Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-23-20 | Celtics v. Heat +3 | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIA Game 3 of this series marked the first loss in regulation for Miami since the playoffs began. While they’ve had a “nasty habit” of falling behind in games, the Heat still lead this Eastern Conference Finals 2 games to 1 over Boston. We see no way that the Heat don’t improve upon their shooting from the last game as they sank just 12 of 44 three-point attempts and finished with a 38.8 overall FG%. Despite all that, they were still within five points in the final minute. Obviously, having lost just two games since the playoffs started, the Heat have yet to drop two in a row. The last time they suffered back to back losses was right before the playoffs began, in the final two seeding games, neither of which they really put forth much effort in. The extra rest the teams got between Games 3 and 4 is interesting. Miami is 12-3 ATS the L3 seasons when playing with three or more days rest. Boston hasn’t won two straight since opening the last round 2-0 vs. Toronto. We don’t see Miami falling behind by double digits again, so taking the points is the way to go tonight in an obvious bounce back spot. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-23-20 | Lightning v. Stars +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -193 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 6* on DAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) An early 3-0 hole was just too deep for the Stars to climb out of in Game 2. But despite falling behind by three goals in the first period, they did still battle back to make it a one-goal game in the end. That means anyone that had them on the puck line would have cashed. We had the Lightning in Game 2, so we won too. For Game 3, we’re taking Dallas +1.5 (puck line) as this team has proven itself to be remarkably resilient throughout the playoffs. For Game 2, we talked about how the Lightning hadn’t dropped two straight games since coming into the bubble. Dallas has done so just two times and the first instance was the first two games after the restart. Since then, they are 14-7 in all games and six of their last eight games have been decided by one goal. One of the two non-one goal games was their Game 1 victory over the Lightning, which was 4-1. It’s a fairly steep price to lay to get the +1.5 with Dallas here, but definitely worth it as they’ve gone 2-0 when the series is tied this postseason. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks -4 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 147 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEA Seattle was one of the more impressive teams in Week 1. They beat Atlanta 38-25 and while the defense gave up plenty of yards, that hardly mattered with Russell Wilson playing as well as he did. Wilson threw 4 TD passes and completed 31 of his 35 attempts. The Seahawks won 11 games last year and brought back most of the key pieces. There’s no reason to believe they won’t have another successful season. New England is also accustomed to successful seasons, having had 20 years worth under Bill Belichick. Only now Tom Brady isn’t the QB. Cam Newton is. Newton had a solid start to his Patriots career, giving the offense a rushing dynamic it never had previously, but that was against Miami. Now they face a much stronger opponent and the Seahawks coaching staff still resents the Super Bowl loss from a few years back. This will snap the Patriots’ streak of 64 consecutive regular season games being favored. That makes a lot of sense given Seattle’s continuity plus it is very hard to win here at night. New England’s defense is set to take a hit this year. They lived off turnovers in 2019. While they forced three Miami TO’s last week, Seattle didn’t turn it over once in its opening game. The Patriots have failed to cover five straight times off a win. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-20-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Given how their last two series have gone, maybe the Nuggets have the Lakers “right where they want them.” No strangers to trailing in these playoffs, Denver got blown out in Game 1 of the WCF, losing 126-114. Of course, they were blown out even worse by the Clippers in Game 1 of the last round (120-97) and still came back to win that series in seven games. They are the first team in league history to win two series in the same postseason in which they trailed 3-1. Not only did Denver bounce back from a Game 1 blowout to win the Clippers series, they took Game 2 outright, 110-101. We’ll definitely grab the points here as the Nuggets are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in the series this postseason. Since falling behind Utah 3 games to 1 in the first round, they’ve covered six straight in the role. The Lakers shot very well from 3-point land in Game 1 (42.3%), which is much higher than their season average. They can’t count on that happening again. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-20-20 | 49ers -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF Yes, the 49ers have some injury concerns heading into Week 2. But we don’t think they’ll have much difficulty beating the hapless Jets on Sunday. You’ve got two teams that lost last week here. San Francisco’s loss was a surprise as they were 7-point favorites against Arizona. It really wasn’t a surprise to see the Jets go down in Buffalo though. Look past the 27-17 final in that one as the Jets were down 21-0 early in the second quarter and 27-10 before a late 86-yard drive was capped by a meaningless touchdown. Prior to that drive, the Jets had been outgained 404-168. QB Sam Darnold didn’t look very good at all and he lost RB Le’Veon Bell to injury. Coming off a loss, expect last year’s NFC Champs to take advantage. In the last 10 years, playoff teams that lost their season opener have bounced back to go 18-9 ATS in Week 2. The 49ers are 13-7 ATS L20 as road favorites. Furthermore, the old notion of West Coast teams struggling in 1 PM ET kicks appears to be a thing of the past. West Coast teams have won 13 of their last 16 such games while going 11-4-1 ATS. The Jets may be the worst team in the AFC. Lay the points. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY GIANTS The Giants lost on Monday Night Football, but actually played the Steelers pretty tough. Had it not been for a 19-play drive ending in a Daniel Jones interception early in the third quarter, the G-men would have likely covered the spread. As for Chicago, well, they pulled a rabbit out of the hat with a 27-23 comeback in Detroit. After looking terrible for three quarters, QB Mitchell Trubisky came alive with three 4th quarter TD passes. If you’re wondering how such a transformation could take place, look no further than the fact the Lions were down their three top cornerbacks. The Bears defense, usually reliable, gave up 426 yards. Really, it was a game that the Bears had no business winning. Adrian Peterson averaged 6.6 yards per carry against them, which is shocking, so look for Giants RB Saquon Barkley to bounce back from his poor effort against the Steelers. Chicago laying so many points is definitely an “eye-opener” as they are just 1-6 ATS the last 7 times as a favorite including 0-3 their L3. The Giants are 10-3 ATS as a road underdog the L3 seasons. Play on NY GIANTS AAA |
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09-20-20 | Lions v. Packers -6 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GREEN BAY Aaron Rodgers has to be licking his chops here. The Lions are down three defensive starters including both cornerbacks. It was those injuries at CB that allowed for Chicago to stun them last week with a trio of fourth quarter touchdowns. Injuries aren’t limited to the defense either. The Lions will be without WR Kenny Golladay and LG Joe Dahl as well. This is a team that just blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, has lost 10 straight going back to last season and has multiple key injuries on both sides of the ball. Now they face one of the best QBs in the league, on the road. The Packers put up 43 points and 500+ yards at Minnesota last week. Since the beginning of last season, Detroit is 1-10 ATS off a loss. They are 0-5 ATS the last four games, four of which they were underdogs in. Somehow the Lions have covered six straight times against the Pack, but that streak comes to an end Sunday as Matt Patricia’s team is in no position to compete right now. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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09-19-20 | Central Florida -7 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 73 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCF UCF has won a total of 35 games the previous three seasons and lost only four. The Golden Knights enter 2020 ranked #14 and are probably the best “Group of Five” team in the country. They open with Georgia Tech, who upset Florida State last week. Picked to finish last in the ACC, the Yellow Jackets were 13-point underdogs in Tallahassee. So it was a big surprise to start their season. It was a weird game with a 1 hr 45 min weather delay, plus the Seminoles turned the ball over three times. UCF, a more veteran team that has put up 30+ points in every game but one the L3 years, will not be as giving. The Knights are also eager to earn their first ever win in Atlanta. The program is 0-3 all-time vs. Ga Tech, but the last meeting was in 2000. The UCF program is a lot different (better!) now and ready to make a statement vs. a P5 foe. The Yellow Jackets are just 1-8 ATS their L9 home games and 0-5 ATS off their L5 straight up victories. Play on UCF AAA |
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09-19-20 | Navy +7 v. Tulane | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NAVY Navy had an absolutely disastrous showing in their season opener. They lost 55-3 to BYU! It was the worst loss in 13 years under Ken Niumatalolo and the head coach took all the blame. "Boy, that game was 1000 percent my fault," Niumatalolo said. "Obviously, we weren't prepared. One team was playing football. There's nobody to blame but myself. I erred on the side of trying to keep our guys safe (from COVID). I'd say it's the worst Navy football game we ever played." With two weeks to prepare, expect a MUCH better effort from the Midshipmen against Tulane. Against BYU, Navy ran for only 149 yards -- the 2nd lowest total ever for Niumatalolo in Annapolis and 211.5 yards below last year’s nation-leading average. Tulane played last week and only won by three (27-24) at South Alabama after initially trailing 24-6 in the third quarter. Now they turn around to face a complicated offense that’s going to produce a lot more than it did in the opener. The Green Wave were outgained last week in Mobile. They are breaking in a new QB and this is a lot of points to lay for a team whose only win over Navy in the L5 years came by a single points. The Midshipmen are 10-1-1 ATS following a loss by 20 or more points. Play on NAVY AAA |
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09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCY For the 16th consecutive season, Cleveland is winless entering Week 2. Now there’s no shame in losing Baltimore as the Browns did last week. But opening your season with a 38-6 loss is never good. QB Mayfield is on his third head coach in as many seasons and didn’t look any better, completing just 21 of 39 passes for 189 yards. He threw an INT on the very first drive. The offseason being what it was, teams with new head coaches and lots of personnel turnover are at a disadvantage. Cleveland fits that bill. Now after facing perhaps the best team in the league last week, the Browns now get to face the team that had the worst record in the league last year. But Cincinnati was at least competitive in its Week 1 loss to the Chargers. In fact, they had a chance to win at the end. Joe Burrow, the league’s top draft choice, threw two costly interceptions for the Bengals. Yet they still led most of the game. Cincy beat Cleveland in Week 17 last year, with a different QB obviously. With Burrow and a healthy AJ Green, the Bengals are going to be a much tougher “out” in 2020. They are 8-3 ATS L11 times as a road underdog. Cleveland is untrustworthy in the role of favorite. They lost outright five times as chalk last year including to the Bengals. Take the points Thursday night. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-89 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DENVER Denver has consistently been underpriced in this series, so why should we stop now? We had the Nuggets in their upsets in Games 2 & 6 as well as their ATS win in Game 3. This is the consecutive series where they’ve rallied from a 3-1 deficit. We all remember what happened against Utah in Game 7. They are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in a series this postseason. Each of the last two games have seen them stage shocking comebacks from double digit deficits. While one could take this as a sign of the Clippers’ superiority and “falling asleep at the wheel,” we see it as “blown opportunities.” Los Angeles has just one double digit win in the series; it came in Game 1 when they had an edge in rest over the Nuggets. Since rest time has been equal, the Nuggets are 4-1 ATS. They outscored the Clippers 64-35 in the second half of Game 6. A troubling sign for LA is that they’ve shot better than 42% from the floor just once in the past five games. There is a lot of pressure on the Clippers in this Game 7. Denver is playing with “house money.” Even if they can’t make history and be the first team to win consecutive series in which they were down 3 games to 1, the Nuggets will keep this one close. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-15-20 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the ISLANDERS +1.5 The Islanders are just trying to stay alive here, so we’ll take them +1.5 on the puck line. Obviously, this Eastern Conference Final did not get off to a good start for the Isles. They lost Game 1 by a score of 8-2. But then they only lost by a goal in Game 2 (2-1) and won Game 3, 5-3. But Game 4 was another disappointment as they lost 4-1. For 15 whole seconds NY did have the lead, but Tampa Bay quickly tied it and then took the lead for good 12 seconds later. So the game really changed in less than 30 seconds. What you have to remember is that the Islanders had been #1 in the playoffs in goals allowed (1.94 per game) coming into this series. Tampa Bay has proven rather difficult to slow down, but we’re counting on the Islanders busting out their old defensive “tricks” here in Game 5. They’ve only faced elimination one time this postseason and it was Game 7 against the Flyers, whom they shutout and held to just 16 shots. Lightning star Brayden Point is questionable here after taking a shot against the boards in the last game. He missed the second half of the third period. Islanders are 5-2 after scoring 2 goals or less the previous game. Play on ISLANDERS +1.5 AAA |
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09-15-20 | Heat +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 117-114 | Win | 100 | 33 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI After knocking off the top two seeds in the East, Miami and Boston meet in the Conference Finals. Miami ousted top seeded Milwaukee in five games. Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo hampered, that was still a really impressive effort from the Heat, who are now 8-1 SU and ATS this postseason. Boston needed seven games to eliminate Toronto, but was pretty clearly the better team in that series. Still, the extra games played is definitely a disadvantage for a thin lineup that’s still without Gordon Hayward. Bam Adebayo is the name to watch for the Heat as he led the way with 21 points and 12 rebounds in a 112-106 win when these teams faced off on August 4th. Boston defended the interior well against Toronto, particularly Daniel Theiss, but they clearly had issues against Adebayo last month. The Celtics shot just 43.5% in that game and were 10 of 33 from three-point range. Miami’s 3-point shooting has been a major weapon so far in the playoffs as they are at 38%, which is the highest percentage among the four likely conference finalists. Boston is just 13th in three-point shooting among the 16 playoff teams. Remember that the Heat have not been beaten in regulation since the playoffs began. Boston did not top 103 points in regulation in five of its last six games vs. Toronto. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys -3 v. Rams | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -101 | 125 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS (MONEY LINE) - only needs to win straight up For a team that finished 8-8, the Cowboys were pretty impressive last season. They had the league’s top ranked offense and +113 point differential. That they couldn’t even make the playoffs was an indictment on their coaching and ability to win close games. The coaching issue was rectified by replacing Jason Garrett with Mike McCarthy. A team’s record in close games can vary wildly. Just look at Dallas each of the last two years. In 2018, they were 10-4 SU in games decided by eight points or less. Last year, that record fell to 1-6! The core of that top-ranked offense is not only back, but additional pieces were added. QB Prescott should have a big season. As for the Rams, they are 1-8-1 ATS L10 as a home dog. The myth of the home dog in primetime has largely been debunked anyway. The Rams fell to 9-7 in 2019, a decline of four wins from the previous year. Despite having a better record than Dallas, their point differential was only +30. Unlike the Cowboys, the Rams roster looks a lot weaker this year and another decline in wins is likely. Look for Dallas to win going away. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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09-13-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +8.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver has already come back from one 3-1 series deficit (1st round vs. Utah). Can they do it again? Not sure (honestly seems doubtful), but a big difference between this and the Jazz series is that Denver is getting a lot of points on a game by game basis. Taking them here in Game 6, we don’t need a SU win to cash a winning ticket. Earlier in this series, the Nuggets did cover the spread without winning (Game 3). Game 5 saw them come back from a double digit deficit to stun the Clippers 111-105. We don’t see the Nuggets falling behind like that again. The Clippers have shot pretty poorly in three of the five games so far. When trailing in a playoff series, Denver is 8-1 ATS including 5-1 this year. Over the course of the five games, LA is only outscoring Denver by 5 PPG. Jokic, Murray and Porter all had nice performances in Game 5, which is worrisome for the Clippers. So was the play of their bench. Take the points here. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-13-20 | Eagles -6 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHI Washington is a team without a nickname and also without much direction. The front office, as always, is a mess. Ron Rivera has been chosen to lead this sinking ship and it's probably going to take a while until “Riverboat Ron '' gets this one floating again. Second year QB Dwayne Haskins did not have a particularly good rookie season. The Football Team won just three games in 2019, none of them against the division. In fact, they are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS the past six meetings with the Eagles. The Washington defense allowed points on more than 60% of the possessions it faced last year. There will be no home field edge here as no fans will be present. As we heard in the Thursday night game, even a reduced capacity can be noisy. It’s not just Philly that Washington struggles against. They have lost their last 10 NFC East games, covering the number just one time. No clue why this number has been bet down (as of Saturday). The Eagles own Washington and that figures to be the case again here. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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09-12-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston is playing for its season Saturday night. They trail the Lakers 3-1 and were thoroughly outplayed in Game 4, losing 110-100. Really, it wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Rockets trailed by as many as 23 in the fourth quarter. In many ways, it was the polar opposite of both Games 2 and 3 when they played the Lakers tough, only to come up just shy on the scoreboard. While the Rockets faced a large early deficit in Game 2, they came back and took the lead going into the fourth quarter. Game 3 saw them have the lead at halftime. Both those games saw the Lakers shoot the lights out. In Game 4, it was a massive edge in the paint and on second-chance points for LA. On the bright side for Houston, Russell Westbrook finally “woke up” with a 25-point effort Thursday. Faced with the prospect of “win or go home,” we figure we’ll be getting the Rockets’ best effort here, which certainly wasn’t the case in any of the last three games. It may not completely resemble Game 1 (which they won 112-97), but they’ll at least stay within the number as James Harden will certainly shoot better than 2 for 11 in this game. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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09-12-20 | Duke v. Notre Dame -19.5 | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -109 | 67 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season and comes in ranked #10 in the country. The only ACC team ranked higher is #1 Clemson. The Fighting Irish’s season begins at home in South Bend vs. Duke. This first “conference” challenge should be an easy one for Brian Kelly’s team, who won 11 games last season. Duke was just 5-7 in 2019. Though this is the first time (and probably last?) the schools will meet as “conference opponents,” they are familiar with one another. Last year, the Irish went into Durham and killed the Blue Devils 38-7 as seven-point favorites as QB Book threw four touchdown passes. Book, who finished with a 38-6 TD-INT ratio, is back to lead the Irish offense again this season. About 16,000 fans will be present Saturday afternoon in South Bend, so there is still a home field edge for a ND team that is 13-0 on this field the L2 years. Duke’s new starting QB is Chase Brice, a grad transfer from Clemson that hasn’t gotten much practice time with his new team due to the unusual summer. Center Jack Wohlabaugh just tore a knee ligament on Sept 1, complicating matters even further. Don’t hesitate to lay this number as the Fighting Irish should win big. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse +23 v. North Carolina | Top | 6-31 | Loss | -104 | 65 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SYRACUSE North Carolina went 7-6 straight up last season, a vast improvement on their 2-9 SU record the year before. The improvement was due to a combination of better luck and the return of Mack Brown as head coach. Syracuse, meanwhile, finished second to last in the Atlantic Division last year with a 5-7 overall record (2-6 in ACC). The Orange had won 10 games in 2018, so it was very much the reverse trend of what we saw in Chapel Hill. The ACC is using a “division-less” format for the 2020 season and adds Notre Dame to the mix. UNC is the third highest ranked team, behind only Clemson and the Irish. Though not much is expected from Dino Babers’ crew, don’t be surprised if they give UNC a run for its money in this season opener. Two years ago, the Orange won 40-38 in a double overtime game at the Carrier Dome. There is some question over who will be carrying the ball for Syracuse as the top two running backs on the depth chart both reportedly have opted out. But North Carolina had to deal with a five-day break in practice a couple weeks ago due to COVID-19. Syracuse has covered 11 of the last 16 times it has been a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Iowa State -11 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 44 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on IOWA STATE Iowa State has delivered three straight winning seasons for Matt Campbelll. This is not exactly a program accustomed to that kind of “success.” The previous four years, including Campbell’s first on the job, all saw the Cyclones win three or fewer games. But now they’ve firmly established themselves as part of the Big XII’s upper tier. They open the season with Louisiana Lafayette, who won 11 games in 2019. Of course, playing in the Sun Belt is a lot different than the Big XII. The Ragin Cajuns probably aren’t going to end up with that kind of record in 2020, although they are the most experienced team in their league and a threat to repeat as Western Division Champs. But beating Iowa State seems out of the question as the Cyclones have even better offensive talent with the returning QB Purdy (3,982 yds in ‘19) and RB Hall (averaged 100+ YPG L8 wks). They enter the year ranked #23, but we feel they are even better than that. There will be 25,000 fans present in Ames Saturday, giving ISU some semblance of “home field advantage.” We think the spread for this game “speaks volumes” as oddsmakers are saying a Louisiana team no one is taking lightly will still get beaten by double digits. We agree. Play on IOWA STATE AAA |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY This is a rematch from the Divisional Round of the playoffs. That game started great for the Texans. They were up 24-0 early in the second quarter. But from that point forward, the Chiefs outscored them 51-7 and went on to win the franchise’s 2nd Super Bowl. As the defending Super Bowl Champion, the Chiefs open the season at home on Thursday night. Save for last year, this has been the practice going back to 2004. The SB Champ has lost only two of the 15 times it has played on Opening Night. One of the losses was a weak Giants team (game was actually played on Weds due to Democratic National Convention). The other was three years ago when the Patriots lost … to the Chiefs. Not even spotting the Texans 24 points could prevent the Chiefs from winning by double digits in January. Houston figures to be weaker in 2020 as they lost Pro Bowl wideout DeShaun Watson, not to mention they were an extremely lucky 10-win team a year ago. They led at halftime in only six of their games and just two of their wins were by more than eight points. They went 5-1 SU in games decided by a field goal or less. Kansas City has covered its last eight games and should have its way with a weaker version of a team they beat by 17 points in the playoffs. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-10-20 | Golden Knights v. Stars +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on DALLAS +1.5 Dallas posted a shutout in Game 1 (1-0) and then Vegas returned the favor in Game 2, winning 3-0. It’s pretty clear that the level of scoring we’ve seen from both sides in the bubble appears ready to subside. While the Stars have scored just once in the two games, the Golden Knights have been blanked in five of the six periods as well. They didn’t score until the 2nd period of Game 2. While Vegas has posted two shutouts in the last four games, they’ve also been shutout themselves in the other two. Both teams have actually lost three of five. We give Dallas just as much of a shot at winning Game 3 as Vegas. While they’d be a solid bet here on the moneyline, the puck line is the better route in what likely promises to be a low-scoring game. Play DALLAS +1.5 AAA |
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09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL -13.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 53 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI UAB and Miami are set to hook it up Thursday night in Coral Gables. This game was originally set for next Thursday, but was bumped up a week due to COVID-19 wreaking havoc on all the schedules. UAB was a 9-win team a year ago and made the C-USA Championship Game. But consider for a moment the fact the Blazers beat only ONE FBS team with a winning record. Now had they faced Miami, that number wouldn’t have changed as the Hurricanes are off a tremendously disappointing 6-7 season under Manny Diaz that ended with an embarrassing 14-0 shutout by La Tech in the Independence Bowl. This year, “The U” promises to be a whole lot better though. D’Eriq King has transferred in to play quarterback. Two years ago, when he was with Houston, King led the entire FBS with 50 touchdown passes. The defense is going to be outstanding. UAB already played a game, but it was an unimpressive 45-35 win over Central Arkansas where they turned the ball over three times. If they gave up that many points to a FCS opponent, imagine how much they’ll give up here. UAB has covered just 1 of the previous 5 times it has been a road underdog. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON A second half surge propelled the Lakers to a 112-102 win and cover in Game 3. Now they’ll look to go up 3-1 in the best of seven series against the Rockets. Obviously, Houston is in a virtual must win. We’ll take the points with them as they’ve been very close each of the last two games. Game 2 saw them erase all of an early double digit deficit to go up heading into the 4th quarter. This despite the Lakers shooting better 56% from the field, for the entire game! Game 3 saw the Rockets take the lead into halftime. But again, hot shooting from the Lakers (55.1 FG%) was too much to overcome. The fact that Los Angeles has shot better than 55% the L2 games, yet trailed and was tied going into the 4th quarter is not a good sign, in our opinion. Inevitably, their shooting will cool off. Meanwhile, the Rockets are due to heat up. This is the first time they’ve trailed in a series this postseason. The Lakers are only 5-10-1 ATS in the bubble and this is the first time they’ve covered two in a row. They are 3-7 ATS off their last 10 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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09-09-20 | Raptors +3 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO It’s a cliche assessment of Game 5, but Toronto really was badly outplayed at both ends of the floor. The game was never really in doubt as the Celtics raced out to a 25-11 lead after one quarter and a 62-37 lead by halftime. They held the Raptors to 38.8% shooting. But as we see so often in the NBA Playoffs, teams tend to bounce back from a poor effort. Now facing elimination, the Raptors have no other option but to bounce back. They really do need to get it going offensively as they’re averaging just 97.2 PPG for the series. Throughout the course of the series, the odds have shifted rather significantly as Toronto closed as a 2-point favorite for Game 1, but is now a 3-point dog for Game 6. While the pointspread is still unlikely to come into play, we do think there’s value in taking the Raptors as an underdog. They are 6-1-1 ATS their L8 playoff games getting points. The possibility of not having Serge Ibaka hurts, however that’s something they can overcome. Coach Nurse said "I know it sounds crazy .. but I thought our offense was awesome for like the first eight minutes," This despite the team going 2 for 15. Nurse added. "I don't think those shots could have been more open." Look for the Raptors to make those open shots Wednesday. They’ve got no other option. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-08-20 | Rays v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH +1.5 Stuck in last place, the Nationals are finding it hard to defend their World Series Championship. But they did beat the Rays yesterday 6-1. Getting the Nats +1.5 at this price, at home no less, is definitely something we would not have foreseen just a couple weeks ago. We’ll take advantage of it as they still can be a dangerous club as they proved last night. A lot of that was due to Max Scherzer, but you’ve got to think there’s “more where that came from.” Tuesday’s starter Anibal Sanchez has struggled in his last two starts, however, the Rays have not scored more than five runs in 9 of their last 10 games. That leaves the door open with the run line as Washington has scored five or more runs in 6 of its last 10 contests. Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough missed his last start due to injury, thus he’s a bit of a question mark coming into today’s game. The Rays’ bullpen does not have good numbers on the road. Play WASHINGTON +1.5. AAA |
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09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +9 | Top | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver played a masterful Game 2, jumping out to a 44-25 advantage by the end of the first quarter, then holding on for the 110-101 upset as 8.5-point underdogs. After the Lakers successfully bounced back from a loss last night, most will anticipate the Clippers doing the same thing tonight. But we feel this line is just too high for an LA team that is just too inconsistent. Plus, the Nuggets have won four of their last five games anyway. They’ve also covered four of the last five times they’ve been an underdog. They are 12-1 ATS their L13 Monday games. Kawhi Leonard had a bad Game 2 and while his numbers should be better tonight, Denver seems to have developed a defensive strategy for him. Paul George can’t be consistently relied on as a second scoring option. We think its Denver that’s likely to have a better offensive performance tonight. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-05-20 | Nuggets +9 v. Clippers | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER The Nuggets look to rebound from a poor Game 1 effort where they were at the disadvantage of only having one day between series while the Clippers had three. Still, it wasn’t just a matter of rest in the 120-97 defeat. Denver shot the ball horribly, especially from “downtown” as they were 9 of 36 on all three-point attempts. Overall, they shot 42.2% while the Clippers were at 57.1%. We won’t claim that the Nuggets are a great defensive team, but they’ll definitely allow a lower shooting percentage Saturday in Game 2. Denver has cashed the L6 times they have been down in a playoff series including a 3-0 ATS this year. Note that the Clippers failed to cover off their first two wins in the first round series with Dallas, losing outright both times. This is a lot of points for the Nuggets to be getting and while it may not have been nearly enough in Game 1, improved shooting coupled with some obvious regression from the Clippers should lead to at least a cover this time. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis -18 | Top | 24-37 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS Memphis is a big favorite Saturday and justifiably so as they are coming off a 12-2 season last year and have won seven straight season openers. Arkansas State went 8-5 SU in 2019 and has now won at least 7 games in each of Blake Anderson’s six seasons here. But the Red Wolves are badly outclassed in this one. Their defense gave up 34.2 points/game and 6.1 yards/play last year and has just three starters back. Memphis is likely to be the best offense they see all season. Though the head coach left, the schemes and key contributors on the field largely remain the same for the Tigers. QB White leads an offense that has averaged over 40 points/game each of the previous three seasons. Memphis was 7-0 at the Liberty Bowl last season, winning most of those games by double digits. They’ve covered six of the last eight times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY (Money Line) Both Middle Tennessee and Army are expected to be improved in 2020. For Middle Tennessee, the bounce back seems logical. Two years ago they were 7-1 in Conference USA and came up just 2 points shy of the Title Game. Losing QB Stockstill last season (graduation) had a real impact as they fell all the way down to 4-8 overall, ending a 7-year bowl run. It’s a similar deal for Army, who went 11-2 SU two years ago only to drop to 5-8 SU last season. These teams combined to go 1-7 straight up in one score games in 2019. Only one can win here though and we think that will be Army. This game was not originally on the schedule and preparing for the triple option is tough even when you know that it's coming. Middle Tennessee’s defense was bad last year as they were bottom 20 in the country in yards allowed. They have just three returning starters. On offense, the Blue Raiders are missing their top two running backs, both of whom opted out. Army is 5-1-1 ATS in September the last two seasons. MTSU is 2-5 ATS. Play on ARMY (money line) AAA |
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09-04-20 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 100-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami has seized control of this series and there has been nothing remotely fluky about it. Well, Jimmy Butler getting to shoot a pair of “walkoff” free throws in Game 2 might seem a bit fluky. But remember that situation came after a somewhat improbable late game run by the Bucks. The Heat have held the league’s highest scoring offense to just 109 points per game. Going back to the regular season, they have had Milwaukee’s number, winning four of the five meetings. The only loss came here in the bubble and even then the Heat led that game by 17 at halftime. Miami is now 6-0 ATS in the NBA Playoffs and has allowed 104 points or less in four of those wins. Milwaukee is the East’s #1 seed, but they’ve looked like an inferior side the first two games. Quite frankly, they haven’t looked right this whole time in the bubble. They’re only 5-9-1 ATS with three of the covers coming against Orlando. They are also just 3-8 SU when you take out that first round series. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-120 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER While Denver was taken to a 7th game by Utah, a series that just wrapped up Tuesday, let us also not forget the Clippers went six games against the Dallas Mavericks. These teams did meet earlier in the bubble with the Clippers winning 124-111. But they were only four point favorites for that game and trailed by eight at the half. This Game 1 number certainly seems to be inflated as far as we’re concerned. That’s probably due to the two fewer days of rest that Denver and the fact they were just the 12th team in NBA history to win a series in which it trailed 3-1. But Gary Harris is back for them now. Jamal Murray had three straight games of more than 42 points before Game 7 vs. Utah. Twice he went for 50. The Nuggets have covered six of the last nine times they’ve been getting points. The Clippers can be inconsistent, sometimes taking “nights off” and there are scoring issues behind Kawhi Leonard. This is too many points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SOUTHERN MISS So Southern Mississippi is a decided favorite over South Alabama and we can’t say that we’re surprised. South Alabama has won all of five games the previous two seasons and was 2-10 SU in 2019. Head coach Steve Campbell really needs to show improvement in year three. The only problem is he’s got just 11 starters back from a team that wasn’t good in the first place. The Jaguars enter 2020 pretty thin along both lines - offensive and defensive. Southern Miss has gone 28-22 SU in four years under Jay Hopson. QB Abraham is back leading an offense that put up 6.1 yards per play last season. The Golden Eagles have covered five of the last seven games against the Sun Belt, though this is the first-ever meeting with South Alabama. USA did not have a good offense last year. Though they showed signs late, the Jaguars still ended up averaging just 18.4 points/game. We look for Southern Miss to control in the trenches and their pass rush should get after South Alabama QB Trotter. Play on Southern Miss AAA |
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09-01-20 | Canucks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VAN +1.5 (PL) We’ve gone 10-1 when playing the puck line in 2020 including a perfect 5-0 since the restart. Opportunities are obviously getting scarce as the playoffs progress with money lines tightening up. But here is a chance to take the Canucks +1.5 when everyone has likely “given up” on them. We didn’t give up on Vancouver in Game 2 when they were coming off a 5-0 loss in the series opener. Now they’ve lost Games 3 and 4 by scores of 3-0 and 5-3. Those games were played on back to back days following three days off due to the protests. Now the Canucks find themselves needing a win to stay alive in this best of seven series. Whether or not they can pull that off remains to be seen but we do like them to at least stay within one goal of the Golden Knights in Game 5. They had the lead going into the third period of Game 4, 2-1, but then gave up three goals in the span of 5:57. The only other time that the Canucks were off two straight losses here in the bubble, they came up big, beating St. Louis 4-3 to take control of the last series. They are 7-2 the L9 times playing on one day’s rest. Play on VANCOUVER +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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08-30-20 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-107 | Win | 101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The Nuggets are one more loss away from their season ending. This was also the case heading into Game 5 which they won 117-107 to stay alive. Before staying alive in Game 5, we took the points with Denver in Game 4 and they also covered the spread there. They are now 5-0 ATS the last two seasons when trailing in a playoff series after covering the last two games. Utah is 5-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this year. They are just 1-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series the last two years. The Jazz have very little to offer offensively other than Donovan Mitchell, something that has become readily obvious in their two SU losses in this series. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-29-20 | Blazers +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland won’t have Damian Lillard as they try and stave off elimination in tonight’s Game 5 against the Lakers. After an 8-2 start to the bubble, they’ve lost three straight games, two of them by 20 or more points. None of the preceding sounds good for tonight. But, predictably, there’s been an overreaction by the oddsmakers here in the wake of the Lillard injury. They had to do it as the public will overwhelmingly bet the Lakers here. But we’re not convinced the line move should have been 7 points. Even without their best player, look for Portland to compete. Beyond its two stars - LeBron and Anthony Davis - the Lakers don’t have much depth, especially in the backcourt. Los Angeles is also a poor three-point shooting team. They made 56.3% of their shots in Game 4, a number they won’t come close to matching tonight. Games 2 and 4 are the only double digit wins the Lakers have in the bubble. The Blazers have some players, notably CJ McCollum, who can step up. They are 4-1 ATS off a double digit loss. We think the extra time between games well help the Blazers adjust to "life without Lillard." Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-25-20 | Canucks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VANCOUVER +1.5 Game 1 probably couldn’t have gone much worse for the Canucks as they lost 5-0 to the Golden Knights. Despite taking the Knights ourselves, even we were taken aback by how one-sided the game got. But now we expect the Canucks to bounce back in Game 2 and at least keep the score within one goal. Prior to being blown out in Game 1, Vancouver had won 7 of 9 games with just one loss in regulation. Vegas has four one-goal victories in the bubble and won two other games in which they trailed by at least two goals. It can be argued that Game 1 was the Knights best game since the restart. It was certainly Vancouver’s worst effort. The Canucks were also shut out in their first game (3-0 by Minnesota) but then came back to win the next five. That they have never beaten Vegas in regulation all-time is pretty shocking. They have won Game 2 in both previous series. Expect a much closer Game 2 with Vancouver possibly pulling the upset. Play on VANCOUVER +1.5 AAA |
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08-24-20 | Bucks -13.5 v. Magic | Top | 121-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE While Orlando did pull the upset in Game One, things have quickly (and predictably) swung in Milwaukee’s favor in this series. Now the top-seeded Bucks can take a commanding 3-1 series advantage and there’s really no doubt in our minds that will happen. They are of course big favorites to beat the Magic in Game Four Monday afternoon and why wouldn’t they be? The last two games have seen them hold halftime advantages of 21 and 27 points. The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game Three, an uber-efficient performance where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 35 pts on 12 of 14 shooting. The Magic are short-handed and have covered only 4 of their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS when leading in a playoff series and while this is a lot of points to lay, they are just that much better than their opponents here. This series likely ends in five games and Milwaukee will win big today. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 103 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER The Nuggets have quickly gone from favorites to underdogs in this series as they’ve lost the last two games by a combined 56 points. If that sounds bad, well it is. But it's not over yet for Denver as they did win Game 1 (in overtime) and a win here would even the series back up. You have to think the Nuggets are going to shoot better than they did in Game 3. They made just 37.5% of their total attempts including only 12 of 38 three-pointers. The big story was the return of Mike Conley for Utah as he made seven threes on his way to a 27-point game. The Jazz have been somewhat inconsistent on offense during their time in the bubble as they definitely miss 2nd leading scorer Bogdanovic. Now it's Denver hoping for a return (Gary Harris) on Sunday as they look to move to 4-0 ATS the last four times they have been trailing in a playoff series. Utah is just 4-15-2 ATS the last 21 times it has been a favorite and they’re just 2-6 ATS coming off an ATS win. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-22-20 | Lakers v. Blazers +7.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND After upsetting the Lakers in Game 1, Portland got run out of the gym in Game 2. They were down 30 after three quarters and lost 111-88 in what was easily their worst showing in the NBA bubble. Previous to that, the Blazers had lost only twice and those two losses were by a total of nine points. After scoring at least 124 in all but one seeding game, they’ve been held to an average of 94 points/game by the Lakers. We like them to bounce back in Game 3 and at the very least keep it close. Game 2 aside, the Lakers have not played all that well in the bubble as they are just 2-8 against the spread with six outright defeats. Offensive efficiency is way down, especially when LeBron James is off the court. They have just two wins by more than three points since the restart and have failed to hit 100 four different times. A second straight blowout seems unlikely, so grab the points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-21-20 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH -1.5 Despite enduring a COVID-19 outbreak just as the season was getting underway, Miami ended up winning 7 of its first 8 games. They’ve since gone 2-8 with yesterday’s game against the Mets being postponed due to two positive (COVID) tests in the Mets organization. Thus it marked the first time in six days where the Marlins DIDN’T lose (lost 5 in a row overall). Today they’re in Washington D.C. and the losing should continue as they face a Nationals team that has their number. The Nats went 15-4 vs. Miami last year and were 13-4 against them the season before that. Washington also had Thursday off, but unlike the Marlins, it was a scheduled off-day. They’ve actually been off for two days as Wednesday’s game vs. Atlanta was rained out. We look for the Nationals to come out strong and take this series opener rather easily. Pat Corbin gets the start and he was 3-0 vs. Miami last season with a 1.55 ERA in four starts. He limited them to a .165 batting average while striking out 29 and walking just five. As of now, Miami is scheduled to go with Eliser Hernandez. But they could change to rookie Daniel Castano. Either way, the Nationals win. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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08-20-20 | Blazers +7 v. Lakers | Top | 88-111 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland shocked a lot of people by beating the Lakers 100-93 in Game 1, but not us. This team came into the bubble needing to win almost every game and that’s exactly what they have done. They’ve gone 8-2 in their 10 games with the only two losses coming by a combined nine points. That the Blazers were able to win Game 1 despite a poor offensive night has to scare the Lakers. Portland shot just 39.2% Tuesday night, a far cry from the multiple 124+ point efforts we’ve seen from them in Orlando. As for the Lakers, they are 1-8 ATS in the bubble and struggling to make shots. They haven’t even hit 100 four different times. Their shooting percentage and offensive efficiency, particularly when LeBron James is off the court, has been woeful. We just don’t see how LA is going to win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for here, if they even win at all tonight. Besides James and Anthony Davis, the rest of the Lakers combined for just 42 points on 32.1% shooting in Game 1. Since the restart, the top seed has ONE win by more than three points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-20-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston was our Game of the Month on Tuesday and they came through with flying colors, clobbering Oklahoma City by a score of 123-108 and it wasn’t even that close as the Rockets led by 21 going into the fourth. This despite not having the services of Russell Westbrook, but we projected James Harden to have a big game and that’s exactly what happened as “The Beard” delivered a 37-point effort. He’s certainly capable of scoring even more than that and we think he will in Game 2. Even without Westbrook, Houston is the better team here. The Thunder overachieved both before and after the restart, but this could be a quick series if they’re not careful. You’ll notice that OKC is now the underdog after opening as the slightest favorite for Game 1. While priced more appropriately, we still don’t like the Thunder’s chances in this one as Gallinari had a career-high 29 points in Game 1 and that didn’t matter. His chances of matching that number this afternoon are slim at best. The Rockets are simply the better team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-19-20 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Philadelphia lost Game 1 109-101 and failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. All told, it wasn’t that disappointing a performance as the Sixers led going into the 4th quarter. That is when they went cold. The good news is they held Boston to just 42% shooting and it took every bit of Jayson Tatum’s career playoff highs of 32 points and 13 rebounds to get the Celtics the ‘W.’ While the 76ers are without Ben Simmons, they still should compete in this series and we like them plus the points in Game 2. Late in Game 1, Gordon Hayward suffered a severe ankle sprain, meaning Boston will be without him for likely four weeks. That’s a big loss. The Celtics are not a deep team. Including Hayward, they have just six players that rate better than average in terms of RPM. They are just 1-4 ATS off the last five ATS wins and we’re going “zig zag” here. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-18-20 | Thunder v. Rockets +1.5 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 103 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston will be without Russell Westbrook for an indefinite period of time, but let’s not forget that Harden fellow and what he’s capable of doing. The Rockets did lose their last three games, but really had nothing to play for and that should be taken into account. Before that, they’d started the bubble 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Oklahoma City went 4-4 in its eight games as well, albeit in much different fashion. They alternated wins and losses the entire way, meaning not one time did they win OR lose back to back games. They are hoping that pattern continues as it would mean a win here. But we feel differently as the Rockets are being undervalued because of the Westbrook absence. Certainly that matters, but Harden has averaged 35.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists in the bubble with a 53.2 FG%. Two other Rockets have had 40+ point games this year, one of the Austin Rivers’ whose career-high 41 point effort came in the bubble. Houston has enough to get the job done and Oklahoma City hasn’t really had all of its pieces together here in Orlando with Schroeder missing time and Adams hurt. Chris Paul has a hand injury worth monitoring as well. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-17-20 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS Dallas is just 3-5 since the restart while the Clippers have gone 5-3. It’s a tough break that a team as talented as the Mavericks fell to the 7-seed and drew a first round matchup with Los Angeles. But it is also a bit of a “tough draw” for the Clippers. The Mavs are one of the top offensive teams in the league and pose a threat that other potential first round opponents (like Utah or Oklahoma City) would not have. These teams met on August 6th and while LA won 126-111, it was a tie game with just over six minutes remaining. That’s with the Clippers shooting exceptionally well and the Mavs having an “off game” at the offensive end. Luka Doncic is averaging a triple double in the bubble with 32 points/game. The Mavericks have averaged 125 points/game since returning and that makes them a “tough out” as an underdog. The spread was only 3.5 when these teams met 11 days ago. Nothing has really changed significantly for either side since then, so the dog screams VALUE. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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08-13-20 | Blackhawks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO +1.5 The Blackhawks did not have much of an answer for the Golden Knights in Game 1, losing 4-1, and they now face an uphill climb down 0-1 in the series. Vegas, who has yet to lose since the restart (4-0), has scored four or more goals in every game so far. But they trailed by multiple goals in each of the first two games and then needed overtime to best Colorado and earn the West’s #1 overall seed. We’ll call for Chicago to be more competitive here in Game 2, which is pretty close to a “must win” for them in a best of seven series. Note that the Blackhawks have gone 6-1 the last seven times they’ve been off a loss by three or more goals. That includes a Game 3 win against Edmonton in the qualification round. Play CHICAGO +1.5 AAA |
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08-12-20 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Flyers | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 6* on MONTREAL +1.5 Philadelphia is the hottest team in the league since January 8th. They’d won 9 of 10 going into the shutdown and then won all three round robin games to earn the Eastern Conference’s top seed. Drawing Montreal in the Round of 16 seems like a gift based on seeding, but the Flyers must be wary of Carey Price, the Canadiens’ outstanding goaltender. Price gives his team a chance to steal any game, something the Penguins found out the hard way in the qualification series. It only took four games for the Habs to eliminate the Pens, which is somewhat of a shocking result given Pittsburgh came into the series at full strength. But Price was the difference maker with a .947 save percentage. That’s the best save percentage for any goalie in the bubble. Montreal being a 12-seed is something that can be overlooked. Twice in the Pittsburgh series, we took the Habs +1.5. Both times they won. At the very least, look for Price to keep Game 1 within a one-goal margin. Play on MONTREAL +1.5 AAA |
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08-12-20 | Raptors v. 76ers +8.5 | Top | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA It’s a battle of backups Wednesday but we’re counting on the Sixers showing a little pride in this early evening matchup against the Raptors. It’s not like Philadelphia has played poorly its last two games, where they have been almost entirely without the services of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Simmons’ season is now over while Embiid was hurt early in the 124-121 loss to Portland Sunday night. Yesterday saw Philly compete for 3+ quarters against a highly motivated Suns squad. This is a lot of points to lay with a Raptors team that has nothing to play for as they are locked into the Eastern Conference’s second seed. Coming off an impressive win against Milwaukee on Monday, their level of motivation for this one can certainly be called into question. Their last four victories have come by an average of just 7.5 points/game. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-10-20 | Thunder v. Suns -3 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 6* on PHOENIX The Suns have been the hottest team in the league since the restart. They’re 5-0 SU/ATS, which has them on the cusp of the Western Conference’s play-in scenario. Finishing 8th and not 9th has its advantages in that you only have to win once (as opposed to twice) to make the playoffs. But right now the Suns just need to keep winning as they are 10th, a full game behind 9th place Portland (won Sunday) and 1.5 games back of 8th place Memphis (lost yesterday) They’ve already beaten four teams with .500 or better records here in Orlando, the latest being Miami by a score of 119-112 - as a 4-point favorite - on Saturday. They were led by Devin Booker’s 35 points. We have to admit that it was a bit eye-opening to see the Suns open as the favorite here and get bet up. But they’ll have more motivation than the Thunder, who also are at the disadvantage of having played yesterday. Oklahoma City won Sunday, 121-103, but don’t put a ton of stock into that as they played Washington (worst team in the bubble). They also made a season-high 18 three-pointers, shooting that won’t be matched today. Unlike all the other teams competing for the 8-seed, Phoenix can claim to have a positive net efficiency rating for the year. This team has the momentum and you should expect them to win Monday afternoon. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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08-09-20 | Rockets -4.5 v. Kings | Top | 129-112 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston is likely to finish anywhere from 4th to 6th when the “regular season” concludes. Normally, finishing 4th would be a big deal as it would earn you home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But there is no home court advantage any more. Despite that lack of incentive, we still expect the Rockets to “go off” on Sunday against a Kings team that is prone to far too many defensive lapses. Time is running out on the Kings to finish in a position where they could play themselves into the postseason. The way things stand now, they’d have to jump four teams. It’s not mathematically impossible by any means, however, it’s highly unlikely considering the Kings record thus far is 1-4 and they just lost to Brooklyn by double digits. Houston has beaten both Milwaukee and the Lakers and while LA didn’t have LeBron, the Rockets didn’t have Russell Westbrook in that game either. Westbrook is again expected to sit out here but with James Harden still in the lineup, you can look for Houston to score plenty against the team that’s posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league since the restart. The Rockets are off three straight Unders and have gone 6-1 ATS in that situation this season. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-09-20 | 76ers v. Blazers -2 | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND Saturday was a blown opportunity for the Blazers as they led a lead get away and lost to the Clippers, who were playing without Kawhi Leonard. This leaves them 1.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot in the West. The Grizzlies are heavy underdogs to the Raptors today, so a win here could very well pull Portland back within one-half game. All they have to do is finish 9th to force a play-in but finishing 8th has its advantages. Also the Blazers must worry about all the teams that are narrowly behind them as finishing 9th is far from a given. Bottom line is that today is “must-win” territory against a Sixers team that was already offensively challenged before losing Ben Simmons. Philadelphia is 3-1 SU in the bubble, but only 1-3 ATS. This will be the first time that the 76ers have been an underdog in a game. They are just 6-16 SU in the underdog role for the season and among those still playing, they have the worst road record of any team besides Washington. Portland really has to have this game. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-07-20 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA -1.5 Shockingly, the Dodgers could only manage a four-game split with the Giants when they met two weeks ago in LA. The Dodgers took the first two games 9-1 and 8-1 and everything seemed normal. But then they lost the next two two, 5-4 and 3-1, both losses coming as huge money line favorites. Everything points in the Dodgers direction for Friday, the first time they’ll have faced their rivals since the four-game split. The Dodgers are 7-2 since that series and own the best run differential in baseball at +33. The Giants have gone just 4-6 their L10 and were beaten yesterday in Colorado 6-4. The Dodgers had Thursday off after a thrilling win over the Padres the night prior. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks very one-sided with Urias having a 2.45 ERA for LA and Samardzija having a 9.31 ERA for SF. Playing the run line here, that means the Dodgers have to win by two runs. Shouldn’t be a problem. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 122-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO The defending NBA Champion Raptors don’t get the respect they deserve, but they are very likely to get the East’s #2 seed. They can clinch that position with a win tonight over Boston, who is in the #3 spot and likely to finish there. Going back to before the lockdown, Toronto has won seven in a row. That is the longest active win streak in the NBA. They’ve won their three games in Orlando by holding opponents to an average of 98 points/game. That’s remarkable considering how much scoring we’ve seen in the bubble. Even scarier is that Kyle Lowry has shot just 4 for 17 from the field the last two games. Look for his shooting to improve tonight. Boston was red hot shooting the ball Tuesday (56.8 FG%!) but that was against a weak Brooklyn team. The Celtics have issues defending as they’ve given up 112 points in every game so far. Their interior defense was a big question mark heading into the restart and remain so. The Raptors are 29-19 ATS as favorites this season. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-06-20 | Pacers v. Suns +3 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX Phoenix shocked the Clippers on Tuesday, winning the game outright, 117-115 as a 9.5-point underdog. While they did need a Devin Booker “walkoff,” the Suns led the game most of the way and were pretty impressive. They’re now 3-0 since the restart with wins over two playoff teams (Dallas, Clippers) as they try and force their way into a play-in scenario for the 8-seed. Indiana is also 3-0 SU/ATS in the bubble as Victor Oladipo reversed course on a prior decision and has decided to play here in Orlando. The Pacers looked very good in their last game, a 120-109 win over Orlando, but it’s worth mentioning they’ve yet to face a team from the West here in the bubble. The Pacers and Suns have a common win over Washington, but the Suns other two wins (Dallas, Clippers) are far more impressive than the Pacers’ (Philly, Orlando). The Suns did lose badly to the Pacers at home back in January, but are 15-7 ATS this year when seeking revenge for a home defeat. We think the Suns are a good value here. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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08-05-20 | Penguins v. Canadiens +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MONTREAL +1.5 We had Montreal +1.5 in Game 1, which they won straight up, and then in Game 2 it was only a 2-1 game with 10 seconds remaining when the Pens scored an empty net goal. So we’ll back the Habs again on the puck line here as it’s fairly clear that goalie Carey Price gives them a chance to win on any given night. Price has been under fire all throughout the two games, but has made 74 saves on 78 shots and proven himself to be up for the challenge. Historically speaking, the Penguins aren’t great in this spot, dropping six of their seven games as a playoff favorite (Game 2 was the only win). Also the underdog has won six of the last eight times these teams have played. The Canadiens won’t do any worse than a one-goal loss here as they’ve got the better goaltender, which means they’re always going to be in the game. Play on MONTREAL +1.5 AAA |
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08-04-20 | Rockets v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Houston is 2-0 since the restart with wins over Dallas and Milwaukee. Impressive as that sounds, the Rockets trailed by double digits in both games. They were down 11 entering the 4th quarter vs. the Mavericks and needed all of James Harden’s 49 points to pull out a 152-149 overtime victory. Against the Bucks, the much maligned defense once again stepped up late. It is impressive that the Rockets could beat the Bucks despite shooting below 40% but we also don’t think they can keep winning in the manner we’ve seen the first two games. Portland has also played two close games, but split the pair. They were down big to Boston on Sunday, but fought back to make it only a 4-point loss. That was after they beat Memphis in overtime in the first game. Currently in ninth place in the Western Conference, the Blazers are well within the four-games of 8th place Memphis to force a play-in series. Still they really could use the win here as they neck and neck with San Antonio for ninth place. Portland beat Houston twice in the regular season so they’re capable of winning outright again.They are healthier now than they were back then. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS this year coming off an upset win. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS Two teams that are 0-2 since the restart will go at it Monday in Orlando. Memphis faces the more uphill climb here. They played yesterday. It was a 108-106 to the Spurs, a bit of a “double whammy” as that result allowed the Spurs to move within two games of the eighth place Grizzlies. Many thought the Pelicans were going to be the team to chase the Grizz down, but obviously they’re trending in a different direction. It’s a case of Zion Williamson not playing much and going against two good teams. The Pelicans blew a double digit loss vs. Utah, then were embarrassed by the Clippers. Still those are both top four teams in the Western Conference. The teams Memphis lost to are 9th and 10th. This is a must win for the Pelicans, who are 3.5 back of the Grizzlies. With Memphis just 24 hours removed from a tough 2-point loss, they’re in a tough spot. They also played an overtime game Friday. The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies both times they played in the regular season. Both wins were by double digits. The Pelicans have covered 13 of their last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Look for Williamson to be more of a factor today.This team was embarrassed Saturday and will want to make up for that. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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08-02-20 | Bucks v. Rockets +4.5 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston needed every bit of James Harden’s 49 points on Friday to overcome a terrible defensive effort in what ended up being a 153-149 overtime win over Dallas. The Rockets trailed by double digits entering the 4th Quarter, but were then able to hold the Mavericks to just 30 points over the final 17 minutes. The fact Houston played so poorly on the defensive end and had to overcome a late deficit should not bias you here though. While they’re facing Milwaukee, the Bucks won’t have guards Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, so there is a depth issue. The Bucks looked good against Boston Friday, winning 119-112, though Giannis Antetounkmpo probably should have gotten ejected. Also the Bucks raced to a 17-2 lead out of the game, which was the difference in the game. Houston won’t shoot as poorly as the Celtics did (40.7%) and an offensive team like this getting points is a great opportunity. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-01-20 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Penguins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 105 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 Anything can happen in these best of five qualification series, including this one where Montreal meets Pittsburgh. We’re taking the Habs +1.5 on the puck line, meaning they can either win or lose by one goal and it’s still a winning bet. The one edge Montreal has in this series is in goal. Carey Price is better than whomever Pittsburgh goes with (either Tristan Jarry or Matt Murray). Jarry was having the better season, but Murray was more playoff tested. At the same time, Jarry seemed to be slumping before the season stopped as he was 0-4 and allowed 18 goals. Montreal played Pittsburgh three times this year, beat them once and another time took them to overtime. Also, after the All-Star Break, the Canadiens had the third most scoring chances in the league (per 60 mins) when at even strength. They are more than capable of “stealing” Game 1 on Saturday. 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 AAA |
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08-01-20 | Jazz v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 94-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKC The Jazz have already played once, a 106-104 come from behind win over the Pelicans. That preserved their status as the West’s 4th place team for the meantime but a lot can change over the next seven games as they are part of a five-team mess separated by just 3.5 games. Also in that group is Oklahoma City, who has not played yet. The Thunder are 2-0 ATS vs. the Jazz this year, part of an overall 39-24-1 mark at the betting window that is the league’s best. Most impressive of all is that the Thunder are 23-8 ATS on the road. Utah winning that game Thursday night should not make you forget that they trailed by as much as 16 points or that they are without second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic, whose 41.4% three-point shooting will sorely be missed. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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07-26-20 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -160 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON -1.5 Seattle is clearly no match for Houston as they’ve lost the first two games of the series by scores of 8-2 and 7-2. They are now a pathetic 1-19 against the Astros going back to last season. We cashed the Under in yesterday’s Astros romp. Here we will play the ‘Stros, but since that obviously comes at a high price we’re playing the run line of -1.5. We don’t see any reason why Houston shouldn’t win this game by at least two runs as they send Greinke to the hill Sunday. In 14 career appearances vs. Seattle, Greinke is 7-1 with a 1.85 ERA. Believe it or not, he faced them just one time last year. But it was a dominant start which saw him give up just two hits in 8+ innings. Kikuchi would have to pitch out of his mind for the M’s to even have a chance today. That’s probably not going to happen seeing as he faces a lineup that has scored 15 times in two games. Kikuchi’s numbers were not good last season (5.46 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) and he only had 12 quality starts in 32 tries. Easy money here. 8* HOUSTON -1.5 AAA |
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07-24-20 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO +1.5 Now that the playoff field has been expanded to 16 teams, Toronto certainly has a fighting chance. There’s a fairly clear delineation of “haves” and “have nots” within the American League. The Blue Jays were really the only team considered “in between.” Realistically they had little chance of making the playoffs under the normal format (five teams per league). Now with eight, they’ve got a shot. Also in the AL East, Tampa Bay has high hopes for 2020. They believe they can compete with the Yankees. There seems to be a lot of hype going around and thus we believe the Rays enter this first series of the year slightly overvalued. We’ll back Toronto at +1.5, using the run line. All Star outfield Austin Meadows, who last year led the team in both on base percentage and home runs against right-handed pitching, has the coronavirus. Lefty reliever Poche is also expected to miss the 2020 season. We like Ryu starting in Toronto. In case you forgot, he had the lowest ERA in the National League last season (2.32). He's a quality addition. Don’t let the current nomadic nature (no home stadium) of the Blue Jays fool you. They’re a great value Friday. 8* Toronto +1.5 AAA |
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03-11-20 | St. Joe's v. George Mason -4.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GMU The Atlantic 10 Tournament has a clear favorite in Dayton and everybody else probably needs to win this thing in order to make the Big Dance. The longest “road to hoe” belongs to the bottom four, a group which both St. Joseph’s and George Mason can claim to be a part of. These two squads have combined for a total of five wins going back to late January. George Mason has three to St. Joe’s two, the difference being a 62-55 head to head win back on February 22nd. The Patriots just missed out on covering that day as they were 8.5-point favorites. But we like them with a small number attached to them today. Regardless if it’s a true road game or on a neutral court, St. Joe’s has just two wins away from home all season. They give up almost 80 points/game as well. George Mason has won and covered all three of its games in a neutral setting this year. They held St. Joe’s to 33.9% shooting in the regular season game. Play on GEORGE MASON AAA |
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03-10-20 | Magic v. Grizzlies -2 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS Perhaps no team in the entire NBA has defied expectations more than Memphis Grizzlies have. Projected to win only 27 games this season, they’ve already surpassed that number (they’ve won 32 games) and seem poised to make the playoffs as the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies aren’t favored very often, but be sure to take them when they are. Not only do they boast a 14-4 straight up record in the chalk role, they are also 13-5 against the spread. Tonight they host an Orlando team that is 7-1 ATS its last eight games and off a big upset win in Houston. But considering that was only the sixth time the Magic won as an underdog this year, we will gladly lay the short number in this game. Tonight marks the Magic’s 4th road game in the past 7 nights. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNC North Carolina has endured one of the worst single season free falls that we have ever seen. After starting the 2019-20 season 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10, they ended up losing 18 of their final 26 regular season games and in a three-way tie for last in the ACC. But now the ACC Tournament begins and that gives the Tar Heels a “clean slate.” Before losing the final regular season game at Duke, UNC had won and covered its last three games. So there were some signs of a potential breakthrough. The first round tournament opponent is Virginia Tech. They lost to the Hokies 79-77 in January, but did cover the 7.5-point spot. This time UNC is favored as the game isn’t in Blacksburg. Since it defeated UNC, Va Tech has won just twice in 12 games. They are 3-8 straight up and against the spread as underdogs. This spot screams “Tar Heels!” Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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03-09-20 | Raptors +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto won last night in Sacramento 118-113. Playing in the second night of a back to back should not prevent them from being able to win again tonight. The Raptors have won three straight on this road trip, previously winning in Phoenix and Golden State. It’ll be a tougher test tonight in Utah as the Jazz have won five in a row, the last four all coming on the road. But our view is that the better team is getting points and that’s something we can’t look past. Earlier in the year, they crushed the Jazz by 20. They led that game by 40 at halftime! While it was in Toronto, the Raptors are a strong 22-9 in their road games. Utah has been inconsistent this year, a point driven home by the fact this current 5-game run was preceded by a 4-game losing streak. They are just 5-11-1 ATS their past 17 games with only one cover as a favorite in the last eight tries. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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03-09-20 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -8.5 | Top | 73-76 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO The MAC Tournament gets underway tonight. All four first round games are played on campuses before things shift to Cleveland for the quarterfinals on Thursday. Toledo is the home team for this matchup. While the Rockets are only 3-11 ATS at home this season, one of those covers came against Western Michigan, the team they’ll be facing here. They also won at Western Michigan a couple of weeks ago. That made it six straight wins over the Broncos and UT is 5-1 ATS in those same games. The Rockets closed the regular season on a strong 4-1 SU/ATS run, the only loss coming on the road. Western Michigan did not close strong as they’ve lost six of eight with the only two wins both coming in Kalamazoo. WMU is just 3-11 SU on the road. The Broncos scored only 59 points in both regular season matchups vs. Toledo and anything resembling that same defensive effort will bring home an easy ATS win here for the home team. We believe they get the job done as WMU drops to 1-12 ATS its last 13 Monday games! Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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03-09-20 | Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State -6 | Top | 73-56 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WRIGHT ST The Horizon League Tournament moves to Indianapolis tonight for a pair of semifinal matchups. The one we’re targeting sees the top seed Wright State facing the #4 seed Illinois-Chicago. While Wright State did beat UIC pretty big (17 points) at home in the regular season, they did lose 76-72 as 6.5-point road favorites in the first meeting of the year. So don’t look for the Raiders to take this game lightly. Because they were regular season champs, Wright State got a double bye into the semifinals whereas UIC has had to win twice to get here. Both of those wins for UIC came at home. The Flames are going to have to figure out a way to defend a Wright State team that comes in averaging more than 81 points/game. If that’s not enough, Wright State has had nine days off. The Raiders have gone 5-1 ATS in Horizon League Tourney games the past two seasons and that includes a pair of semifinal victories. Look for them to easily move on to their third straight Final. Play on WRIGHT STATE AAA |
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03-08-20 | Magic +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 126-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ORLANDO Orlando has seen a recent surge in scoring, leading to their last 10 games all going Over the total. They just hung 132 points in a win at Minnesota Friday night and are now 6-1 ATS the last seven games. Tonight they are getting a generous number of points from a Houston team that’s moving in the WRONG direction. The Rockets were the hottest team in the league not long ago but have gone 0-3 straight up and against the spread in March. Two of those losses came to the Knicks and Hornets, teams far worse off than Magic right now. Despite giving up more points than usual lately, the Magic are still top five in the league in fewest points allowed for the season. They give up 107.2 per game. Orlando has covered its last five road games. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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03-08-20 | Delaware +1.5 v. College of Charleston | Top | 79-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DELAWARE Quarterfinal action in the CAA here with Delaware taking on Charleston. The winner of this game is likely to play top seed Hofstra in the semifinals tomorrow. Delaware finished with a better overall record than Charleston this year (21-10 vs. 17-13). However Charleston is the higher seed as both were 11-7 in conference play and they had the tiebreaker. The tiebreaker was of course head to head play. Charleston beat Delaware twice this season and is a perfect 6-0 the last six meetings. They are 6-0 ATS in those games as well. That sets this up to be a major revenge situation for the Blue Hens. Both games vs. Charleston this year saw Delaware shoot poorly. They made just over 40% of their FGA in each game. That’s irregular. For the season, the Blue Hens are shooting over 48%. We’ll say they shoot a lot better today. The Blue Hens are also 5-1 ATS in their past six neutral court games. Play on DELAWARE AAA |
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03-07-20 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -3.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CREIGHTON This is the game that will determine the Big East’s regular season champion. It’s Seton Hall’s title to lose as the 8th ranked Pirates come into Saturday with a one-game advantage over #11 Creighton. But the Bluejays have the tiebreaker having already gone on the road and beat the Pirates 87-82 last month. Creighton has lost only once in its last seven games and that was when we played against them last Sunday at St. John’s. Consider that result to be an anomaly as the Bluejays quickly bounced back with a 91-point effort here at home vs. Georgetown on Wednesday. They’ve now won 10 of 12 overall and are 17-1 straight up at home where they are averaging a very healthy 83.5 points per game. Seton Hall can only blame itself for being in this position as they left the door open by losing to Villanova at home Wednesday night. The Pirates couldn’t stop Creighton from scoring a ton the first meeting. There’s no reason to believe they’ll be able to stop them here. Play on CREIGHTON AAA |
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03-07-20 | Auburn v. Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE Tennessee rallied back from a 17-point deficit to stun #6 Kentucky on the road Tuesday. For them, it had to feel like “just desserts” given that they blew a 17-point lead and lost earlier this year. That was to Auburn, who they’ll face here in the final regular season game of the year. This is a great shot for the Volunteers to post their second straight win over a ranked opponent, although this one would not be considered an upset. For the third time this season, Auburn has lost two straight. They’ve yet to lose three in a row but have lost four of their last six including an 0-3 road record. Wednesday saw them lose at home to Texas A&M as a 12-point favorite. Tennessee has had an extra day to prepare here and with this being Senior Day, you’ve got to think they’ll come out as the more motivated side in this contest. Auburn is just 2-7 ATS on the road this year and will have to figure out a way to score against a team that’s giving up less than 60 points per game at home. We don’t think they figure it out. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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03-06-20 | Ohio v. Miami-OH -1.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Not much on the line here in the final regular season game for Ohio and Miami, so we’ll defer to the home side on “Senior Night.” The teams have played well of late. Ohio is 9-2 ATS its last 11 games and 5-0 ATS the last five. But they still have a losing record in MAC play at 7-10 straight up. Miami is in last place at 5-12 SU, but they’ve won their last two home games. Tonight is a chance for the RedHawks to avenge their worst loss of the season, which took place in Athens on February 8th. Ohio won that day 77-46. But Miami is 6-1 ATS since that loss. While they are 1-11 SU on the road this year, they are 10-5 SU at home. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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03-06-20 | Kent State v. Akron -6.5 | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Akron Rivals Kent State and Akron close out their respective regular seasons against one another here and there’s plenty at stake. Akron has surged to the top of the MAC East by winning seven of its last eight games and can clinch the top seed in the conference tournament with a win here. Seeing as they also have revenge for a one-point loss they suffered at Kent State on January 31st, the Zips’ motivation ought to be at a season-high tonight. We look for them to get the job done as they’ve gone an impressive 14-2 at home this year while allowing only 62.7 points per contest. Since beating Akron in the first go around, Kent State has a losing record and hasn’t posted back to back wins. They just beat Bowling Green at home on Tuesday. But on the road the Golden Flashes tend to struggle as their scoring average dips from 81.9 at home down to 68.1. They are also just 2-6 ATS off a league win this year. Play on AKRON AAA |
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03-05-20 | Raptors v. Warriors +8 | Top | 121-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the WARRIORS Steph Curry returns tonight to a Warriors team that is nothing like it’s been at any point in the last five seasons. The three-time NBA champs have the worst record in the league at 14-48. Golden State has won only five times in 2020, though two of those have come in the last three games. Perhaps motivated by the former MVP’s impending return, Curry’s teammates won in Denver two nights ago 116-110 as a 16-point underdog. Tonight, in a rematch of last year’s Finals, the Warriors face the Raptors. We expect this to be one of the high points of a lost season in Golden State. Yes, to expect Curry to play at an MVP-level right away would be foolish. But he doesn’t need to. The Warriors are still clear underdogs and only need to keep it close. Toronto has injuries as well with Fred Van Vleet and Serge Ibaka both expected not to play. Before beating Phoenix Tuesday, the Raptors had lost three straight and four of six. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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03-05-20 | Boise State v. UNLV -2 | Top | 67-61 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNLV UNLV hosts Boise State in the second of four Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals today. We like the tourney hosts for a variety of reasons here, namely that they come in hot. Five straight wins and covers have the Rebels primed to make a little noise this weekend and remember they are the only team to beat top seed San Diego State this entire season! The Runnin’ Rebels just beat Boise State here at the Thomas & Mack Center on Feb 26th, 76-66 as two-point favorites. They led by 12 at halftime and coasted from there. Boise State is just 4-8 on the road this season. The loss at UNLV was their regular season finale while the Rebels have since picked up a dominant 92-69 win at San Jose State. Their recent form can’t be ignored here and even if Long (knee) can’t go, they remain a safe bet. After all, they have covered 11 of the 16 times they have been a favorite in this season. Play on UNLV AAA |
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03-04-20 | Grizzlies v. Nets -2 | Top | 118-79 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Brooklyn is off a huge win last night as they came back from a 17-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter to upset Boston 129-120 in overtime. They were 6.5 point underdogs and led by Caris LeVert’s 51 points. Now they face a quick turnaround to host Memphis. Most will look at this as a bad spot for the Nets, but they are at home. The Grizzlies have a losing record away from home and while they are off 39-point road win, it was against Atlanta. They were actually an underdog in that game due to multiple players being injured. Those same players - Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson - are both out tonight as well. The Grizzlies were fortunate to get a very balanced offensive attack against Atlanta (9 players in double figures!) but can’t count on that every night. Nor can they count on every opponent shooting as poorly as Atlanta did (32.5%!). Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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03-03-20 | Devils v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS -1.5 Vegas is a huge favorite tonight and for good reason. They’d won eight in a row prior to Sunday’s surprising 4-1 loss to the Kings. That loss was at home, but in our opinion it’s no reason to be concerned. Another last place team comes to their rink tonight and while the Devils just beat Anaheim 3-0, they’d previously two straight on this road trip which began more than a week ago. For Vegas, tonight marks the end of a four-game homestand. You know they want to end it on a high-note. What was so odd about that loss to the Kings is the Knights finished with a 43-17 edge in shots including 19-1 in the third period. They just couldn’t get anything past Calvin Petersen. The good news is that the Golden Knights have won five straight times after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Our call is to play Vegas at -1.5 on the puck line here. Play VEGAS -1.5 AAA |
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03-02-20 | Jazz -7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 126-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Give credit to Cleveland for playing better since the firing of former coach John Beilein. They’ve even posted home wins against the likes of Miami and Philadelphia. But those teams seem to be unique in how much they struggle on the road. Utah, who finally ended its losing streak (at four games) Friday, should have little difficulty coming in here and winning. The Cavs have lost two in a row, to New Orleans and Indiana. They still rate as one of the league’s worst teams. Utah winning its last game 129-119 over Washington should jumpstart a nice run for them as they fight for position in the Western Conference. They are the more rested team here and should put up another big total like they did vs. Washington. The Cavs are last in the league in defensive efficiency (Wizards are second to last). Donovan Mitchell has scored 30 or more in the last four games for Utah and should continue that streak in a big win tonight. Play on UTAH AAA |
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03-02-20 | NC State v. Duke -12.5 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DUKE Duke lost to Virginia Saturday, its second loss in a row and third in the last four games. But the one constant in those three defeats is that they all took place on the road. We were on the right side of that Virginia game Saturday with the Blue Devils getting held to a season-low 50 points. They faltered down the stretch yet again, just like they did against Wake Forest a few days prior. But back at Cameron Indoor, we look for the Blue Devils to make a statement tonight on ESPN. They are winning by more than 21 points/game at home this season. This is also a very big revenge spot. Duke lost to NC State by 22 two weeks ago in Raleigh. That was their worst loss of the season and something the players haven’t forgotten. This will be the first time this year that the Blue Devils take the floor with in-season revenge. They have won 10 of the last 11 times they’ve been seeking revenge for a road loss, covering the spread seven times. NC State is 0-3 ATS since the upset of Duke and lost at North Carolina. Play on DUKE AAA |
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03-01-20 | 76ers +13 v. Clippers | Top | 130-136 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We all know about the Sixers’ struggles on the road. While the league’s preeminent home team (28-2 SU at home!), Philly is only 9-21 straight up in road games. That difference of -19 (home vs. road wins) is seven games more than the team with the second biggest split. Today they are at the Clippers, who have won three straight games by double digits. Two were at home and those margins of victory were 27 and 29 points. Despite all of this, we are grabbing the big number with the road dog. You’re not likely to get this many points with the Sixers in any game all season. Obviously that has to do with the fact Joel Embiid will miss the game with a shoulder injury. Ben Simmons is out too. But still this is too many points. The Clippers can have “off-nights” defensively and the Sixers have still won 6 out of their last 8 games. There’s been just one time all season that LA covered four in a row and it was back in December. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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03-01-20 | Creighton v. St. John's +5.5 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. JOHN'S Creighton and St. John’s are in very different places as we approach the final week of the regular season. Creighton has surged to the top of the Big East by winning and covering its last five games. Plus they are 9-1 SU L10. St. John’s lost leading scorer Mustapha Heron and is 2-9 straight up its last 11 games (0-3 L3) as well as 1-6 against the spread its last seven. But the good news for St. John’s Sunday is they are playing at home and they are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread this year when off three consecutive losses. Even without Heron, we like their chances today due to the fact Creighton simply isn’t the same team on the road that they are at home. Scoring drops from 83.1 points/game down to 72.5 and that should be enough for St. John’s to at least earn itself the cover here. They are 5-1 ATS their last six times as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points including a perfect 3-0 this season. Play on ST. JOHN’S AAA |
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02-29-20 | Duke v. Virginia +3.5 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on VIRGINIA Duke has tasted defeat twice in its past three games and both losses came on the road. The most recent was a real stunner as they gave up 113 points in a double overtime loss to Wake Forest. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in four straight road games. Tonight they are at defending National Champ Virginia. While the champs may not be the same team they were last year, they are rounding into form at the right time. It’s five straight wins by the Cavaliers and while four of those have been by three points or less, the offense has increased to 61.4 points/game. That may not sound like much (and it isn’t!) but when you are allowing only 49.5 points/game at home, then it’s plenty. Note Duke is only 4-12 ATS this season after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. Virginia has been a home underdog only one other time all year and they won that game (vs. Florida State) by five. They are 6-2 ATS the last three seasons when getting points. Led by their outstanding defense, Virginia gets the cash here. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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02-28-20 | Wizards v. Jazz -10 | Top | 119-129 | Push | 0 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH A long homestand typically provides a team an opportunity to start rolling, but in the case of the current one for the Utah Jazz, that certainly hasn’t been the case. The last four games have all ended with them on the “short end of the stick.” Adding insult to injury, they were favored in all four games. But tonight should be a reprieve with Washington paying a visit. The Wizards are off a win, but that was against a Nets team that is playing without Kyrie Irving. The two games before that, the Wizards got 50+ point games from Bradley Beal and still lost! On January 12th, the Jazz went to D.C. and won 127-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Winning by more at home shouldn’t prove too difficult. The Wizards are 7-21 SU on the road and it can’t be stressed enough just how bad they have been defensively. They are giving up an average of 123.5 points in road games, the highest such average in the league. Expect a big bounce back effort from the home team tonight. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-27-20 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State -4 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on North Dakota St This is perhaps the biggest regular season game the Summit League will see all year as second place North Dakota State hosts first place South Dakota State. The road team has won eight straight to climb into the pole position and that win streak started with a win over the Bison back on January 22nd. But it was only a five point win in which the Jackrabbits shot an amazing 55.8% from the field and made 24 of 38 shots inside the arc. That will not happen again on the road as ND State is the team more likely to “go off” offensively this time as they are averaging 81.4 points/game at home. The Bison had their own win streak stopped at seven games last Saturday with a three point loss at North Dakota. Maybe they were looking ahead to this showdown? Regardless, they are now 1.5 games back of South Dakota State, which makes tonight a “must-win.” The Bison are 11-1 on their home floor this year. All eight of South Dakota State’s losses this year have been on the road. Play on NORTH DAKOTA STATE AAA |
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02-26-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +7.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND On Monday, Cleveland hosted a top 5 team in the East (Miami) whose play dips rather significantly on the road. Sure enough, the Cavs beat the Heat in overtime, 125-119 as a 6.5-point home underdog. It was a rather shocking come from behind effort as the Cavs trailed by 19 going into the fourth quarter. Of course, the Heat’s road woes are well documented. We bring this up because the team Cleveland hosts tonight sees an even more dramatic dropoff when they are on the road and that’s Philadelphia. The Sixers are a league-best 27-2 straight up at home. But their road record is 9-20. That is easily the biggest gap any team in the league has when it comes to home vs. road wins. So can Cleveland pull the same trick twice in a row? Not sure about them winning straight up tonight, but we do like the points as the 76ers are 1-9 ATS in road games where the total is 220 or higher. They are 4-8-1 ATS as a road favorite with six outright losses. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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02-26-20 | Rutgers v. Penn State -6 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PENN ST Yet another play from the Big 10 (had Michigan St last night), so we’ll mention again just how deep this conference is as it looks like 10 teams will be sent to the NCAA Tournament. But despite the depth, there are advantages to be had, especially when certain teams play on the road. We didn’t give Iowa much of a chance last night in East Lansing and the same holds true tonight for Rutgers in State College, PA. To say the Scarlet Knights have struggled on the road in Big 10 play would be putting it mildly. They have lost five straight Big 10 road games and six of seven overall with the one win coming against Nebraska. Rutgers is now 1-9 in road or neutral site games for the 2019-20 season. They just lost by eight at Wisconsin on Sunday. While the Big 10 may be deep, some teams are simply better than others and that’s the case with Penn State here as the Nittany Lions are a legit top 20 team that plays really good defense. Back to back losses (to Indiana & Illinois) have taken some wind out of their sails, but you’re still looking at a team that’s 13-2 SU at home with a point differential of +14.8 per game. They began February on a 5-0 SU/ATS tear and should end the month with a big win here. Play on PENN STATE AAA |
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02-25-20 | Hornets v. Pacers -10.5 | Top | 80-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Both of these teams just got their tails kicked in. For Charlotte, it was Saturday when they lost at home to Brooklyn by 29 points, a real “bad look” considering the Nets are now without Kyrie Irving. Still, in terms of margin, the loss wasn’t as bad as what Indiana suffered Sunday in Toronto as they went down 127-81. One of the teams will get to bounce back from the embarrassing defeat Monday and our money is on the Pacers as not only are they playing at home, they are also simply the much better basketball team at this juncture. Even with three consecutive upsets straddling the All-Star Break, the Hornets are still only 4-14 straight up their past 18 games and when they lose it’s generally by a wide margin. The Hornets’ record in games decided by 10 points or more is a lousy 4-24 straight up. They are also just 2-19 vs. teams that have winning records while going 5-14-2 against the spread. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-25-20 | Iowa v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 70-78 | Push | 0 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN ST Yet another quality Big 10 matchup Tuesday and while it’s a battle of Top 25 teams, we actually think things will end up rather lopsided here in East Lansing. Despite a less than stellar February, Sparty remains an elite team, one that is far better than its #24 ranking. Make no mistake about it, there might not be more than 5-7 teams that would be favored over Michigan State come Tournament time. Tom Izzo’s bunch got the confidence-boosting win it needed last Thursday when they went to Nebraska and blew out the Cornhuskers 86-65. Now they host Iowa, who we have serious doubts about on the defensive end of the floor. Of all the teams currently ranked in the Top 25, the Hawkeyes have the worst efficiency rating defensively. We grabbed them laying a small number vs. Ohio State last Thursday. However, that was at home. They’ve gone just 1-16 straight up and 4-13 against the spread their past 17 visits to East Lansing and this number tells you to disregard the rankings. Iowa had lost three straight road games before a miracle comeback at Minnesota nine days ago. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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02-24-20 | Hawks v. 76ers -8 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA The Sixers are back home Monday and you should know what that means. It’s a virtual guarantee that they’ll play better than they did Saturday night in Milwaukee when they lost 119-98. That loss dropped Philly to 9-20 in road games. They are 26-2 at home. Throw in the fact that they go from facing the league’s best team to (maybe) its worst and it should be a complete “reversal of fortune” here. While the Hawks are 2-0 since returning from the All Star Break, each of those wins came at home. They have only six road wins all year and only one in the last 30 days. Philadelphia is playing with revenge tonight as well. They lost in Atlanta last month. (They also won there early in the season). The Sixers are an impressive +10.0 points/game compared to their opponents here at home. They are 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 220 or higher (total here is currently 229). Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-23-20 | Stanford v. Washington State +3.5 | Top | 75-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON ST Stanford stopped the bleeding with a 72-64 upset of Washington on Thursday. But that singular win doesn’t change the fact that the Cardinal had previously lost seven of eight, which obviously put a severe damper on their NCAA Tournament hopes. Tonight they are at Washington State, a matchup the Cardinal likely feels pretty good about. But this one is trickier than it looks. Yes, Wazzu has lost three in a row overall and was just beaten here in Pullman by Cal Thursday. The Cougs were 6.5-point favorites in that loss too. But they remain 11-4 at the Paloose. They’ve got some big time revenge for a 26 point defeat suffered in Palo Alto earlier in the year. Stanford shot 61% in that game, Washington State was under 40%. It’ll be a lot different this time as we conclude by pointing out that Wazzu is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this year as a home underdog of three points or less. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA |
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02-23-20 | Rutgers v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Whenever it’s time to analyze one of these Big 10 matchups, we start by pointing out the incredible depth in the conference. There could be as many as 11 teams making the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin and Rutgers are among them. Right now though the Badgers are simply hotter. They’ve won three in a row, taking advantage of a somewhat “relaxed” schedule for this time of year. Today marks just the fourth game for the Badgers in the past 14 days. They beat Purdue Tuesday, continuing a string of impressive showings here in Madison that has seen them defeat the likes of Maryland, Michigan State and Ohio State. Rutgers just suffered its first home loss of the season, at the hands of Michigan, and we look for that to have an effect on them today. The Scarlet Knights have lost four of six overall. They have just ONE road win all season. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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02-22-20 | Oregon +5 v. Arizona | Top | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON Crucial game in the Pac 12 tonight for both teams, but particularly for Oregon as they are off a loss and a game back of Arizona in the win column. The Ducks go to Tucson Saturday night with a higher ranking for now (#14 vs. #24), but they really can’t afford another loss here. Back on January 9th, the Ducks did beat Arizona 74-73 in a close call in Eugene. Arizona comes into the rematch as a decided favorite having won three straight. They seem overvalued though in what we view as a pretty even matchup. Oregon has been an underdog just three times all season and this is the first time in over a month. Let’s not forget that it wasn’t too long ago that Arizona lost - by double digits - here at home to UCLA. The Wildcats are just 9-21 ATS in Saturday games the last three seasons. This is one of those games where you just want to play the underdog as an outright win is far more likely than a blowout by the favorite. Play on OREGON AAA |
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02-22-20 | 76ers +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-119 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We all know about how the Sixers perform on the road relative to how they do at home. On Thursday, they defeated the Brooklyn Nets by a score of 112-104. That improved their already league-best home record to 26-2 straight up. However, they’ve gone just 9-19 straight up on the road and tonight finds them playing in Milwaukee. Despite this seemingly “insurmountable” task the 76ers are facing, we like them to come through with the cash tonight on ABC. Impressive as they have been, the Bucks cannot possibly continue to win by these large margins. What’s interesting is that they have played only 17 games all season against teams that have winning records (fewest in the league). They are 10-7 straight up in those games and 7-10 against the spread. They’ve lost only 1 time all year to a team with a losing record. A couple of weeks ago Philly came here and lost by 11. We think they’ll do better this time as this game means more to them than it does to the Bucks. They did beat the Bucks earlier in the year (at home). Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-22-20 | UCLA v. Colorado -10 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Colorado may not be the “best” team in the Pac 12 this year but they have been the most consistent. As a result, they are the ones in first place, not Arizona nor Oregon. The Buffaloes are ranked 18th in the country and just held off USC for a 70-66 win on Thursday. They get to stay in Boulder for the weekend as now it’s UCLA that will pay a visit. The Bruins have not been consistent in the first year under Mick Cronin and we like this opportunity to fade as they are coming off an upset win at Utah a little less than 48 hours ago. The chances UCLA records two straight upset wins on the road seems very unlikely, even though right now is the hottest that the Bruins have been all season. They’ve won four in a row, starting with a win at Arizona. But Colorado is just too tough here as they have a 13-2 SU home record and give up only 61.9 points/game. Motivation will be high as this is the final home game of the season (Senior Night!) and they actually lost at UCLA by 4 points back in January. Revenge will be sweet this afternoon. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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02-21-20 | Spurs v. Jazz -7 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH The Spurs were done a favor last night as Memphis lost, meaning San Antonio is now within 3.5 games of the 8th (and final) playoff spot out West. Utah has its eyes on a bigger prize as they went into the All Star Break 4th in the conference and on a 4-game win streak. The last three wins were against Houston, Dallas and Miami and the Jazz covered all three. This is a step down in class from those teams, all of which are solidly in the playoff mix. Two of the wins (Houston, Dallas) even came on the road. Speaking of the road, it has been unkind to San Antonio. The annual “Rodeo Road Trip” began on Feb 3rd and has seen the Spurs go 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS with the only straight up win coming at Oklahoma City right before the break. Utah has a big edge defensively in this matchup as they give up only 104.1 points/game at home while SA allows 116.4 on the road. Utah is 20-5 at home while SA is 9-19 on the road. This is the Spurs first visit to Salt Lake City this season and the Jazz have revenge for losing as a five-point favorite in the Alamo last month. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-20-20 | Grizzlies v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 125-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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02-20-20 | Ohio State v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Iowa We had some discussion about the Big 10 yesterday. While we came out on the wrong side of that game (Indiana-Minnesota), we’re back at it again, this time with two of the likely 10 teams that the conference will send to the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State was once ranked as high as #2 in the polls. A bad January dropped the Buckeyes standing precipitously, however, they have since rallied by winning five of their last six games. Iowa has alternated wins and losses over the last six games and is off a come from behind win at Minnesota. While recent form may be better for OSU, this game still takes place in Iowa City where the Hawkeyes have lost only one time all year and that was back in the second game. Iowa boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the country and Ohio State is only .500 overall in Big 10 play and 3-5 on the road. The Hawkeyes are 10-2 ATS at Carver Arena. Seems logical to lay the short number here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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02-19-20 | Indiana v. Minnesota -5.5 | Top | 68-56 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Big 10 will obviously be sending a lot of teams to the NCAA Tournament. Right now, if certain “bracketologists” are to be believed, the number of teams is 10. Only one other conference is likely to send more than five. Interestingly enough, neither Indiana nor Minnesota are among those 10 even though both grade out favorably against most teams from other conferences. In the case of Minnesota, a 12-12 WL record does them no favors. However, you can’t tell us that the Golden Gophers aren’t among the top 35 teams in the country. Four losses in the last five games, particularly the one vs. Iowa on Sunday, have really stung. But getting a chance to host an Indiana team that is 1-5 straight up and against the spread its last six games is an opportunity the Gophers can surely cash in on. Indiana is a dreadful 1-6 ATS in road games. They’ve lost 23 of 30 road games the last three seasons. The loss to Iowa on Sunday was just the second time Minnesota lost as a favorite this year (8-3 ATS) and they are 5-1 ATS after being held under 60 points. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |