05-25-18 |
Celtics v. Cavs -6.5 |
|
99-109 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
05-23-18 |
Cavs v. Celtics +1 |
|
83-96 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 41 m |
Show
|
Cleveland/Boston 8:35: Value back to the Celtics which are undefeated at home in the playoffs; moreover, 14-5 ATS in this low price range as either a near pick, dog or favorite. Cleveland, on the other hand, a money burning 6-12 ATS on the road as a slight favorite. Boston missed a lot of good looks at the basket on Monday; tonight, we'll look for those buckets to drop. Boston the call.
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05-21-18 |
Celtics +7 v. Cavs |
|
102-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 23 m |
Show
|
Celtics/Cavaliers 8:35: In Game 3, Cleveland jumped all over Boston early and often. The LeBron James supporting cast started clicking and Boston was unable to recover. We'll look for Boston, 21-8-1 ATS off a SU loss, to make the right adjustments under HC Stevens. Cleveland has been inconsistent at home - 16-35-1 ATS - and has struggled after their last 5 ATS wins at 1-4 ATS. Horford usually sets the tone for Boston in the big games. He was stymied by Thompson on Saturday but I'll look for him to turn it up a notch tonight and carry Boston to the cover.
|
05-20-18 |
Rockets +7.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
85-126 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 40 m |
Show
|
Houston/Golden State 8:05: Houston got over the post season jitters with a strong performance in Game 2. They go to Golden State knowing they've played well there this season (10/17/17 122-121 outright win). Houston looking to win back home court advantage and #1 seeds coming off home win as a 6+ point road dog sports a sweet 13-4 ATS mark. Sure Curry and company will most likely be back on their perimeter game; however, Warriors a home concern in their last 11 at Oracle Arena achieved a money burning 3-8 ATS. Value with Houston here.
|
05-19-18 |
Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs |
|
86-116 |
Loss |
-109 |
19 h 28 m |
Show
|
Celtics/Cavaliers 8:35: Cavaliers will be fired up and surely LeBron will lead the way with urgency; however, not sold on the Cavaliers as a home favorite regardless of what is at stake. Cavaliers have been poor home favorites (15-35-1 ATS) giving up big leads late; poor on 3+ days rest at 0-6 ATS; crappy on Saturdays at 17-36 ATS. And to make Cavaliers' bettors more on edge, will J.R. Smith and Korver show up with their perimeter game? Will Kevin Love be on his game? Too much risk to be laying wood with the Cavaliers. On the other hand, the well coached Celtics are 6-1 ATS on 3+ days rest, 23-7-1 ATS off a SU win of 10+, 41-15 ATS on Saturdays, and 4-0-1 ATS in Cleveland. Boston's young talent blossoming at the right time and we'll stay on Boston.
|
05-15-18 |
Cavs +1 v. Celtics |
|
94-107 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
|
05-14-18 |
Warriors v. Rockets -1 |
|
119-106 |
Loss |
-100 |
20 h 3 m |
Show
|
Warriors/Rockets 9:05: Harden and Paul backcourt combo a difference maker this year. Houston competitive in this year's regular season series except when Harden didn't play on January 4th. Rockets healthy now and even Mbah A Moute in the fold for good minutes off the bench. And Capela has stepped up his game sharply this year. Rockets are 10-2 ATS on 3+ days rest and should be well prepared tonight. Warriors a concern with the 3-11 ATS mark on the road against home teams above .600. Now that the Rockets have improved their defense this season (#6), Golden State may have trouble tonight. Rockets the call.
|
05-13-18 |
Cavs v. Celtics +2 |
|
83-108 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
Cleveland/Boston 3:30: I believe a competitive matchup this year in this series unlike last year; remember, Rosier was developing last year and Jayson Tatum, a huge addition to this year's Celtics, had not even arrived. Celtics' chemistry very good throughout the playoffs as Horford went into major playoff mode. Also like that Baynes has stepped up his game. Sure, LeBron will be a beast and Love is heating up again. However, Cavaliers 0-5 ATS on 3+ days rest and defense is still in question at times. Boston 4-1 ATS on 3+ days rest and defensively more disciplined under Stevens than their counterparts. Boston a dangerous 12-5 ATS from -1' to +2 and I'll ride them here.
|
05-09-18 |
76ers v. Celtics +1 |
Top |
112-114 |
Win
|
101 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
|
Philadelphia/Boston 8:00: Boston was in control of Game 4 at Philadelphia when the referees started making ticky-tacky foul calls against the Celtics; moreover, technical fouls on Rozier and Brown set off mild mannered coach Stevens - who got a rare technical; consequently, 76ers captured the momentum and delivered behind an enthusiastic crowd. Tonight, I'll look for Boston to keep composure and deliver behind their super enthusiastic crowd. Boston is 8-1 ATS following a 10+ point loss and won and covered 11 of their last 12 home games. 76ers' McConnell played above and beyond his normal play on Monday but we'll look for him to come back down to earth tonight at the ever tough Boston venue TD Garden. I believe J.J.Reddick can light it up on the road in the playoffs but still not sold on Embiid and Simmons in crunch time. They're still not ready for prime time in clutch situations. Boston edge in coaching and Horford. Moreover, underrated Tatum, Rozier and Brown still can carry this group to the NBA Finals. Boston closes it out tonight.
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05-08-18 |
Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors |
|
104-113 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 33 m |
Show
|
|
05-07-18 |
Celtics +6.5 v. 76ers |
|
92-103 |
Loss |
-103 |
17 h 34 m |
Show
|
Celtics/76ers 6:05: Celtics outplaying and out coaching the 76ers. They're proving the next man up theory and not blinking if someone goes down. GM Ainge did a great job stocking a roster with quality coachable guys who gel together. And HC Stevens has pushed all the right buttons. On the other hand, Brett Brown and his staff struggling to find answers. Embiid and Simmons are liabilities in playoff crunch time while Boston's Horford, Tatum and Rozier are shining stars. Celtics 22-8 ATS run and 42-19-2 ATS on the road against a team with winning home record. Celtics also 7-2 ATS in Philadelphia. Boston the call.
|
05-05-18 |
Raptors +5 v. Cavs |
|
103-105 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
Raptors/Cavaliers 8:35: Glaring weakness on the Raptors' defense when Jonas V. was forced to guard Love; consequently, Love had one of his best games of the year. The Cavaliers were hitting on all cylinders with LeBron's supporting cast stepping up big. Tonight, if there was a time to play with playoff death urgency, this is it for Toronto. Cavaliers have been a money burning bet as a home favorite in this price range virtually all year. Raptors, however, play pretty well in the dog role receiving 3 to 6 points. Toronto will need more production from their lagging frontcourt to help out DeRozan and Lowry. Tonight, we'll look for Toronto's HC Casey to make the needed adjustments, for a change.
|
05-04-18 |
Rockets v. Jazz +5 |
|
113-92 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
|
05-04-18 |
Warriors v. Pelicans +5.5 |
|
100-119 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
Warriors/Pelicans 8:05: Pelicans have a legitimate shot at winning tonight. They got their confidence back at Golden State in G2 and nearly upended the Warriors. And Golden State had a ridiculous 59-20 free throw advantage in the first two games of this series. That disparity should narrow down considerably after tonight. We'll look for AD, who amazingly didn't go to the foul line in Game 2, to work Draymond Green and get him in foul trouble at the Big Easy. I see Davis much more aggressive tonight. And now that Rondo and Holiday are back in rhythm, New Orleans should be very competitive, especially if Mirotic gets rolling again. Warriors just 2-10 ATS in last 12 road tilts against a team with a home win % above .600; moreover, they're 4-13 ATS off a SU win. Despite the coaching mismatch of Kerr vs Gentry, we'll ride the pocket stuffing Pelicans (10-1 ATS run) in hopes that Mirotic can get his shooting game back on track.
|
05-01-18 |
Pelicans +11 v. Warriors |
|
116-121 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 17 m |
Show
|
Pelicans/Warriors 10:35: Pelicans lay off didn't help as they were overwhelmed at Golden State. Look for a more rhythmic flow from New Orleans tonight. Curry will probably play and add more offensive firepower to a revved up Warriors' offense. However, on the defensive end, Curry may be off a step or two against a swift Jrue Holiday. Warriors 2-8 ATS off a win of 10+ points. Warriors 7-13 ATS laying 11 to 13' points. Pelicans were 1-0 getting 11-13' points this season. That cover came easy Dec 11th at Houston. We'll look for a better effort from the Pelicans while Mirotic and Davis step up their game.
|
05-01-18 |
Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors |
|
113-112 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 46 m |
Show
|
|
04-30-18 |
76ers -3 v. Celtics |
|
101-117 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 54 m |
Show
|
Philadelphia/Boston 8:05: Difficult spot for banged up Boston with Jaylen Brown ailing with hamstring and limited time to get ready for a fast rolling 76ers team. 76ers had trouble with Boston with Kyrie Irving on the floor, including most recent - Jan 11th at Philadelphia; however, Boston got rolled without Irving a week later at Philadelphia. Of course, Irving won't play and Brown is surely a key scoring component in the offense. It's hard to envision Boston matching points with Simmons and company. Philadelphia is well rested and 5-2 ATS on 3+ days rest. Philadelphia 4-1 ATS at Boston and I won't be afraid laying a few points.
|
04-29-18 |
Pacers v. Cavs -5 |
|
101-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
04-28-18 |
Pelicans +9 v. Warriors |
|
101-123 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 9 m |
Show
|
Pelicans/Warriors 10:35: Pelicans have four starters who are playing as good at their position as anybody in the league. Backcourt duo of Rondo and Holiday can hold their own with anybody. PF Nikola Mirotic may be the key ingredient that saved Gentry's job. Mirotic, who came over from Chicago in February, is a matchup nightmare; furthermore, C Anthony Davis is virtually unguardable when he is locked in. And yes, he's locked in! Fortunately for the Pelicans, their SF Moore is serviceable and has the great supporting cast to blend in with. Pelicans' bench is thin but able to rise to the occasion with the elevated play of the aforementioned starters. Golden State will possibly play Curry here; however, he can't be playing at a high level in this stage coming off a long layoff. Value with the Pelicans here, who can trade buckets with the best of them.
|
04-28-18 |
Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 |
|
96-112 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
|
04-27-18 |
Cavs v. Pacers |
|
87-121 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 15 m |
Show
|
Cavs/Pacers 8:05: Pacers on the cusp of winning but failed to close. James' goaltending wasn't called and the rest is history; however, I believe the Pacers can push this series to 7. Oladipo struggling offensively over the last three games yet overdue to see that Game 1 performance re-emerge. Sabonis doing a great job and Indiana is surely not intimidated. Cleveland defense still has its flaws and the Pacers need to exploit those... Don't believe streaky Korver can sustain his sharp shooting. Indiana now 7-0 ATS off a SU loss and should find a way to get out of the gate strong instead of playing behind. Tonight, Indiana should deliver.
|
04-25-18 |
Pacers +6 v. Cavs |
Top |
95-98 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
Pacers/Cavaliers 7:05: Pacers competitive in this series and 6-0 ATS off a SU loss. They're getting good work out of a variety of players for all starters in G4 were in double-digits. Stephenson and Sabonis stepped up their game as well. Tonight, we need Bogdanovic and Oladipo to get back their prime-time performance play. Cavaliers have been good at correcting defensive flaws after the fact and Indiana hasn't answered back. I believe the Pacers can be the ones pushing the right buttons tonight; after all, they've covered 5 of the last 7 in this series, they're not intimidated, and have a solid team corps that can outsmart some of Cleveland's young guns who stepped up in G4 like Nance Jr. and Clarkson. And I don't expect streaky Korver to come out smoking hot again. Cleveland a money burning 16-36-1 ATS at home and 2-7 ATS on 2 days rest. Pacers should keep it tight.
|
04-24-18 |
Spurs v. Warriors -11 |
Top |
91-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
Spurs/Warriors 10:35: Gutsy pride win for the Spurs in Game 4 but the Warriors should put them away tonight; after all, Spurs have not played well on the road virtually all season and are 0-9 ATS as a traveler vs home teams above .500. Sure, San Antonio is the #1 defense in the NBA but throw that out the window come playoff time if you have trouble shooting in today's spread the floor trey bombing game. Spurs are 27th in the NBA in scoring and will not be able to trade baskets with the #1 scoring offense in the NBA (113.5 PPG) even without top-gun Curry on the floor. With K. Leonard (out) on the floor, Spurs have that other big time scoring option with Aldridge to be competitive with anybody; however, without Leonard, there is no other consistent go-to-guy who has lots of juice in the tank on the Spurs' roster. Spurs just 3-7 ATS off a 10+ SU win, and 1-4 ATS at Golden State. Warriors the call.
|
04-23-18 |
Thunder v. Jazz -4 |
|
96-113 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
|
04-23-18 |
Rockets v. Wolves +6 |
|
119-100 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
|
04-22-18 |
Cavs v. Pacers +1 |
|
104-100 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 46 m |
Show
|
|
04-22-18 |
Raptors v. Wizards +2.5 |
|
98-106 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
Toronto/Washington 6:05: Home team in this series is now 5-1 ATS so there is no surprise the Wizards picking it up in this series as they showed promise in Toronto trading blow for blow until Toronto momentum shift late and fed off home crowd. Similar scenario unfolding in Washington. Wall and Beal were outstanding in G3 outplaying Lowry and DeRozan. Furthermore, Gortat is stepping up his game while PF Mike Scott (18 of 24 in series) has been outstanding. Raptors could experience more problems here as they're just 2-5-1 ATS off a SU loss of 10+ and failed to cover in 6 of their last 7 road games.
|
04-22-18 |
Warriors -6.5 v. Spurs |
|
90-103 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
04-21-18 |
Thunder v. Jazz -5 |
|
102-115 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
04-21-18 |
Rockets v. Wolves +6.5 |
|
105-121 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
Rockets/Wolves 7:35: T-Wolves surely have the young talent to match up with Houston but offensively stall out. Tonight at home, we'll look for Minnesota to get comfortable offensively on their home floor. Butler and Towns need to step up and this should be the moment; moreover, need a big game out of veteran PG Teague who was a virtual no show in G2. Rockets shooting only 29% from beyond the arc in this series. The three-ball is a huge part of their game and Wolves should try desperately to cut off the three-ball on their floor. This game opened at Minnesota +3' and shot to +6 quickly. Like the value with the hungry dog at home, especially to win the first half (+2). As for the final result, we'll take the points.
|
04-21-18 |
Blazers v. Pelicans -7 |
|
123-131 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
04-20-18 |
Cavs v. Pacers |
|
90-92 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
Cavaliers/Pacers 7:05: In Game 2, Pacers outscored the Cavaliers in the paint 62-30 and almost stole a win. So far, Pacers are collectively playing as a better team than the Cavaliers; after all, LeBron James had to pull off a 46 point effort in G2 just to hang on for dear life. Like the Pacers chances here. They're 5-0 ATS off a SU loss and 8-3-1 ATS at home vs Cleveland. Cleveland having a hard time finding an inside game as Tristan Thompson inexplicably rotting away on the bench. Veteran retreads Korver and J.R. Smith had to increase minutes in G2 because of sluggish performances in G1 by Hood and Green. And Love will have to play tonight with a partially torn ligament in his left thumb. I'm looking for the hungry Pacers behind Oladipo to deliver tonight.
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