Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-23-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians plated three runs in the first inning of last night's game before their bats went silent the rest of the way in a 6-3 loss. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night as the Yankees send Jordan Montgomery to the hill against Logan Allen. Montgomery hasn't pitched a full season at the big league level since finishing sixth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting in his rookie campaign back in 2017. However, he has put together a pretty solid resume when he has managed to get out there. For his career, Montgomery has been better than the MLB average in terms of opponents batting average, walk percentage, hard-hit ball percentage, opponents' exit velocity off the bat and line drive percentage - many of the key advanced stat categories we like to look at. So far this season he has recorded a terrific 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while also improving on his career strikeout and walk percentages. He should benefit from facing an Indians lineup that just hasn't been able to score with much consistency in the early going. Logan Allen will counter for Cleveland. Since being cast aside by the Padres in 2019, Allen has been serviceable for the Indians. Like Montgomery, he's off to a fine start in 2021, having recorded a 31.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.7 mph exit velocity while doing a tremendous job of inducing ground balls with a 57.1% ground ball percentage. Allen has generally done a good job of keeping the ball in the park and this year has been no different as he's given up just one home run in 12 innings of work. That's obviously a key against the slugging Yankees here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We played the 'under' in this same pitching matchup last week and we weren't close as that game sailed over the total with the Dodgers eventually winning in extra innings. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the scene shifts to Los Angeles on Thursday night. The Padres aren't hitting right now. They had the bases loaded with no one out with a chance to possibly tie or take the lead in the ninth inning against the Brewers yesterday and couldn't even cash in a single run. Here, they'll face one of the best pitchers in baseball in Walker Buehler. Buehler is still working out the early season kinks but his command is there having posted a terrific 1.4% walk percentage through 18 innings of work - a considerable improvement, albeit with a small sample size, over his career average. Buehler is also inducing ground balls at a good clip, having recorded a 42.1% ground ball percentage. Note that the 'under' is 18-5 in Buehler's last 23 night starts here at Dodger Stadium with those games totaling an average of just 6.8 runs. Rookie Ryan Weathers will make his second big league start, with both coming against the Dodgers. He held his own through 3 2/3 shutout innings against them last week, allowing just one hit and striking out three while walking two. Note that the Dodgers are hitting just .195 against left-handed starting pitching in the early going this season. Through 9 2/3 big league innings, Weathers has been largely effective, limiting opponents to a .100 batting average while recording a 45.0% ground ball percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Mets v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night as the Cubs slugged their way to a 16-4 victory. Here, I look for a return to 'normal' as New York sends Joey Lucchesi to the mound against Trevor Williams. Neither starter's numbers will jump off the page but I'm anticipating a reasonably well-pitched game at Wrigley Field on Thursday. Lucchesi was cut loose by the Padres following 2+ very average seasons. We don't have a lot to go on here this season as Lucchesi has made just two appearances, spanning only five innings of work. With that being said, he has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 35.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Keep in mind, Lucchesi had a terrific spring, posting a 2.77 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 13 innings of work. Perhaps a change of scenery will be a positive for the right-hander. Trevor Williams is another starter changing places this season, moving to Chicago after five seasons with the Pirates. His early returns this year have been mixed but I am encouraged by his 54.5% ground ball percentage and miniscule 6.8% fly ball percentage. His walks are up, but so are his strikeouts (slightly). Like Lucchesi, he's also done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 38.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Williams should benefit from facing a Mets club that has scored four runs or less in nine of their last 10 games. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | 76ers v. Bucks OVER 225 | Top | 117-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The most recent meeting between these two teams was a defensive slugfest (by today's NBA standards) that totaled just 214 points and saw both teams shoot right around 40% from the field. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that level of defensive intensity on Thursday, however, as the 76ers head to Milwaukee to play the second of back-to-back nights after a closer-than-expected loss against the Suns. I say closer-than-expected because the Sixers were without the services of both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Joel Embiid did everything he could to will his team to victory, pouring in 38 points and nearly tying the game on a last-second desperation full-court heave. Here, all bets are off as far as who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia. Harris and/or Simmons could be back but I wouldn't be all that surprised if Embiid sat. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. The Bucks are coming off a tough 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns three nights ago. They've now allowed their last two opponents to shoot 54.8% and 48.1% from the field and have seen the 'over' cash in six of their last nine games overall, including each of the last two. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-10 in Bucks home games this season. The 76ers have posted a 14-4 o/u record when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. In fact, they've recorded a 32-19 o/u mark off a loss of any kind over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bucks have seen the 'over' cash at a 20-10 clip after a game in which they score 120 points or more this season, with those contests totaling an average of 236.3 points. We're working with a much lower posted total than we saw in the last meeting between these two teams. That has a lot to do with the injury situation for both teams, with Giannis Antetokounmpo also not a certainty to play on Thursday (he's currently listed as probable). Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I'm anticipating a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This situation sets up well for a high-scoring affair as the Leafs and Jets are both in bounce-back mode on Thursday night. Toronto is coming off stunning back-to-back losses against the Canucks, who were coming off a long layoff due to a Covid outbreak within the team. We do find the Leafs in good position to rebound here, noting that they average 3.8 goals per game after losing five or six of their last seven contests over the last three seasons. They also average an identical 3.8 goals per game when revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing 7.3 total goals on average. The Jets are coming off a 3-0 shutout loss on home ice against Edmonton on Saturday. Perhaps that poor showing was to be expected as they were returning home following a successful five-game road trip on just one day of rest - a situation they had previously struggled in this season. Here, we note that the Jets average 4.0 goals per game following a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Winnipeg has been a terrific bounce-back team this season, averaging 3.9 goals per game off a loss. Also note that the Jets average a whopping 4.7 goals per game the last seven times they've come off a shutout loss. While the 'under' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams in Winnipeg, the 'over' checks in 6-5 in the last 11 matchups in the series. Take the over (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Hurricanes v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Florida at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Hurricanes managed to earn a 1-1 split in a two-game set in Tampa and now make the short trip to face the Panthers in another key two-game series. I'm anticipating plenty of offense in Thursday's contest. Note that the Hurricanes have averaged 3.9 goals per game when playing at least their third consecutive road game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.6 goals. Meanwhile, the Panthers average 3.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less this season and even more impressive, average a whopping 5.4 goals per game when at home revenging consecutive losses against an opponent by two goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that latter situation leading to an average total of 8.3 goals. We also find the Panthers as a strong positive momentum play here, having averaged 3.9 goals per game after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Finally, it's worth noting that four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Florida have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Clippers UNDER 227.5 | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies got off to a blazing start against the Nuggets two nights ago but when Denver decided to play a little defense, Memphis wilted in the fourth quarter, scoring just 21 points and allowing the Nuggets to force overtime in an eventual loss for the Grizz. Here's where Memphis' schedule gets really tough as it plays its fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities and coming off a game played at altitude in Denver. I don't think we'll see all of those shots dropping for the Grizz the way they did two nights ago. Note that the 'under' has gone 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games after allowing 120 points or more in their last game with those contests totaling an average of 219.9 points. Meanwhile, the Clippers are back home after a one-point victory over the Dame-less Blazers last night in Portland. Even with Kawhi Leonard sidelined, they're still an elite defensive team and they're absolutely locked in at that end of the floor right now, having held five straight opponents to 45.8% or worse shooting. Of course, the Clips could be catching the Grizzlies at the right time with both Jonas Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks questionable to play on Wednesday night. Even if they do play, I still expect this one to stay 'under' the total, just as five of the last nine meetings in this series have, including the most recent one - a 119-99 Clippers victory in Memphis back on February 26th. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 227.5 | Top | 112-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets had their six-game 'over' streak snapped in their 113-91 loss in Miami two nights ago, and I look for an 'under' streak to present itself as they return home to host the Jazz on Wednesday night. Utah entered its last game off an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort against the Lakers on Saturday but that shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was essentially a throw-away game with a number of key cogs sitting out due to rest. The Jazz answered back with a stellar defensive performance in the back half of that two-game set against the Lakers, allowing just 97 points on 43.0% shooting in Monday's victory. Save for a few outliers, the Jazz have been incredibly locked in defensively and check in having held seven of their last 10 opponents to 45.1% or worse shooting - a real accomplishment in today's NBA. Meanwhile, the Rockets have quietly held three straight opponents under 49% shooting - an accomplishment in their own right given how this season has gone. Offensively, however, the Rockets are in tough right now, having shot 47.0% or worse from the field in five of their last seven games. They're not getting secondary scoring right now, which is no surprise with guys like Danuel House and Sterling Brown sidelined. John Wall and Christian Wood can only do so much. Note that the Jazz and Rockets both find themselves in the league's bottom-four in terms of floor percentage over their last three games. The Rockets rank last in the league in that category here at home this season. Utah surprisingly checks in 28th in the league in extra scoring chances per game while Houston isn't much better, sitting in 21st. It's also worth noting that Houston and Utah rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in block percentage. I do think the Rockets will be able to run their offense in this game, with Utah ranking 29th in the league in steals per game, but how many good looks they'll be afforded is another matter entirely. Note that the 'under' has gone 25-11 with the Rockets giving up 110 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 225.1 points. The Rockets average just 104.6 points per game when at home revenging a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 218.6 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams totaled just 213 points back on March 12th and each of the last four meetings in Houston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Predators v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game between these two teams last time out as the Preds skated to a 5-2 victory on home ice two nights ago in Nashville. Now the scene shifts to Chicago for the second of three straight meetings between these Central Division foes, noting that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six games between these two here at the United Center. It's been 'feast or famine' for the Preds offense lately as they've scored five goals or more on three occasions over the last two weeks, but outside of that have been held to three goals or less in 10 of their last 13 games overall. Note that the Preds average just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. They've posted a 1-8 o/u record after scoring four goals or more in their last game this season, averaging just 1.7 goals per game with those contests averaging a total of just 4.1 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Preds playing on the road off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.5 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are giving up just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off a loss this season. We're not seeing many true offensive explosions from the Blackhawks this season, noting they haven't scored more than four goals in a game since back on February 28th. They've been held to two goals or less in seven of their last 12 games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as the Brewers send the second of their two-headed top of the rotation monster to the hill in Corbin Burnes against Chris Paddack of the Padres. Burnes finished sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and after a lights out spring, he's been even better through his first three regular season starts, posting a miniscule 0.49 ERA and 0.22 WHIP. The advanced stats are arguably even better for Burnes as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .067 batting average to go along with a 48.4% strikeout percentage and 1.6% home run percentage. He has yet to issue a walk in 18 1/3 innings of work. Needless to say, Burnes has kept opposing hitters off balance, recording a 26.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 56.7% ground ball percentage. It's hard to say how much run support Burnes will receive here, however, as the Brewers are still without two of their best hitters in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. They'll be facing Padres starter Chris Paddack who had a miserable spring but has seemingly turned it around quickly here in the regular season. While Paddack's strikeouts are down and his walks are up, he's yet to allow a home run and has recorded a 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.5% ground ball percentage and an 18.6% fly ball percentage. As I mentioned, the Brewers are undermanned offensively right now so Paddack won't have to be perfect on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Ducks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings will be back on the ice following an extended layoff, noting that the 'over' had cashed in their last six games prior to that. That's not a sustainable streak for a Los Angeles squad that averages just 2.7 goals per game and I expect the tide to finally turn against the Ducks on Tuesday. Note that Anaheim has actually held its own defensively on the road this season, allowing just 2.7 goals per contest. The Ducks enter tonight's game off consecutive home losses against the Golden Knights, allowing nine goals in the process. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 with the Ducks having lost two of their last three games this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. Meanwhile, the Kings check in sporting an 18-37 o/u record when playing at least their third consecutive home game, with those games reaching an average total of just 4.9 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Kings have played at home on three days or more of rest, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 4.4 goals. Finally we'll note that three of the last four meetings between these California rivals in Los Angeles have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 219.