Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Colorado Rockies +103 

I like the fact that Colorado had yesterday off, while the Philadelphia Phillies played yesterday and then had to fly cross country to Denver overnight.  The Rockies are fresh and rejuvenated after winning three in a row coming in. 

I think we are getting Kyle Freeland at a great value today as a home underdog because he’s off to a sub-par start this season.  He is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA through four starts.  But we know he’s better than this, and he proved that last year by going 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA, which is almost unheard of for a Colorado pitcher to have a sub-3.00 ERA when they pitch half their games at Coors Field. 

Zach Eflin is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA this season, but he’s now just 17-19 with a 5.04 ERA in his career.  He is getting way too much respect from the books in this matchup.  Eflin is also 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in his two road starts this season.  He gave up 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 innings in a 3-10 loss at Miami in his last start, and the Marlins have a terrible lineup.  Eflin is 1-2 with a 9.20 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in three career starts against Colorado as well. 

The Phillies are 1-7 in Eflin’s last eight road starts.  Philadelphia is 7-19 in its last 26 road games.  The Rockies are 13-3 in Freeland’s last 16 home starts.  Colorado is 8-1 in Freeland’s last nine home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Rockies Thursday.

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Jack has THREE Top 10 MLB Finishes to his credit! He is off to a 15-8 MLB Start in 2019 that has only added to his 144-106 MLB Run since last season!

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15* 76ers/Nets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +3.5 

The Nets have really been impressive in this series with the 76ers thus far.  They led basically the entire way in their 111-102 win in Game 1.  They hung tough in the first half and only trailed 64-65 at the break in Game 2 in what was essentially a must-win game for the Nets.  They got blown out in the second half, which is to be expected. 

The Nets haven’t been to the playoffs in years, so it’s going to be a raucous atmosphere in Brooklyn tonight for Game 3.  And the Nets will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after Joel Embiid was seen laughing about elbowing Jarett Allen in the postgame news conference.  They want revenge in a big way here. 

The Nets are 23-18 at home this season, while the 76ers actually have a losing record on the road.  Brooklyn is 33-16 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Nets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Take the Nets Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers +101 

The Milwaukee Brewers get to stay at home after playing at home on Wednesday and concluding their series against the Cardinals.  The Dodgers have to travel from Los Angeles to Milwaukee overnight and it’s certainly a favorable scheduling spot for the Brewers. 

There’s no way the Brewers should be underdogs in this game given their edge on the mound as well.  Kyle Davies is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA in three starts this season.  Davies is 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in five career starts against the Dodgers, including 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA in his last three starts against them, giving up just one earned run in 20 innings. 

Julio Urias is 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in three starts for the Dodgers this season.  One of those starts came against Milwaukee on April 12th as he allowed 6 runs in 5 innings of a 5-8 loss.  The Brewers have also had the better bullpen this season with a 4.26 ERA compared to a 5.02 ERA for the Dodgers. 

The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last four road games.  Los Angele sis 1-6 in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Dodgers are 0-4 in Urias’ last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 20-7 in their last 27 games following a loss.  Milwaukee is 4-0 in Davies’ last four starts.  Roll with the Brewers Thursday. 

20* Nuggets/Spurs NBA TV No-Brainer on San Antonio -3.5 

The San Antonio Spurs have controlled this series thus far outside of the 4th quarter in Game 2.  They have pretty much led the entire way other than that one quarter, where Jamal Murray went off for 21 points.  Look for them to take back control of this series with a win and cover at home in Game 2. 

The Spurs have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 32-9 on their home floor.  The Nuggets have a losing road record, and they just can’t win in San Antonio.  Indeed, the Nuggets have lost 13 straight games in San Antonio, a streak that dates back to March 2012. 

San Antonio is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing four or less games in 10 days this season.  The Spurs are 27-8 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  San Antonio is 20-2 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this year.  They are winning by 12.2 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Spurs Thursday.