Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-25-22 | Sabres v. Senators OVER 6 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Senators enter this game off consecutive low-scoring affairs, collecting three of a possible four points in splitting two games in Washington and Columbus over the weekend. They just faced these same Sabres here at home one week ago tonight, with that game totalling just four goals in a Sabres 3-1 victory. Since then, Buffalo has lit it up offensively, scoring a whopping 10 goals over its last two games. Alex Tuch's debut has certainly fueled the Sabres mini-resurgence and I expect that to continue on Tuesday. Note that Ottawa allows 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. Interestingly, the Sens are averaging 3.9 goals per game with an average total of 7.1 goals when coming off a game in which they allowed one goal or less over the last two seasons (13-game sample size), as is the case here. As for Buffalo, it has allowed 3.8 goals per game the last 17 times it has come off two wins over its last three games. It's worth noting that Ottawa fired 44 shots on Sabres goaltender Michael Houser in his season debut last Tuesday. I'm confident they can improve considerably on their one goal scored in that contest, regardless whether we see Houser or Aaron Dell in goal for the Sabres in this one. Finally, I'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 205-166 with the Sens coming off consecutive games scoring two goals or less, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-24-22 | Blues v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We cashed a free play on the 'under' in the Blues 3-1 win in Vancouver last night. St. Louis jumped ahead early in the second period and was able to cruise the rest of the way with the Canucks missing plenty of offensive firepower due to Covid protocols. Tonight, I suspect St. Louis will need to keep its foot on the gas for three full periods as the Flames come in having scored eight goals in their last two games, and fired a whopping 47 shots on the Oilers net in a disappointing 5-3 loss on Saturday. Since December 30th, the Flames have scored 6, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 5 and 3 goals - good, but not great. Here, they'll catch a Blues squad in a back-to-back spot, and likely with currently the weaker of their two goaltenders in the crease in Jordan Binnington. Six of Binnington's last seven starts have totalled at least six goals. The last time he faced the Flames was right here in Calgary in January of 2020 when the Blues skated to a 5-4 victory. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 52-36 with the Blues coming off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 6.5 goals. The 'over' is also 24-13 in the Blues last 37 games following a contest that totalled four goals or less with that spot producing an average total of 6.6 goals. As for the Flames, the last 23 times they've played at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games, they've seen an average total of 6.6 goals scored. Also working in our favor is the fact that the Blues are expected to have Pavel Buchnevich back in the lineup after he was forced to remain in Seattle due to Canada's Covid rules. Take the over (10*). |
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01-24-22 | Pacers v. Pelicans OVER 215.5 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Monday. There are a number of key contributors missing due to injury on both sides but I still think this one finds its way 'over' the reasonable total on Monday. Let's keep in mind, the Pacers have scored 133, 111, 121 and 103 points in splitting the first four games on their current road trip. The problem for Indiana is it has thrown defense out the window for an extended period of time, allowing over 100 points in 19 consecutive games. As for the Pelicans, they've put up over 100 points in 15 of their last 16 games. The only occasion where they didn't reach the century mark was on the road in a three-in-four situation in Boston last Monday (in a sleepy matinee affair). While the 'under' has gone 11-9-1 in Pelicans home games this season, those contests have totalled an average of 217.8 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 41-26 with the Pacers coming off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 225.6 points and 23-10 with the Pelicans playing at home off a win over the last three seasons, with that situation resulting in an average of 235.6 total points. Take the over (9*). |
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01-24-22 | Louisville v. Virginia UNDER 124.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. I love the way this one sets up as a prime bounce-back spot for both defenses. Louisville just gave up 82 points on a ridiculous 63% shooting in a loss to Notre Dame on Saturday, marking its fourth loss in its last five games. There's no reason to expect a repeat performance here as the Cardinals look to contain a Virginia team that hasn't sniffed 70 points over its last five games, topping out at 66 points and scoring sub-60 in three of those contests. For its part, Virginia allowed N.C. State to score 77 points on 60% shooting in a loss on Saturday. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Cavaliers last two games. That situation has come up three times previously this season, and on each occasion the 'under' has cashed in the next game. We know the Hoos' can play defense. Here at home they're allowing just 57.5 points per game on 40.6% shooting. The Cardinals don't figure to be able to expose any sort of weaknesses, noting that they average right around three points below their season scoring average on the road, where they shoot just a shade over 40% from the field. The last time these two teams met on this floor they combined to score just 111 points. Expect more of the same on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
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01-23-22 | 76ers v. Spurs OVER 220 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and San Antonio at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the 76ers and Spurs on Sunday evening as both teams look to bounce back from disappointing losses last time out. Philadelphia blew a big lead in a 102-101 home loss to the Clippers on Friday. The Sixers should know better than to take their foot off the gas but that's essentially what happened in that contest. While they're generally a solid defensive team, they've allowed over 100 points in three straight games and figure to struggle to contain a Spurs offense that has put up over the century mark in six straight games and averages just shy of 114 points per contest at home this season. To say that San Antonio has had its hands full with the Sixers offense in recent meetings would be an understatement. It has allowed 122, 115, 132, 134, 113 and 119 points in the last six matchups in this series going back to the start of 2019. Interestingly, the Spurs have been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing opponents to score 112.8 points per game on 46.5% shooting. The 'over' has gone 10-2 with San Antonio in the role of home underdog this season with that spot producing an average total of 226.4 points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -105 | 130 h 17 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have been involved in a pair of high-scoring shootouts going back to last year's playoffs so it's not surprising that we're dealing with a total in the mid-50's in advance of Sunday's Divisional Round showdown in Kansas City. I believe that total will prove too high. Both defenses are for the most part healthy entering this clash (with the exception of Tre'Davious White for the Bills who has been sidelined for quite some time). While the offenses generally get all of the press, the two defenses are elite. The Bills check in allowing just 17.5 points per game on the road this season. The Chiefs give up 17.9 points per game at home. While the Chiefs have supreme confidence in their ability to go back-and-forth with any offense in the league, there is some reason for caution here after Buffalo rolled up well over 400 yards and hung 38 points on them here at Arrowhead Stadium back in October. I think it would be foolish to expect a similar performance from the Buffalo offense here, however. The Chiefs defense was a mess going into that matchup, having allowed 29, 36, 30 and 30 points over their first four games of the season. Since then, Kansas City has allowed 21 points or less in nine of 13 games and that 21-point performance came by way of a defensive score from the Steelers last Sunday. The Bills defense has had a giant chip on its shoulder ever since getting run over by the Patriots ground game in that memorable Monday night affair back in early December. They've given up just 77 points over their last five games. I have a lot of respect for both offenses and they'll undoubtedly find some success in this game. But we're talking about an extremely high total here - too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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01-22-22 | Blackhawks v. Wild OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Wild home games are averaging a whopping 7.5 goals this season and I expect that high-scoring trend to continue in this quick rematch between the Blackhawks and Wild on Saturday night. Minnesota skated to a 5-1 win in Chicago in the front half of this home-and-home series last night. The Wild have now scored a whopping 15 goals over their last three games. Tonight they'll likely get to face Blackhawks backup goaltender Kevin Lankinen, who has posted a sub .890 save percentage this season, after Marc-Andre Fleury performed admirably, starting each of their last eight games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 33-19 with the Blackhawks coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.5 goals. The 'over' is also 12-4 with the Hawks playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in their previous game, leading to an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. As for the Wild, they've posted an 8-1 o/u record when playing at home in the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, with an average total of 6.9 goals scored in that situation. Better still, the 'over' is 11-3 with the Wild coming off a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons, with an average total of 7.1 goals scored in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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01-22-22 | Maple Leafs v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs are coming off consecutive wild, high-scoring games against the Blues and Rangers, splitting those two contests. Despite their potent offense, they don't want to make a habit of getting involved in those type of affairs. They'll turn to backup Petr Mrazek in goal for this one but that's not necessarily a bad thing as Jack Campbell, who has performed well a a whole this season, has struggled lately, posting a miserable .866 save percentage over his last four games. The Islanders are coming off a 4-0 home win over the lowly Coyotes last night. They've scored exactly four goals in three consecutive games but that's not a sustainable trend, noting that they average just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season, with those games totalling an average of only 4.6 goals. The 'under' is a long-term 20-9 with the Isles playing at home off a game in which they scored four goals or more, as is the case here, producing an average total of just 4.8 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 10-2 the last 12 times New York has played at home after scoring three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.2 goals. As for the Leafs, they've seen the 'under' cash at a perfect 6-0 clip the last six times they've played on the road after consecutive games that totalled eight goals or more, as is the case here, producing an average total of only 4.8 goals in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans OVER 47 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -108 | 123 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We got what we wanted with a relatively low-scoring game in the Bengals playoff debut last Saturday. Cincinnati has had a tendency to ease off the gas offensively in games where it hasn't needed to trade scores and we certainly saw that against the Raiders. With that being said, there was nothing I saw from the Bengals offense in that game that gave me pause looking ahead to playing the 'over' in this matchup. Cincinnati was able to move the football up and down the field with little resistance against the Raiders and I like the way it matches up against the Titans as well. Tennessee faced an extremely soft stretch of defensive opponents over the second half of the season. Look at their lineup of opponents going back to Week 10; New Orleans, Houston, New England, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, San Francisco (in a game where Jimmy Garoppolo injured his thumb), Miami and Houston again. Not surprisingly, the Titans defense posted some solid numbers over that stretch while their offense was able to tread water and do just enough to earn the number-one seed. Now the Titans defense will certainly be tested, but I also think their offense will be more than up to the challenge, noting that they're expected to get RB Derrick Henry back on the field while the Bengals lost a number of key defensive cogs to injury in last week's win, with Larry Ogunjobi already ruled out and Trey Hendrickson and Mike Daniels' status still up in the air. These two teams actually matched up last season and combined to score 51 points in a Bengals win in Cincinnati. That game saw a closing total of 49 points. Remember, earlier this season the Titans regularly saw totals posted in the 50's - in six of their first nine games, in fact. This total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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01-21-22 | Penguins v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in the Penguins 6-4 win over the Senators last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Friday in Columbus as both the Pens and Blue Jackets play the second of back-to-backs. Note that we're likely to see a matchup of the backup goaltenders in this one. Statistically-speaking, Casey DeSmith and Joonas Korpisalo have been two of the weakest backups in the league this season with DeSmith posting a .888 save percentage with a 6-2 o/u record in eight starts while Korpisalo has recorded a .882 save percentage with an 8-2 o/u mark in 10 starts. While these two teams haven't met in Columbus in a while, it has certainly been a high-scoring series at Nationwide Arena over the years with the last seven matchups here totalling 7, 5, 7, 9, 7, 9 and 9 goals. The Jackets have been held to just two goals in consecutive games but average 3.5 goals per contest here at home this season with their games averaging a total of 6.7 goals. For their part, the Pens average 3.3 goals per game on the road and are red hot right now, having potted 11 goals over their last two games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times the Blue Jackets have come off a game where four goals or less were scored, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 7.0 goals in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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01-20-22 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 6 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Senators are coming off a low-scoring game at home against the Sabres two nights ago and that actually sets us up well with a play on the 'over' on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 with the Sens coming off a game that totalled four goals or less over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 8.9 goals. The 'over' is also 16-6 with the Sens playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons with that spot leading to an average total of 7.8 goals. As for the Pens, they average 4.2 goals and have seen an average total of 6.5 goals when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent by two goals or more over the last two seasons (13-game sample size). Pens goaltender Tristan Jarry has been having a terrific season but has struggled a bit lately, posting an .899 save percentage over his last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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01-19-22 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 230.5 | Top | 116-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. This total has been dropping in our favor, not surprisingly, as bettors realize the Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell on Wednesday night. I'm expecting nothing short of a track meet in Salt Lake City. The Rockets are playing better basketball than they had been, recording two wins in their last three games, scoring 128, 114 and 118 points over their last three games. They're as healthy as they've been all season and should come out with an attacking mindset against a suddenly-struggling Jazz squad. Utah has lost five of its last six games and has posted its two lowest-scoring games of the season over its last three contests. Even without Mitchell, this is a fine 'get right' spot for the Jazz, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. The Rockets are one of the league's worst defensive teams and check in having allowed 130, 141, 111, 124, 126 and 112 points over their last six games. To say the 'over' has been a solid bet in Rockets games