Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-11-21 | Pacers v. Kings UNDER 227 | Top | 122-127 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
10* Under Pacers/Kings (10:05 ET): Indiana is off a home loss to Phoenix, 125-117, on Saturday night. It was just the third loss this season for the Pacers, who are in their usual position of “second tier” in the Eastern Conference. They do have one of the better point differentials in the East and also sport a better net efficiency rating than 7-1 Philadelphia. Coming off a loss, the Pacers have to be “licking their chops” as they start a five-game West Coast swing in Sacramento against a Kings team that’s lost five of six. Sacramento’s most recent loss was an ugly one as they fell 125-99 at home to Portland. That makes it five ATS losses in a row and B2B 20+ point defeats at home. They also lost here to Toronto on Friday, giving up 144 points in the process. This is a very bad defensive team as it has allowed 124+ points in four straight games while dropping to dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. Despite that, I expect tonight’s game to stay Under the total. The Kings’ defensive numbers almost HAVE to improve and the Pacers will also be looking to improve on that end after giving up 125 to Phoenix. This will be the highest O/U to date for any Indiana game. They are 2-0 Under this season after allowing 115+ points last game. Meanwhile, the Under is 13-6 for the Kings following a double digit defeat at home. That trend held in the Portland game. This number simply opened way too high. 10* Under Pacers/Kings |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 76 | Top | 24-52 | Push | 0 | 201 h 2 m | Show |
10* Under Ohio State/Alabama (8:00 ET): Both Ohio State and Alabama won their semifinal games in impressive fashion. Of course that was expected from the #1 ranked Crimson Tide, who were 19.5-point favorites, a historic spread for a game of that magnitude. That they “only” won 31-14 obviously did not appease all, thanks to a backdoor Notre Dame touchdown. Conversely, Ohio State’s 49-28 schellacking of Clemson came as a surprise, even to someone like me who played the Buckeyes as a 7.5-point underdog. That this spread - vs. a team superior to Clemson - is now pretty similar isn’t that surprising as obviously an adjustment had to be made based on OSU’s incredible semi final effort. By now, you certainly have heard that this is the highest O/U line for any National Championship Game in the BCS or College Football Playoff era. Again, that had to be expected given what we saw in the semis, particularly the Ohio State game. I, for one, was quite happy to hear the news as “Under” was my immediate reaction when seeing this number. You have to remember that the Clemson defense Ohio State torched on New Year’s Night was missing its top DB for the 1st half and its best player for the majority of the game, both due to targeting. Ohio State games, for the most part, have been really high scoring this year. Only the Big 10 Championship (vs. Northwestern) saw fewer than 63 total points scored. But none have seen more than 77 scored. I would be quite surprised if the Buckeyes hit their season average of 43.4 PPG here vs. Alabama. In the same vein, I don’t think the Crimson Tide will hit their season average of 48.2 PPG either. Only two Bama games all season - Ole Miss and the SEC Championship vs. Florida - would have gone Over this total. Those two opponents were two of the most “all offense, no defense” teams in the Power 5 this season, certainly from the SEC. This should close as the highest O/U line for either team all season. 10* Under Ohio State/Alabama |
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01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints UNDER 47.5 | Top | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Bears/Saints (4:40 ET): For four consecutive weeks, Chicago put up 30+ points (something no Bears team had done since the 1960’s) with Mitch Trubisky at the helm. But then came last week’s disappointing effort vs. the Packers where they were held to just 16. Thanks to Arizona also losing, the Bears were able to “back in” to the playoffs as the 7-seed in the NFC, but I don’t think I’m exaggerating here when I call this the weakest team in the field (yes, even weaker than Washington). They face a VERY tall order in the Wild Card Round, having to travel to the Mercedes Benz Superdome to face the Saints. When looking at that run of 30+ point games, it’s very important to consider just WHO the Bears faced: Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville. None of those are playoff teams and the defenses were among the worst in the league. Facing a good defense for the 1st time in a month, the Bears got held to not just 16 points, but only 4.8 yards per play. The Saints defense that Trubisky and company will face this week is one of the league’s best as it ranks top five in both scoring and yards allowed. Chicago is 1-6 SU vs. winning teams this season, averaging just 16 PPG. So last week, sadly, was nothing new. The Saints offense is expected to get both RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas back, which sounds exciting. But the Bears’ run defense is tops in the league in terms of success rate and Kamara may not be operating at full strength after missing a week due to quarantine. While New Orleans is still thought of as this “offensive machine,” they operate at a very slow pace (29th in time between plays) and I think they know it’s not going to take many points to win here. Their L3 playoff games have all stayed Under. 10* Under Bears/Saints |
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01-07-21 | Montana State v. Northern Colorado OVER 135.5 | Top | 79-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Montana State/Northern Colorado (8:30 ET): Here’s an “off the radar” game that quickly caught my attention. Even though Northern Colorado has gone Under in each of its last five games, I think the total is too low here. This will be the first of two meetings with Montana State over the next three days and tonight is also Montana State’s Big Sky opener. Take the Over. So far, Montana State has been real “feast or famine” on the offensive end of the floor. They have three games with more than 90 points scored and two with under 60 points scored. While two of the three strong efforts came at home against non-DI teams, the Bobcats did manage to score 91 in a season-opening win at UNLV. One area I definitely see improving is the Bobcats’ 43.2% shooting from INSIDE the 3-point line. That number is just awful and HAS to improve. They do shoot pretty well from three-point range (37.5%) so I see no reason why they can’t improve the shooting when closer to the basket. Northern Colorado has failed to reach 70 points in any of its last five games, a stretch which has seen them shoot very poorly as well. Again, you’ve got to expect improvement in that department. The Over is a perfect 4-0 the L4 times Montana State has been an underdog and a perfect 6-0 the L6 times they’ve been off a SU win. They scored 96 points in their previous game, a win over Montana Western on New Year’s Day. 10* Over Montana State/Northern Colorado |
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01-06-21 | Pistons v. Bucks UNDER 225.5 | Top | 115-130 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
10* Under Pistons/Bucks (8:05 ET): These teams just played on Monday. The Bucks won that game 125-115, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 43 points. The team shot a somewhat ridiculous 57% for the game as well. Though Milwaukee still boasts the most efficient offense in the league, it has not been the same dominant start we’ve seen the previous two seasons. They come in at just 4-3, though all three losses were on the road. It should be another win tonight, but it won’t be as high-scoring. Not only did Milwaukee shoot 57% from the floor on Monday, but the teams combined to go 31 of 74 from 3-point range. That almost certainly will NOT be happening again. Detroit is a team I project to finish near the bottom of the league offensively. So far they’ve been a bit better than expected, though they are shooting just 43.4% overall. It’s the defensive issues that must be fixed if they are to remain competitive. Already the Pistons have allowed 120+ points four times, though one of the games went to double overtime. The O/U line for tonight did open a few points higher than the closing number from Monday, so right away there’s a bit of value to be had. The Pistons are 20-8 Under the L3 seasons, on the road, when the total is 220 or higher. Meanwhile, the Under is 11-5 for the Bucks when they are off a SU win. The Bucks have defended quite well at home so far, allowing an overall shooting percentage of 40.5% and a 3-pt % of 29.7. Some familiarity and obvious decreases in shooting percentage should lead to an easy Under here. 10* Under Pistons/Bucks |
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01-04-21 | Kings v. Warriors OVER 231 | Top | 106-137 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
9* Over Kings/Warriors (10:05 ET): Steph Curry went off for a career-high 62 points last night in a 137-122 win against Portland. As a team, the Warriors shot 55% from the floor. Neither Curry nor the team will likely be able to match that kind of offensive production here tonight, but they shouldn’t have to for this matchup with the Kings to still go Over the total. Neither of these teams are very good defensively and with Sacramento likely to bounce back from a poor shooting effort in its last game, look for more points than expected in this one. Curry’s performance was much needed for a Warriors team that has not been all that impressive in the early going. Lost in the virtuoso shooting effort though was the fact last night marked the fifth time in six games that the Dubs allowed at least 122 points. The only opponent they’ve been able to hold under that number was Detroit, who projects to be the worst offensive team in the league this season. The Dubs are currently 26th in defensive efficiency and they are NOT going to fix this issue when playing for a third time in four nights. Sacramento is off its worst shooting game of the season so far as they made only 38.9% in a 102-94 loss to the Rockets on Saturday (just 9 of 28 from three-point range). That was their second straight loss in Houston following an impressive 3-1 start. They’ve gotten to 119 points in half their games. Look for the Kings to regain their shooting touch tonight against the defensively inept Warriors, but also be on the lookout for Curry, who has averaged a stellar 30.3 PPG in his career when coming off a 50+ point effort. 9* Over Kings/Warriors |
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01-04-21 | Wyoming v. Fresno State UNDER 143.5 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
8* Under Wyoming/Fresno State (9:00 ET): Honestly, I sort of think the wrong team may be favored here. Wyoming just won here, 78-74, on Saturday and is now 7-1 on the season. Their only loss came by two points to Texas Southern in the second game of the season. But beating the same opponent on the road twice in three days is a pretty tall order and the Cowboys were pretty lucky to win here the other night. So I’m looking at the Under, something that hasn’t cashed a lot in Wyoming games this season, but will tonight. That lone Wyoming loss saw them blow a 19-point halftime lead in Laramie, so this is a team that probably “should” still be undefeated. The Over is 6-1 their last seven games, but they have not shot the ball all that well nor have they defended that poorly. Their tempo isn’t that fast. They have shot 44% from three-point range in three “true” road games though and that’s a number that’s due to come down. They were 12 of 30 from behind the arc Saturday and also 22 of 26 from the free throw line. Don’t look for them to match those kinds of numbers tonight though. It was just a 33-31 game at halftime when these teams played Saturday before the scoring really picked up in the second half. Fresno State actually shot much better overall than Wyoming, but was undone by a lack of three-point shooting (just 5 of 16) and by going just 15 of 22 from the FT line. There were a LOT of free throws made in the final six minutes Saturday, taking a game which looked like a sure Under (game was 58-57 with 6:43 left) to an Over. FSU is 7-3 Under when playing with revenge for a home loss. 8* Under Wyoming/Fresno State |
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01-03-21 | Granada v. SD Eibar OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
10* Over Granada/Eibar (12:30 ET): Eibar’s 16 matches have been almost comically low-scoring with just 28 combined goals scored. The 12 they’ve scored on their own is tied for the fewest in all of La Liga while the 16 conceded ranks sixth, behind only the top clubs. But here comes Granada to “fix” things. Despite sitting a somewhat surprising 7th in the table, Granada has conceded 23 times, among the very most in the Spanish top flight. Only four sides - including the bottom three - have conceded more goals this season. Yet Granada comes in flashing strong form of late. They’ve won four of their last five across all competitions and have lost just once in the last seven, a 2-0 reverse fixture vs. Real Madrid. Outside of La Liga, they’ve progressed to the knockout stage of the Europa League where they’ll next be taking on Napoli. Here on the domestic front, they are coming off a 2-1 win over Valencia last week. A good number of players will be absent for this clash, a tough break considering Granada is a win away from pulling level with 4th place Sevilla. This is a very low total, one that caught my eye. I know what we’ve seen from Eibar thus far, but getting three combined goals doesn’t seem like it’s asking for much here. Eibar drew Barcelona 1-1 its last time out, a result they’ll gladly take considering they have just three wins this campaign. They are currently just one point clear of the relegation zone entering Sunday. Expect an inspired effort at home where they notch at least a goal. Incredibly, Eibar has scored more than 1 goal only once in their L11 La Liga matches, but it’s also tough to ignore the fact they’d conceded five times in two matches before drawing Barca. Each of the last five head to head matches between these two sides have produced at least three total goals. 10* Over Granada/Eibar |
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01-02-21 | Cavs v. Hawks UNDER 233 | Top | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
10* Under Cavaliers/Hawks (7:35 ET): This will be the second time (this season) that I’m playing the Cavs Under the total. The first was Tuesday’s game against the Knicks. Believe it or not, Cleveland actually came into that game at 3-0. But I warned you about buying into them and sure enough they dropped that game 95-86 (as a 3.5-pt favorite), making for an easy Under (total closed at 216). The Cavs’ predictable downfall then continued on New Year’s Eve with a 119-99 loss at Indiana, their third game in a row to go Under. Many believed that this young Hawks team could surprise in the Eastern Conference this season and so far they’ve proven to be worthy of the “hype.” Last night saw them prevail in Brooklyn, holding the Nets to just 96 points on 40.7% shooting, including 7 of 37 from three-point range. Atlanta is now 4-1 SU with the only loss coming in the first of the two games at Brooklyn and they actually blew a 4Q in that one. Making the record look even more impressive is the fact the Hawks have played only one home game thus far. Hawks’ games have generally been high-scoring thus far, but defensively they have held three of the first five opponents below 41.5% shooting. Offensively, I don’t think they are going to be able to match last night’s blistering 16 of 39 three-point shooting. Cleveland has actually played surprisingly decent defense in the early going (well, not vs. Indiana), posting a top five efficiency rating on that end of the floor. However, in three of their last four games the Cavs have been held to 101 pts or less in regulation. Both of these teams are dealing with multiple injuries in the early part of the season. 10* Under Cavaliers/Hawks |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia UNDER 51 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia (12:00 ET): So five teams finished the NCAAF regular season unbeaten. Two - Alabama and Ohio State - are in the CFP. The other three all hail from the so-called “Group of Five.” Of course, only one of those teams is allowed in the New Year’s Six every year and this time it’s 9-0 Cincinnati. The Bearcats will try and accomplish what Coastal Carolina couldn’t (and maybe San Jose State won’t) and that’s finish the year undefeated, It won’t be easy though as they’re matched up with #9 Georgia, who has looked very good ever since its embarrassing loss to Florida, in the Peach Bowl. Georgia is ranked one spot lower than Cincinnati, but is a TD favorite as of press time. UGA is 3-0 SU since JT Daniels took over as the starting QB and produced its two highest scoring games of the year (49 and 45 pts) during that time. But keep in mind that Daniels and the Dawgs did this against the bottom of the SEC barrel, namely South Carolina, Miss State and Missouri. Cincy brings a formidable defense to Atlanta, one that gives up an average of only 16 PPG. Granted, that was against a weaker schedule than UGA faced, but remember there are lots of offenses from the American that can score in bunches. UCF is the only team that scored more than 24 on the Bearcats’ defense during the regular season. Georgia is no defensive slouch either, giving up just 19.9 PPG. I can say with full confidence that Cincy did not face a SEC-caliber defense this year. The closest was probably Tulsa in the AAC Champ Game and there the Bearcats were held to just 27 points, their lowest in any game besides the one vs. Army. The last time Cincy took on a team this talented, they were shut out 42-0 by Ohio State (last year). The Bearcats are probably hoping that UGA “forgets to bring their motivation” on New Year’s Day. Both teams saw plenty of totals lower than this one during the regular season. The AAC Champ Game total was just 45.0. 8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia |
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12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma UNDER 71.5 | Top | 20-55 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 8 m | Show |
10* Under Florida/Oklahoma (8:00 ET): I think most people consider this year’s Cotton Bowl - between #6 Oklahoma and #7 Florida - to be the “best” matchup outside of the CFP. There’s a lot going on from a betting perspective. Florida, who is coming off B2B losses, got the bulk of the early money. But the line has since “jumped the fence” and as of press time, OU is now the slight favorite (which my own power ratings agree with). Betting on the total has been lopsided towards the Over, but you’d expect that based on the SEC Championship Game. This is currently the highest O/U line for any remaining bowl game. I personally think the O/U line is too high here. I’m aware that both offenses are averaging 41 PPG and that Florida’s defense was torched for 89 points in the L2 games (52 by Bama). But I don’t see that happening again here. Oklahoma has been held to “just” 27 points in its last two games, the Big 12 Championship vs. Iowa State and by Baylor. The Sooners have gone Under in three straight and it has been their defense taking away some of the spotlight from the offense down the stretch. Five of the last six Oklahoma opponents have been held to 21 points or less and the season-long numbers would look even better had it not been for a 4OT thriller against Texas. Florida has scored more than 30 points in every game this year, but I don’t see them hitting 40 and that’s key here with the number being so high. TE Kyle Pitts and the two top WRs are all sitting this game out, which will greatly affect the passing game. Yet, save for the SEC Championship Game, this is the highest O/U line for any Gators’ game this season. I’m not sure what happened in those L2 games as the defense really seemed to be turning a corner down the stretch (three straight games holding opponents below 20 points). It is worth noting Oklahoma’s offensive numbers are DOWN from LY. 10* Under Florida/Oklahoma |
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12-29-20 | Ole Miss v. Alabama OVER 146 | Top | 64-82 | Push | 0 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
10* Over Ole Miss/Alabama (9:00 ET): All six Ole Miss games have stayed Under this year, which is quite the streak to start a season. The Rebels are holding the opposition to just 52.3 PPG, but look at who they’ve played: Jackson State, UNC Wilmington, Central Arkansas, Middle Tenn, Tenn-Martin to name a few. Tonight they head to Tuscaloosa to face an Alabama team that’s averaging almost 80 PPG. Look for this to be the first time Ole Miss goes Over the total this season. The Crimson Tide’s scoring average would be even better if not for a “clunker” against Clemson on December 12th where they finished with just 56 points. They’ve gone over 80 in all five wins and they are slight favorites here. They haven’t played since last Tuesday, which was an 85-69 win over East Tenn State. While that was a game they were expected to win by DD, they’ve also put up 80+ against the likes of Furman (who is very good), UNLV and Providence. On the flip side, the Tide have given up 71+ points five times already. Ole Miss scored a season-high 90 points in their most recent game, which was last Tuesday vs. Tenn Martin. Still the game didn’t go Over as they allowed just 43 points against a very bad team. Something that sticks out to me is that neither of these SEC teams have shot the ball very well from three-point range thus far. Ole Miss is down at 28.8% while Bama is at 30.2%. Look for that to change tonight. In terms of adjusted tempo, Alabama is in the top 30 nationally. They are 23-13 Over in all home games the L3 seasons. 10* Over Ole Miss/Alabama |
