Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-06-10 | Boston Celtics +6 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Celtics +6
Boston is a team of response, and there are plenty of trends that support this claim. In fact, Boston is 9-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 103.7 to 92.8. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. The fact that this proud Celtics defense allowed more than 100 points for just the second time in their last 10 games will motivate them also. In fact, the Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Plus, the extra rest gives the veteran Celtics plenty of time to recuperate and to refocus, and it is also certainly worth noting that the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. We also can't ignore the fact that the Celtics are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and that 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams have been decided by a single points. Look for Boston to bounce back strong tonight. |
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05-29-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +1.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
5* Game 6 *BEST BET* (TNT) on Lakers +1.5
I know the Suns are back at home, but it will be very tough for them to recover from the blow that Ron Artest delivered to them with his buzzer beater. After watching Boston move on the Finals last night, the Lakers will be that much more focused to get the job done here so Boston won't have a huge edge in the rest department. The Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Lakers are 37-15 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 108.8 to 101.8. Take the Lakers. |
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05-28-10 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -3 | Top | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year (ESPN) on Celtics -3
Boston has a very sour taste in its mouth after Game 5. Kendrick Perkins wrongfully ejected w/ 2 bogus technical foul calls, Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels enduring concussions and Rasheed Wallace twisting his back. Perkins will be back on the court tonight as one of his techs was rescinded, but Davis and Wallace are both game time decisions and Daniels is likely out. Boston was the more physical team through the first three games of this series, then it was severely outdone in the physicality department in Game 5. Look for Boston to respond at home tonight. Right away, I love the fact that favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are an incredible 84-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 40-16 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in these situations are winning by an average of 10 and 10.3 points respectfully. Boston is also 23-11 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons, winning by 8.6 points on average in these spots. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Look for Boston to bounce back strong and win this series tonight while covering the number in the process. |
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05-25-10 | Los Angeles Lakers -1 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 106-115 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
5* Game 4 *BEST BET* on Lakers -1
We cashed in with the Suns in Game 4 in their return home as I expected them to play better defense and to feed off the energy of their home crowd. That's exactly what happened, but there were some aberrations in Game 3 that lead me to believe that the Lakers will win tonight. First off, Robin Lopez scored 20 points, nearly 12 above his average. Secondly Amare Stoudemire scored 42 points, nearly 19 over his average. Lastly, the Lakers committed 17 turnovers and the Suns only committed 7. I don't expect Lopez and Stoudemire to have the same kind of nights in Game 4 and I don't expect the Suns to win the turnover battle so convincingly. With these numbers returning closer to normalcy tonight, I think the Lakers will prevail. Remember, LA has had the Suns' number, winning 11 of 15 meetings over the last 3 seasons and covering the spread in 10 of those games. I addition, Nash played a few more minutes that he is accustomed to playing and he was further banged up in Game 3, suffering a broken nose. I don't see him being quite as fresh and effective tonight either. The favorite has covered the number in the last 4 meetings and I look for this trend to continue. |
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05-22-10 | Orlando Magic +4 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 71-94 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
5* Game 3 *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Magic +4
Down 0-2, it's do-or-die time for the Magic and I expect them to do tonight. This series has been all about the underdog and the road team from a point spread standpoint. In fact, the underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We also can't overlook how good Orlando has been on the road - 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. From a point spread standpoint, the long layoff in between games does not bode well for Boston either as the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Orlando has either won or lost by 4 or fewer points in each of the last 4 meetings so I will jump all over the Magic as they bounce back in Boston tonight. |
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05-19-10 | Phoenix Suns +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
5* 2010 NBA Playoffs Game of the Year (TNT) on Suns +7
The Suns have not lost back-to-back games in these playoffs. I expect them to show up extremely motivated to even this series tonight. In LA's first round Game 2, they barely survived the Thunder, lucky to get a 3-point win. In their second round Game 2, they defeated the Jazz by just 8 points. Phoenix is a better team than both the Thunder and the Jazz. It is explosive enough to hand the Lakers their first home loss of the playoffs tonight. Phoenix must do a better job defensively and they will. But let's face it. The Lakers just shot out of their minds in Game 1. They shot 58% from the field, including 47% from 3-point range. Meanwhile, Phoenix (a good 3-point shooting team), was only 5 of 22 from 3-point land. I expect the Suns to win this 3-point shooting battle tonight as LA cools off considerably. Right away I love our chances when you consider that plays on any team with a shooting percentage of 48% or better on the season, after a game where that team allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher, are 35-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. They are also are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. It is also important to note that the Lakers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the Suns and the points. |
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05-18-10 | Boston Celtics +7.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Celtics +7.5
Game 1 was no fluke. Ever since Boston was blown out at home in Game 3 of its Eastern Conference semifinal series with Cleveland, it has been brilliant. We're talking 4-0 straight up and against the spread with 3 outright wins as an underdog, and two of those came as a dog of 7 or more points. Boston's defense has been terrific, holding its opponents to 88 or fewer points in its last 4 games and 6 of its last 8. And Boston has shown that it can defend the Magic better than just about any other team in the league when you consider that it has held the Magic to 96 or fewer points in 9 of the last 10 meetings. Orlando had rolled to 8 straight wins in the playoffs and 14 straight overall before losing to Boston in Game 1. Now, Boston's confidence continues to soar while the Magic's takes a hit for the first time in a long time. The Celtics are 57-28-2 ATS in their last 87 games as a road underdog, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Plus, the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Bet Boston. |
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05-16-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 189.5 | Top | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Magic UNDER 189.5
This matchup has been an Unders machine as the Celtics are one of the few teams in the NBA that have proven they can defend the Magic consistently. In fact, we have seen 7 of the last 8 meetings play to the Under and 9 of the last 12 meetings in Orlando finish Under. And I also love the fact that road teams with a total of 180 to 189.5 points revenging a same season loss versus an opponent, if that opponent is off 2 or more consecutive road wins, are 72-36 to the Under since 1996, including 18-5 over the last 3 seasons and a perfect 1-0 this season. We are only seeing 181.1 total points scored on average in these games. The Under is 7-1 in the Celtics' last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and also 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pound the Under. |
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05-13-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 196.5 | Top | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator (ESPN) on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 196.5
Boston doesn't want to go back to Cleveland for a Game 7, and Cleveland is fighting for its playoff life. In other words, we can expect a very physical, defensive minded Game 6 in Boston tonight. Cleveland just gave up 120 points on its home floor so you can bet it will be tightening the screws defensively. And we can't ignore the fact that the Under is 28-13 in the Celtics' last 41 games following a win of more than 10 points. In addition, Boston is on a 17-4 Unders run after a huge blowout win by 30 or more, and we are only seeing 182.7 total points scored on average in these spots. Also, the Under is 7-1 in the Cavaliers' last 8 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 26-12 in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss at home. Pound the Under. |
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05-11-10 | Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 | Top | 120-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* (TNT) on Cavaliers -7.5
Over the last 3 seasons, Cleveland is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in home games against the Celtics, winning those games by 8 points on average. In Cleveland's last 7 home wins against Boston, we have seen winning margins of 8, 11, 31, 15, 5, 11 and 24 points for a 15-point average margin of victory. So right away, if we think Cleveland will win this game, recent history tells us that there is a very good chance it will win it by 8 or more points. Plus, plays on any team revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, are 74-38 ATS the last 5 seasons. Cleveland especially has been great when coming off a road defeat. In fact, Cleveland 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.9 points in these games. It is also 23-9 ATS off a road loss over the last 2 seasons period, winning by an average of 10.3 points in these games. In addition, the Cave are 16-6 ATS when listed as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 12.7 points in these games. Both of these teams have made adjustments following defeats in this series, resulting in big wins the following game, and I expect this trend to continue. |
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05-07-10 | Phoenix Suns v. San Antonio Spurs -6.5 | Top | 110-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Spurs -6.5
This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on a team that is down 0-2 in a series, but that's exactly what the books want Joe Public to think here. They have set a line that has the public piling on Phoenix and they'll look to score big when the Spurs cover this number. San Antonio is a different team at home where they are winning their games by an average of 8.2 points this season. Plus, it's not like this is the first time the Spurs have ever faced a two-game deficit in the playoffs. They will show no panic and they will be ready to answer the call. In addition, I have spotted a system that applies to home favorites who have lost 3 straight games to an opponent, provided both teams have winning percentages between 60 and 75%, which these two teams do. This system is an impressive 77-37 ATS since 1996, producing a winning margin of 7.7 points on average. I also love that the Spurs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and 21-6-3 ATS in their last 30 playoff games as a favorite. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. This is a must-win game for San Antonio and I fully expect this veteran team to rise to the occasion. Lay the number. |
