Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 207.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 60 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on 76ers/Raptors over 207½ -109 I know that the defensive effort will be there for both teams in Game 7, but I just can't pass up on the value here with the OVER at this price. While both teams have flashed great defense in the postseason, especially the Raptors, I just think there's too much offensive fire-power on the floor for these two to not reach at least 210 points. Each of the last 2 games have went OVER the total and both of those were blowouts. I think this one is going to be a lot closer and even more high-scoring than the last two. OVER is 17-6 in the 76ers last 23 road games with a total set between 200 and 209.5. Over is also 34-19 in the Raptors last 53 when revenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. Take the OVER! |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -6 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs - Warriors/Rockets Game 6 VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -6 -110 I'll back Houston in a must-win at home against the Warriors in Game 6. With Golden State up 3-2 in the series, it's win or season over for the Rockets. In a change of events from last year, the Warriors will be the ones trying to close out a series without one of their best players. Last year the Rockets had a 3-2 series lead before losing Chris Paul to an injury. Warriors won Game 6 at home 115-86 and followed that up with a win at Houston in Game 7. Rockets will look to take a similar path, as Golden State will be without Kevin Durant. I get the Warriors still have Curry, Thompson and Green, but Houston now without a doubt has the best player on the floor in Harden and in my opinion are the better defensive team. I think the Rockets roll here. Take Houston! |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on 76ers +2 -110 Analysis will be posted shortly |
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05-04-19 | Warriors +4 v. Rockets | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Wiseguy Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors + A lot of people will be quick to lay the short number with Houston at home in Game 3, as everyone sees this as a must-win for the Rockets, who are down 0-2 in the series. No denying how big a game this is for Houston, but I believe the Warriors will also be out to send a message. Last thing Golden State wants to do is give Houston life and I think they come out extremely motivated to go up 3-0. While the Rockets more than held their own on the road in Games 1 & 2, they continued to struggle from the field. Houston hasn't eclipsed 110 points in 5 straight and have shut under 45% from the field in 4 of their last 5. Warriors are 15-5 ATS last 2 seasons in the 2nd half of the year vs a team with a winning record and have covered 7 of their last 8 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Rockets are also just 2-6 ATS last 8 when playing on 3 days of rest. Take Golden State! |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 220 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks UNDER No need to overthink this one. Big time value here with the UNDER at this number. While Game 2 went OVER the mark, it do so just barely and was a bit of a fluke given how poorly both teams shot overall. Despite scoring 123 points, the Bucks only shot 43.8% from the field. Boston was even worse at 39.5%. The only reason the game went over is the Bucks made 20 3-pointers and the two combined to go 49 for 58 (84%) from the free throw line. These two only combined for 202 points in Game 1 and I still think we have yet to see a true defensive game between these two. I think the Celtics defense is really going to benefit from playing at home, and Milwaukee is going to be extremely motivated to take back homecourt in the series. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to break 100 points. Take the UNDER! |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 215 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors UNDER I just don't know how you don't play the UNDER at this number given what we have seen in the first two games of the series. Game 1 had a total of 223 and it ended up with a combined score of 203. They lowered the total down to 219.5 for Game and it still wasn't close. This time they only managed 183 points. I don't see any reason to expect anything but another low-scoring game. Toronto has yet to allow an opponent to shoot better than 42% from the field in any game this postsesaon. They have held the 76ers under 40% in both games. They have also not allowed more than 96 points in any game since Game 1 of the first round against Orlando. You also have to factor in that Embiid is not 100% and when he's not right the 76ers offense can really struggle to score in the halfcourt. I think Philly understands that for them to win this series they have to play with same defensive intensity that they brought to the table in Game 2. Take the UNDER! |
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04-28-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 112-90 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Semifinals GAME OF THE YEAR on Bucks - A lot of people are going to be quick to take the points with Boston, especially after watching the Celtics sweep the Pacers in the first round. I just think that's a huge mistake, as I not only think the Bucks cover the big number, but win here in a blowout. Milwaukee is 35-8 at home this season and in their two home games against Detroit in the first round, they won 121-86 in Game 1 and 120-99 in Game 2. A lot of people overlook just how good this Bucks team is defensively. Pistons shot a miserable 38.8% from the field against the Bucks in the first round. Boston won with their defense in their series with the Pacers, but stopping Milwaukee's offense will prove to be a much harder task. Bucks are 44-29 ATS as a favorite this season, which includes a 23-12 ATS mark when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors - Love the value here with Toronto at home, as this just has the feeling of a series where the home team is going to have a massive edge throughout. While both of these teams started out the first round with a Game 1 loss at home only to win 4 straight, I came away a lot more impressed with Toronto than I was with Philadelphia. The fact that Embiid is sitting out playoff games is a bad bad sign for the 76ers. Hard to believe he's not playing through some pain. He's the guy that really makes Philly so dangerous and I just don't trust them on the road without him at 100%. Two other key things in this matchup that I believe favor the Raptors is their depth and their defense. I think they have a massive edge in both areas of the game. Take Toronto! |
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04-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH on Clippers UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 5 between the Warriors and Clippers. I'm not saying there won't be a lot of offense, I just feel like the number here is way too high with Los Angeles fighting off elimination and the Warriors surely motivated to end this series at home and get ready for their big showdown with Houston in the next round. We saw a much more defensive-minded contest in Game 4, as the two only combined for 218 points with a total at 236. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this thing stayed under 220 again. UNDER is 13-1 in the Clippers last 14 when revenging a home loss and 15-4 in their 19 road games this season against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Warriors last 13 home games and 17-5 in their last 22 when playing on 1 day of rest. Take the UNDER! |
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04-23-19 | Magic v. Raptors -11.5 | Top | 96-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors - I fully expect the Raptors to make easy work of the Magic and cover the big spread in Game 5 at home. It's been all Toronto since Orlando's upset win on the road in Game 1. Raptors responded from that loss with a resounding 111-82 home win in Game 2 and are coming off a 107-85 victory in Game 4 at Orlando. The Magic know they are done for and the Raptors should be plenty motivated to put an end to this series on their home floor. Factor in the massive talent gap between the two teams and it should all add up to a blowout victory. Toronto is now 9-1 ATS in their last 10 at home in the month of April and a perfect 9-0 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons when coming off a game where they held their opponent to 90 or fewer points. Take Toronto! |
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04-21-19 | Blazers +6 v. Thunder | Top | 111-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Blazers A lot of people came into this series expecting the Thunder to advance without much problem. Portland had just recently lost Nurkic to a season-ending injury and McCollum was working his way back to full strength after a long absence. Blazers proved those doubters wrong by going up 2-0. Oklahoma City did manage to win Game 3 at home, but it took a huge game from Westbrook. I don't know that they can't count on that kind of performance again here, as they need him to be special to not only win, but cover this spread. Also, the Thunder shot 52% (15-29) on 3-pointers in Game 3 and still only won by 12. Blazers are 15-4 ATS last 2 seasons when revenging a loss of 10 or more points, which includes a 11-1 ATS mark when that previous loss came on the road. Take Portland! |
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04-19-19 | Raptors -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors - Easy play here on Toronto at this price. I think a lot of the value here stems from Orlando's upset win of the Raptors in Game 1. I just think that result was more of the Raptors not giving the Magic their full attention, as they are without a doubt the better team and they know it. That loss got Toronto locked back in and they came out and absolutely dominated the Magic in Game 2. Sure the Magic are going to be fired up playing a home playoff game, but it's not going to be enough for them to pull off the upset. Much like we saw last night with Brooklyn, who also won Game 1 and was getting a ton of love going into Game 3. I would be shocked if this is close at all. Take Toronto! |
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04-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237 | Top | 132-105 | Push | 0 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Warriors UNDER I think we are getting some big time value here with the UNDER after these two combined for 266. A lot of that had to do with the Warriors taking their foot off the gas after building up a 31-point lead. They let the Clippers score 40+ points in both the 3rd and 4th quarter. Expect more of what we saw in Game 1, when the two combined for just 125. That's an embarrassing loss for the defending champs and I'm confident they come out 100% locked in for Game 3, especially with them feeling the need to step up after the injury to DeMarcus Cousins. Not having Cousins on the floor definitely hurts the Warriors offense, but I also think it helps them defensively. UNDER is 12-2 in the Warriors last 14 when revenging a loss as a home favorite of 10 or more and 13-3 in Clipper home games during the 2nd half of the season, when facing a team that's outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game. Take the UNDER! |
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04-16-19 | Thunder +2 v. Blazers | Top | 94-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder + I was on the wrong end of Game 1 with OKC, but that's not going to keep me from going big on the Thunder in Game 2. Portland got big games from all of their top guys in Lillard (30), McCullom (24) and Kanter (20). While those 3 combined for 74 points, the rest of the team managed just 30. I just don't think Portland has the fire-power to win this series and let's not forget the Thunder swept the regular-season series 4-0. Both Westbrook and George shot the ball poorly in Game 1 (4 for 19 on 3-pointers) and yet Oklahoma City had a chance to win the game. Keep in mind they also started the game down 14 in the 1st quarter. I expect a much stronger start for the Thunder and really expect them to win this one rather comfortably. Take Oklahoma City! |
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04-10-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -6 | Top | 137-143 | Push | 0 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers - I love this spot and price with the Clippers at home against the Jazz. As of right now LAC is the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference and would have to take on the Warriors in the first round. However, with a win here and a loss by either the Spurs or Thunder, the Clippers would move up to the No. 7 seed and play the Nuggets. The even bigger key here is that while this games means a lot to Los Angeles, it means next to nothing for the Jazz. Utah is locked into the No. 5 spot and had their big tune-up game for the playoffs last night at home against the Nuggets, which they won 118-108. I would expect the Jazz to rest some guys and any key guys that do play, likely won't be on the floor for long. This has all the makings of a Clippers blowout victory. LAC is 17-8 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 13-5 ATS last 18 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 14-4 ATS last 18 when coming off a road loss. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-09-19 | Rockets -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets - I love the value here with Houston laying a small number on the road against the Thunder. The Rockets were just hoping to play well enough to get past the Blazers for the No. 3 spot in the Western Conference. They can officially lock up the No. 3 spot tonight with a win and in the process might pass the slumping Nuggets for the No. 2 spot, as Denver is a dog at Utah. Thunder have turned it around with 3 straight wins, but overall have not been playing well. They are just 9-13 over their last 22 games. Houston is simply the better team and with how much this game means to the Rockets, I just don't see them losing. OKC is 3-13 ATS last 16 vs a team from the Western Conference, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and 0-4 ATS last 4 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Houston! |
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04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Blazers - Easy play here on the Blazers as a small home favorite against the Nuggets. Denver is pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed in the west and are expected to give a number of guys the day off on Sunday to make sure they are fresh for the playoffs. Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic are all out for this one. While Denver is playing without 3 of their better players, Portland is welcoming back one of theirs, as C.J. McCollum is expected to return from injury. I'm confident the Blazers not only cover this spread, but do so in convincing fashion. Take Portland! |
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04-01-19 | Pistons v. Pacers UNDER 205.5 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pistons UNDER There's a lot to like here with the UNDER in Monday's division clash between the Pistons and Pacers. The obvious is that being division rivals these two teams are very familiar with one another. They have already faced each other twice this season. Both will be without their best player, as the Pacers continue to go to work without Victor Oladipo, while the Pistons will be without the services of Blake Griffin. Detroit just played a game without Griffin against the Blazers and the two combined for just 189 points. Both of these teams are strong defensively and both still have plenty to play for. Indiana is tied for 4th/5th with Boston and getting home court in that series would be huge for them. As for the Pistons, they are sitting 6th in the east, but just 1.5-games ahead of 9th place Orlando. UNDER is 20-8-1 in the Pistons last 29 road games vs a team that has won more than 60% of their home games, 35-16 in the Pacers last 51 at home and 28-11 in last 39 vs a team with a winning record. Take UNDER! |
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03-25-19 | 76ers v. Magic UNDER 219 | Top | 98-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sixers/Magic UNDER Love the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Magic. Orlando comes in off a high-scoring game against the Grizzlies, but they didn't bring the defensive intensity early. When it mattered the most they held Memphis to 15 points in the 4th quarter. Prior to that the Magic had held 3 straight teams under 100 points. Not a big surprise, as Orlando has been the best defensive teams since the All-Star break, at least in terms of points allowed (103.8 ppg). A big reason for that is they have posted the best 3-point percentage defense during this run. No question we are going to get a max effort defensively from Orlando against a top-tier team like the 76ers. UNDER is 18-8 in Magic's last 26 home games vs a team with a winning road record and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 vs another team from the east. UNDER is also 6-2 in the 76ers last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! |
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03-11-19 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 227 | Top | 98-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Thunder UNDER I'm confident that Utah and OKC will fly UNDER the mark set by the books. These are two of the better teams in the Western Conference and that should bring out the best in both sides. Both teams also are going to be hungry for a win. The Thunder have lost 6 of 8, while Utah comes in having lost 2 of 3, getting upset as a favorite in both defeats. I get the last time these two teams played they combined for a ridiculous 295 points, but that was a double-overtime game and it was also the first contest back from the All-Star break. UNDER is still 17-8 in the last 25 meetings overall and a dominant 10-2 in their last 12 meetings played in Utah. UNDER is also 11-3 in the Thunder's last 14 road games when they are listed as an underdog on the spread and 12-2 in their last 14 after playing a game where they attempted 100 or more shots. Take the UNDER! |
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03-08-19 | Raptors -6.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Raptors - This is the perfect spot to jump on Toronto, as we know the Raptors are going to be highly motivated coming off back-to-back losses. Both of those games could have gone the other way and it was more of Toronto simply not shooting well than anything. Raptors shot just 39% at Detroit and then 42% at home against the Rockets. I don't see those struggles continuing against the Pelicans. New Orleans has allowed 111 or more points in 10 straight games. They just let the Jazz shoot 52% on their home floor last time out. Opposing teams are shooting 47% from the field against them in their home games this season. New Orleans is also going to be down two of their better players, as both E'Twaun Moore and Jrue Holiday are both out. They could also be without Jahlil Okafor, who is questionable. Pelicans have also routinely not showed up with the big crowds on Friday nights, going just 1-10 ATS last 11 games played on Friday. Take Toronto! |
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03-03-19 | Hawks v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 123-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bulls - Chicago defeated the Hawks 168-161 in 4OT on Friday at Atlanta and I see no reason why they won't make easy work of them on their home floor this afternoon. Bulls have been playing some really good basketball of late. Chicago is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games. They have covered each of their last 4 games against a team with a losing record and are 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with the Hawks. Atlanta is a mere 3-12 ATS over the last 2 seasons in the month of March and are just 1-5 ATS last 6 vs an opponent from the Eastern Conference and 1-4 ATS last 5 after giving up 125 or more points in their previous game. Take Chicago! |
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03-01-19 | Clippers v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Pacific Div GAME OF THE MONTH on Kings - Love the value here with Sacramento at basically a pick'em at home against the Clippers. The Kings have been one of the best bets in the NBA for a while now. Sacramento is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games and the books are simply slow to adjust because of how bad this team has been in previous years. I believe a big reason the Kings are showing such great value here is because they come in having lost 4 of their last 5. The thing is, 3 of the 4 losses came on the road against the likes of the Nuggets, Warriors and Timberwolves. The other was a 1-point loss at home to the Bucks. Kings have been really good at home and it's not just of late. Sacramento is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games. They are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after losing 3 of their last 4. They also have gone a dominant 8-1 ATS last 9 as a home favorite. Take Sacramento! |
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02-25-19 | Bucks v. Bulls +11 | Top | 117-106 | Push | 0 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Div GAME OF THE MONTH on Bulls + Easy play here on the Bulls at home against the Bucks. Chicago comes in playing some of their best basketball of the season, as they have won 3 straight. The most recent being a 126-116 win at home over the Celtics as a 10-point underdog. The game before that they won at Orlando as a 8-point dog. Not only are the Bulls playing well, but the Bucks will be playing this one without Giannis Antetokounmpo, as well as George Hill. Last time Antetokounmpo sat out Milwaukee got managed just 83 points on 33% shooting in a 20-point home loss to the Magic. While Jimmy and his long-term clients got the Bulls as a double-digit dog, this play is still recommended at the current line. Take Chicago! |
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02-22-19 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 147-148 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz + I love the value here with Utah, as I fully expect the Jazz to go into OKC and upset the Thunder. I just think we are going to see Utah really come out in this game with a chip on their shoulder. These two have already played twice this season and the Thunder have won both meetings, so revenge is definitely in play for the Jazz. I'm not saying OKC isn't going to show up, but there's no doubt this one doesn't mean as much to them. Keep in mind we saw this team come out extremely flat in their final game before the break, losing by 9 and giving up 131 points at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite. Fading OKC in division games has been a wise move, as the Thunder are just 10-21 (32%) ATS over the last 2 seasons. Jazz are also a dominant 15-5 ATS on the road in the 2nd half of the season when facing a team that is outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg and 13-2 ATS on the road in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110+ points/game. Take Utah! |
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02-11-19 | Clippers v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 120-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves - I really like this spot for Minnesota as a small home favorite. This has to feel like a must-win for the Timberwolves, who have lost 4 straight and are now 5-games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. The team sitting in 8th is the Clippers, which should only add that much more motivation here. As for LAC, they made it clear they are more focused on the future than the present with the deals they made at the trade deadline. I get they come in off a 123-112 upset win at Boston as a 11.5-point dog, but they trailed by 28 (trailed 43-20 after 1st quarter) and benefited from the Celtics losing All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving to injury in the 2nd quarter. Each of their last 3 wins have come with them trailing by at least 20. They followed up each of the last two rallies with losses by 19 or more. Part of Minnesota's struggles is they have had their top 3 point guards out of the lineup. Jeff Teague is back and should make a bigger contribution in his second game back and there's a chance Derrick Rose returns after practicing on Sunday. Take Minnesota! |
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02-08-19 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 223.5 | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/Nets OVER The Bulls/Nets should have zero problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. The average score in Chicago's last 5 games is 225.2 and for Brooklyn the average score in their last 5 games is 226.6. Bulls defense has been non-existent in their last 2, giving up 125 to both the Pelicans and Hornets. Chicago's offense on the other hand is shooting lights out, having hit 50% from the field in each of their last 4. Brooklyn just gave up 130 to the Nuggets in a game that saw 265 total points scored, as both teams shot over 50% from the field. OVER is 32-18 in the Bulls last 50 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points (last 3 seasons). OVER is also 6-1 lat 7 for Chicago on the road against a team with a winning home record. Adding even more value here is a big time system that has cashed 76% over the last 5 seasons. The OVER is 44-14 in the month of February when you have a game with a 1st half total greater than 100 and a team (Nets) that went over the total by more than 30 points in their last game. Take the OVER! |
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02-04-19 | Nuggets v. Pistons +4.5 | Top | 103-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Pistons + Last time out the Pistons blew a 25-point lead in a 10 point home loss to the Clippers. Blake Griffin called it the worst loss of the year. My money is on Detroit using that defeat as motivation against a Denver team that is slowly getting a bigger and bigger target on their back. Nuggets have 6 straight and are tied with Golden State for the best record in the West. The thing is they have been playing short-handed. Garry Harris is out with a groin injury and Jamal Murray has missed the last 5 games with a bad ankle. I just think Denver has to be running on fumes right now and it would be really easy for them to look past a Pistons team that has won a mere 9-games since upsetting the Warriors at home back on Dec. 1st. Nuggets are also not nearly the same team on the road, where they have failed to cover 6 of their last 8 against teams with a winning home record. Denver is also a mere 15-28 last 43 road games off a win. Take Detroit! |
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01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -120 | Top | 129-109 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Clippers - I absolutely love this spot and price on the Clippers at home against the Jazz. I think this is the ideal spot to jump on Los Angeles and the perfect time to fade Utah. We know we are getting a big effort here from the Clippers, as they have to be looking at this game as a must win. After this they host the Warriors and then play 4 straight on the road. They come in having lost 3 straight and things can spiral out of control quickly if you aren't careful, especially in the Western Conference. Utah has won a season-high 4 straight games, but haven't exactly looked great doing so and the 4 wins all came at home against the likes of the Magic, Lakers, Bulls and Pistons. Jazz are still without their top 3 point guards, which has forced Donovan Mitchell to play out of position. It's resulted in some really bad offense and a bunch of turnovers here of late. Clippers are 17-7 ATS last 24 as a favorite. Jazz are 15-28 Last 43 as a road dog of 6 or less. Utah is also 2-6 ATS last 8 off a win and 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Los Angeles! |
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01-11-19 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 218 | Top | 113-141 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cavs/Rockets OVER The books have completely missed the mark here with the total. Houston and Cleveland should have no problem eclipsing 220 points and there's a potential for them to fly by the number. Houston can light up the scoreboard, especially when James Harden has it going like he does now. Last 3 games the Cavs have allowed 140 at New Orleans, 123 to the Pacers and 133 to the Pelicans at home. Each of their last 7 opponents have eclipsed 110 points. I think Houston could easily top 130 and we should see the Cavs score at least 100. Rockets haven't allowed fewer than 100 since the middle of December and are just not the same defensive team without Chris Paul in the lineup. OVER is 8-2 in the Rockets last 10 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and 5-1 in their last 6 at home vs a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! |
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12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 223.5 | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sixers/Celtics UNDER I love the UNDER here in this division clash between the 76ers and Celtics. There's a ton of talent on both teams and these are two teams that are believed to have a legit shot at winning the Eastern Conference. I think both are going to be out to make a statement here and we are going to get max effort from both sides on the defensive side of the ball. These two played back in October and the Celtics won 105-87 for a combined total of just 193 points. That game had a total of 211.5. I get the 76ers have added Jimmy Butler since that game, but he's an elite defender and we got plenty of wiggle room here with this total north of 220. The average score in the 76ers last 17 division road games is 214.5. The average score in the Celtics last 15 division home games is 207.1. Take the UNDER! |
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12-19-18 | Warriors v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz + The books are absolutely begging the public to take the Warriors here as a small road favorite and they are doing exactly that (close to 70% action on Golden State). They did the same thing when these two met back in October and the Jazz covered in a painful 124-123 loss as 2.5-point dog. There's no doubt that Utah has been itching for this rematch after nearly knocking off the defending champs. We are going to get their best effort here. It's hard for Golden State to get up for regular-season games and I have to think they are a bit annoyed that they have this 1-game road trip to Utah before returning home for Christmas (next road game is 12/29). Not to mention the Warriors aren't just struggling to cover on the road, they are a mere 8-7 straight up away from Oracle Arena. Golden State is also just 2-8 ATS last 10 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take Utah! |
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12-18-18 | Wizards v. Hawks +4.5 | Top | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast PLAY OF THE MONTH on Hawks + This is a great spot to jump on Atlanta as a home dog against the Wizards. Washington has been one of the most overvalued teams this season, especially on the road. The Wizards are 4-12 SU and 4-12 ATS in their 16 road games. I get the Hawks aren't a great team, but no way should Washington be a road favorite. The Wizards come in off what looks like an impressive 128-110 win over the Lakers, but they got a LA team that didn't show up to play on the second night of a back-to-back road set. Prior to that win they had lost 4 straight, including a 15-point loss on the road to the Cavs. Wizards are 0-9 ATS last 9 road games after allowing 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after a game with a combined score of 235 or more. Take Atlanta! |
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12-10-18 | Magic +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 76-101 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Magic + I really like this spot for Orlando to cover the spread and possible win the game outright at Dallas on Monday. This is a big letdown spot for the Mavs, who are coming off a thrilling 107-104 win at home over the Rockets. As for the Magic, we can bank on a big effort here after back-to-back home losses to the Nuggets and Pacers. Orland has been a solid road team. They are 6-6 away from home and most importantly, 9-2 ATS on the highway. Magic have also covered 7 straight away from home when facing a team that is allowing 106+ points/game. Another thing is Orlando is fresh, as they have played just once in the last 4 days. Playing into that is a great system in favor of a Magic cover. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points who are playing just their 4th or less game in the last 10 days are 41-15 (73%) ATS in the month of December over the last 5 seasons. Take Orlando! |
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11-28-18 | Bulls v. Bucks -13.5 | Top | 113-116 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks - I got no problem here laying the big number with Milwaukee at home against the Bulls. The Bucks come into this one off a upset loss at Charlotte as a 4.5-point favorite. Milwaukee hasn't lost back-to-back games all season and are 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. The Bulls are really struggling right now. Chicago has lost 3 straight and are a mere 3-12 in their last 15. Until they get some of their key guys back from injury, they are going to struggle to be competitive, especially against the elite teams. These two teams played earlier this month and the Bucks toyed with Chicago in a 123-104 win, as they led 63-45 at the half. Big system in play as well. Favorites who have won between 60% to 75% of their games and are off a game where they failed to cover are a dominant 39-15 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a horrible team that's won 25% or less of their games. Take Milwaukee! |
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11-26-18 | Magic v. Warriors UNDER 215 | Top | 110-116 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Warriors UNDER Books have completely missed the mark here. The Warriors will be without both Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Sure they still have KD and Klay Thompson, but it's just not the same without those two on the court. Not to mention we know the Magic are going to give max effort here on the defensive side of the ball, as everyone brings it when they get a shot at Golden State and they have to be thinking about potentially stealing a win with the Warriors short-handed. I think Golden State matches that defensive intensity as they have really played well on that side of the ball the last two games and this Orlando offense is limited and haven't shot it great of late. Look for a slower than normal pace and for this to fly under the mark set by the books. UNDER is 26-10-1 in Warriors last 37 off a game they didn't cover the spread and 4-1 in Magic's last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take UNDER! |
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11-21-18 | Blazers v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
5* NBA Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks - The Bucks should have no problem here winning and covering the number. Milwaukee's got away with some sloppy starts here of late, but I don't think they will be sleep-walking through the start of this one. That's because the Bucks will be out for revenge from an ugly 15-point loss at Portland earlier this month. Milwaukee is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home, so the books have clearly not given this team enough respect when they take the floor at the Fiserv Forum. Portland is a good team and in normal circumstances might put up a decent fight, but they have to be running on fumes. Blazers are playing their 5th straight game on the road. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 nights and they just played last night in New York. Not to mention their next game is against the Warriors on Friday, so hard to not look ahead to that one just a little bit. Take Milwaukee! |
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11-19-18 | Suns +12.5 v. 76ers | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Suns + I really like the value here with Phoenix as a double-digit dog against the 76ers. I just think Philadelphia is bit overvalued right now with the recent trade of Jimmy Butler and them having won and covered their last two. The thing is, they could very easily be 0-3 with Butler. They lost his debut at Orlando, beat Utah at home by just 6 points and the Jazz shot 4 of 22 (18.2%) from deep and 56.8% from the free throw line. Then last time out they overcame a 60-point night from Kemba Walker in a 122-119 overtime win at Charlotte. I think that game against the Hornets really took a lot out of this team (all 5 starters played 30+ mins) and this is not as deep a team after the trade. With how bad the Suns have been, I just feel this is one of those games that the 76ers go through the motions and have to scratch out a win late. Take Phoenix! |
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11-09-18 | Celtics v. Jazz -3 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jazz - This is an easy play on Utah as a small home favorite against the Celtics. The Jazz really need to get on track after losing 4 of their last 5. They were able to stop the bleeding and their 4-game skid with a 15 point win over the Mavs last time out. I expect that strong play to carry over to this one. We know we are going to get a big effort here from Utah, as this will be the first time that long-term Jazz star Gordon Hayward returns to Utah in an opposing team's uniform. On top of that, the Jazz are catching Boston at the perfect time. The Celtics are in the midst of a 5-game road trip and playing on zero rest after rallying in the 2nd half to win in OT at Phoenix last night. Boston looked like they were already running on fumes, as they scored just 35 in the 1st half against the Suns. They simply aren't going to have the energy/effort to keep this game competitive. We also now know Kyrie Irving won't play and I could see some other guys minutes restricted, as this game just doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things for the Celtics. Take Utah! |
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11-08-18 | Bucks v. Warriors UNDER 238.5 | Top | 134-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA TNT Thursday GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Warriors UNDER This is going to be a heavily bet game. Not just because we have a potential NBA Finals preview with the Warriors and Bucks, but this is also the last NBA game on the board and it's nationally televised on TNT. Books know the public is going to be on the OVER in this one, as they love backing the OVER with Golden State and the Bucks come in averaging 120 ppg. I just think it's resulted in ton of value here on the UNDER. People focus so much on the offense side of the ball with these two teams, they don't give their defenses enough respect. Bucks are No. 2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the Warriors are 13th. Regardless of where Golden State is ranked, I think we all know that they are elite defensively when they want to be. Most nights they don't need to be. I think in this spot against the "Greek Freak" they will be ready to go. UNDER is 7-1 in Golden State's last 8 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-05-18 | Rockets v. Pacers OVER 212 | Top | 98-94 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER The under has cashed in each of the last 4 games for the Pacers and Houston is coming off a game against the Bulls where they won by a final score of 96-88. I think all of this has created some great value on the OVER in this one. Both meetings between these two teams last year saw at least 213 points. Indiana is averaging 109.5 ppg at home and the Rockets are putting up 112.7. For whatever reason the Rockets have been ice-cold shooting at home, yet are hitting 46.4% from the field on the road and averaging 15 made 3-pointers on 37.3% shooting from deep. With a big game against OKC (Melo was booted and signed with Houston) on deck for the Rockets and Indiana off the big win over Boston and another big game on deck against the 76ers, I just don't think we see an all out effort defensively from either side here. That should have this thing finishing a lot closer to 220-225. Take the OVER! |
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11-04-18 | Knicks v. Wizards -6.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Wizards - Last time out the Wizards were booed off their own court in a 134-111 loss at home to the Thunder. Washington is now 1-7 thru their first 8 games and have lost 5 straight. It's not acceptable to go 1-7, but they have played 5 of their first 8 games not the road and their 3 at home were against likely playoff teams in the Heat, Raptors and Thunder. They also have 3 losses by 4-points or less. Simply put, it's not as bad as people are making it. I'm confident this team will get it figured out and I'm willing to bet it happens at home today against the Knicks. New York has played well at times and are off a nice 118-106 win at Dallas, but the Knicks aren't a playoff team. They are 3-6 on the season and I just don't see them being able to match the intensity of a desperate Wizards team that I believe will treat this like a must-win. Take Washington! |
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11-01-18 | Clippers v. 76ers OVER 229 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Sixers OVER Get ready for some offensive fire-works in tonight's NBA showdown between the Clippers and 76ers. Neither of these teams brought much energy on the defensive side in their last game on Tuesday and with just 1-day off I expect more of the same. Los Angeles allowed 128 points and 51.1% shooting in 18-point loss at OKC, which saw a combined score of 238. Philadelphia gave up 129 and 51.1% shooting in a 17-point loss at Toronto, which saw 241 combined points. 76ers come into this one averaging 115.2 ppg at home and the Clippers are averaging 117.3 ppg on the road. OVER is 13-4 in the Clippers last 17 after playing in a game with a combined score of 235 or more, 8-3-1 in their last 12 off a SU loss and 5-2 in Philadelphia's last 7 overall. Take the OVER! |
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10-31-18 | Jazz v. Wolves UNDER 223 | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz UNDER The books have completely missed the mark with this total. No way the Jazz and Timberwolves combine for 224 or more points. Minnesota is coming off a high-scoring game against LA, which was played at a frantic pace. While the Timberwolves put up 124, they only shot 42.9% from the field. That's 4 straight games where Minnesota has shot 43% or worse. Utah's defense gave up a couple of big numbers right out of the gate, but in their last 4 games they are holding their opponents to just 99.0 ppg. We saw the Timberwolves only score 95 in their previous home game against the Bucks. Look for the Jazz to really rely on that defense in this one, as they aren't going to want to play up-tempo here. This will be Utah's 4 straight on the road and 3rd game in the last 5 nights. Note that the UNDER is a solid 76-40 (66%) since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more where a team is playing their 4th straight on the road and playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER! |
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10-29-18 | Kings v. Heat -8 | Top | 123-113 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Heat - Great spot here to fade the Kings on the road. Sacramento is off back-to-back upset wins at home, as they defeated Memphis 97-92 as a 3-point dog and the Wizards 116-112 as a 5-point dog. I think it has the Kings getting a little too much respect here against a Heat team that is off back-to-back impressive wins at home. Miami crushed the Knicks at home 110-87 and then followed that up with a 120-111 win over Portland. Long way for Sacramento to travel to open up their road trip and I look for them to come out a bit flat. That should be more than enough for the Heat to win here by double-digits. Kings are just 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. Sacramento has also struggled on the boards and the Heat are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 vs a team that is getting out-rebounded by 3+ boards per game. Take Miami! |
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10-27-18 | Magic v. Bucks -8.5 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks - Milwaukee has started out the 2018-19 season 5-0 and I look for them to stay undefeated with a comfortable win at home against the Magic. Each of the last 4 wins for the Bucks have come by at least 9 points, including a 30-point blowout win at Minnesota last night. I just don't think Orlando has the talent to keep this one close. Not a big deal here that Milwaukee is playing on no rest with how easy the win was last night against the Timberwolves. I would be more concerned about the Magic showing up, as they hit the road for the 3rd time in the last week and are just 1-day of rest. Orlando is a mere 4-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons when playing a top tier offensive team like Milwaukee, who are averaging 110 or more points/game. Magic are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 when playing on 1 day of rest, while the Bucks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 25 on 0 days of rest. Take Milwaukee! |
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10-20-18 | Hornets +5 v. Heat | Top | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Hornets + I really like what I have seen from Charlotte to start this new season. The Hornets lost a heartbreaker at home to the Bucks 113-112 on Wednesday, but followed that up with a 120-88 blowout win at Orlando. Charlotte is really pushing the pace this year and are shooting lights out from deep, as they come in averaging 16 made 3-pointers and are shooting 43.4% from long distance. Miami lost to the Magic on the road in their opener Wednesday and squeaked out a win at Washington on Thursday. The Heat are playing short-handed to start the new season, as Wayne Ellington, Justise Winslow, James Johnson and Dion Waiters are all out with injuries. I just don't think Miami will have enough gas in the tank to keep up with Charlotte and all we need is for the Hornets to lose by 4 or less. Hornets are 24-8 in their last 32 road games after playing a game where they led by 15 or more points at the half. Miami has failed to cover 6 of their last 7 at home. Take Charlotte! |
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10-19-18 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 117-131 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies - Great spot to jump on the Grizzlies at home off that ugly loss in their season opener on the road to the Pacers. Indiana is one of the top teams in the east and Memphis simply didn't match their intensity. They also shot about as bad as an NBA team can, going just 25 of 84 (29.8%) from the field. I expect the shots to fall at home against a Hawks team that just doesn't have a lot of talent and will certainly struggle on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta gave up 126 points to the Knicks, who are without their best player in Porzingis. This is a much-improved Memphis team, as they have a healthy Mike Conley at the points and one of the top big men in the game in Marc Gasol. The Hawks are going to be one of the worst teams in the NBA and will simply be no match for the Grizzlies on the road. Take Memphis! |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5.5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Cavs + I love the value here with the Cavs as a decently priced home dog in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. While Cleveland's hopes of making this a series likely are long gone with them down 3-0, they aren't just going to roll over and give the title to Golden State. There's a lot of pride in not getting swept and it's not like the Cavs haven't had their chances. Cleveland could just as easily be sitting with a 2-1 lead, as they were right there in both Game 1 and Game 3. Keep in mind last year the Warriors took a 3-0 series lead and a lot of people thought the Cavs were going to get swept. Instead, Cleveland ran away with Game 4 in a 21-point blowout win. I don't know if it will be that lopsided, but I fully expect the Cavs to win this one outright. At the same time, we got some insurance if Cleveland does lose, as we can still cash if the Warriors win by 5 or less. Take Cleveland! |
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05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 207 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER on the total for Game 4 between the Celtics and Cavs. Each of the first 3 games in the series have all finished UNDER the mark set by the books and I think this has the potential to be the lowest scoring of them all. Cleveland's blowout win in Game 3 wasn't a huge shocker. Boston hasn't been great on the road this postseason and the Cavs were basically in a do-or-die situation already down 0-2 in the series. I really like the adjustments Cleveland made on the defensive side of the ball, as well as the all-out effort from James. They have no choice but to come out with that same intensity, as this one is just as important as the last. The key here is that we should get a much more focused and energized Boston team. They are going to make their adjustments and while the shots might not fall like they do at home, they can still make a game of this with their defensive effort and I expect them to do just that. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams failed to reach 95 in this one. Take the UNDER! |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the 76ers and Celtics. While the first two games of the series have went OVER, the scoring did drop off quite a bit from Game 1 to Game 2. After combining for 118 in Game 1, the two combined for just 111 in Game 2. I look for another drop in scoring here in Game 3. Boston hasn't been nearly as efficient offensively on the road. They scored just 92, 102 and 86 in their 3 games at Milwaukee in the first round. The other big key here is we are going to get everything the 76ers have on the defensive end with the series on the line down 0-2. They also aren't going to take their foot off the gas after blowing that 22 points lead in Game 2. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 points in this one. Take the UNDER! |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 218 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Raptors UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 1 between the Raptors and Cavs. I know these two teams have a lot of offensive fire-power, but this total is way too high for these two teams. Cleveland simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power it's had in the past and really have to rely on their defense to win. I also think we are seeing an inflated total here, as a lot of people think the Cavs won't show up after playing a Game 7 just 2 days ago, but I expect this team to come out ready to play. I actually think Cleveland matches up a lot better with Toronto than they did the Pacers. With that said the Raptors are a strong team and really turned up the defensive intensity over the final 3 games of their series with Washington. I expect an all-out effort defensively from Toronto in this one, as they are well aware of how critical these first two games at home are. UNDER is 22-10 in the Cavs last 32 games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and UNDER is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. Take the UNDER! |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 53 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors - I love the value here with the Warriors at this price on their home court in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Pelicans. Regardless if Steph Curry plays or not (added bonus if he does), I expect Golden State to come out looking to send a message to New Orleans that they have no business being in this series. I know the Pelicans looked great in their sweep of the Blazers, but Portland wasn't playing well down the stretch and that was a great matchup with no one on the Blazers who could contain Anthony Davis and Rondo being able to make things difficult on Lillard. While Davis will be to stop, Portland will have no answer for Durant and the depth of the Warriors. Take Golden State! |
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04-27-18 | Raptors +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 37 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMINT Top Play on Raptors + I love the value here with Toronto getting points in Game 6 at Washington. The Raptors took back control of the series with a 108-98 win in Game 5 at home and are going to do everything in their power to make sure their next home game is in round 2. This series likely would have been over if the Raptors didn't blow a 14-point 2nd half lead in Washington back in Game 4. I don't see them making that same mistake twice. Look for Toronto to take control of this game early and keep their foot on the gas. The Raptors also seem to have figured out the Wizards offense. After allowing Washington to shot 48% or better in each of the first 3 games, they held them to 46% in Game 4 on the road and 41% in Game 5. Raptors are 25-14 in their last 39 off a double-digit home win, while the Wizards are just 11-22 ATS as a home favorite this season. Take Toronto! |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 37 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Thunder - I love the value here with OKC as a short home favorite in Game 5 against the Jazz. The Thunder find themselves facing elimination down 3-1 in the series and I like their chances of getting a win and cover in this one. You have to give Utah credit for how well they have played up to this point, but it's extremely difficult closing out a team on the road in the postseason, especially for a team like the Jazz that don't have a ton of playoff experience to fall back on. One of the biggest problems for the Thunder has been the early foul trouble of Westbrook. They also aren't getting the kind of production they need out of veteran Carmelo Anthony. I look for both of these two to step up big and for the others to have a big game for OKC at home. Even with their win and cover in Game 2 on the road, Utah is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Chesepeake Energy Arena. Take Oklahoma City! |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-102 | Win | 100 | 36 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pelcians + I love the value here with the Pelicans as a decently priced dog in Game 2 of their series with the Blazers. New Orleans avoided a devastating loss in Game 1, as the held on for a 97-95 win after going into the 4th quarter with a 12-point lead. Anthony Davis led the way with 35 points and 14 rebounds, but he wasn't the only big contributor for the Pelicans. Rondo scored just 6 points, but had 17 assists and 8 rebounds. Mirotic added 16 points and 11 rebound, while Holiday dropped 21 points. New Orleans as a team assisted on 26 of their 41 made baskets. In comparison the Blazers only had 17 assists on 37 made field goals. Portland was really fortunate to even be in the game, as they shot 37.8% from the field. What kept them in it was 15 offensive rebounds. I just think that's unlikely to happen again. This is simply too many points for the Pelicans to be catching given they have the best player on the court. Take New Orleans! |
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04-15-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 203 | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks/Celtics UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's early NBA playoff action that has the Celtics hosting the Bucks. A lot of people are writing off Boston after the injury to Kyrie Irving. While that almost certainly put an end to any hopes they had of making the NBA Finals, they still have more than enough talent to win a series or two. One thing that Boston will have to do without Irving is rely even more on their defense, as they aren't going to get as many easy looks offensively. I think it's going to be difficult for both teams to score here and don't see either side getting to 100 points. That makes this a pretty easy call with the total north of 200. UNDER is 7-2-1 in the Bucks last 10 conference quarterfinal matchups and 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 when playing in the first round of the postseason. Take the UNDER! |
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04-14-18 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 209 | Top | 92-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Spurs/Warriors UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Western Conference series opener between the Spurs and Warriors. While Golden State is the heavy favorite in the series despite Steph Curry being sidelined, there's no question that they aren't the same offensive juggernaut without him. San Antonio knows they have no chance of beating the Warriors in a shootout, even without Curry, and I look for Popovich and the Spurs to try and slow down the tempo as much as possible to keep Golden State out of a rhythm. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points and this thing finished somewhere in the low 190s. Take the UNDER! |
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04-10-18 | Rockets v. Lakers +8.5 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Lakers + I love the value here with the Lakers as a big home dog against the Rockets on Tuesday. Houston has absolutely nothing to play for. They have the best record in the league locked up and have made it clear that their primary focus over the last 2 regular season games is to stay healthy. The starters will play, but their minutes will be restricted. Given the circumstances this line should be a lot closer to a pick'em. I think there's a good chance the Lakers win this game and we got plenty of insurance if they end up on the losing end. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-09-18 | Bulls +8.5 v. Nets | Top | 105-114 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Late Season PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bulls + I love the value here with Chicago as a big road dog against the Nets on Monday. I think we are seeing a huge overreaction with this line. Sure Brooklyn just won at Chicago 124-96 on Saturday. The thing is, that makes this game that less interesting for the Nets, who have zero to play for and are likely looking ahead to their finale against the Celtics. The Bulls on the other hand should be motivated here to play better than they did in the last meeting. Chicago had been playing well before laying an egg against the Nets. Chicago had won 3 of 4 and are still 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 overall. Bulls are 23-12 ATS in their last 35 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points, while Brooklyn is a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 at home in the 2nd half of the season. Take Chicago! |
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04-05-18 | Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 211 | Top | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Warriors UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Pacers hosting the Warriors. Golden State is locked into the No. 2 seed in the west, while Indiana is sitting 5th in the east, two games back of the Cavs and 76ers and 3.5 ahead of the Heat. There's just not a lot to play for here for either side, but I do think both teams are trying to stay in good form for the playoffs. Golden State's continues to play without Steph Curry and simply aren't as explosive offensively without him on on the court. Their highest point total in their last 8 games is 117 points and that was at home against the Suns. Indiana hasn't allowed more than 107 in their last 8. I think both teams are also going to limit their star players minutes, which will really make it tough for them to eclipse this number. UNDER is 20-9 in the Pacers last 29 non-conference games and 13-4 in their last 17 off a road loss. UNDER is also 21-7 in the Warriors last 28 after giving up 100+ points and 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs a good home team that's won 60% or more of their games at home. Take the UNDER! |
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03-27-18 | Pacers -4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 92-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacers - I love the value here with the Pacers here as a short road favorite against the Warriors. Golden State will be without Durant, Curry and Thompson for this game and have little to nothing to play for down the stretch. The Warriors aren't catching Houston for the No. 1 spot and are all but a lock to take home the No. 2 spot, as they need just 1 more win or 1 more Blazers loss to make it official. We saw a similar scenario play out in their last game at home against the Jazz and they were no match for Utah in a 19-point loss. I think we could easily see Indiana win here by double-digits. The Pacers clinched a playoff spot in their last game, but still have plenty to play for as they are just 1.5-games behind the Cavs for 3rd and a mere 4-games ahead of Miami for 8th in the east. Pacers are 23-11 ATS as a favorite this season and the Warriors are a mere 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. Golden State has also failed to cover each of their last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Take Indiana! |
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03-04-18 | Pacers v. Wizards UNDER 209.5 | Top | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacers UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Wizards hosting the Pacers. Just 2-games separate these two teams in the Eastern Conference playoff race and I think both sides will be highly motivated here to get a win. Indiana snapped a short 2-game skid with an impressive 103-96 win at Milwaukee in their last game and should be motivated here to finish up their road trip with a .500 record at 2-2. As for Washington, they are looking to bounce back from back-to-back home losses to the Warriors and Raptors. It's also worth noting the UNDER has been a really strong play of late in Wizards' games. In fact, the UNDER has cashed in each of Washington's last 4 games. The Pacers have also played to the UNDER in each of their last 2 games and is 9-2-1 in Indiana's last 12 road games and 5-0-1 in their last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! |
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03-02-18 | Warriors v. Hawks OVER 226 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Warriors/Hawks OVER I recommending playing the OVER in Friday's NBA action that has the Hawks hosting the Warriors. We can pretty much bank on Golden State putting up a big number here offensively. The Warriors haven't scored fewer than 105 points in 11 straight games and are averaging 119.4 ppg over their last 5. Atlanta doesn't have the talent or scheme defensively to slow them down. The key here is I don't think we are going to see Golden State bring the defensive intensity against an inferior opponent in what's the final game of a 3-game road trip and a nice 3-day break looming after this contest. I think we get a very similar type of game to the Warriors recent road game against the Knicks, where they won 125-111. OVER is 6-2-1 in the Warriors last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. It's also 13-4 in the Hawks last 17 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs a top tier team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the OVER! |