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12-29-20 | Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 217 | Top | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10* Under Knicks/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): The Cavs are a shocking 3-0 with all three victories coming as underdogs. But when you consider they were dogs to the likes of Charlotte (at home!) and Detroit, that record isn’t as impressive as it looks. I will give them credit for the win Sunday as they buried Philadelphia 118-94. That was by far their best defensive effort of the season, at least in terms of points allowed, though they did hold the Pistons to an even lower shooting percentage (40.8) the night prior. The only reason that game ended up being so high scoring (128-119) is because it went to double overtime. The relatively easy early-season schedule for the Cavs will continue Tuesday as they host the Knicks. Cleveland is favored, so there’s a real legit shot they start the season 4-0! But New York is coming off a shocking 20-point win over Milwaukee where it scored 130 points! The odds of NY scoring that many again here range from slim to none. They are 12-4 Under coming off a game where they scored 130+ points and 18-6 Under coming off a SU win as a dog. While they shot 54.1% against the Bucks, they were at just 38.6% the game before (vs. Philadelphia) and finished with only 89 points. They scored only 107 points in the opener, a loss to Indiana. Both these teams may be coming off impressive victories, but I still anticipate they’ll each finish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings this year. As for who wins tonight, that’s anyone’s guess, but I like the game to finish Under the total. We’ve got the Knicks’ trends listed above, plus it’s a virtual lock that the Cavs’ offensive production from the first three games (122.3 PPG!) takes a downturn. The Under is 17-5 in the Cavs’ last 22 games following a double digit win. 10* Under Knicks/Cavaliers |
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12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 46.5 | Top | 38-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
8* Over Bills/Patriots (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. Here I am targeting the latter streak as the Patriots should be better offensively now that they’ve returned home (where they haven’t played in a month). The last two games saw them run into two of the better defenses in the league (Rams, Dolphins), both on the road, and they had little to no success. Buffalo is giving up 25.4 PPG on the road this season. You’ll have to check out my 10* Game of the Week (play on the side) for a bunch of historical info on this spread. Bottom line: it’s not often that Buffalo is favored against New England, though this is the 2nd time this year it has happened. It’s even more rare to find them favored in Foxboro as they go for the 1st season sweep of the Patriots this century. New England hasn’t been a home dog of this magnitude since Tom Brady was a rookie. They haven’t been a division dog of 7 or more since that same 2001 season. They haven’t gotten this many points from any Buffalo team since Jim Kelly was playing QB in 1993. I that first meeting this season, Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone as the Patriots were looking to tie/go ahead. They lost 24-21 as a 4-point dog. The total for that game was only 41, so it did go Over. You may find it curious that the total is higher for the rematch as NE has gone Under in six straight. But this time around the Patriots defense won’t have former Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, who is out for the year with a knee injury. The Buffalo offense also seems to be better now than it was back on Nov 1, the date of the first meeting. They’ve scored at least 26 points in every game since. 8* Over Bills/Patriots |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers UNDER 54 | Top | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Under Titans/Packers (8:20 ET): Two of the NFL’s more prolific offensive teams meet Sunday night at Lambeau Field where snow and wind are expected to be factors. Thus, I’m leaning towards this being a lower scoring game than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Yes, we all know what an “Over machine” Tennessee has been since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (19-4-1 O/U record!). But Green Bay has gone Under each of the last three weeks and this is a big number for such a high profile game. Given the weather conditions, expect to see a lot of Derrick Henry when the Titans have the ball. Of course, that figured to be the case anyway. But with the weather potentially being such a factor, the Titans prolific passing attack may be kept in check. The Packers’ defense ability to stop the run has been an issue for a while now, but they’ve gotten better as the season has worn on. I’m sure that slowing down Henry has been the main focus of practice all week long. The L3 games have seen GB allow an average of just 18.7 points and 311.7 yards. Over the L7 games, only one opponent (Colts) has scored more than 25 vs. the Pack. Tennessee has scored 30+ points in five straight games as they look to go to the playoffs for a second straight season. However, the L2 weeks have seen them benefit from facing weak opponents (Detroit, Jacksonville). Expect more resistance from a Packers team that can clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win tonight. The Titans’ Over percentage is second highest in the league (behind only Las Vegas - ugh), but I’m willing to buck that trend here given the gravity of the game and likely weather conditions. 8* Under Titans/Packers |
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12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 47 | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -120 | 125 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:25 ET): These teams met back in Week 10 with the Rams emerging victorious by a score of 23-16. They were 3.5-point favorites at home. The stakes are much higher for this rematch as Seattle, not the Rams, can wrap up the NFC West with a win. LA is off a very embarrassing loss last week as they became the first team to fall to the Jets in 2020, doing so 23-20 as a 17-point home favorite. Obviously, they should come eager to atone for such an unthinkable result. But beating Russell Wilson in Seattle isn’t easy as they scored 40 points the last time they played here - against the Jets! That this game takes place up in the Pacific Northwest should have a profound effect on your analysis of the total. The Rams are 7-0 Under at home this season and they are the only team in the league yet to have a single home game go Over. But they are 4-3 Over on the road as the offense averages 28.1 PPG, up a full TD from what they average at home. Similarly, the defensive numbers go up on the road. The Rams allow just 14.4 PPG at home, but 24.0 on the road, a big-time increase. So while Rams’ home games average just 35.5 PPG, their road games are at 52.1. Again that’s a severe difference. Seattle has had two of its three lowest-scoring games in the past three weeks. Ironically, both games were against NFC East teams. But in between they did have the 40-point game vs. the Jets here at home. They are averaging 31.0 PPG at home for the year. Going into the 1st meeting with the Rams, the Seahawks had gone Over in six of their first eight games. Now they’ve gone Under in six straight. I say it's time for that streak to end. The O/U line for the first meeting closed at 53.5, a full TD higher than what it is here! Over the L3 weeks, the Seahawks defense has gotten to face three bottom five offenses. Not here. 10* Over Rams/Seahawks |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 48 | Top | 26-25 | Loss | -108 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
9* Under Dolphins/Raiders (8:15 ET): These teams are seemingly headed in opposite directions. I played Miami last week as they beat the Patriots 22-12, their 8th SU win in the L10 games (they’ve also gone 9-1 ATS in that stretch). Las Vegas has lost four of five, the only win coming against the then-winless Jets on a last second “Hail Mary.” I went against the Raiders last Thursday when they fell in overtime to the Chargers. Normally, I might stick with the Dolphins’ bandwagon, but this will be LV’s third straight game at home and I don’t like how the line “jumped the fence” early in the week. It’s the total that’s catching my eye now. What’s interesting about playing this total is that each of the Raiders’ last seven games have seen at least 49 total points scored and five of those seven have seen at least 57 total points scored. But Miami has seen 33 or LESS total points scored in four of its last five games (exception was vs. KC). So something will have to give. Considering Marcus Mariota could start for Las Vegas, I think this will be more of a “Miami-type game.” Even if Derek Carr is able to play, you’d have to be concerned about his injured groin facing one of the best defenses in the league. Over their last 10 games, Miami has allowed more than 21 points to only two opponents - the Chiefs and Cardinals. This Dolphins’ defense has hit the “trifecta,” ranking 1st in the league in scoring (18.4 PPG allowed), takeaways (26) & 3rd down percentage (32.5%). Not only do the Raiders have an injured starting QB, but RB Josh Jacobs has averaged just 3.0 YPC since Week 10. But giving the home team a sliver of hope is the fact Miami has scored 22 points or less in four of its last five games. Tua Tagovailoa is still a rookie QB playing on the road. So look for this game to snap a 6-0 Over run in head to head meetings between these teams. 9* Under Dolphins/Raiders |
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12-26-20 | Oakland v. Detroit UNDER 154.5 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
10* Under Oakland/Detroit (4:00 ET): Both of these Horizon League squads are pretty bad defensively, but they should get a much welcome “reprieve” by facing each other. I say that because - as bad as both Oakland and Detroit may be defensively, they seem to even worse shooting the ball. Oakland, who is an ugly 0-9 SU, has shot just 35.4% from the floor so far and 29.0% from three-point range. Yet all but one of their games (the 2nd one) has gone Over the total! That streak should end Saturday afternoon. Detroit is no better when it comes to shooting the basketball. They are making only 38.5% of their FG attempts so far, including an unsightly 28.9% from 3-point range. The Titans just allowed an average of 89 PPG in a pair of home losses to Wright State. Both of those games went Over the total. Again though, their defense is going to get a major break here in facing one of the worst teams in the entire country. The most points Detroit has scored in a game this season is 76 and this is the highest O/U line for any game to date. Same for Oakland, whose previous high O/U line was 148.5 against Michigan State. They played Detroit twice last season and while both of those games went Over, the final point totals were 141 and 147, both of which would be UNDERS in this scenario. Oddsmakers have adjusted too much in the wake of all the poor defensive efforts these teams have delivered in the early part of the season. Again, neither is shooting the ball well and that means I am going Under on a very high total. 10* Under Oakland/Detroit |
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12-26-20 | Chelsea v. Arsenal OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 65 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Chelsea/Arsenal (12:30 ET): Chelsea heads into matchweek 15 knowing that three points could get them right back in the top four of the Premier League table. The Blues actually own the EPL’s second best goal differential this season (+15) and I don’t think there’s much argument that they have been one of the better clubs. Monday’s convincing 3-0 win over West Ham put to rest a two-game losing streak and I don’t think they’re going to have much difficulty scoring here against a struggling Arsenal side. Having collected just 14 points from their 14 matches, Arsenal is off to its worst Premier League start in 46 years. They currently sit 15th in the table and are only four points clear of the relegation zone. Their last win came all the way back on November 1st and since then it’s been five losses and two draws on the domestic front. Not even “home cooking” has done them much good as they’ve collected just seven points from seven matches here at Emirates Stadium, the fifth worst home record of any Premier League side. On average, Arsenal’s matches have been the lowest-scoring in the EPL this season with just 30 combined goals scored. Only Burnley and hideous Sheffield United have notched a fewer number of goals than the Gunners’ 12. But here comes Chelsea to save the day as the Blues are #2 in the league in scoring (29 goals), trailing only Liverpool. Arsenal did just concede four times to Man City Tuesday as they exited the EFL Cup, so maybe that’s a sign of things to come. Each of the last four fixtures between these two sides have produced at least three goals. Two Chelsea defenders are doubtful. 10* Over Chelsea/Arsenal |
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12-25-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 224 | Top | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
10* Over Clippers/Nuggets (10:35 ET): Think revenge might be on the Clippers’ mind here? Back in September, they were shockingly eliminated from the Western Conference semifinals - in 7 games - by the Nuggets. That series saw the Clips blow a 3-1 series advantage. It was one of the more improbable playoff runs as Denver had also come back from a 3-1 series deficit to oust Utah in the first round. I have the Nuggets regressing (in terms of wins & losses) this season, so I was not shocked that they dropped their opening game. I certainly considered the Clippers in this spot, given the revenge angle. But I don’t like the idea of laying points, no matter how few, in Denver. The Clippers are also coming off an emotional win over the Lakers in the opener. I took the Over in that game, which panned out, as the 116-109 final snuck Over the closing number of 219.5. It was a really strong effort from the Clips, who raced out to a 39-19 lead after the 1st quarter. As much as they’d like to “stick it” to Denver here, not sure they can replicate that first game performance - on both ends. No game in that 7-game Western Conference semifinal series went Over. There were five Unders and two pushes. But not only did the Clippers’ 1st game go Over, so did the Nuggets’. Overtime obviously helped with the Denver game (was a 124-122 final), but it was also 112-112 at the end of regulation with Sacramento. Expect the Nuggets to shoot better from three-point range than they did vs. the Kings when they connected on only 8 of 27 attempts. Both of these teams can score in bunches and WILL on Christmas night. 10* Over Clippers/Nuggets |
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12-22-20 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 223 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
10* Over Clippers/Lakers (10:05 ET): Doesn’t it feel like the NBA season just ended two months ago? Well, that’s because it DID just end two months ago, with the Lakers taking care of the Heat in the Finals. It will be VERY interesting to see how some of these teams handle the unprecedented short turnaround between seasons. The NBA Champs get the least time off as they open the season Tuesday night against a Clippers team still smarting from a shocking defeat at the hands of Denver in the Conference semis. The Lakers arguably got BETTER in the offseason, which sounds scary. Of course, you’ve still got LeBron James and Anthony Davis leading the way. But the big key now is the supporting cast is a whole lot better. You’ve got the likes of Marc Gasol, Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and Talen Horton-Tucker backing up the two superstars now. Speaking of superstars, the Clippers return their pair - Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. They lost Harrell to the Lakers, but replaced him with Serge Ibaka. The biggest change for the Clips is that Ty Lue replaced Doc Rivers as HC. They will again be a top 2-3 team in the West. The two LA teams met four times last season and - surprisingly - all four games stayed Under the total. I’m predicting a different outcome this time as the Lakers seem poised to be a lot more dynamic this year when James and Davis exit the court. I hardly expect “lockdown defense” in the first game of the season. The Clippers averaged 116 PPG LY while the Lakers weren’t far behind at 113.3. Strangely, neither side hit their season average in any of the four meetings LY. Things will be different this time. 10* Over Clippers/Lakers |
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12-22-20 | Purdue v. Iowa UNDER 156 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Purdue/Iowa (9:00 ET): Iowa is 7-0 Over this season and 3-0 Over its L3 games vs. Purdue. So this is most definitely a “contrarian” type play Tuesday as we look to buck those aforementioned trends. One more thing - Iowa comes in averaging an astonishing 98.7 PPG. They just suffered their 1st loss of the season, 99-88 to Gonzaga on Saturday. But in the face of all that info, I’m still going Under here in the Big 10 opener as there’s simply no way those types of numbers can be sustained. The 88 points scored in the Gonzaga loss were actually the FEWEST by Iowa in a game this season! But let’s keep in mind that they’ve been able to “run up the score” against some bad teams thus far. Defensively, the Hawkeyes are far from “elite,” but they are holding opponents to just 68.5 PPG on 38.9% shooting here in Iowa City. Again, they’ve hosted some weak teams, but they’re doing a solid job at defending the three-point line plus opponents are shooting just 40.8% overall for the season, even after Gonzaga went 36 of 70. To put Iowa’s 7-0 Over run to start the season in its proper perspective, note there are only two other teams in the country that are 5-0 Over or “better.” Purdue comes in off an 88-78 win over Notre Dame, so they’ve done some scoring too, but I just can’t see it continuing like this. The Boilermakers are 3-0 Under as road dogs of 6.5 to 9 points the previous two seasons. Iowa has some serious revenge to exact here as they’ve lost four straight times to Purdue. They’ll be looking to play some defense. 10* Under Purdue/Iowa |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Steelers/Bengals (8:15 ET): Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite Monday night despite B2B losses, both of which came in primetime games. But let’s not be too quick to forget this team was 11-0 SU before having to endure three professional football games in a 12-day span. That, more than anything else, is what “caught up to them” and caused them to drop two in a row. Tonight has all the makings of a “get well” game for the Black & Gold, especially on the offensive side of the ball as the Bengals defense they face tonight just allowed a 122.6 passer rating to backup QB Andy Dalton. Dallas, a bad team, scored 30 in that game. Normally, I’d be “all over” a double digit dog in primetime, but the Bengals seem a bit “untouchable” right now, especially with Ryan Finley now set to start at QB. Finley is the third different starting QB for the Bengals in the last five games. Joe Burrow’s injury effectively ended this team’s season as it’s been all downhill ever since. Cincinnati has lost five in a row, a streak that started against the Steelers. Burrow was hurt the following week and the Bengals have managed only three offensive touchdowns since. The defense had been okay, but then came the aforementioned effort last week vs. Dallas, a sign this game has the potential to get pretty ugly. This is one of the lowest totals you’ll see the entire NFL season. When the teams met five weeks ago, the O/U line was 45 and the game went Over as Pittsburgh won 36-10. A similar final score could be on tap tonight. The Bengals’ offense actually did move the ball a bit last week, only to fumble it away on each of the opening three possessions. But tonight is all about the Steelers’ offense getting back on track. As we saw in the 1st meeting, they could possibly come close to sending this one Over themselves. Cincy will give enough help to get it past the “finish line” as both teams end 4-game Under streaks. The Over is 5-0 in the Bengals’ L5 home games vs. a team w/ a winning road record. 10* Over Steelers/Bengals |
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12-21-20 | St. Joe's v. Tennessee UNDER 147 | Top | 66-102 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
8* Under St. Josephs/Tennessee (6:00 ET): St. Joe’s has played a murderous schedule thus far and things get no easier here as they pay a visit to Knoxville to face #10 Tennessee. So far, the Hawks have faced Auburn, Kansas and Villanova. Throw in a 81-77 loss to Drexel and it’s an 0-4 SU start with every game going Over the total. They’ve given up 81 points or more in every game. Do note, however, that one of the games (season opener vs. Auburn) did go to overtime. Tennessee hasn’t given up more than 56 in any of its four games and thus it’s been a pretty easy 4-0 start for them. They’d actually gone Under in three straight to start the season before shooting a blistering 58.3% from the floor against Tennessee Tech over the weekend, including 47.4% from three-point range. Six players were in double figures as the team produced its 8th largest MOV (54 points) in program history. They scored 103 points, which is something you just don’t see much in College Hoops. Of course, you have to consider the opponent. With UT not having allowed more than 56 points in any game so far, I have to think this is where St. Joe’s Over streak comes to an end. Assuming we get the “usual brand” of Volunteer defense, that would require them also scoring 90+ (to send this one Over) and I just don’t see that happening. Playing a second game in four days, it’s going to be next to impossible to replicate the shooting we saw vs. Tenn Tech. None of the Vols’ first three games saw more than 121 total pts scored and this is easily the highest O/U line for any of their games to date. St. Joe’s hasn’t shot well this season and the Under is 7-1 when they face a SEC team. The Under is also on a 25-12 run here in Knoxville and the Vols are allowing just 32.9% shooting YTD. 8* Under St. Joseph’s/Tennessee |
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12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 41.5 | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -103 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
8* Over Patriots/Dolphins (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams. A lot has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB. Belichick has won 11 straight against rookie QBs, but don’t be surprised when the Dolphins have far more success on the offensive side of the ball here than they did in that first meeting. They put up 27 points last week vs. Kansas City. Of course, they also gave up 33 (despite forcing four turnovers). The Patriots figure to run the ball a lot here as they were successful doing so (217 yards) back in Week 1. This is a really low O/U and I see the Pats’ 5-game Under run coming to an end. 8* Over Patriots/Dolphins |
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12-19-20 | Geoffrey Neal v. Stephen Thompson UNDER 4.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 76 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Neal/Thompson (9:15 ET): The main event of this Saturday’s UFC card is a welterweight bout (170 lbs), scheduled for five rounds, between contenders Geoff Neal and Stephen Thompson. Even though Neal is lower ranked within the division (#11 as opposed to #5 for Thompson), he checks in as the slight favorite as of press time (Thursday afternoon). In taking the Under, I’m obviously calling for a finish in this fight and because it’s a five-round affair (as opposed to three), I like those odds. Neal is 5-0 in the UFC and 13-2 overall in his career. This main event opportunity is being viewed as a chance for him to make a “statement” at 170 lbs. He has certainly had a tough 2020 outside of the Octagon. Health issues have rendered him inactive for the entire year and even before that he had to return to his day job because of a lack of opportunities to fight. But when he’s gotten inside the cage, Neal has been magic. All but one of his five UFC wins have come via stoppage and all those ended no later than early in the second round. Going back further, Neal has had only three fights (out of 15) go to decision and two of them were before 2015. Thompson has been around for a while now, having made his UFC debut back in 2012. He’s even got a couple of title opportunities, though he failed both times. There have been some boring decisions on his resume for sure, and his fights have gone to the judges more often than not lately. However, with Neal’s punching power, Thompson could very well be knocked out at any point here. On the flip side, Neal’s long layoff could have him coming out rusty and cost him the fight early. Either way, I’ll take it as I look for one of these fighters to finish the other off inside of 4.5 rounds Saturday night. 10* Under Neal/Thompson |
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12-19-20 | Clemson v. Notre Dame UNDER 60.5 | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame (4:00 ET): These teams combined for 87 points in the first meeting and this time Clemson will have Trevor Lawrence playing QB. So everyone is going to be expecting plenty of points in the ACC Championship Game between #2 Notre Dame and #3 Clemson. But don’t discount what both defenses are capable of doing here. Interestingly, Lawrence’s presence on the field for this rematch seems to be worth only a couple points to the spread (Clemson was -5 in South Bend), but the total is NINE points higher than the closing number from last month. I see lots of value on the Under in this one. Since Lawrence returned to the field, Clemson has rolled to victories over Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. The Clemson offense put up 97 points in those two wins, but equally impressive is the fact the defense allowed just 27 total. Though Notre Dame was able to put up 47 (in overtime, remember), the Tigers are still allowing only 18.3 PPG for the season and remain an elite unit on that side of the ball. This is also their second look at the Notre Dame offense and I believe they’ll be better prepared to stop Ian Book and company. The Tigers weren’t just missing Lawrence last month, they were w/o three top defensive players including the most important (James Skalski), all of whom are back now. What Notre Dame’s defense did against North Carolina a couple weeks ago may have been among the most impressive performances I’ve seen all season. Holding the Tar Heels to just 17 points and under 300 yards really is a “Herculean achievement” if I do say so myself. The Fighting Irish defense has been even stingier than Clemson’s this season, giving up only 17.1 PPG. There have been only three games this season where ND has allowed more than 21 points. They held Clemson RB Travis Etienne to just 28 yards on 18 carries in the first meeting. Remember that OT added 21 points to that final score in South Bend. The game was “only” 33-33 at the end of regulation. 9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame |
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12-17-20 | Burnley v. Aston Villa OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
10* Over Burnley/Aston Villa (1:00 ET): While I actually believe Aston Villa is a bit undervalued here, I prefer the Over. Let’s focus on Burnley, a side that figures to spend much of this campaign fighting off relegation. Their current position in the table is third from the bottom (18th), which would mean relegation. Make no mistake about it. Despite winning last week (1-0 against Arsenal), Burnley is very much one of the EPL’s weakest sides this season. I’m surprised they’ve only been beaten once in their last five tries. Another interesting thing about Burnley is that their matches have produced the fewest total number of goals in the Premier League. There have been just 24 total goals scored. Some of that is the fact they’ve played only 11 times. They’ve only scored only six goals though. But what we can expect today is for them to concede multiple times. Keep in mind that while there are many sides in the EPL than have conceded more goals than Burnley this season, most of them have played two more matches. Aston Villa seemed to be in downturn, but then they defeated the rival Wolves last week, 1-0. The West Midlands side had previously lost four of five. A concern for them is they’ve conceded a total of nine times in their last three at home. That suggests there will be some scoring opportunities for Burnley here. But of course Aston Villa will score plenty as well. Despite having played the fewest number of matches (10) in the EPL, they are actually tied for 8th in goals scored. They are averaging 2.1 per match. 10* Over Burnley/Aston Villa |
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12-16-20 | Samford v. Troy State OVER 148 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
10* Over Samford/Troy (7:00 ET): All of Troy’s games thus far have stayed Under the total. Note that the last game (Central Baptist) did not have a total posted, but considering the final score (61-44), it would have been an Under had a number been posted. But here, the Trojans are finally matched up against an opponent that has no problem putting the ball in the basket. Samford comes in averaging 86.0 PPG on the season and is 41-22 Over its L63 games overall. This one will be high-scoring. Take the Over. These teams met last season and Samford won 72-60. That was NOT an Over, however Samford shot very well in the win, making over 50% of their shots from three and overall. It was a bad shooting night for Troy, who finished at 32.3% overall and 25.9% from three-point range. Poor shooting has also plagued the Trojans during this 3-3 start as they are at just 34.4% overall from the field and 23.1% from behind the arc. Those are simply hideous numbers and HAVE to improve moving forward. Good thing then that Samford is giving up an average of 78.2 PPG so far. Samford’s last game, a 79-75 loss to Georgia, did NOT go Over the total. However, dating back to last season, their previous seven games all had. Bulldogs’ games are average 164.2 PPG this season, which is well above the total for tonight’s game. Samford has scored at least 75 in all four games and topped 95 twice. They are a top 25 team in adjusted tempo, which means plenty of possessions and more opportunities to score. Troy is 6-2 Over at home when the total is 145 to 149.5. 10* Over Samford/Troy |
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12-16-20 | Sampdoria v. Verona OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
8* Over Sampdoria/Hellas Verona (2:45 ET): Last we checked in with Hellas Verona, I was speaking about just how low scoring their fixtures had been in this Serie A campaign. It was last month when I played them Over the total against Benevento, a struggling side which they took advantage of en route to a 3-1 victory. Such high-scoring fixtures, win or lose, continue to be rare for this side which is now 7th in the table but closing in on the top four. Their nine goals conceded are a Serie A low this campaign. With only nine goals conceded and 15 scored, Hellas Verona fixtures almost seem TOO low-scoring. I said this in the analysis for my previous Over bet and will reiterate it again now that I’m playing that way again. Like the previous Over bet, I Gialloblu are matched up with a side they should be able to score on multiple times. Sampdoria hasn’t kept a clean sheet since October and they’ve conceded exactly two goals in each of their last five Serie A matches. On the bright side, they’ve also scored at least one of their own in each of those five matches. But Sampdoria’s recent form isn’t good as they’ve lost four of six in the Serie A. Last time it was a 2-1 away defeat to Napoli, their sixth overall defeat this campaign. This is going to be a struggle against a side in very good form as Hellas Verona has lost just twice in 11 matches and has taken 8 of a possible 12 points against league heavyweights Juventus, AC Milan, Atalanta and Lazio. Adding to the “impressiveness” is that all four of those matches were away. I look for Verona to “pile it on here” and send this one Over. 8* Over Sampdoria/Hellas Verona |
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12-15-20 | Chelsea v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Over Chelsea/Wolves (1:00 ET): We’ve got two sides that were each kept clean in their respective last matches. Wolverhampton went down 1-0 to rival Aston Villa while Chelsea fell 2-0 to Everton. That loss for Chelsea snapped a 17-game unbeaten run across all competitions, but fans of the Blues need not be concerned as their club should still be considered one of the top teams in the Premier League this season. While I do expect them to win Tuesday, I think an even better (and safer) play is on the Over. Wolverhampton has managed only 11 goals in 12 matches as they’ve been shut out twice in a row. Only the teams fighting off relegation have scored fewer times this season. The Wolves are now stuck down in 13th in the table. But keeping them alive is the fact they’ve conceded just 16 times. Only three EPL teams (Arsenal, Burnley and last place Sheffield United) have had fewer total goals scored in their matches this campaign. For Wolverhampton, I have the feeling that number is going to rise. I absolutely see them getting on the scoresheet today. Chelsea slipped to 5th with the loss last week, but the good news is that if they earn the three here, then they move into a first place tie with Tottenham and Liverpool. They’ve got only two losses this season, tied for the second fewest. They certainly can be relied upon for a goal or two here as they’ve scored the second most times in the EPL with 25 goals. In this fixture last season, it was 5-2 Chelsea. 8* Over Chelsea/Wolves |
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12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles OVER 42 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
10* Over Saints/Eagles (4:25 ET): Well, isn’t this the contrarian play? Even getting more than a touchdown at home, it feels as if the Eagles are getting too MUCH respect this week as they send out Jalen Hurts to make his 1st career NFL start against what might be the league’s best defense. The QB change, precipitated by the horrendous play of Carson Wentz, was needed. It’s a tough spot for Hurts, no doubt. But here’s the thing. What if he’s good? Certainly he can be no worse than Wentz was over the last month or so. New Orleans doesn’t have many problems these days. They are 10-2 SU and in the driver's seat to earn homefield advantage in the NFC Playoffs. Even without Drew Brees, the Saints continue to hum along as they’ve won nine in a row, the last three coming with Taysom Hill as the starting QB. Brees is reportedly close to returning, but there’s no rush considering the Saints are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS WITHOUT him in the lineup the L2 seasons. The offense should score plenty here as they’ve run for 436 yards the L2 weeks. I certainly expect the Saints to score in the neighborhood of their season average of 28.9 PPG. So this is the lowest total on the board Sunday, which can’t be all that surprising with a rookie QB going against a defense that has allowed just two touchdowns and 44 total points in the L5 games. Plus these teams have combined to go Under in 11 straight games. But I believe the Saints can do virtually all the “heavy lifting” here and won’t be surprised if the Eagles score more than expected. Hurts is a bit of an “X-factor.” If New Orleans allows just 20 points here - and that is their season average - we should be in really good shape. I’ve waited all week to try and hit this number at its nadir, so here we go. 10* Over Saints/Eagles |
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12-12-20 | Boise State v. Wyoming UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 52 h 51 m | Show |
9* Under Boise State/Wyoming (6:00 ET): I have been waiting for quite some time to play the Under on Boise State. Unfortunately, their last two games were both called off due to COVID. One was going to be a showdown with the only other Mountain West team still unbeaten in conference play, that being San Jose State. The other cancellation was last Friday vs. UNLV, which would have been a sure win. The reason for my desire to take the Broncos Under the total isn’t just the fact they’ve gone Over in every game. It’s HOW they’ve gone Over - so many non-offensive touchdowns being scored. That can’t continue, can it? Case in point; three weeks ago I went with the Under when Boise hosted Colorado State. While the final score was 52-21 (in the Broncos’ favor) and thus went Over by 11.5 points, BSU scored a ridiculous FOUR non-offensive TDs in that game. Had they “only” scored two, that game would have stayed Under. Two of the four non-offensive TDs were returns of blocked punts. They also blocked a FG and returned that for a score! (What is this, the Chargers?) Not to be outdone, the Broncos returned a kickoff for a TD the following week vs. Hawaii. So while the team is averaging 40.0 PPG this season, that comes with a bit of an asterisk. Wyoming, who suffered the embarrassment of losing to New Mexico last week, has the defense to keep Boise State in check. They allow just 333.5 YPG, which is top 25 in the country. The Cowboys have allowed 17 points or less three times this season and in their only home game thus far, they held Hawaii to just 7 points. I think the public is going to be VERY tempted to take the Over here with such a “low” number, but it was set that way for a reason. Wyoming could be without its star running back (Xazavian Williams) and down to its third-string QB here. Boise State’s defense has allowed under 4.7 yards per play the L2 games. 9* Under Boise State/Wyoming |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams OVER 44.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
10* Over Patriots/Rams (8:20 ET): This particular play definitely flies in the face of results, both recent and long-term. The Under is 5-0 in Rams’ home games this season with their defense allowing an average of just 15.0 PPG. The Under is also 4-0 in the Patriots last four games overall. The Under is 6-2 in both teams’ last eight games. Now that we’ve got all that out of the way, let’s concentrate on the game at hand. The Rams scored 38 last week while the Patriots scored 45. Those were season-highs for both teams. Now the Patriots definitely got a “boost” from their special teams & defense, both of which scored a TD last week vs. the Chargers. They also got a long punt return that set up a field goal. Obviously, I do not expect New England to score 45 points again this week. The key is I don’t expect their defense to play as well. The Over is 4-1 the Patriots L5 games after holding the previous opponent to 15 points or less. The Rams offense averages nearly 400 YPG and 6.0 YPP. QB Jared Goff threw for 351 on yards on Sunday, completing 37 of 47 passes. Going into last week, the Patriots defense was 31st in the league (2nd worst), allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt. I expect another big offensive game from the Rams. New England flat out shocked me in their dismantling of the Chargers. The offense may not have been THAT impressive, but it did go for 165 yards on the ground. The Rams’ defense has been pretty good at stopping the run lately, but hasn’t really faced an offense that runs the ball well, let alone a QB like Cam Newton. This could end up closing as the lowest O/U for a Rams game all season. The only “competition” would be games vs. the Giants and Washington (w/ Dwayne Haskins), two inept offensive teams. 10* Over Patriots/Rams |
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12-10-20 | Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech UNDER 55 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): So these ACC rivals were originally going to play last month, but that was nixed because of COVID. I was going to play the Under back then and will still do so now. Interestingly, the Panthers continue to go Over the total as the L2 weeks have seen them defeat Virginia Tech 47-14 and lose to Clemson 52-17. That makes it seven consecutive Overs for them, but I expect that streak to end Thursday mainly because of the opponent. It’s not Virginia Tech’s bad defense or Clemson’ explosive offense that they’ll be facing at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. Take the Under. Georgia Tech is a team simply playing out the string at this point. The Yellow Jackets are 3-6 and lost last week 23-13 to NC State. I’d be thrilled with a similar final score here, obviously. Georgia Tech’s offense is going to struggle to move the ball this week as they are up against a Pitt defense that leads the ACC in rushing yards allowed. No Panthers’ opponent has gone for more than 156 YPG on the ground this season and the average is just 93.1, which not only leads the conference but is also fifth best in the nation. If that’s not bad enough, Georgia Tech QB Sims has thrown as many INTs as he has TDs and his WR corps is banged up. While its year two under HC Geoff Collins, transitioning away from the triple option offense was going to take time at Georgia Tech. They’re just not “there” yet in terms of running a pro-style offense and have been held to 13 pts or fewer in three of their last five games. Pay no mind to the 55 points they scored two weeks ago vs. Duke as that was a crazy, turnover filled game. What we saw last week is more emblematic of the current state of the Yellow Jackets offense and this is the best defense they will have faced in a while. Pitt leads all of FBS with 43 sacks and their offense won’t need to do much here. This was a 20-10 game last season. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech |
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12-09-20 | Borussia Monchengladbach v. Real Madrid UNDER 3.25 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
8* Under Borussia Monchengladbach/Real Madrid (3:00 ET): Group B is a lot more wide open heading into the final matchday of the Group Stage, at least compared with most other Groups. Borussia Monchengladbach currently is on top with 8 points as they are trying to become the 4th German Bundesliga side to make it through to the Round of 16. Real Madrid is just one point behind and could also see its way to the knockout stage, depending on what happens here and in the Inter-Shakhtar Donetsk match. M’gladbach is clearly in the best position, knowing that all it needs here is a draw to advance. So far, their group battles have been the highest scoring of the entire Champions League (even more than Bayern Munich!) with a total of 23 goals scored in five matches. They’ve scored 16 times themselves while conceding seven. Given the stakes involved Wednesday, I expect a conservative approach from the German side. The bevy of high-scoring results we’ve seen from them recently seems like an anomaly. As for Real Madrid, this is pretty much do or die for the 13-time European champs. A win here would send them to the knockout stage. Anything but a win and it’s likely off to the Europa League for them. Two losses to Shakhtar Donetsk, including 2-0 last week, have been stunning results for Los Blancos. It should be noted that they did deliver a “clean sheet” victory against Sevilla (1-0) over the weekend on the domestic end. While the reverse fixture between these two ended in a 2-2 draw, note Real scored both of its goals late (87th minute and in stoppage time). Four of Real’s last five matches - across all competitions - have seen two or fewer goals scored. The one that didn’t had just three total goals scored. 8* Under Borussia Monchengladbach/Real Madrid |
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12-08-20 | Sevilla v. Rennes OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
10* Over Sevilla/Rennes (3:00 ET): As I predicted weeks ago, Sevilla has climbed up the La Liga table. They now sit a more respectable 6th in the Spanish top flight and I expect them to continue battling for a top four spot domestically. That said, they did just lose 1-0 to Real Madrid over the weekend. They were also kept clean in their last UCL fixture, a much uglier defeat, as they fell 4-0 to Chelsea. That said, I don’t think there’s a ton to worry about here as Sevilla has already booked its ticket to the knockout stage. Rennes’ recent form has been nothing short of terrible as they are plummeting down the Ligue 1 table. They once sat at the top, but are now 9th as they’ve managed just ONE win - 2-1 against Brest - across all competitions since the beginning of October. Their fate here in the Champions League has already been settled as they will finish at the bottom of Group E. Thus far they’ve taken just one point from five matches while scoring only two goals, the fewest of any Champions League side thus campaign. While the reverse fixture was 1-0 (in favor of Sevilla) and both sides have been blanked in their last two matches across all competitions, I feel this situation is ripe to produce an Over on Tuesday. Rennes has conceded a total of 10 times five UCL matches while Sevilla conceded four times in its ugly defeat at the hands of Chelsea last week. With no real stakes for either side, expect a wide open match here in France. Both clubs have been dealing with injured goaltenders. 10* Over Sevilla/Rennes |
