Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-18-20 | Kentucky v. LSU OVER 145 | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - SEC Total PLAY OF THE YEAR on Kentucky/LSU over 145 -110 I absolutely love the OVER in tonight's late night SEC matchup between LSU and Kentucky. The Tigers have consistently been involved in high-scoring games. Each of their last 4 games have seen a combined score of 160 or more. In their last 9 conference games, only one has finished with fewer than 156 and that was 136 against Ole Miss, who is one of the worst offenses in the SEC and they like to play slow. Kentucky can definitely score. While they did just play in a low-scoring game on Saturday, which saw 129 total points, that was against Ole Miss. Prior to that they had scored 77 or more in 3 straight games. Wildcats are going to do some damage here. LSU is 12th out of 14 SEC teams in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. They are also 12th in forced turnovers at just 14.9%. Kentucky has a solid defense, but they are playing on the road on a just two days of rest, so they aren't going to have the freshest of legs here. I also just don't think there's any slowing down the Tigers at the Maravich Assembly Center. OVER is 8-1 in LSU's last 9 at home vs teams holding opponents to 42% or worse at least 15 games into the season. OVER is also 10-2 in the Tigers last 12 conference games overall. OVER is also 8-1 in Kentucky's last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 6-2 in their last 8 on the road. Take the OVER! |
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02-18-20 | Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 133.5 | 67-76 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern/Maryland under 133½ -109 The UNDER is definitely worth a look in Tuesday's Big 10 matchup that has 1st place Maryland hosting last place Northwestern. Terps have won 8 straight to improve to 11-3 (only other team in Big 10 with fewer than 6 losses is Penn St.), while Wildcats have lost 9 in a row and are sitting at 1-13 in league play. These two first met this season on Jan. 21. Northwestern jumped out to a 40-26 1st half lead, but ended up losing 77-66. While that game ended with 143 points, I'm confident the rematch will be a lot lower scoring. Northwestern shot 50% from the field and 44% from deep in that game at home against the Terps. Chances of that repeating are slim. Wildcats are shooting just 40.8% overall in conference play. They ranked 13th in the conference in 2-point shooting. I also don't see Maryland's offense going off in this one. This is big letdown spot for the Terps off that monster road win at Michigan State on Saturday. I see Maryland going thru the motions and could see this thing struggling to get to 125. Take the UNDER! |
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02-18-20 | Arkansas v. Florida -6 | Top | 59-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Florida -6 -110 I got no problem laying the points with Florida at home against the Razorbacks. The Gators are rolling right now. They have won 4 of their last 5 and are off two dominating performances in a 78-61 road win at Texas A&M and 84-66 win at home over Vanderbilt. Florida is very quietly sitting at 8-4 in the SEC (only 2 games out of 1st). While the Gators are surging, Arkansas is on a free fall with 4 straight losses. You really have to wonder about the psyche of this Razorbacks team, as two of the 4 losses came in OT and the other was a 1-point loss at home to Mississippi State. I just think it's going to be hard to right the ship on the road for Arkansas. Razorbacks are really feeling the injury to guard Isaiah Joe, as they are not a deep team. PLaying on the road with just 2 days rest is a lot harder for this team than it is for others. Arkansas is also just 11-25 ATS last 36 on the road after 2 or more consecutive conference losses and 2-9 ATS last 11 after allowing 75+ points in 2 straight games. Favorite has also covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. Take Florida! |
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02-17-20 | Xavier v. St. John's +2 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. John's +2 -109 I really like the value here with the Red Storm as a home dog against the Musketeers. St John's just won at home Wednesday against Providence 80-69 as a 5.5-point dog. The Red Storm will carry over that momentum into this one. Xavier on the other hand just had their 3-game winning streak snapped in a 61-66 loss at Butler on Wednesday. This team has had trouble bouncing from a loss, as they have multiple losing streaks in Big East play. St John's is also going to be plenty motivated to get revenge from a mere 8-point loss at Xavier back in early January. Forcing turnovers is a big part of the Red Storm path to success and that's a weakness of the Musketeers. Xavier turned it over 19 times in the first meeting and that was at home. Those mistakes could be compounded here on the road and if St. John's gets that momentum early they should win here no problem. Xavier is just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 as a favorite and 1-5 ATS laying points in their last 6 as a road favorite. Red Storm are 6-2 ATS last 8 as a home dog. Take St. John's! |
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02-16-20 | St. Louis BattleHawks v. Houston Roughnecks OVER 49 | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 105 h 17 m | Show | |
4* XFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on BattleHawks/Roughnecks OVER 49 -110 I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's XFL matchup that has Houston Roughnecks hosting St Louis Battlehawks. Houston was the best offense in Week 1 and it centered around the great play of quarterback P.J. Walker, who went 23 of 39 for 272 yards and 4 scores. The Roughnecks only attempted 16 rushes and 4 of those were by Walker. Clearly they are looking to air it out. St Louis could only manage 15 points in their opener, which is a bit misleading. They actually had 374 yards of total offense, rushing for 191 yards and getting a big game from their QB in Jordan Ta'amu, who was 20 of 27 for 209 yards and rushed for 77 yards on 9 attempts. Keep in mind that Houston put up 37 points in their opener on just 315 total yards. I see both of these teams scoring early and often, as this one flies past the number. Take the OVER! |
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02-16-20 | St. Louis BattleHawks +8 v. Houston Roughnecks | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 77 h 25 m | Show | |
4* XFL - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on St. Louis BattleHawks +8 -110 This is an easy play for me on St Louis. The BattleHawks were the only road team to get a win in Week 1, as they knocked off Dallas 15-9. Far from an impressive final score, but if you watched the game you know St Louis was the far superior team. The BattleHawks piled on 374 total yards, outgaining the Renegades by 107. They averaged 5.3 yards/play. The Roughnecks put up 37 points in a blowout win at home over the Wildcats, which I think is definitely playing into the number here. Thing is, they only had 315 total yards and outgained LA by just 24 total yards in their 20-point win. Houston's offense was all pass and St Louis held Dallas without a TD pass and racked up 4 sacks. Either way I think we are getting some big time value with the BattleHawks catching over a touchdown. Take St. Louis! |
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02-16-20 | Dallas Renegades -4 v. Los Angeles Wildcats | 25-18 | Win | 100 | 40 h 31 m | Show | |
4* XFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER on Dallas Renegades -4 -108 I like the value here with the Renegades laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Wildcats. Last week Dallas lost at home to the BattleHawks 9-15. They were the only home team to lose in Week 1. However, the Renegades played that game with backup Philip Nelson at quarterback. Nelson completed 33 of 42 attempts, but for just 209 yards. That's not near the production you are looking for on 33 completions. This week starter Landry Jones is back and I think we are going to see Dallas' offense go off. They will be up against a Wildcats defense that was torched in their opener, giving up 37 points and 315 total yards to the Roughnecks. Houston quarterback, PJ Walker, threw for 272 yards and 4 scores. Look for Jones to have a big day in this one. Take Dallas! |
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02-16-20 | Memphis v. Connecticut -4 | 61-64 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Connecticut -4 -105 I like the value here with the Huskies laying a shot number at home against Memphis. UConn is just 4-7 in the AAC, but if you watch this team, especially here of late, you know that they are much better than their record. Huskies have lost 11 games this season, 9 of those by single-digits, including 3 overtime losses. I think we are getting a steal here with them at this price. This is an absolutely brutal spot for Memphis, who lost a game they shouldn't have in Thursday's 86-92 overtime loss at Cincinnati. Not easy playing extra time on the road and then having just 2 days off before going back on the road against a quality opponent. Memphis plays good defense and are solid on the boards, but that's not a concern here. UConn is 8-1 ATS last 9 at home vs good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or less at least 15 games into the season and 9-2 ATS last 11 at home vs teams who are outrebounding teams by 4+ boards/game. Huskies are also 21-10 ATS last 31 at home and 9-2 ATS last 11 when they have won 2 of their last 3. Take Connecticut! |
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02-16-20 | Jon Rahm -155 v. Bryson DeChambeau | 72-69 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - Genesis Invitational (B. DeChambeau vs J Rahm) on Jon Rahm -155 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Jon Rahm -155 to finish better than Bryson DeChambeau in Sunday's final round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-16-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota -4.5 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota -4½ -110 Easy play here on the Gophers as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa has had their struggles on the road this season. Hawkeyes are 8-6 in Big Ten play and all 6 of those losses have come on the road. Iowa's only road win came against league worst Northwestern. Don't be fooled by Iowa having already beat Minnesota 72-52 at home. At the same time, Minnesota is also a much different team at home compared to on the road. Gophers are 10-3 at home compared to 2-8 on the road. The big key here besides the home/away splits is the health of Iowa. Hawkeyes are unlikely to have standout freshman guard CJ Fredrick, who rolled his ankle in their 77-89 loss at Indiana on Thursday. Note that while Iowa is playing on a mere 2 days of rest here, Minnesota has been off since last Saturday. That extra time to prepare should only add to the edge here for the Gophers. Take Minnesota! |
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02-16-20 | Paul Casey -140 v. Chez Reavie | 75-69 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
3* GOLF - Genesis Invitational (C. Reavie vs P. Casey) on Paul Casey -140 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Paul Casey -140 to finish better than Chez Reavie in Sunday's final round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-15-20 | Utah State -5 v. Fresno State | 71-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Utah State -5 -109 The Aggies are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Bulldogs. This is just too good a price to pass up with Utah State given how well they are playing right now. The Aggies come in having won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. They got a realistic shot here of finishing No. 2 in the MWC behind San Diego State. As for Fresno State, they avoided a 3rd straight loss with a 84-78 OT win at San Jose State, but that's not exactly a positive needing OT to beat a team like that. This has just not been a good year for the Bulldogs, who have a losing record at 5-6 at home. Even more important is their awful 2-7-1 ATS record in home lined games. One thing Fresno State does well is generate offensive rebounds and they have to with how sloppy they are with the ball and their lack of shooting. Problem is the Aggies are a great defensive rebounding team. I just don't see the Bulldogs keeping this close. Take Utah State! |
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02-15-20 | Virginia v. North Carolina UNDER 118.5 | 64-62 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Virginia/North Carolina under 118½ -110 This game is not going to be one to watch if you like scoring. With the Cavaliers inability to score on a consistent basis and the Tar Heels lack of outside shooting, I wouldn't be surprised if these two failed to reach 100 points. Virginia plays as slow as any team and they figure to be on the slower side of things after a grueling OT win against Notre Dame on Tuesday. As for the Tar Heels, they had that great game against Duke last Saturday, but then managed just 57 points on the road against Wake Forest next time out. Even with the home crowd to help, I don't see UNC's offense being able to generate a lot here. UNDER is also 38-18-1 in Virginia's last 57 road games and 37-15 in their last 52 as an underdog. UNDER is 6-1 in the Tar Heels last 7 vs a team with a winning straight up record and 11-4-1 in their last 16 as a favorite. Take the UNDER! |
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02-15-20 | Cornell v. Dartmouth UNDER 134.5 | 53-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Cornell/Dartmouth under 134½ -109 I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Ivy League action that has Dartmouth hosting Cornell. These are two of the slower paced Ivy teams and both figure to be on the slow end of things in this one. The Big Red were on the road at Harvard last night and could not stop the Crimson in a 63-85 loss. Big Green were also in action last night. They pulled out a grueling 65-63 win at home against Columbia. Last two times Dartmouth has played in the second game of a back-to-back the offense has been a now show. Last Saturday they managed just 57 points at Yale and the Saturday before a mere 46 at Penn. I could see both teams failing to reach 60 in this one. UNDER is 8-3 in the Big Green's last 11 off a win and 5-1 in their last 6 as home favorite. UNDER is also 4-0 in Cornell's last 4 off a SU loss by more than 20 and 8-2 in their last 10 on Saturday. Take the UNDER! |
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02-15-20 | Tennessee +4.5 v. South Carolina | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Prime Time ATS Line MISTAKE on Tennessee +4½ -115 I think a lot of people will have a hard time backing Tennessee on the road at this price, especially with how well South Carolina has been playing. Frank Martin's Gamecocks just went on the road and destroyed Georgia 75-59, improving to 5-1 over their last 6 games. One of the big reasons I think we are seeing the number a little low, is this has become a difficult spot for South Carolina. Just as everything was going well for the Gamecocks, news of NCAA allegations was announced Thursday. The slightest of distractions can derail a team and I just think they struggle to play well here. Tennessee has also been playing well here of late and recently won as a road dog at Alabama. Last time out they absolutely destroyed Arkansas 82-61. Vols are 20-8-1 ATS last 29 off a win by more than 20 points and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road after a win by 20 or more. Take Tennessee! |
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02-15-20 | Tampa Bay Vipers v. Seattle Dragons +3 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 23 m | Show | |
3* XFL - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle Dragons +3 -110 I like the value here with the Dragons as 3-point home dog against the Vipers. Seattle lost their opener 31-19 on the road to the defenders. DC might just be the tam to beat. Cardale Jones graded out as the best QB in the league in Week 1, throwing for 235 yards and 2 scores. The Dragons simply had no answer for him and wide out Eli Rogers (6 catches, 73 yards). The defense should have a much easier time containing Tampa Bay's Aaron Murray, who was able to guide the Vipers to just 3-points in their 20-point loss at New York. I also think you have to factor in home field advantage. Home team won 3 of the 4 games in Week 1 and Seattle is known across multiple sports for their loyal fan bases. Take Seattle! |
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02-15-20 | Notre Dame +12.5 v. Duke | 60-94 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Notre Dame +12½ -108 The Fighting Irish are definitely worth a look here as a double-digit underdog against the Blue Devils. I think Notre Dame is built to give Duke a tough contest. The Irish are certainly playing well coming in, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 with the only loss a mere 1-point setback on the road at Virginia (really should have won). They have covered 6 straighta against the number. Duke is always going to have an inflated number on them because of how big a public play they are, so the value is definitely there. I also think this is a good spot to fade the Blue Devils, who have played two monster games leading up to this. Last Saturday they had that epic OT win over rival UNC and then Monday had to grind out a 5-point home win over FSU. Another thing to note here is that this is Notre Dame's only regular-season game against Duke and given how big it is to play Duke for these other ACC teams, I think we get their best effort here. Irish are 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Notre Dame! |
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02-15-20 | Louisville v. Clemson +6.5 | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Clemson +6½ -110 I like the value here with Clemson getting a decent number at home in Saturday's matchup with No. 5 Louisville. The Cardinals had their 10-game winning streak snapped in a 58-64 loss at Georgia Tech on Wednesday as a similarly priced 6-point dog. Louisville really came out sluggish in that contest and I think the perception here is they will bounce back. Easier said than done when playing on the road with just two days off against a hungry Clemson team that is going to lay it all on the line in this one. Tigers had been struggling, but put an end to their 3-game skid with an emphatic 72-52 road win at Pitt on Wednesday. Not only will they be motivated here at home against a top ranked foe, but they will come in very confident. Tigers are 15-5 ATS last 20 at home off a cover, 10-2 ATS last 12 at home off a win by 10 or more and 6-0 ATS last 6 off an upset win as an underdog. Take Clemson! |
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02-15-20 | Georgia +1 v. Texas A&M | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia +1 -110 I love the value here with the Bulldogs at basically a pick'em at Texas A&M. These two teams played a couple weeks ago at Georgia and the Bulldogs won convincingly 63-48. Aggies had no answer for Georgia small ball up-tempo attack and really struggled to slow down star freshman Anthony Edwards. I see no reason why we shouldn't expect those same struggles in the rematch. The Bulldogs have lost 3 straight since that win over Texas A&M, but that's almost a positive given they are 9-2 ATS last 2 years when coming off 3 or more straight conference losses. Aggies are also 0-7 ATS as a favorite, 0-6 ATS at home after playing a game as a home dog and 2-9 ATS last 11 at home when revening a loss. Take Georgia! |
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02-15-20 | New York Guardians v. DC Defenders UNDER 47.5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
4* XFL - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on New York Guardians/DC Defenders under 47½ -110 I like the value with the UNDER in Saturday's XFL showdown between the DC Defenders and the New York Guardians. I think we are seeing a big total here given how good both offenses looked in Week 1, especially the Defenders, who hung 31 against the Dragons. Thing is neither offense was as good as it seemed. While DC's offense put up 31, they only had 295 total yards (were actually outgained) New York scored 23 points on a mere 226 total yards. Guardians only had 44 rushing yards and 182 passing yards. Take the UNDER! |
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02-15-20 | Matt Kuchar v. Rory McIlroy -180 | 70-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - Genesis Invitational (R. McIlroy vs M. Kuchar) on Rory McIlroy -180 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Rory McIlroy -180 to finish better than Matt Kuchar in Saturday's 3rd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-15-20 | Jon Rahm -173 v. JB Holmes | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - Genesis Invitational (J. Holmes vs J. Rahm) on Jon Rahm -173 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Jon Rahm -173 to finish better than JB Holmes in Saturday's 3rd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-15-20 | Sebastian Munoz +145 v. Bryson DeChambeau | 70-69 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - Genesis Invitational (DeChambeau vs Munoz) on Sebastian Munoz +145 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Sebastian Munoz +145 to finish better than Bryson DeChambeau in Saturday's 3rd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-14-20 | World v. USA -4 | 131-151 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Rising Stars VEGAS INSIDER on USA -4 -110 I'm confident Team USA is going to come away with a win and cover in tonight's Rising Star Challenge. Last year Team USA won going away 161-144 and I think we could see another blowout in this one. Team USA looks to be even better this year, as they got the two best rookies in the game in Ja Morant and Zion Williamson, who both look like guys who will be at or near the top of the game for a long time coming. Team World has Doncic, but much like USA's Trae Young, he doesn't figure to play a lot. Doncic and Young both made the real All-Star game on Sunday and aren't going to log many minutes in this thing. With that said I think Zion and Morant are going to put on a show at the United Center. Take Team USA! |
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02-14-20 | Rider +5.5 v. Siena | 64-73 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rider +5½ -109 Rider is definitely worth a look here at this price. This is a big number for the Broncs to be catching. These two teams already played once this season at Rider and the Broncos won that game 85-77. That was back in a stretch in which Rider was 2-6 over a 8 game run. This time around the Broncs have won 5 of 6 and just won and covered as a 9-point home favoire against Niagara in their last game. There's no question they are going to be up for this one. That first meeting was heated. Multiple players were ejected. In that first meeting Riders' guards Vaughn and Jordan combined for 50 points and the Broncs defense forced the Saints into 20 turnovers. No reason not to expect more of the same this time around. Sienna is 2-6 ATS last 8 games off a win and 3-8 ATS last 11 times they have been listed as the favorite. Take Rider! |
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02-14-20 | Davidson v. St Bonaventure -3 | Top | 93-64 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE MONTH on St Bonaventure -3 -104 I absolutely love the value here with the Bonnies laying a short number at home against the Wildcats. St Bonaventure comes into this game on a roll. Last time out they avoided the dreaded trap game, making easy work of St. Joes on the road after that big upset win at Duquesne. You factor in how well the team is playing and the energy and excitement around this game, the atmosphere in the Reilly Center should be a big advantage for them. They don't get many prime time games on ESPN2 in their home gym. On top of that, Davidson has shown no ability to play up their potential on the road. In fact, the Wildcats have really been underachievers all season. They are 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS when they are tasked with playing a game away from home. They are also a great fade when the books are giving them points. Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as an underdog. Take St. Bonaventure! |
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02-14-20 | Erik Van Rooyen v. Danny Lee +140 | 74-73 | Win | 140 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
3* GOLF - Genesis Inv. (Lee vs Rooyen) on Danny Lee +140 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Danny Lee +140 to finish better than Erik Van Rooyen in Friday's 2nd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-14-20 | Bryson DeChambeau v. Sebastian Munoz +150 | 70-69 | Win | 150 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - Genesis Inv. (Munoz vs DeChambeau) on Sebastian Munoz +150 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Sebastian Munoz +150 to finish better than Bryson DeChambeau in Friday's 2nd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-14-20 | Hideki Matsuyama -120 v. Matt Kuchar | 72-69 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
3* GOLF - Genesis Inv. (Kuchar vs Matsuyama) on Hideki Matsuyama -120 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Hideki Matsuyama -120 to finish better than Matt Kuchar in Friday's 2nd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-14-20 | Xander Schauffele +105 v. Jason Day | 70-76 | Win | 105 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - Genesis Inv. (Day vs Schauffele) on Xander Schauffele +105 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Xander Schauffele +105 to finish better than Jason Day in Friday's 2nd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-14-20 | Sungjae Im -155 v. Russell Henley | 75-69 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
3* GOLF - Genesis Inv. (Henley vs Im) on Sungjae Im -155 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Sungjae Im -155 to finish better than Russell Henley in Friday's 2nd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-14-20 | Matthew Fitzpatrick v. Jhonattan Vegas +155 | 70-69 | Win | 155 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
3* GOLF - Genesis Inv. (Vegas vs Fitzpatrick) on Jhonattan Vegas +155 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Jhonattan Vegas +155 to finish better than Matthew Fitzpatrick in Friday's 2nd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-14-20 | Rafael Cabrera Bello v. Jason Kokrak +110 | 69-73 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - Genesis Inv. (Kokrak vs Bello) on Jason Kokrak +110 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Jason Kokrak +110 to finish better than Rafael Cabrera Bello in Friday's 2nd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-14-20 | Ryan Armour v. Troy Merritt +100 | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
3* GOLF - Genesis Inv. (Merritt vs Armour) on Troy Merritt +100 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Troy Merritt +100 to finish better than Ryan Armour in Friday's 2nd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-14-20 | Tiger Woods v. Justin Thomas -110 | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - Genesis Inv. (Woods vs Thomas) on Justin Thomas -110 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Justin Thomas -110 to finish better than Tiger Woods in Friday's 2nd round action at the Genesis Invitational! |
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02-13-20 | Washington +4 v. USC | Top | 56-62 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on Washington +4 -114 Easy play here on the Huskies. Most will look to stay clear of Washington, as they come into this game having lost 6 straight. Not me. Huskies are so close to getting this thing on track and I think they might have found something in the 2nd half against Washington State with their two point guard look. USC is also not playing great right now. Trojans are reeling off 3 straight losses and fresh off a heartbreaking loss at ASU. I just think USC is in a bad place right now and are going to have a hard time putting the Huskies away. Keep in mind Washington absolutely owned the first meeting, beating the Trojans 72-40 back in early January. USC has covered their last 2 and 7 of 9 overall, but that's a positive here. Trojans are 2-11 ATS last 13 at home after 2 or more straight covers and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home after covering 4/5 of their last 6. USC is also a mere 2-6 ATS last 8 games as a favorite. Take Washington! |
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02-13-20 | Thunder v. Pelicans -2 | 123-118 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Pelicans -2 -109 The Pelicans are worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Thunder. New Orleans is playing with a ton of confidence right now. They are different looking team since adding in rookie phenom Zion Williamson. New Orleans has won 3 straight and 6 of 8 overall. Most recently destroying a hot Blazers team 138-117 on their home floor. I expect to see a big effort here from the Pelicans to keep that positive momentum going into the All-Star break. As for the Thunder, they have lost their last two and both were at home, including a 8-point loss to the Spurs last time out as a 8-point favorite. OKC has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and I just don't see them flipping on the switch for one game before the break, especially on the road. There's also triple-revenge in play, as the Thunder have won the first 3 meetings between these two this season. Thing is all 3 of those came in the first two months of the season (last played 12/1). Pelicans are 34-18 ATS last 52 at home revenging a loss of 3-points or less. They are 9-3 ATS last 12 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a favorite. Take New Orleans! |
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02-13-20 | Northern Colorado -4 v. Northern Arizona | Top | 84-54 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Colorado -4 -103 I love the value here with Northern Colorado laying a short number on the road against Northern Arizona. The Bears will be highly motivated for revenge from a 6-point home loss to the Lumberjacks and are getting them at the right time. Lumberjacks have lost 2 of 3 and the lone win was in OT against Big Sky bottom feeder Idaho State. One of the biggest strengths of Northern Arizona is their 3-point shooting. The Lumberjacks average 8 made 3-pointers and are shooting 38% on the season. They rank 2nd in Big Sky in 3-point shooting and yet are 7th in 2-point shooting. Northern Colorado is elite in terms of defending the 3-pointer. The Bears are No. 1 in the Big Sky in 3-point pct. defense and 6th nationally. They are also 6th best in the country in percentage of shots they allow from 3-point range. Last time these two played the Bears offense just wasn't in sync. Northern Colorado comes in averaging 75.2 ppg in their last 5 and the Lumberjacks are giving up 73.2 ppg in their last 5. Bears did make 9 3-pointers in the loss, but shot 38 for a mere 23.7%. On the season they shoot 37% from 3 and Northern Arizona is giving up 35% in conference play. Bears are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games after playing a game as a home favorite, 15-5 in their last 20 on the road after covering 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a cover. Take Northern Colorado! |
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02-13-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas State -2.5 | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Texas State -2½ -109 The Bobcats are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Trojans. Little Rock has a big target on their back in the Sun Belt, as they are 3-games clear of the next best team in the league with a 12-2 mark. The fact that they are a dog here speaks a lot to how much the books respect this Texas State team. There's definitely a lot to like with the Bobcats in this matchup. For starters, they will be out for revenge from a mere 4-point loss at Little Rock earlier this season. This is also a Texas State team that is rolling.After starting out 1-4 in the Sun Belt, Bobcats have won 7 of their last 9 conference games. Really should be 8-1 in this stretch as they gave away a game last time out at App St. They led 36-18 and lost 57-60, scoring just 6 points in the final 10 minutes of the game. No way they lose that if leading scorer Nijal Pearson plays. He'll be back for this one as he simply missed the game for the birth of his daughter. Bobcats have led by 5 or more at the half in each of their last 3 games. Teams that have pulled off this feat are a dominating 81-40 (67%) ATS last 5 years in games with a line of +3 to -3 and facing an opponent that has scored 75 or more in 3 straight games. Take Texas State! |
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02-13-20 | Eastern Kentucky +4 v. Morehead State | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Eastern Kentucky +4 -110 I really like the value here with Eastern Kentucky as a road dog against Morehead State. The Colonels had been on a tear before a small hiccup on the road against SIU Edwardsville. The fact that they only lost by 8, despite shooting 7 for 37 on 3-pointers and missing one of their better players in Russhard Cruickshank, really says a lot about how good this team is. Cruickshank should be ready to go as he's had another 4 days to recover after nearly giving it a go in their last game. Either way the Colonels should bounce back with a big effort here against the Eagles. Morehead State is a misleading 3-1 over their last 4, as they had 3 straight games and wins over the 3 worst teams in the Ohio Valley. Those are their only 3 wins in their last 8 games. EKY is 6-1 ATS last 7 overall, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a road dog. Take Eastern Kentucky! |
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02-13-20 | Drexel +6 v. William & Mary | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money NO-BRAINER on Drexel +6 -109 The price here is too good to pass up with Drexel. These two teams already played once this season and the Dragons won that contest 84-57. It's really been the undoing for the Tribe, who came in at 6-0 in conference play and are now 8-5. Drexel dominated every aspect of that game against William & Mary. I get they too have took a turn for the worse with 4 losses in their last 5, but no way should they be this big of a dog in this fight. Especially with how the Tribe's offense is struggling. William & Mary is averaging 58.2 ppg on 40% shooting in their last 5 games. It would be on thing if their defense was playing well, but they are giving up 70 ppg on 50% shooting during this same 5-game stretch. Tribe are 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS last 4 as a favorite. The road team and underdog are both 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings in this series. Take Drexel! |
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02-13-20 | Tony Finau v. Hideki Matsuyama -112 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 52 h 28 m | Show | |
3* GOLF - BEST BET on Hideki Matsuyama -112 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Hideki Matsuyama to finish better than Tony Finau in this week's Genesis Invitational. |
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02-13-20 | Xander Schauffele -149 v. Bubba Watson | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 52 h 8 m | Show | |
3* GOLF - BEST BET on Xander Schauffele -149 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Xander Schauffele to finish better than Bubba Watson in this week's Genesis Invitational. |
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02-13-20 | Bubba Watson v. Brooks Koepka -123 | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 52 h 8 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - BEST BET on Brooks Koepka -123 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Brooks Koepka to finish better than Bubba Watson in this week's Genesis Invitational. |
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02-12-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +2.5 | 120-116 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Nuggets +2½ -105 Denver is definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Lakers. With how big a public play LA is right now, for the books to hang the Lakers at basically a pick'em, it's clear they like the Nuggets in this spot. There's definitely reason to fade LA. Denver is one of the more difficult places to play, especially for teams who have had to do a lot of travel. The Lakers have been all over the place. After a home game last Thursday, they traveled to Golden State for a game on Saturday, they then returned home for a game Monday and now are back on the road for this one. Add in the distractions of All-Star weekend, which is something they can focus on 100% once this game is over, as they don't play again until next Friday. I don't see Denver caring as much about getting to the break. Every team wants to beat the Lakers and the Nuggets are rolling into this one with a lot of confidence with 4 straight wins and covers. Lakers are also just 2-8 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 3-7 ATS last 10 as a road favorite and 1-6 ATS last 7 on just 1 day of rest. Nuggets are 16-7 ATS last 23 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Denver! |
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02-12-20 | Providence v. St. John's +2 | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on St. John's +2 -105 I really like the spot and the value with St. John's as a home dog against the Friars. The Red Storm come in off 3 straight losses and we know they are going to be motivated here, especially playing with revenge from a earlier 5-point loss at Providence. Friars aren't exactly coming into this one with momentum, as they let one slip away on the road Saturday in a 58-64 loss to Xavier. Providence is a mere 8-20 ATS last 3 seasons after playing their last game on the road, 2-9 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite. While the Friars have struggled in this spot, St. John's has covered 5 of their last 7 off a game where they failed to cover and are a dominant 6-2 ATS last 8 times they have been listed as a home underdog. Take St. John's! |
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02-12-20 | Louisville v. Georgia Tech +6 | 58-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia Tech +6 -105 The Yellow Jackets are worth a look here as a home dog against Louisville. There's no question who the better team is. The Cardinals are 21-3 and ranked No. 5 in the country and Georgia Tech is sitting there with a losing record at 11-13. I think these are the toughest games for a team like Louisville, who is riding high on a 10-game winning streak, which they just extended to 10 with a grueling 80-73 win at home against Virginia. This is the definition of a letdown spot for the Cardinals. On the flips side, Georgia Tech is going to relish the opportunity to try and knock off a Top 5 team on their home floor. Especially given how close the Yellow Jackets were to upsetting the Cardinals in Louisville a few weeks back, as they lost 64-68 as a 13-point dog. Georgia Tech lost their last game 64-73 at Pitt, which only adds more value to this play, as the Yellow Jackets are a dominant 9-3 ATS off a loss this season (23-9 Last 32 off a loss). Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS last 5 games vs a team with a losing record. Take Georgia Tech! |
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02-12-20 | Hawks v. Cavs +2.5 | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Cavs +2½ -110 This is an easy play here on Cleveland as a home dog against the Hawks. I get the Cavs are a bad team and are off an ugly 41-point loss at home to the Clippers, but no way should the Hawks be laying points on the road to any team in the league. Atlanta is 6-23 on the road this season and they aren't just losing a bunch of close games. The Hawks are losing by an average of 13.1 ppg. It's easy to see why with how little defense they play. Atlanta allows 122.1 ppg on 49% shooting away from home. It's been even worse than that in their last 5 overall, as they are giving up 125 ppg on 49% shooting. Hawks are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite and just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they have been asked to lay points on the road. Not to mention they are 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Cleveland! |
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02-12-20 | Kansas v. West Virginia OVER 135 | Top | 58-49 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Big 12 Total PLAY OF THE YEAR on Kansas/West Virginia over 135 -109 I absolutely love the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's massive Big 12 matchup that has No. 14 West Virginia hosting the No. 3 Kansas. These two played back on Jan. 4 at KU and that game finished with a mere 113 points in a 60-53 Jayhawks win. That game had a total of 141.5, so there's clearly been an adjustment by the books for the rematch. I just think we are going to see a lot more offense this time around, in large part because the scene is shifting to Morgantown. West Virginia likes to play fast. They are the top team in Big 12 play in tempo and should be able to dictate the pace at home. Mountaineers average 72.8 ppg on 43% shooting for the season, but that jumps to 78.7 ppg on 47% shooting at home. As for Kansas, they are pretty consistent regardless of the venue, as they average 75.0 ppg on 48.6% shooting overall and that drops just slightly to 73.4 ppg on 48.3% shooting on the road. I think both teams are going to get to 70-points in this one. In that first meeting, which saw WV score just 53 points, they couldn't have shot it any worse. Mountaineers were 19-59 (32.2%) from the field and 3-14 (21.4%) from deep. They also went just 12-22 (54.5%) from the free throw line. Kansas wasn't much better going 19-47 (40.4%), 3-17 (17.6%) from deep and 19-30 (63.3%) on free throws. OVER is also 5-0 last 5 times the Jayhawks have been listed as a dog! Take the OVER! |
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02-11-20 | Spurs v. Thunder -7.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Thunder -7½ -109 Easy play here on OKC at home against the Spurs. Big time bounce back spot for the Thunder off a hard fought 1-point loss at home to the Celtics. OKC is still 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games and will have a huge edge here playing on 1-day of rest. Not to mention the Thunder have had to do zero travel of late, playing their 4th straight at home. As for the Spurs, they are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after an excruciating 120-127 loss at Denver last night. San Antonio had a 23-point lead over the Nuggets before suffering an absolute meltdown. This will be their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. I don't think there's any recovering from this for the Spurs until after the All-Star break. Spurs are 2-11 ATS last 13 road games in the month of February, 4-12 ATS last 16 when playing 6 or more games in a 10 day stretch and 2-11 ATS last 13 after losing 4/5 of their last 6. Thunder are 13-4 ATS last 17 after winning 4 of their last 5. Take OKC! |
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02-11-20 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +13 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - SEC ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +13 -110 I absolutely love the value here with the Commodores as a big double-digit home dog against the Wildcats. Vanderbilt comes in with a 1-9 record in SEC play, which I think has them way undervalued, especially with how well they have been playing. Commodores have covered 4 straight and all 4 have come against some quality opponents. They lost by just 9 as a 21-point road dog at Kentucky, then lost by just 6 at home to Florida as a 11.5-point dog. They proceeded to then beat LSU 99-90 as a 11.5-point home dog and last time out lost by just 10 at Mississippi State as a 15.5-point dog. Even though it's a long-shot, I can guarantee you Vanderbilt is approaching this game with the confidence they not only keep it close, but win outright. For a Kentucky team that is sitting at 8-2 and fresh off a big road win at Tennessee, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see them lay an egg here. Wildcats are just 2-9 ATS this season as a favorite of 10 or more and Commodores are 4-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0 last 4 as a dog. Take Vanderbilt! |
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02-11-20 | Bowling Green +7.5 v. Akron | 59-74 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bowling Green +7½ -114 The Falcons are worth a look here as a big road dog against the Zips. Bowling Green suffered a big blow when one of their best players, Dylan Frye, decided to just up and leave the program. Frye was a big part of that team, but if there's a team that can overcome a loss like that it's the Falcons. I feel the books have inflated the number here on Akron too much. The Zips snapped a two game skid with a win at home over Eastern Michigan, but it was far from a dominant showing. Akron won by the slimmest of margins 59-58, coming no where close to covering as a 12-point favorite. Zips continued to struggle from the field and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Bowling Green won this game outright. Falcons are 13-5 ATS last 18 times they have been listed as a dog, 13-3 ATS last 16 off a home conference win and 14-5 ATS last 19 on the road off a home win. Take Bowling Green! |
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02-10-20 | Suns v. Lakers -12.5 | 100-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Lakers -12½ -109 I got no problem laying the big number with the Lakers at home on Monday. LA avoided a second straight loss with a 125-120 win at Golden State and I think there's some motivation here for them to play well in these last two games before the All-Star break. As for the Suns, they are really struggling to get going. Phoenix has lost 5 of their last 6. While their lone win was a 36-point victory over the Rockets, Houston was resting guys and in a massive flat spot in the 2nd leg of a back-to-back after beating these Lakers the night before. This also has to be a tired Suns team. Phoenix will be playing their 4th game in the last 6 days and 6th in the last 9. I just don't see them having the energy needed to keep this game close and let's not forget the Suns are still dealing with a lot of injuries right now. Phoenix is 7-18 ATS last 25 when playing 6 or more games in a 10-day stretch and are 3-7 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Lakers are 7-0 ATS this season at home off a road win. Take Los Angeles! |
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02-10-20 | Florida State +8.5 v. Duke | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Florida State +8½ -115 Easy play here on the Seminoles as a near double-digit dog at Duke. I just think there's too much value with FSU in this spot. Blue Devils come into this game off an improbable 98-96 OT win on the road against rival North Carolina. Not only did the game go to OT, but Duke had to rally from double-digits down late in the 2nd half and eventually won the game on a last second shot. I know the Seminoles are not a team to overlook and I expect Duke to play hard, I just don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to pull away and win this thing by more than the number. In fact, if they struggle at all this is a game the Seminoles can win outright. FSU can light it up. Seminoles are shooting 46% from the field and 37% from deep on the season. Duke is just 3-15 ATS last 2 seasons when playing a team at least 15 games into the season that is hitting 45% or better from the field. Blue Devils are also 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Florida State! |
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02-09-20 | Heat +5 v. Blazers | 109-115 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Heat +5 -105 I like the value here with Miami catching a decent number on the road against the Blazers. I just think we are getting a good price on the Heat here due to the fact that they won't have Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro. However, they are expected to debut a couple of their new additions in Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala. The other big there here is I think this is a really tough spot for Portland. Blazers just suffered a crushing 114-117 loss at Utah on Friday in the second leg of a back-to-back. A game they led by 14 at the half and got screwed on a non-goaltending call late. Now they are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and this is where their lack of depth really hurts them. Miami lost 97-105 at Sacramento on Friday, but the Heat are a dominant 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games off a loss. Miami has struggled on the road, but Portland is a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 4-9 ATS last 13 off a SU loss. Take Miami! |
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02-09-20 | St. Louis BattleHawks v. Dallas Renegades OVER 51.5 | 15-9 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
4* XFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on St. Louis BattleHawks/Dallas Renegades over 51½ -110 I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's XFL matchup between St Louis and Dallas. I just think we are going to see plenty of high-scoring games early on in the XFL. Both games on Saturday hit the 50 point mark and that was with one team doing the majority of the scoring. I think we see both the Renegades and BattleHawks light up the scoreboard on Sunday. Take the OVER 51.5! |
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02-09-20 | Evansville +12.5 v. Bradley | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Evansville +12½ -107 I really like the value here with the Purple Aces as a huge road dog against the Braves. Evansville is a team the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with, as they are winless in MVC play at 0-11. That has left the books no choice but to inflate the number in their games and I just feel there's a ton of value here. While the losses keep mounting, the Purple Aces have been on the verge of that first conference win. They just took Southern Illinois to OT at home in their last game, lost by just 12 at home to UNI in their previous game and only lost by 11 at Illinois St and by 2 at Valpo in their two before that. Bradley has lost 4 of their last 6 and are off back-to-back double-digit losses at Loyola and Drake. I just think they are going to have a hard time here giving an Evansville team they beat by 20 on the road their full attention. Purple Aces' ability to defend the 3-pointer (29th nationally) is also huge, as the Braves are 313th in 2-point shooting. Take Evansville! |
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02-09-20 | Patrick Cantlay -160 v. Scott Piercy | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - Pebble Beach Final Round CASH COW on Patrick Cantlay -160 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Patrick Cantlay to finish better than Scott Piercy in Sunday's final round action at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am! |
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02-08-20 | Pepperdine v. Pacific -3 | 78-79 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Pacific -3 -109 Easy play here on the Tigers as a small home favorite against the Waves. Pacific is rolling right now, as they come in having won 3 straight to improve to 6-4 in WCC action. Tigers are tough to beat at home, where they are 12-4 this season and they already beat Pepperdine on the road earlier this year. Tigers are 32-15 ATS last 47 home games off 2 straight conference wins and should have a field day offensively in this one, as the Waves are giving up 83.2 ppg on 49% shooting in road games this season. While some of that has to do with their non-conf schedule, they are allowing 81.2 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5 games. Pepperdine is off a 91-77 win at home over Santa Clara, but are just 2-7 ATS last 9 off a SU win. They are also 2-8 ATS last 10 after winning 2 of 3 and 1-7 ATS last 8 after scoring 80 or more. Take Pacific! |
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02-08-20 | Northern Arizona v. Weber State -2 | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Weber State -2 -109 I really like the value here with the Wildcats at basically a pick'em on their home floor against Northern Arizona. Weber State has caught fire here of late with 3 wins in their last 4 to go from 2-6 in Big Sky play to 5-7. I look for them to build on that momentum and get revenge from an earlier 8-point loss at Northern Arizona. The big thing to note with the Lumberjacks win in the first meeting is they only won by 8 on their home floor, despite shooting 57% from the field and 56% from behind the 3-point line. You shoot like that, you should win by 20+. I just don't see them having near the success on the road, where they are scoring just 68.8 ppg on 43.7% shooting. With Weber State scoring 80.9 ppg on 50% shooting at home, I just don't see Northern Arizona being able to score enough to win this one. Wildcats are 70-44 (61%) ATS last 114 when revenging a road loss and 32-15 ATS last 47 at home with a line of +3 to -3. Take Weber State! |
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02-08-20 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse -8 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Syracuse -8 -110 Easy play here on the Orange at home against the Demon Deacons. Syracuse should have zero problem beating Wake Forest by double-digits Saturday. Lot to like with the Orange in this one, as they have had a full week off to get their minds right following a tough home loss to Duke last Saturday. Huge motivational spot for Syracuse to put their 2-game losing streak to rest. As for the Demon Deacons, this is not an ideal spot for them playing on the road for a second straight game after a grueling loss at home to Louisville on Wednesday. I just don't think 2 days is enough for Wake Forest to get their minds right for this game and they have had their troubles keeping games respectable on the road (3 of their last 4 on the road have resulted in losses by 10 or more). Demon Deacons are also just 2-7 overall, which is worth noting, as they are a mere 14-33 ATS last 47 on the road when they come in having lost 6/7 of their last 8. They are also just 3-13 ATS last 16 road games off a conference loss. Favorite has also covered 5 straight in the series. Take Syracuse! |
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02-08-20 | Pelicans v. Pacers -2 | 124-117 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
4* BEST BET on Pacers -2 -109 Analysis will be posted shortly |
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02-08-20 | South Florida +8.5 v. Memphis | 75-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Situational ATS DESTROYER on South Florida +8½ -109 I like the value here with South Florida as a near double-digit dog on the road against Memphis. While the Tigers come in having won 3 straight, only one of those was by more than 7 points and that was against a bad Temple team last time out. I just don't think this Memphis team can be trusted to lay a number like this. South Florida has got some momentum going with back-to-back wins and are off one of their best games this season, beating UCF by 16 at home last Saturday. Bulls will also draw plenty of confidence and motivation from a near upset of Memphis at home earlier this season, which they lost by just 4 points. Having a week to prepare for USF is huge, especially given that Memphis has quick turnaround after playing on Wednesday. Tigers also struggle with turnovers and had 22 against the Bulls in that first meeting. South Florida should have a big edge there again, which will make it really hard on Memphis to pull away. Bulls are 18-6 ATS last 24 off a home win, 13-3 ATS last 16 after playing 2 straight games as a favorite, 14-4 ATS last 18 off 2 straight wins and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 off two straight covers as a favorite. Take South Florida! |
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02-08-20 | Purdue v. Indiana UNDER 129.5 | 74-62 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Purdue/Indiana under 129½ -110 I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Big Ten showdown between Purdue and Indiana. Don't be fooled by the 104 points that the Boilermakers put up in Wednesday's win at home over Iowa. Hawkeyes have the worst defense in the conference and were in a huge flat spot off a big home win over Illinois. I look for Purdue to go right back to their ways of struggling to score, especially with this game being on the road. Boilermakers are averaging a mere 54.8 ppg in regulation on the road in Big Ten play and have not scored more than 63 points in regulation in those 6 road games. Indiana only gives up 66.1 ppg on 40% shooting at home. Purdue's defense isn't as good on the road as it is at home, but they are giving up just 64.3 ppg on the highway and are facing an Indiana offense that has scored 49 and 59 points in their last two games. UNDER is 11-2 in the Hoosiers last 13 home games off a road loss and 9-1 in their last 10 at home if they have failed to cover 4/5 of their last 6. UNDER is 7-2 in Purdue's last 9 after scoring 90 or more points and 6-2 in their last 8 on the road. Take the UNDER! |
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02-08-20 | Furman -4 v. Western Carolina | 82-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Furman -4 -109 The Paladins are worth a look here as a small road favorite at Western Carolina. Furman is sitting tied on top the Southern Conference at 9-2 with East Tennessee State and are one of the better small conference teams not a lot of people know about. Paladins are 73rd right now in KenPom. Western Carolina in comparison is sitting at No. 158. Furman comes into this one playing extremely well, as they have won 4 straight, most recently destroying Mercer 79-57 at home. That was the same Mercer team they only beat by 2 on the road earlier this season. The Catamounts fall into a similar spot, as they gave the Paladins a really good game back in January, losing by just 4 on the road. I don't see Furman playing around with Western Carolina this time around. Look for turnovers to be the difference maker, as the Paladins are 26th nationally in defensive turnover rate, while Western Carolina is 236th in offensive turnover rate. Paladins are also 13-4 ATS last 17 as a road favorite and 13-4 ATS last 17 off a conference home win. Take Furman! |
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02-08-20 | VMI v. The Citadel | 75-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on VMI PK -110 I like the value here with the Keydets at a pick'em on the road against The Citadel. All you have to do here is look at the recent history between these two teams to see the value with VMI. The Keydets have covered 9 of the last 10 meetings in the series and are covering by almost 7 ppg. You also have to factor in all the injuries that the Bulldogs are dealing with. Not only do they got several key guys out, but those that are able to play are playing at less than 100%. On top of that, The Citadel is sitting winless in Southern Conference play at 0-11. They aren't just losing, they are getting beat badly, as 6 of their last 7 losses are by 9 or more points. Playing another bad team hasn't helped them out much either. Bulldogs are 15-34-2 ATS last 51 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. VMI on the other hand is 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have faced a team that's allowing 77 or more points/game. Take VMI! |
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02-08-20 | Rhode Island v. George Washington UNDER 141 | 82-51 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island/George Washington under 141 -110 The UNDER is definitely worth a look in Saturday's early action out of the A-10 between George Washington and Rhode Island. I just think the total here is way too high for this matchup. The Rams are one of the best defensive teams in the Atlantic 10 and couldn't matchup better with the Colonials. George Washington runs basically their entire offense thru the pick and roll and Rhode Island is exceptional at defending that action, ranking 28th best in the country. Rams have also really hit their stride on the defensive side of the ball here of late and are giving up just 64.3 ppg in conference play. The UNDER is 7-3 in their 10 conference games. Colonials are also struggling offensively right now. They managed just 47 points at St Bonaventure last time out. A game they were missing starting point guard Armel Potter, who is questionable to play in this one. Prior to that they scored just 54 on the road against Richmond. You need both teams to score to hit a total like this and I just don't see it happening. Take the UNDER! |
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02-07-20 | Rockets v. Suns UNDER 235.5 | 91-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Suns under 235½ -109 The UNDER is worth a look here. Books have set a massive number on the total for this one, but I have hard time seeing the pace being there for these two to eclipse the mark. Houston is in a massive letdown spot here playing on the second leg of a back-to-back road set after playing last night in LA. A game they won 121-111, which I think only makes it that more likely they don't show up for this one. You also have to factor in they are going to rest Russell Westbrook, as they continue to keep him from playing both games in a back-to-back scenario. As for the Suns, they are really hurting with injuries. Aaron Baynes, Dario Saric, Tyler Johnson, Ty Jerome and Cam Johnson are all out for this one. Also, while Phoenix is at home on a day of rest, this figures to be a tired Suns team. As they had to play Sunday at Milwaukee, Monday at Brooklyn and then Wednesday at Detroit. Suns are only scoring 105 ppg over their last 4 games, well below their season mark of 112.5 ppg. UNDER has cashed in 5 of the Rockets last 7 on 0 days rest and 5 of their last 7 as a road favorite. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Suns last 7 home games. Take the UNDER! |
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02-07-20 | Pistons v. Thunder UNDER 217.5 | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Pistons/Thunder under 217½ -110 I really like the value here with the UNDER between the Pistons and Thunder. This is just too big a number given what Detroit has to work with on the road. The Pistons are without Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard long-term. Derrick Rose, Markieff Morris and Svi Mykhailiuk won't be available for this one. Detroit also just traded away their best player in Andre Drummond. They did get John Henson and Brandon Knight in the deal, but hard to imagine the suit up here and even if they do it's hard seeing their offense do much of anything. Just a couple of games ago we saw Detroit manage just 82 points on the road at Memphis and I would be shocked if they sniffed 100 in this one. UNDER is 9-4 in the Pistons last 13 as a road dog and 4-1 in their last 5 trips to OKC. UNDER is also 4-1 in the last 5 overall for the Thunder. Take the UNDER! |
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02-07-20 | Iona +6 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 73-52 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iona +6 I love the value here with the Gaels as a decently priced road dog against the Bobcats. It hasn't been the easiest of seasons for Iona, as they try to make it work under interim head coach Tra Arnold, but this is just too good a price to pass up. Quinnipiac is setting 3rd in the MAAC at 6-4, but they are just 2-4 in league play after starting out 4-0. Most recently losing by 16 on the road at Niagara, who is ranked just slightly higher than the Gaels. Bobcats have been a good fade at home off a road loss. They are just 5-15 ATS last 20 at home off a conference road loss and a mere 1-11 ATS in their last 12 at home off a road loss by 10 or points. Quinnipiac has also not had much luck against teams that make a living from the 3-point line. Bobcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 at home vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Take Iona! |
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02-07-20 | Scott Piercy v. James Hahn +155 | 66-70 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - BEST BET on James Hahn +155 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on James Hahn to finish better than Scott Piercy in Friday's 2nd round action at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am! |
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02-06-20 | Santa Clara +3 v. Pepperdine | 77-91 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Santa Clara +3 -115 I really like the value here with the Broncos as a road dog against the Waves. These two teams just played two weeks ago at Santa Clara and it came down to the wire with Pepperdine winning 90-86 in OT. Since 1997 the Broncos are 60% ATSS when revening a same season loss. Most might think the Waves are the way with this time the game being played on their home floor. However, Pepperdine is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. They are also 2-10 ATS last 12 games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS last 8 as a home favorite. Road team and underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 games in this series. Take Santa Clara! |
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02-06-20 | Pelicans v. Bulls +5 | 125-119 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bulls +5 -105 The Bulls are worth a look here as a home dog against the Pelicans. The books are absolutely begging you to take New Orleans here, as they are feeding into the Zion Williamson hype. I know Chicago has disappointed and are dealing with some injuries, but they are going to show up with a big effort here. Zion has looked great, but the Pelicans are just 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS in the 7 games since he made his debut. I really think this is a tough spot for them having just recently played at Houston and then at home against the Bucks. Really easy for them to look past a struggling Bulls team on the road. Pelicans are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Chicago in the meantime will be fresh, as they have been off since Sunday and are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Chicago! |
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02-06-20 | North Texas v. Middle Tennessee +8.5 | 75-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Middle Tennessee +8½ -110 I like the value here with the Blue Raiders as a near double-digit dog at home against the Mean Green. North Texas just had their 8-game winning streak snapped in an ugly 75-84 loss at Rice as a 8.5-point favorite. Prior to that they struggled to put away a bad UTEP team. I just think it's asking a lot for the Mean Green to win here in blowout fashion. Middle Tennessee is just 2-8 in C-USA play, but they have won 2 of their last 3, including a win at UTSA in their last game as a 8-point dog. Blue Raiders haven't been nearly as bad as their conference record and that shows in their 6-4 ATS mark in C-USA play. Blue Raiders have gone 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a dog and are 10-2 ATS last 12 off a conference win as a dog of 6 or more. Home team has also covered 8 of the last 10 meetings in the series. Take Middle Tennessee! |
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02-06-20 | Cincinnati v. Wichita State -4 | Top | 80-79 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Wichita State -4 -110 I love the value here with the Shockers as a small home favorite against the Bearcats. I just feel like this is too good a price to pass up with Wichita State at home given how motivated the Shockers are going to be off a close 3-point loss at Tulsa. Not to mention Wichita State is 13-1 on their home floor this season. Cincinnati has won 4 straight, but 3 of those 4 were at home and the other was at a bad Temple team. We saw these same Bearcats lost by 11 at Memphis on the road. I also think this is a really tough spot for Cincinnati coming off that emotional 64-62 win at home over Houston, where they rallied from 15 down to get the win. Bearcats are 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 3-13 ATS last 16 as a road dog. Shockers are 7-3 ATS last 10 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Wichita State! |
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02-06-20 | Elon +3.5 v. NC-Wilmington | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Elon +3½ -110 I like the value here with the Phoenix getting points on the road against the Seahawks. I just don't think UNC Wilmington should be favored. They are a mere 2-9 in CAA play and their two wins are both by a mere 2-points. They come in off back-to-back double-digit losses on the road to Townson and most recently at James Madison by 17. These two teams played earlier this season and the Phoenix won by 17 at home, which I think speaks for itself in the value with them getting points in the rematch. UNC Wilmington simply can't score. They are last in the CAA in both offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Not to mention they struggle with turnovers and aren't good on the boards. They also are bottom of the pack in defense. Seahawks are 1-5 ATS last 6 as a home favorite and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Elon! |
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02-06-20 | Chez Reavie v. Pat Perez -119 | 1-0 | Loss | -119 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - BEST BET on Pat Perez -119 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Pat Perez to finish better than Chez Reavie in this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM. |
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02-06-20 | Jason Day -145 v. Phil Mickelson | 0-1 | Loss | -145 | 32 h 38 m | Show | |
4* GOLF - BEST BET on Jason Day -145 Golf matchups use a predictive statistical model based on recent ability shown in key areas of the game and course fit. This play is on Jason Day to finish better than Phil Mickelson in this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM. |
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02-05-20 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota OVER 124.5 | 52-70 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Over/Under TOTAL DESTROYER on Wisconsin/Minnesota over 124½ -110 The books have completely missed the mark here with the total in Wednesday's Big Ten matchup between Wisconsin and Minnesota. I get the Badgers like to play slow, but there's just too much value with this low total to not take a shot on the OVER. Gophers are a different offensive team on their home floor and the OVER is 10-1 in Minnesota's last 11 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less and the average combined score in these games is 149. OVER is also a perfect 6-0 in the Gophers last 6 at home after a game where they scored 60 or fewer points. Take the OVER! |
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02-05-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 218 | Top | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA - Northwest Div TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Jazz under 218 -109 I love the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA matchup that has the Jazz hosting the Nuggets. After losing 4 straight where the defense has not been playing well, I think we are going to get a big time effort from Utah at home in this one. One of the reasons the Jazz's defense was slipping was the team was just worn down. They should be refreshed here playing on a full 3 days of rest. Last time out Utah lost 107-124 at Portland as a 8-point favorite and that's worth noting. UNDER is 26-9 in the Jazz's last 35 off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more. Another big thing here is Denver will be playing this game on no rest, as they had to host the Blazers last night. Look for a Nuggets team that ranks 29th in pace to play even slower than normal on no rest. UNDER is also 31-9 (78%) last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off 2 or more consecutive road losses in a matchup of two good teams that have won between 60% to 75% of their games. Take the UNDER! |
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02-05-20 | Western Carolina -5 v. Samford | 78-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Western Carolina -5 -105 Easy play here on the Catamounts laying a really short number on the road against Samford. The Bulldogs are simply one of the worst teams in the conference. Samford has lost 8 straight games with each of the last 7 setbacks coming by 7 or more. There's a lot the Bulldogs do well. They are 9th in the Southern Conference in offensive efficiency and 10th (last) in effective field goal percentage. They are also 10th in both of these categories on the defensive side of the ball. Samford is a mere 2-9 ATS last 11 games vs a team with a winning record, 2-11 ATS last 13 as a dog and 1-9 ATS last 10 after giving up 80 or more in their last game. Catamounts should win and win big. Take Western Carolina! |
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02-05-20 | Suns v. Pistons UNDER 220 | 108-116 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Suns/Pistons under 220 -109 The UNDER is definitely worth a look here between the Pistons and Suns. These are two teams that are really dealing with some big injuries right now. Detroit's been without Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard for a while. They won't have Derrick Rose or Svi Mykhailiuk for this one and Markieff Morris is questionable. Pistons were in a similar spot in their last game and managed just 82 points on 35% shooting at Memphis a game that saw a combined 178 points with a total of 223.5. As for the Suns, Cameron Johnson, Aron Baynes, Tyler Johnson, Ty Jerome, Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky are all expected to miss this game. Much like the Pistons the Suns struggled to overcome these injuries in their last game, scoring just 97 on the road at Brooklyn, who is far from a good defensive team. Take the UNDER! |
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02-05-20 | Mercer v. Furman OVER 142.5 | Top | 57-79 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Southern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Mercer/Furman over 142½ -114 I love the value here with the OVER between Mercer and Furman in Wednesday's action out of the Southern Conference. Both of these teams come into this game clicking on the offensive side of the ball. The Bears are averaging 78.2 ppg on 53% shooting in their last 5 and the Paladins are averaging 77.6 ppg on 46% shooting in their last 5. It's worth noting the spread here, with Furman currently laying 11-points at home. The OVER is 9-2 the last 2 seasons when the Paladins are a home favorite of 10 or more and the average score in these games is 159.9. Take the OVER! |
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02-05-20 | Wofford v. VMI OVER 137.5 | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wofford/VMI over 137½ -115 I really like the value here with the OVER between Wofford and VMI. I think we are getting some value here with the number due to the fact that these two played to a combined score of just 120 in an earlier meeting. Thing is both teams shot poorly in that matchup with VMI connecting on just 35% of their attempts and Wofford at 43%. The two also went a combined 15 of 55 from 3-point range. Wofford averages 10 made 3's a game and VMI averages 11, so that was clearly an off night for both teams. Note each of the previous 3 meetings between these two saw a combined score of 166 or more. VMI comes in losers of 3 straight and that's a positive here, as the OVER is 16-4 in their last 20 off 3 straight losses and 6-0 in their last 6 at home after 2 or more losses. OVER is also 20-8 in Wofford's last 28 off a conference win by 20 or more and 8-1 in their last 9 off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take the OVER! |
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02-04-20 | Air Force +11 v. Nevada | 54-88 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Air Force +11 -112 The Falcons are definitely worth a look here as a double-digit road dog at Nevada. This is just way too many points for the Wolf Pack to be laying with how they are playing. Nevada is just 3-5 over their last 8 games and have lost their last two. Air Force has lost 4 straight and failed to cover all 4, but that's definitely playing into this favorable price we are getting. Falcons will be extremely motivated here and have had a full week to prepare, having not played since last Tuesday at home against Fresno State. As for Nevada, they were in action on Saturday. Air Force is a profitable 28-17-1 ATS when they have an advantage in rest under head coach Dave Pilipovich. Falcons are also 15-7 ATS last 22 games vs a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Air Force! |
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02-04-20 | Hornets v. Rockets UNDER 224.5 | 110-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hornets/Rockets under 224½ -110 I like the value with the UNDER in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Rockets hosting the Hornets. As good as Houston is offensively they are shooting a mere 44% over their last 5 games and figure to have a hard time putting up a big number here. Not because the Hornets are a juggernaut on defense, but because Charlotte plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league. Not to mention the Hornets are arguably the worst offensive team in the league right now. Charlotte is shooting 42% from the field in their last 5 and 42% on the road this season. In the Hornets last 10 games the most they have scored in any game is 112 and 7 of the 10 have seen them score 100 or less. UNDER has gone 9-3 in Charlotte's last 12 games vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 7-2 in Rockets last 9 vs a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER! |
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02-04-20 | Auburn v. Arkansas OVER 143 | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - SEC TOTAL PLAY OF THE MONTH on Auburn/Arkansas over 143 -115 We should have no problem cashing the OVER in tonight's big SEC showdown between Arkansas and No. 11 Auburn. These are not only two of the top offenses in the SEC, but both of these teams like to play fast. Razorbacks are 3rd in the SEC in tempo and Auburn is 5th. Auburn comes in having scored 74 or more in 4 straight games and have done so in each of their last two games despite shooting worse than 38% from the field. Arkansas has scored 70 or more in each of their last 4 and 7 of their last 8 overall. Razorbacks are also giving up 75 ppg over their last 5. Last time they were at home they allowed 79 points on 50% shooting to South Carolina. OVER is 5-1 in Arkansas' last 6 as a home favorite and 40-22 in Auburn's last 62 on the road against top tier teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ ppg at least 15 games into the season. Take the OVER! |
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02-04-20 | Tennessee +6 v. Alabama | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tennessee +6 -110 I like the value here with the Volunteers as a decently priced road dog against the Crimson Tide. Alabama went on that ridiculous 12-game ATS run and I think it simply has them overvalued right now. Tide have failed to cover each of their last 3 games. During this stretch they only won by 3 at home against K-State as a 9.5-point favorite, lost by 14 at LSU as a mere 3-point dog and most recently lost by 4 as a 3.5-point home favorite against Arkansas. Big reason things have gone south for Alabama is injuries. I think the loss of Herb Jones is huge as he was one of their top defenders. Without him they let the Razorbacks shoot 48% from the field and while Tennessee has lost 3 straight they have shot the ball well. Vols are shooting 48% from the field in their last 5 games. Tennessee is a profitable 36-18 ATS off 2 straight conference losses, while Alabama is a mere 2-10 ATS last 12 when they come in having failed to cover 3 of their last 4. Take Tennessee! |
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02-03-20 | Eastern Washington v. Northern Arizona -1 | Top | 77-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - Big Sky PLAY OF THE MONTH on Northern Arizona -1 -110 I love the value here with the Lumberjacks at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Eagles. I get Eastern Washington is sitting on top the Big Sky right now, but Northern Arizona is rolling right now. Lumberjacks have won 5 straight and are a strong 7-2 at home this season. Speaking of playing at home, this will be the 4th straight home game for the Lumberjacks, which is huge this time of year. As for the Eagles, they just played at Sacramento State on Saturday and will be back on the road with just 1 day of rest. Another thing here is Eastern Washington has not defended the 3-point line very well and this Northern Arizona team can light you up from deep. They are averaging 9 made 3's on their home floor and are shooting 39% from behind the 3-point line at home. Lumberjacks are also 8-1 ATS last 9 vs a team with a winning record, including a 6-1 ATS mark in their last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Northern Arizona! |
