1* NBA - Free Pick on Pacers/Nuggets OVER 212½ 

Really like the value here with the OVER 212.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup that has the Nuggets hosting the Pacers. I believe we are getting a great price on the total due to the fact that Denver will be down 3 of their better players in Milsap, Harris and Murray. 

Thing is they didn't have either of those 3 in their last game at Golden State and they still managed to put up 113 points in regulation (did so only scoring 19 points in the 1st quarter). Denver is a deep team and still have two dynamic scorers in Jokic and Barton, plus Michael Porter Jr has really emerged of late. 

While I'm not all that concerned with the offense producing at home, I do think Denver's defense is in for a tough task here against a Pacers team that is finally starting to get healthy. Nuggets gave up 20 3-pointers to the Warriors in their last game and have allowed 100 or more points in 17 of their last 18 overall. 

OVER is also 8-2 in the Pacers last 10 games vs a team with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 on the road and 4-0 in their last 4 as a dog. OVER is also 10-2 in the Nuggets last 12 vs a team with a winning record and 20-8-1 in their last 29 after allowing 125 or more in their last game. Take the OVER! 

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