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams last met on March 3rd, they combined to score 227 points in a three-point Hawks win in Orlando. The Magic are a completely different team now, however. Note that Orlando got a combined 77 points from the trio of Nik Vucevic, Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross on that night. Vucevic is of course now playing in Chicago while Carter-Williams and Ross will both miss tonight's game due to injuries. Orlando does figure to show a bit of pride and play defense in this one after allowing the Raptors and Rockets to shoot 50% or better from the field in its last two games. The Magic have actually been slightly better defensively on the road this season compared to at home, allowing 111.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks last game - a double-digit victory over the Pacers on Sunday. This game sets up much differently against a much slower-paced and undermanned Magic squad. The Hawks are fairly locked in defensively right now, holding five straight opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They've been an underrated defensive team all season, in fact, particularly here at home, where they've held opponents to 45.5% shooting. With a much tougher game looming against the Knicks in New York tomorrow night, this could certainly be a game where we see Atlanta manage minutes, especially with a a number of key cogs still missing due to injury, including Danilo Gallinari, one of its most underrated offensive threats. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The opener of this series between the Blue Jays and Red Sox features two underrated starting pitchers, albeit in different ways. Hyun-Jin Ryu will take the ball for Toronto. He's a bonafide ace but I'm not sure he gets the respect he deserves as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. The Blue Jays are paying him $20M per season for a reason and he's off to another fine start here in 2021. Remember, Ryu finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 19th in N.L. MVP voting two years ago and then finished third in A.L. Cy Young Award voting and 13th in A.L. MVP voting last season. While we're talking about a very small sample size, Ryu is trending toward a career-best in terms of exit velocity off opposing bats, line drive percentage and ground ball percentage. For his career, Ryu is better than the MLB averages in virtually all of the key advanced stats we like to look at it, considerably so when it comes to many. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. Just two years ago, he finished sixth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. Rodriguez is off to a fine start here in 2021, recording a 30.0% strikeout percentage and 2.5% walk percentage, both considerably better than the MLB average. He has also posted a terrific 29.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.5 mpg exit velocity off opposing bats. The Red Sox exploded for 11 runs in yesterday's win over the White Sox but prior to that had been held to four runs or less in five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have scored five runs or less in five straight games and a grand total of two runs in their last two contests. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Monday. We have an excellent pitching matchup to open this series on Monday night in San Diego with the Brewers handing the ball to their ace Brandon Woodruff against Joe Musgrove of the Padres. We've been singing Woodruff's praises in the early going this season, cashing with the 'under' in his outing against the Cubs in Chicago two starts back and with the Brewers in a blowout win over those same Cubs last week. Woodruff owns sparkling numbers across the board but that's really nothing new as he's done nothing but impress since breaking into the big leagues in 2017. Woodruff held opposing hitters to a collective .204 batting average in 73 2/3 innings of work last season and has limited opponents to an even better .169 batting average this season. While his hard-hit ball percentage has crept up a bit in the early going this season, he's still inducing ground balls at a greater rate than the MLB average while he's also been considerably better than the average in strikeout percentage, walk percentage and home run percentage (in fact, he's yet to allow a single home run this season). Note that the 'under' is 11-1 in Woodruff's last 12 starts under the lights with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 runs. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. He of course is just two starts removed from a no-hitter against the Rangers. While he not surprisingly regressed in his next outing he still owns terrific overall numbers this season. Musgrove has held opposing hitters to a ridiculously low .109 batting average and .154 babip. While we can certainly anticipate some regression in those departments moving forward, he does draw another favorable matchup against a Brewers lineup that is missing key cogs including Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Musgrove recorded a stellar 33.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats last season and he's picked up right where he left off here in 2021, recording a 35.9% hard-hit ball percentage. He's also posted a terrific 57.5% ground ball percentage - well north of the MLB average - building off his success in that department last season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. When we last saw the Angels they were busting out of a two-game slide, scoring 10 runs in a rout of the Twins on Friday night. Covid protocols derailed the rest of that series, however, but they return to the field to host the division-rival Rangers on Monday night. Texas has seen the 'under' cash in its last two games and will send Kohei Arihara to the mound on Monday. He had a fine spring and has held up well through three regular season starts as well, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Arihara isn't going to miss many bats, with a 12.3% strikeout percentage so far but he also won't hand out a lot of free passes, recording a miniscule 1.8% walk percentage in his first 14 2/3 big league innings. Opponents have hit .255 against Arihara but he's allowed just a single home run to date. We're higher on Angels starter Dylan Bundy than most. He quietly got his career back on track with a solid 2020 campaign, his first with the Angels, that saw him finish ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He's picked up right where he left off here in 2021, limiting opposing hitters to a .211 batting average while posting above-average numbers in both strikeout percentage and walk percentage. Bundy has also been better than the MLB average in both hard-hit ball percentage (32.0%), exit velocity off opposing bats (87.0 mph) and line drive percentage (18.0%). Now he faces a Rangers lineup that is hitting just .212 against right-handed starters this season. Note that the 'under' has gone 49-26 with an average total of just 8.2 runs when Texas plays with the total set at 9.0 or 9.5 over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Senators v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Senators and Flames on Monday night after we saw a couple of grind-it-out contests between them in Ottawa back in late March. Those two games totaled just 3 and 4 goals as the Senators swept the two-game set. It's interesting to note that the first of those two contests actually saw a closing total of 6.5 goals. We've already seen the two previous matchups between the Sens and Flames in Calgary produce 10 and 7 goals this season and I expect to see plenty of offense on display on Monday as well. Note that Calgary averages a whopping 4.8 goals per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent in which it was held to one goal or less, as is the case here as I noted above. That situation has produced an average total of 7.4 goals. Meanwhile, the Sens have allowed 4.7 goals per game when coming off a win by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing 7.0 total goals on average. Of course, Ottawa checks in allowing a miserable 4.5 goals per game on the road this season, despite Saturday's shutout win in Montreal. The Flames are back home where they've been considerably better offensively this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game with their contests here totaling an average of 6.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Red Wings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Stars are coming off a rare offensive outburst last time out, recording a second straight win over the reeling Blue Jackets and scoring five goals in the process. While Dallas does average 3.3 goals per game here on home ice it's largely been a case of 'feast or famine'. Here, the Stars offense is set up rather poorly, having averaged just 2.2 goals per game when playing at home off two or more consecutive home wins over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 9-2 in that situation, totaling an average of just 4.4 goals. The Red Wings average just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season and have seen the 'under' go 13-2 when seeking revenge for a loss by three goals or more this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.6 goals as well. Finally, it's worth noting that Dallas averages a miserable 1.8 goals per game when coming off two wins in its last three games this season with that spot resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. The 'under' has cashed in four of the last seven meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | White Sox v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Boston at 11:10 am et on Monday. I can't help but think White Sox starter Lucas Giolito is thinking Cy Young or bust this season after finishing top-seven in award voting in each of the last two seasons. He's off to a tremendous start through three outings this season with his strikeout percentage up and his walk percentage and home run percentage down compared to a still-stellar 2020 campaign. Opponents hit just .184 against him last season and they're batting a paltry .143 against him this season. We've also seen Giolito record a 36.1% hard-hit ball percentage, well south of the MLB average. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 in Giolito's last 20 starts with the moneyline price set between +125 and -125 as is likely to be the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 6.7 runs. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. He's an underrated big league starter in my opinion and is certainly off to a solid start this season. Eovaldi has recorded a very impressive 31.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 63.8% ground ball percentage ranks near the top of the majors. While his walks are up through three starts, that doesn't mean a whole lot when you consider he posted a stellar 3.5% walk percentage in 2020. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:35 pm et on Sunday. The Flyers are coming off a high-scoring game yesterday as they allowed five goals or more for the third time in their last four games in a 6-3 loss to the Capitals. Note that Philadelphia has allowed just 2.3 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons and faces an Islanders squad that has been held to three goals or less in seven straight games. Also note that the Flyers have allowed just 2.2 goals per game when playing at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. The Isles check in off consecutive losses to the Bruins and are set up in an interesting situation here as they've posted an 0-6 o/u mark the last six times they've played on the road off a shutout loss, with those contests averaging just 2.7 total goals. The 'under' is also 6-0 when New York comes off a loss by three goals in its last game this season, with those games producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. Going back further, the 'under' is 14-3 with the Isles playing on the road off a road loss by three goals or more over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 4.5 goals. This series started off high-scoring this season with three of the first four meetings totaling exactly seven goals. Since then, we've seen the 'under' go a perfect 3-0 with all three contests totaling five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a high-scoring affair in the opener of this series on Friday night before things settled down considerably in last night's 1-0 Astros victory (we won with the 'under' in that game). I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday afternoon as the Astros send Jake Odorizzi to the hill against Nick Margevicius. Odorizzi was of course a big offseason acquisition for the Astros as they're paying him $9M to be a big part of their rotation this season. He's off to a slow start but we can anticipate some positive regression to the mean moving forward given some of the gawdy advanced stats he has posted. Odorizzi has recorded a 61.5% hard-hit ball percentage, a 15.4% ground ball percentage and a 38.5% fly ball percentage, all far worse than the MLB average. Note that the Mariners entered last night's game hitting just .243 against right-handed starters and certainly didn't help their cause in that department against Zack Greinke. Nick Margevicius was serviceable for the Mariners last season, his first with the club after starting his career with the Padres. Like Odorizzi, he's off to a bit of a tough start here in 2021 but should benefit from facing a depleted Astros lineup missing the likes of Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez due to Covid protocols. It is encouraging to see that Margevicius' strikeouts are up while his walks are down compared to last year, even if we are talking about a small sample size. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Tigers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The A's have had their way with the Tigers in this series and while that should continue on Sunday afternoon, I believe there's value backing the 'under' as Detroit starter Matt Boyd is deserving of respect in the midst of a strong start to the season. Boyd's offseason work was well-publicized entering the 2021 campaign and so far all of that work has paid dividends as he's been terrific through three starts, posting solid numbers across the board in the majority of the key advanced stat categories we look at. Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Boyd's walks are down while he's recorded a stellar 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.8 mph opponents exit velocity, not to mention a 19.0% fly ball percentage. If you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I've been higher than most on A's starter Chris Bassitt, who is admittedly off to a slow start to the season after finishing top-10 in A.L. Cy Young Award voting a year ago. We did see signs of Bassitt turning things around as we cashed with him against the D'Backs in his last start. His walks and home runs allowed are up while his strikeouts are down but he has held opponents to a .246 batting average and has posted respectable numbers in terms of hard-hit ball, ground ball and fly ball percentages. Against a light-hitting Tigers club that is without veteran Miguel Cabrera, look for further progression from Bassitt today. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Rangers v. Devils UNDER 6 | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and New Jersey at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We've missed with the Devils on the puck-line in the last two games, just falling short yesterday with the Rangers tacking on a couple of last minute empty net goals. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as the scene shifts to Newark for Sunday's fourth consecutive game between these two teams. Note that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Devils playing with double-revenge this season, with those contests totaling just 4.6 goals on average. Better still, the 'under' is 6-0 with the Devils revenging consecutive losses against an opponent in which they allowed three goals or more, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 3.9 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Rangers coming off three straight games scoring three goals or more with that spot totaling an average of only 4.8 goals. The 'under' is 15-7-1 when the Rangers play on the road this season, with their games totaling an average of 5.5 goals. Take the under (9*). |
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04-18-21 | Indians v. Reds UNDER 7.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams settled in extra innings yesterday. There's little reason to expect anything other than another pitcher's duel on Sunday as the Indians look to snap their skid with ace Shane Bieber on the mound while the Reds turn to veteran Wade Miley. Bieber is off to a fine start this season but there's still room for improvement after he won the A.L. Cy Young Award last year and finished fourth in A.L. MVP voting. I say there's room for improvement as Bieber has recorded a 9.5% walk percentage - well north of his career average of 5.3%. Elsewhere across the board, Bieber has been terrific as usual and with the Indians bats yet to wake up this season so he knows he needs to keep the Reds at bay in order to salvage a game in this series. Wade Miley, like Lance Lynn who we talked about earlier this week, seems to have discovered the fountain of youth. He's off to a tremendous start this season, holding opposing hitters to .108 hitting while recording a 25.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 83.3 mpg exit velocity. Miley has always been a ground ball pitcher and he's taken that to a new level in the early going this season, posting a 64.3% ground ball percentage and 7.1% fly ball percentage. While those are gawdy numbers, they're not all that out of the ordinary as Miley has done an excellent job of keeping opposing hitters off balance in the twilight of his career. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 234.5 | Top | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Atlanta at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks didn't give Trae Young any good looks in Thursday's 120-109 Hawks loss here at home and as a result he shot 3-of-17 from the field, ultimately keeping us from cashing our 'over' ticket by a bucket. Here, I look for Young to fare much better as we should be in for a track meet between the Pacers and Hawks. Indiana hoisted up 105 field goal attempts in an eight-point loss in Utah on Friday, shooting a miserable 39% from the field. I'm willing to chalk that poor shooting up to a tough scheduling spot with a rare early weekday game in altitude, no less. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Pacers bounce back, noting that they average 115.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting on the road this season. The 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Hawks have played at home off a double-digit home loss, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 238.3 points. The Hawks have also posted a 12-3 o/u record when revenging a double-digit home loss against an opponent (Indiana defeated Atlanta 121-113 here in February) with that spot averaging a total of 237.4 points. With that Hawks shooting 47.6% or worse in three straight games, they'll be eager to get back on track offensively and should be afforded that opportunity against a Pacers squad playing their third straight game on the road and fourth game in the last six days, in four different cities. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of their series last night in Seattle. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as Zack Greinke squares off against Chris Flexen. Greinke has done an excellent job keeping opposing hitters off balance so far this season, recording a 32.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mpg exit velocity. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks and home runs allowed are up but I certainly expect improvement from the veteran right-hander in those departments moving forward. It's not as if the Mariners have been tearing the cover off the baseball this season, hitting a collective .222 at Safeco Field this season. Chris Flexen has been good but certainly not great through two starts with the Mariners but it is encouraging that he has issued 'only' four walks in 10 innings of work as command, or lack thereof, was a big reason why the Mets were willing to cut him loose. He did a better job of avoiding walks during the spring and that seems to have carried over into the regular season. Of course, Flexen catches a break here with the Astros missing Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez due to Covid protocols. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 228 | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Boston at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in the Warriors win over the Cavs on Thursday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here in Boston on Saturday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 with the Warriors playing their third road game in five days this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 216.3 points. The 'under' has also gone 21-9 with the Warriors playing as a road underdog of six points or less, with those games reaching an average total of just 217.7 points. Note that while the Warriors are known for their offense, they can play some defensive as well. Golden State has held five straight opponents to 48.3% or worse shooting, with the 'under' going 3-2 over that stretch. For Boston's part, it has given up just 106.1 points per game after winning four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an identical average total of just 217.7 points. The Warriors offense is red hot right now with Steph Curry going off on a nightly basis but the Celtics will pose a stiff defensive test. Boston is locked in defensively right now, having held nine straight opponents to 49.4% or worse shooting, including limiting five opponents to 44.9% or worse over that stretch. The C's check in allowing 108.9 points per game on 45.8% shooting at TD Garden this season with the 'under' going 16-11 along the way. Finally, it's worth pointing out that each of the last two meetings between these teams in Boston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Oilers v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
North Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. With the 'over' having cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Winnipeg and the Oilers itching to get back on the ice following an extended layoff, I'm expecting a high-scoring game on Saturday night. Note that Edmonton will be playing for the first time in a week due to Covid-related postponements against the Canucks. The 'over' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Oilers have played on three or more days' rest over the last two seasons with those games averaging a whopping 9.0 total goals. Meanwhile, the Jets check in averaging 3.9 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more this season, as is the case here. When we last saw Edmonton play, it suffered a 5-0 loss at the hands of rival Calgary last Saturday. That actually sets up the Oilers quite well here as they average 3.7 goals per game after allowing five goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. The 'under' has gone 2-0-1 in the last three meetings in this series but all three of those games were played in Edmonton. As I mentioned at the top, this has been a considerably higher-scoring matchup in games played in Winnipeg recently with two meetings here this season totaling 7 and 10 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 11-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers will send their ace (yes he's overtaken Clayton Kershaw in that role in my opinion) Walker Buehler to the mound against the Padres and rookie starter Ryan Weathers on Friday night. Buehler is off to a predictably solid start this season allowing just two earned runs while striking out eight and not walking a single batter in 12 innings of work. The best is yet to come as far as I'm concerned, however. Interestingly, Buehler's strikeout percentage is down considerably through two starts while he has also recorded an inflated 54.1% hard-hit ball percentage. We'll call for some positive regression to the mean here against a Padres club making the long trip back home from Pittsburgh. The Padres are expected to have Fernando Tatis back in the lineup on Friday night and while he will provide an emotional boost, it's not as if he was red hot at the dish prior to getting hurt. As I mentioned, San Diego will hand the ball to rookie Ryan Weathers, who will be making his first big league start. He's held his own at every level previously, and has already got his feet wet at the big league level this season, allowing just one earned run over six innings in relief duty - even recording a pair of saves along the way. While we're dealing with a fairly small sample size, the Dodgers have hit just .233 as a team against left-handed starters this season. Note that the 'under' is 16-6 with the Padres coming off a win by four runs or more, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 7.4 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Golden Knights v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in Vegas' 6-2 win in Los Angeles two nights ago as the Kings long 'over' streak remained intact. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Golden Knights continue their California road trip in Anaheim on Friday night. The Ducks are coming off consecutive four-goal outbursts in victories over the Sharks in San Jose. That sets them up poorly here, however, noting that they've averaged just 1.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 5.1 goals. Of course, that's pretty much par for the course for Anaheim here at home this season, where it averages just 1.9 goals per game. The Golden Knights average 3.1 goals per game on the road but check in averaging just 2.2 goals per game when playing their third game in five days over the last two seasons, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.7 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 14-5 clip. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-9 with the Knights playing on the road following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Ducks have posted an 0-6 o/u mark when at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. I'll also point out that three of the last five meetings here in Anaheim stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Knicks v. Mavs UNDER 211 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met in Manhattan earlier this month they combined to score just 185 points in a double-digit Mavericks victory. I'm not anticipating a whole lot more offense in this one but we've only seen a minor adjustment to the total with the previous matchup seeing a closing total of 212.5. The Knicks actually check in off consecutive 'over' results. Here, we find the 'under' has gone 10-1 when they come off consecutive games in which they scored 110 points or more over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 210.1 total points. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-6 with the Knicks coming off an outright underdog victory (New York won as a 2.5-point underdog in New Orleans last time out) over the last two seasons with that situation producing just 207.3 total points on average. Note that the Knicks are allowing just 102.3 points per game when playing with same-season revenge this season, as is the case here as noted above. For their part, the Mavs have posted a 10-15 o/u record at home this season where they've inexplicably scored fewer points per game compared to on the road. While Luka Doncic's last-second heroics were the story, the Mavs got back in Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies thanks to some tough defensive play, limiting Memphis to 47.2% shooting. Only two of Dallas' last 16 opponents have shot better than 50% from the field and the Knicks don't figure to approach that number as they average just 103.7 points per game on 44.6% shooting on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 18-11 clip. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. J.T. Brubaker and Adrian Houser certainly aren't household names but I do expect them to do their part to keep this one 'under' the total on Friday night in Milwaukee. Brubaker has already been tagged for four home runs in just 15 innings of work this season after allowing only six long balls in 47 1/3 innings a year ago. I would certainly expect to see some positive regression to the mean in that department moving forward, noting that Brubaker is generally a ground ball pitcher with a better than MLB average ground ball percentage over his short career (47.5% compared to 42.8%). Brubaker has recorded an impressive 32.7% hard-hit ball percentage during his brief career and is trending right around that number in two starts this season (32.0%). Also note opposing hitters' exit velocity of just 86.6 mph - again better than the MLB average in that category. Adrian Houser has kept the ball in the park through two starts, allowing just one home run in 10 innings but he's had issues with his command, handing out six walks. After recording 8.0% and 8.5% walk percentages over the last two seasons, respectively, I do expect him to settle down. Like Brubaker, Houser does an excellent job of inducing ground balls with a career 55.7% ground ball percentage which balloons to an impressive 71.4% this season. Neither team has been tearing the cover off the baseball in the early going this season and with the Pirates coming off a high-scoring affair yesterday against San Diego, I believe we're being afforded a very generous total in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers OVER 221 | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams produced 234 points back on March 27th in Los Angeles and I believe the total will prove too low again on Friday night. The 76ers had their five-game 'under' streak snapped in Wednesday's 123-117 win over the undermanned Nets. After a stretch of six consecutive games holding the opposition to 49.4% or worse shooting, the Sixers have now allowed two of their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. Note that they've allowed 110.7 points per game at home this season, with those contests totaling an average of 228.5 points. The Clippers are coming off an ugly 100-98 win in Detroit two nights ago - a clear sandwich spot between a stop in Indiana to open the three-game trip and this contest tonight. Prior to that game, the Clips had seen the 'over' cash in three straight contests. While the Clips may not have the services of Kawhi Leonard again tonight, that has certainly been factored into this total. Note that Los Angeles averages 118.5 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 226.3 points. After shooting an abysmal 39.8% against a bad Pistons squad two nights ago, we can anticipate a strong bounce-back performance from the Clips offense here, noting that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Giants took a chance on former Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani this season, paying him $6M to slide into their rotation. Through his first two starts with his new club, he hasn't disappointed, allowing just one earned run over 11 innings of work. The fact is, DeSclafani had one bad season with the Reds, that coming last year. While we're talking about a small sample size, his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks per nine innings are down considerably compared to last season. Note that for his career, DeSclafani has posted a 6.7% walk percentage, 1.5% lower than the MLB average. Through two outings this season he has recorded a 59.4% ground ball percentage which is certainly encouraging after he was sub-40% in that category a year ago. Daniel Castano will make his first start of the season for the Marlins. He struggled with his command during a brief stint with the big club last year, issuing 11 walks compared to just 12 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings. We did see considerable improvement during Spring Training, however, as Castano posted a 14:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 innings of work. While that certainly doesn't always equate to success during the regular season, I'm willing to take a flyer on him as he faces a Giants club that has hit just .196 against left-handed starting pitching so far this season. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Giants coming off a win this season, with those games totaling an average of just 4.1 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark (badly) with the 'under' in the Warriors rout of the undermanned Thunder last night but I'm willing to go back to the well with the same play here, as I don't expect another peak offensive effort from Golden State in this, the second installment of a five-game road trip. Note that while it has been overshadowed by its recent offensive outbursts, the Warriors are playing some excellent defensive basketball right now, having held their last four opponents to 110 points or less and 48.3% or worse shooting (that qualifies as solid defensive basketball in today's NBA). The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Warriors playing the second of back-to-back nights this season with that situation producing just 211.1 total points on average. The 'under' is also 9-1 after the Warriors win three of their last four games ATS this season with that situation producing 215 total points on average. The Cavs have scored less than 110 points in back-to-back games and have plenty of what I would call 'possession killers' in their lineup right now. They've shot 48.7% or worse from the field in three straight games and are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league this season. With this being the Warriors third game in the last four nights (in three different cities), I'm not anticipating a track meet. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 230 | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. This play obviously goes hand-in-hand with my play on the Hawks plus the points against the Bucks on Thursday night. Milwaukee has settled into a true up-tempo style in the absence of Giannis and that should suit the Hawks just fine on Thursday night as they won't shy away from a track meet. Note that the 'over' has gone 13-4 the last 17 times the Bucks have played on the road following consecutive ATS victories over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 236.6 points. Meanwhile, the Hawks have seen the 'over' cash at a 43-26 clip in their last 69 games as a home underdog with those contests totaling an average of 233.7 points. While Atlanta has major injury concerns, most notably involving superstar Trae Young, I would expect him to be back in the lineup on Friday with two full days off on deck before the Hawks play again on Sunday against Indiana. Even if he doesn't play, the pace alone should afford Atlanta a good opportunity to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard, noting that it averages 116.2 points per game when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss over the last two seasons (Milwaukee took the first meeting between these two teams by a 129-115 score back on January 24th). Finally, note that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last four matchups between these two teams in Atlanta. Take the over (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Blackhawks are coming off consecutive 4-3 wins in Columbus while the Red Wings check in off back-to-back surprising victories in Carolina. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair, noting that the Blackhawks average just 2.4 goals per game on the road this season while Detroit has managed only 2.3 goals per game here at Little Caesar's Arena. It's also worth noting that three of the last four meetings in this series in Detroit have stayed 'under' the total. The Red Wings check in sporting a 2-12 o/u mark when coming off a win this season, with those games averaging a total of just 4.8 goals. The 'under' is also a perfect 6-0 with the Red Wings playing on home ice off a win by two goals or more with that situation producing 4.6 total goals on average. Finally, the 'under' is 8-1 with the Wings revenging a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that spot averaging a total of 4.7 goals. For Chicago's part, it has posted a 2-9 o/u record when playing on the road off a one-goal win away from home over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average of 4.6 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. With the Hurricanes coming off stunning back-to-back losses against the lowly Red Wings I expect to see them tighten things up against the surging Predators on Thursday, noting that Carolina has allowed just 2.2 goals per game on home ice this season. Nashville checks in with the 'under' having gone 8-1 when playing on the road off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those games averaging just 3.6 total goals. For its part, Carolina has posted a 1-10 o/u record when playing at home after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.9 goals per game in that situation with an average total of just 4.4 goals. Also note that the 'under' has cashed in two of the last three meetings between these two teams in Carolina. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen seen superb pitching in this series so far with Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito dueling two nights ago before Carlos Rodon threw his no-hitter last night. We have another fine pitching matchup here on Thursday as Aaron Civale goes for the Indians against veteran Lance Lynn for the White Sox. Civale has quietly put together two outstanding starts to open the season, allowing just five hits and four earned runs over 14 2/3 innings of work. He's always been a solid ground ball pitcher and that has held true this season. The fact that he has limited opposing hitters to a paltry 83.8 mpg exit velocity and a 12.1% line drive percentage is certainly encouraging. Meanwhile, Lance Lynn seems to have discovered the fountain of youth as he only seems to get better with age. While we're still dealing with a very small sample size, his strikeouts are up while his walks are down. Lynn has limited opponents to a 34.3% hard-hit ball percentage and has yet to allow a home run in 13 2/3 innings of work. Note that the 'under' is 15-4 in Lynn's last 19 starts on five or more days' rest, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Red Sox v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen nothing but low-scoring games between these two teams so far this week, although yesterday's double-bill was obviously of the seven-inning variety. Here, I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Red Sox send Garrett Richards to the hill against Michael Pineda of the Twins. Richards has been cut loose by two teams over the last three years so perhaps it's no surprise that he's struggled with the Red Sox as well. Through two starts he has allowed a .323 opponents batting average, a 48.0% hard-hit ball percentage (not to mention a 92.4 mpg exit velocity off the bat) and 32% fly ball percentage. He's been above the MLB average in terms of home run percentage in each of the last three seasons and so far this season he's been tagged for two long balls in just seven innings of work. While the Twins are slumping at the plate right now, Richards might be just what they need to get back on track. Pineda owns a 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through two starts this season but I certainly don't expect him to continue to post those stellar numbers. He has actually been one of the most hittable starters in baseball since a terrific two-year stretch at the start of his career. So far this season he has recorded an ugly 51.6% hard-hit ball percentage and now runs into a hot Red Sox lineup that has contributed to a nine-game winning streak. Take the over (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the front half of this two-game set on Monday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Wednesday. The Golden Knights have been a stout defensive team away from home this season, allowing just 2.3 goals per game with their road contests totaling an average of only 5.2 goals. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Knights coming off a road win by two goals or more this season, as is the case here following Monday's 4-2 victory. That situation has produced only 3.1 total goals on average. For their part, the Kings have seen the 'under' go 29-17 when playing on home ice after losing two of their last three games overall, as is the case here. They've averaged just 2.3 goals per game in that spot and have generally been subpar offensively here at home all season, averaging 2.8 goals per game. On the flip side, we have seen the Kings tighten things up defensively in similar situations, allowing only 2.4 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more this season. It's worth noting that we saw the Knights skate to a 4-2 victory here in Los Angeles back on March 19th before the Kings answered with a low-scoring 3-1 win two nights later. While five of seven meetings this season have gone 'over' the total this season that only serves to give us value with the 'under' here as we're currently being offered a plus-money return (at the time of writing). Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | 147-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've won with the 'under' in each of the Thunder's last two games having anticipated they would play with some pride defensively following a truly awful stretch of basketball at that end of the floor. While that didn't exactly hold true in Saturday's blowout loss against the 76ers, we did see Oklahoma City holds its own in a tough matchup in Utah last night, holding the Jazz to 41.9% shooting in a 10-point loss. The Thunder are having a tough time offensively right now, having been held under 45% shooting in six of their last seven games overall. Lugenz Dort found a cheat code and went off for 42 points in last night's game in Utah but isn't likely to repeat that performance here. Note that the Thunder average just 106.3 points per game on 45.5% shooting at home this season. The Warriors roll into OKC off back-to-back wins. Note that they average just 104.1 points per game after winning two or more games in a row ATS this season with that situation producing just 217.8 total points on average. The 'under' checks in a perfect 9-0 with the Warriors having posted three ATS wins in their last four games this season with that spot producing an average total of only 210.4 points. Of course, the Warriors have been a lower-scoring team in general on the road this season, posting a 9-18 o/u mark. Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. We missed badly with the 'under' in this matchup last night but I like the way it sets up again on Wednesday as the Braves try to put an end to their three-game slide. Nick Neidert will take the ball for Miami. After turning in a fine spring, he labored through 4 1/3 innings in his regular season debut, issuing five walks but giving up just one earned run on three hits. The Braves offense is obviously among the best in baseball when it's hot. While we did see Atlanta do some damage last night, scoring eight runs on 11 hits, that was in a game that got out of hand early on. Tonight, I look for Neidert to keep the Braves bats at bay long enough to help keep this one 'under' the total. Atlanta starter Charlie Morton is off to another fine start having posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through two starts this season. It's easy to tell when Morton is on top of his game as he draws ground balls at a high rate. So far this season he has posted a 48.3% ground ball percentage and a ridiculously low 3.4% fly ball percentage. His 27.6% hard-hit ball percentage is terrific as well, along with his 87 mpg average exit velocity. Morton won't rack up a ton of strikeouts at this stage of his career but he also won't hand out many free passes of yield many easy at-bats. While the Marlins exploded for 14 runs last night they had plated just 13 runs in their previous six games combined. Remember, they scored 12 runs in a win over Tampa Bay back on April 3rd but managed just one run in their next game on that occasion. Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Flames v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 102 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm willing to take a flyer on the fact that the Flames are on a legitimate uptick defensively right now, having allowed just two goals in their last two games after getting torched (no pun intended) for 17 goals in their previous four contests. Note that Calgary checks in averaging just 2.5 goals per game when coming off a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons and averages a miserable 2.2 goals per game on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have seen the 'under' cash in seven straight games when revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.1 goals. For its part, Montreal averages just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons. The last time these two teams met in Montreal the Flames skated to a 2-0 victory on January 30th. The 'under' has gone 3-0-1 in this series this season with the last three meetings totaling four goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Reds v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw the Giants long eight-game 'under' streak come to an end in last night's 7-6 victory over the Reds. Now I look for them to post a second straight 'over' result as they wrap up their series with the Reds on Wednesday afternoon. Tyler Mahle will take the ball for Cincinnati. He got in very limited work during Cincinnati's exhibition schedule in March and didn't fare well. He's held his own through two regular season starts but there is still some reason for concern entering Wednesday's outing. Note that we're dealing with small sample sizes when talking about Mahle's opponents' batting average going back to the start of last season. In 2020, opponents hit just .198 off Mahle while they've hit a poor .129 against him through two starts here in 2021. However, he allowed three home runs in 5 2/3 innings of work during Spring Training and has already posted a 5.4% home run percentage this season. Note that he's been worse than the MLB average in that department over the course of his career (4.0%). Mahle has also posted an ugly 16.2% walk percentage this season - again, a category where he's worse than the MLB average over the course of his 4+ year MLB career. With the Giants showing signs of life at the dish last night I think we'll see some carry-over effect against Mahle today. Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for San Francisco. He's generally been on the decline since a stellar 2016 campaign that saw him make the All-Star Game and finish sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 26th in N.L. MVP voting. While Cueto's ERA and WHIP are stellar through two starts, he has actually recorded a poor 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 33.3% line drive percentage, which in my opinion means he's been a bit lucky to this point. Note that Cueto has yet to give up a home run through two starts after having posted home run percentages of 3.3% or higher in each of the last four seasons (the MLB average is 2.8%). I certainly wouldn't expect his 25.9% strikeout percentage to continue having recorded a high of 20.2% over his last three seasons. Note that we've now seen seven of the last nine meetings in this series go 'over' the total following last night's 13-run outburst. Take the over (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Coyotes v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Minnesota at 2:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Coyotes were on quite a scoring tear prior to hitting a wall in their last two games, scoring just two goals combined in losses against the Golden Knights and Avalanche. This doesn't figure to be a great bounce-back spot as they wrap up a long nine-game road trip that will have taken them to five different cities. Note that the Coyotes have averaged a miserable 1.3 goals per game when playing their eighth game in the last 14 days over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing at an 8-1 clip in that situation and those games totaling just 4.0 goals on average. This doesn't figure to be an ideal breakout spot for the 'Yotes offense as they average just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season and face a Wild squad that allows only 2.1 goals per game on home ice. It's worth noting that Arizona has won just three of its last 30 games when revenging consecutive losses against an opponent by two goals or more, as is the case here, averaging just 1.9 goals per game in the process. It's been an interesting week for the Wild as they had Monday's game against St. Louis postponed due to unrest over a police shooting in the city and now play this rare midweek matinee affair. While Minnesota did score 12 goals in a two-game set against the Avalanche last week, that could be considered an outlier as the Wild have scored three goals or less in 12 of their last 14 games overall. This isn't an ideal spot for the Wild offensively as they've averaged just 2.0 goals per game when returning home off a one-goal road loss over the last three seasons. While the first two meetings in this series this season did find their way 'over' the total, the 'under' has now cashed in the last three and five of the last six matchups between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the under (9*). |
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04-13-21 | Heat v. Suns UNDER 217 | 86-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. This matchup pits two of the league's better defensive teams in my opinion and I believe we might be in for a bit of an old school, playoff-like game on Tuesday night. Keep in mind, the first time these two met this season was back on March 23rd, when the Suns cruised to a 110-100 win in Miami, staying 'under' the posted total. We're actually dealing with a higher total this time around, undoubtedly as a result of the Suns high-scoring ways of late. Phoenix has put up north of 120 points in five of its last seven games overall. Keep in mind, sprinkled in that stretch were two games where Phoenix was held to 102 and 103 points in regulation time against the Jazz and Clippers, respectively (we played the 'under' in both of those games and only failed to go 2-0 due to overtime against Utah). Phoenix has played a lot of basketball here in April with this being its seventh game in 13 nights. I'm not convinced we'll see another peak offensive performance like we saw last night against the lowly Rockets. Miami has allowed more than 110 points just once in its last eight games and checks in allowing just 105 points per game on 44.4% shooting on the road this season. While both meetings between these two teams in Phoenix have gone 'over' the total over the last three seasons, they haven't matched up here in quite some time. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Heat play on the road off consecutive wins this season with those contests totaling just 193.7 points on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 223 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Thunder's most recent game - a 117-93 home loss to the 76ers on Saturday. That 'under' result snapped a somewhat improbable three-game 'over' streak for Oklahoma City. I say improbable as the Thunder have been absolutely decimated by injuries and simply don't have the personnel in place to compete in track meets right now. I feel that this game sets up similarly to Utah's relatively low-scoring blowout win over the Cavaliers here in Salt Lake City back on March 29th. We won with the 'under' on that night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Utah should be in a foul mood tonight after letting one slip away against the Wizards last night. After scoring 42 first quarter points the Jazz might have got caught already checking the game off in the win column as the Wizards rallied and ultimately snapped Utah's long home winning streak. Of course, the Jazz are more than capable of bouncing right back tonight, and I expect it to come on the strength of a strong defensive effort after allowing the Wiz to shoot better than 52% from the field last night. Note that Utah allows just 104 points per game on 43.4% shooting at home this season. The Thunder, meanwhile, have been ripped for 129 points or more in four of their last six games overall but as I noted on Saturday, we should see them at least play with some pride moving forward. They shot 50% from the field in Saturday's loss - the first time they reached that mark since way back on March 14th. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Note that the 'under' has gone 42-22 in Oklahoma City's last 64 games as a road underdog with those contests totaling an average of just 216.8 points. The Thunder have actually been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, allowing 110.9 points per game on 46.3% shooting. Note that the Jazz have allowed just 103.8 points per game this season when playing their third consecutive game at home. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in each of the last four meetings between these two teams in Utah. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Angels plated 10 runs in last night's rout of the Royals, marking the fifth time in their last seven games they've put up seven or more runs. It's worth noting that they average just 4.5 runs per game in their last 18 contests when priced as a short favorite of -150 or less. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. He was in desperate need of a change of scenery after a tough stretch with the Orioles from 2018-2019 in which he went 15-30 with an ERA hovering around five. He bounced back with the Angels in 2020, finishing ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bundy will already be making his third start here in 2021 and he's held his own so far, limiting opposing hitters to a .217 batting average while recording impressive 13.3% line drive and 46.7% ground ball percentages. Danny Duffy will counter for the Royals. Kansas City has never given up on Duffy despite the fact that he's been a very average starter for them since breaking into the bigs back in 2011. They're paying him $15.5 million this season and he's off to a fine start having tossed six shutout innings to earn a victory in his 2021 debut last week. In seven career starts against the Angels, Duffy has posted a respectable 3.95 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with the 'under' going 4-2-1. While the Halos have been piling up plenty of runs this season they've yet to post three consecutive 'over' results. The last time they came off back-to-back 'overs' they were involved in a game that totaled just six runs against the Astros, with Dylan Bundy on the mound for that one as well. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 102 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of last week's stellar pitcher's duel between Kyle Hendricks and Brandon Woodruff at Wrigley Field (we won with the 'under' in that game). Neither pitcher gets enough credit. Hendricks has kept opposing hitters off balance throughout his career, finishing top-10 in N.L. Cy Young Award voting on two different occasions (including ninth last year), not to mention seventh in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting back in 2014. He owns a career hard-hit ball percentage a full five percentage points lower than the MLB average and has recorded a stunning 19.2% in that department through two starts this year. We already know Hendricks is a ground ball pitcher and so far this season he's posted a miniscule 7.7% fly ball rate. Of course, we'll see some regression to the mean but he's been better than the MLB average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories throughout his career. Brandon Woodruff is a star in the making at the top of the Brewers rotation. He's been dominant through two starts this season, picking up right where he left off last year. Like Hendricks, Woodruff is above average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories. He's held opposing hitters to a collective .230 batting average over the course of his 4+ year big league career. The 'under' has gone 5-2 in his seven career starts against the Cubs as he's recorded a 3.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Brewers offense has been imposing lately, resulting in three consecutive 'overs' entering this game. I expect a different story to unfold tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins rallied for a 5-3 extra innings victory to open this series in Atlanta last night, compounding the Braves sluggish start to the season. While we saw signs of life over the weekend, the Braves still aren't hitting with much consistency and I believe that helps set us up well with the 'under' on Tuesday night. Pablo Lopez will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been quietly consistent over the course of his 3+ year big league career, getting marginally better with each passing season. Lopez improved in both strikeouts per nine innings and home runs allowed per nine innings last season, recording a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Through two starts this season, covering a span of 11 2/3 innings, he's been better than the MLB average in most key advanced stat categories. Opposing hitters are batting just .132 against him. Of course, we can anticipate some regression moving forward but we don't need him to be perfect to help keep this one 'under' the total on Tuesday. That's largely due to the fact that I'm anticipating a strong performance from Braves starter Max Fried. Like the rest of his team, Fried is off to a tough start this season, recording a 9.00 ERA and 2.43 WHIP through two starts, spanning just seven innings of work. Keep in mind, Fried finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 18th in N.L. MVP voting last season and had a terrific spring, posting a 1.38 ERA 0.77 WHIP in 13 innings pitched. We can certainly anticipate him turning things around sooner rather than later. Note that the Marlins have scored three runs or less in eight of nine games this season (excluding extra innings). Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Kings are inexplicably coming off four consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as they return home to host the Golden Knights on Monday. We won with the 'under' in Vegas' 1-0 victory over Arizona yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that Vegas has averaged just 1.8 goals per game when coming off a shutout victory over the last two seasons. The Knights haven't been nearly as potent offensively on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 2.9 goals per game in the visitors role with the 'under' cashing at a 10-7-1 clip. Meanwhile, the Kings have seen the 'under' go 19-5 when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those games totaling just 4.4 goals on average. The 'under' is also 31-16 when Los Angeles comes off a game in which it scored four goals or more, as is the case here, with those contests totaling 5.0 goals on average. The last time the Golden Knights were in revenge mode in this series they posted a 4-1 victory back on March 29th, with that game cruising 'under' the total. They're in a similar position here after dropping a 4-2 decision against the Kings on March 31st. Look for another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Bulls v. Grizzlies UNDER 230.5 | Top | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Grizzlies track meet loss against the Pacers last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Memphis was baited into a frenetic pace against Indiana last night and simply couldn't keep up in an eventual 132-125 loss. I expect a different type of game to unfold on Monday as both the Bulls and Grizzlies check in off losses, and in back-to-back spots. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 when the Grizzlies play at home after losing two of their last three games this season with those contests totaling just 213.1 points on average. We've also seen the 'under' go 26-10 the last 36 times Memphis has given up 120 points or more in a game, as is the case here, with those games producing an average total of 220.8 points. For the Bulls, this will be their 10th game in the last 17 nights, in 10 different cities! They still managed to shoot better than 51% from the field in last night's loss in Minnesota but I expect them to have a tough time matching that mark tonight. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 46.6% shooting at home this season and 46.9% or worse shooting in six of their last eight games overall. Off last night's poor defensive effort against the Pacers, I expect them to make a bit of a statement here. For the Bulls, they'll simply be looking to keep within arm's reach as they attempt to steal one at the end of a long road trip. Note that each of the last two meetings in this series in Memphis have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Angels are still licking their wounds following Saturday's 15-1 beatdown at the hands of the Blue Jays (we lost with the 'under' in that game). I expect a much lower-scoring affair on Monday as they head to Kansas City to face the Royals. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. He was in desperate need of a change of scenery after a tough stretch with the Orioles from 2018-2019 in which he went 15-30 with an ERA hovering around five. He bounced back with the Angels in 2020, finishing ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bundy will already be making his third start here in 2021 and he's held his own so far, limiting opposing hitters to a .217 batting average while recording impressive 13.3% line drive and 46.7% ground ball percentages. Here, Bundy will face a Royals club that is coming off an extra innings victory over the White Sox yesterday but has been held to four runs or less in five straight games since exploding out of the gates against a bad Rangers pitching staff to open the season. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He finished eighth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 season. He was roughed up in his 2021 debut against the Rangers but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Note that Singer posted excellent numbers across the board during his rookie campaign. While he was chased early from his first start this season he still managed to record impressive 10% line drive and fly ball percentages, not to mention a 70% ground ball percentage after excelling in those three categories last year as well. While the Angels do possess a potent lineup, I do feel they're in for some regression at the dish and we saw signs of that as they struggled to get to Blue Jays starter Steven Matz on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday. The Nationals have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games overall which is perhaps not all that surprising considering they're coming off a series against the pitching-strong Dodgers over the weekend. There is reason for optimism that we'll see the Nats' lineup break out sooner rather than later though. Victor Robles enters this series riding a three-game hitting streak. Trea Turner was 4-for-8 at the dish over the last two games. Juan Soto is Juan Soto and was 4-for-8 including two home runs in the first two games against the Dodgers prior to yesterday's 0-for-4 day. Ryan Zimmerman was also 4-for-8 in the first two against L.A. before running into Clayton Kershaw yesterday. You get the picture. There is concern for the Nats' here though as starter Erick Fedde has yet to really figure things out at the big league level. Since breaking into the majors back in 2017, opposing hitters have batted a collective .283 against him. That's not to mention his career 43.6% hard-hit ball percentage - well north of the MLB average. In his 2021 debut last week opposing hitters posted a 91.9 mph exit velocity, certainly a concern as he prepares to face a dangerous Cardinals lineup that will be in a foul mood off consecutive losses against the Brewers over the weekend. John Gant will counter for St. Louis. He has got in limited work over the last couple of seasons. He was good but not great in his season debut against a light-hitting Marlins club. Note that Gant has posted worse than MLB average hard-hit ball and line drive percentages over the course of his career. He's always had issues with his command, with a career 11.6% walk percentage and while the Nats' have been struggling at bit at the plate, they're more than capable of punishing Gant for his mistakes tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Pacers v. Grizzlies UNDER 233 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. Indiana took the first meeting between these two teams in a wild 134-116 affair back on February 2nd. I'm expecting this rematch to be much lower-scoring than that, however, noting that the Grizzlies have allowed just 108 points per game when at home revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 217.5 points. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Grizzlies play at home after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS this season with those games totaling an average of just 210.3 points. The 'under' is also 15-3 when the Grizzlies come off a very high-scoring game totaling 245 points or more, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, with those contests producing an average of just 218.8 points. For their part, the Pacers have posted a 1-8 o/u record after attempting 90 shots or more in consecutive games this season and they've played to an average total of 225.4 points after consecutive games where 215 points or more were scored this season. It's interesting to note that the Grizzlies have actually been a lower-scoring team at home than on the road this season, recording a 9-17 o/u mark here in Memphis with those games totaling an average of 220.8 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 103 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We're going to go the contrarian route with this one given the 'over' has cashed in four of five meetings between these two teams this season, including a wild, high-scoring 7-4 Knights victory in the front half of this two-game set on Friday night. The Coyotes have now seen the 'over' cash in each of their last three games as they've uncharacteristically scored 12 goals while giving up 13 over that stretch. Note that Arizona has allowed just 2.0 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in a game this season. The Coyotes have averaged 3.8 goals per game themselves in that spot but I wouldn't count on that level of offensive production against a Knights squad that allows just 2.4 goals per game on home ice this season and prior to Friday's contest had given up three goals or less in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Coyotes playing on the road off consecutive games where at least seven goals were scored, as is the case here, with those contests totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Indians bats woke up and delivered an 11-run performance in last night's blowout win. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance on Sunday, however. Keep in mind, prior to last night's game, the Indians had scored just eight runs combined over their last three games. Tigers starter Jose Urena didn't fare well in his season debut last week as he got lit up by the Twins at Comerica Park. There's a reason the Marlins stuck it out for six seasons with Urena and why the Tigers are paying him north of $3 million dollars here in 2021. This is a matchup he can handle against a very average Indians lineup. Logan Allen was effective over five innings in his first outing of the season for the Indians. He'll be facing a Tigers club that boasts one of the weakest offenses in baseball, having topped out at six runs this season, scoring four runs or less in six of eight contests to date. Both bullpens should have virtually all hands on deck after last night's lopsided game. Take the under (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 1-7 | Win | 103 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Pirates smashed the Cubs last night but I'm anticipating a more tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon at PNC Park. Trevor Williams will face his former team for the Cubs. He was sharp in his debut with the Cubbies, allowing just two earned runs over six innings against a good Brewers offense. He's certainly comfortable pitching here at PNC Park and faces a Pirates offense that ranks as one of the league's worst, even after last night's breakout performance. JT Brubaker will counter for Pittsburgh. He labored a bit through his first start but still gave up just one earned run through four innings of work. Like the Pirates, the Cubs offense has sputtered out of the gates and in this rubber match on Sunday afternoon, I suspect runs will be difficult to come by once again. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Kings v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night even though the scoring did settle down over the game's final two periods. Still, the 'under' has cashed in five of the last seven meetings here in San Jose. Note that the Kings have allowed just 2.1 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons. While they've averaged 3.3 goals per game themselves in that situation, they just haven't scored with any consistency on the road this season, averaging just 2.6 goals per game while the Sharks have given up two goals or less in four of their last five contests overall. For San Jose's part, the 'under' has gone 25-15 when it comes off a game where seven goals or more were scored over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Look for a return to 'normal' in this series on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I think there's a bit of an overreaction in the betting marketplace to the Blue Jays playing their home games in hitter-friendly Dunedin this season with the totals being set at 10 or higher in all three games in this series so far. The Blue Jays still aren't hitting so if they're going to snap their four-game skid on Saturday night, they're likely going to need to get some solid pitching from their staff, led by newly-acquired Steven Matz. Matz pitched well in his season debut, picking up where he left off after a solid spring. Note that the 'under' has gone 36-17 when Matz takes the ball off a team loss over the course of his career with those games producing an average total of 7.7 runs. I would expect some regression from the Angels offense here after it scored 14 runs in the first two games of this series. Veteran starter Jose Quintana takes the ball for Los Angeles, noting that the 'under' has gone 75-44 when he starts following a team win over the course of his career with those contests totaling an average of just 8.1 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | 76ers v. Thunder UNDER 218.5 | 117-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The 'over' has somewhat inexplicably cashed in each of the Thunder's last three games despite the fact that they've scored just 108, 102 and 102 points with a number of key cogs out of the lineup due to injuries. They are expected to get some help with the expected return of Al Horford tonight although I think that supports them more at the defensive end of the floor than offensively. The 76ers are coming off an ugly 101-94 loss in New Orleans last night. They've now shot 46.6% or worse in five of their last six games overall with the 'under' going 5-1 over that stretch. They could be without Joel Embiid tonight, which obviously doesn't help matters. Note that the 'under' has gone 29-16 after the Thunder are involved in a game totaling 225 points or more over the last two seasons. The 'under' is also 18-8 after Oklahoma City is involved in three straight games totaling 215 points or more over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Wild v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 103 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night with the Blues doing virtually all of the damage in a 9-1 victory. I would count on a repeat performance in tonight's rematch, noting that the Wild have allowed just 2.1 goals per game on average the last 28 times they've come off a loss by five goals or more. The 'under' has gone 13-3 with the Wild coming off consecutive games where seven total goals or more were scored over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.7 goals on average. The Blues scoring explosion last night could be considered an anomaly as they average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'under' has cashed in six of the last nine meetings in this series, including a 2-0 Wild victory in the lone previous meeting this season (prior to last night). Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Senators v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 5-6 | Win | 108 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. This game has true high-scoring potential as the Senators head to Toronto to face the rival Maple Leafs on Saturday. We actually won with the 'under' in the Sens last game - a 3-2 loss to the Oilers on Thursday. Here, Ottawa is in a tough spot as it hits the road, where it has allowed a ridiculous 4.6 goals per game this season. Worse still, the Sens give up 5.2 goals per game when on the road revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 8.2 goals. There's reason to be confident in the Sens offense here though as well as Toronto has given up 3.8 goals per game when playing at home off a one-goal victory over a division opponent over the last three seasons, with those games producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Five of the last seven meetings between these two Ontario rivals in Toronto have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Bruins v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Philadelphia at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the Bruins last game - a 4-2 victory in Washington on Thursday. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Boston faces Philadelphia for the third time in the last week. Note that the Flyers are coming off a 3-2 shootout loss against the Islanders on Thursday and have now been held to three goals or less in 10 of their last 11 games overall. On a positive note, we have seen Philadelphia's leaky defense and goaltending show some signs of improvement, allowing just 10 goals in regulation time over its last four games. Note that the 'under' is 24-10 when the Bruins come off consecutive 'over' result over the last three seasons with those contests totaling 5.3 goals on average. Better still, the 'under' is 23-12 when the Bruins play on the road off a division win over the last two seasons with those games reaching just 5.0 total goals. This has generally been a high-scoring series but I'll go the contrarian route here in this matinee affair on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 9 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a slugfest between these two teams in yesterday's series-opener as the Rays fell behind early but rallied for a convincing 10-5 victory. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair in this quick turnaround spot on Saturday afternoon as both teams send starting pitchers with a lot to prove to the mound in Domingo German for the Yankees and Chris Archer for the Rays. German lasted just three innings in his regular season debut against Toronto last week - his first big league start since 2019. We should see him get stretched out a little more here and while the Rays offense looks pretty imposing after yesterday's 10-run outburst, they've actually been quite inconsistent so far this season, scoring two runs or less in three of their first seven contests. Chris Archer was once considered an ace but injuries have taken their toll and he's back at it for the first time since 2019 as well here in 2021. Archer did pitch two innings in relief against the Marlins last week, and got hit hard. I would anticipate a solid bounce-back effort here on Saturday, however, as he makes his first big league start since August of 2019. The Yankees have topped out at seven runs this season and have been held to five runs or less in five of their first seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in the Coyotes most recent game - a 4-3 loss to the Kings on Wednesday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as I expect to see things to return to 'normal' after an extended stretch of Arizona 'over' results. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 with the Coyotes on the road after consecutive games that totaled seven goals or more over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.3 goals. While the 'Yotes have scored 18 goals over the first five games of this long road trip, they still average just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Vegas checks in off a 3-1 loss against the slumping Blues in St. Louis two nights ago. Note that the Golden Knights have allowed just 1.7 goals per game when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons. Of course, they've been terrific defensively at home this season, giving up just 2.3 goals per game. Conversely, the Knights have scored more than two goals just once in their last five contests. The 'under' has cashed in five of their last seven games overall. We've also seen the 'under' go 9-7 in the last 16 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks UNDER 214.5 | 129-133 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and New York at 7:40 pm et on Friday. This is a fairly low posted total by today's NBA standards but I feel it's warranted. The Grizzlies are coming off consecutive 'over' results, scoring a whopping 124 and 131 points in the process. They'll face a tough test here though, noting that the Knicks have allowed just 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. The 'under' has gone 14-10 in Knicks home games this season. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 when New York comes off a road loss by three points or less over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 194.4 points. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 18-8 clip after the Knicks have lost four of their last five games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 207.6 points. This is the tail-end of a four-game road trip for the Grizzlies and it will be their fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities no less. After shooting 54.8% and 53.9% in their last two games I would certainly anticipate some regression from the Memphis offense here. On the flip side, the Grizz have been locked in defensively, holding five of their last six opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. This is a rematch of a Phillies 4-0 victory last weekend and I'm anticipating another low-scoring contest on Friday night in Atlanta. Zack Wheeler will once again take the ball for the Phillies. He finished 12th in N.L. Cy Young award voting last season and picked up right where he left off in his first start of 2021. Wheeler allowed just one hit over seven shutout innings against the Braves last week, striking out 10 along the way. He is above average in nearly all of the key advanced pitching stat categories, most notably allowing a 2.2% home run percentage and a 34% hard-hit ball percentage over the course of his career, both considerably better than the MLB averages. The same goes for Braves starter Charlie Morton. That's even more impressive when you consider how poorly he performed early in his career. Morton owns a career 35.5% hard-hit ball percentage, a 52.7% ground ball percentage and a staggering 18.9% fly ball percentage. He has recorded a strikeout percentage of at least 24.7% in each of the last five seasons, much higher than the MLB average of 20.2%. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 the last 20 times the Phillies come off three or more consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 7.5 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 | 1-3 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Friday. The Rockies are coming off consecutive wins to grab a series win over the D'Backs at Coors Field. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair as they head to San Francisco to face the Giants. Austin Gomber will take the ball for the Rockies. He got in limited work with the Cardinals last season, pitching just 29 innings but faring well, limiting opposing hitters to a .190 batting average while recording an impressive 0.8% home run percentage and a 17.3% fly ball percentage, both considerably better than average when compared to the rest of MLB - but again, we're talking about a very small sample size. After issuing a whopping seven walks over just three innings in his regular season debut with Colorado last week, there is reason for concern here. Note that he also recorded a scary 57.1% fly ball percentage in his 2021 debut. Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for San Francisco. While he allowed just three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in his season debut there was some reason for concern as he posted a 50% hard-hit ball percentage, also giving up six hits and three walks along the way. Note that Cueto is on the decline, having posted his two highest base-on-ball percentages of his entire career over the last two seasons while also seeing his home run percentage creep up considerably over that same stretch. He also posted a 42.9% line drive percentage in his first start this year, so opposing hitters were certainly making good contact. The 'over' has gone 30-13 when Cueto takes the hill at home with the total set at 8.0 or 8.5, with those games averaging 9.6 total runs. Interestingly, we've also seen the 'over' go 13-3 when the Giants come off a five-game stretch in which they batted .200 or worse as a team over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those contests totaling 10.4 runs on average. Take the over (10*). |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 223 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Suns win over the Jazz last night, which was truly a bad beat as only 204 points were scored in regulation time. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Phoenix plays in a back-to-back spot against the Clippers in Los Angeles. After shooting better than 51% from the field in four straight games, the Suns shot just 44.6% last night and I would expect some continued regression against a good Clippers defense that allows just 108.4 points per game on 46.1% shooting at home this season. The Clips, like last night's opponent the Jazz, are locked in defensively right now having limited three of their last four opponents to 41.3% or worse shooting. For its part, Phoenix has allowed just one of its last 13 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. The Suns have been every bit as good defensively on the road as at home, giving up 107.7 ppg on 45.9% shooting. Note that the 'under' is 29-15 when the Suns play on the road following an 'over' result over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-08-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Capitals are back home after dropping three of five games on the road and are coming off a 1-0 setback against the Islanders two nights ago. Here, they're set up well for a high-scoring result, noting that they average 4.3 goals per game when returning home off at least four straight games on the road, with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 7-0 clip in that situation over the last three seasons. Those contests totaled an average of 7.9 goals. The Bruins have scored at least four goals in three of their last five games and face a Caps squad that has allowed 3.6 goals per game when revenging a loss against an opponent as a road favorite over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The 'over' has gone 18-6 in that situation with an average total goals scored of 7.1. Three of the last five meetings between these two teams here in Washington have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (9*). |
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04-08-21 | Oilers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw six total goals scored between these two teams last night with the Oilers scoring a couple of goals late including an empty-netter with just 1.5 seconds remaining in the third period. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair, noting that the 'under' has gone 8-1 this season when the Oilers play at home after losing four or five of their last six games, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 20-10 when the Senators play at home after giving up three goals or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. That situation has produced an average total of 5.5 goals. Meanwhile, the Oilers average just 2.3 goals per game coming off a road win over a division opponent over the last three seasons. Edmonton checks in having allowed just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Take the under (9*). |
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04-08-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 4:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Brewers 4-2 extra innings victory over the Cubs yesterday afternoon and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday. The Brewers will send another of their promising young arms to the mound for the opener of this series. Corbin Burnes quietly finished sixth in N.L. Cy Young award voting last season and turned in an exceptional spring prior to dominating a solid Twins lineup in his season debut last week. Burnes checks in above average in virtually all of the key advanced pitching stat categories and as I said, he was positively dominant in his first start of the season, not allowing a single line drive and recording an exceptional 66.7% ground ball percentage. Veteran Adam Wainwright will counter for St. Louis. He might be catching the Brewers at the right time as they're by no means tearing the cover off the ball right now. Were it not for two long balls from Lorenzo Cain yesterday they might have been held off the scoreboard entirely against Chicago. Wainwright is coming off a 2020 campaign in which he improved on his hits allowed per nine innings and walks per nine innings considerably. While he was ripped for six earned runs and didn't last three innings against the red hot Reds bats in his season debut, he actually posted a respectable 35.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 57.1% ground ball percentage. He's been here before starting the Cardinals home opener and I expect him to pitch well enough to help keep this one 'under' the total. Note that the 'under' is 28-11 in Wainwright's 39 career home starts when priced between +125 and -125, as is the case here at the time of writing, with those games totaling just 6.9 total runs on average. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Brewers last three contests. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The lone previous matchup between these two teams this season took place back on New Year's Eve, with the Suns posting a relatively low-scoring 106-95 win in Utah. We're dealing with a higher posted total this time around (the closing total on December 31st was 219) but I'm not sure it's warranted. Yes, Phoenix is on fire (no pun intended) offensively right now, having scored 140 and 133 points in its last two games. Those offensive outbursts weren't overly surprising, however, as they came at the expense of the injury-riddled Thunder and lowly Rockets. Concerning was the fact that they allowed Houston and its generally-inept offense to shoot better than 54% from the field last time out. Phoenix is obviously a better defensive team than that and should rise to the occasion in this showdown with the first-place Jazz, noting that the Suns allow just 107.7 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home this season and had held 11 straight opponents to below 50% shooting prior to that game against the Rockets. I mentioned the Suns offense - they've shot better than 51% from the field in four straight games heading into tonight's contest - their longest streak of that sort this season. They'll be hard-pressed to keep it going here against a Jazz defense that has been locked in lately, holding 10 consecutive opponents to 48.3% or worse shooting. Utah allows 111.2 ppg on 46.2% shooting on the road this season. Note that the Suns have allowed just 104.6 ppg following an ATS loss this season, with those games totaling an average of 219.8 points. Meanwhile, the Jazz have posted a 119-143 o/u record following an ATS loss under the guidance of head coach Quin Snyder, with those contests totaling an average of 204.7 points (that trend does back a little further than I would like but is still worth noting). Finally, the 'under' has cashed in each of the last three meetings between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Coyotes v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Coyotes skated to a 5-2 victory in the front half of this two-game set in Los Angeles on Monday night. I look for things to return to 'normal' on Wednesday, however, in terms of offensive production. Note that Arizona averages just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Here, it faces a Kings squad that has allowed just 1.7 goals per game when coming off three consecutive losses on home ice over the last three seasons. Also note that the Coyotes average just 2.2 goals per game when playing on the road off a road win over the last three seasons, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-7 clip with an average total of just 5.0 goals in that situation. This hasn't been a particularly high-scoring series with the 'under' cashing in four of the last five meetings here at Staples Center. Take the under (9*). |
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04-07-21 | Avalanche v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams on Monday night as the Avalanche stayed hot with a 5-4 victory. The 'over' has now cashed in four straight meetings in this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Note that the 'under' has still cashed in four of the last seven meetings here in Minnesota. The Avs have posted a 4-12 o/u record when playing on the road off a one-goal road win over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-6 with the Wild playing at home following an 'over' result over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.9 goals on average. I'll also point out that the 'under' has gone 8-1 with the Wild playing with triple-revenge on home ice over the last three seasons, with those games reaching an average total of only 3.9 goals. The 'under' has cashed in 10 of Minnesota's 17 home games this season with the Wild allowing only 2.1 goals per game. This is certainly a tough challenge based on how well the Avs have been playing, but I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Leafs are coming off a relatively high-scoring two-game set in Calgary on Sunday and Monday, with 14 total goals scored in those two contests. I look for the scoring to settle down on Wednesday, however, as they return home to host the rival Canadiens. Note that Toronto has now allowed three goals or less in eight straight games. The 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Leafs coming off a win by two goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. Toronto has been solid defensively at home this season, giving up just 2.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have posted a 3-12 o/u record when revenging a loss against an opponent in which they gave up five goals or more over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. Montreal isn't set up particularly well offensively here, even as it has scored 3.3 goals on the road this season, noting that it averages just 2.5 goals per game after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons. Take the under (9*). |
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04-07-21 | Oilers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. Note the early start time for this Wednesday matchup. The Senators are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs, splitting games in Montreal and Winnipeg. We've seen a considerable home-road dichotomy when it comes to the Sens this season as they've posted a 7-12 o/u record here on home ice, with those games totaling just 5.6 goals on average. While Ottawa is thought of as one of the league's worst defensive teams, it has actually held its own here in Kanata, allowing just 2.8 goals per game. The Sens do of course have their issues between the pipes, with Marcus Hogberg potentially returning on Wednesday, following a conditioning stint. Keep in mind, the Oilers high-octane offense hasn't exactly been lighting it up lately, failing to score more than three goals in a game since potting four at home against the Jets back on March 20th. The 'under' has gone 10-7-1 in Edmonton road games this season and it has certainly held its own defensively in those games, giving up just 2.7 goals per contest. Note that the Sens have posted a 1-9 o/u mark when playing at home after losing two of their last three games, as is the case here today. The 'over' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series but both of those games were played in Edmonton. In their last two matchups here in Ottawa, the 'under' has cashed on both occasions. Take the under (9*). |
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04-07-21 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. Both of today's starters are coming off uncharacteristically poor season debuts last week but I'm confident we'll see both get on track here today at Wrigley Field. Brandon Woodruff lasted only four innings in his first start against the Twins, struggling with his command throughout. Keep in mind, he's gotten better with each passing season and last year posted a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Through his four-year big league career he's been above average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories and I'm confident he'll bounce back against a Cubs lineup that has yet to really get going this season. Kyle Hendricks finished ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season, recording a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Even though he lasted only three innings in his 2021 debut, it's not as if he was hit hard. In that outing he posted a 22.2% hard-hit ball percentage, an 11.1% line drive percentage and an impressive 77.8% ground ball percentage. Like the Cubs, the Brewers are still struggling to score runs with consistency this season. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 in Woodruff's last seven starts against opponents that own winning record, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 runs. The 'under' is also 16-5 in the Brewers last 21 road games against right-handed starters, with those contests totaling just 6.9 runs on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-06-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the opener of this short two-game set in Oakland last night as the Dodgers offense jumped ahead early and tacked on more offense late to push the game 'over' the total. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Tuesday, however, as the A's look to earn some quick 'revenge' while Dodgers former ace (and now number-two guy behind Walker Buehler) Clayton Kershaw tries to bounce-back from a brutal Opening Day start in Colorado. Kershaw certainly wasn't at his best against the Rockies last time out, missing very few bats over the course of 5 2/3 laborous innings. Kershaw has been here before, though, with doubters coming out of the woodwork in droves. I'm confident we'll see him respond with a strong performance tonight - it helps that he's facing an A's club that hasn't hit well at all during an 0-5 slide to open the season. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He quietly finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. Bassitt has seen his walks per nine innings decrease in each of the last three seasons, not to mention the fact he's given up less than 1.0 home run per nine innings in two of those three campaigns. He worked at least into the sixth inning in 10 of 11 regular season starts last season and while he wasn't at his best in his first start this season, he still managed to give the A's 5 1/3 innings, allowing just three earned runs against a red hot Astros offense. Take the under (10*). |
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04-06-21 | Predators v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Wings are coming off a stunning 5-1 win over the Lightning in Tampa on Sunday afternoon but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as they return home to host the Predators on Tuesday. The Predators are hot right now, winners of seven of their last eight games overall. Note, however, that they've scored more than three goals just once over their last seven contests, that coming in a seven-goal outburst against these same Red Wings back on March 25th. The Preds aren't set up particularly well here, noting that they average just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 12-3 in that situation with an average total of just 4.1 goals. For their part, the Wings have seen the 'under' go 10-2-1 off a win this season, with those games averaging a total of 4.8 goals. For all of its struggles, Detroit has actually been fairly tough in its own end here at home this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. The problem has been the Wings lacking offense as it scores just 2.4 goals per game here at Little Caesar's Arena. With both teams missing a number of key cogs up front due to injury, I'll call for a reasonably low-event game on Tuesday night in the Motor City. Take the under (10*). |
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04-06-21 | Penguins v. Rangers OVER 6 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive low-scoring games in Buffalo, grabbing three of a total of four points in the process as they continue to fight to reach the postseason. Perhaps we can chalk up the fact that they managed to score only four goals in regulation time in those two games in Buffalo to New York's youth. It would have certainly been easy for the Rangers to overlook the lowly Sabres, especially coming off a hard-fought two-game split against the Capitals in which New York scored nine goals. Here, I look for the Rangers offense to get back on track at home, where they've averaged 3.3 goals per game this season, and square off against a Penguins squad that has given up a less than impressive 3.2 goals per game on the road. Perhaps not surprisingly, three of the last five meetings between these two teams in New York have gone 'over' the total. The Pens would like to tighten things up after suffering a wild 7-5 loss against the Bruins in Boston on Saturday. However, the trends don't point to that as they've posted a 10-2 o/u record when coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. Also note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 when the Penguins come off a road loss by two goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of 7.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers average 3.5 goals per game off a loss over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The A's are off to a miserable start this season after getting swept in a four-game series against the division-rival Astros. While I'm not ready to take a flyer on them just yet, I do expect them to do a better job of keeping the Dodgers offense at bay than they did against Houston and will back the 'under' in the opener of this mini two-game set on Monday night. Dustin May will take the ball for the Dodgers. He finished fifth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting last season and appeared to be rounding into form as the Dodgers exhibition schedule drew to a close, allowing just five earned runs in 19 innings of work while striking out 17 over his final three Spring Training outings, covering a span of 14 innings. Frankie Montas took a step back for the A's in 2020 after consistently pitching well in 2018 and 2019. On a positive note, he did see his strikeouts per nine innings rare increase for the second straight season to a career-high 10.2. He quite simply gave up too many hits, home runs and walks but I'm willing to chalk it up as an anomaly during what was certainly a strange Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. The A's just aren't hitting right now and while the Dodgers have scored plenty, they're coming off a four-game series at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Expect a different story to unfold in Oakland. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 160 | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Gonzaga at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Gonzaga's thrilling overtime victory over UCLA on Saturday while missing by a bucket with the 'under' in Baylor rout of Houston. Here, I love the way the 'under' sets up with what I feel is an inflated total for the final. Credit UCLA for hanging around in a game where most felt it would be overmatched on Saturday. It wasn't that Gonzaga played that poorly defensively, the Bruins quite simply knocked down their shots, hitting 58% from the field, in fact. There's no reason to get down on the Zags defense heading into Monday's game, however, noting that while known for its prolific offense, this is a Bulldogs squad that entered the tournament ranked 13th nationally in opponents floor percentage and 31st in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Unlike UCLA, Baylor does possess the length and athleticism to contend with the Zags offense in my opinion. The Bears have an active defense that entered the tourney ranked seventh in the country in steals per possession and 71st in block percentage. That's not to mention a very respectable 44th in opponents floor percentage. If anything, we've seen Baylor get stronger defensively as this tournament as gone on. The Bears not surprisingly got sped up a bit against Arkansas in the Elite Eight but outside of that we've seen them prefer to play a halfcourt game. This one is being priced as a potential track meet and while both teams have the pro-level talent to bring that to fruition, I believe there's a better chance we see the defenses step up and keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Pistons v. Thunder UNDER 213 | Top | 132-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams will be missing key cogs on Monday night as a matchup that would have been pretty ugly to begin with gets even uglier. Mason Plumlee has been ruled out for the Pistons due to scheduled rest. Meanwhile, the Thunder are missing a handful of key contributors, most notably Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City is coming off consecutive drummings at the hands of the Suns and Blazers on Friday and Saturday, allowing a whopping 140 and 133 points in those two setbacks, respectively. I do expect the Thunder to at least show some pride and play a little defense on Monday and this is a favorable matchup to do so with the Pistons having been held to 101 points or less in three of their last five games. In fact, going back to March 13th, Detroit has been held under 100 points on five different occasions, which is pretty staggering by today's high-scoring NBA standards. The Pistons are coming off a blowout loss at home against the Knicks on Sunday in a game that was never competitive. It is worth noting that they've allowed just 104.1 points per game when coming off a double-digit home loss this season. Also note that the 'under' is 8-1 when the Thunder come off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season, with those contests reaching an average total of just 206.5 points. The last meeting between these two teams in Oklahoma City produced just 209 points last February. The argument can certainly be made that both offenses are far worse off now than they were then. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Coyotes v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Anaheim at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. The Coyotes took the front half of this two-game set in Anaheim by a 4-2 score on Friday night but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair in Sunday's rematch. Note that the Coyotes average just 2.3 goals per game when playing on the road after notching a road victory in which they scored four goals or more over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 4.6 goals. The 'under' has cashed at a perfect 7-0 clip in that situation. Meanwhile, the Ducks average a miserable 1.6 goals per game when revenging a home loss by two goals or more this season. They've also allowed a whopping 4.1 goals in that situation but I do expect them to tighten things up tonight and Arizona is unlikely to turn in another high-scoring effort, noting it averages just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. Finally, Anaheim has posted a 4-12 o/u record after losing two of its last three games this season with those contests totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Maple Leafs v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. The Leafs are coming off back-to-back low-scoring victories in Winnipeg to open this road trip but I expect a different story to unfold in Calgary on Sunday. Note that Toronto averages 3.1 goals per game on the road this season so the fact that it scored just four goals in regulation time in those two games in Winnipeg could be considered an anomaly. Here, they should find the going a little easier against a Flames squad that isn't getting good goaltending right now and allows 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 16-6 when the Leafs come off a one-goal win over a division opponent over the last three seasons with those games averaging 6.8 total goals. The Leafs are averaging 3.7 goals per game when coming off consecutive 'under' results this season. Meanwhile, the Flames have seen the 'over' go 22-9 when playing at home revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons with those contests averaging 7.3 total goals. Two of the last three meetings in this series in Calgary have gone 'over' the total including a 4-3 Leafs victory here back on January 26th. Take the over (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 215 | Top | 86-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NBA on ABC TV Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Lakers last five games and eight of their last nine overall. We've also seen the 'under' cash in the Clippers last two contests with a number of bodies in and out of the lineup. I believe we're set up for a higher-scoring affair on Sunday, however. Coming off rare consecutive losses, I certainly expect to see the Clippers rebound here after a couple of days off to reset. Note that they average 120.7 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 229.3 points. The Lakers have seen the 'under' cash at a 32-16 clip after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, however, those contests have totaled an average of 221.8 points, north of the reasonably low total we're working with today. Los Angeles has some positive momentum here after scoring 115 points in a rout of Sacramento two nights ago. Bettors will likely be hesitant to back the 'over' here due to the notable absences on both teams, particularly the Lakers. That's just fine as it keeps the total in a very reasonable range. Take the over (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 1-12 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games between these two N.L. Central clubs to open the season but I believe Sunday's posted total will prove too high to keep that 'over' streak alive. Note that the Reds have averaged just 3.9 runs per game in 81 day games over the last 2+ seasons. They also average just 3.9 runs per game off a win over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-6 after the Cardinals are involved in a game that totals 15 runs or more over the last three seasons with those contests totaling just 7.2 runs on average. Keep in mind, the 'under' remains 15-12 in the last 27 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have somewhat surprisingly dropped the first two games of this series, only generating two runs on an improbable Pablo Sandoval pinch-hit home run on Thursday. While Atlanta is loaded with talent up and down its order, I'm not sure it can just flip a switch and start hitting. Zach Eflin will aim to shut down the Braves again on Sunday and he's certainly capable of doing it having given up just four hits and four earned runs against them in 12 1/3 innings of work last season. I do have confidence in Braves sophomore starter Ian Anderson on Sunday afternoon. Lost in the fact that the Braves bats have been silent is that the Phillies haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball either. Anderson gained plenty of big game experience in last year's postseason and should treat this as an equally important game with Atlanta off to an 0-2 start. Take the under (10*). |
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04-03-21 | UCLA v. Gonzaga OVER 145.5 | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Gonzaga at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams delivered 'under' results in the Elite Eight, albeit in very different ways with UCLA involved in an extremely low-scoring victory over defensive-minded Michigan and Gonzaga putting up 85 points in a rout of USC. Here, I don't believe UCLA will be able to do anything to throw the Bulldogs off their game offensively, noting that the Bruins entered the tournament ranked a miserable 299th in the nation in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. They also checked in ranked 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage and 156th in opponents floor percentage. I don't need to tell you that's just not going to cut it against a Gonzaga squad that ranks tops in the nation in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage. The Bruins have been hot and cold offensively in this tournament but might have a sliver of hope here with the Zags holding USC to 38.7% shooting last time out. That may seem contradictory, but it's worth noting that the Bulldogs haven't held consecutive opponents under 40% shooting since January 16th and 23rd against St. Mary's-CA and Pacific. The Bruins should at least get some good looks at the basket in this one, noting that Gonzaga ranks well north of 200th in terms of block percentage, and ranks worse than UCLA's last opponent, Michigan, in terms of opponents floor percentage, opponents effective field goal percentage and opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. This will by no means be a walk in the park for the Bruins offensively, but I think they can do enough to help get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 59-78 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Baylor at 5:15 pm et on Saturday. This has the makings of a low-scoring battle between the Cougars and Bears on Saturday evening. Houston entered the tournament ranked number one in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage and it hasn't disappointed, holding its four opponents to 56, 60, 46 and 61 points. While this will be Houston's toughest test in the tournament to date, I believe it will be up for the challenge. Baylor put up 81 points in its Elite Eight win over Arkansas but that was the first time it broke the 80-point mark since back on March 7th against Texas Tech. I suspect the Bears might have trouble running their offense against a Houston defense that entered the tournament ranked ninth in the nation in block percentage and 16th in steals per possession. I also think Houston's slow pace, ranking around 300th in the country in possessions per game could cause the Bears some problems here. Where I don't expect Baylor to have any trouble is slowing a Houston offense that has topped out at 67 points since opening the tournament with a rout of an overmatched Cleveland State squad. Keep in mind, the Cougars Elite Eight victory over Oregon State got to just 128 points but featured 12 points in the game's final minute as the Beavers did everything they could to extend proceedings. I'm not convinced this game will go right down to the wire, and that should help our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Blackhawks v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Nashville at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw two low-scoring games between these two teams in Chicago last weekend but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Nashville on Saturday afternoon. The Blackhawks fell just short against Carolina on Thursday (we won with the Hurricanes), scoring three goals in the process. They now fall into a situation that has seen the 'over' cash at a 33-17 clip when they play on the road following a loss over the last three seasons, with those games averaging 6.8 total goals. Meanwhile, the Preds haven't posted an 'over' result since March 25th. Note that the 'over' is 8-1 when Nashville comes off at least three consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling 7.3 goals on average. I should also point out that the Blackhawks average 4.1 goals per game when seeking revenge for three straight losses against an opponent, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.6 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Penguins v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair in the front half of this two-game set in Boston on Thursday night and I'm anticipating more of the same on Saturday afternoon. Note that Bruins home games are averaging just 5.1 total goals this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 10-5 clip. The 'under' has gone 12-4 with the Penguins allowing just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a win by two goals ore more over a division opponent in their last game over the lats two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. On the flip side, the Bruins have given up just 1.8 goals per game when playing at home after scoring just one goal in their previous contest over the last three seasons. The 'under' has cashed in five of the last six meetings in this series played here in Boston and all five previous matchups this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams in yesterday's season-opener as the Padres rallied from a big deficit to defeat the D'Backs 8-7. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Friday, however. Merrill Kelly will get the start for Arizona. He had a promising 2020 season cut short due to injury last year but all indications are that his velocity is back where it needs to be following thoracic outlet surgery last August. In two starts against the Padres last season, Kelly allowed just one earned run on nine hits over 12 2/3 innings of work. Both of those games stayed 'under' the total with just five and six runs. Kelly was worked at least six innings in five of seven career starts against San Diego. Padres prized offseason acquisition Blake Snell will get his first start with his new team on Friday. He looked good in Spring Training, working his way up to five innings pitched in his final exhibition start, allowing just one hit and no earned runs while striking out six and walking only one in that outing. All told, he allowed just five hits over 14 1/3 scoreless frames in March. I'm actually higher on the D'Backs offense than some but after plating seven runs yesterday, I look for some regression here tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Sharks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 3-0 | Win | 108 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We got burned by two goals in the final 12 seconds to spoil our 'under' play in the Sharks most recent game - a 4-2 victory over the Wild on Wednesday night. Undeterred, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as San Jose heads out on the road to face the rival Kings. Los Angeles is coming off a somewhat surprising 4-2 win in Las Vegas on Wednesday. That sets up the Kings rather poorly here, however, noting that they average just 2.2 goals per game when coming off a win over a division opponent over the last three seasons. The 'under' has cashed at a 25-11 clip in that situation, with an average total of just 5.0 goals scored. Better still, the 'under' is 12-2 when the Kings play at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average of just 3.7 total goals. Also note that the 'under' is 9-2 when Los Angeles plays with revenge for a road loss against an opponent by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 4.5 goals on average. San Jose averages only 2.2 goals per game following an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Finally, we've seen the 'under' cash in six of 10 meetings between these two teams over the last three seasons. Take the under (9*). |
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04-02-21 | Bulls v. Jazz UNDER 224.5 | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. We've won with the 'under' in each of Utah's last two games but also cashed a ticket with the 'over' in its win over the Grizzlies last Friday night. Of course, it's been an emotional week for the Jazz after their plane was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting the flock of birds shortly after taking off on its way to Memphis. As a result, Donovan Mitchell ended up staying back in Utah while the Jazz delivered a 111-107 win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday. The 'under' has now cashed in five of Utah's last seven games overall. The Bulls have seen the 'under' cash in eight of their last 11 games and they enter this contest on the heels of five consecutive losses, including three in a row to open this road trip. While Zach LaVine remains questionable to play on Friday I would operate under the assumption he won't be able to go in this one. After allowing their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better I expect Chicago to focus on playing better defense here, noting that it has allowed 110.8 points per game when playing on the road after a game where 225 points or more were scored, well below its season average for points allowed per game. Meanwhile, the Jazz are giving up just 102.9 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games this season and enter this game fairly locked-in defensively, having held six straight opponents to 46.7% or worse shooting from the field. Finally, note that the 'under' has cashed in three of four meetings in this series over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Blues v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Friday. This might be one of our last opportunities to play 'over' 5.5 goals in a game involving the Avs for a while given the way they've been performing lately. There's little reason to expect the Blues to knock them off stride here, noting that St. Louis has allowed 4.2 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored five goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Colorado is an excellent positive momentum play here having averaged a whopping 5.1 goals per game after winning its last two games by two goals or more this season, with that situation producing 7.4 total goals on average. The Avs are averaging an impressive 4.0 goals per game on home ice this season. Interestingly, St. Louis has been a better offensive team on the road than at home, scoring 3.1 goals per game. The Blues check in having scored just four goals combined over their last four games but have averaged a solid 3.3 goals per game when coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, and I wouldn't expect this offense to stay down for too long. Take the over (9*). |
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04-01-21 | Magic v. Pelicans OVER 220 | Top | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. There's some question as to whether Zion Williamson will be able to play in this one after spraining his thumb on Monday night against Boston. While I do think there's a good chance he'll be on the floor with the Pelicans needing every win they can get in the playoff push, even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair. We of course won with the Magic in Tuesday's upset win over the Clippers. We saw Orlando come into its own a little bit offensively in that one, scoring 66 second half points while getting a boost from the return of sharp-shooter Terrence Ross. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are coming off an upset win of their own, securing a 115-109 victory in Boston on Monday. That marked their third straight 'under' result. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 12-0 when the Pelicans come off an outright underdog win over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 243.5 points. The 'over' has also gone 10-1 when the Pelicans play at home off an ATS victory this season with those games reaching an average total of 240.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 27-12 when the Magic play with the total set at 220 points or higher, as is the case here (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). |
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04-01-21 | Hurricanes v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw a tightly-contested, low-scoring game between these two teams two nights ago at the United Center but I look for a much different story to unfold on Thursday. The Canes offense got a boost with the return of Victor Trocheck on Tuesday and he wasted no time contributing, chipping in with an assist on their lone goal in over 18 minutes played while also firing six shots on goal. Look for the Canes offense to get rewarded here on Thursday as they face a Blackhawks squad that has allowed a whopping 3.9 goals per game when playing at home after a one-goal victory over the last three seasons, with that situation producing 7.7 total goals on average with the 'over' cashing at a 12-3 clip. The 'over' has gone 25-13 when the Blackhawks play at home off a win over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.8 goals. Carolina averages 3.1 goals per game on the road this season and prior to Tuesday's game had been playing well, scoring 11 goals during a three-game winning streak. Note that Tuesday's 'under' result was the first of its kind in this series this season with the previous three meetings totaling 7, 10 and 8 goals. Take the over (10*). |