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02-24-18 | Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 208 | Top | 121-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has division rivals Boston and New York going head-to-head at Madison Square Garden. The Celtics returned from the All-Star break with a 110-98 win at Detroit. Their defense held the Pistons to just 43.5% shooting and my money is on another big effort on the defensive side of the ball tonight. New York put up 120 in a win over the Magic in their last game, but that's nothing to get excited about. This is still a very limited Knicks offense without Porzingis and last time they faced the Celtics they managed just 73 points. Adding to this is the fact that each of the last 4 meetings in the series have seen 204 or fewer combined points with all 3 meetings this seasons failing to eclipse the 200 mark. Take the UNDER! |
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02-22-18 | 76ers v. Bulls UNDER 214 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/76ers UNDER I really like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Bulls hosting the 76ers. Chicago's offense simply isn't as potent following the trade of Mirotic and they went into the break averaging just 101 ppg over their last 5. Philadelphia on the other hand really got their defense going in the final games before the break, as they allowed just 95.2 ppg over their last 5, while holding opponents to just 41.3% from the field. I think that combination will be more than enough to keep this below the mark set by the books. It also helps the game is being played in Chicago, as we should get a big effort here from the Bulls defensively at home. It's also worth noting the Bulls went into the All-Star break having failed to cover the spread in each of their final 3 games. That's important, because the UNDER is 23-8 in Chicago's last 31 games after failing to cover 3 or more games in a row. UNDER is also 13-4 in the Bulls last 17 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs strong offensive teams that average 106 or more points/game. Take the UNDER! |
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02-11-18 | Raptors v. Hornets UNDER 215.5 | Top | 123-103 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in today's early action that has the Raptors visiting the Hornets. I think it's hard for NBA teams to get in a flow offensively in these early games on Sunday, especially this late in the season. These two teams combined for 140 points in their previous meeting back in December, which I believe has this total way too high. Toronto has been locked in defensively over their current 4-game winning streak. The Raptors have held their opponents to just 92.5 ppg and have held each of their last 3 opponents under 40% from the field. I think there's a good chance they keep it going here against a Hornets team that has shot poorly in each of their last two games and managed just 94 points in their last game against the Jazz. UNDER is 5-1 in the Raptors last 6 games off a win and 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 74-39 (66%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total north of 200 where they home team comes in having failed to cover the spread in 3 or more games and are on little rest, playing their 3rd game in a 4 day span. Take the UNDER! |
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02-07-18 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 202 | Top | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Jazz visiting the Grizzlies. I know Utah has been putting up some big offensive numbers of late, but I think we could see them struggle to put up a big number here against Memphis. The pace here figures to be a lot slower than the last few games for the Jazz, plus they have to be a bit fatigued here playing their 4th straight on the road. The Grizzlies have decided to sit out arguably their biggest offensive threat in Tyreke Evans until the trade deadline passes. In the 4 games without him the offense hasn't scored more than 102 points and have failed to eclipse 90 in their last 2 games. Memphis has no choice but to slow down the pace without Evans and this isn't a spot where they will look to push it playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. UNDER is 11-3 in the Grizzlies last 14 after losing 3 or more straight games, 4-1 in their last 5 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 7-2 in their last 9 home games following a road trip of 7 o more days. UNDER is also 23-8 in the last 31 meetings between these two teams in Memphis. Take the UNDER! |
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02-04-18 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 209 | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks Nets UNDER I love the value here in the UNDER with Sunday's NBA total that has the Bucks visiting the Nets. Both of these teams have seen the majority of their games finish below the mark here of late. The UNDER has chased in 6 straight games for the Bucks and 11 of their last 13 overall. UNDER is 7-2 in the Bucks last 9 games and 14-4 in their last 14 games at home. Add in the early start time here and I just don't see these two teams eclipsing the mark set here by the books. Keep in mind both teams have been struggling offensively. Milwaukee followed an 89-point effort at Minnesota with a mere 92-points in their last game against the Knicks. As for Brooklyn, they scored fewer than 100 points in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER! |
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01-28-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 227.5 | Top | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Pelicans UNDER The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's total between the Clippers and Pelicans. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NBA at 111.1 ppg, but they simply aren't going to be the same explosive offensive team going forward. The Pelicans lost star big man DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury. Cousins was averaging 25.2 ppg and a team high 2.2 made 3-pointers/game. New Orleans will have to adjust their style and I think it takes some time for the offense to figure it out. The Clippers come in having allowed and scored at least 100 points in 13 straight games, which is also creating value with this big total set here. The offense hasn't been as good for LA the last two games and I think we see them struggle to get going here. UNDER is 41-14 (75%) when you have a total of 220 to 229.5 where the road team is revenging a loss to a team that scored 100+ points in the previous meeting and is off a road win. Take the UNDER! |
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01-20-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +4.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets + I like the value here with the Rockets here at home in Saturday's big showdown with the Warriors. James Harden returned to action in Houston's last game and the Rockets cruised to a 116-98 win over a Timberwolves team that had been playing very well. The Rockets might not be able to beat the Warriors in a 7-game series, but I like their chances here at home in this 1-game set, as this one simply means more to Houston than it does Golden State. Warriors are overvalued just about every time they take the floor, but even more so when they go up against a good team and the numbers back it up. Golden State is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of fading the Warriors. Teams off a road win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are just 16-40 (29%) ATS in the month of January over the last 5 seasons. Take Houston! |
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01-15-18 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 211 | Top | 119-104 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets UNDER This might seem like a low total given the recent outcomes of both of these teams, but my money in this situation is on the UNDER. These two teams don't like each other and will be facing off for the third time this season. The more familiar two teams get with one another, the harder it becomes to score in the halfcourt. Another factor here is I don't think either side has a lot of gas left in the tank. Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in the span of just 4 days. On top of that, we have a rare early start time for a weekday game with the holiday and I think that only makes it harder on the players to come out and be effective offensively. UNDER is 20-9 in the Nets last 29 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. It's also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 14 off a SU loss and 7-1 in their last 8 home games. Take the UNDER! |
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12-31-17 | Grizzlies v. Kings UNDER 196 | Top | 114-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER The simple fact that the Grizzlies just played in a game last night with Golden State that saw 269 combined points and have a total less than 200 tonight says it all. Memphis couldn't have played any better in that game, as they laid it all on the line against the defending champs. They shot 52% from the field and were a ridiculous 15 of 21 (71%) from long distance. The pace of the game was frantic and I just don't see how they come out with any energy tonight, especially against one of the league's bottom feeders in the Kings. Keep in mind that even with the massive outburst last night, the Grizzlies are still averaging a mere 98.3 ppg this season. They simply let the Warriors dictate the tempo. Memphis on the season ranks dead last in the NBA in pace. The Kings love to play at a slow tempo as well, as they are right behind the Grizzlies at 29th in pace. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. Take the UNDER! |
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12-15-17 | Jazz v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Celtics - After going on an absolute tear, Boston has come down to earth a little bit here of late, as they are just 2-2 SU in their last 4 and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5. I think it's led to a great price to back the Celtics at home here against the Jazz. Utah has been up and down this season, but are not playing well right now. The Jazz have lost 4 straight with the most recent being a 100-103 loss at Chicago. Prior to that they lost by double-digits to both the Bucks and Rockets. This is now their 3rd straight on the road and while Boston is a legit opponent, I think upcoming games against the Cavs and Rockets are ones they will be more excited for. Celtics have also owned bad road teams at home, going 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record. They are also 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 off a straight up win. Take Boston! |
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12-13-17 | Hornets v. Rockets OVER 220 | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER I just don't think the books have set the bar high enough for tonight's total with the Rockets and Hornets. Houston is playing out of their minds right now. The Rockets are 21-4 through their first 25 games and have not lost a game with Chris Paul in the lineup. They are doing it behind an offense that averages 115 ppg, shoots 47% from the field (48% at home) and averages 16 made 3-pointers per game. They should have their way here against the Hornets, who come in allowing 107.4 ppg on the road. I think we see Houston eclipse 120 and that would mean all we need out of Charlotte is for them to score a measly 100 points. I think give us more than that. The Hornets are coming off a 116 point showing at OKC on Monday, where they hit 53% from the field. I also think we don't see a big effort here from Houston defensively off a big come from behind win over the Pelicans on Monday and a huge game against the Spurs on deck Friday. Take the OVER! |
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11-22-17 | Raptors -4 v. Knicks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto - The Raptors are a team that I think is flying under the radar early on this season and they come into this game red-hot having won 4 straight and are 6-1 over their last 7 with the only loss a 1-point defeat to the Celtics. They have covered each of their last 4 games and I look for them to make it 5 in a row here tonight against a Knicks team they manhandled in a 107-84 win at home last Friday. New York is playing better than expected so far this season, as they are 9-7 through their first 16 games. However, none of their wins are all that impressive, as they have beat up on a lot of bad teams at home during this stretch. I still think this team has a long way to go to compete with the top tier teams like the Raptors. I just feel they are getting way too much respect right now and it's only a matter of time before they return to their losing ways. Toronto has been a covering machine on the road, going 6-3 ATS in their 9 road games this season. The Raptors also seem to save their best for division opponents, as they are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 vs teams from the Atlantic Division. NY on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs team that's won more than 60% of their games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 division games. Take Toronto! |
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11-13-17 | Cavs -4.5 v. Knicks | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavs - I believe all the negative talk early with Cleveland has the Cavs showing great value right now and I really like them here as a short road favorite against the Knicks. While Cleveland is just 3-2 in their last 5, they are painfully close to having a 5-game winning streak, as both losses came by 4-points or less and one of those was at red-hot Houston. New York has been playing well here of late, but most of that has come against bad teams. Everyone knows LeBron loves playing at the Garden and there's extra incentive here for the Cavs after that ugly 95-114 loss at home to these Knicks in the most recent meeting. Look for them to make a statement here. Take Cleveland! |
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11-08-17 | Lakers +9 v. Celtics | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lakers + I like the value here with LA catching a big number here against the Celtics. While Boston failed to cover in their 120-117 win at Atlanta in their last game, they are still getting way overvalued right now by the books due to the fact that they are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. The Lakers are also playing well right now. They come in having won 3 of their last 4 and have covered the spread in all 4 of these contests. Los Angeles is getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they have put up 107 or more in each of their last 4 games. Boston's defense has been great early, but they weren't sharp in their last game, allowing the Hawks to hit 48% from the field. I think LA can do enough here to keep this one within the number. You also have to keep in mind this has to be a tired Celtics team, as they are playing their 6th game in the last 10 days. Boston is just 2-11 ATS in this scheduling spot over the last 2 seasons. They are also just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-06-17 | Nets v. Suns UNDER 236 | Top | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Nets UNDER With Brooklyn having gone OVER the total in 3 straight games, where all 3 games saw at least 235 combined points and Phoenix having allowed 112 or more points in each of their last 5 games, I think the books have made a big overreaction here with the total for tonight's game and created some big time value on the UNDER. Phoenix ranks second in the NBA in pace, but I just don't see how they are going to have the energy to push the ball up and down the floor tonight. The Suns just finished a 5-game road trip that spanned 9 days with yesterday's game at San Antonio. It's hard enough playing on no rest as it is, but this is just brutal. I look for Phoenix to really try to slow things down and that should be more than enough to keep this below the massive mark set by the books. UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after scoring 105 or more points in 3 straight games. It's also 11-4 in the Suns last 15 when coming off a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! |
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11-06-17 | Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 205 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action between the Celtics and Hawks. The UNDER is an impressive 6-2 during Boston's 8 game winning streak. The Celtics have held all 8 opponents during this stretch to 94 or fewer points. Atlanta is only averaging 102.7 ppg and scoring roughly 5 points fewer than what their opponents have been allowing on the season (107.4 ppg). While the Hawks defense hasn't been great, Boston's not exactly lighting it up offensively. The Celtics are only scoring 102.9 ppg and big reason for that is they rank in the bottom 5 in pace of play. They figure to play at an even slower pace than normal tonight, as the Celtics are not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. Atlanta is also playing for the 3rd time in 4 days, so they too won't be looking to get up and down the floor. UNDER is 6-1 in the Hawks last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Celtics last 9 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when coming off a win. Take the UNDER! |
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11-05-17 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Knicks UNDER I really like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's matchup between the Knicks and Pacers. I believe the number here has been inflated due to recent results, as the OVER has cashed in each of the Pacers last two games and each of the last 3 for the Knicks. These Sunday games have to be the least popular day for NBA players to play and it often leads to sluggish showings on the offensive side of the ball. That's been the case for both of these teams, as the UNDER is 15-6 in the Knicks last 21 games played on Sunday and 6-2 in the Pacers last 8 on Sunday. We also got a great system in play here favoring this one to finish below the mark. UNDER is 44-18 (71%) going back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 where the road team comes in having scored 105 or more points in 2 straight games and is facing an opponent that has had a combined scored of 215 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-03-17 | Rockets -8 v. Hawks | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets - I'll gladly back Houston laying single digits on the road against the Hawks. The Rockets are coming off their best performance since their opening win at Golden State, as they knocked off the Knicks 119-97 in New York. Houston finally got going from long-distance with 19 3-pointers and their poor shooting from the outside had played a big role in their slow start. Atlanta simply doesn't have the talent to keep this one competitive. The Hawks have lost 7 straight since their opening win over the Mavs, who are another team competing for the honor of worst team in the league. Atlanta is one of the worst shooting teams, connecting unjust 42.6% of their field goal attempts. They are also not good defensively, giving up 109 ppg. Adding incentive here for Houston is the fact that they have lost 7 straight to Atlanta, with the last win in the series coming all the way back in 2013. Don't doubt for a second that's not on the mind of the Rockets players. That should be more than enough motivation for them to turn this into a blowout. Take Houston! |
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10-28-17 | Pistons v. Clippers UNDER 208 | Top | 95-87 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Late Night BAILOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Pistons UNDER I like the value here with UNDER quite a bit in Saturday's late night action between the Pistons and Clippers. Los Angeles just allowed 100 points for the first time this season, as they gave up 103 points to the Blazers. The Clippers are still giving up just 91.7 ppg and that number drops to just 86 ppg at home. Detroit is a team they can lock down on and keep from putting up a big number. The Pistons have benefited from playing a soft schedule when it comes to the defenses they have faced. In fact, they are averaging just 106 ppg against teams that on average give up 107 ppg. Detroit is also not bad defensively, as they are allowing just 102 ppg and the Clippers aren't as dynamic offensively without Chris Paul running the point. The Pistons scored 122 in their last game, but that's actually a good thing for us, as the UNDER is 25-11 in Detroit's last 36 after a game where they scored 120 or more points. UNDER is also 5-1 in their last 6 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 when they are playing a team that scored 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs UNDER 195 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Best Bet 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Mavs UNDER The Grizzlies are come in allowing just 94.0 ppg and that's really impressive when you consider they have faced both the Warriors and Rockets. Memphis held Golden State's high-powered attack to just 101 points and two days later held Houston to a mere 90 points. Clearly the Grizzlies are locked in on the defensive side of the ball and I see no reason why they won't shut down a Dallas offense that is as limited as they come. In fact, the Mavericks are so limited they are trying to slow the game down and grind out each possession just to be competitive. That's going to make it hard for either team to eclipse the 100 point mark and I wouldn't be shocked if this one finished closer to 180 points. Keep in mind they played a game last year towards the beginning of the season where they combined for a whopping 144 points. UNDER is 25-9 in the Grizzlies last 34 road games off a win over a division rival and 22-7-1 in the Mavericks last 30 games after they scored 100 or more point sin their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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10-24-17 | Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER The books have set the bar way too high for tonight's Western Conference clash between the Blazers and Pelicans. Portland will finally get to play a game at home after opening the season with 3 straight on the road and have had a full two days off to get back their legs. I expect a big time defensive effort here by a very underrated Blazers team. They should be able to keep the Pelicans in check, as there's not a lot you have to worry about outside of the two bigs in Cousins and Davis. Prior to giving up 113 to Milwaukee the Blazers held the Pacers to 96 and the Suns to a mere 76. I think this one ends up closer to 210 than 220. UNDER is 15-4 in the Pelicans last 19 road games after they scored 110 or more points in each of their previous two games and 13-3 in their last 16 road games after covering the spread in 2 straight. Take the UNDER! |
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10-23-17 | Hornets v. Bucks UNDER 205 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Bucks UNDER This might seem like a low total given the Bucks are giving up 108.7 ppg, but that's more of who Milwaukee has played. They opened the season at Boston before hosting the Cavs and Blazers. They held both the Celtics and Blazers UNDE 43% shooting and should be able to do it here against a Hornets team that is only hitting 41.5% from the field in two games against the Pistons and Hawks. Charlotte is playing a much slower-paced game with the focus on defense and the offense running through big man Dwight Howard. I look for both of these teams to struggle to get in any kind of rhythm offensively and don't think either side will be able to reach the 100 point mark in this one. Take the UNDER! |
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10-21-17 | Blazers v. Bucks UNDER 214.5 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between the Blazers and Bucks. Portland's defense has been exceptional to start the year. The Blazers held the Suns to just 76 points in their opener and that same Phoenix team score 130 the next night. They followed it up by holding the Pacers to just 96 and Indiana had scored 140 in their previous game. Bucks are talented young team with a great player in Antetokounmpo, but aren't a great 3-point shooting team and are strong defensively. Exactly what you look for when you want a low-scoring game. I also think the tempo of this game won't be up to normal pace with both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. For Portland it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and Milwaukee just put it all on the line last night against the LeBron and the Cavs at home. Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Blazers). Take the UNDER! |
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10-21-17 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 215 | Top | 94-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
5* 76ers/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors OVER I look for these two teams to fly OVER the total set here by the books. Philadelphia scored just 92 in the loss at home to Boston last night and are going to be without one of their best defenders in Embiid, who isn't playing back-to-backs just yet. I think the entire 76ers team struggles on defense being on the road with no rest against a potent Toronto offense that needed just 83 shots to score 117 in their opener. The Raptors did allow a Bulls team that was missing half their roster to score 100, so we can expect Ben Simmons and company to at least hit that mark. Keep in mind that Philadelphia had 115 in their opener at Washington. OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and 6-2 in the last 8 times they have played in Toronto. OVER was 14-6 in 76ers last 20 games last year when playing on no rest and 7-0 in Toronto's last 7 home games when playing against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! |
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10-20-17 | Magic v. Nets OVER 223.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets OVER Defense is clearly not a priority for the Nets. Brooklyn ranked 2nd to last in points allowed last year at 112.5 ppg and started out the 2017 season by giving up 140 to a Pacers team that lost their best scorer in Paul George. The big difference is that the Nets now have some offensive fire-power to stay with teams. They scored 131 against the Pacers and even with the loss of Lin, should continue to score at a high rate. Orlando put up 116 in their opener against the Heat, while giving up 109 and that was with Miami shooting just 43% from the field. Both these teams want to push the pace and play in the open court, which should have us flying over the mark set by the books. History is also on our side here. The OVER is hitting at a 61% clip since 1996 when you have a team off a combined score of 225 or more against a team off a combined score of 235 or more. Take the OVER! |
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10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder UNDER 215 | Top | 84-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
5* Knicks/Thunder NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder/Knicks UNDER This is just too many points for this matchup. I believe we are seeing a high total here because of the fact that the Thunder now have 3 superstars in Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. As good as those 3 are, it's going to take some time for these guys to form a chemistry on offense. George and Anthony are accustomed to being "the guy," but will have to learn to take a back seat to Westbrook. I think it takes as much as the first 20 games before this team really gels. The other thing is the depth isn't what it use to be. The Thunder are going struggle to get a whole lot out of their bench. There's also a decent chance the starters don't play the entire game here, as the Knicks have the makings of one of the worst teams in the league. New York just doesn't have the offensive fire-power and in today's game where everyone is lighting up the scoreboard, they didn't even average 100 ppg in the preseason when no one is playing defense. I don't see the offense doing much here on the road in what's going to be electric atmosphere inside Chesapeake Energy Arena. Take the UNDER! |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors - There's no question the refs were doing their part to extend the series at least one more game with how they officiated that 1st quarter of Game 5, which Cleveland managed to score a ridiculous 49 points in the 1st quarter and 86 in the 1st half. The Cavs were shooting free throws left and right early. That played a huge role in the game. More than anything them getting off to that strong start gave them confidence, which led to a great shooting night. It also got the Warriors in foul trouble and didn't let them play with the same intensity on defense. It's not that Golden State wasn't committing any fouls, it's just they weren't calling the same fouls on Cleveland on the other side of the ball. With the series back in Golden State, I look for the Warriors to get a more favorable whistle and that should be all they need to not only win, but to win in blowout fashion. Take Golden State! |
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06-09-17 | Warriors -6 v. Cavs | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors - I'll be the first to admit that I was fortunate to cover with the Warriors in Game 3, but I'm not jumping off them, even with a bigger number in Game 4. Cleveland played as well as they could and had to feel like they had the game won before that epic collapse in the final 3 minutes. I just don't see the Cavs emotionally and physically having what it takes to keep Game 4 competitive. Yes, it's the NBA Finals, but going out with a fight isn't as big a deal for a team that just won the title last year. On the flip side of this, I see no letdown for the Warriors, who are not only chasing a perfect 16-0 record in the postseason, but I believe they want to return the favor and celebrate the title on Cleveland's floor after losing Game 7 at home last year. You have to be 100% locked in to beat this Warriors team and I just don't see being the case for Cleveland, who I think will be quick to throw in the towel once Golden State gets anywhere close to a double-digit lead. Take Golden State! |
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06-07-17 | Warriors -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors - As much as everyone wants Cleveland to make this a series and win Game 3 at home, I just don't think it's going to happen. It would be one thing if Golden State finished off the Cavs last year after taking a 3-1 lead, but because they failed to do so, I don't see them taking any game for grantit. I look for them to come out 100% locked in on taking a 3-0 lead and I just don't know what Cleveland is going to do to stop them. LeBron is averaging a triple-double and they are getting beat by 20+ points/game. Even if the Cavs' role players step up and play better, I still think it takes a near perferct performance just for them to win this game. I also hear alot about how the first two games last year in Golden State were blowouts. That team didn't have Durant and he's the MVP of the finals right now. Take Golden State! |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on OVER After a relatlvely low-scoring Game 1, I think we are seeing some decent value here on the total and it going over the mark in Game 2. Keep in mind the total was as high as 227 in Game 1. Golden State scored 113 and it could have been a lot more had they not missed so many easy shots around the rim. The real killer to the total in Game 1 was the Cavs inability to get their offense going, as well as they just shot the ball bad. Cleveland shot just 34.9% from the field. What people overlook is the Warriors also didn't have a great shooting performance, as they hit only 42.5%. Their worst mark from the field since a regular season meeting against the 76ers back on March 14. The lopsided score also aided a lower scoring Game 1, though I think we could see another blowout and this game still fly over the mark. Take the OVER! |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -7 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors - These two teams are clearly in a class above the rest of the league, I just feel that the Warriors are the more complete team. James is the best player in the game, but he's going up against 4 of the best players in the game in Durant, Curry, Thompson and Green, plus I feel that Golden State has the deeper roster. You also can't discount the revenge here with the Warriors after blowing a 3-1 lead in last year's Finals. It's also worth pointing out that the home team has dominated the spread in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, going 11-1 ATS in the last 12. On top of that, James' teams are 1-6 ATS in Game 1 of the Finals. Take Golden State! |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +11 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Celtics + Not a big surprise that Boston is a bigger home dog here in Game 5 than they were in Games 1 and 2 with the loss of star point guard Isaiah Thomas, but I'm not so sure the loss of Thomas is as bad as people think. The Celtics won their first game without him in Cleveland and followed that up with another strong showing in a loss in Game 4, where Irving went off and the Cavs didn't miss in the 2nd half (shot 65% from the field). How are they better? As good of a scorer as Thomas is, he's a major liability on defense, especially when he's got to guard Irving and get put in pick-n-rolls with LeBron. At the same time, Boston's offense is more of a system than anything, much like the Spurs, which can give teams problem. I actually think the loss of Thomas has helped them move the ball better. I don't see this team going down without a fight and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Take BOSTON! |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs -14.5 | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavaliers - I know this is a huge number and the Celtics just won outright as an even bigger dog in Game 3, but I just don't see this game being competitive. Cleveland did whatever they wanted in the first two games of the series, including that epic beatdown in Game 2, where they were up by 50. If they were going to suffer a letdown, it was going to be Game 3 and while it happened, they still had a 20+ point lead in the 2nd half. A 100% locked in Cleveland team will take the floor tonight and no one is going to be more motivated than LeBron James, who has been hearing nothing but how poorly he played in Game 3. I think we could see another massive blowout here and I'm confident that the Cavaliers wins here by 20+ points. Take Cleveland! |
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05-22-17 | Warriors -12 v. Spurs | Top | 129-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors - I'll take my chances with the Warriors closing this series out in fashion, much like they did in the first two rounds on the road. Up 3-0 on the Blazers in Round 1, Golden State defeated Portland 128-103. In the next round, up 3-0 on the Jazz, they crushed Utah on the road 121-95. I expect a similar outcome here and wouldn't be shocked if got ugly. San Antonino gave it all they had in Game 3 without Khawi and lost by 12 and with him still sidelined and David Lee also now out, I just don't see the Spurs truly believing they can come back and make this a series. As for Golden State, they got a great reminder of what can happen when you take your foot off the gas with the Celtics improbable win yesterday. They also now have a chance to get some extra rest on Cleveland before the finals, who still has to play at least two more games. Take Golden State! |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 214 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year on UNDER Each of the first two games in this series have gone well over the total and yet we are seeing the books stick close to their original number of 212 that they opened with for Game 1. With the series shifting to San Antonio and the Warriors off a 36-point blowout win in Game 2, I think Game 3 is poised to be a much lower-scoring game. For one, Golden State is primed for some kind of letdown here after how easy it was in Game 2 and don't figure to shoot as well on the road. San Antonio on the other hand is playing to keep their season alive. While the series isn't over with a loss, the Spurs know their chances of advancing down 3-0 are slim to none against this Warriors team. We are going to get everything San Antonio has and they know their only way of even keeping it close so they have a chance to win is to lock down defensively and slow the pace of play down. My money is on Popovich and his staff to make the proper adjustments and keep the Warriors high-powered attack in check. Take the UNDER! |
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05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavs - I was all over Cleveland in Game 1 and I just can't go against them after what I saw in the opener. As I mentioned in my analysis for Game 1, the Cavs are taking note of everything the Warriors are doing and want to match their perfect 10-0 start to the postseason.The last thing they want is to have this series drag out before taking on Golden State. I know this team struggled some with Indiana, but they were in the process of turning on that playoff switch after not playing well to close out the regular season. They made easy work of a very good Toronto team in the next round and did whatever they wanted to the Celtics on Wednesday. I truly believe Boston has to play their best just to keep this game close and could do so and still not cover this spread. LeBron James is playing out of his mind and when he's locked in like this, there's no stopping this team, at least in the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind this is a Cavs team that is fresh right now, having played a mere 9 games in over a month (played first playoff game on 4/15). Take Cleveland! |