Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-05-21 | Grambling State v. Tennessee State UNDER 52.5 | 16-10 | Win | 115 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Tennessee State at 4 pm et on Sunday. I'm not expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in this contest on Sunday. Tennessee State is beginning a new era with a completely new coaching staff led by Tennessee Titans legend Eddie George and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson. There are plenty of kinks to be worked out in what is expected to be a run-heavy offensive attack, however. In seven Spring games, the Tigers topped out at 26 points, scoring 20 points or less in five of those seven contests. Now they face a Grambling defense that was terrific in 2019 but failed to deliver in the Spring, allowing 30+ points in three of four games. Expect a better defensive performance from Grambling now that it has had a full Fall camp under its belt. Similar to Tennessee State, the Grambling offense couldn't get much going in the Spring, scoring a grand total of 66 points in four games. Also like TSU, Grambling will look to control the clock and generally look to run the ball first on offense. There's just not a ton of explosiveness in the Tigers passing game. This contest will certainly have more eyes on it than usual for an early season FCS clash as it's nationally-televised on NFL Network. Don't count on a whole lot of scoring. Take the under (8*). |
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09-05-21 | Aces v. Sky UNDER 169.5 | Top | 84-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Chicago at 3 pm et on Sunday. The first game in this home-and-home set reached 173 points as Candace Parker went off for 30 points for the Sky while the Aces had A'ja Wilson, Riquna Williams and Kelsey Plum all contribute 21 points, weathering the storm without Liz Cambage and Dearica Hamby, who are both expected to miss Sunday's game as well. That frontcourt duo's absence opened things up for the Chicago offense, with Stefanie Dolson also scoring in double-figures. I do expect to see the Aces make the necessary adjustments here, noting that Parker and Dolson have both failed to record double-digit scoring figures in consecutive games since the return from the Olympic break. Las Vegas has of course been a lower-scoring team on the road this season and here will face a determined Chicago squad coming off back-to-back losses that knows it needs to tighten things up, and perhaps slow things down a bit, as they return home off a long road trip. Note that the Aces are averaging just north of 75 points per game away from home since the break and will be hard-pressed to improve on that scoring average with Cambage and Hamby sidelined. Meanwhile, as I mentioned Chicago is back home on just two days' rest following a five-game in 10-night road trip that took it all over the map. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night, perhaps not unexpected after Friday's wild 19-run affair (St. Louis won 15-4). Here, I expect another relatively high-scoring contest as the Cards send veteran Jon Lester to the hill against Corbin Burnes. Lester has allowed exactly one earned run in consecutive outings. That actually sets the 'over' up well in this one, noting that the 'over' has gone 27-11 when Lester starts on the road after allowing one earned run or less in consecutive starts, with that situation producing an average total of 10.2 runs. The 'over' is also 14-5 with the Cards revenging a loss where they scored a single run or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 9.7 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 183-139 with the Brewers at home off a win by four runs or more, producing an average total of 9.5 runs. Take the over (10*). |
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09-05-21 | Kenya v. Rwanda UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 1 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.0 goals between Rwanda and Kenya at 9 am et on Sunday. While Rwanda will be at home for this match, where it has gone undefeated in its last three matches, it will by no means be an easy task as it looks to bounce back from a 1-0 loss to Mali last time out. Kenya is the considerably higher ranked squad but after earning a point in a 0-0 draw against Uganda, it will simply be looking to carve out a similar result here. In fact, the 0-0 draw would serve both sides just fine on Sunday. That's a good thing as neither squad boasts much offensive firepower while at the same time being fairly difficult to break down defensively. Kenya has gone undefeated in its last five matches and should be the very definition of a 'tough out' away from home in this one. Note that Rwanda hasn't managed to tally a single marker in its last four matches against the Kenyans. This is a low total, even by international soccer standards. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set it low enough. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. |
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09-04-21 | Indiana v. Iowa UNDER 45.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. To put it simply, I expect the defenses to be ahead of the offenses in this Week 1 Big Ten showdown at Kinnick Stadium. With that being said, I'm not sure we'll see a whole lot of 'splash plays' resulting in turnovers or short fields from the defenses that would contribute to a higher-scoring game than expected. Indiana scored more than 30 points in four of its first five games last season before the offense sputtered down the stretch, putting up just north of 20 points per game over its final three contests culminating with a 26-20 loss against Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl. The upstart Hoosiers caught some opponents - namely Penn State and Michigan - flat-footed in the early stages of last year's unique season but I don't expect them to do the same against a well-coached Iowa squad here. Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for the Hoosiers after suffering another knee injury that required season-ending surgery last year. All indications are that he's good to go for the opener but I'm not sure the Hoosiers offensive gameplan will involve throwing him to the wolves in this difficult opening week road tilt. Indiana's ground attack hasn't impressed in recent years but I do think it will make a concerted effort to control the clock and pound away a little bit in this one. Indiana's defense struggled in pass coverage a year ago but gets back plenty of experience in the secondary and should hold up just fine against a Hawkeyes offense that isn't built to bomb away. The Hoosiers defense proved more than capable of stopping the run and getting into the backfield to harass opposing quarterbacks a year ago and most of the key pieces from that unit are back. Iowa's offense took a bit of a step forward last year thanks to ultra-efficient performance in the red zone. Can it repeat that level of production this year? I'm not so sure. QB Spencer Petras loses his top two wide receivers from a year ago to begin with. Keep in mind, the Hawkeyes aerial attack managed just nine touchdowns all of last season. There's reason to believe the Iowa ground game can continue to find success, even with Mekhi Sargent moving on to the NFL (and impressing in preseason action with the Titans). Tyler Goodson is a quality running back that seems like he's been around forever, but he's not exactly a true home run hitter out of the backfield. There will be times where the Hawkeyes offense plods along in this contest. Last year, Hawkeyes home games produced 41, 56, 46 and 35 total points. That was about par for the course for a team that has become accustomed to playing tight, relatively low-scoring affairs here at Kinnick Stadium over the years. There will be opportunities to sneak in 'over' plays in games involving Iowa this season as we're almost always afforded relatively low totals. I just don't believe this is such a spot. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-21 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 51-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
CFL East Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. With both teams coming off dismal offensive performances last week I think most bettors will be looking to back the 'under' in this matchup of 1-2 teams on Friday night. I'll go the other way as I believe we're being afforded a very reasonable total in a game where we can expect to see some progression from both offenses. The Alouettes actually have one of the more aggressive downfield passing games in the league led by QB Vernon Adams Jr. They ran into a tough matchup last week with the Ti-Cats heading into Montreal sporting an 0-2 record. Hamilton is of course an elite team and played with a real edge, particularly on the defensive side of the football. While Ottawa has posted some excellent numbers defensively in the early going this season, we're not talking about an elite defense in my opinion. It's had more to do with game flow as a result of its own punchless offense as far as I'm concerned. Here, I do think we'll see the RedBlacks get a spark offensively with head coach Paul LaPolice hinting at backup QB Dominique Davis possibly being worked into the gameplan with Matt Nichols struggling. With the Ottawa ground game stalled and starter Timothy Flanders battling an injury we should see the RedBlacks air it out more often than usual in this one. Both teams are in desperate need of a victory off consecutive losses and with that in mind, I look for both offenses to take a few more chances than they otherwise would, leading to a higher-scoring game than most are anticipating. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met they combined to score a whopping 74 points back in 2019. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-21 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. If we're going to play an 'under' at this stage of the MLB season, we want to do so in situations where both starters are capable of working deep into the game as bullpens are usually overworked by this point and tend to be unreliable. That makes this play appealing as both Indians starter Cal Quantrill and Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi certainly fit the bill. Quantrill has worked at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts overall and has the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. He's been a completely different pitcher since the second week of July, allowing more than a single earned run just three times in his last 10 outings. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last nine trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last 11 starts and into the seventh inning in five consecutive outings at home. He's been solid at Fenway Park all season, recording a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Like Quantrill, he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest here, noting that the two starters just matched up in Cleveland last week with that game totaling eight runs. Note that two of the Indians best hitters, Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes are currently mired in 0-for-11 and 0-for-14 slumps at the plate, respectively. As for the bullpens, they've combined to record seven saves while blowing only two over their last eight games. With both teams playing well right now, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on a cool September night at Fenway Park. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off consecutive low-scoring games. With a subpar pitching matchup on tap Friday night, I'm expecting a different story to unfold. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Twins playing on the road off consecutive games where they plated three runs or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.9 runs. The 'over' has also gone 31-9 with Minnesota having lost three of its last four contests this season with that spot producing an average total of 10.8 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-7 with the Rays playing with 'double revenge' this season, good for an average total of 9.6 runs. The 'over' has also cashed at a 15-6 clip with the Rays coming off a game where four or less total runs were scored this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of 9.2 runs. Take the over (8*). |
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09-03-21 | Phillies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are desperately trying to stay in the N.L. playoff race but they've by no means tightened things up, with a number of recent slugfests. I expect another similarly high-scoring result on Friday night in Miami. The 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Phillies coming off three or more consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here, good for an average total of 11.3 runs scored in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'over' is an incredible 10-1 with the Marlins coming off three or more consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons. That situation has produced a whopping average total of 13 runs - nearly double the total we're working with tonight. Both starting pitchers are coming off outings in which they didn't allow a single run. That changes here. Take the over (8*). |
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09-03-21 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair in the nation's capital on Friday night as the suddenly surging Mets open a series against the reeling Nationals. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Nats coming off three straight losses against division opponents over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 12.5 runs. We've also seen the 'over' cash at an incredible 10-1 clip with the Mets playing on the road off a one-run win over a division opponent over the last three seasons with that spot resulting in an average total of 11.7 runs. Finally, the 'over' is 25-13 with the Mets playing as a road favorite priced -110 or higher over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 9.8 runs. Take the over (9*). |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech UNDER 64.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday. I believe the North Carolina defense has the chance to be good this season, really good. The headline-grabber is the loss of outstanding LB Chazz Surratt. However, virtually the entire starting defense outside of Surratt returns and I like the way the Tar Heels are built from the back in, with an outstanding secondary, a loaded linebacking corps and a solid defensive line that might give up some yards on the ground, but will put enough pressure on Virginia Tech QB Braxton Burmeister to make him uncomfortable for much of the night on Friday. The Hokies offense went as far as RB Khalil Herbert took them last year, as he ran for just under 1,200 yards - good for more than eight yards per rush. He's gone and now someone has to pick up the slack. Virginia Tech has a couple of excellent wide receivers in Tayvion Robinson and Tre Turner but will Burmeister have enough time in the pocket to find them downfield? That's a big question as the Hokies lost two of their best offensive linemen to transfers, not to mention Christian Darrisaw to the NFL. Expect to see Virginia Tech use its short to intermediate passing game to try to churn out long, clock-eating drives in this one in hopes of essentially shortening the game and keeping the ball out of the hands of the explosive North Carolina offense. The Tar Heels hung 56 points on the Hokies in last year's meeting. Needless to say, they'll have Virginia Tech's attention here in Week 1. The Hokies added Jordan Williams from Clemson and should at the very least be better defensively than they were at the tail-end of last season when they quite simply came unglued. They'll likely only be able to keep the Tar Heels offense at bay for so long, but that should be enough as we're dealing with a lofty total in the mid-60's at the time of writing. North Carolina's offense should be every bit as explosive as it was a year ago, even after losing a host of key performers to the NFL. It might just take a bit of time. Again, this total assumes the Tar Heels are going to come out in midseason form. Even if that is the case, it generally takes two to topple a total this high this early in the season. I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. We saw a wild, high-scoring extra innings affair between these two teams in last night's series-opener. With the park expected to play fairly neutral weather-wise on Friday, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest. Note that the 'under' is 13-2 in Pirates starter Stephen Brault's 15 starts since the start of last season with those games totaling an average of just 5.9 runs. He got lit up by the Cardinals in his most recent start but I expect a solid bounce-back performance here, noting that he's pitched 10 scoreless innings against the Cubs in two starts since the start of last season. Also note that the 'under' has gone 25-8 with the Cubs coming off four wins in their last five games over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 6.8 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-21 | Liberty v. Storm OVER 163.5 | 75-85 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Seattle at 10 pm et on Thursday. With the Storm coming off three straight losses - their longest such streak of the season - we can anticipate a big bounce-back performance here at home against the Liberty on Thursday night. While that could lead to them locking in defensively, I believe there's a better chance we see the Seattle offense go off in what should turn out to be a high-scoring affair. Note that Storm home games have totaled an average of 165.6 points this season with the 'over' holding a slightly 7-6 edge in their 13 games to date. The Liberty check in off consecutive awful offensive showings, putting up 64 and 66 points in losses to Phoenix and Minnesota, respectively. There's reason to believe they can bounce back here, noting that they scored exactly 83 points in both games during a 1-1 home split against the Storm in August. We've only seen New York held under 70 points in consecutive games on one previous occasion this season. That was right before the Olympic break. When it returned after the break it scored 78 points in its first game back, with that contest totaling 166 points in Minnesota. Note that five of the last seven meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total with the 'over' holding a 12-9 edge in 21 meetings here in Seattle. Take the over (9*). |
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09-01-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. Jake Odorizzi gets the nod for the Astros. He hasn't worked six innings in a start since way back on July 9th and that's telling. He hasn't been pitching particularly well, sporting a 1.50 WHIP over his last three starts. The Mariners have already got three previous looks at him this season and have had some success, collecting eight earned runs and delivering three home runs off of him. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of his last eight starts overall with his last two outings against the Mariners totaling 16 and 15 runs. Logan Gilbert has seemingly hit the 'rookie wall' for the Mariners. He'll pitch on just four days' rest and make his sixth start since August 4th, having allowed a whopping 24 earned runs over his previous five including five home runs over his last three trips to the hill. The Astros just teed off on him back on August 21st, scoring nine earned runs on eight hits over just 4 2/3 innings in a 15-1 victory. Both bullpens are generally solid but check in having blown two saves apiece over their last seven games respectively. Take the over (10*). |
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09-01-21 | Netherlands v. Norway OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
World Cup Qualifying 1H Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' 1.0 goal between Norway and the Netherlands at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. I'm certain we'll see the Netherlands come in with the mindset that they need to find an early goal in this match as the longer it stays 0-0, the better the chances that Erling Haaland works his magic and pulls off a stunner for the underdog Norwegians. Of course, the Dutch are brimming with talent - that was on full display during Euro 2020, but unfortunately only in the group stage. After making an early exit at the hands of the Czechs (by way of a 2-0 shutout), the Netherlands will be eager to gain a positive result here. This is certainly a favorable matchup as while Norway does boast starpower in Haaland up front, it is not all that deep and should be hard-pressed to contend for 90 minutes. With that in mind, I don't believe Norway has the belief in itself to play for a 0-0 draw in this one. The Norwegians know that they'll need to take some chances in attack if they're to have any chance at stealing a point from the Netherlands. It's not as if the Dutch are invincible - noting that they suffered a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Turkey in World Cup Qualifying back in March. Norway has seen five first half goals in three previous World Cup Qualifying matches this year. Finding an early goal from one, if not both of these sides on Wednesday should not be difficult. I believe two first half markers is well within the realm of possibility. Take the first half over (10*). |
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08-31-21 | Sky v. Mercury UNDER 164 | Top | 83-103 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Sky are locked in defensively right now, fresh off holding the defending champion Seattle Storm to just 69 and 75 points in a two-game sweep in the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, Phoenix has scored 80 or more points in three straight games but that had more to do with the level of opposition it faced on its most recent road trip (against Atlanta and New York). Here, the Mercury will be up against a Chicago squad that allows just 76 points per game on 41.1% shooting on the road this season. Note that Phoenix could be without Brittney Griner for this game although we'll make the play on the assumption that she will play. The Sky lit up the Storm for 107 points last time out noting that the last time (and only other time this season) they scored over 100 points in a game they followed it up with a contest total totaled just 156 points. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-21 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 44 | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Sunday. I think we can still 'buy low' when it comes to the Stampeders offense as most are still setting low expectations in the absence of star QB Bo Levi Mitchell. Backup Jake Maier stepped in and did an admirable job in a 28-22 win over the Alouettes last week. In general, the Stamps offense looked as good as it has all season, with RB Ka'Deem Carey rushing for two touchdowns and two wide receivers posting 100+ yard receiving days. While the Blue Bombers vaunted defensive front will pose a serious challenge, the Stamps offensive line has been exceeding expectations, ranking second in the league in fewest sacks allowed, and I expect it to hold up well here also. Note that the Bombers two top pass rushers, Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat continue to deal with nagging injuries. Both should play but they're still not at 100%. Meanwhile, the Bombers offense will get a major boost with the return of RB Andrew Harris. With their ground game struggling, his return should really open things up for QB Zach Collaros and the offense. The Stamps defense has faced a favorable early season schedule but has allowed six offensive touchdowns in three games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-29-21 | Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 36 | 29-26 | Loss | -108 | 99 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Cincinnati at 4 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Dolphins rout of the Falcons last Saturday while cashing the 'under' in the Bengals narrow loss in Washington. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair as the Fins and Bengals wrap up their respective preseason schedules. Miami opened up its offensive playbook a little more in last week's 37-point outburst against Atlanta but I'm not expecting a similar gameplan as it heads out on the road this week. Head coach Brian Flores probably saw all he needed to from Tua Tagovailoa in that victory as the second-year QB attempted 23 passes and threw for 183 yards and a score in the win. This game more than likely belongs to QBs Jacoby Brissett and Reid Sinnett (along with a heavy dose of the Fins ground game). Cincinnati isn't playing QB Joe Burrow in the preseason, along with a number of other offensive starters. I certainly don't expect a sudden offensive outburst here against a quality defensive opponent. Despite trailing for much of the game, the Bengals threw the football only 27 times for 107 passing yards in last week's loss to the Washington Football Team. I would anticipate another contest where the Cincinnati offense simply 'goes through the motions' here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Ranger Suarez has been about as reliable as it gets for the Phillies, stepping into the rotation at the start of the month and allowing just five earned runs in 21 1/3 innings of work. His three previous home starts have totaled just 8, 3 and 4 runs. Meanwhile, D'Backs veteran starter Madison Bumgarner has enjoyed a nice comeback season and enters this outing having worked at least six innings in six consecutive starts. His last three road outings have totaled just 5, 2 and 6 runs. The left-hander has posted an impressive 1.05 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. The less said about the two bullpens the better, but I'm not sure they'll be asked to do too much in this one, and neither lineup has really been tearing the cover off the ball (note that Friday's wild 7-6 extra innings game was 4-4 after nine innings). Weather conditions aren't nearly as favorable for hitters at Citizens Bank Park as they were earlier in the week. Take the under (10*). |
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08-28-21 | UTEP v. New Mexico State UNDER 56.5 | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 465 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and New Mexico State at 9:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. I'm not anticipating a shootout as UTEP and New Mexico State look to start their 2021 campaigns on a positive note on opening night. The Miners offense struggled for the most part last season. It does bring plenty of continuity to the table here with virtually all of the same faces returning but an offensive explosion in the season-opener might be a little too much to ask. I do think we'll see UTEP find plenty of success putting together long, clock-churning drives as it matches up well against the New Mexico State defense. With that being said, priority one will be taking care of the football after finishing in the bottom-13 of the nation with over two turnovers per game last season. On the flip side, the Miners defensive front should be able to camp out in the Aggies backfield in this one. The strength of UTEP's defense certainly lies in its pass rush and while New Mexico State has brought in some help on the offensive line, it's going to take time to come together as a unit. Here, with two unproven (and turnover-prone in the case of junior Jonah Johnson) quarterbacks, I expect to see a relatively safe gameplan from the New Mexico State offense with perhaps a heavy dose of its 1-2 backfield tandem of Alex Escobar and O'Maury Samuels. As is often the case, we're dealing with a high early season total based largely on the potential of both offenses rather than what we're actually going to see on the field. This is actually a critical Week 1 affair for both teams as they hope to avoid setting a negative tone with a tough schedule ahead. Take the under (8*). |
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08-28-21 | Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 70.5 | Top | 10-44 | Win | 100 | 218 h 21 m | Show |
CFB on ESPN TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. This is being pegged as a shootout. That's not surprising considering Hawaii is known for its high-flying offensive ways (even if that hasn't necessarily held true in recent years) and UCLA has plenty of returning talent under the guidance of offensive guru Chip Kelly. I believe the total will prove to be too high, however, as the two teams could surprise defensively. Hawaii returns last year's defense virtually intact. Expect defensive-minded head coach Todd Graham to treat this as an excellent 'measuring stick game' right out of the gates against a quality UCLA offense. The Rainbow Warriors boast speed all over the defensive backfield and should be able to do a good job of limiting big plays down the field in this one. They're also well-positioned to minimize UCLA's effectiveness on the ground with a substantial defensive line led by NT Blessman Ta'ala. LB Darius Muasau is by no means a household name but he's a stud linebacker that led the team in tackles a year ago, including 4.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. Offensively, I expect Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro to do enough running to help keep drives alive, moving the chains and ultimately shortening this game by keeping the clock moving. Cordeiro isn't going to wow anyone with his arm and I don't expect him to be put in too many high-risk situations against an opportunistic UCLA defense here. Instead, look for him to take what the Bruins give him and rely on steady RB Calvin Turner to pound away on early downs. The Bruins have to replace their leading rusher from a year ago but outside of that, their offense is loaded. I simply question whether we'll see them hit the ground running right out of the gates in this non-conference Week 0 affair. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been dealing with an undisclosed injury but is expected to be good to go for the season-opener. The ceiling is sky-high for this offense but as I mentioned, Hawaii has a capable defense that could make life at least a little bit difficult here. Defensively, UCLA loses Osa Odighizuwa to the NFL but returns the bulk of the defense that finished last season sixth in the Pac-12 in total defense and second in scoring defense. This is a season-opening matchup it can handle but I do think the Bruins could end up on the field a little more than they would like should the Warriors pound away as I would expect them to. That only serves to help our cause with the potential for long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). |
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08-27-21 | Hamilton v. Montreal OVER 46.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The CFL is off to a low-scoring start this season but now that we're into Week 4, I think we'll begin to see the offenses start to round into form. If this game were played a little later in the season I'm certain we'd be dealing with a total in the 50's. The Ti-Cats are expected to give Dane Evans the start at quarterback with Jeremiah Masoli sidelined. Remember, Evans took over the starting job for Masoli back in 2019 and actually started for them in the Grey Cup title game. He didn't look particularly sharp in relief of Masoli against the Riders two weeks ago but has had a couple of weeks of practice since then thanks to the bye week and I expect him to take advantage of the Als weakness, which happens to be their secondary. Hamilton has been banging its head against the wall trying to run the football so far this season so I think we'll see them take to the air more often in this one. On the flip side, the Als boast one of the most aggressive offenses in the CFL. We can expect to see QB Vernon Adams Jr. bomb away in this one and he should have ample time to operate in the pocket with the Ti-Cats undermanned on the defensive line. Take the over (10*). |
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08-27-21 | Colts v. Lions OVER 31.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Detroit a 7 pm et on Friday. With the Colts being known for their stout defense and the Lions pegged as potentially the worst team in football this season, not to mention coming off consecutive losses to open the preseason, it's not all that surprising that we're dealing with a low total in this 'meaningless' preseason tilt. I think there's reason to expect some offensive fireworks, however. Indianapolis is preparing to face a brutal early season schedule. The Colts won't be able to catch their breath until mid-October when they get a home layup against the Texans. With that in mind, they need to stay healthy, particularly on the defensive side of the football, coming out of this final preseason tilt. For that reason I wouldn't expect to see much of their defensive starters. That opens the door for the Lions to perhaps go into the season with a good feeling as they try to notch their first victory of the preseason. There is some continuity on the Lions side with David Blough and Tim Boyle having taken all of the snaps here in August game action. That should continue to be the case on Friday and I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing. Keep in mind, we did see a spark from the Detroit offense against the Steelers backups last week as they put up 20 points in the fourth quarter. The Colts have thrown the football around more than you might expect in the preseason as Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger continue to battle it out for the Week 1 starting job (and eventual backup to Carson Wentz, who has returned to practice). After attempting 37 passes in Week 1 of the preseason, Eason and Ehlinger combined to attempt 40 passes in Week 2. Head coach Frank Reich will want to see better execution from the offense here this week after they were held to just 12 points and zero touchdowns in last week's narrow 12-10 win over the Vikings. Indy did move the football in that contest, with the two quarterbacks combining to throw for over 200 yards. Take the over (10*). |
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08-26-21 | Sparks v. Sun OVER 151 | 72-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Thursday. After holding their four opponents to 59, 60, 71 and 62 points since the Olympic break (all victories) it would only be human nature for the Sun to suffer a bit of a defensive letdown here. That's especially true when you consider Los Angeles was just held to 68 points in a loss that was more lopsided than the final score indicated in Washington on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Los Angeles is as healthy as it has been all season. We've seen the Sparks alternate good and bad offensive showings since returning from the break and they should be in line for a better performance here than we saw against the Mystics two nights ago. Connecticut has been in a similar pattern of good followed by subpar offensive efforts since returning from the break. I fully expect the Sun, and Jonquel Jones in particular, to turn in a sharp shooting performance here, noting that Jones scored in single-figures for the first time all season against the Aces last time out. If Connecticut was able to put up 76 points against an elite Las Vegas squad, with Jones having an off night you can only imagine what it is capable of doing against a Sparks team playing their third game in five nights in three different cities. Look for the Sun to set the pace here but for the Sparks to be along for the ride as well as they help push this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (9*). |
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08-26-21 | Crvena Zvezda v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.25 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.0 goals between CFR Cluj and Red Star Belgrade at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. NOTE: I'm reccomending a play on the 'over' using the alternate total of 2.0 goals, laying about -175 to do so at the time of writing. This of course ensures we at least get a push should the match end on exactly two goals. If alternate totals are not available at your book, I would still suggest playing the 'over' at 2.25 goals. Red Star Belgrade is looking to advance in Europa League action after bitter disappointment in Champions League qualification. It should be well on its way after securing a 4-0 victory at home in the first leg of this matchup. Despite the seemingly comfortable lead, I don't expect Red Star to sit back and 'park the bus' in this one as an aggressive attacking CFR Cluj side should afford the Serbian superclub plenty of opportunities to expand its margin. Cluj are no strangers to high-scoring affairs, noting that they fell by an aggregate 4-2 score against Young Boys in their unglorious Champions League exit. The seven-time Romanian champions do still have to carry some confidence here as they've actually gone a perfect 6-0 in league play this season and will certainly want to put on a good show here at home. Note that for as well as Red Star has performed, it has already lost a pair of matches away from home in league play and has dropped four of its last six overall on the road. Cluj is expected to have forward Alexandru Paun back for this match following his one-game suspension. I see little reason for the Romanian side to hold anything back as it needs a small miracle to secure advancement from this tie. We'll without a doubt see changes to the Cluj lineup following an unfruitful effort in the first leg. Red Star will undoubtedly use this match as a step-off point as it looks to continue on in Europa League play while also tuning up prior to its return to league action. As I said, this is a squad that has an attacking mindset regardless the situation and I don't expect to see it satisfied with its 4-0 lead. I suspect there are at least three goals to be had in this match. Take the over 2.0 goals (6*). |
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08-26-21 | Zalgiris v. Bodo / Glimt OVER 3.25 | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Zalgiris and Bodo Glimt at 12 noon et on Thursday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'over' using the alternate total of 2.5 goals (laying -195 at the time of writing). The standard total currently being offered is 3.0 goals. This is a Europa Conference League match. Bodo Glimt holds a considerable talent edge in this match yet the first leg ended in a 2-2 draw. I'm confident that result will have both sides come out with an attacking mindset in this one, noting that each of the previous two matches between these two squads has totaled exactly four goals (Bodo won 3-1 last September). The real question here is whether we believe Zalgiris can break through as the match price says it all with Bodo Glimt a considerable favorite. I believe it can do just that as Bodo has proven to be vulnerable on the back end - noting that it has seen at least three total goals scored in 10 of its last 16 matches, despite many of those matches coming against inferior opposition. We already witnessed Bodo Glimt become somewhat complacent in the second half in the first leg of this matchup and a similar situation is in the cards here - especially if/when they build a lead. They're capable of messing around as much as they'd like and still finding the back of the net on a couple of occasions here. Meanwhile, having already found a marker in each of the last two meetings, Zalgiris has a blueprint for denting the Bodo defense. I believe we'll see a worst-case scenario 2-1 result here and more likely higher-scoring affair. Take the over 2.5 goals (5*). |
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08-25-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both Walker Buehler and Blake Snell have pitched like aces here in August and I look for another well-pitched game as the two square off on Wednesday night at Petco Park. Buehler checks in sporting a 2.07 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. In four August starts he has allowed just five earned runs in 26 2/3 innings of work. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of those four games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers bullpen has posted a collective 0.91 WHIP while converting five saves without a single blown save over their last seven games. Blake Snell owns a 2.68 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 home starts this season with the 'under' cashing in eight of those games. He's had his share of issues at times this season but not against the Dodgers as he's given up just four earned runs in 15 1/3 innings. In six career starts against Los Angeles, Snell owns a 1.03 WHIP. The Padres bullpen has recorded a collective ERA north of five over its last seven games but a much more respectable 1.14 WHIP. Note that both bullpens enjoyed a day off on Monday so they should be relatively fresh here in the second game of this series. Take the under (9*). |
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08-25-21 | Rays v. Phillies OVER 8 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night with just four total runs scored. I'm expecting to see a higher total reached in the first five innings alone on Wednesday, however. Ryan Yarbrough will get the start for Tampa Bay. He's been awful in three of his last four starts and checks in having allowed four home runs in his last two outings, covering a span of just 10 innings of work. The Phillies are obviously in desperate need of a spark right now and I think they get it as they face Yarbrough for the second time this season (they chased him after 4 1/3 innings in a 5-3 victory in late May). By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a terrific Rays bullpen that has been lights out over the last seven games. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. Like Yarbrough, he's struggled for the most part lately, allowing at least four earned runs in five of his last eight trips to the hill. The last time we saw Wheeler pitch here in Philadelphia he allowed two home runs over six innings against the Reds. On another favorable night for long balls at Citizens Bank Park, I expect him to get tagged again here. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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08-25-21 | Tigers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and St. Louis at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring games recently but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon in St. Louis. Tarik Skubal will take the ball for Detroit. He's pitched well over his last few starts but note that two of those came at home and the other came on the road against an awful Orioles team. Skubal still owns a less than impressive 5.11 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in nine road starts. Also note that he averages fewer than five innings per start on the road this season. That means we're likely to see plenty of a Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.69 ERA and 1.61 WHIP away from home (entering last night's action). Jon Lester has been a complete train wreck this season and has done little to turn things around since joining the Cardinals. He has recorded a 5.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 12 home starts. Over his last three outings that ERA sits at 5.87 to go along with a 1.70 WHIP. His last 10 starts have resulted in 13, 21, 12, 14, 19, 8, 7, 11, 13 and 12 total runs - good for an average of 13 runs. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Nationals may simply be playing out the string at this point but they're still hitting, having scored 38 runs over their last six games. I expect them to get involved in another high-scoring affair to open this series in Miami on Tuesday night. Erick Fedde will get the call for the Nats. He owns an ERA of nearly six and a 1.76 WHIP over his last three starts. The 'over' has cashed in each of his last four trips to the hill. Behind Fedde is a struggling Nats bullpen that owns a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over their last seven contests. Jesus Luzardo will counter for Miami. He's struggled since coming over from Oakland, checking in with an 11.37 ERA and 2.37 WHIP over his last three starts. His last two outings have resulted in 24 and 20 total runs. Behind Fedde is a Marlins bullpen that has posted a collective 9.64 ERA and 1.97 WHIP over their last seven games. With the Marlins getting healthier lineup-wise of late, they won't shy away from a potential slugfest here. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Dylan Bundy has been marginally better (at times at least) for the Angels this season but here he'll face an Orioles lineup that will look to take their frustrations out on their former teammate - mired in an 18-game losing streak but having faced three straight opponents in the midst of playoff races. It's a different story here as the O's welcome the Angels, who just got swept by the Indians and sit out of the playoff race, two games under .500 on the season. Bundy owns an ugly 7.16 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. He's failed to last through the fifth inning in six of his last seven outings. I do think the O's lineup is better than it has shown in recent weeks and its recent struggles have had more to do with the level of opposition it has faced than anything else (Red Sox, Rays and Braves). Again, I think we see the O's take their frustrations out on the Angels subpar pitching staff on Tuesday. Spenser Watkins will counter for Baltimore. He owns a terrible 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last three starts. In six nighttime outings this season he has recorded a 6.21 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Meanwhile, the O's bullpen owns a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home this season. After being held to just two runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Indians look for the Angles to bust out at the plate in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Sky v. Dream UNDER 166.5 | Top | 86-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are reeling right now with Chicago having lost back-to-back games on its home floor and Atlanta having gone 0-4 since returning from the Olympic break and winless over its last eight games. With both coming off subpar defensive efforts look for them to make a concerted effort to rectify that on Tuesday night in Atlanta. Chicago actually checks in as one of the league's better defensive teams but it gave up a whopping 101 points on 54% shooting against Minnesota last time out. The 'under' has cashed in seven of Chicago's 11 road games this season as the Sky have limited opponents to just 41.1% shooting away from home. Note that Atlanta managed to score just 69 points in its most recent game - a 15-point loss to Phoenix - despite getting above-average shooting performances from Crystal Bradford, Odyssey Sims and Aari McDonald (combined 18-of-36 shooting). I would anticipate some offensive regression from the Dream here, noting that they're without two of their best offensive players in Chennedy Carter (suspension) and Cheyenne Parker (personal). Chicago got monster offensive performances from Allie Quigley and Courtney Vandersloot in its loss to Seattle on Sunday as the duo combined to pour in 54 points. Note that Vandersloot had previously been held to just six points combined in the Sky's first two games after the Olympic break. The 'under' has gone 7-4 in Dream home games this season with those contests totaling an average of less than 164 points. The last time these two teams hooked up here in Atlanta they combined to score just 162 points back in May. That was with the two teams getting to the free throw line a whopping 60 times. Take the under (10*). |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 39 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NFLX First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Jacksonville and New Orleans at 8 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off losses in their respective preseason openers. Jags rookie QB Trevor Lawrence admitted he felt some nerves in his debut and it showed as he took a couple of early sacks and showed few flashes of the dominant college quarterback that warranted the number one overall pick in this year's draft. I expect him to settle down and turn in a much better performance on the fast track at the Superdome on Monday night. Lawrence will see the bulk of the early action under center but we should see Gardner Minshew get some first half reps as well. By playing the first half only we avoid getting too deep into the Jags QB rotation which also includes C.J. Beathard and Jake Luton - both threw touchdown passes late in last week's loss to the Browns but I wouldn't count on a repeat effort tonight. The Jags defense didn't look good against the Browns. Cleveland moved the football up and down the field at will, despite resting most of its key offensive starters. Jacksonville was actually fortunate to only give up 13 first half points in its preseason opener as the Browns lacked some execution at the end of drives. The damage could have been much worse. Here, I expect the Saints to make a concerted effort to push the football down the field with Jameis Winston expected to get the start under center. We saw Winston get more comfortable and start taking some deep shots as the game went on against the Ravens last week and I expect to see carry-over from that gameplan here. While this is a relatively high first half total by preseason standards, I don't think it's been set high enough. By playing the first half only we'll look to avoid putting our trust in the hands of Saints possible practice squad QB Trevor Siemian, who is expected to see plenty of second half action. Take the first half over (10*). |
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08-23-21 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Boston at 1:10 pm et on Monday. I think an off day might have been the best thing for the Red Sox slumping offense yesterday and look for them to bust out against Kolby Allard and the Rangers pitching staff on Monday. With that being said, I'm not interested in paying the massive price to back Boston here so will instead play the 'over' as I do think the Rangers can do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Kolby Allard has been tagged for a whopping 12 home runs in his last seven outings. On a warm afternoon in Boston we should see the ball carrying well at Fenway Park and I expect Allard to once again give up his fair share of long balls, noting that he has posted a 33% fly ball rate on batted balls this season. Allard checks in sporting a 5.64 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road this season. The Rangers bullpen meanwhile has recorded an ERA north of five and a 1.47 WHIP with only six saves converted and seven blown on the road this season. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. Like Allard he's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park lately, allowing six home runs over his last four outings. Behind Eovaldi is a Red Sox 'pen that has recorded a collective 4.84 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in day games this season and a 1.44 WHIP over its last seven contests. It's been feast or famine for the Rangers offense lately but they have plated at least seven runs in four of their last eight games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-22-21 | 49ers v. Chargers OVER 34 | 15-10 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams were involved in fairly low-scoring games last week. While I'm not anticipating a shootout here, I do think we'll see enough offense to get 'over' the very reasonable total. All indications are that Niners quarterbacks Jimmy Garropolo and Trey Lance were impressive during 7-on-7 drills against the Chargers at their joint practices this week. With Los Angeles resting its starters on both sides of the football again here, we can expect to see progression from the San Francisco offense in this one. Meanwhile, the Chargers are giving QB Easton Stick the start in this one as he has an outside chance at leap-frogging veteran QB Chase Daniel for the backup job. Expect to see Los Angeles attempt more passes than we're accustomed to seeing in the preseason as head coach Brandon Staley evaluates his quarterbacks. Take the over (9*). |
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08-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. This game has slugfest written all over it on a hot day in Denver with the wind blowing out to right field. Off a low-scoring affair last night, look for a different story to unfold here. Taylor Widener takes the ball for the D'Backs. He has allowed at least one home run in six straight starts and three in his last two outings, spanning just 10 innings of work. Note that he hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in any of his last seven starts. The Arizona bullpen has of course been awful all season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road (entering last night's action). Jon Gray will counter for Colorado. He's been shaky since the trade deadline passed (his name was swirling around plenty of rumors at the time). He enters this start sporting an ERA north of six and a WHIP over 1.70 over his last three outings. While the Colorado bullpen has been better lately, it still owns an ugly 5.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins OVER 36.5 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 58 h 58 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Miami at 7 pm et on Saturday. We're being afforded a relatively low total to work with here thanks to 'meaningless' Week 1 preseason results. The Falcons were absolutely crushed by the Titans by a 23-3 score, at home no less. It certainly wasn't a great look for new head coach Arthur Smith - the former Titans offensive coordinator. Let's not get too excited by that ugly performance though. We didn't see the Falcons offensive starters in that game. It remains to be seen whether the starters suit up for this one but I would expect to see at least some of the Falcons stars to at the very least make a cameo appearance in this one. Regardless, I think Atlanta has enough depth on offense to put up a much better performance than we saw last week. Projected third-string QB Feleipe Franks did do a good job of moving the football on the ground, racking up 76 rushing yards against Tennessee. Here, I think we'll see Smith dial up the offense a little with a more pass-heavy attack as the Falcons use this as a measuring-stick game against a good Dolphins defense. Miami's offense got off to a fine start against the Bears last Saturday but fizzled in the second half in a 17-13 loss. That certainly wasn't an ideal spot to unleash the offense in a tough matchup on the road against a quality Bears defense. It's a different story here as Miami prepares to face a middle of the road Falcons defense. Head coach Brian Flores guided his team to a 3-1 record in his preseason debut as a head coach in 2019. That included a 34-27 victory over these same Falcons in their preseason home opener. Flores knows what he has on defense. What he needs to find out here is what he has offensively, and like Smith, I look for him to dial up a more aggressive offensive gameplan in an effort to figure out where his team stands, especially with QB Tua Tagovailoa taking over the reins as the starter this year. With this total sitting where it is, we don't need an offensive shootout to cash this ticket. That warrants us stepping up to our top rating. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Winnipeg v. Toronto OVER 43.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams in Winnipeg last week - that's been the norm in CFL action so far this season, largely due to the absence of a preseason. Here, with both teams having two games under their belts, I look for them to perform better offensively in what I believe will be a high-scoring contest in Toronto. The Argos are expected to turn to QB Nick Arbuckle under center. He was injured to start the season. I think the plan always was for him to take over the reins from McLeod Bethel-Thompson. After showing some life in Week 1, we saw very little from the Toronto offense last week. That obviously had a lot to do with the elite nature of the Blue Bombers defense but also spoke to Bethel-Thompson's ineffectiveness. RB John White could miss this game due to a hip injury but if he does, that should only force Toronto to draw up more passing plays for Arbuckle, which might not be a bad thing as White ended up banging his head against the wall all night against a stout Bombers defensive front last week. Winnipeg is expected to get some help offensively with the possible return of RB Andrew Harris and WR Darvin Adams. Regardless whether one or both of those star players return, we can expect further progression from the Bombers offense after QB Zach Collaros turned in his strongest performance of the season against the Argos last week. Toronto does have an improved defense but both Charleston Hughes and Henoc Muamba have missed practice time this week and are questionable to play on Saturday. I think it's only a matter of time before we see a breakout performance from the Winnipeg offense, and this could very well be the spot as it makes the necessary adjustments after seeing the Argos new-look defense for the first time last Friday. With this being the lowest total on the Week 2 board, we don't need an offensive shootout to cash this 'over' ticket. I have the Bombers approaching 30 points in this one while the Argos should be able to do enough to help the final score up and 'over' the very reasonable number. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. With ideal weather conditions for the hitters (wind blowing out to left-center field) I expect a high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field on Saturday. Kris Bubic has given up five home runs in three August starts for the Royals. While the Cubs are shells of their former selves offensively, they are set up well to have a solid day at the plate on Saturday. Note that Chicago is a better hitting team both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. The Royals bullpen owns an ugly 4.98 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season. Chicago will give Keegan Thompson his first start since May. He fared ok in that start against the Dodgers but still only worked into the fifth inning. With Thompson unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty of the Cubs bullpen, which has been terrible lately, posting a 7.96 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over its last seven games. The Royals meanwhile busted out at the dish with multiple home runs yesterday and I expect some carry-over here. Take the over (8*). |
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08-20-21 | Montreal v. Calgary UNDER 45.5 | 22-28 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Calgary at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Als season-opening rout of the Elks in Edmonton last week. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they look to complete the Alberta sweep in Calgary. Montreal looked terrific on both sides of the football in last Saturday's dominant win. Here, they catch a break as the Stamps will be without QB Bo Levi Mitchell after he suffered a broken fibula back in Week 1 (before inexplicably trying to play through it last week). That leaves the Stamps offense limited here with little experience behind Mitchell. 24-year old Jake Maier out of Cal-Davis is expected to get the start. While he's saying all the right things, it remains to be seen how effective he can be, or how much of the gameplan the Stamps will give him to work with in his first start. Against a much-improved Als pass rush, I don't expect the Stamps to throw Maier completely into the fire. Look for them to run a fairly conservative offense in this one with plenty of runs and short passes. The Als secondary could still turn out to be their weakness but I'm not sure we'll see that unit get exposed this week. Despite the 0-2 start, Calgary's defense has held up exceptionally well through the first two games. I would certainly expect to see that unit rise to the occasion knowing the offense isn't at full strength for this one. The Stamps gave up just one touchdown against the Lions last week with that coming five minutes into the second quarter. From there, they limited B.C. to just a 29-yard fourth quarter field goal. We're seeing lower CFL totals after seven of the first eight games this season stayed 'under' the total. That's likely been a product of the team's seeing no preseason action this year. With the Als playing just their second regular season game, look for another relatively low-scoring affair here. Take the under (9*). |
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08-20-21 | Bengals v. Washington Football Team UNDER 35 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Washington at 8 pm et on Friday. Both of these defenses seem to be considerably ahead of the offenses at this point of the preseason and I think we're dealing with a relatively low total for good reason. QB Joe Burrow didn't play in the Bengals preseason opener against the Bucs and he won't suit up this week either. That will once again leave this game in the hands of backup QB duo Brandon Allen and Kyle Shurmur. Neither lit it up in last week's win in Tampa, combining to complete just 19-of-29 passes for 185 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. With injuries on the offensive line, the Bengals will likely keep the offensive gameplan pretty simple in this one and it's not as if they have any true home run threats in the backfield as you go down the depth chart. The Bengals looked as good as any team defensively in their Week 1 victory, limiting Bucs quarterbacks to 17-of-39 passing for 130 yards while giving up just 29 rushing yards. It might be tough to duplicate that performance here, but I do expect another good effort from the Cincinnati 'D'. Washington looked good on defense against New England last Thursday, not allowing the Pats to reach the end zone until nearly four minutes into the fourth quarter. The Football Team suffered another late defensive breakdown on a 91-yard touchdown run inside the game's final two minutes but that was when they were deep into the depth chart. There's a bit of a QB battle brewing for the backup job behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and I think that could lead to more snaps for Taylor Heinecke and Kyle Allen (who recently returned from injury). Steven Montez was actually the most impressive of the bunch in last week's loss but it's unlikely he'll see as much playing time here. Regardless, with the starters not expected to get stretched out too much in Week 2, I'm not anticipating a big breakout performance from the Washington offense. Take the under (9*). |
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08-20-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Friday. With weather conditions favoring the hitters once again in Cincinnati on Friday night, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Marlins and Reds. Elieser Hernandez will get just his fourth start of the season for the Marlins. He'll be pitching on four days' rest after a solid outing against the Cubs last time out. Keep in mind, he has allowed a home run in each of his three starts this season and two of his three outings have come against bottom-dwelling teams in the Pirates and Cubs. Here, he faces a playoff-hungry Reds club that averages 5.5 runs per game at Great American Ballpark. The Marlins bullpen has of course been a train wreck lately, entering last night's action sporting a collective 8.77 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over their last seven games. Sonny Gray will counter for the Reds as he makes his third straight start on just four days' rest. He owns a 5.44 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at home this season. Behind him is a Reds bullpen that has been extremely overworked, having not had a day off since back on August 2nd. With the Marlins likely to have Jazz Chisholm back in the lineup on Friday, I expect them to put up a better effort at the dish than we saw last night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks v. BC OVER 45.5 | 21-16 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and B.C. at 10 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' has gone 7-1 so far this CFL season and that's affording us with a very low total (relatively speaking) in Thursday's Week 3 opener between the Elks and Lions. The Elks offense has been non-existent so far this season. That's certainly surprising as they opened with a pair of home dates against East Division opponents in the RedBlacks and Alouettes. We did see Edmonton march the football up and down the field against Ottawa but it simply wasn't able to finish drives with 7's rather than 3's. Last week, the Elks certainly appeared to overlook the Als, and paid the price, unable to contend with Montreal's aggressive pass rush. Here, I do expect to see the Elks offense come alive on the fast track at B.C. Place. This is still an offense that features capable leaders at the skill positions on offense in QB Trevor Harris, WR Greg Ellingson and RB James Wilder. With Ellingson in particular coming off a brutal one-catch, one-yard performance last week, I expect a big bounce-back effort here. The Lions, like the Elks, boast incredible talent at the skill positions on offense but QB Mike Reilly's injury issues have held them back so far. They will welcome RB Shaq Cooper to the fold for the first time this season on Thursday, adding another level to what has the potential to be an explosive offense should Reilly be given time in the pocket to operate. As I said, I expect the Elks to break out offensively in this one while the Lions have already shown the ability to thrive in a catch-up role back in Week 1 (they nearly came all the way back from 31-0 down in a 33-29 loss). We don't need a true shootout to cash this ticket as we've been given a low total to work with. Take the over (9*). |
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08-19-21 | Mystics v. Mercury UNDER 164.5 | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Mercury have posted consecutive wins coming out of the Olympic break with both of those games going 'over' the total. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Thursday, however, as they welcome a Washington squad that checks in off back-to-back losses in Las Vegas. We won with the 'over' in the Mystics 10-point loss against the Aces two nights ago. They got baited into a couple of up-tempo affairs against a superior Las Vegas offense. I don't expect them to fall into the same trap here (keeping in mind, the Mercury offense certainly isn't on the same level as the Aces'). Note that Phoenix lost Skylar Diggins-Smith early in its four-point win over Indiana on Tuesday and it remains to be seen whether she'll be able to return or how effective she can be tonight. The key matchup here with be Mystics veteran Tina Charles going up against Brittney Griner. I actually think the two cancel each other out a little bit here as I'm not sure we'll see either go off offensively. While Phoenix is generally known for its offense, it has actually shot below 42% at home this season but has held its own defensively, limiting the opposition to 43.3% shooting here at home. Meanwhile, the Mystics, despite having scored 80 points or more in consecutive games in Las Vegas have shot just 42.5% as a team on the road this season, where they've managed just three wins in 11 games. Take the under (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Marlins are still undecided as to who will take the mound for the opener of this four-game series in Cincinnati. Regardless who does, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair. Cincinnati is coming off consecutive low-scoring games against the Cubs after an offensive explosion on Monday. Weather conditions have been favoring the hitters all week at already hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark and there's more of the same in the forecast for Thursday. Luis Castillo will make his third straight starts on just four days' rest. He's been laboring lately, allowing 11 earned runs on 12 hits over his last two outings, spanning just 10 innings of work. He's been tagged for at least a home run in four consecutive outings. Note that his last two starts against the Marlins have totaled 14 and 13 runs. Here, he'll be facing a Marlins club that is as close to full strength as it has been all season and is coming off a three-game series against Atlanta that saw 36 total runs scored. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that hasn't had a day off since August 2nd. Not surprisingly they've struggled with an ERA north of six and a 1.160 WHIP over their last seven games. Worse still, the Marlins 'pen has posted a collective 8.77 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pitcher's duel between Corbin Burnes and Adam Wainwright to open this series last night and I expect more of the same as Freddy Peralta goes up against Jack Flaherty on Wednesday. Peralta checks in sporting a 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 road starts this season with the 'under' cashing in six of those games. Better still, he owns a 1.88 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts. Note that he'll be facing a Cardinals lineup that is missing a couple of key bats in Paul DeJong (back) and Dylan Carlson (wrist). Jack Flaherty made a triumphant return to the Cards rotation last Friday night as he tossed six shutout innings against the Royals (we won with the 'under'). Flaherty has made four home starts this season, recording an incredible 1.44 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He's faced the Brewers once this season, allowing just four hits over six shutout innings in a 2-0 victory back in May. Both bullpens are reliable enough to trust in this one. Much like last night's affair, I expect this one to have a 'playoff-type' feel and prove low-scoring once again. Take the under (10*). |
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08-18-21 | Angels v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw last night's game get 'over' the total thanks to a late scoring flurry from the Angels. I don't expect 'over' backers to be so fortunate on Wednesday, however. It's interesting to note that the 'over' has gone 3-0-1 so far on the Tigers current homestand but the 'under' remains 37-22-2 here at Comerica Park this season. Weather conditions should favor the pitchers on Wednesday night with the winds blowing in from left. Shohei Ohtani will take the ball for the Angels. Los Angeles has done an excellent job of managing his arm down the stretch as he'll be making just his sixth start since the beginning of July. He's been in excellent form, allowing only six earned runs over his last five starts, working at least six innings in all five of those outings. He faced the Tigers once previously this season, allowing just one earned run over six innings back in June. Tarik Skubal will counter for Detroit. Like Ohtani, he brings excellent form into this start having not allowed a single earned run over 11 innings in his last two outings. The 'under' has cashed in seven of his 12 home starts this season as he has posted a soldi 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at Comerica Park. The Angels bullpen has turned things around after a rough start to the season and has converted 17 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. The Tigers 'pen coughed it up last night but has still posted 15 saves while blowing only six at home. Take the under (6*). |
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08-18-21 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen the 'under' cash in each of the first two games in this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. First, it's worth mentioning that weather conditions favored the pitchers the last two nights but that flips to favor the hitters on Wednesday with warm temperatures and the wind blowing toward left field. Zach Plesac will take the ball for Cleveland. Having not had a day off since July (!), the Indians could certainly use a long outing from him on Wednesday but I'm not sure they'll get it. While he did pitch into the eighth inning in his most recent start, that actually works against him here as he makes his third straight start on just four days' rest. Note that Plesac has posted an ERA north of six over his last three outings and owns a very pedestrian 4.89 ERA in eight road starts this season. He's pitched just once here at Target Field, allowing five earned runs over seven innings in an 8-4 loss last September. Lewis Thorpe will get a spot start for the Twins. In three previous starts this season he has allowed six earned runs in 13 innings, managing to record only four strikeouts to go along with four walks and 13 hits allowed. With Thorpe unlikely to work deep into the game we're likely to see plenty of a Twins bullpen that owns a collective ERA nearing five at home this season. Take the over (6*). |
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08-17-21 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 2-1 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Wil Crowe will take the ball for Pittsburgh. He's in a tough spot here, noting that he has posted a 6.10 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in eight road starts this season, most recently getting lit up for three home runs in his last road outing in Cincinnati. Dodger Stadium could very well play a bit like Great American Ballpark tonight with the wind blowing out to left-center and I expect the homer-happy Dodgers to take advantage of Crowe here. Note that Crowe has been tagged for six home runs in his last three road starts, covering a span of just 14 1/3 innings of work. Behind Crowe is a subpar Pirates bullpen that owns a 5.22 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). David Price will get the nod for the Dodgers. He'll once again be on a short leash here, having yet to last more than 5 2/3 innings in a start this season. He hasn't fared particularly well in his last two home starts, allowing four home runs in 11 innings. With the Dodgers bullpen having not enjoyed a day off in over a week, with some extra innings affairs in the mix, there's reason to believe that the Pirates can scratch together some offense tonight. Note that they were threatening virtually all game long last night but simply couldn't break through. It's been feast or famine for the Buccos at the plate lately but worth noting that they're only a couple of days removed from exploding for 14 runs against the Brewers on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-21 | Mystics v. Aces OVER 170 | Top | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of Sunday's wild 84-83 victory for the Aces. That game stayed 'under' the total and affords us a lower posted total to work with here on Tuesday. I believe it's the wrong move. It took a while, but the Aces got on track offensively after the long Olympic break, scoring 29 points in the fourth quarter of Sunday's victory. Now I expect to see plenty of carry-over from that strong finish here. Note that the Aces average north of 93 points per game at home this season on just shy of 49% shooting. There's certainly room for improvement after Sunday's 84-point effort. I do think the Mystics will be along for the ride in what should be an up-tempo affair on Tuesday night. They'll be in a foul mood after blowing a 14-point lead entering the fourth quarter on Sunday. With Elena Delle Donne still sidelined, I think the Mystics remain a bit underrated offensively with the duo of Ariel Atkins and Myisha Hines-Allen really stepping up as the season has progressed. Washington is unlikely to go away quietly in this one and that should result in a high-scoring affair in Las Vegas. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. Conditions favored the pitchers last night but a couple of big innings ended up spoiling our 'under' play. Here, we have arguably a better pitching matchup with conditions once again favoring the hurlers on a warm, muggy night at Oracle Park. I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair. Marcus Stroman will start for the Mets. He checks in sporting a 2.64 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the road this season. Going back to July 16th, his last six starts have totaled just 5, 7, 2, 8, 6 and 5 runs. Meanwhile, Giants starter Logan Webb is quite simply one of the most underrated starters in baseball right now. He has given up two earned runs or less in 10 consecutive starts, with the 'under' going 7-3 over that stretch. In fact, each of his last five outings have stayed 'under' the total. He has posted an incredible 1.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven home starts this season with all seven of those games staying 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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08-17-21 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12 | 3-7 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with our free play on the 'over' in this matchup last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday. Weather conditions will once again favor the hitters considerably in this one with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out to right-center field. Matt Strahm gets a spot start for the undermanned Padres pitching staff. He's been on the hill for just 5 1/3 innings this season and has allowed opponents to hit well north of .400. Note that he hasn't made a big league start since back in 2019. He faced the Rockies once in starting role that season and was lit up for six earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in a 9-6 loss here at Coors Field. The Padres bullpen is beyond overworked at this point, having logged north of 500 innings on the season and 34 innings over the last seven games alone. We're starting to see some signs of regression as their relief corps has posted a collective 1.47 WHIP over those last seven contests. German Marquez will counter for Colorado. The Padres haven't enjoyed much success against him this season but his two previous starts against them came at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In his last start against San Diego at Coors Field he allowed five earned runs on eight hits over just six innings last August. Note that Marquez has seen his ERA rise from 3.37 to 3.78 since the All-Star break. He'll pitch on just four days' rest on Tuesday after getting torched for seven earned runs over four innings against the Giants last time out. Even if Marquez is sharp tonight, it's unlikely he'll work much more than six innings, opening the door for a Rockies bullpen that has been awful at home this season, posting a collective 5.66 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 12 blown. Take the over (9*). |
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08-17-21 | Wings v. Sky OVER 166.5 | 80-76 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Chicago at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Dallas is coming off a disappointing 21-point rout at the hands of Connecticut as it returned to the court with a thud following the Olympic break. That poor performance did come against one of the league's best defensive teams though and I would expect a solid bounce-back effort from the Wings offense here. Chicago certainly appeared to overlook a Seattle Storm squad that was missing a number of key cogs on Sunday but managed to rally in the fourth quarter to force overtime before ultimately prevailing by a bucket, 87-85. It took a while to get going but once they did, the Sky poured in 26 points in the fourth quarter and I would expect to see some progression from their offense here against one of the league's weakest defensive teams in the Wings. Note that the last time these two teams met back in July they combined to score 191 points in a Wings home victory (we won with Dallas in that game). While this one might not reach that lofty total I do think it will eclipse the very reasonable number the books are offering. Take the over (8*). |
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08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. We saw a very high-scoring game involving the Mets last night as they were blown out at home against the Dodgers. Here, as they hit the road to face the N.L. West leading Giants, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Oracle Park in San Francisco has long been known as a pitcher's park and that should hold true on Monday night with cool temperatures and the wind blowing out - but to the deepest part of the park - favoring the pitchers. Rich Hill will start for the Mets. He has posted a 1.21 WHIP in 10 road starts this season and is trending to the 'under' right now having posted a 2-4-1 o/u mark in his last seven outings. The Giants have been a weaker offensive team against left-handed pitching this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game compared to their overall average of 4.9 runs per game. Kevin Gausman counters for San Francisco. He has posted a stellar 0.97 WHIP at home this season. Gausman checks in having allowed only two earned runs in 11 innings over his last two outings. Note that the Mets have scored more than five runs in a game just once since July 23rd. The probability of an offensive breakout here is relatively low. Take the under (8*). |
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08-16-21 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Neither Cal Quantrill or Griffin Jax are household names, but both have been pitching exceptionally well lately and I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair featuring the two young starters on Monday. The Indians are of course coming off an 11-run outburst in Detroit yesterday. Performances like that have been few and far between for this fading club lately though, as they had been held to four runs or less in four of their last five games prior to yesterday's contest. Better than their offensive production was the fact that starter Triston McKenzie gave them eight strong innings, meaning only closer Emmanuel Clase (who hadn't pitched since August 10th) was used out of the bullpen, giving that group a much-needed rest (Cleveland hasn't had a day off since July 26th). Cal Quantrill is locked in for the Indians right now having allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive starts. He's worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight and seven of his last eight outings. He enters this outing sporting a 3.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight nighttime starts, with the 'under' going 5-2-1 in those contests. Griffin Jax was shaky in his big league debut back in early July but has settled down considerably since, allowing just six earned runs in 20 1/3 innings over his last four outings. In his most recent start, Jax worked a career high six innings and struck out 10 against a red hot White Sox lineup. Behind Jax is an improving Twins bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 3.72 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over their last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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08-16-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The ball has been flying all over Great American Ballpark since mid-July but with the Reds coming off a week long road trip perhaps a lot of bettors have forgotten about their strong 11-4 o/u trend here at home. Over their last two homestands, the Reds have seen their games reach totals of 17, 11, 8, 26, 7, 7, 11, 8, 16, 12, 11, 11, 10, 14 and 5 runs - good for an average of 11.6 runs per game. With weather conditions once again favoring the hitters on Monday night, look for that 'over' trend to continue. The Cubs aren't scoring with much consistency right now but they did prove they're not completely lifeless at the dish when they plated 10 runs this past Friday night in Miami. A trip to Cincinnati could be good for them as they get to face Reds starter Wade Miley on Monday, noting that they've already seen him three times this season and have had some success, racking up 22 hits and eight walks in just 16 innings. They faced him once last year here in Cincinnati as well, chasing him before the end of the second inning but not before scoring five earned runs. I realize that this isn't the same Cubs squad post-trade deadline but there are still plenty of holdovers capable of giving Miley a rough ride on Monday. Rookie Justin Steele is one of the Cubs top pitching prospects but this isn't an ideal second big league start after he gave up a pair of home runs and three earned runs (while striking out just one) in five innings against the Brewers last week. Note that the Reds have scored at least six runs in eight of their last 12 games, plating 10 or more runs on three different occasions over that stretch. With Steele unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty of a Chicago bullpen that is in absolute shambles right now. Cubs relievers have posted a collective 8.78 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (6*). |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball First Five Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Los Angeles and New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. After consecutive extra innings affairs, we'll look to avoid the bullpens in this one and play the 'first five innings' under the total. Max Scherzer will get his third start with the Dodgers after his most recent outing was cut short due to rain. Scherzer should have a live arm after working just 3 1/3 innings before the rain moved in earlier this week against the Phillies. Scherzer has not surprisingly pitched well in Dodger Blue, allowing just two earned runs while striking out 16 and walking just one in 10 1/3 innings of work since joining Los Angeles. He checks in sporting a 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road this season. The Mets are hoping Carlos Carrasco can pick them up after back-to-back one-run extra inning losses. After pitching reasonably well in his first two starts of the season he had a rough outing last time out. It was really the story of a bad start as he gave up consecutive singles before Juan Soto touched him up for a three-run home run to start the game. In limited work this season, Carrasco has posted an impressively-low 29.0% hard-hit ball percentage to go along with a 48.4% ground ball percentage. I look for him to bounce back here. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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08-15-21 | Panthers v. Colts OVER 34 | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers have a bit of a unique position battle going on at quarterback with P.J. Walker and Will Grier fighting for the backup job to Sam Darnold. Head coach Matt Rhule has indicated he may only keep two quarterbacks on the roster which means one of Walker or Grier could be left without a job at the end of the preseason. Here, I look for Carolina to go with a more pass-heavy attack than we're accustomed to seeing in the preseason as Rhule looks to evaluate his quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Colts have a QB battle of their own with Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger fighting for the starting job - at least until Carson Wentz returns from injury. All indications are that both have impressed at training camp. We should see both get extended playing time in this one as head coach Frank Reich looks for some clarity as to who deserves the starting job in Week 1. This has certainly been a low-scoring preseason so far and that helps keep this total at a very reasonable number on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 37 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Oakland at 9 pm et on Saturday. It's easy to forget that both of these teams have relatively high-scoring preseason track records after last year's exhibition schedule was scrapped entirely. That's not a real surprise as neither defense is great to begin with but get into the second and third levels in the depth chart and there are some real holes. There's a reason that this is one of the highest posted totals on the Week 1 NFLX board. Both sides do boast significant depth at the skill positions on offense. Perhaps one of the lone exceptions is the wide receiver position for Seattle. With that being said, that should lead to the Seahawks airing it out a little more than you might expect in this one as they evaluate the wide receivers that are battling for the number three spot behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I like the QB rotations in this one and on the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, I'm anticipating a fairly high-scoring contest between these NFC-AFC West Division counterparts on Saturday night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
CFL o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Edmonton at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've seen plenty of low-scoring games to open this CFL season - likely a product of their being no preseason this year. Here, I do think we'll see a little more offense as the Elks already have a game under their belts while the Als had an extra week of practice, and I expect them to be considerably stronger offensively than defensively once again. The Als certainly improved their pass rush in the offseason, with their big acquisition being former Elk Almondo Sewell. However, I do feel that Elks QB Trevor Harris should be able to get the ball out quickly enough to his talented group of wide receivers to find some offensive success in this one. There was plenty of rust last week as the Elks moved the football but couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Against a weak Als secondary, there's reason to believe some of those field goal drives will turn into touchdowns here. The Als offense is virtually intact from 2019. There is top talent at all the skill positions, led by QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback. While the RedBlacks below average offense wasn't able to do much against Edmonton last week, I'm confident we'll see the Als open things up here. Keep in mind, when these two teams last met in the 2019 playoffs, we saw 66 total points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in this matchup last night but despite a well-pitched game from both starters we still had an opportunity to cash with the potential 'over-clinching' run at the plate in the ninth inning. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play, noting that weather conditions once again favor the hitters in Philadelphia. Luis Castillo gets the start for Cincinnati. We won with the 'over' in this most recent start - a 9-3 loss in Cleveland on Monday. Castillo will once again pitch on just four days' rest on Saturday - the third time he will have done so in his last four outings. He's now been tagged for five home runs in his last three starts and as I mentioned, conditions should favor the hitters at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. Castillo checks in sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in eight of his 12 road starts this season. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that held up well last night but has generally struggled this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.51 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 13 blown on the road this season. Note that the Reds haven't had a day off since August 2nd. Matt Moore will get a spot start for the Phillies on Saturday. He's generally been awful this season, posting a 9.30 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five home starts. With Moore averaging just over four innings per start we're likely to see plenty of the Phillies bullpen. Their relief corps has posted a collective 4.82 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with 15 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-21 | Toronto v. Winnipeg UNDER 47.5 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. We've seen four of the first five CFL games this season stay 'under' the total - partly due to the fact that there were no preseason games this year. I expect that trend to continue for at least one more night on Friday. Look for Toronto to make every effort to effectively shorten this game by leaning on their rushing attack led by standout RB John White. With the Bombers missing elite run-stopper Steve 'Stove' Richardson, there's reason to believe the Boatmen can find some success moving the chains on the ground and ultimately putting together long, clock-churning drives. However, Toronto does have a relatively limited passing attack right now. Despite last week's victory, we didn't really see many big splash plays from QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson and the pass game. While the Bombers do employ an inexperienced secondary, I'm not convinced the Argos are well-equipped to take advantage. Winnipeg turned in a sharp offensive performance against Hamilton last week but should have its hands full against a revamped Argos defense that held Calgary to only 20 points last week, and has gotten healthier since. Take the under (8*). |
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08-13-21 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Cardinals are coming off a high-scoring affair to close out their series in Pittsburgh yesterday. Keep in mind, weather conditions were favorable for the hitters in that one as it was hot and humid with the wind blowing out. We're likely to see a different story on Friday with conditions favoring the pitchers and I look for Jack Flaherty and Mike Minor to take advantage. Flaherty will of course be returning to the rotation for the first time since May. There's no question he's ready to come back, keeping in mind his injury was actually to his left side rather than his throwing side. All indications are that he could have returned in the series in Pittsburgh but the Cards didn't want him hitting in an N.L. park. Here, he'll be able to focus solely on pitching and should fare well against a Royals club he has owned, facing them once in each of the last three seasons, allowing just two earned runs in 19 innings of work. While Flaherty isn't expected to be on a pitch count for this one, we could still see plenty of the Cardinals bullpen. That's not necessarily a bad thing as they've recorded a collective 2.40 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown in 56 1/3 innings of work in interleague play this season. Entering yesterday's action they had posted a 1.02 WHIP over their last seven contests. Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. After a long stretch of starting exclusively on four days' rest he has had a little more time off to rest his arm lately. He's struggled in his last couple of starts but both of those came on the road. Here at home, while his ERA north of five leaves a lot to be desired, he has posted a respectable 1.18 WHIP. In his last three home outings he has allowed eight earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. Note that the Cardinals check in averaging just 3.6 runs per game against left-handed pitching this season. Behind Minor is an improving Royals bullpen that enjoyed an off day yesterday and has posted a collective 3.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last seven games. Like the Cardinals, the Royals 'pen has also thrived in interleague play, recording a 2.56 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with six saves converted and only two blown. Take the under (10*). |
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08-13-21 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 6-8 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in the A's 17-0 rout of the Indians yesterday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they continue their road trip in Texas on Friday. Cole Irvin gets the start for the A's. He's actually been getting stronger as the season goes on. He'll be facing the Rangers for the fourth time this season but his most recent outing against them was his best as he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings. Note that Texas has plated just 18 runs over its last nine games combined. Irvin has been at his best on the road, recording a 3.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the 'under' cashing in eight of his 10 starts. The A's bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 0.99 ERA and 0.73 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over their last seven games. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He's been a completely different pitcher here at the friendly confines of Globe Life Field. In 11 home outings he has posted a 2.51 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He brings fine form into this starts having recorded a 3.37 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last three outings with the 'under' cashing in two of those. He last faced the A's back on July 1st in Oakland and didn't allow a single run over four innings. Behind Dunning is a Rangers bullpen that has also performed much better at home, sporting a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Take the under (8*). |
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08-13-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While this looks like a fine starting pitching matchup at first glance, a deeper look leads me to believe we could be in for a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday night. The Phillies are actually coming off a low-scoring series against the Dodgers despite the fact that weather conditions certainly favored the hitters with heat, high humidity and the wind blowing out. That remains the case on Friday. Tyler Mahle has been pitching well for the Reds lately. However, here he'll be making his second straight start on four days' rest after working seven innings last time out. He's allowed just three home runs in 65 2/3 innings of work on the road this season but 15 in 58 innings pitched at home. Tonight, I would anticipate Citizens Bank Park playing a lot more like Great American Ballpark than usual due to the weather conditions. Mahle has faced the Phillies twice previously, allowing five earned runs including three home runs in just six innings. The Reds bullpen has held up well lately but can it really be trusted? Cincinnati's relief corps enters this game sporting a 5.28 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with 19 saves converted but 17 blown in night games this season. Zack Wheeler is a legitimate N.L. Cy Young contender but like Mahle, is in a bit of a tough spot here as he makes his third straight start on four days' rest. When you consider he's pitched at least into the eighth inning in each of his last two outings you can understand why his arm might not have quite as much life in it on Friday. We actually won with Wheeler in his last start as he tossed a complete game shutout against the Mets. Here, however, he'll face a Reds club that is heating up having scored 18 runs in their last two games and it's worth noting that Wheeler is by no means invincible as he had allowed seven earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his two previous starts before last Sunday's stellar outing. The Phillies bullpen hasn't been particularly sharp at home this season, recording a collective 4.82 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. In night games it has converted 17 saves while blowing 12. Take the over (9*). |
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08-13-21 | Arsenal v. Brentford UNDER 2.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brentford and Arsenal at 3 pm et on Friday. These two clubs have a lot to prove, albeit for different reasons, as they open the English Premier League season on Friday afternoon. For Arsenal, it can ill afford to drop three points against newly-promoted Brentford. There have been enough trying times for the Gunners in recent years, it will certainly be determined to at the very least stay level following a poor preseason showing. As for the Bees, this is obviously a triumphant day as it finds itself playing an EPL match for the first time in over 70 years. Brentford will without question find the going much tougher at this level than it did in the English Championship, where it sealed its promotion with a two-goal showing against Swansea City back in May. Staying level with Arsenal would obviously serve as a major victory for the Bees in front of their home faithul. Regardless, I feel we're in for a tightly-contested cagey affair on Friday with goals coming at a premium. Take the under (5*). |
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08-12-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Thursday. The Giants just wrapped up a two-game sweep of the lowly D'Backs last night as they pounded away on an awful Arizona pitching staff. I expect they'll find the going a little tougher on Thursday as they face Rockies All-Star starter German Marquez. Meanwhile, the Rockies offense was non-existent in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Astros (they scored a grand total of one run). Expect more of the same against Giants improving young starter Logan Webb. Marquez got roughed up by the Giants in three starts earlier this season, but all three came before the second week of May, when the veteran right-hander was struggling mightily out of the gate. He's settled down since and enters this start sporting a 2.52 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 14 nighttime starts this season. Over his last two outings he's allowed just six hits and two earned runs in 12 innings of work. Speaking to his consistency, he has worked at least six innings in nine consecutive starts. I like the fact that he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest for the second consecutive start here. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rockies bullpen that is always a disaster waiting to happen, having posted a collective ERA north of five and a WHIP hovering around 1.50. Logan Webb will counter for San Francisco. He's quietly been one of the best pitchers on the Giants elite staff this season. Like Marquez, Webb got off to a shaky start this season and had a couple of rough early outings against these same Rockies. However, since giving up six earned runs in a start against Colorado back on May 5th, Webb has allowed two earned runs or less in nine consecutive outings. He's been outstanding here at home this season, posting a stellar 1.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts with all six staying 'under' the total. He's lasted six innings in each of his last three starts and like Marquez, has the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. While the Giants bullpen has held up well, it's certainly worth noting that they haven't had an off day since back on July 26th. I'm not interested in testing the waters with that relief corps here, so we'll instead play the first five innings only. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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08-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Premier Play. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Blue Jays doing most of the heavy lifting. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Jose Berrios will make his third start with his new team. He's been lights out in the first two, allowing just one earned run while striking out 13 in 12 innings of work. He seemed to figure out the Angels lineup pretty well the last time he faced them in July (as a member of the Twins), allowing just two unearned runs over seven innings in a 2-1 loss. Note that Berrios has been at his best at night this season, recording a 2.26 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 20 starts. Behind Berrios is a Blue Jays bullpen that has been pitching well lately, recording a 2.05 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over their last seven games. They've converted 14 saves while blowing only five on the road this season. Shohei Ohtani will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be making just his fourth start since July 19th and first in over a week so there are no real concerns of a tired arm here. Note that Ohtani has posted a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine home starts this season with the 'under' cashing in five of those games. While the Angels bullpen has struggled all season, the good news is Ohtani has lasted at least six innings in six of his last seven starts so we may not need a great deal of help from the Los Angeles relief corps here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-11-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Last night's game between these two teams found its way 'over' the total thanks to extra innings. Tonight, I'm anticipating a more comfortable victory for 'over' backers. Spencer Howard gets the nod for Texas. He was the key piece coming back to the Rangers in the Kyle Gibson deal. While Howard has the potential to be a quality starter in the Rangers rotation for years to come, in the short-term he's likely to continue to struggle. Howard hasn't made it beyond the fourth inning in any of his eight starts this season. He made six starts during his rookie season a year ago and lasted five innings just once. That spells trouble as the Rangers bullpen has been awful on the road, posting a 5.36 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with only six saves converted and six blown entering last night's action. While they did eventually record a save in last night's game that was only after coughing up the lead in the ninth inning (the Mariners probably should have won the game in walk-off fashion as they loaded the bases with no outs) and then also giving up a run in the 10th. Tyler Anderson will counter for Seattle. While he's pitched reasonably well this season, I do think the Rangers can scratch together enough offense against him to help this one 'over' the total. Note that Anderson will be making his home debut for the Mariners after coming over prior to the trade deadline. The last time he pitched here at T-Mobile Park he was tagged for four earned runs in just four innings in a start last September. The Rangers have been a better offensive club against southpaws this season, averaging just shy of four runs per game. Take the over (7*). |
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08-11-21 | Brewers v. Cubs OVER 10 | 10-0 | Push | 0 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the second game of yesterday's double-header between these two teams and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Interestingly, that game last night featured just one total run after five innings (in a seven-inning game) but still found its way 'over' the total of 8.5. Weather conditions are once again expected to favor the hitters on Wednesday night with the wind strongly blowing out to right-center field. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for the Brewers. He'll be starting on just four days' rest for the first time since April on Wednesday. Note that he's allowed a home run in each of his last two starts. That's after giving up a grand total of just two home runs in his previous 16 outings. I'll also point out that he has topped out at six strikeouts in his last three starts. That's the longest such streak of the season where he didn't record more than seven strikeouts. Behind Burnes is a Brewers bullpen that has hit the wall a little bit lately, posting a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over their last seven contests with three converted saves to go along with three blown. Jake Arrieta will counter for Chicago. He's been a train wreck lately, allowing 16 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of only 11 1/3 innings. He's given up at least one home run in seven straight starts and allowed a whopping three in his most recent outing. The Brewers will be getting their fourth look at Arrieta this season, having scored a whopping 28 runs in those previous three contests. The Cubs bullpen simply isn't the same unit is was a few weeks ago. Chicago's relief corps has posted a collective 5.33 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with only one converted save over its last seven games. Take the over (9*). |
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08-11-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Premier O/U Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday night. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams in last night's series-opener but that was to be expected with Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola toeing the rubber. Here, we can anticipate a much different story to unfold. David Price will get the start for Los Angeles. After giving up two home runs in his most recent start (he's allowed two home runs in two of his last three outings) I won't be surprised if he gets caught trying to be a little 'too perfect' on Wednesday and the Phillies certainly have a lineup capable of punishing him for that. Note that Price has posted a 4.70 ERA over his last three outings and has topped out at four strikeouts in seven of his eight starts this season - clearly a shell of his former self. While he's pitched well in his career against Philadelphia, he hasn't faced the Phils since 2018. Here, he'll be pitching on just four days' rest, noting the last time he did that he allowed three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 9-6 loss to the lowly Rockies. The Dodgers bullpen will likely get plenty of work with Price averaging just a shade over four innings per start on the road this season. That relief corps has struggled a bit on the road this season, posting a 3.78 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 10 blown (entering last night's action). Kyle Gibson will get his third start as a member of the Phillies and will pitch on just four days' rest for the second straight outing. While he's pitched well in his last two outings, those came against the Pirates and Mets. He'll be taking a step up in class here, noting that he was tagged for five earned runs including three home runs over just five innings in his last start against the Dodgers last August. Behind Gibson is a Phillies bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with 14 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Finally, I'll note that weather conditions are expected to favor the hitters on Wednesday (as if often the case this time of year in Philadelphia) with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out to right-center field. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros had a tough time in a four-game series against the Twins from Thursday-Sunday, scoring only 16 runs in dropping three of four contests. Perhaps that letdown was to be expected after a tough road trip that took them through Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles, during which they enjoyed plenty of offensive success. Following a much-needed off day on Monday, I expect them to take their frustrations out on the Rockies on Tuesday, helping this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Jon Gray will get the start for the visiting Rockies. He's quite simply been a different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, recording a 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in five of his nine outings. Here, he's in a bit of a tough spot as he makes his fourth start since July 25th. We saw some signs of wear in his most recent start as he was tagged for eight hits in six innings - his highest hit total allowed since May 17th. Gray has had previous success against the Astros but has never faced them here in Houston. Behind Gray is an awful Rockies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with only eight saves converted and eight blown on the road this season. Over their last seven games they've recorded an ERA north of six. Jake Odorizzi will look to right the ship as he takes the ball for the Astros. He allowed a whopping four home runs in his most recent start and has been tagged for eight long balls in total in his last four outings. The 'over' has cashed in four of his six home starts as he's recorded a 5.56 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. While I do think he can turn things around to a certain extent in this start, it's highly unlikely that he'll shut the Rockies offense down completely. Despite Colorado's miserable road record this season, it has still managed to average north of three runs per game away from Coors Field and I believe that might be all we need from them to help this one 'over' the total. The Astros have a fine bullpen but I will point out that for whatever reason they've struggled in interleague play, posting a collective 6.05 ERA and 1.77 WHIP, albeit with a small sample size of only 44 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-21 | Brewers v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. With ideal hitting conditions at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night (wind is expected to be blowing out to center field) I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Brewers and Cubs. Aaron Ashby will get his second start of the season for Milwaukee. His first came against Chicago as well and it didn't go swimmingly. Ashby was tagged for seven runs, four of them earned, and didn't manage to get out of the first inning. While it's tough to envision this start going any worse, it is certainly worth noting that the Cubs have been a better offensive club both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. While they're certainly not the same team they were pre-deadline, I still believe they're capable of a breakout offensive performance here and will certainly be eager to take their frustrations out on the Brewers pitching staff after facing a tough slate of starters in recent days. Behind Ashby is a Brewers bullpen that enters Tuesday's action sporting a collective 5.54 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over their last seven games with three saves converted and three blown. They've only managed to convert 11-of-20 save opportunities on the road this season. Alec Mills will counter for Chicago. After a strong start to the season he's wobbled a little lately, allowing 17 hits in 12 innings over his last two starts. Note that Mills has allowed a home run in each of his last three outings here at Wrigley Field and again, with ideal hitting conditions on Tuesday we could certainly see Mills fall victim to a long ball or two. The Brewers will be getting their fourth look at Mills going back to last August and the lone previous time they faced him this season, they chased him after four innings but not before he gave up a pair of earned runs including a home run, walked three and didn't strike out a single batter. The Cubs bullpen, like the Brewers, has struggled lately, recording a collective 5.60 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over its last seven games. While Chicago's relief corps has been solid at home this season, we're not talking about the same group that we were before the trade deadline. Take the over (8*). |
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08-10-21 | Ferencvaros v. Slavia Praha OVER 2.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Slavia Prague and Ferencvaros at 1 pm et on Tuesday. Slavia Prague was stunned by a 2-0 score in the first leg of this Champions League qualifying matchup last week. Back at home, I certainly expect it to answer back but will it be enough to win on aggregate - it obviously has a serious uphill battle down two goals without an away goal to its credit. Needless to say, we should see Slavia Prague come out with an attacking mindset here. Ferencvaros is unlikely to roll over or settle into a defensive shell, despite the 2-0 advantage. Keep in mind, it has scored a whopping 13 goals in just five matches in the 2021 campaign. Going back to 2020 we find that it managed to find the back of the net in difficult matchups against the likes of Juventus, Barcelona and Dinamo Zagreb. Note that Slavia Prague remains vulnerable at the back-end with two key defenders sidelined, Ondrej Kudela due to a UEFA-imposed suspension and David Hovorka as a result of injury. If it wants to advance beyond this stage it will likely need to topple this total all on its own. Thankfully, that's not a requirement, however, with Ferencvaros likely to ripple the net at least once as well. Take the over (7*). |
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08-09-21 | Reds v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Reds 'over' yesterday afternoon but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they open a road trip in Cleveland on Monday. First, it's worth noting that the wind is expected to be blowing out to right-center field in this one, ideal conditions for the bats at Progressive Field. Luis Castillo will take the ball for the Reds. While he has certainly turned things around with a terrific stretch of performances, this is by no means an ideal spot as he starts on just four days' rest for the third consecutive outing. While the Indians struggled against Castillo in their first look at him back in 2019, they've figured him out since, scoring seven earned runs in just nine innings against him since last season, including a 9-2 victory here in Cleveland back in May. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that really struggled in night games this season, posting a collective 5.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 16 blown. Sam Hentges will get a spot start for the Indians. He's yet to find much success at the big league level and the jury is still out as to whether he's capable of rounding into a major league starter. In three home starts this season, the left-hander has recorded an ugly 9.31 ERA and 2.38 WHIP. That's despite tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings here in his big league debut back in mid-May. Hentges is averaging just under 3 2/3 innings per start and now faces a Reds club that has averaged a whopping seven runs per game over the last week. While the Indians bullpen has been solid this season, it has struggled in interleague play, recording a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with only three saves converted and four blown in 56 2/3 innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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08-08-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. This has been a high-scoring series all the way with the first three games totaling 11, 10 and 14 runs. I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Bryse Wilson will get a third straight turn in the rotation for the Pirates. He's held up alright over his last couple of outings, allowing only one earned run in eight innings. However, he's struck out only two while walking three so it's not as if he's really fooling anyone. In three daytime starts this season he owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP and faces a Reds club that has plated 46 runs over its last six games. With Wilson averaging just over four innings per start we should see plenty of a Pirates bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.03 ERA and 1.35 WHIP on the road (entering last night's action) and hasn't had a day off since July 26th. Tyler Mahle will counter for Cincinnati. He has struggled all season at Great American Ballpark, posting a 6.18 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in eight of his 10 starts. With Mahle averaging just a shade over five innings per start at home the Reds bullpen, which has recorded a collective 5.88 ERA and 1.44 WHIP here in Cincinnati (entering last night's action) should be pressed into action once again. Take the over (6*). |
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08-07-21 | Ottawa v. Edmonton Elks UNDER 46.5 | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ottawa and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. Full writeups will return for Week 2. I’m not expecting a lot of offensive fireworks as the RedBlacks travel to Edmonton to face the Elks on Saturday. There are virtually no household names on the RedBlacks offense and while new head coach Paul LaPolice will squeeze all he can out of this group, it won’t happen in Week 1 off no preseason. Edmonton has an explosive offense led by QB Trevor Harris but again, with no preseason games I’m not convinced we’ll see the offense come out firing on all cylinders here. The Elks defense should be better than most expect and they can certainly handle this matchup on Saturday. Take the under (6*). |
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08-07-21 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the first five innings 'over' in Mariners starter Chris Flexen's most recent outing. He actually pitched well in that game, allowing only two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work against the Rays. Road success hasn't been the norm for Flexen this season, however, as he's posted a 5.44 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight starts away from home. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 in his eight previous road starts. Behind Flexen is a Mariners bullpen that has already coughed up the first two games in this series and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with 15 saves converted and 13 blown away from home this season. With Flexen averaging just 5.6 innings per start on the road this season, we should see plenty of the M's relief corps today. Andrew Heaney will counter for New York. His Yankees debut did not go well at all as he was lit up for four home runs (all four were solo shots so the damage could have been worse) in just four innings of work against the Orioles. Now he makes a second straight start on just four days' rest and faces a familiar Mariners lineup (from his days with the Angels in the A.L. West) that has torched him for eight earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings this season. Heaney didn't issue a walk in his last start but command has been an issue for the left-hander. After giving up those four home runs last time out, look for him to try to be a little too perfect today and that could lead to plenty of Mariners base-runners. With the Yankees having not had a day off since July 26th, their bullpen comes in overworked. Keep in mind, this is a bullpen that has posted a 3.85 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with only 11 saves converted and eight blown at home (entering last night's action), with that ERA rising to 4.50 in day games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-05-21 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg UNDER 51.5 | Top | 6-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The 2021 CFL opener features a rematch of the last CFL game that was played - the 2019 Grey Cup between the Blue Bombers and Tiger-Cats. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair than most as these two offenses take some time to settle into a groove after no preseason games and no real game action since that title showdown in 2019. The Blue Bombers return most of the key pieces from that Grey Cup winning squad. With that being said, they're the underdog for a reason in this one. RB Andrew Harris isn't expected to play on Thursday and while he is supported by a couple of capable backs, his absence certainly can't be overlooked. Keep in mind the Bombers are ushering in a new offensive era in some respects with former CFL quarterback Buck Pierce taking over the offensive coordinator reins from Paul LaPolice, who has moved on to Ottawa to take on a head coaching role. LaPolice squeezed every bit of potential he could out of this offense as the season went on in 2019. I simply question whether we'll see an explosive attack right out of the gates here in 2021 with what I would consider a less-than-imposing wide receiving corps at Collaros' disposal. Defensively, the Bombers are set up well with a cohesive unit that boasts plenty of returning starters keyed by Willie Jefferson - the league's reigning Most Outstanding Defensive Player. This is a group that enters the new season with a chip on its shoulder after some felt it 'fluked' its way to a Grey Cup championship. I'm not on board with that line of thinking - this defense absolutely terrorized Dane Evans in the 2019 Grey Cup, camping out in the backfield and will now face a Hamilton offensive line that no longer has Ryker Matthews protecting Jeremiah Masoli's blind side. With many of the Bombers defensive players training together in the offseason (a long one at that), this is a group that should hit the ground running on Thursday night. The Tiger-Cats need to restock the cupboard in some sense defensively but there's still plenty of talent to go around, and I don't think this is a bad opening night matchup for them to get their legs back under them. Simoni Lawrence is still on board to lead the defense - we're talking about perhaps the best-coached defense in the entire CFL so I certainly wouldn't expect it to lay an egg on Thursday. Offensively, there's not a true QB controversy in Hamilton but starter Jeremiah Masoli has to feel a bit of pressure as he opens the campaign with backup Dane Evans breathing down his neck. While the duo of Brandon Banks and Bralon Addison is electric, I expect the Blue Bombers to do what they can to take away the big hitters down the field and Hamilton won't shy away from pounding the football with newly-acquired feature back Don Jackson and Sean Thomas-Erlington back healthy. There's a lot of familiarity between these two teams with both rosters remaining relatively intact and with so much time to gameplan for the season-opener following no preseason games, I think we'll see a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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08-05-21 | Twins v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in Houston on Thursday night. The Twins were of course sellers prior to the trade deadline and are now left with a lineup that could probably fit in at triple-A ball. With that being said, they are coming off a high-scoring series against the Reds as they abused an awful Cincinnati bullpen. They're not likely to be so fortunate here, however, as the Astros 'pen has posted a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. It would certainly be understandable if the Astros lacked some focus at the plate in this one as they return home after a long road trip that included stops against the division rival Mariners in Seattle and two of the N.L.'s best teams in the Giants and Dodgers. Griffin Jax will take the ball for Minnesota. He was slated to start yesterday but that was pushed back a day allowing him to pitch on a full five days' rest here. Each of his first three big league starts have come on the road so he's battle-tested in a sense. After struggling in his first outing he's settled down to allow just two earned runs in nine innings over his last two starts. This will be just his fourth outing since July 3rd so his arm is fresh. I expect him to perhaps go deeper into this game than he has previously, having never gone more than five innings. He'll have the advantage of facing the Astros for the first time. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He's faced the Twins twice during his career and has managed them well on both occasions, allowing just two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. He'll be making his fourth straight start on at least five days' rest. While his command hasn't been there over his last couple of starts he's made up for it by allowing just four hits while striking out 10 in 11 innings of work. The Twins are a weaker offensive club both on the road and against left-handed pitching and I don't envision them inflicting much damage against Valdez here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Thursday night in Chicago. Rookie Daniel Lynch gets the nod for the Royals. He's pitched reasonably well since returning to the big leagues in July but we're talking about a small sample size of just two starts. He's recorded an ugly 46.3% hard-hit ball percentage this season, more than 7% higher than the MLB average. That's not to mention his 30% line drive percentage - also around 7% north of the MLB average. The White Sox will be in bounce-back mode on Thursday and get their second look at Lynch this season after chasing him after scoring a whopping eight earned runs in just 2/3 of an inning back in early May. Behind Lynch is a Royals bullpen that has posted a 5.19 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season. Veteran Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for the White Sox. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest for the second straight start. The last time he did that he allowed six runs, three of them earned, and lasted only 2 2/3 innings against the Astros back in June. He enters this start having been blasted for six home runs over his last two outings, including three in a start against these same Royals last week. In nine starts against division opponents this season, Keuchel has posted a 6.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in seven of those games. The White Sox bullpen has logged just 342 innings this season so should be holding up well at this stage of the season. However, they've managed to convert just one save while blowing three in the last seven games alone and check in with a less than impressive 4.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 15 saves converted and 11 blown at home this season. Take the over (7*). |
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08-05-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Cleveland and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Truth be told, the Blue Jays should have a good shot at toppling this total all on their own based on the way they're seeing the ball right now. They'll be facing Triston McKenzie for the first time on Thursday but I don't expect the right-hander to have any sort of advantage. Note that he'll be pitching on just four days' rest for the second time in his last three starts. He's been lit up for six home runs in 14 innings over his last three outings, allowing a whopping 17 hits and 13 earned runs along the way. He checks in sporting a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in eight away starts this season. Ross Stripling has held up well over his last couple of starts for Toronto but he's been anything but consistent this season. He enters this start having recorded a 6.93 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in eight nighttime starts with the 'over' cashing in five of those games. The Indians only managed to score one earned run off of him over five innings the last time they saw him back in May, but he had the advantage of pitching on 10 days' rest on that occasion. Here, he'll be making his third start since July 25th. Take the first five innings over (6*). |
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08-05-21 | Celtic v. Jablonec UNDER 2.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -122 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between FK Baumit Jablonec and Celtic at 11:45 am et on Thursday. Celtic desperately needs to avoid a defeat in this Europa League qualification match on Thursday as it comes off a rare opening day loss in the Scottish Premiership last weekend. Having also just been ousted from Champions League qualifying last week, morale isn't particularly high for the Scottish side. This is by no means a gimme as it travels to the Czech Republic for the first leg of this matchup on Thursday. Goals haven't been easy to come by for Jablonec, which is coming off a 3-0 drubbing at the hands of Mlada Boleslav last Saturday. While Celtic is by no means a defensive powerhouse, I'm not convinced Jablonec is well-positioned to take advantage on Thursday. The Czech side has been known to go with just one attacker up front and I suspect it will be content to allow Celtic to control the bulk of the possession on Thursday, and wait for an opportunity to strike in transition. With neither of these sides instilling a great deal of confidence on the attack, it's difficult to envision a scenario where either finds the back of the net more than once. Keeping in mind this if the first leg of this matchup, I'm anticipating a cagey, low-scoring affair on Thursday. Take the under (10*). |
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08-04-21 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This one doesn't scream pitcher's duel with Matt Harvey taking on Jameson Taillon but I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in the Bronx nonetheless. Harvey has quietly turned things around, tossing 18 1/3 shutout innings over his last three starts. He hasn't issued a walk in his last two outings and hasn't given up a home runs since back on June 25th against Toronto - six starts ago. He's always had the Yankees number, most recently allowing just three earned runs on six hits over 12 innings against them since 2019, including one start this season resulting in a 4-2 Orioles victory. Jameson Taillon has posted a 3.26 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 11 home starts this season and enters this start in fine form having given up just one earned run over his last three outings, covering a span of 18 innings (you would have to go back four starts to find the last time he gave up a home run). We saw a slugfest in this same matchup last night with the Yankees bats finally waking up to score 13 runs. Keep in mind, they had scored four runs or less in 11 straight games prior to that. Meanwhile, the Orioles have been a weaker offensive team both on the road and against right-handed pitching this season. While both bullpens have been somewhat unreliable there's reason for optimism here noting that the O's relief corps has converted 13 saves while blowing only six on the road and the Yankees 'pen has posted 12 saves compared to only three blown against A.L. East opponents. Take the under (6*). |
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08-04-21 | Benfica v. Spartak Moscow UNDER 2.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Benfica and Spartak Moscow at 1 pm et on Wednesday. This match has all the makings of a low-scoring encounter as these two squads do battle in the first leg of their Champions League qualifier. Spartak Moscow already has two league matches under its belt in Russia, managing just a single goal - that coming from the penalty spot. There's little reason to expect a sudden offensive outburst from Rui Vitoria's squad here as it hosts favored Benfica. The Portuguese side is still getting its legs under it following four preseason league matches. Benfica won't have all hands on deck for this one with newly-acquired Ukrainian standout Roman Yaremchuk not yet acclimated. Here, we can expect Benfica to be content should it find an away goal ahead of hosting the second leg of this matchup next week. I simply feel that two goals from either squad will be a bridge too far on Wednesday. Take the under 2.5 goals (10*). |
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08-03-21 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. The Braves have seen just three of their last nine games go 'over' the total and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night in St. Louis. While Atlanta has hit better against left-handed pitching this season it has actually scored a grand total of just one run in its last two games against southpaw starters. Also note that it has already seen Cards newly-acquired left-hander Jon Lester twice this season and has managed to score just four earned runs in 10 2/3 innings with the 'under' cashing in both of those games. Lester enters this start on extended rest but will likely still have a short leash, noting that he averages less than five innings per start this season. The good news is that behind Lester is an improving Cardinals bullpen that comes off an off day on Monday and has posted a collective 3.90 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 19 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Max Fried gets the nod for Atlanta. He should benefit from facing a Cards club that averages just 3.6 runs per game against lefties this season. Fried already limited St. Louis to just one earned run over seven innings back in June. His road numbers aren't good this season but he enters this outing on a full five days' rest and has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his last three starts overall, with two of those coming on the road. Like the Cards 'pen, the Braves relief corps has been improving and checks in with a 4.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season, converting 13 saves while blowing only five. Take the under (10*). |
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08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring start on Monday's showdown between the Mariners and Rays in St. Petersburg. Chris Flexen gets the start for Seattle. The wheels have come off for him over his last couple of starts as he's been tagged for nine earned runs on 15 hits over just 9 1/3 innings of work. Note that he's recorded a grand total of only six strikeouts over his last three outings. He owns a 5.92 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in seven road starts this season with the 'over' cashing in all seven of those contests. To make matters worse he faces a Rays club that he has faced once before, back in 2018, when he gave up five earned runs and exited after just three innings. Michael Wacha will counter for Tampa Bay. He's been terrific at home this season but I don't have a great deal of confidence in him as he pitches on just four days' rest here, and faces a Mariners club that has certainly had his number, facing him twice since 2019, including once already this season, scoring nine earned runs on 17 hits while drawing three walks and striking out only twice in just seven innings. It's worth noting that Wacha has allowed 11 earned runs on 22 hits in just 14 1/3 innings when pitching on four days' rest this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid (for the most part) a Rays bullpen that has posted a collective 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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08-02-21 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Baltimore and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring weekend series' but I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night in the Bronx. Baltimore will give the start to Jorge Lopez. He'll be facing the Yankees for the fifth time since the start of last season and he's had very minimal success against them. New York has scored 10 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings against Lopez this season. He's topped out at four strikeouts over his last six starts, failing to last five innings in any of those outings. Andrew Heaney will get his first start since coming over to the Yankees prior to the trade deadline. This might be a tougher matchup than it appears as the Orioles enter this game hitting better against left-handed pitching and also overall in their last seven games. Heaney struggled at the best of times at home as a member of the Angels this season, posting a 5.57 ERA and 1.39 WHIP and now faces the pressure of pitching in the Bronx. Here, he'll be starting on just four days' rest for the first time this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid factoring in a solid Yankees bullpen that has by no means been lately and owns a collective 3.55 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 12 converted saves and only three blown against division opponents this season. Take the first five innings over (7*). |
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07-31-21 | Twins v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting some offense as the Twins and Cardinals continue their series in St. Louis on Saturday night. Bailey Ober will get another turn in the rotation for the Twins. He checks in sporting a 4.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with the 'over' having cashed in three of his four road starts this season. Given he averages just over four innings per start on the road we should see plenty of a Twins bullpen that has posted a collective 5.62 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 11 saves converted and eight blown in night games this season. Jake Woodford will counter for the Cards. He's failed to make it through six innings in his first two starts, allowing 13 hits and four earned runs in 10 2/3 innings of work. Should he fail to work deep into the game again on Saturday we'll see plenty of a Cards 'pen that owns a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in night games this season. Take the over (7*). |
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07-31-21 | A's v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Anaheim on Saturday. Left-hander Cole Irvin will take the ball for Oakland. The Angels will be getting their fourth look at him already this season. They enjoyed plenty of success in their first two tries against him before getting shut out over seven innings against him a couple of weeks ago (we actually won with the A's in that game). Note that the Angels have been a better offensive team both at home and against left-handed starting pitching this season. Prior to getting shut out the last two nights, the Halos had scored 23 runs in their previous four contests. Irvin has generally been weaker in day games this season, recording a 4.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 10 starts. Behind Irvin is an uneven A's bullpen that has posted a collective 3.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road this season with 12 saves converted and 10 blown. Jaime Barria will counter for Los Angeles. He pitched well in his first start of the season last time out but going back further has generally struggled at the big league level. The A's didn't do much against him back in 2018 but then in 2019 scored five runs, four of them earned, in just four innings. Note that the A's have actually been a better offensive team on the road than at home this season. The real key to the A's success here could be the way they match up against the Angels bullpen. Los Angeles hasn't had a day off since July 21st and its 'pen has struggled all season, particularly in day games where it owns a collective 5.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with nine saves converted and five blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-30-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Neither of these teams are tearing the cover off the ball right now - in fact, quite the opposite. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Friday's series-opener. Jean-Carlos Mejia will take the ball for the Indians. He has admittedly struggled this season - his numbers are downright ugly. However, he did match a season-high by going six innings in his most recent start and now gets the opportunity to face the White Sox for the first time in his career, and do so on a full five days' rest. Note that his last two starts have come against opponents he's been facing for the second time in less than a month. I'll also point out that Mejia has struck out 14 in his last two outings - showing some clear progress after recording just 14 strikeouts in his previous four starts combined. Mejia will likely have a short leash here though, noting that he averages less than four innings per start on the road this season. That's ok with us as the Indians bullpen has been solid, recording a 3.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only three blown against division opponents this season. Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's been lights out at home this season, posting a 1.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 11 home starts, with the 'over' cashing in just one of those games. Going back over his last five outings, Lynn has given up just four earned runs in 28 innings of work. Behind Lynn is one of the freshest bullpens in baseball as the White Sox relief corps has logged just over 320 innings this season. Like the Indians, the White Sox 'pen has fared well against division opponents, posting a collective 3.27 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 14 saves converted and eight blown entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
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07-29-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Colorado and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Padres are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs against the A's but I look for a different story to unfold against the Rockies on Thursday - at least in the early stages of this one. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for the Rockies. The Padres will be seeing him for the third time this season and while they've had some previous success against him, he does come into this start pitching well, noting that he's allowed three earned runs or less in six straight starts. The 'under' has actually cashed in five of his six road outings this season. I'll also point out that the Padres offense has been slightly weaker both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid factoring in an awful Rockies bullpen that has struggled all season, particularly away from home. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. He's been outstanding at home this season but did struggle in his most recent outing against the Rockies, which did come here in San Diego. Keep in mind, he was pitching on just four days' rest in that one. Here, he starts on a full five days' rest and should improve on his stellar 2.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. Better still, Musgrove owns a 2.59 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 13 nighttime starts this season. The Rockies have of course been a weaker offensive club both on the road and against right-handed pitching this season. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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07-29-21 | Canada v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Canada and Mexico at 10 pm et on Thursday. While Mexico should certainly prevail in this match to advance to the Gold Cup Final, victories have rarely come easy for El Tri at this stage of the tournament and Canada serves as the very definition of a 'tough out'. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday. I actually think this one could play out similarly to Canada's narrow loss to the USA earlier in this tournament. Without the likes of Cyle Larin and of course Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, the Canadians don't have the firepower to welcome a high-scoring affair here. Mexico has shown a desire to go on the attack throughout this tournament, while also keeping a clean sheet from wire-to-wire so far. After scoring three goals against Honduras I suspect Mexico will be hard-pressed to find the back of the net more than once in this one. On the flip side, Canada simply doesn't have its 'A' squad right now due to injuries and will find the Mexican back end extremely difficult to break down. Take the under (6*). |
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07-28-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 11-4 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have been high-scoring but I look for Wednesday's series-finale to get off to a low-scoring start at the very least. Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for Houston. He has struggled a bit in his last couple of outings but still owns a solid 3.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in six road starts this season. He has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, not allowing a home run in five of his last six starts overall. Despite what we've seen in the first couple of games in this series, the Mariners have actually been a slightly weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid an Astros bullpen that owns a 4.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with 12 saves converted and 11 blown on the road this season. Yusei Kikuchi will counter for the Mariners. He bounced back from a couple of shaky outings to strike out 12 while allowing just three earned runs over six innings last time out. Kikuchi has posted a sparkling 1.77 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in six daytime starts this season. He seemed to figure out the Astros in his last start against them in late April, tossing seven innings of one-hit shutout ball. There's no real reason to knock a quality Mariners bullpen but I will point out that they have collectively posted a higher ERA in day games this season, currently sitting at 3.91. Take the first five innings under (7*). |
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07-23-21 | Padres v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. |
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07-23-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 1-5 | Win | 101 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Braves got off to a fast start at the plate and cruised the rest of the way in last night's 7-2 victory. I look for the starting pitchers to dominate Friday's contest, in the early going at least. Max Fried will get the nod for Atlanta. After struggling in his first few starts against the Phillies back in 2019 he's been locked in over his last three going back to the start of last season. In those three outings he has allowed just three earned runs in 15 innings of work. Note that Fried comes into this start off a seven-inning shutout performance against the Rays last week. While his road numbers are poor this season, it's worth noting that in his last two road starts on five days' rest (as is the case here) he's given up just four earned runs in 11 innings. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Braves bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.63 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road this season. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He is of course enjoying a career year and has been particularly sharp here at home, recording a 2.16 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 11 starts. Not surprisingly, he's owned the Braves in two previous home starts this season, allowing only five hits while posting a ridiculous 22:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 shutout innings. The Phillies bullpen is another one we'll look to avoid, noting that they've posted a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 11 saves converted compared to nine blown at home this season. Take the first five innings under (7*). |
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07-22-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams come in riding three-game 'over' streaks, with those streaks starting with an 'over' result last Sunday night that we experienced first hand (a true 'bad beat' for us with the 'under' as the game was 3-0 heading into the bottom of the seventh inning but went 'over' by half a run with a 9-1 final score). Here, I look for those 'over' streaks to come to an end as the scene shifts to Fenway Park. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for the Yankees. He's held his own on the mound lately but unfortunately has been given just seven runs to work with over his last five starts. Montgomery checks in sporting a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts this season with the 'under' cashing in seven of those games. This will be Boston's third look at Montgomery this season with minimal previous success having scored six earned runs in 12 innings against him. Behind Montgomery is a Yankees bullpen that has been at its best on the road this season, recording a collective 3.11 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only two blown. Tanner Houck returns to the big leagues to make just his third start of the season for the Red Sox. In his first two starts this season - which both came back in April - he allowed five earned runs in 9 1/3 innings. Note that he faced the Yankees last September and pitched well, giving up just one unearned run over six innings here at Fenway Park. Houck will likely have a short leash in this game and that's fine for our purposes as the Red Sox bullpen has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with 13 saves converted and five blown here at home this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-21-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Kyle Hendricks will make his fourth start against the Cardinals this season and sixth going back to the start of last season. The Cards have never really been able to figure the veteran right-hander out and I don't expect them to do so tonight either. In five previous games against Hendricks since last August, St. Louis has never managed to score more than three earned runs - held to two earned runs or less in each of their last four tries against him. Just before the All-Star break, Hendricks held the Cards to two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. Note that Hendricks checks in sporting a 3.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in nine road starts this season with the 'under' cashing in five of those games. With Hendricks averaging over six innings per start on the road this season we might not need too much help from the Cubs bullpen but it's worth noting that they entered last night's action sporting a solid 3.37 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in night games this season with 11 converted saves and only four blown. Adam Wainwright will counter for St. Louis. He's been outstanding at home this season, recording a 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts with the 'under' going 8-3 in those games. The Cubs will be seeing him for the third time since last September, having managed just two earned runs on seven hits off of him in their last two tries, covering a span of 14 1/3 innings. While Wainwright will be starting on just four days' rest that's not as big of a concern given he had a 10 days between starts previously thanks to the All-Star break. While the Cards bullpen has posted outstanding numbers across the board this season, they did enter last night's contest having converted an incredible 18 saves while blowing only one here at home this season. The Cubs offense busted out last night but prior to that had averaged just 3.6 runs per game on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-20-21 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 101 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Texas and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Tigers offense exploded for 14 runs in last night's rout of the Rangers. Texas' scoring woes continued as it has now scored just two runs in four games since the All-Star break and has been shutout in three consecutive contests (two of those games were seven-inning affairs). Dane Dunning will get the start for the Rangers on Tuesday. He has admittedly struggled on the road this season but did head into the break on a positive note, having posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts, including a road start in Oakland that saw him toss four shutout innings. The break probably came at a good time for Dunning as he had made two of his last three starts on just four days' rest. Note that he has been at his best this season in nighttime starts, recording a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 10 outings. After struggling against the Tigers in his first start against them last August, he bounced back and allowed just one earned run on one hit over five innings against them in his last start before the break. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rangers bullpen that has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 5.35 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with only six converted saves and five blown (entering last night's action). Left-hander Tarik Skubal will counter for Detroit. Like Dunning, he also made two of his last three starts before the break on just four days' rest so the extra days off came at a good time. Skubal has pitched reasonably well at home this season, recording a 3.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in nine starts. He'll have the benefit of facing the Rangers for the first time in his career on Tuesday. With the Tigers bullpen entering last night's action having posted a collective 5.89 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at night this season, we'll look to avoid that unit by playing the first five innings only here. Take the first five innings under (8*). |