Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-22-20 | Nets -3 v. Hornets | Top | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): The Nets’ future prospects for the remainder of this season were dealt a severe blow earlier this week when it was announced Kyrie Irving won’t be returning from shoulder surgery. The Nets are currently in 7th place in the Eastern Conference and should still make the playoffs despite the fact their two big free agent acquisitions (Irving and Kevin Durant) played a total of 20 games this year (0 for Durant). The fortunate thing for Brooklyn is that there’s a pretty large gap between them and 9th place (currently 5 games). Charlotte is one of the teams hoping to benefit from the Nets now being short-handed. Thursday saw the Hornets win for a third straight time (all as road underdogs) as they beat Chicago 103-93. But they are still 6.5 games back of the Nets and 4.5 games back of 8th place Orlando. While it was impressive that the Hornets won in Chicago, even with leading scorer Devonte Graham being held scoreless, make no mistake about it -- this is one of the worst teams in the entire league according to point differential. The Hornets -7.0 PPG differential is currently tied for 4th worst. The Nets did lose Thursday in Philadelphia, but that’s a tough place to play. The Sixers have the league’s best home record. They pushed as eight-point dogs, but are still 7-1-1 ATS their L9 games. Remember that w/o Irving they snapped Toronto’s 15-game win streak right before the All-Star Break. The remaining cast for the Nets is better than you think and the Hornets are only 8-16 SU at home. 10* Brooklyn |
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02-22-20 | Michigan v. Purdue -3 | Top | 71-63 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
10* Purdue (2:00 ET): Purdue has been one of the most confounding teams in the entire country this season. Thought by many (including me!) to be among the top 25 teams in the entire country, the Boilermakers have suffered 13 defeats and are now in serious danger of failing to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. At 14-13 SU overall, winning out between now and the Big 10 Tournament may be a necessity, especially in light of three straight losses. It’s obviously a “must win” today vs. Michigan. The Wolverines went from unranked at the start of the season to as high as #4 in the polls. Clearly, they were underestimated with an unproven HC (Juwan Howard), but it was laughable to me that they were ever considered the 4th best team in the country. They got that high on the strength of an impressive early season showing in the Bahamas. While beating Gonzaga still looks impressive, the win over UNC (who was #6 at the time - HA!) definitely isn’t. The Wolverines just handed Rutgers its first home loss of the season, 60-52 on Wednesday. They were 3.5-pt dogs in that game and it was their fourth consecutive win - SU and ATS. Two of those four wins have been as underdogs, but I don’t see them pulling the trick in B2B games as Purdue is about as desperate as it gets here. The Boilermakers are still 10-3 SU when playing at home and 12-4 SU as a favorite. We’re getting a great discounted price on them today. Trust me. 10* Purdue |
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02-22-20 | Virginia v. Pittsburgh +3.5 | Top | 59-56 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (12:00 ET): I’ve been through before how this simply isn’t the same caliber Virginia team compared to the one that cut the nets down last April. This Cavaliers team, while still playing the same caliber defense we’re used to seeing from a Tony Bennett outfit, is just horrendous offensively. Consider that this year’s team actually ranks spot HIGHER in defensive efficiency compared to last season. But offensively, they’ve fallen from 2nd to 212th. They are averaging only 56.2 PPG on the road. Then again, Pitt is not exactly tearing it up in the ACC this year either. The Panthers come into Saturday on a three-game losing streak. The most recent setback came Tuesday when they lost by 15 at Florida State. Most of their ACC wins have come against teams located at the bottom of the conference standings. Those three straight losses have all come by double digits. As a result, I expect a desperate team to bring its ‘A’ game here. Despite only losing once (to Louisville) in its last eight games, Virginia still fails to crack my top 40 nationally and right now is still considered a “bubble team” for the NCAA Tournament. This is the first meeting of the year with Pitt. They’ve mostly handled Pitt through the years, but I continue to worry about this group’s ability to score. Averaging so few points makes it increasingly difficult to cover as a favorite and sure enough the Hoos are 4-13 ATS this year vs. winning teams. 8* Pittsburgh |
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02-21-20 | Grizzlies +11 v. Lakers | Top | 105-117 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
10* Memphis (10:35 ET): The Grizzlies had a game last night in Sacramento and lost it by four points. That result seemingly does not bode well for tonight’s contest out in LA against the Lakers. But it’s a lot of points the Grizzlies are getting here and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if LeBron & company come out rusty in their first game post-All Star Break. I won’t go so far as to call this number “way off,” but Memphis has suffered only three SU defeats in its last 11 games. They are 5-2 SU/ATS in the second game of a back to back this season. The Lakers went into the Break in first place in the Western Conference. They won their last three games, but two of those were close (5 pt wins). Seven of the Lakers’ 12 SU losses this year have been at home. They only beat Memphis by a single point the last time they faced them and that was back in November. The Grizzlies have gotten much better since that time, going 23-17 SU overall. Incredibly, there have been three different times this season that Memphis has been a double digit dog and won the game outright. The last such time was right here in this building against the Clippers when they won 140-114, setting off what would be a 7-game win streak. It’s just too many points for the Lakers to lay in their first game back after the All-Star Break and remember that their two stars (LeBron & Anthony Davis) figured heavily into Sunday’s All-Star Game. 10* Memphis |
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02-21-20 | Princeton v. Harvard -7.5 | Top | 60-61 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
10* Harvard (7:00 ET): Despite the fact that leading scorer Bryce Aiken has played in just seven games all season, Harvard has persevered to go 16-7 SU and they are just one game back of both Yale & Princeton in the Ivy League standings. Tonight, they get to host Princeton and it’s a revenge game for a 70-69 loss that occurred back on Feb 1st. Harvard was favored in that game, despite it being on the road, which is telling. I think laying the points is the right move in this rematch as the Crimson look to have a sizable edge at home. That first meeting w/ Princeton was part of a five-game road trip for Harvard in which they finished up 2-3 SU. All five games were decided by four points or less (by 10 pts total!) including a pair of one-point losses. It was another close call for the Crimson in their last game as they needed double overtime to get by Columbia on Saturday. But that made it a 2-0 sweep for the week at home where they are now 8-1 SU on the year and holding opponents to a scant 59.4 PPG. The only loss at home was to Maryland, who is a top 10 team nationally. Princeton is coming off an easy 73-54 win over Brown. That was a nice bounce back for them after being blown out by Yale, 88-64, in their own gym the night prior. While they did manage to slip by Harvard the first time, note it took a 56.5% shooting night from three-point range to do so. This line is rather telling given the Tigers are tied for 1st place in the conference. They give up 77.6 PPG on the road and w/ Harvard’s three league losses coming by a total of five points, it’s safe to say they are better than their record. 10* Harvard |
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02-20-20 | Georgia Southern v. Texas State -5.5 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
10* Texas State (8:00 ET): Off to the Sun Belt we go for this one as Texas State hosts Ga Southern in what amounts to a very important game. This conference race remains wide open with the four teams at the top separated by just two games. These two teams are both two games back of leader Little Rock, who Texas State just beat exactly one week ago here in San Marcos. The Bobcats followed that up w/ another home victory, 69-64 over Arkansas State, and they enter tonight on a 9-2 hot streak w/ the two losses coming by a total of five points. Georgia Southern, on the other hand, is off a loss and a bad one at that. They fell 62-57 at home to Appalachian State as a six-point home favorite. That result snapped a three-game win streak. What really hurt the Eagles in that loss Saturday was them missing 16 of 18 three-point attempts. Tonight they’re up against a team that allows just 63.6 PPG on the year and even fewer (60.6) at home. Again, Ga Southern scored just 57 points in its last game. This is also a revenge spot for Texas State as they lost by three at Ga Southern back in December. Since then, things have obviously “picked up” (see above). Over the L11 games, no opponent has scored more than 66 pts on the Bobcats. Ga Southern has actually not been an underdog since Jan 18th when they lost at South Alabama. It’s a role that has not treated them well at all as they’ve failed to cover five of the seven times and lost six of those games outright. This is Texas State’s night. 10* Texas State |
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02-20-20 | Heat v. Hawks +6.5 | Top | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): It feels good to have the NBA back Thursday. For those unaware, Miami has the sharpest home vs. road split in the league outside of Philadelphia. While the Heat have gone an impressive 22-3 SU at home this year, they are still only in fourth place in the Eastern Conference due to a 13-16 road record. The proof is “in the numbers” as they go from a +10.6 PPG scoring differential at home to -2.9 on the road. With them laying so many points on the road tonight, I’ve got no choice but to fade. While Atlanta’s home record (9-15 SU) is even worse than Miami’s road mark, the Hawks are generally a lot more competitive here in their own building. They’re only -3.4 PPG, which is a massive improvement from them being outscored by an average 13.3 PPG on the road. While I cannot run from the fact the Hawks are at the bottom of the league record-wise and have some serious defensive issues, this is precisely the kind of situation (off a long break) where they should be capable of pulling an upset, or at the very least keep the game close. Now the Hawks are 0-3 vs. the Heat (SU and ATS) this season with all those games taking place before X-Mas. But two were in Miami. Tonight is also the end of a six-game road trip for the Heat that goes back to Feb 5. Their only SU win on the trip so far came at Golden State. Another thing to consider is that Miami was a very lucky team in the first half. They went 8-0 in overtime games, which is almost unheard of as an achievement. One of those was against the Hawks and somehow they ended up prevailing by 14 (misleading final!). Take the points here. 10* Atlanta |
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02-19-20 | Butler +6 v. Seton Hall | Top | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
8* Butler (6:30 ET): I’ve got much respect for Seton Hall, who leads the Big East right now w/ a 10-3 SU record in conference play. But the Pirates have dropped two in a row, including one at home to Creighton, and this is a tough spot laying points to a fellow ranked team. Butler certainly won’t be lacking for motivation as it has revenge for a 78-70 home loss to “The Hall” last month and things have gone a little “sideways” recently for the Bulldogs as they are just 4-6 SU their L10 games. Butler is coming off a bad loss to Georgetown where they were 12.5-point home favorites. They lost 73-66. While HC LaVall Jordan has been quick to point to defensive issues, it’s the offense that’s hurt the Bulldogs more of late. They’ve failed to hit 70 pts in three straight games as well as five of the last six. This is a team that still ranks 26th in the country in offensive efficiency and makes 53.3% of its two-point attempts. The good news is that it was only two games ago that the Bulldogs held a lead as large as 17 points against a good Xavier team. Seton Hall HC Kevin Willard admitted after Saturday’s loss at Providence that he’s dealing with “some guys with bad attitudes right now.” That’s never a good sign, especially this late in the season. Curiously, the Pirates are shooting below 30% from three-point range at home. That’s a big break for a Butler team that admittedly struggles to defend beyond the arc. But they are holding opponents to 43.3% from two-point range. Virtually all of the recent head to head meetings have been close (three decided by 2 pts or less!) and w/ Butler 5-1 ATS L6 visits here, I’m taking the points. 8* Butler |
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02-18-20 | Kent State -3 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 49-70 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
10* Kent State (7:00 ET): After back to back “clunkers” against Ball State and Northern Illinois (scored 54 pts both games), Kent State played one of its best games of the year Saturday, riding a career-high 27 points from Troy Simons and a season-high 17 made three-pointers as a team en route to an 87-72 victory over Ohio. They look to continue better position themselves for the MAC Tournament Tuesday when they hit the road to face a rising Eastern Michigan team. Eastern Michigan has covered five straight games and won them all but one, a 59-58 loss at Akron. The Eagles play pretty outstanding defense, especially at home where they are giving up only 59.5 PPG. Factoring that in along with the recent form makes it seem they’ll be a pretty “tough out” for the Golden Flashes tonight. But something that is very interesting here is the oddsmakers’ perception of EMU. Their last game (a 69-51 over Western Michigan) marked the 1st time ALL YEAR that they were favored in MAC play! So I think it speaks volumes that the road team comes in favored here. Yes, Eastern Michigan has been winning, but three of their last four wins have been by four points or less. Before this 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS streak began, the Eagles had actually lost seven in a row. Incredibly, this is a team that has been favored only six times all year (6-0 in those games). They are still just 4-10 SU in the underdog role. Off the strong showing Saturday, look for Kent State to come in and take care of business. 10* Kent State |
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02-17-20 | Iowa State +16.5 v. Kansas | Top | 71-91 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
10* Iowa State (9:00 ET): Kansas figures to still be at #3 in the polls when it tips off against Iowa State Monday in Lawrence. The Jayhawks, now 22-3 SU on the year, notched impressive wins over West Virginia (58-49) and Oklahoma (87-70) over the past week. They’ve now won 10 in a row and truth be told there is an argument to be made that this is the best team in the entire country. KU has covered the spread in three straight games. Iowa State had a far more tumultuous week as they learned star Tyrese Haliburton, projected to be a 1st round NBA pick, will miss the rest of the season with a wrist injury. In their first game w/o Haliburton, the Cyclones were crushed 90-61 at Oklahoma. But they then circled the wagons Saturday for arguably their most impressive performance to date, an 81-52 thrashing of Texas in Ames. Kansas has #1 Baylor on deck, a showdown in Waco that takes place Saturday. They already faced Iowa State right before Baylor earlier this season and this time KU is hopeful things turn out better. That’s because last time they ended up losing to Baylor 67-55. They did defeat ISU 79-53 in Ames, but I look for this rematch to be a lot closer than that. It’s the most points the Cyclones will get in any game all season and they’re 22-10 ATS as a road dog of at least 12.5 points going back more than a decade. The “lookahead” factor is real here. 10* Iowa State |
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02-16-20 | Arizona State v. California +5 | Top | 80-75 | Push | 0 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
8* California (6:00 ET): It would appear as if these two teams are trending in pretty different directions coming into Sunday, but the reality of the matter is that neither is really heading anywhere of note. Arizona State has won four in a row, including an upset at Stanford on Thursday, but the Sun Devils are still aren’t considered a NCAA Tourney team (nor should they be). Cal, who no one expected to do much this year, has lost three in a row. But save for Thursday’s loss to a very good Arizona team, the Bears have proven to be a pretty tough “out” here in Berkeley. I consider Arizona to be the Pac 12’s best team, so I won’t put much stock in the fact California lost to them by a score of 68-52. That non-cover (were +10.5) snapped a 5-0 ATS run in Pac 12 home games for Cal, which included three outright upsets. The only two conference opponents to come in here and win are Arizona and Oregon, the two best teams. This is simply a much better team when at home and it’s a benefit that ASU is playing its second straight road game. While in the midst of (arguably) their most successful stretch of the season, Arizona State is mostly winning close. The last two games have seen them prevail by a total of seven points and four of their last five wins have been by five points or fewer. That leaves them on “shaky ground” as a road favorite as far as I’m concerned. This will be just the third time the Sun Devils have been a road favorite this season and they are 0-2 ATS the previous two occasions with a two-point win over Princeton (2nd game of the season) and an outright loss at Washington State last month. 8* California |
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02-16-20 | Memphis v. Connecticut -3.5 | Top | 61-64 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
8* Connecticut (3:00 ET): As it stands now, the American Conference may be sending as few as 2-3 teams to the NCAA Tournament and Memphis won’t be one of them. Anfernee Hardaway’s Tigers came into the 2019-20 season with plenty of promise, but things have been marred with controversy from the start as top recruit James Wiseman was quickly ruled ineligible. The team has still managed to go 17-7 SU, but comes into Sunday off B2B losses (to South Florida and Cincinnati), the latter of which coming in a game that went to OT. UConn’s glory days seem like a long time ago, but the Huskies have proven to be a tough out lately by going 3-0 ATS their L3 games. Two of those were also SU wins, one of them against the AAC leader (at the time) Tulsa. That was followed by a minor upset of Cincinnati here at home (also an overtime game)) and then on Wednesday the Huskies gave SMU all they could handle in an eventual 79-75 loss. The Huskies still covered the spread (+5) even though they allowed SMU to shoot 55% from the field. This is a revenge game for UConn as they lost 70-63 down in Memphis on Feb 1. That was a tie game w/ under three minutes to go, but Memphis uncharacteristically hit most of its free throws down the stretch (9 of 10) to get the win and cash as five-point chalk. While UConn is 0-5 ATS its L5 times hosting the Tigers, I see them getting revenge this afternoon as they are simply a much better team at home where they are 10-3 SU/9-4 ATS. They shot poorly in the game at Memphis, something I don’t see happening today. Memphis makes less than 41% of its FG attempts on the road. 8* Connecticut |
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02-16-20 | Cal-Irvine -3 v. Hawaii | Top | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
