Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-20-21 | Mariners v. Rockies -165 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Seattle losing the DH in this series is somewhat mitigated by the fact they are playing at Coors Field, traditionally the most hitter-friendly ballpark in all of MLB. But this is not a particularly strong offensive team. The Mariners come into tonight with a team batting average of .219. That’s the lowest average in baseball. Their on base percentage (.295) is also baseball’s worst. So is their OPS (.674). They will be facing a pitcher in German Marquez that has no problems pitching in the Mile High City. Marquez has allowed no more than one run in eight of his last ten starts. One of the other two saw him give up only two runs. The one exception where he was blasted actually came on the road (at Cincinnati). It’s five straight starts at home for Marquez, allowing two or less runs. His last three starts overall have resulted in a 0.82 ERA and 0.55 WHIP. He’s allowed only 12 hits his last five starts and just three runs! This is a pitcher you want to be on tonight. The Mariners are kind of lucky to be over .500 right now as their run differential of -51 is indicative of a team that should be well below the Mendoza Line. The Rockies are 32-19 at home this year and 7-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. They are 7-3 vs. the American League while Seattle is 4-8 vs. the National League. With Marquez starting, this should be an easy win for the home side against Marco Gonzales, who comes in with a 6.98 road ERA. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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07-20-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO The Twins and White Sox played a doubleheader on Monday and both teams picked up a win. Minnesota won the first game 3-2 and then the White Sox struck back with a 5-3 win in the nightcap. Both games went down to the wire as Minnesota’s win came in extra innings while Chicago won on a walkoff home run. Despite yesterday’s split, there can be no denying who the better team is here. The Sox lead the division by 8.5 games and are one of only five teams with a win percentage of .600 or better. They’ve also won 8 of 10. Minnesota got swept in Detroit to start the second half of what has been a tremendously disappointing season. The Twins are -25.3 units, making them the second worst bet in all of baseball (only Arizona is worse). This pitching matchup of Ober vs. Keuchel seems to favor the home team even more. Ober has a 6.57 ERA vs. the White Sox. Keuchel has a 3.91 ERA vs. the Twins. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-20-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER It was not even close on Monday as the Nationals destroyed the Marlins 18-1. It was 10-0 after two innings and the Nats wound up finishing with 18 hits. Juan Soto has absolutely been hitting the cover off the baseball since the All Star Break. While it was the team’s second straight win, the six straight losses that preceded them shouldn't be forgotten as they gave up 10 or more runs three times in that run. So the Marlins should not wave the white flag on this series just yet. They have an excellent opportunity to put a big number on the board tonight against Paolo Espino, who last pitched in a 24-8 loss last Friday. He did not start that game, but did surrender three runs in 2.3 innings. In Espino’s last start, he gave up three runs in 3.6 innings. He has an 11.25 ERA in two prior starts vs. Miami. Of course, you’ve obviously got to respect what Washington’s lineup has been doing of late. It’s not just Soto either. They’ve pounded out double digit hits in eight of the last 11 contests. Soto is batting .588 with five home runs in the past four games. Miami’s Trevor Rogers has not made it through six innings in any of his last four starts. Nine of Washington’s last 11 games have gone Over the total and this one should follow suit. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-19-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -126 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Six games separate Boston and Toronto in the American League East with the Red Sox ahead. But the Blue Jays are the ones coming into this series with a little more momentum (i.e. a four-game win streak) and it’s also important to note their run differential for the season is much better than Boston’s. Whereas the Red Sox have a +51 run differential, the Blue Jays are +95. Boston might have the best record in the division (Toronto in third place), but the roles are swapped when it comes to run differential. Only five teams have a better run differential than Toronto. So what we’re saying is, expect them to treat Monday’s series opener as a “statement-type game.” Boston has lost its last two games, including the Sunday nighter 9-1 to the Yankees. Toronto played a doubleheader on Sunday and won both games in shutout fashion, 5-0 and 10-0. It was the first time they ever did that in franchise history. This is the final homestand in Buffalo before they get to head back to Toronto at the end of the month. The “nomadic lifestyle” has actually treated the Blue Jays fairly well as they’ve averaged 5.8 runs/game at home - whether it’s Dunedin or Buffalo. We’re highly skeptical of Boston right now as the pitching has been bad of late AND they’re not hitting. Pivetta, who is starting Monday, has a 9.00 ERA in two starts vs. Toronto this year. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-19-21 | Twins v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) Fresh off a couple wins over Houston, the White Sox get to stay home to start the week. They’ll play two (doubleheader) against Minnesota on Monday with Lance Lynn starting Game 1. We look for this one to quickly turn into a blowout. The Twins have not been good against the White Sox so far this season. They are 2-10 in head to head matchups, which includes an 0-6 record at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Twins’ weekend saw them get swept in Detroit. While Chicago is a top five team in baseball by any objective measure, Minnesota has been among the most underachieving teams of 2021. They are -24.9 units, making them the second worst team to bet on (only Arizona is worse). Back to Lynn, he’s having an exemplary year with a 1.99 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He’s pitched against the Twins three times and has given up only four runs and 11 hits in 17 innings. The last time he faced them was 12 days ago and that ended up being an easy 6-1 victory. The Twins starter for Game 1 is Michael Pineda. The team has lost each of his last four starts, getting outscored 35-12 in the process. We are so confident in this one that we are willing to lay the -1.5 (run line). Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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07-18-21 | Dodgers -165 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -165 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 7* on the DODGERS Back on Opening Day, the Rockies defeated the Dodgers 8-5. They did so as +185 underdogs on the money line against Clayton Kershaw. The teams have played eight times since Opening Day and the Dodgers have won all eight. The latest win was last night by a score of 9-2. Max Muncy and Mookie Betts each had four hits, which was the same number the entire Rockies lineup produced. Walker Buehler was dealing from the start for LA as he won for the 10th time here in 2021. David Price will start Sunday’s game. Price will be making just his fifth start of the year and has logged only 9 ⅓ innings. But we are not overly concerned with that as he figures to get lots of run support today. Going back to before the All Star Break, the Dodgers have scored six or more runs in six of their last seven games. The Rockies are obviously better at home and Jon Gray isn’t a bad starter. But they are also not even close to being the same caliber of team as the Dodgers, who have won 40 of their last 58 games. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-18-21 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Giants had a five-game win streak snapped last night as they lost 3-1 to the Cardinals. That result definitely caught us by surprise even though we’d acknowledged how good Kwang Hyun-Kim had been for St. Louis. Today we’ll take the Over as it won’t be Kim pitching for the Cardinals. Instead it will be veteran Wade LeBlanc. His four starts have yielded a 1.77 WHIP. Three of those fours starts have seen LeBlanc fail to go five innings. You have to figure he’ll be giving up several runs here to a Giants offense that averages 5.0 runs/game and is 10-4 Over its last 14 games at Busch Stadium. But the reason we’re taking Over here (as opposed to the Giants again) is because San Francisco’s starter isn’t much better than LeBlanc. While LeBlanc gave up three runs in the first inning of his last start, Johnny Cueto gave up four runs in six innings to this very opponent back on 7/6. Cueto has given up nine runs in his last two starts. He has a 5.64 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-18-21 | Brewers -130 v. Reds | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE There probably isn’t a starting pitcher with a more misleading team start record than the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes. Burnes has started 15 times this year and the Brewers are only 7-8 in those games. But that completely undersells just how well he has pitched. Burnes has both a 2.26 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Both those numbers are among the top five in baseball. The fact he was selected as an All Star tells you all you need to know. We look for Burnes to lead Milwaukee to a sweep of Cincinnati on Sunday. The Brewers have been outstanding in day games this year with a 28-12 record. They are also 28-18 on the road after yesterday’s 11 inning victory. That’s a better record than they have at home. The lead in the NL Central has now grown to six games over the Reds. A big reason for that is the Brewers are giving up just 3.4 runs/game on the road. Burnes’ numbers are even better on the road (1.98 ERA, 0.79 WHIP). Overall, he’s allowed two runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts. So his record ought to be much better. Sonny Gray has pitched only 12 innings in the last month for the Reds, thus he’s far less trustworthy in this spot. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-17-21 | Giants -116 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO The Giants won yesterday by a score of 7-2. They got four strong innings from emergency starter Logan Webb while Mike Yastrzemski homered twice. No team boasts a better record than San Francisco’s 58-32 and they’ll need to continue winning as the Dodgers remain just two games back. Luckily, they are facing the Cardinals, who are 44-47 but have been outscored by 45 runs. The Giants do have to face Kwang Hyun-Kim, who has not allowed a run in his last 13 innings of work. But they’ve got Anthony DeSclafani starting and he not only has a 13-5 team start record but also a 0.99 WHIP for the season.In his last seven starts, DeSclafani is 6-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. That’s excellent. He threw six scoreless innings in his last start. It was the third time in his last six starts he didn’t allow a run, one of those being a complete game. St. Louis is just 8-20 its last 28 games as an underdog. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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07-16-21 | Indians v. A's -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) It will be interesting to see how Cleveland approaches the second half. Eight games back of the White Sox, they are not likely to win the AL Central. They are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card. Injuries have taken their toll on the Indians, particularly their starting rotation. They are not a team looking to spend money, so we’d be shocked if they were “buyers” before the trade deadline. It might behoove them to be sellers and build for the future. The Indians are big underdogs Friday in Oakland as they face Chris Bassitt, who is 10-2 in his 19 starts (14-5 TSR). The A’s are also a second place team, but in a better position than Cleveland. They have seven more wins and a much better run differential as well. We expect the home team to win tonight by two runs or more. Eli Morgan has made just five starts for Cleveland. The last one came on July 3rd. He has an 8.43 ERA this year. Bassitt has allowed no more than two runs in 14 of his last 17 starts. The Indians have lost eight straight games to teams with winning records. They are 1-7 their last eight games here in Oakland. The A’s are an amazing 49-13 their last 62 games vs. the AL Central. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER These two AL West clubs hooked up right before the All Star Break. Seattle won the first two games, but then the Angels avoided a sweep with a 7-1 win on Sunday. We expect there to be a fair number of runs scored tonight. Seattle’s Chris Flexen has made six starts on the road so far. All six have gone Over the total. He’s been a big contributing factor in that, posting a 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Andrew Heaney, who will start for the Angels Friday, has also been a bit of an “Over machine.” The Over is 12-2 in his 14 starts and he’s got a 9.42 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in the previous three. So there’s definitely reason to believe that one or both starters will struggle tonight. This series being in LA should also lead to more offense than what we saw from the Angels last weekend when they scored a total of 10 runs in three games. They are putting up 5.5 runs/game at home. That’s tied for the third highest average in baseball. The only teams higher are Toronto (who is playing in a minor league stadium) and Colorado (Coors Field). The Over is 51-24-3 in the Angels past 78 home games, including 41-17-2 when they are the favorite (as they are here). Play on OVER AAA |
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07-11-21 | Rockies v. Padres -173 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -173 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO San Diego had no answers at the plate for German Marquez and thus lost 3-0 to Colorado last night. Marquez is good, but that’s an embarrassing loss for the Padres to a team that is 8-34 on the road. It was also their first time losing to the Rockies this season. With no Marquez to worry about Sunday, we will take the Padres again as Jon Gray, who starts today’s game for the Rockies, has an 0-6 team start record on the road. The current road trip is the 1st time all season that Colorado has won multiple times. They have NEVER won consecutive road games at any point in 2021. So this one seems pretty easy. Look for the Padres offense to supply Ryan Weathers with more than enough support. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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07-11-21 | White Sox -172 v. Orioles | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CHI WHITE SOX As you would have expected, the White Sox have not had much trouble with the Orioles this weekend. They won the first two games at Camden Yards by scores of 12-1 and 8-3. The AL Central leaders have won four in a row and have already clinched the biggest division lead in all of baseball going into the All Star Break. So you should expect them to finish the sweep Sunday. Baltimore is guaranteed the worst record among American League teams in the first half. They are 28-60 and a lock to finish in last place once again in the AL East. It’s not just the last two days where Chicago has had Baltimore’s number. They are 6-0 in the season series. The Orioles have only managed 11 runs in those six losses. All things considered, the White Sox should be a much bigger favorite. Dylan Cease will start Sunday. He did struggle on Monday vs. Minnesota. But he did not struggle vs. Baltimore back on May 27th. There he matched a season-high with 10 strikeouts while allowing one run and four hits. The White Sox have scored 38 runs off Orioles pitching in the six games so far and are likely to put many more on the board today against Spenser Watkins, who is making just his second career start. “We’re in dire need of rotation help,” said manager Brandon Hyde after Saturday’s loss. Don’t think Watkins gives it to them. Play on CHICAGO WHITE SOX AAA |
