Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-05-15 | Virginia +19.5 v. UCLA | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Play on: 10* Virginia +19-1/2 over UCLA Just like our other 10* today we are searching for value in the talent differentials to see how much of the spread booked is warranted. Here is another situation where you will pay for the national publicity affored the chalk. The Bruins have 17 starters back, but are replacing QB Hundley (3,155...QBR:152.7) with inexperience. Yes, having 10 offensive starters is a solid basis for beginnig the season, especially considering the Bruins went 10-3 SU, and show off a game #1 win in 2014 over this same Virginia (-20) 28-20 on the road. UCLA laid DD last season vs. Virginia, Memphis, Utah and Colorado...0-4 ATS. Now they show w/o the trigger, Hundley. The Bruins were just 2-4 ATS at home, and 8-8 ATS in non-conference, 31-35 ATS L5 seasons overall (2-3 ATS game #1 home). Virginia has 10 starters with QB Johns taking over for QB Lambert who transfered to Georgia...Johns had a higher efficiency rating than the latter. The projected starting group on both sides of the ball has, at this writing, 18 upper class experienced players. The critical improvement to enhance that 5-7 record from last season, is the ability of the running game (3.7) to deplete time, control tempo during given periords of the game. For sure HC London (23-38) is under HUGE HEAT and needs a winning season and a few surprising upsets to enhance his star. He is 11-6 as an UNDERDOG...TAKE THE POINTS! |
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09-05-15 | Kent State +13 v. Illinois | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
3* KENT STATE+ over Illinois Since game was PPD. and Brad Diamond Sports had additional research time, we have moved this to a system 3* APPRECIATION rating, the game was a FREE SELECTION Friday...Good Luck! |
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09-04-15 | Fordham v. Army -3.5 | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
4* ARMY -3-1/2 over Fordham Don't get to involved with FCS types, but a good unit in Patriot League entry Fordham. HC Moorhead in his 4th year brings a 29-10 unit, 14-4 unit league wide into battle. Going 11-3 SU is remarkable, but this team was gutted from last year losing quality players on both offense and defense. Because of the road site, expect the Rams to try and control tempo with big time RB Chase Edmonds. The reason, high flying QB Nebrich and his wide outs have graduated. We hear a QB transfer from Marshall will get the call tonight. That's never good news in initial stint in hostile territory. The defense lost four really solid plays and the PK is gone too. Army shows off a 4-8 season, but 2nd year coach Jeff Monken is under some heat considering the Cadets have not had a winning season since 2010. He does have 10 starters returning, and new QB Adam Bradshaw appears to be a very talented and athletic signal-caller that will run the option attack. If Army is to win and cover here they will need to improve on their points allowed (32.9) stat from 2014. What will the Cadets defense is their familarity with the new 3-4 defense that was installed last season. Where Army has a solid edge is on special teams with their coverability and speed. Last year Army (+3-1/2) defeated Fordham 42-31 at home prior to the Navy game...so, this time around there will be no other focus. HUGE GAME FOR ARMY! |
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09-04-15 | Colorado v. Hawaii +9 | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 1186 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Hawaii+ over Colorado No doubt differential talent compilation favoring Buffs, but Vegas shows respect withholding DD knowing public may ride that way , no matter. Although Buffs have almost everyone back, we note that was from a 2-10 unit, losing by a -70 on the road in 2014. Make no mistake we respect Buffs who have a rough go every week, and show loaded with "O" talent. But playing in PARADISE always difficult in week #1. If Hawaii is using USC gun Wittek at the trigger, this situation could be outright upset. Hawai is 9-4 ATS in non-conference....TAKE! |
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09-03-15 | South Carolina -2.5 v. North Carolina | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 43 m | Show | |
KNEE-JERK GAME OF THE WEEK 5* SOUTH CAROLINA -2-1/2 over North Carolina @ 6:00 Eastern Okay, the houses around Columbia are starting to shake! First off, the Gamecocks have now lost twice to Kentucky in the last five years. Second the ‘Ol Ball Coach is aging after an unsatisfactory 7-6 season, but that was partly due to a rough SEC schedule that illustrated heart breaking close losses to the aforementioned Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee and Auburn. In addition, SC did so with the talented Dylan Thompson (3,564) at quarterback who had 26 touchdowns vs. 11 interceptions…He is gone! So, Spurrier will lead with Connor Mitch who has no real game experience…tough nut for sure, in an opener at a neutral site against a unit (UNC) in 17-point revenge from a 27-10 loss in 2013. Opposing Tar Heels show with 17 starters returning, 10 on offense. QB Williams (3,068) again runs the quicksilver group that averaged 33.2 points per game. Just remember the UNC defense shadowed 39.0 points per outing…#56 nationally (390). UNC finished 6-7 and LOST to Rutgers 40-21 in the Quick Lane Bowl. The last time UNC played an SEC unit was in 2010 losing 30-24 to LSU. For me the fundamental edge is the defensive side of the ball for SC which should be faster and more improved this time around, while showing with the #11 rating in total defense (315.5) from 2014, 4.65 yards per play. Remember too, Spurrier is most dangerous when flying under the radar…the line opened SC -3, was quickly taken down to -2-1/2. The ‘Ol Ball Coach is normally not a play laying money on the road, but the ‘Cocks are 13-7 ATS vs. non-conference types. And, 11-3-1 ATS -3 or under. Further, HC Larry Fedora of North Carolina in his 4th year is just 16-18-1 ATS overall and 2-5-1 ATS in non-conference. UNC is 6-4 SU in game #1, while South Carolina is 9-1 SU. If QB Mitch stays away from early turnovers fully expect the GAMECOCKS to survive…27-22. |
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09-03-15 | Florida International +13 v. Central Florida | 15-14 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
5* Florida International +13 over Central Florida This is our late move from the line standpoint as the number continues to deflate (excuse me Tom) on the Strip. This actually opened around 17 in August. The Golden Panthers bring back 15 starters from a 4-8 SU season, a major change over the 1-11 card in 2013. FIU even showed improvement ATS going 8-4 to the number after a 4-8 season. They lost four games by three points or less and seem to be on the up-tick recruiting. How the Panthers win this SU is by controlling the tempo with their developing running attack that has shown a better OL this spring. The defense improved by 12 points per game last season and with 8 RS should be testy here. Central Florida is not to be taken lightly, however, they have just 9 RS and face a big timer at Stanford on the 12th. Normally, would not go against the savvy George O'Leary but, his club could be taking this pesky visitor to lightly..TAKE THE POINTS! |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots OVER 47.5 | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 166 h 44 m | Show | |
Analysis later this week. |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots | 24-28 | Loss | -107 | 72 h 7 m | Show | |
5* Seattle+1*** (102) over New England @ 6:30 Eastern ….A.K.A “Deflate Gate” Once the Super Line hit the sportsbooks the money seemed to be going to the side of the Patriots. However, our good friend in Las Vegas mentioned the High Rollers that he does business with were all over the Seahawks. Just keep that in mind for now. Going back to the recent Conference Championship games, we note the Patriots destroyed Indianapolis and shutdown QB Luck to boot 45-7. NE finished on a 1-3 ATS run after covering vs. the Colts. Seattle defeated Green Bay 28-22 in a valued performance by QB Rodgers. Seattle did not cover, but finished with a super 7-of-8 ATS mark. It’s Thursday as we write our game analysis. We find out the fire alarm system in the hotel has gone off twice, maybe three times, since the Patriots arrived in Vegas. Other distractions include QB Tom Brady being sick. No matter the Patriots are 14-4 SU, while the Seahawks bring the same record in play. Seattle is the 12th team to repeat as a Super Bowl entrant. The Patriots won back-to-back Super Bowls in 2004-2005. New England is 0-4 ATS in their last four Super Bowl encounters, and 4-11 ATS in playoff games. In addition, NE is 1-9 ATS on grass. One critical stat fact is Brady’s incomparable 20 playoff wins but, he is only 10-8 SU since those Super Bowl wins. My favorite player in the NFL is QB Russell Wilson who brings energy that can change the tempo and the result of a football game every time out with his running abilities. He is a PERFECT 10-0 SU against other quarterbacks who have won the SUPER BOWL. On offense the Pats crushed Indy by running the football creating huge gaps for Brady to throw into. Believe this will not be the case on Sunday as Seattle has held the opposition to an average of 87 yards a game. This will force Brady to look more down the field into the solid Seattle defensive secondary. Key for the Seahawks is their vaunted rushing attack (Lynch) which averages 170 yards a game. Seattle comes in +10 in turnover margin, New England +15. We look for a huge running day by RB Lynch this is the Seahawks way to control the tempo keeping Brady on the sideline. Remember the group from New England is averaging 30 points per game, so Seattle can’t afford to trade points and expect to win. The Seahawks are 10-3 ATS on grass. The UNDERDOG in the Super Bowl is 10-3 ATS. Just as important, we know Seattle travels well, so expect the crowd to be supporting Seattle loudly. ***Line based on the Westgate sportsbook at the time of this analysis..Good Luck. |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. New England Patriots | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 25 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis +7 nothing less....over New England Most will look at this set up and assume a Patriots win and cover, considering the Colts will be playing back-to-back weeks on the road. We'll give the public domain the head nod as they back the overall more talented team being at home. However, we note inside this series the UNDERDOG has been the play running at 14-5-2 ATS. In addition, our key game changer is the fact QB Luck is not a standstill signal-caller, he will roll out, option and boot leg. This will cause problems for the NE defense that was not an issue last week vs. Flacco...Believe this factoid insures the Colts and Patriots will be playing a dead even game until the final buzzer. Now add in the Patriots spread record in Conference Championship games of 0-5 ATS and you have a MAJOR ANSWER to the right side of this contest. Our AFC GAME OF THE YEAR is Indianapolis over New England. |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | 22-28 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 16 m | Show | |
111815 (302) 4* Seattle -7 not higher…over Green Bay @ 3:05 Eastern We used the Seahawks in these pages last weekend, but they needed a long INT for a touchdown to grab the cash in the 4th quarter. Clearly, Carolina proved how wrong the national talking heads were about their abilities on the playing field. But, just like last week Seattle will need to bring it defensively again to defend their Super Bowl crown in the upcoming 2015 edition. Since the beginning of December the Seahawks have been the #1 NFL defense in total yards allowed and in points surrendered. This is the Packers chief overall concern as Seattle is on a monster 25-2 SU run at home. The Seahawks have won seven straight kept the opposing offenses under control limiting five of the teams to seven points or less. My favorite player in the NFL is QB Wilson and the leader is 41-13 SU as a starter. SEATTLE has a huge edge playing their second playoff game in the post season at home, they’re rested and successful with a high level of confidence, especially with their defense healthy. Granted the Seattle offense centers on Wilson and Marshawn Lynch (1,300+), but electric Wilson gives Seattle an added edge considering Rodgers (no matter success) will not be 100%. For Green Bay all we can say is it was a team effort vs. Dallas, but the Pokes really lost the game in the first half when they failed to take control of the game with Rodgers obviously gimpy. As always it will be a high level challenge for the Packers to go into Seattle and win. When QB Rodgers (4,381) is healthy his 38 touches are a stat to revel over, but if not, GB will need to use RB Lacy often. The former SEC running back has 9 touches this season with 1,139 yards. His counter balance on the outside is Jordy Nelson (1,519) who brought home 13 touches to support Rodgers’ arm abilities. The last time these two met was back in September with Seattle winning 36-16 in Seattle. KEY: Seattle’s defense held the Packers running attack to 80 yards on the ground. This does not bode well for the Packers, especially considering the home team is 4-1-2 ATS in the series. Plus Seattle is HOT against the spread in the playoff rounds with a solid 5-1 ATS mark. Realize the early money is supporting Green Bay, but we just can’t see Rodgers’ offense not committing key turnovers allowing the Seahawks scoring chances. |
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01-12-15 | Ohio State +7 v. Oregon | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 153 h 45 m | Show | |
5* Ohio State +7 over Oregon ***Alert As you know our BOWL GOY cashed HUGE with Ohio State winning SU as an UNDERDOG over Alabama...Here is our BEST BET for the Monday Championship Game. I will return later this week with a complete analysis, and I thank you for your patience and a GREAT COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON! 010815....***Alert After our research was finally completed we must now tell you the line is keyed at Oregon -6 over Ohio State. I am not thrilled with the change considering the public domain had part of the action, along with the sharp money. Remember the Oregon football program has never defeated Ohio State, however this could be the VERY BEST Oregon team in history. ADVANTAGE...Ohio State does have a huge edge in practice time, and I'm talking about the normal 18 practices allowed for bowl games and spring preparation. Since the Buckeye student body has not returned to school HC Meyer can call practice as much as needed...Oregon is following strict limitations and adherence to what the NCAA guidelines are for their situation. Ohio State shows Vegas success vs. Pac-10 units with a 9-2-1 ATS edge. SPECIAL NOTE: CHECK BACK SUNDAY NIGH FOR A POSSIBLE TOTAL MOVE |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos OVER 53.5 | 24-13 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 9 m | Show | |
NFL AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK Play on: 5* Colts/Broncos (120) OVER the total @ 4:00 Eastern Realize this is a natural move, but it comes out of the norm in the biggest weekend during any NFL season. It’s the greatness of Manning (despite what the media is broadcasting) vs. Luck of Indianapolis. The series has been HIGH going 8-1 OVER L9 times out. Supporting this angle is the fact when the Colts go on the road they have a fairly consistent trend of showing OVER 10-4 exactly. Historically, Denver has been very consistent at 33-13-1 OVER at home. Plus the Manning unit is 10-2-1 OVER after allowing 15 or less points. Good Luck, and thanks for using BDS. |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys +6 v. Green Bay Packers | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 53 h 5 m | Show | |
5* Dallas+ over Green Bay NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE WEEK BDS ...return later with complete analysis, note the line is thundering down, all because of the injury to QB Rodgers, believe this is an over reaction, as many players in the NFL have sustained similar injuries for periods of time without making noise about said injury. But, with the over zealous networks searching for intel, the construct formulates the injury as almost "life threatening?" Since we are on Dallas no matter, I am not happy about the exchange rate dropping...I will return tonight with our "game" analysis...Have a great weekend. |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers OVER 52 | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
4* OVER... Not buying bs concerning Rodgers abilities to perform at a high level. Feel we will see turnovers creating opps for both sides of the encounter...Should have each team in the 30's. |
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01-10-15 | Carolina Panthers v. Seattle Seahawks -12 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots -7 | 31-35 | Loss | -100 | 67 h 53 m | Show | |
