Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Colorado/Oregon UNDER 137.5

This will be a rematch from a 68-41 victory for Colorado over Oregon on January 5th.  That game saw just 109 combined points, and now this total has been set at 137.5 for the rematch.  I don't expect the Ducks to shoot as poorly as they did in that first meeting, but we have a lot of room to spare here.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  I usually look to the UNDER in the rematch when teams play each other twice in a season because of it.  These are two very good defensive teams with the Buffaloes allowing 66.6 points per game and 41.7% shooting, while the Ducks allow 66.3 points per game and 41.6% shooting on the season.

Colorado ranks 20th in the country in adjusted defense and has allowed just 58.2 points per game in its last six games overall.  Oregon ranks 214th in adjusted tempo and 71st in adjusted defense this season.  The Ducks have allowed 68 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall.

The UNDER is 43-21 in Buffaloes last 64 road games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Buffaloes last six games overall.  Oregon is 34-17 UNDER in its last 51 home games following a road loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

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15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on SMU/Memphis UNDER 151

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between SMU and Memphis.  Just looking at recent head-to-head history, this total has been set too high at 151 points.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER.

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings but would be 9-0 in the last nine meetings with a total of 151.  Memphis and SMU have combined for 148 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 134.6 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is over 16 points less than this total.  They have combined for 133 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings as well.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle +6.5

Seattle is 16-4 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  That has played out here of late in conference play with the schedule getting easier for them.  The Redhawks are now 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with four wins by 15 points or more.

Sam Houston State is also a quality team at 15-5 this season with some impressive non-conference wins.  But the Bearkats should not be favored by 6.5 points over Seattle tonight.  This game should be much closer to PK, so we'll take advantage and back the value on the road underdog Redhawks.

Sam Houston State is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Seattle is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game after 15-plus games.  Seattle beat Sam Houston State 78-63 last season and brought back almost their entire team this season.  This one will go down to the wire tonight folks.  Bet Seattle Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC +5

The USC Trojans are improving rapidly.  They have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and have a huge home-court advantage, going 9-1 SU at home this season.  Now they want revenge from a 58-60 road loss at UCLA in their first meeting this season on January 5th.

The Trojans come back as 5-point home underdogs in the rematch, and I think they have a great chance to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  UCLA is coming off a loss at Arizona to end a 14-game winning streak.  

I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect in that next game.  That's especially the case for UCLA here as they were way more motivated to face Arizona than they will be to beat USC for a second time this season.

The Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  USC is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  USC is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with UCLA.  Bet USC Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State -2

Michigan State is 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS at home this season with one of the losses coming to No. 1 ranked Purdue by a single point.  Iowa is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in Big Ten road games this season with losses to Nebraska by 16, Penn State by 4 and Ohio State by 16.  The Spartans should be bigger home favorites over the Hawkeyes tonight.

Michigan State is 17-2 SU & 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Iowa.  The Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after playing a game as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Michigan State Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +9

The Brooklyn Nets are in a terrible spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 133-137 loss in Philadelphia last night.  They will be playing in their 6th different city in 10 days after playing their last five games on the road.  The Nets are just 2-5 SU in their last seven games without Kevin Durant with three losses by double-digits.  

Irving played 38 minutes, Claxton 38, Curry 34 and O-Neale 34 last night for the Nets.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons, and that's going to make it very difficult to win by double-digits, which is what it's going to take to beat us tonight.

The Pistons are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 11 days.  That makes it a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who have gone 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season tonight given the favorable spot.

Detroit is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Brooklyn is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after losing four or five of its last six games.  Brooklyn is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team that wins less than 25% of their games.  The Nets are 14-39-2 ATS in their last 55 home games.  Detroit is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.