40* LOYOLA MARYMOUNT/MINNESOTA NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Loyola Marymount +14) 

This is an interesting situation that I feel presents some value with the underdog. Minnesota and Loyola Marymount will be playing against each other for the second time in 3 days, as these two played each other on Friday at Minnesota. There's a Covid rule with the state that only allows the Gophers to play one opponent at home over a 3-day stretch, so that's why they are playing the Lions again. 

This situation presents itself in the NBA and there's usually value with the team who lost the first meeting. It makes sense. It will be tough for Minnesota to get up for this game having already beat this same team a couple days ago. As for Loyola, they should be fired up for this one. The Lions more than proved to themselves that they can hang with this Gophers team. They only lost by 15 and that was with Minnesota shooting over 50% from behind the 3-point line and Loyola -8 in the turnover department. Give me the Lions +14! 

50* TEXAS ST/MISSISSIPPI ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Miss St -6.5)

I think we are getting an exceptional price here on the Bulldogs as a single-digit favorite against the Bobcats. Mississippi State comes in 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS, which has definitely created this buy-low spot. I was on Clemson in their opening loss and wasn't shocked they fell to Liberty, who has shown on multiple occasions it can hang with the middle of the pack in the Power 5. 

It's also important to note that while Mississippi State lost and failed to cover in each of their first two, they were in both of those games and could easily be 2-0. Texas State has played no body. If anything there's reason to be pessimistic with them only beating Texas A&M CC by just 12 points. I look for the size and athleticism of the Bulldogs to be too much for the Bobcats to handle. Give me Mississippi State -6.5!

40* ST. JOHN'S/BC NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Boston College PK)

I think we are getting a great price here with Boston College at only a pick'em against St. John's. The Red Storm are 2-0, but have been far from impressive with a mere 76-75 win over St. Peter's and a 82-65 win against La Salle. Both of which rank outside the Top 150 for me. 

BC is a team I had my eye on coming into this year and while they are just 1-1 to start, they have looked the part of a team on the rise. The Eagles gave Villanova all they could handle before eventually losing by 9 (67-76). They put that loss behind them and the very next day beat a good Rhode Island team 69-64. 

I also think turnovers could play a big role in this one. St John's has not taken great care of the ball, as they are averaging 18 turnovers/game. A mark that's high given the talent they have played. Eagles only average 12.5 turnovers. Give me the Eagles PK! 

PICK - Indiana/Providence UNDER 143
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 844

I'm going to take my chances with the UNDER 143 in today's enticing afternoon matchup on the college hardwood, which has Indiana taking on Providence. The game will be played on a neutral court in Asheville, NC at the Harrah's Cherokee Center. 

Neutral courts typically lead to lower-scoring games, as both teams are adjusting to a new environment. Providence is 17-7 (71%) to the UNDER in 24 neutral court games with a total of 140 to 149.5 under head coach Cooley. UNDER is also 13-5-1 (72%) in Friars last 19 neutral site games as a dog. 

UNDER is 11-3-1 (79%) in Indiana's last 15 vs a good team that has won 60% or more f their games (I'm pretty confident Friars will win at least 60% this year) and 8-2 in their last 10 off a win. 

Hoosiers were 26th last year in Adjusted Defense and 206 in pace of play. Providence was 27th in adjusted defense and 171 in pace. Give me the UNDER 143! 

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50* SEAHAWKS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 48.5) 

I wanted to take Seattle, but I just don't feel like laying a touchdown on the road with this Seahawks team. Seattle has lost each of their last 3 road games, two of which they went off as the favorite. 

The good news is, I see a ton of value with the OVER at less than 50. In Seattle's 5 road games 4 have seen a combined score of at least 54 points with 3 going for 63 or more. Only exception was at LA vs the Rams. 

It's a combination of how great this Seahawks offense is and how poor the defense has been. There's so much talent across the board with the Seattle offense and I just feel this Eagles defense is better suited to stop the run. 

I know Wentz has been awful and there's talk that Hurts is going to get a long look, I think they can get something going here at home against this Seattle defense. Seattle is giving up 30.4 ppg, 450 ypg and 6.5 yards/play on the road this season. Give me the OVER 48.5!