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02-03-20 | Warriors v. Wizards -5.5 | 125-117 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Wizards -5½ -105 I really like the value here with Washington laying what I feel is a short number at home against the Warriors. I think we are getting such a great number with the Wizards due to the Warriors coming in off a 131-112 win at Cleveland, but you can't read anything into that win with how bad the Cavs are playing right now. Prior to that win the Warriors had gone just 1-15 in their previous 16 with 12 of those 15 losses coming by more than the number here. I get Washington doesn't have that much better of a record than Golden State, but they are 11-11 at home and the Warriors are 4-22 on the road. Wizards also come in having won two straight and covered 5 of their last 7. Golden State is also just 9-21 ATS last 30 off a win by 15 or more and 2-9 ATS off a win as a road dog (0-3 this season). Take Washington! |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show |
5* NFL - Super Bowl 54 (KC/SF) Total NO-BRAINER on 49ers/Chiefs under 54½ -105 I'm confident we see Super Bowl 54 finish UNDER the mark. This will be the 7th time since 2000 that we have seen a total north of 50 in the Super Bowl and the UNDER has cashed in 5 of the previous 6. The only game that went OVER was Super Bowl 51 when the Patriots made that ridiculous comeback from down 28-3 to force OT and win 34-28. Just look at last year, everyone was calling for a shootout between the Rams and Patriots. The total for the game was 58 and it ended up being 13-3. I just think the number here is too high. Sure the Chiefs have the best QB in the league and all these weapons on offense, but they are going up against a really good 49ers defense. Also, San Francisco is a run heavy team and are going to try and limit the possessions of KC by chewing up the clock. Another big thing here is the Chiefs defense. Kansas City has really made remarkable strides on the defensive side of the ball. Not just from last year, but from earlier this season. KC's run defense gets a really bad wrap, but in their last 6 games they are giving up just 89 yards/game. Everyone thought Derrick Henry was going to run all over them and they held him to 69 yards on 19 attempts. Lastly, you got to factor in the edge these two defenses have with the two weeks to prepare for this game. There's just not a lot at this point that's not on tape for either offense, so both defense are going to be well prepared. I'm not saying it will be like last year, but the number is too high. Take the UNDER! |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs -120 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 58 h 5 m | Show |
5* NFL - Super Bowl 54 VEGAS INSIDER on Chiefs -120 I really like the Chiefs to come out on top in Super Bowl 54. I've been saying Kansas City was the team to beat for a while now and I actually think the number here should be closer to the Chiefs -3 than a pick'em. No disrespect to the 49ers, but I just think they are up against it here. No question who has the better quarterback in this game. Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the league and he's arguably got the most talent around him. I get the 49ers defense is good, but beating the Vikings and Packers is not exactly saying much. Sure Green Bay has Rodgers, but just look at what Rodgers has to work with compared to Mahomes. I also don't know that the Chiefs defense is all that far off from San Francisco. They don't have the talent up front like the 49ers, but as a whole these two were actually more similar than you might think. In fact, the Chiefs gave up fewer points/game and played a tougher schedule in terms of offenses faced. Say what you want about Andy Reid and him not winning the big game, the guy is one of the best in the business when it comes to getting his team ready with an extra week to prepare. As a head coach his teams are 18-3 ATS in the regular-season and 5-1 ATS in the playoffs. I just think Mahomes and that offense will be too much for SF to overcome. Take Kansas City! |
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02-02-20 | Nuggets v. Pistons UNDER 216 | Top | 123-128 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA - Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Nuggets/Pistons under 216 -110 I really like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Nuggets and Pistons. I just don't see either one of these offenses being in sync with this early start time. The game is tipping off at 12:30 EST, which means it's going to feel like playing at 10:30 am for the Nuggets. This also figures to be a tired Denver team, who just finished up a back-to-back Thursday/Friday at Milwaukee after a game at home against Utah the night before. Detroit could only manage 92 points on 35% shooting at home against the Raptors in their last game and it doesn't figure to be much better for them in this one. UNDER is 15-5 in the Nuggets last 20 games against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road. Take the UNDER! |
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02-02-20 | CS-Northridge v. Hawaii -6 | 75-80 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS CASH COW on Hawaii -6 -109 I like the value here with the Rainbow Warriors at home against CS-Northridge. Hawaii is at a huge advantage here, as they get ready to play their 4th straight at home. Rainbow Warriors haven't had to leave their island in over two weeks. They have also won each of those last 3 at home. The Matadores have been hit or miss of late, as they have alternated wins and losses since a 3-game winning streak around the new year holiday. They come in off a win at home over UC-Santa Barbara, but lost their previous game at Fullerton. While Hawaii hasn't had to leave home, Northridge will be playing their 5th road game in their last 7 games overall. Take Hawaii! |
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02-01-20 | Lakers v. Kings +6 | 129-113 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Late Night ATS DOMINATOR on Kings +6 -105 The Kings are definitely worth a look here as a decently priced home dog against the Lakers. I think a lot of people thought LA was going to come out and light the world on fire in their first game since the tragic death of Kobe Bryant, but instead they lost 119-127 at home to the Blazers as a 13-point favorite. I just think it's going to take some time for the Lakers to get back in the groove of things and it's really hard to see them playing well in this spot. LA will be on no rest and even more so off the emotional night that was centered around Kobe. I could see LA not showing up at all for this game. Sacramento on the other hand is going to be motivated for a shot at beating the Lakers and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won outright. Take Sacramento! |
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02-01-20 | Clemson -1 v. Wake Forest | 44-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS MONEYMAKER on Clemson -1 -110 I really like the value here with the Tigers at basically a pick'em at home against the Demon Deacons. Clemson is coming off a big time 71-70 win at home over Syracuse a game the Tigers can get a lot of confidence from. Orange had really been playing well coming into that game and Clemson won despite a poor effort from their best player in Aamir Simms. Look for the Tigers to have their way here against a struggling Wake Forest team. Demon Deacons have lost 6 of 7 with their only win against BC at home. While Clemson only won by 3 at home over WF in an earlier meeting, they shot 50% from the field and it really should have been a much bigger blowout. Tigers are 23-10 ATS last 33 vs a team with a losing record and 8-2 ATS last 10 off a SU win. Road team has also covered 5 of the last 7 and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6. Take Clemson! |
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02-01-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Arkansas State -2 | 83-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arkansas State -2 -110 I like the value here with the Red Wolves at basically a pick'em at home against the Chanticleers. This is just too good a price to pass up with Arkansas State. Red Wolves are off a home loss to Appalachian State, but had won 3 straight prior to the setback. Coastal Carolina is the perfect team for them to get back on track against. Chanticleers have lost 4 straight, three of those at home. The most recent was on the road Thursday at Little Rock and they got annihilated by 17. Hard to see them showing up with the kind of effort needed to win this game on just 1 day of rest. Coastal Carolina is 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and the Red Wolves are 10-1 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and 6-1 ATS last 7 as a home favorite. Take Arkansas State! |
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02-01-20 | Wyoming v. San Jose State -3.5 | 71-66 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on San Jose State -3½ -109 I really like the value here with the Spartans as a small home favorite against the Cowboys. San Jose State has lost 4 of 5 and fresh off a 26-point blowout loss at Boise State. It might make you think they are a team to avoid, but Wyoming is a team they should honestly be favored by more against. Cowboys have lost 8 straight and all but one of those came by fewer than 9 points, so it's not like they are close to winning. Wyoming is 0-10 in Mountain West play and for them to be favored by this little on the road is a bit of a joke. Spartans have covered 4 of their last 5 at home and are a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take San Jose State! |
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02-01-20 | Miami-OH +4.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 55-70 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB - MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami-OH +4½ -109 I love the value here with the Redhawks as a small road dog against the Huskies. Miami (OH) had their game on Tuesday postponed, which means they haven't been in action since last Saturday. That should work out as a big positive for the Redhawks in this one, especially with Northern Illinois playing on just 3 days of rest. Huskies are also a team that has had a real hard time playing up to their potential against lesser opponents. Northern Illinois is a mere 1-6 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a losing record. They have also failed to cover 5 of their last 6 as a favorite. Adding even more value here is how the dog has owned this series, cashing a winning ticket in 17 of the last 21 meetings between these two teams. Take Miami (OH)! |
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02-01-20 | George Mason v. St Bonaventure UNDER 132.5 | 65-74 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on George Mason/St Bonaventure under 132½ -109 I like the value with the UNDER quite a bit in Saturday's action out of the Atlantic 10, which has St. Bonaventure hosting George Mason. The Bonnies snapped their 3-game losing streak with a 62-55 win at Fordham. St Bonaventure limited the Rams to just 33% shooting and I look for them to carry over that strong defensive effort here at home against the Patriots. It also helps that George Mason's offense is in a bit of a slump. They have shot 38% or worse from the field in each of their last 3 games and last time on the road they managed just 53 at Davidson, who ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. UNDER is 11-3 in St Bonaventure's last 14 home games and 10-2 in their last 12 as a home favorite. Take the UNDER! |