Alex Smart
Where winning means everything! Get the info the books do not want you to have.
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Fighting Picks (+276) 8-7 L15 53%
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Free picks
The number is 62, give or take a half, and I have been staring at totals long enough to know when the market is selling a shootout that is not coming, Montreal is 8-1 with 321 scored and 247 allowed, 35.7 a night, Ottawa is 0-9 with 207 for and 322 against, 23.0 scored and 35.8 given up, add those two offenses and you get 58.7, that is already under this number, 35 plus 23 is 58, you need 63 to cash, and you are asking a winless club to find four extra points they have not shown in a month.
Davis Alexander just dropped 34-13 on these same Redblacks, 22 of 30 for 420 and three scores, 47 total points, the man is around 3,140 yards, 10.4 yards an attempt, 24 balls of 30-plus, two picks on 303 throws, that is a 0.7 percent pick rate, Jake Maier is 246 of 352, 69.9 percent, 2,680 yards, 12 and 11, he can fill a box score, he cannot stop the bleeding, they also played 37-35 in June, that is 72, so you have one track meet and one mismatch, anybody betting 62 is betting the June game comes back, I am betting the 47 does.
League-wide the CFL loves to hang 62 when a star quarterback meets a last-place defense, the public sees Alexander and a unit giving up 35.8 and slams the over like it is a sure thing, what they miss is the blowout script, big-spread games die in the fourth, the favorite kneels, the dog stops scoring, Montreal is 7-2 to the over because they score, Ottawa is 4-5 on totals, last five finished 54, 62, 47, 70 in overtime, and 57, that is three unders and one overtime gift, they scored 21 last Friday and 13 the last time this defense saw them, that is not a 35-point night.
Simple math, 321 minus 207 is a 114-point season gap, 35.7 plus 23.0 is 58.7 against a 62 board, last meeting was a 21-point beating and the total was buried at 47, a 12-and-a-half favorite that actually covers usually kills the over, rest plus a bye after hanging 48 on Edmonton is a Thursday night sit-on-it game at Molson, not a fireworks show, I am on the under, that is the play.
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers vs Pirates | Tigers +138 | Premium | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Miami sits 64-62, Philadelphia 68-58, four games in the loss column and they still want you to lay the wood, the number is Marlins plus-109 to plus-114, that is about 48 percent implied, Sandy Alcantara is 13-7 with a 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 170.2 innings, 130 punchouts, 46 walks, 6.9 K/9, that is a horse, Aaron Nola is 4-9 with a 5.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 130 innings, 138 punchouts, 46 walks, he still misses bats, he also leaks runs, 5.33 is not a Citizens Bank mirage, it is a season-long bleed.
Alcantara has been eating innings, Nola has been giving them back, 13 wins versus 4, 40 extra frames, almost two full runs of ERA, league-wide you fade the name when the ERA does not match the reputation, August home chalk gets hammered, short road dogs with the better arm have been a live ticket for years, this is not a fade of a juggernaut, this is a fade of a 4-9 arm the public still treats like 2018 Nola.
Simple math, plus-110 is risk 100 to win 110, implied 47.6 percent, 3.43 versus 5.33 is a 1.90 run gap, 1.17 versus 1.45 is 0.28 extra baserunners an inning, you only need this to be a coin flip and the juice is already on your side, I am not laying a dime on the chalk here, I am taking the plus money, that is the play.
The number is 8 at PNC, Detroit at Pittsburgh on Wednesday, and I have been fading 8s in this park long enough to know when the market is late, Paul Skenes is 9-11 with a 3.88 ERA, that is the number people quote, the better numbers are FIP 2.99, xFIP 3.20, xERA 3.11, 166 punchouts in 134.2, 11.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 30 percent K rate, 6.7 percent walk rate, 0.94 HR/9, BABIP sitting .306, so the ERA is running almost a full run worse than the estimators, that is luck and sequencing, not a guy who suddenly forgot how to pitch.
At home it gets cleaner, 3.44 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 12.15 K/9, FIP 2.45, xFIP 2.72, that is the version you get at PNC, the last two months have been ugly, velo down, walks up, they even bumped this start for extra rest, FIP still lives in the high 2s and low 3s while the ERA ballooned, that gap is why 8 is still too high, Jackson Jobe is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in 8.2 innings, FIP 5.62, eight strikeouts, two walks, two homers, 20.5 percent K rate, he threw five scoreless at San Francisco then got hooked after 3.2 with six earned and two bombs against the White Sox, that is a kid back from Tommy John, not a rotation ace.
League-wide an ace at home with a FIP under 3.00 and a total of 8 has been a grind for the over for years, PNC still kills fly balls in the afternoon, the public sees plus-128 Tigers and a 6.23 ERA and thinks crooked numbers, what they miss is 2.99 FIP versus 5.62 FIP and a park that has been swallowing baseballs since they built the place.
Simple math, 3.88 minus 2.99 is almost a full run of ERA inflation, 11.1 K/9 versus 8.3 K/9, 8 means you need nine to cash, if Skenes goes six at a 2.72 home xFIP and Jobe gets stretched after four you are already playing catch-up on the total, I am on the under, that is the play.
SERVICE BIO
Experience & Awards
I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.
My picks have been documented for 22 years.
I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.
I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.
I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.
Handicapping Approach
I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.
My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
Sports Betting Is An Investment
Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.
Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.
I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.
In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.
I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!
This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!
Money Management
To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.
If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.
This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.
Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.
1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.
2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.
3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.
4. Dont Buy off the hook on key numbers.(long term bettors) For weekend warriors use your discretion
5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.
6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.
These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.
I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).
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