Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-29-15 | Portland Trailblazers +6 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 93-99 | Push | 0 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
8* Portland (9:35 ET): The Blazers, a very good home team, stayed alive Monday night w/ a thrilling 99-92 victory, their first over Memphis in eight tries this season. Despite that win, I get the sense that the prevailing wisdom here is that this series is over, at least that's what it seems bettors are thinking as an overwhelming percentage of wagers have been placed on the Grizzlies here at home for Game 5. You know me, I often like to go the other way in such situations and that's what I'll do here by taking the points w/ a Portland team that is better than what it's shown so far in the series. With Grizzlies' PG Mike Conley being out indefinitely, that's a huge break for them. Conley's absence not only hurts Memphis, but it's also a huge benefit to Blazers' PG Damian Lillard, who went off in Game 4 for a game-high 32 points, 12 of those coming in the decisive fourth quarter. Matched up almost exclusively against Conley in the first two games, Lillard managed to shoot just 10 for 37 from the field and score 32 pts total. I'd look for a big game from him tonight. Plus, unlike the first two games here in Memphis, the Blazers will have SG Arron Afflalo on the court. Though he hasn't done much upon returning so far, he and CJ McCollum at least give Lillard some support out of the backcourt. McCollum has scored a total of 44 pts the L2 games. Also, keep in mind that Portland won Monday night despite All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge going just 1 for 11 from the field in the second half. He, like Afflalo, figures to be more of a factor tonight. Though the final results have been one-sided, most of these Memphis-Portland games have been rather close. The fact that the Blazers have not won at the Fed Ex Forum in over two years is something that screams "just due" and I'll gladly take the points w/ a team averaging over 102 PPG and facing elimination. Without Conley, the Grizzlies scored only 48 pts in the first half Monday and it took Portland missing 20 of 25 shots in the third quarter (including 0 for 9 from Aldridge) for them to get back in it. This should be a close, back & forth affair, that comes down to the final minute. 8* Portland |
|||||||
04-29-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks -8.5 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): While the home team is a perfect 4-0 straight up, it has been Brooklyn that has covered every game so far in the series. They even things up a two games apiece w/ an overtime win Monday, coming from behind to take the game 120-115 as six-point dogs after trailing by as many as 12 in the third quarter. Me personally, I was on the Over in that one, an easy winner that cashed by 40 points thanks to the extra five minutes of play (would have still cashed in regulation). Now with things moving back to Atlanta, I'm willing to bank on the top seeded Hawks taking care of business, just like they did in the first two games, only this time you can look for the final margin to be even greater. Lay the points. In Game 4, the Hawks dared the Nets to beat them from three-point range and the underdogs were up to the challenge. In fact, Brooklyn finished the game a pretty ridiculous 14 of 31 from three-point range, easily their highest percentage for any game in the series. Consider for a moment that during the regular season, the Nets finished 24th in made three-point attempts and 26th in percentage. PG Deron Williams also had - by far - his best showing of this series w/ 35 pts scored. Williams, who found himself on the bench for the final 16 minutes of Game 3, went a combined 2 for 15 from the field the previous two games. So I'd certainly expect plenty of regression when it comes to his performance tonight, especially w/ the game being played on the road. As for Atlanta's offense, I really don't think there's any issue. They scored 115 points on exactly 100 possessions in Game 4 (after shooting just 39 percent the first three games), and that's with players such as Kyle Korver and Al Horford struggling from the floor. I wouldn't count on Korver, the NBA's best three-point shooter during the regular season, missing three straight times again like he did at the end of Game 4. Here at home, the Hawks are now 37-6 SU for the season, holding teams to an average of just 94.8 PPG. Brooklyn, just 19-24 on the road, scores only 96.8 PPG on the road. I look for the Hawks to bounce back here w/ a blowout victory. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
04-28-15 | Dallas Mavericks +7 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:05 ET): Yesterday, we saw two teams - Milwaukee & Portland - stave off elimination. Now, Dallas will try to do the same for a second time. Like the Bucks yday, the Mavs will have to do so on the road, but they are catching a generous number and remember that over the last two games they have scored a whopping 249 points - all in regulation - against the Rockets. Speaking of points, the spread here is higher than it was for either Game 1 or 2 in Houston and while the Rockets covered those games, note that four of their six wins against the Mavericks this year have been by seven points or less. I say take the points as Dallas looks to stay alive for one more game. Dallas does have a winning road record this year (23-20 SU). They have yet to win in Houston (0-4 SU), but both games in the regular season were close and really so too were the first two games of this series. Obviously, a cold-shooting night by the Rockets helped greatly in Game 4, but again Dallas had no problem scoring against a Houston defense that really isn't very good despite the presence of Dwight Howard. While the Rockets are unlikely to go 2 for 21 from three-point range again, I also can't see the Mavs only making 9 of 21 free throw attempts again either. Despite that and being -19 in attempts from the charity stripe, they still won by double digits Sunday, which is impressive. Rajon Rondo being gone is a benefit to the underdog here. Rick Carlisle is clearly a better coach than Kevin McHale and it seemed as if he finally found a lineup that worked. Six Mavs scored in double figures in Game 4 and three had double doubles, including the unheralded JJ Barea and Al-Farouq Aminu. Interestingly, Dirk Nowitzki only had 16 pts Sunday and I take that as a good sign that the team was still able to win. While Houston typically has bounced back well from a loss this year, they don't play good enough defense to cover a spread this large against a desperate team looking to stay alive. 10* Dallas |
|||||||
04-27-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls -8.5 | Top | 94-88 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:05 ET): Milwaukee was able to keep its season alive w/ a buzzer-beater in Game 4 from Jerryd Bayless, thanks to a defensive breakdown by Derrick Rose. However, I don't think I'm alone in thinking the Bulls' advancing is mere formality and now that they are back at home for Game 5, I smell a blowout. The Bucks failed to cover in the first two games of this series, both here at the United Center, where they've now gone 0-4 straight up and against the spread this season. With second round opponent Cleveland having finished off a sweep yday, the sense of urgency for Chicago to end this series becomes even greater. Lay the points. The Bucks definitely played much better in Games 3 and 4, holding double digit leads in both contests. But again, those were at home. They are just 19-25 SU on the road this season and the tremendous edge they enjoyed Saturday in terms of bench production (47-19!) likely won't be present here. Also, I can't see Chicago turning the ball over 28 times again as that was easily their season-high. The Bulls also should see more production tonight from Nikola Mirotic, who missed Game 3 entirely and scored just 5 pts in 20 minutes of action in Game 4. Being back at home obviously helps as well, especially considering they've won nine in a row by an average of 12.9 points per game here. Milwaukee has not scored more than 91 points in any of their four visits to Chicago this season. In Games 1 & 2, they were held to just 86.5 PPG and in the regular season they were held to just 79 PPG. The last time they won a game at the United Center was December of 2013. Bench scoring and turnovers have kept them in this series, but again, it's hard to have those advantages on the road as both statistics tend to be quite volatile. The Bucks have shot below 40 percent for the series and what I though was interesting is that the Bulls actually had their best shooting game of the series (48.5 percent) in Game 4 as they were 10 for 18 from three-point range. Simply by cutting down the turnovers, the Bulls should have no problem covering the spread in this one. 8* Chicago |
|||||||
04-25-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trailblazers -3 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:35 ET): There's been a shocking lack of intrigue so far in the first round of the NBA playoffs w/ five of the six series that have played three games standing at 3-0. The other two are 2-0. This here is one of those two and for Portland, if they don't win, it's basically now season over. They are 0-6 SU vs. the Grizzlies this season, something I consider to be shocking as I actually had the Blazers rated higher in my own personal power rankings for basically the entirety of the season. The good news for Game 3 is that the series is shifting to the Moda Center where Portland has played far better all year. I say to lay the points. At home this season, the Blazers went 32-9 straight up, outscoring their opponents by more than eight points per game. Offensively, they average about two points per game more, but the real improvement comes on the defensive end of the floor where they are down to 95.8 points per game allowed, which is basically a six point difference from the road average. They'll need an effort along those lines here considering the way the offense has struggled so far in this series (84 PPG), but again those offensive numbers should improve dramatically w/ the return home where they average 104.1 PPG. Both LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard have not shot the ball well in the first two games. That's destined to change. Arron Afflalo is likely to be in the starting lineup tonight. That's huge for the Blazers. His replacement CJ McCollum, who averaged 15.6 PPG this month coming into the series, has really struggled w/ just eight points on 4 of 21 shooting. Remember that Afflalo was the replacement for Wes Matthews (out for the year). He's a double digit scorer. Center Chris Kaman, listed as questionable for Game 3, told reporters that he plans on playing. The bottom line here is that I just cannot see Memphis continuing to beat Portland at the rate they've been doing the last several seasons. 10* Portland |
|||||||
04-25-15 | Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Pelicans +7 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Most are going to want to call for Golden State to wrap things up here, but it cannot be ignored that the Pelicans probably should have won Game 3 and are now 3-0 ATS in this series. And for some reason the number is going UP (from the last game) despite those previous results. New Orleans has actually led outright much of the way the last two games. They infamously blew a 20-point lead going into the fourth quarter Thursday night, which admittedly will be difficult to forget, especially because they led by 17 w/ just six minutes to go. But considering the way they've played in the series, taking the points is the way to go. New Orleans outshot Golden State in Game 3, significantly, 51.1 percent to 41.1 percent. They were at nearly 60 percent in the first half and bench scoring was 2:1 in their favor. Simply put, it was a game they could have - and should have - won. Thanks to this series, the Pelicans continue to "clean up" as underdogs; they're now 28-13 ATS as dogs this year and going back to last season, they are now 11-4 ATS the L15 times they have been a home dog in the +6.5 to +9 range. Golden State is just 2-9 ATS in April and while they have been a double digit fave in many of those games, that includes a 0-4 ATS mark vs. New Orleans including a regular season loss. The Warriors' two wins here have been by four and six points this season and both required overtime. Each of it's last seven victories have been by 11 pts or less. Anthony Davis is averaging 30 PPG and 11 RPG in this series and should keep the Pelicans within striking distance again tonight. New Orleans has basically covered wire to wire the L2 games. 8* New Orleans |
|||||||
04-24-15 | Toronto Raptors +5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 99-106 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Raptors have already committed the "ultimate sin" here by dropping the first two games of the series at home. This makes it highly unlikely that they will advance past the first round for the first time since '01 (only time in franchise history, in fact), but I do like them now that they're are in the underdog role for Game 3. Obviously, the prevailing wisdom here is that the "series is over" w/ Washington returning home up 2-0, but the Wizards are hardly the most trustworthy bunch themselves and I certainly can see Toronto winning one of the two games here to get things back "North of the Border." With a fairly dramatic shift in the line, I say to take the points here. The Raptors do sport a winning road record (22-19 SU) and interestingly enough, averaged more points per game there than they did at home. In fact, I'm not sure there's a team in the league that can match Toronto's 105.3 PPG away from home. Game 2 was clearly higher scoring than Game 1 and take note that the Wizards are just 5-15 against the spread after allowing 105+ points the previous game. They are also only 2-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 pts w/ three outright losses. Going back to the previous two seasons, they're just 8-20 ATS in that range and hardly a .500 team straight up (15-13). Even though they're now the home team, it's highly unlikely that the Wizards will make 27 of 39 field goal attempts again, which is something they did across the two middle quarters in Game 2. Things started well enough for Toronto on Tuesday as they led 12-2 out of the gate and 31-26 at the end of the first quarter. They really need Kyle Lowry to step his game up as he's been ineffective due to foul trouble & injury in the first two games. I keep going back to the fact that Toronto swept the regular season series from Washington, so it's not like they can't beat this team. With their backs against the ball, expect the best performance of the series from them here in Game 3. 10* Toronto. |
|||||||
04-24-15 | Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks +1 | Top | 130-128 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:05 ET): While the Mavs have clearly looked overmatched in the first two games of this series, let us not forget the old adage that a series really hasn't started until the home team loses a game. Houston preserved homecourt advantage w/ wins in both Games 1 & 2, but it was a one-point game heading into the fourth quarter on Tuesday. No longer will Dallas have PG Rajon Rondo to kick around as he's effectively been permanently benched. That's fine too; he was more of the problem than the solution anyway. The loss of Chandler Parsons looms larger, but still I expect Dallas to win Game 3 here at home anyway and make this a competitive series. Back at home, it's highly unlikely that the Mavs will shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 2 where they were just 37.1% overall from the field, including 27.3% from three-point range. Benching Rondo looks to be a case of "addition by subtraction" as the team is -36 in point differential w/ him on the floor so far in this series. Sometimes adding a talented player to the mix simply doesn't work out and that's been the case here in Dallas w/ Rondo. The numbers bare this out. They were far more efficient offensively before his arrival and now they no longer have to worry about what a liability he's is at the free throw line either. The bottom line is that Rondo wasn't what HC Rick Carlisle wanted in a point guard and at home I expect the rest of the team to play hard for its coach. During the regular season, the Mavs went 27-14 SU while averaging 106.6 points per game here at home. Houston has admittedly beaten Dallas five of the six times they've played this year and also owns an impressive 26-15 SU road record. But a big key here could be that the Rockets allow 103 PPG away from home, about six full points more than they allow on a per game basis at home. I just can't agree with the linesmakers here that Dallas doesn't deserve at least some credit for being the home team now. Getting them as essentially a "pick 'em" seems like a real "buy low" situation and again I don't think the talent gap between these two teams is as severe as how it looked in the first two games. 8* Dallas |
|||||||
04-23-15 | Golden State Warriors -5 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:35 ET): While New Orleans has covered each of the first two games of this series (I had them in Game 2!), you get the sense that they really aren't capable of playing any better. They still lost the first two games, at Golden State, by seven and 10 pts respectively & overall have lost 12 of the past 13 matchups w/ the Warriors. So laying the small number shouldn't be too much of a problem. Overall, the Warriors haven't covered in their last five games. But in four of those, they've been a double digit favorite. Not only is this team 65-9 SU when favored this year, but they are 42-28-4 ATS in those same games. Lay the points. In Game 1, Golden State demonstrated that they were clearly the better team, but we already knew that coming into this series. They led by 15 after the first quarter and by as many as 25 late in the third before the Pelicans snuck through the back door. Game 2, as I anticipated, was a lot closer (tied entering 4th quarter) w/ New Orleans even leading outright much of the way. But in watching that game, you saw how hard it was for them to even maintain a lead. The Warriors made coming back "look easy," particularly in a second quarter where they shot the ball at a ridiculous 76 percent clip. While the offense will always grab the headlines, Golden State is holding New Orleans to just 98.6 pts per 100 possessions thus far and allowed only 87 pts total in Gm 2. To stay close, the Pelicans basically need Anthony Davis to play out of his mind. Davis has done his best in carrying the team thus far, but it simply hasn't been good enough. We saw the effects of him logging a career-high 45 minutes (for non-OT games) in Game 2 when he went scoreless from the floor in the fourth quarter in Game 2. The Warriors came into this series 10-1 against the spread when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Though they lost and needed OT to win in their two visits to the Big Easy during the regular season, the stakes are obviously higher here and we know who the better team is. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
04-22-15 | Portland Trailblazers +7 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 82-97 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): This series could not have gotten off to a worse start for the Blazers, who were blown out in Game 1, 100-86, and then had to deal w/ the fallout of a locker room sign which read "We don't lose to Spanish players" (in reference to the Grizzlies' Marc Gasol). Worse yet, the game was even more lopsided that the final score indicates as Portland trailed by 24 entering the fourth quarter. Going back to the end of the regular season, the team has now dropped five in a row - both SU and ATS. But I'll still call for them to bounce back here as the linesmakers have made what I feel is an overadjustment for Game 2. Take the points. Portland has yet to beat Memphis this year, losing all five matchups. That seems odd to me, given that most power ratings (including my own) would indicate these teams are fairly even. The Blazers are almost certain to play better tonight than they did in Game 1 where they shot just 33.7 percent overall from the field, including just 2 for 17 on drives. That was their worst shooting night of the entire season. PG Damian Lillard, in particular, had an "off-game" as he missed all six three-pointers he attempted and finished just 5 for 21 overall. Lillard's job here would be made easier if backcourt mate Aaron Afflalo returned (questionable). CJ McCollum failed to produce (1 for 8) in the starter's role Sunday night as remember the team's normal SG Wes Matthews is out. Meanwhile, I can't see Memphis getting 20 points against from Beno Udrih, which was his career playoff high. With the line adjustment for tonight, note that the Grizzlies are just 3-6 ATS this season as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. Like Portland, Memphis didn't finish the regular season strong as they dropped six of ten w/ the only win over a playoff team coming at the expense of 8-seed New Orleans. I'll still also point to the fact that the Blazers finished w/ the better point differential in the regular season. While a better team at home, I think they can keep this one close throughout and easily stay within the number. 10* Portland |
|||||||
04-21-15 | Dallas Mavericks +6 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 99-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The Mavericks lost Game 1, 118-108, failing to cover as 5.5-pt dogs. The linesmakers are only being slightly more generous for Game 2, but I'll be taking the points as I'm going all "zig zag" in this three-game report, taking the Game 1 SU/ATS loser every time. As I said at the end of the Boston writeup (and then neglected to mention in the one on Toronto!), the SU loser of Game 1 has made a strong ATS accounting for itself in Game 2 the last three seasons (plus yday), going a healthy 33-13-1 at the betting window. These teams rank pretty evenly according to my own personal power ratings, so look for the Mavs to cover and possibly take the game outright. Houston did take three of four from Dallas during the regular season, but note every win was by seven points or less, two of them by five pts or less. Seven Rockets scored in double figures Saturday night, something that can't happen every game. An incredible +28 edge in FT attempts, obviously a byproduct of James Harden, was also key. While because of Harden, the Rockets have the best differential in FT attempts compared to their opponents, that is pretty ridiculous even by their standards and thus unlikely to be repeated again tonight. In a win at Dallas earlier this month, Houston did attempt 40 shots from the charity stripe, but in each of the previous three matchups, they were at 26 or less. The Mavs are going to need to ride Dirk Nowitzki more than they did in Game 1 where he was still able to score 24 points on just 14 attempts. This is especially true if either Chandler Parsons or Devin Harris can't go tonight. Overall, I think the team can score enough (115 PPG L5) to stick within the number this time as you know we'll be getting their best shot as the Mavs don't want to fall into the dreaded 0-2 hole. 8* Dallas |
|||||||
04-21-15 | Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -4.5 | Top | 117-106 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): For a second straight year, the Raptors lost home court advantage in their first round series right off the bat by dropping Game 1. For a second straight year, that loss came to a team w/ Paul Pierce on its roster. In 2014, it was Brooklyn and now its Washington. Faced w/ the prospect of falling into what would almost be an insurmountable 0-2 hole, I look for Toronto to bounce back in Game 2. As I discussed in my previous series analysis, Washington is a rather inconsistent bunch, one that is just 14-21 SU its L35 games vs. teams with a winning record. Thus, I cannot see them winning the first two games of this series on the road. Lay the points. Though Toronto did not play well in Game 1, they did rally to force overtime, which should count for something. The bench actually scored more than the starting five (48-38) and I cannot see the latter struggling again the way it did Saturday. In particular, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Terrance Ross combined to go just 11 for 41 from the field, including 0 for 11 from three-point range. As I said prior to Gm 1, the duo of DeRozan and Lowry rank as the league's second highest scoring backcourt, trailing only Golden State's Curry and Thompson. They'll be better here. It's not like the Raptors can't beat the Wizards; they swept them during the regular season, also going 2-1 ATS. I also don't see the rebounding battle being so one-sided this time out. This will be Washington's fourth consecutive road game dating back to the end of the regular season. While the playoff schedule has at least spread those games out, it's a role the Wizards are just 1-6 ATS in this season. Also, Game 1 aside, this was not a good team in the underdog role for much of the year. They are just 9-21 SU when taking points, including 3-10 as a road dog in the +3.5 to +6 range. In all three games at Toronto this season, the Wiz have shot worse than 30 percent from three-point range. With a low spread, I'll take the desperate home team that finds itself in a "must-win" situation. 8* Toronto |
|||||||
04-21-15 | Boston Celtics +11.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): Cleveland covered in Game 1 thanks to a missed driving layup in the final seconds Sunday that was inconsequential to the final score, but a killer for Celtics backers. The game featured a wild swing as early on Boston led by as many as eight, but then trailed by as many as 20 in the third quarter. However, defensive issues remain for the Cavaliers, who were actually outshot in Game 1 (46.8% to 45.1%) and thus I see them failing to cover the big number this time as I'll zig zag for Game 2. Boston actually had the second best win percentage in the Eastern Conference (second to Cleveland) after the All-Star Break. Take the points. The Celtics are the only road team to win here at Quicken Loans Arena since January 15th. They did so, beating a "skeleton crew" 11 days ago, but still while they may be ultimately overmatched in the series, I don't see a team that's intimidated. They were able to get off to the hot start Sunday, but turning it over 13 times in the L3 quarters didn't help. Even though he has less to work with, I don't think there's any denying that Celtics HC Brad Stevens has done a better job this season than counterpart David Blatt. Boston finished the regular season w/ a positive point differential and was 31-18 ATS as underdogs. This is a team that averages 101.3 points per game, so they can "keep pace" w/ Cleveland's high-powered offense, at least to the degree where they can stay within the number. Overall, the Cavs have covered just three of their past ten games. For the Celtics, Game 1 stopped a six-game ATS win streak. Defensively, Cleveland remains an average team at best, which will catch up w/ them when trying to cover spreads as large as this. Boston is going to be at its most desperate here, trying not to go down 0-2 in the series. Note that Game 1 losers have gone 33-13-1 ATS in Game 2 the past three seasons (plus yday) and DD dogs in the playoffs off a SU/ATS loss are on a healthy 33-18-2 ATS run. 10* Boston |