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12-06-20 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
8* Over Eagles/Packers (4:25 ET): Seeing as how Aaron Rodgers and the Packers just put up 41 on a very good Bears defense, they should have little difficulty scoring plenty of points here against the sinking ship known as the Eagles. Philadelphia dropped to 3-7-1 SU w/ a home loss to Seattle Monday night. That 23-17 defeat saw them pull off one of the great “backdoor covers” of the season with a TD + 2 pt conversion in the closing seconds (closed +6.5). That made it three straight games where the Eagles have scored exactly 17 points. They’ve got to be due for some more scoring, right? As it turns out, Philly’s last five games have all stayed Under. But that includes two games vs. the Giants (who are 30th in PPG), one vs. Dallas (who was starting Ben DiNucci) and lousy weather in Cleveland. I was a bit shocked to see the Eagles hold the high-scoring Seahawks to just 23 points Monday night. They were particularly stout against the run (gave up only 76 yards on the ground). But on a short week I don’t see them having much success against Rodgers, who has thrown 53 touchdown passes in his last 23 regular season games. Rodgers and this Packers offense average 31.7 PPG and have gone over 30 in 8 of their 11 games. If they were to hit that season average (certainly plausible), then we won’t need much scoring from the struggling Carson Wentz. The only Green Bay game in the last six weeks to stay Under came against Jacksonville. When these teams played last year, the Eagles won 34-27 (at Lambeau!), led by Jordan Howard’s 87 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Howard was just activated from the practice squad this week. This one will sneak Over. 8* Over Eagles/Packers |
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12-06-20 | Jaguars v. Vikings UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
9* Under Jaguars/Vikings (1:00 ET): Last week saw Minnesota overcome an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to beat Carolina 28-27. The game-winning TD came in the final minute as the Vikings are now 5-6 SU on the year. They also had to overcome B2B fumble return for touchdowns to get the win last week. It’s actually quite impressive to win a game when you give up multiple defensive scores. It also means that the amount of scoring from that game was a bit misleading. With the Over now 6-0 in Minnesota home games, this total is pretty high and it’s a good time to bet the Under as they’re facing an opponent that’s bottom five in scoring. I’m actually a bit surprised to see how much scoring Jacksonville has done lately. They’ve hit 20 in four of the last five games, the lone exception being a date with Pittsburgh’s top-rated defense, who held them to three points. Mike Glennon is now the starting QB for the 1-10 Jags, losers of 10 straight.. While his 1st start since 2017 went “okay” last week, Glennon was a bit lucky to be in position to tie the Browns late in the game. The Jags scored a late TD after a pretty questionable roughing the passer call to pull within two. Obviously you know they missed the subsequent 2-point conversion attempt. Two of Jacksonville’s scoring drives last week totaled 44 yards. So they were probably lucky to score 25 points. They probably won’t be as lucky this week facing a Vikings defense that allowed only one touchdown last week and 10 points that weren’t off turnovers. Only two of Jacksonville’s last nine games have seen more than 52 total pts scored and the Under is 2-0 for them this season when the O/U line is above 50.0. 9* Under Jaguars/Vikings |
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12-05-20 | Damon Jackson v. Ilia Topuria UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
8* Under Jackson/Topuria (7:35 ET): This fight takes place in the featherweight division (145 lbs) and is scheduled for three rounds. It pits the undefeated (and heavily favored) Ilia Topuria (9-0) against veteran Damon Jackson (18-3-1). The Under is set for 2.5 rounds, so we would need this fight to be over by the midway point of Round 3 at the latest. I do not see it getting to the scorecards. Topuria made a successful UFC debut back in October as he fought his way to a decision victory over Youssef Zalal. While the result of that fight was left up to the judges, that was a first for Topuria, whose eight finishes to start his career included seven in the first round! Almost all of them were by submission (choke), so be on the lookout for that. The bottom line for our betting purposes is that only two of Topuria’s nine career fight have gone longer than four minutes. Jackson is in his second stint with the UFC. The first didn’t go so well as he suffered a loss, a draw and a no contest. But the second go around has started out much better as he’s off a submission victory over Mirsad Bektic back in September. Like Topuria, Jackson has a reputation as a finisher. You’d have to go all the way back to 2016 to find the last time one of his fights was decided by the judges. Since then, half of his fights have ended in the first round. One of those five was a 10 second loss. Only two of the 10 made it to the third round, one of them being the UFC return in September, but even that was over within 90 seconds of Round 3 beginning. We’re getting a finish here. 8* Under Jackson/Topuria |
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12-05-20 | Texas A&M v. Auburn OVER 48 | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 30 m | Show |
8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn should play a lot better this week as they are back home at Jordan-Hare as opposed to facing Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The difference in play from the Tigers at home vs. on the road is quite striking as they are averaging 34.3 PPG here at home and just 19.0 PPG on the road. They’ve put up at least 29 points in every home game thus far and it was just a few weeks ago they hung 48 on an LSU defense that just held Texas A&M to only 20 last week. I like the Over in this matchup. About that A&M offensive performance last week. They were shockingly held below 300 total yards and to only offensive TD by LSU and that was in College Station. That’s a big warning sign going into this difficult road game, but I hardly expect the Aggies to be shut out Saturday afternoon. Last week was the second lowest-scoring effort of the season and could have had something to do with the unusual layoff (hadn’t played in three weeks) due to COVID. In three of the previous four games, A&M scored more than 40 points. Therefore, even though the Under is 7-1 in all Auburn games this season (including 5-0 the L5), this number appears to be way too low. Every Texas A&M game since they faced Vanderbilt - the lowest scoring team in the SEC - has had an O/U line of at least 54 points and four of those six games have seen at least 51 total points scored. For Auburn, this is their lowest O/U line since an Arkansas game (won 30-28) that produced their lone Over of the season. Each of the L5 totals have been 51 pts or higher w/ three at 63.5 or higher. This is all about VALUE to me. 8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn |
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12-02-20 | Paris Saint-Germain v. Manchester United OVER 2.75 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
10* Over Paris St Germain/Manchester United (3:00 ET): It’s approaching “must-win” territory for PSG on matchday five of the Champions League. The French side is tied with Leipzig (6 points each) for second in Group H and their chances of progressing to the knockout stage is very much in doubt right now. Leipzig will be expected to take the full three points from Istanbul earlier in the day, so there’s a chance PSG could be three points off second place heading into the final matchday. That would be considered quite the disappointment considering they were runners-up in last season’s Champions League. Manchester United enters Wednesday knowing it needs just one point from its final two matches to move on to the knockout stage. The Group H leaders have taken nine points from the first four matches, which includes a 2-1 win over PSG in the reverse fixture back in October. While struggling a bit in the Premier League, there’s no questioning the Red Devils’ scoring prowess here at Old Trafford in international competition. They’ve notched 24 goals while winning their last seven European home outings including nine in the two Champions League outings thus far. PSG’s four UCL matches have been curiously low-scoring affairs. They’ve scored only five goals while conceding four. Despite Man U not having much urgency here, I expect this to turn into another high-scoring affair at Old Trafford. PSG has found the back of the net in all four Champions League matches thus far and let’s not forget about their scoring on the domestic side as they lead Ligue 1 with 30 goals in the current campaign. But the fact they conceded twice to Bordeaux over the weekend should give you pause about taking them in this spot. Over is the call. 10* Over Paris St. Germain/Manchester United |
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11-29-20 | Chargers v. Bills UNDER 53 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
9* Under Chargers/Bills (1:00 ET): I realize this is a “total” contrarian move with the Chargers having gone Over in each of their last seven games and the Bills doing so in their last three. But it’s a high number. For the Chargers, the team that has gone Over in seven straight, there’s a chance this O/U line could close as the highest for any game so far this season. (It’s been as high as 54.5 at some shops earlier in the week). There’s been only one previous Chargers’ game this year where the O/U line closed north of 50. There have definitely been some “extenuating” circumstances helping these Chargers’ games go Over of late. For instance, each of the last two weeks they’ve had a punt blocked after their first possession! Both times the punt block led to their opponent scoring a touchdown. Despite that occurrence, it looked liked the game vs. Miami two weeks ago was still going to Under. But LA scored a “garbage time” TD in the final two minutes to send it Over. Last week against the Jets, the Chargers scored a defensive TD. Plus there was a safety at the end of the game. Buffalo is off its bye week. They probably needed it considering the manner in which they lost to Arizona the prior week (Hail Mary). The Bills are more used to these high totals. But they are not immune to a poor offensive game. Before busting out against the two NFC West teams (Arizona, Seattle) the L2 games, they’d scored 24 or less four straight games. The Under has cashed the last five times the Bills have been off a SU loss. Also, the Chargers are 39-19-1 Under the L59 times they’ve been off a win. 9* Under Chargers/Bills |
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11-28-20 | TCU v. Kansas UNDER 52 | Top | 59-23 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
9* Under TCU/Kansas (8:00 ET): Kansas is not having a good year, to say the least. The Jayhawks are 0-7 SU for HC Les Miles and the best they’ve been able to do at the betting window was a push against West Virginia (on 10/17) as a 21-point underdog. Other than that, they are 0-6 ATS. They are also 6-0-1 Over this season, the push coming back in Game #2 vs. Baylor (a game I cashed Baylor). It’s been five straight Overs since with KU giving up a ton of points in the process. Finally, this week they face an opponent that’s probably NOT going to put up a ton of points. TCU comes in averaging just 24.0 PPG. Three times this season, the Horned Frogs have scored 14 points or less in a game. The most recent was two weeks ago at West Virginia, a 24-6 loss. In that game, they were held below 300 total yards. They weren’t that much better the week prior against Texas Tech (343 yards) despite putting up 34 points on Texas Tech. They basically had three big offensive plays in that game. There have been 20+ players lost to season-ending injuries and that doesn’t even include COVID. This is a young team too; they have just nine scholarship seniors on the roster. QB Duggan has just 5 TD passes all season. TCU figures to score more than “usual” this week, but what about the Kansas offense? The Jayhawks are last in the Big 12 in scoring offense at just 15.1 PPG. (TCU is second worst, for the record). The most points that Kansas has scored in a game all season is 23 (the opener vs. Coastal Carolina) and they’ve been held to 17 pts or less in five of the last six. Three weeks ago, I had an Under on KU that looked to cash, but they scored the ultimate “garbage time” TD (no time remaining), down 62-3. They won’t give up that many this week (as they’re not facing Oklahoma). The two lowest scoring teams in the Big 12 go Under. 9* Under TCU/Kansas |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions UNDER 51.5 | Top | 41-25 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 30 m | Show |
8* Under Texans/Lions (12:30 ET): I also like this Texans-Lions game to stay Under the total. While I do believe the Lions’ offense is going to bounce back from last week’s dreadful effort, the bar for “improvement” is low. They averaged just 3.4 yards per play in the shutout loss and gained fewer than 200 yards total. Those numbers will be way up this week vs. a Houston defense that not only ranks 2nd to last in yards allowed, but also just gave up 6.6 yards per play to New England. Still, it won’t be enough for this game to turn into a shootout. Houston’s offense has become pretty one-dimensional, failing to go over 100 yards rushing in four of its last five games. They got enough Deshaun Watson last week to overcome the Patriots 27-20, but that was still an Under. Two week ago, the Texans could only score 7 points in Cleveland (admittedly poor weather conditions), but it’s worth noting this offense is averaging just 22.7 PPG for the season. The Lions’ defense was a bright spot last week as it held Carolina to just 7 pts in the 1st half and 17 total before a 3-yard drive resulted in a late FG. All four Lions’ home games have gone Over so far, but there’s a good chance this one has the highest closing line. They too are averaging just 22.7 PPG this season, the same number as the Texans’ offense. On the other side of the ball, the last two week have seen this Lions’ defense allow just 10 total points in the first half. The Texans’ defense, while still pretty bad, has allowed just 10 and 20 points its last two games. 8* Under Texans/Lions |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 48 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Rams/Bucs (8:15 ET): So the Rams have gone Under in six straight games. That’s not easy to do in today’s NFL. The defense has been great, allowing 16 points or less in four of those six games. And no longer can you say they’ve just been capitalizing on a slew of poor offensive teams. Last week, they held high-powered Seattle to just 16 points, which was a season-low for the Seahawks. Just to illustrate how impressive last week’s defensive performance was, Seattle has scored at least 28 pts in every other game this season. But LA is about to be tested again here as they face Tom Brady & the Bucs Monday night. It was two weeks ago that Tampa Bay got embarrassed here at home in a 38-3 loss to the Saints. That was on the heels of another sub-par effort in primetime, which they won, but only 25-23 as 13-pt favorites against the Giants. So a lot of people were questioning this team as it made the trip to Carolina last week. But Brady and company silenced the doubters with a truly dominant effort. They crushed the Panthers 46-23 and were +357 in yardage. It was the 4th time since the start of October that the Bucs scored at least 38 points in a game. They come in averaging nearly 30 PPG (29.6), sixth most in the league. The Rams are 4-0 Under at home this year. But this game is in Tampa Bay. It’ll be their fifth time in the last nine weeks playing in the Eastern Time Zone. Not only does the number of points per game the Rams allow go up on the road (to 23.2), so does their own scoring average (up to 26.4). That’s the key here. The Over is 5-0 the L5 times the Rams have been an underdog w/ four of those games taking place on the road. The Bucs averaged 7.1 yards per play last week. This may not be the shootout we got from these teams LY (55-40 Bucs win!), but we only need half that number of points to go Over here. 10* Over Rams/Bucs |
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11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts UNDER 51.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
8* Under Packers/Colts (4:25 ET): Green Bay barely escaped with a 24-20 win over Jacksonville last week. This is a team that thrived in close situations a season ago, going an extraordinary 9-1 SU in one-score games. That’s how you end up w/ a 13-3 SU regular season despite a rather pedestrian +63 point differential. Though just nine games, this year’s Packers have already outscored opponents by 53 points as they are averaging more than 30 points while turning it over only 5 times (second fewest). So you can definitely make a case that they’ve improved rather than regressed. But here the Packers are going to be up against perhaps the stingiest defense in the entire NFL. The Colts rank 1st in total defense coming into this game, allowing just 290.4 YPG. They are #2 against the pass, #3 against the run and #4 in scoring. Last week they held the high-powered Titans below 300 total yards and to just 17 points. Don’t forget the last time Green Bay faced a defense ranked near the top of the league. That was Tampa Bay, who held them to just 10 points and 201 total yards. As great as he is, this probably won’t end up as a stellar game for Aaron Rodgers. The Colts defense has allowed the second fewest TD passes (11) and the lowest passer rating in the league. Indianapolis winning so comfortably against the Titans is owed to a TD that came off a punt block. So they “really” only scored 24 last Thursday. Speaking of special teams touchdowns, the Packers allowed one - a 91-yd punt return - LW vs. Jacksonville. So their defense “really” only gave up 13 points. That’s a week after allowing just 17 (to San Fran) with most of that scoring coming in “garbage time.” The Under is 16-5 in Indy’s last 21 games vs. teams w/ winning records. 8* Under Packers/Colts |
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11-22-20 | Jets v. Chargers UNDER 47 | Top | 28-34 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under Jets/Chargers (4:05 ET): So let’s try this one again. I had the Under in the Chargers game last week. Unfortunately, they had a punt blocked, which gave Miami an early touchdown. From there, at the end of the game, the Chargers would go on to score a “garbage time” TD (were down 15) to officially push the game Over. It was their sixth straight game to go Over the total. Five of those games have ended up being one-score losses, four of them seeing LA blow a double-digit lead. Fortunately though for this week, the Chargers get to host the winless Jets, who are easily the worst team in the league this season. Last week marked the first time all season that the Jets didn’t lose a game. That’s because they didn’t play. Last time we saw Adam Gase’s team was two Mondays ago when they almost beat the Patriots. That 30-27 loss was their second-highest scoring game of the season. I wouldn’t go expecting a repeat of that this week. The previous four games all saw the Jets score 10 points or less. They average a league-low 13.4 PPG (nearly 6 PPG fewer than the next worst team) and also last in yards per game (266.0), 34.9 fewer than the next worst team.. They have been held to 17 points or fewer in seven of their nine games this season. So we can count on the Jets not scoring much here. What about the Chargers? Rookie QB Justin Herbert has played better than most expected, even if the performance hasn’t translated into wins. But I expect a conservative offensive game plan this week from the all-too conservative Anthony Lynn. I think it’s fair to say last week’s game against the Dolphins probably shouldn’t have gone Over. Miami was able to get 13 points by driving a total of 30 yards and also had a 32-yard TD drive. Before the loss to New England, four straight Jets’ games had stayed Under. I just think the Chargers are due for an Under and this is the perfect opponent for it. The Under is 15-7 when LA is favored. 10* Under Jets/Chargers |
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11-22-20 | Alex Perez v. Deiveson Figueiredo OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -170 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
8* Over Perez/Figueiredo (11:50 ET): This is for the UFC’s Flyweight Title and scheduled for five rounds. It is the main event of the evening. Though the champion Figueiredo is nearly a 3:1 favorite for this title defense, expect Perez to put up a fight and possibly even push this thing into the “championship rounds.” All we need is for the fight to make it to the halfway point of Round 2. Take the Over 1.5 rounds. Figueiredo is 19-1 and officially won the title back in July w/ a first round submission win over Joseph Benavidez. The Flyweight Division (125 lbs) has never been a real priority for the UFC, but hopefully Figueiredo is the guy to restore the title to the level it was at in the Demetrious Johnson days. Figueiredo has won four straight fights since suffering his only career loss, the last three wins all coming by stoppage. But stopping Perez may prove problematic as he’s only lost one time since 2016 (to Benavidez). Two straight first round finishes gave him this opportunity, but things obviously aren’t going to go that well for him here. Perez is a wrestler, so he’s going to look to get this fight down on the mat. If successful, a finish would surprise me. While an active striker, Perez is also good at “playing defense.” 8* Over Perez/Figueiredo |
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11-21-20 | Jennifer Maia v. Valentina Shevchenko OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
8* Over Maia/Shevchenko (11:25 ET): Here’s a fight with VERY long odds as the Women’s Flyweight Champion Shevchenko comes in as a massive favorite to retain her title. She obviously should, but I also expect this one to go a little longer than anticipated Saturday night. While she’s had many impressive victories, sometimes when matched with an opponent not willing to engage, things can get downright boring. Three of Shevchenko’s last five fights have gone to the scorecards. All these are five round fights remember. We don’t need to get nearly that far for this Over to cash as all we’re looking for is things to make it past the halfway point of Round 3. Shevchenko doesn’t have a first round finish since 2013 and the vast majority of her fights do end up in the judges’ hands. Only three of her L11 fights didn’t make it until the third round. Meanwhile, Maia had EIGHT straight fights go to decision before a 1st round submission win over Joanne Calderwood back in August. That landed her the title shot here. She’s been stopped only two times in her entire career and the last one was 2012! So she’ll make Shevchenko work for it here. 8* Over Maia/Shevchenko |
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11-21-20 | Mississippi State v. Georgia OVER 44 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
8* Over Miss State/Georgia (7:30 ET): Mississippi State has gone Under in five straight, which is something we’re certainly not accustomed to seeing from a MIke Leach coached outfit. If you recall, it was a little over a month ago that I went on the record and stated the Bulldogs were an overrated side after beating LSU 44-34 in the season opener. Sure enough, they haven’t covered since (0-5 ATS) though they did snap a four-game SU losing streak by defeating Vanderbilt 24-17 two weeks ago. Mississippi State was supposed to play Auburn last week. But that game didn’t take place due to COVID-19, just like Georgia’s scheduled game vs. Missouri was not played. So both teams are off the unexpected bye this week. Last time we saw UGA was two weeks ago when they were ran off the field by Florida, 44-28. It was the Bulldogs’ second loss in three games and their highly touted defense gave up 41+ in both defeats. The other was against Alabama, who beat Miss State 41-0 earlier this year. That Alabama loss was the only game where MSU faced a larger spread than this. It obviously didn’t go well and stayed Under. But the total for that game was 64. The first five MSU games all had O/U lines of 56 pts or higher. Facing the Georgia defense means this O/U line will obviously be lower, but the ‘Dawgs can potentially send this one Over almost by themselves -- no matter who starts at QB. The underdog will score enough to ensure this is a comfortable Over. Remember they put up over 600 yards on LSU! 8* Over Miss State/Georgia |
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11-21-20 | Sasha Palatnikov v. Louis Cosce UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -154 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
8* Under Palatnikov/Cosce (6:40 ET): This is the one total on the undercard that I’m focused on. It’s the opener of the entire card, scheduled for three rounds, between a pair of welterweights making their respective UFC debuts. Don’t expect this fight to last very long though. I’m taking the Under 1.5 rounds. Cosce came through Dana White’s Contenders Series. He is 7-0 and brings in some serious knockout potential. All seven of his career victories have come via 1st round finish! The longest any of those seven fights went was 4:34. Four of his last five have been over within two minutes! So history is definitely on our side with this bet. Coming in as a big favorite, Cosce is likely to put this one to bed very early. Palatnikov is 5-2 and neither of his last two fights made it to Round 2. Again, just to be clear, this bet cashes as long as things end by the midway point of Round 2. Whether it's Cosce “doing what he does” or Palatnikov landing a “lucky punch,” this has all the makings of a very quick opener. Note Palatnikov used to fight at middleweight, so he could be stronger than expected. 8* Under Palatnikov/Cosce |
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11-21-20 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 54.5 | Top | 14-47 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Va Tech/Pitt (4:00 ET): Pittsburgh is a team we haven’t heard much from lately. That’s because they’ve played just one game in the last three weeks. It was a win, 41-17 over Florida State, which snapped a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak. A streak that did continue w/ that blowout win over the Seminoles was the Panthers going Over the total, now at five straight. This week they are up against a Va Tech team that’s no stranger to high-scoring games this season. But I think the number is too high. There was some concern over whether or not this game would even be played due to COVID-19. Then came a Pennsylvania state edict that seemed like it would require all players to wear masks during the game. That was later clarified (on Friday) and no longer will face coverings be required. What we hope is required is some defense. That shouldn’t be a problem w/ Pitt, whose defense leads the country with 38 sacks this season. The Panthers allow less than 300 total YPG and only 79 YPG on the ground (just 2.2 YPC!). That stout run defense will come in handy against Va Tech RB Khalil Herbert, who has been banged up recently. The Hokies are coming off B2B close losses to Miami and Liberty, two home games that they probably should have won. On the bright side, they did just hold a very potent Miami offense to 25 points. The Hurricanes had only 13 on the board late in the 3Q. Pitt’s offense, even w/ QB Pickett back, is nowhere near as good as Miami’s. Interestingly enough, Va Tech’s defense is #2 in the country (behind Pitt) in sacks. I think that the respective defensive fronts will rule this game. 8* Under Va Tech/Pitt |
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11-21-20 | Georgia State v. South Alabama OVER 57.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
8* Over Georgia St/South Alabama (3:30 ET): South Alabama has gone Under in each of its last five games, but I think a matchup against Georgia State will help buck that particular trend. While its definitely true that Georgia State struggled to move the ball in losses against two of the Sun Belt’s heavyweights, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State, their offene has performed VERY well otherwise. Those “other” four games have seen the Panthers score at least 31 points every time out, three times scoring 49 or more. In fact, Georgia State started out the year by going Over in each of its first four games. I went Under when they faced Coastal Carolina and despite the Panthers giving up 51 points in that game, it was a win for me and my clients as Georgia State “forgot to score” (got shutout). That loss isn’t really indicative of where the Panthers “are at,” although they have given up 34 or more points five times this season including 50 or more on two different occasions. You can usually count on it being a high-scoring game when Georgia State is involved. South Alabama’s season began with a very rare road win over Southern Miss (32-21). Since then they are just 2-5 with the two wins coming against La Monroe and Texas State, both of whom are awful. In four of their five losses, the Jaguars have been held to 17 points or less. But that shouldn’t be the case here facing the suspect Georgia State defense. They are due for an Over and it should come here against a team that has twice gone Over a total of 70.0 this season! 8* Over Georgia State/South Alabama |
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11-21-20 | VfL Wolfsburg v. Schalke 04 OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Wolfsburg/Schalke 04 (9:30 AM ET): Wolfsburg still has yet to lose a match this Bundesliga campaign. The only other side in the top German flight than can claim that is Bayer Leverkusen, who currently sits 4th in the table. Wolfsburg is 6th due to drawing in five of their seven matches. Other than that head-scratching percentage of draws, the other thing you’ll notice about Wolfsburg’s results is how low-scoring they’ve been. That will end Saturday when they face one of the bottom teams in the table, Schalke 04. Schalke currently finds itself in the relegation zone, sitting 17th (out of 18) with just three points. They’re still winless in the Bundesliga this season, but have actually shown some recent improvement with three draws in the last four domestic matches. The most recent came against fellow relegation zone occupant Mainz, a 2-2 affair that saw Schalke twice rally back from a one-goal deficit. However, they could not have earned said draw w/o being gifted an own goal in the 82nd minute. Schalke is dead last in the Bundesliga with a -17 goal differential, which is owed to the fact they’ve conceded more times than anybody (22 goals allowed). This is a side that’s won just one time in its last 24 fixtures and it was against a team of amateurs (literally) earlier this month. This should be an easy three points for Wolfsburg, but obviously the price is too high to play things that way. So instead I’ll call for a “coming out party” offensively as they could easily send this one Over themselves. 10* Over Wolfsburg/Schalke 04 |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green UNDER 58.5 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green (7:00 ET): Bowling Green is looking like it might be the worst team in the country this season. If not them, it’s Akron (another team from the MAC), who has lost 19 in a row. Last week saw the Falcons get drubbed 62-24 by Kent State. They are now 0-2 SU/ATS as they lost their season opener 38-3 to Toledo. This matchup with 2-0 Buffalo, perhaps the MAC’s best team, is less than ideal. The Bulls have covered 9 of their last 10 games overall (beat Miami 42-10 last week) and have covered six straight seasons against Bowling Green. Despite the huge spread here, I almost laid the points. But that doesn’t seem prudent. Instead it’s a play on the total that needs to be made. Bowling Green has given up 100 points in two games. But as bad as the defense has been, the offense might be worse. They ranked 128th in scoring last season (16.0 PPG) as well as 124th in yards per play and 120th in yards per game. There was some hope w/ Boston College transfer Matt MacDonald coming in to play QB, but he’s been HORRIBLE, completing only 14 of his 50 pass attempts (not a misprint!). The Falcons just aren’t going to score many points Tuesday against a decent Buffalo defense. That brings us to the Buffalo offense. As mentioned above, it was a very impressive 42-10 win over Miami last week. That followed a 49-point effort in the opener at Northern Illinois, but they had a lot of short TD drives in that game because of five NIU turnovers. Even if Buffalo puts up 40 again this week (very possible), I still see this game going Under. The last two years have seen Buffalo beat BG by scores of 49-7 and 44-14. It’s probably going to be a similar score tonight, which would work just fine. Bowling Green is 14-5 Under L19 games. 10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green |
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11-15-20 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 54.5 | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -101 | 72 h 35 m | Show |
9* Over Seahawks/Rams (4:25 ET): I have been skeptical of the Seahawks all season, mainly because their woeful pass defense remains a huge liability. It cost them last week as they gave up 44 points and 415 yards passing to Josh Allen and the Bills. While that was only their second loss of the season, Seattle is getting outgained on the year (despite Russell Wilson) and has now given up more passing yardage in eight games than the famed “Legion of Boom” defense did the entire 2013 season! The Over is 6-2 in Seahawks games this season with the fewest total number of points scored being 53. The Rams, who are off their bye, are not the opponent Seattle wants to see right now. Since Sean McVay took over, Los Angeles has averaged more than 30 PPG against this Seahawks’ defense, which has never been worse than it is right now. Keep in mind that Jamal Adams returned last week and Seattle still got torched. LA lost two weeks ago to Miami 28-17 (which was my 10* NFL Game of the Year -- on Miami!), but actually outgained the Dolphins more than 3:1 in the game (471-145). I fully expect that with an extra week of preparation the Rams offense is going to put up a big number here against a defense that is last in yards allowed and 30th in scoring. The Seahawks’ defense is currently on pace to allow the most passing yards EVER in a NFL season. The Rams’ Jared Goff has thrown for at least 290 yards in the last four meetings. Adams might be back, but he was terrible last week, and both Seattle corners are now banged up. But Seattle still has a chance here because of Russell Wilson, who leads an offense that is averaging 34.3 PPG. The Rams have gone Under in five straight, but those games were against the Giants, Washington, San Francisco, Chicago and Miami. The Seahawks are a much different opponent with Wilson having seven touchdown passes of 20+ yards this season. 9* Over Seahawks/Rams |
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11-15-20 | Chargers v. Dolphins UNDER 48.5 | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 33 m | Show |
9* Under Chargers/Dolphins (4:05 ET): Miami has turned into a real success story as they’ve gotten to 5-3 SU by winning four straight games. They’re 4-0 ATS as well during the win streak. But as much as I want to pull for them, they have been outgained by 456 yards since Tua Tagovailoa became the starting QB. They’ll have a special place in my heart due to being my 10* NFL Game of the Year two weeks ago and they beat the Rams 28-17. But the truth is that was one of the most misleading final scores of the year. The Dolphins were actually outgained by more than a 3:1 margin (471-145) in that contest! Tua looked a lot better last week in leading a 34-31 upset over Arizona (on the road). But the ‘Fins were still outgained in that game by over 100 yards. The big story for Miami these last two weeks has been non-offensive touchdowns as they have THREE of them, two on defense and one punt return. Against the Rams, they also started a drive inside the five-yard line. So Tua really hasn’t moved the ball as well as you might think and the fact the team is averaging 31 PPG w/ him as the starter is a total mirage. On the flip side, I really like the Dolphins defense, which is allowing just 20.1 PPG this season, 4th fewest in the league. While Miami is on the rise, the Chargers can’t seem to get out of their own way. Last week was another close loss as all six defeats this year have been by seven points or less. That’s the most one-score losses in the first eight games of a season - ever! I’d love to say this is where they turn things around, but my power rankings actually say the value is on Miami here. But with the Dolphins’ recent scoring being a bit of a mirage and LA being 5-0 Over its L5 games, my call is that this ends up being a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams have gone Under! 9* Under Chargers/Dolphins |
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11-14-20 | Kristina Williams v. Abdul Razak Alhassan UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 52 h 48 m | Show |
8* Under Williams/Alhassan (8:55 ET): The co-main event of this Saturday’s Fight Night card is a welterweight battle between Khaos Williams (10-1) and Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-2). It shouldn't take long for it to be over. I don’t care who wins, just that we get a quick finish. This one will be over before we hit the halfway mark of Round 2. The matchup is pretty reminiscent of a previous Under play I had last month with Alan Baudot vs. Tom Aspinall. Take the Under 1.5 rounds here. Williams’ UFC debut was as short as it was spectacular. He won w/ a vicious 27 second knockout of Alex Morno, a 10-fight UFC vet. That’s nothing new for “Khaos” as four of his seven straight victories have ended in Round 1. But he’s an underdog here for a reason and that’s the book on Williams is he can be lured into a brawl and put away. That’s probably what’s going to happen here as he faces a much tougher opponent in Alhassan. Alhassan is off a decision loss to Mounir Lazzez back in July. But prior to that, 10 of his first 11 fights ended in Round 1. Ironically, the one exception was his only other loss, which came by decision. So we’ve got a fighter here w/ 10 career victories that have all come via first round stoppage. That’s pretty remarkable. History probably repeats itself in that regard here, though I’ll also take Williams replicating what he did last time out. Either way, this fight is not lasting long. 8* Under Williams/Alhassan |
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11-14-20 | Northwestern v. Purdue OVER 50.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
9* Over Northwestern/Purdue (7:30 ET): I’m still very unhappy how last week’s Nebraska-Northwestern game turned out. I had Nebraska plus the points and judging by the fact they outgained N’western 442-317, you would have thought they’d at least covered. Incredibly, the Cornhuskers were in the red zone SEVEN times and came away with just 13 points. They missed a field goal and had two costly interceptions before turning it over on downs (inside the 15) on the drive that decided the game. Nine times in the game Nebraska crossed midfield. So let’s be careful before anointing Northwestern’s defense as anything special, okay? Unlike Nebraska, Purdue should be able to cash in its scoring chances as it hosts the Wildcats this week. The Boilermakers have scored 24 and 31 points in their two games thus far, both of them wins. Last week they were set to face Wisconsin, but COVID 19 cancelled that matchup. So with an extra week to prepare for the Northwestern defense, I think Purdue’s offense will do well Saturday night. I’d like the chances even more if WR Rondale Moore and RB King Doerue (both gametime decisions) suited up for the 1st time this season. But consider that a luxury if one or both do. Over is the play here regardless. In Moore’s absence, David Bell has put up big numbers with 22 catches for 234 yards. (Remember, that’s just two games). These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this season, but that trend is about to end. Northwestern could get its starting RB (Isaiah Bowser) back from an injury, again something that should be considered a luxury if he does suit up. The Wildcats did put up 43 points in the season opener (vs. Maryland) so they are more than capable of a big offensive game themselves. Over is 7-3-1 in N’western’s L11 games as a road favorite while it’s also 15-5 in Purdue’s L20 as a home dog. 9* Over Northwestern/Purdue |
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11-14-20 | UTEP v. UTSA OVER 45 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
8* Over UTEP/UTSA (3:00 ET): The big surprise is that both of these teams come into Saturday sporting .500 records. That may not sound like much, but UTEP and UTSA aren’t exactly what you’d consider traditional powerhouses. In the three seasons before this one, UTEP went 2-34 straight up! They’ve already exceeded that three-year win total with a 3-3 SU start to 2020. UTSA hadn’t been nearly as bad as UTEP, but has already matched LY’s win total by going 4-4 SU. They are the favorites here and likely to win. Some context should probably be provided with UTEP’s 3-3 SU start. The Miners have beaten two FCS programs (Stephen F Austin, Abilene Christian) and a LA Monroe team I consider to be among the bottom five in the FBS. On a more positive front, the offense has averaged 25.3 points and 384 yards the L3 games (all vs. FBS foes). Their two highest scoring games of the season (31 vs. LA Monroe and 28 vs. Charlotte) have come during that stretch. Hopefully, the fact they haven’t played in three weeks (COVID-19) doesn’t slow them down. This will also be the Miners’ 4th consecutive road game. What initially caught my eye here is the fact UTSA has gone Under in five straight games. They last played two weeks ago and lost 24-3 to Florida Atlantic. But the Roadrunners also gave BYU their toughest game (27-20) and have been involved in three other games where at least 53 total points were scored. That’s why I think this number is too low. UTSA games are averaging 51.3 PPG this season (51-48 win over Texas State helps) while UTEP games average 45.2. This is the lowest O/U line for either team this season. The Over is 13-3 in UTEP’s last 16 November games. 8* Over UTEP/UTSA |
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11-13-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Florida International OVER 39 | Top | 38-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida International (7:00 ET): This total opened low and it’s dropped even lower. I now think it’s low enough that an Over play is definitely warranted. Over the course of any football game, there are so many “random” things that can take place, such as a “big play” or a turnover. For a game to stay Under a total this low, all of that would have to be avoided. I’m willing to bet that we get some of that randomness here. Getting two College Football teams to score 20 points in 2020 doesn’t seem like a big ask. Even if both don’t here, one will score enough to get the game Over. I am obviously well aware of the fact that every FAU game has stayed Under so far. Through four games, the Owls are averaging just 16.0 PPG while allowing only 11.5 PPG. They are off a 10-6 win over Western Kentucky last week, a game in which I took the points (w/ WKU) and won. No team in the country has seen a lower total PPG scoring average this season than the Owls. But 27.5 PPG is simply too low of a number to sustain. Here they are facing a FIU defense that’s giving up 28.7 PPG. Throw in the fact that the Panthers scored a combined 62 points their first games and this should easily produce FAU’s highest scoring game to date. FIU hasn’t played in three weeks. Last time we saw them, the Panthers suffered an embarrassing 19-10 defeat at the hands of FCS Jacksonville State. But with all the extra time to prepare for FAU, my view is that FIU’s offense is going to have a bounce back game. Same for FAU, who was tied 0-0 w/ WKU last week. A change at QB was made last week for the Owls and Javion Posey led the game-winning drive. FIU’s defense is giving up 460 YPG. The Over has cashed the L4 times these “Shula Bowl” rivals have met in Miami. Consider that the closing O/U lines for these teams in Week 1 were 63.0 and 61.0. This number is just too low not to try w/ the Over. 10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida Intl |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Colorado State/Boise State (8:00 ET): Boise State was severely humbled last week, here on the blue turf no less, losing 51-17 to BYU. Quite frankly, it could have been a whole lot worse. I was actually debating playing the Broncos last Friday, but in retrospect am obviously very glad to have passed. I think it’s going to be a pretty difficult loss for them to shake as this week they host Mountain West rival Colorado State. All three Boise State games thus far have gone Over the total. Not this one though. Colorado State probably “deserves” to be 1-1 thus far, though I think each score was somewhat misleading. In a season-opening 38-17 loss at Fresno State, they didn’t play nearly as poorly as one would expect judging from that final score. Conversely, they were actually outgained 465-342 in a 34-24 win over Wyoming last weekend. That game saw the Rams obviously benefit from a +3 turnover margin as they opened the scoring with a “pick-six.” The CSU offense isn’t running the ball all that effectively thus far (3.2 YPC) and is averaging just 22 PPG when you take away that defensive score. On the positive side, Colorado State’s defense is allowing just 2.5 yards per carry. They may also be in luck in that Boise State could be down to its third string QB. Starter Hank Bachmeier is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has missed the L2 games. His backup, Jack Sears, was knocked out of the BYU game with a concussion. Whether or not either can make it back on the field for Thursday, this is an easy call on the Under, which is 25-11 in Boise’s last 36 home games. 10* Under Colorado State/Boise State |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 78 h 51 m | Show |
10* Over Patriots/Jets (8:15 ET): Despite an unheard of four-game losing streak in Foxboro, I don’t think the Patriots should be written off just yet. They easily could have beaten Buffalo on the road last week. While certainly not up to the caliber of past Bill Belichick teams, this one is closer to average than the 2-5 record suggests. Facing the winless Jets Monday night, I think the offense gets back on track and starts to resemble what we saw earlier in the year in games against Seattle and Las Vegas. The pointspread is too high, so Over is the call Monday night. Statistically speaking, the Jets have one of the worst defenses in the league. They are in the bottom 7 in both yards and points allowed. Last week’s 35-9 loss to the Chiefs saw KC elect not to run the ball very much. The previous seven weeks the Jets allowed 110+ rushing yards. Expect them to get a healthy dose of Cam Newton tonight. The Pats gained 188 yds rushing LW vs. Buffalo, the 4th time this season they’ve gained 185 or more. This should be a “get right” game for the New England offense. The Jets offense seems destined to have to start Joe Flacco at QB (Sam Darnold has a shoulder injury) and while that may not sound awesome, it’s not like Darnold had been playing all that well. No matter who the Jets’ starting QB is, improvement on third down has to be something we see. The team is last in the league, converting just 28.3% of 3D opportunities including 16.2% of its L37. That’s unsustainable and by the simple “law of averages” HAS to get better. While not the lowest O/U line for either team, it’s pretty close this week. The Over is 3-0 this season in Jets’ games where the total is below 42. All but two of their games have seen more points scored than this total. 10* Over Patriots/Jets |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 51 | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 56 h 15 m | Show |
8* Under Saints/Buccaneers (8:20 ET): While so much focus will be paid attention to all the talent returning at receiver in this game, these are two of the top three run defenses in the league. Tampa Bay is 1st, giving up only 70.4 YPG on the ground while New Orleans isn’t too far behind (allows 90.6 YPG). So neither offense is going to run the ball all that effectively. Yes, I know every Saints game this season has gone Over the total. But there have been only EIGHT times in NFL history where a team has opened a season with eight consecutive Overs. Take the Under here. So Michael Thomas should be back for the Saints. Tampa Bay “expects” Chris Godwin back while the “controversial” Antonio Brown will make his debut here as well. That’s obviously a lot of talent at receiver, but I don’t expect any of those players to have big games Sunday night. Furthermore, the Bucs other standout WR (Mike Evans) has just five catches in his past three matchups with New Orleans. Saints RB Alvin Kamara has been hobbled by a foot injury this week. If you’re a fantasy owner, expect some of these star skill position players to have down weeks! While the Week 1 meeting between these teams saw 57 total points scored and (obviously) went Over, be aware that included a “pick six” from Tom Brady. Also, the Saints offense (w/ Thomas) gained just 271 total yards, a season-low. Tampa Bay had just 310 total yards, which was also their season-low. Both offenses are obviously now much more “in sync,” but I look for the defenses to steal the spotlight away from the much more heralded offenses in this one. I just can’t see another NO game going Over. 8* Under Saints/Buccaneers |
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11-08-20 | Hoffenheim v. VfL Wolfsburg OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
10* Over Hoffenheim/Wolfsburg (9:30 ET): Wolfsburg has yet to lose this Bundesliga campaign. The only other club that can make that claim is Bayer Leverkusen, who also plays Sunday. Yet Die Wolfe still find themselves sitting 11th in the table, despite being unbeaten and having conceded only four goals. How can this be? Well, they’ve only scored five times and that’s led to five draws in six matches! For the record, I had them in their only win, which came two weeks ago against promoted Arminia Bielefeld. While not unbeaten like Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim has quite a credential on its 2020-21 resume and that’s a 4-1 win over Bayern Munich prior to the first International break. But since that shocking upset, there’s been a real downturn in form as they’ve taken just one point from their last four matches (in a 1-1 draw w/ Werder Bremen). Amidst that slide on the domestic side has been some strong play in the Europa League, however. TSG has won all three matches in that competition while scoring 11 goals. They are off 5-0 win over Liberec midweek, a result which is notable for this play. With just nine total goals (five scored, four conceded) in six matches, Wolfsburg is due for some “fireworks,” at least in my estimation. FWIW, this is the same tact I took with my last Over bet on the pitch, last Monday w/ Hellas Verona, a Serie A side whose season had started in familiar fashion to Wolfsburg’s here in the Bundesliga. HV scored three goals in a win Monday. Hoffenheim has both scored and conceded 10 times in this campaign. Look for this one to go Over the total. 10* Over Hoffenheim/Wolfsburg |
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11-07-20 | Kansas v. Oklahoma UNDER 63.5 | Top | 9-62 | Loss | -109 | 115 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma (3:30 ET): During this perfect 11-0 NCAAF totals run that I am on, it’s been pretty surprising just how many Unders have been cashed. What I’ve been doing is simply going Under in games where one or both teams have been on long Over streaks. We’ve got one here in Kansas, who has seen all of its games - but one - go Over this season. That one exception, a 47-14 loss to Baylor, was a push. This matchup with Oklahoma completely fits the bill of what I’ve been doing during the streak. I’m taking the Under. Now I realize there is concern that Oklahoma has the capability to send this one Over themselves. Last week, the Sooners hung 62 on Texas Tech. But their previous high (in regulation) for a game was 48 against a FCS school, Missouri State, and that was also a shutout. If OU is up as big as expected here (they are a 38-pt favorite!), then it’s highly likely they take their “foot off the gas” in the second half. Last week they scored 48 in the first half and then only 14 in the second. It’s unlikely they are going to score 48 in a half two weeks in a row. Kansas won’t score much at all here. The 22 points they put up last week was a season-high in Big 12 play. The previous four games were all 17 pts or less and twice they failed to reach 200 total yards. It should be noted that four of their six games have finished with 61 total points or less. Last week was right at 60 before Iowa State curiously scored two late TDs. This is the highest O/U line of the year for any Kansas game. It will stay Under the number. 10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants UNDER 45 | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 40 m | Show |
10* Under Bucs/Giants (8:15 ET): The point spread for this game has been bet up considerably. While it’s hard to fathom Tampa Bay losing outright, laying double digits (especially on the road) is something I would almost never do in this league. So we turn to the total. The Buccaneers shouldn’t have much trouble containing the Giants’ meager offense Monday night. This Bucs’ defense is allowing just 20.3 PPG and is one of only three defenses in the league (Colts, Steelers) to be allowing LESS than 300 total yards per game. They are #1 against the run. Heading into Sunday, Tampa Bay had the best point differential in the sport. They’ve outscored their opponents by 80 points. The defense has allowed more than 20 points in just two games this season. They allowed 34 in a Week 1 loss to the Saints and then 31 in a Week 4 win over the Chargers. In both games, QB Tom Brady was guilty of throwing a “pick six,” so the defensive numbers (in terms of points allowed) are even better than they already look. The Giants offense, in case you didn’t know, is one of the very worst in the league. They are averaging just 17.4 PPG and the only time they’ve topped 21 was against the Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the league. So I’m pretty confident that the Giants are not scoring many points here. Not only have they scored 21 pts or less in six of seven games, they’ve been held under 17 four times. Those four times were against the best four defenses they’ve faced and a case could be made that TB is the BEST defense they will face all season! So it all comes down to the Giants defense hopefully containing Brady and company. The Bucs’ offense will be without Chris Godwin (one of their starting receivers) so that’s a plus on that front. They did put up 45 themselves last week, but that was on the heels of two games where they averaged a modest 330 YPG. Only one Giants game all season has seen more than 45 total pts scored. 10* Under Bucs/Giants |
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11-02-20 | Benevento v. Verona OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
10* Over Benevento/Hellas Verona (2:45 ET): The final match of Week Six in Serie A sees two teams from the middle of the table hooking up. Recently promoted Benevento, after a surprising 2-1 start to the season, seems to have fallen into poor form. They’ve lost three in a row including 4-2 to Empoli in the Coppa Italia midweek. Hellas Verona is off a 3-3 draw against Venezia in the Coppa Italia, a result not unfamiliar to them as it was their third straight draw overall. They drew LY’s champs Juventus (1-1) in their last Serie A competition. Hellas Verona has somewhat become “known” for playing to a draw. In 2020, only one other side from Europe’s top five leagues - La Liga’s Celta Vigo (14) - has more draws than Hellas Verona’s 11. But something else HV matches have been known for this year - at least here in Serie A - is being low scoring. In five previous matches, they’ve conceded only twice. That’s comfortably the fewest number in the league. They’ve also only scored five times, which is tied for the league-low. But I feel that’s about to change in this matchup. Benevento has conceded 14 times, which is third most in all of Serie A. And consider that’s despite not yet playing their sixth match. At the same time, the nine goals scored is somewhat respectable. Benevento has conceded at least twice in five of their last six matches. They should give up at least that many here, probably at least one in the first half as Hellas Verona is the lone Serie A side w/o a 1H goal this season. (That’s due to change). It would be huge if Benevento found the back of the net as well and I think they will as they’ve yet to be kept clean. 10* Over Benevento/Hellas Verona |
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10-31-20 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech UNDER 57.5 | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
8* Under Notre Dame/Georgia Tech (3:30 ET): Georgia Tech is two weeks removed from a 73-7 beatdown at the hands of Clemson. I played against them last week, thinking +3.5 was WAY too short of a number on the road vs. Boston College. I couldn’t have been more right. The Yellow Jackets lost 48-27 in Chestnut Hill in what was my top ACC play for October. However, be advised that the number of points GT allowed was a bit misleading. BC had a defensive TD + three scoring drives of less than 40 yards (all TDs). Notre Dame is playing in the ACC this year and off to a 5-0 start (four wins in conference play). They completely crushed Pitt last week with the offense putting up 45 points. But let’s not dismiss what the defense did, holding the Panthers to just three points and 44 yards rushing. The Fighting Irish lead the ACC in both scoring and total defense and are top 10 nationally in both categories. They’ve allowed only one opponent (Florida State) to score more than 13 points this year. Maybe Notre Dame can ask Georgia Tech for some “tips” about facing Clemson because that’s who the Irish will face NEXT week. With such a huge game on deck (two Top 5 teams!), I seriously doubt Brian Kelly will want to show much offensively in a game his team should win easily. Remember it was only two weeks ago that the Irish scored only 12 points in a win over Louisville. So it’s not as if they’re immune to an “off day.” Georgia Tech’s defense has been pretty bad, leading to five straight Overs, but remember the theme of this 3-pack. They’ll benefit from ND being a little disinterested in this one. 8* Under Notre Dame/Ga Tech |
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10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 51-0 | Win | 100 | 96 h 57 m | Show |
8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State (12:00 ET): The theme of this 3-pack of totals will be readily apparent to those who have followed recent/season results. Bottom line is I’m looking to buck the Over trends from certain teams. One such example is Georgia State, who has gone Over in all four games this season. The last time I checked in with this team was two weeks ago and they gave up 59 points in a loss to Arkansas State (They scored 52 in that game). Crazy as it may sound, the Panthers’ defense isn’t as bad as that performance (or some other numbers suggest). Georgia State is actually quite good at stopping the run. They are allowing just 97.0 YPG on the ground and 3.15 yards per carry, both of which are Sun Belt bests. This is particularly handy against a Coastal Carolina offense whose strength is an ability to run and will likely be starting a backup QB for the second straight week. In last week’s 36-34 win over Troy, Georgia State gave up two defensive touchdowns, skewing the scoreboard. Besides the wild Arkansas State game, the Panthers’ defense has not surrendered more than 30 points in regulation all season. Coastal Carolina’s defense was outstanding last week as it held Georgia Southern to 14 points (none in the 2H) and only 218 total yards in a season-best effort. The Chanticleers have held every opponent to 27 points or less and are now 5-0 SU, earning themselves a Top 20 ranking for the 1st time. The defense is #26 in the country in yards allowed per game. With Fred Payton likely to start in place of the injured Grayson McCall for a second straight game, the offense isn’t as dynamic as it was at the start of the season. Even w/ the number coming down, this is still likely to close as the 2nd highest CC O/U line to date. 8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State |
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10-31-20 | Temple v. Tulane UNDER 60.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Temple/Tulane (12:00 ET): These teams are a combined 7-1-1 Over, but remember the theme of the 3-pack. Temple has played only three times and every game has been pretty wild w/ a 39-37 come from behind win over USF sandwiched in between losses to Navy (31-29) and Memphis (41-29). Tulane is just 2-4 w/ the L5 games all going Over the total. The fewest number of total points scored in a Green Wave game the L4 weeks has been 71! But they’ve been up against some pretty great offenses and that’s not really the case here. The last three games have seen Tulane face Houston, SMU and Central Florida, three of the top offenses in the American. The Green Wave certainly didn’t get a ton of stops in those games, but the defense has been very good at generating a pass rush (2+ sacks in every game besides Navy, who really doesn’t throw) and Temple really struggled in pass protection LW vs. Memphis. The Green Wave were just blitzed in the 2nd quarter by UCF last week (gave up 27 points) but really weren’t that bad otherwise (crazy as that may sound). They also shut out Navy for a half earlier in the season. The strength of the Tulane offense is running the football, but note Temple is allowing just 3.9 yards per carry. Tulane has scored a total of THREE defensive touchdowns the L3 games, so the offense isn’t as productive as those final scores might lead you to believe. The SMU game went to overtime and the game vs. Houston featured THREE non-offensive touchdowns. Take that “randomness” out of the equation, all of a sudden the games aren’t as high-scoring. Last year’s game was 29-21 (in favor of Temple) despite Tulane running for 200 yards. I expect both defenses to step up here. 8* Under Temple/Tulane |
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10-25-20 | Bucs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 48 m | Show |
9* Under Bucs/Raiders (4:05 ET): This was originally supposed to be the Sunday Night game, but had to be moved due to COVID-19 concerns with the Raiders. In a terrible turn of events, Las Vegas may be without its ENTIRE starting offensive line this week! That’s a horrible situation no matter the opponent, but this week the Silver and Black happen to be facing a defense that is giving up a league-low 282 YPG and is second in sacks with 22. Do not expect the Raiders to do much scoring in this one. Take the Under. Every Raiders’ game this season has gone Over this season (your result vs. Buffalo could vary) and the Over is 7-0-1 the L8 meetings w/ the Bucs, including that Super Bowl debacle when Jon Gruden was coaching AGAINST them. But given the situation that Las Vegas is in here, you certainly expect those trends to be bucked this week. The Raiders like to run the ball, but behind a makeshift O-line that’s going against the top run defense in the league, they aren’t about to have much success doing so. Tampa Bay was a HUGE winner for us last Sunday (Game of the Month) as they crushed the Packers 38-10. It was the fourth time in the last five games they held the opponent to 20 points or less. If they can keep Aaron Rodgers to just 107 yards passing, imagine the nightmare Derek Carr is in for as he tries to throw the ball behind a bunch of backups. The Bucs won’t score that many points this week, simply because they won’t have to. Last week, they had a pick-six and a one-play TD drive after another INT, so 38 pts was misleading. In terms of pace of play, these are two of the slowest teams in the league. 9* Under Bucs/Raiders |
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10-25-20 | Panthers v. Saints UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 122 h 41 m | Show |
9* Under Panthers/Saints (1:00 ET): Coming out of a bye is usually considered a luxury, but not if you’re NOT healthy. New Orleans will be without both their starting WRs this week as Michael Thomas is still injured and Emmanuel Sanders tested positive for COVID. This is a Saints team that’s trailed by double digits each of its last two games, both of which were against losing teams (Detroit, Chargers). Whether the injuries cost them a win this week remains up for debate, but I do think that for the 1st time this season we’re about to see a Saints’ game stay Under the total. Carolina comes in at 3-3, which is better than most would have expected. They were favorites for the first time last week, but lost 23-16 to Chicago and really it wasn’t that close as they got their only TD in the 4th quarter. They were held to a season-low 303 total yards and for the 4th time this season were held to 23 points or fewer. On the bright side, the Panthers’ defense has been steadily improving, holding the L4 opponents to an average of just 19 PPG. They gave up only 261 total yards to the Bears last week, which was the second time in three weeks they allowed less than 300. I don’t think the Panthers are going to move the ball on the ground very effectively in this game as the Saints defense remains very stout against the run, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry. Remember Carolina lost RB Christian McCaffrey for the season, which is a very big deal! New Orleans knows Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater well (he played for them LY) and hopefully Bridgewater can provide insight to his own defense on how to stop Drew Brees & the NO offense. These NFC South rivals do have a history of going Over against one another, but this could close as the highest O/U line for one of their games since 2016. The only other time since then we’ve seen a total of 50+, it ended up being a 12-9 final. 9* Under Panthers/Saints |
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10-24-20 | Justin Gaethje v. Khabib Nurmagomedov UNDER 4.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
7* Under Gaethje/Nurmagomedov (4:15 ET): This is the main event of UFC 254, a lightweight title unification bout scheduled for five rounds. Even if you don’t follow the UFC regularly, you probably know the name Khabib Nurmagomedov due to his feud and subsequent victory over Conor McGregor. He is 28-0 and widely considered the best fighter in the entire world. Even though Justin Gaethje should be considered a worthy challenger, Nurmagomedov is still listed as more than a 3/1 favorite. Although Nurmagomedov does have 10 victories by decision, three of those came very early in his career and only one time have we seen him go a full five rounds. All we are looking for here is the fight NOT to go to the judges and by simply taking the Under 4.5 that means a stoppage by EITHER fighter is a win for us. Yes, eight of Nurmagomedov’s last nine fights have made it to round three. But it is quite likely that eventually his chain wrestling simply overwhelmes Gaethje, earning another victory. Something to consider is that Nurmagomedov has lost just ONE round in 12 UFC fights! Gaethje is a bit of a “wild card” in this bout as 20 of his 22 wins have come via stoppage. Nine of those have come in the first round, including three of his last four wins. So if Gaethje does “shock the world” Saturday afternoon, it isn’t likely to be by decision. Stylistically, these fighters couldn’t be more different as Gaethje has spent just 1% of his time in the Octagon on the mat while Nurmagomedov spends almost 50% of his time there. Eventually one of the fighters (likely Nurmagomedov) is going to exert their will over the other and this will end before the final bell rings, probably in Rd 3 or 4. 7* Under Gaethje/Nurmagomedov |
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10-24-20 | Alabama v. Tennessee UNDER 66 | Top | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Alabama/Tennessee (3:30 ET): Alabama is one of only two teams in the country that’s played at least four games and has yet to see an Under. While an offense averaging 48.5 PPG (#2 in the country behind Texas, who is the other 4-0 Over team) has been a driving force, the Crimson Tide’s defense has surprisingly given up an average of 28.8 PPG, which is very high for a Nick Saban outfit. Of course, that number of PPG allowed is still heavily inflated by the Ole Miss game (where the Tide allowed 48 pts). The other three games have seen them allow no more than 24 and I think we’re in store for an Under this week. This rivalry, played annually on the third Saturday of October, has not gone well for Tennessee in recent years. Their last win came back in 2006 (here in Knoxville), which was the year before Saban took over Bama. The Tide have been ranked in the top 8 for each of the last 12 meetings and incredibly this will be the 10th time under Saban they’ve been ranked #1 or #2 when facing Tennessee (were #1 each of the last four years). The Vols have had all sorts of trouble scoring on Saban’s defense, never scoring more than 21 and getting held to an average of just 12.3 PPG! Tennessee comes into this year’s matchup averaging just 23.5 PPG after it was held to only 7 points by Kentucky last week. It was the second week in a row they lost and were held below 300 total yards. They turned it over seven times during that stretch. Bama’s defense is going to get better on third down, it could rain Saturday afternoon in Knoxville and this is the highest total (by a lot) for any Tennessee game this season. For Alabama, only the Ole Miss game had a higher O/U line. While Bama can definitely score, if they are up big in the 2H, they’ll take their “foot off the gas” as per usual. 10* Under Alabama/Tennessee |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State UNDER 68 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Arkansas State comes into this weeknight Sun Belt showdown at 3-2 SU overall on the season. They are off their 1st conference win, a wild 59-52 shootout against Georgia State, which took place last Thursday. That was a real back & forth game where neither team led by more than 7 points. It was not just the second straight game that Ark State scored 50+, it marked the second time in three games that they gave up 50+! The Over is 4-0 their L4 games. Appalachian State hasn’t played in almost a month due to COVID-19 cancellations. Their last game, which took place on Sept 26, also saw them hang 50+ points. But it was against a FCS opponent (Campbell). The last time App State faced an FBS opponent, which was Marshall, they lost 17-7. Their only other game was a 35-20 win over Charlotte in the season opener. The Mountaineers haven’t covered one game all year (0-3 ATS) as they head into their conference opener Thursday night. This is the highest O/U line for any of their games thus far. Most are going to expect a high-scoring affair here. But these teams’ offensive numbers are both somewhat inflated due to facing a FCS opponent. Expect there to be a bit of a “fire” lit under the Arkansas State defense as the coordinator was fired shortly after the Georgia State game. Appalachian State very well could be rusty on offense after such an unusually long layoff. In three road games, Arkansas State hasn’t scored more than 35 points and twice they were held below 25. They are 12-5 L17 Under as an underdog. App State is allowing only 19.3 PPG. 10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State |
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10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* Under Rays/Dodgers (8:08 ET): For the first 3 ½ innings of Game 1, our Under bet was looking pretty good. It was a scoreless tie entering the bottom of the 4th, but unfortunately the Dodgers would then “erupt” for eight runs over the next three innings, ensuring not only victory but an Over as well. Not that the Dodgers aren’t a capable team offensively (they led MLB in scoring during the regular season!), but that aforementioned “explosion” (of runs) we saw last night was largely tied to the curious decision by Rays manager Kevin Cash to let Tyler Glasnow throw 112 pitches, the most by any Rays starter all season. Cash will certainly have a much shorter “leash” with Game 2 starter Blake Snell. I say this not just because Snell has yet to pitch a full six innings this year (5 IP or less in 10 of 15 starts), but also the Rays’ top three relievers - Anderson, Castillo, Fairbanks - were not used at all last night. With tomorrow being an off-day, you can expect to see that trio ASAP in tonight’s game. Snell was pulled early in his last start, despite four shutout innings (did allow a walk & single to start the 5th). He’d previously allowed just one run in 5 IP in his first of the two ALCS starts vs. Houston. Tampa Bay hit just .201 collectively in the ALCS and that number drops to .183 when you factor out Randy Arozarena. Over the L10 games, they have scored more than four runs just one time and that was when they scored five in a Game 3 win over the Astros. They have not had more than eight hits in any of their L10 games. Over 70% of their runs scored this postseason have come via the home run, which is unsustainable. Unless they can get to Tony Gonsolin early tonight, it should be more struggles at the plate. Gonsolin is likely to be on an even shorter leash than Snell here as Dave Roberts will probably treat this as a “bullpen game.” 10* Under Rays/Dodgers |
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10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
10* Under Rays/Dodgers (8:09 ET): The Under hit in all but one of the seven games in the ALCS (Game 6 when I had the Over!). The Rays only hit .201 for the series against the Astros, averaging 3.6 runs per game. But an exemplary pitching staff combined to allow just 3.1 rpg. One key thing that I noticed over the course of the ALCS (and many others have certainly noticed!) is that TB doesn’t score much when they’re not hitting home runs. Other than Randy Arozarena, the Rays hit a collective .183 in the ALCS. The Dodgers scored the most runs in baseball during the regular season. Over the course of the NLCS they scored 39 runs, but that number is very misleading as they had one game w/ 15, 11 of those coming in one inning. The Rays’ pitching staff, with a very solid bullpen, is very comparable to Atlanta. Starters aren’t asked to go very long. Game 1 starter Tyler Glasnow has gone six innings twice, the longest outings by any Rays starter this postseason. Glasnow’s ERA is up over his L3 starts, but he generally doesn’t put many runners on base. He also had a 12-0 TSR in 12 starts before losing his lone LCS start. The Dodgers were held to 4 runs or fewer in 4 of the 7 NLCS games. The Rays scored more than 4 in only one ALCS game. Clayton Kershaw, who was chased in his only NLCS start, is getting the Game 1 nod and we all know his career postseason numbers aren’t great. But despite the Dodgers hitting lots of homers in the NLCS, Globe Life Field has been pretty “pitcher friendly” all season. The Rays didn’t play here during the regular season. Kershaw has a 2.44 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in 13 starts. He should be fine. Don’t see many runs being scored in Game 1. 10* Under Rays/Dodgers |
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10-17-20 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas UNDER 76 | Top | 21-33 | Win | 100 | 54 h 17 m | Show |
9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas (3:30 ET): When Lane Kiffin was hired to be the head coach of Ole Miss, you had to figure there wouldn’t be many dull Saturdays in Oxford. But even by Kiffin standards, these first three games have been pretty insane (especially last week’s). There have been 86, 83 and 111 pts scored. However, some context should be provided as they’ve faced two top five teams (Florida & Alabama) plus the one win (over Kentucky) went to OT. Still, that’s a lot of scoring. The Over is obviously 3-0 in Ole Miss games. It was thought that by playing an all-SEC schedule this year, Arkansas would be having many LONG Saturdays. However, the Razorbacks seem to be vastly improved as they’ve won at Miss State and should have won at Auburn last week. Being 3-0 ATS (also covered vs. Georgia) is a nice way for HC Sam Pittman’s own SEC tenure to begin as they hadn’t seen many league wins in Fayetteville in recent years. Prior to Pittman taking over, the Hogs had lost 19 in a row in conference play. This is the highest total on the board this week in College Football, which I can’t say surprises me. But the Ole Miss’ offense can’t possibly keep putting points on the board like it has and this is an obvious flat spot after the Alabama loss. The defense can only improve and facing one of the weaker SEC offenses is the perfect prescription. Arkansas is only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games. For a game to go Over this number, Ole Miss needs a suitable “dance partner” and the Razorbacks are simply NOT that team. 9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas |
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10-17-20 | Bayern Munich v. Arminia Bielefeld OVER 3.75 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 43 h 3 m | Show |
8* Over Bayern Munich/Arminia Bielefeld (12:30 ET): It was a real shocker when Bayern, the class of all of European soccer, took a loss so early in the Bundesliga campaign. Back on September 27th, they fell 4-1 at the hands of Hoffenheim. To be fair, they were just three days removed from winning the UEFA Super Cup so perhaps that was a hangover. Right before the International Break, the Bavarians took another scare but were able to outlast Hertha Berlin 4-3. They now have 13 goals in three Bundesliga matches. Recently promoted Arminia Bielefeld has been more competitive than expected through its first three matches. They opened by drawing a very good Eintracht Frankfurt side, then beat FC Cologne 1-0. Finally, they tasted defeat at the top flight when they fell 1-0 to Werder Bremen. The lack of scoring in Arminia’s games should come as no shock to anyone that followed them last season when they won the 2. That said, they won’t be able to maintain that kind of save percentage this season, especially Saturday against the standard-bearers. It has been said that Bayern Munich seemingly scores goals for “fun.” While no Arminia Bielefeld game has seen more than two total goals scored, they are in for a “rude awakening” here on Saturday. Bayern should easily get three, if not four and send this one Over themselves. If Arminia can score, which they very well may given Bayern’s defensive lapses, then this is a lock to go Over. Scoring is way up across all Euro leagues this season and this one continues the trend. 8* Over Bayern Munich/Arminia Bielefeld |
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10-17-20 | Navy v. East Carolina UNDER 57 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
8* Under Navy/East Carolina (12:00 ET): Last week marked the first time Navy played a “good” full 60 minutes of football. Their first win, 27-24 over Tulane, saw them have to battle back from a 24-0 halftime deficit. So it had to feel good to lead the whole way against Temple, even if the Midshipmen needed to stop a late 2 pt conversion for the win. Still, let’s not pretend “all is well” in Annapolis. The Middies were still outgained LW (407-299) and their two losses this year have come by a total of 85 points. East Carolina had its own problems the first two games (gave up 100 points!) but finally got into the win column LW with a 44-24 win over USF, who looks to be as bad as any team in the American Conference this season. Last week marked the first game this year that the Pirates didn’t turn the ball over (had 7 TO’s first two weeks). Like Navy, I don’t expect things to go as well offensively here as they did a week ago. ECU cannot again expect to the beneficiary of four scoring drives that start in opposing territory, which is what happened against USF. With these teams having combined to go 7-0 Over, it’s a little surprising that the total has come down. But this is a high O/U line for Navy. The previous high was last week (51.0) and none of their games have seen more than 60 pts scored. All of East Carolina’s games have been high-scoring, but like Navy, they look to control the clock. The Pirates actually lead the American in time of possession. Navy’s run game is not as effective as it’s been in years past (3.5 YPC) and they are averaging less than 260 total YPG. This will be a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 8* Under Navy/East Carolina |
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10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
10* Over Astros/Rays (6:07 ET): None of the ALCS games so far have gone Over. We’re looking at a 5-0 Under mark and going back to the LDS, the Rays are 7-0 Under their L7. During that time, Tampa Bay is hitting just .174 as a team (yet has managed to go 5-2!). But the lack of hitting seems to be catching up on them as the L2 days have seen them fail to eliminate the Astros, losing 4-3 in both games. I feel we’re going to get that “elusive” Over tonight as this series has certainly seen plenty of home runs. Five of the seven runs scored in last night’s game came via the home run. The Rays hit three, but all were solo shots! Of course, a home run is what decided the game as Houston’s Carlos Correa “called his shot” and walked off in the bottom of the ninth. The Astros now have six home runs in the L3 games of the series. They’ve homered in every game this postseason besides the first one. They’ve got 21 HR’s in 11 games, hitting multiple in seven of the last nine. The one run they scored off Blake Snell in Game came via the long ball. Remember that Snell had allowed three HR’s in his lone LDS start against the Yankees. Tampa Bay has homered in all but two postseason games and six multi-HR games. They homered against Framber Valdez in Game 1. If only we could have some runners on base when these homers are being hit, we would have seen multiple Overs in this series! I know Game 1, which had the same exact starting pitching matchup as tonight (Valdez vs. Snell), was a 2-1 final. But we’ve seen six or seven total runs scored in each of the L4 games. Finally, the Astros and Rays get over the “scoring hump” tonight as both bullpens have seen heavy usage and may be running out of gas. 10* Over Astros/Rays |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Coastal Carolina is much improved this season as they have averaged a Sun Belt best 44.3 PPG during a 3-0 start. QB Grayson McCall, who has completed 67% of his pass attempts thus far while averaging a stunning 17.3 yds per completion, has added a passing dimension that the offense clearly lacked last season. But if it feels like the Chanticleers’ offense has overachieved thus far, that’s because it has. Now it’s set to face the Sun Belt’s best defensive and overall team, Louisiana. Look for CC’s offense to be slowed down in this one. The key for Coastal Carolina’s offense so far has been leading the country in time of possession (they play at a very slow tempo) and converting at what is an unsustainable rate on third down (6th in the country). Enter the Louisiana defense which was tops in the SBC a year ago and returned eight starters. So far the Ragin Cajuns are giving up less than 21 PPG in regulation and they are very good on third down. Coastal Carolina’s offense lacks explosiveness and hasn’t faced a defense this good all season, so yes, their numbers are set to come down pretty dramatically. Both teams are going to look to run the ball Wednesday night, so look for that clock to always be moving. Louisiana’s offense has been disappointing so far as it has averaged just 26.3 PPG in regulation. Since upsetting Iowa State in the opener, the Cajuns were very nearly upset themselves each of the L2 games. Coastal Carolina is also improved on the defensive side of the ball as they have 26 TFL and a Sun Bet-leading 13 sacks. Look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Under Chargers/Saints (8:15 ET): The Under has not been a popular bet either of the L2 weeks on MNF. You had the Chiefs taking on the Ravens and the Falcons facing the Packers. In the case of the latter, it was the league’s worst defense facing the top offense. Yet both times the Under hit and I’m proud to report I was on it both times. With the record amount of scoring we’re seeing across the league, more opportunities to take the Under are going to open up and for the 3rd week in a row on MNF, this is one of them. New Orleans is 4-0 Over this season. Entering Week 5, the Texans were the only other team that could claim a perfect Over mark this season and their game (vs. Jacksonville) stayed Under yday. Now that game has no real bearing on this one, obviously. However, it did illustrate that a team isn’t going to go Over (or Under) every game and sometimes all it takes is the “right” opponent. The Chargers were 3-0 Under through three weeks before last week’s wild 38-31 loss to Tampa Bay. The Chargers, who are starting a rookie QB (Justin Herbert), still only average 20.8 PPG. They actually gained just 324 yards last week, but had a defensive score + two long Herbert TD passes. Not a lot of sustained drives from them. They have injuries in the backfield (at RB). The Saints’ defense has held all four opponents under 400 yards and the Lions gained just 281 on them last week. The Saints’ offense, which will again be w/o WR Michael Thomas, hasn’t looked as good as you might think despite scoring 30+ pts in 3 of 4 games. 10* Under Chargers/Saints |
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10-12-20 | Braves v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
8* Over Braves/Dodgers (8:05 ET): If you don’t give up any runs, you can’t lose. The Braves have taken this old adage to heart with FOUR shutouts in their five postseason wins. Impressive as that achievement may be, some context must be provided. They faced the worst offensive team in the playoffs (Reds) and then the lineup that had been shut out more times (Miami) than any other this season. Now, in the NLCS, they’ll be matched up with the only team that has scored more runs than they have, that being the Dodgers. Los Angeles, like Atlanta, is also an unbeaten 5-0 this postseason. They’ve rolled through the Brewers and Padres, scoring 30 runs in the process. As alluded to above, these were the two highest scoring teams in baseball during the regular season. The Dodgers average 5.8 runs per game while the Braves aren’t far behind at 5.7. Interestingly, both clubs have exceeded their YTD runs per game average only twice each in the playoffs. While I don’t expect both teams to score 5+ runs in Game 1, I do think one will. Game 1’s two starting pitchers (Max Fried and Walker Buehler) have combined for a 21-2 team start record this season and neither has dropped a decision. So something will have to give in that department. Expect one (or both) to have a bit of “shaky” outing tonight. Fried allowed 4 runs vs. Miami his last time out, which was the only Braves’ game to go Over this postseason. Buehler also lasted just 4 innings in his last start and had 4 walks. The Dodgers’ closer situation remains unsettled going into this series. 8* Over Braves/Dodgers |
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10-10-20 | Alan Baudot v. Tom Aspinall UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 47 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Baudot/Aspinall (8:35 ET) - This is a heavyweight fight scheduled for three rounds. Don’t look for it to go very long. Tom Aspinall is a heavy favorite here and likely to end things quickly, however, the safer bet is to take the Under (1.5 rounds). That way we win no matter who finishes who. Aspinall is certainly an intriguing prospect in the Heavyweight Division. He’s got size, athleticism and most importantly, some serious knockout power. He took a few years off to try boxing, but since returning to the world of MMA he’s gone 3-0 with none of the fights lasting longer than 81 seconds! His UFC debut took place back in June and lasted just 45 seconds as he TKO’d Jake Collier. Aspinall’s penchant for short fights is nothing new. All eight of his professional victories have ended in Round 1! His two losses both ended in Round 2. Alan Boudot is a natural Light Heavyweight, so it will be interesting to see what his strategy is here against a larger opponent. He’s going to be a lot faster than most fighters Aspinall has faced previously. This is Baudot’s UFC debut and like Aspinall he has a history of quick fights. Six of his nine career bouts have ended in the 1st round. Durability and stamina is a legit question mark for both of these fighters and with the respective histories of such short fights, I don’t see any way this one makes it past the halfway point of Round 2. It’ll likely be over in less than five minutes. 8* Under Baudot/Aspinall |
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10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia UNDER 60.5 | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
9* Under NC State/Virginia (12:00 ET): These two ACC rivals have combined to play five games so far and all five have gone Over the total. Dating back to last season, each team is on an impressive run of Overs. The Over is 6-1 in NC State’s L7 games (3-0 this season) and it is 8-0 in Virginia’s L8 games (2-0 this season). But UVA’s point totals from the first two games are a little misleading as there has been a lot of “garbage time” scoring for a variety of reasons. I think this game bucks the trend. Take the Under. Virginia has scored just 17 points in the first three quarters of both games so far. Against Duke, they were the beneficiaries of SEVEN turnovers. Two of those seven came late in the game and were converted into touchdowns after excellent starting field position (one drive was just 10 yards). Last week vs. Clemson, they got a garbage time TD w/ 1:11 remaining, when trailing 41-17. They also scored right before the end of the first half. Not that I’m complaining mind you, as I had the Hoos +28 (in what was a wire to wire cover). UVA QB Brennan Armstrong has done much better than I had expected in “replacing” do-everything Bryce Perkins. But I still think the Cavaliers’ scoring output is misleading. While the Hoos have won nine in a row in Charlottesville, I don’t necessarily expect them to roll here. If they do, it may be because of the defense. They’re allowing just 2.8 YPC so far and last week NC State could not run the ball effectively (2.1 YPC) despite upsetting Pitt on the road. This will be the highest O/U line for either team YTD and the L2 times the Under hit for the Wolfpack, the number was 58+ pts. This is the highest O/U line for Virginia in an ACC game in a LONG time. 9* Under NC State/Virginia |
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10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Lakers/Heat (9:05 ET): Despite all the injuries, Miamii isn’t going to roll over in this series. They took Game 3 outright, as a 9.5-point dog, by a score of 115-104. They were led by Jimmy Butler’s triple double, which included 40 points. Such an effort places Butler in some pretty rarefied air as it was only the third 40+ point triple double in Finals history. Bam Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4 (so he could play) while Goran Dragic is still doubtful. The Lakers are 3-0 SU off a loss in the playoffs, winning all of those games by at least six points. If you go back to my Game 1 analysis, there was a discussion of O/U results from the Conference Finals. For those that missed that, Overs ruled the day in the two series, going a combined 9-1-1. But so far, the Under is 2-1 in this series, including my correct call for Game 1. Granted, both Unders hit by the “skin of their teeth.” Game 1 stayed Under by three while Game 3 stayed Under by half a point. But a win is a win and I like the Under to hit again in Game 4. Miami has trailed by double digits in six of their last eight games. So I’m still a little skeptical of their chances of tying this series back up. But it’s a lot of points they’re getting. What I’m counting on is them NOT shooting better than 50% again as they have the L2 games. If you recall, their shooting declined throughout the Eastern Conference Finals. Look for the Lakers to “tighten the screws” defensively in this one as Butler won’t be going off again like he did in the last game. The Heat will get the job done defensively as well. 10* Under Lakers/Heat |
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10-06-20 | Astros v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
10* Over Astros/A’s (4:37 ET): It’s starting to look as if the Astros team we’re getting here in the playoffs is more along the lines of what we’ve seen from them in years’ past, as opposed to the middling club we saw in the regular season. Some of that can be attributed to the regular season being a relatively “small” sample size where most of their top hitters slumped. But having gone 3-0 against a pair of division winners so far in the playoffs, including a 10-5 come from behind win yday, indicates to me that Houston’s regular season numbers may not be all that relevant moving forward. Things were looking good early for Oakland in Game 1 as they jumped out to a 3-0 lead. But the bullpen, which has been so good this season, couldn’t hold on. The A’s burned through eight pitchers Monday and allowed 10 runs on 16 hits. On the bright side, the offense did make it three consecutive games w/ at least five runs. I do like the A’s chances today against Houston starter Framber Valdez, who gave up five runs in five innings when he pitched in this ballpark (Dodger Stadium) during the regular season. We probably need to talk more about the “neutral site” effect here in the LDS. This series is taking place in Dodger Stadium and as we saw yesterday - on a dry LA afternoon - the teams combined for six homers. Keep in mind the Dodgers hit the most HR’s in the league - by far - during the regular season. Weather conditions are expected to be similar today. Valdez, who struggled here on September 12th, allowed 2 HR in that aforementioned start. Oakland’s Game 2 starter Sean Manaea hasn’t started a game since 9/23 when he also allowed 2 HR’s Dodgers here in this park. Expect plenty more HR’s today and this one to go Over. 10* Over Astros/A’s |
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10-06-20 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
8* Over Marlins/Braves (2:08 ET): Given how few runs these NL East rivals allowed in the first round of the playoffs, you might think that an Over play for Game 1 of the LDS may seem a bit “crazy.” But keep in mind I won with the Under in last night’s Falcons-Packers game despite all the “evidence” pointing in the other direction. What MIami is likely to find out here is that not all lineups are as weak as the Cubs. The same holds true for Atlanta after they faced a historically bad Reds offense. Take the Over. Only the Dodgers scored more runs than the Braves in the regular season. Now Atlanta didn’t need many runs to oust Cincinnati in two games. That’s because they didn’t allow a single run! Game 1, a 13-inning affair, ended 1-0. Game 2 was a 5-0 shutout. That Game 2 output is more along the lines of what I am expecting today as the Braves come in averaging a solid 5.7 runs per game for the year. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara, who had little difficulty beating the Cubs, is going to be challenged more here by a lineup he somehow avoided the entire regular season. The Over is 16-6-5 for Atlanta after scoring 5+ runs their previous game. The Reds lineup that the Braves saw in Round 1 was even more putrid than what the Marlins saw in Chicago. Cincinnati had a historically low batting average (for a playoff team) and scored the fewest runs by non-HR means in the reg season. Yet they still had their chances against Atlanta, especially in Game 1 when Max Fried (who starts again today for the Braves) was on the mound. The Reds were 1 for 12 w/ RISP in that game and left 13 men on base. Fried allowed six hits and has struggled in the past vs. Miami w/ a 5.13 ERA in six career outings. Neither of today’s starters will find things to be as easy as it was in the previous round. 8* Over Marlins/Braves |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers UNDER 57.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Falcons/Packers (8:50 ET): Given how this NFL season is going, I admit taking the Under in this particular matchup does seem risky. The two teams are a combined 6-0 Over so far and Atlanta has the worst defense in the league (most points per game allowed) while Green Bay is averaging the MOST PPG on offense. But with everyone likely to be on the Over tonight, I’m going contrarian on the total. This is the highest O/U line for any Green Bay game in the L35 years. Take the Under. This will also likely close as the highest O/U line for any NFL game in the L2 seasons. Green Bay has scored at least 37 points in every game so far, a remarkable yet unsustainable achievement. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play! No team in NFL history had ever opened 3-0 SU while scoring 35+ points every game and never turning the ball over. The Packers are the first. But they have trailed in all three games. Despite starting a different O-line combination in every game, Aaron Rodgers has been sacked only twice. I just can’t see this continuing. Atlanta has gone Under in eight consecutive primetime games, so there is that. Both teams are banged up at the receiver position as Davante Adams is questionable and Alan Lazard out for Green Bay while both Falcons starting WRs (Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley) are listed as questionable. Those would be significant absences and obviously work to the favor of the Under as neither team has a lot of depth at WR. It won’t be easy, but look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Falcons/Packers |
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10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* Under Yankees/Rays (8:05 ET): Runs were pretty scarce throughout the 1st round of the MLB playoffs, but not for the Yankees, who put up 22 in two games at Cleveland. That was pretty shocking. Not only because the Indians had (statistically) the best starting rotation in MLB during the regular season, but also because of the fact the Yankees had the largest home vs. road split (when it comes to scoring runs) of any non-Rockies team in MLB history! There won’t be any “true” road games for the Yankees any more (this series is being played in San Diego), but it’s still not Yankee Stadium. Therefore, I’m on the Under in Game 1. We’ve got an outstanding pitching matchup tonight with Gerrit Cole going against Blake Snell. Cole was 7-3 in the regular season for NY (w/ a 2.84 ERA), then gave up only two runs to Cleveland in seven innings. He’s 4-0 his L4 starts having allowed only four runs in 28 IP! He’s allowed three runs or less in all but two starts in 2020 and 2 ER or fewer in all but four starts. I expect him to pitch very well again tonight. Blake Snell has also been on fire for the Rays. He too is off an outstanding four start stretch while looking dominant in the first round. His start vs. Toronto saw him go 5 ⅔ and allow just one hit (zero runs). Over his L4 starts, the last three of which have all stayed Under, Snell has allowed just four runs in 22 IP and three of those came in one start. Unlike Cleveland’s pitching, look for Snell to take advantage of the Yankees dramatic home vs. road scoring split. For the record, NY averages 4.6 runs per game on the road vs. 6.3 at home. It may not be Tropicana Field, but this is a road game. 10* Under Yankees/Rays |
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10-04-20 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
8* Over Cardinals/Panthers (1:00 ET): Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, the play on the field has largely been defined by Overs, which are 29-19 this season, tying the highest % of Overs through the first three weeks in the last 35 seasons! Furthermore, the average O/U line in the NFL this week is right around 50, which would be an all-time record. It is likely that this week will end up having the highest number of games w/ a total of 50+ in league history. This Arizona-Carolina clash is one of eight currently w/ a total of 50 points or higher. Despite all the Overs we’re seeing, someone forgot to “send the memo” to Arizona, who is one of only two teams in the league (Chargers are the other) not to have a single game go Over to this point. It’s not like QB Kyler Murray and company aren’t scoring. They’ve averaged 25.7 PPG and more than 400 YPG. However, turnovers really hurt them in LW’s surprise 26-23 home loss to Detroit. Two of Murray’s three INTs were in Lions territory. We know the Cardinals want to “play fast” and they shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball against the defense they face this week, provided they take care of it. Carolina has been a bit more competitive than expected this year. They are off their first win, 21-16 over the Chargers. But don’t go confusing the Panthers’ defensive effort from last week as a “good one.” They still allowed over 400+ yards, most of it coming through the air from a QB (Justin Herbert) that was making only his 2nd pro start. The first two games saw the Panthers allow 65 total points. The Over had been 7-1 in Carolina’s L8 games, dating back to LY, prior to last week. The Over has hit the last four times these teams have played including a 38-20 Carolina win last season. Arizona WR DeAndre Hopkins is a game-time decision here, but on the flip-side their secondary is missing both starting safeties. 8* Over Cardinals/Panthers |
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10-04-20 | Saints v. Lions UNDER 54 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
9* Under Saints/Lions (1:00 ET): This may seem like a risky bet given it involves the Saints, who have gone Over in all three games so far. But I have a bit of a feeling that this week may turn into a “tipping point” of sorts with NFL totals as the record-setting number of Overs (now 30-19-1 through Thursday) has resulted in a record-setting average O/U line for Week 4. Half of today’s games have totals in the 50’s, including this one, which is one of the higher numbers of the week. I’m going Under on this one. New Orleans won’t have WR Michael Thomas in the lineup Sunday and that’s key because right now the Saints are LAST in the league with only 283 yards from receivers. TE Jared Cook will also be out. The lack of a downfield passing game is a big reason why New Orleans has dropped consecutive games since 2017. Even when the Saints scored 34 points in the season-opening win over TB, that was misleading. They had a pick-six and were set up on short fields by several other Bucs’ turnovers. The Under is 9-4 the Saints’ L13 October games. Detroit is off its first win of the year (26-23 at Arizona), but the offense has struggled to move the ball the L2 weeks, averaging just over 300 YPG. They don’t run the ball very effectively and the Saints’ defense is very good at stopping the run. Save for the 4Q vs. Chicago and the Green Bay game, the Lions defense has played pretty well this year. They have led in all three games, so I don’t see them letting this one get out of hand. I know these teams have a history of high-scoring games against one another, but this one bucks the trend. 9* Under Saints/Lions |
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10-03-20 | Dequan Townsend v. Dusko Todorovic OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
6* Over Townsend/Todorovic (10:40 ET): This is a middleweight fight, scheduled for three rounds. While it may not go the distance, it doesn’t have to as all the oddsmakers are calling for is a fight that makes it halfway through Round 2. I think it’ll easily get to that point as I’m on the Over 1.5 rounds here. The undefeated Dusko Todorovic is 9-0 as he’s set to make his “official” UFC debut Saturday night. He had to withdraw back in July when he was scheduled to fight John Phillips. Replacement Khamzat Chimaev certainly made the most of the opportunity Todorovic afforded him there. Todorovic’s last official fight was part of Dana White’s Contenders Series, 14 months ago as he outlasted Teddy Ash by decision. That’s his only fight since 2018. With it being his UFC debut off such a long layoff, expect a cautious start from the Serbian. Dequan Townsend is 21-11 in his career and this will be his 4th fight for the UFC. Interestingly enough, it will be his 1st UFC fight where he is NOT a replacement for someone else! To this point, he’s been unsuccessful in the UFC (0-3) so with his spot in the promotion likely on the line here I don’t expect him to throw “caution to the wind” either. Townsend doesn’t go down easy as only two of those 11 losses have been by stoppage (nine via decision). All three UFC fights have made it to Rd 3 and two were decisions. 6* Over Townsend/Todorovic |
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10-03-20 | Georgia Southern v. UL-Monroe OVER 49 | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe (7:00 ET): These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this year. Furthermore, going back to last season, both are 4-0 Under the L4 games. But this Sun Belt matchup is a bit unique this week in that it feels quite conducive to an Over. Louisiana Monroe’s defense is obviously horrible (35.3 PPG allowed), especially against the run, which is Georgia Southern’s specialty. After dealing with some serious coronavirus issues in the early going, Ga Southern is now as healthy as they’ve been. LA Monroe has a legit claim to being the worst team in the entire country right now. The L2 wks have seen them lose to Texas State and UTEP (both of whom are also in that “worst team discussion”) by 21 and 25 points - at home. They also have a 37-7 loss to Army, which is notable because of the similarities between the Army and Ga Southern offenses. The Warhawks are allowing 263 YPG on the ground at 5.3 yards per carry, and they’ve already allowed 11 rushing TDs. Ga Southern has 476 yds on the ground in two games and should move the ball at will tonight. While Ga Southern figures to do most of the “heavy lifting” scoring-wise in this contest, we’ll also need La Monroe to score a couple touchdowns as well. They’ve scored just 30 points in three games thus far, but were a stunning 0 for 11 on third down vs. UTEP last week. Fortunately for the Warhawks, the Ga Southern defense is allowing opponents to convert on 46% of third down opportunities. Also QB Colby Suits is completing two-thirds of his pass attempts so far. Look for this to be BOTH teams’ highest-scoring game to date. 9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe |
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10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
8* Under Heat/Lakers (9:05 ET): With injuries mounting, the only chance for the Heat in Game 2 is to crank up the defense. Fortunately, they are more than capable of doing just that. After getting blitzed by a red hot Lakers’ shooting spree in the 1H of Game 1, Miami did settle down on the defensive end after halftime. It was “too little, too late” though after the Lakers made 56% of their FG attempts in that first half. The game still stayed Under though and with the Lakers’ shooting projected to decline, Game 2 should as well. In my analysis for Game 1, I pointed out the fact that the Over was a combined 9-1-1 in the two Conference Finals series. The one Under (in LAL-DEN Game 2) cashed by a single point. That clearly had an effect on the Game 1 total for this series, which I said was “too high.” Well, it opened right at the same number for Game 2. We’ve already seen it “trickle down” some (sign of sharp money?), but it’s still too high for all the reasons stated prior to Game 1. These are two solid defensive teams! The Lakers ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency during the regular season. I said Miami wouldn’t come close to matching it’s 56.5% shooting from Game 6 vs. Boston and they didn’t even come close (42.7%). You’ll recall that the Heat’s shooting started to decline throughout the Eastern Conference Finals, prior to the close out game. Now they are dealing with numerous key injuries. The Lakers aren’t going to shoot as well in Game 2 as they did in Game 1 and in fact the Under is now 16-7 in the Lakers’ L23 games off a SU win. 8* Under Heat/Lakers |
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10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU UNDER 60 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 2 m | Show |
10* Under La Tech/BYU (9:00 ET): It’s only two games in, but BYU has blown past the oddsmakers’ expectations thus far. The Cougars, now ranked #22 in the country, have beaten Navy 55-3 (were -1) and Troy 48-7 (were -14.5). In two games they've exceeded the pointspread by 77 points. Since 1978, no team has exceeded the pointspread by more than 85 points in the first three games. Predictably, BYU now finds itself a big favorite for Week 3 as they welcome fellow unbeaten Louisiana Tech to Provo. Louisiana Tech was a nice winner for us two weeks ago. In their season opener, the Bulldogs went to Hattiesburg and upset favored Southern Miss 31-30 w/ a last minute TD. It was far easier last week against FCS Houston Baptist, whom they defeated 66-38 while rolling up 542 total yards, including 182 on the ground. But it won’t be that easy to move the ball this week. BYU has allowed only 10 points this season and an average of just 165 YPG. Don’t look for the team from Ruston to top 30 points in this one. Now La Tech slowing down this BYU offense may be more of a challenge. Brigham Young has gone over 600 yards in both games and has scored over 100 points! But that sort of production simply can’t continue. BYU had 19 days off between the Navy and Troy games, so let’s see how they perform on a short week for the 1st time. This O/U line has moved considerably and while both La Tech games so far have gone Over, the Under is 10-3 the Bulldogs L13 road games. The Under is 20-8 in BYU’s L28 Friday games. 10* Under La Tech/BYU |
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09-30-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 218 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Heat/Lakers (9:05 ET): LeBron James has advanced to his 10th NBA Finals and will face one of the two franchises he previously led to a championship! Miami making it this far has definitely raised some eyebrows, but they have enjoyed an incredible postseason where they’ve only been beaten twice in regulation (both times by Boston). They’ve yet to trail in any series and are 12-3 SU/ATS in all playoff games. However, it should be pointed out they trailed by double digits in 4 of the 6 games vs. the Celtics. The Lakers are also 12-3 SU in the playoffs, but just 8-5 ATS. Interestingly, two of their three losses have come in Game 1’s. They opened the Portland and Houston series with a loss and both times were held below 100 points. It was a different story vs. Denver in the Western Conference Finals, but the Lakers had a big edge in rest for that Game 1 and the Nuggets, quite frankly, aren’t very good defensively. That the Lakers have started slow in two of the three series is notable to me. In terms of efficiency, Miami is the strongest defensive foe LA will have faced so far in the playoffs. Watch for that “trademark” Heat zone. Of course, the Lakers can be quite stingy too. They ranked 3rd in the regular season in defensive efficiency. Needless to say, Miami isn’t shooting 56.5% from the field again like they did vs. Boston in Gm 6. These teams met just once in the regular season. The Lakers won 113-110 with the game easily going Over the 211.5-pt total. You’ll note this O/U line is several points higher. That may have to do with the fact the Over was nearly perfect in the two Conf Finals series (9-1-1). The time off that both teams have had, plus the Lakers propensity for some Game 1 “clunkers” has me on the Under here. This number is higher than every game in either Conf Finals. 10* Under Heat/Lakers |