Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-09-12 | Los Angeles Clippers +5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Clippers +5
Motivated by back-to-back 1-point defeats, and further fueled by a pair of loss to San Antonio this season, expect the Clippers to give the Spurs all they want and more. The Clippers have been a strong wager in bounce back spots at 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The fact San Antonio enters off a satisfying win over the Knicks bodes well for us. That's because the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Spurs have dropped 2 of their last 4 at home, and could suffer another setback tonight. We'll take the points. |
|||||||
03-08-12 | Dallas Mavericks v. Phoenix Suns +3.5 | Top | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* (TNT) on Suns +3.5
This is a game the Suns want badly. They have lost 8 in a row to the Mavs, including all 3 this season, and were embarrassed with a 122-99 home loss the last time they squared off. Motivation is rarely enough alone, so it's fortunate for us that Dallas has been struggling on the road. This really doesn't come as much of a surprise. Dallas was so good last season because of its bench, and it's not getting the same production from the second unit due to injuries and losing J.J. Barea. Dallas has lost 4 in a row on the road by an average of 6.8 points and one of those was a 5-point loss to lowly New Orleans. The Suns, meanwhile, have won 5 of their last 6 at home and haven't lost by more than 2 points in any of their last 7 home games. The Suns played in OKC last night but shouldn't be gassed as they had 2 days' rest prior. In fact, the Suns are 9-0 ATS all-time under coach Gentry in home games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days. They have won by an average score of 101.2 to 92.0 in this spot. We'll take the Suns. |
|||||||
03-07-12 | Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 | Top | 71-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong against a fatigued Boston squad that was pushed to OT last night. The Celtics have won 5 in a row, with the last 4 coming at home, but I believe their luck is about to change on the road. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The 76ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-06-12 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons +6 | Top | 85-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +6
There's no place like home for the Lakers, who are just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS on the road. The Lakers haven't won by more than 5 points away from home this season with those 6 wins coming by just 3.3 points on average. This tells us LA is overvalued tonight. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite while the Pistons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Pistons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. We'll take the points. |
|||||||
03-05-12 | Sacramento Kings +9.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +9.5
Out to end a 3-game skid, and out to avenge a pair of embarrassing losses to Denver, the Kings will be lacking no motivation this evening. Sacramento has been a more than quality investment this season when checking in off 3 of more consecutive losses. In fact, it is 8-1 ATS in these spots and is winning by an average of 0.7 points. In addition, the Kings are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Northwest division and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games when playing with a days' rest. We'll back the Kings in this highly motivated spot. |
|||||||
03-04-12 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers +4 | Top | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +4
The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the Heat in a bounce back spot following a 1-point loss at Utah, but recent history tells us this isn't wise. Consider that Miami is just 4-16 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing by an average of 2.0 points in this spot. The Lakers are 16-2 at home this season and enter this contest having won 7 in a row at Staples. Their 2 home defeats to the Bulls and Pacers have come by 1 and 2 points respectively. The Lakers will also be very motivated here because they were embarrassed in Miami in January. Plays on home underdogs in non-conference play that are extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days) are an awesome 45-18 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 3.7 points on average but have won by an average of 1.4 points. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 18-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Lakers. |
|||||||
03-02-12 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 | Top | 112-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Cavs +8.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 39-point loss to Chicago on Jan. 20, I expect Cleveland to cover this number behind an inspired performance. Because Chicago won the first meeting so handily, I believe it will be much more concerned with its upcoming revenge matchup with Philadelphia. The Cavs lost by 17 at New York Wednesday but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season. Also, the Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog and 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games against top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 9 points or more per game. We'll take the points. |
|||||||
02-29-12 | Portland Trailblazers v. Denver Nuggets -3 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -3
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by losses in the season's first two matchups with Portland, expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong tonight. The Blazers won the season's first two meetings by 9 and 20 points but both of those games were in Portland. Home court has meant everything in this series with the home team covering the spread in 12 of the last 14 meetings. Denver has won 6 in a row at home against the Blazers by an average of 15.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are just 4-16 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Denver. Lay the points. |
|||||||
02-20-12 | Washington Wizards +5.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 88-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak in the series, expect the Wizards to play some inspired basketball this evening. The Suns are coming off a big revenge win over the Lakers last night and very likely won't give the Wizards enough respect here. The Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Washington, which has had 2 full days of rest, will be the fresher team tonight. The Suns are 0-9 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when matched up against an opponent with a winning percentage of 25% or less. The Suns have only won these games by an average of 0.1 points. It's also worth noting that the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the points. |
|||||||
02-17-12 | Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5 | Top | 111-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Cavaliers +10.5
Motivated by losing the season's first two meetings with Miami, expect the Cavs to give the Heat a game tonight. Cleveland has been no pushover this season. It played the Heat to a 7-point game on Jan. 24 and has wins over the Celtics, Mavericks and Clippers. The last time Miami visited, it was handed a 12-point defeat despite 27 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds from LeBron James. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. The Heat are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points. |
|||||||
02-15-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets +4 | Top | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Rockets +4
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by losses to Oklahoma City in the season's first 2 meetings, expect the Rockets to bounce back strong at home, where they are 10-3 SU (9-4 ATS). The Rockets only lost by 3 points at home to the Thunder on Jan. 7. In fact, they have either won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 13 of the last 14 at home in this series. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. In addition, plays against road favorites that have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 50-18 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 3.7 points but have lost by an average of 1.2. Take Houston as it has an excellent chance to win this one outright. |
|||||||
02-10-12 | Dallas Mavericks -2 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Mavs -2
The Mavs had won 18 of 19 against the T-Wolves from Jan. 2006-March 2011 while outscoring them by an average of 9.6 points before losing the first 2 meetings this season. They had also won 9 in a row at the Target Center before a 99-82 loss Jan. 1. Motivated by those 2 defeats, expect the reigning NBA champs to rise to the occasion this evening. This is a great spot for Dallas considering it is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 104.4 to 95.9 in this situation. The Mavericks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 road games while the Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Minnesota, and the road team is 21-5 ATS in the last 26 meetings. We'll bet Dallas in this revenge spot. |
|||||||
02-09-12 | Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -3.5 | Top | 96-89 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Suns -3.5
Phoenix is playing its best basketball of the season and has won 3 in a row as a result. It is playing with a lot of confidence right now and will be hungry to avenge Friday's embarrassing 18-point loss at Houston. This is a difficult spot for the Rockets, who just played and won in Portland last night. I don't think they'll give a team they just smoked enough focus as a result. Plus, Houston is expected to be without starting guard Kyle Lowry. Don't expect the offense to run as smoothly without the team's assist leader on the floor. The Suns are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in this series with those wins coming by an average of 6.5 points. Also, the Rockets are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, 7-22 ATS in the last 29 meetings in this series and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns. |
|||||||
02-08-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks -3 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hawks -3
Off 3 straight losses and having already fallen to Indiana this season, Atlanta will be lacking no motivation tonight. Plus, it bodes well for us that the Pacers just played last night. The Pacers are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Also, Indiana is 4-14 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days since the beginning of last season. It has lost these games by an average of 10.6 points. In addition, the Hawks have won 8 in a row at home in this series by 16, 12, 14, 4, 11, 10, 14 and 15 points - an average margin of 12.0 points. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. We'll take the Hawks. |
|||||||
02-07-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Milwaukee Bucks -7 | Top | 107-105 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks -7
The Bucks have lost back-to-back games since a 3-game winning streak that included wins over the Lakers and Heat. Motivated by those losses, and a 16-point defeat in Phoenix last month, expect them to bounce back strong tonight. Consider that Milwaukee is 19-8 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Suns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Bucks have had 2 full days of rest and preparation while the Suns just played last night. We'll bet the Bucks. |
|||||||
02-03-12 | Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -4.5 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Raptors -4.5
Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses to Atlanta and Boston, and further fueled by a 15-point loss at Washington last month, expect Toronto to turn in an inspired performance tonight. The home team has been the play in this series of late. It won each of the last 6 meetings. Toronto has won its 3 at home during this span by 5, 19 and 9 points. The Raptors also fit into an extremely profitable wagering situation. Consider that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided they are checking in off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 5.8 points and have won by an average of 13.1. In addition, Washington is 0-10 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average of 13.7 points. Take Toronto. |
|||||||
02-01-12 | Toronto Raptors +9.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 64-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Raptors +9.5
Motivated by Tuesday's embarrassing 100-77 loss to Atlanta, and further motivated by a 96-73 loss in Boston on Jan. 18, expect the Raptors to give the Celtics a game this evening. The fact Boston played last night also is very important. The aging Celtics won't be able to bounce back as well physically as the more youthful Raptors. Consider that the Celtics are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Celtics are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take Toronto and the points. |
|||||||
01-31-12 | New Jersey Nets +9.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +9.5
The Nets had won back-to-back games on the road over Philadelphia and Cleveland before laying an egg at home against Toronto Sunday. Motivated by that loss, and a loss to Indiana on Jan. 2, expect the Nets to give the Pacers a game tonight. Indiana won the season's first meeting by 14 points but hit 13 of 21 from 3-point range in that game. Considering the Pacers are only averaging 4 3-point makes on 12 attempts per game, I don't see them going off from deep again. New Jersey has quietly won 2 of its last 3 and 4 of its last 7. It's a better team than it was when it saw Indiana in early January, and I believe we'll see that tonight. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Also, the road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points. |
|||||||
01-30-12 | Orlando Magic +7.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +7.5
Off 3 straight losses, including back-to-back blowout defeats, expect the Orlando Magic to take out their frustrations on a team they have owned. The Magic have won 3 in a row and 10 of the last 11 in this series. They have even won 6 straight in Philadelphia. In addition, teams coached by Stan Van Gundy are an impressive 13-3 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. His teams are winning by an average of 5.3 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Magic are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll take the points. |
|||||||
01-27-12 | Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 199 | Top | 81-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on Raptors/Nuggets Under 199
Denver is the highest scoring team in the NBA but it won't be the same high-octane team with without point guard Ty Lawson, who is expected to miss with an ankle injury. The Nuggets won't get as much in transition without their tempo-pusher. Toronto is among the lowest scoring teams in the league, and it will especially have difficulty piling up points tonight with leading scorer Andrea Bargnani expected to miss with a calf injury. Plays Under on all teams (Denver in this case) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points that have gone over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, with a winning record on the season, are 45-19 since 1996. We have only seen an average of 189.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that this system is 7-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Under is 16-7-1 in the Raptors' last 24 overall and 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Under is also 5-1 in the Nuggets' last 6 games as a home favorite. Take the Under. |
|||||||
01-25-12 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -3.5 | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -3.5 |
|||||||
01-23-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors -1.5 | Top | 91-90 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors -1.5
Off back-to-back losses, the Warriors will leave it all on the floor to get back in the win column tonight. Memphis hasn't had much luck at Golden State, where it has dropped 3 in a row and 7 of its last 9. Its last 3 road defeats in this series have come by an average of 10.7 points. The road hasn't treated the Grizzlies well. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Plus, the road team is just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 matchups between these two. The fact the Warriors have had a couple days to rest is also important considering they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Take Golden State. |
|||||||
01-20-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 | Top | 76-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on 76ers -5.5
Not having Al Horford in the lineup is a big deal tonight as he was the key to Atlanta's 2 wins over the 76ers last season. He combined for 35 points and 25 rebounds in those victories. The Hawks lost the game he sat out last season by 34 points. They also lost the game in which he only scored eight points on 4-of-12 shooting. Without Horford down low, the Hawks won't have an answer for Elton Brand. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Philly is also 8-0 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season, winning by an average score of 101.3 to 85.3 in this situation. Lay the points. |
|||||||
01-17-12 | Charlotte Bobcats +12.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +12.5
Motivated by yesterday's loss to Cleveland, and further fueled by a 21-point loss to Orlando on Dec. 30, expect the Bobcats to give the Magic a game tonight. Because Orlando has already handled Charlotte, it will be much more concerned with Wednesday's matchup with San Antonio and Friday's matchup with the Lakers. The Magic have won 9 straight in the series but only 3 of those wins have come by more than 12 points. History says we're on the right side tonight as well. Consider that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points - cold team having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against a hot team having won 8 or more of their last 10 games - are 170-110 ATS since 1996. This system is 30-14 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Magic are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Take the points. |
|||||||
01-16-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Boston Celtics +3.5 | Top | 97-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* (TNT) on Celtics +3.5
The Celtics, who have lost 4 in a row, are hearing all kinds of talk about how their age is catching up with them. I expect them to put that talk to rest momentarily as they prove that can still compete at an elite level tonight. This is a statement game for the Celtics, who need a confidence-boosting win in the worst possible way. I really like their chances of getting that win against an Oklahoma City team that hasn't been dominant on the road. The Thunder are 5-1 away from home, but 4 of those wins have come by 5 points or less. The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Celtics have won 7 of the last 9 in this series. The Thunder are just 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. Bet Boston. |
|||||||
01-14-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards +8 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Wizards +8
Motivated by last night's 120-89 loss in Philly, expect the Wizards to bounce back strong in the back half of their home-and-home with the 76ers. Philly cruised last night but it also made 12 of 18 3-point attempts. It is only averaging 6 makes in 17 attempts from beyond the arc this season. Don't expect the 3 balls to fall as easily on the road tonight. Washington has won its last 4 home games in this series. Plus, the 76ers are a lousy 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Philly won't come out with the same intensity it had last night. The Wizards, meanwhile, will leave it all on the floor in hopes of saving face following such an embarrassing loss. We'll take the points. |
|||||||
01-10-12 | Chicago Bulls v. Minnesota Timberwolves +7 | Top | 111-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +7
Minnesota is better than its 3-6 record leads you to believe, and this line is inflated because of Chicago's 24-point win last night. The T-Wolves have already defeated the reigning NBA champion Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs, who had the best record in the West following the 2010-11 regular season. In addition, they have played the OKC Thunder to a 4-point game and the Miami Heat to a 2-point game. The Bulls are 8-2 but have shown some susceptibility on the road, where both of their losses have happened. One of those defeats came to a Golden State team that isn't playing as well as Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points tonight. |
|||||||
01-06-12 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns +2.5 | Top | 77-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Suns +2.5
This is a letdown spot for the Blazers, who hit the road with no rest following a big win over the Lakers. The Blazers have been a solid home team for quite some time but consistency has been an issue on the road. They enter tonight's contest at 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the home team has had the upper hand in this series, covering the number in 5 of the last 7 meetings. Looking back further, we find the Blazers are only 7-15-2 ATS in the last 24 games in Phoenix. There's something about Friday nights for the Suns, who are an amazing 28-14 ATS when playing on the Friday night stage under coach Gentry. The Suns haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average of 7.4 points. Take Phoenix. |
|||||||
06-12-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat -4.5 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 6, ABC) on Heat -4.5
I can't see Dallas winning three in a row in this series. The Heat are just too good. Plus, they'll have the home crowd behind them and they'll be playing with a sense of desperation in this do-or-die Game 6. Teams tend to play their best when desperate. Miami played well enough to win Game 5 and led by 4 in the fourth down the stretch. The Heat likely would have held on to win that game had Dallas not continued its flukish 3-point shooting performance. The Mavs average 8 3-point makes on 37% shooting for the season but shot a ridiculous 13 of 19 (68.4%) from deep in Game 5. With Miami stepping up the defensive intensity and with a change of venue for Dallas, I can't see the three balls falling the same way here. That gives Miami the edge. The Heat are 9-1 at home in these playoffs. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Expect Miami to take care of business tonight to extend the series. Lay the points. |
|||||||
06-09-11 | Miami Heat +1.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 5, ABC) on Heat +1.5
Despite outplaying Dallas for the majority of each game, the series is tied 2-2. After feeling like they gave away Game 4, you can bet Miami will show up tonight. Miami hasn't dropped consecutive games since early March, winning after all seven of their most recent losses by an average of 9.7 points. Miami has been exceptional in bounce back spots and I have no doubts we will see a much better performance from LeBron James tonight. James scored only eight points on 11 shots in Game 4. It was the first time in 90 career playoff games that he failed to reach double-digits in points. Despite scoring nearly 19 points below his average, the Heat were right in the game until the end. That shows you how good this team really is. The two-time MVP will bounce back tonight and I expect him to be the difference. The Mavericks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games while the Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Heat are also 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 games in Dallas. Take Miami. |
|||||||
06-07-11 | Miami Heat v. Dallas Mavericks -140 | Top | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year (ABC) on Mavericks pk
The Mavs are 7-2 at home in these playoffs and haven't lost back-to-back home games, provided there weren't any road games in between, since early January when Dirk Nowitzki was out with injury. Miami, meanwhile, has not won back-to-back road games, provided there were no home games in between, in these playoffs. The Heat split the first pair of back-to-back road games in Philadelphia, Boston and Chicago and I fully expect this trend to continue. This is a must-win game for the Mavs and they won't be lacking any confidence at home knowing they only lost by 2 points in Game 2 despite a lackluster performance. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss, Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. In addition, plays on home teams when the line is +3 to -3, provided they are off an upset loss and both they and their opponent carry winning percentages between 60% and 75%, are 51-19 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 4.6 points. I'm confident Dallas will be able to dig down deep just like they did in Game 2 and the result should be even more convincing on its home floor. I like the Mavs at -3 but really love them to win this game, so we'll take them on the money line tonight. |
|||||||
06-05-11 | Miami Heat +2.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 88-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 3, ABC) on Heat +2.5
Completely disgusted by the way they collapsed down the stretch in Game 2, expect the Heat to come storming back tonight. Consider that Miami hasn't dropped consecutive games since early March, winning after all six of their most recent losses by an average of 11.7 points. In other words, this is a team that responds. The Heat have been very good on the road down the stretch, going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games as a result. It is also worth noting that the road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings in this matchup and the Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. With the exception of the last 7 minutes of Game 2, Miami's defense has stifled the Mavs. Expect the Heat to really bring the "D" tonight as they take Game 3 outright. |
|||||||
06-02-11 | Dallas Mavericks +5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 95-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Mavericks +5
Dallas still hasn't gotten over its loss to Miami in the NBA Finals 5 years ago. Its Game 1 defeat was a reminder of that pain and those haunting memories will serve as the fuel for a Game 2 victory. Right away, I like the fact that Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a loss. I also like that the road team is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings in Miami. In addition, Dallas is 13-3 ATS in all playoff games this season, 20-7 ATS as a road underdog this season and 17-5 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. I went against the Mavs in Game 1 because I didn't think they'd be ready for Miami's defensive intensity, but now they've seen it. Look for Dallas to really push the ball tonight to get easy looks in transition and to take advantage of their depth while keeping Miami from digging in with its half-court defense. Take the Mavs and the points. |
|||||||
05-25-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks -6.5 | Top | 96-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Year on Mavericks -6.5
After blowing a 15-point lead with under 5 minutes remaining in Game 4 that would have tied the series, it will be extremely difficult for the Thunder to get back up, especially on the road. Expect the focused, experienced Mavs to close out the series in impressive fashion tonight. Last series, the Mavs came from behind late to win Game 3 to put the Lakers on the brink of elimination. They wasted no time ending that series, completely crushing LA 122-86 in Game 4. Dallas is 13-1 ATS in all playoff games this season and 8-1 ATS when leading in a playoff series this season. The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It will be too much Dirk Nowitzki for the Thunder to handle yet again tonight. Lay the points. |
|||||||
05-22-11 | Chicago Bulls +5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 85-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls +5
The No. 1 seed in the East, which is 4-1 against Miami this season, is showing excellent value in the underdog role. The Bulls fell in Game 2 but haven't lost back-to-back games since Feb. 5 and 7. The Bulls are an impressive 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog, 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games as a road underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls are also 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss and 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games following an ATS loss. In addition, Chicago is a strong 13-3 ATS when coming off an upset loss this season. It is winning by an average score of 100.1 to 89.4 in this situation. I went large on Miami in Game 2, and it paid off, but the Bulls showed me something. For as poorly as they played, they were right in the game until LeBron James took over late. We can expect the Bulls to play much better in this bounce back spot, which means they should have an excellent chance to pull off the upset. Take the points. |
|||||||
05-21-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 201 | Top | 93-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
5* Game 3 "Total" Dominator (ESPN) on Mavericks/Thunder UNDER 201
Neither team played particularly well on the defensive end in Games 1 and 2, but I expect that to change tonight. With each team looking to take control of the series, we should see more intensity and more heart on the defensive end this evening. Consider that plays Under when the total is 200 to 209.5 on all teams looking to avenge a home loss to an opponent, good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 70-32 the last 5 seasons. In addition, the Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks' last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Under is also 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City. Take the Under. |
|||||||
05-18-11 | Miami Heat +2.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
5* 2011 NBA Game of the Year (TNT) on Heat +2.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 21-point defeat in Game 1, expect the Heat to even the series tonight. Consider that plays on any team off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, a good team (60% to 75% winning percentage) playing a team with a winning record, are 46-23 (67%) ATS the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that Miami is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games following a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. In addition, plays against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75% winning percentage) playing a team with a winning record, are 51-23 (69%) ATS since 1996. LeBron James managed just 15 points in Game 1. Expect a much more aggressive game from him on the offensive end and for Miami to reap the reward. Heat win this one outright. |
|||||||
05-17-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder +6 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 112-121 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder +6
Expect Dallas to show some rust this evening having had 8 full days off. Don't be surprised if that rust costs them a Game 1 victory against a youthful Thunder squad that is playing a lot better than the Lakers did last round. The Thunder are showing terrific value catching this many points considering they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Thunder also have the edge in terms of head-to-head action. Oklahoma City is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Dallas. Dallas easily won the battle of benches against the Lakers but won't have it as easy against an OKC club that brings in Harden, Collison, Mohammed and Maynor. Plus, starters Durant and Westbrook pose major matchup problems for the Dallas defense. Having just wrapped up their series Sunday, expect the Thunder to be in a better rhythm this evening. Take the points. |
|||||||
05-15-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 | Top | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder -6.5
After blowing a double-digit lead in Game 6, expect the Thunder to bounce back strong at home in Game 7 to take the series. I especially expect a big game from Kevin Durant after one of his worst performances of the season. Right away, you have to like the fact that home teams are 21-7 in Game 7s over the past decade. Also, OKC has been incredibly resilient. It is 42-22 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are 46-31 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons and 42-24 ATS in their last 66 games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent. The Grizzlies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Grizzlies. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound the Thunder. |
|||||||
05-13-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Grizzlies -1.5
Off back-to-back defeats, including a brutally embarrassing loss at Oklahoma City Wednesday, and staring elimination square in the face, expect the Grizzlies to rise to the occasion this evening. The Grizzlies are an impressive 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss and an unbeaten 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after being held to less than 75 points in their previous game. In addition, Memphis is 10-0 ATS after having lost 3 of its last 4 games this season. It is winning by an average of 7.2 points in this situation. That's not all. Memphis is 13-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season, 14-5 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - this season and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. These trends point to one thing - Memphis is incredibly resilient. Expect the Grizzlies to extend this series with a big home win tonight. Lay the points. |
|||||||
05-11-11 | Boston Celtics +7.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* (TNT) on Celtics +7.5
The Celtics will not go down without a fight. It's just not in their personality. Game 4 went right down to the wire and I fully expect this one to as well. I don't believe odds makers are showing the defending East champs the respect they deserve with this line. Under coach Rivers, Boston is a tremendous 40-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Celtics are only losing these contests by an average of 5.2 points. Also under Rivers, Boston is an outstanding 50-31 ATS in road games when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent. It is only losing these games by an average of 2.8 points. Over the last 3 seasons, Boston is 25-12 ATS in road games when out to avenge a loss to an opponent. It is actually winning these games by an average of 3.2 points. Boston had an excellent opportunity to win Game 4 without its big 4 playing up to its potential. You can also say that Miami needed overtime to win that game despite its big 3 playing as well as it can possibly play. Boston's stars will play better tonight while it will be a tough encore for LeBron James and company. We'll take the points as Boston shows the heart that has made it a champion. |
|||||||
05-10-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 181 | Top | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Bulls Under 181
After giving up 100 points on nearly 50% shooting in Game 4, expect the best defensive team in the league to tighten the screws in Game 5. The total score should easily find its way Under the number as a result. After giving up 103 points in Game 1, the Bulls dug in and only allowed Atlanta to score 73 points on 33.8% shooting in Game 2. We saw just 159 total points scored in that contest and I'm expecting another low-scoring one here. Consider that Chicago is a perfect 7-0 Under this season when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent of 10 points or more. In addition, the Under is 5-0 in the Hawks' last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Under. |
|||||||
05-09-11 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Heat pk
A heroic performance by Rajon Rondo helped Boston take Game 3, but that performance will be a tough encore. The Celtics, which are extremely banged up, had 3 days to rest up and get treatment before Game 3. Tackling Game 4 with just a day of rest will be a much tougher task. Rondo is the engine of the Boston Celtics and unfortunately for them won't be close to full strength if he is able to go. The Celtics have been a terrible investment following a win. In fact, they are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games following a victory and 17-44-1 ATS in their last 62 games following a win of more than 10 points. Boston is just 5-13 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season. In addition, plays on road teams - good team outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points/game - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 88-49 ATS the last 5 seasons. The youthful Rondo really had to carry the veteran Celtics in Game 2, which was played on 1 days' rest like this one. Boston will need him to carry them in Game 4 but his injury won't allow it. Expect Miami's younger Big 3 to have big games tonight. Take Miami. |
|||||||
05-07-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 200.5 | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
5* 2011 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 200.5
After back-to-back high-scoring games in this series, expect both teams to make the proper adjustments at the defensive end to ensure a lower scoring affair. It bodes extremely well for us that plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, are 42-14 the last 5 seasons. Despite a slower pace in Game 2, we saw the total score go over the number because of Oklahoma City's hot shooting. The Thunder were 8 of 14 from 3-point range. This is significant because OKC is 10-1 Under in road games after a game where it made 50% of it 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 184.1 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 7-3-1 in the Thunder's last 11 road games and 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Under is also 9-3 in the Grizzlies' last 12 games as a favorite. This game will be a lot more intense than the 2 we saw in OKC as each team tries to take control of the series. That intensity will especially show up on the defensive end. Take the Under. |
|||||||
05-06-11 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 92-98 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Lakers +2.5
Three teams have come back to win a 7-game series after losing the first two at home, but no team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit. Knowing the daunting history, I expect the two-time defending champs to leave it all on the floor tonight. Dallas isn't out of the woods yet. The last time the Lakers lost the first two games of a playoff series in the 2008 Finals, they rebounded to win Game 3. Also, the Mavericks famously blew a 2-0 lead to the Miami Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals. The Lakers will be without Ron Artest, who was suspended for his hard foul on J.J. Barea in Game 2, but they are better off giving big minutes to Lamar Odom because of the matchup problems he poses on the offensive end. It is worth noting that plays on road teams facing a point spread of +3 to -3 that are out to avenge a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, provided they check in off an upset loss, are 38-15 (71.7%) against the number the last five seasons. In addition, the Lakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. Also, under coach Jackson, LA is 27-14 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) in the 2nd half of the season. Expect Kobe Bryant to will his team to victory tonight. |
|||||||
05-04-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls -8.5 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls -8.5
Down 0-1 at home, we saw the sense of urgency Oklahoma City played with last night. I expect Chicago to play with a similar level of desperation on its way to a win and cover in Game 2. The Bulls have been a resilient bunch all season. They are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games following an ATS loss and 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a SU defeat. Chicago is also 11-3 ATS following an upset loss this season, responding to win by 10.4 points on average in these spots. Atlanta is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 playoff road games, losing these contests by an average of 12.4 points. It is also 3-14 ATS in its last 17 second round playoff games, losing these by an average of 13.6 points. Prior to a Game 1, Chicago had defeated Atlanta by 18 and 31 points in consecutive games. Chicago's defense was suffocating in those contests and I expect another superb defensive effort to get the job done tonight. |
|||||||
05-03-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 197.5 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff Total of the Week on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 197.5
Zach Randolph was 12 of 22 in Game 1 and 8 of his makes were from at least 10 feet away from the basket. Marc Gasol was 9 of 11 from the field and was 4 of 4 on jumpers from at least 14 feet. I just don't see either player shooting as well tonight, especially with OKC clamping down on the defensive end. The Grizzlies also got 23 points off of 18 Thunder turnovers in Game 1. And they scored 22 second-chance points off 17 offensive boards. Taking care of the basketball and doing a better job of blocking out will easily shave points off the total score this evening. Since coach Brooks has been at the controls, OKC is 19-8 Under in home games when out to avenge a double-digit defeat to an opponent. We have seen just 195.2 total points scored on average in this situation. In other words, Brooks has done a great job of making defensive adjustments. With better effort and a few minor adjustments, this one should finish well under the number tonight. |
|||||||
05-01-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 | Top | 114-101 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder -6.5
This is a very tough spot for the Grizzlies as they are being asked to start a new series on the road on 1 days' rest and preparation time following the biggest moment in franchise history. In other words, get ready for a letdown. Oklahoma City will not be taking the Grizzlies lightly either after losing 3 of 4 to them in the season series. But we shouldn't read too much into the regular season meetings as Kendrick Perkins didn't play in any of those games. He has the strength and experience to defend both Gasol and Randolph. Expect him to start on Gasol, which allows Serge Ibaka, the NBA |
|||||||
04-28-11 | Dallas Mavericks +4.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Mavericks +4.5
Portland is lucky to still be playing. Dallas had the Blazers down 67-44 in the third quarter in Game 4 and let them off the hook. With a chance to close out the series, you can bet Dallas won't let that happen again. "We know what we gotta do. We're a veteran team. If we don't have to play a Game 7, then we don't want to play a Game 7," forward Shawn Marion said. The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games while the Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6. Plus, Dallas is the best road team in the NBA this season and has been deadly in the road underdog role. In fact, it is 15-6 ATS as a road underdog this season and 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. It is winning these games by an average score of 97.5 to 95.9. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 13-32 ATS in their last 45 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Dallas has also thrived following a double-digit win. Consider that the Mavs are 16-6 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season, winning in this situation by an average score of 99.2 to 93.0. Dallas is the more talented and deeper team, and it will be driven tonight by the haunting memories of recent first round exits. Take the Mavs. |
|||||||
04-24-11 | Orlando Magic -125 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 85-88 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Magic pk
Expect the Magic to bounce back strong in Game 4 to even the series. The Magic's Richardson and the Hawks' Pachulia will both miss Sunday's game with suspensions stemming from an altercation late in Game 3. I believe the Hawks will actually miss Pachulia more. The 6-11, 275-pound center has done the best job of defending Dwight Howard. I just don't see the combination of Jason Collins and little-used Etan Thomas being able to contain Howard, which means the Hawks may have to double him more. That also means Orlando will get more open 3-point looks. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss, provided that team has a winning percentage between 60% and 75% and is playing a team with a winning record, are 174-113 ATS since 1996. The Magic are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less while the Hawks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 playoff games as an underdog. Take the Magic. |
|||||||
04-23-11 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 82-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Mavs +4
Dallas is the hands down better team. Its starting lineup is more talented and it's bench is far better. This is not the same Dallas team that has bowed out early in recent NBA playoffs. Expect the Mavs to flex their muscles with a Game 4 victory here. Dallas is 14-6 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season, winning these games by an average score of 98.4 to 96.6. The Mavs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite. What a luxury Dallas has to bring Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, Brendan Haywood and Jose Barea off the bench. Expect them to be the difference in Game 4. |
|||||||
04-19-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic -8.5 | Top | 82-88 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Magic -8.5
Right away I love the fact that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge (straight losses to an opponent), provided their foe is coming off an upset win over a division rival, are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 11.7 points. In addition, Orlando is 15-5 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more under coach Van Gundy. The Magic are winning by an average of 14.0 points in this situation. Atlanta is just 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games in the NBA playoffs, losing these contest by an average of 12.9 points. The Hawks are also 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog while the Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite. It's desperation time for the Magic as they can't afford to fall behind 0-2. Meanwhile, Atlanta already feels like it has accomplished what it set out to do - steal away homecourt advantage. Orlando will want this one more. Lay the points. |
|||||||
04-18-11 | Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 73-94 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on 76ers +9.5
After falling in Game 1 by 8 points, the 76ers will up their level of intensity tonight to try to steal away the homecourt advantage. Philly is the healthier team right now as Miami's Erick Dampier, Mike Miller and Dwayne Wade are all listed as questionable for tonight's game. Wade is dealing with migraines, which will make it very difficult for him to play to his All-Star standards if he is able to go. After Saturday's defeat, coach Doug Collins and veteran Elton Brand talked a lot about driving the ball aggressively to the basket to get to the foul line. The 76ers haven't done a very good job of that against Miami this season but I expect them to make an extra effort to do so this evening. The execution of this game plan will go a long way toward getting us the cover. Philly improved to 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing with triple revenge (3 straight losses to an opponent) with its Game 1 cover and this trend is still in play tonight. The 76ers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. The Heat, meanwhile, are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the 76ers. |
|||||||
04-17-11 | Denver Nuggets +6 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 103-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Nuggets +6
Motivated by back-to-back April defeats to the Thunder, expect Denver to give its division rivals all they want and more tonight. The Nuggets have been a tremendous investment recently, especially when on the road and catching points. The Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. This is the first time this Thunder teams has been expected to win in the postseason. With that comes pressure. The Nuggets won't be feeling nearly as much pressure and should be able to play free and easy as a result. Take the points as Denver has an excellent chance to win Game 1. |
|||||||
04-16-11 | Atlanta Hawks +8.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 103-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Hawks +8.5
Much has been made about Atlanta's 0-6 finish, but it didn't really have much incentive as it was locked into the #5 seed. Also, it shouldn't be ignored that the Hawks played the Spurs to a 7-point game and the Heat to an 8-point game during this skid. Atlanta, which won 3 of 4 against Orlando this season with its lone loss coming by 4 points, has plenty of motivation in this series. You see, Orlando completely embarrassed the Hawks in a 4-game sweep in last year's playoffs. Atlanta was abused from 3-point range in that series, allowing the Magic to make an average of 11.0 3-point shots per game. But consider that the Hawks enter the playoffs allowing opponents to shoot just 33.8 percent from deep (4th in the NBA), and they have held the Magic to 19 of 84 (22.6 percent) from three-point range this season. In addition, the Magic are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Take the points. |
|||||||
04-06-11 | New York Knicks v. Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 | Top | 97-92 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -4.5
Off back-to-back losses, including a butt-kicking at Boston last night, and a double-digit loss to New York in the most recent meeting, the 76ers will be extremely motivated when they hit their home floor this evening. Since losing 9 of 10, the Knicks have managed to bounce back with 4 straight victories. Forgive me if I'm not impressed. They needed OT to beat the Magic in a game in which Jameer Nelson did not play. After that, wins over New Jersey, Cleveland and Toronto won't impress anyone. The Knicks are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. Philly is 25-12 at home on the season with a 6.0-point average margin of victory, and it has been deadly in bounce back spots. The 76ers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Here's the clincher: Philly is 10-2 ATS when out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent this season, winning in this situation by an average of 8.7 points. Take the 76ers. |
|||||||
04-05-11 | Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers -10.5 | Top | 108-87 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -10.5
With a chance to clinch a spot in the playoffs, the Blazers won't take the Warriors lightly tonight, especially since they lost to Golden State in the most recent meeting. The Warriors have lost 8 in a row on the road with those losses coming by an average of 13.4 points. 5 of their last 6 road defeats have all come by 11 points or more. The Blazers have won 9 straight at the Rose Garden by an average of 14.4 points. It is also worth noting that the Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Blazers have a huge advantage on the defensive end and in the paint with Warriors missing the inside presence of Andris Biedrins. Expect a big night from LaMarcus Aldridge and for Portland to dominate the glass as they get the win and cover here. |
|||||||
04-01-11 | Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 93-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +1.5
The Grizzlies are in great form, and I love their chances tonight against a New Orleans team minus leading scorer David West. Having lost both previous meetings to New Orleans this season, the Grizzlies will be lacking no motivation here. The Grizzlies are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus divisional foes, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. The Hornets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. In addition, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Memphis. |
|||||||
03-30-11 | Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 211.5 | Top | 91-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA "Total" Game of the Week on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 211.5
The Warriors and Grizzlies have combined for at least 213 points in each of their last 8 meetings and yet the books opened with an over/under line of 210. In addition, Golden State has been Over this number in each of its last 4 games and Memphis was Over it in its last game. I smell a rat. Naturally, the public is all over the Over, which is precisely where the books want it. I won't hesitate to go against the grain, avoiding what is certainly a bookmaker trap. Golden State has the perception of a high-scoring team, but it hasn't been nearly as good offensively on the road. As a result, the Warriors are 24-14 Under in road games this season. They are also 37-23 Under in a road game when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons. It is also to our benefit that the Warriors are coming off a tiring overtime game last night. That's because the Under is 5-1 in the Warriors' last 6 games when playing without a day of rest. Also, the Under is 16-3 when the Warriors are playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons. Also, Memphis has held 4 of its last 5 foes under the century mark. It has also held its opponents to an average of 87.3 points in its last 4 home games. With 2 full days of rest to gear up for this one, I expect the Grizzlies to be very successful on the defensive end against a tired Warriors squad. We'll pound the Under tonight. |
|||||||
03-23-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets -4 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -4
The fact that Tim Duncan is out is beside the point. The Nuggets have lost each of the season's first 3 meetings with the San Antonio, which means they will be extremely hungry tonight. Trading Carmelo Anthony has lifted a big weight off Denver's shoulders. The team was clearly distracted early on when his future with the team was still up in the air. Now that he's gone Denver is playing free and easy, especially at home. The Nuggets are a perfect 6-0 at home since the All-Star break with those 6 wins coming by an average of 23.3 points. Ty Lawson is really looking to push the ball now that he is running the show, and Denver's defense has picked up. The Nuggets are only allowing 94.7 points per game since the Melo trade - 8.4 below their season mark. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. With a big cushion in the West, the Spurs can afford to be very cautious down the stretch. Denver, meanwhile, would like to jump up and steal the #4 seed from Oklahoma City. "They (OKC) probably have too much of a gap on us," coach George Karl said. "But let's try to scare them. You never know in basketball." Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-10-11 | New York Knicks v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5 | Top | 109-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Mavericks -5.5
This is a letdown spot for the Knicks and a bounce back spot for the Mavs. It will be difficult for the Knicks to bring as much energy needed tonight following such an emotional victory on Melo's buzzer-beater last night. Dallas, meanwhile, will have no trouble getting up for this one after blowing a late 7-point lead and the game to New Orleans. For the books to favor the Mavs by this many points following 4 ATS defeats in a row, knowing the amount of backers New York has, I have to believe odds makers are confident in Dallas tonight. And why shouldn't they be? Dallas has won 16 of 18 meetings in this series, and it holds a big edge in the backcourt with Chauncey Billups still likely out. Dallas is 20-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Lay the points. |
|||||||
03-08-11 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Atlanta Hawks +5.5 | Top | 101-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back home losses to Oklahoma City and New York, and further motivated by a 24-point loss to the Lakers last month, expect Atlanta to give LA all it wants and more tonight. Because LA crushed the Hawks 2 weeks back, it will be much more interested in upcoming games against Miami, Dallas and Orlando. Atlanta has won 3 straight at home against the Lakers with the last 2 wins coming by double digits. In fact, the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. In addition, plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 4 or more consecutive unders, are 55-26 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are only winning by an average of 2.9 points. Also, the Lakers are 2-14 ATS after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 96.8 to 95.4. Pound the Hawks. |
|||||||
03-04-11 | Chicago Bulls +2 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 89-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Bulls +2
After such an emotionally and physically draining comeback victory over the Miami Heat last night, the Magic won't have enough left in the tank to conquer this hungry Bulls squad. Chicago knows how Miami feels, having blown a 17-point halftime lead against Atlanta Wednesday. That loss will have the Bulls extremely motivated this evening. This is an ideal spot to go against Orlando since its starters logged so many minutes last night. In fact, the Magic are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. It hasn't been good practice to fade Chicago following a defeat. That's because the Bulls are an impressive 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss. The Bulls are also 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog and 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that Chicago is a perfect 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Great spot for Chicago. |
|||||||
03-02-11 | Portland Trail Blazers -3 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -3
Off back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing loss to Houston last night, expect the Blazers to take out their frustration on the lowly Kings. A brutal 15-point home loss to Sacramento in January should have the Blazers taking the floor with even more focus this evening. Right away, I love the fact that plays on road favorites out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, following an upset loss at home, are an impressive 80-39 ATS since 1996. Also, plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out to avenge a loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, following an upset loss, are 38-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Portland has won 4 straight on the road. Plus, it has had very little trouble with Sacramento. The Blazers have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, including all 4 at Sacramento by an average score of 105-92 during this span. The Trail Blazers are 25-10-3 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite, 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 games playing without a day of rest and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Kings are a lousy 10-29-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Sacramento and the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings overall. Bet the Blazers. |
|||||||
02-25-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Orlando Magic -7 | Top | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Magic -7
The Magic will be extremely hungry to get back in the win column tonight following a loss to the lowly Kings. A 1-point loss at Oklahoma City last month provides the Magic with added motivation as well. The Thunder gave up a key piece of their team by trading Jeff Green to the Celtics. We're talking about a high energy player who gets the team 15 points per night. Without Green, it allows teams to focus even more attention on Durant and Westbrook. The loss of Nenad Krstic also hurts, especially tonight since Kendrick Perkins isn't expected to be available to guard Dwight Howard. Going to the numbers, we find that plays on any team coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 31-10 ATS since 1996. This system is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 11-2 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are winning these games by an average score of 107.6 to 92.8. Lay the points. |
|||||||
02-23-11 | Atlanta Hawks +3 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 97-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +3
I won't hesitate to get behind the Hawks in this highly motivated spot. Out to avenge an earlier season home loss to Phoenix, and looking to quickly erase the memory of last night's butt-kicking in L.A., expect the Hawks to play with a ton of energy and passion tonight. Even though Atlanta played last night, fatigue won't be an issue following a lengthy layoff prior to that game. Plus, the Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. In addition, the time to back Atlanta has been following a defeat. That's because the Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. It is also worth noting that they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Phoenix has not been able to be trusted in the small chalk recently. In fact, the Suns are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Suns are also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Lastly, it is certainly worth noting that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points with Atlanta tonight. |
|||||||
02-15-11 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Chicago Bulls -9 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Bulls -9
Expect a letdown from Charlotte tonight following a huge blowout win over the two-time defending champion LA Lakers last night. "This is probably the biggest, monumental win for the Bobcats and probably the biggest loss for them," interim coach Paul Silas said. "It was huge." In other words, Charlotte is feeling pretty fat and happy right now. Right away I love the fact that Charlotte is only 4-12 in the second game of back-to-backs this season. Charlotte |
|||||||
02-09-11 | Charlotte Bobcats +4 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +4
Last night we played on a 76ers team that had lost the season's first two meetings with Atlanta. Motivated by those losses, Philly rolled on the road. We'll make a similar play with the Bobcats tonight. Charlotte will be out for blood after losing the season's first two meetings with the Pacers. It's difficult to beat any team three straight times, especially one playing as well as Charlotte. The Bobcats are coming off a huge confidence boosting win over Boston, and they have been a covering machine on the road. In fact, the Bobcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. It's going to be tough for the Pacers to get up for this game tonight after blowing a 14-point lead in last night's loss to Miami. I have a feeling that loss will still be hanging over their head. It has been extremely lucrative to fade the Pacers in back-to-back spots period, as they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. The Bobcats should be the fresher, more focused team tonight. Take the points. |
|||||||
02-08-11 | Philadelphia 76ers +5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 117-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +5
Atlanta won the season's first two meetings by just 3 and 5 points respectively. It will have a difficult time making it 3 in a row against a 76ers team that is playing some ball. Philly has won 6 of 8, and it has played its best against some of the best teams in the league. In fact, Philly is an impressive 10-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season, defeating these foes by an average score of 96.6 to 93.5. The 76ers are also 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses vs. an opponent). They are winning by an average score of 100.2 to 99.6 in these contests. The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Lastly, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, if they are a hot team with 6 or 7 wins in their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 71-38 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points. |
|||||||
02-04-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Boston Celtics -6 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Celtics -6
Boston is at home (where it is 22-3 this season), rested (hasn't played since Tuesday) and out for revenge (lost by 2 at Dallas in season's first meeting). In other words, this is an especially good spot to back the Celtics. The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Mavericks are also just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. The Celtics are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record, 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS loss. Dallas has won 6 games in a row and is coming off a blowout over the Knicks Wednesday and it is getting 6 points? It's clear odds makers want money to roll in on Dallas, but we won't bite. Expect the Celtics' league-leading defense to lead them to a double-digit win tonight. |
|||||||
02-02-11 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets -8 | Top | 90-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Nuggets -8
Off back-to-back embarrassing losses on the road, the Nuggets return home with plenty of motivation to take down a Blazers team they have owned in Denver. The Nuggets are 20-5 at home this season, and they have taken the last five against the Blazers at the Pepsi Center by an average of 14.2 points. Denver even won the season's first home meeting 95-77 with Carmelo Anthony on the sidelines. Anthony will be on the floor tonight, and he is playing well. Denver is 11-0 all-time at home in this series when Anthony scores at least 20 points. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Also, the Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Denver. In addition, Denver is 19-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 112.6 to 99.0. The Nuggets are also 15-4 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 112.1 to 101.1. After such an emotionally and physically draining win over the top team in the NBA (Spurs) last night, the Blazers won't have enough left in the Mile High City this evening. Lay the points. |
|||||||
01-28-11 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Golden State Warriors -4.5 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -4.5
At 13-9, the Warriors have been playing good ball at home all season. I especially expect a strong performance out of them on their home floor tonight following back-to-back home defeats. This is a very tough spot for Charlotte, which is playing its 3rd road game in 4 days. The Bobcats are just 7-14 on the road this season. They are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Golden State is an impressive 24-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons versus teams that are outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game. The Warriors are defeating these teams by an average of 5.9 points. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or fewer and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. Lay the points with this motivated Golden State squad against the road weary Bobcats. |
|||||||
01-21-11 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -3.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a pair of losses to Houston already this season, the Grizzlies will mean business when they take the floor tonight. The Grizzlies have quietly been one of the strongest investments in the league, going 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a defeat. Revenge has also been a strong angle to play in regards to Memphis. Under coach Hollins, the Grizz are 54-36 ATS in revenge games. The Rockets have won 3 in a row, but all 3 of those wins came against the East. Houston is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. the Western Conference while Memphis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. the West. Lay the points. |
|||||||
01-19-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves +7 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Timberwolves +7
The Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season, having won 5 of their last 6 games. But this is precisely the time to go against them as odds makers have purposely overreacted to their recent success to trap the public. Keep in mind that the Clippers haven't been favored by more than 5 points all season. Minnesota won the season's first meeting at home, but didn't show well in a 113-90 loss in LA a month ago. I'll gladly take the Wolves in this revenge spot, considering road underdogs revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, provided they have won 25% or less of their games on the season, are an impressive 61-29 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road meetings in this series. The Clippers are getting way too much respect for their short body of work tonight. Take the points as Minnesota takes the Clipps right down to the wire. |
|||||||
01-14-11 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors -3.5 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -3.5
This is a big letdown spot for the Clippers after an upset win over the Miami Heat in their last game. In addition, this is a big bounce back spot for Golden State off back-to-back defeats. One of those defeats was a double-digit loss to the Clippers, which ensures us the Warriors will be out for revenge this evening. There are also plenty of numbers to support this play in addition to these 3 strong situational factors (letdown, bounce back, revenge). The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. The Warriors are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings at Golden State. We also have another very special trend in our favor. Consider that LAC is 0-8 ATS in road games following a home game in which both it and its opponents topped the century mark over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are losing by an average score of 112.9 to 95.0 in this spot. Lay the points. |
|||||||
01-12-11 | Dallas Mavericks +1 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +1
The Mavs have struggled without Dirk Nowitzki and Caron Butler in the lineup, but I like their chances in Indianapolis tonight. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and with 3 full days to rest and prepare, expect Dallas to bring its "A" game against a Pacers squad that just played last night. The Mavs have been deadly recently when getting plenty of time off. In fact, they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 3 or more days rest. The Mavs have also been deadly against the Pacers, winning 5 straight and 9 of the last 10 in the series. How have the Pacers been when playing back-to-back you ask? They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without rest. The Mavericks are an impressive 50-24-1 ATS in their last 75 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points while the Pacers 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Take Dallas. |
|||||||
01-05-11 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Houston Rockets -6 | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Rockets -6
The Rockets have begun the New Year with back-to-back losses on the road. One of those losses was an embarrassing 100-85 loss at Portland. With a day to rest, and back at home, I expect Houston to have its revenge tonight. It will be extremely difficult for Portland to recover from last night's loss at Dallas. Expect the Blazers to be deflated after blowing a five-point 4th quarter lead. Plus, Portland has had no success in Houston. In fact, it has averaged just 86.4 points while losing 12 of its last 13 there. Portland has struggled on the road in general, losing 6 of its last 7 and 10 of its last 12 away from home. Houston, meanwhile, has won 9 of its last 10 at home. The Rockets are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Lay the points. |
|||||||
12-25-10 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers -2 | Top | 96-80 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Christmas Day *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers -2
The Lakers haven't played since a Dec. 21 embarrassing loss to the Bucks, which can't be sitting well. They'll be ready to go at home on Christmas day to show the Heat they are still the team to beat. The Lakers are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. This is a game where the Heat will really miss a guy like Udonis Haslem alongside Chris Bosh. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard and Erick Dampier just don't have the athleticism to match up well with the LA bigs. Miami has already lost to Dallas twice and Boston twice, so it has certainly struggled with elite teams. I'm laying the points with the Lakers. |
|||||||
12-23-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic -2 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Magic -2
Orlando has been struggling, but it catches the Spurs in a great spot tonight. The Spurs used a lot of energy in last night's comeback win over Denver. They may be able to hang around for a while, but I expect this much fresher Orlando team to pull away in the second half. The Spurs haven't had much luck in Orlando lately, losing their last 2 visits by 12 and 26 points respectively. The Spurs were lucky to win the season's first meeting. They had to rally in the fourth to beat the Magic last month. Fortunately, Orlando is one of the best in the biz when out for revenge. In fact, it is 43-26 ATS in its last 69 games revenging a same season loss, winning by an average score of 101.1 to 94.3 in this situation. Lay the points. |
|||||||
12-17-10 | Utah Jazz v. New Orleans Hornets +1.5 | Top | 71-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +1.5
Chris Paul is sick and tired of hearing about how Deron Williams has his number. I fully expect him to do something about it at home tonight. I'll gladly get behind the Hornets at home, where they are 10-3 this season, in this highly motivated spot. Utah won the first meeting at its place and New Orleans will be out for revenge here tonight. The fact that odds makers have set such a low total says a lot about what they expect to happen. It tells us that they expect New Orleans, which is holding foes to 91.5 ppg at home, to have success slowing down the Jazz. A lower scoring game definitely favors the Hornets here. In fact, under coach Sloan, Utah is just 40-66 ATS in road games when the total is between 185 and 189.5 points. It is losing these games by an average score of 96.0 to 92.4. It is also worth noting that the Jazz are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take the Hornets. |
|||||||
12-14-10 | Toronto Raptors v. Charlotte Bobcats -4.5 | Top | 91-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats -4.5
Expect a major response from the Bobcats at home tonight after such an embarrassing loss to Boston their last time out. The Bobcats have already defeated the Raptors by 5 points in Toronto this season, and they definitely have the edge in this highly motivated spot. The Bobcats have been money in the small chalk, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after being held to less than 75 points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record. It is also important to note that Charlotte is a perfect 8-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 99.8 to 90.5 in this situation. The Bobcats have won 4 of the last 6 in this series by 5 or more points with 3 of those wins coming by at least 13 points. The Raptors are just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points with the Bobcats. |
|||||||
12-10-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns OVER 204.5 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Month on Blazers/Suns OVER 204.5
With the Suns out to avenge Tuesday's loss to Portland, and with the Blazers having just played last night, I love our chances with the Over. We saw 205 total points scored in Tuesday's matchup, and Blazers starting point guard Andre Miller didn't play in that game. He has thrived when playing at Phoenix, scoring 22.8 points and 8.0 assists in his last five visits. Portland is a good defensive team, but it won't be able to bring the same energy to the defensive end tonight after just playing a game last night. In fact, the Over is 5-2 in the Trail Blazers' last 7 games playing on 0 days rest and 9-2 in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Over is 14-3 in the Suns' last 17 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Phoenix is also a perfect 8-0 Over after playing a home game this season. We are seeing 230.4 totals points on average in this situation. Bet the Over. |
|||||||
12-01-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Game of the Month on Timberwolves +10.5
Minnesota hasn't played since Saturday. Off 4 straight losses, expect the rested and prepared Timberwolves to give Dallas a game. This is Dallas' 6th game in 9 days so fatigue is starting to set in at this point. Plus, Dallas will be much more concerned with its next opponent - Utah. History is on our side when you consider that plays against favorites of 10 or more points off 2 or more consecutive home wins, tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days, are 42-16 ATS since 1996. In addition, Dallas is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons, only winning these games by an average score of 101.1 to 100.7. Lastly, the Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Dallas. Take Minnesota and the points. |
|||||||
11-26-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Denver Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 97-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Nuggets -3.5
Denver has the big edge in terms of fresh legs as it hasn't played since Monday. Chicago played both Tuesday and Wednesday with Wednesday's double-OT come from behind win taking a lot out of the Bulls. Denver also has the advantage playing on its home floor where it has won 4 in a row over Chicago by 4 or more points. The last three home wins in this series have all come by double digits. In addition, Denver will be out to avenge a 2-point loss at Chicago earlier this month. The home team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Denver. The Nuggets are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Lay the points. |
|||||||
11-24-10 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +4
Dallas has 4 losses this season, and 2 of those losses have come by 1 and 2 points respectively. This is a Dallas team that will be in just about every game this season because of how solid it is defensively. Dallas has a huge edge on the defensive end tonight. It is only allowing 91.6 ppg this season while OKC is giving up 102.2. The Mavs may be playing back-to-back, but they are a tremendous 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing without rest. Dallas is also 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 road games, and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Conversely, the Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer. The road team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points. |
|||||||
11-23-10 | Detroit Pistons +10 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 84-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +10
Dallas is a very good team, but it doesn't win very many games by double-digits, especially at home. In fact, the Mavs have only posted 1 double-digit win in 7 home games this season. Dallas has had a tough time getting up for lesser opponents, and I expect that to be the case again tonight with a big game against Oklahoma City scheduled for tomorrow night. Looking at this numerically, we find that Dallas is just 1-16 ATS in its last 17 home games when playing against a team with a losing record. It is only defeating these teams by an average score of 101.8 to 99.6. It is also worth noting that Dallas is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points since the beginning of last season. It is only winning these games by an average score of 101.1 to 100.7. The Pistons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. We'll take the Pistons and the points tonight. |
|||||||
11-19-10 | Chicago Bulls +5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 88-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Bulls +5
Dallas is being overvalued at home tonight against a very good Chicago Bulls team. This really comes as no surprise because odds makers gave the Mavs too much respect at home all last season. As a result, the Mavericks are 14-35-3 ATS in their last 52 home games. They are just 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls have been outstanding in this same point spread range on the road, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. In also like the fact that the Bulls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games period. The Bulls have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Dallas. Plus, the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Bulls and the points tonight. |
|||||||
11-17-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons +8 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +8
This is a tough spot for the Lakers playing back-to-back, especially since injuries to Andrew Bynum and Theo Ratliff have depleted their front line depth. Detroit has covered the spread in 6 of its last 7, and it will have the advantage of fresh legs on its home floor tonight. We have already seen this veteran Lakers team start to wear down. It was blowing out its opponents early, but it has either won by 5 or less, or lost, 4 of its last 6 games. The Pistons are an impressive 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take the Pistons and the points. |
|||||||
11-12-10 | Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers +9.5
Despite covering the spread in 4 of its last 5 games, Philly isn't getting the respect it deserves. Dallas has been constantly overvalued at home. As a result, it is just 15-35-1 ATS in its last 51 home games. In addition, it is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, only winning these games by 4.4 points on average. Since the beginning of last season, the Mavs are 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points, only winning by an average score of 101.1 to 100.7 in these games. Adding to my confidence in this play is that fact that Philly is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as an underdog and 6-0 ATS in its last 6 versus the NBA Southwest division. The last time these teams met, Philly won by 11 points. Philly lost the 2 prior meetings, but those losses came by just 2 points each. Take the points with Philly tonight. |
|||||||
11-08-10 | Boston Celtics v. Dallas Mavericks -3.5 | Top | 87-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs -3.5
This is an extremely tough scheduling spot for Boston. Not only are the veteran Celtics playing back-to-back, but they are playing their 5th game in 7 days. As if this situation isn't tough enough, they are playing on the road against one of the best teams in the West. This will be just Dallas' 3rd game in 6 days, and it will be hungry following a loss to Denver. In fact, plays on home favorites off an upset loss, in the first 6 games of the season, if they were a playoff team last season that lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, are 31-10 ATS since 1996, winning by an average of 11.5 points in this spot. The Mavericks are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Mavs. |
|||||||
11-05-10 | Utah Jazz -1 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz -1
After a pair of poor performances to start the season, the Jazz have it going. They have scored 120 and 125 points respectively in their last 2 games, and I like them to run up the score on one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA tonight. Deron Williams gives Utah the huge edge at the all-important point guard spot. Golden State's Stephen Curry is listed as questionable with a bum ankle, and he would lose this matchup even if he was healthy. Utah has won 3 straight against Golden State, and those 3 wins have all come by 9 or more points. Plus, this is a great spot to back the Jazz when you consider that they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more, winning by an average of 5.6 points in this spot. Take Utah. |
|||||||
11-03-10 | Milwaukee Bucks +8 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month (ESPN) on Bucks +8
With both teams playing back-to-back, the more youthful Bucks will have the fresher legs tonight. Milwaukee has been as good as it gets when playing on consecutive nights. In fact, it is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 when playing on back-to-back days, winning by an average score of 100.0 to 95.0. For Boston, returning home after playing a game as a road favorite has been a tough spot. In fact, the Celtics are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games in this situation, only winning them by 3.4 points on average. Conversely, Milwaukee is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games after playing a game as a home favorite, winning by 2.0 points on average in this situation. The Bucks are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including 3-0 ATS in Boston during this span. We'll bet the Bucks plus the points tonight. |
|||||||
10-29-10 | Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Hornets +1.5 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +1.5
New Orleans is not getting the credit it deserves on its home floor tonight. The Hornets were 24-17 at home last season despite playing without star point guard Chris Paul for a big chunk of the season. New Orleans was 28-13 at home the season before with a healthy Paul, and this is what I expect in 2010. Meanwhile, Denver was just 19-22 on the road a season ago. From the perspective of the point spread, I just can't justify taking Denver here. The Nuggets are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. I know they are coming off a big home win, but consider that they are 2-12-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a victory of more than 10 points. The Nuggets are also a lousy 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. When the books projected a close game for Denver last season, it came out on the losing end a lot. In fact, Denver was just 3-12 ATS when the line was +3 to -3 a season ago, losing by an average of 6.2 points in these games. The Nuggets are also currently without 2 big pieces of the puzzle in Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen. Take the Hornets at home tonight. |
|||||||
10-27-10 | Miami Heat v. Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 | Top | 97-87 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +8.5
The Heat have some of the best talent in the league with LeBron James and Chris Bosh joining forces with Dwayne Wade, but it was very apparent last night that it will take these guys some time to mesh. I believe odds makers will be overvaluing the Heat early on, knowing the public fascination with the aforementioned superstars. This could lead to some strong plays, and that is the case tonight. The 76ers made a great hire in Doug Collins, and I fully expect him to have his boys ready to go. The Heat are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Philadelphia. Look for Philly to take the Heat right down to the wire at home tonight. Take the points. |
|||||||
10-26-10 | Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 110-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets +7.5
The odds makers love to overvalue defending champions in their first game of the season, and that is certainly the case here. While the Lakers are raising another championship banner to the rafters, the Rockets will be bound and determined to rain on the parade. Kobe Bryant's minutes are expected to be limited early in the season, and the Lakers will be without Andrew Bynum for another month. Yao Ming's minutes will be limited for Houston, but I do expect him to provide a big lift for the Rockets in his return. These two teams played 4 times last season and they split the two early season meetings. In those games, Houston posted a 10-point win at LA and a 1-point loss at home. With this in mind, I have no doubt that odds maker are giving LA too much respect out of the gate. Take the points as Houston gives the Lakers all they want tonight. |
|||||||
06-17-10 | Boston Celtics +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game 7 Monster *BEST BET* on Celtics +7
This looks like it could be the last chance for Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to win a championship as they are nearing the end of their careers. That will be enough motivation for the Big 3 right there. "It's all-out," Garnett said. "It's for the marbles, it's for everything, all-out. You save nothing. You leave nothing." Kendrick Perkins is out, but Glenn "Big Baby" Davis has shown that he can be very productive, and Rasheed Wallace has the potential for a strong game as well. He got great looks in Game 6. They just didn't go down. My money is on Wallace making the majority of those same shots tonight. Even in an embarrassing Game 6 loss, Boston's defense was still good, holding the Lakers to just 41.8% shooting. We can count on another superb defensive effort from the Celtics, and we can also count on a much better offensive performance. A major key will be Rajon Rondo and his ability to push the pace. If the Celtics can get stops, rebound and outlet the basketball like they did in Game 2, Rondo will have the opportunity to make a lot of plays in the open floor for himself and his teammates. The numbers are in our favor here when you consider that Boston is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 12.3 points in these spots. It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 15-5 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or less under coach Rivers, bouncing back to score 101.1 points in these spots while winning by 1.1 points on average. The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win. I expect a great game that should go right down to the wire tonight. Take the Celtics and the points. |
|||||||
06-15-10 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | Top | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Lakers -6.5
In Game 5, Kobe Bryant was the only player that showed up for the Lakers. The other guys have been called out, and I fully expect them to respond. The Lakers have been unbelievable at home all season, going 43-8 and winning by an average of 8.6 points. They are 9-1 at home in the 2010 playoffs, winning those 9 games by an average of 10.7 points. With this being a do-or-die game, I expect the defending champs to rise to the occasion. Guys like Odom, Artest and Fisher are far too talented to lay an egg for a third straight game. They will definitely benefit from the energy of the home crowd. Plus, history is on our side when you consider that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 1 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 95-50 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation are winning by an average of 9.1 points per game. Expect the Lakers to make a major statement that they can still win this series with a dominant performance tonight. |
|||||||
06-13-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 86-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game 5 *BEST BET* Lakers +2.5
With the extra day giving Andrew Bynum an opportunity to get extra treatment, I expect him to be much more effective than he was in Game 4. But if for some reason he isn't, I still really like the Lakers' chances here. Odom, Artest, Fisher and Bynum all know they must step up to help Bryant and Gasol, and I expect the help to be provided tonight, especially from Odom. Kobe Bryant is the best player on the floor, and I just don't see him letting LA fall behind in this series. If the role players can do their part, Bryant will take care of the rest. The key thing to note here is that the Lakers are 19-6 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996, winning these games by an average score of 99.8 to 93.0. And it is also worth noting that the Lakers are a perfect 9-0 straight up in this situation over the last 3 seasons. Remember that it took a tremendous effort from Boston's bench for the Celtics to win Game 4, and I just don't see those guys being able to provide that same spark tonight. Pound the Lakers! |
|||||||
06-10-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190.5 | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on Lakers/Celtics UNDER 190.5
In the last two games of this series, neither team has shot better than 44.7 percent. I expect the defensive intensity to remain high in Game 4 with the Celtics especially taking things up another notch as this is a must-win game for them. As a result, I expect to see Game 4 come in well Under the number as well. The Lakers are 9-1 Under after allowing 85 points or less this season. Boston is 12-4 Under when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent this season. In addition, the Under is a perfect 4-0 in the Celtics' last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Also, we can't overlook how good of a job the Lakers are doing of getting back on defense to slow down Boston's transition game. Defense wins championships and both of these teams know that. Defense should also keep us Under this number. Best of Luck! |
|||||||
06-08-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Boston Celtics -2.5 | Top | 91-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game 3 *BEST BET* (ABC) on Celtics -2.5
Boston returns home with the momentum and added confidence after their Game 2 win in LA. The Lakers are now just 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings with the Celtics, and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Boston. The Lakers lost Games 3 and 4 in Oklahoma City and Phoenix in these playoffs against teams that aren't nearly as good defensively so it is no stretch to think Boston can take care of business on its home floor tonight. Having just 1 day of rest in between can be tough, especially when traveling across the country, and the Celtics have handled these situations much better than LA. In fact, the Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 1 day of rest while the Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 day of rest. It is also worth noting that Boston has been money in the small chalk as it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. The Celtics are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 NBA Finals games and I look for this impressive trend to continue tonight. Bet Boston! |