Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-27-23 | Marlins v. Red Sox -125 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
Marlins (Alcantara) @ Red Sox (Whitlock) 7:10 PM ET Game# 921-922 Play On: Red Sox -125 (10*) Saying that Sandy Alcantara’s first half of the 2023 season has been disappointing would be a vast understatement. Alcantara has a lofty 5.17 ERA in 15 starts and Miami went 6-9 in those games. The Marlins are coming off a 4-3 home stand. Since 2021, Miami is 6-25 on the road immediately following a 5-game or more home stand. During that same time span, Miami is 0-5 on the road immediately following a day off and after a home win and includes 0-2 this season. Miami is a very profitable 17-7 versus American League teams this season. However, just 2-4 during their last 6 in that role. Since 2021, Miami has gone an abysmal 4-23 versus AL East Division teams. Boston is averaging 8.6 runs scored and 12.1 hits per game in their last 7 this season immediately following a day off. The Red Sox Garrett Whitlock is 3-0 in his home team starts in 2023 with a stellar 3.37 ERA/1.07 WHIP while averaging a healthy 6.2 innings pitched per start. Whitlock has also displayed very good form over his last 3 starts overall with a 3.37 ERA/1.07 WHIP and averaged 6.8 innings pitched per start with a better than 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Give me the Boston Red Sox on the money line. |
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06-26-23 | Twins v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Twins (Gray) @ Braves (Strider) 7:20 PM ET Game# 959-960 Play On: Over 8.0 (10*) The Braves Spenser Strider has a large 8.40 ERA/1.80 WHIP over his last 3 starts and allowed 5 home runs in just 15.0 innings pitched. Strider will be facing a Twins team which has smashed 13 homers throughout their previous 7 games. Strider has pitched 7-0 to the over in his home starts this season and there was a combined average of 12.7 runs scored per game. Speaking of homers hit, Atlanta has hit an incredible 21 of them over their previous 7 games. The Braves have scored 5 runs or more in 11 of their previous 12 and 17 of the last 21 games. Atlanta has played 25-13-1 to the over at home in 2023 and there was a combined 10.2 runs scored per game. Although Sonny Gray has been the best starting pitcher for Minnesota since last season. Gray does have some vulnerabilities. He’s pitched 10-2 to the over in that exact time frame when facing a team with a winning record and there was a combined 11.2 runs scored per game. The Twins bullpen has a shaky 5.49 ERA/1.59 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Since last season, Minnesota has played 18-6 to the over when facing National League teams. During that identical time span, Atlanta has played 30-12 to the over versus American League teams. Give me this game to go over the total as a Top Play wager. |
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06-23-23 | Pirates v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
Pirates (Ortiz) @ Marlins (Luzardo) 6:40 PM ET Game# 901-902 Play On: Marlins -1.5 (+105) (10*) Let’s start with this. Pittsburgh has lost 10 straight and scored 3 runs or fewer in 9 of their previous 12 games. Throughout their previous 7 the Pirates are averaging a pathetic 1.9 runs per game while recording a .144 team batting average. Pittsburgh will be facing a marlins team which has allowed 3.0 runs per game throughout their last 7 outings. Luis Ortiz is 0-4 in his road team starts this season with a lousy 5.50 ERA and abysmal 1.94 WHIP. Even then, Ortiz is fortunate to have an ERA that low with a WHIP that high. Simply put, he’s wiggled out of lot of james during those starts while flirting with potential disaster. Miami is 14-1 this season as a home favorite of -150 or greater this and outscored their opponents by a decisive average of 3.5 runs per game. During their previous 7 games the Marlins have an outstanding .305 batting average and .352 on-base-percentage as a team. Miami’s Jesus Luzardo is 6-2 in his home team starts this season while posting a stellar 3.04 ERA/1.06 WHIP. Throughout their previous 7 games, the Marlins bullpen staff has a combined 2.49 ERA/1.06 WHIP. Give me the Miami Marlins as a run-line favorite for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-18-23 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -114 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
Blue Jays (Bassitt) @ Rangers (Gray) 2:35 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Rangers -114 (10*) Chris Bassitt is 0-3 in his day game team starts with a massive 14.60 ERA/2.19 WHIP and allowed 7 home runs during only 12 1/3 innings pitcher. The latter of those states is most concerning since Bassitt will be facing one of the best power hitting teams in the American League. Texas has averaged 1.32 home runs per game this season and that number increases to 1.6 per game at home. Additionally, Texas is an outstanding 20-7 (.741) during the day in 2023 and is averaging over 7 runs per game while also belting 42 home runs. This is logically not a good matchup for Chris Bassitt on Sunday. The Texas Rangers Jon Gray has been sensational pver his last 6 starts while recording a brilliant 0.84 ERA and better than 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Texas bullpen has a stellar 0.89 WHIP over their last 7 games. Give me the Texas Rangers on the money line as my 10* Top Play of the Month. |
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06-15-23 | Angels v. Rangers -118 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Angels (Ohtani) @ Rangers (Eovaldi)8:05 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Rangers -118 (10*) Shoei Ohtani has made 4 career starts at Texas and posted an uninspiring 5.66 ERA. Ohtani has been in shaky form over his last 3 starts with a 4.76 ERA/1.59 WHIP. The star right-hander has also allowed an alarmingly high 7 home runs in 32.0 innings pitched on the road. That’s potentially problematic since Ohtani will be facing a Texas Rangers team which has belted 55 home runs in 33 home games this season. Additionally, since the start of last season, the Angels are a dismal 14-36 (.280) when facing a starting pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi who allows an average of 0.5 home runs or fewer per start. Nathan Eovaldi is coming off a rare start this season in which it wasn’t of the quality variety. However, Eovaldi is 7-1 during his last 8 team starts while compiling an excellent 1.47 ERA/0.94 WHIP and averaged a healthy 7.0 innings pitched per outing. Texas is a very good 22-11 (.667) at home this season while averaging 6.6 runs scored per game. Give me the Texas Rangers as a money line favorite. |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets -135 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Heat 8:30 ET Game# 45-46 Play On: Denver -135 (10*) Denver is coming off a disappointing 111-108 home loss in Game 2. However, the Nuggets are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and when coming off a SU loss and outscored their opponents by 12.7 points per game. Furthermore, since the start of last season, Denver is 3-0 SU&ATS at Miami and won by an average of 13.4 points per game. Since the 2017 NBA Postseason, any Game 3 away favorite of -1.5 or greater or less like Denver will be tonight, and they’re coming off a home favorite of 7.0 or greater upset loss, resulted in those Game 3 away favorites going 7-0 SU. The average margin of victory during those 7 games came by a decisive margin of 16.4 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets as a money line wager. |
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05-29-23 | Yankees v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Yankees (German) @ Mariners (Miller) 9:40 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Under 8.0 (10*) The Yankees Domingo German returns from his 10-game suspension after showing great form over his last 4 start with a 1.64 ERA/0.68 WHIP. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Yankees have played 24-9 (73%) to the under. Seattle’s Bryce Miller has seen all 5 of his starts going under the total this season and his brilliant 1.15 ERA/0.51 WHIP was a major reason why. Additionally, 2 of those 5 starts came at home where Miller allowed 0 earned runs in 12.0 innings pitched. Seattle went over the total on Sunday, and they’ve played 4-0 to the under in their last 4 following an over during its previous game. Both bullpens in this matchup have been rock-solid thus far in 2023. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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05-21-23 | Celtics -150 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -150 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Celtics -150 (10*) The Celtics have a strange home/away dichotomy during this year and last year’s Playoffs. Specifically speaking, they’ve gone 10-11 SU at home during that stretch and 12-6 SU during away games. Furthermore, if they were coming off a loss they improved to 7-1 SU&ATS on the road. The Celtics are still a favorite after losing the first games of the series at home. Even despite the fact that Miami has won their last 6 at home this postseason. The sportsbooks are giving us the winner here with the road favorite. Especially when considering Miami is on a current 3-game win streak, and those previous 2 losses by the Celtics came as a point-spread favorite of 8.0 points or greater. NBA money line favorites like Boston who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a favorite of 7.0 or more, versus an opponent like Miami who is coming off wins in their previous 2 games in which they were an underdog on each occasion, resulted in those teams going 32-4 (89%) since the 1996-1997 season. Give me the Boston Celtics on the money line. |
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05-13-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-0 | Win | 105 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Rangers (Gray) @ A’s (Kaprielian) 4:07 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Rangers -1.5 (-103) (10*) Oakland is 1-15 during day games this season and were outscored by an enormous 4.6 runs per game. The A’s are also an abysmal 4-16 at home and being outscored by an average of 3.5 runs per game. Conversely, Texas is 9-4 during the day this season with a huge +3.6 run per game differential and averaging a substantial 8.1 runs scored per game. The Rangers lost at Oakland last night. But they can take comfort in knowing the A’s are a miserable 1-7 in 2023 immediately following a win and that includes 0-3 at home. Texas’ Jon Gray has been sharp in 4 road starts with a shiny 3.05 ERA/1.02 WHIP. Give me the Texas Rangers on the run-line. |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Lakers -2.5 (10*) Golden State will try to stave off elimination for a 2nd time in 3 days. Nevertheless, that Game 5 win came at home. The Warriors are a miserable 11-34 on the road this season and that includes 5-21 when facing opponents with a winning record. Additionally, Golden State is a miserable 1-10 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog of 5.0 or less. The Lakers are coming off a 121-106 loss at Golden State in Game 5 and they squandered an opportunity to close out the defending world champions. However, recent NBA Playoffs betting history shows that teams like the Lakers in this exact situation have been exceptional good. NBA Playoff home favorites of 8.0 or less that have a 3-2 series and are coming off a Game 5 loss by 11 points or more, resulted in in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the average margin of victory during those 7 contests came by a substantial 17.2 points per game. Give me the Lakers minus points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (10*) Phoenix is coming off a 118-102 loss at Denver in Game 5 and failed to cover as a 6.5-point underdog. As a result, they’re facing elimination tonight as they’re down 3-2 in the series. The Suns are an impressive 32-14 at home this season. However, they’ve gone just 4-4 SU at home following an away underdog ATS loss in their previous game. Furthermore, Phoenix is a miserable 2-8 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0 and they were coming off a SU loss in their previous game. That includes 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact scenario if they were coming off a loss by 10 points or more. The above numbers and results certainly don’t bode well for the Suns as a favorite in tonight’s game. NBA Playoffs betting history supports #1 seed away underdogs like Denver who are attempting to close out a 7-game series. Any NBA Playoffs #1 seed like Denver that’s an away underdog of 5.0 or less while attempting to close out a 7-game series, and they’re coming off a SU win in their previous game, resulted in those top seeded away underdogs going 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since the 2005 postseason. Furthermore, that identical NBA Playoffs betting angle is a perfect 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 2010. Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points. |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Lakers @ Warriors 10:00 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Warriors -7.0 (10*) The Lakers have seized control of this series after winning Game 3 and 4 on their home floor to take a commanding 3-1 lead. However, look for an inspired effort from the defending world champion Warriors on their home floor. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is 5-1 SU&ATS when facing elimination and coming off a loss in the previous game. The Warriors have also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite following losses in each of their last 2 contests and won by an average of 12.5 points per game. Give me the Golden State Warriors minus points for a highest rated 10* Top Play. |
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05-08-23 | Astros -118 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Astros (Brown) @ Angels (Sandoval) 9:38 PM ET Game# 919-920 Play On: Astros -118 (10*) The Angels Patrick Sandoval has made 6 career starts versus Houston with a lousy 7.15 ERA/1.81 WHIP. Since the beginning of last season, the Angels are 10-35 when facing starting pitchers like Hunter Brown who allow an average of 0.5 or less home runs per start. The Angels pitching staff has allowed a combined 26 runs and 32 hits during its previous 2 games. The Astros Hunter Brown is 3-0 in his road team starts this season with a brilliant 1.93 ERA/0.91 WHIP. Since 2021, Houston has gone 36-14 against American League teams like the Angels that average 4.39 or more runs scored per game. Houston is a solid 9-6 on the road thus far in 2023 and outscored those 15 opponents by an average of 1.2 runs per game. MLB money line road favorites of -110 or greater like Houston who is facing a team whose bullpen that averages 3.2 or more innings pitched per game and they allowed 4 earned runs or more in each of their last 2 games, resulted in those money line favorites going 42-10 (80.8%) since 2019. The money line favorites outscored their 52 opponents by a sizable average of 3.6 runs per game and their average money line was -134.5. Give me the Houston Astros for a 10* Top Play money line pick. |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET Game# 529-530 Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (10*) We have a sizable home favorite that trails this playoff series 3-1 and has lost the last 2 games. Must be awfully tempting for many bettors to take the underdog in that spot. However, I’m going with a contrarian approach in this spot. We saw the teams down 3-1 in their series go 2-1 ATS as underdogs last night. Additionally, Atlanta won their game SU as a +13.5 underdog at Boston and Minnesota lost by just 2 as a 10.0-point dog at #1 seed Denver. Both those teams were on the road while the Cavaliers will be at home this evening where they’ve gone 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS this season. Furthermore, Cleveland is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less immediately following 2 consecutive losses, and they won by a substantial average of 16.7 points per contest. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played. Nevertheless, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and outscored those 10 opponents by 16.6 points per game. Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points. |
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04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
Bucks @ Heat 3:30 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Heat +5.0 (10*) Since the start of last season, Miami has gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home versus Milwaukee, and the average victory margin came by a whopping 18.3 points per contest. Additionally, they held the Bucks to 97 points or fewer in all 4 of those wins. So, there’s no denying they won’t be lacking for confidence in this pivotal game of series that’s tied up at 1-1. Furthermore, they knocked off the Bucks in the series opener 130-117 at Milwaukee. The logic being this isn’t your typical #8 vs. #1 seed first round matchup where the underdog looks overwhelmed and passive. The Bucks did make 25 three-point shots in their Game 2 home win. However, that was on the heels of going 11-45 (24.4%) during the series opener. Speaking of 3-point shooting, Miami has shot a red-hot 31-61 (51.4%) from 3-point territory in the first 2 games of this series. The Heat have shot 51.2% or better from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in their last 4 and 8 of their previous 11 games. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -8 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Clippers @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Suns -8.0 (10*) Since the 1996 NBA Playoffs, the Clippers have gone a dismal 4-16 ATS on the road when leading a series. Additionally, this current line speaks volumes. Phoenix is a sizable favorite despite losing 3 in a row and they’re facing an opponent like the Clippers who have won 4 straight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this spot. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a game in which they won SU as an away underdog, and they were outscored by a substantial margin of 14.0 points per contest. Phoenix is coming off a 115-110 home loss as a favorite of -7.5 in Game 1 of this series. NBA favorites like Phoenix who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a home favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 39-10 ATS (79.6%) since the 2018-2019 season began. The average point-spread for those favorites was -6.8 and they outscored the underdogs by 13.8 points per game. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
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04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Chicago @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Miami -5.5 (5*) The good news for Bulls fans is they’re team has won 3 straight games. The bad news is Chicago hasn’t won 4 straight games all season. As a matter of fact, Chicago is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS this season immediately following 3 consecutive wins and they were outscored by a decisive 13.8 points per game. Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. The Heat are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home following a loss in their previous contest. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS during their previous 3 in that exact role and with an average victory margin of 10.7 points per game. Public bettors will be leaning heavily on the underdog in this matchup based on what they just witnessed earlier this week from both teams. Additionally, Chicago is 3-0 in their last 3 versus Miami this season, and that will sway them toward the underdog even further. Yet, the odds-makers remain undeterred on those recent results and opened Miami as a sizable favorite with all being considered. Give me the Miami Heat as a point-spread favorite. |
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04-07-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -141 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
Cardinals (Flaherty) @ Brewers (Woodruff) 8:10 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Brewers -141 (10*) The Cardinals Jack Flaherty has made 6 starts at Miller Park in Milwaukee since 2019, and he posted an alarmingly high 7.92 ERA/1.92 WHIP. The Cardinals enter the series on a current 3-game losing streak in which they were outscored 17-7. The Brewers enter this 3-game series versus NL Central rival St. Louis riding a 5-game win streak and outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 42-12. Since 2021, Brandon Woodruff has made 4 starts versus St. Louis and recorded a microscopic 0.73 ERA during those outings. The Brewers bullpen has been terrific thus far in 2023 with a staff 1.33 ERA/0.93 WHIP. Give me the Brewers as a money line favorite. |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut UNDER 132.5 | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
San Diego State vs. Connecticut 9:20 PM ET Game# 711-712 Play On: Under 132.5 (10*) The only flaw that UConn has displayed defensively during their 5 NCAA Tournament games is allowing opponents to have an average of 19 free throw attempts per game. If you even want to label that as a flaw. However, San Diego State has been terrible from the free throw line during their 5 NCAA Tournament game while converting on just 63.4% of their free throw attempts. Otherwise, the Huskies have held all 5 of their opponents to 38.8% or worse while giving up a mere 59.2 points per contest. UConn has covered all 5 games in the big Dance. The Huskies have played 8-1 to the under this season when not playing at home and coming off covering each of their previous 3 games. San Diego State is a 7.5-point underdog at the time of this writing. The Aztecs have played 8-0 to the under since 12/17/2021 and there were a combined 125.1 points scored per game. San Diego State is coming off a thrilling 72-71 buzzer beating win over FAU in a game that went over the total of 132.0. That snapped a string of 12 consecutive games going under the total for the Aztecs. As a matter of fact, they haven’t gone over the total in 2 straight games since January 10th. Furthermore, The Aztecs have played 5-0 to the under in their last 5 contests following an over in their previous outing and there was a combined average of 121.6 points scored per game. The Aztecs have also gone under in their last 5 after allowing 70 points or more during its previous contest and there was a combined 118.2 points scored per game. According to Ken Pomeroy, San Diego State is #4 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and UConn is #8. Additionally, UConn is #214 in adjust offensive temp and San Diego State is #270. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Miami vs. Connecticut 8:49 PM ET Game# 703-704 Play On: Miami +5.5 (10*) I really like this UConn team. Nevertheless, I believe this is a contest that will go down to the wire, and the Huskies will be hard pressed to cover a relatively high number with all considered. As a matter of fact, Miami has gone 9-1 ATS including 7-3 SU as an underdog this season. Additionally, if the Hurricanes were +3.5 or greater, they improved to 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU for the season. Furthermore, their last 3 wins in the NCAA Tournament all came as an underdog versus #21 Indiana, #2 Houston, and #5 Texas. Those 3 teams finished with a cumulative record of 84-24 (.778). So, it’s not like the Canes had an easy path to reach the Final Four. On the other hand, UConn has yet to be challenged in their 4 NCAA Tournament wins with all of them coming by 15 points or more. Miami is a very difficult team to blow out with 6 of their 7 losses coming by 7 points or fewer, and 4 of those defeats were by narrow margins of 3 points or less. Give me Miami plus the points. |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State +2.5 | Top | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
San Diego State vs. Creighton 2:20 PM ET Game# 657-658 Play On: San Diego State +2.5 (10*) San Diego State is an elite defensive team with size, length, and athleticism. That will be the difference in the outcome of this game. During their 3 NCAA Tournament wins over Charleston, Furman, and Alabama, San Diego State allowed just 57.7 points per game while those 3 opponents shot a terrible 32.2% from the field. The Aztecs will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 3-point loss to Creighton in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Creighton is coming off an 11-point win versus #15 seed Princeton and barely covered as a 10.0-point favorite despite shooting 58%. It will be a huge adjustment for them going from going up against the Ivy League champion to playing stingy defensive team like San Diego State. The Bluejays are averaging 9 three-point makes per game. However, San Diego State has gone 13-1 SU this season versus opponents who were averaging 8 or more 3-point shots made per game. Give me San Diego State. |
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03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Farleigh-Dickinson vs. FAU 7:45 PM ET Game# 843-844 Play On: FAU -15.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the sentimental underdog and #16 seed Farleigh-Dickinson in this matchup. I believe we’ll see a similar type of result on Sunday that we saw on Saturday when San Diego State blew out Furman. San Diego State wasn’t going to take the underdog Paladins who upset Virginia in Round 1 lightly, and especially so with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. FAU finds itself in a similar position on Sunday versus a #16 seed who pulled off the massive upset over #1 seed Purdue in Round 1. The upstart FAU Owls is in no position to take any game for granted in the NCAA Tournament with being on the cusp of a first ever Sweet 16 appearance. Ken Pomeroy has FDU ranked #275 in the country, #353 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and #361 regarding strength of schedule. Give me FAU minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Maryland v. Alabama -8.5 | Top | 51-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Maryland vs. Alabama 9:40 PM ET Game# 805-806 Play On: Alabama -8.5 (10*) These teams met in the NCAA Tournament last season and Alabama walked away with a 96-77 win. I expect a similar type of result today. For starters, the game will be played in Birmingham which is about as close a home game for Alabama as you can possibly get, and I’m handicapping it as such. Alabama was a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 24.5 points per game. Conversely, Maryland has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Their only win came over Big 10 cellar dweller Minnesota. Alabama has been locked in defensively over their previous 5 contests while holding their opponents to a combined 32.7% shooting from the field. On the other hand, Maryland has averaged just 64.6 points scored per game while shooting an uninspiring 42.5% throughout its previous 5 games. Give me Alabama minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern +7.5 v. UCLA | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Northwestern vs. UCLA 8:40 PM ET Game# 815-816 Play On: Northwestern +7.5 (10*) I’m not going to poke holes in in the #7 UCLA Bruins (30-5) season resume because quite frankly there would be little to talk about. However, I do feel this will be a difficult number to cover. Northwestern possesses a veteran 3-guard veteran backcourt that’s very good and will be vital in us covering this contest. Furthermore, Northwestern has gone an extremely profitable 11-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 2.5 or greater and won 9 of those contests straight up. When tightening those numbers up even more, Northwestern improves to 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU as an underdog of 2.5 or greater immediately following a SU win. The Wildcats are coming off Thursday NCAA Tournament 75-67 win over Boise State in a game they shot an impressive 49.1%. UCLA is #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Nonetheless, Northwestern is pretty good as well with a #18 national ranking in that identical category. Give me Northwestern plus the points. |
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03-17-23 | Kent State +4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
Kent State vs. Indiana 9:55 PM ET Game# 771-772 Play On: Kent State +4.5 (10*) This line jumped right off the page at me. We have #21 Indiana as just a 4.0-point favorite versus unranked Kent State winners of the MAC Tournament. However, Kent State has proven it can play with the big boys this season. They lost at #2 Houston (31-3) by 5, #9 Gonzaga (28-5) by 7, and at CAA champion Charleston (31-3) by only 2. The Golden Flashes are 22-3 in their last 25 and includes a current 6-game win streak. Indiana went just 5-4 in their last 9 games. The Hoosiers did most of their damage at home this season where they went 15-2. Conversely, they were just 7-9 in away and neutral site games. Give me Kent State plus the points. |
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03-16-23 | College of Charleston v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
Charleston vs. San Diego State 3:10 PM ET Game# 737-738 Play On: San Diego State -5.0 (10*) Charleston seems to be a popular pick when it comes to upsets on March Madness brackets being filled out by the public. After all, they’re 31-3 which includes 16-2 in conference play. However, as opposed to San Diego State, Charleston ranks #304 national in terms of strength of schedule and #232 with regards to its non-conference slate. San Diego State (27-6) is the Mountain West Conference Tournament regular season and conference tournament champion. That’s nothing to make light off since the conference will be represented by 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs have traditionally been an excellent defensive team. This season is no different since they rank #10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aztecs also played the 16th toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The Aztecs will also have a decided advantage when it comes to experience which should always be factored in when handicapping NCAA Tournament games. Give me San Diego State minus the points. |
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03-10-23 | Wichita State v. Tulane OVER 151 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Tulane vs. Wichita State 9:30 PM ET Game# 827-828 Play On: Over 151.0 (10*) Wichita State has seen 15 of their last 16 games go over the total. The Shockers have shot 50% or better in their last 4 and 7 of its previous 9 games. Tulane has played 14-4-1 to the over in their last 19 games. The Green Wave have scored 78 points or more in each of their last 5 and 7 of its previous 8 games. These teams played twice during regular season action with each contest going over the total and there were 185 and 163 combined points scored in those contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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03-04-23 | UNLV v. Nevada -8.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
UNLV @ Nevada 5:00 PM ET Game# 667-668 Play On: Nevada -8.5 (5*) UNLV is coming off a terrible 25-point home blowout loss to Utah State in their previous game. The Rebels have now lost 4 of its last 5 while shooting a terrible 38.7% throughout that stretch. Nevada is coming off an 80-71 upset loss at Wyoming. However, the Wolfpack is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS following a loss this season. Nevada is also 14-0 at home and that includes 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS when facing conference opponents. The Wolfpack will be also out to atone for a 68-62 loss at UNLV earlier this season. Give me Nevada minus the points. |
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03-03-23 | Knicks -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
New York @ Miami 8:10 PM ET Game# 553-554 Play On: New York -2.5 (5*) Miami has been slumping which is evidenced by them going 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 games. The Heat have scored 108 points or fewer in each of its previous 8 games. It’s very difficult to win in this NBA modern era with that kind of poor offensive scoring numbers. New York enters today a red-hot 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 and won by a decisive margin of 16.0 points per game. During this sizzling hot run they’ve averaged 123.7 points scored per game and shot a combined 51.5% from the field. The Knicks most latest win came at home over Brooklyn 142-118. New York is 4-0 SU&ATS this season on the road immediately following a road double-digit win and they won by an average of 13.0 points per game. Give me New York minus the points. |
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02-25-23 | Virginia v. North Carolina -3 | Top | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Virginia @ North Carolina 6:00 PM ET Game# 713-714 Play On: North Carolina -3.0 (10*) This line jumped right off the page at me. We have an unranked North Carolina team which has lost 5 of its last 7 games as a favorite over the #6 ranked team in the country. They’re begging you to take the underdog in this spot. I’m not falling for the bait. Give me North Carolina minus the points. |
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02-18-23 | Michigan State v. Michigan -130 | Top | 72-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Michigan State @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 777-778 Play On: Michigan -130 (10*) Michigan State has gone 1-3 SU&ATS in their last 4 conference away games. Their lone win that sequence came over a struggling Ohio State team that has lost its last 7 and 12 of their previous 13 games. Michigan lost their last 2 games by 1 to Indiana and by versus Wisconsin. However, the Wolverines haven’t lost 3 consecutive games in a row all season. Michigan is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS this season following losses in each of its previous 2 contests and won by an average of 18.5 points per game and all were versus Big 10 opponents. Michigan is 6-2 SU in conference home games this season with their only losses coming by 5 versus #3 Purdue (23-4) and against #14 Indiana (18-8) by 1. Today’s opponent Michigan State is unranked. The Wolverines are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season in conference home games when facing unranked opponents and won by an average of 14.2 points per game. Give me Michigan on the money line. |
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02-16-23 | UCF v. Memphis OVER 149 | Top | 63-64 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
UCF @ Memphis 8:00 PM ET Game# 799-800 Play On: Over 149.0 (10*) Earlier this season there would be no possible chance I would bet a UCF game to go over a number that neared or surpassed 150.0. Nevertheless, much has changed between then and now. These teams played a 2-overtime thriller earlier this season which saw UCF pull out a 107-104 win. However, that game was 78-78 at the end of regulation time which still would have sailed over that total of just 135.5. During their previous 5 contests, Memphis has averaged 90.6 points scored per game, shot 50.2% from the field, and made 38.7% of its 3-point shot attempts. Conversely, UCF has averaged 74.6 points scored per game, made 40.9% of its 3-point shot attempts, and made an average of 11 three-point shots per outing throughout their previous 5 contests. Memphis averages 24 free throw attempts and allows 24 free throw attempts per game this season. UCF is #1 in American Athletic Conference action in free throw percentage at 80.7%. Memphis is pretty good themselves in converting on 75.3% of its free throws in conference games. UCF has played 8-0 to the over this season immediately following playing in 3 straight conference games and there was a combined 156.9 points scored per contest. The Golden Knights have also played 7-0-2 to the over in their last 9 games overall. Memphis has gone over in their last 3 and there was a combined 174.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles -120 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia 6:30 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Philadelphia -120 (5*) In this sports betting expert’s opinion, Philadelphia is better on both sides of the ball, and the only reason they’re not the favorite in they faced a weaker schedule compared to that of Kansas City. The Eagles defense far and away has amassed the most sacks this season with 70, and the next best team had 55. Philadelphia also has an extremely potent running game that averages 147.6 yards per game on the ground. Conversely, Kansas City was just #16 against the run and they could’ve been much lower if not for teams having to abandon their running game against them in attempt to overcome sizable 2nd half deficits. Philadelphia is #2 in total defense and #1 against the pass (179.8 PG). The Eagles have only allowed 1 team to accumulate 300 or more pass yards against them this season and that was Dallas at 304. As a matter of fact, the Eagles have allowed 183 yards or fewer passing in each of its last 4 and 7 of their last 8 games. That’s concerning for a Chiefs team that has passed on 60.3% of their offensive plays so far this season. Give me Philadelphia on the money in Super Bowl LVII. |
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02-04-23 | Texas v. Kansas State OVER 149 | Top | 69-66 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 49 m | Show |
Texas @ Kansas State 4:00 ET Game# 666-700 Play On: Over 149.0 (10*) These teams met earlier this season in Austin and Kansas State walked away with a 116-103 win, and no there wasn’t any overtime. There were a combined 59 free throw attempts in that contest and the team went and made 53 of them for an excellent 89.8% conversion rate. Not to mention, combining to go 24-51 (47.1%) on 3-point shot attempts. I am not predicting those gaudy numbers will repeat themselves in this one, but I do think will see a similar volume of attempts in each category. By the way, these teams have now gone over the total in each of the last 6 times they’ve met. Texas has played 11-3 to the over in their last 14 games. The Longhorns are coming off a 76-71 home win versus Baylor and that contest barely went under the total of 148.5. Texas has played 6-0 to the over off a conference win this season and there was a combined 162.9 points scored per game. Texas has also played over in their last 4 immediately after an under and there was a combined 162.3 points scored per game. Kansas State has played 5-0 to the over this season whenever there was a total of 143.5 or greater and it produced a combined 165.4 points scored per game. Throughout their previous 5 games, the Wildcats averaged an enormous 28 free throw attempts per game and made an outstanding 76.1% of those tries. That’s good news considering Texas allows 24 free throw attempts per game in conference play. Kansas State has also made a very good 38% of their 3-point shot attempts in conference play. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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01-31-23 | Indiana v. Maryland -2.5 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Indiana @ Maryland 9:00 PM ET Game# 643-644 Play On: Maryland -2.5 (10*) Indiana is coming off a home blowout win over Ohio State. However, it must be noted that Indiana is currently a money line underdog of +130 in this matchup. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Indiana is 0-10 SU as a money line road underdog of +200 or less and lost by an average of 11.0 points per game. They were in that situation twice this season and lost at Penn State by 19 and at Kansas by 22. Maryland is 11-1 SU at home this season with their lone defeat coming against an extremely good UCLA team. Nevertheless, the Terrapins are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with an average victory margin of 11.2 points per game. Give me Maryland minus the points. |
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01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills -5.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Buffalo 3:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*) The Cincinnati Bengals have been a betting darling right now and are on a 9-game win streak. However, since the start of the 2011 NFL season, teams that are an underdog of 3.0 or greater that have won 8 of more games in a row have gone 0-7-1 ATS. The Bengals offensive line will be without 2 and possibly 3 starters on Sunday. Cincinnati was very fortunate to escape with a 24-17 home win over Baltimore in the Wildcard Round. They were outgained in that contest by a substantial margin 364-234 yards. If not for a game changing 98-yard fumble return with 10 minutes left with the game tied at 17, the Bengals were in line for a shocking early postseason exit. Buffalo’s 34-31 win over Miami was extremely deceiving. The Bills outgained the Dolphins in that contest by a massive margin 423-231 yards. The Dolphins were afforded short fields by way of 2 interception returns and a punt return. Miami also scored a defensive touchdown on a strip sack fumble return. Buffalo has been a highly scrutinized team despite their 14-3 season record which includes a current 8-game win streak. As a matter of fact, they’re 3 losses came by just a combined 3-points. Yet, because of the preseason hype which publicized them as a favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Bills have been labeled by many as an overrated team. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are a perfect 4-0 in home playoff games, and cover on both occasions that they were a favorite of 6.0 or less while winning by a enormous average of 22.0 points per game. NFL Playoff home favorites of 9.0 or less like Buffalo who are coming off a home favorite SU win in which they failed to cover, and there’s a total of 40.0 or greater, versus an opponent like Cincinnati who has a win percentage of .777 or worse, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin in those 5 contests came by an average of 20.0 points per game, and they covered those outings by an average of 16.1 points per occurrence. Give me Buffalo minus the points. |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs OVER 52 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
Jacksonville @ Kansas City 4:30 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Over 52.0 (10*) Since 1/20/2019, Kansas City has played 6-1 to the over in home playoff games with a total of 56.5 or less. Those 7 contests had an average total of 52.2 and there was a combined 66.1 points scored per game. Jacksonville has played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 non-division away underdog of 9.0 or less, and there was a total of 42.0 or greater. The Jaguars have also played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 when there was a total of 45.5 or greater, and there was a combined 63.0 points per game. The Jaguars enter this Divisional Round matchup riding a 6-game win streak. NFL Playoff teams like Jacksonville who have won 6 or more games in a row, and there was a total of 52.0 or greater, saw those situations play 4-0 to the over and there was a combined 62.3 points scored per occurrence since 2017. NFL Playoff home favorites of 4.5 or more like Kansas City that are coming off a bye, with a total of 42.0 or more, and they’re coming off 5 or more wins in a row, resulted in those situations playing 11-0 to the under since 1990. The average total in those games was 47.5 and there was a combined 55.5 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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01-14-23 | Iowa State +8.5 v. Kansas | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
Iowa State @ Kansas 4:00 PM ET Game# 709-710 Play On: Iowa State +8.5 (10*) There’s no denying how good the defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks are. The Jayhawks are 15-1 with their lone defeat coming versus a Tennessee who is a serious national title contender. However, since the 2020-2021 season, Kansas is 1-8 ATS in January home games with just a +1.3 point per game differential. Kansas is 2-0 at home in conference thus far but those victories over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State came by just a combined 6 points. Iowa State can be extremely frustrating to play against. They play at a snail’s pace offensively, are #6 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and #1 in forcing turnovers. This is also a very experienced Cyclones team that won’t be rattled by a hostile environment. Iowa State is coming off an 84-50 home blowout win over a solid Texas Tech team. That win improved their season record to 13-2 and includes 4-0 during Big 12 Conference games. Give me Iowa State plus the points. |
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01-08-23 | Lions v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
Detroit @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Green Bay -4.5 (10*) Detroit does come in having gone a red-hot 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. However, their defense has horrible against the run over the last 2 games while allowing a combined 520 yards rushing and a massive 8.0 yards per attempt. They will be up against it again against a the superb running back due of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Let’s start with the regular season home record of Green Bay. Since the beginning of the NFL 2019-2020 season, the Packers have gone an outstanding 27-4 SU (.871) and 21-10 ATS (68%) in regular season home games. Furthermore, Green Bay is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 NFC North Division home games. The average line in those games was -9.4 and they won by 19.5 points per contest. Green Bay will be playing with revenge from an earlier season 15-9 loss at Detroit in a game they outgained the Lions by a decisive 135 yards, and only to be victimized by 3 Aaron Rogers interceptions. That’s highly unlikely to occur again. Green Bay enters this regular season finale having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and in a position to guarantee an NFC Wildcard Playoff spot with a win over their division rival. Any NFL home favorite of 7.0 or less like Green Bay that’s playing in their final regular season finale, and they’ve won 4 or more games in a row, and they covered their previous contest against a division foe while doing so by 7.0 points or more, resulted in those home favorites of 7.0 or less going 6-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average point spread in those 6 contests was 5.0 and there was an substantial average victory margin of 23.2 points per game. Give me Green Bay minus the points. |
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01-01-23 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
Vikings @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Packers -3.0 (10*) The Packers will have a high degree of urgency and desperation with their playoff chances hanging in the balance. Since the beginning of the 2019-2020 NFL season, Green Bay has gone 26-4 SU (86.7%) and 20-10 (67%) during their regular season home games. During that exact time span, Green Bay was 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in NFC North Division home games. Additionally, and since the 2019-2020 NFL season began, Minnesota has gone 1-6 SU&ATS when they were a pick’em/underdog of 3.0 or less. They’ve also gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that exact role and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They had 2 such instances this year which resulted a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia and 34-23 defat at Detroit. NFL regular season home favorites of 3.0 or greater like the Packers who are playing after Game 14 and are coming off a win, and they possess a losing record, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a win percentage of .571 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 ATS since 1983. The average victory margin in those 7 contests came by 13.0 points per game. Give me Green Bay minus the points. |
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12-18-22 | Steelers v. Panthers -3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
Pittsburgh @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET Game# 319-320 Play On: Carolina -3.0 (5*) Carolina is coming off wins at Seattle and versus Denver in their previous 2 games. That improved their season record to 5-8 and only 1.0 game behind NFC South leading Tampa Bay. What was even more --impressive about those 2 wins was the Panthers ability to run the ball with a high degree of success. They rushed for a combined 361 yards in those 2 wins. The Panthers have gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those victories came by 10 points or more. They rushed for 173 yards or more in all 3 of those home wins. The Carolina defense has been outstanding over their previous 5 contests while allowing only 15.5 points and 283.0 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh offense that averages just 15.6 points scored per game on the road. The Steelers defense has allowed a combined 361 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt in their last 2 games. The Steelers are a deceiving 3-4 on the road this season when considering they’re at -8.8 points and -67.9 yards per game differential during those outings. Give me Carolina minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | Florida v. Oregon State -8 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*) This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses. Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC. Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers -3 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (-120) (10*) Forget about the San Francisco’s injury issues at quarterback. They will win this game by a comfortable margin with their stout defense and effectively running the ball on offense. The 49ers enter this week on a 5-games winning streak with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more and 4 of those by 13 points or greater. Even further impressive is the fact that their defense has allowed 11.4 points per game during this current win streak. Speaking of the 49ers defense, they rank #1 in both points and yards allowed per game. San Francisco has held 8 of 12 opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense this season. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in their last 8 and 10 of its previous 11 games. NFL home favorites of 4.5 or less like San Francisco that are playing before Game 15 and they’re coming off home wins in their last 2 games, and they’re not undefeated, versus teams like Tampa Bay coming off a win and they have a win percentage of between .384 and .727, resulted in those home favorites of 4.5 or less going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1983. The average margin of victory came by 13.0 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus the points. |
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12-04-22 | Dolphins v. 49ers -4 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: 49ers -4.0 (10*) Miami is extremely explosive offensively. Nonetheless, this will be that high scoring unit’s toughest task of the season up until now. The 49ers defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. They also yielded fewer than 300 yards on 8 separate occasions. Miami is currently on a 5-game win streak but all those beaten opponents currently have a losing record and a cumulative season record of 15-31-1 (.326). The Dolphins are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when facing teams that currently have a winning record. By the way, San Francisco has won its last 4 and outscored those opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Toledo v. Ohio +3 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*) These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession. Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year. |
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11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans +1.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
Bengals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Tennessee +1.5 (10*) Under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel, and since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 8-0 SU&ATS as regular season underdog of 1.5 to 6.5. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Titans are 11-1 SU&ATS in that identical role under Vrabel. Lastly, since the start of last season, the Titans are 4-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*) You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts. Give me Oregon State plus the points. |
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11-25-22 | Duke -4.5 v. Xavier | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Duke @ Xavier 3:30 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Duke -4.5 (10*) Xavier enters this Phil Knight Invitational Semifinal having in Portland. Oregon having scored an average of 85.8 points scored per game this season. The Musketeers have also allowed 81 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. College Basketball neutral site favorites versus an opponent that averages 84.0 or more points scored per game who also allowed 80 points or greater in each of their last 2 games, resulted in those favorites going 39-13 ATS (75%) since 1997. The average line for those favorites during those 37 contests was 5.8 and they outscored their opponents by an average of 10.2 points per game. Give me Duke minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys -10 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Game# 107-108 Play On: Dallas -10.0 (10*) Both teams are 7-3 but that’s where the similarity ends. Dallas is a legitimate contender to reach the Super Bowl and is getting better each week as the season has progressed. The Giants have been a nice story as they’ve vastly overachieved and the statistical numbers and analytic convincingly support those statements. Dallas is coming off a 40-3 win at Minnesota (8-2). While the Giants come off a home favorite SU loss to Detroit (4-6). NFL home favorites of 6.5 to 12 after Game 4 and are coming off an away win by 23 or more in which it scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponent (Giants) who is coming off a home favorite SU loss, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin came by 22.0 points per game. |
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11-23-22 | Kent State v. College of Charleston -2 | Top | 72-74 | Push | 0 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Kent State @ Charleston 6:00 PM ET Game# 693-694 Play On: Charleston -2.0 (10*) Kent State is 5-0 but they have played a substantially weaker schedule than 4-1 Charleston has faced. Charleston’s lone loss came at #1 North Carolina by 16 and they led that contest by 8 points at the half. Charleston has recorded quality wins over Davidson, Colorado State, and Virginia Tech. They’re battle tested and are a perfect 5-0 at home while covering 4 of those contests. Give me Charleston minus the small number. |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys -120 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
Dallas @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Dallas -120 (ML) (10*) This line jumped right off the board at me when it opened as a pick on Sunday night and quickly ascended to Dallas being a 1.5-point road favorite. Why did my reaction occur? Well, Minnesota is 8-1, Dallas 6-3, and it’s the home Vikings who come up underdog. It’s rarely as easy as it looks when it comes to sports betting, and this is a prime example of such. Most sports bettors would think it’s common sense to take the home underdog versus an opponent they are 2.0 games better than in the standings and especially so when it’s the 2nd half of a season. However, common sense is crucial in everyday life but usually loses you money in the long haul when applicable to sports wagering. Minnesota would have to lose the rest of their games to squander their NFC North Division lead, and even then, they still could possibly land on top. They’re also coming off what’s considered to be a statement win in overtime at Buffalo last Sunday. Unlike Dallas, their degree of urgency this Sunday will be much lower for Minnesota than that of the Cowboys in my professional opinion. It’s not an exact science when predicting who will be a more desperate team when it comes to NFL betting. Nonetheless, the human response element I expect from these teams on Sunday is more likely to occur in this situation. Currently, Dallas (6-3) is in 3rd place in the NFC East standing behind the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Giants. They have little room for error down the regular season stretch is they aspire to be the NFC East Division champ. So yes, their sense of urgency should and will probably be at a fever high pitch. Lastly, these teams have squared off in each of the previous 2 season, both were played at Minnesota, and Dallas won each SU as an underdog. Give me Dallas on the money line for my NFL 10* Game of the Year. |
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11-19-22 | USC -119 v. UCLA | Top | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
USC @ UCLA 8:00 PM ET Game# 391-392 Play On: USC -119 (10*) College Football away teams playing after Game 7 that are coming off a home win by 33 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent coming off a home loss, resulted in those road teams going 25-3 SU (89.2%) since 1984. Give me USC on the money line for my PAC-12 Game of the Year. |
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11-13-22 | Browns +4 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 6 m | Show |
Browns @ Dolphins 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Browns +4.0 (10*) Miami is currently on a 3-game win streak. However, those 3 victories came against Pittsburgh (2-6), Detroit (2-6), and Chicago (3-6) who have a combined season record of 7-18 (.280). Furthermore, all 3 of those wins came by 6 points or fewer. During their previous game which resulted in a 35-32 win at Chicago, they allowed the Bears to rush for 252 yards and an alarmingly high average of 6.3 yards per attempt. Miami will be facing Cleveland’s #3 rushing offense in the NFL that averages 164.6 yards per game on the ground and 5.0 yards per attempt. The only teams that rank higher than Cleveland in that department are the Bears and Ravens, and both have extremely mobile quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields) who have combined to rush for 1237 yards thus far this season. So, we can make a strong case that the Dolphins defense will be facing the best conventional rushing attack in the NFL. Cleveland is just 3-5 this season. However, 4 of their 5 losses came by just a combined 9 points. With a little bit of luck, they very easily could be 7-1. My point being, the Browns are a much better team than their record indicates. They’ll also enter this contest off a momentum building 32-13 home win over the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and did so as a 3.0-point home underdog. Additionally, the Browns are coming off their bye week while Miami played last Sunday. The Browns will be able to run the ball with a high degree of success and in turn dominate time of possession. Hence, limiting an explosive Dolphins offense in terms of number of possessions. By the way, Cleveland has gone 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5 or greater and won 3 of those 7 contests straight up. Their 4 SU losses in that situation all came by 5 points or fewer. Give me the Browns plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-12-22 | TCU v. Texas -7 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 2 m | Show |
TCU @ Texas 7:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Texas -7.0 (10*) I have preached to whomever will listen, “think like an oddsmaker”. By doing so, you will have a huge edge when compared with many sports bettors in terms of your ability to pick winners. If the season were to end today, the unbeaten 9-0 TCU Horned Frogs would be the #4 seed in the College Football Playoffs. Yet, here they are as a sizable underdog versus a Texas team which enters this matchup with just a 6-3 record. It’s worth noting, despite their 9-0 record, TCU has won 6 of its last 7 by 10 points or fewer. The sportsbooks thrive off bettors who make which are perceived to be obvious picks, and they will again after this contest goes final as well. College Football conference home favorites of between 2.5 to 10.0 (Texas) who have a win percentage of .875 or less, facing an undefeated team (TCU) that’s playing after Game 7 and they’re coming off a SU win by 12 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0-1 ATS and 14-0 SU since 1983. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by 15.6 points per contest. Give me Texas minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 49 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
Seattle @ Arizona 4:05 Game# 467-468 Play On: Over 49.0 (10*) Seattle has seen each of their previous 3 away games go over the total and there was an enormous average of 74.7 points per contest. Seattle is coming off a 27-13 home win over the New York Giants which has improved their season record to 5-3 (.625). Arizona has seen its last 2 go over the total with a combined average of 68.0 points scored per contest. The Cardinals are coming off last week’s 34-26 loss at Minnesota and they now find themselves with an uninspiring 3-4 (.375) season record. Since 2016, NFL teams with a total of 47.5 or greater who are playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off a home win by 13 or more points in which they scored 48 points or fewer, and their win percentage is between .600 to .750, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better (Arizona), resulted in those games playing 32-7 (82%) to the over. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-05-22 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
Central Florida @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET Game# 403-404 Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*) This has all the earmarks of a trap game for UCF. The Golden Knights are coming off last Saturday’s emotional 25-21 home win over perennial conference pow Cincinnati. Up next, they’ll travel to Tulane who ic currently the top ranked Group of Five team in the country. In between, it’s this Saturday’s matchup versus a 4-4 Memphis team who has lost each of their previous 3 contests. The good news for Tigers backers is their team is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming in fluky fashion after blowing a 32-19 lead with less than 2 minutes left versus Houston and they fell 33-32. No miracles or flukes this time. Give me Memphis plus the points for my College Football Top Play of the Week. |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams +1 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
San Francisco @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*) The Rams are coming off a bye week and were a 24-10 home winner over Carolina in their previous game. San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing 44-23 home loss to Kansas City which dropped their season record to a disappointing 3-4. NFL home teams (Rams) off a home win by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 21 points or greater (49ers) and they have a losing season record, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 1984. The average margin of victory in those 21 contests came by 11.0 points per game. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the current 1.0-point underdog LA Rams. Give me the LA Rams for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-29-22 | Wake Forest v. Louisville +3.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
Louisville @ Wake Forest 3:30 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Louisville +3.5 (10*) Wake Forest is coming off a 48-15 conference win at home over Boston College which improved their season record to 6-1. Louisville is coming off conference wins in each of their last 2 games and both came by double-digit margins. That improved their season record to 4-3. The Cardinals are showing positive signs regarding finishing this season strong. During their previous 4 games, Louisville is at an excellent +8 turnover margin and forced 13 turnovers by opponents. The Cardinals are just 15-13 SU in their last 21 at home, but that fits perfectly into the betting angle displayed below. Since 2018, college football home teams (Louisville) with a winning record that are +10.0 to -10.0 and are coming off back-to-back conference wins in which they allowed 33 points or fewer on each occasion, and they’ve won 23 or less of its previous 28 at home, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) with at least 1 loss on the season and coming off a conference win by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 14 contests came by 17.1 points per game. Give me Louisville plus the points. |
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10-23-22 | Colts v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Tennessee -2.5 (10*) Indianapolis is coming off 2 straight wins but there were red flags to take into consideration moving forward. The Colts allowed an average of 184.0 yards rushing per game in those 2 wins, and that doesn’t bode well for this matchup since they’ll be facing a great running back in Derrick Henry. Tennessee is coming off a bye week and that’s a noteworthy from a betting perspective. Since Mike Vrabel has been their head coach, the Titans have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in regular season games following a bye week, and with a substantial average victory margin of 20.5 points per contest. Tennessee has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Indianapolis and that includes a 24-17 road victory on just 3 weeks ago. The Titans were a 21-17 winner at Washington in their previous game and that made them 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. Since 2014, NFL teams (Titans) with a point-spread ranging from +2.5 to -3.0 with a win percentage of .510 to .600 that’s coming off a SU&ATS win, versus an opponent (Colts) with a win percentage of .571 to .750, resulted in those teams going 10-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin in those 10 contests was 13.1 points per game. Give me Tennessee minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-22-22 | Minnesota +5 v. Penn State | Top | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET Game# 409-410 Play On: Minnesota +5.0 (10*) Michigan exposed a huge weakness in the Penn State run defense last week while rushing for 418 yards including 7.6 yards per attempt. Minnesota will present them with similar challenges in attempting to stop the run. The Golden Gophers offensive rushing game has amassed 240 yards or more in 4 of 6 contests this season. Minnesota will get back on track in this one and wouldn’t be shocked if they won the game outright. We won’t get greedy. Give me Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
Cowboys @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Eagles -6.0 (10*) Dallas is coming off a 22-10 road win over the Rams. The Eagles are coming off a 20-17 win over Arizona and failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. That victory improved the Eagles record to a perfect 6-0. Philadelphia has now gone 16-16 SU in their last 32 games played. NFL home favorites of between 5.5 to 12.0 with a win percentage of better than .600 playing after Game 5 of the season, and they’re coming off an away win in which they scored 13 or more and allowed 24 or less and failed to cover, and they’ve won 24 or fewer of their last 32 games played versus an opponent who scored 31 or less in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 17-0 SU&ATS since 1982. The average margin of victory in those 17 contests came by an enormous 22.2 points per game. Give me the Eagles minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Nebraska v. Purdue -14 | Top | 37-43 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
Nebraska @ Purdue 7:30 ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Purdue -14.0 (10*) Nebraska started 1-3 but has bounced back to win their last 2 over Rutgers and Indiana. Don’t get carried away Cornhuskers fans as those 2 teams have combined to go 1-5 in Big 10 Conference play. This is the same Nebraska team that lost 49-14 to Oklahoma. Since then, Oklahoma lost its next 3 and were outscored by an average of 29.0 points per game. They also lost to Georgia Southern at home in a game they were a 23.5-point favorite and versus Northwestern in the Big 10 opener and once again as a double-digit favorite. Purdue is 4-2 on the season and is arguably one of the best 2-loss teams in the country. Their only losses came to #18 Syracuse (5-0) and #10 Penn State (5-0). As a matter of fact, those 2 defeats came by a combined 6 points. The Boilermakers are coming off back-to-back SU road underdog wins at Minnesota (4-1) and Maryland 4-2). Purdue has played a much tougher schedule than Nebraska at this point. The Boilermakers are much better than their record indicates, and they will make sure that’s known in this contest. Give me Purdue minus the points. |
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10-13-22 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
Mariners (Castillo) @ Astros (Valdez) 3:37 PM ET Game# 951-952 Play On: Over 6.5 (10*) Seattle has played 17-3 to the over in their last 20 road games following a loss. The Mariners have also played 8-2 to the over this season on the road following an off day, and that includes 4-0 over if they scored 6 runs or more in their previous outing. Additionally, there was a combined 13.0 runs scored per game in those previously mentioned 4 occurrences. The Mariners have played 6-1-1 to the over in their last 8 and there was a combined average of 11.9 runs scored per game. The Mariners bullpen has a terrible 8.18 ERA during their 3 postseason games thus far. The Astros Framber Valdez has gone 21-10 in his team starts this season. However, during his 2 starts versus Seattle he allowed 3 earned runs on both occasions. There were 5 combined home runs hit in Game 1 of this ALDS including 3 by Houston. Give me this game to go over the total. Any American League road team with a total of 7.0 or less that has a slugging percentage of .410 or less, and they’re coming off a game in which there was a combined 15 runs or more being scored, resulted in those games playing 34-10 (77.3%) to the over since 2018. There was a combined average of 9.1 runs scored per game in those previously mentioned 44 occurrences. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
Bengals @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Bengals +3.5 (10*) Baltimore is a mentality fragile team right now. They’re 0-2 at home this season while blowing leads of 17 versus Buffalo and 21 points against Miami in doing so. This will be their first meeting with Cincinnati this season after losing twice versus the Bengals last year by scores of 41-21 and 41-17. The Ravens defense has looked vulnerable in 3 of their 4 games this season and I look for Cincinnati’s offense to expose them once again. After starting the season with a pair of narrow 3-point losses, Cincinnati has roared back with 2 straight wins and covered both of those contests as a favorite. It worth noting the obvious of Cincinnati having 3 days more rest than Baltimore heading into this matchup. This is a Bengals team that’s also gone an extremely profitable 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS during its last 15 away games. That includes 9-0 ATS and 7-2 SU if they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests. Any NFL division road underdog of 3.5 or less that’s playing in Games 3 through 8, and is playing an opponent (Ravens) who will be playing with double revenge, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2009. Now only did the away dogs cover all 12 contests but they won all of them SU by an average of 11.0-points per game. Give me the Bengals plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-08-22 | Washington State v. USC -12.5 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
Washington State @ USC 7:30 PM ET Game# 367-368 Play On: USC -12.5 (10*) This USC team continues to get better every week under new head coach Lincoln Riley. If the Trojans have a glaring weakness, it’s defending the run. Conversely, although Washington’s offense has been productive in the air, the Cougars have struggled to get any consistency in their running game. During its 4 games versus FBS opponents this season, Washington State has averaged just 81.5 yards rushing per game while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt. During their only game versus a ranked opponent this season, Washington State allowed 44 points and surrendered 624 yards in a home loss to Oregon. Here's another key football handicapping component that stands out in this contest. Throughout their first 5 games, USC has yet to commit a turnover while also forcing opponents to turn it over 14 times. On the other hand, Washington State has committed 12 turnovers over their first 5 games. This isn’t a good matchup for the Washington State Cougars. Yes, the Cougars are 4-1 but their win have all come versus unranked teams that have been less than impressive to start their seasons. Any college football undefeated home favorite of -4.0 to -19.0 that’s coming off a home win, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those home favorites within this point-spread parameters going 11-0 ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 22.5 points per game. Give me USC minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians -109 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
Rays (McClanahan) @ Guardians (Bieber) 12:07 PM ET Game# 945-946 Play On: Guardians -109 (10*) These teams finished the regular season headed down opposite paths. Tampa Bay heads into the postseason having gone a dismal 8-18 in their last 26 games. Conversely, Cleveland finished regular season action a red-hot 24-6 in their last 30. The Rays finished up regular season play on a 9-game road trip which saw them go 2-7. Tampa is an awful 7-18 (.280) this season following 6 or more games on the road. Meanwhile, Cleveland played their last 10 regular season games at home. The Guardians are 23-10 (.697) this season following 5 or more consecutive games played at home. At one point this season lefthander Shane McClanahan may have been the frontrunner for the American CY Young Award. However, the Rays hurler is 0-3 during his last 3 teams starts with a sizable 7.07 ERA/1.64 WHIP and that certainly doesn’t equate to good form. McClanahan will be facing a Cleveland team that has gone a terrific 17-4 this season as a home favorite of -110 or greater when facing a lefthanded starting pitcher. The Tampa Bay bullpen has recently struggled as evidence by their staff 6.05 ERA/1.55 WHIP over its previous 7 games. As a matter of fact, the Rays bullpen has converted on a terrible 16 of 34 (47.1%) save opportunities on the road in 2022. One more final note, the Rays were a shiny 51-30 (.629) at home this season but went just 35-46 (.432) in away games. Shane Bieber has gone a stellar 20-11 in his teams starts this season with an exceptional 2.93 ERA/1.04 WHIP. Furthermore, Bieber is 5-1 in his previous 6 teams starts with an outstanding 2.20 ERA/0.85 EHIP. The Guardians bullpen has an excellent 0.99 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Cleveland’s bullpen has converted 21 of 25 (84%) save opportunities at home this season. Give me the Guardians on the money line. |
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10-02-22 | Patriots +10.5 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Patriots @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Patriots +10.5 (10*) I may be in the minority, but I’m not as high on New England starting quarterback Mac Jones as most others are. As a matter of fact, I truly believe that there’s very little drop off by going to the veteran Booby Hoyer who will get the start due to Jones being on the shelf with an ankle injury. New England is coming off last Sunday’s 37-26 home loss to Baltimore. Under Bill Belichick, New England has gone 26-6 SU&ATS following a loss in which they allowed 31 points or more. That also includes 13-1 SU in their last 14 if they’re coming off a home defeat. Green Bay is 2-1 thus far but it’s been the Packers defense that has far outplayed their offensive teammates. The Packers are averaging just 16.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, they are averaging 1.0 point scored per 22.2 yards gained which is terrible. They’ll be facing a solid New England defensive unit which is surrendering only 314.7 yards per game. NFL underdogs versus teams that average 17.0 or fewer points scored per game are 21-3 ATS (87.5%) since 2018. They also went 14-11 SU during those contests. Give me the Patriots plus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-01-22 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 57 m | Show |
Wake Forest @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: Florida State -6.5 (10*) Florida State is off to a 4-0 start to the season which includes wins over LSU (3-1) in a game played in New Orleans, and conference victories at Louisville as well as last week’s 44-14 blowout of Boston College. Wake Forest is coming off last Saturday’s emotional and heartbreaking 44-38 overtime loss to #5 ranked Clemson. There’s very little chance they can come close to matching the intensity level they exhibited last week, especially so because of the nature in which they lost, and now playing another national ranked team on the road. Additionally, this is an opportunity for Florida State to make a huge statement to the nation that Seminoles football is once again highly relevant. I think Florida State will be more than up to the task. Any college football home favorite (Florida State) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 71-25 ATS (74%) since 1992. Those home teams also went 93-5 SU during those contests and outscored the visiting teams by an average of 25.9 points per game. Give me Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play winner. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Bengals -4.0 (10*) Miami is coming off a physically grueling 21-19 home upset win over Buffalo. That game was played in extremely hot and humid conditions. Now they have a task of facing the AFC defending champion Cincinnati Bengals on the road and with just 3 days of rest. Stop and think for a second, we have a 3-0 Dolphins team that’s better than a field goal underdog, and they’re facing an opponent who’s 1-2. My educated guess is public betting will side with the underdog for just that reason alone. It’s very seldom that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. Like I’ve said on numerous occasions and it’s worth repeating. Think like an oddsmaker and you will be much better for it. By the way, since the start of last season, Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS when facing teams with a winning record. This will be their first game of the season versus a team with a winning record. The Bengals are coming off a much-needed 27-12 road win over the Jets while easily covering as a 6.5-point favorite. Any NFL non-division home favorite of 3.0 or more (Bengals) with a win percentage of .900 or less that’s playing after Game 3 of the season, versus an opponent (Dolphins) coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 1985. Give me the Bengals minus the points for my NFL Thursday Game of the Month. |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +2 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
San Francisco @ Denver 8:20 PM ET Game# 487-488 Play On: Denver +2.0 (10*) Denver has an extremely successful win rate when playing at home during the first 3 games of the season while going 38-9 SU (80.9%). Denver is coming off a 16-9 home win over Houston last Sunday but failed to cover as a sizable 10-5-point favorite. The 49ers are coming off an easy 27-7 home win over Seattle last week. NFL home teams that are coming off a SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 5, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a division win, resulted in those home teams going 26-3 SU (89.7%) since 1990. If their road opponent’s division win came by 9 points or more, that identical NFL SU betting angle improves to 14-0 SU since 1990. The straight up betting angle takes on added value because it backs the home underdog Denver Broncos in this matchup. Give me the Denver Broncos plus the small number for a 10* Top Play. |
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09-24-22 | USC v. Oregon State +6 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
USC @ Oregon State 9:30 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Oregon State +6.0 (10*) Oregon State is coming off a 68-28 win over Montana State which improved their season record to 3-0. Since 1980, any college football home team that’s 3-0 to start the season and is coming off a win by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-5 SU (90.7%). This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Oregon State Beavers in this matchup. USC is a +10 turnover differential during it 3-0 start, but Oregon State isn’t too shabby at +5 in that category. Give me Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Chicago @ Green Bay 8:20 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Green Bay -10.0 910*) Chicago is coming a 19-10 home win in their season opener last Sunday. However, we must avoid overreacting to that result especially after Green Bay’s double-digit defeat in their opening game. After all, Chicago is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Green Bay and they were outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game. Green Bay is coming off a 23-7 loss at Minnesota in a game they were thoroughly dominated. Before we stick a fork in the Packers after just 1 game, we must keep in mind how resilient this team has been following a regular season loss. Green Bay is 11-0 SU&ATS in their last 11 regular season games following a loss and won by an average of 13.4 points per contest. Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or more (Packers) that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, and they’re facing a team (Bears) coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorite going 39-12 ATS (76.4%) since 1991. Give me the Packers minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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09-17-22 | Mississippi State -130 v. LSU | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -130 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ LSU 6:00 PM ET Game# 167-168 Play On: Mississippi State -130 (10*) LSU opened as a 1.0-point favorite in this contest and were overvalued at that simply because of their brand name. Don’t be misled by their 65-17 home blowout win last week over an FCS team in Southern University. This is a team in transition under new head coach Brian Kelly and their roster and their 2 deep roster is filled with first year transfers. Mississippi State has looked terrific during their 2-0 starts with a 49-23 home win over Memphis in their season opener and then last week’s 39-17 blowout of Arizona on the road. The Bulldogs will be out to revenge a narrow 28-25 home loss to LSU a season ago. The Bulldogs have held their own in its last 4 trips to Baton Rouge going 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. The mad professor Mike Leach’s air raid attack has amassed a combined 770 yards passing in their first 2 games. Give me Mississippi State on the money line for a Top Play. |
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09-11-22 | Giants +5.5 v. Titans | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
NY Giants @ Tennessee 4:25 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: NY Giants +5.5 (10*) Tennessee has won 11 or more games in each of their previous 3 season. As a matter of fact, they were the AFC #1 seed last year entering the playoffs after recording a 12-5 regular season record. Nonetheless, their regular season win total over or under has dropped to 8.5. That speaks volumes to me regarding how the oddsmakers project the Titans to be a mediocre team at best. The Giants begin the Brian Daboll head coaching era on the road and as an underdog at Tennessee. Daboll inherits a team that went a poor 4-13 a season ago. As a matter of fact, since 2018, the Giants have gone a combined 19-46 and never won more than 6 games in a season. However, New York has gone an extremely profitable 12-2 ATS in their last 14 as an away underdog of 6.5 or less during that same time span. Any NFL Week 1 away underdog of 6.5 or less (Giants) who won 6 games or fewer in the previous season, resulted in those away underdogs going 45-13 (77.6%) since 2000. Give me the NY Giants plus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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09-10-22 | Tennessee v. Pittsburgh +6.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET Game# 347-348 Play On: Pittsburgh +6.5 (10*) Tennessee is coming off an encouraging 59-10 home blowout win in their season opener last Saturday and easily covered as a 37.0-point favorite. Regardless of that emphatic win, Tennessee has gone a dismal 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in their last 5 as an away favorite of 2.0 or greater. Pittsburgh is the higher ranked team, and the defending ACC champions. Yet, here they are as a touchdown underdog at home. Normally I would side with the sportsbooks in situations such as these, and then label it as a sucker play. Nevertheless, this is one of those very rare occasions I don’t have that mindset and falls under the category of there’s an exception to every sports betting rule. Recent seasons have displayed have shown me that when you disrespect Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers, it’s like poking the bear who was hibernating in his winter cave. Any college football Game 2 non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (Pittsburgh) that’s coming off a non-conference home SU win, but either pushed or failed to cover, versus an opponent (Tennessee) coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 2002. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 14 games outright. Give me Pittsburgh plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-03-22 | Army +2.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
Army @ Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: Army +2.5 (10*) Coastal Carolina returns only 7 starters from a program that’s won 11 games in each of their previous 2 quarterbacks. One of those returning starters is Grayson McCall but he won’t have the supporting cast he was afforded last season. Furthermore, Army is adept at dominating time of possession with their triple option running attack which in turn can keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Coastal ended last season on a streak of 21 consecutive weeks ranked in the Top 25. However, here they are as a short home favorite and the sportsbooks are begging you to take them. Army has gone a combined 18-7 the last 2 seasons under current head coach Jeff Monken. Last year concluded with a 24-22 bowl win over Missouri from the SEC. The Black Knights return 14 starters including 8 on offense. Army will control the clock with long time-consuming scoring drives which will frustrate the Chanticleers. Give me Army plus the small number for a Top Play. |
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08-31-22 | Mariners v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Mariners (Gonzalez) @ Tigers (Alexander) 7:10 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Over 8.5 (10*) Lefthander Tyler Alexander has displayed poor form over his last 3 starts while posting an 8.36 ERA/1.86 WHIP and allowed 5 homers in just 14.0 innings pitched. Detroit has seen its previous 4 all go over the total with a combined 13.7 runs scored per game. Seattle has gone 10-1-1 to the over during its last 12 on the road and there was a combined average of 10.5 runs scored per game and that includes 4-0-1 over if there was a total of 8.0 or less. The Mariners have played 19-9-1 to the over this season when facing a lefthanded starting pitcher. Marco Gonzalez has a lofty 1.61 WHIP 12 road starts this season. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager. |
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08-28-22 | Braves v. Cardinals -122 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Braves (Odorizz) @ Cardinals (Wainwright) 7:08 PM ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Cardinals -122 (10*) Jake Odorizzi is the weak link in Atlanta’s otherwise solid starting pitching rotation. Odorizzi has been in shaky form over his last 4 starts which is evidenced by a 1.63 WHIP during those outings. Veteran righthander Adam Wainwright has been tough at home during his career and this season is no different. Wainwright has compiled and excellent 2.11 ERA/1.03 WHIP in 13 home starts in 2022 while averaging a lofty 6.6 innings pitched per start. The Cardinals are a terrific 41-22 at home this season which included 30-11 as a money line favorite of -110 or greater and 11-2 if the money line is -100 to -150. Give me the Cardinals for a Top Play wager. |
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08-27-22 | Braves v. Cardinals +107 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 107 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Braves (Morton) @ Cardinals (Montgomery) 4:10 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Cardinals +107 (10*) Charlie Morton has been terrific at home this season. However, he’s 4-7 in his road team starts with a 5.08 ERA. As a matter of fact, during his last 2 road starts Morton has allowed an alarmingly high 9 earned runs in 11.0 innings pitched. The Braves have suffered 23% of their losses this season with Charlie Morton as their starting pitcher. The Cardinals are coming off an 11-4 home loss to Braves on Friday night. St. Louis has gone 7-0 in their last 7 immediately following a loss and won by an average of 4.8 runs per game. Since coming to St. Louis in a trade with the Yankees, Jordan Montgomery is a perfect 4-0 in his team starts with a magnificent 0.35 ERA. Despite Friday’s loss, St. Louis is still an excellent 40-22 at home this season and that includes 13-2 during its previous 15 at Busch Stadium. Give me the Cardinals as a Top Play money line underdog. |
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08-27-22 | Washington Commanders v. Ravens -6 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 23 m | Show |
Commanders @ Ravens 7:00 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Ravens -6.0 Washington has gone a dismal 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as a preseason underdog and lost by an average margin of 16.0 points per game. That includes 0-3 ATS (-17.7 PPG) under current head coach Ron Rivera. Since 2016, Baltimore has gone an incredible 22-0 SU and 20-1-1 ATS in their preseason games under present head coach John Harbaugh. As a matter of fact, since Harbaugh was appointed as the Ravens head coach in 2008, Baltimore has gone 42-12 SU (.778) and 39-14-1 ATS (74%) in their preseason games. Since 2017, Baltimore is 4-0 SU&ATS in preseason action when facing Washington and won by an average of 19.3 points per game. Finally, Baltimore has unequivocally more quality depth on its roster which is always a key component when handicapping preseason action since starters see limited to very little playing time. |
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08-15-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Diamondbacks (Bumgarner) @ Giants (Cobb) 9:45 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Over 7.5 (-120) (10*) Alex Cobb has made 3 career starts versus Arizon and all have taken place since last season. During those outings Cobb posted a large 7.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. The Giants bullpen has a poor 5.66 ERA/1.84 WHIP over their last 7 games and that includes 6 home runs allowed in just 20 2/3 innings pitched. San Francisco has played 8-3-1 to the over in their last 12 games. The Giants have an excellent .345 team on-base-percentage throughout its previous 7 games. Madison Bumgarner has displayed bad form over his last 3 starts while compiling a 6.62 ERA/1.81 WHIP. Bumgarner returns to his old stomping grounds in San Francisco where he enjoyed many great campaigns. However, during his 2 starts as a visitor, Bumgarner has a lofty 6.00 ERA. Arizona is averaging a healthy 5.2 runs scored per game in their last 13 outings. The Diamondbacks are coming off a 3-game series at Coors Field which saw each go under the total. Since the start of last season, Arizona has played 17-3 to the over immediately following 3 consecutive games going under. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager. |
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07-31-22 | Diamondbacks v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
Diamondbacks (Kelly) @ Braves (Fried) 1:35 PM ET Game# 951-952 Play On: Under 8.0 (5*) Merrill Kelly has displayed dominating form over his last 3 starts while collecting a 1.29 ERA/0.76 WHIP and averaged 7.0 innings pitched per outing. It should come as no surprise when pointing out that all 3 of those games went under the total. As a matter of fact, Kelly has pitched 6.0 innings or more during each of his last 9 starts. Kelly is also 7-2 in his road team starts this season with a more than respectable 3.18 ERA/1.14 WHIP. Conversely, Arizona has gone a terrible 11-25 on the road whenever Kelly wasn’t their starting pitcher. Heading into the weekend, the Arizona bullpen had a sparkling 2.25 ERA/1.00 WHIP during its previous 7 games. As of games played through Friday 7/29, Atlanta had played 12-2 (83%) to the under in their last 14 at home. Max Fried has a stellar 2.73 ERA/1.09 WHIP in 12 home starts this season while averaging 6.3 innings pitched per outing. The Braves bullpen has a shiny 1.08 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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07-30-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Dodgers (Kershaw) @ Rockies (Freeland) 8:10 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Over 11.0 (-106) (10*) Despite this game being played at Coors Field, this is an extremely high total for a game in which Clayton Kershaw is one of the starting pitchers. They’re begging you to take the under in this matchup and I’m not falling for the bait. Truth be told, Kershaw has made 1 start both this year and last at Coors, and he posted a terrible 10.24 ERA/2.48 WHIP during those 2 outings. Kershaw does possess a sparkling 2.49 ERA this season. However, Colorado has played 23-6 to the over since the start of last season when facing a National League starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or less. Since 2019, Kyle Freeland is 1-5 during his home team starts versus the Dodgers with a 7.10 ERA/1.55 WHIP and he allowed 7 home runs in 31 2/3 innings pitched. The Dodgers won Game 2 of this series last night 5-4 and it went under the total of 11.5. The Dodgers have played 6-1 to the over during their last 7 following an under in its previous game, and there was a combined average of 12.3 runs scored per occurrence. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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07-29-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Brewers (Woodruff) @ Red Sox (Bello) 7:10 PM ET Game# 977-978 Play On: Brewers -1.5 (+100) (5*) Brayan Bello has made 3 starts this season and all have come since 7/6. During those 3 outings Bello posted an alarmingly high 10.50 ERA/2.50 WHIP. The Red Sox bullpen has an awful 8.10 ERA/1.80 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. Despite yesterday’s 4-3 win over Cleveland, Boston is still a dismal 5-15 in their last 20 games and includes 1-7 during its previous 8. On the other hand, Milwaukee enters today having won 5 of its previous 6 games and they scored 6 runs or more in all 5 wins. The Brewers last played on Wednesday when they recorded a 10-4 win over Minnesota. Since the start of last season, Milwaukee has gone an extremely profitable 25-9 on the road immediately following a win by 4 runs or more. Brandon Woodruff has displayed good form over his last 5 starts while collecting a 2.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP during that stretch. Give me the Brewers on the run line. |
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07-25-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Braves (Fried) @ Phillies (Suarez) 7:05 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Braves -1.5 (-109) (10*) Rangers Suarez has made 2 starts versus Atlanta this season and was highly ineffective in both. During those 2 outings, Suarez posted a 7.36 ERA/1.64 WHIP in 11.0 innings pitched. The Phillies bullpen has posted a lofty 5.56 ERA over their last 7 games. Philadelphia enters today having lost their last 3 and 7 of its previous 10 games. Atlanta is coming off yesterday’s 9-1 home loss to the Angels. However, the Braves have gone 10-0 in their last 10 following a loss and outscored their opponents by an average of 4.3 runs per game. As a matter of fact, Atlanta hasn’t lost 2 consecutive games since 6/18. Since the start of last season, Atlanta has gone an extremely profitable 41-14 as a money line road favorite of -125 or greater. Max Fried is 6-1 in his road team starts this season with a terrific 2.51 ERA/0.79 WHIP and averaged 6.7 innings pitched per outing. The current total on this game is 8.0. Fried is a superb 21-3 in his team starts since last season whenever there was a total of 8.0 or 8.5. Give me the Braves on the run line for a Top Play. |
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07-24-22 | Cardinals -131 v. Reds | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -131 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
Cardinals (Mikolas) @ Reds (Mahle) 1:40 PM ET Game# 905-906 Play On: Cardinals -131 (10*) We have the better starting pitcher and bullpen in Sunday’s matchup of NL Central foes. Miles Mikolas has been as consistent as they come in 2022 while posting a 2.54 ERA/0.96 WHIP throughout 19 starts. Mikolas has also been a workhouse while averaging 6.3 innings pitched per start over those 19 outings. The Cardinals hurler has gone 25-8 in his career team starts during day games. St. Louis has gone an extremely profitable 32-14 this season as a money line favorite of -110 or greater. Furthermore, since the start of last season, the Cardinals are 30-10 as a money line road favorite of -110 or greater and won by 2.3 runs per game. Cincinnati is a dismal 5-23 this season when facing National League teams that allow 4.0 or fewer runs scored per game, and they outscored by a decisive 3.0 runs per outing. Tyler Mahle has gone 1-9 in his home team starts this season with a lofty 1.51 WHIP while doing so. The Reds bullpen is atrocious and can’t be trusted. Give me the Cardinals on the money line for a Top Play wager. |
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07-23-22 | Cubs v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Cubs (Stroman) @ Phillies (Wheeler) 6:05 PM ET Game# 951-952 Play On: Under 8.0 (10*) The Cubs won 15-2 at Philadelphia last night in a game that easily went over the total. However, the Cubs have played 16-5 to the under in their last 21 after going over in their previous game. Conversely, Philadelphia has played 6-0 to the under in their last 6 following an over during its previous game. Despite yesterday’s 15-run scoring output, the Cubs have scored 3 runs or fewer in 13 of its last 16 games. This will be the first start of the season made against Philadelphia by Marcus Stroman. The veteran right-hander made 4 versus the Phillies last season and was dominant during those appearances. Stroman posted a combined 1.89 ERA, and all 4 games went under the total. Furthermore, in 5 starts on the road this year, Stroman has compiled an excellent 1.24 ERA/0.79 WHIP. The Cubs bullpen has a cumulative 2.30 ERA/1.14 WHIP throughout its last 7 games. Philadelphia continues to struggle offensively having scored only 30 runs in their last 10, including 1 game where they scored 10 runs, and that means the Phillies averaged a mere 2.2 runs in the other 9 games. Zack Wheeler has been excellent in 9 home starts this season with an 1.62 ERA/0.84 WHIP and averaged 6.2 innings pitched per outing. Marcus Stroman has a 1.15 WHIP in 11 starts this season. The Phillies have played 19-6 to the under since the start of last season when facing a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or better. Conversely, Zack Wheeler has a 1.08 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The Cubs have played 9-1 to the under on the road this season when facing a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or better. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager. |
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07-22-22 | Astros v. Mariners +114 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Astros (Urquidy) @ Mariners (Gonzalez) 10:10 PM ET Game# 925-926 Play On: Mariners +114 (10*) The Astros are coming off yesterday’s doubleheader sweep against their bitter rival New York Yankees. Nonetheless, Houston is 0-3 in their last 3 following wins in each of their previous 2 games. Now the Astros head on the road to take on the hottest team in baseball that hasn’t played since last Sunday. Seattle has won 14 consecutive games as well as going a tremendous 22-3 during their previous 25. Jose Urquidy is 0-3 during his 3 team starts versus Seattle this year with a massive 10.38 ERA and 2.62 WHIP. Urquidy also has a lofty 5.20 ERA in 10 road starts this season. Marco Gonzalez has been tough in 3 starts versus Houston this season with a 2.56 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The Mariners bullpen has a superb 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in their last 7 games. You may be surprised to know that Seattle is 11-7 at home versus Houston since 2020 and includes 4-2 in 2022. Give me the Mariners as a Top Play money line wager. |
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07-16-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
Red Sox (Pivetta) @ Yankees (Taillon) 7:15 PM ET Game# 977-978 Play On: Over 8.5 (10*) Nick Pivetta has been brutal during his last 2 starts while allowing 13 earned runs in 9.0 innings pitched. Pivetta has made 2 starts versus the Yankees this season and recorded a large 10.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. Boston has played 6-2 to the over in their last 8 and there was a combined average of 10.6 runs scored per game. James Taillon has been in poor form over his previous 4 starts with a 8.57 ERA, 2.38 WHIP, and surrendered 7 home runs in just 21.0 innings pitched. Taillon was tagged for 6 earned runs in 5.0 innings in a game at Fenway Park just last week. The usually reliable Yankees bullpen has been shaky of late with a staff 5.72 ERA throughout its last 7 games. The Yankees have played 7-1 to the over during its last 8 games and there was a combined average of 13.1 runs scored per game. |
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07-15-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Mariners (Ray) @ Texas (Bush) 8:05 PM ET Game# 923-924 Play On: Mariners -1.5 (+110) (10*) Texas will be reeling after blowing a 5-1 leading heading into the 7th inning during last night’s 6-5 loss to Seattle. Conversely, the Mariners have now won 11 straight and 19 of its last 22 games. That successful stretch also has seen Seattle go 10-1 on the road. Since 2020, Seattle has dominated Texas while going 26-10 versus the Rangers. Michael Bush has made 3 starts this season and went just 1.0 inning on each occasion. So. Texas will attempt to piece this game together with a bullpen that has a sizable staff 6.68 ERA throughout the previous 7 days. Robbie Ray has been brilliant over his last 6 starts with a 0.91 ERA/0.73 WHIP and averaged 6.6 innings pitched per start. Rays has made 1 start this season and 1 last while posting a 2.89 ERA/0.96 WHIP. The Mariners bullpen has an excellent 1.61 ERA/1.00 WHIP during its previous 7 games. The Mariners are brimming with confidence after winning their last 11 and 19 of its previous 22 games. Give me the Mariners on the run line for a Top Play wager. |
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07-12-22 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Dodgers (White) @ Cardinals (Liberatore) 7:45 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Under 9.0 (10*) St. Louis has gone under the total in their last 9 and averaged a paltry 1.9 runs scored per game. Additionally, during that 9 game stretch they were shutout 4 times. Mathew Liberatore has made 2 home starts this season and allowed 0 earned runs in 10.0 innings pitched. The Cardinals bullpen has been outstanding over their previous 7 games while posting a 0.84 ERA as a staff. Mitch White has seen each of his previous 4 starts go under the total and his 1.86 over that stretch was a major reason why. The Dodgers bullpen has a brilliant 0.85 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. The Dodgers have witnessed only 33.3% of their 42 road games going over the total. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager. |
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07-10-22 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
Marlins (Alcantara) @ Mets (Walker) 1:40 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Under 7.0 (10*) Sandy Alcantara is the best kept secret in baseball due to the franchise that he pitches for. Alcantara has posted a brilliant 1.82 ERA and 0.91 ERA in 17 starts this season while averaging a lofty 7.3 innings pitched per outing. Since the start of last season, Alcantara has pitched 15-3 to the under in his starts versus division opponents and there was only a combined average of 5.8 runs scored per game. Tijuan Walker has pitched 4-1 to the under at home this season with a superb 1.86 ERA. Walker has also pitched 5-0 to the under in day games this season with a spectacular 0.53 ERA and averaged 6.8 innings per outing. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager. |
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07-07-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Rockies (Gomber) @ Diamondbacks (Keuchel) 9:40 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Over 9.5 (10*) Austin Gomber has a horrible 11.12 ERA over his last 5 starts. He doesn’t figure to get much help from a Rockies bullpen that has recorded a 5.26 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and allowed 5 home runs in 25 2/3 innings pitched throughout their previous 7 games. Colorado is currently a money line favorite of -115 in this matchup. The Rockies have played 13-4 to the over this season as a money line favorite of -110 or greater and there were a combined 13.6 runs scored per game. Dallas Keuchel has a massive 12.92 ERA and 2.54 WHIP throughout his previous 4 starts. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a lofty 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Arizona has averaged 5.7 runs scored per game in their last 7. The Diamondbacks have played 7-2-1 to the over in their last 10 and there were a combined 11.6 runs scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager. |
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07-06-22 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Nationals (Gray) @ Phillies (Nola) 7:05 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Under 8.0 (10*) Josiah Gray has been very good in 7 road starts this season with a 2.01 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Despite the Nationals 11-0 loss yesterday that went over the total, they have played 8-4-1 to the under in their last 13 games. Gray has made 1 starts versus Philadelphia this season and pitched 6.0 innings of scoreless baseball. Aaron Nola has been brilliant during his previous 5 starts while compiling a 1.70 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and averaging 7.4 innings pitched per outing. The often-criticized Phillies bullpen has been lights out throughout their previous 7 games with a staff 1.17 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Nola will be facing a Washington team that has been outscored by an alarmingly high 1.6 runs per game this season. Nola has pitched 19-6 (76%) to the under in his career when facing teams that are being outscored by 1.0 or more runs per game on the season. Nola has made 1 start versus Washington in 2022 and pitched 8.0 innings of scoreless baseball. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager. |
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07-05-22 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
Rays (Springs) @ Red Sox (Pivetta) 7:10 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Under 9.5 (10*) These teams have played each other 4 times this season and each went under the total with a combined average of 5.7 runs scored per game. Boston has played 16-7-2 to the under in division games this season. Conversely, Tampa Bay has played 19-12 to the under in division games this year. Nick Pivetta has made 4 career starts versus Tampa Bay and all came last season. He was very good during those outing while posting a 2.95 ERA and 3 of those 4 games stayed under the total. Pivetta has been superb during his last 4 starts overall with a 1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. The Rays Jeffrey Spring is 8-2 in his team starts this season with a solid 2.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 54:10 strikeout to walk ratio. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play. |
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07-02-22 | White Sox v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
White Sox (Cease) @ Giants (Webb) 4:05 PM ET Game# 977-978 Play On: Under 7.0 (10*) The White Sox have played 7-1 to the under in their last 8 games. Dylan Cease has been outstanding over his last 6 starts with a microscopic 0.26 ERA. The White Sox bullpen has a very good 2.00 ERA during its previous 7 games. Logan Webb has been in excellent form over his last 3 starts with a 0.45 ERA and averaged 6.7 innings pitched per start. The Giants bullpen has a shiny 2.01 ERA throughout their last 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play. |
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07-01-22 | Marlins v. Nationals -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
Marlins (Rogers) @ Nationals (Gray) 6:05 PM ET Game# 903-904 Play On: Nationals -128 (10*) The Marlins Trevon Rogers has shown bad form over his last 3 starts while recording a 6.92 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Miami is coming off a 4-3 win at St. Louis. The Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 away games following a road win. Since 4/28, Miami has won 2 consecutive road games just once. The Marlins offense has been anemic over their last 7 while averaging a mere 2.7 runs per game. Despite their poor season record, Washington has gone a more than respectable 6-3 in their last 9 games. After a terrible start to the season, Josiah Gray has figured it out in recent starts. Specifically speaking, Gray has a brilliant 1.24 ERA and 0.97 WHIP throughout his previous 5 starts. The Washington bullpen has struggled on the road this season. However, at home the Nationals relievers has a solid 3.24 ERA. Washington is 7.0 games behind Miami in the NL East standings and have lost 8 of 9 versus the Marlins this year. Yet, they’re a money line favorite in this spot. The oddsmakers will never be mistaken as being generous. They’re begging you to take the underdog. Well, I’m not taking the bait. Give me the Nationals on the money line for a 10* Top Play. |
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06-30-22 | Yankees -117 v. Astros | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Yankees (Severino) @ Astros (Garcia) 6:10 PM ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Yankees -117 (10*) Luis Garcia has allowed 7 home runs during just 33.0 innings pitched at home this season while posting a lofty 5.28 ERA. That doesn’t bode well for Houston’s chances today considering the Yankees have hit 126 home runs which leads all of MLB. The Astros bullpen has been terrific for the beter part of the first half of this season. Nevertheless, they’ve been slumping over its last 7 games with a staff 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. During that span, Houston relief pitchers have walked 15 in 15 1/3 innings pitched and surrendered 3 home runs. Luis Severino has made 4 starts versus Houston since 2018 and had a stellar 2.39 ERA while averaging 6.6 innings pitched per start. The Yankees bullpen has been fantastic over their last 7 games while recording a 0.78 ERA as a staff. The Yankees are 47-12 (.797) this season whenever there was a total of 7.0 to 8.5. Give me the Yankees on the money line for a Top Play. |
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06-27-22 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Orioles (Wells) @ Mariners (Kirby) 10:10 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Under 7.5 (10*) Tyler Wells is 5-0 during his last 5 team starts with a superb 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The Orioles bullpen has been lights out throughout their previous 7 games with a staff 1.11 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and they converted on all 4 of their save opportunities. Baltimore has gone under the total in each of their last 7 games. George Kirby has a more than respectable 3.12 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 9 starts this season. What stands out the most to me is Kirby’s 47:6 strikeout to walk ratio. The Seattle bullpen has a brilliant staff 0.44 ERA and has converted all 3 of its save opportunities throughout their previous 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play. |
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06-26-22 | Dodgers -107 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
Dodgers (Gonsolin) @ Braves (Strider) 7:08 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Dodgers -107 (10*) Spence Strider has an uninspiring 5.40 ERA in 5 starts this season. The Braves bullpen has been borderline average over their previous 7 games. The Dodgers entered this weekend’s action on a 4-game win streak in which they outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 30-12. The Dodgers are also an outstanding 18-8 during their previous 26 road games. Tony Gonsolin has compiled an excellent 1.58 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Furthermore, the Dodgers have gone 6-0 in their last 6 games when Tony Gonsolin is their starting pitcher. The Dodgers bullpen has posted a stellar 2.42 ERA and 0.96 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. Give me the Dodgers for a money line Top Play. |