Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-23-22 | VfL Wolfsburg v. RB Leipzig OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -135 | 42 h 1 m | Show |
9* Over Wolfsburg/RB Leipzig (9:30 AM ET): Coming off a 2-0 win last week over Stuttgart (my Game of the Week in the Bundesliga), Leipzig FINALLY has to feel like they’re ready to start moving up the table. That was their first away win of the campaign last week, so that’s a giant monkey off the back. But they are still just 7th in the table and in need of another win to (potentially) find themselves level with fourth place Hoffenheim. The fact Leipzig has a +13 YTD GD indicates that they will be a top four side by season’s end (they are already third in xPts), but don’t be surprised if they concede a goal (or two) on Sunday. Even as someone who had them, I had to admit Leipzig was lucky to keep a clean sheet last week as Stuttgart had numerous scoring chances that they failed to convert. A desperate Wolfsburg side comes to the Red Bull Arena this week and you can bet if given the opportunity, they will put a few in the net. Wolfsburg’s actual goal total of 17 is way off their expected goal total of 27.07. In Europe’s “Big 4” leagues, only La Liga’s Athletic Club has a larger discrepancy. What that tells me is Wolfsburg is due a few goals in the upcoming fixtures. Incredibly, Wolfsburg has not scored in any of their last three encounters. They are coming off a 0-0 draw with Hertha Berlin, which extended their winless run to 10 straight across all competitions, which goes back to November and includes a Champions League exit. Given their xG total and how Leipzig was lucky to keep a “clean sheet” last week, I’ve just got to think that Wolfsburg is due to score here. If they do, then the Over is all but assured as Leipzig has put up eight goals in three matches since returning from the Winter Break. 9* Over Wolfsburg/RB Leipzig |
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01-22-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Brentford OVER 2 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
7* Over Wolverhampton/Brentford (10:00 AM ET): It’s somewhat incredible just how low-scoring Wolves’ matches have been this Premier League campaign. Not only are they scoring less than one goal per match, they are also conceding fewer than one goal per match. The 32 total goals scored in Wolves’ matches this season is easily an EPL-low. The next fewest would be 43 from Burnley and they’ve played three fewer times. Moving forward, you’ve got to think we’re due for an uptick in scoring when the Wolves are on the pitch. Last time out may have been a sign as they scored three times in a win over Southampton. The Wolves enter Saturday six points back of the top four. So a win here could cut that deficit in half. They are facing Brentford, a newly promoted side for 2021/22 that got off to a good start, but has recently begun to fade. The Bees suffered a 3-1 defeat midweek to Manchester United. This leaves them down in 14th place in the table, still well clear of the drop zone, but also unlikely to make a serious run at a top half finish. Brentford actually has a higher number of xPts than Wolverhampton, but that’s not doing them any good right now. The Wolves’ xGA is 26.04, a massive difference from the actual number of goals (15) they’ve conceded this season. No side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has allowed a fewer number of goals relative to their xGA. It’s essentially the reverse of what I talked about with Levante in the other writeup. The Wolves are due to start conceding more as the season progresses. But they are also probably due to score more as well. Like I said earlier, last time out was perhaps a sign of things to come and now they face a Brentford side that has conceded a total of 10 goals in its last three Premier League matchups. 7* Over Wolverhampton/Brentford |
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01-22-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Hoffenheim UNDER 3.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -111 | 46 h 52 m | Show |
9* Under Borussia Dortmund/Hoffenheim (9:30 AM ET): Two of the top four in the Bundesliga meet here. Dortmund is now hot on the heels of Bayern Munich as they are only six points back of the top of the table. Last week, it was a 5-1 thrashing of Freiburg, but I don’t look for a repeat of that performance here. Not after BVB just suffered a humiliating defeat midweek in the DFB-Pokal to second tier side St. Pauli, 2-1. Hoffenheim was also ousted from that tournament, 4-1, at the hands of Freiburg. They are currently fourth in the German top flight with 31 points, only ahead of FC Union Berlin on goal differential. Dortmund’s 49 goals this season are second most in the Bundesliga, trailing only Bayern Munich. But xG says they’ve been lucky to score that many. This side’s expected goal total is just 38.62. Among Europe’s “Big 4” leagues, only Serie A’s Lazio has overperformed its expected goal total by a wider margin. So much of this side’s future depends on what Erling Haaland chooses to do next, but I can also say BVB was lucky to score five times in their last match as the metrics indicated it should have been a much tighter affair. Note that only 18 of Dortmund’s 49 goals this season have been scored on the road. Things had been looking good for Hoffenheim until the last week or so as they’ve dropped two straight competitions. Last time in the Bundesliga, they were beaten 2-1 by FC Union Berlin, a huge result as it leveled those two sides in fourth place. Huge for this fixture is the fact that Hoffenheim has conceded only nine times on home soil this season. That’s a big difference from the 20 times they’ve conceded on their travels. I expect a surprisingly low-scoring battle here. 9* Under Borussia Dortmund/Hoffenheim |
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01-22-22 | Cadiz CF v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
8* Under Cadiz/Levante (8:00 AM ET): The two bottom sides in La Liga meet on Saturday with the three available points being critical to each’s chances for survival for next season. Levante is in bigger trouble right now as they are at the foot of the table with only 11 points. Cadiz, off a 2-2 draw with Espanyol earlier in the week, has 15. But that’s still five adrift of safety. I really thought long and hard about taking Levante in this spot, as I think they’re better than Cadiz and have been really unlucky this season. But trusting a team that just picked up its first win of the season two weeks ago seems risky. What I do know is that Levante has been incredibly unfortunate to concede a league-high 41 goals this season. In terms of xGA (expected goals allowed), they are only at 30.92. Their gap in xGA and actual goals allowed is easily the largest in all of La Liga. In fact, it’s the largest difference of any side in Europe’s “Big 4” leagues! But Levante did just keep a “clean sheet” their last time on “the pitch,” beating Mallorca 2-0. Now they are set to face a Cadiz side that is tied for the second fewest number of goals scored in La Liga. I could see another clean sheet here for Levante. At the very most, they’ll concede just once. Cadiz is coming off a 2-2 draw with Espanyol, but that result included both sides scoring a goal in stoppage time. The expected goal total for the match was only 2.72, a big difference from the actual number of 4.0. That draw snapped Cadiz’s streak of eight consecutive matches scoring one goal or fewer. They hadn’t scored a single goal in three straight before Tuesday’s draw. Incredibly, Cadiz has gone five straight La Liga matches with an expected goal total below 1.0! A goalless draw is a real possibility here, or maybe a 1-0 Levante win. But I cannot see more than two combined goals scored. 8* Under Cadiz/Levante |
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01-21-22 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin UNDER 139.5 | Top | 86-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
8* Under Michigan State/Wisconsin (9:00 ET): I happen to think both of these teams are slightly overrated. Do they belong in the Top 25? Yes. But not top 15 and in the case of Wisconsin, definitely not top 10. Despite losing last night, Purdue remains the favorite in the Big 10. As for who is the second best team in the conference, I’d point to another team that is in action tonight, that being Illinois. But now to the game that’s taking place tonight. Wisconsin is on two separate seven-game streaks right now. Not only have they won seven in a row, all seven wins have gone Over the total. (They’ve also covered the spread in five straight). I think the O/U streak is the one more likely to be snapped tonight. While this O/U is in line with most recent games, the Badgers probably won’t shoot as well here as they did Tuesday at Northwestern (51.9%). They scored 41 points in each half. Michigan State hasn’t played since Saturday when they saw their nine-game win streak come to an end, 64-62 at the hands of Northwestern. The Spartans lost despite holding N’western to 34.8% shooting. It was the second straight game decided by two points for Sparty. Previously, they’d beaten Minnesota 71-69. They hold teams to just 65.6 PPG and 29% from behind the three-point arc. Wisconsin doesn’t turn the ball over much (fewest in the country!), but has also been LIVING at the free throw line, which may not continue. 8* Under Michigan State/Wisconsin |
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01-20-22 | Suns v. Mavs OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-101 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Mavericks (7:35 ET): Two hot teams meet in Dallas, on TNT, tonight. The Suns are looking to complete a perfect 5-0 road trip while the Mavs have won three straight at home and four in a row overall. While Dallas has been playing excellent defense of late, evident by the fact the Under has hit in 11 of their last 12 games including each of the last six, keeping Phoenix in check will be a tall order. Over their last three games, the league-leading Suns have won by an average of 19.7 points. Devin Booker is leading the charge by scoring 37.7 PPG in those L3 wins and he turned in a season-high 48 in the 121-107 win at San Antonio on Monday. Do note that Phoenix trailed going into the 4Q of that last game, but was able to hold the Spurs to just 16 points over the last 12 minutes. Don’t think they’re going to be able to do that again, although from the Suns’ perspective it may not matter if they continue scoring the way they have. They are averaging 112.5 PPG for the season. Dallas held Toronto to 38.5% shooting, including 8 of 32 from three-point range, in the last game. There’s virtually no shot they can keep the Suns in check to that degree. It's the combination of defensive efficiency and slow pace that has led to the recent rash of Unders for the Mavs, but eventually one of these games is going to go Over and I think they’ve got the right “dance partner” tonight. Dallas has also shot VERY poorly from three-point range in its last five games, which I feel is going to change. 10* Over Suns/Mavericks |
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01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 46.5 | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Steelers/Chiefs (8:15 ET): Of the six matchups on the NFL’s “Super” Wild Card Weekend, all but one features teams that met in the regular season. This is one of those as Kansas City drubbed Pittsburgh 36-10, three weeks ago, here at Arrowhead. It’s difficult for me to envision a subpar Steelers team that was outscored by 55 points in the regular season, winning here. But this is certainly a big number to lay in the playoffs. The Steelers’ defense should ensure that this rematch is at least a little closer than the original. But I’m not expecting much scoring by the road team either. Kansas City heads into the playoffs on a 5-0 Over run. But let’s not forget about the seven-week stretch of regular season games where they held six teams to 17 points or fewer. At home, the Chiefs’ defense is allowing just 17.1 PPG. I don’t see them really being threatened here by a Steelers’ offense that has been beyond anemic, particularly in the first halves of games this year. The Steelers are averaging just 6.7 PPG in the 1H this year. Put them on the road and that number drops to a near unfathomable 3.6 PPG! They can’t run (3.9 YPC) and barely average 20 PPG. In six of the last eight games, Pittsburgh has gained less than 315 total yards. Kansas City should feel pretty comfortable about their chances of winning here. Patrick Mahomes is 42-1 SU as the starter when the defense does NOT give up 27+ points. Clearly, I don’t see the Steelers scoring THAT many. But I do see this being lower scoring than the regular season game, which makes Under the call. The Chiefs’ offense actually put up fewer points at home (than on the road) this season and gained fewer yards, per game and per play. Five of the Steelers’ last six games did not exceed 46 points and four of those had 40 points or fewer. 10* Under Steelers/Chiefs |
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01-15-22 | Raiders v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
10* Under Raiders/Bengals (4:30 ET): When these teams met in the regular season, it was 32-13 Bengals, but that was a little bit misleading as both teams gained less than 300 total yards. I don’t see this rematch being higher scoring, so Under is a logical call here. It was only 13-6 going into the 4Q in Vegas back in Week 11. It was 16-13 with just over five minutes to go. After capping a 62-yard drive with a JaMar Chase TD, the Bengals piled on 10 more points due to two late Derek Carr interceptions. It was a somewhat misleading final. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow led the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. But he actually threw for a season-low 148 yards when he faced the Raiders. The Bengals’ offense had just one play of 20+ yards in that game and it was a Joe Mixon run. Burrow has been sacked a league-leading 51 times. The Raiders don’t send a ton of pressure, but as we saw last week against the Chargers, Maxx Crosby can certainly be a disrupting presence. I do think the Bengals will still win this game, however, and that’s mainly because I don’t expect a ton from a Las Vegas offense that is far too dependent on drawing PI calls to move the sticks. Even with a full overtime session last week, the Raiders still only gained 346 total yards. Even during their four-game win streak (four wins by a total of 12 points), their offense was just 18th in the league in yards per drive. Before last week, they had been held to 17 pts or less in five of the previous seven games. 10* Under Raiders/Bengals |
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01-14-22 | Suns v. Pacers OVER 219.5 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Pacers (7:05 ET): What a tough season it’s been for Indiana. They are 15-27 SU and have just one win (against Houston) since X-Mas. I don’t think the team has played all that poorly. They own a better YTD point differential than 7th place Charlotte, but have been doomed by an awful 1-10 record in games decided by three points or less. Things weren’t close on Wednesday though as the Pacers shot a season-worst 19.4% (7 of 36) from three-point range. Only one player (Justin Holliday) made more than one three in the 119-100 loss to the Celtics. Phoenix wasn’t much better offensively in its last game, though they did win 99-95 in Toronto, a game that had no fans present. All five Suns starters finished in double figures, but the reserves combined to score just 21 points. You’ve got to expect more than that here, right? The Suns average 111.8 PPG, but have been below that number each of their last three games. As is the case with Indiana, I’m expecting a bit of an offensive breakthrough by the road team in this Friday night matchup. The Pacers average 11 made three-pointers per game, so that’s an area where I expect them to improve quite a bit from the last time. The Suns held the Raptors to 21.6% from behind the arc, so it works both ways. Not only is Indiana set to improve, Phoenix is set to regress defensively. Indiana actually averages 111.5 PPG at home. But at the same time, I can’t see the Suns not improving their offensive numbers as well. I think both teams are reaching 110 points in this game. That means Over is the call. 10* Over Suns/Pacers |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 52.5 | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under Georgia/Alabama (8:00 ET): The SEC Championship Game was a 41-24 final, but I don’t see the rematch (for the National Championship) being that high scoring. For starters, Alabama doesn’t have WR John Metchie this time. Metchie suffered a season-ending injury in the first meeting, after hauling in six catches for 97 yards. Also, note there was a defensive TD scored in the SEC Championship, which probably won’t happen again. Both defenses looked dominant in their respective semi final victories. Both those games went Under and I’m banking on this one to do the same. I had Georgia in CFP Semifinals as they laid waste to Michigan by a score of 34-11. The Bulldogs’ top ranked defense, which had three shutouts and held nine teams to 10 points or less in the regular season, again showed up in a major way vs. the Wolverines. This group is allowing just 9.6 PPG for the season and excluding the SEC Championship, has held the other 12 opponents to only 94 points. Other than Alabama, nobody scored more than 17 points against Georgia all season. The Tide are the only offense to score multiple touchdowns in the same game against Georgia. Now it should be pointed out that Alabama’s defense also looked pretty ferocious against Cincinnati, holding them to just six points and 218 total yards. For the year, the Crimson Tide allow just 19.2 PPG. With this being a second meeting, there’s greater familiarity between the two sides. Probably not a lot of surprises from either offense. 8* Under Georgia/Alabama |
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01-10-22 | Jazz v. Pistons OVER 223 | Top | 116-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Over Jazz/Pistons (7:10 ET): When I first saw this number, I assumed that it was the highest O/U line for any Pistons game this season. But it’s not even their highest of the month. Games against Milwaukee and Charlotte both had higher O/U lines and the one vs. Charlotte is worth mentioning here as the Pistons gave up 140 points in the game. In their most recent game, a 97-92 win over Orlando, the Pistons allowed just 33.7% shooting. But there’s no way we’re going to see anything close to that tonight as they face the team with the most efficient offense in the NBA. Utah has dropped back to back games, the latest being a 125-113 loss to Indiana where they let the Pacers hit 55% from the floor. I’ll come back to that in a moment. But know that the last time the Jazz dropped B2B games, they came back to win six in a row. Only Golden State and Phoenix (both 30-9 SU) have better records than the Jazz this year and only the Warriors have a better YTD point differential. As I stated earlier, no team averages more points per possession. Utah also averages a league-best 115.7 points per game. But the Jazz are missing their best defender right now, Rudy Gobert, and that played a significant role in them allowing the Pacers to shoot 55% from the floor. I know that Detroit is probably not capable of shooting THAT well, but I do expect them to easily break 100 points in this game. In the first three games after the New Year, the Pistons topped 110 each time. Eight of Utah’s last 10 games have seen at least 225 total points scored. 8* Over Jazz/Pistons |
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01-09-22 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 229.5 | Top | 141-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10* Over T’wolves/Rockets (7:10 ET): Minnesota is now fully healthy and on Friday I saw first-hand what they were capable of doing when that’s the case. The T’wolves crushed OKC 135-105 as a relatively short road favorite. That was a mistake by me to doubt this team’s ability to go on the road and beat one of the weakest teams in the league. (In my defense, it was just the second time all season that the T’wolves were road favorites). The situation now repeats itself as they are in Houston on Sunday. I’m obviously not going to try and fade the T’wolves again here. The trio of Towns, Russell and Edwards combined for 70 points (on 27 of 39 shooting) Friday. It was just the second game back (from health and safety protocol) for Towns and Russell and clearly this is a playoff caliber team when those two are in the lineup (at least good enough for the play-in round). While Minnesota may not score 135 points again tonight, they should still put up a big number against a Houston team that’s giving up an average of 123.6 points its last five games and 115.9 for the season. The T’wolves’ overall shooting for the season (43.5%) is certainly due to improve. The Over is 4-1 in the Rockets’ last five games and that’s despite them shooting only 43.7% themselves. They are putting up 110 PPG when at home this season. Their last game (scored 106 points) was their lowest scoring effort since 12/27 and they were just 12 of 43 from three-point range. So, better offense tonight, coupled with the usual defense from the Rockets should lead to an easy Over. 10* Over T’wolves/Rockets |