|||||||
04-20-15 | New Orleans Pelicans +11 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (10:35 ET): I'm going with the popular "zig-zag" approach in Game 2 of the Pelicans-Warriors series as the double digit number is just too tempting to pass up. Now Golden State obviously took Game 1, 106-99, but they failed to cover after being outscored 33-22 in the fourth quarter. They built a big early lead (led by as many as 25), so the game probably wasn't as close as the final score indicates, although the Pelicans did pull within four in the final minute. That all being said, and despite the fact the Warriors have won 19 straight at home, I think taking the points is the right play here. New Orleans is now 3-0 ATS this season taking 9.5 or more points and Golden State has now failed to cover four of its last five when laying double digits. With Anthony Davis, the Pelicans are guaranteed to at least be competitive in this series. In his playoff debut Saturday, Davis dropped 35 pts and had seven rebounds and four blocks. A case can be made that he is the best player - on either side - in this series and yes, I'm including MVP candidate Steph Curry in that discussion. Clearly though, Davis will need help if New Orleans is to actually win a game in this series. PG Tyreke Evans is listed as questionable for tonight (bruised knee), but likely will play. Another key will be getting off to a better start. In all five games against the Warriors this season, the Pelicans have trailed by at least nine points at halftime. New Orleans has not dropped B2B games since a four-game losing streak back in late March. They've gone 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS since that time off a loss, the only non-cover coming in a game where they were favored by 14.5 points. Golden State has now failed to cover six of its last seven games as the linesmakers finally begin to catch up to them. They are actually just 17-19 ATS their L36 games overall. The Pelicans were right behind the Warriors for the season as one of seven teams in the league to finish better than 56% against the spread. It's hard to cover spreads this large in the playoffs, when motivation is never an issue for the dog. 10* New Orleans |
|||||||
04-19-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -1 | Top | 92-107 | Win | 100 | 39 h 41 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): For the record, I would not be surprised to see the Spurs win this series. Every year, there is usually one team - seeded 6th or lower - that advances to the second round. (Last year, it was Brooklyn over Toronto). This year, it seems as if everyone is picking the Spurs to oust the Clippers, despite being the lower seed, and despite the fact that the Clippers were probably the league's second hottest team at the close of the regular season (San Antonio being the hottest). Los Angeles comes into the postseason having won seven straight and 14 of their last 15, the only loss coming by four at Golden State (a game they led much of the way). So, to me, they are being drastically undervalued on their home court for Game 1. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs close as the favorite here, so you may want to even consider waiting to get the best possible line. I just don't think that the Clippers are being given the proper credit here. They finished w/ a slightly better point differential (+6.5) than the Spurs during the regular season, so they should probably be laying at least 2.5 or 3 pts here. Yes, there is the issue of their weak bench, but this being the playoffs, rotations are shortened and depth becomes lack of an issue. This Clippers team also went 30-11 SU at home, averaging greater than 106 PPG. They won the final two meetings with the Spurs during the regular season, including one here at Staples Center as a home dog. I think the fact that the Spurs lost on the final day of the regular season, which dropped them from 2nd to 6th in the Conference should mean something. The loss of home court advantage will make things harder for the Spurs here. Predictably, the majority of bets here are on the Spurs, which was to be expected. But again, I just think that everyone is giving the Spurs a "free pass" here against what is a top three team in the league. This could very well be - on paper - the best first round matchup EVER as it is the only time we've had two teams with YTD point differentials of better than +6.0 taking on each other this early in the playoffs. Bottom line is that the Clippers are being undervalued coming into this series. 10* LA Clippers |
|||||||
04-19-15 | Portland Trail Blazers +5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 1 m | Show |
8* Portland (8:05 ET): If you're Memphis, you have to be thinking that things couldn't have worked out any better when it comes to seeding. Not only did the Grizzlies avoid both the Clippers and Spurs here in the first round, but by virtue of having a better record than 4th seeded Portland (division winners guaranteed no lower than 4th), they have the home court advantage in this series - against a team they swept in the regular season, no less. Why then am I taking the points? Well, I still think the Blazers happen to be a better team overall and while home teams can often be undervalued in the playoffs, anything more than the standard boost for home court here is too much. Take the points. Admittedly, the Blazers aren't a great road team. They have a losing record away from home and give up 101.4 points per game. They allowed 100+ every time during a four-game (SU and ATS) losing streak to end the regular season, but I'm not overly concerned about that stretch as they were pretty much locked into their seed and had nothing to play for in those games. Remember that last year they advance past the first round despite not having home court advantage. I'm not saying that Portland will win this series, but three of the four meetings vs. Memphis in the regular season were decided by single digits, two by six pts or less. The line was never greater than three in any of the four games. So there's value here. Memphis, like Portland, did not close the regular season all that well. They were just 5-6 SU the L11 games, so again, the team laying points in this series is the one to be wary of. Overall, the Grizzlies were just 27-30 ATS as a favorite and 21-19 ATS at home. After allowing 85 pts or less, which they did in the regular season finale, they are just 4-8 ATS this year. While their defensive numbers are superior to Portland, their offensive numbers are not as they average just 98.3 PPG. I see this as being a competitive series, possibly destined for seven games, and a 4-0 SU/ATS record vs. Portland for Memphis is not indicative of how evenly matched these teams truly are. 8* Portland |
|||||||
04-18-15 | Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -3.5 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
8* Toronto (12:35 ET): While this is the one series in the Eastern Conference w/ potential to go the distance, I feel that the Raptors are being undervalued for Game 1. They're at home and beat the Wizards all three times they played in the regular season. While you could make the point that all those games were played in the first half of the season, when Toronto was playing much better, the same holds true for Washington, who was just 4-13 SU (5-10-2 ATS) vs. winning teams during the second half of the season. Also, it's not like the Wiz are a strong road team either; they're record away from home is just 17-24 (both SU and ATS). This is too short of a number as these teams aren't quite as even as the line suggests. Lay the points. Toronto is pretty strong offensively (104 PPG overall) while the same could be said for Washington on the defensive end of the floor (97.8 PPG allowed). Therefore, this game/series could very well come down to Washington's middling offense vs. Toronto's middling defense. Fortunately for the Raptors, this game is at home where they allow about 2.5 points per game fewer than their overall season average. The Wizards conversely allow 1.5 PPG more on the road compared to their overall season average. Two of the three regular season matchups were close, but the one that wasn't (played early in the year) was played here "North of the Border" and saw the Raptors prevail 103-84. As a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 pts, the Wizards were just 2-10 SU/3-9 ATS in the regular season. Perhaps Toronto's second half swoon can be attributed to them clearly having the division wrapped up by the All-Star Break. A top four seed was a formality and them not ending up #3 in the conference may have been by design as it allows them to avoid Cleveland in a potential second round series. This is a franchise desperate for a playoff series win and they remember losing Game 1 here at home to Brooklyn last year. Something to keep in mind is that only Golden State's Steph Curry and Klay Thompson averaged more PPG than Toronto's Kyle Lowry and Demar DeRozan among starting backcourts. Lou Williams gives the Raptors the edge off the bench as well. 8* Toronto |
|||||||
04-15-15 | Sacramento Kings v. Los Angeles Lakers -4.5 | Top | 122-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Normally, I would want no part of the Lakers as favorites. But this being an immediate revenge spot for them (after losing the front end of a home-and-home to the Kings Monday), plus the fact they are trying to avoid the worst single-season win percentage in franchise history, has me willing to "swallow the points" in this one. Furthermore, Sacramento is a terrible road team; 10-30 SU for the year and allowing 108 points per game. The Kings will be w/o their two best players - DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay - here and they are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS the L6 visits to the Lakers. Lay the points. Both teams are locked into lottery position as the Lakers are guaranteed of finishing w/ the fourth worst record in the league while the Kings are sixth worst. But as mentioned above, the Lakers do have the motivation of trying to avoid the worst single season win percentage in franchise history. For most of March, however, they remained fairly competitive. Lately though the bottom has dropped out, but I think at some point pride has to kick in and trying to avoid franchise infamy should help. Plus, playing the final game of the year at home helps too. Sacramento has lost six straight road games and the fact they are off a win probably works against them. Save for a four-game win streak late last month, the Kings have generally not been a good team off a SU win this year, going just 9-18 SU/9-16-2 ATS in that role. Not having Cousins/Gay does them no favors here (even though they still beat the Lakers w/o them Monday), nor does being on the road where their defense is particularly atrocious. Since March 6th, they've allowed 100+ in 11 of their 13 games on the road, including 113+ eight times. The fewest pts allowed by them in any of those contests was 97 and that was still in a loss. Allowing as many points as they do on the road, it will be highly difficult to see them making up the difference w/o the services of their two best players. Motivation could be especially low tonight as they close the season away from home. 8* LA Lakers |
|||||||
04-15-15 | Indiana Pacers +3.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 83-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* Indiana (9:35 ET): Yes, the Pacers are somewhat overvalued in this spot, but that's because they are likely to be in a "must-win" situation. Sure, "must win" doesn't mean "will win," but still, taking points w/ them I feel is a good value. Much here is dependent on the result of Orlando/Brooklyn, which has an 8:05 eastern start time. So you have to think that Indiana will be doing some scoreboard watching as the way things stand now, a Brooklyn loss would put them in the playoffs. But if the Nets were to win, and that's pretty likely due to the fact they're playing the Magic at home, then that puts the Pacers in the proverbial must-win situation as they would lose the tiebreaker (head to head) w/ the Nets. Take the points. Memphis, on the other hand, doesn't have much to play for. Seeding yes, but their chances of moving up are pretty slim and dependent on either the Spurs or Rockets losing (both favored). Injuries have also really taken their toll on the Grizzlies. Marc Gasol has been upgraded to probable for tonight, though his production has dipped dramatically as the season has worn on. PG Mike Conley remains questionable w/ an ankle injury. The team is also off B2B losses and Monday at Golden State wasn't as close as the 111-107 final score indicates as they gave up 93 pts in three quarters before the reserves came in and outscored the Warriors 41-18 in garbage time. In three of the four games prior to that, the Grizz failed to score 90 points. Indiana has won six straight and comes into tonight in much better form. They did have to play a double OT game last night, at home vs. Washington, but even on the road they look like a solid value b/c they're taking points. Had the Pacers come in favored here, I certainly would have been more leery. But the motivational edges lie w/ them. 10* Indiana |
|||||||
04-14-15 | Toronto Raptors +3.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:35 ET): Even before they officially clinched a playoff berth (shocking!) last night, I thought that Boston was overvalued in this spot as even a slight favorite over the visiting Raptors. The Celtics will finish either 7th or 8th in the Eastern Conference, depending on how the final two games play out, which means either Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round. Honestly, it may even behoove them to fall into eighth as I think the consensus opinion is that the Cavs are a worse matchup than the Hawks are. That's despite what happened over the weekend when the C's swept a home and home from Cleveland. But as I said in my analysis yday (when I played the Cavs), those results really meant little as Cleveland was resting starters. My own personal power ratings suggest this should basically be a pick 'em game, thus take the points. Toronto still has something to play for, namely seeding, as the Atlantic Division Champs will finish either third or fourth. Again, like Boston, finishing fourth may be a better play for the Raptors as it would get them out of Cleveland's half of the bracket. But at the same time, finishing third would mean Milwaukee in the first round (as opposed to Washington) and this is a franchise desperate to win its first playoff series since the Vince Carter days. I just played (and won with) the Raptors their last time out as they beat a Miami team fighting for its playoff life, 107-104 as 3.5-pt road dogs. It was the team's third consecutive SU win away from home. This is a group that averages a healthy 105.6 points per game on the road for the season. Tonight also marks a revenge spot for the Raptors as they lost at home to Boston, 117-116 (as 3-pt chalk), at home back on April 4th. That is one of only two losses for them over the L8 games. Kyle Lowry didn't play in that last meeting, but the point guard will be on the court tonight for Toronto. Boston, despite being 6-1 SU/ATS its L7 games overall, is better to back in the underdog role (just 15-16 ATS when favored) and has been averaging nearly 8 PPG above their normal scoring average during that seven-game stretch. They are due to come back "down to Earth." 10* Toronto |
|||||||
04-13-15 | New York Knicks v. Atlanta Hawks -14 | Top | 112-108 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): I played the Knicks their last time out and they rewarded me w/ a "shocking" outright win (as 11-pt pups) at Orlando, taking the game by a final score of 80-79. But as you may have heard, that game contained one of the worst played quarters in league history as the two teams COMBINED for just 15 points in the second. New York did actually lead by 11, on the road no less, going into the fourth quarter. But one could certainly argue that there were "no winners" in that one, least of all the Knicks, who actually potentially hurt themselves in terms of position for the draft lottery as they are now tied w/ Minnesota at 16-64 for the worst record in the league going into the final two games. Therefore, I expect tanking to be on full display tonight in Atlanta as they take on a Hawks team playing its final home game of the regular season. Though the Hawks have homecourt advantage in the Eastern Conference sewn up, I expect they'll give the requisite effort here w/ it being the final home game of the regular season. Plus, they're off a loss yday as well, to Washington by a score of 108-99 as nine-point dogs. That was a "funky" line as Atlanta HC Mike Budenholzer rested four regular starters and went with a lineup that had just 29 career starts between them. Budenholzer is expected to have his normal starting lineup, save for the injured Paul Milsap, on the floor tonight. After such a lackluster performance yday, I expect the rout will be on early here, especially against an opponent who likely has no interest in winning to begin with. Not surprisingly, the Hawks have beaten the Knicks both times they've played this season. What's a little surprising is that the two wins were relatively close (six and seven points). But both games were played very early in the season before it became obvious what a disaster the Knicks had become. At home, Atlanta has won five straight by holding opponents to 84.4 points per game on 40 percent shooting. The Knicks have lost 34 of their past 40 road games and are being outscored by 11 PPG away from home for the season. Again, this game should not be close. 8* Atlanta |
|||||||
04-13-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Cleveland Cavaliers -6 | Top | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For the first time since LeBron James returned from that "sabbatical," the Cavs have lost B2B games. Both were to Boston, a potential first round playoff opponent, but I would read little into that as most of the starters (including James himself yday) were rested. HC David Blatt has said that James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and JR Smith will all be back in the starting lineup tonight for what should be the team's final "tune'-up" before the playoffs get underway. They are catching Detroit off a rare blowout victory, and playing at home I expect this one to end up as a rout. Remember that before "phoning it in" vs. the Celtics on Friday, the Cavs had not lost at home since early January. Lay the points. Sunday marked Cleveland's worst loss of the season, but again, that means nothing since 80 percent of the starting lineup didn't even suit up. Friday's front end of the home and home saw Irving sit out entirely while James and Love didn't play in the fourth quarter (lost by nine). Remember that the Celtics are a team trying to make the playoffs, so the effort levels in those last two games aren't even comparable. Also, "punting" on the two games may have been a wise move for the Cavs, who I think would match up very well w/ Boston in Rd 1 at full strength. The same is true tonight against a Pistons team they've beaten by near identical scores the last two times they've met and those games were in Detroit. From a value standpoint, things look great here as we're getting Cleveland at basically the same price they were at on the road for those L2 matchups. The Pistons, meanwhile, are off their biggest win of the season as they beat Charlotte yday, 116-77 as 8.5-pt home favorites. But this game is on the road where they are just 13-26 SU for the year and overall, they've won just 8 of the last 24 games. Back to back wins have been quite uncommon save for a four-game win streak at the end of March. Off their L2 wins, they lost by double digits the next game, both times. Generally, the Pistons are a poor shooting team that can't come close to matching the Cavs offensively, even on their "best day." 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
04-12-15 | Dallas Mavericks -7 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 120-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:35 ET): This will be the second straight game that the Mavs are drawing a sub-.400 foe that's coming off a rare win. Things worked out well for them the last time, as they defeated Denver 144-143 (in double overtime) Friday. Granted, in retrospect, they were a better value (opened as 4-pt dogs) there than they are here, but the Lakers aren't an opponent they should be very concerned about. Yes, LA won Friday, but that was at home against Minnesota and just the fifth time since the beginning of March that they emerged victorious. Of the previous three wins, two were by just two points and the other against Philadelphia. Lay the points here as Dallas should win in a blowout. The Mavs are somewhat under the radar right now as they are guaranteed to finish 7th in the Western Conference. Obviously, motivation down the stretch could then be called into question, but after a rocky 2H of the season, they are going to want to play well heading into the playoffs as their first round opponent is likely to be an elite team. Fifty wins is also still a possibility. While normally coming off a 2OT game can be a major detriment, in this case fatigue should not be a factor. PG Rajon Rondo was given the night off and the starters sat in the second overtime period. They won't have Chandler Parsons tonight, but should still be okay. Dallas is 3-0 SU vs. the Lakers this season, but has actually failed to cover the last two meetings. They were in an identical price range when the two teams met here at Staples Center last month. As I said earlier, the Lakers have won only five games since that time and all of those were against sub-.500 teams. Admittedly, they've also been a little more competitive than you'd think during that time, but off those last four wins they are not only 0-4 SU, but also 0-4 ATS, losing all of those games by seven points or greater. 8* Dallas |
|||||||
04-12-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Milwaukee Bucks +1 | Top | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (3:05 ET): I'm just not a believer in this Brooklyn team, which has now won 8 of its last 10 games, both losses coming against Atlanta. Blowing out Washington the way they did Friday (117-80 as five-point favorites) certainly caught me by surprise and for the team, that win kept them in playoff position. Currently, they are tied for seventh w/ Boston, but just one game ahead of ninth place Indiana. So, the line here is certainly a reflection of the situation facing the Nets as the game probably carries more importance to them than Milwaukee. That being said, the Bucks can clinch a playoff spot here and I cannot justify Brooklyn being favored on the road. Milwaukee won the first two meetings of the year w/ Brooklyn before losing in late March by two at the Barclays Center in triple overtime. In the Nets' only previous visit here, they were 5.5-pt dogs, and that's right where my personal power ratings suggest the line for this game should be. As a home dog, the Bucks have covered three straight times, including outright wins at the expense of Miami and Chicago. Though they've regressed in the second half, this team is still 29-19 ATS in the underdog role and they are 4-2 SU/ATS as a home dog of three points or less. Obviously, the line here is basically negligible, but that doesn't mean that the value still isn't w/ the home team. Over its last five games, Brooklyn has averaged 109.4 points per game, well above their overall season average (98.5 PPG). Their defensive performance against Washington also a surprise. Note, however, on the road they're allowing over 100 PPG this season. Coming off a double-digit win, they are 3-10 against the spread and after allowing 85 pts or less, they're 1-4 ATS. Milwaukee is off a win as well, 99-91 at New York, as Giannis Antetokounmpo returned to the lineup after sitting against Cleveland. I look for the Bucks to defend "home turf" in this one. 10* Milwaukee |
|||||||
04-11-15 | Toronto Raptors +3 v. Miami Heat | Top | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): When are people going to come to the realization that Miami simply is not a very good basketball team? Sure, some slack "should be cut" over the season-ending injury to Chris Bosh and the fact that LeBron James went back home to Cleveland. But what remains is a team that does not deserve to make the playoffs, even though admittedly there will be two teams making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference w/ losing records. The Heat hope to be one of them, but let's face it, this team is 28th in points, last in rebounding, 29th in assists and being outscored by roughly three points per game. Thus, they are not only unworthy of postseason involvement, but also certainly unworthy of being favored (even at home) against the Atlantic Division Champion Raptors. Thursday may have marked a new nadir for this season for the Heat. They were outscored 33-8 in the third quarter by Chicago en route to an 89-78 loss and now trail Boston and Brooklyn by two games for the final playoff spot w/ three to play. It's not like this has been a strong home team either; they have a losing straight up record here and are an even worse 16-22 against the spread. They did beat Toronto here, but that was very early in the season, back on November 2nd to be exact. Last month, they lost by 10 "North of the Border." The Raptors made it B2B road wins w/ a two-point victory over Orlando last night. I get that it's the second game of back to backs against a team desperately trying to make the playoffs, but it's now looking as if PG Kyle Lowry may suit up tonight (upgraded to probable) even though he played 33 minutes in his return from a seven-game absence last night. Remember that Toronto is still playing for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference as they enter the day tied w/ Chicago for that position. Miami is 12-19 ATS when favored this year and 0-6 ATS overall their past six games. Take the points 8* Toronto. |
|||||||
04-11-15 | New York Knicks +11.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10* New York (7:05 ET): Orlando is not a team that should ever be favored in this price range. Yes, I know the opponent is the horrible Knicks, but given the Magic's already poor 4-6-1 ATS mark as chalk, they cannot be endorsed laying double digits for the first time all year. They did recently win three in a row, but then returned to their losing ways w/ a two-point defeat here at home last night against Toronto. While an outright loss might be asking too much, I do expect a back and forth affair here from two teams w/ little to play for. The Knicks have actually covered four of their last five, including last night (as 11-pt dogs) vs. Milwaukee. Take the points. Since the start of March, the Knicks have only won three times total and their last road win came all the way back on March 12th (Lakers), almost exactly one month ago. I used to feel that this team was basically "unplayable," but now the pointspreads continue to grow more extreme, there is some value on them. They've been competitive w/ Orlando in all three meetings this season, beating them once and losing twice by six points or less. The spread was only -6 in favor of the Magic the last time they played (February 11th), and that was here in Orlando. The Knicks haven't declined by that much since that time and the Magic certainly haven't gotten that much better to justify the price increase by the linesmakers here. I realize that the Knicks' main concern should be w/ ping-pong balls (ie Draft Lottery) and not winning and thus "blowing" their chance at the #1 overall pick in June. But the bottom line here is that I wouldn't bet on Orlando beating anyone by this many points. They did recently beat Minnesota by 13, on the road no less, which started the three-game win streak that ended last night. But that is their lone double digit victory since the start of March. 10* New York |
|||||||
04-10-15 | Phoenix Suns +9 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 75-90 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (8:05 ET): The Pelicans made me look very foolish their last time out in losing at Memphis 110-74. Of course, I wasn't the only one hurt by the loss as New Orleans' own playoff fortunes took a dive and now they enter the day tied w/ Oklahoma City for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. While there's no denying that the Pelicans are certainly a stronger team at home (26-13) compared to on the road (16-23), the shift in the line here from a March 19th meeting w/ Phoenix is incredibly dramatic and that's owed almost entirely to the fact New Orleans is chasing down a playoff spot. My own power ratings say this line is way too high, so w/ the Pelicans overvalued, I'll grab the points. The Suns have lost seven of eight overall, but were competitive in recent road losses to Golden State and Dallas, falling by only a combined four points. Overall, they've covered three of four, including a win against Utah. I actually played against them in the lone non-cover, when they were blown out in Atlanta, but the Pelicans are not the same caliber team as the Hawks, nor are they in the class of Golden State or Dallas, the two teams Phoenix just hung with. Wednesday in Dallas, they led by five w/ five minutes to go in a back and forth contest that saw 14 lead changes. Though officially eliminated from playoff contention, look for them to keep this game close throughout as well. New Orleans lost to Phoenix the last time they played, 74-72 as three-point dogs. As I said earlier, that's quite the shift in line and more than just the change in homecourt advantage. It's owed to the fact the Pelicans are in playoff contention and the Suns are not, but in my opinion it's an overadjustment. New Orleans has a losing ATS record as a favorite this year and also has three outright losses as home chalk in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Suns are a solid 21-15 ATS on the road this year and I see them staying within the number. 8* Phoenix |
|||||||
04-10-15 | Charlotte Hornets +10 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 80-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): Interesting line here. The last time these teams played saw the Hornets favored by six, albeit at home, yet they won and covered (final score 115-100). The Hawks rested starters in that one and they still have nothing to play for here, plus Paul Milsap won't be around again. Thabo Sefalosha and Pero Antic are also out here, stemming from this bizarre nightclub situation that resulted in a stabbing that I still don't fully comprehend. So, what I'm saying is that this looks to be a classic overlay as Charlotte still is mathematically alive for the playoffs. The Hornets have beaten Atlanta twice this year, both times at home, but look for them at worst to slide in through the proverbial backdoor here. Charlotte did not look good in their last game, but that was also the second of back to backs and the loss in Miami the night before was particularly painful. Tonight is basically the team's last gasp, so I expect a far better effort. Injuries have certainly taken their toll, but remember that they won't be facing a full Hawks squad either. Let's home that Kemba Walker can continue his recent string of strong efforts on the offensive end as he's been in double figures 12 of the past 16 games (15.4 PPG) since coming back from injury. Defensively, the Hornets have been strong all year (97.0 PPG allowed) and particularly of late as they've held their last five opponents to just 91.2 PPG. The Hawks have everything wrapped up for the playoffs and just want to get there w/o losing any more players. They will be the top seed in the Eastern Conference and w/ no Milsap (leading scorer & rebounder) and off three straight wins, I don't expect their best effort in this one. Making this line even more interesting is that the vast majority of wagers have come in on the home team, but the number is actually coming DOWN. 10* Charlotte |
|||||||
04-09-15 | Portland Trail Blazers +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:35 ET): Considering their 25-10-2 ATS record here, there haven't been many times this season that Golden State has been overvalued at home. But tonight looks to be one of those times. Part of it is that they are coming off B2B losses (for the first time since January and just the fourth time all season!). At no point in the season have the Warriors lost three games in a row. And while they likely keep that streak alive after tonight, I don't see them covering this spread against a Portland team still competing for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Conversely, Golden State really has nothing left to play for as they have locked up homecourt advantage throughout the entire playoffs. Take the points. The Blazers did play last night, but I don't see that being too big of an issue as they won easily at home, 116-91 over Minnesota. It was a 19-point game at halftime, allowing LaMarcus Aldridge (who still led the team w/ 24 pts) and Damian Lillard to sit the entire fourth quarter. Portland's biggest lead in the game was 28 points. But unfortunately, they still trail both the Clippers and Spurs record-wise (by 1.5 games each), which means that the Blazers would NOT have home court advantage in potential first round series despite being the higher seed. "Stealing" this game could go a long way in earning that coveted homecourt as Portland is 32-8 SU at the Moda Center this season. For what it's worth, they have outscored their opponents (but only by about 1 PPG) on the road this season. But still, it's rare to find the Blazers as this prohibitive of an underdog. This will be their first trip to Oracle Arena this season after losing twice to the Warriors at home, but they didn't shoot well in either game and Golden State is highly unlikely to match its red-hot 60.2 shooting from the last matchup. That game, played two weeks ago, saw Portland lead 62-57 at halftime and make 15 three-pointers. Yet, somehow they managed to shoot WORSE from two-point range. That had a lot to do w/ both Aldridge and Nicolas Batum both sitting out due to injury. After playing seven of its last eight on the road, the Warriors may have a tough time battling fatigue in this one. 8* Portland |
|||||||
04-08-15 | New Orleans Pelicans +5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 74-110 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Maybe you think that the Pelicans are due for a letdown after beating Golden State last night, 103-100, and perhaps you're right. But I'm willing to let it ride by taking the points in their matchup tonight at Memphis, who has been struggling over the final quarter of the season. Over the last 19 games or so, New Orleans has been playing better than the Grizzlies and they have the point differential to prove it (+2.9 to -0.3). Therefore, taking this many points looks like a bargin, even in the second night of back to backs after factoring in homecourt advantage. Memphis has lost four of six overall, scoring less than 90 pts in every loss, and in what figures to potentially be another low-scoring affair, siding w/ the underdog would have been the way to go regardless. Don't look now, but the Pelicans now hold the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Coinciding w/ Oklahoma City slumping, New Orleans has won five of its last six including the big one over Golden State at home last night. Anthony Davis scored 23 points in the second half, leading his team back from a 12-point halftime deficit. While you could make the case that the Warriors have little to play for right now, take solace in the fact the Pelicans are back in the underdog role again tonight. They are 24-11 ATS when taking points this season. They are also 9-2 ATS the L11 matchups vs. Memphis, including SU wins the last two times they've played. New Orleans isn't as good on the road, but the generous number somewhat rectifies that for me. Both wins over Memphis this year came at home, but as I mentioned the Pelicans have been a live dog all season en route to a top five ATS record in the league. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies appear to be fading fast as they only scored 83 points in a bad home loss to Washington on Saturday. They shot just 42 percent overall, including 1 for 15 from three-point range, and while that's not likely to be duplicated, there have been issues scoring for awhile now. Jeff Green may miss this game after leaving Saturday w/ back spasms. 10* New Orleans |
|||||||
04-08-15 | Chicago Bulls -8 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
8* Chicago (7:05 ET): For the first time in "many moons," Derrick Rose is listed as "questionable" on the injury report (as opposed to "OUT"), but regardless if the former MVP plays or not tonight, I expect the Bulls to roll. That they've struggled against Orlando this year (0-3 ATS) and are off a loss should ensure the requisite motivation from the favorite here. Catching the Magic off rare B2B wins also helps as a bad team could be a bit "full of itself" and really there should be little interest in finishing the season strong considering draft position should be the main focus. Chicago has won and covered both of its games when in the -6.5 to -9 range on the road this year. Lay the points. I had the Bulls plus the points Sunday as they were able to stay within a generous number at Cleveland. While they have struggled on the road throughout the second half (2-7 SU L9), there's no reason for them not to come out strong as they look to finish third in the Eastern Conference. Orlando will have their attention as like I said earlier, the Magic have covered all three previous matchups this season, including an outright win in the Windy City. But let's also keep in mind that before winning at Minnesota and Milwaukee, the Magic had dropped 10 of 11 games, seven of those by double digits. Also, Chicago has won its last eight visits to Orlando. In my analysis for the Cleveland game, I discussed how this Bulls team was scoring way more than previous editions under HC Tom Thibodeau (100.7 PPG). They didn't shoot the ball very well against the Cavaliers, nor did they do a good job of getting to the free throw line (just 21 attempts). Note though that it took two miracle half-court shots during the course of that game for the Bulls to lose. Orlando doesn't have a player like a JR Smith, who is capable of making eight three-pointers in a game (ridiculous!). Chicago's defense has still been improving though (91.8 PPG allowed L5) while the Magic are allowing 102.9 PPG at home for the season and 108.0 their last nine here at the Amway Center. 8* Chicago |
|||||||
04-07-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5 | Top | 113-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): I get that the Spurs are in peak form and that the Thunder are slumping, but judging by this line, I'd say that the market is in some dire need of correction. My own personal power ratings suggest that the number should be much closer to a pick 'em, so with that being said, all the value is on the home dog in this spot. Yes, San Antonio just whipped Golden State. But that was at home. Yes, Oklahoma City has lost five of six, one of those coming in blowout fashion to these Spurs. But the next four losses have all been by single digits, three of them by 5 pts or less and I say taking this points is the way to go in this revenge spot for them. When these teams met two weeks ago in the Alamo, it was all Spurs in a 130-91 whitewashing. But consider the line there was only -7.5, so even with the easy cover, this does seem like a bit of an overreaction by both the linesmakers and the public (in betting the number up). San Antonio is just 1-6 SU/ATS its last seven visits to OKC, none of which have come this season. But on the road this year, the Spurs are a pretty pedestrian 20-18 SU w/ an avg point differential of just +1.0 PPG. On the flip side, the Thunder are 27-11 SU at home (despite B2B close losses here). The change in venue should make a big difference from the last time these two met. Oklahoma City also is just one-half game up on New Orleans for the eighth seed in the Western Conference, so there sense of urgency here should be greater. Save for the last time they met San Antonio, it's not like the Thunder have been playing all that poorly though. Losses to Dallas and Houston here at home came by a combined seven points and in between they lost at Memphis. Previously, they'd gone 20-2 SU over a 22-game stretch here at home. Russell Westbrook remains a MVP candidate w/ his impressive numbers and while I'm not necessarily calling for the outright win here, I will point out that this is the Thunder's longest losing streak since before Thanksgiving. 10* Oklahoma City. |
|||||||
04-07-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Atlanta Hawks -7.5 | Top | 69-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Considering that these teams just played four weeks ago in Phoenix and the line was Atlanta -6.5, this number looks positively cheap by comparison. And it's not like the Suns did much that day that should have impressed the linesmakers. Yes, they led 50-48 at halftime and finished w/ a 56-44 edge in rebounding, but other than from three-point range, they didn't shoot the ball well and ended up losing 96-87 while failing to cover the spread. Things have not gone well in the desert since that time w/ Phoenix losing five of their last six (did win Saturday - by two) as injuries have really taken their toll, so despite the Hawks being w/o Paul Milsap (leading scorer & rebounder), I see the home team winning comfortably. Speaking of comfortable wins, that's what Atlanta had the last time we saw them as they destroyed the Brooklyn Nets by a score of 131-99, shooting almost 60 percent for the game. It was their most points in any game the last three years and included 17 made shots from behind the three-point arc. Obviously, without Milsap, expecting a repeat performance would be somewhat foolish, but remember that Milsap's absence isn't going to affect the team's three-point shooting and we have a rather large margin to work with when it comes to dropoff. Especially w/ Phoenix struggling to score the way they have; they're averaging just 91.4 PPG their last five and have failed to break 80 pts eight times since the final game in February. The Suns are only three games back of Oklahoma City for eighth place in the Western Conference, but w/ only five games to play, things are looking rather bleak. They did win a low-scoring affair on Saturday, beating Utah 87-85, but their chances of repeating that kind of defensive performance seem small as not only do they allow 105.5 PPG on the road, but Atlanta is averaging 103.6 PPG at home. Phoenix has covered just 8 of 22 games against teams with a winning record during the second half of the season while the Hawks are a healthy 34-20 ATS when favored and continue to pace the Eastern Conference in both the SU & ATS standings. 8* Atlanta |
|||||||
04-06-15 | Wisconsin v. Duke | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -102 | 33 h 55 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (9:20 ET): If just considering raw numbers, then you might come to the conclusion that Duke has been the most dominant team in this tournament. After all, they've won their five games thus far by a whopping average of 17.6 points per game en route to also going 5-0 ATS. But they've gotten somewhat of a favorable draw. Remember that Michigan State, despite the glowing narrative of Tom Izzo, was still a 7-seed that lost 12 times during the season. Gonzaga and Utah's offenses were somewhat neutralized by the "NRG Stadium Effect" and Robert Morris + San Diego State were clearly overmatched. Wisconsin just beat the top two teams in the country, Arizona and Kentucky, and led most of the way in doing so. It appears to be the Badgers' year. I'll call for Wisconsin to win the National Championship. Wisconsin did lose to Duke, at home, in the regular season. But there's surprisingly little takeaway from that game as both starting lineups will be different Monday night. But if there is one takeaway to be had from that December matchup it's that Duke is highly unlikely to shoot 65% from the field again. Meanwhile, the Badgers are almost certainly bound to improve upon their own 40% shooting from that contest. This is a team that just played the top two defensive teams in the country and beat them both averaging 78 points per game. Against Arizona, they averaged a frightening 1.33 points per possession, which I knew they wouldn't get against Kentucky, but that game still found a way to go Over despite only 116 total possessions. The Badgers have been lights out from three-point range in this tournament, which is going to be key again here. Wisconsin is a more experienced team than Duke and that experience has shown with some fantastic second-half performances in this tournament. Frank Kaminsky is their best player and has averaged 22.6 points and 8.3 rebounds the last three games. But one could make the argument that Sam Dekker has been the key to the Badgers' run as he's averaged 20.6 PPG on ridiculous 61.3 percent shooting in the tournament. He had only five points in the regular season matchup vs. Duke and could likely be the difference-maker here. Duke starts a number of true freshman, which hasn't been an issue so far, but likely will be on this stage. 8* Wisconsin |
|||||||
04-05-15 | Miami Heat +6 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 89-112 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
8* Miami (6:05 ET): After opening, this line has shifted somewhat significantly. That's owed mainly due to the impending return of Paul George, who will be making his long-awaited season debut for the Pacers tonight. But is it too late for Indiana? Maybe not. They did destroy Charlotte Friday night, 93-74 as 5-pt chalk, putting them 1.5 games out of the coveted eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami, following last night's tough loss in Detroit, is also now on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the postseason as they trail 8th place Boston (who won yday) by one-half game. So there's plenty at stake here, for both teams, Sunday night. That usually leads me to want to take the points & I'm inclined to do just that here. To expect much from George here tonight seems foolish. His minutes will be limited (only 10-15 mins here) according to team president Larry Bird. Remember that this is a Pacers team which has lost 9 of 12 and prior to Friday their only two wins had both been by five points or less. They still have a negative point differential for the year and are just 20-18 SU at home. To me, they certainly seem overvalued in this spot due to the news of George's return. All I know is that if Indiana doesn't end up making the playoffs, then they would have run a significant risk by allowing George to come back. Given that I can't see this team making any kind of playoff run, they might be better served ending up in the Draft Lottery and acquiring a potential future superstar. Miami is off a particularly brutal loss as they blew a 15-point fourth quarter lead last night in Detroit. They couldn't get stops down the stretch and now find themselves on a three-game losing streak. Playing on back to back days hasn't really been a problem though for the Heat as they are 9-5 ATS in the second leg this season, plus there have only been two times all season where they've dropped more than three games in a row. We're basically betting against a version of Indiana that doesn't exist, one where George is healthy and ready to contribute. I would not be surprised to see the Heat win this game. 8* Miami |
|||||||
04-05-15 | Chicago Bulls +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
8* Chicago (3:30 ET): These teams last played in the final game before the All-Star Break, in the Windy City, with the Bulls dealing Cleveland a rare loss. The Cavs had been 2-0 SU/ATS in the season series prior to that and do come into this afternoon on a 17-game home winning streak. But, despite the return of Kevin Love, this spread looks far too high. It was just -4.5 the last time Chicago came calling to Quicken Loans Arena. Factoring in Cleveland's resurgence, it should be higher here, but not quite this high as this should be a relatively low-scoring game, meaning that taking the points is the way to go. The Bulls were w/o Jimmy Butler when they beat Cleveland back in February, and while this time Derrick Rose won't be in the lineup, you have to figure that Pau Gasol and his league-leading 50 double-doubles will improve upon his 33 percent shooting in the three prior matchups. Overall, Chicago has won six of eight, and just held Detroit to 82 pts in a win Friday night. They didn't cover mind you, but it was also the eighth consecutive game they were favored. The team's record as an underdog isn't as good as I'd hoped, but they certainly seem "due" to cover a game that the linesmakers aren't expecting them to win. They've also gone 9-9 SU vs. LeBron James since the start of the 2010-11 season. We're also starting to see the Bulls' trademark defense improve. They uncharacteristically ranked only 13th in points per game allowed through 56 games, but over the last 20, they're giving up about 4.1 fewer. That may not sound like a lot, but the 95.1 PPG allowed ranks third during that time. Combine that w/ a Thibodeau-era high 100.8 PPG on the offensive end (.913 pts per possession) and you actually have a more complete Bulls team in year's past, even w/o Rose. Butler has been a large difference-maker, particularly in getting to the free throw line, which the Bulls do at the third best rate in the league (25.2 attempts per game). Before the blowout out win over Miami on Thursday, remember that Cleveland both lost to Brooklyn and failed to cover (won by just one) against Philadelphia. 8* Chicago |
|||||||
04-04-15 | Wisconsin v. Kentucky -5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 9 m | Show |
8* Kentucky (8:49 ET): The undefeated Wildcats got their first real scare of this tournament in the Elite 8 as they barely got by Notre Dame, winning 68-66 on two late Aaron Harrison free throws. For me, things were also a bit scary there as I had the Under (which I like here as well). I can see why bettors would be eager to take Wisconsin in this one, as in some respects the Badgers are a "better version" of Notre Dame. But to me, this matchup is all about market value. Kentucky was an 11-point favorite against Notre Dame and just a five-point favorite here. The Badgers may be better than the Irish, but not that much better, and this is a rare instance of the value actually being on UK (who I have yet to lay the points w/ in the tourney). It will only be the sixth time all season that the Wildcats are favored by single digits and they are 2-0 ATS when laying seven points or less. The two times Kentucky was favored by seven points or less were against Louisville and Kansas. They held those two to a stunning average of just 45 points and while that's not realistic for Saturday, I do think after playing Notre Dame, the Wildcats will be better prepared defensively for Wisconsin. Even after facing the Irish, UK is still only allowing 52 PPG in the Tournament. They are averaging 70 and that's with some inconsistent play from Karl-AnthonyTowns, who came alive in the Notre Dame game, scoring 25 pts on 10 of 13 shooting. He and Willy Cauley-Stein could be a matchup nightmare for Wisconsin in the post as the Badgers' game against Arizona showed you can get Frank Kaminsky in foul trouble. After not being an underdog a single time all year, Wisconsin is now taking points for a second straight game. But looking back at that matchup vs. Arizona, there are a couple of things I don't see repeating themselves. One is the Badgers averaging a preposterous 1.33 points per possession. Again, Kentucky has led the nation all season in defensive efficiency and allows just 53.9 PPG. Sam Dekker has been out of this world for the Badgers, but Kentucky's length should bother him, at least on the perimeter. Wisconsin uncharacteristically was fouling a lot against Arizona, and I think that the Harrison twins can get them to do the same here. Kentucky got its scare in its last game, so I expect them to be better defensively here, and it's also worth noting that they are 3-0 ATS this season when playing w/ five or more days rest. 8* Kentucky |
|||||||
04-04-15 | Boston Celtics v. Toronto Raptors -3 | Top | 117-116 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): The last time these two Atlantic Division rivals met was back in January, here in Toronto. The Raptors were 11.5-point favorites for that game and covered, winning easily by a final score of 109-96. Now, almost three months later, the market appears to have shifted dramatically as the Raptors are basically only getting credit for home court advantage. Even factoring in Boston's success in the underdog role during that time and Toronto's regression, I think an eight-point shift in the line is an over-adjustment by the linesmakers as my own personal power ratings say this line should be around -6.5. While both teams lost last night, I see the home team (fighting for 3rd in the East) being the hungrier of the two. Lay the points. Toronto is still w/o PG Kyle Lowry, which is a bit of an issue, but they were still able to remain competitive w/ a surging Brooklyn team last night on the road. Defense was an issue for them at the Barclays Center, giving up 114 points total including two quarters of 34+ points. Note that during their three-game SU/ATS win streak coming into that game, they had been allowing an average of just under 93 points per game. Defensively, the team is typically far more stout at home, where they allow only 98.2 PPG, compared to their overall average (101.2 PPG). So expect improvement on that end of the floor here tonight. Adding to the motivation is the fact that the Raptors, who are guaranteed no worse than the 4-seed because they've already clinched the Atlantic Division, must still finish w/ a better record than the fifth place Wizards or that means no home court advantage. Boston also lost last night and I'm happy to report I went against them. I didn't like them as a favorite at all against Milwaukee and sure enough their own defensive issues resurfaced as the Bucks ended up shooting better than 52 percent from the floor en route to a 110-101 outright victory. Even back to their customary underdog role, the Celtics don't seem like a good bet here getting this few points as their road record is just 15-22 straight up and they give up 102.6 points per game. Toronto should take advantage as they come in averaging 104.2 PPG overall. 8* Toronto |
|||||||
04-03-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Sacramento Kings +6 | Top | 101-95 | Push | 0 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Here we have a line that's drastically inflated due to the fact New Orleans is still in the playoff hunt and Sacramento most certainly is not. But laying points with the Pelicans here seems like a bad idea given their 15-21 SU road record. Sure enough, they are also just 3-6 SU (2-7 ATS) the last nine times they've been a road fave of 3.5 to 6 pts, including 1-4 SU/ATS marks this year alone. Consider that New Orleans was only a 6.5-pt favorite - at home - the last two times they took on the Kings. Plus, in their only prior visit to Sacramento this year, granted back in November, they were three-point dogs. I see a ton of value on the home dog in this spot. Take the points. These two did just play last week and it was the Pelicans coming out on top by a score of 102-88. However, it was a close game at the half (NO led by just four). What's interesting to note is that at that time, the Pelicans were on a four-game losing streak while the Kings had inexplicably won four straight. So, you could see how a then-desperate New Orleans team, playing at home, would be likely to win and cover. Here though? They've now won three in a row, since beating the Lakers and Minnesota (which doesn't mean much) and will be playing tomorrow night in Portland. This could in essence be a lookahead spot for the visitors. Meanwhile, the Kings have now lost three straight, including a close one at Houston Weds night. DeMarcus Cousins, who had 39 pts and 20 rebounds vs. the Pelicans, continued his recent strong play w/ 24 pts, 21 rebounds and 10 assists. Unfortunately for the team, they had no answer for James Harden's 51 points. Back at home now, Sacramento is far more respectable, only being outscored by about a point per game for the year. They've won three in a row here, granted all against Eastern Conference teams, but still this team has been fairly competitive of late. My own personal power ratings indicate that this line should be about -2.5, so that's pretty far off from the actual number. 10* Sacramento |
|||||||
04-03-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): While it seems a little dangerous to go back "to the well" again w/ the Bucks after I just cashed them Weds night in a 95-91 upset of Chicago (as 5-pt home dogs), Boston should not be favored by this many points. The Celtics' ATS success has largely been predicated on them typically being undervalued as the dog, but tonight the reverse is true. For the season, HC Brad Stevens' team is just 13-15 ATS when favored & that's after covering in a 100-87 win over Indiana two nights ago. So they are no less prone to a letdown than Milwaukee is here and I think taking the points is the way to go in this one. The Bucks have been great in the underdog role all season, going 27-19 against the spread. As mentioned above, the points were not even necessary Wednesday as they beat the Bulls outright in a big revenge spot. They were aided by poor shooting by Chicago, both at the free throw line and from behind the arc, plus 20 offensive rebounds were a big help as well. That one was at home and while similar to last year the Bucks can't seem to win on the road down the stretch (11 straight losses!), it's not like the Celtics are a dominant home team. They're just a .500 team (19-19 SU) in Beantown this season. Boston's problems lie on the defensive end where they give up 101.5 points per game. Among Eastern Conference teams, only Orlando allows more entering play on Friday. They were fortunate in that they allowed only 87 to an Indiana team that was due for regression Weds night, but I don't see that same good fortune occurring here. When these teams played in Milwaukee in early February, the line had the Bucks favored by six, so that's a pretty dramatic shift even after factoring in the change in venue. Too dramatic in my opinion, thus the play on the Bucks, who I could easily see taking this game outright. 8* Milwaukee |
|||||||
04-03-15 | Charlotte Hornets +5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 74-93 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): As I alluded to in the writeup on the total, I also like the Hornets plus the points here. This figures to be a low-scoring affair, so points will be at a premium. The road team also seems to be in better form having won two of its last three, including a big 102-88 beatdown of Detroit Wednesday. Meanwhile, Indiana is off B2B killer road losses at Brooklyn and Boston that have put a severe damper on their already fading playoff hopes. Charlotte is 17-5 ATS its L22 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 pts, including a 7-2 ATS mark this year, so again I'll be taking the points. Similar to the linesmakers increasing the total for this fourth matchup of the season between these teams, I think there's value w/ the spread as well, which is higher than previous installments. The Pacers have been two-point favorites all three times they've faced the Hornets so far and while they've won two of three, those two wins have been by a total of just three points. Granted, the last two meetings were in Charlotte, but one of those was a loss, and again in a toss-up kind of matchup, taking the points is the way to go. Both teams should be approaching tonight w/ a "playoff-like" mentality. Charlotte just destroyed Detroit Weds night, building a 20-point lead midway through the second quarter. They were coming off a loss at home to Boston two days prior, but in their three games previous had beaten Atlanta and lost twice by just a three-point margin. One would have to go back nearly a month to find the last time Indiana won a game by more than six points. They have a negative point differential for the season, and are just +1.4 PPG at home, so they shouldn't be laying this many points against a fairly comparable opponent. 8* Charlotte |
|||||||
04-02-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Golden State Warriors -11.5 | Top | 106-107 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
8* Golden State (10:35 ET): On paper, this just looks like a terrible matchup for the visiting Suns. Not only have they dropped four straight (also 0-4 ATS) overall, but due to a variety of issues (injuries chief among them), there's been a massive decrease in scoring w/ this group. That's not good news when having to hit the road and face Golden State, who lately has been as sharp as ever, winning 10 straight games and covering the spread in each of the last eight. While Phoenix's scoring continues to go down, the Warriors continue to pace the league offensively here at home where they average a whopping 113 points per game. Although they're a double digit favorite, my own personal power ratings indicate that there is a little bit of value on the chalk here. It certainly doesn't help Phoenix's case that they come in allowing 105.5 PPG on the road. But the decrease in scoring has been the concern for HC Jeff Hornacek, who has watched his team's playoff chances almost completely fade away. The Suns were destroyed up in Portland Monday, losing 109-86 as 8.5-pt dogs. Already playing w/o PG Brandon Knight, the team lost Alex Len to another injury in the 2H and ended up falling behind by as many as 31. It was their second straight double digit loss where they allowed 109 pts. Neither Knight nor Len is expected to suit up tonight and that's big time trouble for a team that's averaging only 92 PPG its last five contests. Seven times this season Phoenix has lost by 20 or more. As for Golden State, they own the distinction of having both the league's best SU and ATS record. At home, they've gone 25-9-2 against the number, which is pretty frightening when you consider the kinds of spreads they usually have to lay here. Overall, their avg MOV at Oracle Arena for the season is 15.7 pts per game. They just swept a four-game road trip that saw them play at three of the top Western Conference contenders (Portland, Memphis, Clippers) and with this being the team's lone home game in a two-week span, plus it being on national TV, I anticipate no letdown this evening. They've beaten the Suns by 18 and 19 pts the last two times they've faced them. 8* Golden State |
|||||||
04-02-15 | Stanford -1.5 v. Miami (FL) | Top | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
10* Stanford (9:00 ET): One could certainly make the case that Miami (FL) is lucky to even be in this NIT Championship Game as the Hurricanes have had to make B2B second half rallies to overcome Richmond & Temple and done so w/o the services of PG Angel Rodriguez. Now, they are likely to be w/o starting 7'0" center Tonye Jeriki, who suffered a concussion in the last game. Thus, I'm going to stick w/ a Stanford team I was on in their semifinal win, 67-60 against Old Dominion, and call for the Cardinal to cut down the nets Thursday night at MSG. Miami's four NIT wins have come by a total of 16 points, three of them by four or less. Playing at Richmond in the Quarterfinal round last week, they overcame a 30-18 halftime deficit, scoring 45 pts in the second half and dominating the glass. But the key in not only that come from behind win, but also the one against Temple on Tuesday was that both opponents were much worse than usual from three-point range. Richmond shot just 24 percent from behind the arc, roughly 10 percent below their YTD average, while Temple was a horrific 0 for 15 in the second half alone. The comeback wasn't quite as dramatic Tuesday, but now minus more than 20 PPG w/ Rodriguez & Jeriki both out, I don't think the team will be able to live relying on leading scorer Sheldon McClellan so heavily again. Stanford has covered three of its four NIT games thus far, same as Miami, but the difference is that the Cardinal have been favored in every game and really been in control more than some of those final scores indicate. I talked about the Quarterfinal win over Vandy in my analysis Tuesday as Stanford led that game by double digits w/ 2:30 remaining and it was a pair of missed FT's that resulted in their lone non-cover in this tournament. (I had Vandy!). Tuesday against ODU, they led by as many as 21 in the second half before actually having to rally in the 2H for the win and cover. Neither team is overly-reliant on the three-point shot, but Stanford does shoot it better and they too are coming off a game where an opponent couldn't make one. Take the better (and healthier) team. 10* Stanford |
|||||||
04-01-15 | Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz -4 | Top | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): This is a revenge spot that I can only assume the Jazz have been pointing to ever since dropping a game in Denver last Friday, 107-91 as two-point dogs. At the time, that was their fourth consecutive loss, but that losing streak aside this is a team that's been playing very solid basketball for a much longer stretch than you might think. Since losing to the Nuggets, they've bounced back w/ division wins over Oklahoma City & Minnesota, which were double-digit covers to boot. For Denver, this is the middle game of a three-game trip and after three off-days, I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out flat. That won't be the case for the revenge-seeking Jazz. Lay the short number. The Minnesota game on Monday also happened to be a revenge spot for Utah, who improved to a very impressive 34-13 ATS their L47 in such situations w/ the easy win and cover. Believe it or not, but this team also ranks #1 in the league in terms of points allowed, at 94.9 per game. They've held their last two opponents under 90 pts, making it 36 times this year they've allowed 96 or fewer. Defense is likely once again to be the difference maker in this one. When these teams played last week, the Jazz surrendered their highest point total in the L35 games. But the numbers say that it should be Denver that should have more concern about that end of the floor as their the ones who are allowing a staggering 105.1 PPG away from home this year. My personal power ratings indicate this line is not high enough as Utah is basically dead even this year in terms of points scored vs. allowed while Denver has a negative point differential and is playing on the road to boot. The Nuggets are just 11-26 SU on the road this season after suffering a 120-114 loss in Portland Saturday night. Without the home court advantage this time, I don't see them scoring nearly as many points as they did the last time vs. Utah, who have a .667 winning percentage (really!) since February 6th at 16-8 straight up. Denver was the only team besides Golden State to score 100+ against them in regulation last month and I anticipate revenge will be sweet here as they improve to 5-1 ATS this year when laying between 3.5 and 6 pts here at home. 8* Utah |
|||||||
04-01-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +5 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): I realize that the Bucks have been trending in the wrong direction for some time now, but I certainly cannot "sign off" on this line which has the Bulls favored by nearly as many points as when they HOSTED Milwaukee back on February 23rd. I concede that Chicago won that game, 87-71 as seven-point chalk, putting them at 3-0 SU/ATS head to head w/ the Bucks this season. But because of those results, plus the fact the Bulls are off three consecutive wins and covers as favorites, we have ourselves an inflated line tonight. Milwaukee still remains one of the league's better pointspread teams, particularly in the underdog role where they've gone 26-19 ATS. Take the points here. Once upon a time, it appeared as if the Bucks were a lock to finish no worse than sixth in the weak Eastern Conference. But times have changed and they now are just two games up on the seventh place Heat (who lost last night). That and the fact they have triple revenge make this a game "worth circling" if you're Milwaukee. Chicago has a revenge game of its own on the horizon (vs. Detroit), followed by a big showdown vs. LeBron and the Cavs, so this is likely to be the division game that garners the least amount of attention for them. Not so for Milwaukee, who badly needs this game. In handicapping this game, I couldn't believe that the Bucks have lost nine straight at home to the Bulls. Overall, the team's last five wins have all come here at the Bradley Center. Michael Carter-Williams was not on the court for the Bucks when these teams last met, so that's a boost. Also, it should be pointed out that the Bulls have not exactly had the most challenging schedule of late as their last game was against the Knicks. They'd also dropped six of seven on the road (only win at Philadelphia) before winning at Toronto last week. Off three consecutive wins, the team is just 3-8 ATS this season, and not having played since Saturday I can see the Bulls coming out flat. The Bucks, who are coming off a 101-88 loss to Atlanta, have typically bounced back well from a double digit loss this season, going 9-5 ATS in that role. I still have these teams rated fairly evenly and my own personal power ratings say this line should basically be a Pick 'Em. 10* Milwaukee |
|||||||
03-31-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): While my personal power ratings don't indicate that Golden State should be an underdog in any setting, if there is going to be any matchup where you'd actually consider laying points against them, it would be this one as they face my #2 overall ranked team on the road. The Clippers are every bit as hot as the Warriors right now having won seven straight while going 5-1 ATS the last six. GSW has won nine in a row, going 8-1 ATS, but for them this is a fourth straight road game on a trip that has taken them all around the country. Motivation could start to be an issue for the team that is now all but guaranteed to finish w/ the best record in the league (has already clinched home court in the West). This being a national TV game, I expect the Clippers to show up "big time." Los Angeles is 27-10 SU at home this year, averaging 106.2 PPG, so they are one of the few teams that can actually keep pace w/ Golden State. Note that as a favorite, they did defeat them here (back on X-Mas), by a score of 100-86 and that was while shooting below 40 percent from the field. Lately, albeit against some pretty weak competition, they've really turned it on, winning five of their last six by double digits. They just won three straight on the road, over the Knicks, Sixers and Celtics, averaging over 116 points per game in the process. Their average MOV during the seven-game win streak, which has coincided w/ the return of Blake Griffin, is 14.9 PPG, so they won't be intimidated by the fact the Warriors have won by an average of 18.3 PPG their last nine. Interestingly, Golden State is just 3-5 SU/ATS as an underdog this year. That includes 2-4 marks as a road dog of three points or less. Since the All-Star Break, it's happened just two times (them getting points) and they lost both times, at Cleveland and at Denver. Remember that 11 of the Warriors' 13 losses this season have come on the road. Along w/ Atlanta, they are the only other team above 60 percent against the spread this season. Meanwhile, the Clippers have struggled at the betting window, but that's mainly because of high spreads. This line here is a good value. 10* LA Clippers |
|||||||
03-31-15 | Stanford -2.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 67-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* Stanford (9:25 ET): I played against both of these squads in the Quarterfinals of the NIT, and while the results look very similar, they actually were anything but. For starters, Stanford failed to cover in its game vs. Vanderbilt, but I was lucky there as the Commodores essentially trailed the whole way, by as many as double digits w/ 2:30 left in the game. Two missed free throws by the Cardinal in the final three seconds allowed me to escape w/ the cover, taking +3.5 in a 78-75 SU loss. As for Old Dominion, they actually covered their last game, but needed a somewhat miraculous desperation heave to defeat upstart Murray State at the buzzer as they too very nearly blew a late lead in regulation. ODU has the better overall record, but Stanford hails from the much better conference and that is why they are favored, deservingly so. Lay the points. Old Dominion has actually failed to cover every NIT game thus far w/ their last two victories coming by a combined four points. Against Illinois State, they made the go-ahead basket w/ just 19 seconds left, and scored just 50 points on 36.4% shooting. They were much better from the field against Murray State, who conversely had an awful shooting night (especially for them) at 37.7 percent including 5 for 21 from three-point range. Thus, it's not too impressive that they needed the buzzer beater just to prevail there. Also, this game is not in Norfolk where ODU has now won 24 straight. They are just 7-7 SU this year off-campus, scoring three points less than their overall season average while allowing roughly six more per game. Only one of those losses was by fewer than seven points. Stanford had covered its first two NIT games, beating Cal Davis and Rhode Island in comfortable fashion before the unnecessary close call against Vandy. Though the Cardinal have actually been a below .500 team since the start of February, that's not really indicative of their level of play as five times they lost by six points or less, three of those by three points or less. I'm not expecting a blowout by any means here, but Stanford is definitely the better team and should win fairly comfortably. 10* Stanford |
|||||||
03-30-15 | Sacramento Kings v. Memphis Grizzlies -8 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
8* Memphis (8:05 ET): What in the world is going on w/ the Grizzlies? Sunday saw them lose for a third straight time, all by double digit margins. At least yday was a road game (at San Antonio) whereas the other two defeats were their two largest at home all season (Cleveland & Golden State). Looking at those three opponents though, I suppose one could make a clear case that those are the best teams in the league right now and Memphis just isn't at that level. Fortunately for tonight, they return home and face a big drop in class w/ Sacramento coming to town. The Kings had won four straight prior to a loss in New Orleans Friday, but I view this as a big bounce back game for the Grizzlies. Lay the points. As they showed in their last game, Sacramento is not a good road team - at all. They have just 10 wins away from home all season. Only four teams have fewer. Away from home, they give up 107.6 points per game, a horrible number, and while the defensive numbers looked better during the recent win streak, consider they played Washington, Charlotte and Philadelphia at home. Even the Suns, who they beat in Phoenix, have been struggling mightily on the offensive end of the floor lately. Meanwhile, despite what's happened over the course of the last three games, Memphis still allows only 94.3 PPG at home. You have to take into account the larger picture over a smaller, albeit recent, sample size. The last two times these teams have played were in Sacramento and the Grizzlies came into those games favored by 5 and 6.5 points. So w/ the change in venue, there appears to be a little bit of value on the home side here. Granted, Sacramento won the last meeting, late last month. But they have covered just five of their last 19 games against teams with winning records and I expect this to be a game that the Grizzlies take very seriously and treat as a "must-win." For the Kings, who just had a four-game win streak snapped and are well out of playoff contention, I can't see them matching the intensity. 8* Memphis |
|||||||
03-30-15 | Houston Rockets +2 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:35 ET): These teams are trending in opposite directions. The Rockets won again yday, putting them at 7-1 SU their last eight. Their own run, coupled w/ Memphis going into the tank, now has Houston in second place in the Western Conference. That would be huge for them as the way things currently stand Dallas, not San Antonio, would be their first round opponent! Toronto was once second in the Eastern Conference, but they fell off long ago and now find themselves in fourth thanks to a bad second half to the season. They've dropped 13 of 19, and their last three wins were against: Minnesota, New York and the Lakers. Not an impressive group of opponent, huh? Take the points w/ the better team. The Raptors' win over the Lakers was on Friday and I was on the Under, which cashed by over 25 pts. Toronto won by holding the Lakers to only 83 pts, but a similar defensive effort here is unlikely for a variety of reasons. One, is that they allow 101.2 points per game, one of the highest numbers in the Eastern Conference. Two, is that they are playing the Rockets, a team that averages 104.4 PPG on the road. That's actually a higher number than what they average at home. Toronto has now officially clinched the Atlantic Division, guaranteeing them a top four seed, and won't have PG Kyle Lowry for this one. Houston won't have Dwight Howard, but they've proven they can win w/o him, so I'm less concerned there. The reason I'm not concerned about the Rockets being w/o Howard is James Harden, who continues to carry the team. His ability to create points on drives, whether it's getting to the free throw line or not, must be reckoned with. Also, after going to Washington and winning yday, Houston is now 22-6 SU (18-9-1 ATS) vs. the Eastern Conference, including a perfect 9-0 straight up vs. the Atlantic Division. For the sake of comparison, Toronto is 2-7 SU/1-7-1 ATS vs. the much better Southwest Division. They are also just 9-16 ATS L25 games overall and 8-18 ATS off a double digit win. 10* Houston. |
|||||||
03-30-15 | Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Hornets -3.5 | Top | 116-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): With both of these teams within one-game of the eighth and final playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference, this game carries tremendous importance. The line is perhaps somewhat inflated because the Hornets are at home, and it is a little bit scary that they're just 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 pts, but then again Boston is just 14-22 SU on the road and playing the second of back to backs. The Celtics lost yday, at home, to the Clippers by a score of 119-106 and it wasn't even that close as they trailed by 26 entering the fourth quarter. Charlotte, after losing six of its previous seven, beat a depleted Hawks roster 115-100 here at home the last time we saw them. Lay the points. Charlotte has won two of the previous three matchups w/ Boston, losing the last one on the road, by eight as 1.5-pt dogs. At that time, it was the third win in a row for the Celtics, who have cooled off significantly. After going 10-3 SU over a 13-game stretch, they've since dropped five of seven and one of those two wins was by four over the sorry Knicks. I suppose the Hornets are on a similar trajectory. The loss to Boston was actually their only defeat in a seven-game stretch and since then they're 3-8 SU L11. But, again, they are at home and the much better defensive team, which I think is the difference maker here. The Hornets allow just 96.8 points per game at home, and they are top four overall in points allowed. Boston allows 102.6 PPG on the road. The only team in the Eastern Conference that allows more overall is Orlando. Charlotte shot the ball well in their last game, 52.5 percent overall and 46.2 percent from three-point range. With the poor defense, Boston's issues are furthered by the fact that are shooting just 25.9 percent from three-point range their last six games. 8* Charlotte |
