Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-31-18 | Jazz v. Wolves UNDER 223 | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz UNDER The books have completely missed the mark with this total. No way the Jazz and Timberwolves combine for 224 or more points. Minnesota is coming off a high-scoring game against LA, which was played at a frantic pace. While the Timberwolves put up 124, they only shot 42.9% from the field. That's 4 straight games where Minnesota has shot 43% or worse. Utah's defense gave up a couple of big numbers right out of the gate, but in their last 4 games they are holding their opponents to just 99.0 ppg. We saw the Timberwolves only score 95 in their previous home game against the Bucks. Look for the Jazz to really rely on that defense in this one, as they aren't going to want to play up-tempo here. This will be Utah's 4 straight on the road and 3rd game in the last 5 nights. Note that the UNDER is a solid 76-40 (66%) since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more where a team is playing their 4th straight on the road and playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER! |
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10-31-18 | Ball State +18 v. Toledo | 13-45 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Ball State + I like the value here with the Cardinals as a 3-score underdog against the Rockets. Ball State is getting zero respect here from the books and a big reason for that is the injury to starting quarterback Riley Neal, who will not play in this one. That's a big loss for Ball State, but they got a capable backup in Drew Plitt, who has played in 4 games and flashed some potential. I could see why you would hesitate to take the Cardinals if Toledo featured a great defense, but the Rockets have been pretty bad on that side of the ball this year. Toledo is 98th in the country against the run (186.4 ypg) and 112th against the pass (273.4 ypg). Not only should Ball State be able to score early and often, but if they do struggle, the backdoor figures to be wide open for a late cover. I also think the injury to Neal could make it difficult for Toledo to give this Cardinals team their full attention. They have to feel like all they have to do is show up to get the win and making it even harder to give Ball State their full attention is a massive game on deck against Northern Illinois, which they need to win to have any shot at defending their MAC West title. Cardinals have had a lot of success against the number at the Glass Bowl, as they have covered 7 of their last 10 visits to Toledo. The Rockets are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a game where they scored 40+ points. Take Ball State! |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH +7 v. Buffalo | 42-51 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Miami/Buffalo MAC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miami + Buffalo is getting way to much respect here at home against a good Miami team. Don't be fooled by the RedHawks 3-5 record. They went 0-4 in non-conference play, losing to the likes of Marshall, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Their only loss inside conference play is a mere 1-point defeat at home to Western Michigan. This team has been extremely undervalued since their 0-3 start and since losing their first 3, they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. The thing is Buffalo has been even better. The Bulls are 7-1 overall and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7. The public is fully on board with this team and to them it's not asking a lot to win by at least a touchdown. I not only think the Bulls will struggle to cover this number, but I could easily see the RedHawks winning this game outright. These two teams have played two common opponents and Miami has looked better in each. The RedHawks went on the road and beat Akron 41-17, Buffalo only beat them 24-6 at home. Miami lost in overtime at Army 31-30 and the Bulls lost at home to the Black Knights 42-13. I just think these are two very evenly matched teams, much more so than this spread would suggest. RedHawks are 5-0 ATS last 5 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road. Take Miami! |
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10-30-18 | Pistons +9.5 v. Celtics | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Pistons + Love this price and spot with Detroit in a big time revenge game against the Celtics. These two teams just played in Detroit on Saturday, which Boston won by 20 (109-89) as a slim 3.5-point road favorite. Now the Celtics are a near double-digit favorite at home in a game that is going to mean a lot more to the Pistons than it is Boston. Detroit simply had an off night shooting against the Celtics on Saturday. They went just 33 of 89 (37.1%) from the field. Easily their worst shooting performance of the season. They are going to have a much better idea of what Boston is trying to do to them defensively and let's not forget the Pistons were 4-0 before that loss. Detroit is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Celtics on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Detroit! |
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10-30-18 | Hawks +5 v. Cavs | 114-136 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Hawks + Atlanta has already went into Cleveland and had their way with the Cavs 133-111 this season. While the Hawks will be playing on no rest, there's too much value here with Atlanta to pass up. The Cavaliers are a complete mess. They have already fired their head coach and now Kevin Love is out with a foot injury. Cleveland plays no defense, as opponents are shooting 51.2% from the field and 42.2% from long-distance. Offensively they have been dreadful from behind the 3-point line and it's not going to get any better with Love out. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Hawks won by double-digits in Cleveland again. Take Atlanta! |
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10-30-18 | Islanders v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on under
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills +14 | Top | 25-6 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 25 m | Show |
5* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Bills + We are seeing a ridiculous overreaction with this line for Monday Night Football. The books know that the public is going to come in on New England here no matter the price, so they jacked this thing way up. As bad as Buffalo has looked, you just can't pass up getting two touchdowns with a division home dog, especially in a prime time game, where we know the crowd will be into it. There's no denying the Bills' offense is a work in progress, but I think they can get something going here against the Patriots. New England's defense hasn't exactly been shutting teams down. The Patriots are 20th against the run and 24th against the pass. They have given up 31 to the Jaguars, 26 to the Lions and 31 to the Bears in their 3 road games this season. Note they lost to both Jacksonville and Detroit and barely held on for a 7-point win at Chicago. The even bigger key here is the Bills have the talent defensively to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Buffalo has the 4th best defense in the NFL, giving up only 320.9 ypg, which is really a remarkable feat when you factor in how much they have had to be on the field with how bad the offense has been. I don't think the Bills will have what it takes to win this game outright, but with a max effort on both sides at home, I think they can make a game of it and keep this well within the number. Take Buffalo! |
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10-29-18 | Lakers +1 v. Wolves | 120-124 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Lakers + I've really liked what I have seen out of this Lakers team and while they come in with a 2-4 record, they could easily be 4-2 and have a much different perception than we see now. With Ingram back from his suspension and the way the LA offense has clicked early, I think they are going to score at will here against the dysfunctional Timberwolves. The Jimmy Butler drama has been a massive distraction for everyone involved in Minnesota. The sooner they make a move and move past this thing the better, but for now they are a team I will look to fade. The Timberwolves just lost at home to the bucks by a final score of 125-95. That really tells you how out of sync this team is. Not only are they not playing defense, the shots aren't falling on offense. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-29-18 | Kings v. Heat -8 | Top | 123-113 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Heat - Great spot here to fade the Kings on the road. Sacramento is off back-to-back upset wins at home, as they defeated Memphis 97-92 as a 3-point dog and the Wizards 116-112 as a 5-point dog. I think it has the Kings getting a little too much respect here against a Heat team that is off back-to-back impressive wins at home. Miami crushed the Knicks at home 110-87 and then followed that up with a 120-111 win over Portland. Long way for Sacramento to travel to open up their road trip and I look for them to come out a bit flat. That should be more than enough for the Heat to win here by double-digits. Kings are just 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. Sacramento has also struggled on the boards and the Heat are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 vs a team that is getting out-rebounded by 3+ boards per game. Take Miami! |
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10-28-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -135 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
5* LATE INFO INSIDER on Dodgers No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in announced lineups and weather conditions. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-28-18 | Suns v. Thunder OVER 219 | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on over
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-28-18 | Rangers +154 v. Kings | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Rangers
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-28-18 | Redskins v. Giants +1 | 20-13 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 23 m | Show | |
4* Redskins/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE WEEK on Giants + The betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Giants right now. I'm showing close to 70% of the tickets are coming in on the Redskins and anytime you have around 70% or more on one side of an NFL game, you almost always want to be on the other side. While the losses keep piling up, the Giants have shown some flashes of late that they are on the right track. They only lost by 3 points at Atlanta last time out, which was their fourth loss this season by 7 or less. Washington is a decent team, but they got no business being a road favorite against a division rival. The last time the Redskins played on the road they got annihilated by the Saints 43-19. Giants have gone a solid 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS with Eli Manning as the starter at home against Washington. We also have a strong system in play backing a fade of the Redskins. Favorites off an upset win as a division home dog, who have a winning record and are playing a team with a losing record are a mere 5-23 (18%) ATS since 1983. Take New York! |
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10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 76 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks I like the value here with Seattle getting points against the Lions. The Seahawks have quietly won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss being a 2-point defeat to the Rams, where they should have won outright. A lot of people just threw this team under the bus after their 0-2 start and it's got them way undervalued here. Detroit on the other hand is getting way too much respect right now. The Lions have won 3 of 4 and have covered 5 in a row. I'm just not all that impressed with this team and with big division road games on deck against Minnesota and Chicago, I think they have a hard time getting up for this one. Not only do I think Seattle is the better team, but the Seahawks have a massive edge in rest coming off of their bye week. Seattle has covered 12 of their last 16 vs strong offensive teams like the Lions, who averaged 375 or more yards/game. They are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after rushing for 150 or more yards in 2 straight games. Lions are just 7-19-2 in their last 28 off a game where they scored 30 or more and 4-13 ATS off a double-digit road win. Take Seattle! |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 24-18 | Loss | -115 | 131 h 53 m | Show |
5* NFL No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags + I love the value here with the Jaguars as a 3.5-point dog against the Eagles in Sunday's early action from London. Jacksonville is well equipped for the trip overseas, as they do it every year. After a 3rd straight loss and their season in jeopardy, I'm confident Blake Bortles and the Jaguars defense will show up in a big way at Wembley Stadium. Philadelphia is a prime example of just how hard it is to repeat in the NFL. Last year the Eagles could do no wrong, but this year it's been a major struggle. They just keep finding ways to lose games they should win. Last week they blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia tight end, Zach Ertz, said it was "As tough a loss as I've had in my 5-plus years here." Those are always the toughest games to bounce back from. Instead of taking this team for what it is, everyone just assumes they will return to the same form as last year. The books have made a killing against people with that mindset, as the Eagles are 1-5 ATS over their last 6. Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a double-digit loss at home and we find a big time system in play backing them to cover on Sunday. Underdogs in the first half of the season that have lost to the spread by 42 or more points in their last 5 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS oner the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville! |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars OVER 41.5 | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 105 h 8 m | Show | |
4* NFL Early Bird Total NO-BRAINER on Eagles OVER With the talent these two teams have on the defensive side of the ball and the way both offenses are struggling, most will expect a lower-scoring game. I just don't think that's going to be the case. More times than not, these London games end up being a lot higher-scoring than expected and there's no question that has a lot to do with the travel and players just not adjusting to the time change. Jacksonville's offense simply can't be any worse than it has the last two weeks, where they managed just 7-points in losses to the Cowboys and Texans. Blake Bortles has not played well during this stretch. Media and fans are calling for him to be benched for good and I think this entire Jaguars offense will rally around their quarterback and he will find a way to snap out of this funk. As for the Eagles offense, they have been moving the ball, but just have made a lot of careless turnovers and not finished off drives like you would expect. Carson Wentz is too good for this unit to to stay down for long. OVER is 13-4 in the Jaguars last 17 off a game that went UNDER the total and is 12-2 in the Eagles last 14 road games when playing on 6 or less days of rest. Take the OVER! |
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10-27-18 | Lakers v. Spurs UNDER 230 | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs UNDER Great value here with the UNDER Saturday night in San Antonio, as the Spurs will host LeBron James and the Lakers. LA has been in a bunch of high-scoring games so far this season. The OVER is a perfect 5-0 and all 5 have seen at least 235 points. That includes a ridiculous 143-142 Spurs win in LA on 10/22. I think having just played each other will have both teams much better prepared defensively, which should lead to a lot lower-scoring game. I also don't think the pace will be there for the Lakers, who are playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights. I know the Lakers have been allowing teams to shoot extremely well from the field, but the UNDER is 10-1 in LA's last 11 after 3 straight games allowing teams to shoot 50% or better from the field. Take the UNDER! |
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10-27-18 | Magic v. Bucks -8.5 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks - Milwaukee has started out the 2018-19 season 5-0 and I look for them to stay undefeated with a comfortable win at home against the Magic. Each of the last 4 wins for the Bucks have come by at least 9 points, including a 30-point blowout win at Minnesota last night. I just don't think Orlando has the talent to keep this one close. Not a big deal here that Milwaukee is playing on no rest with how easy the win was last night against the Timberwolves. I would be more concerned about the Magic showing up, as they hit the road for the 3rd time in the last week and are just 1-day of rest. Orlando is a mere 4-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons when playing a top tier offensive team like Milwaukee, who are averaging 110 or more points/game. Magic are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 when playing on 1 day of rest, while the Bucks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 25 on 0 days of rest. Take Milwaukee! |
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10-27-18 | Tennessee +8 v. South Carolina | 24-27 | Win | 105 | 44 h 54 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Prime Time ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Tennessee + I really like this spot with the Volunteers getting more than a touchdown against South Carolina. Last time out Tennessee got annihilated by Alabama 58-21, failing to cover as a massive 29-point dog. The thing is, prior to that we saw this team upset Auburn 30-24 on the road in easily the biggest win for first year head coach Jeremy Pruitt. I just think that this team really gained a lot of confidence from that win over Auburn and will be eager to get back on the field after getting annihilated by the Crimson Tide. Keep in mind that Tennessee has played a brutal schedule. Five of their first seven opponents have been West Virginia, Florida, Georgia, Auburn and Alabama. South Carolina is a quality team, but I think they are more in the class of like Auburn than they are the elite SEC teams, such as LSU, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. The Vols aren't just capable of keeping it close enough to cover, I could easily see them winning this game outright. They have covered 30 of their last 45 road games in the month of October and are an impressive 32-16 in their last 48 off a SU loss and 16-5 in their last 21 road games off a conference loss by 10 or more. Take Tennessee! |
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10-27-18 | UNLV v. San Jose State -2.5 | 37-50 | Win | 100 | 56 h 19 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on San Jose State - The simple fact that San Jose State is favored to win this game is really all you need to know to why this is the right side. The Spartans haven't won a game (0-7), yet are laying points to a UNLV team that has a couple of wins under their resume. I just think this is the ideal spot to jump on San Jose State. This team is going to put everything they have into winning this game, as it's arguably their last realistic shot at win this season. They only have 4 more to play and 3 of those are on the road and the lone home game is against Fresno State. UNLV is definitely a team they can not just beat, but win going away against. The Rebels only two wins are against UTEP, who might be the worst FBS program in the country and FCS foe Prairie View. San Jose State has also been close in several games, as 3 of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less and they just lost by a mere 3-points at San Diego State as a 25-point dog. Rebels are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs a team with a losing home record and a mere 4-15 in their last 19 on the road when the team they are playing has won fewer than 25% of their games, losing outright by more than 10 points/game. Take San Jose State! |
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10-27-18 | Kentucky +7.5 v. Missouri | 15-14 | Win | 100 | 55 h 43 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky + This is just too good a price to pass up on the Wildcats. Kentucky has failed to cover their last two games and were a big disappointment to a lot of people in last week's mere 14-7 win over Vanderbilt at home. I think it has them way undervalued here against a Missouri team that I feel lis getting way too much respect. The Tigers come in off an impressive 65-33 win over Memphis, but it just feels like more of the same, where Missouri rolls the teams it's suppose to beat and struggles against the better opponents they play. We saw this team manage just 10 points the previous week against Alabama and this Kentucky defense is no joke. The Wildcats are 12th in the country, giving up just 302 ypg. They are 17th against the run, giving up just 112 ypg and are giving up just 3.4 yards/carry against teams that average 4.9. Everyone thinks of Missouri as this pass-happy team, but they are averaging 42 rush attempts and 200 yards/game on the ground. When they struggle to run the football, the offense struggles to score. Not only do I think Kentucky can slow down the Tigers offense, but this Missouri defense is one that a limited Wildcats offense can have success against. Tigers rank 92nd in the country, giving up 419 ypg. The passing game is the biggest weakness for Kentucky, but they should have success thru the air agains this Missouri secondary, which ranks 122nd, allowing 287.4 ypg. Wildcats not only have the ability to keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Take Kentucky! |
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10-27-18 | Capitals +100 v. Flames | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NHL Money Line SMASH on Capitals Great price and spot to back the defending Stanley Cup Champs. It's been an up and down start to the season for the Capitals, but I'm confident this team will show up against the Flames on Saturday. While Washington is just 4-5 overall, they have only lost back-to-back games once. Last time out they lost 4-1 to Edmonton and that sets up a profitable spot, as they are 26-10 in their last 36 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. They have also won 16 of their last 22 on the road and 6-1 in their last 7 vs a team from the Western Conference. Flames have lost 3 of 4 and are fresh off an ugly 9-1 loss at home to Pittsburgh. Unlike the Capitals, Calgary doesn't exactly bounce back well. The Flames are jut 2-7 in their last 9 off a loss by 3 or more goals. They are also just 1-7 in their last 8 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Washington! |
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10-27-18 | Arizona State v. USC UNDER 54.5 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Arizona State/USC UNDER The books have completely missed the mark with the total they have set for Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between USC and Arizona State. This thing has a low-scoring defensive battle written all over it. Arizona State comes in averaging 27.4 ppg, but that's a misleading number, as they scored 49 against a bad UTSA team at home and 52 against Oregon State. Those are the only two games all season in which they have scored more than 21 points. USC's defense isn't as dominant as it has been in the past, but it should have no problem keeping the Sun Devils in check, especially at home. They key here is the Trojans offense also figures to be limited. Starting quarterback J.T. Daniels is now doubtful to play, as he hasn't cleared the concussion protocol. Backup, Matt Fink is also not available with a rib injury. Red-shirt freshman, Jack Sears, will start if Daniels can't go and he's not attempted a single pass at the collegiate level. USC will be a lot more simple with their offensive attack and try to keep Sears from having to do too much in his first start, which likely means a lot of running the football. UNDER is 7-0 in USC's last 7 after a game where they had 275 or fewer total yards and 21-7-1 in their last 29 home games vs a team with a losing road record. UNDER is also 4-1 in Arizona State's last 5 conference games and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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10-27-18 | Arizona State v. USC -3.5 | 38-35 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on USC - I think we are getting a great price here on USC as a small home favorite against the Sun Devils. The Trojans have a disappointing 4-3 record based on their standards, but it's really not a surprise given how young they are on the offensive side of the ball and the schedule they have had to play. USC's 3 losses have all come on the road against teams who are currently ranked inside the Top 25 in Texas (6), Stanford (24) and Utah (23). They are a perfect 3-0 at home, which includes impressive wins over Colorado and Washington State. This Arizona State team is better than I think people expected in year one under Herm Edwards, but they have lost 4 of their last 5 and the offense continues to struggle to produce at a high enough level to win games against good teams. They only managed 13-points at home last time out in a loss to Stanford and have scored 21 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. The big concern here with USC is that starting quarterback J.T. Daniels is now doubtful to play because of a concussion. I think that's definitely helping the number here, but I don't think the injury really makes a huge impact on the outcome of this game. Jack Sears will start if Daniels can't go and while he's not attempted a pass at the college level, he was highly touted out of high school and has been with the program for two years. I think the offense will be able to score more than enough to win this by at least a touchdown. Take USC! |
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10-27-18 | Iowa v. Penn State -5.5 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State - The Nittany Lions should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown at home against Iowa. Penn State's hopes of making the 4-team playoff and winning the Big Ten East are likely shot, but I don't see this team throwing in the towel the rest of the way. I think their big flat spot was last week at Indiana. They definitely didn't play their best, but still managed to sneak out a 33-28 road win. I think we see a much more focused Nittany Lions team when they host nationally ranked Iowa. Keep in mind they are still looking for their first win at home in Big Ten play, which is definitely a big motivator here. Iowa has looked impressive in their 6-1 start, but the schedule has definitely been favorable for the Hawkeyes. They have only played 2 road games and those were against Minnesota and Indiana. They lost their big step up game at home against Wisconsin and I just don't think the offense will be able to keep pace with Trace McSorely and the Nittany Lions attack. Note that two years ago, Iowa was a mere 6-point dog at Penn State and got annihilated 41-14. I don't think it will be that big of a blowout, but all we need is for them to win by 6. Nittany Lions are 16-1 ATS in their last 17 off a conference win and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a conference win. Take Penn State! |
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10-27-18 | Clemson v. Florida State +17 | 59-10 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 12 m | Show | |
4* Clemson/Florida St ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State + Clemson comes in off that impressive 41-7 win at home over previously undefeated NC State, easily covering as a 18.5-point favorite. I think that result has the Tigers way overvalued here against their rivals from the Atlantic, especially on the road. Florida State has been one of the most disappointing teams of 2018, but there's no question that the Seminoles have some of the best talent in the country. We saw them nearly upset Miami on the road a couple weeks back and I think they are going to give Clemson all they can handle, in what to them has to feel like their Super Bowl. The Tigers have won the last 3, but the largest margin of victory was 17 in last year's matchup. However, that was a much closer game than the final score indicates, as Clemson only led 17-14 in the 4th quarter. Note that the Tigers are just 14-29 ATS when they go into a game off 3 or more consecutive conference wins, as the books only inflate the numbers more off a victory. We also find a strong system in play, as road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who are outgaining opponents by 125+ yards/game are just 17-48 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off back-to-back games where they had 525 or more total yards. Take Florida State! |
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10-26-18 | Wyoming v. Colorado State -2 | Top | 34-21 | Loss | -105 | 86 h 5 m | Show |
5* Wyoming/Colorado St MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado State - Colorado State is going to have no problem at all covering this small spread at home against Wyoming on Friday night. The Cowboys are just 1-6 since that 29-7 win at New Mexico State to open the season back in August. They have lost 4 straight and are off a close home loss to Utah State as a 13-point dog. Covering against the Aggies looks great, but this team has no business being basically a pick'em on the road with that offense. Wyoming is 129th in the country, averaging a mere 15.5 ppg. They are 88th in rushing (150.1 ypg) and 122nd in passing (138.3 ypg). They only scored 13 points against Hawaii and a mere 17 against Wofford. They haven't scored more than 20 in 7 straight games. The defense is good for Wyoming, but I look for them to struggle here on the road against a capable Colorado State offense, especially playing on short rest off that physical game against Utah State. Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team that doesn't have a winning home record. Take Colorado State! |
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10-26-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
5* World Series TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Red Sox/Dodgers UNDER Absolutely love the UNDER in Game 3 of the World Series. After combining for 12 runs in Game 1, the two teams only managed 6 in Game 2 and I think we could see even less in Game 3. The Dodgers will send out Walker Buehler, who has been filthy at home this season. Buehler has made 13 starts at Dodgers Stadium and owns a 1.67 ERA and 0.769 WHIP. He's given up just 15 runs in nearly 81 innings of work. Boston will counter with Rick Porcello and all he did was go 11-3 with a solid 3.95 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in 20 road starts. Thing to keep in mind is most of those were in AL parks, where the DH is used. With the series moving to LA, the DH is not in play and that makes this struggling Dodgers offense that much easier to slow down. It also takes one of the big bats away from Boston, as Porcello has to hit. Another thing to factor in here is we are going from one of the top hitter parks in the big league to one of the top pitching parks. The ball just don't carry well at all at Dodgers stadium at night, so don't expect to see many, if any, home runs with the talent on the mound. UNDER is 10-1 in Buehler's last 11 home starts and 5-0 in Porcello's last 5 interleague starts. Take the UDNER! |
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10-26-18 | Indiana v. Minnesota +3 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota + Love the value here with the Golden Gophers as a home dog against Indiana. I'lll gladly take the points here, but I fully expect Minnesota to win this game outright. We are seeing the Hoosiers get way too much respect from their near upset of Penn State this past Saturday. That was the ultimate get up spot for Indiana at home against a ranked opponent, while I think the Nittany Lions were still reeling a bit from back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, which all but knocked them out of the playoff picture. Indiana head coach Tom Allen said it best, "Just a gut-wrenching loss four our team today. I thought our kids played their hearts out." This is a massive letdown spot for the Hoosiers and they will be going up against a hungry Gophers team that just lost their 4th straight. The thing is, 3 of those came on the road and the other was a home game against a good Iowa team. I like head coach P.J. Fleck and I'm confident he will have Minnesota ready to play at home in prime time. Hoosiers not a great team to back in this spot, as they have failed to cover 7 of their last 8 road games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game where they covered the spread. I wouldn't be shocked at all of the Gophers won this game going away. Take Minnesota! |
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10-26-18 | Warriors v. Knicks UNDER 229.5 | 128-100 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Knicks UNDER Public loves to back the OVER in games involving the Warriors and will be running to get their ticket on the OVER after Golden State just put up 144 points at home against the Wizards, which saw a combined score of 166. Even with that high-scoring game, the UNDER has cashed in 3 of the Warriors 5 games this season. I just don't think we are going to see 230 points between Golden State and New York. The Knicks just don't have the fire-power offensively and are coming off a game against Miami where they scored just 87 points on 36.3% shooting. Everyone focuses on the offense of the Warriors, but this is a great defensive team. Opponents are only shooting 42.5% from the field against them. They are exceptional at defending the 3-pointer, as opponents are only hitting 29.3% from deep. UNDER is 19-9 in the Warriors last 28 after two straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field, 12-3 in their last 15 after scoring 125 or more and 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Take the UNDER! |
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10-26-18 | Lightning v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on under
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-25-18 | Capitals v. Oilers +125 | 1-4 | Win | 125 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NHL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Oilers + Last time out Edmonton more than held their own at home against one of the best teams in the league, as they fell 5-6 in overtime to Pittsburgh. Expect another huge effort here from the Oilers at home against the defending Stanley Cup champs. Washington has a massive target on their back and it's got the best of them early, as they are just 4-4 overall and have lost 4 of their last 7. Edmonton has won 10 of the last 14 meetings at home against the Capitals. While Washington's offense has been lights out of late, scoring 4 or more in each of their last 3, they are just 10-21 in their last 31 on the road after scoring 5 or more in back-to-back games. Look for the Oilers offense to be the ones who put on the show. Take Edmonton! |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 45 | 23-42 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
3* Dolphins/Texans TNF Total DESTROYER on Dolphins/Texans UNDER We have seen a bunch of high-scoring games on Thursday Night Football so far this season and I think the public is catching on and the books have made the total here way too high. Neither of these teams have looked all that great offensively this year. Both are also really hurting with injuries right now on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't think these two offenses are healthy enough to create enough scoring for this to go over the mark. Miami is down starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill and starting Brock Osweiler in his place. They also just lost wide out Albert Wilson, who had been their best playmaker this season. Fellow wide out Kenny Stills isn't exacted to play and DeVante Parker is questionable. I think they struggle to just get first downs going up against J.J. Watt and that Texans defense. Houston has Deshaun Watson and everyone remembers the crazy numbers he put up in that short stretch during his rookie season. Watson hasn't been the same dynamic player this year and the offense for the Texans has been stuck in neutral. They have scored 22 or fewer points in all but one game this season and that was against a depleted Colts defense. I'm not saying Miami will shut them down, but I also expect more of the same struggles from Houston in this one. Take the UNDER! |
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10-25-18 | Celtics v. Thunder OVER 211 | 101-95 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
4* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Thunder OVER Boston has been such a good defense team under Brad Stevens and to no surprise they lead the league in defensive efficiency right out of the gate. The thing is, they have had two really good defensive efforts at home, holding the 76ers to 87 and the Magic to 93, but have allowed 113 (@ Toronto) and 101 (@ New York) in their two road games. Oklahoma City put up 120 points in Westbrook's first game back and this team is going to score a lot of points with him and George both healthy. While the offense should be great for the Thunder, the defense is still a work in progress. They also gave up 131 points and let the Kings shoot 54.9% from the field in Westbrook's first game back. Boston has a more than capable offense and I look for them to have no problem keeping pace offensively with OKC, who is playing at one of the fastest paces in the league, despite Westbrook not playing in their first two games. Take the OVER! |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern OVER 45 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 58 h 51 m | Show | |
3* Thursday Night NCAAF Total ANNIHILATOR on App State/GA Southern OVER I just think there's too much value here on the OVER with the low total in Thursday's huge Sun Belt showdown between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. With the Mountaineers a 10-point favorite, the numbers here suggest the books see a final score of something like 28-17. Only once all season has Appalachian State failed to score at least 35 points. I just think this offense is too good for Georgia Southern to keep in check and could easily see them scoring 30+. I also think the Eagles are going to be able to put together multiple scoring drives and get into the 20s, especially with this game being played on their home field. Note that Georgia Southern comes into this game with the 5th ranked rushing offense in the country at 275.5 ypg. The last 11 times App St has faced a team that averts 200 or more rushing yards, the average score in those games have been 48.3. OVER is also 6-1 in the Eagles last 7 games played in the month of October. Take the OVER! |
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10-25-18 | Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 69 | 14-58 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 42 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on Baylor UNDER Most people are expecting a shootout tonight between Baylor and West Virginia, but that's not going to be the case. West Virginia's offense was exposed in their last game against Iowa State, as they managed just 152 total and 9 first downs. That's the same ISU defense that 37 points and 519 yards to Oklahoma at home. Because Baylor gave up 66 on the road to the Sooners, I think people just assume West Virginia is going to score at will here. I don't think that's the case. The Mountaineers aren't close to Oklahoma's offense. Baylor's defense has been getting better and just held Texas to 23 points on the road in their last game. As for the Bears' offense, it's been potent at times, but for the most part it's struggled against better competition. I mean they only had 26 points at home against Kansas. West Virginia's defense isn't great, but it's a lot stronger at home than it is on the road. The other key here is both teams are coming off a bye, which I think a lot of people overlook when handicapping the total. There's a lot of tape out on both teams and the defenses for both teams are going to be well prepared for this one. Take the UNDER! |
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10-24-18 | Lakers v. Suns +5.5 | 131-113 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Suns No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-24-18 | Canucks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NHL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Canucks/Knights UNDER The books have set the total way too high for tonight's NHL matchup that has Vegas hosting Vancouver. The Golden Knights struggled defensively early on, giving up 4 or more goals in 4 of their first 5 games. They have figured things out and have allowed just 2 goals in their last 3 games combined. Hard to not like that defense to continue to shine against a struggling Canucks offense that has scored 2 or fewer in 3 straight. UNDER is also 13-3 in Vancouver's last 16 road games and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Knights last 4 vs the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! |
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10-24-18 | Hornets v. Bulls +4 | 110-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Bulls + The public will be all over Charlotte here with the Hornets laying a short number against a Bulls team that is 0-3 and just released that starting point guard Kris Dunn is out 4-6 weeks. While that injury hurts, he didn't play in either of the first two, including a 2-point loss at home to the Pistons. They still got a decent 1-2 punch with Zach LaVine and Jabari Parker. LaVine has been outstanding early, as he comes in averaging 32.3 ppg. Chicago is desperate for a win here and I think they get it. Charlotte just lost by 21-points at Toronto and I think they are wearing down from a brutal scheduling start to their season. After opening at home against the Bucks, they are getting ready to play their 4th straight on the road, all in a span of just 6 days. With a home game against these same Bulls on deck, I think it makes it that much harder for the Hornets to get up for this game. It's also worth noting they haven't responded well to blowout losses in the past. They are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 off a loss by more than 10 points. Take Chicago! |
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10-24-18 | Dodgers +135 v. Red Sox | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
4* Dodgers/Red Sox World Series VEGAS INSIDER on Dodgers + I'm confident we are going to be handicapping Friday's Game 3 with this series tied 1-1. The Dodgers let one get away from them in Game 1 and will not make that same mistake in Game 2. Kershaw just didn't show up in Game 1, but this time it will be LA's offense that steals the show. David Price takes the mound for Boston and while he pitched great in his last start of the ALCS against the Astros, his previous two outings, both at home, were not good. In those two starts he gave up 7 runs on 8 hits, failing to complete 5 innings in either outing. Price is just 2-10 against the money line in his last 12 playoff starts, while the Dodgers are 7-1 in Ryu's last 8 starts on normal rest, 4-1 in his last 5 off a loss and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 5 or more runs. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-23-18 | Dodgers +139 v. Red Sox | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
4* Dodgers/Red Sox World Seres VEGAS INSIDER on Dodgers + The public is all over the Red Sox in this series and it's created some exceptional value here on the Dodgers in Game 1. Los Angeles will have their ace, Clayton Kershaw on the mound against Boston's ace Chris Sale. Kershaw was brilliant in Game 5 against the Brewers in the NLCS and I just trust him a lot more than I do Sale, who hasn't pitched great in either of his two starts in the playoffs. Sale lasted just 5 1/3 innings in his start against the Yankees and a mere 4 innings in his only start against the Astros. In those 9 1/3 innings, he walked 6 and you just can't give free passes to this Dodgers lineup, especially with them getting to use the DH while the series is in Boston. Dodgers are 42-12 in Kershaw's last 54 starts against a team with a winning record, 37-14 in his last 51 during Game 1 of a series and 20-8 in his last 28 interleague starts. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-23-18 | Clippers +7 v. Pelicans | 109-116 | Push | 0 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Clippers No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-23-18 | 76ers v. Pistons UNDER 218 | 132-133 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total MASSACRE on Sixers/Pistons UNDER With Ben Simmons doubtful to play for Philadelphia, I don't see these two teams coming close to the total set here by the books. Without Simmons running the point, the 76ers aren't going to get near as many easy looks, as he's one of the best passers in the game. We also saw this Philadelphia team struggle in their only other road game this season, scoring just 87 points at Boston. As for Detroit, they may be without big man Andre Drummond, who is scoring 17 ppg and 6.5 offensive rebounds. It's also worth noting that while the Pistons are averaging 110.5 ppg, the teams they have played are giving up on average 116.7 ppg, so they aren't as potent as you might think. These two teams both pick up the defensive intensity against quality opponents. UNDER is 5-1 in the 76ers last 6 vs a team with a winning record and 7-3 in the Pistons last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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10-23-18 | Coyotes v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
3* NHL Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Coyotes OVER Columbus and Arizona should have no problem eclipsing the total set by the books for tonight's game. Last time out the Coyotes combined for 8 goals in their loss at Winnipeg. I see a similar type of outcome here with the Blue Jackets. Columbus is averaging 3.8 goals/game over their last 5 and during this stretch are giving up 4.2 goals/game, for an average of 8 goals a game. OVER is 28-14 in Arizona's last 42 road games off a road loss by 2 or more goals. OVER is also 8-2 in the Blue Jackets last 10 after a game where they scored 2 or fewer goals. Take the OVER! |
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10-22-18 | Suns +13 v. Warriors | 103-123 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NBA Pacific Division PLAY OF THE WEEK on Suns + Great price and spot to jump on Phoenix as a big double-digit dog against the Warriors. No question we are seeing inflated lines on Golden State to start the year and the Warriors have opened up 0-3 ATS. Not only is Golden State being asked to lay more than they should, but this is also a team that isn't really all that concerned with he regular-season, especially this early on. The only thing that matters to the Warriors is getting that 3-peat. They lost outright last night at Denver, scoring just 98 points. Most will assume they bounce back here against a bad Suns team, but they are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd overall in the last 4 nights. Not to mention Phoenix, along with every other team, is going to give Golden State their very best. Look for the Suns to keep this closer than expected. Note they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Phoenix! |
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10-22-18 | Capitals v. Canucks UNDER 6 | 5-2 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NHL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Capitals UNDER UNDER is the play here in Monday's NHL action between Washington and Vancouver. Books have set a big number on this game due to the fact that the Capitals have gone OVER the total in 5 of their 7 games and combined for at least 6 goals in 6 of those 7. The key here is the Canucks are a good defensive team. Vancouver has allowed 2 or fewer goals in 4 of their last 5 and the UNDER has cashed in each of the last 5 Canucks' games. Last time out they held Boston to just 1 goal in a 2-1 win. UNDER is 7-2 in Vancouver's last 9 after allowing 2 or fewer goals and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU win. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Capitals last 7 after they allowed 5 or more goals in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons UNDER 53 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on under
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-22-18 | Knicks v. Bucks OVER 226 | 113-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks OVER I look for the Bucks and Knicks to have no problem cashing in the OVER in Monday's NBA action. This is not your same old Milwaukee team from previous years. New head coach Mike Budenholzer has put a huge emphasis on the 3-point shot and it's shown. The Bucks attempted just 24.7 3-pointers and made 8.8 per game last year. While it's really early, in their first two games they have averaged 40 attempts and 15.5 made 3-pointers. They have combined for 225 against the Hornets and 119 against the Pacers, two good defensive teams. Now they face the a Knicks defense that has allowed 100+ in all 3 of their games and despite shooting just 42.4% from the field, New York is averaging 110.7 ppg. OVER is 26-9 in the Bucks last 35 off two straight games where they went over the total and 17-3 in their last 20 after two straight with a combined score of 215 or more. We also find a great system in play, as the OVER has gone 44-18 (71%) since 1996 in games where you have a total of 210 or more, where the road team is off a loss by 3-points or less against a team that scored 115 or more in their previous game. Take the OVER! |
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10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 59.5 | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 132 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NFL Bengals/Chiefs SNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Bengals/Chiefs UNDER As difficult as it is to bet the UNDER in a game involving the Chiefs and that high-powered offense, there's simply too much value here on the UNDER at nearly 60 points to pass up. No question the books inflated this number after last week's Chiefs/Pats game combining for 83 points. I just don't think Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense is going to be scoring 30+ points in this game. Cincinnati managed just 21 points and 275 total yards last week against a bad Steelers defense and keep in mind they had just 14 points and 200 total yards before that late TD drive to take a brief 21-20 lead before giving up the game-winning score. As bad as the numbers are for the Chiefs defense, the big key here is how much better they have played at home. While they allowed 27 to the 49ers in their home opener, a lot of that had to do with the game being over at the half with KC up 35-10. There other home game was against the Jags and they shutout Jacksonville for 2+ quarters. The Chiefs are going to score, but I just don't see them scoring at the rated needed to push this over the mark. UNDER is 9-1 in the Bengals last 10 road games after being outgained by 150+ yards last time out and 13-4 in the Chiefs last 17 home games against a bad defense team (allowing 350+ yards/game). Take the UNDER! |
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10-21-18 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 231 | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER While there have been a lot of high-scoring games early on this NBA season, I don't see Sunday's matchup between the Warriors and Nuggets coming anywhere close to the number the books set here. Everyone has Golden State circled on their calendar and are going to give them their best shot. We have already saw that in each of the Warriors first two games, as OKC (without Westbrook) lost by just 8 in Golden State and Utah lost by just 1 at home and should have won that game outright. Denver has started out 2-0 agains the Clippers and Suns, two teams not really expected to be in the playoff hunt in the West. While you don't want to overreact to those two results, I think it says a lot with how well the Nuggets have played defensively. They went on the road and held the Clippers to 98 points and followed it up by limiting the Suns to just 91. They held LA to just 40.25 shooting and PHO to 37.7%. I'm not expect them to keep Golden State under 100, but I think they can keep them closer to 110 and that should be enough to stay under the mark. Take the UNDER! |
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10-21-18 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
5* NFL AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags - This is the ideal spot to jump on Jacksonville. The perception couldn't be much worse on the Jaguars after their last two performances. After getting routed on the road by the Chiefs 30-14 in Week 5, Jacksonville laid an absolute egg in a 40-7 loss at Dallas this past Sunday. The thing is, this is a team that has a hard time playing well on the road, but seem to always show up at home. I expect a completely different Jaguars team when they take the field at home against division rival Houston. I know the Texans come in having won 3 straight after their 0-3 start, but it's nothing to be excited about. The 3 wins came against the likes of the Colts, Cowboys and Bills and all 3 wins came by a touchdown or less and only the game against Indy was on the road. This is still the same team that lost outright at home to that awful Giants team. I just think with the way the Texans offense is struggling to move the ball, they simply won't be able to score enough here against an elite and pissed off Jaguars defense. Jacksonville's Doug Marrone is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a head coach the game following a contest where his team was outgained by 100 or more yards. Jags are also 14-5 in there last 19 off a loss by more than 14 points, while the Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road and 4-12A TS in their last 16 off a win. Take Jacksonville! |
