Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-20 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Cardinals/Padres (5:05 ET): Despite some of their top hitters scuffling in September, San Diego still scored the third highest number of runs in all of MLB this season. They had the second best run differential (Dodgers) and are the #4 seed in the NL half of the draw. St. Louis, despite not clinching a playoff spot until Sunday, ended up as the #5 seed. They’ve previously eliminated the Padres in three different postseasons. I look for Game 1 of this first round series to go Over the total. If there is a question mark for the Padres in Game 1, it has to be starter Chris Paddack, who has been very inconsistent and allowed 4+ runs in four of his last eight regular season starts. Every time that Paddack allowed 4+ runs, he did so in less than five innings. His last start saw him give up 5 in just 3 ⅔ IP. The Over was 9-3 in his 12 regular season starts. While the Cardinals hardly have the most fearsome offense in the National League, look for them to score plenty of runs off Paddack. On the flip side, with the Padres averaging 5.3 runs per game at home this year, I have little doubt that they’ll do damage at the plate as well in Game 1. Over the final four reg season games, it seemed that the Padres regained their stride as they scored 21 runs, getting four or more in every game. Kwang-Hyun Kim is who StL is going with for Game 1 and this will be his first ever start against a non-division foe. (These teams did not meet in reg seasons). Over is 6-2 in SD’s L8 home games with a total of 7.0 to 8.5. Over is 12-5 in the Cardinals’ last 17 playoff games. 10* Over Cardinals/Padres |
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09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
8* Over Blue Jays/Rays (5:07 ET): Of the four first round series in the American League, this is the only featuring teams that actually met during the regular season. Being that they are rivals from the AL East, the Jays and Rays faced each other quite a bit -- 10 times to be exact. The Over was 7-3 in those 10 head to head matchups and what’s notable about that is only one time did you see a total as low as the one we’ve got for Game 1. It involved today’s starter for Toronto, Matt Shoemaker, and he didn’t last very long. I was a bit stunned that the Blue Jays elected to go with Shoemaker over Hyun-Jin Ryu in this spot. Ryu is by far Toronto’s best starter, but perhaps he needed the extra day of rest after throwing 100 pitches on Thursday. Regardless of the reason, the decision to start Shoemaker will undoubtedly lead to TB scoring more runs tonight than they would have, if facing Ryu. Shoemaker made only six regular season starts, yet three were against the Rays! The Over was 2-1 and he allowed 3 HR’s in the L2 starts. Shoemaker started just once in September and it was back on the 21st. He could be rusty. Few are giving Toronto much of a chance in this best of three series at Tropicana Field. But they actually did outscore the Rays in the 10 regular season meetings, 48-44. The Blue Jays offense averaged 5.0 rpg in the regular season and 5.1 against left-handed starters. They face southpaw Blake Snell in Game 1. Snell has good numbers but also never pitched a full six innings in any of his 11 starts. Both times he started against the Jays, the game ended up going Over. The Over was 8-3 in Snell starts for the year. 8* Over Blue Jays/Rays |
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09-29-20 | Astros v. Twins OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
8* Over Astros/Twins (2:05 ET): All things considered, this is a pretty favorable matchup for Minnesota. Houston had the worst record among the eight AL playoff entrants and has won just NINE times away from home all season. These road woes are felt particularly on the pitching side of the ledger. While the offensive numbers are fairly consistent home vs. road, the Astros give up 5.8 runs per game on the road, which is way up from the number they allow at home (3.4). That, coupled with the Minnesota offense, has me thinking Over in Game 1. Even the once-great Zack Greinke was not immune to the Astros’ pitching woes on the road. He failed to win a single road start during the regular season (0-5 TSR). Greinke also wasn’t particularly effective down the stretch either, regardless of where he pitched. Over his last 7 starts, he’s given up at least 3 ER every time out and has a 5.73 ERA. He never lasted longer than six innings in any of those seven starts, which is key because Houston’s bullpen numbers are up as well on the road. It was Greinke’s four-seam fastball that proved most vulnerable and that’s the pitch he throws most often. Opposing hitters had a .321 average against it and slugged .536. Two of the Twins’ top hitters - Nelson Cruz and Miguel Sano - slugged .868 and .635 respectively against four-seamers in the regular season. I know the Twins have Maeda pitching and allowed the fewest # of runs per game at home in MLB. But Maeda’s final reg season start did go Over and this Twins offense is good enough to send this one Over almost by its lonesome. 8* Over Astros/Twins |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 55 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
8* Under Chiefs/Ravens (8:20 ET): This number is predictably high as you’ve got two of the great offenses in this league. But be aware that it’s also the highest O/U line for any Ravens game in HISTORY! Neither of Baltimore’s previous two efforts would have gone Over this number. In fact, neither did Kansas City’s. While neither defense has faced an offense like the one they’ll see tonight, both did excellent jobs containing DeShaun Watson. The Ravens and Chiefs combined to allow just 18 PPG in their respective wins over the Texans this season. Kansas City scored just nine points in the first half last week and had only 17 before a game-tying FG as time expired in regulation. So they can be slowed down. The Chargers gave Patrick Mahomes a MUCH different look defensively than they had the previous season and I expect the Ravens to do something similar tonight. These teams have met each of the last two seasons. While Baltimore is 0-2, my guess is they’ll be better prepared for Mahomes this time around. The Ravens did score 33 last week, but they had a defensive touchdown. I am counting more on the defense to carry them to victory tonight. That may sound crazy with all the focus (rightly) on the QB matchup of Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson. But I think the success that the Ravens will have in this game, at least offensively, will be on the ground. That should chew up some clock. Jackson didn’t even throw for 200 yards last week! Both teams’ Overs this season were by half a point. KC is 4-0 Under its L4 road games. 8* Under Chiefs/Ravens |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints UNDER 53 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
9* Under Packers/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Packers and Saints are 2 for 2 on the Over, so it’s not a surprise that the total is pretty high Sunday night. However, despite averaging nearly 30 PPG thus far, not all is well in New Orleans. HC Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees were both highly critical of their respective performances in Week 1 (even though they won) and then last Monday saw them lose out in Las Vegas as they could muster only 7 points in the second half. There are now legit questions concerning Brees’ arm strength. Green Bay has put up 43 and 42 points in wins over the Lions and Vikings thus far. Aaron Rodgers has certainly looked like his old self, however there could be an issue tonight as WR Devante Adams is questionable and labeled a “game-time decision.” Adams is one of the top wideouts in the league and while Rodgers has a 6-0 TD-INT ratio thus far, the receiving corps beyond Adams isn’t great and drops far too many passes. Also, the Saints defense that Rodgers will be facing here is far superior to that of the Lions and Vikings, two teams that are a combined 0-4 thus far and total messes. Brees will be without his top receiver as well in Michael Thomas, who led the league in catches last season. So far, New Orleans ranks just 21st in total offense. They gained less than 300 total yards vs. Tampa Bay in the season opener, then last week were nearly held scoreless after halftime. Take away the 17 pts the Saints had off turnovers in Week 1 and they are averaging just 20.5 PPG. But I think their defense, which was one of the league’s best in 2019, will step up tonight. The Under is 5-2 in GB’s L7 as a road underdog. 9* Under Packers/Saints |
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09-27-20 | Cowboys v. Seahawks UNDER 57.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks (4:25 ET): Everyone will be expecting fireworks in “America’s Game of the Week,” but I think Cowboys/Seahawks will find a way to stay Under the total. This is a really high number, the likes of which you rarely see, especially this early in the season. While both teams were involved in shootouts last week - and Seattle has scored 73 points in two games behind leading MVP candidate Russell Wilson - I just don’t think the number should be quite this high. Take the Under. Dallas pulled off an all-time comeback last week against Atlanta, rallying from 12 points back in the final eight minutes to stun the Falcons 40-39. Dak Prescott threw for 450 yards, but that was against an awful defense. It should be pointed out that the reason the Cowboys were in such a large, early hole was turnovers. Three of Atlanta’s first four scores came off turnovers and five and they had four scoring drives of 31 yds or less. All told, the Cowboys defense wasn’t bad despite giving up 39 points. They allowed only 20 in Week 1, but of course Dallas lost that game because the offense wasn’t nearly as effective against the Rams as it was vs. Atlanta. That may have something to do with the fact the Cowboys always tend to struggle offensively on the road. Seattle had no problems beating Atlanta in Week 1 and that was on the road whereas Dallas got the Falcons at home. But it was a close one last week for the Seahawks as they outlasted the Patriots 35-30. Wilson now has the league’s highest completion rate EVER through two weeks. But he can’t keep completing 82% of his passes and for whatever reason he tends to struggle vs. the Cowboys, averaging only 154 yards passing in five games. The Under is 29-14 in Dallas’ L43 road games including 9-3 the L12 where they were an underdog. 10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks |
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09-26-20 | Danilo Marques v. Khadis Ibragimov UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Marques/Ibragimov (7:00 ET): This fight will kick off the UFC 253 card prelims and it’s scheduled for three rounds at Light Heavyweight (205 lbs). Ibragimov is 8-3 while Marques is 9-2, but these fighters are very much at different stages of their respective careers. Ibragimov is very much fighting for his UFC career here while Marques is making his promotion debut. Regardless of who gets their hand raised, don’t look for this one to get to the cards. Under 2.5 rounds is the pick Saturday night. Ibragimov was 8-0, but he’s 0-3 fighting under the UFC banner. So you can see how his spot is now in jeopardy. He’s been stopped in two of those three losses and in his lone appearance since the pandemic began, it was a 1st round TKO that he suffered at the hands of Roman Dolidze. In his last eight fights, only one time have the judges had to render a decision. Eight of Marques’ nine wins have been by stoppage. He hasn’t fought since 2018 though as he had a bout cancelled back in March. While I can see this fight certainly getting off to a “slow start,” neither fighter is all that talented and one is quite likely to make a mistake. That lends itself to a finish, one way or another. It should be a relatively brief opener on the UFC 253 card. 10* Under Marques/Ibragimov |
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09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
10* Over Stars/Lightning (8:05 ET): The Stars continue to defy the odds as they took Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, 4-1. It was their 12th win in the last 16 games, the last nine of which have all come as underdogs on the money line. This run of theirs has caused me great consternation as I’ve been predicting their downfall going all the way back to the Colorado series. Sometimes you need to know when to “cut bait,” I suppose. Here we are turning to the total as I see Game 2 of the SCF going Over. Tampa Bay had been rolling through the postseason, losing only four games in the first three rounds. Like Vegas did against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals, the Lightning significantly outshot the Stars in Game 1 (36-20!). But that didn’t matter as Anton Khudobin (.950 save percentage vs. Vegas) stopped all but one of the 36 shots he faced. Khudobin’s run is bound to have a “slip up” or two as no goalie can possibly maintain that kind of save percentage over the long-term, especially when facing so many shots on a consistent basis. The Lightning MAY get Steven Stamkos back for Game 2, but regardless I expect a bounce back effort offensively. They are averaging 38.8 shots over the L5 games, an excellent number, yet are also averaging only 2.2 goals over the same frame. Their L4 games have all gone Under or pushed and the Under is now 5-2-2 their L9 games. The Under is 4-0-2 in Dallas’ last six games, so I’d say the Over is “due” to hit for both teams, both of which are averaging 3.0 goals per game this postseason. 10* Over Stars/Lightning |
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09-19-20 | Darren Stewart v. Kevin Holland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 57 h 18 m | Show |
10* Over Stewart/Holland (8:00 ET): This is a three-round fight at middleweight (185 lbs). Both fighters are off impressive finishes over the summer, but do not be surprised if the first fight on the main card Saturday night requires the heavily favored Holland to rely on the judges to emerge victorious. I’m taking the Over 2.5 rounds in this one. Holland had a wild UFC debut two years ago when he lost to Thiago Santos. Since then, he’s gone 5-1 with three finishes. Both of his fights in 2020 have ended with him TKO’ing his opponents - Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Now 18-5 overall in his pro career, Holland has won 14 of his last 17 and two of those losses were by decision. It should also be noted that his last fight did go into the third round, albeit it was then over in 47 seconds. Stewart is facing a major size disadvantage in this fight, so it would be best for him to be cautious and pick his spots. He’s won five of his last six UFC fights, but those were all against inferior competition than what he’ll be up against at Fight Night 178. He also lost a “one-off” for the Cage Warriors promotion back in the early stages of the pandemic. Both losses were by decision. In fact, Stewart had a streak of four straight fights ending in a decision before submitting Maki Pitolo last month. This one goes longer than expected. 10* Over Stewart/Holland |
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09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville UNDER 65 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 24 m | Show |
10* Under Miami/Louisville (7:30 ET): The season’s 1st matchup of ranked teams takes place in Louisville where the #18 ranked Cardinals host #17 ranked Miami. As was made fairly clear w/ last week’s fade on L’ville, I’m not as high on Scott Satterfield’s team as the market seems to be. But at the same time, it’s hard for me to trust Miami in this spot as they are just 3-23 SU in their L26 away games vs. ranked opponents. But what I do trust are the respective defenses and the fact this O/U line has been bet too high. Take the Under. Miami & Louisville combined for “only” 66 points last week. I say “only” because each was facing a C-USA defense. Miami beat a good UAB team 31-14 while Louisville won 35-21 over Western Kentucky. While Miami’s game did stay Under, L’ville’s did not. But L’ville would have stayed Under had it not been for them giving WKU the ball inside the 5-yard line to start BOTH halves. Take those “drives” away and the Louisville defense allowed just 7 points on a TD that came near the end of the game. They allowed only 248 total yards as well and had 10 tackles for loss, plus three sacks. There have been 65+ points scored in only TWO of Miami’s last 23 games. One of them was against Louisville last year, a 52-27 whipping down in Coral Gables that isn’t about to be repeated as this one is one the road. Even though the ‘Canes’ QB situation has received a major upgrade this season, D’Eriq King threw for just 144 yds last week vs. UAB.. At the same time, Miami’s defense is a lot better than what Louisville faced last week. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times “The U” has been a road underdog. 10* Under Miami/Louisville |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 43.5 | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Bengals/Browns (8:20 ET): It shouldn’t be all that surprising that this total is low. The two teams combined for a total of 19 points in Week 1, both losing in the process. Cleveland was blown out 38-6 in Baltimore while Cincinnati lost a close one (16-13) to the Chargers. We’ve got two former #1 overall draft choices starting at QB in this Thursday night matchup, including the most recent. While that sounds exciting, I saw some things in Week 1 that lead me to believe both Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow may continue to struggle here in 2020. Mayfield enters his third season in Cleveland with tempered expectations. He’s already on his third different head coach and third different playcaller since coming into the league. With COVID limiting offseason interaction, my guess is that it’s going to take awhile for Mayfield and 1st year Browns HC Kevin Stefanski to get on the same page. Mayfield didn’t look good from the outset last week, throwing an interception on the very first drive and finishing with only 189 yards despite being down virtually the entire game. The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play against the Ravens. Burrow only threw for 193 yards in his NFL debut and missed some throws. The Cincinnati offense averaged just 4.4 yards per play. For both Mayfield and Burrow, this second game being on a short week doesn’t help. The Under has hit in each of Cleveland’s last five Thursday night contests. The Under is also 8-2-1 in the Bengals’ last 11 road games. As far as the defenses are concerned, the Bengals only allowed 16 pts last week and the Browns weren’t as bad as you think despite giving up 38 points. Four of Baltimore’s six scoring drives started at midfield or closer. 10* Under Bengals/Browns |
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09-17-20 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Mets/Phillies (7:05 ET): Even after a 5-4 win last night here in Philly, the Mets’ postseason odds aren’t looking too good. Making matters worse is that Jacob deGrom was forced to exit early last night due to a hamstring spasm. All things considered, the Mets should feel pretty fortunate that they won Wednesday. deGrom gave up four runs in two innings, which put them in a serious hole. But they were able to rally for five of their own, putting them 2.5 games back of the Phillies for the final NL playoff berth. For the Phillies, last night was a blown opportunity. Being up 4-0 early on deGrom is an advantage few teams get to enjoy. It marked the 5th consecutive game that the Phils failed to score more than four runs. If there is a “silver lining,” it’s not just that they have the 2.5 game edge over the Mets in the standings, but also Aaron Nola will be on the mound Thursday. Nola was originally going to start yesterday, but was bumped back a day to allow Zack Wheeler to make his 2020 debut. Nola is the staff ace as he’s posted a 2.44 ERA and 0.888 WHIP in nine starts this year. He is 8-2 w/ a 3.00 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Mets. Even though the Mets are 0-4 as a road dog of +125 to +175 and the Phillies are 10-1 as home favorites of -125 to -175, I’m not going to back the home team here, even w/ Nola starting. This is for two reasons. One is that their every day lineup has been decimated by injuries (explains the lack of scoring recently). Also the Mets have Seth Lugo starting. Lugo has solid numbers (2.65 ERA overall, 0.96 WHIP on the road) and the Under is 3-0-1 in his four starts. Tonight’s rubber match should belong to the starting pitchers. 10* Under Mets/Phillies |