|||||||
03-29-15 | Detroit Pistons +3 v. Miami Heat | Top | 102-109 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
10* Detroit (6:05 ET): My own personal power ratings indicate that the Pistons are the better team here and w/ the Heat still owning a losing record on their home floor, I'll gladly grab the points here. Especially because the Pistons have won and covered four straight, the most recent being an easy one at Orlando two nights ago where they prevailed 111-97 as a short road chalk. Detroit won the only previous meeting this season, by 17 at home, last month. Miami is off a poor road trip where they lost three of four and didn't score more than 93 pts in any game. I've said it before & I'll say it again: Miami is not a very good team. They rank 28th in points, last in rebounding and 28th in assists per game. The fact that they are 3rd in points allowed has saved them somewhat, but it's not enough when you average just 90 PPG the last five contests like Miami has. They lost by 13 at Atlanta Friday night, despite the Hawks scoring only 10 points in the fourth quarter. Injuries have really taken their toll on this team as Hassan Whiteside's absence makes them even weaker on the boards, if that's possible. As a favorite this season, the Heat are barely cashing at a 40 percent clip. For the sake of comparison, Detroit has topped 100 pts in four straight games. HC Stan Van Gundy finally seems to have found a lineup that works and interestingly that's come w/ Greg Monroe out of the lineup. PG Reggie Jackson now has two triple doubles in the last five games. The Pistons are only being outscored by less than two points per game for the season and are 28-20 ATS when taking points at the betting window. 10* Detroit. |
|||||||
03-29-15 | Gonzaga +3 v. Duke | Top | 52-66 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
10* Gonzaga (5:05 ET): When I look at this Elite 8 matchup, I see the better team getting points. It's not like Gonzaga is demonstrably better than Duke, but the points do seem like a premium considering the Zags' only two losses this year were each by three points, one in OT at Arizona. This will be just the second time all year that the Bulldogs come in as the underdog; the first being Arizona. These are two of the best offensive teams in the entire country, while both are fairly mediocre defensively, but that's nullified somewhat by the history of poor shooting here in Houston at Reliant Stadium. In the end, the fact that Gonzaga doesn't rely too heavily on the three-point shot will be the difference here as they advance to their first ever Final Four. Duke is infamously now 3-0 ATS in this Tournament after the "controversial" cover Friday night vs. Utah. The win made the Blue Devils 6-1 SU this season in games decided by six points or less, a pretty fortunate record if you ask me & that includes 2-0 in OT games. Something else that Duke was extremely fortunate on against Utah was that the Utes scored only 12 second-chance points despite 18 offensive rebounds. Getting back to the issues of shooting at this venue, other than freshman Justise Winslow, the rest of the team was just 1 for 11 on two-point attempts outside the paint. The Blue Devils' reliance on freshman also bears mentioning here as Gonzaga's roster is clearly the more experienced of the two here. That Duke-Utah game also offered Gonzaga a blueprint on how to defend Jahlil Okafor. Points in the paint will likely determine the winner of this game. Gonzaga had 42 of those vs. UCLA, the most allowed in any game by the Bruins the L2 seasons. Remember that the Zags lead the nation in field goal percentage at a pretty ridiculous 52.4 percent. There have been six games this season where they shot 60 percent or better, including that impressive performance vs. Iowa in the Round of 32. Consider that the 74 points Gonzaga scored vs. UCLA were their fewest in a game this month. Take the points. 10* Gonzaga. |
|||||||
03-29-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Brooklyn Nets -7 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (3:35 ET): This may seem like a dangerous spot to lay points w/ a team like the Nets, especially as they come off B2B wins, the last one a real shocker - 106-98 over Cleveland. Somehow, despite being subpar at best, this team has managed to stay in the playoff hunt. That "somehow" is of course by virtue of playing in the very weak Eastern Conference. They enter the day one-half game back of Boston (who hosts the Clippers later Sunday), so there's a good chance that after today's results the Nets could find themselves as a playoff team. The opponent being the Lakers helps too. Thanks to the motivational edges, I'll side w/ Brooklyn here. This will be the Lakers' fourth straight road game, over a six-day span. I played the Under in their last game, and won it easily, as they finished w/ just 83 points in a double-digit loss at Toronto. Overall this month, this once proud franchise has lost 11 of 14 games. Two of those wins came at the expense of Philadelphia and Minnesota. So, in other words, things aren't going very well right now in Laker-land. Defensively, they rank 28th and allow 106.5 PPG on the road. Brooklyn already beat the Lakers earlier this year, in LA, as three-point favorites 114-105. So, there's a little bit of value w/ this number w/ the switch in venue. It's not like that game was a long time ago either; it took place late last month. Beating the Cavs right now is no small order & the Nets held them to 8 for 30 from three-point range. Any potential letdown is nullified by the playoff race, also it's tough to imagine the Nets not turning things around at home where they've gone just 13-20 SU this season. Most of their remaining games in the regular season are at the Barclays Center. 8* Brooklyn. |
|||||||
03-28-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder -5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): Things have gone downhill pretty suddenly for Utah, who lost for a fourth straight time last night, in Denver by a score of 107-91 as two-point dogs. The previous two games, both here at home, were two-point losses. The number here was bet up rather quickly in the direction of the Thunder and I can't say that I'm surprised as they will be looking to bounce back from their worst loss of the season, which came Wednesday in San Antonio by a score of 130-91. That's a downright shocking final for a team that had won its previous four and six of seven. With a three-game lead for the final playoff spot in the West, OKC can't afford to be dropping any more games, so look for the expected bounce back to take place here. Granted, the Thunder do not have a good road record, which is why I've played against them in similar situations this year. But they also haven't been coming off a 39-point loss before. By many metrics, Wednesday was their worst game of the season. They allowed 71 points in the first half, their most in any game this season, and their shooting percentage of 40.0 was their worst in the L14 games. The Kevin Durant situation is now a "done deal" as they know he's not coming back this year and in a way I think that having closure on that will help. They're 12-6 the L18 games w/o Durant and their record since the All-Star Break is the third best in the league, trailing on Golden State and Cleveland. Utah's defense has slipped noticeably the last four games where they've allowed 100+ three times. They hadn't allowed 100+ even once in their previous 18 games. A major culprit has been opponents' three-point shooting and that will likely be an issue again tonight as OKC has been at 39.1 percent from behind the arc its last nine games. Russell Westbrook played a bad game vs. San Antonio. While the team's over-reliance on him is concerning and he was unlikely to maintain his averages of 30.3 points, 9.1 rebounds and 11.1 assists from the L18 games, he will play better tonight. The recent play of Enes Kanter has also been encouraging. 8* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
03-28-15 | Arizona -1 v. Wisconsin | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
10* Arizona (6:05 ET): The 2-seed is favored over the 1-seed here, but that was to be expected considering that most power ratings have Arizona higher to begin with, plus you have the revenge angle from LY's Elite Eight where the Badgers (+3.5) handed the Wildcats a 64-63 loss in an overtime classic. There, interestingly enough, 'Zona was the 1-seed. Now, it's time for them to turn the tables and exact revenge in a game they've been waiting a year for. Note that while it hasn't happened in many, many years, the last 7 teams we've had an Elite 8 rematch in the NCAA Tournament, the team that lost the previous year ended up taking the rematch. That's what I see happening here. Wisconsin's National POY candidate Frank Kaminsky had a game for the ages last year, pouring in 28 points on 11 of 20 shooting and grabbing 11 rebounds. But remember that the Wildcats were also missing Brandon Ashley, a 6'9" forward that is averaging 12.1 points and 5.2 rebounds this season. They also didn't have freshman Stanley Johnson, their leading scorer this season (14.1 PPG). Ashley is the team's second highest scorer, so as you can see while Wisconsin is basically the same team they were last year, Arizona definitely appears better on paper. This will also be the first time all season that the Badgers come in as the underdog, though the line is so small here that it's rather irrelevant. Neither of these teams had an easy time in the Sweet 16 as both had to come from behind in the 2nd half. After recording comfortable victories over TX-Southern & Ohio State on the first weekend, Arizona overcame poor overall shooting (.407) vs. Xavier to pull out an eight-point victory. The good news though is that the Wildcats fared better against the zone, something they struggled w/ early on vs. Ohio State. Wisconsin, meanwhile, stole the cover late against North Carolina as they won by seven laying six. The Badgers did a shockingly good job on the boards & in the paint against UNC and eventually got the game to their pace. But one thing I don't see repeating itself is the play of Sam Dekker, who had a career-best 23 pts Thurs on 9 for 9 shooting. Remember that w/ this game being played in LA, Arizona should have a massive edge in crowd support. 10* Arizona |
|||||||
03-27-15 | Utah +5.5 v. Duke | Top | 57-63 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 54 m | Show |
10* Utah (9:45 ET): Unlike the other three #1 seeds, Duke covered its first two tournament games. So it's not surprising to see that the public has bet the Blue Devils heavily in this matchup. But despite underdog Utah being far less heralded, I see this as an even matchup where taking the points may be a luxury we don't even need. I played the Utes in their first tourney game, a very impressive blowout of trendy Stephen F Austin and then after a slow start they had little problem w/ Georgetown in the Round of 32. Duke has not been challenged yet, first drawing overmatched Robert Morris, then a San Diego State team that was dealing w/ a widespread illness. I smell a potential upset here. Take the points. Nationally, I don't think people understand just how good this Utah squad really is. Over the last three seasons, they are a remarkable 59-29 ATS in all lined games and that includes a 25-12 mark as underdogs (3-1 this year). They've gone 21-7 ATS out of conference. A combination of defense and strong post play are why the Utes have advanced fairly easily thus far. Holding Stephen F Austin to only 50 points (on 33.3 percent shooting) is very impressive when you consider the Lumberjacks were a top ten team nationally in PPG and top five in field goal percentage. Then, against G'town, the Utes shot 57.9 percent from the field while contesting the vast majority of the Hoyas shots on the other end of the floor. Big man Jakob Poeltl has been huge, literally and figuratively, thus far. Not just because he's scored 30 pts in two games either. He has nine blocked shots and is a big reason why the Utes have allowed just 20 PPG in the paint total in the tournament, the fewest of any remaining team. Utah also has a senior point guard (Delon Wright) that I really like. Compared to the Utes, Duke is a far less balanced basketball team. We know that the Blue Devils are very good offensively, but on the defensive end, they rank outside of the top 40 in efficiency. Meanwhile, Utah joins Kentucky and Arizona as the only two teams to rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Getting the better defensive team, plus the points, is a great value and Utah is also 3-0 ATS this season when playing w/ 5 or more days rest. I see this game coming down to the very end. 10* Utah |
|||||||
03-27-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Houston Rockets -13 | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:05 ET): The Rockets are somewhat difficult to figure out. They currently are in third place in the loaded Western Conference, yet I don't think anybody (myself included) thinks they are one of the three best teams the Conference has to offer. Yet, they have been pretty consistent and unlike teams like Memphis and Dallas they continue to have a positive point differential over the last quarter of the season. One thing that they generally do very well is take care of business against bad teams as they're 24-4 SU vs. foes w/ a losing record, going 17-10-1 ATS. I'm not afraid to lay the big number here as Minnesota is allowing 108.4 points per game on the road. This will be the fourth and final meeting of the season between these two teams. Houston has won each of the first three, including a neutral site game in the early part of the season. It was an 11-point victory (as eight-point chalk) when they last met, here in Houston, at the end of last month. So as you can see, the asking price is far greater this time around. But deservedly so as the T'wolves have dropped eight of 10 w/ the two victories coming by a combined five points. They just lost to the Lakers, at home, on Wednesday while Houston has won five of its last six overall including B2B road wins over Indiana and New Orleans. All three previous matchups have been high scoring (3-0 for Over bettors) w/ Houston being remarkably consistent, finishing w/ 113, 114 and 113 points scored. I'd expect somewhere around that number again here given Minnesota's defensive issues plus the fact the Rockets have averaged a solid 106.4 PPG its last five games overall. Houston also only shot 41% in the last meeting, but as per usual got to the free throw line a lot (thanks to James Harden), but even there they were only 67.4 percent. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockets score 120+ in this game and remember they now have Dwight Howard back in the middle as well. Meanwhile, the Minnesota roster currently resembles a M*A*S*H unit w/ as many as seven players likely out for tonight's contest. 8* Houston |
|||||||
03-27-15 | NC State v. Louisville -2 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 92 h 39 m | Show |
8* Louisville (7:35 ET): This is a big revenge spot for Rick Pitino' Cardinals, who lost the only regular season matchup w/ North Carolina State by a score of 74-65 as 10.5-point home favorites. Obviously, the line was going to be lower this go around at a neutral setting, but I view this as an over-adjustment by the linesmakers. NC State is not a great team by any means. Yes, they have some impressive wins this year, including ousting the top seed Villanova last weekend, but both tourney opponents thus far have done the Wolfpack many favors and made mistakes we should not expect from Louisville here. I am pretty shocked that the public is actually siding w/ the underdog here. Lay the small number. Coming into this Tournament, Louisville was not exactly regarded as capable of making a deep run. They went just 5-5 SU over their L10 games and barely surviving 13-seed UC Irvine made it appear as if the Cardinals would not escape the first weekend. But they turned in a very good performance against Northern Iowa in the Round of 32, scoring 1.20 points per possession while at the same time holding the Panthers to just 39.1 percent shooting. A key stat to remember is that last year (against Kentucky) was the first time HC Pitino ever lost in the Sweet 16. The Cardinals are clearly better than their record when you consider that six of their eight losses are to teams still left standing in the "Big Dance." Meanwhile, NC State comes in w/ 13 losses on the year and historically that is not a great sign as over the L10 years there have been three teams to have that many in the Sweet 16 and all three lost in this round, doing so by an average of 23 points per game. In the first matchup w/ Louisville, the Wolfpack held the Cardinals to just 33 percent shooting while at the same time shooting 45 percent themselves. I expect a reversal of those percentages here tonight. Yes, the since dismissed Chris Jones led L'ville w/ 20 pts in that first matchup, but I don't see Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell combining to go 4 for 16 from the field again either. Rozier, in particular, has been fantastic in the Tournament. Also, L'ville was just 57 percent at the foul line back on Valentine's Day. That number is very likely to improve here as well. 8* Louisville |
|||||||
03-27-15 | UCLA v. Gonzaga -8.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 91 h 19 m | Show |
10* Gonzaga (7:15 ET): Laying this many points in the NCAA Tournament can be risky by this line seems awfully low, doesn't it? Especially since Gonzaga won by 13 in Westwood earlier this season. Now we're getting a near identical number on a neutral floor. The 'Zags turned in an incredibly impressive performance in the Rd of 32, beating Iowa (who had turned in a similarly impressive performance two nights earlier vs. Davidson), 87-68, and there's little doubt in my mind that they are the team that will advance here. As I said when I played UCLA in their last game, they've gotten some good fortune so far in this Tourney, first benefiting from a bogus goaltending call against SMU, then drawing a very weak UAB team in the Rd of 32. I look for Gonzaga to win big here. Lay the points. The Bulldogs of Gonzaga have lost two games all year, both by just three points, and one of those was to Arizona in OT. They lead the nation in field goal percentage (.524) and are 10th in points, 30th in rebounding and 6th in assists per game. They've averaged 86.5 PPG in their two tourney wins, and just shredded Iowa's defense to the tune of 61.5% shooting (6th time this year the Zags shot 60% or better), making all six uncontested three-pointers they took. On defense, they held the Hawkeyes to just 1.01 points per possession. That was a very impressive overall performance against a good Iowa team. I think that because of past Tournament failures many are underrating these Zags, which is a mistake because this is probably Mark Few's best team since he came to Spokane. History is not on UCLA's side here. Over the last 10 years, there have been only three other teams to advance to the Sweet 16 w/ 13 or more regular season losses. Those three have all lost, by an average of 23 points per game. When the Bruins hosted Gonzaga earlier this year (UCLA's only home loss), they shot 47 percent from three-point range and still lost by double digits. That obviously does not bode well for tonight as the advantage UCLA had on the inside over UAB won't be present here either. Back in December, Gonzaga held them to season lows of 22 points in the paint and nine second chance points. Gonzaga shot 58.5 percent from the floor in that game. This shapes up to be another one-sided matchup for the Zags. 10* Gonzaga |
|||||||
03-26-15 | Wichita State -1.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 70-81 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
10* Wichita State (7:15 ET): It took me awhile to get the proper read on this matchup where the lower seeded team has surprisingly been bet to the role of favorite (as of Weds afternoon). Now, as you may remember, I played Wichita State in their impressive 78-65 "upset" of in-state rival Kansas on Sunday. The fact they get ample time off in order to avoid any kind of letdown from that big win is huge here for the Shockers, especially w/ a potential rematch looming in the Elite Eight vs. Kentucky, the team that eliminated them from LY's Tournament. Not to get lost in the shuffle is this Sweet 16 matchup vs. Notre Dame, a team that is very lucky to be here as they continue to underperform in this event under HC Mike Brey. I do believe the correct team is favored here and when the brackets were initially released I had WSU going to the Elite 8. I'll stick with that here. When I played against Notre Dame in the Rd of 64 I noted their dramatic split in offensive vs. defensive efficiencies. While ranking in the top five nationally in the former, they are outside the top 100 in the latter and as I said before teams w/ that kind of dramatic split typically are not long for this Tournament. The Fighting Irish also came in overvalued due to surprisingly winning the ACC Tournament. Thus, it should not be too surprising to see that they are 0-2 ATS thus far beating Northeastern and Butler by only a combined seven-point margin. They needed OT to get by Butler on Saturday despite the Bulldogs shooting just 33.3 percent for the game. Not a good sign. Nor is the fact ND is -26 on the boards through two games. All told, this has been a pretty "lucky" team this season (4-0 SU in OT games and 6-3 SU in games decided by 5 pts or less in regulation). That "luck," Irish or not, is due to eventually run out. Remember that ND is 1-9 ATS in the NCAA Tournament under HC Brey. Wichita State is a more balanced team that Notre Dame, ranking in the top 20 in both offensive & defensive efficiency. The only other teams w/ that distinction are: Kentucky, Arizona & Utah. In beating Indiana and Kansas (how impressive does that sound), the Shockers proved they could win in different ways as against the Hoosiers they averaged 1.17 points per possession while against the Jayhawks they allowed only 65 pts. It's difficult to bet against Brey in the wake of his mother passing, but his Irish are just not solid enough defensively to go any deeper in this Tournament. Wichita State is an impressive 63-34 ATS in all lined games the L3 years. 10* Wichita State |
|||||||
03-25-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Denver Nuggets -11 | Top | 99-85 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
NOT A PICK.....intended to be UNDER! |
|||||||
03-25-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards -3.5 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): These two are doing one heck of a job playing themselves out of playoff position. Washington, thanks to a good start to the season, is still safe even after three straight road losses. But Indiana, who has now lost six in a row, trails Boston by a full game for the eighth and final spot in the weak Eastern Conference. The Wizards have to be happy to be back home after getting drubbed in three consecutive games on the West Coast, especially given the current state of their opponent, who has fallen by double digits in four of those last six defeats. Homecourt advantage should be big here and I'm going to lay the points w/ what has been the better team for the majority of the season. Washington comes into this game at 25-10 SU at home this season. They average 102.2 points per game here, which is a full four points above their overall season average. They've won five straight at the Verizon Center, and before having to go out West, they'd swept a three-game home stand including victories over Portland and Memphis. While their offensive numbers definitely improve at home, it is the Wizards' defense that will likely win them this game. A lack of it cost them against Sacramento, the Clippers and Golden State, but in the 11 games previous they did not allow a single opponent to score 100 pts. Monday at Golden State saw one of the wildest flips from one half to another I've seen all year as the Wiz only trailed by three going into half before eventually losing by 31! I can't possibly see Washington playing as poorly as they did in the 2H Monday. They made exactly one field goal and scored all of eight points in the third quarter, which is where the game was decided. It marked a new season-low in points for them. I'm looking for the bounce back here as Indiana is just 12-22 SU on the road, yet they seem to be getting plenty of respect from the linesmakers for some reason. Keep in mind that this team is ten games below .500 and averaging just 95.6 PPG on the road. Yes, they could potentially be a "tough out" in the 1st rd of the playoffs, but that's only if they get there & right now I'm not sure they will. 8* Washington |
|||||||
03-25-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Charlotte Hornets -3 | Top | 91-88 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:00 ET): Personally, I thought Brooklyn was overvalued going into their last game, which they lost (as 3-pt favorites) to Boston, 110-91. In retrospect, I should have played that one. Granted, the Nets had won four of their previous five, but make no mistake about it, this is not a very good team. They have one of the worst per game point differentials in the entire league right now and while they are the ONLY team in the league to have a better record on the road than at home, I cannot endorse them this evening in Charlotte, even plus the points. Both of these teams remain within striking distance of the eighth and final playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference. Yet, I'd be shocked if the Nets made it. The Hornets seem like the safer proposition to me and entering the day just one-half game behind Boston w/ a chance to move ahead (Celtics play Miami), they should be supremely motivated here. Even though they are coming off a 1-4 SU road trip and are 2-6 SU their last eight overall, and possibly w/o Al Jefferson, the team has managed to go 7-3 SU this year w/o their star power forward. When I played against the team two days ago, it was because they were at the end of a road trip & w/o rest. Defense is key with this team as they rank 4th in the league in points allowed (97.4 per game). Even after they beat Milwaukee and Indiana in consecutive nights, I saw little reason to believe in the Nets. They've allowed their last two opponents to shoot better than 50% while their own percentages have been highly erratic. Remember that the 129 points scored against Milwaukee came in a triple overtime game. This will be their fourth game in six nights, having had to alternate between home and road. The road team has won huge in the previous two matchups between these teams, but that's a trend I cannot see continuing. 8* Charlotte |
|||||||
03-25-15 | Murray State +2 v. Old Dominion | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
