Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Georgetown +9.5

The Georgetown Hoyas have been one of the most profitable teams in the country to back since the start of January.  They just get no love, but Patrick Ewing deserves some real credit for the coaching job he has done with this team.

The Hoyas are 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have upset wins over Seton Hall, Xavier, Creighton and Providence.  They have been competitive in basically every game.  And now they are going to want revenge from a 57-70 home loss to Connecticut on February 23rd as 4.5-point dogs.

Connecticut comes in overvalued after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Huskies are now 9.5-point favorites against the Hoyas in the rematch, which is a 5-point adjustment from the 4.5-point spread in that first meeting.  Asking the Huskies to win by double-digits to cover this spread is asking too much.

Georgetown is 9-2 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  The Hoyas are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

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15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -6.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three wins by double-digits and a 4-point win over Wisconsin as a 2-point favorite.

Indiana has gone the other direction, playing its way out of the NCAA Tournament by going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with all four losses by 6 points or more.  Things got worse for the Hoosiers recently with the loss of second-leading scorer Armaan Franklin (11.6 PPG, 45% 3-pointers) to an ankle injury.  The Hoosiers already rely too heavily on Jackson-Davis to get their offense, and now without Franklin (doubtful) that is even more the case.  Race Thompson (9.6 PPG) is also questionable for this one.

Purdue already beat Indiana 81-69 on the road in their first meeting this season to improve to 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with six of the last seven wins coming by 7 points or more.  And the Boilermakers won't have a letdown in the rematch.  They are trying to clinch the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten, meaning they'd get a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament as each of the top four seeds are awarded one.  It's also Senior Day for the Boilermakers.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

20* Indiana State/Loyola-Chicago MVC No-Brainer on Indiana State +11

I cashed in Indiana State yesterday and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons.  This team just does not get the respect they deserves from oddsmakers and hasn't been for a few months now.

While Loyola-Chicago and Drake grab all the headlines in the Missouri Valley, it's Indiana State that has been just as good as both here down the stretch.  The Sycamores are 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And prior to this stretch they upset Loyola-Chicago 76-71 as 8-point dogs and lost 48-58 as 8-point dogs in the rematch, so they've already proven they can play with the Ramblers.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Ramblers due to being ranked in the Top 25 after going 15-1 SU in their last 16 games overall.  But they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games with very few blowout victories in there.  That's with the exception of their 73-49 win over Southern Illinois yesterday, which they are being overvalued for.  Southern Illinois was missing its top two scorers and had no chance of even being competitive in that game.  This is a huge step up in class for the Ramblers today.

Indiana State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 60 points or fewer in its previous game.  The Sycamores are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Indiana State has lost just one of its last 18 games by more than 10 points, which was a 12-point loss in the season finale to Valpo after beating them by 15 the previous day.  They didn't care about that game, and they didn't have their best player in Tyreke Key (17.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG), who returned to score 19 points and grab nine boards against Evansville yesterday..  That makes for a 17-1 system backing the Sycamores pertaining to this 11-point spread.  Take Indiana State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +12.5

The Creighton Bluejays are going through some turmoil right now with head coach Doug McDermott using the word plantation recently.  He said it following their 69-77 loss to Xavier two games ago, and they proceeded to trail by as many as 22 points in a 60-72 loss to Villanova in their last game.  McDermott has since offered to resign.

I just don't trust the state of this Bluejays' team right now, and they certainly shouldn't be laying 12.5 points to a Butler team that already beat them 70-66 at home earlier this season as 7-point dogs.  So now the Bluejays are 12.5-point favorites in the rematch, a 5.5-point adjustment that is not warranted.

That's especially the case when you consider the Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are coming off two straight upset wins over Seton Hall (61-52) as 7.5-point dogs and Villanova (73-61) as 11.5-point dogs.  And they've been off since February 28th, so they are rested and ready to go.  Creighton just played on March 3rd and has only two days to get ready for this game.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Butler) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are 42-19 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bluejays are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Take Butler Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Villanova/Providence UNDER 140

Villanova and Providence both prefer to play at slow tempos.  Both are elite defensive teams as well.  And both should struggle on offense today, especially Providence, which shoots just 43.4% as a team.  But they stay competitive by holding the opposition to 43.9% shooting and limiting possessions.

We saw that in their first meeting with Villanova this season.  Providence actually led 27-24 at halftime before getting their doors blown off in the second half.  The Wildcats pulled away for a 71-56 victory in a game that saw just 127 combined points.  Now this total has been set at 140 in the rematch, which is way too high.

That's especially the case when you consider Villanova just lost second-leading scorer Collin Gillespie (14.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) to a season-ending injury in their 72-60 win over Creighton last time out.  They'll have to rely even more on their defense moving forward if they are going to make a run in the Big East and NCAA Tournaments.

Each of the last four meetings between Providence and Villanova have seen 135 or fewer combined points and an average of just 124.5 combined points per game.  That's 15.5 points less than this total of 140.  So the books have missed their mark badly here and we'll take advantage.  The UNDER is 23-7 in Friars last 30 games as home underdogs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -2

Ohio State is my favorite play of the entire 2020-21 college basketball season Saturday.  I just love the spot for them.  I know they are going to put forth their best effort of the season after coming in off three consecutive losses.  They hadn't even lost two in a row at any other point this season until now.

So it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Buckeyes off those three straight losses, and a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois off three consecutive wins and covers.  The last two were in upset fashion as they won at Wisconsin and at Michigan despite not having their best player in Ayo Dosunmu (21 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.3 APG).  He is likely to be out again for this game as the Fighting Illini already have the No. 2 seed locked up in the Big Ten Tournament.

Ohio State has a lot to play for here as it is battling with Purdue for 4th place in the Big Ten, and the top for teams all get double-byes in the Big Ten Tournament.  It's also Senior Day for the Buckeyes.  And they are the more rested team having five days to get ready for this game since last losing to Iowa on February 28th.  Illinois only has three days to get ready after beating Michigan on March 2nd.  That win over Michigan, coupled with being locked into the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten, has the Fighting Illini primed for a letdown today.

The extra rest was needed for the Buckeyes.  "Our whole team needs rest and we've got to get healthy," head coach Chris Holtmann said. "We had basically a third of our team that wasn't able to really practice much at all last week, or at least very limited.  We've got to get as much as we can, get healthy and back to practicing and then move forward and recognize and own those things we've got to get done better collectively."

Senior forward Kyle Young returned from injury for the Iowa game but wasn't at his best.  He should be much sharper with the extra time to get ready for this game.  Ohio State is 4-1 SU in its last five meetings with Illinois, including an 87-81 road win in their first meeting this season.  Illinois is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when revenging an upset loss as a favorite.  The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  Ohio State is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.