8* UC Irvine (11:59 ET): UC Irvine continues to lead the Big West (8-2 SU in conf play) and should be considered - by far - the best team this league has to offer. The Anteaters’ overall record may be just 16-10. But they took on a tough non-conference schedule. It was last Saturday when they suffered their second loss in Big West play, 64-61 at UCSB. But they wasted little time in rebounding as they went to rival UC Riverside and won 63-59. The next goal is ending a 3-game ATS losing streak. Hawaii host UC Irvine tonight. The Warriors have not covered the spread in any of their last seven lined contests. They’ve also lost the last three on the court. The most recent was by a single point, 50-49, to Long Beach State right here at home. While that was only their third home loss of the season, the Warriors definitely still deserve to be underdogs tonight. They lost at UC Irvine by 14 last month and were never really in the game. It’s pretty crazy that three of the last six meetings between these teams have been decided by exactly one point. But the other three have all been comfortable victories for UC Irvine. Hawaii is one of only three teams besides UC Irvine in the Big West to have a winning overall record. But that should also say something about the Warriors inability to get the cash. Wednesday’s 4-point win by UC Irvine was their first all year in the Big West by less than seven points. They cover the spread here. 8* UC Irvine |
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02-15-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida -2 | Top | 56-48 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
10* South Florida (12:00 ET): Tulsa was badly exposed last week when they lost by 16 to UConn as a three-point home favorite. Believe it or not, the Golden Hurricane actually came into that game leading the American Conference. They were further exposed in their next game, an 83-75 loss at UCF. But they did bounce back earlier this week w/ a convincing 70-56 win over East Carolina, a team near the bottom of the AAC. Still in third place, the Golden Hurricane now make the long trip to USF for an early Saturday start. South Florida has covered four straight, the lone SU loss in that stretch coming last time out when they faced first place (and the only ranked AAC team) Houston. But the Bulls lost by only four. This team may have its issues scoring, but they play excellent defense as is evident by the fact they are allowing only 57.8 PPG at home. The game before they lost to Houston, USF went to Memphis and won outright. The two previous games saw them allow just 100 points total. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS on Saturdays this season. Other than vs. East Carolina, the only other time Tulsa has been a favorite in conference play was the game against UConn. We saw what happened there. Once again, oddsmakers are speaking volumes by installing them as an underdog here. The kind of defense USF can play here at home is the difference. They lead the conference in scoring defense. We saw Tulsa allow 83 pts in their last road game to a UCF team that USF held to 48 pts. Both times this year that the Bulls have been favored at home by three points or less, they have gotten the cash. 10* South Florida |
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02-13-20 | Thunder +2 v. Pelicans | Top | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:00 ET): Back on Tuesday, I noted how the Pelicans have been doing with Zion Williamson. Since he debuted, the team’s record is 6-4 SU w/ him missing one of the losses. I had New Orleans Tuesday, in a home game vs. Portland, but if you read that analysis then you know it was more of a fade on a Blazers team that more often than not struggles on the road. Sure enough, they prevailed by 21 points. They’re at home again Thursday, but playing against what I consider a more formidable team. Oklahoma City has been one of the big surprises of the first half of the season. Having already gone over their season win total (31.5), they lead the league with a 34-19-1 ATS record. That said, they did just drop a home game to San Antonio Tuesday night 114-106 as an eight-point favorite. Count on them bouncing back here though. Incredibly, they have gone 20-5 ATS on the road, so they are a much bigger threat than the Blazers were. While tonight’s number is short, it’s worth noting OKC is 21-8 ATS getting points. The Thunder are also 3-0 vs. the Pelicans this season. The three wins were all relatively close and when New Orleans didn’t have Williamson in the lineup. Nevertheless, my view is that OKC is the better team here. The Pelicans still have massive defensive issues in that they give up 117.2 points per game. That’s the most in the Western Conference and things really haven’t been much better since Williamson arrived. In each of the L5 games, NO has allowed at least 117 pts. 10* Oklahoma City |
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02-12-20 | Heat v. Jazz -4.5 | Top | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Miami (9:05 ET): Oddsmakers would appear to be “begging” you to take Utah here as the line has been set low. The Jazz have won three straight, one of them a “controversial” win over Miami and the other two being upsets of Houston and Dallas on the road. So they are hot. And we know Miami struggles on the road. But the Heat finally did win a game on this “West Coast” swing by beating Golden State 113-101 (-7) on Monday. Jimmy Butler is now back in the lineup after missing two games, which obviously makes the Heat a more formidable team. Personally, I don’t see any issue with the line here as these teams come into Wednesday with the exact same records and are both in fourth place in their respective conferences. I won’t run from the fact the Heat are just 13-15 SU on the road, but note they are only being outscored on average by 2.4 points in those games. Utah’s three game win streak has seen them prevail by three, one and four points. They haven’t won a game by more than five points since 1.22 against Golden State! So I think there’s a pretty viable scenario that the Heat could lose this game and still cover. After all, the reverse of that happened when the Jazz visited Miami back on 12.27. The Heat won 107-104, but Utah got the cash as 4.5 point dogs. Of course, I very much give the Heat a chance to win this game as they are a much better team with Butler back in the lineup. The Jazz have not been playing great defense recently and aren’t about to approach the 59.0 FG% they had Monday vs. Dallas. Take the points. 10* Miami |
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02-11-20 | Blazers v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 117-138 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Since Zion Williamson debuted, the Pelicans have gone 5-4 SU. They’ve won B2B games, putting up 124 and 125 pts in road wins over Indiana and Chicago. Ironically, Williamson did not play in Saturday’s win over the Pacers, nor did All-Star Brandon Ingram. At least Williamson will return tonight for a key home game against a Portland team that has won six of eight and is 2.5 games ahead of New Orleans in the standings. The Pelicans are 2-0 SU/ATS vs. the Blazers this year, both wins coming before X-Mas and thus w/o Williamson. As stated above, New Orleans isn’t the only team surging here. Portland has won six of eight. But those two losses have something in common in that they were both on the road. Exactly one week ago, we faded them at Denver and they lost by 28 points. Then came a controversial loss in Utah where Damian Lillard was robbed of a potential GW basket when an obvious goaltending was not called. It must be mentioned that the Blazers are still only 10-18 SU on the road this season. New Orleans is 7-1 ATS this season when playing with two days rest. That win in Indiana took place Saturday. Again, this is a really key game as the Pelicans need to jump three teams, Portland among them, to get the #8 seed in the Western Conference. Despite the slow start to the season, NO very much has a similar statistical profile to the teams they are competing with. That loss in Denver last week showed how much the Blazers’ scoring drops off on the road. 10* New Orleans |
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02-11-20 | Penn State v. Purdue -4.5 | Top | 88-76 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
8* Purdue (6:30 ET): I cannot stress enough just how loaded the Big 10 is this year. The conference has 12 of its members ranked among my top 40 teams in the country! Perhaps the most interesting of those 12 is Purdue, a 14-10 SU team that I call one of my top 15 in the country! Go ahead and disregard that record as I’ve long believed the Boilermakers are set to go on a big run. We’re already starting to see signs of a surge w/ them winning their last three games, two of which were on the road. Penn State is ranked (#13) coming into this game and that seems about right to me. The Nittany Lions are having a breakthrough season and lately they’ve been getting the job done for bettors, not only winning six in a row straight up, but covering the spread in all six games as well. That includes wins at Michigan and Michigan State. Because of that they figure to be a popular dog tonight, but I’m going in the opposite direction. Penn State is just 2-17 SU its last 19 visits to West Lafayette. Purdue is 10-2 SU at home this season and winning by an average of more than 20 PPG. Their last time here saw them absolutely crush a very good Iowa team, 104-68. They followed that up w/ their largest win at Assembly Hall in Indiana in more than 40 years (74-62). Those two games have seen the Boilermakers shoot a jaw-dropping 54% from three-point range. They’ve covered 8 of the 12 home games and are 41-3 SU their L44 here overall. 8* Purdue |
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02-10-20 | Kings +14.5 v. Bucks | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (8:05 ET): Milwaukee is obviously an elite team with few holes as we approach the All-Star Break. In fact, I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say the Bucks are - rather easily - the top team in the league right now. Since X-Mas, they’ve gone 18-2 SU including perfect 4-0 start to February. This stretch includes an easy 21-point win at Sacramento on January 10th, but for a variety of reasons I’m expecting things to be closer here. This will end up being the most points Sacramento gets in any game all season. Despite what the final score ended up being, the Kings actually fought valiantly against the Bucks last month, rallying to take the lead in the 3Q after trailing by as many as 18 early. But a -20 discrepancy in attempts at the FT line was too much to overcome as were 16 turnovers and poor 3-point shooting. That loss ended up being the start of a five-game SU/ATS slide for the Kings, but they’ll arrive in Milwaukee in much better form. They’ve won and covered three straight including 122-102 over San Antonio Saturday night. Now skeptics will point to the fact that all three wins came in Sacramento. But I’m not expecting a win here. However, the number is such that a play on the Kings plus the points is warranted. They are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times they’ve gotten at least 12.5 points from the oddsmakers. Also, there’s a chance Giannis Antetokounmpo may not play tonight for the Bucks (“personal reasons”). So I’d bet this one quickly as the line should come down by several points if Antetokounmpo is out. Regardless, I see the Kings covering. 10* Sacramento |
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02-09-20 | Jazz +4 v. Rockets | Top | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
10* Utah (7:05 ET): From now until the end of the regular season, there figures to be a LOT of movement among the six teams behind the Lakers in the Western Conference. The teams currently seeded #2 through #7 are separated by just five games and most of them have taken a turn at the #2 spot. Utah was once the hottest team in the NBA as from 12/11 through 1/25 they won 19 of 21 games. But prior to scoring a controversial win over Portland on Friday night, they’d lost five in a row. They are 0-6 ATS the L6 games. Because of the controversial nature of the victory Friday night (goaltending was not called on what would have been the GW basket for Portland), my guess is there won’t be many people looking to step out and take the Jazz here. But I’m not afraid as they’ve got revenge on the mind here from an embarrassing loss on 1/27 where the Rockets played without both James Harden and Russell Westbrook. That’s what began the Jazz’s current slide. Let’s not forget, they also have revenge for last year’s playoff exit. Speaking of bad losses, Houston just took one on the chin Friday, losing at Phoenix 127-91. That snapped a four-game win streak. The Rockets have gone 10 games w/o losing two straight, but I’m still liking the points here as Utah has not been a dog since 12.28 when they went to LA and upset the Clippers. They have won (outright) the last three times they’ve been in the underdog role. I’ve got the Jazz rated slightly higher than the Rockets in my own power ratings. 10* Utah |
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02-09-20 | Notre Dame v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 61-57 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
10* Clemson (6:00 ET): The largest gap in the ACC standings exists between the top three and the rest of the field (three games). After L’ville, Duke & Florida State, the next nine teams are separated by only 2.5 games. These two schools are among that group of nine, but seem to be trending in opposite directions as Notre Dame has won and covered three straight while Clemson is coming off two straight losses. Sometimes though, handicapping a game can be as simple as who has the home court edge. That’s the case here. Both Clemson losses in the last week have been on the road. They scored only 44 points against both Wake Forest and Virginia, not something the Tigers should be proud of in the least. But there’s been a bit of a predictable pattern to their games this year, at least in ACC play. The last four road games - all losses with them scoring no more than 62 points. The last four home games - all wins with them scoring at least 71 points. That includes an upset of Duke (79-72, +10.5) back on January 14th, which came on the heels of the program’s 1st ever win at North Carolina. Similarly, ND has looked good at home recently with the entirety of the 3-game win streak coming in South Bend. Those three wins also all came against teams in the bottom half of the ACC. We’re about to find out what the Fighting Irish are made of as their next three games are on the road. The Irish are just 2-5 SU outside of South Bend this year. Clemson has proven it can beat the “big boys” (UNC and Duke in a 4-day span) and holds teams to 62.2 PPG at home. This has “bounce back” written all over it. 10* Clemson |
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02-08-20 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's +6 | Top | 90-60 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
10* St. Mary’s (10:00 ET): We all know Gonzaga is “head and shoulders” above the rest of the West Coast Conference, but if there’s one rival known to give them fits it would be St. Mary’s. The Gaels have won two of the last five head to head meetings outright including LY’s WCC Tourney Final. Gonzaga may come into this game at 24-1 SU overall and 10-0 in conference play with those 10 victories coming by an average of 23.0 PPG. But they’ve failed to cover the L3 games and if they were to lose a WCC game outright, it would be this one. Take the points. In the last 10 days, I’ve actually faded both of these teams. St. Mary’s, I faded exactly one week ago at BYU. As a dog, they led most of the way and ended up covering the spread in an 81-79 loss. So I was wrong there. The Gaels have since bounced back with a 66-60 win at San Diego, though they did not cover the 11-point spread. Looking at their three WCC losses this year, two have been by two points or less while the other was a quadruple overtime game. Gonzaga may be the most efficient offense in the country but SMU also happens to be in the top 10. Gonzaga has gone 751 days w/o losing a regular season conference game. The last loss came January 18th, 2018 -- to St. Mary’s. Despite the perceived invincibility, oddsmakers seem to have caught up to the Zags, who have failed to cover three in a row including our Game of the Week on Santa Clara last Thursday. So let’s make it two straight weeks going against Gonzaga with a GOW play as this is the only time SMU will be a home dog this season. They are allowing only 62.5 PPG at home. 10* St. Mary’s |
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02-08-20 | Nets +7.5 v. Raptors | Top | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The number 13 proved NOT to be unlucky for the Raptors last night as they won their 13th straight game (a franchise record), 115-106 at Indiana. Two nights prior, they beat the Pacers here at home on a buzzer-beater, which was the closest call during the win streak. Now 38-14 SU and in second place in the Eastern Conference, Toronto does find itself in a bit of a tough spot Saturday laying this many points to Brooklyn. This will be only the third time during the win streak that the Raptors have had to play a back to back. Of course, the Nets won’t have Kyrie Irving in the lineup tonight. But they should be used to that by now as Irving has played in only 20 of the team’s 50 games this season. The Nets are off a couple of impressive home victories, both of which saw them cover the spread. It was double digit victories over the Suns and Warriors, the latter coming by 41 points, the largest MOV the Nets have had in a game all season. That game was played Wednesday, so Brooklyn clearly is the more rested team here. Health issues aren’t exclusive to the Brooklyn side here. Toronto has been as banged up as almost any team in the league this year, making their WL record all the more impressive. But last night saw Kyle Lowry go down with an injury and he’s not expected to play tonight. That makes three starters absent for the Raptors as both Marc Gasol and Norman Powell are both out indefinitely as well. Brooklyn will be highly motivated here as they’ve lost five straight to the Raptors and nine in a row in Toronto. This is their chance to put an end to a lot of streaks. Take the points. 10* Brooklyn |
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02-08-20 | SMU v. Temple +2 | Top | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
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8* Temple (12:00 ET): We revisit the American Conference early Saturday afternoon as SMU visits Philly to face Temple. For the past several years, SMU has been a really good home team. But outside of Moody Coliseum, they are just 9-19 straight up the last three seasons. That includes just 1-3 SU on the conference road this season with the most recent defeat coming at Cincinnati, a little over a week ago. Since suffering that 22-point defeat, the Mustangs have played only one time. It was a 15-point home win over last place Tulane. Temple hasn’t been as good as usual this year (just 9-13 SU) and since we turned the calendar to 2020 things have really taken a downturn. The Owls are only 2-8 SU their L10 games after a 79-65 loss at Memphis earlier in the week. But they did beat arguably the top team in the American, Wichita State, here at home. They also won their last home game, 76-64 over East Carolina, covering a 10.5-pt spread. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, Temple has gone 6-1 ATS the L3 seasons. Three of SMU’s four road wins this year have been by four points or less, so the overall record could be a lot worse. Temple might only be 6-4 SU at home this year, but they are 27-11 SU here the L3 seasons. SMU is -1.8 points per game on the road while Temple is +7.4. I don’t think the Owls should be the dog here. I know SMU won by 16 in Dallas, but that was a terrible shooting night for Temple as they made only 32.7% of their shots, including a stunning 12 of 37 on 2-pt attempts. While SMU may lead the conference in scoring, Temple held them below their average last month and has allowed 68 pts or less in 14 of 22 games. 8* Temple |
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02-07-20 | Maryland v. Illinois -2 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
10* Illinois (8:00 ET): We all know just how loaded the Big 10 is. So these two teams should be commended for entering Friday night’s showdown on FS-1 in a first place tie with one another. Maryland being tied for first is not that big of a surprise as the Terps were expected to be near the top of the league standings (most had them finishing 2nd behind Michigan State). Illinois is a surprise as they were pegged for a “middle of the pack” finish. While their seven-game win streak was snapped Sunday in Iowa, the Illini are my pick to get the cash Friday as they are back in Champaign-Urbana where they’ve gone 12-1 SU this season. Maryland comes into this game on a five-game win streak and has held its last two opponents to less than 37% shooting. They are coming off a hard-fought 54-51 win over Rutgers Tuesday night as they held the Scarlet Knights to 33.8%. But that was in College Park. The Terrapins are just 2-4 SU in “true” road games this season and despite winning the last two, their defense wasn’t nearly as tight as both opponents (Northwestern, Indiana) shot north of 50% from the field. Illinois should be the more motivated team tonight as not only are they coming off a loss, but they’ve also got revenge on the mind from a 59-58 loss at Maryland back in December. That game saw the Illini blow a 14-pt halftime lead. They are the more rested team coming into this rematch with two extra days of prep time. They have covered all times this year as a home favorite of three points or less. 10* Illinois |
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02-07-20 | Harvard v. Yale -6.5 | Top | 78-77 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
8* Harvard (5:00 ET): One of college sports’ most prominent rivalries is renewed on the basketball court Friday night with Harvard taking on Yale. Yale is the consensus top team in the Ivy League this year and they should be considering they not only boast a perfect conference record (4-0 SU) but are also 16-5 SU overall and 13-4 ATS. Those four conference wins have all been by double digits and by an average of 17.8 points per game. They are definitely a team to be reckoned with. However, Yale is not only facing a chief rival here but also a team that is an amazing 20-4 ATS the L24 times it has been an underdog. While Harvard is 0-4 ATS in Ivy League play and 0-5 ATS its L5 overall, they were actually favored in all of those games. After opening the conference slate by sweeping a home and home from Dartmouth, last week was not a good one for the Crimson as they lost by three at Penn and by one at Princeton. Incredibly, seven of Harvard’s last eight games have been decided by five points or less. But because they were favored in all but one, they haven’t been doing well ATS. But the one time in that stretch that Harvard was catching points, they won outright at UC Irvine (top team in Big West). As mentioned above, the Crimson have been nothing short of extraordinary as underdogs, not only covering 20 of the last 24 opportunities but also winning 11 of those outright! They may only be 1-4 SU/ATS vs. Yale the L2 seasons, but the one win came here in New Haven last season - as six-point pups. While there’s no Bryce Aiken (injured since December), Harvard can absolutely still win this game. Yale has yet to beat or even face a top four Ivy League team. 8* Harvard |
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02-06-20 | 76ers +9 v. Bucks | Top | 101-112 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): Anyone that’s been following the Sixers this year knows that their home vs road splits are as dramatic as any team in the league. While 22-2 SU at home (+10.4 PPG), Philadelphia is 9-18 on the road and being outscored by 4.7 PPG. The L3 games have really driven the point at home as they’ve lost by double digits at Atlanta (10), Boston (21) and Miami (31). Tonight they’re in Milwaukee to face the best team in basketball. While history certainly suggests the 76ers will lose this game, it won’t be by as much as you might think. Note that even with the horrible start to the current road trip, the Sixers are only getting outscored on average of 4.7 points per game on the road. Obviously, that number has gone up over the L3 games. The Sixers are just 9-17-1 ATS on the road, but what this is a reflection of is they rarely - if ever - are a dog of this size. Previous to this, the most points the 76ers have ever gotten in a game this year was 6.5. Also remember that they beat the Bucks 121-109 on X-Mas Day (at home) and led that game by 27 going into the 4Q. Now there’s no denying that the Bucks are an awesome team that’s out for revenge. But an interesting thing I’m seeing is that they are “only” 9-6 SU vs. .500 or better opponents this season and 6-9 ATS. So they’ve really been feasting on non-winning teams. Philadelphia may not be a good road team, but they are still a good team overall and come in with a 31-20 overall SU record. Expect a tight game that might even be a little lower-scoring than anticipated. 10* Philadelphia |
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02-06-20 | Connecticut v. Tulsa -3 | Top | 72-56 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (7:00 ET): You may be surprised to learn that it is Tulsa - not Wichita State, Memphis or even Houston - leading the American Conference right now with a 7-1 SU record. The Golden Hurricane picked up a huge 54-51 win over Wichita State this past weekend, a game in which they were at home but also getting points. Incredibly, Tulsa’s last four SU wins have all come as underdogs. They’ve now won and covered each of their last six games, five of them coming as underdogs. Thus, it’s interesting that tonight they are favored. While favored, it still seems as if the market isn’t respecting the leaders in the American. It’s only a small number that they are laying to a UConn team that is subpar at best. The Huskies come in at 11-10 SU overall, but are 0-5 in “true” road games and just 2-6 SU in conference games. This once proud program has taken a severe nosedive in recent years. It’s only win over the L6 games came as a 4.5-pt home favorite vs. Temple. They were beaten 70-63 at Memphis on Saturday, failing to cover as 5-pt dogs. This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. Tulsa, not surprisingly, won the first. It was a 79-75 final where the Golden Hurricane came in 5.5 point underdogs. UConn shot poorly in that game (below 40%) and that should be expected again here w/ Tulsa only allowing 60.4 PPG at home. On the flip side, Tulsa made just three 3-pointers in the first meeting and that number should at least double here. In a battle between the first place and second to last place team in a conference, the former should be laying more than this at home. It’s that simple. Tulsa is an underrated team right now. 10* Tulsa |
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02-05-20 | Pacers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:35 ET): Toronto has surged into second place in the Eastern Conference on the back of an 11-game win streak. During the win streak, the Raptors are averaging 120.7 points per game on 50.4% shooting overall, including 39.7% from three-point range. That sounds really impressive, and it is, but it’s also unsustainable. Sunday against the Bulls, they shot 56% overall and made 16 of 34 three-point attempts. This is a team averaging 112.6 PPG on 45.8% shooting for the season. Eventually, they are going to have an “off-night.” The fact that Toronto comes into Tuesday w/ a 36-14 SU record is made all the more impressive by the fact they are 5th in most man games lost. The four teams ahead of them on that list (Warriors, Wizards, Blazers & Pistons) are a combined 69-130 SU. Right now, front line players Marc Gasol and Norman Powell are both out. Yet six different players have led the team in scoring during the 11-game win streak. By the way, a win tonight would set a new franchise record for consecutive SU wins. Another streak on the line here is Toronto’s 11-0 SU run at home against Indiana. But the Pacers did prevail (in overtime) at home against the Raptors back on December 23rd. That was w/o Victor Oladipo, who is now three games into his return. The last two haven’t gone well as the Pacers lost outright as favorites both times. But now they’re an underdog, a role which I believe serves them well. Unlike some of the other top teams in the East, Indiana is actually a good road team (13-12 SU record). In the end, I simply believe Toronto is “due” to drop one. 10* Indiana |
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02-05-20 | Villanova v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
8* Butler (6:30 ET): The last time these teams met (Jan 21), Villanova won rather comfortably. It was a 76-61 final (Nova -3.5), but that was in Philly obviously. Butler now gets its chance to play host as the teams come in ranked #10 and #19 respectively. The Bulldogs have lost only two home games all year, but come into this rematch having dropped four of six overall after a 15-1 SU start. Villanova is also off a loss, 76-61 (oh, the irony!) to Creighton at home. They were 6.5-pt favorites as their seven-game win streak came to an end. Butler also lost as a 6.5-point favorite their last time out. It was not a good effort against Providence, which was a home game. It was also the third straight game w/o PG Aaron Thompson. For the first time, it looked like the Bulldogs really missed him. They missed 14 of 15 three-point attempts and turned it over 15 times. I can’t see them losing for a second straight time at home, however. They give up just 57.6 points per game here. Visiting teams are making just 27.6% of three-point attempts. Villanova, for all its success, has made only 40.8% of its FG attempts in conference play. Butler is just 1-5 SU/ATS its last six meetings with Villanova including four straight losses. So you know they’ll come out motivated. When I look at Villanova being ranked #10, I can’t help but think that’s too high. I have them on the fringes of the Top 20 and KenPom agrees, having them at #23. Four of their seven wins during the recently ended streak were by six points or less. 8* Butler |
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02-04-20 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 99-127 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:05 ET): You may have recently read (see Sunday analysis) how I’m not a huge buyer on the Nuggets vis a vis the other top teams in the West. But tonight is a much better situation for them than it was Sunday in Detroit when they lost outright in overtime, 128-123. This is a home game and the Nuggets will be hosting a Portland team that’s likely on fumes following three consecutive outright upsets of its own. The Blazers have won four in a row overall, also going 4-0 ATS. But they are 0-2 SU/ATS vs. Denver so far this season. While I did cash the Pistons on Super Bowl Sunday, it bears mentioning that the Nuggets had a big lead early - by as many as 21 points. Prior to blowing that lead and losing, Denver had beaten both Utah (hot team) and won at Milwaukee (league’s best team) as a 13-point underdog. They did so while being relatively short-handed. One thing we can count on with the Nuggets now that they are back home is defense - they are giving up just 103.7 PPG at home this season. They allow just 99.7 PPG in division contests. Led by a jaw-dropping offensive display from PG Damian Lillard, the Blazers have become viable again for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Lillard is averaging 48.8 points and 10.2 assists over the last six games. Portland has won all of those but one, however only one came on the road. The Blazers are only 10-16 SU on the road for this season with the team’s overall scoring declining by about seven points from when they play at home. As an underdog, they get outscored by 6.3 PPG. 10* Denver |
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02-03-20 | Baylor v. Kansas State +7 | Top | 73-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
10* Kansas State (9:00 ET): With easy wins (both by double digits) over Iowa State and TCU, #1 Baylor figures to hold the top spot in the new poll that comes out later today. The Bears assumed that spot two weeks ago in the AP and last week in the Coaches, moving past Gonzaga. I think I speak for a lot of people though when I say the Bears are probably NOT the best team in America. There’s still a handful of teams I’d favor over them in a neutral setting (one in their own conference - Kansas) Tonight, they put their 18-game win streak (nation’s longest) on the line at the “Octagon of Doom” in Manhattan, KS. Kansas State is not having a particularly good season as they are just 9-12 SU overall. But the Wildcats have covered three straight, including at West Virginia on Saturday. They also defeated the Mountaineers here in Manhattan. All but one of KSU’s victories this season have been at home where they’re 8-3 SU overall and holding teams to only 59.5 PPG. They were a seven-point home dog when they beat WVU here, 84-68. Look for Wildcats’ leading scorer Xavier Sneed (14.4 PPG) to have a big, bounce-back game tonight. He’s struggled some recently, including tallying only 11 pts in the loss to WVU over the weekend. That game saw the team shoot just 3 of 17 from three-point range. At home, Sneed and the Wildcats figure to shoot much better. Baylor has clearly been impressive all season long, but in what figures to be a low-scoring, defensive-minded game, I want the points. Baylor has not shot better than 45% in any game in 2020. 10* Kansas State |
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02-03-20 | Warriors v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 125-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): It’s not all that often you see the Wizards favored and the fact that they would be laying points to Golden State is something that could not have been believed at the start of the season. But we know how things have gone for the Warriors this year with both “Splash Brothers” (Curry & Thompson) out, leaving the team as a shell of its former championship self. Despite a convincing win the other night in Cleveland, the Dubs still have the worst overall record in the league at 11-39 SU. The Wizards have been a disaster defensively this season, ranking last in the league in efficiency and points allowed. Fortunately for them though, Golden State has been pretty bad defensively as well. Over the last six games, the fewest points allowed by the Warriors was 112 and that came in the win Saturday at Cleveland. Meanwhile, Washington has actually held its last two opponents to 107 pts and as a result won both games. It should be noted the Wizards do allow far less PPG here at home than on the road. I like the matchup for Washington for several reasons. One is that Golden State is playing for a fourth straight time on the road and all of those games have been out East. It was a rare good game for Warriors on Saturday, but that also came at the expense of the worst team in the league. Before that, they’d lost 15 of 16 overall and had gone nearly two months w/o a road win. This will be the Wizards’ third straight game at home and leading scorer Bradley Beal has been motivated by being “snubbed” as an All-Star. 10* Washington |
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02-02-20 | Nuggets v. Pistons +2 | Top | 123-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Detroit (12:35 ET): The Pistons did make the playoffs LY as an 8-seed. But with the top of the Eastern Conference having collectively improved this year, the Pistons have seemingly been “left in the dust” and are further away from contending than they’ve been in awhile. It hasn’t helped that they’ve regressed. Part of the story has been injuries. January ended with Detroit going 0-5 SU and ATS its last five games. I just played against them Friday night. But I’ll be singing a much “different tune” here on Sunday. I’ve said it before - Denver has been a big overachiever the last two seasons. They finished second in the Western Conference a season ago despite several teams behind them having better YTD point differentials. The same thing is happening this year as they are again 2nd in the West even though FIVE teams behind them have better point differentials. That all being said, the Nuggets are off a somewhat shocking win on Friday night as they went to Milwaukee and beat the Bucks 127-115 as a 13-point underdog. They also won at home vs. Utah Thursday night. What makes those two wins even more shocking is that the Nuggets were short-handed for both. Starting backcourt Murray and Harris missed both games as did forward Paul Milsap and backup Mason Plumlee. HC Michael Malone has recently talked about resting players due to increased workloads, particularly Nikola Jokic. Detroit has its own injury issues, but Denver is 3-8 ATS after scoring 115+ points their previous game and only +1.8 PPG on the road. Look for the Pistons to pull the upset. They’re sick of losing. 10* Detroit |
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02-01-20 | St. Mary's v. BYU -5.5 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
8* BYU (10:00 ET): As I went over on Thursday, the West Coast Conference has basically become “Gonzaga & everyone else competing for second place.” This has been the case going back many seasons. Since their arrival into the WCC mix back in 2011, BYU has finished either second or third in the conference every season. Of course, the other perennial challenger to Gonzaga is St. Mary’s. Sure enough, St. Mary’s & BYU come into tonight in 2nd and 3rd place respectively in the WCC. But I’ve got a strong preference here. While unranked, most power rating systems (including my own!) consider BYU to be a Top 25 team (in the country) this year. KenPom has them #18 while BPI (ESPN) has them #27. All three of the Cougars’ WCC losses have come on the road, two of them coming by three points or less and the other at Gonzaga. They have revenge here having fallen at St. Mary’s 87-84 back on January 9th. Sure enough, I cashed St. Mary’s (-2.5) in that game, which went to overtime. But things should turn out much differently here in Provo where BYU is 10-1 SU and outscoring teams by 22.3 PPG. Three of BYU’s losses this year came against Gonzaga, San Diego State and Kansas. All three of those teams are currently projected to be #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. All three losses came when BYU’s best player, Yoeli Childs, was suspended. They were also without Childs when they lost to St. Mary’s, one of four losses by either one point or in overtime for the Cougars. The bottom line is that this team is better than its WL record as we saw in a 27-point win (107-80 over Pepperdine) on Thursday as Childs led the way with 21 pts. This time St. Mary’s has to contend with him and I think the number here speaks volumes. 8* BYU |
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02-01-20 | Houston v. Cincinnati -3 | Top | 62-64 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (6:00 ET): With Memphis predictably underachieving, a “vacuum” was created in the American Conference and both of these teams have moved their way to the top. Houston leads with a 7-1 SU conference record, but Cincy is just a game back as they’ve won three in a row heading into this Saturday showdown. That means a win here would pull the Bearcats even with the Cougars and possibly into a first place tie depending on what Tulsa (6-1) does today vs. Wichita State. The stakes are high here. Cincy has been rolling here at home so they’ve got to be loving the fact they get to host tonight. The Bearcats have had four conference home games so far. They’ve won all of them by at least 16 points. That includes a 31-point drubbing of Tulsa back on January 8th. Tuesday, they won by 22 against SMU, holding the Mustangs to just 43 points on 25.9% shooting. Looking at the Bearcats’ 13-7 SU record, it could be a lot better had they won all five games that either went to OT or were decided by 1 pt (3-2 SU in those games). The Bearcats being favored here may surprise some considering Houston is ranked (#21) and generally considered to be the American’s top team. The Cougars have won 15 of their last 17 games including five straight. Despite Houston holding its opponents to 56.6 PPG on 35,4% shooting during the win streak, Cincy actually comes in with the better defensive efficiency rating for the year as it is holding teams to 35.1% shooting at home. The Bearcats can match Houston on the boards, which is key, and they’ve won 40 of the L44 home games. 10* Cincinnati |
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01-31-20 | Raptors -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Raptors have surged into second place in the Eastern Conference, thanks to a nine-game win streak. They look to make it 10 in a row tonight in Detroit as they visit the Pistons. Last night, Toronto escaped Cleveland with a 115-109 win. That one was closer than expected as the underdog Cavaliers rallied late in the fourth quarter. Still, all but one win during this streak has been by five points and thus I’m going to lay the number tonight against a struggling Pistons side. Detroit is 0-4 SU/ATS its last four games, including a loss to Cleveland. Three of the four losses have been here at home, though the last one - 125-115 to Brooklyn - was on the road. The Pistons defense has been atrocious during the four-game losing streak, giving up 125, 121, 115 and 125 points. All but one opponent shot better than 50%. There’s a big gap in defensive efficiency between these two teams as Toronto ranks 2nd in the league in that department while Detroit is 21st. The fact the Pistons shot 50% themselves on the road Wednesday and still lost by double digits is not a good sign. They are just 2-10 SU/2-9-1 ATS this season after scoring 115+ points in their last game. Toronto has already beaten Detroit twice this season, by 12 at home and by 13 on the road. A third double digit win seems likely considering the current state of the Pistons, who are without three of their best players (including Blake Griffin). Toronto is as healthy as its been all year. Detroit is only 9-16 SU at home. 10* Toronto |