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05-06-10 | Atlanta Hawks +10 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 98-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Hawks +10
Expect the Hawks to show up in a big way tonight after being brutally embarrassed in Game 1. After a huge blowout loss like that, we can expect the public to continue to pile on the Magic in Game 2, but the numbers say we should do otherwise. In fact, plays on road teams revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 29-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have consistently been undervalued and are covering the number because they are only losing by 4.4 points on average. Plus, Atlanta is 12-3 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. greater than 70%) this season and is 8-1 ATS after being held to 85 points or less this season. The Hawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Look for the Hawks to take the Magic down to the wire tonight. |
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05-04-10 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 199 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Jazz/Lakers UNDER 199
7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams have finished Under the number with Game 1 of this series finally breaking the Unders streak. Game 1 only finished a few points over the number despite the Jazz allowing the Lakers to shoot over 53 percent from the field. I don't see that happening again tonight. Plus, the Lakers are well-known for playing a slower pace in the postseason than they do in the regular season. As a result, the Under is 20-8 in the Lakers' last 28 playoff games as a favorite and 16-5 in their last 21 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Under is also 12-5 in the Lakers' last 17 home games. The fact that odds makers have come back with basically the same line that was set for Game 1, despite that game going over, tells me that they are looking for action on the over. And they are getting it. We'll gladly go against the grain as both of these teams really buckle down defensively in what should be a very intense Game 2. Bet the Under. |
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05-03-10 | Boston Celtics +6.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 104-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Celtics +6.5
The Celtics led by 11 points in the third quarter of Game 1, and they had their chances down the stretch, but did not cash in on their opportunities. They'll come back in Game 2 more focused and hungrier. Why am I so confident of this you ask? Boston is 15-3 straight up following their last 18 losses in the playoffs. And as we enter Game 2, we see that Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. defeat and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS defeat. Conversely, Cleveland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games following a S.U. win. This Cleveland team has been consistently overvalued at home and it is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games as a result. It is also just 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Celtics are an impressive 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog and I'll take them in that role here tonight. |
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05-02-10 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers -7 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers -7
The Jazz made relatively easy work of Denver in round one, but they are now up against a team that has had their number. The Lakers are 3-1 against the Jazz this season with all 3 of those wins coming by double digits. In the Lakers' 2 home meetings in this matchup, they won by scores of 101-77 and 106-92. The Lakers play way better defense than the Nuggets and they are a much more disciplined offensive team. We can't ignore the fact that the Jazz are just 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog overall. It is also worth noting that the Jazz are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Los Angeles against the Lakers. Take LA in Game 1. |
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04-30-10 | Atlanta Hawks -2 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 83-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Hawks -2
I think you'll all agree with me that Atlanta is the more talented team. Milwaukee has played harder and smarter the last 3 games and it has won them all as a result, but I can't see the more talented side losing 4 straight times. This is one of the most motivated spots I've seen the Hawks in all season. They are playing with triple revenge and facing elimination after completely blowing Game 5 in the closing minutes. If the Hawks have any heart at all, and I think they do, they'll win this game comfortably tonight. Road favorites that are out to revenge an upset loss as a home favorite are 77-37 ATS the last 14 seasons, including 4-1 ATS this season. The favorite is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings between these two teams. The Bucks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as an underdog. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a small favorite of 4.5 or less points. The Hawks have the better players and the motivation, and this should result in a big win tonight. |
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04-28-10 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -7 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Nuggets -7
The Lakers returned home after back-to-back defeats to the Thunder and took care of business last night. The Mavs also returned home after 3 straight defeats to the Spurs and gave San Antonio a beating last night. I expect the Nuggets to follow suit here in this do-or-die Game 5. First off, I love the fact that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 1 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 70-32 ATS the last 3 seasons, including 20-9 ATS this season. Denver has been sensational at home all season long, carrying a 35-8 record and an average winning margin of 8.8 points. In fact, Denver is an awesome 16-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 113.7 to 98.3 in these spots. When Utah has been catching big points on the road, it has been for good reason. The Jazz are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Jazz are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Denver. Pound the Nuggets. |
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04-25-10 | Dallas Mavericks +2.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 89-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Revenge Game of the Year on Mavs +2.5
Off back-to-back defeats, look for the Mavs to finally have their revenge today. Dallas is the best road team in the NBA, and it has had San Antonio's number. It is the deeper team as well. It let game 3 slip away, blowing a 68-59 second half lead, and I can't see it letting game 4 slip away as well. Right away you have to like the fact that the Mavericks are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings in San Antonio and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. In addition, the Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. Dallas is 20-9 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 6.3 points in these spots, and 13-4 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 8.6 in these spots. Bet the Mavs. |
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04-24-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +2 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 89-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers +2
All the talk is about how the youngest team in the NBA has hung with the defending NBA champs. Expect the Lakers to hush up that talk tonight with an outright win. The Lakers had Game 3 in the bag had Kobe not gone ice cold in the 4th, and I don't see him staying cold tonight. The Lakers want this one badly so they can go back to LA with a chance to close out the series. The Lakers have won 12 of their last 14 games against the Thunder so we shouldn't be ready to write the Lakers off after one loss. Plain and simple, this is a statement game for LA, and I expect it to make the statement that it is still the team to beat. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog and we'll take the points. |
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04-23-10 | Dallas Mavericks +3.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 90-94 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
5* Friday NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Mavericks +3.5
The Mavericks are the better team in this series, and I expect them to flex their muscles tonight. The Mavs are coming off an upset loss in Game 2, but that's not a bad situation for them to be in when you consider that they are 14-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 103 to 94.8 in these games. Meanwhile, San Antonio is just 6-15 ATS off a road win this season. Dallas is 27-14 on the road this season, which is good for the best road mark in the NBA. In other words, the Mavs can win on the road. They are an impressive 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Look for the Mavs to bounce back strong in Game 3. |
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04-22-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers +3.5
The Thunder were dumbfounded after game 2 because, as head coach Scott Brooks put it, they played as well as they have played all season and still came away with a loss. What's even harder to swallow is the fact that the Lakers didn't even play close to their best. Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol had big nights, but Lamar Odom, Ron Artest, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum didn't show up. The supporting cast will play much better tonight. Plus, expect Artest to play much better defense against Durant after letting him go off for 32 points. The Thunder had nothing to lose when playing in L.A. as not many expected them to steal a game anyway. But now they are back home, down 0-2, and you can bet they'll be pressing tonight knowing they need this one to give themselves a chance. The Lakers don't want this series to drag out. They would really like to get the sweep so Kobe and some of the other banged up guys can get some extra rest and treatment before their second round series. With this in mind, the Lakers will be very hungry and focused on the task at hand. Plus, the last time the Lakers visited Oklahoma City, they were embarrassed. The Thunder held them to only 75 points in a 16-point defeat. That loss will only serve as extra motivation for L.A. to show up tonight. It's not often you can get the Lakers catching points, but they have been a solid bet when you can. The Lakers are 33-18 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Take the Lakers and the points. |
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04-21-10 | San Antonio Spurs +3.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 102-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Spurs +3.5
The Spurs aren't going to go down without a fight. Dallas has won a lot of games at home this season, but it has not won them by much. In fact, Dallas is just 11-29 ATS in home games this season, only winning by 2.3 points on average. Dallas is also just 3-11 ATS in a home game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season, only winning these games by 1.4 points on average. The Mavericks are only 7-27-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Lastly, the Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Expect the Spurs to tighten the screws defensively and steal game 2. Take the points. |
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04-20-10 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics -1 | Top | 77-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Celtics -1
No Kevin Garnett tonight, no problem. Boston won Game 1 despite Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combining to go just 10 of 32 from the field. You can bet they won't shoot as poorly tonight, giving the Celtics more than enough offensive fire power to win without KG. Boston has had Miami's number, having won 6 in a row by 4 or more points. In fact, it is 11-1 against Miami the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 6-0 at home. Revenge has not been enough motivation for Miami to get the job done either. The Heat are just 6-19 ATS in road games when revenging 4 losses vs. an opponent in the last 2 years, losing in these spots by an average score of 85.6 to 95.7. The Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Look for the rest of the Celtics to rally in KG's absence to go up 2-0 tonight. |
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04-19-10 | Utah Jazz +7 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Jazz +7
I'll gladly take the generous amount of points here as I expect Game 2 to go right down to the wire with the Jazz having an excellent opportunity to win this one outright. I know Utah is now without Mehmet Okur in addition to Andrei Kirilenko, but Okur isn't a big loss on the defensive end, and that's where you'll see huge improvement from Utah tonight. The numbers don't lie: Utah is 16-4 ATS off a road loss this season, holding its opponents to just 99.3 points in these spots, 13-1 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points this season, holding its opponents to just 94.8 points in these situations, 8-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season, only allowing 99.2 points in these spots and 17-5 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season, clamping down to only give up 98.5 points in these spots. The Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss period. Utah is one of the very best bounce back teams in the NBA because of the way they up their intensity on defense following a loss, and I'll pound them in this bounce back spot tonight. |
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04-18-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers -7.5 | Top | 79-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* Blowout on Lakers -7.5
Look for the Lakers to send a message to the Thunder with a blowout win in Game 1. These two teams last faced off March 26th and the Lakers were crushed 75-91. That loss will serve as a motivator today. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, are 22-4 ATS since 1996, including 9-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. And teams in this situation are winning by 13.1 points on average. The playoffs are a different animal, something the experienced Lakers will be ready for and the youthful Thunder will not. Lay the points. |
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04-17-10 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Atlanta Hawks -8.5 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* Blowout on Hawks -8.5
Atlanta has gained some nice playoff experience the last couple years, and now it's ready to make a serious run at the Eastern Conference title. Last year's exit, an ugly 4-game sweep at the hand of Cleveland, will be the driving force this time around. Milwaukee is at a big disadvantage in the talent and depth department with starting center Andrew Bogut going down. The Hawks certainly have the athletes to really take advantage of his absence. The youth of Brandon Jennings will show in this series as well. The youngster is no doubt talented, but he still has a lot to learn about shot selection and running a team. The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Bucks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog. The Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Lay the points. |
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04-12-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder +2 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 95-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +2
If the Thunder have any hope of avoiding the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs, they need to win tonight. As if this isn't enough motivation, the Thunder lost to the lowly Warriors Sunday. Besides motivation, OKC catches a big break with Brandon Roy not expected to play tonight. This also has the look of a letdown spot for Portland after such an emotional win over the Lakers Sunday. OKC is a tremendous 25-7 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 104.4 to 97.7. The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog period. The Trail Blazers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Thunder. |
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04-11-10 | Portland Trail Blazers -2 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Blazers +4 (line of -2 in system was an error) With home court in the Western Conference already wrapped up, the Lakers can afford to continue to rest Kobe Bryant. If he does play, it won't be big minutes. This game means a lot more to the Blazers as they want to keep winning to avoid the No. 8 spot and the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. The Lakers would like to avoid Portland in the playoffs too as they have lost 9 of their last 10 at the Rose Garden. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. Pound Portland.
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04-10-10 | Boston Celtics +2 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 105-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
5* 2010 NBA Game of the Year on Celtics +2
I went against the Celtics last night with the 11.5-point underdog Wizards, who handed Bean Town a 10 point loss. The Celtics trailed by as many as 28 points. This is a veteran team with 3 Hall of Famers, and it was incredibly embarrassed last night. Look for the Celtics to save face by responding in a big way in Milwaukee. Boston should be further motivated by a 2-point defeat it suffered in Milwaukee last month. Motivation is a big part of this play, but the other big part has to do with the interior matchups. The Bucks are without arguably their best player, Andrew Bogut, and that opens things up for Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins to both have their way down low. I just can't see the Bucks overcoming the loss of Bogut in this game when you consider that he is averaging 25.0 points and 15.5 rebounds against the Celtics this season. He had 25 points and 17 rebounds in Milwaukee's 86-84 victory March 9. That's a lot of points and rebounds to make up for and I just don't see it getting done. While Boston is a veteran team, it has actually been quite successful when playing without any rest. In fact, the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on zero days rest. This team has been a cash cow in the road dog role too. The Celtics are 52-25-2 ATS in their last 79 games as a road underdog and 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Look for Boston to make a statement with a big win tonight. |
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04-09-10 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
5* Friday NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +4
Portland is playing well, but I give the edge to the Mavs in this highly motivated spot tonight. With a win, and a Spurs loss, the Mavs can clinch the Southwest Division. Plus, they are still battling for the No. 2 seed in the West. In addition, the Mavs have lost all 3 prior meetings to the Blazers this season so they will be very hungry to pay Portland back. The underdog has dominated this matchup. In fact, the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Trail Blazers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll take the Mavs and the points. |
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04-08-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +2 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 96-98 | Push | 0 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Lakers +2
This is a tough spot for Denver playing back-to-back against a well-rested Lakers team that will be hungry after getting absolutely embarrassed by the Spurs Sunday. Any time you catch the Lakers in the underdog role, they are worth a look. In fact, they are 29-14-2 ATS in their last 45 games as a road underdog. Furthermore, the Lakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. In other words, this is a team that typically responds well. The Nuggets have been a fool's gold favorite as they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Plus, they are only 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on zero day's rest. With the Nuggets being a team the Lakers could end up seeing in the playoffs again, look for LA to send a message that it is clearly the best in the West tonight. |
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04-07-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Phoenix Suns -6.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
5* ESPN Game of the Year on Suns -6.5
The Spurs were lucky to come away with a win in Sacramento last night, but they will have no such luck on their side tonight. Tony Parker was cleared to play a bit sooner than expected, but he is not expected to play big minutes. This proves crucial here since George Hill is out injured. Without an experienced point guard to help the Spurs control the flow of the game, there will be nothing standing in the way of a rested Suns team making this one a track meet. This veteran Spurs team has struggled in back-to-backs to begin with and will certainly have its work cut out for itself against the most potent offensive team in the NBA. You have to love the fact that history is strongly on our side. Here's what I mean: plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are an impressive 71-32 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Spurs have played a lot of games in few days while the Suns haven't played since Saturday and this should catch up with San Antonio here. Plus, Phoenix is 15-3 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game, in the 2nd half of the season this season, winning in these spots by 10.1 points on average. The Suns are also an unbeaten 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Pound the Suns. |
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04-06-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Sacramento Kings +6.5 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
5* Never Lost Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6.5
The San Antonio Spurs were already playing without All-Star point guard Tony Parker. Now, they'll be playing without his replacement tonight. George Hill is expected to miss at least two games. He has averaged 15.8 points in 41 games as a starter this season. Now Manu Ginobli is really the only guy San Antonio has that can create for himself and others, and this has coach Popovich worried. "I'm a little worried about everything that's coming up now without George," coach Popovich said. "It's going to be difficult to ... have Manu (Ginobili) play the point in all these games coming up. We'll have to figure something out." It's likely they won't have that "something" figured out tonight. Plus, after a huge win over the Lakers to secure a playoff spot, this one has letdown written all over it. Kings Rookie of the Year candidate Tyreke Evans is coming off one of his worst performances, shooting just 2 of 12 and finishing with six points. Expect a big bounce back game from him tonight. San Antonio is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 88.5 to 96.8. The Kings have either won, or lost by 3 or fewer points in their last 5 home games against the Spurs. We'll take the points tonight. |
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04-04-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves +12 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +12
This is a big letdown spot for OKC after such a big win over the Mavs last night to clinch a playoff spot. Plus, the T-Wolves will be extremely motivated after getting crushed by OKC by 17 points the last time these two teams faced off. That lopsided affair was certainly out of the ordinary as Minnesota had either won or lost by 7 or fewer points in the 8 previous meetings. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, with a losing record, are 104-56 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 7-3 ATS this season. Plus, Minnesota is 20-8 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, only losing in these spots by 7.3 points on average. Lastly, the Timberwolves are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We |
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04-02-10 | Atlanta Hawks +5.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 88-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Hawks +5.5
The Hawks are extremely confident heading into this one after a convincing win over the Lakers. After getting punished in the playoffs by Cleveland last season, the Hawks have played the Cavs tough in two meetings this season but they have come up short in each. Look for the third time to be the charm for the Hawks tonight. The Cavs have struggled without Anderson Varejao, who won't be at full strength if he does go tonight. He is their energy guy and they have looked lethargic at times in each of their last two games without him in the lineup. Atlanta has played up to the level of its competition this season. In fact, it is 11-2 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 96.7 to 91.2. The Hawks are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Cavaliers are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Hawks and the points tonight. |
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04-01-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets -5 | Top | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Nuggets -5
It's gut check time for the Nuggets tonight. They return home after a 5-game road trip where they were brutal and I fully expect them to make a statement. The Nuggets are 30-6 at home on the season where they are winning by 9.4 points on average. The home team has dominated this matchup to the tune of 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Denver and 10-25-1 ATS in the last 36 meetings overall. The Nuggets are 52-25-3 ATS in their last 80 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Lay the points. |
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03-23-10 | Indiana Pacers v. Detroit Pistons -3 | Top | 98-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
5* Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons -3
The Pistons just fell in Indiana by 4 points on Friday so they will be hungry to return the favor at home tonight. That hunger should have grown after the Pistons turned in one of their worst performances of the season against the Cavs Sunday. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (line opened at -3.5) revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 37-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. a division opponent, off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival, are 32-11 ATS since 1996, including 11-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Indiana comes in having lost 9 straight road games with all of those losses coming by at least 4 points. In fact, the Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll lay the points with the Pistons. |
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03-09-10 | Miami Heat +3.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA System Play of the Month on Heat +3.5
I feel this is a great spot to back the Heat tonight. Miami is playing some of its best ball of the season, having won 3 straight with 2 of those wins coming over the Lakers and Hawks. So momentum is on its side. Motivation is also on its side. The last time these teams faced off, the Bobcats handed the Heat an embarrassing 104-65 loss. Trust me, that one is not sitting well with D. Wade and company. Expect a big game from Wade tonight and for the Heat to pull the upset. Plays on road underdogs revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 25-9 ATS the last 5 seasons, and when that dog is well rested only playing its 2nd game in 5 days, the situation improves to 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons (85.2%). These numbers are too telling to ignore. We'll play by the numbers tonight! |
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03-07-10 | Portland Trail Blazers +7 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 106-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Blazers +7
Expect the rested Blazers (haven't played since Mar. 3), winners of 5 of their last 6 SU & ATS, to play really well against their division rival tonight. While Denver is 27-5 at home this season, it is only 16-15-1 ATS in those games. Portland is 17-14 on the road, but a strong 20-10-1 ATS in those games. While Portland is rested, Denver is not. Carmelo has been receiving additional intravenous fluids because he's been so run down. In fact, Denver is only 5-13 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season, only winning in these spots 2.7 points on average. I also like that Portland is 8-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points per game in the 2nd half of the season this season. The Trail Blazers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite. We'll take the points. |
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03-05-10 | New Orleans Hornets +8 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
5* ESPN Game of the Month on Hornets +8
Off 3 straight defeats, the Hornets will be extremely hungry tonight, especially since one of those defeats was to the Spurs on Monday. The Spurs haven't played since that Monday game, but that could prove to be too much time off when you consider that they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. It's also hard to lay this many points with the Spurs when you consider that they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It makes it even more difficult to lay those points when you see that the Hornets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, one day of rest is usually sufficient for the Hornets as they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. We'll take the points. |
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03-04-10 | Utah Jazz +1.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Jazz +1.5
Rarely does Utah ever lose 2 in a row. In fact, the Jazz have not lost back-to-back games in 2 months. Utah will be the fresher team tonight, having not played since Monday (Phoenix just played last night). The Jazz will also be extremely motivated to avenge a loss to the lowly Clippers in their last game. Head-to-head, the Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Phoenix. As I already mentioned, they are a great bounce back team and are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss as a result. The Jazz are also 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Another thing that can't go unmentioned here is how much better Utah has been than Phoenix when playing on Thursday nights, a night that NBA teams don't play on often. The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games while the Suns are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 Thursday games. We'll take Utah tonight. |
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03-03-10 | Memphis Grizzlies +2 v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +2
I really believe Memphis is the better team and it will be hungry to prove it after 2 prior losses to the Hornets this season. In the latest matchup between these two teams, New Orleans overcame a 21-point third-quarter deficit to win 109-102 in overtime. In the teams' first matchup this season, New Orleans rallied from a nine-point deficit and won 113-111 at home on James Posey's layup with 1.1 seconds left. Those two losses, which should have been wins, have to be sitting very sour with the Grizzlies. They will be the driving force for a Memphis win this evening. Memphis has won 4 straight on the road. The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Plus, the Hornets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Take Memphis. |
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03-01-10 | Dallas Mavericks v. Charlotte Bobcats -2 | Top | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Bobcats -2
This is a tough spot for the Mavs, who just played last night, and will be playing their 9th game in 14 days. The Bobcats find themselves in a much better spot, playing at home where they are an impressive 20-7 this season, and playing with 2 full days of rest. Charlotte will also be looking for a little bit of revenge here after falling at Dallas by 1 point in December. Right away, you have to like the fact that plays against underdogs playing on back-to-back days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 164-109 the last 5 seasons (60.1%). You also have to like the fact that Charlotte is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 97.8 to 90.6. The Bobcats are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Mavericks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing without any days rest. We'll take the Bobcats at home tonight. |
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02-28-10 | New Orleans Hornets +8 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 100-108 | Push | 0 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
5* Sunday Night NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Hornets +8
New Orleans has showed up against elite competition. Just this month, we've seen the Hornets play the Magic to a 6-point game at Orlando to cover as a 9.5-point dog. We just saw the Hornets beat the Magic outright as a 5-point dog Friday. We have also seen them defeat the Celtics here recently and cover the number against the Cavs. The Hornets are very confident right now, even without Chris Paul, because of how well Darren Collison is playing. Plus, New Orleans has played the Mavs extremely tough, having won 8 of the last 11 meetings. You also have to like the fact that New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under coach Bower. The Hornets are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 1 days rest and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Mavericks are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite and 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points. |
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02-27-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers -1.5 | Top | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Blowout of the Month on Pacers -1.5
With Joakim Noah doubtful this evening, and with Indiana out for revenge after losing at Chicago this week, we'll take the rested Pacers in this revenge spot against a Bulls team that just played an emotionally and physically draining OT game last night. Right away, you have to like the Pacers when you consider that plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent, after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 64-32 ATS since 1996. The last time Indiana played the same team twice in the same week, it lost the first game (by 15 at Toronto) but then responded with a 15-point win in the second game. We'll lay the points here as I like Indiana by double digits. |
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02-26-10 | Detroit Pistons +10 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Underdog of the Month on Pistons +10
Tough spot for the Nuggets playing back-to-back after such an uptempo game last night. The Nuggets shot out of their mind last night, but those shots will have a tougher time falling with tired legs. This is a similar spot to last week for the Nuggets. After beating the Cavs, the Nuggets lost the next night by double digits to Washington as they were looking ahead to a game with Boston. Tonight, I think they get caught looking ahead to a showdown with the Lakers. Detroit has fared well against the Nuggets. In fact, it has won 7 straight and 21 of the last 25. The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 13-3 ATS in the last 16. The Nuggets are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on zero day's rest, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Detroit keeps this one within the number tonight. |
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02-23-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 204 | Top | 104-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Suns/Thunder UNDER 204
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games, are a perfect 15-0 this season. With Steve Nash not playing tonight, the Suns won't have as much success pushing the pace and their pick-n-roll game won't be nearly as smooth. Plus, Phoenix is 7-0 Under in the second half of the season this season and 10-0 Under in road games on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons. We'll bet the Under here. |
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02-22-10 | Indiana Pacers +9 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 82-91 | Push | 0 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
5* Monday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +9
I know Indiana has really struggled on the road this season, but it is coming off a nice confidence boosting win over the Rockets. Furthermore, this will be the Mavs 5th game in the last 7 days, making this a tough spot for a veteran team. Also, I have to think that Dallas will be much more concerned about Wednesday's showdown with the Lakers. With all this in mind, I really can't justify laying this many points when you consider that Dallas is just 5-20 ATS as a home favorite this season, only winning in these spots by an average of 1.5 points. Lastly, plays against home favorites, extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 22-4 ATS the last 5 seasons, 18-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. Take the points. |
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02-21-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 | Top | 109-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
5* Sunday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +6.5
The Thunder are coming off a taxing overtime win in New York last night so they are going to have a difficult time covering this number on the road tonight, especially against a division rival that has played them so tough. Minnesota has either won or lost by 5 or fewer points in 6 of the last 7 meetings. The only exception was a 7-point loss. The T-Wolves normally always get up for division games so it comes as no surprise that they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Northwest. Plus, they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. While the Thunder are a much improved team this season, I think it's still a lot to be asking this team to lay this many points very often, especially in today's spot. In fact, the Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. I think it is also worth noting that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games. We'll take the points. |
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02-19-10 | Dallas Mavericks +6.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 95-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
5* ESPN Game of the Month on Mavs +6.5
Dallas has had tremendous success against the Magic, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings with that lone loss coming by just 2 points. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the underdog in terms of the point spread as the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Magic are a team that have been very prone to losing in look ahead spots. In fact, they lost to Memphis on January 25th as a favorite with Boston up next, and they lost to Washington as a favorite on February 5th with Boston on deck again. With LeBron and the Cavs on deck, it will likely be difficult for the Magic to give complete focus to the task at hand. Also, plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 27-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points with the Mavs tonight. |
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02-18-10 | Denver Nuggets +7 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 118-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Game of the Year on Nuggets +7
Denver believes it can win a championship and it has certainly showed that to be a possibility in its biggest games this season. The Nuggets have won both of their meetings with the Lakers and they won their only meeting with the Cavs in a game Carmelo Anthony did not play in. Now, with coach George Karl announcing that he has cancer, I expect his boys to play even harder. I have to think that the Nuggets will be the more focused team tonight as the Cavs try to adjust to life with Antawn Jamison and life without Zydrunas Ilgauskas. It is not clear whether Jamison will play, but it is certain that Big Z won't be in the lineup and the Cavs will miss him. We saw how bad the Mavs looked in their first game after making a big trade, only scoring 86 points against the Thunder. Chemistry was an issue and I expect it to be an issue for Cleveland here. Plus, the Cavs are still expected to be without Mo Williams so quality depth is also an issue. The Nuggets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Nuggets are also 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll take the points. |
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02-17-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
5* Never Lost NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Mavs UNDER 217.5
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games are 51-15 the last 5 seasons including a Perfect 10-0 this season. In addition, plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Dallas in this case; cold team failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, are 26-4 since 1996 and 10-1 the last 3 seasons. With the Mavs still adjusting to their new teammates, I don't think they will have enough offensive cohesiveness to push this one over the number. |
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02-05-10 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 202.5 | Top | 126-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year (ESPN) on Nuggets/Lakers UNDER 202.5
The Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in LA. The Under is also 6-1 in the Nuggets' last 7 road games and 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The last time these two teams met, clear back in November, we only saw 184 total points scored with the Nuggets holding the Lakers to just 79 points. The Lakers have not soon forgotten that embarrassing loss and I expect them to really buckle down on the defensive end tonight. But on top of the motivation, the star power in this matchup is banged up. The Nuggets are expected to be without Carmelo Anthony once again and Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. We'll pound the Under. |
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02-02-10 | Golden State Warriors +7 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 97-119 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Public Massacre of the Year on Warriors +7
The Warriors may only by 4-20 on the road this season, but they are 13-10-1 ATS in those games, and they have been downright deadly lately. In fact, the Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It's also hard to justify laying this many points with the Rockets when you consider that they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, the Rockets have struggled to defend the uptempo Warriors in recent meetings, allowing Golden State to score 107 or more points in each of the last 3 meetings while not winning by more than 4 points. Plus, I love the fact that the public is all over Houston here, reaffirming that we have the smart money side. Take the points. |
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01-28-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 190 | Top | 94-96 | Push | 0 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Total of the Year on Celtics/Magic UNDER 190
This matchup has been an Unders machine with the last 6 meetings playing to the Under and 6 of the last 7 meetings in Orlando coming in Under the number. I fully expect this trend to continue this evening as these two Eastern Conference powers engage in a defensive battle. The Magic are struggling from the field, and as a result, we've seen them play to the Under in 5 of their last 6 and 8 of their last 10. Boston has played to the Under in 4 of its last 5 as well. One thing we can usually count on is Boston bringing the "D" against top notch competition, especially now that K.G. is back. In fact, Boston is 11-1 Under in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons and we are only seeing an average of 177.8 points scored in the games. The Under is also 5-0 in the Magic's last 5 games playing on 2 day's rest, 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record, and 6-0 in the Celtics' last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Under. |
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01-27-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 | Top | 96-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Thunder -5.5
The Thunder are one of the most resilient teams in the NBA so I expect them to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column tonight after back-to-back defeats. In fact, OKC is 16-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season and 9-1 ATS off a road loss this season. This is also a great spot for the Thunder as they have had 3 days to rest while the Bulls are playing their 4th road game in 6 days. The Thunder are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 3 or more day's rest and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It's been a good road trip for the Bulls, but expect them to fall SU & ATS tonight against the much fresher Thunder. |
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01-26-10 | Milwaukee Bucks +7 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
5* 43-0 ATS Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +7
It's hard not to like the Bucks catching this many points in Dallas tonight when you consider that the Mavs are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. And that's not all. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. And there's more. Dallas is 0-7 ATS this season at home when facing up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game. All together, we have a 43-0 ATS Angle in our favor tonight. In addition, it is also worth mentioning that the Bucks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings with Dallas and the underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the points tonight. |
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01-22-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 185 | Top | 95-98 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
5* NBA "Total" Dominator of the Month on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 185
When Kevin Garnett went down with an injury, the Boston Celtics lost their identity as a shutdown defensive team. Well guess who's back? Garnett returns to the lineup tonight and I expect his presence to provide the C's with a big lift no matter how much he plays. Portland has been a strong defensive team on the road, only allowing 93.2 ppg, but it hasn't been able to do much on the offensive end, scoring only 93.8 ppg. With Brandon Roy not in the lineup tonight, I expect the Blazers to struggle offensively against a Celtics squad primed and ready to dig in on the defensive end. The Blazers are really hurting on the interior with both Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla's absences leaving them paper thin. Expect Boston to really slow this game down to take advantage of scoring opportunities inside tonight. Portland is going to want to make this game a track meet and I just don't see the Celtics letting the Blazers control the tempo on their home floor. Each of these two teams have played to the Under in 3 straight and the last two head-to-head matchups have averaged only 174 points. We'll take the Under. |
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01-20-10 | Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 191 | Top | 65-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Heat/Bobcats UNDER 191
This system can't be ignored tonight: Plays Under on any team, Miami in this case, after a blowout win by 30 or more points against an opponent which led in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half, are 14-1 the last 3 seasons (already 2-0 this season). Charlotte is the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing only 92.9 ppg, and that number goes down to 91 ppg when playing at home. Both of these teams have played some high scoring games of late, but that is because they were playing teams that prefer to play uptempo basketball. These two teams prefer to play in the half court. Bet the Under. |
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01-18-10 | Orlando Magic +6.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 92-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Magic +6.5
The Orlando Magic have fallen flat on their faces the last 2 games with disappointing performances against Denver and Portland, but now they've had 2 days to rest and prepare for the team that beat them in last year's Finals. Rest has been a very important betting angle for the Magic when playing out on the road. In fact, the Magic are 14-3 ATS in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 102.3 to 96.4. These team has also responded rather well to being embarrassed. Orlando is 16-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 101.6 to 93.5. We also have to figure in that the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings against the Lakers in Los Angeles and the Underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. We'll take the points. |
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01-15-10 | Orlando Magic -4.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 87-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
5* Friday NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Magic -4.5
With all the injury problems of the Blazers, I just can't see them getting the job done against a hungry Magic team tonight. The Blazers are really hurting inside right now with Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden out. The news gets worse as Brandon Roy is listed as doubtful for tonight's contest. Orlando was just embarrassed in Denver in its last game, and I expect that loss to provide more than enough motivation for the Magic to get the job tonight. Expect a big game from Howard since the Blazers are missing their key frontline guys. Here's the clincher: plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, good team outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 33-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. For the record this system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Take Orlando. |
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01-12-10 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
5* Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Grizzlies -5
Sunday the Clippers came through for us for an easy win over Miami. That win came at home where they have won 6 in a row. Expect a different story on the road tonight where they have lost 4 straight. The Clippers are just 12-27 ATS in their last 39 road games, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies have won 5 straight at home and they will be extremely motivated tonight as they look to bounce back from a 2-point loss at Charlotte. The Clippers have visited Memphis once already this season and the Grizzlies handed them a 15-point loss as a 5.5-point favorite and I expect a similar result tonight. The Grizzlies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Grizz. |
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01-08-10 | Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks -3 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month (ESPN) on Hawks -3
Atlanta gets up for the C's unlike any other team. They already defeated Boston by 11 points in the Garden, and I like them to come through again here against a Celtics squad playing without Kevin Garnett. Boston has dropped 3 of its last 4 road games, needing OT to win at Miami Wednesday, and the Heat aren't as good as the Hawks in my book. Atlanta is 13-4 SU & 12-5 ATS at home this season and I think home court will treat them well again tonight. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Celtics are only 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Atlanta desperately wants to assert itself as just as much of a contender as Orlando, Cleveland, and Boston in the East. They take another step toward doing so tonight. |
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01-04-10 | Atlanta Hawks -109 v. Miami Heat | Top | 75-92 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* Monday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks pk
After 3 straight losses, expect a rested Hawks team that has had Miami's number to get back in the win column tonight. The Heat have not been able to match up well with the athletic ability of the Hawks in recent years. In fact, Atlanta has won 4 of the last 5 meetings by at least 10 points. The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Hawks are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 Monday games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. We'll take Atlanta tonight. |
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12-25-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Los Angeles Lakers -5 | Top | 102-87 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
5* Christmas Day NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers -5
While the Cavs would love to make a statement with a win here, I just don't see it happening. This will be Cleveland's 4th road games in 6 days with Wednesday's overtime game with Sacramento really taking a toll. The Lakers haven't played since the 22nd so they will have the big edge in terms of fresh legs. The Lakers won both meetings last season by double digits, and I can make a strong argument that they are now better with Ron Artest, while Cleveland seems to have taken a small step back. I won't be surprised if Shaq has a good game as he will be motivated to play his former team, but at the end of the day, the Lakers just have too much fire power with Gasol, Bryant, Bynum, Odom, and Artest. Cleveland had tons of trouble matching up with LA's size defensively last season and we saw the trouble it had again in the playoffs when facing the Magic. Size and length will prevail again here. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. This line is soft. Take LA. |
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12-23-09 | Utah Jazz v. Miami Heat | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
5* Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Heat pk
I'll back a rested Heat team at home that has had Utah's number tonight, especially since the Jazz have played a lot of games in few days. The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Miami. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and I expect them to bounce back here against a Jazz team that is just 5-8 on the road. Take Miami. |
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12-22-09 | Oklahoma City Thunder +10 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 108-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +10
The Thunder are an incredible 10-0 ATS after a game where they did not cover the number this season, bouncing back to win by an average score of 103.7 to 93.7 in these spots. The Thunder will be lacking no motivation tonight after falling to the Lakers 85-101 exactly 1 month ago. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and they are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Los Angeles against the Lakers. Take the points tonight. |
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12-19-09 | Utah Jazz v. Charlotte Bobcats -3 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
5* Saturday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats -3
Tough spot for the Jazz playing back-to-back against a Bobcats team that is well rested and has been strong at home all season. The Cats are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season while Utah is just 4-7 SU & ATS on the road. Charlotte is a perfect 2-0 SU & ATS at home against the Jazz the last 2 seasons, winning those games by 7 points on average. Plus, Utah is just 8-18 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 101.2 to 107.5, and just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 back-to-backs. The Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Lastly, the Jazz are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Lay the number. |
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12-18-09 | Detroit Pistons v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5 | Top | 98-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Thunder -5
Detroit is really banged up with Tayshaun Prince out and Rip Hamilton and Ben Gordon listed as questionable. Even Rodney Stuckey is not at 100% percent. Even if Hamilton and Gordon are able to go, they won't be healthy enough to drop a big night on the Thunder. Detroit is just 3-10 on the road this season and it has lost back-to-back road games by 11 and 8 points. The Thunder have lost 3 in a row so they will be very hungry to get back in the win column tonight. It's not that the Thunder are playing bad, they have just come up against superior teams (Cleveland, Denver, Dallas) and they will be excited to go up against an opponent they believe they are better than tonight. The Thunder have won the last two meetings in this series by 10 and 8 points and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against the Pistons. It has also been a money play to take the Thunder after a game where they failed to cover the spread as they are a perfect 9-0 ATS in this role this season, winning by an average score of 103.1 to 93.2 in these games. The Thunder are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder. |
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12-12-09 | Phoenix Suns v. Denver Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
5* Saturday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -8.5
The public is on the Suns here and that is right where the books want them. Phoenix is in a tough spot, having just played a hard-fought game against the Magic last night. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are back home where they are 9-1 this season (winning by 13.9 ppg) and with a day's rest in their favor. Fatigue will play a major factor in this one as the Suns are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. This has been a matchup dominated by the home team as the home squad is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. In fact, the Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Denver. Since the beginning of last season, Denver is on a 12-1 ATS run as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, winning in these spots by 15.6 points on average. We'll take the Nuggets at home tonight. |
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12-11-09 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 187.5 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Cavs UNDER 187.5
The public is all over the over, driving this line up from its opening mark of 184. Right away, you have to like the Under here when you consider that plays Under on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in December games, are 24-4 the last 5 seasons (85.7%). You also have to like the fact that Portland is 14-3 Under in road games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons. The Under is also 7-1 in the Trail Blazers' last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. I expect a very physical, defensive battle resulting in the Under coming through for us tonight. |
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12-10-09 | Orlando Magic -2 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Magic -2
The Jazz have historically been a good home team, and they are 9-3 at home this season, but this is a really tough spot for them tonight. The Jazz played the Lakers tough for 3 quarters last night and then they were absolutely crushed in the 4th. While they would like to bounce back tonight, I don't think they'll have the legs to get it done against a Magic team that is rested and that has been one of the best road teams in the league the past couple seasons. In fact, the Magic are 10-2 on the road this season. Plus, the Jazz get the Lakers again in two nights so I expect them to be much more concerned with having their revenge in that game than this one. Utah is just 7-18 ATS when playing on back-to-back days since the beginning of last season, losing in these spots by 7 points on average. The Jazz are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. With their banged up roster, I just don't see Utah having the depth to get it done tonight. The Magic are 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Utah and 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall. Take the Magic. |
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12-04-09 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers -12 | Top | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Year (ESPN) on Cavs -12
The Bulls have lost 5 straight games on the road with 4 of those losses coming by 15 or more points. The Cavs are rolling, having won 13 of their last 16 games. In their last 2 games, they crushed Dallas by 16 and Phoenix by 17 points. Plus, they'll be very hungry tonight after going down to Chicago by 1 point at home in the season's first meeting back on Nov. 5. Before that loss, the Cavs had won their two previous home games against the Bulls by scores of 14 and 25 points and I expected another lopsided win here. The Bulls are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Cleveland and the Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Central. Plus, the Bulls are short on quality depth right now with Tyrus Thomas expected to be out until mid-December and with Kirk Hinrich also listed as doubtful for tonight. Lay the number. |
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12-02-09 | Toronto Raptors v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 211 | Top | 115-146 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Raptors/Hawks OVER 211
The Raptors are giving up 112.1 ppg on the road this season and their poor defense gives us a solid Overs opportunity tonight. The Hawks are 6-2 Over at home this season and they'll be hungry to run up the score after being held to just 88 points last game. The last time these two teams faced off, they combined for 228 points and I believe they are good for at least 215 tonight. Plays Over on Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - cold team failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 25-6 the last 5 season. Bet the Over. |
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11-25-09 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 189
I really think this is a strong Unders opportunity tonight. Philly just played last night in an up and down game and now it must take on a Boston team that hasn't played since Sunday. Boston is one of the premier defensive teams in the league, especially at the Garden where it is only allowing 88.4 ppg. The Celtics should be especially concerned with the defensive end tonight after giving up 105 points to the Knicks last game. These teams have already met once this season and only 179 total points were scored. It is also highly in our favor that the Under is 6-0 in the 76ers' last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-0 in the Celtics' last 6 game after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Also, consider that the Under is 15-3 in the 76ers' last 18 games as an underdog of 11.0 or more points. Bet the Under. |
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11-20-09 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -6 | Top | 83-78 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
5* ESPN Game of the Month on Celtics -6
Without Jameer Nelson, I don't give the Magic a chance at Boston tonight against a highly motivated Celtics team ready to make a statement after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Magic last season. Expect a big game from Kevin Garnett, who was forced to miss last year's playoff series with an injury, and expect Rajon Rondo to dominate the point guard battle. The home team is 25-12 ATS in the last 37 meetings and the Magic are just 5-14 ATS in the last 19 meetings in Boston. Expect the Celtics to send a message tonight. |
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11-19-09 | Utah Jazz v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199.5 | Top | 90-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf Total of the Month on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 199.5
We'll look to take advantage of another solid Unders situation tonight. Both of these veteran teams just played last night so they won't have the legs to make this one a fastbreak affair. Besides, this one is in San Antonio where the Spurs prefer the halfcourt game. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are both listed as doubtful for this game which forces coach Popovich to take the air out of the basketball even more than usual to give his team the best chance to win. Parker and Ginobli are the Spurs' best open court players and without them they won't get much of anything in transition tonight. The Under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 games playing without rest, but here's the clincher: San Antonio is 12-1 Under after a game where they had 2 or less steals over the last 3 seasons, with the average score in these spots totaling just 183.1 points. Without Parker and Ginobli (for much of the night) last night, the Spurs weren't able to come up with many thefts. Same case tonight and that limits transition buckets. Bet the Under. |
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11-18-09 | New Jersey Nets v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 189 | Top | 85-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Bucks UNDER 189
The Nets are really hurting for offense right now with all their injuries. They have scored 83 or fewer points in each of their last 5 games and find themselves in a really tough spot tonight having just played last night. Milwaukee has put up some big offensive numbers recently but consider the opponents (New York, Denver, Golden State, Dallas), all teams that like to run and gun. We certainly won't see the Nets push the tempo tonight as they just played last night and they know they can't win that way. We've seen this matchup play to the Under in 3 straight, 10 of the last 14 overall, and 8 of the last 11 in Milwaukee. The Nets have gone Under in 6 straight now I'll ride the Under with them again here. |
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11-17-09 | Chicago Bulls v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 198 | Top | 101-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Line Mistake of the Week on Bulls/Kings UNDER 198
Chicago's defense is very strong this season and the books are not taking that into account enough with this line. In fact, the Bulls have held 6 of their 9 opponents to 90 or fewer points and the Under is 7-2 on the Bulls this season as a result. The Kings aren't as strong as the Bulls defensively, but Chicago has struggled on the road this season, scoring only 88 points per in 4 road games. In fact, Chicago is 19-6 Under versus poor defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 46% or better over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this head-to-head. Bet the Under. |
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11-13-09 | Houston Rockets v. Sacramento Kings +5 | Top | 100-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +5
The Kings, who only have one less win on the season than Houston, are not getting nearly enough respect tonight, especially when you consider that they are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. It is also crucial that Sacramento is well rested here as it is 18-7 ATS when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 103 to 101.8. The Rockets got out of the gate fast but are since coming back down to earth. Sac is improved and I like it outright tonight. |
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11-11-09 | Utah Jazz v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189 | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Month on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 189
Deron Williams is questionable for tonight's game and even if he can go, I don't expect his normal points considering he only scored 5 points against the Knicks weak defense when playing with the back injury a couple nights ago. Boston is only allowing 84.4 ppg this season and it hasn't played since the 7th so I'm expecting continued strong defensive play. Plus, Utah is going through its normal road struggles, scoring only 95.0 ppg on the road. The Under is 13-3-1 in the Celtics' last 17 vs. the NBA Northwest and I look for this trend to continue here. Bet the Under. |
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11-06-09 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 189 | Top | 87-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks/T-Wolves UNDER 189
We've had good success with totals line movers the past two nights and I expect that success to continue here. This line opened at 185 but has been bet up to where we see it now, creating excellent value on the Under, especially since I already liked the Under at the opening number. Milwaukee is having all kinds of trouble with offensive chemistry right now with star shooting guard Michael Redd out. In 2 road games this season, the Bucks haven't topped 86 points. Minnesota has struggled to score the rock as well as it tries to adjust to life in the Triangle Offense. It has not exceeded 95 points at home this season and has scored 90 or fewer points in 3 of 5 games. Together these teams are 7-1 to the Under this season, Minnesota is 13-3 Under in its last 16 home games and 7-0 in its 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take the Under. |
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11-04-09 | Phoenix Suns v. Orlando Magic OVER 217.5 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Suns/Magic OVER 217.5
This total opened at 224 and has been bet down all the way to 217.5. We'll gladly get in on the OVER now as it is showing good value with the line move. The fact that the books set such a high number after seeing the Magic and the Suns both post their lowest point totals of the season tells me the books are expecting a shootout. Orlando will be hungry after last night's embarrassing effort and the Suns will be hungry all season to pay teams back after a rough 2008-09 season. This is the first time each team has played back to back this season so I don't see tired legs as an issue, especially this early in the year. Also, when teams do play back to back, it's usually the defensive end that suffers more and that plays right into our hands. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in this series and we'll pound it here. |
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10-28-09 | Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 59-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +10.5
Big win for the Celtics last night has the public all over them, but after big wins often come letdowns and that's precisely what I think you'll see from Boston here. The Bobcats have played the Celtics tough as nails and the result has been lucrative. In fact, the Cats are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this matchup and a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Boston. Plus, the Bobcats are an impressive 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 while the Celtics are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Doc Rivers played his starters longer than he wanted to last night, especially KG. Don't expect Boston to be up for the Bobcats the way they were for Lebron James and Shaq and expect Doc to give his vets a little more rest tonight, playing back-to-back early in the season as it is a long season. Take the points. |
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06-14-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 99-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game 5 MONSTER BEST BET on Magic -3
Normally, the series would be heading back to LA for Game 5, but the unique 2-3-2 format of the finals gives the Magic a home game to fight for its playoff life and that is huge. Orlando is a very resilient team and it is not going to lay down in front of its home fans here, especially since this is the last home game of the season. Plus, teams playing with nothing to lose are very dangerous. The Lakers are feeling a little fat and happy right about now, just like they were following their narrow Game 2 victory, and while they may say they want to end it tonight, they aren't going to lose any sleep over a loss as they feel they can win it in front of their home fans in Game 6. The Lakers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win and 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 NBA Finals games. Orlando is 33-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 102.3 to 94.1. Orlando is also 21-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Magic tonight. |
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06-11-09 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 99-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Gm 4 *MONSTER BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +2.5
The Magic shot an NBA Finals record 63% from the floor in Game 3 and still did not cover the spread. If Kobe was his normal self, not shooting 5 of 10 from the free throw line and living up to his title as the games best closer, the Lakers would have won Game 3 despite Orlando's shooting performance. Here are two things I know: the Magic won't shoot as well in Game 4 and Kobe will be better. The Lakers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. I like LA outright in Game 4 so I'll gladly take the insurance points. |
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06-09-09 | Los Angeles Lakers +4 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 104-108 | Push | 0 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Finals Game of the Year on LA Lakers +4
I like the Lakers to deliver the knockout blow with an outright win tonight so I'll definitely take them getting 4 insurance points. They escaped with a win in Game 2 while not playing their best and that does tons for their confidence while it doesn't do anything for Orlando's. The Lakers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog. The Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. With the books knowing the public would shift to the Magic tonight, they have given the Lakers plenty of breathing room here with these points. Expect the Lakers to come out on top in a close one. |
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06-07-09 | Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Finals Vegas Line Mistake on Lakers -6.5
Odds makers have only raised this line a half point from what we saw in Game 1 when the Lakers crushed the Magic by 25 points and I expect them to pay for their mistake. While I don't expect the Magic to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 1, I still have the Lakers winning by double digits. The Magic live and die from the three-point line and they were not that bad from three in Game 1 (8 of 23) and were still dominated. Even if they make over their season average of 10, which is going to be difficult with as well as the Lakers are defending dating back to Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, they still have a lot of points to make up. Kobe Bryant is as focused and as hungry as I've seen him. He knows that putting the young and inexperienced Magic in a 0-2 hole all but closes the door on this series. Bet the Lakers! |
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06-04-09 | Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers -6 | Top | 75-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Finals Series Opener on Lakers -6
This is where experience plays a big role. The Lakers played in the Finals a season ago and came up short. They know what to expect on the big stage and this time around they have the luxury of playing Game 1 at home. The fact that they lost in the Finals last year is also key as you won't see a team that is fat and happy. The Magic haven't been here before and I'm confident you will see their nerves in Game 1 tonight. LA also has a couple individuals that really want this title and they know how important a Game 1 win is in achieving it. Phil Jackson has a chance to earn his 10th NBA title and Kobe Bryant wants his first without Shaq and his 4th overall. The Lakers match up much better with the Magic than the Cavs did and they have a lot more weapons. Take advantage of a soft line in Game 1. |
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05-30-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic -2 | Top | 90-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
5* Game 6 BEST BET (TNT) on Magic -2
The Magic have been the better team in this series and there's no way they are going to let this thing go back to Cleveland for a Game 7. The Cavaliers are 2-14 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall and 0-5 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings in Orlando. Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season while Orlando is 12-3 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 107.9 to 88.2 in these spots. Orlando is also 15-3 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 107.2 to 99.6. I'll back the Magic at home to close out the series tonight. |
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05-28-09 | Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* Game 5 BEST BET (TNT) on Cavs -7
The Cavaliers will play their best game of the series tonight on their home floor where they are 44-3 this season. Cleveland will be very dangerous tonight because it will be fighting to stay alive in the postseason and also because it will be playing with nothing to lose. Now the pressure is on Orlando to close this thing out. Bottom line, Cleveland wins Game 4 on the road rather easily if the Magic don't go off for 17 three pointers and they won't make near that many on the road tonight. The Cavaliers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss, 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 playoff games as a favorite, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season, 14-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, and 17-6 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The public is all over the Magic tonight so the books are looking to cash in big with a Cleveland cover. We'll go against the grain for another big winner. |
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05-27-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Revenge GOTM on LA Lakers -5.5
After a 19-point Game 4 loss, you can expect the Lakers to bounce back strong on their home floor tonight. In fact, the Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. LA is 25-3 SU in its last 28 home games with the Nuggets and the Nuggets are only 3-11 ATS in the last 14 games in Los Angeles. Plus, the Nuggets are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Denver is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game, losing by an average score of 102.8 to 115.1 in these spots. And lastly, the Lakers are 16-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. I'll lay the number here. |
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05-26-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic | Top | 114-116 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Finals GOTY on Cavs pk
This is a do-or-die game for the Cavs when you consider the bleak history of coming back in a series after falling Behind 1-3, and I expect the Cavs to rise to the occasion. The Cavaliers are 54-26-1 ATS in their last 81 games following a SU loss and 14-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. But here's the clincher: Cleveland is 13-1 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 102.0 to 88.1 in these games. I'll back the league MVP and the Cavs in this must-win spot. |
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05-25-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 208.5 | Top | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 208.5
3 straight unders in this series have brought the total down 5 points since Game 1 and now the books will pay for making such a mistake. We saw these teams score 208 and 209 points respectively in Games 1 and 2 and after totaling only 200 in a poor shooting Game 3, I expect to see a shootout. Denver is averaging 108.2 ppg at home this season and the Lakers are averaging 104.6 ppg on the road. Denver is 36-9 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score in these games was DENVER 112.7, OPPONENT 107.8. And the Lakers are 37-11 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 113.2, OPPONENT 107.6. Bet the Over. |
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05-24-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 89-99 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
5* Game 3 Monster BEST BET (TNT) on Cavs +1.5
LeBron's game winner in Game 2 saved the Cavs. Now I expect them to play with a greater sense of urgency to avoid falling behind in this series again. The Cavs have held huge leads in both Games 1 and 2 and have let the Magic claw their way back. I expect the Cavs to show a much greater killer instinct from here on out. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Cavaliers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or less points. The Magic have struggled at home in the small chalk at 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. With the momentum gained in Game 2, I expect the Cavs to steal its home court back tonight. |
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05-23-09 | Los Angeles Lakers +4 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 103-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Game of the Year (ABC) on Lakers +4
First off, the Lakers are one of the finest road teams in the NBA at 31-15 this season. Secondly, each time LA has lost in these playoffs, it has responded with a convincing double digit win. In fact, the Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Thirdly, anytime you can get LA catching points, it is worth strong consideration, especially in a bounce back spot. The Lakers are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. Plus, LA is 17-6 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. There's no question the books have overvalued the Nuggets here as the public is jumping on their bandwagon. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. The Lakers are 41-14 SU against Denver since 1996 and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Pound LA tonight as they win this one outright! |
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05-22-09 | Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 188.5 | Top | 95-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals TOTY (TNT) on Magic/Cavs UNDER 188.5
The public is all over the over here and that is exactly where the sportsbooks want it. We saw a total score of 213 points in Game 1, and odds makers only raised the total 4.5 points? Exactly. Adjustments are going to be made by both teams on the defensive end, and you can expect to see the Cavs team which is only allowing 87.7 ppg at home tonight. Orlando is 19-6 UNDER after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, 10-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons, and Cleveland is 14-2 UNDER after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread this season. The Under is 11-4 in Magic last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. 7 of 11 games over the last 3 seasons have gone Under in this matchup. Bet the Under! |
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05-20-09 | Orlando Magic +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 107-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* Game 1 MONSTER BEST BET on Magic +9
The Cavs have won each of their 8 playoff games by 10 or more points so odds makers are begging for action on Cleveland with this line, but we won't bite. The Magic match up very well with the Cavs as Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu all pose matchup problems. This is why Orlando has had Cleveland's number. The Magic won the season series 2-1 and have won 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 11 overall. And when they haven't won, they have been right there to cover. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Orlando is 15-6 ATS as an underdog this season and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. It's also important to note that the Cavaliers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning pct. above .600. The Magic are coming off a very intense series while the Cavs have had a cake walk to this point. I expect the Magic to be ready to go here as it takes Cleveland some time to match intensity and to lose its rust after a long layoff. Bet the Magic. |
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05-19-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Line Mistake of the Year on LA Lakers -6.5
This line is soft. The Lakers are not going to be caught sleeping tonight after what happened in Game 1 of their last series, and they are not going to be showing any rust as they haven't had a long layoff coming into this series. Plan on LA making a statement tonight. Denver has looked great in these playoffs, but that's because it has played the majority of its games at home. Outside of a 58-point win at New Orleans, the Nuggets have looked like an ordinary team away from home in the playoffs. They are 2-2 on the road in the postseason and 6-11 in their last 17 road games overall. LA has had Denver's number. Over the last 3 seasons, LA is 11-4 SU and ATS in all meetings. The Lakers are 24-2 SU and 18-6 ATS at home against Denver since 1996 and 7-1 SU and ATS at home against the Nuggets the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are only 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall and 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles. LA is winning its games by an average of 10.6 points at home and has won each of its home games against Denver by 14 points this season. Denver is only 5-17 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 96.7 to 107.1. Cash in with the Lakers! |
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05-17-09 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers -12.5 | Top | 70-89 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game 7 BEST BET on Lakers -12.5
After a double digit loss in Houston in Game 4, the Lakers returned home and gave the Rockets a 40-point beat down and I anticipate a similar course of events today. I don't expect this one to be that bad, but I do expect the Lakers to dominate from start to finish. Plays on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest are 54-15 ATS the last 5 seasons and the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss period. Also, Houston is 2-10 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games in LA. Houston did steal Game 1 in LA, but the Lakers have wins of 29, 12, 13, and 40 points at home against Houston this season. That's a 23.5-point average margin of victory. I'll back the Lakers at home in this bounce back spot. |