Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-03-21 | Pacers +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 110-130 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Indiana looked really good last night, beating a Memphis team that had previously won seven in a row. The Grizzlies were playing on the second night of a back to back, but the Pacers made it look easy with a 134-116 victory. They shot nearly 60% for the game and now must avoid the same fate that befell their opponents last night as they play without rest. Milwaukee is the opponent, so it won’t be easy, but the Bucks are just 3-4 SU L7 games. Also no one on the Pacers logged more than 35 minutes last night. Playing on back to back days hasn’t been a problem before. They are actually 3-0 straight up and against the spread in such games this season. They are also 4-2 SU and ATS as an underdog. While the Bucks started this homestand by drubbing Portland 134-106, that may not be a good thing as they are 0-3 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more in their last game. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-03-21 | South Carolina v. Florida -8 | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FLORIDA Florida had its season paused in late December, but has really started to get on track of late. An impressive win at Morgantown (West Virginia) on Saturday was the fourth straight game the Gators have been the victors. The 85-80 win over the 11th ranked team in the country also got them in the Top 25 (#22). Now they turn around and will host South Carolina this evening. The Gamecocks have only played 10 games this season and are 4-6. They were not a participant in the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge, but lost over the weekend anyway (at Vanderbilt). That was the fourth loss in five games. South Carolina has lost both games vs. ranked teams this year, neither of which ended up being particularly close. They lost by 11 at Missouri and by 23 to Auburn. One could make the case that Florida is better than those teams. South Carolina has also lost four straight road games, by an average of 9.5 points/game. Florida has won its last three at home by an average of 14 points. Too many injuries for South Carolina to compete vs. a team that just beat two top 15 teams (Tenn, WVU). Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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02-02-21 | Blazers +2 v. Wizards | Top | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland played a terrible game last night in Milwaukee, losing 134-106. The Bucks were coming off two straight losses, a rarity for them, but still there’s rarely an excuse for losing by 28 points. Tonight the Blazers face a Washington team that’s off a shocking win as they defeated Brooklyn 149-147 (a game that ended in regulation!) Saturday night. That was the Wizards’ first win since returning from a long COVID-induced layoff. They’d lost four in a row prior and were beaten soundly in all four games. That they were behind by five with just 10 seconds left against Brooklyn means the Wizards are quite lucky not to be on a 5-game losing streak here. We’re a bit surprised that they are the favorites tonight. Yes the game is in D.C. but the Wizards still have one of the worst records in the NBA at 4-12 SU. Portland has taken the last three meetings. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-02-21 | Tennessee -4 v. Ole Miss | Top | 50-52 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE Tennessee flexed its muscle over the weekend, beating Kansas 80-61, and is now back in the Top 10. Tonight the Vols are at Ole Miss. We’re a bit shocked this line isn’t higher. The Rebels have lost five of seven. While some of those losses were close, none were to teams as good as this.They are not one of the SEC’s better teams. It can’t be understated just how good Tennessee looked on Saturday. They were up 14 by halftime and led by as much as 26 in the second half. They did not allow a single second-chance point! We realize they haven’t had to go on the road very often, but they did win by 20 at Missouri (who is ranked) and by 17 at Texas A&M. A big reason why Ole Miss is losing games is the three-point line. They are shooting 25.9% from long distance in SEC play. Their opponents are shooting 37.4%. This problem reared its ugly head again on Saturday as they were only 2 of 13 from three-point range vs. Georgia, who was 9 of 18. Tennessee is holding opponents to 30% on three pointers. They should win easily tonight. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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02-01-21 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS New Orleans certainly did right by me on Friday. They were able to defeat Milwaukee, right here at home, by a score of 131-126. That scoring output matched the most points allowed by the Bucks in any game this season. So it was a really impressive victory for the Pelicans. Unfortunately, they had to play the next night and lost 126-112 to Houston. That makes it nine losses in the last 12 games for a team that was expected to make the playoffs this year. Sacramento is not a team anyone expects to make the playoffs, so this is a game the Pelicans “have to have.” They’re laying a surprisingly short number, partly because the Kings are 4-0 ATS their last four games, but we’ll lay it. The Kings are just dreadful defensively despite a low-scoring loss in Miami over the weekend. No team in the league allows more points per possession and it’s not really close. The 119.6 points/game allowed by the Kings are the most in the Western Conference. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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02-01-21 | UCF v. Memphis -9 | Top | 69-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS Memphis saw its three-game win streak come to an end on Thursday with a two-point loss at SMU. They did cover the spread though as four point underdogs. It was the fourth consecutive cover by the Tigers, who were 2-9 ATS in their first 11 lined games. Having a couple extra days to prepare for this game with struggling UCF seems like a big deal. The Golden Knights have won only one time in their last seven games and it was against a terrible East Carolina team at home. UCF did play over the weekend and lost in overtime at Wichita State as they let a late eight-point lead slip away. There have been a lot of games this year where the Knights failed to crack 65 points and this figures to be another with Memphis allowing only 59.0 per game at home where they are 7-1 straight up. UCF has lost 12 of its previous 13 visits to Memphis, including by 20 the last time they came here. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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01-31-21 | CS Sacramento v. Eastern Washington -9 | Top | 60-68 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on EASTERN WASHINGTON Eastern Washington started the season 0-3 but has since won 4 of 7 with the three losses all being by five points or less. Last weekend saw the Eagles split a couple games out in Northern Colorado as they lost the first by two points and won the second by six. There haven’t been many home games for the Eagles thus far, only three to be exact, so they should relish the opportunity Sunday when they welcome Sacramento State. The Hornets have also played many close games recently with three of their last four decided by six points or fewer and two of them going to overtime. So a lot of people are going to expect a close game here. But the line, which has EWU favored pretty strongly, is telling. Sacramento State may be 6-3 but they’ve played only three times on the road. They’ve lost two of them. They’ve also lost 9 of the last 10 matchups with Eastern Washington. These teams were actually supposed to play Thursday, but a positive COVID test on the Sacramento State forced a schedule change to Sunday & Monday. The disruption will affect the Hornets more as they have to travel. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON AAA |
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01-30-21 | Pistons v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE There is an interesting pattern this year with Golden State as they have yet to win or lose three in a row. Thursday marked the fifth time they failed to win a third straight game. They lost by 21 at Phoenix, a shocking failure as it was only a five-point deficit at halftime. The problem was that other than Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins, the rest of the team shot just 32 percent (22 of 68). There have been three times so far that the Warriors have lost back to back games. However, each time the second loss came on the road. And those losses were all to really good teams: Milwaukee, Denver and Utah. Tonight they are facing a bad Detroit team and the game is at home. The Pistons are 1-7 on the road and allow 119.0 points per game. Fresh off an upset of the Lakers at home, we say the Pistons are ripe to get blown out Saturday night. When they beat the Lakers, there was no Anthony Davis. LeBron James went uncharacteristically cold in the second half. Curry won’t be cold in this game considering the Pistons defensive woes on the road. The Warriors already beat the Pistons by 10 in Detroit last month. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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01-30-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue -2.5 | Top | 62-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PURDUE While we recognize Purdue is at home, any time an unranked team is favored against a Top 25 opponent, it catches our eye. Minnesota isn’t likely to be ranked for much longer, especially if they lose this game. Our money is on the Golden Gophers losing. Not only did they go down at home to Maryland last Saturday, they are 0-4 on the road this season. They could manage only 49 points vs. the Terps last week. All four road losses have been by at least 12 points. Why are they ranked again? Now Purdue is also looking to bounce back from an ugly loss. They lost by 17 to Michigan last Friday, here in West Lafayette. But that was preceded by a four-game win streak and it was their first home loss. Minnesota is giving up an average of 82.7 points on the road. Leading scorer Carr played the full 40 last Saturday vs. Maryland and scored 25 points. But his teammates could only manage 24 points on 6 of 32 shooting. Look for the Gophers to go down again. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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01-30-21 | TCU v. Missouri -9 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MISSOURI Missouri is off their third loss of the season. They’ve performed quite well off the previous two. After losing by 20 to Tennessee, they came back and won on the road by 13 against Arkansas. After losing by 15 at Mississippi State, they came back and won by 16 at Texas A&M. This time the Tigers get to play at home and they got a fortunate draw in the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge with TCU, who is one of the Big 12’s weaker teams. The Horned Frogs just played their first game in 16 days Thursday and they lost 58-51 at Kansas. After such a long layoff (coach Jamie Dixon had tested positive for COVID), let’s see how they do playing a second road game in three days. Our guess is that it won’t go well. Missouri’s loss on Thursday was to a surging Auburn team that is better than most realize. A poor 1st half cost Mizzou but at home they won’t be getting off to a slow start and they shouldn’t have much problem shutting down a TCU team that averages only 62.9 points away from home. Play on MISSOURI AAA |
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01-29-21 | Manhattan v. St. Peter's -9 | Top | 55-59 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ST. PETERS Manhattan has won three straight games. They were an underdog in all three wins. The last two were at home vs. Niagara. But those games were played almost two weeks ago. They were supposed to play two vs. Monmouth last week, but those games got postponed due to a positive test in the Monmouth program. Playing with this much rest hasn’t gone well for the Jaspers as they are 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they’ve gone on seven or more days' rest. Let’s also talk about the fact that two of their three recent wins were by three points or less. They didn’t even score 60 points in any of them. Then again, St. Peter’s just scored only 40 in a loss at Siena. But something you should know is that this is the Peacocks’ first home game since December 12th! They’ve played seven in a row on the road. They’ve played only three home games, won all of them, and allowed just 51, 54 and 49 points. It’s quite telling that they are such prohibitive favorites here. Manhattan is just 2-7 ATS their previous nine road games. They are shooting an abysmal 32.8% on the road this season. Play on ST PETERS AAA |