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01-31-20 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo -4 | Top | 78-77 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): The MAC has belonged to Buffalo the last couple years as former HC Nate Oats led the program to four NCAA Tournament appearances over the last five seasons, including a pair of wins. Oats has since moved on (to Alabama), but the Bulls showed they are still a team to be reckoned with as they beat Akron (MAC’s best team this year) on the road Tuesday. The 77-74 outright win (as 7.5-pt dogs) improved UB to 5-1 SU its L6 games, the lone loss coming by four points (here at home) to Kent St last Friday. I look for the Bulls to go into the weekend a lot happier this time around. Tonight, they’ll host Bowling Green, a team that has won seven in a row. Beating such an opponent may sound like a challenge, but note that the Falcons have been incredibly lucky during this win streak of theirs, prevailing by three points or less four times and by six points or less six times. I’m not saying this is going to be an easy win for Buffalo, but BG is definitely “due” to drop a game and I’m all too willing to lay the small number as a result. Bowling Green may have the MAC’s best record (7-1 SU), but Akron and Kent State are probably the two best teams (Akron definitely #1) and that’s who Buffalo has had to face over the past week. Meanwhile, Bowling Green has generally avoided the league’s top teams, save for a 67-61 win over Ball State earlier this week. But that came at home. Buffalo remains one of the country’s highest scoring teams and averages 81.5 PPG when they are at home. While BG may lead the conference, they are just 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. 10* Buffalo |
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01-30-20 | Gonzaga v. Santa Clara +17.5 | Top | 87-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
10* Santa Clara (10:30 ET): Santa Clara will try and do here what no WCC team has been able to do since the Tourney Final last year. That’s beat Gonzaga. The #2 ranked Zags have not lost a regular season WCC game since Jan 18, 2018. Both that and LY’s WCC Tourney Final loss were to St. Mary’s. The last time a WCC team other than St. Mary’s beat Gonzaga was Feb 25th, 2017 (BYU). Overall, the Zags have won 57 of their 59 conference games the L3+ seasons, including a 7-0 mark here in 2019-20. So when it comes to pulling an upset, history is definitely NOT on Santa Clara’s side here. Fortunately though, there is a pointspread. Now oddsmakers haven’t been much assistance for Santa Clara when facing Gonzaga recently. Two weeks ago in Spokane, they lost by 50 (104-54!) to the Zags. That was their 20th straight loss in the rivalry and the fourth time in the last five meetings Gonzaga won by at least 43 points. After failing to cover the first two WCC games this year, the Zags have now covered five straight coming into tonight. But despite the horrible series history, I believe Santa Clara is worth taking plus the points here. It’s a huge difference getting the Zags at home. Santa Clara is 15-1 SU at home this season (only loss was in OT), outscoring teams by 17.4 PPG. The Broncos are coming off a win over San Diego (on the road) and you know revenge has to be on the mind after taking a 50-point drubbing. Gonzaga has a bigger road game (at San Francisco) on deck Saturday, so this one probably won’t have their full attention. 10* Santa Clara |
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01-29-20 | Jazz v. Spurs +5 | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): The Spurs have lost three straight games, all by four points or less. The most recent came in a game where I had the Over, a 110-109 loss in Chicago that was sealed with a pair of last second Zach LaVine free throws. This three-game losing streak has the Spurs stuck in 9th place in the Western Conference, 2.5 games back of Memphis (who won last night). Of course, only the top eight teams make the playoffs, something SA has done for each of the L20+ seasons. Utah has surged into the top three in the West with a 32-14 SU record. I expected the Jazz to finish among the top four this year and they have been almost unbeatable since X-Mas, going 14-2 straight up, not to mention 13-3 ATS. That all being said, the Jazz did lose on Monday, 126-117 to Houston and the Rockets played w/o both Harden & Westbrook. It was Utah’s first home loss since December 10th. They allowed Eric Gordon to go off for 50 points in a result few, if any, saw coming. While 18-4 SU at home, the Jazz are only 14-10 SU on the road. Over the next four days, Utah will play not only here, but also at Denver and Portland. Look for them to “give some back” over the course of this trip. San Antonio has not been kind through the years with the Jazz owning an 8-41 SU record and 14-32-3 ATS record here in the L4 trips. Off three straight losses, the Spurs are the more “desperate” team tonight and with the annual “Rodeo Road Trip” looming, that only amplifies the desperation. When not favored at home, the Spurs have a winning ATS record. 10* San Antonio |
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01-29-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -2 | Top | 81-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): This is an important game in the Big 12, especially on the Texas Tech side. The Red Raiders come in on a two-game losing streak, their second of the new year, plus they have revenge for a loss in Morgantown 18 days ago. The last two losses both came w/ TT favored, the more recent was vs. Kentucky (were -3) and the game went to overtime. I think it’s certainly notable that a now-unranked Red Raiders team remains favored over the #12 team in the country (WVU). That should tell you something right there. West Virginia is definitely a surprise this year as they’ve moved up to #12 in the rankings. They are back to playing defense in Morgantown as this Mountaineers team currently ranks #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, a key metric for March. Bob Huggins’ team is 7-1 ATS its last eight games and coming off a 74-51 beatdown of Missouri in Morgantown. However, all three losses this year came in “true” road games where they are only 3-3 SU. Something to keep in mind is that in the preseason WVU was pegged to finish fifth in the 10-team Big XII. Three-point shooting seemed to be the difference in the UK-Texas Tech matchup. While Kentucky shot 46.7% from behind the arch, TT finished at only 15.8%. Similar poor shooting was the story the Red Raiders in the loss to WVU earlier this month as they were held to 28% overall in Morgantown. I expect them to shoot better in this game, despite WVU’s tremendous defense. Texas Tech is no slouch defensively either, ranking 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and holding opponents to 58.5 PPG here in Lubbock. 10* Texas Tech |
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01-28-20 | Villanova v. St. John's +3.5 | Top | 79-59 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
8* St. John’s (6:30 ET): Coming in at #8 in the latest AP Poll (#10 in Coaches), Villanova feels a bit “overrated,” even with a 16-3 SU record. The Wildcats are certainly a Top 20 team, but that’s about it from where I sit. While they’ve won six in a row and are 12-1 SU since December 1st, ‘Nova has been extremely fortunate to go 6-0 in games decided by six points or less during that time. It just feels like Jay Wright’s squad is “due” to drop one and Tuesday’s road game at St. John’s is the place I’ll fade them. Most of the winning Villanova has been doing of late has been in Philly. Four of the last five wins have come at home, the exception being Saturday’s 64-60 triumph at Providence. I feel the Wildcats were pretty lucky to win there as they made only ONE field goal over the final 6:45 of game time and were outrebounded badly (-14 in offensive rebounds). Providence also had a bad shooting night, making only 31.7% of their shots including 3 of 23 from three-point range. It’s tough to win, on the road no less, when you attempt 15 fewer shots than your opponent. But somehow Villanova did it. St. John’s is a “tougher out” than Providence even though the Red Storm have only two wins in their previous eight games. Both wins were against DePaul, the second one coming on Saturday, 79-66 as 4.5-pt road underdogs. That improves the Red Storm’s record when getting points to 6-3 ATS this season. They are also 8-3 ATS at home where they average 79.5 PPG. On the defensive end, St. John’s has a higher defensive efficiency rating than Villanova. The Red Storm have covered all four meetings w/ Nova the past two seasons (all decided by 7 pts or less). For the favorite, Jermaine Samuels is listed as “day to day” with a foot injury sustained in the Providence game. 8* St. John’s |
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01-27-20 | Northern Colorado v. Eastern Washington +1 | Top | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* Eastern Washington (9:05 ET): The homecourt advantage should be the decisive factor in this game as Eastern Washington has lost only once here in Cheney and that was to Big Sky leader Montana. The Eagles are 5-1 SU in all other conference games and come into Monday on a three-game win streak after handling Southern Utah here at home Saturday night. They needed overtime to get the job done there and did not cover the 3.5-point spread (won 81-78). But all we need tonight is a SU win and that seems like the logical result here. Northern Colorado is also 5-2 SU in Big Sky play. These teams are tied for second, one game back of Montana. Northern Colorado beat Montana, but did so at home. What the Bears must contend with here is an Eastern Washington team that is third in the entire country in scoring, trailing only Gonzaga and Dayton. At home, the Eagles are averaging 93.7 PPG, which is the highest scoring average in the country in home games. It’s been more than six years since Northern Colorado won a game here. Northern Colorado is 2-0 SU in Big Sky road games this season, but those wins came against the two weakest teams in the conference, Weber State and Idaho. The latter was Saturday, by a score of 74-53. This will be the third time this season that the Bears are playing consecutive games on the road. They have yet to sweep as they lost twice back in November and then split a pair last month. So history is not on their side for this one and I just don’t think the Bears have the offense necessary to “keep up” here. 10* Eastern Washington |
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01-26-20 | Wizards v. Hawks -1 | Top | 133-152 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-26-20 | Missouri State v. Drake -4.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
10* Drake (4:00 ET): For the first time this year, Missouri State is off B2B conference wins. The Bears beat Evansville 68-58 and Valparaiso 67-60. Ironically, the last time they lost, I was on them -- a 91-78 loss to Bradley. I just don’t see this middle of the pack MVC team winning for a third straight time as Sunday they have to visit Drake, who they are 0-4 SU/ATS against the last two seasons. Furthermore, Drake is a perfect 10-0 SU here at home, winning by an average of 15.3 PPG. Though a somewhat pedestrian 10-8 ATS this season, Drake has been something of a pointspread juggernaut in recent years. They are 50-29-8 ATS the L88 games including 23-8 here at home. The 10-0 start this year has them at 34-5 SU L39 home games and they’ve covered six of the eight lined affairs here this season. I just find it very hard to believe that that they’re not a safe bet as such as short favorite, especially considering a 25-11 ATS run as chalk. What’s strange about Missouri State’s recent “surge” is that it has come with G Tyrik Dixon out with a shoulder injury. Dixon is the only player on the roster averaging more than two assists per game! Drake is simply the superior side here and coming off a 23-point road win (at Evansville), it’s hard to imagine them stumbling in this situation. 10* Drake |
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01-26-20 | Virginia -5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
8* Virginia (12:00 ET): This Virginia team is nowhere near as talented as what we’ve seen coming out of Charlottesville the last several seasons. That’s evident by the fact the defending National Champs are out of the Top 25, thanks to losses in four of their last five games. But despite this, I’m still not shy about backing them here at Wake Forest. The Cavaliers are 21-6 ATS L27 road games including 8-1 when laying between 3.5 to 6 points. They are well rested (last game was Monday) and all four of those recent losses were of the single digit variety (two by four points or less). Even in a down year in the ACC, Wake Forest is struggling to remain relevant. The Demon Deacons come into Sunday also having lost four out of five. The most recent setback was Tuesday at Clemson, 71-68 as a 9.5-point underdog. Something interesting about this WF team is that their last nine games have gone Over. While they can score, they are also very bad at the defensive end, ranking 151st in the nation in efficiency. I have the Demon Deacons rated as the third worst team in the entire ACC right now. Wake’s ability to score will be severely tested by a Virginia defense that is still among the nation’s best. The Hoos are again #1 in the country, allowing just 49.7 PPG. While their ability to score can certainly be called into question, I think they’re going to have one of their most productive offensive days in awhile here. Wake Forest is a shockingly poor 15-31 ATS its last 46 ACC games and without their second leading scorer (Chaundee Brown) they are really going to struggle to score here. 8* Virginia |
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01-25-20 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -8 | Top | 84-85 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
10* Florida State (8:00 ET): Florida State has climbed all the way up to #5 in the country as they are 16-2 SU and won nine in a row. This is the first time since 1972 that FSU, a school known for its football, has been in the top five in College Basketball. Do I think this is one of the five best teams in America? No I don’t. But in what is a shockingly “down year” for the ACC, the Seminoles are going to finish with a very good record. Them, Duke & Louisville are the only “sure things” for the NCAA Tournament. The Noles do have to play L’ville twice, but they’ve already beaten them on the road. They’ll have to travel to Duke on Feb 10th, but that’s the only game the rest of the way where they’re guaranteed to be underdogs. Now it was not easy last Saturday against Miami as FSU had to rally back from a late nine-point deficit to force OT (where they would go onto win 83-79). That snapped a four-game ATS win streak as the Noles were six-point chalk in Coral Gables. But with a full week off, they should be ready to go tonight at home. Notre Dame lost to Syracuse Wednesday as a five-point favorite in South Bend. Each of the Fighting Irish’s last five games have been decided by five points or less with them winning two and losing three. Tonight, it’s time for them to be on the wrong end of a more lopsided game. Florida State is 9-0 SU this year in Tallahassee, winning by an average of 20.3 PPG. They are 58-3 SU their L61 home games including 28 ACC wins. Notre Dame, never a good road team, is overmatched here. 10* Florida State |
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01-25-20 | Wisc-Milwaukee -2.5 v. Cleveland State | Top | 53-70 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
10* WI-Milwaukee (3:00 ET): Milwaukee, normally not a contender in the Horizon League, has moved up into third place by virtue of B2B wins, the most recent coming in OT against Youngstown State on Thursday. They’ll now go for what would be their second three-game win streak in the New Year (won 5 of 6 overall) Saturday at Cleveland State. The Panthers have yet to string together consecutive road victories this season, but this is also the first time they will have been favored away from home. Given this is WI-Milwaukee’s first time in the road chalk role this year, you can probably guess that the team they are facing here is not very good. That assertion would be correct. Cleveland State comes in at 7-14 SU on the year and has lost four straight. Three of those losses have come by double digits while the last one, here at home, saw them down 12 with just over three minutes to go. The Vikings have really fallen on some “hard times” in recent years. They rank outside the top 300 in the country according to most ratings systems, which is obviously very bad (I have them 314th, 2nd worst among Horizon League schools). Cleveland State just doesn’t score very much. They are averaging only 63 PPG for the season and rank in the bottom 20 nationally in offensive efficiency. Milwaukee seems to have really turned it around in 2020 and a win today would have them in great position going into next week when they’ll face the top two teams in the Horizon League. Note the Panthers had a 10-pt halftime lead (on the road) Thursday, so that game going to OT was a little unfortunate. But they still won and should have too much offense for Cleveland State. 10* WI-Milwaukee |
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01-25-20 | Iowa State v. Auburn -8.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
8* Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn was one of only two remaining unbeatens in all of College Basketball when it lost last 84-63 at Alabama last Wednesday. More “bloom” came off the rose when three days later the Tigers were blown out in Gainesville, losing 69-47 to Florida. That’s a heck of a way for an unbeaten run to end, but Bruce Pearl’s team subsequently bounced back with an 80-67 win over South Carolina earlier in the week. It’s important to note Auburn is still undefeated at home and that’s where they’ll be for today’s game vs. Iowa State, part of the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge. Iowa State enters this game at just .500 overall (9-9 SU). They squared away their record with a 89-82 win in Ames over Oklahoma State on Tuesday. But the bad news for the Cyclones is that it’s been a LONG time since they won B2B games. One would have to go back to a 76-66 win over Seton Hall (shocking in retrospect) to find the last time they did so. That was back on December 8th. Since then, ISU is only 3-6 SU overall. Sometimes it’s as simple as “who’s at home?” Iowa State has not won a “true” road game all season (0-5 SU) while Auburn is 11-0 SU at home. The Tigers are averaging 84.6 PPG at home and they should hit that number today considering the Cyclones allow 79.6 PPG outside of Ames. It’s been a 17.4 PPG margin of victory for Auburn here at home this season and with ISU a money-burning 0 for their last 6 ATS as a road dog of +6.5 to +9, I’ll lay the number here. ISU is just 1-6 ATS as a dog this season. 8* Auburn |
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01-24-20 | Nuggets v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 113-106 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Denver, to me, is the sixth best team in the Western Conference. I thought they greatly overachieved LY in finishing 2nd. They were able to do so in large part on the strength of a league-best 13-3 SU record in games decided by three points or less. Sure enough, they are 6-3 SU in such games this season and have been as high as 2nd in the standings. But there are five other teams with better YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings. Unlike LY, I expect the Nuggets to slowly fall down the pecking order. New Orleans seems to be a team on the rise. We all know that Zion Williamson is now an active participant as the #1 overall draft pick made his pro debut Wednesday against San Antonio. While the Pelicans lost the game 121-117, Williamson definitely showed signs of why he was chosen #1 overall. He finished the game with 22 points including a barrage of 17 straight in the 4Q. While it ultimately wasn’t enough to win or cover, the Pelicans still are 11-5 SU the L16 games while going 13-2-1 ATS. I think it speaks volumes that New Orleans is favored here, given the respective WL records. Then again, the Pelicans are 2-0 SU/ATS vs. the Nuggets this year, winning on both Halloween and X-Mas, and those wins came without Zion in the lineup. Denver is off a 16-point loss the other night in Houston and dealing with multiple injuries right now, the most notables ones being Jamal Murray (ankle), Paul Milsap (knee) and Gary Harris Jr (abdominal). Those are three starters missing from lineup. Of the three, only Harris has a chance to play here, but he’s listed as questionable. Also injured are Mason Plumlee and Michael Porter Jr. 10* New Orleans |
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01-24-20 | Canisius v. Iona -2.5 | Top | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10* Iona (7:00 ET): It has not been a good year (so far) for Iona. The Gaels has a strangely “light” schedule in November and December, playing only seven games total. They’re set to double that number for January tonight as they host MAAC rival Canisius. While just 2-4 SU this month and 4-9 SU overall, Iona looks like a great play in this spot despite all their previous difficulties. Canisius has pulled three straight “small” upsets (all as dogs of +2 or less) but a fourth seems quite unlikely. Iona has been very poor so far at the betting window. They are 2-10 ATS overall including 1-6 as a favorite. That they continue to be favored though tells me something. Something to keep in mind is that the Gaels have played only four home games all year! Two have been one-point losses (to St. Peter’s and Niagara). So their overall (and conference) record could be a lot better. Keep in mind that while Iona is currently last in the MAAC (2-4 SU), only two games separate them from first! The Gaels won last Friday here at home, beating Fairfield 64-57. Unfortunately, they could not sustain that success, losing their next time out (Sunday) to Marist by a score of 83-73 (that was on the road). I think this team is ready to make a run. As for Canisius, regression seems likely. Before their string of upsets, they’d lost six in a row. They are just 3-8 SU on the road this season. The Golden Griffins shot better than 60% in their last game, which was at home, a number they won’t come close to duplicating out on the road. 10* Iona |
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01-23-20 | Tenn-Martin v. Eastern Illinois -8 | Top | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10* Eastern Illinois (8:30 ET): We’re heading to the Ohio Valley Conference for this one, a league that still has TWO unbeaten teams in conference play. Believe it or not, no other conference can say that. But neither of those two teams - Austin Peay or Murray State - are involved in this play. Instead, it’s two teams in the “middle of the pack,” but are trending in opposite directions. Eastern Illinois (Tony Romo’s alma mater) is off a blowout win and back to .500 overall while UT Martin has lost three straight (all at home) to fall to 5-12 SU on the year. To be fair, UT Martin’s losing streak has come at the hands of the three top teams in the OVC, including both unbeatens. But they really struggled on the defensive end against those three teams, giving up 85, 84 and 92 points. There’s really no way of sugarcoating just how bad the Skyhawks are at the defensive end. They are giving up 83.5 PPG on the year and only two of their L10 opponents have failed to score at least 82 points on them. They are second to last in the COUNTRY in defensive efficiency, ahead of only Houston Baptist. The defensive issues have obviously resulted in a poor start to conference play for UT Martin (1-5 SU) and now comes a visit to Eastern Illinois, who is averaging a whopping 91.8 PPG at home. They’ve only played five home games, but the Panthers are undefeated while outscoring their opponents by more than 30 points per game! That’s really impressive. They are in off an 84-59 beatdown of Tenn Tech as 11-pt favorites, which snapped a 6-game ATS losing skid. The Panthers are shooting better than 53% from the field at home! I realize UT Martin has faced Austin Peay and Murray State a total of four times already, but this is a terrible matchup for their terrible defense. 10* Eastern Illinois |
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01-23-20 | Wizards +1.5 v. Cavs | Top | 124-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Wizards lost last night, in overtime, 134-129 at Miami. But even with it being the second night of a back to back here in Cleveland, the Wiz should not be in a position where they are getting points. The 12-32 Cavaliers have the league’s worst net efficiency rating as they are getting outscored by 10.5 points per 100 possessions. They also have not been favored to win a game since January 2nd - when they lost outright here at home to Charlotte. Overall, the Cavs are 0-3 ATS as chalk this season. Washington dug itself a big hole last night in Miami, trailing by as many as 21 points in the 3rd quarter. They started the game by missing their first eight three-point attempts and were just 4 of 22 from beyond the arc by halftime. But give the Wizards credit for getting back into the game and forcing OT. They even had a 118-115 lead going into the final minute of regulation. But it was not to be as the Wiz dropped to 1-6 SU in games decided by 5 pts or less this season. They also took 16 fewer free throws than the Heat, who have lost only one home game all season. I had the Over in last night’s game, an easy winner obviously (even before OT) and there’s definitely a chance this game could turn into a “track meet” as well considering we’re looking at a pair of teams with the worst two defensive efficiency ratings in the league right now. But the big difference is that the Cavaliers (104.8 PPG) can’t score like the Wizards (114.7 PPG) can. Washington is a surprising 4-1 ATS without rest this year and has revenge for a loss to Cleveland that occurred at home back in November. The Cavs have lost their last five games, including a terrible 106-86 setback here at home to the Knicks on Monday. They can’t be trusted to win a game under almost any circumstances. 10* Washington |
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01-23-20 | Delaware +7 v. Hofstra | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
8* Delaware (6:30 ET): The CAA “ain’t what it used to be,” so what we’re left with is a far more “wide-open” league. A conference that has produced TWO Final Four teams this century does have another storyline going for it in 2020 as current leader William & Mary is one of only FOUR original D-I schools NEVER to have made the NCAA Tournament. But tonight, the focus is on Delaware and Hofstra, both of whom are off a close games that didn’t turn out the same way. For a variety of reasons, I’ll be taking the points here. Delaware is off a 79-78 win over Elon, a game that was decided on a three-pointer with just two seconds left. While they escaped with the SU, the Blue Hens did not come close to covering the 10-point spread and are now just 1-5 ATS their L6 games. Tonight, they are looking to make it B2B wins for the first time since conference play began. Interestingly enough, this will be just the second time Delaware has been an underdog to a Colonial opponent and it’s the most points they’ll be taking for any game since facing Villanova last month. Hofstra lost by two at College of Charleston Saturday, capping a three-game road trip where every decision was by exactly two points. The Pride won the first two games, 74-72 over Northeastern and 63-61 over UNC Wilmington. All three games saw the game winning basket made in the final 10 seconds. While a fine home team, this just looks like too many points for Hofstra to be laying. Being in the lower half of the CAA standings, Delaware figures to come in as the more desperate side and I just can’t see them losing by double digits here. 8* Delaware |
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01-22-20 | Grizzlies +7 v. Celtics | Top | 95-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Memphis (7:35 ET): Last Friday, the Grizzlies saw a 6-game ATS win streak end when they failed to cover the nine-point spread in a 113-109 win over Cleveland. Monday saw the end of a 7-game SU win streak when they fell to the Pelicans 126-116. They allowed New Orleans to make a franchise-record 21 three-pointers in that game. Despite both the ATS and SU win streaks having ended, I like the Grizzlies to cover tonight in Boston, something which they have done in 18 of their previous 22 visits. The Celtics picked up a signature win on MLK Day, absolutely annihilating the Lakers 139-107. But before beating the Lakers, Boston had lost six of eight and three straight. I would not be confident in them maintaining the “high” of beating the Lakers. They’ve suffered recent losses to teams worse than the Grizzlies and winning here by the margin suggested by the oddsmakers is going to be tough. Honestly, a Memphis SU win seems more likely than them getting blown out. The Grizzlies have surged into 8th place in the West thanks to an offense that has scored at least 110 points in every game since December 21st. So it’s hard to cover a large spread against against them. Expect them to defend the three-point line better here than they did vs. NO. It’s been a month since Memphis lost B2B games with them going a perfect 4-0 ATS off their L4 SU losses. 10* Memphis |
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01-22-20 | Duquesne v. Rhode Island -4 | Top | 55-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
10* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): Duquesne started the season red hot. They were even one of the last remaining unbeatens at 10-0. The Dukes then lost their next two games, but have subsequently bounced back with 5-0 start in Atlantic 10 play. They and Dayton are the only two A-10 teams without a loss. But a generous schedule is as responsible for this 15-2 SU record as much as anything else. The Dukes’ strength of schedule is outside the top 300 and it’s telling that they are not even in the top 75 of the KenPom rankings. Rhode Island is 4-1 in the A-10. Their only loss was to Richmond, 69-61 at home, in the conference opener. Not only is that the Rams only conference loss, it’s their only home defeat. They are 8-0 otherwise in their own gym and Saturday saw them take care of LaSalle here, 66-63. While the Rhodies did not cover the 10-pt spread, that was because of a poor shooting night. I expect them to bounce back on the offensive end tonight plus they’ve held their L5 opponents to a 39.7 FG%. Three of Rhode Island’s five losses were to Maryland, LSU and West Virginia. Duquesne simply is not in that same class. Keep in mind that none of those three losses were here at home either. Duquesne needed OT to get by Fordham 58-56 last week as an 18-point favorite. Fordham is one of two teams in the conference (St. Joe’s is the other) without a win. I really like the short number here. 10* Rhode Island |
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01-21-20 | Miami-FL +17.5 v. Duke | Top | 59-89 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (9:00 ET): I mentioned Duke in the WF/Clemson writeup and here we are playing against them Tuesday. The Blue Devils have lost two in a row, dropping them to #8 in the rankings. While I still believe this is easily one of the best teams in the country, it’s also a good time to fade Coach K as most bettors are going to look at this matchup and simply assume “bounce back.” Duke will win most likely, but it won’t be as easy as it was down in Coral Gables earlier this month when they beat Miami by 33 points. That was a horrendous loss for Miami as they were coming off an impressive upset at Clemson on New Year’s Eve. Since the Duke game, the Hurricanes have lost three of four, but they were quite competitive on Saturday against another top 10 squad, that being Florida State. The Seminoles are very likely the ACC’s 3rd best team this season (trailing only Duke & Louisville), yet the Canes were able to hang tight,, losing by only four points (83-79) at home. They covered as seven-point dogs and are 3-1 ATS this season after allowing 80+ points in their last game. Duke lost a heavily-hyped showdown with Louisville on Saturday, 79-73, right here at home as 8.5-point chalk. It was their second loss of the season in Durham, the only being that absolute shocker to Stephen F. Austin. It was a near identical score when the Blue Devils lost at Clemson exactly one week ago (79-72). It’s very rare to see Duke off B2B losses and the number looks inflated, especially off two straight poor defensive performances. 8* Miami FL |
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01-21-20 | Clippers v. Mavs -1 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-21-20 | Illinois v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 79-62 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* Purdue (7:00 ET): Purdue is a team I’ve been closely tracking for awhile now. With eight losses already on their resume, the Boilermakers certainly aren’t getting any consideration as a Top 25 team right now. But, make no mistake about it, this is a team that’s far better than it’s 10-8 SU record would seem to indicate. Nine days ago, they proved what they are capable of by demolishing #11 Michigan State (another underrated team) 72-41 right here in West Lafayette. Despite a loss at Maryland on Saturday, both the KenPom ratings and my own consider Purdue to be one of the 25 best teams in the country. Illinois is one of the teams that may pay the price for the Big 10 being so good this year. There are 12 teams from this conference that I have rated within my Top 40 in the country. That’s amazing. The problem for the Illini is that I have them 11th in the pecking order. It’s pretty hard to make the NCAA Tournament when you’re only the 11th best team in your own conference, though Joe Lunardi currently has 11 Big 10 teams in his projected field and the Fighting Illini are among them. Still, despite what happened when these teams met on January 5th, I have Illinois rated as the inferior squad. What happened on January 5th was a 63-37 beatdown of the Boilermakers by the Illini over in Champaign-Urbana. That shocking result began what is now a four-game win streak for Illinois. But I believe revenge is going to be sweet for Purdue tonight. They are 8-1 SU at home and winning by an average of almost 19 PPG. Illinois has been outscored by about 6.0 PPG when they leave campus. Purdue has a top 6 defensive efficiency rating per KenPom and will obviously shoot the ball better tonight than they did two weeks ago when they made only 25% of their FG attempts vs. the Illini. Love the spot and the number here. 10* Purdue. |
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01-20-20 | Weber State v. Portland State -4.5 | Top | 76-92 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
8* Portland State (10:05 ET): Portland State began 2020 with four straight road games, three of them ending up as losses. But they returned home on Saturday and prevailed 82-76 against Idaho State. The Vikings have played a lot of close games in conference play, but tonight they host one of the Big Sky’s weaker teams, that being Weber State. Damian Lillard’s alma mater also happens to be off a win over Idaho State (Thursday) but they needed OT and are only 6-11 SU on the season. This will be Weber State’s fourth time playing on the road since the new year began. Weber State has won just one time as an underdog (1-10 SU in that role) all year and that was 72-67 at Utah Valley State back on December 4th. They’re just 4-7 ATS getting points so them getting such a small number here doesn’t make them the least bit attractive. Again, the Wildcats needed overtime to snap a three-game losing skid on Thursday. They trailed by seven at halftime. It was the fourth straight game where they were held to 64 pts or less in regulation. This team is 287th in offensive efficiency and 280th in defensive efficiency. Portland State has been one of the worst defensive teams in the country so far, but is far more efficient than Weber State on the offensive end (80th nationally). Despite a quicker turnaround between games, I like the spot more for the Vikings as they are at home where they’ve won 25 of their last 36 games straight up. Weber State’s struggles as an underdog aren’t just limited to this season. They’ve lost 23 of their last 28 in that role. It’ll be too much offense from Portland State (82.1 PPG at home) for the underdog to overcome in this one. 8* Portland State |
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01-20-20 | Pacers +7 v. Jazz | Top | 88-118 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
8* Indiana (9:05 ET): The Pacers pulled out a win in Denver last night, rallying with a 41-point 4Q, 18 of those coming from Doug McDermott. They also owned the Nuggets from behind the three-point line, outscoring them there 39-9. The win was the fifth straight for Indiana, who is now 28-15 SU for the year and tied with Boston for 4th place in the Eastern Conference standings. They’ve covered the spread four times during the five-game win streak and won outright both times they were an underdog. They haven’t been a dog of this size since playing at Milwaukee before X-Mas. Speaking of X-Mas, Utah must have gotten one heck of a gift because they’re 11-1 SU since the holiday. They’ve climbed up to third in the West, tied w/ Denver at 29-13. The Jazz’s home record is 16-3 SU, which is one of the best home win percentages in the entire league. They’ve lost only two games since December 10th and both were on the road. Since suffering their last home loss (12/9 vs. OKC), the team has gone 16-2 SU overall. But as hot as the Jazz have been, I feel they are due to “cool off” some. This line is inflated due to it being the second game of a back to back for Indiana. But the Pacers are a solid 3-3 SU in this situation, only being outscored by 3.8 PPG. Too often we see the rested team overvalued in this spot and that’s the case again here. The Jazz have a losing SU record (6-8) vs. teams that have winning records. Incredibly, their L10 games have all been against sub-.500 foes, which explains the win streak. 8* Indiana |
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01-20-20 | Magic v. Hornets +4.5 | Top | 106-83 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (5:05 ET): This is the first meeting of the season between these Southeast Division rivals.They split four games last year. Neither comes into MLK Day playing particularly well. Orlando is in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, but is just 20-23 SU on the season after losing B2B games. Charlotte has lost six in a row, but at least they are now back home after a winless four-game trip out West. This will be the sixth straight road game for the Magic, the last five all coming out West. The situation definitely looks better for the Hornets. After what he called a “disturbing” effort by his team at Golden State the other night, Magic HC Steve Clifford didn’t mince words when it came to the set up for today’s game. "The Charlotte game is going to be difficult because of the travel, the schedule, which to me is ridiculous." Again, Orlando is coming off five straight road games out West, four of which came in a six-day span. Meanwhile, Charlotte hasn’t played since Wednesday and after tonight won’t play again until Friday when they face the Bucks in Paris. This game figures to have their full attention. Hornets HC James Borrego seems confident about tonight after all the practice time his team was able to log. Orlando was favored (by six) when it lost at Golden State. That was a really bad loss considering the Warriors had lost their previous 10 games and were very short-handed. After jumping out to a 13-0 lead, the Magic were outscored 109-88 the rest of the way. It marked the third time on this trip that they were held below 100 points, nothing new considering they are the league’s lowest scoring team. They made just 29% from 3-pt range vs. Golden State as they fell to 3-7 SU L10 road games. It’s an easy decision to fade them as a favorite in this spot. 10* Charlotte |
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01-19-20 | Heat v. Spurs +1.5 | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (3:05 ET): When these teams met down in Miami on Wednesday, I felt taking the Heat was a very logical call. After all, they came into the game with the league’s best home record (17-1 SU) and were laying a pretty short number. Well, turns out I was right as Miami is now 18-1 SU at home after beating the Spurs 106-100. But they just BARELY covered and it was more of a struggle than I anticipated as the Heat actually trailed going into the 4Q. Each team has played once since then and it the same result for both with the Heat winning (at OKC) and SA losing (to Atlanta). The Spurs have made the postseason every year since 1998, which is an NBA record. But it looks like that streak may be in serious jeopardy now with the team currently not in the top eight in the Western Conference. They’re two games back of suddenly red hot Memphis and an embarrassing loss to lowly Atlanta certainly did not help matters. That loss, which was on Friday, was 121-120 as a nine-point favorite. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in the 4Q. After a loss like that, I expect the Spurs to be ready to go this afternoon. Miami is nowhere near as strong on the road where they win just 50% of the time. They’ve been outscored in their road games. While it was a 115-106 win at Oklahoma City on Friday, the Heat are just 6-10 ATS this season after scoring 115+ in their previous game. They have previously lost at Washington and New York. There was also a 20-pt loss in Orlando. The Spurs are 54-34 ATS in revenge spots the L3 seasons. 8* San Antonio |
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01-18-20 | Lakers v. Rockets -2 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:35 ET): It should be a good one for this first installment of Saturday night NBA on ABC. But a number of factors are pointing me in the direction of the Rockets. First off, while both teams come in off a loss, Houston is clearly more desperate. They’ve actually lost two in a row to fall to fifth in a very top-heavy Western Conference. Losing by 10 at home to Portland Thursday night was kind of shocking, but the Rockets are 6-1 ATS this season off a double digit loss. That makes it seem quite logical to lay the short number. The Lakers’ loss to Orlando Wednesday night was by just a single point (119-118) and ended a nine-game win streak. They hadn’t lost since X-Mas. All season, the Lakers have lost just three times by double digits and they are 22-1 SU vs. sub-.500 teams. The one loss was to Orlando as both Anthony Davis and Rajon Rondo sat. Both are officially listed as questionable for tonight. Against teams with winning records, the Lakers are a more “mortal” 11-7. This is only the second time the Rockets have lost two in a row this season. They did have a three-game losing skid in November, but otherwise have been a “safe bet” off a loss. Two straight losses as a favorite is a first, so again they’ll be the more “desperate” side tonight. This one simply means more to them. 8* Houston |
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01-18-20 | Colorado v. Arizona -6 | Top | 54-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
10* Arizona (2:30 ET): Last Sunday, we touted Arizona as our Game of the Week and they failed. It was an embarrassing loss at Oregon State where the Wildcats went down 82-65. In our analysis for that game, I made it pretty clear that Arizona was better than its record shows. In fact, I’d go so far as to call this one of the most underrated teams in the country at this point! They bounced back from Sunday’s loss w/ a nice 93-77 beatdown of Utah here in Tucson Thursday night. Now it’s time to take care of Colorado. Colorado comes in ranked #20 in the country. They are one of just two Pac 12 teams ranked in the current AP Poll (Stanford is #25 in the Coaches). But, by now, I’m sure you’ve noticed this line which would certainly seem to indicate that unranked Arizona is better in the eyes of the oddsmakers. I definitely agree with that assertion and the oddsmakers are usually better than the pollsters anyway. I’ll take things a step further and call Arizona the best team in the Pac 12 despite what the WL records may say. Arizona is 12-5 SU on the season. But before Oregon State got them on Sunday, the previous four losses had all been by five points or fewer. Three of the losses were to top 10 teams including Gonzaga & Baylor, who are currently 1-2. At home, the Wildcats are 10-1 SU and outscoring opponents by 25.6 PPG. So there’s no hesitation to lay the points here. Colorado had a nice road win Thursday, 68-61 at Arizona State, but as those who follow the Pac 12 closely will tell you, it’s the second road game of the weekend that usually gets you. The Buffaloes have dropped 20 of their last 29 “true” road games. 10* Arizona |
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01-17-20 | Dayton v. St. Louis +8 | Top | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (7:00 ET): Conference play isn’t even a month old, but across the country most teams have already experienced a loss. But in the Atlantic 10, there are still three unbeatens left, one of them the clear class of the league and that’s #13 Dayton, who is in action here. The Flyers were lucky in that leading scorer Obi Toppin’s ankle injury wasn’t as serious as originally thought. As a result, they had little difficulty defeating preseason favorite VCU on Tuesday. But that was also home. Friday, they hit the road to face a dangerous St. Louis team. St. Louis comes in riding a three-game win streak. They have not played since Saturday when they went to Richmond and picked up a nice 74-58 road win as 5.5-point underdogs. Having had the extra time off is surely an advantage heading into what will be the biggest home game of the entire conference slate. The Billikens suffered their only A-10 loss on the road, to also undefeated Duquesne, but are a strong 10-1 SU at home with the lone loss coming to a very good Seton Hall team. They won the only other time they were a home dog this season, that coming against Belmont right before Thanksgiving. I know what kind of season Toppin is having, but SLU also has a pair of standouts with Goodwin and French being the ONLY teammates nationally to both be averaging a double-double. The duo combines for 29 points and 20.5 rebounds per game. The Billikens are also a strong defensive team, which is needed to beat what has been a very efficient Dayton offense. This figures to be one of Dayton’s toughest remaining games and it’s a lot of points to lay on the road. St. Louis is already 5-2 ATS as a dog with four outright wins. Take the points. 10* St. Louis |
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01-16-20 | Nuggets v. Warriors +5 | Top | 134-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:35 ET): Coming off a 100-86 win over Charlotte last night, Denver finds itself playing the second night of a back to back here. Compounding that issue is the fact the Nuggets enter short-handed. We already know that Jamal Murray won’t play. He was already dealing with a back issue when he was taken off the court last night because of an injured ankle. Gary Harris and Paul Milsap, two other starters, also didn’t play last night and the coaching staff seems in no rush to get them back on the court. Now Golden State obviously has its own set of problems to deal with, namely a nine-game losing streak and their own bevy of injuries. But at least they are rested coming into tonight. They certainly played poorly here at home vs. Dallas on Tuesday, but I don’t believe the Nuggets are good as the Mavericks (despite what the standings may say). Three of Golden State’s last four losses have come to teams I have ranked in the top six in the league. Back to back’s have been tricky for Denver as they are just 1-5 ATS in them this season. This one, where they’re likely to be quite short-handed, looks like a real tough spot. Despite being 28-12 SU on the year, the Nuggets are overrated in my book. Despite being tied for the second best record in the Western Conference, their net efficiency rating of +2.8 is only 12th in the league. They have overachieved, just like last year. Take the points in this one. 10* Golden State |
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01-16-20 | William & Mary v. Delaware -1 | Top | 77-68 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
10* Delaware (7:00 ET): Delaware is going to be happy to be back at home Thursday night after playing three straight on the road. They lost two of those three games including 84-68 at Towson on Saturday. That leaves the Blue Hens at 2-3 SU in CAA play, but again this one is all about the return home. Delaware is 7-1 SU in Newark where it averages over 77 PPG. The Blue Hens have certainly been priced like a contender in this conference as tonight is the fifth time in six games they’ll go off as the favorite. William & Mary, infamously, is one of four original D-I schools to have never made the NCAA Tournament. They’re looking to change that in 2020 as they come into tonight as the lone unbeaten team in Colonial play. The Tribe have opened conference play with five straight wins, two of those by two points or less. Defense has been very key with W&M holding conference opponents to 63.4 PPG on 39.4% shooting. That’s an improvement from non-conference play when opponents averaged 72 PPG against the Tribe. Look for Delaware to break the streak of poor shooting William & Mary opponents. I already went over their scoring average here at home and the Blue Hens are also a strong shooting team. They also play good defense at home, holding the opposition to 64.7 PPG on 38.4% shooting. Since starting the year 9-0, the Blue Hens are just 3-6, but they’ve lost to Villanova and an OT game. William & Mary is the hot team now, but can easily “cool off” just like Delaware did. They’re not running the table in conference play. 10* Delaware |
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01-15-20 | Bradley v. Missouri State -1.5 | Top | 91-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Missouri State (8:00 ET): I would certainly say that it “speaks volumes” that Missouri State is favored here, even though the game is at home. The Bears are coming off a terrible 23-point loss to Northern Iowa here in Springfield and just 8-9 SU on the season. Bradley comes in at 12-5 SU and has covered five in a row, the last four coming in conference play. Oddsmakers have set a trap here and I’m not falling for it. Lay the short number with the home team. Let’s look at the home court advantage for a bit, shall we? Before losing to Northern Iowa, who leads the MVC, Missouri State had been 6-1 SU on this floor. Even after giving up 80 pts to the Panthers on Saturday, they are still only allowing 60.7 PPG here for the season. Bradley has won just 4 of its last 22 trips to Springfield and was held to 37 points in an embarrassing loss here LY. The Braves had been 0-4 SU in “true” road games before beating Evansville last week (were favored to do so). Bradley has gotten to take on some of the weaker teams in the Missouri Valley so far, which helps explain the ATS win streak. The one exception was when they had to face Northern Iowa on the road and sure enough they lost that game. Missouri State has lost only once as a favorite (in eight tries) all season. 10* Missouri State |
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01-15-20 | Spurs v. Heat -5 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): The Heat have lost two straight, both as favorites, but those games were played on the road. Now they return home - where they are 17-1 SU on the season - and laying a short number to a San Antonio team that is still below .500 and playing its fourth consecutive road game. There looks to be some value here as my raw numbers indicate that the spread should be closer -7.5. The Spurs still have major issues defensively and I’m going to lay the points here. Now it’s obvious that the Heat’s last loss was a total embarrassment. They lost 124-121 to the lowly Knicks, a game they were favored to win by 7.5 points. It was a shocking defeat in the sense that Miami was up 10 going into the 4Q. Usually a good defensive team, they allowed 40 pts in the final 12 minutes. The Heat shot a much higher percentage from three-point range, so really it’s a game they “should have” won. The same could be said for the three-point loss in Brooklyn that preceded it. They’ve actually shot 51% or better in four straight games. Again, the Heat are 17-1 SU at home. That’s the best home win percentage in the league. This is the first time all season that they’ve been off B2B losses. I look for the string of strong offensive efforts to continue as San Antonio is allowing 116.2 PPG on the road. Miami is actually outscoring its visitors by an average of 11.7 PPG, which is very impressive. San Antonio did just win at Toronto, but was down 13 points after three quarters. They haven’t won two straight on the road all year. 10* Miami |
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01-14-20 | Rockets -4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:30 ET): Is Memphis for real? The Grizzlies have won five straight games and now occupy the “coveted” 8th spot in the Western Conference standings. That spot is going to be up for grabs the rest of the way and I’m unconvinced the Grizz end up in it. This win streak can be chalked up to a favorable schedule that has seen them play the last three games all as home chalk. Offense has definitely been on the rise, but tonight it’s a matchup with the team that is tied for the highest scoring average in the league. The win streak ends here and you should lay the points. Houston just put up 139 points on Saturday, beating Minnesota in what was a nice bounce back from a bad loss at Oklahoma City. That loss to OKC, which came in the second night of a back to back, is the only time the Rockets have been beaten over the L5 games. A win here could have them in second place in the West by night’s end. Earlier in the year, the Rockets came to Memphis and covered as six-point favorites thanks to a massive edge in three-point shooting. The Grizzlies are just 7-12 SU vs. teams that have winning records this year. They have only two such wins over the past month. This is pretty clearly the best they’ve played all year. Because of that we’re able to get a good price on Houston, who is 6-1 ATS when taking the court this season on exactly two days rest. As good as Memphis has been at the offensive end recently, Houston is more consistent at that end and let’s not discount that the Grizzlies are 27th overall in PPG allowed. 10* Houston |
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01-14-20 | VCU +8 v. Dayton | Top | 65-79 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* VCU (8:00 ET): #13 Dayton is 14-2 SU with its two losses (Kansas, Colorado) both coming in overtime. Being unbeaten in regulation is quite the claim to be able to make at this point of the season. The Flyers are very much a legit threat on a national level as they are #6 in the KenPom rankings and I’ve got them #9 in my own power ratings. But if there is one concern I have, it’s that they are only 43rd in defensive efficiency. Tonight, they are playing the only A-10 team that’s higher in that important metric and that could mean upset. Take the points. Certainly you’re familiar with the brand of basketball VCU likes to play. The full court pressure, termed “Havoc” by former HC Shaka Smart, is once again yielding solid results as the Rams are giving up only 60.9 PPG on the year. But it hasn’t translated at the betting window as VCU is an ugly 4-12 ATS on the year and just lost outright at home to Rhode Island Saturday, 65-56 as 8.5-pt chalk. But offense was the problem in that game as the Rams shot a woeful 31.3% overall. They'll absolutely shoot better tonight. Dayton is undefeated at home (9-0), but this is going to be a test. The Flyers do rank #3 nationally in offensive efficiency, but they also haven’t faced a good team since the loss to Colorado. Compounding matters, leading scorer Obi Toppin sprained his ankle in Saturday’s win over UMass and likely will miss tonight’s game. Even if Toppin can go, the play stands. Against a team that plays defense like this, not having your leading scorer at 100 percent is hardly ideal. 10* VCU |
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01-13-20 | Magic v. Kings -2 | Top | 114-112 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Orlando has played well over its last six games, winning four (SU) and covering five. But they are off a 98-94 loss at Phoenix. As is obvious from the final score, offense was an issue Saturday night for the Magic. That’s something that has plagued them all season as they come into tonight ranked dead last in the league in points per game with 103.5. Because of the fact their defensive numbers slip on the road, I’m fading them here. The Kings are also off a loss, but considering they faced Milwaukee their last time out, what else would you expect? The Kings gave up 127 points, but that was to the highest scoring team in the league. They actually led in the third quarter. Interestingly enough, Sacramento also just won at Phoenix (114-103), something that Orlando just failed to do, so that’s a mark in their favor. The Kings had won three of four going into the Milwaukee game, the lone loss coming by 2 pts. Sacramento has won and covered all four meetings with Orlando the past two seasons. I expect them to simply “outscore” the Magic in this one. While the Magic have been able to hold three straight opponents below 100 pts, that’s happened to the Kings only two times since Dec 4. Both teams are banged up right now, but Sacramento needs this one more as they are struggling to remain relevant in the Western Conference. 8* Sacramento |
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01-12-20 | Arizona -4.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 65-82 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
10* Arizona (10:00 ET): Oregon State has definitely improved. But they are not yet deserving of this price range, even at home, against the class of the Pac 12. While these teams have matching 11-4 SU records, not all records are created equally. Three of Arizona’s losses have been to top 10 teams. All four have been by five points or less. While they are in danger of falling out of the polls, I very much consider the Wildcats to be a top 10 caliber team. I certainly don’t see them losing another game and will lay this short number tonight. All four Arizona losses have come in their last six games. Similarly, three of Oregon State’s four losses this year have been in their last five games. The Beavers have lost to some quality teams, but none of them were the same caliber of the teams that have beaten Arizona. Something else worth noting is they lost here at home Thursday to an Arizona State team that Arizona beat by 28. So that’s another reason not to judge these identical records the same. OSU has lost 36 of the last 44 times they’ve faced Arizona. Thursday in Eugene, Arizona led Oregon by six points with two minutes left in regulation. They failed to protect the lead and lost in overtime. So they should be in an ornery mood here. Two of their other losses were to Baylor and Gonzaga, both of whom will be in the top three of next week’s rankings. Arizona is better at both ends of the floor than Oregon State, especially defensively. The Beavers don’t even rank in the top 100 nationally in defensive efficiency. 10* Arizona |
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01-11-20 | UNLV v. Wyoming +7 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10* Wyoming (7:00 ET): Second home game in four nights for the Cowboys, who just hosted undefeated San Diego State on Wednesday. Predictably, the Pokes came out on the short end of that one, although it ended up being slightly more lopsided than I had anticipated. I took Wyoming +17.5 and they lost by 20. Laramie remains a tough place to play though (because of the elevation) and you should look for the home team to play a lot better Saturday when they host UNLV. Take the points. UNLV also comes in off a loss, theirs to Boise State by seven. They lost 73-66 as 5.5-point road underdogs. That loss snapped a four-game win streak, the entirety of which came in Vegas. The Rebels haven’t been too good away from home this year, losing five of six games and they’ve been outscored by double digits. Thus I wouldn’t be too confident laying points with this team here, especially with their starting point guard still injured. Wyoming has lost three in a row to fall to 5-12 SU. It’s been nearly two months since they were favored to win a game. They've lost three straight overall and certainly don’t want to lose two in a row at home. This is a desperate team right now. There are issues offensively, but it’s not like UNLV can score all that much either. This Saturday night game in the Mountain West has all the makings of a low-scoring slugfest where you'll want to be getting points. 10* Wyoming |
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01-11-20 | Drexel +3.5 v. James Madison | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
8* Drexel (4:00 ET): While I don’t see either of these teams competing for a CAA Championship, I am seeing some value with the team getting points in this Saturday matchup. It’s actually a fade on the favorite, James Madison, a team I don’t approve of laying points in most circumstances. The Dukes, losers of four of five, won the last two times they’ve been chalk. But the last cover, at UNC Wilmington, was by a single point. Three of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by two points. Drexel did not have a good showing Thursday at Towson. They lost 89-73. Full disclosure - I was the Dragons that night. What I did not anticipate was them allowing Towson to shoot a blistering 56.9% from the floor. Drexel had won its two previous games, admittedly both at home, by allowing just 55 and 66 points. The good news is that they are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts in the last game. James Madison is now 1-4 SU in conference play after an 80-76 loss to Delaware Thursday night. That was a home game and the Dukes did lead at halftime. They were still up in the final minute, which is when they allowed a GW three-pointer. The loss dropped JMU to 1-7 ATS this year vs. winning teams. Drexel has a 9-8 SU record. I have the Dragons rated as the slightly better team, so I’ll take the points. 8* Drexel |
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01-10-20 | Butler v. Providence +2.5 | Top | 70-58 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
10* Providence (9:00 ET): It’s always tricky laying points on the road, even when you’re a top 10 team like Butler that’s 14-1 SU. But while the Bulldogs are my pick to win the Big East this year, I do feel they are currently a bit overrated at #6 in the polls. This is a tricky spot Friday night at Providence as the Friars have won four straight, all against good teams. Providence won all three games against Butler LY and is 11-3 ATS the L14 meetings (5-1 here at home). Take the points. Those last four Providence victories have come against Texas, Georgetown, DePaul and Marquette. The last two were both by one point but also were both road games. Now they get to come back home where they’ve won seven of eight this season, the only loss coming against Penn during what was a late November swoon. Texas lost by 22 here while Georgetown lost by 16. With four wins by four points or less, it may “feel” like Providence is overachieving, but the reality is that this is just the fourth game they’ve been an underdog. Butler’s only loss was by one point (53-52 at Baylor) and they are 4th nationally in points per game allowed. However, they’ve had a recent close call as well, winning by only two at St. John’s. Providence’s defense improves exponentially here at home as they give up just 59.6 PPG. Butler has gotten a bit lucky with their last two opponents (SJU, Creighton) both shooting very poorly from three-point range. Providence shoots 39.2% at home from behind the arc. 10* Providence |
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01-09-20 | BYU v. St. Mary's -3 | Top | 84-87 | Push | 0 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
8* St. Mary's (11:00 ET): As per usual, Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference this year. And as per usual, these two schools are battling it out to determine who's second best. BYU comes in riding a six-game win streak and most of those wins have been VERY convincing. Saturday's 63-38 win over Loyola Marymount was the 4th time during the win streak that they prevailed by at least 25 points. Impressive as that streak is, none of the wins have come in "true" road games. St. Mary's is off a very different result here. They were upset, on the road, by Pacific 107-99 as 8.5-pt chalk. As you might have guessed from that final score, it was not a 40 minute game. In fact, it went to FOUR overtimes. Tough loss for the Gaels, who not only had their own five-game win streak snapped, but also blew an eight-point lead with 4:28 to go in regulation. Prior to that, SMU's only two losses were to Dayton (top 15 team) and to Winthrop (by two). I have them bouncing back tonight. These WCC rivals do seem fairly even on paper, but I have to go back to BYU's lack of "true" road games. They've played only three and lost two. The only win was by a single point. St. Mary's is 7-1 SU at home, outscoring their opponents by 14.1 PPG. Last year in this building, they destroyed BYU by 22 points. Neither team shot well their last game. Back in their own gym, St. Mary's is the more likely of the two to bounce back in that department. This is a team that's won 22 of its last 28 games overall. 8* St. Mary's |
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01-09-20 | Blazers v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The NBA's Western Conference features seven teams that are at least five games over .500. All seven should feel pretty safe when it comes to making the playoffs. As for who gets the 8th spot, that's anybody's guess at this point. You would think that a Portland team that made the Conference Finals a season ago would certainly be among that top seven, but they are not. Even after winning on Tuesday, the Blazers are still six games below .500 on the year. Minnesota is right behind them at 14-22, two back in the win column. The T'wolves had been playing better lately, winning three of four, but that was before running into Memphis on Tuesday and losing 119-112 as a 4.5-point dog. The strangest thing about this T'wolves season is how poorly they've played here at home. They are only 5-11 SU at the Target Center and scoring less than they do on the road. Of course, it hasn't helped that Karl-Anthony Towns has missed so much time. Still, even without Towns, the T'wolves were up eight with just eight minutes to go at Memphis Tuesday night. It was the exact opposite for Portland, who led Toronto for all of 18 seconds Tuesday, yet came out ahead 101-99. Let's use those misleading results to our advantage here as the Blazers should NOT be favored on the road here. Prior to sneaking by the Raptors, Portland had gone 1-6 SU/ATS its L7 games, the lone win coming against a bad (and banged up)Washington team. The Blazers have a losing road record (8-13 SU to boot). 10* Minnesota |
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01-09-20 | Drexel +4.5 v. Towson | Top | 73-89 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
8* Drexel (6:00 ET): A bit of an early start time in the Colonial as two teams looking to build off wins meet. Drexel, who is the underdog, has actually won two straight and is 4-1 its last 5 games overall. Meanwhile, Towson snapped a three-game losing streak by beating UNC Wilmington on the road Saturday. A pretty compelling case could be made that UNC Wilmington is the weakest team in the CAA this year, so I'm not about to change my view here on the hosts, who are laying too many points. Drexel won its last game as an underdog, beating Delaware 61-55. Now that was at home. But it was also last Friday, meaning they've had one additional day to prepare for this game, compared to Towson. The Dragons are 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when having five or six days to prepare. Admittedly, "true" road games have not gone all that well for them so far, but they were able to stick within five at both Temple & Rutgers. That's good enough for me. Towson isn't Temple or Rutgers. They, like Drexel, are just a middle of the road CAA team. The Tigers are just 1-5 ATS vs. teams with winning records and Drexel does come in at 9-7 SU overall. Towson is just 7-9 SU including only 3-3 here at home. It was actually just a one-point game in the final minute against UNC Wilmington on Saturday. The Tigers have not won a game by more than seven points since December 4th. They are hardly an ideal candidate to take as a favorite. 8* Drexel |
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01-08-20 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +17 | Top | 72-52 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
8* Wyoming (9:00 ET): There are just two teams left without a loss and both are in action Wednesday night. But while #5 Auburn (13-0) gets to play at home, #7 San Diego State (15-0) has to travel to Laramie to face Wyoming and lay a big number to boot. I won't sit here and tell you Wyoming is a great team because they certainly aren't. But Laramie is a tough place to play and you can obviously expect the home team to play inspired basketball tonight. Take the points. Another reason to fade SDSU here is that they are off one of their biggest wins of the season, 77-68 at Utah State, who figures to be the Aztecs' closest competition this year in the Mountain West. That was Saturday and now the Aztecs are hitting the road again. This is the first time all year that they will play B2B "true" road games. They've covered the previous four road games and are also 2-0 SU at neutral sites, but I have to say that - overall - the schedule has not been that challenging for SDSU. Wyoming's 2020 has started with consecutive losses, but both came on the road. This is a team that may only be 2-8 SU its last 10 games, with one of those wins coming in OT and the other against a non-DI team. But I don't see them being blown out on their home floor this evening. This a really tough set of B2B road games for SDSU with both played at high elevation. Nathan Mensah (respiratory issue) may again have to sit for them. 8* Wyoming |
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01-08-20 | Nuggets v. Mavs -3 | Top | 107-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* Dallas (7:35 ET): It's a very thin line between second and sixth place in the NBA's Western Conference right now, which is where these teams are respectively. Though Denver may be higher in the standings, I've got Dallas rated as the better team as they've posted both a better YTD point differential (+7.4 vs. +4.0) and a better net efficiency rating (+6.8 vs. +2.9). Both of those numbers indicate that tonight's spread should be at least several points higher and I agree, so lay the short number with the Mavericks. Both in terms of point differential and net efficiency rating, the Mavs rank 4th best in the entire league. So how are they only in 6th place in their own conference? That's a good question. Going 0-3 in OT games is part of it, plus it's been a pretty pedestrian stretch the last month with the team going just 7-7 SU its L14 games and winning B2B times only once. But I expect them to start to go on a run now. Certainly the numbers indicate they will. Luka Doncic is off yet another big game Monday as the Mavs beat Chicago 118-110 here at home. While Dallas gets a six-game homestand to start 2020, Denver is wrapping up a five-game road trip tonight. It's been an "up and down" trip so far as they're 2-2 SU with a loss to the lowly Wizards. They bounced back from that Monday against Atlanta, but this is a tough spot for the Nuggets as they may not have much left in the tank playing a fifth road game in nine days. Defense hasn't been great of late and no team averages more points per possession than Dallas does. The Nuggets have surrendered at least 115 points in five straight games. Back in October, the Mavs went to Denver and won 109-106. 10* Dallas |
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01-08-20 | Raptors -3.5 v. Hornets | Top | 112-110 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Raptors are definitely banged up right now, but they should have won last night's home game vs. Portland. They led for all but 18 seconds yet a Carmelo Anthony GW jumper resulted in a 101-99 loss as 2.5-pt favorites. Tonight, the reigning NBA Champs take their act to Charlotte to face a Hornets team they crushed earlier in the year by 36 points. While that was when they were closer to full strength, I'm still expecting a win here. Lay a number that's far too short. At 15-24 SU on the year, no one is going to make the claim that Charlotte is a good team. But the reality is they're actually pretty bad. They've been outscored by 6.6 points per game so far and have a net efficiency rating of -6.1, both of which place them among the bottom five teams in the league! Even in an Eastern Conference that has the three worst teams in the league (NY, Cleveland & Atlanta), the Hornets should be further down the standings. They lost by 11 at home to an undermanned Indiana side Monday night, dropping them to 2-13 SU vs. .500 or better teams this season. The Raptors are 19-1 SU vs. teams that have losing records, that one loss being last night. It was just the fourth time all year they lost as a favorite. But they are a perfect 6-0 SU as a road favorite. Even with multiple starters missing, Toronto has been able to hold its last six opponents all to 102 pts or fewer. The last time this team was off a loss (Saturday), I backed them at Brooklyn and they delivered an impressive 122-101 win. 8* Toronto |
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01-07-20 | Virginia Tech v. Syracuse -4.5 | Top | 67-63 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
8* Syracuse (9:00 ET): Both teams are off pretty crushing defeats, but they were also very different kinds of losses. Virginia Tech was actually thinking upset when they traveled to face rival Virginia on Saturday. Instead, they got absolutely blasted by the Hoos, losing 65-39! Meanwhile, Syracuse lost by 1 (88-87) to Notre Dame here in the Carrier Dome as they allowed 15 made three-pointers. When comparing losses, I think Va Tech is going to struggle more to get over theirs. Lay the points. Thinking you are going to pull a big upset and then losing by 26 is a cold dose of reality for the Hokies. Having to play a second road game in four nights probably isn't the way to get over it either. Since starting 6-0 with a shocking upset of Michigan State, the Hokies are just 4-4 SU the L8 games. Saturday was the first "true" road game since the season opener. Maybe we're starting to see why this team was picked low in the ACC preseason rankings. Syracuse couldn't get a rebound to save its life in the 2H vs. Notre Dame. Good for them then that Va Tech isn't a great rebounding team either. I don't see the Orange dropping B2B home games to a team they've never lost to here at the Carrier Dome. While Va Tech has covered in five of its six visits, they're usually getting a lot more points than this. The Cuse still is allowing just 61.3 PPG at home, so look for a bounce back effort defensively after getting torched by ND's shooters on Saturday. 8* Syracuse |
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01-07-20 | Toledo +4.5 v. Kent State | Top | 77-84 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
8* Toledo (7:00 ET): I talked a little bit about the MAC over the weekend when I cashed an outright win w/ Northern Illinois at Buffalo. This is very much a wide open conference and the two teams here both think they can win it. But for Toledo, they've had a big time problem covering spreads as its a six-game ATS losing skid coming into Tuesday, not to mention four consecutive SU losses as well. Tonight they face a Kent State team that couldn't have played better in its last game. I'm taking the points with the desperate road underdog. Toledo opened conference play with a four-point loss to Ball State on Friday. That was a road game and the Rockets just couldn't get over the hump on a poor shooting night. It's actually been a series of poor shooting efforts as they've connected on only 38.0% of their FG attempts the L5 games. That's pretty shocking for a team that averages 76.9 PPG. My guess is we're going to see them get back on track offensively tonight. Meanwhile, Kent State responded nicely from a blowout loss to Mississippi State, beating Bowling Green on Friday by a score of 79-61. They were 2.5-pt road underdogs, but shot 50% and led by as many as 22 points. Like I said earlier, they probably could not have played any better. But now they've got to follow that performance against a stronger opponent. The Golden Flashes are a perfect 7-0 SU at home, but they're a little lucky to be 11-3 SU overall as they've won twice in overtime and also have a one-point win at Wright State. This one reeks of an "upset" in the making. 8* Toledo |
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01-07-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ohio -5 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Ohio (7:00 ET): Another MAC game. Ohio U has fallen to 8-6 SU after dropping three of its last four games. One was to Purdue, which is excusable even at home, but the last two losses both came as favorites. The last one, which took place Saturday, saw the Bobcats lose as 1-pt favorites at Western Michigan, 77-65. That was preceded by a poor effort here in Athens, a 63-55 loss to Campbell as eight-point chalk. I don't see this team losing a third in a row. Lay the short price. Eastern Michigan is one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country. They currently rank 330th in efficiency out of 353 D-I schools. Three times in the last four games the Eagles have been held below 50 points! Two of those were on the road, right before the New Year, at Michigan State and at UNLV. Not like they were gonna win either of those games, but poor efforts nonetheless. So was Saturday's 24-point home loss to Akron. EMU shot just 27.1% in that one. You just can't trust a team that's this bad offensively on the road. Ohio is averaging a healthy 76.9 PPG at home, so they should win this one going away. They too are off a couple of bad shooting games, but unlike with Eastern Michigan, there really hasn't been a consistent pattern of that happening. The road team has won the L4 meetings. Time for that to change. Eastern Michigan has not covered any of its last four chances as an underdog. 8* Ohio |
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01-06-20 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State +1.5 | Top | 55-41 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): West Virginia had been doing quite well for itself recently, but figures to drop slightly when the new rankings come out later today as they lost at Kansas Saturday. While there's no shame in that, especially by only a seven-point margin, the Mountaineers nevertheless find themselves in a tough spot Monday as they again have to hit the road, this time heading to Stillwater. They've lost three in a row to the Cowboys, including twice last year. Classic home dog spot. Take the points. Oklahoma State is also off a loss here, although theirs was far more embarrassing as they went down to Lubbock and got crushed by Texas Tech, 85-50 (only trailed by 6 at halftime). As you can tell from that final score, it was a rough shooting night for the Pokes as they made only 28.8% of their field goal attempts including an abhorrent 6 of 25 from two-point range! Needless to say, a return home will provide automatic improvement in the shooting department. OSU is also 15-9 ATS off a conference loss the previous two years. WVU didn't shoot well in its last game either, getting held to 32.2% by Kansas. The Mountaineers haven't been a good road team in recent years, dropping 17 of 24 outright and that even includes neutral site games. Their only "true" road win this year came at Youngstown State, who is terrible, and they failed to cover that game as 12.5-pt chalk. It's been an impressive 11-2 SU start out of Morgantown, but the team has also been beating up on some weak competition. Playing a second straight road game after facing Ohio State and Kansas is rough. 8* Oklahoma State |
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01-05-20 | Northwestern v. Minnesota -8.5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:30 ET): The Big 10 is absolutely loaded this year. We're talking eight teams in the top 24 of the KenPom rankings and 12 in the top 44! That would leave only two outliers and one of them is in play here as it's Northwestern traveling to Minnesota Sunday night. The Wildcats are most definitely the second worst team in the conference and the gap between them and the worst team (Nebraska) is actually smaller than the gap between N'western and the top 12 teams. So I'm laying the points in this one. Despite the gap in talent here, the line has actually come DOWN, which surprises me. Perhaps bettors are looking at the fact that Minnesota is just three days removed from a double overtime loss to Purdue. Losing that game is obviously disappointing for the Gophers, but they still covered (were +7) against a really good team. It was their 4th consecutive ATS win going back to last month's big upset of then undefeated Ohio State. While Minnesota has been a dog in four of its last five games, they are 5-1 ATS as favorites this season as well. Northwestern, who has been off since 12/29, is on a three-game losing streak. All three losses were close (decided by a total of 11 pts) with the most recent being a 67-66 loss to Hartford as 16-point favorites. While close, that's a BAD loss. The previous two years have seen the Wildcats go just 2-9 ATS when off 3 or more consecutive losses. They're also 2-5 SU/ATS when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest. So this really isn't a great spot for them. I see Northwestern struggling to score here, much the same way they did at Purdue (only 44 pts) as Minnesota allows only 62.5 PPG at home. 10* Minnesota |
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01-04-20 | Raptors +1 v. Nets | Top | 121-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
10* Toronto (6:05 ET): Though they've lost 16 of the last 17 meetings with the Raptors, the Nets are likely to come into this game irrationally confident due to the fact they are getting Caris LeVert back in the lineup. LeVert, along w/ Kyrie Irving, has missed substantial time due to injury (thumb surgery). But just how effective can he be in his first game back, following an almost two month absence? Brooklyn is also on a season-worst four game losing streak right now. The wrong team is favored here. While just how effective LeVert will be tonight can certainly be debated, one thing is for certain. Toronto is going to shoot a lot better than it did in an ugly 84-76 loss at Miami Thursday night. That loss, which marked the first time in three years the Raptors were held below 80 points, saw them run into a tricky Heat zone defense and they shot a woeful 6 of 42 from three-point range. In addition to simple progression to the mean, another reason the Raptors' offense should improve tremendously in this game is the fact Brooklyn has allowed 120+ pts in B2B games for the first time all season. While Brooklyn is getting back one of its big stars, Toronto is still waiting on Pascal Siakam to come back. But they've been dealing with key players being in and out of the lineup all season and have still managed a 23-12 SU record. Defensively, there are no issues for the defending champs as they've held four straight opponents under 100 pts (wow!) and allow only 102.1 PPG for the season on the road. They are 13-1 SU vs. sub.-500 teams (Nets are 16-17 SU) and covered both times after they previously held their last opponent below 90 pts. 10* Toronto |
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01-04-20 | Weber State v. Northern Arizona -3.5 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
8* Northern Arizona (6:00 ET): All of a sudden, Northern Arizona has lost three in a row. But all three games were on the road and two of the losses came by two points. The Lumberjacks return to Flagstaff Saturday for this evening matchup with Big Sky rival Weber State. NAU has been a solid team at the betting window thus far, going 6-3 ATS, and they've got some big time revenge on the mind here as they've lost all four matchups with Weber State the L2 seasons (also 0-4 ATS). Weber State was very close to entering this game on its own three-game losing skid. But after opening conference play with a 79-77 home loss to Eastern Washington, the Wildcats were able to sneak by Idaho on Monday, 69-68. But they did not cover as 9-point chalk. This will be Weber State's first conference away game and so far the road has been unkind as they are 1-6 SU and averaging just 58.6 PPG outside of Ogden. This is actually one of the longer road trips for most Big Sky teams. Admittedly, Northern Arizona isn't too used to being the favorite. It's been the case just ONE time in that 6-3 ATS start. Sure enough, they happened to play arguably their worst game of the season, losing 85-66 here at home to Cal Davis. But I don't see history repeating itself Saturday. The Lumberjacks average 85 PPG at home and are also a better defensive team than Weber State as they allow just 61.2 PPG in Flagstaff. Weber State has just TWO wins over D-I opponents so far and they've come by a total of six points. 8* Northern Arizona |
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01-04-20 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Buffalo | Top | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
8* Northern Illinois (2:00 ET): Northern Illinois lost its last game, 85-84 to Green Bay, as a 6.5-point home favorite. They've had plenty of time to stew over that defeat as it took place all the way back on December 21st. Now they'll hit the road for the MAC opener, taking on perennial conference heavyweight Buffalo. But in addition to being motivated by that outright loss they suffered two weeks ago, the Huskies won't be intimidated here. They've upset the Bulls each of the last two times they've faced them! Take the points. This Buffalo team is not as strong as those of the last couple years. Former HC Nate Oats bolted for Alabama after guiding the program to a 32-4 SU record LY and its second straight Round of 32 appearance in the NCAA Tournament. Unless the Bulls run the table, they won't match LY's WL record as they enter this game at 9-4 SU. They did hand an overrated DePaul team its 1st loss back in December and they can score (80.8 PPG). But I don't consider this the favorite to win the MAC this year. In fact, I currently have four teams in the conference rated better. Northern Illinois isn't one of those four, but this is too many points for Buffalo to be laying in this spot. The Huskies were in a tough spot for that home loss to Green Bay as they were coming off four consecutive road games, two of them out on the West Coast. It was their first time back in DeKalb in nearly a month. While they're back on the road today, they covered the last two times they were a dog and those were against better teams (St. Mary's, Pitt). The Huskies allow fewer PPG than Buffalo does, by a pretty substantial margin (63.5 vs. 76.2). 8* Northern Illinois |
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01-04-20 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Virginia | Top | 39-65 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
8* Virginia Tech (2:00 ET): How appropriate I would be stepping out for this rivalry game! The annual battle for the Commonwealth Cup was my 10* Game of the Year in College Football and I had Virginia has they ended a frustrating 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with an outright upset. On the basketball court, however, the in-state rivalry has been owned by the Hoos. True to form, I'll be backing the underdog in this one as I feel Virginia is living off its reputation from the last several years. This team is nowhere near as good as it was the last two years. Take the points. One year after suffering the humiliation of being the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 in the NCAA Tournament, Virginia bounced back to win the National Championship. This is a program that we've been consistently high on throughout Tony Bennett's tenure. Once again, the Cavaliers are leading the country in points allowed (47.3 per game). But they are pretty bad offensively, ranking an ugly 178th in efficiency. Honestly, even at 10-2 SU, I'm not sure they deserved to be ranked in the top 25. The Cavs have yet to score more than 65 in a game this season, so they're not a team I'd be confident betting as a favorite - even with that defense. Sure enough, they are 3-8 ATS in that role so far this season. After covering the first two games of the season, UVA is just 1-9 ATS its L10 overall. Virginia Tech is 10-3 SU and comes in riding a four-game win streak. While they've played just one "true" road game so far (won it, at Clemson), you can't say the Hokies aren't battle tested. They beat Michigan State in Maui (71-66 as 13-point dogs) and have also faced Duke. Since losing to the Blue Devils, Va Tech has given up an average of just 49 PPG in its 4-game win streak. In what figures to be a low-scoring game, grabbing the points seems like the right move. Plus, Va Tech is the much better three-point shooting team here. 8* Virginia Tech |
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01-02-20 | Montana v. Southern Utah -3.5 | Top | 60-58 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Southern Utah (9:00 ET): We head out to Big Sky country for this one and I think Southern Utah is ready to snap its losing streak to Montana. Since joining the Big Sky Conference, Southern Utah has NEVER beaten Montana, losing all 12 head to head matchups. They haven't had much luck at the betting window in those games either, failing to cover seven in a row (all double digit losses). Yet it speaks volumes that the Thunderbirds come in as the favorites this time around (never happened before) and deservedly so. Lay the short number. Another streak on the line here is Montana's six-game conference win streak. They haven't lost a Big Sky game since March 7th of last year when they were upset by Portland State. But this year's Golden Grizzlies simply aren't as good as past editions. Though they've opened 2-0 SU in conference play, those wins were at home and close. They are 0-6 SU on the road so far, scoring only 59.5 PPG. They are also just 1-5 ATS as underdogs, losing all six games outright. They are just 3-15 SU their L18 times as a dog. Southern Utah is the better team here. The Thunderbirds rank 2nd in the Big Sky in offensive rebound rate. They have also won four in a row here in Cedar City where they are averaging 92.8 PPG. The key here is to get to 73 points, very doable, as Montana has yet to win a game when allowing that many. The Golden Grizzlies have three players who have accounted for 81% of all points the L5 games. That's not a lot of balance. This is SUU's "time to shine." 10* Southern Utah. |
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01-02-20 | Raptors +6 v. Heat | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): Oddsmakers seem to be doubting the Raptors in this matchup of top Eastern Conference teams. The defending NBA Champs have certainly proven that they are still going to be a force despite losing Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. I know they've been dogged by injuries more than just about any team besides Golden State (oh, the irony!) but even w/o Pascal Siakam the Raptors were able to go to Boston recently and win by 16. I'll take the points in this revenge spot. Miami had a five-game winning streak going into their final contest of 2019. But four of those five wins had been by four points or less, including three straight by a total of five pts. Those close calls caught up with them in Washington where they suffered a shocking outright loss as 14-point favorites to a severely undermanned Wizards team. Thus, the Heat have now failed to cover four in a row. While they are 15-1 SU at home, I don't buy that they should be laying more than three points to this particular opponent. As alluded to above, this is a revenge game for the Raptors. Almost exactly one month ago, they lost at home to the Heat 121-110 as 5.5-point favorites. That was Kyle Lowry's first game back from his injury and he shot terribly, missing all 11 three-point attempts in addition to his first 11 shots overall. That won't happen again. The Raptors swept the season series from the Heat last year. While Miami is coming off a terrible defensive effort (gave up a 42-point quarter), Toronto has held three straight opponents below 100 points. That makes them attractive as the underdog. 8* Toronto |
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01-02-20 | James Madison v. NC-Wilmington +3.5 | Top | 64-60 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
8* UNC Wilmington (6:30 ET): A pretty ugly matchup to ring in the New Year with, out of the Colonial. Both teams are already 0-2 in conference play. James Madison started by losing two straight at home, to Hofstra by six and to Northeastern by 16. UNC Wilmington's two CAA defeats both came on the road as they lost by 14 at Delaware and by five at Drexel. Overall, the Seahawks have now lost seven in a row. But it isn't often JMU is favored, especially on the road. I'll take the points. UNC Wilmington did recently have team assist leader Kai Toews bolt the program. That was right before conference play began. I know he ws the starting point guard. But considering the Seahawks had lost five in a row with Toews on the floor, I don't think he'll be all that missed. Look for UNCW to get back to scoring more in this game as James Madison is allowing 76.5 PPG. I know little has gone right for this team so far, but this is a rare time the Seahawks should feel confident that they can win. These teams also have a history of close games. Three of the last four meetings were decided by three points or less. The road team won both times last season, but JMU has yet to be a road favorite at all this season. In fact, the Dukes have been favored in only five games total. Their defensive issues are pretty glaring as five of their last seven opponents have gone for at least 82 points. JMU also is only shooting 36.9% away from home. 8* UNC Wilmington |
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01-01-20 | Utah State -7 v. UNLV | Top | 53-70 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
8* Utah State (11:00 ET): So a big key here is that Aggies' leading scorer Sam Merrill has been upgraded to probable. The last game Merrill played saw Utah State upset Florida down in Miami, 65-62, led by his 21 points. But even without him, Utah State was able to put 129 points on the board Saturday, albeit against Eastern Oregon. This remains a very underrated team, one that's going to compete with still undefeated San Diego State for Mountain West Conference supremacy. Even if Merrill doesn't play tonight, we'll still lay the short number tonight in Vegas. UNLV is only 6-8 SU and that's after winning their last two games. Both were here at home as they rolled to double digit victories against Eastern Michigan and Robert Morris. But Utah State is a team that the Rebels have struggled to deal with the last couple seasons. It's an 0-3 SU/ATS record the L3 meetings and it's tough to see this one going any better. The Rebels are 2-7 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records and they're going to struggle to score here vs. a team that allows a FG% of just 38.2 on the year. Offensively, USU is 18th in the country at 81.8 PPG. The last game, where they blitzed a NAIA school, obviously helped to inflate that scoring average. But they had plenty of big scoring nights prior to that and remember they were without Merrill vs. Eastern Oregon. I seem to be a bit higher on the Aggies than the marketplace is. Perhaps the reason we're getting such a good number on USU is because prior to them upsetting Florida, they'd failed to cover six in a row. But whatever the reason for the short spread, I'm laying it. 8* Utah State |
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12-31-19 | Temple -2 v. UCF | Top | 62-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
8* Temple (2:00 ET): Under 1st year HC Aaron McKie, Temple has started 8-3. The Owls just beat a Rider team that had previously won five in a row and did so fairly convincingly, winning 77-68 as a 9-point favorite. That was a nice bounce back for McKie's team, which had just lost to Miami FL by one point (78-77) four days earlier. Something notable about this group is that it ranks #24 in the country in defensive efficiency as its opponents are shooting only 36.2% for the year. UCF also suffered only three losses in non-conference play. Two of them were by just a single point, the most recent coming 10 days ago when they fell 53-52 at Oklahoma. The Knights are 9-3 SU overall and 5-1 ATS vs. teams with winning record. They were nine-point underdogs to the Sooners, so that was an easy cover despite them shooting just 31.3% from the field. Still, I don't feel UCF is in Temple's same class as they are really lacking in signature wins and aren't as strong at either end of the floor. Safe to say, oddsmakers made a mistake not opening Temple as a larger favorite. Even though UCF has suffered just one loss by more than one point, look for them to struggle to score against the strong Temple defense today. The Owls already have "true" road wins over LaSalle, USC and Texas A&M and can also say they hung tough on a neutral court vs. Maryland. McKie inherited a pretty experienced team and we saw what they were capable of in that 27-point beatdown of St. Joe's earlier this month. 8* Temple |
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12-30-19 | Seton Hall -1 v. DePaul | Top | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
10* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): DePaul has lost only one game this year, but they're a team I don't put much stock in. Now that Big East play is about to begin, expect the Blue Demons' 12-1 SU record to take a major hit. I count at least seven teams in the conference that I rate higher than DePaul right now. One of them is Seton Hall, who comes to Chicago tonight. The Pirates have been without their best player, Myles Powell (21.2 PPG), due to a concussion. But there seems to be some positive news on that situation as Powell could play tonight. Whether or not he does, take the Pirates. Seton Hall has already proven that they can win without Powell as they went to Maryland and handed the Terps their first loss of the year. I think it speaks volumes that Seton Hall isn't an underdog here, even with Powell's uncertain status. With Powell, they are a top 25 team in my view. After the upset of Maryland, things did get a bit "dicey" for a half against Prairie View A&M last week. But they wound up shooting 57.6% in the second half and still won by 20 points. The official report on Powell is that he "definitely" will be back for the Georgetown game on Friday. He has practiced the L2 days. Again, with or without him, Seton Hall is the call here. DePaul has had plenty of close wins this season, the most recent coming against Northwestern nine days ago. But they've failed to cover three of the last four games including their only SU, which was here at home to Buffalo. Seton Hall has double revenge here for a pair of losses LY that were by a combined five points. They were favored in both games. Seton Hall shows who's best! 10* Seton Hall |
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12-28-19 | Nets +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 98-108 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (8:05 ET): Both teams are off results they'd just as soon forget. The Rockets lost on X-Mas Day to the suddenly resurgent Warriors, 116-104, as an 11.5-point favorite. The following night saw the Nets lost at home to the sorry Knicks, 94-82 as seven-point chalk. Something will have to give here as both teams are perfect ATS on the year when coming off a DD loss. Brooklyn is 5-0 after losing by 10 or more while Houston is 3-0 vs. the number. I'm taking the points, even though the Nets remain short-handed. Kyrie Irving isn't even accompanying the team on this road trip and Caris LeVert is still out as well, even though he's reportedly "getting closer" to returning. Spencer Dinwiddie (who has been a godsend for this team amidst all the absences) said it best when he said it was a case of "too mugh egg nog" for the Nets Thursday night. They shot 26.9% from the field, which was the lowest FG% by any NBA team in almost seven years. Their eight two-point field goals were the fewest made in a game since 1950. Needless to say, the Nets are going to shoot a whole heck of a lot better tonight. Houston isn't any "great shakes" defensively as they are a mediocre 16th in efficiency. That's three spots lower than Brooklyn. Obviously, the Rockets offense is a concern for the Nets. But Houston, factoring out James Harden, was also victimized by poor shooting in the last game. They made only 37.0% against the Warriors w/ players not named "Harden" combining to miss 54 of 82 attempts. While the Rockets' shooting figures to improve just like the Nets, I just don't see them running away w/ this one, especially w/ a back to back in New Orleans looming tomorrow night. 10* Brooklyn |
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12-28-19 | CS-Northridge v. Boise State -8 | Top | 72-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10* Boise State (6:00 ET): Cal State Northridge has made one of the more curious "turnarounds" over the last month or so. The Matadors are by no means a "good team." That can easily be confirmed by their poor 3-10 SU record. But they have been cashing tickets at the betting window recently. Since starting 0-4 ATS, they've come back to cover six of their last seven games and that doesn't even include an 85-50 blowout of San Francisco State (non-board team) earlier in the week. But I don't look for this ATS surge to continue. My own power rankings say tonight's line vs. Boise State is WAY off. Boise State is 8-2 ATS its last 10 games and is coming off a strong showing in Hawaii in the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas. After losing the first game (to Georgia Tech), the Broncos ended up finishing fifth in the tournament by beating UTEP and Portland. Maybe its because they just played three games in four days. But bettors aren't taking Boise State seriously enough in my opinion. This should be an easy double digit win for the home team. They are 5-1 SU in Boise, outscoring opponents by an impressive 24.5 PPG. CS-Northridge is 1-8 SU away from home and giving up 83.9 PPG in those contests. While the Matadors just got All-American Lamine Diane back from suspension, Boise State just added a transfer to its ranks as Abu Kigab debuted in Hawaii. Cal State Northridge has lost 52 of the last 59 times it has been an underdog. 10* Boise State |