Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-02-23 | Phillies v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* UNDER Phillies/Rangers (IL TOM) A great common sense play here. Philadelphia's starting pitching and bullpen has so far been terrible over the first two games of this series, losing 11-7 and 16-3 yesterday. The Phillies are without several of their top/key sluggers as well still for a few weeks. The Rangers line-up has exploded, but for this final IL game to start the season, I believe the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. The Phillies hand the ball to Bailey Falter, who was 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA last season. He'll be opposed by Martin Perez, who was 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA last year. Look for these quality starters to battle deep, and expect this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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04-02-23 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
10* UNDER Orioles/Red Sox. I am rushing a bit here this morning to get my analysis done, as I am about to catch a flight. Regardless, after the first two games of this series have flown well "over" the number, I'm expecting more of a "duel" here finally in the finale. The Orioles hand the ball to Cole Irvin, who was 9-13 with a 3.98 ERA in 30 starts for the A's last year. In nine career innints vs. Boston, he has no decisions and a 2.00 ERA. The home side counters with Tanner Houck, who allowed three earned runs or fewer in 31 of his 32 outings last year, including all four starts. The value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned in this one, so the play is the indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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04-01-23 | Tigers v. Rays -167 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Rays. Zach Eflin gets the nod here for Tampa. He was 3-5 with a 4.04 ERA in 20 games (13 starts) for Philly last year. I just can't trust Spencer Turnbull here for Detroit, who missed all of 2022 recovering from TJ surgery. Turnbull struggled with confidence during the Spring: "Definitely a little nervous," Turnbull said after his first assignment. "I felt like a baby deer out there, but it was good to be back out there." Lay the price with confidence, the play is Tampa! AAA Sports |
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04-01-23 | White Sox v. Astros -116 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
10* Astros (BLOOD-BATH) I feel like the White Sox and Lucas Giolito are getting far too much respect here on the road, and that swings the value to Jose Urquidy and the undervalued home side. Urquidy was 13-8 with a 2.94 ERA in 29 appearances last year. He took the off-season really seriously and he's back in the rotation for now. he's 1-0 with a minuscule 1.84 ERA in two career outings vs. the ChiSox. Giolito is coming off his second-straight 11-9 season, pitching to a pedestrian 4.90 ERA last year. He lost both starts vs. the Astros last season, getting shelled for 15 runs off 15 hits over eight innings. Urquidy is the correct call here in my opinion; lay the short price, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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03-31-23 | Guardians v. Mariners -155 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Mariners (ASSASSIN) Seattle could/should easily be a much bigger fav here. I don't ever usually "flip-flop" on a team, as I had a play on Shane Bieber and the Guardians yesterday, but MLB is the one sport that for sure needs to be looked at separately and on their own accord, because of the starting pitching aspect. With that in mind, I just think Seattle should in fact be a much larger fav here. Have you even heard of Hunter Gaddis? The only reason he's getting the start here is that Triston McKenzie is injured to start the season. Gaddis was 0-2 with an 18.41 ERA last year. Robbie Ray struggled with his new team to open up last year, but he finished strong with a 12-12, 3.71 ERA record. Note that he's 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in four career apperances vs. the Guradians, which includes three starts. I say Ray gets out to a fast start in 2023 in this favorable matchup; lay the price with confidence, the play is Seattle! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Guardians +105 v. Mariners | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
10* Guardians (ASSASSIN) The Guardians had the youngest line-up in MLB last year, but they have huge expectations this season and will be out to show that it was no fluke. Seattle also had a bounce back campaign, and expectations are also large in the Pacific Northwest this season. Of any AL team, I think the Mariners could take a big step back though, after taking a step forward last season. I think Bieber is the correct call here in this starting matchup (had a 2.88 ERA last year with 198 K's and finished 7th in Cy Young voting.) Cleveland forced New York to a Game 5 in the ALDS, and it's small ball approach counters the Mariners. I like Bieber here; the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Phillies v. Rangers -125 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
10* Rangers (INTERLEAGUE GOM) Of all the teams in the National League this year, I think the Phillies have one of the biggest potentials to take a big step back this year. A lot of things went right for Philadelphia at the end of last year, and I think it'll be difficult to duplicate that success again. But the only way the Rangers can go this season is "up." Especially with Jacob DeGrom on the hill. I like Aaron Nola and he had a bounce back season last year. He was also decent away from friendly confines. But in this opening day interleague matchup, I love DeGrom at this price, no matter what team he's playing for. Look for DeGrom to be the difference here and lay the short price; the play is Texas! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | 0-4 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
8* play Tigers runline. After an "off" year last year, Eduardo Rodriguez will be looking to bounce back after signing a big contract with the Tigers in 2021. Shane McClanahan was 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA last year, but then he got a late shoulder injury. He's 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts vs. the Tigers. Rodriguez was 5-5 with a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts last season. How long can the Rays keep maximizing their efforts with a smaller budget? I think Tampa is a bit overpriced here, but in a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I am going to lay the small price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is the Tigers on the run-line option! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
8* play on the OVER Braves/Nationals. This pick is based primarily around the fact that I expect the Braves to smash Corbin here. Corbin was 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and I say he's in for a rough start here vs. Atlanta. Max Fried gets the opening night nod for the Braves, and he was 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA last year. Note though, while he's 4-1 in games at Washington, his ERA balloons to an unsightly 5.70 in those contests (meaning that his team has provided him with ample support each time.) Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Giants +170 v. Yankees | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
8* play on the Giants. The Yankees are FINALLY poised to "get over the hump" this year and advance to the World Series right? Maybe. But maybe not. Everything went right for the Yanks over the first 2/3's of last year, before they started to fall off. Aaron Judge was named the Captain of the team after he signed a monster contract. Cole was 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA for the anks last year. He led the league with 257 K's, but he also had an AL-worst 33 home runs served up. He's 5-1 with a 3.15 ERA vs. the Giants. Logan Webb counters for the talented Giants though. He was 11-3 in 2021, and then 15-9 with a 2.90 ERA last season. He was 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA over his final five starts last year. Opening Day can see a lot of crazy things happen. I just think Webb has the very real potential to steal this game himself; the value here lies in the underdog in my opinion, so the play is the Giants! AAA Sports |
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11-05-22 | Phillies v. Astros OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Astros. Streaks and records come to an end at some point. Both of these starters has been exceptional up to this point, but now on the biggest stage, I'm expecting some minor regression from both. Zach Wheeler is 1-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.73 WHIP for the Phillies so far in the Playoffs, while his counterpart Framber Valdez has been even better at 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. I just think we're going to see a lot of aggressive offensive tactics from both sides here today, especially obviously from the Phillies. I say this O/U line is now just a bit TOO low. Look for these unbelievable offenses to finally crack these starters and look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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11-02-22 | Astros v. Phillies +1.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -172 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Phillies RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I think the Phillies offer great value here as an underdog at home. I GET that the Astros are a great team. They're experienced and filled with depth. The Phillies are filled with talent and they have their veteran ace on the hill to take care of business. These teams are evenly matched, but "momentum" is a very real, almost tangible factor in sports, and it's one in which I feel that the oddsmakers can at times have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. The Phillies have a clear home field advantage, and I expect them to, at the very least, keep Game 4 competitive throughout. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters and bullpens a "wash" at this point. In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Phillies (GOW) Philadelphia did what it set out to do over the first two games in Houston, and that was to earn a "split." The Phillies have enjoyed a home field advantage throughout the Playoffs, and I believe they'll ride the wave of emotion to another big victory here in Game 3 as well. The weather postponed yesterday's game and we have a new starter going for the home side. I say the overall situation favors the home side. Ranger Suarez goes for Philly, and he finished 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA in the regular season, and he's 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in the playoffs. Lance McCullers Jr. will go again for Houston, he was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA in the regular season and he's 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA in the playoffs. Philadelphia is 5-0 at home, and now the Astros are going to get a little taste of the craziness here at home; while I do think the outright is possible, I also believe we're getting unreal value here with the extra 1.5 runs of insurnace; the play is Philadelphia on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Phillies v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies on the runline in Game 1. While Game 1 flew well "over" the posted number of 6.5, I believe we'll see a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring "duel" here in Game 2. Zach Wheeler is 1-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.51 WHIP so far in the playoffs for the Phillies, while Framber Valdez is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA for the Astros. Terrible starts for both starters yesterday, but let's not assume that these two red-hot starters here on Saturday will follow suit. Expect these two "studs" to battle into the latter frames as each sides leans on their starter today, and look for this total to stay "under" the number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