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01-09-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-09-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals (4:25 ET): Seattle (6-10 SU) has nothing to play for here while Arizona (11-5) can still win the NFC West by winning this game and the Rams losing to the 49ers. That’s hardly the unlikeliest of scenarios and it’s tough not to expect the Cardinals to win here, given they easily defeated the Seahawks earlier in the year, 23-13, with Colt McCoy at QB. But given the fact Seattle has a +21 point differential for the season (they are better than their record), I’m not about to lay this many points here. The Seahawks put up 51 points in the home finale last week. Granted, that came against the Lions, but it was the third time in the last five weeks that they put up 30 or more points. Four of those five games went Over the total. Expect a much better offensive effort out of Seattle here, compared to the first meeting with Arizona, which was just the second game back for Russell Wilson after finger surgery. The Seattle offense also now has RB Penny, who is coming off a career-best 170 yard day. Arizona ended a three-game losing skid with a surprise 25-22 win over Dallas last week. This offense went for over 400 yards the first time it faced the Seattle defense. Again, that was with Colt McCoy under center. The Cardinals will need to continue scoring, given the defense has allowed 22 points or more in five straight games. Fortunately, they have Kyler Murray, who is set to become the first QB in NFL history with 3,500+ yards passing and 400+ yards rushing in each of his first three seasons. I see this game going Over. 8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 51-26 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Cowboys/Eagles (8:15 ET): With both teams having already clinched a playoff spot, and little chance to improve seeding, don’t expect many fireworks here on Saturday night. Certainly, this will be nothing like the first meeting, which was a 41-21 win by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Dallas will play its starters, but for how long remains to be seen. Philadelphia is dealing with a COVID outbreak and QB Jalen Hurts has an ankle sprain. So they won’t resemble the team that’s won six of seven. Even if Hurts does play, I don’t see the Eagles doing much offensively, even though the Cowboys are thin at linebacker. Certainly, Philly is going to want to keep it conservative in preparation for next week’s road playoff game (likely against Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay). Philly may lead the league in rushing, but their RB group is very thin right now. My expectation here is that by the second half you’ll have Gardner Minshew at QB with a third-string RB. That could be the dynamic for the entire game, honestly. The Dallas’ offense has declined in recent weeks - with one notable exception - the MNF beatdown of Washington. But that was at home. The Cowboys’ points per game average dips dramatically on the road, all the way down to 23.5 from 36.4 at home. Fortunately, their defense is allowing only 19.4 PPG in road games. The Eagles defense, while not exactly facing a slew of great QBs, has held its last five opponents to 14.8 PPG. The key here is that scoring should come to a grinding halt after halftime. 8* Under Cowboys/Eagles |
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01-08-22 | Cornell v. Princeton UNDER 161.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
8* Under Cornell/Princeton (6:00 ET): This is a high total for both teams and really you won’t find many higher across the entire College Basketball card today. The high O/U line isn’t without justification. Princeton has gone Over in each of its last seven lined games, including last night, which was a 84-69 win over Columbia. Cornell is 8-3 to the Over this season, but last night’s game, a 75-69 loss to Penn, did stay Under. I think this number is too high and will play accordingly. For those who are unfamiliar, the Ivy League schedule has its members play both Friday and Saturday night, almost every week, during conference play. With conference play just getting underway, this will be the first time this season for both Cornell and Princeton that they are playing without rest. Expect that to have an effect. First and foremost, I do not expect Princeton to continue the kind of torrid shooting we’ve seen from them most of the year. Last night, they “only” shot 46.8% in what was their first game in over two weeks. Cornell was much worse, shooting only 33.3% last night. The Big Red have now failed to score 70 points in three of their last four games. Princeton should keep them in check as they are holding visitors to 43% from the field at home this season. But I think the big key is that the Tigers’ offensive numbers have to start curtailing. Prior to last night, they’d shot 51% in six of their previous seven games. I just do not think that’s sustainable. This number, the highest for any Princeton game this season, is dropping quickly. So get your bet in quickly! 8* Under Cornell/Princeton |
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01-07-22 | Spurs v. 76ers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Spurs/76ers (7:10 ET): Philadelphia, who ended up being the top seed in the Eastern Conference last season, has started to get going of late with five consecutive victories. This win streak has them up to fifth in the Eastern Conference, two games back of 4th place and five games back of the top spot. The Sixers have certainly been scoring more (118.0 PPG) during their win streak, but a curious thing about this team is how much WORSE they’ve been at home (7-8 SU) compared to the road (14-8 SU). The Under is 11-4 in all Sixers’ home games and that’s the trend I’ll follow here. San Antonio is a team that I feel is better than its 15-22 SU record. They have a positive point differential on the year, which is something that only five other teams in the Western Conference (the top five) can say right now. But before a 99-97 win in Boston the other night, the Spurs had dropped four straight with three of those defeats coming on the road. Like a lot of teams, the Spurs are short-handed as a number of players remain in health & safety protocol. They did have four starters finish in double figures against Boston, but even so they still couldn’t score 100 points. Four of the last five games have seen them fail to top 105 points. When it comes to how the teams should perform at the offensive end tonight, I’m just not expecting big nights from either side. Philadelphia is unlikely to be as prolific here as they were vs. Orlando on Wednesday when they shot above 50% overall and 42% from three-point range. So expect a drop in scoring for them. Same with San Antonio as four starters scoring in double figures again may not be realistic. The Under is 13-6-2 in the Spurs’ previous 21 road games. 10* Under Spurs/76ers |
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01-06-22 | Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 210 | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
8* Under Celtics/Knicks (7:35 ET): Neither of these teams can be happy with their current record. Both are 18-20 SU, which is tied for 10th place in the Eastern Conference. Of the two, I’d say the Celtics are more likely to move up, but that’s no guarantee. Boston lost last night, 99-97 to San Antonio, thus ending a two-game win streak. The game came down to the final play, which was a missed layup by Jaylen Brown after a steal. The Celtics are 6-2 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. The Knicks are coming off a win Tuesday night as they beat the Pacers 104-94. Over the last five games, the team has averaged only 95.8 PPG. On the bright side, they’ve only allowed 96.4. There had been three consecutive games where neither the Knicks nor their opponent scored 100 points. That was before a 120-105 loss to Toronto on Sunday. Tuesday saw Julius Randle return to the lineup after missing several games due to COVID and he scored 30 points. RJ Barrett went for 32, but the rest of the team combined for only 42 points. This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams. The first two both went Over, but one was a double overtime game. Neither team shoots all that well with Boston at 43.9% on the road and New York at 43.6% overall for the year. I don’t think NY can count on Randle and Barrett both going for 30+ again while Boston’s Jayson Tatum admitted to still being “rusty” after catching COVID for a second time. The Knicks are 5-1 Under their L6 games while the Celtics are 6-2 Under in their L8. Look for those trends to continue here. 8* Under Celtics/Knicks |
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01-05-22 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 225.5 | Top | 117-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
8* Under Raptors/Bucks (8:05 ET): So this is obviously a case of “bucking” the recent trend that has seen Toronto go Over in each of its last eight games. That’s a pretty long streak and during that time the team has exceeded its season average in points scored (107.6 per game) seven times. The Raptors are off B2B 120+ point efforts in beating the Knicks and Spurs, but I think they’ll find it much harder to score tonight when they face a Milwaukee team that is allowing just 42.5% shooting here at home. Now the Bucks have also been doing a lot of scoring themselves recently. They scored 136 pts in B2B games last week. But that was followed with a shocking loss to the Pistons last time out, 115-106, as a 16-point home favorite. The Bucks’ recent schedule has been incredibly “soft” with two games against the Magic, one against the Pelicans and then the Pistons. Lack of defense has been a bit troubling for the defending NBA Champs recently. They’ve allowed 110+ points in five straight games. I say that streak ends tonight. Toronto’s scoring is clearly due to subside while Milwaukee’s defense is set to improve. But what kind of defensive effort should we expect from the Raptors tonight? Well, over the last three games, they’ve held opponents to an average of just 105.7 PPG. The Bucks are coming off their second worst three-point shooting performance of the season. They made only 11 of 46 attempts from beyond the arc against the Pistons. Also note that when these teams faced off in Toronto last month, the final score was 97-93 (Raptors won). 8* Under Raptors/Bucks |
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01-05-22 | Nebraska v. Michigan State UNDER 150.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
8* Under Nebraska/Michigan State (7:00 ET): Nebraska is obviously one of the weaker teams in the Big 10, but they did just take Ohio State to overtime on Sunday. Unfortunately for the Cornhuskers, they lost that game 87-79 and now must turn around to head to East Lansing and face top 10 Michigan State. The Spartans are off to a 3-0 start in conference play after defeating Northwestern 73-67 on the road Sunday. That was their fifth straight game to go Over, but this O/U line is very high and I’m going Under. In fact, it’s looking like this could close as the highest O/U line in any game for Sparty this season. The previous high was 149 against Toledo and that pushed with MSU winning 81-68. What’s remarkable about the last game going Over the total is Sparty shot just 38.5% from the field while holding N’western to 32.3%. Tonight’s game may not feature such poor shooting, but the O/U line being so high means that’s okay. Only two MSU games this season have seen more than 150 total points scored: the opener vs Kansas (161) and a game with Oakland (168). It is incredibly unlikely that Nebraska will win this game. They are 1-24 SU their L25 road games and are just 6-45 SU their L51 games as an underdog. They’ve lost 70 of the last 73 times they’ve been a road dog of at least 12.5 points including 0 for the last 15. Because the Cornhuskers are shooting just 27.9% from three-point range, Michigan State should easily keep them in check. Assuming this one isn’t close at the end, there won’t be much fouling and the home team can just shorten the game with long possessions. Note that Nebraska’s game with Ohio State was tied at 72 at the end of regulation. 8* Under Nebraska/Michigan State |
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01-03-22 | Maryland v. Iowa UNDER 151.5 | Top | 75-80 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
8* Under Maryland/Iowa (9:00 ET): It’s tough competition in the Big 10 this year as you’ve got seven teams from this conference currently ranked in my Top 30. I think we can all agree who the best team is (Purdue), but after that you’ve got six teams pretty closely congested. Iowa is among that group and the Hawkeyes will take a three-game win streak into tonight’s clash with Maryland. The Hawkeyes, who do have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, topped 90 points in all three of their recent wins. But those were also all non-conference games. Maryland should prove to be a lot stingier. The Terrapins were a team that opened the year ranked in the Top 25, but I was not a real believer in what was going on in College Park. I played against them in an outright loss to George Mason and since that time the Terps are 5-3 including a 67-61 loss to Northwestern in their only conference outing thus far. This team struggles to shoot the three (30.2% for the year). Friday’s win over Brown (81-67) was their highest scoring game in awhile, but still wouldn’t have gone Over this total, nor would have any game but one since the season opener. Iowa’s two previous conference games were rough as they lost both of them. Now they played Purdue and Illinois, who I think are the top two teams in the league. There was also a dreadful 53-point effort in a blowout loss to Iowa State. The Hawkeyes have followed those three straight losses with the three-game win streak I mentioned earlier, but scoring against Maryland will be a lot tougher than it was against the likes of SE Louisiana and W Illinois. The Terps are holding teams below 40% shooting for the year. Good for Iowa then that they allow only 40.2% shooting at home. 8* Under Maryland/Iowa |
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01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 42 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Browns/Steelers (8:15 ET): After the events of Sunday, the Browns are eliminated from playoff contention. The Steelers basically are as well. So it’s all about “pride” Monday Night. Cleveland has revenge for a 15-10 home loss on Halloween, which dropped their all-time record vs. Ben Roethlisberger to a woeful 3-24-1. This will almost certainly be Big Ben’s final home game in a Steelers uniform and I’m sure his teammates will want to send him off with a win. Given how poorly these offenses have performed much of this season, I’m expecting this to be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. I won with the Under in the Browns’ game last week, which ended up being a 24-22 loss in Green Bay. Embattled QB Baker Mayfield played horribly, tossing four interceptions. As discussed in the analysis for that X-mas Day play, the Browns’ offense had previously been held to 17 points or less in seven of nine games. Excluding defensive TD’s, they’ve topped 22 just twice since Week 3. Luckily, the defense has kept the Browns in many games this season. It has allowed 24 points or less in eight of the last nine games and has allowed 16 points or less in half the games this season. It’s not a great Pittsburgh offense anymore. They’ve failed to score a single touchdown in the first half since Week 11. Personally, I don’t think the Steelers are any good; they’ve been outscored by 70 points this year and have been behind by double digits in five of the last six games. They’ve led for about 10 minutes of actual game time in that stretch. In four division games so far, the Steelers’ offense has averaged just 13.8 PPG. But I still trust the defense. The last two home games have seen the Steelers allow just 19 and 13 points. Both of those went Under. So will this one. 10* Under Browns/Steelers |
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01-03-22 | Hornets v. Wizards UNDER 229 | Top | 121-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Under Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): These are two teams I could see sliding down the standings before we hit the All-Star Break. Washington had been 6-0 in games decided by three points or less this season. That was before losing at the buzzer against Chicago on Saturday, 120-119. The kind of luck the Wizards were having in close games is something that is certainly hard to sustain over the course of the season. This team actually has the third worst point differential in the entire Eastern Conference entering Monday. Charlotte just got blasted at home last night, 133-99 by Phoenix. That ended a three-game SU win streak and four-game ATS win streak. But it did make it five straight Unders for the Hornets. Because they allow the most points per game in the entire NBA, Hornets’ totals are consistently among the highest in the league. I think this affords us a nice opportunity to start taking some Unders as scoring is down league-wide this season and the trend figures to hit Charlotte sooner than later. The Hornets only shot 25% from three-point range last night. Any gains in that area tonight will be nullified by certainly allowing fewer points to the Wizards than what they gave up against the Suns. Washington was without seven players for its last game, so I was surprised to see them score so many points. They play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Charlotte is only averaging 104.9 points in division games this season and the Under is a perfect 5-0 in the L5 meetings between these teams (2-0 this season). 10* Under Hornets/Wizards |
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01-03-22 | Ath Bilbao v. Osasuna OVER 2 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Athletic Bilbao/Osasuna (3:00 ET): I’m of the opinion that Athletic Bilbao should be a lot higher in the La Liga table. They currently sit in 11th place, but in xPts they are 4th. The biggest reason for that discrepancy seems to be an extraordinary lack of luck when it comes to scoring goals. The difference between the number of actual goals scored (17) and xG (expected goals) is -11.29, easily the largest in La Liga and any of Europe’s biggest four leagues, for that matter. As 2022 gets underway, I think you should look for more goals from Athletic Club moving forward. I’m on the Over this week. Osasuna is another mid-table side, currently 14th with 22 points. That’s only two adrift of their opponents this week and they’ve scored the same number of goals on the campaign. The difference though is Osasuna has conceded six more goals than Athletic Bilbao. It’s been a long time since Los Rojillos won in the Spanish top flight, mid-October to be precise, but three of the last four have finished level, including a 2-2 draw with Barcelona back on Dec 12th. But they are coming off an embarrassing 1-0 loss to Getafe before the break where the lone goal was scored in stoppage time (93rd minute). While Osasuna has been kept scoreless in two of its last three La Liga fixtures, they did score six goals in two wins in the Copa del Rey last month. We don't need many goals here to cash an Over here and with Athletic Club due to break out, I wouldn’t be surprised if they send this one Over themselves. But I’m predicting both sides will get on the scoresheet in this one. It was 2-2 in the most recent meeting, which was back in May. The last two Bilbao matches have seen five and three total goals scored. 10* Athletic Bilbao/Osasuna |
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01-02-22 | Wolves v. Lakers UNDER 225 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under T’Wolves/Lakers (9:35 ET): The Lakers finally played a good game the other night, beating the Blazers 139-106. I don’t think they’ll shoot 55.3% from the floor again though, or even close to that tonight against the T’wolves. LeBron James had a season-high 43 points in that win on New Year’s Eve. It should be noted that three days earlier the team shot better than 50% and topped 130 points in a win over the Rockets. The next game they scored 99 in a loss to the Grizzlies. So we’ve got one team (the Lakers) with a virtual guaranteed drop in offensive production from its last game. Then you’ve got Minnesota, who is having COVID issues. Their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, is among those that are currently out of the lineup. The T’wolves have lost four of five since the COVID issues reared their ugly head and in the last two games they have averaged only 99 points. Since the start of December, there has been only one game where Minnesota shot better than 47% from the floor. That’s remarkable. There have been two previous meetings between these teams this season. Both went Under. Surprisingly, Minnesota was the winner each time, holding the Lakers to 92 and 83 points. The T’wolves have gone Under in 10 of their 13 games this season against teams that have losing records. The Lakers are 18-19 on the year. This seems like a high total, especially with the Lakers 12-2 Under following a SU win by 10 or more points. 10* Under T’wolves/Lakers |
