Jack’s Free Pick Wednesday: New York Knicks +12.5 

The New York Knicks are as healthy as they’ve been all season.  It looks like it’s starting to pay off as the Knicks have won two of their last three with their only loss coming by a single point on a last-second shot by Charlotte. 

The Knicks pulled the 106-103 upset as 7.5-point dogs against the Mavericks at home.  They also blew out the Cavaliers 123-105 as 5.5-point home favorites last time out.  Now the Knicks are catching too many points as 12.5-point road underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers. 

This is a 76ers team that is 8-5 SU this season, but they did most of their damage early.  The 76ers are just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall with their three wins coming against Cleveland (twice) and Charlotte.   

Philadelphia only beat Charlotte by 8 as 14-point home favorites and Cleveland by 1 as 11-point home favorites as well.  Asking them to beat the Knicks by 13-plus points to cover tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

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15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +32 

The Akron Zips are 0-10 SU & 0-10 ATS this season.  The chances of them going 0-12 ATS for the entire season are slim to none.  Oddsmakers are going to adjust knowing that the betting public wants to keep fading them because they haven’t covered yet.  And I think they’ve adjusted too much tonight. 

The Zips just recently got starting QB Kato Nelson back from injury.  He threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns against Eastern Michigan last week while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.  That’s the same Eastern Michigan team that just rolled Northern Illinois 45-17 on the road last night. 

I just don’t think Miami Ohio is going to be motivated enough to put away Akron by 31-plus points tonight.  Miami Ohio already clinched the MAC East last week with their win over Bowling Green.  They have the tiebreaker on their closest pursuers with head-to-head wins, and I think they will be flat tonight as a result.  They would need to be fully invested to cover this big of a number as they only have one win all season that would cover 32 points. 

Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Miami Ohio) - off a home win, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Miami Ohio.  Take Akron Wednesday. 

15* Celtics/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +6 

The Boston Celtics are 11-2 this season and still getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight as 6-point road underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  It’s a Celtics team that has found their stride with Kemba Walker running the show and they look like one of the best teams in the NBA currently. 

The Clippers could be without Kawhi Leonard again tonight as he has missed two consecutive games with a left knee contusion.  They were barely able to escape with a 90-88 home victory over the Thunder as 7.5-point home favorites on Monday without him.  And they certainly won’t be able to put away the Celtics by margin with or without him tonight. 

Plays against home favorites (LA Clippers) - in non-conference games, off a home non-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Boston is 14-2 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Celtics Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on UNLV -4 

The UNLV Rebels made a great hire in the offseason by nabbing T.J. Otzelberger from South Dakota State.  He went 70-33 in his three seasons there while guiding the Jack Rabbits to two NCAA Tournaments and an NIT.  While several players transferred or graduated, Otzelberger was able to keep two starters in Amauri Hardy (13.1 PPG, 3.5 APG last year) and Cheikh Mbacke Diong (6.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 40 blocks). 

The Rebels have won and covered their two home games against IUPU-Fort Wayne and Abilene Christian.  And they are certainly battle-tested in the early going with losses to Kansas State (by 4), Cal (by 4) and UCLA (by 17).  This tough early schedule will have the Rebels undervalued moving forward after a 2-3 start.  Hardy (19.0 PPG) is carrying the team, while transfers Elijah Mitrou-Long (12.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG) from Texas and Donnie Tillman (12.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) from Utah have both proven to be huge gets for Otzelberger. 

Texas State also returns just two starters from last year and comes in overvalued after a 24-10 season.  The Bobcats are 3-2 with their three wins all coming at home against cupcakes in Texas Lutheran, Prairie View A&M and Jackson State.  They lost their two road games to Air Force and Baylor.  And now they will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after beating Jackson State at home on Monday while having to travel to UNLV.  The Bobcats won’t be prepared for this game at all. 

Danny Kaspar is 10-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Texas State.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Otzelberger is 23-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game in all games as a head coach.  Bet UNLV Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +6.5 

I like the Portland Pilots catching points in this in-state rivalry with Portland State.  The Pilots clearly came into this season undervalued after going 7-25 last year and 0-16 in WCC play.  I think they’ll continue to be a money maker moving forward. 

Indeed, Portland is off to a 3-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  After beating Williamette by 50 in their opener, they gave USC a battle in a 65-76 road loss as 23-point dogs.  Then they upset San Jose State 72-57 as 3-point road dogs before covering against Maine in a 71-62 victory as 7.5-point home favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 31.5 points in their three lined games. 

Portland State is picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Sky this year and deservedly so.  They lost three starters and only brought back two players who averaged more than 4.3 points per game from last season.  They are 1-2 this season with their only win coming at home over Puget Sound by a final of 94-69.  They lost at Indiana and Hawaii and are coming off a trip to the Island. 

Portland State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Vikings are 0-9 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Pilots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Pilots are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings at Portland State.  Roll with Portland Wednesday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -1 

The Houston Rockets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their run comes to an end tonight against a Denver Nuggets team that will be up to the challenge. 

The Rockets have been fasting on a pretty weak schedule as their eight wins have come against the Grizzlies, Warriors, Bulls, Pelicans, Clippers, Pacers, Timberwolves and Blazers.  This will be their toughest challenge in quite some time against a Nuggets team that has won six of their last seven overall coming in as well. 

The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season, and the Pepsi Center is never an easy place to play thanks to the altitude.  Now we get a fresh Nuggets team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Rockets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.