Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-22-21 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 105 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Red Sox/Astros (8:08 ET): Over bettors are having a “field day” in both LCS, but particularly here in the American League where EVERY game has gone their way. You certainly don’t have to remind me as I had the Under in the last game, which was still on track to be a winner entering the ninth inning. But Houston just “had” to put two “meaningless” runs on the board in that final frame (with two outs!) to make it a 9-1 final. It was even more painful if you have the Under in Game 3 when the Astros put SEVEN runs on the board in the top of the ninth (again, with two outs). The Under is not only 5-0 in this series, but 7-0 the L7 times they’ve met and 8-0 in each of the teams’ last eight games. Maybe it’s just me being stubborn, but I feel this is where the Over streak comes to an end. Boston had just three hits in Game 5 and only five hits in Game 4. That was at Fenway Park where they are averaging 5.8 runs per game for the season. On the road, that average dips to 4.5. So much of the Red Sox scoring in this series has come from a record-setting number of grand slams. But those days are over. The Under just so happens to be 6-1 in the Astros’ last seven LCS home games. There certainly hasn’t been a whole lot of scoring in the early innings of the L2 games. It was 1-0 (Houston) after five in Game 5 and 2-1 (Boston) entering the eighth in Game 4. Starting Game 6 for the Red Sox will be Nathan Eovaldi, who has allowed a total of just six runs his L4 starts (all team wins) in 17 ⅔ IP. Eovaldi will be opposed by Luis Garcia, who has seen the Under go 11-3 in his home starts thanks in large part to a 2.92 ERA and 1.054 WHIP. Yes, he had the disastrous start here vs. Boston in Game 2. I do not see history repeating itself. Eovaldi allowed just three runs in 5 ⅓ IP in that game, which is realistic to be repeated. 10* Under Red Sox/Astros. |
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10-20-21 | Pacers v. Hornets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 122-123 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
10* Under Pacers/Hornets (7:05 ET): Two Eastern Conference teams that I expect to end up fighting for play-in spots come playoff time are Indiana and Charlotte. That shouldn’t be considered a very “hot” take. After all, both these teams found themselves in the play-in round last year. Neither made it out with the Hornets losing to the Pacers 144-117 to end their season. Then Indiana could not get by Washington, losing 142-115, which ended their season. It should be a much lower-scoring game to start the season this year. Take the Under on Wednesday. Indiana has finished between fourth and ninth place in the Eastern Conference each of the last six seasons. That’s a nice run of consistency, but they’ve never advanced past the first round of the playoffs during that time. The hope is that new HC Rick Carlisle can take them past mediocrity. He’s got some good pieces with Sabonis, Turner, Brogdon, LeVert and Warren forming a solid starting five. There’s not much depth though. What Carlisle needs to work on - and probably will - is the defense. The Pacers gave up 115.7 PPG, the same number they averaged themselves. That led to the highest Over percentage in the league. I expect more Unders in 2021-22. Compared to Indiana, Charlotte games were much lower-scoring last season. The Hornets only averaged 109.6 PPG, which put them in the bottom third of the league. Defensively, the key to their success is playing more zone than every other team. The zone clearly bothers opponents. It should bother Indiana, who will be without Warren and LeVert. But I worry about the Hornets offensively as their leading scorer last year was Terry Rozier. We saw what happened LY in the play-in game when the threes weren’t falling. The Under is 13-3 their L16 games as a home favorite. 10* Under Pacers/Hornets |
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10-20-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Astros/Red Sox (5:08 ET): These teams must REALLY love to go Over. Last night saw the Astros stun the Fenway faithful with a seven-run ninth inning. That not only evened this ALCS up at two games apiece, but sent Game 4 Over the total by one run. Every game in the series has now gone Over. Both teams are 7-0 Over their L7 games. They are 6-0 Over the L6 times they’ve faced one another. This “madness” has to come to an end sooner rather than later. Right? We’ve got two lefties starting Game 5 - Framber Valdez for Houston and Chris Sale for Boston. This is a rematch from Game 1 when neither southpaw was very effective. Both were pulled after just 2 ⅔ innings. But Valdez has better numbers on the road than he does at home, namely a 2.88 ERA and 1.139 WHIP. Sale has better numbers at home (2.48 ERA, 1.276 WHIP) than he does on the road. So expect both guys to pitch better than they did in Game 1. Valdez had a 1.59 ERA vs. Boston while Sale had a 2.20 ERA vs. Houston (prior to Game 1). Obviously, condolences are in order to anyone that may have had the Under last night. That bet looked like a surefire winner for most of the game. It was 2-1 going into eighth and 2-2 going into the ninth with an O/U line of 10.0. But we saw what happens with Boston when they’re not hitting grand slams every night. They finished with just five hits and the only two runs scored both came in the first inning. The Under is 7-1 the last 8 times the Red Sox have faced a left-handed starter. We’re obviously overdue for an Under in this series. 10* Under Astros/Red Sox |
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10-19-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | Top | 104-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* Under Nets/Bucks (7:35 ET): The two top teams in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire league, square off on Opening Night as the reigning NBA Champion Bucks host the Nets. Entering this season, Brooklyn has the best odds of winning the NBA Finals. But they are also dealing with the issue of Kyrie Irving not being available until he gets vaccinated. They still have the luxury of Kevin Durant and James Harden being on the roster though. Irving and Harden both missing three games in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals had a lot to do with Milwaukee overcoming an 0-2 hole to win that series in seven games. That ECF was much lower-scoring than anticipated, given these were the two highest scoring teams in the league last season. Only one of the seven games went Over the total and that was Game 7, which went to OT. In fact, the Under is 7-1-1 the L9 meetings between these teams including a perfect 5-0 when they play here in Milwaukee. I’m going to say that they go Under again here in the season opener. Neither team figures to be in “peak offensive form” for the first game. Somewhat incredibly, the losing team did not even score 100 points in four of the seven games in LY’s ECF. It may not be THAT low-scoring this time around, but this is a high O/U for the first game and I just can’t see this one reaching it. 10* Under Nets/Bucks |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Under Astros/Red Sox (8:07 ET): With the ALCS now set to move to Fenway Park, I’m going to call for the Over trend we’ve seen from both clubs to come to an end in Game 3. The first two games in Houston obviously both went Over as have the L5 games for both the Astros and Red Sox. However, let us not forget about the real rarity that ensued in Game 2 as the Red Sox hit not one, but TWO grand slams in the 9-5 victory. After the grand slams were hit (and the game was essentially no longer in doubt), the Red Sox managed only two hits the remainder of the game. Take the Under in Game 3. How rare is it to hit two grand slams in the same postseason game? Well before Boston did it on Saturday, it had NEVER happened before in MLB history! They were just the 6th team EVER to record grand slams in the first two innings of a MLB game. But I think the Astros have their man to slow the Red Sox down in Jose Urquidy, who will be making his postseason debut in Game 3. Urquidy has a 0.981 WHIP in 2021 and there have been only four starts all season where he allowed more than 3 ER. Boston will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, who hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in any of his L6 starts. Now he didn’t make it very long in Game 1 of the LDS against Tampa Bay. But even still, that wound up being the lone Under to cash for the Red Sox this postseason (they lost 5-0). The Under is also 17-7-4 after the Astros’ last 28 losses and 6-2 the L8 times the Astros have been a playoff underdog. 10* Under Astros/Red Sox |
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10-16-21 | Purdue v. Iowa OVER 43 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 13 m | Show |
8* Over Purdue/Iowa (3:30 ET): There’s only one team left that has yet to go Over in a single game this season and that’s Purdue (5-0 Under), who is coming off a bye and will have its toughest game yet this weekend as they visit Iowa City to face the unbeaten Hawkeyes. Iowa is having a dream season thus far. Fueled by a +15 turnover differential (#1 in the country), they are 6-0 SU and ranked #2 in the polls. They are off a spirited, come from behind win over Penn State (in what was a matchup of two top five teams). With them in a bit of a letdown spot, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawkeyes give up more points than usual this week. Purdue had no problem scoring in their first two games. They opened with a 30-21 win over Oregon State, then a 49-0 beatdown of hideous UConn. But since that time, the Boilermakers have been held to just 13 points in three consecutive games. One of those was a win, at home vs. Illinois, but they lost to both Notre Dame and Minnesota. The totals keep getting lower each week and now I think we’re at the point where there’s a great value in bucking their Under trend. The Boilermakers did put up 448 yards in their last game, so scoring only 13 points was a major disappointment. Inefficiency in the red zone really cost them. The Boilermakers’ offense is healthier than it’s been at any point this season and a QB change was made prior to the Minnesota game. Aiden O’Connell (357 yards vs. Minnesota) looked a lot better than the inconsistent Jack Plummer. Purdue will need to be firing on all cylinders against the Iowa defense and I do believe they’ll score a surprising number of points here. They beat Iowa last year 24-20 in West Lafayette. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 23 in every game this season, so if Purdue gets to 20 (and I think they can!), then this will be an easy Over. Iowa’s L2 games both did go Over the total. 8* Over Purdue/Iowa |
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10-16-21 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech UNDER 58 | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 121 h 13 m | Show |
8* Under Pitt/Va Tech (3:30 ET): There has been a tremendous amount of upheaval in the ACC this season with preseason favorites like North Carolina, Miami and Clemson (!) all losing two or more times before we even hit the second weekend of October. The league has only two ranked teams, one of them undefeated Wake Forest (the other is NC State), but don’t discount a Pitt team that should be considered the favorite right now to win the Coastal Division. The Panthers are 4-1 (only loss to Western Michigan!) and averaging a FBS high 52.4 PPG. They are one of just two teams to be 5-0 Over entering the weekend. But this week, the Panthers should encounter some resistance as they head to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech. From a situational perspective, the spot looks great for the road team. They are off a bye while Va Tech is off a close loss to Notre Dame. But I definitely see Pitt’s lofty scoring average coming down over the next few weeks. Va Tech is giving up just 18.6 PPG on the year and every game except Notre Dame stayed Under the total. Until the final four minutes, they had held the Fighting Irish to just 21 points. Last week was the first Va Tech game this year to feature more than 50 total pts scored. Pitt has played some terrible teams like UMass and New Hampshire. They scored 77 against the latter, which is a big reason why their season average is so high. This total is right in line with the oddsmakers’ projections for all of the Panthers’ previous games, so the market sees no reason to react to the shocking amount of scoring we’ve seen thus far from Pat Narduzzi’s team. The Under is 4-0 in their last four trips to Blacksburg and I’m not sure either team gets to 30 points in this one. 8* Under Pitt/Va Tech |
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10-16-21 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion UNDER 68 | Top | 43-20 | Win | 100 | 121 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion (3:30 ET): WKU is the only other team besides Pitt to have a perfect 5-0 Over record. My mindset should be pretty obvious with this totals report as I think these streaks are due to come to an end. The Hilltoppers, who have been involved in nothing but shootouts thus far, are off a heartbreaking 52-46 home loss to unbeaten UTSA last week. This week’s opponent, Old Dominion, is nowhere near as prolific as UTSA or most other previous WKU opponents. This should be the Hilltoppers’ best defensive performance since holding Tenn Martin to 21 points in the season opener. Or it could end up being even better than that! Old Dominion, like WKU, is off to poor start to the 2021 season. The Monarchs are 1-5 SU with the lone win coming against FCS Hampton. Take that win away and they’ve averaged only 19 PPG. They were held to just 13 points last week in Marshall, the third straight loss by seven points or less. That game ended up going to overtime. ODU led 10-6 with just under three minutes in regulation. Even with just 314 yards last week, it wasn’t even ODU’s worst effort in total offense this season as Liberty held them to 201 yards and UTEP held them to 282. This will be the highest total for any ODU game so far this season. I do not expect Western Kentucky to be able to run the ball at all in this game. The Hilltoppers come in averaging only 93 YPG on the ground at 3.9 YPC. On the road, those averages drop to 57 YPG on 2.5 YPC. It just so happens that Old Dominion has done a great job stopping the run at home, allowing only 2.7 yards per carry. The Monarchs have allowed only one opponent - Liberty - to gain 400 total yards. Four of their games have seen 54 or less total points scored while only one has exceeded 62 points. 8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion |
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10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* Over Giants/Dodgers (9:07 ET): The Giants have now shut the Dodgers out twice in this series, including last night’s thrilling 1-0 victory that has them on the cusp of their first NLCS since 2014. But I think it’s rather reasonable to expect the Dodgers to have a bounce back game offensively. They are 10-2 the L3 seasons following a shutout loss, including 5-1 in 2021. After being shutout in Game 1 of this series, we all saw them bounce back with nine runs in a Game 2 victory. Whether or not a bounce back night at the plate is enough to win Game 4 remains to be seen though as I think the Giants are also in line for an increase in offense this evening. We know that the Giants are going with Anthony DeSclafani as their starter for tonight’s game. DeSclafani may have had a strong regular season overall, but he struggled when facing the Dodgers. He is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in six starts vs. LA this year. One of those six starts saw him give up 10 runs in just 2 ⅔ innings. Another saw him serve up three home runs. DeSclafani’s regular season did end with a streak of six straight Unders. But that is probably due to end here as the Over was 4-2 the L6 times he has faced the Dodgers. The Dodgers have not yet officially confirmed their Game 4 starter. It could be Tony Gonsolin or it could be Walker Buehler (who started Game 1). Regardless, this play on the Over is “action,” no matter who ends up starting for the home team. The big story from last night was the 15 MPH wind, which obviously favored the pitchers. Assuming it’s a “normal night” in LA, we won’t have to worry about that again. These were the two highest scoring teams in the NL during the regular season. My play on the Under last night couldn’t have gone any better, but tonight it’s time to take the Over. 10* Over Giants/Dodgers |
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10-11-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 104 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Giants/Dodgers (9:37 ET): The Dodgers have to be feeling pretty good about this series right now. They won Game 2 in San Francisco and now head home where they are 59-23 this season. No team has more wins at home this year. For Game 3, they will be sending Max Scherzer out the hill. Since acquiring him from Washington at the trade deadline, the Dodgers are 12-0 when Scherzer starts including the win over St. Louis in the Wild Card Game. As you’d expect, Scherzer has been pretty dominant since donning Dodger Blue. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in 10 of those 12 starts. But the Giants can’t be discounted here. They were the only team to win more games than the Dodgers in the regular season, which is why they had the homefield advantage for this series.That’s now gone, but the fact they give up only 3.5 runs per game on the road should not be discounted. Only Milwaukee allowed less runs this year away from home. Alex Wood will get the start tonight and not only did he post a 1.38 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his L3 starts, all Giants wins, but the Under has cashed in each of his L6 starts. Wood hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of those six outings. Remember the Dodgers were shutout in Game 1 of this series. As good as the Giants have been at run suppression this year, the Dodgers are even stingier when they’re the home team as they give up only 3.3 rpg at Chavez Ravine. That’s tied (w/ Tampa Bay) for the lowest average by any home team. Opposing hitters are batting just .208 for the year here! I know Scherzer had two rocky starts at the end of the regular season (one was in Colorado) and an abbreviated outing in the WC Game. But I have full confidence in him and the Dodgers’ bullpen, which limited the Giants to just three hits in Game 2 and also shut down the Cardinals after Scherzer departed last Wednesday. 10* Under Giants/Dodgers |
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10-11-21 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
8* Over Brewers/Braves (1:07 ET): Runs have been scarce so far in this series with only three scored in both games. All three went to the Braves in Game 2 as they evened this LDS up 1-1. (Milwaukee won Game 1, 2-1). But with the series now shifting to Atlanta, you can look for the amount of scoring to go up. It’s rare that I’d say a team might be HAPPY to get away from home, but with Milwaukee it might just be the case. As is the case with Atlanta, the Brew Crew have a better record on the road than they do at home. One of the reasons the Brewers have been better on the road is that their scoring average jumps to 4.8 runs per game.. That’s a half-run more per game than what they average at American Family Field. So after REALLY struggling at the plate in the first two games, look for the bats to come alive in Game 3 vs. Ian Anderson. The Over was 6-2 in Anderson’s home starts for the Braves. He posted a 4.41 ERA and 1.413 WHIP his L7 starts. The Braves allowed significantly more runs at home than they did on the road in the regular season. As of press time, Milwaukee had yet to officially name a Game 3 starter. There’s a good chance it will be Freddy Peralta. Regardless of who toes the rubber, this Over play does stand. If it is Peralta, take note that he struggled a bit down the stretch, posting a 4.70 ERA in five September starts. He has not started since 9/26. The Brewers did allow only 3.4 rpg on the road in the regular season, but Peralta isn’t their best option and the Braves average 5.0 at home. It’s time this series saw a high-scoring game. 8* Over Brewers/Braves |
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10-10-21 | Broncos v. Steelers OVER 39.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 94 h 13 m | Show |
10* Over Broncos/Steelers (1:00 ET): Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion in last week’s loss to the Ravens and did not practice Wednesday. He is questionable to play here, which means it could be Drew Lock starting in his place. Lock’s career ATS record (11-7) pales in comparison to that of Bridgewater (who is 38-15 ATS as a starter), so that would be a downgrade going up against what is still regarded as a very good defense in Pittsburgh. But that Steelers’ defense is also pretty banged up at the moment. Denver’s 3-0 SU start came against teams that are currently a combined 2-10 SU (Giants, Jets, Jags). They were somewhat exposed in last week’s 23-7 loss to the Ravens. I find it interesting though that the Broncos, who were the only team in the league not to be favored in a single game last season, could end up being favorites for a fifth consecutive week here. They are in a much better position than Pittsburgh, who has lost three in a row after opening the season with an upset win in Buffalo that now feels like a distant memory. The Steelers look like they could be headed for their 1st losing season under Mike Tomlin. There are only four teams in the league that are 4-0 Under and these are two of them. Given that, the injuries and “iffy” QB situations on both sides (Big Ben has been BAD), I understand why this O/U is so low. But I feel it’s too low. You’re just not going to see many NFL totals of 40.0 or lower this season. Two of the Steelers’ last three games would have exceeded this total. Look for this game to sneak Over the total, somehow, someway. Both teams have key injuries in the secondary. 10* Over Broncos/Steelers |