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09-16-20 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Rangers/Astros (8:10 ET): The overall numbers for Houston starter Lance McCullers, Jr this season are not particularly inspiring. However, it is quite clear that when he’s on the mound at home, McCullers is a much different pitcher. He’s 3-0 in his four Minute Maid Park appearances with the team winning all four. McCullers has a 1.82 ERA and 0.892 WHIP here as well, so it’s definitely more “good” than “lucky.” Tonight he’s facing one of the worst offensive teams in the league, so it should be more “good!” Tonight marks McCullers return to the rotation after a 10-day stint on the DL. His last start was one to forget as he failed to record a single out before giving up three runs. He hasn’t made a full start since Aug 29th when here at home he held the first place A’s to just two runs (one unearned) in six innings. Clearly, he was bothered by the neck issue in that last start. Fresh and ready to go, I expect another strong effort on the mound tonight from McCullers. The Rangers had just four baserunners in last night’s 4-1 loss here and are last in the American League in runs scored, batting average and OPS. Not all the news was good last night for Houston as they near a 4th straight playoff appearance. Just as Jose Altuve returned to the lineup, Carlos Correa went down with an injury. Altuve did score a run in his return (after walking), but was 0 for 3 otherwise. I’m fully aware of how brutal Kyle Gibson has been this year for the Rangers, but Houston isn’t the same team offensively as they’ve been in years past. In fact, they are batting a collective .203 the L7 games. With the home team being such a large favorite, my hope is we avoid playing the bottom of the ninth tonight. That always helps the Under. 10* Under Rangers/Astros |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 208 | Top | 104-89 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
8* Under Nuggets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Under has cashed in eight consecutive NBA Game 7’s, including the recently completed Celtics-Raptors series. I think that game is a good “comp” for handicapping this Nuggets-Clippers Game 7 as it featured an O/U line that was significantly lower than the previous six games, five of which had already stayed Under. The Under is 4-0-2 in this series and while the previous low O/U line was 214.0 (last game), oddsmakers know what they’re doing with the total and so do I. Let’s not forget what happened when Denver played a Game 7 in the last round. The final score there was 80-78 against Utah. They shot 37.3% in that winner-take-all game while holding the Jazz to 38.0%. Since starting 13-1 Over in the bubble, things have taken a dramatic turn for the Nuggets in this series as it pertains to the total. As I already mentioned above, we’ve yet to see any game go Over. While five of the six games have seen more than 209.5 total pts scored, Denver isn’t going to be shooting 54.1% again from the field as they did in Game 6. Though I do like the Clippers to win and cover Game 7, Denver’s defense does need to be respected. After four disastrous efforts to start the Jazz series, the Nuggets have allowed just 1.08 pts per possession, which would have ranked 7th in the league during the regular season. They’ve held the Clippers to just under 42.0% shooting the L3 games. But where I feel the Nuggets will specifically “cool off” in Game 7 is from behind the arc. They’ve made 46% of their 3-pt attempts in the L2 games. For the year, they’re at just 36.4%. 8* Under Nuggets/Clippers |
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09-15-20 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 210 | Top | 117-114 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Heat/Celtics (6:35 ET): Miami and Boston may not have been the teams you expected in the Eastern Conference Finals, but here they both are, ready to meet with the winner going on to play for a NBA Title. Miami has been incredibly impressive in the postseason, first sweeping Indiana and then needing only five games to oust top-seed Milwaukee. The Heat are 8-1 SU/ATS in the playoffs with the lone loss coming in overtime. Boston is coming off a 7-game series with Toronto, but also swept its 1st round series (vs. Philadelphia). My own personal power ratings do favor the Celtics in this series, but only by the slightest amount. Boston’s defense has been tremendous in the first two rounds as they have not allowed more than 106 points in regulation in any game. As a result, the Under is now 11-2 in their L13 games overall. All season long, this has been a strong defensive team. I was really impressed how they held Toronto under 100 pts in regulation for five of the seven games. Though the series did go the distance, the Celtics were pretty clearly the superior team as they posted two double digit victories while two of the three losses came either at the buzzer or in double OT. It was a similarly impressive defensive effort from the Heat in the last round against the Bucks, who came in as the highest scoring team in the league. Miami allowed just 106.0 PPG in the five games and remember one of those went to OT. They also held Boston to 43.5% shooting, including 10 of 33 from 3-pt range, in a 112-106 win back on August 4th. If there’s one concern for the Heat, it’s that they’ve been off for a whole week. So don’t be surprised if their own 3-pt shooting “cools off” here in Game 1. 10* Under Heat/Celtics |
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09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 48 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
8* Under Bucs/Saints (4:25 ET): America’s “Game of the Week” takes place in New Orleans and it’s the 1st EVER matchup (in league history!) of two 40+ year old QB’s. It’s two of the all-time greats with Tom Brady leading the Bucs (how weird does that sound?) and Drew Brees leading the Saints. In terms of how many points are going to be scored, the expectation is for a lot, given the offensive firepower that exists in both sides. Yet, despite that overwhelming sentiment (from bettors), the O/U line has come DOWN. This is a classic fade the public situation. It’s easy to understand why the public will love the Over in the situation. Both Tampa Bay-New Orleans meetings last season went Over, each seeing 50+ points scored. Now the Bucs add Brady to the mix. But expecting Brady to be the “Brady of old” after this unusual offseason, at least right off the bat, seems like wishful thinking. It seems like there’s a good chance Brady may be without top WR Mike Evans, which would be a huge loss for the Bucs. Bottom line: I don’t see TB moving up and down the field in this first game. We’ve also got two of the premier run defenses from a season ago. Tampa Bay’s defense was actually #1 in the league at stopping the run! New Orleans was #4. The Saints’ defense returns 10 of 11 starters from last year. The one new starter is Malcolm Jenkins, who makes the secondary demonstrably better. With all the focus being on Brady & Brees here, don’t be surprised if it's the respective defenses “stealing the headlines.” 8* Under Bucs/Saints |
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09-12-20 | Kyle Nelson v. Billy Quarantillo UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
10* Under Nelson/Quarantillo (8:00 ET): Both fighters are high on confidence in this one and that’s what we’re looking for as we predict a finish (either way) in the Billy Quarantillo-Kyle Nelson fight, scheduled for three rounds at featherweight (145 lbs). Nelson, who is the big favorite, has gone so far as to predict a first round knockout. Quarantillo is known as a finisher and has gone on the record as being “100% confident” he will finish Nelson. Either way, I’d be happy as I’m taking the Under at 2.5 rounds. This will be Quarantillo’s first time entering the Octagon since a COVID-19 diagnosis in June. That diagnosis actually resulted in the cancellation of another fight (Frank Camacho-Matt Frevola) as Quarantillo was set to corner Frevola. The last time Quarantillo stepped into the Octagon proper was May when he outlasted Spike Carlyle in a decision victory. Now 14-2 in his career, Quarantillo is on a 7-fight win streak. Before the decision win in May, the previous five had all come via submission or TKO. This is an exciting fighter, but a lack of defense is a concern, especially against an opponent the caliber of Nelson. Nelson had his own set of issues getting back into the Octagon. A bout scheduled for 6.27 against Sean Woodson had to be nixed over a visa problem. So Nelson has not fought in nearly a year since KO’ing Marco Polo Reyes last September. Before that, he’d lost two in a row and was stopped each time. Nelson also has issues defensively and with just one of his previous nine fights making it to the scorecards, to me this fight is an easy call to end early. 10* Under Nelson/Quarantillo |
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09-12-20 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 215 | Top | 96-119 | Push | 0 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
10* Over Rockets/Lakers (8:05 ET): After their superb shooting in both Games 2 and 3, the Lakers weren’t nearly as hot from the field in Game 4. But ironically, they were probably more dominant. They built a 23-point in the 4Q and while the Rockets were able to get within 5 late, it was still a wire to wire win where the 110-110 final doesn’t tell the full story. The Lakers shot 56.6% and 55.1% in Games 2 & 3, yet only won those games by 8 and 10 respectively. They shot 48.9% in Gm 4 (still a good number) and won by a similar margin. The Lakers’ three-point shooting wasn’t very good Thursday (9 of 30) nor did they get to the FT line many times (16 attempts). So they are definitely capable of scoring more than they did in Game 4. What’s scary for Houston is that the Lakers may not even need improved three-point shooting to close out this series tonight. LA crushed Houston down low in the last game, outscoring them 62-24 in the paint, including 17-3 on second-chance points. They also enjoyed a 19-2 edge on fast break points. I also expect the Rockets’ shooting will improve in this must-win scenario. The only real positive from Game 4 is that Russell Westbrook scored 25 points after some dreadful shooting earlier in the series. Sadly though, it was James Harden’s “turn” to have an “off-night” as he went 2 for 11 from the floor and was 1 for 6 from three-point range. (By the way, LeBron James missed all 5 of his three-point attempts, so he’s also going to improve here). We only need the slightest amount of improvement in scoring from both sides to send this Over. The O/U line is at a series low-point. 10* Over Rockets/Lakers |
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09-11-20 | Celtics v. Raptors OVER 203.5 | Top | 92-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* Over Celtics/Raptors (9:05 ET): All things considered, the Raptors should feel pretty fortunate to be in a Game 7 with the Celtics. Their three wins in the series have been by a total of 11 points, one of them coming on a buzzer-beater (Game 3) and another (Game 6) coming in double overtime. Boston’s three wins in the series have been by a total of 43 points with two of them (Gms 1 & 5) being complete blowouts. Also, don’t forget Boston beat Toronto by 22 in a seeding game back on August 7th. Boston is the ONLY team to have beaten Toronto in the bubble and three of the wins have been by 16 points or more! But as Game 6 showed, it would be a mistake to count the reigning NBA champs out. While they’ve struggled offensively all series, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Raptors “save their best for last” here. Game 3 is the only time in the seven games vs. Boston in the bubble that they’ve been able to shoot better than 44%. This is a team that averages 112.6 PPG for the season. You have to think they’ve got one good offensive game in them. After six straight unders (including seeding game), these teams finally went Over in Game 6, though it took overtime to do so (game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation). Both teams shot miserably on 2-pt attempts, going an identical 25 of 54. I expect that to improve on both sides here in Game 7. The Celtics are 12-5 Over off a SU loss. The O/U line for this game is currently 14 points lower than where it was for Game 1, which is an incredible shift during the course of a series. Two of the first five games would have gone Over this number. 10* Over Celtics/Raptors |
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09-11-20 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10* Over Cubs/Brewers (8:10 ET): The Cubs may lead the division, but they’re curiously big underdogs here to the Brewers. That’s likely due to the pitching matchup that’s on tap as Jon Lester has really struggled of late for Chicago. He has a 7.25 ERA and 2.50 WHIP his L3 starts and has given up five or more runs in four of his last five outings. But Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff hasn’t exactly been “lights out” either as he’s lasted six innings just once in his last six tries. I’m on the Over here as a big play. Eight of Woodruff’s nine starts this year have stayed Under the total. That seems weird considering, again, he hasn’t been all that dominant. It’s a 5.28 ERA his L3 starts and he’s allowed a total of 7 runs in his last 9 ⅓ IP. He also has six walks during that time. The Cubs scored eight times in yday’s win over the Reds, snapping an 8-game stretch where the Under had been 7-0-1. I expect the Cubs to find success against Woodruff. After all, they do average 5.6 runs per game on the road. They scored three times in 4 ⅓ innings when they faced Woodruff last week. Woodruff now has a 6.00 ERA in seven lifetime appearances vs. the Cubs. The biggest reason why the Under is 8-1 in Woodruff starts is Milwaukee simply hasn’t done much scoring of its own. In the eight games that went Under, they’ve scored four or fewer runs. This is a lineup that just put 19 runs on the board Wednesday (I had ‘em) against Detroit with 13 extra base hits. Given Lester’s recent struggles, the Brew Crew should also have a nice night at the plate. 10* Over Cubs/Brewers |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under Texans/Chiefs (8:25 ET): Kansas City is off a Super Bowl winning season in which it covered its final eight games. This despite trailing by double digits in three of the four playoff games, one of which being the Super Bowl and there were less than nine minutes remaining. Perhaps the most infamous of the three playoff comebacks came in the Divisional Round against the very same Texans that the Chiefs will open the 2020 season against. In that game, KC trailed 24-0 only to score 51 of the game’s final 58 points. Though Houston obviously did not win the Super Bowl and blew a game in which it led 24-0, they did have a large amount of good fortune go their way in 2019. They were 8-3 SU in one-score games, including 5-1 in those decided by three points or less. That’s how you go 10-6 SU despite a point differential of -7 on the year. I had this team as a lock to regress even before an offseason filled with highly questionable personnel moves by HC/GM Bill O’Brien, the most notable seeing him trade away WR DeAndre Hopkins for “peanuts on the dollar.” You see DeShaun Watson vs. Patrick Mahomes and the automatic inclination is to expect plenty of fireworks (see last January). But this is the 1st game of the year, after a condensed and unusual training camp, and a very high total for Week 1. Houston’s offense won’t be close to as good as it was last year as they lost over 45% of their offensive touches. KC won’t be going on the same kind of ridiculous scoring stretch it did in LY’s Divisional Playoff Game. The Under is 11-4-1 the Texans’ L16 September games. 10* Under Texans/Chiefs |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Over Raptors/Celtics (6:40 ET): After five straight Overs to open this series (and seven straight Overs overall for Boston), it’s time for the Over to hit. Over the course of the series, we’ve seen the O/U line drop a total of eight points. That’s a fairly significant number, even though there has yet to be a game with more than 207 total points scored. Toronto shot horribly in Game 5 (2 for 15 to open the game) en route to being blown out. That won’t happen again though as the defending NBA Champs should rediscover the offense as they hope to stay alive. The numbers were UGLY for the Raptors Monday night. They scored just 37 points in the first half, including an 11-point 1st quarter. Starters were outscored 94-45 for the game as the team shot only 38.8% from the field. It was the third time in the series being held below a 40.0 FG%. They are averaging only 97.2 PPG against Boston. Again though, this is a team that scored 150 in its close out game vs. Brooklyn in Rd 1. Boston isn’t Brooklyn, but the Raptors shooting will definitely improve in Game 6. Boston didn’t even shoot the ball that great in Game 5. Sure, they finished with an overall FG% of 49.4, but from three-point range they went just 11 of 34. Behind the arc is what has largely “made or broke” the Celtics in the series. In the two prior wins, they shot 41.5%. In the two losses, they were down closer to 25%. You have to think we’re in line to get a game where both sides shoot the ball relatively well, especially from three. Toronto averages 112.5 PPG for the year while Boston is at 113.0. 10* Over Raptors/Celtics |
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09-08-20 | Orioles v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Orioles/Mets (7:05 ET): Based on the starting pitching matchup, things don’t exactly seem “ripe” for an Under today between the Orioles & Mets. However, we’ve already begun to see this high number trickle down a bit and with it still being above the key number of 9.0, Under is the correct call. Baltimore has won three straight and just held the Yankees to one run in each of the last two victories. The Mets have had a couple big offensive games recently, but that’s not really indicative of “where they’re at.” Baltimore sends John Means to the hill Tuesday. Means is having a rough season with an 0-6 team start record and 8.10 ERA. The Over is 4-1-1 in those six starts, but this will be Means second straight time facing the Mets. Last week, he allowed four runs in 5 ⅓. The Orioles would go on to lose 9-4 as Mets starter Michael Wacha allowed two runs in three innings. Wacha will again oppose Means tonight and both starters are hoping for better results. I think we’ll see that as Wacha has only pitched once at home while Means has only pitched once on the road. Different environments should lead to better results for both starters. Both games last week in Baltimore went Over. The teams split the pair with the Mets winning 9-4 with this same pitching matchup and the Orioles winning 9-5. Look for Citi Field to keep things lower scoring tonight as the Mets may not have much left in the tank following last night’s rally from a six-run deficit, which still saw them lose in 10 innings. The 14 runs they put on the board Saturday was a total anomaly and it should be noted the Under is 18-8-5 the Mets’ L31 home games w/ a total of 9.0 to 10.5. 10* Under Orioles/Mets |
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09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 113-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Clippers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): My view is that after all those Overs we saw in Denver games here in the bubble, it was only a matter of time before the Under made its comeback. The Over hit in 13 of the Nuggets’ first 14 games post-restart, but since then it’s been three straight Unders, including both games of this series. The Clippers are a stout defensive team and coming off an embarrassing defeat in Game 2, they should be ready to “tighten the screws” again here for Game 3. Take the Under. Denver has not scored more than 110 points in any of its last three games. They were held below 100 twice. Game 7 against Utah (80-78 win) was a dramatic departure from the scoring we’d seen in most Nuggets games this postseason. Then they were held to just 97 points in Game 1 by the Clippers. While the Nuggets rose back up to 100 in the Gm 2 upset, that’s a little misleading considering they scored 44 in the 1Q and shot 15 of 40 from three-point range. Clearly, a similar fast start is probably NOT going to happen tonight. The Clippers should bounce back a bit offensively from the poor Game 2 effort, but certainly aren’t going to get back to the heights of Game 1 where they made 57.1% of all FG attempts and were 10 of 24 from behind the three-point arc. Kawhi Leonard really struggled with the Denver defense in Game 2, scoring just 13 points on 4 of 17 shooting. It was just the third time in his L32 playoff games that Leonard was held under 20 points. The Under is 39-18 the L57 meetings between these teams. 8* Under Clippers/Nuggets |