011015 Play on: 4* New England (12-4) over Baltimore (11-6) @ 4:35 Eastern Re: Baltimore has not played in temperatures less than 38 degrees The line opened -7-1/2 New England, but has since been driven down to the whole number -7. Which is to be expected with the Ravens record against the Patriots, and the fact sharps were looking to take numbers rather than laying in this exciting football game. For those who have had their minds steeped in comet research it is now time for a reality check. For the Patriots loyal base this is not good news as their favorites have been smashed in recent playoff meetings vs. Baltimore . Against the spread we find the Ravens 5-0 ATS on the road in playoff games, while inside the series Baltimore is 3-0-1 ATS at New England. But, we look for those trends to end abruptly. We note, the Ravens arrived this post season with help from the Steelers as their offense was short staffed with RB Bell on the sidelines. Plus Baltimore was fortunate having DT Ngata return from a four week suspension just in time to face Big Ben. No matter the Ravens travel to New England full of confidence with a solid coach in Harbaugh and history of playoff successes against the enemy. The Patriots last played the Ravens in December 2012 accounting for a 41-7 blowout for New England. It was a great day as the Ravens, who some think are the most disliked team in the NFL fell very hard. So it is clear why there was immediate line movement for Baltimore (Revenge), their successes against Billy B. and the heightened anticipation with the expelling of the Pittsburgh playoff interests and recent spread history. Plus the Ravens run defense is holding the opposition to 88.3 yards per game. So, It is critical for NE to establish their ground arsenal to take pressure off Brady and the banged up receiver corpse. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS at home vs. a team with a >.500 road mark. While Baltimore shows 2-9-1 ATS after allowing 350+ yards in their last game and 4-11-1 ATS against the American Football Conference. Looking at each unit the most glaring weakness on either side of the ball is the Baltimore secondary….QB Brady threw 33 touches this year! New England by 10. |
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01-04-15 | Toledo v. Arkansas State +3.5 | Top | 63-44 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
01-04-15 | Detroit Lions v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 49 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
01-04-15 | Cincinnati Bengals +4 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 46 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 1 m | Show |
104 Play on: 10* Baltimore/Pittsburgh OVER 46 NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR BDS One of the keys in this perception is the fact RB Bell is very doubtful in the game for Pittsburgh. In addition, the wet weather forecast has brought the money in on the UNDER with line dropping from the opener of 48-1/2 to 45 at the Westgate in Las Vegas. To be clear both Quarterback Flacco and Roethlisberger have been productive in foul weather players over the years. Plus they are both very experienced quarterbacks. From the rushing standpoint each unit possesses solid running games 4.1 yards per carry for Pittsburgh, and 4.5 yards per carry Baltimore. Against the pass the Pittsburgh defense shows rated #27 allowing….7.3 yards per pass. Baltimore is ranked #23…allowing 7.3 yards per pass. The theory indicators here projects yardage possibilities which will as a norm lead to scoring opportunities. The series is trending OVER 11-4-1. In wild card type encounters the Steelers have shot OVER in 5 shot and 11-1 OVER home game playoffs. Finally, the Ravens have shot HIGH at a 5-1 clip in road games vs. >.500 home units. One final and critical note…I project the subject line at 44-1/2 on Saturday, please pay attention to the weather forecasts for the game. If you see the WEATHER FORECAST IMPROVING….move on the game...Good Luck and thank you. |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 38 | 16-27 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
01-02-15 | UCLA v. Kansas State +1.5 | 40-35 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Kansas State + over UCLA Just a quick note on the betting cycles in Las Vegas. Customers from California and Arizona visit the Strip often on NFL weekends and weeks and when COLLEGE FOOTBALL hits prime time large. This week was a case in point. We note with PAC-10 teams are looking solid in the bowls, especially Oregon and Stanford....dollars have hit the UCLA side, and we thank the public domain for inspiring this play. Statistically, the Wildcats have many edges and bring coach Snyder to the forefront in a BIG GAME. In closing, Kansas State is 16-5 ATS off a SU loss, while UCLA is 1-4 ATS vs. the Big-12. TAKE ALL THE POINTS! |
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01-01-15 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
10* OHIO STATE+ over Alabama....COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. WHAT URBAN AND LITTLE NICKY HAVE DONE FOR THE INTEREST LEVEL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAS BEEN AMAZING. NUMEROUS REPORTING OUTLETS HAVE SMACKED BOTH COACHES IN THEIR LEAD ADDITIONS WHICH FOCUS ON THE BOWL SEASON. MORE THEY HAVE BEEN FEATURING THIS ENCOUNTER AS "ANOTHER BOWL WIN FOR ALABAMA," BUT TRUST ME IT WILL BE A VERY COMPETITIVE GAME BETWEEN TWO OLD FRIENDS. REMEMBER THE BUCKEYES ARE SOLID AT THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE, AND WON'T BE INTIMATED BY THE 'BAMA MONIKER. STILL IT REALITY THAT THE TIDE IS A MORE EFFECTIVE TEAM AND PROGRAM SINCE THEY ARE COMING OUT OF THE SEC. AND HAVE TWICE AS MANY 5* RECRUITS PLAYING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL THAN THE BUCKEYES. BUT, AFTER SEEING THE 1-3 SU RECORD FOR THE SEC IN BOWL GAMES, I AM EVEN MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS SELECTION...REMEMBER URBAN MEYER WILL NOT BE CAUGHT NAPPING VS. #1. SOLID INDICATORS FROM TECHNICAL DATA ILLUSTRATE ALABAMA 5-13-1 ATS L19 GAMES OUT. MORE IMPORTANT THE CRIMSON TIDE ARE AN ALMOST PERFECT 0-7-1 ATS L8 NON-CONFERENCE GAMES...CLOSE! |
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01-01-15 | Florida State +10 v. Oregon | Top | 20-59 | Loss | -130 | 50 h 23 m | Show |
HAPPY NEW YEAR...BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR GOES ONLY WED. MORNING 01/01/15 010115 FIRST MEETING 10* Florida State +10 over Oregon Rose Bowl We are going against our summer forecast of Oregon and Oklahoma in the FINAL GAME of the season. The Sooners out early because of injuries and so-so quarterbacking, while #3 Oregon we feel will be upset on Thursday by the Seminoles. We agree that Oregon (12-1) is a super unit, especially with QB Mariota (Mr. Heisman) at quarterback, while being strong at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Ditto, Florida State who is UNDEFEATED at 13-0 and #2 in the country carrying the same assets with Mariota an edge over Winston at the helm. FSU has won 6 straight bowl games. No matter, whoever wins goes to the first ever CFB Championship game on January 12th. As the former national champions Florida State has had a mixture of issues on the team this season, and still managed to continue their winning streak currently at 29 games. The Sems have garnered one of the best post season SU records in the nation with a 27-14-2 life time record. We can’t discount the relative talent and history of the Ducks program. HC Helfrich does not have the pedigree of Jimbo Fisher, but his club closed the season winning eight straight games. Their only this season was to pesky Arizona way back in early October 31-24. Still, the Ducks avenged that difficult loss with a PAC-12 Championship defeating Arizona 51-13. Unlike FSU the Ducks have a losing post season record at 12-15. As said earlier it appears this will be a super duel between QB Winston (3,359) who threw for 24 touches. QB Mariota (3,783) threw for 38 touches. Plus the kid ran for 669 yards which shows his duality. The skill position talent for the opposing units appear dead even with the exception of FSU who has a first round draftee in WR Greene (1,306) who hauled in 93 catches. Also, the Oregon defense can ill afford to ignore the down field abilities of Nick O’Leary a legit first rounder too. We understand the Sems defense has fallen off somewhat this season. It certainly helps to have a pair of receiving outlets like WR Rashad Greene and TE Nick O'Leary to count on. Greene, FSU's all-time leading receiver, had another hugely productive year, hauling in 93 balls, for 1,306 yards and seven TDs. O'Leary, a First-Team All-American, took home the Mackey Award as the nation's top tight end after catching 47 balls, for 614 yards and six scores. Also, there is slight edge in RB with Karlos Williams of FSU who scored ten touches this season. Surely, I sound biased, but that’s the reason for the selection. The actual winning edge I believe will come from FSU PK Aguayo who is a first team AA this season. We know Florida State’s has had some bad games allowing the opposition to breath down their necks, but that’s asset here. We close with a wonderful tech as the Sems are 8-1-1 ATS bowl games. We know the Ducks have covered 8 straight, however, it’s FSU 38 Oregon 37. |
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01-01-15 | Wisconsin v. Auburn OVER 63.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
5* Wisconsin/Auburn OVER the total We two schools who love to run the football, but the War Eagle looks to have added edges in speed and motivation. Wisconsin's Barry Alvarez once again takes over the coaching duties with their former coach defecting late in the season. So, the talking heads have asked, "Can the Badgers be responsive to the former coach after being manhandled by Ohio State 59-0." We see Wisconsin trying to be aggressive with their passing game down the field since it came up short against Ohio St, and the fact Auburn' "D" is ranked #80 nationally?? Although Wisconsin will improve offensively, questions do surface considering their TO probability in key situations. No doubt turnovers as a norm has increased the probability of "cheap points." No doubt Auburn is a depressed defense, but with their speed on offense, I would expect at least a 5 touchdown outing for QB Nick Marshall and that famed triple option offense. PROJECTED MATH CHARTS...Clearly indicate a HIGH scoring affair with each team getting into the 30's in the fourth quarter. SPECIAL NOTE: This selection is part of our Thursday Triple Crown. We will return later this morning we will return with our GOY, also part of the TCP. HAVE A GREAT DAY! |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech v. Mississippi State -6 | 49-34 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
12-30-14 | Louisville +7 v. Georgia | 14-37 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
4* Louisville +7 or higher....over Georgia Realize this is like pulling teeth going against a quality SEC unit with an outstanding coach. However, my whole basis for this side is the Louisville defense and their team speed. Overall, including SEC types Louisville is ranked HIGH in many "D" categories this season. So, we are projecting a lower scoring game than the posted number. However, more importantly we note the post season successes for SEC teams when they face Big-12 units (Arkansas and A&M), but this is an ACC unit that can run sideline to sideline on both sides of the ball (i.e.,Clemson, etc.). Also, the EMOTIONAL ANGLE IS ALL LOUISVILLE. |
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12-30-14 | Notre Dame +7 v. LSU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 461 h 30 m | Show | |
No Comment, ck. back later. |
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12-29-14 | Texas v. Arkansas -7 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
12-29-14 | West Virginia v. Texas A&M OVER 65 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
12-29-14 | West Virginia v. Texas A&M +1.5 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
12-28-14 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers -7 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
12-28-14 | Chicago Bears +6.5 v. Minnesota Vikings | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
12-28-14 | NY Jets +6.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 37-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
12-27-14 | Penn State v. Boston College UNDER 40 | 31-30 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
12-27-14 | Penn State +3 v. Boston College | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
12-27-14 | Duke v. Arizona State -7.5 | 31-36 | Loss | -102 | 49 h 40 m | Show | |
122714 Play on: 4* Arizona State (230) over Duke @ 2:00 Eastern SUN BOWL BEST Both schools come in after sensational 9-3 seasons. Against the spread ASU has a slight advantage at 6-3 with the Blue Devils 5-3 on the season. On offense, the Sun Devils are led by QB Kelly who threw for 1,874 yards with 20 touches. For the high flying Blue Devils Quarterback Anthony Boone leads the way with 2,507 yards throwing with 17 touches. In addition Boone ran for 5 touches complimenting his arm abilities. PF & PA found the Blue Devils with a net edge at +11.9 vs. +9.3 for Arizona State. Defensively, the Blue Devils (#67) are very talented this season ranking #18 in 3rd down defense and #20 in scoring defense. ASU (#84) illustrates a unit that is rated #6 in defensive touchdowns. Remember the Sun Devils have a solid defense and faced much stiffer competition than Duke. The definitive differences between these two is SOS and the fact ASU has a more prolific running attack that will control the clock. Further, ASU comes in ready to explode as they support a 5-1 ATS mark off a SU loss. |
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12-26-14 | Illinois +6 v. Louisiana Tech | 18-35 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
12-24-14 | Fresno State v. Rice -2 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
12-24-14 | Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky OVER 65.5 | 48-49 | Win | 100 | 182 h 35 m | Show | |
We will have a complete analysis later this week...Thank you. |
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12-24-14 | Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky -3.5 | 48-49 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
12/24/14 5* Western Kentucky (218) over Central Michigan @ 12:00 Eastern Bahama Bowl Best Most of you know our Annual 20* College Football Game of the Year was Western Kentucky over Army. We’ve stayed close to the ‘Toppers this year simply because QB Doughty and company run a gun slingers offense. With so much speed on the outside and the running and throwing abilities of Doughty the ‘Toppers even upset Marshall 67-66, a game we mistakenly stayed away from in these pages. No matter, WKU has defeated Bowling Green, came close to defeating the Illini, defeated Army, Navy, UTEP and Old Dominion. Central Michigan comes in 7-5 as does Western Kentucky. The Chips have defeated Purdue, NIU and Miami Ohio. In the SOS rating systems most consider the ‘Toppers playing a more difficult schedule. Believe me the fact that WKU beat Marshall sells me on this game. Plus, the EMOTIONAL ANGLE is all Western Kentucky as in 2012 the Chips defeated their opposition (WKU) in the Little Caesars’ Bowl 24-21. Statistically, WKU is +5.0 vs Central’s +2.0 in the seasons overall net point differentials. We note, the passing of WKU allows a huge advantage for the school down south. Realize Central Michigan will be a much more physical defense, especially stopping the run. But, remember CMU is negative in the turnover factor which +WKU. The Chips were 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season. Granted CMU comes in with some success in bowl games carrying 3-1-1 ATS record. However, the Chips are 5-15-1 ATS vs. non-conference teams. And, since this is being played on grass we have to mention the ‘Toppers are 14-3-1 ATS on that surface. I believe you will see a wide open game with Western Kentucky winning by 7. |
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12-22-14 | BYU +2 v. Memphis | 48-55 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
12-21-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals +7 | 35-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 57 m | Show | |
122114 4* Arizona+ (130) over Seattle @ 8:30 Eastern There have been situations this season both in college and pro football that have been close to the unbelievable. The QB injury problems at Ohio State and Utah State in College Football, and now Arizona in the NFL are clear examples. Sunday night the third string QB Ryan Lindley (1-3 as starter) of Arizona gets the call against the #1 scoring defense of Seattle (17.3). By the way, the Seahawks have held the opposition to under 273 yards per game overall. Arizona (11-3) is ranked 25th in overall offense (20.3), and have difficulties at times this season scoring points. Over the last 5 weeks Arizona has been held to 12.8 points per game. Where Arizona (10-4) is not so-so is on defense as they’ve held nine opponents to seventeen points or less. No matter, Cardinals have been a resilient team behind HC Bruce Arians. In their initial game, this season up in Seattle the Seahawks shutdown Arizona 19-13. Last year Seattle won 34-22 in Arizona, while the Cardinals won at Seattle by a 17-10 count. This should be a low scoring (36) game with RB Williams trying to control the tempo for the Cardinals offense. Technically, speaking the bad news for Seattle is their 1-4 ATS mark during week #16. Arizona has some real strong points as they show 6-0 ATS at home (7-0 SU) AND 7-1 ATS during the month of December. In the series the home team has covered 5-of-7. Finally, Arizona is 12-3 ATS vs. the NFC…TAKE ALL THE POINTS…Good Luck. |
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12-21-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 48.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
12-21-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +130 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 12-20 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
12-20-14 | South Alabama -3 v. Bowling Green | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -108 | 81 h 32 m | Show |
12/20/14 Play on: 10* (209) South Alabama -3 (not higher) over Bowling Green @ 9:15 Eastern Site: Montgomery, Alabama Camellia Bowl This is the first ever Camellia Bowl and the first post season event for the Jags. So without hesitation, I can estimate the EMOTIONAL ANGLE rests with the team from Alabama, especially since this is a “home” game for SA. Also, BG comes in off three straight losses. If you know how I think, it should register with you “that speed kills.” On the playing field the Bowling Green defense can’t stay with the South Alabama offense (6-6) on the edges. This projects quick scoring drives for the Jags, while the Bowling Green (7-6) stogy offense will be unable to keep up for four quarters. You see, the Falcons “D” is rated #106 in scoring defense. And, #104 in defensive efficiency at (7.87)…By the way, that plays into a very decent ranking for SA at #56 with a +.01 in defensive efficiency. The big play maker for South Alabama is QB Brandon Bridge who is a senior and carries a 6-5 frame. Bridge has thrown for over 1,600 yards this season with 14 touches. Controlling the youngster will cause huge problems for that BG defense…JAGS ROLL! |
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12-20-14 | San Diego Chargers v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 41 | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Play on: 4* San Diego/San Francisco UNDER 41 A very complex set of circumstances surround this battle, especially those affecting the focus of Niners HC Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers show off BB brutal losses, and now must respond again on the road in a night time affair. With the issues inside the San Francisco offense feel you will see a very conservative game plan. The Chargers too will look not to make mistakes in this national game, and must respect Rivers injured back. Technically, it's all one-sided in the UNDER construct. Let's look at the Chargers who show 6-0 UNDER on Saturday's and 4-1 UNDER in the month of December. SF is almost PERFECT with the UNDER hitting 5 straight in their games. Plus they have shot UNDER 5 straight at home, while carving out a solid 7-1 UNDER grade off a SU loss...LOW! |
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12-20-14 | Utah -3 v. Colorado State | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 92 h 53 m | Show | |
12/20/14 Play on: 4* Utah (205) over Colorado State @ 3:30 Eastern Las Vegas Bowl Site: Las Vegas, Nevada This is a strange game right from the start as these two played in the same conference for 57 years. Utah #23 leads the all-time series 55-22-2. The Rams show with the better record 10-2 SU, while Utah played the more difficult schedule 8-4 SU coming into the Saturday battle. Utah has won 10-of-11 SU in bowl action. The key emotional angle in the game goes against Colorado State as HC McElwain accepted a big time position in the SEC with Florida…. Offensively, the Rams took off in McElwain's system as quarterback Grayson, wide receiver Higgins and RB Hart (‘Bama transfer) paced an attack that drove the offense to almost 500 yards a game #12 in the nation. That’s good news for OC Baldwin who will run the team until a new coach is available. In this situation CSU OC will be calling plays from sideline, instead of from the press box. There is a major difference in responsibility as the HC on the field tasks are more complicated adding additional pressure to the overall staff. The Utah defense (#72) has the complex job of stopping the diversified Rams offense. But, the Utes have held a much higher level of opponent to 26.2 points per game, and 403 yards on average. So when you place records into the cue Utah possesses a strength advantage defensively. Plus they have a super RB in Devonte Booker who garnered 1,350 yards rushing and 9 touches. And, with the Utah defense having the edge at the line of scrimmage (#1 Sacks), the CSU chances of winning SU are slim. In fact, the Rams defense allowed a 100+ yard rusher in all of their games. Believe you will see Wilson and Booker control the clock reducing the amount of positions for the Rams offense. At this write the line is -3 in favor of Utah. This season the key wins for Utah were against Michigan, UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford, USC and Colorado...In those games Utah went 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS. Their four losses were against Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon. In the last eight meetings Utah has covered 7 games. Plus Utah is 36-17-2 ATS in non-conference games. We know CSU is 9-1 ATS off a SU loss, but the Utes show with a solid 8-2 ATS mark vs. winning teams and 7-2 ATS in bowl...UTAH 36 Colorado State 24. |
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12-18-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 40.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
12-18-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
(102) 4* Jacksonville -3 (buy 1/2 point, if the line is -3-1/2 ) over Tennessee Okay, we know the Jags have not covered the number as a chalk in 46 games. However, they are different breed in 2014. Obviously, much more competitive on the offensive side with the ability of QB Bortles to throw over the top. The Titans show after losing 8 straight game, and now may have to use the inconsistent Henne. No matter, Tennessee is a disgraceful 3-13-2 vs. the AFC and 7-19-1 ATS in the month of December. Finally, the Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in the series. Please make sure you can buy down to -3, it will surely help...Good Luck! |
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12-15-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears OVER 53 | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Play on: 4* New Orleans/Chicago OVER the total Okay, we know the Saints are in the hunt for NFC South, and the Bears are wasting away. No matter, with QB Cutler and QB Brees doing business we fully expect a HIGH SCORING GAME. The series has gone OVER in 5-of-6 with the Saints 5-0 OVER in their most recent 5 games after giving up more than 30 points. In addition, New Orleans has shot OVER in 6-of-the-last-7 games vs. the NFC and 5-of-6 OVER on the road. For the Saints the total has gone OVER at an 80% clip L10 games. Chicago has gone OVER in 5 straight during December and 9-of-12 OVER vs. the NFC. In the last 31 games the Bears have gone OVER 22 times...We are accruing some line value today as the public is going low...GO HIGH! |
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12-14-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -10 | 7-17 | Push | 0 | 66 h 24 m | Show | |
5* Seattle over San Francisco I won't spend much time talking about this key angle for Sunday. The basic facts have the Seahawks (9-4) on a 6-1 SU run and looking for control in the NFC. San Francisco(7-6) and QB Kapernick have gone the other way fundamentally, while dropping three straight ATS. In fact, Seattle has covered 6 straight in the series, and all though this is DD, we still love the Seahawks, especially since their 33-16 ATS at home in December. Good Luck. |
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12-14-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 41 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 21 m | Show | |
12-14-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
12-14-14 | Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 v. Cleveland Browns | 30-0 | Win | 102 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
12-14-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Buffalo Bills +5.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10* Buffalo+ over Green Bay The Packers fit the mold on Sunday as they show as a road chalk the #1 unit in betting circles. I'm not degrading the handicap of the public domain. But, from the technical standpoint the Packers are 2-5-1 ATS after playing on Monday night followed by a Sunday encounter. On Monday I explained in these pages why Atlanta+ would cover against Green Bay. It's their forgiving defense which causes their on field issues. When we add in the home (Buffalo) field edge in series of 4-0 ATS, you can ascertain my reasoning. From the scheduling standpoint the Packers do not have a "stress" game until Detroit shows down the road. Finally Green Bay has never won in Buffalo. |
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12-13-14 | Army v. Navy UNDER 57.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 53 h 24 m | Show | |
12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 40.5 | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
4* St. Louis (325)/Arizona UNDER the total@ 8:25 Eastern NFL KEY RELEASE BDS Normally, would not go into an encounter when St. Louis (10-3) is booked as a chalk against a foe with the ‘Zona pedigree. However, can’t help noting the Rams (6-7) have penned a shutout in each of their last two games vs. Washington and Oakland 76-0 to be exact. In addition, they show in DOUBLE REVENGE after taking it on the chin from Cardinals 31-14 & 30-10. We know the Cardinals are off a creditable win over Kansas City 17-14 in Arizona. Prior ‘Zona had lost BB road games to Atlanta and Seattle, and believe it or not, the Falcons had more effective numbers than Seattle on both sides of the ball. Interesting our power ratings show higher numbers for St. Louis than New Orleans, Minnesota and Miami. Feel we all have to show some respect for the Rams. But, where the edge is for both teams is on the DEFENSIVE end. In fact, in the last 4 games Arizona has held opponents to 52 points overall, which is 13 points a game. Arizona will play a conservative game with QB Stanton at the helm. Believe you will see a field position game. In the series the total has been a conservative venue 9-4 UNDER L13. Oh, we forgot the Rams are 21-5-1 UNDER in December. Arizona is 4-1 OVER off a SU win indicates a low scoring defensive battle…GOOD LUCK. |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Falcons +13 v. Green Bay Packers | 37-43 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
110814 Play on: 4* Atlanta+ (179) Green Bay @ 8:30 Eastern Monday Night Best Bet Tonight 5-7 Atlanta travels to Green Bay to face the 9-3 Packers in a NFC battle. Believe it or not the Falcons with their losing record are the leaders in the sorry NFC South. No unit in the NFC South has a positive net point differential. On the road Atlanta is 2-4 SU, while the Packers show 6-0 SU at home. The Falcons have a real rough close affecting their playoff hopes with GB, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Carolina left. Atlanta has taken 3-of-4 SU. Green Bay does lead the series with Atlanta going 14-12 SU, but the Falcons have covered 4 straight in GB. Ironically, if the Packers lose tonight they’ll end up tied for the division lead with Detroit who is 9-4. High flying Green Bay comes in the darlings of their fan base. QB Rodgers is still #1 in QBR with a 118.6 rating carrying 32 touches and 3,325 yards. By the way, the three interceptions thrown by Rodgers have come in the three loses by the Packers. Overall, the Pack is ranked #15 in Total Offense with 377.9 yards a game and 31.7 points per game. Opposing Atlanta has a productive attack ranked #17 in Total Offense with 374 yards a game and 24.3 points per game. Defensively, the Pack has key edges in Total Yards allowed with GB 336.8 yards per game vs. Atlanta 403.2 yards given up on average. Total points per game allowed, GB 20.9 points vs. Atlanta’s 24.9 points. Still, there are dividing technical numbers when we realize the road team is 7-1 ATS in the series with the underdog 6-2 ATS. Finally, in an odd angle the Packers are 1-7 ATS vs. a losing unit which illustrates they show flat sometimes vs. so-so units. Green Bay has Atlanta, Buffalo and Tampa Bay left before facing Detroit in the final game of the season. We expect Green Bay not to be 100% focused, despite the MNF venue…TAKE THE POINTS! |
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12-07-14 | New England Patriots v. San Diego Chargers OVER 50.5 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 39 m | Show | |
12-07-14 | Seattle Seahawks +1 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 32 h 50 m | Show | |
5* Seattle +1 over Philadelphia We had the Eagles over Dallas down in Dallas on Thanksgiving. But, Seahawks are different kind of football. Defense, running QB etc. insures a different result Sunday. We Seattle is not the same team as their Championship team. But, the Eagles current starting QB Sanchez has faced lesser defensive editions in his starts this season. In addition, the facts are clear that Philly is running football with their OL in tact with the exception Heramens who is out. So, now we see the emergence again of RB Shady McCoy. Yes, the home field in Philly is HUGE EDGE, but we believe you will see QB Sanchez depreciate somewhat Sunday in key 3rd down situations. In the end QB Wilson will engineer the one play that wins the game. After all, he is the one QB on field Sunday that has won a SUPER BOWL..Good Luck! Note: #1 L60 days #1 College Football, #1 in College and NBA hoops combined, #3 in money won +$60,000...SIGN-UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FOOTBALL SEASON AND EARN! |
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12-07-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 48.5 | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
12-07-14 | Kansas City Chiefs -1 v. Arizona Cardinals | 14-17 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
12-07-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
Play on: 10* Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati The Steelers have lost 2-of-3 (Jets and Saints) and are in a MUST WIN scenrio. Pittsburgh is 7-5 in the division with the Bengals 8-3-1 leading the North. Granted last time QB Dalton helped the Bengals defeat the Bucs with a solid second-half. No matter, Cincinnati is very vulnerable defensively ranked #18 in points allowed, while surrendering over 125 yards a game on the ground. This is were we expect Pittsburgh to control the tempo offensively. With Pittsburgh 13-3-1 ATS at Cincinnati, expect a SU & ATS win by Big Ben and company. Good Luck! |
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12-06-14 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State +4 | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
3* Ohio State over Wisconsin Make sure you have +4 or +4-1/2 in this encounter. Note, we have great respect for Wisconsin going in, but the talent on-hand with Ohio State is more advanced with the exception at the quarterback position. Look, these are common opponents, and Urban Meyer (10-0 ATS Underdog) in this underdog role is unbeatable. Ohio State in the series is 5-1-1 ATS with the dog 3-0-1 ATS. Finally, on neutral sites Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS. |
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12-06-14 | Florida State v. Georgia Tech +4 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show | |
120614 Play on: 4* Georgia Tech+ (126) over Florida State @ 8:00 Eastern ACC GAME OF THE WEEK The way Tech can win this SU is utilizing their magic playbook being run by red shirt soph QB Justin Thomas who has been on fire of late. Thomas has burned the opposing defenses for 2,321 yards running and passing with an amazing 21 touches going into action on Saturday. Tech has the right mindset on offense to really hurt the Sems, as they run the football for 334 yards per game. The highly rated Florida State defense has been hit hard this year, and you can tell by the overall scores. Their defense is giving up 22+ points per game and 371+ yards per game. Although the defense of Florida State has +23 takeaways, they fall short offensively with their offensive unit allowing 17 sacks. But, we know FSUs offense has a habit out playing their defensive issues by scoring 45 points per game behind 430+ yards of offense. In the series Tech has covered 4 in a row, including their 2012 ACC TITLE GAME when FSU survived laying -14, 21-15. The last time Tech defeated Florida State was in 2009 when Tech won SU 49-44 as a three-point underdog. The psychology of the game sets up well for Georgia Tech as Florida State is still undefeated with some of their players talking out loud about going undefeated. With all the changes and the movement in the PLAYOFF four best, the heat is on Florida State, not Tech. For the ATS cover we know Florida State is 3-10 ATS L13 times out and 3-9 ATS off a SU win. The Sems are 0-3-2 ATS L5 in the series with the UNDERDOG 3-0-2 ATS. Tech has covered 5 straight games, 4 straight in conference. In an outright war, take Georgia Tech 35-34. |
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12-06-14 | Kansas State +7 v. Baylor | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
Play on: 10* (117) KANSAS STATE +7 over Baylor….7:45 Eastern COLLEGE REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR BDS The line opened -9 or -9-1/2 favoring the home standing Bears. Baylor is trying to garner a Playoff berth, while usurping the position of TCU in the Final Four. No matter the health of QB Petty, this is a BIG GAME for Kansas State (9-2) head coach Bill Snyder and represents DOUBLE REVENGE. Not only are we catching line value, but we have the emotional angle riding high. We note, if QB Petty starts for Baylor, and it is well known prior to game time, expect the line to move up favoring Baylor. Last year the Bears lost 35-25, while in 2012 the score was 52-24. In 2011 Kansas State won 36-35 at Manhattan. Okay we realize the Bears (10-1) are ranked #4 in total offense blowing out almost 49.8 points per game. Kansas State is ranked #12 in total defense holding down the opposing offenses to 20.3 points per game. The Wildcats are averaging 36.6 points per game with the Bears defense is a decent sort holding opponents to 23.9 points per game. The UNDERDOG has covered 4 straight in the series with KSU being 4-1 ATS L5. Plus, the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS off a SU win and 21-6 ATS vs. a >.500+ unit. TAKE THE POINTS! |
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12-06-14 | Iowa State v. TCU -33.5 | 3-55 | Win | 100 | 95 h 31 m | Show | |
5* TCU -33, -33-1/2 over Iowa StateCFB GAME OF THE WEEK BDS Always leery when laying this type enhanced number. But, the HORNED FROGS are getting healthy for this home game knowing Playoff ratings are at hand...We fully expect TCU to cover in this situation very easily, considering they will be sky high. From a state of Iowa newspaper: "A win over Iowa State may not be enough for fourth-ranked Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs will have to do it with style. A dominating, leave-no-doubt win for host Texas Christian during this Saturday's 11 a.m. game against the Cyclones could help land the Horned Frogs in this season's College Football Playoff. I can't illustrate this too much, don't think the Horned Frogs will be flat." Statistically, the Cyclones have HUGE ISSUES on defense, their rushing defense allows 5.7 yards game...WHY WOULD YOU EVER USE YOUR PASSING GAMES? The Iowa State's RD is ranked #119. The passing "D" is just as bad #88 giving up 260.6 yards per game. So we add this technical note, IOWA STATE is 0-7 ATS after giving up more than 280 yards passing. Further, the Cyclones are ranked #119 (5.7 yards per game) in rushing defense. Obviously, the MAJOR WEAKNESS for Iowa State on defense. Recall TCU is 7-0 ATS L7 home and 11-2 ATS L13 overall. |
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12-06-14 | Louisiana Tech +12.5 v. Marshall | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
(121) 10* Louisiana Tech +12-1/2 over Marshall As you know the two teams out of the south that I love are Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech. Tech paid dividends for us last week, and we missed using the ‘Toppers in that 67-66 win. Clearly, is seems that the lines makers are making mistakes with the numbers concerning second level BCS types. Here is no change as the line opened -14 and -14-1/2 favoring high flying Marshall. Our ratings have Marshall at -8 or -8-1/2. So we have a play AUTOMATICALLY because of the net point differential. Now you add in the fine spread record by the Bulldogs in road shows 20-7 ATS, our basis for winning is enhanced. Plus Tech is 4-0 ATS vs. a unit with a winning mark. Finally, we have the Bulldogs hot in conference with a 4-1 ATS record…TAKE THE POINTS! Don't forget to purchase our 3-DAY packages and save money inside our all-sports agenda. |
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12-05-14 | Arizona v. Oregon -14.5 | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
12-05-14 | Northern Illinois -6.5 v. Bowling Green | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show | |
12-04-14 | Dallas Cowboys -4 v. Chicago Bears | 41-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
12-04-14 | Central Florida +7 v. East Carolina | Top | 32-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
12-01-14 | Miami Dolphins -6.5 v. NY Jets | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
120114 5* Miami (475) over New York Jets @ 8:30 Eastern When the 2-9 Jets face the 7-5 Dolphins on Monday night, we believe the score will end up being a one-sided affair with Miami winning out. After all, the Jets season hopes are long gone, as they now play out the string of remaining games, whereas Miami must keep winning to have any chance of making the post season. New York’s most dominate issue on offense is the QB position with Smith, then Vick and now back to Smith illustrates my mindset, there is no consistency on offense. Last time out the Jets were smashed by the Bills 38-3. Another huge problem is the sacks given up by the New York offensive line. This is the reason the Jets fail to generate extended drives for a score. The issue is counter intuitive to the defense which ends up being on the field to long. In fact, this is a key reason why New York is ranked #30 in points allowed. The Miami loss to Denver (39-36) really puts immense pressure on the club considering their current record in the division (7-5). Much blame was put on QB Tannehill who has had a great season, but the youngster threw a critical late interception that pretty much closed the deal vs. the Broncos. When you have young players at key positions they tend to falter at the most inopportune times. For example, Miami is 0-3 this season in games decided by 4 points or less. No doubt this battle is very important, and the Dolphins should get lucky with New York -12 in the turnover category. In the series the road team is on a PERFECT 4-0 ATS run, while Miami has generated bias with their solid 5-1-1 ATS mark in New York. Overall the Jets are just 2-8-1 ATS L11 times out. If you’re playing this game the only side is Miami, because of the “need” factor. |
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11-30-14 | Denver Broncos -1 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 29-16 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show | |
11-30-14 | New England Patriots v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 58 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
OUR SELECTIONS IN NCAA FOOTBALL AND BASKETBALL WENT 8-2 YESTERDAY. WE SWEEP ALL 6 TOP PLAYS..GOOD LUCK TODAY. |
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11-30-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Pittsburgh Steelers -4 | 35-32 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
11-29-14 | Auburn v. Alabama -9.5 | Top | 44-55 | Win | 100 | 141 h 5 m | Show |
Auburn has been down on defense, while sitting at #111th in penalties allowed. Auburn allows 3.9 yards per carry vs. opposing offenses and 142+ yards rushing per game.This is in contrast to 'Bama's "D" which is #6 in total defense holding opponents to 85.3 yards per game rushing. They've limited teams to under 15 points per game. Our point is, how can QB Marshall dent the Alabama defense with an offense that has committed costly mistakes and turnovers in key situations this season? Auburn does run for 266 yards per game and 35 points per outing. But, Auburn has yet to meet a talented defense as powerful as Nick Saban brings to the football field every week. The tradition of game came full circle last year when Auburn defeated Alabama and then went on to play in the championship game vs. Florida State. This year the Nick Saban coached 'Bama changes places in history with Auburn winning here by a 36-20 score, while staying #1 in the polls. |
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11-29-14 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +2.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
11-29-14 | Florida +7 v. Florida State | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
11-29-14 | Rutgers v. Maryland -7 | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
5* Maryland over Rutgers @ 3:30 Eastern These two do not like each other, and despite other reports we will see the Turtles ROLL BIG TIME Saturday. No doubt Rutgers has been the SU/ATS leader in the series, but they show 1-8 ATS in the month of NOVEMBER and 1-4 ATS on grass surfaces. In addition, when we look at these type RIVALRY GAMES we key in on defense. The Rutgers edition is allowing 30 points per game...while the Terps have played a tougher SOS. In closing I would look for a wide open game with MD winning out. FREE TOTAL: GO OVER with Maryland and Rutgers. |
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11-29-14 | Notre Dame v. USC -7 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 101 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
11-29-14 | North Carolina State +6.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
11-29-14 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech -7.5 | Top | 31-76 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show |
11-29-14 | Michigan v. Ohio State -21 | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
11-28-14 | Stanford v. UCLA -5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 40 m | Show |
10* UCLA over Stanford You can take my analysis from our FREE PICK on the Bruins last week and apply it here. UCLA (9-2) is simply too offensive for Stanford (6-5) in what should be a high scoring game. Yes, we know Stanford has won 6 straight in the series, but again they (Stanford) are over their heads here. The Bruins have distinct yardage edge, plus they show with the key turnover advantage. Stanford comes 4-0 ATS in November with the chalk 5-1 ATS in the series. Finally, the Cards after a big win last week are 0-6 ATS after a SU win. |
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11-28-14 | Nebraska v. Iowa | 37-34 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
11-28-14 | Northern Illinois +7.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
11-27-14 | TCU v. Texas +6 | 48-10 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
11-27-14 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions -7 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
11-24-14 | NY Jets v. Buffalo Bills OVER 42 | 3-38 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
11-23-14 | Dallas Cowboys -4.5 v. NY Giants | 31-28 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
11-23-14 | Washington Redskins v. San Francisco 49ers -9 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
11-23-14 | St. Louis Rams +5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
112314 Play on: 10* (269) St. Louis+ over San Diego @ 4:05 Eastern NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR I guess the question is how healthy is QB Rivers? He is injured most know about it, but the QB is a gamer and will show up on Sunday afternoon. San Diego is 6-4, while the Rams go on the road with a 4-6 record. We always think about the Chargers in the realm of an offensive minded club, but their defense has been their strength in 2014 ranked #9 overall, and #6 in points allowed at 19.2 per game. Now let’s get to the big news QB Shaun Hill of St. Louis. The quarterback guided the Rams to a SHOCKING 22-7 win over Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. His stat line 220 yards passing with one touchdown passing. With Hill’s ability to stretch the field with his arm, the Rams running game had a surge as running back Tre Mason cashed in with 113 yards his best production of the season. What is lost here is the abilities of the Rams front seven on defense, one of the best in the NFL. I think will see the Rams shutdown the Chargers running game forcing Rivers to throw into shifting coverage. Overall, I think the Rams will win 20-17 and again SHOCK the sporting community. If you’re thinking about playing the Chargers, think again as they field Sunday with a PERFECT 0-5 ATS run. Also, San Diego is 1-6 ATS in November with the Rams 4-1 ATS in the same month. |
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11-23-14 | Cincinnati Bengals +2 v. Houston Texans | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 41 h 18 m | Show | |
5* Cincinnati over Houston @ 1:00 Eastern 11/23 The Bengals responded nicely last week against a flat Orleans (27-10) ship that's fading. They now travel to Houston, a difficult building against a fired up football team bringing the defensive MVP to the playing field. I'm sure because of the situation the public domain is taking a ticket with the Texas club, but we have a different mindset here. Okay, we know Houston is hungry and sit just one game in back of the Indianapolis in AFC South. Their assets obviously are their aggressive defense led by Watt (4 TDs), while having the NFL's #3 ranked rushing attack. Where their weakness lies in the secondary as they have given up almost 300 yards a game. At this writing Cincinnati is averaging 22.4 points per game. Interesting the Houston defense is rated #30 in the NFL allowing over 389+yards per game. On the Houston side, QB Mallet gets the call for Fitzpatrick, and he's coming off a solid effort producing a QBR of 95.3. But, with the Bengals getting healthier on defense, I believe you will see a less effective outing Sunday. The Texans have a solid running game, but look for the Bengals to have a great day stuffing the run. In the Houston leads SU 5-3. Technically, the Bengals have covered 6 straight in the series and that's the reason for their underdog status. So, from our perspective we have have solid line value at +2, if you can purchase it higher do so. Remember the 5-5-1 Texans are 2-8 ATS off a SU win, and 2-11 ATS after an ATS win...Cincinnati 24 Houston 17 |
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11-23-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 49.5 | 3-23 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
11-23-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +7.5 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
11-22-14 | UNLV v. Hawaii -10 | 35-37 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
112214 Play on: 5* Hawaii (210) over UNLV @ 11:00 Eastern Looking at injury report this morning and checking the wire QB Decker is listed as probable, and most likely will play Saturday night for UNLV (2-9). He is banged up though, and that’s encouraging for us as UNLV is offensively challenged. Remember Decker, though, has 10 touches, but 15 interceptions which kills his QBR. But, UNLVs major weakness is defense as they are ranked #123 overall in total defense allowing 513.0 yards per game and 278.5 yards per game on the ground. They have been a disaster on the score sheet surrendering 37.6 points on average. The Rainbow Warriors (3-8) went out on the road last week and won over San Jose State 13-0 (first shutout since 2005). UNLV hits the island Saturday on an 0-4 run SU, they were purged by BYU 42-23. In the overall series with Hawaii the Rebels are 9-14 SU. UNLV stopped the Rainbow Warriors 39-37 last year, so this sets up a REVENGE game for Hawaii. The ‘Bows have a very competitive defense ranked #59 nationally, holding the opposition to 26.0 points per game. The Rebels show on a 0-6 SU streak on the road, while going 16-43-4 ATS on the road. UNLV is 1-6 ATS vs. Hawaii. Granted this is a tough number to lay, but Hawaii shows in a positive mindset with RB Isoefa now a viable offensive alternative. Also, there is special incentive for the Hawaii football team as their program is suffering from the financial standpoint, and would go away if interest in football is not revived…Good Luck! |
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11-22-14 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -28.5 | Top | 28-49 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
10* Baylor -28 over Oklahoma State I am inserting this with the line -28 -28-1/2, make sure you can buy a 1/2 point considering what the aforementioned line states. In this battle we have suffering Oklahoma State with injured QB, have the bottom rated offense in the conference, and they're trying to stay up with the Bears?? Baylor is #1 in total offense shooting 585 yards a game at the opposing defenses, and 51-points per game. Oklahoma State is on a 4 game losing streak and they've looked bad overall. Granted they have covered 7-of-8 in the series, but the home team is 4-0 ATS. Overall at home Baylor is a sensational 23-4 ATS, Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS and 0-7 ATS vs. a >.500+ team. |