Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army +3 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY After consecutive three point victories (over Louisville and Syracuse), undefeated Wake Forest probably needed the week off. The 6-0 Demon Deacons, now ranked 16th in the land, will next put that record to the test against Army. A week off before facing the Cadets is always preferable due to the added preparation for the triple option offense. But in the case of Wake, we just don’t see them having much success stopping Army’s ground game on Saturday. In those last two wins we spoke of (Louisville, Syracuse), Wake allowed 567 yards rushing. Ouch. Army averages nearly 300 rush yards/game. They were held well below that mark last week. But that was because they were facing a Wisconsin defense that is #1 in the country vs. the run and thus uniquely suited to stop them. The same can’t be said for this Demon Deacons’ defense. Army was 4-0 before suffering a shocking loss to Ball State, then losing by three in Madison. Now getting to play host to a Power 5 school will ensure there is no letdown in West Point. Wake is 1-5 ATS its last six tries as a road favorite. Army has covered seven of the last nine times it has been an underdog to a Power 5 team. Play on ARMY AAA |
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10-22-21 | Nets -1 v. 76ers | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN The Nets will look to rebound from a poor Opening Night performance when they travel to Philadelphia on Friday. The Sixers are a mess right now with the ongoing Ben Simmons drama. Of course, Brooklyn has its own share of drama with Kyrie Irving. But they can still call upon both Kevin Durant and James Harden. That may have not been enough when facing Milwaukee Tuesday, but we expect them to play far better here. The 76ers did beat the Pelicans by 20 on Wednesday. But tonight they are unlikely to shoot the ball as well as they did in that first game when they connected on over half their field goal attempts, including 52% from three. Really, this play boils down to two simple things: we think the Nets are better and also can’t see them starting 0-2. They were underdogs Tuesday. Tonight they are favorites. They are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida +1.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCF UCF has seen its season go in a bad direction ever since QB Dillon Gabriel was injured on the final play of the Louisville game. That play saw Gabriel throw a pick six to cost his team the game and they’ve lost two of three since. One of the losses was to Navy as a 15-point favorite. The other was last week to Cincinnati as a 22-point underdog. We’re obviously not going to penalize a team for losing to Cincinnati. In between the losses, both of which came on the road, the Golden Knights did defeat East Carolina 20-16 here at home. Now they are hosting Memphis on Friday. The Tigers come in having just snapped their own three-game losing streak. They beat Navy 35-17 at the Liberty Bowl. It was the first time this season that Memphis faced a FBS opponent and the game wasn’t decided by six points or less. We can see the home team squeaking out a close one here. Memphis relied on big plays to beat Navy, something they can’t always count on. The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games and 3-10 ATS coming off a straight up win. The last 14 meetings between the two schools have seen the home team cover 13 times and the one exception was UCF. Play on UCF AAA |
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10-21-21 | Mavs v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 87-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The Hawks flew their way into the Eastern Conference Finals last season before eventually bowing out to Milwaukee in six games. After hiring Nate McMillian to be the head coach on March 1st, no team in the East had a better won-loss record than Atlanta’s 27-11. They also won 23 of their final 29 home games. The entire core of that team has been brought back and there have been some minor additions. What made the Hawks’ late season run so impressive is that they had several key players injured. Now fully healthy, we expect them to challenge for a top three spot in the standings. Can’t say the same for Dallas out in the Western Conference. Jason Kidd was a questionable coaching hire in our view. The Mavericks did not get out of the first round last season and are no better on paper for 2021-22. It’s only the first game of the season, but one motivating factor for the Hawks is they lost both games to the Mavs last year. Both losses occurred before McMillian was hired. Atlanta is 18-4 ATS its last 22 games as a home favorite. It’s a small number tonight. Lay it! Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-21-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHARLOTTE Charlotte, despite having a better record than Florida Atlantic, is a touchdown underdog at home on Thursday. The 49ers’ only losses were by 9 pts to Georgia State and by 10 points to Illinois. Both of those losses occurred out on the road. They’ve won all three home games, including an upset of Duke in the opener. Two weeks ago saw them go to Florida International and win 45-33. Florida Atlantic is the road team in this one and they are 0-3 in that role this year. All three losses have been by 17 points or more. Now the teams the Owls have traveled to face - Florida, Air Force and UAB - are all pretty good. But they only scored 35 points in those games. Charlotte has covered the last four times these teams have played. We won’t go so far as to say they’ll win Thursday night, but we like them plus the points. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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10-20-21 | Rockets +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 106-124 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON The Houston Rockets are not expected to be all that competitive for the 2021-22 season. Most prognostications have them and Oklahoma City as the likely two worst teams in the Western Conference. But should Minnesota, another team that’s not very good, be laying this many points in a season opener? Probably not. The Timberwolves have made the playoffs only once since 2003-04. While they did improve some after a coaching change, they still ranked near the bottom of the league defensively last year. They brought some new pieces to help them on the defensive end, but the problem is those players are liabilities at the offensive end. Other than Karl-Anthony Towns, there just aren’t many good two-way players on this roster. The T’wolves were only favored in 11 games last season and lost five of them. Their scoring differential when favored was only +1.5 per game. So they are not a team you’d want to lay points with. Houston is young and basically playing with “house money” coming into the new season. They had a winning (ATS) record as a road underdog last season and are capable of pulling the upset here. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEA So no Russell Wilson for Seattle. But are people really willing to lay this many points with a Pittsburgh team everyone was writing off two weeks ago? Before beating Denver 27-19 last week, the Steelers had lost three in a row and not scored 17 points in any of the games. They aren’t a good team by any means. In the win over Denver, JuJu Smith-Schuster was lost to a season-ending injury. So that makes the offense even worse. The Seahawks’ offense obviously takes a massive hit without Wilson. But remember that Geno Smith, the first QB other than Wilson to start for Seattle since 2011, did drive the field for a TD when he had to come in last Thursday. Getting the mini-bye is a big assist to Smith, who is 5-0 ATS his L5 games as a starter. The Seahawks are 16-8 ATS under Pete Carroll as an underdog of four or more points. The last five times Pittsburgh has been favored, they have lost the game. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-17-21 | Chargers +2.5 v. Ravens | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -102 | 45 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAC The Chargers look like a good team this year. They are 4-1 straight up and ATS. They are 8-1 ATS L9 games, going back to 2020. They lead the AFC West after coming back to beat Cleveland 47-42 last week. They had a season-high 500+ yards in the game. The Chargers’ only loss was to Dallas on a last second field goal. QB Herbert seems like the real deal. He is fourth in passing yards and third in touchdowns. Now LA faces Baltimore, who is on a short week. The Ravens needed a wild comeback of their own to beat the Colts 31-25 on Monday night. It was their fourth win in a row, but third by six points or less. The other two were by a combined three points. They just as easily could be 1-4 straight up and we’d be having a much different conversation here. The Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road underdogs, 5-2 with Herbert as the quarterback. We will go with the better team getting points. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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10-17-21 | Dolphins v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE After going 0-3 with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback, Miami will welcome Tua Tagovailoa back on Sunday. At least it looks that way. Coach Brian Flores said “if all goes well” in Friday’s practice, Tua will get the start. This next game comes in London against the 0-5 Jaguars. The matchup coupled with a potential Tua return has to have Dolphins fans thinking this is one where they end their losing streak. But they’ve been as bad as anybody this year, getting outscored by 76 points the last four weeks. The ‘Fins do have a worse scoring differential than the Jaguars this year. Speaking of losing streaks, the Jags have dropped 20 in a row going back to Week 1 of last year. They too look at this matchup as the one where they can end the streak. They are desperate and looking at the next couple weeks, we don’t see a game as “winnable” as this one for the Jags. Maybe leaving the country is what they need! Urban Meyer is certainly looking for a “vacation” after his rough last couple of weeks. Though they did lose on the scoreboard 37-19, Jacksonville ended up outgaining Tennessee last week and put up a season-high 454 total yards. Miami should not be favored against anyone, not even the Jags. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
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10-16-21 | Louisiana Tech v. UTEP +7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTEP UTEP is 5-1, which is their best record in ages. The Miners lone loss came at Boise State. Since then they have beaten New Mexico, Old Dominion and Southern Miss while covering the spread in every game. They are home underdogs this week to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs had last week off. A quick note about their season - all five games have been decided by seven points or less. So we wouldn’t want to be caught laying so many points with them on the road. The wins came against SE Louisiana and North Texas. The defense is giving up almost 475 yards/game. UTEP’s defense barely allows more than 300. It’s that defense that will give Dana Dimel’s team the chance to pull the upset this week. At the very least, UTEP stays within the number. They were 3-0 ATS as a double digit dog vs. Conference USA opponents last year. The spread isn’t quite that high here. But this game means a lot to UTEP as they’ve lost eight straight times to La Tech despite outgaining them in half those games. La Tech is only 1-4 ATS the previous five times they have been favored. Play on UTEP AAA |
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10-16-21 | Kentucky +23 v. Georgia | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY It’s another big time showdown in the SEC this week as #11 Kentucky takes on #1 Georgia. Both schools are 6-0 and the last unbeatens in the conference. But the oddsmakers clearly see this as a mismatch with UK being installed as a pretty massive underdog. The spread here is even larger than when Georgia hosted Arkansas two weeks ago and won 37-0. The Razorbacks were ranked #8 going into that game. But we expect the Wildcats to do better than the Hogs did in Athens. This is Georgia’s third straight game against a Top 20 opponent. That can wear on even the best teams. What’s impressive is that the Bulldogs beat both Arkansas and Auburn with their backup QB (Stetson Bennett) under center. Georgia’s defense is obviously great. But so is Kentucky’s, which allows just 17.5 points and 305 yards per contest. In what figures to be a relatively low-scoring affair, taking the big number just seems like a no-brainer. The Wildcats are probably the best offensive team that Georgia has faced. So we expect them to be the first team to score more than 14 points on the ‘Dawgs this season. That’ll be enough to cover. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-16-21 | Ball State v. Eastern Michigan +1.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 9* on EASTERN MICHIGAN Ball State’s season did not get off to a good start as they were 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread through four games. But the Cardinals are coming off two straight upsets, one over Army and the other over Western Michigan. Both wins were very impressive as they won by 12 and 25 and were a double digit dog for each game. This week they are a slight favorite at Eastern Michigan. Ball State has not been favored since Week 1 when they played Western Illinois. Eastern Michigan is 4-2 with its only losses coming on the road. One was at Wisconsin and the other was at Northern Illinois and featured a long delay. We like the home team in this Saturday MAC matchup. Eastern Michigan won a low-scoring game last week, 13-12 against Miami, and should keep the BSU offense in check. There have been three games this year where the Cardinals did not score more than 13 points. Last week saw them get to 45, but it definitely helped to get four turnovers from Western Michigan. One was a fumble that BSU returned for a touchdown. Two others set the offense up on a short field. Eastern Michigan rarely has a bad game in conference play and we like them to win Saturday. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State -4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN STATE We will continue to take Michigan State until the oddsmakers finally “catch up” and realize just how good Mel Tucker’s team really is. Sparty is now 6-0 following the 31-13 beatdown they handed Rutgers last week. We laid the points in that one and will do the same again here against Indiana. Last week, we said “that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home.” That obviously turned out to be the case. Tucker’s team has been way more explosive than anticipated, averaging 36.7 points/game. There’s been only one game where they failed to score more than 30. They have the nation’s leading rusher in Kenneth Walker III. Indiana is a disappointing 2-3 with one of the wins coming by only two points over Western Kentucky. The Hoosiers are 0-2 in the Big 10 having been outscored 58-6 by Iowa and Penn State. They also lost by 14 at home to Cincinnati. Those were all ranked teams. There’s no shame in losing to a Top 25 team, but the problem here for IU is that Sparty comes in ranked #10. QB Michael Penix Jr may also be out for the Hoosiers. Michigan State has covered six in a row as a road favorite. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-15-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse +13.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE Clemson laying two scores on the road? No thanks. Since winning the National Championship in Jan of ‘19, the Tigers are just 5-13 against the spread. They have failed to cover every game going back to last season’s playoff loss to Ohio State. Their three wins this year came against South Carolina State (FCS), Georgia Tech (14-8 as 27.5 point favorites) and Boston College (19-13 as 14.5 point favorites). Other than the game vs. South Carolina State, the Clemson offense has scored just 50 regulation points all season. Syracuse has already pulled one big upset here at the Carrier Dome this season. They handed Liberty their only loss back on 9/24 in what was also a Friday night game. They almost pulled another upset last week, but eventually fell in overtime to unbeaten Wake Forest. Two of the Orange’s three defeats have been by three points and none have been by greater than 10 points. Go with the underdog in this ACC matchup. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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10-14-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB Tampa Bay comes in at 4-1 SU, but just 2-3 against the spread. Philadelphia is 2-3 both SU and ATS. The Buccaneers are clearly the better team in this matchup as they are averaging 33.4 points/game while only giving up an average of 24.4. The Eagles give up a similar number of points/game (24.8) but their problem is they score far fewer (23.0). We just don’t see the Eagles having enough firepower to stay within a touchdown against a team like Tampa. The Eagles were down 15-3 to Carolina in the second half last week before a late rally earned them the upset win. They didn’t go ahead until less than three minutes were left in the game. The Bucs pretty much led start to finish against the Dolphins last week on their way to an eventual 45-17 win where they had no problem covering the double digit spread. We’d say the Bucs have faced two bad teams thus far - Miami and Atlanta. They won both games by 23 or more points. The Eagles are a bad team. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-11-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IND Home teams are 4-0 ATS so far on Monday Night Football. But this is kind of a big number that the Ravens are laying this week. The Colts being 1-3 shouldn’t be that surprising. They’ve been the underdog in all four games. Baltimore has been an underdog twice, so they should be celebrating a 3-1 record to this point. But two of their wins have come by a total of three points. That means they could easily be 1-3, just like the Colts, coming into tonight. Last week was Baltimore’s best performance of the year but it came against a Denver team that was down to its backup QB. Indianapolis also beat a backup QB last week for its first win. Carson Wentz gets a lot of criticism, but hasn’t really played all that badly. He’s thrown five touchdowns and only one interception. The Ravens are 0-2 ATS when favored this year and those two games saw them lose to the Raiders and barely defeat the winless Lions. It seems like they may be a little preoccupied with setting a new NFL record for most consecutive games with 100 or more yards rushing. They can make it 44 straight tonight, which would be the new record. But they haven’t been that effective in running the ball the past two games. Maybe a stubbornness to run keeps this game close? Indy is 10-2 ATS the past 12 meetings with the Ravens and 6-1 here in Baltimore. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game all year. Play on INDIANAPOLIS AAA |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -120 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC The sky was falling in Kansas City last week. The Chiefs were 1-2 with a defense that seemingly couldn’t stop anybody. That defense remains a question mark, but the offense scored a touchdown on all but one possession last week and the Chiefs beat the Eagles 42-30. Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes. The team has scored 33 points in three of its four games. It’s a big test this week at home vs. Buffalo in the Sunday Night game. But keep two things in mind. One is that the Chiefs were 2-0 vs. the Bills last year. The second win came in the AFC Championship Game. The Bills, who are obviously thinking revenge, have looked as good as any team in the league the last three weeks. But the second thing to keep in mind is just how rare it is to get Mahomes as this short of a favorite. He is 9-1-1 ATS in his career when not favored by more than a field goal. Depending where the line closes, this could be the first time at home in his career that he’s not favored by at least three points. As impressive as the Bills have looked in those last three games, it’s been all bad teams they’ve played. We like the Chiefs. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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10-10-21 | Giants +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-44 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NYG Dallas is the only 4-0 ATS team. But we know all about how the Giants do when priced as road underdogs. They are 18-4 against the spread in the role since 2018. QB Jones is 10-2 ATS as a road dog, even though he’s won just three of those games straight up. This just has the feel of a close NFC East game. The Cowboys did cover as short favorites in each of the last two games. But they are still only 3-6 ATS as favorites since the start of last season, including 2-5 at home. Each of the Giants' previous three games have been decided by six points or fewer. Their last two losses were by one and four points. We were impressed by Jones last week. He had his first 400 yard day as a pro and that was against a good Saints defense. In two road games, the Giants’ offense has averaged 28 points. That should be enough to at least cover this week. The G-men’s reputation as a road underdog speaks for itself. Play on NY GIANTS AAA |
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10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA They gave the game away last week, but we cannot see Atlanta losing again. Not to a Jets team that scored more points last week than they did in the first three games combined. Maybe heading across the Atlantic Ocean is what the Falcons need right now. They are 1-3 and really in need of a win. Two weeks ago, we said the Falcons would win and they did - beating the Giants 17-14. The Jets beat Tennessee in overtime last week, but it can’t be forgotten how poorly they looked in the first three games. Atlanta should have made it two wins in a row last week, but blew a late lead to Washington at home. They allowed the game-winning touchdown in the final minute of regulation. The Falcons should get to five wins this year. This is one of the games their fanbase had to have circled as a win. With Calvin Ridley not making the trip, expect to see a healthy dose of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson. We trust Matt Ryan more than we do Jets rookie Zach Wilson. This is not a true road game, but the Jets are 2-8 ATS L10 games away from home. Favorites are 17-11 ATS in these London games. The Falcons need this one badly. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-09-21 | New Mexico +19.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW MEXICO After starting 2-0, New Mexico has lost three in a row. They were blown out in two of the three losses, once by Texas A&M and then last Saturday by Air Force. The Lobos are just one of three 0-5 ATS teams in the country, the others being Clemson and Missouri. They are getting a lot of points this week at San Diego State, who is ranked for the first time in two years. It’s also just the second time in the past 40 years that the Aztecs have gotten off to a 4-0 start. They are ranked because of that 4-0 start, but good luck convincing us that this is one of the 25 best teams in the country. Triple overtime was needed to get by Utah three weeks ago. That was a game where SDSU got outgained 327-248. Their passing game has been pretty much non-existent. New Mexico’s defensive coordinator Rocky Long knows SDSU well. He was their head coach up until 2020. We don’t think the underdog is going to win Saturday night, but they will cover the spread for the first time in 2021. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-09-21 | Michigan -3.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN Michigan is 5-0 and playing good fundamentally sound football. They were last week’s top pick when they went to Wisconsin and laid it on the Badgers 38-17. Can you believe they were underdogs in that one? The Wolverines have yet to surrender more than 17 points in any game and have turned the ball over just one time. This week they are at Nebraska, who has covered the number five straight weeks and is off a 56-7 win. Our view is that this is a great time to sell high on the Cornhuskers. None of the teams they have beaten - Fordham, Buffalo or Northwestern - are any good. Neither is Illinois, the first team they lost to this year. We faded the ‘Huskers there in what ended up being a 30-22 loss as 6.5-point road favorites. They did come close at Oklahoma and Michigan State, but ultimately failed. This line should be closer to a touchdown. Be aware that Nebraska almost always loses the close ones as they are 5-15 straight up in one score games under Scott Frost. We definitely see Michigan winning this one by more than a field goal. In its three losses this year, Nebraska has been held to an average of less than 20 points. Michigan will score at least 30 Saturday night and move to 6-0. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-09-21 | Middle Tennessee State v. Liberty -19.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LIBERTY Two teams coming off upset victories are playing here as Liberty hosts Middle Tennessee. The difference is that last week was the first time Liberty had been a dog in 2021. MTSU has been a dog against every FBS team they have faced. Here is no different as the oddsmakers don’t believe in the Blue Raiders at all. We don’t either. All three of their losses have been on the road and Liberty might just be the best team they’ve faced so far. The Flames going to UAB last weekend and winning 36-12 really caught our eye. They put up nearly 550 total yards of offense. Liberty’s lone loss came in the Carrier Dome and that was a game where they had the edge in total yards. This defense is giving up just 266.4 yards/game, so expect MTSU to struggle to move the ball here. Against the two toughest teams they have faced, Virginia Tech and UTSA, the Blue Raiders were held to just 14 and 13 points. We expect them to score a similar number this Saturday afternoon. Syracuse was the only team to score more than 17 on Liberty thus far. So it’s up to the Flames’ offense to turn this into a blowout. Considering MTSU is allowing over 30 points/game vs. FBS teams, something like a 40-14 final, sounds pretty logical here. You may not know that Liberty is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games with the two losses coming by four total points. This is a good team! Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State -5 v. Rutgers | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICH STATE Michigan State being 5-0 probably comes as a bit of a surprise to most. Twice they’ve gone on the road and pulled “upsets.” The word upsets is in quotes because those wins came at Northwestern and Miami FL, two teams we now know aren’t very good. So we’re not surprised Sparty is 5-0 coming into this weekend’s game at Rutgers. What we are a bit surprised about is the fact the offense is averaging 37.8 points/game. A close call over Nebraska, a game which went to OT ironically, was the only time they haven’t exceeded that average. Rutgers, on the other hand, has been held to 17 points or less in three of its last four games. The Scarlet Knights are coming off losses to Michigan and Ohio State the past two weeks. Like MSU, they are 4-1 ATS. Last week marked the first time Greg Schiano’s team did not cover as they were blown out 52-13 in Columbus. The defense gave up 541 yards and the team was down 45-6 at half. Don’t expect Michigan State to take it easy on them. Sparty has revenge for a 38-27 loss in 2020 where it turned the ball over seven times. Our view is that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home. Lay it! Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-08-21 | Temple v. Cincinnati -28.5 | Top | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is 4-0 and ranked #5 in the country. The Bearcats went into Notre Dame last week and defeated the Fighting Irish 24-13 as 2.5 point favorites. We think it says a lot about where this program is at right now that they were favored to win in South Bend. They also covered in Indiana as favorites three weeks ago. It’s a much easier game this week as Luke Fickell’s team returns to Nippert Stadium to take on 3-2 Temple. The Owls pulled out an upset last week at home, coming back from 17 down to beat Memphis 34-31. That was a real shocker when you look and see the Owls were 11 point underdogs. Temple won only one game in 2020, so they’ve already surpassed last year’s win total. The spread here is large, but not without justification as both of Temple’s losses were by 25 or more points and those came against Rutgers and BC. The Owls are 0-4 ATS off an ATS win. Cincinnati has won 22 straight at home, the last loss coming to Temple back in 2017. The coaching staff will be sure to remind the players of that last home loss and we like the Bearcats to make another statement in front of a national TV audience. They led ND 17-0 last week. Here, they will not take their foot off the gas pedal. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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10-07-21 | Houston -5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 40-22 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston (4-1) couldn’t have asked for a better start to last week’s game at Tulsa, which was also a weeknight affair. The Cougars scored on each of their opening three possessions to take a 21-0 lead less than a minute into the fourth quarter. That made it four straight wins since a loss to Texas Tech in the season opener. Now UH goes to Tulane, who is struggling at 1-4. The Green Wave have faced a pretty difficult schedule so far, including road trips to Oklahoma and Ole Miss. But there’s really no excuse for last week’s 52-29 setback at East Carolina. The Tulane defense is really struggling right now. They allowed 300 yards both passing and rushing against ECU. It was already the third time this year they gave up at least 40 points. Houston QB Clayton Tune has to be licking his chops here as he’s thrown for more than 250 yards/game over the previous four weeks. The Cougars offense should also be able to run all over Tulane. Houston’s defense has been stout, allowing only four touchdowns in the last four games. They have outscored teams 162-37 during the current win streak. Tulane has not led at any point in its last three games and has been outscored 141-71. Based on all this info, how can you not want to lay the points? Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 (money line) They won 106 regular season games with a near $300 million payroll. But the Dodgers have to win a one-game playoff to move on. They finished one game back of the Giants in the NL West. San Francisco had the best record in the majors. If LA wins Wednesday, then they will move on to face those Giants in the NLDS. But first they must concern themselves with a St. Louis team that’s won 19 of its last 22 games. It was an incredible run for St. Louis to get here but they are pretty clearly outclassed in this matchup. The Dodgers are 18-3 in their last 21 games and have won the last seven. So they are every bit as hot as St. Louis is, if not hotter. They’ve also been much better over the full regular season. Max Scherzer was an unbelievable midseason acquisition for LA as they’ve won all 11 of his starts since he came over, even the last two when he didn’t pitch all that well. Scherzer has a 2.46 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the full year. We understand that Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals has an 8-0 team start record his previous eight trips to the hill. But he did allow four runs the one time he faced the Dodgers. The last time Scherzer faced St. Louis, not only was it only an unearned run allowed in eight innings but he also had 13 strikeouts. The Dodgers have outscored teams by 1.8 runs/game at home, so we will gladly play the run line. Play LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NE For the first time ever, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be on opposite sidelines. There’s one team that Brady has never beaten in his career and that’s because he played for them for 20 seasons. Now he’s a visitor at Foxboro. His Buccaneers are coming off a loss, their first since Week 12 of last season. They were 5-0 ATS off a loss in the Super Bowl winning season, but they were a road favorite in just one of those five games. It was against Carolina, not a Bill Belichick coached team. It’s not a usual occurrence to see the Patriots getting this many points at Gillette Stadium. A defense that knows Brady well will keep this game close. Rob Gronkowski, another former Patriot, will miss this game. New England, a double digit loser to New Orleans in Week 3, is 4-0 the past four times they’ve been off a 10+ point loss at home. They are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games as a home underdog. We expect one of the most heavily hyped regular season games in years to be close. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GB Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers have faced off only twice in their Hall of Fame careers. One of them was a Super Bowl, won by Rodgers’ Packers. It’s unfortunate for Big Ben that the third all-time meeting takes place at this stage of the game. A Steelers offense that is averaging only 16.7 points/game has seen all three of its top receivers get hurt in 2021. Chase Claypool has already been ruled out for Sunday. Johnson and Smith-Schuster were non-factors last week, with Johnson sitting out. Both are expected to play this week, but Big Ben is averaging less than 10 yards per pass attempt. The Steelers are coming off two straight losses at home favorites. Up next is a Packers team that has won its previous two games. Rodgers has completed 75% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero interceptions in the pair of victories. Pittsburgh’s defense saw its streak of 75 straight games with a sack end last week. Their offensive struggles to protect the stationary Roethlisberger. Too many injuries for a suddenly bad Pittsburgh to overcome on the road. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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10-03-21 | Washington Football Team -1.5 v. Falcons | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Washington is one of three teams that has yet to cover a game against the spread. They lost to the Chargers as a 1.5 point favorite, beat the Giants 30-29 as four point favorites and then got blown out by the Bills. The problem has been their defense just hasn’t been as good as it was in 2020. But this week they’re up against Atlanta, a fellow 1-2 SU team whose offense ranks 29th in points and 27th in yards. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is averaging only 235.7 YPG, which is well off his career pace. Atlanta got its first win of 2021 last week, also by beating the Giants. That followed blowout losses to the Bucs and Eagles. We had Atlanta last week, but the Giants are easily one of the worst teams in the league. The Football Team’s front four is going to give Ryan problems all day. We think QB Heinicke has played pretty well so far for the Football Team. Well, maybe not last week, but he had a 300+ yard game against the Giants and that was better than Ryan did last week. This is a homecoming for Heinicke as he grew up in the Atlanta era. We think he’s the guy to end Washington’s six-game losing streak to Atlanta. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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10-03-21 | Colts v. Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI The winless Colts take on the 1-2 Dolphins in a matchup of disappointing teams. But Miami, even without Tua Tagovailoa, made more than a decent accounting for itself last week in Las Vegas. They took an early 14-0 lead, then forced the Raiders into overtime. While it ended up being a second straight loss for the ‘Fins, at least they left with the cash as underdogs. Miami has the best cover percentage in the NFL these last two seasons and key to that is a 6-0 ATS mark when coming off a loss. This week they return home where they’ve covered four straight times as favorites. Indianapolis is not playing well right now as last week’s nine point loss to the Titans marked the first time they weren’t down double digits in a game. We know that Miami has an injured QB and injured center, but the Colts are in worse shape with Carson Wentz playing on two injured ankles behind an offensive line that is even more banged up than what’s going on in Miami right now. This game means a lot to Dolphins QB Brissett as he is facing his former team. We don’t see how a team can go on the road with a QB dealing with two injured ankles and win. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 9* on BAYLOR We’ll have one less undefeated team in the Big 12 after Saturday as 4-0 Baylor meets 4-0 Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Both are off their biggest wins of the season. Baylor upset Iowa State 31-29 in Waco. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State 31-20 here in its conference opener. Baylor has won two Big 12 games as it also went on the road and destroyed Kansas 45-7. OSU is much luckier to be 4-0 on the year as their first three wins were by a total of 13 points. Two of those three wins required comebacks. Baylor has beaten OSU in six of the last nine years but has revenge for an awful 42-3 loss at the end of last year when the game was rescheduled due to COVID-19 and the Bears probably didn’t care. So we will grab the points with what we feel has been the superior outfit to this point. The Cowboys have not scored a single second half point in the last two games. Baylor is on an 11-3-1 ATS run as underdogs. OK State has covered only one of its last five as home favorites. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FSU How rare is it that 0-4 Florida State is favored over a Power 5 team with a winning record? This is the first time this situation has presented itself since 1988! Everything has gone wrong so far for the Seminoles as they’ve dropped three one score games. Syracuse is coming off a big upset at home against Liberty. It really does speak volumes that the oddsmakers still think FSU is the better team here. We’re with them and will lay the points. The Orange were a one-win team last season. They are 0-6 SU in ACC road openers. They are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS at FSU. Besides upsetting Liberty, the other two wins this year were against Albany and Ohio. If FSU can cut down on the turnovers (they have 11 so far) then they can turn things around. Those six home wins over Syracuse have been by an average of 26 points/game. Mike Norvell gets his 1st win of the year by a margin greater than the spread. Play on FSU AAA |
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10-02-21 | Michigan +2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN Much will be made of the fact Michigan did not score in the second half last week against Rutgers. But despite that, and being slightly outgained, the Wolverines still won the game 20-13 and are 4-0. They have not turned the ball over once and lead the nation in rushing. They are simply better than an underachieving Wisconsin team that has only put up 10 and 13 points in losses to Penn State and Notre Dame. We patently disagree with Michigan being underdogs here. They’ve yet to allow more than 14 points in any game. The Wolverines are ranked 14th in the country and Wisconsin has lost seven straight to ranked opponents. The Badgers just don’t take good care of the football. They have nine turnovers in three games, five coming last week. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS the last eight times it has been favored and is 0-5 ATS its last five conference games. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-02-21 | Toledo -27 v. UMass | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO Toledo is 2-2. That’s a slight disappointment as they were double digit favorites in a loss to Colorado State. But the other loss saw them take Notre Dame down to the wire in South Bend. This week, the Rockets travel to face one of the worst teams in the country, UMass. The Minutemen have lost every game by at least 14 points. They have been underdogs of more than 35 points in three of the four games. A home game vs. Eastern Michigan, another MAC team, was the exception. Toledo is better than EMU, who could only win here by 14. The Rockets averaged 6.2 yards per rush last week against Ball State. The only time this Toledo defense has allowed more than 22 points was Notre Dame. Take away a special teams touchdown by Colorado State and the defense has “really” allowed 15 points or less three times. UMass is off a 50 point loss to Coastal Carolina. They scored only three points and it was their 15th straight loss. They are 1-19 SU L20 games and only covered six times. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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10-01-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH +1.5 (RUN LINE) At the most critical point of the season, Boston is not playing like a team that wants to be a part of the postseason. They just lost two of three to a Baltimore team that has the worst record in the American League. That leaves them tied for the second Wild Card (with Seattle) and a game in front of Toronto. The Red Sox also got swept by the Yankees last weekend at Fenway Park. The final series of the regular season will be in an unfamiliar place, the Nation’s capital, as they take on the Nationals. Given Boston’s sudden inability to score runs, we will take the home team +1.5 on the run line. As far as the schedule is concerned, Washington has a slight edge heading into tonight’s opener as they were off on Thursday. They’re also going to have Jesse Rogers on the hill and he has given up no more than three runs in any of his five starts. He has a 0.84 WHIP at home. Boston goes with Eduardo Rodriguez. They’ve lost three of his last four starts and truthfully he’s not pitched as well as his 18-12 TSR for the year might indicate. The Red Sox have dropped five of their last seven series openers while the Nationals are 9-0 in their L9 interleague home games. Play WASHINGTON +1.5 AAA |
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09-30-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Dodgers have had no problems beating up on the Padres lately. They’ve taken the past eight head to head encounters, including an 11-9 thriller last night. It should be no trouble at all winning this game by two or more runs. Six of those previous eight wins against San Diego have been by that margin or greater. Wednesday’s win kept the Dodgers two games back of the Giants in the NL West and still alive in the race for homefield advantage. So they’ve got something to play for. San Diego does not as a terrible second half has left them below .500 for the season, something no one would have imagined at the start of 2021. Injuries to the starting rotation got so bad that the team was forced to go out and sign Vince Velasquez to a minor league deal two weeks ago after he was released by Philadelphia. His three starts for San Diego have all been losses and his ERA is 9.00. It is scary to think what might happen to him here as he faces the highest scoring offense in the majors. The Padres won’t get the chances they did last night. The Dodgers blew a 5-1 lead by committing a couple errors. Tony Gonsolin has only allowed one run in three career starts vs. the Padres and has yet to allow more than three runs in any start this year. Play on LOS ANGELES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI FL Quarterback is a question mark for Miami coming into the ACC opener vs. Virginia. D’Eriq King is still dealing with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss last week’s game vs. Central Connecticut State. However, the combination of Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia led the Hurricanes to 69 points and 739 yards. You’re probably saying “well, look at who they were playing.” Yes, it’s true those numbers came against a FCS team. But Virginia’s defense might not be much better. It gave up nearly 700 yards in a 59-39 loss to North Carolina, then it allowed 473 in a 37-17 loss to Wake Forest last Thursday. This is the third straight year that the Cavaliers are visiting Hard Rock Stadium. The offense put up only 9 and 14 points in a pair of losses the last two seasons. Now they’re going to score more than that here. Their QB Brennan Armstrong has been very good. But not good enough to overcome a terrible defense. Miami is getting back RB Jaylan Knighton from a four-game suspension. Virginia has not been a good road team the last few seasons. If King plays for Miami, just consider that a huge bonus. The Canes will cover the number no matter who is in at quarterback. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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09-30-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 130 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) Baltimore has lost 13 of the last 15 times they’ve played Boston. But one of the two wins came in the opener of this series, 4-2 on Tuesday. The Red Sox struck back with a 6-0 win last night, which ended a four-game losing streak. The Orioles have been more competitive than usual over the past week, winning three of the last six games. They have been relegated to the role of spoiler in this AL Wild Card race and would like nothing more than to help knock Boston out of the playoffs. The Red Sox aren’t nearly as good on the road where they are just 39-37 and scoring 4.3 runs/game. They allow that same number of runs per game, so we give the O’s a chance to steal another one tonight. At the very least, they’ll keep the game within a run. The Red Sox are 1-5 in Nick Pivetta’s last six starts and he’s pitched better than usual of late. Pivetta has never lost to Baltimore, but his ERA in four starts against them this year is 4.15. Alexander Wells is still looking for his first win after eight starts and the good news is he’s coming off the best one since his season debut. There’s a lot of pressure on Boston right now with two teams within a game of them for that second Wild Card. Might they crack? Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 101 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GB Things were looking pretty dicey for Green Bay Monday night. They’d been blown out 38-3 by New Orleans in the opener, then trailed at the half to Detroit at home. But Aaron Rodgers, as he’s wont to do, took over in the second half and made the skepticism look foolish. The Packers now get a favorable matchup against a banged-up 49ers team Sunday night. Green Bay has covered four of the last five times after playing on Monday Night Football. As a road underdog, Rodgers is on a 5-2 ATS run. San Francisco is 2-0 with road wins over Detroit and Philadelphia. Neither of those opponents are expected to be any good, so they should be 2-0. The problem is the last two times the Niners have played at home following back to back road games on the East Coast, they have lost outright. All five times they were favored at home last year, they failed to cover. But the biggest problem - even more than facing Rodgers - are the injuries. Running back is perilously thin with the only two available ball carries combining for just two carries for -1 yard this year. Missing CB Verrett seems problematic going against Rodgers. San Fran was outgained last week despite beating Philly 17-11. Green Bay’s defense held Detroit to zero points in the second half Monday night. The 49ers’ defense gave up more than 400 yards to the Lions. Grab the points. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks -1 v. Vikings | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -123 | 42 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Seattle is 1-1 after letting one slip away in the fourth quarter last week. They blew a 14-point lead to Tennessee and lost 33-30 in overtime. As crushing a defeat as that was for the Seahawks, it’s nothing compared to what the Vikings have experienced the first two weeks of the season. Mike Zimmer’s team is 0-2 with the losses coming by a total of four points. Both games came down to a field goal attempt on the final play. In Week 1, Dalvin Cook’s fumble led to a game-winner for Cincinnati in overtime. In Week 2, the Vikings’ kicker missed what would have been the game winner and it was a 34-33 loss to Arizona. Minnesota is now just 1-8 ATS its last nine games and had the second worst cover percentage in the league the last two seasons. Russell Wilson should carve up their porous secondary, throwing to Tyler Lockett, who is second in the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. The Seahawks are 7-0 vs. the Vikings with Wilson at QB including wins each of the last three seasons. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-26-21 | Falcons +3 v. Giants | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Here are two 0-2 teams that haven’t played particularly well. But the Giants tend to fall into a predictable pattern. They cover the spread when on the road, they fail to cover when at home. Last Thursday they improved to 17-5 ATS as road dogs, covering the number at Washington in a 30-29 loss. But this week they’re back home. The G-men are just 5-12 ATS in East Rutherford the last two seasons. They didn’t cover in the home opener, losing to Denver 27-13 as three-point dogs. This week they are laying points for the first time in 2021. We like the opportunity to take points against one of the worst teams in the league. This is the fifth consecutive season that New York has opened 0-2. Atlanta has struggled, but also played better than the score showed last week vs. Tampa Bay. Matt Ryan had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in the fourth quarter, resulting in a misleading 48-25. The Falcons, believe it or not, outgained the Bucs. Ryan, with his quick release, should not be bothered by an anemic Giants’ pass rush which far too often fails to get home. Saquon Barkley is pretty clearly not fully recovered from his ACL injury. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado +14.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-35 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Both Colorado and Arizona State are off losses. Colorado has lost its last two games and scored just seven points in doing so. But ASU is 0-3 ATS and one of the most penalized teams in the country, a bad combination when asked to lay double digits in a conference game. This spread should definitely be closer to one touchdown, not two. Herm Edwards’ Sun Devils started 2021 with Top 25 aspirations but those went out the window with last week’s poor showing against BYU. You would have thought BYU was in a bad situation as they were coming off an upset over rival Utah. But four ASU turnovers paved the way for the Cougars to make it two straight upsets over the Pac 12. Colorado’s offensive numbers from last week are going to scare a lot of bettors away but you’ve got to remember this team was very close to defeating Texas A&M two weeks ago. ASU is just 3-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-7 ATS at home since the start of 2019. Things can get pretty crazy “after dark” in the Pac 12. Why not here? Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NEBRASKA So Michigan State is 3-0, which is something that no one outside of East Lansing expected. Twice so far Sparty has gone off as the underdog. They won at Northwestern in the season opener and then at Miami FL last week. Not to diminish what Mel Tucker is accomplishing here but Northwestern isn’t very good and Miami shot itself in the foot with two fourth quarter turnovers that turned a close 17-14 game into a 38-17 blowout. Sparty finished +4 in turnovers, which was the difference in a game where the number of total yards gained by the two teams was essentially even. The public now seems to have fallen in love with MSU as they are laying a short number at home to two-loss Nebraska. But the Cornhuskers should have beaten Illinois in the opener and then fared much better than expected last week against Oklahoma. They only lost 23-16 despite being 22.5 point underdogs to the #4 ranked team in the country. Since the opening week loss, QB Martinez has turned it over only one time and that was an incredible interception by Oklahoma’s D.J. Graham last week inside the 10-yard line. Had it not been for that play and a blocked XP that was returned for two points, the Cornhuskers could have beaten the Sooners. Nebraska has covered five of the last six times it has been off a loss and they are 8-1 ATS the L9 games vs. Michigan State. This will be the first time this year the Spartans are favored to beat an FBS opponent. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Grab the points. Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on KANSAS STATE Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has outscored opponents by only 13 points. They held on to beat Missouri State 23-16, barely escaped Tulsa and then won by one point at Boise State. The 28-23 win against Tulsa required three fourth quarter touchdowns. Boise State was another fourth quarter comeback as the Cowboys scored two touchdowns in the final 2:10 to win 21-20. Given all those close calls, we will gladly grab the points with Kansas State this week. The Wildcats are also 3-0 and now find themselves in the Top 25. They’ve beaten Stanford 24-7, Southern Illinois 31-23 and Nevada 38-17. Along the way they did lose QB Skylar Thompson to injury. But what’s key to winning this game is the Wildcats’ ability to stop the run. Their defense is giving up just 1.9 yards per rush attempt. OSU likes to run the ball, but probably won’t be too successful this week. Kansas State is 13-4 ATS in this rivalry going back to 1998. They’ve also done a great job covering the spread as underdogs. They are on a 44-22-1 ATS run when taking points. Oklahoma State has not covered any of the last four times it’s been favored in Stillwater. Grab those points. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa -23 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is looking very good this season. They’ve climbed up to #5 in the polls, its highest ranking in nearly six years. Kirk Ferentz’s defense has led the way by giving up only 30 points total in three games. Keep in mind they’ve already beaten two ranked P5 teams, Indiana and Iowa State, and did so convincingly. Here’s something else to consider - the Hawkeyes’ defense has scored the same number of touchdowns that it has allowed this season. That would be three. They also registered a safety last week against Kent State, which allowed them to cover the spread for the third consecutive game. This week they host a Colorado State team that’s 1-2 and averaging only 22 points despite facing Toledo, Vanderbilt and South Dakota State. After losing their first two games, both as favorites, the Rams beat Toledo 22-6 despite never scoring an offensive TD. They will struggle mightily on offense in this game. Perhaps we all should have seen Iowa coming now that they’ve won nine straight games overall and 14 straight non-conference games. The offense may not be as good as the defense but has gone over 24 points every time during the nine-game run. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game since 2018. Including last week, Iowa has covered three of the last four times it has been a favorite of 20 or more. Colorado State has never faced them before and will likely still wish that was the case after Saturday. The home team can name the score here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas -7.5 | Top | 35-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Most of the recent Texas-Texas Tech clashes have come down to the wire. We don’t think this one will. Even with all the close calls, like last year’s somewhat miraculous 63-56 win in overtime, the Longhorns have managed to still take 15 of the last 18 meetings from the Red Raiders. They’ve also won four straight Big 12 openers. This is the first conference game of 2021 for both teams. Texas Tech is the one that comes in unbeaten as they are 3-0 for the first time since 2017. But that’s what you’d expect them to be given who they’ve played (Houston, Stephen F Austin and FIU). The Red Raiders run defense has been stout against the inferior competition, but here you’ve got a Texas team that just ran the ball for over 400 yards last week against Rice. That was a much needed effort after the ‘Horns were corralled by Arkansas two weeks ago. But it turns out that Arkansas is pretty good. Losing to them 40-21 put a dent in Texas’ reputation but we still think they have a Top 25 team in Austin. The Longhorns allowed only 284 total yards in the 58-0 win over Rice last Saturday. Texas Tech has not won a true road game since 2019 and is just 1-9 SU in them under Matt Wells. This should be a double digit spread. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Push | 0 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIDDLE TENNESSEE Middle Tennessee is 1-2 with both losses coming on the road to FBS opponents. They opened 2021 by defeating Monmouth, an FCS school, 50-15 as 8.5 point favorites. But then came losses at Virginia Tech and UTSA, neither of which saw the Blue Raiders cover. Now those are two good teams they faced. Both are much better than the team they face this week. Charlotte started 2-0 but then lost last week at Georgia State. The 49ers could only score nine points, making you wonder what they did to deserve to be favored this week. They did upset Duke in the very first game, 31-28 as a 6.5 point pup. But they did give up 580 yards in that win. The other win for Charlotte came against Gardner-Webb, another FCS team. While this is the first time since 2009 that Middle Tennessee has had to play three straight games on the road, we predicted them to finish ahead of Charlotte in the Conference USA East Division. Therefore, an opportunity to take points is something we don’t dare pass up. These schools did not face off last season because of COVID. But MTSU has won four of the last five meetings. Play on MIDDLE TENNESSEE AAA |
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09-21-21 | Pirates v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CIN -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Reds are 11-3 against the Pirates this year. They beat them 9-5 on Monday. So we’ve got no hesitation about playing the run line today as the home team should once again easily win by two or more runs. Pittsburgh, as you know, is one of the worst teams. They actually did lead 5-0 early on yesterday, but from there it was all Reds, who scored the game’s final nine runs. There was an 85-minute rain delay, so maybe that’s why Cincinnati started slow out of the gate. What we do know is that Pittsburgh probably won’t score five runs again tonight. They have the lowest run total of any team. They put up only 3.4 per game on the road where they are now 22-53. Tyler Mahle, who is tied with Wade Miley for the team lead in wins on the Reds’ staff, is 3-0 vs. the Pirates this year with a 1.47 ERA. Making today’s starting pitching matchup even less favorable for the visitors is that Mitch Keller is 0-3 with a 7.86 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. The previous series that these teams played saw all four games decided by one run. So the odds of that happening again are pretty small. The Reds are three games behind a Cardinals team that has won nine straight for the second Wild Card. They need to rack up wins. Play on CINCINNATI -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-20-21 | Lions +11.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DET Even against the Lions, this is too many points for the Packers to lay in a battle of 0-1 NFC North teams. Did you see how awful the Pack looked in Week 1? They got thumped 38-3 by a Saints team that just got blown out by Carolina yesterday. The game wasn’t even in New Orleans as it got moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. It got so ugly that Aaron Rodgers was pulled from the game. The Packers ran only 15 times for 43 yards, so there wasn’t much help for the reigning MVP. The defense allowed Jameis Winston to throw five touchdown passes. Compare that to yesterday when the Saints gained just 128 yards and didn’t score until the fourth quarter. Detroit at least covered the spread in their season opener. That was thanks to a late rally against San Francisco. The offense did gain 430 yards and if it can come anywhere close to that tonight, then they will again cover the spread. The Lions have covered six of the last seven times they’ve faced the Packers and three of the last four times they’ve lost to them, the game was decided by no more than seven points. With it still being early in the season, Detroit is going to play hard for its first year coach Dan Campbell. How can you lay double digits with Green Bay after last week’s performance? Play on DETROIT AAA |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City came from behind to defeat Cleveland 32-29 in Week 1. Baltimore blew a lead and lost 33-27 in Las Vegas. This is a short week for the Ravens as that game in LV was Monday night. They were seven seconds away from winning in regulation but that was ripped away from them. Then came a wild overtime that left them deflated. Few teams have already endured the amount of injuries the Ravens have. Already eight players have landed on the IR. Facing Patrick Mahomes is never easy when fully healthy. Baltimore is anything but right now. Lamar Jackson has never beaten Mahomes before. The Ravens defense looks questionable right now. Are they really going to fix their defensive issues on a short week against the MVP? We say “no.” Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have averaged 31.3 points in three previous wins over the Ravens. Jackson has a sub-55 percent completion rate in his three games vs. the Chiefs. Andy Reid has won 70% of the time in his coaching career when having the rest advantage. Mahomes is 16-8-1 ATS on the road his career. Love the idea of getting to lay such a short number with the best team in the AFC. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-19-21 | Titans v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Two weeks in a row we’re going against Tennessee. It worked pretty well last week, didn’t it? The Titans got blitzed out of the box, were down 17-0 before they knew it and ended up losing 38-13 at home to the Arizona Cardinals. We didn’t even need those points we took with the Cards. Now it’s the Titans who are underdogs. We just don’t see them staying with the Seahawks in Seattle. So much of what we wrote about Tennessee last week rang true. The offense just isn’t going to be able to match last season’s numbers even with WR Julio Jones in the fold. There’s a lot of tread on the tires of Derrick Henry and he was held to 58 yards on 17 carries by the Cardinals. It just so happens that Seattle’s defense just held Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor to almost identical numbers - 56 yards on 17 carries. The Titans’ offensive line gave up six sacks to the Cardinals while the Seahawks sacked Carson Wentz constantly in Week 1. But worst of all for the Titans is that their defense looked every bit as bad as it did in 2020. They allowed over 400 yards and it was another game with 30 or more points allowed, something they did eight times last season. The Titans were 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage in 2020. Wilson will carve them up much the same way he did another AFC South team last week. He threw four touchdown passes in a 28-16 win over Indianapolis. The Seahawks led the game by double digits the entire second half. Everyone knows this is one of the stronger homefield edges in the NFL. Considering what Kyler Murray was able to do to the Titans, Wilson is likely to do the same. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-19-21 | Rams -3.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA RAMS The Rams looked very impressive Sunday night when they beat the Bears 34-14 as a nine-point favorite. New QB Matt Stafford looked right at home in Sean McVay’s offense as the former Lion threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Stafford could be in line for another 300-plus yard day this week, or at least close to that, when he faces a Colts secondary that just gave up four touchdown passes to Russell Wilson. In sharp contrast to the Rams, Indy looked bad in a 28-16 opening week loss. Carson Wentz, not long removed from foot surgery, was a sitting duck behind an offensive line that played poorly. The Rams have Aaron Donald so Wentz is likely to be under duress yet again this week. Worth noting is that the Colts have never covered in four previous tries as a home underdog under Frank Reich. McVay is 8-3 straight up and against the spread as a favorite of -3.5 to -9.5. You’ve got to be careful not to overreact to one week, but the Rams looked really good in Week 1 and the Colts simply did not. The Rams have also been a really good road team during McVay’s time here, winning 23 of 34 games. They have been perfect in road openers the last four years averaging over 30 points/game. Lay it! Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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09-18-21 | Auburn +5.5 v. Penn State | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Auburn There are just two matchups of Top 25 teams on Saturday’s docket. One of them is #1 Alabama taking on #11 Florida, a game where most will be picking the same side to win. Later on, there’s a far more intriguing matchup as #22 Auburn faces #10 Penn State. Auburn is 2-0 having put up 122 points, the most in the country through two weeks. They’ve only allowed 10. While this is a big step up after playing the likes of Akron and Alabama State, we are going with the Tigers plus the points. Penn State had the win over Wisconsin, but they only scored 16 points and were greatly aided by three Badgers’ turnovers. We had the Under last week when they hosted Ball State. Again, the Nittany Lions defense dominated. They allowed 13 points and 295 yards. It was an easy 44-13 win and yes, the Under did cash. It will not be easy against Auburn. With the exception of Ohio State, this could be the best offense Penn State sees all season. There are already 11 different Auburn receivers with a reception of 10 or more yards. The team’s two star running backs - Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter - have each gone over 100 yards in both games so far. But Auburn can also play a little defense. They’ve given up just 43 total rush yards so far. Do you have to consider the level of opposition? Absolutely. But you also have to consider the Tigers have won and covered seven straight games in the month of September. We’ll take the points. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL East Carolina is 0-2. They’ve opened the season with losses to Appalachian State and South Carolina. The Pirates were underdogs in both games and did not cover either. They were home dogs last week in a 20-17 loss to South Carolina. Before that, it was a nine-point spread in Boone. It’s a near identical spread this week as ECU visits Marshall. The problem for the Pirates in this game is two-fold. One, the Thundering Herd again look like they have a tremendous defense. Last year saw them lead the country in stopping the run and points allowed. You can’t get much better than that. They gave up 96 yards/game on the ground and allowed only 13.0 points/game. This year, for a new head coach, the number of points they’ve allowed in two games is 17. The Herd did allow a ton of rushing yards to Navy, however that is understandable. They were back to their old selves last week when the number of yards they allowed on the ground was just 71 on 27 carries. The other problem that East Carolina will have Saturday is that Marshall’s offense looks a lot better than it did in 2020. They’ve put up 93 points in two games. Grant Wells is completing over 70 percent of his passes. East Carolina is a team that has just five FBS wins since 2019. It’s Mike Houston’s third year in Greenville, but still his team is not adequate enough to contend with a proven bunch like Marshall. The loss to South Carolina was a heartbreaker as the Pirates blew a 14-0 lead and watched as a last second field goal sailed through the uprights for the Gamecocks. Marshall is 2-0 despite six turnovers. On the 50th anniversary of the “Young Thundering Herd” team, the current Thundering Herd will make the alumni proud. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MEMPHIS There are some real “funny” lines this Saturday and this is definitely one of them. Mississippi State struggled for three quarters against Louisiana Tech before escaping with a 35-34 win. Then they pulled out a surprise 24-10 over North Carolina State as two-point home underdogs, a game where the difference was clearly three Wolfpack turnovers. Well, three turnovers + an opening kick return for a touchdown. Don’t think the Bulldogs will be that lucky again when they play their first road game of 2021 against a Memphis team that has not lost at the Liberty Bowl since 2018. The Tigers are also 2-0 with wins over Nicholls State and Arkansas State. The second game was a real barn burner with both teams scoring 50 points and gaining 680 yards. But Memphis put up 55 and held on for the victory. The final margin of victory wasn’t enough to cover the spread, however you should be aware that the Tigers allowed two late touchdowns after leading by double digits most of the game. Memphis is 4-0 ATS as a home dog since 2017 including upsets of UCF and Houston last season. They lead the nation in total offense right now at 634.5 yards/game and QB Henigan, a true freshman, looks to be the real deal. The “Air Raid” will not be the most explosive offense on the field Saturday. Take the points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VA TECH Not sure we understand this line. Virginia Tech is off to a 2-0 start for Justin Fuente, which includes a 17-10 upset over then #10 North Carolina. The Hokies came into that game as 5.5 point underdogs, so it was a really impressive win. Their second SU win was much more comfortable as they defeated Middle Tennessee by a score of 35-14. But it was also a lot closer as far as the point spread was concerned (they were -20). Now they are dogs again, this time on the road, as they go to Morgantown for the first time since 2005. West Virginia has yet to beat an FBS team this year as they lost to Maryland 30-24 two weeks ago, getting outplayed in the process. The fact WVU won 66-0 last week means next to nothing as they played an FCS school. These schools haven’t met since 2017, but the Hokies hold a 15-5 ATS edge going back to 1987 and haven’t lost to the Mountaineers since 2003. When an unranked team is favored by three points or less over a Top 15 opponent, go ahead and fade the chalk as they are just 8-18-2 ATS in that situation the past 20 years. West Virginia running back Leddie Brown is averaging just 3.3 yards/carry so far and will struggle to find space against Fuente’s defense. Virginia Tech has lost only once with Braxton Burmeister, now a junior, as the starting QB. We will gladly take the points and expect an outright win. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-17-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOR -1.5 It’s been a weird season for the Blue Jays (82-64), who have played “home games” in Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY. They were finally allowed to cross the border in late July and it was not long after that they began to surge. Winners in 16 of their last 19 games, Toronto finds itself in position to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. But they cannot afford to let up. There are five teams separated by only four games in contention for the two Wild Card spots. Boston is tied with Toronto and the Yankees are a half-game back. We don’t see there being any sort of letdown Friday as the Blue Jays face a Twins team that is already eliminated from playoff contention. Minnesota (64-83) lost 12-3 at home to Cleveland on Wednesday as it’s been a very disappointing season where they’ve dropped 28.5 units. That has them as the second worst team to bet on in 2021. Only Arizona (-37.1 units) has been less profitable. We haven’t hesitated to lay the -1.5 on the run line with Toronto recently. The last time we did so, they won 22-7 against Baltimore! Only three teams have a better run differential for the year. We like Hyun-Jin Ryu being on the mound tonight as Minnesota is 16-33 vs. lefties. Michael Pineda has a 3-7 team start record for the Twins since June 1st. The Blue Jays have won 18 of the 22 games this season where they closed as a home favorite of -175 or higher. They’ll win this one by at least two runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISIANA Ohio U looks to be in major trouble in Tim Albin’s first year at the helm. The Bobcats will take an 0-2 record to Lafayette, Louisiana as they take on the 1-1 Ragin Cajuns Thursday night at Cajun Field. Louisiana began the year ranked #23, but lost to Texas 38-18 in the opening game. That score has since gotten a bit more embarrassing with the Longhorns getting blown out at Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t the Ragin Cajuns’ fault. Now it also doesn’t look good that they could only beat Nicholls State by a field goal last week. But that final score was misleading in the sense that the Ragin Cajuns led by 17 with just over five minutes to go. This is a team that has won 22 of its previous 27 games. They are in a much better place now than Ohio. New coach Albin saw his team lose the opener at home to Syracuse by a score of 29-9. Then the Bobcats were stuffed on a two-point conversion attempt at the end of the game last week against Duquesne. That’s a home loss to a FCS foe where they were 28.5 point favorites. Not only that, the Bobcats were outgained and trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. Albin took over on somewhat short notice when Frank Solich surprisingly announced his retirement over the summer. Ohio is usually one of the better MAC teams but is clearly prepared to take a step back this year. Louisiana wins big here. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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09-16-21 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB -1.5 Before they lost two of three in Toronto, the Rays lost two of three in Detroit last weekend. The deciding game was a real back and forth affair as the Tigers rallied back from a three-run deficit in the eighth inning, then scored two runs to win the game in the bottom of the 10th. Things should go quite differently at Tropicana Field though. So much so that we are willing to lay the -1.5 on the run line with the Rays tonight. The Tigers just aren’t very good outside the Motor City. Their record as a road underdog of +175 to +250 is 9-17 this year and going back to 2019, the record is 21-47. Tampa Bay has captured 37 of its last 51 games as a favorite. (They were underdogs in all three games at Toronto). When they’re at home, the Rays are winning by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Key to that margin is holding visitors to 3.3 runs/game. It’ll be Louis Head as an opener, followed by Dietrich Enns pitching for the Rays tonight. Enns had a really impressive relief effort against the Tigers last weekend where he didn’t allow a single base runner for four innings. With him expected to pitch the bulk of today’s game, don’t look for the Tigers to score much. Most don’t realize this, but the Rays are the top offensive team in baseball. Tyler Alexander has a 9-2 team start record for Detroit including a 10-4 win over the Rays last weekend. But we see his luck running out here. His two starts in September have lasted a combined eight innings. The Rays have a huge edge in the bullpen in this matchup. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-14-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MIL -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Brewers have won five in a row overall. As they inch closer to the NL Central pennant, they can become the first team to 50 road wins on Tuesday when they head to Detroit. On paper, it looks like a very easy week for Milwaukee as they have two games here followed by three at home vs. the Cubs. At some point during a 10-game home stand, they will clinch the division. It’s just a matter of time. A string of strong pitching performances, including MLB’s 9th no hitter of 2021 on Saturday, have propelled the Brewers to an 89-55 record. They’ve scored 10 or more runs in three of the last five games, outscoring opponents 38-7. Detroit did just take two of three from Tampa Bay over the weekend, but they aren’t going to finish .500 and are just 4-10 in their past 14 home games. They are also 1-6 off their previous seven victories. Milwaukee has won seven of eight following an off day and 36 of its last 52 games overall. Tuesday’s starter Freddy Peralta has a 2.72 ERA and 0.95 WHIP for the Brewers and the team is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Detroit’s Wily Peralta (no relation) has not won a decision since July 18th. Pretty one-sided in our estimation. Why not lay the -1.5? Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-12-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 22-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 Toronto has finally done it! They caught the Yankees for the second Wild Card and are only a game behind Boston for the top Wild Card spot. They’ve won eight of nine after sweeping a doubleheader from Baltimore in remarkable fashion on Saturday. The first game saw them come back to win 11-10 with a four-run seventh (remember doubleheaders are only seven innings now). The second game was even wilder as they failed to get a single hit through the first six innings before erupting for an 11-run seventh! It’s Baltimore that they are facing again Sunday. After taking two crushing losses the previous day, we can’t see a team that has fallen to 50 games below .500 having much resolve today. Thus, our call is for the Blue Jays to win this game by two or more runs. From a value standpoint, the run line is obviously much better than a straight money line bet here. Steven Matz should handle a feeble Orioles lineup on Sunday. The Toronto left-hander has allowed no more than two earned runs in seven consecutive starts. Eight different Blue Jays homered on Saturday as the team scored 22 runs in 14 innings. They’re going against a rookie in Zac Lowther on Sunday. This is just Lowther’s third start and seventh appearance at the big league level. He was good in his most recent start, but the first one (which was back in May) saw him give up seven runs in 2.3 innings. Look for the Jays to rough him up on their way to a convincing win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Titans | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona was 8-8 last season. So they were the definition of mediocre. It was an unpleasant end to the campaign as the Cardinals lost their final three games, which cost them a playoff opportunity. QB Kyler Murray was hampered by an injury down the stretch. He’s back and ready to go this year. Murray and the Arizona offense couldn’t have asked for a much more favorable matchup in Week 1. This Tennessee defense was bad in 2020. It ranked 24th in scoring, 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage. Healthy again and able to use his legs, Murray should do very well in this game. There were eight times last season where the Titans allowed 30 points or more. For much of the year, opposing offenses were converting at almost a 60 percent clip on third downs. The Titans still made the playoffs (11-5) thanks to the offense, which added Julio Jones for 2021. But don’t look for Tennessee to score many more points than they did last year. Can they really top over 30 points/game at home? Jones and QB Tannehill had limited reps together in training camp. Derrick Henry is coming off a heavy 2020 workload. They also lost coordinator Arthur Smith, who took the head coaching job at Atlanta. Early start times have not bothered the Cardinals in the past as they are 6-3 ATS in games played at 1 PM ET under Kliff Kingsbury. The Titans may look better on paper heading into 2021, but we’re not convinced they are actually better this year. Arizona does look better. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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09-12-21 | 49ers -7.