10* Murray State (7:00 ET): In yday's NIT analysis, I made a bit of a mea culpa and admitted I was wrong in going against Murray State on Monday when they went to Tulsa and ended up winning 83-62 in a game that was probably not even that close. Traditionally, the NIT format (for the first three rounds) does see the home team prevail more often than not, but of course yday we saw the road team go 2-0 ATS, including an outright win by Miami over Richmond and then luckily for me Vanderbilt stole the cover against Stanford. I think it's pretty clear that Murray State should have been a top seed in this event and tonight I'll call for them to make it B2B wins on the road as they should go to Old Dominion and win. ODU has now failed to cover both of its NIT games. Monday, they beat Illinois State by just a single point in what was a revenge game from early in the season. They did lead almost the entire way. Now, the Monarchs are 19-0 SU at home this season and have won 23 straight here at the Ted Constant Convocation Center, so this would seem to be a good value. But going back to when they were "one and done" in the C-USA Tourney, ODU has failed to cover three in a row and one could make the case that this will be the toughest team they've had to face since beating VCU back in November. Murray State has lost just one time since November and unfortunately for them it was in the OVC Tournament Final against Belmont, a game decided at the buzzer. Three of their five losses this season came by three points or less. The Racers have a really good road record at 12-2 SU and Monday night at Tulsa they completely dominated, leading by as many as 23. That was against one of the better defensive teams in the entire country mind you as the Golden Hurricane had allowed just three teams to shoot better than 50 percent all season. The fact Murray State was able to shoot 14 of 25 from three-point range while holding Tulsa to 2 of 22 is quite impressive, but perhaps should not have come as a surprise considering that's now four straight games the Racers have scored 80+ points. 10* Murray State |
|||||||
03-24-15 | Vanderbilt +3 v. Stanford | Top | 75-78 | Push | 0 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
10* Vanderbilt (9:00 ET): Well, last night we saw that home teams can indeed be fallible in the NIT as I made a bad call w/ Tulsa against Murray State. In retrospect, perhaps I should have known better as the home court edge wasn't enough to counteract the visitors simply being a better team. So now we're down to the final eight w/ all winners in the quarterfinals moving on to Madison Square Garden for the NIT's version of the "Final Four." Believe it or not, but I'm going to back a road team here as the numbers indicate Vanderbilt was one of the "unluckiest" teams in the country during the regular season (1-8 SU in games decided by 5 pts or less!), so they're due for a turnaround and I feel that taking the points is safe bet. Already here in the NIT, we've started to see the Commodores' fortunes change. It started when the top seed in their region, Colorado State, was ousted by South Dakota State in the opening round. After beating St. Mary's on the road, 75-64 as three-point dogs, the Commies took advantage by beating South Dakota State pretty handily, 92-77 as eight-point chalk. They actually did trail early in the second half, but their hot shooting was too much for the road dog to overcome. Vandy finished the game at 58.3 percent from the field and scored 59 pts in the 2H alone. Said South Dakota State HC Scott Nacy, "This is a very good offensive team." Thus, they become attractive when taking points. For the season, Vanderbilt is 8-5 ATS as a dog, but w/ six outright upsets. Stanford got here w/ victories over Cal Davis and Rhode Island, both here in Palo Alto. However, you may recall that this was not a good team down the stretch as the Cardinal went 0-5 ATS in their five games previous to the start of the NIT, winning only once, and in fact they were just 2-9 ATS L11 coming into this tournament. That stretch included outright losses to UCLA and Oregon on this floor and let's also not forget the way they were drubbed in the Pac 12 Tournament by Utah. All of those teams obviously made the NCAA Tournament, but the numbers actually bear out that Vandy was actually at the level of an Oregon or a UCLA and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they took the NIT. 10* Vanderbilt. |
|||||||
03-24-15 | Miami Heat v. Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 | Top | 88-89 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): I've said it before & I'll say it again here. The Miami Heat are not a very good basketball team. They rank 27th in the league in points, last in rebounds and 29th (i.e. next to last) in assists per game. They've been outscored by their opponents this season. So for them to come in here as a slight road favorite is a bit of a head-scratcher, at least from where I sit. I'll concede that the Bucks are in a terrible way right now, having lost six straight, but this is the spot where I see them snapping their losing streak as you should take note they are already 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the Heat this season. The Bucks took a tough loss on Sunday as they blew a double digit lead, at home, against Cleveland. They ended up losing by 18, thus not even covering the spread. Ending up on the wrong end of a 26-5 run turned what was at one point an 11-point 3Q lead into a 15-point deficit halfway through the 4Q. Turnovers doomed Milwaukee, who also had no answer for LeBron James. Fortunately for tonight, he doesn't play for Miami anymore. Bench scoring has been way down for the Bucks during this terrible 4-13 SU stretch of theirs, by about 50%, so a little "market correction" has to be in order there, right? At home is where your reserves will always play better. This is a critical game for Milwaukee, who at one point appeared to be a lock for the top six in the Eastern Conference, but is now just 1.5 games ahead of the Heat. Meanwhile, I played against Miami on Sunday and was rewarded w/ an easy cover as Oklahoma City blew them out, 93-75. That snapped the Heat's three-game win streak, but all of those victories came at home. Not only have they lost twice to Milwaukee at home this season, but in their lone visit to the Bradley Center, they were blown out by 24 pts. At one point, the Bucks owned the best ATS record in the league. They're still a solid 39-29-2 vs. the number overall, including 25-17 when taking points. Look for a bounce back performance tonight. 10* Milwaukee |
|||||||
03-23-15 | Murray State v. Tulsa -4 | Top | 83-62 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (9:00 ET): It seems as if everyone is on the road dog here and given the history of the NIT, including this year's limited results, that would appear to be unwise. Perhaps Murray State is a sentimental choice after getting "snubbed" by the NCAA selection committee, but the bottom line here is that I think this number is far too small as they play at Tulsa. While Murray State did cover its opening round NIT game (81-66 over UTEP) and Tulsa did not (beat William & Mary 70-67), all that's done is add to the public perception here and shrink the line further than it should be. I realize that Tulsa's record is a bit of a mirage, but they are 13-4 SU at home and allow just 59.4 points per game here. Home teams typically take care of business in the NIT. Lay the number. Note that the final score was a bit misleading for Tulsa last Tuesday as they led William and Mary by as many as 21 points in the second half before things got a little too close for comfort. Once W&M switched to a 1-3-1 zone in the 2H, the Golden Hurricane struggled to score, but fortunately their own defense saved them, holding the Tribe (who rank 7th nationally in FG%) to just 33.8 percent shooting for the game. Murray State will not be as formidable defensively as the Racers allow over 70 PPG on the road. Remember that William & Mary was a regular season conference champion as well, just like Murray State, who despite being seeded lower (than Tulsa) I feel played a weaker 1st rd opponent (UTEP). Murray State played only two NCAA Tournament teams out of conference and neither game went well as they lost to Xavier and Valparaiso by an average of 31 points per game! I concede that it's not really a fair comparison because Tulsa is not a NCAA Tourney team, but note that Murray State also lost to a Houston team that Tulsa beat three times during the year. Playing in the American, the Golden Hurricane also faced the better competition all year, plus they also took on Wichita State and Oklahoma out of conference. Murray State pulled away late in the game vs. UTEP and despite a sterling road record, I see them failing to get the job done here. 10* Tulsa |
|||||||
03-23-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Chicago Bulls -5.5 | Top | 86-98 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): This is actually a double revenge spot for the Bulls, who are also coming off a disappointing 107-91 loss in Detroit on Saturday. So they certainly shouldn't be lacking motivation as they take the court tonight against Charlotte, a team that needed a big come from behind effort last night in Minnesota to snap a three-game losing streak. Just ten days ago, the Hornets beat the Bulls (in Charlotte) 101-91 and a couple weeks before that they won here at the United Center by a score of 98-86 (were +7). The linesmakers haven't adjusted too much here and that's because they know Chicago is simply the better team and that the situation is in their favor. Lay the points. Charlotte, still in contention for a playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference, has not been playing well of late - at all. Going into last night, they'd dropped five of six, twice failing to score even 70 pts. They trailed Minnesota at the half last night and were able to come back despite allowing the T'wolves to shoot 55.4 percent for the game, only the third time since the 1996-97 season season Minnesota shot that well in a game and still lost. The Hornets trailed by as many as 13 in the first half. Even w/ the win, this is a shaky road team at best as they've gone just 14-20 straight up away from home this season. Situationally, it's not a good spot either as this will be their fifth consecutive road game over an eight day span and the second time they've had to play back to backs. Offensively, I don't think Charlotte can hang here. They average only 94.5 PPG and as mentioned above they've had some recent "stinkers," particularly the game at Utah that kicked off this trip. As I've said before, this is not your usual Tom Thibodeau coached team as this season the Bulls are averaging 102.1 PPG at home. What's shocking about what happened Saturday vs. Detroit is that the Bulls led by 19 halfway through the third quarter before ending up on the wrong side of a 54-19 run to close the game. They also blew a 19-point lead the last time they faced Charlotte. With Taj Gibson back in the lineup (and possibly Jimmy Butler?), look for the Bulls to take care of business and finish the deal this time. 10* Chicago |
|||||||
03-23-15 | Houston Rockets +1 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
8* Houston (7:05 ET): Both teams here are somewhat trending in the wrong direction as we get closer to the playoffs. The Rockets took a bad loss Saturday to Phoenix, at home no less. I know because I was on them. They fell 117-102 and what is concerning there is giving up all those points to a team that had been struggling to score. Indiana, however, has more concern after losing five straight and falling out of playoff position. This streak comes after they'd won seven straight and has entirely been against Eastern Conference teams. Versus the West this season, the Pacers are just 8-18 straight up and that includes a double digit loss in Houston back in January. The Rockets have been the better team all year and are a good value here. Typically, Houston bounces back w/ a strong performance after the kind of loss they took Saturday night. This season, they are 10-1 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite and 10-2 ATS following a double digit loss, two trends that undoubtedly have some overlap between them. Again, lack of defense was the issue against the Suns as they allowed 54 points in the paint, which is 11.3 more than they allow per game for the season. I suppose one could point towards the absence of Dwight Howard, but he's been out for a long time and the team's defensive numbers hadn't really dipped as much as you might think w/o him in the lineup. Offense is not an issue for the Rockets, who actually score more per game on the road than at home. The last time we saw this team on the road, they beat the Clippers outright. Indiana's offense had gone in the tank for four games prior to Saturday's matchup w/ Brooklyn. The problem there was defense as they allowed an unforgivable 123 points to an offensively inept Nets squad, losing outright as 8.5-point chalk. It was a bad situation for the Pacers when you consider they were coming off a close loss in Cleveland the previous night, but then again Brooklyn had just played a triple overtime game the night before. Indiana is just 3-8 SU/4-7 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite & I just think they lack the requisite amount of firepower needed to compete here. 8* Houston |
|||||||
03-22-15 | West Virginia +1 v. Maryland | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (8:40 ET): These were two popular picks to be upset in the Round of 64, but here we are Sunday and the "chalk walked" in both instances and we have the traditional 4 vs. 5 matchup w/ Maryland taking on West Virginia; the winner moving on to face Kentucky. Actually, the above statement is a bit misleading as Maryland did not cover its first matchup, beating Valparaiso only 65-62 as 4.5-point faves Friday. I went against the Terps there and will do the same here as I still believe that this team was "overseeded." The win over Valpo continued a string of incredible good fortune for the contingent from College Park, which is now an insane 9-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. Look for that "luck" to run out this evening. I thought that West Virginia was more impressive than the 68-62 final score showed vs. Buffalo Friday afternoon. They led the entire way and held Buffalo scoreless for the final 2:42 of the game. They forced a turnover on roughly 26% of the Bulls' total possessions, which is "par for the course" as the Mountaineers led the nation by forcing 19.6 TO's per game, which in turn led to the most PPG off turnovers nationally (20.7). Another big deal in Morgantown is the return of seniors Juwan Staten and Gary Browne, Staten in particular. The team lost three of four w/o their starting point guard and was "one and done" in the Big 12 Tournament. With him now back in the fold, they are far more dangerous. Maryland had no Tournament experience prior to Friday and has a pair of freshman guards who I feel might struggle against WVU's pressure defense. Also, don't expect the Mountaineers to shoot a woeful 26.9 percent in the paint like Valpo did Friday. That was the worst shooting percentage in the painted area, by any team, in a NCAA Tournament game in the last five years. With 13 victories by six points or less this season, Maryland is clearly the most vulnerable higher seeded team in this Tournament. I thought they'd lose their first game and will "double down" here. 10* West Virginia |
|||||||
03-22-15 | Wichita State +2 v. Kansas | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
10* Wichita State (5:15 ET): In case you couldn't tell already from this line, the expectation here for an upset is very real as this is a heavily anticipated game between in-state rivals that almost never play. It's the second "low line" based solely on seeding that Kansas has faced. Friday, they were just 10.5-point favorites over 15-seed New Mexico State and easily passed that test, winning 75-56. But this is going to be much tougher against a Wichita State team that I feel was dramatically underseeded. Obviously, the Big 12's reputation has already taken a hit in this Tournament, but I don't see this line as any kind of overreaction to that as the Shockers, a former Final Four participant, are a worthy adversary. I'll call for the upset here. Take the points. Wichita State did have some trouble w/ Indiana in their first tournament game, winning only 81-76 as 6.5-point chalk. But I certainly don't see Kansas shooting the ball as well from three-point range as IU did on Friday. The three-point shot is what kep the Hoosiers in the game as they went 11 of 22 from behind the arc while WSU was just 2 for 13. Fortunately for today, Kansas is not a team that makes, or even takes, many shots from distance. They average just six makes per game. Consider that the Shockers outscored Indiana 44-24 in the paint, and enjoyed a massive edge at the free throw line. Kansas has been atypically weak in the defensive rebounding department this season and that could haunt them here. I didn't have a play on Wichita State-Indiana, mainly because I prefer the Shockers in the underdog role. They've covered eight of their last ten as dogs, including the only time it happened previously this season. This is a team that's lost just four times all year, only once by more than six points. They have the edge in the backcourt in this matchup w/ Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker. The importance of this game to the Wichita State program cannot be understated as Kansas won't schedule them during the regular season. The Jayhawks have exited the tournament early before as a high seed, including last year. It happens again. 10* Wichita State |
|||||||
03-22-15 | New York Knicks v. Toronto Raptors -12.5 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
8* Toronto (4:05 ET): After winning B2B games for the first time since the All-Star Break, the Raptors lost what could have been a crucial game Friday in Chicago, 108-92, which temporarily dropped them below the Bulls in the Eastern Conference standings. But the Bulls lost yday, meaning Toronto is back in third place and I see them maintaining that position after today as they host the woeful Knicks. Though just 4-11 SU their last 15 overall, the straight up result here is not in question as far as I'm concerned, rather all we need to worry about is whether or not the home team can cover the spread. We know that they won't take this game lightly because of an outright loss to the Knicks back on February 28th. Look for the Raptors to exact revenge here w/ a blowout win. Ironically, New York has also gone 4-11 SU over its last 15 games. But the difference is that they had won only 10 games all season before that. They are off B2B losses to Minnesota and Philadelphia, who you could make a case are the 3rd and 2nd worst teams in the league, respectively. (Obviously, the Knicks are the worst). On the road this season, NY is being outscored by double digits. They hardly resemble a NBA roster these days w/ the likes of Lou Amundson, Lance Thomas, Alexey Shved and Langston Galloway in their starting lineup. The last two games have seen them score just 166 points in regulation. Somehow, the Knicks have managed to go 3-0 ATS vs. the division rival Raptors this year. In their only previous visit North of the border, they were taking an identical number and lost 118-108. With the Raptors possibly w/o PG Kyle Lowry again here, it may not seem like the most opportune time to lay double digits w/ Toronto, but I just feel the Knicks are so bad right now that you have to consider going against them almost every time out as they're simply playing out the string and have zero motivation to win at this point, considering that would only hurt their odds in the draft lottery. This should be a blowout for the home team. 8* Toronto |
|||||||
03-22-15 | Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 | Top | 75-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (3:05 ET): Normally, I am of the opinion that the Thunder have been mostly overvalued this season. This is a team that has been unable to shake New Orleans in the race for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, plus regardless of how good Russell Westbrook may be, not having Kevin Durant is a big deal. Durant has officially been shut down for the remainder of the season, but that does a funny thing to public perception as I now feel OKC is being a tad bit undervalued, at least for this matchup w/ Miami Sunday afternoon. When I've played against the Thunder in the past, it's usually been on the road, but here at home they're 25-9 SU w/ an average of 106.3 PPG scored. Miami has done an admirable job of getting itself back into playoff contention in the weaker East, but based on this line, they are the team that is being overvalued. If there was a game that you'd think Durant's absence was going to affect the Thunder, then that would have been Friday against Atlanta. But instead, they responded w/ an impressive 123-115 win and cover just hours after learning Durant wouldn't be back this season. Russell Westbrook delivered his ninth triple double in the L30 games and you do have to give the entire team credit for becoming just the fourth in NBA history to go from at least nine games under .500 to nine games over .500. Even more impressive is that they were able to beat the Hawks, who shot 58 percent in the first half. Miami is on a 3-0 SU/ATS run, beating Cleveland, Portland and Denver. But all three of those wins came at home. While they've been a subpar home team all year, they are below .500 on the road as well and this trip will be particularly tough as the Thunder are 18-2 SU at home since Christmas while averaging a whopping 114.1 PPG. Also interesting is that this is just the second three-game win streak of the year for the Heat. The first game when they started the year 3-0. Since the All-Star Break, Miami has played just five road games and won only two of them, those coming against the Knicks and Magic. Lay the points. 10* Oklahoma City. |
|||||||
03-22-15 | Michigan State v. Virginia -5 | Top | 60-54 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
8* Virginia (12:10 ET): All of a sudden, the East Region is now wide open w/ top seed Villanova bowing out yesterday. That would seem to make two-seed Virginia now the team to beat, but as I anticipated they are a popular choice to be upset Sunday as they face Tom Izzo and Michigan State. But what have I been saying this entire Tournament? Backing the trendy underdog, more often than not, is the wrong way to go. See UAB and Georgia State yday or teams like Stephen F Austin & Eastern Washington on Thursday. Or the litany of dogs that fell Friday. The ACC is perfect so far in this Tournament w/ three teams already in the Sweet 16. Virginia, a top five team most of the year, seems to be undervalued in this spot. Lay the points. The Cavaliers have lost only three games all year, all to conference foes, by a total of 12 points. They had a little trouble Friday vs. Belmont, but lost in the non-cover was the fact they scored 79 points, their most in regulation since December 30th. Defensively, it was not their finest effort, but at no point in the final 10 minutes did they allow the Bruins to score more than three consecutive points. They also kept them off the free throw line (just six attempts for Belmont). Remember this team led the nation in scoring defense during the year, giving up just 51.2 points per game. It's nice that they have Justin Anderson back as well. He scored 15 points Friday. An underrated storyline here is that UVA has legit revenge from LY's Sweet 16 where they lost to the Spartans as a top seed. I played against Sparty on Friday as they overcame a slow start to (barely) cover against Georgia. But I expect them to struggle against Virginia's size on the perimeter. Something else to note w/ MSU is that they are an absolutely dreadful free throw shooting team at 63.1 percent for the season. Against UGA, they were 11 for 19. If Virginia can establish its tempo like I think they will, then every possession becomes more critical and missed FT's will haunt the Spartans. I do not expect Michigan State to have the kind of success in transition here that they did vs. Georgia. 8* Virginia |
|||||||
03-21-15 | Arkansas v. North Carolina -4.5 | Top | 78-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* North Carolina (8:40 ET): Both of these teams ended up having a great degree of difficulty advancing past their second round opponents; Arkansas over Wofford and North Carolina over Harvard. However, the one difference was that UNC at least was in control for most of its game, leading the Crimson by as many as 16 in the second half before withstanding a furious rally. For the sake of comparison, Arkansas never led Wofford by more than five points and I thought the Hogs were pretty fortunate to win that game. The Tar Heels, second in the nation in both rebounding and assists, shot 55.1 percent Thursday and I simply think they're a much better team that Arkansas. They should win this game by a greater margin than what the linesmakers are calling for here. Only its rival Duke averages more points per game in the paint than North Carolina. That's among all teams in the nation, so it should not have been a surprise to see the Tar Heels outscore Harvard 36-22 in the paint Thursday. The problem was points off turnovers, as Harvard outscored them 29-6 in that department and tonight will obviously be a tougher challenge going against the Razorbacks' press. But I happen to think that UNC is one of those teams that are better than their record as there have been several games this year, the ACC Tournament Final, among them where the blew a late lead. I think what happened late in the game Thursday was a simple case of taking their foot off the gas pedal. They can't afford to do that here, and I don't think they will given the opponent. I played against Arkansas in their matchup w/ Wofford and was rewarded w/ the cover. As I said in my analysis for that matchup, the Razorbacks have no prior NCAA Tournament experience (the current roster, that is) and I think they're a little overvalued thanks to a run to the SEC Tournament Championship. They scored only 56 points against Wofford, not a good sign here when taking on a team that averages over 77 PPG. The Razorbacks were just 4-6 SU vs. NCAA Tournament teams coming into Thursday, and only one of those wins (Dayton at home) came against a team still standing. 10* North Carolina |
|||||||
03-21-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Houston Rockets -8.5 | Top | 117-102 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:05 ET): While Phoenix won for me two nights ago, at home vs. New Orleans, they did so in a 74-72 game as this team continues to have some major offensive issues in the wake of the Goran Dragic trade. Thursday made it four times in the last six games that the Suns failed to score even 88 pts. That's going to be a problem as they get set to visit Houston Saturday night considering the Rockets have won three straight, averaging nearly 108 PPG during that stretch, and have topped 100 in all but one of their last eight games. Further hurting Phoenix's cause here is the fact they allow 105.5 points per game. Lay the points here as Houston is a strong 7-1 ATS this season as a home fave of 6.5 to 9 pts. James Harden went for a career high 50 points in the Rockets' last game, a 118-108 win over the Denver Nuggets. Obviously, it's highly unlikely that the MVP candidate will approach that number again tonight, but considering he has 29 games w/ at least 30 pts this season and seven of 40+, suffice to say we shouldn't worry about any kind of dramatic drop-off. Note the team did lead by 17 going into the fourth quarter Thursday, before the Nuggets went on a big run w/ Harden on the bench. The key thing w/ Harden is that when he scores a lot, it's typically not a byproduct of making a lot of "lucky" shots. Rather, he gets to the free throw line w/ greater frequency than any other player in the league. He made 22 FT's vs. Denver. As a team, Phoenix has shot just 41.6 percent the last six games while averaging 88 PPG. That won't even come close to cutting it here. The Suns are 0-3 SU vs. the Rockets this year, and while two of the games were decided by five points or less, note that Houston had at least 60 points by halftime in every matchup. Both Brandon Knight and Alex Len are listed as doubtful for tonight, so an already thin Suns roster could be even thinner. I just think that they're a team whose playoff chances are on life support, and they know it. Rather than a strong finish, I look for them to fade down the stretch. 10* Houston |
|||||||
03-21-15 | Ohio State +9 v. Arizona | Top | 58-73 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (5:15 ET): This seems like a large number for Arizona to lay against a dangerous opponent. Granted, the second seeded Wildcats (actually my pick to win this region!), did roll in their first game, 93-72 over Texas Southern. But despite not covering the spread there, it seems as if the large margin of victory has directly influenced tonight's number and from where I sit if there's one game where 'Zona could slip up in this region, it's this one. Ohio State is a team that both Vegas and the advanced metrics tend to love, despite 10 losses. That's because only one of those 10 defeats came by double digits. Thus, it's somewhat surprising to see that the Buckeyes are just 1-5 ATS as dogs this year. But I look for that to change here and I'm taking the points. While Arizona rolled to victory Thursday, Ohio State needed overtime to prevail in a back and forth game over VCU, the Atlantic 10 Tournament champs. HC Thad Matta basically went w/ just six players, but while depth is a greater concern for the Buckeyes than it is for the Wildcats, look for Matta counteract that w/ a zone defense that worked well in the second half vs. VCU. The benefit of the zone is two-fold; (1) it slows the game down and (2) theoretically it should limit the amount of fouling by depth shy OSU. For the game, they held VCU to just 38.1 percent shooting. Offensively, freshman sensation D'Angelo Russell scored 28 pts, the third most ever by a freshman in a NCAA Tournament game. Russell was both great inside and outside, but overall the team dominated points in the paint (40-22), not a surprise since they led the Big 10 in points in the paint (33.6 per game) during the regular season. Look for them to exploit that advantage here. Arizona is a strong rebounding team due to the fact they will typically pack the paint on defense and allow the opposition to take three-pointers. Thus, this is somewhat of a strength on strength matchup w/ Ohio State ranking 10th in the country in field goal percentage (48.6). The Buckeyes were also 6 for 15 from three-point range Thursday. I think they'll make enough shots to at least stay within the number and I do give them a shot at the outright upset. 10* Ohio State |
|||||||
03-21-15 | UAB v. UCLA -5.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
8* UCLA (12:10 ET): Even as parity has become more rampant in the NCAA Tournament, 14 seeds rarely advance. So seeing two of them win Thursday, back-to-back, was pretty shocking. One was UAB, a team that had last won outside of Birmingham back on January 31st. The Blazers beat Iowa State and did so in pretty stunning fashion, grabbing 19 offensive rebounds and holding the Cyclones well below their season average in scoring. Those factors helped to alleviate the fact UAB shot only 34.8 percent from the field themselves, the worst number ever in a win by a 14 or 15 seed in the history of this tournament. What you need to understand is that this team is simply not very good; they don't rank inside the top 100 in either offensive or defensive efficiency. This is where their run ends. Lay the points. At least one 14-seed has now won in three consecutive tournaments, making it 20 all-time wins in the Big Dance from that line. But one win is usually all they get. Only two times has a 14-seed ever gone on to make the Sweet 16 and they are 0-4 SU all-time vs. 11 seeds w/ every win coming by at least 13 points. Last year saw Mercer get crushed by Tennessee in an identical spot, losing by 20. One could certainly make the case the UCLA did not deserve to make this tournament and that they were fortunate (goaltending call) to beat SMU. But the Bruins' run of good fortune continues here, drawing a 14-seed in the Round of 32, one that did not even win the regular season title in its own conference. In fact, UAB finished fifth in Conference USA. UCLA led the Pac 12 in rebounding (38 per game) thanks in large part to Kevin Looney's 9.2 per game, which ranked third nationally. On the outside, they have Bryce Alford (coach's son), who made 9 of 11 three-pointers against SMU. UCLA's overall resume can be called into question, but let's face it; they hail from a much tougher conference (Pac 12 now 4-0 in tournament) and yet are somehow still laying only a small number. UAB is the third youngest team in the entire country and they are easily the weakest team left standing in the field. Other than Arizona, UCLA's only two losses since the start of February were each by two points. They are 10-3 ATS L13 games overall. A favorable draw makes them an unlikely entrant to the Sweet 16 and they should win big here. 8* UCLA |
|||||||
03-20-15 | Boston Celtics v. San Antonio Spurs -9 | Top | 89-101 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): I actually have quite the amount of respect for the Celtics, who currently occupy the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and are only being outscored by less than one point per game. So you might be surprised to see me willing to lay this big of a number against them, especially w/ a Spurs team that lost to the Knicks earlier in the week. But note that San Antonio has not been beaten in regulation all month and they actually impressed me quite a bit in bouncing back w/ a 114-103 win Wednesday at Milwaukee. Finally healthy, I look for the defending champs to roll through the remainder of the regular season, including this game right here. Lay the points. At home, San Antonio is averaging an impressive 106.9 PPG. Though influenced by a pair of games that went to OT, they're average points per game over their last five contests is 115.8. But even going back 10 games, to the start of this 8-2 SU stretch, they've topped 100 in every game and 110 seven different times. So Greg Popovich's team does figure to "get theirs" tonight at home against a Celtics defense which allows 103.3 PPG on the road, one of the worst numbers in the entire league. The Spurs scored 66 pts in the second half against Milwaukee Weds night. The Celtics have covered six straight, but are off their first loss during that time as they were beaten 122-118 by Oklahoma City on Wednesday. That game did not go into overtime and in fact the Thunder had a double digit lead heading into the fourth quarter. The game wouldn't have ended up as close had it not been for OKC allowing 39 pts in the fourth quarter. Over the last three seasons, Boston is 0-5 SU vs. San Antonio and they were crushed earlier this year, at home, 111-89. The Spurs were 7.5-point road favorites in that one, so you can see a little value on them here at home against a Celtics team that's just 12-21 SU on the road. 10* San Antonio |
|||||||
03-20-15 | Oklahoma State +2 v. Oregon | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma State (6:50 ET): I handicapped this matchup the same way I did another 8-9 game (Cincinnati-Purdue) in that one side is receiving a lopsided amount of action (in this case Oregon), which makes no sense. Going against the public and taking Cincinnati worked out yday (was close!), so I'll follow suit here and take the dog. Oklahoma State is left to carry the mantle for a wounded Big 12, a conference whose rep took a serious hit Thursday, and don't think for a second that won't be motivating factor here for the Pokes. I suppose that people are looking at the Cowboys' finish to the regular season (now 1-6 SU/ATS L7), but having a "recency bias" can be a dangerous method for evaluating teams this time of year. Oregon had won seven in a row, but was also destroyed in its last game, 80-52 by Arizona. Look for the lower seed to surprise here. This is a game where the line has moved a couple points, creating a little bit of value on the other side. The public really took a bath in Thursday's games, meaning the sides that took the heaviest action either lost or failed to cover. Here, Oregon is drawing an unusually large amount of action. Again, I think that has a lot to do w/ the respective ways each team finished. Plus, the Big 12's performance yday probably isn't leading to any extra OSU support. But they are the better defensive team here, by a wide margin, as they hold opponents to just 62.3 points per game. Oregon allows 76.3 PPG away from Eugene and was torched by Arizona, who shot 54.5 percent, in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. Take note that the Ducks are 2-6 ATS following a loss by 20+ points. Meanwhile, I think Oklahoma State should bounce back from its disappointing performance in the Big 12 Tourney vs. Oklahoma as they are 6-1-1 ATS after scoring 50 pts or less the previous game. They also are the more experienced team here and should have the edge in rebounding. Not that this sounds as impressive as it would have 48 hours ago, but the Cowboys did sweep both Baylor and Texas in the regular season. They also hold a win over Kansas. This is also a revenge spot for the OSU coaching staff, who remembers being upset by Oregon in the Tournament (5-12 matchup) two years ago. 10* Oklahoma State |
|||||||
03-20-15 | Valparaiso +4.5 v. Maryland | Top | 62-65 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
8* Valparaiso (4:40 ET): I can't remember too many times that a 4-seed was favored by this little of a number, but Maryland is clearly overseeded and their 27-6 SU record a mirage. I went against them the last time we saw them, which was the Big 10 semis, a 62-58 loss to Michigan State. That loss could definitely be seen as a comeuppance given that during the regular season the Terps went a fortunate 8-0 SU in games decided by five points or less. So, that all being said, combined w/ the fact we're due to see a 4-seed lose, has me on the dog here as Valparaiso is no slouch. The Crusaders come into the Tournament at 28-5 SU and their only three losses in Horizon League play were by either three pts or less or in OT. Take the points. In six of last seven years, at least one 14-seed has advanced past the Round of 64. Looking at this year's crop, I'd say Valpo is certainly the most likely. They defend well (top 30 in defensive efficiency), holding teams to just 59.3 points per game and they can rebound. The most pts they've allowed in the L7 games is 63. As for the boards, there were only two games all season where the Crusaders were outrebounded. This is key in going against a Maryland team that ranks just 241st in the country, grabbing only 29.1 percent of available offensive rebounds. Opponents make just 42.1 percent of two-point attempts against Valpo, and given the pace they play at, more often than not, that's enough to get the job done. Both Tevonn Walker and Darien Walker are probable to play Friday. Maryland is just 6-11 ATS as a favorite this year, which shouldn't be a surprise given all the close wins. This is a guard-oriented team and this will be a rare instance where the underdog has the size advantage. The Terps really don't have a great post player. Valparaiso has a senior power forward in Alec Peters, who also hits 46 percent from three-point range, which could be key against a team that doesn't defend the three-point line well. This is Maryland's first NCAA Tournament appearance under HC Mark Turgeon and their first overall since 2010. Coming into the tourney, they were the high seed I felt most likely to be upset in the Round of 64. 8* Valparaiso |
|||||||
03-20-15 | Georgia +6 v. Michigan State | Top | 63-70 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* Georgia (12:40 ET): Tom Izzo' March reputation obviously precedes itself, but this year's edition of Michigan State basketball is not as strong, which is evident by the fact Sparty checks in as only a 7-seed. Somewhat predictably, they are drawing lopsided action for this matchup w/ 10-seed Georgia and I think there's now some solid value on the dog here. More often than not this year, the Spartans came out on the wrong end of close games and that's coming from someone who had them in the Big 10 semis over Maryland. They followed that win up w/ an excruciating overtime loss to Wisconsin, which as I said has been "par for the course" this year in East Lansing as the team has eight losses either in OT or by 5 pts or less. Georgia went 9-3 ATS taking points this year and is a live dog in this spot. Don't be too fooled by UGA's 60-49 loss in the SEC semifinal to Arkansas. With a NCAA Tournament berth locked up, they decided to rest second leading scorer Kenny Gaines (11.6 PPG). For the game, the team shot just 32.7 percent from the field, their second lowest percentage all season. And it wasn't like they were taking an abundance of jumpers. They were a ghastly 12 for 35 inside the paint, where they were actually outscored 16-3 in second chance pts despite having just one less rebound. The Bulldogs, who were 3rd best in the SEC from the FT line in the regular season, missed 10 of 23 attempts as well. Gaines is probable to return here, which would be a big lift on both ends of the floor. Georgia is in the top 20 nationally in field goal percentage defense at 38.7%. Something else that caught my eye in handicapping this game is that Georgia set a school record w/ six "true" road wins in SEC play. They went 2-0 ATS vs. Kentucky. So they will not be intimidated in the least here. All five starters average double figures in scoring. Defensively, they do a good job keeping teams out of the paint w/ an aggressive man to man. These teams are a lot more even then they're being perceived by the public, so taking the points is the way to go. 10* Georgia. |
|||||||
03-19-15 | Eastern Washington v. Georgetown -7.5 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
8* Georgetown (9:57 ET): Again, I'll be going against the trendy underdog pick here, as not only is the public all over 13-seed Eastern Washington here plus the points, but an astounding 86% of all ML wagers are also on the underdog Eagles. I'll concede the Georgetown does not have a sterling NCAA track record under John Thompson III, but what the public is clearly missing here is that EWU is a horrible team defensively, the second worst in the entire field in fact (only Lafayette is worse)! They rank 282nd nationally in terms of defensive efficiency, which is a far cry from the Hoyas' #25 ranking in that same department. The fact that the Eagles HC Jim Hayford went on a national radio show and guaranteed a victory does his team no favors in my opinion. Georgetown should be highly motivated to erase the ghosts of tournaments past. I get that Thompson's G'town teams are 1-4 SU in the NCAA Tournament w/ three double digit losses to teams seeded 10 or lower. I expect the Hoyas to use their size to their advantage here and exploit a EWU defense which gives up a ghastly 73.6 PPG (342nd nationally) on 44.9 percent shooting. Away from home, both numbers predictably go up. Going up against a three-guard lineup, the Hoyas should be able to score plenty of points in the paint here. Only four of this team's losses came by more than six points all year. You will not find a bigger strength of schedule differential in this tournament as Georgetown played the 5th toughest schedule nationally while Eastern Washington played the 252nd toughest schedule. Eastern Washington does have the nation's leading scorer in Tyler Harvey (22.9 PPG) and an ability to make a lot of three pointers. But I keep coming back to the defensive ineptitude, which is pretty striking. I'd like to see Georgetown take advantage of the fact that EWU allows its opponents to shoot 39 percent from behind the arc. Thirteen times this season the Eagles allowed 80 or more points. They also have not played a tournament team since November. This is reminiscent of the Utah-Stephen F Austin matchup. 8* Georgetown |
|||||||
03-19-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Phoenix Suns -1 | Top | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): For the Suns, this game probably represents a last gasp to get back into playoff contention as they are currently three games back of Oklahoma City for the eighth and final spot in the West. New Orleans, who has also been on the playoff fringes all season long, is just one-half game back of the Thunder. But while the Pelicans have clearly been the better team in the second half, this situation favors Phoenix, who has been off since Sunday and is at home. New Orleans has a losing road record on the season (14-18 SU) and is still w/o both Jrue Holliday and Ryan Anderson. Meanwhile, the time off has allowed Phoenix to get healthier as both Alex Len and Brandon Knight could be making returns here. The Suns are off a 102-89 win over the Knicks that was actually a lot closer than the final score indicates. But the bottom line is that they are 10-2 ATS this season when coming off a double digit win. Offense has been real feast or famine this month for the 4th highest scoring team in the league; four times they've been above 100 pts, three others they've been below 90. Here at home, Phoenix averages over 105 points per game. The Pelicans are off an 85-84 win over Milwaukee, at home, Tuesday night. They may get caught peeking ahead to Golden State tomorrow night. They've failed to cover in two straight and five of their last eight. Against the Bucks, they were held to 15 points or less in two of the four quarters, including just 10 in the second quarter! As a team, New Orleans shot just 34.9 percent from the field and right now there is an undue burden being placed on Anthony Davis. 10* Phoenix |
|||||||
03-19-15 | Wofford +7.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
10* Wofford (9:50 ET): Now here's a 5-12 matchup where it seems the possibility of an upset isn't getting as much love as one might think it should. This isn't so much a 'play on' Wofford, but rather a 'play against' Arkansas, who I happen to think is the weakest of the 5-seeds in the field of 68. The Hogs are probably feeling pretty full of themselves right now after a run to the SEC Tourney Final where they were ousted by Kentucky and that could work against them here. Wofford, who allows fewer points per game while shooting it better from three-point range (a great combo of edges to own in the NCAA Tournament!), lost only six times this season (two of those at Duke and at WVU) and just once since Jan 15th (won 15 of 16). Take the points and I think the outright upset is a distinct possibility. I think Wofford actually matches up very well here. Arkansas doesn't do a particularly great job at defending the three-point line and the Terriers make 37.6 percent of their attempts from behind the arc. Also, Wofford should be fresh. The SoCon Tournament was one of the first to conclude w/ the top seeded Terriers qualifying ten days ago. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks just played three games in three days, all after Wofford qualified. The key to Arkansas' game is their press, as they like to speed the game up, but the problem is Wofford takes good care of the basketball w/ just 11 TO's per game. The Terriers have a number of good ball handlers that should be able to deal w/ the Hogs' press. Wofford only gives up 59.8 PPG. I realize that they did not play a very tough schedule during the regular season, but they did win @ NC State, holding the Wolfpack to only 54 points. They also beat Iona, regular season champs in the MAAC, by double digits. That's significant because it was a common opponent between them and Arkansas. The Razorbacks have failed to cover four in a row when favored by more than seven points, including an outright loss to LSU in the regular season finale. This will be their first NCAA Tournament appearance since '08, so they are lacking in experience as well. 10* Wofford |
|||||||
03-19-15 | Stephen Austin v. Utah -6.5 | Top | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
8* Utah (7:27 ET): This has become a very trendy upset pick by virtue of being a 5-12 matchup, but the problem for upstart Stephen F. Austin (who I certainly respect) is that they are drawing the top 5 seed of the bunch. In fact, one could make the argument that this is the best 5-seed vs. the best 12-seed. But while the Lumberjacks, winners LY as a 12-seed, were probably seeded properly, Utah was drastically underseeded, IMO. This Utes team may have played just .500 ball over its L8 games, but still owns an outstanding YTD point differential (+15.2 PPG) thanks to a string of blowout victories. This is a large step up in class for SFA, champions of the Southland, who rank outside of the top 100 nationally in terms of defensive efficiency. For the sake of comparison, Utah is one of just six teams in the country to rank in the top 20 in both offensive & defensive efficiency. Lay the points. Public underdogs are usually the only underdogs I'm not fond of taking. The NCAA Tournament has the unique distinction of being the one event where the typically favorite backing public is willing to take the points. This is because everyone fills out a bracket and if you're inclined to pick a dog to win SU, you're likely to bet them ATS. But when the percentages get this lopsided (as they are here in favor of SFA), I get leery. Consider that the Lumberjacks have not played a NCAA Tournament team since a three-game stretch back in November, all of those resulting in losses. While they played Northern Iowa tough (game went to OT), they were beaten by double digits by both Xavier and Baylor. The committee did SFA no favors here w/ a bad matchup. The Lumberjacks live off forcing turnovers, but w/ senior PG Delon Wright running the point, Utah doesn't give the ball away much. SFA also shoots (and makes) a lot of three-pointers, but the problem there is the Utes allow just 28.3 percent shooting from behind the arc. Perhaps the big key here though is Utah's size advantage. SFA doesn't have a player in its starting lineup over 6'6", which is going to be a problem here. Utah played a much tougher schedule, is 33-17 ATS its L50 as a favorite and 20-7 ATS vs. non-conference teams. 8* Utah |
|||||||
03-19-15 | Purdue v. Cincinnati +1.5 | Top | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): For an 8-9 matchup, the betting percentages (currently heavily in favor of Purdue) sure seem awfully one-sided. I'm not exactly sure why the public is so heavily leaning towards the lower seed here, but I'll take advantage as Cincinnati's Top 20 defense (55.3 PPG allowed) should have them advance. Stylistically, these teams are pretty similar. Their respective seasons also played out in like fashion. Purdue is a team that lost early on to the likes of North Florida, Vanderbilt & Gardner Webb. Cincinnati lost its head coach, but didn't skip a beat. With more traits (defense, rebounding) of teams that typically advance in this event, the Bearcats are the play here. Perhaps it's Purdue's 20-9 ATS record that has so many flocking to their bandwagon? At one point, during the heart of the Big 10 schedule, they at one point covered seven consecutive games. Maybe its the fact they're from the stronger conference that has bettors on them as well? But the Boilermakers didn't exactly finish the year strong. They've lost three of their last five games, both wins coming by only five points, and they got hammered by Wisconsin in the Conference Tourney, losing by 20. They made only six field goals in the second half in that loss and could run into similar issues here against a stout Cincy defense. All season long, the Boilermakers beat just two Tournament teams outside of West Lafayette. Both teams rebound the ball well, so this game could simply come down to "who makes shots." I have less faith in Purdue to do that. This is because Cincinnati is 18th nationally in terms of defensive efficiency, holding teams to just 92.9 points per 100 possessions. Purdue is just 70th in that department. The key difference between the teams defensively lies in the Bearcats' ability to not foul as much. The Boilermakers tend to send their opponents to the free throw line a lot. Getting back to the ability to make shots, Cincinnati is at 45.3% for the year, which is actually the best single season percentage of the Mick Cronin era. The slow pace at which they play will frustrate Purdue. Cincy's last three losses were by a total of six points and before bowing out to a hot UConn team in the American Tourney they had won and covered five straight. 10* Cincinnati. |
|||||||
03-19-15 | Northeastern +12.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
8* Northeastern (12:15 ET): Based off their winning the ACC Tournament, Notre Dame is getting a LOT of love right now across the country. Throw in the fact that the Fighting Irish are a public team to begin with, and you have the classic "overvalued spot" as the 3-seed opens Thursday tourney play w/ a matchup against Northeastern, champions of the CAA. The Colonial is no longer what it once was, in the wake of VCU and George Mason bolting for greener pastures, but these Huskies are a dangerous DD dog considering the way they shoot the ball from all ranges. Let us not forget that Notre Dame isn't exactly a strong defensive team either; they rank a pretty woeful 112th nationally in terms of defensive efficiency. Therefore, I'll be taking the points here in what will be the Tournament's first legit upset scare. Northeastern shoots 52.9 percent from 2-point range, 38.8 percent from 3-point range and 72.4 percent as a team from the FT line. I like those numbers, especially when matched up w/ a team coming off a long tourney run that also gave up 107 pts per 100 possessions in conference play. For the sake of comparison, N'eastern won its conference tournament a full five days prior to Notre Dame winning theirs. Now, the Huskies obviously didn't learn who they'd be playing until Sunday, but still, theoretically they should be the fresher team here. This is a team that was not blown out much all year. Only three times did they lose a game by double digits and two of those were very early in the season. The other was actually a game that went to overtime! They come in w/ a 6-4 ATS record as underdogs, winning five times straight up. Notre Dame is formidable offensively. But teams that have the drastic offensive-defensive splits they do tend not to be long for this tournament. Remember that the Fighting Irish lost at home to Syracuse last month. They also lost to Duke - by 30 - giving up 90 points. Part of the cause for the bad defensive numbers is that the Irish don't rebound well nor do they force many turnovers. N'eastern has five players that can shoot and while Florida State was one of the worst teams in the ACC, the Huskies did beat them, so they won't be intimidated for this Round of 64 matchup. Take the points. 8* Northeastern. |
|||||||
03-18-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls -1.5 | Top | 86-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): Predictably, Indiana has come back down to Earth as following a seven-game win streak, they've dropped B2B games. They were favored in both, at home, losing to Boston and Toronto. Tonight, they visit a Central Division rival that's also coming off B2B losses, and one that will be playing w/ revenge. Chicago has lost five of six overall, starting with a setback at the hands of the Pacers (on the road) back on March 6th. After a bad loss in Charlotte on Friday, the Bulls came up just short in a game effort Sunday at Oklahoma City. Having had the last two days off, I expect a major response from a team still looking for a top two seed in the Eastern Conference. Lay the short number. The last time these teams played, it was a tough spot for the Bulls. They had just knocked off the Thunder, short-handed as they remain now, the night before in a national TV game. Indiana was rested and playing its fourth consecutive home game. Chicago shot just 36 percent for the game, losing 98-84 as 5.5-point dogs, but clearly we should expect better tonight as they average 101.9 PPG here at the United Center this season. This will only be Indiana's second road game since Feb 24th, which somewhat explains the recent roll that they've been on. The one road game that they did play during the seven-game win streak was against the lowly Knicks. In fact, this will also be the first time since 2.24 that the Pacers have been an underdog. They're still only 12-20 SU away from home this year, and are 9-24 SU as dogs, in any setting. Monday night vs. Toronto, they allowed 117 points to the Raptors, and were dominated on the boards. It obviously did not help that they also missed 17 of 19 three-point attempts. Remember that this is still one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. They did a nice job of getting themselves back into playoff contention, but right now I feel they're overvalued. 10* Chicago |
|||||||
03-18-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11.5 | Top | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): After a pretty embarrassing effort in Monday's 106-92 loss at Miami (was 2nd game of back to backs), the Cavs should bounce back here as they finally are back home and facing a substantially inferior opponent. They have not lost at Quicken Loans Arena in some time now (January 6th, to be exact), winning 13 in a row on their home floor and done so in pretty convincing fashion. They've outscored visiting teams by 15.7 PPG during the streak and while Tuesday was bad, this team has won 12 of 15 overall (most of those games on the road) and has been the NBA's best team since January 15th. Meanwhile, I put little stock into Brooklyn's B2B victories as they came at the expense of Philadelphia and Minnesota. These teams have not played since December, back before Cleveland took off. Still though, the Cavs have won both prior meetings, one in convincing fashion at Brooklyn and the other was a closer result here at home. But as described above, the Cavs have clearly regained their "home mojo" and it's looking like Kevin Love will be back on the floor tonight. Though he's somewhat struggled in playing the "Chris Bosh role," Love is still averaging 16.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. Though his numbers had tailed off recently, his return will be welcomed by an offense that topped 120 pts in three straight games prior to Tuesday's loss. Meanwhile, Brooklyn averages only 96.6 PPG and is due for some regression after matching a season-high w/ 122 pts Monday. They shot 57.8% from the field against Minnesota, something I can't see being duplicated here & off a DD win, the team is just 3-7 ATS this season. I have continued to rate the Nets among the bottom eight teams in the league all season long and don't see that changing moving forward as they should be resigned to a non-playoff fate by now while Cleveland is trying to lock down the #2 seed in the Conference. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
03-18-15 | Robert Morris v. North Florida -2.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
10* North Florida (6:40 ET): Both NCAA Tournament underdogs won their games outright yday, meaning we're likely to see a response from the chalk today. In Tuesday's 16 vs. 16 seed matchup, the spread was too high for a matchup of this importance, but that's not the case for today's version and the difference between the two teams may in fact be greater! Robert Morris finished second in NEC during the regular season and had to pull off an upset of the top seed (St. Francis NY) in the tournament final (a "true" road game, by the way) just to get here. Meanwhile, North Florida was the best team all year in a watered down Atlantic Sun and proved it w/ a win and cover in a double revenge spot vs. USC Upstate in the Tourney Final. Here, they are laying just a small number and I like them to advance fairly easily. The last two years have seen the A-Sun make a strong accounting for itself, first w/ Florida Gulf Coast, then w/ Mercer last year. North Florida isn't as strong as either of those two teams, but the Ospreys do sport a winning record away from home and average 75.7 PPG. This is a team that shoots the ball well, at 46.9% overall including 39.1% from three-point range w/ seven players shooting at least 35 percent from behind the arc. They've also lost only twice since January 2nd, both times to USC Upstate. They've won eight straight, seven times by double digits, and hold a road win over Purdue. UNF tested itself early w/ 14 of its first 17 games being contested off-campus. I thought they deserved to be guaranteed a spot in the Round of 64, quite honestly. The Northeast Conference does not have a strong history in the NCAA Tournament and that includes a loss by LY's champ Mt. St. Mary's in the "First Four." The Colonials, who do not do a particularly good job rebounding, suffered 14 losses against a schedule that did not rank among the 200 most difficult in the country. So that's not a good sign. They have won six in a row, but only the Tournament Final was contested in foreign territory. Look for three-point shooting to be the difference maker in this one as a RMU squad that has been "playing above itself" for awhile, comes back down to Earth. 10* North Florida |
|||||||
03-17-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Los Angeles Clippers -10 | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Charlotte put forth a truly shameful effort last night for a team in playoff contention, losing at Utah by a score of 94-66. Incredibly, it was the second time in the past four games that the Hornets failed to top 70 points. They actually trailed by as many as 39. Things will get no easier here as they draw an angry Clippers team that's still smarting from a home loss (to Houston) on national TV Sunday afternoon. As you know, Blake Griffin is now back for the Clips and while that didn't make a difference in the last game, it should here against a far lesser opponent. LA is already outscoring teams by roughly nine points per game here at home this season, so laying a big number is not a concern. Something that surprises me is that the Clippers have failed to break 100 pts in five of the past six games. In a sense, that's somewhat misleading as they've scored 98 or 99 three times. But still this is a team that comes in averaging 106 per game. Charlotte, meanwhile, finds itself at the opposite end of the spectrum, averaging just 94.7. So, I just don't see them having the "horses" to compete. Especially with the defense having allowed the previous two opponents to make over 30 three-pointers on better than 53 percent shooting from behind the arc. Last night could have been even uglier had the Jazz, who made 14 three-pointers through three quarters, not basically taken mercy in the final 12 minutes. The Clippers destroyed Charlotte earlier in the year, on the road, by a score of 113-92. They shot well (51.1%) from the field while the Hornets were a horrific 2 for 20 from three-point range. Given the recent numbers on both ends of the floor for Charlotte, a similar final here would not surprise me in the least. I think that in terms of won-loss record, LA has been one of the more underachieving teams as they still have a top three point differential in the league, and that's a better predictor of future success more so than a simple WL record. 8* LA Clippers |
|||||||
03-17-15 | Ole Miss v. BYU -4 | Top | 94-90 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
10* BYU (9:10 ET): BYU has started to garner some real support as a potential "darkhorse" that can pull some upsets in this year's Tournament. But first they must take care of business in this "First Four" matchup w/ Ole Miss. Given how the respective teams come into the "Big Dance," I think a Cougars' win and cover is a reasonable expectation here. Before losing in the WCC Tournament Final (to Gonzaga), the Cougars had won eight straight games, the most important of which was a home victory over the Zags in the regular season finale. Meanwhile, Ole Miss was "one and done" in the SEC Tournament and ended up losing five of its final eight games, while going 2-6 ATS. I think we'll see BYU prove here that they were probably not deserving of a "play-in game" status. Lay the short number. Led by the school's all-time leading scorer (Tyler Haws), Brigham Young is #2 in the country in points per game w/ 83.6. The fast pace at which they play is going to be a difficult matchup for a defensively challenged Rebels squad. In its regular season finale, at home, Ole Miss gave up 86 points to Vanderbilt - an ominous sign here to say the least. Also, don't forget about Kyle Collinsworth, who turned in SIX triple doubles during the regular season (led the nation). His absence really hurt the team in LY's brief NCAA Tournament appearance, so I look for him to be a big difference-maker tonight. Down the stretch, BYU's defense did improve as they allowed more than 70 pts just one time during the eight-game win streak. Over the course of its last eight games, Ole Miss lost outright four separate times as a favorite, which is not a good sign. The one real strength this team has comes at the free throw line, but is somewhat negated by the fact they also send their opponents to charity stripe a bunch. While no team came closer to beating Kentucky during the regular season, the Rebels also lost outright to Charleston Southern in the season opener. Having lost four of their last five, it's easy to see why so many are siding w/ the trendy BYU pick here and I cannot disagree given the fact Ole Miss has shot just 38.5% those L5 games. 10* BYU |
|||||||
03-17-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Detroit Pistons +4 | Top | 95-105 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons have basically played their way out of playoff contention w/ 10 straight losses, however, most of them have been relatively close. Therefore, I actually think they're a pretty solid value as a home dog tonight hosting a Memphis team that comes in w/o rest after winning at home against Denver last night. The Grizzlies, who failed to cover as large favorites yesterday, have been struggling themselves as of late, going just .500 over the L12 games. They're 3-9 ATS during that stretch as well, so laying points on the road is not ideal for them right now. I'll concede that right now they have a lot more to play for than Detroit, but I'd say the Pistons are also "overdue" for a win. Take the points. Only two of the losses during the Pistons' current streak have been by ten or more points. So they've generally been competitive in defeat. A four-game swing out West ended w/ a three-point loss to the Jazz on Saturday. While they've struggled to score basically all season, this is a team that's only being outscored by two points per game. When taking on winning teams, the Pistons have actually fended quite well for themselves, going 8-4 ATS L12. With the two days off, it looks like Andre Drummond (concussion) will be back in the lineup. This will only be the Pistons' second home game this month, so I do expect somewhat of an inspired effort as obviously no team wants to go on losing every time out. They do play at Philadelphia tomorrow night, but I think that the Grizzlies are more likely to have their attention. Memphis has failed to score more than 100 pts six times in its last seven games, so again, this is not an ideal candidate for the road favorite role. They are off B2B wins, but both were at home. They lost three of four on their last road trip as turnovers have started to become a concern as well. Last night, they gave the ball away 20 times and are averaging 19.8 TO's per game their last four, mainly due to the absence of PG Mike Conley, who may very well miss this game as well. The Grizzlies caught a break last night when Kenneth Faried didn't suit up for Denver; they're also just 9-20 ATS vs. teams w/ a losing record (3-9 ATS L12). 10* Detroit. |
|||||||
03-17-15 | Iona v. Rhode Island -7 | Top | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
8* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): In last year's NIT, only one team seeded 3rd or higher lost its opening round game. That would be St. John's, who was actually a 1-seed, to Robert Morris. You have to remember that until their own version of the "Final Four," all NIT games are played at campus sites. That's a huge advantage here for Rhode Island, who went 13-2 SU here at home during the regular season. The two losses came by a combined six points and were to VCU and Davidson, the top two teams in the A-10. The opponent here is Iona, regular season champs of the MAAC, who I feel are going to have a hard time getting over the disappointment of losing in their conference tournament final. Lay the points. Another key edge for Rhode Island in this matchup lies on the defensive end of the floor. According to the KenPom ratings, the Rams are one of the ten most efficient teams in the entire country defensively. Meanwhile, Iona is a ghastly 233rd. Teams have scored an average of just 59.3 points per game against Rhode Island this season, barely shooting over 40 percent. The Rams also held the opposition to just 29% three-point shooting. Iona, meanwhile, gives up 72.8 PPG on the season. They allowed 70+ in every MAAC Tournament game. But there undoing against Manhattan last week was poor three-point shooting (5 for 22). The Gaels are a team that lives and dies w/ its shooting from behind the arc. Conference tournament failure aside for a moment, Iona was also a weak finisher against the pointspread down the home stretch. They enter the NIT having gone just 1-6 against the spread their last seven games and though their record is impressive, it wasn't like they completely dominated the MAAC during the regular season as over half their wins came by four points or less or in OT. Granted, they weren't blown out often either, but they did lose by double digits at both Wofford and Arkansas, the only two NCAA Tournament foes they played during the non-conference portion of the schedule. The home team should win big here. 8* Rhode Island |
|||||||
03-16-15 | Charlotte Hornets +5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 66-94 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (9:05 ET): Although most are probably unaware, Utah has been a pretty good team for some time now. It goes well beyond this current 8-1 SU run of theirs during which they have held opponents to an impressive average of just 83.9 points per game as they are 12-3 SU L15 and actually a .500 ball club since the start of December. But all that being said, they're still seven games under .500 for the season and not going to make the playoffs. Despite the recent success, I still wouldn't be comfortable laying points w/ this team, especially considering they've failed to cover their last three times in that role. The most recent was Saturday vs. Detroit when they won by just three, laying eight. Take the points here. Charlotte, despite having an inferior record to Utah, is still very alive in the postseason chase in the weaker Eastern Conference. Thanks to a 101-91 home victory over Chicago Friday, they are now in eighth place by themselves, one-half game ahead of both Miami and Boston. Thus, one could easily make the argument that this game carries far greater significance to the Hornets. Defense was the calling card for this team in LY's run to the playoffs and while this year's numbers have not been as strong overall, they did just hold the Bulls to only 31 pts in the second half Friday on 25.6% shooting. They also dominated on the glass w/ a 55-36 rebounding edge. Though it was a long time ago at this point, Charlotte did dominate the season's first matchup vs. Utah, winning 104-86 as 3.5-point home favorites. While 2-9 SU on the road against the West, they've largely been competitive in these non-conference affairs, only getting outscored by an average of 4.2 PPG. I think that the Jazz have been playing a little "above themselves" recently and are due to regress a bit. Also, their last three wins when favored have come by an average of less than five points per game. 8* Charlotte |
|||||||
03-16-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks -4 | Top | 115-119 | Push | 0 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): It seems as if almost every matchup of Western Conference teams carries some importance these days & this one is no different as the 7th and 8th place teams meet tonight in Dallas. For all of its exploits, Oklahoma City actually just moved back into the eighth position thanks to Sunday's results, which saw them win (at home over Chicago) and New Orleans lose (in 2OT's) to Denver. The win over the Bulls was closer than the 109-100 final indicates as the Thunder did not pull away until late, enabling them to get the cover. Dallas, who is off a 30-point win Friday night here at home against the Clippers (that I was on!), finally has some confidence back and I like them laying a small number at home. Saying the Mavs are in 7th in the West is actually a bit misleading because they are actually in a three-way tie for 5th (w/ San Antonio and the Clippers). Things were not going well for them at all prior to Friday, including getting handed their worst home loss of the season last Tuesday by Cleveland. But as I predicted, they bounced back Friday and did so w/ perhaps their finest effort in many weeks. The offense scored at least 32 pts in each of the final three quarters and broke open what had been a relatively close game up until that point. HC Rick Carlisle was "obviously" channeling his "inner handicapper" when he noted that his team was "due to play better." Here at home, the Mavs are still to respected; they are 22-11 SU here while averaging an impressive 106.5 PPG. Meanwhile, I've made the case before that Oklahoma City is not yet worthy trusted on the road. Look no further than their 14-20 SU record away from home. Their only road win dating back to the final week of February came at the expense of the woeful Lakers. Overall, they've lost 7 of 11 road games thanks to giving up an average of 104.1 PPG in them. Russell Westbrook's numbers remain very impressive, but how long can he carry the entire team? I don't think that one player taking such a high percentage of his team's shots is a sustainable practice. Serge Ibaka remains doubtful for tonight's game, which further tests the team's already limited depth. 10* Dallas |
|||||||
03-16-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards -2 | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): At first glance, this number would seem to be pretty accurate and/or generous if you're a Portland fan. After all, your team just won in Toronto yday, comfortably so, and is now basically getting an identical number of points for a lesser matchup w/ a slightly lesser team from the East. But despite the fact I now have the Blazers tied for 3rd (w/ the Clippers) in my own personal power rankings, I don't think tonight's matchup in D.C. is as simple as I laid out at the open of this analysis. After a pretty generally crappy February, the Wizards seem to have things heading back in the right direction w/ three consecutive wins and covers, including one that I was on Saturday night against Sacramento. I'll lay the small number here as Washington takes advantage of an unrested foe. After losing its first game w/o Wes Matthews (to Minnesota of all opponents), the Blazers have also now won three straight. That loss to the T'wolves also represents their only defeat over the L9 games as well. They outscored Toronto in all four quarters yday en route to a 16-point road win. Nicholas Batum called yday "one of the best games of the year" for his team, but unfortunately for them, their record as a road dog of three pts or less is still only 2-4 ATS. Playing the second of back to backs is always tough, especially when you are leaving one country for another. Somehow, Portland has managed to see its scoring average go UP a full 10 points per game in the three games w/o Matthews compared to the 60 w/ him. That's unsustainable from where I sit. Washington actually trailed Sacramento by 21 pts (in the 3Q) before a furious second half rally ended up producing a a 16-point victory. That's a pretty ridiculous turnaround for one half of basketball, but I'll note that other recent wins over Charlotte and Memphis were far more comfortable. Here at home, the Wiz have been really good all year, going 24-10 SU and in the games in which they are favored, they've gone 21-6 SU. Owning edges with home court and rest, I'll call for Washington to win and cover for a fourth straight time. 8* Washington |
|||||||
03-15-15 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 | Top | 100-98 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (3:30 ET): The way things stand now, this would be a first round series in the Western Conference in the 4-5 spot. Houston would currently have the homecourt advantage, but the Clippers can pull within one-half game of them w/ a win today. Both teams here enter in off bad losses. The Rockets were beaten 109-91 in Utah Thursday night, their second loss in a row after being beaten by Portland the previous night (I was on the Blazers there!). I've also been on the right side of the last two Clippers' game, first taking them in their "upset" of Oklahoma City Thursday night, then going against them the following night when they visited Dallas and lost by 30. I have LA rated as the better team and considering they have revenge for a five-point loss in Houston three weeks ago, I'll lay the relatively short number. There's really no sugarcoating what happened to the Clips Friday night in Dallas, so I won't even attempt to. While the Rockets have lost four of six after initially going 11-4 w/o Dwight Howard, Los Angeles is now 9-6 SU w/o the services of Blake Griffin. It did appear that they missed him Friday night. But now he could be playing this afternoon, which would be a big boost for the home team. If Griffin doesn't play, it's not too big of a concern considering his team led the Rockets going into the fourth quarter, on the road, in the last matchup. This will be the Rockets' fourth straight road game. On the road, they are allowing an average of 104 PPG this year, roughly eight points per game higher than what they allow at home. Each opponent thus far on the road trip has hit 100 against them, and so too should the Clippers, who come in as one of the league's highest scoring teams at 106.1 PPG. For Houston, James Harden has gone B2B games w/o scoring at least 20 pts. This is just a huge game for the home team, who can take the season series and thus gain the inside track for home court advantage. 8* LA Clippers |
|||||||
03-15-15 | Connecticut v. SMU -2.5 | Top | 54-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
10* SMU (3:15 ET): Perhaps it shouldn't come as too big a shock to see the 6-seed UConn playing today in the American Tournament Final. They were 4-1 SU during the regular season at the XL Center in Hartford (where this tournament is being played), and that includes a recent victory over today's opponent, SMU, 81-73 as 2-point dogs. They had been destroyed by the Mustangs earlier in the season (lost by 18), so that makes today the rubber match. Despite UConn basically having a home court edge in this one, it's tough not to like the better team laying a short number. Lay the points. Obviously, this is an all-too-familiar script here from UConn as the Huskies were a 7-seed when they cut down the nets after LY's NCAA Tournament. The defending National Champs have to win here to have a shot at defending their title, a fact that has helped to drive this line down lower than it should be. But this is not the same team as last year either. Let's keep in mind that the last two days have seen the Hukies win by just five and three while scoring a total of only 104 pts. They did hold Tulsa to only 19 points in the second half yday and 29.6% shooting for the game. But let's not forget that Tulsa was also one of the weaker 2-seeds in any conference tournament in recent memory. It is unlikely that they will even make the Big Dance. Yesterday was also UConn's eighth win this season where they trailed at halftime. SMU really had no issues with either East Carolina or Temple on their way to this tourney final. They too turned in a strong effort on the defensive end of the floor yday, holding Temple to just 29.3% from the floor, including 4 of 24 on three-pointers. Of course, we've been accustomed to seeing that kind of effort all season from the Mustangs as they're holding teams under 60 PPG. The most they allowed in any game this season was the 81 to UConn back on the 1st of the month, which also happens to be UConn's ONLY win over ranked opponent this year. 10* SMU |