On Sunday, the Broncos (6-5, 2-2 AWAY, 4-6-1 ATS) are set to face off against the Texans (6-5, 4-2 HOME, 5-6 ATS) at NRG Stadium, with the game scheduled to kick off at 1pm ET CBS for TV. The Texans were initially favored by -3 points, and the Over/Under (O/U) for the game was set at 46.5 points. Stats: Denver allowing 21PPG (14th), Houston 25PPG (29th), Scoring: DVR 22PPG (13th), HOU 23PPG (10th). Both are bottom 20 in the Red Zone, so that's a WIN. Both like to run the ball (Top 18 in attempts), and both Denver is exceptional running. 115YPG (12th). Last game out the Broncos kept their hot streak alive with a 29-12 W over the Browns at home. Call me crazy but I'm actually buying what Russell is selling. Maybe the Broncs have the run game to thank. The Perine/Williams combo seems like a match made in heaven as a 1-2 punch, the more they run, the more the clock moves, which I'm a fan of, when I have a play on an UNDER posted. I also haven't been overly impressed with the Broncos RUN D, I mean they're serviceable, but are you starting them in FFL? I'm not, so, having said that, I think Singletary can have himself a game this week too. Houston will use the run to set up play-action, we know that. The DVR pass rush is all world currently. These guys are really getting home, but the RUN-D isn't all world yet. The Texans are one of the surprise teams this year, but I'm not convinced yet. They were good, but not good enough to take out the Jags on Sunday and lost 24-21. The Broncos will have a gameplan ready for Dell and Stroud, there's plenty of film on these guys now, and I don't foresee too many surprises. Past matchups: 9/18/22 Denver 16, Houston 9. Since 2007 8 matchups, Denver leads 5-3. Some trends, UNDER is 4-0 in Broncs L4 following an ATS win. We've seen the TOTAL hit the UNDER in 5 of Denver's L6, and all of their recent five matchups vs. AFC South teams. Last one, UNDER is 8-1 L9 for the Broncs vs. a team with a winning home record. For Houston the UNDER has hit in 6 of their L8, plus in 4 of 5 vs. the Broncos recently. In Houston's L5 games vs. Denver at home the UNDER has hit 4x. You know what to do! Hop on! Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Houston Texans -3
The Houston Texans have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games with each of their last three ATS losses coming by a combined 3 points. They have had some pretty poor luck on the covering front, otherwise they would be closer to 4-1 ATS in their last five games. I think they are undervalued this week as only 3-point home favorites over the Broncos as a result.
They missed two FG's last week including the potential game-tying FG off the crossbar in their 24-21 home loss to the Jaguars as 1-point dogs. They had three turnovers inside the Arizona 25-yard line in their 21-16 win as 5.5-point favorites the week prior. They took a knee instead of kicking the XP to seal the game in a 39-37 win over the Bucs as 2.5-point favorites.
CJ Stroud and this Houston offense are humming right now. The Texans average 375 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season behind a passing game that averages 276 passing yards per game. Stroud is completing 63.7% of his passes for 3,266 yards with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt. He is loaded with receivers on the outside, and both Tank Dell and Noah Brown returned to practice on Thursday. They haven't had each of their top four receivers available since Week 1, making what Stroud has done even more impressive. They should have all four this week.
While it's a good time to 'buy low' on the Texans after failing to cover four of their last five, it's a good time to 'sell high' on the Denver Broncos after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four of those wins coming at home. Turnover luck and home-field advantage is the sole reason for Denver's recent run. They are +13 in turnovers during this five-game winning streak, which is unsustainable.
Three of Denver's five wins have come by a combined 5 points during their winning streak. They have had 44 points off turnovers during this streak. They have forced 14 fumbles this season and recovered 12, which is also unsustainable. I don't think this Denver defense is as good as it is getting credit for, and the offense has still been held to just 23.0 points per game during this winning streak despite all those points off turnovers. Russell Wilson cannot keep up with CJ Stroud and company in this one.
Houston has the much better season-long stats. The Texans average 6.0 yards per play and allow 5.6 yards per play while outgaining opponents by 27 yards per game and 0.4 per play. Denver averages 5.5 yards per play and allows 6.3 yards per play while getting outgained by 87 yards per game and 0.8 per play. Bet the Texans Sunday.
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Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Detroit Lions -4
The Key: The Detroit Lions have the rest edge after playing last Thursday on Thanksgiving. They also come into this game pissed off after giving the game away to the Green Bay Packers with 3 costly turnovers. Now they take on a reeling Saints team that could be very short-handed on Sunday after suffering more injuries in their 24-15 loss to the Falcons last week. They could be without their top 3 receivers on Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave. Both Shaheed (thigh) and Olave (concussion) left the Atlanta game and are doubtful to play this week. They were already without their best CB in Marshon Lattimore, and now they could be without their best defensive lineman in Cameron Jordan, who suffered an ankle injury against Atlanta and hasn't practiced yet this week. The Saints aren't going to be able to score enough points in this one to keep up with Detroit's high-powered offense. They were held to 5 FG against a bad Atlanta defense last week, and this suspect Detroit defense will get enough stops as well. The Lions are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after winning 2 of their last 3 games. New Orleans is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 home games. Take Detroit.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Carolina Panthers +5.5
The Carolina Panthers fired head coach Frank Reich and promoted their special teams coordinator. By all accounts players love him and liked the offense much better when it was run by Thomas Brown, who is taking back over the play calling. I think we get a one game bump from the Panthers here and they put forth one of their best efforts of the season for their interim head coach. We saw the Panthers play well down the stretch last season once Matt Rhule was fired and Steve Wilks took over. The Bucs shouldn't be favored by 5.5 over anyone in the NFL. Baker Mayfield is banged up, and the defense could be missing several key players in LB Lavonte David, LB Devin White and CB Jamel Dean who all missed practice on Thursday. This Tampa Bay defense has been shredded in recent weeks allowing 39 points and 496 yards to Houston, 27 points and 420 yards to the 49ers and 27 points and 394 yards to the Colts. The Bucs have failed to score more than 20 points in six of their last seven games overall, and it's going to be tough for them to cover if they can't score. The Panthers actually have a pretty good defense that has allowed 17 or fewer offensive points in four of their last five games. Give me the Panthers.
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