Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -1 | Top | 108-92 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Pacers - While Indiana has lost 4 straight and the Hawks have won 6 in a row, I think the value is clearly with the Pacers at basically a pick'em at home. Not only will Indiana be out for revenge after a 10-point loss in Atlanta earlier this season, they are going to be extremely motivated to get a win after getting swept on their 4-game road trip. A couple keys here that favors the Pacers is they are a lot healthier this time around than they were in that first meeting against the Hawks. David West and C.J. Watson are both back from injuries, plus Rodney Stuckey is playing a much bigger role than he was early in the season. The other factor is that Atlanta is in a tough spot after playing Denver yesterday. Not only will the Hawks be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, this will be there 5th game in the last 7 days. Indiana on the other hand comes in off 2 full days of rest. There's also a strong system telling us to fade Atlanta. Road underdogs who are a poor defensive team that is allowing 99+ points/game on the season after allowing 85 points or less in each of their last two are just 5-23 ATS since 1996. That's a dynamite 82% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana! |
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12-05-14 | Houston Rockets v. Minnesota Timberwolves +7 | Top | 114-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Pre-New Years Western Conf Game of the Year on Timberwolves + This is a perfect spot for the Timberwolves to bounce back from that ugly home loss to the 76ers and get a cover against the Rockets. It doesn't get much worse in the NBA right now than losing to Philadelphia, who had started the season 0-17. There's no question oddsmakers have inflated this line, especially with Houston beating the Grizzlies 105-96 in their last game. Not only do I think Minnesota will hang tough with the Rockets, I think they have a great shot at winning this game. The Timberwolves are going to come out highly motivated after that poor showing against a quality team like the Rockets. Houston on the other hand figures to have a difficult time getting up for this game. The Rockets are not only coming off that big game against Memphis, but they have a big home game against the Suns on deck tomorrow. Adding to this is the fact that Houston is still playing short-handed, as Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones are all sidelined with injuries. The Timberwolves will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost to Houston 101-113 back on Nov. 12. Minnesota is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 revenging a home loss to an opponent. Houston on the other hand is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games after having won at least 4 of their last 6 games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Adding to all of this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Rockets. Favorites off a home win against a division rival are just 20-50 ATS on Friday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota! |
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12-03-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Charlotte Hornets +3.5 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Hornets + This is a great spot to back Charlotte, as I look for the Hornets to snap their 9-game losing streak tonight against the Bulls. I expect Charlotte to give max effort here after an ugly 30-point loss at Atlanta last time out, which saw them trail by as many as 44-points. The Hornets have had a full 3-days off to let that loss sit in and the extra rest should pay off big against the Bulls. Chicago comes into this game off a 129-132 double-overtime loss at home last night. Now the Bulls have to turn around and play the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. What really makes this a tough situation for Chicago is they are far from healthy. Taj Gibson has missed the last 5 games and is not expected back, Joakim Noah was injured against Dallas and may not play, rookie Doug McDermott is questionable and I wouldn't be surprised if they kept Derrick Rose's minutes in check after he played a season-high 37 minutes last night. The Bulls have lost each of their last 3 in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and are just 1-4 ATS in this spot over their last 5. Chicago is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when the starting 5 players combined for more than 160 minutes the previous game. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 versus the Central division. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (30-6) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Chicago! |
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12-02-14 | Portland Trail Blazers -3 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 105-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Trail Blazers - The Trail Blazers are showing great value here as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Nuggets. Portland has already taken each of the first two games in the series this season. In a span of just 3 days they beat Denver 116-100 at home and 130-113 on the road. The Trail Blazers have now won 6 straight in the series. Defensively the Nuggets had no answer for Portland in those first two games and it's hard to imagine they will be at their best on that side of the ball given that they will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, following yesterday's 103-101 win at Utah. Denver is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with no rest. It's also worth noting that the Trail Blazers have won 4 straight on the road where they are 4-2 ATS this season. Adding to all of this is a big time system telling us to fade the Nuggets. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a loss versus an opponent and off a road win by 3 points or less are 23-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 82% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland! |
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11-21-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +9 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 83-124 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Bucks + Milwaukee is showing tremendous value as a 9-point dog against the Raptors this season. Despite the fact that the Bucks are 9-3 ATS this season, they are still being undervalued based on how bad they have been in years past. Milwaukee hasn't just been covering of late, they have been winning games outright. The Bucks have won 5 of their last 6, three of which had them listed as the underdog. They have just two losses all season by more than 9-points. Not only am I big on Milwaukee right now, but this is a perfect scenario to fade the Raptors. Toronto is certainly feeling good about themselves after their 9-2 start to the season, which is going to make it easy for them to look past this contest to tomorrow's huge showdown against the Cavaliers, who everyone has circled on their calendar early. This is a similar spot to when the Raptors hosted the Magic prior to a big game against the Bulls on TNT. Toronto was fortunate to leave with a 104-100 win against Orlando, as they trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter. The Raptors are just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record and we find a great system in play on the Bucks. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a good defensive team (holding opponents to 41.5%-43.5% shooting) against a poor defensive team (45.5%-47.5%) are 39-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee! |
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11-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 | Top | 89-85 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Game of Month on Clippers - The Clippers are showing great value here as a small home favorite. Los Angeles comes into this season expecting to contend for a title and will be out to make a statement against the defending champs. The Spurs have struggled out of the gate and are clearly being overvalued by the books. San Antonio is just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. They have especially struggled in their two road games, losing at Phoenix 89-94 and at Houston 81-98. Part of the problem for the Spurs is they are not 100%. They are missing a key piece of their offense in Patty Mills along with starting center Tiago Spiltter. Key reserve, Marco Belinelli is also questionable. It's also worth noting that the offense just isn't clicking right now for San Antonio. They come in ranked in the bottom 3rd in scoring (92.8 ppg), field goal percentage (43.2%), 3-point percentage (32.5%) and turnovers (18.2). While the Spurs are struggling, Los Angeles comes in off their best showing of the season in a 106-102 home win over the Trail Blazers. The Clippers have scored at least 100 points in three straight and have shot no worse than 46.3% from the field during this stretch. With the advantage of playing at home, I look for LA to dictate the tempo and have no problem winning here by at least 3 points. There's a nice system in play favoring the Clippers. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have +/- 3 points/game differential against an opponent that is -3 to -7 points/game differential, after 2 straight games where both teams score 100 or more points are 23-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-07-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Cavaliers - I believe this is the perfect spot to jump on the Cavaliers, who are a surprising 1-3 to start the season. It's been a big wake-up call for a lot of these Cleveland players, who simply thought adding LeBron James was going to make them the best team in the league. I'm expecting these guys to come together and give their best effort of the season tonight against the Nuggets. Denver is the perfect opponent for the Cavaliers to get back on track. The Nuggets come in having lost 3 straight, including a 11-point loss to a depleted Thunder team and back-to-back defeats against the Kings. For Denver to lose at home to Sacramento on Monday and turn around and play them again on Wednesday and get embarrassed by 22-points really says a lot about this team. That's typically a spot where a team fights back and the Nuggets laid down. Two of the biggest problems for Cleveland has been their lack of sharing the basketball offensively and a lack of effort defensively. The Cavaliers had just 6 assists in their loss to Utah. Six! It's amazing that they were as close as they were. It just goes to show how much talent they have. Luckily both of these things can be changed. I look for Kyrie Irving to be more of a facilitator and the defensive intensity to pick up in a nationally televised game on ESPN. Take the Cavaliers! |
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06-08-14 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Heat + The Heat were in prime position to win and cover in Game 1 before James had to exit due to cramping. The goods is that injury should be long gone by the time these two teams tip-off tonight. I look for James to come out and make a statement and for the Heat to even up the series at 1-1. Miami ended up allowing the Spurs to score 110 points, but their defense really fell apart without James on the floor. One of the key things to notice is that the Heat forced San Antonio into 22 turnovers, which ended up in a lot of easy baskets in transition. I expect more of the same in Game, as Miami is going to do everything they can to even up the series at 1-1. Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points and 23-9 in their last 34 games after a loss by 10+ points. That's a 76% (32-10) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199 | Top | 95-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on the UNDER The books have set the total way too high for Game 1. Both teams understand the importance of each game and that's going to lead to max effort on the defensive end. Miami has the perimeter defense to make things difficult for the Spurs offensively and San Antonio is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to defending LeBron James. You also have to factor in the nerves that come with playing in the Finals and the long layoff from the conference finals will likely have both teams out of sync offensively early on. If you look back at last year's Finals matchup between these two teams, they combined for just 180 points in Game 1. They didn't score more than 190 points in the series until Game 4. It's also worth noting that the total for Game 1 last year was just 190 points. In fact the highest total set for any game in the series was 191.5 points. The value is clearly on the under at 199. The UNDER is 36-13 (73.5%) for road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. The UNDER is also 24-6 (80%) for all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.Take the UNDER! |
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05-30-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7.5 | Top | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Pacers/Heat NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - The Pacers put everything on the line to win Game 5 at home and I just don't see them being able to deliver a similar performance on the road. Miami understands how important it is to end the series on their home floor and not have to go back to Indiana for a Game 7. Considering how the Heat dominated both games at American Airlines Arena in Game 3 (99-87) and Game 4 (102-90), I don't have a problem laying the points. Both of these teams are great on the defensive end, but the big difference is that the Heat have players who can score no matter who is defending them. Indiana on the other hand is limited offensively and I look for them to really struggle to get anything going with Miami 100% focused on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we had a similar outcome to last year's Game 7 in Miami in the Conference Finals, where the Heat destroyed Indiana 99-76. Miami is 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games revenging a loss to an opponent, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Indiana on the other hand is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after a win by 6-points or less. That's a solid 68% (52-24) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
5* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder - It's do or die for the Thunder and I look for them to get the job done at home with or without Ibaka. Just the fact that Ibaka is trying to fight through the pain to play, should serve as a huge emotional lift for the rest of the Thunder. The big key here is that Oklahoma City will be playing at home and should get more out of their role players on the offensive side of the ball. I would also expect to see a better defensive effort than what the Thunder displayed in the first two games. Kevin Durant is also due for a big game and I look for him to deliver when his team needs him the most. Keep in mind that the Thunder won both regular season matchups at home without much problem. They won by 8 in November and 12 in early April. Going back over the previous 3 seasons, Oklahoma City is 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Spurs. The Thunder are 18-8 in their last 26 home games revenging a loss, 13-4 in their last 17 after allowing 105+ in each of their last two games and 20-7 in their last 27 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4. That's a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER While the Heat and Pacers combined to score 203 points and crush the total of 182 in Game 1, I'm not expecting that to keep up. It's not uncommon for the first game of a series to be high-scoring. Both teams shot better than 51% from the field in the first game, which won't hold up. Miami is only allowing 93.7 points in the playoffs and Indiana is only giving up 90.3 in the postseason. With Miami desperately needing a win to fall behind 0-2 and Indiana looking to make sure they leave with the homecourt advantage in tact, I look for both teams to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 85 points. Prior to the offensive explosion in Game 1, these two teams had scored fewer than 185 points in 7 of their 8 previous matchups, including each of the previous 3 at Indiana. The UNDER is 30-17 in the Pacers last 47 games off a double-digit home win, 33-13 in their last 46 games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 and 45-27 in the Heat's last 72 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a strong 65% system. Take the UNDER! |