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10-28-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 56 h 1 m | Show |
10* Phillies RUNLINE (WS GOY) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab Philadelphia on the runline option here in Game 1. This Game 1 has the "Any Given Sunday" sort of "feel" to it. The fact that the Astros are in the World Series isn't a shocker, but the Phillies path to this point has been unexpected. They had to fight to make the Wildcard, but since then they've looked unstoppable. Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor in sports (especially in the playoffs) and it's one in which I've always felt that the oddsmakers have had a hard time propertly quantifying into a line at times. And that's the case here in my opinion. Aaron Nola has been great on the road all year and he eners with a 2-1, 3.12 ERA playoff record for the Phillies, while Justin Verlander is 1-0 with a 6.30 ERA for the Astros. Verlander got crushed in his last start, while Nola has been solid throughout. Give me the red hot Wheeler and the upstart Phillies to, at the very least, earn the ATS cover on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Padres v. Phillies -134 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) With a chance to close out this series and head to the World Series, I like Zach Wheeler and the Phillies to dig deep here and deliver the goods. Yu Darvish is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in the playoffs, while Wheeler is 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA. "Very excited. Obviously been pitching on the road, but I'm very excited to pitch here in front of these fans," Wheeler said. "They're happy, they're hungry, and they're excited. So it's going to be a lot of fun." Honestly, these starters are evenly matched, but I'll give the slight nod to Wheeler because of the home field advantage. And right now during the playoffs, that's going to be the difference-maker today. This crowd is going to be electric and I expect Philadelphia to ride the wave of emotion; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Padres v. Phillies -105 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* Phillies (BLOOD-BATH) Momentum is a very real, almost "tangible" factor in sports, and that's especially true in the playoffs. I often find that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying this factor into their process, and that's DEFINITELY the case here in Game 4 in my professional opinion. Despite Bailey Falter having not thrown since October 5th, I still think he has an advantage here over his counterpart Mike Clevinger. Falter went 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA in the regular season. He tossed one scoreless inning vs. the Astros back on October 5th. Clevinger was 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA during the regular seaosn and he's 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in the playoffs (gave up six hits and five runs over two innings to the Dodgers in his only start.) Even Bob Melvin has his doubts: "We'll see how it goes, take it batter to batter," Melvin said of his starting pitcher tonight. A great price on the surging home side here, so lay the short juice, because the play is indeed on the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies +100 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
8* PHILLIES (BLOOD-BATH) I had a play on Philadelphia in Game 1, but I passed in Game 2. For Game 3, I'm back on Philly. The Padres evened the series at 1-1 with an 8-5 win in Game 2. Philadelphia actually had a four-run lead in Game 2, but wound up losing. I'd call these starting pitchers a "wash." The Padres hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, who is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in the postseason, while Ranger Suarez is 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA for the Phillies. In his only start against the Friars this year Suarez gave up just two runs over eight innings and struck out ten. I like Suarez at home and I believe the Phillies will rally at home after the Game 2 loss. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-18-22 | Phillies +116 v. Padres | Top | 2-0 | Win | 116 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Phillies (NLCS GOY) These teams are similar in many regards, but I think the Phillies offer great value here as a small underdog. Zach Wheeler is 0-1 with a 2.19 ERA so far in the playoffs. He was 12-7 witha 2.82 ERA in the regular season. The Padres' Yu Darvish is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in the post-season and he went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Both pitchers have had plenty of success against their opponent today in the past. Philadelphia's improved bullpen play, combined with their impressive offense in the postseason makes the visitors the correct call here in Game 1 in my opinion; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Braves v. Phillies +113 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 113 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies yesterday in their 9-1 victory. Momentum is a very real, almost "tangible" factor in sports. And that's definitely the case in the playoffs. I've often found that oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying that factor into their process, and that's definitely the case here in my opinion. Charlie Morton finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA for the Braves, while Noah Syndergaard was 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA. Syndergaard pitched one scoreless inning in relief in Game 2 in ATL and he's 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in six career playoff appearances. Morton is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in playoff elimination games. However, that was then and this is now. Morton gave up 18 hits and ten runs over his final three regular-season starts. Look for Syndergaard and the Phillies to ride the wave of emotion at home to another series victory! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | Braves v. Phillies -115 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* NLDS GAME OF YEAR on the Phillies. Philadelphia accomplished what it set out to do in Atlanta, and that was to earn a split. This is Philadelphia's first home game so far during the playoffs, having to win two straight in St. Louis to advance. The Phillies look solid and I say they bounce back after their 3-0 loss in Game 2 (note that the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.) The home side goes with Aaron Nola, who finished 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA this season. He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going seven scoreless vs. the Cards in the Wildcard: "We can't wait for it," Nola said of Game 3. "It's going to be electric. It's something special." The Braves could be going with Charlie Morton, who finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA, or Spencer Strider, who finished 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA. Whoever they go with, I give the big nod to a confident Nola at home. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is Philly! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Mariners v. Astros -147 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS (SPECIAL) Houston took the first game by a score of 8-7. The Mariners allowed five runs over the 8th and 9th inning to lose by 1. They put in Robbie Ray to close out Game 1 and he served up a three run home run instead. As good as Luis Castillo has been for Seattle this season, and in their Wild Card win over the Jays, I believe he and the visiting side are in over their heads now in this game, and in this series. The Mariners had the Astros on the ropes and would have been in the drivers seat, but the meltdown over the final two innings is going to be a massive mental hurdle which I just don't see this team being able to get over quickly enough. And that's the window of opportunity and momentum that this No. 1 AL leading Houston team needs. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. I'm grabbing HOUSTON! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER (NLDS TOY) Yesterday's total flew "over" the number, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Wednesday. The Padres look to bounce back and hand the ball to Yu Darvish, who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in the playoffs so far. He was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Darvish faces his old team with a chip on his shoulder. In four starts against them this year he went 1-2 with a 2.50 ERA spanning 25 innings. The home side counters with Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA in the regular season. Over two starts this year vs. the Friars he went 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. Look for these two stud starters to battle deep and expect this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SUPER TOTAL) I'm expecting some offensive fireworks here to open things up. Well, I think this total will eclipse this very low number anyways. The Padres managed to get by the Mets in three games and now they turn to Mike Clevingers, the fourth man in their rotation. Clevinger was 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, including just 4-4 with a 5.48 ERA on the road. It's difficult to find any flaws in the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.88 ERA this season and who has a plethora of knowledge and experience to draw upon in this game and series. San Diego plated 16 runs vs. the Mets though, and I think they'll be able to get a few here in Game 1 as well. This number is a little low in my estimation, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think that Logan Gilbert and the Mariners have much more than just a "puncher's chance" in Game 1 of this ALDS. The Wild Card teams have to blow through the top of their rotation, and then face the ace of their respective opponent in Game 1. Fortunately for the Mariners, they took care of business in two games. Sure, they'd rather have Luis Castillo going here in Game 1, but you can't front on Logan Gilbert, who finished 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA this year. Now the good thing for Gilbert and the Mariners here as well, is that he was "lights out" on the road, going 8-1 with a 3.17 ERA. Clearly it won't be cake walk facing Justin Verlander, who was 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA. It's obviously impossible to say anything negative at all about Verlander, so I won't even bother. But the thing here is, I believe that Gilbert can match his veteran counterpart inning for inning to start with, and in a scenario like that, the value definitely swings to this hungry underdog. And with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, I love how this sets up for the Mariners on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* UNDER Padres/Mets (NL TOW) The first two games of this series have flown "over" the posted number, but I expect the finale to be a much tighter, lower-scoring "duel" once it's all said and done. The Padres go with Joe Musgrove, who 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA overall and who was 7-3 with a 3.03 ERA on the road. He'll be opposed by the Mets' Chris Bassitt, who finished 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA overall and who was 6-6 with a 2.96 ERA at home. Funny enough, each has been rocked by their respective opponent in the past. Bassitt is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in three career starts vs. San Diego, while Musgrove is 1-5 with a 5.83 ERA in six games vs. New York. But that's a case of that was then, and this is now. These starters enter on top form and I expect them to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Rays +102 v. Guardians | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
10* RAYS (ASSASSIN) I like Tyler Glasnow and the Rays to bounce back from yesterday's tight 2-1 loss. Tampa's now lost six straight games, but I say that streak of futility finally ends here in the Ray's most important game of the season. Tyler Glasnow was impressive in two starts for Tampa after returning from Tommy John surgery, allowing one run, four hits, two walks and striking out ten over 6 2/3's innings of work. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 2.12 ERA in three career starts vs. the Guardians. The home side counters with Triston McKenzie, who finished 11-1 with a 2.96 ERA this season. He owns a 2.25 ERA in two previous starts vs. Tampa. Experience matters at this moment though and the Rays have a way of defying the metrics. The Guardians may win this series, but I expect it to go to the full three games; the play is Tampa! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Phillies -102 v. Cardinals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
8* PHILLIES (BLOCKBUSTER) The Cardinals knocked the Phillies out of the Playoffs in Game 5 of the NLDS by a score of 1-0 back in 2011 and Philadelphia hasn't been back to the postseason since. Until now that is. The old saying that "revenge is a dish best served cold" could not be more apt in this three-game series in my opinion. It's all hands on deck for Philadelphia as it tries to pull off the minor upset here on the road. Zach Wheeler finished 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA for the Phillies. He's 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA in six career starts vs. the Cards. Miles Mikolas was going to get the call for the Cards, but now Jose Quintana will. He's 6-7 with a 2.93 ERA. He's 0-1 with a 2.90 ERA in seven career starts vs. Philadelphia. But Philadelphia has all the motivation it needs here and it has the big hitters in the line-up to get the job done. And that's what I expect here in Game 1; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
10* OVER Rays/Guardians (AL TOW) We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head here with Shane McClanahan getting the start for the Rays and Shane Bieber getting the nod for the Guardians. The oddsmakers want us to believe that these starters will battle deep into this one, and then these competent bullpens will take over. Tampa averaged 4.11 RPG, while Cleveland averaged 4.31. I'm not buying into this super low total though, despite the level of talent between these starting pitchers. I expect each of these sides to hit their seasonal offensive average and that means that the correct call in Game 1 is indeed on the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-04-22 | Phillies v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 130 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* ASTROS RUNLINE (IL GOW) The Phillies clinched their first playoff spot in over ten years with their 3-0 win last night and I'm expecting an immediate letdown here. The Astros have already clinched and have home field advantage until the World Series, but they'll be anxious to get back on track here after last night's loss. I really like Phillies' starter Ranger Suarez, who is 10-6 with a 3.37 ERA, but I really like the Astros' Justin Verlander even more. Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.80 ERA and is the front runner for the AL Cy Young award. This game now means nothing to Philadelphia, but it sure means a lot to Verlander, who will try to cap off his brilliant campaign with one last brilliant performance. I expect Houston to not only win this game, but to do so by a sizeable margin; the play is Houston on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Rays +1.5 v. Astros | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
8* RAYS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Yes, the Rays just clinched their fourth straight playoff appearance in yesterday's 7-3 win, but they are still trying to run down home-field advantage in the wild-card round. Even in defeat, the Astros clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the Yankees loss on Friday. I say the "letdown" here doesn't come from the Rays, but rather from the Astros, who previously had won nine straight. Shane McClanahan is 12-7 with a 2.51 ERA for the Rays, while Christian Javier is 10-9 with a 2.65 ERA for the Astros. I expect a tight, competitive battle here, and while I do think an outright upset could happen, the best value in my opinion lies in laying the price for the visitors on the runline option; the play is Tampa on the runline! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Mets v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* BRAVES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) For a number of different reasons, I believe the home side is well worth the price of admission here, as I'll lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a critical series, as it will determine the NL East winner. I don't think that you can count out the Braves' experience in this moment. Home field advantage is also another big factor working in ATL's favor. These pitchers are essentially a "wash" as well, which definitely swings the value in favor of the home side. Max Scherzer is 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA for the Mets, while Kyle Wright is 20-5 with a 3.18 ERA for the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the Braves on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Phillies v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Cubs (NL TOY) The Phillies are desperate to snap a four-game slide. They're coming off back-to-back losses here in Chicago, falling 2-1 and 4-2. Suffice it to say I'm expecting some fireworks here this afternoon at the plate finally (note that Philly has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge B2B road losses against an opponent.) Ranger Suarez is 10-5 with a 3.38 ERA for Phillies, while Javier Assad is 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA for the Cubs. "We have to get going," Philadelphia slugger Bryce Harper said last night. "We can't keep saying that, right? We have to actually do it. As a team, as a club, we've got to be better." Both starters have been decent, but this is just a case of each being in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. The overall situation points to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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09-28-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on Arizona yesterday on the runline and while that play came up short in the Astros 10-2 victory, I look for the visitors to bounce back here with a much better effor with their "ace" on the mound. Arizona will try to play spoiler here, as a win here tonight will clinch home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs for the Astros. Justin Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.82 ERA for the Astros, while Zac Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.46 ERA for the Diamondbacks. Each enters on top form and I'm expecting a classic "duel" here into the deep innings. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-27-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (IL GOW) The Astros are still looking to post the best record in the American League, but I think they'll have their hands full in this interleague matchup. Houston needs just three more wins to lock up home field advantage, but Zach Davies and the D-Backs will look to postpone those arrangements for a bit longer. Davies is 2-4 with a 4.03 ERA. He's posted 11 straight no-decisions. He's made one start against the Astros though and looked good, conceding two runs off four hits with seven K's over eight innings. Arizon has dropped eight of its last 11, but four of those were one run setbacks. Lance McCullers Jr. is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA for Houston, but he's just 1-1 with a 6.86 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona (and a pedestrian 4-4 wit a 3.85 ERA in all interleague contests.) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Guardians v. Rangers +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
9* RANGERS RUNLINE (HAMMER BEATDOWN) I think Glenn Otto and the Rangers have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Texas had won two straight over the Angels, before a 6-3 setback here in the opener of this one. And after five straight victories, I expect a small letdown here finally from the visiting side. The Guardians let their guard down here after moving eight games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. Cal Quantrill is 13-5 with a 3.56 ERA for the Guardians, while Otto is 6-9 with a 4.88 ERA for the Rangers. With the majority of the public money on Cleveland, I'm going contrarian here. That said, the value on the runline option is just too good to turn down. In a contest that I see being extremely competitive, I'm grabbing the home side on the runline AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 11-10 | Win | 102 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Baltimore won't be rolling over here. It's in the hunt for a playoff wildcard. It comes in on top form as well, winning three straight. That includes the firt two games of this series, winning 2-0 and 6-0. Sure the Astros would like to get back into the win column, but this is a crucial series for the home side. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the hungry Orioles on the runline option. The Orioles have also used just one reliever over the last two games. Mike Baumann is 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA for the Orioles, while Framber Valdez is 16-5 with a 2.57 ERA for the Astros. I expect another great performance from the Orioles' pitching staff and while I do think another outright is possible, my official call is to grab Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Mets v. A's +1.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I like the A's to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to earn the solid ATS cover on the runline option. The Mets had their five-game win streak come to an end in a 6-0 loss at Milwaukee in their most recent action, while Oakland is coming off a 9-5 loss at Seattle last night. The Mets see Chiss Bassitt toe the slab, and he's 14-8 with a 3.32 ERA, while Cole Irvin, who is 9-11 with a 3.79 ERA, counters for the the A's. Bassitt has been great f late, but I think he'll struggle against his former team here. The A's have still won three of their last five. Irvin has a chance, with a victory today, to match his career-best for wins in a season, so he has plenty of motivation here today a well. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbin the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. White Sox | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
8* TIGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Detroit comes to Chicago after losing two of three at Baltimore, while Chicago enters having just been swept at home by Cleveland in three straight. The Tigers will look to keep playing spoiler here and in a contest that I envision being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. Detroit goes with Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed a massive off-season contract and with the Tigers and who is 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA. He'll be opposed by Lucas Giolito, who is a poor 10-9 with a ballooned 5.07 ERA. He's a pedestrian 6-6 with a 4.46 ERA in 18 career appearances vs. the Tigers. Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in seven appearances vs. the White Sox. I think these guys are much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is Detroit on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-22-22 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Padres | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
9* Cardinals RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Two teams jockeying for positioning go head-to-head here on Thursday night in this NL matchup, but after losing three straight, I like the Cardinals to dig deep here and bounce back finally. That includes two straight losses to open this series, falling 5-0 and 1-0. Note that St. Louis is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge back-to-back losses against an opponent. After winning five straight, I think the Padres finally have a letdown here. Joe Musgrove gets the call for the Padres and he's 10-7 with a 3.16 ERA. He'll be going up against the Cards' Jack Flaherty, who is just 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA. Note that St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols, who is stuck on 698 home runs, is 3 for 9 with a homer off Musgrove (Joe's just 2-7 with a 5.53 ERA in ten lifetime starts vs. the Cards.) Flaherty is 1-0 with a 1.10 ERA in 16 1/3 career frames vs. the Friars. This is his fourth start of the season and I expect him to be sharp. While an outright win isn't out of the question, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is St. Louis on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-22-22 | Twins -125 v. Royals | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
8* TWINS (SPECIAL) A great situational play here. The Royals have been relishing playing the role of spoiler of late, but I think the Twins dig deep here finally on Thursday afternoon and break their three-game slide. Minnesota has in fact lost six of its last seven. It's lost two straight here to the Royals, and note that the Twins are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Minnesota's playoff hopes are dwindling, as it remains nine games back. The Twins turn to Josh Winder in this spot and he's 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA, while the Royals counter with Jonathan Heasley, who is 3-8 with a 5.09 ERA. Both starter have looked decent at times and struggled in others. The overall situation and the above stats though make the Twins (especially at this price!), the correct call in this matchup Thursday; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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09-21-22 | Blue Jays v. Phillies -110 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) I had the Phillies yesterday and that pick unfortunately came up short in the Jays 18-11 blowout win. Philadelphia comes in super desperate here though to snap its four-game slide, as it looks to get back into the Wildcard hunt. The Phillies haven't been in the playoffs since 2011. The Jays have won three of their last four, but with upcoming series starting at Tampa Bay tomorrow, followed by home series vs. New York and Boston, I expect the visiting side to come in complacent and get caught looking ahead. The Phillies clearly don't have that luxury. The starters are evenly matched. Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.45 ERA) gets the call for Toronto, while Zach Wheeler (11-7, 3.07) counters for the Phillies. It would be easy to write a convincing argument for either starter to win here. I just think that the oddsmakers are not propertly taking into account all of the other situational factors here. I think the value here is for sure on Philadelphia AAA Sports |
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09-20-22 | Blue Jays v. Phillies +113 | Top | 18-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (NON-CONF. GOM) The Jays took two of three from Baltimore over the weekend, but lost the finale 5-4. Toronto has done well on the road this year, but I still don't think it should be favored in this spot. Philadelphia comes in desperate to snap a four-game slide. I think they do that here in this interleague matchup. The Blue Jays hand the ball to Ross Stripling, who is 8-4 with a 2.94 ERA, while the home side counters with Kyle Gibson, who is 10-6 with a 4.45 ERA. Gibson is 5-1 with a 4.14 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Jays, so he'll be feeling confident. Stripling is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career appreances vs. the Jays. These guys are evenly matched. Note that Philly is 7-2 in its last nine after three or more straight losses in a row. This one MEANS so much more to Philadelphia and I think it has plenty of different factors working in its favor today. Great value here on Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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09-19-22 | Mets v. Brewers -105 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* BREWERS (GAME OF WEEK) The Brewer are in the hunt for a Wildcard and they catch Max Scherzer at the right time. He's 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA, but he's been out since September 4th with an oblique issue. The veteran has had plenty of succcess against the Brewers, and very quickly he'll be "up to speed," but the door is open here for Corbin Burnes and the home side. Burnes is 10-7 with a 2.96 ERA. He was last year's NL Cy Young winner. In four career starts against the Mets he's 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. This game MEANS MORE to Milwaukee. I think it'll be decided late, or even in extras, so because of that, I'll recommend laying the short price on the home side in this one! AAA Sports |
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09-19-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Orioles | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
8* TIGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Tigers lost two of three to the White Sox over the weekend, including yesterday's matchup by a score of 11-5. I think the visiting side bounces back here though and gives the Orioles a run for their money. The Orioles have their hopes set on one of the Wildcards, but the Tigers will look to play spoiler here. Baltimore has not been playing well, having won just five of its past 13. Miguel Cabrera has been activated for the Tigers as well, so that's a big boost for Detroit's offense. Tyler Wells is 7-3 with a 3.93 ERA for the Orioles. Baltimore has lost four of his last five trips to the hill. Tyler Alexander counters for Detroit, and he's 3-10 with a 5.35 ERA. Alexander has fared well against Baltimore in two career starts and I think he can match the erratic Wells right now. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Dodgers v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10* GIANTS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Giants had won four of five before the Dodgers came to town. They now play with double revenge after dropping the first two games of this series by score of 5-0 and 7-2. I'm expecting a much more competitive battle here though in the finale of this three-game set. It's an important game for San Francisco, which hits the road for seven straight after this. LA on the other hand gets caught looking ahead to seven straight at home starting tomorrow. I believe these starters to be a "wash." Andrew Heaney is 3-2 with a 2.84 ERA for the Dodgers (sample size is still small), while Alex Cobb is 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA for the Giants. In a situation like that, the value swings here to the undervalued home underdog. And while I do think an outright win is possible, the official call will be to grab the Giants on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I think the Orioles have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright. However, the runline option at this price is just too good to turn down in the end in my opinion. Toronto has an 8-7 series lead, but Baltimore will be looking to even things out here. The home side sends Alek Manoah (14-7, 2.43 ERA) to the hill, while the visitors counter with Dean Kremer (7-5, 3.34.) Manoah has enjoyed success against the Orioles, while Kremer has struggled against the Jays. But that was then, and this is now. I look for Kremer to step up here and match his counterpart in this important game. The Orioles are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two straight losses against an opponent as well. The play is Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Phillies -105 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES MONEYLINE (ASSASSIN) Philadelphia will be looking to get back into the winner's circle after two straight losses. It had won five in a row before falling 5-3 to Miami in the finale of a three-game series, before then falling here by a score of 7-2 in the opener of this one. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola, who is 9-11 with a 3.31 ERA and tiny 0.97 WHIP. While just 4-7 on the road, he sports a highly respectabel 2.86 ERA away from friendly confines. He'll be opposed by the volatile Jake Odorizzi, who is 5-5 with a 4.15 ERA this year. He's a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA at home this season. This game simply MEANS MORE to Philadelphia and I think it also clearly has the superior starter on the mound; those factors tip the scales in favor of the Phillies this afternoon! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 3-6 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) While I do think an outright upset is very possible, in the end I believe that the runline option offers the better value here. Baltimore lost the opener here 6-3 yesterday, but I think it'll bounce back here on Saturday. The Jays had to use seevn pitchers on Friday night to earn the victory. These teams are now 7-7 in their season series. The home side goes with Jose Berrios, who is 10-5 with a 5.07 ERA, while the visitors counter with Kyle Bradish, who is 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA. Berrios has had more success vs. the Orioles this year than Bradish has vs. the Jays, but these guys are a "wash" for all intents and purposes. I don't really trust either. With the Jays' bullpen tired, I think the door is open for the Orioles here. The play is Baltimore on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Mariners v. Angels +1.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
8* ANGELS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Angels have lost four in a row, but I think they step up here and play spoiler to the Mariners on Friday night. Seattle has won three of its last four, most recently splitting a two-game series with the Padres. The Mariners are currently tied with Toronto for the top wild card spot. Michael Lorenzen is 6-6 with a 4.70 ERA for the Angels, and while he's had difficulties with the Mariners in the past, note that he's 4-2 with a 2.83 ERA at home this season. Ray has been exceptional after a poor start to his 2022 campaign, entering 12-9 with a 3.56 ERA. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I say the correct call is to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Phillies have been playing really well of late. They have won seven of their last ten. They just had their five game win streak snapped in yesterday's 5-3 loss at Miami, but they got caught looking ahead to this series. The Braves haven't been playing particularly well of late, having lost four of their last five, including a 4-1 setback at San Francisco in their most recent action. Max Fried gets the nod for the home side and he's 13-6 with a 2.50 ERA this season. He's 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA in 16 career games against Philadelphia, including 0-0 with a 3.75 ERA in three starts this season. "I feel as confident as ever," interim Phillies manager Rob Thomson assessed after last night's setback. "We're playing good. We're battling. There's a lot of energy in the dugout. Everyone is pulling for each other." Ranger Suarez is 9-5 with a 3.62 ERA for the Phillies. He's 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (AL Central GOM) I love how this sets up for Daniel Lynch and the Royals, and while I do think an outright victory is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Minnesota has taken the first two games of this series, but with a four-game series starting at AL Central leading Cleveland tomorrow, I believe the home side gets caught looking ahead to that contest. It's a big time revenge series, as Cleveland swept the Twins in Minnesota in the series previous to this one. It's a great situational play. Dylan Bundy is 8-7 with a 4.68 ERA for Minnesota, while Lynch is 5-10 with a 5.14 ERA for the Royals. I call these guys a "wash." Bundy is 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Royals, while Lynch is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in four starts vs. the Twins this season. Minnesota first baseman Luis Arraez's availability questionable heading in, and the Twins may very well elect to sit him out here with Cleveland on deck. The stage is set for an outright upset, but the official call will be to grab the Royals on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Phillies v. Marlins +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
8* MARLINS RUNLINE (DOMINATION) The Phillies have now won five straight after sweeping the Nationals, and then taking the first two games of this series. I believe Philly has a small letdown here finally as it gets caught looking ahead to its series starting at Atlanta tomorrow, followed by the Jays and then another three-game series at home against the Braves. This is a "trap" for Philadelphia. Noah Syndergaard is 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA for the Phillies, while Pablo Lopez is 8-10 with a 4.04 ERA. Syndergaard is 7-3 with a 3.56 ERA at home this year, but just 2-6 with a 5.06 ERA on the road. Lopez is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA in seven career starts vs. Philadelphia. While I do think the outright is possible, the value here is grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-14-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* RED SOX RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Boston's 2 game win streak came to an end in last night's 7-6 loss here in extra innings to the Yanks. I believe we'll see a similar very tight and competitive affair here on Wednesday as well. The Yanks have won 3 straight and I expect some complacency here. Brayan Bello is 1-5 with a with a 5.79 ERA overall this year for the Red Sox, but he's thrown into the 6th inning in his past 2 starts and he owns a 3.55 ERA over his last six outings. Note that 14 Red Sox/Yankees games this year have been decided by one run! Nestor Cortes Jr. is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA for the Yanks. He faced the Red Sox on July 8th and was shelled for 4 runs over 3 innigns off 8 hits. An outright upset is possible, but the official call will be to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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09-13-22 | Astros v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* AL GOY Tigers RUNLINE. Houston has won 7 of its last 10, but after yesterday's 7-0 win here, I believe it'll have its hands full on Tuesday. Detroit has lost 6 of its last 10 and been shutout in 2 straight (the Tigers though are 7-3 in their L10 in trying to avenge a shutout home loss against an opponent.) I believe these starters are much more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Houston goes with Hunter Brown (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who looked great in his MLB debut against the Rangers on Sept. 5th, allowing three hits over six scoreless. I believe regression is now in order here in his second start. And I like Drew Hutchinson here, who is 2-7 with a 4.08 ERA. He's 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA in three starts vs. the Astros, but I expect him to, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning. The outright is possible, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing Detroit on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-12-22 | Pirates v. Reds -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* NL CENTRAL GOY ON CINCINNATI This is a Pittsburgh team that the Reds love to host. They are 21-7 the last 28 meetings in Cincinnati. Minor has been good lately. He has a 2.60 ERA his last 3 starts. The Reds won 7-1 the last time he pitched. They've won 3 of his last 4 and they won 9-5 his last start against the Pirates. Wilson has not been good lately and he is 2-7 with a 6.88 ERA as a starter. Pittsburgh can't hit and is 17-30 against left-handed starters. Reds win! AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* TOY ON CARDINALS/PIRATES UNDER Flaherty allowed 1 run last start. The game finished with 6 runs. Brubaker allowed 2 runs last start. The game finished with 7 runs. Brubaker faced the Cardinals in June. The final score was 3-1. Early reports show that the wind is likely to be blowing in. Understand that the Pirates score fewer runs than any other National League team. As a team, they hit .219. Go with the Under! AAA Sports |
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09-09-22 | Angels v. Astros -210 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
6* BLOOD BATH ON HOUSTON Lorenzen last started a game on July 1. That was against Houston and he gave up 8 runs. Final score was 8-1. Now he has to face the Astros again. Poor guy. McCullers Jr. has a 2.08 ERA in four starts. The Astros beat the Angels 4-2 in his last start. Astros are 49-22 as home favorites of 175 to 250 last 3 seasons. Angels 6-17 as road dogs of 175 to 250. Houston will be too much for the Angels in this one. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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09-08-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -128 | 6-5 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
8* DOMINATOR ON PHILADELPHIA The Marlins are really bad right now. You can't win if you don't score. In losing nine straight, they've scored only 14 runs. Price is reasonable because of Miami having its ace on the mound. Even Alcantara has been bad of late though. Last home start saw Gibson deliver 7 shutout innings. Phillies are now 8-1 the past nine meetings with Miami. Head to the closet and grab your brooms, Philadelphia fans. Your club is about to complete the sweep! AAA Sports |
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09-07-22 | Reds v. Cubs -140 | 7-1 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
*8 ASSASSIN ON CHICAGO Cubbies got back in the win column yesterday. Cincinnati got back to losing. Reds are 29-51 last 80 off a loss. Minor's team record is 3-13. He's 3-10 with a 5.98 ERA. Backed by a bad Reds bullpen. Assad has a 0.00 ERA in two starts. The Cubs beat the Cardinals 2-0 when he started at Wrigley. Cubs are 4-1 last 5 meetings with the Reds here and 5-1 last six meetings combined. They'll get it done again tonight. Cubs Win. Cubs Win! AAA Sports |
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09-07-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
10* GETAWAY DAY TOW ON SF/LA UNDER Cobb and Kershaw had a high-scoring game against each other in July. Both starters were strong last start though and runs will be harder to come by in this afternoon's rematch. Kershaw allowed 1 run, on only 1 hit, last start. Cobb allowed 0 runs, on only 3 hits, in his most recent start. That's consecutive shutouts for Cobb and he has now permitted 3 or fewer earned runs in 7 straight. Under was 5-2 in those games. Go with the Under! AAA Sports |
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09-06-22 | Mets -207 v. Pirates | 2-8 | Loss | -207 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
6* Bloodbath on the NY Mets The Mets, who lost Saturday and Sunday, have been great at responding to losses. They are 36-14 last 50 times they were off a defeat. Walker has faced the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves in his last 3 starts. Three elite teams. Now, he takes on Pittsburgh. Big class drop. Walker has a 10-3 record and a 6-2 record at home. Last three starts, Keller is 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA and a WHIP approaching two. With the Mets 17-5 their last 22, when playing with a day off, this one turns into a blood-bath! AAA Sports |
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09-05-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* NL West TOY on SF/LA Under If you like quality pitching, you should enjoy this game. Webb's last four starts all were unders. Scores of 2-0, 5-0, 6-1 and 4-3. He allowed 1 run last start and it was unearned. Heaney has a 1.05 ERA in five home starts. In his last three starts he has 28 strikeouts in 15.2 innings. Twelve starts in a row for Heaney where he has allowed 3 or less earned runs. Make it 5 straight unders for Webb! AAA Sports |
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09-04-22 | Yankees -120 v. Rays | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
10* A.L. East GOY on New York Yankees Armstrong is a reliever getting a spot start. He's got a 4.72 ERA and a 1.41 W-H-I-P. Montas allowed 0 runs in 7 innings last time he faced Tampa. In two starts against the Rays this season, he has permitted 1 earned run in 13.3 innings. The Yankees will pound Armstrong and they will provide Montas with ample run support. Just when the Rays think they are getting close, NY reminds them who's boss. Let's go Yankees! AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | Twins v. White Sox -125 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* AL Central GOY on Chicago White Sox Chicago rallied for an important win yesterday. Winners of three straight, the Sox have their ace to the mound. Cease is a Cy Young candidate. Mahle is returning from injury. Still two games back of the Twins and three back of the Guardians, the Sox badly need this game. The Twins are 27-34 away from Minnesota. Sox won 11-0 last time Cease faced the Twins. Chicago makes it four straight! AAA Sports |
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09-02-22 | Astros -155 v. Angels | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
10* AL WEST GOY on Houston Astros The Astros are relentless. They've got a 30-11 record against left-handers. Detmers, 1.842 WHIP his last three, is going to be in trouble. Houston averages 4.5 runs per game. LA averages 3.8. As a team, the Angels hit only .227. McCullers Jr. has a 1.69 ERA in his three starts. Eleven straight starts since last year have resulted in McCullers Jr giving up 3 runs or less. Big bullpen edge for the Astros. Houston makes it four straight! AAA Sports |
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09-01-22 | Royals v. White Sox -205 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
6* Smackdown on Chicago White Sox This price is higher than we normally like to go but the matchup warrants it. Chicago got it's win yesterday and now will make it two in a row. Before his last outing, Cueto had been a model of consistency. Mengden will be making his first start this season. He's mostly worked out of the bullpen the past few years and therefore likely won't be around long. KC relievers have a 4.94 ERA. The edges add up to a big victory. AAA Sports |
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08-31-22 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
10* DODGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Mets are coming off back-to-back losses. They fell 1-0 to Colorado after taking the first 2 games over the Rockies, before then falling 4-3 here in yesterday's series opener vs. the Dodgers. In what I expect to be another very tight and competitive affair, one that could very likely be decided in extras, I'm going to suggest laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Obviously we have two of the World's best pithers going head-to-head here. Tyler Anderson is 13-2 with a 2.69 ERA for the Dodgers, while Jacob deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA for the Mets. This is one of those "Any Given Sunday" type of scenarios. It would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these starters to come out on top, and that for all intents and purposes, makes them a "wash." The Mets stayed 3 games ahead of Atlanta in the NL East after the Braves lost 3-2 to the Rockies yesterday, while the Dodgers maintain a 19.5-games lead over everyone. As I said off the top, this one is going to be a classic "duel." Because of that, the play here is LA on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-30-22 | Rays v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (IL GOM) In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend grabbing the home side on the runline option. Miami has lost 5 straight in this series, so it won't be lacking for motivation today. Miami sees Jesus Luzardo toe the slab, and he's 3-5 with a 3.34 ERA, while the visitors counter with SHane McClanahan, who is 11-5 with a 2.20 ERA. Luzardo enters on top form though and I believe that momentum gets carried over here, as he's posted 3 quality starts out of his past 4 games and has posted a 2.67 ERA over 5 August starts. McClanahan has had plenty of success against the Fish in the past, but who hasn't? The bottom line here is that I look for Luzardo to match McClanahan inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued hungry home underedog. While I do think an outright win is a possibility, the official call will be to grab the Marlins on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-29-22 | Dodgers v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 115 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (GAME OF WEEK) The Dodgers have taken 2 of 3 here in Miami so far, but with a 3-game series at the Mets starting tomorrow night, I think they get caught "looking ahead." They come in complacent with their ace on the mound Tony Gonsolin, who continues to defy the odds and enters with a 16-1 record with a 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. The home side counters with Pablo Lopez, who is 8-8 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.16 WHIP (he's been great in all "night" contests this season as well, going 8-4 with a 2.66 ERA in all such instances.) Lopez is also 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers. Look for Lopez to match Gonsolin inning for inning and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-28-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Cubs have been following an interesting pattern of late, and I expect it to continue here. Chicago has been trading wins and losses over its last 7 games, and coming off the 7-0 loss here yesterday, I believe it has a good chance at continuing that run. That said, in a contest that I expect to be much more competitive that yesterday's game, I'm going to lay this reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Chicago is actually 5-1 in its last 6 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss of 6 or more runs as well. The Cubs hand the ball to Adrian Sampson (1-4, 4.04 ERA), who is coming off a shaky outing, but who did well against Milwaukee when he faced it on July 6th, going 6 innins and allowing 1 run and striking out 5 in the victory. I expect him to bounce back here though and raise the level of his game to match his counterpart Eric Lauer (9-5, 3.44.) He's 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Cubs this season, but I expect Sampson to match him inning for inning. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-27-22 | Yankees v. A's +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* ATHLETICS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Yanks enter complacent now again after 5 straight victories. That includes a 13-4 win in the opener of this 4-game series here in Oakland, followed by yesterday's much tighter 3-2 victory last night. I'm fully expecting Saturday's contest to follow suit from Friday's highly competitive affair. Domingo German is 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA for the Yanks. So far German though has been considerably better in front of the home town crowd, going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in New York, compared to 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA everywhere else. The home side counters with Adam Oller, who is just 2-6 with a 6.41 ERA. Oller is coming off a decent outing though and I expect him to build off that, as he went 6 innings, allowing 3 runs in what turned out to be an unfrotunate no-decision vs. the Marlins. I think New York is over-priced here and as I said off the top, I expect another really tight and competitive game here in Oakland as the A's try to snap New York's 5-game win skein; the play is Oakland on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-26-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Angels won't be in the playoffs, but they'll be eager to snap a 6-game skid. Most recently they lost 4 straight in Tampa. The Jays look poised for a letdown here after winning 7 of their last 10, including 3 in a row. The Blue Jays won in 10 innings for a 2nd game in a row as well, adding to the letdown scenario here vs. the lowly, albeit hungry Angels. Mitch White is 1-3 with a 3.63 ERA for the Jays, while Reid Detmers is 4-4 with a 3.66 ERA for the Angels. This is the first time Detmers has faced Toronto, but White faced the Angels last year and was shelled for 6 runs over 1 inning. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is LA on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-25-22 | Twins +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* TWINS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Twins on the runline last night, and while that play unforuntately came up a run short, I believe the stage is now set for a possible outright upset here for the visiting side. That said, the value is just too good to turn down ultimately for the Twins on the runline option in my opinion. The Twins turn to Chris Archer, who is 2-6 with a 4.02 ERA. Minnesota is 0-5 vs. Houston this year, getting outscored 30-8. Archer though is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 9 career outings vs. the Astros, including going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA in 5 career starts in Houston. Luis Garcia is 10-8 with a 4.09 ERA and while he's had plenty of success against the Twins in the past, the bottom line here is that I expect Archer to match him inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued, but extremely hungry road underdog; the play is Minnesota on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-24-22 | Twins +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10* BLOOD-BATH Twins RUNLINE. The hungry Twins are poised for an outright victory here, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. The Twins have now lost 4 in a row after droopping 3 straight at home to Texas, and then falling 4-2 here in yesterday's series opener (Minnesota though is 7-3 in its last 10 after 3 or more straight losses). Dylan Bundy is 7-4 with a 4.60 ERA for the Twins. He most recently allowed 1 run over 6 innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rangers. That's back-to-back quality outings for Bundy and I expect him to carry that momentum over here and down the stretch. He'll be opposed by Framber Valdez, who is 12-4 with a 2.72 ERA. Look for Bundy to continue to elevate the level of his play and to match Valdez inning for inning. In a scenario like that, the value swings to the hugry undervalued underdog. The play here though is Minnesota on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-23-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Angels have lost 6 of their last 7, including 3 straight (note that LA is 7-2 in its last 9 after 3 or more consecutive losses), which includes a 2-1 setback here in yesterday's 4-game series opener. I'm expecting another really tight game here as well, and while the outright is of course possible, the runline option is just too good to turn down in the end in my opinion. Tampa can't afford to take the foot off the gas in the AL East race, but after 3 straight victories and winning 6 of its last 7, I believe it comes out a bit complacent here. The starters are pretty evenly matched as well. Corey Kluber is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA for the Rays, but he's a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.97 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Halos. The visitors counter with Jose Suarez, who is 4-5 with a 4.12 ERA. Note that over 4 starts since the all star game he's 2-1 with a 1.19 ERA spanning 22 2/3's frames of work. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the Angels on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-22-22 | Cardinals v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (GOW) Chicago had its 5 game win streak come to an end yesterday's in its 6-2 loss at home to Milwaukee. I think the Cubs can bounce back here though and, at the very least, keep this one close enough for the comfortable "runline" cover. And after 7 straight victories, I believe that the Cardinals finally have a small letdown here. St. Louis sees Jordan Montgomery toe the slabe, and he's 3-3 with a 3.69 ERA. The home side counters with Drew Smyly, who is 5-6 with a 3.67 ERA. For all intents and purposes, I believe these starters are a "wash," which swings the value here to the undervalued home underdog. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the Cubs on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-21-22 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10* TIGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think the Tigers will build off their 4-3 win over the Angels here yesterday. Neither team is going to be in the playoffs. Yes this is Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Angels, but I still think that LA is overpriced here on the road. Eduardo Rodriguez returns to Detroit today after time off due to injury, and then something personal. He's just 1-3 with a 4.38 ERA, but he threw 3 minor league stints and gave up one run while striking out 11 over 6 innings on Tuesday: "It was difficult to step away from what I've been through my whole career, my teammates and everything," Rodriguez said. "But for me, family is always first. My second family is my teammates and this organization. They've given me the opportunity to be here, and I am back here now with my second family. Mentally, physically, I feel good to be back here." Ohtani is 10-7 with a 2.69 ERA. He's been a consistent bright spot for the Angels on both sides of the plate, but I'm expecting Rodriguez to match his counterpart inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I've always felt that the value then swings to the undervalued underdog. And that's Rodriguez and the Tigers here today. While the outright is possible, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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08-20-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Texas has dropped 3 of its past 4, including yesterday's contest by a score of 2-1. The Rangers catch the Twins at a good time here though in my opinion and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'll recommend grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance for the reasonable price. After sweeping the Royals in 3 games and earning the win yesterday, all signs point to a predictable letdown here for the home side. Glenn Otto is 5-8 with a 4.96 ERA for the Rangers, while Chris Archer is 2-6 with a 4.15 ERA for the Twins. For all intents and purposes, I'll call these starters a "wash." With the majority of the public money on the home side here, the value has now swung the other way for this undervalued underdog. And while I do think the outright win is possible, the official call is to grab Texas on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-19-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (NON-DIV GOY) The Royals have now lost 4 straight after yesterday's 7-1 setback here in Tampa Bay. The Royals have been struggling to score, but I expect them to, at the very least, dig deep and keep this one interesting late. This is a 4 game series. The Rays have hit a "vanilla" part of their schedule, with upcoming series against the Angels and Red Sox up next. Regardless, I believe they'll have their hands full here today with Royals' ace Brady Singer, who is 6-4 with a 3.29 ERA. He'll be opposed by Shane McClanahan, who is 11-5 with a 2.28 ERA. Singer faced the Rays on July 23rd and allowed 2 runs over 6 innings while also striking out 12. Over his last 32 innings of work Singer has posted a 1.67 ERA. McClanhan has lost 2 of his last 3 outing and seen his ERA rise from 1.71 from pre-All Star break, to 2.28 post. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-18-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on Arizona last night on the runline, and in the end I didn't even need the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in the Diamondbacks 3-2 victory. In another contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras this time, I'll once again recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in your back pocket. The loss snapped a 5-game win streak for the Giants, and another letdown wouldn't be suprising in this spot in my opinion. These starters are evenly matched. Zach Gallen (8-2, 2.94 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors, while Logan Webb (11-5, 3.00) counters for the home side. For all intents and purposes, let's call these guys a "wash." With an 8-game road trip starting in Colorado, expect San Francisco to get caught looking ahead here as well. This is a "trap" for the Giants. And I do think it's worth sprinkling a little on the money line, but the official call will be to grab Arizona on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-17-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Arizona will, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in my estimation, so in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option. Arizona has fallen 6-1 and 2-1 over the first 2 games of this series. San Francisco desperately needs to make up ground, but Arizona isn't going to roll over here. Zach Davies is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA for Arizona, while Carlos Rodon is 11-6 with a 2.95 ERA for the Giants. After B2B walk off wins, expect San Francisco to come back down to Earth tonight. I think Davies matches Rodon inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued underdog. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab Arizona on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-17-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
9* BREWERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Dodgers have now lost 2 of their last 3 after last night's 5-4, 10-inning loss here. I think they'll have another letdown here as well. Milwaukee needs to string some wins together and in what I anticipate to be another very tight affair tonight, I'm recommeding grabbing Milwaukee on the runline option here. Tony Gonsolin is 14-1 with a 2.24 ERA for the Dodgers. He's been awesome. He'll be opposed by Milwaukee's ace Eric Lauer, who is 8-4 with a 3.64 ERA. Lauer though is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA at home. Look for Lauer and the hungry Brewers to, at the very least, keep this one comfortable enough to cover with the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-17-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rangers | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
8* ATHLETICS (RUNLINE) The Athletics finally snapped a 9 game losing streak with a 5-1 win over the Rangers yesterday and I think they'll, at the very least, keep today's game close enough to earn the ATS (runline) cover. The Rangers 3 game win streak came to an end yesterday and I believe they'll have a letdown here as well. Adam Oller is 1-5 with a 7.26 ERA for Oakland. Oller has faced some stiff opponents since returning to the rotatin, including facing the Astros 3 times over his last 5 games. Oller has struggled, but I still don't think that Rangers' rookie Cole Ragans should be favored by this much at this point, despite his opposition. Ragans is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA, most recently giving up 5 runs over 4 innings in a 7-3 loss to the Astros on Thursday. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab Oakland on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-16-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (AL GOM) The Royals beat the Dodgers 4-0, breaking LA's 12-game win streak, but then fell 4-2 in the opener here at Minnesota yesterday. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest grabbing the hungry visiting side on the "runline" option. The Twins lost 3 of 3 to the Angels before yesterday's victory. Zack Greinke gets the start for the Royals, and he's 4-7 with a 4.29 ERA. He'll be opposed by Sonny Gray, who is 6-3 with a 3.33 ERA. Greinke has had difficulties with the Twins in the past, but he's been sharp of late and I expect the veteran to match Gray inning for inning. In a scenario like that, the value swings here to the undervalued underdog. The play is Kansas City on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-15-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* BREWERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Dodgers 12-game win streak came to an end last night in the Royals' 4-0 victory in Kansas City. I had a play on KC on the "runline" in that one. I think this is a good situational play, as another letdown here after their first loss in ages is imminent in my estimation. The Brewers on the other hand won't be lacking for motivation here after loing 2 of 3 at St. Louis over the weekend, including a 6-3 setback last night. Julio Urias toes the slab for the visitors. He's been great, going 12-6 with a 2.49 ERA so far. The home side counters with Freddy Peralta, who is 4-2 with a 4.37 ERA. Peralta is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers. Urias is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA in 6 career outings vs. the Brewers. I believe though that Peralta can match Urias inning for innings and in a scenario like that, I feel the value now swings to this undervalued hungry home underdog. While I do think the outright win is a possibility, my official call will be to grab Milwaukee on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-14-22 | Twins v. Angels +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
9* ANGELS RUNLINE (BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) I think that Tucker Davidson can match his counterpart Chris Archer inning for inning tonight, and in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the undervalued home underdog. LA has quietly been playing better of late, winning 4 of its last 5, including yesterday's contest here vs. the Twins by a score of 5-3. Minnesota is just 27-29 on the road now. Davidson is 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA, while Archer is 2-5 with a 4.02 ERA. Archer is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA over his last 5 starts. Davidson gave up 6 runs in his debut last Sunday to a hot Seattle team, but I expect him to settle down here at home: "If you look at my walk rate in Triple-A, it's the lowest of my career," Davidson said. "I just have to translate it up here. Maybe not be so fine and trust my stuff. More of a 'here it is, hit it,' and then good things will happen. I think the big thing is getting ahead with strike-one and putting the throttle down when I can." The official call in this one is the Angels on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-14-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-8 | Win | 107 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
10* PIRATES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight. That's important to note here though, as the Pirates have gone 6-2 in their last 8 after 3 or more straight losses in a row. They've dropped the first 2 games of this series, including yesterday's contest by a score of 2-0 (note that the Bucs are also 7-3 in their last 10 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.) Alex Wood toes the slab for the home side. He's been hit or miss this season, as he's 8-9 with a 4.17 ERA. The visitors counter with Zach Thompson, who is 3-9 with a 5.08 ERA. Thompson hasn't won in 9 starts, so he won't be lacking for motivation here. I think Thompson can match Wood inning for inning today. For all the reasons listed above, I expect the momentum in this series to shift; the play is Pittsburgh on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-14-22 | A's +1.5 v. Astros | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
8* ATHLETICS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I like the A's to dip deep, play with pride, and, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Oakland has lost seven straight now. It's off the 8-0 loss here yesterday, but note that it's 7-3 in its last 10 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss of 5 or more runs. Houston gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today, with a 4-game series at the White Sox starting tomorrow, followed by a 3-game set at Atlanta. Cole Irvin has been a bright spot for the A's this year, as he's 6-9 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. I expect him to match Christian Javier, who is 6-8 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. The outright upset is possible, but the value lies in the visiting side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-13-22 | Mariners v. Rangers +1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
6* RANGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Texas has lost 8 of its last 10, including yesterday's series opener here with Seattle by a score of 6-2, but I believe the conditions are now right for a much more competitive battle on Saturday. Seattle comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won 7 of its last 10. After 3 straight victories here though, I'm expecting a letdown. Marco Gonzalez toes the slab for the visitors and he's 7-11 with a 3.98 ERA. He's just 2-6 with a 5.01 ERA on the road though. The home side counters with Dane Dunning, who is 2-6 with a 4.04 ERA. He's 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA on the road, but 2-1 with a 2.99 ERA at home. Look for home field to play a big advantage for Dunning here. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, the play here is to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance with the Rangers on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-13-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* RED SOX RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Yes, the Yankees are in desperate need of a victory here after losing 8 of their last 10 games, including the opener here yesterday by a score of 3-2 in exrta innings. New York though is still 71-52 and in the drivers seat in the AL East. Boston fans could care less about the Yanks' issues, as they enter at 56-58, and needing desperately to continue to string some wins together. These starting pitchers are evenly matched. Frankie Montas is 4-9 with a 3.18 ERA for the Yankees this year, while Karl Crawford is 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA for the Red Sox. Let's call these guys a "wash." The oddsmakers continue to give New York too much respect here though considering its form, and especially here on the road. I expect a similar type of game as what we saw on Friday, so let's lay the reasonable price for the Red Sox on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-11-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I played the Orioles on the "runline" last night in their 6-5 outright home victory over Toronto, and I expect them to carry that momentum over here. Boston has lost 4 straight and has many issues across the board. The Orioles 58-52 and I give them a BIG nod on the bump tonight. Dean Kremer is 4-3 with a 3.43 ERA for the Orioles, while Josh Winckowksi is just 5-5 with a 4.68 ERA for the Red Sox (he's just 3-3 with a ballooned 6.29 ERA in all home games as well.) The oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the very real momentum that Baltimore has created for itself right now and while I do think the outright win is possible, in the end let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Baltimore on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-11-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Phillies | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
8* MARLINS RUNLINE (ROUT) After dropping the first 2 games of this series, I like the Marlins to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Because of that, the call here will be to grab the visitors on the "runline" option. Yesterday the Fish fell 4-3, rallying for 3 runs in eighth inning to secure the victory. Edward Cabrera is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA for the Marlins. He most recently tossed 5 scoreless innings against the Cubs last Friday, walking 3 and striking out 8. Kyle Gibson is 7-4 with a 4.36 ERA for the Phillies. He's coming off a strong outing as well, allowing 1 run over 8 innings in a win over the Nationals. With Philadelphia looking ahead to a tough series starting at the Mets tomorrow night, I think the home side gets caught flat-footed here. While the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab the visitors on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-10-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* PIRATES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Arizona has taken the first 2 games of this series, but I'm expecting the Pirates to bounce back in the finale. Conversely, after 3 straight wins, I'm expecting a predictable "letdown" here from the Diamondbacks (note that Arizona is just 2-7 in its last 9 after 3 or more straight wins in a row.) More than anything though, I really do feel that this starting pitching matchup is more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to make us think. The visitors hand the ball to Mitch Keller, who is 3-8 with a 4.21 ERA. He's coming off a gem, allowing 1 run over 6 innings in a 1-0 loss to the Orioles on Friday. Keller has now posted a minuscule 1.74 ERA over his past 5 trips to the hill spanning 31 frames of work. The home side sees Madison Bumgarner toe the slab, and he's 6-10 with a 3.96 ERA. He's coming off a "dud," getting shelled for 5 runs off 10 hits over 5 innings vs. the Rockies on Firday. Look for Keller to be the difference here and while I do think an outright victory is possible, the official call will be to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-10-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Astros | 8-4 | Win | 118 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
8* RANGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) What Justin Verlander is doing this season is incredible. Regression is imminent though at some point, and today is the day in my estimation! It's impossible to find any faults in Verlander's game this year, as he's 15-3 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The Rangers went 2-2 against Cleveland over the weekend, but won the opener here 7-5 yesterday. The Rangers and Glenn Otto are going to hang tough again here on Wednesday as well. Otto is 4-8 with a 5.31 ERA. He's slowly been regaining his form since returning from COVID, and he's 0-1 with a 3.48 ERA in 2 starts vs. the Astros this year. Some minor regression from Verlander, combined with some minor improvement from Otto sees this one being decided late, or even in extras; and because of that, the play is indeed Texas on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-10-22 | Braves v. Red Sox +1.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
8* RED SOX RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) This is a mini 2-game interleague series. Off yesterday's 9-6 loss, I think that Boston will bounce back here and at the very least, earn the comfortable "cover" on the runline option. Kyle Wright is 13-5 with a 3.22 ERA for the Braves and while he went 4-0 in five starts in July with a 2.64 ERA, he got rocked in his first start in August for 6 runs off 7 hits over 6 innings in a 6-4 loss to the Mets on Thursday (matched a season high for runs, while allowing 4 home runs, the most he's ever conceded in a single start.) That doesn't bode well for Wright heading to Boston, as he's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Red Sox. Pivetta went 0-3 with a 9.38 ERA in 5 starts in July, but he looked a lot better in his first start in August, conceding 3 runs over 5 innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Thursday. I expect Wright and the Braves to bring the best out of Pivetta here at home, who will look to build off his last solid performance. The outright is possible, but great value here with the Red Sox on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-09-22 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* UNDER Rangers/Astros (ASSASSIN) What do you base your Over/Under picks on? Do you simply look at the offensive and defensive averages of each side, then make an educated guess based on the line, or do you delve a little deeper? From a situational stand-point, I think this one sets up super well for a lower-scoring "duel." Both teams have played A LOT recently, and each finally had the day off yesterday (the Astros had to play 19 games over 18 days, while the Rangers also played 18 consecutive games before having Monday off.) More than anything though, both these starting pitchers have been "on point' and enter on top form. The Rangers' Martin Perez is 9-2 with a 2.47 ERA this year. He's 2-0 with a 1.44 ERA over his last 4 starts and he's 1-0 with a 0.56 ERA in in two starts vs. the Astros this year. His counterpart Jose Urquidy is 10-4 with a 3.62 ERA this year overall and 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA over his last nine starts, and 4-0 with a 2.04 ERA in 6 career outings against Texas. No need to overthink this one; this one has "duel" written all over it, so the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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08-08-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (GOW) Once again I think the Blue Jays are getting too much respect on the road here. They went 2-2 in Minnesota over the weekend, but after yesterday's 3-2 victory, I think they'll struggle here vs. the surging Orioles. Baltimore had won five in a row before an 8-1 loss to Pittsburgh yesterday. The Orioles are 31-21 at home, while the Jays are 26-27 on the road. Jordan Lyles is 8-8 with a 4.40 ERA for the Orioles, while Yusei Kikuchi is 4-5 with a 4.86 ERA for the Jays. Each has struggled against his respective opponent today in the past, but note that Kikuchi is 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA on the road, compared to 4-2 with a 4.17 ERA at home. Lyles on the other hand is 5-6 with a 5.70 ERA on the road, and 3-2 witha 2.71 ERA at home. While I do think an outright win isn't out of the question, my official call will be to grab the hungry home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Blue Jays v. Twins +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
8* TWINS RUNLINE (SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) I had a play on Minnesota on the runline option last night and the Twins wouldn't even need the extra 1.5 runs in their outright 7-3 victory. This is the finale of the 4 game series, and the Twins have won the last 2 games and once again I believe they're not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers in this matchup. The Jays are good, but their achilles heel is their play on the road where they're a pedestrian 25-27. The Twins on the other hand are now 31-24 at home. Kevin Gausman is 8-8 with a 3.06 ERA for the Jays, while Chris Archer is 2-5 with a 4.05 ERA for Minnesota. Guasman is coming off his best start of the year, going 8 scoreless and striking out 10 in a win over the Rays. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here?! Note that he's 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA in 8 career starts vs. the Twins as well. Archer won't be lacking for motivation here, as he hasn't won in 4 starts. He's coming off a hard-luck no-decision vs. Detroit, allowing 2 runs over 5 innings while striking out 8. The outright win is possible here, but the official call will be to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Reds +1.5 v. Brewers | 4-2 | Win | 113 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
8* REDS RUNLINE (ANNIHILATION) The Brewers really need a win and they have their "ace" on the mound, but they're playing super poorly right now and I think they're way overpriced today. And that really does swing value here onto the Reds on the runline option. The Reds have won 4 of their last 6 after yesterday's 7-5 win here, while Milwaukee has now dropped 5 of its last 6. Graham Ashcraft is 5-2 with a 4.12 ERA for the Reds and he enters with a ton of confidence after his best start of his career, going 8 1/3's inning in a 2-1 win over the Marilns on Tuesday, allowing 0 runs off 5 hits, striking out 3 and walking none in the unfortunate no-decision. Corbin Burnes is 8-4 with a 2.49 ERA for the Brewers, but he comes in off a pedestrian outing, allowing 4 runs and 5 walks over 5 innings in a loss to the lowly Pirates on Tuesday. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going with the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |