Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Rays/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Toronto Blue Jays are heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in five of their last six games and 4 runs or more in 10 of their last 13 games with a low of 3 runs during this stretch.  The OVER is 9-1 in Blue Jays last 10 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 10 of their last 11 games coming in.

Zack Littell is 2-5 with a 4.40 ERA in eight starts for the Rays this season with just 30 K's in 47 innings.  Kevin Gausman hasn't been much better, going 3-3 with a 3.97 ERA in eight starts this season.  Gausman has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Tampa Bay.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

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15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays +151

We're getting great value on the Tampa Bay Rays as big underdogs to the Toronto Blue Jays this afternoon.  The Rays have the advantage on the mound in my opinion and shouldn't be this big of underdogs to the Blue Jays.

Zack Littell has allowed just 10 earned runs and 30 base runners in 30 innings for a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last five starts despite facing some of the league's top offenses in the Brewers, Yankees, Padres, Diamondbacks and Red Sox during this stretch.  Littell has owned the Blue Jays, pitching 11 2/3 innings without allowing a single earned run in his two career starts against them.

Kevin Gausman has allowed 13 earned runs in 20 innings in his last four starts for a 5.85 ERA.  Gausman has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rays for a 4.67 ERA.  Bet the Rays Thursday.

15* Thunder/Nuggets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder closed as 7-point favorites in Denver in Game 4.  Now they are only 4.5-point favorites two games later in Game 6 in Denver.  There's clearly value on the Thunder, and there's a lot of reasons to like them to win and cover to close out this series tonight.

The Nuggets are the most tired team left in the NBA.  They had to go 7 games with the Clippers in the opening round, and now they haven't had multiple days off in a row since that series.  They have the worst bench of any remaining teams in the playoffs, and fatigue is starting to catch up with them.

We saw that play out in the 4th quarter of Game 5 as the Thunder overcame a 9-point deficit and won by 7.  Nikola Jokic couldn't have played a better game and the Nuggets still lost.  Jokic went 17-of-25 from the field finishing with 44 points and 15 rebounds.  But he got no help, and Michael Porter Jr. and his bum shoulder is a liability at this point.  Porter Jr. went 1-of-7 for 2 points in Game 5.  The only reliable option off the bench is Russell Westbrook.  Jokic played 44 minutes in Game 5 and I think he will run out of gas tonight and won't be nearly as effective.

The Thunder are the deepest team in the NBA, they swept the Grizzlies in the first round, and they remain fresh for Game 6 tonight.  They have a ton of confidence after coming up clutch down the stretch in both Games 4 and 5, and that's exactly what this team needed to get over the hump and believe they could do it.  They are the best remaining team in these playoffs and should win the title.

Home teams who are down 3-2 in a series and facing elimination when listed as an underdog are 10-31 SU & 13-28 ATS since 2003.  The Nuggets have done a good job battling through a coaching change and a lack of depth, but their run ends tonight.  Bet the Thunder in Game 6 Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on A's/Dodgers OVER 9.5

The Dodgers are 12-5 in their last 17 games while scoring a total of 122 runs in those 17 games for an average of 7.2 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own. 

While the Dodgers rank 4th in baseball scoring 5.5 runs per game, the A's rank in the top half of the league scoring 4.5 runs per game.  The problem is the A's allow 5.3 runs per game this season with one of the worst staffs in baseball.

Osvaldo Bido is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in eight starts for the A's this season with just 27 K's in 41 2/3 innings.  The Dodgers will rock him tonight and do the heavy lifting for us.  The Dodgers will make this a bullpen game starting with Matt Sauer.  The OVER has been a great bet in games in which the Dodgers make it a bullpen game all season.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those eight meetings.  Temps will be in the 60's with light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.