Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-27-19 | Penn State v. Maryland +7 | Top | 59-0 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 20 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland +7 -110 Love the value here with the Terps as a touchdown dog against the Nittany Lions. It's not that Penn State isn't a talented team, they are extremely young and I just don't feel like they are the 12th best team in the country. One of the more difficult thing for young/inexperienced teams is to play on the road in a hostile environment. That's where upsets happen and I think we could definitely see Maryland win this game outright. A lot of people were on the Terps after they crushed Syracuse, only to jump right off the ship after an upset loss at Temple. I wasn't surprised to see them stumble on the road against the Owls. The Terps were feeling themselves off that big win over a ranked team and the fact that they were a Top 25 team. I really like the skill players they got on the offensive side of the ball and former Va Tech quarterback, Joshua Jackson, looks really good in this offense. I think they are going to have a big day against a Penn State defense that isn't as good as the numbers. Nittany Lions have somehow only given up 23 points in their last 2 games, despite allowing more than 800 yards of offense. Take Maryland! |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NFL - Eagles/Packers ATS ANNIHILATOR on Eagles +4½ -110 I think we are getting a great price here on the Eagles catching over a field goal against the Packers on Thursday Night Football. Philadelphia comes in at 1-2 and just lost at home to the Lions as a 4-point favorite. People are starting to second guess this team. Packers on the other hand are 3-0 and have covered all 3. Public loves betting Aaron Rodgers and thus we get the value with Philadelphia. Eagles are really close to being 3-0. At the same time, it's not like the Packers are dominating teams. The defense has really carried them. Rodgers and that offense look out of sync in the scheme. The other thing is we don't really know if the defense is as good as it's looked. Haven't exactly played the best signal callers with their first 3 against Tribusky, Cousins and Flaco. They also got some key guys banged up on that side that might miss this one. I think Wentz and that Eagles offense will be able to move the ball and wouldn't be shocked if the won the game outright. Take Philadelphia! |
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09-26-19 | Navy +11 v. Memphis | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 21 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy +11 -110 Navy is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog against Memphis on Thursday Night. Midshipmen went just 3-9 last year and were a team not many people were talking about in 2019 with just 8 starters back. However, this should be a much improved team (service academies are use to not having a lot of guys back) on both sides of the ball. They have looked great in their two games so far this season. They beat Holy Cross 45-7 as a 21.5-point favorite and East Carolina 42-10 as a 7.5-point favorite. Books weren't close with the number posted in either of those games. I think it's the same thing here. Navy has won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Memphis, including a 22-21 win as a 6.5-point dog last year. A lot of people are praising this Memphis defense cause it shutdown Ole Miss in the opener, but stopping the triple-option is not easy and all that running limits the number of possessions. Midshipmen are 18-5 ATS last 23 as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points. Memphis is just 8-21 in their last 29 off a double-digit road win, 5-15 ATS last 20 after outgaining 2 straight teams by 125 or more yards and 0-8 ATS last 8 after gaining 525+ yards in their last two. Take Navy! |
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09-26-19 | Rockies +122 v. Giants | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL West PLAY OF THE MONTH on Rockies +122 Love the value here with Colorado as a decently priced road dog against the Giants. San Francisco will send out Tyler Beede, who has gone 5-9 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in 21 starts. Rockies have won 5 of their last 6 games vs a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or worse. Plus, Beede gave up 5 runs on 8 hits in just 3 2/3 innings in his only start against Colorado this season. Kyle Freeland will go for the Rockies and the numbers aren't great. He's just 3-11 with a 6.84 ERA in 21 starts. However, Freeland has enjoyed facing San Francisco. He's 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 11 career starts against the Giants. Colorado has also won 18 of his last 26 starts when he's throwing on the standard 4-days of rest and 14 of his last 20 vs a division opponent. Take Colorado! |
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09-25-19 | Benoit Paire v. Pablo Carreno-Busta -155 | 12-15 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show | |
3* TENNIS - Chengdu Open CASH COW on Pablo Carreno-Busta -155 I'm backing Pablow Carreno-Busta to knock off Benoit Paire in the second round of the 2019 Chengdu Open. This tournament is played on a outdoor hard surface. Carreno-Busta has a 13-5 record on outdoor hard surfaces, while Paire is just 10-11. Take Carreno-Busta! |
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09-25-19 | Orioles +150 v. Blue Jays | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Orioles +150 Baltimore is worth a look here at Toronto. Orioles offense has been on a tear the last two days, scoring 21 runs on 31 hits. They are in a great spot to put up another big number, as Toronto's starter has been struggling. Blue Jays will send out Jacob Waguespack, who has an awful 8.31 ERA and 1.769 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also just 1-3 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.882 WHIP in 4 home starts. Orioles starter, Gabriel Ynoa has been the exact opposite with a strong 3.78 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Blue Jays are 7-14 last 21 at home when revenging a loss as a home favorite and 3-13 in their last 16 at home after a game where the bullpen threw 7+ innings. Take Baltimore! |
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09-25-19 | Brewers v. Reds +135 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Reds +135 I know the Brewers are rolling right now with a 16-2 run in their last 18 games, including a current 6-game winning streak, but no way am I passing up on this value with Cincinnati. Reds would love nothing more than to cool off their division rivals and they are in a prime spot to do so. Tyler Mahle will start for the Reds and he's coming off a great start at Chicago, where he allowed just 1 run on 1 hit in 6 innings. Mahle has had good fortune against the Brewers, posting a 3.24 ERA in 3 career starts against the Brewers (all 3 have come in the last 2 seasons). Teams (Reds) who are average offensively 4.0-4.5 runs/game that have scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight games are 38-18 (68%) since 1997 when facing a starter that has an ERA of 3.70 to 4.20. Take Cincinnati! |
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09-24-19 | Braves -151 v. Royals | 6-9 | Loss | -151 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Money Line NO-BRAINER on Braves -151 Even though Atlanta is pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed in the NL playoffs, I don't see them just throwing in the towel over the final week of the regular season. I do think we are getting a good price on them because there are those that think they won't show up with no real incentive to win. Royals are a team they can beat without their "A" game. KC has lost 8 of their last 10 and I could see them coming out flat after a lengthy 7-game road trip, which concluded with 4 against rival Minnesota. Braves are a perfect 9-0 in Teheran's last 9 starts against a team that is getting outscored by 1+ run/game, are 25-9 in their last 34 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 and 15-4 in their last 19 on the road after playing 6 or more in a row at home. Take Atlanta! |
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09-24-19 | Brewers v. Reds -119 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL Central PLAY OF THE WEEK on Reds -119 As difficult as it may be to bet against the surging Brewers right now, no way am I passing up a play on the Reds at this price with Sonny Gray on the mound. Gray has a 2.75 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 30 starts. Cincinnati has won 12 of his 15 home starts this season and he's 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in 5 career starts against the Brewers (5-0 team record). Milwaukee will counter with Adrian Houser and he's 1-4 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.565 WHIP in 8 home starts. He's also got an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in his last 3 starts. His only start against the Reds came on July 1st and he gave up 3 runs on 6 hits (2 HRs) in 5 innings. Gray is on decent rest here and has gone 13-3 on the money line in his last 16 starts when working on 5-6 days of rest. He's also 14-3 in his last 17 home starts with a money line of -100 to -150. Take Cincinnati! |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins OVER 41 | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NFL - Bears/Redskins MNF Total NO-BRAINER on Bears/Redskins over 41 -105 Love the value here with the OVER between the Bears/Redskins on Monday Night Football. This might seem like a solid number given how bad Chicago's offense has looked in the first two games, but I think we are going to see the Bears put up a big number here. Chicago has played a couple of solid defenses the first two weeks and now get a much easier opponent in the Redskins. Washington is giving up over 30 points/game and the key stat for me is the run defense. Redskins are allowing 168 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. I think getting that running game going will really open up some big plays in the air. Redskins saw a combined 59 points with a total of just 44 in Week 1 at Philadelphia and 52 with a total of 46 in last week's loss at home to the Cowboys. OVER is 13-4 in the Bears last 17 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games at home. Take the OVER! |
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09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
5* NFL - Rams/Browns SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns +3½ -110 I really like Cleveland to cash in a win at home against the Rams, but you got to take the points to be safe. It took a couple of weeks, but we are finally starting to see the public back on Los Angeles. They won and covered as a small favorite at Carolina in Week 1 and blew out New Orleans 27-9 as a small home favorite in Week 2. I just don't think it's warranted. I don't know that Carolina is all we thought they would be. Newtown doesn't look like himself and they barely won that game. As for the victory over the Saints, they caught the ultimate break with Drew Brees going down to injury. This does not look like the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year, especially on the offensive side. Rams rank in the bottom half of the league at just 224.0 passing yards/game. Jared Goff is also a guy that historically plays much worse on the road. I think he's in for a long day here against Myles Garrett. He was a force against the Jets last week. You also have to play into the atmosphere here. It's going to be electric at FirstEnergy Stadium and I got a feeling this Browns team is going to play with a little more fight as an underdog. Take Cleveland! |
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09-22-19 | Bengals v. Bills UNDER 44.5 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER under 44½ -110 I think we are getting some value here with the UNDER in Sunday's AFC matchup between the Bills and Bengals. Buffalo is a team that likes to win ugly. They want to wear you down with the run game and let their defense do the talking. Given how limited the offense is and how good the defense is, it's the perfect type of team for UNDERs. Bengals offense has not exactly looked great. Andy Dalton threw for almost 400 yards at Seattle and yet they only could manage 20 points. Last week they had almost 300 in the air and finished with 17. They have no rushing attack. They got 59 yards rushing in two games combined. Bills had the No. 1 ranked pass defense last year and are giving up just 198 ypg and 4.6 yards/pass attempt. I know the competition hasn't been great (Jets & Giants), but I think we can trust they are going to be good on that side again. Bengals defense isn't great, but it's a lot better than it was last week against the 49ers and definitely capable of keeping Buffalo from going off. Take the UNDER! |
