Jack's Free Pick Friday: Seattle Mariners -132

I like the spot for the Seattle Mariners Friday.  They had Thursday off while the Toronto Blue Jays were completing a series in Los Angeles.  The Mariners will have the rest advantage, and they are playing the much better baseball coming into this one.

The Mariners are 18-6 in their last 24 games overall.  They are showing they have a much more potent offense this season scoring at least 4 runs in 19 of those 24 games.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game on the season which ranks 5th in baseball.  The Blue Jays are scoring 3.9 runs per game which ranks 25th.

Luis Castillo is coming off his best two starts of the season allowing one earned run and 9 base runners in 12 innings.  Castillo has allowed just 4 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Toronto.

Kevin Gausman has faltered here of late allowing 10 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Gausman has allowed 6 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 innings in his last two starts against Seattle.  Bet the Mariners Friday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins/White Sox OVER 8

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 24-12 OVER in all games scoring 4.4 runs per game but ranking dead last (30th) in baseball allowing 6.2 runs per game.  The OVER is 18-6 in Marlins last 24 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 19 of those 24 games.

The Chicago White Sox and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in 9 of their last 13 games, including 9 runs or more in 8 of them.  This total of 8 is too low for the way these two teams are trending right now.

Max Meyer has struggled mightily in his last two starts for the Marlins allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 21 base runners in 9 innings.  Bryse Wilson is 20-22 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in his career, and 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Yankees/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 10.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 10.5 ticket between the Yankees and A's tonigth.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, a Triple-A park in Sacramento that is the temporary home of the A's this season.

The Yankees are scoring 5.6 runs per game which is the 2nd-best mark in baseball.  They will certainly hang a big number on the A's, who have gone 11-7 OVER in all home games this season.

Will Warren is 1-5 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 12 starts and one relief appearance in his career.  He is only starting for the Yankees this season due to injuries to their rotation.

Osvaldo Bido is 2-2 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in seven starts this season with just 21 K's in 36 1/3 innings.  Regression has hit Bido hard in recent start allowing 13 earned runs and 6 homers in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Angels OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Orioles and Angels tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  The Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own.

Kyle Hendricks went 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 24 starts and five relief appearances in his final season with the Cubs last year.  The Angels took a chance on him this year, and not surprisingly it's blowing up in their face, and it's only a matter of time before he is sent down to the minors.  Hendricks is 1-3 with a 5.28 ERA in six starts this season allowing 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 30 2/3 innings.

Tomoyuki Sugano has held his own with a 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in seven starts for the Orioles.  But he's a contact pitcher with just 21 K's in 39 innings, so he is clearly due some regression.  The Angels have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last five games and should get to him tonight.  

The OVER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 13 games, and 11 or more combined runs in seven of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-115)

The Detroit Tigers are one of the best teams in baseball that nobody is talking about.  The Tigers are 25-13 this season scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 3.3 runs per game.  Their +83 run differential is far and away the best mark in baseball.  The Tigers are 13-3 at home as well.

The Rangers are 18-20 overall including 6-12 on the road.  They are scoring just 3.2 runs per game which ranks 28th in baseball.  Only the Rockies and Pirates have been worse.  The Rangers have a -20 run differential on the season.

The Tigers have a big advantage on the mound tonight that should have them winning this game by multiple runs.  Tarik Skubal won the 2024 AL CY Young by going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.92 WHIP and 228 K's in 192 innings.  He has picked up where he left off, going 3-2 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven starts this season.

Patrick Corbin is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He posted a 5.20 ERA or worse and started at least 31 games in each of his last four seasons in Washington.  Corbin has a 1.50 WHIP in five starts this season and is very fortunate to have a 3.28 ERA.  His luck will run out today.  Bet the Tigers on the Run Line Friday.

15* Dodgers/DBacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -125

The Los Angeles Dodgers will want revenge from a 5-3 loss to the Diamondbacks in Game 1 of this series yesterday.  The Dodgers are 9-3 in their last 12 games while scoring a total of 90 runs in those 12 games for an average of 7.5 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.

The Dodgers should hang a big number on Eduardo Rodriquez, who is 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Rodriquez has allowed 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles.  He has allowed 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.

Roki Sasaki is living up to the hype for the Dodgers in his first season.  Sasaki is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in seven starts this season and is the much better starter in this matchup.  Bet the Dodgers Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9.5

The Dodgers are 9-3 in their last 12 games while scoring a total of 90 runs in those 12 games for an average of 7.5 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own.

The Dodgers should hang a big number on Eduardo Rodriquez, who is 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Rodriquez has allowed 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles.  He has allowed 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.

While the Dodgers rank 3rd in baseball scoring 5.5 runs per game, the Diamondbacks are not far behind ranking 6th in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game.  Roki Sasaki is pretty fortunate to have a 3.86 ERA in his seven starts this season considering he has a 1.45 WHIP and has been putting runners on base regularly.  Both bullpens are pretty taxed right now as well, especially Los Angeles.

This has been an OVER series.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last seven meetings and 9-2 in the last 11 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in nine of those 11 meetings.  The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have combined for at least 11 runs in seven of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-115)

The San Diego Padres had yesterday off while the Colorado Rockies were playing a double-header with the Detroit Tigers.  That rest advantage is a big reason I'm on the Padres for Game 1 of this series Friday night.

The Tigers mopped the floor with the Rockies yesterday.  They won 10-2 in Game 1 and 11-1 in Game 2 to outscored the Rockies 21-3 and absolutely tax their bullpen in the process.  Add to that their 8-6 loss in extra innings on Wednesday, and this Colorado bullpen is extremely taxed.

The Rockies are 6-31 this season scoring just 3.1 runs per game and allowing 6.1 runs per game.  Their -109 run differential is far and away the worst mark in baseball.  The Padres are 23-13 this season scoring 4.0 runs per game and allowing 3.2 runs per game.  They have a +29 run differential on the season.

The Padres will crush Antonio Senzatela, who is 1-5 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in seven starts this season with just 17 K's in 34 1/3 innings.  Senzatela has allowed 21 earned runs and 8 homers in 24 2/3 innings in his last five starts.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Friday.

15* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Rockies OVER 11

The weather has been great in Colorado this week which is a big reason they are 3-0 OVER in their last three home games combining for 14, 12 and 12 runs with the Tigers.  It will be perfect again Friday night with temps in the 70's and light winds blowing out to center inside the most hitter-friendly park in the majors in Coors Field.

Two gas can starting pitchers will both get rocked today.  The Padres will crush Antonio Senzatela, who is 1-5 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in seven starts this season with just 17 K's in 34 1/3 innings.  Senzatela has allowed 21 earned runs and 8 homers in 24 2/3 innings in his last five starts.

While I expect the Padres to do the heavy lifting today, the Rockies should be able to get to Randy Vasquez as well.  Vasquez has allowed 10 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Vasquez has allowed 10 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rockies as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Thunder/Nuggets ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Denver Nuggets are a tired team.  They needed Game 7 to put away the Clippers, and they had just one day in between series.  They rode their momentum into a double-digit comeback win over the Thunder in Game 1 in the final minutes.  Their tired legs showed in Game 2 as they were blasted 149-106 by the Thunder.

Now they just have one day of rest in between Games 2 and 3 again.  They won't be recovered in time, and their lack of depth is really going to hurt them as this series goes on.  The Thunder showed off their impressive depth in that 149-106 win in Game 2.  Eight different players scored in double-figures.  For the Nuggets, Russell Westrbook is their only reliable weapon off the bench, and starter Michael Porter Jr. isn't giving them much as he plays through a shoulder injury.

The Thunder go from 10.5-point favorites in Game 2 to only 4.5-point favorites in Game 3.  As we've clearly seen in these playoffs, home-court advantage isn't worth that much.  This 6-point adjustment for flipping home courts is too much.  The Thunder just have all the advantages in this series as they are the fresher, deeper, better team.  I'll gladly lay 4.5 points with them in what I expect to be another blowout tonight.  Bet the Thunder in Game 3 Friday.