Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-19-20 | Tulane v. Tulsa -6 | Top | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 35 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA Tulane will arrive in Tulsa Thursday night on a 3-game SU win streak and a 5-game ATS win streak. But the teams they’ve been beating aren’t very good. Tulsa is now ranked #25 in the country, ending a decade-long absence from the polls. Their only loss this season was to Oklahoma State and they led that game going into the fourth quarter. They’ve since won four in a row including an upset of UCF. So we’ve got two hot teams from the American on the field Thursday night. We side with the Golden Hurricane as they are at home and have a defense that can stop the run. That latter part is huge when facing Tulane, who is 4-1 when rushing for 200+ yards this season. But Tulsa has yet to give up more than 151 yards rushing to any opponent. This is also a triple revenge spot for the Golden Hurricane, who has lost to Tulane three straight years. But none of those Tulsa teams won more than four games. This one is 4-1 SU. Tulane is 2-5 ATS the last seven times as a road underdog. One of those two covers was earlier this year (at UCF) as a 21-point dog (lost by 17). Tulsa has already beaten two teams (UCF, Houston) that beat Tulane by 17+. Play on TULSA AAA |
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11-17-20 | Akron v. Kent State -25 | Top | 35-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENT STATE Akron did play better than expected last week.They “only” lost by 14 to Ohio U. That a two-touchdown loss could be spun as a “success” (Zips easily covered the 27-point spread) should be a clear indication that this team is not good. They are probably one of the worst teams in the entire country. The loss to Ohio last Tuesday was their 19th straight, a streak which goes back to 2018. They were 0-12 SU a season ago. The Zips have failed to score more than 17 points in any of the last nine games. Such offensive (and overall) ineptitude is going to be a major problem facing rival Kent State this week.The Golden Flashes went just 2-10 SU in 2018. But unlike Akron, this program has turned things around. After winning five straight at the end of last year (including bowl), it’s a 2-0 start to 2020 that has seen the Flashes offense average 254 yards rushing and 295 yards passing! They put up 62 points last week on Bowling Green, a comparable team to Akron, and that was on the road. Akron’s defense has given up over 400 yards rushing in its two games.Last year, the Kent State defense held the Zips to three points in a 23-point win. This year’s matchup figures to be even more lopsided. It’s a team that’s 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS hosting a team that’s 0-19 SU/4-15 ATS its L19. A complete mismatch here. Play on KENT STATE AAA |
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11-16-20 | Vikings -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 164 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA The Vikings have a real shot at erasing a poor 1-5 start to the season. They’re now 3-5 following wins over the Packers and Lions and after this week, they SHOULD be favored to win three consecutive home games (Dallas, Carolina, Jacksonville). The Bears are headed in the opposite direction as they were once 5-1, but have now lost three in a row. They have averaged just 16.7 points during the losing skid while the defense has given up 24.7. No longer can the defense carry this miserable offense in Chicago. Mitchell Trubisky wasn’t the answer at QB and Nick Foles isn’t either. There aren’t any other options right now. The big storyline for this game will be Kirk Cousins’ 0-9 record on Monday Night Football, but he’s better than what the Bears have at QB. Plus, Cousins has the luxury handing the ball off to Dalvin Cook, who has run for 369 yards the last two weeks with five touchdowns. The Bears rushing attack averages just 82 yards/game and they are 31st in third down success rate. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS L6 games and 40-22-1 ATS as favorites under Mike Zimmer. They continue their march back to .500. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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11-15-20 | Ravens -7 v. Patriots | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 132 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE New England picked up an U-G-L-Y win Monday night against the Jets. The fact that they were trailing the Jets - by double digits - going into the 4th quarter should tell you all you need to know about the current state of the Patriots. Now on a short week they must turn around and play host to Baltimore, a team at the opposite end of the league’s spectrum. A 24-10 win over the Colts last week was hardly the Ravens “finest hour,” but they really dominated the second half which saw the defense pitch a shutout. That made it a 10-game road winning streak in which Lamar Jackson and the offense have averaged a very impressive 32.3 points/game. Remember that the Ravens destroyed a much better Patriots team around this time last season, 37-20. At the time, the Patriots were 8-0. Since then they’ve gone just 7-11 straight up. Their vaunted record as a home underdog is no longer really that applicable now that Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay. Baltimore has scored at least 20 points in 31 straight games and forced a turnover in 21 straight games. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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11-15-20 | Seahawks +2 v. Rams | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -102 | 128 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SEATTLE Seattle suffered its second loss of the season last week, 44-34 at the hands of Buffalo. That result surprised us as did the fact Bills QB Josh Allen threw for more than 400 yards against the Seahawks defense. Now it's not as if we were under the impression the Seahawks defense is one of the league’s best (far from it), but still it was jarring to see them give up 44 points. Now they face the Rams, who are off a bye, in a very important NFC West matchup. Look for Russell Wilson to lead the bounce back. Since Wilson was drafted, Seattle is 23-10-2 ATS as an underdog, the best such record in the league during that time. The last time the Seahawks were getting points was … last season. The Rams’ defense is second in the league in points allowed, but they’ve faced a slew of poor offenses. When they faced Buffalo, they gave up 35 points and were down big in the 1st half. The Seahawks offense leads the league in scoring at 34.3 points/game. The Rams are 5-3, but that includes 4-0 against the terrible NFC East. Take that away and their only win was against a Chicago team whose offensive capabilities couldn’t be further from Seattle’s. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Buffalo picked up a big win last week. They beat Seattle 44-34 to move to 7-2 on the year. But that was at home. They are just 1-4 ATS L5 road games and hadn’t covered in four straight overall before last week’s upset of the Seahawks. Arizona is off a loss to Buffalo’s AFC East rival Miami, dropping them to 1-5 ATS as a home favorite since 2018. But the Cardinals are a good team and we don’t see them losing two in a row on their home field. Remember that they are the only other team (besides Buffalo) to defeat Seattle this year. Kyler Murray is putting up some really impressive numbers and the offense posted more total yards than Miami last week (442 to 312) despite losing last week. It was a three-point loss where the Dolphins scored a defensive TD. The Bills were able to beat the Seahawks largely because of a +4 turnover differential. They really don’t have the statistical profile of a typical 7-2 team. Besides two wins over the Jets, they have three wins by a field goal and another by a touchdown. They were dominated by two of the AFC’s better teams, Tennessee and Kansas City. This number is too short. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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11-15-20 | Texans v. Browns -3 | Top | 7-10 | Push | 0 | 124 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND This seems to be a bit of a curious line as Houston is getting a lot of respect despite being 2-6 straight up and 1-7 against the spread. Both Texans wins have come against Jacksonville, the second one last week by a score of 27-25. Cleveland was off last week (bye) and has failed to cover three in a row themselves. But the Browns are in a much better spot than the Texans right now, 5-3 and in the playoff hunt for the first time in over a decade. They get RB Nick Chubb back this week, which is a big deal. When Chubb got hurt, the Browns were leading the NFL in rushing yards -- averaging more than 200 per game. They’ve since “slipped” a bit (to 5th) but with Chubb back in the fold should find little resistance against a terrible Houston defense that gives up the most rushing yards per game in the league. The Texans haven’t covered a single road game this year (0-4 ATS) nor have they covered a single time as an underdog (0-5). There were COVID-19 concerns midweek for the Browns, but those all seem to be in the rear view mirror now. This is a game they HAVE to win if they want to end the league’s longest playoff drought. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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11-14-20 | Wisconsin -4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 49-11 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Michigan has not played well as an underdog for Jim Harbaugh. They have lost all 10 games where they have been getting points and covered only twice. This will be the first time under Harbaugh that they’ve been a home dog to anyone besides Ohio State. It’s against a Wisconsin team that’s been forced to cancel its last two games because of COVID. While that is certainly a distraction no team wants to have to deal with, the Badgers were projected to be a Top 5 (ish) team (in the country) this season and were 45-7 winners (against Illinois) in the one game they did play. The Badgers could have QB Graham Mertz on the field this Saturday in Ann Arbor. Regardless whether or not he suits up, look for Wisconsin to take advantage of a terrible Wolverines secondary that has been picked apart in losses to Michigan State and Indiana. Michigan has missed covering the spread by a combined 45 points the last two weeks. They look to be vastly overrated and Harbaugh’s future is now very much in doubt. The team just isn’t very good. Wisconsin has won four of the last six against Michigan. Not only were they favored in all four wins, those four wins were all by double digits. While it was two weeks ago, the Badgers are 4-0 ATS the L4 times they’ve been off a 40+ point game. They’ve also covered 13 of 17 as road favorites. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-14-20 | Oregon -10 v. Washington State | Top | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 69 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON You could pick apart Oregon’s 35-14 win over Stanford win last Saturday. The Cardinal didn’t have their starting QB or top receiver and still moved the ball pretty well. Had their kicker not missed FOUR field goals, it’s obviously a much closer game. But be careful about discounting what the Ducks did. Their offense, in the first game without Justin Herbert, gained almost 500 yards. Washington State’s defense isn’t good so we’re expecting plenty of points and yards from Oregon yet again this week. The big story (from a betting perspective) is that the Ducks are 0-10 ATS the L10 meetings with Wazzu. That is quite the crazy streak. Oregon did snap a 4-game SU losing streak to Wazzu with a 37-35 win in Eugene last year. Now it’s time for the ATS streak to end. We know lots of people are falling in love with last week’s performance by the Cougars new starting QB, Jayden de Laura. But remember that it came against Oregon State. You have to go back to the WSU defense, which gave up a lot of yards (451) and should be picked apart by Tyler Shough and the Ducks offense. Washington State is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been off a SU win. Play on OREGON AAA |
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11-14-20 | Northwestern v. Purdue +3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PURDUE Northwestern is 3-0 but has been pretty lucky to win each of the last two weeks. They trailed Iowa 17-0 before coming back, thanks to three Hawkeyes’ turnovers. They gained just 273 yards in that 21-20 victory. Then the Wildcats were -125 in total yards to Nebraska in a 21-13 win last week where again turnovers were the story. The Cornhuskers gave it away twice in the second half, both times deep inside Northwestern territory. In three games, Northwestern has forced nine turnovers. They probably can’t count on that saving them every week. Nebraska was in the red zone EIGHT times last week, yet came away with only 13 points. This week they go to Purdue to face a Boilermakers team that is also unbeaten (2-0). Purdue had an unexpected bye last Saturday as they were supposed to face Wisconsin, but that game was cancelled due to the Badgers’ COVID outbreak. The Boilermakers have looked good on offense even without All-American WR Rondale Moore. David Bell has 22 catches for 243 yards so far and Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald called HIM “the best receiver in the country.” The Wildcats are just 2-8-2 ATS the L12 times they’ve been favored. Purdue is on a 19-7 ATS run as underdogs. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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11-14-20 | Colorado v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD UPDATE: The following writeup was completed BEFORE the Pac 12 was forced to apologize to Stanford for the inconclusive testing that resulted in last week's COVID-related absences. All of those Cardinal players are now available for Saturday and we're liking this play even more! COVID issues and an opening week loss to Oregon will have many doubting Stanford this week, but not us. The Cardinal will be hosting a Colorado team that is off a 48-42 win over UCLA last Saturday. The Buffaloes were up big in that win (by 28 points), but had to hold off a furious second half rally by the Bruins. The biggest contributing factor to the win was a +4 turnover margin. The defense still gave up 7.0 yards per rush attempt and almost 500 total yards. Stanford should be able to move the ball here, even if it has to go with a backup QB again. Not having starter Davis Mills (COVID) versus a team as good as Oregon was a really tough blow for the Cardinal last week But they still gained over 400 yards with backup Jack West. The problem was that their kicker missed FOUR field goals! If called back into duty, West can again lean on RB Austin Jones, who just had a 100+ yard day against a defense that’s much better than the one he’ll face this week. Speaking of field goal issues, Colorado’s kicker just retired! The Buffs are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and they were the underdog in all four. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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11-14-20 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette -15.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 64 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOUISIANA The last two weeks have seen South Alabama fall short against Ga Southern and Coastal Carolina - by scores of 24-17 and 23-6. Now they have to play a third consecutive road game against who we still consider to be the top team in the Sun Belt, Louisiana. The Jaguars have just one road win in their last 16 tries and are 2-23 SU its L25 games as an underdog. While the Ragin Cajuns also lost to Coastal Carolina this year, they would probably still be favored in a rematch. They can potentially earn that rematch by winning Saturday as that would clinch the Sun Belt’s Western Division. (Coastal Carolina leads the East). Coastal Carolina is Louisiana’s only loss of 2020. The Ragin Cajuns have beaten Iowa State and since the CC loss are 3-0 and averaging 446.7 yards of offense. The defense is in the Top 20 in the country in passing yards allowed. Louisiana has beaten S Alabama four years in a row and was actually favored by 27.5 on the ROAD last season. While they didn’t cover the spot, this number is far more manageable and they’re at home this time. While all of Louisiana’s conference games so far have been decided by 10 points or less, they’ve been facing some of the better teams. This is their easiest game to date. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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11-13-20 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -27.5 | Top | 17-55 | Win | 100 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is one of seven teams in the country that’s 6-0 or better. Other than Notre Dame and Alabama, some of the names on that list might surprise you. But the Bearcats are no joke. This is a legit top 10 team in the country right now that has absolutely been destroying its opponents. They’ve averaged 43 points the previous three games and that was against SMU, Memphis and Houston, three of the better teams in the American Athletic Conference. The defense is allowing just 11.7 points/game for the season and hasn’t given up more than 13 since allowing a season-high 20 in the opener vs. Austin Peay. While laying this many points presents a bit of a challenge, we just can’t see Cincy having any difficulty with a 1-5 East Carolina team that’s giving up 37.3 points/game. The Pirates ran for only 35 yards on 29 attempts in a 38-21 loss to Tulane last week, which was at home. They shouldn’t expect to be able to run the ball here either as the Bearcats’ defense is 10th best in the country at stopping the run. This should be a very easy win for the favorite. Lay it! Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WESTERN MICHIGAN These are probably the best two teams in the MAC’s West Division and if one thing is for certain, it’s that this game is going to be a lot tougher than it was for either side in Week 1. Behind 310 yards rushing, Toledo smoked Bowling Green 38-3 last week. Western Michigan was just as unkind to Akron in a 58-13 blowout. We’ve got some concerns about Toledo though as the Rockets lost all 4 MAC road games last year and did so by an average of 28 points/game. Furthermore, their only two wins in the last six games of 2019 were by a total of five points and came about as a result of the opponents missing on a field goal & two-point conversion. Western Michigan was arguably as talented as any MAC team in 2019 and won all six of its home games. Five of those six wins were by double digits. With this game taking place in Kalamazoo, that’s an edge for the slightly favored Broncos. Also, having lost to Toledo three straight years, this is a big revenge game. We liked what we saw from WMU quarterback Eleby last week and the backs and receivers looked great as well. Toledo QB Peters has some accuracy issues, so be on the lookout for that. Both of these teams are off blowout wins, but the home team is more likely to keep it rolling. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan +9.5 v. Ball State | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EASTERN MICHIGAN You had both Eastern Michigan coming out on the wrong end of close games last week. They both blew second half leads, so you’ll have two teams ready to go Wednesday. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 at Kent State and now hits the road for a second straight week to face a Ball State team that lost 38-31 at Miami, Ohio. Ball State won this matchup last season, but by just points, and before that it had been Eastern Michigan prevailing three straight years. This just looks like too many points in a pretty even matchup. Eastern Michigan is 21-6-1 ATS its last 28 games as a road underdog. So this is a spot they usually do well in. They covered the 5.5-point number last week at Kent State. Ball State did not cover against Miami as they were only 1-point underdogs. If you think that playing at home might help the Cardinals here, know that they are just 12-25 ATS their last 37 games here. Eastern Michigan has pulled 12 outright upsets the last four seasons and that actually includes three against Power 5 teams. Knowing that, a simple cover in this matchup doesn’t seem too challenging. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Both Miami and Buffalo opened 2020 by winning. But both might feel a little fortunate to prevail by the margins that they did. Buffalo’s 49-30 win over Northern Illinois was a byproduct of five Huskies turnovers more than anything else, but at least they still won by 19 points. Miami was only a 38-31 winner over Ball State and had to come back from a double digit deficit (21-10) to do so. Now we had the RedHawks so that comeback made us quite happy. But we recognize a shaky start when we see one. Though they came back and won last week, losing starting QB Brett Gabbert wasn’t ideal. (As of press time, it’s unclear whether Gabbert will return this week). Buffalo might be the best team in the MAC this year. They were picked by many to win the conference last year, but a loss to Miami played a significant role in the Redhawks going on to capture the crown. The Bulls had 133 more yards than the Redhawks in last year’s game and the defense allowed just 2.6 yards per rush attempt. Being -4 in turnovers is what cost them. Buffalo’s defense was tops in scoring among MAC teams in 2019 and seven starters are back from that group. They scored THREE touchdowns last week and will be the difference in this revenge spot. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-08-20 | Dolphins v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Two of the league’s surprises meet here as 4-3 Miami goes to 5-2 Arizona. Off their bye, the Dolphins beat the Rams last week 28-17. It was a nice win, but one that saw very little offense. With Tua Tagovailoa starting for the first time, the Dolphins offense gained just 145 total yards. They beat the Rams because they had a defensive touchdown, a punt return for touchdown and forced four turnovers, one of which led to a drive that started goal to go. It was the Rams that gained 471 yards. So Miami was outgained more than 3:1 and still won. The offense will have to be better this week against an Arizona team off its bye. Last we saw Kyler Murray, he was leading his team to an upset of Seattle two weeks ago. The Cardinals are the only team to beat the Seahawks. The offense has scored at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. The defense ranks Top 10 against the pass, so look for Tua to have another rough day. The Dolphins have been favored in just one game all year, so its a real surprise they have a winning record. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Bills | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -116 | 122 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE (money line) This looks to be a good game on paper with the 6-1 Seahawks taking on the 6-2 Bills. But even though both lead their respective divisions, we feel one side is clearly better than the other. Buffalo has actually been pretty mediocre in spite of its good record. They were a bit lucky to get by the Patriots last week as a 24-21 win needed a late Cam Newton fumble. It was the Bills’ 5th win by one score this season. Seattle, it could be argued, is in discussion for the league’s best team. They’re only loss this year came in overtime. They too have some close wins, but they’ve also scored at least 31 points in all but one game. Russell Wilson is on pace for what would be a record-setting season of 4900 yards passing and 600 yards rushing. His two leading receivers - Metcalf and Lockett - both already have 500+ yards and seven touchdowns! The defense has its issues, but Jamal Adams is set to come back. Buffalo has failed to cover four in a row. Seattle is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games with a spread of three points or less. Plus they are 11-4-1 ATS L16 on the road. They will win this game. Play on SEATTLE (MONEYLINE) AAA |
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11-08-20 | Texans -6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston has just one win in 2020. It was against Jacksonville. That’s who the Texans face again this week. This time the Jaguars will be starting a rookie quarterback named Jake Luton, a sixth round choice out of Oregon State. The Jags have lost their last six games and haven’t covered the spread in any of the last five. This is one of the worst teams in the league. Houston hasn’t played well and has the same 1-6 SU record as well as being 1-6 against the spread. But they have more talent than Jacksonville. Who would you rather have - Luton or DeShaun Watson? Watson is undefeated in five career starts vs. the Jaguars. It was 30-14 earlier this year as the Texans offense put up a season-most 487 yards. The Jaguars are 28th in rushing yards allowed. They’ve also given up 30 or more points in six straight games. The Texans are 11-2 L13 vs. Jacksonville and 16-4 L20. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina -18 | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -109 | 106 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina is 6-0 and we had them last week when they absolutely bludgeoned Georgia State 51-0. QB Grayson McCall returned (from an injury) and threw for four touchdowns and ran for another. The Chanticleers are now the #15 ranked team in the country. After being a short favorite each of the last two weeks, they turn around to host a South Alabama team that simply isn’t on the same level. The Jaguars started their campaign with an upset of Southern Miss on the road. But the only road game they’ve played since was a 24-17 loss at Georgia Southern last Thursday. The win against Southern Miss, not a good team by the way, is the Jaguars only road win in their last 15 tries. Let’s not forget they are 2-22 SU the last 24 games as an underdog. Coastal Carolina has covered every game but one this year. They’ve won five straight against the Sun Belt and already beaten some of the conference’s best this year. Certainly, they should have little difficulty winning Saturday. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-07-20 | Florida +3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 102 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA We’ve got a showdown in the SEC East this weekend with Florida taking on Georgia in what we can safely say will NOT be a “Cocktail Party.” Florida lost earlier this year to Texas A&M, but losing by three on the road to that opponent shouldn’t be considered bad at all. It was considered “bad” at the time, only because Florida was favored and in hindsight they should not have been. (A&M was off a bad loss to Alabama and hadn’t really looked good). But after a two-week hiatus (COVID), the Gators responded with a 41-17 thumping of Mizzou last week. Now they are underdogs for the 1st time. Their offense has been fantastic so far, scoring at least 38 in every game. QB Trask has at least 4 TD passes in every game as well. Remember that Georgia’s defense gave up 41 to Alabama and is now banged up minus star safety LeCounte and DL Rochester. Georgia’s QB Stetson Bennett has not looked all that impressive. Give us the better offensive team taking points. The Dawgs have scored just 38 points total the last two games. Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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11-07-20 | Texas Tech v. TCU -8 | Top | 18-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TCU TCU got their act together in a 33-23 win against Baylor last Saturday. Now they return to Fort Worth to play a Texas Tech that hasn’t really been able to get it together all season. The Red Raiders just gave up 62 points in a loss to Oklahoma last week. It was their second time losing while giving up 60+ this season. Their only Big 12 win was against West Virginia, a game where they got outgained by nearly 100 yards. But a late defensive TD put them over the top there. The only other win this season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then they allowed 600 yards and had to fend off a late 2-point try. TCU is 2-0 on the road, but 0-3 at home. It's just a matter of time until they rectify that discrepancy. The Horned Frogs were up 30-0 last week on Baylor. Meanwhile, Texas Tech gave up 48 in the first half to Oklahoma. These are teams going in opposite directions. The Red Raiders are 2-8 ATS L10 road games. Play on TCU AAA |
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11-07-20 | Liberty +15 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY You may not know it, but Liberty has one of the best records in the country. The 25th ranked Flames are 5-0, though they haven’t really beaten anyone of substance. The expectation this week is clearly that they’ll suffer their first loss. But might the oddsmakers be writing them off too much? We think so. While this is the first time since 2002 that a team at 5-0 or better has been a double digit dog to a team with two or more losses, that last instance saw the underdog (Notre Dame) pull an outright upset. Liberty averages 40 points/game, so it’s going to be hard for Virginia Tech to score enough to cover the number in this one. Sure, the Hokies will probably hold the Flames under their season scoring average, but they are still going to have to score a lot of points. Liberty is going to put up a fair number here as Va Tech has allowed at least 31 points in half of its games. The Hokies gave up almost 550 total yards last week to Louisville. They allowed well over 600 to North Carolina. Liberty may not be UNC but they are good enough to cover the spot. Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia v. Texas -6.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas was overrated at the start of the season, but now we’re getting a pretty good value on the Longhorns as they prepare to host West Virginia this Saturday. The ‘Horns have lost twice but easily could have won both of those games. The Oklahoma game went to four overtimes while the TCU game saw UT fumble at the goal line. Now UT has won twice in overtime so far, including last week’s 41-34 upset of Oklahoma State. But we don’t think you can trust a WVU side that has lost both of its road games thus far. The Mountaineers are off their best win so far, 37-10 over Kansas State, but the Wildcats were playing with a backup QB. Texas went to Morgantown last year and won easily, 42-31. Based on that, you’d think they should easily win in Austin. QB Sam Ehlinger hasn’t played as well as some would hope, but the Longhorns offense still averages 44.3 points/game, which is 10th best in the entire country right now. WVU just isn’t very good on the road and getting this number on the “right side” of 7 seems ideal. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +3 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -105 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOISE STATE Undefeated BYU (7-0) is set for its toughest test of 2020 when they hit the blue turf in Boise Friday night. Boise State is also undefeated, although just 2-0 (both straight up and against the spread). BYU is 6-1 ATS but it’s really important to look at who they’ve played. Other than Houston, most of the opponents can be found near the bottom of the FBS power rankings. They have been a two touchdown favorite (or more) in five games and a 24 (or more) point favorite in four games. The last two weeks they were favored by 29 and 30.5 points at home vs. Texas State and Western Kentucky. Boise State is the best team they will play all season. The Broncos are not used to being home underdogs. This is only the second time it’s happened in the regular season in the last 15 years. The other time was two years ago vs. Fresno State and they won that game outright, 24-17, getting 2.5 points. Not only is this a chance for Boise State to knock off a 7-0 team, it’s a revenge spot too. BYU gave them their only regular season loss last year 28-25 in Provo. The Cougars are 0-5 all-time here in Boise though. Play on BOISE STATE AAA |
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11-05-20 | Packers -4 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY This is a significant revenge game on the Green Bay side. They lost twice to San Francisco last season. Neither game was really competitive either with final scores of 37-8 and 37-20. But it will be a much different 49ers team they face Thursday night. It won’t at all resemble the 2019 version. Really, it’s going to be quite the “skeleton crew.” Not only are there injuries to QB Garoppolo and TE Kittle, but the team is now dealing with a COVID outbreak that claimed the likes of WR Aiyuk (who had been playing well) and OL Trent Williams. The 49ers just don’t have much to offer here on a short week. The Packers won’t have much sympathy though. Coming out of a 28-22 loss to the Vikings last week, they know they can’t afford to lose this game. Wouldn’t you know the Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS off their previous six losses. We took them in this exact spot against Houston two weeks ago, a game they won 35-20. They may be thin at running back, but Aaron Rodgers is still taking snaps and this offense put up 400+ yards in a loss last week. Don’t see Green Bay losing for a third time in four weeks as a favorite. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -15.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEVADA Nevada should run wild in this Thursday night matchup. They are 2-0 and up against a Utah State team that hasn’t been able to stop anyone so far. The winless Aggies are allowing 40 points/game. Nevada has scored 37 points in both of its wins. The Wolf Pack defense should also get a chance to “show off” Thursday as the Utah State offense has only been able to manage 20 points in two games. Nevada is a team that has been able to cover six of its last seven games (going back to last season) including both so far in 2020. They are led by QB Strong who is completing 75% of his passes with zero interceptions. He has 770 yards passing in two games. Last week vs. UNLV, Strong and this Nevada offense gained 9.2 yards/play! The Wolf Pack have revenge for a 36-10 loss on the road to Utah State last season. That was a much stronger Utah State team, however. This year should be a Nevada blowout. Utah State is only 7-19 ATS its last 26 times as an underdog. Play on NEVADA AAA |
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11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -2 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH In case you forgot, Miami won the MAC last year. They are on a 23-8 SU run in conference play and have won eight in a row at home, which is where they open the season. The RedHawks had a lead in every game in 2019 and will return a bulk of the players from that team. The season opens with Ball State visiting Oxford and Miami certainly remembers how it lost to the Cardinals in last year’s regular season finale. With the MAC East already clinched, they led 27-14 at halftime and decided to pull starters. From that point on, Ball State had a 17-1 edge in first downs and won 41-27. Ball State had plenty of offense last year, but also gave up 31.4 points/game. They did not have a good record in close games (while Miami did). Still, even if you think that was a case of “bad luck,” this line seems short given the offensive talent Miami returns. They are 8-2 ATS the L10 home games and 14-4 ATS L18 conference games. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA |
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11-04-20 | Western Michigan v. Akron +18 | Top | 58-13 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AKRON Since going 13-1 in 2016 under PJ Fleck, Western Michigan has lost six games each of its three seasons under Tim Lester. The team was probably better than 7-6 a season ago, but the Broncos probably shouldn't be expected to win big Wednesday even though the opponent is Akron. The Zips did not win a single game in 2019 (0-12) under Tim Arth, but should be a lot more competitive this year. They are certainly more experienced. Kato Nelson is a good QB with a solid receiving corps to throw to. The defense has 11 of its top 16 tacklers back. Western Michigan is breaking in a new starting QB and RB. This most unusual offseason and the fact they open on the road have us believing the Broncos may struggle more than expected in this one. They are just 1-7 ATS their last eight road games and 1-5 ATS their last six times as a road favorite. Play on AKRON AAA |
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11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 7* on SEA Seattle lost last week, the first time all season that’s happened, but it took overtime. We don’t think this line should have dropped as far as it has, based on one loss. The Seahawks offense is still as good as any in the league. They’ll be facing a good 49ers defense here. But the issue for the Niners is their offense, which just won’t be able to keep up. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t Kyler Murray, the quarterback that beat Seattle last week. The Seahawks defense is most susceptible to the pass, but we don’t see Garoppolo and the Niners taking full advantage of that. Despite the third shortest average pass distance, “Jimmy G” has the fifth highest interception rate since the start of last year. Making that many mistakes while playing it conservative is pretty rare. This is a home game for Seattle. They are 31-8 straight up the week after a loss and have covered 13 of the last 17 games with San Francisco. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-01-20 | Chargers -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAC The Chargers didn’t win any division games last year. They appeared well on their way to winning one earlier this year when they led the Chiefs by 11 in the second half of Week 2. But they lost that game in overtime. Close losses have haunted this franchise in recent years but the Bolts left nothing to chance last week when they defeated Jacksonville 39-29. While just their second win of the season, we think it’s the start of what looks to be a favorable stretch for the team. They are 4-1-1 ATS and this week are in Denver to face a Broncos team that has scored more than 21 points in only one game all year and that was vs. the Jets. Justin Herbert may be a rookie, but he’s already surpassed Denver’s Drew Lock, who has the league’s third worst QBR over the past two weeks. Since the start of 2017, LA is 7-2-1 ATS as an away favorite. The Broncos lost by 27 last week and while that was to the Chiefs, they are now 0-3 at home with two of those losses by 18 or more. They also have the league’s second worst turnover differential, so be on the look out for that. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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11-01-20 | Titans -5.5 v. Bengals | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -109 | 123 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEN Tennessee is off its first loss of the season, but it came by just three points (27-24) to a team that also came into last week unbeaten (Pittsburgh). The Titans are 16-7-2 ATS the past 25 times they’ve been off a loss. Our expectation here is they are going to put up a lot of points on a Cincinnati team that always seems to be close, but can’t get over the hump. The Bengals’ record is 1-5-1 after a 37-34 home loss to Cleveland last week where they gave up the game winning touchdown late. It was their fourth loss by five points or fewer this season. While the Bengals are 5-1 ATS the last 6 weeks (only loss to Baltimore), one of the league’s worst defenses is really going to struggle to contain Ryan Tannehill and a very good Titans offense that is averaging 36 points/game over the last three weeks. The Cincinnati offensive line does not do a good job at protecting rookie Joe Burrow and he figures to be running for his life in this one. The Bengals have allowed the most sacks in the league while the Titans lead in takeaways. The Bengals defense is now worse after trading its best pass rusher, Carlos Dunlap. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-31-20 | LSU -2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 11-48 | Loss | -118 | 101 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU LSU is still being penalized for its two early season losses. The defensive showings vs. Mississippi State and Missouri were definitely both bad, but let’s not forget the extenuating circumstances of that game vs. Mizzou, which was moved from Baton Rouge to Columbia because of the hurricane. Even without starting QB Myles Brennan, the Tigers looked great last week in demolishing South Carolina 52-24. That performance was closer to what you should expect from the Tigers as opposed to those two losses. LSU definitely can score no matter who the QB is. Freshman TJ Finley looked great last week, so if he’s called on again, we expect him to answer the bell. The Tigers are averaging 42.0 points/game and have scored at least 41 each of the last three games. Auburn has not been impressive so far as they are lucky to even be 3-2. They could have easily lost games vs. Arkansas and Ole Miss and have been outgained on the season. QB Bo Nix is inconsistent and will be facing a defense that has already forced 10 turnovers in four games. Auburn has zero turnovers in its three wins, but we are expecting them to give it away multiple times here. Play on LSU AAA |
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10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina -2.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 51-0 | Win | 100 | 97 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CC #20 Coastal Carolina stayed unbeaten last week with a 28-14 win over Georgia Southern. The defense certainly did its job in shutting the Eagles out in the second half while holding them to just 218 total yards for the game. The Chanticleers won despite not having QB Grayson McCall. You’ll want to note that his backup, Fred Payton, threw three touchdown passes last week. That’s really not too surprising as Payton has started 10 games over the previous two seasons. Coach Jamey Chadwell is “cautiously optimistic” that McCall will return this week, but either way we’re in on the Chanticleers to get the victory over Georgia State. The Panthers have lost 7 of 10 to teams with winning records and already have suffered close losses to Louisiana and Arkansas State this season. They were also outgained 447-379 by Troy last week in a 36-34 win. The defense has given up nearly 1,000 passing yards its last two games! The offense is missing a starting receiver. Georgia State has never beaten a ranked team before while CC has won 5 of its last 6 games where the line is three points or less. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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10-31-20 | Temple +4.5 v. Tulane | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEMPLE Tulane is just 2-4 thus far so we don’t think they are a very strong candidate to be laying points right now. They have blown big leads in two of those losses, to Navy and Houston, but also had a big rally of their own to defeat South Alabama. Half of their games have been decided by a field goal. They’ve also lost three in a row, two of those coming by at least 17 points. The defense is giving up a lot of points, 35.3 per game to be exact, so Temple should be able to score enough to stay within the number this week. Now the Owls could easily be 0-3 if not for their own rally vs. South Florida. But they only lost by two at Navy and then were more competitive than the scoreboard showed vs. Memphis last week. They had the yardage edge and more first downs. They actually gained 500 yards for the game. The problem was they turned the ball over four times. We mentioned the Tulane defense is giving up a lot of points. Well, they are also giving up lots of yards. Over the last three games, they’ve allowed 1,746 total yards! They gave up 689 to UCF last week. This is a game where you’ll want to take the points. Play on TEMPLE AAA |
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10-31-20 | Purdue -6.5 v. Illinois | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PURDUE Purdue opened its season with a bit of an upset. They beat Iowa 24-20 as a 3.5-point home dog, scoring a late TD to get the win. Consider that they were without their best player (WR Rondale Moore) and head coach Jeff Brohm due to COVID-19. While it remains unclear if Moore is going to be back this week, Brohm is planning on being back on the sidelines. The Boilermakers certainly have enough pieces to dominate lowly Illinois, who lost 45-7 to Wisconsin last week. The only Illini touchdown came from the defense and now they go up against a team that allowed just three points in the second half last week. This is also a revenge game for Purdue as they shockingly lost to Illinois, 24-6, last season. They haven’t beaten the Boilermakers back to back years since 2001-02. Not only was the offense non-existent for the Illini last week, the defense was also bad. They forced just one incompletion on 21 attempts! Play on PURDUE AAA |
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10-30-20 | Hawaii -1.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -109 | 83 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HAWAII It feels good to have LATE night action during the week, thanks to the Mountain West getting its season underway. Hawaii will be looking to start 2-0 while Wyoming is hoping to avoid 0-2. Hawaii won 34-19 last week over Fresno State, really running over the Bulldogs defense. Not only did they run for over six yards per carry, but the Warriors finished the game with 323 yards rushing and 552 yards total! Stopping the run wasn’t an issue for the Wyoming defense last week, but it did allow 420 yards passing as it fell 37-34 in overtime at Nevada, a game they closed as 2.5-point favorites. It is important to note that the Cowboys only lead in that game came in overtime when they kicked a field goal after the first possession. They quickly gave up the game-winning touchdown not long after. At one point, Wyoming was down as much as 22 points. But the big news coming out of the game was the leg injury to QB Sean Chambers that probably will cause him to miss the rest of the season. Remember that Hawaii won 10 games last year and appeared in the Conference Title Game. Todd Graham takes over for Nick Rolovich (who went to Washington State) and should do well here. We know they came back last week, but losing Chambers is a huge blow to Wyoming’s season. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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10-29-20 | Colorado State -1.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Colo State So Colorado State did not play last week. Fresno State did. The reason for that discrepancy is that CSU’s game at New Mexico was waved off due to COVID. Fresno State probably wishes it had not played as they were a 34-19 loser to Hawaii. The Bulldogs actually took an early 7-0 lead in the game, scoring soon after a Hawaii turnover. But it was their own turnovers (four of them) that proved costly. Plus the defense was terrible, giving up 552 yards, 323 of which came on the ground. Both these Mountain West teams are breaking in first year coaches. Kalen DeBoer is already 0-1 for FSU, Steve Addazio is now looking to avoid the same start in Fort Collins. The Rams won this game last year, 41-31, despite being a 13.5-point underdog. That was right here in Fresno. CSU has now beaten Fresno State three years in a row, scoring 34 or more points every time. The Rams have covered five in a row as favorites, which they are here thanks to a line move. They are also 8-2 ATS L10 Thursday games. Play on COLORADO STATE AAA |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 25-17 | Loss | -120 | 85 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 10* on CAROLINA Atlanta is a sinking ship right now, playing for a lame duck interim coach. It almost seems as if they invent new ways to blow games. They have blown fourth quarter leads in half of their six losses. The most recent being last week against Detroit where had Todd Gurley simply NOT scored a touchdown with 1:04 left, they could have kicked a game winning field goal with no time left. Instead, Gurley did score and that gave the Lions the ball back. They drove 75 yards down the field in 64 seconds and won the game 23-22. Now one loss where the Falcons did not blow a fourth quarter lead was against Carolina three weeks ago. They trailed in that one pretty much throughout and the 23-16 loss ended up getting Dan Quinn fired. We look for the Panthers to pull off the season sweep Thursday night. This time, they are likely to have Christian McCaffery in the lineup. In three road games, the Atlanta defense has yielded an average of 31.0 points/game. They are now on an 8-21 ATS slide in the month of October. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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10-27-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -160 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 10* on TAMPA BAY +1.5 The Dodgers treated us nicely in Game 5, winning 4-2 as our *10* Game of the Year. But with the Rays now facing a must-win situation, we’re now going to throw our support behind them in Game 6. The main reason being not that they are facing elimination, but rather it’s the same starting pitching matchup that treated them so well in Game 2. It was a 1st inning Brandon Lowe HR off Tony Gonsolin that set the tone in Game 2. The Rays went on to win 6-4. Gonsolin hasn’t been good in the playoffs, posting a 9.39 ERA in just 7 ⅔ innings. He lasted for just four outs in Game 2. Blake Snell has never gone a full six innings for the Rays this season, but he doesn’t have to with the bullpen being as good as it is. Snell no-hit the Dodgers for the first four innings (not an easy feat) of Game 2. Tampa Bay is 20-8 off a loss this season and 11-2 when playing with a day off. We believe they will do no worse than a 1-run loss here. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 156 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAR Chicago has been a clear overachiever to this point. In four of their five wins, they’ve gone off as the underdog. An outright win Monday night would match a record with five upsets wins in the first seven games. We don’t see that happening though. The Rams are off a loss at San Francisco where they went off as a three-point favorite. We took the 49ers in that one, feeling the line had moved too much. No such movement this week and we’re comfortable laying points with a team that is 14-8-1 ATS under Sean McVay when laying five or more points. The Rams are also 4-1 ATS the past five as a home favorite. One more trend in their favor is that they are 5-1 ATS off their last six straight up losses. The Bears offense just doesn’t do much. The defense has been bailing them out thus far, however the task will be too tall here as the Rams defense is giving up just 19.0 points/game. In two home games, they’ve allowed just 26 points. They beat the Bears 17-7 last year. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Arizona may have looked good last Monday (we had them!), but this is not a good situation to be facing the undefeated Seahawks. The Cardinals are working on a short week here. Seattle is off a bye. The Seahawks will not play the same kind of mistake-filled football Arizona saw in Dallas Monday night. Russell Wilson is having an MVP-caliber season right now. His team has covered seven straight when playing with AT LEAST seven days rest. They are 3-0 ATS the last three seasons off their bye. The Seahawks’ offense is averaging nearly 34 points per game and almost 7.0 yards per play! Remember that the Cardinals have lost to the likes of the Lions and Panthers, the former coming right here at home. The four teams they’ve beaten - San Francisco, Washington, the Jets and Dallas - aren’t exactly off to great starts. Excluding the 49ers, the other three teams Arizona has beaten are a combined 3-15 SU. They are not in the Seahawks league … yet. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-25-20 | Bucs -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 127 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TB Not sure how bumping this game UP helps the Raiders, who have had to place their entire starting offensive linemen on the COVID-19 list! We liked Tampa Bay BEFORE the unfortunate news hit Las Vegas’ ranks and now this sets up to be an even better spot to take the Bucs. They should overwhelm the Raiders up front. Honestly, the Raiders were going to struggle in pass protection even with their normal starting offensive line. Tampa Bay’s defense is #1 in the league in stopping the run and total yards allowed. They’ve got the second most sacks with 22. Just last week we saw the Bucs beat a previously unbeaten Green Bay team by four touchdowns. Since losing at New Orleans in Week 1, TB has gone 4-1 with that one loss coming by a single point on a Thursday night game. (They probably should have beaten Chicago too). Tom Brady is 21-12 ATS L33 as a road favorite. The Bucs have quietly scored the second most points in the league, are fully healthy on offense and are facing a defense that has given up 30 or more points in four of its five games. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-25-20 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NO New Orleans is dealing with injuries at receiver, but not having Michael Thomas for most of their games hasn’t slowed them down thus far. They’ve scored 30 or more in all but one game this season. So even with Emmanuel Sanders set to be out, we still think the Saints will find a way to put up enough points on the Panthers this week. Look for the offense to lean on Alvin Kamara, who has four straight games of 100+ total yards and has way more receiving yardage than any other back in the league. Remember the Saints are off a bye here, so they’ve had two weeks to prepare for a Panthers team that is starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB. Bridgewater started five games for the Saints last year, so they know him well. Though only 3-2 straight up to this point, October is when the Saints get hot. They are 15-2 ATS in the month of October since 2016, which is the best record in the league over that span. They’ve also covered 21 of the last 31 division games. Carolina didn’t look very good against Chicago last week and has topped 23 points in just two games, both times at home. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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10-25-20 | Lions v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -114 | 124 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATL Atlanta finally won a game! They beat Minnesota last week, handily, 40-23 as a 4-point road underdog. That was the first game since firing Dan Quinn. Interim Raheem Morris now looks to make it two in a row as the Falcons are set to host Detroit this week. The Lions are similar to the Birds in that they too are off a win and probably should have a better record. The Lions have led in all five of their games including by double digits in all three losses! But Atlanta can top that as they held double digit 4th quarter leads in two of its losses. Detroit was off a bye facing Jacksonville last week, so that helped. The last time they won two straight games was when they started 2-0-1 last year. Since then, they’ve won just three of 18 games. They are 3-9 ATS their last 12 games as an underdog. The Lions’ defense is 4th worst in the league right now so look for Falcons RB Todd Gurley to potentially have a repeat of his performance two weeks ago when he went for 121 yards on 14 touches. Atlanta will win its first home game of the season. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-25-20 | Packers -3 v. Texans | Top | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 124 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 6* on GB Green Bay suffered its first loss of the season last week and it came in humiliating fashion, 38-10 at Tampa Bay. But despite giving up 38 unanswered points, the Packers were not necessarily dominated to the degree that you might think. Two Aaron Rodgers’ interceptions, one of which was returned for a TD, really swung that game in the Buccaneers’ direction. Prior to last week’s loss, GB hadn’t turned the ball over once all year. The offense scored 30+ points in each of the first four weeks. Now they’ll face a Texans defense that is in tatters after giving away the lead late last week and losing in overtime to Tennessee. Other than Jacksonville, all of Houston’s opponents have scored at least 28 points. The Texans are 30th in total yards allowed and last against the run. They’ve also allowed 13 passing TDs in six games. So Rodgers should have a nice bounce back game here. He’s already 5-0 ATS off his previous five losses. Houston has not covered (0-4 ATS) as an underdog this season. The Packers are 8-2 ATS L10 vs. AFC teams. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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10-24-20 | Georgia State v. Troy -2.5 | Top | 36-34 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TROY Troy is 3-1 with the three wins all coming against bad teams and the loss being to BYU. They shouldn’t have much trouble defeating a Georgia State team that is simply not very good on the road. The Panthers, now 1-2, gave up 59 points in a loss at Arkansas State last Thursday. It was their second “close” conference loss (also lost 34-31 to Louisiana in OT) but the bottom line is they are now just 2-11 SU L13 road games. We faded them at Arkansas State, noting GSU was listed as a home underdog against East Carolina several weeks ago. Though they did win that game 49-29, it says a lot when you’re an underdog at home to East Carolina. As mentioned at the outset of the analysis, Troy has handled its business as a favorite this year, winning all three times in that role. While they only beat Eastern Kentucky by two, the other two wins were by 33 and 20 points. Georgia State’s defense is allowing over 40 PPG so far and the team/coaching staff has been impacted by COVID-19. Can’t see them winning here. Play on TROY AAA |
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10-24-20 | Virginia Tech -9 v. Wake Forest | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VA TECH Virginia Tech is 3-1 and coming off an impressive 40-14 win over Boston College last Saturday night. The Hokies have scored 38 or more in every game this season. They now face a Wake Forest team that’s won two in a row after an 0-2 start. The Demon Deacons have put up 40 or more in three straight games themselves, but were also the clear beneficiaries of a +3 turnover margin in last week’s 40-23 upset of Virginia. The WF defense is going to have all sorts of problems stopping the run this weekend. They gave up 270 yards rushing to NC State and 218 more to Virginia. Led by Kansas transfer Khalil Herbert, Va Tech has run for at least 260 yards in every game. Wake has covered just once in its last six tries as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also just 2-4 ATS coming off back to back wins. The only time that the Demon Deacons have beaten Va Tech in the last five meetings was an ugly 6-3 win back in 2014. The Hokies won 38-17 last season in Blacksburg and not enough has changed on the WF side to convince us this one will go much better. Lay the points! Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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10-24-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Marshall -16 | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MARSHALL Marshall, along with Arkansas, is one of two 4-0 ATS teams in the country. The Thundering Herd are also 4-0 straight up though and winning in convincing fashion. They’ve posted four double digit victories, the most recent being 35-17 over Louisiana Tech last weekend, while outgaining the opposition by an average of nearly 156 yards/game. We still don’t know a ton about this week’s opponent, Florida Atlantic, who has played just one game thus far. That one game was an uninspiring 21-17 win over Charlotte, which was at home and saw FAU get outgained by almost 100 yards. Marshall is 6-1 all-time vs. FAU with a 36-31 win last year in Boca Raton. The Herd come in averaging 37.3 points per contest and 213.8 yards rushing per game. The one game that FAU played was three weeks ago, so simple stuff like tackling on defense could be an issue for them. The Owls were actually down 21-7 at home in that game vs. Charlotte. Marshall is ranked and a pretty strong team at home. The defense allowed just 7 yards rushing last week and has given up only 38 points on the year! FAU is nowhere near as good as they were last year under Lane Kiffin. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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10-24-20 | Auburn -3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AUBURN Two SEC teams coming off misleading (and probably undeserved) losses last week meet here in Oxford. Auburn lost 30-23 to South Carolina last week, despite leading the whole first half and outgaining the Gamecocks 481-297 for the game. That loss dropped the Tigers to 2-2 and they’d be 1-3 if not for a lucky break against Arkansas. Speaking of Arkansas, Ole Miss’ result from last Saturday was even more misleading as they lost 33-21 to the Razorbacks despite having the edge in total yards. The Rebels turned it over SEVEN times, which was their undoing. In this battle of desperate teams, we like the visitors to walk away with the victory as Ole Miss is ranked last in the country in scoring defense, giving up 47 points/game. Auburn’s run game has gone for 259 and 209 yards the last two weeks behind back Tank Bigsby. That’s how we think they’ll control this one. Can’t see Gus Mahlzan’s team losing two in a row as favorites. Off an SEC loss, Auburn is 8-1 SU the last three seasons. They are also 33-11 all-time vs. Mississippi and won four straight years. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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10-24-20 | NC State +17.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -117 | 98 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NC STATE The “Mack Brown express” ran into a brick wall last weekend, losing 31-28 to 1-win Florida State as a 2 TD road favorite. North Carolina came into that game ranked #5 in the country, but obviously tumbled down the polls by losing to a team that had yet to beat a FBS opponent this season. The Tar Heels return home to Chapel Hill this week, to face in-state rival NC State, who will be without their QB Devin Leary. Because Leary is out, this line has been steamed up to the point the Wolfpack are now a solid value plus the points. While it’s never good to be without your starting QB, NC State has an experienced backup in Bailey Hockman. The North Carolina defense has been gashed the last two weeks, first giving up 45 to Virginia Tech, then 31 in the first half to Florida State. NC State is 4-1 and off three consecutive victories, two of them coming as underdogs. They aren’t going to roll over without Leary. Take away the Virginia Tech game and North Carolina is averaging only 28.3 points in its other three contests this year. We don’t think they can score enough to cover the large spread this week. Play on NC STATE AAA |
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10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB -1.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UAB This is a rare non-conference showdown this season, pitting top teams from the Sun Belt and Conference USA. Louisiana came in with a lot of hype this year after winning 11 games in 2019. They opened 2020 with an upset of Iowa State, but haven’t looked impressive since then. They’ve now been outgained in 3 of 4 games, including the win over Iowa State, and are off a loss - 30-27 to Coastal Carolina - where they were nine-point home favorites. Proud to report we were on the dog in that one as we told you that Louisiana’s two prior wins had been by 2 points and 3 in overtime. They trailed for most of those games (against Georgia State and Georgia Southern). Now the Cajuns must deal with a UAB squad that is 4-1, the only loss coming to Miami FL. The Blazers also played for their conference championship last season and have won three straight in fairly impressive fashion. They beat Western Kentucky 37-14 on Saturday for their 21st consecutive win at home. As you can see, this game takes place in Birmingham. The big problem for Louisiana so far is that they are giving up almost 200 yards/game on the ground. That’s a problem vs. UAB, who averages 175 rush yards/game and is 19th in the country in yards/carry. The UAB defense has allowed an average of just 12.3 points the L3 weeks. Play on UAB AAA |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10.5 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on APP STATE Appalachian State finally gets to return to the field after a several week hiatus. The last time the Mountaineers played a game was September 22nd vs. Campbell, which was a 52-21 win. They host SunBelt foe Arkansas State on Thursday night. The Red Wolves were a winner for us last Thursday, outlasting Georgia State in a wild 59-52 affair, which was their second straight game scoring 50 or more. But they can expect far more resistance in this one, facing a Mountaineers defense that is giving up just 19.3 points/game so far. The most points allowed by App State through three games is 21. Perhaps it’s because they are 0-3 ATS, but this line clearly opened too low. As good as the Arkansas State passing attack has been this year, they couldn’t run the ball against Georgia State (just 1.5 yards/carry) and the defense was atrocious. The defensive coordinator and another coach were both let go with the Red Wolves allowing 481.8 yards/game (worst in the Sun Belt) and 39.8 points/game (2nd worst). App State should be able to run the ball at will in this game as they come in as the number five rushing team in the country at 269.3 yards/game. Play on APPALACHIAN STATE AAA |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 173 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARI Dallas has struggled all season on the defensive side of the ball. Actually, to call it “struggling” would be putting things rather mildly. They have flat out stunk defensively. Even last week, when they won, they gave up 34 points to a Giants team that had previously not scored more than 16 points in any game this season. And the Cowboys needed two field goals in the final two minutes, including the game-winner with no time left, just to come out ahead. Through five games, America’s Team has given up more than 400 yards and 36 points/game. The numbers get even uglier when analyzing just the last four games. Only five defenses have given up more yards per game while no one has allowed more points. But of course, on top of that horrific defense, the bigger story is now the loss of QB Dak Prescott (broke his ankle) for the rest of the season. Prescott was putting up historic numbers and doing his best to counteract the defense. Now it’s Andy Dalton under center. Arizona is coming off an easy 30-10 win over the Jets and should again put up plenty of points on Monday night. The Cardinals are now 8-2-2 ATS L12 road games while Dallas is the only team in the league that hasn’t covered a single game this season. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 149 h 59 m | Show |
10* play on SF So the 49ers played a terrible game last week. They lost 43-17 at home to Miami. It happens. Admittedly, San Francisco should be worried as the week before that they lost at home to Philadelphia. Now they face the prospect of a third consecutive home defeat as the Rams come to town Sunday night. Don’t look for that to happen though. This line “flipped” pretty quickly as it was San Fran that opened as a favorite. The line move has been pretty severe and an overreaction (our opinion) to what happened last week. The Rams are 4-1, but have beaten some pretty weak teams along the way. The last two weeks have seen them get to face the Giants and Washington, who are a combined 1-9. This is the first time all season that the 49ers will be an underdog. It comes at a time when the offense is the healthiest it's been all year. They defeated the Rams both times last year. Let’s just chalk up last week to a “one week thing” as SF should bounce back in primetime this week. They are 5-1 ATS their last six games as an underdog. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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10-18-20 | Bears v. Panthers | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -117 | 75 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on CAROLINA Two overachieving teams meet in Charlotte this Sunday with the 3-2 Panthers hosting the 4-1 Bears. What’s really remarkable about those two won-loss records is that the teams have combined to be favored in just ONE game all year. That was when the Bears hosted the Giants and they did not cover the spread! Carolina has won as an underdog each of the last three weeks. We do not see an upset in this game. In three of their four wins this year (Giants being the exception), Chicago has come back from a double digit deficit. They gained just 4.1 yards per play against Tampa Bay last Thursday and were outgained by nearly 100 yards in the game. That they won should be considered a minor miracle. This is an offense that has failed to gain even 300 total yards in either of the two games Nick Foles has started. They have scored just 31 points in those two games. The Carolina defense has looked much improved during the three-game win streak, giving up an average of just 17.7 points/game. A 4-1 team that’s being outgained per play and per game would seem to be rather fraudulent. The Bears are just that and they are 0-5 ATS off their last five ATS wins. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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10-17-20 | Georgia v. Alabama -6 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 101 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ALABAMA Alabama may not have a good recent history as a home favorite of 7 points or less (0-4-1 ATS with four outright losses), but what the Crimson Tide do have here is some serious motivation, coming off last week’s lackadaisical defensive effort vs. Ole Miss. The Tide gave up 48 points and more than 600 yards in one of the worst efforts of the Saban era. With Saban himself testing positive for COVID-19, everyone seems to be counting out Bama this week against Georgia, but not us. The Tide looked just fine to us the first two games, so we’ll call last week a bad matchup. Saban has even suggested Lane Kiffin (former assistant) may have known Bama’s defensive signals. Georgia’s offense is struggling to run the ball, averaging only 3.8 yards/carry. Alabama QB Mac Jones is completing almost 80% of his passes. Saban’s absence from the sidelines would loom large Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, but the home team will still find a way to win … and cover. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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10-17-20 | Boston College +12 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 14-40 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON COLLEGE Just how LETHAL has Boston College been as an underdog? Well, they are already 3-0 ATS this season when taking points. That includes outright wins over Duke when they were +6 (won 26-6) and last week against Pitt when they were +6.5 (won 31-30 in OT). The only non-cover for BC this season was in an uninspiring non-conference game vs. Texas State, which they won 24-21. Going back several seasons, the Eagles are now 20-5-1 ATS their L26 ACC games. As an underdog, that record jumps to 17-2-1 ATS and they’ve won 11 times outright! That can’t be music to the ears of Virginia Tech, who just gave up 56 points last week at North Carolina and is 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has been installed as a double digit favorite. Keep in mind that BC held North Carolina to only 26 points and almost beat them earlier this month. While it’s true Virginia Tech is now healthier at QB and can run the ball, this BC defense hasn’t given up more than 26 points in regulation all year. That BC is 3-0 ATS as a dog despite no real running game of their own is impressive. They are now a passing offense with Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec averaging nearly 300 yards/game. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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10-17-20 | Virginia -3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 23-40 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VIRGINIA Virginia played a really sloppy game last week against NC State, which is why they lost 38-21 as a seven-point home favorite. But please do not make the mistake of judging that game by its final score. The Cavaliers outgained the Wolfpack 405-363. So how did they lose by 17, you ask? Turnovers. There were four of them by UVA (only 1 by NC State). All were costly, especially a late pick-six that broke the game open. Turning it over on downs in the 4Q led to another late NC State TD. This week the Cavaliers are at Wake Forest, who is off a bye, but also is 0-2 vs. the ACC. The Demon Deacons got predictably blown out by Clemson then lost 45-42 at NC State. Their only win was against FCS Campbell. So both teams losses were to the same two teams (with both covering vs. Clemson), the only difference is Virginia actually beat an ACC team (Duke) rather than a FCS one. We know there are some question marks at QB for the Cavaliers (Brennan Armstrong got knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion, another bad break), but backup Lindell Stone looked good enough (save for the pick-six). No matter who is the QB, look for the road team to win Saturday afternoon. Wake Forest’s defense is the worst in the ACC on third down (52.4% conversion rate) while Virginia’s defense is great at stopping the run (allows only 3.4 yds/carry). Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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10-17-20 | South Florida +11 v. Temple | Top | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 93 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF Last week, we told you to fade Temple in its very first game of the season. The Owls lost, 31-29, to a Navy team that had really been struggling this season. While a late 2-pt try could have tied it, Temple never led in the contest, though it did outgain the Midshipmen. Still, that “moral victory” will be of no use here as the Owls are being asked to lay double digits, something they are clearly not ready to do at this juncture of the season. South Florida has been bad, losing three straight by 20 or more points. But two of those were against really good teams (Notre Dame, Cincinnati). We don’t know what to say about last week’s 44-24 home loss to East Carolina. The Bulls secondary actually held up against both ranked opponents and is allowing only 6.6 yards per attempt this year. Including an ATS win at Cincinnati, USF is 5-1 ATS off its previous six ATS defeats, so they tend to bounce back from disappointing efforts. This is enough points for us to feel comfortable in selecting a pretty desperate underdog. Play on USF AAA |
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10-17-20 | Clemson -26.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 73-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON While Clemson had been winning comfortably, they were 0-3 ATS heading into last week’s heavily hyped showdown with Miami. On Saturday night, the Tigers reminded us all why they are considered one of the elite CFB programs in this country. They blew the doors off the Hurricanes, winning 42-17, and easily covered the 14-point spread. Even after a high profile win such as that, Clemson shouldn’t have much trouble covering this larger spread this week at Georgia Tech. Not only are the Yellow Jackets 0-5 ATS their L5 vs. ranked opponents, they have failed to cover all four times in program history when they’ve been an underdog of at least 27 points. Clemson is 16-5 ATS L21 ACC games and 18-7 ATS its last 25 times as a double digit favorite. The last two years, they’ve beaten Georgia Tech 49-21 and 52-14. The Yellow Jackets defense has been really bad this season, even giving up 37 to Syracuse. Last Friday’s 46-27 win over Louisville was a completely misleading final score. The Jackets were actually outgained (gave up 471 yards) but got lucky with a +3 turnover differential. Clemson won’t be so generous here. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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10-16-20 | Astros +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON +1.5 Going into Game 4 of the ALCS, Tampa Bay was up 3-0 in the series and owned a MLB-best 16-5 record in one-run games this season. That was the best win percentage in one-run games for any single season in the history of baseball. Well, as you know, the ALCS is still going on. The Rays are now just 16-7 in one-run games having lost Games 4 and 5 by identical 4-3 scores. Last night it was a Carlos Correa walk-off that proved to be the difference for the Astros. Houston has outhit Tampa Bay in this series, even when they were losing, so we’re not surprised that they’ve climbed back into the series. With the series being so low-scoring thus far (every game has stayed Under), taking Houston +1.5 in a must-win spot seems ideal. On the mound, it’ll be a rematch of Game 1 starters tonight. Framber Valdez allowed just two runs on four hits for the Astros in Game 1. He’s gone at least six innings in all but two of his 12 starts in 2020. Blake Snell hasn’t gone a full six (innings) one time this season. He did give up just the one run in Game 1, but Astros’ hitters were making good contact with him and had six hits. Snell also had only two strikeouts, compared to eight by Valdez. Play on HOUSTON +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3.5 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS STATE Arkansas State (2-2) holds a win over Kansas State, which is looking more and more impressive as time wears on. (Kansas State has since gone 3-0 with a win over Oklahoma). The Red Wolves did get their doors blown off at Coastal Carolina, but finally got a home game last Saturday and in it defeated Central Arkansas 50-27. While that’s a FCS team, the Red Wolves have obviously proven they can beat a good team. They are 3-0 ATS besides the games vs. Coastal Carolina, who may be a better team that most realize. As for Georgia State, we know they almost upset Sun Belt standard bearer Louisiana. But they lost that game in overtime. That was almost a month ago. The Panthers’ lone other contest took place 12 days ago and they had little problem beating East Carolina 49-29. That they were 17-point underdogs to Louisiana and a slight underdog at home to ECU should tell you what the market thinks of them. Now COVID-19 played a role in those lines, but we think they are getting a bit too much respect Thursday in Jonesboro. GSU is just 2-10-2 ATS its L14 road games. They won’t win here. Play on ARKANSAS STATE AAA |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina +7.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Coastal Carolina Louisiana won 11 games last year and is currently unbeaten and ranked #21 in the country. They defeated nationally ranked Iowa State in their season opener. But the resume for this Ragin Cajun team isn’t as rosy as you might think. They have been outgained in two of their three games, including the upset of Iowa State, and their last two wins have been by 2 points and 3 in overtime. They did not come close to covering the 17-point spread vs. Georgia State nor the 12-point spread vs. Georgia Southern, even trailing outright for a considerable portion of those two games. In comes Sun Belt rival Coastal Carolina, who is also 3-0 on the road. The Chanticleers have also beaten a Big 12 team this year (Kansas) and scored 95 points in the two wins since. They’ve had excellent line play on both sides of the football. Throw in the fact this game has had to be moved twice and you’ve got all the makings of an upset Wednesday night on ESPN2. Coastal Carolina has covered each of the last four tries as a road underdog while Louisiana is 0-4 ATS the L4 times it has been a favorite. Play on Coastal Carolina AAA |
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10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat +5 | Top | 106-93 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIA Miami isn’t going down without a fight -- that is if they go down at all! As we said prior to Game 5 - “if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch.” We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. By pulling the upset in Game 5, the Heat now have a 15-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 14-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. We said to bank on them shooting better in Game 5 than they did in Game 4 (when they finished with a 42.7 FG%) and they did, finishing at 42.9% from three-point range. (They were above 50% overall in both Games 2 and 3). Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He’s had a combined 28 points and 11 rebounds since returning. But of course it has been Jimmy Butler “carrying the load” with those great individual efforts in Games 3 (40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists) and 5 (35-12-11). At one point in Game 5, the Lakers were shooting 56.3% and still losing. Now Anthony Davis is banged up. All the pressure is on the Lakers. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-11-20 | Astros +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU +1.5 There are no off days in the LCS, so these teams could be playing as many as seven games in seven days. We think there’s going to be a real premium on starting pitchers going deep into games. Granted, Tampa Bay is never afraid to have a “quick hook” and turn to its bullpen, which has been successful for them all year. But with just one day off between series and Game 1 starter Blake Snell having yet to pitch a full six innings even one time in 2020, the Rays seem to be at a bit of a disadvantage here. Astros Game 1 starter Framber Valdez has gone a full seven innings in 7 of his 13 outings this season. The team that homers more has gone 22-1 this postseason. Houston homered 12 times in 4 games vs. Oakland, Tampa Bay homered 11 times in 5 games vs. the Yankees. This pretty clearly isn’t the same Houston team we saw struggle in the regular season. They are healthier now and motivated by the cheating scandal. Last year, they ousted TB in 5 games in the LDS. They took the first two games of that series. Taking the ‘Stros on the run line here is a tremendous value as we just can’t see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. Play HOUSTON +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys -8 | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS The Cowboys are 0-4 against the spread. The only other winless ATS teams are: the Jets, Texans and Titans. The Titans have played only three games (but are 3-0 straight up!) while the other two teams on that list are both 0-4 SU. The Cowboys are lucky not to be 0-4 SU also. Their only win was a huge comeback at Atlanta. Dak Prescott and the offense are doing just fine, thank you (#1 in yards per game!). But the Dallas defense stinks right now as it is giving up the third most yards and most points per game. That’s where a matchup with the 0-4 Giants comes in. New York’s offense, minus Saquon Barkley, simply isn’t good enough to take advantage of the Dallas defense the same way previous opponents have. The G-Men are averaging the second fewest yards and the fewest points in the league right now. We faded Dallas last week (outright winner with Cleveland!) and while we don’t necessarily trust them to cover the full game spread this week, we expect a fast start. All they need to be is up a touchdown and that seems very doable against a side averaging just 5.5 points per game in the first half this year. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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10-11-20 | Cardinals -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 139 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona seemed like it would be a “surprise team” in 2020 as they started 2-0, including a win over the NFC Champion 49ers. But the last two weeks have seen them lose as favorites to the Lions and Panthers. That’s just not acceptable if they wish to be taken seriously. Fortunately for Kliff Kingsbury, this week’s opponent is the Jets and that’s a team no one is taking seriously right now. The Jets might be the worst team in the league at this point. Sam Darnold wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire before getting hurt last Thursday vs. Denver. If he’s out, then the Jets would have to go with the ancient Joe Flacco at quarterback. In that Thursday night game vs. the Broncos, the Jets were +3 in turnovers and still lost by nine at home. That was to a winless team starting the undrafted Brett Rypien at QB on a short week! Arizona easily could have been 3-0 going into last week’s game. They played poorly at Carolina, plain and simple. But they are talented enough to bounce back with a big win here against a team that’s giving up almost 35 points per game over the L3 weeks. The Jets offense has no talent left at the skill positions and has lost every game by at least nine points. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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10-10-20 | Temple v. Navy +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 81 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NAVY Navy is not having a good start to the season. The Midshipmen are 1-2 and the two losses have been by 52 and 33 points. In their only win, 27-24 over Tulane, they trailed 24-0 at the half. They were actually FAVORED by 6.5 points last week when they lost to Air Force 40-7. But we are not ready to declare this a “sinking ship” just yet. This week the Middies welcome Temple to Annapolis. The Owls have yet to play a game in 2020, so we don’t know a ton about them. What we do know is that this game was originally set to take place on 9/26, but Temple coach Rod Carey said his team “needed more time to prepare.” That was awfully nice of Navy to give Temple an extra two week. Something else that needs to be pointed out is that the Midshipmen played last week’s game without their starting QB Dalen Morris. He is slated to return for this game. With all four of its non-conference games cancelled, Temple is just too big of a question mark to lay points on the road. Coach Ken Niumatalolo will have Navy ready to play here. Play on NAVY AAA |
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10-10-20 | Florida -6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA Things aren’t looking too rosy for Texas A&M right now after an unimpressive win over Vanderbilt and a blowout loss to Alabama. Still ranked (for now), Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies must now face Florida, another top five team that is scoring in bunches. The Gators have put up 89 points in two wins, both of which were by double digits. They won at Ole Miss 51-35 with 642 yards offense, then took care of South Carolina 38-24. While that second game ended up being pretty even in terms of total yards, Florida was ahead 38-14 late in the 3rd quarter and clearly took its foot off the gas. South Carolina was pretty lucky to go 11 for 23 on third/fourth down, something we don’t see the Aggies replicating. Even more so than giving up a 31-3 run to Alabama, A&M’s poor showing vs. Vandy casts a real “shadow of doubt” over the team’s preseason ranking. They have not done well in the past at home vs. top five opponents, losing all five such matchups since 2000. Florida has won all seven times they’ve been a road favorite under Mullen with the tightest margin of victory being eight points. This is a “friendly” line for the favorite too! Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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10-09-20 | Heat +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 53 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami is down to their “last proverbial out.” It’s win or go home time as they trail the Lakers 3-1 in the series. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch. We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. That leaves the Heat with a 14-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 13-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He had 15 points and 7 rebounds in Game 4. Of course, Jimmy Butler had that great individual effort in Game 3 with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. Bank on the Heat shooting better than they did in Game 4 when they finished with a 42.7 FG%. (They were above 50% the previous two games). This might very well turn out to be the last game of the NBA bubble/season. But the Heat, who haven’t failed to cover in B2B games the entire playoffs, won’t go down without a fight. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-09-20 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY (RUN LINE) It’s come down to one game for the Yankees and the Rays as Game 5 is Friday night with the winner moving on (to face the Astros) in the ALCS and the loser going home. After staying alive with a 5-1 win in Game 4 last night, the Yankees are favored here as they’ve got Gerrit Cole on the mound. As great as he’s been over the last month, a lot of his success has to do with run support and we don’t think Cole can necessarily count on that tonight. Tampa Bay is taking a different approach as Tyler Glasnow, who started the Game 2 win, will open. From there, we’re likely to see Blake Snell and others. With Glasnow, not only did he strike out 10 Yankees in just five innings back in Game 2, he also has a 10-0 team start record in his L10 starts! Over the L7 starts, Glasnow has a sub 1.00 WHIP. So we've got full confidence in him for however long he’s in there tonight. The Rays pitching depth is such that there will be no drop off when they do decide to make the change. (Snell is a former Cy Young winner!) There has yet to be a one-run game in this series, but remember that Game 1 was 4-3 heading into the ninth inning. We say that Tampa Bay does no worse than a one-run loss in Game 5 and we obviously give them a great shot at winning “outright!” Play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-09-20 | Louisville -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISVILLE For the second straight day in College Football, we’re a bit perplexed by a line move. It was only three weeks ago that Louisville was ranked 18th in the country. Now they are laying a very small number to a Georgia Tech team that simply isn’t very good. Yes, the Cardinals have dropped two straight. But those losses came to Miami and Pittsburgh, both of whom were top 25 teams at the time (Miami is now in the Top 10). Georgia Tech is probably the worst team in the entire ACC and also coming off two straight losses. Their losses were more severe though as they were beaten 49-21 by UCF and 37-20 by Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets lone win was by three points over struggling Florida State, a game that featured a long weather delay. The Jackets’ defense is probably in a lot of trouble Friday night. They gave up 37 to a Syracuse team that had previously scored just 16 pts in two games. Louisville comes in averaging over 400 yards/game behind QB Malik Cunningham. Ga Tech is 0-5 SU/ATS L5 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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10-08-20 | Bucs -5 v. Bears | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB In a year where scoring is at an all-time record pace, the Bears seem to be a little “slow on the uptake.” They are averaging only 21.3 points per game, which ranks in the bottom quarter of the league, and that number would be even lower were it not for a couple of miracle 4th quarter comebacks against Detroit and Atlanta, two of the worst defensive teams in football. Switching to Nick Foles at QB produced a “one-week miracle” against Atlanta, but had no effect last week when the Bears faced the tough defense of the Colts. Up until a “garbage-time” drive late in the 4th quarter, Foles and the Bears offense had produced all of 3 points and 179 total yards vs. Indy. Now, on a short week, they must deal with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, who have won three straight (averaging 32.3 points/game) since a season-opening loss to the Saints (whom they held below 300 total yards). The Bucs had almost 500 yards of offense last week in a comeback effort over the Chargers. Brady threw TD passes to five different receivers. Chicago is 4-12 ATS its last 16 games and 0-6 ATS its L6 vs. teams with winning records. That 3-0 start was a total mirage as they beat three teams that are now a combined 1-11 SU. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-08-20 | Tulane +7 v. Houston | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -118 | 35 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULANE The line move earlier in the week is something we found to be rather curious. Houston has yet to even play a game! They’ve obviously tried. But five games have had to be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19. That’s insane. This is a team coming off its worst season in 15 years as they went 4-8 SU in 2019. Injuries really took their toll on the Cougars last year. Coach Dana Holgorsen is bringing in a TON of transfers (33!) this year, but also lost QB D’Eriq King to Miami via the transfer portal and it can’t be understated how significant that is. Tulane has already played three games this season and would be 3-0 if not for a stunning 2nd half collapse at home vs. Navy. Two weeks ago, the Green Wave put up 66 points in a total beatdown of Southern Miss, which was the second road win of the season. Their defense has also been pretty good as it ranks third among AAC teams in total yards per game allowed (368.3). Houston’s defense gave up 35.5 points/game vs. FBS foes last season including 38 in a last second loss at Tulane. Not only do we think the underdog will cover the spread here, there’s a very good chance they take the game outright. Play on TULANE AAA |
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10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat +7.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Turns out that people were writing off Miami a little earlier than they should have. As a 9-point underdog, the Heat won Game 3 outright, 115-104. They were led by Jimmy Butler’s triple double of 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. That’s just a tremendous individual effort in the wake of the injuries to both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. Neither of those two are guaranteed to return for Game 4 (though Adebayo has said “he hopes to”). Nevertheless, even without Adebayo and Dragic, Miami starters outscored their Lakers brethren 89-51 in Game 3. The Heat have shot better than 50% overall the L2 games, so they’re pretty locked in offensively right now. As we’ve talked about before, there’s a lot of talent on hand for coach Erik Spoelstra, such as Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder. All three of those players were in double figures in Game 3. For the Lakers, beyond LeBron James and Anthony Davis, there isn’t exactly a ton of talent depth. Though the Lakers have not dropped two straight in any playoff series so far, it is Miami that owns the better ATS record (13-4-1) this postseason and, while the number is down from Game 3, they are still getting too many points here. LA is just 2-8-1 ATS the L11 times they have been off an ATS loss. We never stopped believing that the Heat could compete in this series and taking the points is the way to go for Game 4! Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE) The Yankees and Rays meet in the LDS. Though Tampa Bay finished with the best record in the American League, they are the underdogs in Game 1. We see some real value on the Rays in this situation, especially when it comes to the run line where we can get an additional 1.5 runs at a fairly reasonable price. The Rays were 8-2 against the Yankees in the regular season, beating Game 1 starter Gerritt Cole twice. While Cole has been excellent over the last month, he’s been getting a ton of run support and that doesn’t figure to be the case here as Tampa Bay goes with Blake Snell, who has been every bit as good as Cole recently and over the course of the whole season for that matter. Snell allowed just one hit to Toronto in the last series and it was the third time in the past four starts he gave up one run or less. One of the Yankees two wins in Cleveland was by one run as they had to rally back from a 4-run deficit. The Rays are 32-12 vs. righties this season, the Yankees are just 7-8 vs. lefties. While this series is being contested in San Diego, not Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, it still matters that the Yankees weren’t a great road team in the regular season. Five of the 14 homers that Cole has allowed this year came by the Rays. Play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-04-20 | Seahawks -6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 149 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEA Seattle, for all its defensive faults, still has Russell Wilson and as long as they’re letting the early frontrunner for MVP “cook,” they’ll be just fine. A Miami team that’s off a very misleading 31-13 win over Jacksonville 10 days ago is simply no match here. The Dolphins actually gained less than 300 total yards in that Thursday night win, a number which simply won’t cut it against an opponent like the Seahawks that has put up 35+ points in every game. Wilson’s 14 TD passes through three weeks is an NFL record. The Miami defense really struggled against running QBs Cam Newton and Josh Allen the first two weeks. They gave up an alarming number of yards per play against Buffalo in Week 2. Early start times don’t bother the 3-0 ATS Seahawks, who have covered the number 7 of the last 9 times they’ve played at 1 PM ET (7-1-1). That includes a dominant win over Atlanta in Week 1 (they are the only team not to fall behind by double digits against the Falcons). Laying less than a touchdown is key here. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-04-20 | Saints -4 v. Lions | Top | 35-29 | Win | 100 | 118 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 8* on NO New Orleans is off to a bit of a slow start. After beating Tampa Bay in Week 1, the Saints have subsequently lost to the Raiders and Packers, leaving them at 1-2 despite being a favorite all three times. They’re a favorite again here in Detroit against a Lions team that just won for the first time last week, a surprise upset at Arizona. This marks the first time the Saints have lost two straight in three years. They are expected to get WR Michael Thomas back, which is huge, and laying points shouldn’t concern you as the team’s 12-4 record as a road favorite is a league-best since 2016. Overall, they’ve covered 24 of their last 33 road games, also the best run in the league. There really is nothing wrong with the Saints offense as Alvin Kamara has a NFL-high six touchdowns and now gets to go against a Detroit defense that has really struggled for Matt Patricia. If not for a +3 turnover margin last week vs. Arizona, the Lions would likely be 0-3 coming into this game. Laying a short number seems like a real steal given the disparity in talent between the two teams. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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10-04-20 | Browns +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 49-38 | Win | 100 | 118 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLE Even though the Cowboys are 1-2, they are still considered one of the more talented teams in this league. And the Browns needed five turnovers last week to beat Washington 34-20. So “the world” figures to be laying the points in this one. But we’re taking ‘em (the points, that is) as Dallas would be 0-3 right now had they not delivered that miracle comeback in Atlanta two weeks ago. They are 0-3 against the spread. In three games, they have had the lead for less than 14 minutes. The defense has given up 77 points the last two games and now faces a Browns offense that has scored 69 the last two weeks. Cleveland has a very good running game, thanks to perhaps the best duo of backs in the league, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That Dallas defense is giving up over 400 yards per game including 128 on the ground. The Cowboys have covered just one of the last five times they have been the betting favorite. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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10-03-20 | Auburn +7 v. Georgia | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -120 | 76 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AUBURN It didn’t take long for the SEC to produce its first top 10 showdown of 2020. It’ll go down this Saturday in Athens where #4 Georgia hosts #7 Auburn. The visiting Tigers have already beaten one Top 25 foe, that being Kentucky, in the opener last week. It was an impressive win too, 29-13, and it could have been even more lopsided had a 100-yard INT return not been called back on a questionable penalty. Georgia’s win last week wasn’t nearly as impressive, although the final score was 37-10. That was against Arkansas, who is certainly the worst team in the SEC West and probably the worst team in the whole league. The Bulldogs couldn’t run the ball against the Hogs, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry, and they have some real uncertainty at the QB position right now. The Dawgs trailed at halftime last week and didn’t take the lead for good until there were only six minutes left in the third quarter. So it was a bit of a misleading final score. It was a defensive score, late in the third, that really broke the game wide-open. Auburn hasn’t had much luck against Georgia in recent years, but three of the last five losses have been by just a touchdown. We like what we saw from QB Bo Nix last week and think this is the Tigers time to break through. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OKLA Oklahoma was shocked last week at home, blowing a three touchdown advantage and losing 38-35 to Kansas State. (We discussed this in the Kansas State writeup as well). That’s not what the Sooners were expecting in the Big 12 opener and now they’ll try and even their conference record up at 1-1 when they visit Ames Saturday night. Iowa State has also been at home this year. They lost their season opener 31-14 to Louisiana. Really, the Cyclones are lucky not to be 0-2 entering this game. They were outgained 499-423 last week by TCU, but did manage to hold on for the 37-34 victory. Under Matt Campbell, ISU has been more competitive vs. Oklahoma, but a 2017 upset in Norman remains the Cyclones lone victory in the last 21 tries. They’ve lost to them 24 straight times here in Ames. Oklahoma typically bounces back from a loss as they have not dropped two straight in the regular season since 1999. Last week was their first loss in September under Lincoln Riley. Unfortunately, this makes the second year in a row Iowa State has to face OU off a loss. Last year’s game was close (42-41) but having dropped to #18 in the rankings, the Sooners are out for blood here. Lay the short number. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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10-03-20 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -113 | 72 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY Kentucky came up short against Auburn last week, losing 29-13. The game really swung on an interception near the end of the first half. Down 8-7 (yes, that was the score), UK had driven the ball 64 yards down to the Auburn 1 yard line. It was then QB Terry Wilson made a terrible decision and threw an interception that was returned the length of the field for a TD. The ‘pick-six’ was actually called back, but the INT was a mistake that the Wildcats never recovered from. They lost the turnover battle 3-0 and the game 29-13. Still that was a very good team they were up against on the road. A home game vs. Ole Miss should go a whole lot better. Ole Miss also lost to a top 10 team last week, 51-35 vs. Florida, though it was at home. Losing his debut wasn’t what Lane Kiffin wanted, but he was a heavy underdog. Still that underdog status doesn’t justify giving up over 600 yards, even though the Rebels gained 600+ themselves. It’s a much shorter line this week and that means trouble for Ole Miss as they’ve lost 13 straight times as a dog (just 4-9 ATS). They are also 3-6 SU, 1-8 ATS L9 road games. Lay the points with UK, who was ranked themselves last week and remains a good team. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-03-20 | Baylor -2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Baylor FINALLY got to open its season last week and for first year coach Dave Aranda, the former defensive coordinator at LSU, it was worth the wait. The Bears made it look easy, beating Kansas 47-14 as a 17-point favorite. Now Aranda probably knows Kansas is as easy an opponent as you’ll find in the Big XII. But last week’s win definitely showed us this Bears team may be better than expected. Last year they were 11-3 in Waco, but no one is expecting a repeat of that in 2020. Still, the Bears do have Charlie Brewer back at QB and ran for over 200 yards last week. West Virginia only wishes it could say that about their offensive performance last week vs. Oklahoma State. But in a game they were pointing to all offseason, the Mountaineers came up well short. They scored only one offensive touchdown in a very disappointing 27-13 loss. While it’s a return to Morgantown this week, home field advantage doesn’t mean in 2020 what it used to and WVU has actually lost its last FIVE Big 12 home games! You can bet Baylor smells “blood in the water” as they seek to win for the first time ever in Morgantown. Off a better than expected performance last week, we’re on the road favorite. The Bears have won five straight times as a road favorite, covering four. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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10-02-20 | Heat +9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIA Miami got blown out in Game 1. Along the way, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler all got hurt. Butler will play in Game 2 but the other two are officially listed as doubtful. So basically everyone is going to write off the Heat. We will not. While injuries obviously do matter, this number is far off from where it was in Game 1 when a LOT of bettors were taking the points. If Miami does lose Game 2, it will be the first time they’ve lost consecutive games in the playoffs. The Lakers are 7-2-1 ATS L10 games, but several of those wins have come by single digits. This play is classic “zig zag theory” as the previous game loser was blown out and now getting more points to work with in the next game. Given all the hype that existed around Miami less than 48 hours ago, we believe it foolish to simply write them off after one bad loss. Their 2-3 zone can keep them in this one. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are a pair of 3-point specialists that can help Jimmy Butler with the offense. The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS off an ATS loss including 3-0 in the playoffs. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech +24.5 v. BYU | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on La Tech Louisiana Tech and BYU are both 2-0, but the Cougars have obviously been the more impressive of the two. That’s why they are favored by more than three touchdowns at home Friday night. However, we’re here to say that you should not go discounting the underdogs. La Tech has already gone on the road as an underdog one time and won. Granted, that was vs. Southern Miss, but a “win is a win.” Last week’s 66-38 beatdown over Houston Baptist now looks a bit more impressive in retrospect seeing as the Texas Tech team that almost upset Texas was given a run for their money by that particular FCS opponent. BYU has won 55-3 and 48-7 over Navy and Troy. But this is by far their biggest spread yet. They were only 1-pt favorites against Navy and 14.5-point favorites over Troy. Louisiana Tech isn’t a bad team by any means. They’ve won six straight bowl games and are 12-3 SU L15 games overall. Assuming they do lose for the first time in 2020, it won’t be without a fight. Do not forget BYU was 0-7 ATS as a favorite last season while La Tech is 9-3 ATS the L12 times it has been a dog. The Bulldogs are too good to be getting this kind of number. Play on LA Tech AAA |
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10-02-20 | Storm v. Aces +5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAS VEGAS This is Game 1 of the Best of Five WNBA Finals. Both Seattle and Las Vegas were 18-4 in the regular season. Las Vegas swept the season series, though Seattle was dealing with key injuries for both games. The Aces did need the full five games to eliminate Connecticut in the semifinals while Seattle swept Minnesota. Now it's LV that’s going to be missing a key piece, Dearica Hamby, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Connecticut series. But the Aces still have both MVP A’ja Wilson as well as Angel McCoughtry under their sleeve and that should be plenty for them to cover the spread here. The Aces have covered five straight times as underdogs. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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10-01-20 | Broncos -1 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 109 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DEN Denver has made the decision to start Brett Rypien at QB this week. He’ll be their third starter in as many weeks. The Broncos are 0-3 and averaging just 15 points/game. They are off a terrible showing vs. Tampa Bay where they were beaten 28-10 at home and barely gained over 200 yards. BUT…. Thursday night they are up against the Jets, who have been the WORST team in the league through three weeks. The Jets are also 0-3, but all of their losses have been by 10 points or greater. At least you can say Denver has been competitive this year as they lost to Tennessee on a last second field goal and then hung with the Steelers (in Pittsburgh), losing by just five points despite Jeff Driskell being called into emergency QB duty. The Jets only average 12.3 points/game and each loss has gotten progressively worse as they’ve lost by 10, 18 and then 29. Denver is 10-3 ATS their L13 Thursday night games and a perfect 5-0 ATS after being held to 15 points or less in their last game. While the injuries remain a concern, the Broncos were expected to be competitive this year. Can’t say the same for the Jets as Adam Gase has proven himself to be a horrendous coach. Rypien will play well enough to win here. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 37 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC What a matchup we have Monday night as it’s the Chiefs taking on the Ravens in a battle of the two top AFC teams. Winner here could very likely have an inside track on home field advantage for the playoffs, which is now more important than ever with the format having changed (only one team gets a first round bye). While Baltimore has won 14 straight regular season games outright (11-2-1 ATS!), all good things must come to an end as KC found out last week when their own 10-game ATS win streak ended with a close overtime victory in LA over the Chargers. The key here is the Chiefs being underdogs. They’ve covered 10 of the last 13 times getting points including 5-0-1 ATS with Mahomes as the starting QB. In the past 20 seasons, defending Super Bowl Champs getting points in the first three weeks of the season have gone a remarkable 11-1 ATS. Last week marked just the second time in Mahomes career that he didn’t cover in the month of September. In 12 career September games, he has an outrageous 28-0 TD-INT ratio! This matchup is a little bit of the “immovable object” against the “irresistible force” and we love the idea of getting points. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-27-20 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami failed in its first try to put away Boston, uncharacteristically blowing a double digit lead. The game swung pretty dramatically in the third quarter when the Celtics outscored the Heat 41-25. Miami’s three-point shooting for the game (19.4%) was dreadful as it’s been now for the last 13 quarters of the series (below 25%!). Expect the Heat to rediscover their touch from downtown Sunday. As we know, the Heat have not lost two in a row since the playoffs began. They’ve only been beaten in regulation twice, both times in this series, in 14 games. Off a double digit loss, they are 9-3 SU this season. While we won’t predict the Heat win straight up here, it’s very likely that they will and thus finish off the series. Take the points. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-27-20 | Cowboys v. Seahawks -4.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE This will be a big game in the 4PM (ET) window as the 2-0 Seahawks host the Cowboys. Dallas is very lucky not to be winless after two weeks. Last week, they had an incredible rally from a 19-point deficit that included 16 points in the final five minutes. It’s a good thing they were playing Atlanta as the Falcons seem like one of the few teams capable of blowing a lead like that. Seattle is a different story. Russell Wilson has this team looking very good. They didn’t have any problems with Atlanta, beating them 38-25 in Week 1. Then they came home to defeat New England 35-30 in the Sunday night game last week. The Seahawks offense is averaging 7.2 yards per play so far and it’s not like the Dallas defense has looked all that great. Mike McCarthy isn’t a great coach either. The Dallas offense, despite all the talent, tends to struggle on the road. Remember they lost to the Rams in Week 1 and scored only 17 points. That was the 4th straight road loss for Big D and the offense has failed to score a TD in two of those four losses. In its last 45 drives on the road, the Cowboys have found the end zone a total of five times and three of those were in the fourth quarter of a 31-24 loss at Chicago. They are just 2-7 ATS L9 games vs. a team that has a winning record. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-27-20 | Panthers v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 21-16 | Loss | -109 | 118 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CHARGERS Carolina wasn’t expected to be very good. But with the loss of their best player, things figure to get even worse. RB Christian McCaffery is out for at least the next three weeks. The Panthers have started 0-2 with losses to the Raiders and Buccaneers. Their defense has given up 65 points and now the offense, which turned it over four times last week, has been severely weakened. It is very difficult seeing Carolina breaking into the win column without McCaffery. As for the Chargers, they nearly beat the Chiefs last week and that was despite losing starting QB Tyrod Taylor shortly before kickoff. First round draft pick Justin Herbert stepped up and had a promising pro debut, throwing for over 300 yards. But perhaps more impressive was the defense holding Patrick Mahomes to 20 points in regulation. Were it not for TWO 58-yard field goals from KC’s kicker, the Chargers would have won that game. They’ll win this one - pretty easily in fact. With Carolina’s defense being so bad, the Chargers will have their highest point total to date. With McCaffery out, and the Chargers allowing just 18 PPG, the Panthers aren’t going to score much. Add it up and we’ve got a potential blowout on our hands. Going back to last year, Carolina has lost 10 straight games. They’ve covered just 5 of their last 16 road games. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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09-26-20 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DEN For a third straight series, Denver finds itself down three games to one. Before this year’s playoffs, no team in history had ever come back from multiple 3-1 series deficits to win a series. Only a handful of teams had ever come back from one 3-1 series deficit. Of course, you could say Denver has the Lakers “right where they want them.” Since losing Game 1, the Nuggets have played LA tough with the two losses coming by a total of eight points (six and two). While they’re 0-3 SU in Game 4’s this postseason, they are obviously perfect in Game 5’s and 6-0 SU overall from Game 5 on. They are also 8-1 ATS when down in the series this postseason and that record could be 9-1 if you got the Nuggets at +6.5 on Thursday. Denver has shot the ball very well in this series, including right around 52% the last two games. In Game 4, the Lakers had tremendous advantages in both second chance points and free throw attempts, but those kinds of disparities are not something they should expect again. Take the points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-26-20 | Alabama -27 v. Missouri | Top | 38-19 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALABAMA Alabama is a far more talented team than Missouri. But you didn’t need us to tell you that. Still, the oddsmakers are being far too conservative with this Week 1 line as the Tide are going to roll in Columbia. Mizzou has a new coach and just 69 players set to dress Saturday. This seems like a major problem when getting ready to face the #1 team in the country. Alabama, having gone a whole TWO YEARS without winning a National Championship, is likely to be very motivated this season. If there’s one coach that can have his team properly focused during a time like this, it is Nick Saban. As per usual in Tuscaloosa, there are multiple players on the roster projected to be first round draft choices by the NFL. The fact that QB Mac Jones got some playing time last year when Tua was hurt is beneficial. That Missouri’s potential starting QB decided to transfer is not! The Tigers have failed to cover in seven straight SEC games and adding ‘Bama to the schedule certainly didn’t help their cause in 2020. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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09-26-20 | Mississippi State v. LSU -16.5 | Top | 44-34 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU With the loss of Joe Burrow and countless others, it seems as if a lot of people are “writing off” LSU coming into the season. We’re here to tell you that’s a mistake. One of the most successful programs in all of CFB, the defending champs should be “just fine” in 2020. The Tigers are rated #6 for a reason. They’ll have a great defense again. While 10 SEC games is tough, Mississippi State is an ideal opponent to open against. The Bulldogs have a new coach and while that coach is Mike Leach, this is a very difficult circumstance to implement a brand new offense. For years, we’ve seen a run-based offense in Starkville. Now they are switching to the “Air Raid.” MSU had ZERO spring practices so the preparation for 2020 is about as limited as it gets. Remember that Arkansas made a similar switch from a run-heavy to pass-heavy offense in 2018. They haven’t won an SEC game since! LSU is 18-2 SU vs. Miss State in the 2000’s and has won 13 of the past 14 here in Baton Rouge. The lone home loss occurred in 2014. Even worse is the fact the Bulldogs have failed to cover their last six times as a road underdog. LSU is on a 16-7 ATS run in SEC games. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-26-20 | Texas v. Texas Tech +18.5 | Top | 63-56 | Win | 100 | 93 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEX TECH #8 Texas is likely feeling pretty good about itself heading into their Big 12 opener. Two weeks ago, the Longhorns opened the season with a 59-3 thrashing of UTEP where the majority of their starters were only on the field for 30 snaps. Here, they face a Texas Tech squad that had a much more difficult time in its opener. The Red Raiders allowed 600+ yards and had to survive a late 2-point try to beat Houston Baptist, a FCS school, 35-33. Now more than a dozen Red Raiders missed that game due to COVID. But just as Tech thought they were near full strength, their starting RB Thompson was arrested! Still though, they’ve got Alan Bowman, who threw for 400+ yards in the opener. This is a lot of points they’re getting in Lubbock and with the exception of last year (when Bowman didn’t suit up), this in-state rivalry has produced mostly close games. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. Furthermore, Texas is just 4-4 straight up in its last eight road games with none of the wins coming by greater than 11 points. Texas Tech is 7-1 ATS following a bye week. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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09-25-20 | Heat +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI With a win tonight, Miami moves on to the NBA Finals and a likely matchup with former teammate LeBron James and the Lakers. Don’t worry about the fact that the Heat are underdogs tonight. People have been underrating this team ever since the season restarted. They’ve gone 11-2 SU in the playoffs with one of those losses coming in overtime. They are also 11-2 ATS. After falling behind early in each of the first three games, Miami largely controlled Game 4 wire to wire. They did so despite shooting just 42.9% and 10 of 37 from three-point range. They’ll shoot better tonight, even as they are unlikely to get 37 points against from rookie Tyler Herro. That they continue to be the underdog is a little ridiculous and we’ll gladly take the points. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-25-20 | Lightning v. Stars +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 7* on DAL +1.5 (Puck Line) The Stars have dropped two in a row in the Stanley Cup Finals. Each game saw them fall behind early. In Game 2, it was 3-0 at the end of the 1st period. But they did battle back and make that a one-goal loss. Game 3 was more lopsided. It was 5-1 after two periods and that simply is far too large of a hole to climb out of against a team like the Lightning. Dallas continues to get outshot by a large margin, but they are +3 in 3rd period goal differential for the series. The goaltending situation is something to watch due to the fact Game 5 is tomorrow so Dallas could change things up a bit and go with Ben Bishop tonight. Regardless, they have not suffered three consecutive losses since the season was paused back in March. This will be only the third time since the restart that they’ve been off back to back losses. Everyone is likely writing them off at this point, but we’ll say “no worse than a 1-goal loss here” as the Stars are going to give their best effort tonight. Play DALLAS +1.5 AAA |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. UTSA -6.5 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTSA Middle Tennessee is off to a terrible start to the year, losing 42-0 to Army and 47-14 to Troy. We don’t think you can make this line high enough. UTSA is 2-0, having followed up a 51-48 thriller at Texas State with last week’s 24-10 win over Stephen F Austin. Not only has MTSU turned the ball over seven times, they have an unsettled QB situation and the offense is averaging just 212.5 yards/game. They have found themselves in the red zone just two times in two games! UTSA is averaging more than double the yardage of the Blue Raiders, at nearly 500 yards/game and they’ve gone 11 for 11 on red zone opportunities. This is a “makeshift” game that wasn’t even scheduled as of a week ago. UTSA’s originally scheduled opponent (Memphis) had to “pull out” due to COVID concerns. While that makes this a VERY unusual situation to handicap, we think it clearly favors the team in better form. The idea that Middle Tennessee can correct all of its issues in a short week, against an opponent they weren’t supposed to be facing, seems highly unlikely. The Roadrunners are 6-2 ATS their L8 games. Play on UTSA AAA |
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09-24-20 | UAB v. South Alabama +7 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on S ALABAMA This will be the second straight time UAB is playing on a Thursday night. Two weeks ago, they went down to Miami. We advised you to fade the Blazers in that spot, noting they’d beaten only ONE FBS team with a winning record all of last season. While there’s no shame in losing to the now-12th ranked team in the country, UAB was pretty much manhandled in the 31-14 defeat in Coral Gables. Their defense was run over to the tune of 337 yards. Now they travel a much shorter distance (in-state) to face a South Alabama side that has definitely turned some heads so far in 2020. The Jaguars season began with a shocking 32-21 upset of Southern Miss on the road. They were double digit underdogs for that one. Next came a close game with Tulane, which they lost 27-24, but still covered as 11.5-point underdogs. That same Tulane team was up 24-0 on Navy this past Saturday before melting down. USA was ahead the entire game until the final 3 minutes and led 24-6 midway through the third quarter. The Jaguars’ passing game, which has employed two QBs, has gone over 300 yards in both games. UAB just lost one of its two QBs (Tyler Johnston III), meaning redshirt freshman Bryson Lucero has to make his first career start on the road. This would be a really big win for South Alabama, who lost in Birmingham last season, 35-3. UAB is just 1-4 ATS its last five road games while USA has covered five straight times as a home dog. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |