Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -158 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -158 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Oakland may have missed out on its attempt to sweep the Angels Sunday, but their lead in the AL West has grown to 1.5 games thanks to the Astros getting swept over the weekend. The A’s have a very favorable matchup to start the week as they face Seattle, losers of six in a row. The Mariners had it handed to them over the weekend in San Diego where they were outscored 31-7 in the three games. Just as embarrassing was being swept at home by Detroit in the previous series. One of those three games saw them get no-hit. The Mariners are batting just .199 AS A TEAM this season. They are quite bad and on the road they’re getting outscored by almost two full runs per contest. Frankie Montas has allowed three runs or less each of his previous five starts for Oakland, so he’s likely to pitch well tonight. Yusei Kikuchi is working on a string of four straight quality starts for Seattle, but how much support will he get here? The answer to that question is “not much.” It’s been nine days since the M’s scored more than four runs in a game. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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05-23-21 | Pirates v. Braves -181 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 7* on ATLANTA Since taking the series opener on Thursday, things have gone south fast for the Pirates. It started with what was a memorable play for us - the Braves on Friday - which ended up as a 20-1 win! You obviously can’t expect them all to be that easy, but the Braves won again Saturday, this time 6-1. Might as well take them again Sunday as the Pirates are very bad and showing little signs of “life.” Their run differential (-72) is easily baseball’s worst and they’ve dropped five of the six games. While the singular 20-1 loss is largely responsible for them having the worst run differential in the sport, note that no other National League team is worse than -40. Only two are -30 or worse. The Braves are starting to make a move over in the East where they are easily their division’s top offensive team. Expect them to continue flourishing at the plate today against Pirates starter JT Brubaker, who has allowed at least one HR in five straight starts. Brubaker was tagged for five runs total in his last start. Max Fried starts for Atlanta and he has looked solid lately, giving up just one run in each of his last three trips to the mound. No brainer here. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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05-22-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Not sure if you can call the AL East the “best” division in baseball right now (NL West?), but it is the deepest as every team besides Baltimore has legit postseason aspirations. Just look at Toronto, who has a +37 run differential, but is now stuck in fourth place after losing three straight games. The most recent loss was 9-7 to Tampa Bay last night, a game that went 12 innings. Now six of those 16 runs did get scored in the 12th. Francisco Mejia’s grand slam was the difference maker for the Rays in the top half of the frame and the two runs Toronto scored in the bottom half proved inconsequential. But even before extras, the teams had comfortably gone Over the total (which was only 7.0) last night. We think this one goes Over too as Tampa Bay’s lineup is just on fire right now, a big reason why they’ve won eight in a row. They’ve put up an average of 10.0 runs their last six games, scoring at least seven every time. Today, they go against Robbie Ray. Ray has a 5.03 ERA in his previous three starts. Rookie Shane McClanahan will start for the Rays and he’s off his worst start so far. He was tagged for four runs by the Mets last week. So the Blue Jays should again put some runs on the board, something they’ve had no problem doing in their temporary home of Dunedin where they are averaging 6.2 runs/game. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-22-21 | Astros -176 v. Rangers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -176 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 7* on HOUSTON After sweeping a four-game series from the Rangers last weekend, Houston lost to them (in extra innings) Friday. The 10th inning started well enough for the Astros as they put a run on the board via a throwing error. But it wasn’t to be as the Rangers’ Adolis Garcia hit a 3-run walkoff in the bottom half of the inning. With that loss “out of the way” (can’t beat Texas every game), we expect the Astros to do quite well for themselves Saturday. They’ve got Lance McCullers going and they have won each of the last four times he’s pitched. McCullers has delivered five quality starts in a row, lasting a total of 33 innings while giving up only six runs (1.64 ERA). Texas does not exactly have a high-powered lineup and opponents are batting just .173 against McCullers this season, the second lowest average allowed by an AL pitcher. In 10 career starts vs. the Rangers, there have been three times where McCullers didn’t allow any runs. The Rangers send out Jordan Lyles, who has been better of late but still has an 8.47 ERA here at home. Texas is a horrible 8-22 vs. righties. Houston is clearly the cream of the crop in the AL West and will prove that again this afternoon. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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05-21-21 | Pirates v. Braves -176 | Top | 1-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 7* on ATLANTA The Braves suffered a surprising 6-4 loss to the Pirates last night. They were big favorites on the money line and at home. Pittsburgh came in as losers of three straight and owns the worst run differential in the National League. The game went 10 innings and the fact Atlanta could only score one run after the second inning is a bit of a concern. But, at the end of the day, the Braves are simply the better team here and we cannot see them losing two straight to such lowly opposition. The Pirates have put together back to back wins just one time in May. This is going to be a bad ball club this year and everyone knows it. Atlanta expects to win the NL East, which is looking very wide open in 2021. Coming into this series, the Braves had won 10 of 13 vs. Pittsburgh including the last six at home. Starter Ian Anderson has 47 strikeouts in 45 innings this season. Four of his last five starts have been quality, meaning he’s gone at least six innings while allowing three or less runs. He allowed one run on two hits last time out. Tyler Anderson starts for the visiting team and while he’s having a fairly successful season, he did allow two home runs in his last start. Pittsburgh came into the series averaging 3.1 runs/game on the road. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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05-20-21 | Rays -150 v. Orioles | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay is looking to sweep Baltimore and we think they will. The Rays have won six games in a row, the latest coming in 9-7 fashion last night at Camden Yards. That was the fifth time during the win streak that the Rays put up at least seven runs. The Orioles have had some real difficulty winning at home so far. Their record at Camden Yards this season is 6-17. That’s the worst home record in all of baseball. It also just so happens that Tampa Bay’s 14-7 road record is baseball’s best. The Orioles have dropped 9 of 11 overall. Not having to face John Means, Baltimore’s only decent starter, has been a big break for the Rays in this series. Today they go up against Dean Kremer. Still winless after seven starts, Kremer has a 7.79 ERA at home. Rich Hill starts the series finale for the Rays and he’s got a 1.27 ERA in 13 previous appearances against Baltimore. Hill has allowed exactly zero runs in his previous three starts and just six hits in 15 ⅔ innings. Everything about this seems like a colossal mismatch. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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05-19-21 | Brewers -167 v. Royals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -167 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE We’ve been waiting patiently for the next Corbin Burnes start and the day has finally come. Burnes has been outstanding on the mound so far with a 1.57 ERA and 0.64 WHIP. He has 58 strikeouts and just one walk. But somehow his team start record is only 2-4. His last start was pretty emblematic of how the season has gone. Burnes allowed one run and five hits over five innings. But the Brewers lost 2-0. It was the third time in Burnes’ six starts that they failed to score a single run. They’ve scored just 14 total runs in the six starts with 13 of them coming in the two wins. It was another 2-0 loss for Milwaukee last night, this one to the Royals, who recently lost 11 in a row. Kansas City is now 3-13 its last 16 games and has been held to three runs or less 10 times in that run. Brad Keller will start today’s game for the Royals. He has had a much different season than Burnes. You’re looking at a 6.75 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in eight starts. The four starts at home have produced an even higher ERA and WHIP. All things considered, it’s pretty shocking that Keller’s TSR is 4-4. Burnes is clearly overdue for a win here and we don’t see Milwaukee losing two straight to the Royals. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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05-18-21 | Yankees -154 v. Rangers | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the YANKEES The Yankees were dealt a surprising 5-2 defeat by the Rangers Monday. It was their second loss in a row, but just the third in the past nine games. For the Rangers, the win snapped a six-game losing streak and the most shocking part about it is that they were able to get to Gerrit Cole, one of the best starters in all of baseball. They scored four times off Cole and stole home. We expect the Yankees to turn the tables Tuesday night in Texas behind Jameson Taillon. While Taillon isn’t the same caliber pitcher as Cole, the Rangers aren’t a team that can be counted on to produce at the plate in back to back games. Seven straight games they’ve been held to fewer than 10 hits and they are batting just .207 during that stretch with 3.1 runs/game. Mike Foltynewicz will be the starter here for the Rangers. He has pitched decently over his last four trips to the mound, but only has one win this year in eight tries. Most of the starts have been in Arlington as well. It’s been over a month since the Yankees dropped three in a row. Don’t see it happening here. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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05-17-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -165 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Seattle should not have much difficulty beating who we feel is the worst team in baseball. Detroit has been outscored by 69 runs its 40 games this year and they’ve been particularly hideous on the road, scoring just 3.4 runs/game while giving up an average of 5.8. The weekend saw the Tigers lose two of three at home vs. the Cubs. Seattle took the final three games of a four-game series with Cleveland. They held the Indians to 12 runs for the series. Detroit is last in the American League in runs scored, so look for a solid outing Monday from the Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi, who over his last three starts has delivered a 2.66 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Those three starts have seen Kikuchi allow only six runs and 12 hits in 20 ⅓ innings. He had 11 strikeouts in his most recent start, which was against the Dodgers. Yes, Casey Mize is also coming off three straight quality starts for the Tigers. But getting to play against the Tigers at this price seems almost too good to be true. They are a really bad team and just 7-20 their last 27 games in Seattle. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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05-16-21 | Royals v. White Sox -149 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-15-21 | Cardinals v. Padres -130 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO While they had far fewer hits than the Cardinals last night, the Padres took the opener of this series by a score of 5-4. Starter Joe Musgrove got his first win since throwing his no-hitter on April 9th and Manny Machado had a pair of RBIs. Also key was the Padres drawing 12 walks, thus nullifying St. Louis’ 10-4 edge in hits. Last night was the first time these teams had met since last season’s playoffs when San Diego won two games to one in the Wild Card round. The Cardinals haven’t been scoring a ton as of late. They’ve finished with four runs or less in 7 of the past 10 games. Facing MLB’s top pitching staff - in terms of runs allowed per game - that doesn’t figure to change tonight. San Diego is giving up only 3.3 runs/game this season. Chris Paddack will start Saturday’s game after not giving up any runs in his previous start, an 11-1 win over Colorado. Prior to that, Paddack had some misleading stat lines with an unusual number of unearned runs. Adam Wainwright, who was on the losing end of Game 2 in last year’s Wild Card Round, starts here for the Cardinals. Wainwright nearly went the distance in his last start, but he has a 6.51 ERA on the road. San Diego’s lineup is dealing with COVID issues right now, but last night showed they still have enough to beat St. Louis. The Padres are 35-17 L52 as a home favorite. St. Louis is 2-7 their last nine games at San Diego. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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05-14-21 | Yankees -180 v. Orioles | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 9* on YANKEES The Yankees saw their four-game win streak come to an end yesterday. They lost in resounding fashion to the Rays, 9-1. Offense continues to be a bit of a problem for NY as they are averaging less than three runs over the last seven games with a .194 team batting average to boot. But this weekend series in Baltimore seems like a prime opportunity for the Yankees offense to turn it around. In their prior visit to Camden Yards, they could only manage a split of four games. But the Orioles are just 3-11 in home games outside that series. The Yankees are 28-8 their last 36 games vs. the Orioles. Facing Dean Kremer looks to be the key for the visitors tonight. Kremer has a 9.49 ERA and 1.70 WHIP when starting at home this year. That’s why we think the Yankees offense turns it around here. Corey Kluber should be able to handle the rest as he has a 1.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP his last three starts, all of which have resulted in Yankees victories. The Orioles have scored four runs or less in six of their last eight contests. You’ve got two struggling lineups, but one (New York) has far more talent and is going up against the inferior starting pitcher. It’s really that simple. Plus, the Yankees are 26-12 L38 as a road favorite of -175 or more. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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05-13-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We’ve got an outstanding pitchers duel on tap for the Cardinals-Brewers finale Thursday afternoon. The undefeated Jack Flaherty (6-0, 7-0 TSR) will be opposed by Corbin Burnes, who has a 1.53 ERA and 0.546 WHIP in five starts. So runs should be at a premium in this one. Under certainly seems like the way to go as Flaherty has allowed one or zero runs in four of his previous six starts. Burnes, despite a 2-3 team start record, has been even better than Flaherty this season. Prior to his last start, which was on 4/28, he had given up only one run on eight hits. He’s been out for two weeks due to COVID-19 and perhaps that’s why he struggled against Miami his last time starting. Burnes has a 49-0 strikeout to walk ratio, which is just incredible and should get back to his dominant ways today. When he pitched against St. Louis earlier in the year, he allowed just one hit. In four of Burnes’ five starts, the losing team has been shutout. Flaherty threw seven shutout innings in his last start, giving up three hits. Runs should be very scarce in this one as they’ve been throughout the series. Milwaukee won 4-1 yesterday after losing the opener 6-1. That opener saw St. Louis score five of its six runs in the 11th. They have only nine hits in the series. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-12-21 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -118 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Phillies routed the Nationals last night, 6-2, to stay within a game of first place in the NL East. Washington is last in the division with a 13-18 record. The Nats have played fewer games than everyone besides the Mets but a key issue for them has been scoring runs. They are 27th in MLB at 3.6 runs/game and that was actually going into yesterday, so the number is even smaller now. But even though seven of the last eight games have seen them held to three runs or less, the Nats may surprise at the plate tonight as they are set to face Zack Wheeler, whom they’ve had success against in the past. Wheeler is 6-11 all-time vs. Washington with a 4.64 ERA in 20 starts. Wheeler did throw a complete game shutout his last start, but has struggled to find consistency in 2021 as he’s yet to have consecutive quality starts. The Phillies have scored six runs or more in three of the past four games, so we think they can be counted on to score even though they’ve struggled some in the past against Jon Lester. This isn’t the “same old Lester,” however. This will be just his third start of the year after dealing with COVID-19. He’s yet to make it past the fifth. The Over is 4-0 in the Phillies last four games vs. a LH starter and 6-1 the last seven times they’ve been off a win. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-12-21 | Orioles v. Mets -172 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 7* on NY METS The Mets drew first blood with the Orioles, winning the series opener 3-2 on Tuesday. While it’s true the Mets had a slight advantage as Monday was an off-day for them (while Baltimore was hosting Boston), let’s be honest here: the Mets are just plain better. Now 17-13 overall and 10-4 at home, they lead the NL East. Baltimore is 16-20 overall and last in the AL East, which is where you are likely to find them the remainder of the 2021 season. The Orioles’ 11-7 road record is certainly surprising, but also won’t be maintained. The Mets are giving up just 2.1 runs per game at home. Wednesday’s starter Taijuan Walker has been great so far with a 5-1 TSR and the team is 3-0 his last three with Walker posting a 1.80 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Walker allowed just one hit in seven innings the last time he started, which was at St. Louis. His last home start saw him toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. The Mets’ old teammate Matt Harvey will start for Baltimore today. He has a 4.11 and 1.43 WHIP on the road, so it seems a little lucky that the Orioles are 3-0 in those three starts. The Orioles don’t score all that much to begin with (3.9 runs/game) and don’t get to use the designated hitter in this series. Play on NY METS AAA |
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05-12-21 | Orioles v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 1-7 | Push | 0 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Mets drew first blood with the Orioles, winning the series opener 3-2 on Tuesday. All five runs were scored in the final three innings. The Mets are giving up just 2.1 runs per game at home, so Baltimore struggling to score last night should not have been a major surprise. Especially with them playing without the DH. It’s not like they are a great offensive team even with the designated hitter in the lineup. They came into Tuesday averaging just 3.9 runs/game. Look for the Orioles to struggle again this afternoon as they face Taijuan Walker, who has been great so far for the Mets with a 5-1 TSR. The team is 3-0 his last three starts with Walker posting a 1.80 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Walker allowed just one hit in seven innings the last time he started, which was at St. Louis. His last home start saw him toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. The Mets’ old teammate Matt Harvey will start for Baltimore today. While we don’t expect he and the Orioles to win today, Harvey may make it tough on the home team. He has a 1.72 ERA his last three starts and Baltimore pitching has kept opposing hitters to a .208 average on the road (entering yesterday). Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-11-21 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Kansas City comes into this series having dropped eight in a row. Six of the losses have been by at least three runs and they’ve been outscored 58-21 over the course of the losing streak. They’ve gone from leading the AL Central to having the second worst run differential in the American League. But if ever there was a team you’d want to see when staring at the opposite dugout, it’s the Tigers. They have the worst run differential and worst overall record in MLB. They did win their last game (on Sunday), but before that it was 18 losses in 21 games. Both of these teams allow more than 5.0 runs/game, so this total seems low. Detroit has gone Over in five straight and has allowed 10 or more runs in four of the last nine games. The Royals have allowed seven or more runs five times during the currently losing streak, including nine in back to back games. The two starting pitchers, Singer for KC and Boyd for Detroit, are actually both decent. But Boyd has a 5.71 ERA in 23 career starts vs. KC, who is his most common opponent. Singer’s last two starts have both gone Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-10-21 | Rangers v. Giants -134 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO Yesterday was not indicative of the kind of season it's been for the Giants. They lost 11-1 to the Padres, but still lead both San Diego and the Dodgers in the National League West. They are 20-14 overall and +6.5 units on the year. Only Texas and Seattle (both surprises) have been better to bet on 2021. The Giants will host the Rangers for two games starting Monday, so we could have a new “most profitable team” by Wednesday. Though Texas is 5-1 its last six games, we like San Francisco big here. The Giants are 10-2 after a loss and giving up only 3.1 runs at home. The Rangers lose the DH in this series. We’ve got two 3-0 starting pitchers set to face off, Kyle Gibson for Texas and Alex Wood for San Fran. Wood has the better ERA and WHIP and both times the Rangers have lost with Gibson (5-2 TSR) starting it has been on the road. The Giants have won both of Wood’s home starts (his overall TSR is 3-1). Texas is 4-17 its last 21 interleague games as an underdog. The Giants have won five of the last six series openers. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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05-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Phillies and Braves wrap up their three game series Sunday night on ESPN. The Phillies hold the 5-3 head to head edge in season battles, but this series is tied at a game apiece after the Braves rallied for an 8-7 win yesterday. Saturday’s game went 12 innings and it was 3-1 Phillies entering the bottom of the ninth. The comeback was well received on this end as we had Atlanta. If you had the Under, that’s a tough break. But tonight is a good chance to get it back as the pitching matchup of Nola-Ynoa should result in very few runs being scored. Nola already has a complete game under his belt this season and is off another quality where he gave up just one run in six innings. His first start of the year came against Atlanta and he allowed just two runs in 6 ⅔ innings there. Ynoa has started six games in 2021 and if you take away one bad effort at Wrigley, he’s allowed just three earned runs in the other five. In three of the six starts, the opponent has scored one run or less. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-09-21 | Nationals v. Yankees -155 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the YANKEES The Yankees bounced back from Friday’s ugly 11-4 loss to win 4-3 in extras Saturday. Yesterday’s game went 11 innings with both teams scoring in the 10th and then Gleyber Torres provided his second huge RBI single to win the game in the 11th. (Torres also tied the game in the bottom of the ninth). We like the Yankees to win Sunday’s series finale. If they can overcome 14 strikeouts from Max Scherzer, which they did yesterday, then surely they can overcome Joe Ross. Ross’ season has mostly been good for the Nationals, but he did have one disastrous start where he allowed 10 runs and four homers. The Yankees have won three straight Domingo German starts with him providing a 2.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Going into yesterday’s game, visiting teams were hitting below .200 here at Yankee Stadium. Washington is not off to a great start this year. They are last in the NL East. The Yankees have overcome their own slow start to win six of eight and 11 of their last 16 games. A very good home team to begin with, New York is on a 42-14 run when hosting teams with losing records. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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05-08-21 | Phillies v. Braves -168 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The series opener did not go well for the Braves. The Phillies jumped all over them in the first inning, taking a quick 6-0 lead and ended up winning 12-2. In the first home game with 100% capacity, Atlanta’s fans saw their starter Charlie Morton only able to get two outs. It was Philadelphia’s highest scoring game of 2021. The Phillies have won five in a row, but the Braves also swept their last series, at Washington, and we like them to bounce back on Saturday. Ian Anderson has a 3-0 team start record at home and should give the home team a much better start than they got from Morton last night. Vince Velasquez will be the starter for the road team. The Phillies are 5-2 vs. the Braves this year, but Velasquez is 1-6 in his career against them. The Phillies are also 1-6 the last seven times they’ve been off a game where they allowed two runs or less. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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05-08-21 | Twins -174 v. Tigers | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -174 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MINNESOTA We took the Over 9.0 in yesterday’s Twins-Tigers game and the result there was a win as the teams combined for 10 runs. As expected, most of the runs came from the Minnesota side as they won 7-3. It was a rainy night in Detroit, but the Twins hit three home runs as they snapped a three-game losing streak. It’s been a disappointing 12-19 start in the Twin Cities, but the team does a +2 run differential. This looks like the series where they’ll get on track. In addition to scoring the fewest runs in all of baseball, the Tigers have also given up the most runs. Minnesota will have Berrios on the hill this afternoon and he has a 1.01 WHIP in his six previous starts. He’s been more effective on the road where he has an ERA of 1.62 and a WHIP of 0.66. Remember that in his first start, he threw six no-hit innings (before being pulled) with 12 strikeouts. Yesterday’s win means the Twins are 23-10 L33 vs. Detroit and 3-1 this season. The Tigers have Urena starting Saturday and while he’s doing the best he can (four straight quality starts), the result is a 1-5 team start record. The Tigers are 1-8 their last nine games. They are just a very bad baseball team. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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05-07-21 | Dodgers -156 v. Angels | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -156 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers look to shake off their recent slump and won’t have to travel far to do so as they take on their cross-town rivals. The Angels are slumping even worse right now as they’ve lost five in a row (Dodgers have lost three in a row) and were just swept at home by Tampa Bay. No team is giving up more runs per game this year than are the Angels. Did we mention the Dodgers get to use the designated hitter this weekend. We realize that the Dodgers’ have been slumping at the plate, but they still come in averaging almost five runs per contest. They were 6-0 against the Angels last year. Getting to face Griffin Canning seems like a favorable matchup as he has a 6.00 ERA in four starts. Julio Urias has been good for the Dodgers so far and has been downright dominant on the road where he’s 3-0 and has a 0.48 WHIP. Urias has given up no more than three runs in all but one of his starts and had 10 strikeouts in a 16-4 win against Milwaukee Sunday. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-07-21 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER After an incredibly putrid offensive stretch - which at one point saw 12 straight games stay Under the total - the Tigers offense finally woke up from its season-long hibernation against Boston earlier this week. They totaled 22 runs in three games, but of course still found a way to lose twice as this is the worst team in baseball right now. As bad as the offense has been in Detroit, the team has allowed 10 or more runs in four of its last seven games. The Tigers entertain the Twins this weekend and we’ve got two terrible starting pitchers on the mound for Friday’s opening game. Matt Shoemaker has a 7.83 ERA and 1.57 WHIP for Minnesota while Tarik Skubal has a 7.16 ERA and 1.653 WHIP for Detroit. Shoemaker gave up nine runs in his last start. Skubal allowed three home runs in his, lasting only three innings. That was the second time in three starts Skubal allowed three home runs. Those three starts combine for just 11 innings. The Tigers are 4-0 Over in Skubal starts and the Twins are 4-1 Over in Shoemaker starts. This has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER The Braves are looking to complete a three-game sweep this afternoon in the Nation’s Capital. This series is obviously going a lot better than the weekend did vs. Toronto where they lost three times. Unfortunately, it’s tough to be confident in Drew Smyly to get the job done. Smyly, who gets the nod Thursday for Atlanta, has an 0-4 team start record to go along with an 8.05 ERA. A 1.526 WHIP isn’t good either and these numbers are only getting worse with Smyly allowing five or more runs in each of his last three starts. It’s certainly fair to say that the southpaw is a major reason why Atlanta is one of six teams to be allowing at least 5.0 runs/game this year. While Washington hasn’t been putting a ton of runs on the board lately, they are hitting .263 the last seven games. They were 0 for 6 with RISP and left seven men on base yesterday. Jon Lester gets his second start for the Nationals after being a part of the team’s COVID-19 outbreak at the start of the season. He didn’t give up any runs his first time out, but also only had one strikeout in five innings. Look for him to struggle some here. Smyly has allowed eight home runs in the last three starts. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-06-21 | Brewers -117 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee is looking to avoid the sweep today as they have lost three straight one run games here in Philadelphia. Losing three in a row is always going to be frustrating, but when you outhit the opponent in all three games and still go 0-3, that’s REALLY frustrating. Such is the case here for the Brewers, who have 25 hits to the Phillies’ 18 in the three games. They actually doubled them up in hits Wednesday, 8-4, but one of Philly’s hits was a grand slam and that held up in a 5-4 triumph. Milwaukee has now lost four in a row overall, but we like who they are sending out today as Brandon Woodruff has a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in six starts. He’s 2-0 while the team is 5-1 in those six starts. The last five have all been quality and seen Woodruff allow only three total runs in 31 innings of work. Four times he’s allowed three hits or less while going six or more innings. This is a red hot pitcher we’re getting at a really short price. Even better is that Woodruff is 2-0 with a 0.50 ERA in three previous turns against the Phillies. We look for Milwaukee to improve upon its awful 7 of 33 hitting with runners in scoring position this series. Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies and only has a 2-4 TSR and there have been some starts where he’s given up plenty of hits. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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05-05-21 | Astros v. Yankees -135 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES Turns out that the sky was NOT falling in the Bronx as the Yankees have turned things around by winning six of their last seven. They beat Houston 7-3 last night for their fourth straight win and are now just 2.5 back of rival Boston for first place in the AL East. Oddsmakers rightly still consider the Yankees to be the favorite to win the division. Emotions were definitely high at Yankee Stadium for yesterday’s series opener, which was the first meeting between these teams since the 2019 ALCS. You’ll recall that Houston won that series, but later it came out they were cheating. It may take some further chicanery to get by lefty Jordan Montgomery and New York tonight. Montgomery has not allowed more than six hits in a start this season. In the last seven games, Yankees pitching is allowing only 1.7 runs and a .177 batting average. The bullpen has been excellent. Houston’s Luis Garcia has zero career wins. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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05-05-21 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -143 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI Miami might be in last place in the National League East, but they are the only team in the division with a positive run differential. They’ll look to make it two in a row over Arizona tonight. The Diamondbacks have been a little more competitive than expected through 29 games, but are still a real long-shot to compete in the NL West where you’ve got three strong teams. A six-run eighth proved to be the difference for the Marlins last night in a 9-3 win. They shouldn’t need nearly that many runs today as Pablo Lopez gets the start. Lopez might still be in search of his first win, but he’s pitched remarkably well in five of his six outings. The exception was when he allowed six runs against Atlanta on April 13th. Other than that, he has never given up more than two runs in any start. Three times, he has given up zero earned runs. Yet, Miami has actually lost all three of those games! Look for Lopez to get the elusive win Wednesday as Arizona starter Weaver is not in Lopez’s class. Weaver’s last three starts have produced a 7.62 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. He is just 2-11 since the beginning of last season. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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05-04-21 | Dodgers -188 v. Cubs | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -188 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA DODGERS After getting rained out Monday, the Dodgers and Cubs will play two on Tuesday. The first game of the doubleheader sees Clayton Kershaw going for the Dodgers and we’ve got no problem taking him as he’s 4-1 in his last five starts. He’s allowed just four total runs in the five starts and three times he didn’t give up any! That’s despite facing the likes of San Diego (twice) and Cincinnati (MLB’s highest scoring team), not to mention also having to once pitch in an AL park (Oakland) where the DH was in play. Kershaw matches up well against a Cubs lineup that is hitting just .199 in games vs. left-handed starters. At home, the Cubs are batting only .219 for the year, so the fact they are somehow averaging 5.3 runs per game here probably isn’t going to last. Kyle Hendricks hasn’t been good at all for Chicago thus far. You’re looking at a 7.54 ERA and 1.764 WHIP from him so far this season and it’s getting uglier with him allowing seven runs in two of the last three starts. Look for the Dodgers to easily take Game 1 behind Kershaw. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-03-21 | Blue Jays +112 v. A's | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Oakland held on for a 7-5 win over Baltimore on Sunday, but that was their only win of the series and they’re just 3-5 since a 13-game win streak was snapped. Remember that they also started the season 1-7. So that 13-game win streak serves as a bit of a “mirage'' in our estimation. Toronto has won seven of nine and just swept the Braves over the weekend. Only four teams are currently allowing a fewer number of runs per game than the Blue Jays are. That seems pertinent with Steven Matz ready to get the nod Monday. Matz has a 4-1 team start record in 2021 and is 3-0 on the road thanks to a 2.60 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. His last start was his only bad one, but we think he’ll shake it off against a lineup that is hitting only .217 this year. These teams did not play last season, but the Jays won all six meetings in 2019. A’s starter Frankie Montas has really struggled so far, especially in his three starts at home where he has a 9.23 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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05-02-21 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Mets and Phillies wrap up a three-game series on “Sunday Night Baseball” and we feel there will be no shortage of runs in this rubber match. The first two games weren’t particularly high-scoring as the Phillies won 2-1 Friday and the Mets 5-4 on Saturday. No team has really distinguished itself in the NL East thus far. Everybody is at least a game below .500. Mets lefty David Peterson looks to be a potential liability for his team in this one, based on his first two starts on the road. He allowed six runs in both of them and one took place here in the City of Brotherly Love. After giving up two home runs, Peterson was gone after four innings and the Mets went on to lose 8-2 to the Phillies that day. It was even worse when Peterson started at Wrigley Field as he was gone after 3 ⅓ and the Mets lost that one 16-4. Zach Eflin will go for Philadelphia and his previous starts against the Mets haven’t gone all that well. He has a 5.24 ERA the 11 times he’s faced them. Eflin allowed five runs in his last start. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-02-21 | Royals v. Twins -185 | Top | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MINNESOTA Just when it seemed like the Twins were set to turn things around, they went out and “laid an egg” yesterday against the Royals. After dominant wins both Wednesday (10-2 at Cleveland) and Friday (9-1 here vs. Kansas City), they lost 11-3 on Saturday. That was our only loss on a 4-1 card. We like the Twins to bounce back though. Jose Berrios may have an 0-3 team start record in his last three trips to the mound, but he also has a 0.98 WHIP this year. Berrios hasn’t gotten much run support lately, but should today as the Minnesota offense will get its “licks in” against embattled Royals righty Brad Keller, who has really been struggling with a 9.00 ERA and 2.28 WHIP. Keller did turn in his first quality start of 2021 on Monday, but that was against the Tigers, who have the worst offense in baseball. In three of his first four starts, Keller allowed four or more runs while failing to get out of the fourth inning. The Royals are only hitting .198 on the road, so an offensive effort similar to yesterday seems highly unlikely. They are 47-76 on the road since 2019, including 4-12 in Minnesota. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER The Dodgers and Brewers have two of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Both are among the top five in runs allowed per game. We’ve seen this play out in the first two games of this series with the Brewers winning 2-1 and 3-1. Having lost seven of their last nine, it’s fair to say the Dodgers are in a slump right now. Going back to 2019, 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen the Under cash. But not tonight, even with two solid starters going. Brandon Woodruff for Milwaukee has made four straight quality starts, but three of them were against the same opponent (Cubs). He has a 9.39 ERA vs. the Dodgers. Dustin May pitched great Sunday night, but the game still went Over because of the bullpen. Neither bullpen has been great so far. Unless both starters completely dominate, we see this one going Over. The Dodgers’ lineup is too talented to continue struggling like this. Milwaukee has homered in four straight games. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox -169 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CHI WHITE SOX Chicago lost the opener 5-3 to Cleveland, but should gain a measure of revenge this afternoon. It literally starts with Lance Lynn, who has allowed just four runs in 19 ⅔ innings this season and two of them were unearned. Lynn is coming off a two-week stint on the DL but should be ready to go here. He has some personal revenge to exact as he lost his last start to the Indians, even though he only gave up two runs. Lynn has 21 strikeouts and no walks in his previous two starts. Both of those were at home and one was a complete game. The White Sox are giving up 2.8 runs per game at home, which is tops in the American League. Cleveland was lucky to have Shane Bieber starting Friday’s game, but today it’s Triston McKenzie, whose three outings have produced a 4.85 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. He made it only four innings when he faced the White Sox on 4/12 and the Indians lost that game 4-3. Lynn has a 1.41 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 32 previous innings of work versus Cleveland. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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05-01-21 | Royals v. Twins -130 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MINNESOTA It’s been a frustrating start to the season in Minnesota, but the Twins look to be getting their act together. After finishing the Cleveland series with a 10-2 win, they opened this three-game set by drubbing Kansas City 9-1. Saturday’s starting pitching matchup may not look to be in their favor, but the Twins hold a 20-10 record against the Royals since 2019 and that includes 12-3 when they are the home team. KC’s 15-9 start seems to be a bit of a mirage. They are 6-1 in one-run games and hitting .198 on the road. They are 46-76 in road games the last three seasons. So while Danny Duffy leads all of MLB with 0.39 ERA, he’s going to have to carry his offense across the finish line today. We don’t think that happens as the Twins have hit eight homers in the past two games alone. Only once in the last six games have the Royals scored more than four times. The Twins go with Matt Shoemaker as their starter today and while it’s been a rough start to 2021 for him, we see him getting the job done against a lineup that just isn’t very good. Shoemaker has had two good starts. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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04-30-21 | Angels -142 v. Mariners | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 8* on the ANGELS The Angels look to win for a fourth time in five games as they open a weekend series with Seattle. The Mariners had lost four in a row prior to a 1-0 win against Houston yesterday. In those five games, the Mariners have scored a grand total of 11 runs. Five of them came in one game. They don’t figure to score many tonight vs. Andrew Heaney, who has given up all of three (runs) in his last three starts. In fact, he’s allowed just seven hits. Chris Flexen goes for the M’s on Friday. He’s had some good starts this year, but was lucky to only lose 1-0 against Houston two starts ago. He allowed 10 hits in that game. Flexen bounced back with a strong effort vs. Boston, but that was on the road. With the Mariners only hitting .191 at home, Flexen figures to not get much run support. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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04-30-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER It’s not often that you can sweep a series when scoring only three runs. But that’s what Boston did in two games with the Mets. Now they were not as fortunate when they scored only one run in the series opener vs. Texas. The Rangers were 4-1 winners Friday as Boston’s hitters seem to be mired in a real slump. That’s just four runs in the last three games for them. But they still are averaging 5.1 runs/game when facing right handed starters. They are up against a righty tonight in Kohei Arihara, who just so happens to be off a bad start. The White Sox scored five times off him in just two innings. But Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi also allowed five runs in his last start. He’s also given up nine in the last two starts. There have been only two games in the last eight where the Rangers failed to score at least four runs. Neither starter was throwing many strikes in those last starts and Arihara may have been tipping pitches. Over is 4-1 for Texas if they allowed two runs or less last game. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-30-21 | Mets -145 v. Phillies | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the METS The Mets just lost two low scoring games in Boston, 1-0 and 2-1, to fall to one game below .500. But they should rebound here with Marcus Stroman pitching. They’ve won three of the four times Stroman has pitched so far and considering the right hander has a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, that’s no accident. While off his worst outing of 2021, Stroman turned in three consecutive quality starts to open the season. The Mets are 10-4 the last three seasons after being shut out, including 2-0 this year. The Phillies, unlike the Mets, played yesterday and they lost 4-3 to the Cardinals. That game went to the 10th inning, so it was extra disappointing, especially since it ended on a wild pitch. Speaking of disappointing, Philadelphia starter Chase Anderson remains winless and has a 7.71 ERA his past three turns. He got hammered for six runs on Sunday. Play on NY METS AAA |
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04-29-21 | Yankees -180 v. Orioles | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -180 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 7* on NY YANKEES After losing the first game of the series, the Yankees have battled back to take the last two and can now get within a game of .500 by beating the Orioles again today. The last two days have seen Yankee hitters combine for six home runs in 5-1 and 7-0 victories. They are tied for the most home runs hit (30) among American League teams, so the long ball is definitely not a problem. It was just a matter of time before this high-price lineup got going. New York also got a solid outing last night from Domingo German as he went seven innings. We look for another solid effort on the mound today as Jordan Montgomery is set to start. He has a 3-1 team start record and a 1.05 WHIP. Baltimore batters are scuffling right now with only five runs scored in the entire series. In eight career starts against the Orioles, Montgomery holds a 3-1 record and 2.57 ERA. He’ll be opposed here by Jorge Lopez, who hasn’t looked very good in 2021. He’s yet to pitch more than five innings in any start and has already allowed six homers. In four previous starts vs. New York, Lopez’s ERA is 6.62. Baltimore isn’t going to be a good team this season, while the Yankees expect to contend for another AL East crown. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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04-28-21 | Nationals v. Blue Jays -155 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -155 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto will send the unbeaten Steven Matz out to the mound Wednesday in the hopes of pulling off a quick two game sweep of Washington. Matz is 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. As a former member of the Mets, he has not had much success in the past against the Nationals. But he’s with a new team now and the Nats just aren’t very good anymore. They’ve been outscored by 28 runs in 20 games. That’s the worst run differential in the National League and second worst (Detroit) in all of baseball. Vladimir Guerrero’s grand slam was the difference in yesterday’s 9-5 Blue Jays victory. Considering they beat Max Scherzer, beating Erick Fedde should not be all that hard. Fedde has yet to go more than five innings this year. Toronto is averaging 6.1 runs per game at home. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers -185 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers have dropped seven of nine, including three straight. They are 0-2 against the Reds and trying to avoid a sweep this afternoon. It’s their first three game losing streak of the season. Before anyone declares that “the sky is falling,” we will remind you of the fact that Dodger Blue still has the best run differential in all of MLB. They started 13-3 and the defending World Series Champs are considered favorites to repeat for a season. They are loaded with talent. Though the Reds also got off to a hot start this year, they’d dropped seven in a row coming into this series. The difference for us in this game lies in the starting pitching matchup where Clayton Kershaw goes for the Dodgers against Sonny Gray for the Reds. Kershaw had a rough first start (in Colorado), but has since settled down with four consecutive quality efforts. He’s allowed a total of four runs in 26 innings. Gray has only started two games for the Reds in 2021 and he has a 7.87 ERA and 2.13 WHIP after getting tagged for five runs in 3 ⅔ innings at St. Louis last week. The last time the Dodgers lost three in a row was August of 2019. We don’t see this losing streak continuing. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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04-28-21 | Twins v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Minnesota is off to its worst start in years and Cleveland will be looking to sweep them today. But finishing the sweep may prove difficult with Logan Allen pitching. Allen has a 6.91 ERA in four starts with the last two being both brief and ugly. The second inning was something Allen couldn’t escape against either the Yankees or Reds as he’s allowed nine runs total in his last 4 ⅓ innings of work. The good thing for the Indians is they are hitting right now. Particularly Franmil Reyes, who is 12 for 27 on the current homestand. He hit a pair of homers in yesterday’s 7-4 win. Also, Jose Ramirez is 8 for his last 21 and has homered in both games of this series. Losers of 13 of their last 15 games, the Twins turn to J.A. Happ on Wednesday. He carried a no-hitter into the eighth for us in the last start. (Twins were our 10* Interleague Game of the Month that day). But that was also against the Pirates. Expect Happ to struggle a bit today facing a lineup that has produced 12 runs the last two games. Happ had not made it past the fifth inning in any of his previous starts to the last one. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-27-21 | Padres -148 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO San Diego probably needed Monday off as they pulled out a thrilling come from behind 8-7 victory at Dodger Stadium Sunday night. They trailed 7-1 going into the seventh, but rallied for two runs in each of the next three innings to tie it up, then won it in the 11th. The Padres are now 4-3 vs. the Dodgers in 2021, something they ought to be very proud of. They are also 3-1 against Arizona, who they’ll play each of the next two days. The Diamondbacks were San Diego’s first opponent this season and it was almost a sweep. The Padres lost the final game 3-1 after outscoring the D’backs 19-9 in the first three. Arizona had its own memorable Sunday as they shut the Braves out twice and allowed only one hit over the course of a doubleheader. While only 3-10 the previous two seasons at Chase Field, the Padres turn to Chris Paddack, who has a 1.95 ERA in six starts vs. Arizona. Diamondbacks pitching won’t be as good tonight as it was Sunday because Merrill Kelly is on the mound and his ERA is 7.71 through four starts. Two of those starts have seen Kelly allow six or more runs. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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04-27-21 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Things have gotten bad in a hurry for the Tigers, who have lost 10 of 11 and five in a row. They went down 3-2 yesterday afternoon at the hands of Kansas City and that marked the ninth time in the past 10 games they were held to two runs or fewer. The job will get no easier Tuesday as the Tigers head to Chicago to face the White Sox. Winners of six of their past seven games, the White Sox are coming off a three-game sweep of Texas and are massive favorites today. While Detroit’s offense has been really bad and a win is highly unlikely, they should be able to break out of their slump a bit as Lucas Giolito hasn’t been very good for Chicago in 2021. Well, he was versus vs. Cleveland on 4/13, but then his last start saw him surrender eight runs in the first inning and it was over from three. We like this game to go Over as well with the White Sox averaging 5.6 runs over the last seven games. They have a .312 team batting average in those seven games as well. Starting for the Tigers will be Jose Urena, who has an 0-4 team start record due in large part to a lack of run support. But his offense HAS to break through sooner or later as they left 23 runners on base Monday vs. Kansas City. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros -175 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston has had Seattle’s number for most of the last three seasons, especially when they get the Mariners at home. Last night was no exception as they prevailed by a score of 5-2. The loss dropped the M’s record here in Houston to 1-17 since 2019. They are 2-2 vs. the Astros so far this season, but both wins came at home. Beating Seattle again probably won’t require a ton of offense by the ‘Stros. They have Cristian Javier starting tonight and he’s been sensational thus far with a 1.32 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Most importantly, the team is 3-0 in Javier starts. All three wins have come by four runs or more and Javier didn’t allow any runs in either of the last two outings. Left-hander Marco Gonzales will start for the Mariners tonight. He has a 6.05 ERA in his four starts this year and a 5.83 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Astros. Houston, while only 11-11, is actually tied for the best run differential in the American League right now. They have scored 21 more runs than they have allowed. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-26-21 | Marlins v. Brewers -170 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -170 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE We don’t think Milwaukee, who is 13-8 to start the year, will have any trouble beating the 9-12 Marlins on Monday. The Brewers have been getting great pitching so far and no one on the staff has been any better than today’s starter Corbin Burnes. It is a crime that Burnes’ team start record is 2-2 this year. He has a 0.37 ERA, 0.33 WHIP, 40 strikeouts and zero walks! Over his last three starts, Burnes hasn’t given up any runs as he’s working on a 18+ inning scoreless streak. The only run he’s given up this season came on a solo home run, in his first start of the season against Minnesota. The Brewers have won five of six following Sunday’s 6-0 beatdown of the Cubs. Miami has lost five of seven while being shut out twice. So they can’t be looking forward to this matchup. They’ll send out Trevor Rogers, who has been great in his own right, but he’s no Burnes. Not only have the Marlins been blanked twice in the last seven games, they’ve also been held to three runs or less five times. Should be easy pickings for Burnes tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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04-25-21 | Nationals v. Mets -149 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY METS After picking up a deserved win for Jacob deGrom on Friday, the Mets were promptly beaten 7-1 on Saturday. We expect them to take this rubber match though. A .500 record is good enough for first place in the NL East right now and that’s where the Mets are at (8-8). The Nationals aren’t far behind (8-10), but even after yesterday they still have the worst run differential in the National League at -20. Yesterday’s game was pretty much decided early as Washington scored in each of the first five innings while the Mets threw away some opportunities, leaving two runners on base in both the first and fourth innings. New York had the third highest OBP (.330) in the NL going into yesterday, so that’s not a problem. All 10 of Washington’s hits Saturday were singles. Pat Corbin is off a strong effort for the Nats, which was shocking considering he allowed 16 runs in 6 ⅓ his first two starts. He has a 4.25 ERA in 17 career games vs. the Mets. Taijuan Walker goes for the Mets today, looking to make it four straight starts allowing 2 ER or less to start the year. Walker was one out away from getting through four innings without giving up a hit in his most recent start. Things fell apart, but we think the eventual statline was misleading. Play on NY METS AAA |
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04-24-21 | Marlins v. Giants -143 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -143 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO The Giants are 2 for 2 in this series with the Marlins as they continue to get exemplary starting pitching, particularly at home. Friday starter Alex Wood allowed a leadoff home run, but then retired 21 of the next 22 hitters he faced and didn’t give up another hit. That effort came on the heels of a 3-0 shutout on Thursday. The team is now 7-1 at home where they are allowing only 2.0 runs/game. Four of SF’s last six wins have come in shutout form, two of those against Miami. It’s Kevin Gausman’s turn Saturday and he comes in with a 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He’s allowed one run or less in three of his four starts and the last one was six shutout innings at Philadelphia. The Giants are allowing the fewest number of runs/game in all of baseball right now. Miami’s Pablo Lopez, winless this year, has made just one start on the road and it went poorly with him allowing six runs on nine hits. Lopez did pitch well at home vs. SF last weekend, but still lost the game 1-0. He doesn’t figure to pitch as well here while the Giants pitching just isn’t giving up much of anything right now. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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04-24-21 | Phillies -178 v. Rockies | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA After losing eight of nine games, Colorado (7-12) has all of a sudden won three in a row. All of their wins this season have been at home. The latest was last night, in come from behind fashion, as they walked off against the Phillies 5-4. Philadelphia is now 9-10 on the young season and has lost three of its last four games. But we look for them to turn the tide Saturday. It starts with Aaron Nola, who they hand the baseball to. Nola tossed a complete game in his last start, a 2-0 win over St. Louis. He’s the best starter the Phillies have right now, so it’s really important that the team wins here. So far, they are 3-1 in Nola starts. Nola has allowed just one home run thus far and has 28 strikeouts vs. just three walks. We know the Phillies have struggled on the road this year and had just one win at Coors Field in 2018/19 (did not visit last season). But they were in position to win last night’s game, which they led 4-2, and should score plenty of runs tonight against Antonio Senzatela. This is the first time that Colorado has won three in a row in 2021 and the win streak is unlikely to last. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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04-23-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers and Padres are renewing their rivalry this weekend and things got off to a good start for the road team with a 3-2 win last night. But the Dodgers remain the class of baseball and aren’t about to lose two straight. While they have lost three of four, at no point this season has LA been beaten by the same opponent two days in a row. In fact, they’ve yet to lose two games in any series! They won two of the three games at San Diego last weekend. Clayton Kershaw is pitching tonight and he’s been dominant over his last three starts, turning in a 0.47 ERA and 0.68 WHIP. Last Saturday he kept San Diego scoreless with six innings of two hit ball to improve to 22-7 against them all-time. That .759 win percentage is Kershaw’s best against any team in his Hall of Fame career. In 41 starts vs. the Padres, his ERA is 1.99. Once again, he faces Yu Darvish. Darvish was also great last Saturday in giving up one run in seven innings. But it’s just tough to envision San Diego winning twice in a row here as the Dodgers 89-34 at home the last three seasons and are allowing only 2.1 runs/game here this season. Very cheap price on the Dodgers at home. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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04-23-21 | Pirates v. Twins -152 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Twins have dropped four in a row coming into this series with the Pirates. The most recent loss was quite painful as they seemed poised to end Oakland’s 10-game win streak on Wednesday. But they made back to back errors, leading to a 13-12 loss in 10 innings. The A’s didn’t even have a hit as they scored three unearned runs in the final frame. That loss came after getting shutout in two straight games. Now Minnesota looks to “dust itself off” here against a Pittsburgh team that’s rebuilding in 2021. The Pirates have won 8 of 12, but do not expect that to last. This is a team that will struggle moving forward. They played yesterday in Detroit (won 4-2) while the Twins were off. JT Brubaker has had three solid starts for the Bucs, but again, that’s something that will probably not continue. JA Happ has pitched well enough for the Twins that he probably deserved a win in his first two starts. Pittsburgh is 5-22 its last 27 interleague games and 0-7 its last seven when facing a left-handed starter. Happ is a southpaw. The Twins are 12-5 their last 17 home games vs. the National League. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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04-22-21 | Marlins v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Marlins won 3-0 yesterday, but six of their last nine games have seen eight or more total runs scored. They average 6.0 runs per game when they take their act out on the road. That’s the highest average for road games among National League teams. The average will be put to the test this evening when they visit San Francisco, who isn’t giving up many runs at home this year. These teams played a three-game series in Miami last weekend where the Giants were held to just one run in two of the games. One was a win (1-0 obviously) and the other a loss (4-1). The middle game, won by the Marlins, ended up being 7-6. We look for something more along the lines of that one tonight. San Francisco has put 15 runs on the board in just the last two games and will get a second crack at Daniel Castano after only managing one run and three hits off him last week. More familiarity with the opposing pitcher should lead to a higher success rate at the plate, plus this game is in their ballpark. Miami will also be seeing Aaron Sanchez for a second time. They scored just one run off him the first time, but that was also the game that ended up 7-6. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-21-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We told you to take the Angels -1.5 yesterday and they came through with a 6-2 victory against the Rangers. Shohei Ohtani threw four shutout innings, while at the plate both Trout and Pujols homered. Texas had just five hits as their offense continues to struggle. They did score six times on Monday, but five of those runs came in one inning, which matched their entire offensive output from the previous 32 innings. So take away that one big inning and this lineup has scored just seven times in 41 innings. But they should break out today facing Jose Quintana, who gave up seven runs in just 1 ⅔ innings against Toronto on April 10th. The result was a 15-1 loss. His first start of 2021, resulted in a 7-6 win for the Angels, but Quintana allowed four runs in 3 ⅓ innings. The Over is obviously 2-0 in Quintana starts. Texas starter Mike Foltynewicz is 3-0 Under, but he’s also 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA. He gave up five runs his last start and has already allowed five home runs. This should be a high-scoring AL West battle. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-21-21 | Cardinals v. Nationals -166 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON Washington pulled out a 3-2 win last night, scoring the game winning run in the bottom of the eighth on a bases loaded walk. For 5 ½ innings, no runs were scored by either team. It was a lot different than Monday’s opener when St. Louis won 12-5. Tonight the Nationals have what appears to be a huge edge in the starting pitching matchup with Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer has been outstanding in each of his previous two trips to the mound, allowing one run in six innings and no runs in seven innings. He’s allowed just five hits in those 13 innings and had 10 strikeouts last Friday vs. Arizona. The fact Scherzer has yet to earn a victory this season seems rather criminal. Can’t say the same for Carlos Martinez though as Wednesday’s starter for St. Louis is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA. The Cardinals have lost those three games by a combined score of 30-8. It’s been nearly three years since Martinez last won a start as he was a reliever in 2019, then went 0-3 as a starter (with a 9.90 ERA) last season. He’s 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA all-time vs. the Nationals. Scherzer vs. Martinez looks like a lopsided matchup to us and we’ll play accordingly. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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04-21-21 | Astros -144 v. Rockies | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -144 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON The Astros’ nine game win streak over the Rockies, which stretched back to 2018, came to an end Tuesday with a 6-2 loss. The key for Colorado was five RBI’s from CJ Cron as well as seven strong innings by starter Jon Gray. Still winless on the road (0-6), the Rockies are now 5-6 at Coors Field this season. The weather was cold last night and is expected to be so again this afternoon. But we look for Houston to come out a bit hotter. They’ll send Jose Urquidy to the mound. While he hasn’t won any of his previous three starts this season, Urquidy has a 2.87 ERA in three prior Interleague starts. He allowed only two runs on five hits in his last start, which came at Seattle. The Rockies go with Austin Gomber, who has pitched well both of his last two starts, only to not come away with a win either time. Colorado obviously scores more at home, but they are just 1-10 vs. right-handed starters this year and 2-6 in day games. Considering Houston averages almost six full runs per game on the road, they should have a good afternoon at the plate. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-20-21 | Rangers v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA ANGELS -1.5 The Angels were upset yesterday by the Rangers, losing 6-4 in a game where they were big favorites. They actually had more hits than Texas, but sloppy defense (three errors) contributed to them falling into a 6-0 hole. Five of those six runs for the Rangers came in one inning (the sixth) and that equaled their entire offensive output from the previous 32 innings combined. So we’re not sold on them being able to duplicate last night’s result. In fact, we think this should be such an easy win for the home team that you should lay the -1.5 on the run line. Ohtani is starting tonight for the Angels. The first start of the year for the two-way player did bring about control issues (five walks) but he only allowed two hits and the Angels won 7-4. The Angels also average 5.9 runs/game at home. Jordan Lyles, who won just one game for Texas last year, has already matched that win total in 2021 as he won his first start. But the last two have seen him give up three home runs and six runs total. He now has a 4.70 ERA. He has a 5.40 ERA in six career starts vs. LA. Play on LA ANGELS (-1.5) AAA |
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04-20-21 | Blue Jays +102 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TORONTO Boston is off to a great start so far at 11-6. Only the Dodgers have outscored their opponents by a greater margin. Yesterday morning, the Red Sox jumped all over the White Sox early en route to an 11-4 win. We had the Over, which was a winner by the second inning when the Red Sox were already up 8-1. But today is a day we expect the Red Sox to struggle as they have to face Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Blue Jays. Monday was an off-day for Toronto, much needed after they lost three of four in Kansas City. Boston not getting any time off between series has them at a disadvantage and Ryu has yet to allow more than two runs in a start this year. He’s given up only five runs in three starts and has 19 strikeouts in 19 innings. We think it’s just a matter of time before the Toronto lineup wakes up and they’ve had success in the past against Eduardo Rodriguez, who gets the start today for Boston. Rodriguez has a 4.64 ERA in 14 previous tries against the Blue Jays. Boston is just 7-20 its last 27 home games vs. lefty starters. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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04-19-21 | White Sox v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The White Sox and Red Sox finish up a four-game series early Monday, in the traditional early start time to help celebrate Patriots’ Day. (Normally, the Boston Marathon would be run today, but that’s been pushed back to October due to the pandemic). The teams played two on Sunday with the White Sox winning 3-2 and 5-1. Both of those were seven-inning affairs with MLB’s new rules in place for doubleheaders. Going back to Saturday, the Red Sox won the opener 7-4. We’re back to nine innings today and we like the Over. Lucas Giolito starts for Chicago. He’s been quite effective so far, including seven shutout innings (in a losing effort) his last trip to the mound. But Boston came into yesterday averaging nearly 6.0 runs/game and 6.7 against right-handed starters. Giolito has given up seven runs in 17 previous innings vs. the Red Sox. The starter for the home team will be Nathan Eovaldi, who is similarly off to a great start to 2021. But he has a 5.59 ERA vs. the White Sox, who were averaging 5.7 runs/game on the road going into Sunday. Watch the line as Boston is 6-1 Over its last seven as home underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-18-21 | Blue Jays v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Blue Jays and Royals played a doubleheader on Saturday. Both teams got a win and both games stayed Under. Toronto won the first, 5-1, before KC came back with a 3-2 win of their own. Keep in mind those were only seven inning games per MLB’s “new” rules. We’re set to play a full nine today and look for more runs to be scored as a result. The Jays got a really strong start from Steven Matz in Game 1 yesterday. But their starter for Sunday, Robbie Ray, figures to be less impressive. Ray and Royals starter Brad Singer were both supposed to go Friday before the rain interfered. Singer has had a poor start to the year with a 6.48 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. The second game yesterday is the only time in the last five games that Toronto didn’t score five or more runs. Kansas City averages 5.7 runs per game at home, but also gives up 5.1. Don’t forget that Thursday’s game was a 7-5 final (KC won). We expect something along those lines here. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-18-21 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -185 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -185 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on WASHINGTON The Nationals were embarrassed in the first game of this series, losing 11-6. But they’ve subsequently won 1-0 and 6-2 against the Diamondbacks the past two days. We like them to make it three in a row behind Stephen Strasburg on Sunday. Strasburg has pitched twice in 2021, once at home and once on the road. The one at home went much better as he held the Braves scoreless over six innings and allowed only one hit. We’ll just forget what happened in St. Louis earlier this week. Arizona isn’t very good as they’ve got just one series win so far. They’ve lost four of five and Madison Bumgarner no longer inspires much confidence when he’s on the mound. Both of Bumgarner’s starts have not gone well. He allowed five runs to Colorado and while that could be chalked up to “Coors Field,” he then allowed six runs at home to Oakland. Washington’s lineup produced 14 hits on Saturday. There have been 19 times the last three seasons that Arizona has been a road underdog of +175 to +250. They’ve lost 15 of those, including a 1-4 record so far this year. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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04-17-21 | Orioles v. Rangers -131 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS The Rangers were beaten 5-2 by the Orioles last night, but we look for them to even this series up at a game apiece Saturday night. There’s a huge edge in starting pitching tonight as Dane Dunning goes against Dean Kremer. Dunning, the Rangers starter, has looked great thus far. He’s allowed just one run in two starts (it came on a home run) and only five hits as well. He was a hard luck loser the last time out as Texas fell 1-0 to Tampa Bay. But Dunning can expect his offense to put some runs on the board here against Baltimore’s Kremer, who has only managed to make it three innings in each of his two starts to this point. He’s given up seven runs. A pitcher with a 0.78 WHIP facing a pitcher with a 2.33 WHIP sounds like a real mismatch to us. Baltimore is 5-2 on the road so far, not something you’d expect from a team that’s expected to be really bad this season. So fade them accordingly moving forward, including tonight as we don’t see them as likely to win two in a row here. Especially with the starting pitching matchup so obviously not in their favor. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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04-16-21 | Tigers v. A's -175 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland ended Detroit’s three-game win streak last night, taking the series opener by a score of 8-4. Tigers’ pitching made it pretty easy on the A’s as they issued 12 walks in the game, two coming when the bases were loaded in the sixth inning. Wouldn’t you know that control issues have been a problem for Friday’s starter Jose Urena as well? The Tigers’ righty has walked nine batters in two starts which have lasted only 7 ⅔ innings. The team lost both of those games, rather handily. First it was 15-6 to the Twins, then 5-2 to the Indians. Detroit isn’t going to be very good this year, so the fact they swept Houston was a surprise. But this series looks like it will go differently. Oakland is on a five-game win streak and sends Frankie Montas to the bump tonight. After being rocked by the Dodgers in his first start, Montas came back and delivered six solid innings in a win over Houston in his last start. The A’s won that game 7-3 and the only run allowed by Montas was a solo homer. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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04-16-21 | Braves v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Cubs hitting, or should we say “lack thereof,” has been dreadful so far. As a team, they are batting .163. No other team in the National League strikes out at a higher rate and no team in all of MLB scores fewer runs per game. They are averaging fewer than five hits per game and off a shutout loss (7-0) at the hands of Milwaukee. At home things are even more dire as they have hit just .124 in six games! But a visit from the Braves and the afternoon Wrigley wind should lead to a change in things on Friday. Atlanta’s last seven games have averaged just over 12 runs with them scoring and allowing 6.0 per. Six of those seven games went Over the total including each of the last three. Braves starter Drew Smyly has struggled with the home run ball thus far, allowing three in his two starts and if the wind is blowing out today that should continue to be a problem. The only other time Smyly faced the Cubs, he allowed a pair of home runs. Cubs starter Davies has allowed just one HR so far, but he gave up seven runs while getting only five outs in his last start. We don’t like his chances against Ronald Acuna Jr, who leads MLB with seven home runs. This one goes Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-15-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Indians weren’t just beaten 8-0 last night by the White Sox. They were no-hit by Carlos Rondon, the second no-no we’ve seen so far this season. The only runner Cleveland got on base was Roberto Perez in the ninth and that was after he was hit by an 0-2 slider. It was the second straight shutout in the series as the Indians won 2-0 on Tuesday. Chicago won the opener 4-3. Look for today’s finale to be the highest scoring game of the series. That may seem like an odd prediction based on how both of Thursday’s starters have performed so far in 2021. But Indians starter Civale has only had to face the Tigers - twice. After a six-run first inning last night, it seems like the White Sox should have finished with more runs. Of course, they didn’t need any. Tim Anderson, who has finished top two in batting average each of the last two seasons, will be back in the Sox lineup Thursday. We also think Cleveland can score at least four runs today. That’s how many they scored after the only other game where they were shutout this season. They are also 5-0 Over after allowing five or more runs in their last game. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-14-21 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Braves have dropped both games to the Marlins so far. The first was one they let get away. They led 3-1 going into the eighth, but then let Miami tie the game up and lost in extras, 5-3. We were happy about that result as we had the Marlins +1.5 after calling it a “tough spot” for Atlanta coming off the controversial loss Sunday night. Last night saw things get really one sided as the Marlins won 14-8. Given the odds for tonight, you’ve gotta think Atlanta is going to break through. We’ll take the Under with Charlie Morton starting as he’s allowed only four runs in 11 innings so far this season. Last night was not only Miami’s season high in both runs and hits, but they also exceeded their total number of runs scored from the previous six games combined. So look for a quiet night at the plate from them. Marlins starter Nick Neidert will have to reduce the number of walks (5) from his first start, but we like the fact he still allowed just one run. This game should resemble Monday not Tuesday and presuming Atlanta is up, they won’t have to bat in the ninth inning. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-14-21 | Phillies -113 v. Mets | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Big time revenge here for the Phillies as they got swept in yesterday’s doubleheader. After losing the opener 4-3 in extra innings, they were blanked 4-0 in the nightcap. That Game 1 loss particularly stung as the Phillies had struck first in extras to take a 3-2 lead. But it was not to be and they now are one controversial call away from being 0-5 their previous five games. The Mets sending David Peterson to the mound should give Philly hope tonight. Peterson really struggled in his first start. He gave up six runs and did we mention that was against the Phillies? It was. Zach Wheeler gets the start for Philly and he will be hoping this third start goes more like his first than the second. That first time out saw Wheeler go seven innings, strike out 10 batters and allow only one hit. That was vs. Atlanta. When he faced the Braves a second time, it didn’t go as well. The Phillies were 6-3 going into yesterday’s twinbill and we don’t see them getting beat for a third time in two days by a Mets team that struggles when off a win. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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04-14-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -154 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE This is the rubber match between NL Central foes as the winner will take the series. The Cubs snapped a three-game losing skid yesterday with a narrow 3-2 victory. Milwaukee was held to just three hits, but it wasn’t until the 8th inning - when Wilson Contreras homered - that the Cubs were able to take the lead. Despite the much needed victory, they shouldn’t be rejoicing too much in the Windy City. It was the seventh consecutive game where the Cubs were held to four runs or less. Now they must face Corbin Burnes, who has been stellar through two starts for the Brewers. Burnes has allowed just one run and two hits thus far, striking out 20 batters and walking none. That’s in 12 ⅓ IP. The problem is Milwaukee has somehow found a way to lose BOTH games. But if Burnes keeps pitching like that, you’ve gotta figure he’ll break through into the win column. The Cubs are still only 2-6 vs. righties so far, even after the win yesterday. Jake Arrieta does have a 2-0 team start record, but his WHIP is 1.417, a far cry from the other-worldly 0.162 posted by Burnes. This is all about Burnes being due for a win. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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04-13-21 | Tigers v. Astros -177 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -177 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 7* on HOUSTON Houston losing two nights in a row to Detroit does not seem likely. Nor does the Astros losing a fourth straight home game. So we will take Houston here. Though they only put up two runs Monday night, both of which came on solo homers, the Astros had plenty of other opportunities to score. The problem was that they were 0 for 11 when they had runners in scoring position! Normally, it’s Detroit that struggles to put the bat on the ball. As a team, they are batting just .194 in the early going. Tigers starter Matthew Boyd has looked good in two starts so far, but he has a 5.91 ERA in four career starts against the Astros. Jake Odorizzi goes for Houston in what will be his first start of 2021. He has had success in the past vs. Detroit with a 6-1 record and 3.09 ERA in 12 starts. We expect Houston’s offense to wake up tonight and them to move to 37-15 their last 52 home games when facing a left-handed starter. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-12-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI +1.5 This is a tough spot for Atlanta as they are off a controversial 7-6 loss on Sunday Night Baseball. A play at the plate (bad call) determined the outcome of the game and the Braves were rightly hot that things went against them. Now they have to turn around and host a Miami team that’s off a 3-0 win over the Mets on Sunday and looking for revenge. The revenge stems from the end of last year when the Braves swept the Marlins out of the playoffs. We’ll grab the +1.5 with Miami here as Sandy Alcantara has pitched very well in his two starts despite having an 0-2 TSR. He had 10 strikeouts in his last start and has allowed only three runs and six hits so far. There hasn’t been much run support, but that will come. Atlanta goes with Huascar Ynoa, who has only two starts of longer than three innings in his career. One was Wednesday when he shut Washington out for five innings. But we don’t think he’s better than Alcantara. This should be a low-scoring game where 1.5 runs in our back pocket will come in handy. Play on MIAMI +1.5 AAA |
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04-11-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON +1.5 It’s rare you get Max Scherzer +1.5 runs, let alone with this kind of minimal price tag attached. So you’ve got to figure that the opponent can only be one team and if you guessed “the Dodgers,” then go ahead and pat yourself on the back. Los Angeles is going for the sweep Sunday afternoon as they’ve beaten Washington 1-0 and 9-5 the last two days. But we give the Nats a shot at winning today and don’t think they’ll do any worse than a one-run loss. Scherzer allowed four solo home runs in his first start. But other than those, he gave up just one other hit. He had nine strikeouts and zero walks and the Nationals wound up beating the Braves 6-5. Kershaw was similarly impressive in his last outing, but not so much in the first (allowed six runs), which could be chalked up to being in Colorado. We realize that LA has lost just one time since Opening Day and Washington is on a four-game losing streak. But two of those four losses were by one run. Even in yesterday’s loss, the Nationals had 15 hits to the Dodgers’ nine. Play on WASHINGTON +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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04-10-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Since being swept by Baltimore to open the season, the Red Sox have won four straight. Following an off-day, they look to make it two straight over the Orioles here at Camden Yards. Obviously, Thursday’s series opener went much differently than the series at Fenway last week. Boston won 7-3 and has now scored at least six runs in each of its four wins. But Saturday starter Garrett Richards had a terrible first outing vs. the O’s, lasting just two innings while giving up six runs. Baltimore pitching has given up exactly seven runs in three of the last four games. Saturday starter Zimmerman was on the winning end of Richards’ first start, but isn’t likely to pitch as well the second time around. Boston’s last five games have all gone Over the total. They are on an 8-0 Over run after scoring five or more runs the previous game, going back to 2020. The Orioles are 7-3 Over in the second game of a series. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It seems as if the National League East is the consensus choice as the “toughest division in baseball” this season. We don’t expect many runs to be scored in this Phillies-Braves series opener on Friday. Both teams were off Thursday. Philadelphia has opened 4-1 and swept Atlanta at home to start the 2021 season. But the Braves, despite being 2-4, have to like their chances at revenge because they are 42-18 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the past two seasons. All three games in the series at Citizens Bank Park last week stayed Under. The most total runs scored in any of the three was five! Philly’s recently completed series with the Mets went much differently as all three games went Over. Tonight’s game features a starting pitching rematch from 4/3 as Zack Wheeler opposes Charlie Morton. Wheeler was masterful in the game last Saturday as he went seven innings and allowed only one hit. He had 10 strikeouts and no walks. Morton wasn’t bad either; he gave up three runs over five innings. But it didn’t matter considering how good Wheeler was and the Phillies won the game 4-0. Look for another low-scoring affair tonight as the Braves are batting just .170 in the early going. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-08-21 | Royals v. White Sox -153 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHI WHITE SOX The White Sox, who have high hopes for 2021, enter this game with a 3-4 record. They went down in defeat Wednesday, losing to the Seattle Mariners by a score of 8-4. But they did win the first two games of that particular series. This is their home opener and it comes against a Royals team they absolutely dominated last year. Chicago was 9-1 in head to head meetings with KC in 2020 with four of those wins coming by four runs or greater. The Royals’ bats came out swinging in 2021, delivering a total of 25 runs the first two games. But they’ve been quiet since with just eight runs scored in the last three games. Like Chicago, Wednesday brought an “L” for Kansas City as they fell 4-2 to Cleveland. Today’s starter is Brad Keller and when you look at how he pitched on Opening Day, it’s tough to make a case for KC today. The Rangers tagged Keller for six runs in 1 ⅓ innings. The offense bailed him out, but we don’t think they’ll do so here facing Lance Lynn, who allowed only two unearned runs in his first start. He also had six strikeouts vs. zero walks. Play on CHICAGO WHITE SOX AAA |
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04-07-21 | Blue Jays -183 v. Rangers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -183 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TORONTO Toronto goes for its second series win of the young season Wednesday afternoon. After taking two of three from the Yankees, the Blue Jays won the series opener 6-2 here in Arlington. But they lost yesterday by a score of 7-4. It was the most runs allowed by Toronto pitching in a game so far in 2021. Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has never faced Texas, should get them back on track this afternoon. Ryu allowed just two runs and four hits in 5 ⅓ in his first start. While he did not factor into the decision, the Jays won that game 3-2 in 10 innings. This is a team that expects to contend for a playoff berth and possibly win the division. The Rangers, on the other hand, are probably going to finish last over in the AL West. It was an ugly first outing for today’s starter Kyle Gibson. He was handed a 5-0 lead on Opening Day in Kansas City, but immediately gave it back as he gave up five runs after four hits and three walks. He retired just one batter. How can you not want to play against that? The Rangers have yet to have back to back big games at the plate this year. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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04-06-21 | Dodgers v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Adding a designated hitter to the Dodgers’ already potent lineup just seems cruel, especially if you’re the 0-5 A’s, who have given up eight or more runs in every game. They gave up a season-high 10 to the Dodgers in last night’s series opener. That was the second time in the last four games LA scored 10 or more runs. They had seven runs on the board through three innings last night. Chris Bassitt has the unenviable task of starting against the Dodgers tonight. While he pitched well in the Spring and on Opening Day, he never faced a lineup quite like this one. Clayton Kershaw goes for the Dodgers and while you may think that means a long day for the Oakland hitters, guess again as they got him for nine runs in a Spring Training game. Kershaw also allowed six runs and 10 hits in his first start of 2021 and that was without giving up a home run. Look for the bevy of runs scored in A’s games to continue on Tuesday. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-06-21 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER St. Louis was 4-1 winner in Monday’s series opener. That victory squared their season record away at 2-2. Miami is 1-3 and save for a 12-run effort on Sunday, they haven’t done a whole lot of scoring. The other three games have seen them score a total of five runs and four of those were in one game. Let’s not forget that last year’s playoff run ended with back to back shutout losses. So we’ve got little confidence in the Marlins lineup heading into Tuesday and really the same is true for the Cardinals. While the Redbirds’ first three games all went Over, they didn’t have a ton of hits. They’ve scored 22 runs in four games, but the fact they have only 27 hits (7 or fewer each of the L3 games) makes that seem a bit fortuitous. Sandy Alcantara will be the starter for Miami on Tuesday. He threw six shutout innings on Opening Day and allowed only two hits. The Marlins lost that game 1-0. St. Louis will send John Gant to the bump. Since he’s been used as a reliever the past two seasons, Gant won’t be in there for too long. But regardless, Miami hasn’t shown they are any real threat at the plate. The Under is 14-3 in the Marlins’ last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter. They’ve scored a total of one run in the two games this season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-05-21 | Pirates v. Reds -143 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This isa 10* on CINCINNATI To put it mildly, the Pirates are not going to be good this year. So why not take advantage of some “early season pricing” and back the Reds here? Cincy opened with St. Louis. After losing the season opener, they bounced back to win two straight and it was 12-1 on Sunday. Run scoring was not an issue in that first series as the Reds put 27 on the board in the three games. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff performed adequately in its first series, but the team still dropped two of three to the Cubs. That probably speaks to how poor the offense is going to be in 2021. Making matters more depressing is that Ke’Bryan Hayes, thought to be the next star of the franchise, is already on the 10-day DL. JT Brubaker starts today for the Bucs. He gave up four home runs in Spring Training, not good considering the Reds hit six HRs in the St. Louis series. Jose De Leon gets the nod for the home team. He actually hasn’t started a MLB game in almost five years (he’s been a reliever), but if there was ever a time to make your return to a starting role it would be against the Pirates, who have scored only nine runs so far. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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04-04-21 | Rangers v. Royals -166 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -166 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Since falling behind 5-0 in the first inning on Opening Day, the Royals have looked absolutely dominant, particularly at the plate. They’ve scored a total of 25 runs in two games against the Rangers and are now 2-0. They go for the sweep on Sunday with Brady Singer on the mound. Singer finished last season strong, winning three of his last four starts. That carried over into the Spring where he was 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in four starts. The last one saw him give up only two hits to Cleveland in eight innings and only one of those two hits made it out of the infield. Though Texas had a big day at the plate Opening Day, their bats made far less noise yesterday with four runs on six hits. Rangers’ starter Jordan Lyles has to contend with a Royals lineup that has 28 hits in the two games. While KC has been scoring in clusters, they should be able to consistently produce here vs. Lyles, who went 1-6 last season with a 1.56 WHIP. Lyles will be working in “tandem” with either Dane Dunning or Taylor Hearn. This speaks to the lack of depth in the Rangers’ rotation right now, which has been hit hard already and figures to have a rough 2021. Going back to the end of last season, the Royals are 9-0 L9 home games when facing a right-handed starter. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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04-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs -164 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the CUBS The Cubs dropped their season opener here at Wrigley Field on Thursday, losing 5-3. That’s an embarrassing loss considering how bad the Pirates are projected to be in 2021. Friday was an off day and we anticipate the Cubs will come out swinging on Saturday. Literally. Seven Pirates pitchers combined to hold them to two hits on Opening Day. But the Bucs aren’t going to have many games like that this year. They finished 19-41 last season, which would be an 111-loss pace for a 162 game season. They have the lowest projected win total in MLB. They also have the lowest payroll in the National League. Tyler Anderson will start for them today. He comes over from San Francisco and is one of the few free agents the team actually signed. It’s likely he won’t be asked to go long, but we don’t think a bullpen that looks shaky on paper will be as effective as it was Thursday. For the Cubs, starter Jake Arrieta is in his second tour of duty. He’s always enjoyed facing Pittsburgh in the past (12-6 record, 2.93 ERA in 23 career starts) and should do well here. This is all about fading the worst team in baseball. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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04-02-21 | Astros v. A's -128 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND The Astros gave us a gift on Opening Day as they scored five times across the final two frames to send the game Over. We had the Over, which certainly wasn’t looking good when the game was 1-0 after five innings. Today we look for the A’s to settle the score. The A’s have payback on the mind not just from last night, but for the ALDS in October when they were eliminated in a 3-1 series by the Astros. But the regular season last year really saw the A’s have Houston’s number as they took 7 of 10 head to head meetings and the three losses were all seven-inning games. Can’t see Oakland dropping two straight at home to open the season. Houston’s starter for today is Cristian Javier, who the A’s beat twice last year in the regular season. Javier’s ERA in those two starts was 7.88 Jesus Luzardo goes to the mound for the home team and we like him, especially for his 2.87 ERA against Houston in three previous regular season turns. Oakland is 44-18 off a loss. Houston is 3-13 after scoring 5 or more runs last game. PLAY ON OAKLAND AAA |
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04-01-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER These were the two playoff teams from the American League West a season ago. Oakland took home the pennant with a 36-24 WL record. But Houston was the one who made it to the ALCS, even though they had a sub-.500 regular season record. That postseason run included a 3-1 series win over the A’s in the LDS. That was strange as Oakland really dominated the regular season series, winning 7 of 10 with all three losses coming in seven inning games. We look for Opening Day to be a relatively high-scoring affair. Three of those four playoff games saw 15 or more total runs scored. Houston is going to have a bounce back year at the plate. Two years ago, they were tops in MLB in batting average, slugging and OPS. Zack Greinke faced Oakland three three times last year. He allowed four runs in two of those starts. The A’s will counter with Bassitt, who allowed two home runs in last year’s LDS, same as Greinke did in his start that series. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-01-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -139 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 Like everyone else, we favor the Dodgers to repeat as World Series Champions. When you factor in their postseason, they outscored their opponents by an average of 2.2 runs per game last season. Only three Yankees teams from the 20’s and 30’s ever produced a better per game run differential over the course of a season. Now that was only 78 games for the Dodgers last year, but they look even stronger this year and could set the National League record for single season wins. Their season win total of 104.5 is tied with the ‘99 Yankees for the highest of the past 30 years. Colorado is not going to challenge the Dodgers. Not today. Not this season. They could finish some 40 games back when the regular season is over. This is a total mismatch as Clayton Kershaw makes his 11th consecutive Opening Day start. Disregard Kershaw’s poor Spring Training; that’s happened before and it didn’t carry over to the regular season. His 24 wins against the Rockies are his most vs. any team and he’s 11-5 all-time at Coors Field. The Rockies traded away Nolen Arenado and Brendan Rodgers is out with a hamstring injury. German Marquez can not possibly carry his team to victory here and the home team will lose by at least two runs. Play on LA DODGERS (-1.5) AAA |
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10-27-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -160 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 10* on TAMPA BAY +1.5 The Dodgers treated us nicely in Game 5, winning 4-2 as our *10* Game of the Year. But with the Rays now facing a must-win situation, we’re now going to throw our support behind them in Game 6. The main reason being not that they are facing elimination, but rather it’s the same starting pitching matchup that treated them so well in Game 2. It was a 1st inning Brandon Lowe HR off Tony Gonsolin that set the tone in Game 2. The Rays went on to win 6-4. Gonsolin hasn’t been good in the playoffs, posting a 9.39 ERA in just 7 ⅔ innings. He lasted for just four outs in Game 2. Blake Snell has never gone a full six innings for the Rays this season, but he doesn’t have to with the bullpen being as good as it is. Snell no-hit the Dodgers for the first four innings (not an easy feat) of Game 2. Tampa Bay is 20-8 off a loss this season and 11-2 when playing with a day off. We believe they will do no worse than a 1-run loss here. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers -155 v. Rays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers were one out away from taking a 3-1 lead in the World Series and making this an elimination game for the Rays. By now, we all know that is not what happened. A dramatic 2-out single in the bottom of the ninth by Brett Phillips, which led to the Dodgers making TWO errors on the play, resulted in an 8-7 win for Tampa Bay and now we’re knotted at two games apiece. We expect Los Angeles to bounce back though as they send out Game 1 winner Clayton Kershaw to the mound tonight. Kershaw was masterful in Game 1, allowing just one run on two hits over six innings. He now has a 2.38 ERA and 0.84 WHIP this season and the Dodgers have won 11 of his 14 starts. Kershaw will again be opposed by Tyler Glasnow in Game 5, same as he was in Game 1. Glasnow was left in too long by Rays manager Kevin Cash in Game 1, which led to much deliberation, as he threw more pitches than any Rays starter has in any game this season. Glasnow has not made it a full six innings in any start this year and walked six batters in Game 1. How much mileage Cash can get out of his bullpen tonight, based on usage last night, is up for debate. What we do know is the Rays offense remains entirely too dependent on the home run ball. The Dodgers are 17-5 off a loss this year. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is the best starting pitching matchup we’ve had thus far in the World Series as Walker Buehler goes for the Dodgers and Charlie Morton goes for the Rays. Buehler threw six scoreless innings the last time we saw him and has given up just four runs total his last five starts. He’s allowed just 16 hits during that time and while there have been some issues with control (not the last start), perhaps the most important thing is he’s given up just two home runs this postseason. The Rays are getting an irregularly high amount of their runs from the long ball, which just isn’t sustainable. The Under is 5-0 in Buehler’s previous five starts. Morton has been even hotter than Buehler, if you can believe it. In the playoffs, Morton has a 0.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He didn’t allow runs in either start in the ALCS. Game 2 was Tampa Bay’s highest scoring game since Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees. They have scored four or more in back to back games only one time in the playoffs and that was Games 3-4 of that series with the Yankees. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times they’ve been off a win. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -147 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -147 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA Pretty much everything we said in our Game 1 analysis rang true last night as the Dodgers opened the series with a 8-3 win. The Rays have gotten shockingly little offense in the postseason, outside of when they are hitting home runs. As mentioned in yesterday’s writeup, almost 72% of their runs scored in the playoffs have come via the long ball. While the Dodgers homered twice in Game 1, they also showed they can string runs together without hitting out of the park. Scoring eight times across three innings was more than enough in Game 1. Though Tony Gonsolin will start Game 2 for LA, this likely turns into a “bullpen game” for them. Though Gonsolin wasn’t very good against Atlanta in the NLCS, he does have a 2.74 ERA and 0.82 WHIP for the season. Blake Snell goes for Tampa Bay tonight. He isn’t likely to go as long as Tyler Glasnow did last night for Kevin Cash. An issue for Snell this postseason has been control of his fastball, which has led to 10 walks. An issue here is that the Dodgers have a .990 OPS in the playoffs vs. left-handers and they’ve hit a lot of homers. The Dodgers, who have won 42 of their last 55 games and are 17-4 vs. the AL this season, are simply the better team here. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA We were behind the Dodgers in their NLCS comeback, taking them in both Games 6 & 7. While rallying back from a 3-1 series deficit against the Braves certainly had to take a lot out of the club, let’s not discount what the Rays just went through. They led the ALCS 3-0 before Houston stormed back to force a Game 7. So we’ve got a World Series where both participants have to feel like they’ve been through a war. Clayton Kershaw, who did NOT get called into duty in Game 7 vs. Atlanta, now gets the Game 1 start for LA. You can certainly question Kershaw’s postseason resume as it is nowhere near as impressive as his regular season accolades. But it’s hard to question a pitcher that has a 0.87 WHIP across his 13 starts this year. Plus, Tampa Bay really struggles to score when they are not hitting home runs. Almost 72% of the Rays’ runs scored during the playoffs have come via the long ball. Kershaw has allowed just 8 HR’s going back to August. Three of those were in his L2 starts but he was also facing the #3 and #2 scoring offenses in baseball. The home run ball likely will be a deciding factor in this series as the Dodgers just set a record by hitting 16 in one series. They hit the most homers in the regular season. Game 1 starter for Tampa Bay, Tyler Glasnow has allowed six HRs in 19 ⅓ postseason innings. Uh oh. Another edge for the Dodgers is they have been playing here in Arlington while the ALCS was in San Diego. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-18-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -139 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOS ANGELES We rolled with the Dodgers in Game 6 and that’s who we are going with again in Game 7. LA was able to jump on Atlanta starter Max Fried early yesterday, scoring three runs in the first inning and that held up in a 3-1 win. They’ll face Ian Anderson in Game 7. While Anderson hasn’t allowed a run this postseason, he was a bit wild back in Game 2 when he walked five hitters. Remember that the Dodgers just handed Fried his first losing decision of the year. It was only the second time this season that the Braves lost with Fried pitching. So Anderson should not be viewed as infallible. The Dodgers were baseball’s best team in the regular season and by that measure, we’re getting them at a fairly discounted price here in Game 7. They are 40-13 L53 games. They have yet to make a decision on who will start tonight, but you know it’s going to be a combined effort on the mound with Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias and maybe even Clayton Kershaw all making an appearance. The Braves have scored three runs or less in three of the last four games. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-17-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -145 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES The Dodgers season appeared to be hanging by a thread in Game 5 as they found themselves down 2-0 early. But then they struck for three runs in both the sixth and seventh innings, a Will Smith HR being the deciding blast. So here we are in Game 6 Saturday with LA needing to win to force a deciding Game 7. We like their chances to do so. It’s a rematch of the pitching matchup we had in Game 1 with Max Fried taking on Walker Buehler. Fried is 7-0 in 14 starts with the team winning 13 times. He did not factor into the Game 1 decision as remember that was a 1-1 game going into the ninth. Buehler has a 9-2 TSR and allowed just three hits in five innings back in Game 1. To us, this play simply boils down to who is the more complete team. That would be the Dodgers, who were so dominant in the regular season and are now 39-13 L52 overall. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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10-16-20 | Astros +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON +1.5 Going into Game 4 of the ALCS, Tampa Bay was up 3-0 in the series and owned a MLB-best 16-5 record in one-run games this season. That was the best win percentage in one-run games for any single season in the history of baseball. Well, as you know, the ALCS is still going on. The Rays are now just 16-7 in one-run games having lost Games 4 and 5 by identical 4-3 scores. Last night it was a Carlos Correa walk-off that proved to be the difference for the Astros. Houston has outhit Tampa Bay in this series, even when they were losing, so we’re not surprised that they’ve climbed back into the series. With the series being so low-scoring thus far (every game has stayed Under), taking Houston +1.5 in a must-win spot seems ideal. On the mound, it’ll be a rematch of Game 1 starters tonight. Framber Valdez allowed just two runs on four hits for the Astros in Game 1. He’s gone at least six innings in all but two of his 12 starts in 2020. Blake Snell hasn’t gone a full six (innings) one time this season. He did give up just the one run in Game 1, but Astros’ hitters were making good contact with him and had six hits. Snell also had only two strikeouts, compared to eight by Valdez. Play on HOUSTON +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-15-20 | Dodgers -220 v. Braves | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -220 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LA DODGERS This is a “whole new series” now. The Dodgers scored a MLB postseason record 11 runs in the first inning of Game 3 and rolled to a 15-3 win. They’ve now scored 22 times on a Braves staff that had only allowed five runs total in its first six postseason games (four shutouts). For Game 4, Los Angeles gets a shot at another shaky looking starter for the Braves, that being Bryse Wilson. Meanwhile, they (LA) now get to turn to Clayton Kershaw after he was scratched from his previously scheduled Game 2 start. The Dodgers’ bats have clearly “woken up” and Kershaw will take care of the Braves hitters in this one. Something that must be pointed out is the fact that while Atlanta has gone 19-4 in the 23 starts made by Fried and Anderson this season, they are just 23-22 otherwise. Wilson only started two regular season games. Kershaw is now pitching on extra rest after looking good in both previous starts this postseason. We think the moneyline for Game 4 “says it all” as the Dodgers are a lock to even this series up at two games apiece. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Tampa Bay has done all the “little things” right in taking a seemingly insurmountable 3-0 lead in this year’s ALCS. Last night, it was their defense that carried them to a 5-2 victory. Houston is hitting the ball hard in this series. The ball just keeps landing in the gloves of the Rays fielders. They’ve also had MORE hits in the series compared to the Rays. But none of that matters now. We do think the Astros, who have been held to just five runs in three games, are going to score more in Game 4. Whether it’s enough to keep the series going remains to be seen. Zack Greinke will start tonight for Houston. He’s not lasted over five innings in any of his last five times out and has given up at least three runs in four of those five outings. He allowed two homers in the LDS start vs. Oakland. Tyler Glasnow will start here for the Rays. He has an 11-0 TSR his L11 starts, so they couldn’t have asked for a better scenario as they look to advance to the World Series. However, be aware that Glasnow only made it through 2 ⅓ innings his last time out and did give up four runs in his first of the two LDS starts. We know the first three games all stayed Under, but Game 4 should sneak Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 8* on LA DODGERS Both the Dodgers and Braves entered the NLCS with perfect postseason records. Obviously, that could continue for only one team moving forward and surprisingly it’s the Braves that now own a 7-0 playoff record. Game 1, they broke things open in the ninth. They took control much earlier in Game 2 as it was 6-0 at the end of five (innings). But while they lost, a positive sign for the Dodgers was that they finally broke through against the vaunted Braves’ bullpen, scoring seven runs over the final three innings. It was just a matter of time before baseball’s highest scoring offense (from the regular season) “woke up” and we like LA in Game 3 as Atlanta’s lack of depth in the starting rotation will again be tested. So far the Braves have only had to use three starters the entire postseason. Max Fried and Ian Anderson have accounted for six of the seven starts. Kyle Wright made the other and while it couldn’t have possibly gone any better (six shutout innings), his YTD numbers suggest that was an outlier performance. Urias will be the Dodgers’ Game 3 starter and he’s allowed two runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts. Los Angeles is “too good” to go down 0-3 in this series. They have NEVER lost three in a row all year, going 4-0 off back to back losses. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
NO ACTION DUE TO PITCHING CHANGE |
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10-12-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -137 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA Atlanta has had it fairly easy, at least by playoff standards, in the first two series. They got two pretty weak offensive teams - Cincinnati and Miami - and boy did they take advantage. Five wins, four of them shutouts! But now they’ve got to go through baseball’s best team, that being the Dodgers. Los Angeles also boasts a 5-0 playoff record. They scored more runs in their last game (12) than Atlanta has allowed the entire postseason (4). All four runs the Braves have allowed during the playoffs belong to tonight’s starter Max Fried. Fried lasted just four innings in Game 1 of the LDS against the Marlins. A similar start here would mean major trouble, even with that stellar Braves’ bullpen. It’s not Miami they are facing here, but Walker Buehler, who just doesn’t give up many runs. The Dodgers are also averaging 6.0 runs/game when facing a left-handed starter. Not only have the Dodgers won 9 straight overall (goes back to regular season), they’ve won the last eight times Buehler has started. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Houston took an early 1-0 lead in Game 1, but did not score after the first inning. As a result, they dropped Game 1 by a score of 2-1. That was still a winner for us, mind you. We had the Astros +1.5. Two of the game's three runs came on solo HRs - Jose Altuve for the Astros and Randy Arozarena for the Rays. We don’t anticipate much scoring taking place in Game 2 either. Consider that Tampa Bay has just 12 hits - total - its last three games. All three runs they’ve scored in the last two games have been solo shots. So they’re not doing much scoring otherwise. Houston’s Game 2 starter Lance McCullers did have a bit of a rough go in the LDS vs. Oakland, but prior to that hadn’t allowed a single earned run over his previous three starts. The three HR’s he allowed to the A’s was more than he gave up in his previous 8 starts combined. Tampa’s Charlie Morton has allowed just 1 HR in his L7 starts and only 4 all year. He’s yet to allow multiple HR in the same start. Two starters that are good at preventing the long ball should help keep this one Under the total rather easily. Under is 8-1-1 the Rays’ L10 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-11-20 | Astros +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU +1.5 There are no off days in the LCS, so these teams could be playing as many as seven games in seven days. We think there’s going to be a real premium on starting pitchers going deep into games. Granted, Tampa Bay is never afraid to have a “quick hook” and turn to its bullpen, which has been successful for them all year. But with just one day off between series and Game 1 starter Blake Snell having yet to pitch a full six innings even one time in 2020, the Rays seem to be at a bit of a disadvantage here. Astros Game 1 starter Framber Valdez has gone a full seven innings in 7 of his 13 outings this season. The team that homers more has gone 22-1 this postseason. Houston homered 12 times in 4 games vs. Oakland, Tampa Bay homered 11 times in 5 games vs. the Yankees. This pretty clearly isn’t the same Houston team we saw struggle in the regular season. They are healthier now and motivated by the cheating scandal. Last year, they ousted TB in 5 games in the LDS. They took the first two games of that series. Taking the ‘Stros on the run line here is a tremendous value as we just can’t see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. Play HOUSTON +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-09-20 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY (RUN LINE) It’s come down to one game for the Yankees and the Rays as Game 5 is Friday night with the winner moving on (to face the Astros) in the ALCS and the loser going home. After staying alive with a 5-1 win in Game 4 last night, the Yankees are favored here as they’ve got Gerrit Cole on the mound. As great as he’s been over the last month, a lot of his success has to do with run support and we don’t think Cole can necessarily count on that tonight. Tampa Bay is taking a different approach as Tyler Glasnow, who started the Game 2 win, will open. From there, we’re likely to see Blake Snell and others. With Glasnow, not only did he strike out 10 Yankees in just five innings back in Game 2, he also has a 10-0 team start record in his L10 starts! Over the L7 starts, Glasnow has a sub 1.00 WHIP. So we've got full confidence in him for however long he’s in there tonight. The Rays pitching depth is such that there will be no drop off when they do decide to make the change. (Snell is a former Cy Young winner!) There has yet to be a one-run game in this series, but remember that Game 1 was 4-3 heading into the ninth inning. We say that Tampa Bay does no worse than a one-run loss in Game 5 and we obviously give them a great shot at winning “outright!” Play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-08-20 | Rays v. Yankees -130 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY YANKEES Scoring runs really hasn’t been an issue for the Yankees as they have 40 in five playoff games so far. It’s slowing down the Tampa Bay offense that is now the priority as they look to stay alive in Game 4 of the ALDS (in San Diego). The Rays, whose lineup includes the scorching hot Randy Arozarena, has gone off for 7 homers and 15 runs these last two games. The burden for slowing them down falls on New York’s starter Jordan Montgomery, who will be making his first career playoff start tonight and his first start of any kind since September 24th. While Montgomery’s ERA isn’t all that great, his WHIP of 1.08 in the last three starts is certainly something to lean on here. The number of runs given up relative to the number of baserunners he allowed seems high, so it’s fair to say Montgomery pitched better in the regular season than the raw numbers seem to suggest. He also had a 24:3 strikeout to walk ratio in his last three starts. Tampa Bay is opting for the opener route, first using Ryan Thompson and then Ryan Yarbrough is the probable pitcher to follow. The Yankees need to take advantage of no dominant starter being in there. This is a lineup that’s homered 14 times in five games. They are 35-16 L51 playoff games when favored. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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10-07-20 | Marlins v. Braves -190 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER With a huge 7th inning, Atlanta powered past Miami 9-5 in Game 1. That was a good result on this end as we took the Braves. For a while there, things looked a bit dicey. The Braves were down 4-3 entering the home half of the 7th, but that’s when they sprung for six runs as the Marlins bullpen really failed starter Sandy Alcantara. Unfortunately for Miami, Alcantara can’t pitch every day. While charged with five runs, Alcantara only gave up three. We’ve got less faith in a quality start from Game 2 starter Pablo Lopez as he didn’t have any such outing in six away starts in the regular season. This will be Lopez’s postseason debut and he’s up against the second highest scoring team in baseball. One of Lopez’s three starts vs. Atlanta in the regular season saw him give up seven runs in 1 ⅔. For what it’s worth, Miami has scored five runs in two of its three playoff games. So they should be able to put enough on the board to help Game 2 go Over. The Braves go with Ian Anderson, who is off an excellent start in the 1st round vs. Cincinnati. But Anderson didn’t win either of his 2020 starts vs. the Marlins. Over is 20-9-4 L33 times Atlanta has been a favorite. Play on OVER AAA |