would be a massive understatement as they've posted a 21-7 o/u record over their last 28 games. While Utah carries a reputation of being a solid defensive team, it has actually given up over 100 points in 18 consecutive games. The 'over' is 20-9-1 in the Jazz's last 30 contests. Finally, I'll point out that the last meeting between these two teams here in Utah took place last May and totalled a whopping 240 points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-19-22 | Maple Leafs v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in New York on Wednesday. Both teams are brimming with talent offensively, we know that. But this game also features a matchup between two of the league's best young goaltenders in Jack Campbell and Igor Shesterkin (based on scheduling both should get the nod in goal tonight). Campbell has struggled on Toronto's current trip but still owns a .931 save percentage while Shesterkin checks in sporting a .939 save percentage on the season. The Leafs are coming off a wild 6-5 win in St. Louis on Saturday. They're also just one game removed from a 2-1 loss in Arizona though and check in allowing 2.9 goals per game on the road this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 15-6 with the Leafs playing on the road after scoring five goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. The Rangers are in a bit of a tough spot here, back home off a long road trip that took them all over the map. They're 10-5 on home ice this season where they've given up just 2.3 goals per game. While their exceptional talent up front gets most of the press, the Blueshirts are actually averaging less than 3.0 goals per game this season (2.9). Note that the 'under' has gone 12-3 the last 15 times they've played at home after winning five or six of their last seven games, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of only 5.0 goals. They're allowing just 2.2 goals on average when coming off a win this season with an average total of 5.0 goals in that spot as well. Finally, we'll note that the first two meetings in this series this season produced 2-1 final scores with the teams splitting those two contests. Take the under (10*). |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 50 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. As much as we'd all like to see an entertaining, back-and-forth shootout to close out Wild Card weekend, I don't think we're going to get it when the Cards and Rams match up for the third time this season on Monday night. The Arizona offense is a shadow of its former self right now. It seems like an eternity ago that the Cards boatraced the Rams in a 37-20 stunner here at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. Let's face it, the Cards offense has been hamstrung since losing WE DeAndre Hopkins. The fact that TE Zach Ertz has essentially become the focal point of the passing game is telling. QB Kyler Murray has been running for his life most games (he was sacked five times against Seattle last week). Now he faces a Rams defense that has seemingly figured him out, holding him to just eight all-purpose touchdowns in six career matchups not to mention a very pedestrian 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The last time these two teams met Murray had the benefit of facing a Rams defense that was without Jalen Ramsey due to Covid protocols. With all of that being said, there is a path for the Cards to stay competitive in this game and that involves effectively shortening it by running the football (both James Conner and Chase Edmonds are apparently good to go health-wise) and playing smart, fundamentally-sound defense. Let's face it, the Cards defense wasn't good in last week's loss to the Seahawks. We know they're capable of better though and there is help on the way with J.J. Watt, Jordan Phillips and Marco Wilson expected back from injury. No Watt isn't the game-changer he once was, but his presence is a factor on this defense. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Cards have come off a game in which they allowed 30+ points, with that situation producing an average total of just 41.6 points. The 'under' is also an identical 12-4 in Arizona's last 16 road games and Los Angeles' last 16 home games with those games producing totals well below the number we're working with here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-17-22 | Blackhawks v. Seattle Kraken OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Seattle at 5:05 pm et on Monday. This total has been set too low, largely due to recent results. Note that the first meeting between these two teams this season totalled six goals as the Blackhawks skated to a 4-2 win here in Seattle. Chicago enters this game having allowed two goals or less in four straight games. Keep in mind, we're talking about a team that has allowed 3.2 goals per game this season and 3.4 goals per game on the road. Seattle is reeling right now and has scored only two goals over its last two games. The Kraken do average 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 7-1 with the Kraken coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division rival this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. As for the Blackhawks, the 'over' is 9-1 with Chicago coming off three consecutive games allowing two goals or less, which is the situation here. That spot has produced an average total of 7.0 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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01-16-22 | Canucks v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Washington at 2:05 pm et on Sunday. The Canucks have fallen on hard times on their current road trip, not a surprise as they're coming off a three-game stretch in what I like to call the NHL's version of the 'Bermuda Triangle', facing the Panthers, Lightning and Hurricanes in succession. Here, Vancouver does catch Washington coming off a 2-0 win over the Islanders yesterday, which is notable as the Caps are 0-4 when returning home off a road win by two goals or more this season, allowing 3.5 goals on average in that situation. The Caps have generally been fairly forgiving defensively at home this season, allowing 2.8 goals per game. I'll also note that the 'over' is 17-5 with the Caps coming off a game that totalled three goals or less over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.8 goals scored. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 16-6 with the Canucks playing on the road after a game where they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 7.1 goals. Take the over (8*). |
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01-14-22 | Ducks v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Anaheim and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Friday. With the Ducks allowing 3.2 goals per game on the road and the Wild giving up 3.1 goals per game on home ice, I think the oddsmakers are a little too optimistic when it comes to both of these defenses on Friday night. Also note that each of the last three meetings between these two teams in Minnesota have totalled exactly seven goals. Better still, the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 in Minnesota's eight previous home games where the total was set at 5.5 this season with that situation producing an average total of 8.2 goals scored. In the longer-term picture, note that the 'over' is 18-7 the last 25 times the Wild have come off consecutive games in which they gave up two or less goals, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. The Ducks have been consistently poor at keeping the puck out of their own net over the last month or so, allowing 6, 2, 3, 4, 1, 4, 3 and 4 goals over their last eight games, good for an average of 3.4 goals allowed per contest. Take the over (8*). |
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01-14-22 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 223.5 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. After being held down offensively (relatively speaking) in consecutive games against top-level defensive teams in the Bucks and 76ers, I look for the Hornets to bust out in this one (noting that they're coming off consecutive sub-110-point scoring performances for the first time since mid-December). Charlotte has scored 120 and 106 points in the first two meetings in this series this season. Note that on the latter occasion, the Hornets shot a miserable 12-of-41 from three-point range. Perhaps they could be excused for that performance as they were playing their third game in five nights on the road. The Magic aren't exactly shooting the lights out right now but they are expected to get an offensive boost with the likely return of Jalen Suggs on Friday night. Note that the 'over' is 48-30 when the Magic seek revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons and Charlotte just happens to be one of the most forgiving defensive teams in the league, giving up an average of 115.5 points per game. The last time these two teams squared off here in Charlotte, they combined to score 234 points last May. There's little reason to expect the Hornets to 'manage' this game and perhaps hold a little something back as they will have the entire weekend off before heading to New York for a date with the Knicks on Monday. Charlotte averages 118.3 points per game when playing before two or more days off this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-14-22 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 210 | 99-111 | Push | 0 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Perhaps we're seeing a bit of an overreaction in the betting markets here after the 76ers were held to just 98 points in a losing effort at home against the Hornets two nights ago, combined with the fact that the 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this series. Keep in mind, each of those three matchups were played in Boston. The last time these two teams met in Philadelphia they combined to score 232 points last January. Interestingly, the 'over' is 29-17 the last 46 times the Celtics have been in the role of underdog with that situation producing an average total of 226.7 points. Despite that poor offensive showing against the Hornets, the 76ers have still managed to score 110 points or more in seven of their last eight contests. Celtics road games have been considerably higher scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of 216.3 points. Take the over (9*). |
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01-13-22 | Thunder v. Nets UNDER 219.5 | 130-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Brooklyn at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. This total has been rising since opening, not a big surprise with the Nets having scored 138 points in a win in Chicago last night while Oklahoma City comes off a season-high 118-point effort in Washington two nights ago. Keep in mind, we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results from the Thunder since December 26th and 28th while the Nets haven't posted back-to-back 'over' results since December 25th and 27th. Here, I'll also note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Thunder seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent this season, which is the case here after the Nets took the first meeting this season 120-96 in Oklahoma City back in November. That situation has produced a ridiculously-low average total (by today's NBA standards) of just 195.0 points. The 'under' is also 34-20 with the Nets playing at home off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 218.4 points in that spot. Take the under (8*). |
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01-13-22 | Canadiens v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The last time these two teams met back in early December the Blackhawks skated to a low-scoring 2-0 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Chicago on Thursday. Montreal is coming off a 5-1 loss in Boston last night. That's notable as the 'over' has gone 10-1 in the Habs last 11 road games in the second of back-to-backs, resulting in an average total of 7.6 goals. The Blackhawks are back home after scoring 10 goals over the course of a three-game road trip. Note that the 'over' is 12-3 the last 15 times Chicago comes off a road win by two or more goals, as is the case here following Tuesday's 4-2 victory in Columbus. That situation has produced an average total of 7.6 goals as well. While the Habs are missing a number of key contributors up front and have had an awful time trying to find the back of the net, this is a more favorable matchup than they've seen recently (their last four games have come at Tampa, Carolina, Florida and Boston), noting that the Hawks allow 3.4 goals per game on home ice this season. Montreal will likely be forced to go with Sam Montembault between the pipes in this one after he came on in relief of an injured Jake Allen last night. Montembault has allowed a whopping 17 goals in his last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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01-12-22 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 231.5 | Top | 116-125 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and the second in a little over a week. Last week's game went the Lakers way by a 122-114 score in Los Angeles. Naturally, that high-scoring 'over' result is leading to a slightly higher posted total for this one, but I believe it's the wrong move. While the Lakers have not surprisingly been a weaker offensive team on the road this season, they've also been a stronger defensive team - at least from a points per game allowed perspective. The 'under' checks in a profitable 9-7 in their 16 road contests to date, including a matchup between these same two teams here in Sacramento back in November that totalled just 209 points. The Kings have seen the 'under' cash at a 15-9 clip at home this season and enter this game playing a rather uneven brand of offensive basketball, having scored 102, 111, 88 and 108 points over their last four games with the 'under' cashing in three of those contests. The Lakers have of course seen the 'over' cash in three consecutive high-scoring affairs but I do think we have a 'catalyst for change' at play here as they hit the road, and do so off a disappointing loss against the Grizzlies on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 24-12 in the Lakers last 36 road games when coming off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 215.3 points. The 'under' is a perfect 9-0 in the Kings last nine games when coming off a game in which they covered the spread but failed to win outright, which is the situation here off Monday's narrow home loss to the Cavs. Take the under (10*). |
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01-11-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 216.5 | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. One of my favorite situations is in play on Tuesday night in Washington, noting that the last 29 times the Wizards have played at home off an 'under' result, we've seen an average total of 234.1 points scored. In fact, we haven't seen the Wiz post consecutive 'under' results since November 20th and 22nd. The Thunder have been held to 97 points or less in five of their last six games but I see this as a solid 'get right' opportunity for them offensively, especially after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was held to just eight points on a woeful 2-of-14 shooting against Denver last time out. The best players tend to bounce back and I expect that from SGA here. Note that despite their recent stretch, the Thunder do average 107.0 points and an average total of 218.1 total points when coming off a game in which they were held to 100 points or less, as is the case here. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 200 points. That helps to keep this total in check, noting that last year's two meetings saw closing totals of 233.5 and 232.5 in games that reached 226 and 238 total points. Take the over (9*). |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 52.5 | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Georgia and Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday. We saw a wild, high-scoring first half between these two teams in the SEC Championship Game, fueled by a mistake-laden, back-and-forth second quarter. It's worth noting that the first quarter in that game actually saw just three points scored. Both teams threw the football 40+ times in that contest, which eventually went Alabama's way by a 41-24 score. Chalk that up as an anomaly as I don't think either team wants to be up in the 40's in terms of pass attempts again here, noting that it hadn't happened in any of the previous 11 meetings in this series going all the way back to 1994. I certainly expect a cleaner performance from Georgia here, noting that prior to that SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs had given up a grand total of 29 points in the first half in their first 12 games this season (they allowed 24 points in the first half against Alabama). They would go on to give up only three first half points against Michigan in the Orange Bowl CFP semi-final. Of course, there's little reason to expect Alabama to get lit up defensively early in this game. There were certainly lessons to be learned from watching the Bulldogs race out to a 27-3 halftime lead against Michigan. This is the first time we've seen these two SEC combatants meet for a second time in the same season and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the first half under (10*). |
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01-10-22 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Despite a relatively low-scoring playoff series between these two teams last spring, we've still seen four of the last seven meetings here in Washington go 'over' the total and I like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair as well. Boston has scored exactly five goals in three of its last four games and is well-positioned for another strong offensive performance here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Bruins coming off a division win this season, as is the case here, as they've averaged 3.9 goals in that spot with an average total of 7.0 goals. The Caps have been held to three goals or less in four straight games - their longest such streak of the season. Keep in mind, three of those last four contests were played on the road. Here at home, Washington averages 3.5 goals per game this season with an average total of 6.1 goals. We'll note that the 'over' is 25-14 the last 39 times the Caps have come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that situation. Take the over (10*) |
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01-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 226 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers defense has been dreadful over the course of their current 6-2 'over' run but they have an opportunity to perhaps catch their breath here as the Grizzlies stay in L.A. after brushing aside the Clippers yeterday afternoon and play their fifth game in the last seven nights, having gone a perfect 4-0 in their previous four, part of an eight-game winning streak. Not only are the Grizzlies likely road weary (their last four games have been played in four different cities), they're also dealing with some key injuries and absences. They recently welcomed Dillon Brooks back to the lineup but he was forced to leave yesterday's game with an ankle injury. Ja Morant sat out yesterday's game with a thigh injury but could return tonight. Regardless, it's worth noting that the Grizzlies have held 20 of their last 22 opponents to 108 points or less. The two teams that scored more than that were the Suns and Warriors and even in those games the Grizzlies only allowed 113 points. After the first meeting between these two teams totalled 239 points back in October, their two matchups in December reached identical totals of 203 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games following six or more consecutive victories while the 'under' is 26-9 in the Lakers last 35 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Ohio State at 5:30 pm et on Sunday. I expect points to come at a premium in this Big Ten matchup with Northwestern coming off consecutive home losses in-conference and Ohio State fresh off a 16-point dismantling at the hands of Indiana on the road. Note that the Buckeyes have turned in two of their best defensive efforts of the season when coming off their two previous losses this season, holding Duke to 38.5% shooting following a loss to Florida and Seton Hall to 38.1% shooting after a loss against Xavier. Note that Ohio State checks in 49th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Northwestern has given up 70+ points in consecutive games for the first time this season but still ranks top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I don't expect Ohio State to run away and hide in this one, noting that the Buckeyes sit 249th in the country in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). While Northwestern generally likes to push the pace a little bit, I'm not sure it will be afforded the opportunity to do so against the Buckeyes. The Wildcats have been able to force the tempo in large part thanks to facing the nation's 265th toughest schedule. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Wildcats have played on the road following an 'over' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 126.3 points. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 89-60 with the Buckeyes playing at home coming off an ATS loss, which is also the situation here, producing an average total of 133.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 44.5 | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season way back in mid-September. We're likely to see a much different story unfold here as the Packers have little to play for and will likely only field their starters, on offense in particular, for a cameo appearance on Sunday afternoon in Detroit. As for the Lions, their offense has become depleted over the course of the season, missing TE T.J. Hockenson in particular. Despite 35+ pass attempts in four of its last five games, Detroit has topped out at 272 passing yards over that stretch with that performance coming in its first victory of the season against the defense-optional Vikings. I would anticipate a RB De'Andre Swift-centric offensive gameplan from the Lions here and the Packers likely wouldn't oppose to that as they look to get this game over with as quickly as possible and move on to playoff preparations. Note that both regular season meetings between these two NFC North rivals haven't gone 'over' the total since back in 2017. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 51-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. |
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01-08-22 | Maple Leafs v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Colorado at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. This isn't likely to be a popular play on Saturday night but that doesn't mean it isn't the right one. The Leafs are likely going to be without Mitch Marner due to Covid protocols. Note that Toronto checks in averaging just 2.2 goals the last five times it has played on the road off four or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Avs have allowed only 1.8 goals per game the last 19 times they've played at home off a contest that totalled at least seven goals, which is also the case tonight. The 'under' is 12-3 with the Leafs playing on the road off a home win by two goals or more with that spot producing an average total of only 5.0 goals while the 'under' is a perfect 11-0 with the Avs playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.3 goals. That's the scenario here after the Leafs skated to a wild 8-3 home win over the Avs earlier this season. Take the under (8*). |
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01-07-22 | Cavs v. Blazers UNDER 216 | 114-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Portland at 10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Cavs most recent game against the Grizzlies on Wednesday (most actually won as the total shifted downward after posting) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Cleveland heads on the road to face Portland on Friday. The Blazers couldn't have performed much better offensively two nights ago against Miami but still fell by a 115-109 score (we won with the Heat in that game). In that contest, the Blazers knocked down 15 three-pointers and made a whopping 36 trips to the free throw line - yet still scored 'only' 109 points. I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here, noting that the Blazers top two scoring options, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum of course remain sidelined. Defensively, the Blazers have been a wreck. The good news here is, they catch the Cavs a little out of sorts offensively, having scored 104, 93, 118, 108 and 106 points over their last five games. Going all the way back to mid-November, their last 10 road games have totalled 208, 210, 196, 217, 216, 229, 209, 212, 212 and 203 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 211 total points back in November and that was with the two teams at full strength. Take the under (9*). |
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01-07-22 | Capitals v. Blues UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both the Capitals and Blues will be looking to bounce back from losses on Friday night with Washington coming off a 4-3 home loss against the Devils and St. Louis fresh off a tough 5-3 loss in Pittsburgh - a game in which they blew a 3-2 third period lead. You would have to go back three meetings to find the last time a matchup between these two teams went 'over' five goals. Note that the Caps are giving up just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season while the Blues have allowed just 2.4 goals per game on home ice. Here, we'll also note that the 'under' is a stellar 15-5 the last 20 times the Blues have come off consecutive games totalling seven goals or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of only 4.8 goals. The 'under' is also a perfect 5-0 the last five times St. Louis has played at home after winning four or five of its last six games, producing an average total of only 4.4 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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01-06-22 | Pistons v. Grizzlies UNDER 220 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We just missed with the 'over' in the Grizzlies most recent game in Cleveland two nights ago (most actually cashed in that game as the total shifted throughout the day). Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the spot sets up perfectly to do so on Thursday night. I came close to playing the 'under' in the Pistons game in Charlotte last night but wisely laid off as that game sailed 'over' the number. The Pistons had actually been playing well defensively going into that contest but ran into a buzzsaw against a Hornets squad coming off a tough loss in Washington. Here, I think we can anticipate the Grizzlies 'managing' this game with a two-game trip to Los Angeles on deck (and playing their third game in four nights with a number of key contributors likely still sidelined due to illness/injury). The Pistons have scored 117, 115 and 111 points over their last three games although that first result was aided by overtime. They still average just over 101 points per game on the road this season, however, and put up only 95 points in their lone visit to Memphis last season. Note that the 'under' is 11-1 in the Pistons last 12 games after giving up 130+ points, as is the case here while the 'under' checks in a perfect 8-0 in the Grizzlies last eight home games following four or more consecutive victories. Take the under (9*). |
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01-04-22 | Grizzlies v. Cavs OVER 218 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. With the Grizzlies riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 127, 114, 104, 118 and 118 points over that stretch it's going to take quite an effort to knock them off course. The Cavs check in having allowed 108, 110, 121 and 104 points over their last four contests so Memphis should have plenty of runway to keep rolling on Tuesday. With that being said, Cleveland has also scored 118 and 108 points in its last two games and as a short home favorite, isn't likely to back down from the challenge here. Note that the 'over' is 10-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road off a double-digit road win over the last two seasons, as is the case here following last night's rout of the Nets. That situation has produced an average total of a whopping 242.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 28-15 with the Cavs playing at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points over the last three seasons with that spot resulting in an average total of 220.0 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 253 points in Memphis back in October. Take the over (10*). |
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01-02-22 | Magic v. Celtics UNDER 216.5 | 111-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Boston at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Keeping in mind the Magic are just two games removed from their lowest scoring performance of the entire season while the Celtics posted their lowest point total of the season just two games back, not to mention the fact that these two teams combined to score only 171 points in their first meeting this season, I believe this total will prove too high. The Celtics caught the Suns flat-footed in a matinee affair in Boston on Friday, putting up 120 points in a double-digit win. They're still averaging just 107.5 points per game at home this season. The Magic, meanwhile, check in averaging just a shade over 103 points per contest on the road. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 15-5 with the Celtics playing in the role of favorite this season with that situation producing an average total of just 105.6 points. Take the under (9*). |
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01-02-22 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 139.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Northwestern at 2 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams have been filling up boxscores in the early going this season with Michigan State checking in with an 11-2 record and Northwestern sitting at 8-2. With both teams averaging just shy of 80 points per game I can understand why we're looking at a total in the high-130s on Sunday. I believe it will prove too high, however. This will be the toughest test either team has faced in the last month. I don't think we're going to see Michigan allow Northwestern to get out and push the pace as much as it would like in this home matchup. I do, however, believe that the Wildcats will be able to run their offense, noting that they're turning the ball over only nine times per game while Michigan State has forced just 11 turnovers per contest. While both teams have shot well, neither has put up over-the-top numbers in terms of three-pointers of free throws made per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 17-6 the last 23 times the Spartans have played on the road after scoring 75+ points in four straight games, as is the case here. Northwestern has had a tendency to struggle in these January Big Ten home games, averaging just 62 points per game while going 0-7 ATS in its last seven home tilts in the first month of the year. Take the under (10*). |
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01-02-22 | Jaguars v. Patriots OVER 41 | Top | 10-50 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the 'over' in games involving the Jaguars in each of the last two weeks and I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here as we once again deal with a total set in the low-40's. Jacksonville has at least shown some life since ousting much-maligned head coach Urban Meyer. Over the last two games we've seen the Jags attempt a whopping 77 passes, completing 48 of those for well over 400 yards. That's progress as far as I'm concerned. Of course, we should temper expectations here as those last two performances came against the lowly Texans and Jets. That being said, I would expect to see the Jags stay aggressive as a massive underdog here. What do they have to lose? The Patriots on the other hand should absolutely go off in this bounce-back spot off last week's home loss against the Bills. The Jags have shown no semblance of run defense whatsoever, last week allowing the Jets to rush for a whopping 273 yards. That was before they lost a number of run-stuffers to the Covid list late in the week. Here, we'll note that Patriots home games have totalled an average of just shy of 50 points this season. Meanwhile, the Jags for all their problems still put up over 14 points per contest on the road, with those games averaging just shy of 42 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 217.5 | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Three of the Bulls four highest scoring totals of the season have come in their last five games and they're fresh off a thrilling 108-106 win in Indiana yesterday. The fact that both the Bulls and Wizards are coming off 'under' results helps keep Saturday's total in a very reasonable range. Consider that these two teams are just one meeting removed from a game that totalled 263 points. Washington is just three games removed from its second-highest scoring total of the season. While it did allow just 93 points in its most recent game that came against an undermanned Cavs squad due to Covid protocols. Prior to that, the Wiz had given up 117, 117 and 119 points over their last three games. Here, we'll note that the last 28 times the Wiz have played at home off an 'under' result, they have seen an average total of 234.0 points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I'm not anticipating a track meet between the undermanned Clippers and the Raptors on Friday night. Note that Toronto will have most of its players back for this game after dealing with Covid protocols and that means plenty of shuffling with its rotation for head coach Nick Nurse. The Raps have had some terrific offensive outbursts lately but still average just north of 104 points per game at home this season. Meanwhile, the Clippers have allowed two of their three lowest point totals of the season over their last four games and they'll need to continue to play that style with Paul George and a host of other key contributors sidelined. The Clips average right around 103 points per game on the road this season with those contests averaging 207.1 total points. Los Angeles has shot 40.7% or worse in consecutive games while Toronto checks in having shot 43.7% or worse over its last two contests. Take the under (8*). |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin OVER 41 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Bowl First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Arizona State and Wisconsin at 10:30 pm et on Thursday.
This is one of the lowest totals we'll see during Bowl season and while I can certainly understand the logic behind it, I believe it sets us up well to attack the first half total with a play on the 'over'. The common line of thinking here is that Wisconsin is going to pound the football all night long while Arizona State simply looks to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately shorten this game in an effort to stay competitive. I actually think we'll see the Sun Devils and Badgers both take some shots down the field early on, however, in an effort to catch the opposing stout defenses off guard and open things up for the ground games to go off later in the contest. In other words, I can certainly see the game getting off to a relatively high-scoring start before the defenses and ground games settle in. Note that the Sun Devils saw an average total of 28.8 points scored in the first half in their games played away from home this season. Their defense certainly looked beatable away from Tempe, giving up 17 points per game in the first half. Wisconsin's defense allowed 1.5 points per game more in the first half away from home compared to at home, with its road contests totalling an average of 19.8 points - just shy of the number we're working with tonight. I have plenty of respect for the Wisconsin defense but here it will be facing a different type of offense than it's accustomed to seeing in the Big 10, with Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels a dual-threat capable of creating splash plays with his arm or his legs. Meanwhile, Badgers fans are hoping this can be a lift-off game for QB Graham Mertz heading into 2022, something they've of course been starving for all season. Look for him to be afforded the opportunity to push the ball down field early on. Take the first half over (10*). |
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12-30-21 | Canadiens v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canadiens couldn't have gotten a worse draw coming out of the holiday break, first facing the Lightning in Tampa before heading to Raleigh to take on the Hurricanes, all while being undermanned due to Covid protocols. It's dire straights for the Habs on defense and between the pipes right now and things don't figure to improve against a Hurricanes squad that will have most of its key contributors up front back from Covid quarantine on Thursday. However, Carolina will be without goaltender Frederik Andersen meaning we should see Antti Rantta in goal for this one. That does open the door for a Habs offense that had considerable success, albeit against the Lightning's third-string goaltender on Tuesday. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair here. Take the over (8*). |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson OVER 44 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa State and Clemson at 5:45 pm et on Wednesday. This is one of the lowest posted totals we'll see in Bowl season. I believe it will prove too low. Iowa State is in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as Clemson ran the football 40+ times in six of its final 10 regular season games, and it had plenty of success doing so, particularly at the tail-end of the season as it piled up nearly 600 rushing yards in its final two contests. Only one of the Cyclones 12 opponents this season ran the football 40+ times. Note that two of their final three opponents gained over 200 yards on the ground. Of course, running the football equates to time off the clock. I'm not overly concerned, however, as I do feel the Clemson ground game should only serve to open things up for the pass. On the flip side, Iowa State is going to sling the football all over the field, especially without RB Breece Hall. The Cyclones threw the football 39, 42, 52 and 30 times over their final four regular season games, racking up over 300 yards passing in three of those games while scoring a whopping 48 points in the other. Take the over (10*). |
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12-28-21 | Northwestern State v. Baylor UNDER 146 | Top | 68-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern State and Baylor at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are anticipating on Tuesday night. Northwestern State has faced an extremely tough schedule so far this season - the seventh-toughest in the country according to KenPom. It faces another very tough matchup on the road against defending national champion Baylor on Tuesday. I expect it to once again struggle offensively, noting that it checks in averaging just six made three-pointers and 13 free throw attempts per game this season. Baylor meanwhile allows an average of only five made threes per game at home while sending opponents to the free throw line just 13 times per game on average. The question becomes whether Baylor goes off offensively in this one. It scored 94 points in its most recent game against Alcorn State. Prior to that it had scored fewer than 80 points in five of its last six games. Note that the Bears average nine made threes per game and should approach that average here. However, they also average only 10 made free throws per contest. Despite facing a difficult schedule, Northwestern State has managed to force an average of 12 turnovers per game while Baylor has turned it over 10 or more times in six consecutive games heading into this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup on December 17th and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. The Jazz are coming off a close call against the undermanned Mavs on Saturday. Three of their six highest point totals allowed this season have come over their last five games. Now they'll have to contend with a Spurs squad that has registered its three highest point totals of the season over its last five contests. Also note, however, that three of San Antonio's four highest point totals given up this season have also come in its last eight games. The Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell for Monday's game (back) but he's been in and out of the lineup numerous times over the last couple of seasons so they're accustomed to playing without him. Outside of that, the Jazz and Spurs have remained two of the most unscathed teams when it comes to Covid protocols. Take the over (10*). |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints UNDER 37 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 102 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFL MNF 1H Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We'll play the first half total only in this one as there's obviously plenty of uncertainty when it comes to the Saints gameplan on both sides of the football with so many key contributors sidelined. I like the way it sets up as a low-scoring start. While this looks like a slam dunk for the Fins on paper given all of the Saints absences, they'll have to be careful not to overlook New Orleans, which still has many of its defensive anchors on the field. I'm anticipating a more conservative offensive gameplan here after QB Tua Tagovailoa turned the football over twice in last week's win over the Jets, including one interception that was returned for a touchdown. We've seen renewed balance from the Miami offense lately as it has ran the football at least 39 times in two of its last three games and finally appears to have a fully healthy backfield for this one. The Saints are going to be extra-cautious when they have the football with fourth-string QB Ian Book running the offense. We can obviously expect to see a heavy dose of RB Alvin Kamara in this one. Regardless, I'm not expecting much from the New Orleans offense. Note that the Saints are averaging a woeful 6.0 points in the first half at home this season. The Dolphins, meanwhile, average 9.5 points in the first half on the road. The 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 in the first half of their next game with the Saints coming off a win this season, resulting in an average total of just 14.5 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 55-33 in the first half with the Fins coming off a win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the first half under (10*). |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada UNDER 56.5 | 52-24 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Nevada at 11 am et on Monday. The 'over' has been the best bet during Bowl season so far but I believe we'll see a different story unfold in Monday's Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit. Nevada will be missing the core of its team for this one with QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs among those sitting the game out to prepare for the upcoming NFL Draft, not to mention half the coaching staff moving on with head coach Jay Norvell. While the Wolf Pack boasted a high-octane offense throughout the regular season, I wouldn't count on seeing that here. Western Michigan had a few standout performances over the course of the season but for the most part, its offense disappointed. Here, the Broncos will need to be cautious as they've had a tendency to turn the football over and Nevada has had a knack for forcing the same with 12 over its final five regular season games. Western Michigan has generally been a run-first team, topping out at 22 or less pass completions in all but one of its games this season (that coming in a stunning 44-41 upset win at Pitt back in September). I think we'll see both teams come out and look to control the time of possession in this one, ultimately working into our favor with a play on the 'under'. Take the under (8*). |
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12-26-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 212 | 103-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Nuggets are just two games removed from their highest-scoring performance of the season but are coming off consecutive subpar showings, putting up only 94 and 107 points in back-to-back losses prior to the Christmas break. Here, I look for them to bounce back against the Paul George-less Clippers. Two of the Clippers six highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last four contests. Paul George is now sidelined indefinitely but the Clips should have Luke Kennard back in the lineup on Sunday. Here, they'll face a Nuggets squad that has consistently been allowing plenty of points, giving up 107 points or more in nine consecutive games. They've given up 115 points or more in three of their last four contests. Take the over (10*). |
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12-26-21 | Bears v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games earlier this week but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. The Bears will likely turn to Nick Foles at quarterback as Justin Fields deals with an ankle injury. Given what we've seen from Fields it's hard to envision much of a downgrade. If anything Foles may be able to do a better job of pushing the football down the field. It's not as if the Bears are bereft of playmakers on offense. RB David Montgomery is in line to go off against a weak Seattle run defense here. The Seahawks got some good news as WR Tyler Lockett sounds like he'll be able to play. Chicago's defense continues to play on without a number of key contributors and doesn't figure to offer much resistance here. Robert Quinn and the Bears pass rush is certainly a concern but I think the Seahawks can stay balanced and find some success regardless, noting that they scored 30 points in their lone home game over their last four contests. Take the over (9*). |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Jaguars home loss to the Texans last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they travel to New York to face the Jets. The Jags offense did show some signs of life or at least some semblance of an identity in last week's loss - the first game of the post-Urban Meyer era. RB James Robinson should be the focal point of the Jags offense moving forward and he figures to go off against the Jets league-worst run defense. New York is favored for a reason here, however, and I would anticipate the Jets offense enjoying some success against a Jags defense that will be missing arguably its best player in DE Josh Allen. Despite gaining only 228 total yards of offense in last week's loss in Miami, the Jets still managed to manufacture 24 points. They'll be taking a considerable step down in class against the Jags here and I expect them to turn Zach Wilson loose (which as we know could lead to points for either team). Take the over (10*). |
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12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns UNDER 228.5 | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 33 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Phoenix at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: There are currently large discrepancies across several books with this total. I would anticipate playing it in the 218-220 range once the numbers settle out. Both of these teams scored exactly 113 points in Thursday's victories. The first two meetings in this series this season totalled just 200 and 214 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 when the Suns face Pacific Division opponents this season with those games totalling an average of only 209.8 points. The 'under' is also 35-16 in the Warriors last 51 road games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are rolling along right now but they're also in a stretch that will see them play a ton of basketball between now and January 8th. Here, they'll be playing their third game in five nights with a big game against the Warriors looming on Christmas Day. From there they'll play three more times before the end of the year before four games in the first eight days of January. Workload management becomes a factor and I think this is a contest where they can post a victory without going full throttle for four quarters - one of the few opportunities they may have to do so in the next couple of weeks. Oklahoma City is in a back-to-back spot off a big win over the Nuggets last night. Note that the Thunder have allowed two of their five lowest point totals of the season over their last two games. The 'under' is 9-5 in their 14 road games this season, largely due to their own awful scoring average of 96.9 points per game. Off three consecutive victories I'm just not sure we're going to see a peak offensive performance from the Thunder as they look ahead to the holiday break (their next game comes on Boxing Day). Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-21 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 214 | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Bucks rout of Houston last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well as they play the second of back-to-backs in Dallas on Thursday. Both teams are missing a number of key contributors - Dallas in particular. However, we're dealing with a considerably lower total than we would normally see in this matchup as a result (that goes without saying, I know). Note that the Bucks have allowed two of their five highest point totals of the season in their last five games alone. They welcomed back Khris Middleton from injury last night and ultimately put up a whopping 126 points. The Mavs have managed to score over 100 points in five straight games despite missing so many pieces. They scored 114 points in a double-digit win over Minnesota two nights ago with a similar lineup to the one we're likely to see on Thursday. Note, however that Dallas has also given up 107, 111 and 102 points over its last three games and doesn't figure to improve on those numbers as it takes a step up in class against the Bucks (Milwaukee has proven it is a top-flight team even without Giannis). Take the over (8*). |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans OVER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. After watching the Titans dismal offensive performance against the Steelers last Sunday this is a bit of a 'plug-your-nose and bet it' type of play on Thursday night but I love the way it sets up. The 49ers offense is set up to go off both on the ground and through the air as Jimmy G. in particular remains an undervalued commodity, even after a string of top flight performances. The question becomes whether the Titans offense can keep up, but I believe they can. Derrick Henry remains sidelined, as does Julio Jones. However, Tennessee got some good news with the return of WR A.J. Brown. He's in line to go off against a very beatable 49ers pass defense here. I'm still a believer in Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, even after last Sunday's ugly performance against the Steelers. The 49ers defense is thought of as a top-level unit but it has been getting regularly torched by opposing wide receivers. Last week's mistake-laden effort in Pittsburgh couldn't have sat well with the Titans. I expect them to come out aggressively as a result here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida UNDER 56 | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Florida and Florida at 7 pm et on Thursday. It seems that all anyone can remember when it comes to Florida - apart from its horrible play under then-head coach Dan Mullen - was the fact that it gave up 52 points against Samford back in November. Since then, the Gators have tightened things up, allowing 24 points against Missouri and 21 against Florida State. Here, they'll face a Central Florida squad that really only busted out offensively against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Temple and UConn - three of the worst defensive teams around. On a positive note, the Knights did hold five of their final six opponents to 17 points or less and I do think they can manage this matchup as well, noting that outside of that 70-point outburst against Samford, Florida was held to 24 points or less in four of its final five games. We're talking about two defenses that held opponents to 59.4% passing (Central Florida) and 57% passing (Florida) this season. Given the fact that both teams have been somewhat vulnerable against the run this season, I expect both offenses to focus on keeping it on the ground for stretches in this one and with a total in the mid-to-high 50's that has me firmly on the 'under'. Take the under (8*). |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas UNDER 55 | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and North Texas at 3:30 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday. Miami-Ohio is coming off a wild 48-47 loss to Kent State (who we saw light it up but also fail to come up with any stops in Tuesday's lopsided loss against Wyoming). In fact, the 'over' has cashed in three of the Redhawks last four games. They threw all over the likes of Ohio, Buffalo and aforementioned Kent State over that stretch. I wouldn't anticipate them doing the same here. Note that North Texas allowed 20+ pass completions on only three occasions this season, against SMU, Missouri and Marshall. Over the Mean Green Eagles' last six games they held the opposition to a combined 97-for-184 (53%) passing. It's not as if teams simply elected to run all over them either, only UTSA (with standout RB Sincere McCormick) managed to gain more than 113 yards on the ground against them over that stretch. On the flip side, North Texas employs a run-first offense. Only twice this season did it complete more than 17 passes and it managed to score a combined 38 points in those two contests against SMU and Liberty where it was forced to play in catch-up mode. Miami-Ohio was respectable defending the run this season, holding opponents that average 4.4 yards per rush to 4.3 ypr. I don't envision the Redhawks getting taken advantage of through the air in this one, noting that they've been accustomed to facing pass-first offenses in the MAC, noting that they've seen 30+ pass attempts in eight straight games heading into this one. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 70-48 the last 118 times Miami-Ohio has come off a loss with those games totalling an average of just 47.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with North Texas coming off five or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 47.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-21 | Rockets v. Bucks OVER 224 | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll take a flyer on the 'over' in this one even with Christian Wood's status still up in the air due to a nagging knee injury. I believe there's a better chance that he plays than doesn't in this, the first of back-to-back games for the Rockets (I would expect the Rockets to play Wood against an undermanned Bucks team rather than on the second of back-to-backs in Indiana tomorrow). Note that the Rockets have allowed three of their five highest point totals of the season over their last five contests. The good news is, they have continued to produce offensively, scoring 103, 116 and 118 points in their last three games. As for the Bucks, they're expected to welcome back Khris Middleton on Wednesday night. You don't get worse offensively by adding a guy like Middleton to the lineup and while the Bucks were awful at that end of the floor last time out (90 points scored against Cleveland) they had put up 114 and 112 points in their previous two games. Note that the Bucks have given up three of their seven highest point totals of the season in their last four games alone. These two teams just met in Houston back on December 10th and combined to score 237 total points. Covid has obviously ravaged the Bucks roster since but I still think we see this one find its way 'over' the total (which has been adjusted downward since that last meeting). Take the over (8*). |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 46.5 | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here, Seattle is going to relish playing the spoiler role down the stretch. The Seahawks could have folded the tent but instead they’re playing well off consecutive wins and I don’t expect them to roll over against the division rival Rams, in a revenge spot no less. On the flip side, the Rams are making up for lost time in a sense as well and should tee off on a very beatable Seahawks defense here - just as they did in the season’s first meeting. The loser gets to 21-24 points in this one and that should cash our ticket with ease. Take the over (8*). |
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12-20-21 | Spurs v. Clippers UNDER 217.5 | 116-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The 'over' has cashed in three straight games involving the Spurs and we were on board for one of those contests on Saturday night in Utah. I look for that trend to reverse on Monday, however, as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a loss in Sacramento on Sunday. The Spurs are still averaging just north of 105 points per game on the road this season. They'll be up against a Clippers squad that will be in a foul mood after losing consecutive games in Utah and Oklahoma City. The Clips have been a different team at home, however, where they've gone 12-7, allowing just 103.7 points per game with the 'under' cashing at a 10-3-1 clip. Note that the most recent meeting between these two teams totalled only 198 points right here in Los Angeles back on November 16th. Take the under (8*). |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With all of the Bears projected absences on defense due to Covid protocols and other various injuries and ailments there's absolutely no excuse for the Vikings not to approach 30 points in this game. The Vikes are still missing WR Adam Thielen but the emergence of K.J. Osborn certainly lessens the blow. This one should be all about RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson anyway. Cook is in a smash spot against a very beatable Bears run defense that as I mentioned is missing a number of key cogs. Jefferson is always a strong candidate to find the end zone and he's likely to avoid Bears standout CB Jaylon Johnson here as he was moved to the Covid list on Sunday. The question becomes whether the Bears can do enough to help this one 'over' the total. I believe they can. Few teams have struggled as badly against opposing wide receivers as the Vikings this season and Bears rookie QB Justin Fields seems to be building a better rapport with his receiving corps with each passing week. WR Darnell Mooney brings the big play potential but it's actually Damiere Byrd and Jakeem Grant that I would keep an eye on in this one. Allen Robinson is likely going to be sidelined after hitting the Covid list but he's never been on the same page as Fields this season anyway, coming off another low-key performance last Sunday in Green Bay. The Vikings have been anything but stout against the run this season opening the door for a possible big game from Bears RB David Montgomery as well. Take the over (10*). |
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12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns OVER 41 | 16-14 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Cleveland at 5 pm et on Monday. Even with all of the uncertainly around Covid-related absences leading up to this game, I believe the potential is there for a relatively high-scoring affair. That's definitely a contrarian take when you consider the Raiders have been held to 16 or less points in five of their last six games. With that being said I like the way this one sets up for a couple of skill players in particular, those being WR Hunter Renfrow and RB Josh Jacobs. Renfrow should feast on an undermanned Browns secondary that has allowed opponents to complete 69% of their passes over their last eight games. Things don't figure to get better in that regard with a number of key cogs in the Cleveland pass defense sidelined for this one. Meanwhile, the Cleveland run defense has been average at best this season and we have seen Jacobs find the end zone in two of the last three games. On the flip side, the Browns QB situation remains clouded with Nick Mullens the most likely candidate to play in this one. I'm not sure it matters all that much as this one should be all about RB Nick Chubb who figures to go off against a weak Raiders run defense that allows 125 rush yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush this season. Vegas' pass defense checks in having allowed a whopping 7.9 yards per pass attempt over its last three games and has been particularly soft against opposing tight ends this season. While the Browns are unlikely to have TE Austin Hooper for this game, that is a position where they do boast considerable depth. Take the over (8*). |
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12-19-21 | Blazers v. Grizzlies OVER 218 | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Portland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Thanks to their last meeting totalling just 216 points in Portland just last week we're dealing with a lower posted total in this quick rematch in Memphis. The last two meetings in this series have now stayed 'under' the total. That's worth noting as we haven't seen three consecutive matchups between these two teams go 'under' since way back in 2015. The Blazers finally snapped their losing streak with a 125-116 win over Charlotte last time out (we won with the 'over' in that game). They've scored at least 103 points in four straight games after being held to 94 points or less in three of their previous four contests. The Grizzlies have now given up 103 points or more in three of their last four games after holding five of their previous six opponents to 95 points or less. They're rolling offensively right now, posting two of their six highest point totals of the season in their last three contests. Take the over (9*). |
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12-19-21 | Bengals v. Broncos UNDER 45 | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Broncos saw their six-game 'under' streak come to an end in last Sunday's 38-10 rout of the Lions. That outcome had everything to do with Detroit's inability to control the game (or the football). I expect a different story to unfold here. I generally like playing Bengals 'overs' in games where they're projected to be playing from behind. I'm not convinced that's the case here. QB Joe Burrow leads what at times looks like one of the most explosive offenses in the league. At others, he's relegated to game-manager and I can see that being the case here against a Broncos defense that has held up well against the pass and the run. On the flip side, the Bengals defense has held six straight opponents to fewer than 300 yards passing and the Broncos don't figure to test that streak here, noting that they've thrown for 250 yards or less in seven consecutive games. Cincinnati has also held four straight opponents to 100 yards rushing or less. Note that on two previous occasions where they scored 28 points or more in a game this season, the Broncos proceeded to score 13 and 9 points the next week. Take the under (9*). |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's hard not to envision the Jaguars offense getting a much-needed boost following the firing of head coach Urban Meyer. This is a smash spot for the Jags offense against a Texans defense that has never been able to find its footing this season and has been absolutely drummed by opposing ground attacks. Jags RB James Robinson was inexplicably in Meyer's doghouse but should be unleashed under interim head coach Darrell Bevell's guidance. If Robinson can get going in this one that should really open things up for Lawrence, who faces the Texans very beatable defense for the second time this season. Let's give credit where credit is due; Texans QB Davis Mills has shown signs of improvement recently and given the way the Jags secondary has struggled to defend opposing wide receivers, there's reason to believe Mills can enjoy another fine day on the statsheet on Sunday. As long as the Texans have a healthy Brandin Cooks they have the ability to move the chains and put points on the board. Let's not forget that the last time these two teams met, way back in Week 1, the Texans scored a season-high 37 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 42.5 | 13-19 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Steelers loss in Minnesota last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Let's face it, the Steelers defense is horrible. Yes, they'll get T.J. Watt and Joe Haden back this week but as far as I'm concerned this unit is broken. While the Titans are still injury-depleted on offense, I'm confident enough in their aggressive play-calling and in QB Ryan Tannehill that they can continue to expose the Steelers shoddy defense here. On the flip side, the Titans defense hasn't been particularly good as a whole this season either. With that being said that unit is coming off a shutout performance last week. That came against the lowly Jaguars, however, in what turned out to be head coach Urban Meyer's swan-song. The Steelers offense has quietly been putting points on the board and should find some success in this desperation spot at home. We're being given a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (9*). |
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12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | 21-36 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Louisiana-Lafayette at 9:15 pm et on Saturday. There always seems to be a tendency for bettors to look to play the 'over' in the New Orleans Bowl with the game being played on the 'fast track' at the Superdome annually. It's worth noting, however, that five of the last New Orleans Bowls have totaled 48 points or less. Here, I'm anticipating another 'under' result. Marshall actually posted two of its three lowest scoring totals of the season in two of its last three games. The Thundering Herd have more of a 'pass-first' offense but could run into trouble here given Louisiana-Lafayette has allowed just two opponents to complete 20+ passes this season and in those two teams they still gave up only 24 and 21 points. The Ragin' Cajuns have more of a 'run-first' mentality and enter this game with a number of key cogs on offense banged up or sidelined altogether due to injury. You would have to go back to October 30th to find the last time they completed more than 19 passes. They did so only three times all season and two of those performances came in the first three weeks of the season. Marshall is by no means a defensive juggernaut but did hold opponents to 54% pass completions and just 6.2 yards per pass attempt over the course of the regular season. Take the under (8*). |
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12-18-21 | Wizards v. Jazz OVER 223 | 109-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup last Saturday night in Washington, despite the Wizards contributing just 98 points. Here, I look for even more of a track meet - just as we saw with our 'over' play between the Spurs and Jazz in Utah last night - a game that totalled 254 points. Note that three of the Wizards six highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last four games. As for the Jazz, they've put up 136, 118, 123, 124 and 126 points in their last four games. This has certainly been a high-scoring series, especially in Utah where we've seen point totals of 246, 248 and 252 points in the last three meetings here. Take the over (9*). |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting a defensive slugfest between these two old AFC rivals on Saturday night but I think we're in for an entertaining, relatively high-scoring affair. As the total continues to drop we'll step in now with a play on the 'over'. All most remember when it comes to the Patriots is that run-dominated 14-10 in windy Buffalo two Mondays ago. However, the Pats enter this game having posted their six highest point totals of the entire season over the last eight games alone. Take away that wind-induced low-scoring performance in Buffalo and you'll see just how consistent New England has been offensively on the road, scoring 25, 25, 27, 24 and 25 points in their five other road contests. As for the Colts, three of their four highest scoring performances of the season have come in their last three games as they've put up 41, 31 and 31 points. They know they're going to need to put some points on the board in order to prevail in this game as their defense simply hasn't held up well against the run (allowing 4.5 yards per rush) and they figure to face an onslaught from the Pats ground attack here. Don't discount Mac Jones in this one though either. He has completed 22 or more passes in nine of 13 games this season. Finally, I'll point out that the Pats haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with four straight 'unders'. Meanwhile, the Colts have yet to post back-to-back 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-21 | Northern Colorado v. Washington State OVER 141 | 56-82 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Northern Colorado and Washington State at 4 pm et on Saturday. The 'over' has now cashed in six straight games involving Northern Colorado while Washington State has seen the 'under' cash in five of its last six contests. I expect the former to prevail on Saturday as the Bears and Cougars do battle in Pullman. Both defenses may be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' in this one as the two offenses live beyond the three-point line where Northern Colorado averages 26 attempts per game (and makes 10 of them on average) and Washington State puts up 25 per contest (making nine on average). Note that Northern Colorado has faced an average of 19 three-point shots per game while Washington State checks in at 20. Both teams have been terrific at getting to the free throw line and knocking their shots down when they do, noting that Washington in particular averages 21 free throws per game, making good on better than 75% of them. Washington State checks in having averaged over 64 field goal attempts per game over its last three and I don't think Northern Colorado will shy away from running with the Cougars here. Note that the Bears have shot better than 44% from the field in six straight games. Despite attempting fewer than 60 shots in each of their last three games they still managed to score 78, 74 and 76 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State OVER 51.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Fresno State at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of uncertainty around Fresno State this week, stemming from QB Jake Haener seemingly transferring from the program but then reversing course and returning to the team in time for Bowl week. I'm not overly concerned. Haener is with the team and likely to at least see some action in this one. Even if he doesn't, the Bulldogs offense is capable of going off against a Miners defense that sagged down the stretch. UTEP comes in on a 1-4 slide, allowing 28, 44, 20, 28 and 42 points over that stretch. The good news for the Miners is they do have an offense capable of putting points on the board with a standout WR duo in Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett who have the ability to blow the top off of any secondary. Note that while the Miners are generally a run-first team, they're likely to be playing from behind for the majority of this game and in that scenario we saw them bomb away down the stretch, attempting 30+ passes in four of their final five regular season games. The 'over' went 4-1 in UTEP's five losses this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-17-21 | Hornets v. Blazers OVER 227 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is the highest total on Friday's NBA board (at the time of writing) and it is that way for a reason in my opinion. The Hornets are getting involved in track meet after track meet right now. Five of their nine highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last seven games. That's come at the expense of their defense, however, as they've also allowed six of their nine highest point totals of the season in their last nine games. Here, they'll be facing a desperate Blazers squad that has lost seven games in a row, despite welcoming Damian Lillard back to the lineup late last week. Since his return, they've scored 111, 107 and 103 points but lost all three games. After shooting a miserable 37.8% from the field in Wednesday's 10-point loss against Memphis, I expect a positive response here. Note that the 'over' is 14-4 the last 18 times the Blazers have come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 233.0 points. The 'over' is also 20-8 the last 28 times they've sought revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, with that spot producing an average total of 233.8 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-17-21 | St. Mary's v. San Diego State UNDER 119 | 53-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Mary's and San Diego State at 10 pm et on Friday. Now that this total has bumped back up a couple of points, we'll step in with a play on the 'under'. Needless to say, both teams have trended to the 'under' so far this season. St. Mary's has allowed just four of 12 opponents to score 60+ points. San Diego State has held four of its last five opponents to 58 points or less. Neither team has been adept from beyond the three-point line with St. Mary's averaging seven made threes per game but only five per game away from home. San Diego State averages just five made three-pointers per contest. While San Diego State does get to the free throw line 20 times per game, they might struggle to approach that average here given St. Mary's has been one of the most disciplined defensive teams in the country, giving up just 13 free throw attempts per contest. When these two teams met last season they combined to score 123 points. That was a 74-49 rout in favor of San Diego State. In what should be a far more competitive affair this time around and I'm anticipating a low-scoring contest. Take the under (8*). |
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12-17-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 225.5 | 128-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. This total continues to climb but I'm still not sure it has been set high enough. The Spurs have allowed two of their highest point totals allowed this season in their last three games. They also check in having scored 123, 112, 112 and 115 points over their last four contests. The Jazz, meanwhile, have posted their six highest point totals of the season over their last eight games. With that being said, they've also given up 105, 107, 130 and 103 points in their last four home games - that's despite being favored by 7.5 points or more in all four games. Take the over (8*). |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Northern Illinois OVER 62.5 | 47-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Northern Illinois at 6 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks between these two teams on Friday. Northern Illinois could be in for a shock to the system here as few opponents have elected to attack them through the air with any consistency this season but Coastal Carolina will with standout QB Grayson McCall looking to show off his talents in front of both NFL scouts and perhaps other schools as well as it sounds like he may be back for a final year of college but is likely to transfer from CCU. When the Huskies did face pass-first offenses this season they gave up 20 points against Eastern Michigan, 26 points against Bowling Green and 38 points against Central Michigan - all three boasting far weaker aerial attacks than the one they'll face on Friday. On the flip side, the Chanticleers are going to face a much different challenge than they're used to here as well, noting that Northern Illinois will pound the football on the ground and has had a ton of success doing so. Coastal Carolina gave up 25 points against Buffalo, 30 points against Appalachian State and 42 points against Georgia State in three previous games where the opposition ran the football 40+ times this season - as NIU is likely to do on Friday. Note that the Huskies enter this game having scored 34, 39, 47, 30, 33, 21 and 41 points in their last seven games. The 21-point performance came in a game against Western Michigan where they played their backups with a spot in the MAC Championship Game already clinched. Take the over (8*). |
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12-16-21 | Dartmouth v. Stanford UNDER 131.5 | 78-89 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dartmouth and Stanford at 10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter this game trending strongly to the 'over' with Dartmouth's last four games going 'over' the total and Stanford's last three doing the same. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Dartmouth has been heavily reliant on the three-ball, knocking down an average of 10 made threes per game this season. It would be reasonable to question where the scoring will come from on Thursday, however, as the Big Green face a Stanford squad that boasts a ton of length on the perimeter and won't give up many easy looks. As a team, Dartmouth has shot just 42.8% from the field against opponents that allow an average of 45.8% shooting this season. On a positive note for Dartmouth, it is sending opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per game and while it has allowed a disappointing nine made threes per contest, Stanford doesn't figure to abuse it on the perimeter, noting that the Cardinal are averaging only six made threes per contest. Stanford has played a very disciplined brand of defense, allowing just 13 free throw attempts per game and here will face a Big Green squad that gets to the line only 10 times per contest. In what doesn't figure to be an ultra-competitive game with a whole lot of late fouling, I'm comfortable calling for this one to stay 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. All three primetime games went 'over' the total last week but I expect a different story to unfold as the division-rival Chiefs and Chargers kick off Week 15 with a good matchup on Thursday night. The Chargers defense has actually had the Chiefs number since the start of last season, allowing only 24, 23 and 21 points in three matchups, winning two of those. While Los Angeles did light up the Kansas City defense for 30 points in the last matchup between these two teams back in September, there's no question the Chiefs 'D' is playing much better now. While Kansas City will be without key pass rusher Chris Jones for this one, the Chargers will be without arguably their best o-lineman in rookie Rashawn Slater. That's not to mention the fact that WR Keenan Allen is coming out of Covid protocols after missing last week's game while RB Austin Ekeler is questionable to play due to an ankle injury. To put it simply, I don't expect Chargers QB Justin Herbert to enjoy the same level of success he did against Kansas City back in September. The Chargers defensive strength has been against the pass this season as they come in having held their last seven opponents to 138-of-235 (59%) passing - awful numbers for opposing QB's by today's NFL standards. Yes, you can beat the Chargers on the ground but the Chiefs by no means possess a dominant ground attack. With so much on the line in this one, I'm confident we'll see points come at a premium. Take the under (10*). |
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12-15-21 | Rangers v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' as the Rangers continue their road trip in Glendale on Wednesday night. This is of course a back-to-back spot for New York after losing by a 4-2 score in Colorado last night (we won with the Avalanche in that game). You have to wonder whether New York will go back to Alex Georgiev in goal as this would be his third game in the last four nights and fourth in the last six. Georgiev has been serviceable this season but certainly not elite, posting an .898 save percentage. Keith Kinkaid was the backup last night while Igor Shesterkin continues to work his way back from injury and likely isn't ready to go just yet. The Coyotes will have Scott Wedgewood in goal. In his last five contests, the Coyotes have given up 3, 4, 5, 3 and 5 goals. Note that the 'Yotes are allowing a whopping 4.6 goals per game on home ice this season. While they average just 2.3 goals per game here in Glendale, they are in a favorable spot here, noting that they average 2.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive home losses over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-21 | Middle Tennessee v. Ole Miss OVER 133.5 | 52-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Middle Tennessee State and Ole Miss at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair between the Blue Raiders and Rebels on Wednesday night. Middle Tennessee State is off to a terrific 8-2 start to the season. It should represent a bit of a shock to the system for the Ole Miss defense, noting that the Blue Raiders hoist up 26 three-point attempts per game and get to the free throw line an impressive 22 times per contest - a stark contrast to the type of teams the Rebels have faced so far this season (they've faced just 19 three-point attempts per game with opponents getting to the charity stripe 18 times per contest). The Rebels will certainly look to come out aggressive on offense after being held to a woeful 48 points in a blowout loss to underdog Western Kentucky on Saturday (we won with the Hilltoppers in that game). Perhaps Saturday's poor offensive performance could be considered an aberration as the Rebels were playing for the first time in a week. Note that they average 78 points per game on just shy of 45% shooting at home this season. In three previous road games, the Blue Raiders have given up nine made three-pointers per game while sending opponents to the free throw line a whopping 25 times per contest. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-21 | Chattanooga v. Belmont UNDER 141 | 68-76 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chattanooga and Belmont at 6 pm et on Wednesday. This has the potential to be one of Wednesday's best games on the college hoops board and I'm confident we'll see it say 'under' the inflated total. Chattanooga hasn't faced the toughest schedule but it has taken care of business nonetheless, going 9-1 so far. The Mocs are doing an excellent job of holding down opposing offenses, limiting them to just 13 free throw attempts and six made three-pointers per game. They've also been able to run their offense more often than not, turning the basketball over just 10 times per contest. That's all while limiting opponents to just north of 38% shooting. Belmont is of course an elite team we'll likely be seeing plenty of come March. The Bruins have limited opponents to just 14 free throw attempts and have been a defensive force at home where they've held the opposition to 40.5% shooting and forced a whopping 19 turnovers per game. The 'under' has cashed in six of Belmont's last seven games overall and I see that trend continuing here. Take the under (8*). |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers OVER 219 | 111-107 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We're seeing quite an adjustment to the total in this matchup considering the first two meetings this season saw closing totals of 230 and 225 points and both found their way 'over' with 239 and 228 points scored. That of course has everything to do with the fact that the Suns are missing Devin Booker while the Blazers are without C.J. McCollum. I'm not sure it matters on Tuesday as I anticipate a high-scoring affair. Phoenix is coming off a loss in L.A. against the Clippers last night, scoring just 95 points in the process. We won with the 'under' in that game but I won't hesitate to go the other way here. Note that the Blazers just gave up 116 points against the T'Wolves here at home on Sunday. Five of their nine highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last nine games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 51-30 with the Blazers seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 232.1 points. Take the over (8*). |
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12-13-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. While the Suns have kept rolling without Devin Booker, they've been getting it done a little differently - or perhaps not as their defense has been outstanding going back to last season, it's just that it has sometimes taken a back seat to their terrific offense. Here, we'll note that the Suns have posted two of their five lowest-scoring outputs of the season over their last five games. The 'under' has cashed in five of their last six contests overall. Only once over their last five games have they given up more than 104 points - that coming in a rematch against the Warriors after defeating them three nights earlier. The Clippers have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games. Two of their nine lowest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last four contests. With Paul George likely to sit once again due to an elbow injury, I'm not sure they'll be interested in getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with the Suns. These two teams are certainly very familiar with one another, noting that this will be the 10th meeting in the series going back to the start of last season with five of the previous nine staying 'under' the total including three of four matchups here in Los Angeles. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rhode Island and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday. We won with Wisconsin-Milwaukee in its most recent game as it stayed inside the double-digit pointspread on the road against Pac-12 squad Colorado. Here, I'll call for another relatively low-scoring affair (that loss to Colorado totalled just 119 points) as the Panthers host Rhode Island on Monday. The Rams have seen the 'under' cash in three consecutive games. Interestingly, the Rams are attempting only 15 three-pointers per game and I don't anticipate shifting course here on Monday. What they have done is do an excellent job of getting to the free throw line, doing so 20 times per game. Here, though, they'll face a Wisconsin-Milwaukee squad that has done a good job of limiting opponents' attempts from the charity stripe, giving up just 15 per game. That's not to mention the fact that the Panthers are allowing opponents to shoot just 39.2% from the field. They haven't guarded the perimeter particularly well, but again they'll be facing a Rams squad that tends to operate lower in the half court. I don't anticipate either team looking to push the pace too much in this one, instead look for both sides to look to run their offense, ultimately eating clock and helping the final score stay 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers OVER 43 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm not anticipating any sort of old-school defensive struggle between these two NFC North rivals on Sunday night in Green Bay. When these two teams met in Chicago earlier this season they combined to score only 38 points. The Bears defense has fallen apart since then, though. They've given up 29 points or more in four of six games since that 24-14 loss to Green Bay. The story is more about who's not on the field than who is when it comes to Chicago's injury-ravaged defense. While the Bears did allow 'only' 33 points against Arizona last Sunday, the damage could have been much worse were it not for the Cards simply easing QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins back into game action after missing extended time due to injury. The Bears have quietly been slinging the football all over the field in recent weeks and should employ a similar gameplan as they'll likely be playing from behind for much of the night on Sunday. Note that they've attempted 34, 39 and 41 passes in their last three contests. You would have to go back to Halloween to find the last time they ran the football 30+ times in a game. The last time these two teams met at Lambeau Field they combined to score 66 points last season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-12-21 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton UNDER 44.5 | 33-25 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Hamilton at 6 pm et on Sunday. We opened our CFL campaign by cashing the 'under' in this same matchup way back in August so it's only fitting that we close out the season with precisely the same play in Sunday's Grey Cup. The Tiger-Cats offense has been consistent but also somewhat limited all season. Even in last Sunday's win over the Argos, the Ti-Cats completed a ridiculous 20-of-22 passes yet still scored 'only' 27 points in a come-from-behind victory. Three games back we saw Hamilton complete a season-high 27 passes yet still only scored 24 points. You get the idea. Here, the Ti-Cats will be up against one of the best CFL defenses we've seen in years in the Blue Bombers. Winnipeg has allowed fewer than 20 points in 11 of 15 games this season. They weren't necessarily at their best last Sunday against a Riders squad that had a real chip on its shoulder, yet still gave up just 17 points in a victory. Like the Ti-Cats, the Bombers have a rather limited offense. They've completed 17 or fewer passes in six of their last seven games. You would have to go back four games to find the last time they scored more than 21 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled only 25 points. While I'm not about to predict that sort of slugfest here, I do think this total will ultimately prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 48 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have been strongly trending to the 'under' lately but that only serves to set us up with value on the 'over' on Sunday as they match up for the first time this season. Dallas didn't have to score a whole lot against an extremely limited Saints offense last week but still managed to put 27 points on the board. With a couple of extra days of rest between games (that game against New Orleans was on Thursday) the Cowboys banged-up weapons on offense, namely Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott have had extra time to get back closer to full strength. I expect them to be all systems go for this favorable matchup on Sunday. Washington hasn't been able to stop or even slow opposing passing games. They've given up 20+ pass completions in six of their last seven games. Here, they'll be without yet another pass rusher in Montez Sweat as he is on the Covid list and being un-vaccinated is unable to play on Sunday. Dak Prescott has the potential to absolutely go off in this one. Washington is coming off consecutive low-scoring affairs. Similar to Dallas' relatively low-scoring performance against the Saints last week, the Football Team hasn't had to score much to secure its last two victories against Seattle and Las Vegas. We should see a different story here, however. Washington WR Terry McLaurin should absolutely wreck Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs, who has been outstanding at intercepting the football but horrible at covering opposing wide receivers. Meanwhile, the Dallas run defense has shown some major cracks in recent weeks, allowing just shy of 5.0 yards per rush over its last three games. Everything should be on the table for QB Taylor Heinecke and the Washington offense in this one. Note that the Football Team scored 25 and 41 points in two meetings against Dallas last season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans OVER 40.5 | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. While I'm not anticipating a track meet between these two teams on Sunday afternoon, I do believe this relatively low posted total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks offense has made some progress with QB Russell Wilson seemingly getting more comfortable as he continues to recover from his finger injury. Last Sunday Wilson took a step in the right direction, throwing for just shy of 300 yards in a win over the 49ers. You can see that the big plays are there, Wilson simply needs to do a better job of putting the football in the right location. He should have little trouble doing so against a Texans defense that has no semblance of a pass rush and has been thrown all over by any opposing offense with a pulse this season. Rookie QB Davis Mills gets his second stint as the Texans starter under center in place of an ineffective Tyrod Taylor. The Texans would be wise to attack the Seahawks defense through the air in this one as Seattle is now without safety Jamal Adams while corner Quandre Diggs is banged up and questionable to play on Sunday as well. You can certainly envision a scenario where the Seahawks defense suffers a letdown here following a two-game stretch that saw it play on Monday Night Football and then at home against the division-rival 49ers. In two previous indoor games this season the Seahawks allowed a combined 46 points and 789 total yards at Indy and Minnesota. The Texans may appear to pose little offensive threat on paper but the Seahawks haven't exactly been a trustworthy squad this season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-11-21 | Jazz v. Wizards OVER 218 | 123-98 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Washington at 7 pm et on Saturday. Keeping in mind the most recent matchup between these two teams last April got well into the 240's and the Jazz are on an incredible scoring tear right now, I believe this total will prove too low on Saturday night in Washington. The Wizards might be catching the Jazz at the right time as Utah is playing its fourth road game in the last seven nights, not to mention being in a three-in-four situation away from home. Washington knows it's going to have to hang a crooked number on the board to prevail in this one as Utah has put up 127, 129, 137, 109, 136 and 118 points over the course of its current six-game winning streak. We won with the 'over' when the Jazz opened their current trip with a 109-108 win in Cleveland last Sunday. We're dealing with a slightly higher posted total this time around, but it won't be high enough. Take the over (9*). |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army UNDER 35.5 | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Army at 3 pm et on Saturday. Much has been made of the long 'under' streak in this series, which quite literally goes back nearly two decades. The oddsmakers have obviously made their adjustments, shifting the total all the way down to the mid-30's for this year's matchup. I'm still not sure it's enough. Note that the last two times we've seen totals posted in the 30's in this rivalry, the final score has reached just 27 (2018) and 15 points (2020). Navy checks in having averaged a woeful 4.3 points in its last six non-conference games. Army, meanwhile, has averaged just 17 points the last 60 times it has come off a bye week, as is the case here. We're certainly not going to see much passing in this contest. Both teams know their strength lies in pounding away with their triple-option based offenses. Note that Navy completed just 25-of-55 (45%) of its passes in games where it attempted more than eight passes this season. In games where Army attempted more than six passes it completed only 25-of-53 (47%) of its passes. While both defenses were exposed by the better passing offenses they faced over the course of the regular season, they both excelled against the run with Navy limiting opponents that average 4.6 yards per rush to just 4.1 ypr and Army holding opponents that average 4.3 ypr to only 3.7 ypr. No reason to re-invent the wheel here. While this total may appear very low, I believe it might actually look pretty steep by the time halftime rolls around on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-11-21 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State UNDER 136.5 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Ohio State at 12 noon et on Saturday. We should be in for an old-fashioned Big 10 slugfest as the Badgers and Buckeyes do battle in early action on Saturday. Wisconsin has gone back to its roots, playing exceptional defensive basketball while limiting its opponents possessions severely. Employing that style should give the Badgers their best shot at staging an upset win over Ohio State on Saturday as well. We did see Wisconsin get involved in a relatively high-scoring affair against Marquette just two games back. It was right back to business last time out, however, in a hard-fought 64-59 win over Indiana. Note that the most recent matchup between these two teams produced 'only' 136 points last January. Ohio State is coming off a high-scoring 85-74 win over Towson. The Buckeyes still check in ranked 255th in the nation in points per game - that's despite sitting top-30 in the country in field goal percentage. By contrast, the Badgers sit north of 300th in both points per game and field goal percentage. Take the under (9*). |
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12-10-21 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 212.5 | 93-109 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This should be a 'defense-optional' type of affair as the Pistons travel to New Orleans to face the Pelicans on Friday night. New Orleans is coming off back-to-back losses. It's worth noting that the Pelicans enter this contest having scored more than 100 points in six consecutive games. The Pistons have been lit up for 110 points or more in five straight games - all losses. They haven't actually tasted victory since November 17th at home against Indiana. Detroit has managed to score over 100 points in three consecutive games and I like its prospects of eclipsing that number with ease again here, noting that New Orleans sits a woeful 29th in the league in terms of defensive rating. Take the over (9*). |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Minnesota at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I don't agree with the move at all as this total has dropped a few points since opening. The Vikings defense is one of the worst in the league in its current form and even with the Steelers boasting a QB that's well past his prime in Ben Roethlisberger and play-calling that leaves a lot to be desired at times, I'm willing to bet on skill players like WR Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson and RB Najee Harris in this matchup. Minnesota has allowed a whopping 94 points over its last three games. Pittsburgh's defense carries a 'brand name' reputation but certainly hasn't performed up to par for much of the campaign, due to injuries and otherwise. The big news here is that the Vikes offense will be without RB Dalvin Cook and WR Adam Thielen - a big reason for the downward shift in the total. That being said, I like the depth the Vikes possess on offense. RB Alexander Mattison is a Dalvin Cook clone while WR K.J. Osborn is capable of picking up some of the slack in Thielen's absence. The Steelers will undoubtedly have their hands full with Vikes WR Justin Jefferson, who should have another monster performance here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-08-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies OVER 215.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs enter this game off a third straight relatively low-scoring affair last night as they fell by a 102-99 score at home against Brooklyn. Noting that the 'over' is 74-50 with the Mavs playing on the road off three or more consecutive 'under' results, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring contest that finds its way 'over' the total on Wednesday in Memphis. The Grizzlies have seen the 'under' cash in their last two games. With that being said, two of their own four highest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last five contests. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-1 with the Grizzlies in a home favorite role this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.9 points. These two teams just met last week with the Grizzlies winning by a 97-90 score in Dallas. The Grizz didn't have to score a whole lot to secure the win on that night as Dallas was without Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic. Both returned to the lineup last night. The last time these two teams met in Memphis they combined to score a whopping 237 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-06-21 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 216 | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Nuggets enter this game riding a seven-game 'over' streak and I look for that trend to continue on Monday. Two of Denver's three highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last two games as they put up 120 points in Miami and 113 in New York. Now it heads to Chicago to face a Bulls squad that has allowed two of its three highest point totals of the season over its last three games. On the flip side of that, two of the Bulls three highest scoring performances of the campaign have also come in their last three games. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season with the first producing 222 points back on November 19th in Denver. The last time they met here in Chicago they combined to score 230 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-06-21 | Mercer v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 139.5 | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mercer and Coastal Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. Mercer enters this game off three consecutive wins, scoring 88, 73 and 83 points in the process but I expect the Bears to have some difficulty scoring against a stout Coastal Carolina zone defense on Monday night. The Chanticleers have held their last two opponents to 41-for-124 shooting and have yet to allow an opponent shoot better than 43.7% from the floor this season. Mercer isn't a team that plays exceptionally fast. For the Bears to stay competitive in this game they'll need to get back defensively in transition and force Coastal Carolina to operate its offense in the halfcourt. The Chanticleers are coming off two of their three highest-scoring performances of the season over their last two games. Those efforts came in a game against South Carolina where the Gamecocks essentially folded the tent in the second half and a contest against Winthrop that saw a closing total north of 150 points. Take the under (8*). |
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12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in Seattle's 17-15 loss in Washington on Monday night - we weren't even close with that one. Seattle has now seen the 'under' cash in five straight games and that's a trend I see continuing here. The Seahawks point totals going back to October 7th are 17, 20, 10, 31, 0, 13 and 15. The one outlier was a 31-point outburst against Jacksonville in a game that still stayed 'under' the total. I have, however, been impressed by the way the Seahawks have defended lately and they're well-positioned to slow an undermanned 49ers offense that will be without its best weapon, WR Deebo Samuel here. The Niners offense is in a classic contrarian fade spot after scoring 30+ points in three straight games. Note that the Seahawks have turned into a bit of a pass funnel defense lately and I think that will work out fine in this matchup. San Francisco wants to run the football - noting that it has 39 or more rush attempts in each of its last three games. Seattle has limited opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush - opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush on the season. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have given up just 3.3 ypr. While the Niners offense has been explosive points-wise, they've completed 17 or fewer passes in six of their last seven games. The Seahawks are always going to remain committed to the run as long as Pete Carroll is the head coach (which may not be for much longer). That doesn't mean they'll find success on the ground, however, noting that they've rushed for fewer than 100 yards in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-21 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 45.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 4 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring overtime game between Saskatchewan and Calgary last week as the Riders advanced to the West Final with a 33-30 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold here as the defensive-minded Blue Bombers look to punch their ticket to a second straight Grey Cup. Riders road games have finished with totals of 42, 55, 40, 37, 33, 36 and 27 points this season. The lone outlier came in a contest against a bad Lions defense. In two previous meetings with the Bombers, the Riders only managed to score a grand total of 17 points. It's not surprising that we've seen the 'under' go 9-4-1 in the Bombers 14 games this season. After all, they completed fewer than 20 passes in all but three of those games while holding each of their final six opponents to 19 pass completions or less. RB Andrew Harris is still banged-up - just as he has been all season - but I would certainly expect him to be a workhorse again in this one, provided he's healthy enough to play. The Riders defense has been more of a 'bend but don't break' unit compared to the Blue Bombers shut-down defense. They do catch the Bombers offense having not played its starters in nearly a month (they had the benefit of rest after locking up the West Division title early). You would have to go back to September 2018 - nine meetings ago - to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 45 points. I'll stick with the trend here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-21 | Jazz v. Cavs OVER 211 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Cleveland at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. With the Jazz coming off their three highest scoring outputs of the season and Cleveland having posted two of its season-high scoring totals of the season in its last three games, I believe this total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. The 'over' has cashed in seven of Utah's last eight games. While its offense has certainly played a big role in that, it's also worth noting that the Jazz defense has struggled as they've allowed over 100 points in seven of those eight contests. Cleveland, meanwhile, has scored 105 points or more in six straight games. Off four consecutive victories and in search of revenge for a pair of blowout losses again Utah last season, I look for a strong performance from the Cavs here. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 26-13 in the Cavs last 39 home games where the total was set between 210 and 219.5 points, with an average total of 220.0 points scored in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals OVER 49 | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Chargers continued their frustrating trend of alternating good and bad performances offensively in an ugly 28-13 loss in Denver last Sunday. As has been the case all season long, I expect them to bounce back offensively in this favorable matchup in Cincinnati on Sunday. After scoring 20 or less points this season, Los Angeles has put up 30, 24 and 41 points in its next game. Here, it faces a Bengals squad in line for a bit of a letdown after holding their last two opponents to a grand total of just 23 points. Keep in mind, in their two previous games they had been torched for 75 points. On the flip side, the Bengals are well-positioned to build off of last week's 41-point explosion against the Steelers as the Chargers check in having allowed 42, 34, 27, 24, 27, 37 and 28 points over their last six contests. Yes, Los Angeles is capable of stopping the pass, but the Bengals are just fine with pounding the football in Joe Mixon, who has quietly led one of the best ground attacks in football, averaging 4.5 yards per rush over their last three games. Unlike the last couple of games where the Bengals have been able to take their foot off the gas and throw the football only 29 and 25 times, I do expect the game script to require Joe Burrow to sling it around a little more here, also favoring the 'over'. Take the over (9*). |
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12-04-21 | Spurs v. Warriors OVER 217 | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. This will mark the first meeting between these two teams this season after all three matchups last season stayed 'under' the total. Keep in mind, the lone matchup last season here in San Francisco totaled 220 points which would be enough to eclipse tonight's total. The Warriors cruised to a blowout win over the Devin Booker-less Suns last night. We won with Golden State in that game. Here, the Warriors host a Spurs squad riding a three-game winning streak and having put up two of its five highest scoring outputs of the season in their last two games. The Spurs know they're not going to win a defensive slugfest here - they need to outgun the Warriors. That's because Golden State averages just shy of 117 points per game at home this season. Since the start of November the Warriors have been extremely consistent in terms of scoring production here at home, posting totals of 114, 126, 120, 127, 123, 119, 119, 116, 118 and 118 points. I don't think the Spurs have the defense to knock them off course here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-03-21 | Holy Cross v. Villanova UNDER 49.5 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
FCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Holy Cross and Villanova at 7 pm et on Friday. This matchup pits two of the best defensive teams in FCS. Holy Cross ran roughshod over the rest of the Patriot League but barely survived its playoff test against Sacred Heart last week, rallying for a 13-10 victory thanks to a touchdown in the closing seconds. The Crusaders struggled to get anything going offensively in that game and they'll be hard-pressed to bounce back in that regard against a championship-caliber defense in Villanova. Note that the Wildcats earned a first-round bye so they'll be taking the field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Friday night - this is a team with true FCS Championship aspirations, entering as the five-seed. What Holy Cross can hang its hat on is its own stout defense. The Crusaders have an outstanding defensive line, camping out in opposing backfields all season to rank fifth in the country in sacks. Both teams would be wise to keep the football on the ground for much of the evening, noting that the two defenses have had a knack for forcing turnovers. Holy Cross ranks tied for second in the country in interceptions while Villanova sits just behind, tied for third. The Wildcats have allowed just 18 offensive touchdowns in 11 games so far this season. In terms of yards per play allowed, these two teams both sit inside the top-four in FCS. You get the picture. Many bettors simply looking for early action on Friday night might look to the 'over' with this total sitting in the 40's. I believe it's the wrong move, however, as this game has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-21 | Fairfield v. Canisius OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Canisius at 7 pm et on Friday. We've made just one play involving either of these teams this season and it was on the 'under' in Fairfield's 83-78 win over Stony Brook last week. In case you were wondering, we weren't close on that play as the final score eclipsed the total by 17 points. I won't make the same mistake again here. Fairfield's offense wasn't good last season but with virtually the entire squad returning there was plenty of potential entering the 2021-22 campaign. So far so good, as the Stags have scored 70+ points in five of six games and check in shooting 47.5% from the field and 37.6% from three-point range. They don't figure to face much resistance against Canisius as the Golden Griffins have allowed the opposition to shoot just shy of 47% from the field and may face a bit of a system shock here as the Stags average seven more three-point attempts than what they've faced so far this season. The fact that Canisius managed to score 75 points despite shooting sub 38% from the field against Cornell last time out is telling. The Griffins are playing at a fast pace, hoisting up a whopping 65 field goal attempts per game including 32 from three-point range. There's reason to believe they can go off offensively in this one against a Fairfield squad that has allowed anyone with a pulse to shoot 50% or better this season. This has the makings of a big game for super sixth-man Malek Green of Canisius. He's still working his way back to 100% health after foot surgery last season. He's averaging 16.6 points per game in just over 24 minutes per game this season and with the Griffins having not played since Sunday should see plenty of action in this one. Key cog Armon Harried shot a miserable 1-for-10 from the field against Cornell but should bounce back here. He's just one game removed from a 22-point effort against Coppin State. Virtually all trends point to an 'under' result here but I'm confident enough that both teams have made enough progression offensively that we could be in for a track meet on Friday night. With both projected to finish in the bottom half of the MAAC standings they can certainly use all the wins they can get - make no mistake, this is an important conference opener for both teams. I expect both to come in with an aggressive mentality, knowing they'll likely need to put up 70+ points to prevail. While the last meeting between these teams totaled only 119 points, it featured just seven made three-pointers. The two teams are combining to average 20 made threes per game this season. Take the over (10*). |