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09-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors OVER 212 | Top | 111-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Celtics/Raptors (6:35 ET): While Toronto has fought back to even this series up at two games apiece, we’ve yet to see an Over (Under is 4-0). But that’s caused a somewhat significant drop in the oddsmakers’ O/U line for Game 5 Monday. While Game 4 may have been the lowest scoring game of the series to date (just 193 total pts), there were some real bad shooting numbers that we should see improve tonight. Look for the Celtics & Raptors to “finally” go Over here in Game 5. When it comes to winning and losing in this series, the key for Boston has been three-point shooting. In Games 1 & 2 (both of which they won), they shot 43.6% and 39.5% from behind the arc. In Games 3 & 4 (both of which they lost), they were 31.0% and 20.0%. While we may not see them again rise to the “highs” of the first two games, the Celtics’ long-range shooting should improve tonight compared to the last two games. The Under is 9-1 their L10 games, but for the season Celtics games are averaging 119.1 PPG. Toronto did not shoot well from three-point range in any of the first three games of the series. But they were up at 38.6% (a little above their season average) in the Game 4 victory. So far, the Raptors have had only one game where they shot above 40% overall and you have to figure that’s going to change soon. Even with the Under being 12-4 in all of their games inside the bubble, this is the lowest O/U for any Raptors’ game yet. Same for the Celtics, who are 12-4 Over following a SU loss. 10* Over Celtics/Raptors |
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 222.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Over Rockets/Lakers (8:35 ET): I had the Under in both Games 2 and 7 of the Rockets-Thunder series, winning both times, and the Under is now 5-2 in Houston’s L7 games including 4-0 the L4. Despite that success taking Unders, I believe that tonight’s Game 2 with the Lakers is the time to go with the Over. No way the Lakers shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 1. In fact, in two games vs. Houston inside the bubble, LA has made only 13 of its 57 three-point attempts. That number HAS to improve. It was a 63-55 game at the half Friday night. The halftime score was pretty similar (65-56 Houston) when the teams met back on August 6th. Yet, despite the relatively high-scoring 1st halves, neither game went Over the number. The Lakers were held to just 42 second-half points in Game 1 and really seemed to “throw the towel in” late as it was an 18-point fourth quarter. Note the O/U line for Game 2 is several points lower than it was for Game 1, creating some real value in going the other direction (i.e. Over). The Lakers also lost Game 1 in Round 1 vs. Portland. They would go on to win the next four games including two 130+ point efforts. Houston has been better defensively of late, but I’m still a bit skeptical of them on that end of the floor. But something else I’ve noticed is the Rockets haven’t scored more than 114 points in any of the last seven games. That seems likely to change as they are averaging 117.1 PPG for the season. 10* Over Rockets/Lakers |
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09-06-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* Under Stars/Golden Knights (8:05 ET): There are still only 29 teams in NHL history to rally back and win a best of 7 series in which it trailed 3-1. This despite THREE teams forcing Game 7’s in the last round after falling behind 3-1. Two of the teams that were able to stave off infamy meet here in the Western Conference Finals. There was a big difference though in the last round as Vegas was a big favorite in every game whereas Dallas was an underdog in all 7 games. That would certainly seem to indicate the Golden Knights have the advantage in this series, but I am more interested in the total here in Game 1. Coming off a wild series with Colorado where six of the seven games went Over, Dallas could very well see its scoring start to subside here against the top seed in the Western Conference. The Stars were the lowest scoring team in the regular season among the eight conference semifinalists, but have shockingly scored 42 goals in the L10 games. But now they are facing a team that posted THREE shutouts in its last series and is obviously MUCH better between the pipes thanks to the combo of Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury. While posting three shutouts of their own against Vancouver, the Golden Knights got blanked themselves in Game 6 of that series and have scored a total of only four goals in their last three games. They’ll be missing Ryan Reaves (suspension) for his hit in Game 7 Friday. Vegas actually went 98 straight shots w/o a goal against Vancouver in Games 6 & 7. They trailed Dallas 3-1 in the third period when they met in the round robin earlier in the bubble. Game 1 will be low-scoring. 10* Under Stars/Golden Knights |
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09-05-20 | Augusto Sakai v. Alistair Overeem OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
6* Over Sakai/Overeem (11:55 ET): Last week, I took the Over in a heavyweight main event and it’s the same call here at UFC Fight Night 176. While scheduled for five rounds, Alistair Overeem (46-18) and Augusto Sakai (15-1-1) only needs to make it deep into the second for this bet to hit. I think it will. Overeem has certainly “been around the block” once or twice, as you can tell from 64 career fights. A former champion other promotions, Overeem is currently ranked #5 in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division as he’s won three of his previous four fights, including a TKO of Walt Harris back in May. That TKO happened at the 3:00 mark of Round 2, which is where we need to get to in this fight. While he does have a couple of fairly recent first round finishes on his resume, before the Harris win we saw Overeem go all the way to the fifth round in an unsuccessful bout with Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Sakai is a lot more disciplined than Harris (Overeem’s last opponent), which is one of the reasons I’m thinking Over. Unlike many other heavyweights, Sakai is not a fighter that looks to end things with “one punch,” although 11 of his 15 wins have come via stoppage. But two of his last three wins have been by decision and what’s relevant about that is he’s only fought five times for the UFC. Overeem will be one of Sakai’s biggest challenges to date and thus I’m expecting a cautious approach to this fight, at least early. 6* Over Sakai/Overeem |
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09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 213.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Raptors/Celtics (6:30 ET): Toronto was less than a second away from being down 0-3 in this best of seven series, but OG Anunoby’s GW three changed all that as the Raptors took Game 3 by a score of 104-103. Still, it’s hard to shake the fact that the defending NBA Champs have had their share of trouble beating the Celtics this season. All three losses in the bubble have been at the hands of Boston and for the year, the head to head record is 2-5 SU, 1-5-1 ATS. So while we had the Raptors in Game 3 (pushed), you can understand why I’d be a bit “gun-shy” about coming back with them again here. Boston’s head to head success w/ Toronto isn’t the only notable trend when examining the season series. The last five meetings between the two teams have all stayed Under the total. None of the three games in this series have really been close with just 206, 201 and 207 total pts scored. But for Game 4, the O/U is the lowest it’s been all series and a far cry from the 222.5 pt number we saw when the teams met on August 7th. Eight of the Celtics’ last nine games overall have gone Under the total. But I smell a change being in store for Saturday. Boston has shot 47.0% in two of the three games so far and was up above 40% from three-point range in the first two games. The Raptors finally had a decent shooting night in Game 3 (46.6%), but their ability to score was somewhat undone by taking only 16 free throws making just NINE. Toronto scored 150 in its close out game vs. Brooklyn last round, so they are more than capable of big offensive explosions. The Over is 12-3 the L15 times Boston has been off a SU loss. 10* Over Raptors/Celtics |
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09-05-20 | SMU v. Texas State UNDER 69.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
*10* Under SMU/Texas State (4:30 ET): When these teams met last year in Dallas, the game just snuck Over the 63-point total as SMU won 47-17 and easily covered the 17-point spread. That was the third game of the season and SMU had a HUGE edge in total yards (639-242), so it was total domination. The second half of this “home and home” series takes place in San Marcos and is SMU’s first ever visit here. While it’s likely to result in another lopsided win for the Mustangs, I feel this game could be a lot lower-scoring. The 47-17 win by SMU last year was really emblematic of how the two teams’ respective seasons went. SMU would go on to win 10 games and make the Boca Raton Bowl (where they were thrashed 52-28 by Florida Atlantic in a de facto road game). Texas State was just 3-9 SU in 2019, their fifth consecutive season with three or fewer wins. There are some key metrics that indicate the Bobcats will be improved this year, but they’re still not a great team by any means. They averaged only 18.4 PPG last season, the fourth straight year below 20 PPG. SMU’s points per game average jumped all the way to 41.8 in 2019. I expect that number will come down even with QB Shane Buechele returning. The top two running backs from LY both graduated. I do not see the same regression taking hold on the defensive side of the ball, however. Quietly, the Mustangs led the entire country in sacks in 2019! Obviously Texas State isn’t going to score many points here and I think SMU won’t match LY’s number (47) against the Bobcats. Take the Under. 10* Under SMU/Texas State |
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09-04-20 | Brewers v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
10* Under Brewers/Indians (7:10 ET): The Indians have been an Under machine this season with 67% of their games (24-12-1) landing that way. Division rival Minnesota has actually “surpassed” them for the MLB lead in Unders, but you can’t discount the fact the Tribe are allowing a MLB-low 2.8 runs per game as they allowed just three runs TOTAL in their last series. Of course, the team’s record would be even better were it not for an offense that’s really struggled at times. They’ve scored three runs or less in 18 of 37 games. Milwaukee has gone Over in three straight as well as six of its last seven. But those games were against very different opposition, Pittsburgh and Detroit, neither of whom has a good pitching staff. Cleveland has allowed three runs or less 27 times so far, which is just phenomenal, and tonight they send Carlos Carrasco to the mound. While four of the five Overs Cleveland has had at home have come with Carrasco pitching, he just threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball at St. Louis last weekend. He’ll pitch fine tonight. Both teams had Thursday off, so there’s no advantage there. If the Brew Crew are to have a “fighting chance” tonight, it will likely be because of starter Corbin Burnes, who has a 2.29 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in four starts. Burnes threw six shutout innings himself last time out, albeit vs. the Pirates, and had 10 strikeouts. But I still see Milwaukee struggling at the plate here as they are 0-2 all-time vs. Carrasco and are hitting just .214 as a team this season. 10* Under Brewers/Indians |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 223 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Nuggets have gone Over in 13 of 15 games here in the bubble while the Clippers are 9-3 Over their last 12, including a 150+ pt effort against Dallas in their first round series. Those who made the mistake of continuously thinking Denver was “due” for an Under (I’ve been guilty!) got a “mea culpa” of sorts in Game 7 of the Utah series Tuesday. That series deciding game was an 80-78 final and obviously stayed WAY Under. It may not be that easy tonight, but I look for Game 1 of this series to stay Under as well. Jamal Murray’s history-making scoring stretch (142 pts in three games) came to a bit of a screeching halt in that Game 7 Tuesday. Murray scored just 17 points in that game, shot 33% overall from the floor and missed five of six 3-pt attempts. Concerning is the fact he took a knee to the thigh and appeared to be hampered afterwards. Another issue facing Murray is that Patrick Beverley seems likely to return for the Clippers tonight. Beverley, who is one of the best individual defenders in the league, missed the entirety of the Dallas series. HC Doc Rivers has all but guaranteed he will play tonight. Denver is a good offensive team as they rank 8th in efficiency. However, the Clippers just got done facing the #1 team in offensive efficiency and largely kept them in check. When these teams met last month, it was 124-111 Clippers. But they shot 54% from the floor, something that I don’t see happening here. This was among the highest opening O/U lines for any Denver game in the bubble. Remember they were held under 90 pts twice by Utah. At the same time, they’ve given up no more than 107 any of the L3 games. 10* Under Nuggets/Clippers |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss OVER 53.5 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss (9:00 ET): Perhaps the strangest College Football season EVER (at least in my lifetime) officially gets underway Thursday with the first matchup of FBS teams. Though the schools are separated by just 100 miles, this will actually be the first ever meeting between South Alabama and Southern Miss. The former wasn’t very good last year (finished 2-10 SU) nor were they very good the year before (3-9 SU) for HC Steve Campbell, who enters his third season at the helm. Southern Miss is coming off a 7-win season, which ended with a 30-13 loss to Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl. South Alabama’s offense was pretty pitiful for most of last season. At one point, there was a six-game stretch (all losses) where they failed to score more than 17 points. All six of those games also happened to stay Under the total. But over the final four games, something flipped as Desmond Trotter took over their starting reigns at QB. With Trotter under center, the Over was 3-1 and the Jaguars scored 27+ pts three different times. Their season even ended with a huge outright win over Arkansas State, 34-30, as 10.5-point underdogs. I expect the USA offense to “take a leap” in 2020 and it helps that Trotter will have his top two WR back. Southern Miss averaged 26.6 points per game a year ago, which doesn’t sound all that bad, but consider that the Golden Eagles also averaged a very healthy 6.1 yards per play. Turnovers at inopportune times as well as red zone inefficiencies definitely hurt them. Those things tend to “even out” from year to year, so I’m expecting USM’s PPG average to also go up in 2020. QB Jack Abraham led all of Conference USA w/ 15 completions of 40+ yards on his way to a near 3500 yard season last year. He’s also completed 70% of his passes in the L2 seasons. South Alabama has given up 30+ PPG both seasons under Campbell and has to replace virtually all of LY’s defensive front. 10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss |
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09-02-20 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 218.5 | Top | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
10* Under Thunder/Rockets (9:05 ET): When the Rockets were up 2-0 in this series, a possible Game 7 was probably the LAST thing on their minds. The return of a healthy Russell Westbrook seemed to put the nail even further in the Thunder’s coffin, but here we are Wednesday with a Game 7. I took OKC plus the points in Game 6 and they delivered the outright win, 104-100, a tremendous bounce back from what happened in Game 5 (when I was on the Rockets). Houston probably has a legit claim to being the better team here. All three of their wins in the series have been by double digits (combined 62 points). Oklahoma City’s three wins have been by a total of 19 points with two coming by 4 or less and the other in overtime. But, even off a loss, I’m pivoting to the total for this Game 7 matchup. We know that Game 7’s tend to be low-scoring. Well, the last two games of this series have both gone Under. This one should as well. The most points scored by the Thunder in regulation in any game this series was 117 in Game 4. Other than that, they have not topped 108 in regulation. Four of the six games have seen them held to 104 pts or less in regulation. I had the Under in Game 2, which was a win. The L2 games have seen OKC shoot 31.5% and 42.7% from the field. Neither team has shot better than 48.8% in any game this series. Houston has gone Under six straight times when tied in a playoff series. 10* Under Thunder/Rockets |
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09-02-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 107 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Avalanche/Stars (8:05 ET): So the Avs aren’t dead yet as a historic scoring stretch in Game 5 kept them alive to fight another day. It was 5-0 by the end of the 1st period Monday with four of those goals scored on Ben Bishop, who got the surprise start for the Stars. Five different players scored and four of the goals came within 2:36 of each other. That was the second fastest four-goal flurry by one team in NHL Playoff history. The final score ended up being 6-3. Both teams made surprise changes in goal for Game 5. Colorado started Michael Hutchinson in place of Pavel Francouz, who had struggled in the series. Hutchinson made 31 saves and almost certainly will be starting Game 6. Remember what I’ve been saying about Dallas all along. Their stunning scoring surge will almost certainly subside. They have as many 5+ goal games here in the bubble as they did the entire regular season. They’re shooting 14.0% in the series, nearly double the season average (8.8%) when they were the lowest scoring of the eight conference semifinalists. Whether Dallas goes with Bishop or Anton Khudobin, they won’t be hit like they were in Game 5.The Stars are 14-8 Under this season after giving up 4+ goals the previous game and 12-6 Under following a loss by two or more goals. While every game in this series has gone Over, the stakes are now higher and I expect a “tighter” game. We’re due for an Under. 10* Under Avalanche/Stars |
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08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Stars/Avalanche (9:45 ET): Needless to say, the way this series is going has left me perplexed. I viewed Colorado as the vastly superior side coming in. Not even injuries to goalie Philipp Grubauer and Erik Johnson changed my view. Especially since it was backup Pavel Francouz that led the way in a 4-0 shutout of Dallas back in the round robin. But that result and performance by Francouz appear to have been an anomaly. The Avs are down 3-1 to the Stars in this series (facing elimination tonight) and just 2-7 against them this season. Every game in this series has gone Over with the fewest number of total goals scored in any game being 7. Last night saw the Stars jump out to an early 3-0 lead before the Avalanche even got a single shot on goal (despite two power play opportunities). From there things tightened up as the Avs were able to get within one goal two different times, though the last was with just four seconds remaining and it ended up being a 5-4 loss. At this point, it’s obvious that Francouz is a problem for the Avalanche. But there is no other solution other than to stick with him. Tonight marks the first back to back of the series and I wonder if that will have a more negative effect on the skaters as opposed to the two goaltenders. Dallas can’t keep scoring at the rate they have been (they had the fewest number of regular season goals among the eight conference semifinalists) and we’re long overdue for an Under. This is the 1st time in the bubble either team has seen a total of 6.0. 10* Under Stars/Avalanche |
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08-29-20 | Anthony Smith v. Aleksandar Rakic OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
8* Over Rakic/Smith (11:15 ET): This is the main event for UFC Fight Night 175. It’s a light heavyweight bout. Despite being the main event, it’s only scheduled for three rounds as it got top billing on short notice and thus it wasn’t fair to ask the fighters to go five when they’d only been training for three. With this Over bet, we don’t need them to go the distance though, only to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2. I think that’s going to happen. Rakic is the lower ranked fighter (8th) within the LHW Division, but is a prohibitive favorite to defeat Smith (5th). Oddsmakers see his youth as an advantage and he should have the striking advantage. Really, he’s better in every aspect than Smith, so throw those rankings out the window. However, it should be noted Rakic hasn’t faced the same level of competition as has Smith. The crafty veteran should not be overlooked here and he can make a fight of this, or at least extend the bout. Both fighters are off losses. Smith fell to Glover Teixeira via 5th round TKO back in May. It was his fourth consecutive fight that made it to at least the third round. He doesn’t have many decisions on his career resume, but we don’t need to get that far here to cash. Rakic was on a 12-fight win streak when he lost to Volkan Oezdemir back in December in a split decision. It was the third time in his last five fights it was left up to the judge’s. Despite both fighters having reputations as finishers, recent history suggests this one is going longer than expected. 8* Over Rakic/Smith |
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08-29-20 | Dodgers v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Dodgers/Rangers (7:05 ET): One of the more surprising results of this MLB season took place last night as lowly Texas beat the Dodgers 6-2. This weekend series is a matchup of the teams with the best (+82) and second worst (-50) run differentials in the sport. (You should know who is who!). Making last night’s result all the more shocking is that LA came into Friday having won 13 of its last 15 games. They swept a doubleheader Thursday, winning both of those games in shutout fashion. But the Rangers were able to score six runs against the Dodgers last night, winning as +200 underdogs on the money line. Shockingly, I project them to do well at the plate again tonight. That’s because they are facing the struggling Ross Stripling, who has a 7.71 ERA and 2.057 WHIP his L3 starts. In those three starts, Stripling has given up seven home runs and allowed 6 or more runs twice. Overall, he’s allowed 15 runs in just 11 ⅔ IP. The Over has hit the L2 times he’s pitched, also thanks in large part to the Dodgers scoring 11 runs of their own in both games. The Dodgers lead all of baseball in runs scored. The only team within 20 runs of them is the division rival Padres. Their games average 8.8 runs while Texas is at 9.0. So I love the O/U line being under the key number of 9.0 here. Lance Lynn is starting for the Rangers and while he’s been “lights out” in 2020 (2 ER or less in all 7 starts), he has yet to face a lineup like the Dodgers have. Lynn also has given up three home runs in his past two starts. All we need is a 5-4 game to hit the Over tonight and a result such as that seems quite likely. The Over is 6-2 for Texas after they allow 2 runs or less the previous game. 10* Over Dodgers/Rangers |
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08-25-20 | Orioles v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
10* Under Orioles/Rays (6:40 ET): Tampa Bay is out for revenge in this series as they were shockingly swept up in Baltimore earlier this month. The Orioles are a lot more competitive this year as they are 14-14 and a MLB-best +8.9 units. Still, TB is likely to gain some measure of revenge this week considering they are 19-8 excluding that first series with Baltimore and in first place in the AL East. This series is also at Tropicana Field. But the odds are too rich for my blood here as thus I’ll be playing the Under instead. None of the three games in Baltimore had more than nine total runs scored. Both teams come in averaging 5.0 rpg but I don’t think that’s sustainable for either club. While Rays’ road games are averaging 11.0 total runs, home games are averaging just 8.2. The thought is that with them so heavily favored tonight, they’ll likely enter the ninth with the lead and hopefully we can avoid playing the bottom half altogether. Sometimes avoiding those final three outs can be the difference between a game going Over or Under. Tyler Glasnow starts here for the Rays. He has not been great thus far, but he is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA in four career starts vs. Baltimore. The O’s go with Tommy Milone, who is off a quality start against Toronto. When Milone faced the Rays earlier this season, he held them to one run in five innings. He’s also thrown six scoreless innings against Washington. 10* Under Orioles/Rays |
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08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Jazz/Nuggets (6:35 ET): By now, everyone is well aware that the Nuggets have been an Over machine here in the bubble. All but one of their games in Orlando (that being Game 3 of this series) have gone Over and many of them have gone way Over. Take Sunday for example, when they lost Game 4 by a score of 129-127. That put them down 3-1 in this series and now they are facing elimination Tuesday. With the season hanging in the balance, I do expect this to be a much better defensive effort than usual. Take the Under in what is the highest O/U line of the series to date. Denver has not only lost three straight to Utah, but also six of its last seven. This decline doesn’t shock me as I thought the Nuggets were overrated as a 3-seed being that they had only the 7th best net efficiency rating in the regular season among Western Conference teams. They actually started out as a favorite in this series, but things changed dramatically when they lost Game 2 by a score of 124-105, an “upset” I called (for the Jazz). The Nuggets’ only win of this series was a come from behind effort in Game 1 that went to overtime. Each team had a 50+ point scorer in Game 4, Jamal Murray (50) for Denver and Donovan Mitchell (51) for Utah. That’s pretty remarkable. Even more remarkable is that it was Mitchell’s second 50+ point game of the series (had 57 in Game 1)! While all signs point to the Jazz advancing tonight, there’s no way they are going to shoot as well as they did Sunday night when they sank 14 of 29 three-pointers and 57.5% of their shots overall. The Nuggets scored only 87 points in Game 3. 10* Under Jazz/Nuggets |
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08-23-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 104 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Canucks/Golden Knights (10:35 ET): Game 1 of this best of seven goes down Sunday with the top seeded Golden Knights taking on the fourth seeded Canucks. Vancouver started out as a 10-seed in this bubble, but has worked its way up by upsetting Minnesota and St. Louis. Even though they just eliminated last year’s Stanley Cup Champions, this series will be a far taller climb for the Canucks as Vegas is rolling right now with seven wins in their eight games since the restart. One thing about Vancouver that sticks out to me is the fact they have scored on 12.1% of their shot attempts so far. That seems unsustainable. Vegas is doing a tremendous job at limiting the number of shots their opponents get, allowing only 25.2 per game here in the bubble. I don’t think Vancouver can expect to score as many goals in this series compared to the previous two. The Canucks can play some defense though. For more than 80 minutes across Games 5 & 6, they held the Blues w/o a goal as goalie Jacob Markstrom made 45 saves. The Golden Knights have scored 4+ goals in all but two of their games, a pace they simply cannot continue. 10* Under Canucks/Golden Knights |
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08-23-20 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Under Phillies/Braves (7:08 ET): Both games in this series have gone Over and Atlanta has gone Over in four straight heading into Sunday night. After crushing the Phillies 11-2 in the series opener, it was a 6-5 win for the Braves last night as they rallied late against what could be generously called an “ineffective” Phillies bullpen. All six runs were scored in the last three innings with the final one coming in walk-off fashion. I look for a slightly lower-scoring game tonight as you should play the Under. Two of Atlanta’s runs last night were scored off an error and that’s what began their rally. The Phillies' bullpen has been truly awful in 2020 but those two runs weren’t their fault. I look for Zach Eflin to put them in a good position tonight despite his less than stellar numbers on the year. One positive is Eflin has a 23-5 KW ratio. Again, Atlanta was held w/o a run for the first six innings last night. Josh Tomlin will start tonight for the Braves. He allowed just two runs in four innings in his 2020 starting debut Tuesday (against Washington). Tomlin has also worked out of the bullpen this year where he gave up just two runs in 11+ IP. This will be his first career start vs. the Phillies. The Under is 12-5 in the Braves’ last 17 game 3 of a series. I like the number here as they are also 19-7 Under the L26 home games w/ a total set at 9.0 to 10.5. 10* Under Phillies/Braves |
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08-22-20 | Shana Dobson v. Mariya Agapova UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 47 h 46 m | Show |
10* Under Agapova/Dobson (7:00 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division (125 lbs). Agapova is a massive favorite here (-1250 on the ML) so you should expect this one to be over in relatively quick fashion. I’m willing to bet it doesn’t even make it past the halfway mark of Round 2. That’s the bet here. Agapova brings a 9-1 career record into this fight. Her UFC debut came two months ago and it took only 2:42 for her to submit Hannah Cifers. It was Agapova’s third straight 1st round finish overall. Her last four wins have all taken less than a round as have six of the nine career victories. If she does have a weakness in her game, it’s on the defensive end as she’s prone to take a shot or two. Dobson’s only real shot here would be to land one big punch and that would be fine by me, provided it comes no later than early in the second round. Dobson is just 3-4 and it’s fairly shocking to see her even fighting for the UFC at this point. She’s lost her last three fights. Two were by decision, but then in February she was KO’d in just 40 seconds by Priscila Cachoeira. Agapova called Dobson out by name after her win in June, so there must be some personal point to prove here. It likely won’t take long to prove. 10* Under Agapova/Dobson |
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08-21-20 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Tigers/Indians (7:10 ET): Cleveland posted its MLB-leading 5th shutout yday in a 2-0 win over Pittsburgh. That was the Tribe’s second straight sweep as they’ve won six in a row to surge near the top of the American League standings. Before sweeping the Pirates, they swept the Tigers and that’s who they’ll face again this weekend. While Cleveland has baseball’s best Under mark (18-7) due to them allowing just a MLB-low 2.64 rpg, their offense came alive in last week’s series at Detroit, scoring 21 runs in three games. I like this game to go Over the total. Cleveland’s offense had been showing signs of life before yesterday. They’d scored six or more runs in four of their previous five ballgames. Two of their best offensive efforts came last weekend against the Tigers when they scored 10 and 8 runs respectively. I have no doubt they’ll put plenty of runs on the board tonight as they face Michael Fulmer again. Fulmer has a 7.55 ERA and 2.038 WHIP in his three starts. He lasted just 2 ⅔ last weekend vs. the Indians and allowed a pair of home runs. He’s yet to go more than three innings this year and, needless to say, the Tigers’ bullpen has not been good either. Detroit has allowed 7 or more runs in seven of its last nine games. If Cleveland is unable to send this one Over on its own, then we’ll obviously need at least a few runs from the Tigers. They’re in luck in that they’re facing Adam Plutko tonight, perhaps the weakest member of the Indians’ rotation. When he faced off with Fulmer last weekend, Plutko also lasted just 2 ⅔ innings. He allowed three runs. Cleveland should continue its mastery of Detroit (20 straight wins!) here, albeit in higher-scoring fashion than usual. 10* Over Tigers/Indians |
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08-20-20 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
10* Under Thunder/Rockets (3:35 ET): Despite not having Russell Westrbook, Houston had no problems shutting down OKC in Game 1 of this series. It was a 123-108 win Tuesday, led by James Harden’s 37 points. The team shot 48% overall from the floor and made 20 three-pointers. They led by 21 going into the fourth quarter. It probably won’t be that easy in Game 2 as I see this being a lower-scoring affair. Oklahoma City was actually favored in Game 1, but that’s not the case here as they look to bounce back and even the series up. The Thunder have been one of the lower scoring teams in the bubble thus far as they’ve topped 110 points in only three games. The only time they scored more than 116 was against Washington, the worst defensive team in the bubble. The Rockets are not noted as a defensive stalwart, but they clearly did a good job in Game 1. Danilo Gallinari probably won’t be matching his career-high 29 pt effort from Game 1 either. Betting the Under has been profitable this season when the Rockets are playing away from home. Obviously, that’ll be the case the rest of the way. The Under is 6-2 their last eight games overall and a perfect 7-0 the L7 times they’ve taken the court on exactly one day’s rest. With no Westrbook, there’s a heavy offensive burden on Harden. The Thunder are 45-19-1 Under their L65 games as an underdog. Game 1 may have just snuck Over, but Game 2 won’t. 10* Under Thunder/Rockets |
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08-16-20 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Red Sox/Yankees (7:10 ET): The Red Sox have given up a total of 38 runs the last three games, including 21 in the two versus the Yankees. This is a very bad baseball team right now as the Sox have lost six straight to fall to 6-15 on the year, which has them in last place in the AL East. Their run differential is -40. That’s second worst in all of baseball (Seattle). Meanwhile, things are going quite well for the Yankees so far as they are 14-6 and lead the division. Their run differential (+33) is tied for 2nd best in all of MLB. With the last two days being so high scoring, it’s not a surprise that we’ve got a high total to work with on Sunday Night Baseball. Also, the Over is 5-0-1 during Boston’s losing streak as they’ve allowed eight or more runs in all of those games. The good news for this game (if you’re Boston) is that the Yankees are going to be without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and D.J. LeMahieu. While they’ve been sans the first two all series, LeMahieu is the one leading all AL hitters with a .411 average. He sprained his thumb last night. Chris Mazza will be the 11th different starter used by the Red Sox already this season, which should tell you all you need to know about the state of this rotation. Back on August 1st, Mazza did throw a couple scoreless innings of relief against the Yankees. So there’s that. Yankees’ starter J.A. Happ is 11-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 24 career starts vs. Boston, so he should pitch well against the worst Red Sox team in many years. Look for this game to defy recent trends. 10* Under Red Sox/Yankees |
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08-15-20 | Jim Miller v. Vinc Pichel OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 48 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Pichel/Miller (9:35 ET): This is a lightweight fight (155 lbs) scheduled for three rounds between Jim Miller (32-14) and Vinc Pichel (12-2). Both fighters will be north of 36 when they hit the cage Saturday night and both are coming off victories over the same fighter (Roosevelt Roberts) in their respective last fights. But that is where the similarities largely end between the two. I see this as a fight likely to go to the judges and will take the Over. This will be Miller’s 47th pro fight and his second in the last three months. He submitted Roberts back in June at UFC on ESPN 11, needing only 2:25 to do so. Three of his last four fights have gotten “Fight of the Night” honors. Surprisingly, only one of the last seven (a loss to Scott Holzman back in February), have made it to the cards. The other six, win or lose, have all ended in the first round! But that recent rash of quick fights plays a large hand in dictating this play. Before these L7 fights, Miller went to five straight decisions. Pichel is actually older than Miller but has just 14 career fights to Miller’s 47. Pichel last fought in June of ‘19 when he beat Roberts by decision. Because of injuries, this will be just the third fight for Pichel in the last two years. So he’s been far less active compared to Miller. Four of his last six fights have gone to decision. Though he’s won five of his six UFC fights, Pichel doesn’t have much punching power, so Miller is safe in that regard. Look for this fight to go to the ground and stay there for much of the time. 10* Over Pichel/Miller |
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08-15-20 | Lightning v. Blue Jackets OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* Over Lightning/Blue Jackets (7:35 ET): Tampa Bay got off 37 shots in Game 2, but could only score one goal. They also outhit the Blue Jackets, but still lost 3-1. This series is now tied at one game apiece. It was a five overtime marathon in Game 1 (I backed the Lightning there). Game 2, I had the Over, which was looking good after the first period three goals were scored. Unfortunately, we know how things ended up. Time to double down on the Over here even though no TB game has gone that way so far. The Lightning were one of the highest scoring teams in the league this year at 3.4 goals per game. They’ve scored three goals in all three wins since the restart, but been held to only one in both losses. I think they are due to bounce back offensively in Game 3. At the same time, they have allowed multiple goals in every game since returning. With the exception of being shutout by Toronto in Game 2 of that series, Columbus has scored multiple goals in every game since the restart. I’m counting on both sides scoring multiple goals here and if that happens we can obviously do no worse than a push. I do not think Joonas Korpisalo can possibly maintain his .962 save percentage in the bubble. 10* Over Lightning/Blue Jackets |
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08-14-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers OVER 5 | Top | 5-0 | Push | 0 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
10* Over Canadiens/Flyers (3:05 ET): Top-seeded Philadelphia is not only 4-0 since play resumed, they’ve also gone Under in all four games. They’ve allowed a total of just four goals, exactly one in every game. Game 1 of this best of seven series saw them prevail 2-1 after answering a Montreal goal w/ one of their own just 16 seconds later. As hot as the respective goaltenders have been this postseason, expect regression from one or both here in Game 2, which I’ve got going Over the total. Philadelphia’s Carter Hart has been lights out in his three starts here in the bubble. He’s saved 84 of 87 shots, good for a .966 save percentage. That’s even better than Montreal’s Carey Price, who has started every game for Montreal (no surprise there) and has a .945 save percentage after stopping 155 of 164 shots. As impressive as those numbers are from the two goaltenders, I just don’t see them being maintained over the long playoff haul. The Flyers average 3.4 goals per game this season, but worrisome is that they allowed 3.3 outside of Philly. The Habs have allowed an average of 33.0 shots per game since the restart. I just feel that we’re due for an Over this afternoon. Each team’s power play is due to pick it up after notching a goal in Game 1. They’d previously been a combined 0 for 23 with the man advantage coming into this series. You know that won’t last. 10* Over Canadiens/Flyers |
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08-13-20 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
10* Over Blue Jackets/Lightning (3:05 ET): The Lightning have been one of the highest scoring teams in the league over the last three years, but they’ve yet to see a single Over since the start, going 4-0 Under. Still I’m not sure that’s even on their minds right now after a 5OT win over Columbus in Game 1 Tuesday. That win was huge for TB as they were shockingly swept by the Blue Jackets in the 1st Rd of LY’s playoffs. Losing a game of that length would have been extremely confidence-crushing for the higher seed. Every Lightning game thus far has seen a total of five goals scored. They have three victories by a count of 3-2 and their lone defeat (to Philadelphia) was by a score of 4-1. But oddsmakers have dipped the O/U line down to 5.0 for Game 2 and that’s a real key for me. Despite not having either Steven Stamkos or Victor Hedman in the lineup, TB got off a playoff-record 88 shots in Game 1. As good as Joonas Korpisalo has been since the restart, being under that kind of fire will take it out of a goalie. Columbus, who has gone Under in four of six games so far, has basically played six games in the last four days. That’s brutal and you have to wonder if fatigue could start to become a factor at some point. Still, you shouldn’t discount a Blue Jackets side that’s scored 12 times in its last four games and has yet to lose B2B times. They had 60+ shots on goal in Game 1. The Over is 7-2-1 the L10 times the Blue Jackets have played on one day’s rest. 10* Over Blue Jackets/Lightning |
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08-12-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 124-111 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
10* Under Clippers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): I’ll try this again, despite the fact that Nuggets’ red-hot shooting didn’t subside in the last game, it actually got even hotter. They shot 58.4% from the field Monday against the Lakers, including a somewhat insane 13 of 23 on three-point attempts, yet still lost the game 124-121! There is simply no way Denver will shoot that well again here, a game which figures to have a little more “playoff-like intensity.” It is very likely that the Clippers will end up as the 2-seed and the Nuggets the 3-seed in the Western Conference. However, if Denver wins here, things would get interesting as it would come down to the final game. (They need to win out and have the Clippers lose out to take the 2-seed). The Clippers, who have gone Over in four straight themselves, lost 129-120 to Brooklyn on Sunday despite 39 points from Kawhi Leonard, who sat out the team’s surprising win against Portland the day prior. Sunday was Paul George’s turn to sit out. Both are expected back here. Patrick Beverley’s status is unknown, but I’m expecting better defense from the Clips tonight. Denver is the only team in the bubble to have gone Over in every game. I look for the streak to end tonight as they should start to see a sharp decline in shooting. I’m not as high on the Nuggets as they only have the West’s 7th best efficiency rating. It was a similar story last year when they somehow finished second in the standings. This year’s team is weaker based on efficiency and scoring differential. 10* Under Clippers/Nuggets |
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08-10-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 121-124 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Lakers (9:05 ET): The Lakers have first place all sewn up in the Western Conference. You can tell as they’ve lost three in row, the latest coming to Indiana (116-111) as they could not overcome T.J. Warren’s 39 points. LeBron James missed the game before that, a 113-97 loss to the Rockets. I’m not sure what to expect from LA these next two games now that they have nothing to play for. Denver, meanwhile, is fighting for seeding. They are still 3rd after beating Utah 134-132 in double overtime Saturday. It is unlikely that they will move from that position, which is where they were entering the restart. All five Nuggets games thus far have gone Over the total, though I’ve got a bone to pick with that last one. As mentioned previously, the game went to DOUBLE overtime. But it should have been done in regulation. The Nuggets had some sloppy execution in the final 10 seconds, allowing Utah to tie it up. That cost me an Under. Denver got Jamal Murray back for Saturday’s game, but Will Barton and Gary Harris remain out. After the bad beat w/ the Under vs. Utah, I’m doubling down here as the Lakers have shot poorly here in the bubble with four games at 42% or less from the field. At the same time, the Lakers just allowed their highest FG% so far in the bubble and should be better defensively tonight. They are third in the league in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are just plain due for an Under. 10* Under Nuggets/Lakers |
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08-09-20 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Indians/White Sox (7:08 ET): Admittedly, betting a Shane Bieber start to go Over the total sounds risky. The Indians starter for Sunday has been lights out through three starts with a 0.83 ERA and 0.692 WHIP. All three starts have gone Under and the Indians are 3-0 as well. Bieber has a ridiculous 35 strikeouts in 20 ⅔ IP, which is the third most for any pitcher in MLB history through his first three starts. Furthermore, Cleveland is now 14-2 Under in all games this season! However, as the Tribe showed yday, they are capable of putting some runs on the board. They scored seven times in the win, evening this series up at one game each. Now they’d previously been shut out Friday. But it was just two games ago that they hung 13 runs on the Reds. I do believe this lineup will start to “get going” and it’s worth noting the only other time White Sox starter Lucas Giolito started here at home, he gave up seven runs in 3 ⅔ IP. Now I’m well aware that Giolito has since bounced back w/ a pair of quality starts, one of them being six shutout innings vs. these Indians. But that was on the road. The White Sox are allowing more than 6.0 rpg at home thus far and the bullpen ERA here at Guaranteed Rate Field was a woeful 5.36 entering yesterday’s game. It’s a low total Sunday night and I see this game sneaking Over. 10* Over Indians/White Sox |
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08-09-20 | Wizards v. Thunder UNDER 224 | Top | 103-121 | Push | 0 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* Under Wizards/Thunder (12:35 ET): The Wizards probably didn’t even need to bother showing up in the bubble here in Orlando. They faced an uphill climb to even force a play-in game and a depleted roster made those chances even slimmer. Sure enough, the remote hope of making the playoffs has already been dashed as the Wiz are 0-5 SU and eliminated from contention. They have nothing left to play for except pride at this point and I don’t expect pride to have much of an effect these next three games. Oklahoma City is battling for seeding in the Western Conference. They are currently tied with Utah for 5th. Obviously, with home court advantage no longer a factor, it doesn’t matter as much where the Thunder finish. But they’d still like the best possible matchup. They’re also looking to bounce back from a humiliating defeat on Friday where they lost 121-92 to Memphis. Proud to say I was on the Grizzlies in that one, which marked the second time in three games where OKC lost outright as a favorite. These teams have combined to go 6-3 Under since the restart with the Wizards having gone Under in three straight. Of who’s left on the roster, Rui Hachimura is Washington’s leading scorer at just 13.4 PPG. The team is averaging just 105.4 PPG on 44% shooting here in Orlando. Oklahoma City is missing Dennis Schroeder right now and that has left an undue burden on Shai Gilegous-Alexander, whose shooting has suffered with more playing time (32.4% L3 games). Like Washington, the Thunder have yet to score more than 113 pts here in the bubble. They are actually shooting WORSE than the Wizards here. Under is 19-5 this season in OKC games w/ a total of 220+ pts. 10* Under Wizards/Thunder |
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08-05-20 | Penguins v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -138 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
8* Under Penguins/Canadiens (8:05 ET): We had Pittsburgh in Game 2, which was a must win for the Penguins, and sure enough they came through in 3-1 fashion to even up the series at a game apiece. Now comes the all-important Game 3. Both games so far have gone Under with Montreal winning Game 1 by a score of 3-2. That’s the way we see this one going as well as the respective goaltenders should continue to rule the series. Pittsburgh stuck with Matt Murray in Game 2 and he rewarded them by carrying a shutout into the third period. He made 26 saves in all. One could argue that Montreal’s Carey Price was even more impressive though. He stopped 35 shots in Game 2 (last Penguins goal was an empty netter) and that was after making 39 saves in Game 1. The thought was that if Montreal was going to “steal” this series, it would be on the back of Price. I’m not surprised how well he’s playing. The Under is now 5-0 the last five Penguins’ playoff games where they were a favorite. Obviously, that’s the case again here. The Under is also now 6 for 6 the last six head to head matchups with Montreal. The Canadiens are 12-2-3 their L17 games as a playoff underdog. 8* Under Penguins/Canadiens |
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08-04-20 | Wild v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
10* Under Wild/Canucks (10:45 ET): This qualification series saw Minnesota open with a 3-0 win on Sunday. The Wild scored a goal in all three periods while outshooting the Canucks 31-28. Two of the three goals came on the power play. I was impressed with the Wild’s defensive efforts as Vancouver got very few scoring chances in the third period. However, it’s not like the Wild can count on a similar PP effort every game. I see this being another low-scoring affair. Take the Under. Vancouver’s last playoff appearance was in 2015 and there’s only three players from that team still left on the roster. They are going to be leaning heavily on goalie Jacob Markstom in this series and he should be better in Game 2 than he was in Game 1. Markstrom had a .918 save percentage and 2.75 GAA in the regular season. The problem is going to be, like we saw in Game 1, will the offense give Markstrom any relief? The top six skates produced only five shots in Game 1. So far in the postseason, 12 of the 16 games played have stayed Under. If you remove the round robin matchups, the Under is 9-3. Minnesota is 39-29 Under the L3 seasons when coming off a win by 2+goals. All of the Wild’s goals in Game 1 came from defensemen. The fact not a single forward scored in Game 1 is maybe the biggest reason of all to look Under for Game 2. 10* Under Wild/Canucks |
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08-03-20 | Lakers v. Jazz OVER 217 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
10* Over Lakers/Jazz (9:05 ET): We’ve seen some high-scoring games so far in Orlando, but both the Lakers and Jazz are 2-0 to the Under. After squeaking out a 103-101 win over the Clippers, the Lakers were held to just 92 points in a 15-point loss to the Raptors. Utah’s first two games followed a similar script. First they came from behind to defeat New Orleans 106-104 (a game we had the Under), then they were held to 94 pts in a DD loss to OKC on Saturday. I expect both teams to bounce back offensively tonight. The Lakers haven’t shot well as they’ve been held below 40% from the field in both games. They were at 48.1% in the regular season, so it’s quite realistic to expect an improvement in this area moving forward. Toronto, who is excellent defensively, held the Lakers to just 35.4% and 10 of 40 from 3-pt range. LeBron James & Anthony Davis combined for only 34 pts. Obviously all of these numbers should go up tonight. Utah was almost as miserable vs. OKC, getting held below 40% shooting for the game. A 15-point 1Q really did them in and they never really recovered. It was the second straight game that the Jazz fell behind by double digits in the first half. They clearly miss second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20.2 PPG, but leading scorer Donovan Mitchell had just 13 pts vs. the Thunder and that number will improve tonight. This is a low total that I expect to go Over. 10* Over Lakers/Jazz |
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08-02-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 236 | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
10* Under Spurs/Grizzlies (4:05 ET): This is a pretty important game in the race for the 8th spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Memphis currently holds it, but that lead is now down to 2.5 games after they lost (in overtime) to Portland on Monday. San Antonio won their first game of the restart, 129-120 against Sacramento. That leaves them three back of the Grizzlies. A win here would obviously be huge for the Spurs, but I’m not really confident they can match their shooting from Friday. The Spurs shot 53.3% from the field vs. Sacramento in a game they were outscored over the final three quarters.They also assisted on 32 of their 48 made baskets. The keys were DeMar DeRozan scoring 17 of his 27 in the 4Q as well as Derrick White matching a career-high w/ 26 points. The team also shot 44% from 3pt range and 22 of 27 from the FT line, Again, I don’t see those kinds of numbers being duplicated here. Memphis may have scored 135 pts in a losing effort Friday, but they didn’t shoot all that well. They shot 45.2% overall and missed 28 of 41 three-point attempts. But they were able to get to the FT line FIFTY times, which certainly will not repeat itself anytime soon. Among teams still playing, the Grizzlies own the third worst offensive efficiency. They are 4-0 Under the L4 times they allowed 125+ pts the previous game. 10* Under Spurs/Grizzlies |
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08-01-20 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Over Padres/Rockies (8:10 ET): San Diego is living up to hype having started 6-2. They came from behind to take last night’s opener in Colorado, 8-7, thanks to a pair of home runs in the top of the ninth. The Padres lead the league in runs scored (52) and while they’re tied for most games played (8), their runs per game average (6.5) also is a MLB-best. Playing in Coors Field doesn’t figure to slow them down any and so Saturday’s matchup is one which I feel is likely to go Over the total. The Rockies came into this series on a four-game win streak. They’d allowed just nine runs total in the first five games, but all of those were played on the road. The total number of runs allowed this season nearly doubled with the first game at Coors and that really should not come as a shock seeing as they allow the most runs per game at home almost every season (6.7 in ‘19). Of course, they also averaged more than 6.0 rpg at home LY as well and offense wasn’t the problem last night as they had 14 hits, two of which were HR’s. Joey Luccheshi didn’t pitch all that great for the Padres in his first outing. He lasted just 3 ⅔ innings and gave up two runs on five hits. The Padres still won 6-2 as they’ve scored five runs in every game but one so far. Having struggled the third time through the order last week, I don’t expect Lucchesi to last long tonight. For Colorado, Kyle Freeland went 3-11 with a 6.42 ERA in 2019. His first start this year was a win, but that was on the road. 10* Over Padres/Rockies |
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08-01-20 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 211.5 | Top | 125-105 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Heat/Nuggets (1:05 ET): Back in March, the Heat’s goal was very simple - secure home court advantage for a first round playoff series. Miami was 27-5 SU at American Airlines Arena while just 14-19 SU on the road. So whomever the first round opponent ended up being - likely Philadelphia or Indiana - it would have been a big edge for the Heat to have the homecourt edge. Same for Denver out West as they were 25-8 SU at home compared to just 18-14 SU on the road. Now that we’re in a “bubble” and home court advantage no longer applies, where these two teams finish in their respective conference means less. Still - both want the best possible first round matchups. Denver is currently 3rd in the West, but could still finish as low as 7th if things broke poorly. This is a deep team with six players averaging double figures. Leading scorer Nikola Jokic was diagnosed with COVID-19 while at home in Serbia, but is expected to be fine for the start of the season. Depth will be bolstered by the fact 7’2” Bol Bol seems ready to go. Something that may surprise you about these Nuggets is they were tied for 5th in points allowed. I don’t really trust either side, especially Miami, to consistently shoot the ball well away from home. When the Heat traveled to Denver back in November, they shot 36.9% and lost by 20 points (109-89). It’ll be closer here as you shouldn’t underestimate the Heat’s defense either. They own an identical defensive efficiency rating to Denver. Both teams were in a slump, shooting-wise, before things got shut down. Like I said in the analysis of the Utah-NO game, I expect scoring to go down league-wide in Orlando. 10* Under Heat/Nuggets |
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07-30-20 | Red Sox v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
10* Over Red Sox/Mets (7:07 ET): This has been a somewhat unique series in the sense that the road team has won every game. Also, all three games have seen exactly 11 total runs scored. The Mets won the two games at Fenway 8-3 and 7-4 while last night the Red Sox struck back with a 6-5 win here at Citi Field. The two games in Boston did NOT go Over the total as the O/U line was 11.5. Last night’s did as the number was much shorter due to deGrom starting for the Mets. The number isn’t quite as low tonight, but I’m still going Over. Boston had actually dropped four in a row before rallying to win last night’s game. They’ve got Martin Perez set to start tonight and he did not look good the first time around, giving up five runs in five innings and that was against lowly Baltimore. Red Sox opponents have scored an average of 6.0 rpg this season. This game is a National League park, but remember that teams no longer send their pitcher up to bat thanks to the universal DH rule. On the bright side for the Red Sox, the six runs they scored last night were the most in any game since a 13-2 win over Baltimore to start the season. Mets’ starter Steven Matz did look good in his first outing of 2020, but the team’s bullpen is in shambles right now (6.39 ERA) and has already blown two games. They’ve also allowed at least one run in every game so far. Offensively, I have less concern about the Mets, who have scored 20 runs in this series and had 15 hits yesterday. This one should find a way to get Over. 10* Over Red Sox/Mets |
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07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans UNDER 225 | Top | 106-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Jazz/Pelicans (6:35 ET): Utah was 4th (41-23 SU) in the Western Conference at the time of the stoppage. They’d won five of six games. Of course, it was one of their own (Rudy Gobert) largely responsible for the stoppage in the 1st place, not that things wouldn’t have been shut down anyway. Over the next eight games, the Jazz will simply be playing for seeding as they could finish as high as 2nd or as low as 7th, with somewhere “in between” the more likely result. New Orleans is a team that has far more at stake over the next eight games as they’re simply trying to get into the playoffs. As long as they finish 9th and within 4 games of 8th, they’ve got a shot at a “play-in” scenario. Of course, all eyes are on Zion Williamson, who was away from the team for 12 days due to a family emergency and four-day quarantine. Williamson returned to the bubble and practiced both Tuesday & Wednesday, however, he’s currently listed as a “game-time decision” for the opener. Obviously, if Williamson were to miss this game it will have a substantial impact on the line. But even if he does play, don’t expect him to be up to his usual standard. For Utah, they’ll be without second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovich and his 20.2 PPG. All three previous regular season matchups between the Jazz & Pelicans went Over, but that doesn’t matter much now due to the unusual circumstances. Whether or not Williamson plays, Under is the call as I expect both sides to be rusty. 10* Under Jazz/Pelicans |
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07-26-20 | Braves v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
10* Over Braves/Mets (7:05 ET): The first two games of the series have gone Under with the Mets winning the opener 1-0 followed by the Braves bouncing back yesterday with a 5-3 victory that went to 10 innings. But Jacob deGrom isn’t pitching tonight (he started for the Mets Friday) nor do I think we’ll see the likes of the pitching performances we got from Steven Matz and Max Fried yesterday. Remember that the DH is in play for the National League this season. That should theoretically lead to an increase in scoring. I like tonight’s ESPN matchup to go Over the total. Starting for the Mets tonight will be Rick Porcello. This will be his first ever start as a NL pitcher after spending 11 years with the Tigers and Red Sox. While Porcello did win 14 games in ‘19, he also posted a 5.52 ERA. Opponents hit .291 against him in the final 22 starts. Another still ongoing issue for the Mets remains the backend of the bullpen. Closer Diaz blew yet another save opportunity on Saturday, which was an ongoing theme last season. The Braves offense, which didn’t manage much in the first 18 innings of the season, should finally get going tonight. Sean Newcomb gets the baseball here for Atlanta. His numbers were “so-so” last year and he’s 3-3 in seven career starts vs. NY. He worked mainly as a reliever last season, but did have a high WHIP (1.867) when he started. After two low-scoring games, I see this as an opportunity for both offenses to really get going. The Mets were 44-26-6 Over in division games LY. 10* Over Braves/Mets |
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07-26-20 | Lecce v. Bologna UNDER 3 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
10* Under Bologna/Lecce (11:15 AM ET): There’s not much at stake here on the Bologna side of things. They’ve been in poor form recently, resulting in them being 12th in the Serie A table. Meanwhile, it’s a far more dire state of affairs for 18th points Lecce, who did win Wednesday but still need a couple more victories to avoid relegation. I’m calling for Sunday’s match to be a bit lower scoring than what the oddsmakers think. It should be pointed out that Lecce’s recent win came at the expense of Brescia, a side already doomed to relegation. The three goals scored by Lecce were their most in any contest since a win over Napoli back on February 7th. Since play resumed, they’ve been held to 1 or 0 goals six times. On the bright side of things, they’ve held the opposition to one goal or less in four of the past five matches. Note that in one of those they fell victim to an “own goal,” which was the decider in a 2-1 loss to Genoa. Bologna’s recent efforts resemble that of a team with little to play for. They’ve gone five games without a win, though they certainly played well in a 1-0 defeat to Atalanta, who has set the Serie A record with 95 goals this season. Toss aside last week’s miserable 5-1 loss to AC Milan and Bologna hasn’t conceded more than two goals since the restart. But they’ve also now been held to 1 or 0 goals in 9 of the previous 12 matches including each of the last three. 10* Under Bologna/Lecce |
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03-11-20 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas UNDER 146.5 | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas (9:25 ET): Both teams have been going Over a lot recently (three straight for Vandy and five straight for Arkansas). But when facing each other, Under has been the way to go in the past. The last four head to head meetings have all stayed Under including a 75-55 Hogs’ win in Fayatteville two months ago. Look for this 1st round SEC Tournament matchup to do the same. Arkansas has basically been going Over in almost every game this year. Not only do they come into the SEC Tourney on five-game Over streak, the Razorbacks are 15-2 Over in conference play this season! The Vandy game was one of the two that stayed Under obviously, a 73-59 loss at Florida on 2/18 was the other. Of course, this is a team that played FOUR overtime games in the regular season (helps w/ Overs) as well. The L5 games have been far higher scoring than normal for the Hogs, averaging 164.8 PPG, which is way up from where they are at for the season (145 PPG). The recent numbers aren’t likely to hold. While not on campus, the SEC Tournament does take place in Nashville, giving Vanderbilt a slight boost. The Commodores finished last in the regular season though w/ only three conference wins. Two of those three came in the last eight days in upsets over Alabama and South Carolina. The Commies averaged 85 PPG in that pair of victories, which is highly unlike them as they average only 71.7 PPG for the season. They too are “due” for a downturn in scoring. They’ve shot less than 40% in conference play this season! 10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas |
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03-10-20 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 223 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* Under Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): As far as the O/U goes in this matchup, something is going to have to give. Orlando has gone Over in an incredible 11 straight games, a sharp departure from the way most of their season has gone. The Magic have spent the balance of the year near the bottom of the league in points per game scored while simultaneously ranking near the top in PPG allowed. Conversely, you have Memphis having gone Under in their L6 games after spending so much of their season putting up big point totals. Consider for a moment that Orlando still ranks 28th in the league in scoring (106.2 PPG), despite the 11 straight Overs, and they are also #4 in points allowed (107.2). They had been 30-22-1 Under this season before the current run of Overs began. It’s been dramatic increases on BOTH sides of the floor recently w/ them averaging 118.2 PPG and allowing 116.8 PPG. How can this be explained? Honestly, I’m not sure! But after averaging 120.8 PPG these L11 contests, they’re bound for a “cooling off” period. It’s not as if there’s been some radical transformation in personnel. Memphis has been playing great defense of late, giving up an average of just 95.4 points the L5 games. Only one time during that stretch have they allowed more than 101 pts and that was to Dallas, who boasts the most efficient offensive attack in the league this season. The Grizzlies have been massive overachievers this season, winning 34 times despite being favored in only 18 games. When favored (as they are tonight), the Under has gone 12-6. 10* Under Magic/Grizzlies |
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03-08-20 | Iowa v. Illinois OVER 148 | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Over Iowa/Illinois (7:00 ET): While these two teams are both considered safe for making the NCAA Tournament, they’re each off a loss. Obviously, you don’t want to head into your conference tournament on a losing streak. But that will be the reality for either the Hawkeyes (who lost 77-68 at home to Purdue on Tuesday) or the Fighting Illini (who lost 71-63 at Ohio State on Thursday). What I see taking place tonight in Champaign-Urbana is a high-scoring game. Take the Over. I have to admit that I do have some reservations about Iowa entering the NCAA Tournament. While one of the premier teams in the country at the offensive end of the floor (7th in efficiency), they are just 88th in defensive efficiency and that’s traditionally not a good sign this time of year. Of course, those kinds of numbers also seem conducive to producing lots of Overs. Despite poor shooting from both sides (around 37%), the game vs. Illinois still went Over. I look for the Hawkeyes to shoot a lot better in this game. The winner of this game will finish 4th in the Big 10 standings and thus get the final double-bye for the tournament. So plenty is at stake in this one. Illinois held Ohio State to 37.5% shooting on Thursday but still couldn’t get the job done in Columbus. Iowa is a tougher team to defend as they shot 50% in the first meeting and made 10 three-pointers en route to a 72-65 victory. The Over is 5-2 for Illinois following an ATS loss. 10* Over Iowa/Illinois |
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03-08-20 | Lightning v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Lightning/Red Wings (5:05 ET): A franchise-record 11-game win streak took the Lightning nearly to the top of the Atlantic Division. But they quickly regressed after that, losing five of their next seven games. Even a 5-3 win over the first place Bruins yesterday leaves TB seven points back of the division lead. But they have a golden opportunity to further trim that deficit as they face the worst team in the league today. They have beaten the Red Wings 16 straight times in the regular season. I can’t think of a single metric that doesn’t consider Detroit the worst team in the league. They have the fewest points (37), worst goal differential (-120), scored the fewest goals (138) and given up the most (258). In most cases, they aren’t even close to the second worst team. While they did beat Chicago 2-1 on Friday, the Wings had lost six in a row prior to that as well as 10 of their previous 11 games. Obviously, oddsmakers are keenly aware of the mismatch that exists here and the money line is basically “unplayable.” But I think the total offers tremendous value this afternoon. I already mentioned that Detroit is by far the league’s lowest scoring team. In 9 of their last 11 games, they’ve been held to two goals or less. The Lightning see their goals per game average drop on the road, so I wouldn’t look for a repeat of yesterday when they put five on the board. Note that one of those came on an empty net. The Under is also 7-1 the L8 times the Lightning have played in the second game of a back to back. 10* Under Lightning/Red Wings |
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03-08-20 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 225.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
10* Over Lakers/Clippers (3:35 ET): The Lakers are going for their second marquee win in the last three days. Friday saw them defeat Milwaukee 113-103 (potential NBA Finals preview?) right here at the Staples Center. LeBron and company have been in “full control” of the Western Conference much of the season and have opened up a 5.5 game lead over their closest competition. That “closest competition” is who they’ll be facing Sunday, the Clippers, who are on an impressive six-game win streak right now. The average margin of victory during the Clippers’ six game win streak is 17.0 PPG. Only one of those six wins has been by single digits. The team is 10-0 SU this season when its full roster is intact and right now is as healthy as its been all year. They just beat Houston 120-105 on Thursday, making it look easy against the Rockets’ “small ball” lineup. The Clips are 2-0 against the Lakers this season including a win on X-Mas. So this is a game the Lakers must take seriously. Being that it’s on National TV, you know they will. The Clippers are averaging 118.1 PPG at Staples Center this season and have scored 120 or more four times during the current win streak. They are prone to defensive lapses however as last Sunday they gave up 130 points to Philadelphia. The Lakers can score too as they are averaging over 114 PPG. While the two previous meetings this year have stayed Under, this one is going Over. 10* Over Lakers/Clippers |
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03-06-20 | Magic v. Wolves UNDER 234 | Top | 132-118 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* Under Magic/T’Wolves (8:05 ET): Just six days ago these teams met in Orlando and the Magic won 136-125. They haven’t won since. It’s a three-game losing streak heading into this rematch in the Twin Cities. I played against the Magic on Monday when they lost outright at home to Portland 130-107 as a seven-point favorite. That was my 10* Game of the Week. Now the Magic will be involved in this week’s top total. I can’t imagine this game will be anywhere close to as high scoring as that first meeting. The Over is 9-0 in Orlando’s previous nine games. That’s quite the streak for a team that has spent the balance of the season near the bottom of the league in scoring while also ranking at the top in points allowed. They still are only averaging 105.4 PPG while giving up only 107.1. They are way over those averages during this 9-game Over streak and oddsmakers have been slow to keep up. But tonight’s game figures to be the highest O/U line for any Magic game this season. Minnesota comes into tonight off B2B wins including a huge upset of New Orleans on Tuesday that I was on. The T’wolves shot 55.7% from the floor in that game and then 50% in Wednesday’s win here at home vs. Chicago. I don’t see them matching those numbers tonight nor do I see Orlando shooting as well as they did last Saturday against the T’wolves (54%). 10* Under Magic/T’wolves |
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03-05-20 | Boise State v. UNLV UNDER 141 | Top | 67-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Boise St/UNLV (5:00 ET): This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Mountain West Tournament. Neither team had to win to get here and the winner will (likely) face top seed San Diego State in the semifinal tournament tomorrow. UNLV is the host team of this event (as per usual) and comes in hot. The Rebels have won and covered five straight games, including handing San Diego State its only loss of the regular season. But that’s not the only streak on the line today. Boise State has gone Under in eight consecutive contests. These teams split the two regular season matchups, each winning at home. UNLV obviously has the edge here by being tournament hosts, but this is hardly a good shooting team. During their 5-0 SU/ATS run, they have made nearly 50% of their FG attempts. But that number figures to come down here. The Rebels are not a good outside shooting team (just 30.9% at home) and the two regular season games vs. Boise State saw them make only 12 of 49 attempts from behind the arc. Boise State averages 81.1 PPG at home, but only 71.8 on the road. Good for them then that they do a great job defensively at guarding the three-point line, holding opponents below 30% there for the season. Another thing to consider here is that UNLV plays at a very slow pace. They are just 249th (per KenPom) in adjusted tempo this season. Prior to scoring 92 pts against a terrible San Jose State team in the final regular season game, the Rebels had gone Under four straight times themselves. 8* Under Boise St/UNLV |
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03-01-20 | Creighton v. St. John's OVER 153 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
10* Over Creighton/St. John’s (12:00 ET): Very quietly, Creighton is a team peaking at the right time. While the Bluejays may not be garnering much national attention, they have made a pretty clear case to be considered one of the top 15 teams in America and perhaps the best in the Big East. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games including a current five-game win streak where they’ve covered the spread in every game. The primary reason for their success is an offense which ranks 5th nationally in efficiency. St. John’s isn’t having as much success as Creighton this season, but they can still score. Especially when they play at home. The Johnnies are averaging 77.2 PPG here, but that hasn’t done them much good lately as they are coming off losses at both Seton Hall and Villanova. Over the L5 games, the Red Storm have permitted their opponents to shoot 48.4% from the field. Creighton is obviously going to present a very tough challenge considering they come in averaging 78.2 PPG for the season. I’ve established that both teams are capable of scoring plenty of points on any given night. For further evidence of that, let’s look at the last time they met, which was back on Feb 8th in Omaha. Creighton won that game 94-82 as an 8.5-pt favorite and it obviously sailed well past the total. I know it’s been “tough sledding” of late for the Johnnie’s w/o leading scorer Heron, but they’ll do enough offensively here for another Over. 10* Over Creighton/St. John’s |
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02-29-20 | Southampton v. West Ham United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 89 h 39 m | Show |
10* Over West Ham/Southampton (10:00 AM ET): West Ham United is where you don’t want to be and that’s among the bottom three in the table, meaning they are in danger of relegation right now. Monday’s 3-2 loss to Liverpool marked the eighth consecutive match where the Hammers failed to emerge victorious. Four of those matches (0W 6L 2D) have seen them fail to score a goal while in two others they managed only one. But the multi-score effort from Monday provides some hope for more goal scoring Saturday. Southampton put an end to its own four-match run without a win last Saturday with a 2-0 decision over Aston Villa. Keeping a clean sheet is not something you expect from the Saints. After all, they’ve conceded 48 times this season, matching West Ham for the third most goals allowed in the entire EPL. So by that standard, there’s every reason to expect at least one of these teams will score twice on Saturday. In fact, West Ham can claim four consecutive Premier League victories over Southampton and they have scored nine times in the process. West Ham is a desperate side and playing at home. A breakout seems logical given the daunting schedule they just faced, which included matches w/ Liverpool, Man City & Leicester City. At the same time, the Saints have only drawn a blank once in 13 games in all competitions and that was away to Liverpool. 10* Over West Ham/Southampton |
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02-28-20 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 215 | Top | 99-96 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
10* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:35 ET): Charlotte picked up a rare win Wednesday by beating the Knicks 107-101. Despite that, and the fact they pulled off three additional upsets surrounding the All-Star Break, things remain rather dire for the Hornets as they own the 4th worst point differential in the league and have dropped 21 of their last 28 games overall. This is a bad basketball team, a point we made abundantly clear last Saturday when we faded them at home vs. Kyrie Irving-less Brooklyn. The Hornets lost 115-86. Toronto, on the other hand, is playing great. The reigning NBA Champs did just get humbled here at home by Milwaukee (Eastern Conf Finals preview?), but before that they had won 17 of 18 games. Interestingly enough, the Raptors were held under 100 points in the only two games they have lost since mid-January. Clearly, we don’t see that happening here as Charlotte gives up 110 PPG and are a poor 25th in defensive efficiency. It’s a virtual lock that the Raptors will improve upon the 35.2% shooting we saw vs. the Bucks. The champs are averaging 116.5 PPG at home this season, so what happened Tuesday vs. Milwaukee should be considered a total anomaly. It was a game between the two top teams in defensive efficiency as well. This one should be a lot different. Charlotte may rank near the bottom of the league in PPG, but I see them scoring enough to help send this game Over the total. Seven of the last eight times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. It was a 112-110 Toronto win in Charlotte last month. 10* Over Hornets/Raptors |
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02-27-20 | Stars v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Over Stars/Bruins (7:35 ET): I’ve been having a lot of success betting NHL totals recently as Tuesday’s Over pick (CHI-STL) saw a combined 11 goals scored while last night’s 10* Total of the Week (and Under) ended up as a 3-0 shutout (Vegas over Edmonton). Of course, there was also last Friday’s 10* Total of the Month on Under Nashville-Chicago, which saw the teams enter overtime tied at 1-1. Tonight there looks to be a high-scoring game on the horizon between Dallas and Boston. Take the Over in this one. Boston has led the Atlantic Division basically the entire season. But with Tampa Bay catching fire over the last month or so, the race for 1st place (and probably the President’s Trophy as well) has gotten a lot tighter. The Bruins’ lead is down to five points and was even tighter recently. They’ve lost B2B games, but have been fortunate that the Lightning have lost three straight. The Bruins are very impressive at home w/ just three regulation losses here all season. They average 3.4 goals per game on home ice. Note how low the total is here. That’s because these are the two top teams in terms of fewest goals allowed in the league. Still, that doesn’t mean the # should be this low. For instance, Boston has given up 14 goals in just the last two games including a stunning NINE in a loss to Vancouver last Saturday. Dallas just scored four goals by itself in its last game (at Carolina) but also gave up five in a recent loss to St. Louis. Both sides are capable of “going off” offensively and it’s not often you get an O/U line of 5.0 anymore. 10* Over Stars/Bruins |
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02-26-20 | Oilers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
10* Under Oilers/Golden Knights (10:38 ET): It's a really tight race at the top of the Pacific Division right now. Vegas, who has won six in a row, currently leads with 76 points. But both Vancouver and Edmonton are only two points behind. Tonight, the Golden Knights host one of those teams (Edmonton) in a very important matchup. But who wins here is of little importance to me as I see a total that’s been set too high for such a high-stakes battle. The offense has come alive for Vegas during this six-game win streak as they’ve scored at least 5 times in four of the six games. That includes each of the last three with a 6-5 win over Anaheim on Sunday (in OT) being the most recent decision. Tonight is the start of what looks to be a very favorable homestand for the Golden Knights. But we don’t see the recent level of goal scoring continuing. Also, the team is 5-1 Under the previous six times they’ve been off a game where they allowed 5+ goals. Edmonton lost 4-3 last night in Anaheim, also an overtime game, which would seemingly put them at a disadvantage tonight. But note the Oilers are a perfect 6-0 this season playing in the second night of a back to back. However, over a longer term, they are just 4-10 SU after going to OT the previous day. Last night’s game was 3-2 late in the 3rd period (Edmonton trailed) so it easily could have stayed Under. This one will as that’s how four of the five all-time meetings in Vegas have gone. 10* Under Oilers/Golden Knights |
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02-25-20 | Blackhawks v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Blackhawks/Blues (8:05 ET): The last place and first place teams in the Central meet in an old Norris Division rivalry matchup. St. Louis, after losing five in a row, has circled the wagons to win its last four games while conceding just two goals! Chicago, as you’d expect from a last place club, has dropped three of four and scored just eight goals in the process. But I believe this game will be higher scoring than expected. |
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02-25-20 | Hornets v. Pacers OVER 208.5 | Top | 80-119 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10* Over Hornets/Pacers (7:05 ET): Charlotte is a team that I have very little regard for right now. I’ve been pretty steadfast in this mindset, which is why I went “all in” against them Saturday with a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER release on Brooklyn. The final score of that game was 115-86 (in the Nets’ favor) as Charlotte’s per game point differential for the season dropped to -7.4. That’s 4th worst in the league. There seems to be a very good chance Indiana will finish 6th in the Eastern Conference as they simply lack the kind of home court dominance we see from the the two teams (Miami, Philadelphia) that are ahead of them in the standings. But it was the road that was unkind to the Pacers Sunday as they were severely routed 127-81 by Toronto. That putrid effort saw them held to 32.6% shooting for the game. It was easily their worst margin of defeat this season. Indiana hasn’t shot well in either of its games since the Break. Despite sustaining some injuries, you have to figure they’ll see their shooting improve upon returning home tonight. This is a team that normally shoots the ball pretty well (47.4%) and they average almost 110 PPG. As for Charlotte, they too shot poorly in their last game and I expect improvement there. This is a really low total by 2020 NBA standards. 10* Over Hornets/Pacers |
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02-25-20 | La Salle v. Davidson UNDER 138.5 | Top | 49-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Under LaSalle/Davidson (7:00 ET): Davidson had certainly hoped to be a bigger factor in the A-10 this year, but like everyone else in the conference, the Wildcats are looking up at Dayton. Still though, that hasn’t stopped them from playing better of late. Davidson has won 7 of its last 10 games with one of the losses coming in 4OT’s and another coming by a single point. Of particular interest to this selection is the fact the L4 games have all gone Over the number. LaSalle went 2-0 last week including an upset win at GW on Sunday. The Explorers entered their last game as three-point pups and came away w/ a 72-62 win in what was (sadly) maybe their most impressive showing in conference play so far. Prior to last week, LaSalle was just 2-10 SU in A-10 games. Their three conference wins besides the one at GW have come at the expense of Fordham & St. Joe’s, who are a combined 2-26 SU in conference play and tied for last. I mentioned earlier that Davidson’s L4 games have all gone Over. Well, the last one would NOT have done so had it not been for OT. There was also another game in the streak that saw them sink a season-high 18 three-pointers (against Fordham), which won’t happen again anytime soon. Davidson is actually a good defensive team (allowing just 61.1 PPG at home) and w/ LaSalle shooting only 40% in conference play, this looks like a pretty clear Under to me. 10* Under LaSalle/Davidson |
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02-23-20 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
10* Under Celtics/Lakers (3:30 ET): This long-standing rivalry is certainly relevant again with the Celtics in third place in the East and the Lakers leading the West. Boston lost just once in its L10 games and that was at Houston before the Break. Since the 2nd half of the season began, they’ve beaten the Clippers 141-133 and T’wolves 127-117. As you might guess from those two scores, both games easily went Over. The Lakers have won four in a row overall to solidify their lead atop the Western Conference standings. They’ve played only one game since the Break and it was a 117-105 win over Memphis (who was in the second night of a back to back) Friday night. During the win streak, LA has scored a minimum of 117 pts every time. They’ve also covered the spread in the last three games. While both sides have scored plenty recently, don’t go discounting their ability to play defense. The Lakers are giving up only 104.8 PPG at home, which is a really impressive number for 2020. Opponents shoot just 43.6% when they visit LA. Believe it or not, the Celtics allow a slightly lower FG% on the road. These are two of the top five teams in the league in defensive efficiency. A meeting last month in Beantown saw the Celtics score 139 points. That won’t be happening again here. 10* Under Celtics/Lakers |
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02-23-20 | Blackhawks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Blackhawks/Stars (3:00 ET): On Friday, I won by *10* Total of the Month as the Blackhawks’ game vs. the Predators easily stayed Under the number. It was a 1-1 game entering OT (total was 6.5), which Chicago would go onto win. I followed that up by cashing the Preds (in another OT game) last night. Now we go back to the Blackhawks, who are in Dallas Sunday afternoon. Look for this to be a higher scoring game than their last one. Yes, I say that knowing full well that the Stars are among the stingiest teams in the league, particularly on home ice. But they just got tagged for five goals by St. Louis in a loss Friday. The Over is 3-0-1 in Dallas’ previous four games w/ them also allowing 4 goals in a loss at Ottawa during that stretch. For Chicago, the Over is 13-3 the L16 times they’ve been off a game where they scored two goals or less. While they haven’t done a ton of scoring recently, the Blackhawks did have a game at Calgary on 2.15 where they found the back of the net EIGHT times. They also gave up six goals in a loss to the Rangers earlier this week. 10* Over Blackhawks/Stars |
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02-22-20 | Cal-Irvine v. CS-Northridge OVER 149 | Top | 87-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
10* Over UC Irvine/CS Northridge (10:00 ET): UC Irvine has been the dominant team out in the Big West the last two seasons. Last year, the Anteaters went 15-1 SU in conference play and 31-6 SU overall. They’re not nearly that dominant this season, but still have only lost two conference games and come into Saturday having won three straight. Thursday saw them avenge one of those two Big West defeats as they easily handled Long Beach State, winning that game 70-55 as 15-point favorites (so it was a push). CS Northridge was a team seemingly “left for dead” at one point as the Matadors started their season with seven consecutive losses. They are 11-9 SU since, but just got blitzed by UC Davis on Thursday, losing 110-98! No there wasn’t any overtime involved to get to that final score. Both teams shot almost 60% from the game and were a combined 25 of 44 on three-point attempts. While we shouldn’t expect that level of shooting again, it would require a pretty substantial dropoff for this one to go Under. UC Irvine’s last four games have all gone Under as they’ve held the opposition to just over 60 PPG. But that’s going to be hard to do here as CS Northridge averages more than 80 PPG at home. Of course, you should also expect UC Irvine to score it’s “fair share” as Northridge is giving up almost 80 PPG for the season. This is the first meeting of the year and what’s interesting for UC Irvine is that the majority of their first meetings w/ conference opponents this year have gone Over. 10* Over UC Irvine/CS Northridge |
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02-21-20 | Predators v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Predators/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): Chicago has just one win in its last eight games and it saw them score 8 times (at Calgary). Other than that though, they haven’t topped 3 goals in any game since before the All-Star Break. As a result of their recent losing ways, the Blackhawks currently reside in the basement of the Central Division w/ just 60 points. While that’s actually just nine points back of the Wild Card, it would likely take something miraculous for the ‘Hawks to make the playoffs given the number of teams they’d need to jump. Nashville is in a slightly better position right now w/ 65 points. They’d won three in a row, including a home & home sweep of St. Louis, before dropping a 4-1 decision to Carolina on Tuesday. That was at home. For the most part, Predators’ road games have been pretty high scoring with the Over going 20-10 and them averaging 3.5 gpg while conceding 3.4. But because of those numbers, we’re getting a high total to work with here. Seven of the Preds’ last nine games have stayed Under including three of five on the road. The key is that both games that had totals of 6.5 stayed Under. Chicago probably isn’t going to score many goals tonight given its recent form. It then becomes a question of holding Nashville’s offense in check. The Rangers scored six times on the Blackhawks Wednesday night. It was the 4th time this season Chicago allowed 6+ goals in a game. After the previous three, they’ve responded by allowing just eight total. Nashville also gets key defenseman Ryan Ellis back for this game. 10* Under Predators/Blackhawks |
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02-21-20 | Suns v. Raptors UNDER 228.5 | Top | 101-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Suns/Raptors (7:35 ET): I happen to think Phoenix is a lot better than its record (22-33 SU) shows as they’ve only been outscored by 1.2 PPG and actually have a positive net efficiency rating. By those metrics the Suns are actually the 8th best team in the Western Conference, but they still face a healthy six game deficit to make the playoffs, which is something the franchise has not done since 2010 (2nd longest drought in league). Unfortunately for the Suns, having to head for Toronto is not exactly the most ideal way to start the 2nd half. The defending NBA Champion Raptors have really hit their stride over the last month or so, winning a franchise record 15 in a row from 1/15-2/10. That win streak was halted in the final game before the All-Star Break as they fell 101-91 in Brooklyn. The last time the Raptors lost a game “North of the Border” was January 12th - by a single point - to San Antonio. Look for the Raptors to finish either 2nd or 3rd in the East as they fight w/ Boston over who’s the best team besides Milwaukee. The “secret” to the Raptors’ success is the fact they rank #2 in the league in defensive efficiency, trailing only Milwaukee. They’ve been able to consistently win despite a myriad of injuries and right now three players, including starter Marc Gasol, are likely to miss tonight’s game. Phoenix is also dealing with several players on the injury front, though their respective statuses appear more promising. Yet this is just the third time all year the Suns have taken the court w/ at least three days rest. Both previous times, the game went Under. 10* Under Suns/Raptors |
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02-20-20 | Loyola Marymount v. St. Mary's OVER 127 | Top | 51-57 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
10* Over Loyola Marymount/St. Mary’s (11:00 ET): St. Mary’s goes for the season sweep of Loyola Marymount tonight and really the task shouldn’t prove too difficult. The Gaels won by 11 last month and LMU has won just two times away from home all season. One was a neutral site game as the Lions’ record in “true” road games is 1-8 SU. St. Mary’s is 4-0 SU/ATS the L4 head to head meetings. Still laying this many points is not something I have much interest in. Instead, let’s look at the total. It’s a pretty low number here and I’m not exactly sure why. The Over is 5-1 for St. Mary’s this season when the total is 120 to 129.5 and this team is 13th in the country in offensive efficiency. Five of the last six St. Mary’s games have gone Over, most of them with higher O/U lines than this one. Their home games average 137.5 PPG, which is well above tonight’s total. The first meeting vs. LMU was a 73-62 final where the Gaels shot 56% from the field. Now Loyola Marymount doesn’t exactly score a ton of points. But even if they can get to their season average of 60.3 per game away from home, we should be in good shape here. The Lions did just pull an upset over the weekend, holding Santa Clara to 59 pts in what was their first “true” road win of the season. But you shouldn’t look for that kind of defensive effort here against St. Mary’s. The good news is St. Mary’s ranks outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. From LMU’s perspective, the number is low as the Over is 36-17 the L53 times the total has fallen into the 120 to 129.5 range. 10* Over Loyola Marymount/St. Mary’s |
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02-20-20 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 233 | Top | 135-105 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Rockets/Warriors (10:35 ET): What was a Western Conference Finals matchup last season will not be repeated in 2020 as Golden State has been decimated by injuries from the very start of this campaign, resulting in them having the worst record in the league going into the All-Star Break (12-43 SU). That would have been considered unthinkable back in October. Meanwhile, the Rockets are underperforming in their own right as they went into the Break 5th in the West. Houston has the clear advantage tonight, but what I’m focusing on is the high total for this game. With their reputation for high-scoring games, the Rockets have seen exactly two-thirds of their games this season have an O/U line of 230 points or higher. The Under is 25-11 in those games, including 15-5 on the road. That’s the situation tonight and they’re up against a team that is averaging only 106.3 PPG. Golden State has just three wins since 12.27. During that time, they’ve been held below 100 pts six different times. Now I’m not guaranteeing that will happen again tonight. But this is one of the highest O/U lines for any Warriors game this season. The Under is 2-0 for them w/ a total of 230 or higher. They are 17-7 Under when on a losing streak of three or more games. Meanwhile, Houston went into the Break on a four-game Under streak. Some recently added pieces may lead to further inefficiency with the offense. 10* Under Rockets/Warriors |
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02-19-20 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota UNDER 150 | Top | 94-83 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Under South Dakota St/North Dakota (8:00 ET): If you recall, we went Under on South Dakota State’s last game and came away with a winning ticket. That game was played Sunday against IPFW and the Jackrabbits held their opponents to just 64 points on 37.5% shooting. The current Summit League leaders are now on a six-game win streak and have held their L5 opponents to an average of 65.6 PPG on 37.5% shooting. During that time, only one team (Denver) has scored more than 64 pts or shot better than 37.5% against them. SDSU hits the road Wednesday to face North Dakota, who like IPFW is a middle of the pack team in this conference. The Fighting Hawks did just record an 86-83 victory at Western Illinois, who is one of the worst teams in the Summit League. Before that win & cover (were -2), ND had covered only one of its previous nine games. The first meeting with South Dakota State did not go well as the Jackrabbits rolled to an 87-66 win thanks to shooting 50% from the field. Fortunately, SDSU does not score nearly as much on the road as they do at home. While North Dakota may have some issues defending, the Under remains 7-1 this year for South Dakota State when the O/U line is 150 to 159.5. Also note that North Dakota’s last game went into overtime. It was 73-73 at the end of regulation, so the final score is a little misleading. The Fighting Hawks shot just 41.3% overall and were a dreadful 5 of 23 from three-point range. What “propped” their point total up was them going 29 of 33 from the FT line. They also shot poorly from 3-pt range in that 1st meeting w/ SDSU, which should repeat itself here as the Jackrabbits are holding opponents to 30% from behind the arc this year. 10* Under South Dakota St/North Dakota |
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02-18-20 | Colorado State v. UNLV UNDER 148 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under Colorado St/UNLV (10:30 ET): From Jan 8 through Feb 1, UNLV went Over in seven straight games. Since then, the Under is 3-1 in their games w/ the lone Over coming in a game that went to overtime (82-79 loss to Nevada). The Rebels aren’t exactly a great shooting team (I watched them in person vs. Nevada) and are making just 30.5% of their 3PA here at the Thomas & Mack Center. Tuesday sees them hosting a Colorado State team that has gone Over in five straight. These teams met not long ago in Fort Collins and CSU hung 95 points on the Runnin’ Rebels in a blowout victory. That was the final game of the 7-game Over streak for UNLV. It was also the 2nd straight game Colorado State scored 90+. They haven’t been able to reach that number since, but their games continue to go Over. These L5 games have seen the Rams average 83.2 PPG on 49.5% shooting. Both numbers are well above their season averages. Playing on the road, I don’t expect Colorado State to have a big offensive night here. They only shot 40.7% in Saturday’s 77-70 win at Wyoming. Similarly, UNLV should not be expected to match the 50% shooting we saw against short-handed New Mexico Saturday. Their previous three games saw them finish below 40% from the field. Colorado State shot 61.5% overall in the first meeting and was 11 of 17 from three-point approach. It’s all but impossible for them to match those numbers here. 8* Under Colorado State/UNLV |
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02-18-20 | Ball State v. Buffalo OVER 148 | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
10* Over Ball State/Buffalo (7:00 ET): Buffalo is a high-scoring team. Their 78.2 PPG average ranks among the top 25 in the country overall and they are averaging more than 80 PPG here at home. However, each of the Bulls’ previous six games have gone Under the total, three of those being among their lowest scoring efforts of the year. But after failing to top 65 pts in B2B games for the 1st time all season, there was an offensive breakthrough last Friday at Toledo. The Bulls won that game 83-65 (as a 2.5-pt dog). Similarly, Ball State had gone Under in eight straight contests heading into this past weekend. But their streak has been snapped. Differing from Buffalo, it was a defensive breakdown that cost the Cardinals their last game as they gave up 77 points in a six-point loss at home to surprising Bowling Green. While that was the most points BSU has allowed in any MAC game this season, it was far from their worst defensive effort. The last time they played on the road, the Cardinals let Western Michigan shoot 61% from the field! So Buffalo should definitely score plenty of points tonight. While the number may be on the rise, this is still one of the lower O/U lines in recent memory for the Bulls. Defensively, they have held three straight opponents below 70 pts and the last two both below 40% shooting. But they’re still giving up 74.6 PPG on the year with opponents shooting 45% in home games. So there’s an opening for Ball St offensively in this one and I look for them to take advantage of it. 10* Over Ball State/Buffalo |
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02-16-20 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota State UNDER 144.5 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
10* Under IPFW-South Dakota St (3:00 ET): Out in the Summit League, South Dakota State is tied with North Dakota State for first place (both teams sporting 10-2 SU records in conf play). The Jackrabbits have won five straight and 10 of their last 11 as they remain perfect on the year at home (14-0 SU). They’ve enjoyed a strong season at the betting window as well, going 17-8 ATS overall including 12-4 when favored. They tend to put a lot of points on the board, especially at home where they average 82.4 PPG. IPFW is facing a pretty tough “ask” from the schedule makers here as they just played at North Dakota State Thursday. They lost, 80-70, but at least got the cash as 12.5-poingt dogs. The loss snapped a two game win streak for the Mastadons, who now have to travel to face the other co-leader in the Summit. The first meeting this season with SD State yielded a 70-61 loss, at home obviously, as IPFW had a dreadful shooting night (32.4% overall) which included them missing 22 of 26 three-point attempts. As you may have guessed, South Dakota State shoots the ball well here at home. They shot the ball well vs. IPFW in that first meeting, making over 52% of their FG attempts. They figure to shoot it pretty well again this afternoon, but let’s not discount the defense the Jackrabbits are playing either. Before the 90-78 win over Denver on Friday, they’d held three straight opponents to under 37% shooting. IPFW generally does NOT shoot the ball well. Neither team ranks in the top 200 in adjusted tempo. 10* Under IPFW/South Dakota St |
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02-15-20 | Virginia v. North Carolina OVER 117.5 | Top | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
10* Over Virginia/North Carolina (8:00 ET): Even though the conference currently has three top eight teams (Louisville, Duke, Florida State), on the whole it’s been a very disappointing season for the ACC. Nowhere is that more evident than here as Virginia faces North Carolina Saturday night. Virginia, who won last year’s NCAA Tournament, is fighting just to get in the Big Dance this year. North Carolina has no shot to make it into March Madness unless it wins the ACC Tournament, which seems unlikely at this point. Virginia is still playing its usual trademark defense as they rank third nationally in efficiency. But the offensive end has been ugly with them ranking 250th in efficiency. Compare that to last year’s title team which ranked 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency (5th in defensive efficiency). Overall, UVA games are only averaging a paltry 108.1 PPG this season, easily the fewest in the entire country. So it should be no shock that the total is really low here. But with UNC as the opponent, it’s too low. The Tar Heels have dropped four in a row including that heartbreaker to Duke last Saturday night. That was followed by a dismal effort at Wake Forest where they lost 74-57 as a 1.5-point favorite. But here in Chapel Hill, they are still averaging 74.6 PPG. Will they reach that average tonight against Virginia? Probably not. But UNC should score enough to get this one Over. My view is that both teams are capable of scoring 60 here. The Over is 5-1 this year in Virginia road games with a total of 119.5 or less. 10* Over Virginia/North Carolina |
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02-14-20 | Sharks v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Sharks/Jets (7:05 ET): It’s been four days since the Sharks last took the ice and suffered a disastrous 6-2 loss to Calgary, a team they’d recently beaten on the road. That was only one of two home games they’ll play in the first 25 days of the month. Prior to that loss, they’d scored six goals of their own in a win at Edmonton as they made it an “Alberta sweep” over the Flames and Oilers. Tonight it’s back to Canada with a visit to Winnipeg, who just had a three game win streak snapped here at home Tuesday as the Rangers came in and beat them 4-1. In that three-game win streak, the Jets piled up 14 goals and appeared to be ascendant in the Central Division standings. But with an eight-point gap now existing between the top three and the rest of the field in the Central, it would appear as if the Wild Card is the only point of entry for the Jets when it comes to the playoffs. Even though they were held to just one goal by the Rangers, Winnipeg did get 44 shots on goal. So don’t be surprised if the kind of goal scoring we saw in the prior three games resumes here. San Jose is a terrible defensive team as they are giving up 3.5 goals per game on the road. Poor play at the defensive end is what caused them to fall into an early 3-0 hole. Tonight marks the 5th time this year that the Sharks have played with at least three days rest. The Over is 3-1 the previous four times. Winnipeg took both head to head meetings in November and those were in San Jose. The Sharks were playing much better at that time. The Jets scored eight goals in those games. I see this being a high-scoring contest. 10* Over Sharks/Jets |
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02-14-20 | Manhattan v. Iona OVER 134 | Top | 57-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Manhattan/Iona (7:00 ET): These MAAC schools just met 12 days ago with Manhattan dealing Iona a humiliating 72-49 blow as 4-point favorites. Since then, Iona has bounced back with two convincing wins on the road: 73-52 over Quinnipiac and 78-54 over Fairfield. Both came as underdogs. The Gaels are certainly better than their 7-12 SU record, but have also proven to be wildly inconsistent. Not sure if they can be trusted as favorites tonight, even though they are back home in a huge revenge spot. Manhattan is also unbeaten since the Iona game having beaten Niagara 77-59 (-6.5) and Quinnipiac (65-63). The latter was on the road while the former was at home. Over the course of what is now a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, the Jaspers have allowed an average of only 57 PPG on 36.6% shooting. But I cannot see them continuing that level of defensive play for much longer, especially on the road. On the flip side, the Jaspers may not be a deadly offensive team, but look for them to take advantage of the fact Iona is allowing opponents to shoot better than 45% from behind the 3-point arc this season. Iona likely won’t shoot as well here as they did in their last game (57.4%!) but they’ll definitely be more proficient than they were in the first meeting with Manhattan when they made only 32.6% of their shots. Iona home games are averaging 147.1 PPG, which is well up from 136.9 PPG on the road. Because of that, I’m throwing down on the Over here as both sides are capable of scoring far more than you think. 10* Over Manhattan/Iona |
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02-14-20 | Buffalo v. Toledo OVER 153 | Top | 83-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
8* Over Buffalo/Toledo (6:30 ET): Buffalo enjoyed a really nice run of success under Nate Oats. During his tenure, the Bulls made it to the NCAA Tournament three times and advanced to the Round of 32 twice. But Oats bolted for “greener pastures” (i.e. Alabama), leaving his former program as basically “just another MAC team.” While still one of the better teams in the conference, UB can no longer count on dominating night after night. They come into tonight’s game having lost 3 of 5, leaving them at 15-9 SU on the year. I would rate Toledo fairly comparably to Buffalo so the line tonight doesn’t surprise me. Toledo has a losing record (12-13 SU) and has not done well against the spread this season as they are just 2-10-1 ATS the L13 games. But earlier this week, the Rockets were able to put an end to five-game SU losing streak by beating Miami (OH) 65-57. They held the RedHawks to 36.2% shooting, which is abnormally good defensive performance for them. The same statement could be made for Buffalo in their last game (which was last Friday) as they held Central Michigan to 35.7% shooting in a 65-60 win. Buffalo’s last five games have all stayed Under, the last two by huge margins. But by playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the entire country, this team is due for an offensive resurgence. They still average 78.0 PPG on the year. Toledo is not a good defensive team as they rank a woeful 258th nationally in defensive efficiency. Expect this to be a high-scoring game. 8* Over Buffalo/Toledo |
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02-12-20 | Nevada v. UNLV UNDER 149.5 | Top | 82-79 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* Under Nevada/UNLV (10:00 ET): I’ll be taking in this game in person! That’s right, I plan on being at the Thomas & Mack Center this evening as UNLV hosts in-state rival Nevada. Like everyone else in the Mountain West, these teams find themselves staring up at undefeated San Diego State. Both have five losses in conference play, which ties them for second. Nevada won the first meeting 86-72 in Reno as they were four-point favorites. But you should look for the Wolf Pack’s scoring to drop off tonight. UNLV has not shot well recently, making less than 40% of its FG attempts over the L5 games. That’s helped put an end to what was a seven-game Over streak for the Runnin’ Rebels. The last two games have both gone Under as they’ve scored just 54 and 68 points. The 68 was enough to get by Fresno State at home over the weekend and the Rebels have been pretty good at the defensive end here, giving up just 65.9 PPG. So, again, Nevada isn’t going to be scoring anywhere close to the 86 pts they had in the 1st meeting. I know the Wolf Pack are coming off a couple of high-scoring wins. They put 88 on the board against Air Force and 95 against San Jose State. But again, those were home games, not to mention against two of the worst teams in the league. Nevada averages 81.8 PPG in Reno but just 70.1 on the road. Not to beat a dead horse, but that’s the key here. If the Wolf Pack are to sweep the season series, it will be because they are holding conference opponents to 40.7% shooting this year. 10* Under Nevada/UNLV |
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02-11-20 | Utah State v. Colorado State UNDER 144 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Utah St/Colorado St (9:30 ET): Utah State is 19-7 SU but it’s been a disappointing season. They’ve had to sit back and watch Mt West rival San Diego State explode on the national scene as the only unbeaten team left in College Basketball. They’ve already lost twice to the Aztecs, so USU’s path to the Big Dance probably goes through the conference tourney. The Aggies have won two straight, but both wins were at home. It remains to be seen if they can do it on the road where they are 1-4 SU in conference play. Colorado State is on a three-game win streak and they have scored 80 or more in every victory. All three games went Over, obviously something that caught our eye. The Rams are a team that can definitely score and it’s not just a recent trend. They average 76.5 PPG for the year and that number jumps to almost 80 PPG here in Fort Collins. They did not have a good night at the offensive end when they visited Utah State last month, scoring only 61 points on 37.3% shooting. It goes without saying they should be better tonight. Utah State shot the lights out in that game, making 59% of their FG attempts. Clearly, it’s going to be very difficult to replicate that kind of proficiency here. But the big key is at the other end. The number of points the Aggies are allowing on the road vs. at home is quite the split, especially when factoring in only conference games. Take away the Wyoming game and the Aggies have allowed at least 70 in every MWC road game and 79 or more in three of the four. 10* Over Utah St/Colorado St |
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02-11-20 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 221 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under Spurs/Thunder (8:05 ET): The “Rodeo Road Trip” is something the Spurs have been dealing with for decades. But this year’s is going as poorly as any in history. They’ve lost the first five games and in doing so they have allowed an average of 122.2 PPG. Last night was a 127-120 loss in Denver, which was actually the closest the Spurs have been in any game on this trip since the first one against the Clippers. Tonight they are in OKC to face the surprising Thunder, who have already gone over their projected season win total of 31.5. The Thunder have won 9 of their last 11 games. But one of those two losses came Sunday, here at home vs. Boston. They lost 112-111 but did cover the 1.5-point spread. That’s a very good (and hot!) Celtics team, so there’s no reason for OKC to hang its collective head in shame. What’s interesting is that the 112 pts allowed were the most in any game since a win over Orlando on 1.22. They’ve been doing a lot better than the Spurs recently, giving up just 104.6 PPG in their L5 contests. Despite the Spurs’ defensive deficiencies, I like this one to go Under. The teams met last month in San Antonio and the Thunder prevailed 109-103. That game had a total of 217.0. The Spurs shot 41.9% from three-point range in that game, something they almost certainly won’t repeat tonight. With the Thunder, it’s the number that’s key. In games with a total of 220 or higher, the Under is 16-3 for them this season. That includes 9-2 at home. 10* Under Spurs/Thunder |
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02-11-20 | Red Wings v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Red Wings/Sabres (7:05 ET): These teams just met five days ago and the Red Wings skated away w/ 4-3 victory as +190 ML dogs. They are off an even more impressive win, as a +290 ML dog, at home vs. Boston. But those are the only two wins for the Wings going back to Jan 10. This is a team that has had MANY long losing skids this season (FOUR of six or more). As a result, they are clearly the worst team in the league (32 points, -95 goal differential) and not worth backing on any kind of semi-regular basis. Buffalo isn’t exactly having a great year either. It started well, just as last year did, but the Sabres are just 15-22-7 SU their L44 games. I already mentioned the loss to Detroit five weeks ago. Well, they took another loss at home on Sunday, this one coming by a 3-2 score against Anaheim. They’ve lost six of eight overall with the only win in regulation coming at MSG vs. the Rangers. As a result, the club is barely visible in the playoff chase. They’re currently 13 points back of the Wild Card. A big reason why Detroit has such an atrocious YTD goal differential is that they have given up the most goals in the league (213). That works out to an average of 3.7 allowed per game. As you might imagine, it only gets worse on the road where the average jumps to 4.1 gpg allowed. That game five days ago went Over and so should this one. Buffalo hung five goals on Detroit when they met in January. They are 6-1 Over on Tuesday nights. 10* Over Red Wings/Sabres |
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02-10-20 | Florida State v. Duke UNDER 148.5 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under FSU/Duke (7:00 ET): Duke survived a huge scare Saturday as they rallied to defeat rival North Carolina in overtime, 98-96. Down 13 with just 4 ½ minutes to go in regulation and five with 20 seconds left, the Blue Devils somehow forced overtime and then won at the buzzer. Thus, they’ve five in a row overall, the last three of which all came on the road. It’s the first time Duke swept a three-game road trip in over 40 years! This is a rare situation where a showdown w/ a fellow Top 10 opponent might actually be a letdown spot. For the second straight week, Florida State plays on Big Monday. Last week, they faced North Carolina and won a low-scoring affair 65-59 (were 8 pt chalk). The Seminoles followed that up by crushing Miami 99-81, making it three straight wins as well as 13 wins in the last 14 games. Both teams come into tonight at 20-3 SU overall and 10-2 SU in ACC play. It’s obviously a big edge for Duke getting the game in Durham, although FSU did win at L’ville earlier in the year. Both sides have been going Over a lot recently, but given the respective situations, I look for a different kind of game tonight. Duke is 7-1 Over its last eight games while Florida State is 7-2 Over its last nine. While tonight’s O/U line is right in line with what we’re accustomed to seeing for both teams, take note that FSU is off its best shooting night in over a month and it came against the last place team in the conference. Duke’s previous scoring effort was obviously aided by OT. We’re looking at two Top 20 teams in terms of defensive efficiency here. FSU has held ACC opponents below 40% shooting so far while Duke isn’t far behind that number here at home. 10* Under FSU/Duke |
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02-08-20 | Oregon v. Oregon State OVER 139.5 | Top | 53-63 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Oregon/Oregon State (10:30 ET): The “Civil War” may not mean as much on the basketball court (compared to the football field), but spirits should be high tonight in Corvallis as Oregon State is having one of its better seasons in a long time. Of course, Oregon has developed into a mainstay atop the Pac 12 and the Ducks come into Saturday as the highest ranked team in the conference and tied for first place with Colorado. These teams are a combined 30-15 Over this season and I look for a high-scoring game. Oregon is off a loss, but that was to a Stanford team that is quietly one of the best in the country at the defensive end. The Cardinal rank 5th nationally in defensive efficiency (look out for them in the Tournament?) and held the Ducks well below their scoring average on Thursday night. The 70-60 final was emblematic of a Stanford-type game, not an Oregon one, as the Ducks are 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, but 94th in defensive efficiency. It’s a good thing then that they aren’t facing Stanford tonight. Oregon State plays similar to Oregon. The Beavers are 26th in offensive efficiency, but a horrendous 199th in defensive efficiency. This all but guarantees a bounce back game at the offensive end for the Ducks, who come in averaging 76.8 points per game. Oregon State has won just one of its last six games, leaving them at 13-9 SU, but as I said earlier this is one of the better teams coming out of Corvallis in many years. They shoot 48.2% at home. The Over is 5-0 when the Beavers are the underdog. 10* Over Oregon/Oregon State |