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10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears +3.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Bears + The books are begging the public to take the Patriots here as a short road favorite, but my money is on the Bears to cover the number at home, as I look for Chicago to win this game outright. New England comes in off that impressive 43-40 shootout win at home over the Chiefs and have won 3 straight overall, but those last 3 have all come against soft defensive teams in Miami, Indy and KC. Chicago isn't just a good defensive team, they are one of the best in the NFL. The Bears are 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 19.2 ppg and 10th in total defense, allowing a mere 344 yards/game. We saw the Tom Brady and the Patriots offense really struggle against a physical Jaguars defense on the road earlier this season. With Gronk not going to be available, I think it's going to be really hard on New England to move the ball. While the Bears offense has been limited at times, they are coming off two really strong performances. They had 48 points and nearly 500 total yards of offense at home agains the Bucs and 28 points and 467 yards at Miami last week. Patriots defense has plenty of holes for Trubisky and that Bears offense to exploit, as NE is allowing 28.5 ppg and 447 ypg on the road this season. Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take Chicago! |
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10-20-18 | Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 235.5 | 124-115 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
3* NBA Late Night Total MASSACRE on Rockets/Lakers UNDER I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the total in tonight's highly anticipated showdown between the Rockets and Lakers, which will mark the home debut of LeBron James in LA. The Rockets saw 243 combined points in their opener against the Pelicans, but it was New Orleans not Houston who lit up the scoreboard. The Lakers saw a 147 combined points in their opener against the Blazers, but they had just 119 to Portland's 128. I really liked the effort we got from LA and this is a team that really needs to play hard defensively to have a chance with their lack of 3-point shooting. With this being James' first home game, I think we get a max effort here from both sides on the defensive end, as each wants to avoid the 0-2 start. UNDER is 7-1 in the Rockets last 8 after allowing 125 or more points in their previous game and 8-3 in their last 11 off a loss. UNDER is also 11-1 in Houston's last 12 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER! |
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10-20-18 | Dodgers -107 v. Brewers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
4* Dodgers/Brewers Game 7 VEGAS INSIDER on Dodgers - I'm confident the Dodgers are going to take Game 7 on the road and punch their ticket to the World Series. I just think the fact that LA has been in this type of game several times over the last few seasons in the playoffs is going to pay off big time. Not to mention, I have a lot more confidence in Dodgers starters Walker Buehler than I do Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin. Buehler has a 2.67 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in 25 starts and has really pitched well in each of his two starts against the Brewers this season. Both starts he held Milwaukee to just 5 hits in 7 innings and had 15 total strikeouts. Chacin only had a 3.55 ERA dand 1.297 WHIP in 14 home starts and I think the pressure will get the best of him in this one. Dodgers are 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, 12-2 in their last 14 off a loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after allowing 5+ runs. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-20-18 | Hornets +5 v. Heat | Top | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Hornets + I really like what I have seen from Charlotte to start this new season. The Hornets lost a heartbreaker at home to the Bucks 113-112 on Wednesday, but followed that up with a 120-88 blowout win at Orlando. Charlotte is really pushing the pace this year and are shooting lights out from deep, as they come in averaging 16 made 3-pointers and are shooting 43.4% from long distance. Miami lost to the Magic on the road in their opener Wednesday and squeaked out a win at Washington on Thursday. The Heat are playing short-handed to start the new season, as Wayne Ellington, Justise Winslow, James Johnson and Dion Waiters are all out with injuries. I just don't think Miami will have enough gas in the tank to keep up with Charlotte and all we need is for the Hornets to lose by 4 or less. Hornets are 24-8 in their last 32 road games after playing a game where they led by 15 or more points at the half. Miami has failed to cover 6 of their last 7 at home. Take Charlotte! |
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10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State -1.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 105 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State - Game Day is headed to Pullman for the first time and it's going to be nuts at Martin Stadium Saturday night when the No. 25 Cougars host No. 12 Oregon. I think that atmosphere combined with how great a spot this is for Washington State and how tough a spot this is for the Ducks, really gives the Cougars the upper hand. Washington State has had two full weeks to prepare for this game off a bye, while Oregon has to be running on fumes after their overtime win against No. 7 Washington. I know the Cougars haven't played some of the top teams in the country, but they have an impressive win at home over a really good Utah team and more than held their own on the road against USC in a prime time game. Offensively, both teams can put up point sin a hurry, as both come in averaging over 40 ppg and 480 ypg. Both teams are also strong defensively, though I would definitely give the edge to the Cougars playing at home and having had those two full weeks of practice to prepare for this Ducks' offensive attack. Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games when they come in having won 2 or more games in a row and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Washington State! |
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10-20-18 | Vanderbilt v. Kentucky -11.5 | 7-14 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 60 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky - I think we are getting a great price here on the Wildcats laying less than two touchdowns at home against the Commodores. Vandy was able to put up a decent fight last week at home against Florida, but I think that was more of a result of the Gators not being 100% invested from the start. Definitely a tough spot for Florida off that huge home win over LSU and knowing they had their bye week on deck before the massive showdown with Georgia. The Gators let the Commodores get out to a 21-3 lead and from that point on they were a different team and outscored Vanderbilt 34-6 and wound up outgaining them 576 to 336. I don't see Kentucky sleep-walking into this one. The Wildcats are coming off a bye and my bet is this team can't wait to get back on the field after suffering their first loss of the season at Texas A&M in overtime. I just think that Kentucky's defense will be able to completely shutdown the Commodores offense and Benny Snell and that Wildcats offense will be able to have their way, as Vanderbilt comes in ranked 94th in the country against the run, giving up 183.3 ypg. This one has blowout written all over it. Take Kentucky! |
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10-20-18 | Raptors +1 v. Wizards | 117-113 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Toronto This is too good a price to pass up with the Raptors. All the talk has been about how the Eastern Conference is a race between the 76ers and Celtics after LeBron James went to LA. Toronto is every bit as good as those two with the addition of Khawi Leonard and they showed it last night in their 113-101 win over the Celtics. The fact that the Raptors are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set is definitely keeping this lower than it should be. Washington is a playoff team, but not a real threat to make it out of the east. They lost their home opener to a Miami team playing on no rest and the Heat are missing a bunch of guys to injury. I think Toronto is a team on a mission early and will have no problem winning this one on the road. Raptors are 40-25 ATS in their last 65 off a win by 10 or more and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 when that double-digit win came over a division rival. Take Toronto! |
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10-20-18 | Georgia Southern v. New Mexico State UNDER 55 | 48-31 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 17 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF SUN BELT PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Southern UNDER The books have set the total way too high for this non-conference slate between Georgia Southern and New Mexico State. I think we are seeing a big number here because of how poorly the Aggies defense has played, as they come in giving up 43.7 ppg. The key here is that Georgia Southern is a team that runs the option, which means they are going to put together a lot of long possessions and eat up the clock. I think New Mexico State can at least hold their own defensively against the run at home and last time out for the Eagles they managed just 15 points against a pretty bad Texas State defense. The other thing that I think will keep this thing UNDER the mark, is I don't see New Mexico State's offense being able to do much of anything in this one. Georgia Southern has really played well defensively this year, as they are giving up just 17.3 ppg. The Aggies aren't a good rushing team and their passing attack is going to be greatly limited in this one, as winds are expected to be blowing straight across the field at close to 20 mph. UNDER was 6-0 in New Mexico State's 6 home games over the last 3 seasons in the 2nd half of the season and 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in Georgia Southern's last 7 games and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road. Take the UNDER! |
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10-20-18 | Memphis +10 v. Missouri | 33-65 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Memphis + I think we would be seeing a lot different line here had Memphis not squandered that game against UCF last week. Memphis led 20-7 early and 30-17 at the half, somehow managed to go scoreless over the final 2 periods in a 31-30 loss. That does bring into some concern of a letdown after a crushing loss like that, but I think getting a chance to take on a SEC team will have Memphis 100% ready to go. On the flip side of this, I think Missouri could have a hard time getting up for this game off their game against No. 1 Alabama. Especially with the likes of Kentucky and Florida next up on the schedule. I also think that even if Missouri came to play, they would have a tough time putting away this Memphis team by double-digits. Memphis has a potent offense that comes in averaging 43.9 ppg and 539 ypg. Missouri is giving up 30.5 ppg and 6.2 yards/play. It's also worth noting that Memphis is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 off a conference loss by 3 points or less, while Missouri falls into a horrible situation. Home favorites, who are averaging 31+ ppg are just 60-111 (35%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a loss by 17 or more. Take Memphis! |
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10-20-18 | Minnesota v. Nebraska UNDER 54.5 | 28-53 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 27 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota/Nebraska UNDER Most are going to expect a high-scoring game here, but I think I don't see these two going past the mark set here. This is a must-win game for both sides. Nebraska is still searching for their first win of 2018, while the Golden Gophers are trying to snap a 3-game skid. I know the defensive numbers aren't great for the Cornhuskers, but while they ended up giving up 34 points to Northwestern, the Wildcats only had 14 going into the 4th quarter. Given how much this game means to Nebraska I expect a max effort on the defensive side of the ball and this Minnesota offense is certainly one they can contain. The Gophers are averaging just 19.3 ppg in Big Ten play and that's with them scoring 31 against Iowa. Minnesota's defense has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 3 games, but are much better than that and have simply played some high-powered offenses during this stretch. Another factor here that will get overlooked by most, is the conditions for this game should favor the defenses. It's going to be windy in Linclon with wends blowing anywhere from 15 to 20 mph. That's going to force both teams to run it more than they would like and could also play a role in special teams with field goals being that much tougher. UNDER is also 13-2 in Nebraska's last 15 games as a favorite and 10-2 over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. Take the UNDER! |
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10-20-18 | NC State v. Clemson -17 | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 40 h 40 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Big Favorite PLAY OF THE WEEK Clemson - A lot of people are going to look at this line and want to grab the points with NC State. Hard to blame them, as the Wolfpack come in 5-0 and ranked No. 16 in the country. If history repeats itself like it has in the past, you are going to want to load up on the Tigers. The last 8 times a team has entered a game at 5-0 and been more than 14-point road dog, the home favorite has covered every single time. I know the Wolfpack have a decent quarterback in Ryan Finley, but I just don't think this NC State team is as good as people think. They lost a lot from last year's team and have had a pretty easy schedule to this point with their toughest games being home matchups against Virginia and Boston College. Last time out Clemson annihilated Wake Forest 63-3. I just think this Tigers team is better than what they have shown to this point and that blowout win over the Demon Deacons is the start of something special. Trevor Lawrence is getting more and more comfortable in the offense and this Clemson defense is loaded with NFL talent. They haven't played their best and yet are 8th in the country in total offense (531 ypg) and 3rd in total defense (261.1 ypg). I love elite teams, especially at home, in big time matchups and I think they are going to make quite the statement in a blowout win on Saturday. Bet Clemson! |
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10-20-18 | Wake Forest +10.5 v. Florida State | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest + Love the value here with the Demon Deacons as a double-digit underdog against the Seminoles. I think we are seeing a massive overreaction here with Wake Forest losing 63-3 last time out at home to Clemson and Florida State barely missing out on an upset win at Miami as a 14.5-point dog. Both teams have had extra time to prepare off a bye, but there's only one team I trust to show up and that's Wake Forest. It doesn't matter how bad a year FSU is having, the bottom teams in this league are going to get up to play them. You can almost always count on a team coming out with a big time effort after getting embarrassed the way the Demon Deacons did in that loss to the Tigers. Speaking of Clemson, they are a big reason why I don't trust the Seminoles in this spot. Florida State hosts the Tigers next week and there's not a game outside of maybe Florida in their finale that they want to win more than that game. Not to mention their practice routine has been out of whack with hurricane that hit home. I not only think they don't cover, but I could easily see the Demon Deacons winning this game outright. Take Wake Forest! |
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10-20-18 | Avalanche v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on over
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-19-18 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 218 | 124-123 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
4* NBA Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER The total here has been set way too high for tonight's game between the Warriors and Jazz. I think we are getting the value, due to the fact that Utah gave up 117 points on the road to the Kings, but that was more of the Jazz knowing they didn't need a max effort on the defensive side of the ball to beat the likes of Sacramento. When Rudy Gobert has been in the lineup, this Utah team has been one of the top defensive teams in the league. There's no question we are going to get the very best they have to offer on that side of the ball against the defending champs. While the Warriors are definitely capable of going off, they only managed 108 points at home in their opener against OKC. What we did see from Golden State in their opener was some great defense, as they held the Thunder to just 36.3% shooting. I think we see a very similar outcome to that OKC game, where this comes in around 205-210 points. Take the UNDER! |
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10-19-18 | Thunder +108 v. Clippers | 92-108 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational Money Line MASSACRE on Thunder + I think we are getting a great price here on OKC at basically a pick'em on the road against the Clippers. While the Thunder likely won't have Russell Westbrook for this one, they more than held their own on the road against the Warriors without him in their opener. I look for Oklahoma City to bounce back in a big way against a Clippers team that has little to no shot of making the playoffs out of the west. Los Angeles lost their opener at home on Wednesday to the Nuggets 107-98. They played well early, but when it mattered in the 4th quarter they didn't have anyone they could go to to get a basket. Clippers will be tough defensively and play hard, but simply don't have the talent to compete with the top teams in the conference. Take Oklahoma City! |
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10-19-18 | Air Force v. UNLV UNDER 56.5 | 41-35 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
4* Air Force/UNLV MWC PLAY OF THE WEEK on UNLV UNDER I think the books have completely missed the mark here with the total they have set for Friday's Mountain West matchup between Air Force and UNLV. With how bad these two teams are passing and how much they love to run the football, I just don't see enough possessions for these two get anywhere close to 60 points. The Falcons enter 13th in the country in rushing (248.3 ypg) and just 126th in passing (106.8 ypg). UNLV is 8th in the country in rushing (257.2 ypg) and 124th in passing (123.7 ypg). Needless to say this is going to be one of the more boring games to watch, but boring is great when you are betting the UNDER, especially with a total as high as this one. In order for these two teams to eclipse the total they need 57 points and to get to that mark they would have to average more than two touchdowns a quarter. Unless both teams just have turnover after turnover, I don't see that happening. In fact, I think these two will be lucky to get to 45 points. Take the UNDER! |
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10-19-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +110 | 2-7 | Win | 110 | 33 h 7 m | Show | |
3* Dodgers/Brewers NLCS GAME 6 ANNIHILATOR on Brewers + I look for the Brewers to have no problem evening up the series with the Dodgers at 3-3 and taking this to a Game 7. When it's mattered the most this season, Milwaukee has stepped up to the challenge and delivered. I expect the same thing here in Game 6. Dodgers will send out Wade Miley , who wasn't all that sharp in his earlier start int he series. He only pitched 4 1/3 innings, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits, including a home run. It's been a quiet last couple games for Milwaukee's offense, which has me expecting a big time showing in this one. Wade Miley had the wacky start in Game 5, where he was pulled after walking the first batter, in an attempt to take advantage of LA's lineup that had been set to face the southpaw. Miley was sharp in Game 2 at home, giving up only 2 hits over 5 2/3 scoreless innings. Expect more of the same and for the Brewers bullpen to seal the deal. Take Milwaukee +110! |
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10-19-18 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 117-131 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies - Great spot to jump on the Grizzlies at home off that ugly loss in their season opener on the road to the Pacers. Indiana is one of the top teams in the east and Memphis simply didn't match their intensity. They also shot about as bad as an NBA team can, going just 25 of 84 (29.8%) from the field. I expect the shots to fall at home against a Hawks team that just doesn't have a lot of talent and will certainly struggle on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta gave up 126 points to the Knicks, who are without their best player in Porzingis. This is a much-improved Memphis team, as they have a healthy Mike Conley at the points and one of the top big men in the game in Marc Gasol. The Hawks are going to be one of the worst teams in the NBA and will simply be no match for the Grizzlies on the road. Take Memphis! |
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10-18-18 | Coyotes v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NHL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Coyotes/Blackhawks UNDER There's simply too much value here on the UNDER to pass up with the total set for 6.5. A big reason we are seeing such a high total is the OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the Blackhawks first 5 games, as all 5 have seen at least 7 goals scored. While Chicago has played in a bunch of shootouts, the Coyotes have scored a mere 4 goals in 5 games and 3 of those came in one contest, as they have been shutout 3 times. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Arizona's 5 games and I just think that given the Coyotes limitations on offense, we are going to see these two teams stay well below the mark set by the books. UNDER is 12-3-1 in Chicago's last 16 home games against team with a road winning percentage less than 40% and 4-0 in the Coyotes last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2 | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Broncos/Cardinals TNF NO-BRAINER on Cardinals + I think the books have the wrong team favored on Thursday Night Football. I just think the perception here is that Denver is the better team, despite the fact that they have lost 4 straight. I'm just not buying it. The Broncos defense isn't what it use to be and Case Keenum isn't playing anywhere close to how he played last year with the Vikings. Arizona is a bad team and will likely be picking very early in next year's draft, but this is a game they know they can win and I expect them to show up in a big way at home in prime time. Let's not forget how big an advantage it is to play at home in these Thursday Night games. The home team is 5-1 thru the first 6 Thursday Night games. Josh Rosen has shown some flashes and with how bad the Broncos run defense has been, I look for David Johnson to have a big day and that's only going to open up things for Rosen. I also love that Von Miller has guaranteed a win for Denver, as that's only going to light the fire even more for the Cardinals. Take Arizona! |
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10-18-18 | Bulls v. 76ers OVER 216.5 | 108-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
4* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Sixers OVER This might seem like a big number after watching the 76ers offense manage just 87 points in their opener at Boston, but that Celtics defense is one of the best in the league. That performance isn't going to sit well with Philadelphia and I look for them to come out and lay it on the Bulls offensively at home. The key here is that while Chicago is missing a couple key players, they finally have some nice pieces in place to run the up-tempo offense that Hoiberg wants to play. The Bulls got some nice young talent and their only hope of winning is to outscore the opposition. I look for both teams easily eclipse 100 points and for this one to finish a lot closer to 230 than 220. In the last two seasons the OVER is 26-10 in the Bulls 36 games when they have been listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and the OVER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in this series. Take the OVER! |
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10-17-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -140 | 8-6 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
3* Red Sox/Astros Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Houston - I look for the Astros to have no problem here evening up the series 2-2 with Boston. Houston's offense simply didn't produce in Game 3, but I'm confident they will revert back to the form that saw them score 12 runs over the first two games, as they will be up against Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, who has a 5.19 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Astros. He made two starts against Houston this season and allowed 7 runs on 12 hits (3 HRs) in just 12 innings of work. Astros will counter with Carlie Morton, who they have been being cautious with after he dealt with shoulder problems in the final month of the regular-season. Morton was great when healthy, as he was 15-3 with a 3.18 Era and 1.162 WHIP in 30 starts. I expect him to come out and pitch a gem before handing it over to that dominant bullpen of the Astros. Take Houston! |
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10-17-18 | Bucks -2.5 v. Hornets | 113-112 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bucks - This is too good a price to pass up on Milwaukee as a short road favorite against the Hornets. I got high expectations for this Bucks team now that they have a legit head coach in Mike Budenholzer, who did a really good job of making the Hawks relevant. He did that with a few All-Stars and good supporting cast. I can't wait to see what he does with one of the best players in the game in Giannis Antetokounmpo. One of things Budenholzer did so well with Atlanta was floor-spacing and I expect to see that with the Bucks right away. Not only is that going to give more flow to the offense, but it's going to open up the paint even more for Antetokoumpo to attack. Charlotte is a legit playoff threat in the east, but that's largely because of how weak the conference is. They might keep it close early with the game at home, but look for the Bucks to pull away in the 2nd half and cover this one rather easily. Take Milwaukee! |
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10-16-18 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 224 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NBA Opening Night Total NO-BRAINER on Thunder/Warriors UNDER The public loves to bet the OVER in Warriors' games and with this being a prime time game that's going to get a ton of action, I think the books have inflated the number quite a bit, creating some big time value on the UNDER. Note that the UNDER has been a really strong play in this series. All 4 meetings last year went UNDER the posted total set by the books and two of the 4 failed to reach 200 combined points. Going back even further, the UNDER has cashed in 13 of the last 16 meetings, including a dominant 9-1 mark when they meet up at Golden State. UNDER is also 33-18 in OKC's last 51 as an underdog and we could see this thing stay well below the mark if Russell Westbrook doesn't suit up for the Thunder. Take the UNDER! |
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10-16-18 | 76ers +5.5 v. Celtics | 87-105 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on 76ers
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-16-18 | Stars v. Devils -125 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NHL Money Line VEGAS INSIDER on Devils - New Jersey is off to another strong start. The Devils have won each of their first 3 games, outscoring the opposition 14-4. Last year they were 6-1 in their first 7 games and 9-2 over their first 11. I look for them to improve to 4-0 in 2018 with a comfortable win at home over the Stars. Dallas started out 3-1, but really benefited from playing all 4 of those games at home. They lost 4-1 at Ottawa in their first road test last time out and I think they struggle to score enough here to keep this close. Stars are a mere 13-27 in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 years and 9-28 in their last 37 road games when coming in having lost 2 of their last 3. Devils are 31-15 in their last 48 off a home game and 10-3 off a home win by 1. Take New Jersey! |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -102 | 34 h 42 m | Show | |
4* 49ers/Packers MNF Total NO-BRAINER on 49ers/Packers UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER on Monday Night Football, as I feel we are seeing an inflated number here with SF having gone OVER the total in 4 straight and the Packers having gone OVER the total in 4 of their first 5 games. These two teams are a lot better defensively than people realize. San Francisco is 12th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 348 ypg. The Packers are 4th, allowing a mere 314 ypg. Both teams rank in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass. Both could also be missing several key players on the offensive side of the ball. Already down starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers will also be without their best back in Matt Breida. They also have 3 starters on the offensive line questionable, as well as wide out Marquise Goodwin. Green Bay may be without two of their top wide outs in Randall Cobb and Jaire Alexander and Aaron Rodgers is playing at less than 100% after tweaking that left knee injury he suffered in Week 1 last week against the Lions. The game will also be played in less than ideal scoring conditions, as temps are expected to be just barely above freezing with a 10 mph wind. UNDER is also 26-3 (90%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (49ers) giving up 27+ ppg, who has allowed 25 or more in each of their last 4 games. Take the UNDER! |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59 | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 140 h 13 m | Show |
5* Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pats/Chiefs OVER You don't see a ton of NFL totals approaching 60 points, but I got no problem here backing the OVER when the Chiefs visit the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. I honestly don't know that the books can set the total high enough for the offense fireworks that will be on display. While there's a few out there that aren't completely sold on Mahomes, this kid is the real deal. He had his worst game of the season last week against the Jaguars, failing to throw a single TD pass and throwing his first two interceptions of the season. He still threw for 313 yards and rushed for a score in the Chiefs convincing win over Jacksonville. Not a bad day against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Andy Reid's offenses have given the Patriots troubles in recent meetings with Alex Smith under center. I just don't think New England has the talent to contain Mahomes and all those weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Belichick loves to take away a teams strength or top playmaker, but that's hard to do with this Chiefs team, as they got top not skill players all over the field and Mahomes is not shy about spreading the ball around. He's thrown 14 touchdown passes to 9 different receivers. As for the Patriots offense, they are going to have try and keep pace and they should be able to do just that against a bad KC defense. While the Chiefs held the Jaguars to 14 points, they gave up over 500 yards of offense. They simply took advantage of a poor game by Jacksonville stater Blake Bortles. Brady isn't going to make those same mistakes. I think both teams will score at least 30 points, which would be more than enough to cash a winning ticket here. OVER is also 73-37 (66%) since 1983 when you have an undefeated road team off a home win by 10 or more. Take the OVER! |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 53 h 49 m | Show | |
4* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Broncos + The Rams are once again being way overvalued by the books on the road. Last week Los Angeles was a 7-point road favorite at Seattle and were fortunate to leave with a 33-31 win, as they went into the 4th quarter trailing 31-24. Given all the hype around this team, they are going to keep getting max efforts from their opponents, as everyone wants to be the one to give them that first loss. Denver not only wants to be the Rams, but they desperately need a win after losing 3 straight. The Broncos should have beat the Chiefs at home a few weeks back. It took some ridiculous play by Mahomes in the 4th quarter for KC to escape with a win. I think Denver has a really good shot here of not just covering, but winning this game outright. The Rams are use to the nice weather in LA and it could be a challenge for them in this one, as temps are expected to be well below freezing at kickoff. Broncos are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against elite teams like the Rams, who are outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game and have won these contests by almost 10 points/game (27.8 - 18.4). Take Denver! |
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10-14-18 | Chargers v. Browns +1 | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Browns + After going 0-16 last year, the Browns came into this season way undervalued and that's evident by the fact that they are sitting at 4-1 ATS through their first 5 games. I love how this team bounced back from that crushing loss at Oakland with a 12-9 win over division rival Baltimore last week. This team is still getting no respect, as they are basically a pick'em at home against a Chargers team that hasn't been all that impressive. LA is 3-2, but their 3 wins have come against the Bills, 49ers (without Garoppolo) and Raiders. In their two big step up games against the Chiefs and Rams, they lost by double-digits. It seems like every year the Chargers are hit hard with the injury bug and 2018 has been no different. The defense is still without not just their best player, but one of the elite defense players in the game in Joey Bosa. Linebackers Jatavis Brown and Kyzir White are both expected to miss this game with injuries. I look for Baker Mayfield and that rejuvenated Browns offense to have a lot of success in this one, while the underrated Cleveland defense makes life miserable for Rivers and the Chargers offense. LA won and covered in a 26-10 home win over the Raiders last week. That's worth noting, as the Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win by more than 14 points and 0-4 in their last 4 off a game where they covered the spread. Take Los Angels! |
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10-13-18 | Ole Miss -6 v. Arkansas | 37-33 | Loss | -104 | 101 h 19 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss - I got no problem laying less than a touchdown with Ole Miss on the road against Arkansas. The Razorbacks have gotten off to an awful start in the first year under Chad Morris. They won their opener against Eastern Illinois and have lost 5 straight since. That includes a loss 7-point loss at Colorado St as a 14-point favorite, a 27-point loss at home to North Texas as a 5-point favorite and 34-3 defeat to an Auburn team that has struggled. They have covered their last 2 against Texas A&M and Alabama, but were fortunate to do so. They were a 19-point dog to the Aggies and trailed 17-0 before Texas A&M took their foot off the gas. Last week they were a 34.5-point dog to Alabama and lost by 34 thanks to a late touchdown with just 13 seconds on the clock. It's been bad on both sides of the ball, as the Razorbacks own the 103rd ranked offense (358.1 ypg) and are 91st in rushing and 92nd in passing. They have the 110th ranked pass defense, giving up 271.3 ypg. Ole Miss is simply too talented. The Rebels only two losses are against two of the best teams in the conference in LSU and Alabama. They have taken care of everyone else, including a 20-point win over what looks to be a good Texas Tech team. I mentioned how bad Arkansas was against the pass. Ole Miss has the 5th best passing attack in the country at 347.5 ypg. Look for the Rebels to score at will and while their defense is bad, it can make enough stops to pull away. Take Ole Miss! |
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10-13-18 | Missouri +28.5 v. Alabama | 10-39 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Missouri + After starting out the year a perfect 3-0 ATS, Alabama has failed to cover 3 straight. The thing is they have been so close to covering the last 3, the public isn't backing down and we continue to get unbelievable value fading the Crimson Tide. There's no question that Alabama will win this game at home, but I think it's asking a lot for them to win by more than 4 touchdowns against this Missouri team. The Tigers have the 9th ranked offense in the country, averaging 530 ypg. The have the 15th ranked passing attack (318.4 ypg) behind future NFL signal caller Drew Lock. You have to be able to threaten Alabama vertically to have any success against them, as they are just too strong up front to ground and pound. The high-powered passing attack is also what you want for the backdoor cover. Note the Crimson Tide have made a habit of letting teams score late. The other big key here is we have already seen Missouri hang with Georgia, only losing by 14 points. They also were outgained by just 52 yards and had a 26 to 18 edge in first downs over the Bulldogs. Tigers are also 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games against a team with a winning home record and have covered 10 of their last 14 overall. Crimson Tide are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last conference games. Take Missouri! |
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10-13-18 | Dodgers -110 v. Brewers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
5* Dodgers/Brewers NLDS (G2) PLAY OF THE YEAR on Dodgers - I'm confident the Dodgers will even up the series with a win in Game 2. I think the 4 runs that LA was able to push across in the final 2 innings was a big confidence builder for that offense and I expect them to get off to a strong start here against Milwaukee's Wade Miley. The Brewers went to their bullpen early and their go-to reliever, Josh Hader, threw 3 innings last night. Dodgers will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who was sensational in his start against Atlanta in the NLDS. Ryu allowed just 4 hits and struck out 8 in 7 shutout innings. Ryu should be in great form having not pitched since last Oct. 4. There's also a great system in play, Road teams who have an OBP of .350 or better in their last 20 games and starting a pitcher on 7 or more days of rest are 45-17 (73%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-13-18 | Michigan State +14 v. Penn State | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State + Penn State is getting way too much respect here at home against a good Michigan State team. The Spartans are 3-2 with a couple of close losses. They have to feel like they should be 5-0 and with them off that ugly loss at home to Northwestern, they are going to be 100% locked in for this one. I don't know that the same can be said for the Nittany Lions. Even off a bye week, I think we could see Penn State a bit flat off that devastating loss to Ohio State. That was a game they felt they had to win if they wanted to win the Big Ten East and make the playoffs. If they are still down from that lost, they won't just not cover, but they might lose the game outright. It's a very similar spot to last year. Penn State was 7-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country before losing to the Buckeyes. The very next week they lost 27-24 at Michigan State. Spartans have won 3 of 4 over the Nittany Lions since James Franklin arrived at State College. I also like the matchup here. Penn State has a great quarterback in Trace McSorley, but that offense is built on the ground game. Only once all season have the Nittany Lions thrown for more than 300 yards and that was against Kent State. They will likely have no choice but to throw it in this one, as the Spartans lead the nation in run defense, giving up just 33.8 ypg. Not a single team has rushed for more than 63 yards against them. Last week they held Northwestern to 8-yards on 20 attempts. That run defense was also a big part of their win last year over Penn State, as they held Saquon Barkley and the Nittany Lions to just 48 yards on 27 attempts. Hard to pass up on a double-digit dog that has a realistic shot of winning the game outright. Plus, Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 off a loss and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games off a home loss. Take Michigan State! |
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10-13-18 | Texas A&M v. South Carolina +2.5 | 26-23 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on South Carolina + Coming off a win at home over No. 13 Kentucky, I think we are seeing the Aggies get a little too much love on the road against a good South Carolina team. The Gamecocks rallied to beat Missouri 37-35 at home last week, but are still searching for that signature win. It's actually a very similar spot to what we saw last week with Texas A&M. Except we get even more motivation here from South Carolina as a home dog. This is also a good Gamecocks team. There only two losses were at home to Georgia and on the road to Kentucky. Texas A&M has played just one road game all season and that was at Alabama. While they covered the spread, it was no contest, as the Crimson Tide had a 31-13 lead at the half and 45-16 advantage going into the 4th quarter. I also like the matchup. Aggies defense is outstanding against the run, but are a mere 97th in the country vs the pass (244.8 ypg). Gamecocks have the 48th ranked passing offense (255.8 ypg). As for the defense, Muschamp knows Fisher's schemes well from when both were coordinators under Saban at LSU. They also get the benefit of feeding off the home crowd. I'll take the points but I expect the home team to win outright. Take South Carolina! |
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10-13-18 | Washington -3 v. Oregon | 27-30 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington - I just don't see Washington losing to the Ducks, making this an easy play for me with the Huskies at such a low price. I think the fact that Oregon should have beat Stanford at home a couple weeks back (blew a 24-7 halftime lead) and are off a bye, is what's keeping this number lower than it should be. By no means do I think the Ducks aren't any good, I just believe that Washington is a step above the entire Pac-12 conference. While they only beat Arizona St by 7, they were without a question the better team. They kept the Sun Devils in it with short fields and were still up 14 with less than 3 minutes to play. Also, don't be fooled by the mere 7-point win at UCLA. Washington simply took their foot off the gas after building a 24-7 halftime lead, which says a lot about how much they are looking forward to this game. Justin Herbert might be the best quarterback not everyone knows about, but he's going to be up against an elite Huskies defense that specializes in defending the pass (17th, 174.7 ypg). It's going to be a lot easier on Washington quarterback Jake Browning, as he faces an Oregon secondary that ranks 89th vs the pass (238.2 ypg) and haven't exactly played a lot of great teams. They opened with Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose St, all at home. With the offense figuring to be able to move the ball and a defense that is built to play well on the road, I just don't see the Ducks having enough in them to keep this within a touchdown. Take Washington! |
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10-13-18 | Oilers v. Rangers +109 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 29 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Rangers
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-12-18 | Hamilton -7.5 v. Toronto | 34-20 | Win | 105 | 60 h 6 m | Show | |
4* Hamilton/Toronto CFL GAME OF THE WEEK on Hamilton - I got no problem laying this number on the road with the Tiger-Cats on the road against the Argonauts in Friday's CFL action. Hamilton snapped a short two-game skid with a 40-10 blowout win over British Columbia at home in their last contest should have no problem beating Toronto by double-digits. The Argonauts have lost 6 straight and are just 2-4 ATS during this stretch. Two of those losses came at the hands of Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats won by 14 at home as a 9.5-point favorite and just 5 days later won by 11 as a 5-point dog at Toronto. No reason to expect anything different this time around, as there's just nothing for the Argonauts to play for at this point in the season. Tiger-Cats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games after the 1st month of the season, while Toronto is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs strong offensive teams that are averaging 7.2 or more yards/play after 9+ games and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games vs good defensive teams that are allowing 340 or less yards/game. Take Hamilton! |
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10-12-18 | South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
5* S. Florida/Tulsa AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa + The Golden Hurricane come into this game at 1-4 and have lost 4 straight, but are a much better team than their record would suggest. Tulsa has played an absolutely brutal schedule early, as 3 of their first 5 games have come on the road against Texas, Temple and Houston. They covered last week as a 17-point dog at Houston, but could have easily won that game outright. The Golden Hurricane has a 26-17 lead in the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control. In their 14-point loss to Temple the week before, they outgained the Owls 403 to 300 and had a 32 to 16 edge in first downs. They also lost by just 7 on the road against a very good Texas team. I'll absolutely take a shot here with Tulsa catching over a touchdown at home against what I think is a very overrated South Florida team. The Bulls are 5-0 and ranked No. 23 in the country, but have played a very easy schedule with their two toughest games coming against Power 5 bottom feeders Georgia Tech and Illinois. If the Golden Hurricane can just simply cut down on their mistakes, they are going to have a great shot here of winning this game outright. Tulsa has 16 turnovers in 5 games and simply can't continue to get that unlucky with turnovers going forward. Golden Hurricane are a dominant 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a game where they allowed 40+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 vs a team with a winning record. USF on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take Tulsa! |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants +3 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* Eagles/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants + The Eagles continue to get way too much respect from the books after last year's Super Bowl win. Philadelphia was expected to defend their title, but they haven't even looked like a playoff team to this point. The Eagles are 2-3 with their only wins at home against the Falcons and Colts and they could have easily lost both of those games, as both Atlanta and Indy had the ball deep in Eagles territory with a chance to take the lead late. The two biggest problems for Philadelphia have been the injuries that have piled up on the offensive side of the ball and the defense not playing anywhere close to as well as it did a season ago. Carson Wentz is just fine, but the supporting cast is really limited with the likes of Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles and Mike Wallace all sidelined. The Giants are sitting at 1-4 and have been a big disappointment, but they are coming off their best performance of the season in a mere 2-point loss at Carolina. The offense put up 31 points on a good Panthers defense, who were off a bye and I think they finally got something going on that side of the ball. I look for the G-men to deliver in what feels like a must-win game. Take New York! |
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10-11-18 | Georgia Southern v. Texas State +18 | 15-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas State + There's no question that Georgia Southern is greatly improved over the team that went just 2-10 last year, but they simply overvalued here on the road against the Bobcats. The inflated line comes from the fact that the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS, while Texas State has only covered one game in their first 5. Georgia Southern runs the option offense and while they have put up some big numbers, when you run the football as much as they do, it really limits the number of possessions. That makes the big number we are getting that much more valuable. As is the case with a lot of option teams, they aren't great at defending the pass and I look for Texas State to make enough big plays through the air to keep this one respectable. Playing at home is also a huge advantage here for the Bobcats, as it's really tough to play on short rest away from home. Georgia Southern has also struggled on the road against bad teams, as they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Texas State! |
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10-11-18 | Avalanche -114 v. Sabres | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Avalanche
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-10-18 | Coyotes +145 v. Ducks | 3-2 | Win | 145 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Coyotes
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State -9 v. Arkansas State | 35-9 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
3* App St/Ark St Sun Belt PLAY OF THE WEEK on App State - I got no problem laying the big number here with the Mountaineers on the road. A lot of people will be drawn to Arkansas State as big home dog in this weekday matchup. The Red Wolves were picked to win the Sun Belt West by a lot of experts and senior quarterback Justice Hansen was a big reason why. The problem here is that Hansen is going to be asked to do too much against a top notch Appalachian State defense, as I just don't see the Red Wolves stop unit being able to slow down this high-powered Mountaineers attack. App State put up 38 points on Penn State in their opener and have scored no fewer than 45 in 3 straight wins. They are scoring almost 10 ppg more than what their opponents are giving up and will be facing a Red Wolves defense that is allowing 29.2 ppg. Look for the Mountaineers to be able to do whatever they want offensively, as they should be in great down and distances all game. App State has rushed for 780 yards in their last 2 games and are averaging 269 ypg and 6.5 yards/carry. Red Wolves are giving up 245 ypg and allowing 5.7 yards/carry against the run. Take Appalachian State! |
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10-09-18 | Sharks v. Flyers -105 | 8-2 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Flyers
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-08-18 | Redskins +6.5 v. Saints | 19-43 | Loss | -105 | 107 h 51 m | Show | |
4* Redskins/Saints MNF NO-BRAINER on Redskins + The Saints are way over-valued here at home agains the Redskins on Monday Night Football. With how much the public loves to bet MNF and the Saints, no surprise to see New Orleans over-priced at home. I know the Saints are sitting at 3-1, but they could easily be 1-3. They should have lost at home to the Browns in Week 2 and were fortunate to leave Atlanta with a 43-37 overtime win in Week 3. While New Orleans is getting way too much love, the Redskins are flying under the radar right now. Washington comes in at 2-1 in the first year with Alex Smith at quarterback. Smith has changed the dynamic of the offense, as it's much more balanced and less turnover-proned. What really stands out to me is just how good this Redskins defense is playing to start the new season. Washington ranks 7th against the run and 3rd against the pass, as they come in allowing just 278 yards/game. We saw a good Cleveland defense going into New Orleans and really shutdown Brees and that Saints high-powered attack and I expect the Saints to struggle here. Not only will they have a hard time moving the ball against this Redskins defense, but Smith and that Washington offense are going to look for long drives that eat up clock and keep Brees on the sidelines. Something they should be able to do with how poorly the Saints defense has played. The other big key here that I think is getting completely overlooked, is the fact that Washington is coming off a bye. Bye weeks are huge in the NFL and I think with the extra time to prepare and get guys healthy, the Redskins could win this one outright. Take Washington! |
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10-08-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 16-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
4* Red Sox/Yankees Game 3 Total DESTROYER on Yankees UNDER Big time value here with the UNDER in Game 3 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Red Sox. No question Yankee Stadium is more of a hitters park, but that will be negated some with temps expect in the low 60's and the win blowing in from right center at close to 10 mph. I also really like the pitching matchup in this one. Boston will send out Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 0.69 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Eovaldi faced New York 3 times during the regular-season and didn't give up an earned run win 16 innings and allowed just 6 hits. The Yankees will counter with ace Luis Severino, who put last year's postseason struggles behind him with a dominant effort in the Wild Card game against the A's, giving up just 1 run in 7 innings. Severino now has a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 2.62 ERA in 16 home starts. He was also dominant in his last start against Boston, holding the Red Sox to just 1 run on 6 hits in 7 innings. Take the UNDER! |
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10-08-18 | Edmonton v. Saskatchewan -3 | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Saskatchewan
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-08-18 | Sharks v. Islanders +157 | 0-4 | Win | 157 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Islanders
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |