Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Penn State +21

I would still play Penn State +20.5 but your best move is to wait for a +21 if you don't have access to one currently.  This is expected to be a very low-scoring, defensive battle so getting three touchdowns with Penn State is a nice value.

Ohio State is 9-0-1 ATS since its loss to Michigan last season.  With that perfect ATS record comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very tough to live up to moving forward.  It's clear you are paying a 'tax' to back the No. 1 team in the country in Ohio State at this point.

Some bye weeks are better than others.  I think this is a bad time for a bye week for the Buckeyes, who have been rolling.  They went into their bye week 'fat and happy' and I just don't think they feel like they had to make improvements over these two weeks.

I also think Ohio State has benefitted from a pretty soft schedule.  The 14-7 win over Texas doesn't look as good now, and the wins over Minnesota and Wisconsin clearly have to be downgraded.  Their best win was a 24-6 road win at Washington.  Their 34-16 win at Illinois was misleading as they were held to 272 total yards by the Fighting Illini, who actually outgained them in that game and had 5 more first downs.

This lackluster Ohio State offense is the reason they will struggle to cover this big of a number against one of their toughest opponents to date.  I also think the fact that Ohio State plays at the slowest tempo in the country works in our favor here.  The Buckeyes rank 136th in tempo snapping the ball every 31.5 seconds.  That will help limit possessions and give the Buckeyes less of a chance to pull away.

I think the bye week came at the perfect time for Penn State.  The Nittany Lions get two weeks to regroup under an interim head coach.  They were thrown into the fire in their first game without James Franklin and handled themselves well, only losing 25-24 at Iowa as 3-point dogs.  That's an Iowa team that also blew out Wisconsin and Minnesota like Ohio State did with very similar scores.

The bye week will have given freshman QB Ethan Grunkenmeyer the extra time he needs to run this offense.  And player for player, Penn State isn't that much less talented than Ohio State.  The Nittany Lions have the defense that came keep them in this game for four quarters.  They allow 19.4 points per game, 303.7 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.

I just think that we are getting max value here with Penn State at 1-6 ATS on the season and Ohio State 6-0-1 ATS on the season including 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games.  The Nittany Lions have been downgraded too much, while the Buckeyes have been upgraded too much in the power rankings.  Each of the last nine meetings in this series have been decided by 13 points or fewer.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

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Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Liberty -3

The Key: The situation really favors Liberty.  The Flames have had the last two weeks off and will be the fresher, more prepared squad for this home matchup with Delaware.  The Blue Hens have been disappointing going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games losing outright as favorites to Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky, while beating Middle Tennessee by just 3 as 9-point home favorites.  They lost QB Nicholas Minicucci to a concussion in that game, so there's a good chance he won't be back for this game against Liberty.  Minicucci means everything to the Blue Hens.  He has thrown for 2,058 yards and 13 TDs to only 3 INTs and has rushed for 7 TDs as well.  I would like Liberty whether or not they have him, but if he's out this line will be much higher than -3.  Take Liberty.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Old Dominion -17

Louisiana-Monroe is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall as injuries have piled up.  The Warhawks lost by 35 to Northwestern, were upset by 15 by Coastal Carolina, lost by 23 at home to Troy and lost by 28 at Southern Miss.  They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 72.5 points in those four games.  The books are having a hard time adjusting enough for their injuries especially at the QB position and at kicker.  Now they take on a Old Dominion team that has some of the best numbers in the country.  The Monarchs rank 8th averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and 49th giving up 5.2 yards per play on defense.  This despite a tough schedule that has included Indiana, Virginia Tech and James Madison.  They will make easy work of this short-handed ULM squad.  Give me Old Dominion.

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This week in football, we will end up being on the MOST WANTED list for killing sportsbooks. I have my BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR posted for Saturday, with more Saturday winners coming.

Friday’s FREE WINNER: Memphis Tigers.

Game 315.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

No matter how you look at Friday's AAC matchup between the Memphis Tigers and the Rice Owls, you have to have to lean on the visitor here. Following their only defeat of the campaign, the Tigers took down the Bulls of South Florida just six days ago at home, 34-31. Not only does this team win, they cover as well. They have won and covered nine of their last 10 overall games. This does include five of their last six games played on the road. They took down the Rice Owls a season ago at home, 27-20 as the game fell right on the number. The reason why this release didn't make it as a premium play for me is because of the rest of the regular season schedule for Memphis. Put a pin in that, we will come right back around to it. The Tigers are 3-1 in conference play. They are tied with the Bulls, the Green Wave, and the Owls of Temple. Undefeated teams in the division are the Midshipmen and the Green Wave. Well sports fans, two of their final four remaining regular season games are against Tulane and Navy. The Green Wave on deck and this game with the Owls sandwiched between last week’s barn burning, 34-31 victory against South Florida. USF did generate over 564 total yards. They might be just get caught between last week's tiring matchup, and next week’s big game opponent. However, this is a smart team, a well-coached team, a deep and talented team also. They face a division opponent that is 4-4 overall, but just 1-3 in AAC play. The Owls can run the ball… boy can they run the ball. They rank 13th in the nation, averaging over 226.0 rushing yards per game. They eat up clock, and make very few mistakes. They pose very little threat in the air, rank 134th in passing yards. The Tigers are pretty good against the rush, and overall allow just 19.9 points-per game, and have snagged 11 takeaways. Because they are a well-coached squad, I'm sure there will be prepared for this matchup. If this line would have been a little bit lower, I might've released it as a premium play. I still like it. Take the Tigers. Thank you.

Our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green to defeat the Navy Midshipmen on Saturday at 12:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Navy has won 10 straight games (all seven this season) and are no question hoping to stay perfect through this week.

The Midshipmen can't stop the pass though and that's what North Texas does best.

They have been poor to bet on recently too, unable to cover against the spread in five of their L6 games.

You could make a point that North Texas can't stop the run -- which is what Navy does -- and that's true.

But, the Mean Green's offense has been the best in College this season from a scoring perspective, putting up 46.1 points a game -- nearly seven more than Navy.

We're on the Mean Green on Saturday.

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