As the 112th Grey Cup kicks off Sunday, at Princess Auto Stadium in Winnipeg, the Saskatchewan Roughriders (12-6) enter as -190 moneyline favorites and -3.5 point chalk against the Montreal Alouettes (+160), with the total pegged at 48.5. Saskatchewan punched its ticket with a gritty 24-21 comeback over the BC Lions in the Western Final, powered by Trevor Harris’ 305 passing yards and a defense that forced three turnovers while holding opponents to a league-best 22.6 points per game. Yet sharp bettors are fading the public money that has steamed the Riders from -1.5 to -3.5, leaning instead on Montreal’s proven pedigree as underdogs—covering in seven of their last ten in that role and riding rookie sensation Davis Alexander, who remains undefeated at 13-0 lifetime as a starter.

The Alouettes may have scraped by Hamilton 19-16 in the East Final, but their top-ranked secondary (341.9 passing yards allowed per game) is tailor-made to blunt Harris, and Alexander’s dual-threat mobility can exploit Saskatchewan’s aggressive front seven. CFL playoff history backs the close-call narrative: seven of the last ten postseason games have been decided by six points or fewer, while Saskatchewan’s kicker Brett Lauther has missed crucial field goals in three of their defeats, injecting late-game volatility. Montreal also boasts a 4-1 ATS mark on the road following a bye, and their clock-chewing run game sets up a grind-it-out tempo that has sent both teams’ recent playoff outings under the total.

That defensive tone screams value on the under 48.5, especially with the combined semifinal and final outputs tallying just 80 points. Still, the sharpest edge lies with the Alouettes +3.5 (-110). At a neutral-site key number of 3, Montreal gets too much cushion for a battle-tested squad projected to fall 26-23 in a one-score affair. Take the Alouettes to cover and consider the under as a correlated parlay leg—both trends point to a low-scoring, razor-thin Grey Cup classic.

The New York Rangers host the Detroit Red Wings on Sunday night at Madison Square Garden in what shapes up as a classic low-scoring grinder, making the Under 6 goals at -110 a sharp play. Both clubs rank among the NHL’s stingiest defensively...New York surrendering a league-best 2.2 goals per game while Detroit sits eighth at 2.7...and their November 7 meeting produced a tidy 5-goal total in a 4-1 Rangers win. Igor Shesterkin, sporting a .909 save percentage that climbs to .915 at home, faces Ville Husso (.910 SV%) in a matchup that projects for a combined .910 stop rate on roughly 60 shots. Recent trends reinforce the lean: unders have cashed in 12 of the Rangers’ 19 games and 9 of Detroit’s 18, including 5 of 8 at MSG where the average total sits at 4.9 goals. With both teams on the tail end of back-to-back...New York fresh off a 2-1 shootout win over Columbus and Detroit licking wounds from a 5-4 overtime loss to Buffalo I expect conservative, structured hockey that keeps the scoreboard quiet. My projections peg the expected total at 5.4 goals (2.7 apiece), leaving ample cushion under the 6-goal line even if Detroit’s Larkin-Raymond duo or New York’s Panarin find the net. Fade the public nudge toward the Over and bank on another tight, defensive battle in Manhattan.

Play under

The NFC's heavyweight clash in Philadelphia tonight isn't just a potential Super Bowl LIX preview—it's a bettor's dream loaded with exploitable trends. Detroit arrives as 3.5-point underdogs despite an 8-1 record and the conference's top point differential (+112), riding a scorching 7-1 ATS run in underdog spots since 2023. Dan Campbell's aggressive play-calling takeover has transformed the Lions' offense into a perfectly balanced machine: their 44-22 demolition of Washington featured touchdowns on all eight possessions with exactly 33 runs and 33 passes, while Detroit now ranks top-5 in both rushing success rate (48.2%) and explosive play rate (12.1%). Jared Goff's precision (20 TDs, 3 INTs) faces a Philly secondary that's elite against completion percentage (58.9%, 3rd) but vulnerable to chunk plays when pressure...Detroit's offensive line has allowed pressure on just 28.1% of dropbacks (5th-best), setting up Goff to exploit the middle of the field where Philly ranks 22nd in DVOA against intermediate routes.

Meanwhile, the Eagles' bend-but-don't-break identity has produced six one-score wins in seven games, but their 2-4 ATS mark in games decided by 7 points or fewer exposes a critical flaw: they're 0-3 ATS this season when allowing 20+ points. Jalen Hurts' interception avoidance (one in nine games) is historic, yet his 6.8 yards per attempt ranks 28th among qualified QBs, and Philly's offense has generated just 18.2 points per game over their last five contests. Detroit's defense, meanwhile, forces a turnover on 14.2% of possessions (4th) and has held opponents under 20 points in six straight games. . Take Detroit +3.5 and the under 47.5; Campbell's squad covers in 78% of games following a 20+ point victory, and this matchup screams 27-23 Lions upset.

Play on the Lions to cover

This is a strong opportunity to lay the points, as the San Antonio Spurs (-8) are the clear standout value play on Sunday's slate, hosting the slumping Sacramento Kings  San Antonio enters the contest with a commanding 8-4 record and a strong home court presence (5-2 SU), driven by the elite two-way dominance of Victor Wembanyama, who is averaging 26.2 PPG, 12.9$ RPG, and is the league leader with 3.6$ BPG. The Kings, meanwhile, are mired in a five-game losing streak and rank among the league's worst in defensive efficiency, allowing over 118 points per game, a weakness Wembanyama and the Spurs' offense are perfectly positioned to exploit. The betting trends heavily favor the home side, as the Kings are just 1-5 ATS on the road and have failed to cover in 7 of 10 games as underdogs. While both Wembanyama (left calf tightness) and Kings star Domantas Sabonis (left ribcage contusion) are listed as questionable, my predictive models already project a decisive Spurs victory, forecasting a 122-110 type final score that comfortably covers the spread, solidifying the pick on the side.

Play on the Spurs to cover

In the early-season clash between the USF Bulls and Kennesaw State Owls, the betting total sits at 179.5, tempting the public with visions of a high-scoring affair fueled by USF's blistering temp..ranked 15th nationally at 74.8 possessions per game..and Kennesaw State's gaudy 102.7 points per game from exhibition blowouts. But sharp bettors should fade the noise and hammer the under, as this matchup screams efficiency trapdoor in a neutral-site feel at Kennesaw's Convocation Center. USF, now 1-0 under tempo maestro Bryan Hodgson, boasts a top-100 adjusted offensive PPP of 103.5, elite 65.7% two-point shooting (18th nationally), and a stingy defense that forces 19.2% turnovers while allowing just 0.88 PPP in transition per early data....yet their 28.3% three-point clip (299th) caps any explosive ceiling. Kennesaw State, meanwhile, enters 0-1 after managing only 61 points in regulation against FIU despite hot shooting, exposing a bottom-200 true offensive efficiency around 94.8 PPP, plagued by 21.8% turnovers (312th) and a fake-offense mirage from that 45-minute exhibition... they've scored 61.0 PPG in real games and gone 0-3 ATS in sub-70 possession contests over the last two seasons. Trends bolster the under case: Kennesaw is 8-2 to the under in its last 10 against top-50 tempo teams, USF is 6-1 under in its past seven neutral-site games and 9-3 under when favored by fewer than six points under Hodgson, while last year's head-to-head totaled just 141 (USF 72-69) and early-season neutral games with 170+ totals have hit the under 62% of the time (31-19) since 2023. My own pace-adjusted model projects 144 combined possessions yielding USF 81.8 points (73 possessions at 1.12 PPP) and Kennesaw 69.6 (71 at 0.98 PPP) for a 151.4 total—leaving a massive 21.1-point edge to the under even before variance. Play under 179.5 at -110 -(shop 179 or better ), with an alternate angle on Kennesaw's team total under 80.5 at +105 given they've topped 76 just twice in nine games against Power-6 foes. The public chases raw pace and inflated PPG; sharps know USF controls the clock, Kennesaw bricks in the half-court, and the under cashes comfortably by halftime or so my numbers suggest—confidence is in the higher echelons of what I consider to be CBB edges. .)

Play on the under

The highly anticipated neutral-site matchup between the No. 1 Houston Cougars and the Auburn Tigers presents a clear opportunity for sharp bettors, according to my calculated analytics and matchup scenarios..

 The defending national runners-up, are defined by its stifling defense, which ranks No. 2 nationally by holding opponents to just 58.3 points per game in points allowed per possession. This defensive identity translates directly into betting success, as coach Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars boast an exceptional f{8-2} ATS record as a road or neutral-site favorite and a 4-1$ ATS mark in their last five neutral-court games. While Auburn has offensive firepower, their prior struggles against elite defenses...shooting only 39\% in a loss to then-No. 15 Alabama..suggests they will face major difficulties scoring against Houston’s even tougher unit.  My projections have  Houston winning by a comfortable 9-10 points, lending confidence to the Cougars covering a line currently sitting around -6.5 to -7. Despite the risk of a fast pace from Auburn and a supportive home-state crowd in Birmingham, Houston's critical +8  rebounding advantage is expected to control the glass and slow the game down. The combination of Houston's historical ATS dominance as a favorite and Auburn's documented struggles against the highest level of defensive intensity makes Houston -6.5 to -7 a highly compelling bet.

Play on Houston to cover

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) hit the road as 3.5-point favorites (-110) against the red-hot Denver Broncos (8-2) in AFC West showdown at Empower Field at Mile High, with the defending champs fresh off a bye and desperate to climb back into the playoff picture while Denver rides a seven-game win streak and the league’s stingiest defense (17.3 PPG allowed). Andy Reid’s post-bye mastery is the headline trend: his teams are 22-4 straight-up in regular-season games following a bye, including 9-3 in Kansas City, and the Chiefs have covered as 3.5+ point road favorites in three of four tries this season, leaning on Patrick Mahomes (2,349 yards, 17 TDs) and a top-four scoring defense (17.7 PPG allowed). Denver counters with elite pressure (Zach Allen’s six sacks) but has been 0-3 ATS as home underdogs to division rivals in recent years, while rookie Bo Nix’s offense ranks bottom-third in EPA/play and has produced the NFL’s most three-and-outs; the Broncos have also surrendered the third-most yards to tight ends (320) since Week 7, setting up Travis Kelce for a big day after a 297-yard surge in the four games before the bye. Line movement from -3 to -3.5 reflects public money on the rested champs, and with Isiah Pacheco questionable but Kareem Hunt thriving in November road spots, Kansas City’s red-zone efficiency should exploit a Broncos front missing LB Alex Singleton. Take the Chiefs -3.5 (-110)—\

Play on KC to cover