Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick: LSU Tigers +17.5

I'll take my chances with LSU as a 17.5-point underdog against No. 1 Georgia. I think you really have to question the motivation of the Bulldogs going into this game. No matter how this game goes, Georgia is getting an invite to the 4-team playoff, especially with USC's loss in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Winning an SEC title is a big deal, but not so much when a National Title is at stake. The only goal the Bulldogs should have is to stay as healthy as possible for the playoffs. 

They were in a similar spot lost year against Alabama and they just weren't on their game in a 24-41 loss. Keep in mind they came back and beat the Crimson Tide 33-18 to win it all. If they aren't going to go all out in the SEC title game against Alabama, I can't imagine they will against LSU. 

On the flip side, I know there's some disappointment for the Tigers, given last week's lost to Texas A&M probably cost them a spot in the playoffs. I just think it means more to them to win this game. What bigger statement for Brian Kelly than in his first year after coming over from Notre Dame he leads LSU to a SEC title. He's certainly got his team to perform in big games up to this point. 

All of this and we are getting 17.5 points. Give me LSU +17.5! 

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9* NCAAF UCF/Tulane AAC ATS MASSACRE: UCF Knights +4

*Analysis Coming* 

10* NCAAF K-State/TCU Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH : Kansas State Wildcats +2.5

I'll take my chances with K-State as a 2.5-point dog against TCU in the Big 12 title game. TCU is a good football team, but they are very lucky to be 12-0 right now. They have trailed in the 2nd half of the majority of their conference games. Yes, they destroyed Iowa State 62-14 last week, but that was more of the Cyclones not showing up to play. That defense had been too good all season to just give up 60+ points. 

One of the teams TCU pulled a rabbit out of its hat was a game at home against Kansas State earlier this season. K-State had 28 points before the halfway point of the 2nd quarter and were up 18 points. They somehow didn't score again the rest of the game and ended up losing 28-38. The only other two losses for the Wildcats were a shocking 10-17 loss at home to Tulane and a 27-34 loss at home to Texas. K-State could very easily be 11-1 and knocking on the door of the playoff. 

Offensively TCU has a slight edge, but the Wildcats have the better defense and will be much better prepared for the Horned Frog attack. They say defense wins championships and if that holds true, K-State should win this game. I believe they will. Give me the Wildcats +2.5! 

9* NCAAF ACC Championship VEGAS INSIDER: North Carolina Tar Heels +7.5

I'm going to take the 7.5-points with North Carolina in Saturday's ACC Championship Game against Clemson. I just feel that there's too much value here with the Tar Heels catching more than a touchdown on a neutral site. 

I really question how motivated the Clemson players are for this game. I know Dabo is saying how important this game is, but this is still a program that the very least expects to be one of the teams in the 4-team playoff. Not getting there with this year's team is a disappointment.

How much do they really care about winning another ACC title? I also have to think there's some kids in that locker room wondering if D.J. Uiagalelei is the answer at quarterback. For whatever reason Dabo's attached to him. Almost like he feels bad for the kid not delivering on expectations and wants to give him the shot to prove doubters wrong. Dabo can say he wasn't the problem in last week's loss to South Carolina, but he was a dismal 8 of 29 (27.6%) for a mere 99 yards. I'm also not so sure freshman Cade Klubnik is that much of an upgrade if they go to him. 

Not saying they won't be able to move the ball, I just don't believe they will be able to exploit this North Carolina defense as much as people think. 

As for the Tar Heels, even after losing their last two games, I got to think they will be extremely motivated for this game. UNC has never won this game since it was first played back in 2005 and their only appearance came back in 2015. Winning this game would be everything for head coach Mack Brown, as he's trying to take this program to that next level, where they aren't just competing for Coastal titles, but national titles. 

North Carolina also happens to have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Drake Maye. Last week South Carolina's Spencer Rattler threw for 360 yards against them. If you really take a close look at the schedule for Clemson, they really haven't been great against the better offensive teams. They gave up 45 to Wake Forest, 28 to Florida State, 35 to Notre Dame and then 31 to South Carolina. 

I think UNC has a great shot here to get into the 30s, which means it would probably take at least 40 for Clemson to even have a shot at cover. I don't think that's happening. Give me the Tar Heels +7.5!