Jack's Free Pick Saturday: BYU/Utah OVER 165.5

The Utah Utes are all offense and no defense this season making them the perfect OVER team.  They have gone 11-4 OVER in all games this season while ranking 96th in adjusted offense and just 206th in adjusted defense.

The Utes are a perfect 9-0 OVER in all home games this season scoring 87.6 points per game and allowing 82.2 points per game.  In their four most recent home games, they combined for 175 points with Arizona, 178 with Eastern Washington, 176 with Cal Baptist and 177 with Cal Poly.

BYU likes to run and gun ranking 48th in adjusted tempo and 20th in average length of offensive possession.  The Cougars do so extremely efficiently ranking 8th in adjusted offense.  They are scoring 88.2 points per game this season.

The Cougars are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall including 180 combined points with Arizona State and 190 with Eastern Washington.  Their most important defender in C Keba Keita (7.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG) is questionable to play tonight, and if he sits they will have to go very small.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

No. 2 Ranked Football Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has SEVEN Top-10 Football Finishes (#1 2024, #3 2018, #3 2017, #4 2009, #5 2014, #5 2012, #10 2008) to his credit! Jack has put together a MASSIVE 2160-1827 Football Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $148,650! That includes a 1482-1221 Football Run over his last 2703 plays! He backed it up by finishing as No. 1 Ranked Football Capper in 2024-25!

No. 2 Ranked NFL Capper All-Time! Jack has SIX Top-10 NFL Finishes (#3 2009, #4 2023, #4 2017, #5 2024, #8 2019, #10 2008) to his credit! He is riding a 645-516 NFL Run that has his $1,000/game players winning $71,860! That includes a 372-286 NFL Run since November of 2021! He delivered an 81-56 NFL Record two seasons ago and finished as the No. 4 Ranked NFL Capper in 2023-24 as a result! He followed it up with an 87-66 NFL Record last season to finish as the No. 5 Ranked NFL Capper in 2024-25 as well!

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15* Timberwolves/Cavs NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 239.5

NBA players aren't used to playing this early in the day.  This game will tip at 1:10 EST this afternoon.  Players will be sleep walking through the start of it, and it will take them a while to get going.  I love betting UNDERS in these early games as a result.

I also love betting UNDERS in quick rematches, which we have here.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Minnesota beat Cleveland 131-122 on Thursday in Minnesota, and now they will play each other again in Cleveland just two days later here Saturday.

Cleveland shot 53% as a team on Thursday and will not shoot that well again.  Minnesota shot 57% as a team and 20-of-38 (53%) from 3-point range, and that certainly won't happen again.  Coaches will make the necessary adjustments and the defenses will win out in the rematch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Packers/Bears NFC Wild Card ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Bears and Packers are both dead nuts OVER teams in their current form.  Both are very healthy on offense with two of the best offenses in the NFL when that's the case.  Both are very banged up on defense, and these are two of the worst defenses in the playoffs in their current state.

The books have adjusted this total down too much due to the weather report from an opener of 47.5 all the way down to 44.5 as of this writing.  The value is there to back the OVER, and I don't think the weather is going to be as bad as originally reported.  Temps will be in the 30's with 10-15 MPH sustained winds, and the wind direction is from goalpost to goalpost so it will actually favor offenses when they are downwind.  I expect both offenses to take advantage of that and be more pass-happy when they are with the wind.

The Packers felt they could trade away run-stuffer Frank Clark in the trade for Micah Parsons because they had an elite run-stuffer in DT Devonte Wyatt already.  But Wyatt is on season-ending IR and won't be back for the playoffs, and their run defense has been dreadful without him.  Their defense really took a turn for the worse when Micah Parsons tore his ACL in a Week 15 loss at Denver.

The Packers have allowed an average of 28.3 points per game and 391.5 yards per game in their last four games since losing Parsons.  Their run D was exposed when they allowed 307 rushing yards to the Ravens in Week 17.  The Bears want to run the football, and they will be able to against this patch work Green Bay defense.  NB Javon Bullard, LB Nick Niemann and DT Warren Brinson are all questionable, and they are thin in the secondary with CB's Hobbs, Melton and Hadden all on IR.

Chicago's defense has been torched the last three weeks for 384 yards against the Packers, 496 yards against the 49ers and 433 yards to the Lions.  They can't stop the run, either, allowing 192 rushing yards to the Packers and 200 to the 49ers.  They rank 29th in total defense at 361.8 yards per game, 29th at 6.2 yards per play and 29th at 5.0 yards per carry allowed.  They will be missing NB CJ Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT), CB Kyler Gordon and a pair of backups in LB Ogbongbemiga and DE Shoyinka.