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07-10-21 | Rockies v. Padres -178 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -178 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO This is a mismatch. San Diego beat Colorado 4-2 on Friday. It was the second straight day where the Padres rallied to win. Last night wasn’t nearly as exciting as the 9-8 win against Washington on Thursday. That one saw them come back from an 8-0 deficit, tying the largest rally in team history. The Padres have now won nine straight home games over the Rockies, who are a miserable 7-34 on the road this year. So the fact that SD had to rally to win last night doesn’t scare us at all. Expect them not to fall into an early hole tonight because of the fact Joe Musgrove is starting. Musgrove, responsible for one of MLB’s no-hitters this year, continues to pace the rotation with a 0.97 WHIP. He has a 2.89 ERA at home. When Musgrove faced the Rockies back on 5/19 (it was here in SD), he shut them out for seven innings, allowed just two hits and had 11 strikeouts. The Padres’ bullpen was pretty flawless last night. So when they are called upon here, there won’t be any drop off from Musgrove. The Rockies score just 2.8 runs/game away from home, a big reason for that terrible record of theirs. German Marquez has pitched very well of late for Colorado. But he has a 1-5 team start record on the road. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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07-10-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Yankees turned in a very impressive victory on Friday night as four pitchers combined to turn in a three-hit shutout of the Astros. That’s no small feat. Houston scores more than every other team in baseball - at 5.5 runs/game. So it’s difficult to imagine them getting shut down again. This time, Houston must face Gerrit Cole, but he’s 0-3 in his last three starts and his ERA and WHIP are 6.46 and 1.63. The Over is also 3-0 in those three starts. It’s 5-1 in Cole’s last six starts. He’s really struggled in the last two, giving up 10 runs in 8.3 innings. Cole has allowed at least one home run in six straight starts, a rather dubious streak. The Yankees, who have not gone Under in back to back games this month, will face Zack Greinke. Again, this may sound challenging from an offensive point of view. But the Over is 13-5 in Greinke starts in 2021, 8-1 at home. He has a 5.26 ERA at home. Before yesterday, the previous seven Yankees games averaged 11.0 total runs scored. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-10-21 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Our only losing selection on Friday was the Over in this matchup. We’re doubling down on Saturday. Atlanta put up five runs yesterday, which we expected. But we did not see Miami getting blanked. The Marlins could manage just two hits against Charlie Morton, even though it was the fourth time they’d faced him in 2021. Expect them to fare better at the plate this afternoon vs. Max Fried. Fried has yet to defeat Miami in eight career tries. He’s 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA. Two of those losses have come this year as he’s allowed 11 runs in 10 innings. Also, Fried just gave up six runs in his last start. The start before that, however, was a 20-2 win. His last three starts have all gone Over. He has a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP on the road. Trevor Rogers is having a great rookie season for the Marlins … except when he faces the Braves. He has a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against them. This is a pretty low total for a matchup where one of the starters looks shaky and where you have to figure one of the teams (Atlanta) is going to score 4-5 runs. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-09-21 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER These teams just met last weekend. All three games were decided by one run. The first two - a 1-0 win for the Braves and then a 3-2 win for the Marlins - were low-scoring games. Then the Braves took the series with an 8-7 win on the 4th of July. Their next series, which saw them drop two of three to Pittsburgh, didn’t go as well. But they did score 14 runs in the final game Wednesday. Miami just wrapped up a series against the Dodgers that went much better than expected. Though they lost yesterday 6-1 (we had the Dodgers), Miami won the first three games of that series and did so by scoring 16 runs. We are predicting today’s game to be pretty high-scoring. We’ve got our concerns about Braves starter Morton, who is 0-1 with a 7.63 ERA in three starts vs. Miami this year. Four different catchers have caught Morton in 2021 and the one who had been doing the best job was just sent back to Triple-A. In a rematch from Sunday, Morton is once again matched up with Thompson for Miami. Thompson has just five big league starts under his belt, but two were against Atlanta. So the Braves hitters should be more comfortable facing him this time. The Over is 17-3-2 in Atlanta’s last 22 Friday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox -118 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON We like Boston here as Thursday was an off-day for them while Philadelphia had to wrap up a four-game series with Chicago. The off day isn’t the only reason we like the Red Sox though. They are 27-17 both at home and on the road and are the current AL East leaders with a 54-34 record. They did lose Tuesday and Wednesday to the Angels. But this is a team that’s dominated Interleague play so far (a 10-2 record) and is 36-19 in night games. They also haven’t lost three in a row since early June. Their longest losing streak all year has been three games and that’s happened only three times. Since starting the season 0-3, the Red Sox are 8-2 when off back to back losses. So it’s a good spot to take them today. The team Philadelphia just took three of four from (Cubs) is in a terrible way right now. The Phillies are still just 18-27 on the road. Vince Velasquez has a 1-3 TSR his last four starts overall and his last two starts on the road have seen him surrender 10 runs in seven innings. Garrett Richards has also struggled for Boston, but we trust he’ll get better run support in this one. The team is 4-2 in Richards’ last six starts. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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07-09-21 | White Sox -131 v. Orioles | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO This is a shockingly low price considering the two teams involved. You’d have to consider the White Sox as one of the top American League teams. They’ve basically led the AL Central the whole way and currently enjoy a 7.5 game lead over the rest of their division. That’s the largest lead for any current division leader. They have a 51-33 record and a +99 run differential. They did not play Thursday after taking two in a row from the Twins. Baltimore is the worst team in the American League. They are 30 games under .500 and have a -120 run differential. They got rained out yesterday, which probably spared them another loss. Even with several players still injured, the White Sox have a stronger lineup than the Orioles. They swept them back on Memorial Day Weekend, taking all four games at Guaranteed Rate Field by multiple runs. Look for more of the same Friday. Dallas Keuchel is off a rough start, but has a 3.23 ERA in nine previous starts vs. Baltimore. Jorge Lopez, the Orioles starter for this game, hasn’t been good at all. He has a 4-13 team start record and is 0-5 his L5 starts. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-08-21 | Tigers v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER A new series starts Thursday with two teams at/near the bottom of the AL Central. Minnesota has been one of the biggest disappointments of the first half. They are in last place with a 35-50 record and could end up being sellers at the trade deadline. Only Arizona, who is having a disastrous year, has dropped more units at the betting window than have the Twins. They’ve lost seven of nine including each of the past two days to the White Sox. Detroit has been surprisingly competitive of late with wins in six of its last eight. They just beat Texas 5-3 yesterday afternoon. The thing about the Tigers though is you can’t really trust their offense. They are down among the lowest scoring American League teams. Lucky for them then that the Twins have scored just one run each of their last two games. The respective starters for Thursday - Tarik Skubal for Detroit and J.A. Happ for Minnesota - don’t exactly have the most sparkling numbers. But we expect both to pitch well in this spot. Both are lefties. Neither team is great vs. left-handed pitching. The Tigers are on a 10-3-2 run to the Under when facing a team that scored two runs or less in its last game. After a recent offensive surge and the Over going 7-0-2 their past nine games, they are due for a bit of a decline. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-08-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers have had their problems with Miami in this series, losing all three games so far. They’ll look to avoid the sweep this afternoon behind Jose Urias. He is 10-3 in his 17 starts (13-4 TSR) with a 3.81 ERA and 1.067 WHIP. Numbers on the road - where he has gone 7-2 - are even better. The first two losses of the series saw the Dodgers go down by one run each time. Yesterday was 9-6 final decided on a walk-off HR by Jesus Aguilar. The Marlins have now walked off two days in a row. So it’s not as if the Dodgers have necessarily been dominated, or are even playing poorly. Remember that this is the team that carries the best run differential in the National League (+113) and is one of only four teams - in all of baseball - with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Miami is better than its record, but still in last place in the NL East. July has been the worst month for starter Sandy Alcantara in terms of ERA (4.95). That’s for his career. The Dodgers had won nine in a row coming into this series. Only two times this season have they lost four in a row. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-07-21 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Yankees beat the Mariners last night by a score of 12-1. That made us happy as we were on the road team. The Yankees were very desperate for a win as they are 4th in the American League East and had previously dropped seven of nine games. Starting the series with such an emphatic win is something they hope leads to a strong final week before the All Star Break. For the Mariners, blowout losses are not uncommon. They have a -53 run differential on the year. We point that out because their record is 45-41. The 34-52 Rangers have a -51 run differential. So Seattle is lucky to even be in Wild Card contention. Tonight’s game may not end up being so lopsided, but we anticipate it being just as high scoring. In his last four starts, the Yankees’ Domingo German has allowed 18 runs in 15.3 innings. That’s more runs than Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi has allowed in his last nine starts combined. But Kikuchi is facing a team that just put 12 runs on the board last night. The Yankees are 5-1 Over their last six games. Seattle is 6-1 Over after a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-07-21 | Phillies -131 v. Cubs | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -131 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies have taken the first two games at Wrigley Field and the Cubs have now lost 11 in a row overall. Yesterday’s final score ended up being 15-10, but the Phillies initially led 7-0 and 15-4. That was after a 13-3 win on Monday. Those kind of scores and an 11-game losing streak pretty much “paints the picture” and is all you really need to know about what’s taking place in the Windy City right now. In 17 of the last 22 games, the Cubs have not scored more than three runs. Yesterday was only the third instance (in those last 22 games) of them scoring more than four runs and that’s only because of some late, meaningless damage in the final three innings. We don’t see the Cubs doing much offensively early in tonight’s game as they are set to face Zack Wheeler. Over 17 starts, Wheeler has a 2.05 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He has not allowed a single run in four of his last five starts and all four saw him go at least six innings. The task for Cubs starter Alec Mills is tough as the Phillies have homered eight times in two games. The Cubs have been outscored 83-35 during this losing streak. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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07-07-21 | Tigers v. Rangers -147 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS We went with the Rangers yesterday, even though they had a starter (Dane Dunning) who came in with a 4-12 team start record. They beat the Tigers 10-5. So we’ve got little hesitation selecting them again today as they hand Kyle Gibson (6-0, 1.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP) the ball for the series finale. Gibson has undoubtedly been the Rangers best starter in 2021. In addition to having not dropped a single decision, he has 12 quality starts to his name and is working on a streak of nine straight (starts) where he’s allowed two runs or less. At home, Gibson has an 8-0 TSR, 1.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He is the American League’s ERA leader. Detroit’s leadoff hitter is injured and they could only muster up five hits yesterday. We think they’ve been pretty lucky to have scored 12 runs in the two games so far at Arlington. Casey Mize, who is being limited to no more than three innings, will start this game for the Tigers. He’s going to have to deal with John Hicks, who has four homers in four games since being called up. Texas is 7-1 L8 as home favorites and has the clear edge in starting pitching today. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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07-06-21 | Yankees -144 v. Mariners | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES The Yankees could really use a win here as they are stuck in fourth place in the AL East and only a game over .500. They split a doubleheader with the Mets on Sunday, but have dropped seven of nine overall. Seattle keeps defying the odds with a better than .500 record as they’ve given up a lot more runs than they have scored this season. They have a better record than the Yankees, but the oddsmakers are not fooled by that and neither are we. A big problem for the Yankees recently has been the bullpen, specifically Aroldis Chapman. But we like the matchup of Jameson Taillon going against a Seattle lineup that hits only .207 at home. Taillon has won his last two starts, both in blowout fashion. There was an 8-1 win over Kansas City and 11-3 win over the Angels. Taillon has been much better when pitching outside the division (as those last two starts show). Justus Sheffield has not had a good year for the Mariners and things appear to be getting worse as his ERA and WHIP are now 5.75 and 1.70. He’s made one career start vs. the Yankees and it did not go well. He allowed five runs in 4.3 innings. The Yankees are 21-5 their last 26 games in Seattle. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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07-06-21 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The first place White Sox came into Monday with a 14.5 game lead over the last place Twins. A big reason for that was an 8-1 head to head record in the season series. But the AL Central leaders could not get the bats going until it was too late last night and ended up losing 8-5. It was the third straight loss for the White Sox, tied for their second longest losing streak of the season. They have gone Over in eight straight games, but injuries are mounting and will begin to take a toll on this lineup. Jose Berrios is who will be starting today for Minnesota. He’s really had the White Sox number in the past. Berrios is 12-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 18 previous starts against them. He may not be as good as Bailey Ober was last night, but Berrios hasn’t given up more than four runs in any start this year. We don’t expect to see another eight-run effort from the Twins tonight as they face All-Star Carlos Rodon. The numbers for Rodon are better on the road than at home. He and Berrios faced off last week and while that game also ended up being an 8-5 final (but in favor of the White Sox), this one should feature a lot less scoring. Rodon has allowed one or no runs in 10 of his 14 starts this year. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-06-21 | Tigers v. Rangers -170 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TEXAS The Rangers got beat 7-3 in Monday’s series opener. Three errors and a failure to really get anything going against Tigers starter Wily Peralta doomed them. But we think they’ll bounce back on Tuesday when they get to face the struggling Jose Urena. June was very unkind to Urena as he went 0-4 with a 12.50 ERA. Most damning of all is that he pitched a total of just 18 innings and gave up 28 runs! Urena did not factor into the decision the last time he pitched, a game the Tigers won 9-4 in Cleveland. The reason Urena did not factor into the decision is he allowed FOUR home runs! He was quite fortunate that all four were solo shots. Texas homered twice with two outs in the bottom of the ninth last night. Hopefully, they can homer in more meaningful spots tonight. On the mound, Dane Dunning is still having his innings limited. But he did toss four scoreless innings last week vs. Oakland. Dunning has a 79-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. One Tigers’ hitter that he won’t have to worry about is leadoff man Daz Cameron, who sprained his toe before Monday’s game. His replacement Akil Baddoo went 0 for 5 in the leadoff spot last night. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Reds are one of the higher scoring NL teams, so with the DH in play here in Kansas City it stands to reason they will have no trouble scoring runs off Royals pitching. Now Cincy has been winning in relatively low-scoring fashion recently. They’ve had to put no more than three runs on the board in each of the last three wins. But tonight they’re up against Mike Minor, who has an 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in his last three starts. Minor gave up five runs to Boston in his last start. That was after giving up nine to Texas. The Over is 6-2 in all Minor home starts this year. But also with poor numbers of late is Reds starter Gutierrez. He has a 8.22 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in his last three starts. He just gave up six runs to San Diego his last time out. The Royals had scored a combined 13 runs the previous two days before losing 6-2 Sunday. They are giving up 5.1 runs/game for the year. Meanwhile, on average, Reds’ games are already the second highest scoring in the league (trailing only the Angels). Play on OVER AAA |
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07-05-21 | Dodgers -153 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -153 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAD Miami is a team we faded on Sunday and they ended up losing 8-7 (in 10 innings) to Atlanta. In the analysis, we talked about how the Marlins had been held to three runs or less in 12 of their previous 16 games. Well, they broke out for seven (runs) yesterday and still lost. The Dodgers are a team we routinely take and that’s for good reason. They are one of baseball’s best. They made it a four-game sweep of Washington on Sunday with a 5-1 win. That was LA’s ninth win in a row overall. So they are firing on all cylinders right now as they send Walker Buehler to the mound this evening. Buehler has an 11-5 team start record this year. Personally, he’s gone 8-1 and has a 0.90 WHIP. His numbers are a little bit better on the road, but regardless of where he’s pitched, Buehler is working on a streak of nine consecutive quality starts. Trevor Rogers looks like a fine option for Miami but the problem is he’s up against a juggernaut. The Dodgers offense averages a full run more per game than the Marlins. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-04-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF -1.5 Arizona did win a game in this series (Thursday) but wasted little time in reverting back to their “normal ways” by losing each of the last two days. It was a non-competitive affair on Friday (Giants won 11-4) before a 6-5 final last night. The Giants actually needed a late 2-run homer from pinch-hitter Austin Slater to win the game. But while this series has been a bit more competitive than the Giants expected, the season as a whole paints a picture where you’ll want to be on them tonight. They are 8-1 vs. the Diamondbacks in 2021 and 16-3 against them the last three years. Arizona has the worst record in baseball and a loss tonight would leave them 40 games below .500. They’ve lost a staggering 49 of their last 57 games! We all know about the struggles on the road, but they are also just 5-21 their last 26 home games. Has Caleb Smith (Sunday’s scheduled starter) pitched well for them of late? Yes he has. But he’s received little to no run support. The Giants are in first place with a 52-30 record, which has them 30.5 games up on Arizona! They’ve given up 177 fewer runs! Part of the reason for that is Anthony DeSclafani, who is 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA. Each of his last five starts, DeSclafani has allowed three runs or less. He’s allowed only seven runs total (and 19 hits) in 32 innings of work. This seems to be a “no-brainer” and we will even lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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07-04-21 | Marlins v. Braves -185 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Miami (35-46) isn’t having a good season but they are 6-3 vs. Atlanta following a 3-2 win last night. The Braves did have more hits Saturday. Neither team has done much scoring in this particular series as the Braves won the opener 1-0 on Friday. Last night proved to be their sixth failed attempt at getting to .500 on the year. Still they’ve won 10 of 17 and three of their last four games. Charlie Morton on the mound means the Marlins probably aren’t going to score many runs today either. Morton has a 1.31 ERA and 0.58 WHIP his last three starts. All three starts were quality as Morton allowed just three runs (all in the last one) and nine hits. He had 25 strikeouts and only three walks. A 20 ⅔ scoreless inning streak was snapped in his last start. The Braves actually lost that game, 4-3 to the Mets, though Morton did not factor into the decision. He has a 6-2 team start record in his last eight starts. Miami has been held to three runs or less in 12 of its previous 16 games. So all we need here is for the Braves’ hitters to break out to a reasonable degree and we like their chances as they are averaging 5.4 runs/gamme at home. Zach Thompson has just four starts under his belt and this will be Atlanta’s second time seeing him. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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07-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It was a pretty misleading final score last night at Coors Field. The Cardinals won 9-3, but scored six runs in the top of the 10th. Still, while the game ended up higher scoring than what it “should have been” (still went Under), this is Coors Field and plenty of runs should always be expected. The Rockies, as is usually the case every year, lead all teams in runs per game at home. This year, the number is 5.8 runs/game. You can count on Colorado scoring more tonight than they did Friday as they will face Wade LeBlanc, who has made two less than impressive starts for St. Louis. The Rockies’ last six games have all gone Under, which is atypical, especially since the last five have all taken place at home. But they’re not facing the Pirates anymore (who they swept in the last series and shutout twice). The Cardinals should put up runs here against Kyle Freeland, who has a 6.54 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. While Freeland has allowed just one run total in his last two starts, those were against Pittsburgh and Seattle, perhaps the two weakest offenses in MLB. After a string of low-scoring games here, expect the typical Coors Field affair on Saturday night. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-03-21 | Dodgers -189 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LA You get the feeling that if Washington was going to beat the Dodgers this weekend, yesterday was the best shot. They had Max Scherzer on the mound and a 3-1 lead through six. But the bullpen really let the Nationals down on Friday, giving up a nine-run 7th. While it’s true that we were on the Nats last night, Clayton Kershaw going here for the Dodgers means it’s time to “abandon ship” and get on the other side in a hurry. Kershaw is having another solid year with a 3.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The team is only 10-7 in his 17 starts, but easily won the last one (9-1 over the Cubs) with Kershaw striking out 13 and allowing one run in eight innings. That was his fourth straight quality start. The Dodgers have now won seven in a row overall and the five runs given up yesterday were the most in any game during the streak. They’ve allowed only 15 runs total in the seven games. The Nationals' task of scoring runs against Kershaw is now even harder as they lost Kyle Schwarber to an injury yesterday. Schwarber had homered 16 times in June, a franchise record. Washington’s starter Paolo Espino has looked good so far, but it’s a small sample size (just three starts) and he hasn’t faced a lineup like the Dodgers (#1 in NL in scoring) yet. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-02-21 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The White Sox just swept a series against another division rival (Minnesota). All three games also went Over. The team’s win streak and Over streak is actually now at four, going back to a 7-5 win against Seattle on Sunday. In each of the four games, Chicago scored seven or more runs. Not sure they’ll go that high today. But they’ll score enough to help another game go Over the total. They average 5.0 runs/game on the road. The number here is pretty low considering how hot the White Sox have been at the plate of late. Also, Detroit totaled 16 runs in a doubleheader sweep of Cleveland on Wednesday. They had yesterday off. Lance Lynn, who had been having an outstanding year for Chicago, has struggled some of late. His ERA in the last three starts is 5.54 and his WHIP is 1.54. The team is 0-4 in his last four starts. He’s certainly owed some run support though as the White Sox have scored only nine runs in those last four starts. We think he’ll get the requisite run support here. But also look for Detroit to put some runs on the board. Casey Mize will start for the Tigers on Friday. 13 of his 15 starts have stayed Under, but we’ll buck that trend as this will be the third time the White Sox have faced him in 2021. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-02-21 | Brewers v. Pirates +1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PIT +1.5 Milwaukee has really taken control of the Central, thanks to a nine-game win streak. It also helps that the Cubs have lost six in a row. After sweeping the Cubs over the weekend and outscoring them 31-12, the Brewers beat the Pirates 7-2 yesterday. That was their fourth straight win over the Bucs dating back to a sweep in Milwaukee last month. The Pirates are obviously having a terrible year. Yesterday was their fourth loss in a row. They’ve scored only four runs in the four games. But don’t be surprised to see them “shock the world” on Friday. Given all the above info, this line is a bit of a shock. We’ve got reason to be a little apprehensive, so that’s why we’re going with the run line. Pittsburgh starter Brubaker is pretty good though and is capable of pitching his team to the win today. Brubaker has a 0.921 WHIP at home this year and a 0.962 WHIP in his last three starts overall. The fact his TSR is 0-3 in those last three starts while Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser has a 3-0 TSR his last three starts (despite a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP) seems unjust. Houser is 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Pittsburgh, five of those being starts. Brubaker beat Houser earlier in the year when he allowed just one run in six innings. Play PITTSBURGH +1.5 AAA |
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07-02-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals -103 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON This might be as good a time as any to fade the Dodgers. We are getting Max Scherzer starting at home for the Nationals at a very discounted price. Los Angeles did win Thursday’s series opener 6-2. But that was a rain-shortened game. It was called after five innings and the difference was a Muncy grand slam for the Dodgers. Washington had the early 2-1 lead going into the fifth. While it was the sixth straight win for the Dodgers, all of them before yesterday were at home. The Nationals came into this series on their own four-game win streak and 14-3 in their last 17 games. As good as Urias has been for LA, Scherzer has better numbers. Scherzer has made 10 straight starts without giving up more than two earned runs. In the month of June, he went 3-0 and allowed just three runs in four starts. He only allowed 12 hits! Let’s not forget about the other “hot” player for the Nats, that being Kyle Schwarber. He’d homered 12 times in the previous 10 games before yesterday. He didn’t get a full nine innings to extend that streak. Urias has allowed at least one home run in seven straight starts. This is a big revenge game for the home team as they are 0-4 vs. the Dodgers this season. If there were ever a spot where you’d take them to beat the reigning World Series champs, it would be this one. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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07-01-21 | Mets -157 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYM We shouldn’t have to sell you too much on the idea of betting Jacob deGrom. The Mets have won the last eight times he has started and he hasn’t allowed a run in five of those outings. He’s allowed only four runs total in the eight starts and only six all season! Yes, this is an all-time great season as deGrom has a record-setting 0.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP. He hasn’t even allowed a single run on the road. We could think of no one better to be on the mound as the Mets look to rebound from a humiliating 20-2 loss to the Braves last night. In retrospect, Atlanta probably should have “saved” some of that scoring for today. deGrom did allow two runs in the last start, but that was after allowing zero runs in five consecutive starts. Honestly, it’s just as simple as betting the best pitcher in baseball in this one. This will be just the third time in his last 11 starts that deGrom isn’t a favorite of -235 or higher on the money line. The other two were both against San Diego and the Mets won those. Play on NY METS AAA |
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07-01-21 | Astros v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Houston just suffered what was possibly the most shocking sweep of the MLB season, losing all three games to Baltimore as big-time favorites. Now they turn around and head to Cleveland to face an Indians team that was just swept in a doubleheader - by Detroit - yesterday. The Astros have played 16 games in 16 days. So fatigue could be a factor for both clubs heading into this one. Nevertheless, we expect the hitters to take charge in tonight’s series opener. Houston is the highest scoring team in baseball at 5.8 runs/game and actually averages more when they are on the road. Tonight they go against JC Mejia, a starting pitcher that has a 6.27 ERA so far this year. It should be pointed out that Indians pitching allowed 16 runs in only 14 innings yesterday to a Tigers team that averages significantly fewer runs/game than the Astros do. The saving grace for Cleveland is that they score about a half run more per game at home than on the road. They will face Framber Valdez Thursday. Valdez has allowed a HR in three straight starts. The Indians have gone Over in their last six home games vs. a left-handed starter. The last five Houston series openers have gone Over as well. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-01-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOR -1.5 These teams have similar records, but we believe Toronto to be far superior. Certainly, the oddsmakers seem to be in agreement with us, given how the home team has been priced in this series. The Blue Jays have closed north of -200 on the money line each of the last two days. Now they did lose yesterday, 9-7 in 10 innings. Somehow Seattle has managed to go 9-1 in extra inning games this year. That partly explains how they have one more win than the Blue Jays, despite a vastly inferior run differential. The Mariners have played 81 games so far. They’ve been outscored by 47 runs. Toronto has played 78 games. They’ve outscored their opponents by 69 runs. That’s quite the massive difference in run differential. So we’ve got no problem laying the -1.5 on the run line this afternoon. Remember that Toronto won the first game of the series, 9-3. Whether it’s been Florida or NY, the Blue Jays have averaged 5.8 runs/game at home. Seattle is actually being outscored by 1.3 runs/game on the road. We must concede that Kikuchi has pitched well recently for the Mariners. But he does have 10 walks in his last three starts. Ryu has very similar numbers for Toronto, who are also 19-8 in day games. Play TORONTO -1.5 AAA |
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06-30-21 | Rangers v. A's -180 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 7* on OAK Texas upset Oakland 5-4 last night. That didn’t sit well with us as we played the A’s. The home team scored first (in the bottom of the first), then immediately retook the lead in the bottom of the fourth after allowing the Rangers to tie the game up in the top half of that inning. But from there, Texas took control. The visitors scored one run in the 5th, one in the 6th and two more in the 9th. Oakland tried to rally with two of their own in the bottom of the 9th, but came up one short. It was the Rangers’ first win all year following an off-day (previously 0-10) and the A’s first loss (previously 10-0) in that very situation. The A’s - despite being just 3-7 in their L10 games - remain monster favorites on the money line Wednesday and we can’t help but think they will bounce back. The pitching matchup for tonight is a rematch of a game played last Thursday with Allard going for Texas and Bassitt going for the A’s. Bassitt won the first go-around by allowing just one run in seven innings. Allard allowed four in six innings. Bassitt is currently riding a career-best eight game win streak as he has not dropped a decision since early April. Don’t overthink this one too much. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-30-21 | Angels v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Yankees finally got a win on Tuesday and in doing so they scored 11 runs. That’s more than they scored during the entirety of their four-game losing streak, which was snapped yesterday. So don’t go expecting another game like that from the home team. Last night was the Yankees season high in runs scored for a single game. They’ll be facing the dynamic Shohei Ohtani tonight. After hitting three homers in the last two games, Ohtani now returns to the mound where he’s produced a 2.58 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 11 starts this year. His last start marked the sixth time he’s allowed one run or less. The fact that he’s pitching tonight probably will have an effect on his hitting, so don’t go expecting him to add to his MLB-leading 27 home run total. It’s amazing though that he’s every bit as good a pitcher as he is a hitter. The Yankees’ Domingo German is only focused on pitching right now as he looks to turn around a rough June. This may be the right opponent as German has a 0.82 ERA in three previous appearances vs. the Angels. Road teams have hit just .213 at Yankees Stadium this year. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-29-21 | Rangers v. A's -176 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -176 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND The trends are absolutely incredible when these two teams take the field after a day off. Texas is 0-10 this year after a day off. Oakland is 10-0! Neither played Monday, so guess who we’ll be going with? While it’s only June, it’s hard to think the Rangers haven’t already thrown the towel in on 2021. In last place in the AL West, an eight-game gap exists between them and the next closest team. They aren’t going to make that up. While the Rangers did manage to split four games with the A’s last week, that was in Arlington. Things have been rough on the road this year for the Rangers as they have gone 10-27. Mike Foltynewicz will start Tuesday’s game and he’s not having a great season. The team is just 5-10 with him on the mound and his numbers on the road are very bad (7.40 ERA, 1.73 WHIP). He did win his last start, against the A’s, last week. But he’d been shelled in the three previous starts. James Kaprielian will start opposite Foltynewicz for the second time in a row. Kaprielian had a near identical statline to Foltynewicz in the game last Wednesday. He allowed two runs and five hits (one fewer than Foltynewicz) in six innings. Key though is Kapriellian has been much more consistent in 2021. He hasn’t allowed a run in either start here at home, going 13 innings. The A’s are 17-5 as a home favorite of -175 or more. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-28-21 | Orioles v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is 10* on OVER These teams played a three-game series in Baltimore and it went just like you thought it would. Houston won all three games. They scored 10 and 13 runs in two of the wins. Now having won 12 of their last 14, the Astros are massive favorites at home Monday. This despite losing two of their last three games (to Detroit!) all in low scoring fashion. Baltimore has lost 22 of its last 23 road games though, so Houston deserves this level of favoritism. We don’t want to bet any team in this price range though. But because they scored 93 runs in a 10-game win streak (ended Saturday), we’ve got no issues taking the Astros to go Over the total tonight. Baltimore has given up 10 or more runs in half of its previous 10 games. They lost 12-4 yesterday. Today’s starter Eshelman gave up six runs when he faced the Astros last week and that was in only four innings. The Over is 12-4 in Zack Greinke starts this season for Houston. Part of the reason for that is a 5.24 home ERA. The Astros are also the highest scoring team in baseball. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-27-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -183 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 7* on LA DODGERS The Cubs and Dodgers finish their four game series tonight on ESPN. After being no-hit in the first game, the home team has come back to win each of the last two days, by scores of 6-2 and 3-2. It was a walk-off HR by Cody Bellinger that won the game last night. Before Bellinger’s walk-off, the Dodgers hadn’t scored since the first inning. They likely aren’t going to need to score many runs to win tonight either as Clayton Kershaw starts the finale. Kershaw is working on a streak of three straight quality starts. He’s allowed three runs or less 11 different times in 2021. The shortest start of his career came May 4th at Wrigley Field, so Kershaw is out for revenge tonight. Pitching at home, look for him to turn the tables on a Cubs lineup that is batting only .218 away from home. Kershaw has 0.96 WHIP at Dodger Stadium. Alzolay has a 5.68 ERA his past three starts for the Cubs, who are just 2-8 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. The Dodgers are the highest scoring team in the National League and the only teams in all of baseball with a better run differential are the Astros and Giants. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-27-21 | Yankees -147 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY YANKEES The Yankees have lost five in a row to the Red Sox, including two times in this series. Previous to that, they were on a 23-6 against them. But today looks like the ideal time to turn things back around as Gerrit Cole will be starting. Cole, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts, has a 2.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Pitching for a team like the Yankees, you’d think he’d have a better team start record than 8-7. But Cole does also have the most strikeouts (123) through 15 starts for any Yankees starter EVER. There’s just no comparison between him and Eduardo Rodriguez, today’s starter for Boston. Over his last eight starts, Rodriguez is 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA. Opponents are hitting .325 off him. Somehow, the Red Sox offense continues to bail him out as the team has won his last four starts. But because Cole is the opposition here, don’t look for the Boston bats to bail Rodriguez out again. He’s given up at least four runs in seven of those past eight starts. We have a hard time believing that Boston would sweep the Yankees twice in the same month. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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06-26-21 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Rays beat the Angels last night by a score of 4-3. That makes the Rays 5-0 in the season series as they swept a four-game set back in May. The Angels have lost four in a row overall, scoring just nine runs in the process. They scored exactly three in losses to the Rays, Giants and Tigers plus they were also blanked by the Giants on Tuesday. Tampa Bay has won three straight, including a game on Thursday where they did not get a hit until the eighth inning. But you can look for the hitters - on both teams - to wake up on Saturday. Alex Cobb is pitching today for the visitors. He’s got a 6.64 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road. He’d allowed five runs in back to back starts before shutting Detroit down in his last one. The Angels scored 11 runs in Cobb’s last start, so the Over is 3-0 the past three times he’s taken the mound. For the Rays, it’s Shane McClanahan. This will be his fifth start in June and he’s still without a win. McClanahan has actually pitched fairly well despite the lack of wins, but he has a higher WHIP than you like to see and a 4.67 ERA on the road. The Over has hit five straight times when the Angels are in the second game of a series. The Over is also 14-4 their last 18 games overall. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD The Cubs shocked us last night, not only beating the Dodgers but no-hitting them! The 4-0 win was certainly not what we had envisioned when playing the Dodgers on the run line. Los Angeles is now 0-4 vs. Chicago this year and yesterday was their fourth straight loss overall. Earlier this week, they were swept in San Diego. There’s a real sense of “underachieving” hovering around the team right now, but we are doubling down tonight and saying the Dodgers put an end to this madness with an emphatic win Friday. The Cubs are 2-7 as road underdogs of +125 to +175 this year. They are 8-16 in that role the last three seasons. The Dodgers had been shut out only one other time this year (before last night) and in that case they came back to win 3-0 the next day. They are 6-1 since 2019 after being shutout. They are 3-0 in Gonsolin starts in 2021 (that’s who is starting today). Jake Arrieta is 0-4 with an 8.25 ERA his last five starts for Chicago. The Dodgers, despite the recent woes, should still be considered one of MLB’s elite teams. They are not going to lose every game to the Cubs this year. We don’t need to lay the -1.5 today and a Dodgers win here seems quite likely. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-24-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 After being swept down in San Diego, the Dodgers look to regroup this weekend. It’ll be the Cubs paying them a visit and this is a revenge series for the home team who got swept at Wrigley Field early in May. We look for this series to go a whole lot differently. Or at least today’s game where Walker Buehler will pitch for Los Angeles. Buehler has a 10-4 team start record this year, but has not dropped a decision. His record is 7-0 and he’s coming off a performance where he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and had a season-high 11 strikeouts. He’s 3-0 his past three starts with an ERA of 0.89 and a WHIP of 0.74. When the no-hitter was finally broken up by Arizona last Saturday, Buehler had not allowed any runs in his previous 20 innings of work. The Cubs have lost six of nine and before winning 7-1 against Cleveland Tuesday, they had not topped three runs in any of those contests. They really struggle at the plate on the road (.218 average) and we don’t see Davies helping out too much as he has a 1.77 WHIP in seven road starts. The Dodgers are 4-1 this year following three straight losses. Since the money line is pretty high, you’ll want to play the run line here as we think the home team wins this one pretty easily. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 AAA |
