15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond +8.5

The Richmond Spiders went 24-7 last season and return all five starters.  I like their experience here early in the season against a Kentucky Wildcats team that is playing 10 newcomers.

PG Jacob Gilyard was 10th nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio last year and led the nation with 3.19 steals per game.  Senior Nathan Cayo had 23 points and made all 10 of his field goal attempts in an 82-64 win over Morehead State Friday.

Kentucky started four freshmen and senior transfer Olivier Starr from Wake Forest against Morehead State.  They have seven freshmen and three transfers among their newcomers.  And this test against veteran Richmond will be much more difficult than the Morehead State game was for them.

Richmond is 8-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Kentucky is 0-6 ATS in home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game over the last three years.  Bet Richmond Sunday.

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Buffalo Bills -4.5

After losing on a Hail Mary to the Arizona Cardinals last time out, the Buffalo Bills (7-3) find themselves just one game ahead of the Miami Dolphins (6-4) for first place in the AFC East.  They will come out of their bye week highly motivated for a victory here against the Los Angeles Chargers.  And that bye has allowed several players to get healthy as the Bills needed a bye as much as anyone.

This Buffalo offense is hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are scoring 27.2 points per game on the season and are coming off 44 and 30-point efforts against the Seahawks and Cardinals, respectively.  Now their offense should torch a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed at least 28 points in seven consecutive games.

That includes 29 points to the Jaguars, 31 to the Broncos, 29 to the Dolphins and 28 to the Jets.  Those are the 21st, 27th, 29th and 32nd offenses in the NFL this season, so they are giving up big points against even poor offenses.  So you can imagine what the Bills are going to do to them, especially with the Chargers being without four key defenders in DE Ingram, CB Hayward, CB Harris and LB Nwosu.

The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. AFC opponents.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six November games.  Buffalo is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 November games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  This is a tough spot for a West Coast team like the Chargers traveling out East for that 10:00 AM body clock game here, too.  Plus they have to face a motivated Buffalo team off its bye week.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

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15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arizona Cardinals ML -125

I like this spot for the Arizona Cardinals.  They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games even though they were competitive in all three, so this is a ‘buy low’ opportunity.  All three games came against the Dolphins, Bills and Seahawks who are all playoff teams currently.  Now they get extra rest after losing a tough one to the Seahawks last Thursday in what was a bad spot for them.

Now they face a New England Patriots team that just can’t keep any momentum going.  The Patriots’ shot to make the playoffs went by the wayside last week as they were upset by the Houston Texans.  Now I can’t see them playing with much passion here against the Cardinals this week sitting at 4-6 on the season and out of the playoff race.

Not to mention, the Patriots haven’t been playing good football for months.  They are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only good performance coming in an upset win over Baltimore in a monsoon.  And clearly the Ravens are struggling over the last month too, so that win doesn’t look as good now.  Their other six games were all poor performances.

The Patriots don’t have much speed on defense, so they struggle against speedy teams like the Cardinals.  That was evident against the speed of the Texans last week.  And it will be again this week against Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and company.  Plus the weather is going to be perfect in New England, which favors the Cardinals.  It’s supposed to be 50 degrees with only 6 MPH winds at kickoff.

The Patriots give up 6.4 yards per play defensively while the Cardinals give up just 5.7 yards per play.  The Cardinals average 6.3 yards per play on offense while the Patriots only average 5.8 yards per play.  Arizona is outgaining its opponents by 0.6 yards per play this season, while New England is getting outgained by 0.6 yards per play.  

The Cardinals are simply better everywhere and should be at least favored by a field goal minimum here.  Arizona is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +7

This is a great spot to ‘buy low’ on the San Francisco 49ers, who have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  But those losses came against three of the best teams in the NFL in the Seahawks, Packers and Saints.  And they were more competitive than the scores showed in all three.  They actually outgained the Saints by 44 yards and the Seahawks by 1 yard, and they were only outgained by 68 yards by the Packers.

Now the 49ers come off their bye week, and they needed a bye more than anyone with all of their injuries.  And they will be getting some key pieces back this week in WR Samuel, CB Sherman, RB Mostert and DT Kinlaw.  And they already beat the Rams 24-16 as 2-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are 7-point road dogs in the rematch, which is simply too high.

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Rams after back-to-back wins and covers over the Seahawks and Bucs.  Now the Rams will be on a short week here after winning in Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football.  They are at a huge rest disadvantage here facing a 49ers team off their bye.  And they are feeling fat and happy after beating both of those teams.  This has letdown spot written all over it.

The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chargers/Bills OVER 52.5

This game has shootout written all over it between the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills Sunday.  These are two of the best offenses in the NFL, especially when it comes to throwing the football.  They are the 2nd and 3rd passing offenses in the league.  And the conditions will be prime for scoring in Buffalo for this time of year with 46 degrees and 10 MPH winds at kickoff forecasted.

This Buffalo offense is hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are scoring 27.2 points per game on the season and are coming off 44 and 30-point efforts against the Seahawks and Cardinals, respectively.  Now their offense should torch a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed at least 28 points in seven consecutive games.

That includes 29 points to the Jaguars, 31 to the Broncos, 29 to the Dolphins and 28 to the Jets.  Those are the 21st, 27th, 29th and 32nd offenses in the NFL this season, so they are giving up big points against even poor offenses.  So you can imagine what the Bills are going to do to them, especially with the Chargers being without four key defenders in DE Ingram, CB Hayward, CB Harris and LB Nwosu.  They allow 27.3 points per game on the season.

But the Chargers have the offense to make up for their poor defense.  Justin Herbert is the Rookie of the Year right now with what he is doing in the passing game.  He is guiding the Chargers to 26.0 points per game this season.  He is completing 68% of his passes for 2,699 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio this year.  And there’s a good chance he gets back a huge weapon this week in RB Austin Ekeler.

The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last seven games overall with combined scores of 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50 and 62 points.  That’s an average of 60.5 combined points per game.  This 52.5-point total isn’t nearly high enough today for these two games as we should see 60-plus combined points here.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.