Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Toronto Blue Jays -114

I'll definitely look for any opportunity to back Toronto ace Alek Manoah at close to any money.  That's the opportunity afforded to us today against the Tampa Bay Rays, and we'll take advantage.

Manoah went 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in 20 starts as a rookie last season.  He is proving it was no fluke this season, going 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in six starts.  Manoah is 3-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in four career starts against the Rays as well.

The Blue Jays are 20-6 in Manoah's 26 starts over the past two seasons.  Bet the Blue Jays Sunday.

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20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Dodgers -134

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be more motivated for a victory Sunday than at any other point this season thus far.  That's because they have shockingly lost four in a row as -185, -145, -215 and -180 favorites.  

That's why we are getting a good opportunity to 'buy low' on the Dodgers as only -134 favorites at home Sunday.  Keep in mind the Dodgers are 41-12 in their last 53 home games, so it's rare to get them this cheap at home.  Plus add in the motivation from trying to avoid the sweep against the Phillies here.

Aaron Nola is one of the most overrated starters in the majors.  He is 1-4 with a 3.83 ERA in seven starts this season, including 0-3 with a 4.86 ERA in three road starts.  The Phillies are 1-6 (-6.7 units) in his seven starts this season and 16-23 (-15.1 units) in all of his starts over the past two seasons.

Philadelphia is 1-10 in Nola's last 11 starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  The Phillies are losing by 3.3 runs per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Dodgers Sunday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -6

Just take the home team in every game in this series and you win.  It has been that simple, and it's going to continue to be that simply Sunday with the Phoenix Suns winning in yet another blowout over the Dallas Mavericks at home in Game 7.

The home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the six games in this series.  The Suns only won by 7 in Game 1 but were crushing the Mavericks in the 4th quarter before a meaningless comeback late.  They went on to win by 20 in Game 2 and by 30 in Game 5.  The Mavericks won by 9 in Game 3, by 10 in Game 4 and by 27 in Game 6.  The Suns will now have their revenge in blowout fashion and close out this series.

Phoenix is 11-1 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Suns are 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite this season.  Phoenix is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings, including 10-3 ATS in the last 13 home meetings.  Take the Suns in Game 7 Sunday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 208.5

The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another and the more it favors defense and low-scoring games.  That's why it should be no surprise that UNDERS are 54-24 in the last 78 Game 7's in the NBA playoffs.

The Bucks have been the best UNDER team in these players.  The UNDER is 9-2 in their 11 games.  They are scoring just 104.7 points per game and allowing 100.5 points per game.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season and have been able to hold the Bucks in check.  They can guard Giannis better than any team in the NBA.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.