Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-30-15 | Celtics +5 v. Heat | Top | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): I like to make the case that NBA teams playing the second of back to back games are often undervalued, especially when out on the road. That's the case here and w/ Boston we're getting a few extra points "thanks" to the fact that they lost yday in Orlando, 110-91. Keep in mind though that when this team wins, it usually does so in blowout fashion as all but one of the Celtics' nine victories this season have been by 13 or more points! (Ironically, the exception came against winless Philadelphia!) While I'm not going so far as to call for an outright victory here, the points do seem generous in a matchup of two teams I have rated as essentially even. Take the points. Points are likely to be at a premium in this one as Miami has gone Under in 13 of its last 14 games. In two of the last three games, they've given up only 78 points, but take note that both of those were against the Knicks. The Heat's own offense has had its issues this season as they come in averaging just 96.3 points per game, so they're hardly a great candidate to be laying points right now. As chalk, they're only 6-6 ATS this season w/ three outright losses. They've shot just 42.6% from the field the L5 games and Boston will be the best offensive foe they've taken on in some time. Over the last eight games, the Heat have played just one opponent ranked in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency and that game was against Sacramento, the lone Over for them since the season opener. There was some surliness and general discontent from Celtics' players (Jae Crowder in particular) following yday's loss to Orlando. Look for this bit of news to drive the line up even further. The key for Boston here is to hold Miami under 100 points as they have yet to win a single game (0-7 SU) when allowing triple digits. That shouldn't be too much a problem here as the Heat come in averaging just 96.3 PPG. Also, the Celtics should see a reasonable improvement in their overall shooting from Sunday, particularly from distance as they were just 5 for 27 versus the Magic. Also, when you talk defense, be sure to take note that the C's force 19.5 turnovers per game, most in the league. 8* Boston |
|||||||
11-29-15 | Texas-Arlington -2.5 v. Rice | Top | 92-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* UT Arlington (6:00 ET): What do the Mavericks have to do to get some respect around here? After beating BOTH Ohio State and Memphis outright, on the road, they destroyed Grambling 73-40 on Wednesday. For those "keeping score at home," that's a 33-point win (no line) after covering the spread by a combined 39 points the previous two games. The opponent here, Rice, is stronger than Grambling (few aren't!), but a definite huge drop in class from Memphis and Ohio State. This isn't the first time I've stepped out against Rice; I did so back on November 16th when they got blown out 80-54 at San Francisco. They've won B2B games after an 0-4 start, but still give up 83.5 PPG and are w/o projected leading scorer Marcus Jackson. Neither upset from UT Arlington was fluky in the least. Against Ohio State, they took the lead for good early in the second half and went up by as many as nine. They were even more impressive at Memphis, jumping out to a double-digit lead at halftime. While they did relinquish the lead momentarily in the 2H, it was impressive that they were able to go up by that much despite shooting just 33.3% for the game. In fact, the Mavericks have been below 38 percent from the field for four straight games. The fact that they have been so successful during that time, while shooting that poorly, is pretty impressive. The key, as you might expect, has been their defense. Neither Memphis nor Grambling has been able to shoot better than 30 percent against them. Rice has not been nearly as stout defensively. In fact, their first four opponents all shot better than 50 percent from the field. The fewest points they've allowed in a game this season is 77 and keep in mind that the Owls have played a schedule far weaker to date than has UT Arlington. Injuries have taken an early season toll as two projected starters were not in the lineup at the start of the season. The most notable was the one to Jackson, a junior that started all but one game last season. UT-Arlington is 19-13 ATS on the road the L3 seasons and giving up almost 20 PPG fewer. 10* UT Arlington |
|||||||
11-29-15 | Boise State v. Arizona -4 | Top | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
10* Arizona (5:00 ET): I realize that the 11th ranked Wildcats are off a loss here (to Providence), but this looks like a very short number for them to lay here against a team they've already beaten this year. Granted, the first meeting vs. Boise State came in Tucson and they may be w/o Kaleb Tarczewski here in Anaheim, but they should still have enough horses to get by the Broncos yet again. They were in position to beat Providence on Friday, but allowed the Friars to go on a 10-2 run to close the game, resulting in a 69-65 final. Because they were playing on B2B days, Tarczewski could not play on an ankle he injured in Thursday's OT win over Santa Clara. Having had Saturday off, there's a greater chance he'll play here, but with or without him, they are the play here. It's a little rare to see two teams play each other twice this early in the campaign, but not unprecedented. While Boise State did cover back on November 19th, it was by just one-half point as 12.5-pt dogs. The linesmakers aren't being nearly as generous here, obviously, on a neutral court. That first meting saw Arizona shoot 54.2 percent from the field, a number they have been unable to match in any of the L3 games. It was a close game for much of the second half, until 'Zona went on a run late. It also helped that BSU only shot 35.7% from the field after halftime. Neither team's leading scorer shot well and I expect the Wildcats' Ryan Anderson to bounce back Sunday as he's coming off a game where he had 27 points and 12 rebounds. Even w/o Tarczweski, the Wildcats still had the rebouding edge Friday, by a wide margin (43-22), but w/ the exception of second chance points, they struggled to score in the paint. The team has failed to cover four in a row, so that's played a major role in this line being smaller than what it should be. Meanwhile, Boise State has covered its last four games, but is off a loss as well as Michigan State beat them 77-67 on Friday. Again, that was a half-point cover for the Broncos, who struggled to rebound in the contest. Arizona has won 36 of its last 40 non-conference games, so the bounce back is likely here. 10* Arizona |
|||||||
11-29-15 | Bucks v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 82-87 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (2:05 ET): There isn't too much turnover on a year-to-year basis when it comes to NBA playoff teams, but it certainly appears as if we may be "swapping out" Milwaukee for Charlotte in the Eastern Conference this season. These teams appear to be trending in very different directions so far as the Bucks have been one of the league's real disappointments at 6-10 SU while being outscored by a ghastly 8.2 points per game. Only two teams in the league have a worse YTD point differential on a per game basis and Bucks' fans will be unhappy to learn that those two are the Lakers & 76ers. This is a clear, but somewhat predictable, step back for a team that improved its win total by 26 games the year prior and covered over 55% of its games. Meanwhile, Charlotte seems to be trending in the other direction. Though off a hard-fought loss to Cleveland, the Hornets had won four in a row prior to that and this will be their sixth straight time playing at home, so the schedule sets up well for them. (That is, until they have to host Golden State this week). But what really makes this a bad matchup for Milwaukee is the fact the Hornets are the fifth most efficient offense in the league right now, averaging 104.5 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks, defensively, are the least efficient team in the league as they allow 109.5 points per 100 possessions. That's a full point per 100 possessions more than the next worst team and what's really frightening is that it's nearly six points more than what winless Philadelphia allows. Charlotte can still hold its head high even after a 95-90 loss to Cleveland Friday where they faltered down the stretch. The team scored 14 points in the fourth quarter (fewest in any 4Q this season) and shot just 5 for 25 from three-point range for the game, also a season worst. They should bounce back offensively here against a Bucks team that in its last four road games has allowed 119.2 PPG on 54 percent shooting overall, including 47.6 percent from three-point range. The Bucks have been blown out w/ tremendous regularity this season; their last five losses have all come by double digits, including a 24-pt loss at Orlando on Friday. 8* Charlotte |
|||||||
11-28-15 | Pelicans +9 v. Jazz | Top | 87-101 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (9:05 ET): Frequently, I mention how teams that find themselves playing in the second night of a back to back can be undervalued, particularly when they're the road team. We have an instance of that tonight in Utah as New Orleans, who was blown out last night by the Clippers, comes to town. Of interest to me is that this line opened at -6, but due to the Pelicans' Anthony Davis suffering an injury, it has moved nearly a full three points as of this morning. While the loss of Davis is potentially huge for the Pelicans moving forward, I feel that the oddmakers have overreacted in this instance as the Jazz are a low-scoring team that probably shouldn't be laying this big of a number. Take the points. This has been a very disappointing season to say the least for New Orleans. Last night's loss dropped them to 4-12 SU on the year and even w/ the Western Conference as a whole not being as strong this year, it's going to take one hell of a run for them to get back into playoff contention. Defensively is where they've really struggled, giving up an average of 109.4 points per game, most in the league. Last night marked the third straight game giving up more than that average, something they were able to get away with when they had Davis and were able to sweep a home and home vs. Phoenix. But possibly playing w/o their superstar, defense will need to become a priority. Note that New Orleans had covered four in a row prior to last night's loss. Utah got off to a pretty solid start this season, but their issue lies on the offensive end where they average only 95.1 PPG, which has them ahead of only winless Philadelphia league-wide. Therefore, they are not a good candidate to lay this many points with, even though defensively they allow just 93.6 PPG, good for third in the league. They've scored 100+ pts in only two games all season. There are injuries on the Jazz front as well as neither Rodney Hood nor Trey Burke are 100 percent. Before beating the Clippers on Wednesday, the Jazz had dropped five of seven. I expect the Pelicans to hang around here, even w/o Davis, and to cover the number. 10* New Orleans |
|||||||
11-27-15 | Pistons v. Thunder -7.5 | Top | 87-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): The Thunder came up just a bucket shy of covering the number for me Wednesday night against the Nets (won by 11, laying -12.5), dropping to 1-6 ATS overall the L7 games. But, for tonight, the number is more manageable and I'll call for them to blow out Detroit. As you know, Kevin Durant is back in the fold and that makes OKC one of the very best teams in the league. Offensively, only the Warriors can claim to be better than the Thunder, who come into tonight averaging a whopping 109.8 points per game and they are 2nd in the league in efficiency. Detroit, off a rare 100+ point outburst in its last game, simply cannot match that kind of production w/ its roster, so I'll lay the points here. The Pistons had dropped six of eight overall before pulling off a surprise upset of Miami Wednesday night. I know that the oddsmakers had them favored, but to me that was a surprise, especially the margin they won by. Two nights after being blown out in Milwaukee, Detroit responded by beating the Heat 104-81, just the second time since November 8th that they topped 100 pts in a game. However, I'm anticipating a massive dropoff in offensive production tonight. The Pistons were 16 of 31 from three-point range against the Heat, a real shocker considering Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the league, but for the season they are just 31.1 percent from behind the arc. Stan Van Gundy also gets the fewest points per game in the league from his bench. Wednesday also marked a season-best effort on the defensive end in terms of points allowed. Here, they are facing a far more offensively prolific foe. Oklahoma City has scored 110+ points ten times this season. They are 7-3 SU w/ Durant in the lineup (3-3 w/o him) and despite them having struggled against the Eastern Conference (0-4 ATS) thus far, I see this shaping up to be an easy win. They have won B2B games by double digits, including a blowout of a pretty good Utah team (111-89), on the road. That was Durant's return and in the two games since he's been back, he's averaged 28.5 PPG. My own power ratings say the spread here should be double digits. 8* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
11-27-15 | Memphis v. Ohio State -2 | Top | 81-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (7:30 ET): Perhaps, before the game, these two coaching staffs can exchange thoughts on what it was like to be upset by TX-Arlington. The Mavericks first got Ohio State, in Columbus, exactly one week ago in 73-68 victory as 18.5-point dogs. Then, on Monday, they went to Memphis and beat the Tigers outright, 68-64 as 12.5-pt dogs (I was on that one!). Now, as we move to a neutral site (Miami, FL) both teams are desperate for a win in this Hall of Fame Challenge. Both squads check in at a disappointing 2-2 SU as Ohio State lost again Tuesday at home to Louisiana Tech. Memphis had lost earlier in the year, at home, to Oklahoma. As I discussed in my analysis of TX-Arlington-Memphis, however, I'm really down on the Tigers under HC Josh Pastner and the immediate future is not looking good. Take OSU. It hasn't been the best week in Columbus as both the football and basketball programs likely envisioned themselves being undefeated on Thanksgiving Day. In the case of Thad Matta's troops, they are young (seven freshmen!). But that still doesn't excuse B2B non-conference home losses, especially considering the Buckeyes had previously won 151 straight non-conference home games! They actually never even led Louisiana Tech on Tuesday. The issue was guarding the three-point line as the Bulldogs went 10 of 25 from behind the arc. But the good news here is that Ohio State probably doesn't have to worry about a performance like that from Memphis, who so far is shooting a woeful 21.4% from three-point range. Free-throw shooting, of all things, played a decisive role in OSU's loss to UT-Arlington. The Buckeyes were an awful 48 percent (13 for 27) from the charity stripe in that game while the Mavericks were an uncharacteristic 19 of 22 (68 percent first two games). As for Memphis, they were just flat out beaten up by the Mavs, who only shot 33% from the floor, yet still led comfortably the entire game (by 10 at half)! That's not a good sign for the Tigers and in my previous analysis I'd mentioned how Pastner has already had seven players transfer out of the program during his watch. I believe the Buckeyes are better suited to bounce back in this spot. Lay the short number. 8* Ohio State |
|||||||
11-26-15 | Stanford +16 v. Villanova | Top | 45-59 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
8* Stanford (4:30 ET): Well, I'm stepping out against Villanova yet again. Jay Wright's Wildcats are now an astounding 50-20 ATS since the start of the 2013-14 season and my feeling is that astounding record of success at the betting window HAS to start regressing sooner rather than later, right? Twice previously I've stepped out against this team and paid for it. One was w/ Nebraska (+18), who lost 87-63. The next time was w/ a high-scoring East Tennessee State squad, who was getting 24.5 from the oddsmakers, but even that wasn't enough as they fell 86-51. In both instances, 'Nova was able to go on a massive first half run, 22-0 and 24-0, that essentially put the game out of reach before halftime. But here, we're getting the Wildcats outside of Philly for the first time and that makes taking the points attractive. Underdog Stanford is 2-2 SU, but 0-3 ATS and off B2B SU losses. After B2B 93-pt efforts to open the season (against WI-Green Bay & Charleston Southern), the Cardinal fell at home to SMU (ranked team) by 15 (as 5.5-pt dogs). Last time out wasn't any better as they lost by 17 at St. Mary's as a 3.5-pt dog. This is a program that has won the NIT twice in the L4 years, plus made a run to the Sweet 16 in 2014, but they did lose three starters from LY that combined to average nearly 50 points per game. Defense, or rather lack of it, has been the issue during the two-game losing streak as their last two opponents have combined to shoot a ridiculous 56 percent from the field against them. HC Johnny Dawkins called Sunday's loss to St. Mary's (where the team was outscored 45-24 after halftime) "as bad as I've ever seen us defensively." Improvement HAS to be expected. Note this game is at MSG, where Stanford has captured its two NIT Championships. While Stanford's defense can only get better, Villanova probably can't get any better - on either end of the court! So far, they've outscored their four opponents by an average of 28.7 PPG, holding them to just 33.1 percent shooting overall! Stanford, for as much trouble as they've had the L2 games on the defensive end, is shooting above 50% for the year. Villanova too endured heavy losses from LY's team (three starters) and again, no team can continue to cover games at the rate they've been. I could keep going on, but really this is all about one team's ATS record being due to regress to the mean. 8* Stanford |
|||||||
11-25-15 | Hawks v. Wolves +3 | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Monday saw the T'wolves avoid the embarrassment of becoming the first team to lose to Philadelphia this season as a late fourth quarter rally gave them a 100-95 win here at home. Unfortunately for myself and anyone else who might have had Minny, they didn't cover and that dropped them to 0-7 against the spread so far this season at the Target Center. But it's "high time" that this team, who is much improved from last year, punches a winning ticket in the Twin Cities and I say tonight against unrested Atlanta is the spot. Normally, a team might be slightly undervalued playing in the 2nd night of a back to back, but not the Hawks here as they are off a 121-97 beatdown of Boston last night. Take the points. Minnesota actually hadn't even won a game straight up on its home floor this season until it beat the 76ers Monday. But they are a relatively surprising 6-8 SU for the year (16-66 SU last year) due to strong play on the road. It's quite odd to see a team w/ the kind of home-road dichotomy, especially one this young. A quick check of the stats reveals that defense has been the primary issue at home as the T'wolves are giving up an average of 105.7 points per game here. They could probably use an improvement in three-point shooting (30.7% overall) as well. The good news is that when on a one-game winning streak, the team is a perfect 3-0 ATS this year! That includes an outright win at Atlanta (where they led by as many as 30 points!), so the underdog should not be intimidated here. Atlanta comes into this game banged up as Kent Bazemore is still out and center Tiago Splitter may not play either. Of course, PG Jeff Teague has been in and out of the lineup recently as well. Prior to last night's big win at home, the Hawks had failed to cover six of their previous seven contests. Duplicating Tuesday's ridiculously hot shooting (56.2% overall) is highly unlikely here, out on the road. Minnesota's defense has gotten better its last two games (95.5 PPG allowed) and my own personal power ratings have this game as a pick 'em, indicating that taking any points is a luxury. 10* Minnesota |
|||||||
11-25-15 | Nets v. Thunder -12.5 | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (8:35 ET): Kevin Durant is back and so too are the Thunder, who blew out a good Utah team on the road in KD's return Monday night, 111-89 as 2.5-pt dogs. Things should be considerably easier for OKC this evening as they welcome in a terrible Brooklyn team that rates as the third worst in the entire league despite a recent stretch where they've covered six of seven games. The Nets might be 3-1 ATS as double digit dogs so far this season, including taking Golden State to overtime, but they've also been beaten by double digits five different times this season and four of those have been out on the road. Oklahoma City had failed to cover five in a row before Durant's return, but should cover easily here w/ him back tonight. What made Monday's offensive output all the more impressive for OKC is that it came against a foe that was among the league-leaders, allowing only 92.3 PPG. Brooklyn is not noted for any kind of defensive prowess; in fact they allow 105.6 PPG on the road and are 25th in terms of efficiency. It took their best shooting performance of the season (50.6 percent) to upend Boston (second game of a home & home) Sunday and in the two games prior, the Nets allowed an average of 118 PPG. The Celtics shot 58.6% against them in the first game of the home and home. Considering that the Thunder average an impressive 109.8 PPG (2nd most in the league, trailing only Golden State), I see them having no trouble scoring tonight. The offensive numbers get even more impressive w/ Durant in the lineup as the team is averaging 114.3 PPG, which is right on par w/ the Warriors. They are #2 in offensive efficiency (again GSW #1) league-wide. Durant is shooting a career best 52.4 percent from the floor this season en route to a 28.0 PPG scoring average. With both he and Russell Westbrook on the floor, the team averages a phenomenal 117.5 points per 100 possessions. Brooklyn had not won a game when allowing 100+ prior to Sunday and considering what they're likely to give up here, I see this one ending in a massive blowout for the home team. My own power ratings indicate that this number should be closer to -18! 8* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
11-25-15 | Yale v. Duke -13 | Top | 61-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
10* Duke (7:00 ET): Coach K & the Blue Devils return to Cameron Indoor tonight w/ little money in their pockets. Well, Coach K's wallet is probably "fat enough," but this isn't intended to be a critique of the NCAA. Rather, my intention is to point out how Duke has yet to cover a single spread this season. They did just win the 2K Classic in Madison Square Garden, beating VCU and Georgetown, but those victories came by a combined 10 points and they faced a five-point deficit at halftime vs. the Hoyas on Sunday. Still though, the B2B wins were a nice way to bounce back from last Tuesday's loss to Kentucky and now the Devils return home where they consistently win in blowout fashion. It's shocking to me that Yale is getting this much respect from the oddsmakers. Lay the points. Duke won its first two games of the season here at home by a total of 56 points over Siena and Bryant. Obviously, the level of competition can be called into question there, but what can't is the program's 25-1 SU record as a home favorite of 12.5+ points the L3 seasons. In the -12.5 to -15 point range, they are on a 40-2 SU run here at home, going 25-16-1 ATS in those games (4-1 ATS L5). In all due respect to Yale, this is a pretty extreme drop in class from last week's slate of opponents as well. The win over G'town was actually more impressive than the final score shows as the Hoyas shot nearly 55 percent from the field and dominated in points in the paint. I wouldn't count on Yale owning such edges here. Duke has won 118 straight non-conference games at home, by the way. Now, Yale did just take SMU (a ranked team) down to the wire, losing only 71-69 as 13.5-pt dogs. But as noted before, this is still a step up in class and thus despite the ATS win, the Bulldogs should not be getting the same amount of respect from the oddsmakers here. They are now just 4-45 SU as a road dog of 12.5 pts or more and playing their third consecutive road game in less than a week has to be taxing, even this early in the season. I imagine Duke scoring early and often in this one as SMU was able to shoot 50 percent against Yale on Sunday. The Blue Devils are 7-2 ATS after allowing 80+ points the previous game. 10* Duke |
|||||||
11-24-15 | Lakers v. Warriors -17 | Top | 77-111 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
8* Golden State (10:35 ET): This sets up to be the blowout of the year so far in NBA as you have the #1 ranked team in offensive efficiency against the team ranked 28th in defensive efficiency. I should not have to clarify "which is which." The Warriors, going for a NBA record 16-0 start to the season, should obviously be highly motivated tonight. They are already outscoring foes by 14.4 points per game this year and tonight face an opponent that is being outscored by 7.2 PPG (Western Conference worst). Not only are the Lakers awful defensively, but because of Kobe Bryant's woeful shooting, they are just as awful offensively. As a team, they are shooting 41.6 percent from the floor. I don't recommend laying a number this big very often (if ever!), but this should be a huge blowout. Though that per game point differential is quite impressive for the Warriors (was +10.1 PPG last year), I was kind of shocked to learn that they have just TWO wins by 20 or more points all year. One was against Houston in the second game, the other was a 50-point blowout of Memphis that can obviously severely skew numbers w/ the sample size still being relatively small. However, as alluded to earlier, this will arguably their weakest opponent to date. They did host Brooklyn 10 days ago and were taken into overtime, but that was a Sunday evening affair that likely did not have their attention. With the national spotlight on here (TNT game) and a record at stake, we should be getting Golden State at its collective best and that's a level that no other team in the league can come close to matching right now. At the other end of the spectrum is the 2-11 Lakers. They are 1-21 SU "all-time" (meaning as far as my database goes back!) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points, so let's concede the straight up result here right off the bat. LA has been a double-digit dog twice this year, to Miami and Phoenix, and failed to cover both times. They've lost three in a row, all by double digits, the last coming by 14 at home to a subpar Portland team that is dealing w/ replacing four starters from LY's squad. This team is going nowhere fast as long as Kobe and his 33.3 shooting percentage continue to dominate the basketball. 8* Golden State |
|||||||
11-24-15 | TCU v. Rhode Island -5.5 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
8* Rhode Island (6:00 ET): The season got off to a somewhat inauspicious start for URI when projected leading scorer E.C. Matthews suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first half of the season opener. Playing w/o him for the first time, the Rams lost by three at home (as 1.5 pt favorites) to a pretty good Valparaiso team. It's not as if they played poorly though; they led at the half and it was a one-point game in the final 20 seconds. Missed free throws (correctable!) were actually the story as the Rams were 13 of 24 from the line while the Crusaders were 11 of 13. There was also an uncharacteristically poor defense effort from Rhode Island in the second half as they allowed Valpo to score 40 pts. That's almost the number they've allowed in their other two games! The good news here is that URI bounced back Saturday w/ a dominating effort as they trounced Cleveland State 73-45 as 13-point chalk. Now, the team moves on to Cancun to play TCU, a team coming off a 76-67 loss to South Dakota State - at home! As just referenced above, the Rams' defense has been mostly incredible this season. They held Cleveland State (admittedly not a very good team) to just 27.3% shooting for the game (while shooting 63.4% themselves!). It was a wire to wire win w/ a 20-point halftime lead. In three of six halves this season, the Rams have given up fewer than 20 points. Opponents are shooting just 34.2 percent against them through three games, including 19.6% from three-point range. Turning up the defense is a great way to nullify the loss of your leading scorer. As for TCU, they did score 90 pts in B2B wins to open the season, but both games were against grossly overmatched foes. Saturday vs. South Dakota State (first D-I opponent), they shot only 33.3 percent from the floor and trailed by as many as 22 on their home floor. After falling behind 12-11 roughly seven minutes into the game, the Horned Frogs would never taste the lead again. Yes, they'd previously won 20 straight non-conference games, but the list of opponents there is not strong. Also, TCU is also down a couple of key players, including projected leading rebounder Kenrich Williams (for the season). Forward Chris Washburn is also out 2-4 wks w/ a finger injury. I look for the favorite to roll in this one, thanks to its tremendous defense. 8* Rhode Island |
|||||||
11-23-15 | UNLV +4 v. UCLA | Top | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
8* UNLV (11:30 ET): The Runnin' Rebels are unbeaten (3-0) and taking points Monday vs. UCLA (neutral site game), which is curious as I have them rated as the better team. The favored Bruins' season got off to quite the ominous start w/ an 84-81 home loss to Monmouth (as 15-point chalk). This game takes place out on the Island, as part of the annual Maui Invitational and I expect the dog to be the far more inspired side as its a chance from the team from the Mountain West to knock off a team from the more heralded Pac 12. After surviving a scare from Cal Poly in the season opener (won 74-72 after leading by as many as 13), UNLV blew out B2B overmatched opponents in Vegas and should be ready to roll here. Take the points. After scoring 80 points or more in their previous game, the Rebels are 11-1 against the spread the previous three seasons. That record improved w/ an 84-64 win over Southern Utah last week, which followed a 107-45 cakewalk over New Mexico Highlands (who?!) two days prior. After making 13 three-pointers against that cupcake, the Rebs were just 5 of 20 from distance against SUU, but better than 50 percent on two-point field goals. Patrick McCaw continues to carry the offensive load w/ 50 points in three games (24 vs. Southern Utah) and just wait until this Stephen Zimmerman, Jr (NBA prospect!) comes around. The 7' freshman was a Top 50 recruit and now a projected lottery pick. He too has scored in double figures every game and more importantly is averaging 9.7 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, the UCLA program is trending down. They too barely got by Cal Poly (despite shooting 50 percent from the field) and then turned in their best effort of the season, Thursday vs. Pepperdine, in a 81-67 win and cover. But that loss to Monmouth is indicative of where this team is at right now. Yes, the Bruins have held double digit leads in the second half of every game. But they don't play very good defense and you really don't hear about Steve Alford's team being a contender in the Pac 12 Conference. 8* UNLV |
|||||||
11-23-15 | Suns +8.5 v. Spurs | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (8:35 ET): I often argue that teams playing in the second night of a back to back, on the road, are typically undervalued. Such is the case here w/ a Suns team that will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing performance last night in New Orleans where they lost 122-116 to the now 3-11 Pelicans. They'll certainly need a better defensive performance than that tonight as the visit a San Antonio team that leads the entire NBA in terms of defensive efficiency. I was on the Spurs Saturday night in their 10-point victory over struggling Memphis, but I have the Suns currently rated higher than the Grizzlies and think this is an excellent opportunity to take the points. Lost in all the talk of Golden State's near record setting start is the fact that only five Western Conference teams currently find themselves above .500! One is obviously San Antonio, but another is Phoenix, who is outscoring opponents by nearly four points per game this season, good for the fourth best per game differential in the Conference, trailing only the three "heavyweights" (Warriors, Spurs, Thunder). Since I successfully played against the Suns in their season opener (lost 111-95 at home to Dallas), they've been blown out only one time the rest of the season and that was in Oklahoma City back on November 8th. That loss also marked the only time this season that the Suns have dropped B2B games. San Antonio also lost to New Orleans recently (Friday), but I came back w/ them the following night here at home and they took care of business against Memphis. While the Spurs' defensive numbers are very impressive (just 85.3 PPG allowed at home!), those will be put to the test tonight by a Phoenix offense that has now scored 230 points its last two games and plays at league's fastest pace (yes, even faster than Golden State). LaMarcus Aldridge is currently listed as questionable for tonight's game (keep an eye on status) and despite being unbeaten at home, the best team that the Spurs have beaten here, by record, is 7-6 Charlotte. Phoenix has consistently been undervalued as an underdog (46-32 ATS) and on the road (54-30 ATS) the L3 seasons. 10* Phoenix |
|||||||
11-23-15 | Texas-Arlington +12.5 v. Memphis | Top | 68-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10* UT-Arlington (8:30 ET): The underdog Mavericks certainly won't be intimidated tonight at the FedEx Forum in Memphis considering they are coming off a 73-68 upset of Ohio State (what an awful week in Columbus!). This team is a lethal 37-19 ATS as an underdog, including 20-11 ATS the L3 seasons. It wasn't exactly a "lucky" win Friday in Columbus either; UT-Arlington took the lead early in the second half and never gave it back, going up by as many as nine points. While some might want to point toward the inevitable "letdown" spot here, I'm not buying it as this is a national TV game as well. I also place a tremendous importance on that Ohio State result as I have the Buckeyes rated as a significantly better squad compared to tonight's opponent, Memphis. Take the points. Both of Memphis' lined games thus far have seen the ATS result come down to the wire. They missed out on the cover by a single point in the opener, a 67-49 victory over Southern Miss. Then, the Tigers failed as four-point home dogs to Oklahoma, losing 84-78. Two days later, they bounced back w/ an easy 83-65 win over Grambling (no line), but I think there are clear signs that this program is regressing under Josh Pastner, who had the unenviable task of following the legendary John Calipari here. Pastner has been unable to reel in the kind of talent that Coach Cal could with ease and the most damning number for him is "7" as is the number of players that have transferred out under his watch. Note that Memphis led Grambling by only four points at the half on Thursday. The Tigers ended up shooting 48.1 percent for the game, easily their season-high, but that was to be expected against such a weak opponent. In their first two games, they were below 40 percent and that's troubling when being asked to lay this kind of weight. They are a disastrous 22.2 percent from three-point range through three games. UT-Arlington has also struggled to shoot the ball this year (37.4 percent overall), but it didn't cost them in one hostile environment and any kind of improvement tonight should lead them to easily stay within the generous number. 10* TX-Arlington |
|||||||
11-23-15 | 76ers v. Wolves -7 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Laying this many points w/ the young T'wolves might seem a bit "dicey," not to mention "pricey," especially considering a poor 0-6 ATS home record to this point (7-0 ATS on the road!). But, the opponent is Philadelphia, who is now 0-14 SU and coming off a crushing loss Saturday in Miami where they blew a double digit lead. Any time you can get away w/ laying single digits against the Sixers, you ought to probably go for it as they are being outscored by a whopping 14.1 points per game. Minnesota has slowed down dramatically (lost 6 of 7) after a surprisingly strong start, but should get back on track here. Philadelphia won only 18 games last season. Two of them were at the expense of the Timberwolves and that ended up being the difference between these two in the standings as it was Minnesota finishing w/ the league's worst record (16-66 SU). However, with B2B #1 overall draft picks on their roster (Andrew Wiggins, Karl Anthony-Towns), there is no denying that the T'wolves are improved this year. Yes, it's just the second time they've been favored this season and likely the most points they'll be asked to lay in a game all season. But this is a team that has managed to beat Chicago, Atlanta and Miami, all on the road, by nine or more points. After scoring only 86 points in a loss to Detroit on Friday, I anticipate a bounce back offensively for the T'wolves tonight. That bounce back starts w/ Kevin Martin now in the starting lineup. A more natural boost should be expected here as well considering the team missed 10 of 13 three-point attempts vs. Detroit and was only 17 of 25 from the free throw line. Defensive improvement should also be expected as Philly is - by far - the worst offensive team in the league, averaging only 90.1 points per game on 41 percent shooting. Saturday's 91-point effort was actually the Sixers' highest output in the L6 games and it came on just 37.5% shooting. I don't see them responding well to blowing what was, easily, their best opportunity to pick up a win all season and consider that there have been only three times this season that they have finished the game inside a 7-pt margin! Lay the points. 8* Minnesota |
|||||||
11-23-15 | Knicks v. Heat -5 | Top | 78-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
8* Miami (7:35 ET): The Knicks are a surprising 8-6 SU and have covered 7 in a row (!) after Saturday's road win at Houston, 107-102. Though the Rockets are probably the biggest disappointment in the league thus far, it was an impressive win nonetheless considering the fact the Knicks were playing the second game of a back to back, on the road. They are now a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games this season, including an outright win at Oklahoma City (no Durant) to start the current trip. But this is now their third road game in four nights and the toughest test to date as the Heat are playing for the seventh consecutive time at home and should be more than ready. Miami is 6-1 ATS the L7 meetings w/ New York. Lay the points. I anticipate the Heat to come out strong here as we saw them fall behind winless Philadelphia their last time out and it took a huge finish to the game to avoid what would have been a very embarrassing loss. They actually trailed Philly by as many 17 in the first half, which would be the Sixers' biggest lead in any game all season, and were still down by double digits midway through the fourth quarter. Then, their Eastern Conference leading defense (92.9 PPG allowed) kicked in and allowed just four points over the games' final seven minutes. Defensively, it was a nice return to form after allowing 100+ pts in B2B games, something they'd previously done just one time all season. I see Miami limiting New York's three-point shooting, something that has been preposterously good (55.3 percent!), tonight. The Knicks' surprising amount of success in the early part of the season has obviously influenced this line and the result is an undervalued favorite. My own personal power ratings suggest this line should be closer to -7. Again, the Knicks have covered seven straight overall and are 7-0 ATS on the road, streaks that are "due" to be broken. With Miami 0-4 ATS its L4 overall, it does appear that we have reached the proverbial "tipping point" with these two teams. I keep coming back to the Heat's defense because it is #2 in the league in terms of efficiency (94.8 points per 100 possessions), about six points per game fewer than the Knicks. 8* Miami |
|||||||
11-22-15 | Butler +4 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
10* Butler (7:30 ET): This is the Championship Game in the Puerto Rico tip-off. One thing these teams have in common is an ability to score. Since opening their season by "doubling up" The Citadel, 144-71, Butler has beaten both Missouri State (93-59) and Temple (74-69) to get here. Miami FL has gone over 90 points in three consecutive contests, including wins over Mississippi State (105-79) and Utah (90-66) here in Puerto Rico. The Hurricanes were only a 1.5-pt favorite in their blowout win Frday (24 point margin!), so the market is high on them right now while at the same time possibly underrating the underdog Bulldogs, who failed to cover the number in the win over Temple. That makes this an excellent situation to take the points, in my opinion, and that's what I'm doing. Butler actually trailed Temple by as many as 10 points Friday and shot a season-worst 36.4 percent from the field, including 5 of 21 from three-point range. But four players still scored in double figures, including both members of the starting backcourt, and the team's defense ended up being the story. They held the Owls to just 38 percent and Chris Holtmann's team turned the ball over just five times. I fully anticipate the shooting to improve here, not just because of the fact the Bulldogs shot 62.2 percent from the field in their first two games, but also due to the fact Miami actually allowed Utah to shoot 50 percent its last time out. Due in large part to those two great NCAA Tournament runs, Butler is 64-31 ATS at a neutral court setting. Defense will also be a major story in determining the victor here and in that department, I give a big edge to Butler. Yes, Miami has been impressive offensively these first four games, but Butler is holding teams to just 32.8% overall shooting (22.8 percent from three-point range). I'm surprised that for a second straight game "The U" is a slight favorite to defeat a ranked opponent. Through 3-0 ATS laying points this season, the Canes are just 16-22 ATS in that role the last two-plus seasons. Butler has the third best assist to turnover ratio in the entire country. The better team is the one getting points here. 10* Butler |
|||||||
11-22-15 | Celtics -5 v. Nets | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
8* Boston (6:05 ET): The Celtics are tied w/ Cleveland for the best point differential in the Eastern Conference right now at +7.2 per game, but unlike LeBron and the Cavaliers, Boston is typically not asked to lay a big number at the betting window. That consistently makes them a pretty solid value and sure enough they've covered six of their last eight, including a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road. All seven of the Celtics' wins this season have been by 13 points or greater, including Friday's beatdown of Brooklyn (120-95), which I was on, and now for the second game of the home and home set, the favorite again comes in being underrated. Six of the Nets losses this season have come by double digits. Lay the points. Friday's win by Boston saw them outscore Brooklyn 43-23 in the second quarter and for all intents and purposes, the game was over at that point. The Celtics shot a blistering 58.6 percent from the field, obviously a season-high for a game this season, compared to just 39.3 percent for the Nets. Anyone banking on the "revenge angle" needs to know that Boston has been a fantastic team on the road the L3 seasons (53-35 ATS) including an average margin of victory of 13.2 PPG this year. This team has scored 100+ in each of its last five games. Brooklyn, meanwhile, has hit triple digits only four times all season. There won't be any Marcus Smart tonight for the Celtics (bruised right knee), but Boston is deep enough and Brooklyn a weak enough opponent, for that not to really matter. So much of what I said in Friday's analysis still applies here. The fast pace at which the Celtics play should continue to give the Nets all sorts of trouble. Boston forced 20 turnovers Friday and scored 20 points in transition. They continue to be near the top of the league in both categories. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Celtics are third in the league, giving up exactly 11 points fewer per 100 possessions compared to Brooklyn, who ranks 27th. This isn't nearly enough points for the underdog Nets, who have just two wins to their credit and they came at the expense of Houston (already fired its coach) and Atlanta (by two points). The Celtics have taken four of five meetings from the Nets since the start of last season, three of those wins coming by double digits. 8* Boston |
|||||||
11-21-15 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -7.5 | Top | 82-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Both the Spurs and Grizzlies played last night. San Antonio lost, 104-90 in a real shocker to New Orleans. Memphis won, in blowout fashion, over Houston. What those results have done for tonight, however, is cause the line to be significantly lower than it should be. Prior to last night, the Spurs had lost just one time since Opening Night and that came at the buzzer in Washington. Off their previous two losses this year, they have won by an average margin of 23.5 points per game (27 and 20 pts). The Grizzlies, while they have won four straight, still have a bad point differential (-5.0 PPG) despite now having a winning overall record. They've been blown out numerous times already (five double digit losses). Lay the points. In all three of its losses this year, San Antonio has allowed 100+ points. They've allowed 100+ in only one of their wins. So, that's probably the key right there. Fortunately, Memphis comes in averaging just 95.8 PPG. They've been better of late (103.4 L5 games), but don't expect that here against a Spurs' defense which is permitting just 86 PPG here at home. All of San Antonio's losses this year have also come out on the road. Here at home, they are outscoring opponents, on average, by 16 points per game. It is a little concerning that LaMarcus Aldridge may not play here, but then again Memphis could be w/o Zach Randolph, so that would be a wash. The Grizz are just 8-36 SU all-time here in the Alamo, including 1-3 both SU/ATS their last four visits. Breaking down Memphis' current four-game win streak, they've found themselves in some pretty advantageous spots. Last night's opponent, Houston, is a total mess. They also beat Oklahoma City w/o Kevin Durant. Portland and Minnesota aren't exactly contenders right now. As I've said before this year, it's a bit concerning that in three games this year against Cleveland and Golden State, the Grizz have lost by a combined 96 points. Mario Chalmers' arrival has coincided w/ the Grizzlies turnaround, but I don't see that lasting. Not only is San Antonio 24-14 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite, but they are 25-15 ATS in the second of back to backs. 8* San Antonio |
|||||||
11-20-15 | Nets v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): This is another game where the spread is far too low despite the favorite's lack of history in this price range. All six of the Celtics' victories this season have been by at least 13 points and that's a margin I'm looking at for tonight's home game w/ lowly Brooklyn. Boston had a 3-game SU/ATS win streak snapped on Wednesday, losing 106-102 to Dallas, a game which they actually led by as many as 18 in the first half. A disastrous fourth quarter (outscored 36-24) should leave a bitter taste in the players' mouths and I expect a bounce back here against a Nets side that may have covered five in a row, but only has two SU wins to their credit all season. Lay the points. This is the front end of a home and home between the two Atlantic Division rivals. Last year, the road team took three of four meetings, but the lone home win came from the Celtics by 16 points. Later in the season, they would win at Brooklyn by eight and 19 points. The Nets' only two wins this year came at the expense of Houston, who already fired its coach, and Atlanta (by two points). They have routinely been blown out, losing four times by double digits, and this will be their sixth time playing out on the road in the L7 games. Only three teams in the entire league - Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland can claim a better YTD point differential than these Celtics. As discussed in the Charlotte writeup, the Nets are off a five-point loss on Wednesday. That came on the heels of just their second win of the season, the previous night. I feel they're still getting too much credit for taking Golden State into overtime on Sunday and while they're on a 5-0 ATS run (all as dogs) coming into tonight, remember that they opened the season 1-6 at the betting window. Turnovers could be a big deciding factor tonight as the Celtics, who play at one of the league's fastest paces, average 23.6 PPG off turnovers and 14.4 PPG on the fast break. Defensively, they're also much better than Brooklyn, giving up nearly 10 PPG fewer per 100 possessions. 8* Boston |
|||||||
11-20-15 | 76ers v. Hornets -10 | Top | 88-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): This might seem like a LOT of points to lay w/ the Hornets, but of course the opponent is Philadelphia, who is winless and being outscored by a frightening 14.0 PPG. Two nights ago, the Sixers were destroyed on their own floor, 112-85 by Indiana. Right now, the difference between the Hornets and Pacers is fairly negligible. So even though, they only beat Brooklyn by five on Wednesday, I expect the home team to take care of business in this one. The Hornets are 4-1 SU in Charlotte so far, scoring 107 points per game, and overall they are actually sixth in the league in offensive efficiency, trailing only some of the league's real "heavyweights." Philly is last in that department, by a considerable margin. Lay the points. One of the reasons that the Hornets have been so efficient on offense is that they don't turn the ball over much. They give it up, on average, only 11 times per game and that's almost two per game less than every other team! Who turns the ball over the most in the league? Why, Philadelphia, of course! The Sixers offensive efficiency has become so bad that they now average seven points less per 100 possessions than the second worst team in the league (Brooklyn). That gap is more sizable than the difference between the #7 and #29 teams! Philly has turned the ball over a total of 58 times the last two games, including 31 on Wednesday, a league-high for any game this season. Over half of the Sixers' losses have come by 17 pts or greater and that's the kind of margin my own personal power ratings are suggesting for tonight. Charlotte is in the midst of a seven-game home stand that will take them through the rest of the month. They should be able to pad their record in the first several games before visits from both Cleveland and Golden State later on. Defense will need to be better tonight than it's been recently as the Hornets have allowed 100+ in three of the last four games. But, as already discussed, Philaelphia is the worst offensive team in the league right now. They have not scored more than 86 pts in any of their L4 games and been held below 90 in five of the last six. Look for the Hornets to roll. 8* Charlotte |
|||||||
11-20-15 | East Tennessee State +24 v. Villanova | Top | 51-86 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
8* East Tennessee State (7:00 ET): I'm going to step out in front of the Villanova train yet again here as a 48-20 ATS mark the last two-plus seasons certainly is due to regress back to the mean, right? Last season alone, the Wildcats went 25-10 at the betting window and thus far in 2015, they haven't been messing around w/ wins over Farleigh Dickinson (non-lined game) and Nebraska coming by 37 and 24 points, respectively, I went against them Tuesday vs. the Cornhuskers and after a great start (for me), it wasn't very pleasant to watch. A seven-point deficit quickly turned into a double-digit lead by halftime for the Wildcats, thanks to a 22-0 run. Are you kidding? I still think that the linesmakers catch up w/ Jay Wright's team though. Take the points. Bad shooting by opponents has really helped 'Nova in the first two games, not that they needed it. But it should be pointed out that FDU and Nebraska were both ice cold from the field for the most part, shooting 27% and 37.7%, respectively. Enter East Tennessee State, a team that has topped 100 pts in each of its first two games, albeit against far weaker competition than they'll face here. But still, a team that can put the ball in the hoop that much is certainly worthy of a shot, taking this many points. The Buccaneers are off a 103-90 win over Wisconsin-Green Bay (game was at 6 AM ET), very much a "real" opponent (as opposed to Division III Averett, whom they blew out in the season opener), as the Phoenix had just taken Stanford to OT in its first game. So, don't discount the underdog here. They won't be intimidated. ETSU may not be known nationally, but I think they could be a real surprise for first year HC Steve Forbes thanks to a number of key transfers. The Buccaneers are not the favorites to win the Southern Conference (Chattanooga is), but they're certainly a contender. Five players scored in double figures Tuesday morning and the team has been above 50 percent shooting in both games. This will be Villanova's toughest test to date. The Wildcats benefited greatly from turnovers against Nebraska w/ 22 of them being converted into 33 points. But E Tennessee St has just 22 TO's in two games. They also are shooting 85% from the free throw line while leading the nation in total # of attempts! 8* East Tennessee State |
|||||||
11-19-15 | Bucks v. Cavs -9 | Top | 100-115 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): While LeBron James may still be having "nightmares" over what happened in June against the Golden State, November can't exactly have him and the Cavaliers sleeping well either as they've gone a bankroll busting 0-8 against the spread this month, including a couple of outright losses, one to Detroit on Tuesday and the other to Milwaukee on Saturday. They'll get a chance to avenge the latter tonight, and after publicly being called out by James, the team should be more than ready. It was a double overtime loss to the Bucks on Saturday where the Cavs shot only 40.7 percent from the field. Being back at home, where they're unbeaten, LeBron and company should gain revenge. Lay the points. It was a disastrous finish to the game Tuesday for Cleveland as they blew a lead they'd held for much of the game, late. They led by eight with just over seven minutes to go, but then went incredibly cold, scoring just one more basket (a James' layup w/ 15 seconds remaining) the rest of the way. Intentionally fouling the Pistons' Andre Drummond backfired as the 40 percent FT shooter made four of five from the line down the stretch. The Cavs' own FT woes have really hurt them this season as they're shooting just 68.7 percent from the charity stripe, which is downright unforgivable for a supposed title contender. The good news is that the FT percentage goes up to a more respectable 74.4 percent here at home. The fact that opposing teams have shot 77.2 percent from the line hasn't helped the Cavaliers either. Milwaukee had started to show signs of a turnaround, but then got blasted Tuesday night in Washington, losing 115-86 to the Wizards. It was the third time this season that the Bucks allowed that many points, though two of those have come against the Wiz. Still though, Cleveland is more than capable of putting up a big point total here tonight. It's highly likely that the players not named "LeBron" or "Kevin Love" will do better than the collective 34.8 percent shooting they put forth in the first meeting w/ Milwaukee. This Bucks team has lost four times by 16 or more points already this season. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
11-19-15 | Rutgers +6.5 v. St. John's | Top | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
10* Rutgers (7:00 ET): I wouldn't be too confident laying points w/ St. Johns in their first real test under 1st year HC Chris Mullin (yes, the alum & former NBA great). It has been somewhat of a tumultuous last month for the Red Storm as a number of players that were expected to be key contributors this season have been ruled ineligible. The most notable is Marcus LoVett, a much hyped freshman that many thought would quickly evolve into the team's best player. Two other players, Felix Balamou (a senior) and Kassoum Yakwe (another freshman), also aren't going to be playing. Suffice to say, it remains to be seen just how good of a head coach Mullin can be (has never previously served in such a capacity) and with a roster made up almost entirely of new faces (90 percent of last year's scoring gone!), I think the immediate future looks rather grim. The Johnnies' are 2-0 SU, but wins over Wagner and MD-Baltimore County certainly shouldn't impress anyone, especially considering it was a three-point game vs. Wagner in the final 90 seconds! Also, the Red Storm lost an exhibition game - to a Division II school (St. Thomas Aquinas) - by 32 points! Things looked a little better on Monday against MD-Baltimore County, but that too was a three-point game in the second half. In the two regular seasons games so far, St. John's has turned the ball over on a whopping 23% of its total possessions. Depth is a major concern in both the front and back courts. So far, the Red Storm have been lucky in that neither of their first two opponents could hit water from a boat, but a Rutgers squad that's shooting 46.6% from the floor can. While St. John's prized recruit is being forced to watch games from the bench, the first real top recruit of the Eddie Jordan era at Rutgers was a key contributor in the Scarlet Knights' 82-70 win over Howard on Sunday. Corey Sanders led the way w/ 15 points in his debut after being forced to sit out the opener due to his own eligibility issue. This is another young team, but at least it's one now filled w/ Jordan's recruits as opposed to those of his predecessor Mike Rice. Three-point shooting has been the major issue for the Scarlet Knights thus far, but they're getting open looks and I expect some of those shots to start going down. Take the points here. 10* Rutgers |
|||||||
11-18-15 | Raptors +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
8* Toronto (9:05 ET): Again, it's a team playing w/o rest being undervalued by the linesmakers. The Raptors refused to "play ball" w/ me last night, staying inside the number at Golden State. For the record, Toronto was trailing by 16 at halftime. But they did manage to trim the deficit all the way down to a single point in the fourth quarter. While that result may not have been to my liking, it won't stop me from turning around and backing the Raptors as underdogs tonight as they visit a Utah team coming off a four-game East Coast swing. The Jazz split the four games straight up (3-1 ATS), last winning for me, 97-96 (as three-point pups) in Atlanta Sunday evening. While 7-3 ATS and one of the top defensive teams in the league, I'm not convinced that they should be favored by this many against a team the caliber of Toronto. Take the points. This will only be Utah's third home game of the season, so that does speak well to the already impressive looking start to the season. But it comes in a tough spot as they will be hitting the road again Friday for a tilt w/ the Dallas Mavericks. I'm not sure this non-conference matchup will hold their attention quite as much. This is also only the third time the Jazz have been asked to lay more than three points at the betting window. The previous two instances came against league-worst Philadelphia (covered) and Portland, who beat them outright here in Salt Lake City. The issue right now w/ Utah being favored is that they don't score a ton of points. Currently, they are averaging only 95.5 per game. There's also the issue of two starters, Rodney Hood & Rudy Gobert, battling injuries. The Raptors have won and covered all four meetings vs. the Jazz the past two seasons and done so in dominating fashion, winning by an average margin of 19 points per contest. They were favored last year here in Utah and won by 19. They too can play some defense, having held six of their first seven opponents under triple digits. Unfortunately, they've allowed 100+ in four of their last five, but playing Golden State will do that to you. The other occasions were far less excusable, but I like the fact this team is 2-0 SU/ATS in the second night of back to backs this season. 8* Toronto |
|||||||
11-18-15 | Loyola-Chicago v. New Mexico -6 | Top | 51-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
8* New Mexico (9:00 ET): First off, best wishes go to Lobos' reserve forward Devon Williams, who collapsed in the team's 83-74 win at in-state rival New Mexico State on Sunday. Williams suffered what is being called a cervical spinal bruise and obviously is out of the lineup for the near future, but by all accounts will be fine. Undoubtedly, playing for their injured teammate tonight, I really like UNM to roll against Loyola-IL, who is forced to make the cross-country trip as part of the now-annual Mountain West vs. Missouri Valley challenge, an event you may or may not be aware of. The MWC has dominated previously (24-15 SU) and I expect the Lobos to keep that trend alive tonight in "The Pit," which has always been a difficult place for the visitor to win. New Mexico is "just" 24-7 SU on its home floor since the start of the 2013-14 season, including an 86-57 win over Texas Southern in this year's opener. They were able to put up that many points (admittedly against an overmatched foe) despite missing 12 of 17 three-pointers. They weren't any more efficient from behind the arc against New Mexico State, yet still scored 80+ in that one as well. Just imagine how many they would have scored had they been better from distance! I like what I've seen from the Lobos' starting backcourt - Cullen Neal and Elijah Brown - thus far. The latter scored 31 pts Sunday night and as a duo, they're averaging 43.5 points per game. Look out for big man Sam Longwood, despite a slow start to the season, as well. New Mexico has yet to lose to a Missouri Valley team in the history of this event. Loyola is a relative newcomer to the MVC, having joined back in 2013 after spending time in the Horizon League. They were somewhat of a pointspread juggernaut last season, covering 67 percent of their games, including an incredible 11-2 ATS mark on the road and winning the CBI Tournament. However, I don't see them faring too well in Albuquerque where almost all of those seven UNM home losses I spoke of earlier occurred during last year's very disappointing finish to conference play. Little can be derived from the Ramblers' first two games of the season due to the poor quality of competition, but they did fail to cover at home against UTSA. 8* New Mexico |
|||||||
11-18-15 | Nuggets +13.5 v. Spurs | Top | 98-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
8* Denver (8:35 ET): For years, I've pointed to the fact that teams playing in the second night of a back to back are generally undervalued and that's what we have here as the Nuggets, fresh off a win last night, take the court in San Antonio. As a generous six-point dog, Denver downed New Orleans on Tuesday, 115-98 as the struggling Pelicans lost Anthony Davis to an injury in the first quarter. It would be easy to simply "write off" the Nuggets victory as a byproduct of that injury, but they were actually outplaying the Pelicans when Davis was on the floor. That was Denver's fourth win in its last five games, surprising, considering where most though this team would be at the start of the year. I've got no problem grabbing the big number here though. San Antonio, as expected, is one of the league's two best teams (only Golden State rated higher). Their only loss since Opening Night (at full-strength Oklahoma City) came on a buzzer-beater at Washington. Since then, they've won five straight, all by nine or more points. In four home games this season, they're holding the opposition to an average of just 83 points per game! That said, they just got done playing Portland and Philadelphia, two of the worst teams in the entire league. Denver isn't likely to become a playoff team "overnight," but they should at least give the Spurs a better fight than past opponents have. Also, the Spurs' offense has struggled shooting the ball those L2 games, connecting on only 40.8 percent of their attempts from the field. The Nuggets lost all four meetings to the Spurs last season and are 0-7 SU against them the past two seasons. But double digits is a lot to lay in today's NBA and Denver has gone 5-3 ATS when taking 12.5 or more points since the start of last season. Earlier this season, they covered at Golden State. This will be the fourth time so far that the Spurs have been asked to lay 12 or more pts and while they've gone 2-1 ATS, those previous three instances were all against teams weaker than the Nuggets. San Antonio is just 15-16 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less in its previous game. 8* Denver |
|||||||
11-18-15 | Kings v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:05 ET): What am I missing here? Why is this line so low? You're telling me that the Hawks are now perceived to be basically even w/ the Kings on a neutral floor? That's what this line is saying. My own personal power ratings have Atlanta favored by significantly more, even w/o starters Jeff Teague and Kent Bazemore in the lineup. Granted, the Hawks aren't exactly "flying high" right now (three-game losing streak), but they should certainly be hungry after suffering an embarrassing defeat last night in Brooklyn (5th straight ATS loss). They've won 14 straight over Sacramento (league's longest active head to head win streak!) while covering the last four and the result should be no different here. Lay the points. About a week ago, the Kings held one of those "players-only" meetings as they seemed to be on the verge of implosion w/ star player DeMarcus Cousins and HC George Karl butting heads. The aftermath of that meeting has seen the team win three straight, so some of the more foolish "talking heads" will probably want to label this as some sort of "turnaround." I don't; rather it just points to the fact the team had been underachieving previously. Also, all three wins came at home where Sacramento typically plays a lot better. This team is just 22-62 SU on the road the last 2+ seasons and this year finds itself allowing a frightening 116 PPG away from home. Granted, that's just two games, but it also speaks volumes that the Kings' overall record isn't better considering they've played 9 of 11 games at home. The last two were both close calls as well. Sunday night, they trailed Toronto heading into the fourth quarter. Coming off a SU win as a dog, the Kings are a woeful 9-21 ATS. Atlanta has been struggling its last five games, but the last two have been losses by a combined three points. Last night in Brooklyn, they held the biggest lead of the game (8 pts), but managed to lose a back and forth affair due to a season-high 20 turnovers. You can obviously point to the absence of Teague for that happening, but really it's just overall carelessness, something I expect to be corrected here. Playing back to back nights hasn't bothered the Hawks so far this season as they've gone 3-0 SU in that situation. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
11-17-15 | Raptors v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:35 ET): The Warriors laying single digits at home? Thank you linesmakers! Honestly, unless they're playing San Antonio, there isn't a single team (maybe Cleveland?) that the defending champs shouldn't be laying at least 10 to here at Oracle Arena. Toronto, after starting the season a perfect 5-0 straight up/against the spread, has just two wins in its last six games and those came at the expense of two teams (New Orleans, Philadelphia) that are a combined 1-20 SU right now. They just lost outright in Sacramento Sunday night, an ominous sign as they embark on a five-game West Coast swing. Consider that last year the Dubs beat the Raptors twice by 20+ points. Lay the number. As you know, Golden State is off to a perfect 11-0 start. They have failed to cover the spread only four times, three of which came as favorites of -14 or higher. The other was a game vs. the rival Clippers. Strangely, their closest call of the season came last time out, against Brooklyn of all teams. Despite shooting only 41.9 percent from the field, the Nets somehow took the Warriors into overtime before eventually losing 107-99. Really, it all boiled down to Brooklyn jumping out to a 36-21 lead after one quarter. But as simple math will tell you, the Warriors outscored the Nets by 23 the rest of the way and their YTD point differential remains at +16.3 points per game. So, again, laying single digits here seems like a really nice value. Toronto hasn't exactly been taking on the best of the best these last six games and yet has produced a losing record. They've lost at both Orlando and Sacramento, two teams that weren't even in playoff contention in year ago and also got blown out (by 20) at Miami. They allowed the Kings to shoot 51.3% Sunday, a season-high for an opponent, and got outscored 16-2 to end the game. I suppose one could turn that around and point out the Raptors easily could have won, but the fact they lost despite shooting 15 of 33 from three-point range is a BAD sign, especially when getting set to "step up" in competition like they are here. I think that Golden State's close call vs. the Nets has driven this line down way too far and, oh by the way, the Warriors are 17-5 ATS the L3 seasons when taking the court w/ exactly two days rest. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
11-17-15 | Nebraska +17 v. Villanova | Top | 63-87 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (8:30 ET): Though it ended earlier (as per usual) than expected (lost in Rd of 32), #11 Villanova had quite the season last year. Jay Wright's Wildcats went a full two months w/o losing a game at one point and finished 25-10 against the spread, for one of the best marks vs. the number in the entire country. In fact, 'Nova is now 47-20 ATS the last two seasons, which is well over 67 percent and thus pretty unsustainable moving forward. This year's team lost three key pieces from the squad that finished 33-3 SU last year and though a 91-54 win over Farleigh Dickenson in the opener looks nice, all that's done is further drive up the number as the Wildcats get set to face their first "real" opponent of the season, that being Nebraska. The Cornhuskers scored nearly 100 pts in their opener & I'm taking the points. Villanova should once again rule the Big East this season. But I do expect them to struggle a bit more than expected versus the non-conference slate. This year's team is smaller and lost two of LY's best players (Darrun Hillard and JayVaughn Pinkston) to graduation and another key contributor (Dylan Ennis) transferred to Oregon. Last year's Wildcats were remarkably fortunate on the health front w/ virtually no time lost to injury. While it was a solid all-around performance Friday, I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that result as FDU shot an abysmal 27 percent from the floor. Considering Nebraska shot 10 of 22 from three-point range in its opening game, I do not expect them to struggle as much against the zone defense. It was a 97-51 win over Mississippi Valley State for Nebraska in its season opener, the program's highest scoring game in nearly a decade. While the Cornhuskers are coming off a losing campaign in 2014-15 and saw their leading scorer depart for the NBA, there is still reason for optimism in Lincoln. HC Tim Miles brought in a key transfer from Kansas, Andrew White III, who led the way w/ 18 points on Saturday. This team has the necessary size and length to bother Villanova offensively. Look for the underdog to come out and give the favorite all it can handle Tuesday night. 10* Nebraska |
|||||||
11-17-15 | Wolves v. Heat -8.5 | Top | 103-91 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
8* Miami (7:35 ET): Quietly, the Heat have morphed back into a top ten team in this league. At least that's what my own personal power ratings say as only Cleveland is better in the Eastern Conference and just a handful of teams from the West can say the same. The key has been defense. No team is allowing fewer points per game (90.2) right now and that's been the driving force behind the fact they have gone Under in eight consecutive games. Only once has Miami allowed 100+ in a game this season and that was 102 to Cleveland. They've won three in a row, allowing 76, 88 and 91 points respectively and I really like their chances of "putting the clamps down" on a young Minnesota team that has lost four in a row, here tonight. Lay the points. The T'wolves have been a bit of a surprise thus far, especially being a perfect 5-0 against the spread on the road. They'd actually won each of their first four games away from home, all as the underdog, before bowing out to Indiana last week, 107-103 (still covered at +7.5). However, we're starting to see clear signs of regression, most notably on the defensive end where they've allowed 112.2 PPG their last five contests. On the offensive end of the floor, I do not anticipate them continuing to maintain their current scoring average of 103.1 PPG. Consider that Minnesota's lowest scoring game of the season (84 points) came against this Miami squad, back on November 5th. The spread for that game was 4 points, so w/ the Heat winning by 12 there, it's rather curious that the line isn't higher here, factoring in the change in venues. Both Dwyane Wade and Gerald Green should be back in the lineup tonight for Miami, so the team should be even stronger than it's been of late. Meanwhile, Minnesota looks to again be w/o starting PG Ricky Rubio for a fifth straight game and they've yet to win with him out of the lineup. Considering the T'wolves just allowed the Grizzlies to shoot better than 56 percent from the floor on Sunday, the Heat should have no problem scoring in this one. Honestly, I cannot believe this line isn't double digits, which is where I expected it to be. 8* Miami |
|||||||
11-17-15 | Duke +2.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-74 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
8* Duke (7:30 ET): We certainly didn't have to wait long for a Top 5 matchup this College Basketball season, did we? This is a battle of LY's actual National Champ (Duke) vs. the team that was "supposed" to win it (Kentucky) and while Coach K's most ardent followers might like to imagine a world where his program resembles some "purer form" of the sport compared to John Calipari's Kentucky teams, that's simply not the case. In fact, one could argue that the Blue Devils are now doing a better job of taking advantage of the so-called "one and done" rule than UK. Loaded recruiting classes have these two again poised to compete for the national championship. My take here though is that while Kentucky is almost automatically favored every time out, Duke has passed them and is the better team getting points here. In fact, the Blue Devils are an impressive 7-1 against the spread when taking points the past two seasons. They have won six of those games outright and in taking them here, you have to assume a cover = outright win. Now Duke certainly was not an underdog in either of its first two games this year, wins over Bryant and Siena by a combined 56 points where they've topped 90 pts both times. Might the Blue Devils be getting a break defensively in this one, however? So far, they have allowed 47.6% shooting from three-point range, but Kentucky has struggled from distance at only 28.9%. That's a far cry from Duke's own 50.0 percent shooting from behind the arc the last game. Kentucky has lost three of the past four matchups w/ Duke and like the Blue Devils struggled a bit more than was anticipated in the season opener, a 78-65 win over Albany. The New Jersey Institute of Technology provided less resistance in a 30-point Wildcats' victory on Saturday, but still, Coach Cal's team has a lower margin of victory to this point than does Duke, thus I feel the line has the wrong team favored. Not to mention, Duke is 32-3 SU its L35 non-conference games (22-12 ATS) and 31-3 SU after scoring 80+ points (22-11 ATS). It being so early in the season, teams w/ this much new talent are somewhat of "crapshoots," but I expect the defending champs to be more "big game ready" at this juncture. 8* Duke |
|||||||
11-16-15 | Rice v. San Francisco -5 | Top | 54-80 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:00 ET): Rice was not a good team last year. The Owls finished 12-20 SU, although they were outscored by less than two points per game and actually went 17-9 at the betting window. There was some promise coming into this season, but that went "out the window" w/ two key injuries, one to junior Marcus Jackson, who was started in all but one game LY and was expected to be their leading scorer TY. The result was a starting five was in major flux coming into the season opener Thursday at California and things got downright ugly there as they fell by 32. Given that result, I don't think the Owls are adequately priced here, especially considering an 0-5 ATS mark as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points the last two seasons. Lay the points. San Francisco got its season off to a nice start w/ a 78-75 road win over IL-Chicago and I like their chances here as the Dons won while shooting only 38.1 percent. USF isn't expected to be a player in the WCC this year and might not be even close to as formidable an opponent as Cal was for Rice, but playing at home and laying a short number seems ideal given that they were already able to win on the road. When they are favored, the Dons typically take care of business, going 21-10 SU the L3 years and the number here is so short that I'm not really concerned about it "coming into play." This team left a LOT of points on the table Friday at UIC due to missed free throws (went 22 of 39 from the charity stripe!) and coupled w/ the poor overall shooting, I'd expect a big bounce back night offensive against a Rice team that allowed Cal to shoot better than 50 percent from the floor. More troubling for Rice is that they were 6 for 17 on three-pointers Friday, meaning they were just 16 for 43 inside the arc, which is beyond hideous. They were outscored by 16 in each half, another bad sign, and at no point were they competitive. Back to back road trips out West to start the season is not favorable, especially short-handed, and I'm just not sure where the points come from for the Owls right now. This is a team that's won just 6 of its last 28 road games overall. 8* San Francisco |
|||||||
11-16-15 | Celtics +5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:05 ET): I think that the wrong team may be favored here. The Rockets, who are being outscored by nearly seven points per game this season, have dropped three in a row - all as favorites. I went against them on Saturday as they fell here at home to Dallas, 110-98 (closed -7.5), which dropped them to 1-5 ATS when laying points and 1-5 ATS at the Toyota Center as well. It was also their fourth double digit loss of the season already, which is an alarming number. Boston, undervalued simply because they played last night, has been the much better of the two teams in the early part of the season and is the play here. Take the points. The Celtics, now 4-1 SU/ATS their last five games, are coming off an impressive 100-85 win in Oklahoma City on Sunday. Yes, the Thunder didn't have Kevin Durant, but it was a spot I expected Boston to fail in nevertheless. The Celtics actually trailed by seven at the half, but stormed back and dominated the fourth quarter, outscoring OKC 28-11. This is a team that has a variety of contributors; last night it was Marcus Smart leading the way w/ a season-high 26 points, one of four Celts in double digits. It's been back to back double-digit victories for Boston, over Atlanta & OKC, yet they're still undervalued due to playing w/o rest. But that's just fine by me as this team is an outstanding 27-11 against the spread when taking the court for the second time in as many nights. As a road underdog of 3.5 to 5 points, they are on a 10-5 ATS run. This is really a great value on the team that's playing better right now. Meanwhile, the Rockets have been just awful on the defensive end, giving up an average of 108.3 points per game. Only two teams - the Wizards and Pelicans (similar disappointments) - are giving up more currently. I jumped all over the other side Saturday when they elected not to play Dwight Howard in the second game of a back to back. It wasn't just the defense that was bad against the Mavs either; James Harden was a woeful 5 for 21 shooting and the team finished at only 38.1 percent from the floor, including 9 of 34 from three-point range. Houston, who has allowed 100+ points in every game this season, has yet to win when not hitting triple-digits themselves. That's problematic against a Celtics squad that is allowing just 92.2 PPG its L5. 10* Boston |
|||||||
11-16-15 | Thunder +2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Both of these teams played Sunday, yet experienced very different results. Memphis picked up a much needed win (just their 5th of the season) in Minnesota, beating the T'wolves 114-106. Oklahoma City blew a seven-point halftime lead and ended up losing by double digits to Boston at home (scored only 11 fourth quarter points). Obviously, there's still no Kevin Durant for the Thunder, but I think they'll be just fine here as they're clearly having a better season so far compared to the Grizzlies. OKC had won three in a row - all by double digits - prior to last night's loss. For awhile, it appeared as if they were headed for a fourth straight DD win. They even led by 11 early in the third quarter before the wheels fell off. Russell Westbrook, as you may have guessed, didn't play well down the stretch and wasn't getting much help. The team shot a season-low 36.4 percent from the field, including just 6 of 25 from three-point range. Still though, I'm not convinced that the Thunder should be an underdog in this spot. Collectively, they should be better at the offensive end tonight and individually, Westbrook should have a better game. Coming off a SU loss as a favorite, OKC is 68-39 against the spread. They are averaging 110.1 PPG, second most in the entire league, trailing only Golden State. Memphis, on the other hand, is nowhere near as prolific offensively. Before yday's win, they were shooting a league-low 40.1 percent from the floor and their 93.4 PPG scoring average is ahead of only winless Philadelphia. Here at home, they're averaging just 90.5 PPG. Needless to say, I don't see the Grizz matching Sunday's 56.4 shooting percentage (season-high). They used to be able to "hang their hat" on the defensive end, but there have been issues on that end of the floor as well. They've allowed 100+ in three straight games and this is a team that's already suffered five double digit losses this season, two of them (to Cleveland & Golden State) by a combined 80 points! They have simply not performed well against the better teams on the schedule. Take the points. 8* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
11-15-15 | Loyola Marymount +14.5 v. UC-Irvine | Top | 53-77 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* Loyola Marymount (8:00 ET): This is a revenge spot for the underdog Lions, who are taking a generous number to boot. Last season saw them lose, as eight-point home underdogs, 80-72 to the Anteaters. So it was a push. Here, I expect better as LMU got away w/ shooting 34.7% from the floor in the season opener Friday, still beating Cal Irvine's conference rival Cal Fullerton, 79-74 as two-point home chalk. Meanwhile, Cal Irvine is highly unlikely to match their own offensive production from Friday as they shot at a ridiculous 62% clip in an 89-72 win against overmatched Cal San Diego, a Division II squad. I'm taking the points here. Loyola Marymount led their opener 41-31 and held off a late rally thanks to reserve Adom Jacko coming off the bench to post a double-double (22 pts, 12 rebounds). This is a team that did not finish last year strong (lost last seven games) to finish 8-23 SU (4-14 in conf play) and they weren't particularly good at the betting window either, going 14-15-1 ATS. But, on paper, this year's squad appears to be much improved. A number of junior college transfers have come aboard in HC Mike Dunlap's second year at the helm. The Lions went 8-5 ATS as road dogs last year, including 5-3 in the regular season when taking double digits. UC Irvine made the NCAA Tournament last year and almost upset Louisville in the Round of 64. So they come into 2015-16 w/ high hopes. But they appear overvalued in this situation. They were 62.1 percent against the spread last season, so it's easy to understand why. But they were just 5-6 ATS home & it was only a March surge that brought them to such overall profitability. They led LMU, wire to wire, last year, but never by the amount the oddsmakers are calling for here. This should be a close game throughout. 10* Loyola Marymount |
|||||||
11-15-15 | Jazz +5.5 v. Hawks | Top | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
8* Utah (6:05 ET): This has been a tough road trip for the Jazz, who have lost all three games thus far coming into the finale Sunday at Atlanta. The first two games, against Cleveland and Miami, were both close throughout, but then playing for a third time in four nights proved to be too tough as they fell way behind Orlando early on Friday. A late rally made things look a tad bit more respectable, but the bottom line is I expect the Quinn Snyder's team to be quite hungry this evening. They look like a really solid value plus the points here, not only because I actually have them rated higher than Atlanta, but also the Hawks have failed to cover their last three games, all as favorites. Take the points. I played against the Hawks their last time out, the result there being a 106-93 at Boston as a 1-pt favorite. They were dominated on the boards and had to play w/o their coach Mike Budenholzer due to a medical issue w/ his wife. They'll be w/o Budenholzer again here and if the Boston game is any indication, that's going to be trouble. Of late, the team just hasn't been playing well as they trailed Minnesota by as many as 30 - at home - before having to hold off an Anthony Davis-less New Orleans team as well. Over their L5 games, Atlanta is allowing 107 points per game w/ opponents shooting 47.9 percent. They are 2-4 ATS at home this year, losing outright twice, and four wins have been by six points or less. Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league; in fact they came into Friday #1 in the league in points allowed. Neither Rudy Gobert nor Rodney Hood were on the floor Friday due to respective injuries and their statuses are still in question for Sunday. But with or without, the Jazz should play much better than they did against the Magic. I have to imagine that they will see their overall shooting percentage (42.2%) start to rise. HC Snyder even admitted his team was "on fumes" vs. Orlando, so after being off Saturday, I expect a much sharper effort here. The Jazz had covered six of seven, including four straight, prior to losing to the Magic. They are a perfect 3-0 ATS as dogs this season. 8* Utah |
|||||||
11-14-15 | Cavs -5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:35 ET): I took a 'push' on Cleveland last night, but for many the ATS result may very well have been a loss as they were bet up from the opening line of -6 against the Knicks (won 90-84). That would make it six straight non-covers for the Cavaliers following a 3-0 ATS start (were underdogs twice!), but remember that they've generally been asked to lay large numbers at the betting window. Despite being injured (no Kyrie Irving & Iman Shumpert), they continue to take care of business, winning eight straight against lesser competition. A weak early season slate continues tonight w/ a visit to Milwaukee and I see the Cavs covering here against a Bucks team that has certainly regressed from LY's campaign where they covered over 55% of their games. Lay the points. For a third time in this package, we have the road team being undervalued because of a back to back scenario. Cleveland, in stark contrast to last season, is almost "under the radar" right now but owns the Eastern Conference's best scoring margin (+8.3 points per game), which is what you'd expect. Looking at the upcoming schedule, a case can certainly be made that they could be 13-1 heading into a game at Toronto the day before Thanksgiving. While the hole the team dug itself in last night vs. the Knicks is a bit concerning, they again showed they have little difficulty coming from behind. That, of course, can be a bit problematic when laying points, but if we get a complete game here from LeBron and company, then the Cavs will cover this number w/ plenty of room to spare. Milwaukee has also played a light schedule this year, but they have only four wins and three came at the expense of either Brooklyn or Philadelphia, the two consensus worst teams in the league right now. Three times this season, the Bucks have dropped a game by 15+ points. They are coming off a one-point loss in Denver Wednesday and that was while shooting a season-best 53.2% from the floor. This is a much better defensive team that they face tonight as last night saw Cleveland hold the Knicks to just 12 fourth quarter points. Of course, there's no debate who the better offensive team is here either. The Cavs are 12-5 ATS after holding their previous opponent to 85 pts or less. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
11-14-15 | Mavs +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:05 ET): Here, we have another undervalued team, fueled by revenge, that is being undervalued due to the back to back scenario. The Mavericks won last night, 90-82 over the lowly Lakers (as 7.5-pt favorites), and despite the perception (largely correct) that this team is not as good as it once was, I believe they are in line to starting being undervalued on a game by game basis. Last season, Dallas was one of the worst ATS teams in the league (42.2%) while Houston was the most profitable to bet on (59.2%). But the Rockets certainly appear to have taken a big step back this season as they are only 3-6 vs. the number, including B2B outright losses to Brooklyn and Denver. Take the points here. The Rockets played last night as well, losing in Denver 107-98 as 6.5-pt chalk. There was a thought that Dwight Howard might be rested Friday, but he played, scoring 12 points and grabbing 10 rebounds, and the team still lost. Now he's likely to miss this game, a huge break for the underdog Mavericks, who are looking to snap a 1-6 SU/ATS slide here in Houston. Remember that the Rockets eliminated the Mavs from LY's playoffs, a fact that I'm sure won't be lost on the Dallas players. Looking at just this season, it's hard to make a case for Houston to even be favored here as they are now giving up 108.1 points per game and are being outscored by 6.3 points on a per game basis. They're only 1-4 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS when favored. Meanwhile, the Mavs have had a much better week than the Rockets, beating the Clippers and Lakers at home by a combined 18 points. Last night, they finally got almost a full game from Chandler Parsons, who played both halves last night for the first time all season. Unfortunately, that means that he's unlikely to play tonight, but I still think they'll do just fine by leaning on the emerging ZaZa Pachulia (really!) as their "consolation prize" signing ("Plan B" after being spurned by DeAndre Jordan) is averaging a double-double thus far. In addition to being woeful defensively, Houston continues to turn the ball over way too much (20+ three times in the L5 games). 8* Dallas |
|||||||
11-14-15 | Magic +6 v. Wizards | Top | 99-108 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:00 ET): Washington has beaten the Magic nine straight times, not losing to them once in the past three seasons. In every one of those matchups, including an 88-87 (-4) win in this season's opener, the Wizards were considered to be the better team. The linesmakers are sticking w/ that thought process here, but even in D.C., I'm not entirely sure that I agree. Orlando did cover the season opener and overall have been the better team this season as they're now a league-best 8-2 ATS (5-5 SU) following an impressive 102-93 win over a good Utah team last night. The oddsmakers' unwillingness to favor the Magic this season (happened only two times) again works in our favor tonight. Take the points. Orlando didn't need Victor Oladipo (concussion) yday as they became just the second team (besides Cleveland) to score 100+ against a Jazz team that came in #1 in the NBA in points allowed. That game was virtually "over before it started" as the Magic opened on a 16-2 run, were up 33-15 after the first quarter and led by as many as 23 in the fourth quarter. A late and relatively meaningless Utah rally made the game seem closer than it actually was, so perhaps that and certainly the fact the Magic are playing in the second game of a back to back have them severely undervalued here. I'm not saying that they SHOULD be favored here (although my secondary power ratings say they should be!), but my main ratings say the line should be much lower. They are 2-0 ATS so far w/o rest, 7-1 ATS as a dog and have big-time revenge. It's not just Orlando that should be lauded here, but Washington needs to be criticized. The Wizards promised to play at a faster pace in the preseason, but so far all that's delivered is a 5-1-1 Over record as they're giving up a whopping 110.4 points per game, which is second most only behind similarly disappointing New Orleans. Take away the win over Orlando and that number jumps to 114.3 PPG allowed. They just gave up 37 points in the first quarter and 68 in the first half of a 24-point home loss to Oklahoma City Tuesday. Orlando, who has had no such issues defensively (94.6 PPG allowed L5), should certainly improve upon its 12 of 32 shooting in the paint from last night and more good news is that the Thunder were 15 of 23 from three-point range against the Wizards, who may be w/o Bradley Beal here. You could certainly argue that the Magic are the better team right now whether or not the Wiz have Beal in the lineup. 8* Orlando |
|||||||
11-13-15 | Cal Poly v. UNLV -7 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
8* UNLV (10:00 ET): Cal Poly projects to be a player in the Big West this season, but this isn't a conference game to open the season and quite frankly, I think the line is way too low. UNLV has underachieved the last couple of years under HC Dave Rice, but should be much better this season as it's the most talented Rebels team in years. Last year, they closed the regular season on a nice 11-2 ATS run & three of their MWC losses were to champ San Diego State by a combined 11 pts. This year's team has one of the best big men in the country in Stephen Zimmerman, Jr, who some are comparing to the NBA's Greg Monroe. I say lay the points here. UNLV does not have an easy non-conference slate. They play UCLA, Oregon, Arizona and Wichita State to name a few, so a blowout win on Opening Night seems like a necessity. While the Rebels will be "stepping up" (to face the bigger Pac 12 teams) in the coming weeks, it's their opponent stepping up here and the Mustangs simply haven't performed well in the past against the Mountain West, going 2-11-1 ATS the L14 games against the conference, including 0-4 the L3 seasons. They have lost all 14 games straight up. Out West, it's a pretty simple pecking order: Pac 12 > Mountain West > Big West. For a team from the better conference to only be laying single digits, on its home floor, it seems like a steal. Especially when you consider UNLV is on a 31-6 SU/23-14 ATS run as a favorite. Cal Poly only won 13 games a year ago and had its fair share of issues on offense, averaging just 60.4 PPG for the season. On the road, that number got even lower and they really struggled to put the ball in the hoop down the stretch, averaging only 52.4 PPG the final five games (all losses). They should struggle here as well against a UNLV team that allowed just 59.1 PPG at home last season. Four times in conference play last season, the Mustangs failed to score even 50 points. Yes, they return their top five scorers from 2014-15, but I'm not sure that will be enough to compete when stepping up in class, particularly w/ the team looking to adjust its pace of play this season. 8* UNLV |
|||||||
11-13-15 | Eastern Washington v. Mississippi State -10 | Top | 88-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
10* Mississippi State (9:00 ET): Mississippi State did not finish last season strong as they went just 3-8 SU from February 1st on and that ended up costing former HC Rick Ray his job. In steps Ben Howland, who is a wonderful hire here despite the bitter taste from the way things ended for him at UCLA. Howland inherits a pretty talented team here in Starkville and brings in top recruit Malik Newman, who some are projecting to be an All-American candidate in his freshman season. The Bulldogs had a losing ATS record last year, but were better than their SU record showed as half of the team's losses came by six points or less. I look for them to start the season w/ a big win over Eastern Washington, who is making a long and tough trip here. Lay the points. Howland has already changed the mood around Starkville and the team has yet to even take the floor. Recruiting is going well for next season and this year's team could end up finishing #2 in the SEC (behind Kentucky obviously). Some may take this line is putting "the cart before the horse," (MSU has been favored only 11x the L2 seasons and LY was asked to lay DD only 3x), but I do not. Howland has four starters back, three of them seniors, so this is a veteran-laden team. Their backcourt projects to be very good w/ Newman and last year's leading scorer Craig Sword. As for Eastern Washington, they were in the NCAA Tournament last year, but must replace their leading scorer Tyler Harvey, who didn't just lead the team, but the entire nation w/ 22.9 points per game! That's clearly a big void to fill. I've seen them projected outside the top 200 teams in the country, which is a scary thought for taking their act out East so early in the season. The Eagles did not play a single opponent the caliber of Mississippi State last year, save for Georgetown in the Big Dance and the result there was a 10-point loss on a neutral floor. There will be growing pains early in the season for EWU and this certainly has the potential to be their worst loss of the entire season. They allowed 77.2 PPG away from home last year. 10* Mississippi State |
|||||||
11-13-15 | 76ers v. Thunder -13.5 | Top | 85-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): It's still really early in the season, so we can still find a ton of value in some situations as oddsmakers scramble to gain a proper read on some of these teams. One such situation presents itself tonight and surprisingly it's with a team being asked to lay double digits. Oklahoma City might be w/o Kevin Durant right now, but they certainly won't need his services to get by lowly Philadelphia, who is now the league's only winless team and struggling to even remain competitive on a nightly basis. The 76ers' rating isn't nearly low enough right now as they should prob be a DD dog to almost every team, at least on the road. This line should be closer to -19 according to my own power ratings! Lay the points. The Thunder are no strangers to being without Durant. He missed a total of 55 games last year, which is why they ended up missing the playoffs. The good news, if you can call it that, is they should be used to this. Philadelphia should certainly provide little in the way of resistance as well as they've lost all eight games by an average of 13.6 PPG. Their last two games saw them lose by a combined 39 points and both were at home. OKC, admittedly w/ Durant, comes off B2B 20+ pt wins over Phoenix & Washington. Not only are the Sixers an astounding 0-33 SU as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the last three seasons, but they have a losing ATS record in the situation, including 4-11 vs. the number when priced between +12.5 and +15. Look for Enes Kanter's offensive numbers to go up immediately. He averaged 18.7 PPG w/ Durant out of the lineup last season. But obviously it will be Russell Westbrook shouldering the load. He comes off his first triple-double of the season Wednesday & was one of three Thunder players to score 20+ against the Wizards, none of them named "Durant." OKC has scored 249 points its L2 games and that's bad news for a Philly squad that averages only 92.9 PPG and is coming off its worst defensive performance of the season as well (allowed 119 pts to Toronto). They are dealing w/ a ton of injuries right now, including Nerlens Noel's wrist. Look for a blowout here. 8* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
11-13-15 | Cavs -6 v. Knicks | Top | 90-84 | Push | 0 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): While my own personal power rankings don't suggest that this is necessarily a great value play, nor does the fact the Cavs failed to cover a 10.5-pt spot at home against the Knicks earlier in the year (won by only 10), I'm going to lay the points here. LeBron and company have failed to cover five in a row after opening 3-0 ATS (underdogs twice), but were asked to lay double digits three times during that stretch. New York has been competitive (4-4 SU) and did lead the Cavaliers 46-38 at the half, in Cleveland, back on November 4th. However, they are off a tough loss (buzzer-beater waved off) Wednesday in Charlotte and that might be difficult to overcome. The Cavs are in line for a big win. Cleveland has played an admittedly weak schedule to this point, but has done so short-handed. They pulled out an impressive 118-114 home win over Utah on Tuesday, an offensive performance that is quite impressive when you consider that the Jazz lead the league defensively in terms of points per game allowed (90.0). Taking the floor w/ exactly two days rest has been a profitable situation for these Cavaliers the past three seasons, going 17-10 against the spread. This team has shot 50% or better from the floor in three of its last five games and James has been just as efficient as ever. Even w/o Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert, this is a deeper team than last year and not as reliant on LeBron. Kevin Love, in particular, has played well. He has B2B 22-point games and Mo Williams has been a nice addition as well. The Knicks have had their share of issues in the fourth quarter, getting outscored 26-17 by the Cavs in the first meeting and then 26-14 by Charlotte in a two-point loss Wednesday. As a team, they have yet to shoot 50% or better in any game this season and were a woeful 27% in the 4Q vs. the Hornets. After opening 2-1 SU, New York has dropped four of six w/ its two wins, one of them at home against the Lakers, coming by a combined six points. They are a woeful 33-53 ATS at home the L3 seasons, including 3-10 as a dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
11-13-15 | Hawks v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 93-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): The Celtics let me down on Wednesday by losing here at home to Indiana, 102-91 as 3.5-pt favorites. Perhaps it was the fact they were playing in the second night of a back to back, but Boston fell into an early hole (trailed by 8 after 1Q) and never really recovered. However, it's not like they didn't have an opportunity to come back. It certainly didn't help that they shot a woeful 4 of 24 from three-point range, plus they missed 7 of 19 free throw attempts in the third quarter alone. I expect a bounce back type performance tonight. Atlanta, though off a win Weds vs. New Orleans and 8-2 SU for the season, should not be favored here according to my personal power rankings. Take the points. The Hawks were a victim of the public betting the number up on Wednesday as they couldn't cover the number against New Orleans, who was w/o Anthony Davis. In fact, they trailed by nine at halftime and led by just one entering the fourth quarter. So, really, they never were even in position to cover against the Davis-less Pelicans. Poor starts have been the story the past two games for Atlanta as earlier in the week they fell into a 30-point hole, at home, vs. Minnesota. Boston is the toughest opponent that the Hawks will have faced since a narrow road win over Miami. They are just 4-7 ATS after playing three consecutive home games and have played four of their previous five at home. They are the Eastern Conference's lone unbeaten team on the road (4-0), which won't last. I was impressed by Evan Turner's play for the Celtics Wednesday as he was thrust into the starting lineup and scored 20 points, a season-high. Backcourt mate Isaiah Thomas, the team's leading scorer w/ 20.6 PPG, scored a season-low 14 pts however, but I'd expect better production here. We should see improved shooting across the board for the Celtics here as the Hawks allowed the T'wolves to shoot 57.5 percent from the field. Meanwhile, Atlanta is highly unlikely to maintain its current 104.4 points per game scoring average. These teams played two close games last year, including a Boston 89-88 win here at home. 8* Boston |
|||||||
11-12-15 | Clippers -2 v. Suns | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clips failed to cover the spread yet again last night, this time losing the game outright (in Dallas). That made me happy as I was on the Mavs, who were taking a generous +7 in an emotional game for them because of the DeAndre Jordan situation. Seeing as they'd already beaten the Mavs earlier in the year, the game likely wasn't as big of a deal for Los Angeles. Unrested, LA is undervalued tonight visting Phoenix, who is off B2B losses, the most recent coming by 21 points at Oklahoma City on Sunday. I went against the Suns in that one and will do the same here as I think the Clips are far more likely to turn around their early season ATS woes. They're the far better team. Overall, the Clippers have failed to cover five of the last six games. But they've been a "medium-sized" favorite or higher in all of those non-covers. (The one ATS win came as an underdog in a loss at Golden State.) They were nine-point home favorites over Phoenix (won by six) back on 11.2, which at the time had them at 4-0 straight up. They did build a lead as big as 11 points in beating the Suns for an eighth straight time. With lower lines, the Clippers are not only 4-0 straight up, but 4-0 against the spread their L4 games in Phoenix. Both of last season's wins here came by double digits. I'm not really worried about the Clips being in the second game of a back to back as they've gone 24-14 straight up in that situation the L3 years! Also, they are 29-9 SU when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Last night saw them outshot 55.3 percent (season-worst FG% allowed) to 43.0 percent, so the fact they still kept the game close should be taken as a really positive sign. Three-point shooting and rebounding have been two problems for the Clips this season, but last night they were an encouraging 12 of 27 from behind the arc and they also won the rebounding battle for the first time all season. Phoenix has conceded 119 rebounds its last two games and are allowing opponents to shoot 41.8% from three-point range here at home. Lay the points. 8* LA Clippers |
|||||||
11-12-15 | Jazz v. Heat -5 | Top | 91-92 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): I would much rather watch this game than Golden State-Minnesota tonight on TNT as my power rankings actually suggest this is a matchup of top eight teams in the league! However, it's a tough spot for the visiting Jazz, who two nights ago played a very tough game in Cleveland and came up just four points shy against the favored Cavaliers. They allowed a season-high 118 points in that one and while the Heat may not have LeBron James anymore, they can play defense. In fact, these teams actually rank 1-2 in the league in points per game allowed w/ Utah at 89.7 and Miami at 90.1. The key here though is that the Heat are at home and coming off a much easier game (against the Lakers) on Tuesday. Lay the points. Utah's loss in Cleveland carried an additional cost in that starting center Rudy Gobert injured his ankle and he may not play here. Losing his 3.4 blocks per game would be huge considering the Jazz will have to deal w/ the Heat's own shot-blocker extraordinaire, Hassan Whiteside, who is averaging 3.9 blocks/game to go along w/ solid averages of 15.3 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. Miami's worst defensive effort of the season also came against Cleveland, but they allowed "only" 102 points to the Cavaliers. Since that time, they've kept five of six opponents to 90 points or less, all of those games staying Under the total. The O/U line is very low here and that's a good thing for the Heat as they are 5-1 ATS L3 seasons at home when the total is in the 180 to 184.5-point range. Miami may have missed the playoffs last season, but this is a much improved team this year. Some of that is health as Chris Bosh is back and coming off a season-high 30 points Tuesday. Whiteside's emergence is clearly the driving force on the defensive end. But the fact that Justice Winslow somehow fell to them in the draft was an absolute steal. The numbers suggest that it is when Winslow is on the court that the Heat are at their best defensively. Again, I think Utah left it all on the floor in Cleveland and it's going to be tough for them to play at that level in B2B road games. All five of the Heat's victories this season have been by double digits. 10* Miami |
|||||||
11-11-15 | Clippers v. Mavs +7 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:05 ET): This is another early season revenge game (for the Mavs) and it's a national TV game against the team that "stole" DeAndre Jordan from them over the summer to boot. Yes, I went against Mark Cuban's, pardon me, Rick Carlisle's team last night in New Orleans, but that was a desperate and winless Pelicans team I was playing there. I even cited the potential for a Mavs' look ahead to tonight. Retaining the services of Jordan in the offseason was clearly a win for the Clippers at the expense of the Mavs, and they drew "first blood" on the court w/ a 104-88 win at Staples Center back on October 29th. Don't think for a second that any of this is lost on the Mavs' players, who I think are being severely undervalued here at home tonight. Take the points. In that first meeting, Dallas was playing w/o rest as is the case here as well. But, the difference is that the Mavs were coming off a SU/ATS win (over Phoenix, which I cashed in on!) prior to that first meeting. Last night, they fell into too big of a hole to climb out of (trailed 12-0 out of the gate) and were down by as many as 23 in the second half. At that point, I have to believe their thoughts turned to tonight. This team clearly is not what it once was and will have to fight just to make the playoffs this year. But I can't imagine that a fifth double digit loss is in the cards, particularly because they're unlikely to shoot as poorly here as they did last night (5 of 20 from 3-pt range) or in the first matchup w/ the Clippers (36.1 percent overall). Also, the Mavs have not been a home underdog of this size even once over the past three seasons. Meanwhile, the Clips are just 2-7 ATS as road faves of 6.5 to 9 points and have failed to cover four of five games overall since beating the Mavs. All four ATS losses came as favorites, including just a two-point win at home over Memphis Monday night as seven-point chalk. This will be just their third road game of the season and it's the front end of a back to back (at Phoenix tomm night). All of Los Angeles' games this season, save for the win over Dallas, have been decided by seven points or less. 10* Dallas |
|||||||
11-11-15 | Pelicans +10.5 v. Hawks | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): This is yet another early season revenge spot and I've made the decision to "roll with" the Pelicans with or without Anthony Davis. Of course, I was on them last night as they picked up their first win of the season, 120-105 over Dallas. Encouraging is that they did so w/ Davis sitting out the entire second half and the rest of the team was even able to extend the lead (as high as 23 points) w/ him in the locker room. Davis playing tonight would obviously be a great benefit, but if he doesn't, we'll just be able to get a better line. Take the points. New Orleans lost to Atlanta on Friday, 121-115 at home, despite Davis going for a career-high 43 points. Including last night, the Pelicans have now scored 115 points in regulation three times this season, yet are only 1-6 SU/ATS, which is crazy. It's often said that teams playing in the second night of a back to back are undervalued and you can certainly make that case here considering Atlanta was only an 8.5-point home favorite to what I still consider to be an inferior (compared to New Orleans) Minnesota squad on Monday and the Hawks lost that game, 117-107 after trailing by as many as 30! It's not as if the Pelicans were taken down to the wire last night either; they led 12-0 out of the gate and never trailed. Yes, there's injuries here, but the team is in a good position to cash tonight. Atlanta had won seven in a row prior to losing to the T'wolves Monday night, but this will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any game this season. Four of their wins during the now-ended winning streak came by six points or less. New Orleans remains desperate as they cannot afford to fall too far behind in a very tough Western Conference. The Hawks were expected to take a step back this season, coming off a 60-win campaign in 2014-15. Kent Bazemore really hasn't done a good job filling in for the departed DeMarre Carroll and it really does speak volumes that the team trailed Minnesota by that many points. When New Orleans visited Phillips Arena last season, they were only a 2.5-point dog, so there's value for you right there. 8* New Orleans |
|||||||
11-11-15 | Pacers v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): Last week, these teams played in Indiana and I took the Pacers as a two-point home dog (citing value) in an eventual 100-98 win and cover. Since then, Frank Vogel's team has remained perfect ATS this month (5-0) to increase its November run to 25-8 ATS the L3 seasons. However, it's a "role reversal" here as this time the value is on the revenge-minded Celtics laying a short number at home. Granted, they had to play Tuesday (beat Milwaukee 99-83 on the road), but Indiana is playing for a third time in four nights, thus likely being the more fatigued unit as Boston hadn't played since Friday prior to last night's 'W.' Final result aside, if the Celtics were favored on the road against the Pacers the last time, it stands to reason they should be favored by more here at home. Lay the number. Though they found themselves in an early 10-point hole, it ended up being a close, back & forth game for the Celtics when they played the Pacers last week. The game wasn't decided until a pair of Monta Ellis' free throws in the final 13 seconds and Boston did have the final shot (missed). They held Indiana to only 38.5% shooting (a season-best defensively), but turnovers and rebounding were the stories as the Celts coughed it up a season-worst 19 times in that game and were outscored 24-11 in second-chance points. Indiana was actually the one playing at home and w/o rest last Weds, so the shoe is really "on the other foot" here. Injuries are a bit of a concern for Boston right now, but they managed to turn in another strong effort on the defensive end last night, holding the Bucks to only 83 points. That was their second straight double digit victory as they blew out Washington (by 20) here at home on Friday. Indiana's only loss in November came by four points in Cleveland, so no shame there, plus they responded by becoming the first team this season to cover against Orlando w/ a 97-84 home win (as 4-pt home faves) on Monday. That was just the second time this season that the Pacers were favored and tonight marks just their third road game. Two of their four wins have been by three points or less, so had those results gone the other way, we'd be talking about this team in a very different way right now. The Celtics are an incredibly profitable 27-10 ATS when playing in the second game of a back to back. 8* Boston |
|||||||
11-10-15 | Mavs v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 105-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): As we enter the third week of the NBA season, three teams are still winless. Two are Philadelphia and Brooklyn, which is no surprise seeing as how I have that duo at the bottom of my own personal power rankings. But the other is New Orleans, a major surprise considering the Pelicans came into this year w/ a ton of hype due to Anthony Davis. Tonight marks the Pelicans' second chance at a revenge spot this year. While they failed in the first, that was against Golden State. Tonight, they host Dallas, who beat them 107-98 on Saturday after outscoring NO by 15 in the second half (65 2H points for the Mavs). Simply put, I just cannot see the Pellies continuing to lose like this & I'll call for them to bounce back here. Dallas, while 3-3, is also "down" this year. Coming off a year where they were near the bottom of the league in terms of ATS record, I thought there might be slight improvement there, but the bottom line is this team is definitely worse on the court. Getting left "at the altar" by DeAndre Jordan set the tone for a disappointing summer and you get the sense that this is a roster in decline. Speaking of Jordan, the Mavs get a second shot and him & the Clippers tomorrow night, in a nationally televised game, so this might be a little bit of a lookahead for them. Not so for New Orleans, however, as they are desperate to pick up that first win of the season. The Pelicans were one of the best ATS teams in the league a season ago. The Mavs shot a season best 47.6% from the floor Saturday night, an all-too familiar story for the Pelicans, who are last in the league in points allowed. With Davis in the middle, that should not be happening. Already twice this season, New Orleans has lost a game in which it scored 115 points in regulation! A big part of the problem for the Pelicans has been injuries, but hopefully Jrue Holliday and his 13.0 PPG scoring average will be back in the lineup tonight (sat out Saturday). Interestingly, the Pelicans have been favored in only one game so far. Obviously, they lost it - outright - but still that at least puts the SU record in some context. Look for Davis' play to start improving and for him to lead his team to a win here. 10* New Orleans |
|||||||
11-09-15 | Blazers v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
8* Denver (9:05 ET): Often times, you'll find a team playing in the second night of a back to back undervalued because of the expectation that they'll struggle. That's not the case here though w/ Portland, who is off a brutal loss last night. Leading Detroit by 13 pts going into the fourth quarter, at home, the Blazers were promptly outscored 41-11 over the final 12 minutes w/ the Pistons' Andre Drummond turning in one of the best single-game efforts I've seen all year (29 points, 27 rebounds). I think it's going to be tough for Portland to overcome that defeat, on the road, w/o rest. Denver might be a bottom tier team, but their homecourt advantage is still very real and for years they have dominated unrested visitors here at the Pepsi Center. Lay the short number. Denver has not played since Friday when they covered a large 17-point spread (largest for any NBA game this season) at Golden State (lost by 15). It was their fourth DD loss this season and they have yet to win at home. The big issue in their two previous home games, both against division rivals (Minnesota, Utah), has been poor shooting. They're shot a woeful 34.1 percent overall from the floor in those two losses, a percentage which obviously is in line to go up. This is a team that has not opened a season 0-3 at home in 13 seasons. The last time it happened was the year before they drafted Carmelo Anthony. There were signs of an impending turnaround in the second half vs. the Warriors, whom they outscored 60-45 over the final two quarters while shooting 51.1 percent. Even though it was a loss, Portland actually shot a season-best 53.3 percent from floor last night. But that's a bad sign for tonight as they're unlikely to duplicate. Let's remember that this is a team that's had to replace four starters from last season, most notably LaMarcus Aldridge. I'm surprised to see that they've started 4-3 SU as they were projected for below 30 wins by the oddsmakers. This is already the third time they've been asked to play back to backs and while they're 1-1 SU/ATS in the situation so far, this is the first time they have to play the second game on the road. As a road dog of three points or less, the Blazers are 6-12 ATS L3 seasons while the Nuggets are 6-3 ATS laying three or less at home. 8* Denver |
|||||||
11-08-15 | Suns v. Thunder -8 | Top | 103-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (7:05 ET): After opening up 3-0, the Thunder have lost three in a row, all by six points or less. They do only have one blowout win to their credit, that being here at home over lowly Denver, but tonight should be another as they've had two days off to prepare for a Phoenix team that I have little regard for. The Suns are off a loss too, which snapped a four-game ATS win streak. The loss came at home, to Detroit, 100-92 as four-point chalk. Other than a home and home sweep of Portland (four new starters this year), the Suns have just one win to their credit, at the expense of Sacramento. Last year, when the Thunder were more depleted, they still managed to take three of four matchups w/ the Suns. Lay the points. Defensively, OKC has had its issues thus far. The Denver game was the only time that they allowed fewer than 100 pts this year. Fortunately though, Phoenix has had its share of issues offensively this season. They shot just 40.2 percent overall against the Pistons. In fact, that Sacramento game was the only time this year that the Suns have shot better than 45% in a game. Twice they've been below 40 percent. I just don't see them keeping pace w/ a Thunder squad that will have the two best players on the floor (Durant, Westbrook) Oklahoma City averaged 122.7 PPG in its three wins and their dynamic duo is averaging 57 points per game. There have also been no offensive issues in the past for the Thunder when facing the Suns. They've topped 102 in 17 of the last 18 matchups, including all four last year, and are 14-3 SU the L17 overall. One big key advantage here for Oklahoma City is that they are leading the league in three-point percentage at 39.2. It's been tough competition the L3 games for OKC; this is a definite drop in class. Meanwhile, for Phoenix, this will be just the second time they are matched up w/ a team that was being projected to make the playoffs at the start of the season. 8* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
11-07-15 | Rockets v. Clippers -8 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): After giving up 110 points in a close win over the Kings last night, the Rockets are walking into the proverbial "lion's den" here against the rested Clippers, whose only loss this year came at the hands of unbeaten Golden State. It's not like the Clips need any additional motivation coming off their first loss of the season, but they have it here in the form of revenge for last season's crushing playoff exit at the hands of Houston. If you recall, Los Angeles was up 3-1 in that particular series and had the Rockets "dead to rights," up 17 in the third quarter here at home in the potential series clincher, but let it get away and were outscored by 37 points over the final five quarters. Tonight should be LA's night. Lay the points. I played against the Rockets last night and the end result was a 'push' in their six-point victory over the Kings. They led "wire to wire," but the game got close at the end and were it not for James Harden's 43 points, things could have turned out very differently. Considering Harden entered last night shooting just 29.4 percent from the floor, I wouldn't be expecting a repeat performance here. Yes, Dwight Howard was given the night off Friday and will be back tonight, but there are still a number of other injuries the team is dealing with (three rotation players out). Remember that Houston, the best ATS team in the league last year, has covered just one game so far this season and started the year w/ three consecutive 20+ point losses (first team to do that in NBA history!). The Clippers actually rallied from an early 17-point hole at Golden State Thursday night to take a 10-point lead w/ less than eight minutes remaining in the game. But beating the Warriors is hard to do and in the end, it was a four-point loss. That being said, LA can take solace in the fact that they are the ONLY team so far to stay within double digits of the Warriors. The Rockets lost to the Warriors by 20 and that was at home. We know what the Clips are capable of at home (4-0 SU this year, winning by an avg margin of 9 PPG) and this will be the fewest # of points they've been laid to ask here at the Staples Center so far this season. This is a great spot situationally for the home team. 8* LA Clippers |
|||||||
11-07-15 | Nets +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 86-94 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (8:35 ET): With an embarrassing home loss to the Lakers Friday night, the Nets maintained their place as one of the league's three winless teams, alongside Philadelphia and (surprisingly) New Orleans. They've been outscored by a league worst 13.2 points per game to this point and I have them ahead of only the 76ers (who have the last spot in perpetuity) in my own personal power rankings. But, brighter times could be ahead, at least this evening as they visit Milwaukee in an early season revenge spot. The Bucks, who also played last night (beat New York 99-92), won at Brooklyn five days ago by a final score of 103-96 (as 1.5-pt favorites). I'll take the points in the rematch. When these teams first played, Milwaukee was 0-3 and coming off an ugly loss the previous night in Toronto. They've now won three straight, but all have been at the expense of the dregs of the Atlantic (Nets, 76ers, Knicks) and by no more than a seven-point margin. I've already played against this team, as a favorite, a couple of times this season (and gone 2-0 ATS) and noted that they are somewhat overvalued in that role coming off a profitable 2014-15 campaign at the betting window (55.3 percent ATS). The Bucks were lucky last night in the sense that their own awful three-point shooting (3 of 14) was "topped" by New York going just 4 of 21 from behind the arc. An early 14-point lead was huge as the margin was only two points heading into the fourth quarter, but the Knicks could never "get over the hump." Brooklyn was also terrible from distance last night, missing 16 of 19 three-point attempts. Sadly, that's nothing new as the team is a league-worst 22.7 percent from 3-pt range this year. That and turnovers have been the major issues. They actually jumped out to an early 27-18 lead on the Lakers, but wound up giving that away by halftime. Part of the problem, in my opinion, is that there were a ton of Laker fans at the game last night and it almost had a feel of a road game for the Nets, despite being at the Barclays Center. This is an actual road game, but considering the way they've played the Bucks in five meetings the last two seasons (four decided by 7 pts or less), I'm siding with the underdog. Points could be at a premium in this one. 10* Brooklyn |
|||||||
11-06-15 | Rockets v. Kings +6 | Top | 116-110 | Push | 0 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:35 ET): I'm well aware that Boogie Cousins isn't expected to suit up for the Kings tonight, but a rare national TV appearance at home should have the rest of the team fired up here and I'll call for them to cover a generous spread. Last year, the Rockets and Kings finished at opposite ends of the ATS spectrum w/ the former leading the league at 59.2 percent while Sacramento "brought up the rear" at 40.3 percent. So far in 2015-16, the early season returns haven't been all that promising on either side. You've had the predictable regression on the Houston side of things (1-4 ATS) while Sacramento is just 2-3 ATS. But this line is clearly inflated due to the Cousins' injury and I think we can take advantage. Houston's season got off to a real ugly start as they lost each of their first three games by 20+ points, becoming the first team in league history to "accomplish" such a dubious feat. Things have since turned for the better w/ a pair of five-point wins over Oklahoma City & Orlando (both at home). However, it was a "fight to the finish" in both as they trailed the Thunder by 11 points at halftime and then needed OT to get by the pesky Magic. An issue that the Rockets are dealing with right now is Dwight Howard's back, which will continue to limit his time on the court. Tonight marks the front end of a back to back (at Clippers tomorrow night) for the team, so Howard's minutes may be limited or he may not play at all. They chose to rest him entirely the first time they were in the front end of a back to back and the result was a 20-point loss at Miami. Overall, they are 0-2 w/o Howard this year, also losing by 20 to lowly Denver. Not facing Howard would be a big break for Sacramento considering they'll be w/o their best player too. But we do know Houston will not have the services of three key contributors: Terrance Jones, Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas. So not having Cousins might not be THAT big of a deal for Sacramento here, all things considered. Having to carry an increased scoring load, James Harden has really struggled from the floor (below 30 percent!). The Kings had largely been competitive before running into a hot shooting Suns team Weds night and I think are a nice value getting all these points here at home. 10* Sacramento |
|||||||
11-06-15 | Hawks v. Pelicans +3 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): With Anthony Davis thought to be ready to ascend to the top of the league, the Pelicans came into 2015-16 w/ a lot of promise. So far, they've failed to deliver. They are 0-4, both straight up and against the spread, but two of the games were against Golden State. On paper, things don't get a whole lot easier this evening as in comes Atlanta, the team that finished w/ the best record in the Eastern Conference last year. The Hawks have won five in a row as well, however, those wins have all come at the expense of bad Eastern Conference teams, only one of whom made the playoffs a season ago and that was Brooklyn, who is awful this year. I just can't see New Orleans continuing to lose, so I'll take the points here. Both of these teams were big winners at the betting window last season (ATL 57.9% ATS, NO 57.1%). Thus, you would expect some slight regression this year seeing as both were surprise teams in 2014-15. Atlanta hasn't really been asked to lay big points this season, though they did lose outright as seven-point chalk in the opener. They haven't lost since, but three of the five wins have come by six points or less. It was a two-point game entering the fourth quarter vs. Brooklyn Wednesday. Fortunately (for them), they were able to connect on 59 percent of their FG attempts in the second half, but as you know that's a very difficult, if not impossible, pace to maintain. They also benefited from 19 Nets' turnovers. There were actually 14 lead changes in the game and the Hawks didn't go up by double digits until there were less than five minutes remaining. At home last year, Atlanta was dominant. On the road, they were far more fallible, going only 25-16 SU. They lost here in New Orleans, as a three-point favorite, 115-100. The Pelicans are coming off B2B home losses, so they are desperate here. I cannot fathom Davis continuing to play as poorly as he has to this point and the team is likely to see its shooting improve across the board. Davis' own shooting has been worse than any four-game stretch last season for him. Injuries have literally hurt the Pelicans so far, as has facing Steph Curry twice, but I expect better from this team tonight. 8* New Orleans |
|||||||
11-06-15 | Wizards v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): I view these teams as being pretty even. Therefore, the Celtics getting points, at home, seems like a really good value. The reason for this value is that since winning it season opener (112-95 over Philadelphia), Boston has lost three straight. Two of those defeats came at the hands of San Antonio and Toronto. The other was Wednesday, a 2-point loss at Indiana as a road favorite. The result of this is that the market has shifted too far against Brad Stevens' team. Washington is 3-1 SU and off a buzzer-beating victory over San Antonio, at home, Wednesday night. Such a high profile win is likely to attract extra attention from the public, so we have a bit of a "double whammy" here as the home team is undervalued and the road team overvalued. The Wizards needed a 36-point fourth quarter to overcome the Spurs Weds night. It was a wild game as they jumped out to a 19-2 advantage right out of the gate, only for San Antonio to counter w/ a 28-5 run of their own. While it's tough to decipher anything from that kind of inconsistency, what's not up for dispute is that Washington's defense has been subpar. Twice they have allowed 113+ points this season. They have allowed 50+ in the first half of every game. While they have a 3-1 SU record, all three wins have come by five points or less. In road games where the O/U line falls into the 205 to 209.5 point range, they are just 3-9 straight up (L3 seasons). It will be interesting to see how they fare against a Celtics team that's averaging 30 PPG in the fourth quarter this year. Slow starts have hurt Boston so far (19 PPG in the first quarter). So has a poor overall shooting percentage of 40.2% (28th in the league). You have to figure both of those numbers will start to go up. Defensively, as expected, the team has been solid, limiting its foes to 41.5 percent shooting, even though they are giving up 100.7 points per game. They held Indiana to just 38.5% shooting Wednesday, but turnovers really killed the Celtics as they had 19 of them, which were converted into 22 Pacers' points. Fortunately, Boston is 26-17 ATS when off 3+ losses the L3 seasons, so I see them bouncing back here at home tonight. 8* Boston |
|||||||
11-05-15 | Hornets v. Mavs -4 | Top | 108-94 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Charlotte is just 2-19 SU all-time vs. the Mavericks, including 0-11 here in Dallas. All trends are eventually due to regress, but this one won't be doing so tonight as I think the Mavs are a) being undervalued and b) due for a big bounce back. Tuesday saw them lose their home opener, to Toronto, 102-91 as two-point dogs. Their only other loss this year was to the Clippers, a game where I nailed the Under. The Hornets have played hard this year, but suffice to say Tuesday's 130-105 beatdown of the Bulls (at home) was more "blip" than "trend" as in the first three games they'd failed to top 94 points. Offense has been an issue under HC Steve Clifford and I just don't think the visitors will have enough in the tank to stay with the home favorites tonight. Lay the points. To give you some reference, Dallas checked in as a 9.5-pt favorite when they hosted Charlotte last year. I'm not convinced that the market shifting this much is justified. Tuesday against Toronto was a much closer game than the final score indicated as it was a one-point contest heading into the fourth quarter when the Mavs would go on to shoot a pretty woeful 6 of 22 from the floor. One issue right now is the minutes restriction on Chandler Parsons (offseason knee injury), although I think it's unfair to pin the loss to the Raptors solely on that. One reason I think that the Mavs are undervalued coming into this season is that they were actually one of the worst ATS teams in the league last year (35-48-4), which means a likely "market correction" is coming. Plus there's a perception that the team has "fallen off" (did win 51 games LY!), which may be true, but I'm not sure to the degree that's being called for. After shooting below 41 percent from the floor in each of their first three games, the Hornets were at 51.6% in Tuesday's breakout performance over Chicago. I think it's very likely that we'll see a drastic falloff tonight. Consider that in 13 of the past 14 meetings w/ Dalllas, Charlotte has been held below 100 points. That includes 80.5 PPG in last season's two defeats. Though the Hornets have been historically profitable in this price range, on the road, they fail tonight. 10* Dallas |
|||||||
11-04-15 | 76ers +10.5 v. Bucks | Top | 87-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): At the start of the season, this line would have made sense, but I've had to downgrade Milwaukee due to a 1-3 SU/ATS start that's seen them get blown out twice. You'll recall I played against them in their first game, the result there being a 122-97 loss to a Knicks team that was perceived to be among the league's worst coming into the year. This is a banged up Bucks team right now w/ several players missing time and really it shouldn't be too much of a surprise to see them regress in the early going as this was a team that improved its win total by 26 games last year while covering the spread over 55% of the time. Surprisingly, they went 23-9 ATS as favorites, but this year figures to find them laying points more often and in this case bigger numbers than we're accustomed to seeing. Take the points. It took getting 13 points at home, but the 76ers did leave w/ the cash for the first time this season, Monday against Cleveland. They did actually lead in the game, by as many as 15 points in fact and by five at halftime. The far better team eventually took over, but Milwaukee isn't Cleveland and doesn't have LeBron James. On the bright side for Philadelphia, top draft choice Jahlil Okafor scored 20+ points for the second time in three games. The team should be able to take advantage of a Milwaukee defense that has been beyond atrocious, giving up 110.5 points per game to this point. The Sixers are on a very impressive 60-33 ATS run as road dogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. Milwaukee has been a banged up team to this point and while they're getting healthier (Jabari Parker is back), I still don't like them in this price range. They only got by Brooklyn, who is in contention to be the league's second worst team (admittedly, ahead of the Sixers), by seven points Monday. Now they did sweep Philly last year (4-0) and are 6-1 SU/ATS the past seven meetings overall. But the Bucks are just 18-33 ATS as home favorites in that same 9.5 to 12 pt range. With a relatively lower total, points should be at somewhat of a premium here, making grabbing the big number the way to go. 8* Philadelphia |
|||||||
11-03-15 | Nuggets v. Lakers +1.5 | Top | 120-109 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Coming into the year, the fact that Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are terrible seemed to be lost on no one but the guilty party itself, but the reality seems to becoming more and more apparent "in-house" after a dreadful 0-3 SU/ATS start. Said Bryant after a dreadful 3 of 15 shooting performance against the Mavs on Sunday, "I freaking suck." I'm inclined to agree w/ that assessment, however, I do believe the team itself is a good value tonight as it's actually not being asked to lay points against a Denver side that simply isn't much better. Sure, the Nuggets are perfect against the spread as a road favorite of three points or less the last two seasons, but it's a small sample size (5-0 ATS) that's due to regress as is the team's three-game SU/ATS win streak here in LA against the Lakers. With both teams having lost to Minnesota already this season, right now you would have to project these two to be the worst teams in the Western Conference. The fact that Denver checks in as a road favorite seems to be an overreaction to the Lakers. After opening the season w/ a surprising 20-point win in Houston (a team that also struggled out of the gate), the Nuggets have been blown out in B2B games, losing by a total of 41 points to the T'wolves and Thunder. This is a total rebuild in the Rocky Mountains and it certainly doesn't help that the team looks like it will be down several contributors for tonight's matchup. Wilson Chandler and Jusuf Nurkic have yet to take the court this season and Joffrey Lauvergne & Nikola Jokic are both dealing with back injuries. If none of those names sound familiar to you, then you probably gain a sense of what a sorry state this franchise is in right now. Will Barton (who?) shared the team-lead in scoring in Sunday's loss. Rookie Emmanuel Mudiay (#7 overall DC) will likely lead the league in turnovers at his current pace. As bad as Bryant has been, he is at least capable of breaking out for a good game or two. I believe there to be far more talent on this Lakers' roster than that of the Nuggets. Bryant himself may very well end up holding it back, but I can see him having a good game here in what could be a high-scoring, wide open game w/ little defense played on either side. Denver was a dreadful road team last season (11-30 SU), so the Lakers should be given more credit for having the homecourt edge. 10* LA Lakers |
|||||||
11-03-15 | Pacers +5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:35 ET): Before the year started, I projected the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference to be a three-horse race between Central Division rivals Milwaukee (who made the playoffs last year), Indiana and Detroit. Early returns have the Pistons currently sitting in the "pole position" as they are 3-0 SU (and ATS) while their two rivals both opened 0-3 SU/ATS. The Bucks won last night though and now I feel it's time for the Pacers to get out of the box as they find themselves catching a generous number this evening in the Motor City. This will be the first time this season that Detroit is being asked to lay points, a role that has been unkind to them previously, especially here at home where they've gone just 5-14 ATS in the -3.5 to -6 range the past two seasons. I'm taking the points here. Indiana had played somewhat of a tough schedule to open the season as they had to play three good teams in four-day span. They were absolutely hammered Halloween night, at home, by Utah as the final score there was 97-76. Rebounding and shooting have been the two primary issues thus far for the Pacers, but it's hard to imagine they'll play a worse game than what we saw Saturday where they scored just 27 points in the second half. This is a different Indiana team than past years w/ a remade roster and approach. Monta Ellis has struggled in the early going, but should get better. They should also cut down on the number of turnovers (44 last 2 games) as 24 of them led to 30 Utah points. I just don't think this team is as bad as its looked in the early going. Nor do I think Detroit is as good as its looked in its first three games. They've actually been outshot in every game this season, so despite the nice-looking defensive numbers, the offense still needs a lot of work. Two of the team's wins have been by five points or less, including a 98-94 overtime victory over Chicago on Friday. Overall, the Pistons are shooting just 38.7 percent from the floor, which is pretty bad, as is their 67 percent free throw shooting. I'll call for a little progression/regression to the mean Tuesday night as the disappointing team gets the cash at the expense of its surprising counterpart. 8* Indiana |
|||||||
11-02-15 | Grizzlies +9 v. Warriors | Top | 69-119 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
8* Memphis (10:35 ET): Golden State has certainly picked up from where it left off last year as the defending NBA Champs have opened 3-0 SU/ATS with all three victories coming by double digits. Two were against New Orleans and the other at Houston, two teams that are combined 0-6 SU/ATS right now. That's certainly worth noting as is the fact that Steph Curry has been carrying the load with 39.3 points per game, including 53 Saturday night against the Pelicans. He was a ridiculous 17 of 27 from the field in that game, 8 of 14 from three-point range, so a dropoff here is all but inevitable. I think the Grizzlies will be the Warriors' toughest test to date and come into Monday night's matchup undervalued. Take the points. Houston and New Orleans were two of the Western Conference teams the Warriors ousted on their way to the NBA Finals. Memphis was the other and of the three gave Golden State their toughest test. They beat them twice, including an upset as 10-pt dogs here at Oracle Arena. That was one of just THREE home losses for the Warriors in their last 50 games here! The loss of Mike Conley really hurt the Grizzlies in that particular series and he led the team in scoring w/ 22 points in Saturday's win over Brooklyn. It was an ugly start to the season for the Grizz as they got blown out at home by Cleveland, but they've responded w/ B2B victories by a combined 19 points. This is the first time they are getting points this season. Had Memphis been more competitive against the Cavaliers, then I don't think this line would be nearly as high. It was just one game and it should be pointed out that the Grizzlies were blown out at home by the Cavaliers last year as well, so it may simply be a case of "bad matchup." Golden State covered an impressive 57.6 percent of their games en route to last year's NBA title (tied for 3rd best ATS record in the league), so at some point there HAS to be some "market correction," right? I'll call for the linesmakers to "catch up with them" here as defensively there were some major issues against the Pelicans that got lost in the impressive offensive performance from Curry. 8* Memphis |
|||||||
10-31-15 | Warriors v. Pelicans +4.5 | Top | 134-120 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (7:35 ET): This is an early revenge spot for the Pelicans, who lost on Opening Night, 111-95 at Golden State. I was on them there & it's one of just two losses I've suffered so far this NBA season. So, it's a bit of a revenge spot for me as well! Needless to say, 0-2 was not how 1st year HC Alvin Gentry envisioned starting the season when taking this job. After losing to the Warriors, his team was blown out the following night, 112-94 in Portland, by a team that had lost four of its five starters from last season. But now the Pellies find themselves in a somewhat advantageous spot, at home, hosting a Warriors team playing in the second night of back to backs. Take the points. Of course, not only does New Orleans have revenge from Tuesday night, but also from LY's playoffs when they were swept in the first round by eventual NBA champion Golden State. Overall, the Warriors have now taken 11 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Superstar Anthony Davis did not play well in the opener. He shot a woeful 4 of 20 from the field and 10 of his 18 points came at the FT line. Naturally, you would expect him to play better here. He had 25-10 Wednesday vs. the Blazers, but that wasn't nearly enough as the team fell into an almost insurmountable 43-18 hole at the end of the first quarter. Davis, as noted in previous analysis, has expanded his repertoire to include a three-point shot and made three from behind the arc against Portland. It's not like Golden State shot the ball lights out in the season opener. They were just 42.7% overall from the field and missed 21 of 30 three-point attempts. Save for Steph Curry, who scored 40 points, the rest of the team shot just 27 of 70 (38.5%) and was 4 for 18 from behind the arc. Last night saw the Warriors blow out the Rockets on the road, 112-92, but that appears to have come w/ some "casualties" as Klay Thompson could only play 24 minutes due to a back injury. This being the second game of a back to back, you'd expect his minutes to be further limited tonight. Andrew Bogut is also out from a concussion sustained in the season opener and of course HC Steve Kerr remains MIA. The Pelicans are 46-35 ATS at home the L2 years, including 8-4 as a dog of 3.5 to 6 pts. 10* New Orleans |
|||||||
10-30-15 | Lakers v. Kings -6 | Top | 114-132 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): I can't imagine that too many people will be interested in laying this many points w/ a Kings team that dropped its season opener, but hosting a terrible Lakers squad that still receives far too much public backing is one of the select times doing so is justifiable. Remember, the Lakers couldn't even beat Minnesota at home in their opener. For Sacramento, this is a drop in class after playing the far superior LA team Wednesday night. Turnovers put them into an early hole too big to climb out of against the Clippers, but the Kings still competed for four quarters and ended up basically playing the Clips even over the final 36 minutes. Coaching doesn't always mean a ton in the NBA, but George Karl over Byron Scott is a massive mismatch. Again, don't be afraid to lay the points here! Those thinking that the return of a healthy Kobe Bryant to the Lakers lineup will lead to any kind of drastic improvement are fooling themselves. Kobe is officially "over the hill" now, yet he continues to take far too many shots at the expense of his teammates. He missed 16 of 24 in the opener, including 10 of 13 from three-point range and his final eight overall. Perhaps equally worrisome was the poor debut of rookie PG D'Angelo Russell, who finished with just 4-3-2 in his first game as a pro. By the end of the game, he wasn't even playing point guard, which is supposed to be his position w/ the team. Again, the Lakers just lost to a Minnesota team that won only 16 games last season, at home, and shot just 9 for 35 from three-point range! A clear case can be made that this once-proud organization is the worst team in the entire Western Conference. Sacramento has a "uniquely" built roster to say the least, but at least there's some reasons for optimism here. The Kings did take three of the four matchups w/ the Lakers last year, including both here at home. Overall, they are 6-2 SU the last eight times hosting the Lakers while averaging 105.2 PPG on 48.2 percent shooting. Boogie Cousins will be the best player on the floor Friday night and his increased range (made 4 of 5 3pt attempts Weds!) is a great sign. Did I mention that the Lakers are also awful defensively? 10* Sacramento |
|||||||
10-30-15 | Raptors +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): While these teams finished 1-2 in the Atlantic Division last season, they were actually miles apart at the betting window as the upstart Celtics finished with one of the top five ATS records in the league while the first place Raptors languished far behind at just 43.5%, also seeing their season end via a first round sweep. Coming into this season, I feel there being a "groundswell" of support for Boston to overtake Toronto in the division, but I'm not sure I buy into that as a pretty large gap existed between the two last year (nine games) and it remains to be seen if the superstar-less Celtics have upgraded their roster to the degree some think they have. This was a sub-.500 team, after all, last year. Both teams opened 2015-16 w/ a win, each in the home favorite role. Toronto beat Indiana, 106-99 (-5.5), after erasing an early 10-point first quarter deficit. They scored 69 points after halftime and all but one starter finished w/ 14+ points. That was a much more difficult opponent that they had to deal with, compared to Boston, who hosted lowly Philadelphia and won 112-95 (-12.5). The Celtics also fell into an early first quarter hole, but the fact that their bench outscored their 76ers counterparts 67-15 quickly nullified that. Something else to consider is that Boston actually had a losing record here at home last season. As division rivals, these teams played four times last year and three of the games were very close, decided by three points or less. Boston won two of those, by a combined three points, but my own personal power rankings say they are overvalued coming into this first meeting of 2015-16 and this line should be closer to a pick 'em. There will likely be a great deal of focus on Amir Johnson now being on the Celtics (former Raptor), but don't discount the addition of DeMarre Carroll to the Raptors, as he should improve them on the defensive end. Having lost 21 of their previous 25 visits to Boston, Toronto is likely "due" to turn things around. Take the points. 8* Toronto |
|||||||
10-28-15 | Mavs +4.5 v. Suns | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
8* Dallas (10:05 ET): Most NBA experts have seven teams (Warriors, Spurs, Thunder, Clippers, Rockets, Grizzlies, Pelicans) penciled in for the playoffs. The two matching up here are expected to battle for that eighth and final spot (w/ Utah as well). I think that the projected regression in Dallas is too severe though. Remember that this team won 50 games last season before injuries and the unwanted presence of Rajon Rondo took their toll heading into the playoffs. I don't think they'll be nearly as bad as the projections (just 37 wins!) are calling for. On the bright side, that makes them undervalued for tonight's season opener against a Suns team that I do have declining in 2015-16. Take the points. Phoenix has been in NBA limbo for the past few seasons, a terrible place to be, as they haven't been good enough to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference but also haven't been bad enough to get into position to add a key piece via the Draft Lottery. Simply put, this is a team at a crossroads entering this season. The West is only getting stronger and I don't see the Suns as being any better. Therefore, it would be wise to simply do a good old fashioned "teardown." The Morris twins have been split up, which may leave holdover Markieff angry, and the lone free agent acquisition was 33-year old Tyson Chandler. Defensively, this team was quite poor last season, allowing 103.3 points per game. Dallas isn't going to blow things up, not as long as Mark Cuban is running the show, and despite a (very) disappointing offseason (spurned by DeAndre Jordan), I'm not convinced this team is significantly worse compared to last season. They swapped out Rondo for Deron Williams, a Dallas native, which is clearly a net gain. It does appear that Chandler Parsons won't play tonight, but new SG Wesley Matthews will. Of course, there's Dirk Nowitzki as well and while he has plenty of "tread on the tires" (18th season!), he leads what is still one of the league's better offenses (105.5 PPG last year). The Mavs were shockingly one of the worst ATS teams in the league last year (35-48-4) and come into 2015-16 undervalued as a result. 8* Dallas |
|||||||
10-28-15 | Knicks +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 122-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* New York (8:05 ET): These teams experienced drastically different 2014-15 campaigns. Milwaukee snuck up on everybody, improving by 26 wins and going 55.3% against the spread (47-38-3) en route to a surprise playoff berth. The Knicks, on the other hand, were a complete disaster. They went a money burning 34-46-2 ATS at the betting window, the worst such mark in the entire Eastern Conference, and finished w/ the second worst overall (SU) record in the league at 17-65. However, the return of Carmelo Anthony (injured most of last season) and the arrival of #4 overall DC (Kristaps Porzingis) brings hope for improvement and I do think this downtrodden franchise comes into the year undervalued, especially in this spot against a Bucks team that's likely to slightly regress. Take the points. Milwaukee won't have two of its key players tonight. One is Jabari Parker, last year's top draft choice, who of course missed most of last season due to injury anyway. However, the other is Giannis Antetokounmpo, the so-called "Greek Freak" and that's significant. He averaged 12.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game a season ago. Remember that this was only a .500 team last season and they have some new pieces, so it could take a little bit of time to gel. Furthermore, you have to put things in perspective. The Bucks were not favored in the vast majority of their games last season and actually closed on a 1-8 ATS run when favored by six or more points. That includes a non-cover against these Knicks plus three outright losses. Safe to say, they're coming into the year a tad bit overvalued. The Knicks lost all four meetings last year w/ the Bucks. Their one trip to Milwaukee saw them play w/ Anthony and resulted in only a four-point loss. It's important to note that the season really nose-dived once Anthony "shut it down" and I expect him to have a solid bounce back campaign here. He's had plenty of past success here at the Bradley Center, averaging 29.6 PPG, his highest output in any arena. The offense showed signs of picking up the pace in the preseason and despite not having starting PG Aaron Afflalo here, their offensive efficiency should be improved. 10* New York |
|||||||
10-27-15 | New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 95-111 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (10:35 ET): This is a big revenge spot for the Pelicans, who suffered a four-game sweep at the hands of the eventual NBA Champs in last year's playoff. That series was far more competitive than a sweep might otherwise indicate, however, as they actually led the Warriors by 20 points after three quarters in Game 3 before blowing that lead and eventually bowing out the next game. But w/ Anthony Davis (league's best player?) and a new coach, this team figures to be better in 2015-16 and despite seven straight losses at Oracle Arena (1-14 SU L15 vs. GSW overall!), I see them being very competitive in tonight's season opener. Furthermore, how many times have we seen a team celebrating a championship win from the previous year suffer a letdown once the game gets going? Take the points here. Golden State retained its entire core from a 67-win campaign, but will be w/o their head coach, Steve Kerr (back surgery), for the foreseeable future. That leaves the unproven Luke Walton (!) in charge on an interim basis. Of course, it would have been Alvin Gentry manning the ship had he not decided to take over as HC in New Orleans! Gentry's knowledge of the "inner-workings" of the Warriors should prove to be critical for tonight's matchup. Again, history shows this has been a very tough spot for teams that won the NBA Finals the previous year as they are just 5-8 ATS on Opening Night (San Antonio failed to cover last year) the L13 seasons as the ring ceremony often times serves as a distraction and causes the home team to come out flat. While the Warriors might enter the year as the best team, New Orleans will have the best player on the court Tuesday night in the form of Anthony Davis, who just may supplant LeBron James as the league's top player this season. He shot 54 percent from the floor against Golden State in the playoffs last year, averaging 31.0 points per game. He ranked 4th in the league in PPG a year ago, while leading all players in blocks and finishing in the top eight in FG%, rebounds and double doubles. Look for the Pelicans to stay within the generous number on Opening Night. 8* New Orleans |
|||||||
06-16-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (9:05 ET): Despite being short-handed and off B2B losses, I can't see the Cavs going down w/o a fight as Game 5 (at Golden State) was a one-point contests w/ less than five minutes remaining and for the most part this has been a very closely contested series. No team wants to lose the NBA Finals on its home court, therefore I'm going to take the points in this situation as I think the underdog Cavs are being undervalued at home w/ their season on the line. LeBron James is having an all-time great series and if he can just get SOME contribution out of the supporting cast, then I see his team forcing a deciding Game 7 Friday night. The Cavs are 27-3 SU their L30 home games and one of those losses came w/o James. Cleveland has struggled as an underdog this year, going just 8-16 SU/ATS, but the majority of those games were w/ James out of the lineup and they are 3-0 SU this postseason when trailing in a playoff series, plus 8-0 SU at home this year when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points. Like Golden State going into Game 4, being off B2B losses is somewhat uncharted territory for the Cavaliers as this is the first time it's happened, other than a home & home w/ Boston late in the year when they rested James and other key players, since the long losing streak when James took time off to heal. James is playing the best basketball of his career right now, averaging an other-worldly 36.6 PPG, 12.5 RPG and 8.8 APG in the Finals. But the Cavs' chances of staying alive and forcing a Game 7 hinge on players not named LeBron contributing as well. The starting backcourt of Matthew Dellavedova and Iman Shumpert combined to go just 5 for 18 from the field in Game 5 and after a hot start, JR Smith didn't score over the game's final 33 minutes. I did like HC David Blatt's decision to match Golden State and "go small" as it results in arguably their five best players all being on the floor at the same time. The Cavs average over 103 PPG at home this year, thanks to 38 percent shooting from three-point range. They will improve offensively tonight and I do give them a great shot at winning this game outright. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
06-11-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +3 | Top | 103-82 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): I just don't get it. Golden State remains the series favorite (although the odds are now much slighter) despite facing a 2-1 series deficit and are favored here on the road against a Cavs team that has won 27 of its last 29 games here at Quicken Loans Arena. With the anticipating of 'zig-zag' bettors coming in, the line is actually higher than what it was for Game 3 when Cleveland prevailed 96-91, a final score that is misleading in the sense that the Cavs never trailed. In fact, Golden State has not led at the end of any quarter in this series (only at the end of OT in Gm 1) and has faced double digit deficits in all three games. Therefore, I have no choice but to take the points w/ the team that has played better and is at home tonight. The Warriors are just 3-3 SU/ATS as a road favorite of 3 pts or less this season. As I pointed out before Gm 3, when the line for these two games in Cleveland were originally posted, the home team was listed as a 2.5-pt favorite. That's a pretty sizable swing, primarily owed to the absence of Kyrie Irving, but the Cavs have now won five of six w/ him out of the lineup. Of course, having LeBron James on your roster allows you to overcome all sorts of personnel losses, which is what Cleveland is doing here. Through three games, James is averaging 41.0 points per game in the series, not to mention 12.0 rebounds and 8.3 assists. He has clearly outplayed MVP Steph Curry in this series as Cleveland's other "star in the making" Matthew Dellavedova has done a yeoman's job defensively on Curry, save for the fourth quarter of the last game. I understand that the Cavs are short-handed, but they also have the best player in the world on their roster and are at home. They should not be getting points. James' patience on the offensive end has completely frustrated the Warriors, who are being forced to play at a much slower pace than they desire. Through three games, they've averaged just 97.3 PPG & that's w/ two overtime periods. As I've written before, Golden State's offensive numbers are down significantly in these playoffs (103.2 PPG) and would be down even further if not for the series w/ Houston, who is awful defensively. The Cavs have been the top defensive team in these playoffs, allowing just 93.4 PPG, and they're allowing less than 30 percent shooting from three-point range. Since Jan 15, Cleveland has only lost once on its home floor w/ James on the court. The team is being severely undervalued. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
06-09-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 | Top | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): While some subscribe to the notion of "right side = winning side," in my opinion that there can be no denying that Cleveland & Under were the right plays for both Games 1 and 2 of this year's NBA Finals. While that combo resulted in a "double bad beat" in the series opener (due to overtime), it came through easily in Gm 2 as the Cavs again covered wire to wire (closed +7.5) throughout regulation and this time didn't relinquish the lead in extra time. The game also stayed Under by a double digit margin despite overtime. More shocking is that Cleveland was able to win on the road despite shooting only 32.2 percent for the game. Now the series shifts to Quicken Loans Arena, where the Cavaliers have lost only twice since mid-January, and curiously Golden State has been bet to the role of favoritism. I've been on Cleveland in the first two games and am not willing to switch course yet as they easily could be up 2-0 in the series. Before this series officially got underway, some books were willing to post lines for the first four individual games. Originally, Cleveland was -2.5 for both Games 3 and 4. So, with the public coming in on the Warriors here, you can see we're able to get some nice value on the Cavs as a home dog now and I wouldn't be shocked if the line was bet even further in Golden State's direction. It's a mistake by the public in my opinion as the only two games Cleveland has lost here at home since mid-January had extenuating circumstances. One was late in the regular season & all the top players (LeBron among them) were being rested. The other was Gm 1 of the Chicago series, which was off a long-layoff & the first game w/o Kevin Love. I understand that there's no Kyrie Irving anymore either, but we saw the overreaction in the line for Game 2 (opened +5.5) and the Cavs did win two games against Atlanta w/o Irving, remember. As I've written about previously, the Cavaliers' defensive transformation in these playoffs has been nothing short of astounding. Opponents, the Warriors included, are shooting less than 30 percent from three-point range. Golden State averaged 111 points per game in the regular season at home, yet in the first two games of this series has been held to just 100.5 PPG despite the benefit of two overtimes. At the same time, Cleveland is absolutely likely to shoot better than 32.2 percent overall now that they're back at home and let's not forget that despite the depleted roster, they still have the best player in the world on their roster. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
06-07-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 95-93 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Obviously, I'm not the first person to bring this up, nor will I be the last. But the underdog Cavs not covering Game 1 was the most brutal of beats as at no point during regulation were they "not in the money." Despite taking the Warriors to OT Thursday night, the Game 2 line is now much higher, due to a variety of reasons. Remember that when this number initially opened, it was at 5.5 w/ the linesmakers anticipating "zig zag players" coming in on Cleveland. But now that the Cavs are w/o Kyrie Irving for the remainder of the series (not to to much Kevin Love!), the public has become far less enthusiastic about their chances moving forward. But considering how close Game 1 was for much of the way, I think the underdog is undervalued. Game 1 saw a very high percentage of bettors go out on a limb and take the Cavs on the money line. That seemed a little ambitious. But with Golden State now a more prohibitive favorite to take the game and the series, I would actually be LESS suprised if Cleveland won this game outright. They did lead outright most of the way Thursday night and that was w/ LeBron James getting very little help from a supporting cast that has mostly played well this postseason. So the fact that Kyrie Irving is no longer available isn't as big a concern as you might think considering the Cavs almost won w/ minimal contributions from him for much of these playoffs, including two games vs. Atlanta. Cleveland is 14-0 straight up this year when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Remember that this team has lost just three times in the playoffs, once in overtime and once at the buzzer. Two of the three losses came after extended layoffs. Though many think LeBron won't be able to maintain his level of play from the first game, I disagree. I full anticipate a big series from him and I expect the Cavs are going to make this a series. Take the points. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
06-04-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +6 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -115 | 158 h 55 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): So...not much has really happened since I decided to release this play a week ago. The number has stayed relatively the same, and while the fact the majority of the public money being on the Cavs should scare me, alas it does not. While Golden State certainly deserves to be favored to win the series, by virtue of its 67-15 regular season record and hailing from the better conference, I don't think Cleveland is getting nearly enough respect. The series odds (Warriors greater than 2:1) are too lopsided for my tastes. All the Cavaliers have done since January 15th is go 46-11 straight up & in the playoffs they actually own a slightly better point differential (+8.9 to +8.0 per game), not to mention they have one less loss compared to the Warriors. Sure, you could argue that much of that has to do w/ coming out of the weaker Eastern Conference, but note that the Warriors did avoid what I felt would have been their two toughest opponents in the West - the Spurs & Clippers. Take the points. One big factor pointing in the Cavs' direction right now has been their defensive transformation. I cited this multiple times in playing them against the Hawks in the Conference Finals. They have been the #1 defensive team in these playoffs, allowing just 92.5 points per game and opponents are shooting a ridiculously low 32.2 percent - for the year - from three point range when they are the road team. In the playoffs, they're holding teams to right around 30 percent from behind the arc, overall. In five of the last seven games, they did not allow 90 points. Now I know that's an unrealistic standard when facing Golden State, but consider that in the two rounds prior to facing the defensively inept Rockets, the Warriors often struggled to meet their regular season average on the offensive end of the floor. Much of the focus for the series has centered around the star (LeBron) vs. the team (GSW). I think this is doing a disservice to James' supporting cast, which has routinely stepped up throughout the playoffs. A healthy Kyrie Irving would be a huge luxury to have, but remember they did just sweep a 60+ win Hawks team w/o him really playing much of the series. LeBron still is the best player in basketball & I believe his three-point shooting is due to improve here in the Finals. Also, he wasn't even in the lineup when the Cavs made their lone visit to Oakland in the regular season. He went for 42-11-7 when he did play in Cleveland and the Cavs won that game, going away, 110-99. This is going to be a much closer game and series than the current odds suggest. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
05-27-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10 | Top | 90-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): I had the Rockets in Game 4 as I felt the sense that the Warriors would sweep the series was far too overwhelming. Plus, Houston was at home and coming off an embarrassing loss. The Warriors did lose B2B games to Memphis in the last series, but I certainly don't see that happening here, nor do I see this game being particularly close. Note there have been seven games in the NBA postseason that have been decided by 25 points or more. Houston has lost three of them, including Game 3 at home. Admittedly, they were close in the first two games here in Oakland, but when you consider they couldn't win despite being spotted a 16-pt lead in Game 1 and trailed by as many as 17 in Game 2, the forecast doesn't look quite as rosy. Look for Golden State to advance to the NBA Finals w/ a big win tonight. With Cleveland winning last night, there is now a greater urgency on the Warriors to finish this series off, so that the Cavs won't have a significant edge in rest entering the Finals. Fortunately, this game is at Oracle Arena where the Warriors are 45-3 SU this season and outscoring opponents by an average of 13.5 points per game. Remember that they have beaten Houston five times this season by double digits. In selecting the Rockets for Game 4, I cited the fact that they were highly unlikely to repeat their 33.7 percent shooting from the previous game. Now, the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" as they are again highly unlikely to repeat their shooting from the previous game, only this time we're talking about a 56.6% clip. Houston had 45 points at the end of the 1Q Monday, which is pretty ridiculous when you think about it, especially considering Golden State is a very good defensive team. The Rockets have actually been outscored this postseason due to giving up an average of 111.1 points per game. That's a far cry from the 96.7 PPG the Warriors are allowing in the playoffs. Golden State has also set a new high for points scored in regulation three times in this series. The 115 pts scored in Game 4 matched their high established in Game 3 and note in that game they attempted 30 fewer free throws and had to deal w/ the absence of MVP Steph Curry for an extended stretch. Curry and the Warriors should be back to their "old selves" tonight. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
05-26-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 | Top | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:35 ET): Golden State missed on their chance for a Conference Finals sweep (I had Houston!), but I think the Cavaliers are in a much better position to pull off the feat here in the East as they are not only at home, but also got Atlanta's best shot the last game (only time I did NOT play Cleveland in the series) and lived to tell the story. Whereas the Rockets were coming off an embarrassing loss in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals, the Hawks are coming off a crushing one, in overtime Sunday. They lost by a total of 21 pts at home in the first two games, and neither were as close as the final score indicated. Despite being banged up themselves (Irving questionable, no Love), Cleveland has clearly emerged as the better team here, thanks primarily to having LeBron James. Lay the points. The 104 pts allowed by the Cavaliers in Game 3 were their most in regulation in any game in these playoffs. Previously, they had not allowed more than 101. They're allowing just 92.8 PPG in the postseason as this has become quite the defensive team ever since the trades for JR Smith, Iman Shumpert & Timofey Mozgov. They actually rate as the best defensive team in the league in the playoffs and facing a banged up Hawks team that's w/o its top three-point shooter (Kyle Korver) seems an ideal way to continue that trend. Over its last five games, Atlanta is shooting just 42.1 percent from the field & Sunday was the only time during that stretch they scored more than 95 points. They'd been held under 90 in three of the previous four. LeBron James turned in another strong performance in Game 3, finishing w/ 37 pts, 18 rebounds and 13 assists, despite starting the game 0 for 10 from the field. Atlanta failed to capitalize on James' early shooting woes, which is likely to cost them their season as it's highly unlikely that the best player in the world will start tonight's game in such poor form. Cleveland has won six straight overall, allowing fewer than 90 pts four times, and going back to January 15th this is a team that has gone 45-11 straight up and lost at home just once, when all starters were resting. This series is over. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
05-25-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets +5 | Top | 115-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Houston (9:05 ET): Though the Rockets did rally back from a 3-1 series deficit against the Clippers in the last round, coming back from an 0-3 hole is unprecedented. Over half of the time, series that start 3-0 end in a sweep and coming off a dreadful Game 3 performance, I imagine there will be little support for Houston here. But I think it's important to remember they are still at home and this is the most points they've gotten for ANY game at the Toyota Center all season. While they have as many 25+ pt losses as every other team combined in the playoffs, the bottom line is that the Rockets are 14-4 ATS this year when coming off a double-digit defeat. They also are 12-2 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite. That's right; they did close as chalk last game, which means it's a massive adjustment in the line for Game 4 (expected). As tough as it may be, take the points as that's where the value is. Let's not forget that Houston only lost the first two games of the series by a total of five points. Yes, I was on Golden State Saturday, but that had a lot to do w/ the fact that I though it was the Rockets receiving too much support. Here, everyone is clearly off the Houston bandwagon, which often times (regardless of team or sport) is the appropriate time to jump on board. It's now seven games against the Warriors w/o a win and five of them have been decided by double digits. That's obviously not good, but at some point a streak such as that has to be broken. Facing elimination, you have to figure we will get the Rockets' best shot tonight. Golden State's defense does not get enough credit in my opinion, especially after holding a Houston team that had been averaging 110 PPG in the playoffs to only 80 the last game. But offensive improvement from the Rockets is all but assured in this spot as they won't shoot only 33% from the field again or miss 20 of 25 three-point attempts. Golden State is only 6-7 ATS in the playoffs and has seen its own offensive production decline. Look for Houston to keep pace tonight and for this game to come down to the wire. I'll even give the Rockets a shot at the outright upset. 8* Houston |
|||||||
05-23-15 | Golden State Warriors -1 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 115-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
8* Golden State (9:05 ET): Though the Rockets have largely been "in the money" for the entirety of the first two games of the series (did trail by 17 in Game 2), they have still yet to beat the Warriors in six tries this season. Coming home down 0-2 will represent their "best chance" to most, but I think that the linesmakers are giving them far too much respect here based off the two close calls in Oakland. The Rockets have actually been outscored this postseason and were buried by double digits both times they hosted Golden State in the regular season. They say "close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades" and with this line being so low, Houston's margin for error is basically nil. The Warriors are still the better team, folks, even on the road. Houston is 10-1 ATS as a home dog of three points or less the last three seasons, including a perfect 4-0 ATS this year. They were obviously being undervalued for Game 7 here at home vs. the Clippers (only time a Gm 7 host was a dog in the L20 seasons), but that doesn't necessarily mean that they should be getting more respect against a better opponent here. Defensively, these teams have been miles apart in the playoffs. While Golden State is allowing a scant 95.5 PPG (92.2 L5 games), Houston is all the way up at 110.5 PPG this postseason. That's a massive gap and the presence of Dwight Howard alone cannot rectify it. When you consider that the Rockets trailed Game 2 by as many as 17 pts and could not win Game 1 despite being spotted a 16-point lead, I think it's plain to see who the better team is here. Betting on Golden State to lose straight up, which is essentially what anyone taking Houston here is doing, seems foolish given that they have won 77 of 94 games SU this year. That includes a 73-11 SU mark when favored. Howard isn't 100 percent for Houston, placing a large burden on James Harden, who was at his best in Game 2 and still could not lead his team to victory. The Warriors were sloppy with the basketball (17 turnovers) in Game 2, but even though they're now on the road, I expect the "supporting cast" to step up here as they race to a 3-0 series lead. 8* Golden State |
|||||||
05-22-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +1 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 33 h 46 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:35 ET): I have to say that I'm somewhat shocked Atlanta has moved to the role of favorite here. That line move occurred before this morning's news of Kyrie Irving (questionable) skipping shootaround, but considering the Cavs didn't get a ton of production from Irving in Game 1, that doesn't necessarily worry me. Nor does the fact that JR Smith is highly unlikely to match his own production (8 of 12 on three-pointers!) from Wednesday. But if I were an Atlanta backer (and I'm obviously NOT here), I'd be worried about the potential loss of DeMarre Carroll, who was not only their leading scorer in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but the one charged w/ being the primary defender on LeBron James in this series. As I did in Game 1, I'm taking the Cavs. While the possibility of Irving missing tonight's game and Smith's regression, James will have to step up. Fortunately for him, it's highly likely he won't be guarded by Carroll and w/o Thabo Sefolosha as well, the task will likely fall onto Paul Milsap, thereby tiring him (Milsap) out and likely limiting his production on the offensive end. James, who went for 31-8-6 in Game 1, should have a big game here and I believe his jump shooting is going to eventually improve. Also, defensively, Cleveland has been tremendous in these playoffs. They are #1 in three-point defense and blocked shots. They just held Atlanta to 4 for 23 in Game 1 from behind the arc and have allowed less than 100 pts in nine of their last 10 games (89.0 PPG L5). Meanwhile, Atlanta has both scored and allowed fewer than 100 pts in three consecutive games. This does not set them up well for Game 2 as historically low-scoring teams are not good plays in the playoffs. The Hawks have failed to score even 90 pts in two of their last three games. Cleveland crushed them on the glass in Game 1, with a 47-39 rebounding edge. While perhaps zig zag players are to "blame" for the change in favorite, I can't agree with the move as the Cavs have been the better team for the last several months and James is going to continue to be the difference maker. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
05-21-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10 | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): I'm surprised by how much support the public seems to be giving Houston for Game 2. They still haven't beaten Golden State in five tries this year and while the final margin in Game 1 was a lot closer than the average loss during the regular season (15.25 PPG), the fact they were spotted a 16-point lead and still could not break through is a bad sign. It's highly unlikely that the Warriors will fall into such a hole once again and w/ Dwight Howard less than 100 percent and not looking effective, I think the Rockets are in trouble tonight. I smell a blowout, so lay the points. Consider that Game 1 marked Golden State's highest scoring game in regulation in the playoffs. Though I cashed a winning ticket on the Under Tuesday, Houston's defense remains a major concern, even more so if Howard cannot go. On the road, the Rockets are allowing 105.1 points per game this year. In the playoffs, that number is now up to 111.4 PPG overall and they've actually now been outscored in the postseason, yet somehow find themselves in the Conference Finals. Again, the odds for the series are telling as the Rockets opened at nearly 7 to 1 just to advance. Golden State led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season and has allowed just 92.4 PPG its last five. The Warriors also have a tremendous homecourt advantage w/ a 44-3 SU record at Oracle Arena that has seen them outscore opponents by nearly 15 PPG. They average over 111 PPG here at home. Given Houston's defensive woes, don't be surprised to see them start exceeding that number on a regular basis as this series progresses. They've scored at least 110 the last three times they've faced the Rockets. I just don't think the Rockets have the firepower to keep pace, even w/ James Harden, as when the Warriors went small in Game 1, they torched the Rockets' defense, which could not find a way to match up. There was a 27-point swing in the margin in Game 1 and that was Houston's previous four losses this postseason were all by double digits. This series looks like a mismatch to me & the odds reflect that. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
05-20-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +1 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 97-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:35 ET): In handicapping Game 1 and the series, there's an interesting dichotomy in this year's Eastern Conference Finals between Cleveland and Atlanta as the lower seeded Cavaliers are actually a 2:1 favorite to advance to the NBA Finals, but a slight dog tonight in Game 1. Obviously, with the game being in Atlanta, Cleveland wasn't going to be favored prohibitively, but if you like them to take the series (as I do), then grabbing them here is probably a good idea as well. Much will be made of the Hawks' "team concept" going against the best player in the world, LeBron James, but the Cavs have shown they can win this postseason w/o James being at his best (like Game 6 at Chicago). Take the points. Cleveland's defense will likely determine how this series plays out. While their YTD numbers at that end of the floor look less than ideal, the bottom line is they've gotten much better since trading for Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith and Iman Shumpert. Opponents are shooting just 46.4 percent at the rim in the playoffs, the second lowest percentage among playoff teams, against the Cavs, who also are #1 in the playoffs in three-point defense (30.0 percent) and blocked shots. They are 5-1 ATS this season after holding their previous opponent to 85 pts or less and they allowed only 74 in eliminating the Bulls in Gm 6. Remember this team has only lost 11 games (including playoffs) straight up since January 15. They have flaws, but having James obviously makes up for them. Atlanta, at least to me, has not looked the same in the playoffs. They have failed to cover both Game 1's, including an outright loss to Washington in the last round. The "problem" with the team concept is that often times they will need one player to step up & I'm not sure if the Hawks themselves know who that should be. DeMarre Carroll has been their leading scorer in the postseason, but he'll be drained here by guarding James as Chicago's Jimmy Butler was in the last round. Kyle Korver's three-point shooting has been off. The Cavs have started slow in both of their Game 1's, but LeBron-led teams have an incredible history of "stealing" road games and I like them to do so here. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
05-17-15 | Los Angeles Clippers -2 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 100-113 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (3:30 ET): Well, isn't this line surprising? We haven't seen a road team favored in a Game 7 in the last 25 years and for good reason as the home teams have won 80 percent of such contests all-time. So, either the linesmakers are speaking volumes w/ their true opinion of the Rockets here or we're all being "set up." I say it's the former. While Game 6 marked a gut-wrenching defeat for the Clippers, you can't forget they were up 19 pts for a reason. Houston has actually been outscored this postseason and for those who don't think the Clips can win here on the road, remember that they took Gm 1 of this series w/o Chris Paul and led much of the way in Gm 2 as well. Save for Gm 5, they have clearly looked like the better team in this series to me & they've already won a Game 7 in these playoffs. Lay the points. Overall, Los Angeles is 4-2 ATS on the road in the postseason. They are 3-0 SU all-time in Game 7's w/ Chris Paul & Blake Griffin and while they were the home team against San Antonio in Rd 1, I don't think they'll be too bothered by being the road team here. Yes, home teams have won at roughly an 80 percent clip, all-time, in these Game 7's. But that still means the road team wins some of the time and in this instance w/ the visitors being favored, it speaks volumes about how the linesmakers perceive this series. I've had LA rated as the better team all season and this series has not changed my mind on that. When it comes to coaching, I give a big edge to Doc Rivers over Kevin McHale. Corey Brewer and Josh Smith both scored 19 pts for Houston in the Game 6 come from behind shocker, but I wouldn't expect either to post those kind of numbers this afternoon. Brewer is averaging just 9.4 PPG in the playoffs while Smith is an erratic shooter at best that can't be counted on to be better than 50% from the field in B2B games. He'd actually scored just 17 points total in the previous three games. While it seems as if the value on the home team is "too good to pass up," I think it's a case of "too good to be true," so I'll stick w/ the Clips, who I predicted to win this series at the start. 8* LA Clippers |
|||||||
05-15-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Washington Wizards -2.5 | Top | 94-91 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): I have yet to play the Wizards in this series, but at home and facing elimination in Game 6, they are a good play laying a short number from where I sit. Atlanta is a little lucky to be up in this series. They needed an Al Horford layup in the final seconds to pull out Game 5 at home, which was an ugly affair that featured 42 combined turnovers and overall poor shooting. Washington has only failed to cover two games in the playoffs, one of them by just half a point as the Hawks made their free throws late. Atlanta is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has been leading in a playoff series, not to mention 6-21 ATS their L27 second round games. Lay the short number. With John Wall back in the lineup, the Wiz led by as many as nine w/ just six minutes to go in the game Wednesday. Though Wall turned the ball over six times and didn't make a single three-point basket, I thought he still played well as he scored 15 pts, had seven assists and four steals. Overall, the team will improve upon its woeful 37.5% shooting from Game 5. Paul Pierce didn't make a single two-point bucket, which is unlikely to happen again. In fact, aside from Marcin Gortat, not a single Wizards' player had what I'd call a "good shooting night." Note that after scoring 85 pts or less, the Wiz are 6-2 SU this season. Doubly good is the fact they are 8-3 Under after allowing 85 pts or less. Even in victory, it was an ugly game for the Hawks as well in Game 5. They were just 41% overall from the field, including 5 of 22 from three-point range. Their long-distance shooting, a major strength during the regular season, has disappointed in this series. I think the most likely scenario here is the Hawks lose tonight and then go back home to take Game 7. They are just 2-3 SU/ATS as a road underdog of three points or less this season. Washington allows just 96.6 PPG at home. They live to fight another day. 8* Washington |
|||||||
05-14-15 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers -8.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): After taking Houston in Game 5, I'm saying staving off elimination was a "one-time deal" for them as I expect the Clippers to bounce back w/ the kind of big win we saw from them here at home in Games 3 & 4. In those contests, they held the Rockets to an average of just 97 PPG, winning by an average of 29 PPG. That cannot be ignored. Nor can the fact that home teams off a DD loss in Round 2 of the playoffs have cashed at better than a 60 percent clip the last 20+ years. While a team facing elimination is always going to give you its "best shot," in this case I just don't think that the Rockets' best shot will be good enough. Home court is pretty critical here. Houston has lost straight up all five times this season in which it has been a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. They have lost 9 of their last 10 at Staples Center vs. the Clippers and three of four playoff road games overall. Defensively, they allow 105.0 points per game away from home and combined with the expected decline on offense, it all adds up to a bad situation for the Rockets tonight. Of course, back at home, you can expect improvement from Los Angeles as well. They shot just 41.8% overall in Gm 5, but have been above 52% their last three home games. Four players - Redick, Rivers, Barnes & Crawford were a combined 9 of 41 from the field in Game 5. Collective improvement there is all but guaranteed. Off a SU loss as a favorite, the Clippers are 13-5 straight up this year. Through the first four games of this series, the Clippers had completely dominated. They pulled off three double digit wins & in the game that they lost, they led going into the fourth quarter following a 65-point first half. Game 5 was what I would call a "mail-in game," one where there was no sense of urgency for the Clippers. Once the game got out of hand, there was no real incentive to come back. That's not the case here. Lose this game & they'd have to go back to Houston for a winner take all, Game 7. Given what we saw in the two previous games in LA, I expect more of the same and the Clips to finish off the series in blowout fashion. 10* LA Clippers |
|||||||
05-12-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets +3 | Top | 103-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:35 ET): Because of the last two games in Los Angeles, there's been a dramatic shift in the way these teams are being priced for Game 5 here in Houston. The Rockets now come in as a home dog, which I feel is a nice value considering not only the fact the team is 13-4 ATS this season when off a double digit loss, but they are also 8-1 ATS the L9 times they've been a home dog of three points or less. Yes, the Clippers have dramatically outplayed the Rockets in this series, even when w/o Chris Paul, but I think the public is overreacting a bit to what they've seen the last two games. Remember that they were betting the Rockets like wildfire for Game 1 when Paul was out. The case of Atlanta being bet to the role of road favorite for Game 3 vs. Washington (after it was announced John Wall would not play) also serves as precedent here. Houston won't win the series, but they'll live to fight another day. This has simply not been the same Rockets team that we saw dominate Dallas in Round 1. They are 0-4 ATS in the series and really have been outplayed in 15 of the 16 quarters. It's been B2B 25+ point losses and this "Hack-A-Jordan" strategy simply has not worked as it's taken Houston out of its own offensive rhythm. I look for HC Kevin McHale to abandon that particular strategy tonight due to the season being on the line. I also didn't understand McHale's decision in the last game to have Jason Terry be the primary ball-handler. That limits James Harden's ability to get to the free throw line, something he did w/ great frequency during the regular season, but he's only 5th in FT attempts here in the playoffs. Again, look for McHale to change up his strategy here. Also, at home, Harden is more likely to have the calls "go his way." Defensively, the Clippers are not great. They yield 102.4 PPG on the road, so the fact that a high-scoring team like Houston has failed to break that benchmark in three of four games in the series is somewhat shocking. Houston's own defense is typically much better at home than on the road as they are allowing about six points per game fewer. Adjustments can be made from game to game within a series and I believe Houston will make the necessary ones to stay alive for another game. 10* Houston |
|||||||
05-11-15 | Golden State Warriors -4.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 101-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
8* Golden State (9:35 ET): This has been a crazy postseason thus far, but perhaps the craziest part of all is the top-seeded Warriors having dropped B2B games to fall behind Memphis in this best of seven series. The Grizzlies are clearly a totally different animal w/ PG Mike Conley back in the lineup, but Golden State has not dropped three consecutive games all season and I don't expect them to do so now w/ their season effectively hanging in the balance. Memphis has done an outstanding job defensively since Conley's return, holding the top scoring team in the league to just 89.5 PPG, but that can last for only so long. Look for Curry and Thompson to get back on track here and lead the team to a crucial victory. Not only was Golden State a season-worst 6 for 26 from three-point range, missing several open ones to boot, but they also went just 19 for 28 at the free throw line. Steph Curry went just 8 for 21 overall from the field. After being held under 40 pts in the 1st half just once during the regular season, it's now happened to the Warriors in B2B games. Again, that's due for a correction, right? When trailing in a playoff series, GSW is 5-1 against the spread the last three seasons. Now just 2-8 ATS its L10 games overall, this Warriors team was too good during the regular season not to turn things around. Memphis has clearly forced Golden State out of its comfort zone here, but there were some adjustments made by the Warriors late in Game 3 that I liked. For one, they started doubling in the post, daring the Grizzlies' guards to beat them. It almost worked as they nearly rallied from 19 pts down. Two games should not erase what the Warriors have done all year as they were the first team since Boston in 2007-08 to outscore its opponents by a double digit margin for the year. Look for them to even this series up w/ a big win tonight. 8* Golden State |
|||||||
05-11-15 | Atlanta Hawks -4.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Hawks ought to be ashamed of themselves for dropping Game 3 in Washington as the Wizards were w/o John Wall as they will be here as well. Yes, that game was decided on a Paul Pierce buzzer-beater, but Atlanta actually found itself down by as many as 21 in the fourth quarter before mounting a furious rally. The loss dropped the Hawks to 5-20 ATS in second round playoff games, but the good news is this season has seen the team go 10-3 ATS/11-3 SU following an outright loss as a favorite. As I said prior to Game 2, I just don't believe that the Wizards are as good as their 6-1 SU/ATS record this postseason might seem to indicate. Lay the points as Atlanta evens this series up. So far in this series, the Hawks have not shot the ball well - at all. Three-point shooting, a major strength during the regular season, in particular has been an issue. They are just 30 for 90 in the series. The starting five collectively shot just 37.5% in Game 3, scoring only 51 total points. Improvement is likely and should be expected. Paul Milsap was dealing w/ the flu Saturday and that definitely had a negative impact on the team. He scored just eight points in 22 minutes and the other four starters saw their respective shooting percentages dip noticeably w/ him off the court. Consider that Atlanta had the edge in points off turnovers, points in the paint and fast break points in Game 3. Assuming their outside shots begin to fall again, they should be just fine here. The Wizards are just 3-3 w/o Wall this year and backup Ramon Sessions hardly inspired much confidence for the future w/ his Game 3 performance of eight points on 2 of 10 shooting. Something that I feel certainly bears mentioning here is that Washington actually finished the regular season w/ the worst ATS record in the league. So, they've made up for that a bit here in the postseason, but in the larger picture, this team is still not a safe bet. Especially considering they're now w/o their best player for the forseeable future (no offense, Paul Pierce!) and have lost four of six overall to the Hawks this season. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
05-10-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 86-84 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (3:30 ET): Zig-zaggers (those taking the SU loser of the previous game) have been treated to a 2-0 ATS record so far in this series & I see that form "holding true" again here for Game 4 Sunday afternoon. After two pretty uncompetitive games in Cleveland, it was a back and forth affair won by the Bulls on a Derrick Rose buzzer-beater in Game 3. Considering the Cavs' two superstars - LeBron James and Kyrie Irving - both had what I'd call "off nights" Friday (combined 11 for 38 shooting) & the team was still in position to win (led for almost the entire first half & into the second, I'd say the predictable bounce back is in order. This is a similar rationale to when I played Cleveland in the 1st half of Game 2. Though I did play Chicago and they won in Game 3, that doesn't mean the team's shortcomings when playing on less than two days rest have been eradicated. While I expect both James and Irving to play better this afternoon, I don't have the same feeling for Derrick Rose, the Game 3 hero. As I've mentioned in previous analysis, his effective shooting percentage goes way down when he's not on at least two days' rest and you can't forget that he was actually just 10 for 26 from the field Friday night. Neither team actually shot well, although Cleveland did make 14 three-pointers thanks to the return of JR Smith (4 for 8), which is a good sign. Remember that w/ the exception of a home and home vs. Boston (towards the end of the regular season), where they rested key players, Cleveland has not dropped B2B games straight up since a healthy James returned to the lineup back in mid-January. Chicago is also now dealing w/ a key injury, that being the hamstring of Pau Gasol, which may keep him out here. Obviously, I think it's interesting that despite losing Game 3, the line has swung in Cleveland's favor as they closed as a 2.5-pt dog Friday night. But that could actually be a good thing because as previously noted, the Cavs are just 3-13 SU/ATS when taking points this year as opposed to 55-18 SU/40-33 ATS when favored. Look for James and company to even this series up. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
05-09-15 | Golden State Warriors -4 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 89-99 | Loss | -102 | 81 h 42 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:05 ET): The Warriors lost for the first time this postseason, shockingly dropping Game 2 by a score of 97-90 to the Grizzlies. I was on Memphis, plus the points, and have to say that even I was shocked by that final result. Then again, while they did sweep their first round series, it's hardly been the "same dominant Warriors" in the postseason that we were accustomed to seeing in the regular season. They are just 2-4 ATS in the playoffs & 2-7 ATS their last nine games overall. The Grizzlies now have PG Mike Conley back in the lineup and are getting points at home for the first time all season. But Golden State, off the rare SU loss, happens to be a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS when taking the court on three or more days rest. My money is on them bouncing back. Lay the points. Only four times this year have the Dubs lost B2B games. With this number being relatively short, you have to think a SU win will also bring home the cover in this one. Turning the ball over 20 times in Game 2 was a major problem, but one that I expect to be rectified here in Game 3. That was their first home regulation loss since November and they virtually trailed the whole way. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson aren't likely to shoot a combined 13 of 34 from the floor again (3 for 17 from three-point range) as 90 points was the team's lowest scoring output since the All-Star Break. Even on the road, things are due for a turnaround as they still average 107 PPG. As I wrote in my Game 2 analysis, Conley is a game-changer for the Grizzlies. But consider that even w/ him in the lineup, the team lost by 23 here at home to Golden State late in the regular season. Curry & Thompson went for a combined 66 pts in that game. As good as Memphis can be defensively, I just don't think they can lock down this opponent two games in a row and offensively they do not have the firepower to keep up w/ a likely Warriors' bounce back. For what it's worth, Golden State is a perfect 16-0 SU on Saturdays this season. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
05-08-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -1.5 | Top | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): Could this one be as easy as "whomever scores first, wins"? That's how each of the first two games in Cleveland went w/ the Bulls jumping out to a 13-2 lead in Game 1 and the Cavs doing the same in Gm 2, and in both instances neither looked back. I do expect more of a back and forth affair here in Game 3, but despite Chicago's well publicized "woes" when taking the floor w/ one or less days' rest, I expect them to re-take the lead in the series. Though they get J.R. Smith back from suspension tonight, Iman Shumpert injured his groin in Game 2 and depth remains a very real concern for Cleveland. Lay the short number. For the Cavs to win, not just this game, but the series, they'll need to heavily rely on LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. That duo, James in particular, were up to the task in Game 2, but can they consistently do that? We know that, statistically speaking, the Bulls are much worse when on minimal rest, but might that now be the same w/ the depth shy Cavaliers? Shumpert may not even play tonight, which would be a killer as he's been the one player on the supporting cast to really contribute to this point. He scored 37 points in the first two games and made 8 of 17 from three-point range. Who knows if a rusty Smith (who did not have a good series vs. Boston) can make up for that potential lost production. Meanwhile, you have to think the Bulls' trio of Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler and Pau Gasol will do better than a combined 14 of 42 from the field, which is what they were at in the last game. Cleveland, interestingly, is only 3-12 ATS this season as an underdog. Granted, many of those games came during James' so-called "sabbatical" early in the year. But included in there is an 0-3 SU/ATS mark as a road dog of three points or less. Chicago, meanwhile, is 4-1 SU/ATS this year as home chalk of three pts or less. Defensively, Game 2 was the Bulls' worst of the postseason as previously they'd been allowing an average of just 89 PPG. The Cavs are giving up 101 PPG on the road this year. The Bulls actually outscored Cleveland in each of the final three quarters Wednesday. 10* Chicago |
|||||||
05-06-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6.5 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:35 ET): The Clippers have already accomplished what they needed to do here in Houston, and that's win a game. Surprisingly, they came in and took Game 1 of this best of seven series, 117-101 on Monday, despite not having their leader (PG Chris Paul) and being just 48 hours removed from a thrilling Game 7 victory over the Spurs. Obviously, I'm a little biased, but if I'm Clips HC Doc Rivers, I sit Paul for Game 2 and save him for the rest of the series now that you've "stolen" the homecourt advantage. As for tonight, I see the Rockets winning in a blowout as Washington last night and Cleveland two nights ago (Memphis w/o Conley as well) are the standard for what happens in the playoffs when you're down a key contributor. Paul, or no Paul, note that this play stands! Lay the points. I knew that Houston wasn't great defensively (part of the reason I took the Over in Gm 1!), but giving up 71 points in the second half, at home, is unforgivable. Especially considering LA was w/o Paul. Blake Griffin, who in some respects has actually become "underrated," turned in his second straight triple double in leading the 117-101 outright upset. A third straight is certainly unlikely. Depth is an issue for the Clippers, with or w/o Paul, as their bench rates as one of the worst in the entire league. Other than Jamal Crawford, there really isn't a single reserve they can count on consistently. Austin Rivers started in place of Paul for Gm 1, scoring 17 pts, but consider in the previous three games he scored only five points total. The Clippers are hardly stout defensively themselves, as they've allowed an average of 102.1 points per game on the road this season. A big issue for the Rockets in Gm 1 was that they made only 14 of their 24 free throw attempts after making at least 70 percent in every regular season matchup vs. the Clips. That's owed to Dwight Howard going 4 for 9, but after splitting the four regular season games vs. LA, all w/o Howard, theoretically the Rockets should be in better shape w/ him in this series. James Harden scored only 20 pts in Game 1, and was responsible for nine of the team's 24 turnovers, which the Clips converted into 34 points. Houston was also outrebounded 42-35 Monday, despite having Howard, something I expect to be different this time around. The Rockets are an amazing 12-1 SU/ATS off a SU loss as a favorite this season, so w/ the Clippers 0-7 ATS the L3 years when leading in a playoff series, tonight is a clear time to "zig zag." 10* Houston |
|||||||
05-05-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
8* Memphis (10:35 ET): I'll concede to you that things do not look particularly good in this series for the underdog Grizzlies, particularly if they don't get much from PG Mike Conley. But Conley has come out and said he "hopes to play" in Game 2 and that is just what the team needs to stay close w/ the heavily favored Warriors here. If there was ever a time to "zig zag" (i.e. play the SU loser of the previous game), it would be in this situation as Memphis is going to be desperate to stay in the series, plus as I talked about when I played Boston plus the points against Cleveland in Game 2 of their first round series, double digit dogs tend to be excellent zig zag plays in the playoffs as they've cashed roughly 65% of the time the L25 seasons. Take the points here. Conley's presence would be a huge difference-maker for the Grizzlies tonight. Note that this play stands whether or not Conley actually plays. If he does, there will be obvious improvement on both the offensive & defensive ends of the floor for Memphis. Conley is the team's best three-point shooter, which I talked about in my Game 1 analysis, and sure enough w/o him the Grizzlies were just 3 of 12 from behind the arc Sunday. Conley would also help defensively as he would be tasked w/ checking MVP Steph Curry, allowing Tony Allen to guard Klay Thompson. Keep in mind though that even w/o Conley, the Grizzlies lost by "only" 15 points Sunday. All things considered, that is not bad. All that the linesmakers are requiring here is two more made baskets. Undermanned to begin with, Memphis really got into trouble in the series opener when both Zach Randolph and Jeff Green got into foul trouble. Golden State is a good shooting team to begin with, but they were even better than normal in Game 1, especially from behind the arc, where they connected on 13 of 28 attempts. Three-point shooting was definitely the difference as the Warriors were +30 in point differential in that department. I just can't see that discrepancy being repeated. Note that the Grizzlies stayed within four points of the Warriors w/o Conley back on April 13th. With or without him here, look for them to stay inside the number. 8* Memphis |
|||||||
05-05-15 | Washington Wizards v. Atlanta Hawks -6 | Top | 90-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (8:05 ET): In addition to really liking the Under, I'm also on the Hawks in this game. I just feel that there's no way they shoot as poorly as they did in Game 1. I realize that notion somewhat flies in the face of also playing the Under, but at the time I can certainly envision a scenario where the Hawks improve on their woeful 37.8 percent shooting from Sunday and yet this contest still finds a way to stay Under the total. Remember how I said in the analysis for my Under play how the Hawks are 9-2 Under this season when seeking revenge for a home loss? (If not, please go back and re-read!) Well, they are also 8-2-1 ATS in such situations. This was a very good home team in the regular season (also 3-0 SU here in the 1st rd) and I'm simply not buying that Washington is actually as good as its looked through its first five playoff games. Lay the points. Additionally, the Wizards come into this game a bit banged up. Both members of the starting backcourt, Bradley Beal (ankle) and John Wall (hand) sustained injuries in Game 1 and that should hamper their production tonight. Beal scored his career-high for a playoff game (28 points) Sunday, which is unlikely to be duplicated. Also, remember that the Wizards had a massive edge in rest going into Game 1 as the Hawks were working on a short turnaround after closing out the Nets just two days prior. It certainly didn't seem to affect Atlanta at the start as they raced out to a double-digit lead at halftime, but in the second half it did appear that they ran out of gas. Similar to the Over having cashed in every matchup this season between these two, I just don't think Washington can continue its current run of 5-0 ATS in the playoffs and 7-0 ATS L7 overall. Also, again, Atlanta is not going to shoot as poorly here as they did in the last game. They were a woeful 15 of 46 on uncontested shots Sunday, which would almost be impossible for them to repeat. The same holds true for their fourth quarter shooting, which saw them go 5 for 28 from the field, including 1 of 10 on three-pointers. For some reason, HC Mike Budenholzer had his starting five on the court together for only 18 minutes in Game 1. After losing a game for the first time all season in which it led going into the fourth quarter, look for the Hawks to respond w/ a big Gm 2 victory. 8* Atlanta |
|||||||
05-04-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 | Top | 99-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): I expect the Bulls to be a "trendy" upset pick for the series, but that's neglecting the fact that the Cavs still have not only the two best players in the Eastern Conference, but the best one in the world. Not to mention, they have the homecourt edge as well, and save for a meaningless game vs. Boston near the end of the regular season when they rested starters, Cleveland has not lost a home game in nearly four months. They have a massive edge in rest here, having had the last eight days off, and knew that they would be playing Chicago all along even as the Bulls struggled to put away Milwaukee. The Bulls' 54-point win over the Bucks in the close out game (which I was on!) works to our advantage here as it's kept the number down. Lay the points in Game 1. The absence of Kevin Love looms large for the Cavs in their quest to win the NBA Championship, but I think they'll be just fine in the Eastern Conference portion of the draw. They still have LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, a 1-2 combination that no other team in the league can match. JR Smith is suspended for these first two games, but Iman Shumpert should slide into the starter's role nicely. Because it's the playoffs, depth is less of a concern, plus having had all that time off one could assume that both James and Irving are ready to "go the distance" if necessary. James has owned Chicago in past playoff meetings, both with Cleveland and Miami, averaging 27.1 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.5 assists. He will be the difference maker in the series, as per usual. Here at home, the team's average margin of victory is 7.6 PPG & that's even factoring in the underwhelming start to the season. Since January 15th, that avg MOV jumps to double digits. Chicago lost three of four regular season meetings w/ Cleveland, beating them only in the final game before the All-Star Break when the Cavs were w/o rest and off a 20-pt win over Miami. Cleveland scored 54+ pts in the 1H in each of its three wins and only failed to cover in the final matchup due to poor free throw shooting, which can be rectified. The Bulls' overall sloppiness (100 turnovers in six games) in the first round series was nothing new and as noted here before, this has not been the usually sound defensive team we've come to expect under HC Tom Thobodeau. In particular, look for Derrick Rose to have a tough time staying in front of Kyrie Irving. Joakim Noah isn't 100 percent either. The favorite is undervalued in this spot. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
05-03-15 | Washington Wizards v. Atlanta Hawks -5 | Top | 104-98 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (1:05 ET): What we have here is a classic case of overreaction to the results from the previous round. Washington swept Toronto, a series that going in many thought would be even, while top seed Atlanta was pushed harder than expected by a sub-.500 Brooklyn team. The Wizards covered all four games and are now on a 6-0 ATS run dating back to the regular season while the Hawks hadn't covered in seven consecutive contests before the final two against Brooklyn. So, the end result is some pretty solid line value w/ Atlanta, who did win all three home games in the 1st round, plus they took three of four in the regular season from this Wizards squad, including both here at Philips Arena. I'm laying the points in Game 1. As I said when playing the Hawks in Gm 5 of the Nets series, this is a pretty strong home team. They are 38-6 SU at Philips Arena this season, including a 7-1 ATS mark when laying between -3.5 and -6. As I said earlier, they did beat the Wizards both times they hosted them in the regular season - by a combined 40 points, in fact, and overall are 5-1 SU when hosting their division rival the L3 seasons. I realize that Washington has a 7-1 SU road record the L2 years in the playoffs, but overall they have a losing record (19-24 SU) away from home for the year and the only time they beat Atlanta during the regular season came late in the year when the Hawks were resting starters. Also, don't put much stock into the added rest the Wizards have here as they are just 2-2 SU (1-2-1 ATS) when playing w/ 3+ days rest this season. Atlanta holds teams to an average of 94.9 PPG here at home and has a scoring differential of +8.4. I think that the Hawks' late season malaise and their struggles w/ the Nets can be attributed to a lack of urgency. I now expect the team to show why it won 60 games in the regular season. They destroyed Brooklyn in the close out game, winning by 24 pts, and are 20-10-1 ATS (24-7 SU) when coming off a double digit victory. They are also 25-10 ATS when facing a team w/ a winning record. For the sake of comparison, Washington is just 8-13 SU/9-10-2 ATS its L21 games vs. teams w/ winning records & that's including the sweep over Toronto. The Hawks are the better team and at home, laying a short number. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
05-02-15 | San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (7:35 ET): By now, I'm assuming you've read all about how home teams have historically dominated Game 7's. They've won roughly 80 percent of the time, so laying a small number, naturally the public's lean here is going to be to the host Clippers. However, I'm taking the points with the defending NBA Champs. Every year since 2008 we've had at least one team seeded 6th or lower advance to the second round. We haven't had one yet this year & this is obviously our last chance for the trend to continue. I laid off Game 6 because I didn't want to lay points, but I picked the Spurs to win this series beforehand and I'm not coming off that assertion. Take the points. The road team has won four of the previous six games in this series, so home court certainly hasn't had much effect to this point. Late in the regular season, LA's Blake Griffin even questioned how much of a home court edge his team really had. As a home favorite of three points or less this season, the Clips have gone just 3-3 SU and ATS. Overall, they are just 17-27 ATS at Staples Center. I also certainly think experience should count for something in this spot. The Spurs are 28-12 ATS under Greg Popovich when tied in a playoff series, including 9-3 ATS the L3 season (2-0 ATS in this series). The Clippers, meanwhile, are 3-10 ATS in such situations, including 2-6 ATS the L3 years. Assuming this is a close game, the Spurs' experience definitely gives them the edge. In the 10 playoff games that have been decided by six points or less or gone into overtime in these playoffs, the team w/ more experience in terms of total playoff games played has won straight up. Bench scoring is also a major edge for the road team in this one. At this point, HC Doc Rivers might as well have his son Austin invite his friends down to the bench, because beyond the starting five, the Clips are getting next to nothing. The Game 4 win at San Antonio was the exception to that rule, but for the series, the Spurs' bench has outscored its Clippers' counterparts by 20.8 points per game. In Game 6, the edge was 48-15. I don't see the Spurs' starters being outscored by almost 40 points again here. They are 12-6 SU when off a SU loss as a favorite this season. 10* San Antonio |
|||||||
05-01-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets +4.5 | Top | 111-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): We already have one Game 7 in the first round (Spurs-Clippers), so how about the possibility of another? I'll take the points here w/ the underdog Nets, who being that the number is so small I give a great shot to for pulling the outright upset. The home team has won all five games in this series, including Atlanta (who I was on) in Game 5, but that took some late free throws to cover that number. Brooklyn has played the top seed very tough in this series, covering each of the first four games in fact, so w/ the Hawks 0-6 ATS when leading in a playoff series the L3 years, they seem ripe to give one right back. Facing elimination here, you know that we will be getting the Nets' best shot. The team leading after the 1Q has gone on to win every game in this series. Given the sense of urgency for the Nets, I expect that trend to continue in tonight's game. Consider that in franchise history, Brooklyn has NEVER dropped a Game 6 in the first round, which is pretty remarkable when you think about it. This has also been an even series w/ Atlanta now just +9 in points scored thanks to the Game 5 victory. Despite being the road team Wednesday, the Nets' bench outscored their Hawks' counterparts 41-16, which is not a good sign for the top seed w/ things shifting to the Barclays Center. Three Atlanta starters played 40+ minutes two nights ago and the other two (Horford, Teague) suffered minor injuries. The Hawks have routinely given up leads in the individual games of this series, so I feel it's risky to lay points w/ them again. In my Game 5 analysis, I said to expect little from Deron Williams for Brooklyn after he matched a career playoff-high w/ 35 pts in Game 4. He shot just 2 of 8 and scored only five points. So, he's now probably due to play better and the same can be said for big man Brook Lopez, who I don't believe the Hawks have the capability to stop. Lopez had just 15 pts and three rebounds in Game 5, numbers that will almost certainly go up tonight. The Nets have won and covered three of the four games this season where they were home dogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, including Games 3 & 4 in this series. Take the points. 8* Brooklyn |
|||||||
04-30-15 | Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 120-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
10* Chicago (7:05 ET): Once upon a time, the Bulls held a commanding 3-0 series lead and had the Bucks on the verge of elimination. But following a GW layup by Jerryd Bayless (burnt Derrick Rose) to take Game 4 at the buzzer, Milwaukee also won Gm 5 (as 8-pt dogs) and now is on the verge of becoming just the fourth team in league history to force a deciding seventh game after initially trailing in the series 3-0. If you're a believer in the concept of "momentum," then you're probably leaning towards the Bucks, who are taking points at home tonight, but I'm NOT one of those people as I still maintain Chicago is the far superior team and this is a short number. Lay the points. Turnovers have been a major issue in this series so far, particularly the the last two games where the Bulls have given the ball away an astounding 40+ times. Combine that with the poor shooting in Game 5 (34.4 percent overall) and it's no surprise Chicago lost outright Monday. The turnover issue can be corrected. The poor shooting is due to improve. In Gm 5, they missed their first nine shots from the field and were a woeful 4 of 22 from three-point range for the game. Consider that in the previous game, they made 10 of 18 from distance and 48.5% overall. Points in the paint and defensive rebounding percentage have also been down the L2 games. In the fourth quarter of Gm 4, they were a horrifying 3 of 20 on shots in the paint. Again, this all has to improve, right? Having had two days off is also a benefit to Chicago, according to the numbers, specifically Rose. In the two games in this series (1 and 3) where he's had two days off, he's played much better, scoring a combined 57 points on 21 of 39 shooting. This is right in line w/ the regular season as Rose shoots 56.1 percent overall when having 2+ days rest compared to 43.0 percent w/ less time off between games. As a team, the Bulls are 12-3 SU this season when taking the court with two days of rest exact. Milwaukee is just 5-8 SU in such situations. Look for the Bulls to finally put the Bucks away. 10* Chicago |