1 Unit FREE PLAY on San Francisco 49ers -6.5
The San Francisco 49ers suffered an upset loss at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals last week. They had some injuries at receiver and along the offensive line that caused their offense some problems. But they get a lot healthier this week and should be much more effective against a lesser opponent in the New York Jets. The Cardinals are a much better team than the Jets, and the 49ers were 7-point favorites over the Cardinals and only 6.5-point favorites over the Jets. The Jets lost 17-27 at Buffalo last week in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Bills were up 21-0 before they took their foot off the gas. They missed a couple field goals and left some points on the board. The Bills had 404-254 yard and 31-15 first down edges over the Jets. The 49ers are every bit as good as the Bills, if not better. Give me the 49ers.
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1* Free Pick on Steelers -6 -110
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Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Indianapolis Colts -3
The Minnesota Vikings gave up 43 points and 522 total yards to the Green Bay Packers last week. This isn’t the same old defense that Mike Zimmer has had in his time in Minnesota. I know it’s only one game, but I believe this is the worst defense he’s ever had.
For starters, the Vikings lost three starters in the secondary from last year. They are now starting three players who are all 23 years old or younger. They lost their top pass rusher Everson Griffin to Dallas. Their next-best pass rusher in Danielle Hunter is hurt. And although they got Yannick Ngakoue from the Jaguars, he is a non-factor early until he gets into playing shape.
Now the Vikings have to go up against a Colts offense that just put up 445 total yards on the Jaguars last week. That was easily the most misleading final of the week. The Colts outgained the Jaguars by 204 yards and should have won. But they missed a 30-yard field goal and were stopped on downs at the goal line, two key plays as to why they did not win.
Teams who were 5.5-point favorites or more in Week 1 that lost outright are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 tries in Week 2. This trend is great for betting on teams who were supposed to be good coming into the season, laid an egg in Week 1, and now they’re likely to bounce back in Week 2. I expect the Colts to do just that against the Vikings. Bet the Colts Sunday.
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Dave’s Sunday Free Play:
1* on Buffalo Bills -5.5
The Key: The Buffalo Bills were dominant in their 27-17 win over the New York Jets last week. They had a couple missed field goals and a couple turnovers that turned a 21-0 blowout into a closer game than it really was. They outgained the Jets by 150 yards and had 16 more first downs. The Miami Dolphins lost 11-21 to the Patriots last week. They had just 269 yards and 3 turnovers in the loss. They also gave up 217 rushing yards to the Patriots. That’s bad news for them this week because the Bills are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL with Josh Allen’s dual-threat ability. The Bills have owned the Dolphins in winning the last 3 matchups by 25, 10 and 17 points. They should win by a TD or more Sunday. Take Buffalo.
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Panthers vs. Buccaneers Free Pick September 20, 2020
The Carolina Panthers took a 34-30 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1. They came just short of covering the spread, but I think they'll cover a much larger number here against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2.
The Bucs are coming off a 34-23 season-opening loss at New Orleans. New QB Tom Brady did not have a particularly good game, finishing with 239 yards (he was allowed to polish the numbers in garbage time) and two TD passes vs. two INTs. With no preseason games, it might take a couple of games for 43-year old Brady to gel with his new teammates and get used to how coach Bruce Arians wants to run the offense.
As for the Panthers offense, you pretty much know what Teddy Bridgewater brings to the table and he has an amazing ATS record as a starter. Bridgewater had a solid 269 yards and a TD on 22-of-34 passing against the Raiders while RB Christan McCaffrey ran for 97 yards and two scores.
Free pick on Carolina Panthers.
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Play - NY Jets (Game 270).
Edges - Jets: 12-3 ATS as home dogs of 3-plus points; and head coach Adam Gase 11-7 SU and 11-6-1 ATS as a home dog … 49ers: 1-13-1 ATS as a favorite versus a losing team … We recommend a 1* play on the Jets. Thank you and good luck as always.
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I just can't believe this line. The Panthers are a home dog to the Raiders and failed to cover, but they did play a solid game. They have 6.1 yards per play scored 30 points and lost. Tough to hang your head on that. The defense might be a question but Oakland is much improved on offense as well. Clearly there is some timing and issues going on with Tampa. I dont understand going from a 3.5 point dog to near a double digit favorite. Bridgewater is a very solid QB who isn't getting much respect here.
Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Denver at 1 pm et on Sunday.
This has all the makings of a blowout as the Broncos travel across the country to face the Steelers in early Sunday afternoon action. Denver continues to deal with a number of key injuries, with RB Philip Lindsay the most recent to go down, leaving fumble-prone Melvin Gordon as its only real option out of the backfield. Meanwhile, QB Drew Lock should be under duress all afternoon long against the Steelers vaunted pass rush, which absolutely dominated another relatively inexperienced QB in Daniel Jones on Monday night. While I do still have respect for the Broncos defense, even without a number of key cogs that have starred in this unit in recent years, I believe it will have its hands full with a Steelers offense that boasts a low of upside with a healthy Big Ben under center. Look for WR JuJu Smith-Schuster in particularly to have a field day against the Broncos secondary. Take Pittsburgh (8*).
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