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SF San Francisco is the pick of most to be the most improved team in the league. They have a win total of 10.5 after going 6-10 last year. Now there’s a 17th regular season game added. But a five-win improvement is a big deal in this league. It’s certainly possible seeing as the 49ers won 13 games two years ago and made it to the Super Bowl. Will they get back to that level again for Kyle Shanahan? That remains to be seen. But you know which team won’t be in the Super Bowl in February? The Lions. They’ve never been in one, joining the Browns, Jaguars and Texans as the only franchises to never make it to the final game. Even by Lions’ standards, this team looks bad. It’s been pegged for five wins in Dan Campbell’s debut season. Matt Stafford is gone, off to LA, and his replacement (Jared Goff) is a clear downgrade. The defense was one of the worst in the league a season ago. Campbell is going to work to improve that side of the ball, but it’s going to take time. The 49ers like to run the ball and should not encounter much resistance in this one as the Lions were very poor at stopping the run last year. San Francisco has won 15 of the previous 17 encounters with Detroit. The fact they are a sizable road favorite could be head-turning for a few folks, but the Lions really are bad. They only won five games last year and four of those were by less than five points. There’s been no position that was clearly upgraded in the offseason. San Francisco fell to six wins because of poor health as multiple stars were lost to season ending injuries. The team is healthy for 2021 and Jimmy G is going to have a big passing day here. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-11-21 | Stanford +17.5 v. USC | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD Stanford’s first game didn’t go so well. The Cardinal lost 24-7 at Kansas State as three-point underdogs. The offense didn’t do much and the defense was consistently put in poor positions. The loss leaves David Shaw just 8-11 straight up and 6-13 against the spread in his last 19 games. The Cardinal are just 3-8 SU/ATS as underdogs during that time. But they hope for better results this week when they open the Pac 12 schedule “after dark” against USC. The Trojans were 30-7 winners over San Jose State in Week 1. While the offense had some red zone breakdowns, the defense helped them out by forcing some early turnovers. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially one so early in the season. In their last 25 games as a double digit favorite, Southern Cal is 11-13-1 against the spread and five of the victories on the field have been by five points or less. It’s not hard to see them “playing down” to the level of competition following a 23-point victory last week. Total yardage with San Jose State was pretty even. Stanford knows the USC coaching staff well. Shaw is making a QB change to Tanner McKee, who was better after coming on in relief of Jack West against Kansas State. The teams didn’t play last year but Stanford has covered five of the last seven matchups. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-11-21 | Texas -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Arkansas has done a good job at covering the spread when they are the underdog. They are 10-3 against the spread the last 13 times they’ve gotten points from the oddsmakers. Three different times last year, the Razorbacks went into a game as the dog and walked away with an outright win. But this is Texas they are facing in Week 2. The Longhorns won by 20 last week (38-18) over a Louisiana team that was ranked #23. They never trailed. Now the ‘Horns are up to #15 themselves. Don’t think for a second they won’t be looking to make a statement here against their old SWC - and future SEC rival. Arkansas was not nearly as impressive in Week 1 as they trailed Rice at halftime before going on a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter. Each of those three fourth quarter touchdowns were off Rice turnovers. Texas is not going to be in such a giving mood. KJ Jefferson and the Hogs' passing game really struggled last week. They gained only 128 yards through the air. Arkansas isn’t going to be able to run the ball here like they did in the first game. The Texas’ defense gave up just 76 yards rushing to Louisiana - on 29 carries. Their offense also looked good. RB Robinson is one of the very best in the country. The Razorbacks will struggle to stop him and won’t be forcing the same number of turnovers they did vs. Rice. Texas has covered five straight on the non-conference slate and is also 4-1 ATS their last five times as a road favorite. Arkansas is 0-8 ATS the previous eight times they have been off a win of more than 20 points. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-11-21 | Wyoming -7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WYOMING Don’t overreact too much to Northern Illinois’ upset win at Georgia Tech last week. Though the Huskies came out ahead by a point in a contest where they were 19-point underdogs, they gained fewer yards than they gave up and needed a late touchdown plus two-point conversion to seal the upset. This is a team that didn’t win a single game in 2020 (0-6 SU). They were also fortunate that Georgia Tech lost its starting quarterback in the second quarter. Backup Jordan Yates led three touchdown drives against the NIU defense. So look for Wyoming to move the ball more effectively than they did last week vs. Montana State when they also needed a last-minute touchdown to get the victory. Northern Illinois did give up 286 yards rushing to Georgia Tech last week. Wyoming has an excellent running back in Xazavian Valladay, who figure to get more carries this week. We think it is worth noting that while Northern Illinois was a 19-point underdog last week, Wyoming was a 19-point favorite. This game is in DeKalb, but the line is too short in our estimation. The road team has covered the last six times it has been off an ATS loss. Should be a double digit win for the Cowboys on Saturday. Lay it! Play on WYOMING AAA |
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09-10-21 | UTEP +26 v. Boise State | Top | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTEP UTEP is already 2-0 on the young season. Now those wins were against New Mexico State and Bethune Cookman, the worst FBS team and a FCS team. But at last the Miners have some confidence as they travel to the blue turf in Boise, ID Friday night. Boise State’s season began with a painful 36-31 loss at UCF last Thursday. It was a game the Broncos led much of the way, including 21-0 early in the second quarter. They got an early 100-yard pick-six to start the scoring and it wasn’t until late in the third quarter that they fell behind. But the Broncos were outgained significantly, 573-283, and if you take away the pick-six then really the game wouldn’t have been that competitive. UTEP isn’t Central Florida, but should be able to move the ball enough to stay within the huge number tonight. This is easily Dana Dimel’s best team in his four year in El Paso and his most experienced. The Miners had just five wins his first three years, three of those coming last season. Now they are off to a 2-0 start and building confidence. Boise State has a new coach in Andy Avalos while coming off their worst offensive season in 25 years. Blowing a three touchdown lead on the road last week did not do wonders for the Broncos’ confidence. They gained just 59 total yards in the second half. UTEP has good wide receivers and should be able to attack a suspect secondary. We are taking the points in this matchup. Play on UTEP AAA |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame -7 v. Florida State | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ND Notre Dame beat Florida State last season 42-26. The Fighting Irish failed to cover though as they were massive 21-point favorites in South Bend. Now they are set to invade Tallahassee for the first time since 2014. We know the Irish have their doubters heading into the season and people want to believe in FSU. But ND has gone 33-5 straight up the past three seasons. Florida State is just 14-20. The gap between the two storied programs isn’t as tight as these odds seem to indicate. Keep in mind that it’s been an absolutely wretched weekend so far for the ACC with Clemson and North Carolina both losing and Miami getting crushed by Bama. Florida State isn’t one of the better ACC teams and hasn’t been in awhile. They’ve got major question marks on both sides of the ball. The defense allowed almost 200 yards rushing per game in 2020. On offense, no starting QB has been announced. FSU beat only two FBS teams last year. Notre Dame was in the CFP. Jack Coan, who transferred over from Wisconsin to be the Fighting Irish’s new QB, is 12-6 SU in his collegiate career as a starter. Notre Dame is by far the more talented of these two teams. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-05-21 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 (RUN LINE) Toronto looks to be rising from the dead. They’d lost 9 of 13 after falling to Detroit 2-1 on 8/27 and their playoff chances certainly looked to be on life support. But they’ve responded by winning six of seven and scoring 21 runs in the last two games. Each of those last two games were against Oakland and now the Jays can sweep on Sunday. They came from way behind on Friday, rallying three different times including a six-run eighth inning and a walk-off Marcus Semien three-run HR. Yesterday saw them jump out to a big 10-3 lead and hold on to win 10-8. Hard not to like this team right now, particularly with Robbie Ray starting. Ray has been great this year as his 14-12 TSR is highly misleading. He’s delivered seven straight quality starts where he’s allowed only nine runs. It’s a 1.72 ERA in that stretch and he has 35 strikeouts vs. only two walks his last three starts. Oakland is fading right now as they’ve lost 6 of 10. Cole Irvin’s last three starts have produced a 5.93 ERA and 2.121 WHIP. The fact he has the same TSR as Ray over his L7 starts is criminal. Let’s ride the hot team in this one with a pitcher who is due for another win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU UCLA has a game under its belt. Chip Kelly probably couldn’t have asked for it to go any better. His Bruins jumped out to a 24-3 lead after the first quarter and never looked back. It ended up 44-10 when all was said and done. The key was a Hawaii implosion. The Warriors unsuccessfully went for it on fourth down on their very first possession. That led to a quick UCLA field goal. Later in the quarter was a fumble deep in Hawaii’s own territory. The Bruins immediately cashed that one in for a TD. In the fourth quarter, with the game already out of reach, the Bruins recovered a blocked punt in the end zone. Don’t expect #16 LSU to be as giving. After winning a National Championship in 2019, the Tigers fell back down to Earth with a 5-5 record last season. Like UCLA, LSU should bounce back from a disappointing season. The defensive line has far more depth. It took almost the whole year, but in the third to last game of last year, Ed Orgeron finally found his QB. It’s Max Johnson, now a sophomore, who led the Tigers to wins in the final two games. The LSU offense put up 37 and 53 points in those two wins. Lost in the final score of last week is that UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed just half of his passes for 130 yards. That won’t come close to cutting it here. LSU was able to escape Irma and practiced in Houston during the week. They’ll be on the West Coast to practice by Friday. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State v. Oregon -20 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON Oregon will have to be careful here as they’ve got a date with Ohio State next week. Fresno State played a game last week. They crushed UConn 45-0. But you don’t need us to tell you that Oregon is a big step up from a team that didn’t even play competitive football in 2020. The Ducks are ranked #11 in the country. They’ve won the Pac 12 each of the last two seasons. Fresno State has not faced a ranked opponent since the 2018 season. The Bulldogs will have plenty of difficulty stopping the run this week as Oregon’s RB duo of Verdell and Dye have 4,363 career yards rushing between them. That’s the most returning yards of any backfield in the country. The offensive line that they’ll be running behind is experienced. Oregon has won its last 12 games at Autzen Stadium and 26 home games in a row when facing a non-conference foe. Don’t look past the fact that Fresno State’s QB had to leave last week’s game with cramping in the third quarter. Oregon may have the best edge rusher in the nation in Kayvon Thibodeaux. Not even having to lay three touchdowns at Autzen seems like a steal to us. The Ducks are going to be very good this season and haven’t lost to Fresno State since 1982. Play on OREGON AAA |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State -13.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State owns the Big Ten in much the same way Clemson owns the Atlantic Coast Conference. Over the last nine seasons, the Buckeyes have won 74 of 79 conference games. They are an obvious favorite to win the league again in 2021. They will be breaking in a new quarterback, CJ Stroud, who replaces Justin Fields. We don’t think that’s going to be a problem. Stroud has Ryan Day calling the plays and the best set of receivers in the country to throw to. You’ve got Master Teague and TreVeyon Henderson at running back. The Buckeyes averaged over 500 yards and 40 points per game last season. They’ll probably do it again this year. Making life even scarier for the rest of the Big 10 is the likely improvement of the Buckeyes' defense from last year. They weren’t particularly good against the pass, but the secondary now has more experience. Minnesota only has the seventh best odds of winning the conference and it honestly feels as if the gap between 1 and 2 is larger than between 2 and 7. The Golden Gophers were just 3-4 SU last year and really have no hope of winning this game. The last time they beat Ohio State was in the year 2000 and that’s the only win in the series since 1981. Ohio State has not lost a season opener this century and have covered six of the last eight times they’ve been road favorites. Minnesota is not Alabama, the team the Buckeyes lost to in the CFP Championship Game. They are a Big 10 opponent and that means you should expect a big OSU win. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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09-02-21 | South Florida +19 v. NC State | Top | 0-45 | Loss | -118 | 53 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF South Florida comes into Thursday’s opener against North Carolina State as a big underdog. But we think the Bulls are getting far too many points here. NC State did go 8-4 last year. But they were 4-8 the year before that. They were 8-4 in 2020 despite scoring only 13 more points than they allowed. The Wolfpack were also underdogs in over half of last year’s games. They were favored by double digits only twice and covered just one. We know there’s a decent amount of returning starters for Dave Doeren. However, this is simply not a team we’re interested in laying a lot of points with, especially in the first game. Jeff Scott may not have had a great first year at USF, going just 1-8, but his Bulls covered five times. Two of the losses were within a field goal. The defense will be better this year (how could it not?) and nine transfers were added via the portal. Do we think the Bulls can win this game? Absolutely not. But NC State seems overvalued. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH FLORIDA AAA |