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06-24-21 | Indians v. Twins -179 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -179 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA It says a lot that Minnesota would be favored like this. The Twins have drastically underachieved in 2021 as they are 31-42 and in last place in the Central. But coming into the season, it was projected that they’d be battling with the White Sox for division supremacy, They did win the division each of the last two years. So looking at this line, it seems as if the oddsmakers still believe a turnaround is possible. We agree. Cleveland, who is 10 games up on the Twins right now, has seen its starting rotation decimated by injuries. That’s why you have Jean Carlos Mejia starting tonight’s game. Making four starts so far, Mejia has been bad. He gave up six runs to Pittsburgh in a game where there was no DH. He has an 11.17 ERA the last three starts. Minnesota had shown signs of turning things around recently as they’d won five in a row before losing 10-7 to the Reds on Tuesday. They’ve scored seven runs in four of their last six games. So it should be a solid night at the plate vs. Mejia. One spot where the Twins always seem to do well is when Jose Berrios is pitching. They’ve won his last seven starts. Berrios looks to extend that win streak here against a team he’s pitched pretty well against in the past. The Indians are 0-6 the L6 meetings in Minnesota. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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06-23-21 | Brewers -175 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee actually dropped the series opener to Arizona, but then wasted little in bouncing back with a 5-0 win last night. Yesterday’s loss means the Diamondbacks are 3-32 in their L35 games. They’ve lost 41 of 47. They’d lost a franchise record 17 in a row coming into the series and there is seemingly no light at the end of the tunnel here. Ketel Marte, who is hitting .366, left in the first inning last night with an injury, Arizona ended up with just two hits in the game. Adding insult to injury, there was an embarrassing play in the field Tuesday where a Brewers runner that pulled up lame rounding third was still able to score. Believe it or not, it gets words. Caleb Smith, who is this afternoon’s starting pitcher, is 0-4 in four career starts vs. Milwaukee. Brandon Woodruff goes for the Brewers. Despite being off a rare poor outing (was in Colorado), Woodruff has 1.94 ERA and 0.76 WHIP this season. Both numbers are among the best for qualified starters. The Brewers are 10-4 in Woodruff starts. How could you NOT take them here? This game may not be the focal point of the Milwaukee media on Wednesday, but the town’s sports fans will have something to cheer about before the Bucks game even tips off. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-22-21 | A's -145 v. Rangers | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Oakland lost Monday, 8-3 to the Rangers. Because of that they’re now a game back (of Houston) in the AL West. We expect them to bounce back Tuesday. The last three times Cole Irvin has started a game for the A’s, they’ve been victorious. He’s on the hill tonight. Irvin didn’t have his best stuff in his last start when he gave up four runs. But the two before that were both quality outings. Texas was originally set to go with Jordan Lyles, but now it’s Taylor Hearn, who usually comes out of the bullpen. Hearn has never started a game before at the big league level. The Rangers are the last place team in the division and with a 10-game gap to make up, that’s where they will likely stay for the remainder of 2021. They’d lost six games in a row going into Monday. Oakland has now lost three in a row for just the the third time since starting the year 0-6. Each of the previous two times, they’ve responded by winning. In fact, we took them the last time they were in the situation and it was a 12-6 win against Seattle. The A’s are 8-1 this year as road favorites of -125 to -175. They are in that range today. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-22-21 | Astros -190 v. Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on HOUSTON They were such an easy winner yesterday, why not go with the Astros again today? We can’t believe they’re not north of -200 on the money line. As previously discussed, the two teams here are going in very opposite directions. Coming off last night’s win and an impressive four-game sweep of the White Sox, Houston has won eight in a row. They have taken the lead in the AL West, by a game over the Athletics, and have the best run differential in the sport right now (+120). So much for being a byproduct of cheating. Baltimore could probably afford to steal a sign or two as they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 games. They have the worst record/run differential in the American League. Most are aware of how dire things have gotten for the Orioles on the road, where they’ve lost 19 straight times. But they also are no good at Camden Yards. A 12-24 home record is very poor. That’s the most home losses in baseball. Pitching today for the Astros will be Greinke. Since we were willing to take Jake Odorizzi yesterday, taking Greinke is a no-brainer. He has an 11-4 TSR. On the road, he has a 2.20 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Jorge Lopez goes for Baltimore. He has an 8.36 ERA and 1.71 WHIP his last three starts. Can you say “mismatch?” Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-21-21 | Astros -163 v. Orioles | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON We’ve got two teams going in opposite directions here. Coming off an impressive four-game sweep of the White Sox, Houston has won seven in a row. They have taken the lead in the AL West, by percentage points at least, with the best run differential in the sport right now (+112). So much for being a byproduct of cheating. Baltimore could probably afford to steal a sign or two as they’ve lost 10 of their last 11. They have the worst record/run differential in the American League. Most are aware of how dire things have gotten for the Orioles on the road, where they’ve lost 19 straight times. But they also are no good at Camden Yards. A 12-23 home record is very poor. That’s the most home losses in baseball. Jake Odorizzi isn’t our favorite pitcher on the Houston staff, but he’ll suffice tonight. Akin starts for Baltimore after giving up eight runs in his previous start. The Astros score 5.8 runs/game on the road. That’s the highest average in baseball. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-20-21 | Phillies v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Giants had a five-game win streak snapped yesterday in a most shocking way as the Phillies beat them 13-6. Those 13 runs scored by the Phillies were nearly as many as the number they’d scored the previous five games combined (16), all of which were Unders. The Giants are typically one of the stingier teams in baseball as their pitching staff has allowed a batting average of just .218 for the year and .204 at home. Now Sammy Long, making his first career start, is a bit of a question mark for Sunday. But given the Phillies’ previous offensive woes, we believe Long will limit them. Phillies pitching has also been pretty good of late. In the seven games leading up to yesterday, they’d allowed an average of only 3.3 runs and a .196 batting average. Spencer Howard was scratched so that Zach Eflin can go Sunday. We like the move as Eflin is coming off two good starts in a row, both of which went Under. This game should be nothing like yesterday. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-20-21 | Marlins v. Cubs -143 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO Two straight humiliating defeats at home is definitely not what the Cubs expected from this series vs. the Marlins. They’ve been outscored 21-3 the past two days. Typically, when a home team gets roughed up, they bounce back the following day. That didn’t happen for the Cubs yesterday, but we think it will today. This is a good home team. They’re 24-12 at Wrigley Field in 2021 and 92-57 here since the beginning of 2019. Miami is just 15-25 on the road in 2021 and 60-93 since the beginning of ‘19. Considering that the Cubs are averaging a healthy 5.0 runs/game at the Friendly Confines, you’ve got to think the offense is due to turn things around after a quiet week at the plate. They’ll face Zach Thompson, who has just two big league starts under his belt. He was better in the second one, but still lasted just five innings. Alec Mills will also be making just his third start of 2021 for the Cubs, but he’s a veteran. Miami came into yesterday’s game hitting just .218 on the road this year. They are bound to cool off. The last two days are just not reflective of the two teams. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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06-19-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 There’s really no price that could discourage us from selecting the Dodgers tonight in Arizona. This is truly about as large a mismatch as it gets in this sport. The Dodgers, 3-0 winners on Friday, do not have the best won-loss record in the National League, or even their own division. But they are #1 in the NL in run differential (+96). Arizona is hideous. They have lost 15 in a row and 32 of their last 37 games. In addition to setting a new record for futility on the road (23 straight losses), the team has not won at home since June 1st. At 20-51, the Diamondbacks have the worst record in baseball. Matt Peacock is not the man for the task at hand Saturday night. He is 0-3 over his last three starts with a 7.14 ERA and 2.47 WHIP. He has more walks than strikeouts in those three starts and just gave up 10 hits in 5 innings the last time he pitched. The Dodgers will have Walker Buehler on the mound and he hasn’t allowed a single run in his last two starts. He’s delivered six straight quality starts and the first of those six came against Arizona. Buehler held the D’backs to one hit over seven innings back on May 17th. LA won the game 3-1. They’ll likely win by an even larger margin tonight as 2+ runs will be the difference. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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06-19-21 | Blue Jays -163 v. Orioles | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO Toronto ought to be a lot better than two games below .500 and fourth place in the American League East. They have scored 39 more runs than they’ve allowed this season. But they’ve been headed in the wrong direction this week by losing five in a row. Getting swept by the Yankees is one thing, but losing to Baltimore (which they did Friday) should be considered a real embarrassment. It wasn’t even close as the Jays went down 7-1 in the opener of this three-game series. The Orioles have lost 19 straight road games, but are 6-2 their last eight games at Camden Yards. While they may be better at home, the Orioles aren’t likely to win back to back games here as their starter for today has a 3-7 team start record and is really struggling. It’s Dean Kremer, whose last three starts have resulted in an 8.76 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. Winless at Camden Yards so far (0-3), Kremer has an 8.41 ERA in his home park. Toronto starter Manoah has had no problems pitching on the road where his ERA and WHIP are 1.06 and 0.88. Baltimore is just 9-22 in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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06-18-21 | Brewers -183 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -183 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee dropped a game in Colorado last night as they’ve now lost four in a row. This losing streak, which also saw them get swept at home by Cincinnati, has dropped them out of first place in the National League’s Central Division. They are a game back of the Cubs, who won yesterday. So it’s definitely time for the Brewers to right the ship and we couldn’t think of a better pitcher to have on the mound tonight than Corbin Burnes. With a 2.13 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, Burnes is having a sensational start to the season. The majority of his 11 starts have come at home, but the three on the road have seen him allow only two runs and seven hits. That’s in 18 innings where Burnes has 28 strikeouts vs. only one walk. The Brewers have come out ahead each of the past three times Burnes has started. Ironically, he didn’t have his best stuff last time. He’ll need to be better here as he’s pitching at Coors Field, but the Rockies also figure to give up their fair share of runs in this one. Colorado is on its third four-game win streak of the season. They’ve never been able to make it five. Senzatela is on the mound and he’s been the Rockies’ biggest money-loser in the starting rotation with a 3-10 team start record. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-17-21 | Tigers v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAA -1.5 With Ohtani on the mound, the Angels should easily dominate the Tigers in Thursday’s series opener. Detroit is in off a sweep of the Royals. But they are still 10 games below .500 and have been outscored by 62 runs over the course of their first 68 games. They did have a pair of four-game win streaks last month, but that’s as long a win streak as this team has had in 2021. So odds are that they are going to go down tonight. The Angels just got swept out in Oakland, but had won six in a row before that. Their last home series saw them sweep the Royals. Those three wins were by a total of 17 runs. Ohtani has a 1.85 ERA in his five home starts, so he should keep the Tigers at bay. Anthony Rendon is expected to return to the Angels’ lineup tonight, giving the offense a boost. This is the major league debut for Matt Manning of Detroit. He didn’t pitch all that well down in Triple-A (8.07 ERA with 11 home runs allowed), so why trust him here? This will be a multi-run win by the home team. Play on LA ANGELS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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06-17-21 | Cubs v. Mets -119 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYM We like the Mets to make it a four-game sweep over the Cubs tonight. Both of today’s starting pitchers - Kyle Hendricks for Chicago and Marcus Stroman for New York - enter this game with an 8-5 TSR. But Stroman has the lower ERA and WHIP, plus the benefit of pitching for the hotter team. Of course, right now there is a sense of “gloom” hanging over the Mets as they await the prognosis of Jacob deGrom, who left last night’s game (after three perfect innings) due to right shoulder soreness. But Stroman has also been a key piece of this rotation. While his 2.33 ERA is third best on his own team (behind deGrom and Taijuan Walker), it is ninth best in the whole National League. While it’s true that the Cubs have won six straight Hendricks’ starts, he has a 4.46 ERA, over two full points higher than Stroman. The Cubs have scored only seven runs in this series and were held to one hit until the ninth inning of yesterday’s game. The Mets have a 20-6 home record with the opponents averaging 2.1 runs/game! The Cubs are 14-20 on the road. Play on NY METS AAA |
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06-16-21 | Phillies v. Dodgers -134 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -134 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD The Dodgers will look to make it three in a row over the Phillies tonight and finish off the sweep. We really like their chances of doing so. We had them in last night’s 5-3 win in what was the first full capacity game (for fans) at Chavez Ravine this season. The Dodgers have won seven of eight overall. Though they are a game behind the Giants, there’s really no denying who the oddsmakers would favor if the two NL West rivals were matched up. Just like there’s no denying who should be the favorite in this inter-divisional matchup. Clayton Kershaw is pitching tonight for Los Angeles. Believe it or not, the Phillies are the lone NL team to have a winning all-time record vs. Kershaw (5-4). But we don’t think that record matters much tonight as Kershaw is off a strong outing against Texas, which the Dodgers ended up winning 12-1. Kershaw allowed one unearned run and three hits in six innings. While Wheeler has been pretty good for Philadelphia, he’s no Kershaw and the Phillies’ road record (11-21) is a problem for them. So is Wheeler’s 5.87 career ERA vs. LA. This is a mismatch that is not being priced properly. Don’t overthink this one. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians -155 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND Cleveland continues to have its way with Baltimore as last night they handed the Orioles a 17th straight loss on the road. It was 7-2 on Tuesday after the Indians won the first game of the series 4-3. The MLB record for most consecutive road losses is 22, last matched in 1963. The Orioles have been incredibly sloppy at Progressive Field, committing six errors in the two games. When a bad team is sloppy in the field, they’ve got almost no chance of winning. Aaron Civale has a 10-3 team start record for Cleveland and will start Wednesday night. That TSR is very good. Only three pitchers in all of baseball have 11 team wins to their credit. Civale has been excellent in his last five starts as he’s 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA and only four walks. He struck out a season-best 11 batters last week vs. Seattle while allowing just one hit in eight scoreless innings. Keegan Akin goes for Baltimore. He did throw five scoreless innings vs. Cleveland in the previous series between the teams, a game the Orioles won 3-1. But it’s just too hard to trust him or his team right now. The O’s haven’t just lost 17 in a row on the road, they are 0-6 the L6 overall. They are 21-44 in the third game of a series after losing the first two. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-15-21 | Phillies v. Dodgers -167 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA The Dodgers look to make it two in a row over the Phillies on Tuesday. They won the first game of the series, 3-1. They got only three hits, but two of them were home runs and that was all that was needed to beat a team that’s now just 11-20 on the road. Philadelphia had some momentum coming into this series. They’d won six of seven. But they aren’t likely to fare well against this opponent, which should still be considered the best team in baseball, no matter what the record is. Urias has a 10-3 team start record and 0.97 WHIP for LA. Eflin has posted a career-best ERA for Philadelphia, but is still winless in his last five starts and he has a 9.00 ERA at Dodger Stadium. Expect more offense by the home team tonight. They are 19-9 in home games when they homer at least once. They are 50-16 as a home favorite of -175 to -250 the previous three seasons. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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06-14-21 | Rays v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This should make for an excellent three-game series. We’ve got the first place team in the East and the first place team in the Central. For Monday’s opener, it should be an excellent pitching matchup as Glasnow opposes Lynn. Glasnow checks in with a 2.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He’s been even better of late though with a 1.64 ERA and 0.82 WHIP the last three starts. He has 30 strikeouts in 22 innings and allowed only four runs. That said, Lance Lynn has perhaps been even more dominant. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in every start but one this season. He’s yet to allow more than three. Over his last seven starts, Lynn has given up a total of five earned runs. In the past eight games for both teams, the respective staffs have held the opposition to below a .210 batting average. Five of the last seven games have seen the White Sox give up two runs or less. Tampa has the best bullpen ERA and is 1.59 the past 17 games. Given all of the above, how do you not take the Under here? Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-13-21 | Astros -131 v. Twins | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON The Astros and Twins have split the first two games of this series. We like the road team, behind Framber Valdez, to take the rubber match and series. This will be Valdez’s fourth start in 2021. So far he has faced Boston twice and San Diego. He has not allowed more than one run in any of the starts and has gone progressively deeper into games. He went 7 ⅓ last week at Fenway, struck out eight and walked no one. If Valdez can contain two of the highest scoring teams in baseball, surely he can do the same to a Twins team whose season has generally been pretty miserable. Minnesota has won back to back games only one time in June. That was against Kansas City. Since the first series of the year, there’s been only one other time besides KC where the Twins beat the same team on consecutive days. That was a three-game sweep of Baltimore. Pineda has lasted a total of 7 ⅓ innings his last two starts for the Twins. Houston has yet to lose twice in a row this month. Won’t happen here. This is a very attractive price on the better side. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-13-21 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Colorado continues to be an absolute horror show on the road. They are 5-26 away from Coors Field. Yesterday was even worse than usual, which is really saying something, as they lost 10-3 to the Reds. The last three days have seen them outscored 32-12 including 21-8 in the two games in Cincinnati. The Rockies have now hooked up with the Reds six times in 2021 and at least 11 runs have been scored in every game. Four of those were in Coors, but the two here in the Queen City have seen 16 and 13 total runs scored. So you can’t just attribute the scoring to Denver. The Reds have horrible pitching; they’ve allowed more runs than all but two NL teams (Colorado being one of them). Tony Santillan is being called into duty for his first career big league start on Sunday. While it may seem tough to make a projection on him for this game, we know the Over is 21-8-1 for the Reds after a game where they scored five or more runs. They got to 10 yesterday without even hitting a single home run. It was their 10th game this season scoring 10 or more runs. The Reds give up more than six runs per game at home. Senzatela has a 6.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP on the road for Colorado. This will clearly be a high-scoring affair. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-12-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs -159 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO For a while, it looked like it would be the Cubs and Cardinals competing for NL Central supremacy this year. But now it’s the Brewers that the Cubs are tied with atop the division. They look to take advantage of the slumping Cards again on Saturday with Kyle Hendricks starting the game. St. Louis has just one win in its previous eight games. It was 8-5 Cubs on Friday afternoon as Pederson, Rizzo and Contreras all homered. It was the Cubs third straight win after taking two in San Diego. This is the first series where a full house is allowed at Wrigley Field. "It just felt really energetic," manager David Ross said about yesterday’s game. "The outfield was packed, beautiful day. That was a nice W. ... Clearly, those fans helped us win that game." Hendricks looks to help make it two in a row over the Cardinals and four in a row overall. The last time Hendricks started against St. Louis was 5/21 at Busch Stadium and the Cubs wound up winning 12-3. Hendricks is 5-0 his last five starts, all of them quality. Gant goes for St. Louis and he allowed seven runs his last start. With Gant, the ERA is very misleading as his WHIP is 1.592. Two teams going in opposite directions. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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06-12-21 | Padres -124 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO With only three wins in the last 12 games, this is the coldest the Padres have been all season. In what is poised to be a very tough three-team battle in the NL West with the Dodgers and Giants, SD is currently in third place. But we’ll look for them to bounce back from last night’s 3-2 loss to the Mets behind the sensational Joe Musgove this afternoon. Musgrove deserves way better than a 6-5 team start record in 2021. He has a 2.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. While Musgrove failed to beat the Mets one week ago, that was due to him having to go up against Jacob deGrom, who beat the Padres again last night. In last Saturday’s start, Musgrove had 10 strikeouts in five innings. He did give up three runs, but had allowed two or less in 8 of his first 10 starts this year. The Mets have been tough to beat at home this year (16-5 WL record) and Stroman has been sharp. But Stroman did have a season-high four walks in his last start, which was against San Diego. Look for San Diego to get the job done here behind Musgrove. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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06-11-21 | Royals v. A's -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Oakland should bounce back from a surprising 6-1 loss last night. Kansas City came into this series on a five game losing streak. They were swept down in Los Angeles to start the week. The number of runs that the Royals scored yesterday matched what they has scored in the previous four games combined. Very surprising to see the A’s with only three hits in yesterday’s game. They’d come in on a 7-1 run and had scored a minimum of four runs in every one of those eight games. Brady Singer looks like a good pitcher to target for a fade in this one. He has a 7.71 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over the last three starts. This Royals righty has never pitched in the Pacific Time Zone. The team has won only four of his 12 starts this year. Cole Irvin has the same team start record for Oakland, but a lower ERA and WHIP. Irvin also pitched very well in his last trip to the mound. The A’s were winning 1-0 in the seventh last night before a catcher interference call swung the game dramatically. Thursday’s final score was not indicative of the two teams. Oakland leads the West Division with a 37-27 record. KC is under .500. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-11-21 | White Sox -155 v. Tigers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO We like the White Sox to roll their division rivals in Friday’s series opener. Chicago is having an excellent season thus far. They are first in the Central with a 38-24 record. They’ve allowed the fewest number of runs in the American League. Coming off a winning series against Toronto, the White Sox now head to Detroit. They just took three of four games from the Tigers last week. We get a better price on them on the road, which is nice. The Tigers have been playing somewhat better of late, but are still only 26-36. They’ve scored the least amount of runs in the AL. So their lineup vs. White Sox pitching is quite the mismatch. Lucas Giolito is who the Tigers will face tonight. They did hit three homers off him last weekend when they picked up their only win of the series. But Giolito has previously allowed exactly one earned run in five of six starts in May. He’s allowed no more than three runs in 9 of 12 starts overall. Skubal has a 3-7 TSR for Detroit and only one quality start. Don’t overthink this one. Take the much better team. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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06-10-21 | Brewers -116 v. Reds | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Have to play against Castillo here. The Reds have lost 10 of his 12 starts so far with one of the wins coming last week in St. Louis. That surprisingly strong outing against a slumping Cardinals team should be viewed as the exception rather than the rule, however. Castillo’s ERA (6.63) and WHIP (1.663) both remain very high. He was 0-6 in May. One of those losses was vs. Milwaukee. The Brewers scored five times off Castillo in five innings and went on to take the game 9-4. Freddy Peralta started that game for Milwaukee and will start this one as well. Peralta is having a very different type of season compared to Castillo. The team has won 9 of his 12 starts including four in a row. The last one saw Peralta take a no-hitter into the eighth inning. Opponents are hitting just .133 against Peralta for the year. This is a rubber match with each team having won once in the series. Considering who is on the mound for each team, look for the Brewers to take the series. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-09-21 | Dodgers -165 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the DODGERS The Dodgers and Pirates opened up a three-game series on Tuesday. As you’d expect, the Dodgers won. They got all five of their runs in the fifth and sixth innings while the Pirates got all three of their runs in the eighth and ninth. The home team should have had one more, but Ke’Bryan Hayes made a baserunning blunder in the first inning when he forgot to touch first base after a home run. So he was called out. While it may not have been the prettiest win for the Dodgers on Tuesday, you can’t deny who the better team is in this particular matchup. We think it’s pretty crazy we can get to play the favorite at this price. Pittsburgh is 2-10 this season as a home underdog of +125 to +175. Maybe the price is due to some uncertainty over Tony Gonsolin, who will be making his 2021 debut for the Dodgers in this one? But we have confidence in Gonsolin starting in this spot. He was 6-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 20 starts last year, his rookie season. The Pirates have the least amount of runs scored in baseball. Starting for them here is Tyler Anderson and he has an 8.22 ERA in his last three starts. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-09-21 | Yankees -180 v. Twins | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES The Yankees won yesterday 8-4. It’s been a rough season for Minnesota. They are last in the Central with a 24-36 record. The Yankees are 32-29, probably a disappointment to some, but they are 18-8 outside the AL East. They play in the deepest division in the American League as everyone but Baltimore is good. But they’ve really beat up on everyone else. The Yankees have played the most division games of anyone in the East. What we’re trying to say here is they are going to win again today. Gerritt Cole is starting. We can’t believe the team is only 6-6 in his 12 starts. Cole’s last start was one of his worst. Not to give him a “pass,” but it did come against Tampa Bay. In one-third of his starts, Cole has not allowed a run. In 10 of the 12, he’s allowed two or less runs. No confidence in Randy Dobnak starting opposite Cole for the Twins. Pay little attention to the ongoing “controversy” surrounding Cole and “illegal substances.” The Yankees are 27-11 all-time at Target Field. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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06-08-21 | Indians -160 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND There’s a lot of Interleague games on the board tonight, but this one features what looks to be the biggest pitching mismatch. We went against Carlos Martinez in his last start. That proved to be a wise decision as the right-hander gave up 10 runs in two-thirds of an inning. The Cardinals ended up losing 14-3 to the Dodgers in what was our MLB Game of the Week. The losing streak has now hit five after the team was swept at home by Cincinnati over the weekend. They’ve lost seven out of their last eight. There’s never an ideal time to face Shane Bieber, but this seems like a particularly bad matchup for St. Louis tonight. Bieber, last year’s Cy Young winner in the AL, has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start this season. Cleveland has won his last three times out and nine of the previous 11 times he’s started a game. Making things even worse for St. Louis is that there are multiple injuries in the everyday lineup. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-08-21 | Mariners +110 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Neither Seattle nor Detroit are going to make much noise this season. But expect the Mariners to come out with a chip on their shoulder for Monday’s opener at Comerica Park. They will want to erase the memory of being swept at home by the Tigers last month as quickly as possible. Seattle is off a 14-game stretch of division games that saw them end up 9-5. They beat the Angels on Sunday, 9-5. Marco Gonzales will get the start Monday. He looked good last Tuesday, giving up just one run on two hits. It was his first start in more than a month due to a forearm strain. Even though Seattle ended up losing the game 12-6, we’d safely call it a successful return. Going back to April, Gonzales has allowed no more than two runs in four consecutive outings. That’s good. Matthew Boyd’s last start for Detroit was not good. He allowed three home runs. It was the fourth straight start he gave up at least four runs and in three of those four he allowed five. Detroit still won that last Boyd start, 10-7 over Milwaukee, so it was a much different scenario than what Gonzales experienced in his last start. This is a great price to go against the Tigers. They’ve been money line favorites only six times prior to this. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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06-08-21 | Rockies v. Marlins -177 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI A poor stretch has landed the Marlins in last place in their division. But almost never have we been THIS confident about taking a team that’s lost 9 of its last 10 games. This is because they are back home and facing Colorado. The Rockies are an unthinkable 4-22 in road games so far. They’ve been shut out ten times and outscored more than 2:1 (131-63). Pablo Lopez was set to start Monday for Miami, but was pushed back a day for rest purposes. This is a very good thing. Instead of facing the Red Sox at Fenway Park, Lopez now gets to pitch at home where he’s got 0.98 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Colorado is hitting .197 in road games and scoring just 2.4 runs/game. It gets worse. Antonio Senzatela starts for the Rockies tonight. His team start record away from home is 0-3 and that’s with a 7.14 ERA + 2.03 WHIP. Miami is better than its record and will win this battle of 1993 expansion teams. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 101 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER We also like this Royals-Angels game to go Over on Monday. Even after a 2-1 loss Sunday, Kansas City has averaged 6.9 runs over its last seven games. The Over is 7-1-2 their L10 games. They had a seven-game stretch of scoring at least five runs before losing Saturday and Sunday. However, the biggest news out of Kansas City for this game is that one of their top prospects will be starting. Jackson Kowar dominated down at Triple-A Omaha, but this is the big leagues now and we expect him to give up some runs. The Angels are a really solid club offensively when they are at home. They put up 5.4 runs/game in Anaheim. Only three teams average more at home and two are Colorado and Toronto, both of whom play in hitter friendly parks. While we like Dylan Bundy to pick up his first win of the season today for the Angels, it is somewhat difficult to look past his 6.49 ERA. It’s going to take runs for the Angels to win this game and we think they’ll get them. One of Bundy’s better starts this year came against the Royals. So go with the Angels and the Over in Monday’s series opener. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels -151 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA ANGELS Coming off a 9-5 loss to Seattle on Sunday, look for the Angels to bounce back and take out the Royals on Monday. The Angels had won two in a row before losing Sunday’s game while the Royals have now lost two straight. However, the biggest news out of Kansas City for this game is that one of their top prospects will be starting. Jackson Kowar dominated down at Triple-A Omaha, but this is the big leagues now and we expect him to give up some runs. The Angels are a really solid club offensively when they are at home. They put up 5.4 runs/game in Anaheim. Only three teams average more at home and two are Colorado and Toronto, both of whom play in hitter friendly parks. Dylan Bundy is winless and has the bad ERA we talked about in the Over writeup. But One of Bundy’s better starts this year came against the Royals. It’s telling how the money line has moved this morning. It’s going to take some runs for the Angels to win this game, but we think they get them and they’ll win while the game also goes OVER. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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06-07-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER This is Miami’s second trip to Fenway Park in the last 11 days. The first one did not go well as they lost both games. That started a free fall as the Marlins wound up losing eight in a row, a streak that didn’t end until yesterday’s 3-1 win in Pittsburgh. However, this time they may be catching the Red Sox in a favorable spot. Boston went 3-0 over the weekend at Yankee Stadium and that’s a high that will be difficult to come down from. The previous two games between these teams also both stayed Under. The final scores were 5-2 and 3-1. The Marlins lack of offense was odd considering they get to play with a DH. Expect more runs from them the second time around at Fenway. Nick Pivetta, despite owning a 9-2 team start record, has not exactly been a dominant starter for Boston. The Over is 5-1 in his six home starts and his ERA in his last three overall is 5.29. We don’t think the Red Sox will have much difficulty scoring runs either as they are putting up 5.2/game at Fenway. They averaged six per game over the weekend against Yankees pitching. Pablo Lopez, who starts Monday for Miami, has twice allowed six runs in a start this year. Both times were on the road. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-06-21 | Mets v. Padres -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SAN DIEGO San Diego took the first two games of the series, but had no answers for Jacob deGrom on Saturday. That 4-0 loss was fine by us as we took the Under. But the Mets obviously can’t have deGrom pitch every day and the bottom line here is they are facing one of the top teams in baseball. The Padres allow just 3.4 runs per game, #1 in the league. They allow just 2.8 runs per game at home. There’s one team that allows fewer runs per game at home and it’s the best. But this game is in San Diego. The Padres are 20-11 at home this year. The Mets are 13-18 on the road. San Diego lost its final two games in May and first two here in June. Other than that four-game losing streak, there’s been just one other time since April 22nd when they dropped back to back games. All of those losses were on the road too. Look for Chris Paddack to bounce back today after a poor start at Wrigley Field. Paddack had allowed no more than one run in four consecutive starts before giving up five to the Cubs last weekend. Marcus Stroman has been good for the Mets, but we don’t see him getting much support from one of the NL’s weakest offenses. The Padres simply have more firepower at the plate and can be trusted when not going against deGrom. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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06-05-21 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 6 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER Jacob deGrom is pitching Saturday night for the Mets and even though he’s facing San Diego, we’ve got a very low total on our hands here. We’ll still go Under. deGrom has a 0.71 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP. There has been one time in eight starts that he gave up more than one run and the three he allowed that day (at Colorado) were all unearned. So that’s just four earned runs he’s given up in 2021. But deGrom is not the only reason we like this game to go Under. San Diego will be sending Joe Musgrove to the mound. In addition to throwing the franchise’s first ever no-hitter back on April 9th at Texas, Musgrove has given San Diego a 2.43 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. His numbers over the last three starts are even better than deGrom’s. The Padres only give up 2.8 runs/game at home. That coupled with the best pitcher in baseball make this an easy call on the Under. Expect very few runs to be scored tonight. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-05-21 | Dodgers -120 v. Braves | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA DODGERS The last two times the Dodgers have taken the field, they’ve won for us. On Wednesday, they were our *10* Game of the Week. We laid the -1.5 (run line), thinking it wouldn’t be a problem and sure enough they beat St. Louis 14-3. With them now on the road, the price was much cheaper on Friday, so we grabbed them again and this time they beat the Braves 9-5. Despite Clayton Kershaw being on the mound tonight, the price is still pretty cheap and we can’t understand why. The Dodgers have the top run differential in baseball right now at +87. They are superior to the Braves in all facets. Kershaw, who is off a rare bad outing, should definitely bounce back here. He is unbeaten in 11 career starts vs. Atlanta in the regular season, going 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA. The Braves not only have a losing overall record this season, they have a losing record at home. While 3-0 in Charlie Morton’s past three starts (Morton starts tonight), none of those opponents were the Dodgers. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-05-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -175 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON +1.5 (RUN LINE) The Nationals captured last night’s series opener 2-1. Because of that, we like them +1.5 (run line) on Saturday. The Phillies’ 17-3 win over the Reds on Wednesday is looking like a total outlier as the club has scored no more than three runs in any other of its last eight games. Washington has won three of its last four ball games, all of them coming on the division road. Joe Ross starts on Saturday. He gave up only three hits in his last start and while it ended up being a losing effort, it was the sixth time in seven starts where Ross allowed five hits or less. Ross is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA all-time vs. the Phillies, who had just six hits in last night’s game. With the exception of yesterday, all the recent putrid offensive efforts by Philadelphia had been on the road. But they only average 4.2 runs/game at home. Spencer Howard is starting for them today and has had issues with a drop in velocity through the first three outings of 2021. Howard hasn’t gone more than four innings yet and the Phillies bullpen has been poor. Play on WASHINGTON +1.5 AAA |
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06-04-21 | Dodgers -127 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the DODGERS The Dodgers have the edge coming into this series as they had Thursday off while Atlanta did not. The Braves played in the afternoon yesterday, wrapping up a four-game series with Washington and they won 5-1. But they are still two games below .500 and not looking like the same team that was up three games to one in last year’s NLCS vs. the Dodgers. Los Angeles has stumbled in a bit in recent days as well. They are just 3-5 their last eight games and in third place in the West. But just as they were last October, they are a much better ballclub than Atlanta. The Dodgers’ run differential is +83, which is the best in baseball. They were our Game of the Week on Wednesday when they crushed the Cardinals 14-3. Urias gets the start tonight and he has a 0.66 WHIP in five road starts. That’s enough to counteract that Atlanta’s Anderson has a 5-0 team start record at home. Going back to 2019, LA is 31-12 playing with a day off. Urias was 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in last year’s LCS. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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06-03-21 | Mariners v. Angels -145 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA Angels We just played against Seattle two days ago. It was the right play as they lost the game (to Oakland) 12-6. Then they lost again to the A’s last night, 6-0. So that’s back to back six run losses for a team that had previously won five in a row. But we told you this team has been pretty lucky so far with a 5-0 record in extra inning games. Now they are hitting the road for the first time in over a week. The road has not been kind to Seattle the previous three seasons. Their record in away games is 53-82 in that time. The Mariners have the lowest team batting average in either league (.208) and also rank last in on base percentage and OPS. Thursday’s starting pitcher (Justus Sheffield) is 0-3 on the road with a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. The Angels have won three of four and had Wednesday off. In three previous starts vs. Seattle, Griffin Canning has a 1.47 ERA. That’s a lot better than Sheffield’s three career starts vs. LA where his ERA is 6.59. Just not a fan of this Seattle team right now. Play on LA Angels AAA |
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06-02-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 St. Louis pulled off an upset, winning 3-2 last night here at Dodgers Stadium. But the idea of them winning two in a row seems remote. The Dodgers, paced by an offense that scores 5.2 runs/game and a pitching staff that allows only 3.9, should still be considered the best team in baseball. They have scored 72 more runs than they have allowed through 55 games. The only two teams with better run differentials this year are the Padres and White Sox. The Cardinals are seven games over .500 and chasing the Cubs in the Central. But they have scored exactly one more run than they’ve allowed. The gap in the two teams’ run differentials is significant to us in handicapping this matchup. So is the fact that Dodgers starter Walker Buehler is 3-0 in his 10 starts with a 2.66 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He probably deserves better than a 6-4 team start record. His ERA is 0.90 his last three starts as he’s allowed just three runs, one unearned, in 20 innings. There have been only two starts this year where Buehler gave up more than two runs and every start has gone at least six innings. Carlos Martinez did carry a no-hitter into the 7th inning in his last start. But he was facing Arizona. Dodgers are 53-24 L77 if they scored two or less runs in the last game. Play LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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06-01-21 | A's -155 v. Mariners | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND The A’s lost to the Mariners 6-5 on Monday. But they should get back in the win column tonight behind Chris Bassitt. The teams went 10 innings on Memorial Day with Seattle scoring twice in the bottom of the 10th to improve to 5-0 in extras this year. They can’t keep being THAT lucky. Yesterday’s win was the 5th in a row for the Mariners, but the previous four all came at the expense of the last place Rangers. Oakland had more hits yesterday. They are 4-0 in Bassitt’s last four starts and this is the guy they want on the hill in this situation. Not only did he throw a complete game shutout last Thursday, but he has a 6-0 team start record on the road. After losing his first two starts, Oakland is 8-1 in his last nine. Seattle goes with Gonzales, who isn’t bad, but he spent the last month on the disabled list. He could very well come out rusty. Oakland was 3 for 14 when they had runners in scoring position yesterday. They should do better than that today and look for them to snap a five-game homerless streak. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-01-21 | Angels v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Some fascinating trends to consider when playing the total in this Angels-Giants game today. The Angels have gone Under in five straight games. They could only manage one run in yesterday’s loss to the Giants. Tuesday’s starter Heaney is 7-0 Over his last seven starts, but neither his WHIP or ERA are all that terrible. Starting for the Giants will be Alex Wood and the Under is 4-0 his last four starts. The final scores of those four games were: 3-1, 4-1, 1-2 and 3-4. So no more than seven runs in any of them. There were seven total runs scored in yesterday’s game, six of them by San Francisco. The Angels don’t have Mike Trout (injured) and can’t use the designated hitter in this series. So their offense is severely weakened right now. Ohtani is relegated to being a pinch-hitter. Visiting teams are scoring just 3.3 runs/game in San Fran this year. So as long as the Giants offense doesn’t go off, and we don’t think it will, this game is staying Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-31-21 | Red Sox v. Astros +104 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 104 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON After taking a couple of unlucky extra inning losses from the Padres, Houston bounced back with a 7-4 win on Sunday. Now they’ll host Boston. The Red Sox also just got done hosting a National League team. Their game on Sunday got postponed but they did win each of the previous two days vs. Miami. But when analyzing Monday’s opener, what we see are two starting pitchers trending in opposite directions. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has a 7.80 ERA and 1.87 WHIP his last three times out. All three outings have ended in defeat. Rodriguez has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts. Then you have Jose Urquidy for Houston. He has a 1.02 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in his last three starts. Those three decisions have all gone the Astros’ way. We look for the trends to continue today as Houston should win a second straight at home. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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05-30-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -175 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -175 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA DODGERS After sweeping the Giants last weekend and taking the opener of this series, 4-3 on Thursday, the Dodgers have all of a sudden dropped two in a row. We expect them to get back to their winning ways Sunday with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Kershaw had a rough season debut in Coors Field, but since then has an 8-2 team start record and the Dodgers have won his last four starts. He’s allowed no more than three runs in eight of those 10 starts while pitching at least six innings in seven of them. His seven wins are tied for second most in the majors. In the past, Kershaw has been excellent against the Giants, delivering a 1.79 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. With a 5-0 WL record, Kevin Gausman seems like a worthy adversary here. But a string of seven consecutive starts without allowing more than one run is likely to end Sunday. Only one time so far this season has LA dropped three straight at home. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-29-21 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY |
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05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The first two games of this four game series have produced just five runs apiece. All five were produced by the home team (Seattle) in Thursday’s game while things were a little tighter last night. But Seattle still won 3-2, handing Texas its fourth straight loss. Look for the scoring to pick up Saturday though. Neither starter is all that impressive with Foltynewicz’s 1.64 WHIP on the road for the Rangers really sticking out. This is probably a good time to bet against Foltynewicz as he’s coming off his best start of 2021. He has yet to pitch two straight quality starts. A 7.43 ERA vs. Seattle (four appearances against them) is another bad sign. Seattle is starting to hit better after a comically bad start to the season. But they are 0-3 in Justin Dunn’s last three starts with the opposition averaging seven runs per game. These teams have combined to go 9-0 Over their L9 Saturday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-29-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox -152 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY |
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05-29-21 | Yankees -135 v. Tigers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the YANKEES The Tigers shocked the Yankees last night with a 3-2 win. The game went 10 innings and saw Robbie Grossman hit a walkoff 2-run HR to win the game for the home team. We don’t see the Yankees losing two in a row to this lowly team. Detroit looks to be a serious contender for “worst team in baseball” this season as they are last among American League teams in runs scored. When the Tigers traveled to NY at the end of April, they ended up losing all three games. Despite winning yesterday, they were outhit 11 to 7. The Yankees did not get a single hit with runners in scoring position (0 for 10) and left 12 men on base in the game. Giancarlo Stanton was the biggest offender as he went 0 for 5 with four strikeouts in his first game back from a quad injury. The Tigers are so inept they didn’t even notice when the Yankees' Gio Urshela headed to first after only three balls! Spencer Turbull did throw a no-hitter earlier this year for the Tigers, but overall his team start record is only 3-4. Yesterday was an aberration. The Yankees are simply a better team and Deivi Garcia shouldn’t have much trouble pitching them to victory Saturday. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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05-28-21 | Blue Jays -154 v. Indians | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto begins a three-game series in Cleveland Friday night. Free from their own division, the Blue Jays are hoping to turn things around at Progressive Field this weekend. While they did split Thursday’s doubleheader with the Yankees, the Jays have lost seven of their last nine games to fall to fourth in the American League East. Those nine games were against the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees, all of whom are ahead of them in the standings. The Indians (27-21) also have a better record than Toronto (25-24), but they play in a much weaker Central Division. Cleveland just finished a series with Detroit where they took three of four and they are now 19-11 in division games this season. But they are 8-10 in non-division games and that’s what this is. Hyun-Jin Ryu is on a solid run of starts for Toronto as he’s made three straight quality starts where he’s given up three runs in 20 ⅔ innings. We know that Eli Morgan is a heralded pitching prospect for Cleveland, but we do not fear him in his 1st big league start Friday. It’s telling that Toronto is such a favorite. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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05-27-21 | Indians -172 v. Tigers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND An obvious pitching mismatch here with Shane Bieber of the Indians facing a Tigers team that is last in the American League in runs scored. Detroit did win last night’s game 1-0, but that was only after losing six straight to the Tribe. Going back to the beginning of 2018, Detroit is just 9-31 head to head with Cleveland. That’s not good! The Indians are an impressive 16-7 following a shutout loss the past three seasons, including 4-0 in 2021. Now they hand the ball to Bieber, who has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any of his starts this season and he’s pitched 10 times. Cleveland is 7-3 in those 10 games, the last one being a 5-3 win against Minnesota on Saturday. In seven career starts against the Tigers, Bieber is 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA. One of those two losses actually came on Opening Day despite Bieber having 12 strikeouts and giving up only three runs over six innings. Detroit has scored just two runs in the last two games and is 7-16 in daytime starts this year. Matthew Boyd has a 3-6 career record against the Indians. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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05-26-21 | Dodgers -138 v. Astros | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -138 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD This will be just the ninth meeting between these teams since the now infamous 2017 World Series. The subsequent three Fall Classics have all involved either the Dodgers or Astros with LA losing the 2018 version, Houston losing in 2019 and then LA winning last season. Five of the last eight meetings have occurred since last summer and the Dodgers have won four of those. Though they lost that ‘17 WS, they are now considered the better team by just about everybody. Houston isn’t bad by any means and could very well end up winning the AL West again this year. But right now the Dodgers are on an 8-game win streak. Houston has lost four straight. It was 9-2 Dodgers on Tuesday even though they had just seven hits. The Astros are reeling, not just because of last night, but also they were swept in Texas over the weekend. Now they must face Trevor Bauer, whose 5-5 team start record is as misleading as it gets. Bauer has gone at least six innings in 9 of his 10 starts and he’s given up no more than two earned runs in nine straight. A 0.93 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over the last three starts is as good as it gets. Bauer is a perfect 8-0 with a 2.90 ERA in his career vs. Houston. Dodgers keep rolling. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-26-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -185 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -185 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 7* on the WHITE SOX Carlos Rodon has been excellent this season for Chicago, winning five of his seven starts with a 1.27 ERA and 0.797 WHIP. That he didn’t win the last one (start) is rather criminal as he pitched six scoreless frames and had 13 strikeouts. The White Sox have actually lost the last two times Rodon has pitched, but that’s okay as they’ve also beaten St. Louis two straight in this series. The Cardinals have put up a total of 10 runs in their last five games including only four vs. the White Sox. Rodon should certainly be able to handle them as the White Sox go for the sweep Wednesday afternoon. This season has seen St. Louis go 1-6 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. They’ll start John Gant today. Gant hasn’t been giving up a ton of runs, but what is curious is the fact his WHIP (1.63) is actually higher than his ERA (1.42) on the road. You almost never see that. For the year, his WHIP is 1.56, which really does not correspond with a 2.04 ERA. His last start, which came against last place Pittsburgh, was only the second time in eight tries Gant didn’t walk at least three batters. He’s walked at least five three times and has more walks than strikeouts his previous four starts. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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05-25-21 | Braves -105 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA In their previous series, Atlanta dropped the opener. They responded by bludgeoning the Pirates over the next three games, outscoring them 33-3. We had the Braves in two of those three wins, including 20-1 on Friday. As they move to face Boston on Tuesday, we like this series opener to go their way. It’s a bit telling that they’d be favored on the road against the team that leads the AL East. But let’s not forget the Braves are the ones favored to win the NL East this year. No team in baseball has hit more home runs this year than has Atlanta and 15 of the 78 came in the last series. The Red Sox are no slouches at the plate either, but be wary of Garrett Richards and his 7.10 ERA at Fenway. Richards also has a 2.131 WHIP in those three home starts. His work has improved in May, but Richards has also still walked seven batters in his last two starts. We’ll side with Charlie Morton, who is 6-1 in his career against Boston. The Braves are liable to snap a six-game losing streak in Interleague Play. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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05-25-21 | Reds v. Nationals -178 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -178 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON We like Max Scherzer and the Nationals to beat the Reds today. Scherzer has dominated Cincinnati the last five times he’s faced them, going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA. Just as impressive has been his recent form as it’s a 1.56 ERA and 0.87 WHIP from his last three starts. Washington is 4-0 when Scherzer starts at home and a 0.68 WHIP from the pitcher is obviously a big reason for that. Cincinnati hasn’t gotten much good pitching from anybody this year and the last time they sent out Tyler Mahle, he gave up seven runs in two innings. Mahle has faced the Nationals twice before and his ERA in those two starts is 12.15. Not only is it a significant pitching mismatch for the home team Tuesday, but they are also coming off a three-game sweep of Baltimore over the weekend. Cincinnati is 1-6 its last seven and giving up 7.1 runs per game in that stretch. They’ve been outscored 50-25 in those seven games. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |