Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-04-15 | Cavs v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Pelicans NBA on ESPN Vegas Insider on Pelicans + Cleveland lost 85-97 at home to the Wizards on Tuesday and the perception here is that they are going to bounce back with a win, which has resulted in an inflated line and some great value here with the Pelicans at home in a prime time game on ESPN. The Cavaliers haven't been playing well of late. They are just 5-4 in their last 9 games and each of their last 2 wins have been less than impressive. They won by a final of just 95-90 at Charlotte and 90-88 at Brooklyn. New Orleans comes in having lost 4 straight, but there's reason to be optimistic about this team turning the corner and getting back to playing like they did a year ago when they made the playoffs. The Pelicans recently got back Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole, two big pieces of the offense that can take pressure off Anthony Davis. Look for New Orleans to lay everything they have into this game and I fully expect them to get the win. Cleveland is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite, while the Pelicans are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 after losing 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take New Orleans! |
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12-01-15 | Suns v. Nets +3.5 | Top | 91-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf Game of the Month on Nets + Brooklyn is showing great value here as a home dog against the Suns. The Nets have been playing much better basketball since their 0-7 start. While they are just 4-6 since, you have to keep in mind that they have played 7 of their last 10 on the road. They were also competitive in all 6 losses during this stretch and have won all 3 of their home games. Phoenix comes in off a 107-102 win at Toronto on Sunday, but are just 3-4 on the road on the season and just 1-4 over their last 5 overall. Tough spot for the Suns to get motivated after a big road win, especially with them missing a key piece in center Tyson Chandler. Brook Lopez should be able to have his way inside for Brooklyn with Chandler sidelined and that's going to open up everything else. Another key factor here is the Nets have really been getting after it defensively at home. During their current 3-game winning streak at the Barclays Center they are allowing just 90.7 ppg and holding opponents to just 39.4% shooting from the field. Phoenix on the other hand has allowed 100+ in 3 straight and are allowing 106.4 ppg on the road, where opposing teams are shooting just under 47% from the field. The Nets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after covering in their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game. Take Brooklyn! |
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11-24-15 | Celtics v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 97-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
5* Celtics/Hawks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hawks - Atlanta comes into this contest off a 97-109 loss at Cleveland, where they failed to cover as a 5.5-point underdog. The Hawks are now just 1-4 in their last 5 SU and 1-6 in their last 7 ATS. I believe this has Atlanta showing excellent value here at home against the Celtics. The Hawks are going to be extremely motivated to get a win after their recent poor play and are well rested with this being just their second game in the last six days. Atlanta will also be out for revenge against the Celtics after a 93-106 loss at Boston back on 11/13. The thing to keep in mind with that game, is the Hawks were a 1-point road favorite, which means they should be around a 7-point home favorite against the Celtics. The Hawks are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a winning road record. We also see a strong system in play. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a same season loss to an opponent that is coming in off a division road loss are 25-6 (81%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Atlanta! |
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11-20-15 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -4.5 | Top | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are showing excellent value here against the Rockets at home. Houston was able to snap a 4-game losing streak with a 108-103 home win over the Trail Blazers in their first game after the firing of head coach Kevin McHale. What's getting overlooked is the fact that the Rockets trailed by as many as 17 in the 3rd quarter and needed a 30-foot 3-pointer at the buzzer to force overtime. I just don't think the firing of McHale is going to magically fix the problems that led to the Rockets poor start. I certainly don't like their chances of going on the road and beating a Memphis team that has turned the corner and are playing up to their potential after a slow start. The Grizzlies have won 3 straight and are averaging an impressive 112.3 ppg during this stretch. Their improved play all started when they made the trade to land Mario Chalmers from Miami. When Memphis is playing well, they are extremely difficult to beat at home, which is a big reason why I like them so much tonight. The Grizzlies should be able to score at will against a Rockets defense that is allowing 108.1 ppg. Memphis did an excellent job keeping Harden in check last year, limiting him to just 19.3 ppg in their 4 meetings. Harden had 45 against the Blazers and they barely won, so the Grizzlies should have no problem covering if they continue to limit him like they did a year ago. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 103 or more points/game against an opponent that scored 110 or more in their last game are just 28-63 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis! |
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11-18-15 | Bulls v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 103-97 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Suns ESPN ATS No Brainer on Suns - The Suns are showing some great value here as a small home favorite in Wednesday's nationally televised matchup against the Bulls on ESPN. While both teams come in riding 3-game winning streaks, Phoenix has been the more impressive team during this stretch. Chicago barely escaped with home wins over the Hornets (102-97) and Pacers (96-95), while the Suns have won 3 straight at home by at least 14 points. The key here is that Chicago is a team that is a heavily backed team by the public and it's why we aren't seeing Phoenix as a bigger home favorite in this matchup. I believe this will be a tough spot for the Bulls, who will be making their first trip out west and doing so without starting point guard Derrick Rose. At the same time, the Bulls have a much bigger game on deck against the undefeated Warriors on Friday. Chicago has gone 2-2 on the road, but their 2 wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league in the Nets and 76ers. Their 2 road losses were a 94-98 defeat at Detroit and 105-130 loss at Charlotte. Suns are 5-2 ATS at home this season, 15-4 ATS in their last 19 off a win by 10 or more points and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-5 ATS in last 6 versus a team with a winning record, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game. Take Phoenix! |
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11-17-15 | Cavs v. Pistons OVER 193 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Pistons NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER I look for the Cavaliers and Pistons to have no problem eclipsing the total set for this one. Cleveland comes in averaging 102.8 ppg and are catching the Pistons in a tough spot. Detroit has had just 1-day off after concluding a lengthy 6-game west coast road trip. The Cavaliers come in on 2 full days of rest and will be able to push the tempo and take advantage of the tired legs of the Pistons. It's also important to note we catch Cleveland coming off a loss, so we know they will be highly motivated to bounce back with a win. The key here is I loo for Detroit to keep pace offensively at home. Cleveland has allowed at least 97 points in 4 of their last 5 and Detroit is averaging a respectable 96.6 ppg. It's also worth noting that each of the final 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 195 or more. OVER is 19-8 in the Pistons last 27 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, 26-12 in their last 38 as a home dog and 11-2 in their last 13 home games off a road loss by 10 or more points. OVER is 39-17-1 in Cleveland's las 57 when playing with 2 days of rest and 4-1 in last 5 off a game where they failed to cover. Take the OVER! |
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11-16-15 | Pacers +6 v. Bulls | Top | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Pacers + The Pacers are showing some excellent value here as a 6-point road dog against division rival Chicago. Indiana has really come on strong since their 0-3 start, winning 6 of their last 7. They come into this one riding a 3-game winning streak and should have no problem keeping it close against the Bulls. Chicago is 6-3 and have won 2 straight, but they aren't dominating teams. Their only 2 wins by more than 6-points have come against two of the worst teams in the league in the Nets and 76ers. Indiana's only loss during their recent surge is a 4-point defeat at Cleveland. Adding to this is the fact that the Bulls are 1-4 ATS at home, while the Pacers are 3-1 ATS on the road. Indiana is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games in the month of November, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days rest. These trends add up to form a dynamite 27-1 system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana! |
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11-13-15 | Hornets v. Bulls -6.5 | Top | 97-102 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Bulls - I'm expecting a dominating performance at home from the Bulls tonight against the Hornets. Chicago most lopsided loss of the season came at Charlotte last week in a 105-130 defeat. That loss didn't sit well with the Bulls, as they allowed the Hornets to shoot 51.6% from the field, easily the worst mark they have given up in 2015. Last season the Bulls followed up a 91-101 loss at Charlotte with a 98-86 home win 10 days later, which is what I'm expecting here. Not only will Chicago be out for revenge, but they are going to be motivated off an ugly loss at home to the Timberwolves in their last home game. Their only home defeat of the season. The key here is the Bulls will have the fresher legs, as they come into this game off a 3-day break. Charlotte on the other hand will be playing their 3rd in 4 days and 4th road game in their last 5 overall. Bulls are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 when revenge a road loss of 10 or more points and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Chicago! |
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11-11-15 | Pistons v. Kings UNDER 203.5 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Kings UNDER Each of the last 4 meetings between these two teams has finished UNDER the total and given the circumstances I believe that streak continues tonight. Detroit is one of the most improved teams in the league and will be motivated coming off a loss at Golden State last time out. However, I don't see the Pistons playing at a fast pace. Detroit is playing their 4th straight on the road in their West Coast trip and 3rd in the last 4 nights overall. Betting the UNDER with the Kings might not seem like a wise move, given Sacramento is allowing 110.6 ppg and opposing teams are shooting 49.3% from the field. The key here is the Kings held a players only meeting on Tuesday, which I believe is going to result in max effort here defensively, as they try to put an end to a 6-game losing streak on their home floor. One thing to keep in mind with Sacramento's poor defensive start, is 6 of their first 8 games have come against some strong offensive teams in the Clippers (twice), Suns, Rockets, Warriors and Spurs. Their 8 opponents as a whole combine to average 103.5 ppg. Detroit is only scoring 99.0 ppg and shooting just 42.7% from the field. UNDER is 5-1 in the Kings last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 13-4 in the Pistons last 17 road games after playing their previous game as a road dog, 23-10 in their last 33 against the Western Conference and 10-4 in their last 14 road games against a team with a losing home record. We also find a strong system in play, as the UNDER is 50-21 (70%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team that has covered at least 4 of their last 6, playing their 4th road game in 7 days and a total set at 200 or more points. Take the UNDER! |
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11-06-15 | Wizards v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Celtics + With the Wizards sitting at 3-1 and the Celtics at 1-3, this may seem like an obvious spot to back Washington as a small road favorite. I don't think that's the case at all. The books are begging for money on the Wizards with this small spread, but the real value here is with Boston as a small home favorite. The Celtics have proceeded to lose 3 straight since their blowout win at home against the 76ers in their opener. Two of those losses came at home against the Raptors and Spurs, who are two of the better teams in the league. The other was a heartbreaking 2-point loss at Indiana that could have went either way. Washington is getting some love here after their 102-99 win at home against the Spurs. San Antonio is a team that everyone gets up for, so I actually think that sets them up for a letdown, especially with a huge division road game against the Hawks on deck tomorrow. The Wizards other two wins have come against the Magic and Bucks, which isn't saying much. What stands out is a 7-point home loss to the Knicks, who aren't any good. Wizards are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 off a win by 6 points or less and just 9-21 in their last 30 road games on Friday night. Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, while Washington is 3-7 in their last 10 against a team with a losing home record. We also find a strong system, as teams off an upset loss as a favorite (Celtics) against an opponent off an upset win as a home dog (Wizards) are 67-33 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Boston! |
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11-04-15 | Clippers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
5* Clippers/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Clippers + We are seeing the Warriors overvalued here due to their 4-0 SU & ATS start, which includes a 50-point win over Memphis at home in their last contest. The thing to keep in mind is that none of the teams they have beat are playing well to start the season. The Pelicans, who they have played twice, are 0-4, Memphis is just 3-2 with a 30-point loss to Cleveland and the Rockets are 1-3. The Clippers will be without a doubt the best team they have faced to this point. Los Angeles has also started 4-0, though they are just 2-2 ATS with both non-covers coming in their last 2 games. There's no question this a game the Clippers have circled on the schedule, as it's a big measuring stick to see where they stand against the former champs. I look for LA to come out and give the Warriors all they can handle in a game that I see being decided in the final minutes. Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after 2 straight games where they had 10 or fewer offensive rebounds. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-30-15 | Wolves v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 95-78 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Nuggets - Denver is a team that no one was talking about coming into the season, but are one to keep an eye on. The Nuggets were certainly impressive in their opener, going on the road and defeating the Rockets 105-85 as a 10.5-point underdog. The Timberwolves played inspired in wake of the unfortunate loss of Saunders and pulled out a 112-111 against the Lakers in LA. They needed a late rally to do so and let's no get carried away with a win over a Lakers team that is one of the worst in the west. Last year the Nuggets went just 19-22 at home and it's been a point of emphasis this offseason to bring back the home court edge to the Pepsi Center. I look for the Nuggets to come out inspired in this one and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this turned into a blowout. Minnesota could have a difficult time bouncing back after that emotional win to start the season, plus this is a very young team that isn't all that familiar with success and winning back-to-back games on the road is not something you see many young teams do. I also like the point guard matchup here, with Nuggets rookie Emmanuel Mudiay's defensive presence against Ricky Rubio. Nuggets are 11-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons off a win by 10 or more points as an underdog and are 34-15 in their last 49 home games against a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 10-21 ATS over the last 2 years after allowing 110 or more points and 18-39 ATS in their last 57 off a road win by 3 points or less. Take Denver! |
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06-16-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Game 6 No Brainer on Cavs + It's do or die for the Cavaliers in Game 6 at home and I expect James and company to deliver. Playing at home is exactly what Cleveland's players need, as they will be able to feed off the energy of the home crowd. As good as Golden State has looked in their last two games, it's a whole different beast closing out a series, especially on the road for the NBA title. I look for the pressure to get to the Warriors. Cleveland is also the more desperate team and desperation has proven to be a big advantage in the postseason. Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102+ PPG) after 42+ games are a mere 10-33 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Cavs. Take Cleveland! |
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06-14-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 91-104 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavaliers + I anticipated that the Cavaliers were in trouble in Game 4. Not only did Golden State seem to figure out something offensively with David Lee getting more minutes, but Cleveland had used up so much energy in Games 2 & 3 that they were due for a letdown. I believe the 2 days off between Game 4 and Game 5 are huge for the Cavaliers. Look for James to return to the form that had him flirting with 40 points and a triple-double in the first 3 and for Cleveland to keep this one well within striking distance to cover. I also don't think it's out of question that the Cavaliers win this outright. The Cavaliers are 33-19 in their last 52 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points and 15-2 in their last 17 after playing 4 straight games as an underdog. Take Cleveland! |
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06-11-15 | Golden State Warriors -2.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 103-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Warriors - Golden State didn't make the adjustments that I expected going into Game 3 and it was more of the same thing that we saw in Games 1 and 2. However, I believe they found something in that contest with David Lee. His ability to make plays out of the pick-and-roll really gave the Warriors offense a boost and we started to see Curry look like the MVP down the stretch. The Warriors just haven't looked themselves and I think the desperation that comes with being down 2-1 on the road is going to light a fire under this team. It's about time the role players stepped up and contributed. You also have to take into consideration that LeBron is due to regress some from the ridiculous numbers he's put up in the first three games of the series. You also have to keep in mind that both Shumpert and Dellavedova were banged up in Game 3 and the Cav's have no depth. I just see this being a bit of a letdown for Cleveland. Take Golden State to tie it up at 2-2! |
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06-09-15 | Golden State Warriors -1.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 91-96 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors - LeBron James was special in Game 2 with 39 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists, while Golden State's Stephen Curry had one of his worst games in recent memory (5 of 23 for 19 points). You would expect Cleveland to have won by double-digits given this stat line, but instead they nearly lost outright. James is going to continue to get his, but I just don't see the Cavaliers being able to keep up their defensive intensity. They just don't have a deep enough bench and I believe the 1-day off between Game 2 and Game 3 is going to be the difference here. Curry will be much better tonight and chances are James won't replicate his triple-double stat line. All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 51-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 70% long-term system in favor of the Warriors. Take Golden State! |
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06-07-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +8 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 95-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Cavs + I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the Cavaliers now an 8-point dog in Game 2. I know Cleveland lost a key player in Irving, but he was already playing at less than 100% and was a liability defensively. As long as James is on the floor, the Cavs have a shot at winning. While I don't think they get a victory here, I am expecting this to be a close game. Over James' career he's lost Game 1 of a series 8 times and his team has rebounded on all 8 of those occasions to win Game 2 (7-1 ATS). That trend alone makes this an obvious play on Cleveland given we are almost getting double-digits here. It's also worth noting that home favorites who are leading in a playoff series that won 75% or more of their games against a team with a winning record are 14-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
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06-04-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals G1 Vegas Insider on Warriors - The Warriors are showing decent value here as a mere 5.5-point home favorite in Game 1 of the finals. Keep in mind that Golden State was no less than a 9.5-point favorite in any of their previous home games in the playoffs. Not to mention the Warriors only lost 3 times at home all season. Cleveland may have the best player in the game in LeBron James, but the Warriors are the better team. Golden State's depth is going to pose a big problem for the Cavaliers, who are without Love and Irving playing at less than 100%. It also comes down to matchups. Warriors have the players defensively that can guard James and lower his efficiency, similar to what the Bulls did. Cleveland on the other hand has no answer defensively for Curry or Thompson. Let's not forget that James has never won a Game 1 road contest in his career (0-7). Take Golden State! |
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05-27-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10.5 | Top | 90-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Warriors - |
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05-26-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 | Top | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Cavs NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter on Cavs - |
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05-25-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets OVER 213 | Top | 115-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
5* Warriors/Rockets Vegas Insider on Over 213 |
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05-24-15 | Atlanta Hawks +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
5* Hawks/Cavs No Brainer on Hawks + |
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05-23-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets +1.5 | Top | 115-80 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
5* Warriors/Rockets Vegas Insider on Rockets + |
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05-22-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 197 | Top | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on UNDER These two teams combined for just 185 points in Game 1 and I just don't see this being a high-scoring series given the form that both of these two are in. Cleveland is playing without Love and Irving is hobbled and potentially might sit this one out. The Hawks are more than likely without Carroll and even if he does play he will be at less than 100%. The Hawks defense forced the Cavaliers into a lot of isolation sets, which slows their offense way down. Had it not been for J.R. Smith being on fire, Cleveland likely wouldn't have struggled to reach 90 points. Smith is extremely inconsistent and chances are he won't have near the same impact in Game 2. UNDER is 10-2 in the Hawks last 12 games when revenging a home loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when coming off a home loss. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Cavaliers last 10 after allowing 90 points or less in 2 straight games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 90% (26-3) system. Take the UNDER 197! |
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05-21-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10 | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA No Limit Top Play on Warriors - While the Warriors ended up winning Game 1 by just 4-points, there were some positive signs that point to a blowout victory in Game 2. Golden State trailed by as many as 16 in the 2nd quarter and later led by as many as 11. In just a little over a half, the Warriors outscored the Rockets by 37-points. With Dwight Howard likely sidelined and not effective if he does play, I just don't see the Warriors taking their foot off the gas, especially after losing Game 2 at home after winning Game 1 in their last series against Memphis. You also have to factor in that James Harden put up 28 on 11 of 20 shooting in Game 1 and to do so had to make a number of difficult shots. Even if Harden has another strong game, I still think the Warriors win here by double-digits. Take Golden State! |
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05-20-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -1 | Top | 97-89 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
5* Cavaliers/Hawks NBA No Limit Top Play on Hawks - Both of these teams closed out their last series with 3 straight wins after falling into an early 1-2 series deficit. While you could make a strong case for both teams in Game 1, I think the value here is clearly with the Hawks at basically a pick'em on their home floor. Atlanta proved to be a horrible matchup for the Cavaliers in the regular season. Cleveland won the first game of the series at home, but would drop the last 3 by a combined 46 points. Cleveland had no answer defensively in those 3 losses, as the Hawks shot 50% or better in all 3 of their wins. With Cleveland playing without Love and Irving clearly at less than 100%, Atlanta provided a much better matchup here than most people think. Cleveland is just 4-13 ATS in their 17 games this season when listed as an underdog and 4-14 in their last 18 road games when revenging a road loss. Atlanta is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off an upset win as a road dog. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (45-11) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta! |
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05-19-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10 | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Warriors - While the Rockets pulled off the shocking comeback against the Clippers, I'm not expecting Houston to put up much of a fight against the Warriors. While 10-points is a lot to be laying in a playoff game, keep in mind that Golden State swept the season series 4-0 with all 4 wins coming by double-digits. I believe Houston's success at the end of the Clippers series was more a result of LA's starters running out of gas. The Clippers featured a thin rotation that just couldn't hold up. When they were were clicking they embarrassed Houston early in the series and that's what I'm expecting to see here, as the Warriors feature a deep roster and matches up well with the Rockets. The other big factor here is rest. Golden State has been off since Friday, while Houston just played a do or die Game 7 on Sunday. It's going to be hard for the Rockets to come out with the intensity needed to keep it close on the road against a team like the Warriors. I also think the fact that Golden State fell behind early against Memphis will have them extra motivated to start the series strong. Warriors are 9-1 in their last 10 home games when playing just their 6th game in a span of 14 days and have won these by an average score of 111.7 to 94.1 (+17.6 ppg). Golden State is also 12-4 in their last 16 off 3 straight wins by 10+ points and 6-1 in their last 7 when playing with at least 3 days of rest. These trends combine to form a 82% (27-6) system in favor of the Warriors. Take Golden State! |
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05-17-15 | Los Angeles Clippers -2 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 100-113 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA No Limit Top Play on Clippers - The better team advanced to the conference finals in each of the other 3 series and I expect this one to be no different. The Clippers got outplayed in Game 5 at Houston and let their foot off the gas at home in Game 6. Even with the Rockets getting Game 7 at home, I like the Clipper to come out with a win to move on to face Golden State. Road favorites playing with double-revenge after a game where the opponent played on the road and each team scored 100+ points have gone 57-24 (70%) ATS since 1996. LA is also 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 8-2 in their last 10 when playing on 2 days rest. Take Los Angeles! |
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05-15-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Washington Wizards UNDER 197.5 | Top | 94-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Wizards UNDER These two teams combined for just 163 points in Game 5 at Atlanta and I look for the strong defensive efforts to carry over to Game 6. Keep in mind that the these two teams only combined for 87 points in the 2nd half of Game 4. It's not a surprise that the defenses are starting to win over the offenses, as these two teams are now extremely familiar with how far we are into the series. Atlanta's offense hasn't looked right for awhile and the Wizards matchup extremely well. On the flip side of this, I actually think the return of Wall hurts the offensive chemistry that Washington had built up. UNDER is 12-1 in Atlanta's last 13 playoff games when they have an opportunity to close out the series, giving us a strong 92% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER! |
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05-14-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -2 | Top | 94-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Bulls NBA No Limit Top Play on Bulls - Cleveland has taken back control of the series with two straight wins to lead 3-2, but I look for them to really struggle here in Game 6 against a Bulls team with their backs against the wall. Keep in mind that the Cavaliers invested a lot in those two wins, as those were two games they couldn't afford to lose. Both of those games came right down to the wire and Chicago was missing a key part in their offense in Gasol, who is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Getting Gasol back makes the Bulls a much more dangerous team and I believe it will be the difference in this one. Cavaliers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 when playing on 1 days rest and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win, while Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100+ points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 80% (32-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
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05-13-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 78-98 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
5* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Grizzlies + While the Warriors were able to come away with an easy 101-84 win at Memphis to tie up the series at 2-2, I don't see them blowing out the Grizzlies in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that Memphis won at Golden State 97-90 in Game 2 as a 10-point dog. This is also a bit of a letdown spot for the Warriors, as they laid everything they had on the line in Game 4 to avoid falling behind 3-1 in the series. I do think there's a good chance that Golden State wins this game, but 9.5-points is a lot to cover, especially the way these two teams have been grinding it out defensively. Warriors are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Grizzlies are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100+ points and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. These trends add up to form a strong 79% (30-8) system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis! |
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05-12-15 | Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 103-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA No Limit Top Play on Clippers - While the Rockets are facing elimination and this may seem like the spot to back them as a small home dog, I just don't think Houston is going to be able to extend the series to a Game 6. Doc Rivers understands the importance of closing out the series and getting that extra rest before the conference finals, especially with Paul nursing a hamstring injury. Houston has already lost at home to the Clippers without Paul and were fortunate to win Game 2 with Paul sidelined. They clearly had a lot to play for in their two games in LA and they didn't show up in either of those contests, getting blown out by 25 points in Game 3 and 33 points in Game 4. Clippers are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 road games overall, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against poor free throw shooting teams that are making 71% or less from the charity line and 8-0 ATS in the 2nd half over the last 2 seasons against teams who average 27 or more free throw attempts/game. These trends add up to form a strong 83% (36-7) system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
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05-10-15 | Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 95-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
5* Rockets/Clippers NBA No Limit Top Play on Rockets + I'm expecting a much better effort defensively from Houston in Game 3 and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. These two teams are more evenly matched than the spread would indicate and I don't see there being such a drastic difference in shooting percentage in Game 4. The Clippers shot 55.4% from the field in Game 3, while the Rockets hit just 39.8% of their attempts. This is a zig-zag theory play at it's finest and so far the system has been hitting at a high rate here in the conference quarterfinals. Adding to that is the fact that the Rockets are 20-8 in their last 28 after a defeat and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a loss of 10+ points. Road underdogs revenging a blowout loss of 20 or more points against an opponent off a home win are 75-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% 5-year system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
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05-08-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -1.5 | Top | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls - Cleveland came out on a mission in Game 2 to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series and the Bulls simply weren't able to match that intensity off that big win in Game 1. I still think Chicago is the better team here with the Cavaliers missing Love and really like the value we are getting with the Bulls laying just 1.5-points at home. Cleveland was on fire from downtown in Game 2, hitting 46% (12-26). I just don't see that kind of shooting carrying over on the road against a Bulls defense that will be a lot better than it was in Game 2. Cavaliers rely too much on 1-on-1 basketball with James and Irving and need them to be special just to keep it close. When the books list the Cavs as an underdog, it's been a wise move to take the favorite, as Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS this season when getting points. The Cavs are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a win by 10+ points. Chicago on the other hand is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 revenging a loss of 10+ points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points. These trends combine to form a 80% (33-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
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05-06-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6.5 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Rockets - LA shocked Houston in Game 1 by winning on the road and stealing the homecourt advantage without Chris Paul in the lineup. I don't know if it was the long layoff from the first series or the fact that they thought it would be an easy win with Paul on the sidelines, but the Rockets clearly didn't show up to play. That's not going to be the case in Game 2. The Rockets have to treat this like a Game 7, as they can't afford to fall behind 0-2 in the series. The Clippers on the other hand are in a prime letdown spot. They got the split they wanted and I would be shocked if Paul played tonight. I could see this one getting ugly in a hurry in favor of the Rockets, as LA is already likely looking ahead to Game 3. Houston is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when revenging a loss where they allowed 110+ points and 8-1 ATS in last 9 home games when revenging a loss. Rockets are also 10-1 ATS off a home loss and 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 or more. These trends combine to form a strong 86% (37-6) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
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05-05-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Grizzlies + The Grizzlies were without one of their most important pieces in point guard Mike Conley in Game 1 and shot a dreadful 25% from the 3-point line in a 15-point defeat. With Conley expected to return and a good chance Memphis won't be as bad from long-distance, I believe we are getting some incredible value here with the Grizzlies catching double-digits in Game 2. One of the important things to note is that Memphis' defense played well in the series opener, limiting the Warriors to just 101 points. Conley not only helps out offensively, but his defensive presence on Curry should make a big difference. I don't think it's out of the question that Memphis wins this game outright. Home favorites that won more than 75% of their games and leading in a playoff series are just 13-37 ATS against a team with a winning record since 1996. That's a 74% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis! |
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05-04-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 194.5 | Top | 99-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER The most recent matchup between these two teams came towards the end of the regular season (4/5) and there was a decent amount at stake with Cleveland not having safely secured the No. 2 seed. The total posted for that game was an identical 194.5 and the two teams ended up combining for 193. With how big a series this is and the intensity that comes with the playoffs, I think we are seeing a ton of value on the UNDER. The biggest key here is that Cleveland has lost Kevin Love and J.R. Smith is suspended for the first two games. Both of those guys do a tremendous job of spacing the defense, not having them on the floor is going to allow the Bulls to collapse inside and take away the driving lanes for James and Irving. In that last contest back in early April, Love had 11 points (3 3-pointers) and Smith had 24 (8 3-pointers). I think there's a good chance that both teams fail to score more than 90 points. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bulls last 5 games playing with 3 or more days of rest, 18-6 in their last 24 road games against a team with a winning home record and 20-8 in the Cavs last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record. These trends combine to form a 75% (42-14) system. Take the UNDER! |
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05-03-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 197 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
5* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER The last time these two teams faced off in the regular season the total was set at just 196.5 points. That alone shows you the value we are getting here, as the defensive intensity will be taken to a whole different level. A lot of people think the Warriors are all flash on offense, but that's not the case at all. Golden State led the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis to no surprise also ranked inside the Top 5 in that category. Grizzlies know they keep up with the Warriors in a shootout and Golden State understands that Memphis has little to no chance of beating them at home if they match the Grizzlies intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Steph Curry backed up this point, saying, "Our defense is going to show up. That's what we're going to bank on for the whole series." UNDER is 68-24 in games with a total set between 190 and 199.5 points, where you have a well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days (Warriors), on Sunday. That's a 74% long-term system. BET THE UNDER! |
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05-01-15 | Atlanta Hawks -3.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 111-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks - While the series hasn't played out the same as the Bulls/Bucks, I believe we are going to see Atlanta rise up to the occasion, just like the Bulls did in Game 5, and put this series to rest. I don't think the Hawks expected to get this much fight out of Brooklyn, but now that the series can be closed out, I look for them to come out with their best showing. The books simply haven't set the line high enough given the circumstances. If Atlanta wins like I'm expecting, there's a really good chance they win by at least 4-points. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 106-60 ATS since 1996! That's a 64% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta! |
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04-30-15 | Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 120-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
5* Bulls/Bucks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls - It's almost as if the Bulls thought the Bucks were going to lay down and give them the series after they took a commanding 3-0 lead. That hasn't been the case at all, as Milwaukee has won 2 straight. Most of that is a result of the Bucks wanting it more. I don't believe that will be the case tonight, as I look for Chicago to come out and treat this like Game 7. The Bulls are the better team and I'll take my chances on them closing this thing out and doing so by at least 4-points. Bucks are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games after successfully covering 2 or more straight games and 1-9 in their last 10 home games off 2 or more consecutive wins. Chicago is 25-12 in their last 37 after failing to cover 2 or more straight games and 7-1 in their last 8 when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 74% (60-21) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
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04-29-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 200 | Top | 97-107 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets/Hawks UNDER I believe we are seeing a major overreaction here from the books due to Game 4's high-scoring affair that saw the Hawks/Nets combine for 235 points. Only 208 of those game in regulation, as the two combined for 27 in overtime. Each of the first 3 games in the series finished with 191 or less, including a mere 174 in Game 3. Defense has the edge as these series progress, which is why I'm not expecting to see a repeat of the strong shooting percentages from Game 4, where Atlanta hit 48.4% from the field and Brooklyn 47.9%. Keep in mind that even with both teams red-hot, they only went over the posted total for Game 5 by a mere 8-points in regulation. UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots and 12-3 in their last 15 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. UNDER is also 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in their last 5 following a game where they failed to cover. These trends add up to form a strong 82% (32-7) system. Take the UNDER! |
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04-27-15 | Atlanta Hawks -4.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks - The Hawks have had a surprisingly tough time with the Nets so far in the series and are coming off a 83-91 defeat in Game 3. Atlanta clearly hasn't played to the same level as we saw early on the regular season, but I'm not about to give up on the Hawks. Atlanta's struggles in the last two games have simply been a result of poor shooting. The Hawks shot just 38.9% from the field in Game 2 and 35.6% in Game 3. The key thing to note is that they are getting good looks and with the shooters they have it's only a matter of time before they get going. The Nets are playing with a hobbled Deron Williams and to this point have over-achieved in the series. It's also important to note that Brooklyn doesn't have much of a homecourt advantage, as they went just 19-22 at home during the regular season. Hawks are 23-13 ATS this season when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 after playing their previous game on the road. Atlanta is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on a full days rest. These trends combine to form a strong 67% (41-20) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta! |
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04-26-15 | Los Angeles Clippers +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 114-105 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Clippers + This is a perfect spot to back the Clippers in Game 4. After dominating Game 1 107-92, LA gave one away in Game 2 in overtime and were simply outplayed in Game 3 at San Antonio. As a result of the Spurs 100-73 win in Game 3, we have seen this line jump quite a bit. The Spurs were just a 4.5-point favorite in Game 3 and are now laying 6 at home in Game 4. I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I really like the Clippers chances of winning this game outright. LA couldn't buy a basket in Game 3 and you could see it had a negative effect on their play defensively. I'm confident the Clippers will shoot better than 34% in Game 4. Road underdogs revenging a home loss of 20 or more points against an opponent against an opponent off a home win by 10+ points are 47-20 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% long-term system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-25-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trailblazers -3 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
5* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA No Limit Top Play on Trail Blazers - After getting embarrassed in the first two games of the series at Memphis, I look for the Trail Blazers to bounce back in a big way at home in Game 3. Portland finished the regular season with one of the top home records in the league at 32-9 and I'm confident they will answer the call with their season on the line. The Trail Blazers certainly can't shoot any worse than they have to start the series. After going just 33.7% from the field in Game 1, Portland shot just 39% in Game 2. Their defense actually did a decent job against the Grizzlies, holding them under 45% in both games. Portland shot 45% from the field at home in the regular season and I believe the comfort of home will be the difference in this one. Counting their final regular season game, where they shot just 41.8% at Dallas, we find Portland in a very profitable spot here, as they are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games after shooting 42% or worse in their last 3 games. It's also worth noting that road underdogs who have won 3 or more straight home games and are playing just their 5th game in 14 days are a mere 10-32 ATS since 1996. That's a 76% long-term system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland! |
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04-23-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +3 | Top | 113-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA No Limit Top Play on Bucks + This line alone is telling you that the oddsmakers are expecting the Bucks to win Game 3, as the betting public will be all over Chicago with this low line. The Bulls won Game 1 by 12 and Game 2 by 9, but both of those games were closer than than the final score would indicate. While Chicago certainly doesn't want this series to drag out, they have a nice 2-0 cushion and could be focused more on saving up for Game 4 and looking to close out the series in Game 5. Either way I like the Bucks chances of pulling off the upset here. Keep in mind the Bulls will be missing a big piece to the puzzle, as Nikola Mirotic is out with a quad injury suffered in Game 2. He's a big loss, as he does everything well and allows the Bulls to space the floor offensively with his ability to hit the 3-point shot. Bucks are 20-9 ATS this season after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 following 2 or more consecutive losses. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-22-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -1 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
5* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Clippers - The Clippers dominated Game 1 of the series 107-92. While most will be looking to back the Spurs in huge rebound spot, I believe the real value here is with Los Angeles at basically a pick'em at home. San Antonio simply has no answer for Griffin and Paul and figure to be in even more trouble with Tony Parker nursing an ankle injury. Backing the team that loss the previous game in a playoff series is typically a strong investment, but that's not the case given the circumstances for this matchup. Coming into the playoffs, road teams off a road loss with a -3.5 to +3.5 have gone just 28-55-1 (33.7%) ATS since 2002. Keep in mind that the Clippers have now won three straight against the Spurs and that San Antonio is just 1-8 ATS this season in road games against teams that have won between 60% to 70% of their games (0-7 last 7). They are also just 9-21 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games in the 2nd half against teams scoring 103+ ppg. On the other hand LA is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (50-19) system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-21-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets UNDER 215.5 | Top | 99-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Total Top Play on Mavs/Rockets UNDER These two teams combined for 226 points in Game 1, easily surpassing the total of 213. That high-scoring affair has forced the books to raise the total by 2.5-points and thus creating some great value on the UNDER. The defensive intensity is at a different level in the playoffs and it gets turned up a notch after the first game of the series. Dallas tried to focus all their attention on Harden in Game 1 and it backfired with the other guys stepping up. Head coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best ad making adjustments in the playoffs and I look for the Mavericks to do a much better job defensively in Game 2. It's important to note that these two teams played 4 times during the regular season and all 4 of those meetings finished with fewer than 211 points. One of things that gets overlooked is how good defensively the Rockets were given their pace. Houston ranked 6th in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. UNDER is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent and 13-5 in the Rockets last 18 when facing a team that's won 60% to 70% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 30-8 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off 2 or more consecutive overs (HOU) against an opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs (DAL). That's a 79% system. Take the UNDER! |
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04-20-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187 | Top | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on UNDER It looked like Game 1 was going to fly over the total of 186 after the Milwaukee and Chicago combined for 111 points in the 1st half. Instead they just barely finished over the mark at 194. The Bucks managed just 40 points in the 2nd half and the Bulls scored just 43. I believe that's more of the type of offensive output that we can expect to see going forward. Chicago's defense has really came on strong down the stretch and the Bucks just don't have any real dynamic offensive players. The Bulls have held the Bucks to just 85.3 ppg over the last 8 meetings and aren't going to take their foot off the gas. Chicago needs to finish this series quickly and make sure they are 100% going into their much anticipated round 2 showdown against the Cavs. UNDER is 6-1 in the Bucks last 7 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 19-8 in their last 27 road games when revenging a road loss. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Bulls last 29 off a home by 10+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 60+ in the first half of their previous game. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (56-20) system. Take the UNDER! |
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04-18-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls -7.5 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls - The Bulls have once again overcame numerous injuries to win 50-games, but unlike previous years they are entering the playoffs healthy. I think Chicago is more than capable of winning the entire thing and certainly should have no problem getting past a slumping Bucks team. Milwaukee has not been the same team since they traded away Brandon Knight and lost 3 of 4 during the season series to Chicago. Three of those wins for the Bulls came by 8 or more points and the lone loss was by just 4-points on the road and they were missing Rose. The Bucks are not a good road team and I just don't see them being able to keep this one close enough to cover. Milwaukee went just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that had won more than 60% of their games. Chicago is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing with a full 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 79% (15-4) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
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04-15-15 | San Antonio Spurs -5 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Spurs - The Pelicans need to win this game to make the playoffs, as a New Orleans loss and an Oklahoma City win over the lowly Timberwolves would leave the Pelicans out of the postseason. Unfortunately for New Orleans, this game means a lot to the Spurs as well. With a win San Antonio can secure the No. 2 seed in the West, while a loss could push the Spurs as far back the No. 6 seed. Given the fact that San Antonio has won a season-best 11 straight games to get to this point, I don't see them not finishing off their run with a win here at New Orleans. The Pelicans have won 7 of 10, but only won of those came against a playoff team and that was at home against Golden State, who didn't have much to play for, were in the midst of playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and fresh off a crushing 15-point loss at San Antonio. This team simply isn't as good as their recent run would suggest, which in turn has created some great value here on the Spurs. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who led in their previous game by 15+ points at the half against an opponent that has scored 100+ in 2 straight games are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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04-14-15 | Toronto Raptors -1.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 93-95 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors - Despite having Monday off, the Celtics clinched one of the final two playoff spots in the east, thanks to a Nets loss at home to the Bulls. Boston has been playing as well as anyone down the stretch and laying it all the line to get into the playoffs. Now that the goal has officially been accomplished, it's human nature for them to suffer a letdown. Toronto is also locked into the playoffs and have secured homecourt advantage in the first round, but they are still battling with Chicago for the No. 3 spot, which is the difference between playing a dangerous Wizards team or a slumping Bucks team in the first round. That's not the only motivation here for the Raptors, as they will be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 116-117 home loss to the Celtics earlier this month (4/4). Toronto can also set a franchise record for wins in a season with a victory. Adding to this is a strong system. Home teams off a game where they led by 20+ points at the half are just 74-111 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 60% long-term system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto! |
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04-12-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 104-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pacers/Thunder UNDER With both Oklahoma City and Indiana fighting for their playoff lives right now and both teams fresh off a days rest, I'm expecting both to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. The Pacers are currently 9th in the east, but are just 1-game back of both Boston and Brooklyn. The Thunder are in tie for 8th with the Pelicans, but technically 9th as they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker. Indiana allowed 103 in their last game against Detroit, but prior to that had held each of their previous 3 opponents under 90 points. While Oklahoma City's defense hasn't been great of late, the Pacers are only averaging 97.3 ppg on the season. These two teams combined for just 197 in the previous meeting this season in Oklahoma City and the last time they played in Indiana the two combined for just 199. UNDER is 29-14 in the Thunders last 43 after allowing 100+ in 4 straight games and 35-19 in the Pacers last 54 after allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less in each of their last 5 games. Take the UNDER! |
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04-07-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Miami Heat UNDER 189 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Hornets/Heat UNDER Miami is tied with Indiana at 34-43, which has them 1-game back of the Celtics for the 8th and final spot in the Easter Conference. Charlotte is right behind both of those teams at 33-43, just 1.5-games out of the playoffs. With just 5-games left on the schedule, both teams desperately need a win here. I believe it's going to a lead to a low-scoring game, as both of these teams rely a lot on their defensive. The Heat are allowing just 97.2 ppg and Charlotte is giving up 97.0 ppg, while both teams average less than 95 ppg offensively. All 3 of the previous matchups this season have seen a combined score of 187 or less, including a mere 154 in the most recent matchup. UNDER is 0-9 this season when Charlotte is playing with 2 days rest and 2-12 in the Heat's last 14 when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). These two trends combine to form a dynamite 91% (21-2) system. Take the UNDER! |
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04-03-15 | Denver Nuggets +12.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 93-123 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Undervalued Underdog Game of the Month on Nuggets + While the Spurs are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, not once during this stretch have they been laying this many points. In fact, the last time San Antonio was this big of a favorite, was at New York, where they lost outright 100-104 as a 14-point favorite. As good as the Spurs are playing right now, this line has been drastically inflated. Denver might be out of the playoff picture, but this is a game I believe you can be confident they will show up to play. The Nuggets have lost all 3 meetings so far this season, but have been able to keep it respectable, as all 3 losses have come by 10-points or less, including a 9-point loss in the most recent meeting in San Antonio. San Antonio is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when they come in having played 5 consecutive games as a favorite, while the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 10+ points that have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 against an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 are 87-50 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver! |
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04-02-15 | Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 199 | Top | 88-114 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
5* Heat/Cavs TNT Total of the Month on UNDER The Cavaliers sit comfortably in 2nd in the east, 8 games back of Atlanta and 3 ahead of the Raptors and Bulls with just 7 games to play, but I don't see them taking their foot off the gas until they have secured the No. 2 spot. This also isn't just another opponent for Cleveland, as LeBron James will be going up against his former team in Miami, who the Cavaliers have lost twice to by double-digits, including the most recent meeting 92-106 in Miami on 3/16. Anytime you play the Cavaliers it means something more, but the Heat are also in playoff mode. Miami holds the 7th spot in the east, thanks to a tie-breaker over Brooklyn, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of 9th place Boston and 2 in front of 10th place Charlotte. Needless to say this game means a lot to the Heat. With the importance of this matchup for both teams, combined with the fact that we have two strong defensive teams playing in a nationally televised game on TNT, I'm expecting this one to go under the total set of 199. Miami is giving up just 95.6 ppg and the Cavs are allowing only 95.8 ppg. UNDER is 10-2 in the Heat's last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 21-6 in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-3 in their last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. UNDER is also 5-1 in Cavs' last 6 home games, 23-10 in their last 33 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-3-1 in their last 15 versus a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (78-25) system. Take the UNDER! |
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04-01-15 | New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Pelicans - New Orleans currently sits in 9th place in the Western Conference, just 2.5-games out of the 8th and final playoff spot. Losing to a team like the Lakers, home or away, is simply not an option for the Pelicans at this point in the season. Los Angeles is coming off a win at Philadelphia in their last game, but haven't won back-to-back games since February and this is not a great spot for the Lakers. Getting motivated this late in the season can be extremely hard for a bad team like LA and even more so when they are coming off a lengthy 5-game road trip with their last two coming completely on the other side of the country. The other big key here is that New Orleans has had their way with the Lakers this season, winning all three matchups, including each of the last two by 16+ points. Their dominance over LA has a lot to do with the Lakers not having anyone who can matchup against Anthony Davis, who is averaging 25.7 points on 69% shooting, 8.7 rebounds and 4 blocks in the 3 games during the season series. Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 after playing 2 straight road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, while the Pelicans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games with a total set at 195 to 199.5 and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6. These trends combine to form a 80% (39-10) system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans! |
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03-31-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -2 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
5* GS/LAC Western Conference Game of the Month on Clippers - While Golden State has won 9 straight and 14 of 15 overall, this is a great spot to go against the Warriors, as they clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with their last win at Milwaukee. The focus now for Golden State will be getting ready for the playoffs, and that will like result in key players getting some time off. The Clippers have won 7 straight, but they are still in a battle for playoff seeding, including home court in the first round. This game simply means a lot more to Los Angeles and I expect them to deliver at home. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams that allow 98-102 ppg after a combined score of 205+ in each of their last two games are 42-16 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
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03-30-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 193 | Top | 113-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Month on 76ers/Lakers OVER I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in tonight's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. These two teams did combine for just 188 points on 3/22, but that was with the 76ers shooting a mere 36.0% from the field. It was the Lakers best defensive effort since December of 2013, which has me confident that it's not going to repeat itself, especially considering LA will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and their 5th straight on the road overall. OVER is 6-1 in the Lakers last 7 games after their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 22-11 in their last 33 when they come in having lost 12 or more of their last 15. OVER is also 42-27 in the 76ers last 69 home games after going under the total in their last game and 7-3 in their last 10 against an opponent that allowed 100+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 65% (77-42) system. Take the OVER! |
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03-29-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 207 | Top | 119-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Total of the Month on Clippers/Celtics UNDER The books have set the mark too high for Sunday's showdown between the Clippers and Celtics. Boston has held each of their last 3 opponents to 93 points or less, while LA has held each of their last 4 under the century mark. These two teams combined for just 195 points in their previous meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar combined score in the rematch. Another big key here to this one going under the mark is that both of these teams are fighting for playoff spots. The Clippers are a 1/2 game back of the Blazers for the No.4 spot and home court in the first round, while Boston is just a 1/2 game ahead of Brooklyn and 1 in front of both Indiana and Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 55-23 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 to 209.5 where the home team is revenging a loss against an opponent that is coming in off a road win by 10+ points. That's a 71% system. Take the UNDER! |
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03-25-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards -3.5 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Wizards - Both of these teams come into this game in the midst of a minor slump. The Pacers have dropped 6 straight, while the Wizards come in having lost 3 in a row. The key thing to note hear is that Washington's poor play came on west coast trip which included two games against two of the elite teams in the Clippers and Warriors sandwiched around a game against the Kings. Indiana's poor play has come with them playing 4 of their last 5 at home and they are just 12-22 on the road. Washington is a completely different team at home than on the road. The Wizards are 25-10 SU at home, where they have won 5 straight, including recent wins over both the the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers. Offensively the Wizards shoot the ball at a much better clip at home and also get after it more defensively. Indiana is getting to much respect from their recent run and I feel like this is a great spot to take advantage of a short line with a better team at home. Indiana is a mere 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games played in March, 16-28 ATS in their last 44 when playing 6 or more in a span of 10 days and 6-21 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Take Washington! |
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03-18-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11 | Top | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavs - This may seem like a big number to back the Cavs at home against the Nets off back-to-back wins, but Cleveland is on a mission to secure that No. 2 seed and will be extra motivated after getting embarrassed at Miami 92-106 in their last game. Brooklyn's two game winning streak is far from impressive, as they knocked off the 76ers and Timberwolves. Prior to that the Nets had dropped 5 straight and 10 of their last 14 overall. Cleveland has won 13 straight at home and during this stretch are outscoring opponents by 15.7 ppg, which is why I'm not to concerned laying the big number here. It's also worth noting that the Cavaliers will be at full strength, as Kevin Love is expected to return after sitting out the last two. Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by 10 or more points, while Cleveland is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites of 10+ points who have went over the total by 30+ points in their last 5 games, who have won 60% to 75% of their games and are playing a team with a losing record are 41-16 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a strong 72% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
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03-16-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards -2 | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards - After an ugly stretch that saw them lose 6-straight, Washington has returned to form with three straight blowout wins over the Hornets (95-69), Grizzlies (107-87) and Kings (113-97) and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a win at home against the Trail Blazers. Portland has won 3 straight and 8 of 9 overall, but find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. The Trail Blazers not only will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Adding to this is the fact that the Trail Blazers are just a 16-14 team on the road, compared to 28-6 at home. Washington will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost 96-103 at Portland back on Jan. 24. The Wizards are an impressive 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when revenging a loss to an opponent where they allowed 100+ points. Washington is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win by more than 10 points, while the Blazers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games with a total set at 195 to 199.5 points. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (43-20) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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03-15-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 201.5 | Top | 123-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Magic/Cavs UNDER 201.5 The books have set the mark too high for this one, which isn't a big surprise given that the Cavaliers come in off a game against the Spurs where the two teams combined for 253 points. Prior to that Cleveland had held Dallas to 94 points and the Suns to just 79 in their last two games. Orlando isn't a great defensive team, but have been playing much better on that side of the ball since making a coaching change. The Magic have held 12 of their 15 opponents under the century mark. It's also worth noting that each of the two previous meetings this season have seen 187 and 180 points. UNDER is 14-5 in the Cavaliers last 19 after allowing 105+ points in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 off a win by 6 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 games played on Sunday. These trends combine to form a strong 78% (35-10) system. Take the UNDER! |
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03-14-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 194 | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Nets/76ers OVER I'm expecting these two teams to fly over the total tonight. Brooklyn has allowed 100+ in three straight and 5 of their last 6. The only exception being a home game against a Utah team that is playing extremely well on the defensive end. The 76ers were able to snap out of their recent shooting funk with 114 points on 47% shooting in a home win over the Kings last time out and I look for that to carry over to this one. The other big key here is that the 76ers are not a strong defensive team and will gladly let this game turn into a shootout. OVER is 22-9 in the 76ers last 31 home games after playing two straight as a home dog, 5-0 in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game. OVER is also 4-1 in the Nets last 5 when facing an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (44-14) system. Take the OVER! |
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03-09-15 | Washington Wizards +1.5 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 95-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
5* Wizards/Hornets Southeast Game of the Month on Wizards + This line is begging for you to take the Hornets as a small home favorite. Charlotte is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games, while the Wizards are a mere 2-7 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9. Not to mention the Hornets have won both of the previous two meetings this season. Charlotte is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. I look for the Hornets to struggle to match the Wizards intensity after having to use a lot of energy to rally late to beat the Pistons yesterday in a high-scoring affair. We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of Washington. Favorites that are shooting 33% or worse from behind the 3-point line are 34-70 ATS in the month of March over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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03-08-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 193.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets/Pistons UNDER These two teams combined for just 184 points in their only other meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair in this one. Charlotte has scored 100+ in 3 straight games and are simply not built to sustain that kind of offensive success, but in the short term it has created some great value here. The Hornets are only averaging 95.0 ppg and are a team built on their effort defensively. Charlotte has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 94 points or less, while the Pistons have scored 95 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. While Detroit hasn't been playing great defensively of late, they hold New Orleans to just 88 points two games ago and figure to be highly motivated to snap a 5-game losing streak. UNDER is 14-4 in the Hornets last 18 after scoring 100+ in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-2 in their last 9 road games and 8-1 in their last 9 when coming in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Pistons last 15 games after allowing 100+, 6-1 in their last 7 following a SU loss and 4-0 in their last 4 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. These trends combine to form a 82% (51-11) system. Take the UNDER! |
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03-06-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 97-106 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Year on Cavs - This game means a lot more to the Cavaliers than it does the Hawks. Atlanta has a comfortable 10-game lead in the east and are all but a shoe-in to take home the No. 1 seed. Cleveland on the other hand is fighting for position and will be out for double-revenge after losing each of the last two meetings. The key here is that this is a different Cavaliers team than the one the Hawks beat up on earlier in the season. Cleveland has gone 20-4 over their last 24 games and three of those losses came in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. The Cavs come in with a full day of rest and I look for them to come out an make a statement. The Hawks won 104-96 as a 8.5-point home favorite against the Rockets on Wednesday, which sets them up in a good spot to fade. Atlanta is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when playing with 2 days of rest and 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off a win where they failed to cover the spread. Adding to this is the fact that Cleveland is a dominant 10-2 ATS in their 12 games in the 2nd half against opponents who are scoring 99+ points/game and winning these contests by an average of 11.4 ppg. These trends add up to form a strong 78% (42-12) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
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03-03-15 | Houston Rockets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 199.5 | Top | 96-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Hawks UNDER These two teams combined for just 203 points in the Hawks 104-97 win at Houston in their previous meeting this season. That contest had a total of just 197 points and now we find the total sitting even higher with the Rockets playing without potential MVP James Harden, who had 18 points and 14 assists in that earlier defeat. This will be Houston's first game this season without Harden and not having him on the floor is going to have their offense struggling to get going. It also wouldn't come as a big surprise with Harden suspended for just 1-game if the rest of the Rockets players didn't take this game all that seriously. A lot is made of the Hawks efficiency offensively, which covers up the fact that this is a very good defensive team that is only allowing 95.1 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that Atlanta has scored 100+ just once in their last 6 games and have not had a game finish with a combined score of 200 or more since Feb. 9. UNDER is 24-15 in the Rockets last 39 games with a total set at 200 or more points and 39-19 in their last 58 road games when they come in having scored 100+ in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 15-4 in Houston's last 19 in the 2nd half against teams who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game and 20-8 in the Hawks last 28 home games in the 2nd half against teams with a winning record. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 70-28 since 1996 in games where you have a team off a road win against a division rival (Hawks) against an opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less (Rockets). That's a 71% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER! |
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02-27-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Chicago Bulls -6 | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Bulls - With the recent news of the Bulls losing Rose to another knee injury and Chicago losing their first game without him 86-98 at home to the Hornets, the public has quickly backed off this team. Minnesota on the other hand comes in off an impressive 99-77 win at home over the Wizards. I believe we are seeing a huge overreaction not only to the Rose injury, but based on the last game. It shouldn't have come as a big surprise to see Chicago stumble in their first game without Rose, as his injury really came out of nowhere and the focus just wasn't there. Minnesota is actually the team poised for a letdown, after laying everything they had on the line in Garnett's first game back. The Timberwolves are also not nearly as good on the road, where they have gone a miserable 5-23 this season. Minnesota is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 against the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a SU loss by 10+ points. These trends combine to form a 74% (23-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago! |
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02-26-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers - The Cavaliers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Warriors. Cleveland has turned the corner and are arguably playing the best basketball of any team in the league right now. The Cavaliers have won 16 of 19 overall and 10 straight at home by an impressive 15.2 ppg. The Warriors did hand Cleveland a 112-94 defeat on their home floor back on Jan. 9, but the Cavaliers had yet to hit their stride and were playing without LeBron James. That loss only adds fuel to the fire for this matchup for Cleveland. That earlier loss and the Warriors amazing start to the season is a big reason why the Cavaliers are showing such great value at home. The key here is that Golden State has been extremely overvalued of late due to their strong start. The Warriors are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Cavaliers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 following a SU win, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games overall and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a 79% (49-13) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
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02-23-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 102-113 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Timberwolves + The Timberwolves are showing some great value here as a near double-digit underdog to the Rockets. Minnesota has quietly started playing much better basketball of late and the books are slow to adjust based on their 12-42 overall record. The Timberwolves returned from the All-Star break with a win at home over the Suns, giving them 4 wins in their last 6 games. The Rockets bounced back from a 110-111 loss at Dallas with a 98-76 blowout win at home over the Raptors, which is also playing into this inflated line. The key thing here is that Houston was all business against Toronto after losing to the Mavericks. I don't see that same intensity here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 days and a much bigger home game against the Clippers on deck, who they recently lost to by 15-points back on Feb. 11. The Rockets won the most recent meeting 114-112 at Minnesota, which sets up the Timberwolves in a profitable spot. Minnesota is 12-4 ATS this season revenging a home loss. The Timberwolves are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 2 days rest. It's also worth noting that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 84% (27-5) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota! |
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02-22-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 194 | Top | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER The books have set the mark too high in this one. Memphis will be playing their first game since the All-Star break and will be looking to start off strong after going into the break with an embarrassing 89-105 loss at Oklahoma City. The Trail Blazers are also going to be motivated here after an ugly 76-92 loss at Utah in their first game back from the break. Portland is a strong offensive team, but will take some time to adjust to the additions of Alonzo Gee and Arron Afflalo. I look for the Trail Blazers to struggle to get going offensively here against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Portland is better defensively than people give them credit for, especially at home where they are allowing just 93.1 ppg. UNDER is 19-9 in Portland's 28 home games this season, 22-10 in their last 32 home games after failing to cover the spread last time out and 27-12 in their last 39 off an upset loss by 10+ points. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 63-23 over the last 5 seasons on Sunday when you have a total of 190 to 199.5, with a team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a 73% long-term system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER! |
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02-20-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers -3 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 127-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers - The Cavaliers went into the All-Star break with an ugly 98-113 loss to the Bulls in a nationally televised game on TNT. Even with that defeat, Cleveland went into the break having won 14 of 16 and I look for them to come out with a statement win against the Wizards on ESPN. Washington made a trade for Ramon Sessions, but he's not expected to be available. The Wizards are still without the services of Bradley Beal and they went into the break having lost 6 of their last 8. Washington is just 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who have won 60% to 70% of their games and just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Wizards. Home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points against an opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite to a division rival are just 11-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
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02-09-15 | Orlando Magic v. Washington Wizards UNDER 197 | Top | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Magic/Wizards UNDER I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Wizards and Magic. Washington is coming of a 114-77 home win over the Nets, where they held Brooklyn to just 33.8% shooting. The Wizards had lost their previous 5, so I'm not expecting them to relax at all and I look for the energy to be there again defensively at home. Orlando on the other hand has been a much stronger defensive team since they fired head coach Jacque Vaughn. The Magic held the Lakers to just 97-points in their first game without Vaughn and held Chicago to 98 yesterday. Prior to these two games, Orlando had allowed 100+ in 14 straight games. Adding to this is the fact that these two teams have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last have seen a combined score of 191 or less and the Wizards are holding the Magic to just 91.5 ppg over the last 4. UNDER is 18-7-1 in Orlando's last 26 road games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 14-6-1 in their last 21 when playing on 0 days rest. UNDER is also 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games following a SU win, 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a lsing record and 19-7-1 in their last 27 when playing on 1 days rest. These trends add up to form a 73% (59-22) system. Take the UNDER! |
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02-08-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Houston Rockets -4.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
5* Blazers/Rockets Western Conf Game of the Month on Rockets - Good spot here to go against the Trail Blazers, who just lost in overtime last night against the Mavericks. That extra 5-minutes of action is going to make it hard for Portland to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to win on the road against the Rockets. All 5 starters played at least 37 minutes with everyone but Brook Lopez playing at least 40 minutes. Tired legs is the last thing you want against James Harden and Houston's uptempo attack. I look for the Rockets to come out really looking to push the tempo here and they shouldn't have much a problem doing so. This will be just their 3rd game in the month of February and each of the previous two have both come at home. Houston is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games when playing against a team with a winning record, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games after playing their last game as a favorite and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games after a non-conference matchup. Portland is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 following a SU loss, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (62-18) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
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02-06-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 197 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Cavs UNDER I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than what the books are anticipating with this total. Cleveland comes in off an impressive offensive performance against the Clippers, but I just don't see them coming out with that same level of intensity offensively on the road against a bad team like the Pacers in the second game of a back-to-back set. Indiana knows that their only chance of winning this game is to slow down the tempo and really turn up the energy defensively. The Pacers have done a pretty good job of that at home, where they are holding opponents to just 96.3 ppg on the season. On the flip side of this, Indiana figures to have a difficult time scoring against a Cavaliers defense that is allowing just 90.4 ppg in their last 5. Adding to this is the fact Cleveland hasn't allowed 100 points in 10 straight and should have no problem slowing down a Pacers offense that is only averaging 95.5 ppg at home. UNDER is 11-2 in the Pacers 13 home games this season against teams who are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers/game, 10-1 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against teams outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, 7-1 in Cleveland's last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record and 22-4 in their last 26 against an opponent that allowed 100 or more in their last game. These trends combine to form a 86% (50-8) system. Take the UNDER! |
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02-05-15 | Washington Wizards +1 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards + The Wizards are coming into this contest having lost 4 straight and have failed to cover the number in each of their last 8 games. That includes a 88-92 loss at home to Hornets on Monday. Getting back in the win column combined with revenge against Charlotte, gives us confidence that we will get Washington's best effort in this one. While the Hornets have gone an impressive 11-3 over their last 14 games, they are playing without star point guard and leading scorer Kemba Walker. While Charlotte defeated the Wizards without Walker and are 5-1 without him, those other 4 wins have come against the likes of the Nuggets, Knicks, Timberwolves and Pacers. Wizards are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog, while the Hornets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road teams that are revenging a home loss against an opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 70-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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02-04-15 | Denver Nuggets v. Boston Celtics OVER 200.5 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Nuggets/Celtics OVER I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in this one. Both the Celtics and Nuggets will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and not a whole lot of motivation here given how poorly these two teams have been playing of late. Denver is just 1-10 in their last 11 games, while the Celtics are a 7-16 in their last 23. Both teams come in off less than impressive efforts defensively. The Celtics allowed New York to score 97 points on 49.4% shooting last night, while Denver allowed the 76ers lackluster offense to put up 105 points. The Nuggets also gave up 104 in their previous game against the offensively challenged Hornets. OVER is 26-13 in the Nuggets last 39 revenging a same season loss, 21-9 in their last 30 road games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 6-1 in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 19-9 in the Celtics last 28 home games against poor pressure defensive teams (14 or less turnovers/game), 16-7-1 in their last 24 following a SU win and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 50-22 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 to 209.5 points that features two bad teams (25% to 40%) facing off in the 2nd half of the season. That's a 69% system. Take the OVER! |
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02-02-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Toronto Raptors OVER 203.5 | Top | 82-75 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Raptors/Bucks OVER I'm expecting a very high scoring game tonight between the Bucks and Raptors. Toronto comes in averaging 116.8 ppg over their last 5 contests, while Milwaukee is averaging a respectable 103.0 ppg over their last 5 outings. In the previous meeting this season at Toronto in the series, these two combined for 207 points with the Bucks only managing 83 points on 36.5% shooting. I look for Milwaukee to provide a lot more offense this time, which should have this one flying well over the mark set by the books. Adding to this is the fact that the OVER is 8-0 in the Bucks last 8 trips to Toronto. This is also a solid spot to back the OVER with the Raptors off back-to-back road wins by 5 points or less. Teams in this spot have seen the OVER go 118-65 (65%) since 1996. The OVER is 14-3 in the Bucks last 17 games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field, 14-4 in their last 18 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-2 in their last 13 when they come in having won 4 of 5. OVER is also 11-2 in Raptors last 13 after allowing 105+ in 2 straight games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (55-11) system. Take the OVER! |
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01-30-15 | Dallas Mavericks -8.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 93-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Mavericks - This is the perfect spot to back Dallas, as I look for them to come out with one of their best performances of the season. The Mavericks have dropped a season-high 4 straight and questions are coming up whether the Rondo trade was a bad move. Getting back in the win column and proving their doubters wrong would have been plenty of motivation, but Dallas will also be playing with revenge from a 96-105 home loss to Miami back on Nov. 9. In that previous loss to the Heat earlier this season, Miami got 30-points from Luol Deng and 20 from Dwayne Wade, who went a combined 22 of 37 (59%) from the field. Unfortunately for the Heat, both Wade and Deng will be sitting out this one with injuries, which is going to allow Dallas to focus their attention on stopping Bosh and thus making it extremely difficult for the Heat to generate any offense. Another thing to keep in mind, is that Dallas has won more games on the road (16) than they have at home (14), while the Heat are the exact opposite. Miami is 8-14 at home, compared to 12-9 on the road. The Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams that have won fewer than 40% of their home games. Miami on the other hand is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ in their last game, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against the Western Conference's Southwest division and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have been beaten by the spread by 24 or more combined points in their last 3 games against an opponent that's gone under the total by 54 or more combined points in their last 10 are 31-8 ATS since 1996. That's a dynamite 80% system in favor of the Mavericks. Take Dallas! |
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01-28-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets -3.5 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on Rockets - The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Mavericks. Not only is Dallas in the midst of a minor slump with 3 straight losses, the Mavericks are in an awful scheduling spot, as they are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Dallas is 2-6 ATS when playing on 0 rest and just 1-8 ATS this season when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Rockets already knocked off Dallas at home 95-92 back on Nov. 22 and have won 3 of their last 4 at home against the Mavericks. Dallas is also a mere 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 against the Western Conference and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a division opponent. It's important to note that last night the Mavericks fell 90-109 at home to the Grizzlies as a 6-point favorite, as that sets up a great system to go against Dallas. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning record on the season, who are off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points and up against a team with a winning record are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% long-term system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
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01-27-15 | Toronto Raptors -3.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Raptors - The Raptors aren't getting the same respect that they were just a month ago. Toronto has gone just 5-8 since opening the season 24-7 and during this recent downfall have gone a mere 2-10-1 ATS. I believe it has the Raptors extremely undervalued as a small road favorite against the Pacers. Indiana comes in off an impressive 106-99 win at Orlando, which saw them shoot a season-best 51.8% from the field. I'm not buying that as anything more than taking advantage of a horrible Magic defense. The Pacers are only shooting 42.9% from the field on the season against opponents that on average have allowed 45.1% shooting. Prior to their hot shooting against Orlando, Indiana had dropped 7 straight and I expect them to return to their losing ways tonight. Indiana is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100+ points last time out. The Pacers are also a dismal 0-7 ATS this season at home when revenging a loss to an opponent (lost 94-106 at Toronto on Dec. 12). Toronto is 21-10 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing against a team that's won only 25% to 40% of their games and 21-4 ATS in their last 25 versus strong rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. These trends combine to form a DYNAMITE 80% (60-15) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto! |
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01-25-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 209 | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Magic UNDER The books have completely missed the mark on this one. The Magic come into this game ranked 24th in scoring at 95.7 ppg and the Pacers are 27th at 94.7 ppg. We are simply getting an inflated total here due to Orlando having gone OVER the total in each of their last 7 games, including each of their last two with totals of 209 and 206.5. You have to go all the way back to March of 2010 to find the last time these two teams played a game with a combined score of at least 209 points. Each of their last 20 games in the series have finished below the mark set for this game, including an earlier matchup this season which saw a combined score of just 181 points. UNDER is 13-4 in the Magic's last 17 games played on Sunday and 87-2 in their last 10 against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 14-3-1 in the Pacers' last 18 games against a team with a losing record. Adding to all of this a strong system. UNDER is 24-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more points when you have an average team that is +/- 3 ppg differential (Pacers) against a poor team with a -3 to -7 ppg differential, that trailed in their last 2 games by 10 or more at the half. That's a 83% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER! |
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01-23-15 | Boston Celtics v. Denver Nuggets -9 | Top | 100-99 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Nuggets - This may seem like a lot of points to lay on the Nuggets, who come into tonight's contest having dropped 4 straight, but this is a perfect spot to back Denver and fade the Celtics. The Nuggets are going to be extremely motivated at home to put an end to their losing streak, while Boston is in a horrible scheduling spot. The Celtics come in off a highly contested 90-89 win at Portland last night and now face the difficult task of going to play in one of thin air of Denver on no rest. Adding to this is the fact that the win over the Blazers isn't all that impressive given Portland's injury problems right now. Prior to that win, Boston had lost 4 of their last 5 and each of their previous 3 by at least 9 points. It's also worth noting that while Boston is going to be tired, Denver comes in on a full 2 days of rest. History is also on our side in this one. Denver has won 5 straight at home with their last loss to the Celtics at the Pepsi Center coming back in 2009. The smallest margin of victory for Denver during their home winning streak against Boston is 7-points and the last time they hosted the Celtics they won by 31 (129-98). Adding to all of this is a strong system. Teams off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points against an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 90 or fewer points are 46-19 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver! |
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01-20-15 | San Antonio Spurs -8 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
5* Spurs/Nuggets Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs - This may seem like a lot of points for the Spurs to be laying on the road against the Nuggets, but I look for San Antonio to have no problem winning here by at least 10 points. The Spurs are finally starting to get healthy and are a perfect 2-0 since Kawhi Leonard returned to the lineup with both coming via blowouts. They knocked off Portland at home 110-96 on Friday and came back with a 89-69 win at home over the Jazz on Sunday. San Antonio isn't going to take their foot off the gas, as they are currently sitting in just 7th place in the Western Conference. While the Spurs are on the upswing, Denver is in a bit of a free fall right now. The Nuggets have lost 3 straight, including an ugly 105-113 home loss to the Timberwolves on Saturday and a 79-122 defeat yesterday at Golden State. While you could argue that Denver is primed for a bounce back performance, I don't believe that to be the case at all. The Nuggets are in an absolutely brutal scheduling spot, as they not only are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days overall. Denver is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road loss by more than 10 points, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 1-9 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Spurs are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 road games after playing two straight as a home favorite. These trends combine to form a 78% (58-16) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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01-16-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 199 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Blazers OVER This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this season and both of the previous matchups have seen plenty of offense. The Spurs and Blazers combined for 203 points in Portland back on Dec. 15 and a few days later combined for 248 in a triple-overtime thriller at San Antonio. Adding to this is that 8 of the last 10 in the series have seen at least 200 points scored. A big key here is that the Spurs are expected to get back a big piece of their offense, as Kawhi Leonard is upgraded as probable. Leonard hasn't played since Dec. 15 and is San Anotonio's leading scorer at 15.2 ppg. Portland comes in averaging 105.1 ppg on the road and are giving up 100.6 ppg, while the Spurs are averaging 106.8 ppg at home and allowing 101.8 ppg. With the Spurs getting back one of their top scorers and Portland coming in with fresh legs (just their 2nd game in the last 5 days), I look for both teams to eclipse the century mark as this one flies over the total. OVER is 4-0 in the Trail Blazers last 4 games played on Friday. It's also 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 home games against teams who average 53+ rebounds/game, 4-0 in their 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-0 in their last 4 versus the Northwest Division. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (19-0) system. Take the OVER! |
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01-14-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Boston Celtics OVER 205 | Top | 105-91 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Celtics/Hawks OVER These two teams combined for 214 points in the Hawks 109-105 home win back on Dec. 2. I'm expecting even more offensive fireworks in the rematch. The Celtics just put up 108 points on the Pelicans at home last time out and are averaging 104.7 ppg at home on the season. Atlanta has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 104.1 ppg on the road. One of the big keys here is that both of these teams do an excellent job of sharing the basketball offensively. Atlanta averages 26 assists per game and Boston is right behind at 25. I look for the offenses to have their way in this one, as both teams don't figure to have a whole lot of energy left to use up on defense. Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days overall. I just don't see them giving max effort on defense here, especially with games against the Raptors and Bulls on deck this weekend. Celtics are playing with a day off, but this is their 4th game in the last 6 days. Boston also has a lot of new faces with their recent trades and aren't going to have the chemistry defensively to slow down an offense like the Hawks. OVER is 5-1 in Atlanta's last 6 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 32-16 in their last 48 when they come in having successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. OVER is also 12-4 in the Celtics last 16 when they come in having lost 2 of 3 and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog. Adding to this is a strong a system. OVER is 41-15 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that covered the spread last time out (Celtics) against an opponent that has covered in 6 or more straight games (Hawks). That's a 73% system. Take the OVER! |
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01-09-15 | Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Thunder - I have no problem laying this big number here on the Thunder at home against the Jazz. Oklahoma City is ripe for a huge bounce back performance after two ugly shooting performances on the road against the Warriors and Kings. The Thunder went just 30-98 (30.6%) from the field in a 91-117 loss at Golden State on Monday and 29-89 (32.6%) in a 83-104 defeat at Sacramento on Wednesday. It's a similar spot to what we saw back in last November. Oklahoma City was hosting the Jazz off a 86-91 loss at Golden State, where they shot just 35.6% from the field and the Thunder rolled Utah 97-82 at home behind a sizzling 48.2% shooting. The Jazz are allowing teams to make 46.4% of their shots on the season, including 37.2% from long distance. I look for the Thunder to come out with one of their best performances of the season, as this team simply can't afford not to take every game seriously right now. Oklahoma City is a full 4-games back the Suns/Spurs for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their 5 home games against the Jazz over the last 3 seasons and all 5 of those wins have come by at least 12 points. This is also a perfect spot to fade Utah off that 20-point win at Chicago as an 11-point dog. Underdogs that have won 25% to 40% of their games on the season, after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are a mere 6-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a dynamite 81% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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01-07-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 211 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Mavs OVER These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set for this matchup. Dallas comes into this game allowing a league-best 109.5 ppg and have been even better at home, putting up 111.8 ppg. With the Pistons having just played last night in a closely contested game at San Antonio and this being their 3rd game in the last 4 days, Detroit isn't going to have the energy to slow down this Dallas offensive attack. The Pistons are going to have rely on their offense to keep them in this one and I expect them to have no problem providing enough here to push this game well over the mark. The Pistons are averaging 107.8 ppg over their 6-game winning streak and Dallas is giving up an average of 102.6 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that these two teams played recently in Detroit and combined for 223 points in a 117-106 Mavs win back on Dec. 17. It was the third straight meeting in this series that saw at least 215 points. OVER is 13-4 in Pistons last 17 games against a team that's won 70% or more of their games, 12-1 in their last 13 against the Western Conference's Southwest division, 28-9 in their last 37 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 23-8 in the Mavs last 31 after playing 3 straight on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (76-22) system. Take the OVER! |
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01-05-15 | Washington Wizards +3 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards + The Wizards come into this contest off 3 straight road losses, while the Pelicans enter off a 28-point home win over the Rockets, which has created some big time value on Washington as a 3-point road dog tonight. The Wizards 3-game road losing streak have come against the likes of the Mavericks, Thunder and Spurs. Prior to their skid, Washington had lost a total of 3 games over their previous 16 contests. I look for the Wizards to clamp down defensively and come away with a win in the final game of their 5-game west coast road trip. As impressive as New Orleans' win over Houston was, the Pelicans have struggled to put together consecutive victories. New Orleans has followed up each of their previous 4 wins with a loss. The Pelicans are clearly one of the more improved teams this season, but they aren't quite there yet. Wizards are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog, 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games after allowing 100 or more points in each of their last two contests and a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 55 points or more in the 1st half of their last game. It's also worth noting that the Wizards held the Pelicans to just 80 points in a 83-80 home win back on Nov. 29. Favorites off a home win that are revenging a loss where they scored 85 points or less are just 30-60 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Adding to this is an even stronger system on Washington. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are a strong offensive team (98-102 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 100 or more in each of their last two games are 25-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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01-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit ATS Game of the Month on Grizzlies - Memphis is showing some great value here as a mere 4.5-point road favorite against the Lakers. The Grizzlies have answered their 4-game losing streak with a 103-95 win at Miami and a 95-87 home victory against the Spurs and I look for them to come out motivated off a 2-day break. While they will likely be without Zach Randolph once again, his absence isn't going to hurt them against a Lakers team that doesn't play defense and is giving up 55 rebounds/game. I also like the fact that we are catching the Lakers off back-to-back games where they shot better than 50% from the field and will be facing one of the top defensive teams in the league. Prior to that the Lakers had gone 14 straight games without a single game where they 50% or better. Lakers are just 4-11 at home this year and Memphis is 10-4 SU on the road and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team that's won less than 40% of their home games. The Grizzlies have also thrived on the road when they come in well rested. Memphis is 22-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Lakers. Home underdogs who are a terrible defensive team that is allowing 103+ points/game, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are just 8-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis! |
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12-30-14 | Detroit Pistons -1.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 109-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Pistons - The Pistons are a perfect 2-0 since getting rid of Josh Smith and have arguably put together their two best performances in these victories. Detroit won 119-109 at home against the Pacers last Friday and followed it up with a shocking 103-80 blowout win on the road against the Cavaliers. The Pistons are now just 6 games out of playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and I look for them carry over that momentum with another easy win tonight against the Magic. While Orlando comes in off two straight wins as well, this is a horrible spot for the Magic. Orlando played last night in Miami. Not only will they been in a difficult back-to-back spot, but they find themselves playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. I just don't see the Magic being able to keep pace with Detroit in this one, who will be out for revenge after losing 93-107 at home to Orlando back on Nov. 17. Detroit is 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games when they come in having lost at least 15 of their last 20 games overall and 38-19 ATS in their last 57 road games off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Pistons. Road teams that are revenging a loss to an opponent where they were listed as the favorite and are coming off a win by 10 or more over a division rival are 27-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit! |
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12-27-14 | Orlando Magic v. Charlotte Hornets OVER 190 | Top | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year on Magic/Hornets OVER We are getting some exceptional value here due to both these teams coming off low-scoring games last night. Charlotte connected on a franchise worst 28.7% of their field goal attempts in a 77-98 loss at Oklahoma City, while the Magic managed just 89 points in a 89-98 defeat at home to the Cavaliers. Keep in mind that these two teams played recently in Charlotte back on Nov. 21. The total for that game was just 191 points and they combined to score 205. It was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings these teams combined for at least 205 points. I look for this trend to continue when these two division rivals square off tonight. Another big key here is that both of teams are playing on little rest, which I believe will lead to little to no intensity on the defensive end. Orlando will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in 9 nights, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 6th in 9 days. OVER is 6-1 in Magic's last 7 games against a team with a losing record and 8-3 in the Hornets last 11 games against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 8-3 in Charlotte's last 11 at home and 14-5 in their last 19 off a loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (36-12) system backing this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER! |
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12-26-14 | Charlotte Hornets +6.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 75-98 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Hornets + This is a great spot to fade the Thunder at home against the surging Hornets. Oklahoma City is in a huge letdown spot after laying it all on the line in yesterday's 114-106 win at San Antonio. I just don't see the Thunder having enough left in the tank to blowout Charlotte at home. Oklahoma City isn't just playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. The Thunder are also still without last year's MVP Durant. The Hornets have came to life with Lance Stephenson sidelined, going 4-0 without the prized free agent signing. I look for the Hornets to continue their strong play on the road against Oklahoma City, as they come in off a full 2 days of rest. Dating back to last season, Charlotte is an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games games in the month of December. Th Hornets are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 2 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of the Thunder. Home favorites that have allowed 100 or more points in each of their last 4 games, against an opponent that has scored 100 or more in their last 4 games are just 19-49 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte! |
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12-23-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Phoenix Suns OVER 213 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Mavs OVER I believe we are catching some great value here on the OVER due to the Mavericks struggles offensively in their first two games since acquiring Rajon Rondo. Dallas was able to overcome a slow start last night against the Hawks with a 64 point second half and I look for them to carry over that momentum offensively to tonight's matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is also going to be playing with a lot of confidence offensively, as they just swept a 3-game road trip, where they averaged 104.7 ppg. The big key here is that both of these teams aren't very strong defensively. The Mavericks come in allowing 102.5 ppg and the Suns are even worse at 103.1 ppg. Both of these offenses like to push the pace and I believe it's going to result in this one flying over the total of 213.5. OVER is 10-1 in Mavericks last 11 games when their starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day, 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and 4-0 in their last 4 when playing with no rest. OVER is also 4-1 in Suns last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 9-3 in their last 12 versus the Western Conference. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 34-9 since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more points with the home team coming off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent that is off a close loss by 3-points or less. That's a 79% system backing this one to go over the mark. Take the OVER! |
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12-21-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 194 | Top | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Over/Under Total of the Month on Sixers/Magic UNDER On Sundays when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and a team is averaging less than 11 rebounds per game, the UNDER is 348-230 (60.2%) since 1996. In the same situation of games on Sundays and totals in the 190s with teams getting out rebounded by 5+ boards per game, the UNDER is 33-10 (76.7%) since 1996. Take the UNDER here today. |
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12-20-14 | Utah Jazz v. Charlotte Hornets OVER 191.5 | Top | 86-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year on Hornets/Jazz OVER Both of these teams played last night and their key players logged a lot of minutes. When NBA players get tired their defensive effort is the first to go so I think we’ll see this one easily go over the total tonight. The Jazz have now gone over in 5 of their last six, having shot over 50% and scoring more than 100 points in their last three games. Last night they played in Orlando and all five starters logged over 30 minutes. Charlotte last night got the opportunity to get their offense fine tuned against the Sixers and scored 109 points. Walker played 38 minutes and Jefferson 36 while Kidd-Gilchrist and Henderson both played over 30. The Bobcats have now gone over the total in 4 of their last 5, 6 of their last 8, and 11 of their last 14. I think you’ll see them get past this total once again here tonight. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 32-11 over the last 5 seasons in games played on Saturday with a total of 190 to 199.5 with a road team off an upset win as an underdog. That's a 74% system in favor of this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER! |
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12-15-14 | Orlando Magic +7 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 82-95 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Magic + The Raptors continue to be overvalued after their strong start to the season, which has them sitting with the best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-6. The key here is that after starting 13-2, Toronto has gone just 5-4 over their last 9 games. To no surprise this stretch has come following the injury to All-Star DeMar DeRozan. With DeRozan still sidelined I look for Orlando to cover here and potentially win this game outright. Keep in mind that the Magic nearly upset the Raptors in Toronto earlier this season, losing 100-104 after leading by as many as 11 in the 4th quarter. Orlando has quietly been one of the better teams to back this season, as they are 16-10 ATS, including a 12-5 ATS record on the road and 7-1 ATS record over their last 8. The big key here is that we are catching the Raptors in a bad spot. Toronto will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in last 4 days overall. Adding to that is the fact that they needed overtime to beat the Knicks yesterday. Look for Orlando to be the more aggressive team in this one as they come in off a full days rest. There's also a big time system in play on the Magic based off their win at home against the Hawks last time out. Road teams off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog that has won 25% to 4% of their games on the season are 22-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 88% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando! |
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12-14-14 | San Antonio Spurs -4.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 99-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs - The Spurs are showing tremendous value here as a small road favorite against the Nuggets. Not only is San Antonio going to be extremely motivated after Friday's overtime loss at home to the lowly Lakers, but they catch the Nuggets in a tough spot. Denver just played last night in Houston and will be in the 2nd game of back-to-back set. San Antonio has won 3 straight in the series and in their last visit to Denver they rolled the Nuggets 133-102. Going back since 1996 the Spurs are 25-11 ATS versus Denver. The Nuggets failed to cover against the Rockets, losing 96-108 as a 7-point underdog and are now just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Western Conference. Denver is also 0-7 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Antonio on the other hand is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss and 16-5 ATS over the last 3 seasons off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 81% (38-9) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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12-12-14 | Charlotte Hornets +10 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Pre-New Years Non-Conference Game of the Year on Hornets + Charlotte is showing big time value here as a double-digit road dog against the Grizzlies. This is largely due to the Hornets coming in just 1-8 on the road, while Memphis is a dominant 10-1 at home. While I'm not expecting Charlotte to come away with a win, I look for them to have no problem covering this spread. Keep in mind that these two teams have already faced off once this season. The Grizzlies were fortunate to come away with a 71-69 victory at Charlotte, as they shot just 36.2% from the field. That close defeat is going to have the Hornets believing they can win this game. You also have to like the fact that Charlotte comes in off back-to-back wins over New York and Boston. This team is a lot better than their record would indicate and are finally starting to get healthy. The other key here is that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace, which should lead to a low-scoring game. I also like how Charlotte matches up with the Grizzlies and could actually see them having the edge here in bench production. That makes the 10-points we are getting that much more valuable, as it's going to be extremely difficult for Memphis to pull away. Adding to all of this is a strong system supporting a fade of the Grizzlies. Favorites of 10 or more points that have won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and are playing 6 or less games in 14 days are just 20-47 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte! |