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01-02-22 | Broncos v. Chargers OVER 45 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Broncos/Chargers (4:05 ET): This is the second meeting of the season between these long-standing AFC West rivals. Denver won the first, 28-13, as a 2.5-point home dog. I was on the Broncos in that spot, but it was actually a much luckier win that the final score indicates as the Chargers had the edge in total yards. Turnovers hurt LA that day, much like they did last week in a stunning 41-29 loss to Houston. Coming off a bad loss like that, I wouldn’t want to lay points with the Chargers here. But I think it’s a given they will put up more points in this second matchup. Give me the Over. The Chargers’ last four games have all gone Over. They’ve averaged 33.8 points in that time, but unfortunately are also allowing 29.5 PPG. So that’s an average of 63.3 total points for the four games. We don’t need nearly that many to get the Over here. QB Herbert will ensure that the offense points up points here. The Chargers are third in the league, averaging 30.3 PPG at home. But the defense remains a liability. It gives up the fourth most rushing yards per game in the league. The Bolts have allowed 140+ rush yards eight times this season and 170+ four times. Denver games typically go much differently as they have the highest Under percentage in the league this season and their Under percentage under HC Vic Fangio is highest in the league during that time. Drew Lock will be the starting QB for the Broncos, so look for him to lean on the running game. Again, that’s a good thing, given what I outlined above. The Broncos averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the first meetings with the Chargers, a game that they finished with 28 points. Both teams should top 21 this time. 10* Over Broncos/Chargers |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss OVER 55.5 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 51 m | Show |
10* Over Baylor/Ole Miss (8:45 ET): After seven straight Unders to end the regular season, I expect Ole Miss to come out “flying” in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Night. The same can be said for Baylor, whose last four games all went Under. This number is shockingly low for two teams that combine to average almost 68.5 points/game. I won’t be the least bit surprised if this one goes Over by the end of the third quarter. Matt Corral of Ole Miss is one of only four QBs in the country to throw for 20 touchdowns and run for at least 10. In addition to that, the Rebels are the only team in America with at least four 500+ yard rushers. Overall, this offense was incredibly balanced and wound up fourth in the county in total offense, averaging 282.4 YPG passing and 224.2 YPG rushing. The Rebels average 35.9 PPG. Baylor has a really strong defense, but has not faced an offense as good as Ole Miss all season. Fortunately for the Bears, they should also be able to put plenty of points on the board here. They average 32.5 PPG overall. Look for the Bears to be able to run the ball very effectively in this game; they average 5.2 yards per carry. They’ll have to, in order to trade points with Corral. 10* Over Baylor/Ole Miss |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame UNDER 46 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 7 m | Show |
8* Under Oklahoma State/Notre Dame (1:00 ET): Both of these teams were hoping to make the College Football Playoff, but instead had to “settle” for a first-ever meeting in the Fiesta Bowl. Notre Dame’s only loss this year was to Cincinnati, at home, something that all but ensured the Fighting Irish could not slip past the Bearcats into the top four. Oklahoma State had two losses, both close, one at Iowa State and then the other in the Big 12 Championship Game to Baylor. These teams have combined to go 18-7 ATS, so I’ve got no interest in the side, but I do think we’re getting a low-scoring game here. Take the Under. Oklahoma State has the third ranked defense in the country in terms of yards allowed (278.4) and is eighth in scoring (16.8 PPG). They are great both against the run (5th in FBS) and the pass (12th). They do a great job on third down, allowing conversions only 26.1% of the time, which is second best in the country. But perhaps most impressive of all is that the Cowboys are #1 nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss. Notre Dame does average 35.3 PPG, but their high-scoring games were against mostly bad teams, and they are just middle of the pack in yards gained. Also, RB Kyren Williams won’t be playing in the Fiesta Bowl. So don’t expect the Fighting Irish to score a ton on Saturday. Similarly, Oklahoma State only averages 22.8 PPG away from Stillwater. Notre Dame has a pretty stout defense, giving up just 18.3 PPG and over the L10 games, they held seven opponents to 16 points or less. The last four games saw the Irish allow just 23 total points and that includes 14 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. Not only is the Under 6-1 in Oklahoma State’s last seven bowl games, but it is a perfect 8-0 their L8 bowl games as a dog. Notre Dame is 4-0 Under its last four bowl games. 8* Under Oklahoma State/Notre Dame |
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12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Clippers/Raptors (7:30 ET): While overall shooting may not be as woeful here as it was in the Clippers’ last game, I’m not exactly anticipating a lot of offensive firepower when LA heads “north of the border” to face Toronto on New Year’s Eve. The Clippers won 91-82 on Wednesday, mostly thanks to Boston going an unthinkable 4 of 42 from three-point range. They won’t be that “lucky” at the defensive end tonight, but playing short-handed (no George or Leonard), the Clips aren’t likely to do much scoring themselves here. Toronto is getting healthier as the number of players on the COVID-19 list has dropped from ten to two. But they are off two straight losses, one a complete embarrassment (144-109 to the Cavs) when the Raptors were extremely short-handed and then 114-109 to the 76ers on Tuesday. They shot 42.7% from the field in those two losses, which isn’t all that atypical. For the season, the Raptors have a 43.9 FG% and they are bottom five in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Still, the Raptors’ last five games have all found a way to go Over the total. I look for that streak to end tonight. The Clippers are on a 5-1 run to the Under, so things have been going quite differently for them. LA has averaged only 99.2 PPG on 42.9% shooting its last five games and they are actually bottom five in the league in offensive efficiency. With the Clippers missing their leading scorer and Toronto having so many players working their way back into the lineup, expect a low-scoring game. 10* Under Clippers/Raptors |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee UNDER 65 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
10* Under Tennessee/Purdue (3:00 ET): After ending the regular season with a 5-0 Over run, Tennessee finished in a three-way tie (with Rice & La Tech) for the highest Over percentage in the country this season. As a result, the O/U line for the Music City Bowl has definitely been “on the move,” reaching a high point of 64.0 as of this writing. But this is where I’ve got to step in and go “the other way” as Purdue will be missing its top two receivers on Thursday and their games only averaged 48.0 points this season. Without the two top pass catchers - David Bell and Milton Wright - the Boilermakers’ offense won’t come close to resembling how it looked in upset victories over Iowa and Michigan State during the regular season. Consider that even with those two in the lineup, Purdue averaged “only” 27.5 PPG. And it’s not like they can turn to a run game which averaged only 2.78 yards per carry, worst in the entire FBS! It’s a completely one-dimensional Purdue offense and the Tennessee defense is catching a big break here with the top two Boilermakers’ receivers being out. Tennessee’s offense also has a prolific passing attack. But they struggle in pass protection, having given up 42 sacks, which was the most among SEC teams. Purdue’s defense is going to be without its ace pass rusher, George Karlaftis, but should still get to Vols QB Hendon Hooker with some regularity. The Boilermakers only allow 20.5 PPG and shut down pretty much everyone with the exception of Ohio State. With the O/U line moving so much, I’m seeing lots of value with the Under here. 10* Under Tennessee/Purdue |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia v. Minnesota UNDER 45 | Top | 6-18 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
8* Under West Virginia/Minnesota (10:15 ET): With leading rusher Leddie Brown opting out of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, all of a sudden Minnesota becomes a very bad matchup for WVU. The Golden Gophers’ defense ranks fourth nationally in total defense and is ninth against the run. Without Brown, the Mountaineers are going to heavily lean on QB Jarret Doege, but the problem is Doege’s yards per pass attempt (7.4) ranked near the bottom of the Big 12 and WVU generated only 10 plays of 40+ yards all season. With Minnesota allowing just 4.98 yards per play and 18.3 PPG, WVU will struggle to score Tuesday night. For the Golden Gophers, the running back position was hit hard by injuries, which led to some early growing pains. Still, look for HC PJ Fleck to look to establish the run in this game as Minnesota led the Big 10 in rushing attempts during the regular season. Whether or not that can be an effective strategy remains to be seen, however. West Virginia allows only 129.6 rush yards per game, 5.5 yards per play and 24.3 PPG. Even if Minnesota is able to find some success moving the football, they’ll encounter resistance in the red zone where the Mountaineers’ defense ranks 11th nationally in efficiency. So this should be the rare low-scoring bowl game and I’m taking the Under. For what it’s worth, the total alternated over West Virginia’s last eight regular season games and the last one - a 34-28 win over Kansas that got them bowl eligible - went Over. So if that pattern holds, this game is staying Under. There were five games this year where WVU failed to top 20 points and that was with Brown in the lineup. Only two of Minnesota’s last 10 opponents were able to exceed 16 points. The Under is 12-3 in WVU’s L15 games as a dog while Minnesota has gone Under six straight times in the month of December. 8* Under West Virginia/Minnesota |
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12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs UNDER 228.5 | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Jazz/Spurs (8:35 ET): Both these teams are coming off back to back high scoring encounters. Utah held off Dallas on Christmas Night, 120-116, in a game that featured a ton of free throw attempts. That followed a 128-116 win over Minnesota. Meanwhile, San Antonio is off its two best offensive games of the season as they scored 138 on the Lakers Thursday and 144 on Detroit last night. For a variety of reasons, I anticipate we’ll be seeing a massive decrease in scoring from both teams on Monday. The Jazz won’t have PG Donovan Mitchell available tonight due to a back strain. The injury actually occurred in the first quarter of the Dallas game, but Mitchell still went on to score 33 points, his ninth 30+ point game of the season. It’s a big loss not having him on the floor for this game and Utah’s league-leading offense should suffer as a result. I certainly don’t expect the Jazz to get to the free throw line 37 times like they did vs. the Mavs. The team also averages fewer points per game on the road than it does at home. But Utah’s defense actually gets better on their travels, holding teams to 102.5 PPG. As a result, Jazz road games see about eight fewer total points per game scored than their home games. The defensive effort will be needed here against a Spurs team that just had its highest scoring first half and game of the season last night. But again, it is unlikely that SA can even come close to replicating that kind of offensive effort here. They too are without their starting PG (Murray) and the Under is 7-3 the L10 times the Spurs have been in the second night of a back to back.. Both teams are due to “cool off”. 10* Under Jazz/Spurs |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
8* Over Jaguars/Jets (1:00 ET): I also like the Over in this game. Again, the Jaguars should score a season-high in points. There have been only two games since their bye, which was in Week 6, where the Jets didn’t allow at least 30 points. I know I talked about the Jets being short-handed when it comes to pass catchers, but considering that last week marked the seventh time this season that the Jaguars’ defense surrendered 30 or more points, the home team should have its own opportunities to score. With this being a matchup of two of the worst teams in football, expect little defense to be played and a surprising shootout to ensue. The Over is 4-0 in the previous meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Jets |
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12-25-21 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 214.5 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Mavericks/Jazz (10:35 ET): Rolling into XMas night with a 22-9 overall record, Utah is pretty clearly one of the three top teams in the NBA right now, alongside Phoenix and Golden State. While the Jazz may trail both those teams in the standings, they are actually level with the Warriors for the best point differential in the league and have an ever-so-slightly better net efficiency rating. I’ve got them at #1 in my own personal power ratings. The most efficient offensive team in the league (and highest scoring), the Jazz are big favorites here against the short-handed Mavericks. But it won’t take many points to win this game. You’re going to want to go with the Under here. The Under has hit in 9 of Dallas’ last 11 games. Part of that is the Mavericks play at the slowest pace in the entire league. Fewer possessions equal fewer points and that’s the name of the game here. But the main reason the Mavs will look to “shorten” the game is because Luka Doncic (and likely many others) remain out because of COVID. The team could manage only 95 points last time out as they suffered a seven-point loss to Milwaukee (who was without Giannis Antetokounmpo). In that game, the Mavs had five players suit up that were under 10-day contracts. Three of the top four scorers are out. Doncic won’t even travel with the team XMas Day. So I’d say it’s a safe assumption that Dallas won’t be doing a ton of scoring on Saturday. Only twice in their last 11 games have they scored more than 105 in a game and those were against Charlotte and Minnesota, two of the worst defensive teams. The key to this Under then rests on the Mavs’ ability to slow down the Utah offense. One good thing for the Mavs is that I don’t think the Jazz are going to shoot as well as they did on Thursday vs. Minnesota when they made 53.3% of their FG attempts. A natural decline from that number will help the underdog, who is not only 9-2 Under their L11 games overall, but also 35-17 Under the L52 times taking points. 10* Under Mavericks/Jazz |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Browns/Packers (4:30 ET): The Browns have activated several key contributors from the COVID-19 list, among them QB Baker Mayfield and WR Jarvis Landry. They will also have HC Kevin Stefanski back on the sidelines after he too missed last Saturday’s 16-14 home loss to the Raiders. But pinning that lackluster offensive effort on all of the absences might be “wishful thinking” in Cleveland; this is a team that has been held to 17 points or fewer in seven of its last nine games. One of the two times it wasn’t was thanks to a defensive TD. The presumed return of Mayfield and company won’t necessarily lead to an abundance of scoring from the Browns here. Now Green Bay doesn’t have much difficulty scoring, thanks to Aaron Rodgers. While the Browns’ postseason hopes just took a massive hit with that loss to the Raiders, the Packers are already assured of a spot in the postseason and have wrapped up the NFC North. They come into Saturday at 11-3 SU having just held on to beat the Ravens last week, 31-30, when Baltimore failed to convert a two-point try. That was the fourth straight game to go Over for the Packers and they’ve averaged 35.7 PPG themselves during that stretch. I’ll get back to that in a minute. But first, I’ve got no worries about the Packers’ defense keeping the Cleveland offense in check here. I’ve already documented the Browns’ season-long offensive struggles. It’s more than half their games that they’ve failed to score more than 17 points. Well, Green Bay’s defense only allows 17.0 PPG at Lambeau. So there’s that. But Cleveland’s defense has allowed 16 points or less in eight games this season, including six of the last eight. 8* Under Browns/Packers |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State OVER 51 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Ball State/Georgia State (2:30 ET): In last year’s bowl appearance, Ball State provided me with the biggest win of the College Football season. The Cardinals were my 10* Game of the Year going up against undefeated San Jose State in the Arizona Bowl. I remember it like it was yesterday. As a nine-point underdog, BSU raced out to a 27-0 first quarter lead and never looked back in a 34-13 outright victory! While I’m not taking the Cardinals plus the points this time, hopefully this Over play wins just as easily! Now asking Ball State to go Over the total this season hasn’t been easy. Only three of their 12 games have ended up that way. But this is a bowl game - on Christmas Day no less - and defense may certainly be “optional,” not just for the Cardinals, but for both teams. I know that the last three bowl games all stayed Under. But the Over was 9-2 in the first 11 bowls. Then there’s the matter of this being the second lowest O/U line for any BSU game all season. The previous low was 47.5 for a game with Army. It’s interesting to note that while the Under may be 9-3 in all BSU games this season, eight of those would have gone OVER this total. Similarly, Georgia State games averaged 54.0 points this season and at least half would have exceeded this number. There were five games this season, four of them losses, where the Panthers allowed 34 or more points. But their offense also seemed to “peak” down the stretch, averaging 35.7 points over the last three games, a stretch which included a 42-40 upset of Coastal Carolina. 10* Over Ball State/Georgia State |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 214.5 | Top | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
8* Over Thunder/Suns (9:05 ET): This may surprise you given how I spoke of the Thunder in yesterday’s (successful) Under play. While it’s still true that Oklahoma City is the lowest scoring team in the NBA, they have now topped their season average in four straight games, which includes three consecutive straight up victories over teams that were in the playoffs last year. I expect the Thunder to shoot a lot better from three-point range tonight than they did Wednesday vs. Denver (23.5%) and the team they face is more than capable of putting a big number on the board. So Over is the call on Thursday. Phoenix has shown no real signs of regressing after last year’s run to the NBA Finals. They did start the season 1-3, but since then have gone 24-2 SU including an 18-game win streak. The Suns easily beat the Lakers on Tuesday, 108-90, for their fourth straight victory. As you can see, that was a relatively low-scoring victory as the Suns shot below 30% from three-point range. (They were coming off a game where they shot 56.8% overall and scored 137 points). At the defensive end, the Suns were even stingier though, holding the Lakers to 39.1% overall including 7 of 35 from three-point range. Don’t be surprised if/when the three-pointers are flying (and going in) tonight. Phoenix shoots 37.4% from behind the arc at home, so I’d say they are a lock to shoot better tonight than they did vs. the Lakers. They are averaging 113.5 PPG at home and that’s a number I believe they can exceed here. If so, we’re only going to need 100 from OKC and given their recent form, that seems “doable” as well. When in the second night of a back to back, the Thunder are allowing over 120 PPG this season. The Over is 20-8 in Phoenix’s last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and OKC is 5-9 SU on the road this year. 8* Over Thunder/Suns |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans OVER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* Over 49ers/Titans (8:20 ET): San Francisco is surging and despite still only being third in their own division, they are very much in play for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Niners have won five of their last six games and last week’s 31-13 dismantling of the lowly Falcons marked the fourth time in that stretch where they scored 30 or more points. The other two games saw them score 26 and 23. Over the L8 weeks, Jimmy Garoppolo has posted the league’s 2nd best passer rating (trailing only Aaron Rodgers!) and the running game has averaged 142.4 YPG since Week 11. So expect the Niners to put up points tonight. Tennessee still leads the AFC South, but its once strong grip is loosening as they’ve lost three of their last four games. The division lead (over the Colts) is now down to just one game after blowing a 10-point lead last week and losing 19-13 to the Steelers. That marked the third time in the last four games that the Titans could only put 13 points on the board. But surprisingly the offense has still been able to run the ball without Derrick Henry as they’ve gone for 200+ yards on the ground in two of the last three games. QB Tannehill may be getting some help in the passing game as WR AJ Brown could return tonight. It’s been reported that Brown is “likely” to play. Though it’s been mostly Unders produced by these two teams in recent weeks, look for this one to go Over. The number is just too low. The Niners, who have probably the more “reliable” offense of the two teams right now, are 4-0 Over this season when the total is below 45. Brown’s return would be big for Tennessee, but even without him they should put up enough points here (for the game to go Over) as it’s been turnovers more than anything else that have limited their scoring the last few weeks. The Over is 6-2 in Tennessee’s last eight games as a home dog. 10* Over 49ers/Titans |
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12-22-21 | Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 214.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Over their last six games, the Nuggets have basically averaged almost 120 points per game. Not convinced they can continue to maintain that kind of average moving forward, especially because they are averaging only 106.8 PPG for the season. So look for a decrease in scoring from Denver tonight. Those last six games have all gone Over the total as have 13 of their last 14 games. But tonight they are facing the lowest scoring team in the entire NBA. Take the Under. There’s definitely no shot of Denver matching its scoring output from the last game when they went to Atlanta and shot 58.1% overall from the field, including 17 made three-pointers. The Nuggets currently have a number of players dealing with injuries, so it was definitely surprising to see them “go off” like that on Friday. By the way, the Nuggets haven’t played since Friday. They were supposed to play Brooklyn Sunday, but that had to be postponed. A lengthy layoff could lead to some “rust” and a slow start at the offensive end tonight. Oklahoma City is coming off B2B wins, which is a rare occurrence for them. They’ve upset the Clippers and Grizzlies over the last few days. Both games stayed Under. As mentioned above, the Thunder are the lowest scoring team in the NBA. They don’t even average 100 PPG. Neither of these teams like to play at a particularly fast pace, so we don’t have to worry about that. Denver is 12-5 Under its previous 17 games as a road favorite. 10* Under Nuggets/Thunder |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State v. UTSA UNDER 49.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
8* Under UTSA/San Diego State (7:30 ET): The Frisco Bowl is our best postseason matchup yet as we’ve got two Top 25 teams facing off Tuesday night. The pointspread has been on the move as UTSA’s star running back (Sincere McCormick) won’t play here as he prepares for the NFL Draft. The Roadrunners are also going to be without a couple of key players on defense. Were they at “full strength,” there’s little doubt I’d be siding with UTSA in this one as they look for the first bowl win in program history, following a 12-1 SU regular season and C-USA Championship. But I think the offense may struggle here. San Diego State did not have a good showing in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, losing to Utah State 46-13 as 6.5-point favorites. The Aztecs played that game short-handed as multiple players were out because of COVID. You’re now likely to see a better representation of the team that was 11-1 SU prior to losing to Utah State 17 days ago. The number of points SDSU allowed in the MWC Championship Game were the most ever under HC Brady Hoke. The Aztecs are #2 in the country at stopping the run and figure to slow down a UTSA offense that will be without its best offensive player. In fact, I’ll argue that San Diego State has the best defense that UTSA will have faced all season. Though the Roadrunners did explode for 49 points in the C-USA Championship Game, that was against a Western Kentucky team that doesn’t play much defense. They’d been held to just 28 PPG in the three games previous to that and that was with McCormick in the lineup. I’m not too worried about a SDSU offense that hasn’t scored more than 28 points since early October. In fact, the Aztecs averaged only 20.8 PPG over the last eight contests. I know that these bowl games have been high-scoring thus far, but not this one. 8* Under UTSA/San Diego State |
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12-19-21 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 45.5 | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
8* Under Saints/Bucs (8:20 ET): New Orleans has won six straight regular season meetings over Tampa Bay. But the Saints would gladly trade those six wins in exchange for the last time they lost to the Bucs, which was the Divisional Round of last year’s Playoffs. I had the Saints as a home dog when they upset TB back in Week 8, 36-27 as 3.5 point dogs. But this time it’s a lot harder to like them, not just because the Saints are playing in Tampa (where the Bucs are a perfect 6-0), but because of their own 1-5 slide. Now New Orleans did end a five-game losing streak last week, beating the lowly Jets 30-9. But don’t expect them to score that many points again. The Jets are the worst defensive team in the league. It’s a big jump up in class facing a Buccaneers’ defense, which allows only 18.5 PPG at home. A big difference between now and Week 8 is the Saints’ QB situation. They still had Jameis Winston as the starter on Halloween. Now it’s Taysom Hill. The Saints were able to run for 200+ yards last week, but won’t do that here against a Bucs’ defense that is third in the league against the run. Tom Brady and company have been a scoring machine at home this year, averaging 37.5 PPG. The team has scored 30 or more in four straight games overall, but needed OT to hit that mark last week vs. Buffalo. The Bucs’ defense looked great for three quarters in shutting Josh Allen in the Bills down. I’ll look past what happened in the fourth quarter as they are facing a much weaker offense this week. But expect the Bucs to struggle to score in this one. The Saints’ defense is very good (only 21.9 PPG allowed). None of New Orleans’ last three games have seen more than 44 total pts scored. 8* Under Saints/Bucs |
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12-17-21 | Bucks v. Pelicans OVER 218.5 | Top | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
8* Over Bucks/Pelicans (8:05 ET): Milwaukee had seven players missing from the lineup on Wednesday, one of them being Giannis Antetokounmpo. But they still defeated Indiana 114-99 for their 13th win in the last 16 games. Still short-handed, the reigning NBA Champs now head to the Big Easy to face a Pelicans team that is at the opposite end of the standings. However, NO is off a very exciting win where Devonte’ Graham made a 61-foot shot at the buzzer to beat Oklahoma City 113-110 on Wednesday. The Pelicans’ season got off to a terrible 3-16 start, but they have battled back to win six of their last 11 games including the thriller 48 hours ago. Zion Williamson hasn’t played a minute this season. As for the catalyst of the recent “turnaround,” you’ve got to point in the direction of Brandon Ingram, who averages a team-high 23.4 points per game after averaging 27.9 over the last eight games. The Bucks could get Kris Middleton back for tonight’s game, but regardless of that I like this game to go Over the total. We saw what Jrue Holliday can do on Wednesday when he scored 26 points and had a season-high 14 assists. Something to keep in mind with all these absences going around the NBA is that teams typically still find a way to score. New Orleans is on a 13-3 Over run when facing teams with winning records. The Over is 23-9 the L32 meetings between these teams, including 5-1 L6 here in NO. 8* Over Bucks/Pelicans |
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12-16-21 | Knicks v. Rockets OVER 215.5 | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Knicks/Rockets (8:05 ET): Houston had been surprising a lot of people of late, winning 8 of 10 games straight up while also going 8-1-1 ATS in the process. However, last night they ran into an even hotter Cleveland team, who slapped them with a 124-89 beatdown. That was more reminiscent of the Rockets’ 1-16 start to the season, which saw them get held under 100 points nine times. But I’m expecting a better effort tonight at the offensive end against the Knicks. New York was one of last year’s surprise teams. But as I’ve previously written, they’ve slipped considerably to start 2021-22. Last season saw them lead the league in 3PT% defense, which was not going to be repeated this year and sure enough opponents are hitting 35.4% against the Knicks from behind the arc. Last time out, NY saw history made at their expense with Steph Curry setting a new NBA record for most career three-pointers made. The Knicks lost that game 105-96 as they could only shoot 36.1% from the field. I am expecting both teams’ offensive numbers to pick up tonight. Houston is pretty bad defensively, giving up 113.0 PPG for the year. Three of their last four opponents have scored more than 120. So you’ve got to like the Knicks’ chances of putting up a high number this evening. Julius Randle had a 25-point second half vs. the Warriors, so he's the player to watch. I know the Rockets are playing short-handed (top four scorers were all out last night), but this is the NBA and teams almost always find ways to score. The Over is 6-0 when Houston is in the second night of a back to back. 10* Over Knicks/Rockets |
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12-15-21 | Hornets v. Spurs UNDER 227 | Top | 131-115 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Hornets/Spurs (8:35 ET): San Antonio has a real “imbalance” when it comes to Over/Unders at home vs. on the road. The Over is 10-1 so far in Spurs’ home games. But when the team hits the road, they are 10-1 Under. They are at home tonight, facing a Charlotte team whose games - on average - are the highest scoring in the NBA (231.5 PPG). This has led the oddsmakers to set the highest O/U line for any Spurs’ game this season. While there is an inherent risk playing the Under with the Hornets team, I believe that’s the way to go tonight. While San Antonio has the highest Over rate in the league at home, Charlotte is #2. But this is obviously a road game for the Hornets and the Over is more “modest” 9-8 when they are away. The Hornets had gone Over in eight straight games overall before losing 120-96 in Dallas on Monday. What’s key to note with Charlotte right now is that they have been playing short-handed due to COVID protocols. Initially, they stayed competitive, but then we saw what happened last time out. After a poor start to the season, the Spurs have been better of late. They are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in their L9 games. They last played on Sunday when they turned in a solid defensive effort, holding New Orleans to 97 points on 42.6% shooting. That was just the second Spurs’ home game to go Under this season. The fact this is the highest O/U line for any San Antonio game this year is notable. Will their starting five combine to score 88 points again, as they did in the last game? Unlikely. 8* Under Hornets/Spurs |
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12-15-21 | Middle Tennessee v. Ole Miss OVER 133.5 | Top | 52-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Middle Tennessee/Ole Miss (8:30 ET): Though the last six Ole Miss games have all stayed Under the total, I like this one to go Over. The Rebels are coming off back to back horrendous shooting efforts. Despite beating Memphis 67-63 on December 4th, the Rebels shot just 35.3% in that game. Then, in Atlanta over the weekend, it was a disastrous performance with 27.4% shooting in a 71-48 loss to Western Kentucky. But now Ole Miss is back in Oxford (where they are 5-0 and averaging 78.0 PPG). Expect the scoring to increase in this one. The Rebels better be scoring tonight. Because they are facing a Middle Tennessee team that comes in averaging 80.1 PPG. The Blue Raiders are 8-2 straight up and there’s been just one game all season where they failed to score at least 71 points. In the last game, MTSU went to Tenn-Martin and came out on top 84-75. That was actually the second win over the Skyhawks this month. They won 73-61 in Murfreesboro back on the 1st. In between, there was a loss at Murray State where the Blue Raiders surrendered 93 points (no overtime!). Neither of these teams are all that efficient on offense, but Middle Tennessee likes to “play fast” and thus there should be plenty of possessions in tonight’s contest. Again, the real key is that I expect Ole Miss to shoot MUCH better than they have in their last two games. The Over is 5-0 the last five times Middle Tennessee has been an underdog, four of those games coming on the road. A huge key to the Blue Raiders’ success is that they get to the free throw line 22 times per game, more than any other Conference USA squad. 10* Over Middle Tennessee/Ole Miss |
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12-14-21 | Warriors v. Knicks OVER 211.5 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
8* Over Warriors/Knicks (7:35 ET): So, it is a virtual lock that tonight Steph Curry will break Ray Allen’s NBA record for most three-pointers made. Curry could not have asked for a bigger stage as the Warriors will visit Madison Square Garden to play the Knicks on TNT. With history about to be made, expect the Warriors (Curry in particular) to come out firing. As a team, they were just 8 of 30 from three-point range in last night’s 102-100 win over Indiana. Curry was 5 of 15 and now needs only three more threes to surpass Allen. He’ll make a lot more than three tonight as it should be a big offensive night. The Knicks were a surprise team last year, finishing 41-31, good for 4th place in the Western Conference. A big reason for their success was leading the league in 3-pt FG% defense. They haven’t been nearly as good this year at defending the three-point arc and as a result, the Knicks enter tonight’s showdown with a 12-15 SU record and are just 12th in the Eastern Conference. Having lost three straight and six of their last seven games, there’s much work to be done in the Big Apple. I do think the home team will have a bigger offensive night than expected here. Golden State was fortunate that Indiana shot only 23.3% from three last night. New York, who shoots 36.0% from three for the year, should do a lot better than that. I know the Knicks are off B2B sub-100 point games and the Warriors have been an “Under machine” thus far. (Under is 20-7 in all GS games). But even if the Knicks only score 100 here, I think it’s reasonable to expect 110+ from the Warriors and that means the game goes Over. 8* Over Warriors/Knicks |
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12-13-21 | Wizards v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Wizards/Nuggets (9:05 ET): After a brief stop back home, the Wizards are back out on the road Monday to start what will be a six-game trip that takes them to X-Mas. Saturday’s return home did not go well as the Wiz lost 123-98 to the Jazz. That was their fourth loss in the last five games and fifth in the last seven. Believe it or not, Washington was actually up 51-50 at the half. But their defensive effort over the final 24 minutes left a lot to be desired and it was the fifth Over in the last six games for the Wiz. Denver is on a 10-1 Over run. Their scoring has been way up of late as they’ve averaged 113.6 points the last five games. At the same time, the Nuggets have also allowed 111.4 PPG those last five contests. However, all of their games this month have been on the road. This will be Denver’s 1st home game since 11/26. What’s notable about this is that the Nuggets allow only 98.7 PPG. I also expect their recent shooting to “cool off” after such a long road trip. Denver only scores 103.5 PPG at home. So this O/U line is much higher than the combined average number of points scored here at the Pepsi Center this season, which is 202.2 per game. Washington only averages 102.7 PPG on the road. Their number of points allowed has gone up recently, but for the season the Wizards still are allowing only 107.4 PPG. Kyle Kuzma (COVID list) won’t play for Washington tonight while Denver is dealing with multiple absences. 10* Under Wizards/Nuggets |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army UNDER 35.5 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
10* Under Navy/Army (3:00 ET): No surprise here. Over the last 16 College Football seasons, the Under is a preposterous 38-9 when two of the three service academies (Army, Navy, Air Force) face off. That includes a 2-0 mark in 2021 as Army’s game vs. Air Force ended up as a 21-14 win (with overtime!) while Navy’s game vs. Air Force was a 23-3 loss. The O/U lines for those respective games vs. the AFA were a little higher than what we’ve got to work with here, but I’m still sticking with the Under. That’s because taking the Under when Army plays Navy may be the most surefire bet in the sport. It’s cashed 10 straight years and 17 of the last 21. Last year’s 15-0 Army win was the lowest-scoring edition in recent history, but even so, three of the last four meetings have seen 27 or fewer points scored. It’s not difficult to understand why. With both teams running the triple option, the clock is almost always moving as you don’t have to worry about too many incompletions. Both defenses are also uniquely suited to stop, or at least slow down, the triple-option as they face it in practice every day. In the case of Navy, they are only averaging 3.91 yards per carry. So this should be an “easy day at the office” for an Army defense that is allowing just 3.65 yards per carry. The Midshipmen also only average 20.4 PPG. That number was a lot lower before they managed to score 38 and 35 points in the final two regular season games. Before that, they’d only topped 20 twice! Even Army’s offensive production was halted somewhat down the stretch. In four of the last seven games, the Black Knights ran for less than 3.7 yards per carry. The exceptions were Bucknell (FCS), UMass (worst team in FBS) and Wake Forest (poor defense). 10* Under Navy/Army |
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12-10-21 | Pistons v. Pelicans UNDER 212 | Top | 93-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Pistons/Pelicans (8:05 ET): Two teams whose games have been higher scoring than usual of late collide in the Big Easy on Friday. Both the Pistons and Pelicans are off overtime losses, which at least partly explains some of the added scoring we’ve seen of late. Detroit went down at home to Washington on Wednesday, losing 119-116 on a buzzer beater. That was the Pistons’ 10th straight loss, a streak which goes back to 11/19. As for New Orleans, their OT loss on Wednesday was also at home, 120-114 to the Nuggets. I’m looking for this game not to be as high scoring though and will jump on the Under. Detroit shot 54.2% from three-point range against Washington (and still lost!). Do not expect them to come anywhere close to that percentage tonight. Not only are the Pistons shooting only 31% from behind the arc for the season, but they are 29th in overall scoring (99.8 PPG) and offensive efficiency (ahead of only OKC in both categories). Plus they are 30th (i.e. last) in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Over the last nine games, the Pistons have not scored more than 106 points in regulation. Four times they’ve been held below 100 points. New Orleans averages just 103.7 PPG for the year, but the L5 games have seen them score 111.8 PPG. Again, going to OT on Wednesday partially explains the increase in scoring. There was also a win over the Clippers where the Pelicans scored 123 points. But just like the Pistons, you can’t expect this level of scoring to continue. New Orleans is bottom five in both offensive efficiency and effective field goals percentage. It was a lot of turnovers on Wednesday (25) that led to them giving up 120 points. They won’t be that careless again, nor will Detroit shoot 51% overall like Denver did. Can’t see the Pelicans matching their own 52.2% shooting from the last game either and the Under is 4-0 the L4 times they’ve been home chalk. 10* Under Pistons/Pelicans |
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12-08-21 | Bulls v. Cavs OVER 210.5 | Top | 92-115 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Bulls/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): Chicago has won and covered four straight, but tonight they will be without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, who is in the league’s “health and safety protocols” due to COVID-19. DeRozan, the league’s fourth leading scorer at 26.4 PPG, is a significant loss to the Bulls. However, they did just score 109 points without him in a win over Denver on Monday. Tonight, I expect they’ll easily crack the 100-point barrier once again. With a low total, that means I’m going Over in this one. Cleveland, like Chicago, is another surprising team. The Cavs enter Wednesday with a 13-12 SU record and are 8th in the East. That may not sound all that impressive, but when you consider how moribund this franchise has been in the “non-LeBron years” the last decade-plus, it’s certainly an improvement. The Cavs had their own four-game win streak snapped on Sunday with a 109-108 loss to the Jazz. Then they went down to another of the league’s top teams, Milwaukee, 112-104 on Monday. That snapped a 7-game ATS win streak. The Bulls are a perfect 6-0 Over this season after holding their previous opponent to 100 points or less. That’s the situation they are in here, coming off the aforementioned win over Denver. Chicago is averaging 110.2 PPG on the road this year. While a big part of that is DeRozan, the team can still turn to the likes of Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, all of whom have turned in big games lately. For Cleveland, this is a rare instance of being favored (just 3rd time all season). Having scored 104+ points in eight consecutive games, they’ve been just fine offensively without Collin Sexton. I think this is a case where oddsmakers have set the O/U line far too low, based on a couple of absences. Both teams will be fine. 10* Over Bulls/Cavaliers |
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12-06-21 | New Mexico State v. New Mexico UNDER 151.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
10* Under New Mexico State/New Mexico (9:00 ET): I’m going to try with the Under for a second time here with New Mexico State. Back on Friday, I was unsuccessful as the Aggies and UTEP combined for 141 points, six more than what the oddsmakers projected. Notable though is that the number of combined points was lower than the O/U line for tonight’s game against New Mexico. Now that’s understandable given these two teams went to a 101-94 final last week. But the average number of total points in NMSU games this season is still only 148.4 PPG. For more than half the game, NMSU and UTEP looked to be headed for an Under. I was feeling good when the game was 34-34 with just over 15 minutes remaining. But those final 15 minutes saw both teams more than double their scoring. The Aggies finished the game by shooting an unreal 56.6% from the field. They also hit 40% from three-point range for the second straight game. I just can’t see them matching those numbers again tonight. New Mexico has not played since the first meeting with NMSU. Aside from a 73-58 loss to Towson, virtually every Lobos’ game has been high-scoring. You can also say the same for NMSU as their last six games have all gone Over the total. But this is likely to close as the highest O/U line for either team this season. The number was 143.0 last week, so it’s a substantial increase from that. The Under is a combined 20-6 in these teams last 26 Monday games. 10* Under New Mexico State/New Mexico |
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12-05-21 | Jaguars v. Rams OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
8* Over Jaguars/Rams (4:05 ET): Both the Jaguars and Rams come into this Week 13 matchup on three-game SU losing streaks. However, there are longer streaks at play as well. The Rams have failed to cover five straight games, a streak that dates back to mid-October. The Jaguars have gone Under in six straight games. I know we’re talking about one of the worst offenses in the NFL here (Jacksonville) going cross-county to face a Rams team that’s had some poor offensive outings of late. But I’ve got a “hunch” that this one is set to go Over. The Rams should score a lot of points in this game. The Rams scored 28 last week against the Packers. The problem is they also gave up 36. The last three games, again all losses, have seen the Rams’ defense allow an average of 31.7 PPG. While they aren’t likely to give up that many here to the Jaguars, I think they’ll still give up enough to allow this game to go Over the total. Though they only scored 16 points against the Titans and 10 against the 49ers, there’s really nothing “wrong” with the Rams offense. As I mentioned above, they put up 28 points and 5.8 yards per play last week. Los Angeles comes into this game averaging 27.2 PPG and will be facing a Jacksonville defense that gives up 27.0 PPG on the road. These teams play only once every four years, but for what it’s worth, the Over is 4-0 the L4 meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Rams |
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh UNDER 71.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
8* Under Wake Forest/Pittsburgh (8:00 ET): This isn’t the ACC Championship Game anyone expected as it will be the first to not involve Clemson since 2014. It was Wake Forest unseating the reigning six-time ACC Champions in the Atlantic Division, even though they lost to the Tigers 48-27 (in Death Valley) two weeks ago. Over in the Coastal, Pittsburgh took advantage of disappointing seasons from North Carolina and Miami to win its second division title in four years. Both teams enter the game at 10-2 straight up, though Pitt has been better ATS (9-3 vs. 6-5-1). It’s just the second 10-win season ever for WF and the first since 1981 for Pitt. Everyone, including the oddsmakers, is expecting a high-scoring game here in Charlotte. Both offenses are in the top four nationally by averaging just over 42 PPG. Last night’s C-USA Title game had a similarly high total and those teams (Western Kentucky & UTSA) blew past the number. But I expect this game, which is not being played indoors, to go a little differently. This could close as the highest O/U line for any Pitt game under HC Pat Narduzzi. The previous high (72) was the game vs. North Carolina on November 11th and the final score in that one ended up being just 30-23. Prior to last night’s C-USA shootout, taking the Under was quite profitable this College Football season when the O/U line is 70 points or higher. I cashed the Under in last year’s ACC Championship Game (Clemson-Notre Dame) when the number wasn’t quite as high. I think Pitt’s defense is going to make a surprising number of stops in this game while their offense has failed to top 34 points in five of the last seven games. There’s going to be plenty of points scored here, but not as many as the oddsmakers are calling for. With the “world” on the Over, I’m going the other way. 8* Under Wake Forest/Pittsburgh |
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12-04-21 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 220 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Bulls/Nets (7:35 ET): These are the two top teams in the Eastern Conference right now. With Brooklyn, that’s not a surprise as they came into the season as the consensus top team in the East (even with the status of Kyrie Irving). Chicago has been a surprise as they are 15-8 SU and just a 1.5 games behind the Nets. This is the best start by any Bulls team since 2015-16 and it includes an impressive 23-point win over the Nets (at home) last month. The Bulls come into tonight off B2B wins. Brooklyn played last night and was able to outlast the pesky Timberwolves 110-105. But they did not cover the 7.5-point spread. The game also stayed Under despite a combined 65 free throw attempts from the two teams. That high number of FTs was offset by poor three-point shooting, especially from the Nets, who were just 6 of 23 from behind the arc. I expect them to improve - dramatically - on that number here. The Over had been 5-1 in the Nets’ L6 games prior to last night with five straight seeing at least 220 total points scored. Chicago’s last two games have both been high-scoring as they beat the Hornets 133-119 and the Knicks 119-115. The Bulls have displayed very good three-point shooting so far, making 37% of their attempts from behind the arc. That percentage is even higher on the road. Looking at the Nets’ 3-pt defense, I just don’t think they can continue to hold teams to 30.9%. Brooklyn didn’t shoot well in the previous meeting with Chicago (39.5%) while the Bulls were only 29.0% from three. I think those percentages will be improved tonight. 10* Over Bulls/Nets |
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12-03-21 | New Mexico State v. UTEP UNDER 136 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* Under New Mexico St/UTEP (8:00 ET): New Mexico State has gone Over in each of its last five lined games, including a wild 101-94 home loss to rival New Mexico (that did NOT go to overtime) earlier in the week. The Aggies will rematch the Lobos in Albuquerque on Monday. There’s a chance they might be looking ahead to that rematch, but regardless I expect tonight’s game in El Paso to be a lot lower-scoring than recent NMSU contests. This is primarily due to the fact the home team (UTEP) is allowing just 59.3 PPG this season. Take the Under. At home, UTEP is allowing just 53.7 PPG. They’ve played four games here so far and none of the opponents have been able to score more than 57 points. Now, none of those opponents were all that formidable (two were non-DI teams), but it’s not as if New Mexico State is some kind of juggernaut either. This will be the Aggies’ first “true” road game of the season. They’ve played three neutral site games so far and one of them (against Utah State) saw them held to just 58 points UTEP is just 236th in points per possession, so I wouldn’t count on them scoring very many points Friday night. It was just two games ago, here at home, they finished with 40 points in a loss to UC Riverside (where the Miners were 4.5-point favorites!). Throw in the fact that NMSU doesn’t exactly play at the fastest tempo (276th) and you’ve got the perfect recipe here for their Over streak to be halted. The Under is 35-17 in UTEP’s last 52 home games, including 6-2 the L8 when they were a dog. 10* Under New Mexico St/UTEP |
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12-02-21 | Thunder v. Grizzlies UNDER 212.5 | Top | 79-152 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under Thunder/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): While I did cash an Over ticket involving the Thunder last night, that required a 70-point fourth quarter with 41 points coming from the opposition. Losing two straight times to the Rockets (who have the worst record in the Western Conference) should tell you “all you need to know” about the current state of OKC, who has now lost seven in a row (five by seven points or less). It is highly unlikely that they will match last night’s 110 point effort here as that was the team’s highest scoring game in more than a month. Memphis had a seven-game Over run halted on Tuesday when they beat Toronto 98-91. Expect more low-scoring games to follow now that the Grizzlies are playing without leading scorer Ja Morant. The Grizz have not been anything close to “stout” at the defensive end (they allow the most points per possession in the league), but tonight they are facing the league’s second lowest scoring team (OKC averages only 99.0 PPG), so Under is going to be the call here. The Thunder’s paltry scoring average dips even further on the road, down to 95.2 PPG. But the one thing that they do well is holding teams to 43.9% shooting. They’ve even been a bit better defensively when on the road (42.5 FG% allowed), which is why the Under is 8-2 in Thunder away games this season. Last night, they held Houston under 30 points in each of the first three quarters before imploding in the fourth. I don’t see that happening again. Considering you’ve got the second-lowest scoring team in the league against a Morant-less Grizzlies, I just don’t see many points being scored in this one. 10* Under Thunder/Grizzlies |
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12-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 213.5 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
10* Over Rockets/Thunder (8:05 ET): You’ve got two bad teams here, meeting for the second time in three days and the fourth time this year. None of the previous three encounters have been particularly close. The home team has won all three times. It was the Rockets prevailing 102-89 on Monday, just 12 days after losing 101-89 in Oklahoma City. The teams also met in the second game of the season and that was the biggest blowout of all with the Rockets winning 124-91. In addition to every game being a blowout, all three previous meetings also stayed Under the total. In that regard, I look for a different story tonight. Houston has not won a road game all season. They are 0-11 SU away from home, though they have covered the number five times. But they enter Wednesday’s game not just off a win over OKC, but on a three-game SU win streak. Now that was preceded by a 15-game losing skid, so you shouldn’t get too excited. The 89 points they allowed to the Thunder on Monday was a season-low. But on the road, the Rockets are giving up 113.0 PPG. Don’t forget that two games ago, they were involved in a wild 146-143 final with Charlotte. Yes, the game went to OT. But there were still 270 combined points scored in regulation. On the road, don’t expect the same defensive effort we saw Monday. OKC has lost six in a row, though they had covered the spread in each of the five losses prior to going down in Houston 48 hours ago. The Thunder are obviously not a great team offensively, but you have to expect them to shoot better than the 35.6% we saw on Monday night. That game saw them go 7 for 43 (!) from three-point range, an absolutely abysmal number that will be improved upon - likely by a lot - tonight. Each of the previous three Houston-OKC encounters have seen both sides put up a ton of 3PA. I look for BOTH teams to shoot the ball better here than they did Monday (Houston was only at 41.7%). 10* Over Rockets/Thunder |
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12-01-21 | Southern Illinois v. Evansville OVER 121.5 | Top | 54-52 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10* Over S Illinois/Evansville (7:00 ET): We’re gonna try with the Over here on a Southern Illinois team that has seen the Under hit in all six of its games this season. The reason being this is a new “low watermark” for an SIU O/U. The previous low was 125.0. Now that game saw them score only 47 points against Northeastern, but I have to imagine the Salukis are going to shoot better than 29.6%, which is what they did vs. Northeastern. Most of the O/U lines for SIU games this season have been north of 130.0. I see some value here. Similarly, Evansville has had just one O/U line lower than tonight. They went Over (119.5) in that game, which ended up being a 69-60 loss to Akron. The Purple Aces followed that up by defeating Eastern Illinois on Sunday, 70-54 as 6.5-point road favorites. Five of their last six games would have gone Over tonight’s total, the exception being a game vs. Vermont when they shot just 32.7%. Let the record show that Evansville is 5-1 to the Over the L6 times they’ve been a home dog, a role they are in tonight. The last time these MVC teams played was December 28th of last year and that ended up being a very high scoring game, 84-72, with Evansville (+8) getting the surprise win in Carbondale. They shot 55.3% from the floor, including 17 of 29 from three-point range. While I don’t think the Purple Aces are going to shoot the ball that well again here, look for them to make enough shots that this game does go Over the total, which will be a first for SIU this year. Evansville is shooting the ball much better at home so far. 10* Over Southern Illinois/Evansville |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Seattle/Washington (8:15 ET): Since Russell Wilson returned to the lineup, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 SU and scored just 13 points. That point total is a little misleading though as Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone against Green Bay. With the season very much on the brink heading into tonight, look for Wilson and the Seattle offense to “pick up the pace” against a Washington defense that has mostly struggled in 2021. Through the first four games of the season, the Football Team had the worst third down defensive efficiency in league HISTORY! They are still giving up 26.7 PPG. Washington’s offense has gotten better though, specifically QB Taylor Heinicke, who will be seeking to be the first QB to throw 3+ TD passes in B2B games for the franchise since Kirk Cousins did it back in 2016. The Football Team is coming off back to back upset wins, the first a real shocker as they were 10-point dogs and beat the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers 29-19. Last week, they went to Carolina and won 27-21. Seattle’s defense was very poor at the start of the season. While it’s gotten somewhat better over the last month or so, it is still giving up over 400 YPG for the year. So I’m looking for this game to go Over the total. Yes, Seattle games are 8-1-1 to the Under (8-2 for some) this season, but I really do think this is the game where we start to see the “old Wilson.” As for Heinicke, he’s thrown for more than 245 yards in six of his nine games. The Over the L4 times that Washington has been off a SU win. 10* Over Seattle/Washington |
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11-27-21 | Texas State v. Arkansas State OVER 62 | Top | 24-22 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
9* Over Texas St/Arkansas St (2:00 ET): Neither of these two teams are going to a bowl. Texas State is 3-8 SU after losing five of six. The Bobcats’ lone win during that stretch was 27-19 over LA Monroe. I do not expect them to deliver a solid effort on the defensive side of the ball Saturday. Outside of San Marcos, Texas State is giving up 36.8 PPG. Of course, that’s not very far off from what they allow overall (34.0 PPG). Three of the last four opponents have gone for 35 or more points. Arkansas State is 2-9 SU and their only win in the last seven games was against LA Monroe, 27-24 as a three-point road dog. The last six Red Wolves games have all stayed Under the total. But it’s important to note that all six O/U lines were higher than this one. ASU has an even worse defense than Texas State, one that gives up a shocking 40.8 PPG at home. They allow 39.9 PPG overall. There have been four different games this year where the Red Wolves allowed at least 50 points. When these teams played last year, it was a wild 47-45 Texas State win in San Marcos as a four-point home dog. Arkansas State is a much more prolific offensive team in Jonesboro this season, averaging over 30 PPG here at home. Texas State allowed five TD passes and almost 500 yards total to Coastal Carolina last week. The last 10 times Arkansas State has been favored, the Over is 7-3. 9* Over Texas St/Arkansas St |
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11-26-21 | Suns v. Knicks OVER 216 | Top | 118-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Knicks (7:05 ET): If you thought the Suns were going to “regress” after LY’s surprising run to the NBA Finals, perhaps it’s time to reassess. Phoenix is the hottest team in the league right now, having won 14 in a row. They are 15-3 overall. The only team with a better record right now is Golden State, who is 16-2 SU. The Suns have won six in a row on the road, however the last two away games - a 115-111 win over San Antonio and 120-115 win over Cleveland - were both close against subpar opposition. That should give the Knicks some semblance of hope heading into tonight’s contest. New York is off what it should consider a big win as they beat the Lakers 106-100 on Tuesday. Although LeBron James did not play for LA in that one, the Knicks will gladly take the win after they had lost four of their previous six games. But what I’m choosing to focus on here is the fact the last eight Knicks games have all stayed Under the total. That’s quite the streak. But it can’t last forever and I’d be really surprised if we don’t start to see Knicks’ games get a bit higher scoring. The L5 have seen them average only 101.0 PPG. That’s down from 107.2 for the season. They are allowing just 99.2 points the L5 games, down from 106.4 for the season. Phoenix can definitely score. They come in averaging 112.3 points per game (tied for #2 in the league) and their L4 games have all gone Over the total. The Suns have shot better than 50% in each of those last four games. So they really are the ideal opponent for this Knicks’ Under streak to come to an end. Both times these teams met last season, the end result was an Over. There were 228 and 233 total points scored in those two games. The Over is 5-0 the previous five times the Knicks have been a home dog. 10* Over Suns/Knicks |
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11-26-21 | Boise State v. San Diego State OVER 44 | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
8* Over Boise St/San Diego St (12:00 ET): Both of these teams are trying to nail down a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. It is highly unlikely that they’ll see each other again in a rematch next week. Boise State is in a three-way tie for the Mountain Division lead and the other two teams (Air Force & Utah State) are decided favorites this week. A loss for San Diego State potentially drops them into a tie with Fresno State, who plays Thursday and holds the head to head tiebreaker. So unless Fresno State gets upset Thursday, both Boise & SDSU have a lot on the line Friday. Note the VERY early start time for this game. Kickoff will be at 9 AM PT. That was done for TV purposes. It will be interesting to see if the early kickoff has any adverse effect on the players. I think the two defenses may not be as sharp as they usually are. If so, look for this game to fly past the total. Boise State comes in averaging 30.4 PPG on the year. San Diego State averages 30.5 PPG at home. Something that I should point out here is just how lucky the Aztecs have been this season. They are 5-0 SU in one-score games. They may be rated #21 by CFP committee, but my power ratings have them MUCH lower. Boise State has gone Under in six straight games. That, and the fact they are playing San Diego State, is why this O/U line is so low. But remember what I said earlier about the two offenses. Boise has averaged 32 PPG during its current four-game win streak. But three of the four teams they beat up on aren’t very strong offensively. San Diego State put up 28 points last week in a win over UNLV. This is the lowest O/U line of the season for any Boise State game. Again, I think the respective defenses are “caught napping” after Thanksgiving and this turns into a surprisingly high-scoring game. 8* Over Boise St/San Diego St |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
10* Under Bills/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Bills and Saints come into Thanksgiving off blowout losses. In fact, the Saints have lost three straight games (first time since 2016). Two of those losses were close, but last week’s wasn’t as they fell 40-29 to the Eagles. But that was a bit of a misleading final as Philly had three scoring drives start in Saints’ territory + a pick six. Also, New Orleans had two TD drives start inside the Eagles’ 40-yard line. So the fourth straight Saints game to Over the total was pretty misleading all-around. The Bills’ 41-15 loss to the Colts was also a little misleading. Like the Saints, the Bills also had a slight edge in yards per play on Sunday. That sounds crazy considering the scores, but it is true. Buffalo was also done in by turnovers. They had four (and didn’t force any), which led to three Indianapolis touchdown drives, two of which started deep in Buffalo territory. As for the Bills offense, there were two missed field goals, but it was also the second time in three weeks that they scored 15 points or less. That’s not good. These two defenses surrendering 40+ points is quite uncharacteristic. In fact, the number of points allowed last week were season-worsts for both teams. The Bills defense still has given up the fewest number of total yards in the league and also ranks second in scoring (17.6 PPG allowed). Most of New Orleans’ points last week came in the fourth quarter during “garbage time” and it’s looking unlikely that they will have RB Alvin Kamara for this game. Trevor Siemian has proven to be a below-average QB. As for the Saints’ defense, the number of rush yards it allowed last week was highly uncharacteristic (though it was the second year in a row that the Eagles shredded them on the ground). Entering that game, New Orleans was #1 in the league at stopping the run. The Under has hit each of the last six years in the primetime Thanksgiving window. Make it seven in a row. 10* Under Bills/Saints |
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11-22-21 | Giants v. Bucs UNDER 50 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under Giants/Buccaneers (8:15 ET): Tampa Bay’s defense has given up 65 points the last two weeks as the team has lost B2B games for the first time since the midpoint of last season. The good news for Bucs fans is that after suffering those B2B losses last season, the team didn’t lose another game and went on to win the Super Bowl. I wouldn’t be all that confident in a similar run taking place here in 2021, but I do think at the very least the defense gets back on track Monday night vs. the Giants. The Giants, who are coming out of their bye week, are one of nine teams in the league that averages fewer than 20.0 PPG. It was a 23-16 win over the Raiders two weeks ago, but the touchdown that decided that game came from the defense (pick-six). Only twice in its last seven games has the Giants offense accounted for more than 20 points. Part of that has to do with RB Saquon Barkley being out, but let’s not look past the fact that Daniel Jones (0-7 SU in primetime games) is a below average NFL QB. One encouraging sign for the Giants is that their defense has allowed a total of just 39 points the last three games. A struggling Washington defense held Tom Brady & the Bucs offense to just 19 points last week, so I don’t see why the Giants can’t turn in yet another solid defensive effort tonight. On the flip side, Tampa Bay’s defense is giving up only 18.5 PPG at home. Both losses they recently suffered were on the road. Including last week, the Bucs are 4-0 Under off their previous four losses. 10* Under Giants/Buccaneers |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): Both of these teams have been going Under quite a bit recently. That includes a head to head meeting with one another, back on the 17th, which was won by Charlotte 97-87. This recent rash of Unders is a little surprising, at least for the Hornets, who rank 29th (next to last) in the NBA in scoring defense, giving up 113.7 PPG. So I think that we’re “due” for an Over tonight. Not surprisingly, the total for tonight’s rematch is several points lower than where it was for last week’s meeting. It’s also on track to be the lowest O/U line for any Charlotte game this season. The previous low was 216.5 for a game vs. Indiana on Friday. Interestingly enough, that was the ONLY time in the Hornets’ last six games that the Over hit. The final score was 121-118. So I’m seeing some real value on this number. Both teams are off to surprisingly good starts this season. Especially the Wizards, who are 7-1 SU at home where they are averaging 112.0 PPG. That’s a dramatic increase from how many points they are scoring on the road. In addition, you’ve got to figure they’ll shoot better than they did last week vs. Charlotte when they finished at just 36.7% from the field. The Wiz were just 8 of 42 from three-point range in that game! 10* Over Hornets/Wizards |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Dolphins/Jets (1:00 ET): Well, I certainly wish the Jets would have started the archaic Joe Flacco last week when I had the Under in their game vs. Buffalo. Now, maybe it would have been a “moot point” as the Flyboys scored all of seven 17 points anyway. They gave up 45 (to Buffalo) as for the sixth straight time a Jets’ game went Over the total. I’m putting my foot down again this week, saying the streak comes to an end this week against a team that’s far less explosive than Buffalo, that being Miami. Take the Under. I know the Jets’ defense is bad, but they probably should not have given up 45 points last week. There was a disastrous six-minute stretch to open the second half where the Bills scored a TD on their opening possession, then got two more quick touchdowns off Jets’ interceptions. It was the third time in the last four games this Jets’ stop unit gave up 45+ points, something this league has not seen since the 1966 Giants! The good news for this week is that they will be facing Tua Tagovailoa, who has an injured thumb. The Dolphins have topped 22 points just one time in their last seven games. Jets’ HC Robert Salah’s specialty is the defensive side of the ball and he’s got to get this group playing better. But Miami’s defense probably feels pretty good about itself coming into this game. And it should, given it held Baltimore to only 10 points in a shocking Thursday night win last week. I had the Dolphins plus the points in that one and was taken aback by their performance. If they can shut Flacco’s old team down, then they can certainly shut down the 36-year old Flacco quarterbacking what is the league’s seventh lowest scoring offense (17.9 PPG). Four of Miami’s last five games have seen 43 or less total pts scored. This has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring division game. 10* Under Dolphins/Jets |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 59.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Oregon/Utah (7:30 ET): Well, this line should certainly catch your eye. For just the second time ever, we’ve got a Top 3 team getting points against an opponent with two or more losses in the month of November. The only other time this happened was 2010 when underdog Auburn (#2) won 28-27 at Alabama. I do not believe for a second that the Ducks are the third best team in the country, but a win over Ohio State early in the season and the fact they have just one loss (at Stanford in overtime) seems to justify their place among the top four. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ducks end up losing here, but do not want to lay points. Utah currently leads the Pac 12 South, so this could end up being the first of two meetings with Oregon as the teams are on track to meet again in the Pac 12 Championship Game. The Utes are 7-3 SU and on a three-game win streak. They are also on a six-game Over run, putting up a ton of points themselves in the process. Last week it was a 38-29 win over Arizona. But I expect the Utes to struggle to move the ball in this one. Oregon’s defense has allowed an average of just 292.7 yards the last three games and gives up just 22.6 PPG for the season. Not to be overlooked is the fact Utah has allowed an average of only 302.3 yards its last three games. Here in Salt Lake City, they allow just 18.8 PPG. One of the touchdowns that the Utes allowed last week came on a blocked punt. The Under is 6-1 in Oregon’s last seven road games and I’m not convinced the Ducks can continue to convert third downs at their current rate (51.6%!) and this is a pretty high total (2nd highest for Utah all year), given the stakes involved. 8* Under Oregon/Utah |
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11-20-21 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 38 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 41 h 45 m | Show |
9* Over Illinois/Iowa (2:00 ET): The last eight games involving Illinois have all stayed Under the total. Perhaps the “nadir” for Over bettors came when the Fighting Illini took on Penn State, a game that went to NINE overtimes and still stayed Under. None of the Illini’s Big 10 games have seen more than 38 total points scored and this week they are matched up with the team that has the #7 scoring defense in the country, Iowa, who allows only 16.3 PPG. Yet this O/U line is so low that it is just BEGGING to be played Over. For the season, Illinois’ games average 38.9 PPG. Iowa games average 41.0 PPG. Illinois is coming out of a bye, so they’ve had plenty of time to scheme for how they want to attack this Iowa defense. Last week saw the Hawkeyes give up 22 points for the third time in four games. They also allowed 400+ yards for just the second time this season. The Hawkeyes were actually statistically dominated by Minnesota (outgained 409-277), but fortunate to hold the Gophers to three short field goals. Unfortunately though, Illinois won’t have HC Brett Bielema on the sidelines as he’s tested positive for COVID-19. I expect that Bielema’s absence will have a greater effect on the defensive side of the ball for the Illini. Iowa scored 27 last week, it’s most in a game since a 51-14 win over Maryland back on October 1st. Also, don’t discount the Hawkeyes’ defense being able to create takeaways that lead to a score or two. With their lowest O/U line in a game all year, Illinois’ Under streak is due to end here. 9* Over Illinois/Iowa |
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11-19-21 | Ath Bilbao v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
8* Under Athletic Club/Levante (3:00 ET): No side in La Liga has shipped more goals than Levante’s 25. It’s really not even close as Valencia has conceded the second most with 20. Hence, Levante is the only remaining winless team in the table (0-6-7) and currently sits at the foot of table, level with Getafe at six points and a -13 YTD goal differential. Each of the L5 Levante matches have seen three or more total goals scored, but a matchup here with Athletic Club should change that as the Lions have conceded the second fewest number of goals in all of La Liga. Take the Under. Athletic Club currently sits eighth in the table with 18 points and a win Friday would move them into a fifth place tie with Real Betis. Prior to the International Break, Athletic suffered a surprising 1-0 home loss to Cadiz, which snapped a five-match unbeaten run in La Liga. While the Lions have conceded the second fewest number of goals in all of La Liga (8), they have also scored the third fewest (11). The 19 total goals scored in Athletic’s 12 matches are easily the fewest for any La Liga side this season. Levante has actually scored more times than Athletic Club this season, but only one goal more. So we’re looking at two of the bottom five scoring sides in the entire Spanish top flight here. While I think Athletic has been somewhat unlucky to score only 11 goals, at the same time Levante has been a bit unlucky to concede as many as they have. Five of Athletic’s last six fixtures have seen two or fewer total goals scored. 8* Under Athletic Club/Levante |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 47 | Top | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Patriots/Falcons (8:20 ET): The “world” figures to be on New England here and I really can’t blame them. They are off a dominant 45-7 win over Cleveland where three of the TD drives went for 92+ yards. The Pats have won and covered four straight games and thanks to a couple blowouts, they are tied (w/ the Cardinals) for the league’s 2nd best YTD point differential, behind only Buffalo. Bill Belichick’s team is also a perfect 4-0 (straight up) on the road and is going against an Atlanta team that is not only 0-3 SU/ATS at home, but also off a horrendous 43-3 loss to Dallas last week. But I just can’t pull the trigger on a Thursday night road favorite of this size, even if my own power ratings say that it’s probably the right move. Instead, let’s turn to the total. After giving up an 84-yard TD drive on the opening possession, the Patriots’ defense held Cleveland to just 133 total yards the rest of the game. That marked the third time in four weeks that the Pats held their opponent to 13 points or less. Atlanta certainly didn’t do much offensively last week, gaining only 214 total yards and scoring just three points. So it stands to reason that the Falcons won’t be doing much scoring here. They only average 19.8 PPG to begin with and that number actually drops at home, down to 16.3. Making matters worse for the underdog, they are without Calvin Ridley and probably Cordarrelle Patterson (game-time decision). New England’s defense is #2 overall in scoring and allows only 14.5 PPG on the road. So again, don’t expect many points from the Falcons Thursday night. Let’s just hope that it’s an off-night for the Patriots offensively. If so, this should be an easy Under, a bet that has cashed each of the L5 times Atlanta has played on Thursday night. 8* Under Patriots/Falcons |
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11-18-21 | Clippers v. Grizzlies UNDER 221 | Top | 108-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Clippers/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): This will be the second meeting of the year between these teams. Back on October 23rd, the Grizzlies won a high-scoring contest, 120-114 as four-point road underdogs. That was the second game of the season for both teams. The Clippers found themselves at 1-4 SU through five games, but have turned it around in November (despite multiple injuries) by winning eight of their last nine. So Memphis should expect a tougher challenge in this second go-around. It should also be a much lower-scoring game. Take the Under. The sharp decline in scoring, league-wide, has been one of the big stories so far this NBA season. The Clippers are allowing only 102.5 PPG and Tuesday saw them hold San Antonio to just 92 in a comfortable win. With Kawhi Leonard out, Paul George has mostly carried the scoring burden at the offensive end. But he’s also gotten some help from unexpected contributors, such as Luke Kennard and Brandon Boston Jr on Monday. I wouldn’t expect a repeat effort from either of those two tonight. Also, key reserve Terrance Mann is likely still out due to an ankle injury. Memphis poured in a season-high 136 points Monday. But that was against lowly Houston. Six of the Grizzlies’ previous seven games had stayed Under the total. Monday was also only the second time in the last 11 games that the Grizzlies scored more than 108 points. They are more healthy than the Clippers are right now, but don’t expect Memphis to shoot as well as they did in the first meeting. The Under has hit the previous five times they have been an underdog. 10* Under Clippers/Grizzlies |
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11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
8* Under Bowling Green/Miami (8:00 ET): Bowling Green games have followed an “odd” pattern in 2021. The first five games all went Under. At that point, the Falcons were also a perfect 5-0 ATS with a shocking upset win over Minnesota. But I then chose to go with the Over when they hosted Akron and that hit, starting what is now a streak of five straight Overs. BGSU has won just once in conference play. That was two weeks ago at Buffalo, 56-49, a game where they were 13.5-point dogs. Last week saw them lose 49-17 at home to Toledo, a spot where I successfully faded them as 10.5-point underdogs. Miami needs to win out in order to become bowl eligible. Assuming they win here (they are large favorites), that would set up a showdown next week with Kent State to determine the winner of the MAC East. So there’s still a lot for the RedHawks to be playing for at this juncture. The team is 4-0 SU here in Oxford this season after it thumped Buffalo 45-18 (as seven-point favorites) last week. The RedHawks have three losses by five points or less this year, so a case can be made that they are better than their record. While I don’t feel like laying the big number here, the chances of Bowling Green scoring a lot of points in this game seem remote. The Falcons were held under 200 total yards last week by Toledo. Take away that outlier effort against Buffalo two weeks ago and they haven’t scored more than 26 against any FBS opponent all season. Miami’s defense allows just 18.7 PPG at home and Ohio is the only opponent since the start of October to score more than 21 pts against them. I also don’t see the RedHawks coming close to matching their own point total from last week. The Under is 7-1 for Miami the L8 times they’ve been off a game where they scored 40+ points. 8* Under Bowling Green/Miami |
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11-14-21 | Warriors v. Hornets OVER 226.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
10* Over Warriors/Hornets (7:05 ET): For weeks now, I’ve been saying that while the Warriors were clearly ascending back to the top of the NBA pecking order, they would not again reach the heights of their previous championship teams. Well, maybe we need to revisit that thought. Because I’ve got Golden State #1 in my power ratings right now. They’ve won seven straight games coming into Sunday and covered the spread in all seven. Charlotte is a team that will be looking to pull a third consecutive upset tonight. Their last two games have seen them defeat Memphis (as a 4.5 point dog) and New York (as a 2.5 point dog). Prior to those two upset wins, the Hornets did drop five in a row - both SU and ATS. They’re now back at .500, but if I was a betting man (and I am), I’d predict them to finish with a worse record than last year. These teams did meet earlier this month and the Warriors won 114-92. It was an awful shooting night for the Hornets as they made just 37.4% of their FG attempts, including only 10 of 36 from three-point range. Expect them to shoot better tonight as they are at home. The team’s scoring average jumps to 118.2 PPG here in Charlotte. As for Golden State, who has played only three road games so far, they should have no difficulty scoring on what is the league’s 30th ranked scoring defense (116.0 PPG allowed). As a reminder, there are only 30 teams in the league. 10* Over Warriors/Hornets |
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11-14-21 | Seahawks v. Packers OVER 49.5 | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
9* Over Seahawks/Packers (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. I know that they were facing the Jaguars, but Seattle scoring 31 points without Wilson is impressive. In three of the four games this year that Wilson has finished, the Seahawks have put up 28 or more points. So you should expect them to “carry their weight” with this Over play. I also have some concerns about their defense, which gives up more than 400 YPG and was historically bad the first five weeks of the season. Rodgers didn’t practice all week, but the Packers have scored at least 24 points in each of his last seven starts. They average 28.7 PPG at home. Green Bay has gone Under in six straight games, but this matchup has “shootout” written all over it. The Over is 7-3 in the Packers last 10 games after a loss. The last two times that Rodgers and Wilson have met, their teams combined to score 51 total points. I expect even more than that here. 9* Over Seahawks/Packers |
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11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 47.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
9* Under Bills/Jets (1:00 ET): The last five Jets’ games have all gone Over the total. That seems odd given that the Flyboys are 27th in the league in scoring at just 18.0 points per game. But they’ve put up 30+ points in B2B games, including a shocking win over Cincinnati two weeks ago. They’d scored 14 or fewer points in four of the first six games. Now the defense has been shredded the L3 games as it’s given up a total of 130 points! There hasn’t been a single game all year where the Jets held an opponent under 24 points. Now you would think that this figures to be another “long day at the office” for the Jets defense as the Bills pay a visit to MetLife Stadium. However, Buffalo didn’t even get in the end zone last week in an absolutely shocking 9-6 loss to the Jaguars. While I am banking on Josh Allen and company bouncing back here, the Bills defense should also handle its business. Though no one was talking about it after the loss to the Jags, the defense has now allowed 11 points or fewer four times in 2021. Since 2019, Buffalo is 9-1 Under when off a SU loss. That includes 5-0 after their last five losses. A banged up offensive line may mean they won’t score as many points as you think. As for the Jets offense, I know that backup QB Mike White has captured the hearts and minds of the fanbase, but consider me still skeptical. The Bills haven’t allowed any Jets player to run for 100 yards since 2016. Expect that streak to continue here. This is the highest O/U line in any Jets’ game this season. 9* Under Bills/Jets |
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11-13-21 | Arizona State v. Washington OVER 44.5 | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
9* Over Arizona State/Washington (7:00 ET): There are some streaks on the line in this one. If you can believe this, Arizona State has covered the spread every time in the L10 meetings with Washington. The Sun Devils have won eight of those games straight up, though they did lose the last one, 27-20 as an 18.5-point pup back in 2018. But I will instead be focusing on UW’s 5-0 Under run coming into this game. That’s resulted in a VERY low total for this week and I’m choosing to go Over here. There is some controversy here on the Washington sideline as they will be without HC Jimmy Lake, who has been suspended for a week due to an altercation with a player last week. That 26-16 loss to Oregon also cost OC John Donovan his job and it’s easy to see why as the Huskies gained just 166 total yards. But I expect the home team to play hard for its interim coach this week and even have some surprising success on the offensive side of the ball. It won’t take much to help send this one Over. Before holding USC to just 16 points last week, ASU had given up 69 points in its previous two games. While the Sun Devils aren’t likely to give up 30+ this week, we don’t need them to. I say that because last week, they gained 427 yards on offense, 282 of those coming on the road. This is an offense that would have a lot more points to its name if not for eight turnovers the last two games. They have averaged more than 400 YPG the last three weeks. Five of the Sun Devils’ last six games have seen 47+ total points scored. 9* Over Arizona State/Washington |
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11-13-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Troy OVER 48 | Top | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
9* Over UL Lafayette/Troy (3:30 ET): So I tried the Over with ULL last Thursday and was unsuccessful. Really, it was never close as the Ragin Cajuns had to come from behind to defeat Georgia State (at home) 21-17. The total was 53.5. But this offense is averaging quite a bit of yardage for a team that’s gone Under in five straight. The last three games in particular have seen Louisiana move the ball effectively (467 YPG). This is the lowest O/U line of the season for the Sun Belt leaders. Looking to remain perfect in conference play, ULL travels to Troy this week. Their hosts have averaged more than 29 PPG in the L4 games, so they can score. Troy’s last three games have all gone Over and this is one of their lowest O/U lines of the season. It’s not THE lowest (as it is with ULL), but it’s poised to close as the 2nd lowest, only ahead of a 43-point total when they traveled to face South Carolina. The Trojans’ offense should benefit from the fact Louisiana’s defense gives up 25.8 PPG on the road, nearly double what they allow at home. Louisiana turned it over on downs - twice - inside the Georgia State 10-yard line last week, so they easily could have scored more points. Troy put up all 31 of its points last week in the first half, so they can definitely score in bunches. The total the last time these teams met (2019) was 74.5! So it’s far cry from that, two seasons later. I just think it’s time for an Over to hit in a ULL game and the Over is 4-1 in Troy’s last five games vs. teams that have winning records. 9* Over UL Lafayette/Troy |
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11-12-21 | Northern Illinois v. Indiana OVER 139 | Top | 49-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10* Over Northern Illinois/Indiana (7:00 ET): Both teams started their respective 2021-22 seasons with an Under. Now, the fact Northern Illinois’ first game stayed Under was NOT the biggest takeaway, as the Huskies pulled a HUGE upset over Washington, winning 71-64 as 20-point underdogs. Indiana won much closer than expected against Eastern Michigan, 68-62 as 24.5-point favorites. The Hoosiers were up by 20 in the second half, but quickly let that lead slip away and found themselves ahead by just one point with 2:46 to go. I know there are some concerns about “offensive consistency” under new HC Mike Woodson, but you’ve got to expect IU will shoot better from three-point range tonight compared to the 4 of 24 effort we saw in the opener. It’s the defense that I think is likely to regress on Friday. The Hoosiers held Eastern Michigan to a 31.3 FG% and without a field goal for the first 7 ½ minutes of the game. Tonight’s MAC opponent shot a blistering 52.3% from behind the arc in its upset win in Seattle. Now, will they match that number tonight in Bloomington? Probably not. But they also aren’t going to watch their opponent go 3 for 18 from behind the arc like Washington did. This is a lower O/U than either team faced in its respective opener. Indiana had previously been 8-1 to the Over against MAC teams. They’ve gone Under their last five games overall, dating back to the end of last season. That streak ends here. 10* Over Northern Illinois/Indiana |
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11-10-21 | Kent State v. Central Michigan UNDER 75.5 | Top | 30-54 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
8* Under Kent State/Central Michigan (8:00 ET): Kent State is coming off a 52-47 win over Northern Illinois, a game where both teams gained more than 660 total yards. Then you’ve got Central Michigan, who is off a 42-30 win at Western Michigan. Looking at those two scores and deciding to go with the Under here may seem a bit crazy, but there were things that happened in last week’s games that aren’t about to be repeated. This is also a very high O/U line, the highest for either team this season. Kent State, who leads the MAC East with a 4-1 SU conference record, used a 31-point second quarter to defeat Northern Illinois last week. They were actually behind 7-0 after the first. But then came big play after big play. None of the Golden Flashes’ five scoring drives in the 2Q lasted longer than 75 seconds. That is insane. A team that averages only 19.6 PPG on the road isn’t about to do that again this week. They are facing a defense that allows just 22.3 PPG at home this season. The difference in Central Michigan’s 42-30 win last week was the Chippewas returning TWO punts for touchdowns. Just like Kent State’s second quarter performance from last week, multiple special teams touchdowns is not something you can expect on a week by week basis. The Chips have played two straight high scoring games, but before that none of their games this season had seen more than 70 total points scored. Similarly, the Over is 5-0 the L5 meetings between these teams, but none of the last four have seen more than 65 total points scored. Take advantage of an inflated number here. 8* Under Kent State/Central Michigan |
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11-09-21 | Kentucky v. Duke UNDER 148.5 | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
8* Under Kentucky/Duke (9:30 ET): Kentucky and Duke are each off disappointing seasons. The Wildcats were just plain bad in 2020-21, going 9-16 straight up, while the Blue Devils weren’t much better at 13-11. Neither made the NCAA Tournament. Yet the pollsters didn’t hesitate putting both of them in the preseason top 10. That’s a little high from where I sit, but not all that egregious. I’m taking the Under on Opening Night as these two College Basketball “bluebloods” open the season in NYC as part of the State Farm Champions Classic. When I think Duke-Kentucky, I always think back to the all-time great game in 1991 where Christian Laettner hit his famous buzzer beater to send the Blue Devils to the Final Four. I’m a little surprised that the programs have only met three times since 2012. All were early season matchups like this one. The most recent came in 2018 with Duke winning in blowout fashion, 118-84. Needless to say, you shouldn’t expect anywhere close to that many points scored here tonight. Both squads have a lot of new faces. For Kentucky, that’s nothing new. Although this time Coach Cal has leaned heavily on the transfer portal. Coach K recruits just as well (if not better) than Coach Cal and four starters on this team will be freshmen. With all the new faces, I can’t see this being a high-scoring game. Kentucky averaged just 66.6 PPG vs. non-conf teams last year while giving up only 64.9. Duke isn’t going to score 70 points in this game. 8* Under Kentucky/Duke |
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11-07-21 | Hornets v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Under Hornets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have won three in a row, the last two both coming against Minnesota, to square their record away at 4-4 SU for the season. Remember that they are without Kawhi Leonard (and others!), which really leaves the scoring burden on Paul George (27.9 PPG). Now it’s obviously helped that the team is allowing an average of just 98 PPG during its current win streak. The Clips actually had to rally back from down 20 against the T’wolves on Friday, so there was a 40-point swing that took place in that game! Charlotte is not doing a good job defensively so far. They are giving up the most points per game in the league (117.4) and just allowed Sacramento to hit a franchise-record 22 three-pointers on Friday. That game got ugly in a hurry and the Hornets ended up losing by 30, 140-110. I’m expecting a better effort on the defensive end here. I mean, how could it be any worse? It was the second time this season that the Hornets allowed 140 in a game. The other was an overtime loss to Boston. I have to mention that other than those two games where they allowed 140, the Hornets have not allowed more than 114 in any of the other L9 games. I’ll be taking the Under in this one. I just don’t think the Clippers, even with Reggie Jackson shooting well these last three games, have much scoring punch behind George. Charlotte is due to defend the three-point arc better here than they did on Friday. The Clippers don’t shoot the ball particularly well from three-point range, especially at home where they’re just 30%. But they do defend the three-point line well, keeping teams to just 28.5% here at the Staples Center. The Under is 6-2 in all Clippers games so far. 10* Under Hornets/Clippers |
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11-07-21 | Packers v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
8* Over Packers/Chiefs (4:25 ET): Well, some of the luster of this matchup has certainly been lost, eh? Not only is Kansas City just 4-4 SU on the year, but Green Bay is going to play without Aaron Rodgers, who has tested positive for COVID-19. This comes on the heels of an improbable Packers’ victory last Thursday (24-21 at Arizona) where the team was without its top three receivers. Yes, it’s VERY tempting to want to fade GB here (especially because they are on a 7-0 ATS run). But believe it or not, I can’t trust the lousy Chiefs defense laying this many points. So I’ll call for another streak to end - the Pack’s 5-0 Under run. Kansas City is a horrible 4-15 ATS its last 19 games. They did not cover Monday night when they beat the Giants 20-17, nor did they really come close to as 10.5-point favorites. Interestingly, the Chiefs’ last three wins have all been against the NFC East. Last week was the second best defensive effort of the season so far, but KC has allowed 27 or more points six times in 2021. Now, with Rodgers out, can the Packers score that many? Jordan Love, a former 1st round pick, will be the starting QB and he’ll have those top three receivers (Adams, Lazard, Valdes-Scantling) back. So maybe they can. I also have to think that this Chiefs’ offense is due to start scoring more. In three of the last four games they’ve been held to 20 points or less. That’s shocking. I love how much the O/U line has dropped with Rodgers out and think there’s some real nice value on the Over now. Truthfully, I was thinking about taking the Over anyway in this matchup (had Rodgers played). His absence must be accounted for, but I like the Over on a lower number just as much as I did the Over on the higher number with Rodgers in there. 8* Over Packers/Chiefs |
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11-06-21 | Hawks v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Suns (10:05 ET): Two teams that made surprisingly deep playoff runs last summer will collide tonight in Phoenix. Atlanta made just its second EVER appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, losing to eventual champion Milwaukee in six games. Of course, Phoenix’s season also came to an end at the hands of the Bucks, but that was in the NBA Finals (just the second time in their history that the Suns made it that far). At the start of 2021-22, it’s been a bit of a rocky start for both (needless to say what’s going on OFF the court in PHX). But I expect tonight’s game to have some fireworks. The Hawks are just 4-5 SU and coming off an ugly 116-98 loss at home to Utah where they shot just 25% from three point range. I’m aware of the Hawks’ 0-5 ATS road record, but expect them to shoot the ball better tonight. Trae Young was not only just 8 for 20 overall against the Jazz, but he didn’t make a single three (0 for 4). Like a lot of teams right now, Atlanta is struggling to make shots (especially on the road), but I don’t expect that to continue. They are 25th in defensive efficiency and allowing opponents to shoot over 49% the L5 games. Suns’ owner Robert Sarver is currently being investigated by the league for a variety of misconduct, so that’s going to be a distraction. But on the court, the team is 4-3 SU and has won three straight - all here at home. Those three wins have been by an average of 11 PPG, however take note of the fact they came against Cleveland, New Orleans and Houston. Thursday night saw the Suns score a season-high 123 points and they didn’t even shoot that great. The previous four Atlanta-Phoenix matchups have all gone Over with a minimum of 227 total points being scored. 10* Over Hawks/Suns |
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11-06-21 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under UL Monroe/Texas State (3:00 ET): So UL Monroe has seen the Over hit in each of its last five games, three of which have seen the Warhawks surrender 55 or more points themselves. But this week they are up against a Texas State team that just got shutout last week 45-0 (by Louisiana). Texas State barely even mustered 200 total yards in the contest. Now it’s obviously a big change from facing one of the top Sun Belt defenses to one of the worst. But I do not think the Bobcats are capable of putting enough points on the board to get this game Over the total. Case in point, the week before facing Louisiana, Texas State put up only 16 points in a loss to Georgia State. They come in averaging only 21.9 PPG for the year, which ranks 110th in the FBS. They are 109th in yards per game, so at least they're consistent. Over the last two games, they’ve found the end zone only one time. The good news is that the Bobcats’ defense gets a bit of a respite this week. UL Monroe comes in averaging only 22.3 PPG and that number drops to a rather sad 14.7 when playing on the road (as they are here). So, in sum, while neither teams’ defense is very good, the respective offenses may in fact be worse. Something else I noticed is that this is set to be the highest O/U line for any game this season involving UL Monroe, the team that has gone Over five straight times. Five of Texas State’s games have seen less than 60 total points scored. None of the previous three meetings has there been more than 45 total points scored. The Under is 7-3 when UL Monroe is off an ATS loss. 10* Under UL Monroe/Texas State |
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11-06-21 | Illinois v. Minnesota OVER 44 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 6 m | Show |
8* Over Illinois/Minnesota (12:00 ET): There’s a number of teams in College Football that are currently one somewhat improbable streaks. Illinois has gone Under in seven straight games, a run that goes all the way back to the start of September. The only Fighting Illini game this season to go Over the total was the second one, a 37-30 loss to UTSA (who’s still unbeaten, mind you). The opener, which saw Brett Bielema’s team pull a 30-22 upset over Nebraska, pushed. The most “infamous” Illini Under of the bunch came two weeks ago when, despite NINE overtimes, they and Penn State combined for just 38 points. Now, it wasn’t always this way. The Illini’s first three games of the season did average a pretty hefty 58.3 PPG. But it was the start of Big 10 play that brought the downturn in scoring. When facing a conference opponent, Illinois’ games have averaged only 34.5 PPG! That doesn’t include a 24-14 win over Charlotte on Oct 2. Now it should be pointed out that the Fighting Illini have not been facing the top offensive teams from the Big 10. But this week they are taking on a team that has averaged 35 points (by itself) over the L3 games. I have no unearthly idea how Minnesota lost 14-10 to Bowling Green on Sept 25th. What I do know is that the Golden Gophers haven’t lost since. Their only loss besides Bowling Green was the season opener against Ohio State. They scored 41 last week against Northwestern (not easy to do). Now the Gophers did just lose ANOTHER running back (Bryce Williams) to what looks to be a season-ending injury. However, I’m not at all concerned about that. Why? Because the team has had FIVE different RBs go for 100+ yards in a game in 2021! The L2 weeks have seen two freshmen - Thomas and Irving - both go over 100 yards in each game. Illinois’ Under streak ends here. 8* Over Illinois/Minnesota |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Under Jets/Colts (8:20 ET): The Jets are 2-5. That WL record is not nearly as surprising as the two teams that they beat, the Titans and Bengals, who are a combined 11-5 SU. Both Jets’ wins have been by exactly three points (34-31 over Cincy LW and 27-20 over Tennessee in Week 4) and represent their two highest scoring games of the season. The win over the Bengals saw the Jets score 2 TDs in the final five minutes while the win over the Titans required OT. Both wins were also at home. The Jets are still 30th in scoring (16.3 PPG). What I’m saying is that, as a road underdog this week, they probably aren’t going to score many points. Now recent Colts’ games have been high-scoring. Indy is off a painful 34-31 OT loss to the Titans where they blew an early 2 TD lead. That leaves them at 3-5 SU overall and three games off the pace in the AFC South. It’s actually more than a three-game disadvantage they face in the division as they’ve now been swept by Tennessee. Carson Wentz and the offense have scored 30+ points in three consecutive games, but that’s not a streak I see continuing here. It’s interesting that over the L2 weeks, the Colts have averaged just 301 total yards per game. Two touchdowns in the Jets’ game last week vs. the Bengals were scored after drives that started inside the 15-yard line (one for each team). Backup QB Mike White was a nice story for the Jets last week, but I don’t really trust him in his first career road start. After allowing just 21 points total the previous two games, the Colts defense performed better than you think last week. One of Tennessee’s TDs came on an INT return. Of course, Indy also benefited (early in the game) from a turnover, which allowed them to start a TD drive inside the Titans’ 10-yard line. 8* Under Jets/Colts |
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11-04-21 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 215 | Top | 95-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
8* Over Celtics/Heat (8:05 ET): Reports indicate that there was an “emotional” players-only meeting in the Boston locker room ahead of last night’s 92-79 win over Orlando. The Celtics have certainly been an early season “disappointment” as they are still only 3-5 SU even after Wednesday’s victory. Marcus Smart went public in his criticism of teammates Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, leading to the closed door meeting. I guess it worked, at least for a night, but the team better be on the same page for Thursday’s game as they visit Miami to take on what has been a red hot Heat team. Miami has started the year 6-1 SU and outscored opponents by a league-high 16.7 points per game. Their only loss came in the second game of the season, 102-91 at Indiana. All six victories have been by double digits, the closest margin being 13 points! It’s tough to imagine them being able to play any better than they have thus far, especially at the defensive end where they are tops in the NBA in both points allowed and efficiency. They are one of just two teams to be holding their opponents below 100 PPG thus far. I do not see that continuing. But while I expect the Heat defense to regress a bit, look for their three-point shooting to pick up. In three home games, they’ve shot just under 31% from behind the arc. Considering they are at 36.7% from 3PT range for the season, I anticipate a good night from long range here. Miami is no Orlando, whom the Celtics were able to hold to 79 points last night on 32.1% shooting. Boston actually ranks 26th in the league in defensive efficiency so far. But they (meaning the Celtics) should also shoot better than they did last night. 8* Over Celtics/Heat |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 53.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Georgia State/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Louisiana is the “forgotten team” in the Sun Belt. The Ragin Cajuns came into the season ranked #23 in the country. They lost their first game, 38-18, to a Texas team that was also ranked (#21) at the time. Since then, Billy Napier’s team has taken care of business by winning seven in a row, the most impressive victory being a 41-13 thrashing of Appalachian State here in Lafayette. That’s the only time since the Texas loss where the Cajuns have been underdogs. They also roll into Thursday on a five-game Under streak having just blanked Texas State 45-0 on Saturday. Georgia State is 4-4 SU and a double-digit underdog here, but could provide a “test” to their hosts on Thursday night. The Panthers are on a three-game win streak, having defeated LA Monroe, Texas State and rival Georgia Southern all by a TD or more. Two of those wins came on the road. But what is interesting about this Panthers team is that despite a low-scoring 21-14 win last week at Ga Southern, their road games have been significantly higher scoring this season. Four road games have averaged 61.3 total PPG and that number was obviously much higher before LW’s win. Interestingly enough, though it was a low-scoring final, Ga Southern and Georgia State did combine for more than 850 yards of total offense. The Georgia State defense was exceptionally lucky to force THREE turnovers when backed inside the red zone, two interceptions and a goal line stand. A Louisiana offense that puts up 40.5 PPG at home will not be easy to stop and the good fortune GSU’s defense had last week is not likely to repeat itself here. I know that the Ragin Cajuns have a good defense, but they are facing a team that has put up 482.7 YPG the last 3 weeks! The last two meetings have seen these teams combine for 58 and 65 total points. 10* Over Georgia State/Louisiana |
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11-03-21 | Hornets v. Warriors OVER 225 | Top | 92-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
8* Over Hornets/Warriors (10:05 ET): Golden State has stayed Under in all of its last five games. My guess is that they could care less as they’ve ascended back to the top of the Western Conference, a place they were accustomed to before nose diving the L2 seasons. The Dubs have yet to be beaten in regulation this season as their only loss came in OT to Memphis, 104-101, last Thursday. (It just so happens. At 5-1, they are just a half-game back of Utah entering Wednesday for 1st place in the West. Charlotte started its season 3-0, but has since dropped three of five. They very nearly erased a big 4Q deficit against Cleveland at home on Monday, but still came up three points short in a 113-110 loss. The Hornets were down 17 with just seven minutes to go and it’s worth pointing out that they’ve trailed by double digits in all but one game this season. Turnovers were the problem vs. Cleveland, at least in the first half, They also didn’t shoot the ball particularly well through the first three quarters. The good news here (for the Hornets) is that they come in leading the NBA in 3-point FG% (41.1). The Warriors are no slouch in that department either as they are making 38.1% of their attempts from behind the arc (40.7 at home). So I’m anticipating a good old fashioned “shootout” tonight in San Francisco and for that Golden State Under streak to come to an end. Six of Charlotte’s eight games have gone Over. The Warriors, who have not played since Saturday, are 4-0 Over the L3 seasons when playing with three or more days rest. 8* Over Hornets/Warriors |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo OVER 52 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Eastern Michigan/Toledo (7:30 ET): If it’s November, that means it’s time for some good ol’ “MAC-tion” and I’m anticipating a pretty high scoring game here between Eastern Michigan and Toledo. Visiting EMU comes in with the better overall record (5-3 vs. 4-4 SU), however both are 2-2 SU in conference play and Toledo is a decided favorite at the Glass Bowl. Both teams are chasing Northern Illinois, who at 4-0 SU in conference play is the only undefeated team in the entire MAC. It may seem strange to expect a “high-scoring game” with Toledo involved. The Rockets have seen their last six games all stay Under the total. The O/U lines have been pretty consistent, ranging from 51 to 58.5. Three of the previous four games have seen between 49 and 52 total points scored, so there have been some close calls. In their last game, Toledo put up 34 points in a win over Western Michigan. That was their most points scored in a game excluding UMass or an FCS opponent (Norfolk State). The Over is 6-1 the L7 times hosting EMU and LY in Ypsilanti, the Rockets scored 45 points. The Toledo defense has been surprisingly stout for a .500 team. They are allowing just 18.3 PPG. But the Rockets’ stop unit will be tested by an Eastern Michigan offense that comes in averaging 32.8 PPG (2nd most in the MAC). The Eagles have gone over 30 points in five of their eight games this season. Last time out, they put up 55 in a win over Bowling Green. The key was a mid-season change at QB to Ben Bryant, who leads the conference in passer rating. Toledo also made a change under center a couple weeks ago and they’ve been better (on the offensive end) since then. The Over is due to hit for the home team. 10* Over Eastern Michigan/Toledo |
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11-02-21 | Miami-OH v. Ohio OVER 52 | Top | 33-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
8* Over Miami/Ohio (7:30 ET): The 97th edition of the “Battle of the Bricks” will have a decidedly different “feel” this season as it will mark the first time since 2004 that Frank Solich is not patrolling the sidelines for Ohio. The legendary coach made a surprise retirement this past offseason and that has led to a real downturn in Athens. The Bobcats are just 1-7 SU (one win was against Akron) and headed for their worst season in two decades. However, there is one pretty incredible streak still alive at Ohio: It’s been six years since they lost a MAC game by more than seven points. This year’s three conference losses have been by a combined 11 points. Over the L5 seasons, the Bobcats have 10 MAC losses by 3 pts or less! Miami is in much better “form” coming into Tuesday’s rivalry game having won three of its last four. The one loss came by a single point, 13-12 at Eastern Michigan. The RedHawks are coming off a 24-17 upset win at Ball State that leaves them tied with Kent State atop the MAC East. That was their 1st road win of the season as 2021 got underway with a brutal three-game road trip through Cincinnati, Minnesota & Army. Four of Miami’s last five games have gone Under, the exception being a 34-21 win over Akron. Ohio’s last five games have all stayed Under, but I’m calling for a reversal of the trend here. This O/U line is definitely on the “low” end for both teams. The O/U line for Ohio’s last game was 68.5. The only game with a lower O/U line than this one came against Northwestern, who held them to six points. Miami’s defense is not going to do that. But at the same time, Ohio’s run defense is one of the worst in the entire country (220 YPG allowed) and they allow 31.1 PPG. 8* Over Miami/Ohio |
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10-31-21 | 49ers v. Bears OVER 39.5 | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 94 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over 49ers/Bears (1:00 ET): Holding an Over ticket in my hand last week, I felt pretty good at halftime of the Bears-Bucs game. Tampa Bay had just scored its FIFTH touchdown of the first half to go up 35-3. All I would need in the second half was 10 points. I got three. Probably my most frustrating defeat so far this NFL season. But I’m going to “go for it again” this week as the Bears (now 6-0 Under L6 games) host the 49ers in a battle of two NFC teams that are absolutely desperate for a victory. San Francisco has lost four straight games. Being in the same division as the Cardinals and Rams, the Niners can pretty much “kiss goodbye” any chances of winning the NFC West. Remember that at one time they were 2-0 and looking like a lock to be one of the most improved teams in the entire league (finished 6-10 SU LY). But the bottom has dropped out, mostly because of injuries. QB Jimmy Garoppolo returned last week, but the offense could only manage 18 points in a rain-soaked loss to the Colts on SNF. I do think they’re set to do better here, especially if Khalil Mack can’t go for the Bears. Rookie QB Justin Fields, who everyone wanted to see play, has been thrown to the wolves in Chicago. It doesn’t help that Matt Nagy is looking more and more like a “lame-duck” head coach. But I think Fields and this much maligned Bears offense can find some success this week against a 49ers defense that has given up 28 or more points in three of its last four games. This is a REALLY low total for 2021, especially considering SF is 5-1-1 Over the L7 times it has been road chalk. 10* Over 49ers/Bears |
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10-30-21 | Penn State v. Ohio State UNDER 61 | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 55 h 23 m | Show |
9* Under Penn State/Ohio State (7:30 ET): Admittedly, I’m taking a risk betting on the #1 scoring offense in the country (49.3 PPG) being in a game that stays Under the total. But the team Ohio State is facing here could only manage 18 points in a game that went NINE overtimes last week! In conference play, Penn State is averaging only 19.5 points per game. So I don’t think we have to worry about them scoring many points Saturday night in Columbus. The deciding factor is that the Nittany Lions defense is quite good (14.7 PPG allowed) and can be the first to hold the Buckeyes in check here in 2021. The last two games have seen Penn State fail to break 300 total yards. This despite starting QB Sean Clifford (got injured against Iowa) returning to the lineup last week. The Nittany Lions seemingly can’t run the ball (100th in FBS in rush yards per game) and it’s not like they’re going to do much of that here anyway as they figure to be trailing throughout. Clifford could only complete 19 of 34 passes against Illinois for 165 yards. He was also sacked four times. Now he faces a defense that’s allowed 17 points or less in four consecutive games. Now the Ohio State offense has topped 50 in each of those same four games. But this is the best defense they’ve faced all season. Penn State is #15 in the country against the pass, holding teams to just 178 YPG through the air. The Buckeyes aren’t going to score 50+ every week. Even if they hit 40 this week, which I concede is possible, that does not necessarily mean this game is going to go Over. The Buckeyes allowed just 128 total yards against Indiana last week. So I really can’t stress how little scoring PSU is likely to do in this game. While the O/U line is right in line with most Ohio State games this year, it’s a season high for Penn State. 9* Under Penn State/Ohio State |
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10-29-21 | Pacers v. Nets OVER 222 | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Pacers/Nets (7:35 ET): All five Brooklyn games have stayed Under the total this year. That's certainly not what you'd expect from a team that led the NBA in scoring a season ago. I look for the trend to get snapped tonight when the Nets host Indiana. The L3 games have seen Brooklyn shoot just 43.7%, 42.6% and 38.8% from the field. The percentages from three-point range are obviously even lower, down around 28% overall during the three-game stretch. Again, this is simply not what you expect from this team. Kyrie Irving remains out, but with Kevin Durant and James Harden, the Nets should be scoring more. Harden has struggled as he continues to work his way back from the hamstring injury that he suffered in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. He’s averaging just 16.6 PPG, very “un-Harden like.” I think it’s only a matter of time before he and the Nets get on track offensively. How about tonight? They’ve yet to score more than 114 points in a game this season. Last year, they averaged 118.6 PPG. As for Indiana, they too have underperformed of late. At 1-4, they’re off to their worst start in six seasons. That includes an 0-3 record on the road after losing 118-100 to Toronto on Wednesday. After scoring 122 and 134 points in the first two games, the Pacers have averaged just 103.6 PPG the last three. They should easily top that number this evening and shoot better than either of Brooklyn’s last two opponents did. Domantas Sabonis, a 21.6 points per game scorer, attempted just four shots in Toronto. Look for a big bounce back game from him tonight. 10* Over Pacers/Nets |
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10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 72 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Navy/Tulsa (7:30 ET): Tulsa has gone Over in five straight games, which immediately caught my eye. Here they are matched up with a Navy team that isn’t very strong offensively (at least compared to years past) but did just hold Cincinnati to 27 points last week. Based on the way Navy plays (lots of running), there figures to be a lower number of possessions than usual for a Tulsa game. The Golden Hurricane also got last weekend off, giving them some added time to prepare for the triple option. When these teams met last year in Annapolis (Tulsa was ranked #22 at the time), the final score was just 19-6 (Tulsa won). Last year was a good one for the Golden Hurricane as they finished 6-3 SU with the losses coming to Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and Mississippi State (bowl). This year’s squad is not nearly as strong. However, the number of points allowed last week to USF (31) was highly misleading. The Bulls got TWO non-offensive touchdowns in the 2Q to build a brief 14-point lead. The Golden Hurricane actually ended up allowing only 268 total yards. Navy’s offense has been pretty pitiful to this point. They average just 280 YPG. The vaunted rushing attack is producing only 3.5 yards per carry. The Midshipmen did have a season-high 116 yards passing last week, but that’s because they fell behind by 17 points and had to throw. Again, I was impressed by the defense holding a top five opponent (that averages 41.1 PPG) to just 27 points and 271 total yards. I predict that this ends up being the lowest scoring game - for both teams - so far this season. 10* Under Navy/Tulsa |
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10-25-21 | Pistons v. Hawks OVER 212.5 | Top | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
8* Over Pistons/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta’s first two opponents combined to shoot just 37.4% overall and 28.2% from three. You’ve got to figure that won’t hold up. Also, they only scored 95 points themselves in a surprising loss to Cleveland on Saturday night. A return home should lead to noticeable uptick in scoring. In the first game, the Hawks scored 113 points and easily defeated the Dallas Mavericks. They are big favorites here over the Pistons and I expect this game to go well Over the total. Detroit has played two low-scoring games thus far, both against Chicago. Neither time were the Pistons able to break 90 points. That’s just sad. The first game vs. the Bulls saw them shoot 40% and score 88 points. A visit to the Windy City saw declines down to 38.6% shooting and 82 points. Through two games, the Pistons are a horrible 19.6% from three-point range. These numbers can only improve and I think they will tonight - substantially - as the Hawks were already set to regress defensively from the first two games. With these teams combining to go 4-0 Under thus far, it’s no shock that the total is low. But it’s too low. Atlanta averaged 113.7 PPG at home last season. They were right at that number in the season opener vs. Dallas. If they were to again finish near that average (very reasonable assumption) then all we’d need is 100 points from the Pistons. Again, that sounds reasonable. Trae Young did not shoot well against Cleveland nor the last time he faced Detroit. That’s about to change. The Over is 10-1 the L11 meetings between these teams in Atlanta. 8* Over Pistons/Hawks |
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10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers UNDER 43 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
8* Under Colts/49ers (8:20 ET): I’d like to think that, coming off a bye, San Francisco will be ready to roll here. But this team has not been good as a favorite under HC Kyle Shanahan, going just 8-19-2 ATS including 2-7 SU the last nine times they’ve been laying three points or more. Even with QB Jimmy Garoppolo set to make his return, there are still a litany of injuries this team is dealing with. It’s not like Garoppolo was all that effective before getting injured anyway. He completed only 62% of his passes the L2 starts with two interceptions. Meanwhile, it was an 0-3 start for Indianapolis this season and things were looking bleak. But the Colts have turned it around a bit by winning two of the last three games and going 3-0 ATS. Honestly, they probably feel like they should also be 3-0 SU over that stretch as they blew a big lead against Baltimore on MNF and lost that one in OT. Thanks to playing the Texans last week, it was an easy bounce back and the defense did its job, holding Houston to only three points. The last time the 49ers beat the Colts was 2001. Obviously, you can count and know that was 20 years ago. But considering that was the game that inspired Jim Mora’s infamous “PLAYOFFS” rant, it might as well have been a lifetime ago. Who knows if either of these teams can get back in the playoff race in 2021. But what I do know is that Sunday night should be a low-scoring game. 8* Under Colts/49ers |
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10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs OVER 47 | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -106 | 46 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Bears/Bucs (4:25 ET): If Justin Fields thought going against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers was tough, wait until he gets a hold of Tom Brady and the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. This should be Fields' toughest matchup as a pro. I just can’t see the Bears being able to trade points with the Bucs. But I do think they can score enough to help send this one Over the total. The Bears’ last five games have all gone Under. A matchup with a top three scoring offense should change that. Take the Over. The Bucs have not faced a good offense since suffering their only loss, 34-24 to the Rams. Since that loss, they’ve beaten New England, Miami and Philadelphia. Yet only that New England game, which was a highly emotional affair (Brady’s return to Foxboro), saw less than 50 total points scored. Other than at New England, Tampa Bay games have averaged more than 60 PPG this season! All three of their home games this season have gone Over. Brady will not have to worry about one of Chicago’s top pass rushers (Robert Quinn) as he is on the COVID list. The Bucs have scored at least 30 points in every home game so far and twice gone over 40. Obviously, I’m expecting a lot of points from them today. But I also expect their defense to give up a surprising number of yards in the passing game to Fields. Before going up against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last Thursday, the Bucs had allowed at least 262 yards passing to every opponent. If the Bears get to 20, which they should, then this is an easy Over. 10* Over Bears/Bucs |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
9* Over Bengals/Ravens (1:00 ET): I can understand why the “sharp money” seems to like the Under in this matchup. It’s a divisional game, which means the teams are familiar with one another. Also a Cincinnati team that is 5-0 Under its last five games has been held to just 19 points in its last three meetings with Baltimore. However, this is a much better Bengals team in 2021. They come in at 4-2 SU and just put up a season-high 34 points last. While that was against the lowly Lions, there’s been only one game all year when Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. I’m on the Over. The Ravens scored 34 points last week in what was the most impressive wins I’ve seen from anybody this NFL season. They crushed the red-hot Chargers, holding Justin Herbert to just six points. But this Baltimore defense has been kind of “Jekyll and Hyde.” While there have been three times they’ve held the opponent to 17 points or less (Lions, Broncos, Chargers), there have also been three times they’ve given up 25+ points (Raiders, Chiefs, Colts). Where there’s no mystery is on the offensive side of the ball at home. In three home games, the Ravens have averaged 33.7 PPG and topped 30 every time. I already mentioned how the previous three meetings between these teams have seen the Bengals not score many points. The same cannot be said about the Ravens. They’ve averaged 38 PPG in those three matchups! Here at home (see above), I have full confidence in them scoring a bunch of points on Sunday. Cincinnati should be able to stick with them though as the Ravens’ defense is allowing 277 yards passing per game. Joe Burrow is a lot better now than when he faced the Ravens as a rookie. He has Ja'Marr Chase to throw to as well. 9* Over Bengals/Ravens |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 40.5 | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
10* Over Wisconsin/Purdue (3:00 ET): While Purdue obviously could have cared less, my loss with the Over in their game last week against Iowa was quite frustrating. Give credit where credit is due. The Boilermakers rolled into Iowa City and stomped the #2 ranked team in the country (yeah right!) 24-7 as a double digit underdog. But four turnovers by the Hawkeyes, all of them in Purdue territory, were the reason that game stayed Under. That and the fact there were two missed FGs (one by each side) after long drives and Purdue also fumbled at the goal line. The Boilermakers are now 6-0 Under this season, making them the ONLY team in the country yet to go Over in a single game. That changes this week. You can’t take away what Purdue did offensively last week against a very good Iowa defense. QB Aidan O’Connell threw for 375 yards and WR David Bell hauled in a career-high 240 yards. The Wisconsin defense that the Boilermakers will face this week is good, but not as good as Iowa’s, as evident by the fact the Badgers gave up 41 points to Notre Dame and 38 to Michigan. The number of points allowed vs. ND is a bit misleading (non-offensive TDs) but there was nothing phony about the way Michigan put it on them. As I alluded to earlier, Purdue should have scored 30+ points last week against a very good Iowa defense. This is a really low O/U line, the lowest of the season for Purdue. It’s not the lowest of the season for Wisconsin as they played Army last week and the O/U line for that game was 37. The game did NOT go Over (Badgers won 20-14), although I should point out that it was close. Wisconsin’s defense is great against the run, but it has faced two terrible passing teams (Illinois, Army) in a row. They allowed 239+ yards passing in three of the first four games and as we saw last week, the passing game is the strength of this Purdue offense (334 YPG). This one gets Over. 10* Over Wisconsin/Purdue |