Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-16 | Jazz v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Opening Night No Limit Top Play on Blazers - The Jazz are getting a ton of love from oddsmakers going into this season and I believe we are seeing some of that hype reflected in this line, as it's going to be hard for Utah to go into Portland and get a win given the injuries they are dealing with. Utah is minus their best player in Gordon Hayward and top reserve from last year in Alec Burks. They could also be missing arguably their next play player in Derrick Favors, who is questionable with a knee injury. They also have Rodney Hood playing at less than 100%. Another big factor here is how much better these two teams play at home compared to on the road. Last season the Blazers went 28-13 at home and just 16-25 on the road. It was a similar story for the Jazz, who were 24-17 at home compared to 16-25 on the road. I know the preseason doesn't mean a lot, but it is worth noting that these two teams played twice and the Blazers won both games. Portland's starters were the more impressive unit when on the floor and MVP darkhorse Damian Lillard did as he pleased in both games, scoring 43 points on 17-28 shooting in 51 minutes. I just don't think Utah is going to be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Take Portland! |
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06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 93-89 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors - As bad as the Warriors have looked in the last two games, my money is on Golden State to take care of business at home in Game 7 tonight. The home team has gone an impressive 15-3 in Game 7 of the NBA Finals and lets not forget there has never been a team that has come back from a 3-1 deficit. The last time a road team won Game 7 was 1978 and the last time the Warriors lost 3 straight was back in November of 2013. Playing at home will be the difference and I look for Curry and Thompson to be the difference in this one. There's no denying that James is playing out of his mind right now, but he's going to need some help. Cleveland needed every bit of Irving's 41 points in Game 5 and that was with the Warriors playing without Green. Cavaliers are a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points, while the Warriors are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 when revenging a road loss. Take Golden State! |
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06-16-16 | Warriors +2 v. Cavs | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors + It took the greatest NBA Finals performance from 2 teammates to extend this series, as LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both put up 41 points. The two simply couldn't miss, as they combined to shoot 33 of 54 (61%) from the field. James had a rare game where he caught fire from the outside, something I'm confident won't carry over. The thing you have to keep in mind, is those performances game with Draymond Green sidelined, arguably the Warriors most important player, especially when it comes to their versatility on the defense end. He's also a big part of the offense. I believe his return is going to be the difference. Let's not forget the Cavaliers two wins so far in the series have come with the Warriors not showing up to play in Game 3 and with Green sidelined. The Warriors don't lose often and have showed a great resilience off a bad game the previous time out. They closed out the Cavaliers in Cleveland last year and I fully expect them to do the same tonight. Take Golden State! |
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06-13-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors - Even with Green sideline for Game 5, I'm still riding the Warriors to not only clinch the series, but to do by more than the number listed here. In fact, I think we are actually getting some value because of Green's absence, as the line has dropped by 2.5 points since it opened at 8. The Warriors are going to rally around the fact that Green was suspended, as many feel it was James who instigated the Flagrant foul. Green's absence will be felt on the defensive end, but the Warriors are a deep team and are going to have no problem scoring offensively. Cleveland on the other hand, is not the same team on the road. They aren't near as efficient offensively and don't play with the same intensity on the defensive end. That's evident by the two blowouts in games 1 & 2, where the Cavaliers shot just 38.1% and 35.4% from the field, while letting the Warriors connect on 49.4% and 54.3%. Take Golden State! |
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06-10-16 | Warriors +2 v. Cavs | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors + As expected Golden State came out flat in Game 3 and while I didn't see a 30-point loss coming, the margin really doesn't matter. The Warriors simply didn't come to play and their star players didn't come close to performing to their potential. It's amazing what one loss can do, as the public is now on the Cavaliers in Game 4 after wanting nothing to do with them after those two losses in Golden State. As good as Cleveland has played at home, they should not be favorite against the Warriors in this spot. We are going to see a pissed off and highly motivated Golden State team take the floor tonight and I just don't believe the Cavs have the offensive firepower to hang with the Warriors when they are at their best. I expect this to be a close game throughout, but I look for Golden State to pull away in the 4th quarter. Keep in mind that the Warriors have struggled in Game 3's in every round. They lost Game 3 last year at Cleveland and came back and won Game 4 by 21 points. Warriors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when revenging a loss and 22-8 in their last 30 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. Take Golden State! |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +1.5 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavs + I was on the wrong end with the Cavaliers in both Game 1 and Game 2, but I'm sticking with Cleveland as the series shifts to their house for Game 3. The Cavaliers aren't going to win this series, but they are a better team than what we have seen so far. James isn't going to let this team fall behind 0-3 in the series and the Warriors are going to struggle to match the intensity that Cleveland is going to bring to this game. Offense has been the big problem for the Cavaliers so far in the series. The role players have not contributed near the level needed. Golden State on the other hand has got tremendous play from their role players. Role players always seem to play better at home and I believe that's going to be the difference in Game 3. Cavs are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100+ points in 2 straight games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at home. Take Cleveland! |
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06-05-16 | Cavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs + Cleveland is worth a look here in Game 2. Despite losing Game 1 by 15-points, there were a lot of positives to take away for the Cavaliers. Cleveland didn't shoot the ball well at all. They were 38% from the field overall and just 33% from long distance. They also got nothing from their role players, as James, Love and Irving combined for 66 of the teams 89 points. Defensively the Cavaliers allowed the Warriors to shoot 49.4% from the field, but were able to hold both Thompson and Curry in check, as the two combined for just 20 points on 8 of 27 shooting. The role players for Golden State all played well. Cleveland is clearly going to make the others beat them and I have a hard time seeing those not named Curry and Thompson combining for 84 points in consecutive games. As bad as things went for Cleveland, they actually had a lead in the 3rd quarter. James isn't going to let his team lose by double-digits in back-to-back games. Keep in mind the Warriors won Game 1 last year, only to lose Game 2 as a 7.5-point favorite. Take Cleveland! |
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06-02-16 | Cavs +6 v. Warriors | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs + Golden State needed a lot of breaks to go their way to escape the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder. I don't know that they are going to be so fortunate in the NBA Finals against the Cavaliers. Either way, I have to give the edge to Cleveland in Game 1. The Cavaliers had the much easier path to the Finals and are the more rested team. Cleveland also has serious revenge on their minds after losing to Golden State in last year's Finals. At the same time, it's going to be tough for Golden State to match the intensity of the Cavaliers after that grueling 7-game series against the Thunder. This year LeBron has a legit supporting cast around him. Unlike OKC, which turned to hero ball with Durant and Westbrook, Cleveland is going to share the basketball and make the Warriors defense work on every possession. They are also going to be able to close out games when they have the lead in the 4th quarter. I just feel this is too many points for Cleveland to be catching in a game they have a great shot at winning. Take the Cavaliers! |
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05-30-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors - The Warriors have all the momentum and I look for them come out and lay it on the Thunder in Game 7 at home. Deep down OKC knows they blew their chance at winning this series with the late 4th quarter collapse at home in Game 6. The home team has such an advantage in Game 7 and even more so when you factor how good the Warriors are at Oracle. Golden State has made a great adjustment that couple of games, going big to keep the Thunder from dominating the board. They are also doing a great job defensively on Durant and Westbrook. The two are scoring a decent amount, but are taking a lot of shots. The pressure of Game 7 is only going to make these two force up more shots, as they just don't trust their role players enough in big situations. Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Take Golden State! |
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05-28-16 | Warriors +2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors + I know the Thunder owned Golden State at home in both Game 3 and 4, but like we saw in the Cavs/Raptors series, that doesn't mean OKC is going to dominate Game 6 at home. The Warriors answered with their backs against the wall in Game 5 on their home floor and I look for them to carry over that momentum to Game 6. All of the pressure is on the Thunder to win this game. They know if they lose this one, their chances of winning Game 7 on the road are slim. At the same time, the Warriors are going to be better prepared mentally this time around for the atmosphere they will face in OKC. I still think the Thunder are too dependent on Westbrook and Durant and when things get tough like they will be in Game 6, they tend to worry more about each other and the rest of the players get left out of the offense. It's also worth noting we are getting some value here with this line. Golden State was favored in both of the previous road games in this series and are now catching 2.5-points. This team won at OKC earlier this season and will do so again tonight. Take the Warriors! |
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05-27-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavaliers - As expected, the Cleveland returned home and laid an absolute beating on the Raptors in Game 5. While it won't be as easy on the road in Game 6, I'm confident the Cavaliers will go into Toronto and finish off the series. Cleveland didn't give the Raptors the respect they deserved in Games 3 and 4 in Toronto, but they aren't going to make that same mistake here. All the confidence that the Raptors got in those two wins is completely gone after what happened in Game 5. The Cavaliers are simply the better team and as long as they come out with that killer instinct, Toronto has no chance of winning or keeping it close. Raptors are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game and home dogs revenging a loss where they scored 85 or less against an opponent off a home win by 20+ points are just 46-83 ATS since 1996. Take Cleveland! |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors - It's hard to believe that the series is headed back to Golden State with the Warriors trailing 3-1, but I'm not about to give up on the Warriors just yet. After losing Game 1 at home and facing a must win in Game 2, Golden State laid a 27-point beating on the Thunder. With their season on the line, and the Thunder knowing they get Game 6 at home, I look for the Warriors to dominate Game 5. It's just going to be near impossible for OKC to come out and match the intensity of Golden State in this one. The Warriors should also be able to get their offense going at home. Warriors are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 when revenging an upset loss as favorite and 31-15 ATS in their last 46 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Golden State! |
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05-24-16 | Warriors -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors - As good as OKC looked in Game 3 at home, I think the value here is with the Warriors as a small road favorite in Game 4. Down 1-2, Golden State really can't afford to lose this game and I believe this team will come out looking more like the team that dominated Game 2. The Warriors simply didn't bring the defensive intensity in Game 3 and were just unable to recover from the haymaker the Thunder landed in the 2nd quarter. Oklahoma City also caught fire on the offensive end, shooting 50% from the field. I look for Golden State's defense to be the difference in this one, as Curry, Thompson and Green will deliver enough offensively to secure the win. Thunder are just 9-18 in their last 27 after scoring 60+ points at the half of their previous game, while the Warriors are 19-6 in their last 25 off loss by 10 or more as a road favorite. Take Golden State! |
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05-23-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Cavs - The Cavaliers got embarrassed in Game 3 at Toronto, losing 84-99 for their first loss of the postseason. Not a huge surprise, as Cleveland was due for a letdown and that was a must-win game for the Raptors. Unfortunately for Toronto I don't see that carrying over to Game 4. Cleveland is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after how they played on Saturday and should have no problem winning here by more than 6-points. The Cavaliers won the first two games in the series by a combined 50 points. There's simply too big a gap between these two teams, as the Cavs are clearly the best the East has to offer. Raptors are just 1-6 in their last 7 after a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a cover. Cleveland is 4-1 in their last 5 after failing to cover their previous game and have not failed to cover in back-to-back games in the playoffs this season. Take the Cavaliers! |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder + Golden State bounced back in a big way to take Game 2 after blowing a double-digit halftime lead in Game 1. The public is going to be on the Warriors at this line, but I think the value here is with OKC. The Thunder are a dominant home team and have proven they can not only hang with Golden State but are capable of beating them. I look for an all out effort here from the Thunder in Game 3, as they know they have to keep home court if they want any chance of winning this series. Oklahoma City is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when revenging a loss and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by more than 10 points. Thunder are also 31-10-2 ATS in their last 43 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take OKC! |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +6.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors + It's been about as bad as it could be for Toronto in the first 2 games of this series. While everyone knows this series is all but a formality, I still expect the Raptors to come out and play extremely hard on their home court. I believe this is the one game that Toronto has a better than normal chance of winning. Cleveland is on cruise control and do not feel threatened at all by this team. If there's a game the Cavaliers are going to let their guard down, it's this one. The good news is we don't need Toronto to win the game to cash our ticket. The Raptors just have to keep it respectable, something they are definitely capable of. They have hung with Cleveland early in both games, but Lowry being a non-factor has been too much to overcome. I look for him to at least show up and provide something in Game 3. Let's also not forget the oddsmakers know the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with Toronto right now. I'm confident they set this line where they like the Raptors chances of covering. Keep in mind after the Cavs won both games at home against the Hawks by double-digits, they were only a 2-point favorite in game 3. Cleveland is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Toronto! |
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05-19-16 | Raptors +12 v. Cavs | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Raptors + Toronto was no match for Cleveland in Game 1 and I was all over the Cavaliers laying the big number in the series opener. Now I'm banking not he Raptors to bounce back in a big way and make a game of it in Game 2. Toronto basically took Game 1 off, as they just didn't have the energy to keep up with the Cavaliers. The Raptors just got done playing a grueling 7-game series agains the Heat, while Cleveland hadn't played in 8 days. Toronto simply can't be as bad offensively as they were in Game 1. The Raptors had just 3 players finish in double-figures with DeRozan leading the way with just 18. Lowry was a complete non factor, scoring just 8 points on 4 of 14 shooting, while Carrol only had 2 points. I expect this trio to have a much better showing in Game 2. I also don't expect the Cavaliers to repeat their 55% effort from the field in Game 1. As well as Cleveland has been playing, that's only the second time this postseason they have shot 50% or better. It's also the first time Toronto has allowed an opponent to eclipse that mark in the playoffs. Cleveland has now covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games and are simply overvalued because of it. Keep in mind the Cavaliers are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when they come into a game having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Toronto is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and even with the loss in Game 1 are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the Raptors! |
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05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 222 | Top | 91-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder/Warriors OVER Game 1 saw a combined score of just 210 points, easily finishing UNDER the total posted of 225. The books have adjusted for Game 2 by dropping the total down 3-points and I think it's a big mistake. Neither team shot the ball well, as both finished under 45% from the field. Keep in mind in the two previous meetings both teams shot at least 47%. Curry and Thompson combined for 51 points, but Curry was just 9 for 22 from the field. A mark he can easily better in Game 2. As for the Thunder, Westbrook had a monster 3rd quarter, but was just 7 for 21. Durant was even worse at 10 for 30. I'm also confident we aren't going to see another 14 point quarter from the Warriors like we did in the final period of Game 1. Golden State had scored at least 116 points in all 3 of the regular season meetings and would have eclipsed that if it wasn't for the awful showing in the 4th. OVER is 11-2 in the Thunder's last 13 after covering at least 5 of their last 7 and 13-4 in their last 17 after winning 8 or more of their previous 10. Take the OVER! |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors - This might seem like a lot of points for the Warriors to be laying against a Thunder team that just closed out their series against the Spurs with 3 straight wins, including a 113-99 blowout win to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals. At the same time, Golden State didn't dominate the Blazers like many expected, especially once Curry returned to action, as they trailed by double-digits in the majority of the games at the half. The key thing to keep in mind is that Portland had the ability to play small and matchup with the Warriors, something I don't think Oklahoma City is capable of doing. At the same time, the Thunder really took advantage of a aging Spurs team, who really struggled when forced to play on more than 1-day of rest. The Thunder aren't going to be able to use that up-tempo in their favor here against the Warriors, who thrive in a fast pace. Let's also not forget Golden State swept the season series 3-0 and won both home games in the season series by at least 8 points. Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-4 in their last 15 ATS when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Golden State! |
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05-15-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors - I've cashed in on each of the last 4 games in this series after successfully backing Miami in Game 6 at home. This time it's the Raptors who are showing the value, as they have the big advantage playing Game 7 at home. If you have followed the NBA Playoffs over the years, you know that the home team has dominated Game 7. I was actually surprised that the Heat were able to win Game 6 with DeRozan and Lowry combining for 59 points. The exact same amount the duo put up in Toronto's 99-91 win at home in Game 5. The good news is, these two are finally starting to play up to their potential and now the Raptors should get more out of their role players on their home floor. Toronto should also perform better on the defense side of the floor, as they will feed off the energy of the home crowd. The Heat are just 3-13 ATS in their last 19 when they come into a game having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. Take Toronto! |
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05-13-16 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - I have successfully cashed each of my last 3 picks in this series and I'm confident we will make it 4 for 4 with the Heat tonight. Miami nearly erased an early double-digit deficit in Game 5 and I just don't trust the Raptors in a close out situation. It's a spot that Toronto has not fared well in the past. On the other side, Miami has one of the best closers in the game in Wade and will be playing at home in a do or die situation. The other big positive here is the Raptors finally got a solid performance from both Lowry and DeRozan in the same game. The two combined for 59 points on 20 of 47 shooting. That almost wasn't enough on their home floor and I'm willing to bet the duo doesn't play as well on the road in Game 5. The Heat are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 after playing their previous game as a dog, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 at home and the Raptors are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Miami! |
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05-11-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - I really like the Raptors here in Game 5 at home. Toronto shot just 39.3% from the field in Game 4 and took Miami to overtime. Miami on the other hand shot 45% and needed 30 points from Wade to secure the win. I know the Raptors didn't take full advantage of Whiteside's absence in Game 4, but I look for that to change at home. The fact that Lowry and DeRozan were a combined 6 of 28 from the field on the road and the Raptors still almost won the game, tells me that Toronto is the far better team when these two play close to their potential. The loss of Whiteside makes it hard for Miami to get easy looks inside and they aren't a great 3-point shooting team, forcing them to take a lot of contested 2-point jump shots. His absence will be felt even more on the road, as I look for Toronto to win here comfortably. Take the Raptors! |
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05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -7 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs - This might seem like a big number to lay on the Spurs in Game 5, but my money is on San Antonio not only winning the game but doing so in impressive fashion. The Spurs didn't play great in either game at OKC, but still managed to get a split. They now return home, where they have lost twice all season. I know one of those was against the Thunder in Game 2, but I believe that makes even less likely they lose in Game 5. You also have to keep in mind that the Thunder are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. This is also a bit of a letdown spot for OKC, as they were basically in a do or die situation needing to win Game 4 to keep any hope of winning the series alive. Spurs are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 when tied in a playoff series and 19-9 in their last 28 when revenging a home loss. We also see that home teams favored by 7 or more with a series tied 2-2 are 11-4 ATS dating back to 2015. Take San Antonio! |
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05-09-16 | Raptors v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - Miami is showing great value here at home in a must-win Game 4. The Heat opened the series with a win in Toronto, but lost in overtime in Game 2 and then dropped the first matchup on their home floor in Game 3. The big news going into Game 4 is both teams will be without their big men inside. Toronto's Jonas Valanciunas is done for the series and Miami's Hassan Whiteside is doubtful with a knee injury. I believe Miami is more equipped to play well without their big men, especially on their home floor. Valanciunas has arguably been the Raptors most consistent player in the postseason and he's certainly played a big role in Toronto's 2-1 series lead. The Raptors were +41 with him on the floor in the first 3 games and -39 when he was on the bench. Motivation is also heavily in Miami's favor here. The Heat absolutely have to win this game, while the Raptors are poised for a letdown after regaining home court. I see a very similar scenario to Game 4 in Toronto's opening series against the Pacers. After losing Game 1 at home, the Raptors won both Game 2 and Game 3 before getting embarrassed by 17 in Game 4 at Indiana. Take Toronto! |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 198.5 | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Thunder UNDER I really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Spurs and Thunder. Both teams are going to come out and lay everything on the line to bring home a victory. San Antonio understands what going up 3-1 means and OKC knows they have to win here and tie it up at 2-2 if they want any chance of advancing to the next round. Each of the last two games in the series have finished below the mark set for this matchup and I believe we are going to see the lowest scoring game of the series tonight. Greg Popovic has now had 3 games to get a feel for what OKC wants to do offensively and I look for the Spurs to make life miserable for the Thunder offensively. At the same time, OKC is more than capable of keeping the Spurs offense in check, which they have shown the last 2 games, holding San Antonio under 43% shooting from the field. UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the Thunder's last 8 home games when playing only their 4th game in 10 days and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 14-2 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 5-1 in their last 6 off a cover. It's also worth noting the UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings overall between these two teams in OKC. Take the UNDER! |
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05-07-16 | Raptors +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors + *Analysis Will Be Posted Shortly* |
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05-06-16 | Spurs -2 v. Thunder | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs - My money is one the Spurs as a small road favorite in Game 3. San Antonio shockingly lost Game 2 at home after embarrassing the Thunder by 32 points in Game 1. Winning on the road at OKC is no easy task for most teams, but I'm confident the Spurs will rebound with one of their best performances after how poorly they played in Game 2. Keep in mind that the Thunder shot 48% from the field, while the Spurs connected on just 42.6% of their attempts and San Antonio still nearly won the game. The Spurs missed a lot of easy shots around the basket early in that game and that's simply not going to happen again. At the same time, the Thunder rely too much on Durant and Westbrook. If either of those two have an off game, this one will get ugly in a hurry. The two combined for 57 in Game 2 and still almost lost. The Spurs are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 when tied in a playoff series, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 3 points or less and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 o more points. Take San Antonio! |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Month on Raptors - Just like they did in their opening series against the Pacers, I look for Toronto to bounce back from a Game 1 loss at home with a convincing win in Game 2. The Raptors lost 90-100 in Game 1 against Indiana, only to respond with a 98-87 win in Game 2. Toronto has not lost consecutive games in the postseason to this point and I don't expect that to change. This is also a big letdown game for Miami. The Heat pulled off a overtime win in Game 1, getting the split in Toronto that they desperately wanted. Prior to that they laid it all on the line in a Game 7 against the Hornets. We have seen the Heat lay a couple eggs on the road against Charlotte and I'm expecting far from their best effort tonight. Miami is just 10-21 ATS in their last 31 after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 11-24 in their last 35 off a road win. The Heat are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Take Toronto! |
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05-04-16 | Hawks +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks + The Hawks are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Cavaliers in Game 2 of this Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup. Atlanta fell behind big early in Game 1, but were able to rally to take the lead in the 4th quarter before Cleveland pulled away for a 11-point win. I believe the Hawks figured something out in the 2nd half and will be able to carry that over to Game 2 tonight. We also can count on a max effort here from Atlanta, as they try to avoid going down 0-2 in the series. Cleveland is due for a letdown in the postseason, as they have now won 5 straight after sweeping the Pistons. Hawks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 when revenging 2 straight losses where they allowed 100+ points, while the Cavaliers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after a win by 10+ points and 10-19 ATS in their last 29 after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take Atlanta! |
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05-03-16 | Blazers +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Blazers + I like the value we are getting with Portland as a double-digit road dog against the Warriors in Game 2. The Blazers failed to cover as a 9.5-point dog in Game 1, losing by 12. Portland looked shell-shocked in the 1st quarter of that game, getting outscored by 20 points (17-37). After the opening quarter the Blazers actually outscored the Warriors by 8 points. With their backs against the wall and Golden State potentially poised for a letdown with the potential return of Steph Curry for Game 3, I look for Portland to give the Warriors all they can handle in Game 2. While it's unlikely the Blazers can pull off the upset, it's not out of the question. Just look at the turnaround the Thunder had in Game 2 at San Antonio after getting embarrassed by 30-points in Game 1. Portland is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss by more than 10 points and we have a big time system in play favoring a fade of the Warriors in this spot. Home favorites who have won more than 75% of their games are just 15-41 (27%) ATS when leading in a playoff series against a team with a winning record. Take the Blazers! |
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05-02-16 | Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 200.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Cavs UNDER The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total for Game 1 of Eastern Conference semifinals between the Hawks and Cavaliers. Atlanta held the Celtics to just 93.8 ppg in their opening series, while the Cavaliers limited the Pistons to just 95.0 ppg. Not a huge surprise as these were two of the top defensive teams during the regular season. Cleveland finished 4th in points allowed at 98.3 and the Hawks were 6th at 99.2. Both also rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency with Atlanta 2nd and Cleveland 10th. It's also important to note that the Cavs are a team that are capable of playing much better defense than what they showed over an 82-game regular season and the Hawks improved greatly on defense in the 2nd half. These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as they played in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland ended up sweeping that series, but the first two games of the series featured 185 and 176 combined points. UNDER is 9-1 in Cavs last 10 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days and 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 road games after covering 2 straight as a favorite. Take the UNDER! |
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05-01-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 84-89 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - Indiana was able to avoid elimination with a 101-83 win at home in Game 5, but I don't think there fortunes will carry over to Game 7. Home court in Game 7 has proven to be a huge advantage over the years, especially when that team is coming off a loss. Going back to the 2002-03 season, the home team is 15-8 (65.2%) ATS in Game 7 after losing the previous game. It's also worth noting that each time Indiana has managed to pull out a win the Raptors have answered with a victory in the next game. Indiana on the other hand is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win by more than 10 points. The Pacers are also 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games after 5 straight games where they held their opponent to 42% or worse from the field. Toronto is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100+ points. Take the Raptors! |
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04-30-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 92-124 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Spurs - San Antonio and Oklahoma City both made easy work of their opponents in the first round. The Spurs swept the Grizzlies while the Thunder needed just 5 games to send Dallas packing. I believe that has kept this spread low enough that it's worth laying the points with San Antonio at home. The Spurs finished a dominant 40-1 on their home floor during the regular season and added two more victories against Memphis. Both coming via huge blowouts. San Antonio beat the Grizzlies by 32 in Game 1 and 26 in Game 2. The Spurs understand the importance of getting a series started off with a win and protecting their home court advantage and I look for them to do just that against the Thunder. Oklahoma City was able to get away with their style of play against the Mavericks, relying almost exclusively on Durant and Westbrook to carry the load offensively. That's not going to work against the Spurs, who are playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio also has the weapons to pick apart the Thunder's defense. I believe it will take a near perfect performance from OKC's two stars just to keep this game close. Thunder are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing 5 straight games as a favorite and are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games in Game 1 of a playoff series as a dog. Spurs are 14-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 19-5 ATS in their last 24 during Game 1 of a playoff series after closing out their previous series with 2 or more consecutive wins. Take San Antonio! |
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04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 194 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors/Pacers UNDER These two teams will be facing off for the sixth time in the last 14 days and needless to say they are very familiar with what each other at this point. Each of the first 4 games finished UNDER the total, including both games in Indiana, but the two did go over the mark in Game 5 at Toronto. I believe that has created some value here on the UNDER. This is a crucial game for both teams. Indiana is facing elimination on their home floor, while Toronto wants to avoid another playoff collapse. Keep in mind two years ago they had a 3-2 lead against the Nets and proceeded to lose Game 6 in Brooklyn and Game 7 at home. Even with a game to play with, Toronto is going to come out like they are facing elimination as well. Both teams are going to lay everything they have on the defensive side of the ball. UNDER is 13-4 in the Pacers last 17 home games after covering the spread in their last contest and 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more points in the 1st half of their previous game. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER! |
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04-28-16 | Hawks -2 v. Celtics | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hawks - The home team has won all 5 games to this point, but I expect that trend to come to an end in Game 6 at Boston. Atlanta laid it on the Celtics in a 110-83 home win in Game 5 and the Hawks can smell blood with a 3-2 series lead. Atlanta has clearly been the more impressive team to this point. They have had at least a 15 point lead in 4 of the 5 games, including a 16-point lead in Game 4 at Boston, which they ended up losing in overtime. The key here is the health of the Celtics, who are without Avery Bradley, arguably their best two-way player. Now they have to lay with a less than 100% Isaiah Thomas, who re-aggravated a sprained left ankle in the 4th quarter of Game 4. Home underdogs that are revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points against an opponent off a win by 20 or more are just 46-82 (36%) ATS since 1996. Hawks as a team are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 off a home win by 10 or more points and the Celtics are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games after playing 2 straight as a dog. Take Atlanta! |
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04-27-16 | Hornets v. Heat -6 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - The Heat and Hornets head to Game 5 in Miami with the series tied 2-2. The Hornets made this a series by taking both Games 3 and 4 at home, but are now headed back to Miami where they got destroyed in the first two games of the series. The Heat won 123-91 in Game 1 and 115-103 in Game 2. Just watching this series you can see just how much better both of these teams play on their home floor. The fact that Miami is a bigger favorite in Game 5 than they were in either Game 1 or Game 2 after losing the last two really speaks volumes to that. This is also a big letdown spot for Hornets, as they put everything they had on the line at home to even up the series. I see this is a very similar scenario to last night's Game 5 between the Hawks and Celtics. Miami is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after a loss by 6 points or less, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games overall and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the Heat! |
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04-26-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -7 | Top | 83-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Playoffs Game of the Month on Hawks - The home team has won all 4 meetings in the series to this point and I don't expect that trend to come to an end in Game 5 in Atlanta on Tuesday. While the series is tied 2-2, I've been much more impressed with the Hawks to this point. In both games in Atlanta, the Hawks jumped out early leads. After letting Boston back in Game 1, they kept their foot on the gas in Game 2 with a 17-point victory. Another key factor to keep in mind is that the Celtics used up a lot of energy in winning both of those games at home and are now primed for a letdown in Game 5. Let's also not forget that Boston is still without a huge piece to the puzzle in Avery Bradley. It's also important to note that while Atlanta lost both games on the road, they could have easily won either of those games. The big problem for them was their 3-point shooting. They were just 25% from long distance in Game 3 and 28% in Game 4. I look for the outside shot to fall at a much higher frequency at home. Boston is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 5 straight games holding their opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Atlanta on the other hand is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take the Hawks! |
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04-25-16 | Mavs +14.5 v. Thunder | Top | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Mavericks + Dallas is showing great value here as a near 15-point underdog in Game 5 against the Thunder. While it's unlikely the Mavericks will pull off another huge upset in OKC (won 85-84 as 14-point dog in Game 2), I expect them to keep this game much closer than the number listed. Oklahoma City just won both games in Dallas to take a commanding 3-1 series lead and could let their guard down here. At the same time, we can expect an all out effort from the Mavericks, as they try to fight off elimination. Getting 2-days off prior to this game is huge for Dallas, who lacks depth with all their injuries and it also gives head coach Rick Carlisle time to make some adjustments, something he's well known for in the postseason. Mavericks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games after playing 2 straight as a home dog, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dallas! |
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04-24-16 | Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 204.5 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Celtics UNDER I really like the value here with the total in Game 4 between the Hawks and Celtics. These two teams combined for 214 points in Game 3, easily eclipsing the total of 203.5. There's a couple of factors that led to the high-scoring affair. Boston switched up their style of play and went with a smaller lineup, which I believe caught the Hawks off guard. Atlanta was also in a prime letdown spot in terms of defensive intensity with a 2-0 series lead. I look for the Hawks to make the adjustments to the Celtics new look and to come out with a lot more motivated than what we saw in Game 3. Atlanta isn't going to let Isaiah Thomas go off for 40+ points in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that the Hawks held Boston to just 72 points in the previous game and held them under 40% shooting in both Game 1 and Game 2. UNDER is 19-6 in the Hawks last 25 when leading in a playoff series, 11-4 in their last 15 games in the first round of the playoffs and 5-0 in their last 5 after failing to cover the spread last time out. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Celtics last 11 after covering their previous game and 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 100+ points. Take the UNDER! |
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04-23-16 | Heat v. Hornets -2 | Top | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hornets - The Hornets season is on the line when they take on the Heat in Game 3 at home. Charlotte lost both games in Miami and simply can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in the series. The Heat couldn't have played any better than they did in the first two games of the series at home, but were not nearly as strong on the road during the regular season. Charlotte on the other hand went a very respectable 30-11 at home. Miami is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after winning 4 of their previous 5 games and 9-20 in their last 29 after covering the spread in 2 straight. The Hornets are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 revenging a road loss, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Take Charlotte -2! |
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04-21-16 | Raptors -1 v. Pacers | Top | 101-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - The Raptors are showing great value here as at basically a pick'em on the road in Game 3 of their series against the Pacers. Indiana is getting a lot of respect for winning Game 1 on the road by 10-points, but I just don't see the Pacers making this a series going forward. Toronto is going to come out with a huge sense of urgency to get back home court advantage. Winning on the road wasn't a problem for the Raptors during the regular season. Toronto went 24-17 away from home, which was nearly as good as the Pacers home record of 26-15. In the first two games Indiana has got a near flawless performance from Paul George, while the Raptors haven't got near the production they expect from their backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry. I look for those two to breakout of their slump and Toronto to continue to their dominance inside. The Raptors have outscored the Pacers 88-56 in the paint and out rebounded them 96-71. Take Toronto! |
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04-18-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -7 | Top | 87-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - The key in the NBA playoffs is to not overreact to what happened in the previous game. Toronto lost at home in Game 1 by double-digits (90-100) as a 7-point favorite, which is going to have a lot of people looking to take Indiana in Game 2. I'm looking the other direction here, as the Raptors are going lay it all on the line to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series. It's also important to note that this play falls in a profitable NBA playoffs zig-zag system, which has us backing home teams off a home loss, who won more than 60% of their games and lost by more than 3-points in the previous matchups. Teams in this spot who are favored by 6 to 9 points are 47-26-2 (64.4%) ATS in the playoffs dating back to 2002. We also see that the Pacers are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 off a upset win as a road dog, while the Raptors are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games when playing against a team with a winning record. Take Toronto! |
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04-17-16 | Pistons +11 v. Cavs | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs ATS No Brainer on Pistons + Detroit is showing great value here as a double-digit dog against the Cavaliers in their series opener. The Pistons played Cleveland tough during the regular season. They won 3 of the 4 meetings and the lone loss came by just 8 points. I'm not expecting Detroit to win this game, but I do think they are going to be able to keep it well within the number posted. The Pistons are simply built well to take on a team like the Cleveland, as they have the inside presence with Drummond to keep James from repeatedly attacking the rim for easy baskets. The Pistons also have the balance offensively to give the Cavaliers trouble on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland went just 4-12 ATS against division opponents this season, winning by an average of just 2.2 ppg. Detroit on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. Take the Pistons! |
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04-16-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -5.5 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Vegas Insider on Hawks - I really like the value here with the Hawks laying a very reasonable number at home against the Celtics. Atlanta really came on strong at the end of the year and I look for that momentum to carry over into the postseason. Boston is a quality team, but are not a great road team and playing away from home in the playoffs is no easy task. Another big key here for me is playoff experience and Atlanta clearly has the edge in that department after advancing to the conference finals a year ago. The Hawks are also playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, especially after the All-Star break. You here a lot about the Spurs and how good they are on defense. The Hawks had the best defense efficiency rating after the break in the league at 96.8 with San Antonio second at 99.3. Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a losing road record. It's also important to note that the Hawks were just 2-6 ATS in their final 8 games, which is helping the number here. The key is that they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take Atlanta! |
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04-12-16 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 84-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Grizzlies + The Grizzlies are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Clippers. Memphis is still fighting for playoff position, while Los Angeles is locked into the No. 4 seed. The Grizzlies currently sit in sixth, 1/2-game back of Portland, but are also just 1/2-game ahead of seventh place Dallas. Avoiding the bottom two spots would keep them from having to play the Spurs in the first round. The Clippers aren't going to come out and say it, but you have to believe LA would rather face Memphis in the first round than the Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies don't figure to be much of a threat in the postseason, as they have lost both Conley and Gasol for the rest of the season. The Clippers also have no reason to be motivated for this game and their focus now is on getting as healthy as possible for the playoffs. Grizzlies are 23-13 ATS off a SU loss this season, while the Clippers are just 14-27 ATS in their last 41 home games off 3 or more consecutive wins and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after making 50% or more of their 3-point shots in their previous game. Take Memphis! |
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04-11-16 | Mavs v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas ATS No Brainer on Jazz - The Jazz are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Mavericks tonight. While both teams are still fighting to secure one of the final two playoff spots in the west. Dallas currently sits in 7th place, 1-game ahead of the Jazz in 8th and 2-games in front of the Rockets in 9th. I look for the Jazz to be the more motivated team at home in this one, as the Mavericks have some breathing room and get to host the Spurs in their finale, which will likely have San Antonio resting most of their star players. You also have to factor in that Dallas could be without both Barea and Williams, as they are both listed as questionable. Utah is also the fresher team here. This will be just the 3rd game in the last 6 days for the Jazz, while the Mavericks will be playing their 3rd in the last 4 days and 2nd of a back-to-back road set. Jazz are 16-6 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and it's worth noting they won the previous meeting 121-119 in Dallas, as the Mavericks are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 revenging a close loss of 3-points or less. Take the Jazz! |
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04-09-16 | Suns -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 121-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
5* No Limit NBA Top Play on Suns - Phoenix is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Pelicans. The public will be inclined to back the Pelicans at home, as the Suns aren't exactly a team most feel comfortable laying points with on the road. However, the situation here heavily favors Phoenix, which is why the books have them listed as the favorite. New Orleans has basically lost everyone who they expected to play a major role this year to some kind of injury. The reserves and free agent signings have continued to play hard down the stretch, but this is one spot where I don't see the Pelicans being interested at all. New Orleans will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th in the last 5 days overall. They won last night in LA 110-102, which adds to the likelihood of a letdown here against a bad team like Phoenix. Take the Suns! |
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04-08-16 | Grizzlies +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Grizzlies + Memphis is showing great value here in what's an important game for both teams. While the Grizzlies have secured a playoff spot, they are still fighting for positioning. Right now Memphis is tied with Portland for 5th, which would have them playing the Clippers in the first round. If they end up 6-8 they will have to play either the Thunder, Spurs or Warriors. Dallas has won 5 straight to put them in a great position to make the playoffs, as they are 1-game ahead of 8th place Utah and 2.5 ahead of 9th place Houston. The recent run has been impressive, but I believe it has them overvalued here. Dallas has had to play at a much slower pace since losing Parsons and Williams, which I think plays into the strength of the Grizzlies. It also makes the 6.5-points that much more valuable, as this doesn't figure to be a high-scoring game. Memphis is 27-7 ATS in their last 34 off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog and are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games off an upset win as a home dog. Take Memphis +6.5! |
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04-07-16 | Wolves v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Kings - Sacramento is actually showing great value here as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Timberwolves. This is the ultimate letdown spot for Minnesota, as they pulled off a huge upset in Tuesday's 124-117 overtime win at Golden State, where they overcame a 17-point deficit. There's just no way the Timberwolves are able to come close in bringing that same kind of energy here on the road against the Kings. Sacramento has been hit or miss of late but I look for them to come out motivated here off a loss at home last time out. The Kings also should have plenty of motivation to avoid getting swept by Minnesota in the season series. If the Timberwolves come out flat, this game could get way out of hand early. Lay the Points! |
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04-06-16 | Rockets v. Mavs +2 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Mavs + Dallas is showing great value here as a home dog against the Rockets. In fact, my numbers suggest that the Mavericks should be the ones playing points. Dallas comes into this game having won 4 straight, but just aren't getting the respect they deserve due to the fact that they are dealing with injuries. Clearly the books are overreacting, as the Mavericks have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. Houston has been inconsistent all season and that's been the case of late. The Rockets are just 3-5 over their last 8, but are getting some love here after beating the Thunder 118-110 as a 3.5-point road dog. Key thing to keep in mind is OKC has nothing to play for right now (all but locked into the No.3 seed). This is basically a playoff game for these two teams and with that I give a big edge to the home team. Dallas currently sits 1/2-game ahead of 8th place Utah, but are just 1-game ahead of 9th place Houston. A win here could push the Mavericks 2-games up on the Rockets with just 4 to play. Take Dallas! |
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04-05-16 | Suns v. Hawks UNDER 208 | Top | 90-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Hawks UNDER I believe the books have set the bar way too high for tonight's total between the Suns and Hawks. Phoenix comes into his game really struggling to get anything going offensively. The Suns have failed to score 100 points in 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall. Their offensive woes figure to continue against the Hawks, who are going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back losses to the Raptors and Cavaliers. Atlanta is currently sitting tied with Boston for the No. 3 seed in the east, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of both Miami and Charlotte. Homecourt is something the Hawks desperately want in the first round and getting the No. 3 seed ensures they won't see the Cavaliers until the conference finals. UNDER is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 at home against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 21-8 in the Suns last 29 after allowing 100 or more in 5 straight games and 10-2 in their last 12 road games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game. UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings of this series. Take the UNDER! |
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04-03-16 | Pacers -4 v. Knicks | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pacers - The Pacers are showing great value here as a mere 4-point favorite against the Knicks. Indiana comes into this game off an easy 115-102 win at Philadelphia yesterday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with another easy win today. The Pacers can't afford to lose to a team like New York right now, as they are sitting in the 8th and final playoff spot in the east, just two games up on the Bulls. New York comes into this game off an impressive 105-91 win at home against the Nets without Porzingis, which is definitely keeping this line low. What gets overlooked is the big advantage the Knicks had in that game with the Nets playing their 4th game in 5 days and fresh off a game the night before against the Cavaliers. Brooklyn simply didn't show up to play. There's simply not enough talent on the roster for the Knicks to compete with a motivated Pacers team without Porzingis. They also are without point guard Jose Calderon. New York is a mere 5-16 ATS in their last 21 as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points and just 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games after playing their previous game at home. Lay the points! |
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04-01-16 | Raptors v. Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* No Limit NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies + Memphis is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Raptors. The Grizzlies are simply being undervalued due to having lost 4 straight and 8 of 10 overall, but injuries have played a big part in that. Toronto also comes in off a big 105-97 home win and are perceived to be the much better team. While the Raptors are the better team, I don't see them being all that interested in this matchup. Toronto has made it clear that they aren't concerned about catching Cleveland for the No. 1 seed in the east and in the back of their minds, I believe they know their chances of Cleveland slipping are slim. That doesn't leave a whole lot to play for, as they are 6-games up on 3rd place Atlanta. Having just secured their 50th win of the season at home and a huge game against the Spurs on deck tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if rest was the primary focus in this one. Either key players sitting or playing limited minutes. With Memphis they just got back Randolph and Tony Allen is healthy, giving them a formidable lineup, even with Gasol and Conley out. This game also means a lot more to the Grizzlies, who have made it clear they want the No. 5 seed. Right now they are just 1.5-games up on 6th place Portland. I expect a max effort here at home for Memphis. Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 against the Eastern Conference and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take the points! |
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03-30-16 | Suns v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Bucks - This might seem like a big number for Milwaukee to be laying at home, as the Bucks come into this game having lost 5 straight. However, those 5 losses have all come against quality opponents in the Jazz, Pistons, Cavaliers, Hawks and Hornets (3 of the 5 on the road). I look for Milwaukee to come out extremely motivated and make easy work of the Suns. Keep in mind that despite their poor overall record, the Bucks are a respectable 21-15 at home this season. Phoenix on the other hand is just 7-30 on the road, where they are getting outscored on average by nearly 12.0 ppg. The Suns are also a team that's more interested in tanking for a better chance at the top pick than finishing the season strong. I just don't see the effort being there on the road tonight. Phoenix just played on the road in Minnesota in their last game and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after a road game where both teams scored 100+ points. They are also just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games overall and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 against a team with a losing record. Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Lay the points! |
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03-28-16 | Thunder v. Raptors +2.5 | Top | 119-100 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
5* Thunder/Raptors NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors + The Raptors are showing exceptional value here as a home dog against the Thunder. Toronto is a dominant 28-8 at home this season and simply put should not be getting points on their home floor. Oklahoma City has won 7 straight, but really don't have anything to gain in the standings, as they are all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the west. Toronto on the other hand is just 2.5-games back of Cleveland for the top spot in the east. Either way I expect a max effort here from the Raptors against a top level opponent, especially knowing that they are underdogs on their home floor. I expect Toronto's defense to be the difference in this one. The Raptors are giving up just 98.1 ppg at home, while OKC is allowing a staggering 106.2 ppg on the road. Thunder are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Raptors on the other hand are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the points! |
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03-23-16 | Mavs v. Blazers -6 | Top | 103-109 | Push | 0 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Blazers - The Trail Blazers are showing great value here at home against the Mavericks. These two teams just played in Dallas on Sunday, which the Mavericks won 132-120 in overtime. It's extremely difficult beating the same team in consecutive games, especially when that next meeting is on the road. I look for Portland to come out with one of their best efforts of the season tonight and put away the Mavericks early. Even with the win over the Blazers, Dallas is just 2-7 in their last 9 overall. Things don't figure to get better now that they lost Chandler Parsons to a season-ending injury. We are also catching Portland undervalue due to a brutal schedule they have had to deal with of late. The Blazers have played 11 of their last 13 on the road. There's no doubt in my mind they will be extremely motivated to get back on track at home. This is also a tough spot for the Mavericks, as they could find themselves looking ahead to Friday's road showdown against the Warriors. Dallas is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games after covering the spread in their last contest and 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against a team with a winning home record. Portland is 13-4 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after losing 3 of their last 4 and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Lay the points! |
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03-22-16 | Hornets v. Nets +6.5 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
5* No Limit NBA *BEST BET* on Nets + Brooklyn is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Hornets. Charlotte is in the ultimate letdown spot here, as they used every ounce of energy they had in last night's improbable win over the Spurs. The Hornets trailed 7-30 early in the 2nd quarter, but were able to rally for a 91-88 victory. I just don't see Charlotte coming out with the kind of energy needed to turn this into a blowout. Not only are the Hornets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back set on the road, but this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days overall. It's also important to keep in mind that Charlotte is not the same team on the road as they are at home. The Hornets are just 13-19 on the road, compared to 27-11 at home. Brooklyn isn't a great team by any means, but I expect the Nets to come out with some energy at home after getting the last 2 days off. The Nets will also be getting back Brook Lopez after he sat out the last game. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss by more than 10 points, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take the points! |
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03-21-16 | Spurs v. Hornets +6 | Top | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Hornets + Charlotte is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Spurs. This is simply a bad spot for San Antonio off that huge win at home against the Warriors. The Spurs invested everything they had in beating Golden State and are almost certainly going to suffer a letdown on the road against a Hornets team that is quietly playing their best basketball of the season. Charlotte comes in off a 93-101 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 9-point favorite, which is definitely helping the value here. However, that lackluster performance against Denver, likely had a lot to do with them looking ahead to this game. The Hornets are 15-4 over their last 19 games and haven't lost back-to-back games when playing at home all season. This is also a big revenge game for Charlotte, as they got embarrassed by 20-points at San Antonio earlier this season. Hornets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Spurs are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against the east. Take the points! |
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03-15-16 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 207 | Top | 98-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Celtics/Pacers OVER While the Celtics failed to score 100+ for the first time in 9 games in their last game and the Pacers managed just 75 points at Atlanta last time out, I look for both offenses to put on a show tonight. The Celtics 98-point effort against the Rockets was simply a result of an off night shooting. Boston comes in averaging 106.1 ppg. Both of these team rank in the top 10 in pace of play, with the Celtics the better of the two at No. 3. With Boston coming into this game having not played since last Friday, we can expect the Celtics to be running up and down the floor. They should be able to have their way with a Pacers defense that has given up 100+ in two straight. I also look for Indiana to score at will here. The Celtics are giving up 103.7 ppg on the road overall and have allowed 113.6 ppg over their last 5 away from home. No surprise, every one of those games finished over the total. OVER is 38-15 in Boston's last 53 road games when playing with 3 or more days of rest and the OVER is 36-7 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more where you have a team playing 3 or less games in 10 days that has lost 2 of their last 3. OVER is also 46-19 on Tuesday over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a road blowout loss by 20 or more. Take the OVER! |
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03-14-16 | Mavs +7 v. Hornets | Top | 107-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Mavericks + Dallas comes into this game having lost 5 straight and as a result we are getting great value on the Mavericks here as a decently priced road dog against the Hornets. Charlotte on the other hand is overvalued due to winning 7 straight. Not to take anything away from the Hornets, but their 7-game winning streak has come against a favorable schedule and 6 of the 7 have come at home. As poorly as the Mavericks have been playing of late, they are still tied for 7th in the west. With that said, Dallas can't continue to play this bad and I look for an all out effort here against Charlotte. The Hornets on the other hand are due for a letdown. Charlotte has allowed 100+ points in 5 straight an eventually that poor defensively will catch up to them. Dallas is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 off 2 or more consecutive home losses. Charlotte is just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers. Take the points! |
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03-13-16 | Cavs v. Clippers UNDER 208.5 | Top | 114-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Clippers NBA Heavy Hitter on UNDER I'm expecting both teams to come out sluggish, which should lead to a much lower scoring game than the books are expecting. Rarely do you see teams on the west coast playing this early in the day and on top of that, players have to adjust to daylight savings time. This is also a big time matchup, which tends to lead to a lot more effort on the defensive end. Both of teams can light it up offensively and that overshadows how good they are defensively. Both of these teams rank in the Top 8 in defensive efficiency. Cleveland is only giving up 97 ppg on the road and the Clippers are allowing just 98.8 ppg at home. UNDER is 13-4 in the Cavaliers last 17 after covering 4 of their last 5, 22-10 in their last 32 games played on Sunday and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 2 days of rest. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Clippers last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record, 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 22-5 in their last 27 when facing an opponent who allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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03-12-16 | Pelicans v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Bucks - The Pelicans are no longer a threat to make the playoffs, as they are 8.5-games back of 8th place Dallas with just 18 games left on the schedule. They also have to pass 3 other teams ahead of them just to get to the Mavericks. This is a team that is going to struggle to play hard down the stretch, as they came into this season with the expectation of making the playoffs. This is an especially difficult spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans lost in overtime last night at Memphis and will now be playing on no rest in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. Four of the five starters played 40+ minutes and Ryan Anderson played 37 off the bench. Making it even harder to get up for this game is the fact that they have the Warriors on deck Monday. Milwaukee on the other hand comes in off a win at home over Miami and will be playing on 2 days of rest. Bucks are also a respectable 19-12 at home, while the Pelicans are just 7-25 on the road. New Orleans is just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 120 or more points. Milwaukee is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after losing 2 of their last 3. Lay the points! |
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03-09-16 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 201 | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year on Heat/Bucks UNDER I'm expecting a defensive showdown in tonight's matchup between the Bucks and Heat. Neither of these teams like to play at a fast pace. Milwaukee ranks 22nd in pace and the Heat are 26th. I look for the defensive intensity to be there for both teams. Miami has had the last 2 days off and will be motivated to get a win with road games at Chicago and Toronto on deck. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back losses and will be focused here against a top level team at home. These two teams combined for 210 points in the most recent meeting on 1/29. However, both teams shot lights out from the field. Milwaukee hit 47.5% of their field goal attempts and the Heat were even better at 50%. Keep in mind the total for that game was just 194.5. The previous meeting this season at Miami only saw a combined score of 170. I just think there's too much value here with the total over 200. UNDER is 12-2 in the Heat's last 14 road games as a favorite of 3 or less, 11-2 in their last 13 road games when playing with 2 days of rest, 10-3-2 in their last 15 against a team with a losing record and 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central. UNDER is also 9-2-2 in the Bucks last 13 against a team with a winning record, 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring 100 points and 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against Miami. Take the UNDER! |
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03-07-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -7 | Top | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Bulls - Chicago finds themselves sitting tied with the Pistons for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls had really been struggling with injuries and as a result were just 3-9 in their previous 12 before knocking off the Rockets at home 108-100 on Saturday. That win over Houston marked the return of Jimmy Butler. With Chicago finally starting to get healthy and their playoff lives at stake, I look for the Bulls to go on a big run down the stretch. Either way, this is a great spot to back Chicago at home against the Bucks. Milwaukee is not a great road team. The Bucks are just 8-25 away from home. Making matters worse, is the fact that Milwaukee will be playing on no rest after a big home game yesterday against the Thunder, which they lost 96-104. Five different players logged 30+ minutes, with Parker, Antetokounmpo and Middleton all playing 36 or more. I just don't see Milwaukee being able to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one. Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Bucks. Milwaukee is also just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing 60 or more in the 1st half of their last game. Lay the points! |
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03-06-16 | Mavs -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 114-116 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit *BEST BET* on Mavs - The Mavericks are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Nuggets. Dallas has won 4 straight in the series and Denver is headed in the wrong direction. The Nuggets have lost 6 of their last 8, including an ugly home loss to the Nets last time out. Things don't figure to get better for Denver with Danilo Gallinari still sidelined and the Mavericks can't afford to lose this game in the playoff race. This is also a big bounce back game for Dallas, as they come in off a 101-104 loss at home to the Kings as a 6.5-point favorite. Offensively the Mavericks have been lights out, scoring 100+ in 9 straight games. Denver has allowed 100+ in 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall. The Nuggets come in giving up 106.5 ppg. With Dallas playing on 2 days rest, I just don't see Denver being able to make enough stops here to keep this game close. Mavericks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games after 4 straight game where both teams scored 100+ points, 18-9 ATS in their last 27 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Denver is 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring 100+ in their previous game. Lay the points! |
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03-04-16 | Wizards v. Cavs -8 | Top | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational *BEST BET* on Cavs - The Cavaliers are going to be all business when they take the floor tonight against the Wizards, who they just lost to at Washington by 14-points on Sunday. Keep in mind that win for the Wizards came with LeBron James sitting out due to rest. This is a statement game for the Cavaliers as they are just 2-3 in their last 5 overall. We can count on a max effort here from Cleveland. Not only will the Cavaliers be motivated with revenge, but they come into this game having had the last 3 days off. Even more incentive is that this is a nationally televised game on ESPN. Washington has won 4 straight and 7 of 9 overall, but 5 of those wins came at home and the two on the road were against the 76ers and Timberwolves. Wizards will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days, which is no easy task on the road. Wizards are just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 after covering 3 of their last 4 and 11-22 ATS in their last 33 off a road win. Washington is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 when playing with 3 or more days of rest. Lay the points! |
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03-02-16 | Blazers v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Celtics - The Trail Blazers come into this game having won 3 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. Portland is also an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10. This might seem like a fair number to back the Blazers on the road against the Celtics, but this is a horrible spot for Portland. Not only will the Trail Blazers be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 4th road game in the last 5 days overall. At the same time, it's not like Boston hasn't been playing well of late. The Celtics have won 3 straight and are 14-4 in their last 18. Boston has been especially good at home, where they have won 11 straight. The Celtics will simply be the much fresher team in this one. Boston had yesterday off and this will be their 4th straight at home. Trail Blazers are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after playing 3 straight non-conference games and 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games against at team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Boston is 12-3 ATS this season in games with a total of 210 or more, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 6-1 in their last 7 off 1 day of rest and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! |
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02-29-16 | 76ers +12.5 v. Wizards | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on 76ers + Philadelphia is showing exceptional value here as a double-digit road dog against the Wizards. This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this month. Washington won by 12-points at home as a 9-point favorite back on 2/5 and then by 9-points as a 7-point favorite at Philadelphia last Friday. We are simply seeing an overreaction here based on how both teams performed yesterday. Washington beat the Cavaliers 113-99, while the 76ers lost 116-30 at Orlando. Even though the Wizards win over Cleveland came without LeBron James, they were emotionally invested in that game. I just don't see Washington being all that interested with this matchup against Philadelphia. Keep in mind that this is only the second time all season the Wizards have been favored by double-digits. The previous time was at home agains the Lakers, where they lost outright 104-108 as a 10-point favorite. Wizards are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 following a win by more than 10-points and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when facing an opponent who scored 100 or more points in their previous game. Washington is also just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points and 0-3 ATS this season after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Take the points! |
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02-28-16 | Heat v. Knicks UNDER 198 | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on Knicks/Heat UNDER I really like the value we are getting here with the total for tonight's game between the Heat and Knicks. Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 96.9 ppg, and are going to have to rely on that defense on the road in the second game of a back-to-back set. Knicks have scored 100+ in two straight, but are only averaging 99.4 ppg on the season. New York has started to show signs of life in their last two games and held the Magic to just 95 points on 41.9% shooting in their last game. Miami's offense is not great. The Heat only average 93.9 ppg and the offense will be adjusting to newly acquired Joe Johnson. It's also important to note that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. Miami ranks 28th in pace and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th. These two teams have played 3 times already this season and the most they have combined for is 188 points and two of the 3 saw fewer than 180 points. UNDER is 14-5 in the Heat's last 19 with a line of +3 to -3, 24-9 in their last 33 after allowing 100+ in two straight games and 21-9 in their last 30 revenging a home loss. UNDER is also 19-6-1 in the Knicks last 26 against a team with a winning record, 6-2 in their last 10 at home and 5-1 in their last 6 after covering the spread last time out. Take the UNDER! |
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02-26-16 | Magic v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Knicks - New York is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Magic. The Knicks have lost 9 of their last 10 overall, but I believe there is a lot of fight left in this team. They certainly came to play last time out at Indiana, where they lost by just 3-points as a 6-point dog. I look for New York to come out extremely motivated at home tonight, as they desperately need a win to get this thing headed back in the right direction. Luckily for the Knicks they catch the Magic in a tough spot. Orlando will be playing in the 2nd game of the a back-to-back set and are going to find it difficult to get excited about this matchup after laying it all on the line last night at home against the Warriors. A game they were competitive in up until late in the 4th quarter. Orlando also has to have some tired legs. Their last two games have seen combined scores of 239 and 244. Magic are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after giving up 125 or more. Knicks are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent (2 straight losses) and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 off a road loss by 3-points or less. Lay the points! |
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02-24-16 | Hornets v. Cavs -8 | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Hardwood No Brainer on Cavs - The Cavaliers come into this game off an ugly 88-96 home loss to the Pistons as a 9-point favorite on Tuesday. It wasn't all that surprising to see Cleveland struggle in that game, as they really invested a lot the previous day in a 115-92 win at Oklahoma City. Regardless, it now has the Cavaliers poised for a huge bounce back performance at home against the Hornets. Not only is Cleveland going to be motivated after what took place against Detroit last time out, but they will also be out to make a statement against Charlotte, who defeated them 106-97 earlier this month. Last time the Hornets visited Cleveland, the Cavaliers cruised to a 129-90 blowout win as a 10-point favorite. I look for a very similar type of outcome in this one, as Charlotte is just 10-17 on the road. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outrebounding opponents by 3+ rebounds/game are 152-101 (60%) ATS in the month of February since 1996. Lay the points! |
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02-23-16 | Nets v. Blazers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 104-112 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Blazers UNDER The Blazers come into this game having gone OVER the total in 4 straight games and have combined for 142 and 126 in their first two games back from the All-Star break. While the Nets went UNDER the total in their last game, the OVER has cashed in 7 of their last 9. The books have had no choice but to inflate this number, thus creating great value on the UNDER. This is a big letdown spot for Portland after demolishing the Warriors and holding on for a 4-point home win over a surging Utah team. I just don't see the focus being there against a Nets team they are favored against by double-digits. Brooklyn only averages 95.6 ppg on the road and have seen 15 of their 23 road games go UNDER the total. UNDER is 27-10-1 in the Blazers last 38 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 19-8 in the Nets last 27 as a dog of 10 or more and 14-4 in their last 18 road games off a home loss. We'll take the UNDER! |
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02-21-16 | Cavs v. Thunder -3 | Top | 115-92 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Thunder NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder - Oklahoma City comes into this game off a heartbreaking 98-101 home loss to the Pacers (I cashed my underdog GOM on Indiana +9 in that game). Now it has the Thunder in a prime bounce back spot at home against the surging Cavaliers, who have won 4 straight. That loss to the Pacers was only the 6th time all season OKC was defeated on their home floor, as they are 25-6. The Thunder are simply not getting the respect they deserve in this game, in large part due to the Cavaliers riding that 4-game winning streak and having won 9 of their last 11 overall. The key thing to keep in mind, is that all but 2 of those wins came at home, where Cleveland is 23-4. Cavaliers are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 road games after playing their previous game at home and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after scoring 105+ points in 3 straight games. Thunder are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 off a loss by 3 points or less and 27-8-1 ATS in their last 36 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Oklahoma City! |
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02-19-16 | Pacers +9 v. Thunder | Top | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Underdog of the Month on Pacers + The Pacers are showing exceptional value here as a near double-digit road dog against the Thunder. Indiana went into the All-Star break off an embarrassing 22-point loss at home to the Hornets and I look for them to come out extremely motivated in their first game back. Prior to that loss the Pacers had won 5 of 7. Oklahoma City has gone 14-2 in their last 16 games and I believe that has them way overvalued here. The Thunder could also have a hard time getting up for this contest, being it's the first game after the break and they have a much bigger home game on deck agains the Cavaliers Sunday. Indiana is a dominant 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a double-digit loss at home and 18-8 ATS in their last 27 against a team with a winning record. Thunder are just 10-24 ATS in their last 34 against teams who average 99+ points/game and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall. Take Indiana! |
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02-18-16 | Jazz v. Wizards UNDER 197.5 | Top | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Total Top Play on Jazz/Wizards UNDER Both the Wizards and Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs in their respective conferences and I look for both teams to come out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball after the long layoff with the All-Star break. At the same time, the long layoff will have both offenses struggling to find their rhythm in the first game back. Utah is the key for this one going under the total. The Jazz went into the All-Star break having won 7 of their last 8 and a big reason for that was their defense. Utah has held 8 of their last 10 opponents to 96 or fewer points and no team plays at a slower pace than the Jazz. Washington does allow 105.4 ppg, but are more than capable of slowing down a below-average Utah offense on their home floor. Both meetings last year between these two teams saw fewer than 180 points and 5 of the last 6 in the series have gone below the total posted for this game. Under is 26-12 in Utah's last 38 against terrible defensive teams that allow 103+ ppg and 21-9 in their last 30 against the Eastern Conference. Under is also 7-1 in the Wizards last 8 home games against a team with a losing record. Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 25-6 (81%) in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where you have a team that's won 8 or more their last 10 games, who has played 3 or fewer games in the last 10 days. Take the UNDER! |
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02-11-16 | Wizards v. Bucks -1 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* Wizards/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks - Milwaukee comes into the final game before the All-Star break having gone just 2-7 in their last 9 games, but that has a lot to do with the schedule. Of the 7 losses, 6 came on the road, where the Bucks are just 7-24 on the season. Milwaukee defeated the Celtics 112-111 at home in their last game as a 4-point dog and are 5-1 in their last 6 home games overall with wins over Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, Orlando and Boston. The Wizards come in off a 111-108 win at New York, but are just 4-8 in their last 12. Washington has been especially bad on the defensive side of things of late, as they are allowing 111.6 ppg over their last 5. I don't see the defensive intensity getting turned up for a road game against the Bucks with the long layoff for the All-Star break on deck. Washington is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 off a win by 3 points or less and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off a road win scoring 110 or more points. The Bucks on the other hand are a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after losing at least 4 of their last 6 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee! |
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02-09-16 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 193 | Top | 119-101 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit TNT Total Top Play on Spurs/Heat UNDER The books have set the mark too high for this TNT showdown between the Heat and Spurs. These are two of the top defensive teams in the NBA. Miami comes in allowing just 95.3 ppg and rank 6th in defensive efficiency. The Spurs are giving up just 92.8 ppg and lead the league in defensive efficiency. San Antonio has held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 97 or less points, while the Heat have score 98 or fewer in each of their last 3. The fact that this game is being played in Miami is key, as that should allow the Heat to control the tempo and only the Jazz play at a slower pace than the Heat. Both meetings last year saw fewer than 184 points and each of the last 4 in the series have finished with 193 or less. UNDER is 21-9 in the Spurs last 30 road games after going over the total in their previous game and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's 18 games this season when listed as an underdog and 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER! |
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02-08-16 | Bulls +6 v. Hornets | Top | 91-108 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Hornets NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bulls + Chicago comes into this game having lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 overall, plus are not expected to have the services of All-Star Jimmy Butler. I believe oddsmakers have drastically inflated this line because of this and thus the Bulls are showing some great value here against the Hornets. Keep in mind that Chicago was a 3.5-point favorite earlier this season at Charlotte. As good as Butler is, he's not worth 9.5-points. Whenever a team is missing a key player like the Bulls will be tonight, that takes away from the focus and intensity of the other team. I just don't see the Hornets being as focused for this game as you would expect and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Chicago won this game outright. Road teams that have allowed 100+ points in 4 straight games against an opponent off a win by 6 or less are 49-30 (62%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. At the same time, Favorites off a win by 6 or less against an opponent off 3 straight games with a combined score of 205 or more points are just 22-50 (31%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Chicago! |
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02-05-16 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavs - This may seem like a big number for Cleveland to be laying against a Celtics team that has won 7 of their last 8, but I don't see Boston being able to contain the Cavaliers in this one. The Celtics recent surge has primarily come against bad teams, as 6 of the 7 wins came against the 76ers, Wizards, Nuggets, Magic, Knicks and Pistons. Cleveland isn't going to take this game lightly after an embarrassing 97-106 loss at Charlotte with the Hornets playing without Kemba Walker. Returning home should do the trick for the Cavs, where they are a dominant 19-3 at home this season and off a 14-point win against the Spurs in their last home game. Cleveland also won by 12 at Boston earlier this season. Celtics are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Cavaliers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 against team with a winning record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after a contest where they were out rebounded by 20 or more. Take Cleveland! |
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02-01-16 | Mavs v. Hawks UNDER 198.5 | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* Mavs/Hawks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER I'm expecting a very slow pace and strong defensive intensity from both teams in this one. Dallas isn't going to be looking to run, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 5th in the last 7 days overall. However, the Mavericks do figure to come to play, as they will be out for revenge from a 95-98 loss at home earlier this season. Atlanta will also be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after playing yesterday in Miami. This will also be the Hawks 4th game in 6 days. Atlanta has lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, so we have every reason to expect them to show up with a lot of intensity defensively to get a win. Note that during this 6-game stretch only 1 of those came at home and that was an extremely low-scoring game against the Clippers (83-85). It's also important to note that both offenses come in struggling right now. The Mavericks have scored 92 or fewer in 3 of their last 4, while the Hawks have scored 95 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. Dallas has held each of their last 2 opponents under 80 points and Atlanta has allowed 86 or less in each of their last 3 home games. UNDER is 25-14 in the Mavericks last 29 after 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 5-1 in their last 6 when their starters combine for 160 or more minutes the previous day and 8-2 in their last 10 road games. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hawks last 5 against the Western Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 23-9 in their last 32 home games off 2 straight road losses by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER! |
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01-29-16 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 222 | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Rockets/Thunder UNDER Due to this matchup featuring two of the more explosive offensive teams and this game being televised on NBATV, I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated total. Oklahoma City is coming off two high-scoring games against the Knicks (128-122) and Timberwolves (126-123), both of which came on the road. Not a huge surprise to see the Thunder not bring the defensive intensity against below average opponents. They won't have any problem getting motivated against the Rockets on their home floor, as they have lost each of the last 5 meetings in the series. One thing to keep in mind with Oklahoma City is they play much better defensively at home, where they are only giving up 98.0 ppg. I'm also expecting a strong defensive effort here from the Rockets, as they are going to be motivated coming off an embarrassing 99-130 loss at San Antonio. The UNDER is 7-3 in the Rockets last 10 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-3 in their last 12 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 15-3 in the Thunder's last 18 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 9-1 in their last 10 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite and 9-1 in their last 10 home games off a road win where they scored 110 or more points. Take the UNDER! |
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01-28-16 | Hawks v. Pacers -3 | Top | 92-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Pacers NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Pacers - While the Pacers come into this game having lost 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall, this team showed signs of turning the corner with Tuesday's heartbreaking 89-91 home loss to the Clippers. I believe we are seeing Indiana greatly undervalued here because of their recent poor stretch. Atlanta is also coming off a crushing loss at home to the Clippers, as they lost 83-85 last night to LA. Having to play on no rest is going to be a tall task for the Hawks to overcome against a highly motivated Pacers team. Keep in mind that Atlanta only had 1-day off prior to their game against the Clippers, which followed a 4-game west coast road trip. It's also important to note that the Pacers already won 93-87 at home against Atlanta this season and despite losing their last 2 at home are a strong 13-7 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana also seems to play their best against the best, as the Pacers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against a team with a winning record. They are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 when playing only their 2nd game in a span of 5 days. Take Indiana! |
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01-25-16 | Hawks -5 v. Nuggets | Top | 119-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Hawks - This is a great spot to jump on Atlanta and fade the Nuggets. Denver is getting a lot of love from the books due to covering the spread in each of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7 overall, but will be outclassed against the Hawks. Atlanta will be all business after an embarrassing 95-98 loss at Phoenix as a 10-point favorite, which followed a 88-91 defeat at Sacramento. The Hawks haven't lost 3 straight since the middle of December and I don't see that streak coming to an end here. The Nuggets come into this game off a 104-101 win at home against the Pistons, which they were fortunate to win after trailing by 9 at the half. Fading teams in this spot has been a profitable move over the years, as home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a close home win by 3 or less are just 12-37 (24%) ATS in non-conference games since 1996. The Hawks have also been a strong team to back when coming off a game where they lost outright as a favorite. They are 19-9 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons and have won these games by an average of 7.4 ppg. It's also worth noting that the Nuggets are just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 home games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Take Atlanta! |
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01-22-16 | Bulls +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-110 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bulls + Chicago is coming off one of their most embarrassing losses of the season, as they lost 94-125 at home to the Warriors in Wednesday's nationally televised game on ESPN. That loss isn't going to sit well with the Bulls and I look for them to come out inspired against the Celtics tonight. Chicago has responded well in this spot of late, as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a double-digit loss at home. Hard to not like their chances given how poorly the Celtics have been playing. Boston is just 4-8 in their last 12 games and two of those wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league right now in the Nets and Suns. Boston did win at home earlier this season, but are just 2-7 in their last 9 games in the series against the Bulls. A big reason Boston is struggling right now is there defense, as they come in allowing a staggering 109.4 ppg over their last 5 contests. Last time out they gave up 115 to the Raptors. That's important to note, as the Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after allowing 110 or more points in their previous game. Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Bulls. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 25-6 (81%) ATS since 1996. Take Chicago! |
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01-20-16 | Hawks v. Blazers +2 | Top | 104-98 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Blazer ESPN ATS Vegas Insider on Blazers + The books are begging you to take the Hawks as a small road favorite against the Blazers in a prime time matchup on ESPN, which only strengthens how much I like Portland in this spot. The Blazers come into this game playing well. They have won 4 of their last 5, which includes two impressive home wins over the Thunder (115-10) and Jazz (99-85). Atlanta is simply getting a lot of love here due to back-to-back blowout wins at home against the Nets (114-86) and Magic (98-81). Two teams that aren't very good and not playing well at the moment. The key thing here is the Hawks have not played well on the road of late. They lost back-to-back games at Charlotte (84-107) and Milwaukee (101-108) and have dropped 4 of their last 6 away from home with one of the wins coming against the 76ers. These two teams played in Atlanta back on 12/21, which the Hawks won by a final of 106-97. That may appear as positive for Atlanta, but Portland is a completely different team on the road and were without their top two scorers in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. It's also worth noting that the Blazers went just 5 of 24 from the 3-point line and as a team rank 3rd in the league with 10.3 3-pointers made per game. Hawks are a mere 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games in the 2nd half of the season against up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots/game and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against a marginal winning team (40% to 49%). Blazers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 off an upset win as a road dog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take Portland! |
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01-15-16 | Hawks -3.5 v. Bucks | Top | 101-108 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Bucks NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Hawks - Atlanta comes into this game off an embarrassing 84-107 loss at Charlotte on Wednesday, which followed one of their best efforts of the season in a 120-105 win against the Bulls last Saturday. With home games against the Nets and Magic on deck, we should get a max effort here from the Hawks as they will be extremely motivated to make a statement after how poorly they played against the Hornets. I look for them to have no problem getting a win here against the Bucks, who are just 6-10 in their last 16 games. While Milwaukee had yesterday off, this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights, as well as their 4th in the last 6 days. Atlanta on the other hand is well-rested, as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. It's also important to note that the Hawks have owned the Bucks of late. Atlanta is 13-2 against Milwaukee over the last 15 meetings and have won 6 straight at the Bradley Center, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the process. The Hawks are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games with a total 200 to 209.5 and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off an upset loss as a favorite. WE also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Bucks. Teams off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog against an opponent off a loss by 10 or more as a road favorite are 14-44 (24%) ATS since 1996. Take Atlanta! |
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01-14-16 | Cavs v. Spurs UNDER 196 | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Spurs NBA No Limit Top Play on UNDER Two of the NBA's best will square off tonight in a prime time showdown on TNT. Cleveland comes into this game having won 8 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. San Antonio has won 9 straight and 16 of their last 17 overall. This is a statement game for both teams and I expect to see near playoff intensity in this one. I believe it's going to lead to a defensive battle and a much lower-scoring game than most would expect. It reminds me a lot of the Christmas Day matchup between the the Cavs and Warriors. Cleveland lost that game at Golden State 83-89 for a combined total of 172 points. Well below the posted total for the game of 207.5. San Antonio is even a better defensive team than than the Warriors. The Spurs are allowing 93.5 points per 100 possessions which is the best mark in more than a decade. Cleveland ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing just 99.4 points per 100 possessions. UNDER is 31-17 in the Cavaliers last 48 games against high-scoring teams averaging 103+ points/game 19-9 in their last 28 as a dog and 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! |
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01-08-16 | Mavs v. Bucks +1 | Top | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
5* Mavs/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks + I really like the value we are getting with the Bucks at basically a pick'em at home against the Mavericks. Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. I look for them to come out sluggish against Milwaukee. The Mavericks followed up a double-overtime game against the Kings on Tuesday with a hard fought 100-91 win at New Orleans and I just don't see the energy being there in this one. Milwaukee on the other hand is going to come out motivated to get a win after a couple of ugly losses to the Spurs (98-123) and Bulls (106-117) in their last 2 games. The Bucks will also be out for revenge from a 93-103 loss at Dallas on 12/28. Bucks are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Dallas on the other hand is just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee! |
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01-06-16 | Mavs v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 100-91 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Southwest Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Pelicans - The perception here is that the Mavericks will be out for revenge from a 98-105 home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday, but the reality is that Dallas likely won't have anything left in the tank for this matchup. The Mavericks just played a grueling double-overtime game against the Kings last night, which saw the two teams combined for 233 points. Not only is Dallas in a horrible back-to-back spot on the road, but this is also their 4th game in the last 6 days. New Orleans on the other hand is playing on 3 days rest and this will be just their 2nd game in the last 6 days. Having just beat the Mavericks isn't going to have the Pelicans coming into this game over-confident, which is normally where the revenge angle comes into play. New Orleans can't afford to take any games off, as they have the 3rd worst record in the Western Conference. Dallas is just 23-35 ATS in their last 58 after playing a game where both teams combined for 205 or more points, while the Pelicans are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take New Orleans! |
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01-04-16 | Celtics -7 v. Nets | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month on Celtics - The Celtics will be out for revenge against the Nets, as they just lost at home to Brooklyn 97-100 in their last game. This came on the heels of an ugly 104-112 home loss to the Lakers. Needless to say we can expect a max effort here from Boston in this spot. The same can't be said for the Nets, who also find themselves in a tough spot playing their first game without starting point guard Jarrett Jack, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL in the win over Boston. Brooklyn hasn't won consecutive games in almost a month (12/8 and 12/10) and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Boston on the other hand is a team that has thrived on the road. The Celtics are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games. They are also 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games when playing with double-revenge and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outscoring opponents on average by 3+ points/game are 48-19 (72%) ATS since 1996 after allowing 55 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take Boston! |
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12-29-15 | Hawks v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Rockets - The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as basically a pick'em at home against the Hawks. Houston has won 7 straight at home, including an impressive 88-84 win over the Spurs in their last home game. The Rockets did lose their last game at New Orleans 108-110, but that was a tough spot on the road with no rest after laying it all on the line against San Antonio on Christmas Day. The key here is that loss has created some value with Houston, who comes in well rested with 2 days off before this matchup. Atlanta on the other hand is in a horrible scheduling spot. The Hawks played last night in a hard fought 87-93 loss at Indiana and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back road set and 6th game overall in the last 10 days. Rockets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 when playing with 2 days of rest, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a game where they failed to cover and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in last 4 when playing on no rest. Take Houston! |
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12-25-15 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 83-89 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Christmas Day Vegas Insider on UNDER These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-3-1 in the Cavs last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-1 in Cleveland's last 7 off a SU, 11-4 in the Warriors last 15 against the Central Division, and 15-7-2 in their last 24 home games. Take the UNDER! |
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12-23-15 | Mavs v. Nets UNDER 199 | Top | 119-118 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Month on Mavs/Nets UNDER I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here between the Mavericks and Nets tonight. Dallas won't be looking to push the pace offensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, especially after using up a ton energy last night at Toronto trying to rally from a 13-point halftime deficit. The Mavericks also haven't been playing great offensively of late, as they have scored 99 or less in 3 straight. It doesn't figure to get any better against the Nets, as Dallas lost starting point guard Deron Williams to a hamstring injury against the Raptors. They also aren't expected to have backup point guard Devin Harris, leaving them thin at the point and thus must play at a slower pace. The Nets are coming off a 105-102 win at Chicago, but this is a team that is not great offensively. Brooklyn had scored 97 or less in each of their previous 4 and have only cracked the century mark 4 time sin their last 14 games. UNDER is 36-17 in the Mavericks last 53 games against a bad team like the Nets, who have won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is also 10-4 in Dallas' last 14 against an opponent coming off a 100-point game and 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games after scoring 100 or more. UNDER is also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 13 against the Western Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 at home. Take the UNDER! |
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12-22-15 | Pistons v. Heat UNDER 194.5 | Top | 93-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Total of the Month on UNDER The books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Pistons and Heat, which isn't a big surprise given Detroit has played in 3 straight games where 200+ points were scored, including a 4-overtime thriller at Chicago in their last game where 191 combined points were scored. Miami also comes in off a high-scoring game, as they defeated the Blazers 116-109 at home. The key here is that this game is being played in Miami and the Heat should be able to dictate the tempo. Miami is only scoring 96.8 ppg on the season and allowing just 94.9 ppg. Detroit only averages 99.0 ppg on the road and should come out with a lot of energy on defense after a 3-day break. These two teams played earlier this season in Detroit and combined for just 185 points and that was with the Pistons exploding for 60 points in the 1st half. It's also worth noting that Detroit won that first meeting 104-81, as the UNDER is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10 when revenging a road loss and 7-0 in Miami's last 7 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. UNDER is also 11-0 in Miami's last 11 after allowing 105 or more points in 2 straight games, 16-4 in Detroit's last 20 road games after playing their last game as a road dog and 9-1 in their last 10 road games when playing 4 or less gams in 10 days. Take the UNDER! |
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12-18-15 | Hawks v. Celtics -4 | Top | 109-101 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Celtics - I think we are seeing some great value here on Boston as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawks. The Celtics come into this game having lost back-to-back games, but haven't dropped 3 straight since the opening week of the season. Keep in mind Boston's two losses came at home against the red-hot Cavaliers and then at Detroit on no rest. Expect to see a highly motivated Celtics team take the floor tonight. Atlanta comes into this game off a 21-pont blowout win at home against the 76ers, which is definitely playing into this small line. However, the Hawks are a team that has not been playing well and shouldn't get any credit for beating a horrible Philadelphia team. Even with the win Atlanta is just 7-10 in their last 17 games. The home team has had a decisive edge in this series. Boston won at home 106-93 on 11/13 and Atlanta returned the favor with a 121-97 win at home on 11/24. The home team has now won 6 of the last 7 overall. The Celtics are 40-27 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and are a perfect 2-0 ATS off a road loss by 3-points or less. Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a S& win, 0-2 ATS off a home win where they scored 110 or more points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record. Take Boston! |
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12-16-15 | Hornets v. Magic UNDER 196.5 | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast Total of the Month on Hornets/Magic UNDER The books have set this total too high for this division matchup. Both of these teams come into this game playing extremely well on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing just 91.6 ppg over their last 5 and Orlando is giving up just 95.4 ppg in their last 5. Just 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Southeast and that should have both playing with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball. We have seen several low-scoring games when these two face off against division opponents. Charlotte has seen an average combined score of 188.6 in their 5 division games and the Magic average a combined score of just 191 in division matchups. It's also worth noting that each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 196 or less with both games in Orlando finishing with 188 or less. UNDER is 12-2-2 in the Hornets last 16 against an opponent who scored 100+ points in their previous games, 11-4 in their last 15 following a SU loss and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 home games, 5-1-1 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 division games. Take the UNDER! |
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12-14-15 | Rockets -4 v. Nuggets | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Game of the Month on Rockets - It might not seem like much, but with a win Houston can move above .500 for the first time this season. I believe it's a big deal for the Rockets, who have put their ugly struggles behind them and started playing up to their potential. Houston is 7-2 over their last 9 games a very profitable 5-1 ATS in their last 6. One of the reasons we are seeing a small line here is the fact that the Denver has already beat the Rockets twice this season. They won 107-98 as a 6.5-point home dog on 11/13 and 105-85 as a 10.5-point road dog on 10/28. That double-revenge works more in the favor of the Rockets than the Nuggets and it's important to note that both of those victories came prior to Houston's recent surge. Denver has historically been a good home team, but that's not the case this season. The Nuggets are just 4-7 at home and were fortunate to win their last home game in a 111-108 overtime win against Minnesota (trailed by 15 at half). Denver is just 3-9 in their last 12 and all 3 wins came by 3-points or less (easily could be riding 12-game losing streak). While the Nuggets haven't played since Friday, they are just 3-14 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing with 2 days of rest. Denver is also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 8-18 in their last 26 as a home dog. Adding to this, we see that favorites revenging 2 losses as a favorite are 133-81 (70%) ATS when coming off a home win since 1996. Take Houston! |
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12-11-15 | Wizards v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Pelicans - It's been about as bad a start to the season as you could imagine for the Pelicans, who surprised just about everyone when they snuck into the Western Conference playoffs last year. A big reason for New Orleans' struggles has been injuries and that's where the value lies in the Pelicans laying just 2.5-points at home against the Wizards. New Orleans is almost back to full strength. Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole returned recently and they are expected to get back Kendrick Perkins, who has been sidelined since October. While the return of Evans and Cole didn't pay off immediately, the Pelicans did have an impressive 114-108 win at home over the Cavaliers last Friday. While they followed that up with a 93-111 loss to the Celtics, that's the only game New Orleans has played in the last 7 days. The Pelicans are fresh, hungry and extremely motivated. While New Orleans is getting healthy, the Wizards are dealing with numerous injuries right now, most notably in the front court. Nene and Drew Gooden are both expected to be out and Kris Humphries is questionable. Being thin in the front court is not what you want against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans. I look for Davis to dominate this game and let's not forget the Wizards are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Washington is 11-22 ATS in their last 33 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Pelicans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team with a winning road record and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games played on Friday night. Take New Orleans! |
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12-09-15 | Magic v. Suns -4 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Game of the Year on Suns - I think we are getting some exceptional value here on the Suns as a mere 4-point home favorite against the Magic. Phoenix has lost 8 of their last 10 games, but will be taking the floor with a ton of confidence after a thrilling 103-101 win at Chicago last time out, where the Suns outscored the Bulls by 18 points in the 4th quarter for the improbable win. While Phoenix's 2-8 record of their last 10 games is concerning, we can pinpoint their poor play to a brutal schedule, as 9 of their last 11 games have come on the road and one of their home games was against the Warriors. This is an ideal bounce back spot for Phoenix off that big win in Chicago and they are catching the Magic in a horrible spot. Orlando is simply getting too much respect here due to the fact that they have won 6 of their last 7 and are 6-0-1 ATS during this stretch. However, the Magic are primed for a letdown in what will be their 5th straight road game in the last 9 days. Adding to this is the fact that Orlando is playing in the 2nd game of back-to-back set that saw them play last night in the thin air of Denver. They pulled out an ugly 85-74 win, but you could see the signs of fatigue. I believe they have nothing left in the tank and will get blown out by a hungry Suns team tonight. Suns are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 off a road win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Orlando on the other hand is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing less than 75 points and 0-1 ATS this season after scoring 85 or less. Take Phoenix! |
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12-08-15 | Thunder v. Grizzlies UNDER 203 | Top | 125-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER These two teams combined for 236 points in the Grizzlies 122-114 win at home back on Nov. 16 and it's resulted in an inflated total in the rematch. That was only the second time in the last 10 meetings that these two teams combined for more than 200 points. One of the big reasons that we consistently see lower-scoring games between these two teams, is the familiarity they have of one another. This will be the 40th meeting between these two teams since the beginning of the 2010-11 season, which is the most of any two teams in the league during this stretch. While the first meeting saw a lot of offense, I think both defenses come to play this time around. Memphis has held 6 of their last 8 opponents under 100 points and the Thunder have allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that both teams come in not shooting the ball well, especially from long distance. The Grizzlies are just 24.9% from the 3-point line in their last 4 games and OKC is only hitting 29.6% in their last 4. UNDER is 13-4 in the Grizzlies last 17 home games off a home win, 17-5 in their last 22 after a close win by 3 points or less and 15-5 in their last 20 with a total set at 200 or more points. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 road games against a team that has won more than 60% of their home games, and 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! |