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09-22-19 | Jets +23 v. Patriots | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 18 m | Show | |
3* NFL - Vegas Line Mistake ATS SHOCKER on Jets +23 -110 I just think we are seeing a massive overreaction here with this line. I get New England is good and they won and covered on the road as a 18-point favorite in last week's 43-0 win at Miami, but the Dolphins simply aren't trying to be competitive. The Jets are down to third string QB Luke Falk, but they are no where close to as bad as Miami. No other team is. I know the offense was putrid in the loss the Browns on Monday Night Football, but I really like how the defense competed. I also think given how bad Trevor Siemian has been in this league and how bad he looked, Falk can't be much worse. We know the Jets are going to give it all as against the Patriots. There's no team they want to beat more than New England. I know the Pats are the last team you expect to have a letdown, but it's gonna be hard for them to take NY seriously enough to win going away. It could be 34-13 and we are golden. I don't know that NE scores that much. Take the Jets! |
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09-21-19 | Oregon v. Stanford +10.5 | 21-6 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford +10½ -105 I think this is the ideal spot to jump on Stanford after a couple of really ugly road losses to USC and UCF. I think it has the perception on Stanford way down going into this game. They didn't have K.J. Costello in the loss at USC and I think they just didn't have any juice left for that game at UCF (long travel). I expect a different looking Cardinal team on Saturday. That could be a big problem for the Ducks given all the hype they have been getting. Hard to imagine Oregon isn't sitting there thinking about how they are going to roll Stanford. I know they played Auburn tough in the opener, but I'm not sold on the Tigers being all that. Stanford head coach David Shaw has been a moneymaker in this spot. With the Cardinal he's 19-9 ATS at home in the first month of the season, 35-19 ATS last 54 vs a good offensive team that's averaging 5.9 yards/play and a perfect 10-0 ATS off 2 straight losses against the spread. Take Stanford! |
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09-21-19 | Wyoming v. Tulsa -3 | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 84 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Tulsa -3 -111 I'm dialed in on this Saturday's matchup with Tulsa and Wyoming. I not only like the Golden Hurricane, but I see a ton of value here with the UNDER as well. Tulsa's only two losses on the season are to Michigan State by 21 on the road and by 19 at home to Oklahoma State. While the final score against the Cowboys ended up being 40-19, they had a 21-20 lead at the half and were down by just 12 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. They gave up 506 yards to OKlahoma State, but a bunch of that was on big plays. Cowboys had a 75-yard TD run and 90-yard TD pass. Given how good Oklahoma State has looked, I thought for the most part that defense played well. Keep in mind this is a Tulsa defense that returned 8 starters from a unit that went from giving up 37.5 ppg in 2017 to only allowing 29.6 ppg. I think that defense will have no problem keeping Wyoming's offense in check. They only scored 23 in a 9-point win over a bad Texas State team and 7 of those came on a 72-yard pick six with them down 14-13 in the 3rd quarter. They followed that up with just 21 in a mere 5-point win over Idaho and were only up 14-13 before a 80-yard TD run in the 4th (only pts 2nd half). Easy for Tulsa to win by 3, but I also think the Wyoming's defense is good enough to keep the Golden Hurricane from putting up a ton of points. I see this something like 27-10 in favor of the home team. Take Tulsa & UNDER! |
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09-21-19 | Wyoming v. Tulsa UNDER 45 | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 84 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF - Tulsa/Wyoming Total DOMINATOR on Wyoming/Tulsa under 45 -110 I'm dialed in on this Saturday's matchup with Tulsa and Wyoming. I not only like the Golden Hurricane, but I see a ton of value here with the UNDER as well. Tulsa's only two losses on the season are to Michigan State by 21 on the road and by 19 at home to Oklahoma State. While the final score against the Cowboys ended up being 40-19, they had a 21-20 lead at the half and were down by just 12 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. They gave up 506 yards to OKlahoma State, but a bunch of that was on big plays. Cowboys had a 75-yard TD run and 90-yard TD pass. Given how good Oklahoma State has looked, I thought for the most part that defense played well. Keep in mind this is a Tulsa defense that returned 8 starters from a unit that went from giving up 37.5 ppg in 2017 to only allowing 29.6 ppg. I think that defense will have no problem keeping Wyoming's offense in check. They only scored 23 in a 9-point win over a bad Texas State team and 7 of those came on a 72-yard pick six with them down 14-13 in the 3rd quarter. They followed that up with just 21 in a mere 5-point win over Idaho and were only up 14-13 before a 80-yard TD run in the 4th (only pts 2nd half). Easy for Tulsa to win by 3, but I also think the Wyoming's defense is good enough to keep the Golden Hurricane from putting up a ton of points. I see this something like 27-10 in favor of the home team. Take Tulsa & UNDER! |
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09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Ohio -3 | Top | 45-25 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 24 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Small Conference PLAY OF THE YEAR on Ohio -3 -110 Absolutely love Ohio here as a small 3-point home favorite against the Ragin Cajun's. This is the perfect time to buy low on the Bobcats and sell high on Lafayette. Ohio didn't cover in their opener against Rhode Island, despite winning by 20+, and then lost back-to-back on the road against Pittsburgh and Marshall. Two games they were expected to lose, but nonetheless there's nothing to get you excited about with Ohio. Key here is that this is one of Frank Solich's better teams he's had at Ohio and a lot of people have them as the best team in the MAC this year. They are going to be chomping at the bit take the field at home, where they have are 1-0 this year and 48-13 over the previous 10 seasons (12-1 since 2017). As for Lafayette they covered against Mississippi State in the opener and followed that up with back-to-back blowout wins and covers at home against Liberty and Texas Southern. The close call against the Bulldogs looks less impressive after Miss St lost at home to K-State and that Liberty team they beat lost 24-0 to a bad Syracuse team. Ohio lost by just 2-points last week at Marshall and that's worth noting, as the Bobcats are 12-4 ATS under Solich off a loss by 3 or less. They have also covered 16 of their last 20 vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg (Lafayette +27.4 ppg). Take Ohio! |
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09-21-19 | Coastal Carolina v. UMass +17 | 62-28 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 19 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on UMass +17 -110 I think there's more than enough value here to take a flyer on the Minutemen. Far from an easy play to stomach given UMass has not covered in any of their games and lost outright by 25 as a 5.5-point home favorite to Southern Illinois. However, the books know the betting public will want absolutely nothing to do with this UMass team, so we can feel good about the number we are getting. I just don't feel like a road win over Kansas justifies the Chanticleers laying 3 scores on the road. As bad as UMass is defensively, Coastal Carolina is far from an offensive juggernaut. They only put up 23 at home to E Michigan and a mere 12 in the win against the Jayhawks. Not to mention, the Chanticleers got the defending Sun Belt champs on deck in Appalachian State. Take UMass! |
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09-20-19 | Rangers v. A's -155 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
5* MLB - AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on A's -155 Easy play on Oakland tonight at home against the Rangers. A's have been on fire of late, as they come in having won 10 of 12. Texas on the other hand has lost 5 in a row. Big key to note with the Rangers losing streak is how the offense has struggled to score. Texas has managed just 4 runs in their last 3 games. That's a big problem for the Rangers, as the A's will send out Mike Fiers, who has been on a Cy Young level at home this season. Fiers is 8-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 15 home starts. A's have won 18 of his last 22 home starts overall, 7-1 in his last 8 vs a division opponent and 10-1 in his last 11 vs a team with a losing record. Take Oakland! |
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09-20-19 | Florida International v. Louisiana Tech -9 | Top | 31-43 | Win | 100 | 94 h 5 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech -9 -109 This is a no-brainer for me to lay single digits at home with Louisiana Tech against the FIU Panthers. Something just isn't right with this FIU team. The Panthers are a team that was suppose to be a contender in C-USA with 16 starters back from a 9-win team. I just feel like the books are being slow to adjust. They got embarrassed by Tulane 42-14 on the road in Week 1 and were a mere 3-point dog in that matchup. They then lost at home as a 7.5-point favorite to WKU. They finally get a win last week over New Hampshire, but only won 30-17 as a 13.5-point favorite. The offense has not looked great, especially the passing game. Starting quarterback James Morgan, who was great for them last year is dealing with an ankle injury, but it felt like he was already losing time to backup Kaylan Wiggins. The defense has also been sub-par, especially against run. I just don't see the Panthers being able to keep pace with J'Mar Smith and the Bulldogs offense. Smith has been playing at a high level. He had 331 yards and 2 scores against Texas, so it's hard to see FIU keeping in check. Panthers come in averaging 307 ypg. There have been only 6 times as the head coach of the Bulldogs that Skip Holz has faced a team that averages 310 or fewer yards. Holtz and the Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in this spot with an average margin of victory of 21.6 ppg. Take Louisiana Tech! |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars +2 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
4* NFL - Titans/Jags Thurs Night VEGAS INSIDER on Jaguars +2 The betting public is all over the Titans in this one and I'm not sure why. I really like the value here with Jacksonville as a home dog. I think the Jags are undervalued for a lot of reasons. For one they are 0-2, they got embarrassed in Week 1 at home by the Chiefs and lost starting QB Nick Foles, who was their prized free agent pickup. Not to mention the recent headlines of Jalen Ramsey wanting traded. Jacksonville was a 2-point conversion away from winning outright as a 9-point underdog at Houston in Week 2. The loss of Foles sucks, but I've liked what I've seen out of rookie Gardner Minshew. I don't know that the drop off from Foles is as big as people think. I thought Foles was more a product of the system in Philadelphia than anything. The other thing is the Jaguars still have one of the best defenses in the league. They just got exposed by Mahomes and that potent Chiefs offense in Week 1. They were really good against Deshaun Watson last week. Titans offense is not good. They are also not the team you want to back as a road favorite. With Marcus Mariota as the starter, Tennessee is 3-7 ATS as a favorite. Take Jacksonville! |
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09-19-19 | Madison Keys -130 v. Angelique Kerber | 11-12 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
4* TENNIS - Toray Pan Pacific Open CASH COW on Madison Keys -130 I'm confident Madison Keys will defeat Angelique Kerber in the quarterfinals of the 2019 Toray Pan Pacific Open. Keys is red-hot, having won 9 of her last 10 matches and will be extra motivated to take out Kerber, as she has had her number over the years. Take Keys -130! |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane UNDER 57.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Houston/Tulane Total NO-BRAINER on Under 57.5 I really like the value here with the UNDER in tonight's American Athletic showdown between Houston and Tulane. I think the number here is a lot higher than it should be because of how poor the Cougars defense has looked thru the first 3 weeks of the season. Houston is giving up 32.3 ppg and 506 ypg, but that's because they played two of the best offenses in the country in Oklahoma and Washington State. Defense actually played well for a good portion of that game last week against the Cougars. Tulane is not a team that looks to put a ton of points on the scoreboard. Green Wave are built around running the football and stopping the run. Tulane is putting up 5.9 yards/carry on the ground and giving up just 3.0 ypg. They are the ideal team for a low-scoring game, as they will limit the number of possessions with all the clock they eat up. Last year the Cougars defense wasn't great and they held Tulane to just 17 points. Houston had 48 in that one and the game still stayed under the total of 68. Last time they played in Tulane the two combined for only 37. UNDER is 44-16 (73%) in the first month of the season when you have a total of 56.5 to 63 with a team (Houston) that has lost 2 of their first 3 games. Take the UNDER! |
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09-19-19 | Phillies +150 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Phillies +150 Love the value here with Philadelphia as a big road dog against the Braves. We played and won on the Phillies as a similar priced dog yesterday. Hard to not keep it going with Philly on Thursday, as they got ace Aaron Nola on the mound, who has owned the Braves. Nola is 10-4 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 17 career starts against Atlanta. Braves will send out Mike Soroka, who has been great in 2019 with a 12-4 record and 2.57 ERA in 27 stats. However, he does own a poor 4.18 ERA and 1.324 WHIP in 12 home starts and a 4.82 ERA and 2.141 WHIP in 2 starts against the Phillies, both of which came this season. Phillies are 5-1 in Nola's last 6 road starts vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 in his last 5 after the team lost in his previous start. Take Philadelphia! |
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09-18-19 | Phillies +141 v. Braves | Top | 4-1 | Win | 141 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Phillies +141 I really like the value here with the Phillies at this price. Philadelphia needs every win they can get to stay in the Wild Card race and they opened up the series at Atlanta with a 5-4 win on Tuesday. Braves offense has really struggled to get anything going the last couple of games and will be up against the red-hot Zach Eflin. In Eflin's last 3 starts he's posted a 1.72 ERA and 1.021 WHIP. That includes a start against Atlanta in his last outing, where he didn't give up an earned run in 3 2/3 innings. Julio Teheran will go for the Braves and he's got a 4.50 ERA in his last 3 outings, in large part to his poor showing in his most recent start against the Phillies. Teheran gave up 5 runs on 5 hits (3 HRs) and 3 walks in 4 innings. Take Philadelphia! |
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09-18-19 | Casper Ruud +135 v. Alexander Bublik | Top | 2-1 | Win | 135 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
5* TENNIS - St. Petersburg Open VEGAS INSIDER on Casper Ruud +135 Love the value here with Casper Ruud as a decently priced dog in 1st Round action of the 2019 St. Petersburg Open. I look for Ruud to make easy work of Alexander Bublik to advance to the next round. Take Ruud! |
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09-17-19 | Mets v. Rockies +145 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rockies +145 We played and won on the Rockies as our Top Play on Monday and will fire right back with another big bet on Colorado Tuesday. Rockies have found some new life as they close out a disappointing season. Colorado has won 4 straight and 6 of 7 overall. The offense has been on point of late. Rockies have scored 9 or more runs in 4 straight games and when this team gets going offensively at home, they are very tough to beat. I look for them to keep it going against Mets starter Marcus Stroman, who has slipped some of late with a 3.86 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Rockies are 11-4 last 15 after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and the Mets are 19-31 in their last 50 after giving up 8 or more runs last time out. Take Colorado! |
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09-17-19 | Reds +148 v. Cubs | 4-2 | Win | 148 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds +148 This is just too good a price to pass up a play on Cincinnati with ace Sonny Gray on the mound. I know the Cubs have scored a ton of runs during their current 5-game win streak, but a lot of that has come against poor starting pitching. Gray is one of the best starters in the game right now. He's got a 2.75 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in 29 starts this season, which is really something given his home park is one of the most hitter-friendly places to play. Gray has a 2.71 ERA in 14 road starts and is on fire at the moment with a 1.89 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Darvish has been really good for Chicago in his last 3 starts, but he's not been the same guy at home. Darvish owns a poor 5.14 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in 13 home starts. Take Cincinnati! |
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09-16-19 | Mets v. Rockies +149 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 149 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
5* MLB - Situational HEAVY HITTER on Rockies +149 I love the value here with Colorado as a decently priced home dog against the Mets. New York is the better team, but should not be favored like this on the road with Steven Matz on the mound. Matz is 3-7 with an awful 6.07 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in 14 road starts. The numbers aren't great for Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela, but he was outstanding in his lone start against the Mets this year. Senzatela allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings of a 5-1 win over NY with deGrom starting. Rockies have won 5 of 6 at home and 6-2 in Senzatela's last 8 home starts (4-1 last 5 at home vs a team with a winning record). Take Colorado! |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets +3 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 37 m | Show |
5* NFL - Browns/Jets MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +3 -110 I liked the Jets when the line first came out and while the Darnold news is not ideal, I still like New York to make a game of this at home on Monday Night Football. Jets still have Le'Veon Bell to keep the offense moving and this Browns defense is not as good as people think. They let Marcus Mariota threw for 250 yards and 3 scores and gave up over 120 yards on the ground. That same Titans offense managed just 242 total yards at home in a Week 2 loss to the Colts. I know Trevor Siemian has not been great as a starter, but a lot of those starts were on bad teams. I think he outperforms expectations in a big way here. Take New York! |
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09-16-19 | Orioles v. Tigers +137 | 2-5 | Win | 137 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Tigers +137 I like the value here with Detroit as a decently priced home dog against the Orioles. Baltimore will have ace John Means on the mound, but he's just 1-5 with a 4.79 ERA in 9 road starts (2-7 team record). No way should the Orioles be laying that kind of juice on the road. Tyler Anderson has a 5.13 in 5 starts, but 3 of the 5 have come o the road. He's got a respectable 3.97 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in those 2 home starts. Take Detroit! |
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09-16-19 | Peter Gojowczyk v. F Krajinovic -130 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
3* TENNIS - Moselle Open 1st Rd CASH COW on F Krajinovic -130 I'm backing Filip Krajinovic to take out Peter Gojowczyk in first round action of the Men's Singles at the 2019 Moselle Open. Krajinovic is 32-14 on the season and ranked No. 49, while Gojowczyk is just 14-26 and ranked No. 89. Take Kranjinovic! |
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09-15-19 | Coyotes +140 v. Golden Knights | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
4* NHL Money Line CASH COW on Coyotes +140 We are going to back the Coyotes in their pre-season opener at Las Vegas. Golden Knights way overvalued here in an exhibition game. Take Arizona +140. |
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09-15-19 | Bears v. Broncos +3 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 0 m | Show | |
3* NFL - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Broncos +3 -125 The public is all over the Bears as a small road favorite, but I really like Denver to knock off Chicago at home in Week 2. I get the Broncos didn't look great in that Week 1 loss at Oakland, but I think they were surprised with how well the Raiders played. I think Denver might have thought that was going to be a lot easier after AB was released. Denver is also a very difficult place to play and a lot of these Bears players aren't use to the thin air of Mile High. I think that impacts the Bears defense and that Chicago offense looked way out of sync in Week 1 against Green Bay. Hard to win on the road if you can't score. Take Denver! |
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09-15-19 | White Sox +117 v. Mariners | 10-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on White Sox +117 This is too good a price to pass up with Chicago. White Sox will have Ivan Nova on the mound and after a few shaky outings, he got back on track with a strong outing against the Royals. Nova's been a different guy the 2nd half of the season. He had a 3.16 ERA in 5 July starts and then posted a 1.95 ERA in 6 August starts. Seattle got the win on Saturday, but are 1-6 in their last 7 following a win and have dropped 4 straight in Game 3 of a series. White Sox are 7-3 in Nova's last 10 starts and a perfect 5-0 after the offense scored 2 or fewer last time out. Take Chicago! |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 26 m | Show |
5* NFL - AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +7½ -110 Love the value here with Oakland getting over a touchdown at home against the Chiefs. I really liked what I saw from the Raiders in their win over Denver on MNF in Week 1. This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder from all that AB drama. They are going to give everything they got to beat their rival in KC. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense looked great in Week 1, but the problem is the defense. Kansas City did a lot to try and get better on that side of the ball only to watch a rookie in Gardner Minshew complete 22 of 25 against them. Add in the loss of Tyreek Hill for that Chiefs offense and I think Oakland can make a game of this. Also this a really tough traveling spot for KC having to go from playing at Jacksonville in Week 1 to the complete other side of the country in California. Take the Raiders! |
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09-15-19 | Brewers +123 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-6 | Win | 123 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers +123 Love the value here with Milwaukee as a decently priced road dog against the Cardinals. Brewers are on fire right now. They have won 8 of their last 9 and will send out Chase Anderson, who has owned St Louis in his career. Anderson has a 3.07 ERA in 11 starts against the Cardinals. Michael Wacha will start for St Louis and he's been better of late, but only made it 2 innings at SF on 9/4 and 4 innings on 9/10. Wacha has a poor 4.98 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in 9 home starts. Cardinals are just 4-12 in their last 16 starts during Game 3 of a series. Take Milwaukee! |
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09-15-19 | Braves v. Nationals +103 | 0-7 | Win | 103 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line DESTROYER on Nationals +103 This is just too good a price to pass up on the Nationals at home against the Braves, especially with how Atlanta starter Max Fried has struggled on the road. Fried has an ugly 5.20 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in 14 road starts. Washington has won 8 of his last 10 at home against a lefty starter and are 23-10 in their last 33 after losing the first two games of a series. Take Washington! |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens UNDER 47 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 90 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NFL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals/Ravens under 47 -115 I really like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's Week 2 NFL action between Arizona and Baltimore. I just think the total here is way too high. I get the Ravens offense looked unbelievable in Week 1, but I think that more of who they played than who they are. Miami is a mess right now and it feels like management wants to lose right now and increase their chances of getting a QB with a top pick in next year's draft. I think it's the right move to make if you don't have that position solidified. The problem is the players aren't a fan. They want to win. The Dolphins players were really upset about them trading Tunsil prior to Week 1. I think their lack of effort is why Baltimore looked so good. Arizona's defense is going to put up a much bigger fight here. No one player will be more motivated for this one than Cardinals new linebacker Terrell Suggs, who made his name with Baltimore. I also think we see the Ravens run the ball a lot more this week, which will eat up the clock and limit the number of possessions. Take the UNDER! |
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09-14-19 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -113 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Diamondbacks -113 I'm confident the Diamondbacks are going to snap their 6-game losing streak with a win at home over the Reds tonight. It feels like do or die time for Arizona, as they need to make a move right now to have any hope of a Wild Card. Look for Merril Kelly to play a big part in the victory. Kelly has been throwing the ball great of late with a 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts. Red will have Anthony Desclafani going and h's got a 4.72 ERA in 15 road starts. Cincinnati has lost 5 of his last 6 starts on the road and 4 straight vs a team with a winning record. Dbacks are 4-1 in Kelly's last 5 home starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Arizona! |
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09-14-19 | Padres v. Rockies +104 | 10-11 | Win | 104 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Rockies +104 Colorado is worth a look here at basically a pick'em at home against the Padres. Rockies are wrapping up a disappointing season. While they don't have anything to play for, they come in having won 3 of their last 4. When this team is playing well they are really tough to beat at home with the way they can score runs at Coors Field (averaging 6.1 runs/game at home). I know the numbers aren't great for Rockies starter Lambert, but Padres are a miserable 2-15 in their last 17 road games against an NL team with a starter going that has an ERA of 5.40 or worse. Take Colorado! |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma v. UCLA +24.5 | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Prime Time PUBLIC SHOCKER on UCLA +24½ -110 No way the public is going to want anything to do with UCLA against Oklahoma. The books know this and I think we are getting exceptional value here because of it. I think the Bruins aren't just going to cover, but give the Sooners a bit of a scare. It's not easy for midwest teams to go out west and play in a different time zone. I also think it could be hard for Oklahoma to take this UCLA team seriously after watching them start out 0-2 with losses to Cincinnati and San Diego State. More so how bad the offense has looked. With the way they are scoring, it will be hard for them to see the Bruins keeping it close. The thing is, both Cincinnati and San Diego State are two of the better Group of 5 teams in the country. They are also two teams built around their defense. Oklahoma is trying to get better on defense, but I don't think they are quite there. Chip Kelly is too good an offensive coach to not get that offense producing. Sooners are 1-5 ATS last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a SU win by 20+ points. Take UCLA! |
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09-14-19 | Dodgers +123 v. Mets | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers +123 Give me the Dodgers as an underdog all day. LA won the series opener over the Mets 9-2 on Friday and roughed up Syndergaard in the process. I think they keep it rolling against deGrom, who just keeps being overvalued by the books. Guy is great, but Mets are are a mere 3-7 in his last 10 home starts and have lost 7 of 8 at home against a team with a winning record. Dodgers will counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 12-5 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 26 starts. LA has gone 15-5 in his last 20 starts and have won 8 of his last 11 after scoring 5 or more runs the previous time out. Take Los Angeles! |
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09-14-19 | Western Kentucky v. Louisville UNDER 51.5 | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Western Kentucky/Louisville under 51½ -110 I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER. I think when most people think of WKU and Louisville they think of high-scoring offenses and sub-par defenses. That's just not how these two teams are anymore. Scott Satterfield is the new head coach at Louisville coming over from App State. I know they gave up 35 to Notre Dame, but the defense had their moments and that's a good ND offense with a top tier QB. Last week they pitched a shutout at Eastern Kentucky, giving up just 172 total yards. Tyson Helton is the new HC at Western Kentucky and he's the brother of USC head coach Clay Helton. Hilltoppers held FIU to just 14 points and 217 total yards on the road last week. These two teams also combined for just 37 points last year with a total of 54. I see this being a very similar type of game. Great system in play here. Non-conference games played at a neutral site with a total of 49.5 to 56 with two teams who are strong defensively (allowing 280 to 330 yards/game) have gone UNDER the total 38 out of the last 46 (83%). This system dates back to 1992, so it's no fluke. Take the UNDER! |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +14.5 | Top | 40-21 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 49 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa +14½ -105 Absolutely love the value here with Tulsa as a two touchdown dog at home against the Cowboys. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of the Golden Hurricane to start out 2019. Tulsa kept it closer than just about everyone expected in a 28-7 loss at Michigan State in Week 1 as a 23.5-point dog. Instead of giving the Golden Hurricane's defense for going on the road and holding the Spartans to 28 points and just 303 total yards, they just wrote it off as Michigan State's offense being bad. That kinda doesn't work after watching the Spartans put up 51 points and 582 yards in a 34-point win at home against Western Michigan. Tulsa's defense wasn't spectacular at San Jose State last week, but that second straight game on the road is always tough, plus it was a huge sandwich spot. Teams that can keep Oklahoma State's offense from getting into a rhythm tend to have a lot of success against them. Should be a rowdy crowd, as this is also their home opener. Outright win is definitely a possibility. Take Tulsa! |
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09-14-19 | USC v. BYU +4 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 69 h 0 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Vegas Big Money HEAVY HITTER on BYU +4 -105 BYU is worth a look here as a home dog against the Trojans. It didn't take long for USC to go from being undervalued to overvalued. While the Trojans are off a 45-20 beating of Stanford, they did just lose their starting QB in JT Daniels to a season-ending injury. Not to mention the Stanford team they beat didn't have K.J. Costello. Kedon Slovis' big day against the Cardinal is a big reason why people are back on the USC bandwagon. He lit up Stanford's defense for 377 yards and 3 scores. It was a great game, but he was also just 6 of 8 for 57 yards and a pick in a half against Fresno State. I think Slovis is going to struggle to come anywhere close to those numbers against Stanford in his first true road game. BYU's defense is no pushover and are definitely battle tested having opened up the season against Utah and Tennessee. Trojans are just 7-15 ATS under head coach Clay Helton as a favorite, 1-8 ATS last 9 non-conference matchups and 3-9-1 ATS last 13 on the road. Take BYU! |
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09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple +7.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 19 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Temple +7½ -110 Now is the perfect time to fade Maryland. The public was against the Terps last week at home against a ranked Syracuse team. Maryland went on to win 63-20 and now everyone is on the Terps. Even the polls jumped on board and put this team at No. 21 in the country. I'm not saying Maryland isn't better than expected, but they should be laying this kind of a number on the road against a good program like Temple. The Owls are in the first year under Rod Carey, who came over after a successful stint at Northern Illinois. Carey took over a team that brought back 14 starters from a team that won 8 games. I also think people underestimate the value of an early bye. Temple basically got to play an exhibition against Bucknell in Week 1 and then spend two weeks fixing what needed fixed. There's also going to be a little extra fire with Temple being a home dog and hearing all this hype around this Maryland team. Take the Owls! |
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09-14-19 | Ohio State v. Indiana +17 | 51-10 | Loss | -105 | 65 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +17 -105 I just can't pass up Indiana at this price at home against the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers have been a thorn in the side of Ohio State for years now. Something that might surprise a lot of people given the talent gap between the two and the fact that Ohio State has won the last 24 meetings. Indiana has covered 7 of the last 8 in the series. The only game they didn't cover they should have. Hoosiers ended up losing 49-21 as a 20-point dog in 2017, despite having a 21-20 lead in the 2nd half! Indiana is also always gonna be undervalued as long as they are in the same division as Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State. No one is ever picking this team to win the East. Thing is, Tom Allen has really got them competitive and finally made them respectable on the defensive side of the ball. I think that defense could give Fields and the Buckeyes offense some problems here, as they are going to feed off the energy of the home fans. I also think Hoosiers QB Michael Penix is on his way to being a star in this league. Take Indiana! |
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09-13-19 | Rays v. Angels +125 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
5* MLB - AL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Angels +125 Love the Angels at this price at home against the Rays on Friday. Tampa Bay has lost their last two and had to make the long trip out west after finishing up a 3-game series at Texas last night. Rays will send out Charlie Morton and he's got an ugly 5.87 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Angels will counter with Andrew Heaney and he's posted a sensational 2.65 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 3 career starts against the Rays. LA has also won 6 of Heaney's last 7 starts and are 12-5 in his last 17 at home. Rays are 2-6 in their last 8 road games and 1-4 in Morton's last 5 starts during Game 1 of a series. Take Los Angeles! |
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09-13-19 | Braves v. Nationals -154 | 5-0 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Nationals -154 Easy play here on the Nationals at home against the Braves with ace Max Scherzer on the mound. This is now the 5th start back from the IL and he's off his best outing, against none other than these same Braves. Scherzer allowed just 1 run on 2 hits with 9 K's in 6 innings. Atlanta will have Mike Soroka on the mound and he's been one of the better starters this season, but he's got a very mediocre 4.76 ERA and 1.353 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 3.86 ERA in 4 career starts against the Nationals. Braves have lost 5 of his last 7 starts overall. Take Washington! |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -2.5 | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - UNC/WF Friday Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Wake Forest -2½ -110 It's been quite a start for the Tar Heels in the first year with Mack Brown back as head coach. UNC knocked off South Carolina 24-20 as a 11.5-point underdog in Week 1 and then upset Miami 28-25 as a 4-point home dog in Week 2. I believe it has the Tar Heels overvalued here as a mere 2.5-point road dog against the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest has started out 2-0 and this looks like one of the better teams they have had under Dave Clawson. I really like junior QB Jamie Newman and he's got some talented wide outs at his disposal. Newman will take on a Tar Heels secondary that will be without starting corner Patrice Rene. As for the UNC offene, it's been a great start for true freshman QB Sam Howell, but I could see him struggling here. This is the first true road game for the Tar Heels and Howell will have to make do without starting center Nick Polino. Take Wake Forest! |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 40 m | Show |
5* NFL - Bucs/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers -6½ -109 I really like the Panthers to lay it on the Bucs tonight. While both teams are coming off a loss at home in Week 1, Carolina lost to the reigning NFC champs in the Rams, while Tampa Bay lost to the 49ers. The big thing the Bucs were hoping for when they hired Bruce Arians was his ability to get Jameis Winston to finally play up to his potential. That hope didn't last long, as Winston threw for fewer than 200 yards and had 3 interceptions (two pick sixes) at home against a 49ers defense that only had 2 picks all of last year. I don't think it's going to get any better for Winston against the Panthers. Carolina's defense played pretty well against the Rams in Week 1. They gave up 30 points, but did hold the Rams to just 349 yards and just 4.6 yards/play. No player is going to be more motivated to go against Winston than new Carolina defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who prior to this year had only played for Tampa. Bucs basically said he was washed up. Not only do I think McCoy shows out against his old team, but I like the entire Panthers defense to play inspired for their new teammate. Lastly, you have to factor in the huge advantage the home team has playing in these Thursday games on just 3-days of rest. Take Carolina! |
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09-12-19 | Braves v. Phillies +120 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 120 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Phillies +120 Love the value here with the Phillies as a home dog against Atlanta. Philadelphia will have the red-hot Drew Smyly on the mound. Smyly has a 2.50 ERA in his last 3 starts and is coming off an outing at New York where he held the Mets to just 4 hits over 7 shutout innings. Julio Teheran has been good for Atlanta, but is just 4-4 with a 3.72 ERA in 15 road starts. He's also not been great of late against the Phillies. He's faced them 5 times over the last 2 seasons and given up 15 runs in 26 innings. He started one game at Philly earlier this year and the Braves lost that outing 10-4. Phillies lost on Wednesday, but are 7-3 in their last 10 following a loss. They have also won 4 straight starts by Smyly against a team with a winning record and are 5-1 in his last 6 outings overall. Take Philadelphia! |
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09-12-19 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays +133 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Blue Jays +133 Really like the value here with Toronto as a huge home dog against division rival Boston. No way should the Red Sox be this big of a favorite here. Blue Jays got a lot of young guys who are excited about playing and aren't going to just lay down the final few weeks of the season. I don't think the same can be said for Boston. Red Sox were expected to be one of the best teams in the league this year. They head into today's game having lost 4 straight and are now all but out of the playoff race, sitting 10-games back of the A's for the final Wild Card spot. Going to be real hard for this team to get up down the stretch, especially against bad teams like the Blue Jays. Adding even more value here is the Blue Jays have the edge on the mound with Clay Buchholz going for Toronto and Jhoulys Chacin starting for Boston. Buchholz has a 3.57 ERA in his last 3 starts and Chacin has 11.05 ERA in his last 3. Take Toronto! |
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09-12-19 | Cubs v. Padres +138 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Padres +138 Every year it seems like there's a team that just can't handle the pressure of September. The Cubs feel like that team this year. Chicago has lost 5 of 6 and are now tied with the Brewers for the final Wild Card spot and just 2 ahead of the Phillies and Mets (Dbacks 2.5 back). I look for the struggles to continue in the finale against the Padres. San Diego won 4-0 on Wednesday and have now won 4 of 5. I like their chances of coming out on top with Dinelson Lamet on the mound. Lamet is coming off a strong outing, allowing just 1 earned run on 6 hits in 6 innings. Yu Darvish goes for the Cubs and Chicago is a mere 1-9 in Darvish's last 10 road starts with a high total of 8.5 to 10 runs. They are also just 4-11 in his last 15 road starts. Take San Diego! |
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09-11-19 | Cubs -102 v. Padres | 0-4 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Cubs -102 Chicago is worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Padres. Cubs rolled in the series opener Monday before losing in extra last night. I like them to bounce back in a big way here. San Diego had lost 6 straight vs a team with a winning record prior to yesterday's win, while the Cubs had won their previous 6 vs a team with a losing record. It also helps to have Cole Hamels on the mound, as he has owned the Padres. Hamels is 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in 18 career starts vs San Diego. Take Chicago! |
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09-11-19 | Diamondbacks +102 v. Mets | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB - Diamondbacks/Mets HEAVY HITTER on Diamondbacks +102 Love Arizona to cash in a win at New York tonight. Arizona will have Robbie Ray on the mound and he's owned the Mets in his career. Ray has a 0.82 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 4 starts against New York. Mets counter with Steven Matz, who has a 4.76 ERA in 4 starts against the Diamondbacks. That includes an ugly start at Arizona earlier this season (only start versus them in 2019), where he gave up 5 runs on 8 hits (2 HRs) in 6 innings. Matz is 0-9 on the money line in his last 9 starts in the 2nd half of the season vs NL teams averaging 5 or more runs/game. Dbacks are 11-4 in their last 15 overall, 4-0 in their last 4 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and a perfect 8-0 in Ray's last 8 road starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Arizona! |
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09-11-19 | Braves -132 v. Phillies | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Braves -132 I got no problem back Atlanta as a decently sized road favorite against the Phillies. Braves will have Dallas Keuchel on the mound and the former Cy Young winner has been dealing of late. Keuchel has allowed a mere 3 earned run over his last 5 starts, pitching at least 6 innings in each outing. Phillies will turn to Zach Eflin to try and counter Keuchel. Eflin is just 5-8 with a 5.38 ERA in 16 night starts and he owns a 5.04 ERA over 13 starts against division opponents this season. He's got a 5.02 ERA in 5 career starts vs the Braves. Take Atlanta! |
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09-10-19 | Cubs v. Padres +139 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 139 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Padres +139 Love the value here with the Padres as a big home dog against the Cubs. Chicago won the opener 10-2 on Monday with 15 hits. The thing is that offense can't be trusted. The Cubs scored 10 runs on 16 hits in last week's series opener at Milwaukee and the very next night scored 1 run on 3 hits. Padres will have Ronald Bolanos on the mound and the 23-year-old Cuban rookie was impressive in his first big league start. Bolanos allowed just 2 run on 5 hits in 6 innings at Arizona. Cubs on the other hand will have Jose Quintana on the mound and he's got a mere 4.11 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in 13 road starts. He's also got a poor 4.91 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Cubs are just 3-10 in Quintana's last 13 road starts in the 2nd half vs a team that's getting outscored by 0.5+ runs/game. Take San Diego! |
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09-10-19 | Reds v. Mariners +121 | 3-4 | Win | 121 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Mariners +121 Seattle is worth a look here as a home dog against the Reds. I know the Mariners have not been playing great here of late, but no way should Cincinnati be a road favorite here. Tough spot here for the Reds going from playing 7 straight at home to traveling way out west for this series against a struggling seattle team. Speaking of struggling, Cincinnati starter Trevor Bauer has a 12.75 ERA and 2.333 WHIP in his last 3 starts. During this stretch Bauer has allowed a staggering 18 runs on 21 hits in a mere 12 innings of work. Mariners are 7-2 last 9 at home vs a team with a losing record. Reds are 15-42 last 57 interleague road games and 1-10 last 11 following an off day. Take Seattle! |
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09-10-19 | Cardinals -143 v. Rockies | 1-2 | Loss | -143 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Vegas Money Line DESTROYER on Cardinals -143 Easy play here on the Cardinals in Tuesday's series opener at Colorado. St Louis is one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch run. Cardinals are 23-7 over their last 30 games. Rockies are the exact opposite. Colorado is a mere 1-11 in their last 12. St Louis will have Michael Wacha on the mound and he's been throwing well of late. He's got a 3.29 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Colorado will counter with Chi Chi Gonzalez, who is 0-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in 9 starts. All 9 starts the Rockies have lost. Take St Louis! |
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09-09-19 | Mihaela Buzarnescu v. V Tomova +155 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
4* TENNIS - Late Night NO-BRAINER on Viktoriya Tomova +155 I like Viktoriya Tomova to knock off Mihaela Buzarnescu in the opening round of the 2019 Hana-cupid Japan Open. Too good a price here to pass between two struggling players. Both are ranked outside Top 120. Surface for this is outdoor hard and that's worth noting, as Buzarnescu is just 3-13 in matches on outdoor hard surfaces this season. Take Tomova! |
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09-09-19 | Cubs v. Padres +136 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Padres +136 I love the value here with San Diego as a decently priced home dog against the Cubs. Padres will be up for a showdown with Chicago, who is fighting for a playoff spot. They are also catching the Cubs in a funk, as they just lost 3 straight to close out their series with the Brewers. The offense has gone ice-cold for Chicago at the wrong time. Cubs are hitting just .222 as a team in their last 7 and that's why I'm okay with backing a struggling starter in Cal Quantrill. It's also worth pointing out that while the Cubs have what looks like a good starter in Kyle Hendricks going, he's just 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in 14 road starts. Take San Diego! |
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09-09-19 | Pirates v. Giants -150 | 6-4 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Giants -150 Easy play here on the Giants with veteran ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound. San Francisco has won 9 of Bumgarner's last 10 starts and the lone loss came on the road. Bumgarner is 6-2 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.925 WHIP in 16 home starts. Pirates were playing decent, but just lost 4 of 6 at home to the Marlins and Cardinals. I think they just want to get this series over with and get ready for a big series at Chicago where they can play spoiler against the Cubs. Pittsburgh will send out Trevor Williams. He's pitched well of late against some bad teams, but still has a 5.23 ERA in 22 starts. Take San Francisco! |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 133 h 33 m | Show |
5* NFL - Texans/Saints MNF HEAVY HITTER on Texans +7 -106 I absolutely love the the value here with Houston. The betting public loves Drew Brees and the Saints and will almost back them no matter what at home, especially in a prime time game like this. New Orleans is definitely a top tier team in the NFC, but no way should they be laying a touchdown in Week 1 to a very talented Texans team. It's almost like people forget how good Houston was last year. The Texans won the AFC South at 11-5 and yet were being picked by many to finish as low as 3rd in the division. DeShaun Watson had a big year that got overlooked with all the Mahomes/Goff hype. I know they just lost a great defensive player in Jadeveon Clowney, but in the process they made a huge upgrade on the offensive line by adding in Laremy Tunsil. If they can get better play up front, look out. Watson threw for over 4,000 yards with a 26-9 TD-INT ratio, despite being sacked 62 times (most since 2006). The defense also still has an elite player in J.J. Watt, who is coming off a 16 sack season. It feels like forever since he's been this healthy coming into a season. I'm not saying they are going to stop Brees and the Saints, but I think they can do enough to keep this close and cash in a cover. Take Houston! |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 8 m | Show |
5* NFL - Pats/Steelers Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Steelers +6 -110 I love the points with Pittsburgh, as the Steelers head to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. New England is the only team that no matter what happens in the offseason, it's just assumed they are going to be good. I expect the Patriots to be a threat in the AFC, but at least for now Tom Brady doesn't have Gronk. I know his play had declined some in the last couple of years, but Brady's numbers were drastically better with him on the field. I could definitely see that offense struggling early and it's not uncommon for the Pats to not look their best in the first couple weeks of the season. Pittsburgh is a team that I think people are kinda sleeping on. The Steelers losing both Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown has a lot to do with that. However, they showed they didn't need Bell last year and after the last month or so, I think Pittsburgh has to be thrilled to not have that headache in Brown. I think the offense won't miss a beat with Big Ben under center and that defense has a lot of talented young players. Take Pittsburgh! |
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09-08-19 | Rockies +150 v. Padres | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Money Line NO-BRAINER on Rockies +150 Really like the value here with Colorado as a big road dog against the Padres. These are two bad teams with not a lot to play for and neither has been playing great. No way should San Diego be this big of a favorite in a toss-up game. If anything, I would give a slight edge to the Rockies given the struggles of Padres starter Eric Lauer against Colorado. Lauer is 0-3 with a 11.21 ERA and 2.490 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Rockies. Take Colorado! |
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09-08-19 | Aces -2.5 v. Mercury | 98-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
4* WNBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Aces -2½ -115 I'm confident the Aces are going to go on the road and get a win at Phoenix. Vegas has been struggling of late and really need to get back on track before the postseason. Mercury are just the team to do that against. Phoenix has lost 3 straight, all by double-digits, and the last two were at home as a favorite. Phoenix is just 4-12 ATS last 16 at home after giving up 75+ points in each of their last 2 games and 0-6 ATS over the last two seasons off a upset loss at home to a division foe. Take Las Vegas! |
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09-08-19 | Angels v. White Sox +114 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 114 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB - AL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on White Sox +114 Love the White Sox at home on Sunday against the Angels. Chicago has been really swinging a hot bat of late. White Sox put up 7 runs on Saturday and have scored 30 over their last 5. I look for Chicago to put up a big number here against LA's Jaime Barria, who is just 2-4 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in 8 road starts this season. White Sox will send out Dylan Cease. I know the numbers don't look great for Cease, but he's coming off a really strong start at Cleveland. He gave up just 4 runs on 6 2/3 innings. He only gave up 4 hits and had 11 strikeouts in the performance. Angels are 5-16 in their last 21 road games and have lost 5 straight on the road with Barria listed as the starter. Take Chicago! |
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09-08-19 | Nationals v. Braves +120 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Braves +120 Even with Max Scherzer taking the mound for Washington, I really like the value we are getting here with Atlanta as a home dog on Sunday. Braves have already won the first 3 games of the series and now have their winning streak up to 9 games. Washington on the other hand has lost 4 straight. Scherzer has also been limited a bit since returning to the rotation on 8/22. He's got a mere 4.40 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in those 3 starts. Atlanta will have Mike Soroka on the mound and he's definitely capable of going toe-to-toe with Scherzer. Soroka is 11-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 25 starts this season. In his last start for the Nats, he limited them to just 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings. Take Atlanta! |
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09-08-19 | Titans +6 v. Browns | 43-13 | Win | 100 | 123 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Titans +6 -110 There's a ton of hype around Cleveland this year and I think it has them a bit overvalued here in Week 1 against the Titans. Tennessee doesn't wow you, but they are modeling themselves after the Patriots under head coach Mike Vrabel. Much like when Belichick first put NE on the map, the strength of the Titans is their defense. Tennessee ranked 8th in total defense (333.4 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (18.9 ppg) last year. They also figure to once again have one of the leagues best run games behind Derrick Henry. Ball control and ball security is what I think of with Tennessee. I think the Titans can play keep away enough to disrupt the rhythm of the Browns and offense. I think this is going to be a one-score game and wouldn't be shocked if the Titans pulled off the upset. Take Tennessee! |
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09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +4 | 40-26 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NFL - Chiefs/Jaguars ATS DESTROYER on Jaguars +4 -110 There's all kinds of hype around this Kansas City team and the offensive firepower they figure to have behind reigning MVP Pat Mahomes. No question the Chiefs will be one of the top scoring teams in 2019, but this Jacksonville defense is no joke. I think the Jaguars added another stud on this side of the ball in Josh Allen. This might be the best defense in the league. They were No. 2 in the NFL against the pass last year. While they lost 30-14 at KC last year, they actually held Mahomes without a TD pass and intercepted him twice. Problem for the Jags is Blake Bortles and the offense had 5 turnovers. No more Bortles to screw things up for the Jags, as they went out and signed Nick Foles to a big deal. While I don't know if Foles will ever be as good as that playoff run a couple years back, there's no question he's an upgrade over Bortles. Chiefs defense may be improved, but it's still middle of the pack at best. I think the Jags win this one. Take Jacksonville! |
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09-07-19 | Tulsa -6 v. San Jose State | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 87 h 31 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Tulsa -6 -110 I really like this spot for the Golden Hurricane. I look for Tulsa to have zero problem securing a win and cover at San Jose State on Saturday. Tulsa lost their opener 28-7 at Michigan State, but that was to be expected. Golden Hurricane covered in the loss as a 24-point dog. I'm not worried about the fact that they had just 7 points and 80 total yards. That's not a good Spartans defense, it's elite this year. At the same time the Tulsa defense more than held their own against Michigan State, limiting them to just 303 yards and 2.7 yards/carry on the ground. Keep in mind Tulsa brought back 8 starters from a defense that went from giving up 37.5 in 2017 to allowing just 29.6 ppg last year. San Jose State beat Northern Colorado 35-18 and while they won by 17, it was too close for comfort against a FCS opponent. Northern Colorado was just 2-9 last year and didn't play a single FBS team. Spartans are now 1-7 ATS last 8 non-conference. Golden Hurricane have covered 12 of their last 15 vs a team with a winning record and are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Tulsa! |
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09-07-19 | Rockies v. Padres -159 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line MASSACRE on Padres -159 Easy play here on San Diego to cash in a win at home against the Rockies. Padres have a huge edge on the mound with them sending out Joey Lucchesi and Colorado turning to Jeff Hochman. Lucchesi has been really good of late with a 2.12 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's been great all season at home, where he's got a 2.84 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 14 starts. Hochman has a 9.00 ERA and 2.083 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 7.34 ERA and 1.698 WHIP in 10 starts overall. Take San Diego! |
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09-07-19 | Nevada +24.5 v. Oregon | Top | 6-77 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Vegas Undervalued DOG OF THE MONTH on Nevada +24½ -110 Even though the Ducks came up short in their Week 1 loss at Auburn, I think a lot of people were impressed with how well Oregon hung around with the Tigers. This is also a team that was getting a ton of hype preseason because of quarterback Justin Herbert. I believe it has the Ducks way overvalued here at home against Nevada. This far from an easy spot for Oregon, who still has to be licking their wounds from that meltdown against Auburn. The Ducks led 21-6 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter and gave up the game-winning TD with 9 seconds left on a 26-yard pass by a true freshmen. Nevada on the other hand comes in off a thrilling 34-31 win at home over Purdue. The Wolf Pack trailed 31-14 in the 2nd half. They tied it at 31-31 with less than a minute to play and won the game on a 56-yard field on the last play of the game. I don't think Nevada is capable of winning this game on the road, but I do think the Wolf Pack have the offensive fire-power to easily cover the number here. Take Nevada +24.5! |
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09-07-19 | Arkansas +7 v. Ole Miss | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF - Ole Miss/Ark SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas +7 -110 I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a decently priced road dog against the Rebels. I think Arkansas is a team flying under the radar after going just 2-10 in 2019. This is now year two under head coach Chad Morris and I expect big improvement. We saw it as his last job (SMU). His first year Mustangs were just 2-10 SU. Next year they were 5-7, but most importantly a dominant 8-4 ATS (5-1 ATS on the road). I think this Arkansas team is going to be a similar covering machine. I know the Razorbacks didn't look great in their win over Portland State in Week 1, but I think a lot of that was simply knowing they were the superior team and having their conference opener on deck. Neither of their transfer QBs played great in Ben Hicks and Nick Starkel, but I'm confident in their ability. As for Ole Miss, they played Memphis tough on the road, but came up painfully short in a 15-10 loss. That's not an easy kind of loss to bounce back from. They were also lucky for it to be that close. Memphis outgained them 364 to 173. Ole Miss had fewer than 100 yards both passing and rushing. No way should this team be laying more than a field goal at home against another SEC team. Take Arkansas! |
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09-07-19 | Phillies v. Mets -154 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -154 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Mets -154 Love the Mets to come away with a win on Saturday. New York won a thriller 5-4 over the Phillies last night and have won 5 of 7. Philadelphia has lost 3 straight and may not have Bryce Harper for this one. More than anything the Mets have a big edge on the mound with Marcus Stroman facing off against Drew Smyly. Stroman just held these same Phillies to a mere 2 runs in 6 innings on the road. Smyly is 3-5 with an awful 6.06 ERA and 1.602 WHIP in 17 starts. Phillies are 6-20 in their last 26 as a dog of +125 to +175 and the Mets are 15-5 last 20 after scoring 5 or more and 9-3 last 12 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take New York! |
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09-07-19 | Indians v. Twins -160 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line DESTROYER on Twins -160 Twins should have no problem coming away with a win at home over the Indians on Saturday. While Minnesota lost the opener last night, that's a rare loss of late. Twins are still 15-6 over their last 21, including a 10-3 run in their last 13. Twins will have Jake Odorizzi on the mound and he's gone 7-2 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 13 home starts. Odorizzi has really enjoyed pitching against the other teams in the AL East. He's 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts vs a division opponent this season. Twins also just don't lose often with him on the mound. They are 22-8 in his last 30 starts. They have won 8 of his last 11 vs a team with a winning record, 16-5 in his last 21 at home and 8-2 in his last 10 vs the AL Central. Take Minnesota! |
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09-07-19 | Central Florida -9.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 84 h 28 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Central Florida -9½ -110 I look for UCF to have no problem here beating FAU by at least two touchdowns. I think the Owls are getting a little too much love here after covering a big number at Ohio State last week. FAU only had 228 total yards in that game and were fortunate to only lose by just 24 after falling behind 28-0 less than 10 minutes into the game. I like Lane Kiffin and that team should be competitive in C-USA, but there's a much bigger gap in talent between FAU and UCF than the number here would suggest. While the Knights are ranked No. 18, it doesn't feel like there's as much hype with this year's team. No one is going to get excited about them beating Florida A&M 62-0. I just think they got too much offense for the Owls to keep it close. No Mckenzie Milton, no problem. The duo of Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush and true freshman Dillon Gabriel threw for 295 yards and 5 scores. These two teams played last year at Central Florida. The Knights won that contest 56-36. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the final score was something similar. FAU is now just 1-4 ATS last 5 non-conference games and 0-5 ATS last 5 games in the month of September. Knights are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road, 5-1 ATS last 6 after a win by 20 or more and 4-1 last 5 vs a team from C-USA. Take UCF! |
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09-07-19 | Texas A&M v. Clemson -17 | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF - Texas A&M/Clemson BIG GAME ATS WINNER on Clemson -17 -105 The betting public is all over the Aggies here. The narrative going into this one is how Texas A&M played Clemson better than anyone last year and will want revenge. The Aggies also looked good in their 41-7 win over Texas State last week. On the Tigers side of things, they made easy work of Georgia Tech with a 52-14 win, but Trevor Lawrence didn't play well. Lawrence had 2 picks and was just 13 of 23 for 168 yards. I'm not reading anything into that. No way was Clemson the least bit threatened by the Yellow Jackets. I think the Tigers simply went through the motions and were trying to be as conservative as they could offensively to not put too much on tape for the Aggies. I just think this is an elite offense and will have zero problem moving the ball against Texas A&M. One thing people have to remember with last year's close call, is that was in College Station. Texas A&M was just 1-3 on the road last year and are just 18-38 ATS last 56 as a road dog and 4-17 ATS last 21 on the road with a total of 63 or more. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 35+ ppg the previous year and were up by 17 or more at the half in their last game are 27-6 (82%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Clemson -17! |
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09-06-19 | Marshall v. Boise State -10.5 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -106 | 83 h 58 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - 'Group of 5' Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Boise State -10½ -106 I like this Marshall team and could see them being a force in Conference USA this year, but I think Boise State is on a different level. I not only think the Broncos win at home Friday night over the Thundering Herd, I think they do so with ease. You never really know what you are going to get from a true freshman quarterback until they play in a game. I don't think there's many concerns lingering for Boise State's Hank Bachmeier. The true freshmen threw for 407 yards on 30 of 51 passing in Week 1 and did it on the road against a Power 5 opponent in FSU. Even more impressive is he guided his team back from a 31-13 deficit. Marshall only gave up 21.8 ppg and 339 ypg, but a lot of that is playing in C-USA. They gave up 37 points and 502 yards to NC State and 41 points and 454 yards to Va Tech. I think Boise will have no problem scoring 35+ here and I like the Broncos defense to keep Marshall to 20 or fewer, giving us plenty of breathing room to cash in a cover. Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after giving up 24 or more points in the 1st half of their last game and are 11-2 ATS last 13 off an upset win as an underdog. Take Boise State! |
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09-06-19 | Wake Forest v. Rice UNDER 59 | 41-21 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 51 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF - Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER on Wake Forest/Rice under 59 -105 The books have set the total way too high for Friday's showdown between Rice and Wake Forest. While the Demon Deacons just played in a shootout last week against Utah State, the Owls lost 14-7 at Army, coming no where close to the total of 46.5. I don't think Rice is getting enough credit for what they did on the road against Army last week. While Army had 231 rushing yards, they needed 56 attempts to get there. Now they head home for a pretty big home game, as this is one of just two FBS matchups on the board tonight. I look for the defense to feed off the home crowd. I could see Rice scoring more than 7-points this week, but I don't think they are going to light up the scoreboard. Owls only attempted 14 passes last week and when you focus on the run and can't pick up big yards in the air, you eat up a lot clock. UNDER has cashed in 15 of the Demon Deacons last 20 games vs a team with a losing record and 4-0-1 in the Owls last 5 after totaling fewer than 170 yards in their last game. Take the UNDER! |
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09-06-19 | Nationals v. Braves +102 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
5* MLB - Nats/Braves NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Braves +102 Love the value here with Atlanta, as the Braves should have no problem winning at home an extending their winning streak to 8-games. Atlanta will have Dallas Keuchel on the mound and he's been dealing. Keuchel has a 1.42 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also got a strong 2.38 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in 7 home starts. Speaking of home/away splits, National's Pat Corbin has not been the same guy when he's pitching outside of Washington. Corbin is 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA in 14 home starts and is just 4-4 with a 4.61 ERA in 14 road starts. No surprise given these numbers the Nats are just 3-7 in his last 10 road starts. Braves are 6-1 last 7 at home vs a team with a winning record and 6-0 in their last 6 vs a left-handed starter. Take Atlanta! |
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09-06-19 | Royals +118 v. Marlins | 3-0 | Win | 118 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Royals +118 Kansas City should have no problem winning on the road against the Marlins. Royals have feasted off similar NL teams, as they are 10-4 in their last 14 interleague road games against an opponent that gives up 4.5 or more runs/game. Not to mention that while the Royals are completely out of it, they come in having won 4 of their last 5. Marlins are coming off a win, but that's almost an automatic fade, as they are 7-20 in their last 27 off a win. Take Kansas City! |
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09-06-19 | Diamondbacks v. Reds +112 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line DESTROYER on Reds +112 Cincinnati is worth a look here as a home dog. Reds just took the last two in their series with the Phillies and I like them to win the opener tonight against Arizona. Cincinnati will have Tyler Mahle on the mound and he's coming off a great start at St Louis. Mahle held the Cardinals to just 1 earned run on 2 hits with 0 walks and 5 strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings of work. While Mahle will be throwing with confidence, Diamondbacks Robbie Ray is off a poor showing, giving up 4 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in just 5 innings. Ray also owns a mere 4.09 ERA in 4 career starts against the Reds (Cinc 3-1 in those starts). Arizona has lost 4 straight starts by Ray on the road against a team with a losing record. Take Cincinnati! |
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09-05-19 | Storm v. Sparks -5.5 | Top | 68-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
5* WNBA - Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Sparks -5½ -110 This is just too good a price to lay a big bet on the Sparks at home. Los Angeles is 13-2 at home on the season and enter this game riding a 12-game home winning streak. Sparks are beating teams by 8.4 points/game on their home floor and most importantly are 9-3 ATS during the 12-game winning streak. Storm have a losing record (6-9) on the road and are not a team you want to be backing when they are up against a quality opponent. Seattle has gone just 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record. I don't see the Storm keeping this one anywhere close to the number. Take Los Angeles! |
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09-05-19 | Twins +135 v. Red Sox | 2-1 | Win | 135 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Twins +135 I love the value here with the Twins as a decently priced road dog against the Red Sox. This line should be closer to a pick'em with the starting pitching matchup. If anything, I would trust Minnesota's Martin Perez a little more. Perez was rocked in his last start for 7 runs at Detroit, but prior to that outing had allowed just 4 earned runs over his previous 3 starts. Nathan Eovaldi will go for Boston and he's got a 8.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his 3 starts since returning ton the rotation in the middle of August. Twins are 50-17 in their last 67 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Boston won yesterday, but Twins are 38-16 last 54 off a loss and a dominant 20-6 in their last 26 after scoring 2 runs or less. Take Minnesota! |
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09-05-19 | Aces v. Dream +11 | 74-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
3* WNBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Dream +11 -108 Atlanta is worth a look in this one. I think we are seeing the Aces way overvalued in this spot. That's because the public knows that Las Vegas needs to win their final two games to secure at least the No. 4 seed (have a shot at No. 3) and a first round bye. The Dream on the other hand are all but a lock to finish with the worst record in the league. Atlanta has continued to play hard and I would expect a big effort at home with the opportunity to play spoiler. It's also worth noting Vegas has lost 3 straight on the road and the defense was not there in all 3 losses. They gave up 89 to Connecticut, 98 to Minnesota nd 86 to Indiana, losing two of the three as a favorite. Take Atlanta! |
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09-05-19 | Phillies v. Reds -155 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Reds -155 Easy play here on Cincinnati at home Thursday. Reds will send out arguably the best pitcher going in the game right now. In Gray's last 6 starts he's allowed just 3 earned runs on 18 hits and has racked up 44 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. That includes two starts against the Cardinals, 1 against the Cubs and 1 against the Braves, so he's not just doing this against bad teams. While Gray is on a different level right now, Phillies starter Jason Vargas is in bad form. Vargas has a 6.32 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also got a poor 5.23 ERA and 1.331 WHIP in 11 road starts this season. Reds are 13-3 in Gray's last 16 starts vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 7-0 in his last 7 starts at home. Take Cincinnati! |
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09-04-19 | Twins +125 v. Red Sox | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Twins +125 I like the value here with Minnesota as a decently priced road dog against the Red Sox. After struggling for most of August, Twins starter Jose Berrios finally put the pieces back together in his last start. I look for him to build off that outing tonight. Berrios has a strong 3.20 ERA in 4 career starts against the Red Sox. He pitched into the 7th inning in 3 of the 4 starts. In his lone start against Boston in 2019, he was dominant, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits with 10 K's in 8 innings. Minnesota took the opener last night and the Red Sox are now 2-8 in their last 10 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Twins have won 4 straight road starts by Berrios and are 38-16 in their last 54 road games overall. Take Minnesota! |
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09-04-19 | Giants +113 v. Cardinals | Top | 9-8 | Win | 113 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants +113 I love the Giants to secure a win at St Louis tonight. San Francisco comes in having lost 4 straight, but will have their ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound to stop the bleeding. Giants have won 8 of Bumgarner's last 9 starts. He was dominant last time out, limiting the Padres to just 1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings. Cardinals will counter with Michael Wacha. While he's coming off a couple of decent outings, he's still a mere 5-6 with a 4.99 ERA in 19 starts this season. He's also got an awful 5.22 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 8 starts at home. St Louis is 1-6 in their last 7 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Giants 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take San Francisco! |
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09-03-19 | Astros -155 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
5* MLB - Astros/Brewers VEGAS INSIDER on Astros -155 Love the Astros to secure another win on the road against the Brewers. We were on Houston Monday and they delivered a 3-2 win. I don't expect it to be that close tonight. Astros will have Zack Greinke on the mound and he'll be up against Milwaukee's Jordan Lyles. Needless to say this is quite the pitching mismatch. Greinke is 14-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in 28 starts. Lyles is 9-8 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 23 starts. Greinke faced Milwaukee earlier this season and held them to a mere 2 runs on 6 hits with 9 strikeouts in 7 innings. Astros are 36-17 in their last 53 interleague road games and have won 4 of Greinke's 5 starts since he came over in that big trade. Take Houston! |
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09-03-19 | Blue Jays +200 v. Braves | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational DOG OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays +200 This is just too good a price to pass up with Toronto. I know the Blue Jays have been struggling and the Braves come in having won 5 straight, but it's hard to not fade Atlanta's Mike Foltynewicz as a huge favorite. Folynewicz has been a little better of late, but is still 4-5 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in 16 starts this season. He's really been disappointing at home, where he's 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 8 starts. Wilmer Font will start for Toronto and he's got a strong 3.90 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in 12 starts as the opener. He was the starter in the Blue Jays 3-1 win over Atlanta last week in Toronto. Blue Jays are 10-4 in Font's last 14 as a dog of +100 or more and 7-2 in his last 9 as a dog of +150 or more. Take Toronto! |
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09-03-19 | Mets v. Nationals -126 | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line DESTROYER on Nationals -126 Washington is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Mets. Nationals come into this series on quite the roll. Washington is 9-2 in their last 11 overall. They will have ace Max Scherzer on the mound, who will be making his 3rd start back from the IL. While Scherzer only completed 4 1/3 inning in start number two, he increased his pitch count by almost 20 to 89. I think he will be real close to full go in this one (100 pitches). He's 10-5 with a sensational 2.51 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in 19 starts against the Mets. Washington is 9-1 in his last 10 starts and the Nationals are 20-8 in their last 28 after losing the last time out. Mets are a mere 8-17 in deGrom's last 25 starts and have gone a staggering 8-23 in his last 31 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Washington! |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville +18.5 | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF - Notre Dame/Louisville ATS DESTROYER on Louisville +18½ -110 I think it's worth a shot to back the Cardinals as a three score dog against Notre Dame. While the Irish will have Ian Book back from last year's 12-1 playoff team, the defense loses a lot. Notre Dame has to replace 3 NFL draft picks on that side of the ball and if not for the defense they would have never sniffed the playoffs. The Irish had 5 wins last year where they failed to score 25 or more points. They were a perfect 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Thats a big arrow pointing for regression in 2019. The other big thing is I think people are sleeping on Louisville. I absolutely loved the hire of Scott Satterfield from Appalachian State. He brought over his DC,Bryan Brown and I think he does wonders here with the Cardinals defense. The big thing I think people are overlooking is that the team quit on head coach Bobby Petrino, which is why the numbers were so bad across the board for this team. A lot more talent on the roster than you think and they got 16 returning starters. Take Louisville! |
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09-02-19 | Astros -173 v. Brewers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB - Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Astros -173 I got no problem laying the big number here with Houston on the road. The Astros will be riding a wave of momentum into Milwaukee, as Justin Verlander threw a no-hitter in Sunday's series finale at Toronto. Now they turn to the potential AL Cy Young winner in Gerrit Cole, who enters this contest at 15-5 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 27 starts. He's been on top of his game of late, striking out a ridiculous 36 hitters over his last 19 2/3 innings (36 of the 59 outs recorded were via K's) Brewers will have Adrian Houser on the mound and he's pitched well of late, but he's due for a bad outing. Houser is a mere 2-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in 12 starts. Milwaukee is 2-6 in his last 8 starts vs a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 to open a series. Take Houston! |
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09-02-19 | Twins v. Tigers +200 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Tigers +200 I just can't pass up on the Tigers as a +200 dog against the Twins on Monday. Veteran Jordan Zimmermann will take the mound for Detroit and he's been outstanding of late. Zimmermann has a 2.25 ERA and 0.625 WHIP over his last 3 starts. All 3 against potential playoff teams (Rays, Astros, Indians). Twins will turn to Jake Odorizzi, who has a strong 3.55 ERA in 26 starts, but he does own a very mediocre 4.32 ERA and 1.380 WHIP in his last 3 starts. I also think this is a potential flat spot for Minnesota with the early start time and them heading to Boston for a big series against the Red Sox right after this one is over. Take Detroit! |
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09-02-19 | Andrey Rublev -185 v. Matteo Berrettini | 0-3 | Loss | -185 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
4* TENNIS - US Open 4th Rd CASH COW on Andrey Rublev -185 I'm backing Andrey Rublev to knock off Matteo Berrettini in Monday's early action at the US Open. I've really been impressed with Rublev in this tournament. With his 3 wins so far he's now 25-11 on hard surfaces this season. Matteo is 9-7 on hard and while the higher ranked player, there's a reason he's such a big dog here. Take Rublev! |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma -21.5 | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -115 | 152 h 8 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Houston/Oklahoma ATS HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma -21½ -115 I got no problem laying the points with Oklahoma. I think the betting public is going to be all over Houston given the hype around this team with Dana Holgorsen leaving West Virginia to take over. Holgorsen is known for his ability to get a lot out of the QB position and the Cougars have a good one in D'Eriq King. However, Houston is out-classed big time in this one. I get Baker Mayfield and Kylar Murray were big time talents, but their success is 100% a result of Lincoln Riley's brilliant offensive mind. No reason not to expect this offense to be potent with Jalen Hurts running the show. I also think Oklahoma's defense will be greatly improved under coordinator Alex Grinch. Houston on the other hand lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. Sooners are going to score at will and I just don't see Houston being able to keep pace. Take Oklahoma! |
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09-01-19 | Red Sox v. Angels +101 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Angels +101 Love the Angels to win here at home against the Red Sox in Sunday's series finale. Boston will have David Price on the mound and he's been struggling. Price has a 9.69 ERA and 2.154 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Last time out he was torched for 7 runs on 9 hits in 2 2/3 innings. Angels will counter with Andrew Heaney, who has been lights out in his last 3 starts. Heaney has a 1.71 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in his last 3 starts. During this stretch he's given up a mere 4 earned runs on 12 hits with 30 strikeouts in 21 innings. Boston is 0-5 in Price's last 5 starts and 1-4 in their last 5 on the road vs a left-handed starter. Angeles are 5-0 in Heaney's last 5 starts and 9-2 in his last 11 starts after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take Los Angeles! |