PICK - Mets/Phillies UNDER 7.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 910

I was on the wrong end of the UNDER in last night's Mets/Phillies game, as deGrom had his worst start of the season. That's not going to scare me away from playing the exact same bet tonight. I just don't see these two teams being able to generate much offense with the talent we will have on the mound for both teams. 

The Mets are going to send out Seth Lugo, who has been outstanding since making the switch from the bullpen to a starter. Lugo has a 2.65 ERA in 4 starts and a 2.63 ERA in 13 appearances overall. He's been every bit as good as the numbers suggest, as he owns a sharp 2.75 FIP and even better 2.25 xFIP. 

Phillies counter with ace Aaron Nola, who has a 2.40 ERA and 0.888 WHIP in 9 starts. Like Lugo the advanced numbers back it up. While his FIP is slightly higher at 3.10, he's got a sensational 2.43 xFIP. Another thing with Nola is he's been even better at home with a 1.57 ERA and 0.641 WHIP in 5 starts. 

UNDER is 3-0-1 in Lugo's 4 starts and 4-1 in Nola's 5 home starts. this season. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

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40* BLUE JAYS/YANKEES MLB STEAMROLLER (Yankees -1.5, -115)

I got no problem backing the Yankees on the -1.5 run line. New York is prime form right now and will have a red-hot starter going in Masahiro Tanaka. Yankees followed up their 20 run outburst on Tuesday with 13 more in yesterday's win. They have now outscored the Blue Jays 33-8 in the first two games of this series. 

New York should have no problem securing their 8th straight win. Tanaka has a respectable 3.16 ERA in 8 starts and owns a strong 2.76 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Tanaka has also owned Toronto with a 2.87 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 21 career starts. 

The Yankees lineup will be up against Blue Jays' starter Chase Anderson, who has a 5.81 ERA in 7 starts, 9.00 ERA in 2 road starts and a 8.48 ERA in his last 3 outings. Give me the Yankees -1.5 (-115)! 

50* BENGALS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 43.5)

If you have been following my NFL for awhile, you know that I'm pretty big on the OVER in these Thursday night games. People just haven't caught on to how much the lack of rest impacts the play on the defensive side of the ball. 

Factor in how bad the Browns and Bengals looked offensively in Week 1 and I think we are getting big time value with the total at 43.5. I know Cleveland has Garrett, but the Browns defense is no where near as good as the front Cincinnati last faced in the Chargers. Burrow also flashed some in that game and you have to like a guy that makes plays when it matters late. 

As for the Browns poor showing, they just went up against a really good Baltimore defense. Cleveland was able to run on the Ravens and should move the chains on the ground against a Bengals defense that won't have their best guy up front in Geno Atkins. Cleveland also has a bunch of guys hurt on defense. Play the OVER 43.5! 

40* HEAT/CELTICS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Celtics -2) 

I played and won with the Heat as a small dog in Game 1, but I will fire back with Boston in Game 2. It didn't look great for Miami in the majority of Game 1. They trailed by 8 after the 1st quarter and were down 12 going into the 4th quarter. Jimmy Butler hit two crazy shots or the Celtics probably win that game. 

I look for Boston to build up another big lead in Game 2, expect this time they hold on for the win. Celtics are one of the best at defending the 3-pointer and Miami shot a scorching 44.4% from deep in Game 1. I think Boston makes some defensive adjustments and tired legs could come into play after all those minutes in Game 1. Give me the Celtics -2!