Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-20 | Texans -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 45 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Detroit was just putrid last week in a 20-0 loss to Carolina. The offense was held below 200 yards as it gained just 3.4 yards per play. They had only 10 first downs for the game! There has to be some real doubt about Matt Patricia’s future as the head coach. That’s going to have an effect on the team’s motivation down the stretch. The Lions are 13-28-1 SU since he took over. The Panthers team that shut them out on Sunday was without its starting QB Teddy Bridgewater and star RB Christian McCaffery. PJ Walker, making his first ever NFL start, threw for 258 yards against the Lions defense. Injuries and COVID-19 have left the Lions short-handed on both sides of the ball. So look for the Texans to take advantage in this early Thanksgiving Day battle. We cashed Houston in a 27-20 win over the Patriots on Sunday as they improved to 3-7 on the year. With the likes of Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt, the Texans certainly look more formidable than the Panthers team that just embarrassed the Lions. Watson threw for 344 yards against the Patriots, his 5th 300-plus yard game of the season, and has a 11-0 TD-INT ratio the last five weeks. The Lions’ pass defense, as we saw last week against a 1st time starter, is poor. They rank 25th in the league, giving up 258.4 yards/game. Watt and the Texans defense were solid last week in allowing just 86 yards rushing. The Lions are just 4-12 on Thanksgiving since 2004 with eight losses by 10 or more. They are also on a 1-4 SU/ATS run as home underdogs of three points or less. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TB We’ve got a big game in the NFC Monday night with the 7-3 Bucs hosting the 6-3 Rams. Both teams had impressive wins last week. Tampa Bay pummeled poor Carolina 46-23 and finished with a substantial 544-187 edge in total yardage. Just as impressive was the Rams defense which held Seattle to only 16 points. When handicapping this matchup, it’s important to remember that the Bucs are 7-1 against everybody besides the Saints. That other loss was by a single point at Chicago and they probably should have won that game. The Rams are 4-0 against the horrible NFC East and 2-3 vs.everyone else. As impressive as beating Seattle was, that was a familiar foe at home. The Rams are 4-0 at home, but just 2-3 on the road (sense a pattern?). Left tackle Andre Whitworth got hurt last week and is going to miss the last six weeks. That’s a big loss for the Rams. Their offense has scored 24 points or less four of the last five games. Tom Brady and the Bucs have scored 38 or more in four of their last seven. Though 0-3 ATS in primetime this season, this one sets up well for Tampa Bay. The Rams defense forced three turnovers vs. Seattle. Don’t see that happening again. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 108 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS CITY This is a big revenge game for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Back in Week 5 they lost to the Raiders 40-32. Going by the pointspread (KC was -10 in that game), that’s the biggest upset of the NFL season so far. Chiefs coach Andy Reid clearly hasn’t forgotten, going so far as to point out the fact the Raiders took a “victory lap” (in their team bus) around the stadium following the upset. Though it has won and covered three in a row, Las Vegas is not well positioned for this rematch as 10 of the 11 players currently on the reserve/COVID-19 list are from the defensive side of the ball. Mahomes should have a big night as the Raiders are already giving up nearly 28 points/game at home. Reid is 14-7 ATS in his coaching career coming out of a bye week and Mahomes is 11-5 ATS in division games. So it’s a good spot for the favorite that has already covered 22 of the last 32 times they’ve been asked to lay points on the road. The Raiders, despite their 6-3 SU record, have been outgained this season. Over the past 20 seasons, if a double digit division dog wins the first meeting of the season outright, they are just 5-9 ATS the second time around. The Chiefs have won six games by at least nine points so far and their average margin of victory is 11.5 points/game. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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11-22-20 | Packers +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY Like New England-Houston, this Green Bay-Indianapolis line also flipped. The Packers were favored on the look ahead line, but not anymore after they struggled to beat Jacksonville last week while the Colts beat the Titans 34-17. We’ll take advantage of the value we’re now getting with the Packers, who are 4-1 ATS on the road this season. That’s the second best cover percentage in the league. Under Matt LaFleur the Pack have gone 5-1 ATS as a regular season road underdog and all five covers were also outright wins. Green Bay is also the first team in NFL history to average more than 30 points through nine games while turning it over five or fewer times. They haven’t failed to cover back to back games all season either. Aaron Rodgers has averaged almost 300 yards passing his last four games indoors and won them all. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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11-22-20 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER The Cowboys are having a season to forget as they are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread. For a while there, the Vikings seemed to be on a similar trajectory. But they have rallied for three consecutive wins and covers to get to 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS. The most recent win came Monday night, 19-13 over the Bears. The next three weeks (including this one) have Minnesota playing at home and they figure to be a strong favorite in every game. But we would be wary of laying this many points with a team playing on a short week, especially considering Dallas is off its bye. The ‘Boys did show some life two weeks ago vs. Pittsburgh, but still scored only 19 points. That’s the most they’ve scored in the four games since Dak Prescott went down with an injury. All four of those games have gone Under. We don't think the return of Andy Dalton will matter much. We already mentioned that the Vikings are off a low-scoring game themselves. Mike Zimmer will probably play this one "close to the vest" as he isn’t likely to pull out many tricks. The Under is 10-4 in Dallas’ last 14 games as a road underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans +2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON This is one of a few games that saw the line “flip” early in the week. The look ahead line had Houston favored by 2.5, but things quickly changed once New England upset Baltimore last Saturday night. Now the Patriots are favored, a role they are quite accustomed to, but this isn’t your normal Bill Belichick team. Remember that they struggled to beat the winless Jets on the road and are just 4-5 SU on the season. They are 0-3 ATS this season against teams that have a losing record. They are also 0-4 ATS as a favorite of three points or fewer, losing all four games outright. That one goes back to last season. Houston hasn’t been very good this season and is just 2-7 ATS. But they are now a really good value compared to what the look ahead line for this game was. DeShaun Watson has not thrown an interception since Week 5. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-22-20 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 49 | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER So the Saints are going with Taysom Hill here, not Jameis Winston, in place of the injured Drew Brees. That was a surprise to some, but we’re going to trust Sean Payton knows what he’s doing. The Saints should still be able to score plenty against a Falcons defense that is giving up 27.9 points/game and doesn’t really know what to expect from Hill. Remember that New Orleans started this season by going Over in every one of the first seven games. Atlanta can score too; they’ve averaged just over 30 points/game since Raheem Morris took over. The Saints strength on defense is stopping the run. The Falcons aren’t likely to run the ball very much here as Matt Ryan is going to test the Saints secondary. This is a game where the winning side is likely to score 30 and we think the loser will score enough to get it over the hump. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-21-20 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma OVER 59 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Bedlam has seen Oklahoma go 11-4 ATS against Mike Gundy-led Oklahoma State teams. Most of those games have been high-scoring as well. Last year’s game, a 34-16 win by OU, was the fewest total points scored in Bedlam in a decade. This year both teams are ranked in the Top 18. Oklahoma, who suffered two early season losses, has now won four straight games. They are averaging 46.1 points/game for the season and hit 62 in the last two. Oklahoma State has only one loss, 41-34 to Texas, so a win here would really put them in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 Championship Game. But winning Saturday in Norman is going to require them to score a lot of points. Oklahoma’s defense has given up 37+ in three different games, so the Cowboys should score a lot. Whether it's enough for the outright win remains to be seen. But it will be enough to help send this game Over the total. The Over is already 15-5-1 in the Sooners previous 21 home games. Play on the OVER AAA |
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11-21-20 | Liberty +5.5 v. NC State | Top | 14-15 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY Liberty can’t get any respect. The Flames are 7-0 and ranked 21st in the country. But they are still underdogs to a 5-3 North Carolina State team this week. This despite having already beaten another ACC team, Virginia Tech, as a 17-point dog two weeks ago. We took Liberty plus the points there and will do the same here. NC State is lucky to even be 5-3. They got outgained in road wins against Pitt and Virginia. Two weeks ago they faced Miami and while that ended up being a close loss (44-41), the Wolfpack gave up over 600 total yards and were outgained severely. Oh yeah, they also lost to Virginia Tech -- by 21! NC State’s defense has already allowed 40+ points four different times. Liberty averages 42.3 points/game and while some of that can be attributed to weaker competition, they did score 38 against Va Tech. They are 7-2 ATS L9 vs. the ACC. We just don’t see them as the underdog in this matchup. NC State has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has been favored. Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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11-21-20 | Missouri -6 v. South Carolina | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MISSOURI South Carolina has a lot of problems right now. They just fired Will Muschamp. That drastic move came after three straight losses, all of which saw the Gamecocks give up 48+ points. Last week’s 59-42 loss at Ole Miss was apparently the “straw that broke the camel’s back.” The defense gave up over 700 yards! So Missouri, who is playing for the first time in three weeks, has to like its chances this week. The Tigers last game didn’t go so well either. They were beaten 41-17 by Florida on Halloween. But facing a team that has given up 159 points in three games and just fired its coach is what we call a “get-well” game. There’s way too much turmoil going on at South Carolina for interim coach Mike Bobo to have a successful debut. Bobo was the offensive coordinator under Muschamp, so he’s not going to get this defense fixed anytime soon. Look for Mizzou to achieve a season-high in points and earn itself a comfortable cover this week. Play on MISSOURI AAA |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN #10 Wisconsin being a road favorite here against #19 Northwestern says a lot. Since 2018, teams ranked in the top 15 have done very well (16-5 ATS) against opponents that are ranked, but outside the Top 15. That includes 5-0 ATS if the Top 15 team is on the road, which Wisconsin is here. That the Badgers are favored by this many points, despite being 1-5 ATS the L6 years vs. Northwestern with three outright losses, tells you what the oddsmakers think of this year’s matchup. Northwestern might be 4-0 in the Big 10 for the first time since ‘96, but three of their wins have been by single digits and they’ve been outgained twice. It’s a “phony” 4-0 record. Wisconsin just handed Michigan its worst home loss since 1935, 49-11, outgaining the Wolverines by nearly 250 total yards. We’re proud to say we had the Badgers last week in Ann Arbor. Despite being 2-0, the Badgers are still being underrated by the public, likely because they had two games called off because of COVID. But in the two games they have played they have put up 45 and 49 points, winning by 38 each time. We expect Wisconsin’s superiority to be on full display Saturday afternoon at Ryan Field as they once again roll to an easy win and cover. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida OVER 64 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the OVER #7 Cincinnati is undefeated (7-0) but about to embark on a three-game road trip. They better not take UCF too lightly this week. This will be the first time UCF is an underdog in a regular season game since 2017 (ends a 39-game streak). Though unranked, the Golden Knights are always a threat to put a ton of points on the board. They lead all of NCAAF in total offense with 619.1 yards/game. That’s close to an all-time single season record. UCF has averaged 44.3 points per gameduring their current three-game win streak. While Cincinnati’s defense is top 10 in yards allowed and top three in scoring, a big reason for that is they have not faced many good offenses. UCF will easily be the best offense they face all season. Lucky for Cincy then that they too are capable of putting up a ton of points. They put up 55 last week on East Carolina, which was the 4th straight game with 38 or more. We think both teams are going to hit 30 here, so that means a play on the Over, which is 4-1 the last five times that the Bearcats have been road favorites. Play on the OVER AAA |
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11-21-20 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina has been a favorite of ours for weeks now. They have treated us to multiple ATS wins, a 30-27 upset of Louisiana and 51-0 beatdown of Georgia State to name a couple. The Chanticleers deserve everyone’s respect as they are now 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS on the season and ranked #15 in the country. This week they face perhaps the biggest remaining hurdle to an undefeated regular season, that being Appalachian State. But we’ll gladly lay the points again with CC as the game is in Conway and the home team is off a bye. Coastal Carolina wasn’t supposed to be off a bye here, but last week’s game vs. Troy got called off because of COVID. The extra week to prepare for a tough opponent is a big break for the Chanticleers. Meanwhile the situation for Appalachian State is not good. They are 0-3 ATS the L3 weeks and haven’t beaten a ranked opponent since their famous upset of Michigan back in 2007 (0-7 SU since then). Making things even worse is the uncertain status of QB Zac Thomas. Thomas left last week’s 17-13 win over Georgia State with an apparent case of whiplash. Even if Thomas were to play Saturday, it’s tough to like the Mountaineers here considering they trailed Georgia State when Thomas got hurt. This is Coastal Carolina’s year. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-21-20 | LSU +1 v. Arkansas | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU Arkansas’ unbeaten ATS run ended last week in emphatic fashion. They were thumped 63-35 by Florida, which was a reminder just how large of a gap still exists between the Razorbacks and the SEC’s elite. For the record, the Hogs were 6-0 ATS this year prior to facing Florida and had covered eight in a row going back to the end of 2019. That eight win streak started with a cover vs. LSU - but they were 39.5 point underdogs last season. LSU obviously isn’t the same team this year, but they should still be able to defeat Arkansas for a fifth straight time. The Tigers were spared a beating at the hands of Alabama last week as that game was claimed by COVID. They haven’t played since an ugly 48-11 loss to Auburn Halloween night. All that time to prepare should lead to a focused effort this week and hopefully the players affected by COVID will return. They are 7-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Arkansas has its own COVID-related issues with Sam Pittman forced to coach remotely. That will affect a team’s preparation as we saw last week when the Razorbacks defense gave up almost 600 total yards against Florida. LSU isn’t Florida, but they are still better than the Hogs. LSU scored at least 34 points in every game before losing to Auburn. Play on LSU AAA |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force UNDER 55.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 61 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Air Force hosts New Mexico Friday night with both teams still looking for their first conference win. Air Force has won a game in 2020 as they shockingly beat Navy 40-7 in the season opener (were +6.5). But that was on October 3rd and the Falcons are 0-2 since. After a three-week layoff, they lost 17-6 to San Jose State, then the following week brought a 49-30 loss to Boise State. They are off another three-week layoff here. New Mexico is 0-3 and lost 12 straight games going back to last season. They can’t even play in Albuquerque with COVID concerns forcing them to relocate their home games to Las Vegas. The Lobos lost their Sin City debut last week, 27-20 against Nevada, but did at least cover the spread for a second consecutive game. In addition to the COVID-19 issues both teams have had to deal with this season, New Mexico and Air Force also enter this Friday night game with injury concerns at QB. It’s not like we’d expect much from either offense anyway. The Over has hit in seven straight meetings between these two schools, but the Under is 4-0 in New Mexico’s last four Friday games. Air Force is also 6-1 Under its last seven times it has been the favorite. Under is the call here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-20-20 | Purdue -3 v. Minnesota | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -106 | 59 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PURDUE Purdue is 2-1 but just suffered its first loss last Saturday. They came up short against Northwestern, losing 27-20 as 3.5-point home underdogs. That was painful for us as we had the Boilermakers. An inability to run the ball is what cost them. Running the ball here vs. Minnesota shouldn’t be a problem. The Golden Gophers have given up 181+ yards rushing in all four games and the 235 they allowed last week in a 35-7 loss to Iowa was only the THIRD most allowed in a game this season. So you shouldn’t be shocked to learn Minnesota is 1-3 on the year. Their lone win was against a bad Illinois team. They just haven’t looked right since the season started. Michigan, who obviously isn’t very good, blew them out. Then the Gophers lost as big favorites to a Maryland team that was off a 43-3 loss. Then came the 41-14 win over Illinois, which PJ Fleck hoped was the start of a turnaround. It wasn’t. Losing 35-7 at home to Iowa was a massive step back and the Golden Gophers have been outscored 84-31 in two games at TCF Bank Stadium. They’ve allowed 35+ points in all three losses this season. Purdue is 17-7 ATS off an ATS loss and has double revenge. They win. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE We’ve got a three-way tie atop the NFC West with the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all 6-3. Seattle is trending in the wrong direction right now as they’ve lost back to back games for the first time this season. They are 1-4 ATS their L5 games. Arizona has already beaten Seattle once, in primetime no less (it was a Sunday night game), and comes off a thrilling 32-30 win over Buffalo where they completed a Hail Mary on the final play. They were obviously pretty lucky to win Sunday and truthfully were lucky to beat the Seahawks the first time too. They had to score at the end of regulation just to force OT. Seattle outgained them in that first contest 572-519 and never trailed until the game went final. Considering the Seahawks went off as the favorite at Arizona, they are looking like a really good value in the rematch. We’ll take them to win. Seattle hasn’t lost three in a row since the 2011 season. Arizona has trailed by at least 7 points each of the last three weeks. They were down 14 against Buffalo. It wasn’t too long ago that some considered the Seahawks the best team in the league. We’re not panicking over the recent results. Don’t see them losing again in an obvious revenge spot. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-19-20 | Tulane v. Tulsa -6 | Top | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 35 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA Tulane will arrive in Tulsa Thursday night on a 3-game SU win streak and a 5-game ATS win streak. But the teams they’ve been beating aren’t very good. Tulsa is now ranked #25 in the country, ending a decade-long absence from the polls. Their only loss this season was to Oklahoma State and they led that game going into the fourth quarter. They’ve since won four in a row including an upset of UCF. So we’ve got two hot teams from the American on the field Thursday night. We side with the Golden Hurricane as they are at home and have a defense that can stop the run. That latter part is huge when facing Tulane, who is 4-1 when rushing for 200+ yards this season. But Tulsa has yet to give up more than 151 yards rushing to any opponent. This is also a triple revenge spot for the Golden Hurricane, who has lost to Tulane three straight years. But none of those Tulsa teams won more than four games. This one is 4-1 SU. Tulane is 2-5 ATS the last seven times as a road underdog. One of those two covers was earlier this year (at UCF) as a 21-point dog (lost by 17). Tulsa has already beaten two teams (UCF, Houston) that beat Tulane by 17+. Play on TULSA AAA |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan OVER 59.5 | Top | 52-44 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER This game may very well end up deciding the MAC West. Both Western Michigan and Central Michigan are 2-0. After a 58-13 blowout win over Akron in the opener, Western Michigan pulled a rabbit out of the hat for us last week against Toledo. Central Michigan has also covered the spread in both of its wins, 30-27 over Ohio U (were underdogs) and 40-10 over Northern Illinois. Another constant for both teams is lots of scoring. Western Michigan has totaled 99 points in two games while Central Michigan has scored 70. The Western Michigan offense is averaging a stunning 8.0 yards/play, led by QB Kaleb Eleby, who is completing 71 percent of his passes. The Over is 5-0 in the Broncos previous 5 Wednesday games and 6-2-1 their last nine road games. The Over is also 6-1 in the Chippewas last 7 Wednesday games. Their offense has been no slouch either, averaging 5.7 yards per play. Here they go up against a defense that just gave up 500 yards last week. This should be a back and forth, high-scoring game. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-17-20 | Akron v. Kent State -25 | Top | 35-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENT STATE Akron did play better than expected last week.They “only” lost by 14 to Ohio U. That a two-touchdown loss could be spun as a “success” (Zips easily covered the 27-point spread) should be a clear indication that this team is not good. They are probably one of the worst teams in the entire country. The loss to Ohio last Tuesday was their 19th straight, a streak which goes back to 2018. They were 0-12 SU a season ago. The Zips have failed to score more than 17 points in any of the last nine games. Such offensive (and overall) ineptitude is going to be a major problem facing rival Kent State this week.The Golden Flashes went just 2-10 SU in 2018. But unlike Akron, this program has turned things around. After winning five straight at the end of last year (including bowl), it’s a 2-0 start to 2020 that has seen the Flashes offense average 254 yards rushing and 295 yards passing! They put up 62 points last week on Bowling Green, a comparable team to Akron, and that was on the road. Akron’s defense has given up over 400 yards rushing in its two games.Last year, the Kent State defense held the Zips to three points in a 23-point win. This year’s matchup figures to be even more lopsided. It’s a team that’s 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS hosting a team that’s 0-19 SU/4-15 ATS its L19. A complete mismatch here. Play on KENT STATE AAA |
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11-16-20 | Vikings -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 164 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA The Vikings have a real shot at erasing a poor 1-5 start to the season. They’re now 3-5 following wins over the Packers and Lions and after this week, they SHOULD be favored to win three consecutive home games (Dallas, Carolina, Jacksonville). The Bears are headed in the opposite direction as they were once 5-1, but have now lost three in a row. They have averaged just 16.7 points during the losing skid while the defense has given up 24.7. No longer can the defense carry this miserable offense in Chicago. Mitchell Trubisky wasn’t the answer at QB and Nick Foles isn’t either. There aren’t any other options right now. The big storyline for this game will be Kirk Cousins’ 0-9 record on Monday Night Football, but he’s better than what the Bears have at QB. Plus, Cousins has the luxury handing the ball off to Dalvin Cook, who has run for 369 yards the last two weeks with five touchdowns. The Bears rushing attack averages just 82 yards/game and they are 31st in third down success rate. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS L6 games and 40-22-1 ATS as favorites under Mike Zimmer. They continue their march back to .500. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -109 | 164 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER It’s a low total this week on Monday Night Football, but that shouldn’t be a surprise with the Bears involved. They haven’t scored more than 23 points in a game since that improbable come from behind win over the Falcons back in Week 3. But in all fairness, they’ve been facing some strong defenses. Minnesota has allowed 20 or more in every game and 29.3 per game for the season. We don’t think the Bears will hit that latter number here, but they’ll certainly score enough to where this NFC North game goes Over the total. Then you’ve got a Minnesota offense that seems to have found its rhythm behind the running of Dalvin Cook. Cook has scored five touchdowns the past two games while running for 369 yards. The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in six straight games. Five of those games have gone Over. All six have seen at least 50 points scored. Something we found to be interesting is that all five NFC North games this season have seen the Over hit. Play on the OVER AAA |
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11-15-20 | Ravens -7 v. Patriots | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 132 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE New England picked up an U-G-L-Y win Monday night against the Jets. The fact that they were trailing the Jets - by double digits - going into the 4th quarter should tell you all you need to know about the current state of the Patriots. Now on a short week they must turn around and play host to Baltimore, a team at the opposite end of the league’s spectrum. A 24-10 win over the Colts last week was hardly the Ravens “finest hour,” but they really dominated the second half which saw the defense pitch a shutout. That made it a 10-game road winning streak in which Lamar Jackson and the offense have averaged a very impressive 32.3 points/game. Remember that the Ravens destroyed a much better Patriots team around this time last season, 37-20. At the time, the Patriots were 8-0. Since then they’ve gone just 7-11 straight up. Their vaunted record as a home underdog is no longer really that applicable now that Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay. Baltimore has scored at least 20 points in 31 straight games and forced a turnover in 21 straight games. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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11-15-20 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 47.5 | Top | 10-36 | Loss | -109 | 128 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Pittsburgh is one of four teams that is 6-2 ATS, the best such record in the league. But Cincinnati happens to be one of the other three. Of course the Steelers’ 8-0 SU record is the envy of not just the 2-5-1 Bengals, but the rest of the league as well. On Saturday, Big Ben was activated from the COVID-19/reserve list and is expected to start Sunday. He should have plenty of time to throw against this Bengals defense that has generated only 11 sacks and recently traded Carlos Dunlap. On the other side, rookie Joe Burrow figures to be running for his life. The spread is larger than what we’d feel comfortable laying, but look for this AFC North game to go Over. Five of Cincy’s last seven, including three straight, have gone Over. The last three games have seen 58, 71 and 51 points scored. Pittsburgh averages 32.5 points/game at home. Last week’s poor effort (still a 24-19 win in Dallas) was their lowest scoring game to date. They are 16-6 Over L22 as a home favorite. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-15-20 | Seahawks +2 v. Rams | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -102 | 128 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SEATTLE Seattle suffered its second loss of the season last week, 44-34 at the hands of Buffalo. That result surprised us as did the fact Bills QB Josh Allen threw for more than 400 yards against the Seahawks defense. Now it's not as if we were under the impression the Seahawks defense is one of the league’s best (far from it), but still it was jarring to see them give up 44 points. Now they face the Rams, who are off a bye, in a very important NFC West matchup. Look for Russell Wilson to lead the bounce back. Since Wilson was drafted, Seattle is 23-10-2 ATS as an underdog, the best such record in the league during that time. The last time the Seahawks were getting points was … last season. The Rams’ defense is second in the league in points allowed, but they’ve faced a slew of poor offenses. When they faced Buffalo, they gave up 35 points and were down big in the 1st half. The Seahawks offense leads the league in scoring at 34.3 points/game. The Rams are 5-3, but that includes 4-0 against the terrible NFC East. Take that away and their only win was against a Chicago team whose offensive capabilities couldn’t be further from Seattle’s. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Buffalo picked up a big win last week. They beat Seattle 44-34 to move to 7-2 on the year. But that was at home. They are just 1-4 ATS L5 road games and hadn’t covered in four straight overall before last week’s upset of the Seahawks. Arizona is off a loss to Buffalo’s AFC East rival Miami, dropping them to 1-5 ATS as a home favorite since 2018. But the Cardinals are a good team and we don’t see them losing two in a row on their home field. Remember that they are the only other team (besides Buffalo) to defeat Seattle this year. Kyler Murray is putting up some really impressive numbers and the offense posted more total yards than Miami last week (442 to 312) despite losing last week. It was a three-point loss where the Dolphins scored a defensive TD. The Bills were able to beat the Seahawks largely because of a +4 turnover differential. They really don’t have the statistical profile of a typical 7-2 team. Besides two wins over the Jets, they have three wins by a field goal and another by a touchdown. They were dominated by two of the AFC’s better teams, Tennessee and Kansas City. This number is too short. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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11-15-20 | Texans v. Browns -3 | Top | 7-10 | Push | 0 | 124 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND This seems to be a bit of a curious line as Houston is getting a lot of respect despite being 2-6 straight up and 1-7 against the spread. Both Texans wins have come against Jacksonville, the second one last week by a score of 27-25. Cleveland was off last week (bye) and has failed to cover three in a row themselves. But the Browns are in a much better spot than the Texans right now, 5-3 and in the playoff hunt for the first time in over a decade. They get RB Nick Chubb back this week, which is a big deal. When Chubb got hurt, the Browns were leading the NFL in rushing yards -- averaging more than 200 per game. They’ve since “slipped” a bit (to 5th) but with Chubb back in the fold should find little resistance against a terrible Houston defense that gives up the most rushing yards per game in the league. The Texans haven’t covered a single road game this year (0-4 ATS) nor have they covered a single time as an underdog (0-5). There were COVID-19 concerns midweek for the Browns, but those all seem to be in the rear view mirror now. This is a game they HAVE to win if they want to end the league’s longest playoff drought. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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11-14-20 | Wisconsin -4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 49-11 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Michigan has not played well as an underdog for Jim Harbaugh. They have lost all 10 games where they have been getting points and covered only twice. This will be the first time under Harbaugh that they’ve been a home dog to anyone besides Ohio State. It’s against a Wisconsin team that’s been forced to cancel its last two games because of COVID. While that is certainly a distraction no team wants to have to deal with, the Badgers were projected to be a Top 5 (ish) team (in the country) this season and were 45-7 winners (against Illinois) in the one game they did play. The Badgers could have QB Graham Mertz on the field this Saturday in Ann Arbor. Regardless whether or not he suits up, look for Wisconsin to take advantage of a terrible Wolverines secondary that has been picked apart in losses to Michigan State and Indiana. Michigan has missed covering the spread by a combined 45 points the last two weeks. They look to be vastly overrated and Harbaugh’s future is now very much in doubt. The team just isn’t very good. Wisconsin has won four of the last six against Michigan. Not only were they favored in all four wins, those four wins were all by double digits. While it was two weeks ago, the Badgers are 4-0 ATS the L4 times they’ve been off a 40+ point game. They’ve also covered 13 of 17 as road favorites. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-14-20 | Oregon -10 v. Washington State | Top | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 69 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON You could pick apart Oregon’s 35-14 win over Stanford win last Saturday. The Cardinal didn’t have their starting QB or top receiver and still moved the ball pretty well. Had their kicker not missed FOUR field goals, it’s obviously a much closer game. But be careful about discounting what the Ducks did. Their offense, in the first game without Justin Herbert, gained almost 500 yards. Washington State’s defense isn’t good so we’re expecting plenty of points and yards from Oregon yet again this week. The big story (from a betting perspective) is that the Ducks are 0-10 ATS the L10 meetings with Wazzu. That is quite the crazy streak. Oregon did snap a 4-game SU losing streak to Wazzu with a 37-35 win in Eugene last year. Now it’s time for the ATS streak to end. We know lots of people are falling in love with last week’s performance by the Cougars new starting QB, Jayden de Laura. But remember that it came against Oregon State. You have to go back to the WSU defense, which gave up a lot of yards (451) and should be picked apart by Tyler Shough and the Ducks offense. Washington State is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been off a SU win. Play on OREGON AAA |
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11-14-20 | Northwestern v. Purdue +3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PURDUE Northwestern is 3-0 but has been pretty lucky to win each of the last two weeks. They trailed Iowa 17-0 before coming back, thanks to three Hawkeyes’ turnovers. They gained just 273 yards in that 21-20 victory. Then the Wildcats were -125 in total yards to Nebraska in a 21-13 win last week where again turnovers were the story. The Cornhuskers gave it away twice in the second half, both times deep inside Northwestern territory. In three games, Northwestern has forced nine turnovers. They probably can’t count on that saving them every week. Nebraska was in the red zone EIGHT times last week, yet came away with only 13 points. This week they go to Purdue to face a Boilermakers team that is also unbeaten (2-0). Purdue had an unexpected bye last Saturday as they were supposed to face Wisconsin, but that game was cancelled due to the Badgers’ COVID outbreak. The Boilermakers have looked good on offense even without All-American WR Rondale Moore. David Bell has 22 catches for 243 yards so far and Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald called HIM “the best receiver in the country.” The Wildcats are just 2-8-2 ATS the L12 times they’ve been favored. Purdue is on a 19-7 ATS run as underdogs. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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11-14-20 | Colorado v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD UPDATE: The following writeup was completed BEFORE the Pac 12 was forced to apologize to Stanford for the inconclusive testing that resulted in last week's COVID-related absences. All of those Cardinal players are now available for Saturday and we're liking this play even more! COVID issues and an opening week loss to Oregon will have many doubting Stanford this week, but not us. The Cardinal will be hosting a Colorado team that is off a 48-42 win over UCLA last Saturday. The Buffaloes were up big in that win (by 28 points), but had to hold off a furious second half rally by the Bruins. The biggest contributing factor to the win was a +4 turnover margin. The defense still gave up 7.0 yards per rush attempt and almost 500 total yards. Stanford should be able to move the ball here, even if it has to go with a backup QB again. Not having starter Davis Mills (COVID) versus a team as good as Oregon was a really tough blow for the Cardinal last week But they still gained over 400 yards with backup Jack West. The problem was that their kicker missed FOUR field goals! If called back into duty, West can again lean on RB Austin Jones, who just had a 100+ yard day against a defense that’s much better than the one he’ll face this week. Speaking of field goal issues, Colorado’s kicker just retired! The Buffs are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and they were the underdog in all four. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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11-14-20 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette -15.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 64 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOUISIANA The last two weeks have seen South Alabama fall short against Ga Southern and Coastal Carolina - by scores of 24-17 and 23-6. Now they have to play a third consecutive road game against who we still consider to be the top team in the Sun Belt, Louisiana. The Jaguars have just one road win in their last 16 tries and are 2-23 SU its L25 games as an underdog. While the Ragin Cajuns also lost to Coastal Carolina this year, they would probably still be favored in a rematch. They can potentially earn that rematch by winning Saturday as that would clinch the Sun Belt’s Western Division. (Coastal Carolina leads the East). Coastal Carolina is Louisiana’s only loss of 2020. The Ragin Cajuns have beaten Iowa State and since the CC loss are 3-0 and averaging 446.7 yards of offense. The defense is in the Top 20 in the country in passing yards allowed. Louisiana has beaten S Alabama four years in a row and was actually favored by 27.5 on the ROAD last season. While they didn’t cover the spot, this number is far more manageable and they’re at home this time. While all of Louisiana’s conference games so far have been decided by 10 points or less, they’ve been facing some of the better teams. This is their easiest game to date. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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11-13-20 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -27.5 | Top | 17-55 | Win | 100 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is one of seven teams in the country that’s 6-0 or better. Other than Notre Dame and Alabama, some of the names on that list might surprise you. But the Bearcats are no joke. This is a legit top 10 team in the country right now that has absolutely been destroying its opponents. They’ve averaged 43 points the previous three games and that was against SMU, Memphis and Houston, three of the better teams in the American Athletic Conference. The defense is allowing just 11.7 points/game for the season and hasn’t given up more than 13 since allowing a season-high 20 in the opener vs. Austin Peay. While laying this many points presents a bit of a challenge, we just can’t see Cincy having any difficulty with a 1-5 East Carolina team that’s giving up 37.3 points/game. The Pirates ran for only 35 yards on 29 attempts in a 38-21 loss to Tulane last week, which was at home. They shouldn’t expect to be able to run the ball here either as the Bearcats’ defense is 10th best in the country at stopping the run. This should be a very easy win for the favorite. Lay it! Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER We expect a hot start from both offenses on Thursday when the Colts take on the Titans. Indianapolis actually dominated the first half against Baltimore last week, owning a huge edge in total yards. They didn’t make the most of it though and ended up losing the game 24-10. They are still scoring an average of 26.0 points as last week was their lowest scoring effort of 2020. Tennessee didn’t have its best offensive showing last week either. They were held to a season-low in yardage (224). It was actually the defense that led the way in a 24-17 win over Chicago. But be careful about putting too much stock in that performance. The Bears offense isn’t good. The Titans defense had really been struggling on third down this season before holding Chicago to 2 of 15. In the first seven games, the Titans were allowing opponents to convert at 62% on third down. The Colts defense has put up good numbers, but also faced a lot of bad offenses. Tennessee is 7th in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.0 points/game and they are averaging 33.0 at home. Play the OVER AAA |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State OVER 61 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Colorado State is 1-1. They lost 38-17 to Fresno State in their opening game, but then bounced back to defeat Wyoming 34-24 last week in the annual “Border War.” Boise State (2-1) fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week with an embarrassing 51-17 home loss to BYU. But it's critical to point out that the Broncos were down to their third string quarterback last Friday and their top running back was also injured. Whether or not the injured players will return this week remains unknown, but we believe Boise coach Bryan Harsin will put together a solid enough game plan to put points on the board Thursday night. The third stringer, true freshman Caleb Fennegan, wasn’t actually all that bad vs. BYU. He threw for two touchdowns and completed 15 of his 26 passes. Colorado State is a much easier opponent than BYU and if called into duty again this week, Fennegan will at least be ready. Boise scored 91 points in its first two games. Colorado State is allowing 448.5 yards/game. No matter who the QB has been for Boise State, they’ve always dominated the Rams. They’ve won all nine meetings and averaged 44.5 points/game in doing so. CSU should score enough to help send this one OVER. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WESTERN MICHIGAN These are probably the best two teams in the MAC’s West Division and if one thing is for certain, it’s that this game is going to be a lot tougher than it was for either side in Week 1. Behind 310 yards rushing, Toledo smoked Bowling Green 38-3 last week. Western Michigan was just as unkind to Akron in a 58-13 blowout. We’ve got some concerns about Toledo though as the Rockets lost all 4 MAC road games last year and did so by an average of 28 points/game. Furthermore, their only two wins in the last six games of 2019 were by a total of five points and came about as a result of the opponents missing on a field goal & two-point conversion. Western Michigan was arguably as talented as any MAC team in 2019 and won all six of its home games. Five of those six wins were by double digits. With this game taking place in Kalamazoo, that’s an edge for the slightly favored Broncos. Also, having lost to Toledo three straight years, this is a big revenge game. We liked what we saw from WMU quarterback Eleby last week and the backs and receivers looked great as well. Toledo QB Peters has some accuracy issues, so be on the lookout for that. Both of these teams are off blowout wins, but the home team is more likely to keep it rolling. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan +9.5 v. Ball State | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EASTERN MICHIGAN You had both Eastern Michigan coming out on the wrong end of close games last week. They both blew second half leads, so you’ll have two teams ready to go Wednesday. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 at Kent State and now hits the road for a second straight week to face a Ball State team that lost 38-31 at Miami, Ohio. Ball State won this matchup last season, but by just points, and before that it had been Eastern Michigan prevailing three straight years. This just looks like too many points in a pretty even matchup. Eastern Michigan is 21-6-1 ATS its last 28 games as a road underdog. So this is a spot they usually do well in. They covered the 5.5-point number last week at Kent State. Ball State did not cover against Miami as they were only 1-point underdogs. If you think that playing at home might help the Cardinals here, know that they are just 12-25 ATS their last 37 games here. Eastern Michigan has pulled 12 outright upsets the last four seasons and that actually includes three against Power 5 teams. Knowing that, a simple cover in this matchup doesn’t seem too challenging. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Both Miami and Buffalo opened 2020 by winning. But both might feel a little fortunate to prevail by the margins that they did. Buffalo’s 49-30 win over Northern Illinois was a byproduct of five Huskies turnovers more than anything else, but at least they still won by 19 points. Miami was only a 38-31 winner over Ball State and had to come back from a double digit deficit (21-10) to do so. Now we had the RedHawks so that comeback made us quite happy. But we recognize a shaky start when we see one. Though they came back and won last week, losing starting QB Brett Gabbert wasn’t ideal. (As of press time, it’s unclear whether Gabbert will return this week). Buffalo might be the best team in the MAC this year. They were picked by many to win the conference last year, but a loss to Miami played a significant role in the Redhawks going on to capture the crown. The Bulls had 133 more yards than the Redhawks in last year’s game and the defense allowed just 2.6 yards per rush attempt. Being -4 in turnovers is what cost them. Buffalo’s defense was tops in scoring among MAC teams in 2019 and seven starters are back from that group. They scored THREE touchdowns last week and will be the difference in this revenge spot. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 153 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER These Patriots aren’t the same Patriots we’re used to seeing. Bill Belichick is already missing Tom Brady as the team is an uncharacteristic 2-5 after seven games. Yet it could be worse. The Jets are 0-8 and easily the worst team in the league. New York is expected to turn to Joe Flacco tonight as Sam Darnold is dealing with a shoulder injury. But there’s no way we’re laying this massive number with a team (NE) that’s lost its last four games. We like the Over. With scoring at an all-time high in 2020, this total is just too low, even with Flacco as one of the starting QBs. While the Jets are last in offense, they do give up 29.8 points/game. We fully expect the Patriots to come through with their highest scoring game in over a month here. Last week they put up 21 on Buffalo and it would have been more had Cam Newton not fumbled late in the red zone. The Newton-led offense has scored 30 or more twice this year. For the Jets, their only other primetime game (Week 4 vs. Denver) produced their highest scoring game of the season and that was with Flacco playing most of the game. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 50.5 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 43 m | Show |
THis is an 8* on the OVER We had the Over when these teams met in Week 1 and had the Over in both of their games last week. All three Over bets were victorious. The Over is 7-0 in Saints games for the year. Given that, this number is way too low. Last week was the first Saints game this season where 50 combined points were scored. It was 49 and that was against an all defense/no offense team (the Bears). Saints games are averaging 57.5 points. Five of the seven have gotten to 57. Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are averaging 30.9 points/game. They are averaging 35.7 at home. It wasn’t their finest game Monday against the Giants. But that was on the road. The two weeks prior saw them score 45 (on the road) and 38. Also, look who’s back this week. New Orleans will welcome back WRs Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Chris Godwin is expected to play for Tampa Bay and they just signed Antonio Brown. The Over is 17-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 22 games, so they’ve been an Over machine as well. The Over is 4-2 when Brees faces off with Brady. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-08-20 | Dolphins v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Two of the league’s surprises meet here as 4-3 Miami goes to 5-2 Arizona. Off their bye, the Dolphins beat the Rams last week 28-17. It was a nice win, but one that saw very little offense. With Tua Tagovailoa starting for the first time, the Dolphins offense gained just 145 total yards. They beat the Rams because they had a defensive touchdown, a punt return for touchdown and forced four turnovers, one of which led to a drive that started goal to go. It was the Rams that gained 471 yards. So Miami was outgained more than 3:1 and still won. The offense will have to be better this week against an Arizona team off its bye. Last we saw Kyler Murray, he was leading his team to an upset of Seattle two weeks ago. The Cardinals are the only team to beat the Seahawks. The offense has scored at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. The defense ranks Top 10 against the pass, so look for Tua to have another rough day. The Dolphins have been favored in just one game all year, so its a real surprise they have a winning record. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Bills | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -116 | 122 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE (money line) This looks to be a good game on paper with the 6-1 Seahawks taking on the 6-2 Bills. But even though both lead their respective divisions, we feel one side is clearly better than the other. Buffalo has actually been pretty mediocre in spite of its good record. They were a bit lucky to get by the Patriots last week as a 24-21 win needed a late Cam Newton fumble. It was the Bills’ 5th win by one score this season. Seattle, it could be argued, is in discussion for the league’s best team. They’re only loss this year came in overtime. They too have some close wins, but they’ve also scored at least 31 points in all but one game. Russell Wilson is on pace for what would be a record-setting season of 4900 yards passing and 600 yards rushing. His two leading receivers - Metcalf and Lockett - both already have 500+ yards and seven touchdowns! The defense has its issues, but Jamal Adams is set to come back. Buffalo has failed to cover four in a row. Seattle is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games with a spread of three points or less. Plus they are 11-4-1 ATS L16 on the road. They will win this game. Play on SEATTLE (MONEYLINE) AAA |
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11-08-20 | Panthers v. Chiefs OVER 52.5 | Top | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 122 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the OVER Carolina-Kansas City is one of eight games on the Week 9 slate with a total of 50 or higher, matching a season-high. It’s a game that should end up even higher scoring than expected. The Chiefs offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, certainly needs no introduction.They are putting up 31.6 points/game. The last two games have seen them score 43 and 35. Mahomes has a 21-1 TD-INT ratio and COULD get Sammy Watkins back this week after the WR missed the last three games. With or without Watkins KC is gonna score on the Panthers defense which often fails to generate a lot of pressure. Carolina’s offense could be better, but the potential return of Christian McCaffrey would be the *chefs kiss* in going against a Chiefs defense giving up a ton of rush yards every week (29th in yards allowed). Like Watkins, McCaffrey’s possible return should just be treated as a “bonus.” We like the Over even if neither returns this week. The Over is on a 23-11 run when Carolina is a road underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-08-20 | Texans -6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston has just one win in 2020. It was against Jacksonville. That’s who the Texans face again this week. This time the Jaguars will be starting a rookie quarterback named Jake Luton, a sixth round choice out of Oregon State. The Jags have lost their last six games and haven’t covered the spread in any of the last five. This is one of the worst teams in the league. Houston hasn’t played well and has the same 1-6 SU record as well as being 1-6 against the spread. But they have more talent than Jacksonville. Who would you rather have - Luton or DeShaun Watson? Watson is undefeated in five career starts vs. the Jaguars. It was 30-14 earlier this year as the Texans offense put up a season-most 487 yards. The Jaguars are 28th in rushing yards allowed. They’ve also given up 30 or more points in six straight games. The Texans are 11-2 L13 vs. Jacksonville and 16-4 L20. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina -18 | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -109 | 106 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina is 6-0 and we had them last week when they absolutely bludgeoned Georgia State 51-0. QB Grayson McCall returned (from an injury) and threw for four touchdowns and ran for another. The Chanticleers are now the #15 ranked team in the country. After being a short favorite each of the last two weeks, they turn around to host a South Alabama team that simply isn’t on the same level. The Jaguars started their campaign with an upset of Southern Miss on the road. But the only road game they’ve played since was a 24-17 loss at Georgia Southern last Thursday. The win against Southern Miss, not a good team by the way, is the Jaguars only road win in their last 15 tries. Let’s not forget they are 2-22 SU the last 24 games as an underdog. Coastal Carolina has covered every game but one this year. They’ve won five straight against the Sun Belt and already beaten some of the conference’s best this year. Certainly, they should have little difficulty winning Saturday. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-07-20 | Clemson v. Notre Dame OVER 51.5 | Top | 40-47 | Win | 100 | 106 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Clemson vs. Notre Dame has lost some of its luster with Trevor Lawrence not playing (COVID). But it’s still a top five matchup that should be plenty of fun. D.J. Uiagalelei is Lawrence’s backup. Clemson still put up 34 last week in his first start. We realize this is a tougher defense than Boston College and the true freshman’s first road start. But don’t fool yourself into thinking the Tigers aren’t going to put up a decent number here. Uiagalelei threw for 342 yards and two scores last week. Travis Etienne is the ACC’s all-time leading rusher. Notre Dame’s defensive numbers, somewhat, are a byproduct of facing a string of bad offensive teams. But Clemson’s cause is done no favors by the injuries on their defensive side. Notre Dame is averaging almost 35 points/game. Ian Book is a really good QB and the Fighting Irish are going to score more than most previous Clemson opponents. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-07-20 | Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Baylor was down 30-0 last week (at home!) to TCU last week before it decided to wake up and “start playing.” By then, it was obviously too late and they still ended up losing 33-23. Now the Bears go to Ames to face Iowa State, who won 52-22 last week against Kansas. The Cyclones just barely covered the spread in that one, scoring a late TD to push them over the four TD threshold (spread). They aren’t scoring that many this week. Not even close. Kansas is the worst defensive team in the Big 12. On the bright side, ISU isn’t likely to give up that many either. Baylor has averaged 20.0 points/game the last three weeks, all losses. They haven’t scored more than 23 against anyone besides Kansas. They can’t run the ball (75 or less rush yards in all three games). Under is 31-16-2 in the past 53 games where Iowa State is the favorite. It’s also 5-0-1 the last six times they’ve been off a win by 20 or more points. 9-1-1 after a game where they scored 40 or more points. Baylor is 6-1-1 Under off a SU loss. Under is 4-1 last five meetings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-07-20 | Florida +3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 102 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA We’ve got a showdown in the SEC East this weekend with Florida taking on Georgia in what we can safely say will NOT be a “Cocktail Party.” Florida lost earlier this year to Texas A&M, but losing by three on the road to that opponent shouldn’t be considered bad at all. It was considered “bad” at the time, only because Florida was favored and in hindsight they should not have been. (A&M was off a bad loss to Alabama and hadn’t really looked good). But after a two-week hiatus (COVID), the Gators responded with a 41-17 thumping of Mizzou last week. Now they are underdogs for the 1st time. Their offense has been fantastic so far, scoring at least 38 in every game. QB Trask has at least 4 TD passes in every game as well. Remember that Georgia’s defense gave up 41 to Alabama and is now banged up minus star safety LeCounte and DL Rochester. Georgia’s QB Stetson Bennett has not looked all that impressive. Give us the better offensive team taking points. The Dawgs have scored just 38 points total the last two games. Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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11-07-20 | Texas Tech v. TCU -8 | Top | 18-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TCU TCU got their act together in a 33-23 win against Baylor last Saturday. Now they return to Fort Worth to play a Texas Tech that hasn’t really been able to get it together all season. The Red Raiders just gave up 62 points in a loss to Oklahoma last week. It was their second time losing while giving up 60+ this season. Their only Big 12 win was against West Virginia, a game where they got outgained by nearly 100 yards. But a late defensive TD put them over the top there. The only other win this season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then they allowed 600 yards and had to fend off a late 2-point try. TCU is 2-0 on the road, but 0-3 at home. It's just a matter of time until they rectify that discrepancy. The Horned Frogs were up 30-0 last week on Baylor. Meanwhile, Texas Tech gave up 48 in the first half to Oklahoma. These are teams going in opposite directions. The Red Raiders are 2-8 ATS L10 road games. Play on TCU AAA |
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11-07-20 | Liberty +15 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY You may not know it, but Liberty has one of the best records in the country. The 25th ranked Flames are 5-0, though they haven’t really beaten anyone of substance. The expectation this week is clearly that they’ll suffer their first loss. But might the oddsmakers be writing them off too much? We think so. While this is the first time since 2002 that a team at 5-0 or better has been a double digit dog to a team with two or more losses, that last instance saw the underdog (Notre Dame) pull an outright upset. Liberty averages 40 points/game, so it’s going to be hard for Virginia Tech to score enough to cover the number in this one. Sure, the Hokies will probably hold the Flames under their season scoring average, but they are still going to have to score a lot of points. Liberty is going to put up a fair number here as Va Tech has allowed at least 31 points in half of its games. The Hokies gave up almost 550 total yards last week to Louisville. They allowed well over 600 to North Carolina. Liberty may not be UNC but they are good enough to cover the spot. Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia v. Texas -6.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas was overrated at the start of the season, but now we’re getting a pretty good value on the Longhorns as they prepare to host West Virginia this Saturday. The ‘Horns have lost twice but easily could have won both of those games. The Oklahoma game went to four overtimes while the TCU game saw UT fumble at the goal line. Now UT has won twice in overtime so far, including last week’s 41-34 upset of Oklahoma State. But we don’t think you can trust a WVU side that has lost both of its road games thus far. The Mountaineers are off their best win so far, 37-10 over Kansas State, but the Wildcats were playing with a backup QB. Texas went to Morgantown last year and won easily, 42-31. Based on that, you’d think they should easily win in Austin. QB Sam Ehlinger hasn’t played as well as some would hope, but the Longhorns offense still averages 44.3 points/game, which is 10th best in the entire country right now. WVU just isn’t very good on the road and getting this number on the “right side” of 7 seems ideal. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +3 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -105 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOISE STATE Undefeated BYU (7-0) is set for its toughest test of 2020 when they hit the blue turf in Boise Friday night. Boise State is also undefeated, although just 2-0 (both straight up and against the spread). BYU is 6-1 ATS but it’s really important to look at who they’ve played. Other than Houston, most of the opponents can be found near the bottom of the FBS power rankings. They have been a two touchdown favorite (or more) in five games and a 24 (or more) point favorite in four games. The last two weeks they were favored by 29 and 30.5 points at home vs. Texas State and Western Kentucky. Boise State is the best team they will play all season. The Broncos are not used to being home underdogs. This is only the second time it’s happened in the regular season in the last 15 years. The other time was two years ago vs. Fresno State and they won that game outright, 24-17, getting 2.5 points. Not only is this a chance for Boise State to knock off a 7-0 team, it’s a revenge spot too. BYU gave them their only regular season loss last year 28-25 in Provo. The Cougars are 0-5 all-time here in Boise though. Play on BOISE STATE AAA |
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11-05-20 | Packers -4 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY This is a significant revenge game on the Green Bay side. They lost twice to San Francisco last season. Neither game was really competitive either with final scores of 37-8 and 37-20. But it will be a much different 49ers team they face Thursday night. It won’t at all resemble the 2019 version. Really, it’s going to be quite the “skeleton crew.” Not only are there injuries to QB Garoppolo and TE Kittle, but the team is now dealing with a COVID outbreak that claimed the likes of WR Aiyuk (who had been playing well) and OL Trent Williams. The 49ers just don’t have much to offer here on a short week. The Packers won’t have much sympathy though. Coming out of a 28-22 loss to the Vikings last week, they know they can’t afford to lose this game. Wouldn’t you know the Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS off their previous six losses. We took them in this exact spot against Houston two weeks ago, a game they won 35-20. They may be thin at running back, but Aaron Rodgers is still taking snaps and this offense put up 400+ yards in a loss last week. Don’t see Green Bay losing for a third time in four weeks as a favorite. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -15.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEVADA Nevada should run wild in this Thursday night matchup. They are 2-0 and up against a Utah State team that hasn’t been able to stop anyone so far. The winless Aggies are allowing 40 points/game. Nevada has scored 37 points in both of its wins. The Wolf Pack defense should also get a chance to “show off” Thursday as the Utah State offense has only been able to manage 20 points in two games. Nevada is a team that has been able to cover six of its last seven games (going back to last season) including both so far in 2020. They are led by QB Strong who is completing 75% of his passes with zero interceptions. He has 770 yards passing in two games. Last week vs. UNLV, Strong and this Nevada offense gained 9.2 yards/play! The Wolf Pack have revenge for a 36-10 loss on the road to Utah State last season. That was a much stronger Utah State team, however. This year should be a Nevada blowout. Utah State is only 7-19 ATS its last 26 times as an underdog. Play on NEVADA AAA |
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11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -2 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH In case you forgot, Miami won the MAC last year. They are on a 23-8 SU run in conference play and have won eight in a row at home, which is where they open the season. The RedHawks had a lead in every game in 2019 and will return a bulk of the players from that team. The season opens with Ball State visiting Oxford and Miami certainly remembers how it lost to the Cardinals in last year’s regular season finale. With the MAC East already clinched, they led 27-14 at halftime and decided to pull starters. From that point on, Ball State had a 17-1 edge in first downs and won 41-27. Ball State had plenty of offense last year, but also gave up 31.4 points/game. They did not have a good record in close games (while Miami did). Still, even if you think that was a case of “bad luck,” this line seems short given the offensive talent Miami returns. They are 8-2 ATS the L10 home games and 14-4 ATS L18 conference games. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA |
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11-04-20 | Western Michigan v. Akron +18 | Top | 58-13 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AKRON Since going 13-1 in 2016 under PJ Fleck, Western Michigan has lost six games each of its three seasons under Tim Lester. The team was probably better than 7-6 a season ago, but the Broncos probably shouldn't be expected to win big Wednesday even though the opponent is Akron. The Zips did not win a single game in 2019 (0-12) under Tim Arth, but should be a lot more competitive this year. They are certainly more experienced. Kato Nelson is a good QB with a solid receiving corps to throw to. The defense has 11 of its top 16 tacklers back. Western Michigan is breaking in a new starting QB and RB. This most unusual offseason and the fact they open on the road have us believing the Broncos may struggle more than expected in this one. They are just 1-7 ATS their last eight road games and 1-5 ATS their last six times as a road favorite. Play on AKRON AAA |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants OVER 46.5 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 154 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Coming off a 45-point effort last week vs. Las Vegas and a 38-point effort the week before that (vs. Green Bay), Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense should be in for another big night Monday against the Giants. This Giants defense has struggled to defend the pass (21st in air yards allowed) even though they have already faced four backup quarterbacks! The Buccaneers are averaging 31.7 points/game for the year, so they’ll obviously do most of the scoring here. They are a huge favorite and for good reason. New York is already guaranteed to lose six of its first eight games for the fourth straight season. That’s the worst such active streak in the league right now. While the Giants don’t score much, they are averaging 17.4 points/game, which would be enough to help send this Over presuming Tampa Bay hits its own scoring average. The Buccaneers have allowed 20 or more points three of the last four games. The Over is 20-8 in the Bucs last 28 road games. Over is also 4-1 in the Giants’ last five as a road underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42.5 | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER All the focus is going to be on the Cowboys offense in this one with Ben Dinucci, a 7th round rookie, making his first start. But you can’t forget about how bad this Dallas defense has been in giving up an average of almost 35 points/game. That’s the most in the league and really notable considering how low this total is Sunday night. The Eagles have given up 30 or more points three times themselves. They give up 28.0 points/game. Carson Wentz has played better the last three weeks, a stretch which has seen Philadelphia average 26.3 points. They had over 400 yards last week despite scoring only 22 vs. the Giants. No Eagles game has seen less than 43 points scored. We know it may not have been the case last Thursday vs. the Giants (when we won with the Under) but two bad teams can easily produce a high-scoring game with mistakes. Don’t be surprised if there’s a defensive touchdown in this game. Over is 5-0 for Philly the past five times they’ve been off a game with 350+ total yards. Over is 7-2 for Dallas off a loss by 14 or more points. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears OVER 45 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Taking the Bears Over may sound risky given that they didn’t score an offensive TD Monday night. But they are playing the Saints, who have gone Over in every game this season. As per usual, Drew Brees and the Saints offense are putting up a lot of points. They’ve scored at least 24 in every game and are averaging 30.0 per game. This is a very low total for a Saints game. Every single one of their games has seen at least 51 total points scored. The offensive production has come in spite of missing Michael Thomas most of the way. But Chicago does have a chance in this game and that’s because of the Saints defense, which is nowhere near as good as it was a year ago. That unit ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency and has allowed six passes of 48+ yards the last four games. They’ve allowed the second most TD passes in the league, trailing only Atlanta. Nick Foles will make a couple big plays in this one. He threw an interception in the end zone last week. All we probably need from the Bears is 20-21 points and that’s basically what they are averaging this year (19.7). Play on OVER AAA |
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11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 7* on SEA Seattle lost last week, the first time all season that’s happened, but it took overtime. We don’t think this line should have dropped as far as it has, based on one loss. The Seahawks offense is still as good as any in the league. They’ll be facing a good 49ers defense here. But the issue for the Niners is their offense, which just won’t be able to keep up. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t Kyler Murray, the quarterback that beat Seattle last week. The Seahawks defense is most susceptible to the pass, but we don’t see Garoppolo and the Niners taking full advantage of that. Despite the third shortest average pass distance, “Jimmy G” has the fifth highest interception rate since the start of last year. Making that many mistakes while playing it conservative is pretty rare. This is a home game for Seattle. They are 31-8 straight up the week after a loss and have covered 13 of the last 17 games with San Francisco. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-01-20 | Chargers -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAC The Chargers didn’t win any division games last year. They appeared well on their way to winning one earlier this year when they led the Chiefs by 11 in the second half of Week 2. But they lost that game in overtime. Close losses have haunted this franchise in recent years but the Bolts left nothing to chance last week when they defeated Jacksonville 39-29. While just their second win of the season, we think it’s the start of what looks to be a favorable stretch for the team. They are 4-1-1 ATS and this week are in Denver to face a Broncos team that has scored more than 21 points in only one game all year and that was vs. the Jets. Justin Herbert may be a rookie, but he’s already surpassed Denver’s Drew Lock, who has the league’s third worst QBR over the past two weeks. Since the start of 2017, LA is 7-2-1 ATS as an away favorite. The Broncos lost by 27 last week and while that was to the Chiefs, they are now 0-3 at home with two of those losses by 18 or more. They also have the league’s second worst turnover differential, so be on the look out for that. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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11-01-20 | Titans -5.5 v. Bengals | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -109 | 123 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEN Tennessee is off its first loss of the season, but it came by just three points (27-24) to a team that also came into last week unbeaten (Pittsburgh). The Titans are 16-7-2 ATS the past 25 times they’ve been off a loss. Our expectation here is they are going to put up a lot of points on a Cincinnati team that always seems to be close, but can’t get over the hump. The Bengals’ record is 1-5-1 after a 37-34 home loss to Cleveland last week where they gave up the game winning touchdown late. It was their fourth loss by five points or fewer this season. While the Bengals are 5-1 ATS the last 6 weeks (only loss to Baltimore), one of the league’s worst defenses is really going to struggle to contain Ryan Tannehill and a very good Titans offense that is averaging 36 points/game over the last three weeks. The Cincinnati offensive line does not do a good job at protecting rookie Joe Burrow and he figures to be running for his life in this one. The Bengals have allowed the most sacks in the league while the Titans lead in takeaways. The Bengals defense is now worse after trading its best pass rusher, Carlos Dunlap. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-31-20 | LSU -2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 11-48 | Loss | -118 | 101 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU LSU is still being penalized for its two early season losses. The defensive showings vs. Mississippi State and Missouri were definitely both bad, but let’s not forget the extenuating circumstances of that game vs. Mizzou, which was moved from Baton Rouge to Columbia because of the hurricane. Even without starting QB Myles Brennan, the Tigers looked great last week in demolishing South Carolina 52-24. That performance was closer to what you should expect from the Tigers as opposed to those two losses. LSU definitely can score no matter who the QB is. Freshman TJ Finley looked great last week, so if he’s called on again, we expect him to answer the bell. The Tigers are averaging 42.0 points/game and have scored at least 41 each of the last three games. Auburn has not been impressive so far as they are lucky to even be 3-2. They could have easily lost games vs. Arkansas and Ole Miss and have been outgained on the season. QB Bo Nix is inconsistent and will be facing a defense that has already forced 10 turnovers in four games. Auburn has zero turnovers in its three wins, but we are expecting them to give it away multiple times here. Play on LSU AAA |
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10-31-20 | Rice v. Southern Miss UNDER 58.5 | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 100 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Southern Miss is now on to its THIRD head coach of the season, which should tell you all you need to know about the season they are having. The Golden Eagles are now 1-4 and the 56 points allowed to Liberty last week wasn’t even a season-worst. (They allowed 66 to Tulane). Rice is 0-1 after its now famous “quadruple doink” (missed FG) against Middle Tennessee last week. They lost 40-34 in overtime. But despite that score and how many points Southern Miss has been allowing, we think this game stays Under. For Rice, last week was the most total points in any game since 2017. Their defense was actually quite good in 2019 as it yielded an average of just 24 PPG in conference play. Some key absences in the secondary last week led to a worse than expected performance on third down. They should do better this week against a Southern Miss team that is in tatters. While Southern Miss has given up at least 31 points in every game, we’re not sure Rice gets there this week. The Under is 7-3 for Rice the week following an ATS loss. Southern Miss is actually favored here and the Under is 7-2 the last nine times that’s been the case at home. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina -2.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 51-0 | Win | 100 | 97 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CC #20 Coastal Carolina stayed unbeaten last week with a 28-14 win over Georgia Southern. The defense certainly did its job in shutting the Eagles out in the second half while holding them to just 218 total yards for the game. The Chanticleers won despite not having QB Grayson McCall. You’ll want to note that his backup, Fred Payton, threw three touchdown passes last week. That’s really not too surprising as Payton has started 10 games over the previous two seasons. Coach Jamey Chadwell is “cautiously optimistic” that McCall will return this week, but either way we’re in on the Chanticleers to get the victory over Georgia State. The Panthers have lost 7 of 10 to teams with winning records and already have suffered close losses to Louisiana and Arkansas State this season. They were also outgained 447-379 by Troy last week in a 36-34 win. The defense has given up nearly 1,000 passing yards its last two games! The offense is missing a starting receiver. Georgia State has never beaten a ranked team before while CC has won 5 of its last 6 games where the line is three points or less. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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10-31-20 | Temple +4.5 v. Tulane | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEMPLE Tulane is just 2-4 thus far so we don’t think they are a very strong candidate to be laying points right now. They have blown big leads in two of those losses, to Navy and Houston, but also had a big rally of their own to defeat South Alabama. Half of their games have been decided by a field goal. They’ve also lost three in a row, two of those coming by at least 17 points. The defense is giving up a lot of points, 35.3 per game to be exact, so Temple should be able to score enough to stay within the number this week. Now the Owls could easily be 0-3 if not for their own rally vs. South Florida. But they only lost by two at Navy and then were more competitive than the scoreboard showed vs. Memphis last week. They had the yardage edge and more first downs. They actually gained 500 yards for the game. The problem was they turned the ball over four times. We mentioned the Tulane defense is giving up a lot of points. Well, they are also giving up lots of yards. Over the last three games, they’ve allowed 1,746 total yards! They gave up 689 to UCF last week. This is a game where you’ll want to take the points. Play on TEMPLE AAA |
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10-31-20 | Purdue -6.5 v. Illinois | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PURDUE Purdue opened its season with a bit of an upset. They beat Iowa 24-20 as a 3.5-point home dog, scoring a late TD to get the win. Consider that they were without their best player (WR Rondale Moore) and head coach Jeff Brohm due to COVID-19. While it remains unclear if Moore is going to be back this week, Brohm is planning on being back on the sidelines. The Boilermakers certainly have enough pieces to dominate lowly Illinois, who lost 45-7 to Wisconsin last week. The only Illini touchdown came from the defense and now they go up against a team that allowed just three points in the second half last week. This is also a revenge game for Purdue as they shockingly lost to Illinois, 24-6, last season. They haven’t beaten the Boilermakers back to back years since 2001-02. Not only was the offense non-existent for the Illini last week, the defense was also bad. They forced just one incompletion on 21 attempts! Play on PURDUE AAA |
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10-30-20 | Hawaii -1.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -109 | 83 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HAWAII It feels good to have LATE night action during the week, thanks to the Mountain West getting its season underway. Hawaii will be looking to start 2-0 while Wyoming is hoping to avoid 0-2. Hawaii won 34-19 last week over Fresno State, really running over the Bulldogs defense. Not only did they run for over six yards per carry, but the Warriors finished the game with 323 yards rushing and 552 yards total! Stopping the run wasn’t an issue for the Wyoming defense last week, but it did allow 420 yards passing as it fell 37-34 in overtime at Nevada, a game they closed as 2.5-point favorites. It is important to note that the Cowboys only lead in that game came in overtime when they kicked a field goal after the first possession. They quickly gave up the game-winning touchdown not long after. At one point, Wyoming was down as much as 22 points. But the big news coming out of the game was the leg injury to QB Sean Chambers that probably will cause him to miss the rest of the season. Remember that Hawaii won 10 games last year and appeared in the Conference Title Game. Todd Graham takes over for Nick Rolovich (who went to Washington State) and should do well here. We know they came back last week, but losing Chambers is a huge blow to Wyoming’s season. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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10-29-20 | Colorado State -1.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Colo State So Colorado State did not play last week. Fresno State did. The reason for that discrepancy is that CSU’s game at New Mexico was waved off due to COVID. Fresno State probably wishes it had not played as they were a 34-19 loser to Hawaii. The Bulldogs actually took an early 7-0 lead in the game, scoring soon after a Hawaii turnover. But it was their own turnovers (four of them) that proved costly. Plus the defense was terrible, giving up 552 yards, 323 of which came on the ground. Both these Mountain West teams are breaking in first year coaches. Kalen DeBoer is already 0-1 for FSU, Steve Addazio is now looking to avoid the same start in Fort Collins. The Rams won this game last year, 41-31, despite being a 13.5-point underdog. That was right here in Fresno. CSU has now beaten Fresno State three years in a row, scoring 34 or more points every time. The Rams have covered five in a row as favorites, which they are here thanks to a line move. They are also 8-2 ATS L10 Thursday games. Play on COLORADO STATE AAA |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 25-17 | Loss | -120 | 85 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 10* on CAROLINA Atlanta is a sinking ship right now, playing for a lame duck interim coach. It almost seems as if they invent new ways to blow games. They have blown fourth quarter leads in half of their six losses. The most recent being last week against Detroit where had Todd Gurley simply NOT scored a touchdown with 1:04 left, they could have kicked a game winning field goal with no time left. Instead, Gurley did score and that gave the Lions the ball back. They drove 75 yards down the field in 64 seconds and won the game 23-22. Now one loss where the Falcons did not blow a fourth quarter lead was against Carolina three weeks ago. They trailed in that one pretty much throughout and the 23-16 loss ended up getting Dan Quinn fired. We look for the Panthers to pull off the season sweep Thursday night. This time, they are likely to have Christian McCaffery in the lineup. In three road games, the Atlanta defense has yielded an average of 31.0 points/game. They are now on an 8-21 ATS slide in the month of October. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 156 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAR Chicago has been a clear overachiever to this point. In four of their five wins, they’ve gone off as the underdog. An outright win Monday night would match a record with five upsets wins in the first seven games. We don’t see that happening though. The Rams are off a loss at San Francisco where they went off as a three-point favorite. We took the 49ers in that one, feeling the line had moved too much. No such movement this week and we’re comfortable laying points with a team that is 14-8-1 ATS under Sean McVay when laying five or more points. The Rams are also 4-1 ATS the past five as a home favorite. One more trend in their favor is that they are 5-1 ATS off their last six straight up losses. The Bears offense just doesn’t do much. The defense has been bailing them out thus far, however the task will be too tall here as the Rams defense is giving up just 19.0 points/game. In two home games, they’ve allowed just 26 points. They beat the Bears 17-7 last year. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Arizona may have looked good last Monday (we had them!), but this is not a good situation to be facing the undefeated Seahawks. The Cardinals are working on a short week here. Seattle is off a bye. The Seahawks will not play the same kind of mistake-filled football Arizona saw in Dallas Monday night. Russell Wilson is having an MVP-caliber season right now. His team has covered seven straight when playing with AT LEAST seven days rest. They are 3-0 ATS the last three seasons off their bye. The Seahawks’ offense is averaging nearly 34 points per game and almost 7.0 yards per play! Remember that the Cardinals have lost to the likes of the Lions and Panthers, the former coming right here at home. The four teams they’ve beaten - San Francisco, Washington, the Jets and Dallas - aren’t exactly off to great starts. Excluding the 49ers, the other three teams Arizona has beaten are a combined 3-15 SU. They are not in the Seahawks league … yet. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-25-20 | Jaguars v. Chargers OVER 49 | Top | 29-39 | Win | 100 | 127 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Chargers are 1-4 but as is usually the case, they’re losing close. All four losses have been by seven points or less, three of them coming against the Chiefs, Saints and Bucs. Two of those three were in overtime! They are off a bye here and facing a Jaguars team that also has just one win, but has been a lot less competitive in doing so. Jacksonville lost 34-16 at home to Detroit last week, making it five straight games they’ve allowed 30 or more points. All five have been losses. The Chargers offense scored 31 and 27 against Tampa Bay and New Orleans as rookie QB Justin Herbert continues to perform better than expected. He very well could be in for his best day as a pro this week. He might have to be, seeing as the Chargers defense has given up 38 and 30 points in those last two games. Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew has attempted 40 or more passes in each of the last five games. The Over is 7-3 in the Jags previous 10 conference games. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-25-20 | Bucs -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 127 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TB Not sure how bumping this game UP helps the Raiders, who have had to place their entire starting offensive linemen on the COVID-19 list! We liked Tampa Bay BEFORE the unfortunate news hit Las Vegas’ ranks and now this sets up to be an even better spot to take the Bucs. They should overwhelm the Raiders up front. Honestly, the Raiders were going to struggle in pass protection even with their normal starting offensive line. Tampa Bay’s defense is #1 in the league in stopping the run and total yards allowed. They’ve got the second most sacks with 22. Just last week we saw the Bucs beat a previously unbeaten Green Bay team by four touchdowns. Since losing at New Orleans in Week 1, TB has gone 4-1 with that one loss coming by a single point on a Thursday night game. (They probably should have beaten Chicago too). Tom Brady is 21-12 ATS L33 as a road favorite. The Bucs have quietly scored the second most points in the league, are fully healthy on offense and are facing a defense that has given up 30 or more points in four of its five games. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-25-20 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NO New Orleans is dealing with injuries at receiver, but not having Michael Thomas for most of their games hasn’t slowed them down thus far. They’ve scored 30 or more in all but one game this season. So even with Emmanuel Sanders set to be out, we still think the Saints will find a way to put up enough points on the Panthers this week. Look for the offense to lean on Alvin Kamara, who has four straight games of 100+ total yards and has way more receiving yardage than any other back in the league. Remember the Saints are off a bye here, so they’ve had two weeks to prepare for a Panthers team that is starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB. Bridgewater started five games for the Saints last year, so they know him well. Though only 3-2 straight up to this point, October is when the Saints get hot. They are 15-2 ATS in the month of October since 2016, which is the best record in the league over that span. They’ve also covered 21 of the last 31 division games. Carolina didn’t look very good against Chicago last week and has topped 23 points in just two games, both times at home. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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10-25-20 | Lions v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -114 | 124 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATL Atlanta finally won a game! They beat Minnesota last week, handily, 40-23 as a 4-point road underdog. That was the first game since firing Dan Quinn. Interim Raheem Morris now looks to make it two in a row as the Falcons are set to host Detroit this week. The Lions are similar to the Birds in that they too are off a win and probably should have a better record. The Lions have led in all five of their games including by double digits in all three losses! But Atlanta can top that as they held double digit 4th quarter leads in two of its losses. Detroit was off a bye facing Jacksonville last week, so that helped. The last time they won two straight games was when they started 2-0-1 last year. Since then, they’ve won just three of 18 games. They are 3-9 ATS their last 12 games as an underdog. The Lions’ defense is 4th worst in the league right now so look for Falcons RB Todd Gurley to potentially have a repeat of his performance two weeks ago when he went for 121 yards on 14 touches. Atlanta will win its first home game of the season. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-25-20 | Packers -3 v. Texans | Top | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 124 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 6* on GB Green Bay suffered its first loss of the season last week and it came in humiliating fashion, 38-10 at Tampa Bay. But despite giving up 38 unanswered points, the Packers were not necessarily dominated to the degree that you might think. Two Aaron Rodgers’ interceptions, one of which was returned for a TD, really swung that game in the Buccaneers’ direction. Prior to last week’s loss, GB hadn’t turned the ball over once all year. The offense scored 30+ points in each of the first four weeks. Now they’ll face a Texans defense that is in tatters after giving away the lead late last week and losing in overtime to Tennessee. Other than Jacksonville, all of Houston’s opponents have scored at least 28 points. The Texans are 30th in total yards allowed and last against the run. They’ve also allowed 13 passing TDs in six games. So Rodgers should have a nice bounce back game here. He’s already 5-0 ATS off his previous five losses. Houston has not covered (0-4 ATS) as an underdog this season. The Packers are 8-2 ATS L10 vs. AFC teams. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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10-24-20 | Georgia State v. Troy -2.5 | Top | 36-34 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TROY Troy is 3-1 with the three wins all coming against bad teams and the loss being to BYU. They shouldn’t have much trouble defeating a Georgia State team that is simply not very good on the road. The Panthers, now 1-2, gave up 59 points in a loss at Arkansas State last Thursday. It was their second “close” conference loss (also lost 34-31 to Louisiana in OT) but the bottom line is they are now just 2-11 SU L13 road games. We faded them at Arkansas State, noting GSU was listed as a home underdog against East Carolina several weeks ago. Though they did win that game 49-29, it says a lot when you’re an underdog at home to East Carolina. As mentioned at the outset of the analysis, Troy has handled its business as a favorite this year, winning all three times in that role. While they only beat Eastern Kentucky by two, the other two wins were by 33 and 20 points. Georgia State’s defense is allowing over 40 PPG so far and the team/coaching staff has been impacted by COVID-19. Can’t see them winning here. Play on TROY AAA |
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10-24-20 | Virginia Tech -9 v. Wake Forest | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VA TECH Virginia Tech is 3-1 and coming off an impressive 40-14 win over Boston College last Saturday night. The Hokies have scored 38 or more in every game this season. They now face a Wake Forest team that’s won two in a row after an 0-2 start. The Demon Deacons have put up 40 or more in three straight games themselves, but were also the clear beneficiaries of a +3 turnover margin in last week’s 40-23 upset of Virginia. The WF defense is going to have all sorts of problems stopping the run this weekend. They gave up 270 yards rushing to NC State and 218 more to Virginia. Led by Kansas transfer Khalil Herbert, Va Tech has run for at least 260 yards in every game. Wake has covered just once in its last six tries as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also just 2-4 ATS coming off back to back wins. The only time that the Demon Deacons have beaten Va Tech in the last five meetings was an ugly 6-3 win back in 2014. The Hokies won 38-17 last season in Blacksburg and not enough has changed on the WF side to convince us this one will go much better. Lay the points! Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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10-24-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Marshall -16 | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MARSHALL Marshall, along with Arkansas, is one of two 4-0 ATS teams in the country. The Thundering Herd are also 4-0 straight up though and winning in convincing fashion. They’ve posted four double digit victories, the most recent being 35-17 over Louisiana Tech last weekend, while outgaining the opposition by an average of nearly 156 yards/game. We still don’t know a ton about this week’s opponent, Florida Atlantic, who has played just one game thus far. That one game was an uninspiring 21-17 win over Charlotte, which was at home and saw FAU get outgained by almost 100 yards. Marshall is 6-1 all-time vs. FAU with a 36-31 win last year in Boca Raton. The Herd come in averaging 37.3 points per contest and 213.8 yards rushing per game. The one game that FAU played was three weeks ago, so simple stuff like tackling on defense could be an issue for them. The Owls were actually down 21-7 at home in that game vs. Charlotte. Marshall is ranked and a pretty strong team at home. The defense allowed just 7 yards rushing last week and has given up only 38 points on the year! FAU is nowhere near as good as they were last year under Lane Kiffin. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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10-24-20 | Auburn -3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AUBURN Two SEC teams coming off misleading (and probably undeserved) losses last week meet here in Oxford. Auburn lost 30-23 to South Carolina last week, despite leading the whole first half and outgaining the Gamecocks 481-297 for the game. That loss dropped the Tigers to 2-2 and they’d be 1-3 if not for a lucky break against Arkansas. Speaking of Arkansas, Ole Miss’ result from last Saturday was even more misleading as they lost 33-21 to the Razorbacks despite having the edge in total yards. The Rebels turned it over SEVEN times, which was their undoing. In this battle of desperate teams, we like the visitors to walk away with the victory as Ole Miss is ranked last in the country in scoring defense, giving up 47 points/game. Auburn’s run game has gone for 259 and 209 yards the last two weeks behind back Tank Bigsby. That’s how we think they’ll control this one. Can’t see Gus Mahlzan’s team losing two in a row as favorites. Off an SEC loss, Auburn is 8-1 SU the last three seasons. They are also 33-11 all-time vs. Mississippi and won four straight years. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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10-24-20 | NC State +17.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -117 | 98 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NC STATE The “Mack Brown express” ran into a brick wall last weekend, losing 31-28 to 1-win Florida State as a 2 TD road favorite. North Carolina came into that game ranked #5 in the country, but obviously tumbled down the polls by losing to a team that had yet to beat a FBS opponent this season. The Tar Heels return home to Chapel Hill this week, to face in-state rival NC State, who will be without their QB Devin Leary. Because Leary is out, this line has been steamed up to the point the Wolfpack are now a solid value plus the points. While it’s never good to be without your starting QB, NC State has an experienced backup in Bailey Hockman. The North Carolina defense has been gashed the last two weeks, first giving up 45 to Virginia Tech, then 31 in the first half to Florida State. NC State is 4-1 and off three consecutive victories, two of them coming as underdogs. They aren’t going to roll over without Leary. Take away the Virginia Tech game and North Carolina is averaging only 28.3 points in its other three contests this year. We don’t think they can score enough to cover the large spread this week. Play on NC STATE AAA |
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10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB -1.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UAB This is a rare non-conference showdown this season, pitting top teams from the Sun Belt and Conference USA. Louisiana came in with a lot of hype this year after winning 11 games in 2019. They opened 2020 with an upset of Iowa State, but haven’t looked impressive since then. They’ve now been outgained in 3 of 4 games, including the win over Iowa State, and are off a loss - 30-27 to Coastal Carolina - where they were nine-point home favorites. Proud to report we were on the dog in that one as we told you that Louisiana’s two prior wins had been by 2 points and 3 in overtime. They trailed for most of those games (against Georgia State and Georgia Southern). Now the Cajuns must deal with a UAB squad that is 4-1, the only loss coming to Miami FL. The Blazers also played for their conference championship last season and have won three straight in fairly impressive fashion. They beat Western Kentucky 37-14 on Saturday for their 21st consecutive win at home. As you can see, this game takes place in Birmingham. The big problem for Louisiana so far is that they are giving up almost 200 yards/game on the ground. That’s a problem vs. UAB, who averages 175 rush yards/game and is 19th in the country in yards/carry. The UAB defense has allowed an average of just 12.3 points the L3 weeks. Play on UAB AAA |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 44 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 59 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The NFC East is a total joke right now. Despite losing Dak Prescott for the year and getting blown out Monday night, Dallas is still in first place with a 2-4 record. Either the Giants or Eagles will join the Cowboys at 2 wins after Thursday. That is unless they tie, which Philly did earlier in the year against Cincinnati. The Giants were the last team in the division to record a win, doing so last week, appropriately against Washington. They scored just 20 points though and that was with a defensive score. New York is 31st in both yards and points per game offensively and their scoring average of 16.8 PPG would be significantly lower if not for putting up 34 points against the worst defense in the league (Dallas). The Eagles scored 28 last week against the Ravens, but a lot of that came in “garbage time.” Carson Wentz isn’t having a good year at all and TE Zach Ertz is going to be out for at least 3-4 weeks. Running back Miles Sanders will also miss this game. They aren’t turning things around on a short week. The only good news for Eagles fans is that the Giants have topped 16 points on offense in only one game this year (at Dallas), so they won’t be scoring much here. The Under is 5-1 for the Eagles, their last six games as a home favorite while it’s 4-1 for the Giants in their last five as a road underdog. Play on UNDER. AAA |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10.5 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on APP STATE Appalachian State finally gets to return to the field after a several week hiatus. The last time the Mountaineers played a game was September 22nd vs. Campbell, which was a 52-21 win. They host SunBelt foe Arkansas State on Thursday night. The Red Wolves were a winner for us last Thursday, outlasting Georgia State in a wild 59-52 affair, which was their second straight game scoring 50 or more. But they can expect far more resistance in this one, facing a Mountaineers defense that is giving up just 19.3 points/game so far. The most points allowed by App State through three games is 21. Perhaps it’s because they are 0-3 ATS, but this line clearly opened too low. As good as the Arkansas State passing attack has been this year, they couldn’t run the ball against Georgia State (just 1.5 yards/carry) and the defense was atrocious. The defensive coordinator and another coach were both let go with the Red Wolves allowing 481.8 yards/game (worst in the Sun Belt) and 39.8 points/game (2nd worst). App State should be able to run the ball at will in this game as they come in as the number five rushing team in the country at 269.3 yards/game. Play on APPALACHIAN STATE AAA |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 173 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARI Dallas has struggled all season on the defensive side of the ball. Actually, to call it “struggling” would be putting things rather mildly. They have flat out stunk defensively. Even last week, when they won, they gave up 34 points to a Giants team that had previously not scored more than 16 points in any game this season. And the Cowboys needed two field goals in the final two minutes, including the game-winner with no time left, just to come out ahead. Through five games, America’s Team has given up more than 400 yards and 36 points/game. The numbers get even uglier when analyzing just the last four games. Only five defenses have given up more yards per game while no one has allowed more points. But of course, on top of that horrific defense, the bigger story is now the loss of QB Dak Prescott (broke his ankle) for the rest of the season. Prescott was putting up historic numbers and doing his best to counteract the defense. Now it’s Andy Dalton under center. Arizona is coming off an easy 30-10 win over the Jets and should again put up plenty of points on Monday night. The Cardinals are now 8-2-2 ATS L12 road games while Dallas is the only team in the league that hasn’t covered a single game this season. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 149 h 59 m | Show |
10* play on SF So the 49ers played a terrible game last week. They lost 43-17 at home to Miami. It happens. Admittedly, San Francisco should be worried as the week before that they lost at home to Philadelphia. Now they face the prospect of a third consecutive home defeat as the Rams come to town Sunday night. Don’t look for that to happen though. This line “flipped” pretty quickly as it was San Fran that opened as a favorite. The line move has been pretty severe and an overreaction (our opinion) to what happened last week. The Rams are 4-1, but have beaten some pretty weak teams along the way. The last two weeks have seen them get to face the Giants and Washington, who are a combined 1-9. This is the first time all season that the 49ers will be an underdog. It comes at a time when the offense is the healthiest it's been all year. They defeated the Rams both times last year. Let’s just chalk up last week to a “one week thing” as SF should bounce back in primetime this week. They are 5-1 ATS their last six games as an underdog. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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10-18-20 | Ravens v. Eagles OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 142 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER With the exception of the Monday night game vs. Kansas City, Baltimore has run roughshod over the rest of the league, winning four games by 14 points or more. This week they travel to Philadelphia to face a wounded Eagles team that’s 1-3-1 overall and just gave up 38 points to Pittsburgh last week. Seeing as how the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in all of their wins this year, we see this game going Over the total with little drama. The Ravens probably could have scored even more if they “wanted” last week, but with such a commanding lead over the Bengals, they clearly took their foot off the gas in the second half. The Eagles are likely to be playing “catch up” most of the way here and one positive for them is that they have increased their scoring from the previous week in every game this season. But a defense that’s given up an average of 29 points/game while facing some not very good offenses is in for a rough one this week. The Over is 4-0 for Philadelphia the last four seasons in Week 6. That trend stays alive this week. Consider how much scoring we’re seeing across the league this year, this number seems low. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-18-20 | Bears v. Panthers | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -117 | 75 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on CAROLINA Two overachieving teams meet in Charlotte this Sunday with the 3-2 Panthers hosting the 4-1 Bears. What’s really remarkable about those two won-loss records is that the teams have combined to be favored in just ONE game all year. That was when the Bears hosted the Giants and they did not cover the spread! Carolina has won as an underdog each of the last three weeks. We do not see an upset in this game. In three of their four wins this year (Giants being the exception), Chicago has come back from a double digit deficit. They gained just 4.1 yards per play against Tampa Bay last Thursday and were outgained by nearly 100 yards in the game. That they won should be considered a minor miracle. This is an offense that has failed to gain even 300 total yards in either of the two games Nick Foles has started. They have scored just 31 points in those two games. The Carolina defense has looked much improved during the three-game win streak, giving up an average of just 17.7 points/game. A 4-1 team that’s being outgained per play and per game would seem to be rather fraudulent. The Bears are just that and they are 0-5 ATS off their last five ATS wins. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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10-17-20 | Georgia v. Alabama -6 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 101 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ALABAMA Alabama may not have a good recent history as a home favorite of 7 points or less (0-4-1 ATS with four outright losses), but what the Crimson Tide do have here is some serious motivation, coming off last week’s lackadaisical defensive effort vs. Ole Miss. The Tide gave up 48 points and more than 600 yards in one of the worst efforts of the Saban era. With Saban himself testing positive for COVID-19, everyone seems to be counting out Bama this week against Georgia, but not us. The Tide looked just fine to us the first two games, so we’ll call last week a bad matchup. Saban has even suggested Lane Kiffin (former assistant) may have known Bama’s defensive signals. Georgia’s offense is struggling to run the ball, averaging only 3.8 yards/carry. Alabama QB Mac Jones is completing almost 80% of his passes. Saban’s absence from the sidelines would loom large Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, but the home team will still find a way to win … and cover. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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10-17-20 | Boston College +12 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 14-40 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON COLLEGE Just how LETHAL has Boston College been as an underdog? Well, they are already 3-0 ATS this season when taking points. That includes outright wins over Duke when they were +6 (won 26-6) and last week against Pitt when they were +6.5 (won 31-30 in OT). The only non-cover for BC this season was in an uninspiring non-conference game vs. Texas State, which they won 24-21. Going back several seasons, the Eagles are now 20-5-1 ATS their L26 ACC games. As an underdog, that record jumps to 17-2-1 ATS and they’ve won 11 times outright! That can’t be music to the ears of Virginia Tech, who just gave up 56 points last week at North Carolina and is 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has been installed as a double digit favorite. Keep in mind that BC held North Carolina to only 26 points and almost beat them earlier this month. While it’s true Virginia Tech is now healthier at QB and can run the ball, this BC defense hasn’t given up more than 26 points in regulation all year. That BC is 3-0 ATS as a dog despite no real running game of their own is impressive. They are now a passing offense with Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec averaging nearly 300 yards/game. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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10-17-20 | Virginia -3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 23-40 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VIRGINIA Virginia played a really sloppy game last week against NC State, which is why they lost 38-21 as a seven-point home favorite. But please do not make the mistake of judging that game by its final score. The Cavaliers outgained the Wolfpack 405-363. So how did they lose by 17, you ask? Turnovers. There were four of them by UVA (only 1 by NC State). All were costly, especially a late pick-six that broke the game open. Turning it over on downs in the 4Q led to another late NC State TD. This week the Cavaliers are at Wake Forest, who is off a bye, but also is 0-2 vs. the ACC. The Demon Deacons got predictably blown out by Clemson then lost 45-42 at NC State. Their only win was against FCS Campbell. So both teams losses were to the same two teams (with both covering vs. Clemson), the only difference is Virginia actually beat an ACC team (Duke) rather than a FCS one. We know there are some question marks at QB for the Cavaliers (Brennan Armstrong got knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion, another bad break), but backup Lindell Stone looked good enough (save for the pick-six). No matter who is the QB, look for the road team to win Saturday afternoon. Wake Forest’s defense is the worst in the ACC on third down (52.4% conversion rate) while Virginia’s defense is great at stopping the run (allows only 3.4 yds/carry). Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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10-17-20 | South Florida +11 v. Temple | Top | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 93 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF Last week, we told you to fade Temple in its very first game of the season. The Owls lost, 31-29, to a Navy team that had really been struggling this season. While a late 2-pt try could have tied it, Temple never led in the contest, though it did outgain the Midshipmen. Still, that “moral victory” will be of no use here as the Owls are being asked to lay double digits, something they are clearly not ready to do at this juncture of the season. South Florida has been bad, losing three straight by 20 or more points. But two of those were against really good teams (Notre Dame, Cincinnati). We don’t know what to say about last week’s 44-24 home loss to East Carolina. The Bulls secondary actually held up against both ranked opponents and is allowing only 6.6 yards per attempt this year. Including an ATS win at Cincinnati, USF is 5-1 ATS off its previous six ATS defeats, so they tend to bounce back from disappointing efforts. This is enough points for us to feel comfortable in selecting a pretty desperate underdog. Play on USF AAA |
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10-17-20 | Clemson -26.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 73-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON While Clemson had been winning comfortably, they were 0-3 ATS heading into last week’s heavily hyped showdown with Miami. On Saturday night, the Tigers reminded us all why they are considered one of the elite CFB programs in this country. They blew the doors off the Hurricanes, winning 42-17, and easily covered the 14-point spread. Even after a high profile win such as that, Clemson shouldn’t have much trouble covering this larger spread this week at Georgia Tech. Not only are the Yellow Jackets 0-5 ATS their L5 vs. ranked opponents, they have failed to cover all four times in program history when they’ve been an underdog of at least 27 points. Clemson is 16-5 ATS L21 ACC games and 18-7 ATS its last 25 times as a double digit favorite. The last two years, they’ve beaten Georgia Tech 49-21 and 52-14. The Yellow Jackets defense has been really bad this season, even giving up 37 to Syracuse. Last Friday’s 46-27 win over Louisville was a completely misleading final score. The Jackets were actually outgained (gave up 471 yards) but got lucky with a +3 turnover differential. Clemson won’t be so generous here. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston OVER 62.5 | Top | 43-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER While it would be accurate to say both BYU and Houston come into this Friday night matchup “undefeated,” it’s also a tad bit misleading. BYU is 4-0, but Houston is only 1-0 after finally opening its season last Thursday. Still this should be a pretty exciting game. After rolling through its first three games (Navy, Troy, La Tech) by a combined score of 148-24, Brigham Young was finally tested last week and it was by perhaps the unlikeliest of opponents. UTSA, a 34-point underdog, hung close in what was a 27-20 final. That said, BYU did move the ball a lot in that game, gaining 476 yards. But they had issues finishing drives. They fumbled inside the red zone on the opening possession, then turned it over on downs (in UTSA territory) on the second. Don’t worry about a Cougars offense that is averaging 7.8 yards per play thus far. Nor should you worry about a Houston offense that put up 49 points last week despite its own early troubles. QB Clayton Tune had two 1st quarter turnovers (INT, fumble) that were returned for Tulane touchdown, but recovered to throw for over 300 yards. The BYU defense just allowed a season-worst 287 pass yards against UTSA and Tune should easily eclipse that mark. Look for a lot of fireworks in this one. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3.5 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS STATE Arkansas State (2-2) holds a win over Kansas State, which is looking more and more impressive as time wears on. (Kansas State has since gone 3-0 with a win over Oklahoma). The Red Wolves did get their doors blown off at Coastal Carolina, but finally got a home game last Saturday and in it defeated Central Arkansas 50-27. While that’s a FCS team, the Red Wolves have obviously proven they can beat a good team. They are 3-0 ATS besides the games vs. Coastal Carolina, who may be a better team that most realize. As for Georgia State, we know they almost upset Sun Belt standard bearer Louisiana. But they lost that game in overtime. That was almost a month ago. The Panthers’ lone other contest took place 12 days ago and they had little problem beating East Carolina 49-29. That they were 17-point underdogs to Louisiana and a slight underdog at home to ECU should tell you what the market thinks of them. Now COVID-19 played a role in those lines, but we think they are getting a bit too much respect Thursday in Jonesboro. GSU is just 2-10-2 ATS its L14 road games. They won’t win here. Play on ARKANSAS STATE AAA |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina +7.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Coastal Carolina Louisiana won 11 games last year and is currently unbeaten and ranked #21 in the country. They defeated nationally ranked Iowa State in their season opener. But the resume for this Ragin Cajun team isn’t as rosy as you might think. They have been outgained in two of their three games, including the upset of Iowa State, and their last two wins have been by 2 points and 3 in overtime. They did not come close to covering the 17-point spread vs. Georgia State nor the 12-point spread vs. Georgia Southern, even trailing outright for a considerable portion of those two games. In comes Sun Belt rival Coastal Carolina, who is also 3-0 on the road. The Chanticleers have also beaten a Big 12 team this year (Kansas) and scored 95 points in the two wins since. They’ve had excellent line play on both sides of the football. Throw in the fact this game has had to be moved twice and you’ve got all the makings of an upset Wednesday night on ESPN2. Coastal Carolina has covered each of the last four tries as a road underdog while Louisiana is 0-4 ATS the L4 times it has been a favorite. Play on Coastal Carolina AAA |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans UNDER 53.5 | Top | 16-42 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The 4-0 Bills and 3-0 Titans had to wait a couple extra days, but finally get to “hook it up” in a special TUESDAY night edition of the NFL. Tennessee did not play last week as it was a COVID-19 outbreak among their ranks that not only forced a cancellation, but the postponement here. Buffalo was originally going to host Kansas City this Thursday, but that game had to be bumped back to Monday due to the situation here. So by the time these teams do hit the field, there will have already been a lot of moving pieces dealt with. We don’t think either offense is going to be firing on all cylinders given the circumstance and will take the Under. Depending on what your closing line for last week’s game with Las Vegas was, there is a chance that you have the Bills at 4-0 Over. They’ve hit 30+ points three weeks in a row as the offense has greatly exceeded expectations thus far. Tennessee is off two straight 30+ point games, but those might as well have been last season. They are missing multiple receivers now including Corey Davis. This will be the highest total either team has faced so far this season. Under is 20-8-1 Bills L29 road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints OVER 51.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 171 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 10* on LA/NO Over New Orleans has gone Over in every game thus far, scoring 30 or more points themselves three times. They’ve also given up 29 or more points in three straight games. Last week, they won a 35-29 shootout at Detroit. We had the Saints in that one and watched them score touchdowns on five consecutive drives after trailing 14-0 early. They had 29 first downs and this was without WR Michael Thomas, who could be back for this game. As long as Alvin Kamara is part of the offense, it will continue to score. He already has 557 total yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. The Chargers had not gone Over in a game this year until last week’s 38-31 loss to the Buccaneers. That was a wild one and while LA lost, the offense is definitely in better hands with rookie QB Justin Herbert guiding it as opposed to veteran Tyrod Taylor. We think both teams are going to be able to move the ball up and down the field in this Monday nighter and given NFL games are averaging right around 51.5 points for the year, this total is too low considering the Saints are involved. The Over is 6-2 in New Orleans’ last eight MNF appearances, one of those coming three weeks ago vs. Las Vegas. The Over is also 10-4 the Chargers’ L14 games after allowing 30 or more the previous week. The Over is 5-0 the L5 times these teams have met. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys -8 | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS The Cowboys are 0-4 against the spread. The only other winless ATS teams are: the Jets, Texans and Titans. The Titans have played only three games (but are 3-0 straight up!) while the other two teams on that list are both 0-4 SU. The Cowboys are lucky not to be 0-4 SU also. Their only win was a huge comeback at Atlanta. Dak Prescott and the offense are doing just fine, thank you (#1 in yards per game!). But the Dallas defense stinks right now as it is giving up the third most yards and most points per game. That’s where a matchup with the 0-4 Giants comes in. New York’s offense, minus Saquon Barkley, simply isn’t good enough to take advantage of the Dallas defense the same way previous opponents have. The G-Men are averaging the second fewest yards and the fewest points in the league right now. We faded Dallas last week (outright winner with Cleveland!) and while we don’t necessarily trust them to cover the full game spread this week, we expect a fast start. All they need to be is up a touchdown and that seems very doable against a side averaging just 5.5 points per game in the first half this year. Play on DALLAS AAA |