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10-09-21 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Dodgers/Giants (9:07 ET): The Dodgers ended the regular season on a 5-0 Over run. But as everyone knows, the MLB postseason is a different animal. They’ve been held to just three runs in two games and were shutout last night, 4-0 by the Giants, in Game 1 of the NLDS. Takeaway the walkoff HR in the Wild Card Game Tuesday and Los Angeles has scored only one run in the L2 games. With just five hits last night, it was pretty clear they missed 1B Max Muncy (who is out with a dislocated elbow). Despite the Dodgers’ vaunted reputation, I don’t necessarily see them bouncing back at the plate in Game 2. One thing the visitors shouldn’t have to worry about tonight is their starting pitching. Julio Urias has been on fire down the stretch. He was the majors’ only 20-game winner in the regular season and has an 11-0 team start record his L11 trips to the mound with a 1.77 ERA! Urias has faced the Giants five times in 2021 and held them to 2 ER or less on four of those occasions. He’s allowed a total of only three runs the last three times he faced them. The Giants are also without their starting 1B, Brandon Belt, so they too have a weaker lineup than usual right now. The Under is 6-1-1 in Urias’ previous eight starts. Kevin Gausman may not be able to match Urias’ gaudy WL record, but he does have a 21-12 TSR for the Giants to go along with a 2.81 ERA and 1.036 WHIP. That’s a lower ERA than Urias has. The Dodgers could only manage three singles and two doubles last night. Over the past nine games, the Giants’ staff has allowed a total of just 21 runs and posted three shutouts. So look for this to be a low-scoring Game 2. The Dodgers are 9-1 Under off their L10 losses and could not score more than three runs off Gausman any of the three times they faced him in the regular season. 10* Under Dodgers/Giants |
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10-09-21 | Akron v. Bowling Green OVER 45.5 | Top | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
10* Over Akron/Bowling Green (12:00 ET): Bowling Green is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country and now finds itself favored for just the third time in its last 43 games. Normally, I might view this as an opportune time to fade. But I also have zero interest in taking an Akron team that is just 2-21 SU in its last 23 games, even if one of those victories came against the Falcons last season. (The other was this year vs. FCS Bryant). During that same time, the Zips are 0-19 SU and 1-18 ATS as underdogs! (They were 2-pt favorites LY vs. BGSU). I don’t think you can play either side here. So what is the play? Well, in addition to being perfect against the spread so far, BGSU has also gone Under in all five of its games. They are one of just two 5-0 Under teams, Purdue being the other. Seeing as how the Falcons average only 17.2 PPG (they are 2-3 straight up), you may think I’m going to predict the Under trend to continue. Guess again! With Akron already having given up 45+ points three different times, I think BGSU is going to have its highest scoring game of the season this week. Just to further illustrate how awful the Zips truly are, this is the first time since 2015 that BGSU is favored by two touchdowns. Talk about being due for Over; not only is BGSU one of just two teams in the country to be 5-0 Under right now, but the last five meetings with Akron (and 8 of the last 9) have stayed Under as well. The Zips’ win over BG last season is the only time in their last eight games that they did not give up at least 34 points. All we’re probably going to need from them here is 10 points. Every one of Akron’s games this year would have gone Over this total, which is incredibly low for a College Football game in 2021. 10* Over Akron/Bowling Green |
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10-08-21 | White Sox v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
8* Over White Sox/Astros (2:10 ET): My view that the White Sox were better on the road than their record suggests turned out to be misguided, at least for Game 1. The Astros wasted no time jumping out to a lead on Thursday afternoon, scoring at least one run from the second to the fifth inning and that was all she wrote. It ended up being a 6-1 win for the home team. The White Sox fell to 40-42 away from home this season, but as I pointed out in yesterday’s analysis, they do average 4.7 runs per game. So I’m at least expecting more offense from them this afternoon. Houston finished tied (w/ Tampa Bay) for the major league lead in runs per game at 5.3. Their offensive prowess was on full display yday as they scored six (or more) runs for the fourth consecutive game. In Game 2, they’ll face Lucas Giolito, who had a great start in LY’s postseason. But that’s just a small sample size and there’s certainly no guarantee he can repeat that performance here. Giolito did throw a complete-game three-hitter against the Astros in the regular season, but the final score was 10-1, a result I’d certainly take here as I’m on the Over. Framber Valdez will start Game 2 for the Astros. He’s allowed 4+ runs in three of his last five starts and also surrendered that many the last time he faced the White Sox. So there’s still hope for the road team in this series. The White Sox figure to be aggressive at the plate today as they look to avoid falling into an 0-2 series deficit. This is a lineup that’s scored 5+ runs in six of its last eight games. But the Over is 23-10-2 the L35 times Houston has been off a win, so this figures to be a high-scoring game all around. 8* Over White Sox/Astros |
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10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
8* Under Yankees/Red Sox (8:08 ET): Even though the Red Sox come in averaging a MLB-high 5.8 runs per game at home and have had success this year vs. Gerrit Cole, look for the AL Wild Card Game to stay Under the total. The Yankees are NOT a particularly strong offensive club and - with one exception in September - Nathan Eovaldi has had their number the past few seasons. The Under was 13-6 in all meetings this year between the Yankees and Red Sox. That includes 8-2 at Fenway and 8-2 L10 overall. Eovaldi starting here for Boston makes sense. Since 2016, he has a 3.64 ERA against his former team. Five of the six times he faced them this season, Eovaldi allowed 2 ER or less. The first five saw him allow just seven runs in 31 ⅓ IP. Then he got shelled in late September. I’m going to call that last one an aberration as the Yankees are averaging just 4.4 rpg for the season, second fewest among all playoff teams (even including the National League ones). The Yanks have gone Under in 56% of their road games and 62% of their division games. Cole hasn’t fared well against the Red Sox this season. Like Eovaldi, he definitely did struggle a bit down the stretch. But Cole was intentionally rested Sunday so that he’d be available for this game, or a tiebreaker that ended up not being needed. The Yankees obviously trust him in the spot and it’s unlikely that he struggles badly. Cole allowed three runs or less in 23 of his 30 regular season starts. Boston is 7-1 Under in its last eight games. 8* Under Yankees/Red Sox |
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10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
8* Over Panthers/Cowboys (1:00 ET): Dallas is a last-second FG away from being 3-0. Since losing 31-29 to the Bucs on Opening Night, America’s Team has bounced back with wins over the Chargers (on a last second FG) and the Eagles Monday Night. The offense is coming off a 41-point effort and has run for an average of 179 yards in its two wins. You can’t forget about QB Dak Prescott either. He threw for over 400 yards against Tampa Bay. As expected, the Cowboys are very good offensively. Carolina is 3-0 SU for the first time since 2015 when it made the Super Bowl with Cam Newton as MVP. Like Dallas, the Panthers are also 3-0 ATS. Their defense is #1 in the league in yards allowed and #2 in scoring. But they’ve been fortunate to face two rookie QBs (one a backup) and Jameis Winston. This will be - by far - their toughest assignment of the young season. The team has gone Under in six straight games dating back to last season. But I see that streak coming to an end here. The Panthers will be without RB Christian McCaffery. However, QB Sam Darnold is off B2B 300+ yard games as he looks to win three straight starts for the first time in his career. The Cowboys’ defense gives up over 400 yards per game, so even without McCaffery, the Panthers should move the ball and score. They would seem to have an advantage due to being off a “mini-bye” (played last Thursday) while Dallas played on MNF. But Prescott has averaged 347 yards passing his last three times playing on a short week. 8* Over Panthers/Cowboys |
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10-01-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
10* Under Red Sox/Nationals (7:05 ET): An inability to score runs has hurt Boston at the worst possible time as the Red Sox head into the final weekend of the regular season in a tenuous battle for the final playoff spot in the American League. Tied with Seattle and only a game up on Toronto for the second Wild Card, the Red Sox have dropped five of six and scored three runs or less in all five losses. Now they won’t have a DH as they head to Washington for an interleague series against the Nationals. If you are assuming that a matchup versus a last place team should guarantee the Red Sox success over the weekend, then you better think again. They just dropped two of three to the 100+ loss Orioles, a series where every game went Under the total. The Under is 5-0 in Boston’s last five games overall. I’m a little shocked that the total is so high for tonight’s game, considering we’re playing under “NL rules.” The Under is also 19-5-2 the last 26 times the Red Sox have been road favorites (as they are here). I like taking the Under when you’ve got two lefties on the mound, especially in Interleague play. It’s not like the hitters are all that familiar with either starting pitcher in this game. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has never faced the Nats before and Washington’s Jesse Rogers has never faced the Red Sox before. Rodriguez has a 2.94 ERA his L3 starts while Rogers is at 2.08. The Nationals could only score 11 runs in three games at Coors Field this week and are 14-5 Under following an off day. 10* Under Red Sox/Nationals |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL OVER 62 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Virginia/Miami FL (7:30 ET): Miami was ranked #14 in the preseason, but “The U” has failed to impress so far. Their only wins have come against Appalachian State (by two) and FCS Central Connecticut State. Blowout losses to Alabama and Michigan State dropped the ‘Canes out of the rankings entirely and now they are playing without QB D’Eriq King. But I do think they’re going to be able to put a substantial number of points on the board this week. They scored 69 last week without King and now face a defense that’s given up 96 points the last two games. Virginia’s offense has put up over 1,000 yards in the last two games, but that hasn’t been enough as the woeful defense surrendered 1,173 yards and they lost both games by 20 points! North Carolina blitzed them for 59 points and almost 700 yards. The Cavaliers outgained Wake Forest last Thursday, but that didn’t matter in a 37-17 loss. The defense let the Demon Deacons score on each of its first seven possessions! Again, no matter who is in at QB tonight for Miami, they are going to be able to move the ball and score. But Virginia can obviously move the ball as well. QB Brennan Armstrong has already twice set a career-high in passing yardage this season. In fact, he set a school record with 554 yards vs. UNC. This is the nation’s top passing offense (430.5 YPG) and Armstrong also leads his team in rushing (552 yards in four games). Look for the Hoos to score far more than they did LW vs. Wake when they had four 30+ yard drives end with no points (two went 67+ yds). Both defenses have given up 37+ points twice, so I'm surprised both teams are 3-1 Under. This has “shootout” written all over it. 10* Over Virginia/Miami FL |
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09-30-21 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
8* Under Angels/Rangers (2:05 ET): The Angels and Rangers wrap up a three-game series in Arlington this afternoon. So far, each team has prevailed one time. The Rangers took the opener 5-2 and then the Halos bounced back last night to win 7-2, thanks to Shohei Ohtani. I’m going to go ahead and predict this will be the lowest scoring game of this series. Before yesterday, six of the previous seven meetings had stayed Under the total. The Under is on a 5-1 run for Texas if they allow 5+ runs in the previous game. Alex Cobb gets the start Thursday afternoon for the Angels. Besides Ohtani, Cobb has been the team’s best starting pitcher this season. He has allowed 1 or 0 ER in six consecutive starts and has a 1.15 ERA in the last three. Texas is by far the lowest scoring team in the American League (3.8 rpg) so this matchup seems well-suited to continue Cobb’s recent strong run. When he inevitably departs, I’ll remain confident as last night the LA bullpen retired the final 12 hitters in order with seven strikeouts. Last night was also just the second time in 10 games that the Angels finished with 10 or more hits. So they are no offensive juggernaut either. In nine of their last 16 games, they’ve scored three runs or less. I thought that rookie Glenn Otto, who starts for Texas tonight, pitched pretty well in his last outing. He gave up only two runs in five innings of work. The problem was the Rangers didn’t score any runs themselves. At least here, Otto is facing a team that averages less than 4.0 runs in day games. 8* Under Angels/Rangers |
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09-28-21 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Marlins/Mets (4:10 ET): Two cold teams that typically don’t hit well to begin with are playing a seven-inning game. Both the Marlins and Mets enter this series on five-game losing streaks. Miami scored just five runs in its last series while the Mets scored only six in theirs. The last two times these teams played, they combined for three and five runs and those were nine-inning games. So, yeah, I’m taking the Under in Game 1 of this Tuesday doubleheader. No park has seen a fewer total number of runs scored than Citi Field has this season. The average per game is just 7.3 and again, this game is shorter than usual. Not only are the Mets the lowest scoring home team in the majors this season (3.7 rpg), they allow the third fewest runs per game at home (3.6). The fact Miami only averages 3.8 rpg on the road (26th) further strengthens my belief in how this game will go. There’s a good chance the Mets will only come up to bat six times. That’s because they are heavily favored and likely to be ahead going into the last inning. Marcus Stroman obviously has a heavy influence on this line. The Under is 10-3 in his 13 home starts and he has a 2.13 career ERA vs. Miami. Not to be overlooked though is Trevor Rogers, who gets the starting nod for the Marlins. He has a 1.20 ERA in three career starts vs. the Mets. His numbers this season are right on par with Stroman’s, 10* Under Marlins/Mets |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
10* Under Eagles/Cowboys (8:20 ET): Sometime during the course of today, you’ll probably hear that seven of the NFL’s eight primetime games have gone Over the total. I had the one Under, which was Thursday’s Carolina-Houston game. There have been a lot of high-powered offenses featured in these primetime games, which makes sense as that is who the NFL wants on national TV. But when I think “high-powered” I don’t necessarily think of the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles. I’m taking the Under on MNF. The Cowboys have a high-powered offense, but here they’ll be facing an Eagles’ defense that has surrendered a total of 23 points in two games. Philly is allowing just 4.4 yards per play and 283 yards per game. The teams they’ve faced - Atlanta and San Francisco - certainly aren’t terrible offensive teams. Both games also stayed Under. Going back to the middle of last season, the Under is 9-3 in the Eagles’ last 12 games. I think this defense can do a good job of holding Dallas in check tonight. The Cowboys only scored 20 points in last week’s win over the Chargers. This is Dallas’ 1st home game of the season and they’re hoping the recent trend continues of the home team dominating this NFC East rivalry. The home team is 5-0 SU the L5 meetings. I think the Cowboys defense is going to play better than expected tonight. Hurts only completed 12 passes last week and just one to a WR after the 1Q. The Eagles have not scored more than 23 points in any of the previous four meetings with the Cowboys. 10* Under Eagles/Cowboys |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
10* Under Texans/Panthers (8:20 ET): Houston is going into Thursday night with a backup QB, Davis Mills, who I saw Sunday and wasn’t the least bit impressive. Just the third QB to be drafted out of Stanford in my lifetime, the rookie played the entire 2H vs. Cleveland and completed just 8 of 18 pass attempts for 102 yards and a touchdown. Now, on a short week, he’s going to be facing a much better defense and it’s really difficult to envision a scenario where the Texans put up a lot of points. Carolina is a surprising 2-0 after holding New Orleans to seven points and 128 total yards on Sunday. Remember that the Saints put up 38 points, led by Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes, in Week 1 vs. Green Bay. So that was a really impressive performance last week by Matt Rhule’s defense. This is the first time the Panthers have ranked #1 in the league in total defense since Week 10 of the 2017 season. Thus far they have given up an average of just 190 YPG and a total of only 21 points. But with Sam Darnold as their starting QB, there’s still questions about this Carolina offense. The Panthers have covered seven straight road games, but are also 0-6 ATS their L6 Thursday games, so something will have to give here. On the same note, the Panthers are 5-0 Under their L5 regular season games while Houston is 4-0 Over its L4. Considering how few points I expect the Texans to score here, Under has to be the call as you’ve got a rookie QB making his 1st career start (on a short week!) against the league’s top rated defense. The Over is 6-0 in NFL primetime games so far this season. We’re due for an Under. 10* Under Texans/Panthers |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Marshall was carried by its defense last season as that unit led the country in scoring (13.0 PPG allowed) and at stopping the run (96 YPG). That got them to the C-USA Title Game, but a three-game losing streak at the end of the season cost former HC Doc Holliday his job. I thought the coaching change was a bit shocking, but there’s no denying that they’ve seen offensive improvement in Huntington under Charles Huff. Through three games, the Thundering Herd is averaging 43.7 PPG! How ironic then that the defense let them down last week in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina! Appalachian State lost its place as the standard-bearer of the Sun Belt last season, finishing second to Coastal Carolina in the East Division. When they faced the Chanticleers, the Mountaineers led most of the way but ended up losing 34-23 in Conway. Their only other two losses were to Louisiana and … Marshall! The loss to Marshall took place in Huntington and saw ASU get held to a season low of 7 points. This year, ASU is off to a 2-1 start including a win over the same East Carolina team that just beat Marshall. Following a 25-23 loss to Miami, the Mountaineers bounced back with a 44-10 thrashing of FCS Elon last week. I don't think this game will be as low-scoring as last season, but I still like the Under. Last week’s performance by the Marshall defense was an aberration. The team led 38-21 going into the 4Q only to be outscored 21-0 the rest of the way. East Carolina games almost always end up being high-scoring. Appalachian State will be the best defense that the Thundering Herd have faced thus far. The Mountaineers have yet to allow more than 25 points in any game. Of the six games these teams have played, only one (Marshall-ECU) saw more than 56 total pts scored. 10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State |
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09-22-21 | Elche v. Villarreal UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -135 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
10* Under Elche/Villarreal (4:00 ET): It’s pretty hard to fathom that Villarreal is still winless at this point of the La Liga season. But on the bright side, they also have yet to lose a match. The Yellow Submarine have drawn four straight times to open 2021/22, leaving them in 14th place and six points out of Champions League position. It’s a far cry from last year’s 7th place finish where I thought they were pretty much on par with the top four. Now Elche is a side that I thought was lucky to escape relegation last season. They had the lowest xPt total in all of La Liga - by a pretty wide margin - and ended up just two points clear of the drop zone, in 17th place. The gap between them and 13th place was larger than the gap between them and the foot of the table. Shockingly, they are currently two points ahead of Villarreal at the moment and 12th in the table, having taken six points from this season’s first five matches. They are unbeaten in their last three, having drawn both Sevilla and Levante with a 1-0 win over Getafe sandwiched in between. These are two of the lowest scoring sides in all of La Liga. Three of Villarreal’s four draws have been 0-0 with the only goals scored and conceded coming in a 2-2 final with Atletico Madrid when they gave up an own goal in stoppage time. With one game in hand compared to most of the league, the tendency is to say there’s no reason for LY’s Europa League winners to panic. But they also haven’t won since defeating Manchester United last May. It was a winless preseason. They will be without Gerard Moreno, their biggest attacking threat, on Wednesday and that’s a significant loss. As for Elche, there have been only six total goals scored in their five fixtures thus far and none have seen more than two goals scored. 10* Under Elche/Villarreal |
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09-19-21 | Raiders v. Steelers UNDER 47 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* Under Raiders/Steelers (1:00 ET) My Under bet Monday night looked pretty solid for three quarters. There were only 27 points scored between the Ravens and Raiders, a matchup where the oddsmakers’ total was a lofty 50.5. But then came a deluge of 4Q points with the teams doubling the scoring. By the time overtime was needed to settle things, the game had already gone Over. It was the sixth straight regular season game to go Over for Las Vegas, the longest active streak in the league right now. That’s going to be tested this week as they are matched up against one of the better defenses in the league. The Steelers pulled out a surprise 23-16 win in Buffalo last Sunday. The game got off to a rocky start for the Black & Gold when they allowed a long return after the opening kickoff. But they held the Bills to just a field goal on that drive and would allow only one TD the entire game. That was a very good offense they faced, much better than what they’ll see here. At the same time, Pittsburgh’s offense remains a bit of a concern with an aging Ben Roethlisberger behind center. They gained only 252 total yards vs. the Bills and the only offensive TD that they scored came with good starting field goal position. RB Josh Jacobs is out for the Raiders this week, so it’s going to be difficult to move the ball on the ground. Not that I would expect them to be all that effective doing so, even with Jacobs on the field. There was major turnover with the LV offensive line this offseason and we all saw what the Steelers’ defensive front was able to do to Bills QB Josh Allen last week. A short week and early start time do the Raiders no favors either. However, they have had the Steelers’ number in recent years, covering six of the last seven meetings with five outright upsets. So let’s go with the Under as neither team will move the ball all that effectively. 8* Under Raiders/Steelers |
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09-17-21 | Indians v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* Under Indians/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees could not finish off the sweep in Baltimore yesterday as they went down 3-2. They were one strike away from winning, but a wild pitch in the bottom of the ninth allowed the Orioles to tie the game and then it was over in the 10th. The loss leaves the Yankees one-half game back of the Blue Jays and Red Sox for the Wild Card as they’ve now dropped 13 of 19 overall. A favorable six-game homestand begins tonight with a visit from Cleveland, but I have my doubts about a Yankees team that is only averaging 4.3 runs per game this season. Take the Under here. Cleveland comes in on the heels of a 12-3 win at Minnesota on Wednesday. The Tribe is looking to make it B2B wins for the first time in over two weeks here. But despite what they did at the plate 48 hours ago, the Indians are also not a strong offensive club. They’ve been no hit THREE times in 2021, the most recent one coming less than a week ago. Prior to erupting for 12 runs in their last game, the Indians had scored three or fewer in eight of nine contests. I expect them to revert back to those previous struggles tonight against a familiar face in Corey Kluber. Kluber, who won two Cy Youngs with Cleveland, has had a bit of a rocky stretch since returning from the injured list. But with a 2.79 ERA at Yankees Stadium this year, it’s only a matter of time before he gets back on track. For the Yankees’ sake, Kluber better be sharp tonight because I’m also expecting a strong outing from Cleveland starter Zach Plesac, who has a 2.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts. Plesac had been getting a ton of run support before his team was no-hit his last time out. The amount of run support (7+ runs in six straight starts) made little sense given the Indians’ offensive woes and as we saw in the last start, it’s not likely to continue. 10* Under Indians/Yankees |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
10* Over Giants/Football Team (8:20 ET): So with last week’s 27-13 loss to Denver, the Giants have now gone Under in eight consecutive games (dating back to last season, obviously). But this week’s total is even lower than Week 1 and as you can see, the G-Men and Broncos were very close to going Over the total last Sunday. They would have gone Over had both teams not fumbled inside the red zone. The Giants’ fumble proved especially costly as they were only down 17-7 in the second half when QB Daniel Jones gave the ball away. Jones did throw for 267 yards though and account for two scores. Washington is already on its second starting QB as Taylor Heinicke will replace Ryan Fitzpatrick. This move comes not by choice, but rather because of injury. Fitzpatrick will miss as many as eight weeks due to sustaining a hip injury in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Chargers. I thought, given the circumstances, that Heinicke performed admirably last week. He completed 11 of 15 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. Remember that he started last year’s playoff game against Tampa Bay. While the Football Team went down to the (eventual Super Bowl champion) Bucs that day, 31-23, don’t blame Heinicke. He actually threw for 300+ yards in the loss. The Giants’ defense he faces this week isn’t as good as the Bucs .. or the Chargers for that matter. Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley is listed as questionable, but is expected to play Thursday. Given the Giants’ history against Washington, maybe they don’t even need him. They’ve beaten their old division rival five straight times, the last four all coming with Jones as the starter. Jones has thrown for eight touchdowns in the four wins. Look for him to develop more of a rapport with WR Kenny Golladay, who had four catches for 64 yards last week. Based on them allowing 400+ yards last week against the Chargers, I think it’s fair to say this Washington defense may not be as strong as it was a year ago. These teams are a combined 14-4 their L18 TNF games. 10* Over Giants/Football Team |
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09-16-21 | Tigers v. Rays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
10* Under Tigers/Rays (7:10 ET): This is a rematch from last weekend, a series in which the Tigers surprisingly won two of the three games. The three games were all pretty high-scoring. Each had nine or more total runs scored with the two Tigers’ wins seeing 14 and 15 total runs scored. Detroit continued to play the role of spoiler earlier this week by Milwaukee twice. So that’s four wins in five games for them, all against current division leaders. But all the wins also came at home where they are now a respectable 39-36 on the year. I expect them to struggle more on the road this weekend, especially at the plate. Tampa Bay is still going to be fine, even after losing two of three in Toronto to start the week. Their lead in the AL East is still eight games and they are the only team in the American League with 90 wins on the season. They could not get much offense going in Toronto though and that’s a bit of a concern. The Rays scored just six runs in the three games. Now they face a pitching staff that held Milwaukee to just one run and seven hits the last two days. It’ll be Tyler Alexander starting for the Tigers and not only did he just hold the Rays to one run in 4 ⅓ IP last week, he has a 1.80 ERA and 1.133 WHIP his L3 starts. But for Tampa Bay, the best thing about being back home is that they don’t give up many runs here. They allow just 3.3 per game, the fewest by any AL team. Opponents are batting just .216 for the year at Tropicana Field. Kevin Cash will go with an opener on Thursday night, Louis Head, before giving the baseball to Dietrich Enns. Enns looked dominant the last time we saw him as he tossed four shutout innings and didn’t even allow a single baserunner. He had six strikeouts as well. The Tigers only scored five runs the last two days and two of the last four games have seen them finish with only three hits. This has all the makings of a low-scoring series opener. 10* Under Tigers/Rays |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 51 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 18 m | Show |
10* Under Ravens/Raiders (8:15 ET): Over the course of training camp, no team was hit harder by injuries than Baltimore. The running back position in particular has suffered some incredible attrition. It began with JK Dobbins to a season-ending knee injury. Then Dobbins’ backup Justice Hill suffered an Achilles injury. With their two top running backs done for the year before a meaningful game had even been played, the Ravens next turned to Gus Edwards. Guess what? He too suffered a serious knee injury in practice Thursday, the same day that CB Marcus Peters also sustained a knee injury! With all these injuries at the RB position, there will be tremendous pressure on QB Lamar Jackson to produce this year. Being that he is a former MVP, it’s not like Jackson is doomed. But Jackson and the offense took a step back in 2020 despite facing a relatively weak set of pass defenses. They dropped down to 27.3 PPG overall and 25.2 on the road. Had it not been for a high success rate on third downs and in the red zone, the offense's numbers probably would have dropped even further. With Ty’Son Edwards and Le’Veon Bell set to be the Ravens’ only available running backs, that dimension of the offense simply will not be as strong as it was in years’ past. Las Vegas will finally get to play in front of fans in Allegiant Stadium (opened last year) Monday night. QB Derek Carr might have a 4-2 SU record on MNF but has posted a 46.0 QBR in those games, which is well below average. One area that I am not really worried about Baltimore is on defense. They allowed only 18.5 PPG last year. The Raiders’ receiving corps is not very good and the running game will probably be worse in 2020 due to the loss of three starting offensive linemen from a year ago. Yes, the Over was 13-3 in LV games last season. But now it’s 2021 and things will be different. 10* Under Ravens/Raiders |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams OVER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
10* Over Bears/Rams (8:25 ET): The Rams went Under in every home game last season (8-0). But with an offense that should be better and a defense that is likely to be worse (compared to last season, that is), I look for that streak to come to an end in Week 1 vs. the Bears. Matthew Stafford is now the QB1 for the Rams, replacing Jared Goff. This is a clear upgrade in my eyes. Stafford lost RB Cam Akers to an injury in the preseason, but the Rams have averaged 32.2 PPG in four season openers under HC Sean McVay. Even with the Bears’ defense being well regarded, look for the Rams to put up points on SNF. Bears HC Matt Nagy has made the curious decision to go with Andy Dalton as his starting QB for the season opener. Everyone in Chicago wants to see Justin Fields, but they’ll have to wait apparently. Dalton’s career record in primetime may not be good, but I do think the Bears will score more than expected in this game. That may sound strange considering the Rams had the top ranked defense in the league a year ago. But down the stretch last season, Nagy got his offense humming. They scored 30+ points in four straight games, something that no other Bears team had ever done and that was with Mitch Trubisky playing quarterback. This is actually the fourth straight season that these teams will be playing in primetime. The home team has won every time with the Rams holding a 2-1 SU/ATS series edge. All three games have stayed Under, none of them seeing more than 34 total points scored. But it’s a new season with new players and I really think it’s going to be different this time around. I don’t think either defense will be as good as last year. The Rams lost four starters on that side of the ball to free agency. The Bears’ secondary is a real weak spot and remember Stafford knows this team well. 10* Over Bears/Rams |
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09-12-21 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
10* Over Rockies/Phillies (1:05 ET): I won with the Phillies yesterday. They homered three times en route to a 6-1 victory. The win was much needed for them as they’d dropped the first two games of this series with the Rockies and were starting to fall off the pace in the races for the 2nd NL Wild Card and the NL East pennant. The Phils enter Sunday 2.5 and 3.5 games back in those respective races. Colorado, a non-contender that’s 20-51 on the road, is a team they should obviously beat again. But I like this game’s chances of going Over more than I do Philadelphia winning. Aaron Nola has pitched pretty well at home for Philly this season. But he’s also been plagued by inconsistency all throughout 2021. He comes in with a 6.91 ERA over his L3 starts, largely due to a poor effort in Washington on September 2nd where he gave up six runs in four innings. Nola has a 4.57 ERA for the season and each of those last three starts have gone Over. I know that the Rockies typically don’t do much scoring on the road. But they did score 11 runs here on Friday. The Over is 10-4-1 in their L15 games at Philadelphia. Nola has given up five or more runs six different times in 2021. Colorado better score plenty of runs today, if they have any hopes of winning. I say this because they probably shouldn’t expect much from starter Ryan Feltner. Feltner will be making just his second career start on Sunday. This is someone who was pitching in Double-A not all that long ago. On the very first pitch of his big-league career, Feltner allowed a home run. He’d go on to allow a total of six runs in 2 ⅔ IP in that start, including three home runs. Something else to consider is that both of these teams have bad bullpens. 10* Over Rockies/Phillies |
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09-11-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
10* Under Marlins/Braves (7:20 ET): Atlanta is a big favorite on the ML Saturday night and for good reason. They beat the Marlins 6-2 on Friday and have Charlie Morton set to go tonight. Morton is 13-5 this season and is coming off B2B quality starts where he gave up a total of three runs and five hits in 13 IP. Both of those starts came on the road, but fear not - Morton has a 1.128 WHIP at home. His previous two starts against Miami have seen him go six innings and allow two runs on three hits, then seven innings while allowing no runs and two hits. It figures to be another long night at the plate for a Miami team that struck out 17 times on Friday. But with the ML being so high, we’re forced to scramble for other options here. I like the Under here as the Braves scored five of their six runs in one inning yesterday. They’ve struck out 10 or more times in three straight games. Miami has struck out 10+ times in six of their last eight games, so there’s been a lot of “swinging and missing” from these teams of late. Atlanta probably is a bit lucky to have scored 13 runs in their last two games on 17 hits. Elieser Hernandez, who starts today for Miami, has 1.67 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Braves. Hernandez normally doesn’t go more than five innings, but it’s worth noting that he’s given up more than ER only once in six tries this year. The Under has hit three of the last four times he has started. I still expect the home team to win today (obviously) and given that feeling, it is very likely we won’t have to play the bottom of the ninth. That’s always a boon when holding an Under ticket and with Miami scoring three runs or fewer in eight of its last 10 games, this figures to be another low-scoring contest. The Under is 5-0 in the Marlins’ L5 games where they’d given up 5+ runs in the previous game. 10* Under Marlins/Braves |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss UNDER 76 | Top | 24-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss (8:00 ET): Well, the big news here is that Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin will NOT be on the sidelines due to testing positive for COVID-19. This is certainly not a position the Rebels expected to be in after Kiffin had announced, just earlier this month, that the program had achieved a 100% vaccination rate. In the wake of this shocking news, I’m really surprised that we’ve seen little movement with either the side or the total. You have to think Kiffin’s absence on the sideline will loom large. The total has remained extremely high and thus I’m going with the Under Monday night. The Ole Miss offense was very good last year and figures to be again in 2021. But not having Kiffin will impact this side of the ball more than it will to the defense. It was only about four months ago that the O-Line coach was fired after the Spring Game. As of press time, it is not even known who will be serving as Ole Miss HC for this game. What is known is they are facing a Louisville defense that ranked fourth in the ACC in yards allowed last year. Seven starters are back from that group, which should be strong yet again. The Ole Miss defense also figures to be better than it was in 2020, if only because it can’t be any worse. The Rebels had the lowest ranked defense in the SEC a season ago. While there are definitely some great defenses in that conference, Ole Miss definitely struggled. With an offense that was excellent and a defense that was terrible, Rebels’ games averaged 77.5 PPG last season. I don’t think we’re getting to that number Monday night. Through Saturday’s games, the Under is 47-26-1 this CFB season. Even if Kiffin were coaching, this number seems like a “tough ask” in the opening game. 10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss |
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09-04-21 | Alabama v. Miami-FL UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Alabama/Miami FL (3:30 ET): We all know about Alabama. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are off another championship season and will be favored for the 81st straight time this week as they open the 2021 season against #14 Miami. It speaks volumes that the Tide are this large of a favorite against a top 15 team at a neutral setting. But then again, they are 11-2 ATS in season openers under Saban. When faced with a ranked opponent in the first game, ‘Bama is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS with every win coming by double digits. In fact those six wins were by an average of almost 24 PPG! Atlanta has been kind to Saban through the years. So this is probably not the appropriate time to make the annual declaration that “The U is back!” Miami is just 3-10 ATS vs. teams ranked #1 or #2 going back to ‘93. But I do think that the Hurricanes’ defense can keep the team in it and thus ensure a pretty low-scoring game. This Alabama offense is YOUNG. There are 15 first or second year players on the two-deep with that unit, including QB Bryce Young, three offensive linemen and four wide receivers. Plus you’ve got a new playcaller in Bill O’ Brien. Meanwhile, Miami’s defense is a lot more experienced than it was a year ago. Of course Alabama’s defense will be pretty good too! They had 21 sacks over the final five games last year. They too are experienced with seven starters back. It is thought there are four future NFL starters among the linebacking group. Miami QB D’Eriq King is very good, but this one will be one of the best defenses he’s ever faced. He’s also coming off knee surgery. The Canes won’t score much. 8* Under Alabama/MIami |
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09-03-21 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
9* Under Rangers/Angels (9:40 ET): On paper, this is a game the Angels SHOULD win. They have Shohei Ohtani on the mound. They are facing a Rangers team that is an atrocious 16-49 on the road, including 5-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250. Conversely, the Angels are 9-1 as home favorites this year in the -175 to -250 price range. The Halos also just took two of three from a Yankees team that had been as hot as any team in baseball. But I’m not confident in the home team scoring many runs in this game. Thus, Under is the right play in this series opener. The Angels currently sit two games below .500 and are fourth in the AL West. There’s really no realistic path towards the playoffs. But at least they can relish the fact they have Ohtani on their roster. The two-way star did surprisingly struggle his last time out, giving up three homers and four runs in a loss to Baltimore. But prior to that one bad outing, he’d gone 5-0 his previous six starts, allowing only seven runs in 40 IP. Texas is the lowest scoring team in the American League and Ohtani is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA against them. There have been only four times this season where Ohtani allowed more than 2 ER. None of them came consecutively. So he’ll bounce back tonight. The Angels are hitting only .214 the last seven games, so they have their issues at the plate as well. Tonight they’ll be facing Glenn Otto, who in his big league debut last Friday held Houston (highest scoring team in baseball) to just two hits in five innings. Otto didn’t allow a run or walk and had seven strikeouts. Unfortunately, the Rangers ended up losing 5-4, but for Otto it was a very strong effort. When these teams met in Arlington last month, three of the four games saw five or fewer total runs scored. 9* Under Rangers/Angels |
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09-03-21 | Braves v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Braves/Rockies (8:40 ET): These teams opened up a four-game series last night. Early on, it looked to be the typical high-scoring game at Coors Field. After the top of the fifth, the Braves led 6-5. But then the scoring halted and 6-5 was how the game ended. It was a critical win for Atlanta, whose lead in the NL East is down to two games over the surging Phillies. While the Rockies are terrible on the road (18-50 record), they are a team to be taken seriously at home where they’ve gone 43-23 this year. So I’m not going to make a play on the ML here. I think another (relatively) low-scoring game is on tap. Take the Under. I do think the Braves will end up winning their division. My confidence stems from the fact they are currently the only team in the NL East with a positive YTD run differential. It’s not like they are barely “in the black” either. They have scored 89 more runs than they’ve allowed. They give up only 3.8 runs per game on the road and have to feel pretty good about their chances here due to a 17-5 record this season as a road favorite of -125 to -175 (42-14 L3 seasons). Plus they have Huascar Ynoa on the bump and he’s got a 2.06 ERA and 0.866 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which stayed Under. Ynoa has allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts. But what has me on the Under rather than the Braves here is the fact Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela has also been pitching lights out of late. He has a 1.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts after an incredible outing on Sunday where he tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Dodgers. He retired the first 12 batters he faced. It was the fourth straight quality start for Senzatela, who has allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. None of Atlanta’s last 12 games have seen more than 11 total runs scored (Under is 9-1-2). The Rockies are 6-1 Under their L7 games. 10* Under Braves/Rockies |
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09-02-21 | Bowling Green v. Tennessee OVER 60.5 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee (8:00 ET): It’s been a LONG time since Bowling Green last tasted victory. You’d have to go all the way back to November 2nd, 2019 when they defeated Akron 35-6. The MAC was the last conference to commence play in 2020 so the Falcons played just five games last season. Not only did they lose all five, but the closest the Falcons got to anybody was 25 points. They were outscored 225-57! It’s an eight-game losing streak that they’re on entering 2021. They are 3-14 SU the L2 seasons, both wins coming when favored. They are 0-9 SU/ATS on the road during that time. Meanwhile, Tennessee is starting over...again. Josh Heupel will be the once proud program’s fifth coach since the dismissal of Phil Fulmer back in 2008. He inherits a team that went 3-7 SU in 2020 and lost seven of its last eight games. While nowhere close to the doldrums that Scot Loeffler finds himself in at BGSU, Heupel really has his work cut out for him in the rugged SEC. But for now, all he needs to do is beat up on a clearly overmatched opponent in the season opener. The Vols are massive favorites Thursday night in Knoxville with the line quickly approaching five touchdowns. Tennessee didn’t do a lot of scoring last year. But I expect Heupel to look to put a lot of points on the board here. It’s an easy opportunity to impress the fanbase in the first game. Bowling Green’s defense allowed more than 300 yards per game rushing in 2020. So the Volunteers should be able to move the ball at will. Heupel is going with Michigan transfer Joe Milton III as his starting QB, ahead of Va Tech transfer Hendon Hooker and holdover Harrison Bailey. Bowling Green returns its starting QB from LY, Matt McDonald, and I expect his completion percentage to improve. The Falcons will score enough on a Vols defense that gave up 30.1 PPG LY to help send this one Over. 10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota UNDER 63 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota (8:00 ET): After losing to Alabama in the National Championship Game last January, Ohio State opens the new season ranked #4 in the country. They look to continue their Big 10 dominance on Thursday when they travel to face Minnesota. HC Ryan Day has done a tremendous job in Columbus and the 2020 squad was among the most explosive in the history of the program. But the Buckeyes have a new man under center, redshirt freshman CJ Stroud, who takes over for Justin Fields. With the new starting QB, I don’t think OSU is going to put a ton of points on the board … yet. Minnesota was a disappointing 3-4 SU for PJ Fleck in 2020. That was a big drop off after going 11-2 SU in 2019. The Golden Gophers return most of their starters on offense, including QB Tanner Morgan. But Morgan’s top target, WR Chris Autman-Bell, suffered a leg injury in practice two weeks ago and is listed as a “game-time” decision for Thursday. I know that Mohamed Ibrahim, voted the Big 10’s best running back last year, is ready to go. But if the Gophers think this Ohio State defense is going to be as susceptible to the big play as it was last year, then they are in for a rude awakening. This is a high total, likely based on how explosive the Ohio State offense was LAST season. But Fields is now in the NFL. I think there will be some early growing pains with Stroud. But the saving grace will be the improvement on the defensive end. There’s just no way the Buckeyes will rank 122nd in pass defense again. Morgan will struggle if Autman-Bell is out. His other primary target from last year, Rashod Bateman, is gone. Minnesota’s defense also figures to be better after allowing 40+ in the first two games of 2020. None of the last three meetings between these teams have seen more than 55 total pts scored. 8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota |
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08-28-21 | Micheal Gillmore v. Andre Petroski UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Gillmore/Petroski (10:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Middleweight Division (185 lbs). Both Micheal Gillmore and Andre Petroski are making their UFC debuts here. Gillmore brings in a 5-3 career mark while Petroski is 5-1. The latter is a massive favorite here and likely to end this one rather quickly. But rather than take a chance with those massive odds, I’ll bet the Under as we’re then covered in case Petroski were to get caught with a big shot. All we need is this fight to be over by the halfway point of the second round. All five of Petroski’s wins have come via stoppage, three of which were in the first round. But he is off a loss in October to Aaron Jeffery where he was stopped in the second round. Then came a stint on “The Ultimate Fighter” show. Fights from that show don’t count in the overall record, but it’s worth mentioning neither went past round two for Petroski. He submitted Aaron Phillips, but then was eliminated himself via submission at the hands of Bryan Battle. Based on Petroski’s resume, there’s just no reason to expect this fight to last very long. Gillmore was a castmate of Petroski on “The Ultimate Fighter.” He was actually an alternate for the show and his stay was a short one. He lost his first fight, getting stopped by Gilbert Urbina. Prior to that, there were lots of stoppages on Gillmore’s career resume, win or lose. Every loss in his career has come by submission. Four of his official eight fights have ended in the first round. I just can’t see this fight lasting long with Petroski very likely to assert control early and get the finish. 10* Under Gillmore/Petroski |
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08-28-21 | Darren Stewart v. Dustin Jacoby OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
8* Over Stewart/Jacoby (8:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Division (205 lbs). We’ve got Darren Stewart, who is 12-7 overall but has a losing record (5-6) in the UFC. Dustin Jacoby is 14-5-1 overall in his career with a 2-2-1 record in the UFC. My viewpoint is that this fight is very likely to go to the scorecards, so I’ll bet the Over 2.5 rounds. We just need this one to make it to the halfway point of round three to cash. Jacoby is actually in his second stint with the UFC. The first didn’t go well as he lost both fights and was then let go. That was all the way back in 2012. He definitely seems like a better fighter now as he’s unbeaten in his last five fights, the last of which was a draw against Ion Cutelaba in May. Three of the previous four, all victories, went to the scorecards. Being the larger of the two fighters here, Jacoby may very well “scare off” a usually aggressive Stewart and that likely leads to a pretty methodical and quite frankly boring fight. Stewart hasn’t done much winning of late as he’s gotten his hand raised just once in his last five fights. That includes a no contest against Eryk Anders in March due to Anders landing an illegal knee. Stewart lost the rematch with Anders in June, but that was by decision. Even in the midst of a rough stretch, Stewart has proven difficult to beat. He hasn’t been stopped since 2017 and six of his last eight fights have gone to the scorecards. 8* Over Stewart/Jacoby |
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08-28-21 | Royals v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
8* Under Royals/Mariners (4:10 ET): Kansas City has hit a grand slam in three consecutive games. It’s only the fifth time since 1895 that a team has done that and last year’s Padres are the only team in MLB history to do it four straight games. As small as the odds were that the Royals would do it again yesterday, they are even smaller now. The last two grand slams have come from catcher Salvador Perez and under normal circumstances he might not even play today (day game after a night game). He’ll likely lobby to get in the lineup, but don’t expect another grand slam. I’m taking the Under today. If you’ve been following my analysis this season, then you know it pleased me some to see the Mariners lose by one run in extra innings last night. This is a team that’s grossly overachieved this season. They are 69-60, but have a -59 run differential. A team with that run differential you’d expect to have a 58-71 record.The key has been a 26-15 record in one-run games and an 11-5 record in extra innings. But they got a “taste of their own medicine” last night with an 8-7 defeat in a game that went 12 innings. It was supposed to be Carlos Hernandez starting for the Royals on Saturday, but he was called upon last night when Kris Bubic couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning. Hernandez did an excellent job keeping his team in the game, retiring 14 batters in a row. Seattle hits just .210 at home and has the worst overall team batting average in baseball. They are also bottom five in OBP, slugging and OPS. Daniel Lynch will now get the starting call for KC, keeping this a battle of lefties. He’s allowed just two runs in his last 12 IP. He’ll be opposed by Tyler Anderson, who has allowed 3 ER or less in nine consecutive starts. Despite all the grand slams, the Royals still only average 3.7 rpg on the road this season. 8* Under Royals/Mariners |
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08-26-21 | Royals v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* Under Royals/Mariners (10:10 ET): This will be the first time in over two years that these teams have faced off. That’s really odd considering they both hail from the American League, but last year’s schedule was dramatically altered because of the pandemic. They met eight times in 2019 and none of the games saw fewer than nine runs scored. But a lot can change in 2+ years. Neither of the teams are very strong offensively in 2021. I’m taking the Under in this battle of unfamiliar opponents. My thoughts on Seattle are well known. How they are still in Wild Card contention is a minor miracle. This is a team that’s been outscored by 56 runs this season, but is somehow 11 games above .500. They’ve gone 26-14 in one-run games and 11-4 in extra innings. Very fortunate. It’s also amazing that they can win with an offense that is so unproductive. Coming into this series, the Mariners are dead last in team batting average, 29th in OBP, 25th in slugging and 27th in OPS. They are hitting .209 for the year at home. Kansas City’s Brad Keller, who is off a quality start his last time out, should pitch well here. But so should Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi. He didn’t pitch well his last time out, but he was facing Houston, the highest scoring team in the big leagues. Kikuchi has generally pitched very well this season. That last trip to the mound was only the third time since April that he permitted more than 3 ER in a start. Kansas City, like Seattle, is bad offensively. They average only 3.7 rpg on the road. After being shut out on Tuesday, they scored five times yesterday. But four of those five runs came from a grand slam. 8* Under Royals/Mariners |
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08-26-21 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 11 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
8* Over Angels/Orioles (1:05 ET): At long last, Baltimore’s losing streak is over. They snapped a 19-game skid yesterday by beating the Angels 10-6. The win also snapped a four-game losing streak to the Angels this season. Now Thursday’s starter Keegan Akin will try and stop his own personal losing skid. Akin is still winless on the season and the team is 0-9 in his last nine starts. I can’t bet on him. Nor can I bet on the Angels’ Jaime Barria, who also has ugly looking numbers. Almost all of the Angels-Orioles matchups this year have turned into slugfests and this one should be no different. Take the Over. There were 16 total runs scored in yesterday’s and 22 scored in Tuesday’s game. The Angels won that one 14-8. Twenty runs in two games is pretty impressive and Los Angeles should continue to hit the cover off the ball today against Akin, who has an 8.87 ERA and 2.014 WHIP. The last time Akin faced the Angels, he gave up four runs in three innings. That game, an 8-7 loss for Baltimore, easily went Over the total. Akin almost never makes it past the fifth inning and (as I’m sure you could have guessed) the O’s bullpen (5.30 ERA) is pretty horrific. Barria’s numbers over his last three starts are nearly identical to Akin’s. He has a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP during that time. Last time out, he was tagged for five runs in two innings by a Cleveland team that is offensively challenged. While both these teams have had their fair share of struggles at the plate in August, it’s clear that the hitters are ahead of the pitchers in this series. The Over is 37-15 the last 52 times the Angels have been favored. Baltimore is 28-12-1 Over its last 41 home games. 8* Over Angels/Orioles |
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08-25-21 | Royals v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -116 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Royals/Astros (2:10 ET): Houston has had its fair share of difficulty beating Kansas City. The teams have met six times this month and it’s the Royals with the surprising 4-2 head to head advantage. But last night was a 4-0 shutout for the Astros, thanks to a superb outing from Luis Garcia. The Royals’ offense had been surging in recent days, but could only manage four hits against Garcia and four Astros’ relievers. I’m not shocked that it happened. For the season, KC is averaging just 3.7 runs per game on the road. So they were “due” to come back down to Earth. Look for the offensive regression to continue here. Houston has the highest runs per game average in baseball (5.4) but they have scored just eight times in the previous three games. Three of their four runs last night came in the first inning. Kansas City pitching has been pretty good of late. Only once in the last eight games have they allowed more than four runs. Mike Minor is set to start Wednesday afternoon and he allowed just three runs in 5 ⅔ IP when he faced the Astros last Thursday. The Under is 5-0-1 in Minor’s last six starts. Houston holds teams to 3.9 rpg and a .218 batting average here at home. Those numbers are obviously very good. Lance McCullers gets the starting nod today. He now has 10 wins on the year and has gone 7-3 over his L11 starts. He did not face the Royals in last week’s series. But he did hold Seattle to only two runs in his most recent start. There have been only four times all year where McCullers has allowed more than 3 ER. Assuming Houston is up, they won’t have to bat in the bottom of the ninth. 10* Under Royals/Astros |
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08-23-21 | Leicester v. West Ham United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
8* Over Leicester City/West Ham (3:00 ET): The second matchweek of the Premier League season ends Monday in London Stadium as West Ham United hosts Leicester City. The visitors were 1-0 winners last week over the Wolves. Jamie Vardy got the lone goal at King Power Stadium. Now the Foxes hit the road for the 1st time, looking to avenge a pair of losses to the Hammers from last season. West Ham were also winners in the opening week as they came from behind to defeat Newcastle United 4-2. The goal for Leicester this season is obviously to finish top four and gain entrance to the Champions League. That is something that has eluded them each of the last two years, both times due to late season swoons. In addition to beating the Wolves last week, Leicester also recently defeated Man City 1-0 (on a late penalty kick) to win the Community Shield. Going back to a couple of friendlies over the summer, the Foxes have conceded only one time in their last four matches. But West Ham scored three goals in each of its two wins over Leicester last season. The second nearly saw the Foxes pull off a comeback for the ages as they made it 3-2 after falling behind 3-0. The Hammers also couldn’t be denied last week against Newcastle United. Four different players got on the scoresheet for that one. Leicester was tied for the third most goals scored in the Premier League last season. West Ham was sixth. Expect to see plenty of scoring on Monday. 8* Over Leicester City/West Ham |
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08-21-21 | Jets v. Packers UNDER 31.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Jets/Packers (4:25 ET): The Under is now a remarkable 17-3 in all preseason games. The total for this game at Lambeau Field on Saturday is one of the smallest yet. This makes sense based on the fact that the Packers' QB situation is rather dire. We know Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to waste his time playing. But backup Jordan Love, his alleged “heir apparent” is dealing with a shoulder injury and he might be out as well. Also, the Jets won their first preseason game by a score of 12-7. This promises to be a very low-scoring game. Take the Under. Even with Love on the field last week, the Packers weren’t doing much. He directed just one scoring drive on six possessions vs. a bad Texans defense. The final score was 26-7. It’s pretty clear that GB HC Matt LaFleur doesn’t care much for the preseason. He didn’t even dress 30 players last week. As unimpressive as Love was against the Texans, the running game may have been even worse as it gained only 49 yards on 21 attempts. If Love does not play this week, that means third-stringer Kurt Benkert will get the start and play most of the way. Love did not practice all week. There wasn’t much offense to speak of from the Jets’ game last week either. It was 3-0 going into halftime and 10-0 late in the 4Q. The only score the defense allowed came after a turnover, a drive that started at their own 17-yard line. The Jets defense, which allowed just 163 total yards last week and 3.7 yards per play, must have been angry as they finished off the game with a safety. On offense, rookie QB Zach Wilson went 6 of 9 for 63 yards on two drives. But the Jets’ running game was really bad, gaining only 2.4 yards per carry. I just don’t see many points being scored here. 10* Under Jets/Packers |
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08-21-21 | Angels v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Angels/Indians (4:10 ET): Yesterday’s game went Over the total by half a run, but that was with the Indians basically doing all the scoring. They won 9-1, snapping the Halos’ three-game win streak. Now the Tribe seek to do something that they’ve only been able to do one time in August. That's win back to back games. This isn’t a particularly strong offensive club (25th in team batting average, 27th in OBP), so I have my doubts. But rather than fade them, I’m taking the Under here. Starting for the home team this afternoon is Triston McKenzie and he’s been red hot of late. Last time out, McKenzie very nearly threw a perfect game. He didn’t allow a hit until the 8th inning as he retired the first 23 batters he saw. There were zero walks and 11 strikeouts. Over his L3 starts, McKenzie has a 0.524 WHIP, which is just plain sick. He’s allowed just 10 hits and 1 walk in his last 21 IP. As a reminder, the Angels scored just one run yesterday and had four hits. You have to figure they’ll struggle against facing McKenzie. But Cleveland only averages 4.0 rpg when facing a left-handed starter. Today they are up against southpaw Reid Detmers. While Detmers struggled in his first two big league starts, giving up 11 runs in 9 ⅓ innings to the Dodgers and A’s, he came back with a solid outing last Sunday when he held Houston to one run and three hits over six innings. The Indians will be - by far - the weakest offensive club that Detmers has faced over his first four starts. The Under is 20-7-1 the L28 times LA has been an underdog. 10* Under Angels/Indians |
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08-20-21 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
8* Under Mariners/Astros (8:10 ET): By now, most are aware of my “feelings” on the Mariners. They have no business being in Wild Card contention. Not with a -42 YTD run differential. But they have won 8 of 10 and are coming off a three-game sweep of Texas. Five of their last eight wins have come at the Rangers’ expense. Key to Seattle’s success this season is their MLB-best 26-14 record in one-run games. They are also 10-4 in games decided in extra innings. Sure enough, they won 9-8 in 11 innings yesterday. Houston also won in extra innings on Thursday afternoon. Beating Kansas City 6-3 not only had them avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep, but kept them 2.5 games in front of Oakland for the division lead. The Astros have the top run differential in the American League right now (+164) and I’ve been saying all year that they will win the West. They also have MLB’s highest scoring offense at 5.3 runs per game. But their scoring average goes DOWN at home and I’m taking the Under in this one. Seattle has one of the worst offenses in MLB. They are dead last in team batting average (.222) as well as bottom three in both OBP (.299) and OPS (.681). So this should be a mismatch in favor of the Astros. But Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi should be able to keep this one low-scoring. Kikuchi has a 2.97 ERA on the road and 13 quality starts this season. Only twice since the beginning of May has he allowed more than 3 ER in a start. Houston’s Lance McCullers should make this a nice pitcher’s duel though as he is 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 previous starts against the Mariners. From April 25th through August 3rd, McCullers had a nice stretch where he went 8-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts. 8* Under Mariners/Astros |
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08-19-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 101 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Over Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): I took the Brew Crew on Tuesday. They won 2-0, ending the Cardinals’ six-game win streak. In my analysis, I noted how the entirety of the Cards’ win streak was at the expense of the Pirates and Royals, two last place teams, and this step up in class was likely to give them some trouble. Milwaukee is one of the best teams in baseball, with one of the best pitching staffs, and sure enough they were 6-4 winners last night. While that game only went Over because of extra innings (Brewers tied it in the top of the ninth), I think this one is likely to sneak Over as well! Now playing the Over when Brandon Woodruff starts for Milwaukee hasn’t been all that smart. The Under is 8-2 when Woodruff starts on the road. But you should note one of those Overs came in his last start, which was at Wrigley Field. There, the Brewers scored 17 runs in an absolute rout. Not saying that Woodruff is going to get that kind of support yet again. But the fact he had to leave that last start after three innings seems like a concern. He needed 74 pitches to retire just nine batters. The Brewers’ bullpen was taxed yesterday (seven relievers used), so if Woodruff can’t go deep into the game, they are in trouble. The Cardinals wasted an early 3-0 lead yesterday and didn’t score at all from the third through ninth inning. They have averaged 5.3 rpg over the last week though and will need to approach that average tonight due to Jon Lester starting for them. Lester has struggled in his first three starts for St. Louis (traded from Washington), posting a 6.75 ERA. He was better his last time out, but that was his second straight time facing the last place Royals. Lester has a 5.32 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for the season. He’s just not the pitcher he once was. 10* Over Brewers/Cardinals |
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08-19-21 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
8* Under Phillies/D’backs (3:40 ET): If you recall, I wasn’t buying the Phillies back when they were on an eight-game win streak and in first place in the National League East. So it’s not a big shock to see that they’ve come crashing back down, losing six of their last eight games. What is surprising is the last two losses have come against the D’backs, a horrible team that has the lowest win percentage in the entire Senior Circuit. Philly has just four runs and seven hits in the first two games and could now be swept by a team that has just four win streaks of three games or longer all season. If the Phillies are to avoid the sweep, it will likely be because of today’s starter Zack Wheeler. Though he has twice given up four runs over his L3 starts, Wheeler has generally been outstanding in 2021. He is #1 among all starters in innings pitched (162), strikeouts (187) and complete games (three). He’s struck out 10+ batters in six different starts this season. Arizona does not exactly have the most fearsome lineup and Wheeler is 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in seven career starts against them. But my fear with the Phillies this afternoon is that they are not likely to score many runs. Over the last week, they’ve averaged less than three per game. They face Madison Bumgarner, who has strung together a pretty strong six-start stretch since coming back from injury. MadBum has a 2.09 ERA over the six starts, which have seen him allow 2 ER or less every time out. The Under is 9-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 11 games. I look for a pitcher’s duel this afternoon in the desert. 8* Under Phillies/D’backs |
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08-18-21 | Braves v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 11-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Braves/Marlins (7:10 ET): I’m 2 for 2 so far in this series, having won with the Braves on Monday and then Under on Tuesday. That combo is likely to hit again tonight, but considering the “price tag” on Atlanta (now -200 on ML), the Under certainly seems to carry more value. In yesterday’s analysis, I mentioned that - on average - LoanDepot Park in Miami has seen the second fewest number of runs per game scored of any stadium in MLB (Citi Field is #1). That average is now down to 7.7 rpg after yday’s 2-0 final. The only runs scored last night came in the eighth and ninth innings. Take the Under again. Wednesday starter Charlie Morton is having a fine season for Atlanta. The veteran right-hander has won 9 of his past 11 decisions and is working on a streak of seven straight starts with 3 ER or less allowed. He’s gone at least six innings six times in that seven start stretch with a 2.57 ERA and 1.048 WHIP. The Under is 3-0 his L3 starts. The last time Morton pitched here in Miami, he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed only two hits (5-0 Atlanta win). The Marlins have really struggled at the plate in this series, scoring only two runs on eight hits. Last night marked the 11th time they’ve been shutout this season. The Braves are really surging right now and I do expect them to win the NL East. But, something else I mentioned in yday’s analysis is how their scoring average dips on the road, from 5.2 runs per game at home to 4.6 on the road. For the first time, they’ll face Jesus Luzardo tonight. Luzardo came over from the A’s in the Starling Marte trade and he has struggled with his command in three starts for Miami. But one start in Colorado really skews his numbers. Marlins’ opponents are averaging just 3.7 rpg here in Miami and hitting .218. That’s for the year. Luzardo will pitch better than expected. 10* Under Braves/Marlins |
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08-18-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
8* Over Red Sox/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees swept Tuesday’s doubleheader and are now tied with the Red Sox for second place in the AL East. The two wins yesterday also moved them into a three-way tie with Oakland in the Wild Card race. Only two of the three teams can make it and you still shouldn’t discount Toronto (four games back) either. The two games yesterday (both seven innings, remember) were relatively low-scoring affairs: 5-3 and 2-0. But it should be noted that in the first game, Boston had the bases loaded in the top of the ninth (with no outs) and did not score. I like the Over today. The Yankees are definitely surging right now as they’ve won five straight and 12 of the last 15 games. Their 45-23 record in games decided by two runs or less is the best in all of MLB. The offense is scoring more now and I like its chances against Nick Pivetta, who has somehow not started any of the 15 times Boston has faced the Yankees this year. Pivetta is coming off B2B strong outings, but this Yankees lineup is getting healthier and could get Anthony Rizzo back from the COVID-19 list tonight. Twice in the last seven games, the Red Sox have put up 16 and 20 runs. So their lineup must be respected. It’s still top six in MLB in runs scored. Yesterday they went 2 for 14 with RISP and the middle of the order (Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez) went 3 for 18 overall. You have to expect better in this one. Especially when Yankees’ starter Andrew Heaney has posted a 9.00 ERA over his L3 starts. Heaney has had a bit of a rough season and that’s led to the Over being 15-5-1 in his 21 starts. He allowed seven runs his last time out. 8* Over Red Sox/Yankees |
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08-17-21 | Braves v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Braves/Marlins (7:10 ET): I had Atlanta yesterday and they rolled to a 12-2 win in the series opener. If you read that analysis, then you know I’m pretty high on the Braves right now and expect them to win the NL East for a fourth straight year. That confidence is based on the fact they currently sport a +82 run differential. No other team in the division even has a positive run differential. RD is typically an excellent barometer for projecting future performance. Throw in the fact that the Braves have won four straight and 11 of their last 13 and they SHOULD be feeling pretty good about themselves right now. But I don’t see them scoring 12 runs again tonight, or even close to that number. I had zero issue fading Marlins’ lefty Braxton Garrett last night as the Braves came in on a 6-0 run vs. southpaws. But tonight they must deal with Sandy Alcantara, a righty. Don’t be fooled by Alcantara’s 3-8 TSR at home. He’s pitched really well here (2.58 ERA, 0.947 WHIP). The Under is 8-2-1 in all Alcantara home starts. Though I was supremely confident in them last night, it should be pointed out that the Braves’ scoring average dips from 5.2 runs per game at home to 4.6 on the road. Alcantara is 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA in six career starts vs. Atlanta. Marlins’ home games are typically low-scoring. You’re looking at an average of 7.8 total runs per game scored. That’s the second lowest average of any park in all of baseball (Citi Field is the lowest). Atlanta only gives up 3.9 rpg away from home, so we really look to be in good shape with this play. Starting for the Braves on Tuesday will be Huascar Ynoa, who has not pitched since May due to breaking his hand punching the dugout bench. Before breaking his hand, Ynoa had eight starts under his belt and allowed two runs or less in six of them. 8* Under Braves/Marlins |
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08-16-21 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Indians/Twins (8:10 ET): Cleveland got an outstanding pitching performance from starter Triston McKenzie on Sunday. McKenzie flirted with a perfect game, retiring the first 23 batters he saw. He left after allowing just one hit in eight innings. The Indians won 11-0. The team can probably expect another strong effort on the mound today as Cal Quantrill gets the starting nod. Over his L6 starts, Quantrill has allowed a total of five runs in 36 IP. All six games have stayed Under the total. I think this one will too as Quantrill will be opposed by another pitcher who has put up impressive numbers of late. That would be Griffin Jax of Minnesota. Jax's first career big league victory came at the Indians’ expense back on June 25th. It was in a relief effort. As a starter, Jax has done quite well. All five starts have stayed Under with him posting a 2.76 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in the last three. Though the number of runs he allowed in his last start (three) were equal to the number he allowed in the previous three combined, it was arguably Jax’s finest effort to date as he struck out a season-high 10 batters in a 4-3 win over the White Sox. None of Jax’s starts have seen more than nine total runs scored in the game. Same for Quantrill and those L6 starts. Minnesota’s last three series were all against division leaders. Surprisingly, they won all three series. Two of the last three wins have come in shutout fashion. But they’ve also been held to one run or less in their last three losses. Cleveland, off a shutout win, isn’t much of a threat to score as they average just 4.1 rpg on the road while hitting a collective .227. They are bottom five in both team batting average and on base percentage for the year. Look for a good old fashioned pitchers duel on Monday. 10* Under Indians/Twins |
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08-15-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
8* Under Rockies/Giants (4:05 ET): One component of this Under should be rather easy. Colorado averages a pitiful 3.1 runs per game on the road. That’s the fewest in all of MLB. San Francisco is giving up only 3.7 rpg for the year. That ranks 2nd overall. The Giants have Alex Wood going Sunday. The team is 4-0 in his last four starts even though Wood has been far from his best in the last three. He’s faced Colorado twice this year and given up only four runs in 11 IP. I’m confident the Rockies aren’t going to score many runs on Sunday. But the Giants only scored once in a (4-1) loss Saturday. That was after winning the first two games of the series 7-0 and 5-4. Yesterday marked just the 14th road win of the season for the Rockies. They still only had five hits though. The loss snapped the Giants’ six-game win streak. I think they should continue to “cool off” at the plate though as they go against Jon Gray here.Back in May, Gray allowed only two runs in six innings when he faced the Giants at home. The Giants are big favorites Sunday though and that should be respected. Assuming they do win today, that means we won’t have to worry about playing the bottom of the ninth, which is nice when you have the Under. The Under is 8-2 in Colorado’s L10 games after allowing two runs or less the last game. The Giants are 7-0 Under the L7 Sundays. I don’t see many runs being scored in this one. 8* Under Rockies/Giants |
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08-15-21 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under A’s/Rangers (2:35 ET): After having their seven-game win streak snapped Friday, the A’s wasted little time getting back on track with a 8-3 win over the Rangers Saturday. Considering Texas is the last place team in the division, and one of the worst teams in baseball, it’s surprising that Oakland is only 9-6 in the head to head series this year. Looking at today’s game, the A’s have never been priced higher on the money line for any road game than they are here. I’m not too keen on playing them at this price, but I do believe they’ll keep the Rangers’ weak offense in check. Take the Under. Texas is the lowest scoring team in the American League. They are 29th in MLB in team batting average, 30th (i.e. last) in on base percentage, 29th in slugging and 30th in OPS. So that’s bottom two in the four major categories. So Sean Manaea, despite off a couple shaky starts, should have an easy job this afternoon. In 14 career starts vs. the Rangers, Manaea is 7-3 with a 3.65 ERA. He had ended July with B2B quality starts, allowing one run on four hits total. He also had 22 strikeouts in the two starts (13 IP). So in terms of the Under, it’s probably up to the Rangers to keep Oakland’s bats in check. Starter Kolby Allard has yet to win at home this season (0-6). But his WHIP (1.182) is not all that bad and he’s coming off B2B quality starts. Against both the Angels and Mariners, Allard allowed just two runs in six innings. Given how Oakland has been swinging the bats recently, I know it seems “risky” to take the Under. But they only give up 3.6 runs per game on the road. Texas won’t score much and I don’t think Oakland will either. 8* Under A’s/Rangers |
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08-14-21 | Dolphins v. Bears OVER 36 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -134 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
8* Over Dolphins/Bears (1:00 ET): The big story in this one is that Bears rookie QB Justin Fields is expected to play longer than usual. "For Justin, for sure [he'll play] past the halftime," Bears HC Matt Nagy said before the Bears and Dolphins held a joint practice. "The mindset going into this is that he's going to get a lot of reps. Does that take him into the fourth quarter? Maybe. ... The more reps we can get him right now, the better. It's only going to help him." From all accounts, Fields has looked better than Andy Dalton in camp. It remains to be seen if he will be the starter for Week 1 of the regular season. Miami is coming off a much better than anticipated season. They went 10-6 SU, but did NOT make the playoffs. Expectations for this season is that they WILL make the playoffs. I’m not so sure. The defense forced the most turnovers in the league last year, a feat that almost certainly will not be replicated in 2021. All those turnovers the Dolphins forced somewhat masked the fact the defense was 24th in yards allowed. Facing a highly motivated Fields, I expect Miami to give up plenty of yards .. and points in this one. Fields playing into the second half is a big deal. After him, Dalton isn’t just going to roll over. So, there’s a chance that for this entire first preseason game, the Bears will have competent QB play. For Miami, Tua Tagovailoa has reportedly looked GREAT in camp. The talk is that he’s mastered the playbook and is ready to take the proverbial second year leap. Tua is expected to play Saturday afternoon. How long is anyone’s guess. But I think Miami will put some points on the board as well. 8* Over Dolphins/Bears |
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08-13-21 | Cubs v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 10-14 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
8* Under Cubs/Marlins (7:35 ET): Needless to say, it doesn’t look like we’re going to have a repeat of 2003 when these two teams were involved in one of the most infamous NLCS of all-time. Both the Cubs and Marlins have been relegated to “playing out the string” at this point. The Cubs have lost eight in a row and gave up 27 runs in the two games, both of which were against NL Central-leading Milwaukee. So they’ll be happy to make the trip to Miami and play someone else. The Marlins were off yesterday after shutting out San Diego 7-0 on Wednesday. Despite what the recent trends say, I’m taking the Under in this series opener. Prior to the shutout win 48 hours ago, Miami had been on an 8-1 Over run. They’d been giving up their fair share of runs, but it’s important to note the majority of those games were on the road and three of them were at Coors Field. Now they return home. LoanDepot Park has quietly become a safe haven for Marlins’ pitchers as they are giving up just 3.5 runs per game and a .211 batting average here. Unfortunately, the offense doesn’t always do its job as the Marlins only average 3.9 rpg at home. The total average number of runs scored per game in this park this season is second lowest in MLB (Citi Field is #1). Cubs pitching gave up all those runs the L2 days, but you may not have noticed that yesterday was the most runs they scored in a game in quite some time. Unfortunately, that number was only four. On the road, the Cubs average just 3.7 rpg this season. Before yesterday, they’d scored just eight times in five games and were shutout twice. The two starters for tonight’s game - Adbert Alzolay for the Cubs and Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins - don’t have the best numbers. But the former has pitched better than his record and is off a quality start. The latter is backed by a strong bullpen. 8* Under Cubs/Marlins |
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08-13-21 | Arsenal v. Brentford OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Arsenal/Brentford (3:00 ET): Brentford becomes the 50th club to compete in the English Premier League, having earned a promotion by finishing third in the Championship last season and winning a playoff over Swansea. The Bees have been in the English top flight before, but that predated the formation of the EPL and was all the way back in 1947-48! So they’ll be happy to be here. The campaign begins against Arsenal, a side that won’t be playing European football this season - for the first time in a quarter century. The Gunners finished eighth in the table last season, which is pretty much where they deserved to finish. They did win their final five fixtures of last season, though that was not enough to overcome Tottenham Hotspur for Europa League qualifying. Undoubtedly, the highlight so far under manager Mikel Arteta was winning the FA Cup. However, the pressure is on after a terrible preseason which saw the club lose to Tottenham, Chelsea and Hibernian. I think the interesting thing here is that Brentford was the highest scoring side in the Championship last year. They tallied 79 goals, which was well out in front of most of the second tier league. They are led by Ivan Toney, who scored 33 of those 79 goals a year ago. I absolutely anticipate the Bees breaking through with a goal or two in the first match of the season. Arsenal was not a terribly high-scoring club LY, but should be able to find the back of the net a couple times against the recently promoted side. 10* Over Arsenal/Brentford |
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08-12-21 | Washington Football Team v. Patriots OVER 36 | Top | 13-22 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 14 m | Show |
10* Over Washington/New England (7:30 ET): The 2020 NFL season was like none other before it. There were obvious reasons why that was the case. One that did not make many headlines, but was truly unique, is the fact Washington made the playoffs and New England did not. The last time that happened was 1999. Bill Belichick was not yet the head coach of the Patriots at that time. He’d take over the following season and has since led the franchise to one of the most sustained runs of greatness in the history of sports. But last year marked the first time Tom Brady was not on Belichick’s roster. We all know how that went. While the Pats may have missed the playoffs for just the fourth time in 21 years, they actually finished with the same 7-9 regular season record as the Football Team. Washington was simply fortunate enough to play in the horrible NFC East. I expect regression from them in 2021 as there’s virtually no shot their defense can repeat last season’s effort. Conversely, New England will probably improve its record. But how much remains to be seen. New England’s improvement hinges on the QB position. They drafted Mac Jones (out of Alabama) in the first round of the Draft. They also still have Cam Newton. This will be one of the real QB battles to watch in the preseason as both look to be the Week 1 starter. Because both QBs are looking to impress, I expect the Patriots to put up a decent amount of points on Thursday. The same holds true for Washington, who has its own QB battle with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke. Remember that Heinicke had a monster playoff game against Tampa Bay with 352 total yards of offense. Take the Over. 10* Over Washington/New England |
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08-11-21 | A's v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Over A’s/Indians (7:10 ET): The A’s are in the driver’s seat right now in the AL Wildcard race. They stayed hot by coming from behind to win here in Cleveland last night, 4-3 in 10 innings. It was their fifth straight win, which not only put them on top of the WC race but they are also just two games back of the Astros in the West! Meanwhile, Cleveland is fading fast. They’re now below .500 on the season and have a run differential that’s not indicative of a true contender. While most signs do point to another Oakland victory tonight, I am more confident in the fact that there will be more runs scored than what we saw yesterday. Take the Over. Last night marked Oakland’s sixth straight win here at Progressive Field and the team’s bullpen deserves virtually all of the credit. They did not get a good effort from Tuesday’s starter Sean Manaea, who allowed three runs in 1 ⅔ innings. But the relievers came in and did their job, not only keeping Cleveland scoreless for the rest of the game but also allowing only one hit! But that kind of bullpen usage puts a lot of pressure on tonight’s starter Frankie Montas, who still has a 4.10 ERA despite some recent strong efforts on the mound (five straight quality starts). I think Cleveland will be able to string together more offense tonight compared to yesterday. Cal Quantrill, like Montas, is coming off a strong five start stretch. In fact, the L5 starts by the Indians’ right-hander have stayed Under. But I see that string of quality efforts coming to an end here. The last Montas-Quantrill matchup (took place on 7/17) ended up being a 3-2 Oakland win. But the hitters are getting a second chance and in the case of BOTH lineups, should do better. Outside of a series with the Angels, the A’s have not gone Under in B2B games in awhile. The Over is 38-28-4 in Indians’ night games this year. 10* Over A’s/Indians |
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08-11-21 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
8* Under White Sox/Twins (1:10 ET): Chicago may be rolling towards the AL Central pennant, but mediocre play on the road may ultimately doom them in the postseason. This is basically a .500 team away from home (29-27) and they lost to the last place Twins last night by a score of 4-3. That all being said, I couldn’t possibly endorse the Twins in this spot either. They are just 5-13 vs. the White Sox in 2021 and were beaten 11-1 back in the series opener. What I do think is - similar to yesterday - this is set to be a pretty low-scoring day game. Take the Under. White Sox pitching has allowed three runs or less in six of the last nine games. With Lance Lynn on the bump Wednesday afternoon, they’ve got a great chance to extend that streak. Lynn is coming off an outstanding July where he went 3-0 and posted a 2.10 ERA in five starts. He’s gone six-plus innings while allowing exactly one run in five of his last six outings. This will be the fifth time Lynn starts against Minnesota this season. So far he’s unbeaten (2-0) and has allowed just five runs (one unearned) on 16 hits in 24 IP. Lynn should come out a lot stronger than Dallas Kuechel did yesterday. Keuchel issued three walks in a two-run 1st inning for the Twins. The White Sox also didn’t help themselves at the plate last night as they struck out 10 times. One more word on that aforementioned road record of theirs - they’ve actually outscored opponents by a full run per game on the road this season, so maybe that record should be better. But they can’t run from the fact their scoring average dips to 4.4 runs per game in the daytime. Rookie Bailey Ober gets the starting nod here for Minnesota. He has not been all that successful in four previous starts against the White Sox this season, but did keep them scoreless for five innings (allowed just two hits!) the last time he faced them at home. 8* Under White Sox/Twins |
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08-10-21 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): We’ve got two of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball right here. Both Texas and Seattle are bottom five in: team batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage and OPS. They are the bottom two in both batting average and slugging. In addition, the Rangers are second worst in slugging and worst in OPS. So the Under makes a lot of sense here. Texas has scored the fewest runs among American League teams. They’ve also dropped six in a row coming into tonight while not scoring more than three runs in any of those losses. If you're a regular client of mine, then you know my feelings on Seattle. They are currently 59-54 despite a run differential of -51. With that kind of run differential, this team should be nowhere near Wild Card contention. They have a “win expectancy” of 51. The eight-game gap between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB. While the Mariners have generally thrived in one-run games this season, five of their last six losses have come by that margin. Their last six games, including a 2-0 win over the Yankees on Sunday, have all gone Under. Logan Gilbert doesn’t have the best ERA, but he does have 1.099 WHIP and an 11-3 TSR for the M’s. I expect him to pitch well tonight in what will be his third start of the season vs. Texas. The Rangers have dropped 14 consecutive road games and are hitting just .173 over the last week. Kolby Allard, today’s starter, is having a miserable season for them (1-11 TSR). But he was sharp in his last outing, allowing just two runs in six innings. His WHIP is only 1.20. 10* Under Rangers/Mariners |
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08-09-21 | Yankees v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Yankees/Royals (8:10 ET): The Yankees missed out on a chance to sweep the Mariners, losing Sunday by a score of 2-0. But I think they are likely to “rediscover” their offense tonight here in Kansas City as they oppose Carlos Hernandez and the Royals. While they were blanked yesterday, NY had previously averaged 7.2 runs per game during its five-game win streak. Take the Over here. Hernandez is coming off two straight effective outings against the White Sox. He won both by allowing just one run in 11 innings. However, it’s still a small sample size with the rookie, who has made only four starts this year. He has faced the Yankees once previous to this, but as a reliever on June 23rd. That appearance saw him blow a lead by giving up two runs in two innings. The Royals’ bullpen has gotten no better since Hernandez was moved to the starting rotation. Yesterday they gave up four runs in the late innings, resulting in the offense having to score in the top of the ninth in order to get the 6-5 win and avoid what would have been a three-game sweep. Jameson Taillon has pitched well of late for the Yankees (3-0 TSR, 1.42 ERA L3 starts), but there’s reason for concern with him in this spot as it’s a road game. Taillon has a 5.27 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in nine road starts. As a result, the Over is 7-2. He did pitch well against the Royals back on 6/24, but that was at home and this will be their second time seeing him. The Royals scoring average at home jumps from 3.5 rpg on the road to 4.7 at home. The pitcher had to come up to bat in the last series (at St. Louis), which is no longer the case here. 10* Over Yankees/Royals |
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08-08-21 | Angels v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
10* Under Angels/Dodgers (4:05 ET): I’m just going to go ahead and take from my writeup (which told you to play the Under) on Friday’s game between these teams. There are many factors that I consider when betting a MLB total. Virtually all of them line up here towards taking the Under. Notably, we’ve got an American League team not able to play with the DH. The loss of the designated hitter becomes even more pronounced for the Angels when you consider visiting teams are averaging just 3.5 runs per game at Dodger Stadium. Not only did Friday’s game stay Under (4-3 final) so did Saturday’s (5-3). Over their last 10 games, the Angels have topped five runs only once. That was against a terrible Rangers team. They have been held to three runs or less in seven of those ten games. They figure to struggle to score runs again today as they have to face Walker Buehler. Buehler was already having another great season for the Dodgers with a 2.16 ERA and 0.918 WHIP. But lately, he’s been “lights out.” He’s allowed just four runs in his last five starts and has a 0.89 ERA in the last three. Over the last two months, Buehler has allowed a grand total of two home runs. With the Angels likely to struggle to score runs in this game, all we now need to “worry about” is the Dodgers’ offense. Thankfully, it is quite likely that they’ll only come up to bat eight times in this game. (This is assuming they have the lead heading into the ninth). The Dodgers have been shutout twice in the last eight games though. They lost Friday’s game and it still went Under. So regardless of who wins here, anything but another low-scoring game would surprise me. Reid Detmers is a lefty and the Dodgers are 19-13 Under this season when facing a southpaw. 10* Under Angels/Dodgers |
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08-08-21 | Twins v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Twins/Astros (2:10 ET): Houston finally won a game in this series, snapping what was a three-game losing skid with a 4-0 shutout yesterday. Despite the recent skid and the fact their lead in the AL West is down to three games over Oakland, I don’t think there’s any “problem” in Houston right now. The club still sports the best run differential (+151) in the American League and will have no problem making the postseason. Minnesota came into 2021 thinking playoffs, but they have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season as they are in last place in the Central and down 27.6 units at the betting window. The ML is too rich for my blood here and I don’t want to risk the chance the Astros win this game by only one run (so no run line). But I am confident this one stays Under the total. Houston may be the highest scoring team in MLB, but they actually average more runs per game on the road. They also have not scored more than five runs in any game in August. Kenta Maeda starts today for the Twins and should bounce back from a rough outing at Cincinnati last week. Prior to giving up five runs in that game, Maeda had allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts and 11 of his last 12. Lance McCullers Jr threw 6 ⅔ scoreless innings for Houston in a 3-0 win over the Dodgers last weekend. He looks to replicate that performance as he toes the rubber again Sunday. McCullers comes in with a 9-2 WL record and 3.02 ERA. Prior to that last outing, he’d given up four runs in B2B starts. But before that he’d allowed 3 ER or less in 14 of his 15 starts. Including last year’s brief playoff series, these teams have combined to go 6-1-1 Under against each other the L2 seasons. The Twins are 8-0-1 Under their last nine games vs. AL West teams. 10* Under Twins/Astros |
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08-07-21 | Bobby Green v. Rafael Fiziev OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 58 h 33 m | Show |
8* Over Green/Fisiev (9:25 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs). It will be the final fight on the prelims, which you can watch for free on ESPN 2. Bobby Green, a veteran, comes in with a 27-11-1 career mark. That includes a 8-6-1 record in the UFC. He has his work cut out for him Saturday night against the emerging Rafael Fisiev (9-1 overall, 3-1 UFC), who has put together an impressive three-fight win streak. But despite the lopsided odds, I wouldn’t completely count Green out. I think there’s a good chance this one makes it to the judges, so I’m going Over 2.5 rounds. Fiziev arrived in the UFC with an unbeaten record and plenty of hype. So it was a shocker when he was knocked out in less than 90 seconds by Magomed Mustafaev back in April of 2019, his first fight with the promotion. But since that time, Fiziev has put it together with three straight wins. Two were by decision. The most recent was a first round knockout of Renato Carniero in December of last year. The long layoff between fights is worth noting and I think we could see a slower than expected start from “Ataman.” Staying active has typically never been an issue for Green, who fought four times in 2020. He started the year 3-0, but then dropped a decision to Thiago Moises in October. All four fights went to the scorecards. It’s interesting that after being so active last year, Green has an even longer layoff than Fisiev. It could be that this is the only fight of 2021 for both fighters. Yes, they’ll be looking to make it count, but I also think they’ll be more cautious at the start. I think that Green’s wrestling ability will be able to keep the fight going. Look for this one to make it past the halfway point of round three - at least. 8* Over Green/Fisiev |
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08-07-21 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
8* Under Mets/Phillies (4:05 ET): Philadelphia won its sixth straight game on Friday and is now in first place in the NL East. After scoring a total of 43 runs in the previous five games, they needed only four to take last night’s series opener from the Mets. The Phillies were fortunate, not only to overcome three errors, but also that the Mets 1 for 8 with RISP. In the fourth inning, the Mets loaded the bases with nobody out but were unable to score any runs. I don’t think we’re going to see much scoring in this day game, so Under is the call here. This is the first time in three months that the Mets do NOT enter the day in first place. Injuries have really taken a toll on this team with the most notable absence being Jacob deGrom. But they still are one of only a handful of teams to be allowing less than 4.0 runs per game on the year. Saturday’s starter Tylor Megill has pitched quite well in his eight starts, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. He did struggle in his last outing, giving up a season-high five runs (four earned), but I like him to bounce back here. The Phillies have never faced him and their offensive production is due to tail off. Though they are hot right now, I’m still a little lukewarm on the Phillies. Look for the Braves to win this division. But that’s a discussion for a different day. When the Phils face the Mets, typically you see very few runs scored. In 9 of the last 11 meetings, there have been seven or fewer total runs scored. That makes sense for a divisional matchup. So last night wasn’t out of the ordinary. Ranger Suarez makes his second start of the year for Philly here. The first saw him toss three scoreless innings and he didn’t give up a hit. Sounds good enough to me as the Mets average just 3.8 rpg. 8* Under Mets/Phillies |
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08-06-21 | Angels v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* Under Angels/Dodgers (10:10 ET): There are many factors that I consider when betting a MLB total. Virtually all of them line up here towards taking the Under. Notably, we’ve got an American League team not able to play with the DH. The loss of the designated hitter becomes even more pronounced for the Angels when you consider visiting teams are averaging just 3.5 runs per game at Dodger Stadium. An all-lefty starting pitching matchup is another reason to not expect many runs tonight. Most hitters tend to struggle vs. lefties, especially when they are unfamiliar with them as is the case here. We’ve got two good southpaws on the mound as well. Patrick Sandoval goes for the Angels. He’s allowed three runs or less in 11 of 12 starts this season. He was marvelous on July 24th at Minnesota when he came within one out of a complete game. Sandoval struck out 13 batters and allowed just one run (and one hit!) that day. He didn’t go nearly as long his last time out, but again allowed just one run vs. Oakland on July 30th. Unfortunately for him, the Angels’ offense forgot to score in what ended up being a 2-0 loss. The Angels figure to struggle again at the plate tonight. They will face David Price. Now Price shockingly has an 0-5 TSR in his L5 starts. But the Under is still 6-1 when he pitches this year. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER. Run support has been an issue though with the team scoring just 22 runs in Price’s seven starts. The last one saw them get blanked 5-0 by the Giants, one of two times in the last six games that they’ve been shut out. The Angels just won in shutout fashion yesterday, by the way. I do expect this to be a Dodgers win, which would be helpful to the Under as it would likely mean they don’t come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. 8* Under Angels/Dodgers |
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08-06-21 | Marlins v. Rockies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-14 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10* Under Marlins/Rockies (8:40 ET): The two franchises that came into existence in 1993 square off this weekend at Coors Field. It’s the Marlins first visit here since 2019. Taking the Under at Coors may seem counterintuitive (thin air!) but the Under percentage here is actually the 4th highest in all of MLB (57.4%). Oddsmakers are keenly aware of the park’s reputation and always set the O/U line high. Miami’s offense shouldn’t scare anyone and I think we’ve got a pretty good starting pitching matchup tonight. The Rockies' last two games, one win and one loss, both stayed Under and those were here at home. German Marquez is someone who is clearly not bothered by the reputation of Coors Field. He’s 6-2 in home starts (10-3 TSR) with a 3.29 ERA and 1.148 WHIP this year. He has a 1.53 ERA in his L7 home starts! Quite frankly, it hasn’t mattered where the All-Star has pitched in 2021, he’s doing a tremendous job leading this staff. Over his L13 starts, Marquez has posted a 2.43 ERA. Over his L8 starts, he’s posted a 1.99 ERA. Last time out, he held the Padres to two runs and four hits. He should have little difficulty shutting down a Marlins lineup that has hit just .215 in its L7 games while scoring an average of 3.1 rpg. Despite a scuffling lineup, Miami did just take three of four from the Mets. Now they hope Sandy Alcantara can limit the Rockies’ offense. I think he’s the perfect man for the job considering he just tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in his last start. That came against the Yankees. It was the 7th time this season that Alcantara has gone 7+ innings and given up two or fewer runs. Problem is that the Marlins are just 2-5 in those games. That’s indicative of lousy run support, which is likely to be the case again tonight. Look for the two starting pitchers to take charge Friday night in what promises to be a low scoring game. 10* Under Marlins/Rockies |
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08-06-21 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
9* Over Rays/Orioles (7:05 ET): With these teams occupying opposite ends of the AL East spectrum, it’s certainly no surprise to see first place Tampa Bay is 8-1 in the season series against last place Baltimore. The Rays did have some trouble with Seattle in their last series, losing the first two games before a 4-3 win on Wednesday. But they still come into today holding a 1.5 game lead over Boston. Meanwhile, the Orioles surrendered 23 runs in their last two games and have fallen to 31 games below .500. They’ve given up the second most runs in all of MLB this year and thus I’m on the Over in this series opener. Tampa Bay has certainly had no problems scoring on Baltimore pitching this season. Only once in nine games have they failed to score five runs. They’ve averaged 7.0 runs across the nine games. Two of those nine games have come against today’s Orioles’ starter, John Means. Means made his return to the rotation (after a near two month absence) against the Rays on July 20th and gave up five runs in five innings. Earlier in the year, he allowed four runs in a 9-7 loss to the Rays. Both games went Over. Means looked a lot better at Detroit last week, picking up his 1st win since May 5th. But he did allow a HR, his 7th straight start doing so. In five of those seven starts he’s allowed multiple HRs. Tampa Bay is very stingy at home where they allow just 3.3 rpg. But on the road, that number balloons to 4.7 rpg allowed. Luckily for them, their own scoring average jumps to 5.4 rpg away from Tropicana Field. No surprise then that the Over is 31-18-3 in all Rays’ road games. Ryan Yarbrough has a 5.60 ERA in three previous starts vs. Baltimore this year and a 6.11 ERA in his L3 starts overall. One of those was against Baltimore as he allowed six runs in 5 ⅔ IP. He was no better last time out as Boston scored five times off him in 5 IP. 9* Over Rays/Orioles |
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08-05-21 | Cowboys v. Steelers UNDER 33 | Top | 3-16 | Win | 100 | 56 h 18 m | Show |
10* Under Cowboys/Steelers (8:00 ET): Scoring may have reached an all-time high last season, but don’t look for much of that in the Hall of Fame Game between the Cowboys and Steelers. Last year’s HOF Game, along with the rest of the preseason, was nixed due to the pandemic. In case you’d forgotten, the NFL Preseason is a “whole different ball game” with stars sitting and backups taking the majority of the snaps. Nowhere is this more apparent than the “annual” game in Canton. Six of the last eight HOF Games have seen 33 or less total points scored. I think that trend will continue in 2021. Take the Under. Dak Prescott has been ruled out for Dallas, which means that Garrett Gilbert, Cooper Rush and Ben DiNucci will split the snaps under center. The Cowboys were terrible offensively without Prescott last season. Gilbert figures to get the start. The Steelers, who figure to have one of the top defenses in the league again this year, saw Gilbert in 2020. They held him to 243 yards and one touchdown in a 24-19 win. With far less talent set to be on the field Thursday, this one will be even lower scoring. Mike McCarthy is not a coach I have much affinity for to begin with and I don’t see him opening up the playbook here. Like Prescott, Ben Roethlisberger won’t play here for the Steelers. Not like Big Ben is much of a difference maker anymore anyway. Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins and Joshua Dobbs are the three QBs we figure to see for the Black and Gold and I doubt any of them will do very much. It’s the first game, so expect vanilla game plans, little risk and not much scoring. Both coaching staffs just want to leave Canton healthy. Winning isn’t even that important here. 10* Under Cowboys/Steelers |
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08-05-21 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10* Under Giants/D’backs (3:40 ET): So the Giants won yesterday, 7-1, thus improving to 11-2 vs. Arizona this season. One of those two losses occurred on Tuesday, by a score of 3-1, so it’s been B2B Unders in this series. San Francisco is tied with Milwaukee and the Dodgers for the fewest number of runs allowed this season, so it’s not really a surprise to see the D’backs struggling to score runs here. Last night’s game was a little misleading (more on that in a moment) in terms of how many runs were scored, so I’ll be on the Under this afternoon. I don’t think the Giants will match yday’s offensive production. So last night’s game was 3-1 in the top of the 7th and it appeared as if that half inning was over when LaMonte Wade Jr struck out. However, Wade was able to reach first on a wild pitch. That wild pitch proved costly as it opened the door for the Giants to score four times before the inning was over. None of that scoring “should” have taken place and had it not, these teams would be coming off B2B low-scoring games. Last night’s game still went Under mind you. It’s been a bleak season for Arizona, but Thursday starter Merrill Kelly has been one of the few bright spots. Kelly had gone 5-0 during a seven-start stretch from June 21st to July 24th. That may not sound like much, but consider the D’backs have just 34 wins this season. Ten of those have come with Kelly on the bump. Last time he faced SF, Kelly held them to three runs over seven innings. Alex Wood gets the nod here for the Giants and he has won four straight decisions coming into today. He’s also 2-0 vs. Arizona this year, having allowed just four runs in 11 innings. He has 15 strikeouts in the two starts. The D’backs hit just .226 vs. lefties. 10* Under Giants/D’backs |
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08-04-21 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 101 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
8* Under Pirates/Brewers (2:10 ET): The Pirates stunned the Brewers last night, winning 8-5 in 10 innings. All eight of the Pirates’ runs came in two innings. They had a five-run seventh and then put three on the board in the top of the 10th to win the game. Not only were the Bucs initially down 4-0, but they didn’t have a single hit until the seventh inning! In retrospect, the decision by Brewers’ manager Craig Counsell to pull starter Adrian Houser (who still had the no-hitter intact) looks foolish. But what really opened the door for the Pirates’ rally was an error on a ground-ball (that could have been turned into an inning-ending double play). Four more runs were scored in that inning after the error. Based on the fact they didn’t have a hit until the seventh and couldn’t get a runner past second base until the fifth, I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to score eight runs again this afternoon. Keep in mind this is the lowest-scoring team in all of MLB at 3.7 runs per game. On the road, that number drops to 3.4. They are facing Freddy Peralta today, which doesn’t help either. Peralta has a 2.21 ERA (2nd best in NL) and 0.84 WHIP in 19 starts for the Brew Crew and he hasn’t allowed a single run in either of his last two starts. In fact, he gave up only three hits! He’s allowed 3 ER or less in 13 straight starts. In three starts this year vs. Pittsburgh, Peralta has a 2.65 ERA. Yesterday was only the ninth time all season that Milwaukee lost when scoring four or more runs. It will be interesting to see what they can do today against Steven Brault, who has not started a big league game this season. Brault began the year on the 60-day DL. He posted a 1.42 ERA in four rehab starts. At the end of last season, Brault was pitching pretty well and his L9 starts all went Under. I think he can keep this Brewers’ lineup, which is tied for 28th in MLB in batting average, in check. 8* Under Pirates/Brewers |
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07-31-21 | Zarrukh Adashev v. Ryan Benoit OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
8* Over Adashev/Benoit (6:30 ET): This is a three-round fight between flyweights (125 lbs) Zarrukh Adashev (3-3 overall, 0-2 UFC) and Ryan Benoit (10-7, 3-5). As you can tell from those respective records, nether has done much and there isn’t a lot of potential to be seen. But they are fighting on the main card of a show on ESPN. Because of the fact that both fighters are absolutely desperate for a victory Saturday night, I’m expecting a relatively cautious pace. Definitely look for the fight to go Over 2.5 rounds as a decision is likely to be rendered. Adashev was signed by the UFC last year despite having only four professional bouts under his belt. His UFC career is not off to a rousing start as he was knocked out (in 32 seconds) by Tyson Nam last June and then dropped a unanimous decision to Su Mudaerji in January. Adashev has a solid background in kickboxing, but there’s really not much else to tout here. The fact he did make it the distance last time does give me more confidence in the Over, however. Benoit also has some kickboxing on his resume, but he tends to be a methodical fighter and is tough to beat. I know that sounds odd in light of a losing UFC record, but each of the last three defeats for Benoit came via decision. In fact, four of his last five fights have gone to the cards. All five went to round three. It’s been over a year since Benoit dropped a decision to Tim Elliott in his last fight, so I hardly see him coming out and “swinging for the fences.” Again, don’t expect a finish here. 8* Over Adashev/Benoit |
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07-31-21 | Royals v. Blue Jays UNDER 10 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
8* Under Royals/Blue Jays (3:07 ET): This is a series that Toronto probably should sweep. For a second straight day, they are north of -200 on the money line and they figure to be heavy favorites on Sunday as well. The series got off to a good start on Friday with a 6-4 win. That puts the Jays at 52-48 through their first 100 games, but really they should have a much better record considering their YTD run differential is +99 (only five teams better). They are 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, Kansas City was an obvious seller at yesterday’s trade deadline. They are 12 games below .500 w/ a -84 YTD run differential. Toronto bolstered its starting rotation with a deadline deal, acquiring Jose Berrios from Minnesota. That will help in the run suppression department moving forward and I also don’t see them giving up a ton of runs tonight when they send Alek Manoah to the bump. Through eight starts, Manoah has a 2.90 ERA and his last two at home have seen him not give up a single ER in 13 IP. The Royals came into this series averaging just 3.6 rpg on the road while batting a collective .228. The Under is 8-1-2 in their L11 games. Last night marked the first time the Jays got to play in Toronto in almost two years (due to the pandemic). Playing “home games” in Dunedin and Buffalo this year, the team has not been shy about scoring runs, averaging 5.8 per game. That’s the most by any team at home all season. While they were right in line with that average Friday night, I do think that the return to Rogers Centre will lead to a decrease in runs per game moving forward. A benefit here is that they probably won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead). In eight career appearances against Toronto, Royals starter Mike Minor has a 2.59 ERA. He’s coming off B2B quality starts as well. The Under is 9-1 in Toronto’s L10 games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Under Royals/Blue Jays |
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07-30-21 | Twins v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
8* Under Twins/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Minnesota is off a series with Detroit where the teams combined for 53 total runs including a slugfest on Wednesday that more closely resembled the kind of score you’d get from Vikings-Lions (17-14). But once again we’ve got an AL team heading to a NL park, which means the loss of the designated hitter from the lineup. Furthermore, Busch Stadium is a place where only 7.8 runs per game are averaged for the season. I see this one going Under as the Twins also have one of their better starters on the mound tonight. That starter would be Jose Berrios, who has a 0.75 WHIP over his L3 starts. His 4.05 ERA over the same timeframe is misleading as both runs allowed in his last start were unearned. Berrios has gone at least six innings in four consecutive starts and never allowed more than four hits. He should feast on a National League lineup, and a pretty weak one at that, which could only muster six runs in two games at an AL park (meaning they got to use a DH) earlier this week. Like the Twins, the Cardinals had yesterday off. I was in attendance when they lost 7-2 at Cleveland Wednesday afternoon. The Cards’ playoff hopes are pretty slim now, but here they are facing a last place team that has only 19 road wins all year. Look for Wade LeBlanc, who is 3-0 Under at home, to pitch better than expected tonight. The Under is 23-11-3 in St. Louis’ last 37 home games against a team with a losing record. 8* Under Twins/Cardinals |
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07-30-21 | Orioles v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
free play |
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07-29-21 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10* Over Orioles/Tigers (7:05 ET): We’ve got two “also-rans” from the American League beginning a four-game series tonight in the Motor City. The hosts are coming off a somewhat insane 17-14 win in Minnesota yesterday afternoon, a score you’d expect from Lions-Vikings, not Tigers-Twins. All three games in that series went Over with yesterday obviously being the highest scoring of the bunch. (The first two games saw the teams exchange 6-5 victories). The Tigers are now 9-4 since the All-Star Break. Baltimore is in last place in the AL East and that is where they’ll be for the rest of the year. Their 2021 fate was sealed pretty early in the season. The Orioles are 30 games below .500 and have been outscored by 133 runs, but like the Tigers they are coming off a win here as they defeated Miami 8-7 on Wednesday. That matched the O’s highest scoring effort of the second half. They scored three times over the final two innings and are now actually 4-1 the L5 games overall. The thing to watch today is how long Tigers’ starter Casey Mize is asked to go. The team had been restricting his innings, but skipper AJ Hinch made a mistake by letting him come out for the fifth in his last outing. After tossing four shutout innings, Mize then allowed four runs in the fifth. Regardless of how long he goes tonight, we know that Detroit’s bullpen (5.04 ERA) isn’t good. Neither is Baltimore pitching. Alexander Wells will be making just his second career big league start in this one after allowing a pair of home runs in his debut. Runs should be plentiful tonight. 10* Over Orioles/Tigers |
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07-28-21 | Rockies v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Rockies/Angels (9:38 ET): Throughout their history, the Rockies have been defined by an extreme home vs. road dichotomy. Playing their home games in the thin air of Denver, it’s rather easy to understand. But this year, things have been taken to the extreme as they are 11-37 in road games. They average just 3.0 rpg outside of Coors Field while batting a collective .209. But this series with the Angels figured to be different. Not only is it an AL park where they can benefit from the use of a designated hitter, but the Halos surrender 5.1 runs here at home. I’m on the Over in this one. They scored just two runs on Monday, but last night saw the Rockies “bust loose” for 12 in a rare win away from home. They had 16 hits. Tonight they’ll face Andrew Heaney, who is 13-3 Over in all starts for the Angels this season. While Heaney pitched well in Minnesota last Thursday, that was after he went 1-4 with an 8.79 ERA his previous five starts. On the flip side, the Angels average 5.5 rpg at home, which is one of the highest averages in baseball. So they should do better at the plate than they did last night. It helps to face Chi Chi Gonzalez. The Over is 10-3 in Gonzalez’s last 13 starts and there have been four times where he allowed 6+ runs. He “only” allowed four his last time out, but that was in just five innings and the game ended up being 9-6 when it was all said and done (Rockies won). Including both games of this series, the Over is 12-2-2 the L16 times the Halos have been favored in Interleague play. 10* Over Rockies/Angels |
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07-25-21 | Jamaica v. United States UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10* Under Jamaica/USA (9:30 ET): The quarterfinals of this year’s CONCACAF Gold Cup wrap up Sunday night in Dallas with the United States playing host to Jamaica. The U.S. won Group B with a perfect 3-0 record and they conceded only one time. The fact they scored eight goals, tied for second most among all sides in the group stage, is a little misleading though. Six of those eight goals came in a thrashing of overmatched Martinique. The other two fixtures were both 1-0 wins (over Canada and Haiti). The general consensus was that the Americans were a bit underwhelming in the group stage. Jamaica got here by finishing second in Group C. They conceded only two times in their three matches and like the US went into the final fixture knowing they did not need points to qualify for the quarterfinals. But unlike the Americans, who won 1-0 over Canada, Jamaica lost that final fixture - 1-0 to Costa Rica. Before that it was a 2-1 win over Guadeloupe and a 2-0 win over Suriname. However, achieving victory here figures to be a lot more challenging as the Reggae Boyz have beaten the Americans only once in six tries at the Gold Cup, including a 2-1 loss in the 2017 Final and a 3-1 loss in the 2019 semis. I think this matchup will be much lower-scoring than those two previous Gold Cup tussles. It remains to be seen if the Americans were simply being passive against Canada as they took only six shots in 90 minutes with only one of those being on target. Jamaica did control the possession against Costa Rica, allowing only five shots in the match. The Reggae Boyz are unbeaten in their last three Gold Cup quarterfinals, but so is the U.S., who hasn’t even conceded a single goal in this round in any of those three wins. All it may take to win here is one goal. 10* Under Jamaica/USA |
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07-25-21 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Cardinals/Reds (1:10 ET): Cincinnati can make it seven in a row over St. Louis with a win on Sunday. They’ve captured the first two games of this series by scores of 6-5 and 5-3. This comes on the heels of winning all four games at Busch Stadium last month. The results of the L2 days have to be terribly disappointing for a Cardinals team that had won five of six going into this series, which had them back over .500. Cincy may have the “momentum,” but I feel the “safest” bet for Sunday’s finale - due to the pitching matchup and how most Reds’ home games have gone this season - is to take the Over. Reds’ home games have averaged 11.0 runs this season. That’s the most for any team - even more than Colorado at Coors Field and Toronto (who has played at Spring Training/minor league facilities). It’s a combination of a strong offense (5.4 rpg) and shaky pitching (5.6 rpg allowed). The Reds got a better than expected start from Luis Castillo on Saturday, but I do NOT expect that to be the case today with Sonny Gray. He was really roughed up by St. Louis back on April 23rd when he gave up five runs on six hits. He lasted only 3 ⅔ innings. It’s not like that was some aberration either. Last time out, Gray again gave up five runs on six hits (this time in 4 ⅔ innings) to Milwaukee. The Cardinals aren’t in much better shape on the mound this afternoon as they’ll send out Johan Oviedo, who has a horrifying 0-10 team start record vs the NL Central in his career. It’s not as if he’s been unlucky either as his ERA in those 10 starts is 5.21. He’s averaged less than five innings per start as well. Oviedo is also winless this year (against everybody!) with an 0-5 record in 12 starts. He has a 5.92 ERA and 1.973 WHIP on the road. Neither bullpen is all that good either. 10* Over Cardinals/Reds |
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07-24-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
9* Under Rangers/Astros (7:10 ET): Texas has been just dreadful since the All-Star Break, losing all eight of its games by a combined score of 71-13! Going back to BEFORE the break, they’ve lost 10 in a row. It was more of the same last night as they fell to the Astros 7-3 in the series opener. Houston scored all seven of its runs in two innings, so there was some “cluster luck” involved. But considering the fact the Rangers absolutely stink on the road (13-38 this year!) and the Astros are now north of -200 on the ML, this should be another easy win for the home team. But as good as the AL West leaders are (#2 in my power ratings), I’m not looking to bet them on the ML today. It’s tempting, but the price is just too high. I think the Under is a much better value here as you know the Rangers aren’t going to score many runs and the Astros aren’t likely to score as many as they did last night. The likelihood that the home team won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead) would also be beneficial to an Under play as the better team will only come up to bat eight times. Texas has its best starter on the mound Saturday in Kyle Gibson. Gibson has a 2.86 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 18 starts. While he’s been better in Arlington (compared to on the road), you can generally count on a quality start from him. Now he has struggled in B2B starts, especially the last one, but he also allowed 2 ER or less in 15 of his first 17 starts this season. That includes 3 for 3 in quality starts vs. the Astros (1.89 ERA in 19 IP). I think we should also see Houston’s Framber Valdez pitch better than he has recently. Valdez has allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his 10 starts this season. 9* Under Rangers/Astros |
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07-24-21 | White Sox v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 1-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10* Under White Sox/Brewers (7:10 ET): This should be a good old fashioned “pitchers duel” on Saturday as we’ve got Carlos Rodon set to face Corbin Burnes. Rodon comes in sporting an 8-3 record (11-5 TSR) with a 2.14 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Burnes is 5-4 (8-8 TSR), but that record completely undersells just how well he has pitched in 2021 as he has a 2.06 ERA and 0.886 WHIP. Lately, Burnes has been on the top of his game by allowing just three runs in his L4 starts, which have spanned 27 ⅓ innings. Last time out, he threw 8 1/3 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts, a game the Brew Crew won 8-0. The White Sox average 5.3 runs per game on the road, but in this series they must deal with the same disadvantage that every AL team faces when they hit the road in Interleague Play -- no designated hitter in the lineup. Without the DH, they were held to just one run in last night’s series opener and it didn’t come until the eighth inning. They never sent more than five men to the plate in any inning. Four times they were three up, three down. It’s difficult to envision them doing much tonight against a starting pitcher that has an incredible 140-16 KW rate on the season. Milwaukee is not a great offensive team by any stretch. They are actually dead last among NL teams in batting average. At home, that average dips to .218. The seven runs they scored last night is a little misleading as they had one big six-run inning (thanks to a grand slam). Just like Burnes, Rodon is coming off an exemplary performance. He tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball on Sunday, with 10 strikeouts, and that was against the Astros (#1 team in rpg!). It was the 12th time (in 16 starts) this season that Rodon allowed 1 ER or less. He is on a streak of 10 straight starts with 8+ strikeouts, which is a club record. 10* Under White Sox/Brewers |
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07-23-21 | Blue Jays v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
8* Under Blue Jays/Mets (7:10 ET): Toronto is a team that ought to have a better record. They’ve outscored opponents by 83 runs this season, which is the top differential in the AL East. Yet here they sit at just 48-44 on the year and are in fourth place. The second half started well enough as they swept Texas, including a pair of shutouts in a doubleheader on Sunday (1st time they’d done that in franchise history). But their residency in Buffalo ended poorly as they were beaten twice by Boston this week, 13-4 and 7-4. Now they are set to take on another first place team, that being the Mets. Like Toronto, the Mets were idle yesterday. They are coming off a 7-0 shutout of the Reds on Wednesday afternoon. The Mets’ lead in the NL East is currently at four games over both Philadelphia & Atlanta. What I find most intriguing about handicapping this ballclub is that they are #2 in all of MLB in fewest runs allowed. But they have also scored the second fewest number of runs in all of baseball. On average, no team’s games are lower scoring than are the Mets (7.7 rpg). Tonight they are facing an American League club forced to play without the DH. So another low-scoring game would seem to be in the cards. The Blue Jays have thrived in Interleague Play this season, going 13-2. That’s the best such record in all of baseball. They’re allowing just 3.6 rpg vs. NL foes. Steven Matz will be the starter on Friday and he’s coming off five shutout innings vs. Texas last weekend. But of course, Toronto’s scoring goes way down when they hit the road and now they don’t even have a DH. Mets’ starter Tylor Megill also didn’t allow a run in his most recent start (went six innings) and visiting teams here at Citi Field are hitting only .190 for the year and scoring 2.5 rpg. Take the Under in this one. 8* Under Blue Jays/Mets |
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07-22-21 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
8* Under Rangers/Tigers (1:10 ET): Suffice to say, we can probably count on the Rangers not scoring many runs Thursday afternoon. This team is in a terrible way right now as they’ve dropped all six of its games since the All-Star Break and eight straight overall. The last three losses have come here in Detroit where the Tigers have won six in a row since the break. Five of those six wins have seen the Tigers allow two runs or less. That includes all three games in this series. Meanwhile, Texas has scored only six runs in its last seven games. I don’t trust the Tigers’ offense either, so Under is the obvious call here. The Under has cashed in nearly 62% of Tigers’ home games this season. They held the Rangers to just five hits last night in what was a 4-2 victory. Believe it or not, that was their NINTH straight game with six or fewer hits. This team just can’t hit. They’ve fallen to 27th in batting average, 29th in OBP, 28th in slugging and 29th in OPS. I can’t sell Tyler Alexander, the Tigers’ starter for Thursday, as being anything special. But right now, the Rangers are seemingly a great matchup for ANY starting pitcher. The key here is Mike Foltynewicz giving SOMETHING resembling a decent start for Texas. It has been a dreadful season for Foltynewicz and his last start was a low-point. But he’d been fairly decent in his four previous starts. Three of them were quality, meaning he made it at least six innings while also allowing 3 ER or less. The key will be limiting home runs, which admittedly has been a problem. All four of Detroit’s runs yesterday came off home runs. But I think Foltynewicz will surprise and keep the ball in the park. 8* Under Rangers/Tigers |
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07-21-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* Over Marlins/Nationals (7:05 ET): This series has gone poorly for the last place Marlins. They lost 18-1 on Monday. Things weren’t nearly as rough last night, but they still lost 6-3. The Fish are now 15 games below .500 (40-55), though they have a reasonable YTD run differential (-4). They are 5.5 games back of the Nats, who have now won three in a row after suffering through a six-game losing streak that straddled the All-Star Break. The Over is 10-2 their last 12 games, including 5-0 the L5 and this one should go Over as well. The pitching matchup looks pretty dreadful here. Starting for Miami will be Jordan Holloway. He’s made only three starts, but they haven’t gone well nor have they lasted very long. Holloway has gone a total of 9 ⅔ innings in those three starts and has allowed 11 runs. Starting here for Washington will be Erick Fedde. He’s been beat up pretty good in three of his last four starts. The most recent was the worst of the bunch as Fedde was charged with six runs after going just 1 ⅓ IP. That last Fedde start was the infamous 24-8 loss to San Diego. Earlier, I mentioned the six-game losing streak for the Nats. There were three times during that streak that they allowed 10+ runs. Now they’ve scored 32 of their own in the L3 games. Miami hasn’t done much scoring at all during a current five-game losing streak, but is probably “due” here. Holloway is only starting because Sandy Alcantara was placed on the bereavement list. The respective offenses should rule the day here. 10* Over Marlins/Nationals |
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07-21-21 | Mets v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Over Mets/Reds (12:35 ET): Yesterday was the first time since the All-Star Break that Cincinnati won. They did so by beating the Mets 4-3. That was definitely a departure from the previous four games in which they were outscored 41-21. They got a strong effort from starter Wade Miley, who gave up just one run in 6 ⅓ innings. But Miley obviously won’t be pitching against today. Instead, the Reds will send Jeff Hoffman to the mound. Eight of his nine starts have gone Over and he has a 2.033 WHIP in the L3. The Mets had scored 29 runs in the three games previous to last night’s loss, including a 15-11 win here in the series opener. The Mets’ record since the Break is just 2-3 as they dropped two of three in Pittsburgh and have split two games here. This is far from the National League’s best offensive team, but they should get to Hoffman, who has control issues and often doesn’t last very long. The Reds’ bullpen is also very bad, especially at home where its ERA is 6.09 and blown half its save opportunities. Totals in this series have been high as they should be. Reds’ games, on average, are among the highest scoring in the league. They average 5.5 rpg themselves while also giving up 5.6. Mets’ games aren’t typically that high scoring, but it’s notable the number of runs per game they allow on the road jumps up to 5.0. Wednesday starter Marcus Stroman hasn’t lasted longer than five innings in any of his last five starts. The Mets’ bullpen, similar to Cincinnati’s, isn’t very good. They have a 5.04 ERA on the road. You saw the 15-11 score from Monday and while this game may not be nearly as high-scoring, it will go Over. 8* Over Mets/Reds |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
10* Under Suns/Bucks (9:05 ET): The Bucks have valiantly fought back from an 0-2 series deficit to come within one win of their first NBA Championship since 1971. That ‘71 Finals victory happens to be the franchise’s lone NBA Championship. I’ve got to say that I’m happy to see them in this position as they were my call for both Games 4 & 5. Each time they battled back from a significant deficit. It was a nine-point 4Q deficit that they faced in Game 4. The deficit was much larger in Game 5 (16 pts), but that came early and a big 2Q resulted in them leading most of the way. Of course, that was my 10* Game of the Year. With the Bucks having come from behind to win each of the last two games, I’m a little skeptical of laying the points here. Something I said going into Game 5 was that it was pretty surprising Milwaukee won Game 4 considering they were outshot 51.3 to 40.2 percent. I didn’t think the Suns would have such a large edge in FG% again and that proved to be the case even though they actually shot better overall (55.2%) and were 13 of 19 from three-point range. But Milwaukee shot 57.5% overall and was 50% (14 of 28) from three-point range! I can’t possibly see either team matching those kinds of percentages here in Game 6. Thus, I’m taking the Under. This is the highest O/U line we’ve seen so far for this series, which does make sense coming off the highest scoring game of the series. But the teams absolutely will NOT combine to go 27 of 47 from behind the arc again. In Game 4, they were 14 of 52. And shooting a combined 56% overall from the field again is totally out of the question. Outside of Devin Booker, the rest of the Suns have scored just 140 points total in the L2 games. The number of PPG allowed by both teams in this postseason does not exceed 105.5. 10* Under Suns/Bucks |
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07-20-21 | Royals v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Royals/Brewers (4:10 ET): Kansas City comes in as the second lowest scoring team in the American League. Now they’ll be without a DH as they pay a visit to Milwaukee, who happens to be a top five team in all of baseball when it comes to the fewest number of runs allowed. Throw in the fact that it’s an all-lefty starting pitching matchup for Tuesday and I think all signs point to this being a pretty low-scoring matchup. Take the Under. The Brewers actually have revenge here as they dropped two games in KC back in May. However, since that time, the bottom has really dropped out on the Royals. They were 20-22 following those two wins over the Brew Crew two months ago. They’ve subsequently gone 17-33 the L50 games. Today they’ll face Eric Lauer, who has a 0.98 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last three starts. It should be a long day at the plate for the road team as they are averaging only 3.5 runs per game on the road to begin with. They have not homered in 10 days. But it should be pointed out that even though they started the second half by scoring 26 runs in a three-game sweep of the Reds, Milwaukee is not a great hitting team. They are dead last in the NL with a .223 batting average. The fact they are 6th in runs scored is surprising given that average. They had some real “cluster luck” against the Reds with five different innings of 3+ runs. I realize Mike Minor’s numbers haven’t been great for Kansas City, but here he’s facing a team that hits just .216 in its home park! 10* Under Royals/Brewers |
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07-18-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Over Red Sox/Yankees (7:08 ET): It took them eight tries, but the Yankees finally beat the Red Sox last night. That YTD head to head record of 1-7 is in stark contrast to the previous two seasons when the Yanks were 23-6 against their hated rivals. An important note about last night’s game. Rain was a major factor and the game was actually called after six innings. So the fact the final score was 3-1 was a little misleading. Expect a lot more runs to be scored tonight and for this one to go Over the total. Boston won’t have to worry about Gerritt Cole again tonight. Cole pitched the entirety of the game for the Yankees last night and had 11 strikeouts. It’s an obvious downgrade on the mound tonight when the Yankees will start Jameson Taillon. The Over is 11-5 in all Taillon starts this season including 3-0 the L3. He hasn’t necessarily given up that many runs of late, but he has allowed five home runs in those last three outings. When Taillon faced Boston earlier in the year, it wound up being a 7-3 loss. Martin Perez will start for the Red Sox. Like Taillon, he served up two home runs in his most recent outing. That ended up being an 11-2 loss to Philadelphia. He has a 1.675 WHIP his L3 starts. The Yankees have had their issues scoring this season, but managed three runs in 3 ⅔ innings when they faced Perez back on June 25th. I realize that only four total runs have been scored each of the last two days, but Boston averages more than that per game by themselves and this game won’t be halted after six innings like last night. 8* Over Red Sox/Yankees |
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07-18-21 | Haiti v. Martinique OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
10* Over Haiti/Martinique (5:00 ET): There is nothing on the line here except pride as Haiti and Martinique conclude Group B action on Sunday evening in Dallas. Neither side can advance to the knockout stage as both are 0-2. Haiti lost 1-0 to the United States and 4-1 to Canada while Martinique has been even worse, also losing 4-1 to Canada but 6-1 to the U.S. With nothing to play for, I expect a pretty wide open match here and will go with the Over. Haiti has never finished a Gold Cup without a point in seven all-time appearances. This is clearly their best shot to continue that streak as it was a tough draw with the U.S. and Canada being in the same group. The 2019 semifinalists actually played better than the 4-1 scoreline would indicate vs. Canada. There were numerous scoring chances at the end of the first half where they failed to convert. Now facing a side that has conceded 10 times in two matches, you can look for Haiti to put forth its highest scoring game of the tournament. I expect at least two goals from them. The reason I’m not going with Haiti here is a leaky final third. In three of their four defeats this year, Haiti has conceded in the opening 15 minutes. So I expect Martinique to score at least one goal here as well, just as they’ve done in each of the first two matches. Again, neither side has anything to play for, so there’s no reason to hold back. This is also Martinique’s best shot at salvaging at least a point. It should be wide-open and exciting tonight and if you like lots of goals, this one is for you. 10* Over Haiti/Martinique |
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07-17-21 | Honduras v. Panama OVER 2 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Honduras/Panama (9:30 ET): Scoring was not in short supply for either side in the respective first group matches. Honduras crushed Grenada 4-0 while Panama played to a 3-3 draw with Qatar. Going by those two scorelines, it would certainly seem reasonable to expect more than two total goals being scored in this one and thus Over is the call Saturday night in Group D action. Four different players scored for Honduras in that opening match. They should certainly be able to now take advantage of a Panama defense that has become somewhat leaky of late. The Panamanians have conceded three times in B2B matches, the other being an International Friendly against Mexico prior to the start of this Tournament. Honduras has now gone two matches without conceding, but that should certainly change here as they are faced with a much better opponent than what they saw Tuesday. Panama had to rally from a goal down THREE different times against Qatar to share the points in their opening match. Given the fireworks that were on display in that one, it would shock me if both sides didn’t score at least once here. That puts the Over in play. This simply looks like a bad job from the oddsmakers. 10* Over Honduras/Panama |
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07-16-21 | Rays v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
10* Under Rays/Braves (7:20 ET): Here it’s an American League team coming up to bat in a National League park, so that means no DH for Tampa Bay. Now they do a pretty good job at scoring runs away from home (5.3 per game). But the vast majority of those have come with the DH in the lineup. While Atlanta averages that same number at home and there’s no DH, expect that number to start coming down in the second half. Remember that they have lost Ronald Acuna Jr to a season-ending ACL injury. I like both starting pitchers in this matchup, so Under is the call. The Braves were busy during the All-Star Break, acquiring Joc Pederson from the Cubs in exchange for a minor league prospect. But there’s no replacing Acuna, who led the team in batting average, home runs and OBP. Unfortunately for Atlanta, their “pain” is Tampa Bay’s “gain” here, specifically for Rays starter Michael Wacha. In his last two starts, Wacha has been great as he’s surrendered just one run in 11 IP. He’s also given up just five hits. The Rays come into the second half trailing the Red Sox by 1.5 games in the AL East, though I think they’re the better team. They usually do well in Interleague games, however here they are up against Charlie Morton, who is 8-3 in his 18 starts this season and boasts a 0.927 WHIP in the last three. Last time out, Morton tossed seven shutout innings of two hit ball. That was the third time in his last five starts that Morton went at least 7 IP and did not allow a single run. In five career starts vs. TB, he has a 3.23 ERA. 10* Under Rays/Braves |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* Under Suns/Bucks (8:05 ET): The first two games of this year’s NBA Finals both went Over the total as have all four meetings this season between the Suns and Bucks. But Phoenix probably isn’t going to shoot as well in Game 3 now that the series moves to Milwaukee. The Suns were 48.9% overall from the field in Game 2 and made 20 threes. They aren’t going to match this numbers tonight. It definitely felt like Game 2 “should have” stayed Under as there were “only” 200 points scored with 4:10 remaining. But plenty of late free throws helped “seal the deal.” Look for this to be a lower-scoring game. Milwaukee had been 5-0 Under this postseason when trailing in the series. They still are allowing just 105.2 PPG in the playoffs. They’ve played eight games at home and allowed less than 100 in regulation six times. Phoenix has seen two players get hurt in the first two games - Dario Saric and Torrey Craig - so their lack of depth could become a problem. Role players typically don’t do as well on the road, so Mikal Bridges isn’t going to match the 27 points he scored in Game 2 here. Again, the team’s three-point shooting should take a major “hit” compared to what we saw in Game 2. Considering we didn’t even know if he was going to play in this series, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been rather remarkable for the Bucks. He went for 42 in Game 2 after a 20-17 performance in Game 1. I definitely don’t see him duplicating the previous game’s performance. Phoenix has allowed only 102.4 PPG in the playoffs and is right on that exact number the L5 games. The Bucks have only scored 108 and 105. This figures to be the lowest-scoring game of the series so far as the Under is 4-1 the L5 times Phoenix has been a dog. 10* Under Suns/Bucks |
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07-11-21 | England v. Italy OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Italy/England (3:00 ET): So last night’s Copa America Final may not have been as high-scoring as I’d anticipated, but you can look for Sunday’s Euro Cup final to go Over the total. This despite the fact England has conceded only one goal this entire tournament. But that one goal came in the semifinal win over Denmark and it certainly felt as if they could have conceded one more. Italy has scored more times than anybody in Euro 2020 (12 goals), but they’ve also conceded in every match here in the knockout stage. Over the course of an incredible 33-match unbeaten run, Italy has outscored the opposition by 76 goals. But making the task tougher here is the fact that this Final will be played at Wembley Stadium where England has won 15 of its last 17 matches. The Three Lions are also unbeaten in their L12 across all competitions with 11 wins and one draw. So this is a matchup certainly worthy of being a Final. While most probably are expecting a tightly played match, I think there will be more fireworks than anticipated. Italy allowed Spain to control 70% of the possession in the semifinal, plus they allowed 16 shots on goal. I know that England has only two games with multiple goals in this tournament, but it “feels” like they are on the cusp of another goal-scoring breakthrough. Maybe not the likes of what we saw vs. Ukraine, but look for them to score at least once inside of 90 minutes Sunday. Also expect at least one goal from Italy, who has scored at least once inside of 90 in every match in the tournament. 10* Over Italy/England |
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07-10-21 | Argentina v. Brazil OVER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -111 | 44 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Brazil/Argentina (8:00 ET): There were certainly many “trials and tribulations” just to get the 2021 Copa America Tournament underway. But in the end, it’s come down to the two sides everyone expected. Brazil, the reigning champs, will look to win this event for a 10th time. Argentina has 14 Copa America titles to its credit, but the last one came 28 years ago. It’s a matchup where I don’t feel comfortable predicting a winner. However, I do anticipate both sides scoring at least once inside of 90 minutes and thus Over is my call for Saturday’s Final in Rio. Neither side has been beaten in this tournament and each have just one draw as the lone “blemish.” Argentina opened with a 1-1 draw vs. Chile, but then ran through the rest of the group stage in impressive fashion. After downing Uruguay and Paraguay by identical 1-0 scores, they smoked Group A bottom feeders Bolivia 4-1. Then came a 3-0 win over Ecuador in the quarterfinals. Having won four straight while keeping three clean sheets had La Albiceleste very confident heading into the semis vs. Colombia. But they actually needed to go to penalties to outlast La Tricolor after things were tied 1-1 after 120 minutes. Brazil, like Argentina, has scored at least one goal inside 90 minutes in every match in this tournament. Their draw, 1-1 vs. Ecuador, came in the final match of the group stage. They’ve since claimed a pair of 1-0 victories over Chile and Peru in the knockout rounds. Having conceded only twice in the entire tournament is impressive, but a motivated Lionel Messi and Argentina will prove difficult to keep off the scoresheet. None of the L4 H2H meetings have seen more than two goals scored, but this one breaks the streak. 10* Over Brazil/Argentina |
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07-10-21 | Nationals v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Nationals/Giants (4:05 ET): These teams have now played five times this season. All five games have gone Under. It was a 5-3 Giants win on Friday, The previous series, which took place in D.C., was REALLY low-scoring. Three of the games ended in shutouts and none saw more than five total runs scored. Armed with that knowledge, I’ll look for the Nationals & Giants to go Under again Saturday afternoon. Only the Mets allow a fewer number of runs per game than do the Giants. Anthony DeSclafani has NEVER posted double digit wins in a single season. He could achieve it for the first time here, before we even hit the All-Star Break. His last three starts have all gone Under with him posting a 2.18 ERA and 0.968 WHIP. He did allow three solo home runs against the Dodgers on 6/28. But other than that, he’s been pretty spotless. He was one out away from a complete game in his last start. In 16 of his 17 starts this season, DeSclafani has allowed 3 ER or less. You can count on him here. The Nationals had a four-game Over streak end yesterday. Now Saturday starter Jon Lester has his own four-game Over streak coming into this game. It’s been a rough stretch, but Lester also had a five-start stretch from late May through mid-June when he allowed 2 ER or less every time out. Three of the runs he was charged with last time out were unearned. In six regular season starts vs. the Giants, Lester is 5-1 with a 2.00 ERA. Look for the Under trend with these teams to continue. 10* Under Nationals/Giants |
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07-09-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
8* Under Angels/Mariners (10:10 ET): The Angels have won six of seven, scoring 6.1 rpg and hitting nearly .300 as a team. Most of those games came at home, however. Now they hit the road where their scoring average drops to 4.3 rpg for the year. They head to Seattle to face a Mariners team that is no offensive powerhouse in its own right. The Mariners have been unable to top four runs in any of their last five games (did win yday) and are hitting a paltry .203 at home for the season! Take the Under here. Overall, Seattle is dead last in all of MLB in team batting average and on base percentage. They are 29th (next to last) in OPS. I’ve been through this before, but it is a miracle that they are four games above .500 on the season, given their run differential (which is now -50). I look for LA starter Alex Cobb, who has a 0.98 WHIP his L3 starts, to pitch well tonight. Marco Gonzales, who did not look good against Texas last weekend, will start this game for the M’s. I faded Gonzales in that spot last week as he was coming off a stint on the paternity list. With a start under his belt, he should pitch better here. He has certainly pitched well in the past vs. the Angels, going 8-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 15 career starts against them. Seattle is only allowing 4.0 rpg at home this season with visiting teams batting just .219. 8* Under Angels/Mariners |