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05-14-14 | PORTLAND GM5 v. SAN ANTONIO GM5 -7.5 | Top | 82-104 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Spurs - The Trail Blazers may have kept the series going with a win at home in Game 4, but I strongly believe their season will come to an end tonight. As you would expect from a team with a 3-0 lead, the Spurs weren't able to match to the intensity of Portland. Knowing that there's a good chance the Clippers/Thunder series will be going to a Game 7, I look for San Antonio to be all business tonight, as their veterans could use the extra rest. San Antonio dominated the first three games of this series, winning all three by at least 15 points and I expect a similar result tonight. The Spurs will be much more focused on the defensive end after losing Game 4 and their offensive execution should be back to what we saw in Game 1, 2 and 3. The Spurs are 33-16 ATS off double-digit loss as a road favorite, while the Trail Blazers are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games off a win by double-digits. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 118-72 ATS since 1996. That's a strong 62% long-term system in favor of the Spurs! |
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05-11-14 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 -5 | Top | 99-101 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Game of the Month on Clippers - |
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05-08-14 | Brooklyn Nets +8 v. Miami Heat | Top | 82-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets + I wasn't surprised at all to see the Heat dominate Game 1, as Miami had a huge rest advantage and the Nets were coming off that huge Game 7 road win over the Raptors. After a day to regroup and really focus in on the Heat, I expect Brooklyn to look like a completely different team in Game 2. Not only do I think the Nets will keep it close enough to cover, but they have a great shot at winning this game outright. One of the reasons the Nets were able to have success against the Heat during the regular season, is they slowed the game down and really made Miami work for their offense. That wasn't the case in Game 1, but I'm confident they will execute their game plan better tonight. Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout loss by 15 or more points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that has won 60% or more of their home games, while the Heat are a mere 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team that has won less than 40% of their road games. Combined that's a 76.5% (39-12) system in favor of the Nets! |
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05-07-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM2 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM2 -5.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Western Conference Game of the Year on Thunder - Forget what happened in Game 1. The Clippers, mainly Chris Paul, caught fire in the opener and Oklahoma City was ice-cold and turned the ball over 17 times. Los Angeles shot 54.9% from the field and a staggering 51.7% from behind the 3-point line. Paul was 12 of 14 (8-9 3pts) for 32 points. One of the key things that got overlooked is the Thunder kept Blake Griffin in check for the most part, as he was just 7 of 16 from the field. The home team has dominated the second round of the NBA playoffs over the years and tonight's matchup also falls into the zig-zag theory. Another thing to keep in mind is that all four regular season games were decided by 6 or more points. This is a big letdown spot for the Clippers and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Oklahoma City returned the favor and won here by double-digits. The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games after a combined score of 215 or more, 50-29 ATS in their last 79 off a home loss and 17-7 in their last 24 home games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite. Explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 152-82 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Thunder! |
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05-02-14 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Trail Blazers - I look for the Trail Blazers to close out the series at home tonight, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point favorite. I wasn't surprised to see the Rockets avoid elimination at home, but I just don't see Houston being able to play at the level in Portland. The Trail Blazers only lost that game by 10-points, which is pretty shocking considering they only got 8-points out of their All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. The same guy that came into that contest averaging 35.3 ppg in the series. I look for Aldridge to bounce back in style and for the rest of the players to continue to play well. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss to an opponent of 10 or more points in a matchup of two good teams are 118-70 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Trail Blazers! Adding to this is the fact that Houston is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after a win by 10 or more points and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 more consecutive games! |
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05-01-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 188 | Top | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 54 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Pacers UNDER The fate of the Pacers season rest on this game and I expect their defense to show up after allowing the Hawks to shoot 50% from the field in Game 5. Keep in mind that Indiana had held Atlanta under 40% shooting in each of the previous three games and all three of those contests finished under the total. In the two games in this series played at Atlanta, the most these two teams have combined to score is just 183 points. In fact, each of the last 5 meetings, including the regular season, have all been extremely low scoring (184 or less) when these two teams play at Philips Arena. It doesn't come as a huge surprise, as the UNDER is 21-9 in the Hawks last 30 home games against good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 43% or less shooting. The UNDER is also 16-5 in Atlanta's last 21 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams with a winning record. These two massive trends combine to form a huge 73% (37-14) system in favor of the UNDER! |
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04-22-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5 | Top | 101-99 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Bulls - The Bulls let Game 1 get away from them, as they managed to blow a 13-point second half lead. Even with the loss, I still feel like Chicago is the better team and I fully expect them to bounce back with a dominating performance in Game 2. The Wizards will be content with going back to Washington tied 1-1, which will make it difficult for them to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one. I'm also confident the Bulls won't allow the Wizards to top 100 points and shoot 48.6% from the field like they did in Game 1. No team is better on the defensive end than Chicago. Tom Thibodeau and his staff will make the proper adjustments. Keep in mind that in the final regular season meeting the Bulls held Washington to just 78 points on 39.5% shooting. Few teams are as good as the Bulls at bouncing back from a loss. Chicago is 25-15 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season and 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games off a home loss. The Bulls are also a dominant 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 100 or more points in their last contest! |
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04-21-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 | Top | 98-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Game of the Year on Clippers - The Warriors stunned the Clippers in Game 1 of the series, as they came away with a 109-105 road win. However, I'm not convinced Golden State will be able to match that performance in Game 2. Blake Griffin played just 19 minutes because of foul trouble. Griffin is the most important player for Los Angeles and not having him on the floor completely changed the dynamics of that game. One of the big advantages the Clippers have in this series with the Warriors missing Andrew Bogut is their size. The fact that Griffin was able to score 16 points with 3 rebounds and 3 assists in such a limited amount of time, really says a lot about the impact he can have on the game. Not only can we expect Griffin to dominate in Game 2, but Jamal Crawford figures to play a bigger role after going just 2-11 from the field in 22 minutes off the bench.
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04-19-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -3 | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Vegas Insider on Raptors - The Raptors are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is getting a little too much love right now. The Nets were not a great team away from home. They finished just 16-25 straight up on the road and were a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7. Toronto has won 8 of their last 10 home games and are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team that has won less than 40% of their games on the road. Toronto lost at home in the first meeting 100-102, but they came back and crushed the Nets at the Air Canada Centre 96-80 back in early January. Brooklyn won the final matchup between these two teams during the regular season by a score of just 101-97 at home. Toronto is 45-29 ATS over the last 3 seasons revenging a road loss. The Raptors were stronger both offensively and defensively during the regular season. Brooklyn ranked just 21st in scoring (98.5 ppg) and were 11th in points allowed (99.5 ppg). Toronto on the other hand ranked 13th in scoring (101.3 ppg) and 7th in points allowed (98.0). One of the reasons I think we are getting such great value on the Raptors is they went just 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games, including back-to-back non-covers to close out the regular season. Toronto is a dominant 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. |
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04-09-14 | Chicago Bulls -3 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 102-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Bulls - |
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03-24-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Memphis Grizzlies -8 | Top | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies -
Minnesota is playing in a very tough spot. The Timberwolves just lost at home against Phoenix last night, and now they have to try to avoid their third straight loss by playing on the road in the second half of a back-to-back situation where they will face the Memphis Grizzlies. Added to that is the fact that Memphis has been on fire, winning nine of its last 12 games. The biggest problem for Minnesota this season has been its defense. Minnesota has lost three of its last five games, and four of those five games resulted in losses against the spread. During that stretch the Timberwolves have surrendered an average of 117 points per game. Meanwhile, Memphis comes into this matchup holding opponents to a mere 84.8 points per game over its last five games. These teams are headed in opposite directions down the stretch, and the Grizzlies should have no problem picking up a big win tonight. This matchup fits into a system to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Minnesota when they are coming off a home loss, and trying to revenge a home loss by their opponent. These teams met in Minnesota earlier this season and it was Memphis that picked up a four-point win. This system has a 119-76 (61%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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03-16-14 | Charlotte Bobcats -6 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference No Doubt Rout of the Month on Bobcats -
The Bobcats are up against one of the league's worst teams tonight, and they should have no problem covering a single-digit number against them. Charlotte has won three straight coming into this matchup, and five of their last six. Meanwhile, the Bucks have lost six of their last seven games, and they are showing no signs of life as the regular season unwinds. Not only are the Bucks on a bad losing streak, they are also playing in a very tough back-to-back situation. Milwaukee was just on the road yesterday against New York, and now they have to immediately travel home to play host to the Bobcats. Playing in a back-to-back situation is tough on any team, but I expect it to really take its toll on this Bucks team that looks like they have thrown in the towel on their season. You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee when they are playing in a double revenge situation having lost their last two games against their opponent, and they are coming into the matchup off of two or more consecutive road losses. This system identifies favorites that are being undervalued. It has resulted in a 117-67 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-12-14 | New York Knicks -4.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 116-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year on Knicks -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. The New York Knicks are playing for a season best fifth consecutive win. Almost surprisingly, the Knicks are just 3.5 games back on Atlanta for the eighth and final seed in the playoffs. With the season winding down this is a motivated team that will be hungry for a win against a Boston team that is not far behind them in the conference standings. Boston is playing in a tough spot after losing on the road just last night to Indiana. Now they have to play in a tough back-to-back situation against a red hot and well rested Knicks team. A bad team like the Celtics usually does not fare well in these situations. Add in the fact that New York is averaging 108.2 points per game over its last five games while Boston is allowing 99.8 points per game during that stretch and we have a blowout in the making. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system finds home underdogs the oddsmakers have overvalued. It has resulted in a 64-27 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-10-14 | Washington Wizards +7 v. Miami Heat | Top | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards +
The Miami Heat are playing in a very tough spot tonight. First of all, the Heat have lost three consecutive games coming into this matchup. The Heat just played yesterday in Chicago in a losing effort against the Bulls. Now they are tasked with returning home to host the Wizards in a back-to-back situation when Washington is coming into this game with a day of rest. Washington is one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. The Wizards have won eight of their last night games, including five consecutive on the road. Washington is averaging 115.6 points per game over their last five games, and they are averaging 104.7 points per game against division opponents. The defense has really stepped up in those division games, allowing a mere 96 points per game. You should play against home teams like Miami when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are playing on back-to-back days. This system is 99-50 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Washington when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game and are facing a defense allowing the same number of points aver 42 or more games, and that road team has scored 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 48-17 (74%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-08-14 | Washington Wizards -8.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 114-107 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Wizards -
Milwaukee is the worst team in the league. They have allowed opponents 102.3 points per game this season, while the offense has averaged a mere 92.8 points per game when playing at home. Washington is a very good team with an explosive offense, and the Wizards have no business being a single-digit favorite. Washington has averaged 115.8 points per game over their last five games and they will have no problem picking up a double-digit win today. The Bucks come into this matchup with a 7-25 straight up record at home, and a 12-20 ATS record in those games. Washington on the other hand has been a great team to back on the road this season with a 22-8 ATS record. Washington is also the hot team coming into this matchup. The Wizards have won seven of their last eight games, posting a 6-2 record against the spread. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Bucks. You should play against home underdogs like Milwaukee when they have lost 15 or more of their last 20 games and they have won 25 percent of their games or less on the season, and they are facing a team with a winning record. This system has an 80-38 (68%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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02-28-14 | Golden State Warriors -5.5 v. New York Knicks | Top | 126-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
5* Blowout Game of the Week on Warriors -
The New York Knicks are playing in an incredibly difficult spot tonight when they play host to the Golden State Warriors. New York was crushed last night by the Miami Heat, now they have to travel back home for the second half of a back-to-back to take on one of the hottest teams in the league. The Golden State Warriors have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup. The Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost 10 of their last 12 games, and they have surrendered 107 points per game over their last five games. The Warriors on the other hand have stepped things up on the defensive end of the court, allowing a mere 95.2 points per game over their last five games. Golden State has had no problem scoring this season with their 103 point per game scoring average, and against a soft defense like the Knicks that number can only get better tonight. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Golden State when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more, and they are playing against a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has cashed in a 56-23 (71%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-26-14 | Golden State Warriors -3 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 83-103 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Month on Golden State Warriors -
The Chicago Bulls are in a tough spot tonight after playing on the road against Atlanta yesterday. This will be Chicago's third game in the last four days. Typically the first thing to go for a tired team is its defense, and unfortunately for Chicago, the defense is the only thing that has allowed them to remain competitive this season. Golden State has been playing extremely well recently. The Warriors have won five of their last six games with the only loss during that stretch coming by a single point against Miami. Over their last five games the Warriors have averaged 102 points per game, while surrendering a mere 96.8 points per game. Golden State's defense should have no problem shutting down this Bulls team that averages just 92.8 points per game. This matchup fits into a system to fade Chicago. You should play against home teams when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road win. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have overvalued, and it has resulted in a 90-48 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-24-14 | Dallas Mavericks -3.5 v. New York Knicks | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Dallas Mavericks -
The New York Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost eight of their last 10 games, and have failed to cover the spread in seven of those 10 matchups. New York has surrendered 106.2 points per game over its last five games which is very telling about their lack of effort recently. The Mavericks are one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won eight of their last 10 games. They are facing a Knicks team that is 2-10 ATS in home games when facing a non-conference opponent this season. The Knicks are also 9-20 ATS as an underdog, and 1-9 ATS as a home underdog this year. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have proved to be a great team to back when playing on the road. They are 20-10 ATS, and should easily improve on that number today. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Mavericks. You should play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Dallas when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more and they are playing a poor defensive team that has surrendered 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 55-23 (71%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-19-14 | Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 196 | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Magic/Cavaliers OVER
This matchup features two very poor defensive teams, and two offenses that have the ability to catch fire. The value in this matchup is clearly going to be on the over. Orlando is surrendering 102.3 points per game on the road this season. The Cavaliers have allowed an average of 102 points per game overall. Neither of these teams has done a lot of scoring this year, and I think that is the biggest reason for such a low total. That will change tonight since the competition is soft both ways. For a tired team the first thing to go is usually the defense. The Cavaliers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation. I expect their defense to be even worse than normal for this game. Orlando is also playing in a back-to-back after losing on the road against Milwaukee last night in a game they surrendered 104 points. The Cavaliers have a history of going over the total against Southeast division teams. The over has a 5-1 record in their last six games against that division, and it is 11-3 in Cleveland's last 14 games against a team with a losing record. For Orlando, the over is 43-26 the last three seasons when they are revenging a road loss to their opponent. With two soft defenses playing in a tough back-to-back situation, I expect to see a lot of points going on the board tonight. |
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02-12-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -8 | Top | 117-122 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA First Half Game of the Year on Clippers -
The Portland Trailblazers are falling apart, and I think they are already looking forward to regrouping during the All-Star break. The Blazers have lost five of their last eight games, and they have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games. Portland's defense has always been soft, but they have been saved by an offense averaging close to 108 points per game. They seem to have lost the scoring touch, failing to reach triple digits in five of their last eight games. The Clippers are coming off impressive back-to-back wins at home. They have had no problem scoring points recently, averaging 114 points per game over their last five games. The Clippers have been dangerously good at home all season, posting a 22-4 record. With Portland struggling like they have been, I just don't see how the Blazers can come into Los Angeles and play a close game against one of the best teams in the league. This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Clippers. You should play on a team averaging 102 points per game or more like Los Angeles when they have scored 100 points or more in four straight games, and they are playing a horrible defensive team that is allowing over 102 points per game on the season. This system has a 99-62 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-05-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Houston Rockets -7.5 | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Blowout of the Month on Rockets -
The Phoenix Suns are playing in a tough back-to-back situation after losing at home last night to the Chicago Bulls. Now they are traveling to Houston where they will face a Rockets team that is looking for its fourth consecutive win. Houston is playing on three days of rest, so they should be well prepared to face the Suns. The Rockets have been a very dangerous team on their home court. They have a 20-7 record, and are averaging 105.7 points per game for their fans. They have the luxury of facing a very soft defense in this matchup. The Suns are allowing 101.3 points per game this season, and playing in a back-to-back situation against an outstanding offensive team like Houston makes this matchup scream blowout. This game fits into a very profitable system backing the Rockets. You should play on home teams like Houston when they are averaging 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game, and they are facing an average pressure defense that has forced 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has a 97-60 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-03-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards OVER 205.5 | Top | 90-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Wizards OVER
The Portland Trailblazers are one of the highest scoring teams in the league this season. They are averaging 108.3 points per game overall, and when playing on the road that number increases to 108.7 points per game. They are also a very soft defensive team that has allowed 105.1 points per game on the road. Their high scoring and poor defensive play are a big reason the over is such an easy call in this matchup with the Wizards. Washington comes into this matchup averaging just over 100 points per game at home. I think they have a lot of potential to exceed there scoring average since they will be facing a soft defense in this game. Portland is allowing 103.4 points per game overall against opponents whose scoring average is 100.8 points per game. When the Trailblazers are playing on the road that number gets even worse. The over is 20-6 in Portland's road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last 2 seasons. The over is also 13-3 in Washington's home games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by three or more points per game. These two angles combined for a 33-9 (79%) record in favor of the over. |
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01-30-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors -5.5 | Top | 92-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on Warriors -
This game has blowout written all over it. Golden State has played extremely well against division opponents this season. They have a 6-3 record, and the Warriors have the luxury of playing host in this matchup with the Clippers. Golden State is averaging 104.8 points per game at home this season, and they should score at will against a Clippers defense that has surrendered 103.9 points per game against division opponents. The rest profile also favors Golden State in this matchup. They are coming off a day of rest as they prepare for their fifth consecutive home game. The Clippers have had a crazy schedule playing seven straight on the road before returning home last night to face Washington. Now they are playing in a back-to-back situation as they head north to face the Warriors tonight. This will be the Clippers fifth game in the past seven days. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on home teams like Golden State after 42 or more games in the season when they are an average ball handling team committing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers versus an average pressure defense that is forcing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game. This matchup identifies home teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 94-59 (61%) record against the spread. |
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01-29-14 | Philadelphia 76ers +4 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 95-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month on 76ers +
The wrong team appears to be favored in this game. Boston is playing in a tough back-to-back situation after getting blown out last night on the road against New York. Philadelphia on the other hand is coming into this matchup with a day of rest. The 76ers offense gives them a big advantage in this game. They are averaging 101.4 points per game against division opponents, while Boston comes into this matchup averaging a mere 91.7 points in division games. The Celtics are struggling just like the 76ers right now, and with the rest profiles favoring Philadelphia it looks like they catch the first break. Boston has lost four of its last five games, scoring a mere 89.8 points per game while allowing over 100 points per game during that stretch. The 76ers might also be 1-4 in their last five, but it has not been from a lack of offense. They are scoring 101.6 points per game during their last five games. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the 76ers. You should play on road teams like Philadelphia after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game, and they are playing a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game. This system is 80-26 (76%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Boston has not done a good job of protecting their home court, and playing without rest makes Philadelphia an easy call in this game. |
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01-27-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz -6 | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider of the Month on Utah Jazz -
The Sacramento Kings have not played well when they are completely healthy, so I do not like their chances tonight when they will try to avoid a fourth straight loss. The Kings will be visiting the Utah Jazz, and things don't look good since both DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay are listed as doubtful for this matchup. Sacramento already struggles in road games with a 6-13 record and without Cousins and Gay the Utah Jazz should win this game in a blowout. Utah will have no problem scoring points as they face one of the league's worst defenses. The Kings have surrendered 106.7 points per game on the road this season. Over its last five games Sacramento has allowed 113 points per game. That puts them in a tough spot tonight against a Jazz team that has a 6-2 record at home in their last eight games. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Jazz. You should play against road teams like Sacramento when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are a bad team that has won 25 to 40 percent of its games on the season playing another team with a losing record. This system is 48-18 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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01-25-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Denver Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 96-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
5* Bailout Game of the Month on Nuggets +
Denver is playing in the perfect spot to pull off an upset over Indiana. The Pacers are playing their fourth consecutive road game, and their fourth game in the last seven days. That is a lot of travel, and the fact that Indiana is also playing in a back-to-back situation adds even more value to the Nuggets. With the Nuggets playing the host role in this matchup they are an easy call tonight. I expect the wear and tear of Indiana's road trip to catch up with them tonight. The Nuggets are a very high scoring and uptempo team, and combined with the altitude and facing a tired team like the Pacers that gives them a big advantage in this matchup. Denver averages 103.4 points per game and they are poised to put up another big number today. Over their last five games the Pacers have surrendered an average of 102 points per game. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Pacers. You should play against a team like Indiana when they average 98 to 102 points per game against a team allowing 102 points per game or more when they are coming off a matchup with a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games. This system identifies potentially tired defenses and has resulted in a 72-35 (67%) record against the spread. |
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01-24-14 | Washington Wizards v. Phoenix Suns OVER 207 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Wizards/Suns OVER 207
This total is set far too low given how well these teams have been playing on offense recently. Over their last five games the Wizards are averaging 105.2 points per game. The Suns have also been on a scoring binge averaging 113 points per game over their last five games. These teams have an 11-3 record in favor of the over in their last 14 games combined. Both offenses are playing great right now, but both of these defenses have been horrible. Washington has surrendered 101.2 points per game over their last five games, and I think that number will only get worse against a high scoring team like the Suns. Phoenix has had a notoriously bad defense all season, but somehow they have managed to play worse than average recently allowing 105 points per game over their last five games. The over is 13-2 in the Suns last 15 home games against opponents who attempt 18 or more three point shots per game. The over is also 13-5 when the Suns are playing against a team with a losing record this season. You should play the over when the total is 200 points or more and the road team is coming off a loss by three points or less and their opponent has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. The over has a 54-23 (70%) record in this situation. |
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01-22-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
5* Blowout Game of the Month on Spurs -
The Thunder have played a brutal schedule recently, and it will catch up with them today against the Spurs. Oklahoma City is playing in a back-to-back situation after making a late comeback last night against Portland. It was very obvious that the wear and tear of their recent schedule is catching up with them. The Thunder are now playing their fifth game in the past seven days. The Spurs on the other hand are coming into this matchup playing on two days of rest, and have the benefit of home court advantage. San Antonio has won seven of their last eight games. They are one of the toughest home teams in the league, and I don't see the Thunder keeping pace with their high scoring offense in this game. The Spurs are averaging 105.3 points per game at home. They also have a very underrated defense that is surrendering 96.6 points per game this season. The Thunder take a hit in production when playing on the road. They average 2.2 points per game less, while the defense is surrendering 1.2 points per game more. The Spurs have a 38-20 ATS record when playing only their second game in the last five days. They are also 17-6 ATS when coming off a game making 55 percent or more of their shot attempts. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team has also been the favorite, and they have posted a 6-1 ATS record. With the Spurs playing at home with two days of rest, and the Thunder playing in a back-to-back situation this game has blowout written all over it. |
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01-21-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
5* Western Conf. Game of the Month on OKC Thunder -
The Thunder have a lot to play for in this game, and I like their chances to pick up a big win on their home court. First place in the Northwest Division is on the line, and tonight Portland will run into a red hot Thunder team and the league's leading scorer. Kevin Durant is riding seven consecutive 30-point performances as Oklahoma City tries for their fourth consecutive win. The Trail Blazers are playing in a back-to-back situation after getting crushed by Houston last night. It was a 13-point loss for Portland, and I expect them to struggle again against this Thunder team that is 18-3 at home this season. Oklahoma City will also have the revenge factor on their side. Portland squeaked off a four point win the last time these teams met, and with a day of rest coming into this game I expect the Thunder to easily get that revenge. The Trail Blazers are a very soft team defensively. They surrender an average of 104.2 points per game on the road this season. Oklahoma city is 53-32 against poor pressure defenses that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. They are also 40-25 ATS when coming off a performance scoring 105 or more points in their last outing. The Thunder have dominated the head-to-head series between these teams posting a 6-3 ATS record over the last three seasons. |
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01-13-14 | Houston Rockets -5.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on the Rockets -
The Celtics are in a horrible slump right now. They have lost 11 of their last 12 games. Boston is coming off a five game road trip, and I think they will have a bad letdown performance in their first game back home. This will be Boston |
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01-11-14 | New York Knicks -4.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
5* Atlantic Division Game of the Month on Knicks -
The Knicks have been on fire in the New Year, and this line is giving far too much credit to Philadelphia. New York has won four of their last five games straight up, and covered the spread in all five of those games. Philadelphia on the other hand has lost three in a row both straight up and against the spread. The 76ers are showing no signs of life, while New York does not even begin to resemble the team that lost 13 of their first 16 games this season. The Knicks should be able to score at-will against this soft 76ers defense. Philadelphia is allowing an average of 111.2 points per game this season, and they get no benefit from home court advantage where they have surrendered 111.9 points per game. The Knicks defense on the other hand has been solid, especially recently. Over their last five games New York has held its opponents to a mere 92 points per game. The Knicks have been a good team to back on the road recently. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games when their opponent has a losing record at home. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when playing with a day of rest. Philadelphia is playing in a back-to-back situation after getting blown out by a double-digit margin at home last night against Detroit. |
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01-08-14 | Detroit Pistons +5 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 91-112 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Pistons +
Toronto is coming off back-to-back losses against two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Those games put an end to their win streak, and I think it will be hard for the Raptors to recover since they are playing in a back-to-back situation. Now Toronto has to face a Pistons team that is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against Atlantic division opponents. Detroit is coming off a strong defensive performance last night, holding New York to just 89 points. If not for a rare poor shooting performance it is a game the Pistons would have won. They should have no problem bouncing back against this Toronto team that is surrendering 99.3 points per game at home this season. The Raptors are scoring a mere 91.4 points per game over their last five games, and their poor defensive play will cost them tonight. The Pistons come into this matchup scoring 99.3 points per game on the road. This game fits into a very profitable system for a play on Detroit. You should take road underdogs like the Pistons after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, and they have won 25 to 40 percent of their games in the season. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers are undervaluing, and it has led to a 162-102 (61%) record against the spread. |
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01-03-14 | New Orleans Pelicans -3 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 95-92 | Push | 0 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on New Orleans Pelicans -
The Pelicans are an easy call in this game. The Celtics lack the offensive firepower it will take to keep pace with this New Orleans team, and Boston has struggled to keep up with oddsmaker |
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12-13-13 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -3.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
5* Heavy Hitter on Golden State Warriors -
The Golden State Warriors have an explosive offense, and against a horrible defensive team like the Rockets I think they are poised to put a big number on the scoreboard. Combine that with a defense that plays exceptionally well at home and the Warriors become a strong value play. Golden State is 7-2 straight up on home games, while the Rockets are just 5-5 on the road. The Warriors are averaging 104.8 points per game at home this season. They should score at-will on a Houston defense that has allowed 109.5 points per game on the road. This is also a revenge game for the Warriors. They were crushed when playing at Houston last week, and this time they have the benefit of playing host. I think they get their revenge with a strong first half, which is something that was missing the last time these teams met. In the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams the favorite has a 9-4 ATS record. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Pacific division teams, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Golden State had yesterday off, so they should be well prepared for Houston. The Rockets on the other hand played last night in a losing effort against Portland. With the rest profiles favoring Golden State I think they get a big win in this game. |
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12-13-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 209.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
5* Pacific Division Total of the Month on Suns/Kings UNDER
The total on this game has been set far too high. The Kings only average 98.8 points per game, and they should struggle against a Suns defense that is playing with two days of rest. Sacramento is also playing with a day off, and with both teams being rested I think both defenses will play well tonight. Phoenix has allowed just 99.9 points per game this year. Nothing about this game indicates that either team is going to be able to exceed their scoring average, or end up allowing more than their defensive average for points against. The total on this game reflects a potential shootout, but the numbers say this game will be a defensive battle. The under is a perfect 9-0 when Sacramento is on the road and coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more. It is also 15-5 when Phoenix is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This matchup fits into a system to play the under when a team like Phoenix is facing a division opponent and they are coming off a road win against a division rival. This system is 66-30 to the under for the last five seasons. You should also play the under when the total is 200 points or more and there is a well rested team like Phoenix that is playing four or less games in the last 10 days, and have won between 51% to 60% of their games on the season. This system is 96-52 (65%) in favor of the under for the last five seasons. |
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12-07-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz OVER 193 | Top | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Jazz/Kings OVER
The total for this game is set much lower than it should be. Neither of these teams has played well defensively this season, and they are both capable of putting up big numbers on the offensive end of the court. The Sacramento Kings are allowing 102.2 points per game on the road this season. The Jazz get a big boost in offensive production on their home court, and against a soft Kings defense I think they will more than account for their half of the points needed to send this game over the total. The Kings lack of success this year has not come from a lack of scoring. They are averaging 97.1 points per game, and they have a great opportunity to build on that number against a Jazz defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game. Utah's defense has been soft regardless of venue, so the fact that Sacramento is on the road should not slow them down in this matchup. This matchup fits into a system to play the over when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points, when a team like Utah has won less than 25% of their games, they are coming off a road loss against a division rival, and they are playing a team with a losing record. This system is 38-11 (78%) in favor of the over. Expect a shootout between two bad teams because neither have played well on the defensive end of the court. |
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12-06-13 | Utah Jazz +11.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 98-130 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Utah Jazz +
The Portland Trailblazers have been playing at an unsustainable level. They are a team that is nowhere near as good as their 16-3 record. There is a lot of value on Utah as a double-digit underdog in this game. The Trailblazers have not been a strong defensive team, allowing an average of 99.9 points per game. They have posted a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record. The Jazz have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games. They are playing a lot better recently, winning three of their last five games straight up. Utah has shot over 50 percent from the field in two of their last three games, and I like their chances to keep this game close considering how well the team is playing right now. This matchup fits into a very profitable system. You should play against favorites of 10 points or more when they have three consecutive wins, and a winning overall record on the season. This system identifies teams that oddsmakers overvalue, and it has resulted in a 125-84 (62%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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12-04-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 207 | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
5* Total Dominator on Mavericks/Pelicans OVER
The total on this game is much lower than it should be given the way these teams have been playing recently. In their last five games, the Pelicans are averaging 109.8 points per game. They should have no problem putting up another big number tonight against a Mavericks defense that is allowing 102.4 points per game on the road. The Mavericks should also score a lot of points in this game. New Orleans is allowing 101.9 points per game this season, and they have done so against opponents whose offensive average is just 97.7 points per game. The Dallas Mavericks come into this game scoring 103.7 points per game, and with the Pelican's complete lack of defense they have a very good chance to improve on that number today. This matchup fits into a system to play the over when a team like New Orleans is coming off two consecutive road wins by five points or less, and they are playing in the first half of the season. The over has a 40-11 (78%) record in the last 51 games fitting into this scenario. In the last nine head-to-head meetings between these teams being played in New Orleans the over has a 7-2 record. I expect tonight's matchup to be another offensive showcase sending this game over the total. |
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11-25-13 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies +2 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies +
After a slow start this season the Grizzlies have really turned things on recently. They have won three of their last four games coming into today's matchup with Houston. They have an extra day of rest over the Rockets, and that gives them a big advantage in this game. Defensively, Houston has struggled on the road this year, allowing 113.8 points per game. The Memphis defense has been tough, allowing just 96.3 points per game against opponents whose offensive average is over 100 points per game. The Grizzlies should also dominate the turnover margin in this game. They have just 14 turnovers per game compared to 18 from the Rockets. With the better defense, and more efficient offense I think the Grizzlies take this game at home. The Houston Rockets are 3-13 ATS over the last three seasons when playing in a road game against a division opponents. They face a Memphis team that is 27-13 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. In head-to-head matchups between these teams, the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Rockets are 0-5 the last five games played in Memphis and 3-7 in the last 10 meetings overall. |
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11-16-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 180.5 | Top | 94-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Pacers/Bulls UNDER
With or without Derrick Rose, this total is set far too high. The Indiana Pacers have a great defense. They have held opponents to just 83.7 points per game this season. They are allowing 38.6% from the field, and have played just as good on the road as they do at home. Indiana has gone under the total in eight of their nine games this season. The Chicago Bulls are also solid defensively. They have allowed 78.3 points per game at home, and 89.4 points per game overall this season. The Bulls have given up a 35.4% shooting percentage from the field. What makes this under even more likely is the fact that neither of these teams has been great offensively. The Pacers score 95.9 points per game this season, while the Bulls average 91.7 points per game at home. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when a team like Indiana is off a home blowout win by 20 points or more and playing an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more. This system is 96-48 in favor of the under. The Bulls have also gone under the total in five of their last six games. |
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11-08-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Washington Wizards UNDER 197 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Wizards UNDER
The total on this game has been set far too high. First of all, the Brooklyn Nets are the better team and they will control the pace of this game. Washington has done a lot of scoring this season, but it has come at an unsustainable level. Against a good team like Brooklyn I don't think they will be able to match there average of 102 points per game at home. Brooklyn is not a fast paced offense. They average just 90 points per game on the road. They know they will need to control the pace of this game and turn it into a defensive battle rather than a shootout. The Nets have an extra day of rest over the Wizards and should be able to prevent their opponents from continuing to shoot 50% from the field. The under is 7-3 in Brooklyn's last 10 games against a team with a losing record. It is also 35-15-1 in Washington's last 50 games following a straight up win. In the last five head to head meetings between these teams the under has a 4-1 record, and a 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings. Expect a strong defensive performance from the Nets, and with their offense struggling on the road this game should easily stay under the total. |
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11-01-13 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards OVER 198.5 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
5* Total Dominator on 76ers/Wizards OVER
We learned two things in Philadelphia's season opener. First of all their offensive scoring potential is much improved after the overhaul this team went through in the offseason. They put up 114 points in that home opener against Miami. They also showed us that there is going to be a learning curve while these players learn how to play together. The defense allowed 110 points, and the team had 18 turnovers. It is a very similar story for the Wizards. The managed to score 102 points in their season opener, which was played on the road. With this matchup against Philadelphia being their first home game of the year, I expect the crowed to be fired up and the Wizards to put on an offensive show. Dating back to last season the over is 7-1 in Washington's last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents. It is also 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. It is 15-5 in home games when Washington is coming off a road loss over the last two seasons. The 76ers are also trending towards the over, posting a 51-31 record to the over against Southeast division opponents. |
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10-30-13 | Indiana Pacers v. New Orleans Pelicans +2 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +
It is early in the season so there is very little chance that the conditioning levels are where head coaches want them to be. That spells trouble for the Pacers because they are playing on back-to-back nights. The Pelicans will be the fresh and rested team with home court advantage so getting two points is a gift from the oddsmakers. The Pelicans made some quality moves in the offseason so they should be a much better team this year. Jrue Holiday is an All-Star player and a matchup nightmare for the Pacers. Combine that with the fact that they will have a healthy Eric Gordon and the Pacers should be on upset alert. Gordon is an undervalued talent that has played in just 51 games over the last two seasons. Gordon averaged 22.3 points per games with the Clippers in the 2010-11 seasons. The Pacers have been given too much credit based on last year's postseason performance. They looked soft when closing out the game against Orlando last night and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. The Pelicans are a great team to back based on their rest profile. When they have time to rest and prepare for an opponent (three or more days) they have posted a 13-4 ATS record in their last 17 games. |
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06-13-13 | Miami Heat +1 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 109-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
5* Finals Game of the Year on Miami Heat
The Miami Heat are a team that plays better when their backs are up against the wall. We have seen it throughout the playoffs in the series against Indiana and now against San Antonio. They have not lost back to back games since the beginning of the season. The Spurs may struggle without Tony Parker if he is unable to play due to a nagging leg injury. The Heat have now seen San Antonio |
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05-28-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5 | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* Total Playoff Game of the Year on Heat/Pacers UNDER
Indiana made the mistake of letting the Heat control the pace of the last game and it cost them. I don |
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05-26-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 182.5 | Top | 114-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
5* Total Dominator on Pacers/Heat UNDER
The Indiana Pacers have the second best defense in the NBA. They are playing on their home court for today |
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05-22-13 | Indiana Pacers +8 v. Miami Heat | Top | 102-103 | Win | 100 | 36 h 54 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on Indiana Pacers +
The oddsmakers are not giving much respect to arguably one of the best defenses in the league this season. Indiana has not allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or more from the field in over a month coming into this game. Miami did not look good in their opener against Chicago and with the Heat not having played in a week I expect them to come out a little sluggish in this matchup too. The Pacers defense has held opponents to an average of 89.4 points per game in the playoffs on 41.6% shooting from the field. This is a defense that plays just as good on the road as they do at home holding opponents to a mere 91.6 points per game. While the Pacers may not have a high scoring offensive unit, they should certainly not have any problems staying within 8 points against a Miami defense allowing almost 95 points per game at home. Indiana is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when they are playing on 3 or more days of rest. The extra rest afforded to the Pacers will prove to be very beneficial to an already stout defense. Expect the Pacers to come out strong and the defense to keep this game close until the end. |
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05-10-13 | San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
5* LATE INFO INSIDER on Spurs +2.5
There is no way San Antonio should be an underdog coming into this game. You should always play on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 like San Antonio when they are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite, and they are a well-rested team playing 3 or less games in the last 10 days. This system is 24-6 (80%) ATS. The Spurs have no problem winning games on the road. They posted a 25-18 straight up record and average 101.9 points per game away from home. Defensively San Antonio is holding opponents to 96.5 points per game and it is that defense that will be the difference maker in today |
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05-06-13 | Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs -8.5 | Top | 127-129 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -
The Spurs may not have the flash and pizzazz that that NBA fans want to see, but the bottom line is they know how to win ball games. The Spurs have a 37-6 record at home and they average 104.2 points per game, enough to keep up with any team left in the postseason. The Spurs are facing one of the most overrated teams still in the playoffs which means this game is going to be a blowout. Golden State may average 101.1 points per game on the road, but their defense allows 103.2 points per game. They have one of the worst road records for any playoff team at 20-24 straight up. The San Antonio defense has held opponents to 93.9 points per game and their average margin of victory at home is over 10 points. San Antonio is 32-15 ATS over the past two seasons when playing against a team winning 51% to 60% of their games. In the second half of the season that number improves to 21-9 ATS. Golden State on the other hand is 15-28 ATS in the second half of the season against teams making 36% or more of their 3 point attempts over the last 3 seasons. These trends combined for a record of 81-39 (68%) ATS. |
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05-04-13 | CHICAGO GM7 v. BROOKLYN GM7 UNDER 182 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Bulls UNDER
With the series between these teams being tied at 3-3 I expect both coaches to be making defensive adjustments coming into game 7. You should always play the under when the total is between 180 to 189.5 points when the playoff series is tied and both teams have a winning record. This system is 34-14 (71%) to the under throughout the last 5 seasons. Both of these teams are solid defensively with the Bulls holding opponents to 93.4 points per game and the Nets holding opponents to 94.6 points per game on their home court. The fact that one of these teams will be eliminated after tonight |
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04-26-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 183.5 | Top | 90-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
5* Total Dominator on New York/Boston OVER
The first two games between these teams have been a bit of a statistical anomaly. It is unlikely that Boston will continue to shoot 39.25% like they have so far. New York has shot well below their 44.7% average going 64-155 shooting 41.29% in the playoffs. With the Celtics averaging 47.7% at home they should have no problem putting more points on the board for today's game. You should always play on the over when one team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent that scored 80 points or less in two straight games. This system is 46-20 (70%) to the OVER. The reason this particular situation results in such a high percentage of games going over the total is because teams will make offensive adjustments when they are struggling to score while the oddsmakers are forced to lower lines to match scoring trends. Defensively neither team has been great this season. The Knicks are allowing 97.4 points per game when playing on the road while Boston has allowed 96.5 per game. The change in venue is just the spark these teams need to start putting points on the board and because of their poor shooting to start this series the oddsmakers have been forced to set this total much lower than it should be. |
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04-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 179.5 | Top | 82-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Memphis UNDER
The Grizzlies are known for their defense and physical play in the pain. Playing at home with rest should help their defense step up the level of play in the post season. Memphis is 12-1 (92%) to the under when playing 4 or less games in a 10 day span this season. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 179.5-189.5 points in a game involving two teams holding opponents to 43.5-45.5% shooting and the road team is a good ball handling team averaging 14.5 or less turnovers per game against an average pressure defense that forces 14.5-16.5 turnovers. This system is 41-22 (65%) over the last 5 seasons. The last two games have gone over the total because the Clippers have been able to shoot an average above 50% from the field. A change in venue is more than enough to slow the Clippers down and the Grizzlies are not a team that lights up the scoreboard at home averaging just 93.2 points per game. The under is the value play in a game that should end up being a defensive battle. |
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04-24-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 186.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs OVER
The first game in this series stayed easily UNDER the 191 total that was set and in the second to last regular season game the teams played well UNDER the posted total of 193. However, dropping this total down to 186.5 is an over-adjustment by the odds makers as I think you will see both teams play better offensively here tonight. The Lakers are giving up 46.3% from the floor on the road and 38.3% from 3-point range while San Antonio shoots 49.4% from the floor and 38.3% from deep at home. The Lakers shoot 45.8% from the floor while the Spurs allow 44.2%. The fact that both teams shot 41.1% or worse the last two times these two teams met and have hit less than a third of their 3-point attempts means it's time for some regression back to the mean. The Lakers are 10-2 for the OVER this year when taking to the road to face a team that outscores their opponents by 3+ ppg. This one goes OVER the low total here tonight. |
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04-23-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets -8 | Top | 131-117 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Denver Nuggets -
Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, having won 24 of their last 27 games. That puts them in a favorable situation as you want to play on favorites that have won at least 20 of their last 25 games who are winning between 60-75% of their games on the season. These teams have gone 63-35 ATS (64.3%) over the last five seasons. The Nuggets are 15-6 ATS when playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. This is a good matchup for Denver as they are 17-6 ATS against teams who make 36% or more of their 3-point attempts the second half of the last two seasons (Golden State hits 40.3%) and 19-9 ATS against teams who score 99+ points per game this year (the Warriors put up 101.1 ppg). When you look at how each team has done at the pay window recently you'll notice the Warriors have been cashing tickets while the Nuggets have been costing their backers money. Don't worry as both teams are quick to buck the trends. Golden State is just 2-10 ATS on the road after covering two or more straight games this year while Denver is 11-2 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread this year. I'll take Denver. |
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04-21-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs -8 | Top | 79-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -
The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league, even if they have had some injury problems the second half of the season, and that has spelled trouble for the Lakers. LA is just 9-20 ATS the last two years against teams with a winning percentage of above 70% and they are 24-43 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg. San Antonio on the other hand takes care of business against teams they should beat, going 10-1 ATS at home the last two years against teams winning between 50% & 60% of their games. You also want to take favorites of between 3.5 to 9.5 points who score 102+ points per game against a defense that gives up between 98-102 ppg after allowing 105 or more in two straight. These teams are 62-32 (66%) since 1996. The Spurs coasted into the playoffs, losing their last three games and seven of their last 10. That has just given us a couple of points of value as expectations are lower. The Lakers spent a lot of energy just to get into the playoffs and I think that will spell a letdown tonight. |
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04-20-13 | Boston Celtics v. New York Knicks UNDER 189.5 | Top | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 189.5
I don't expect a lot of points in this game tonight, largely due to how both teams will ratchet up the defensive intensity. Last year Boston scored 89.5 while holding opponents to 88.5 in their 20 playoff games. Neither team is a slouch on defense to begin with as the Knicks are giving up just 94 points per game at home and the Celtics allow just 96.7 ppg overall. The last three times these two teams have squared off the game has gone UNDER the total. The other thing I like about the UNDER here is that New York is getting Tyson Chandler and Marcus Camby back for this one. Those two guys will only solidify the Knick defense and make it more difficult for Boston to score. The last five games for Boston have gone over the total which has given us inflated this number for us a little bit and it's too good of value to pass up on. New York is 8-0 for the UNDER at home against teams making 46% of more of their shots in the second half of the last two seasons. |
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04-14-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 196 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Spurs/Lakers UNDER
San Antonio has been trending heavily towards the under in recent games. They have gone under the total is 7 of their last 10 games. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when you have a team like San Antonio that is outscoring their opponents by an average of 6 or more points per game when playing on Sunday. This system is 167-91 (65%) over the last five seasons. The Lakers have gone under at a rate of 10-1 in their last 11 home games when playing against a team with a winning road record. They are also 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games played on Sunday. These teams have a strong head to head history of getting into a low scoring battle. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 games played at Los Angeles and it is 20-7 the last 27 meetings overall. These angles are a combined 42-11 (79%) to the under. With the Lakers fighting to keep that 8th spot in in the Western Conference playoffs race I expect to see them really step it up defensively. Their defense certainly plays much better at home than they go on the road holding opponents to 3.6 points per game less than their overall average. The offense does not get much of a boost with just 6 tenths of a point in increased scoring production when playing at home. |
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04-12-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Indiana Pacers -5.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Pacers -
The Nets have picked up two wins over the Pacers this season but we should see a completely different result tonight. In the last game between these teams the Pacers shot 34.4% from the field and 22.7% on three point attempts. That anomaly is very unlikely to take place again since the Pacers have averaged 43.6% shooting at home and the Brooklyn defense is not overly talented. You should always play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Pacers when they are playing in a double revenge situation following two straight losses to their opponent when that same opponent is coming off an upset win over a division rival. This system is 44-17 (72%) ATS. The Pacers have are solid from their home court sitting on a 30-9 straight up record. They are playing with an extra day of rest over the Nets in today |
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04-10-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 204.5 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Spurs/Nuggets UNDER
This game falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and one team, in this matchup it is San Antonio, has gone under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games and they are winning 60-75% of their games on the season playing another team with a winning record. This system is 38-14 (73%) to the under throughout the last five seasons. The Spurs are 6-0 to the under in their last 6 consecutive road games and they are 5-1 to the under when playing against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season. They are facing a Nuggets team that is 5-1 to the under in their last 6 home games and 4-1 to the under at home against teams with a winning record on the road. These team specific trends are a combined 20-3 (87%) to the under this season. San Antonio is very solid defensively and they have held opponents to an average of 96.2 points per game this season. They are playing exceptionally well lately holding opponents to just 92.2 points per game in their last 5 games. It is unfortunate for Spurs fans, but the offense is not performing well over that same time span. They are averaging that same 92.2 points per game offensively. They face a Denver defense that has held opponents to 97.7 points per game. The Spurs will be one of the better defensive units the Nuggets have faced on their home court so it is unlikely they will reach their typical scoring average which makes the under a no brainer in this game. |
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04-09-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Golden State Warriors -6.5 | Top | 89-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Golden State Warriors -
The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing against a team winning 60% or more of their home games this season. Golden State is an impressive 26-12 at home this year. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss and they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing straight up record. Minnesota is 29-47 this season and they are an embarrassingly bad 10-27 when playing on the road. When playing at home the Warriors are scoring 101.4 points per game and holding opponents to 97.2 points per game. They should be able to beat their averages with ease against a Timberwolves team that allows 100.6 on the road while scoring only 95.2 points per game. The Warriors are hot coming into this game averaging 104.4 points per game in their last five games. They have shot just under 50% from the field while holding opponents to 45.6% shooting. In the last matchup between these teams the Warriors picked up a one point win on the road at Minnesota. A change in venue should be more than enough to cover the -6.5 point line set for today |
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04-06-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 193 | Top | 97-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* Total Annihilator on Hawks/Spurs UNDER
The Hawks offense has been struggling on the road. They average 95.9 points per game and they will have their hands full against a San Antonio defense that has held opponents to 93.7 points per game at home. The Atlanta Hawks are 4-0 to the under in their last four games overall and they are 5-1 to the under following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. They are playing in a back to back situation which also favors the under at a rate of 10-3 the last 13 games playing with no rest. The Spurs have also gone under the total in their last 4 games and they are 5-0 to the under in their last 5 games against Southeast division teams. San Antonio is 13-3 to the under in their last 16 games following a straight up loss this season. In head to head matchups between these teams the under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 games played at San Antonio. The Spurs defense has played extremely well at home. The offense has been struggling recently averaging only 93.2 points per game in their last five games. All signs point to this game ending with a low score. |
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04-05-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +8 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on Phoenix Suns +
Golden State is coming into this game with a 3-10 ATS record in their last 13 road games and a 3-8 ATS record in their last 11 games following a straight up win. Golden State is also 0-9 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The Golden State defense has been the biggest problem when playing on the road. The Warriors are allowing 102.8 points per game while averaging 99.9 in scoring. In head to head meetings between these teams the home team is 6-2 over the last 8 games. The Warriors have not won more than two consecutive games since February and their poor play on the road may prevent them from picking up that third win today. Phoenix has held opponents to 97.1 points per game and they have covered two of their last three games when playing at home. In the last matchup between these teams the Warriors pulled off a 10 point victory on their home court. Considering we have a change in venue and the oddsmakers have left the line the same the Suns have become the value play in this rematch. Phoenix shot 53% from the three point line in the last game and the soft Golden State defense playing on the road should make for an easy cover for the Suns. |
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04-03-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 197 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Hornets/Warriors UNDER
Golden State has gone under the total in five of their last seven games. They are 5-0 to the under in their last 5 games against Southwest Division teams and they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the season. They are well rested coming into this game so there should not be any tired legs on the defensive end of the court. The Hornets are 7-3 to the under in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days of rest. The extra rest for both teams should help improve their defensive numbers. Golden State is allowing 97.4 points per game at home while New Orleans is allowing 97.6 points per game. The Hornets defense has been better in their last five games holding opponents to 94.8 per game. The style of play from these teams indicates this game should be low scoring. The last time these teams met was back on March 18th and the total was 196 points with the teams scoring a combined 165 points in a 93-72 game. Both teams are playing well right now with the Hornets winning four of their last six and Golden State winning five of their last seven. These recent win streaks have been because of solid defensive performances. |
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03-18-13 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189 | Top | 105-103 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Heat/Celtics UNDER
Miami is 8-1 to the under in their last 9 games when playing without rest and they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 road games. When playing on the road against a team with a winning home record, the Heat are 5-2 to the under in their last 7 games. In their last 5 matchups against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season the Celtics are 4-1 to the under. The last time these teams played the total reached 198 points, but that was only because they went to double overtime. The score at the end of regulation was 174 points in that game. It is unlikely these teams will go to double overtime again making the under the value play in this matchup. Neither of these teams takes a lot of shots with both the Celtics and Heat averaging fewer than 80 field goal attempts per game. The Heat have gone under the total in three of their last four games and the Celtics defense has been solid at home holding opponents to 42.6% shooting. The style of play for these teams makes the under a no brainer. |
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03-16-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Washington Wizards OVER 189.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer Wizards/Suns OVER
You should always play the over in a game involving two teams averaging 92-98 points per game after one of those teams has allowed 105 points or more in three straight games. The Suns gave up 108 to Denver, 111 to Houston and 107 to Atlanta. This system is 45-18 (71.4%) over the last 5 seasons. The first thing a tired team gives up on is playing defense. This is why you should play the over when the total is 180-189.5 and one of the teams is off a road loss by 10 points or more and they are an extremely tied team playing their 3rd game in 4 days. This system is 120-77 (61%) over the last 5 seasons. The Suns are bad enough on defense allowing 104.6 points per game on the road and playing tired means this game should be an offensive show. |
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03-15-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 195 | Top | 80-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Grizzlies/Nuggets UNDER
A strong offensive performance from a team will impact the total line more than a strong defensive performance. This is why you should play the under when the total is between 190.5 and 199.5 after one team is coming off a game where they allowed 85 points or less like Memphis and their opponent has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 80-45 (64%) ATS. You should also play the under when one team is off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, like Denver, and their opponent is off a road win by 10 points or more. This system is 94-46 (67%) ATS. Both Memphis and Denver are trending towards the under. Denver has gone under the total in three of their last four games while Memphis has gone under in three of their last five games. The Grizzlies are a very defense oriented team. They are holding opponents to an average score of 89.4 points per game. Memphis is 17-7 to the under after allowing 85 points or less this season. They are one of the best teams in the league and should have no problem controlling the pace of this game. |
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03-08-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 204.5 | Top | 116-94 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Thunder UNDER
The Thunder have gone under the total in 4 of their last 6 games while the Bobcats have gone under in 10 of their last 13 games. Oklahoma may have the explosive offense but they are playing in a back to back situation and coming from a hard fought battle against the Knicks at New York. Charlotte is playing on a day of rest and the only three games in the last 13 that have gone over the total have come when the Bobcats were forced to play in a back to back situation. You should play the under in games involving a team allowing 103+ points per game on the season coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more. This system is 226-147 (60.6%) since 1996. You should also play the under in games where the total is greater than 200 and the road team, Oklahoma City, is averaging 102 or more points per game against a team that averages 92-98 points per game, after allowing 55 or more points in the first half in two straight games. This system is 37-12 (75.5%) to the under over the last five seasons. When teams are allowing a big first half they make defensive adjustments to ensure they do not fall behind early which also helps keep games under the total. |
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02-27-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Orlando Magic OVER 206 | Top | 125-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA TOTAL NO BRAINER on Kings/Magic OVER
You should play on the over when the game involves two average offensive teams scoring 92-98 points per game after one of those teams allowed 105 points or more in three straight games. In this matchup that team would be Sacramento and this system is 42-18 (70%) over the last five seasons. Sacramento has had a lot of foul trouble this season. When a team has a lot of fouls it makes sense that the game would go over the total. The clock is stopped and points are getting put on the board. Sacramento is 19-7 to the over vs. good free throw shooting teams that are making 76% or more of their attempts this season. Orlando is 15-4 to the over against up-temp teams that are averaging 83 or more shots per game in the send half of the season over the last three seasons. Both of these teams struggle defensively. Sacramento is allowing 105 points per game on the road while Orlando is allowing over 100 points per game at home. With both teams making a lot of shot attempts and neither team having very good numbers defensively the over is the no brainer in this game. |
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02-26-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 211 | Top | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer Mavs/Bucks UNDER
Both teams are coming off home losses with Milwaukee losing to Atlanta as a -4.5 favorite and Dallas losing to the Lakers as a -3 point favorite. You should play the under in a game where the total is over 200 and both teams are off an upset loss as a favorite and at least one of those losses came as a home favorite. This system is 86-52 (62.3%) the last 138 times the situation has occurred. The under is 5-0-1 in Milwaukee |
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02-06-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 202 | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Mavs/Blazers UNDER
We are getting some value in this line tonight because Dallas has been so bad defensively on the year, giving up 103.1 ppg. They just gave up 112 points in a 21 point loss to Oklahoma City, but teams like Dallas normally buckle down on that end of the floor after a bad loss. You want to play on teams that are giving up 103+ ppg on the season after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. These teams go UNDER at a pace of 223-145 (60.6%) since 1996. Dallas is actually allowing 4 ppg less at home than they do on the road, and their 101 ppg in Dallas is a little inflated from playing the likes of Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver, and Houston in a good portion of those games. Portland isn't going to keep pace with those teams when they only score 94.1 ppg on the road for the season. These two teams have met twice this season and this is the highest total yet. Last time they faced each other Dallas shot 50% and 53.5% from behind the arc, both teams shot 78.3% or better from the line, and they only managed to score 210 points. In the first meeting Dallas shot 61.5% from the floor and 50% from the 3-point line and scored 114. I don't think you can expect out of this world shooting numbers a third time in a row. |
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02-02-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 187.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Timberwolves/Hornets OVER
Minnesota has been playing some high scoring games lately. Both them and their opponents have scored 100+ in three of the last four games, including lats night's 100-111 loss to the LA Lakers. Minnesota is typically a low scoring team, but obviously they are pushing the tempo a little bit here recently. Plus, the Wolves are 13-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record this year. New Orleans has now allowed 100 or more points in seven of their last eight games after last night's 98-113 loss to Denver. They are 15-7 OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 this season and 12-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record. These two teams have met twice already this year with final scores of 113-102 and 92-104, both well over today's total. I just can't see these two teams deciding today is the day they want to play defense, so I think you'll see another final score in the 190's or even higher. A solid system supports our play that says to take the OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 and one tam is off a road loss by 10 points or more and playing their 3rd game in four nights. The OVER is 114-75 (60.3%) in this situation the last five years. |
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02-02-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks -6.5 | Top | 93-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
5* EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -
The Bulls are expected to be without Carlos Boozer today due to a hamstring injury, Kirk Hinrich to an arm injury, and Joakim Noah due to plant fascilitis. The injuries to those two forced Deng and Gibson to play all 48 minutes last night plus Robison and Butler both logged 40+. Now the Bulls have to fly down to Atlanta to face the Hawks on no rest and when you are banged up and playing on no rest that is a recipe for disaster. You think Atlanta isn't going to be up for this game? The Hawks were embarrassed by the Bulls last time these two teams faced each other on January 14th. The Hawks scored only 58 points and lost by 39 points. This team has played a lot better since then and has won four of their last five games, the only loss was by two points in New York v. the Knicks. I don't think Atlanta is going to take their foot off the gas tonight. This team will go all out for 48 minutes trying to embarrass Chicago like what happened to them last time. With Chicago so short-handed, this one has blowout written all over it. |
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02-01-13 | Washington Wizards +6.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 76-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA NO DOUBT ATS ROUT on Washington +6.5
I'll take the upstart Wizards tonight taking on a Memphis team in disarray. The Grizzlies had to get under the salary cap so traded Rudy Gay to Toronto. This team looked great at the start of the season and hopes were high they could make a serious playoff push. Then the trade rumors began and finally concluded with Gay being shipped out of town. Last night the team played in Oklahoma City and was beat up by 17 points. Now, they have to travel home on short rest to take on Washington. The Wizards are an under-valued team that recently won 10 straight games against the spread before back-to-back losses to the Kings and Sixers. Now it seems everyone is off their band wagon again and they are showing some value tonight. The Wizards are 7-5 over their last 12 games and it's no surprise why. John Wall returned 11 games ago and has provided this team a spark. He's average 6.5 assists per game and 14.1 ppg. You have two teams heading in opposite directions here tonight. Ride the team on the way up as Memphis will continue to struggle. You don't ever mess with the chemistry of a contender, as the Grizzlies are going to learn the hard way. |
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02-01-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 183 | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Pre-All Star TOTAL of the YEAR on Heat/Pacers UNDER
This should be a defensive battle tonight and I love the UNDER in a big way. Miami is coming off a 105-85 win at Brooklyn while the Pacers are coming off a 98-79 win over Detroit. Both teams played solid defense and I expect that to continue here tonight. Plus, that sets us up for a nice situation where you want to play the UNDER when a team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent of a blowout of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 202-132 (60.5%) in this situation since 1996. Where the total is 180-189.5 and a team that scores 99+ ppg is off a blowout win by 20 or more like Miami is, the UNDER is 105-57 (64.8%) since 1996. When teams play hard it normally leads to lower scoring games. When do teams play their hardest? Against other good teams and when the national spotlight is on them. Tonight this game will be on ESPN and both teams clock in with good records, Miami is 29-13 and Indiana is 27-19. Both want to make a statement to their opponents. Miami wants to show Indiana they aren't in their league while the Pacers want to prove they are. When you get two good teams playing on Friday nights the UNDER is 149-99 (60.1%) the last five seasons. The Pacers are allowing teams that score 97.3 ppg to put up only 86.7 ppg against them at home. Indiana is scoring only 91.8 ppg on the year against teams that allow 95 ppg. Miami on the other hand is way better at home than on the road. Away from South Beach this team is scoring 98.6 ppg against opponents scoring 97.7 but they are holding opponents to just under their season average. These two teams met in Indiana back on January 8th and the final score was 87-77 Indiana. I think the Pacers are going to slow this game way down again, and both teams take defense seriously. Points will be at a premium tonight as this game stays way under the total. |
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01-31-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 206 | Top | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Warriors/Mavs UNDER
Dallas has scored 104 or more points in nine straight games now and with Golden State's history of high scoring games we have a lot of value in the UNDER here tonight. Dallas has gone OVER in five straight games while Golden State has gone OVER in four in a row. To see how much padding that gives us here tonight you only have to go back to the last time these two teams met, when the total was set at 200. Six points is quite a jump for a same-season rematch game, and it's too much. Jackson has instilled a defensive philosophy into his young Warrior team. They are actually holding opponents to just 96.6 ppg at home this year, below their opponents average of 97.8 ppg. They are doing it by holding them to 42.1% from the floor and 30.9% from the 3-point line. The Warriors are a team that haven't had a lot of national TV exposure over the past few years, and I think these players are going to relish the chance to shine on TNT tonight. They will bring an all-out intensity on the defensive end of the floor and keep this score low. Take the UNDER! |
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01-30-13 | Chicago Bulls -1.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 104-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are out for some double revenge here tonight as Milwaukee has came into Chicago twice this year and pulled off the victory. You can bet Chicago is going to want to make a statement as to who the team to beat in the Central division is here tonight. Milwaukee is off a win last night in Detroit and is coming back for a back-to-back on their home floor, while Chicago has had a night off since their easy win over Charlotte so the rest factor is also with the Bulls. The Bucks have been hot lately winning five of six and are now just 2.5 games behind Chicago in the Central division race. You can bet they have the Bulls full attention and tonight Chicago is going to want to win this one badly to show everyone this is their division. A matchup advantage can be found at the free throw line, where Chicago is better than the league average at getting to the stripe and they hit 78% of their attempts. Milwaukee fouls more than most teams do so Chicago should get a chance at plenty of free ones here tonight. Take the Bulls as they pick up the win in Milwaukee. |
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01-19-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 204.5 | Top | 97-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Kings OVER
Two terrible defenses collide on Saturday night and I'm all over the OVER here. The Kings are allowing 103.3 ppg while the Bobcats are giving up 103.5 ppg. Opponents are shooting 45.8% against Sacramento and 46.1% against Charlotte (including 39% from behind the arc). The Bobcats have and some trouble scoring lately and that had caused the UNDER to hit in four straight games, but they broke out of their fun last night in Orlando to put up 106 points. The Kings had gone OVER in six straight games before siding with the UNDER in their last two, but last night they faced a tough Memphis team so it's easy to see why they struggled to score. That only led to some value here tonight with this total being set lower than it should be. The Kings are 24-14 OVER in all games this year, but 11-3 OVER when they are playing a team that forces 14 or fewer turnovers per game. A system that supports our play says that when the total is between 200-209.5 take the OVER when the road team has gone over the total by a combined 48 points or more in their previous 10 games. This system is 32-10 over the past five seasons. |
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01-16-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers +7 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 93-88 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Cleveland Cavs +
Cleveland has had a tough little road trip but I think they will play tough against Portland on Wednesday night. We are getting some value here because Cleveland has lost the first three games of their West Coast swing, but the Cavs have already faced the Blazers once this season and lost by a single point at home back on December 1st. The trouble with Portland is that they are playing on back-to-back nights, but they haven't really played well lately either. The Blazers lost at Golden State and at home to the Thunder the last two games. As I write this they are playing the Nuggets tough, but that game is being played in Denver. Tonight they will have to travel back to Portland, crossing nearly 1,200 miles and a time zone to play a bad team on Wednesday night. So, not only is the rest situation not working in Portland's favor, but they are also going to be in a letdown spot. Portland and Denver are battling it out for the second spot behind Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division and the Blazers currently sit only a half game up on Utah for the 8th and final playoff spot. They will have spent everything they have trying to win in Denver to get an edge in the standings and in any tiebreaker situation late in the year. Playing a non-conference team that is 9-31 isn't going to be high priority after that. Take the points with the Cavs tonight as heach coach Terry Stotts is just 66-93 ATS against teams with a losing record. |
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01-16-13 | Chicago Bulls -3 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 107-105 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA NO BRAINER on Chicago Bulls -
The Toronto Raptors are in a tough spot on Wednesday night as they will be flying from Brooklyn back home to face the Chicago Bulls. Toronto not only has to fly back home, but they are coming off a hard fought divisional game against the Nets. The Bulls are a tough matchup for Toronto because they do a good job of getting to the line, and they convert 79% of their free throw attempts. Toronto allows their opponents who average only 22 attempts per game to get to the line 27 times a contest against them, so expect Chicago to pile on some easy points Wednesday. Chicago's head coach Tom Thibodeau called out his players before the Atlanta game, saying their weren't putting for the effort the liked on defense. What did the Bulls do? They held Atlanta to just 58 points on Monday. If you don't think that carries over think again. Teams that have held opponents to less than 65 points are 52-39 ATS the following game. Toronto even played Chicago in this situation last March and Chicago went into Toronto and won by 12 points as 7.5 point favorite, holding Toronto to just 82 points. Thibodeau is 25-10 ATS on the road after a home win in Chicago and the Bulls are 22-11 ATS as a road favorite the last two years. I'll take Chicago as I think they win big up north. |
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01-15-13 | Indiana Pacers -7.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 103-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
5* NO LIMIT on Indiana Pacers -
Indiana had been rolling along, winning four in a row and 10 of their last 12 before a loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. They are going to want to right the ship tonight against the Bobcats, a team they just beat on Saturday night at home by eight points. There is plenty of value in this one as well since Indiana hasn't covered their last four times out. The Bobcats are going to have a tough time putting up points since they only average 95.5 ppg and Indiana is holding their foes to just 89.3 not he year. Indiana on the other hand should be able to get things going as the Bobcats allow 103.6 ppg. Back in early November Indiana traveled to Charlotte and lost by a single point. You can bet that point has been hammered home to them and they will come out hungry from the opening tip, and pull away fast. Indiana needs to take advantage of soft spots in their schedule to make up for their slow start, and they do that tonight. The Bobcats are 17-34 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons and 14-28 ATS at a home underdog. |
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01-14-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Sacramento Kings OVER 203.5 | Top | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Total Dominator on Kings/Cavs OVER
Sacramento's defense has been terrible all year long, but the last four games it's been something special. All four opponents have scored 113 or more points against them and this team hasn't let a team score under 94 points since way back on December 8th. It's no surprise that the Kings have gone OVER in five straight and 10 of their last 11 and I don't think they will have a problem eclipsing this number tonight either. Cleveland isn't a great offensive team, but they have their own struggles on the defensive side of the ball. On the road they are giving up 100.4 ppg on 47.9% shooting against teams scoring just 96.5 on 44.4%. This team has allowed 97 or more points in eight of their last nine games. The Kings are 39-21 OVER when the total is between 200-210 the last three seasons and 14-6 OVER at home this year. Sacramento is 23-11 OVER in non-confernece games the last two years and 15-7 OVER after a loss this year. Finally, since 1996 the Kings are 34-18 OVER at home when playing a team with a winning percentage 25% or lower. All sign point to a lot of scoring tonight, so take the OVER. |
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01-11-13 | Houston Rockets v. Boston Celtics UNDER 200.5 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Rockets/Celtics UNDER
These two teams met earlier this season in Houston and played to a final score of 101-89 and I expect another low scoring affair here tonight. Is it any surprise Boston has upped the defensive intensity over the last five games? Their defensive stopper, Avery Bradley, finally returned from injury and the whole team seems to be rejuvenated. The Celtics have won four in a row and are doing it with defense. Boston has allowed 75, 81, 96, and 79 in those four games and no opponent has shot better than 41.2%. Houston on the other hand, did not start their three game road trip as planned, losing in New Orleans by a final score of 79-88. The Hornets have been playing better defensively lately, but Boston is better on that end with Bradley than nearly every team in the league. Solid system backs our play that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 in non-conference games and one of the teams went UNDER by more than 24 points last game. This system is 51-18 for the UNDER the last five seasons. Plus, when two teams with a winning record face each other on Friday nights and the total is over 200, the UNDER has gone 90-50 over the past five years. |
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01-09-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Bulls/Bucks UNDER
Milwaukee fired coach Scott Skiles and then went out and scored 108 points against the Phoenix Suns last night, so some might think a change of philosophy sparked the offense. In reality it was more just hot shooting as the team shot 9-of-17 from behind the 3-point line. Obviously they can't keep up that pace no matter who is coaching. The Bulls recent win was a 118-92 spanking of Cleveland that was uncharacteristically high scoring for them. Instead their previous four games they didn't allow their opponent to score more than 94 points, while not scoring more than 96 themselves. On their home floor Chicago is allowing just 89.8 ppg and 42.5% shooting. The two games these two teams have played this year have both gone UNDER the number. Both games were played back in November with final scores of 93-92 and 93-86. Chicago will want to revenge that home loss on 11/26 and to do that they know defense is their best way to do that. Look for a slow pace game controlled by the Bulls for an easy UNDER here tonight. |
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01-05-13 | Golden State Warriors +6 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 89-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on the Warriors +6 over the Clippers
Golden State beat the Clippers the first time around by a final score of 114-110 so this team should be confident they can go into LA and do it again tonight. Add in the fact that Golden State just beat them on Wednesday night at home and you can see why we like the matchup. Some might consider the Clippers as motivated to revenge the early season loss, but that is more of a myth than reality in the NBA. In fact, teams with a winning record that are favorites of 3.5-9.5 points revenging two straight losses where opponents put up 100 or more are just 42-78 ATS the last 5 seasons. There aren't many teams playing better than the Warriors right now and they are doing it against some stiff competition. They blew out the Bobcats back on 12/21 at home, then took the Lakers to the wire in Steve Nash's return to the lineup. A four game winning streak quickly followed with an 11 point win in Utah, a 7 point win over the Sixers, 18 points over the Celtics, and the 21 point beating they handed the Clippers. LA is struggling after their long winning streak, losing by 14 at Denver and by 21 at Golden State. They have to play their cross town rival Lakers on Friday night and you know they are going to go all out for that game on ESPN. Don't plan on them having this game circled against the Warriors tonight even with Golden State beating up on them a few days ago. This is a tough spot for the Clippers. This will be the team's fourth game in five nights and seventh in their last ten. The rest situation is brutal for LA right now as they haven't had more than one day off since 12/12. The Warriors take advantage and cover here tonight. |
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01-01-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Hornets +3.5 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on New Orleans Hornets +3
This is a tough scheduling spot for Atlanta. They are in the dreaded position of playing their fourth game in five nights, playing back-to-back against Cleveland and Indiana, having a night off, then playing in Houston last night on New Year's Eve. They didn't look good against the Rockets, getting beat down by a superior team. Obviously New Orleans isn't a good team as they clock in at 7-23 on the year, while Atlanta is 19-10, but the Hornets do have two wins in their last three games and scored 97 or above in each. Since Atlanta has given up 100 or more in three of their last four, I think the Hornets are going to put enough points on the board to pick up the win here on New Year's Day. The public is going to look at this matchup and see the Hawks won by 22 down in New Orleans last year, but this team has improved and will look to that defeat as some motivation here today. The Hornets start fresh in 2013 and pick up the win over a Hawks team that is overvalued after winning four straight before last night. |
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12-31-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Houston Rockets OVER 206.5 | Top | 104-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Total No Brainer on Hawks/Rockets OVER 206.5
The way these two teams are playing right now the OVER makes a lot of sense to me. The Rockets and Hawks met way back on 11/2 in Atlanta and Houston won that game 109-102, so they've already played a high scoring game once this season. Houston has been an OVER lover's dream lately. Only once in their last six games have either the Rockets or their opponent failed to reach 120 points in a game. It's no surprise that every one of those games went over the total. The only game that failed to reach that mark was Minnesota on 12/26 which was a letdown spot after a big win in Chicago. The Hawks have been putting up some points too. Atlanta has gone OVER in three straight games and has eclipsed the 100 point barrier in each, they also have allowed 100 points in two of those three games. Both of these teams like to shoot the 3-ball and both are better at hitting the outside shot than they are at defending it. A lot of factors pointing towards the OVER tonight so I'll ride it. |
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12-29-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -4 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 124-94 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
5* No Limit Play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4
The Thunder were the hottest team in the NBA up until losing at Minnesota and at Miami in back-to-back games, then on Thursday night trailed most of the game to the Dallas Mavericks. This has setup the rare situation for OKC this season in which they have lost three straight games for their backers at the pay window. I expect that trend to end here tonight against the Houston Rockets. The Rockets on the other hand had won five in a row before dropping last night's contest to the San Antonio Spurs, but they still managed to cover giving them six straight at the pay window. This has caused them to be a little over-valued tonight against a team they can't match up with. The Thunder played Houston earlier this year and put up 120 points on them, which is no surprise since OKC is averaging 105 ppg. The Rockets can score the rock too, but they give up 102.5 ppg compared to the 96.8 ppg the Thunder allow. Coming off a high tempo game against the in-state rival San Antonio Spurs, I just can't see them having enough in the tank to keep it close against Oklahoma City. The Thunder on the other hand should be out to get back on track and pick up the easy win in Houston Saturday. |
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12-28-12 | Denver Nuggets -2 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 106-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Nuggets -2
Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, and I won't hesitate to take the one on the upswing. The Mavs have lost seven of eight while the Nuggets have won six of nine. Denver has gone 7-2 ATS in these games. This is a game the Nuggets had circled heading into the season as they lost last season's last three meetings with the Mavs by double digits. These defeats should fuel a very motivated performance from Denver. The Nuggets have been a terrific investment on the road where they are on a 60-41 ATS run. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Dallas, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Nuggets have a big edge on the boards. They average 56 rebounds per game while the Mavs average just 49. It is also significant that Dallas gives up an average of 55 boards per game. That's because the Nuggets are on a 66-42 ATS run versus poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by 3.0 or more boards per game. In addition, the Mavs are on a 10-25 ATS slide versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game. Take Denver. |