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01-29-21 | Bucks v. Pelicans +7 | Top | 126-131 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS Milwaukee is off a fairly big win over Toronto. This is the middle game of a three-game road trip. New Orleans just won, 124-106 against Washington. That was just their second win in 10 games. The Pelicans have only gotten to play six home games though. They are 3-3 in those six, not that great, but the Bucks are only 4-4 on the road. Playing on ESPN, you figure the Pelicans are going to come out highly motivated. The Bucks are just 5-15-1 ATS off a win and 2-6-1 ATS off an ATS win. New Orleans has been a home underdog only one time and they won that game, 120-116 over Toronto. They were actually only a one-point dog in that game. This is likely to be the most points they get in any home game this season (or at least until they play the Lakers). Even though they are just 2-8 the last 10 games, the Pelicans have only been outscored by an average of less than five points per game. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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01-28-21 | Warriors +1.5 v. Suns | Top | 93-114 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE Both the Warriors and Suns were in action last night. The respective results were quite different. Golden State handled its business at home against Minnesota, winning rather easily by a score of 123-111. Rookie James Wiseman led the way with 25 points after Steph Curry had 36 the previous game vs. the Timberwolves. Off that two-game sweep, Golden State now goes to the desert where they’ll face a wounded Suns team that is playing without leading scorer Devin Booker. Last night marked the third straight loss for Phoenix as they fell 102-97 here at home to Oklahoma City. It also marked the fifth loss in the last six games and seventh in the last 10. Last night was especially frustrating for the Suns as they jumped out to an early 17-point lead. But that didn’t last long. Booker isn’t the only one not playing for the Suns right now. Dario Sakic has been out due to COVID, so this team is pretty short-handed right now. You have to imagine that Curry is going to have a bounce back game tonight after missing his first seven shots last night. That’s bad news for a struggling Suns team that is just 1-5 ATS its last six games as a favorite. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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01-28-21 | Gonzaga v. San Diego +28.5 | Top | 90-62 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO Top-ranked Gonzaga continues to “hum along” as they are 15-0 following a 95-49 win against Pacific last Saturday. There has been only one game all season - an 87-82 win vs. West Virginia on December 2nd - that the Zags DIDN’T win by double digits. But they don’t cover as much as you might think. The win against Pacific marked the first time in five games that Mark Few’s team left with the cash. They are just 5-8 ATS the last 13 games as the pointspreads keeping getting higher and higher. The Bulldogs are laying a huge number tonight at San Diego, which is understandable given the Toreros’ record and general inactivity. They’ve played only eight games this season and won just two. But one of the wins was on Saturday as they defeated Portland 78-70 on the road. They won’t win tonight, but this is a ton of points to be getting at home. Gonzaga has just one WCC win - Saturday’s game vs Pacific - that was by a larger margin than what tonight’s spread will end up being. They are just 4-8 ATS on the road laying at least 12.5 and 0-2 laying at least 24.5. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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01-28-21 | TCU v. Kansas -14.5 | Top | 51-59 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 8* on KANSAS Kansas has lost three in a row, all on the road, so they should be in “desperation mode” come Thursday night at Allen Fieldhouse. They’ll be taking on a TCU team that has also lost its last three games, but has not played in 16 days. That’s because of coach Jamie Dixon testing positive for COVID-19, so this team is all out of sorts right now. The Horned Frogs’ three-game losing streak actually began at the hands of Kansas, a 93-64 result in Fort Worth. Since then they’ve lost by 18 to Baylor and by 36 at Oklahoma. This game was supposed to be played Tuesday before getting bumped back due to protocols. The extra 48 hours isn’t nearly enough for TCU to avoid the beatdown they’ve got coming to them. Again, they’ve already lost by 29 at home to Kansas. This is only the third 3-game losing streak for the Jayhawks in the past 25 seasons. They’ve never lost four in a row during that time. At home, their PPG allowed drops down to 63.6. It should be noted that it was three good teams they lost to on the road, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Oklahoma. It’s not as if they were blown out in any of them. All will be well again in Lawrence after tonight. Play on KANSAS AAA |
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01-27-21 | Boise State v. Colorado State +1 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO STATE Boise State is as hot as any team in the country not named Gonzaga or Baylor. The Broncos have won 13 in a row. They are unbeaten in the Mountain West, although we should be clear that they have yet to face any of the top teams in the conference. That changes on Wednesday with a visit to Fort Collins. Colorado State has already knocked off Utah State, who also had been unbeaten in conference play. That was the last time the Rams played and they are now the third place team, trailing only Boise and Utah State. CSU is 8-2 in conference play and we like the fact they are undefeated at home (6-0) where they average 82.2 points/game.Look for the Rams to jump out to a big halftime advantage in this one. They are the best team Boise has faced since a season opening loss to Houston. Play on COLORADO STATE AAA |
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01-27-21 | Celtics -3 v. Spurs | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOSTON After a three-game losing streak that saw them lose twice to the 76ers and in embarrassing fashion to the Knicks, Boston has battled back to win its last two games in very convincing fashion. They took care of the Cavs 141-103 and then the Bulls 119-103. Tonight they are in San Antonio to face a Spurs team that was supposed to play Monday in New Orleans, but didn’t due to COVID-19 protocols. The Spurs last played Sunday when they blew out a Washington team that was playing its first game in two weeks. Before that, the Spurs had lost two straight. With COVID now impacting them, we don’t see the Spurs playing well tonight. Jayson Tatum is now back for the Celtics, who are 4-1 ATS their last five as favorites. It appears that we don’t need to worry about this game not being played. So we’ll lay the points. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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01-27-21 | Miami-FL v. Florida State -12 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FLORIDA STATE Florida State is now ranked #16 in the country. The Seminoles are 9-2 and have won their last four games. The current win streak began with a truly dominating effort where they defeated North Carolina State 105-73. That was the last time we took them. Since then, they’ve rolled North Carolina, Louisville and Clemson. The last two were double digit wins with the Louisville one being particularly impressive as it came on the road. Tonight they welcome Miami to Tallahassee and the Hurricanes are coming off an awful week where they lost 83-57 at Syracuse and 73-59 at home to Notre Dame. Those kind of putrid offensive efforts won’t cut it here. It is especially disconcerting that they could only score 59 against Notre Dame, who is not good defensively. FSU is 8-1 at home and winning by an average of almost 13 points/game. Miami is one of the weaker teams in the ACC this year, so this should be a third straight double digit victory by the Noles. They’ve beaten Miami five straight times, by an average of 10 points. They lead the ACC in points per game at home and have averaged 86.3 their last four at home. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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01-26-21 | Knicks v. Jazz -10.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah is the hottest team in the league right now. They are 8-0 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games. Do not expect any kind of letdown this evening as they are up against the last team to defeat them. Surprisingly, that team is New York. It was on January 6th that the Knicks upset the Jazz 112-100. They were eight-point underdogs at home for that matchup, which saw them trail by as much as 18 at one point. The shocking comeback saw the Knicks outscore the Jazz 68-44 in the second half. But that’s clearly not what you should expect here. Utah led by as many as 40 points Saturday vs. Golden State and won by 19. New York ended up only losing by three Sunday in Portland, but was behind by as many as 25 at one point before pulling off the “backdoor cover.” The Knicks have now lost 7 of 10 as they continue to be wildly inconsistent. We do not fear the possibility of a back door cover this time as the Jazz are out for revenge and have won by double digits in seven of the eight games during the active win streak. Play on UTAH AAA |
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01-26-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -11 | Top | 65-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on AKRON Akron comes in at 8-3 on the season. They are a perfect 6-0 at home. They’ve been red hot lately, winning and covering four straight. A 78.9 points per game scoring average is impressive and it gets even more impressive when you look at only home games as they are averaging 87.0 in those. Eastern Michigan’s resume is quite different. The Eagles have not won a game away from home this season. They are 1-6 ATS in conference play and have lost four in a row by an average of 20.25 points (0-4 ATS). In the previous four road games, you’re looking at an average of 86.5 points/game allowed. Shockingly, EMU won the first meeting between the teams, 71-59 as a 5.5-point dog. But that was obviously in Ypsilanti. So the revenge factor is strong here and we’ve got every reason to believe this Tuesday night matchup in the MAC turns into a blowout. Credit to Akron for allowing their previous opponents to shoot just 28.9% from three-point range this season. That number probably won’t go up after tonight as EMU is shooting just 28.3% from behind the arc, including a woeful 23.5% when on the road. Akron’s average margin of victory at home is 16.2 PPG. Could these teams be any more different heading into this one? Play on AKRON AAA |
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01-25-21 | Thunder v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland didn’t cover the spread last night, but they certainly should have. They led the Knicks by 20 points at halftime only to let that large lead slip away. They won 116-113 as a 3.5-point favorite after scoring just 19 points in the fourth quarter. Tonight they face another bad team, Oklahoma City, who is also playing the second game of a back to back. The Thunder lost Sunday, 108-100 to the Clippers, to fall to 1-5 SU their last 6 games. The only win was by two points at Chicago. Though playing short-handed (no McCollum, Jurkic), we still give the advantage here to the Blazers. The Thunder aren’t a good team. They trailed by 17 on Sunday before making the game closer than it actually was. The same was true in their previous game vs. the Clippers. So it’s very much the opposite for Portland, who played much better last night than what the final score says. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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01-24-21 | Knicks v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 113-116 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND The Knicks are 8-9 and holding down 8th place in the Eastern Conference, which is a lot better than where we thought they’d be at this point of the season. Generally regarded as one of the worst teams in the league coming into the season, New York has been an underdog in virtually all of its games thus far. They’d pulled three consecutive upsets prior to losing 103-94 in Sacramento Friday night. But one easy thing to note here is that they are last in the league in points per game. Portland, who is dealing with some injuries right now, is 8-6 and fourth in the Western Conference. They haven’t played since Monday when they were defeated 125-104 by San Antonio. The Blazers were supposed to face Memphis Wednesday and Friday, but those games had to be cancelled due to the Grizzlies’ COVID-19 issues. "Between getting extra rest and extra reps, the practices have been good for us,"Portland head coach Terry Stotts said. "It helped. There is no question that having extra time to work on things on both ends -- we need to adjust. Different guys will have different roles. From that standpoint, missing these two games was good for us." We’ll put our faith in what the coach had to say as it’s unlikely the Knicks can continue winning regularly. They are 2-6 ATS their last eight games in Portland. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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01-24-21 | San Diego State -17 v. Air Force | Top | 91-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
THIS IS A 10* ON SAN DIEGO STATE By the time Tuesday rolls around, San Diego State and Air Force will have met in three straight games. Here in Colorado Springs, they are used to see things “flying high,” but in this case it’s the Aztecs who came in and took the first game 98-61 as 13-point favorites. That win snapped a 4-game ATS slide and was a nice bounce back for a team that has just gotten swept the week prior by Utah State. The Mountain West is shaping up as a fairly strong league this year with the likes of Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State plus SDSU. Air Force is simply not in the same class as those teams as they are now 0-5 against them with all five losses coming by double digits. The Falcons have won just one time in the last seven games and aren’t even averaging 60 PPG this season. No team in the country takes fewer shots per game. They’ve also given up 77 or more points in five of the last six losses. San Diego State is excellent defensively and is giving up less than 60 PPG on the road. They’ve covered 14 of the last 17 on the road. Five players were in double figures Thursday as the Aztecs picked it up with leading scorer Matt Mitchell on the shelf. More of the same Sunday. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 7* on GREEN BAY We’ve backed Green Bay pretty religiously this season, including playing them in one form or another each of the last three games. They’ve won all three games by at least 14 points, so we’re doing well. Therefore, we can’t deviate from the script here in the NFC Championship vs. Tampa Bay. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense rightly get all the headlines for averaging 33.2 points during a seven-game win streak. But don’t discount a defense that has held five of its last six opponents to 18 points or less. The Pack’s only loss in the L10 games was at Indianapolis where they held a 2 TD lead at halftime. Now they look to avenge one of their other two regular season defeats, and it was the worst one, 38-10 at Tampa Bay. That loss came after a bye and Rodgers threw two interceptions, which is something that almost never happens. One of them was returned for a touchdown and the other set the Bucs up at the 2-yard line for another easy score. This time the game is in Lambeau where GB has outscored teams by 12.4 points/game this year. Remember that the Packers just put up 32 points last week on a Rams defense that was considered to be the best in the league. They’ve had one more day of rest than has Tampa Bay, whose win over New Orleans should be credited to a +4 turnover differential. Rodgers takes better care of the football this time and goes on to his second Super Bowl. AAA |
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01-23-21 | Warriors +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE Utah is on a 7-0 SU/ATS run here, but actually had to rally from a double digit deficit to win against New Orleans Thursday night. We were glad to see that seeing as we were on the Jazz, but it’s time to reverse course Saturday when Golden State comes to town. As good as Utah has been recently, not sure it’s going to continue over the course of the season. They’ve beaten some bad teams during this win streak. Against opponents that come in at .500 or better, they are just 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Golden State hasn’t done well as a favorite so far, but the last time they were an underdog, they upset the Lakers Monday night. That was a Lakers team that, like the Jazz here, were on a big winning streak. The Warriors suffered an embarrassing defeat in their last game, to the Knicks, and you know they’re going to want to bounce back from that. Before that, they’d not only beaten the Lakers, but also the Spurs by 22 points. Take the points in this matchup. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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01-23-21 | Duke +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DUKE Duke simply has not been good this year as they are 5-4 SU and 1-8 ATS. Dealing with COVID-19 hasn’t helped and here the Blue Devils hope to avoid an 0-3 road trip when they head to Louisville. The home team has its own problems right now as they’ve also lost two in a row, though the last one came at home to Florida State by 13 points. Only one of these traditional powers can get off the mat Saturday and it’s interesting that this is just the second time this season that Duke is an underdog. We’re seeing value in the number here. This is the first time they’ve lost two straight and you’ve got to think they’ll shoot better as a team here than they did vs. Pitt earlier in the week. Jalen Johnson had a monster effort in that game, going for 24 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists, four blocks and zero turnovers. Duke is the more talented team here. Louisville does not shoot the three well and actually trailed Florida State 40-16 in the first half on Monday. The road team has won the last two times these schools have faced off. Why can’t it be three in a row? Play on DUKE AAA |
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01-23-21 | NC State +6.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 76-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NC STATE North Carolina State is in desperation mode here as they’re off to an 0-3 start to 2021. Fortunately for the Wolfpack, this is a down year in the ACC and rival UNC isn’t doing much better. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 ATS in ACC play and that includes a 79-76 loss in Raleigh right before Christmas. North Carolina has won four of its last five games straight up, however all of those wins came by seven or less and two were by a combined three points. So this team isn’t winning by any kind of margin right now and we’ll back the underdog. This is NC State’s 1st game in 10 days due to a pair of COVID-19 postponements. Last time we saw them, we faded and boy was that a smart decision as they lost by 32 at Florida State, 105-73 as a 3.5-point underdog. There’s no way to dress that loss up, but we see no reason why the Wolfpack should be getting more points from UNC than they were from FSU. Prior to that season-worst showing, NC State’s last four games had all been decided by five or less. Florida State somehow shot 70.7% against them, something no future opponent will do, including UNC. They’ve beaten the Tar Heels once and can do it again. Play on NC STATE AAA |
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01-22-21 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Ducks | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COL -1.5 (Puck Line) Colorado lost last night in Los Angeles, 4-1. That was a very shocking result when you consider the Avs were -230 on the money line and had just beaten the Kings two days earlier. Now it’s onto Anaheim where they’ll face a Ducks team that has scored a league-low six goals in four games. Considering the Avalanche scored eight goals in one game, this would appear to be a severe mismatch. Colorado had a 2-0 lead last night after jumping out to a 3-0 lead the game before. We expect them to win this one by multiple goals. Anaheim’s top two lines are really struggling right now and when you look at the preseason projections, you’ll see Colorado was pegged for the top of West while the Ducks were expected to be at the bottom. The Avs have won the last five times they’ve been off a game where they scored two goals or less. Play on COLORADO -1.5 AAA |
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01-22-21 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas-Arlington | Top | 66-59 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UT ARLINGTON Texas Arlington watched its three-game win streak come to an end last Saturday as they fell into a huge halftime hole against Louisiana and never recovered. Now 3-3 in the Sun Belt, the Mavericks are tied with the team they face tonight, Little Rock, in the West Division. Little Rock has dropped three of four including two to first place Texas State last weekend. Three of those four games, including the one win, were decided by four points or less. But the pointspread won’t be a factor tonight and we don’t think the Trojans have enough offense to keep pace. They are 1-6 ATS playing with five or six days rest. They are also 4-13 ATS off their last 17 conference losses. TX-Arlington averages 87.8 points/game at home this year so they must be respected here and we don’t see them losing for a third time this season to Little Rock. Those first two games, played at the start of 2021, were played in Little Rock. The Trojans starting PG (Nowell) is suspended. Play on UT ARLINGTON AAA |
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01-22-21 | Cal Poly v. Cal-Irvine -16.5 | Top | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UC IRVINE Cal Poly is not a good team, something that should be readily apparent via their 2-8 won-loss record. The Mustangs show up tonight on a six-game losing streak and the last five (losses) have all come by at least 13 points. They are also 0-5-1 ATS during the losing streak. Their only two wins were against a non-board team (Bethesda) back in November and San Jose State last month. San Jose State is a dreadful team and they only won that game by 4. The Mustangs have five losses by at least 17 points this year. So Cal Irvine has to be licking its chops Friday as they look to continue to a four-game win streak.This is the Anteaters first game in almost two weeks, so they’re fresh. Meanwhile, Cal Poly lost twice at home last week. On the road, they are barely scoring 50 points/game! Cal Irvine is 4-0 at home, averaging 84.2 points while giving up only 58.0. Expect a very one-sided affair. Play on UC IRVINE AAA |
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01-21-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -7 | Top | 118-129 | Win | 101 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH We learned our lesson in the previous matchup between these teams, which went down Tuesday and saw the Jazz emerge victorious by a score of 118-102. They covered the spread too, as 6.5-point favorites. It was the sixth straight win and cover for a Utah team that is playing as well as anyone in the league right now. We had the Pelicans Tuesday, but not again here as they can’t seem to buy a victory with just one in the previous seven games. In its last five games, Utah has given up an average of just 94.2 points. New Orleans hasn’t been good offensively, save for the win against Sacramento, who happens to be the worst defensive team in the NBA. The Jazz have become absolutely lethal from behind the three-point line, a fact the Pelicans know all too well as they helplessly watched the Jazz make 21 3PA on Tuesday. It was the fourth time in the last six games Utah made at least 20 threes! This is very much the third best team in the West right now. Play on UTAH AAA |
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01-21-21 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Kings | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
THIS IS AN INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY! NO ACTION! |
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01-21-21 | Indiana v. Iowa -10 | Top | 81-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA Iowa is a really good basketball team. Ranked #4 in the country (and deservedly so), the Hawkeyes have won five straight games and covered the spread in all five. Four of the five wins have come by double digit margins. Tonight they host an Indiana team that is coming off a very disappointing home loss to Purdue last Thursday. The Hoosiers were four-point favorites in that one and expected to snap a 7-game losing streak to the Boilermakers, but instead were dealt an 81-69 defeat. They were then supposed to play Michigan State on Sunday, but that was postponed. While shooting just 3 of 18 from behind the 3-point line certainly hurt against Purdue, a much graver concern tonight for IU is the fact they’ve surrendered an average of 78.7 points the last three games. Iowa is as good as it gets offensively, leading the Big 10 in scoring at 92.2 points/game. They’ve got a Player of the Year candidate in Luke Garza and have covered 10 of the 12 games they’ve been favored in this season. Lay it! Play on IOWA AAA |
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01-20-21 | Pistons v. Hawks -5 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The Hawks are still looking to regain that early season form. Monday’s 108-97 win against Minnesota was definitely a “step in the right direction” and now they can get back to .500 with a win today over Detroit, which shouldn’t be difficult considering the Pistons are the worst team in the league. The spread isn’t even that high. Atlanta began the year 4-1 but has lost six of eight. Both wins were at home though and the Pistons have just one road win so far and it came against a severely depleted Miami Heat squad. Detroit is just 3-10 SU overall following a loss to the Heat on Monday. Atlanta won 128-120 when these teams played on December 28th and while they failed to cover, that’s because they were laying 11 points. The line is much shorter this time, probably due to recent form, but the Pistons very much remain a terrible team while we believe the Hawks are among the league’s most improved squads this season. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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01-19-21 | Pelicans +6 v. Jazz | Top | 102-118 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS The Jazz have looked really good of late, not only winning - but also covering - five in a row. The win streak began with an upset in Milwaukee, but since then it’s been four straight as favorites. They are laying points again tonight vs. a New Orleans team that just ended a five-game LOSING streak by defeating Sacramento 128-123 on Sunday. This is the first of two games these teams will play over the next three days. While it won’t be as easy for Pelicans to score here as it was Sunday, we still like them plus the points in this scenario as each of the previous four meetings have been close with two of them decided by just two points each. Just not convinced that Utah is as dominant as they’ve looked recently, plus this is kind of a letdown spot following the win in Denver Sunday, which was a big revenge game stemming from last year’s playoffs. The Jazz are only 2-2 SU at home. They are just 6-14-2 ATS L22 here. Three Pelicans topped 20 points on Sunday. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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01-19-21 | Ball State v. Miami-OH +4 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH Miami hosts Ball State for some Tuesday night “MACtion” and the RedHawks will be looking to bounce back from a 17-point defeat to their rivals (Ohio) last week. That loss took place on the road where the team is now 0-3 on the year and not looked good. But at home, the RedHawks have gone a solid 4-1. The one loss did come in conference play, vs. Buffalo, but a win their last time here (70-58 over N Illinois) was sufficient enough for us to believe they can win here, or at least cover the spread. Ball State is 6-5 SU but they’ve gotten to play N Illinois twice so far (N Illinois is very bad). Considering they’ve lost four games by double digits, the Cardinals don’t exactly appear to be a strong road favorite, a role they’ve been in only one other time this season … against (you guessed it) N Illinois. Miami does an excellent job at forcing turnovers and limiting second-chance opportunities. Their problem has been the opponents can’t seem to miss. In three league games, they’ve allowed a shooting percentage of 52.4, but our view is that number HAS to come down. Home team has covered four of the last five meetings and Miami is 11-4-1 ATS L16 as a home dog. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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01-18-21 | Bucks v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 123-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BROOKLYN This might be the last time this season we see Brooklyn as a home underdog. We’ll seize the opportunity. James Harden’s first game with the Nets probably couldn’t have gone much better as he notched a triple double and Kevin Durant scored 42 points. Admittedly, that was against the Magic. But having two players like Harden and Durant make the Nets a top three team in the league. Kyrie Irving, whose status is questionable, becomes more “expendable” with the arrival of Harden. While the Bucks have won seven of eight, three of those wins were versus Detroit. They too beat Orlando, as well as bad teams like Chicago and Cleveland. Really, the only “good” team they’ve beaten recently was Dallas on Friday and that win came by just three points. This is a big statement game for a Brooklyn team that has lost eight straight times at home to the Bucks. That streak ends tonight. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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01-18-21 | Spurs v. Blazers +2 | Top | 125-104 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND San Antonio and Portland’s recent form is quite similar as both won Saturday in come from behind fashion. The Spurs have five of their last seven games while the Blazers have won five of six. In both cases, strong play at the defensive end keyed the Saturday victories. The Spurs actually found themselves down double digits in the first half to a very undermanned Houston squad (who had just eight players suit up) before taking control late. Portland trailed Atlanta by seven at the break but allowed just 20 points in the third and fourth quarters. We side with the home team in this MLK Day afternoon game. The Spurs have been strong on the road (5-2) thus far, but did lose at Minnesota as a favorite. We found it curious to see them favored in this one. Maybe that’s because of the injuries, but Damian Lillard is still here and his 36 points led the way vs. Atlanta. The Spurs are just 8-20-1 ATS their last 29 games as a favorite. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS The old adage “it’s hard to be the same team three times in one season” is kind of a lie. Teams that swept the regular season games have gone 14-8 straight up in the playoff meeting. That’s the situation New Orleans is in here. They beat Tampa Bay 34-23 in Week 1 and then 38-3 in Week 9. They are playing this game at home where they just easily defeated Chicago in the Wild Card Round, 21-9. The only touchdown given up by the Saints defense came with no time left on the clock. The last three weeks have seen them allow just 212 rush yards total. They are giving up just 306.8 yards per game this year. The last two games, the Saints have allowed only 16 points. This defense always does a good job of containing Tampa Bay’s best receiver Mike Evans. Though it wasn’t a banner game for the offense against the Bears, they are now fully healthy on that side of the ball and should be better this week. Don’t see the Saints losing at home. They have covered the last four times as home favorites. In games against teams with winning records, the Buccaneers have lost four of five. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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01-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL These Conference USA teams are playing for the second time in three days. Only this time, the game is in Huntington, WV. On Friday, it was Western Kentucky winning at home, 81-73, to snap a 5-game ATS losing streak. The Hilltoppers are now 10-4 straight up, but only 4-10 against the spread. Marshall is now 7-3 SU and has not lost two straight this season. Off a loss, they’ve won by 14 and by 7. They are also 4-1 at home where they average 82.2 points/game. The big difference in Friday’s game came at the free throw line where WKU went 19 of 21 while Marshall was only 2 of 5. Now the home team, the Thundering Herd will not be facing a discrepancy like that again. They’ve lost four straight to WKU, so the revenge angle goes beyond just Friday. It’s not like Marshall is a drastically inferior side. In fact, they are favored, a role they’ve won in 35 of the past 47 times. With such a short number, we won’t hesitate to lay it as WKU has not covered two straight games since it opened the season 2-0. Also, the Hilltoppers are 0-2 this season when facing a team for the second time. They failed to sweep both La Tech and Charlotte after winning the first game of a two-game set. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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01-16-21 | Pistons v. Heat -2 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI The Pistons didn’t play last night because their scheduled opponent (Washington) didn’t have enough players. Tonight they are set to face another team ravaged by COVID, Miami, who has had eight players miss the previous two games. Despite that disadvantage, the Heat hung tough in both games vs. Philadelphia. The first game went to overtime and while the second was a 17-point loss, we think they’re better than that. If there was ever a team the Heat could hope to face here, it would be Detroit, who is NOT better than its 2-9 record. Their only two wins have been by a total of eight points and in one of them, they trailed by 20+ before storming back to win in overtime. To be fair, the Pistons were expected to be the worst team in the East this year. Our view is that Miami takes this game very seriously and their skeleton crew will still be able to defeat the team with the worst record in the league. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 18-32 | Win | 100 | 41 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY This is just a bad draw for the Rams as they head to the cold of Lambeau Field in Green Bay. While their top ranked defense was able to shut down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks last week, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have the advantage of coming off a bye. The truth is Seattle’s offense had been in decline for some time. Green Bay led the NFL in points scored with Rodgers having a MVP season. He’s 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams. Los Angeles is really banged up - on both sides of the football. Aaron Donald will play, but is less than 100 percent and no offensive line succeeded more in both pass blocking and run blocking than the Packers. Them facing an injured Donald is a big break. So is the Rams QB situation from the perspective of the Green Bay defense. John Wolford has been ruled out, which means Jared Goff and his broken thumb gets the start. Goff was not particularly effective in last week’s Wild Card win and WR Cooper Kupp is questionable to play here. This will be the Rams’ 4th consecutive big game while the Packers are rested. Teams off an upset win in the Wild Card Round have gone just 25-35 ATS in the Divisional Round. Goff has never won a game in his career when the temperature was below freezing. Don’t forget the Rams lost to the Jets last month. The Packers are simply better. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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01-16-21 | Wofford v. Chattanooga +2 | Top | 77-59 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHATTANOOGA This is a key battle in the Southern Conference, especially from Chattanooga’s perspective. The Mocs were 9-0, but have dropped three of five to fall into sixth place in the standings. All three losses have been by five points or less, so it’s not like they’ve played a bad game. On Wednesday, they did defeat Mercer 83-80 and now get a shot at one of the teams ahead of them in the standings, Wofford. The Terriers are also coming off a narrow win, theirs by just two points (80-78) over VMI. This will be their third consecutive road game as they also defeated NC Greensboro by three (48-45) in a much different style game from the one vs. VMI. Three road games in seven days is a tough ask in any league and considering Wofford could easily be 0-2 on this trip, we say “their time is up” today. Chattanooga is 29-14 ATS L43 as an underdog including 4-0 this year. They are a more veteran team compared to Wofford, who has failed to cover the spread off their previous four wins (were -6 vs. VMI). Play on CHATTANOOGA AAA |
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01-16-21 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii -1 | Top | 60-55 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII Late night in Honolulu we get Hawaii hosting Cal State Bakersfield. This will be just the fifth game of the year of the home team. The first two were against non-Division I opponents, both of whom also hailed from “the island.” Those games were played in mid-December. The Warriors finally returned to the court last weekend with a pair of games at UC Riverside. They split the pair, winning the first one by five and losing the second by two. But they covered both, as a six and five point underdog, respectively. It’s basically a pick ‘em tonight and we don’t agree with that, even though CS Bakersfield has won its last three games. One of those three wins was on the road, but overall the Roadrunners are just 2-4 away from home compared to 5-0 at home. Hawaii has the best home court advantage in the Big West and if not for a last second shot by UC Riverside in the last game, the Warriors very well could have gone on to win that game and still be undefeated. This will be Cal State Bakersfield’s 1st trip to Honolulu as a member of the Big West Conference. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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01-14-21 | Warriors +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 104-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE Denver was looking at a possible third consecutive win on Tuesday when they faced Brooklyn. Things started off well enough as the Nuggets jumped out to an 18-point lead in that game. But they blew it and ended up losing 122-116, thereby denying them a winning record. They’ve yet to be over .500 at any point this season, a disappointment after finishing 2nd and 3rd in the Western Conference each of the previous two seasons. Tonight, they’ll play host to the Warriors, who are a game over .500 as they look to rebound from a dismal 2019-20 campaign. Golden State also lost Tuesday, 104-95 to Indiana, as they too squandered a halftime lead. But only one of these teams can bounce back tonight in the second game of the TNT doubleheader. We’re siding with the Warriors, mainly due to the fact Denver is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite so far. Defensively, Golden State has been better than Denver this season and we see Steph Curry possibly “going off” here after being held to 20 points or fewer in three of the last four games. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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01-14-21 | Pepperdine v. Gonzaga -25.5 | Top | 70-95 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GONZAGA Gonzaga’s exploits need little introduction at this point as the #1 team in the country has won its 12 games by an average of nearly 23 points. They lead the country in scoring, averaging a ridiculous 96.1 points/game. The latest victim is going to be Pepperdine, who visits Spokane tonight. The Waves are simply not up to this task as they haven’t even played since Christmas and their last two games have been losses by 28 (to Cal State Bakersfield) and by 12 (to Cal Santa Barbara). Those losses were both at home. In fact, this is going to be just their second road game of the season. Gonzaga just hung 116 points on Portland its last time out. The only reason they did not cover is because they were asked to lay 32.5 points! (They won by 28). Pepperdine actually covered both meetings last season, but as you’d expect it’s Gonzaga that’s dominated the rivalry. The Zags have beaten Pepperdine 39 straight times going back to 2002 and haven’t lost at them at home since 1998! The straight up result is obviously in little doubt tonight, so it comes down to whether or not Mark Few’s team can cover the number. We think they will as a team that loses by 28 at home to Cal State Bakersfield is up against it here. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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01-13-21 | Texas Tech +3.5 v. Texas | Top | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-13-21 | Bucks -10 v. Pistons | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks have really had the Pistons number the last few seasons. They’ve won 13 in a row over their Central Division rivals with two of those victories coming last week. Most of the games haven’t been close either. The Bucks have gone 11-1-1 ATS in those 13 straight wins and the two last week were by 10 and 15 points. They didn’t cover the first one as they were huge 16-point favorites. The number is a lot more advantageous tonight in Detroit. It’s not like there’s much of a home court advantage for the Pistons. They just lost here on Sunday, 96-86 to the Jazz. Detroit has just two wins, one of which was in overtime after they overcame a 23-point deficit. They are one of the worst teams in the league while the Bucks very much remain the best. No team can touch the Bucks’ league-leading point differential and/or net efficiency rating. They are averaging 121.9 points/game while allowing only 110.3. All seven wins have come by double digits. No reason this shouldn’t be #8. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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01-13-21 | NC State v. Florida State -4 | Top | 73-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on FSU Florida State and NC State have some things in common. Both are 0-3 ATS their last three games. Both are off a loss. NC State has dropped two in a row, one of those coming against Clemson, who also beat FSU. But something will have to give Wednesday night in Tallahassee and we believe it will be the home team breaking through. There’s no shame in losing to Clemson (as NC State knows) and that was the Seminoles’ first road game of the season. It was also just their second loss, the only other one being a shocker at the hands of UCF. The Clemson game took place all the way back on 12/29 as Covid 19 has claimed their last two scheduled games. So it will be an angry home team tonight that hasn’t taken the floor in over two weeks. NC State has played three times since FSU last took the floor and coming off back to back close losses (both by five points or less), the Wolfpack are at a disadvantage. NC State has covered only one of its last six games. If not for inactivity, FSU would likely still be a Top 25 team. Lay it! Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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01-12-21 | Cal-Riverside v. USC -14.5 | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USC USC has been rolling of late and we don’t see that stopping tonight as they step outside Pac 12 play for a home game against UC Riverside Tuesday night. The Trojans have won their last three games by an average of almost 14 points per game. Those three wins were against teams that are all stronger than what they face here. UC Riverside does have a 15 point win over a Pac 12 team, Washington, but that was early in the year and the Huskies are not very good. After a month off due to Covid cancellations, the Highlanders have played two games, both against Hawaii, and they went 0-2 ATS in those games. It was a five-point loss and a two-point win, games that they were favored to win. USC is the best team they’ve faced so far and all-time they are 0-6 SU vs. the Trojans. USC does an outstanding job defensively and cleaning up the glass. Those advantages should be on full display here. Play on USC AAA |
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01-12-21 | Spurs v. Thunder +2.5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKC Oklahoma City continues to be a great bet, especially when getting points, as they’ve won and covered each of their last three games - all of them as the underdog. The Thunder held the best ATS record in the league last season and are already off to a strong 6-3 start at the betting window this season. They are on a 48-25 ATS roll as underdogs and once again they’re getting points tonight as they host San Antonio. This isn’t the “Spurs of old” either. They just lost 96-88 in Minnesota Sunday, as a favorite, which was their fifth loss in eight games. They’ve been favored in only two games this season, those being the last two - both of which were vs. the Timberwolves. Not only did they lose outright on Sunday, but they failed to cover in a win Saturday. Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip which began exactly seven days ago. So this is likely a tired team, one that is playing without DeMar DeRozan, the team leader in scoring and assists. Oklahoma City hasn’t won at home yet (0-3), but the fact they just went 4-1 SU on a five-game road trip tells us they are ready to. Grab the home team plus the points. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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01-12-21 | Kansas -3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS Kansas has recovered nicely from the ugly loss to Texas that kicked off the new year. The 6th ranked Jayhawks have now won two straight, beating TCU by 29 on the road and Oklahoma by four at home. They are back on the road tonight against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys just won 70-54 at Kansas State and also recently upset Texas Tech on the road. But they’ve lost three of five since a 6-0 start. While all three losses came by no more than three points, we view them as being clearly outclassed tonight in Stillwater. Kansas has won the last five head to head meetings, doing so by an average of 14 points/game. OSU looks like they could be short-handed for this game as well. Four players are currently listed as questionable. Not ideal when taking on a team as good as Kansas. Play on KANSAS AAA |
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01-11-21 | Raptors v. Blazers -5 | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND After seeing them lose last night at Golden State, it’s pretty obvious that this Raptors team is a “far cry” from the one that won the NBA Championship just two years ago. It’s not just that they lost to the team they beat in the 2019 Finals, it’s a 2-7 start to this season. Kawhi Leonard is obviously long gone and this just isn’t the same team that lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Probably the only positive coming out of last night is that Toronto snapped a streak of four straight games allowing 120 points or more. They did a good job keeping Steph Curry in check. But they still lost and were down 15 going into the fourth quarter! That’s a bad sign as they get ready to face a Portland team that was off Sunday. The Blazers have won two in a row by an average of 22 points/game. They’ve scored 122 or more in four of the last five games. The fact that the Raptors aren’t able to play any games in Toronto is going to continue to catch up with them and this team is 0-4 ATS so far coming off a straight up loss as a favorite (they were -2.5 at GSW). Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +8 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -105 | 198 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE We thought the Alabama-Notre Dame spread was too high and got a “back door” cover there. Similarly, we think this spread is too high. Ohio State played a remarkable game vs. Clemson, jumping all over the Tigers in the first half and beating them 49-28. This is a team that has not lost and has scored 38 or more in every game but one. Obviously, Covid is a concern for the Buckeyes going into this CFP Championship Game as is the health of QB Fields. But we still seem them sticking with the Crimson Tide. Don’t forget Nick Saban’s defense gave up 46 points in the SEC Championship Game. Buckeyes RB Trey Sermon is the key as he’s gone for more than 500 yards in the last two games. Back in 2014, a OSU team that wasn’t given much of a chance beat Bama 42-35 in the semifinal. The Buckeyes are as talented as any team in the country and not an underdog very often. The Clemson line never should have been that big. This one should be under a touchdown. OSU is 19-7 ATS L26 as a dog including 5-2 in the bowls. Alabama is just 1-4 ATS its last five bowl games. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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01-11-21 | Colorado v. Utah +3.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH The home team has gone 6-0 ATS in the previous six meetings between these Pac 12 rivals. Utah gets to play host on Monday as it hopes to end a three-game losing streak. Two of those losses came on the road (UCLA and USC) and then the Utes did lose here in Salt Lake City over the weekend, 79-73 to Oregon. That was a very discouraging defeat when you consider how well Utah shot the ball (55.8 FG%) and the fact they had a 10-point halftime advantage. Thanks to turnovers, the Utes really fell apart late. But don’t expect that to happen again. The Utes are 9-2 SU and ATS their last 11 times hosting Colorado. This game wasn’t supposed to be played until March 6th, but CU had a COVID cancellation over the weekend and decided to move the game up. An “impromptu” road game sounds difficult when you consider that the Buffaloes are 11-40-1 ATS on the road when facing an opponent that has a winning record at home. All three Colorado losses this year have come on the road, two of them by double digits. Play on UTAH AAA |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -6 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -103 | 102 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH So the Browns, who could barely beat the Steelers at home with Mason Rudolph playing QB, now have to travel to Pittsburgh to face Big Ben and will do so without their head coach Kevin Stefanski (COVID list). That’s problematic. Cleveland was only 6-10 ATS in the regular season, the worst ATS record among the 14 playoff teams. That includes 0-6 ATS vs. division opponents. Baker Mayfield is just 9-14 ATS on the road in his career. Not only could the Browns barely beat Rudolph and some other Steelers backups last week, they lost 38-7 here in Pittsburgh. The Browns actually gave up more points than they scored in the regular season. They got here because of a 7-2 record in one-score games and beating plenty of bad teams. It can’t be understated how big of a disadvantage not having your head coach (who happens to double as the play caller) is. The Steelers’ defense is excellent at defending play action, which is when Mayfield is at his best. There will be Browns players out for this game as well including OL Bitoni and pass rusher Vernon. The facility was closed for much of the week. They’ve lost 17 in a row at Pittsburgh. Remember the Steelers were 11-0? Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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01-10-21 | Nuggets v. Knicks +6.5 | Top | 114-89 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW YORK The Knicks, even though they came up short Friday in OKC, have been a pleasant surprise in the early going with a 5-4 won-loss record. Denver has been a major disappointment as they are just 4-5 straight up and 2-7 against the spread. They are off a win yesterday, but it came at the expense of a severely depleted Philadelphia team that had only seven available players. All four Nuggets wins this year have come with rest. So this second night of a back to back - where they are laying points on the road - does not seem like a good situation to back them. The only other time they played without rest was when they lost by 10 at Sacramento. As underdogs, the Knicks have covered five of six and all five covers were also SU wins. They did lead the Thunder early - by as many as 11 - on Friday. Denver has lost four games that it has been favored in so far. We think its pretty clear the Nuggets aren’t as good as they were a season ago while the Knicks seem to be much improved. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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01-10-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VA Tech Virginia Tech is having a much better season than Notre Dame as the Hokies are 8-2 compared to just 3-6 for the Fighting Irish. Va Tech is off one of its two losses, which was by just a bucket at Louisville. Look for them to bounce back from that 2-point defeat on Sunday as they are 6-1 in Blacksburg where they’re winning by more than 10 points per game. The Louisville game was the first true road game of the season. On their home court, they’ve defeated the likes of Clemson and don’t forget a very impressive neutral site victory against Villanova. Notre Dame also came up just short on the road in its last game, a one-point loss to UNC. But before that, they’d lost by at least nine to Duke, Purdue and Virginia. Two of the Irish’s three wins have been against Detroit and Bellarmine. The other was by a single point over Kentucky. Need I remind you that the Hokies are ranked #19 in the country? They don’t lose at home very often and Notre Dame is 0-3 ATS the last three times its taken the court with at least seven days rest. Play on VA TECH AAA |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +8.5 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 78 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON No one thinks Washington belongs here, but that’s okay by us as we’re taking the points. The Football Team was really solid down the stretch, going 5-2 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games. Both losses were when Alex Smith did not start. While there will be much focus on what Smith can or can’t do in light of his injury, we are very bullish on what the Washington defense WILL do. They should get after Tom Brady and everyone knows that pressure is the way to limit Brady’s success. Seven straight Washington opponents have been held to 20 points or fewer. The Bucs may not have WR Mike Evans, who is a gametime decision. While everyone will call this a “mismatch,” big road favorites in the playoffs are rare and unprofitable. There have been only three instances of the road team laying more than six points since 1970. None of those three teams covered. They actually all lost outright! Since the 1982 strike, there have been only two 7-9 teams to make the playoffs (before Washington this year). Both won on Wild Card Weekend. Not saying the Football Team wins here, but they’ll definitely make it interesting. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE Division rivals Seattle and Los Angeles met twice during the regular season and the home team won both games. Both games were also low-scoring and stayed Under. The Rams won 23-16 the first time around with Seattle returning the favor 20-9 two weeks ago here at CenturyLink Field. The big story heading into this weekend’s rubber match centers around who will be playing quarterback for the Rams. Jared Goff recently underwent thumb surgery, causing him to miss the team’s final regular season game. While the Rams still won last week, that was against a flailing Cardinals team whose own QB was injured. Whether it’s Goff or John Wolford, the Rams have not scored an offensive touchdown in two weeks and they’ve scored only 71 points total the last four games. The Seahawks have Russell Wilson and while his second half numbers declined (after an amazing first half of the season), he is - by far- the better starting QB in this game. Don’t discount the improvement we’ve seen from the Seattle defense over the last eight games either. They have not given up more than 23 points to anybody in that stretch. Safety Jamal Adams, the reason for the improvement, has said he will play Saturday (his 1st playoff game). The Seahawks have won 11 straight playoff games when favored including all seven with Wilson. The Rams defense allows 10 points/game more on the road than they do at home. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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01-09-21 | Seton Hall v. DePaul +4 | Top | 76-68 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Depaul Depaul takes the court for the just 4th time this season and it’s against a Seton Hall team that was recently manhandled in an 89-53 loss to Creighton. Now the Blue Demons are no Creighton, but they are at home, which is a place they have not played at since a 91-72 win against Western Illinois right before Christmas. Seton Hall is 8-5 straight up (9-4 ATS), so it has actually been a good season for them despite what happened vs. Creighton. The Pirates were on a 7-1 SU/ATS run before that ugly loss on Wednesday. But we don’t like them laying points on the road in this instance. The only other time they had to do it, they lost at Rhode Island early in the season. There were no positives at all from the Pirates’ last game as they shot just 33% while letting Creighton shoot 59.6%. They were down 42 at one point! A loss like that can wound a team’s psyche. Coming into the season, the Hall had been 0-6 ATS immediately after a game where they allowed at least 80 points. They are 4-11 ATS off a Big East loss. Play on Depaul AAA |
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01-08-21 | North Dakota +11 v. Oral Roberts | Top | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH DAKOTA North Dakota isn’t all that good (2-9 SU record), but Oral Roberts probably shouldn’t be laying double digits to anybody. ORU has covered its last six lined games, but four of those were SU losses where they were underdogs of at least 10 points. They did sweep Omaha last week, winning 95-83 and 86-75, to get Summit League play off to a nice start. But they were short favorites for both games. You should look for North Dakota to be competitive Friday night, even though they really haven’t been on the road thus far. This basically boils down to the fact that Oral Roberts has not been favored by more than three points against anyone this season. They hadn’t been favored - in any game - before the sweep of Omaha last weekend nor had they beaten a single Division I opponent! We don’t think North Dakota is as bad as the oddsmakers seem to as they’ve done a decent job defensively in conference play, holding teams to just 64.0 points/game. The Fighting Hawks are 4-0 ATS following a double digit loss at home. Grab the points in this one. Play on NORTH DAKOTA AAA |
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01-08-21 | Ohio +3.5 v. Toledo | Top | 78-95 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO Ohio U has not beaten Toledo once in its last five tries and this time they’ve got to face the Rockets when they are on a six-game win streak and have covered five straight. But while Ohio had a rough three-game stretch at the end of 2020 - losing to Marshall, Akron and Bowling Green - they’ve rebounded nicely with wins over Ball State and Northern Illinois to start 2021. The Bobcats did hang with Illinois earlier this season (lost by just two in Champaign-Urbana) and are one of the better offensive teams in the MAC with a 55.7 effective field goal percentage, which ranks 26th in the country. That they’ve been able to maintain that offensive efficiency despite playing without leading scorer Jason Preston (questionable for tonight) the last three games is pretty impressive. Toledo won by just two points its last time out and while they were three-point underdogs, they don’t have the luxury of winning by such a narrow margin again tonight. We smell upset tonight in the Mid-American Conference. You should take the points here. Play on OHIO AAA |
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01-07-21 | BYU +17.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GONZAGA In our view, you won’t find a better team in the country than Gonzaga, who is not just 10-0 but also winning their games by an average margin of 30.6 points per game. They just blew out one of the better WCC teams (San Francisco) in their last game, 85-62, which was the Zags’ fourth straight victory by at least 23 points. One of those was against Virginia, so it’s not like it’s been all bad teams they’ve been facing. Like we said earlier, San Francisco is a good team and they destroyed them. Now comes BYU, also recognized as one of the potential “challengers” to Gonzaga’s reign of dominance in this conference. Don’t look for this one to be close either. BYU has already been beaten once this year by 26 points (USC) and also lost at home to Boise State. Complicating matters for the visitors is the fact Gonzaga will be out to avenge a late-season loss from last year. The three prior meetings all saw the Zags win by at least 23 points. Look for another 20+ point win tonight. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Brooklyn’s first game without Kevin Durant (in quarantine) could not possibly have gone any better as they thwarted the Jazz 130-96 as a 5-point home underdog. Oddsmakers have apparently NOT learned their lesson as they’ve once again installed the Nets as home dogs tonight vs. Philadelphia. Granted, the Sixers have the best overall record in the Eastern Conference at 7-1. However, look at who they’ve played: Washington twice, New York, Cleveland, Toronto, Orlando and Charlotte twice. All are struggling teams that we don’t think are going to finish anywhere near the top of the standings. This is the second game of a back to back for Philly as they won a wild 141-136 game against the Wizards last night. We’ve got these teams rated pretty evenly, so it’s a mistake to have Brooklyn as an underdog at home even with Durant out, given the Sixers are playing without rest. Kyrie Irving made his first nine shots against Utah and finished with 29 points. He may not be quite as prolific tonight, but we don’t need him to be. All we are looking for is a win, it doesn’t need to be by 34 points like we saw Monday. There is no way the shots are going to fall for Philly tonight the way they did Wednesday. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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01-06-21 | Boston College v. Duke -11 | Top | 82-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DUKE It’s been almost a month (12/16) since Duke last took the court. That last game was a 75-65 win over Notre Dame and the first time they covered a spread this season (were only 1-point favorites). Losing to Michigan State and Illinois - as the Blue Devils did - isn’t that big of a deal. We like Coach K to have another productive ACC season and a Boston College team that’s dropped six of its last seven games isn’t going to provide much of a challenge tonight. The Eagles only win since November came against Maine. They are giving up a ton of points, 81.1 per game to be exact. St. Johns, Syracuse, Minnesota and Florida all scored at least 85 against this team. Duke is better than all four of those teams and should score in that neighborhood. Making matters worse for BC is that they were pretty inept at the offensive end vs. Louisville over the weekend. They shot just 33.8% and missed 25 of 33 three point attempts. No path to be competitive here for BC. Play on DUKE AAA |
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01-06-21 | Pistons v. Bucks -12 | Top | 115-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks beat the Pistons by 10 points on Monday and should win by a much larger margin tonight. While it’s going to be tough for the Bucks to shoot the ball better than they did Monday, they can help themselves by defending better. Detroit shouldn’t score 115 again as they usually don’t do well in games that have a total of 220 points or more. They are just 19-36 ATS in such games. They are also only 11-24 ATS L35 division games. Milwaukee is 27-8 ATS its last 35 division games. Then you’ve got the head to head. The Bucks are 12-0 SU the L12 meetings, going 10-1-1 ATS. The Pistons have given up an average of 117.6 points/game this season and that’s obviously not going to cut it against the league’s top scoring team. The Bucks can name the score here. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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01-05-21 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -15.5 | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS TECH It’s been a while since Texas Tech (0-6 ATS L6) covered a game. You’d actually have to go back to December 9th to find the last time the #18 ranked Red Raiders were the winners at the betting window. But that’s what happens sometimes when you’re favored in every game. We happen to think this team is much better than its current ranking in the polls and view tonight as a “buy low” opportunity as they welcome Kansas State to Lubbock. Remember that K-State lost to Fort Hayes State, a non-Division I school, at home earlier this season. Texas Tech has six wins by 20 or more points, so don’t be worried about laying the “big” number here. Again, with that many blowout victories you wouldn’t think they’d be struggling to cover games. The Red Raiders are off a loss here, 82-77 to Oklahoma State on Saturday, a game that went to overtime. But this is a drop in class. Three of Kansas State’s five wins have come by four points or fewer, so they easily could be even worse off than 5-6 SU. When the Wildcats played Baylor, they lost by 31 at home. That’s the only ranked opponent they’ve faced so far. They were down by 17 at home to TCU on Saturday. The Wildcats turn the ball over too much and you can’t do that against one of the best defensive teams in the country like Texas Tech. Tonight won’t go well for the visitors. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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01-04-21 | Knicks v. Hawks -6 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Before the season started, we identified Atlanta as a possible “sleeper” team in the Eastern Conference. Sure enough, the Hawks got off to a 4-1 start and were “flying high.” But they came crashing down with a surprise home loss to Cleveland Saturday night and that should have them ready to rock when they host another bad team, the Knicks, Monday night. Prior to coming up short vs. the Cavs, the Hawks only loss was by four points at Brooklyn. Their only non-cover came in an eight-point win against the Pistons. They were 11-pt chalk vs. Detroit and that’s what we think the line should be here, so it’s a real bargain on the home side. The Knicks have pulled some shocking upsets already, the latest was them winning as a 10-point dog at Indiana on Saturday. But when they lose, they lose big. All three losses this season have come by double digits. Something to keep in mind with Atlanta is they had a 15-point lead against Cleveland before a sloppy second half led to them giving the game away. This is the Knicks’ 4th straight game on the road and we don’t see them having much left in the tank. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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01-04-21 | Stanford v. Oregon State +6.5 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON STATE Dangerous spot for Stanford to be laying points here. This is the second road game in three nights and they are off a 73-56 loss to Oregon. Oregon State has won three straight and their 5-3 WL record is a bit misleading as all three Beavers’ losses were by four points or fewer. They are eight points away from having a perfect 8-0 SU record, so we will gladly take the points Monday afternoon in Corvallis. OSU was a 73-64 winner on Saturday against Cal. Defensively, the Beavers have been stout, allowing more than 64 points in only two games thus far. Stanford has covered only three games all year and is 0-2 ATS when playing with one or zero days rest. Senior guard Daejon Davis did not play on Saturday and is listed as questionable for this one. Play on OREGON STATE AAA |
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01-03-21 | Houston v. SMU +2.5 | Top | 74-60 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SMU This was “supposed” to be a battle of unbeatens, but #5 Houston “ruined” that when they went out and got beat 65-64 by Tulsa last Tuesday. Now the Cougars are not only off a loss, but playing for third straight time on the road and it’s against 6-0 SMU, who is not ranked but obviously still undefeated. The Mustangs have enjoyed a strong home court edge here at Moody Coliseum, winning 29 of their last 39 games here. While having the home court edge in 2021 isn’t what it “used to be,” we still look for SMU to keep its unbeaten run going Sunday night. They are 5-1 ATS after beating Temple Wednesday and defeated Houston last year, 73-72, here at home. Houston has not shot well the last two games (below 36.0 FG%) and that’s a problem when facing a SMU squad that comes in averaging 84.2 points/game. Three straight road games is always tough, especially when the third is against a quality foe. Laying points here sounds bad, so we’ll take ‘em! Play on SMU AAA |
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01-03-21 | Cardinals +4 v. Rams | Top | 7-18 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA This is one of the more important games on the Week 17 slate. Whomever wins is in the playoffs. If the Cardinals lose, they are out. If the Rams lose, they would need the Bears to lose (at home vs. GB) to get in. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, they don’t have Jared Goff as he was forced to undergo surgery on his injured thumb. That means John Wolford will be making his 1st career NFL start. It’s a rough spot to debut in and complicating matters is the fact COVID has taken out several other Rams. This is a great chance for Arizona to end a seven-game losing skid to LA. The sense of urgency is greater on the Cardinals’ sideline and while they’ve REALLY struggled to cover games down the stretch, this is really a tailor-made spot with all the Rams absences. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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01-03-21 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -114 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CAROLINA We liked Carolina plus the points here even before it was announced New Orleans would be without RB Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a big loss for a Saints team trying to earn home field advantage in the NFC. He tied a NFL record with SIX touchdowns on Christmas Day! But even with Kamara it was rather unlikely the Saints were going to get the top spot in the conference. They need not just a win, but the Packers to lose and the Seahawks to win. The Panthers have nothing to play for (in terms of playoffs), but should relish the “spoiler” role. They just won at Washington last week and the Football Team was fighting for its playoff life. Obviously, there is a big difference between the Football Team and the Saints. But don’t be surprised if New Orleans “folds their tent” early here if they learn Green Bay is winning in Chicago. Carolina is 8-1 ATS its last nine games as an underdog and QB Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS as an underdog in his career. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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01-03-21 | Packers -5 v. Bears | Top | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GREEN BAY Green Bay can earn the #1 seed (and home field advantage) with a win over Chicago in Week 17. The Bears need a win (or Cardinals loss) to get in the playoffs. We look for Aaron Rodgers to continue his mastery over the “Monsters of the Midway” and lead his team to the top seed in the NFC. The Packers were our Game of the Month last week as they destroyed Tennessee 40-14 on Sunday Night Football. It was their fifth consecutive win and they are now 12-3. No clue how the Bears have worked their way back into playoff contention. This is a team that lost six in a row at one point. They’ve been favored just three times all season, one of those being last week against Jacksonville. When these NFC North rivals met the first time, it was all Pack in a 41-25 win that wasn’t even that close (another SNF game). The Bears’ offense has seemingly come alive after that loss with four straight games where they scored 30 or more points. But they faced a slew of bad defenses (Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville). Who do you trust more? Rodgers or Mitch Trubisky? Rodgers is 18-7 ATS all-time vs. the Bears. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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01-03-21 | Raiders -2 v. Broncos | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAS VEGAS This will be the first time the Raiders are favored in Denver since 1995. Nothing is on the line but pride in this Week 17 AFC West matchup as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Denver has known its fate for a while now, but Las Vegas was officially eliminated last week with a painful loss to Miami. It was their third straight setback, all of them at home, so maybe getting away from Sin City will be good for them. Unless something drastic changes here, the Broncos will go the entire season without being favored a single time. That right there should tell you what the oddsmakers think of Vic Fangio’s team. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in division games this year and have covered the last five times they’ve faced Denver. It was a 37-12 win in the first meeting of 2020. The Broncos have the worst turnover margin in the league and possibly the longest injury list. A win here would give Las Vegas a .500 season and allow them to get Over the projected season win total of 7.5. Derek Carr is still projected to start, but even Marcus Mariota is capable of beating the lowly Broncos. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS A&M The Orange Bowl pits 8-3 North Carolina against 8-1 Texas A&M. The 5th ranked Aggies were the 1st team “left out” of the College Football Playoff and we believe they will take their frustrations out on a Tar Heels team that may very well be “just happy to be here.” It’s been awhile since UNC was in a major bowl game like this. Don’t worry about laying the number as A&M is 7-1 - both straight up and against the spread - as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite the last three seasons. Over the same time period, North Carolina is 1-10 SU when an underdog in that same point range. The Tar Heels defense can be shaky as it allowed 44 or more points three times in the regular season. They did not face Clemson, but did face Notre Dame and in that game the offense was held to a season-low 17 points. Other than that game, the schedule wasn’t very tough. Texas A&M had to run the SEC gauntlet and their only loss was to Alabama. They are on a six-game win streak with all six wins coming by at least 11 points. The Aggies have a huge edge defensively in this matchup as they are allowing just 21.1 points/game and that number gets a lot lower when you factor out Alabama and Florida. Six times they held their opponents under 21 points. Lay it. Play on TEXAS A&M AAA |
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01-02-21 | North Dakota State v. Western Illinois +6.5 | Top | 68-50 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
Play on WESTERN ILLINOIS We’re digging deep into the Saturday card with a play from the Summit League. These are hardly two of the better performing teams from this conference, but what we have here is a not-so-good team laying points on the road. North Dakota State has played the likes of Kansas, Creighton and TCU pretty tough so far. But now they’re a favorite for just the third time this year and first time on the road. The Bison’s two victories have been by a total of eight points. So they are not a team you’d want to back in this situation. Western Illinois has yet to play a conference game (NDSU has played three). The Leathernecks have generally been competitive, except for when they faced Iowa (season opener) and Depaul (last game). While they may not have liked it, getting blown out by Iowa is fine. As for the loss to Depaul, it was their third straight road game and right before the Holidays. This will be just the second game in Macomb for the Leathernecks and we like them getting points against a team that’s shooting only 40.2% from the field thus far. Play on WESTERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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01-02-21 | Iowa -3 v. Rutgers | Top | 77-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is a very good basketball team. That should be obvious by their #10 ranking. You don’t get that high in the polls by being mediocre. But we think the Hawkeyes happen to be even BETTER than that #10 ranking and they’ll show it Saturday at Rutgers. Iowa comes in at 8-2 while averaging 94.3 points per contest. One of the losses was to #1 Gonzaga and the other was in overtime. Last Tuesday they took care of #19 Northwestern 87-72. Now it’s another ranked opponent, this one on the road. But is Rutgers really as good as its #14 ranking? We don’t think so. They did beat Illinois here in East Brunswick, NJ. After that was their only loss of the year, which was on the road (Ohio State). The Scarlet Knights bounced back by beating Purdue Tuesday. Iowa is the best team they will have faced. The Hawkeyes do not turn the ball over much (4th lowest rate in the country) and Rutgers doesn’t turn their opponents over much. Iowa is #1 in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 7-2 all-time vs. Rutgers. Play on IOWA AAA |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame +20 v. Alabama | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME The Rose Bowl is in Arlington, TX this year and Alabama is a monster favorite over Notre Dame in the first of the two CFP semifinals. While we do expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, look for the Fighting Irish to score enough to cover the spread. Bama just gave up 46 points (to Florida) in the SEC Championship Game. While Notre Dame got held to 10 points in the ACC Championship Game, they had scored at least 31 in six straight and eight of nine before that. This is a truly massive spread and while ND probably isn’t in the same league as Alabama, we find it hard to believe they should be this large of an underdog against ANYONE. Taking on Clemson at a neutral site, they were only 11-point dogs. Yes, they were blown out, but that’s led to a real overadjustment from the oddsmakers. The Irish are 6-3 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit dog (goes way back, to 2008). For all the talk of Nick Saban in big games, Bama is only 3-6 ATS its L9 CFP games and 0-3 ATS the last three. This is the third highest spread in bowl HISTORY (not just the CFP). We simply HAVE to take the points. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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12-31-20 | Nevada -6 v. New Mexico | Top | 68-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 8* on NEVADA Similar to the San Diego-San Francisco matchup, the favorite for this game has been far more “active” in the early part of the season. Nevada has played eight games compared to only five for New Mexico. The Wolf Pack could only manage a split of two home games vs. Air Force, losing the second one by two points despite being an 11.5-point favorite. They are back in the favorite role tonight, and for good reason as New Mexico just lost twice in a row at Boise State. Those losses were by 24 and 37 points. Two of the Lobos' three wins this year came against non-Division I opponents that go by the names of Our Lady of the Lake and Letorneau. Not exactly NCAA Tournament resume builders! Don’t care that this game is in Albuquerque as Nevada is a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times it has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. New Mexico is just 11-24 ATS vs. teams with winning records and has lost three straight times to Nevada - all by double digits. Play on NEVADA AAA |
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12-31-20 | Knicks v. Raptors -9 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto is 0-3, both straight up and against the spread, but here comes the Knicks to rectify that problem. Now the Knicks have won two straight including a shocking upset of Milwaukee. So the Raptors need to take this game seriously. Given their record, you have to think they will. They have beaten the Knicks eight consecutive times. New York is going to be really short-handed for this one due to multiple injuries. A near skeleton crew playing on the road on New Year’s Eve probably isn’t going to bring out the best effort from them. The 130 points they scored against Milwaukee was a fairly “head-scratching” performance while the other win was “only” against lowly Cleveland, who shot 36.4% from the field. The Knicks lost by double digits each of the first two games. We know the Raptors aren’t able to play in Toronto yet (home games are in Tampa, FL for now), but this is one they badly need as they seek to avoid their worst start to a season in a decade and a half. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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12-31-20 | Kings v. Rockets -5 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON A lot of drama in Houston (COVID, James Harden) has resulted in an 0-2 start, but the Rockets should finally blast off tonight against Sacramento. The Kings are beating the odds thus far with a 3-1 start that has seen them face both the Nuggets and Suns twice. They were underdogs in all four of those games, just as they are here. But three of those four games were at home. Two of the wins came by three points or less. Seems like the Kings are due for a “reality check” on New Year’s Eve as Houston has gone 6-1, both straight up and against the spread, vs. them the previous two seasons. John Wall is set to make his Rockets debut here as he and two other players return from quarantine. The others are Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. The Rockets were only able to travel with nine players for their two road games because of COVID protocols. This looks to be an obvious spot where they get things going in a positive direction. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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12-31-20 | San Diego v. San Francisco -12.5 | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO San Francisco has been far more “active” than San Diego heading into the WCC opener for both teams. The Dons have played 10 games thus far, though only one of those came here at home. They are 6-4 with two of the losses coming fairly recently, on the road against Pac 12 schools (Cal and Oregon). Their most recent game was a 68-65 victory over Grand Canyon University. San Diego is just 1-3 and the last time we saw them (12 days ago), they were being blown out (by 32 points) at UC Irvine. That doesn’t bode well for the Toreros today. They’ve lost two of their three road games by at least 27 points. USF should be quite thrilled to be playing at home on New Year’s Eve. In their only home game thus far, the Dons put up 107 points on Long Beach State. So far they’ve won three times by at least 25 points. So lay the double digit spread in this one. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State v. Tulsa -2.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 193 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA This year’s Armed Forces Bowl pits 3-7 Mississippi State against 6-2 Tulsa. In any other year, Miss St would NOT have gotten a bowl invite. So we’ll relish the opportunity to play against Mike Leach’s Bulldogs in this one. While they did end the regular season with a somewhat impressive 52-31 win against Missouri (only win over a bowl team), prior to that MSU had lost three in a row and seven of its last eight. The only win in those eight games came against Vanderbilt. Tulsa is a feisty 6-2 and ranked #24 in the country. They have an excellent defense that shut down the likes of UCF, SMU and Oklahoma State. Even in the AAC Championship Game where they lost 27-24 to undefeated Cincinnati, the Golden Hurricane defense did an excellent job. That game was decided on a field goal as time expired. Tulsa’s only other loss was at Oklahoma State and they led there in the second half. This is a really strong team, much better than MSU on both sides of the football. It is absolutely remarkable that we are able to get them laying so few points to a team as bad as Mississippi State. The only reason this line is so low is because MSU is an SEC team. But Tulsa isn’t facing an SEC All-Star team here, or even a good SEC team. Miss State’s offense is terrible, ranking outside the top 100 in most key categories. They were held to 14 points or less in five of their nine games. They cannot run the ball at all. They average only 36 yards/game rushing, which is LAST in the country. The weather isn’t expected to be nice in Fort Worth, TX on New Year’s Eve and that favors Tulsa. A truly incredible matchup for the Golden Hurricane, who can make a national statement to end 2020. Play on TULSA AAA |
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12-30-20 | Lakers -5 v. Spurs | Top | 121-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA LAKERS We’ve seen how the Lakers perform off a loss before and it was a 138-115 thrashing of Dallas on Christmas night. They are off a loss again tonight as they fell 115-107 to Portland on Monday. Their first road game of the year is tonight in San Antonio where they’ll face a Spurs team that is 3-0 ATS. This is the first of two straight games here in the Alamo as the teams play again on New Year’s Day. Though it was the second night of a back to back, it was a little surprising to see the Lakers falter down the stretch against Portland. It was the first time in more than a year that they lost a game in which they led going into the 4th quarter (59-0 previously). But they didn’t get much production off the bench (only 23 points) and thus couldn’t finish the job. However, we like them to finish here as the Spurs only scored 95 points against New Orleans on Sunday, their first loss of the 2020-21 season. We don’t expect much from San Antonio this year and they lost all three times they played the Lakers in 2019-2020. All three games were decided by at least seven points and two were at home. Play on LA LAKERS AAA |
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12-30-20 | La Salle v. Dayton -12 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DAYTON We don’t anticipate Dayton having any problems with A-10 rival LaSalle on Wednesday. The Flyers are double digit favorites here for a reason, namely a 33-5 SU home record the L3 seasons. Quietly, they’ve also gone 54-14 SU overall during that time frame. They are off to a 4-1 start this year, the only loss coming by two points. Every Dayton game has been decided by six points or less with four of them decided by a total of 11 points. But the two most recent wins both came against SEC teams. LaSalle is not a good team as they are 3-5 and really struggling to score when not at home. The Explorers come in averaging only 60.8 points/game when playing on the road or at a neutral site. That’s problematic considering Dayton only allows 62.7 points/game at home. The last two meetings between these two sides have seen the Flyers prevail by 26 and 31 points. LaSalle scored only 39 and 58 points. It’s gonna get ugly again tonight. Play on DAYTON AAA |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin -8.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN So Wisconsin had a really underwhelming regular season. The Badgers were supposed to waltz their way to the Big 10 Championship and face Ohio State. Instead, they lost three games. In each of those three losses, which came in a row, they were held to 7 points or less. That was downright shocking. So now the Badgers end up facing a 4-4 Wake Forest team in the Mayo Bowl. As they were for every regular season contest, Wisconsin is favored here. The underdog role suits Wake Forest well as they went 3-0 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But there is a massive gap between these two teams on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin allows 15.7 points/game. WF allows more than double that (31.6) and a frightening 40.8 points/game when they play outside of Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have played just one game since November 14th and it was a 24-point loss to Louisville. They’ve allowed 104 points their last two games. Wisconsin has won five of its last six bowl games, the only loss coming by a single point to Oregon in last year’s Rose Bowl. We still believe in this team and think they’ll roll here as the offense gets on track against a bad defensive team. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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12-29-20 | Bucks v. Heat +5.5 | Top | 144-97 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs where Miami “stunned” Milwaukee with a 4-1 series win. The Bucks are just 1-2 to start the year with road losses to the Celtics and Knicks. Their only win, Christmas Day vs. Golden State was at home. Losing to the Knicks is embarrassing enough but giving up 130 points was really bad. Considering that loss and the revenge angle, we are anticipating “everyone” to be on the Bucks here, but the spread is too high. Miami hasn’t played since Christmas when they easily handled the Pelicans. That 111-98 win was reminiscent of the team we saw go all the way to the NBA Finals back in October. Probably no Jimmy Butler tonight, but that’s okay as the Heat can still turn to a deep roster that’s led by Bam Adebayo’s team-high 21.0 PPG scoring average. The team is also 10-3 SU/9-3 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. The Bucks aren’t getting much offensive production beyond their top two scorers (Giannis, Middleton) and the defense looked very shaky in both defeats. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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12-29-20 | Florida State +1.5 v. Clemson | Top | 67-77 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FSU Clemson’s only loss this season came exactly two weeks ago when they visited Virginia Tech. So far that is the Tigers’ only road game and it’s their only ACC game as well. They bounced back from that defeat last Monday by beating Morehead State 66-51 and while they did lead by as many as 24 in the second half, they ended up not coming close to covering the 26-point spread. Tonight they face #18 Florida State, who also has just one loss on the year. Like Clemson, the Seminoles are off a win following a loss. They lost to UCF, 86-74 at home, before bouncing back against Gardner Webb last Monday. They also did not cover a large spread last time out. While this will be the Noles first true road test and they are just 6-17 ATS L23 visits to Death Valley, we like them getting points in this spot. Last season, they were favored to win here (lost by 1) and also beat the Tigers by 18 down in Tallahassee. FSU is on an 8-5 ATS run as underdogs with six outright victories. This is the first time they have gotten points in 2020. Save for the loss to UCF, FSU’s defense has been good in every game this season and they are the best team Clemson will have faced so far. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI For the first time this bowl season, we’ve got a matchup of ranked teams! #21 Oklahoma State takes on #18 Miami in this year’s Cheez-It Bowl, which goes down Tuesday evening in Orlando, FL. Though the programs can both claim to have had Jimmy Johnson as a head coach, they’ve met only one time and that was in 1991. This line is trending towards ‘pick ‘em’ territory after OSU opened as a three-point favorite. We agree with this move as Miami will be the more motivated side coming off the butt-kicking they took at the hands of North Carolina in the last game. The Hurricanes only other loss this year was to Clemson. Oklahoma State has a good defense, but it’s third down numbers probably won’t translate to the bowl game facing talented Miami QB D’Eriq King, who has accounted for more than 3000 total yards and 26 touchdowns. OSU’s best offensive player, RB Chuba Hubbard, has opted out of this game. So that’s a break for the Miami defense. Getting this game “up the road” in Orlando is another advantage. The most motivating factor of them all is that Miami will be looking to reverse some “ugly” recent bowl history (1-9 L10) including last year’s unforgivable 14-0 loss to Louisiana Tech. Now they have King and we expect them to play well. Oklahoma State had failed to cover five in a row before beating Baylor in their last game. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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12-28-20 | Rockets +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON This seems like a lot of points for Houston to be getting? With the James Harden saga and COVID cancelling their first game, the Rockets are seemingly being “written off.” But they did take Portland to overtime in their only game played so far (lost 128-126) and easily covered a spread similar to this one. Harden scored 44 points and didn’t seem the least bit bothered by the drama. Denver is 0-2 right now with home losses to Sacramento and the Clippers. The Sacramento game went to overtime, but they were straight out blitzed X-mas night by LA. The expectation here will be that Denver “can’t” lose a third straight game at home. But that line of thinking has led to an inflated number, which we will gladly grab. The Rockets are 8-3 ATS the L11 meetings with the Nuggets and 25-19 ATS their L44 as underdogs. They flat out seem “mis-priced” in the early going this year. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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12-28-20 | Bills -7 v. Patriots | Top | 38-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO The Bills are AFC East Champs for the 1st time since 1995. They will be either the #2 or #3 seed once the playoffs begin. The #2 seed gets to play the Wild Card with the worst record, so there still is something to play for here. Not to mention a season sweep of the Patriots, which the Bills haven’t done since 1999. New England has fallen hard in 2020 as Cam Newton simply could not fill the shoes of Tom Brady. Not many though he would, but 6-8 isn’t what you’d expect from the Patriots. Buffalo’s primetime woes are now a thing of the past as they’ve won three straight night games. Now it’s time to exorcise some more demons. Giving Bill Belichick his 1st losing season since his 1st year in Foxboro would be something. New England has scored just 15 points - total - the last two games and averages only 20.6 per game for the year. Buffalo put up 48 points last week in a laugher over Denver (we had the Bills) and is putting up 29.1 points/game. It’s now the Patriots that are just 1-4 ATS in primetime this year and they also haven’t covered a game (in four tries) when playing with extra rest. Buffalo has covered six in a row and QB Josh Allen is peaking at the right time. The Bills defense has allowed less than 20 points three of the past four weeks. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-27-20 | Suns -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 116-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX Phoenix will look to avenge last night’s 106-103 loss in Sacramento, which was their first ATS loss in 10 games going back to last season’s bubble. They’d also won all nine games straight up. Sacramento is 2-0 with those wins coming by two and three points. They opened with an overtime win against Denver, but just as easily could be 0-2 right now. We can’t really see 3-0 happening for the Kings. So we’ll lay a short number with the Suns in this immediate revenge spot. Huge edges in rebounding and free throw attempts were key for the Kings last night. It’s atypical they enjoy such large advantages in those areas. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers -3 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 129 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY A win Sunday night could give the Packers the coveted #1 overall seed in the NFC. Remember that only one team - per conference - receives a first round bye starting with this year’s playoffs. The possibility of getting that top seed should have Green Bay plenty motivated for this one. Now they’ll know if they can clinch by kickoff. If the Rams beat Seattle, then the opportunity is there. But even if that result doesn’t happen, a win would keep them in the pole position heading into Week 17 when they’d only need to beat the Bears at home. The Packers haven’t had much trouble winning, taking six of the last seven games and four straight. They haven’t committed a single turnover during the 4-game win streak. When you take out some garbage time scoring from Detroit and Chicago, Green Bay’s defensive numbers from the last seven games look really good. In those seven games, only the Colts have scored more than 25 points against them. It would be no more than 20, if you take out the garbage time scoring. The Packers are 19-4 SU their last 23 home games. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SEATTLE The Rams lost to the Jets last week. So it’s tough to imagine them winning in Seattle. One week later, we’re quite proud of last week’s call on the Jets. While we didn’t expect them to win straight up, we did highlight many of the Rams shortcomings, which all seemed to come to light in the most embarrassing loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks handled their business in a 20-15 win over Washington. The week before, they beat the Jets 40-3, which was here at home. Having already suffered their own embarrassing home defeat (three weeks ago vs. Giants), Seattle doesn’t dare let its guard down again. They are looking to avenge a 7-point loss in LA from last month. They didn’t have their top two running backs for that game. The defense is also now a whole heck of a lot better with Jamal Adams running wild. No opponent has scored more than 21 against them during the last five games. The last four have scored only 52 points total. A win here would give the Seahawks the NFC West title, something they dearly want. The Rams are just a .500 team this season (5-5) when you factor out four games vs. the NFC East. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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12-27-20 | Broncos v. Chargers -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA CHARGERS This game will determine who finishes in the basement of the AFC West. For much of the year, the Chargers have occupied that dubious spot. But after last week’s wild 30-27 win in Vegas, Los Angeles has moved into a tie with Denver. Both are 5-9 coming into this game. Five wins is actually an achievement for Denver as they have yet to be favored in a single game this season. Anyone who saw them last Saturday vs. Buffalo knows this is not a good team. The 48-19 loss tells us the effort just isn’t there any longer. You may be thinking that the Chargers have no reason to try either, but they’ve got revenge for an unforgivable loss earlier in the season. In Denver, they led by 21 points only to end up losing 31-30. Anthony Lynn is very much coaching for his job right now. These teams may have the same record. But the Broncos have been outscored by 119 points while the Chargers have “only” been outscored by 62 points. The Chargers are the better team and we like them to win. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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12-27-20 | Evansville v. Southern Illinois -7.5 | Top | 57-63 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SIU Southern Illinois is one of three Missouri Valley teams still without a loss. The Salukis are 6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS and now begin conference play with a home game against Evansville. We’re no strangers to the Purple Aces as on Monday we won our 10* Total of the Week in their game at Belmont, which was a 72-63 loss for them. That dropped them to 2-4 on the year and both wins were by just three points at home. SIU enters in off its most impressive win to date, a 76-73 upset of Butler as a 9.5-point road underdog. We look for them to handle their business today in Carbondale where three of their four victories this season have been by double digits. SIU has won all four meetings against Evansville the past two seasons with the last one coming by 17 point (that was here at home). Evansville is 5-25 SU its last 30 road games. Play on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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12-27-20 | Giants v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE Since Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup, the Ravens are averaging more than 40 points/game. The Giants have scored a grand total of 30 points over that same time frame. So expect this rematch of Super Bowl 35 to quickly deteriorate into a blowout. That the Giants are still vying to be the winner of the horrible NFC East carries little water for us. Baltimore is also trying to lock down a playoff spot and likely needs to win out to get it. So expect them to take no mercy in this home game. They are 34-0 SU all-time as a double digit favorite. So it’s just a matter of covering the spread. Considering the offensive numbers of the Giants (31st overall in yardage), who may be starting Colt McCoy, winning ATS should not be difficult. (By the way, we don’t consider Daniel Jones much of an upgrade from McCoy, so the play still stands if Jones does end up starting). Jackson has accounted for more touchdowns in the past three games than Giants’ QBs have accounted for all season! The Ravens are 23-8 SU in December home games under Harbaugh and 11-1 SU this month in games started by Jackson. This should be a two touchdown spread. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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12-26-20 | Liberty v. Coastal Carolina -7 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA We were happy to jump on the Coastal Carolina bandwagon early this year. All the Chanticleers have done is go 11-0 straight up and 8-2-1 against the spread. They’ll try and finish off a perfect season Saturday as they take on fellow “Cinderella story” Liberty, who is 8-1 SU and ATS, in the Cure Bowl in Orlando. With the two teams a combined 16-3-1 ATS, there’s a lot to like here. But no one disputes Coastal Carolina is the better team. These teams were actually supposed to play in Conway, SC back on December 5th, but COVID prevented that and instead gave us one of the best games of the year, Coastal Carolina’s 22-17 win over BYU. Liberty hasn’t played since November 27th. Coastal Carolina is 5-0 ATS against teams with winning records this year. Liberty did beat Virginia Tech, but the Hokies weren’t that good and the rest of the Flames’ schedule was WEAK. The only bowl team they defeated was Western Kentucky, who was 2-6 at one point. Coastal Carolina is stronger on both sides of the ball. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA When Arizona “upset” San Francisco 24-20 in Week 1 (were 7 point underdogs!), it really set the respective paths these teams have taken in 2020. The Cardinals are one of the NFL’s most improved teams, winning 8 games already after a 5-11 campaign in 2019. The 49ers were in the Super Bowl last year, but won’t be back there this February as they’ve fallen to 5-9 SU coming into this Saturday contest. Arizona has had San Francisco’s numbers the last several seasons, winning 9 of the last 11 matchups and covering the spread in the past six. We expect those trends to continue Saturday. CJ Beathard is now the starting QB for the Niners, their third different starting QB of 2020. It’s been that kind of season for them. The Niners haven’t done a good job of protecting their other two QBs and Beathard figures to be under siege by an Arizona defense that has averaged seven sacks each of its last two games. The Cardinals have scored 59 points the last two games - both wins - as they make a playoff push. The 49ers have lost three in a row and six of seven. They are toast with a third string QB. Play on ARIZONA AAA |