Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-14-22 | Sevilla v. FC Copenhagen OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Kobenhavn and Sevilla at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's Champions League clash with deficiencies at the back end and I'm confident we'll see plenty of offensive fireworks in Copenhagen. Sevilla, despite playing in often goal-starved La Liga, has gone its last six matches without recording a single clean sheet. Of those six contests, five found their way 'over' 2.5 total goals. It's a similar story for Kobenhavn as it has seen eight of its last 10 contests sail 'over' 2.5 total goals. With that being said, both sides were actually shut out in their most recent Champions League matches. Sitting pointless at the bottom of the Group G standings, looking up at the likes of Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund (who also square off on Wednesday) you can understand why both sides would 'go for it' in this contest. A 2-1 result is the most likely outcome in my opinion and that's enough to push this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time the Dodgers posted an 'over' result. I don't expect that streak to continue on Monday, however. Los Angeles will send Tyler Anderson to the hill on Monday. The left-hander has enjoyed a career year and hasn't shown any signs of wear in the latter stages of the campaign as he's gone seven innings in three of his last four starts (and allowed just one earned run over 5 1/3 innings in the other). Anderson checks in sporting a 3.16 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 13 road starts this season and has allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings in two outings against the D'Backs. Rookie Ryne Nelson (a top-10 prospect in the D'Backs organization) will counter for Arizona. He was masterful in his big league debut, tossing seven shutout innings against the Padres, on the road no less. While I do expect the Dodgers to inflict some damage tonight, I simply feel that this total has been set too high given the high potential that Anderson and the L.A. bullpen shut down the D'Backs offense. Take the under (8*). |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks OVER 44 | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Few believe the Seahawks will be able to mount any sort of offense against the Broncos vaunted defense on Monday night, certainly not with journeyman QB Geno Smith at the helm. While I don't envision Seattle staging an upset victory here, I do think it can contribute enough offense to help this one 'over' the reasonably priced total. First, let's talk about the Broncos. Denver's offense figures to be much improved with QB Russell Wilson representing a massive upgrade over Drew Lock, who is now the Seahawks backup QB. Wilson has a full compliment of weapons at his disposal to star the season with among the best 1-2 tandems both in the backfield and at the wide receiver position. On the flip side, the Broncos are a little banged-up on defense and could be vulnerable against the run in particular. That plays into the hands of what the Seahawks want to do and that's pound the football. Note that while most consider Geno Smith dust at this stage of his career, he did make three starts last season and showed a good rapport with WR DK Metcalf in particular, hooking up with him for 251 yards and four scores. Expect some offensive fireworks on Monday. Take the over (8*). |
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09-11-22 | Browns v. Panthers UNDER 42 | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is one of the lowest posted totals on the Week 1 NFL board and it's warranted in my opinion. Cleveland's offense is likely going to be severely limited until QB Deshaun Watson can make his debut following an 11-game suspension. Jacoby Brissett has proven to be a serviceable backup QB but this is a far-from-ideal matchup as he sees his first true game action with his new team against what I consider to be an underrated Panthers defense. Carolina's pass rush should be able to camp out in the Browns backfield, should Cleveland elect to throw the ball often. The more likely game script from the Browns will involve plenty of running with the backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That's just fine as it helps keep the clock moving. Carolina will have a revenge-minded Baker Mayfield under center as he was named the starting quarterback in August. I'm not counting on a whole lot of splash plays from the Panthers aerial attack. It's basically a one-man show when it comes to the Carolina receiving corps with D.J. Moore likely to see the bulk of the targets but also the majority of the attention from Browns elite cornerback Denzel Ward. Christian McCaffrey is the x-factor for the Panthers offense and all indications are that he's healthy entering the 2022 campaign. Expect the Browns to funnel their defense to Carolina's elite dual-threat running back and should the Panthers elect to keep the ball on the ground or employ a short pass-centric attack, that only helps to keep the clock moving and effectively shortens this game. Take the under (8*). |
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09-11-22 | Eagles v. Lions OVER 48.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be one of the most entertaining games on the Week 1 board. While we're dealing with a reasonably high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Philadelphia is well-positioned to smash in this spot offensively. The Lions are an intriguing sleeper pick in the NFC North this season but that optimism has a lot more to do with their offense than their defense. That defense might just be awful and certainly doesn't get better after losing pass rusher Romeo Okwara to the PUP list. Philadelphia's offense should take flight in Jalen Hurts' second year as the starting QB. He'll be given plenty of help with an improved cast of receivers led by one of the best in the game in A.J. Brown. Perhaps what isn't getting enough attention is the strength of the Eagles offensive line, which should help give Hurts the opportunity to put up monster numbers this season. RB Miles Sanders and WR Devonta Smith are two keys at the skill positions that aren't being talked about enough in this offense either and set up well to go off in this particular matchup. Defensively, the Eagles are stout at the back-end but appear average at best up front and in the middle of the field. That plays right into the hands of a Lions offense that has two gamebreakers in RB De'Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown that are adept at attacking the middle of the football field. With Swift back healthy he's in for a monster season, operating behind an underrated Lions offensive line. I'm higher on QB Jared Goff than some, feeling that he's an excellent fit in this offense. We certainly saw him build terrific chemistry with St. Brown down the stretch last year (he had few other options to throw to at the time) and I'm confident that duo will pick up right where they left off here. While I like the Eagles to win this game, the Lions will undoubtedly be a 'tough out' playing in front of a rare packed house at Ford Field. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-22 | Mississippi State v. Arizona OVER 58.5 | Top | 39-17 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 24 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Mississippi State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Saturday. We won with Mississippi State in its rout of Memphis last Saturday but I'll shift gears this week and back the 'over' as the Bulldogs take their show on the road to face upstart Arizona in Tucson. There was a lot to like about the Bulldogs offense last week as it scored four touchdowns in the game's first 28 minutes before adding three more in the second half. I liked the way they kept their foot on the gas for four quarters (what else would you expect from a Mike Leach offense?), tacking on a touchdown in the game's closing minutes after Memphis had narrowed the gap to 42-23 less than a minute earlier. The Mississippi State defense was able to pin its ears back and attack the Memphis offense after jumping ahead earlier. I expect a different game script to unfold this time around, however. That's because Arizona actually has a legitimate football team this year, as evidenced by last week's stunning 38-20 rout of San Diego State (the Aztecs were opening their brand new home stadium making the victory that much more impressive). The Wildcats offense looked much different with QB Jayden De Laura under center and UTEP transfer WR Jacob Cowing blowing the top off the Aztecs defense. De Laura threw for just shy of 300 yards and four touchdowns in the victory. San Diego State wasn't able to mount any sort of offensive attack but I think that had more to do with transfer QB Braxton Burmeister looking lost in his first game running a new offense (trailing by two touchdowns early in the second quarter didn't help the Aztecs as they're generally a front-running team that likes to pound the football and control the clock). Different story here as this matchup has true shootout potential. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-22 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 8-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We saw last night's series-opener creep 'over' the total in extra innings. The Dodgers haven't posted an 'under' result since back on August 31st while the Padres are now riding a three-game 'over' streak. I look for a reversal of those trends here. Julio Urias will take the ball for Los Angeles. He's been terrific against the Padres this year, facing them twice and giving up just two earned runs on four hits in 11 innings of work. Likewise for Padres starter Blake Snell against the Dodgers. He struck out 12 over five innings in L.A. back on July 1st. He also struck out 10 in 7 2/3 innings at home against the Dodgers last August. Both starters bring excellent recent form into this start with Urias allowing just four earned runs over his last six starts and Snell giving up one earned run over 12 innings in his last two outings. Both bullpens rate among the best in baseball. Take the under (8*). |
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09-10-22 | Arizona State v. Oklahoma State UNDER 58 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 81 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Oklahoma State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed (badly) with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's season-opener against Central Michigan last week as the Cowboys got off to a red hot start and rolled to a 58-44 victory. I can't help but feel Oklahoma State was somewhat embarrassed by its defensive effort in that game though and look for a much cleaner performance against Arizona State this week. Note that Central Michigan threw the football 49 times in that contest. The Cowboys are likely to see nothing of that sort this week as Arizona State QB Emory Jones is as much a threat on the ground as through the air, the polar opposite of what they saw against Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson last week. I'm confident we'll see Oklahoma State's athletic defense contain Jones for the most part on Saturday. Arizona State cruised to a 40-3 win over Northern Arizona in its opener last week. We're talking about a Sun Devils offense going through an overhaul this season and while hanging 40 points on the board was no small feat, even against an FCS opponent, there was some cause for concern. Note that ASU didn't reach the end zone until nearly midway the second quarter in that game and proceeded to stall out and settle for field goals on three drives in NAU territory in the second half. ASU didn't reach the end zone again after scoring a touchdown less than three minutes into the second half. Again, it faces a much tougher challenge this week. Defensively, credit the Sun Devils for not giving an inch against the Lumberjacks - they easily could have gotten complacent after building an insurmountable lead. They yielded just 119 total yards and only six first downs in that contest. Their mettle will undoubtedly be tested this week but this is a talented unit that I believe can hang with the Cowboys offense. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Oklahoma State has come off an 'over' result, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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09-10-22 | Kentucky v. Florida UNDER 53 | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 103 h 31 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and Florida at 7 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter Saturday's showdown in the Swamp off to 1-0 records. This rivalry has produced plenty of relatively low-scoring contests over the years. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time the two teams totalled more than 50 points. While Florida certainly impressed offensively behind a tremendous performance from QB Anthony Richardson in last week's upset win over Utah, it won't benefit from the same element of surprise against the Wildcats. It's not as if Florida tore through the Utes defense last Saturday. In fact, it only managed to score 14 points through the game's first three quarters. I came away impressed by the Gators defense as they allowed an early touchdown in the first four minutes but then held the Utes out of the end zone until the closing seconds of the third quarter. They also came up with a game-clinching interception in the end zone as the clock ticked down in the fourth quarter. Here, the Gators will benefit from facing a Kentucky offense that is reworking its offensive line after a host of departures (it yielded four sacks to QB Will Levis in the opener) and also dealing with the absence of standout RB Chris Rodriguez. Kentucky did score 37 points in last week's victory but that came against a middling MAC squad in Miami-Ohio. The Wildcats scored a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then didn't reach the end zone on offense again until being gifted terrific field position thanks to a Redhawks turnover early in the third quarter (they did return the second half kickoff for a touchdown as well). On the flip side, Kentucky gave up a touchdown in the first six minutes of that game but then held Miami-Ohio out of the end zone for the game's final 54 minutes. I can't help but feel the Wildcats defense is well ahead of the offense at this early stage of the season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-22 | Memphis v. Navy OVER 51 | Top | 37-13 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 1 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Navy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped since opening, an overreaction to Navy's ugly 14-7 loss to FCS squad Delaware in its season-opener last week. Here, I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair as the Midshipmen look to avenge last year's 35-17 rout at the hands of Memphis. The Tigers dropped a 49-23 decision at Mississippi State last Saturday (we won with the Bulldogs in that game). Their defense, which struggled last year, has lost a number of key parts and it certainly showed against Mississippi State as they gave up five touchdowns in the first 35 minutes. Even when the game had long been decided, the Bulldogs were able to tack on two touchdowns in the final six minutes of the fourth quarter. The good news is, Memphis did manage to score 20+ points despite going entirely one-dimensional early on. RB Jeyvon Ducker - a transfer from Northern Illinois - was a bright spot, running for 63 yards and a score on just five carries. I do think the potential is there for the Tigers offense to go off against an average Navy defense that certainly doesn't get better by losing a talent like Diego Fagot to the NFL. Fagot isn't the only departure from a Navy defense that wasn't all that great to begin with last year (as I mentioned earlier, the Midshipmen gave up 35 points in last year's matchup against Memphis). Navy's offense was putrid against Delaware last week. There's no reason to expect the Midshipmen to be that bad offensively here in 2022. They did gain 319 total yards in that setback and had 17 first downs compared to Delaware's 13. Three failed fourth down conversions contributed to Navy's downfall in that contest. I believe the potential is there for this one to go back-and-forth all afternoon long and we're being offered a favorable total to work with when you consider last year's meeting saw a closing number of 56. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-22 | Southern Miss v. Miami-FL UNDER 55 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 100 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Southern Miss and Miami at 12 noon et on Saturday. Miami scored a whopping 70 points in its season-opening win over FCS squad Bethune-Cookman - a statement performance for a team that enters the 2022 campaign with sky-high expectations. While the Hurricanes should stay undefeated here, I don't expect them to find the going nearly as easy offensively. Bethune-Cookman quite simply couldn't keep its offense on the field early in last week's game, allowing 42 points in the first half alone. I do think Southern Miss can do a better job of that with an effective ground attack led by Frank Gore Jr., who ran for 178 yards on 32 carries in last week's triple-overtime loss to Liberty. The Golden Eagles beefed up their offensive line through the transfer portal during the offseason and it appeared to pay immediate dividends as they gave up just one sack and ran for 252 yards as a team in the season-opener. While they were able to move the football, the question remains whether the Golden Eagles offense can score with any sort of consistency. They didn't find the end zone until nearly five minutes into the third quarter against Liberty. That was one of just two offensive touchdowns in the entire game, which included three overtime periods. Now they face a Miami squad that gave up just one touchdown last week and that came after the game was already well in hand midway through the second quarter (28-3 was the score at that time). Defensively, I'll give Southern Miss some credit. It didn't yield a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half against Liberty last week. While Miami poses a much more difficult challenge, I'm confident USM can at the very least keep the final score respectable, lending itself to a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating. Take the under (8*). |
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09-09-22 | Boise State v. New Mexico UNDER 45.5 | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 86 h 10 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and New Mexico at 9 pm et on Friday. This total has already dropped from the opener and I believe the move is warranted. Boise State was stunned 34-17 on the road against Oregon State in its season-opener last Saturday. While most are expecting the Broncos to take out their frustrations on a hapless New Mexico squad on Friday (and that very well could happen), I'm not anticipating a shootout. The Broncos actually benched QB Hank Bachmeier after a shaky start against the Beavers last week. While this might look like an ideal bounce-back spot at first glance, Boise State can ill afford to overlook the Lobos, who are coming off a 41-0 rout of FCS squad Maine last week. While it's highly unlikely we see New Mexico hang another crooked number on the scoreboard, I'm confident its defense can hang. This is an experienced and talented group that got off to about as good of a start as you could hope for, holding Maine to just 118 total yards in the shutout victory. Boise State didn't even manage to score a point until a field goal nearly three minutes into the third quarter against Oregon State. It didn't find the end zone until the final three minutes of that third quarter, when the game was already all but out of reach. This isn't the same Boise State offensive juggernaut that we've seen in years' past. While their offense remains a question mark, I certainly expect a better performance from the Broncos defense this week. New Mexico did put up 41 points in its season-opening win but it was actually held scoreless through the first quarter and there weren't a whole lot of explosive plays. Kansas transfer QB Miles Kendrick threw for only 170 yards, the Lobos leading rusher tallied just 58 yards and their top receiver racked up only 54 yards. Maine simply couldn't get off the field defensively but we can anticipate a much different story playing out here, noting that Boise State shut out New Mexico in last year's meeting. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams OVER 52 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. For the second straight year, the NFL has scheduled a potential shootout in the Thursday night opener as the Bills head to Los Angeles to challenge the defending Super Bowl champion Rams. Buffalo loses offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the Giants head coaching job but I expect the train to keep rolling with Ken Dorsey, who has been working with the offense and Josh Allen in particular for the last three seasons, taking over the play-calling reins. Not much should change as far as the Bills offensive gameplan. They want to play fast and put the ball in the hands of their playmakers, led by WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, who many have pegged for a breakout season given Buffalo's offseason departures at the position. I like the addition of second-round draft pick, RB James Cook, who should add another element to the Bills short passing game. While the Rams are thought of as an elite defensive team, they actually proved vulnerable against the better passing attacks they faced last year, with little help in the secondary around standout corner Jalen Ramsey. The Rams offense catches a break with the Bills missing their top corner in Tre'Davious White. Rams WR Cooper Kupp presents a mismatch for most opposing defenses and the Bills are no different. While Buffalo's offense continues to get better with each passing year, its defense doesn't get better by losing White to the PUP list. Keep an eye on Rams offseason acquisition, WR Allen Robinson, who has to be ecstatic to get out of Chicago and into this ultra-efficient offense led by QB Matt Stafford. While not always flashy, the Rams offense is capable of keeping pace with the Bills in this passing-friendly environment indoors at SoFi Stadium on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-22 | Arsenal v. Zurich OVER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Zurich and Arsenal at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. This has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring matches on Thursday's Europa League board. Zurich brings a streak of seven consecutive matches finding the back of the net and I'm confident that run will remain intact here. Note that Arsenal has conceded in three consecutive matches. The Gunners have also seen each of their last five matches total 3+ goals. The same goes for Zurich in four of its last five contests. The Swiss side will obviously have its hands full here as Arsenal has shown that quick-strike ability, scoring first in eight of its last 10 matches. I feel that Zurich will be able to answer on its home soil, helping send this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-06-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in the series-opener between these two teams last night. The D'Backs did their part scoring five runs but the Padres were held off the scoreboard entirely. Here, I look for San Diego to bounce back offensively as it sees Arizona starter Merrill Kelly for the third time this season. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, both bullpens have struggled lately. The D'Backs relief corps entered this series sporting a collective 6.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. San Diego's 'pen had posted a 7.98 ERA and 2.07 WHIP over the same stretch. While Padres starter Joe Musgrove is thought of as an elite pitcher, the opposition has scored 10, 8, 7, 7, 4, 3, 1, 5 and 4 runs in his last eight trips to the hill. The D'Backs will be seeing Musgrove for the second time this season and the fourth time since the start of last year, plating eight earned runs on 18 hits over 17 innings in their three previous games against him over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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09-05-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 7-4 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. This series-opener pits two starting pitchers that we generally like to support. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair at Chavez Ravine on Monday night. Logan Webb will take the ball for the Giants. His recent results have been a mixed bag but we know he can pitch well against the Dodgers as he has posted a 3.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 10 career outings against them. On the season, Webb owns a 3.19 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing 3.6 runs per nine innings. Andrew Heaney got off to a tremendous start to his Dodgers career after returning from injury earlier this season but has since struggled. I'm still confident in his ability to right the ship, noting that he has recorded a 3.29 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in 46 2/3 innings pitched this season. The Giants bullpen entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games while the Dodgers relief corps posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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09-05-22 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We'll take a flyer on Astros rookie starter Hunter Brown on Monday but we'll do so by playing the 'under' in this divisional matchup. Brown has logged 100+ innings at the AAA level this season and he's fared exceptionally well, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while allowing a paltry 0.4 home runs per nine innings. He should pitch confidently knowing that the bullpen behind him has been lights out, recording a 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday's actoin. Martin Perez will take the ball for Texas. He's struggled in his last two outings against the Astros but does have a stellar start here in Houston to his credit this season, tossing a complete game shutout at Minute Maid Park back on May 20th. Perez owns a 3.32 FIP and 1.23 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 3.3 runs per nine innings. While the Rangers bullpen has struggled lately, it did turn things around with four shutout innings in yesterday's game in Boston. Entering that contest, the Rangers 'pen had logged a respectable 3.39 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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09-05-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres just had their lunch handed to them by the Dodgers over the weekend and limp home for a favorable matchup against rookie Ryne Nelson, making his first big league start, and the D'Backs. Nelson hasn't fared well at the AAA level this season, posting a 5.43 ERA and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Behind him is an unreliable D'Backs bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games. Speaking of bullpens, the Padres relief corps recorded a 7.29 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the same stretch. That unit will be working behind starter Blake Snell on Monday. Snell has turned his season around but still owns a less than impressive 1.32 WHIP and allows north of 4.0 runs per nine innings. The Snakes haven't fared well against Snell in his five career starts against them but they've yet to face him this season. Note that Arizona checks in averaging 4.8 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, compared to its 4.4 rpg season scoring average (entering yesterday's action). Take the over (10*). |
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09-05-22 | Toronto v. Hamilton UNDER 49.5 | 28-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Hamilton at 1 pm et on Monday. This is a rematch of a meeting between these two teams just last week as the Argos rolled to a 37-20 home victory. The Ti-Cats were marred by four critical turnovers in that game, directly leading to Toronto hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. I expect a more cautious approach from the Hamilton offense here. The Ti-Cats know they can manage the Argos offense - provided they don't hand them excellent field position time and time again. Note that Toronto amassed only 337 total yards in last week's victory. Hamilton has held 10 of its 11 opponents to 90 or fewer rushing yards this season while allowing more than 25 pass completions only once in those 11 contests. While the Argos defense has been vulnerable at times, I'm not convinced the Ti-Cats can take full advantage. Hamilton's ground game has fizzled since ripping off 149 yards against Toronto on August 12th. In two games since, the Ti-Cats have managed just 68 yards on 15 carries against Montreal and 64 yards on 20 attempts last week against the Argos. Take the under (8*). |
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09-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan UNDER 44.5 | Top | 20-18 | Win | 100 | 100 h 16 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Saskatchewan at 6 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this total sets up on Sunday as the Blue Bombers and Roughriders meet for the first time in the 2022 season. Last year's three matchups between these two teams totalled 31, 42 and 38 points, with the latter result coming in the West Division Final. The Blue Bombers enter this game off one of their worst defensive efforts of the season, yet they still won that game by a 31-29 score over Calgary. In that contest, the Stampeders turned in a near perfect offensive performance, running for 115 yards on 18 attempts while completing 23-of-28 passes for 294 yards. They still 'only' scored 29 points. I don't envision the Riders improving or even coming close to reaching those numbers here. Saskatchewan performed about as well as anyone could have expected as it staged a 23-16 upset at B.C. last week. The Riders ran for 164 yards on 23 rush attempts and completed 19-of-24 passes for 321 yards in that victory. Again, Saskatchewan was that efficient offensively but still scored 'only' 23 points. Winnipeg has leaned heavily on its ground attack this season as its passing game hasn't been quite as effective or explosive as we've seen in years' past. The Bombers have ripped off 118+ rushing yards in four straight games entering this contest. The Riders present a difficult challenge in that regard, however, as they've given up 100+ rushing yards only twice in seven games this season - that's despite the fact that they've lost four of seven contests. This is actually a more critical matchup in the West Division than it might appear at first glance. While the Blue bombers sit atop the West Division at 6-1, with a loss here, the Riders would pull within two games of them noting that these two teams will meet two more times in September. With that in mind, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair, which lends itself to a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday afternoon in Regina. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-22 | A's v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
My selection is on the first five innings ‘over’ between Oakland and Baltimore at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. |
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09-03-22 | NC State v. East Carolina UNDER 52 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and East Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday. While this one is being priced as a potential shootout, I think we could be in for something closer resembling a slugfest. N.C. State has high hopes entering the 2022 campaign and if you’ve followed this program over the years, you know that high expectations aren’t always a good thing in Raleigh. While the offense does get standout QB Devin Leary back, his supporting cast needs some work. You don’t get better by losing an offensive line anchor like Ikem Ekwonu, who has moved on to greener pastures with the Carolina Panthers. This is also an offense that needs to have the ground game going to truly take off and the Wolfpack lose their top two running backs from a year ago. Unlike the offense, the defense should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Only 13 teams in the entire country finished ahead of N.C. State in terms of points per game allowed last season. The potential is there to be even better this year with a ton of returning talent and experience across the board. East Carolina carries a reputation of being an explosive offensive team that doesn’t play a lick of defense. That may have been true a number of years ago but isn’t necessarily the case anymore. Sure, the Pirates can score, but like N.C. State they’ll be working in plenty of new parts outside of QB Holton Ahlers. One thing is for sure, the Pirates want to run the football and will undoubtedly be looking to control the time of possession and effectively shorten this game to give themselves the best chance of staging an upset as a sizeable underdog against a nationally-ranked opponent on Saturday. ECU hasn’t been able to hang its hat on its defense for years. That could change in 2022 though. Even without any semblance of a pass rush, the Pirates were able to hang around the middle of the pack in the AAC from a defensive standpoint last year. Now the experience and talent is there to take a big step forward. As I mentioned earlier, the Wolfpack aren’t exactly working with a full cupboard in terms of offensive talent, at least not at this early stage of the season, and I see this as a matchup the Pirates defense can handle in Week 1. Take the under (8*). |
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09-02-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 49.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I don't believe we're in store for a shootout like we saw between these two teams in their first meeting this season - a game that totalled 73 points back in July. Note that Ottawa has scored more than 25 points in a game only once this season, that coming in that 40-33 loss to Montreal. Meanwhile, the Alouettes had put up 20 points or fewer in three consecutive games before scoring 29 in a one-point win over a sagging Hamilton defense last time out. Montreal hasn't had any semblance of a ground attack this season and now faces an Ottawa squad that has put together a terrific stretch in terms of pass defense, allowing just 14, 16 and 14 pass completions over its last three games. On the flip side, Ottawa attempted 33 passes against a bad Elks defense last week but could only muster 252 passing yards. The RedBlacks have passed for 300+ yards only once this season. That was against the Als but I'm confident Montreal will make the necessary adjustments here. Take the under (8*). |
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09-02-22 | Virginia Tech v. Old Dominion UNDER 50 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Old Dominion at 7 pm et on Friday. It's not going to be easy for Virginia Tech to replace do-it-all QB Braxton Burmeister this season (he transferred to San Diego State). Not only that but the Hokies have a new offensive coordinator in Tyler Bowen who will look to jumpstart an offense that sputtered at the best of times last year. Not only is Burmeister gone but so are the Hokies top two wide receivers from a year ago. While I do like former Temple standout Jadan Blue, he like new QB Grant Wells, will take some time to get acclimated with the new offense. To put it simply, there are just too many new parts to expect this offense to rock right out of the gates in 2022. The good news is, the Hokies defense has a lot more returning faces to a group that was solid a year ago and has the potential to be special here in 2022. The secondary could be an early weakness but I'm not convinced Old Dominion will be able to take full advantage. The Monarchs do have plenty of returnees on offense but this is still an ACC vs. Sun Belt matchup so don't count on an offensive explosion here in Week 1. ODU knows the path to an upset win here is controlling the tempo and controlling the clock and I think it can do that to some extent thanks in large part to four of five returning starters on the offensive line and a terrific backfield tandem in Blake Watson and Elijah Davis. ODU's defense struggled against the pass a year ago, but again, I'm not sure the Hokies have the pieces in place to take advantage here in Week 1. This is without question an average Monarchs defense but it will benefit from matching up against a very average Hokies offense here. Take the under (8*). |
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09-02-22 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Friday night in Cincinnati. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for Colorado. He checks in with a 4.50 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season, allowing 5.26 runs per nine innings. Note that the Reds will be out for revenge against the left-hander after being held to just one earned run over seven innings against him back in May. Despite the Reds poor showing at the plate in that game, we still saw 11 total runs. Luis Cessa gets the start for Cincinnati. This will be his first home start of the season. I don't expect it to go well, noting that he's been tagged for 1.9 home runs per nine innings and now has to pitch at a hitter-friendly park. Note that Cessa sports a 5.50 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while yielding 5.77 runs per nine innings this season. Neither bullpen has been reliable this season. The Rockies relief corps entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.24 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Reds 'pen owns a 4.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at home. Take the over (10*). |
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09-01-22 | Central Michigan v. Oklahoma State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 44-58 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 24 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Thursday. It may surprise you to find out that Central Michigan finished 24th in the entire country in total offense last season. So perhaps it's understandable that we're dealing with a total just shy of 60 in this season-opener against Oklahoma State. The issue for the Chips this year, as if often the case with these smaller schools, is roster turnover. Last year's standout WR Kalil Pimpleton is trying out for the Detroit Lions. The offensive line lost a pair of tackles to the NFL. There are going to be some growing pains early on but I do think the Chips can at the very least move the football consistently enough to keep the offense on the field for extended stretches, even in the face of a fierce defensive opponent in Oklahoma State. One thing is for sure, Central Michigan will have little interest in getting involved in a high-scoring shootout here in Week 1. The uglier the game, the better the chances of the Chips staging a massive upset. Not unlike the offense, the CMU defense will be missing a number of key pieces from last year's group. It's not a surprising that a number of the Chips top defenders from a year ago were hot commodities in the transfer portal (and the NFL Draft) as this is a unit that ranked tops in the entire country in tackles for loss. Interestingly, the secondary was the weakness last year but could turn out to be a strength here in 2022. I don't anticipate the Chips defense trying to be too cute in this difficult matchup, instead look for a gameplan that will involve keeping everything in front of them in an effort to keep the Cowboys explosive offense in check. Oklahoma State has had a tendency to get off to slow starts offensively in recent years, putting up 16 points in a win over Tulsa two years ago and 23 points in a victory over FCS squad Missouri State in last season's opener. The return of QB Spencer Sanders will have most expecting the Cowboys offense to come storming out of the gate. I do think there were enough offseason losses to warrant some pause as far as expectations go, at least in Week 1. The Cowboys lose two starters on the offensive line including current Philadelphia Eagle Josh Sills. Top wide receiver Tay Martin is off to the NFL as well. That's not to mention the absence of standout RB duo Jaylen Warren and Dezmon Jackson. No team registered more sacks last season than Oklahoma State and while there are a number of notable departures on defense, those returning and those shuffling in are exceptional. The return of Trace Ford from injury only adds to an already dominant pass rush. Let's keep it brief by saying there are just enough key pieces moving on to allow the Chips to at least have a hope of moving the chains and ultimately keeping the Oklahoma State offense off the field long enough to help keep this one 'under' the generous total, but don't expect any miracles from the CMU offense. Take the under (10*). |
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08-30-22 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 3-12 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair to open this series last night but I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the visiting Phillies. He's quietly put together a tremendous 2022 campaign having recorded a 2.68 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.1 runs per nine innings. With Zack Wheeler on the shelf, he'll need to step up for the Phillies as the anchor of their starting rotation down the stretch. Note that Nola checks in with a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 12 road outings this season. Zac Gallen will counter for Arizona. He's having a fantastic season in his own right, posting a 3.25 FIP and 0.97 WHIP while yielding just 2.92 runs per nine frames. Gallen did get rocked for four earned runs in just 1 2/3 innings against the Phillies earlier this season but that start came back in early June and it came on the road. Here at home, Gallen has recorded a 2.92 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 12 starts this season. While neither bullpen has been lights out lately, I'm confident in both of tonight's starters' ability to work deep into this ball game and minimize the effect of the relief corps'. I also simply feel we'll see the pendulum swing back in favor of the pitching staffs after last night's offensive showcase. Take the under (8*). |
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08-30-22 | Mariners v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this non-division matchup sets up as a low-scoring affair on Tuesday as the Mariners hand the ball to impressive rookie George Kirby against Matt Manning of the Tigers. Kirby checks in sporting a 3.19 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings this season. He deserved a better fate in his most recent outing as he allowed just one earned run while striking out nine over seven innings in an eventual 3-1 loss to the Nationals. Note that Kirby owns a 3.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in eight previous road outings this season. Detroit will give Matt Manning another turn in the starting rotation. He's certainly deserving of the spot as he owns a 3.23 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 38 innings of work this season. Manning has allowed only 2.37 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been reasonably effective lately with the Mariners relief corps sporting a collective 3.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games and the Tigers 'pen posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-22 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. We'll back the 'under' but in the first five innings only in this N.L. West showdown on Monday night in San Francisco. Mike Clevinger will take the ball for the visiting Padres. He's been bitten by the home run ball at times but for the most part has held up well this season, posting a 4.32 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while yielding 3.7 runs per nine innings. Note that he's faced the Giants twice previously in his career, most recently in 2020 when he tossed seven shutout innings. San Francisco just isn't hitting right now, having plated three runs or fewer in five consecutive games. The Giants will turn to their ace Carlos Rodon for Monday's series-opener. He's quietly been one of the best starters in baseball this season, recording a 2.25 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing only 2.87 runs per nine innings. The Padres have seen the left-hander twice already this season and have yet to figure him out, scoring just three earned runs in 15 innings against him. We'll look to avoid both bullpens in this one as those two units have been overworked lately and neither has been all that reliable in this setting (the Padres on the road and the Giants at home). Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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08-27-22 | Nevada v. New Mexico State UNDER 53.5 | Top | 23-12 | Win | 100 | 272 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and New Mexico State at 2 pm et on Saturday August 27th. This total has been dropping since opening in the mid-to-high 50's but I believe we still have plenty of wiggle room at the current number. We actually cashed with the 'under' in New Mexico's season-opener last year and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Nevada isn't the same team that lit it up under the leadership of dynamic duo QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs in recent years. Both have moved on with Doubs currently turning heads at Green Bay Packers training camp. Projected starting QB this year, Nate Cox was charged with a DUI earlier this summer, leaving his availability in question leading up to the season-opener. It's no sure thing that he'll even lock up the starting QB job, regardless of his legal trouble, even after he received some playing time during the regular season and started the Wolf Pack's Bowl game last year. I would anticipate the Wolf Pack leaning heavily on their experienced 1-2 punch at running back, at least early in the campaign. Their defense should also be ahead of the offense in the early stages of the campaign, even though that unit loses plenty of talent from last year's team. It was a deep defense a year ago with plenty of experienced players ready to step in and take on bigger roles this year. DT Dom Peterson is an anchor up front while Michigan transfer at CB, Darion Warren-Green should lead the back-end. New Mexico State is coming off another lost season in 2021 and the potential is there for this to be a down year as well, before the Aggies finally find a home in Conference-USA next season. New Mexico State has another QB battle brewing in August but that's not necessarily a good thing as that only means that no one seems capable or ready to step up and take the reins. Expect NMSU to once again rely on pounding the football behind an offensive line that returns three starters from a year ago. New head coach Jerry Kill has a run-first mentality and with a questionable-at-best aerial attack, there's even more reason to keep the ball on the ground early this season. The Aggies return eight starters from last year's defense. Whether that's a good or bad thing is up for debate considering just how bad that unit was in 2021. I'm willing to be a little more optimistic than most as I like the pieces the Aggies have in place on the line and in the linebacking corps. The question is whether the secondary can hold up, but this is a favorable matchup against a rebuilding Nevada passing game that still isn't set on a starting QB, and whose best talent might be Arizona transfer WR B.J. Casteel who is learning a new offense and will have had precious few reps with whoever ends up the starter at QB. Take the under (10*). |
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08-27-22 | Yankees v. A's OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Oakland at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the first five innings 'under' in last night's game between these two teams but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the full game 'over' on Saturday. Domingo German will take the ball for New York. He's coming off a solid outing against the Mets but his overall numbers this season aren't great as he's posted a 4.54 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing 4.15 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Saturday will be Adam Oller of the A's. He checks in sporting a 6.44 FIP and 1.69 WHIP while yielding a whopping 6.86 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Oller is an A's bullpen that has struggled, particularly here at home where it has recorded a collective 4.47 ERA and 1.44 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing eight. The Yankees bullpen is obviously elite but has yielded seven earned runs over the last seven games, so not invincible lately. Take the over (8*). |
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08-27-22 | Charlotte v. Florida Atlantic OVER 56.5 | 13-43 | Loss | -110 | 269 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Saturday August 27th. This has the potential to be one of the few shootouts on the board in Week 0 action. Charlotte returns most of the key parts from last year's offense which showed flashes of brilliance over the course of the season. Of course, playing in C-USA where defense is optional, it helps to have some explosiveness on offense and the 49ers have just that with dual-threat returning QB Chris Reynolds and all three of his top receivers from last season in Victor Tucker, Grant DuBose and Elijah Spencer. The duo of Tucker and DuBose has the potential to be one of the best WR tandems in the conference. The 49ers also boast two excellent running backs with Calvin Camp and Shadrick Byrd. The potential is there for more big gains out of the backfield running behind an experienced offensive line that returns four starters from a year ago. Defense was a problem for Charlotte last year and likely will be again in 2022. The 49ers get just one of their top four tacklers back from a year ago. This is a group that doesn't look all that bad on paper but there are no true standouts that can really knock the likes of a Florida Atlantic offense off course. The Owls still have a bitter taste in their mouths after falling apart late last season, losing their final four games to miss out on Bowl eligibility. There's plenty of reason for optimism heading into 2022, however, as QB N'Kosi Perry comes back for a sixth season to lead an offense that's brimming with talent. While Perry can sling it and has plenty of returnees to work with at the wide receiver position, I believe the Owls ground attack could be its strength early on. Watch out for RB Johnny Ford who broke off better than 6.0 yards per rush last year and will run behind an offensive line that figures to be much-improved with four returning starters. I believe the FAU secondary could be an issue in the early going with standout CB Zyon Gilbert having moved on to the NFL. There will be plenty of green defensive backs left on an island for the Owls in this one and that doesn't bode well against the 49ers loaded WR corps that can blow the top off even the best of secondaries. Take the over (9*). |
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08-26-22 | Saskatchewan v. BC UNDER 46.5 | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and B.C. at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total in this rematch of last week's 28-10 Lions victory in Saskatchewan. Part of that has to do with the low-scoring nature of last week's game but more of it has to do with the injury to Lions MVP candidate QB Nathan Rourke. Rourke has done it all for the Lions this season, pacing an offense that has scored 28+ points in five of seven games. Michael O'Connor will take over at quarterback. While he's been in the CFL since 2019, he's only seen limited game action and is by no means the dual threat that Rourke has proven to be (O'Connor has a career seven rush yards on six attempts). He's completed 9-of-12 passes this season but has tossed an interception. The offense will without question be scaled back somewhat this week at least. The Riders meanwhile are dealing with a cluster of ankle injuries at the wide receiver position. That leaves a struggling Cody Fajardo with few reliable options - a recipe for disaster against a fierce Lions defense. Perhaps we'll see the Riders get back to running the football after all but abandoning that part of their offense in last week's blowout loss. That would of course play into our hands by helping to keep the clock moving. Note that the 'under' is 49-25 in the Riders last 74 games when listed as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 7.0 points, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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08-26-22 | Yankees v. A's UNDER 7 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between New York and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. After a slugfest in last night’s series-opener, I like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up to produce a low-scoring first five innings on Friday night in Oakland. Gerrit Cole will get the nod for the visiting Yankees. He’s having another terrific season, posting a 3.20 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. Cole last faced the A’s right here in Oakland last season, tossing six shutout innings. Former Yankee (he was a key piece coming over to the A’s in the Frankie Montas trade) JP Sears will start for Oakland. He’s done nothing but impress since joining Oakland and on the season owns a 3.39 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 1.93 runs per nine innings (small sample size of 37 1/3 innings, I know). By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid two bullpens that entered this series in only average recent form, relatively speaking. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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08-26-22 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I expect plenty of offense in this Pennsylvania showdown on Friday as the Pirates send Bryse Wilson to the mound against Bailey Falter of the Phillies. Wilson hasn’t been good this season. That may be oversimplifying things but facts are facts. Wilson checks in with a 5.24 FIP And 1.44 WHIP while allowing a whopping 6.55 runs per nine innings. He’s actually coming off one of his best starts of the season, allowing three earned runs over seven innings against the Reds. I’m not counting on a repeat performance against a tougher opponent here. Falter has endured a rough rookie campaign, posting a 5.50 FIP and 1.29 WHIP, yielding 5.0 runs per nine innings. Like Wilson, Falter is also coming off one of his best outings of the season, holding the Mets to one earned run over six innings. He still owns a 4.74 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in four home starts. The bullpens might be an even bigger issue in this matchup. Pittsburgh’s relief corps has recorded a collective 7.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games. The Phillies ‘pen entered last night’s action sporting a collective 5.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-22 | Diamondbacks v. Royals UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Arizona and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the ‘over’ thanks to a late scoring flurry last night but I like the chances of seeing a low-scoring start to Wednesday’s contest as we have two of the more underrated starters in baseball - this season at least - going head-to-head. Zac Gallen will get the start for Arizona. He has worked 21 1/3 scoreless innings over his last there starts, lowering his FIP to 3.26 and his WHIP to 0.97. Yielding just north of 3.0 runs per nine innings, he’s a fringe N.L. Cy Young Award candidate. The issue with the D’Backs is their bullpen, which owns an ERA north of eight and a WHIP approaching two over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Speaking of struggling bullpens, the Royals relief corps recorded a collective 4.56 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over that same stretch. You can understand why I’m looking to avoid those two ‘pens and play the first five innings ‘under’ only in this one. Brady Singer takes the ball for Kansas City. He owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while giving up 3.44 runs per nine innings this season. The Royals last three opponents with Singer on the mound have combined to score just four runs. He’ll have the advantage of facing the D’Backs for the first time in his career on Wednesday. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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08-24-22 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair in the opener of this series last night and I anticipate seeing more of the same on Wednesday. The Blue Jays beat up on Red Sox rookie starter Josh Winckowski last night and should be pleased to face another rookie hurler on Wednesday in Brayan Bello. Bello struggled mightily in three starts, including one against Toronto, before going on the shelf due to injury. In 17 big league innings pitched this season he's logged a 3.65 FIP and an ugly 2.29 WHIP, allowing a ridiculous 14.8 hits and 5.8 walks per nine innings (small sample size, I know). His only saving grace is that he hasn't allowed a home run. That should change tonight. Jose Berrios will take the ball for the visiting Blue Jays. He's not exactly having a banner year - far from it, in fact. He checks in with a 4.88 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while allowing 5.46 runs per nine innings. The Red Sox will have the advantage of seeing him for the third time this season. The Blue Jays bullpen has held up well lately but certainly hasn't been invincible on the road where it has converted 12 saves but blown nine. Meanwhile, the Red Sox relief corps has posted a 7.11 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (9*). |
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08-24-22 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I’m expecting a relatively high-scoring affair as the White Sox send Lucas Giolito to the hill against Spenser Watkins of the Orioles on Wednesday. Giolito is having a tough campaign all around, posting a 4.13 FIP and 1.53 WHIP while allowing 5.65 runs per nine innings. Save for his strikeout average of 10.2 per nine innings, Giolito has been awful across the board, allowing 10.4 hits, 1.5 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. I expect the O’s to take advantage on Wednesday. Watkins has only been marginally better than Giolito this season, recording a 4.34 FIP and 1.33 WHIP while giving up 4.5 runs per nine frames. The White Sox couldn’t muster an earned run against him over five innings in their lone previous look at him this season back on June 25th but I’m confident they can get to him here. Entering last night’s action, the White Sox bullpen had posted a collective 7.30 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over the last seven games while the O’s relief corps checked in with a 4.56 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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08-23-22 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring affair to open this series last night and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for the Brewers. He didn't have his best stuff against the Dodgers last week but Milwaukee still managed to pull out a 5-3 victory. I expect a better performance from Burnes here, noting that he has posted a 3.01 FIP and 0.94 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.72 runs per nine innings. He's been at his best on the road, where he sports a 1.94 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 11 starts. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles. He silenced the Brewers bats over seven innings last week in Milwaukee. Gonsolin owns a 1.53 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. Overall, he has recorded a 3.34 FIP and 0.86 WHIP, giving up just under 2.2 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens are in excellent current form with the Brewers relief corps entering this series having posted a collective 2.31 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over the last seven games and the Dodgers 'pen recording a 1.12 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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08-23-22 | Diamondbacks v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. While this is a matchup of two teams going nowhere this season, I do expect to see plenty of offensive fireworks. Zach Davies will take the ball for the visiting D'Backs. He owns a 4.58 FIP and 1.56 WHIP while yielding 4.45 runs per nine innings. He's already faced the Royals once this season, giving up four earned runs and lasting only 3 2/3 innings back in May. The bigger problem for Arizona right now is its fading bullpen. The D'Backs 'pen checks in with an 8.55 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over the last seven games. It has converted just 15 saves while blowing nine on the road this season. Jon Heasley will counter for the Royals. He was tagged for three earned runs over five innings in an outing against the D'Backs in May. For the season, Heasley owns an ugly 5.95 FIP and 1.56 WHIP while giving up 6.2 runs per nine innings. The Royals bullpen entered yesterday's action having posted a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (9*). |
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08-21-22 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. This pitching matchup sets up perfectly as a high-scoring affair on Sunday at PNC Park. Mike Minor will take the ball for the visiting Reds. He's been awful this year, posting a 6.41 FIP and 1.61 WHIP while giving up a whopping 6.85 runs per nine innings. His counterpart, Zach Thompson of the Pirates, hasn't been much better, recording a 5.34 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while giving up right around 6.0 runs per nine frames. Neither bullpen has had much success this season, with the Reds recording a collective 5.12 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road, entering yesterday's action, and the Pirates sporting a 4.38 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home. Take the over (8*). |
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08-20-22 | Astros v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the 'under' in the first five innings only in Atlanta on Saturday as we have a terrific starting pitching matchup between Cristian Javier of the Astros and Spencer Strider of the Braves. Javier has posted a 3.39 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing less than 3.0 runs per nine innings this season. The issue for the Astros has been their bullpen, which has struggled to the tune of a 6.61 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over the last seven games but we'll aim to avoid that relief corps with this first five innings play. Rookie Spencer Strider is having a fantastic campaign having recorded a 1.98 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while giving up 3.23 runs per nine innings. He'll have the advantage of facing the Astros for the first time in his career on Saturday (as will Javier against the Braves). Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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08-20-22 | Hamilton v. Montreal OVER 48.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Montreal at 4 pm et on Saturday. I see this as another breakout spot for the Ti-Cats offense after scoring 34 points in a win over Toronto last week. The Alouettes are getting absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing 138, 102, 152 and 118 rushing yards over their last four games. The Ti-Cats are more than capable of taking advantage as they've gained 100+ yards on the ground in three of their last four contests. While the Als are coming off a low-scoring overtime victory in Winnipeg last week, they generally don't shy away from high-scoring shootouts. Note that they've aired it out 31 or more times in three of their last four games while the Ti-Cats have yielded opponents' 37+ pass attempts in two of their last three games. Despite the low-scoring result last week, Montreal has seen four of its last six games total 55+ points. Take the over (10*). |
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08-18-22 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. They really can't set this total low enough for the first five innings on Thursday as we have the best starting pitching matchup on the board with Jacob deGrom going for the Mets against Max Fried of the Braves. deGrom has returned in midseason form for New York after an extended layoff, posting a 0.72 FIP and 0.42 WHIP in 16 2/3 innings of work. He's held opponents to just 1.62 runs per nine innings (small sample size, I know). He didn't necessarily have his best stuff against the Braves on August 7th but still struck out 12 and gave up only two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. Note that for his career, deGrom owns a 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 26 starts against the Braves. The Mets bullpen on the other hand, has struggled, recording a collective 5.53 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the last seven games so we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only here. Max Fried is having a Cy Young Award-caliber season for Atlanta, sporting a 2.45 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while allowing only 2.8 runs per nine innings. He most recently faced the Mets on August 6th and gave up an uncharacteristic four runs, two of them earned, over six innings. He still owns a solid 3.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 14 career outings against New York. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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08-18-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. Save for Tuesday's extra innings affair (even that game totalled only nine runs), this has been a low-scoring series. I anticipate more of the same in Thursday's series-finale. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Dodgers, apparently no worse for wear after taking a line drive off his pitching arm in an outing that was cut short against the Royals last weekend. The left-hander has been terrific for the Dodgers this season, posting a 2.18 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing only 2.61 runs per nine innings. Not a lot has been asked of Heaney as he generally works only 4-5 innings per start but that's fine for our purposes as the Dodgers bullpen behind him is terrific, having logged a 2.70 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games, entering last night's action. Also keep in mind, the Brewers have struggled against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging only 3.6 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.5 rpg). Corbin Burnes will counter for Milwaukee. He's having another fine campagn, recording a 3.05 FIP and 0.92 WHIP while yielding just 2.64 runs per nine innings. While Corbin has struggled in two previous outings against the Dodgers over the course of his career, both of those came in Los Angeles (with one of them coming all the way back in 2019) and he's yet to face them this season. Note that Burnes owns a 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP at home this season and a 2.73 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in daytime starts. The Brewers bullpen has actually been virtually on par with that of the Dodgers lately, sporting a collective 2.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven contests, also entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
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08-17-22 | A's v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. While we’re dealing with small sample sizes to be sure, both of Wednesday’s starters, Adam Oller of the A’s and Cole Ragans of the Rangers have struggled mightily at times this season. I’m expecting plenty of offense as they match up on Wednesday evening. Oller owns a 6.86 FIP and 1.78 WHIP in 48 1/3 innings of work this season, yielding a whopping 7.82 runs per nine innings. The Rangers will be seeing him for the second time after scoring five earned runs, including two home runs, off of him over five innings back in late April. Ragans has only pitched 9 1/3 innings at the big league level this season, posting a 7.29 FIP and 1.71 WHIP while getting tagged for 5.79 runs per nine innings. Most concerning is the fact that Ragans has issued seven walks while striking out only four since joining the Rangers rotation earlier this month. While both bullpens have been solid lately, neither is strong enough to keep us off the full game ‘over’ in this one. Between the two teams, they’ve combined to blow 34 saves this season (entering last night’s action) so the potential is there for late runs on the board, should we need them. Take the over (9*). |
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08-17-22 | Red Sox v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This game sets up nicely as a high-scoring affair between the Red Sox and Pirates at PNC Park. Veteran left-hander Rich Hill will take the ball for the Red Sox. He continues to labor through the 2022 campaign, sporting a 4.31 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing north of 5.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Hill is a disappointing Red Sox bullpen that entered last night’s series-opener having posted a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the last seven games. On the road it has converted only 13 saves while blowing 12, again prior to last night’s action. The Pirates will turn to Roansy Contreras on Wednesday. He’s had an up-and-down season, with more downs than ups. Contreras has posted a 4.89 FIP and a 1.38 WHIP, yielding 4.32 runs per nine innings. He’ll be making his first big league start since July 7th and hasn’t necessarily dominated at the minor league level, recording a 3.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at AAA and still struggling with his command, allowing 1.0 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings (he’s given up 1.6 home runs and 4.0 walks per nine innings in 12 MLB appearances this season). Like the Red Sox ‘pen, the Pirates relief corps has struggled, particularly of late as it has recorded a collective 6.15 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests, entering last night’s action. For the season, the Buccos ‘pen owns a 4.41 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only 11 saves converted compared to nine blown at home. Take the over (10*). |
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08-16-22 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is the best starting pitching matchup on Tuesday's board as the Astros send Justin Verlander to the hill against Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Verlander is having another incredible season, recording a 2.91 FIP and 0.86 WHIP while giving up only 2.38 runs per nine innings. He'll have a score to settle here after allowing seven runs, four of them earned, over just 3 2/3 innings in his lone previous start against the White Sox this season back in June. Knowing the competitor that he is and given he's logged a 1.58 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 11 road outings this season, I'm expecting Verlander's best in this one. Dylan Cease is having a Cy Young Award-caliber year to be sure, checking in with a 2.75 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while yielding just 2.66 runs per nine innings. He's struggled against the Astros in the past but this will be his first shot at them this year and he has certainly been a different pitcher in 2022. Incredibly, you would have to go back 15 starts to find the last time Cease allowed more than a single earned run. The reason we're playing the first five innings only in this one should be obvious but it's worth noting that the two bullpens have struggled lately, with Houston's relief corps posting a 6.52 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven games and the White Sox 'pen recording a 5.40 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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08-16-22 | Tigers v. Guardians OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Detroit and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in this same matchup (with the same two starting pitchers) last week in Detroit but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Rookie Garrett Hill got off to a fine start for the Tigers this season but has struggled lately with his FIP rising to 5.82 and his WHIP to 1.36. He checks in allowing 5.15 runs per nine innings and was fortunate to get himself out of trouble on numerous occasions over five innings of work against these same Guardians last time out. Interestingly, this will be Cleveland's third look at Hill this season (he's made only seven starts in total). The Guardians will counter with Zach Plesac. He sports a 4.27 FIP and 1.32 WHIP on the season and actually allows 0.9 more hits per nine innings compared to Hill. Opponents have reached Plesac for 4.94 runs per nine innings. The Tigers will be seeing Plesac for the fourth time this season. Their best effort against him came in his lone outing against them here in Cleveland back in July as he gave up five runs, two of them earned, over just 3 2/3 innings of work. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid a Guardians bullpen that is in excellent form having posted a collective 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). For its part, the Detroit 'pen has recorded a solid 3.05 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road this season, also entering yesterday's double-header. Take the first five innings over (8*). |
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08-15-22 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 6.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The 'over' has cashed just once in the Angels last six games. After missing with the 'over' in their series finale against the Twins yesterday (a 4-2 Los Angeles victory) we'll go the other way and back the 'under' on Monday against Seattle. Newly-acquired Luis Castillo has been outstanding in two starts since joining the Mariners, allowing only three earned runs in 14 2/3 innings - even more impressive given those two starts came against the Yankees. For the season, Castillo owns a 3.17 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 2.98 runs per nine innings. Behind Castillo is a Mariners bullpen that entered yesterday's contest sporting a collective 1.61 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over the last seven games, having converted 17 saves while blowing only five on the road this season. Shohei Ohtani will counter for the Angels on Monday. He's been even better than Castillo, posting a 2.45 FIP and 1.05 WHIP on the season. Opponents have reached Ohtani for just 2.84 runs per nine innings. Like the Mariners 'pen, the Angels relief corps has been outstanding lately, recording a collective 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). After giving up two runs in the first inning yesterday, Los Angeles tossed up eight consecutive shutout innings. Take the under (8*). |
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08-15-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. |
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08-15-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off a lopsided defeats on Sunday. I look for both offenses to respond with favorable results on Monday, leading to a high-scoring affair in Toronto. While the Orioles stable of young arms has performed well this season, tonight's starter, Kyle Bradish, has struggled. He checks in sporting a 5.16 FIP and 1.62 WHIP while allowing just shy of 6.6 runs per nine innings. We're not talking about a small sample size either as he has logged more than 60 big league innings this season. To make matters worse, the Blue Jays will be seeing him for the third time this season and the second time in less than a week. They've fared well against him, scoring eight earned runs on 14 hits over 10 1/3 innings previously. While the O's bullpen has been solid for much of the season, it took a hit due to pre-trade deadline dealing and entered yesterday's action with a 4.32 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the last seven games. The Yusei Kikuchi experiment hasn't worked out in Toronto this season. He's struggled since joining the club from Seattle, recording a 5.87 FIP and 1.49 WHIP here in 2022. Opponents have reached the left-hander for north of 5.8 runs per nine innings. Note that the O's have been slightly better offensively against left-handed starters this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game compared to their season scoring average of 4.3 rpg. They've tagged Kikuchi for nine earned runs in nine innings in two previous looks at him this season. Meanwhile, the Jays 'pen has been overworked, entering yesterday's contest having logged 28 innings over the last seven games, sporting a collective 3.54 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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08-15-22 | Padres v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. This is one of the best starting pitching matchups on Monday's board as the Padres send Joe Musgrove to the hill against Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins. We'll look to avoid the inconsistent bullpens here and back the first five innings 'under' only. Musgrove labored through a four-start stretch before settling down to allow just one earned run over seven innings against the Giants last time out. On the season, he owns a 3.35 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while allowing only 3.19 runs per nine innings. In Musgrove's lone previous outing against the Marlins this season he gave up just two earned runs on five hits while striking out eight and walking just one over seven frames back in early May. There's Sandy Alcantara and then there's everyone else when it comes to the Marlins pitching staff this year. He's been terrific, recording a 2.85 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while yielding just 2.39 runs per nine innings. With that being said, he'll be looking to avenge one of his worst starts of the season which came against the Padres in May. In that outing he allowed two earned runs on five hits and lasted just 4 2/3 innings. That game still totalled just five runs. The last time we saw Alcantara pitch here at home he tossed a complete game shutout against the Reds on August 3rd. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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08-14-22 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -125 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. While this series has gotten off to a low-scoring start I look for Sunday's series finale to provide plenty of offensive fireworks. Chris Archer gets the start for the Twins. He checks in with a 4.58 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 4.5 runs per nine innings. Heading into last night's game, the Twins bullpen was in awful form, posting a collective 5.93 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Minnesota's relief corps has converted only eight saves while also blowing eight. Tucker Davidson will take the ball for the hometown Angels. He's struggled in limited work this season, recording a 5.60 FIP and 2.02 WHIP while giving up north of 7.9 runs per nine innings (small sample size of 19 1/3 innings, I know). Of course, the Los Angeles bullpen is rarely all that reliable, checking in with a collective 4.15 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at home this season, converting 15 saves and blowing eight. Take the over (8*). |
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08-14-22 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8 | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Oakland and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring start to this A.L. West matchup on Sunday afternoon. Cole Irvin will take the ball for the visiting A's. He's quietly turned his season around, lowering his FIP to 3.84 and his WHIP to 1.03 while giving up just 3.21 runs per nine innings. We're not interested in supporting the A's bullpen here, however, as they've struggled mightily to keep runs off the board lately (5.53 ERA and 1.34 WHIP L7 games entering last night's action). We'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. While his command hasn't always been there this season, he's still managed to record a solid 3.43 FIP and 1.05 WHIP, yielding just 3.14 runs per nine innings. In his lone career home start against the A's, Javier tossed five shutout innings in April 2021. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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08-14-22 | Dodgers v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the Dodgers on the run-line in each of the last two nights but I won't hesitate to go a different direction and back the first five innings 'under' as this interleague series wraps up on Sunday. Tyler Anderson will take the ball for the visiting Dodgers. He probably doesn't get the attention he deserves in a loaded Dodgers starting rotation. Anderson checks in with a 3.33 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing only 2.87 runs per nine innings this season. His counterpart on Sunday will be Brady Singer. While he pitches for a bad team, he's held up well, recording a 3.66 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season. Singer is giving up just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we want no part of a Royals bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting a 7.17 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the last seven games and a 4.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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08-13-22 | Rams v. Chargers UNDER 32 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between the Rams and Chargers at 10 pm et on Saturday. Neither of these teams are expected to play their starters in this game - no real surprise after both head coaches elected to aim for a very 'uneventful' preseason slate a year ago. The Rams saw their three preseason games in 2021 total just 29, 33 and 19 points. As for the Chargers, their three preseason tilts last year reached only 27, 25 and 19 total points. The latter game for each team came against one another as the Chargers prevailed by a 13-6 score. While both teams are obviously set at the quarterback position once the games count for real with Matt Stafford and Justin Herbert, it gets a little uglier down the depth chart. The Rams boast the likes of John Wolford, Bryce Perkins and Devlin 'Duck' Hodges while the Chargers have Chase Daniel (admittedly a preseason household name but not likely to see a lot of action here), Easton Stick and Brandon Peters. There's not a ton of wiggle room in either team's wide receiver depth charts so no real need to put on an air show to evaluate talent at that position. It was a similar story for both squads during last year's preseason schedule. The Chargers in particular will be looking to evaluate their talent at running back in this one with Isaiah Spiller entrenched in a depth chart battle with Josh Kelley and Larry Rountree. I'm anticipating both teams focusing on effectively 'shortening' this game with a heavy dose of their respective ground attacks here. We're dealing with a relatively low total, especially when you considering the high-scoring start the preseason has gotten off to across the board, but I believe the number is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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08-13-22 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Seattle and Texas at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. With both bullpens entering this series in solid current form, we'll look to play 'over' the first five innings only in this one as the starting pitching matchup should favor the hitters. Marco Gonzales will get the start for the visiting Mariners. He checks in with a 5.12 FIP and 1.39 WHIP this season, allowing just north of 4.7 runs per nine innings. The division-rival Rangers have already seen him four times this season and have had considerable success at the dish against him, plating 12 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He owns a 4.15 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 4.3 runs per nine innings. Like the Rangers against Gonzales, the Mariners have seen plenty of Dunning this season. This will be their fourth game against the right-hander, having previously scored seven earned runs off of him in 16 innings. As I mentioned, both bullpens entering this series pitching well (SEA - 2.19 ERA/0.61 WHIP L7 games, TEX - 1.71 ERA/0.95 WHIP L7 games) so we'll only call for a high-scoring start to Saturday's contest. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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08-11-22 | Montreal v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met last week in Montreal, they combined to score 55 points in a 15-point Blue Bombers victory. Winnipeg has now scored 35 points in consecutive games but doesn't necessarily have the look of such an explosive offensive squad under the guidance of QB Zach Collaros. It has been the Bombers ground game that has exploded over the last two weeks but after running for their two highest yardage totals of the season, I look for a step back in that department here. We can't continue to project 150+ rushing yards when the Bombers are actually only running the ball around 20 times per game. Meanwhile, Winnipeg completed just 15-of-26 passes against the Alouettes last week and turned the football over four times. They'll be looking to clean things up here and I see this as more of a 'win and move on' type of contest for the Bombers. Montreal has tried to sling it all over the field over the last two games but it hasn't worked as it completed just 45-of-74 passes for 491 yards in those two contests, scoring a grand total of 37 points. Things obviously won't get any easier as the scene shifts to Winnipeg against the Bombers elite defense. Note that the 'under' is 19-4 with the Bombers playing at home off three consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 44.3 points. Take the under (10*). |
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08-11-22 | Guardians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' lately but I look for a different story to unfold in Thursday afternoon's series finale in Detroit. Zach Plesac will take the ball for the Guardians. He owns a 4.31 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing 5.15 runs per nine innings. The Tigers will be seeing Plesac for the third time this season after knocking him around for four earned runs on 12 hits over just 9 2/3 innings in their first two looks. Rookie Garrett Hill will counter for Detroit. He checks in with a 5.51 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 5.12 runs per nine frames. The Guardians have already seen Hill once and while they didn't fare all that well in that contest (just one earned run on two hits over six innings), I look for improvement here. The Guardians bullpen has been fine lately but the Tigers relief corps has been awful, posting a collective 7.66 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last seven games. It's not as if Cleveland's 'pen has been untouchable on the road as it has recorded a 3.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-09-22 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Miami and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a low-scoring start to this N.L. East showdown on Tuesday as the Marlins send an underrated Braxton Garrett to the hill against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies. Garrett enters Tuesday's start having lowered his FIP to 3.04 and his WHIP to 1.16, yielding just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings this season. He's struck out 11 batters twice in his last four starts, racking up 37 K's over his last four outings, covering a span of 22 2/3 innings. Wheeler has put up Cy Young Award-caliber numbers for the Phillies again this season, recording a 2.85 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing under 3.0 runs per nine innings. He's worked exactly seven innings and given up two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. The problem with playing the full game 'under' here isn't either starter, it's the bullpens. Miami's relief corps has already blown 13 saves away from home this season while Philadelphia's 'pen checks in with a 7.23 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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08-07-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While these two teams are obviously loaded with offensive talent, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Sunday night’s series-finale in Los Angeles. Yu Darvish will take the ball for the Padres. He’s looking to bounce back from a shaky outing against a Rockies team that has seemingly had his number in recent years. Note that Darvish still owns a terrific 3.27 FIP and 0.99 WHIP this season, allowing just 3.3 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday will be left-hander Tyler Anderson of the Dodgers. Anderson should be pleased to be facing a Padres club that has had a tougher time producing runs against southpaw starters this season, averaging just 4.2 runs per game compared to their season scoring average of 4.4 rpg (entering last night’s action). Anderson checks in sporting a 3.36 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while limiting opponents to just 3.04 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been outstanding lately with the Padres relief corps entering last night’s action with a 1.09 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over its last seven games and the Dodgers logging an even better 0.98 ERA and 0.54 WHIP over that same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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08-07-22 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and New York at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. This has the makings of one of the best starting pitching matchups on Sunday’s board as the Braves send impressive rookie Spencer Strider to the hill against Jacob deGrom of the Mets. Strider has turned heads in his rookie campaign, posting a 1.97 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while allowing only 3.0 runs per nine innings. He faced the Mets back in mid-July and allowed just one earned run over 4 2/3 innings in a 4-1 Braves victory. Jacob deGrom will be making his second start back from injury. He didn’t miss a beat in his first start back, allowing just one earned run on three hits while striking out six and not walking a batter in five innings against the Nationals. While he does face a tougher opponent here, I’m confident he’ll be up for the challenge. As I noted in my analysis of last night’s play on the ‘under’ in this matchup, both bullpens headed into the weekend in fine form. Even off yesterday’s double-header, I’m confident they’ll both hold up well on Sunday. Take the under. |
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08-07-22 | White Sox v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Texas at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. I’m confident we’ll see the hitters feast on Sunday’s subpar starting pitchers as this series wraps on a high-scoring note in Texas. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito is in the midst of a massively disappointing campaign having posted a 4.34 FIP and 1.49 WHIP while allowing north of 5.4 runs per nine innings. While the bullpen behind him has been terrific lately, I’m not convinced it will be enough to make up for Giolito’s shortcomings here. Meanwhile, Rangers right-hander Spencer Howard has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. He owns a 6.90 FIP and 1.63 WHIP while giving up a whopping 7.08 runs per nine innings. The Texas bullpen hasn’t been much better lately, logging a collective 5.02 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take the over (8*). |
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08-06-22 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Milwaukee at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We’ll take advantage of a subpar starting pitching matchup not to mention two fading bullpens as we back the ‘over’ in Saturday’s showdown between the Reds and Brewers in Milwaukee. Nick Lodolo will take the ball for Cincinnati. He owns a respectable 3.79 FIP but a disappointing 1.57 WHIP in 38 1/3 innings of work in his rookie season. Opponents have reached the left-hander for 4.7 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Aaron Ashby has posted a 3.75 FIP and 1.45 WHIP while giving up north of 5.1 runs per nine innings. As I mentioned, both bullpens have been anything but airtight lately with the Reds relief corps entering last night’s action sporting a collective 4.42 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last seven games and a 5.22 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season. Milwaukee’s ‘pen entered the series with a 5.09 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-22 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 7 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and New York at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring games to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold in Game 2 of Saturday's double-header in Queens. Max Fried will take the ball for Atlanta. He's having a Cy Young Award-caliber season having recorded a 2.47 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while giving up only 2.65 runs per nine innings. He issued a season-high five walks, giving up two earned runs over five innings in a 4-1 loss to the Mets the last time he faced them so he'll be looking for a little revenge here. Max Scherzer will counter for the Mets. He didn't have his best stuff against the Nationals last time out but still hung in there, working into the seventh innings in a lopsided victory. Scherzer owns a terrific 2.64 FIP and 0.93 WHIP this season while allowing only 2.33 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens are serviceable in this matchup. The Braves 'pen has posted a collective 3.08 ERA and 1.14 WHIP on the road this season while the Mets relief corps owns a 3.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP at home. Take the under (8*). |
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08-06-22 | Pirates v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 5:05 pm et on Saturday. I’m anticipating a high-scoring start to this interleague contest as the Pirates send JT Brubaker to the hill against Austin Voth of the Orioles. Brubaker checks in with a 3.85 FIP and 1.49 WHIP on the season, allowing an average of 5.18 runs per nine innings. Voth has posted similar numbers with a 3.93 FIP and 1.59 WHIP while giving up just shy of 6.1 runs per nine innings. With the two bullpens thriving lately (the Buccos ‘pen entered last night’s action with a 2.16 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last seven games while the O’s relief corps posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the same stretch) we’ll look to play the ‘over’ in the first five innings only in this one. Take the first five innings over (8*). |
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08-05-22 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. For many of the same reasons we backed the ‘over’ in the opener of this series last night, we’ll go right back to the well with the same play on Friday. Rookie Josh Winckowski got off to a reasonably solid start for the Red Sox this season but the wheels have since come off. He checks in sporting a 5.09 FIP and 1.51 WHIP while allowing 5.2 runs per nine innings. Veteran Zack Greinke hasn’t been much better for the Royals. He owns a 4.47 FIP and 1.30 WHIP while giving up an average of 4.72 runs per nine innings. While the Red Sox bullpen has been serviceable lately, it’s by no means unbeatable having logged a 3.86 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with just 13 saves converted and 12 blown on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Meanwhile, the Royals bullpen owns a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home (also entering last night’s action). Take the over (8*). |
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08-05-22 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I’m expecting plenty of offense in this game on Friday as the Nationals send Josiah Gray to the mound against Kyle Gibson of the Phillies. Gray enters with an ugly 5.30 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while allowing 4.68 runs per nine innings. As he doesn’t have a tendency to last deep into ball games, we should see plenty of the Nationals bullpen, which checks in with a 5.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Interestingly, Gibson allows an identical 4.68 runs per nine innings to that of Gray. He has posted a 4.43 FIP and 1.23 WHIP on the campaign. Behind Gibson is fading Phillies bullpen that entered last night’s action having recorded a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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08-04-22 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 102 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Red Sox are coming off a low-scoring series against the Astros and have now seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Nick Pivetta will get the start for the visiting Red Sox. After a strong stretch earlier this season, the wheels came off and he's never really been able to regain his footing. Pivetta has seen his FIP rise to 4.16 and his WHIP to 1.32 while allowing just under 4.5 runs per nine innings on the campaign. While the Red Sox bullpen has been serviceable, it has by no means been 'lights out', posting a collective 4.05 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). Kris Bubic has seen his season unfold differently than Pivetta's as he got off to a difficult start but has settled down somewhat since. With that being said, his overall numbers are not good as he owns a 5.19 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while yielding north of 6.0 runs per nine frames. The Royals bullpen didn't give up a run yesterday in Chicago but prior to that had recorded a collective 5.14 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over the last seven contests. It has posted a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-04-22 | Blue Jays v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays have now seen each of their last seven games stay 'under' the total while you would have to go back five contests to find the last time Minnesota posted an 'over' result. I look for those trends to continue in the opener of a four-game series between the two teams tonight in Minnesota. Alek Manoah will get the start for Toronto. He's having a fine sophomore campaign having posted a 3.40 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while holding opponents to only 2.79 runs per nine innings. Behind Manoah is a Jays bullpen that has been locked in lately, recording a collective 1.57 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Sonny Gray has 'turned back the clock' in a sense for the Twins this season, posting a 3.41 FIP and 1.11 WHIP while giving up just over 3.5 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Twins bullpen has been fairly steady of late, logging a collective 3.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games (also entering yesterday's action). Take the under (8*). |
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08-02-22 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The White Sox posted their third straight ‘under’ result last night as they dropped a 2-1 decision to the Royals here at home. I’m anticipating a higher-scoring affair on Tuesday as Chicago sends a struggling Lucas Giolito to the hill against Brad Keller of Kansas City. Giolito is having a trying season to say the least. He has recorded a 4.45 FIP and 1.48 WHIP while giving up north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. Over his last two outings he has been tagged for nine earned runs on 15 hits over just eight innings of work. Royals starter Brad Keller checks in with a 4.26 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while yielding 4.68 runs per nine innings on the campaign. The White Sox haven’t had a great deal of success against him this season but will be seeing him for a third time on Tuesday and it’s not as if he’s really been fooling them as he has just six strikeouts in 14 innings against them. The two bullpens have struggled. Kansas City’s relief corps entered this series sporting a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.67 WHIP with no saves converted and two blown over its last seven games. Meanwhile, the White Sox ‘pen had recorded a 6.26 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the same stretch and has just 13 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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08-01-22 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Dodgers saw each of their last three games at hitter-friendly Coors Field stay 'under' the total while the Giants have posted just one 'over' result in their last five games overall. I look for those trends to continue in Monday's series-opener between these N.L. West rivals on Monday. Andrew Heaney will get his second start back from injury for the Dodgers. He had a nice return last week, tossing four shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Nationals. Here, we'll likely see the left-hander get stretched out a little more. In 19 1/3 innings of work this season, Heaney owns a terrific 2.40 FIP and 0.88 WHIP while giving up only 1.4 runs per nine innings (small sample size, I know). Behind Heaney is a Dodgers bullpen that owns a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only two blown on the road this season. Logan Webb will take the ball for the Giants. He didn't have his best stuff last time out in Arizona but still hung around for 6 1/3 innings, ultimately keeping his team in the game in an eventual 5-3 loss to the D'Backs. Webb has now lasted at least six innings in nine consecutive starts. On the season, Webb has recorded a 3.21 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.2 runs per nine innings. It's also worth noting that Webb owns a career 2.50 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in nine starts against the Dodgers. The only time he gave up more than two earned runs against them, we still saw that contest total only seven runs (in a 7-0 Dodgers win back in August 2020). You would have to go back six Webb starts against the Dodgers to find the last time a game went 'over' seven runs. I'll admit the Giants bullpen is a concern as it owns a collective 6.86 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games. I do like the fact that it has logged just 19 2/3 innings over the last seven games, however, and it posted two shutout innings in last night's 4-0 blanking of the Cubs. The San Francisco relief corps has converted 10 saves while blowing only four at home this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-31-22 | Ottawa v. Toronto UNDER 47.5 | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Toronto at 5 pm et on Sunday. The RedBlacks remain winless on the season and they'll be hard-pressed to pick up their first victory in Toronto on Sunday. With that being said, rather than lay the points with the Argos here, we'll play the 'under' as I don't expect Ottawa to come close to approaching the 33 points it scored at home against Montreal last week. Ottawa has had an extended week to prepare for this game having not played since a week ago Thursday. That extra time off has allowed some of their defensive injuries to heal up and I certainly anticipate a better showing from that unit than we saw last week against the Alouettes. Note that prior to that contest, the RedBlacks had held four of their first five opponents to 28 points or less this season. Toronto probably doesn't want QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson slinging it all over the field the way he has the last two games against the Roughriders. In fact, the Argos have attempted 37+ passes in three consecutive games. Here, I look for them to make a concerted effort to 'manage' the game, controlling the clock and ultimately grinding down a very beatable RedBlacks squad. Speaking of QB play, Ottawa has never really been able to settle on a quarterback this season and that's lead to a very disjointed offensive attack. The RedBlacks aren't likely to make a lot of headway against an Argos defense that has steadily rounded into form and arguably sits just behind the Blue Bombers as the best defensive squad in the CFL. Since giving up 44 points in a rout against B.C. back in its second game of the season, Toronto has held its last three opponents to 23, 24 and 21 points. The Argos have allowed 100 yards rushing only once in five games and have limited four of five opponents to fewer than 300 passing yards. Take the under (8*). |
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07-31-22 | Diamondbacks v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Atlanta at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point and I expect more of the same on Sunday. Merrill Kelly gets the start for the D'Backs. He has quietly put together a solid 2022 campaign, recording a 3.21 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while allowing only 3.19 runs per nine innings. Behind Kelly is a suddenly hot D'Backs bullpen that owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the last seven games. Braves ace Max Fried has put up Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, posting a 2.48 FIP and 1.09 WHIP while yielding only 2.8 runs per nine frames. The Braves bullpen has recorded a 1.12 WHIP over the last seven games and a 3.40 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-30-22 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating plenty of offense as the Rangers and Angels continue their series in Anaheim on Saturday. Glenn Otto gets the start for the visiting Rangers. He owns a 5.19 FIP and 1.46 WHIP this season, yielding 5.64 runs per nine innings. Command has been a major issue has he has handed out 4.7 walks per nine innings. Chase Silseth hasn't been much better for the Angels. He has recorded a 5.84 FIP and 1.46 WHIP, knocked around for a whopping 10.2 hits per nine innings. Opponents have reached Silseth for 5.84 runs per nine frames. Both bullpens are hittable. The Rangers relief corps has posted a colelctive 4.69 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven games while the Halos 'pen owns a 4.27 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at home. The two teams have combined to blow 15 saves away and home, respectively. Take the over (10*). |
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07-29-22 | A's v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I’m expecting plenty of offense between the A’s and White Sox on Friday as they open a three-game series in Chicago. James Kaprielian has been the weak link in the A’s rotation this season, posting a 5.62 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. Behind Kaprielian is an A’s bullpen that I expect to suffer some regression on this road trip following an extended stretch at home. The A’s ‘pen has just 14 saves converted compared to nine blown on the road this season. Veteran Lance Lynn has had an up-and-down return from injury to the White Sox starting rotation. He did pitch well over six innings against the Guardians last time out but I question whether he can follow it up with another quality outing here. Note that Lynn has posted a 4.34 FIP and 1.41 WHIP this season, allowing an ugly average of 7.07 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen has been a mess lately, most recently coughing up Wednesday’s game in the ninth inning in Colorado. The Sox relief corps has posted a collective 6.35 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over the last seven games and hasn’t been much better as a whole at home this season, logging a 5.23 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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07-29-22 | Guardians v. Rays UNDER 7 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I’m anticipating a well-pitched game from both sides in St. Petersburg on Friday night as the Guardians send Shane Bieber to the mound against Jeffrey Springs of the Rays. Bieber got roughed up early against the White Sox in his most recent start. I’m confident he’ll bounce back here, noting that he has posted a 3.07 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, allowing just shy of 3.8 runs per nine innings. Bieber has had moderate success against the Rays in his career, posting a 3.09 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in four career starts against them. Springs is having a fine campaign as well, recording a 3.58 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 2.63 runs per nine frames. He’ll have the advantage of facing the Guardians for the first time in his career on Friday. This matchup features two capable bullpens with Cleveland’s relief corps having posted a collective 2.45 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action) and the Rays ‘pen having recorded a 3.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-29-22 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring games lately and I expect more of the same on Friday as New York sends Chris Bassitt to the hill against Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. Bassitt has been quietly rolling along lately, working at least six innings while allowing three earned runs or less in six consecutive outings. For the season, Bassitt has posted a 3.74 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while giving up 3.8 runs per nine innings. Alcantara is one of the leading contenders for the N.L. Cy Young Award as he has recorded a 2.78 FIP and 0.90 WHIP, yielding only 2.24 runs per nine innings. He didn’t have his best stuff in his most recent start but still hung in there, allowing only two earned runs while striking out 10 over six innings in Pittsburgh. Both bullpens have been solid lately with the Mets relief corps posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games and the Marlins ‘pen recording a 3.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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07-28-22 | Montreal v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Alouettes are coming off four straight 'over' results and have been downright awful defensively in each of their last three games. They do earn a bit of a reprieve here against a struggling Tiger-Cats offense that has been held to 13 points or less in three of six games this season. Last week, Hamilton actually turned in one of its best offensive performances of the season, at least statistically speaking, but could still muster only 12 points in a loss to the Lions. The good news for Hamilton is, its defense has been getting stronger with each passing game. The Ti-Cats two lowest point totals allowed this season have come in their last two contests (they gave up 23 points in a win over Ottawa and 17 in a loss against B.C.). I don't have a lot of faith in either of these offenses finishing many drives with 7's on the board, noting that last year's three meetings totalled just 37, 43 and 35 points. Take the under (8*). |
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07-26-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The totals have been steadily coming down over the D'Backs last few games from 9.5 on Sunday to 9.0 on Monday and now 8.5 on Tuesday. Obviously that has a lot to do with the starting pitchers slated to take the mound, but in this case, I believe the total will prove too low. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for the visiting Giants. There's not a lot negative I can say about Rodon but I'm confident the D'Backs can scratch out enough offense against him (and the rest of the Giants pitching staff) to help this total along. Note that Rodon will be starting on just four days' rest here. The last time he did he gave up eight hits and three walks but limited the damage allowing just one earned run over five innings against Milwaukee. The D'Backs did get to him for four earned runs over five innings in their lone previous matchup this season. No bullpen has struggled worse than the Giants' lately as they check in sporting an ugly 8.24 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over their last seven games so the opportunity should be there for the D'Backs to score late even if they're silenced by Rodon early. I'm down on D'Backs starter Tyler Gilbert as he has posted a 5.93 FIP and 1.25 WHIP while allowing 5.64 runs per nine innings this season. San Francisco will get its second look at Gilbert this season after failing to deliver the knockout blow but having little trouble chasing him from the game after 3 2/3 innings earlier this month (Gilbert allowed four hits, one walk and one earned run while striking out only two in that outing. The D'Backs bullpen has posted excellent numbers lately but I will point out that they've had little pressure on them playing with big leads in the majority of those games. When pressed in a tight contest against the Nationals on Sunday they ultimately coughed up the game. Take the over (8*). |
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07-26-22 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is one of the best starting pitching matchups on Tuesday’s board as the Braves hand the ball to standout rookie Spencer Strider against Aaron Nola of the Phillies. We’ll use the ‘first five innings’ to play the ‘under’ in this one. Strider has burst onto the scene with a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.05 FIP and 1.05 WHIP, holding opponents to just under 3.3 runs per nine innings. Here, he’ll have the advantage of facing the Phillies for the first time in his career. Nola is often found in Zack Wheeler’s shadow in the Phillies rotation but he’s been every bit as good as the Philadelphia ace this season. Nola owns a 2.82 FIP and 0.91 WHIP while yielding just 3.2 runs per nine innings. By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid a struggling Phillies bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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07-25-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. |
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07-25-22 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 9 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. This game has all the makings of a slugfest, even though it features two teams that aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts in the Marlins and Reds. Trevor Rogers will get the start for Miami. To say that he’s labored through his 18 starts this season would be an understatement. He has posted a 4.53 FIP and 1.55 WHIP while yielding just shy of 5.9 runs per nine innings. He’ll be facing a Reds club that has fared much better offensively at home this season, entering yesterday’s action averaging 5.1 runs per game (compared to their 4.3 rpg overall). The Marlins bullpen coughed up a two-run ninth inning lead and almost let a 6-4 extra innings lead slip away yesterday in Pittsburgh. Miami’s ‘pen entered that contest having already blown 10 saves away from home this season, where it had recorded a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Rookie Nick Lodolo will take the ball for Cincinnati. He remains in the Reds rotation out of necessity only. Note that he has posted a 4.86 FIP and 1.79 WHIP while allowing just north of 5.8 runs per nine innings in six starts this season. Behind Lodolo is a Reds bullpen that has posted a collective 5.43 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with only four saves converted and six blown at home this season (entering yesterday’s action). Take the over (8*). |
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07-24-22 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. Our play on the first five innings 'over' in this matchup last night didn't go our way but I won't hesitate to come back with a similar play on Sunday - this time backing the 'over' for the full game as Washington sends Erick Fedde to the hill against Corbin Martin of the D'Backs. Fedde is in the midst of another trying campaign having posted a 4.98 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while allowing north of 5.0 runs per nine innings. Perhaps Nationals starters are trying to be a little too perfect on the road, noting that their bullpen entered last night's action sporting an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP away from home this season. The D'Backs have certainly feasted in Washington pitching in this series, plating 17 runs in two games. Corbin Martin will get another spot start for Arizona. In 14 1/3 innings of work this season, Martin has recorded a 2.42 FIP and 1.47 WHIP but has yielded a whopping 5.65 runs per nine innings. That low FIP has everything to do with the fact that he hasn't allowed a home run at the big league level this season. However, a quick look at his minor league stats shows he posted an ERA north of 5.00 and a 1.33 WHIP while allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings at the AAA level this season. I'm confident the Nats' slumbering bats will wake up against Martin on Sunday. The D'Backs bullpen has managed to convert only seven saves while blowing six at home this season where it has recorded a pedestrian 3.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP (entering last night's action). Take the over (10*). |
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07-24-22 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a pair of well-pitched, low-scoring games between these two N.L. West rivals over the last two nights. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Alex Cobb will get the start for the visiting Giants. His number are a bit perplexing as he has posted a solid 3.00 FIP to go along with a 1.29 WHIP yet has allowed an ugly 5.37 runs per nine innings. That has a lot to do with the fact that he's kept the ball in the park, yielding just 0.6 runs per nine innings. The Dodgers red hot bats will obviously pose a challenge on Sunday, noting that they entered last night's contest averaging 6.7 runs over their last seven games. Interestingly, Cobb has never faced the Dodgers before in his career. All-Star Game starter Clayton Kershaw will take the ball for Los Angeles. His overall numbers this season are terrific as he owns a 2.48 FIP and 0.91 WHIP while allowing just shy of 2.3 runs per nine innings. If there's an opponent that could put a dent in his armor, it's the Giants. They entered last night's game averaging 5.4 runs per contest against left-handed starting pitching this season (compared to their season average of 4.8 rpg). They saw Kershaw in the second week of June, cashing him after four innings, scoring two runs on three hits and two walks. You would have to go back five Kershaw starts against San Francisco here at Dodger Stadium to find the last time a game totalled less than nine runs. The Giants bullpen hasn't fared any better post-All-Star break than it did before, entering last night's action sporting a 4.33 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven contests. Meanwhile, the Dodgers 'pen has been terrific this season but has been anything but perfect lately, recording a collective 4.05 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the last seven games (also entering last night's action). Take the over (8*). |
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07-24-22 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. This has been a reasonably high-scoring series to this point but I'm anticipating a well-pitched finale on Sunday afternoon. Shane Bieber will get the start for the visiting Guardians. He checks in sporting a 2.74 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.5 runs per nine innings this season. After a bit of a rocky stretch, Bieber faced these same White Sox just before the All-Star break and tossed a complete game, allowing just one run. He owns a 3.14 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road this season. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He's been the most consistent starter in the White Sox rotation, entering this outing with a 2.68 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while yielding just a shade above 3.0 runs per nine innings on the campaign. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, both bullpens entered Saturday's action in tremendous form. Unfortunately the two relief corps suffered some regression in yesterday's double-header but I do think they can rebound should they be called upon here. Take the under (8*). |
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07-24-22 | Angels v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Angels offense has been lifeless lately with last night's loss extending its streak of scoring two runs or less to five games. They will face arguably the weakest link in the Braves starting rotation on Sunday though and I believe they can do their part to help this one 'over' the total. The Braves will get the opportunity to tee off on another left-hander, noting that they entered last night's action having gone 23-9 while averaging 5.7 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. Reid Detmers will take the ball for the Angels on Saturday. He hasn't come close to regaining the form that saw him post a no-hitter earlier in the season. Overall, he owns a 4.82 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while yielding 4.11 runs per nine innings. Atlanta will start Ian Anderson. He's labored through the campaign, recording a 4.31 FIP and 1.51 WHIP while giving up a disappointing 4.89 runs per nine innings. After getting handcuffed by Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright over the last two nights, I think the Angels will be happy to see Anderson on the mound on Sunday. He owns a 5.31 ERA and 1.67 WHIP at home this season. Neither bullpen brings overwhelming form to the table on Sunday. The Angels have just eight converted saves while blowing six on the road this season while it may surprise you to find out that Atlanta has blown 10 saves (while converting 17) at home. Take the over (10*). |
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07-23-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Texas and Oakland at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Break up the A’s! They’ve scored 10 runs over their last two games - both victories - and will look to keep the good vibes at the dish going on Saturday. I like their chances of doing so, at least early on, but I’m also confident the Rangers bats will come alive and do their part to help this one ‘over’ the first five innings total. Taylor Hearn will get the start for the Rangers. He checks in with a 4.57 FIP and 1.67 WHIP, allowing north of 10 hits and four walks per nine innings. Opponents have reached the left-hander for just shy of 6.2 runs per nine innings. James Kaprielian will counter for the A’s. After turning in a fine rookie campaign last year, he’s struggled in his sophomore big league season. Kaprielian has posted a 5.78 FIP and 1.36 WHIP and like Hearn, has struggled with his command, issuing north of four walks per nine innings. He’s also giving up just under 2.0 home runs and 5.22 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens entered this series sporting opposite recent results with the Rangers relief corps struggling and the A’s’ thriving. However, the Rangers ‘pen actually went into last night’s game with a collective 3.04 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season while the A’s ‘pen had posted a 4.84 ERA and WHIP at home. I don’t think we have enough of an edge either way to support a full game ‘over’ play, so we’ll go with the first five innings only here. Take the first five innings over (8*). |
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07-23-22 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Washington and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. These two teams boast bullpens that entered this series in excellent recent form so rather than play the full game ‘over’ the total, we’ll go with the first five innings only as the hitters draw a favorable starting pitching matchup. Journeyman starter Anibal Sanchez will get his second start for Washington. He labored through his first outing, allowing four earned runs on four hits, including two home runs. When we previously saw Sanchez he posted a 5.46 FIP and 1.66 WHIP while allowing just shy of 6.8 runs per nine innings in 53 innings of work for the Nats during the Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. His counterpart on Saturday will be Madison Bumgarner. The veteran left-hander isn’t exactly enjoying a banner campaign having recorded a 4.59 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. That’s about as much as the D’Backs probably expected from him as he nears the end of his storied big league career. Bumgarner checks in allowing just shy of 4.6 runs per nine innings this season. Take the first five innings over (8*). |
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07-23-22 | Guardians v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. This play sets up similarly to last night’s play on the first five innings ‘over’ between these two teams as we have another favorable starting pitching matchup but will look to avoid the two bullpens, which have been performing exceptionally well lately, as I outlined in last night’s analysis. Konnor Pilkington will get another turn in the rotation for the Guardians. He has struggled in his rookie campaign, posting a 4.28 FIP and 1.64 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.4 runs per nine innings. The White Sox have once again been terrific against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game (they average 4.4 rpg overall this season). Veteran Lance Lynn hasn’t come close to regaining the form that saw him contend for the A.L. Cy Young Award last season. He checks in with a 4.78 FIP and 1.50 WHIP in 36 innings of work, yielding a whopping 8.25 runs per nine innings. The last time the Guardians saw Lynn they torched him for eight earned runs on nine hits in just four innings back on July 11th. That was after seeing him four times last season, plating 14 runs in 22 innings. Take the first five innings over (8*). |
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07-23-22 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 1:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the first five innings 'over' in the opener of this divisional series last night but could have also cashed the full game 'over' as the Guardians prevailed by an 8-2 score. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' on Saturday, however, as we have a better starting pitching matchup to go along with the two red hot bullpens. Triston McKenzie will get the start for Cleveland. He actually owns a WHIP below 1.00 (at 0.98) but his FIP does sit north of 4.00 (at 4.22). McKenzie has managed to limit the damage by keeping his hits allowed down and strikeouts up, ultimately allowing just 3.2 runs per nine innings. Entering last night's action, the Guardians bullpen had posted a 1.85 ERA and 0.70 WHIP over the last seven games. They've converted 13 saves while blowing just six on the road this season. Veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto takes the ball for the White Sox. He's 'turned back the clock' this season, recording a 3.98 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while yielding just north of 2.9 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen has performed exceptionally well lately, posting a sparkling 0.45 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). Take the under (8*). |
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07-22-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 1-5 | Win | 105 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I expect a well-pitched game between these N.L. West rivals on Friday. Logan Webb will take the ball for San Francisco. He’s quietly having another fine season, having recorded a 3.10 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while giving up only 3.14 runs per nine innings. The Giants bullpen had run into some tough times earlier this month but has since shown signs of turning it around, posting a collective 3.21 ERA over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). The Dodgers will give left-hander Tyler Anderson the start. While the Giants have hit left-handed starters well this season, Anderson is a ‘bet-on talent’ pitcher with a 3.33 FIP and 1.02 WHIP, yielding only 3.05 runs per nine innings. Los Angeles’ bullpen has been terrific all season and opened this series sporting a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last seven contests. UPDATE: Both bullpens got hit hard in the Dodgers wild 9-6 victory last night. I’m confident we’ll see both relief corps’ bounce back on Friday. Take the under (9*). |
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07-22-22 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks UNDER 48 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Edmonton at 9 pm et on Friday. The Elks are coming off a wild, high-scoring, come-from-behind 32-31 victory over the Alouettes last week. After watching the Als defense get shredded by the lowly RedBlacks last night, it's clear that they have a bottom-tier defensive unit so perhaps we can take Edmonton's offensive outburst last week with a grain of salt. Here, the Elks will be up against arguably the league's best defense as they welcome the Blue Bombers to Commonwealth Stadium. Winnipeg has been locked-in defensively all season, allowing 22 points or less in all six games to date. Last week, they did allow 315 passing yards against the Stampeders but that was on 38 pass attempts, and they still held Calgary to only 19 points (we won with Winnipeg in that game). Edmonton will give QB Taylor Cornelius his second start of the season with Tre Ford still sidelined. Considering his tendency to turn the football over, they probably don't want Cornelius throwing the football 30+ times the way he did against Montreal last week. That would likely be a recipe for disaster against an elite Bombers defense. It's worth noting that Edmonton, despite yielding 31 points in last week's win, is coming off its best defensive effort of the season so far and has had an extra day to prepare for this one. Against Montreal, the Elks allowed 80 rushing yards (the first time they held an opponent under the 100-yard mark this season) and 241 passing yards, limiting the Als to 19 completions on 26 attempts. The Bombers enter this game a little banged-up with their RB depth being tested and standout WR Greg Ellingson listed as questionable and certainly not 100% healthy. As good as the Bombers have been, they've scored more than 26 points just once in six contests this season (we won with Winnipeg in that 43-22 dismantling of the Lions two games back). This looks like a 'win and move on' type of affair for the favored Bombers and I think that lends itself to a relatively low-scoring contest. Take the under (9*). |
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07-22-22 | Guardians v. White Sox OVER 8 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. These teams boast two of the hottest bullpens in baseball in terms of current form - or at least the form they showed entering the All-Star break. So rather than involve those two ‘pens, we’ll look to play the ‘over’ in the first five innings only as the hitters should feast on the starting pitchers working this one. Cal Quantrill has posted a very pedestrian 4.45 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the campaign, yielding 4.2 runs per nine innings. He’s giving up 2.7 walks per nine innings and doing little to make up for it in terms of strikeouts with just 5.6 per nine frames. Lucas Giolito has been even worse for the White Sox, despite the fact that he shut the Guardians down just last week. On the season, Giolito has recorded a 4.28 FIP and 1.40 WHIP while yielding just shy of 5.10 runs per nine innings. He’s handing out 3.3 walks per nine innings on the season and I expect the Guardians to gain an ounce of revenge against the right-hander here. Take the first five innings over (9*). |
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07-22-22 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We have a tremendous starting pitching matchup between these N.L. non-division foes on Friday night in Queens. Rather than sweat the bullpens, I’ll back the first five innings ‘under’ only in this one. Yu Darvish gets the call for the visiting Padres. He owns a 3.45 FIP and 0.99 WHIP and yields just over 3.4 runs per nine innings this season. He most recently faced the Mets in June and allowed just two hits over seven shutout innings and owns a career 2.76 ERA and 0.75 WHIP against them in seven starts. My big concern with the Padres is their bullpen, which has recorded a 5.66 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the last seven games and a 4.43 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Max Scherzer has been dominant since returning from injury. He owns a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.37 FIP and 0.88 WHIP this season while giving up only 2.35 runs per nine frames. The veteran right-hander struggled in his most recent outing against San Diego late last September but still owns a 2.87 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Padres. Note that prior to that September start last year, he had The Mets bullpen has been solid lately but has been somewhat vulnerable here at home where it has posted a collective 3.57 ERA and blown six saves while converting 11. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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07-21-22 | Montreal v. Ottawa UNDER 48 | Top | 40-33 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 54 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'under' in the Alouettes stunning loss to the Elks last week but won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks narrow defeat at the hands of the Tiger-Cats. Here, I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as these two struggling East Division squads do battle in Ottawa on Thursday. Montreal allowed an early touchdown five minutes into the game against Edmonton last week but didn't give up another until the final four minutes of the second quarter. From there, the Als built a 31-12 lead before letting their guard down and allowing three unanswered touchdowns from the final four minutes of the third quarter on. Needless to say, Montreal's focus this week will be on turning in a complete 60 minute effort on the defensive side of the football. Note that the Als have actually held their last two opponents to a combined 37-of-61 passing and only gave up 82 rush yards on 23 attempts against Edmonton last week. They've been fortunate to score as many points as they have this season, noting they've gone four games without rushing for more than 87 yards while completing 19 or less passes in four of five contests. Ottawa has scored 17 points or less in three of its first five games this season. Since throwing for 380 and 331 yards in their first two games, the RedBlacks have been held to 162, 268 and 203 passing yards over their last three contests. They've yet to rush for more than 94 yards in a game this season. With the 'over' cashing in each of the Als last three games and Ottawa coming off an 'over' result against Hamilton, we're being offered a generous total here, especially considering you would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a game totalled more than 43 points. Take the under (10*). |
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07-16-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday night in San Diego. The D'Backs will hand the ball to Tyler Gilbert. While he's pitched well in his last couple of outings, his overall numbers this season still aren't good as he's recorded a 6.43 FIP and 1.26 WHIP while yielding just shy of 5.7 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Saturday will be Sean Manaea. Oddly enough, the D'Backs will be seeing him for the fourth time already this season. Manaea checks in sporting a 3.99 FIP and 1.22 WHIP while giving up 4.28 runs per nine innings. A bigger concern than Manaea is the Padres bullpen, which entered last night's game with a 7.33 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over its last seven contests. For its part, the D'Backs 'pen has posted a 4.97 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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07-16-22 | Ottawa v. Hamilton OVER 44.5 | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Hamilton at 5 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the RedBlacks loss to the Riders last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday as Ottawa heads to Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats. Both of these teams like to sling the ball all over the field. Ottawa checks in having attempted 34, 38, 27 and 33 passes over its last four contests. Hamilton has attempted 35, 51, 42 and 31 passes in its four games. With the RedBlacks once again missing two key defensive cogs in Patrick Levels and Abdul Kanneh and the Ti-Cats also likely to be without Simoni Lawrence, I believe we're in for an entertaining, relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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07-15-22 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This one sets up well for a high-scoring start as the Braves send Ian Anderson to the hill against Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. Anderson sports a 4.39 FIP and 1.51 WHIP on the season, yielding just shy of 5.1 runs per nine innings. Corbin has been even worse. He owns a 4.55 FIP and 1.67 WHIP on the campaign, giving up a whopping 6.65 runs per nine innings. We'll play the first five innings only as the two bullpens have admittedly been solid lately with both entering last night's action sporting sub-3.00 ERA's over the last seven contests. Look for the bats to come alive early on Friday. Take the first five innings over (9*). |