The Packers have an elite offense when they are as healthy as they are right now.  Jordan Love is back from a concussion and has lit up opposing defenses in the playoffs in the past.  Love has a 23-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He has his top 4 weapons at receiver all healthy in Watson, Doubs, Reed and Golden.  RB Jacobs says he is as healthy as he has been all season and is in line for a monster game against this poor Chicago run D.

The Bears have been potent offensively all season ranking 9th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.5 yards per game and 9th at 5.8 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in rushing at 144.5 yards per game, and the two-headed monster of Swift and Monangai are in line for big games against this soft Green Bay Run D.  And that's why I'm not concerned about any weather because both teams will be able to move the ball on the ground at will.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Bears on offense this week with WR Rome Odunze (44 receptions, 661 yards, 6 TD) making his return from a 5-game absence.  The Bears have been without Luther Burden for a few games down the stretch, but he's healthy and ready to go now too.  The Bears are fully healthy on offense for the first time in a long time, and dangerous when that's the case.

The first meeting this season saw the Packers win 28-21 for 49 combined points in Green Bay.  Both teams were a lot healthier on defense than they are now for that first meeting.  Both teams were hampered with injuries in the 2nd meeting, a 22-16 (OT) win by the Bears for just 38 combined points.  Jordan Love went out early for the Packers and so did Josh Jacobs.  That left Malik Willis and a handicapped Green Bay offense.

Without Love, the Packers really struggled in the red zone going 0-for-5 scoring touchdowns setting for 3 field goals and a couple turnovers.  The Bears didn't have Odunze OR Burden for that game and were extremely handicapped as a result without their usual weapons.  They were held to 6 points until late in the game as a result before exploding at the end.  Despite the injuries, both teams moved the ball fine as the Packers had 384 total yards and the Bears had 400 total yards.  So it was actually a very misleading final that should have been higher-scoring.

Given the health of both offenses compared to the health and poor play of both defenses, this total of 44.5 is too short.  I also like the fact that these are two offensive-minded head coaches in Johnson and LaFleur, and they will empty out the playbook with this being the playoffs.  Whichever team is trailing will always be able to make a comeback and push the tempo if necessary.  And both offenses should be very efficient in the red zone being able to run the ball on these soft run D's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat -7.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They had their game against the Bulls postponed on Thursday due to condensation from a leak in the roof.  So they have had the last three days off and are champing at the bit to get back on the court.

The Heat are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only two losses coming to the Timberwolves, who are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  It was clearly a bad matchup for them.  They beat the Hawks by 15 and the Pistons by 6 in two road games during this stretch, while also rushing the Pacers by 26, the Nuggets by 24 and the Pelicans by 19 at home.

The Heat are as healthy as they have been all season as they have everyone available except perhaps Jaime Jaquez, who is listed as questionable.  Injuries are a big reason the Pacers are just 7-31 this season.  They are without Mathurin (17.8 PPG), Toppin (14.0 PPG) and Jackson (7.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG), plus Nembhard (17.2 PPG) is questionable.

This is a terrible spot for the Pacers.  They ended their 13-game losing streak with a 114-112 win at Charlotte last time out.  They took advantage of a tired Hornets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Now that they finally ended that losing streak, they will relax.  The Pacers are also a tired team not having consecutive days off since before Christmas.  The Heat will run them out of the gym similar to their 142-116 win over the Pacers on December 27th in their most recent meeting.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* CAA PLAY OF THE DAY on Campbell/Elon OVER 160

Elon is 10-4 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER in home games.  What makes the Phoenix such an OVER team is ranking 77th in adjusted offense but just 294th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 160 or more combined points with their opponents in 11 of their 16 games this season.

Campbell is the perfect OVER partner for Elon.  The Camels rank 51st in adjusted tempo, 157th in adjusted offense but just 249th in adjusted defense.  So these are two teams that are much better on offense than they are on defense.  The Camels are 9-6 OVER in all games this season finishing with 158 or more combined points in 11 of their 17 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Auburn ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 169.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off today when Arkansas visits Auburn.  This game has the makings of one of the biggest shootouts of the day, and it's a night game on National TV on ESPN so both teams will be extra amped for it.

Auburn is 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  The Tigers have an elite offense ranking 13th in adjusted offense but one of the worst defenses in the SEC ranking 106th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 170 or more combined points in four of their last five games overall, including 204 with Georgia and 178 with Texas A&M in their last two.

Arkansas is 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall going for 177 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Razorbacks rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 21st in average length of offensive possession and 12th in adjusted offense.  Calipari has the Razorbacks playing efficient offense at a break-neck pace this season.  

The Razorbacks have scored 85 or more points in six consecutive games, including against some very good defensive teams in Texas Tech, Houston, Tennessee and Ole Miss.  They are scoring on everyone, and they will hang a big number on this poor Auburn defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Davis/Cal Poly OVER 167.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in adjusted tempo, 8th in average length of offensive possession and 223rd in adjusted defense.  The Mustangs are 9-6 OVER in all games thsi season and coming off a 95-90 loss to Northridge for 185 combined points.

UC Davis is a dead nuts OVER team as well going 9-4 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 110th in adjusted tempo, 65th in average length of offensive possession, 133rd in adjusted offense and 212th in adjusted defense.  The Aggies are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 160 or more combined points in six of their last seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big West Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Northridge/Fullerton OVER 174

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Titans rank 7th in adjusted tempo, 5th in average length of offensive possession and 242nd in adjusted defense.  They are 9-6 OVER in all games this season and haven't gone to OT once.

Cal-State Northridge will gladly run with them.  The Matadors rank 10th in adjusted tempo, 19th in average length of offensive possession and 234th in adjusted defense.  They are 10-5 OVER in all games this season despite not once going to OT.  They are also 6-1 OVER in road games.  The books have failed to set this total high enough given how many possession will be in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Florida/Tulsa OVER 164.5

Tulsa is 9-4 OVER in all games this season including 4-1 OVER at home.  The Golden Hurricane rank 41st in adjusted offense but just 143rd in adjusted defense.  They are an elite shooting team ranking 20th in effective FG percentage (57.8%) and 5th in 3-point percentage (41.2%).

South Florida is 8-6 OVER in all games this season including 3-1 OVER in road games.  What makes the Bulls an OVER team is ranking 18th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession.  They are also a solid offensive team ranking 78th in adjusted offense.

What's keeping this total lower than it should be is both teams coming off games against teams that play extremely slow.  They both played North Texas in their last game and went under the total.  North Texas ranks 338th in adjusted tempo, 285th in adjusted offense and 34th in adjusted defense.  This game will play out much differently.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +18.5

You're paying a tax to back the Iowa State Cyclones now after opening 15-0 SU & 9-6 ATS this season.  That's especially the case after opening Big 12 play with a pair of wins and covers over West Virginia and Baylor, two of the worst teams in the conference.

Oklahoma State will offer some resistance here.  The Cowboys are coming off a 87-76 home win over UCF as 2-point favorites on Tuesday.  They have had the last three days off, while the Cyclones have only had the last two days off since winning at Baylor on Wednesday, plus the travel in between.

Few teams have dominated Iowa State like Oklahoma State has.  In fact, the Cowboys are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cyclones with one of those losses coming in OT.  Asking the Cyclones to beat them by 19-plus points to beat us is asking too much today.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/South Dakota OVER 172.5

Denver is a perfect 15-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last 12 lined games.  This total of 172.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 80th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 362nd in adjusted defense.  They are the 4th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

South Dakota is the perfect OVER partner for Denver.  The Coyotes rank 43rd in adjusted tempo this season and 341st in adjusted defense.  They play fast and they play no defense.

South Dakota is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall going for 185 combined points with St. Thomas, 182 with Kansas State, 182 with Prairie View, 185 with Wyoming and 176 with Northern Colorado.  This total of 172.5 is also short in a game involving the Coyotes right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big East Saturday Total DOMINATOR on St. John's/Creighton UNDER 156.5

Creighton ranks 231st in adjusted tempo and 46th in adjusted defense.  The Bluejays are much more of a defensive team this season with one of the worst offenses of the Greg McDermott era.  This is a very high total for a game involving the Bluejays, who are 11-5 UNDER in all games this season with 155 or fewer combined points in 11 of those 16 games.

St. John's is 10-5 UNDER in all games this season.  The Red Storm rank 21st in adjusted defense and are once again a dominant defensive team under Rick Pitino.  They are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall finishing with 155 or fewer combined points in seven of those nine games.

St. John's and Creighton have combined for 152 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 156.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston -3

Houston is battle-tested having faced the 76th-ranked schedule in the country with wins over the likes of Auburn, Notre Dame, Arkansas and Texas Tech.  The Cougars rank 27th in adjusted offense and 6th in adjusted defense and are once again one of the best teams in the country at 14-1 this season with more experience than they are even accustomed to.  Going into Baylor and coming out with a win today is no big deal to them.

Baylor has struggled time and time again when stepping up in class with four losses already to St. John's, Memphis, TCU and Iowa State.  They weren't very competitive in any of the four games with all four coming by 6 points or more, including a 10-point home loss to Iowa State on Wednesday.

What kills the Bears is they are a terrible defensive team ranking 84th in adjusted defense.  Houston is 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in its last three meetings with Baylor.  This is a short number to be laying for by far the superior team in this matchup today folks.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on DePaul +19.5

This is a terrible spot for the UConn Huskies.  They are coming off a 103-98 (OT) road win at Providence on Wednesday.  They have had just two days to recover, and they will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days here as well.  I expect them to be flat as a pancake hosting DePaul today.

The Blue Demons are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS this season, and I really like what they have done lately.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with consecutive home wins over Xavier and Georgetown, as well as a 5-point road loss at Villanova as 12.5-point dogs in their last three games.

The lone non-cover during this 7-game stretch came in a 72-54 home loss to UConn on December 21st as 12.5-point dogs.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge here just three weeks later.  The Huskies won't be motivated at all to beat this team by margin again.  Bet DePaul Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -3.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are overvalued now after a 15-0 start to the season.  They have played a home-heavy schedule and have played just two true road games all season.  This will be their toughest road game yet.

Indiana is 10-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.9 points per game.  That includes Big Ten wins over Washington by 10 and Penn State by 41.  It will be a very hostile atmosphere today with ranked, unbeaten Nebraska coming to town and there are few better home-court advantages than Assembly Hall when it's a big game.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Rams/Panthers NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Los Angeles -10

The Los Angeles Rams are the most complete team in the NFL.  They have the best offense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring offense at 30.5 points per game, 1st in total offense at 394.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  The Rams rank 10th in scoring defense at 20.4 points per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play allowed.

The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the playoffs, getting in with an 8-9 record by winning the tiebreaker in a 3-way tie with the Bucs and Falcons for 1st place in the NFC South.  The Panthers rank 27th in scoring offense at 18.3 points per game, 27th in total offense at 295.6 yards per game and 28th at 5.1 yards per play.  They have a mediocre defense at best ranking 19th allowing 5.6 yards per play.

I like the fact that the Rams went for it in Week 18 knowing that they needed a win to get to play the Panthers in the first round.  That's a big step down in class from the Eagles, who they would have had to face had they lost in Week 18.  They are in playoff mode, and now reinforcements are on the way in time for the playoffs.

WR Davante Adams (60 receptions, 789 yards, 14 TD) led the NFL in TD receptions despite missing the last three games.  The Rams were extra cautious with him and he was pissed off to not be playing down the stretch.  He will be extra motivated now in his return, and he will make a big impact on this offense.  Defensively, the Rams get back CB Quentin Lake (61 tackles, 1 INT, 10 PD) after he missed six games this season.  They are near full strength heading into the playoffs and one of the healthiest teams in the league.

The Panthers have a -69 point differential on the season.  That is the 3rd-worst mark in NFL history for a team that won its division.  They were blown out on the regular losing by 16 to the Jaguars, by 29 to the Patriots, by 31 to the Bills, by 10 to the Saints, by 11 to the 49ers and by 17 to the Seahawks.  Six of their nine losses came by double-digits.

The Rams have the 2nd-best point differential (+172) in the NFL trailing only the Seahawks.  They went 12-5 this season and all five losses were coin flip games.  Seven of their 12 wins came by 14 points or more, so they blew teams out on the regular.  And this game has blowout written all over it Saturday.

Yes, the Panthers upset the Rams 31-28 as 9.5-point home dogs on November 30th earlier this season.  But that was one of the coin flip games the Rams lost, and it was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  The Rams were -3 in turnovers and all three were killers.  They had a tipped pass intercepted in the Carolina end zone that took 7 points off the board.  Their very next drive, Stafford threw a Pick 6.  And when they were in FG range driving for the game-winning score, Stafford fumbled to end the game.  That was basically a 17-point swing at minimum in the Panthers' favor on those three turnovers.  That's not going to happen again.

What is repeatable is the Rams moving the ball up and down the field on this Panthers defense both on the ground and through the air.  The Rams rushed for 152 yards and 7.2 per carry on 21 attempts against the Panthers in that first meeting.  They also threw for 227 yards nd 7.6 per attempt.  They held the Panthers to 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground.  Carolina also went 3-for-3 on 4th down conversions in that first meeting, two of which resulted in 30-plus yard TD's. Literally everything went right for the Panthers, and they were still life and death with the Rams.  The cream will rise to the top in the rematch.

The Rams were also fat and happy going into that game against the Panthers in the regular season riding a 6-game winning streak with the last three coming against playoff contenders in the 49ers, Seahawks and Bucs.  I think they were flat in that game.  They won't be flat in the rematch, in fact they will be max motivated for revenge and with this being the playoffs.  Teams to lose to a non-divisional opponent in Week 12 or later and to face them again in the playoffs are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS covering the spread by an average of 7.2 points per game.

Sean McVay is 34-10 SU & 26-18 ATS as a road favorite with the Rams, including 27-6 SU and 19-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or more, and 19-2 SU & 12-9 ATS as a road favorite of more than 4 points.  McVay is also 18-11-2 ATS in road games in the Eastern time zone.  The Rams will mount a big lead early and be able to sustain it with their ground attack.  Bryce Young won't be able to make the plays to keep it close.  QB's making their first career playoff start like Young against a QB who has playoff experience are 20-39-1 ATS since 2002.  Bet the Rams Saturday.