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09-01-21 | Brewers +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIL +1.5 The Brewers have come in and taken the first two games against the Giants. That’s impressive. San Francisco has the best overall record in the majors as well as the highest win percentage at home. But nobody has more road victories in 2021 than the Brewers, who are 45-23 away from American Family Field. Only two other teams, the Giants being one of them, have 40 road wins this season. We’re not sure if the Brewers will finish the sweep here tonight, but we do like them getting 1.5 via the run line. Milwaukee went off as the favorite for each of the last two days. It says a lot that oddsmakers would favor them in San Francisco. Having Burnes and Woodruff start was a big reason for that. Tonight’s starter is Brett Anderson. The team has lost the previous four times he’s started. So we understand why the line has “flipped” the Giants' way. However, Milwaukee has simply been playing better of late. They have won 7 of 10 whereas the Giants have lost 4 of 5. Kevin Gausman hasn’t lost since July 30th for the Giants but has allowed a total of 10 runs his last three starts. Milwaukee led last night’s game 6-0 as SF was held to two hits for the first five innings. The Brewers’ lineup is back to full strength with Willy Adames back and Christian Yelich on a 10-game hit streak. Five of the Giants' last seven wins have been by one run. Our view is that Anderson pitches better than expected and the Brewers’ lineup continues to swing the bat well. Play on MILWAUKEE +1.5 AAA |
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08-28-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 Toronto suffered a crushing one-run defeat at the hands of Detroit Friday night. The 2-1 final was decided by an inside the park HR from Tigers’ pinch-hitter Victor Reyes in home half of the eighth. That it was the first time in the expansion era that a pinch hitter won the game with an inside the park home run is of little matter to the Blue Jays. They now face a 6.5 game deficit in the Wild Card race and are 1-3 vs. the Tigers this month. They’ve got to turn things around and we like their chances Saturday against Jose Urena. Urena has not pitched in over a month due to a groin injury. When he was pitching, he wasn’t very effective. In 17 starts, he has a 6.19 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. He’s 2-8 and winless at home. Urena has pitched worse at Comerica Park than he has on the road, so this really is a golden opportunity for Toronto’s hitters to get back on track. The Tigers will also use Tyler Alexander, but the key is jumping on Urena early. We think Alex Manoah will do his job for Toronto. He’s had his fair share of quality starts recently. He held the White Sox to a run in six innings on Monday. That was the seventh time in eight starts he allowed two runs or less. The Blue Jays are a better ballclub and shouldn’t lose two days in a row. They will win here by multiple runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Betting this number early feels good, but we still feel very confident in Illinois plus the points in the Big 10 opener. Brett Bielema inherited a team that really didn’t do much under Lovie Smith. The Fighting Illini project to be the last place team in the Big 10 West this year, but they should be more competitive under Bielema. They beat Nebraska last season 41-23 as 17-point underdogs. Now the Cornhuskers are facing potential NCAA sanctions before the 2021 season even starts. The threat of sanctions puts already embattled head coach Scott Frost even more squarely on the hot seat. The ‘Huskers were only 3-5 a year ago. Just one win was by more than seven points. The program is 5-11 ATS as a favorite under Frost. Overall they’ve won only 12 of 32 games straight up. So to lay points with them on the conference road, in the first game of the season, seems foolish. QB Martinez has been far too inconsistent throughout his career. The defense gave up 29.4 points/game in 2020. Illinois has 18 starters back and you should look for the defensive front seven to be much improved. Gotta grab the points in this one. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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08-27-21 | Eagles v. Jets -4.5 | Top | 31-31 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYJ The Jets have enjoyed a successful start to the preseason, winning both games and going 2-0 ATS. This makes sense as they have a new head coach in Robert Saleh and thus a reason to try in these games. Then again the Eagles have a new coach in Nick Sirianni and the preseason has gone much differently for them. Philly is 0-2 straight up and ATS. Since a hot start in the first game against Pittsburgh, the Eagles have been outscored 59-3 in the last seven quarters. They were shutout on national television last week, 35-0, by the Patriots. The Jets have beaten the Giants 12-7 and Packers 23-14. Zach Wilson figures to start and get a few series on Friday night. The rookie threw two touchdown passes in the first half last week. He has not turned the ball over or been sacked in the preseason. Nor has the offense gone three and out with him at the helm. The Eagles offense looked so bad last week. How could anyone back them? They were outgained 486-163 by the Patriots and it was 31-14 in first downs. QB Jalen Hurts being a late scratch did not help matters. In addition to playing Wilson for a few series, Saleh is going with his defensive starters and offensive line. That’s good enough for us. The Eagles' backups have looked atrocious in the two games so far. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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08-23-21 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOU -1.5 The last series between Houston and Kansas City produced some very shocking results. It was the Royals that won three of the four games. Houston’s only win came in the last game of the series and they had to battle back from an early 3-0 deficit to win in extra innings. That series was last week, so it’s fresh in the Astros’ players minds. The weekend went better for them. They took two of three from Seattle. The two wins were dominant: 12-3 and 15-1. The loss, which was yesterday, saw them blow an early 2-0 advantage and lose 6-3 in 11 innings. So it was basically the reverse of the previous Kansas City series. We really like Houston to start this series with a win. Greinke has 1.89 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his last three starts. He only gave up one run when faced the Royals last Wednesday. Greinke has 2.68 ERA in six starts vs. KC, whom he pitched for from 2004-10. The Royals followed up the successful series with the Astros by sweeping the Cubs. So they have won six of their last seven games. But there is a 17.5 game difference in the standings between these teams. Rookie Daniel Lynch has a 5.12 ERA. His three road starts have produced a very high WHIP (1.61) as well. Kansas City has just three win streaks longer than three games all year. One was in April. Can’t see Houston losing to them again. We’re confident enough to lay the -1.5. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-22-21 | 49ers -5 v. Chargers | Top | 15-10 | Push | 0 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF The key to this one is the 49ers are having a QB competition while the Chargers don’t have much to look forward to under center once Justin Herbert departs. Herbert is better than either of the 49ers options at QB - Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance - but he’s obviously not going to play a ton tonight. Between the two, Garoppolo and Lance should see a majority of the snaps for the Niners. That’s what it’s all about in these preseason games, knowing which QBs will be playing. The Niners lost their first preseason game, 19-16 to Kansas City, which should have them more motivated than Los Angeles who won 13-6 over the Rams last week. The Rams didn’t even bother to play their starters, so it could be a bit of a “shock” for the Chargers who will be facing non-backups for the first time in 2021. Lay the points in this one. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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08-22-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -159 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAA +1.5 (RUN LINE) Cleveland looks to sweep LA Sunday night. They have held the Angels to just two runs in the first two games. After a 9-1 win on Friday, things were a “touch” closer on Saturday afternoon. But the Indians still prevailed by a comfortable 5-1 margin. This is now the first time in August that the Tribe has won two in a row. Both they and the Angels are now one game below .500. It’s difficult to see either team getting back into real playoff contention, but at least today’s winner can exit the weekend at the Mendoza Line. It’s obviously been a tough series for the road team, but we are confident that they can keep the game within a run tonight. Indians starter Cal Quantrill has seen four of his last seven starts decided by a one-run margin. The team has lost three of those four one-run games. They are 3-9 in Quantrill’s last 12 starts with five of the losses coming by a run. Cleveland is just 25-34 after a win this season. But the big key to this game is that it’s being played in Williamsport, PA, not Cleveland. It’s part of the Little League World Series festivities. That’s a break for the Angels, who start a lefty - Jose Suarez - in this spot. Suarez pitched well Monday despite taking a hard-luck 2-1 loss at Yankee Stadium. Besides a first inning homer, Suarez allowed only three other hits. He also struck out six in five innings. Play on LA ANGELS +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-21-21 | Broncos -5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DENVER We took Denver last week and they won 33-6 over a banged up Minnesota team. This week they are in Seattle to play a Seahawks team that doesn’t seem to have much interest in these preseason games. Pete Carroll’s team lost 20-7 to Las Vegas in Week 1. They lost the first down battle 26-9. The most impressive thing about the Broncos’ first preseason game was that they didn’t even play their defensive starters. Vic Fangio has said starters will play this week. The Broncos have a very good defense, in case you forgot. The QB battle between Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater ensures that the offense should stay humming for four quarters. We will lay the points in this one. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-21-21 | Braves v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) Yes, we’re gonna do it. At some point this morning, you probably heard that not only has Baltimore lost 16 consecutive games but all 16 losses have been by two or more runs. So that’s an 0-16 run on the run line that they are on as well. They are starting Matt Harvey on Saturday. Certainly things are not looking rosy for the home team in Camden Yards. But we are willing to take a flier and say the Orioles can at least stay within a run today. It’s extremely difficult to keep losing games by multiple runs like this. Harvey ended July with an 18-plus inning scoreless streak, so he’s capable of keeping Atlanta in check. The Braves only scored three times Friday night. They are only 4-12 in interleague play this season after yesterday’s win. Drew Smyly should feel very thankful for his team start record because his own numbers are not that great. He has a 1.54 WHIP on the road. He also has a 5.14 ERA in the last three starts. He’s only gone four innings in four of his last five starts. The Braves have won Smyly’s last five starts. But the last two wins both came by just a run. Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-21-21 | Falcons +5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The Falcons sat their starters last week in a 23-3 loss to the Titans. We expect a better showing this week in Miami. AJ McCarron and Felipe Franks, the two quarterbacks, can’t be any worse than they were last week. We will attribute their performance to “being the first game.” Tonight could be our first look at TE Kyle Pitts. The Atlanta defense was good against the Titans. The scoring drives they did allow mostly were a byproduct of short fields. Dorian Etheridge has been a standout. Miami got off to a good start last week, jumping out to a 13-0 lead on Chicago. But then they fell victim to Justin Fields and ended up losing 20-13. There are some question marks with the Dolphins offensive line right now. We just don’t think it’s wise to lay this many points with Miami in a preseason affair. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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08-21-21 | Ottawa +10.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OTTAWA Ottawa is 1-0 and off a bye. The REDBLACKS were 16-12 winners in Week 1 as they downed Edmonton as a seven-point road underdog. They are getting even more points this week from a Saskatchewan team that has roared to a 2-0 start. The Roughriders have played twice at home and beaten British Columbia 33-29 and Hamilton 30-8. They have not opened a season 3-0 since 2013. While the team has won nine in a row in Regina, we don’t see them winning this one by double digits. In last week’s CFL play, the team off a bye (Montreal) won 30-13. You can’t draw too many conclusions about one game, but the bye definitely doesn’t hurt the REDBLACKS here. The Roughriders may lead the CFL in scoring but they are just sixth in total offense. That can’t be sustained. We expect Ottawa to hold them to a season-low in points and stay within the number. Play on OTTAWA AAA |
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08-19-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE -1.5 Milwaukee is simply a better team than St. Louis. They have been all season. So a pair of two-run victories in this series shouldn’t be surprising to you. It was a low-scoring game Tuesday, 2-0, but we said to take the Over last night and thanks to the 10th inning that was a winner. The Brewers won 6-4. For the third and final game of the series, we are going with Milwaukee -1.5 on the run line. They are 74-47 this year, 42-20 on the road. Dominating the rest of the NL Central, they have a 40-19 division record. They are 14-1 in road games when the total is 8.0 to 8.5. Not only do the Brewers have the most road wins in baseball, they are winning on the road by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Brandon Woodruff has a 2.18 ERA plus a 0.91 WHIP, which has him among the very best pitchers in baseball this season. Jon Lester used to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but that was a long time ago. In 2021, Lester’s ERA is 5.32. He’s struggled since coming over from Washington. The Brewers have won eight of their last nine games. Seven of those wins have been by two or more runs. Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-19-21 | Phillies -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILLIES -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Phillies have lost the first two games of this series with the Diamondbacks. That’s quite embarrassing considering the Diamondbacks have the National League’s worst record. Now that record has gotten somewhat better of late as they’ve won five of their last six games. But you’re still looking at a team that has lost more than two-thirds of its games. It wasn’t too long ago that the Phillies were the hottest team in baseball. They won eight in a row to open August and were in first place in the NL East. But since then they’ve lost six of eight games and now face a 3.5 game deficit in the division as it is the Braves that are surging. The key to today’s selection is that Zack Wheeler is going to be starting for Philadelphia. Wheeler leads all starters with 187 strikeouts and 162 innings pitched. With Jacob deGrom injured, Wheeler could be in line for the Cy Young. An Arizona team that is only 11-28 in day games should be no match for the right-hander, whose WHIP is sub-1.00 for the year. Even though he’s done well since returning from the injured list, Madison Bumgarner is not the same pitcher he was a couple of years ago for the Giants. He gave up a season-high nine hits in his last start. The Phillies will win here by at least two runs. Play on PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-18-21 | A's v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CWS -1.5 (RL) After winning “The Field of Dreams” game in thrilling fashion, the White Sox promptly dropped two actual home games to the Yankees. But they’ve quickly gotten back on track by beating Oakland each of the last two days. We had them Monday and that was a 5-2 victory. It was way easier yesterday as they took the game 9-0. With Lance Lynn set to go tonight, the AL Central leaders should move one step closer to a sweep (this is a four-game series) and we think they win this one by at least two runs. Lynn will handle the A’s lineup. He has a 6-2 record at home, a 2.25 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He has a 6-1 TSR over his last seven starts, having permitted just one run in five of them. Oakland has dropped three straight. Don’t think Cole Irvin will be able to handle a White Sox lineup that is averaging 5.3 runs in games where they oppose a lefty starter. The White Sox are 41-22 at home this year. When they are -125 to -175 on the money, they are 21-7 in home games. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-17-21 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB -1.5 Tampa Bay won big last night, 9-2, and is very likely to do so again tonight. After dropping two of three to the Twins this past weekend, this series offers a shot at redemption. The Rays have been beating up on the Orioles all year, as you’d expect them to, winning 12 of the 13 season meetings. At this price, we’ve made the decision to lay the -1.5 on the run line. No fear here. Six of the Rays’ previous seven wins over the Orioles have been by more than one run. At the present time, Baltimore is playing as poorly as they have all year, which is really saying something. They are 0-12 their last 12 games and have been outscored 113-36. This isn’t even their longest losing streak this year! They are ill-equipped to handle the Rays lineup, allowing nine or more runs eight of the 13 times they faced them. Tampa has outscored them 103-51 on the year. Not even John Means, Baltimore’s best pitcher, is enough to stem the tide here. Means already lost to the Rays earlier in the month in what turned out to be a 10-6 game. He followed that by serving up three home runs to Detroit. Tampa Bay homered five times yesterday and has scored at least eight runs in 8 of the last 10 games. Should be an easy night for Rasmussen, no matter how long he’s asked to go. Play on TAMPA BAY -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-14-21 | A's -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAK -1.5 Texas did beat Oakland last night, 8-6, but the Rangers are obviously a team that doesn’t do a whole heck of a lot of winning. Their 75 losses are the third most of any team. They’d lost the previous five games with the A’s before winning Friday. So calling for the A’s to bounce back Saturday doesn’t seem like much of a stretch. We’re confident enough to lay the -1.5 as this should be a blowout. Texas is 15-25 off a win this year. Oakland is 8-2 in August, a month that has been kind to them in years’ past as well. The last three Augusts have seen the A’s put together a 44-19 record. They’d just won 17-0 in Cleveland on Thursday. There was some rare sloppy play in the field yesterday as the A’s committed three errors. Going into that game, they’d committed the fewest errors in the majors. Errors were what helped Texas score three times in the top of the first. That was more runs than the Rangers had scored in the previous two games combined. They rank last in the American League in runs scored. Jordan Lyles has won just 5 of his 22 starts for Texas this year. The last five have all been losses for the team and in three of the five games, Lyles has allowed six runs. One of those three was against the A’s. Contrast that to James Kaprielian. When the Oakland righty went against Lyles on 8/8, he gave up only two runs. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-14-21 | Jets -2 v. Giants | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the JETS It’s the annual Jets vs. Giants preseason matchup and both teams are looking to bounce back from terrible 2020 seasons. The Jets were 2-14, the fourth time in five seasons they suffered double digit losses. But this was their most losses in any season since 1996. The Giants have lost 10 or more games in six of the last seven seasons. So the current state of their franchise is no better. Lots of question marks coming into the season for both teams. The #2 pick in the draft, Zach Wilson, is expected to play a full quarter for the Jets. This is Robert Salah’s first game as a NFL coach, so he’ll be looking to make an impact. The Giants won’t play their starting QB Daniel Jones, so that leaves Mike Glennon and Clayton Thorson to split the snaps for Joe Judge. There are no other quarterbacks on the roster. Judge has said he will treat the final preseason game as a “dress rehearsal,” but he doesn’t sound like he cares too much about this one. It’s been a feisty Giants’ camp with multiple fights. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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08-14-21 | Broncos -2 v. Vikings | Top | 33-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DENVER The league’s COVID-19 protocols have wreaked havoc on the Vikings’ QB depth chart as Kirk Cousins, Nate Stanley and Kellen Mond were all forced to quarantine this week, leaving Jake Browning to handle all the first team snaps in practice. The team is also dealing with multiple injuries - on both sides of the ball. The offensive line appears to be a real “work in progress” with both left tackle and right guard being question marks. With all this information coming out of camp, it’s not a shock to see the line move the way it has. You’ve got to imagine that coach Mike Zimmer is going to just want to get this game over with as quickly as possible and not care much about winning or losing. But for Denver, they’ve got a QB battle on their hands between Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock. Vic Fangio is far from decided on who will win this job. Lock is going to start Saturday with Bridgewater coming in next (the script will be flipped next week vs. Seattle). Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-13-21 | Titans v. Falcons | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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08-07-21 | Twins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU -1.5 The Astros lost to the Twins last night, 5-4. The game went 11 innings and saw your AL West leaders blow a 3-0 lead. They are too good to let that happen again, so we will take them here, not just to win but to win by two or more runs. The run line looks like a great value in this situation as Houston is on a three-game losing streak. There have been only three times this season where the Astros have had a losing streak of more than three games. This is the first three-game losing streak since prior to the All Star Break. Luis Garcia has a 2.15 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home. He can easily handle this Twins lineup. We won’t say the same for Twins starter Michael Pineda and the Astros lineup though. In his last seven starts, Pineda has a 5.67 ERA and .892 OPS allowed. Houston has scored more runs than every other team in 2021. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-06-21 | Rangers v. A's -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAK -1.5 (RUN LINE) Oakland is 61-48 on the season. If the regular season ended today, they’d be the second Wild Card team in the American League. They trail Houston by four games in the West Division, so that’s also still in play. After coming from behind to stun San Diego on Wednesday, the A’s have won five of their last seven games. They have a real nice scheduling advantage for today’s game vs. Texas. Because it was a short two-game interleague series vs. San Diego, the A’s had both Monday and Thursday off. The Rangers have not had an off-day in over a week. They lost 5-0 yesterday afternoon to the Angels, at home, a game where we had the Under. As we talked about, this team just can’t hit. They are last or second to last in each of the four key offensive categories. The last week has seen them hit .207. Mike Foltynewicz being the starter Friday makes things even less promising. He is 2-10 with a 6.00 ERA. Chris Bassitt is a much better option for Oakland. He is 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA. Against Texas, Bassitt is 3-0. He’s allowed two runs and 12 hits in 21 innings. It’s strange that the A’s are 5-5 head to head vs. the Rangers. But they should have no problem winning this game by multiple runs. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-05-21 | Cowboys v. Steelers -1 | Top | 3-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PIT The Steelers and Cowboys open the preseason Thursday night in Canton. Both teams are just looking to stay healthy and evaluate some backups in this one. You won’t be seeing either Dak Prescott or Ben Roethlisberger taking any snaps tonight. Much of the offensive firepower will spend the game on the sidelines. But we like the Steelers QB rotation of Rudolph, Dobbs and Haskins a lot better than what the Cowboys have (Rush, Gilbert, DiNucci). Also watch out for rookie running back Najee Harris. He’s had a good camp and does figure to get a decent amount of time on the field tonight. Starters will also be limited on the defensive side of the ball, but we know Pittsburgh is better there. Dallas always seems to be overrated every year, so we won’t hesitate to fade them in the first game of the season. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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08-05-21 | Mariners v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYY -1.5 There are a lot of big favorites on tonight’s MLB card. You might be caught off guard by the fact that the Yankees are one of them. They are facing a Seattle team that has a very similar record. But the Mariners are frauds and we really like this Nestor Cortes. The Yankees margin of victory from the past two days is 19 runs. Now we know those wins came against Baltimore. But Seattle isn’t a team that deserves to be over .500. They’ve allowed 49 more runs than they have scored this season. The Mariners’ last three losses have all been by one run, but tonight is a situation where they figure to get blown out. Cortes, who is the Yankees starter for tonight, is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. He was originally going to start Tuesday’s game vs. the Orioles, but the team opted to go with Luis Gill and still won 13-1. Now Cortes has had more than a full week of rest in between starts. The Yankees are two games back of the Wild Card and one game in front of the Mariners. So this series is pretty huge. The degree to which they are favored is fairly telling. We believe they’ll win this game by two or more runs, making the run line a great option. Tyler Anderson has a 3-7 team start record on the road for Seattle. His last two starts have been losses at Arizona and Texas, two of the worst teams in baseball. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-03-21 | Royals v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 9* on CHICAGO -1.5 Chicago is one of the top teams in the American League and all of MLB. But last week they went to Kansas City and lost three of four. That shouldn’t happen when you’re a first place team facing a team fighting to get out of last place. But now the White Sox get to be the hosts and they should be rather rude. The Sox road record isn’t very good, but at home they are 37-18. That’s more home victories than every other team. We will lay the -1.5 just to play them Tuesday in what should be an easy series-opening victory. The Royals got swept this past weekend. They scored only five runs at Toronto and at one point were blanked for 17 consecutive innings. The Royals have lost two-thirds of their road games and when on a losing streak of three or more games, things get really bad. Off three or more straight losses, they are 5-21 in 2021. With an 8.19 road ERA, Kris Bubic gives us even less confidence in KC than usual today. Dylan Cease has a 7-3 home team start record for the White Sox. It’s just hard to see the home side not rolling in this one. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-03-21 | Orioles v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY -1.5 Gerrit Cole was supposed to start on Tuesday for the Yankees. But he has COVID-19 and thus he’s going to miss some time. That wasn’t the only bad news for the Yankees yesterday. They also lost 7-1 to the Orioles. That simply can’t happen if they hope to be a player in this Wild Card race. New York is three games back of Oakland right now and had won five of six prior to Monday’s loss. The team did not “stand pat” at the deadline, adding both Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo to a lineup that has put up the second fewest number of runs in the American League. Unfortunately, the Yankees decided to go 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position Monday night. Nestor Cortes Jr will be the one starting in place of Cole. If you’re not familiar with him, he’s made three starts and the team has won all of them. Over 13 innings, Cortes has permitted just two runs and seven hits. Baltimore is 7-3 its last 10 games, but still buried in last place in the division with a 38-67 record. They are a horrible road team that has gone 3-13 its last 16 games at Yankees Stadium. Alexander Wells will start this game for them. In two previous appearances, Wells has a 5.91 ERA. The idea of the Orioles winning two straight games seems ludicrous, so we’ll lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHX The NBA Finals have taken a dire turn for Phoenix. Once up 2-0, they are now down 3-2. This would be their first three-game losing skid since January, which is also the only other one (three-game skid) that they’ve been on all season. It’s a must-win in Game 6 at Milwaukee and we will be grabbing the points. For starters, the Suns are 14-5 ATS coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. They were four-point favorites back in Game Five. This is just the second time in the postseason that the Suns have been trailing in the series. The Bucks are 6-17 ATS when on a three-game win streak and 0-3 ATS off a straight up win as an underdog. Phoenix has shot 50% from the field in this series, which is pretty impressive. It also makes the series deficit that more shocking. In the last two games, the Suns have shot 53%. They were 68.4% from three in the last game. Devin Booker, off two straight 40+ point games, should get more help from teammates tonight. For Milwaukee, Middleton and Holiday will probably not combine for 56 points again (that’s what they went for in Game Five). Facing elimination for the first time, you know Phoenix is going to fight to the end. The last two losses were by just 10 total points. The underdog will cover in this one. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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07-19-21 | Twins v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) Fresh off a couple wins over Houston, the White Sox get to stay home to start the week. They’ll play two (doubleheader) against Minnesota on Monday with Lance Lynn starting Game 1. We look for this one to quickly turn into a blowout. The Twins have not been good against the White Sox so far this season. They are 2-10 in head to head matchups, which includes an 0-6 record at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Twins’ weekend saw them get swept in Detroit. While Chicago is a top five team in baseball by any objective measure, Minnesota has been among the most underachieving teams of 2021. They are -24.9 units, making them the second worst team to bet on (only Arizona is worse). Back to Lynn, he’s having an exemplary year with a 1.99 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He’s pitched against the Twins three times and has given up only four runs and 11 hits in 17 innings. The last time he faced them was 12 days ago and that ended up being an easy 6-1 victory. The Twins starter for Game 1 is Michael Pineda. The team has lost each of his last four starts, getting outscored 35-12 in the process. We are so confident in this one that we are willing to lay the -1.5 (run line). Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |