHIS |
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04-23-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +3 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - The Rajon Rondo injury is certainly impacting to the Bulls but it is also far from being insurmountable. I look for Chicago to bounce back in a big way at home after getting embarrassed at home on Friday. Certainly that final score looks ugly as the Bulls fell by 17 points to the Celtics but Boston knocked down 46% of their three pointers and outscored Chicago by 33 points from beyond the arc. That's your ballgame right there and that is highly unlikely to be repeated on Sunday. The Celtics won big in Game 3 despite being outrebounded (they've lost badly on boards in this series) and despite attempting just 7 free throws! Now you can see why I am expecting Chicago to prevail in Game 4. They will respond at home after the embarrassing home loss. Keep in mind, the Bulls had covered 4 straight and 12 of their last 16 before losing Friday. Also, the Celtics had failed to cover 9 of their last 12 before the big win in Game 3. The Bulls are 28-18 ATS as an underdog this season. The Celtics are 5-12 ATS this season when off of a win by 10 points or more. Even with the win Friday, Boston is still just 3-10 SU in playoff games the last 3 seasons combined. Look for the Bulls to improve to 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 playoff games as they are poised to bounce back and win outright here but certainly I will grab the points being offered. 10* CHICAGO |
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04-23-17 | Rockets +1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:30 ET - The Rockets don't want to give the Thunder any hope in this series and that means they certainly can't afford to lose another tight one at Oklahoma City. Houston can't allow the Thunder to tie it up and I like the Rockets chances to take the 3-1 lead here. Keep in mind, the Thunder shot 55.4% from the field (including 47.4% from three point land) and the Rockets were held under 46% from the field plus misfired on 25 of their 35 three pointers and yet Houston still only lost Game 3 by a bucket! That says a lot right there and I expect a more "normal" shooting performance tonight. The noteworthy aspect of that is the fact that OKC had been held to 43.5% or less from the field in 10 of their last 12 games before the offensive explosion on Friday night. As for the Rockets, they haven't been held below 45.8% from the field in any of their last 4 games. Also, on the season, Houston is the better three point shooting team so the Game 3 result certainly was a bit of an aberration. The Rockets are 10-4 ATS this season as an underdog. Houston is also 19-11 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. OKC is 7-14 ATS this season (and 17-35 ATS the L3 seasons combined) in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Thunder also are 22-37 (SU and ATS) the last 3 seasons combined in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. 10* HOUSTON |
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04-22-17 | Wizards v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 5:30 ET - The Hawks lost the turnover battle in each of the first two games and that proved to be the difference maker in the two losses, each by single digits. They truly had a great shot at winning the 2nd game outright but lost the game and the cover late in that one. Look for Atlanta to respond now that they're back home where they've won 4 straight games and also covered 3 straight. The home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams and all the games have been decided by at least 3 points. The low line here makes sense considering the Wizards were favored by about 5 or 6 at home but the fact is the low number gives great line value to a solid home team. Atlanta is 93-43 SU in home games the last 3 seasons combined. The Wizards are 11-21 SU the last 32 times they've been a dog. That said, any SU loss is likely to also result in an ATS loss for Washington here considering the low number posted on this game. The Hawks are 3-1 ATS the last 4 times they've been held to 40.5% or less from the field. After a poor shooting performance in Game 2, and hungry and highly motivated for a win to get back in this series and avoid the 'death wish' of a 3-0 hole, look for thee Hawks to respond and get the big home win here. 10* ATLANTA |
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04-21-17 | Rockets +2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 9:30 ET - Oklahoma City took 19 more shots from the field in Game Two compared to the Rockets and also had fewer turnovers and won the battle of the boards. However, the end result was a loss for the Thunder and that certainly doesn't bode well for Game Three for OKC. The problem for Oklahoma City is they're just not shooting well at all right now. The Thunder have been held to 43.5% or less from the field in 7 straight games and 10 of their last 12. The Rockets are at 49% so far in this series and even though Houston has been held under their season average of 36% from three point land, the Rockets have still managed to win both games. You know a big game from Houston's outside shooters is coming and, that said, when the markets zig I am glad to zag as most everyone is likely to be backing the Thunder here at home since they're in an 0-2 hole and now back home. This ignores the fact that, sans Durant, the Thunder are just 1-5 and the lone OKC win came by just 2 points. That said, giving the Rockets the 2.5 or 3 points they're getting in this match-up, Houston would be on a 6-0 ATS run their last 6 versus Oklahoma City. In fact, the Rockets are on a 10-3 ATS run the last 3 seasons combined versus OKC and that includes 5-1 ATS in games played at Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 5-15 SU this season in games with a posted total of 220 points or more and I again expect the Rockets offensive potency to prove to be took much for OKC here. Westbrook is simply being asked to do too much with this team. Look for the Rockets to improve to 11-4 ATS as an underdog this season. 10* HOUSTON |
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04-20-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +4 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:30 ET - Of course the Memphis head coach made some headlines with his comments about the officiating after Game Two and got fined $30K for said comments. One could argue it may end up being the best $30K he's ever spent! I jest of course but there is some truth to my statement. The Grizzlies are fired up, they are back home, they should get some calls tonight, and let's not forget that Memphis split the season series with the Spurs as they won both games at home. In fact, including regular season and post-season, the home team has now won 6 straight match-ups between these teams! Of course the absence of Tony Allen has hurt the Grizzlies here against the Spurs in this series but this is the do or die game for Memphis as they have chance to either make the series "interesting" tonight or they fall into a 3-0 hole. I believe the former will prove true but I am grabbing the points in case the Grizzlies fall just short and lose a close one. The fact is that Memphis is going to go "all out" tonight and the Spurs, even with the win in Game 2, are still just 4-4 SU (and 3-5 ATS) when leading in a playoff series. The Grizzlies respond big here and I do like for the free throw disparity gap to be closing in a big way in tonight's game. That had a big role in the Spurs only attempting 61 field goals compared to 82 for the Grizzlies and yet San Antonio still won the game by a double digit margin. Big changes coming tonight. 10* MEMPHIS |
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04-19-17 | Hawks +5.5 v. Wizards | Top | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7 ET - The Hawks, after losing game one despite outrebounding the Wizards and earning 22 more free throw attempts and having the stronger bench play, will make the proper adjustments in game two. The two day break should favor Atlanta and they're plenty familiar with John Wall and company and can't let them run wild like they did in the 3rd quarter on Sunday. That was the difference maker in the game as the Hawks looked strong in the first half. Atlanta is 27-11 SU when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, prior to the game one result, the dog had gotten the cash in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams. The Hawks 4 prior visits to Washington had resulted in 1 outright win and two losses by 4 or less points. Good value with the points here considering that Atlanta, before a meaningless season finale, had gone 6-2 SU with one of the 2 losses by just a bucket. Washington had gone just 8-9 SU to wrap up the regular season and 5 of their last 9 wins this season came by 5 points or less. The defense of the Wizards let them down late in the season while the Hawks defense had tightened things up to close out the season. In other words, don't overreact to the Game 1 result. The Wizards took Game 1 but I certainly would not be surprised to see the Hawks even this up with an outright win and there is definitely added value with the generous points being offered. Looking at the last 14 games between these teams there has not been a single occurrence where one has beaten the other by more than 4 points in back to back games. I like those odds! 10* ATLANTA HAWKS |
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04-18-17 | Bulls +7 v. Celtics | Top | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - The normal reaction here would be to back the Celtics at home and looking to avoid going into an 0-2 hole in this series. However, Boston showed some very concerning signs in Game One and even if Chicago doesn't again get the upset here, the points should prove to be enough for the cover. Boston got dominated on the glass on Sunday and they've been losing the battle of the boards far too often of late while the Bulls are on a streak where they've been a rebounding machine the past few weeks. Chicago also has been playing rock solid defense with only 89.4 points allowed per game in their last 5 games. Boston has struggled at times on the defensive end late in the season and that was expected to potentially change come playoff time but perhaps the added distraction of Isaiah Thomas' sister having passed away in a car accident is impacting the team. In any event, the Bulls certainly look like the hungrier, fresher team and Chicago is on a 9-4 ATS run in playoff games while the Celtics are on a 2-9 SU run in playoff games! The Bulls are 27-17 ATS as an underdog this season while Boston is 2-7 ATS this season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. Look for the hungry road dog to be in this one all the way. They're aggressive, they've got some key veteran players, and they're confident as they've won 8 of their last 10 games. 10* CHICAGO |
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04-16-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -6 | Top | 106-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 6:30 ET - The markets reacted, as expected, to the news that Isaiah Thomas' sister tragically passed away in a car accident early Saturday morning. Now a line that was as high as a -8 has dropped to a -6. This is as if bettors have intimate knowledge of the family, how close knit they are or are not, and how Thomas will react to this. News flash: they really don't know any of this. That said, Thomas is going to play Sunday and I expect his teammates to also rally around him and I also can tell you that when looking at some of the historical events with this family and Thomas being on the East Coast and his sister on the West Coast I think it is evident that this is not going to be nearly as impacting as many think it would be. In any event, I would have been fine laying 8 here but am even happier to lay just 6. By the way, I don't mean to make light of the passing of someone in the Thomas family. I express my condolences on that. I am just saying it's unlikely to be anywhere as impacting to Thomas as some think it may be. If anything it is likely to drive he and his Celtics teammates (on his behalf) to play even harder on Sunday evening. I know the Bulls made a nice late season push and have some playoff veterans. However, I also know that the Celtics earned this #1 seed and are now being severely undervalued even though they have the home court edge. The Celtics went 11-6 ATS against Central Division opponents this season. The Bulls went 3-8 SU (and 4-7 ATS) this season when off of a game where they allowed 90 points or less. The home team has won each of the last 7 meetings between these teams and the average margin of victory has been 8 points. Look for the home team to get it done again and 11 of the Celtics last 14 wins have been by 7 points or more. 12 of the Bulls last 15 losses have come by 7 points or more. 10* BOSTON |
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04-15-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -9.5 | Top | 82-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8 ET - Memphis gave the Spurs some trouble in the regular season and, as a result, we're being given some line value here. Let's not forget that in the post-season last year San Antonio ripped the Grizzlies by an average margin of 22 points per game in an absolute shellacking of Memphis. While the Spurs are not necessarily the same team as last year, they are still unquestionably one of the league's best teams and, in game one, they host a Grizzlies team that relies on physical play and defense to overcome it's offensive shortcomings. That said, Memphis has a major problem here as they lost Tony Allen to injury in their final regular season game. He is a veteran defensive stalwart that the Grizzlies absolutely had to have to have a real shot at slowing down Kawhi Leonard. With Allen out, Leonard is going to run roughshod over the Grizzlies and let's also not forget the Spurs are one of the top three point shooting teams in the league. This one is likely to quickly turn into a home rout as San Antonio takes advantage of an Allen-less Grizz team that lost 9 of its last 12 games. Memphis went 1-11 SU (and ATS!) when playing with 2 days of rest this season. The Spurs are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings with the Grizzlies and the average margin of victory in those 9 games was 15.7 points per win! Look for another home rout here! 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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04-15-17 | Predators v. Blackhawks -1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Puck Line Punisher - Rickenbach NHL 10* Top Play Chicago Blackhawks Puck Line -1.5 goals +180 vs Nashville Predators @ 8:05 ET Saturday - I know it may seem a little "scary" to lay the 1.5 goals with the Blackhawks here, this is a huge plus money return being offered and Chicago needs to bounce back at home after dropping game one of this series. The Hawks simply can't afford to go down 0-2 to the Preds and they are fired up about responding here. Should we expect them to respond? You bet! They went 7-1 the past 2 seasons when they were trailing in a playoff series. 4 of Nashville's last 6 losses have come by a margin of 2 goals or more. 13 of the Blackhawks last 17 wins have been decided by a margin of 2 goals or more. As you can see from those stats, if you're expecting Chicago to win here, there are strong odds that point toward the win coming by at least two goals. The Blackhawks are so fired up after last year's first round exit versus St Louis that I am certain they are going to respond in a huge way here against the Predators. By the way, 5 of the Hawks last 7 wins have come by a margin of at least 2 goals. Also, the Preds went 0-4 this season when off of a shutout win. When on the road after a shutout win, the Predators lost the 2 games by a combined score of 10 to 3 with one loss by 3 goals and the other defeat by 4 goals. I look for a another blowout loss here. 10* CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS puck line -1.5 goals |
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04-12-17 | Mavs +8 v. Grizzlies | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - The Mavericks will likely play without Dirk Nowitzki and Jose Juan Barea tonight and, as a result, this line has jumped tremendously. This is even though Memphis has no concern about this game whatsoever and the Grizzlies head coach admitted he is spending zero time worrying about the Mavericks and all of his focus is going into their upcoming playoff opponent, the Spurs. The hungry role players that will be on the floor tonight for Dallas are playing their final game of the the season. Conversely, the Grizzlies players (including the bench) are excited about the upcoming post-season and are just trying to stay sharp in tonight's game. I give the Mavericks a great shot at winning this game outright as the players who are on the floor tonight will be giving it their all and looking to close out the season with a win while the Grizzlies only concern is staying healthy for a big match-up with the Spurs coming up. By the way, Memphis has lost 8 of their last 11 games and have gone 1-10 SU and ATS this season when playing with two days of rest between games. The Mavericks are 15-10 ATS this season when off of a double digit loss and they'll be the more focused team in tonight's game. Grab the big dog value in a game where distracted Memphis just isn't likely to score enough to get a big cover no matter who the Mavs have on the floor. The Grizzlies have only reached triple digits 4 times in their last 11 games! This should be an ugly game where there is solid line value with the big points! 10* DALLAS plus the points Wednesday evening |
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04-11-17 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 109-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8:35 ET - The Nuggets playoff hopes got dashed by a last second super long three pointer against the Thunder and, as disappointing as that is, Denver knew their post-season chances were slim. The fact is, the way they lost to OKC is going to have the Nuggets fired up here. That was their final home game of the season and Oklahoma City ruined it for them. What is the only thing that Denver can do now to make up for it per se? They can beat the Mavericks in their home finale and at least ruin someone else's. You can bet (literally!) that the Nuggets are geared up to do just that here. Look for a strong effort from the road team here as they look to avenge a 20 point loss in their only other visit to Dallas this season. It's time for redemption and they want to do to the Mavs what the Thunder just did to them. The Nuggets had covered 4 straight and 11 of 15 before that loss. Conversely, the Mavericks come into this game having lost 4 straight and 8 of their last 9. The Mavs have seen each of their last 3 games go over the total as they've allowed an average of 113 points per game with some sub-par defense included! The past 3 seasons combined, when the Mavericks are on a 3-0 run to the over, they have gone 8-16 ATS! The D is just not there for the Mavs right now, and the Nuggets will bring their D in the Big D tonight as they look to let out some frustration. Look for the Nuggets to improve to 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a losing record. 10* DENVER |
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04-10-17 | Hornets +7 v. Bucks | Top | 79-89 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Bucks just clinched a playoff spot and I know they have some motivation to win here because of seeding for the playoffs but I also know they're laying big points here considering the Hornets just got eliminated from the post-season over the weekend and would love nothing more than to upset the Bucks tonight. Charlotte will be motivated by the opportunity to push the Bucks down a little in the standings. Keep in mind, this is a unique situation as Milwaukee just got in this past weekend and Charlotte just got knocked out over the weekend. That makes this a bit of a revenge spot for the Hornets who also do have true revenge here because they lost at home to the Bucks two weeks ago. The road team has covered 6 straight meetings in this series and the away team has notched the outright SU win on the road in 5 straight meetings. Even though the Bucks are expected to have Malcolm Brogdon back tonight his back may flare up on him again and he is truly not 100% and, also, Giannis Antetokounmpo is still dealing with an illness. That is why, even though Kemba Walker of the Hornets may not play tonight, I still like the road dog to put up one helluva fight in this game and that should be enough for the road cash even if they fall short of the upset win. It's payback time here. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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04-09-17 | Mavs +1.5 v. Suns | Top | 111-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Phoenix Suns @ 6:05 ET - The first numbers posted on this one had Dallas as a 2.5 point favorite and they are now a 1.5 point underdog as of early Sunday morning. With a full 4 point move here we are even getting more line value in a game where the Mavs are highly motivated and catching the Suns at the right time for a big win. Keep in mind, Phoenix is off of their huge win over Russell Westbrook and company as they knocked off the Thunder by a 120-99 final on Friday night. Prior to that win the Suns had lost 13 straight and they could definitely come out a little flat here. Dallas has lost two home match-ups with Phoenix this season as they Mavericks only win over the Suns was a victory in a neutral site game played in Mexico. Phoenix is 2-11 SU in Sunday games this season while the Mavericks are 9-1 SU (and 10-0 ATS!) in Sunday games this season. I don't use a lot of "day of the week" trends but the Sunday trends are worth paying attention too because the Sunday games involves two key factors. That is, how a team handles things the night before (being that it is a Saturday night) and then how they prep for what is generally an earlier than usual tip-off the next day. As you can see from those numbers above, Dallas has handled it well this season and Phoenix certainly has not. Also, going further back, the last 3 seasons combined Dallas is 24-11 SU in Sunday games while Phoenix is 11-27 SU! The Mavs will be hungry to bounce back after their home loss to the Spurs Friday and the Mavericks are 14-8 ATS this when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Suns are off the huge win over the Thunder and Phoenix has gone 8-13 ATS (and 5-16 SU) this season when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. I'll gladly fade them in this spot as the Mavericks are out for revenge. 10* DALLAS |
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04-08-17 | Bucks v. 76ers +6.5 | Top | 90-82 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The Sixers were held to a ridiculous 36.3% from the field in Thursday's home game versus the Bulls and still only lost the game by 12 points. I expect Philly to bounce back and shoot much better here and that's bad news for a Bucks team that is simply playing pathetic and inexcusable basketball right now. Milwaukee hasn't even managed to punch their ticket to the playoffs just yet because they've lost 3 straight games. Overall it's an 0-4 ATS run for the Bucks and they've averaged just 84 points per game in their last two games and yet they've allowed 106.4 points per game in their last 7 games. It looks like Milwaukee is falling back into old habits and the Sixers are a dangerous home dog when they're motivated. That said, the Bucks have had the 76'ers number in recent meetings in Philly and the Sixers will be out for some payback here. This is especially true with Philadelphia coming off of back to back embarrassing performances at home. The 76'ers played awful defense in one game and had awful offense in the next. They still have covered 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record and are 20-8 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. Also, the Sixers are 19-8 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Bucks are an ugly 5-11 ATS against Atlantic Division foes this season. Also, Milwaukee is 16-27 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record this season. The Bucks underestimate the 76'ers here and I smell an upset but will certainly grab the generous points. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-07-17 | Hawks +12 v. Cavs | Top | 114-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:35 ET - The very first number that came out on this game was a -9 for Cleveland and now the Cavaliers are all the way up to being a 12 point choice in this game. I'll gladly grab the value on the other side with the Hawks plus the big points. Atlanta is likely to be without Paul Millsap but, keep in mind, the Cavs are expected to be without Tristan Thompson and that hurts since they don't have Andrew Bogut whom they had high hopes for before he got hurt a month ago. The interior defense of the Cavaliers is going to be impacted here and I look for Dwight Howard and company to take advantage. This game has meaning for both teams so I expect plenty of intensity from both teams and a much closer game than many are expecting here. Keep in mind, the road team has won 4 straight meetings between these teams. Atlanta is seeking revenge for a hard-fought 5-point home loss to the Cavaliers in their most recent meeting. The Cavs are suddenly receiving a lot of love because they just trounced Boston but the Hawks are also coming off of a win over the Celtics. Also, let's not forget that Cleveland had lost 11 of their last 18 games before their recent 4-game winning streak. By the way the 4 victories have included wins over the Magic and 76'ers (2 very poor teams) as well as a 5-point win over Indiana. This is simply too many points in a game that means a lot to Atlanta. The Hawks have won 3 of 5 after a tough recent stretch and one of the two losses came by just a bucket. The point is they should hang tough in this one throughout. The Hawks are 16-10 ATS as an underdog this season and 11-4 ATS in divisional games. The Cavaliers are 7-12 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 10* ATLANTA |
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04-06-17 | Bulls -6 v. 76ers | Top | 102-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (-) @ Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:05 ET - The Sixers beat the Bulls in Chicago two weeks ago but much has changed since then. Philly is showing that they have officially thrown in the towel on the season. Yes, the lack of a shot at post-season has long been determined but at least Philadelphia was playing with some pride. However, they enter this game having lost 4 straight and the 76'ers have allowed a ridiculous shooting percentage of 56.5% from the field in their last 3 games. They now face a Bulls team seeking revenge and still alive in the playoff race. I highly doubt that Philadelphia is going to be able to match the intensity of Chicago in this one. The Bulls had won 4 straight before the loss to the Knicks and Chicago will bounce back here. They know they have 4 very winnable games to wrap up the regular season and they know it's basically a "win and your in" situation for them. The Bulls only shot 38% at New York Tuesday and they are 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they've been held under 41% from the field. Also, Philly is unlikely to shoot 55% like they did at Chicago two weeks ago. The 76'ers last 9 games featured the aberration that was the win at Chicago and, other than that, the 8 games saw the Sixers shoot a combined 42.7% from the field. Philadelphia is 8-15 ATS (and 3-20 SU) when they enter a game off of 3 more consecutive overs. The 76'ers also are now 1-15 SU in April games the past 3 seasons combined. The Bulls get the win here and I look for a big cover too as they improve upon a 31-20 ATS mark in their last 51 games against Atlantic Division opponents. Revenge time here. 10* CHICAGO early Thursday evening. |
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04-03-17 | Blazers +2 v. Wolves | Top | 109-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7 ET - The Trail Blazers opened up as the favorite here but are now a 2 point dog. Of course many are looking at the fact that Minnesota is seeking revenge and would love to play the role of spoiler here. However, the Timberwolves just don't play enough defense to get the stops necessary to stay in front of the Trailblazers. The Blazers have won 6 straight games and 14 of their last 17. The Wolves have lost 7 of their last 9 games. Minny has only won 1 game in it last 7 meetings with Portland and that victory came by a single point. In other words, give the Blazers +2 (the line on this game as of early gameday morning) and they would be on a 7-0 ATS run in games against the T-wolves. The other reason people are likely fading Portland has to do with Jusuf Nurkic being out but Noah Vonleh got extra minutes against Phoenix as a result of Nurkic's absence and he scored 14 points and had 13 rebounds. The Blazers still have enough firepower to get past a Wolves team that has allowed a ridiculous 54% from the field during their current 2-7 streak their last 9 games. Look for more of the same Monday. The Trailblazers are 9-3 SU (and 8-4 ATS) in divisional games this season and 4-0 SU and ATS the last 4 times they've been off of a game where they scored 130 points or more. The Timberwolves are 4-8 SU in divisional games this season and 4-10 ATS when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. 10* PORTLAND |
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04-02-17 | Mavs +6 v. Bucks | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday NBA 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - This line looks "funny" to me and long-time followers know how I feel about "strange" lines. They are usually set that way for a reason. In this case, the line on this game opened up with the Bucks as "only" a 5.5 point favorite even though Milwaukee has won 14 of 17 games and are at home hosting a Mavericks team that has lost 4 straight games and 8 of its last 11. The line appears even more "questionable" when one considers that not only are the Bucks the much hotter team but Dallas has gone 9-26 in road games this season. That said, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the Mavs here. Now, as always, there is support for the contrarian decision. Even though the Bucks are motivated to improve their position in the playoff standings, the Mavericks are even more motivated to make sure they stay alive in the race for a post-season spot. Certainly things are looking bleak for Dallas but I don't see them stopping the fight until the final bell on their season has been rung. The Mavericks have gone 10-6 ATS their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Mavs are a phenomenal 9-0 ATS (and 8-1 SU) in Sunday games this season! Could an outright upset be in the offing here? The Bucks are just 2-5 SU (and an ugly 1-6 ATS) in Sunday games this season. Milwaukee also is only 16-25 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record this season. Additionally, the Bucks are 6-16 ATS in recent season (and 52-93 ATS long-term) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Grab the points! 10* MILWAUKEE plus the points Sunday. |
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04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina -4.5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 8:35 ET - Off of a blowout win versus Kansas where everything seemed to fall into place for the Ducks, it is the perfect time to fade them. Lets not forget Oregon won their three prior games in the tourney as follows: Faced a weak MAAC team (Iona) in the opener, beat Rhode Island by only 3 as 4.5 point choice, and rallied late to beat Michigan by a single point. Give credit to the Ducks for their hard work and effort but they now face their first truly tough test of the tourney as they face a North Carolina team that has a ton of experience in situations like this. The Tar Heels have faced a tougher schedule than the Ducks this season and UNC just beat a very strong Kentucky team. I know I was in the minority on this but I had the Wildcats winning the whole thing this season. Would not have surprised me in the least. The key to the value here is the Tar Heels beat the Wildcats despite making only 3 of 20 three pointers and they also had some issues with turnovers. In Oregon's win over the Jayhawks the Ducks knocked down 11 threes while Kansas made only 5 of 25 from downtown. So Oregon outscored Kansas by 18 points from downtown while UNC got outscored by 12 points from three point land yet both are off of wins. By taking the 3's out of the equation the Tar Heels would have beat Kentucky by 14 while the Ducks would have lost to Kansas by 4. I don't expect UNC to again shoot so poorly from three point land and the Ducks hot shooting is unlikely to continue as the long layoff between games doesn't help. Also, prior to the Wildcats hitting 36.8% of their threes against UNC, the Tar Heels had held 6 of their last 10 opponents under 29.3% from three point land. The Heels are 5-2 ATS as a neutral court fave of 3.5 to 6 points. The Ducks are 2-10 ATS long-term in neutral court games with a posted total in the 150 to 154.5 range. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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04-01-17 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Chicago Bulls @ 5:05 ET - The Bulls are still fighting for a playoff spot but the Hawks haven't clinched theirs either. That said, I am backing an Atlanta team that is rejuvenated and got a little bit of their swagger back thanks to back to back wins. Yes, it is true that the wins came against bad teams (Suns and Sixers) but sometimes that's all it takes for a team to get back into rhythm. Keep in mind, the Bulls are off of back to back wins but, prior to that had been struggling just like the Hawks had. Also, Chicago's most recent win was a big one as they knocked off the defending champs (and division rival) Cavaliers. When off of an upset win as an underdog the Bulls have gone 7-12 SU this season and 16-28 ATS the L3 seasons combined. Even though Chicago is playing this game with home loss revenge the Bulls have gone 4-8 ATS (and 3-9 SU) this season when they are looking to avenge a home defeat. Against southeast division opponents the last 3 seasons Chicago is a combined 17-35 ATS. The Hawks are 10-4 ATS against central division opponents this season and, even though they come into this game with their offense still struggling a bit, Atlanta has been very impressive on the defensive end. The Hawks have held teams to a combined 41% from the field in their last 6 games! By comparison, the Bulls haven't held a team below 44% in any of their past 5 games. Don't be surprised if this is an upset win but certainly I am grabbing the generous points available in this one. 10* ATLANTA |
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03-31-17 | St. Peter's v. Texas A&M Corpus Christi +4.5 | Top | 62-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Friday 10* Top Play Texas A & M Corpus Christi Islanders (+) vs Saint Peter's Peacocks @ 9 ET - As I wrote in my selection involving the Islanders Wednesday over Maryland - Baltimore County and the "funny line", the reality is that TXAMCC is the better team. I respect UMBC especially their star guard but the Islanders have a little better inside-out game going with their two top scorers and I look for that to be a difference maker here. Also, the Isles have held 5 of their last 6 opponents under 42.5% from the field. This is in stark contrast to a UMBC team that has allowed 13 of their last 17 opponents to hit over 45% from the field. Defense and, in my opinion, a little better balanced offense, will prove to be the difference makers in this one. Now, St Peter's certainly has better numbers on defense in comparison with UMBC. However, prior to an ugly 49-44 win over Texas State where the Peacocks made just 31.8% of their shots from the field, their defense in their two previous games away from home saw them allow over 45.6% from the field in each game. Overall, in 3 of their last 4 games, St Peter's has allowed over 34.7% from three point land. Texas A & M Corpus Christi is 16-1 at home this season and 41-6 at home the last 3 seasons combined. Those are SU records and I love the fact that his line opened up at St Peter's -1.5 but the Peacocks already are up to a 4.5 point choice in this game as of early gameday morning. Even though St Peter's just throttled Furman Wednesday, the Paladins were without their head coach as he abruptly took another job over the weekend and that threw the team into disarray. Give the Peacocks credit for taking advantage of Furman's bad situation but St Peter's now face an Islanders team that seems to be a team of destiny in this tournament. The Isles have won their last 4 games by an average margin of 15 points per game even though they were a dog in 3 of those games and only a 2 point fave in the other. Their peeking at the right time and have the right mix of guys (and leadership) to take home the prize tonight. That said, I'll gladly grab the line value with the points being offered here. The Peacocks have gone 22-27 on the road the L3 seasons combined. Look for the Islanders to finish the season 17-1 at home but grab the available points. The Isles only have one loss by more than 3 points in the last 2 months! 10* TEXAS A & M CORPUS CHRISTI |
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03-31-17 | Pistons +10 v. Bucks | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach Friday NBA 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Pistons, though their playoff hopes are slim, certainly aren't going to quit on the season as long as they still have a mathematical shot at the post-season. That said, last night's win (albeit a non-cover) was a big one for Detroit and they aren't going to slow down tonight. Couple that with the fact that this line has been consistently moving up since it first came out (we're now getting double digits with the Pistons) and you have a great value spot for a big dog play. Detroit has lost their last two games against the Bucks by a combined 38 points so revenge is on order here. Even though this is a 4th game in 5 nights situation for the Pistons they can worry about rest later. They have 4 days off coming up after tonight's game and they know this game is basically their season when it comes to playoff chances. That said, this can't be looked at as a "normal" 4 games in 5 nights situation. When teams playoff hopes are on the line this isn't treated in the same way as a "4th in 5" situation played in December or January, as an example. Also, as hot as the Bucks have been they've not made a good home favorite when in this price range. In fact, Milwaukee is 1-8 ATS their last 9 home games where they are favored by more than 4 points. Look for the Bucks to drop to 5-12 ATS in Friday games this season as the division rival Pistons come into this game with their season on line and knowing they don't play again until Wednesday. It's now or never for the hungry road dog in this one. 10* DETROIT |
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03-30-17 | Georgia Tech +3.5 v. TCU | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 8 ET - Impressive win for TCU over Central Florida Tuesday. However, prior to that game, the Horned Frogs had allowed opponents to shoot 49% or better from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. By comparison, Georgia Tech's win over Cal State Bakersfield was the 5th straight game (and 10th out of last 13) where the Yellow Jackets have held their opponent under 39.8% from the field. A hard-working hustling team that plays solid defense and is also getting a handful of points in this match-up is absolutely the play here. Georgia Tech is on a 14-3 ATS run in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Yellow Jackets are now 11-4 ATS in March games the past 3 seasons combined. Very well coached and the players have bought into the system at Georgia Tech and their performance on the court has proven that. The Horned Frogs are on a 7-12 ATS run in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record this season and TCU's defense is simply not on par with that of the Yellow Jackets and that will prove to be a big difference maker in this match-up. 10* GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS |
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03-30-17 | Nets v. Pistons -6 | Top | 89-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Pistons are on a losing streak but most of those defeats came on enemy hardwood. Detroit did lose their most recent home game but only by a single point to Miami and this is a Pistons team that is still 23-15 in home game this season. Thursday they host Brooklyn and the Nets are an ugly 6-30 on the road this season. We're getting line value here because of Detroit's recent losing streak and the fact that the Nets have played a little better of late. Even with Brooklyn having won 3 of their last 5 games should a team that has won only 16.7% of its road games this season really be only a +6 in this spot. This line was as high as a +7 in some spots yesterday but has come down as of very early Thursday morning and this has led to great line value with the hungry Pistons on their home floor. Detroit has been given a little extra life in terms of their playoff hopes because Indiana has lost two straight games. In other words, the Pistons certainly aren't going to stop fighting at this point and I look for them to get back on track at home in a big way Thursday after the tough one point loss to the Heat Tuesday. Detroit also plays this game with double revenge as they lost both games with the Nets this season but both of those games were in Brooklyn. The home team has now taken 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and I expect more of the same here. The average margin of victory in the Pistons victories the last two times they've hosted the Nets was 14 points and I expect a similar result here which is why this play is getting my Top Play rating. Brooklyn is 8-13 ATS when off of an upset loss as a favorite and they just got upset by the 76'ers Tuesday. The Pistons are 8-3 ATS this season when they are on a SU losing streak of 3 games or more and I look for them to "stop the bleeding" in a big way Thursday night. 10* DETROIT PISTONS |
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03-29-17 | Hornets +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Hornets are off of a tough home loss to Milwaukee as the Bucks simply shot lights out including hitting a ridiculous percentage of their threes. Charlotte played a clean game with only 4 team turnovers and the Hornets allowed just 2 fast break points. But its hard to win when a team hits 14 of 30 three pointers plus hits 73% from inside the arc. Needless to say everything was falling the Bucks way last night and Charlotte is a little under-valued tonight as a result. The Hornets are trying to stay alive in the playoff race and had won 4 of 5 before last night's disappointing results. Though the Raptors have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams, 3 of the 4 wins came by a margin of 6 points or less. Toronto has allowed 48% shooting from the field in their last 4 home games while the Hornets have allowed 45.5% or less in 3 of their last 4 road games. Over the past 5 weeks Charlotte has gone 6-2 ATS when off of a loss and, coming off of an ATS loss last night, note that only 2 times this entire season have the Hornets failed to cover both games of a back to back situation. Look for the road team to prove to be the hungrier team as Raptors 6 straight wins will have them looking right past the Hornets here. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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03-27-17 | Cavs +5 v. Spurs | Top | 74-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
TNT Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8 ET - The Cavaliers seek revenge for a home loss to the Spurs two months ago. Cleveland comes into this game off of a home loss to Washington. That is significant because the regular season is almost over and yet there have been only 4 times this entire season that the Cavaliers have had a losing streak of 2 games or more. In other words, look for the Cavs to respond here. Cleveland was off yesterday and they have two days off after tonight's game so you can bet that LeBron James and company are going to go 'all out' in terms of the effort for tonight's revenge game. Though the Spurs certainly won't overlook the Cavs, San Antonio does have big games against Western Conference foes Golden State, Oklahoma City, Utah and Memphis on deck. The Warriors are up next on Wednesday and the Spurs are still hopeful of catching them for the #1 seeding in the West so that is a huge game. San Antonio has been hot but, keep in mind, they are only 11-18 ATS this season when they enter a match-up on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Cavs are 8-3 SU this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. The Cavaliers are also 61-31 SU the last 3 seasons combined when they are playing with revenge. I won't be surprised if they get the upset win on the road here and they are 37-18 SU when off of an upset loss as a favorite. That said, after the loss to the Wizards, look for the Cavs to bounce back here. Grab the points for the added "insurance" as I don't see the Spurs winning this by more than one possession if they even win it all! 10* CLEVELAND |
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03-26-17 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 115-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:05 ET - Some teams handle playoff pressure well and others handle it poorly. This season, the Nuggets certainly fall into the first category! Denver has won 6 of its last 8 games as they look to secure a post-season berth in the West and the Nuggets have also been a covering machine as they are on a 11-4 ATS run their last 15 games. Look for Denver to take advantage here of facing a Pelicans team that is in a tough scheduling spot. While the Nuggets are fully focused on this game as it is their only home game between March 22nd and April 7th, New Orleans is in a much different situation here. The Pelicans are off of a divisional loss (at Houston) Friday and they have a game at Utah tomorrow night. So New Orleans is in the midst of a 3 games in 4 night stretch and tonight's game and tomorrow's game are both played in high altitude. In other words, rather than gasping for air tonight as the game goes on, if the Pelicans are down big the smarter thing to do is to conserve energy and save it for tomorrow night's game at Utah. I just don't see the Pelicans staying within the rather small number here given the situation. Keep in mind, New Orleans is going to have to "run and gun" to keep up with the Nuggets here and the Pelicans are 2-6 SU their last 8 road games with a posted total of 220 points or more while Denver is 11-6 SU (and ATS) in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Pelicans have lost 4 of their last 6 road games and are also 5-9 SU (and ATS) when off of a divisional game this season. The Nuggets are on an 11-4 ATS run in games against teams with a losing record and will take advantage of facing a Pelicans team that has gone just 11-24 SU on the road this season. 10* DENVER |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida -3.5 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks - These teams split their two regular season meetings but the game that the Gamecocks won at home saw the Gators go 0 for 17 from three point land. Of course that is not going to happen again here and South Carolina only won that game by 4 points despite that ridiculous result from beyond the arc for Florida. The Gators got revenge with a home win by 15 points and I like Florida's chances of another big win here. The Gamecocks are here because they faced a "no defense, no rebounding" Marquette team early on in the tourney and then, later on, a Baylor team that was known for choking in big games this season. Certainly South Carolina still deserves credit for being here and for knocking off Duke. However, any team can occasionally really rise up for one big game and get the big upset win. It happens. What I see in the Gamecocks though is a team that had lost 6 of 9 games and gone 1-9 ATS in its 10 games prior to the Big Dance. What I see in the Gators is a strong, consistent team that played a tougher schedule than South Carolina this season and that has won 13 of its last 16 games and covered 11 of those 16 games! The Gamecocks are 23-36 ATS against SEC foes the last 3 seasons combined and, though they have road loss revenge here, they are 0-2 ATS in that situation this season. The Gators have struggled in the underdog role this season but they are 19-8 ATS as a favorite this season and they get the job done again on Sunday! 10* FLORIDA |
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03-25-17 | Oregon +7.5 v. Kansas | Top | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks (+) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 8:45 ET - Everyone is likely to be lining up on Kansas here and you know what that means. In typical contrarian style I'll grab the generous points with Oregon here. Riding the momentum of a tight hard-fought win over one of the hottest teams in the country (Michigan), look for the Ducks to give the Jayhawks all they can handle here. Oregon is not only 32-5 on the season, 3 of the Ducks last 4 losses have come by 4 points or less. This team just doesn't get blown out. While I certainly do respect Kansas, they got an easy draw with Cal Davis in the opening round. Then, their win over Michigan State looks great on paper (20 point margin) but that game was much closer than that throughout the first half and all the way through about the mid-point of the 2nd half before the Jayhawks pulled away. Keep in mind too, that wasn't a "typical" Spartans team either as it was definitely a down year for Michigan State basketball. Now, after a blowout win over Purdue, the fact that Kansas truly hasn't been tested for a full 40 minutes in the tourney could actually hurt them here. What is going to happen when the shots aren't falling so easily for the Jayhawks? Keep in mind they've shot 53% or better from the field (and 40% or better from three point land) in all 3 games of the Big Dance. The last time the Jayhawks had a more "normal" shooting performance they lost to TCU in the Big 12 tourney. Look for Kansas to "come back down to earth" in this one as their other-worldly shooting comes to an end against a solid defensive team. I know the Ducks defense is not the same without Chris Boucher but they've done an admirable job in this tourney and will certainly be fired up and dialed in for an opportunity against a #1 seed. While Kansas could get caught peeking ahead to what they feel would be a showdown with another #1 seed (Gonzaga) unless an upset occurs prior to this game, the fact is that the Jayhawks may underestimate just how strong this Oregon team is. The Ducks are 11-3 ATS this season (and 25-12 ATS the L3 seasons combined) in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The Jayhawks are 5-8 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Too many points here in my opinion and the dog will be a "tough out" for Kansas! 10* OREGON |
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03-25-17 | Raptors +1 v. Mavs | Top | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8:35 ET - Even though this is a revenge spot for the Mavericks (lost ugly at Toronto two weeks ago), the Raptors simply are too dominant on the glass for the Mavs. In the last two meetings Dallas has been outrebounded by a combined 42 boards. Also, Toronto comes into this game having won 4 straight games and they've outrebounded their opponents by a combined 56 rebounds in their last 3 games. The Mavericks are off of a win but they failed to cover 5 of their 7 prior games and they've been outrebounded by 85 caroms in their last 6 games. Look for the rebounding edge to again be a key here as the Raptors dominate the boards. Toronto has been shooting the ball better than Dallas of late as the Mavericks seem to be wilting under the playoff pressure quite often while the Raptors (truly quite secure in their playoff position) are playing relaxed and confident and shooting the ball quite well again as they've rebounded from a recent slump. Toronto is 5-2 SU and ATS this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Raptors are also 14-7 ATS (and 15-6 SU) when off of a game where they won by a double digit margin. As for the Mavericks, they are 3-6 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. Also, the Mavs are only 11-19 SU against teams with a winning record this season. 10* TORONTO |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Friday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats (+) vs UCLA Bruins @ 9:35 ET - Kentucky has lost back to back games to UCLA - December of 2016 and December of 2015 - and this is even though the Wildcats took 14 more shots from the field in this season's match-up and 13 more shots from the field in last season's match-up. What happened? The Bruins simply shot "lights out" in each game. I don't expect a repeat of that here. The Cats have really dialed things up a notch on defense as the season has gone on and they've held 8 of their last 11 opponents under 41.9% from the field. While both teams have improved since they met in early December this season, the young Wildcats really needed the extra time to mature and that will pay huge dividends in this rematch. Also, unlike Kentucky, UCLA hasn't exactly been "dialed in" on defense. Conversely, the Bruins have allowed at least 43.7% from the field in 3 straight games and UCLA also has not been defending the 3-ball nearly as well as Kentucky has. The Bruins have allowed an average of 78 points per game in their last 3 games. The Wildcats haven't allowed 78 points in game in ANY of their last 12 games. Kentucky has, in fact, allowed 67 points or less in 9 of its last 12 games. UCLA has all the glitzy offensive stats so they are a popular choice but defense wins games like this at this point in the season and the Wildcats have truly come along way and definitely defend the perimeter much better than the Bruins do. UCLA is 11-8 SU in tournament games the past 3 seasons but UK is 17-2 SU in this same stretch and the Wildcats have greatly matured as this season has gone on. This is a double revenge spot for the Cats and I don't see them being denied. Lets not forget they obliterated the Bruins 83-44 three years ago and, after suffering tight losses in each of the last two meetings, though this won't be that type of blowout I do see the Wildcats winning this one large as they get their revenge when it counts the most! 10* KENTUCKY |
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03-24-17 | Nuggets +2 v. Pacers | Top | 125-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - Both teams dealing with playoff pressure right now as they work hard to secure a post-season berth. However, the Nuggets are dealing with the pressure much better than the Pacers and that's why you shouldn't be "fooled" by the interesting line that was posted on this game. Considering Denver is only 13-20 SU in road games this season and Indiana is 25-10 SU in home games this season, why would the Pacers have opened up at very close to the "pick'em range" in this game? Of course it is with good reason but many will feel the odds makers made a mistake here or simply "giving this one away" for the Pacers. It just doesn't work that way folks and I actually like to look for games like this for the sole intention of playing the other side. Here are the "real" keys for this one. Indiana is on a long-term 7-13 (35%) straight-up run their last 20 games. The Nuggets are 8-4 SU (and 9-3 ATS!) in their last 12 games. This is a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions but the betting markets, as usual, are likely to be slow to adjust. That is when you can find significant value which is what I believe we have here. The Pacers have been held under 44.7% from the field in 6 of their last 7 games. The hot-shooting Nuggets have knocked down over 48.7% from the field in 9 of their last 12 games! Denver is also on a 4-0 ATS run against the Pacers and a long-term 19-8 ATS run against Central Division opponents. Even though the Nuggets full season numbers are not impressive (in terms of defense), note that Indiana is 8-17 ATS (32%) in their games this season against teams that are allowing 106 points or more per game! The Pacers offense simply won't be able to keep up with the hot shooting Nuggets in this one. 10* DENVER |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia v. Gonzaga -3 | Top | 58-61 | Push | 0 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
TBS Early Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Gonzaga Bulldogs (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7:35 ET - In their first game of the tourney Gonzaga simply underestimated South Dakota State (who could blame them?) and they ended up having a poor first half. The Bulldogs responded by blowing out the Jackrabbits by 16 in the 2nd half. That momentum carried right into the game against Northwestern where Gonzaga blew out the Wildcats by 18 points but then, with big lead in hand, really let up in the 2nd half and failed to cover again as a big favorite. Now, certainly West Virginia is better than both of these teams, but for Gonzaga to be laying only 3 here definitely relates to them coming off of back to back non-covers. Now we can get a 34-1 team that basically needs to just win the game to get the cover and, keep in mind, this is a Bulldogs team that outscored its opponent by a combined 34 points over 40 minutes between the 2nd half of their first game and the first half of their second game in this tourney. Look for Gonzaga to put it all together as they will be fully focused and they know they were in for a war with the Mountaineers. The Bulldogs defense will be ready to play a full forty in this one and West Virginia allowed Iowa State to shoot 54% in the Big 12 championship game and then followed that by allowing Bucknell (yes, Bucknell!) to score 80 in the first round of the Big Dance. Had the Mountaineers not shot "lights out" against Notre Dame they wouldn't even be here for this game. Of course West Virginia has played the tougher schedule than Gonzaga on the season but the Bulldogs have the strength of a winning mindset that has been built by a 34-1 season and by being very well coached under Mark Few. The Mountaineers were on a 1-6 ATS run before the win and cover over the Fighting Irish and I feel West Virginia is again being over-valued here. The Bulldogs defense has allowed 41.3% or less in 19 of its last 20 games. The Mountaineers defense had allowed 43.5% or more in 6 of their last 9 games before holding Notre Dame to 40.7% from the field on Saturday. Have not been as impressed this season, as I typically am, with a Bob Huggins coached defense and I see them getting knocked out of the tournament tonight. Mountaineers are 4-10 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s this season while the Bulldogs are 14-4 ATS with the same parameters this season. 10* GONZAGA |
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03-23-17 | Raptors +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 101-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - While I successfully played against the Raptors Tuesday because their playoff seeding is highly unlikely to change a great deal, that doesn't mean there are not going to be games that Toronto will be "up for" as the regular season winds down and this is one of those! The Raptors lost at Miami by 15 points a little less than 2 weeks ago and that sets this rematch up perfectly for revenge. Even though the final margin looked ugly it had a lot do with Toronto getting outscored by 27 points from three point land as they had a horrific night shooting the 3-ball. The Raptors did win the battle of the boards in that game and had 16 more field goal attempts than the Heat in that one. Even though Serge Ibaka is likely to miss tonight's game he shot very poorly against Miami two weeks ago and was also not a big factor on the boards. With that said, his absence from tonight's game is unlikely to have the impact that many are expecting. With this line having already moved from a 3 up to a 4.5 excellent line value is being offered with the road dog. The Raptors have a SU record of 24-13 this season (and 86-34 the L3 seasons combined) in their games against teams with a losing record. The Heat are 12-21 SU this season (and 49-74 the L3 seasons combined) in their games against teams with a winning record. Miami also has a big game at Boston on deck while the Raptors have a non-conference foe up next. 10* TORONTO |
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03-22-17 | Hawks +7 v. Wizards | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - Both these teams have been struggling with recent losses but, as a result, that means we are getting extra line value with the revenging team that is on the road and therefore catching inflated points here. The Hawks lost by 26 points versus the Wizards in late January and that game was at Atlanta! Needless to say some home loss revenge is on order here and now they're being given points against a division rival that has covered just TWICE in their last 11 games! Though Atlanta is also in a slump I question whether Washington should really be this big of a favorite against a tough division rival whose road record this season is just as good as their home record (Hawks 2 games over .500 both away from home and at home). The Hawks have some injury issues but not enough to justify the Wizards being priced in the way they are tonight. This is not an uncommon time of year for Washington to be struggling. The Wizards are now 15-26 ATS in March games the past 3 seasons combined. The Hawks are 25-16 ATS the L3 seasons combined when they are playing with home loss revenge. Also, Atlanta is off of a loss at Charlotte and the Hawks are 9-4 ATS (and 10-3 SU!) this season when they are off of a divisional game. 10* ATLANTA HAWKS Wednesday evening |
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03-21-17 | Georgia Tech +5.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 9 ET - This line opened up at a -4.5 for Ole Miss and the Rebels have quickly moved up to being a -5.5 point favorite. The line on this one may look a little "funny" considering that Ole Miss has covered 5 straight games and the Rebels straight-up records at home are 13-5 this season and 34-14 the last 3 seasons combined. Georgia Tech has awful straight-up records on the road of 2-10 this season and 9-27 the last 3 seasons combined. That said, how could Ole Miss be such a short favorite here? As long-time followers would expect I am on the contrarian side here and grabbing the Yellow Jackets but certainly it is a selection that is not without strong merit! Georgia Tech is on a 12-3 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Also, the Jackets are on an 8-2 ATS run against teams that average 80 points or more per game. Georgia Tech comes into this game on an 8-2 ATS run overall and, looking at their last 11 games, defense has certainly played a key role. The Yellow Jackets have held 8 of their last 11 opponents under 39% from the field! As for the Rebels, they are off of a big upset win at Syracuse but allowed 80 points and are allowing an average of 78 points per game over their last 13 games. By comparison, Georgia Tech has allowed 65 points or less in 8 of their last 11 games. Look for the Yellow Jackets to drop the Rebels to 16-22 SU when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more but I am grabbing all the points I can get in this one should the Jackets fall just short of the outright upset. 10* Top Play GEORGIA TECH Tuesday night |
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03-19-17 | Cincinnati +4 v. UCLA | Top | 67-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (+) vs UCLA Bruins @ 9:40 ET - The Bearcats are allowing just 61 points per game on the season. That tough defense coupled with the resolve of a team not happy about again having to go west for tourney time (despite a fantastic season) makes Cincinnati a very tough team to face in this spot. UCLA will have its hands full with a team that is 23-3 in its last 26 games. The Bearcats have allowed just 38.5% shooting on the season. The Bruins have played a tougher schedule this season (but not by a big margin) and UCLA has allowed at least 43.7% from the field in 3 of their last 6 games. Their D may not be ready for the grudge match that Cincy can turn this game into because the Bruins certainly did not impress in their win over Kent State. Had they not shot the ball ridiculously well, UCLA likely would not have pulled away from the Golden Flashes the way they did. Of course Cincy will present a much more difficult challenge and the Bearcats were fantastic (against a much more formidable foe than Kent State) when they won huge Friday over Kansas State. That was a quality Wildcats team that Cincinnati knocked off and coach Mick Cronin is doing a fantastic job with this team. The Bruins are a little banged up and that has this one set up perfectly for an upset. The Bearcats are a long-term 7-3 ATS as a neutral court dog in a range of a 3.5 to 6 points and all 7 of those wins were OUTRIGHT victories. Could this be another upset? I am grabbing all the points I can get my hands on but an outright win for Cincy is the expectation. In terms of the cover if the Cats fall short, note that UCLA is only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Bruins are 3-7 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s this season and UCLA is 3-8 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Look for the Bruins to drop to 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games. 10* CINCINNATI |
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03-17-17 | Rhode Island v. Creighton +1.5 | Top | 84-72 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Friday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) vs Rhode Island Rams @ 4:30 ET - Creighton has gone from being a 2 point fave here to a 1.5 point dog as of early gameday morning. Of course the Blue Jays are not the same team without Mo Watson BUT the key is that they've had plenty of time to adjust to life without their point guard and they've actually started to gel without their floor leader. They made it all the way to the Big East Championship before losing to Villanova, the defending champs. Getting wins over Providence and Xavier to earn the right to play the Wildcats was big for the confidence of this Bluejays team heading into the Big Dance. Creighton has played a tougher schedule than has Rhode Island but the betting markets are basically saying the committee was wrong in making the Bluejays a 6 seed and the Rams an 11 see and that the odds makers were wrong in making Creighton the favorite in this match-up. As long-time followers know, I'd rather side against the public and this Rhode Island team may have already used up its good fortune in winning the A-10 championship. They certainly caught a break with Dayton getting knocked out of that tourney and they beat VCU for the championship as Virginia Commonwealth simply had a horrific shooting performance and still only lost the game by 7 points. I am not sold on Rhode Island being at quite the same level as Creighton based on level of competition faced and I look for the Rams to drop to 0-4 SU and ATS in their last 4 against Big East teams. Look for the Bluejays 7-footer to also enjoy success against a smaller RI frontcourt. By the way, the Blue Jays are 13-0 SU in non-conference action this season. I expect that record to go to 14-0 here as Rhode Island used up their "mojo" in winning the A-10 Tourney. 10* CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS |
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03-15-17 | USC v. Providence +2.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
First Four Best Bet - Rickenbach CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Providence Friars (+) vs USC Trojans @ 9:10 ET - This line opened up at a pick'em and has moved to USC -3 and, of course, much of this has to do with revenge as the Trojans lost to the Friars in the Big Dance last year. Of course revenge is important in handicapping but sometimes it has a tendency to be overplayed and this results in value on the other side. That is precisely the case here. This isn't a "normal" in-season revenge situation. This is a "win or go home" game and just because the Trojans have motivation to avenge last year's loss it does not mean the Friars aren't also motivated. They want to advance! Providence has unfinished business from last year's Big Dance and they are ready to roll in this tourney. Keep in mind, 7 of the 10 Big East teams made the tournament and the reality is that the Friars played just as tough of a schedule as USC did this season. Also, even though Providence won by just a single point in last year's tourney meeting with the Trojans, they actually took 10 more shots from the field and 11 more shots from the free throw line. The point is that the Friars would have won much more easily had they shot better than 40% and had USC not shot a ridiculous 54% from the field and 46% from three point land. The Trojans are only 3-6 ATS (and 2-7 SU!) in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. This is in stark contrast to a Friars team that is a solid 13-9 SU (and stellar 17-5 ATS!) in their games against teams with a winning record. This is a classic case where revenge has been over-played and resulted in value on the other side. I'll take it! Grab all the points you can get but the Friars do have a great shot at the outright "upset" here. 10* PROVIDENCE |
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03-14-17 | Kansas State +1 v. Wake Forest | Top | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
First Four Best Bet - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (+) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 9:10 ET - No disrespect intended to the Demon Deacons Danny Manning but, in my opinion, the Wildcats (with Bruce Weber at the helm) have a significant coaching edge in this match-up. Weber will be coaching in his 3rd Big Dance in 5 seasons with Kansas State. They're taking on a Wake Forest team that is a combined 43-51 (and only 16-38 in ACC) since Manning took over as the head coach. The Demon Deacons allowed at least 47.5% from the field in 5 of their last 7 games and, keep in mind, this was all during a crucial stretch for Wake Forest as they were trying to get to 20 wins. They know they were somewhat fortunate to even make the Big Dance as they finished with 19 wins. The point about the above though is that they needed strong D and it just wasn't there that often down the stretch. That doesn't bode well for their chances here as they now take on a Kansas State team that allowed only 54.3 points per game over their last 3 games as they really turned up the heat on defense. The Wildcats won 3 of their last 4 games (and went 4-0 ATS) with the lone SU loss coming by just a single point versus West Virginia. Wake Forest also finished the season on a hot run thanks to some strong shooting but they've been off since Wednesday and that very well could have cooled their hot shooting touch. Not only that but if the Wildcats continue to play defense like they have been, the Demon Deacons will really struggle to regain any type of offensive flow in this one. 10* KANSAS STATE |
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03-12-17 | Heat +5 v. Pacers | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Game #873 Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 6:05 ET - The Pacers are a popular choice today and that's understandable based on the situation involving Miami. On the surface, Indiana looks like the play. But when you look further into this situation, the Heat won so easily versus Toronto yesterday that key players were able to get significant rest and did not have to log big minutes. Also, Miami had two days off prior to that win over the Raptors. The Heat also have the added benefit of having two days off after this game. In other words, the situation is not nearly as bad as a "normal" back to back and, by the way, Miami has gone 10-2 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the Heat come into this one having won and covered 4 straight games and, of course, Miami has been one of the hottest teams in the league now for quite some time. They're taking on an Indiana team they've beaten 4 straight times and one of their two losses against the Pacers that preceded that run came by just three points. Also, Indiana comes into this game having lost 10 of their last 14 games. The Pacers are off of a loss to the division rival Bucks and are only 5-8 ATS when off of a divisional game this season. The Heat are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last 8 games played against teams with a winning record and they'll stay red hot here. 10* Top Play MIAMI |
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03-11-17 | Iowa State v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 80-74 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #750 Saturday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 6 ET - The Mountaineers barely got by Kansas State yesterday in an ugly game. Now they have an opportunity today to do what they've not yet done and that is earn a Big 12 Title. West Virginia last won a conference title back in 2010 when they were in the Big East. Look for the Mountaineers to make the most of this opportunity and a key edge here is that we are getting extra line value based on yesterday's results. The tight West Virginia win coupled with Iowa State's blowout win over an out-classed TCU team has definitely impacted the betting markets for this game. The fact is that the Mountaineers present a match-up issue for the Cyclones and they have won and covered 4 straight in this series. West Virginia has dominated the boards in recent meetings and they certainly have the edge on defense and on the glass when you compare these teams. The Mountaineers are off of back to back non-covering wins and only once this entire season have they failed to cover in 3 straight games. The Cyclones have been on a strong ATS run and that has forced the odds makers to adjust the number here as Iowa State will get a lot of public support here. The result is exceptional line value for a Mountaineers team hungry for their first-ever Big 12 title. West Virginia is 13-4 SU when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games the past 3 seasons combined as their style is conducive to success as their pressure defense wears down teams in short rest situations. The Mountaineers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. Again, their defense being the key in that regard and I look for Iowa State to drop to 0-5 SU and ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Mountaineers as the match-up troubles haven't gone away! 10* WEST VIRGINIA |
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03-11-17 | Knicks v. Pistons -6.5 | Top | 92-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
Early ATS Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #706 Saturday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (-) vs New York Knicks @ 5:05 ET - This looks like a typical spot where one would want to fade Detroit. They are off of a big win versus the defending NBA Champs and it is a trip to Cleveland that is on deck for the Pistons so they are truly in a division rival sandwich her involving the Cavaliers. However, one should not overlook the fact that the Pistons are currently fighting for their playoff lives so truly I just see no way possible that Detroit is going to overlook the Knicks here. That is especially true when they know it will be very tough to win at Cleveland Tuesday. Also, the fact that the Pistons have two days off after this means they can certainly put all energy and focus and attention into this game. The Knicks are having another "train wreck" season and, besides the enticement of fading a bad team here, it is certainly also worth noting that the home team has won each of the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Also, the Knicks are on a surprising 3-7 ATS run against teams with a losing record. The Pistons are hungry to get back to .500 and continue to make strides toward a playoff berth. 10* DETROIT |
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03-11-17 | UCF +8.5 v. SMU | Top | 59-70 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Afternoon ATS Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #741 Saturday 10* Top Play Central Florida Golden Knights (+) vs Southern Methodist Mustangs @ 3 ET - SMU has had a fantastic season but, not only has won an amazing 24 of 25 games, the Mustangs also were 20-5 ATS this season before falling short in yesterday's non-covering win. Southern Methodist blew a huge lead in that game and, even though they hung on for the win, the self-doubt will be in the back of their minds here as they now take on a team fully capable of upsetting them. That said, I'll gladly grab the big points here. The Golden Knights nearly upset the Mustangs in a 5-point home loss in their regular season meeting and they are strong inside including big man 7'6 300 pound Tacko Fall. The fact he was able to play just limited minutes in yesterday's huge win for the Knights means fresh legs here for him in this big game with SMU. The Golden Knights shot the ball very well yesterday but their defense and rebounding is a key to their success. That will also be a key to keeping this game much closer than many are expecting. The Mustangs incredible ATS record is helping to inflate their line for a game like this and I'll take advantage on the other side. UCF, after yesterday's blowout win, is a perfect 6-0 ATS in tournament games the past 3 seasons combined. SMU is now a long-term 6-15 ATS in conference tournament games after losing the killer instinct in yesterday's game. It will be hard for the Mustangs to get that killer instinct back against a Golden Knights team that could very easily grind out an upset win here. That said, give me the big points in this one! 10* CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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03-10-17 | Alabama +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 64-53 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #555 Friday 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide (+) vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 3:30 ET - Alabama is coming off of a blowout win versus Mississippi State yesterday and is playing very well on both ends of the floor. Of course the Crimson Tide have been known for their defensive play in SEC action under coach Avery Johnson this season and that allows them to "grind it out" and win a game like this against the Gamecocks. Alabama already won at South Carolina in an epic 4-OT battle earlier this season and the Crimson Tide are now playing even more competitively than they were then. Bama has covered 4 of their last 6 games and they held Mississippi State to 39% from the field yesterday and this was after holding each of their three prior opponents to shooting percentages of 32% or less! The Gamecocks have lost 4 of their last 6 games and have failed to cover 8 of their last 9 games. Even though they play solid defense, South Carolina struggles on the offensive end and that could spell trouble against a Bama team that is getting more and more confident on the offensive end with strong performances in recent games. The Tide catch the Gamecocks in a spot where too much rest could actually be a factor and cause some rust. South Carolina is 0-2 ATS the past 3 seasons and 12-24 ATS long-term when they enter a game having been off for 5 or 6 days prior. That is a long-time to not play and stay sharp and it could be an issue here with a team that is already known for it's struggles shooting the ball. Look for the Crimson Tide to improve to 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with South Carolina. 10* ALABAMA |
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03-09-17 | Clippers +2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - Memphis is seeking revenge for a loss at LA in early January. However, each of the two prior meetings were taken by the road team and there is actually plenty of reason to expect the "road edge" to return here. The fact is that the Grizzlies are struggling as they are currently on a 3-6 run (both SU and ATS). Also, even though the Clippers are in a back to back here and Memphis is playing with rest, the Grizzlies are a surprising 1-7 (SU and ATS) when they enter a game with 2 days of rest between games. Additionally, the fact that the Clips lost by 16 at Minnesota last night will have them fired up here. The Clippers were on a modest 7-4 winning run prior to the loss to the Timberwolves. Also, when playing the 2nd game of a back to back, the Clips are actually 34-19 SU the past 3 seasons combined. In 2017, when off of a loss where the Clippers have been held to less than 100 points (as they were last night at Minny), they have won their next game all 4 times. I look for that SU mark to improve to 5-0 here and that means the added points we are getting here should prove to just be a bonus. 10* LA CLIPPERS |
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03-09-17 | Tulane +5.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 60-66 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Situational Shocker - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Thursday 10* Top Play Tulane Green Wave (+) vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 6 ET - If you operate under the theory that the sports books make huge mistakes and give away money it doesn't take long to get crushed in this business. That said, there are certainly no "sure things" in this industry but, at the same time, when something looks too good to be true I will definitely look to fade it. That is certainly the case here when you look at the American Athletic Conference Tourney action for Thursday. UConn (added benefit of home edge and 9-9 in AAC this season) is favored by 14 over SFla (1-9 in AAC this season). Makes sense based on records and home court. Temple, slightly better than East Carolina, is a small favorite of about 5 points. Another one that makes sense looking at records. Then, you have this game where Tulsa (seeking 'right back' revenge for a home loss just days ago), was only a -4.5 point favorite when lines came out yesterday even though Tulane was 2-15 in AAC action and had only 5 wins on the entire season before the Green Wave upset the Golden Hurricane Sunday. Keep in mind Tulsa is nearly a .500 team on the season and Tulane is regarded as one of the worst teams in CBB. So, did the sports books decide to give away money here with Tulsa? Why are they favored in the same price range as Temple even though they're facing the cellar dweller of the AAC and also playing with home loss revenge? I'll gladly play my often-used role of contrarian in this match-up as I look for an upset. Keep in mind, Tulsa really faded down the stretch with 8 losses in 10 games and I would not be surprised to see them still come out flat here because they simply "don't have it" this season. Frustrating season for them after starting 12-8 before the poor ending. The only Golden Hurricane wins since January came against East Carolina and South Florida (two of the worst teams in the AAC). That doesn't give Tulsa a big boost of confidence here considering they're facing a team that has proven it has some match-up edges over them. Over their last 9 games combined Tulsa is allowing a very high shooting percentage as their defense has seemingly quit as the season has gone one and become very disappointing. As for the Green Wave, they are rejuvenated after the win over Tulsa Sunday and will come in relaxed and confident as nothing is expected of them and that often makes for the most dangerous of underdogs! The Green Wave are 5-3 ATS this season against teams with a losing record while the Golden Hurricane are on a horrific 1-10 ATS run in March games. Fade the masses in this one! 10* TULANE |
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03-05-17 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -7 | Top | 49-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #836 Sunday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 6 ET - This is another classic contrarian situation for me. In a game that certainly means a lot to both teams, many will be grabbing what appears to be generous points with the team that certainly has been the hotter team. Minnesota has won 8 straight games and has gone 7-1 ATS during this red hot run and yet the Golden Gophers are as much as a 7.5 point dog in this one as of early gameday morning? This is even though the Badgers have lost 5 of their last 6 and are on a 1-7 ATS run! It is 'head-scratchers' like these that tend to most bettors up and I fully believe the sharp money here will prove to be on the Badgers. Already we're seeing some early line movement toward Wiscy even though most of the bets are coming in on Minny. Of course that tells you where the big money is flowing and I like the fact this game means a ton for Wisconsin in addition to being Senior Day in their regular season finale. The Gophers haven't won here in Madison in nearly a decade and I don't see that changing today. As far as the Badgers covering the spread here, they actually led Iowa by 9 very late in their most recent game before an unusual late-game implosion led to them losing outright to the Hawkeyes. Prior to this defeat, Wiscy was 14-1 at home this season and they'll be ready to get back on track Sunday evening. The Badgers are allowing just 56 points per game at home this season. The Golden Gophers, by comparison, have allowed 71 points or more in 9 of their last 11 games! Even with their win and cover versus Nebraska Thursday, Minnesota is still just 2-6 SU and ATS in their last 8 March games. By comparison, the Badgers had won 13 of their last 16 March games before the ridiculous loss to the Hawkeyes. Look for a huge response from the home team here as the Badgers add to a perfect 6-0 mark (SU) and 5-1 ATS record this season in home games with a posted total in the 130 to 134.5 point range. 10* WISCONSIN BADGERS minus the points Sunday evening. |
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03-04-17 | San Francisco v. Santa Clara +1.5 | Top | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
March Madness - Rickenbach CBB Game #664 Saturday 10* Top Play Santa Clara Broncos (+) vs San Francisco Dons @ 6:30 ET - At first glance this line looks a little off. The Dons have 20 wins on the seasons and the Broncos are only a game over .500 on the season! However, the reason the line is so low (and likely to encourage "action" on San Francisco here) is because both these teams are 10-8 in their conference games this season. The "tipping point" for me in terms of backing the Broncos in this match-up is more than just the 3 point loss at San Francisco last month resulting in a "revenge factor" here. The fact is that the Broncos have been very hot with their shooting touch of late while the Dons have truly been ice cold in many of their recent games. Couple that with the fact that this game is played at a neutral site (Orleans Arena in Las Vegas) and you have the makings of a strong edge toward the Broncos here. Retaining shooting touch is tough for teams to do when away from home and that will exasperate an already tenuous situation for San Francisco in this one. The Dons shot a more "reasonable" 43% from the field in their final regular season game but that was against league-worst Pepperdine. In their previous 4 games, San Francisco was held between 24.7% and 37.5% from the field in all 4 games. The Don't haven't truly shot the ball well in the past 4 weeks as their last hot shooting game was all the way back on February 4th. As for the Broncos, they have shot between 46.5% and 63.9% in 4 of their last 5 games. Santa Clara had won 3 of its last 4 games before running into St Mary's (one of the top teams in the conference) and I look for them to get rolling again after that loss to the Gaels. The Broncos won the first match-up between these teams by 14 points this season. Then, despite being down by 20 points at half-time at San Francisco, the Broncos came all the way back in the eventual 3-point loss to the Dons. It is evident they match up well with SF. More of the same here. 10* SANTA CLARA |
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03-04-17 | Massachusetts v. St Bonaventure -8 | Top | 56-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Atlantic 10 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #572 Saturday 10* Top Play St Bonaventure Bonnies (-) vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 4 ET - Seeding can play an important role in how far a team can go in the A-10 Tourney. With that said, the Bonnies are fully focused on not only getting a big W on Senior Day but also locking up the #5 seed for the upcoming tournament. They can accomplish both objectives Saturday and they're facing the right team to get a blowout win. Massachusetts is 4-13 ATS in conference action this season. Also, the past 3 seasons combined, UMass has gone 1-7 ATS in March games. The Minutemen defense has particularly struggled over the last 8 games. During this stretch, Massachusetts has given up 80 points per game and their 6 losses during this 2-6 stretch have come by an average margin of 13 points per defeat. Only 1 of the 6 losses was by less than 8 points. The Bonnies are off of a loss coming into this one and that carries a lot of significance in terms of this play because St Bonaventure has not lost back to back games since mid-November! The Bonnies are 9-0 SU the last 9 times they've been off of a loss. In terms of covering the spread, it is noteworthy that St Bonaventure is 7-2 ATS in those 9 games and the only 2 ATS losses were both wins by double digit SU margins! In other words, the Bonnies would have covered a single digit spread in each case! After opening up at a 10 yesterday this line has moved down to an 8 and this has led to even more value here with St Bonaventure. Look for the Bonnies to improve to 7-2 ATS their last 9 games played in March. 10* ST BONAVENTURE |
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03-03-17 | Iowa State v. West Virginia -7 | Top | 76-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #762 Friday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 7 ET - Many will look to back Iowa State in this spot since the Cyclones have won 6 straight games and are seeking revenge here. However, West Virginia should prove to be the play here. The Mountaineers are off of a loss at Baylor and they shot poorly in both games of that 2-game road swing as they didn't shoot well against the Bears and they weren't much better against the Horned Frogs at TCU. The key here is that West Virginia certainly doesn't want to head into tourney time on a losing streak and they've shown the ability to bounce back all season long. When at home and off of a loss, the Mountaineers have gone 4-0 and won those games by an average margin of 18.5 points per victory. Included in those 4 wins was a 16-point win over Kansas so the teams that West Virginia faced in these situations certainly weren't all cupcakes. Even though Iowa State has been winning, the Cyclones aren't known for their defense and they've allowed 47% from the field in Big 12 action this season. The Mountaineers have held opponents to just 42.6% in home games this season. Also, Iowa State has allowed 45.5% or more from the field in 4 of its last 5 games. West Virginia, before the loss to Baylor, had held 6 of its last 8 opponents to 44.9% or less from the field and 4 of those 6 were held under 39.8% from the field. The Mountaineers are 15-2 SU at home this season. Also, in all games with posted totals in the 150s the Mountaineers are a long-term 28-12 (70%) ATS. Iowa State is only 1-3 ATS and SU the past 3 seasons when playing with home loss revenge and their long-term SU mark in that role is 15-49. Cylones are set up to get rolled in this one as the Mountaineers show why they've earned their nickname of "Press Virginia" with a big win tonight. 10* WEST VIRGINIA |